使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Good morning, and welcome to Sasol's interim results presentation for financial year 2026. My name is Tiffany Sydow from Investor Relations. And on behalf of the Sasol executive management team, we are pleased that you could join us today.
早安,歡迎參加 Sasol 2026 財政年度中期業績發表會。我是投資者關係部的蒂芬妮·西多。我謹代表 Sasol 高階主管團隊,很高興您今天能蒞臨現場。
With me is Simon Baloyi, our President and CEO of Sasol; and Walt Bruns, the Chief Financial Officer. The group executive management team is also present and will join for the market call, which follows directly after the presentations. A reminder that the presentation and all supporting financial materials are available on our website.
與我同台的有:Sasol 總裁兼執行長 Simon Baloyi;以及財務長 Walt Bruns。集團執行管理團隊也將出席,並將參加緊接著演講的市場電話會議。提醒各位,簡報和所有相關財務資料均可在我們的網站上查閱。
Turning to the agenda for today. A reminder that our strategy follows a two-pillar approach. Firstly, to strengthen our foundation business, where Simon will begin today's presentation with our business overview, then followed by Walt, who will take us through the financial performance for the half year. The second pillar addresses our pathway to grow and transform the business in the long term, where Simon will conclude and provide an update on our progress.
接下來進入今天的議程。再次提醒大家,我們的策略遵循雙支柱方法。首先,為了加強我們的基礎業務,西蒙將首先介紹我們的業務概況,然後沃爾特將帶領我們了解上半年的財務表現。第二部分闡述了我們如何實現業務的長期成長和轉型,西蒙將在此部分進行總結並介紹我們的進展。
A market call will then follow immediately after the presentation where you can submit your questions via the webcast or join in the teleconference facilities. A reminder that the presentation contains some forward-looking statements and more detail is reflected on the slide in front of you.
演講結束後將立即進行市場電話會議,您可以透過網路直播提交您的問題,或加入電話會議。請注意,本簡報包含一些前瞻性陳述,更多詳情請參閱您面前的投影片。
I would now like to hand over to Simon to commence his presentation. Thank you.
現在我將把發言權交給西蒙,讓他開始他的演講。謝謝。
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Good day, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We value your time. The business environment remains volatile and the challenges are here. Our priorities are clear, and our execution is improving.
大家好。感謝您今天蒞臨。我們珍惜您的時間。商業環境依然動盪,挑戰依然存在。我們的工作重點很明確,執行力也不斷提升。
Our strategy shared at Capital Markets Day in May 2025 remains unchanged to strengthen our foundation business while positioning Sasol to grow and transform. Today, I'll take you through the progress we are making on the journey, the areas where we're seeing traction, and where our focus lies for the second half of the financial year.
我們在 2025 年 5 月資本市場日上分享的策略保持不變,即加強我們的基礎業務,同時使 Sasol 實現成長和轉型。今天,我將帶大家了解我們在這一征程中所取得的進展,我們看到成效的領域,以及我們下半年的重點工作方向。
Let me start by framing the key themes for today. Firstly, safety. Nothing is more important than ensuring that every employee and every service provider returns home safely to their loved ones. While we are seeing encouraging improvements in leading indicators, the tragic fatality in September is a stark reminder that we are not yet where we need to be.
首先,讓我來概括一下今天的主要主題。首先是安全問題。沒有什麼比確保每位員工和每位服務人員安全回家與親人團聚更重要的了。儘管我們看到領先指標出現了令人鼓舞的改善,但9月發生的悲劇性死亡事件卻鮮明地提醒我們,我們還沒有達到應有的水準。
Secondly, operational delivery in Southern Africa. Our focus on coal quality, reliability and disciplined maintenance is starting to restore stability across the entire value chain. Thirdly, International Chemicals. The reset is progressing. Markets are, however, tougher than we anticipated, but the action within our control are delivering structural cost improvements and positioning the business for recovery.
其次,是南部非洲的營運交付。我們對煤炭品質、可靠性和規範維護的重視,正開始恢復整個價值鏈的穩定性。第三,國際化學品公司。重置正在進行中。然而,市場情況比我們預期的要嚴峻,但我們可控範圍內的措施正在帶來結構性的成本改善,並為業務復甦做好準備。
Fourthly, cash flow and balance sheet resilience. Despite challenging macros, we generated positive free cash flow by executing on the levers within our control. And finally, we continue to advance our Grow and Transform strategy in a pragmatic, value-accretive manner, which I'll cover towards the end of the presentation.
第四,現金流和資產負債表的穩健性。儘管宏觀經濟情勢充滿挑戰,但我們透過有效利用可控因素,實現了正的自由現金流。最後,我們將繼續以務實、增值的方式推進我們的成長和轉型策略,我將在演講的最後部分詳細介紹。
At Capital Markets Day, we made clear commitments to strengthen the foundation business. What matters now is delivery. I am pleased to say that we are delivering against most of those commitments. The destoning plant reached beneficial operation in December on plan and is already improving coal quality and supporting more stable operations at Secunda.
在資本市場日上,我們明確承諾加強基礎業務。現在最重要的是交貨。我很高興地說,我們正在履行大部分承諾。除石廠已於 12 月按計劃投入運營,並已開始提高煤炭質量,為塞昆達煤礦的穩定運營提供支援。
Our Southern Africa value chain cash breakeven price ended around USD53 per barrel, ahead of our full year target range of USD60 to USD55 per barrel. This reflects higher production and sales volume together with disciplined cost and capital management.
我們在南部非洲的價值鏈現金損益平衡價格最終約為每桶 53 美元,高於我們全年每桶 55 美元至 60 美元的目標範圍。這反映了更高的生產和銷售量,以及嚴格的成本和資本管理。
Given softer chemical pricing and a stronger rent outlook, we are maintaining our guidance range. In International Chemicals, adjusted EBITDA improved year-on-year despite challenging markets, supported by early benefits from self-help measures. While our self-help measures are progressing and will ramp up in the second half, we have revised our full year adjusted EBITDA and margin guidance, which I'll talk through in more detail shortly.
鑑於化工產品價格走軟和租金前景走強,我們維持原有的業績指引範圍。國際化工產業調整後 EBITDA 儘管市場充滿挑戰,但得益於自助措施帶來的早期效益,其同比有所改善。雖然我們的自救措施正在取得進展,並將在下半年加大力度,但我們已經修訂了全年調整後的 EBITDA 和利潤率預期,我稍後會詳細討論。
Net debt ended at USD3.8 billion, and our continued focus on cash generation and cash flow resilience remains central to our deleveraging pathway. Walt will unpack the key drivers in more detail. Finally, supporting the Grow and Transform pillar, we secured an additional 300 megawatts of renewable energy, bringing the total to more than 1.2 gigawatts on the path to 2 gigawatts by 2030. This reinforces an important point. We are focused on the value drivers. We understand the challenges, and we are executing with purpose.
淨債務最終為 38 億美元,我們持續關注現金流的產生和現金流的韌性,這仍然是我們去槓桿化過程的核心。沃爾特將更詳細地分析關鍵驅動因素。最後,為了支持「成長與轉型」支柱,我們獲得了額外的 300 兆瓦再生能源,使總裝置容量超過 1.2 吉瓦,朝著 2030 年達到 2 吉瓦的目標邁進。這印證了一個重要的觀點。我們專注於價值驅動因素。我們了解面臨的挑戰,並且正在有目的地執行。
Turning to safety. The fatality in September 2025 was unacceptable and deeply regrettable. Our investigation into this incident identified some gaps in risk awareness and inconsistent adherence to safety rules. In response, we have taken decisive action. This includes strengthening both leadership and personal accountability, reinforcing standards, intensifying our focus on high-risk activities and finally, improving service provider safety management. These actions are strengthening competence, rigor and ownership where it matters most, at the front line.
轉向安全方向。2025年9月發生的這起死亡事故是不可接受的,令人深感遺憾。我們對這起事件的調查發現,存在一些風險意識上的不足,以及對安全規則執行不一致的情況。對此,我們已採取果斷行動。這包括加強領導和個人責任,強化標準,加大對高風險活動的關注,以及最終改進服務提供者的安全管理。這些措施正在加強第一線人員的能力、嚴謹性和責任感,而這些正是最關鍵的。
While there's no room for complacency, we are encouraged by improvements in leading indicators, including fewer hospitalization and lost workday cases, lower injury severity and most importantly, no major process safety incidents over the past 18 months. Safety is the foundation of everything we do. We will continue to embody the learnings, strengthen our safety culture, and hold ourselves and our partners accountable to ensure that every person returns home safely every day.
雖然我們不能掉以輕心,但我們對一些領先指標的改善感到鼓舞,包括住院和誤工案例減少、受傷嚴重程度降低,最重要的是,過去 18 個月沒有發生重大製程安全事故。安全是我們一切工作的基礎。我們將繼續吸取經驗教訓,加強安全文化,並督促我們自身和合作夥伴承擔責任,以確保每個人每天都能安全回家。
I'll now touch on a few highlights of our financial performance. Despite a challenging macro environment, overall, team Sasol delivered a robust performance in the areas within our control. We improved margin realization, reduced cash fixed cost and optimize capital spend, whilst protecting reliability and integrity. Adjusted EBITDA for the group was lower year-on-year, reflecting weaker macro conditions. However, our cash flow levers were effective and free cash flow ended positive. This is exactly what we mean by disciplined delivery in a very challenging environment.
接下來我將重點介紹我們財務表現的幾個亮點。儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰,但總體而言,Sasol 團隊在我們可控的領域取得了穩健的表現。我們提高了利潤實現率,降低了現金固定成本,優化了資本支出,同時也保障了可靠性和完整性。集團調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期下降,反映出宏觀經濟環境疲軟。然而,我們的現金流控制措施是有效的,自由現金流最終為正。這正是我們所說的在極具挑戰性的環境中保持嚴謹的執行力。
Turning to the business updates. Let me first start with mining. As mentioned, the destoning plant reached beneficial operation on schedule and within budget. We are already seeing improvements in coal quality with average things now around 12%. External coal purchases remained elevated in the first half during the destoning plant ramp-up.
接下來是業務更新部分。首先讓我從採礦開始。如前所述,除石廠按計劃並在預算範圍內投入盈利運營。我們已經看到煤炭品質有所改善,平均水平目前約為 12%。在除石廠產能提升期間,上半年外部煤炭採購量維持在高位。
While coal purchases will continue in the second half to supplement our own production, it is expected to be lower than the first half and to normalize in financial year '27. The focus is now on firmly increasing our own production volumes, reducing external purchases and improving cost competitiveness in support of a more resilient value chain.
下半年我們仍將繼續購買煤炭以補充自身產量,但預計採購量將低於上半年,並在 2027 財年恢復正常。現在,我們的重點是穩步提高自身產量,減少外部採購,提高成本競爭力,以支持更具韌性的價值鏈。
Gas is an important part of the Southern Africa value chain and broader regional economy. The plateau extension projects are progressing well and remain on track to ensure a stable supply profile to financial year '28.
天然氣是南部非洲價值鏈和更廣泛的區域經濟的重要組成部分。高原擴建工程進展順利,並將繼續按計畫進行,以確保 2028 財年供應穩定。
In Mozambique, start-up delays at the CTT gas-to-power project have affected the timing of the PSA volumes. To manage this, approved sub gas arrangements are ensuring continued gas flows to South Africa while the CTT project progresses. Total gas volumes are unchanged. However, a revised gas production profile has deferred gas monetization. Together with a stronger rand-US dollar exchange rate, this has resulted in a PSA impairment.
在莫三比克,CTT天然氣發電專案的啟動延誤影響了PSA產量的交付時間。為了解決這個問題,已批准的天然氣供應安排確保在 CTT 項目推進期間繼續向南非輸送天然氣。氣體總量維持不變。然而,修訂後的天然氣產量曲線推遲了天然氣貨幣化進程。由於蘭特兌美元匯率走強,導致PSA資產減損。
We are working on optimizing the gas production profile through ongoing performance testing and potential infrastructure improvements in the coming months. Sasol's methane-rich gas bridging solution remains on track, while past applications for the period FY27 to FY30 submitted to NERSA for approval.
我們將在未來幾個月透過持續的性能測試和潛在的基礎設施改進來優化天然氣生產流程。Sasol 的富甲烷氣體橋接解決方案仍按計劃進行,而 2027 財年至 2030 財年期間的申請已提交給 NERSA 以獲得批准。
At the same time, we are developing longer-term gas optionality through LNG. We are working closely with our strategic partners to advance gas to power options. We are managing our gas portfolio deliberately, protecting near-term supply while keeping value-accretive options open to sustain profitability over time.
同時,我們正在透過液化天然氣(LNG)開發更長期的天然氣選擇方案。我們正與策略夥伴緊密合作,推動天然氣發電方案。我們正在有意識地管理我們的天然氣資產組合,在保障近期供應的同時,保持增值選項,以維持長期的盈利能力。
Across our Southern African business, we are seeing tangible progress in restoring performance. Secunda production increased by 10% year-on-year, supported by the absence of a phase shutdown, improved coal quality and gasifier availability. At Natref, operational performance also improved and the commissioning of the last low-carbon boiler supports reliability while advancing our emissions objectives. Commercially, we will continue to prioritize higher-margin fuel channels.
