標普全球 (SPGI) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to S&P Global's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. I'd like to inform you that this call is being recorded for broadcast. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Mr. Chip Merritt, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for S&P Global. Sir, you may begin.

    各位早安,歡迎參加 S&P Global 2021 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。我想提醒各位,本次電話會議將被錄音以供播出。(接線員指示)現在我想介紹 S&P Global 投資人關係資深副總裁 Chip Merritt 先生。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Robert Merritt - SVP of IR

    Robert Merritt - SVP of IR

  • Thank you for joining today's S&P Global Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call. Presenting on today's call are Doug Peterson, President and CEO; and Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    感謝各位參加今天的 S&P Global 2021 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。今天出席並發言的有總裁兼執行長 Doug Peterson,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ewout Steenbergen。

  • We issued a news release with our results earlier today. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com.

    我們今天稍早已發布新聞稿公布業績結果。如需新聞稿與財務附表,可至 investor.spglobal.com 下載。

  • Before we begin, I need to provide certain cautionary remarks about forward-looking statements. Except for historical information, the matters discussed in today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates and descriptions of future events. Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. In this regard, we direct listeners to the cautionary statements contained in our Form 10-Ks, 10-Qs and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

    在開始之前,我需要就前瞻性陳述提供若干警示性說明。除歷史資訊外,今日電話會議所討論事項可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義之前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件的預測、估計與描述。任何此類陳述均基於目前預期與當前經濟狀況,並受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所預期者出現重大差異。就此,我們提醒聽眾參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交之 Form 10-K、10-Q 及其他定期報告中所載之警示性聲明。

  • In addition, as announced late in 2020, S&P Global and IHS Markit entered into a definitive merger agreement. In March last year, shareholders of both companies overwhelmingly voted in favor of the merger. The merger is pending regulatory approval, and we currently expect to close this quarter.

    此外,如同我們在 2020 年底所宣布,S&P Global 與 IHS Markit 已簽訂具約束力的最終合併協議。去年 3 月,兩家公司股東以壓倒性票數表決支持合併。該合併案仍待監管核准,我們目前預期將於本季完成交割。

  • This call will touch on the merger, but does not constitute an offer, a sell or buy, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any such jurisdiction. No offering of securities shall be made except by means of prospectus meeting requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933.

    本次電話會議將提及該合併案,但不構成任何出售或購買之要約,亦不構成徵求任何購買或出售任何證券之要約;且在任何司法管轄區,若於依該司法管轄區證券法完成註冊或取得資格之前進行該等要約、徵求或出售屬違法者,則不得在該等司法管轄區進行任何證券出售。任何證券之發行,除以符合《1933 年證券法》第 10 條要求之公開說明書(prospectus)方式外,不得為之。

  • In connection with the proposed transaction, S&P Global and IHS Markit have filed a registration statement on Form S-4 with the SEC, which includes a joint proxy statement and a prospectus. S&P Global and IHS Markit have filed other documents regarding the proposed transaction with the SEC. Investors and security holders of S&P Global or IHS Markit stock are urged to carefully read the entire registration statement and joint proxy statement and prospectus, which are available on our website and sec.gov.

    就本次擬議交易而言,S&P Global 與 IHS Markit 已向 SEC 提交 Form S-4 註冊聲明,其中包含聯合委託書聲明(joint proxy statement)與公開說明書(prospectus)。S&P Global 與 IHS Markit 亦已就該擬議交易向 SEC 提交其他文件。我們敦促 S&P Global 或 IHS Markit 股票之投資人與證券持有人仔細閱讀完整的註冊聲明以及聯合委託書聲明與公開說明書;相關文件可於我們網站及 sec.gov 取得。

  • In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we're providing adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the corporation's operating performance between periods and to view the corporation's business from the same perspective as management.

    在今日的財報新聞稿以及本次電話會議中,我們提供調整後(adjusted)的財務資訊。提供此資訊旨在使投資人能在不同期間之間對本公司營運表現進行有意義的比較,並以與管理階層相同的視角檢視本公司業務。

  • The earnings release and the slides contain exhibits that reconcile the difference between the non-GAAP measures and the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. This call, especially the discussion of our outlook, contains statements about expected future events that are forward-looking and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations can be found in our filings with the SEC and on our website.

    財報新聞稿與簡報投影片包含附表,用以調節非 GAAP 指標與依美國 GAAP 計算之可比財務指標之差異。本次電話會議,特別是我們對展望的討論,包含對預期未來事件的陳述,屬前瞻性陳述並受風險與不確定性影響。可能導致實際結果與預期出現重大差異的因素,可見於我們向 SEC 提交的文件及我們的網站。

  • I would also like to call your attention to a European regulation. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should give me a call to better understand the impact of this legislation on the investor and potentially the company.

    我也想提醒各位注意一項歐洲法規。任何已持有或預期取得 S&P Global 5% 或以上所有權的投資人,請致電與我聯繫,以更了解該立法對投資人以及可能對本公司造成的影響。

  • We're aware that we do have some media representatives with us on the call. However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask that questions from the media be directed to Ola Fadahunsi at (212) 438-2296.

    我們知道本次電話會議中也有一些媒體代表與會。然而,本次電話會議主要面向投資人;我們請媒體的提問改向 Ola Fadahunsi 聯繫,電話為 (212) 438-2296。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Doug Peterson. Doug?

    此刻,我想把電話會議交給 Doug Peterson。Doug?

  • Douglas.

    Douglas。

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Chip. Welcome to everyone joining today's earnings call. The first thing I'd like to do is thank our people at S&P Global for their dedication and commitment throughout 2021. We've asked a lot of our people this year as they do their day jobs while also preparing for the expected merger with IHS Markit and all the while dealing with the uncertainty of the pandemic. So on behalf of the Board and our management team, thank you.

    謝謝你,Chip。歡迎各位參加今天的財報電話會議。我首先要做的是感謝 S&P Global 的同仁在 2021 年全年的投入與承諾。今年我們對同仁提出了很多要求:他們一方面要完成日常工作,同時也要為預期與 IHS Markit 的合併做準備,並且還要面對疫情帶來的不確定性。因此,我代表董事會與管理團隊向各位致謝。

  • Now let me turn to the key financial achievements in 2021. S&P Global delivered 12% organic revenue growth and 17% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. All 4 businesses contributed with growth in both revenue and adjusted operating profit margin. This is quite an achievement following the remarkable results of 2020.

    接著我談談 2021 年的主要財務成果。S&P Global 實現 12% 的有機營收成長,以及 17% 的調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長。四大業務皆有貢獻,營收與調整後營業利益率均成長。在 2020 年已取得亮眼成果之後,這仍是一項相當了不起的成就。

  • We generated $3.5 billion of free cash flow, excluding certain items, and returned $743 million in dividends. In addition to the very strong financial results, we made significant progress on our key initiatives as well. Clearly, the most important initiative of the year has been on preparation for the merger and the multiple rounds of synergy validation. Upon closing of the merger, we are well-prepared to rapidly begin operating as one company and to begin to realize both the cost and revenue synergies we have already outlined to you.

    我們產生了 35 億美元的自由現金流(不含特定項目),並發放 7.43 億美元股利。除了非常強勁的財務表現之外,我們在關鍵策略計畫上也取得重大進展。顯然,今年最重要的計畫是為合併做準備,以及多輪次的綜效驗證。合併完成交割後,我們已做好充分準備,能迅速以單一公司運作,並開始實現我們先前已向各位說明的成本與營收綜效。

  • In fact, on a run rate basis, we have already achieved pre realized synergies of $25 million by the end of 2021. Also, after the merger is completed, we will host a post-merger investor call to provide an update on the merged company strategy, business segment details, synergies, investment programs, share repurchase plans and guidance.

    事實上,以 run rate 基礎計算,截至 2021 年底我們已達成 2,500 萬美元的預先實現綜效。此外,合併完成後,我們將舉辦合併後投資人電話會議,更新合併後公司策略、業務部門細節、綜效、投資計畫、庫藏股/股票回購計畫以及財測指引。

  • The other key initiatives achieved in 2021 include the rapid progress achieved on our 2020 multiyear productivity program, numerous new product launches and expanded product capabilities resulting from our strategic investment initiatives, the creation of Sustainable1 to manage and drive significant expansion in coordination with ESG product offerings across the company; the launch of S&P Platts Dimensions Pro, a fully integrated user experience connecting pricing, market commentary, news and analytics with special emphasis on energy transition; and continued progress in China with one example being the issuance of 57 domestic ratings in China, up over 150% from 2020. This included the first dual-rated bond. I'll provide more detail on many of these items in today's call.

    2021 年達成的其他關鍵計畫包括:我們 2020 年多年度生產力計畫的快速推進;因策略性投資計畫而帶來的多項新產品上市與產品能力擴充;成立 Sustainable1,以管理並推動全公司與 ESG 產品供給相協同的重大擴張;推出 S&P Platts Dimensions Pro,提供完全整合的使用者體驗,將定價、市場評論、新聞與分析連結在一起,並特別著重於能源轉型;以及在中國持續取得進展,其中一個例子是於中國發行 57 項境內評級,較 2020 年成長逾 150%。其中包含首檔雙重評級債券。我將在今天的電話會議中就其中多項內容提供更多細節。

  • These are the strategic initiatives that we shared with you on our fourth quarter earnings call last year. We made great strides in each of these items, and we'll remark in more detail on many of them today.

