智利化工礦業 (SQM) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the SQM First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly O'Brien, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎來到 SQM 2020 年第一季度收益電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Kelly O'Brien。請繼續。

Good morning. I hope everyone is healthy and well. Thank you for joining SQM's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. This conference call will be recorded and is being webcast live. You may access the webcast later on our website, www.sqm.com. Our earnings press release and a presentation with a summary of the results has been uploaded to our website where you can also find a link to this webcast.

早上好。我希望每個人都身體健康。感謝您參加 SQM 2020 年第一季度收益電話會議。此電話會議將被錄音並進行網絡直播。您稍後可以在我們的網站 www.sqm.com 上收看網絡廣播。我們的收益新聞稿和包含結果摘要的演示文稿已上傳到我們的網站，您還可以在該網站上找到該網絡廣播的鏈接。

Joining the call today as speakers are Ricardo Ramos, Chief Executive Officer; Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer; and Felipe Smith, Commercial Vice President, Lithium and Iodine, Asia Pacific.

今天加入電話會議的是首席執行官里卡多·拉莫斯 (Ricardo Ramos)； Gerardo Illanes，首席財務官； Felipe Smith，亞太區鋰和碘業務副總裁。

Before we begin, let me remind you that statements in this conference concerning the company's business outlook, future economic performances, anticipated profitability, revenues, expenses or other financial items, anticipated cost synergies and product or service line growth, together with other statements that are not historical facts, are forward-looking statements as the term is defined under federal securities laws. Any forward-looking statements are estimates reflecting the best judgment of SQM based on currently available information and involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those stated in such statements. Risks, uncertainties and factors that could affect the accuracy of such forward-looking statements are identified in our public filings made with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and in our earnings release issued yesterday. And these forward-looking statements should be considered in light of those factors. We assume no obligation to update such statements whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by laws.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，本次會議中有關公司業務前景、未來經濟表現、預期盈利能力、收入、費用或其他財務項目、預期成本協同效應和產品或服務線增長的聲明，以及其他聲明不是歷史事實，是聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。任何前瞻性陳述都是反映 SQM 根據當前可用信息做出的最佳判斷的估計，涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中所述的結果存在重大差異。可能影響此類前瞻性陳述準確性的風險、不確定性和因素已在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件和我們昨天發布的收益報告中確定。應根據這些因素考慮這些前瞻性陳述。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔因新信息、未來發展或其他原因而更新此類聲明的義務。

I now leave you with our Chief Executive Officer, Ricardo Ramos.

我現在請您與我們的首席執行官里卡多·拉莫斯 (Ricardo Ramos) 談談。

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2020 earnings conference call.

謝謝你，凱利。早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2020 年第一季度收益電話會議。

Before discussing the details of our results, I will first like to reiterate my message from last night. My first concern is and has always been the well-being and safety of our employees, their families and the communities in which we operate. We have implemented plans to help protect their health and safety, and I do believe that these measures have been helpful in reducing the number of cases and the spread of the virus within our facilities. I will certainly be remiss if I did not give credit where credit was due. The hard work and dedication of all our employees in Chile and abroad is the reason that I am able to report that today, we continue operating at normal levels, so much that production today in all our facilities is above our internal and original budget for the year. The hard work and commitment of our employees not only pertain to SQM's operation specifically. They have remained diligent in helping and providing support to our neighboring communities in the north of Chile, related to health, social well-being, economic recovery and education. Today, more than ever, these efforts are paramount. Thank you.

在討論我們結果的細節之前，我首先要重申我昨晚的信息。我首先關心的是並且一直是我們員工、他們的家人和我們經營所在社區的福祉和安全。我們已經實施了幫助保護他們健康和安全的計劃，我相信這些措施有助於減少病例數量和病毒在我們設施內的傳播。如果我沒有在應得的信用點上給予信用，我肯定會失職。我們在智利和國外的所有員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神是我今天能夠報告的原因，我們繼續在正常水平上運營，以至於今天我們所有設施的生產都超過了我們內部和最初的預算年。我們員工的辛勤工作和承諾不僅僅與 SQM 的運營有關。他們一直勤勉地幫助和支持我們在智利北部的鄰近社區，涉及健康、社會福祉、經濟復甦和教育。今天，這些努力比以往任何時候都更加重要。謝謝。

Last night, we reported earnings for the first quarter of the year of approximately $45 million, lower than the results seen during the same period last year. Our sales during the first quarter of this year were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is reasonable to expect that along with the rest of the world, we will continue to see impact in the upcoming months. During the first quarter, we saw lower average prices in lithium and derivatives. Lithium prices fell significantly during the beginning of the year as we expected. Lithium sales volumes were also lower than what we reported during the first quarter last year and lower than what we expected for this quarter. We're working to produce lithium volumes according to our original plan this year and expect to increase market share selling more than last year. However, the original expectations of market growth that we all had for this year have changed significantly because of the COVID-19. And now we expect market demand in 2020 to be similar to levels seen last year.

