Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Spotify's third quarter 2019 financial results question-and-answer session.

歡迎來到 Spotify 2019 年第三季度財務業績問答環節。

A copy of the company's shareholder letter, issued premarket open today, is available on the Investor Relations website, investors.spotify.com.

今日開盤前發行的公司股東信的副本可在投資者關係網站investors.spotify.com 上查閱。

This call is being recorded and an archived replay will be available on the IR site after the event concludes.

此次通話正在錄音，活動結束後將在 IR 網站上提供存檔重播。

I will now turn the call over to Paul Vogel, Investor Head of -- Head of Investor Relations and FP&A.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和 FP&A 的投資者主管 Paul Vogel。

You may now begin your conference.

你現在可以開始你的會議了。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, and welcome to Spotify's third quarter 2019 earnings conference call.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Spotify 2019 年第三季度財報電話會議。

With us today are Daniel Ek, Spotify's CEO; and Barry McCarthy, Spotify's CFO.

今天和我們在一起的是 Spotify 的首席執行官 Daniel Ek；和 Spotify 的首席財務官 Barry McCarthy。

The format of today's call will be similar to prior quarters.

今天電話會議的形式將與前幾個季度相似。

Daniel will give brief opening remarks, followed by an online question-and-answer session.

Daniel 將發表簡短的開場白，隨後是在線問答環節。

Questions can be submitted either through the widget alongside the webcast or by e-mailing directly to ir@spotify.com.

問題可以通過網絡廣播旁邊的小部件提交，也可以通過電子郵件直接發送至 ir@spotify.com。

We'll get through as many questions as we can.

我們會盡可能多地回答問題。

The call will last approximately 30 minutes.

通話將持續大約 30 分鐘。

Before we begin, let me quickly cover the safe harbor.

在我們開始之前，讓我快速覆蓋安全港。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including projections or estimates about the future performance of the company.

在本次電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括對公司未來業績的預測或估計。

These estimates are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些估計基於受風險和不確定性影響的當前預期和假設。

Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed on today's call and in our letter to shareholders and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於今天的電話會議以及我們致股東的信函和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中討論的因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

During this call, we will refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考某些非 IFRS 財務指標。

Reconciliation between our IFRS and non-IFRS financial measures can be found in our letter to shareholders on the financial sections of the Investor Relations page of our website and also furnished today on Form 6-K.

我們的 IFRS 和非 IFRS 財務措施之間的對賬可以在我們網站投資者關係頁面財務部分的致股東信中找到，今天也在表格 6-K 中提供。

And with that, I will turn it over to Daniel.

有了這個，我會把它交給丹尼爾。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Before we discuss results, I would like to point out that today's investor letter discloses that Barry McCarthy will retire from Spotify on January 15, 2020.

在我們討論結果之前，我想指出，今天的投資者信函披露，巴里麥卡錫將於 2020 年 1 月 15 日從 Spotify 退休。

During his almost 5 years with us, Barry played a pivotal role in our direct listing and has been instrumental in helping to establish us as a trusted public company.

在他為我們工作的近 5 年裡，Barry 在我們的直接上市中發揮了關鍵作用，並在幫助我們將我們打造為值得信賴的上市公司方面發揮了重要作用。

Barry will be passing the torch to Paul Vogel, our current Head of FP&A, Treasury and Investor Relations.

Barry 將把火炬傳遞給我們現任 FP&A、財務和投資者關係主管 Paul Vogel。

Paul is no stranger to all of you, and he and Barry have worked closely together for some time.

保羅對你們所有人都不陌生，他和巴里已經密切合作了一段時間。

As you may also know, before Barry stepped into his operating role, he was a member of our Board of Directors.

您可能也知道，在 Barry 擔任運營職務之前，他是我們的董事會成員。

And subject to shareholder approval, I look forward to having him rejoin the Board in 2020.

經股東批准，我期待他在 2020 年重新加入董事會。

We are pleased that Barry will remain involved with our future growth.

我們很高興 Barry 將繼續參與我們未來的發展。

And I'm confident we will have a smooth CFO transition.

我相信我們將有一個平穩的首席財務官過渡。

I can't thank Barry enough for all that he has helped us accomplish, and I'm looking forward to working with him on the Board and with Paul in his new capacity as CFO.

我非常感謝 Barry 幫助我們完成的所有工作，我期待與他一起在董事會工作，並期待與 Paul 以 CFO 的新身份合作。

Barry's news comes on the heels of strong third quarter results.

巴里的消息是在強勁的第三季度業績之後發布的。

The business met or exceeded our expectations by every measure.

該業務在各個方面都達到或超過了我們的預期。

This quarter showed continued strong growth in users as MAU exceeded our expectations while showing another quarter of accelerating growth.

本季度用戶持續強勁增長，因為 MAU 超出了我們的預期，同時又顯示出另一個季度的加速增長。

Both subscribers and revenue finished slightly ahead of plan, and our gross margin finished above our guidance range.