在我們的南部非洲業務中,我們看到業績恢復方面取得了實際進展。由於沒有階段性停產、煤炭品質提高以及氣化爐可用性,Secunda 的產量年增了 10%。在納特雷夫,營運績效也得到了提升,最後一台低碳鍋爐的投產提高了可靠性,同時也推動了我們的減排目標。在商業方面,我們將持續優先發展利潤率較高的燃料通路。
Following Prax SA interim business rescue, we stepped into the capacity and maintained stable Natref operations. This is to ensure that there is reliable supply to South Africa and OR Tambo Airport. Our priorities for the second half are clear: sustained reliability at our operations through disciplined maintenance and stable operation and leverage the increased capacity at Natref to optimize product placement and maximize value for the group.
在 Prax SA 進行臨時業務重組後,我們接手了業務能力,並維持了 Natref 的穩定營運。這是為了確保向南非和奧利佛·坦博國際機場提供可靠的電力供應。下半年的重點工作很明確:透過嚴格的維護和穩定的運營,確保營運的持續可靠性,並利用 Natref 增加的產能,優化產品佈局,為集團創造最大價值。
In Chemicals Africa, our focus is to ramp up sales supported by stronger production performance, while maintaining benchmark price levels in a softer global market.
在非洲化學品業務方面,我們的重點是透過提高生產效率來提升銷售額,同時在全球市場疲軟的情況下維持基準價格水準。
International Chemicals continues to execute on our recent priorities outlined at Capital Markets Day. As previously stated, EBITDA increased by 10% year-on-year despite challenging markets. Our margins came under pressure due to a softer global demand, higher feedstock costs and persistently elevated European energy prices. These conditions have weighed across the entire industry. However, delivery on the actions within our control is progressing well.
國際化工集團繼續推動我們在資本市場日上提出的近期優先事項。如前所述,儘管市場充滿挑戰,但 EBITDA 仍年增 10%。由於全球需求疲軟、原料成本上漲、歐洲能源價格持續高企,我們的利潤率面臨壓力。這些情況對整個產業都產生了影響。然而,在我們可控範圍內的行動進展順利。
Cash fixed costs declined by 6% year-on-year or 10% when normalized for exchange rates. Asset optimization and variable cost initiatives are starting to deliver benefits with most boring actions completed or nearing completion across the portfolio. Commercial excellence initiatives, including continued focus on value over volume are underway. While this takes time to flow through our earnings, we expect benefits to increase in the second half.
現金固定成本較去年同期下降 6%,依匯率調整後下降 10%。資產最佳化和變動成本控制措施開始產生效益,整個投資組合中大多數枯燥乏味的工作已經完成或接近完成。我們正在推行商業卓越計劃,包括繼續注重價值而非數量。雖然這需要一段時間才能體現在我們的收益中,但我們預計下半年收益將會增加。
Given the weaker-than-expected market conditions and unplanned JV ethylene cracker outage at the end of the last year, we have revised our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance from USD375 million to USD450 million. We also revised our margin outlook to a range between 8% to 10%.
鑑於市場狀況弱於預期,以及去年年底合資乙烯裂解裝置意外停產,我們將全年調整後 EBITDA 預期從 3.75 億美元調整至 4.5 億美元。我們也將利潤率預期調整為 8% 至 10% 之間。
Importantly, our reset phase extends beyond financial year '26. Innovation across the value chain and broader portfolio optimization initiatives are being assessed. These are aimed at further improving competitiveness. This, together with our current actions support our FY28 target of USD750 million to USD850 million EBITDA.
重要的是,我們的重置階段將持續到 2026 財年之後。正在評估價值鏈各環節的創新以及更廣泛的投資組合優化措施。這些措施旨在進一步提高競爭力。這一點,加上我們目前的行動,將支持我們 2028 財年 EBITDA 達到 7.5 億美元至 8.5 億美元的目標。
Sasol continues to make a meaningful contribution to society and the communities where we operate. In the past six months, we invested about ZAR200 million in social programs aimed at uplifting communities across various sectors and regions where we operate. We invest in multiple education initiatives to address the shortages of critical skills needed in the workplace. We spent around ZAR75 million on batteries, skills development and education initiatives. We continue to invest in community infrastructure in our neighboring communities.
Sasol 將繼續為我們營運所在地的社會和社區做出有意義的貢獻。在過去的六個月裡,我們投資了約 2 億蘭特用於社會項目,旨在提升我們營運所在的各個行業和地區的社區福祉。我們投資多項教育計劃,以解決職場所需關鍵技能人才短缺的問題。我們在電池、技能發展和教育項目上投入了約 7500 萬蘭特。我們將繼續投資於週邊社區的基礎建設。
For example, the upgrade to the Doane and Pande Health Centers in Mozambique will help strengthen healthcare delivery, benefiting over 25,000 community members. In South Africa, we've also supported the successful B20 and G20 events during 2025 with sponsorship and embedding resources to support the execution of the events. These initiatives reflect our belief that long-term value creation for shareholders is inseparable from positive social impact.
例如,莫三比克多安和潘德衛生中心的升級改造將有助於加強醫療保健服務,使超過 25,000 名社區成員受益。在南非,我們也透過贊助和提供資源支持,為2025年B20和G20高峰會的成功舉辦提供了支持。這些措施體現了我們的信念,即為股東創造長期價值與正面的社會影響力密不可分。
With that, I'll now hand over to Walt, who will unpack our financial performance.
接下來,我將把麥克風交給沃特,由他來分析我們的財務表現。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Simon. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today. I will take you through the financial performance for the first half of FY26 and how it reflects tangible delivery against the commitments as we set out in our Capital Markets Day.
謝謝你,西蒙。女士們、先生們,早安,感謝各位今天蒞臨。我將帶您了解 2026 財年上半年的財務業績,以及它如何反映了我們在資本市場日所做出的承諾的實際履行。
The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, and the earnings reflect the external pressures. What is important is that we respond on the levers that we control, tighter cost control, disciplined capital allocation, and better operational execution across the portfolio is strengthening our foundation business and showing up in improved cash flow generation in support of our deleveraging pathway.
宏觀經濟環境依然充滿挑戰,獲利情況也反映了外部壓力。重要的是,我們要利用我們能夠控制的槓桿,更嚴格的成本控制、更嚴謹的資本配置以及在整個投資組合中更好的運營執行,正在加強我們的基礎業務,並體現在現金流的改善上,從而支持我們的去槓桿化進程。
Turning to the macroeconomic environment. Volatility and uncertainty persisted through the first half of FY26. The Brent crude oil price was down 14% year-on-year and together with a stronger rand exchange rate resulted in a 17% decline in the rand oil price. The oil market remains in surplus with supply growth and inventory builds outpacing demand.
接下來談談宏觀經濟環境。2026財年上半年,市場波動和不確定性持續存在。布蘭特原油價格較去年同期下跌 14%,加上蘭特匯率走強,導致蘭特原油價格下跌 17%。石油市場持續供過於求,供應成長和庫存增加速度超過需求。
Given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, we expect oil price volatility to persist in the near term. The strengthened rand against the US dollar weighed on earnings given the dollar-linked nature of much of our pricing. While this created pressure on the income statement, the stronger closing rate provided balance sheet support by reducing the rand value of our US dollar-denominated debt.
鑑於地緣政治不確定性持續存在,我們預期短期內油價波動將持續。蘭特兌美元走強對我們獲利造成了壓力,因為我們的大部分定價都與美元掛鉤。雖然這給損益表帶來了壓力,但較強的最終匯率透過降低我們以美元計價的債務的蘭特價值,為資產負債表提供了支持。
Refining margins were a notable positive, supported by improved diesel differentials and stronger operational performance at Natref, helping to offset some of the oil price pressure in the fuels business.
煉油利潤率顯著提高,這得益於柴油價差的改善以及 Natref 營運績效的增強,從而有助於抵消燃料業務面臨的部分油價壓力。
Chemicals remain the more challenging part of our portfolio with continued global overcapacity, softer demand, and tariff uncertainty weighing on pricing and margins. While conditions remain subdued, the pace of decline is slowing. Selective end markets are stabilizing, and industry rationalization is accelerating, offering cautious optimism for recovery rather than near-term rebound.
化學品仍然是我們投資組合中最具挑戰性的部分,全球產能持續過剩、需求疲軟以及關稅的不確定性都對價格和利潤率構成壓力。雖然情況依然低迷,但衰退速度正在放緩。部分終端市場趨於穩定,產業合理化進程加快,為經濟復甦而非短期反彈帶來了謹慎樂觀。
Against this backdrop of continued macro pressure, our focus remains firmly on the levers within our control. Starting with volumes. We delivered 3% higher sales volumes in the first half of FY26, supported by improved production, while a better sales mix into higher-margin channels improved price realization. In the second half, the focus remains on sustaining volume delivery, while continuing to optimize channel mix as markets evolve.
在宏觀經濟持續承壓的背景下,我們的重點仍然牢牢放在我們可控的因素上。首先從音量說起。2026 財年上半年,在生產改進的支持下,我們的銷量成長了 3%,同時,向高利潤通路的銷售組合優化提高了價格實現率。下半年,重點仍是維持銷售量,同時隨著市場的發展繼續優化通路組合。
On costs, we have not only contained inflation, but reduced overall cash fixed cost by 2%, driven by lower labor cost and reduced external spend. We will continue the strict cost control into the second half, while also reducing external feedstock purchases.
在成本方面,我們不僅控制住了通貨膨脹,而且由於勞動成本降低和外部支出減少,整體現金固定成本降低了 2%。下半年我們將繼續嚴格控製成本,同時減少外部原料採購。
Capital expenditure was 43% lower than year-on-year, mainly due to the absence of a Secunda phase shutdown in the period, lower PSA spend in Mozambique, and reduced environmental compliance capital as these programs near completion. We are also optimizing our capital spend without compromising on safety or asset integrity.
資本支出比去年同期減少了 43%,主要原因是該期間 Secunda 階段沒有停產,在莫三比克的 PSA 支出減少,以及隨著這些項目接近完成,環境合規資本減少。我們也在優化資本支出,同時確保安全或資產完整性不受影響。
As a result, we have revised our full year capital guidance ZAR2 billion lower to ZAR22 billion to ZAR24 billion for the year. Importantly, the ZAR2 billion is not a deferral and not rolling over into later years. We saw a temporary increase in net working capital in the first half of FY26 due to a timing lag between the higher production and sales with opportunities available to reduce working capital prior to financial year-end.
因此,我們將全年資本預期下調 20 億蘭特至 220 億至 240 億蘭特。重要的是,這 20 億蘭特不是延期支付,也不會結轉到以後的年份。由於生產和銷售之間存在時間滯後,我們在 2026 財年上半年看到了淨營運資本的暫時性增加,但有機會在財政年度結束前減少營運資本。
On the balance sheet, liquidity headroom remains robust with more than USD4 billion available. We will continue to actively manage our balance sheet, including our debt maturity profile as we prioritize sustainable deleveraging.
從資產負債表來看,流動性空間仍充裕,可用資金超過 40 億美元。我們將繼續積極管理資產負債表,包括債務到期結構,同時優先考慮可持續的去槓桿化。
Finally, we have and will continue to execute our hedging program, which I will unpack further on the next slide. Hedging remains a key component of Sasol's approach to managing macroeconomic volatility. We have completed the FY26 hedging program with the FY27 program underway. Given prevailing market conditions, we have utilized a broader range of instruments to maintain appropriate downside protection while being mindful of cost and retaining upside participation.
最後,我們已經並將繼續執行我們的對沖計劃,我將在下一張投影片中進一步詳細介紹。對沖仍然是 Sasol 應對宏觀經濟波動的關鍵組成部分。我們已經完成了 2026 財年的避險計劃,2027 財年的計劃正在進行中。鑑於當前的市場狀況,我們利用了更廣泛的工具來維持適當的下行保護,同時注意成本並保持上行收益。
During the first half of FY26, foreign exchange losses, translation losses were largely offset by gains on derivative instruments, demonstrating that our hedging program is working as intended, especially in a stronger rand environment. For the second half of FY26, the oil price risk is hedged at an effective hedge cover ratio of 55% to 60% and an average floor of approximately $59 per barrel.
2026 財年上半年,外匯損失和折算損失基本上被衍生工具的收益所抵消,這表明我們的對沖計劃正在按預期發揮作用,尤其是在蘭特走強的環境下。2026 財年下半年,石油價格風險已透過有效避險覆蓋率達到 55% 至 60% 進行對沖,平均下限約為每桶 59 美元。
On the exchange rate, 25% to 30% of our rand-US dollar exposure has been secured primarily through zero-cost collar structures within a range of approximately ZAR18 to ZAR22. We plan to complete our FY27 hedging program by the end of FY26.
在匯率方面,我們 25% 至 30% 的蘭特兌美元風險敞口主要透過零成本領式選擇權結構來保障,範圍約為 18 至 22 蘭特。我們計劃在 2026 財政年度結束前完成 2027 財年的避險計畫。
All the self-help measures that I've mentioned play into our deleveraging pathway, which remains our primary focus. We have made good progress in reducing both gross and net debt over the last 18 months, supported by a disciplined capital allocation framework with gross debt ending 9% lower compared to the prior year. We also improved the regional mix of our debt to better match the underlying cash generation of our assets with the rand for US dollar bond issuance in July.