昨晚，我們公佈了今年第一季度的收益約為 4500 萬美元，低於去年同期的結果。我們今年第一季度的銷售額受到 COVID-19 大流行的嚴重影響，我們有理由預計，與世界其他地區一樣，我們將在未來幾個月繼續受到影響。在第一季度，我們看到鋰及其衍生品的平均價格較低。正如我們預期的那樣，年初鋰價大幅下跌。鋰的銷量也低於我們去年第一季度的報告，也低於我們對本季度的預期。我們正在努力按照我們今年的原定計劃生產鋰，並預計將比去年增加更多的市場份額。然而，由於 COVID-19，我們對今年市場增長的最初預期發生了重大變化。現在我們預計 2020 年的市場需求將與去年的水平相似。

Iodine represented a significant portion of the gross profit of the company during the first quarter. This increase was a result of higher average prices, which reach approximately $35 per kilogram during the first quarter of the year.

碘占公司第一季度毛利的很大一部分。這一增長是平均價格上漲的結果，今年第一季度平均價格達到每公斤 35 美元左右。

The fertilizer industry in some geographical markets has been deemed to essential industry during the COVID-19 outbreak. This could help minimize the economic impacts related to COVID-19 on the fertilizer market. However, it is reasonable to believe that demand growth in the water-soluble potassium nitrate market, a premium fertilizer, will not reach the original expectation of 5% to 6%.

在 COVID-19 爆發期間，某些地區市場的化肥行業被視為必不可少的行業。這可能有助於最大程度地減少與 COVID-19 相關的對化肥市場的經濟影響。但有理由相信，作為優質肥料的水溶性硝酸鉀市場需求增速將達不到原先預期的5%至6%。

In closing, we -- while the COVID-19 pandemic limited our ability to sell during the first quarter, and current global economic conditions are uncertain, making it difficult to predict the future supply and demand of the markets in which we participate, we remain positive and we expect sales volumes in most of our business lines to be higher in the upcoming quarters. We believe in the fundamentals behind long-term demand growth in the lithium, iodine, potassium nitrate and solar salts industry. As a result of this, we continue to move forward with our previously announced expansion plans to expect to bring our lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide projects online by the end of 2021.

最後，我們——雖然 COVID-19 大流行限制了我們在第一季度的銷售能力，而且當前的全球經濟狀況不確定，因此很難預測我們所參與市場的未來供需，但我們仍然積極的，我們預計在接下來的幾個季度中，我們大多數業務線的銷量都會更高。我們相信鋰、碘、硝酸鉀和日曬鹽行業長期需求增長背後的基本面。因此，我們繼續推進我們之前宣布的擴張計劃，預計到 2021 年底將我們的碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰項目上線。

I now turn the line over to Gerardo Illanes, our Chief Financial Officer.

我現在將電話轉交給我們的首席財務官 Gerardo Illanes。

Thank you, Ricardo. We have always maintained a strong balance sheet and our current situation is not different. We ended the first quarter with approximately $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. However, it is important to note that in April, we paid a $250 million bond. Our current ratio was approximately 3.2x at the end of the first quarter. As Ricardo mentioned in the press release last night, our next relevant maturity is not due until April 2023. The robust balance sheet we have always kept gives us flexibility to operate comfortably during turbulent times like the ones we find ourselves today. While our dividend policy aims to maximize return to investors, it also considers key ratios to ensure a healthy cash position.

謝謝你，里卡多。我們一直保持著強勁的資產負債表，我們目前的情況也不例外。我們在第一季度結束時擁有大約 14 億美元的現金和現金等價物。但是，值得注意的是，我們在 4 月份支付了 2.5 億美元的債券。第一季度末，我們的流動比率約為 3.2 倍。正如里卡多昨晚在新聞稿中提到的那樣，我們的下一個相關到期日要到 2023 年 4 月。我們一直保持的穩健資產負債表使我們能夠靈活地在像今天這樣的動盪時期舒適地運營。雖然我們的股息政策旨在最大限度地提高投資者回報，但它也考慮了關鍵比率以確保健康的現金狀況。

On the other hand, we continue to move ahead with our CapEx program and expect it to reach approximately $350 million this year, lower than the $450 million previously announced. This CapEx delay is a result of reduced nonessential activities in our production facilities to help protect the health and safety of our workers. Depending on the evolution of the pandemic, we should be able to accelerate our CapEx plans in 2021 and make up for any delays we see in the upcoming months.

另一方面，我們繼續推進我們的資本支出計劃，預計今年將達到約 3.5 億美元，低於之前宣布的 4.5 億美元。資本支出延遲是由於我們的生產設施減少了不必要的活動，以幫助保護我們工人的健康和安全。根據大流行的演變，我們應該能夠在 2021 年加快我們的資本支出計劃，並彌補我們在未來幾個月看到的任何延誤。

Thank you. Operator, we may now go to Q&A.