    這些就是我們在去年第四季財報電話會議中與各位分享的策略計畫。我們在每一項上都取得了長足進展,今天也會就其中多項作更深入的說明。

  • To recap the financial results for the full year, organic revenue increased 12% to $8.3 billion. Our adjusted operating profit increased 15%. Our adjusted operating profit margin increased 190 basis points to 55.2%. And we delivered a 17% increase in adjusted diluted EPS. It's important to note that adjusted EPS of $13.70 far exceeded our original 2021 guidance of $12.25 to $12.45 and that the adjusted operating profit margin of 55.2% far exceeded our original guidance of 53.8% to 54.3%. Much of this was due to unexpected outperformance in Ratings, following what was a very strong 2020. Ewout will review our fourth quarter financial performance in a moment.

    回顧全年財務結果:有機營收成長 12% 至 83 億美元。調整後營業利益成長 15%。調整後營業利益率提升 190 個基點至 55.2%。調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 17%。值得注意的是,調整後 EPS 13.70 美元大幅超越我們原先 2021 年指引的 12.25 至 12.45 美元;而 55.2% 的調整後營業利益率也遠高於我們原先 53.8% 至 54.3% 的指引。這在很大程度上是因為評級業務在 2020 年已非常強勁的基礎上仍出現超預期表現。Ewout 稍後將回顧我們第四季的財務表現。

  • All 4 divisions delivered revenue growth and adjusted operating profit improvement. The largest revenue gain was the 16% in Indices. After several years of elevated investment spending, Market Intelligence delivered the largest adjusted operating profit margin increase with a gain of 190 basis points.

    四大事業部門皆實現營收成長並改善調整後營業利益。營收增幅最大的是指數業務,成長 16%。在經歷數年較高的投資支出後,市場情報(Market Intelligence)帶來最大的調整後營業利益率提升,增加 190 個基點。

  • It's important to remember that our 2021 financial results are part of a solid track record of performance. Over the past 4 years, we've posted a compound annual growth rate of 8% for revenue, and we have averaged 217 basis points per year of adjusted operating profit margin expansion. And this has resulted in a nearly doubling of our adjusted diluted EPS over that time frame.

    重要的是要記得,我們 2021 年的財務成果是穩健績效紀錄的一部分。過去 4 年,我們的營收複合年成長率為 8%,調整後營業利益率平均每年擴張 217 個基點。這也使得我們在該期間的調整後稀釋每股盈餘幾乎翻倍。

  • The company also continued to advance its own industry-leading practices in sustainability. We issued our 10th Annual Sustainability Impact Report and third Annual TCFD Report. We expanded parental leave to 26 weeks and introduced a flexible time-off policy with no prescribed maximum in all eligible jurisdictions.

    公司也持續推進自身在永續方面的業界領先作法。我們發布了第 10 份年度永續影響報告以及第 3 份年度 TCFD 報告。我們將育嬰/父母假擴大至 26 週,並在所有符合資格的司法管轄區導入彈性休假政策,不設規定的最高上限。

  • We established a $1.5 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility tied to our published Science-Based Target goals, one of the first sustainability-linked banking facilities in the U.S. Our S&P Global Foundation increased its grants by 30% to $15 million to organizations that support COVID-19 relief, diversity, economic inclusion and environmental sustainability. And our efforts have been recognized by several leading third parties.

    我們建立了一項15億美元的高級無擔保循環信用額度,並與我們已公布的科學基礎減量目標(Science-Based Target)掛鉤,這是美國最早的永續連結銀行融資之一。我們的S&P Global Foundation將其補助金提高30%至1,500萬美元,提供給支持COVID-19救助、多元化、經濟包容與環境永續的組織。此外,我們的努力也獲得多家領先第三方的肯定。

  • While we continue to improve our own internal sustainability programs, we're investing in our ESG business. In 2021, we launched Sustainable1 to elevate and coordinate external ESG efforts across the company. This resulted in ESG revenue of $98 million, a 51% increase over 2020. All our key ESG products contributed to this growth.

    在我們持續改善自身內部永續計畫的同時,我們也在投資我們的ESG業務。2021年,我們推出Sustainable1,以提升並協調公司各項對外ESG工作。此舉帶來9,800萬美元的ESG營收,較2020年成長51%。我們所有主要ESG產品皆對此成長有所貢獻。

  • We completed 59 ESG Evaluations, up 48%; 43 Green Evaluations, up 79%; 103 SAM benchmark engagements, up 36%; and we launched social and sustainability framework alignment opinions and completed 42 of them. We ended 2021 with ESG ETF AUM reaching $32.2 billion, an increase of 59% versus year-end 2020.

    我們完成了59項ESG評估(ESG Evaluations),成長48%;完成43項綠色評估(Green Evaluations),成長79%;完成103項SAM基準互動(SAM benchmark engagements),成長36%;並推出社會與永續框架一致性意見(framework alignment opinions),且完成其中42項。2021年底,我們的ESG ETF資產管理規模(AUM)達322億美元,較2020年底增加59%。

  • At the core of our ESG efforts are the corporate sustainability assessments. These are a key differentiator versus our competitors as they enable us to collect an enormous amount of data directly from corporations around the world. For the methodology year that ends in March, we have already increased CSA survey participation by 58% to 2,190 companies.

    我們ESG工作的核心是企業永續評估(corporate sustainability assessments)。相較競爭對手,這是我們的關鍵差異化優勢,因為它使我們能直接向全球企業蒐集龐大的資料。對於於3月結束的方法論年度,我們已將CSA問卷參與度提高58%,達到2,190家公司。

  • We also enhanced ESG offerings available on Capital IQ Pro, expanded S&P Global ESG scores coverage to 11,500 companies and expanded coverage of climate risk analytics to more than 3 million physical assets such as mines, power stations and buildings. In addition to excellent commercial progress and expanded capabilities, we also launched numerous new ESG products and initiatives in 2021.

    我們也強化了Capital IQ Pro上的ESG產品供給,將S&P Global ESG Scores的涵蓋範圍擴大至11,500家公司,並將氣候風險分析(climate risk analytics)的覆蓋範圍擴展至超過300萬項實體資產,例如礦場、發電站與建築物。除了優異的商業進展與能力擴充之外,我們也在2021年推出多項新的ESG產品與倡議。

  • While I don't have time to delve into each one of them, let me just comment on a few. Second Party Opinions assess a transaction against a sustainable finance framework for alignment with consistent and comparable market principles and standards. Climate changes created the need to evaluate the impact of different climate-related scenarios on counterparties, investments and portfolios.

    雖然我沒有時間逐一深入說明,但我想簡要評論其中幾項。第二方意見(Second Party Opinions)會依據永續金融框架,評估一項交易是否與一致且可比較的市場原則與標準相符。氣候變遷也帶來了需求:必須評估不同氣候相關情境對交易對手、投資與投資組合的影響。

  • To support these efforts, Market Intelligence and Oliver Wyman created Climate Credit Analytics, a climate scenario analysis and credit analytics model suite. And in December, we acquired the Climate Service. The company sells the Climanomics platform, a tool that quantifies physical climate risk for corporates, investors and governments.

    為支持這些工作,Market Intelligence與Oliver Wyman共同打造了Climate Credit Analytics,這是一套氣候情境分析與信用分析模型工具組合。此外,在12月我們收購了Climate Service。該公司銷售Climanomics平台,這是一項可為企業、投資人與政府量化實體氣候風險的工具。

  • Kensho continues to be a driving force for productivity improvement for the company and increasingly for our customers. The key capabilities they have created are listed on this slide. Codex is an AI-powered document viewer that enables efficient navigation and extraction of relevant information from large quantities of documents. There have been over 300,000 client uses to date. Codex is available on Capital IQ Pro.

    Kensho持續成為推動公司生產力提升的動力,且日益成為我們客戶的助力。他們所建立的關鍵能力列於本投影片。Codex是一款由AI驅動的文件檢視器,可在大量文件中有效率地導覽並擷取相關資訊。迄今為止,客戶使用次數已超過300,000次。Codex可在Capital IQ Pro上使用。

  • Kensho AGAVE has transformed Platts' process for creating price assessments. The AGAVE tool, developed by engineers at Kensho and Platts, has transformed the process for creating price assessments. Platts has implemented AGAVE in 40 of 57 markets targeted. And on average, daily price assessments are completed 70 minutes faster.

    Kensho AGAVE已改造Platts建立價格評估(price assessments)的流程。由Kensho與Platts工程師開發的AGAVE工具,已徹底改變價格評估的製作流程。Platts已在目標的57個市場中,有40個導入AGAVE。平均而言,每日價格評估完成時間加快了70分鐘。

  • Internally, Kensho Link facilitated quicker data ingestion by providing automated mappings for 60 million company entities. Externally, Kensho Link was used by our customers to efficiently map 16 million of their own entities to S&P Global unique identifiers.