訂戶和收入均略超計劃，我們的毛利率高於我們的指導範圍。

We're also pleased that we delivered positive operating income and the eighth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow.

我們也很高興我們實現了正的營業收入和連續第八個季度的正自由現金流。

You'll remember in February that we announced our intention to become the world's leading audio platform.

您會記得，我們在二月份宣布了成為世界領先音頻平台的目標。

We made the strategic bet that music and podcasts are additive and that users would enjoy having podcasts as part of their Spotify experience.

我們做出戰略賭注，即音樂和播客是相輔相成的，用戶會喜歡將播客作為他們 Spotify 體驗的一部分。

We're seeing evidence that this step is paying off with signs of increased engagements and higher conversion rates from free to paid.

我們看到有證據表明，這一步驟正在獲得回報，有跡象表明參與度增加以及從免費到付費的更高轉化率。

We're encouraged, and we intend to continue to invest against this early success.

我們受到鼓舞，我們打算繼續投資於這一早期的成功。

Overall, we're really pleased with the quarter and the momentum we're having entering the last quarter of the year.

總的來說，我們對這個季度以及我們進入今年最後一個季度的勢頭感到非常滿意。

Now Paul, let's open the call to questions.

現在，保羅，讓我們開始提問。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Daniel.

謝謝，丹尼爾。

Our first question comes from Eric Sheridan at UBS on the podcast strategy.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Eric Sheridan 關於播客策略的問題。

Can you help us understand how assets acquired to date to accomplish the podcast strategy have been integrated with the company?

您能否幫助我們了解迄今為止為完成播客戰略而獲得的資產是如何與公司整合的？

How do you think about using M&A to bolster content and production capabilities compared to organic investment in 2020 and beyond?

與 2020 年及以後的有機投資相比，您如何看待使用併購來增強內容和生產能力？

We've really just begun the overall integration between the companies, but you can see already in this quarter that we have announced a number of different originals, both from Parcast and from Gimlet.

我們實際上才剛剛開始公司之間的整體整合，但您已經可以在本季度看到我們已經宣布了許多不同的原創作品，包括來自 Parcast 和 Gimlet。

I'm really pleased with the early results from those.

我對這些的早期結果感到非常滿意。

And obviously, over time, you should expect us to increase the number of original productions that we want to make.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，您應該期望我們增加我們想要製作的原創作品的數量。

Next question comes from Ross Sandler of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的羅斯桑德勒。

Paul, any philosophical change as to you plan on running things as CFO from how Barry ran things?

保羅，關於你計劃以首席財務官的身份經營事情，與巴里的經營方式相比，有什麼哲學上的改變嗎？

And then secondly, any additional color on the as reported gross margin compression in the quarter?

其次，本季度報告的毛利率壓縮是否有任何其他顏色？

I'll take the first part.

我將採取第一部分。

No, Ross.

不，羅斯。

Obviously, Barry spent a lot of time building up an organization to go public, and an organization that's running really, really well.

顯然，巴里花了很多時間建立一個上市的組織，以及一個運行得非常非常好的組織。

So my plan is just keep things going as they are, and I don't expect any major changes at all in terms of how the org is run or operates.

因此，我的計劃只是讓事情保持原樣，並且我預計組織的運行或運營方式不會有任何重大變化。

And I'll then take -- turn it over to Barry for the ads question.

然後，我將把它交給巴里處理廣告問題。

Why don't you do it.

你為什麼不這樣做。

So on the ads question, on the gross margin compression in the quarter, there was a couple of things year-over-year.

因此，在廣告問題上，在本季度的毛利率壓縮方面，有幾件事與去年同期相比發生了變化。

One would be some of the [MGs] around new market launches that impacted the quarter, and there was a little bit also on some of the content -- nonmusic content that hit as well, which is what caused a slight decline year-over-year on the ads side on the gross margin.

一個是圍繞新市場發布的一些 [MG] 影響了本季度，並且在一些內容上也有一點——非音樂內容也受到影響，這是導致同比略有下降的原因——一年在廣告方面的毛利率。

Our next question comes from Doug Anmuth at JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

Can you provide us with an update on where you are with the label negotiations?

您能否向我們提供有關您在標籤談判中的最新進展？

What are the key outstanding factors here?

這裡的關鍵突出因素是什麼？

Can we still expect margins on the core music business to be stable?

我們還能期望核心音樂業務的利潤率保持穩定嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's really no new updates on the timing.

時間上真的沒有新的更新。

As we said last quarter, this is our sixth major renegotiation in our 13-year history, and there's really nothing different regarding this round.

正如我們上個季度所說，這是我們 13 年曆史上的第六次重大重新談判，這一輪確實沒有什麼不同。

Just again to up-level what we said, we don't expect any material differences, with the exception of the introduction of the marketplace strategy, which you can see that we're rolling out this quarter with sponsored listing as just one example.

再次升級我們所說的內容，我們預計不會有任何實質性差異，除了引入市場戰略，您可以看到我們在本季度推出的讚助列表只是一個例子。

I would say, aside from that, we do see some scale economies in the business in the other content cost -- other cost of revenue line associated with reduction in streaming costs, reduction in customer service as a percent of revenue and reduction in payment fees as a percent of revenue.