謝謝。接線員，我們現在可以進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的盧卡斯費雷拉。

I wanted to understand a bit better how has been the dynamics of the lithium demand over the last couple of months. So we are seeing China returning to normality gradually. So if you can speak about the demand and orders from China, how they've been moving. And any outlook, anything you can say about Europe. I think Europe was expected to be a good contributor of greater demand this year with higher penetration of EVs. So if you can talk about how you're seeing the European market in specific and the orders and the pipeline, that would be my first question.

我想更好地了解過去幾個月鋰需求的動態。所以我們看到中國逐漸恢復正常。所以，如果你能談談來自中國的需求和訂單，他們是如何移動的。以及關於歐洲的任何展望，任何你能說的。我認為隨著電動汽車普及率的提高，今年歐洲有望成為更大需求的重要貢獻者。因此，如果你能談談你如何具體看待歐洲市場以及訂單和管道，那將是我的第一個問題。

And the second question is on iodine. I understand it's also hard to predict what's going to happen. But we have been seeing a very healthy, I would say, price and volume dynamics, although volumes are not increasing, prices are compensating and your gross profit overall has been improving. So what's your expectation there in spite of the impact there on the volumes? Would you expect that to keep supply under control? And do you think that prices should remain at the healthy levels? That would be my second question.

第二個問題是關於碘的。我知道也很難預測會發生什麼。但是我們一直看到非常健康的價格和數量動態，儘管數量沒有增加，但價格正在補償並且您的整體毛利潤一直在提高。那麼，儘管對銷量有影響，您對那裡的期望是什麼？你希望這能控制供應嗎？您認為價格應該保持在健康水平嗎？那將是我的第二個問題。

Thank you for your question. Let me try to answer the first one about the lithium, to have an outlook, what's going on, of what we think is going on in the industry. And after that, I will ask Felipe to give more colors and detail in the iodine business. First in the lithium, as you may know, ourselves in the first quarter, as we reported, we were affected by this situation, the COVID-19. And the main effect in the first quarter was China demand. The GDP, as you know, in China was negative during the first quarter, close to 7%. And our information is that the electric cars vehicles sales during the first quarter decreased 54% compared to the first quarter '19, means it was a strong reduction. We have to consider that China was almost closed all the quarter and affected significantly the sales in that market. As you may know, our company -- our marketing strategy and sales strategy for the first quarter and for the year was very active in the Chinese market. That's why we think that I believe we reduced our sales in China during first quarter close to 2,000 metric tons. In other markets, the situation was slightly different. And other Asian demands was slightly affected in the first quarter for us, considering our original plan. And I think that the good news came from Europe during first quarter. Europe sales of our lithium was better than expected and was okay. But at the end, the effect, negative effect of China, plus some negative effect in the other Asian demand, affected our expected sales during the first quarter.

謝謝你的問題。讓我嘗試回答關於鋰的第一個問題，以了解我們認為該行業正在發生的事情的前景。在那之後，我會要求 Felipe 在碘業務中提供更多的顏色和細節。正如您所知，首先是鋰，正如我們所報告的那樣，我們在第一季度受到了這種情況 COVID-19 的影響。而一季度的主要影響是中國需求。眾所周知，中國一季度的GDP為負，接近7%。我們的信息是，第一季度的電動汽車銷量與 19 年第一季度相比下降了 54%，這意味著這是一個強勁的下降。我們必須考慮到中國幾乎整個季度都處於關閉狀態，並且對該市場的銷售產生了重大影響。如您所知，我們公司 - 我們第一季度和全年的營銷策略和銷售策略在中國市場非常活躍。這就是為什麼我們認為第一季度我們在中國的銷售額減少了近 2,000 公噸。在其他市場，情況略有不同。考慮到我們最初的計劃，其他亞洲需求在第一季度對我們略有影響。我認為第一季度來自歐洲的好消息。我們的鋰在歐洲的銷量好於預期，還不錯。但最終，中國的負面影響，加上其他亞洲需求的負面影響，影響了我們第一季度的預期銷售額。

I think that it's important to see what we're looking forward, Chinese economy is getting some recovery. And GDP growth forecast for the Q2 is expected to be positive, close to 5%, probably. And electric vehicle sales is still -- we expect to have a negative compared to the second quarter '19, but not at the level of 15%. We're talking about a level of 20%, 25% decrease. However, it's very important to consider this is a big improvement compared to the Q1. According to our information today, most of the factories in China are producing in a normal way. And after 2 months of complete shutdown, Chinese subsidies and all the government policies to stimulate economy should help. And I would think we will see a third and fourth quarter very strong.