    在內部方面,Kensho Link透過為6,000萬個公司實體提供自動化對應(automated mappings),促進更快速的資料匯入。在外部方面,我們的客戶使用Kensho Link,將其自有的1,600萬個實體有效率地對應至S&P Global的唯一識別碼(unique identifiers)。

  • Many of our customers have taken note of Kensho's capabilities. And we've begun monetizing Kensho Link, Kensho Scribe, RPA, data extraction and machine learning development. While the innovation we create internally is what drives much of our success, key industry trends also help. One of those is the shift into passive investing.

    我們的許多客戶已注意到Kensho的能力,而我們也已開始將Kensho Link、Kensho Scribe、RPA、資料擷取與機器學習開發進行商業化變現。雖然我們內部創造的創新驅動了我們多數成功,但關鍵產業趨勢同樣有所助益,其中之一就是向被動投資的轉移。

  • This chart illustrates the $1.9 trillion of cumulative AUM U.S. equity flows in the past 10 years. We are a prime beneficiary of this trend. If we look at ETF AUM associated with our indices, there has been a 173% increase over the past 5 years to $2.8 trillion. We believe that this trend will continue.

    此圖表呈現過去10年美國股票資金流入累計AUM達1.9兆美元。我們是此趨勢的主要受益者。若觀察與我們指數相關的ETF AUM,過去5年已成長173%,達到2.8兆美元。我們相信此趨勢將持續。

  • The increase in global issuance has been another positive trend for the company. It's hard to believe that 2021 issuance growth of 15% exceeded 2020 issuance growth of 13% as is often the case, to pockets of strength and pockets of weakness. In 2020, global investment grade and high yield were the strongest, while in 2021, leveraged loans and structured products were the fastest-growing categories. The market clearly favored leveraged loans over high yield in 2021. The bars on these charts depict leverage loan volume, which soared in 2021. The lines depict the percentage of loans that we rated, which reached new heights of 95% in the U.S. and 93% in Europe.

    全球發行量的增加也是公司另一項正向趨勢。令人難以置信的是,2021年發行量成長15%,竟高於2020年13%的成長;如同常見情況,市場同時存在強勢區塊與弱勢區塊。2020年,全球投資級與高收益是最強勁的類別;而在2021年,槓桿貸款與結構型產品則是成長最快的類別。2021年市場明顯偏好槓桿貸款而非高收益。這些圖表中的長條顯示槓桿貸款量,於2021年大幅飆升;折線則顯示我們評等的貸款占比,在美國達到95%、在歐洲達到93%,皆創下新高。

  • I'd now like to shift the presentation to our outlook for 2022. The latest global refinancing study was issued earlier this month. The total amount of global debt maturing in this study is $11 trillion over the next 5 years. This is down 3% from the $11.3 trillion highlighted in last year's study. The chart on the right depicts the global high-yield debt and leverage loans maturing over the next 5 years. It totals $2.9 trillion, down 3% from $3 trillion in last year's study. It appears that 2021 issuance benefited from a bit of extra pull forward.

    接下來我想將簡報轉向我們對2022年的展望。本月稍早發布了最新的全球再融資研究。該研究顯示,未來5年到期的全球債務總額為11兆美元,較去年研究所強調的11.3兆美元下降3%。右側圖表呈現未來5年到期的全球高收益債務與槓桿貸款,合計2.9兆美元,較去年研究的3兆美元下降3%。看起來2021年的發行量可能受惠於部分提前拉動(pull forward)。

  • Let's put this small decline in upcoming maturities into perspective. This chart shows total global corporate debt outstanding for the past 6 years. This increased at a compounded annual growth rate of 6%. The vast majority of this debt will get refinanced, and the pool of debt that needs to be refinanced just keeps getting larger.

    讓我們把即將到期規模的小幅下降放在脈絡中理解。此圖表顯示過去6年全球企業債務未償餘額總量,其以6%的複合年成長率增加。絕大多數債務都將被再融資,而需要再融資的債務池只會持續擴大。

  • After exceptional issuance growth in 2020 and 2021, our Ratings Research group anticipates that issuance will decrease 2% in 2022. The forecast calls for gains in structured, U.S. municipal and financial services issuance of 3%, 2% and 1%, respectively, and a decrease in non financials of 7%. Please note that this is an issuance forecast, not a revenue forecast, and it does not include leveraged loans.

    在2020與2021年發行量大幅成長之後,我們的評等研究(Ratings Research)團隊預期2022年發行量將下降2%。預測指出,結構型產品、美國市政債與金融服務的發行量將分別成長3%、2%與1%,而非金融類將下降7%。請注意,這是發行量預測,而非營收預測,且不包含槓桿貸款。

  • Now let's start with the latest view from our economists. They are forecasting global GDP growth of 4.2% in 2022. The global economy is in the midst of a robust but uneven rebound from the pandemic. Demand growth is outrunning supply growth, and inflation has risen quickly almost everywhere. GDP growth in the U.S. and Europe reached multi-decade highs in 2021 and have continued in 2022. Inflation has proven to be more persistent than thought and now presents a key policy challenge in the U.S. and Europe. Our economists now expect at least 3 Fed rate hikes this year starting in March.

    現在讓我們先從經濟學家的最新觀點開始。他們預測2022年全球GDP成長4.2%。全球經濟正處於自疫情以來強勁但不均衡的復甦之中。需求成長超過供給成長,通膨幾乎在各地快速上升。美國與歐洲的GDP成長在2021年達到數十年高點,並延續至2022年。通膨的持續性高於原先預期,現已成為美國與歐洲的關鍵政策挑戰。我們的經濟學家目前預期今年至少會有3次聯準會升息,並自3月開始。

  • Each year, we carefully assess the external factors facing the company. This slide depicts those that we think are most important going into 2022. Probably the most important positive factors are the expectation for continued healthy economic growth, borrowing costs that remain historically low, continued AUM flows from active to passive, elevated commodity levels that help the financial stability of commodity producers and ample liquidity. The most significant negative factors are geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, Central Bank rate increases and a repricing of equities. And of course, the pandemic and supply chain disruptions remain general risks facing the global economy.

    每一年,我們都會審慎評估公司所面臨的外部因素。本投影片呈現我們認為在邁入2022年時最重要的因素。最重要的正面因素可能包括:預期經濟成長將持續健康、借貸成本仍處於歷史低位、資產管理規模(AUM)持續由主動轉向被動、商品價格維持高檔有助於商品生產商的財務穩定,以及充裕的流動性。最顯著的負面因素包括:地緣政治不確定性、黏著性通膨、央行升息,以及股市重新定價。當然,疫情與供應鏈中斷仍是全球經濟面臨的整體風險。

  • Before I finish, I want to say that I'm incredibly proud of the team we've built at S&P Global, and I look forward to welcoming the talented IHS Markit employees to S&P Global. We're hopeful we'll be speaking with you soon to update you on the merger. Once the merger is complete, we will immediately begin building a new company with an even brighter future.

    在我結束之前,我想說我對我們在S&P Global所建立的團隊感到無比自豪,也期待歡迎才華洋溢的IHS Markit員工加入S&P Global。我們希望很快能與各位交流,向各位更新合併進展。一旦合併完成,我們將立即開始打造一家擁有更光明未來的新公司。

  • And now I'd like to turn the call over to Ewout Steenbergen, who is going to provide additional insights into our financial performance and outlook. Ewout?

    接下來我想把電話會議交給Ewout Steenbergen,他將就我們的財務表現與展望提供更多洞見。Ewout?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Doug, and welcome to all of you on the call. Let me start with our fourth quarter financial results. Revenue increased 12%. Adjusted corporate unallocated expense increased 38%, primarily due to increased incentive compensation, higher professional fees and the timing of contributions to the S&P Global Foundation. Adjusted total expenses increased 9%, and I'll come back to this on the next slide.

    謝謝你,Doug,也歡迎各位參與本次電話會議。讓我先從我們第四季的財務結果開始。營收成長12%。調整後公司未分攤費用(adjusted corporate unallocated expense)增加38%,主要由於激勵性薪酬增加、專業費用較高,以及對S&P Global Foundation捐助時點的影響。調整後總費用增加9%,我會在下一張投影片再回到這點。

  • Adjusted operating profit margin increased 120 basis points. Interest expense decreased 22% primarily due to a reduction in FIN 48 interest expense accruals, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 16%. Total adjusted expenses for the full year increased 7%. For the fourth quarter, they increased 9%. The fourth quarter increase was primarily due to: elevated variable expenses, including incentives, commissions and royalties as a result of strong 2021 financial performance; severance charges related to management changes in the Indices business during the quarter; increased investments in growth initiatives; increased professional fees; and the resumption of T&E spending.