我想說，除此之外，我們確實在其他內容成本方面看到了業務的一些規模經濟——與流媒體成本降低、客戶服務佔收入百分比降低和支付費用降低相關的其他收入線成本作為收入的百分比。

In this quarter, those were offset by a couple of onetime nonrecurring charges in the biz.

在本季度，這些被商業中的幾次一次性非經常性費用所抵消。

Our next question comes from Ben Swinburne at Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ben Swinburne。

How much of the advertising revenue volatility versus expectations is due to the nature of digital audio advertising as an ecosystem, lack of standards measurements, advertiser buy in, or simply internal execution?

廣告收入波動與預期之間有多少是由於數字音頻廣告作為生態系統的性質、缺乏標準衡量標準、廣告商購買或僅僅是內部執行？

Do you expect the business to match you guidance more closely in the future?

您是否希望該業務在未來更緊密地匹配您的指導？

Excluding execution, none of it.

排除執行，沒有。

So about 80% of the underperformance in the quarter was related to our dropping the ball on the implementation of a new operating system.

因此，本季度約 80% 的表現不佳與我們在實施新操作系統時失手有關。

We moved off of Google ad stack that had been sunset.

我們離開了已經日落的谷歌廣告堆棧。

And so the core thing I would want you to know is that there was demand for that product.

所以我想讓你知道的核心是對該產品的需求。

We were just simply unable to run it on the sites.

我們只是無法在網站上運行它。

And the ad business today is performing strongly.

今天的廣告業務表現強勁。

So I own that miss.

所以我擁有那個小姐。

It's embarrassing, but it's not related to the strength of the biz.

很尷尬，不過和商業實力沒關係。

Next question comes from Mark Mahaney at RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Mark Mahaney。

In your shareholder letter, you mentioned that a portion of the faster MAU growth was a result of continued product innovation.

在您的股東信中，您提到 MAU 快速增長的一部分是持續產品創新的結果。

Can you speak a little more about which of those product innovations you saw worked best?

您能否多談談您看到的哪些產品創新效果最好？

Well, it's really a number of different things, one of them being we rolled out Spotify Lite in the emerging market.

嗯，這確實有很多不同的東西，其中之一是我們在新興市場推出了 Spotify Lite。

That is a mass of things when you're looking at data cost being a big contributor factor.

當您將數據成本視為一個重要因素時，這是一大堆事情。

We improved the quality of recommendations for new users coming to the service.

我們提高了為使用該服務的新用戶推薦的質量。

We added a 7-day trial early on in the flow.

我們在流程的早期添加了一個 7 天的試用期。

There's just simply a lot of different executional things that we added this quarter.

我們在本季度添加了許多不同的執行內容。

And it's that kind of pace of many small additions that then adds up to overall stronger engagement, then overall then stronger retention on our sort of core user behaviors.

正是這種許多小添加的速度，然後加起來整體上更強大的參與度，然後整體上，然後在我們的核心用戶行為上得到更強的保留。

And the cumulative effects are starting to drive faster growth in the top of the funnel.

累積效應開始推動漏斗頂部的更快增長。

By way of example, we're seeing pretty significant increases in MAU retention.

例如，我們看到 MAU 留存率顯著增加。

If you look at it over time, we're seeing significant increases in overall engagement and particularly if you factor in the effects of podcasts.

如果您隨著時間的推移觀察它，我們會發現整體參與度顯著增加，特別是如果您考慮到播客的影響。

And so there's lots of goodness happening in the ecosystem that's contributing to driving a virtuous cycle.

因此，生態系統中發生了很多好事，有助於推動良性循環。

Mostly to date, we've only talked about the costs associated with that, but increasingly, you'll hear us talking about the benefits.

迄今為止，大多數情況下，我們只討論了與此相關的成本，但您會越來越多地聽到我們談論好處。

Next question comes from Matt Thornton at SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Matt Thornton。

SPOT has been testing a 3-month free trial up from 1 month and in line with Apple Music in between SPOTS's usual biannual commercial campaigns in 2Q and 4Q.

SPOT 一直在測試從 1 個月延長到 3 個月的免費試用期，並在 SPOTS 通常在 2Q 和 4Q 的兩年一度的商業活動之間與 Apple Music 保持一致。

Why the tests?

為什麼要進行測試？

Any lift in 3Q '19 subscribers from the test?

19 年第 3 季度的訂戶是否從測試中得到提升？

And what are the findings going forward -- go forward implications from the test?

未來的研究結果是什麼——從測試中向前推進？

Paul, it didn't have any material impact on our subscriber growth in the quarter.

保羅，這對我們本季度的訂戶增長沒有任何實質性影響。

You should really just look at this as us improving our overall customer proposition, and I think this brings us more in line with what we've seen competition do as well.

你真的應該把它看作是我們改進我們的整體客戶主張，我認為這使我們更符合我們所看到的競爭所做的事情。

Most of our competition, for instance already, since the last year, were on a 90-day trial.