我認為重要的是要看到我們的期待，中國經濟正在復蘇。第二季度的 GDP 增長預測預計為正，可能接近 5%。電動汽車銷量仍然——我們預計與 19 年第二季度相比會出現負增長，但不會達到 15% 的水平。我們談論的是 20%、25% 的下降水平。然而，重要的是要考慮到與 Q1 相比這是一個很大的改進。根據我們今天的消息，中國的大部分工廠都在正常生產。在完全關閉 2 個月後，中國的補貼和所有刺激經濟的政府政策應該會有所幫助。我認為我們會看到第三和第四季度非常強勁。

Cars in the other markets, it's important to consider that the virus arrived later, then the big impact that started at the end of March and continued during April. Cars producer were affected in April, especially Europe and U.S. -- and the U.S., and most of them closed their plants. Electric vehicle sales in Europe and U.S. were reduced in April, as we may know -- as we know, close to 31% and 55% in the U.S. During May, car producers started reopening their factories. And today, most of them are producing as far as we know. And Korea and Japan were less affected and did not stop production. They -- that's been very positive for us, considering that we are trying to allocate a lot of products in those markets.

其他市場的汽車，重要的是要考慮到病毒來得晚，然後是從 3 月底開始並持續到 4 月的巨大影響。汽車生產商在 4 月份受到影響，尤其是歐洲和美國——以及美國，其中大部分都關閉了工廠。正如我們所知，4 月份歐洲和美國的電動汽車銷量有所下降——據我們所知，美國的電動汽車銷量分別接近 31% 和 55%。5 月份，汽車生產商開始重新開工。而今天，據我們所知，他們中的大多數都在生產。而韓國和日本受影響較小，並沒有停產。他們——考慮到我們正試圖在這些市場分配大量產品，這對我們來說非常積極。

Regarding to the other lithium industries, remember that it's important to consider also the portable device industry, construction and grease. They will be affected, and potentially, the demand in this application could be lower than 2019 as we have been -- we had in the first 4 months of this year. With all the information we have and considering the expected reduction of customer inventories, we believe it is reasonable today, with today's informational, the demand for this year could be similar to the demand of 2019, which was close to the 312,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

關於其他鋰行業，請記住，重要的是還要考慮便攜式設備行業、建築和油脂。他們將受到影響，並且可能會像我們在今年前 4 個月那樣低於 2019 年的需求。根據我們掌握的所有信息，並考慮到客戶庫存的預期減少，我們認為今天是合理的，根據今天的信息，今年的需求可能與 2019 年的需求相似，接近 312,000 公噸鋰碳酸鹽當量。

But regarding all those facts and moving specifically to the SQM situation, we think that we are in a good position to increase our market share this year. It means that we expect to sell more this year as compared to the previous one. Of course, the situation of the market is different than the original expectation of the market. We have a lot of contract for the year with customers we have been working for many years, and they are confident we can reach our goal. We have started seeing some effects on the supply side today because of the market condition. There are few current operations that can face bad situation, and we expect that we will reach our original target -- not original, but our target to be higher than last year and to increase our market share. Anyway, we are building inventory. This inventory will help us to have better flexibility and to support our customers. And anyway, our demand in the long-term will increase. And the inventory will be very, very positive in order to face the future demand of the market.

但考慮到所有這些事實，特別是針對 SQM 的情況，我們認為今年我們處於增加市場份額的有利位置。這意味著與上一年相比，我們預計今年的銷量會更高。當然，市場的情況與市場最初的預期不同。今年我們與合作多年的客戶簽訂了很多合同，他們相信我們可以實現我們的目標。由於市場狀況，我們今天開始看到對供應方面的一些影響。目前很少有業務可以面對糟糕的情況，我們預計我們將達到我們最初的目標——不是最初的目標，而是我們的目標高於去年並增加我們的市場份額。無論如何，我們正在建立庫存。該庫存將幫助我們獲得更好的靈活性並為我們的客戶提供支持。無論如何，從長遠來看，我們的需求將會增加。而且庫存會非常非常積極，以面對市場未來的需求。

For the future and our -- I will ask Felipe to share with us what's your view before moving to the lithium. We're not in the same room with Felipe because the COVID. We are in the different places in Santiago. Santiago is under lockdown today. Felipe, if you can share with us your view about the future of the lithium in order to share your opinion about that. I'm talking about '21, '25 onward.

對於未來和我們的 - 在轉向鋰之前，我會請 Felipe 與我們分享您的看法。因為 COVID，我們和 Felipe 不在同一個房間。我們在聖地亞哥的不同地方。聖地亞哥今天處於封鎖狀態。Felipe，如果你能與我們分享你對鋰的未來的看法，以便分享你對此的看法。我說的是 21 年、25 年以後。

Okay. No problem, Ricardo. Well, if we look at the outlook of the medium and long term, I believe that the fundamentals are still there. We are estimating that in total, the lithium demand will grow after this 2020 special year. And after '21 to '25, we should have an average growth of around 20% in lithium demand, meaning that by 2025, we believe that total demand of lithium could exceed 800,000 metric tons. And these fundamentals are basically what we, let's say, expect from the OEM manufacturers. They all seem totally committed to electrification of their fleet. Also governments are pushing for this kind of -- this type of car. So all in all, I think that we have to be optimistic in the long term.