    調整後營業利益率提高120個基點。利息費用下降22%,主要由於FIN 48利息費用應計減少,而調整後稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)增加16%。全年調整後總費用增加7%;第四季增加9%。第四季的增加主要由於:變動性費用上升,包括因2021年強勁財務表現而增加的獎勵金、佣金與權利金;本季指數(Indices)業務管理層變動相關的資遣費用;加大對成長計畫的投資;專業服務費增加;以及差旅與交際(T&E)支出恢復。

  • During the fourth quarter, the non-GAAP adjustments totaled to a net pretax loss of $131 million. They included $21 million for merger transaction costs primarily legal fees; $42 million for merger integration costs primarily consulting fees; retention bonuses, branding and technology integration costs; $51 million for merger costs to achieve, which will drive synergy benefits, they include lease impairments and restructuring charges; $4 million for acquisition and divestiture-related expenses; $8 million in gains from real estate sales; and $21 million in deal-related amortization.

    第四季,非GAAP調整合計為稅前淨損失1.31億美元。其中包括:2,100萬美元的合併交易成本(主要為法律費用);4,200萬美元的合併整合成本(主要為顧問費用);留任獎金、品牌與技術整合成本;5,100萬美元的合併「達成成本」(costs to achieve),將帶來協同效益,包含租賃減損與重組費用;400萬美元的收購與剝離相關費用;800萬美元的不動產出售收益;以及2,100萬美元的交易相關攤銷。

  • This quarter, all 4 segments delivered increased revenue with Indices leading the way with an 18% increase. All 4 segments also delivered adjusted operating profit growth with Ratings leading the way with an 18% increase. Quarterly margins were mixed, but more importantly, all 4 segments reported a gain in adjusted operating profit margin for the year.

    本季四個事業部門皆實現營收成長,其中以指數(Indices)以18%的增幅領先。四個事業部門也都實現調整後營業利益成長,其中以評級(Ratings)以18%的增幅領先。季度利潤率表現不一,但更重要的是,四個事業部門在全年均回報調整後營業利益率提升。

  • Each year, on our fourth quarter earnings call, we share the changes in our headcount. In 2021, headcount decreased 1% primarily for 2 reasons. The first is operational efficiencies. Much of the operational efficiencies were from automation. In fact, our people created 225 bots in 2021 with Market Intelligence leading the way with 167 bots. Cognitive automation and RPA generated over 600,000 hours of savings in 2021.

    每年在第四季財報電話會議上,我們都會分享員工人數的變化。2021年員工人數下降1%,主要有兩個原因。第一是營運效率提升,其中很大一部分來自自動化。事實上,我們的員工在2021年建立了225個機器人(bots),其中以市場情報(Market Intelligence)領先,建立了167個。認知自動化與RPA在2021年合計節省超過60萬小時。

  • The second is pre realized merger synergies. Because of the pending merger, it didn't make sense to backfill many positions when people left the company in 2021. We estimate that there were about 150 S&P Global positions left unfilled, representing pre realized synergies of approximately $25 million by year-end 2021.

    第二是預先實現的合併協同效益。由於合併尚待完成,當2021年有人離職時,補足許多職缺並不合理。我們估計約有150個S&P Global職位未補實,至2021年底代表約2,500萬美元的預先實現協同效益。

  • This year, with the formation of Sustainable1, we added this as a new category. Many of the people in Sustainable1 were previously reported in other categories. Platts was the area with the largest headcount increase at 11% due to investments in several growth projects. Market Intelligence had the largest decrease at 6% largely due to automation efficiencies and realignment to Sustainable1.

    今年,隨著Sustainable1的成立,我們將其新增為一個新類別。Sustainable1中的許多人先前被歸類在其他類別中。Platts因投資多項成長專案,員工人數增幅最大,達11%。市場情報(Market Intelligence)降幅最大,為6%,主要由於自動化效率提升以及重新調整至Sustainable1。

  • Last year, we shared this slide and estimated that we would invest $100 million on growth initiatives in 2021. We ended up investing $80 million. The primary reasons for the difference were the competing priorities due to the merger and the competitive labor market. We will share our 2022 investment spending plans after the merger is completed.

    去年我們分享了這張投影片,並估計2021年將在成長計畫上投資1億美元。最終我們投資了8,000萬美元。差異的主要原因是合併帶來的優先事項競爭,以及競爭激烈的勞動市場。我們將在合併完成後分享2022年的投資支出計畫。

  • On our third quarter 2020 earnings call, we introduced a new $120 million productivity program to be completed over a 2- to 3-year period. I'm pleased to report that only after 18 months, we have already largely completed the program. There are a few small procurement projects that are awaiting the close of the merger to take advantage of the increased scale of the combined company. All our productivity efforts will now be focused on achieving the merger synergies.

    在2020年第三季財報電話會議上,我們推出一項新的1.2億美元生產力計畫,預計在2至3年內完成。我很高興報告,僅18個月後,我們已大致完成該計畫。仍有少數小型採購專案正等待合併完成,以利用合併後公司規模擴大所帶來的優勢。接下來我們所有的生產力工作將聚焦於實現合併協同效益。

  • Now turning to the balance sheet. Our balance sheet continues to be very strong with low leverage and ample liquidity. We have cash and cash equivalents of $6.5 billion and debt of $4.1 billion. Our adjusted gross debt to adjusted EBITDA improved since the end of last year to 1.8x.

    接著看資產負債表。我們的資產負債表仍然非常強健,槓桿偏低且流動性充裕。我們持有現金及約當現金65億美元,負債41億美元。自去年底以來,我們的調整後總負債對調整後EBITDA比率改善至1.8倍。

  • Free cash flow, excluding certain items, was $3.5 billion in 2021, an increase of $217 million or 7% over the prior year period. Because the share repurchase program was suspended due to the pending merger with IHS Markit, we only returned 21% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2021. After the merger is completed, we expect to significantly ramp up share repurchases.

    2021年自由現金流(排除特定項目)為35億美元,較去年同期增加2.17億美元或7%。由於與IHS Markit的合併尚待完成而暫停庫藏股回購計畫,我們在2021年僅將自由現金流的21%回饋給股東。合併完成後,我們預期將大幅提高股票回購。

  • Now let's turn to the division results. Starting with S&P Dow Jones Indices, the segment delivered 18% revenue growth primarily due to gains in AUM linked to our indices and increased exchange-rated derivative activity. Our asset-linked revenue also included the benefit of a customer underreporting true-up. In the fourth quarter, we reported a 28% increase in adjusted expenses primarily due to severance, increased incentive compensation, commissions and royalties; a 13% increase in adjusted segment operating profit and an adjusted segment operating profit margin of 65.7%, a decrease of 280 basis points. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 80 basis points to 69.9%.

    接下來看各事業部門表現。首先是S&P道瓊指數(S&P Dow Jones Indices),該部門營收成長18%,主要來自與我們指數連結的資產管理規模(AUM)增加,以及交易所掛牌衍生品活動提升。我們的資產連結收入亦包含一位客戶少報的追補(true-up)效益。第四季,我們回報調整後費用增加28%,主要由於資遣費、激勵性薪酬增加、佣金與權利金;調整後部門營業利益增加13%,調整後部門營業利益率為65.7%,下降280個基點。以過去四個季度(trailing 4-quarter)計,調整後部門營業利益率提高80個基點至69.9%。

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices delivered growth across all revenue channels this quarter. Asset-linked fees increased 18% with very strong gains in ETFs and mutual funds. Exchange-traded derivative revenue increased 30%. Data and custom subscriptions increased 10%. Activity at the CBOE increased in the fourth quarter with S&P 500 Index options activity increasing 47% and fixed futures and options activity increasing 18%. CME equity complex volume increased 15% with particular strength in E-mini S&P 500 options.

    本季S&P道瓊指數(S&P Dow Jones Indices)在所有營收管道均實現成長。資產連結費用增加18%,ETF與共同基金表現非常強勁。交易所交易衍生品營收增加30%。資料與客製化訂閱增加10%。第四季CBOE活動增加,S&P 500指數選擇權交易量增加47%,固定收益期貨與選擇權活動增加18%。CME股票複合產品(equity complex)成交量增加15%,其中以E-mini S&P 500選擇權表現尤為突出。

  • Ratings reported revenue increased 12%. Adjusted expenses increased 5% primarily due to increased incentive compensation, wages and outside services. This resulted in an 18% increase in adjusted segment operating profit and a 300 basis point increase in adjusted segment operating profit margin. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 180 basis points to 64.2%. Non-transaction revenue increased 7% primarily due to fees associated with CRISIL, new entity Credit Ratings and Surveillance, partly offset by lower Rating Evaluation Service. As an aside, we added over 1,000 new entity credit ratings in 2021.

    評級(Ratings)回報營收增加12%。調整後費用增加5%,主要由於激勵性薪酬、薪資與外部服務增加。這使調整後部門營業利益增加18%,調整後部門營業利益率提高300個基點。以過去四個季度計,調整後部門營業利益率提高180個基點至64.2%。非交易型營收增加7%,主要來自與CRISIL、新增的主體信用評級與監測(Credit Ratings and Surveillance)相關費用,部分被較低的評級評估服務(Rating Evaluation Service)所抵銷。補充說明:我們在2021年新增超過1,000個主體信用評級。

  • Transaction revenue increased primarily due to strength in investment-grade corporate bonds, bank loans and structured products. This slide depicts Ratings revenue by its end markets. The largest contributor to the increase in Ratings revenue was the 14% increase in corporates. In addition, Financial Services revenue increased 5%, Structured Finance increased 32%, Governments decreased 11%, and the CRISIL and other category increased 14%. On the right side of this slide, you can see the changes in revenue within Structured Products. The largest change was in CLOs, which increased 43%.