我提到的所有自助措施都與我們的去槓桿化路徑息息相關,而去槓桿化仍然是我們的主要關注點。在過去 18 個月中,我們在降低總債務和淨債務方面取得了良好進展,這得益於嚴格的資本配置框架,總債務比前一年減少了 9%。7 月份,我們也改善了債務的區域組成,以更好地使我們資產的潛在現金產生與蘭特兌美元債券的發行相匹配。
For the first half of FY26, we ended with a net debt of USD3.8 billion. While slightly above our full year target, we remain on track to achieve net debt below USD3.7 billion by year-end with second half cash generation expected to be higher through the management actions I mentioned earlier. We remain committed to the debt reduction trajectory as set out at CMD, which showed us reaching the net debt target and associated dividend trigger of USD3 billion between FY27 and '28 under different macro assumptions.
2026 財年上半年,我們的淨債務為 38 億美元。雖然略高於我們全年的目標,但我們仍有望在年底前將淨債務降至 37 億美元以下,並且透過我之前提到的管理措施,預計下半年現金流將有所增加。我們仍然致力於按照 CMD 會議制定的債務削減計劃,該計劃表明,在不同的宏觀假設下,我們將在 2027 財年至 2028 財年期間實現 30 億美元的淨債務目標和相關的股息觸發目標。
Given the current macro outlook, the net debt target will likely be achieved in FY28. That said, given the progress we've already made and the head start we have created, we will continue to press and expand on the levers within our control to mitigate the macro headwinds and achieve the target as soon as possible.
鑑於目前的宏觀經濟情勢,淨債務目標很可能在 2028 財年實現。儘管如此,鑑於我們已經取得的進展和我們創造的先發優勢,我們將繼續加大力度,擴大我們可控範圍內的各項措施,以減輕宏觀不利因素,並儘快實現目標。
Turning to more details on the group financial results. The key highlight is the positive free cash flow as defined in our capital allocation framework in the first half of a financial year for the first time in four years and a more than 100% improvement from the prior period. The absolute amount will continue to increase as we further progress the implementation of our plans.
接下來,我們將詳細了解集團的財務表現。最關鍵的亮點是,根據我們的資本配置框架,本財年上半年實現了正自由現金流,這是四年來首次,並且比上一時期增長了 100% 以上。隨著我們計劃的進一步實施,絕對金額將繼續增加。
Gross margin declined by 6%, reflecting the impact of a 17% lower rand oil price and continued pressure in chemicals pricing as well as higher variable cost. This was partly offset by stronger refining margins and higher sales volumes.
毛利率下降了 6%,反映出蘭特油價下跌 17%、化學產品價格持續承壓以及變動成本上升的影響。煉油利潤率提高和銷售成長部分抵消了這一影響。
Earnings before interest and tax decreased by 52%, mainly impacted by non-cash remeasurement items. This related to impairments of ZAR7.8 billion compared to ZAR5.7 billion in the prior year. The current period includes an impairment of ZAR3 billion on the Secunda liquid fuels refinery, CGU, which remains fully impaired.
息稅前利潤下降了 52%,主要受非現金重估項目的影響。這涉及78億蘭特的減損損失,而前一年為57億蘭特。本期包括 Secunda 液態燃料煉油廠 CGU 的 30 億蘭特減損,該減損仍完全生效。
The recoverable amount of the CGU did improve through management actions but was negatively impacted by lower forecast price assumptions and a stronger exchange rate. As a reminder, the overall Secunda complex, including the Secunda Chemical CGUs, continue to have significant headroom when comparing the total recoverable amount to the net book value.
透過管理措施,現金產生單位的可回收金額有所改善,但受到較低的預測價格假設和走強的匯率的負面影響。需要提醒的是,包括 Secunda Chemical CGU 在內的整個 Secunda 綜合體,在將總可回收金額與帳面淨值進行比較時,仍然有很大的提升空間。
On the Mozambique and PSA gas development, we recorded an impairment of ZAR3.9 billion, reflecting the revised gas production profile as outlined by Simon, and the impact of the stronger rand-dollar exchange rate. Furthermore, a delay in the start-up of the CTT gas-to-power project in Mozambique and the higher end-of-job cost estimate resulted in the full impairment of Sasol's equity accounted investment of ZAR0.5 billion.
關於莫三比克和PSA天然氣開發項目,我們提列了39億蘭特的減損損失,這反映了西蒙概述的修訂後的天然氣產量情況,以及蘭特兌美元匯率走強的影響。此外,莫三比克 CTT 天然氣發電項目的啟動延遲以及較高的項目竣工成本估算導致 Sasol 的權益法核算投資 5 億蘭特全部減值。
Looking at adjusted EBITDA by segment. Performance across the portfolio reflects different market and pricing conditions but also highlights the benefit of diversification. Starting with the Southern Africa value chain, Mining EBITDA was lower, mainly due to the phaseout of export coal sales during the period. This was partly offset by redirecting volumes to Secunda operations, which benefits the broader SA value chain. We also realized additional income from leasing our Richards Bay Coal Terminal capacity.
按業務板塊查看調整後 EBITDA。投資組合的整體表現反映了不同的市場和定價條件,但也突顯了多元化投資的好處。從南部非洲價值鏈來看,採礦業的 EBITDA 較低,主要是因為該期間煤炭出口銷售逐步停止。將產量轉移到塞昆達工廠在一定程度上抵消了這一影響,這有利於整個南非價值鏈。我們也透過出租理查茲灣煤炭碼頭產能獲得了額外收入。
Gas EBITDA declined due to lower volumes as well as the stronger rand-US dollar exchange rate. We expect higher sales volumes in the second half of FY26 as the PSA ramps up. Fuels EBITDA increased, supported by higher refining margins and product differentials. This was further supported by higher sales volumes on the back of improved operational performance at Secunda and increased utilization at Natref. In Chemicals, both Africa and America EBITDA generation remains under pressure, reflecting lower prices, weaker margins, and soft demand in global chemical markets.
由於銷量下降以及蘭特兌美元匯率走強,天然氣 EBITDA 下降。我們預計,隨著PSA的逐步推進,2026財年下半年的銷售量將會成長。燃料業務 EBITDA 成長,得益於煉油利潤率和產品價差的提高。Secunda 營運績效的提高和 Natref 利用率的提高進一步推動了銷售量的成長。在化學產業,非洲和美洲的 EBITDA 產生仍面臨壓力,反映出全球化工市場價格走低、利潤率下降和需求疲軟。
Eurasia saw margin improvement, reflecting the benefits of our value over volume strategy and higher palm kernel oil pricing. Overall, the portfolio supported by targeted strategic initiatives seeks to balance earnings across sectors and geographies, further improving our resilience in an ever-changing global landscape.
歐亞地區的利潤率有所提高,這反映了我們以價值而非數量取勝的策略以及棕櫚仁油價格上漲帶來的好處。整體而言,在有針對性的策略性舉措支持下,投資組合力求平衡各行業和地區的收益,從而進一步提高我們在不斷變化的全球環境中的韌性。
In closing, our financial priorities for Sasol are clear and unchanged. We are focused on improving sustainable cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, deleveraging the balance sheet, and proactive risk management. These priorities have been translated into plans with the key financial metrics for FY26 included in this slide and largely unchanged versus what we told you before.
最後,我們對 Sasol 的財務優先事項是明確且不變的。我們致力於提高永續現金流量、規範資本配置、降低資產負債率和積極進行風險管理。這些優先事項已轉化為計劃,其中 2026 財年的關鍵財務指標已包含在本幻燈片中,與我們之前告訴您的內容基本相同。
We aim to deliver on our volume targets that Simon shared, keep cash fixed cost increases below inflation, maintain first order capital within the revised target of ZAR22 billion to ZAR24 billion and manage net working capital between 15.5% and 16.5% as guided at CMD.
我們的目標是實現 Simon 提出的銷售目標,將現金固定成本成長控制在通貨膨脹率以下,將首筆訂單資本維持在修訂後的 220 億至 240 億蘭特的目標範圍內,並將淨營運資本控制在 CMD 指導的 15.5% 至 16.5% 之間。
We remain committed to reducing net debt to below USD3.7 billion by the end of the year despite the uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, while continuing to manage risk proactively through the completion of the FY27 hedging program.
儘管宏觀經濟環境存在不確定性,但我們仍致力於在年底前將淨債務減少到 37 億美元以下,同時繼續積極主動地管理風險,直至完成 2027 財年的對沖計劃。
Ultimately, credibility comes from delivering what we say. We started the journey of delivery at the end of FY25 and built on that momentum in the first half of FY26. We cannot control the macroeconomic environment that we operate in, but we can control how we respond with decisiveness, discipline, and a clear bias for action. This is our commitment to you and underpins how we will continue to create sustainable value for our stakeholders.
歸根究底,信譽來自於言行一致。我們在 2025 財年末開始了交付之旅,並在 2026 財年上半年鞏固了這一勢頭。我們無法控制我們所處的宏觀經濟環境,但我們可以控制我們如何以果斷、自律和明確的行動導向來應對。這是我們對您的承諾,也是我們將繼續為利害關係人創造永續價值的基礎。
With that, I will now hand back to Simon for his closing remarks and look forward to engaging in the Q&A session later. Thank you.
接下來,我將把發言權交還給西蒙,請他作總結發言,並期待稍後與大家進行問答環節。謝謝。
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Walt. Let us now turn to a brief update on our Grow and Transform strategic agenda and the key progress made in the last few months.
謝謝你,沃特。現在讓我們簡要介紹一下我們的「成長與轉型」策略議程以及過去幾個月的關鍵進展。
Our approach to decarbonization remains pragmatic and value accretive, reducing emissions while safeguarding energy security and affordability. The principle remain. We will scale solution in line with market demand, leverage our existing assets and only pursue pathways that are value accretive for Sasol and the shareholders. Since Capital Markets Day, we have made good progress across renewables, carbon offsets, and sustainable fuels, all aligned with clear commercial logic.
我們的脫碳方法仍務實且具增值性,在減少排放的同時保障能源安全和可負擔性。原則不變。我們將根據市場需求擴大解決方案規模,利用我們現有的資產,並且只追求能夠為 Sasol 和股東創造價值的途徑。自資本市場日以來,我們在再生能源、碳抵消和永續燃料方面取得了良好進展,所有這些都符合清晰的商業邏輯。
In renewable energy, we have now secured more than 1.2 gigawatts in South Africa, moving steadily towards our 2-gigawatt target by the end of 2030. We have now contracted approximately 9 million tonnes of carbon offsets over the next three years, securing around 60% of our offset requirements.
在再生能源領域,我們目前已在南非獲得了超過 1.2 吉瓦的裝置容量,正穩步朝著 2030 年底達到 2 吉瓦的目標邁進。我們目前已簽訂了未來三年約 900 萬噸碳抵消合同,確保滿足我們約 60% 的抵消需求。
Following the piloting of renewable diesel at our Natref facility, certification is nearing completion and is planned for the second half. These position us well to compete in this market.
繼我們在納特雷夫工廠試生產再生柴油之後,認證工作已接近完成,並計劃在下半年進行。這些優勢使我們在這個市場中具備了強大的競爭力。
Renewable energy is a good example of moving from strategy to delivery. As mentioned, we've now secured more than 1.2 gigawatts of renewable energy in South Africa. This was achieved by securing a further 300 megawatts of renewable energy being a solar and battery storage project that reached financial close this month and is expected to be online in 2028. Execution is also progressing well with 180 megawatts already operational and 740 megawatts under construction.
再生能源是實現從策略到實施的一個很好的例子。如同前面所提到的,我們目前已在南非獲得了超過 1.2 吉瓦的可再生能源。這是透過確保額外300兆瓦再生能源實現的,該可再生能源是一個太陽能和電池儲能項目,已於本月完成融資,預計將於2028年上線。專案執行進展順利,目前已有 180 兆瓦投入運營,740 兆瓦正在建設中。
In December 2025, we received our renewable energy trading license from NERSA. This trading license will enable us to manage excess generation and with flexibility to use the supply where it exceeds our own demand. As the portfolio scales, we can, therefore, progressively build a stand-alone power business.
2025年12月,我們獲得了NERSA頒發的再生能源交易許可證。這項交易許可證將使我們能夠管理過剩的發電量,並靈活地在發電量超過自身需求時使用剩餘電力。隨著投資組合規模的擴大,我們可以逐步建立一個獨立的電力業務。
Commercially, since launching Ampli Energy with Discovery Green, demand has been strong and the offering has been oversubscribed. Overall, renewable energy is already lowering our cost base, reducing emissions, and creating a scalable platform that opens access to new markets over time.
從商業角度來看,自從與 Discovery Green 合作推出 Ampli Energy 以來,市場需求強勁,產品認購踴躍。總體而言,再生能源已經降低了我們的成本基礎,減少了排放,並創造了一個可擴展的平台,隨著時間的推移,這將為我們打開進入新市場的大門。
Looking beyond 2030, our focus is on sustaining value across the group and ensuring the business remains resilient over the long term. Our priority is to protect the strength of our existing businesses, maintain flexibility as markets and policies evolve, develop new sources of value where there is clear commercial logic. Across our energy and feedstock platforms, long-term supply options are progressing. These alongside initiatives in the Gas value chain that extend optionality and support continued market participation.