好的。沒問題，里卡多。好吧，如果我們看中長期前景，我相信基本面仍然存在。我們估計，在這個特殊的 2020 年之後，總體而言，鋰需求將增長。而在 21 年到 25 年之後，我們的鋰需求應該平均增長 20% 左右，這意味著到 2025 年，我們認為鋰的總需求量可能會超過 80 萬噸。這些基本面基本上就是我們對 OEM 製造商的期望。他們似乎都完全致力於車隊的電氣化。政府也在推動這種——這種類型的汽車。所以總而言之，我認為我們必須長期保持樂觀。

Ricardo, if I may, just a follow-up on that before we go to iodine. Can we say already that the first quarter was the weakest quarter for you in terms of sales in the year? Or it's still early to say that given that we are not yet at the end of 2Q?

里卡多，如果可以的話，只是在我們使用碘之前對此進行跟進。我們可以說第一季度是你們今年銷售額最弱的一個季度嗎？或者現在說還為時過早，因為我們還沒有到第二季度末？

Lucas, we -- according to the information we have today, we do expect that the first quarter was the weakest quarter of the year in the lithium business in volumes, certainly.

盧卡斯，我們——根據我們今天掌握的信息，我們確實預計第一季度是今年鋰業務銷量最弱的一個季度。

Felipe, please, if you can go ahead with the second part of the question regarding the iodine, what -- why you think that the iodine demand this year would be slightly or will be lower than last year, and of course, lower than originally expected?

Felipe，請問，如果你可以繼續關於碘的問題的第二部分，為什麼你認為今年的碘需求會略微或低於去年，當然，低於最初預期的？

Yes. Well, first of all, to give some context, the demand in 2019 we estimated to be close to 37,000 metric ton of iodine. Our last estimation for this year is that this demand will be around 34,500, meaning a reduction of 2,200 ton or 6.1%. And how we base this estimation, basically, the main uses of iodine or one of the main uses of iodine is X-ray contrast media. This is an application that is related to preventive medicine. So according to our customers, they explained that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people is reluctant to do examinations, and they prefer to avoid going to the hospital. So this definitely has an impact on the demand of this specific application. Also iodine is used in other applications that are very linked to the economic situation. For example, there is an application that is related to paint. And definitely, construction will be affected, we believe, this year. So that is also an application that will be negatively impacted. We foresee that electronics application for iodine will also be negatively impacted. And for the rest, there are some uses that are more related with lockdowns. For example, in the case of pharma, pharma is very concentrated in Europe and India. And especially in India, the lockdowns that we saw in March and April are affecting the demand. So we hope that this could revert in the coming months. But so far, we try to be conservative. The only applications in iodine that are more inelastic are those related to nutrition, which they have proven over the years that independent of the economic cycles, they are very resilient. So that is more or less the overview of iodine.

是的。好吧，首先，為了提供一些背景信息，我們估計 2019 年的碘需求量接近 37,000 公噸。我們對今年的最後估計是這一需求將在 34,500 噸左右，這意味著減少 2,200 噸或 6.1%。我們如何根據這一估計，基本上，碘的主要用途或碘的主要用途之一是 X 射線造影劑。這是一個與預防醫學相關的應用程序。因此，根據我們客戶的說法，他們解釋說，由於 COVID-19 大流行，人們不願意做檢查，他們更願意避免去醫院。所以這肯定會對這個特定應用的需求產生影響。碘還用於與經濟狀況密切相關的其他應用。例如，有一個與油漆相關的應用程序。我們相信，今年的建設肯定會受到影響。所以這也是一個會受到負面影響的應用程序。我們預計碘的電子應用也將受到負面影響。對於其餘部分，還有一些與鎖定更相關的用途。例如，就製藥業而言，製藥業非常集中在歐洲和印度。尤其是在印度，我們在 3 月和 4 月看到的封鎖正在影響需求。所以我們希望這可以在未來幾個月內恢復。但到目前為止，我們盡量保持保守。碘唯一沒有彈性的應用是與營養相關的應用，多年來他們已經證明，獨立於經濟周期，它們非常有彈性。這或多或少是碘的概述。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Isabella Simonato。

I would like to know about -- more about the cost structure, right? How this, the pandemic or this new environment, right, has led to eventually higher cost in your production or any sort of disruption, if you could update us on that. And regarding the CapEx that was reduced for this year, can you give us a little bit more of details if it is the postponement for 2021 and where exactly that reduction happened?