例如，自去年以來，我們的大部分比賽已經進行了 90 天的試用。

So we just brought it to where competition already is, but it didn't have any material impact in the quarter.

所以我們只是把它帶到了競爭已經存在的地方，但它在本季度沒有任何實質性影響。

Yes.

是的。

And actually, it had no impact in the quarter, not just non-material, so as compared with our original expectations.

實際上，與我們最初的預期相比，它在本季度沒有影響，不僅僅是非物質的。

So it was done for the other reasons that Daniel articulated.

所以這樣做是出於丹尼爾闡明的其他原因。

There will be an effect on how some of the costs of the program were reflected in the P&L.

該計劃的一些成本如何反映在損益表中將會產生影響。

That's between marketing and gross margin, and Paul can talk to you about that off-line.

這介於營銷和毛利率之間，Paul 可以離線與您討論。

Next question comes from Jessica Reif at Bank of America Merrill.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Jessica Reif。

Two-sided marketplace.

雙邊市場。

What are the typical economics of the promotional activity that allow labels to promote new releases?

允許唱片公司推廣新版本的促銷活動的典型經濟學是什麼？

Are there protections in place to protect the integrity of the user experience?

是否有適當的保護措施來保護用戶體驗的完整性？

The most important thing, obviously, is the user experience affecting that.

顯然，最重要的是影響它的用戶體驗。

That's why when we rolled out the product, we were also very clear with 2 things: One is if you're a paying customer, you have the opportunity of turning off the sponsored listing.

這就是為什麼當我們推出產品時，我們也非常清楚兩件事：一是如果你是付費客戶，你有機會關閉贊助列表。

We expect most not to do that because this is actually a widely asked core feature by our customers.

我們希望大多數人不要這樣做，因為這實際上是我們的客戶廣泛詢問的核心功能。

And then, two, in terms of how this works, it's essentially like many other sponsored products that you would expect to see on various type of marketplaces, like Amazon or Google, where there is a bidding model for it.

然後，第二，就其運作方式而言，它本質上就像您希望在各種類型的市場（如亞馬遜或谷歌）上看到的許多其他贊助產品，其中有一個競標模型。

Next question comes from Rich Greenfield at LightShed Partners.

下一個問題來自 LightShed Partners 的 Rich Greenfield。

Barry, could you reflect on your tenure at Spotify, particularly the past 18 months since hitting the public market?

巴里，你能回顧一下你在 Spotify 的任期，尤其是上市後的 18 個月嗎？

Since stock is down slightly over that period, what is the market missing?

由於股票在此期間略有下跌，市場缺少什麼？

Is there anything you would have done differently?

你有什麼不同的做法嗎？

Well, I would've located the company in California.

好吧，我會把公司設在加利福尼亞。

There's a lot of parallels.

有很多相似之處。

There are many differences, but there are lots of parallels between the way the stock market relates to Spotify and the stock market related to Netflix.

有很多不同之處，但股票市場與 Spotify 相關的方式與股票市場與 Netflix 相關的方式有很多相似之處。

And there were long periods of time when -- before the stock market kind of figured out Netflix and just like it will eventually figure out Spotify.

並且有很長一段時間——在股票市場發現 Netflix 之前，就像它最終會發現 Spotify 一樣。

So streaming was to Netflix as podcasting is to Spotify.

因此，流媒體之於 Netflix，就像播客之於 Spotify。

And there was a time when we increased investment in streaming in Netflix at the expense of the P&L and before we began to talk with investors about the goodness that would come as a result of the increased spending and the growth in the TAM.

曾經有一段時間，我們以損益為代價增加了對 Netflix 流媒體的投資，在我們開始與投資者討論增加支出和 TAM 增長帶來的好處之前。

So in October of last year, for the first time, you heard us begin to speak about the increased investment and the erosion in margin.

因此，去年 10 月，您第一次聽到我們開始談論投資增加和利潤率下降。

And we said absolutely nothing about the benefits that would be associated with the spending.

我們完全沒有提到與支出相關的好處。

So of course, the stock went down.

所以當然，股票下跌。

But the benefits over the long term I think are quite clear.

但我認為從長遠來看的好處是非常明顯的。

And eventually, The Street will figure it out.

最終，The Street 會弄清楚的。

It's going to drive a virtuous cycle.

這將推動一個良性循環。

The only question is, how big will it be and will it be a winner-take-all marketplace?

唯一的問題是，它會有多大，會成為贏家通吃的市場嗎？

But we can see in video that streaming wins and linear dies.

但我們可以在視頻中看到流媒體獲勝而線性消亡。

Same thing is going to happen in audio.

同樣的事情也會發生在音頻中。

That means broadcast radio is going to dip.

這意味著廣播電台將下降。

Who remains, who eventually becomes dominant in that space is a game still to be played.

誰留下來，誰最終在那個領域佔據主導地位，這是一場仍有待發揮的遊戲。

So at the moment, we're the largest and I think competitively advantaged.