展望 2030 年以後,我們的重點是維持集團整體價值,並確保業務在長期內保持韌性。我們的首要任務是保護現有業務的優勢,隨著市場和政策的變化保持靈活性,並在具有明確商業邏輯的地方開發新的價值來源。在我們的能源和原料平台上,長期供應方案正逐步落實。這些舉措與天然氣價值鏈中的其他舉措一起,擴大了選擇範圍,並支持持續的市場參與。
From a carbon regulatory perspective, allowances are in place through 2030. The proposal for carbon tax recycling has been submitted and engagements continue. This will help us to manage transition costs and support value-accretive reinvestment in South Africa.
從碳排放監管角度來看,排放配額制度已實施至 2030 年。碳稅再利用方案已提交,相關討論仍在進行中。這將有助於我們控制轉型成本,並支持在南非進行增值再投資。
In International Chemicals, the business is being reset to improve competitiveness and profitability, unlocking future value. At the same time, we are building new businesses, sustainable businesses, including renewable energy trading and sustainable fuels chemicals, creating additional pathways for growth and value creation over time.
國際化學品業務正在重組,以提高競爭力和獲利能力,釋放未來價值。同時,我們正在打造新的、可持續發展的業務,包括再生能源交易和永續燃料化學品,從而為未來的成長和價值創造創造更多途徑。
In January, a EUR350 million Grant was secured by Zaffra, our joint venture with Topsoe for an e-SAF project in Germany. This disciplined approach supports a business that remains resilient through the cycle and capable of delivering long-term shareholder value.
1 月份,我們與 Topsoe 的合資企業 Zaffra 獲得了 3.5 億歐元的撥款,用於在德國開展 e-SAF 計畫。這種嚴謹的方法有助於企業在經濟週期中保持韌性,並能夠為股東創造長期價值。
To close, I'm confident that we are on the right path. We are strengthening the foundation, executing with discipline. We are laying the groundwork for future growth. There's still work to do, but we have the right strategy, we have the right focus, and the right people to deliver on our commitments. My executive team and I look forward to further engagement in the Q&A sessions. Thank you.
最後,我相信我們走在正確的道路上。我們正在夯實基礎,嚴謹執行。我們正在為未來的發展奠定基礎。還有很多工作要做,但我們有正確的策略、正確的方向和合適的人才來履行我們的承諾。我和我的管理團隊期待在問答環節中進一步參與互動。謝謝。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, and welcome back to the Q&A session where you'll have an opportunity to direct your questions to Simon, Walt and the rest of the executive management team.
謝謝,歡迎回到問答環節,您將有機會向西蒙、華特和其他高階主管團隊成員提問。
Joining us on stage today, to my left, we have Victor Bester joining us, he's the EVP of Operations and Projects in Southern Africa; Antje Gerber, the EVP of International Chemicals; and to my immediate left, Sandile Siyaya, who's the EVP of our Mining business.
今天與我們同台的嘉賓有:在我左邊的是 Victor Bester,他是南非營運和專案執行副總裁;Antje Gerber,國際化學品執行副總裁;在我左邊不遠處的是 Sandile Siyaya,他是我們礦業業務的執行副總裁。
In addition, we also have other GSE members present in the room today for support to our Q&A. Vuyo Kahla is our EVP of Commercial and Legal; Christian Herrmann is our EVP of Marketing and Sales for Energy and Chemicals, Southern Africa; Sarushen Pillay ,who's the EVP of Business Building, Strategy and Technology; and Thabile Makgala, the EVP of People, SHE, Risk and Corporate Affairs.
此外,今天還有其他 GSE 成員在場,為我們的問答環節提供支援。Vuyo Kahla 是我們的商業和法律執行副總裁;Christian Herrmann 是我們南部非洲能源和化學行銷行銷和銷售執行副總裁;Sarushen Pillay 是我們的業務建設、策略和技術執行副總裁;Thabile Makgala 是我們的人事、安全、健康、風險和企業事務執行副總裁。
We urge you to please submit your questions via the online Q&A platform on the right-hand side of your screen. Alternatively you may also dial-in via our Chorus Call link, where you will have the opportunity to voice over your questions. I will alternate between the two platforms to ensure a fair participation of all. Thank you.
請您透過螢幕右側的線上問答平台提交您的問題。或者,您也可以透過我們的 Chorus Call 連結撥入,在那裡您將有機會提出您的問題。我將交替使用這兩個平台,以確保所有人的公平參與。謝謝。
We'll begin now. If I could turn over to Chorus Call, please first two callers who are queued.
我們現在開始。如果可以的話,請先接聽排隊中的前兩位來電者。
Operator
Operator
Gerhard Engelbrecht, Absa CIB.
格哈德‧恩格爾布雷希特 (Gerhard Engelbrecht),Absa CIB。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Gerhard, could you hear us? Can you voice over your questions?
格哈德,你聽得到我們說話嗎?您能用語音提問嗎?
Operator
Operator
Adrian Hammond, SBG Securities.
阿德里安·哈蒙德,SBG 證券公司。
Adrian Hammond - Analyst
Adrian Hammond - Analyst
I have three questions, if I may. Firstly, for either Simon or Victor. Let's talk about your Secunda volumes, if I may. And looking towards the next financial year, you've achieved annualized run rate in the second quarter of about 7.6 million tonnes. Notwithstanding you'll have maintenance scheduled next year again. It looks like that you might achieve your top end guidance sooner than expected.
如果可以的話,我有三個問題。首先,無論是西蒙還是維克多。如果可以的話,我想和您談談您的 Secunda 卷數。展望下一個財政年度,你們第二季的年化運作率約為 760 萬噸。儘管如此,明年您仍需再次進行維護。看來你可能會比預期更早達到最高指導目標。
Could you comment on that? And perhaps Victor can elaborate with some progress on the refurbishments of the gasifiers.
您能對此發表一下看法嗎?或許維克多可以詳細介紹氣化爐翻新工程的進度。
And then secondly, just your view on this carbon tax suspension that's been proposed by the minister and whether you think that will play out or not? And then lastly, on the MRG pricing submission. Does this pricing that you've submitted preserve revenue and EBITDA as it currently is for this gas business? And perhaps you can elaborate on how many years this bridge gap will be in place for and how much the CapEx may be for that?
其次,您對部長提出的暫停徵收碳稅的提議有何看法?您認為這項提議是否會被採納?最後,是關於 MRG 定價提交的問題。您提交的定價方案能否維持該天然氣業務目前的收入和 EBITDA 水準?您能否詳細說明一下,這座橋樑將存在多少年,以及這段期間的資本支出可能是多少?
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Adrian, for the questions. Simon, would you like to kick off?
謝謝你,艾德里安,提出問題。西蒙,你想先開球嗎?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Let me start then I will hand over to Victor on the guidance of Secunda. Then I mean, I'll deal with the carbon tax and I mean, I'll also deal with the MRG.
是的。那我就先開始吧,之後在塞昆達的指導下,我會把麥克風交給維克多。那麼,我會處理碳稅問題,我也會處理MRG問題。
I mean, firstly, on the Secunda volumes, I mean, you're right. If you check where we ended at H1 and you multiply it by 2, I mean, you will get a number, that's on the high end of our market guidance. I mean, however, Victor will go into the details.
我的意思是,首先,關於 Secunda 卷,我的意思是,你說得對。如果你查看我們上半年結束時的數值,然後乘以 2,我的意思是,你會得到一個數字,這個數字處於我們市場預期範圍的上限。我的意思是,不過維克多會詳細說明的。
I mean, for us, it's a combination of both, I mean, coal quality and gas fire maintenance, and Victor can explain the intricacies of how those two work. And we have to go through that program before we can give any indication contrary to the guidance that we've given. So Victor will go into those details.
我的意思是,對我們來說,這是兩者的結合,即煤炭品質和燃氣爐維護,而 Victor 可以解釋這兩者運作的複雜性。我們必須先完成那個程序,才能給出任何與我們已給予的指導意見相悖的指示。所以維克多會詳細解釋這些細節。
On carbon tax, yes, we've seen the newspaper articles on the minister's view on carbon tax -- maybe not his view, but what other people said. They were proposed out to scrap it. From a Sasol point of view, I just wanted to step back a bit and remember that carbon tax was instituted in South Africa to deal with the CBAM, because if you don't have carbon tax in your country, then you import into Europe. CBAM will then takes you there unless you have a carbon tax in your own country. So our country, I think correctly moved in that direction to protect themselves.
關於碳稅,是的,我們已經看到了報紙上關於部長對碳稅的看法的文章——也許不是他自己的觀點,而是其他人的看法。他們提議取消這個項目。從 Sasol 的角度來看,我只想稍微回顧一下,南非實施碳稅是為了應對 CBAM,因為如果你的國家沒有碳稅,那麼你就需要從歐洲進口碳。除非您所在的國家/地區徵收碳稅,否則 CBAM 將帶您前往目的地。所以我認為,我們國家朝著那個方向採取的行動是正確的,這是為了保護自己。
However, the implementation, and that's where Sasol is coming from. I mean, our focus in how this must be implemented and our firm belief is that carbon tax has to be implemented with the ability -- with a correct mechanism rather than a stick, so it shouldn't be a punitive tax.
然而,問題在於執行層面,而這正是 Sasol 的出發點。我的意思是,我們關注的重點是如何實施這項政策,我們堅信碳稅必須以正確的機製而不是懲罰性手段來實施,因此它不應該是一種懲罰性稅收。
And to that end, not only us, but us and the entire business community in South Africa, we are proposing a carbon tax recycle mechanism where the carbon tax is recycled and it allows us and others like us who are busy with the transition to put that money into transitioning the fossil fuel sector because in the long time, I mean, 15-, 20 years, that work needs to be done, and we'd rather use the carbon tax now for that transition work.
為此,不僅是我們,還有南非整個商業界,我們正在提議建立碳稅循環機制,將碳稅循環利用,這樣我們以及其他像我們一樣致力於轉型的人就可以將這筆錢投入到化石燃料行業的轉型中,因為從長遠來看,我的意思是15到20年,這項工作需要完成,我們寧願轉型工作現在就將碳稅用於這項工作。
Your final question was on the MRG. I mean, firstly, from the pricing point of view. I mean, that we've submitted our pricing with NERSA. I think that should become public soon. I mean, you'll see that, yes, MRG based on the input cost is -- will be slightly more expensive than the current gas, but that's a NERSA process. And I would just like to allow NERSA to continue with that. And the CapEx for the bridging solution for MRG is not significant, and all of it is included in our CapEx profile.
你最後一個問題是關於 MRG 的。我的意思是,首先,從價格角度來看。我的意思是,我們已經向 NERSA 提交了我們的定價。我認為這件事應該很快就會公諸於世。我的意思是,你會發現,是的,基於投入成本的 MRG 會比目前的天然氣略貴一些,但這是 NERSA 流程的一部分。我希望NERSA能夠繼續這麼做。MRG 過渡解決方案的資本支出並不大,全部都已包含在我們的資本支出概況中。
So Victor, maybe you can go deeper into why we're not adjusting the guidance yet.
維克多,或許你可以更深入地解釋為什麼我們目前還沒有調整指導方針。
Victor Bester - Executive Vice President - Energy Operations and Projects
Victor Bester - Executive Vice President - Energy Operations and Projects
Well, thank you, Simon. I guess, Adrian, it's -- we are quite optimistic about our performance and our results that we are seeing at Secunda. But we need to look at it with a bit of moderation. And as I said in CMD, we're following a specific ramp-up curve towards FY28. And just to give you a sense, the gasifier restoration program is going well. To date, we have seen 25% of the fleet, and we hope to see 40% of the fleet by the end of this financial year.
謝謝你,西蒙。我想,Adrian,是這樣的——我們對我們在Secunda的表現和取得的成績相當樂觀。但我們需要理性地看待這個問題。正如我在 CMD 中所說,我們正在按照特定的成長曲線邁向 2028 財年。簡單來說,氣化爐修復計畫進展順利。截至目前,我們已經查看了 25% 的船隊,我們希望在本財政年度結束前查看 40% 的船隊。
And until we've seen the entire fleet, it would be, I would say, a bit of a guess in terms of just multiplying our year-to-date performance to get to a sustainable number. We really want to be sure that we understand the scope of the work and the restoration that needs to be done in our gasifiers.
在我們看到整個船隊之前,我認為,僅僅將我們今年迄今為止的業績乘以一個倍數來得出可持續的數字,這多少有些猜測的成分。我們真的想確保我們了解氣化爐需要進行的工作範圍和修復工作。
But the results year-to-date in terms of the 25% that we have seen is really promising. And we've also reduced our geo durations from the high numbers that we have seen in the previous financial year to the numbers that we are seeing this time around. So I can confidently say that we are well on track in terms of achieving our ramp-up towards FY28.
但就目前我們看到的 25% 的成長率而言,今年的結果確實令人鼓舞。此外,我們也將地理位置持續時間從上一個財政年度的高點降低到本年度的水平。因此我可以自信地說,我們在實現 2028 財年目標方面進展順利。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Adrian. Moving to the next caller, please.
謝謝你,艾德里安。請接聽下一位來電者。
Operator
Operator
Gerhard Engelbrecht, Absa CIB.