我想知道更多關於成本結構的信息，對嗎？這種流行病或這種新環境如何最終導致您的生產成本增加或任何形式的中斷，如果您可以向我們介紹最新情況。關於今年減少的資本支出，如果是 2021 年的推遲，你能不能給我們更多的細節，以及減少的確切位置？

Isabella, it is Gerardo. I'll try to answer your questions. Well, because of COVID-19, we have not seen an impact on the cost of production in any of our business lines. Actually, on the contrary, I mean, not because of COVID-19, but because of other reasons, the cost of every single product in our production process has been coming down over the past few months in iron, in potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate and lithium. Of course, the weaker Chilean peso and the lower cost of energy are, of course, helping in this regard. But we are not seeing a higher cost because of this situation. But, of course, it's taking some time for you to see them in the P&L because we have such a high level of inventories. We have more than $1 billion of inventory. That takes some time to be reflected in the results. But from a cash point of view, of course, it's having an impact right away.

伊莎貝拉，是杰拉爾多。我會盡力回答你的問題。好吧，由於 COVID-19，我們沒有看到對我們任何業務線的生產成本產生影響。實際上，恰恰相反，我的意思是，不是因為 COVID-19，而是因為其他原因，在過去幾個月裡，我們生產過程中每一種產品的成本都在下降，包括鐵、硝酸鉀、硝酸鈉和鋰。當然，疲軟的智利比索和較低的能源成本當然在這方面有所幫助。但我們並沒有因為這種情況而看到更高的成本。但是，當然，你需要一些時間才能在損益表中看到它們，因為我們的庫存水平如此之高。我們有超過 10 億美元的庫存。這需要一些時間才能反映在結果中。但從現金的角度來看，當然，它會立即產生影響。

Regarding your question about CapEx, what we have been doing more than reducing CapEx because of a financial constraint, we have been reducing the activities that are not essential in our facilities in order to make sure that we comply with the toughest recommendations to protect our people and to reduce the speed at which the virus can spread in our facilities. So because of that, we have reduced the use of contractors. We have reduced some nonessential activities and some CapEx activities that can be postponed without having a significant financial impact either on our plans to sell this year or in the upcoming years, also in the projects themselves. That's why the CapEx has been reduced from $450 million to $350 million. But well, to be more precise, the CapEx has not been reduced but delayed. And we expect that this CapEx or these expansions or these activities will be catch up as soon as the conditions allow us to bring more people in our facility.

關於您關於資本支出的問題，由於財務限制，我們所做的不僅僅是減少資本支出，我們一直在減少我們設施中不必要的活動，以確保我們遵守最嚴格的建議來保護我們的員工並降低病毒在我們設施中傳播的速度。因此，我們減少了承包商的使用。我們已經減少了一些不必要的活動和一些可以推遲的資本支出活動，而不會對我們今年或未來幾年的銷售計劃以及項目本身產生重大財務影響。這就是資本支出從 4.5 億美元減少到 3.5 億美元的原因。但是，更準確地說，資本支出並沒有減少，而是被推遲了。我們預計，一旦條件允許我們將更多人帶到我們的設施中，這種資本支出或這些擴張或這些活動就會趕上。

Regarding the most important project that we're working on, which are the expansions of lithium-related products, we are still expecting that they should be ready by the end of 2021. So we don't see a big impact there.

關於我們正在進行的最重要的項目，即鋰相關產品的擴展，我們仍然預計它們應該在 2021 年底前準備就緒。所以我們在那裡看不到很大的影響。

Our next question will come from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

This is Ziad actually on for Ben. I just have one on potash pricing actually. (inaudible) realized fairly sticky pricing at our segment despite commodity benchmark prices falling quite meaningfully over the last 2 quarters. Can you talk about how your potash versus SOP sales mix has evolved? And what should that mix be for the balance of the year moving forward? Also has there been a shift in the regional mix to account for the strong realized potash pricing?

這實際上是 Ziad 為 Ben 做的。事實上，我只有一份關於鉀肥定價的報告。（聽不清）儘管大宗商品基準價格在過去 2 個季度大幅下跌，但我們的細分市場定價相當穩定。您能談談您的鉀肥與硫酸鉀銷售組合是如何演變的嗎？在接下來的一年中，這種組合應該是什麼？區域組合是否也發生了變化以解釋強勁的已實現鉀肥定價？

Yes. As you may know, the potash price was affected in, I think, in the last 2, 3 or 4 months mainly on the China settlement of last month. It's in the -- last 2 weeks is in the same line. We do expect that potash prices, as everyone expect, to be slightly -- to be lower during the next 3 quarters as compared to the first quarter this year. We are considering that in our projections. But you should consider that we are very small in the potash industry, where this year, even though this year, we do expect to sell more than last year than we continue with this expectation, we can select the market where we try to approach. And I would -- I think that the effect, the net effect will not be as high as originally expected, this price reduction. But anyway, we are expecting and we know that the price of potash today is lower than what used to be probably 1 year ago or 6 months ago, and we are considering this in our projections for the next few quarters. Just we know that we are selling, as you know, very important volumes in Brazilian market. Brazilian market's been affected probably with the -- it's been affected today with the price environment of the potash. And by the volumes, we do know that the volumes for SQM for the rest of the year will be higher. And we expect to be close to 700,000 metric tons of potash sales during this year as a total volume. I don't -- I mean, first, it's going to be affected, the margins, due to the price environment, of course, yes.