    交易型營收增加,主要由於投資級公司債、銀行貸款與結構性產品表現強勁。本投影片按終端市場呈現評級(Ratings)營收。評級營收增加的最大貢獻來自企業(corporates)成長14%。此外,金融服務(Financial Services)營收增加5%,結構金融(Structured Finance)增加32%,政府(Governments)下降11%,CRISIL及其他類別增加14%。在投影片右側可看到結構性產品(Structured Products)內部營收變化,其中變化最大的是CLO,增加43%。

  • Turning to Platts. Revenue increased 12% or $26 million, including a $4 million commercial settlement. Approximately 14% of this growth was from new products. Core subscriptions increased 10%, and Global Trading Services increased 13%. The gains in GTS revenue were mainly from higher petroleum and iron ore volumes. Adjusted expenses increased 16% primarily due to increased commissions, growth investments, cost of sales and incentives. Adjusted segment operating profit margin decreased 160 basis points to 50.1%. The trailing 4-quarter adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 40 basis points to 55.1%. Platts delivered excellent revenue growth in every category with notable increases in natural gas, power and renewables and petrochemicals.

    接著看Platts。營收增加12%或2,600萬美元,其中包含400萬美元的商業和解(commercial settlement)。約14%的成長來自新產品。核心訂閱增加10%,全球交易服務(Global Trading Services, GTS)增加13%。GTS營收成長主要來自石油與鐵礦石交易量提高。調整後費用增加16%,主要由於佣金增加、成長投資、銷售成本以及激勵費用增加。調整後部門營業利益率下降160個基點至50.1%。以過去四個季度計,調整後部門營業利益率提高40個基點至55.1%。Platts在各類別均實現優異的營收成長,其中天然氣、電力與再生能源以及石化產品增幅尤為顯著。

  • Market Intelligence delivered revenue growth of 8% or $42 million, with 34% of the growth coming from new products. Usage of our key market platforms increased 4% year-over-year, while year-ending active users increased 13% to 299,000 users. Adjusted expenses increased to 5% due to increased cloud hosting initiatives, royalties, incentives and commissions. Adjusted segment operating profit increased 15%, and the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 200 basis points to 32.7%. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 190 basis points to 34.3%.

    市場情報(Market Intelligence)營收成長8%或4,200萬美元,其中34%的成長來自新產品。我們主要市場平台的使用量年增4%,而年末活躍用戶增加13%至299,000名。調整後費用增加5%,原因包括雲端託管計畫增加、權利金、激勵與佣金增加。調整後部門營業利益增加15%,調整後部門營業利益率提高200個基點至32.7%。以過去四個季度計,調整後部門營業利益率提高190個基點至34.3%。

  • Looking across the Market Intelligence components. Desktop revenue grew 6%. During 2021, Market Intelligence rebranded its premier platform offering as Capital IQ Pro. The Capital IQ Pro platform combines the best of Capital IQ and SNL desktops with broad public fundamentals and deep industry data. In addition, the platform offers greater visibility into private companies and private markets as well as regulatory, supply chain, climate data and analytics and ESG scores.

    從市場情報(Market Intelligence)的各組成項目來看,桌面端(Desktop)營收成長6%。在2021年期間,市場情報將其旗艦平台產品重新品牌為Capital IQ Pro。Capital IQ Pro平台結合Capital IQ與SNL桌面端的優勢,提供廣泛的公開基本面資料與深入的產業數據。此外,該平台也提供對私營公司與私募市場更高的可視性,以及監管、供應鏈、氣候資料與分析,以及ESG評分。

  • Data Management Solutions revenue grew 11%, and Credit Risk Solutions revenue grew 8%. Due to the pending merger, the company will not provide guidance for 2022 at this time but will provide 2022 guidance for the combined company after the merger is completed. We continue to expect the merger to close this quarter. In addition to the slides that we have reviewed on this call, there are additional slides in an appendix that can be downloaded from the Investor Presentations section of the Investor Relations website.

    資料管理解決方案營收成長 11%,信用風險解決方案營收成長 8%。由於合併案仍在進行中,公司目前不會提供 2022 年展望,但將在合併完成後,提供合併後公司之 2022 年展望。我們仍預期合併將於本季完成。除本次電話會議中我們已檢視的投影片外,附錄中另有其他投影片,可自投資人關係網站之「投資人簡報」專區下載。

  • In conclusion, 2021 was a noteworthy year for S&P Global. We delivered strong financial results, realized significant growth, made considerable progress on merger preparation and synergy validation and launched multiple innovative new products across the company, including our Sustainable1 product offerings.

    總結而言,2021 年對 S&P Global 而言是值得關注的一年。我們交出強勁的財務成果、實現顯著成長、在合併準備與協同效益驗證方面取得重大進展,並在全公司推出多項創新新產品,包括我們的 Sustainable1 產品組合。

  • And with that, let me turn the call back over to Chip for your questions.

    接下來,我把電話交回給 Chip 來回答各位的提問。

  • Robert Merritt - SVP of IR

    Robert Merritt - SVP of IR

  • Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we will now take our first question.

    謝謝。(接線員指示)接線員,我們現在開始進行第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our first question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

    第一個問題來自高盛的 George Tong。

  • Keen Fai Tong - Research Analyst

    Keen Fai Tong - Research Analyst

  • With respect to the merger with IHS Markit, can you elaborate on what steps remain for the companies to complete before the transaction can close?

    關於與 IHS Markit 的合併案,您能否進一步說明在交易完成交割前,兩家公司還需要完成哪些步驟?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • George, this is Doug. Thanks for the question. Well, first of all, as you know from our last call and what you've seen that we've released, we have approval from all of the regulators that we require approval from to close the merger. And -- but those are conditioned on certain divestitures.

    George,我是 Doug。謝謝你的問題。首先,如同你從我們上次電話會議以及你所看到我們已發布的資訊所知,我們已取得完成合併所需的所有監管機關核准。不過——這些核准是以特定資產剝離為條件。

  • So with the U.K. CMA, we are -- have already presented them with approved buyers for the Base Chemicals business, which is News Corp. We're waiting for their approval of that potential buyer. And then the second would be from the EC. We have -- they've looked at all of the divestitures and the additional one from them is CUSIP, which we've announced that we signed a contract with FactSet. And we're waiting for them to approve them as an acceptable divestiture partner. Other than that, we're ready to go.

    就英國 CMA 而言,我們——已向其提交 Base Chemicals 業務的核准買方,即 News Corp。我們正在等待其對該潛在買方的核准。第二個則是歐盟執委會(EC)。我們——他們已檢視所有剝離項目,而他們額外要求的一項是 CUSIP;我們已宣布與 FactSet 簽署合約。我們正在等待他們核准 FactSet 作為可接受的剝離合作方。除此之外,我們已準備就緒。

  • Keen Fai Tong - Research Analyst

    Keen Fai Tong - Research Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful. You've realized pre realized merger synergies over the course of 2021 and early 2022. Given your work around synergy realization, how are your views on revenue and cost synergies from the transaction changed?

    了解,非常有幫助。你們在 2021 年及 2022 年初已實現部分合併前的協同效益。基於你們在協同效益實現方面的工作,你們對本交易的營收協同與成本協同的看法有何改變?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • George, this is Ewout. Obviously, we have continued to work on further validating our synergies, both on the cost side and on the revenue side. We have, in the meantime, had 5 rounds of synergy submissions by our work streams. So they do a lot of work on substantiating synergies, building bottom-up plans and further really developing concrete initiatives around these synergies. So the confidence level is going up for each of those submission rounds. I cannot give you specific numbers today. We'll get back to you during the merger call but a lot of work is continuing, so we're ready to realize the synergies immediately after completing the transaction.

    George,我是 Ewout。很明顯地,我們持續就成本端與營收端的協同效益進一步驗證。同時,我們的各工作流程已進行了 5 輪協同效益提報。他們投入大量工作來佐證協同效益、建立自下而上的計畫,並進一步圍繞這些協同效益發展出具體的推動方案。因此,每一輪提報的信心程度都在提升。我今天無法提供具體數字;我們會在合併相關電話會議時再回覆你。不過,相關工作仍在持續進行,因此我們已準備在交易完成後立即實現協同效益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Toni Kaplan。

  • Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

    Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on Ratings. You mentioned the down 2% issuance for this year that your Ratings Group is forecasting. Just given the potential for rising rates, you mentioned you're expecting 3 rate hikes. I guess how are you thinking about upside versus downside to that neck down 2% number?

    我想問關於評級(Ratings)。你們提到評級事業群預測今年發行量將下滑 2%。考量到利率可能上升,你們提到預期會有 3 次升息。我想問的是,你們如何看待這個「下滑 2%」數字的上行與下行風險?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, Toni, thank you for that. First of all, let me just share a little bit of the color of the market. As you know, last year was a -- I had a lot of mixed movement in the Ratings. As an example, the Corporates in the U.S. were down 30%. Financial institutions were up 17%, and then as an example, globally structured credit, which is CLOs, was up 265%.