格哈德‧恩格爾布雷希特 (Gerhard Engelbrecht),Absa CIB。
Gerhard Engelbrecht - Equity Analyst
Gerhard Engelbrecht - Equity Analyst
Sorry about earlier. I hope you can hear me now.
抱歉之前的事。希望你現在能聽到我說話。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
We can hear you. Go ahead, Gerhard.
我們能聽到你的聲音。請繼續,格哈德。
Gerhard Engelbrecht - Equity Analyst
Gerhard Engelbrecht - Equity Analyst
I just have a question around your de-gearing guidance. Firstly, you say you're looking to reduce net debt by the end of the financial year. We're sitting in an environment in the second half where the rand is already much stronger, refining margins have come down, chemical prices are lower. You're guiding CapEx much higher in the second half. If I look at your guidance range and what you've spent, and then there's the uncertainty around volumes that Victor has just spoken about.
我有一個關於您關於降低齒輪比指導的問題。首先,您說您希望在本財年結束前減少淨債務。我們現在所處的環境是,蘭特已經強勢很多,煉油利潤率下降,化工產品價格也更低。您預計下半年資本支出將大幅增加。如果我看一下你的指導範圍和你已經投入的資金,再加上維克多剛才提到的銷量方面的不確定性。
So I guess my question is how do you then (inaudible)
所以我想問的是,那你該怎麼做呢?(聽不清楚)
I have a second question just around CapEx. You say you haven't deferred any CapEx that's used. But does this impact your longer-term CapEx guidance as well? Do you expect to revise that lower? And just looking at the numbers, your guidance points to second half CapEx almost 60% higher than the first half and 30% higher than the second half of last year. How should I interpret that?
我還有一個關於資本支出的問題。你說你沒有推遲任何已使用的資本支出。但這是否也會影響你們的長期資本支出預期?你預計會下調這個數字嗎?單從數字來看,你們的預測表明,下半年資本支出將比上半年高出近 60%,比去年下半年高出 30%。我該如何理解這句話?
And then maybe just lastly, I see you posted some medium-term notes. I would have thought now is a good time to buy dollars to prepare for debt repayment. What was your thinking around the repayment of the notes? And may I just say, I was pleasantly surprised by your cost as was the case last year.
最後,我看到你發布了一些中期計劃。我認為現在是購買美元以準備償還債務的好時機。當時你是怎麼考慮償還這些票據的?另外,我想說,和去年一樣,你們的價格讓我感到驚喜。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Sorry, Gerhard, we lost you a little bit on the last part of your question. Could you repeat the third question that you had around the -- I think it was around the medium-term notes?
抱歉,格哈德,你問題的最後一部分我們有點沒聽懂。您能否再重複一下您之前關於——我想是關於中期報告的——的第三個問題?
Gerhard Engelbrecht - Equity Analyst
Gerhard Engelbrecht - Equity Analyst
Yes, I'm sorry. I was just going to say, I just thought that now with the rand is strong, a good idea to rather buy dollars and to prepare for the debt repayments that are on the horizon with the rand so strong. So I was just curious as to why you decided to repay the medium-term notes?
是的,我很抱歉。我正想說,我覺得現在蘭特強勢,買美元,為即將到來的債務償還做好準備,是個好主意。所以我很好奇,您為什麼決定償還中期票據?
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Okay. Thank you. Thank you for those questions. Simon, would you like to kick us off before we head into the financial questions? Would you like Walt to take all of them?
好的。謝謝。謝謝你提出這些問題。西蒙,在我們開始討論財務問題之前,你能否先拋磚引玉?你想讓沃特把它們全都帶走嗎?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So, on CapEx. All these questions are financial. But let me -- maybe just say on CapEx overall. In terms of the deferral, Gerhard, the big delta between the two is because we didn't have a phase shutdown. And we also saw the end of the major programs like the PSA coming to an end. And our own capital efficiency levers that we've pulled towards the end of last year financial year, then coming into H1.
是的。所以,關於資本支出。這些問題都與財務有關。但我想就整體資本支出說幾句。就延期而言,格哈德,兩者之間的最大差異在於我們沒有階段性停工。我們也看到像PSA這樣的大型計畫走向終結。還有我們在上個財年末以及上半年採取的提高資本效率的措施。
So that's where we are on CapEx. I mean, we're using a risk-based approach to make sure that the integrity and stability of our assets can be maintained. I think with that, Walt, you can just deal with the three financial questions.
這就是我們目前的資本支出狀況。我的意思是,我們採用基於風險的方法,以確保我們資產的完整性和穩定性能夠得到維護。沃特,我想有了這些,你就可以處理這三個財務問題了。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yes, sure. Thanks, Gerhard, for the questions. I'll try and there were quite a few in there. So let me go through them kind of systematically.
當然可以。謝謝格哈德提出的問題。我會試試,裡面確實有不少。那麼,就讓我有條不紊地逐一介紹一下。
On the de-gearing guidance, yes, so we are guiding that we will still be below USD3.7 billion by the end of the year on net debt. So that obviously implies that we will generate free cash flow in the second half of the year.
關於去槓桿化預期,是的,我們預計到年底淨債務仍將低於 37 億美元。所以很明顯,這意味著我們將在今年下半年產生自由現金流。
Pricing does remain a bit of a wildcard. I mean, if you look at the current oil prices, and there's a wide range of estimates out there and at times it by the current exchange rate, I see the rand oil pretty similar to what we've had for the first half. But there is a scenario that plays out that it does reduce.
價格仍然是個不太穩定的因素。我的意思是,如果你看看目前的油價,雖然有很多不同的預測,有時還要考慮當前的匯率,我認為蘭特兌石油的價格和上半年差不多。但有一種情況是,它確實會減少這種情況的發生。
I think from my side, volumes will be slightly higher. We did have a bit of inventory build over the first half of the year. So you'll see some working capital unwind as we better match the sales and production to that. I think we'll continue to keep our cost discipline.
我認為就我而言,成交量會略高一些。今年上半年我們確實累積了一些庫存。因此,隨著銷售和生產更好地匹配,你會看到一些營運資金被釋放。我認為我們會繼續保持成本控制。
And then CapEx, we do see an increase in the second half of the year. There are some projects that are -- we're in front-end loading that are now will progress through the gates in the second half, particularly in our mining space as we continue to invest there to ensure that we can increase own production and reduce the external purchases. There's also some non-phase kind of shutdown capital in Secunda, but we will look to continue to optimize that spend.
至於資本支出,我們確實看到下半年有成長。有些項目——我們目前正處於前期準備階段——將在下半年取得進展,尤其是在我們的採礦領域,因為我們將繼續投資,以確保我們能夠提高自身產量並減少外部採購。Secunda 還有一些非階段性的停工資金,但我們會繼續優化這筆支出。
I think Victor and the team and the projects and engineering team are doing a lot of work to analyze our capital spend and not just the scope of the work that we do, but to reduce the absolute cost. In terms of the CapEx for the RCF, we're not adjusting the guidance for -- at this point in time. But the important message there wasn't to say this ZAR2 billion rolls over into next financial year.
我認為 Victor 和他的團隊以及專案和工程團隊正在做很多工作來分析我們的資本支出,不僅分析我們工作的範圍,還要降低絕對成本。就循環信貸融資的資本支出而言,我們目前不會調整指導意見。但其中最重要的訊息並不是說這20億蘭特會結轉到下一個財政年度。
So the guidance that we gave of around -- I think it was ZAR28 million to ZAR30 million in terms of the first order, excluding the selective growth, we'll retain that. But we are looking to see whether or not we can reduce that further, but I'd rather do that as we get closer to FY27 and we finish some of the scoping work.
因此,我們給出的指導意見——我認為第一筆訂單金額約為 2800 萬至 3000 萬蘭特,不包括選擇性增長——我們將保持這一數字。但我們正在研究是否可以進一步減少這部分支出,但我更希望在接近 2027 財年並完成一些範圍界定工作之後再進行這項工作。
On the dollar, we did buy quite a lot of dollars. You would have seen in the first half of the year, we bought almost $0.5 billion and paid that into the RCF. So that was from the issuance that we did, the bond, the ZAR for US dollar bond issuance we did in July. And then we moved some excess cash into the RCF in the first half, too.
我們確實買入了相當多的美元。你們應該已經看到,在今年上半年,我們購買了近 5 億美元的資產,並將這些資產投入了循環信貸基金 (RCF)。所以,那是我們發行的債券,也就是我們在7月發行的以南非蘭特兌美元計價的債券。上半年,我們也將一些多餘的現金轉移到了循環信貸額度。
On the DMTN, it was a relatively small around ZAR800 million that was maturing. So we decided to make that payment. But we'll continue to optimize on that capital structure. I mean, I think there'll probably be a lot of questions around our -- what are we going to do with the '26s and '27s that are maturing. We take a very proactive kind of disciplined approach to our capital structure. We like the Eurobonds. We still think they are an option that's available. But at least we have options available now.
DMTN方面,到期的金額相對較小,約8億蘭特。所以我們決定支付這筆款項。但我們會繼續優化資本結構。我的意思是,我認為可能會有很多關於我們——我們該如何處理那些正在成熟的 2026 年和 2027 年車型——的問題。我們對資本結構採取非常積極主動且嚴謹的態度。我們喜歡歐元債券。我們仍然認為這是一個可行的選擇。但至少我們現在有了選擇。
We've got a lot of liquidity, more than USD4 billion sitting there. And we did the deal in July. And so that just gives us options to manage those immediate maturities. And now we're looking more at kind of the medium-term refinancing and just assessing all of our options.
我們擁有大量流動資金,超過40億美元。我們在七月完成了這筆交易。因此,這為我們提供了應對這些近期到期事項的選擇。現在我們更專注於中期再融資,並評估我們所有的選擇。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Gerhard. Thanks for that set of questions. Also just want to echo a similar question from Sashank Lanka from Bank of America around the driver for the second half uplift in capital. So I think you've addressed that. Thank you, Walt.
謝謝你,格哈德。謝謝你提出這些問題。另外,我也想回應美國銀行的 Sashank Lanka 提出的類似問題,也就是下半年資本成長的驅動因素是什麼。所以我覺得你已經解釋過了。謝謝你,沃特。
I'm going to move to the online questions now. There's quite a number of questions around the balance sheet and capital allocation. If we can start with those. I'll maybe take two or three at a time and then move on.
接下來我要回答線上問題了。關於資產負債表和資本配置,有許多問題需要解答。如果我們能從這些開始就好了。我可能會一次拿兩三個,然後再繼續。
Starting with a question from Lorenzo Parisi from JPMorgan -- sorry, that question has also been addressed around the repayments. A question from Stella Cridge at Barclays. Do you see the current cost of borrowing in the US dollar bond market as more attractive than prior?
首先是摩根大通的 Lorenzo Parisi 提出的問題——抱歉,關於還款的問題也已經討論過了。來自巴克萊銀行的斯特拉·克里奇提出的問題。您認為目前美元債券市場的借貸成本比以前更具吸引力嗎?
And then I think a follow-on question from Kay Hope from Bank of America. Do you have any FX targets for your debt going forward? For instance, are you looking to increase local currency debt and decrease USD-euro obligations, which you've partly addressed earlier? Well, but I think what is the proportion of euro and dollar debt today? And how does this compare to your revenues?
然後,我想美國銀行的凱·霍普會提出一個後續問題。你們對未來的債務外匯交易有任何目標嗎?例如,您是否打算增加本幣債務並減少美元兌歐元債務?您之前已經部分地考慮過這個問題。但我想知道目前歐元和美元債務的比例是多少?這與您的收入相比如何?
I think the last question, I'll just end off with on CapEx. The CapEx expenditure classification policy as the CapEx appears to be more like repairs and maintenance. If classified as an expense, the EBITDA number will reflect the realistic performance. And that's a question from [Heinrich]. I'm not sure what company he represents.
最後一個問題,我就簡單地談談資本支出吧。資本支出分類政策顯示,資本支出更像是維修和保養。如果將其歸類為費用,則 EBITDA 數值將反映實際業績。這是來自…的問題[海因里希]。我不確定他代表哪家公司。
I think we'll take that set to start off with.
我想我們就先用這套方案吧。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Okay. So I think -- thanks, Stella, for the question. I do see -- I think the current cost of borrowing in the US dollar bond market is more attractive than maybe where it was 6- to 12 months ago. Almost all of our longer bonds are trading at a yield below -- I mean, below 9%. And so that does -- that is more attractive than some of the numbers we were seeing earlier.
好的。所以我想——謝謝你,斯特拉,提出了這個問題。我確實看到了——我認為目前美元債券市場的借貸成本比 6 到 12 個月前更具吸引力。我們幾乎所有長期債券的收益率都低於——我的意思是,低於 9%。所以,這確實比我們之前看到的一些數字更有吸引力。
We would, however, have to continue to look to see how we optimize that cost. I mean, if you look at some of the bonds that are maturing at sort of a much lower cost of borrowing, so there is a differential, but we do see the current cost is more attractive than it was before.