是的。如您所知，我認為過去 2、3 或 4 個月鉀肥價格主要受到上個月中國結算的影響。它在 - 過去 2 週在同一條線上。正如大家預期的那樣，我們確實預計未來 3 個季度的鉀肥價格將比今年第一季度略低。我們在我們的預測中考慮到了這一點。但你應該考慮到我們在鉀肥行業的規模很小，今年，儘管今年，我們確實預計銷量會超過去年，但我們繼續保持這種預期，我們可以選擇我們試圖接近的市場。而且我會 - 我認為效果，淨效果不會像最初預期的那樣高，這種降價。但無論如何，我們預計並且知道今天的鉀肥價格可能低於 1 年前或 6 個月前的價格，我們在未來幾個季度的預測中會考慮到這一點。正如您所知，我們只知道我們在巴西市場銷售非常重要的數量。巴西市場可能受到了影響——今天鉀肥的價格環境受到了影響。根據數量，我們確實知道今年剩餘時間 SQM 的數量會更高。我們預計今年的鉀肥總銷量將接近 700,000 公噸。我不——我的意思是，首先，由於價格環境，利潤率會受到影響，當然，是的。

Our next question will come from Alex Falcao with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題將來自匯豐銀行的 Alex Falcao。

I just wanted to talk specifically on China. I know that you -- I just want to talk after -- for the month of May, we've seen a pickup there on at least locally for -- at least for production. It seems like there's a -- the supply side has been -- some of these companies have basically shut down even in Australia. I just wanted to know if -- when you talk to your people on the ground and the -- I know you don't sell really on the spot market, but I just wanted to know, specifically for Asia and for China, is -- May seems to be an inflection point. You comment that probably the worst is over, and first quarter is going to be the worst quarter of the year. I was just trying to gauge if you have more details specifically for China and what you sell there.

我只是想專門談談中國。我知道你——我只想在 5 月份之後談談——我們至少在當地看到了一個皮卡——至少在生產中。似乎有一個 - 供應方面已經 - 其中一些公司甚至在澳大利亞基本上已經關閉。我只是想知道如果 - 當你與當地人交談時 - 我知道你並沒有真正在現貨市場上銷售，但我只是想知道，特別是對於亞洲和中國，是 - - 五月似乎是一個拐點。您評論說最糟糕的情況可能已經過去，第一季度將成為今年最糟糕的季度。我只是想判斷您是否有更多專門針對中國的詳細信息以及您在那裡銷售的產品。

Thank you, Alex. I will ask Felipe. Felipe is in direct touch with the China people, our team there, in a daily basis. And I think he can share with us his thoughts about what's going on in China as we speak, what we expect in the few -- in the next months. Felipe, please?

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。我會問費利佩。Felipe 每天都與中國人、我們在那裡的團隊直接接觸。我認為他可以與我們分享他對中國正在發生的事情的看法，以及我們對未來幾個月的預期。費利佩，好嗎？

Yes. Well, first of all, we need to remember that we entered year 2020 with high stock levels in China, okay? So we were expecting anyway a lower amount of sales versus the total year in the first quarter, but the pandemic situation that started in China affected seriously the demand, okay? So this already high inventory levels that were carried out to 2020 would take much longer now in being depleted. As a matter of fact, we believe it will take several months. And therefore, this recovery that we see in the business itself not necessarily will be reflected in a good sales recovery, because, again, the demand is affected there. So we will have to see over the next months. We have to be conservative in our estimations, but we still believe that our sales over the next quarters in China will be increasing. We have good signs from customers that this will be the case. But again, there is a lot of uncertainty that we need to see.

是的。那麼，首先，我們需要記住，我們進入了 2020 年，中國的庫存水平很高，好嗎？因此，無論如何，我們預計第一季度的銷售額與全年相比會有所下降，但從中國開始的大流行嚴重影響了需求，好嗎？因此，一直到 2020 年的這種已經很高的庫存水平現在需要更長的時間才能耗盡。事實上，我們認為這需要幾個月的時間。因此，我們在業務本身中看到的這種複蘇不一定會反映在良好的銷售復甦中，因為那裡的需求再次受到影響。所以我們將不得不在接下來的幾個月裡看到。我們的估計必須保守，但我們仍然相信我們未來幾個季度在中國的銷售額將會增加。我們從客戶那裡得到了良好的跡象，表明情況會如此。但同樣，我們需要看到很多不確定性。

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

I have 2 questions. I'm going to ask them one at a time. Ricardo, so if I listen to your commentary, tell me if I'm right or wrong, so you still -- SQM still expects to produce about 65,000 to 70,000 tons of LCE this year of lithium. You still expect to gain a bit of share. But if that's the case, in a flat demand environment, you expect to build a lot more inventory this year than you thought 3 months ago -- 2 months ago. Is that correct?