    是的,Toni,謝謝你的問題。首先,我先分享一些市場概況。如你所知,去年——評級市場的變動組合非常混雜。舉例來說,美國企業債(Corporates)下滑 30%;金融機構上升 17%;再例如,全球結構性信用(也就是 CLO)則上升 265%。

  • So we saw a lot of mix in the movements. And our analysts and the team at the S&P Global Ratings research team have been looking across all of those types of factors, what was the part issuance. One thing that they've looked at is what was the growth in issuance over the last couple of years in all the different sectors? What's the M&A landscape? What are we seeing for the pipeline of LBOs, of private sector transactions, private credit transactions?

    因此我們看到變動中有很大的組合差異。我們的分析師與 S&P Global Ratings 研究團隊一直在檢視各類因素,例如各類別的發行量表現。其中一項他們檢視的是:過去幾年各產業別的發行成長如何?併購(M&A)環境如何?槓桿收購(LBO)、私募市場交易、私募信貸交易的案源(pipeline)狀況如何?

  • And what they see right now is in the -- what we call the Corporates or the industrials that they're expecting they'll be down by about 7% next year with a range of negative 15% to negative 5%. Financial Services relatively flat, up about 1% with a range from down 5% to up 5%. Structured Finance at about 3% growth for the year with could go down as much as 5%, could go as much up as 8%. And then Public Finance at about 2%, either flat to up 5%. So that gives you a total of down about 2% with a range that could go down 8, and it could go up to 3%.

    而他們目前看到的是,在——我們所稱的企業或工業(Corporates/Industrials)方面,預期明年將下滑約 7%,區間介於 -15% 到 -5%。金融服務相對持平,上升約 1%,區間介於下滑 5% 到上升 5%。結構性金融全年約成長 3%,可能最多下滑 5%,也可能最多上升 8%。公共金融約 2%,介於持平到上升 5%。因此合計約下滑 2%,區間可能下滑到 8%,也可能上升到 3%。

  • As I said, this is based on the factors of looking at the pipeline, looking at outstanding issuance, maturities that are coming up, M&A pipeline, what we've learned from the banking sector on what they see with the private transactions, et cetera.

    如我所說,這是基於多項因素:檢視案源、檢視未償發行量、即將到期的到期量、併購案源,以及我們從銀行業者對私募交易所觀察到的情況等等。

  • Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

    Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

  • That's great. Very helpful, and wanted to ask on ESG. So you've mentioned in the past that most of the ESG revenue right now is in Platts. But there are significant opportunities in the other segments, and you've mentioned a number of those earlier in the call. But just how should we think about the ramp of ESG in the different segments? Like would you expect like Market Intelligence to be able to ramp first or Index? And should we see this being sort of a gradual opportunity over time? Or as things gain traction, massive step up somewhere? Just how should we think about going forward?

    很好,非常有幫助。我也想問 ESG。你們過去提到目前大部分 ESG 營收來自 Platts。但其他事業部也有顯著機會,你們在本次電話會議前面也提到其中一些。不過,我們應該如何看待 ESG 在不同事業部的爬坡速度?例如,你們是否預期 Market Intelligence 會先爬坡,或是 Index?我們應該把它視為隨時間逐步成長的機會?還是當動能建立後,某個時間點會出現大幅跳升?未來應如何看待?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Toni, if you look at the revenues for ESG, we're very pleased with the growth during 2021. We realized 51% growth in revenues across the company. And so overall, we continue to be committed to that 40% CAGR that we have laid out before. Your question with respect to each of the segments, you're right that Platts is still the highest, the largest in terms of ESG revenue contribution. Market Intelligence is very closely following now the Platts business. And what we are seeing that besides Platts, particularly Ratings, Market Intelligence and the Index business are having the highest growth of each ESG revenues at this point in time.

    Toni,如果你看 ESG 的營收,我們對 2021 年的成長非常滿意。我們在全公司範圍內實現了 ESG 營收 51% 的成長。整體而言,我們仍致力於先前所提出的 40% 年複合成長率(CAGR)。至於你問到各事業部的情況,你說得對,Platts 仍是 ESG 營收貢獻最高、規模最大的部門。Market Intelligence 目前也非常緊跟 Platts 業務。而我們看到的是,除了 Platts 之外,特別是 Ratings、Market Intelligence 與 Index 業務在此時點的 ESG 營收成長率最高。

  • So it is clearly an enterprise-wide initiative. That's why we have created the Sustainable1 Group that is looking across the company and driving commercial initiatives for the company as a whole. And we continue to be very excited about the outlook for the ESG revenues and particularly also seeing that growth in the other segments outside of Platts.

    因此這顯然是一項全企業層級的倡議。這也是為什麼我們成立 Sustainable1 團隊,從全公司角度推動並帶動整體商業化計畫。我們對 ESG 營收前景仍感到非常振奮,並且也特別看到 Platts 以外其他事業部的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

  • Kevin Damien McVeigh - MD

    Kevin Damien McVeigh - MD

  • Congratulations. Obviously, there's a lot going on and just really, really nice outcome. Doug or Ewout, could you talk about obviously, there's the focus on rates, but there's market volatility as well. Maybe talk about how the volatility impacts the Indices business, the Market Intelligence and then Platts as well because I think there's puts and takes across the model, but maybe the increased volatility, again, how that impacts Indices, Intelligence and then maybe just a spike in oil within the context of Platts, if you could.

    恭喜。顯然目前有很多事情在進行中,成果也非常、非常好。Doug 或 Ewout,你們能否談談:大家關注的不只是利率,還有市場波動。能否談談波動性如何影響指數(Indices)業務、Market Intelligence,以及 Platts?因為我認為在你們的商業模式中有利有弊;但若波動性上升——再者,在 Platts 的脈絡下,如果油價出現飆升——這些分別會如何影響指數、情報(Intelligence),以及 Platts?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Absolutely, Kevin. Actually, the way how we look at volatility, that is, in many cases, also a positive for our businesses because if there's more volatility going on in the markets, more activity happening. There is more demand for our products, for our research, for our insight and for our analytics. So actually, volatility in markets usually shows more the higher value add of our products.

    當然可以,Kevin。其實我們看待波動性的方式是:在許多情況下,波動性對我們的業務也是正面的,因為市場波動越大,市場活動越多,對我們產品、研究、洞見與分析的需求也越高。因此,市場波動通常會更凸顯我們產品的高附加價值。

  • And then on top of that, we see 2 of our businesses that are directly benefiting from more volatility from a trading perspective. We have Global Trading Services revenue in Platts that is going up when there's more market volatility in the commodities markets. And then we have the exchange-traded derivative activity in the Index business, which is the case that there is more hedging going on in more volatile equity markets. And that is one of the revenue drivers of our Index business. So clearly, volatility is helping the company both from a value add, but then also about directly to revenue streams in both the Index and the Platts business.

    此外,從交易角度來看,我們有兩項業務會直接受惠於更高的波動性。第一,在 Platts,我們的全球交易服務(Global Trading Services)營收會在大宗商品市場波動加劇時上升。第二,在 Index 業務,我們有交易所交易衍生性商品(exchange-traded derivative)的活動;在股票市場更波動時,避險需求會增加,而這正是我們指數業務的營收驅動因素之一。因此,波動性顯然同時在附加價值層面助益公司,也會直接帶動 Index 與 Platts 兩項業務的營收來源。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Alex Kramm。

  • Alexander Kramm - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Exchanges, Ebrokers

    Alexander Kramm - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Exchanges, Ebrokers

  • Wanted to come back to the Ratings agency discussion for a second. Doug, you mentioned obviously that the forecast from your team doesn't include loan markets. But if you look at the loan business for you in 2021, obviously, that business doubled. So curious where you shake out in terms of loan market expectations in terms of issuance. And obviously, that filters into structured finance as well in case it's a soft environment, which we've seen so far in January.

    想再回到評級機構的討論一下。Doug,你提到很明顯你們團隊的預測不包含貸款市場。但如果看你們 2021 年的貸款業務,很明顯該業務翻了一倍。所以想了解你們對貸款市場在發行量方面的預期會落在哪裡。而且很明顯,這也會傳導到結構性融資,尤其是在我們目前一月所看到的偏疲弱環境下。

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thank you. Well, when it comes to the loan market, we still see conditions, which are quite attractive for loan issuers. First of all, even though there's discussions about rates going up, we've seen estimates from 3, 4, 5, 6, even 7 hikes recently as the last couple of days, our own economists have increased their expectation for rate hikes in the U.S. up to a range of more like 5 or 6 now.