但是,我們還需要繼續研究如何優化成本。我的意思是,如果你看看一些即將到期的債券,它們的借貸成本要低得多,所以確實存在差異,但我們確實看到目前的成本比以前更有吸引力。
I think let me answer Kay's question then around the FX targets for debt going forward. I think, Kay, the size of the South African market and the amount of debt that we need to refinance, it's just not able to absorb that type of issuance. You would have seen we've increased it to just over 12% now. Our ZAR debt as a function of the total debt. We'll continue to look for opportunities to do that.
那麼,就讓我來回答凱關於未來債務外匯目標的問題吧。凱,我認為,南非市場的規模以及我們需要再融資的債務規模,根本無法消化這種類型的債券發行。您應該已經看到,我們現在已經將其提高到略高於 12%。我們的南非蘭特債務佔總債務的比例。我們將繼續尋找機會來實現這一目標。
Currently, if I look at the mix, just -- and we had that on one of my slides with regard to the EBITDA delivery per region, you would have seen 84% of our earnings still comes from our Southern Africa business and 16% from the International business. That has improved over time. That split was probably closer to 90%-10%. This time last year, it was 87%-13%. So we continue to see an increase in the contribution from our International business. And so doing, try to better match the debt and the earnings across the portfolio.
目前,如果我看一下業務組成,正如我在一張幻燈片中提到的,關於各地區的 EBITDA 實現情況,你會看到我們 84% 的收益仍然來自南部非洲業務,16% 來自國際業務。隨著時間的推移,情況有所改善。實際比例可能更接近 90%-10%。去年這個時候,這個數字是 87%-13%。因此,我們看到國際業務的貢獻持續成長。因此,要努力使投資組合中的債務和收益更好地匹配。
I think the question on the CapEx classification policy. So we follow IFRS standard IAS 16. So we look at our significant components. If we modify or replace them, we would capitalize them, and that's what we continue to do. Obviously, if it's not significant on smaller components, that's when we would expense it through the income statement under the repairs and maintenance expense.
我認為這個問題是關於資本支出分類政策的。因此,我們遵循國際財務報告準則第16號(IAS 16)。因此,我們來看看我們的主要組成部分。如果我們修改或替換它們,我們會將它們的首字母大寫,而我們也一直這樣做。顯然,如果是較小的零件,費用不高,那麼我們就會在損益表中將其計入維修保養費用。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Walt. Before I let you go, there are two more questions on capital guidance. A question from Anton from Nolo. For the lower capital guidance, how much of a factor was the stronger rand in reducing equipment import costs? And then another question from Lorenzo Parisi from JPMorgan. How are you thinking about refinancing the longer-dated notes from 2028 in terms of timing?
謝謝你,沃特。在結束之前,還有兩個關於資本指導的問題。來自 Nolo 的 Anton 提出了一個問題。對於較低的資本指引而言,蘭特走強在降低設備進口成本方面發揮了多大作用?然後,摩根大通的 Lorenzo Parisi 又提出了一個問題。從時間安排來看,您如何考慮對 2028 年到期的長期債券進行再融資?
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Okay. Yes. So I think no doubt, I mean, the stronger rand, and I think that's the balance at Sasol. The stronger rand hurts us on the income statement, but does help us on the balance sheet. I would say the low CapEx guidance, there was a portion of it related to the stronger rand, but it's not a material portion or significant. So it's really around looking at our cost and how do we optimize scope and spend.
好的。是的。所以我認為毫無疑問,蘭特走強,我認為這就是 Sasol 目前的平衡點。蘭特走強對我們的損益表不利,但對我們的資產負債表有利。我認為較低的資本支出預期,一部分原因是蘭特走強,但這部分並不重要。所以關鍵在於審視我們的成本,以及如何優化範圍和支出。
And then on the longer-dated bonds, as I mentioned, we continue to take a proactive approach to this. We are looking outside the window and at the maturities of our different bonds, and we'll assess our options as the market develops. And as we go on this roadshow, too. I think we're spending some time also in Miami with some of our debt investors, and we'd like to understand from them how they see our credit going forward, too.
至於期限較長的債券,正如我之前提到的,我們將繼續採取積極主動的方式來應對。我們正在關注窗外的情況以及我們不同債券的到期日,我們將根據市場的發展來評估我們的選擇。當我們進行這次巡迴演出時也是如此。我想我們也會花一些時間在邁阿密與一些債務投資者會面,我們也想了解他們對我們未來信用狀況的看法。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, Walt. I'm going to move on to International Chemicals business. There are two questions from -- the first one from [Tabo Pato from Katalyst Partners]. More and more chemical plants in Europe, especially Germany, are closing down due to the high energy costs and unsupportive operating environment. What is Sasol's view on its operations in Europe?
偉大的。謝謝你,沃特。我打算轉行到國際化學品業務領域。這裡有兩個問題——第一個問題來自[來自 Katalyst Partners 的 Tabo Pato]由於能源成本高和經營環境不利,歐洲(尤其是德國)越來越多的化工廠正在關閉。Sasol 對其在歐洲的業務有何看法?
And the second question from Sashank Lanka from Bank of America. Is there a risk to your FY28 EBITDA guidance of $750 million to $850 million provided at the CMD given that the EBITDA guidance is cut for this financial year '26?
第二個問題來自美國銀行的薩尚克·蘭卡。鑑於本財年(2026 財年)的 EBITDA 預期被下調,您在 CMD 上給出的 2028 財年 EBITDA 預期(7.5 億美元至 8.5 億美元)是否有風險?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thank you, Tiffany. Let me start, and I'll ask Antje to weigh in. Firstly, on the EBITDA guidance, you remember at CMD, Sashank, we indicated three buckets across which we said there must be, improvement for us to meet our target. I mean the first one was, as I said, of the uplift we said should be coming from a market.
是的。謝謝你,蒂芙尼。我先開始,然後請安特耶發表意見。首先,關於 EBITDA 指引,您還記得在 CMD 會議上,Sashank 指出了三個方面,我們表示,為了實現我們的目標,這三個方面都必須有所改進。我的意思是,正如我所說,第一個問題是我們認為應該來自市場的成長。
Then third was on cost optimization. And the last, third, was the commercial excellence or the value over volume approach and the renegotiation of contracts. So that was broadly how we framed, how we are going to uplift that business.
第三點是成本最佳化。最後,第三點是商業卓越性或價值而非數量的方法以及合約的重新談判。所以,這就是我們大致構想的,我們要如何提升這項業務。
And I mean, if you go through our results, you will see that on the factors within our control, we've done well. However, what we've seen playing out in the market was not as to our expectations. So for now, we will double down on what we need to do, and that is why we're keeping -- I mean, that guidance, but we will keep on watching the market.
我的意思是,如果你仔細查看我們的結果,你會發現,在我們可控的因素範圍內,我們做得很好。然而,我們在市場上看到的情況卻與我們的預期不符。所以目前,我們將加倍努力做好我們需要做的事情,這也是我們保持——我的意思是,保持這一指導方針的原因,但我們會繼續關注市場。
And I think the same goes for Tabo, I mean, your question in terms of -- I mean, other people are closing, but our focus is on what we can do to improve the business. And with that, I want to hand over to Antje.
我認為 Tabo 的情況也是如此,我的意思是,你問的這個問題——我的意思是,其他人都在關門,但我們的重點是我們可以做些什麼來改善業務。接下來,我要把麥克風交給安婕。
Antje Gerber - Executive Vice President - International Chemicals
Antje Gerber - Executive Vice President - International Chemicals
Yes. Thank you, Simon, and thank you, Tabo and Sashank, for the good questions. Maybe starting, first of all, with the chemical plants or the situation of the chemical industry in Europe, which is in a tough spot at the moment. So it remains a challenging operating environment in Europe, given the structurally weak demand, overcapacity, high and also volatile energy costs and the increased regulatory complexity.
是的。謝謝西蒙,也謝謝塔博和薩尚克提出的好問題。或許可以先從化工廠或歐洲化學工業的現況說起,它目前處境艱難。因此,鑑於結構性需求疲軟、產能過剩、能源成本高且波動較大以及監管日益複雜,歐洲的經營環境仍充滿挑戰。
Our strategy at Sasol does not assume a fast recovery of these issues. We are operating on, as Simon has said, value over volume basis in Europe. And while we do that, we actively optimize as well our portfolio. Our portfolio of our offerings, products, but also how we operate in Europe. And while we focus more on specialty and contracted positions and volumes, we can also then earn acceptable returns, and you've seen that in our current results.
Sasol 的策略並不認為這些問題能夠迅速解決。正如西蒙所說,我們在歐洲的經營模式是按價值而非數量來決定的。同時,我們也會積極優化我們的投資組合。我們的產品組合,以及我們在歐洲的運作方式。雖然我們更專注於專業和合約職位及業務量,但我們也能獲得可觀的回報,這一點您已經從我們目前的業績中看到了。
On the other hand, where the assets do not meet our hurdle rates, we will also continue to take decisive actions and Europe must perform on its own merits. So we do not invest in hope. And that goes as well to the guidance of fiscal year '28.
另一方面,如果資產收益率達不到我們的預期,我們也將繼續採取果斷措施,歐洲必須憑藉自身實力來應對。所以我們不把希望寄託在希望。這也適用於 2028 財年的指導方針。
And to your question, Sashank, we are still confident that we can meet that guidance, which we have laid out on the CMD because two-thirds of those deliverables will come from our self-help measures. And we are here executing on identified actions and not aspirational growth assumptions going forward. Two-thirds, as I've said, are self-help measures. And I mean, some of the turnaround actions you can see already bearing some fruits. And we are very clear that they kind of here will also accelerate going forward in the next two years. We are just in year 1 of our turnaround.
至於你的問題,Sashank,我們仍然有信心能夠達到我們在 CMD 上提出的指導方針,因為其中三分之二的交付成果將來自我們的自助措施。我們現在執行的是已確定的行動方案,而不是對未來發展的美好願景。正如我所說,其中三分之二是自助措施。我的意思是,有些扭轉局面的措施已經初見成效。我們非常清楚,未來兩年內,這種情況還會加速發展。我們才剛開始轉型的第一年。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Antje, Simon. If we could move back to Chorus Call, there are two more callers. Could we get the questions, please, operator?
謝謝你,安特耶,西蒙。如果我們回到合唱環節,還有兩位參與者。接線員,請問問題是什麼?
Operator
Operator
Chris Nicholson, RMB Morgan Stanley.
Chris Nicholson,RMB Morgan Stanley。
Christopher Nicholson - Analyst
Christopher Nicholson - Analyst
Yes, I've got two questions. Just the first question is, could you just go into a little bit more detail on what's happening with the Gas from the PSA? You've downgraded guidance for Gas this year. Obviously, we understand the PPA assets is just rolling off. But you downgraded guidance and you've also put through this impairment of lower expected volumes from the PSA asset.
是的,我有兩個問題。第一個問題是,您能否更詳細地介紹 PSA 中的氣體發生了什麼?您下調了今年天然氣產業的業績預期。顯然,我們明白購電協議資產正逐步退出市場。但你們下調了業績指引,也計入了PSA資產預期產量下降的減損損失。
Is that an absolute volume? Or is there something around the link to the amount of volumes that are kind of capped into the CTG gas to power plant? So a little bit on that.
這是絕對體積嗎?或者說,這與輸送至發電廠的天然氣總量上限有關嗎?關於這一點,我簡單說幾句。
And then could you also just talk to the agreement that you've managed to strike with Prax and the current business liquidation there? How long are you able to utilize their share of the Natref refinery? And do you share the full 33% of those benefits? Or does that all flow to your bottom line?
那麼,您能否也談談您與 Prax 達成的協議以及目前該公司的清算情況?您能利用他們在納特雷夫煉油廠的股份多久?您是否享有全部 33% 的福利?或者說,這一切都會直接影響你的利潤?
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Chris for those questions. Simon, would you like to start this one?
謝謝克里斯提出的這些問題。西蒙,你想先開始嗎?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Let me start on Prax and the PSA. And Victor, you can just, I mean, close it out if I leave anything out. Yes, firstly, on Prax. Chris, they're under business rescue, so we can utilize that portion of the volume, as long as the situation remains.
是的。讓我先從 Prax 和 PSA 開始說起。維克多,如果我漏掉了什麼,你可以直接把它關掉。是的,首先是在 Prax 上。克里斯,他們正在進行破產重組,所以只要這種情況持續下去,我們就可以利用那部分業務量。
There is -- however, someone is running an M&A process, which means by December. So we'll see how long that process takes. There might be a new owner that comes in and then takes over that 33%. We'll see how those mechanisms play out.
不過,確實有人在進行併購流程,這意味著到 12 月就會完成。所以,我們來看看這個過程需要多長時間。可能會有新的所有者接手,然後接管這 33% 的股份。我們將拭目以待這些機制如何發揮作用。
But in the meantime, we've got access to it. Of course, we're not running the whole 33%. The refinery can go to 620, 650. We're running around 500 mark, 480 to 500 depending on our ability to place those volumes. So that then flows directly to us. But of course, it does have working capital considerations because now we must carry the crude for the finished products or components for the entire refinery.
但同時,我們已經可以獲取到它了。當然,我們不可能運行全部 33%。煉油廠可以達到 620、650。我們目前的產量在 500 左右,具體數量取決於我們能否安排這些訂單。所以,這些資金就會直接流向我們。當然,這也涉及到營運資金的考慮,因為現在我們必須為整個煉油廠的成品或零件儲備原油。
The PSA or the gas from Mozambique. Like we said, the volumes are intact. What you've seen in the impairment, the impairment was driven primarily by two key factors. The first one was the rand-dollar exchange rate, which is about 40% of what you see in that number of 3.9, which means if we go back to the assumptions, you could easily reverse that.