所以目前，我們是最大的，我認為具有競爭優勢。

And it's our game to lose.

這是我們輸掉的遊戲。

Next question comes from Heath Terry at Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Heath Terry。

You disaggregate the leverage you saw in core music royalty cost.

你分解了你在核心音樂版稅成本中看到的槓桿作用。

Did the rise in MAU relative to Premium subscribers contribute to nonmusic consumption?

MAU 相對於 Premium 訂閱者的上升是否有助於非音樂消費？

Did new royalty agreements you signed with 2 of your major label partners help?

您與 2 個主要標籤合作夥伴簽署的新版稅協議有幫助嗎？

Anything else?

還要別的嗎？

No, actually.

不，實際上。

I'm not going to disaggregate it for you.

我不會為你分解它。

And yes, new agreements are helping.

是的，新協議正在發揮作用。

There's levers that we are seeing, but nothing more to say about it.

我們看到了一些槓桿，但沒什麼可說的。

Yes.

是的。

I would say the only thing I would add Heath on the margin side is just that we did benefit from Premium being a little bit better than ads.

我想說，我唯一要在邊際方面添加 Heath 的就是我們確實受益於 Premium 比廣告好一點。

In the quarter, Premium gross margins are higher than the free business gross margins.

本季度，Premium 毛利率高於免費業務毛利率。

So in -- the Premium business is a little bit better.

因此，高級業務要好一些。

It's going to help the overall gross margins, which did have an impact on the quarter.

這將有助於整體毛利率，這確實對本季度產生了影響。

In the quarter that was the principal driver of the margin expansion.

在本季度，這是利潤率擴張的主要推動力。

But as it relates to the label agreement, to reiterate what Daniel has said in previous calls and Paul and me, these negotiations are not about expansion of margin.

但由於它與標籤協議有關，重申丹尼爾在之前的電話以及保羅和我所說的話，這些談判不是關於擴大利潤。

This is about enabling the 2-sided marketplace and podcast initiatives.

這是關於啟用雙面市場和播客計劃。

Next question comes from Justin Patterson at Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Justin Patterson。

How should we think about the phasing of podcast costs into the income statement?

我們應該如何考慮將播客成本逐步納入損益表？

Given the exponential growth in hours and positive engagement trends, how do those changes feed [in which] you invest in content?

鑑於工作時間的指數增長和積極的參與趨勢，這些變化如何影響您在內容上的投資？

Finally, which levers are most important towards driving profitability from podcast investment?

最後，哪些槓桿對於推動播客投資的盈利能力最重要？

Well, we're going to talk to you about the scale of the podcast investment next quarter.

好吧，我們將在下個季度與您討論播客投資的規模。

From the language we included in this quarter's investor letter, it should be your expectation that we'll likely lean into that more aggressively because of the success we're having, and you should feel good about that.

從我們在本季度的投資者信函中包含的語言來看，您應該期望我們可能會因為我們所取得的成功而更加積極地傾向於這一點，您應該對此感到滿意。

One.

一。

Two, as it relates to expensing of podcast content, we first figure out what the useful life of the content is.

第二，因為它涉及到播客內容的費用，我們首先要弄清楚內容的使用壽命是多少。

And then we amortize the content on an accelerated basis over the useful life.

然後我們在使用壽命內加速攤銷內容。

And then every quarter, we revisit our assumptions about useful life to make sure that they actually accurately reflect the experience we're seeing on the website.

然後每個季度，我們都會重新審視我們對使用壽命的假設，以確保它們確實準確地反映了我們在網站上看到的體驗。

And so over time, what I expect to happen is that the useful life will increase as the audience and audience engagement increases [still].

所以隨著時間的推移，我期望發生的是，隨著觀眾和觀眾參與度的增加，使用壽命會增加[仍然]。

Next question comes from John Egbert at Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 John Egbert。

Is it your expectation that offering 90-day free trials year around might smooth out the seasonality in subscriber additions we've seen in recent years?

您是否期望全年提供 90 天免費試用可能會消除我們近年來看到的訂戶增加的季節性？

Could you help us think about how to best forecast the incremental cost impact of the extra 2 months of free streaming?

您能否幫助我們思考如何最好地預測額外 2 個月的免費流媒體對增量成本的影響？

Are meaningful portion of gross adds eligible for 3 months free?

總增加的有意義部分是否有資格免費使用 3 個月？

It will likely smooth out the net adds across the year, although we still expect there to be a holiday uptick just generally of the buying patterns that we're seeing.

它可能會消除全年的淨增加，儘管我們仍然預計我們所看到的購買模式總體上會出現假期上升。

And I'll let Barry respond to the other question.

我會讓巴里回答另一個問題。

We're not expecting to see a significant increase in overall acquisition cost, although the buckets of acquisition cost might shift.

我們預計總體購置成本不會顯著增加，儘管購置成本可能會發生變化。

Next question comes from Kevin Rippey at Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Kevin Rippey。

On transition from DoubleClick, does this challenge persist until we anniversary the impact?