    是的,謝謝。嗯,談到貸款市場,我們仍然看到對貸款發行人而言相當具吸引力的條件。首先,儘管市場在討論利率上升,我們最近幾天看到的估計有 3、4、5、6 甚至 7 次升息;而我們自己的經濟學家也把對美國升息的預期上調到更接近 5 或 6 次的區間。

  • But even if you look at rates, rates are still quite low. And there's a lot of demand for floating rate instruments given the rate cycle, and there could be increases there. We also see a very strong M&A pipeline. As you know, M&A is one of the biggest drivers of loan issuance. As people complete M&A, they many times are financing it with a bridge loan or potentially going into the loan market.

    但即使看利率水準,利率仍然相當低。鑑於利率循環,市場對浮動利率工具的需求很大,而且那方面可能還會增加。我們也看到非常強勁的併購(M&A)案源管線。如你所知,併購是貸款發行的最大驅動因素之一。人們完成併購時,很多時候會用過橋貸款融資,或是可能轉向貸款市場。

  • So when we look at the entire market, we think that even though rates are going to be going up, they're still low on historical levels. Spreads are very tight. There's a lot of demand for floating rate paper. There's a large pipeline of transactions coming through, both from a combination of M&A as well as private equity transactions. So we're seeing right now still a very strong market for loans into the near future.

    因此,當我們看整體市場時,我們認為即使利率將上升,從歷史水準來看仍然偏低。利差非常緊。對浮動利率票券的需求很大。交易管線也很龐大,來源包括併購以及私募股權交易的組合。所以我們目前看到,至少在可預見的未來,貸款市場仍然非常強勁。

  • Alexander Kramm - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Exchanges, Ebrokers

    Alexander Kramm - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Exchanges, Ebrokers

  • All right. Fair enough. And then maybe this could be for Ewout or you. Inflation, obviously, is a topic that's been coming up a lot. Curious, I know you're not giving any guidance at this point, but how you think, on the one hand, that could impact your cost pressure that we've seen with other companies? And then maybe remind us how much CPI you have built into some of your contracts in Market Intelligence, maybe Platts. So I guess the question is where could inflation actually help organic growth in 2022, which some people may not be thinking about?

    好,合理。接著這題可能給 Ewout 或你。通膨顯然是最近被頻繁提到的話題。我知道你們目前不提供任何指引,但想請教一方面你們認為通膨可能如何影響你們的成本壓力(我們在其他公司也看到這點)?另一方面,也請提醒我們在 Market Intelligence(也許還有 Platts)的部分合約中,你們納入了多少 CPI 連動?所以我的問題是:通膨在 2022 年可能在哪些地方實際上有助於內生成長,而這可能是一些人沒有想到的?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Alex. I'm going to start, and then I'm going to hand it over to Ewout. Well, first of all, when we look at inflation, we see that last year, as an example in the U.S., it was a 7% annualized rate in December. That annualized rate of 7% has, obviously, led to a very animated discussion about interest rates in the U.S.

    謝謝你,Alex。我先回答,然後再交給 Ewout。首先,談到通膨,以美國為例,去年 12 月的年化通膨率是 7%。這個 7% 的年化水準,顯然引發了美國對利率的非常熱烈討論。

  • So as we built our plan and we're looking forward, we've been looking at this in the U.S. and the U.K., around the world. So first impact is we believe that interest rates will be going up. You've seen them go up in the U.K. They're talking about it in the EC. The ECB has now been rumored to be looking at interest rate increases. And then in the U.S., there's expectations this year. So we've built those factors in.

    因此,在我們制定計畫並展望未來時,我們一直在美國、英國以及全球各地關注這點。第一個影響是我們相信利率將上升。你已經看到英國利率上升;歐盟也在討論;市場也傳出歐洲央行(ECB)正在考慮升息。而在美國,今年也有升息預期。所以我們已把這些因素納入。

  • When it comes to labor markets, that's one of the areas I'm watching myself quite closely, both from a systemic point of view and then for our company itself. We've seen some wage pressure in areas like technology roles. There are some ESG roles that we've seen some pressure, wage pressure because those -- we're obviously going to be paying market rates. But let me hand it over to Ewout to give you some more thoughts about how we're applying it for our budget for this year.

    至於勞動市場,這是我自己密切關注的領域之一,既從系統性角度,也從我們公司本身角度。我們在科技職位等領域看到一些薪資壓力。在某些 ESG 職位上也看到一些壓力、薪資壓力,因為那些——我們顯然需要支付市場水準的薪酬。不過我先把問題交給 Ewout,讓他分享更多我們如何把這些因素運用在今年的預算上。

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Alex, if you think about the impact of inflation on the company, we think, overall, this is going to be manageable for us because of a couple of reasons. Obviously, there will be expense increases with respect to people costs and procurement. And as Doug said, we are making some targeted adjustments for certain job groups within the company.

    Alex,如果你思考通膨對公司的影響,我們認為整體而言對我們是可控的,原因有幾點。當然,人員成本與採購方面會有費用增加。正如 Doug 所說,我們正在針對公司內某些職務族群做一些有針對性的調整。

  • But then the offsets are the following. We are continuing to run productivity programs, and you have seen that we have made quite good progress with the program we announced in 2020. Of course, we're getting the significant synergy programs. And then we have an opportunity based on the high value-add of our products and services to achieve more favorable contract terms and fees over time when we are at that point of renewal.

    但抵銷因素如下:我們持續推動生產力計畫,你也看到我們在 2020 年宣布的計畫上取得相當不錯的進展。當然,我們也將獲得顯著的協同效益計畫。此外,基於我們產品與服務的高附加價值,在合約到期續約時,我們有機會隨時間推進,取得更有利的合約條款與費率。

  • Obviously, that depends on facts and circumstances for each of our businesses. But clearly, we will be looking at balancing growth, margins, customer relations and then ultimately, shareholder value by managing the impact of inflation. But as I said at the beginning, we think that is overall manageable from a financial results perspective.

    當然,這取決於我們各項業務的具體事實與情況。但很明確地,我們會透過管理通膨影響,在成長、利潤率、客戶關係以及最終的股東價值之間取得平衡。不過如我一開始所說,從財務結果的角度來看,我們認為整體是可控的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • Just going back to the -- when the INFO acquisition was announced, the company had guided to a mid-single-digit EPS growth for '22. I understand you will provide the guidance on the -- after the acquisition closes. But a lot has changed since then. So I was just wondering if you could just provide us some puts and takes since the original guidance was given and whether the buyback was included in that original guidance? Any incremental color will be helpful.

    回到——當 INFO 收購案宣布時,公司曾指引 2022 年 EPS 將有中個位數成長。我理解你們會在收購完成後提供指引。但自那之後很多事情都變了。所以我想請問,你們是否能就原先指引提出後的各項正反因素(puts and takes)提供一些說明?以及原先的指引是否已包含回購?任何額外的補充說明都會很有幫助。

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Ashish, fully understand this is a very unusual situation that we cannot provide you guidance at this point in time. Having said that, you should expect us, from a philosophical perspective, how we manage the company to continue exactly for what you have seen us doing in the past and what we have told you before. So expect to grow revenues in all of our businesses in 2022 and also to continue to expand our margins. And we will be more specific during the merger call and give you more quantification around that.

    Ashish,我完全理解這是一個非常不尋常的情況,我們目前無法提供指引。話雖如此,從我們管理公司的理念角度,你應該預期我們會延續你過去所看到我們一直在做的事情,以及我們之前告訴過你的方向。因此,預期我們在 2022 年所有業務都會實現營收成長,並且持續擴大利潤率。我們會在併購電話會議時更具體,並提供更多量化資訊。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • That's very helpful color. And then just on the multiyear productivity, it's great to see the progress there and ability to pull forward or ability to execute at a better-than-expected pace and then now the focus on cost synergies going forward. Just a question there would be is there opportunity for -- as we -- in addition to the cost synergies, could there be more opportunities for productivity, global productivity improvement on stand-alone businesses as well?

    這些補充很有幫助。接著關於多年期的生產力計畫,很高興看到你們的進展,以及能夠提前拉動或以優於預期的速度執行,並且接下來聚焦於成本協同效益。我這邊的問題是:除了成本協同效益之外,是否也有機會——當我們——在獨立(stand-alone)業務上,也能有更多生產力機會、全球性的生產力提升?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • We will continue to look at all the opportunities. You may expect us to see us continue to be very disciplined from a cost management perspective. There are areas where we are further looking at across the whole company from productivity to real estate to automation, many, many different areas. Again, we will give you a full update on what that means for the combined company from a synergy perspective. But overall, I'm very pleased with the progress we are making to get ready to start to realize those synergies and the concrete plans that we have put behind that.

    我們會持續尋找所有機會。你可以預期我們在成本管理方面會一如既往地非常嚴謹。我們正在全公司範圍內進一步檢視多個領域,從生產力到不動產到自動化,很多很多不同面向。同樣地,我們會就合併後公司在協同效益方面的意涵提供完整更新。但整體而言,我對我們為開始實現這些協同效益所做的準備進展,以及我們背後所制定的具體計畫感到非常滿意。

  • And as I said before, 5 rounds we now had in terms of synergies, submissions by the work streams. So an incredible amount of work has gone into this to further validate and to bring up the confidence level in terms of what we will be able to accomplish.