PSA(生產分成協議)或來自莫三比克的自然。正如我們所說,這些卷冊完好無損。你所看到的減損情況,主要是由兩個關鍵因素造成的。第一個是蘭特兌美元匯率,大約是 3.9 這個數字的 40%,這意味著如果我們回到先前的假設,很容易就能扭轉局面。
And the second one was due to the fact that you couldn't flow all the gas. So the volumes are there, but you couldn't flow all the gas because we do have a swap gas arrangement. So it's the timing of when you can get the gas. We're working at doing high performance test runs and we might do a small mode to enable that flowing of the gas. So that's where we are on the PSA.
第二個原因是氣體無法全部流通。所以氣體量是有的,但由於我們有換氣裝置,所以你無法輸送所有的氣體。所以關鍵在於你什麼時候能加到油。我們正在進行高性能測試運行,可能會採用小規模模式來實現氣體流動。這就是我們目前在公益廣告上的進展。
I think, Victor, maybe you can handle the final question in terms of why we revised our guidance of gas volumes down, but it might have to do with the fact that the CTT is not running. So there was also a component of gas that was supposed to go there.
維克多,我想,或許你可以回答最後一個問題,為什麼我們下調了天然氣產量的預期,但這可能與 CTT 沒有運作有關。所以,那裡也應該含有一部分氣體。
Victor Bester - Executive Vice President - Energy Operations and Projects
Victor Bester - Executive Vice President - Energy Operations and Projects
Thank you, Simon. I think perhaps just to add to what you've said, Simon. I think the impairment is basically linked to two components. The CTT power plant is delayed. That has implications in terms of the impairment. Then secondly, Chris, as you would know, we commissioned and achieved RFO, ready for operations, on the PSA asset in the second quarter of this year.
謝謝你,西蒙。我想補充一下你剛才說的,西蒙。我認為這種損傷主要與兩個方面有關。CTT電廠計畫延期。這會對其損害程度產生影響。其次,克里斯,正如你所知,我們在今年第二季度完成了PSA資產的調試並達到了RFO(準備營運)狀態。
And as we are running the unit, I think we realized certain physical restrictions in the unit that limits the unit in terms of its throughput of excess gas to South Africa. The unit is still subject to a performance test run that will be done. And that performance test run will give us an indication of what options we have in terms of removing that physical restriction.
在運行該裝置的過程中,我們意識到該裝置存在一些物理限制,這限制了該裝置向南非輸送過剩天然氣的量。該設備仍需進行性能測試,測試工作即將進行。這次效能測試運行將向我們展示,在消除這種物理限制方面,我們有哪些選擇。
What that simply means is in terms of the impairment, it's a delay in the gas profile that we can process through the unit. And we believe that post this particular high load test run, we will have a view in terms of what needs to be done. And we suspect it will likely be low or no capital solutions that we will deploy to basically increase the unit's capacity to process the gas. And we will have a review on that later in the financial year.
簡單來說,就損害而言,這意味著我們可以透過該裝置處理的氣體成分有所延遲。我們相信,在這次高負載測試運行之後,我們將清楚知道需要做些什麼。我們懷疑,我們將採用低成本或零資本的解決方案來提高該裝置處理天然氣的能力。我們將在本財年晚些時候對此進行審查。
In terms of the revision of the gas guidance, it's really linked to demand. And there are three components to it really or maybe two. It's our external customers, lower demand, as well as Secunda operations producing more gas, pure gas from our gasifiers also displaces natural gas. And that -- those two factors have basically contributed to lowering our guidance.
就天然氣指導方針的修訂而言,這實際上與需求有關。它實際上包含三個部分,或者也許只有兩個。是我們的外部客戶需求下降,以及 Secunda 工廠生產的氣體更多,我們氣化爐生產的純氣體也取代了天然氣。這兩個因素基本上導致了我們下調業績預期。
And maybe there's a third one. I think, the floods in Mozambique, recent floods in Mozambique, but also the performance of our wells in Mozambique, where we need to do some work related to making sure that the licensing gets done in time and these wells are commissioned as the PSA comes on stream.
或許還有第三個。我認為,莫三比克的洪水,最近莫三比克的洪水,以及我們在莫三比克的油井表現,都需要我們努力確保及時完成許可證發放,並在產品分成協議生效後投入使用。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, Chris, for your questions. We can go to the next caller, please.
克里斯,謝謝你的提問。請接聽下一位來電者。
Operator
Operator
Alex Comer, JPMorgan.
Alex Comer,摩根大通。
Alex Comer - Analyst
Alex Comer - Analyst
Can you hear me?
你聽得到我嗎?
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Yes. Go ahead, please, Alex.
是的。請繼續,亞歷克斯。
Alex Comer - Analyst
Alex Comer - Analyst
Yes. Just a couple of quick things. Just in terms of the grant for the project in Germany, what volume of e-SAF is that designed to produce, that $350 million? Maybe give an explanation there. Is that a CapEx grant? What exactly is that for and volumes do you intend to get out of that? And so timing of when you expect volumes to be produced?
是的。就幾件事簡單說一下。僅就德國的計畫撥款而言,這 3.5 億美元旨在生產多少 e-SAF?或許可以在那裡做個解釋。這是資本支出補助嗎?你這樣做究竟是為了什麼?你打算從中獲得多少收益?那麼,你們預計何時能夠生產這麼多產品?
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Is that your only question, Alex?
亞歷克斯,你就只有這一個問題嗎?
Alex Comer - Analyst
Alex Comer - Analyst
Yes. And then just a little bit of how I get from the EBITDA to the cash generated from operations? There seems to be quite a big gap there.
是的。那麼,我該如何從 EBITDA 計算出經營活動所產生的現金流量呢?兩者之間似乎存在相當大的差距。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you. Thank you for that. Simon?
偉大的。謝謝。謝謝。西蒙?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think on the grant. As for the project development, Sarushen, you can add more. I mean, just to remind the audience, Zaffra is a joint venture between us and Topsoe to develop SAF, especially in the EU. So we are pleased with the award of this grant, which will then allow us to study this. Of course, it will ultimately be anchored by offtakes before you take an FID. But Sarushen, you can give more color on the timing and the CapEx for the project.
是的。我認為應該關注撥款事宜。至於專案開發方面,Sarushen,你還可以補充更多內容。我的意思是,提醒一下各位,Zaffra 是我們和 Topsoe 的合資企業,旨在開發永續航空燃料 (SAF),尤其是在歐盟市場。因此,我們很高興獲得這項資助,這將使我們能夠進行這項研究。當然,在進行 FID 之前,它最終會透過引線固定下來。薩魯申,可以詳細介紹一下專案的進度安排和資本支出嗎?
Sarushen Pillay - Executive Vice President - Business Building, Strategy and Technology
Sarushen Pillay - Executive Vice President - Business Building, Strategy and Technology
Thanks, Simon. So the plant, Alex, it's a small plant. I mean, we're looking at about 2,000 barrels a day. That translates to about 40,000 tonnes of SAF. And as Simon said, we will now move into feed or the detailed feasibility and then feed, but it will be anchored on offtake, right, before we take FID. But if all goes according to plan, we expect first production around 2030 for that plant.
謝謝你,西蒙。所以,Alex,這株植物很小。我的意思是,我們每天大約可以生產 2000 桶。這相當於約 4 萬噸 SAF。正如西蒙所說,我們現在將進入飼料或詳細可行性研究階段,然後再進入飼料階段,但我們會以銷售情況為基準,對吧,然後再做出最終投資決定。但如果一切按計劃進行,我們預計工廠將於 2030 年左右開始投產。
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
All right. Thanks. I mean, Walt, you can take the EBITDA.
好的。謝謝。我的意思是,沃爾特,你可以看看 EBITDA。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yes. I think -- I mean, Alex, I think the team have sent you a reconciliation showing the movement between the adjusted EBITDA and the cash. I think just -- it's safe to say there are some non-cash movements in the numbers, and we welcome to share that. I think they've cross referenced it to the different parts of our analyst book and also on the interim financials. So I think we'd rather take that offline.
是的。我認為——我是說,Alex,我認為團隊已經向你發送了一份調節表,顯示了調整後的 EBITDA 和現金之間的變動情況。我認為——可以肯定地說,這些數字中存在一些非現金變動,我們很樂意分享這些資訊。我認為他們已經將其與我們分析師手冊的不同部分以及中期財務數據進行了交叉比對。所以我覺得我們還是線下討論比較好。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, Alex, for your questions. I think if we can move to the -- sorry, also just to acknowledge a question from Sashank Lanka, similarly on the Prax timing and opportunity set there, which we've already covered in the previous question.
偉大的。謝謝Alex的提問。我認為如果我們能轉向——抱歉,也要回應一下 Sashank Lanka 提出的問題,同樣是關於 Prax 的時機和機會,我們在上一個問題中已經討論過了。
If we can move to some of the questions on the SA ops. The first one coming from Tabo Pato from Katalyst Partners. Stripping out the absence of the shutdown in Secunda, how does this production compared to 1 half '25? And in addition, it has been two months since coal destoning has reached BO. At what percentage capacity is the plant operating? And are you seeing an improvement in the production, which we should expect to come through in the Q3 results?
如果我們能轉而討論一些關於SA操作的問題。第一條來自 Katalyst Partners 的 Tabo Pato。撇開塞昆達工廠停產的影響,這個產量與 2025 年上半年相比如何?此外,煤炭除石作業已經到達波札那兩個月了。該工廠目前的產能利用率是多少?你們是否看到生產方面有所改善?我們預計這將在第三季業績中反映出來。
I think then coming back to the Natref agreement, a question from [Jesse Armstrong from Fairtree]. How much of the total net working capital build in the first half was related to funding with Prax working capital? And how much Chem Africa volumes already produced but not sold may roll over into the second half? Is the lower sales volumes versus production more logistics driven or demand or US tariff based?
我認為,回到納特雷夫協議,一個問題來自[來自 Fairtree 的 Jesse Armstrong]上半年淨營運資本增加總額中有多少與 Prax 營運資本融資有關?Chem Africa已經生產但尚未售出的產量有多少可能會延續到下半年?銷售低於產量是更多受物流、需求還是美國關稅影響?
I think I'll pause there.
我想我就先停在這裡吧。
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I mean, thank you for the questions. The Secunda one, the impact of a shutdown is between 80- and 100 kilo tonnes. So I think you can just subtract that from our number, then you can compare with last year's number. Then the destoning plant it is done and it's running, it's up to speed. Sandile, you can give more color on that. I mean, Sandile is with the Mining operations. You can give more color on where we are on the destoning plant. But I think it's all done.
是的。我的意思是,謝謝你們的提問。塞昆達工廠停產的影響在 80 至 100 千噸之間。所以我覺得你可以直接從我們的數字中減去這個數字,然後就可以和去年的數字進行比較了。然後,除石廠就完工了,正在運轉,已經達到正常運作速度。Sandile,你可以為它添加更多顏色。我的意思是,桑迪萊是從事採礦作業的。您可以更詳細地描述一下我們在除石廠的進展。但我認為一切都結束了。
And then, all that's remaining now is exactly what Victor has said. I mean, the first step was coal quality, then it was progressive step to repair our gasifier fleet of 84 gasifiers and we've done 25% of the gasifiers. But Sandile, you can give more color on the destoning plant.
現在剩下的就只有維克多說過的話了。我的意思是,第一步是提高煤炭質量,然後逐步修復我們的 84 台氣化爐,我們已經完成了 25% 的氣化爐的修復工作。但是 Sandile,你可以為去石植物增添更多色彩。
Sandile Siyaya - Executive Vice President - Mining
Sandile Siyaya - Executive Vice President - Mining
Thank you, Simon. And just the response to Tabo's question. So, as Simon has indicated, the destoning plant is done. And as you recall, with the CMD commitments, we had committed that the output from the destoning plant, we will be looking at supplying coal at below 12% to SO. However, for this year, we committed that it will be between 12% and 14%, and we are achieving those numbers. In terms of capacity, we are at full capacity. We will, however, continue to optimize the operation of that STP plant.
謝謝你,西蒙。還有對塔博問題的回答。正如西蒙所指出的那樣,去石廠已經完工了。如您所知,根據 CMD 的承諾,我們將確保除石廠的煤炭產量中,SO 含量低於 12%。但是,今年我們承諾將佔比控制在 12% 到 14% 之間,而我們正在實現這些目標。就產能而言,我們已經滿載運作。但是,我們將繼續優化該污水處理廠的運作。
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Walt. You can deal with the working capital.
謝謝你,沃特。你可以處理營運資金問題。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yes. So thanks, Jesse. So it's about ZAR1 billion impact in the first half of the year related to the Prax working capital and how we're managing that. Do you want me also, Simon cover on chemicals?
是的。謝謝你,傑西。所以,今年上半年與 Prax 營運資金以及我們如何管理這些資金相關的影響約為 10 億蘭特。你也想讓我負責化學品方面的工作嗎,西蒙?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
是的。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
And then on the Chemical side, I would say it's not a demand. We can still place the products. We have seen some demand weakness in some -- in certain products, but it's not broad-based. So I think it's a case of more timing, the logistics, to be fair, to transmit. We are seeing improved performance vis-a-vis the base that we were on.