從 DoubleClick 過渡後，這一挑戰是否會持續到我們週年紀念影響？

Or is this a onetime slowdown by way of transition to the new software?

或者這是過渡到新軟件的一次減速？

Well, normally, we deliver about 99.5% of what we sold.

好吧，通常情況下，我們交付了大約 99.5% 的銷售量。

We're currently delivering 97.5%.

我們目前正在交付 97.5%。

So there is some small residual tax on the business.

因此，對業務有一些小的剩餘稅。

We've built that into our forecast for Q4.

我們已將其納入第四季度的預測。

And my expectation is that we return the delivery rates back to 97 -- or excuse me, 99.5%.

我的期望是我們將交付率恢復到 97——或者對不起，99.5%。

Next question comes from Brian Russo at Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Brian Russo。

Regarding the price increase test for Family Plan in Scandinavia, can you update on what the response has been for your members so far in terms of both gross adds and churn?

關於斯堪的納維亞家庭計劃的價格上漲測試，您能否更新一下迄今為止您的會員在總增加和流失方面的反應？

Does this move indicate any change in your thinking about price versus market growth or market share for Spotify?

這一舉動是否表明您對 Spotify 的價格與市場增長或市場份額的看法發生了任何變化？

What other markets do you believe may have similar maturity to weather the same price testing?

您認為還有哪些其他市場可能具有類似的成熟度來經受相同的價格測試？

Well, just -- let's up-level again to our overall strategy.

好吧，只是 - 讓我們再次升級到我們的整體戰略。

Our overall strategy is still growth.

我們的總體戰略仍然是增長。

We believe streaming is a very, very big market, and we want to partake in that market.

我們相信流媒體是一個非常非常大的市場，我們希望參與這個市場。

And so for the foreseeable future, most of the time spent, we are really focusing on growing.

因此，在可預見的未來，我們大部分時間都在專注於增長。

That said, there is obviously local nuances that happen, that can sometimes be inflation in pricing, that could be tax-related things, and sometimes it's even down to market maturity.

也就是說，顯然會發生當地的細微差別，有時可能是定價通脹，可能是與稅收有關的事情，有時甚至是市場成熟度。

And in those cases, you should expect us to accordingly adjust prices.

在這些情況下，您應該期望我們相應地調整價格。

Specifically related to the Nordic countries, we haven't yet -- it's early days.

具體與北歐國家有關，我們還沒有——現在還為時過早。

We haven't yet seen any material impact in either gross adds or churn.

我們還沒有看到對總增加或流失的任何實質性影響。

Next question comes from Maria Ripps at Canaccord.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

On sponsored recommendations, what are some of the milestones that you would like to see before expanding the beta test to more label partners and into more countries?

關於贊助建議，在將 beta 測試擴展到更多標籤合作夥伴和更多國家之前，您希望看到哪些里程碑？

Also, recognizing that it's early, can you give us some color on how you expect the benefit to flow to your financials?

此外，認識到現在還為時過早，您能否就您期望收益如何流入您的財務狀況給我們一些顏色？

Well, it's really about artist success.

嗯，這真的是關於藝術家的成功。

The key primary notion, and you've heard me say this through prior calls as well, marketing remains one of the largest challenges that the music industry has.

關鍵的主要概念，你也通過之前的電話聽到我說過，營銷仍然是音樂行業面臨的最大挑戰之一。

As there is more and more content, it's harder and harder to get your music out there and get exposed.

隨著內容越來越多，將您的音樂發布並曝光變得越來越難。

So we're really looking at that as the key success metric.

因此，我們確實將其視為關鍵成功指標。

If we're able to make artists leveraging this tool.

如果我們能夠讓藝術家利用這個工具。

If we are, then we think it'll be really successful, and we'll be able roll it out more widely.

如果我們是，那麼我們認為它會非常成功，並且我們將能夠更廣泛地推廣它。

And then, overall, the way you should think about this is, compared to our normal streaming business, this is more of a software-type margins, and as such, we expect obviously as we grow the business, that, that will accrue back to Spotify in a nice way.

然後，總體而言，您應該考慮的方式是，與我們正常的流媒體業務相比，這更多是軟件類型的利潤，因此，我們顯然希望隨著業務的發展，這將累積回來以一種不錯的方式訪問 Spotify。

So about the 2-sided marketplace, I'd like you to think about it this way -- look, the economic impact this way.

所以關於雙面市場，我希望你這樣想——看，這樣的經濟影響。

Some of the benefits will be revenue, as Daniel pointed out, at very high margin relative to our core business.

正如丹尼爾指出的那樣，其中一些好處將是收入，相對於我們的核心業務而言，利潤率非常高。

And some of them will be expense offsets in the form of, let's say, lower content costs.

其中一些將以降低內容成本的形式進行費用補償。

And so when we next quarter share with you the economic impact historically and our expectations for next year, probably, we will talk to you about a gross profit impact associated with the 2-sided marketplace rather than the components of revenue and expense offsets.