我有兩個問題。我要一個一個地問他們。里卡多，所以如果我聽你的評論，請告訴我我是對還是錯，所以你仍然 - SQM 仍然預計今年將生產約 65,000 至 70,000 噸 LCE 的鋰。您仍然希望獲得一些份額。但如果是這樣的話，在需求平穩的環境下，您預計今年的庫存將比 3 個月前——2 個月前想像的要多得多。那是對的嗎？

Yes. Of course, that is correct. We do expect to produce between 65,000 to 70,000, even though we are going to increase our market share. Considering the flat environment we expect and the total demand, our inventory will be increased this year. But it's a healthy level of inventory that will help us in the future demand growth environment.

是的。當然，這是正確的。我們確實希望生產 65,000 到 70,000 輛，儘管我們要增加我們的市場份額。考慮到我們預期的平坦環境和總需求，我們今年的庫存將增加。但這是一個健康的庫存水平，將在未來的需求增長環境中幫助我們。

So if I follow up on that, I mean, you got -- competitors are also building new supply. You have a bit of a stalling of demand this year. You just talked about -- Felipe just talked about inventory in China has been larger than you would have thought by now. Do you not get worried on the price of lithium here because a lot of inventory are ready, you're building inventory and there's competitor supply additions on top?

因此，如果我對此進行跟進，我的意思是，你得到了 - 競爭對手也在建立新的供應。今年你的需求有點停滯。你剛剛談到 - Felipe 剛剛談到中國的庫存比你現在想像的要大。您是否不擔心這裡的鋰價格，因為大量庫存已準備就緒，您正在建立庫存，而且競爭對手的供應量還在增加？

I cannot speak about the other competitors' inventories. But considering SQM inventory, of course, is -- my inventory is not as huge as affecting the financial situation of the company. I have a different opinion. I think that our inventory is an -- element of flexibility we have. We strongly believe in the fundamentals of the industry, and having these inventories are good news for us. We are -- it will not affect our market strategy, our market pricing inventory, of course, not. We are looking for market share increase. We will get it, and that's exactly what we expect to have. We -- if the market is lower for the specific reason already coming to you for the COVID-19, of course, the total volumes will be lower, but our target of the market share will be there. The excess of inventory, it's good news in order to have inventory for the future and affect -- and having the flexibility for the market. It means that the additional inventory is not an effect of the price environment in the terms of the inventory of SQM. About the inventory of our competitors, of course, I cannot comment what it's going to be their business strategy so far.

我不能談論其他競爭對手的庫存。但考慮到 SQM 庫存，當然是——我的庫存並沒有影響公司財務狀況那麼大。我有不同的看法。我認為我們的庫存是我們擁有的靈活性元素。我們堅信行業的基本面，擁有這些庫存對我們來說是個好消息。我們 - 它不會影響我們的市場戰略，我們的市場定價庫存，當然不會。我們正在尋求市場份額的增加。我們會得到它，而這正是我們所期望的。我們——如果市場因 COVID-19 的特定原因而走低，當然，總銷量會降低，但我們的市場份額目標將在那裡。庫存過剩，這是個好消息，以便為未來和影響庫存，並為市場提供靈活性。這意味著額外的庫存不是價格環境對 SQM 庫存的影響。關於我們競爭對手的庫存，當然，我無法評論他們到目前為止的商業戰略。

So are you comfortable running about 6 months of inventory? Because if I do your math, you'll end this year with about 6 months of your 2020 sales volume. 2020 sales volume, your inventory will be about half of that by the end of the year. Are you comfortable with that?

那麼，您是否願意運行大約 6 個月的庫存？因為如果我算一下，你今年年底的 2020 年銷量將達到大約 6 個月。2020年的銷量，到年底你們的庫存大概是一半。你覺得舒服嗎？

Yes. I'm comfortable with that. You have to consider that, as Felipe mentioned before, we do expect that sales in 2025 will be in excess of 815,000 metric tons of lithium. I mean having inventory, using my capacity today to produce is a very good business because we need to increase our capacity in the future anyway. And if we can operate at full capacity today -- production facility is the best way to use our fixed assets, considering that we do expect that we will significantly increase our sales in the next 3 years. That's why having inventory and considering the expected volumes is a very good news.

是的。我對此很滿意。你必須考慮到，正如 Felipe 之前提到的，我們確實預計 2025 年的鋰銷量將超過 815,000 公噸。我的意思是擁有庫存，利用我今天的能力來生產是一項非常好的業務，因為我們無論如何都需要在未來增加我們的能力。如果我們今天能夠滿負荷運轉——生產設施是使用我們固定資產的最佳方式，考慮到我們確實預計我們將在未來 3 年內顯著增加我們的銷售額。這就是為什麼擁有庫存並考慮預期數量是一個非常好的消息。

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kelly O'Brien for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Kelly O'Brien 的閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining. A summary of the results on this call will be posted on our website. Please stay healthy.

謝謝大家的加入。本次電話會議的結果摘要將發佈在我們的網站上。請保持健康。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。