至於化工方面,我認為這不是一種需求。我們仍然可以下單。我們看到某些產品的需求有所疲軟,但這並非普遍現象。所以我認為這更多的是一個時機和物流方面的問題,公平地說,就是傳輸方面的問題。與我們之前的基礎相比,我們看到效能有所提高。
But we're filling up the supply chain. We're sending our product regularly via Richards Bay and Durban to our different customer locations. And now it's just a case of converting those volumes into sales sooner rather than later. And so that's part of what we see supporting our second half kind of improved earnings and cash flow generation is that unwind of some of that inventory into sales. I'll leave it at that.
但我們正在完善供應鏈。我們定期透過理查茲灣和德班向各個客戶地點運送產品。現在的問題是如何盡快將這些銷售轉化為銷售額。因此,我們看到下半年獲利和現金流改善的部分原因在於,部分庫存轉化為銷售額。我就說到這兒吧。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
I think a follow-up question also on South African ops from Gustavo Campos at Jefferies. Do you expect the EBITDA in South African value chain to continue to decline in the second half? Do you expect the stronger rand in the second half to have no impact on your profitability given the hedging program? And you also achieved that SA oil breakeven of $53 per barrel. Where do you expect this to be in second half '26?
我認為傑富瑞集團的古斯塔沃·坎波斯也提出了一個關於南非業務的後續問題。您預期南非價值鏈的 EBITDA 在下半年會持續下降嗎?考慮到避險計劃,您認為下半年蘭特走強不會對您的獲利能力產生影響嗎?而你們也實現了南非石油每桶53美元的損益平衡點。你預計到 2026 年下半年它會發展到什麼程度?
And then I think going -- following on from the hedging element, there is a question from [Siam Bata] at Old Mutual. And she wants to know a little bit more about the hedging strategy for crude and the exchange rate? And can we talk through some thoughts on using puts only versus zero cost collars as well?
然後,我認為——接著對沖因素,來自 Old Mutual 的 [Siam Bata] 提出了一個問題。她想更深入了解原油對沖策略和匯率?我們能否也討論一下只使用看跌期權和零成本領式期權策略的一些想法?
So I think we'll start with the SA ops question first on the EBITDA performance and then move to hedging, if that's okay.
所以我想我們先從南非營運部門的 EBITDA 績效問題開始,然後再討論避險問題,可以嗎?
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yes. So I do -- I wouldn't say we expect a significant decrease in EBITDA in the South African business. As I mentioned, I mean, the pricing will come under pressure depending on what rand oil price that you use. But we do see the sales volumes improving. I think in terms of -- it's difficult to say we don't expect any impact of -- on profitability from the stronger rand.
是的。所以,我的確認為——我們預計南非業務的 EBITDA 不會大幅下降。正如我之前提到的,我的意思是,價格會受到壓力,這取決於你使用的蘭特油價。但我們確實看到銷量有所改善。我認為,就盈利能力而言——很難說我們預計蘭特走強不會產生任何影響。
I mean, we hedged 25% to 30% of our rand-dollar exposure on the income statement. So you will see some impact of the stronger rand, particularly when you look at how you translate your chemical prices back into rands. But we do try and manage that as much as possible through a combination of the instruments I mentioned earlier, but also the foreign exchange contracts that we take out on a more transactional level.
我的意思是,我們在損益表中對蘭特兌美元風險敞口進行了 25% 至 30% 的對沖。因此,蘭特走強會帶來一些影響,尤其是在將化學品價格換算回蘭特時。但我們會盡力透過我之前提到的各種工具,以及我們在交易層面上簽訂的外匯合約來管理這種情況。
On the breakeven of SA, I mean, $53 a barrel, we're very happy with the trajectory of that. But I wouldn't say that's the new sustainable level. If you look at the Secunda phase shutdown, we didn't have that in this year. And so that's probably about a $4 per barrel impact on an annual basis. So we will continue to reduce that amount, but I don't want to set that as the new base.
就南非原油的損益平衡點而言,也就是每桶 53 美元,我們對目前的走勢非常滿意。但我不會說這就是新的永續發展水準。如果你看一下塞昆達階段的停工情況,我們今年就沒有發生這種情況。因此,這大概會造成每年每桶4美元的影響。所以我們會繼續減少這個金額,但我不想把它設定為新的基準。
And I think that's why we also haven't adjusted the guidance for FY26 from the $55 to $60. Obviously, we think it will be closer to the lower end of that range, but a lot of that depends on the exchange rate, which does have an impact on how we calculate this. In terms of -- sorry, Tiffany, I'm just trying to -- was that the main one --
我認為這也是為什麼我們沒有將 2026 財年的業績預期從 55 美元調整到 60 美元的原因。顯然,我們認為最終結果會更接近該範圍的下限,但這很大程度上取決於匯率,匯率確實會影響我們的計算方式。至於──抱歉,蒂芙尼,我只是想問──那是主要的那個嗎?--
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Yes. On the breakeven price, I think you've covered that and then the hedging instruments and what and which instruments have been covered.
是的。關於損益平衡價格,我認為你已經涵蓋了這一點,然後是避險工具以及涵蓋了哪些工具。
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yes. On the comments on the hedging instruments, so historically, we've used just puts or vanilla puts on oil and zero cost collars on the exchange rate. The challenge for us right now is just getting them at the levels that we would like. So ideally, oil at a puts of $59 per barrel, you're going to pay north of $4 to $5 per barrel premium. That's quite rich, especially if we're trying to hedge out 22 million barrels, 23 million barrels.
是的。關於對沖工具的評論,從歷史上看,我們只使用石油的看跌期權或普通看跌期權以及匯率的零成本領式期權。我們現在面臨的挑戰是如何讓他們達到我們期望的水平。因此,理想情況下,如果原油看跌期權價格為每桶 59 美元,那麼你將支付每桶 4 至 5 美元以上的溢價。這相當可觀,尤其是如果我們要對沖 2,200 萬桶、2,300 萬桶的風險的話。
So what we've done is expanded the instruments. So we use a combination of put spreads. So we limit the downside, but we don't protect 100% of the downside, and that's in a range of around $59 to $40 per barrel.
所以我們所做的就是擴展了儀器。所以我們採用了多種看跌期權價差組合。因此,我們限制了下行風險,但我們無法 100% 避免下行風險,下行風險的範圍大約在每桶 40 美元到 59 美元之間。
And then we've also introduced some butterflies, which means that we can get the hedge floor of $59, but we give up a little bit between a certain cap on the upper end, and that we try and limit that range as much as possible. So I think my comment in my script around managing the risk but also finding an optimal level between cost while retaining some upside participation.
然後我們也引入了一些蝶式選擇權,這意味著我們可以將對沖底價設定為 59 美元,但我們在上限方面做出了一些讓步,並且我們盡量將這個範圍限制在盡可能小的範圍內。所以我認為我在腳本中提到的是管理風險,同時也要在成本和保留一定收益之間找到一個最佳平衡點。
And then we've done something similar on the rand. I think we extended our hedging program this time last year. Normally, we hedge just 12 months out. We extended it to 18 months in January of last year. And right now, obviously feel very comfortable because we've got zero cost collars between ZAR18 and ZAR22 for this period. So we're certainly in the money at the moment on our hedges, given the rand is trading close to ZAR16.
然後我們對蘭特也做了類似的事情。我認為我們去年這個時候擴大了避險計畫。通常情況下,我們只會對沖未來 12 個月的風險。去年一月,我們將期限延長至18個月。顯然,現在感覺非常舒適,因為在此期間,我們有價格在 18 至 22 南非蘭特之間的零成本項圈。鑑於蘭特兌美元匯率接近 16 蘭特,我們目前的對沖策略肯定是有利可圖的。
Moving forward, we've had to expand our instruments there because we try to target a slightly higher floor price of where we currently are at ZAR16, and that's where you'll see some more butterflies being introduced there or potentially some put spreads. But we'll continue to look at it, trying to manage cost risk and upside participation.
展望未來,我們不得不擴大該領域的工具,因為我們試圖將目標價格設定在比目前 16 南非蘭特略高的最低價位,屆時您將會看到更多蝶式期權組合或一些看跌期權價差組合的推出。但我們會繼續關注,並努力控製成本風險和潛在收益。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you for the question. Thank you, Walt. (Event Instructions)
謝謝你的提問。謝謝你,沃特。(活動須知)
Just want to check with the Chorus Call operator, are there any further people queued on Chorus Call?
我想向 Chorus Call 的接線員確認一下,Chorus Call 上還有其他人在排隊嗎?
Operator
Operator
At this stage, we don't have any further questions from the lines.
現階段,我們沒有收到任何其他來自電話線的問題。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
We have one follow-up question on International Chemicals. from Jesse Armstrong at Fairtree. Are you still confident on bringing fixed costs down by 15% by '28 versus FY24? And what percentage of restructure costs, mothballing and SAP implementation has been completed? Or do you foresee this to be completed or rolling over into FY27?
我們還有一個關於國際化學品公司的後續問題,來自 Fairtree 公司的 Jesse Armstrong。您仍有信心在 2028 年將固定成本比 2024 財年降低 15% 嗎?重組成本、停產和 SAP 實施的完成百分比是多少?還是您預計這項工作將在2027財年完成,還是會延後到2027財年?
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Baloyi - Executive Director, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I mean, Jesse, thank you for your question. Yes, we are confident. You remember, we already started with the piloting of the SAP in Italy, and that was completed. And in July 1, we will start with the implementation. Around 1 July, we will start with the implementation in Germany, and then we'll follow on through that and follow our program to do the US one. So that will allow us to further reduce our cost for International Chemicals.
是的。傑西,謝謝你的提問。是的,我們很有信心。你還記得嗎?我們已經在義大利開始了 SAP 的試點項目,而且已經完成了。7月1日,我們將開始實施。大約在 7 月 1 日,我們將在德國開始實施,然後我們將繼續推進,並按照我們的計劃在美國實施。這樣一來,我們將能夠進一步降低國際化學品採購成本。
So that program is ongoing. You can see the progress that we've made. And yes, we're confident that we'll be able to do that. If you ask about the percentage between restructure, mothballing and if you put SAP in there, I'll say, SAP cost, it does drive especially the restructure costs. I mean, it's the lion's share of that, maybe around 60%, I mean, 40% to 60% and then the balance will be the other ones.
所以這個項目還在進行中。你可以看到我們取得的進展。是的,我們有信心能夠做到這一點。如果你問重組、封存和 SAP 成本之間的百分比,我會說,SAP 成本確實會影響重組成本。我的意思是,這佔了絕大部分,大概 60% 左右,也就是 40% 到 60%,剩下的就是其他的了。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you. I think there's one final question from Thobela Bixa at Nedbank. How much did you receive from leasing your RBCT allowance? And was this leased to one or multiple operators that's in terms of coal exports?
偉大的。謝謝。我認為來自 Nedbank 的 Thobela Bixa 還有最後一個問題。你透過出租你的 RBCT 津貼獲得了多少收入?就煤炭出口而言,這塊地是租給了一家還是多家業者?
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yes. So it's more than ZAR1 billion on the export side, and it's about ZAR0.5 billion, give or take, on the leasing entitlement.
是的。因此,出口方面超過 10 億蘭特,租賃權方面約為 5 億蘭特。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you. Just want to double check if there are any more questions.
偉大的。謝謝。我想再次確認是否還有其他問題。
Operator
Operator
Confirmed, there are no further questions from the telephone lines. Thank you.
經確認,電話線路已無其他問題。謝謝。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
One last question from Gustavo Campos at Jefferies. What is the nature of the short-term and long-term financial assets? Why are they not included in net debt calculations? And why not liquidate them to reduce the leverage further?
來自傑富瑞集團的古斯塔沃·坎波斯提出了最後一個問題。短期金融資產和長期金融資產的性質分別是什麼?為什麼它們沒有計入淨債務計算?為什麼不將它們變現以進一步降低槓桿率呢?
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Walt Bruns - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
I'll take that. So there are a combination of different items. Some of them relate to also our insurance captive that we have offshore. We've historically not included -- and then we've also got some embedded derivative assets relating to our oxygen supply contract with Air Liquide. I think -- and some restricted use. So we don't have the full availability to access these, and therefore, we don't include them in our net debt calculation.
我接受。所以這裡有各種不同物品的組合。其中一些也與我們在海外設立的自保保險公司有關。我們歷來沒有將這些資產納入其中——此外,我們還有一些與液化空氣集團的氧氣供應合約相關的嵌入式衍生資產。我認為——以及一些受限的使用。因此,我們無法完全獲得這些資金,因此,我們不將它們計入淨債務計算中。
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Tiffany Sydow - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. I think there are no further questions online. No further questions from Chorus Call. So that wraps up our Q&A for today. Thank you very much to all who have joined and participated, and we wish you well and a pleasant day forward.
偉大的。我想網路上應該沒有其他問題了。合唱團沒有其他問題了。今天的問答環節就到這裡。非常感謝所有參與和加入的人,祝福你們一切順利,未來一天愉快。
Thank you.
謝謝。