因此，當我們下個季度與您分享歷史上的經濟影響以及我們對明年的預期時，我們可能會與您討論與雙邊市場相關的毛利潤影響，而不是收入和費用抵消的組成部分。

Next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley at Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lloyd Walmsley。

Can you elaborate on the drivers of better Premium gross margins?

您能否詳細說明提高溢價毛利率的驅動因素？

And specifically, what the product and revenue mix refers to?

具體來說，產品和收入組合指的是什麼？

Is this a function of faster growth in markets with listening habits having lower-cost content?

這是具有低成本內容的收聽習慣的市場增長更快的功能嗎？

Where is auditorial listing as a percent of our stream today?

今天，聽力列表占我們信息流的百分比在哪裡？

Sure.

當然。

So we're not going to get specific on the puts and takes on the gross margin.

因此，我們不會具體說明看跌期權和毛利率。

I would highlight again what I said earlier which is, in general, from a consolidated basis, we benefit when we've got more of our revenue coming from the Premium side than the ads business, which helped us in the quarter.

我將再次強調我之前所說的，一般來說，從綜合基礎上看，當我們從高級版獲得的收入多於廣告業務時，我們會受益，這在本季度對我們有所幫助。

We're not going to disaggregate what the Premium gross margin impact was.

我們不會分解溢價毛利率的影響。

And then we haven't updated the auditorial streams in a while, but it's been reasonably consistent over a period of time.

然後我們有一段時間沒有更新聽覺流，但它在一段時間內相當一致。

Next question comes from Nick Delfas.

下一個問題來自尼克德爾法斯。

Are you disappointed by the very small reduction in churn?

您對流失率的微小減少感到失望嗎？

Actually, year-over-year, it was about 28 basis points, of which, from my perspective, is a lot.

實際上，與去年同期相比，大約是 28 個基點，在我看來，這很多。

So I'm pretty psyched by the improvement in churn actually.

所以我對流失率的改善感到非常興奮。

Next question comes from Richard Kramer.

下一個問題來自 Richard Kramer。

With adding 30 exclusive podcasts during Q3, plus another 50 or so, is this the full extent of the monetizable podcast content on Spotify out of the 500,000 titles they quote?

在第三季度增加了 30 個獨家播客，再加上另外 50 個左右，這是他們引用的 500,000 個標題中可在 Spotify 上獲利的播客內容的全部範圍嗎？

If creators do not use Anchor, how else can SPOT monetize third-party content?

如果創作者不使用 Anchor，SPOT 還能如何通過第三方內容獲利？

And what does the Premium sub get on the podcast side?

Premium sub 在播客方面得到了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

We're really not yet focusing on monetization of podcasts.

我們真的還沒有專注於播客的貨幣化。

The primary thing for us has been really drive up the engagement.

對我們來說，首要的事情是真正提高參與度。

And as could you see in the quarter, we're now at 14% of our MAUs that's using it.

正如您在本季度看到的那樣，我們現在有 14% 的 MAU 正在使用它。

We still want that number to grow and we're still primarily focused on that, given all the goodness that we think that leads to in the overall platform.

我們仍然希望這個數字增長，並且我們仍然主要關注這一點，因為我們認為這會在整個平台中帶來所有好處。

We are seeing an increase in engagement and an increase in conversion to paid.

我們看到參與度增加，付費轉化率增加。

So we think those benefit, in and of itself, is very valuable, and that's kind of where the majority of focus over -- is near term.

因此，我們認為這些好處本身是非常有價值的，這就是大多數關注的地方 - 是近期的。

Over time though, obviously, we believe monetization of podcasts remains a huge opportunity, and it is something that we're going to start looking at in 2020.

不過，隨著時間的推移，顯然，我們相信播客的貨幣化仍然是一個巨大的機會，我們將在 2020 年開始關注這一點。

Next question comes from an individual investor.

下一個問題來自個人投資者。

Given significant elevation in regulatory focus on the largest technology companies, how do you see the potential developments creating opportunity or risk for you?

鑑於對大型科技公司的監管重點顯著提升，您如何看待潛在的發展為您創造機會或風險？

Paul, clearly, we are moving into different environments overall being a tech company.

保羅，顯然，作為一家科技公司，我們正在進入不同的環境。

And as tech, just overall, is increasing its size and importance to society at large, that would just need for regulation.

總體而言，隨著科技的規模和對整個社會的重要性不斷增加，這將只需要監管。

This is not something that's particularly surprising to us.

這對我們來說並不是特別令人驚訝的事情。

It's something that we've leaned in to, and we've expected for it some time to come.

這是我們一直在努力的事情，並且我們已經預料到它會在一段時間內到來。

I think the good news is that we are based out of Europe.

我認為好消息是我們位於歐洲以外。

We're very well aware of data protection.

我們非常了解數據保護。

GDPR is something that we've leaned in on from many, many years ago, and I feel really good about all the work that we're doing there.

GDPR 是我們在很多很多年前就開始依賴的東西，我對我們在那裡所做的所有工作感覺非常好。

I'll take another question from an individual investor.

我將回答個人投資者的另一個問題。

Can management elaborate the differences in driving discovery and duration for podcast versus music?

管理層能否詳細說明播客與音樂在推動發現和持續時間方面的差異？

How much of your knowledge in driving music discovery could give flight to podcast?

您在推動音樂發現方面的知識有多少可以讓播客飛起來？

And does the longer-form nature of podcasts make it more challenging to surface relevant content for users?

播客的較長形式的性質是否使為用戶展示相關內容變得更具挑戰性？

There's lots of similarities and then there's also definitely a lot of things that are vastly different with podcasts.

有很多相似之處，當然也有很多與播客有很大不同的東西。

I think the general mechanics are the same.

我認為一般機制是相同的。

We can certainly leverage data that we have on our users.

我們當然可以利用我們擁有的用戶數據。

And we're seeing some really interesting results just in recommending podcasts based on even music listening being something that has a positive effect for us.

我們看到了一些非常有趣的結果，僅在推薦播客的基礎上，甚至音樂收聽對我們都有積極影響。

Now that said, "selling" so to speak in quotes, music versus selling podcasts is a different proposition.

話雖如此，“銷售”可以說是引用，音樂與銷售播客是一個不同的主張。

One is a 3-minute time commitment.

一種是 3 分鐘的時間承諾。

Another one is an hour time commitment on average.

另一個是平均一個小時的時間承諾。

We're still experimenting with formats and how to do that.

我們仍在試驗格式以及如何做到這一點。

It's still very much early days.

現在還很早。

But as you could see, quarter-over-quarter growth of 39% is incredibly strong.

但正如你所見，39% 的季度環比增長非常強勁。

We're very pleased with that.

我們對此非常滿意。

And you should expect us to innovate on all forms of merchandising and discovery tools that we have so that we can drive that number up significantly.

您應該期望我們對我們擁有的所有形式的銷售和發現工具進行創新，以便我們可以顯著提高這一數字。

Next question comes from [Matt Janiga] from Surveyor.

下一個問題來自 Surveyor 的 [Matt Janiga]。

What is the benefit of offering the Google Home Mini to existing subscribers?

向現有訂閱者提供 Google Home Mini 有什麼好處？

Would it help with churn or keep individual subs from sharing Family Plans?

是否有助於流失或阻止個人訂閱者共享家庭計劃？

The primary benefit really is bringing Spotify into your home.

真正的主要好處是將 Spotify 帶入您的家中。

What we see is that there are 3 primary modalities that people engage in audio content.

我們看到的是，人們參與音頻內容的主要方式有 3 種。

One is obviously on the go and mobile, where we've historically been very, very strong.

一個顯然是在移動和移動中，我們在歷史上一直非常非常強大。

The other one is in your home, and the third is in your car.

另一個在你家，第三個在你的車裡。

In -- on mobile, we're doing really well.

在 - 在移動設備上，我們做得非常好。

On the car, we now have more than 70 million monthly active users who are tuning in.

在汽車上，我們現在有超過 7000 萬月活躍用戶正在調音。

And in the home, we look at something like the Google Home Mini plan as a great way for us to get into people's homes and get competitive against all the other services that are there.

在家庭中，我們將 Google Home Mini 計劃視為進入人們家中並與那裡的所有其他服務競爭的好方法。

So net-net, we're expecting more engagements, and more engagements typically leads to lower churn, and that's a huge benefit obviously overall to Spotify.

所以 net-net，我們期待更多的參與，更多的參與通常會導致更低的流失率，這顯然對 Spotify 整體來說是一個巨大的好處。

We'll take one last question from John Tinker at Gabelli.

我們將回答 Gabelli 的 John Tinker 的最後一個問題。

Any updates on your plans in China?

你在中國的計劃有什麼更新嗎？

And what impact does Tencent investing directly in UMG have?

騰訊直接投資UMG有什麼影響？

No real updates.

沒有真正的更新。

We continue to be pleased with the partnership with TME.

我們繼續對與 TME 的合作感到滿意。

And again, there is really no impact on Tencent's investments in Universal from our point of view.

再說一次，從我們的角度來看，騰訊對環球的投資確實沒有影響。

Great.

偉大的。

And with that, Daniel, I'll turn it back over to you for some closing comments.

有了這個，丹尼爾，我會把它交給你一些結束評論。

Yes.

是的。

In closing, we're really pleased with this quarter's results.

最後，我們對本季度的業績感到非常滿意。

We're really strong at every level: engagement, conversion and retention.

我們在各個層面都非常強大：參與度、轉化率和留存率。

And we will continue to improve our user experience and add value in our podcasting and marketplace offerings.

我們將繼續改善我們的用戶體驗，並為我們的播客和市場產品增加價值。

And we look forward to building on these successes.

我們期待在這些成功的基礎上再接再厲。

And with that, I say thank you to everyone.

有了這個，我要感謝大家。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

We'll speak to you next quarter.

我們將在下個季度與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您加入，您現在可以斷開連接。