    而且如我先前所說,就協同效益而言,我們現在已經進行了 5 輪,由各工作流程(work streams)提交方案。為此投入了大量工作,以進一步驗證並提升我們對能夠達成目標的信心程度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Manav Patnaik。

  • Manav Shiv Patnaik - Director & Lead Research Analyst

    Manav Shiv Patnaik - Director & Lead Research Analyst

  • I'm just looking at the Kensho slide here, and I just wanted kind of a high-level overview on what the pipeline at Kensho looks like just with S&P at the moment, and I imagine IHS Markit only opens up the doors there.

    我正在看 Kensho 的投影片,我想要一個高層次的概覽:就目前與 S&P 的合作而言,Kensho 的案源管線大概是什麼樣子?而我想 IHS Markit 只會在那方面打開更多大門。

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Manav. And you know this is always one of my favorite topics to talk about. So we continue to be so excited about the initiatives of Kensho and how Kensho is helping to transform S&P Global and what it can do also for the combined company after we complete the transaction.

    謝謝你,Manav。你也知道,這一直是我最喜歡談的主題之一。所以我們仍然對 Kensho 的各項計畫感到非常興奮,以及 Kensho 如何協助轉型 S&P Global;在我們完成交易後,它也能為合併後公司帶來什麼。

  • You've seen some of the highlights of the accomplishment of Kensho during 2021, and we are expecting to see that continuing in 2022. We have such a complete toolkit of AI for unstructured data, which is about linking data, extraction, speech to text, the Codex platform that is now on Cap IQ Pro and has already 300,000 users to date.

    你已經看到 Kensho 在 2021 年的一些成果亮點,而我們預期這些在 2022 年會持續。我們擁有非常完整的非結構化資料 AI 工具組,涵蓋資料連結、擷取、語音轉文字,以及 Codex 平台;該平台目前已在 Cap IQ Pro 上線,迄今已有 300,000 名使用者。

  • And you cannot imagine the amount of demand that Kensho will have going forward. We will have some prioritization decisions to make where we think we can create the highest value and where to use those resources. Also, by the way, the attention for Kensho from external customers is going up at this point in time. There's more and more external activity happening. And also the relations with Kensho with some of the large technology firms is further expanding.

    而且你無法想像 Kensho 未來將面臨多大的需求。我們將需要做出一些優先順序的決策,判斷我們在哪裡能創造最高價值,以及在哪裡投入這些資源。另外順帶一提,目前外部客戶對 Kensho 的關注度正在上升。越來越多的外部活動正在發生。同時,Kensho 與一些大型科技公司的合作關係也在進一步擴大。

  • So we're actually really excited that the external recognition of Kensho remains very high. So high value creation for Kensho, and it's going to be really positive to see what is going to be next for Kensho in a way to help to catalyze innovation for the company.

    所以我們其實非常興奮,因為 Kensho 在外部的認可度仍然非常高。Kensho 的高價值創造將持續下去,而看到 Kensho 接下來將如何協助催化公司創新,將會是非常正面的。

  • Manav Shiv Patnaik - Director & Lead Research Analyst

    Manav Shiv Patnaik - Director & Lead Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then just a quick update on China. Obviously, the number of ratings is growing really nicely as you disclosed. Just wondering like is the revenue material yet? And what that kind of pace looks like?

    了解。接著快速更新一下中國的情況。顯然如你們揭露的,評等數量成長得很不錯。想請教一下,營收是否已經具備一定規模了?以及大概的成長節奏會是如何?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Manav. Well, we're so excited about China. We have a fantastic team there with really good leadership. We've been out educating the market. As you know, there's been some opportunities for us to provide some seminars on credit. We've seen a very large increase in traffic coming to us, especially given the current credit environment in China.

    是的。謝謝你,Manav。我們對中國非常興奮。我們在那裡有一支很棒的團隊與非常優秀的領導。我們一直在對市場進行教育。如你所知,我們也有一些機會提供信用相關的研討會。特別是在中國目前的信用環境下,我們看到流量大幅增加。

  • As you mentioned, we got up to 57 ratings in 2021. One of the things that's important to us is that they span the different levels of investment-grade ratings. They're broad from AAA to BBB. We rated financial institutions, corporate structured. And the regulatory environment is also one where there are some very good initiatives going on to look at changing the floor of ratings that are going to be available for financial institutions and insurance companies.

    如你提到的,我們在 2021 年達到 57 個評等。對我們而言重要的一點是,這些評等涵蓋不同層級的投資等級評等,範圍從 AAA 到 BBB。我們評等了金融機構、企業以及結構性產品。而監管環境方面,也有一些非常好的倡議正在推動,例如檢視並調整金融機構與保險公司可取得評等的下限。

  • But our revenue is still light. It's not material to the company. It's something that we're putting a major focus on in 2022, so we can drive our commercial organization faster and harder to take advantage of the really strong start that we're off to.

    但我們的營收仍然偏少,對公司而言尚不具重大性。我們在 2022 年會把它列為重點投入方向,以便加速並強化我們的商業組織,充分把握目前這個非常強勁的起步。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Hamzah Mazari。

  • Hamzah Mazari - Equity Analyst

    Hamzah Mazari - Equity Analyst

  • My question is just on Market Intelligence. Could you just remind us, are all those contracts now on enterprise-wide arrangements? And maybe do you see the mix changing with Data Management Solutions kind of being a much bigger part? And any mix changes you see within this business post-merger? I know it's one of your highest growth businesses and margins seem to have come back post some of your earlier investments.

    我的問題是關於 Market Intelligence。能否請你們提醒一下,這些合約現在是否都已轉為企業級(enterprise-wide)的安排?另外,你們是否看到組合正在改變,例如 Data Management Solutions 變成更大的一部分?以及併購後在這項業務內部是否看到任何組合變化?我知道這是你們成長最快的業務之一,而且在先前一些投資之後,利潤率似乎也已回升。

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Hamzah, definitely, what we expect to see is that the Data Management Solutions is going to grow faster and becoming a more and more prominent part of the Market Intelligence business over time. So maybe going back to a couple of the comments you made.

    Hamzah,確實,我們預期 Data Management Solutions 將以更快速度成長,並隨時間推移在 Market Intelligence 業務中變得愈來愈重要。或許回到你剛才提到的幾點。

  • With respect to enterprise-wide contracts, that process is done. So we have now all our contracts on that basis. What you're seeing is very steady and healthy growth in Desktop. We really like the commercial activity in 2021. We've seen some very healthy sales levels, and that sets us up well for 2022 from a Desktop growth perspective, 6% reported growth. And that is more or less, that mid-single-digit steady growth is to be expected going forward.

    就企業級合約而言,那個流程已經完成。因此我們現在所有合約都已採用該基礎。你所看到的是 Desktop 非常穩健且健康的成長。我們很喜歡 2021 年的商業活動表現;我們看到相當健康的銷售水準,這也讓我們在 Desktop 成長面向上為 2022 年打下良好基礎,報告口徑成長 6%。而這種大致上中個位數、穩定的成長,未來也可預期會持續。

  • Then Data Management Solutions in a normal quarter, you should see that grow at high single digits to low teens. We're a bit higher this quarter, about 11% and a particularly nice growth in Marketplace and in the Trucost area as well. So those are doing particularly very well.

    至於 Data Management Solutions,在一般季度你應該會看到高個位數到低十位數的成長。本季我們略高一些,約 11%,而且 Marketplace 以及 Trucost 領域的成長特別亮眼。所以這些表現都非常好。

  • And then lastly, you were referring to margins. We have been investing, as you know, over the last few years, a lot in new growth initiatives in Market Intelligence. And we're very happy to see that paying off from an overall revenue growth perspective. And we said that you should see margins coming back in 2021 to that mid-30 levels. And we're very happy to see that, that actually also has taken place. So Market Intelligence is very well-positioned, I think, for the next few years.

    最後,你提到利潤率。如你所知,過去幾年我們在 Market Intelligence 的新成長計畫上投入很多。我們很高興看到這些投入在整體營收成長上開始回收。我們也曾表示,2021 年利潤率應會回到 30% 中段水準;我們很高興看到這點也確實發生了。因此我認為,Market Intelligence 在未來幾年具備非常好的定位。

  • Hamzah Mazari - Equity Analyst

    Hamzah Mazari - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful. And just my follow-up question, I'll turn it over, is just around just the Ratings business. I know you highlighted your global issuance forecast for 2022. And I know your revenue differs, obviously, with that figure because of pricing and non-transactional business and mix, et cetera.

    了解。非常有幫助。我的追問是關於評等(Ratings)業務。我知道你們強調了 2022 年的全球發行量預測。我也知道你們的營收顯然會因定價、非交易型業務以及組合等因素,而與該數字有所不同。

  • But maybe could you talk about what you're seeing in Europe around issuance, maybe in Asia? I know you touched on China in some of your prepared remarks. But any thoughts as to outside of North America, how those markets look like as you look at 2022?

    但你們能否談談在歐洲看到的發行情況,或許也包括亞洲?我知道你們在準備稿中提到中國。但就北美以外而言,當你們展望 2022 年時,這些市場看起來如何?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Just to give you some thoughts about the markets. Well, first of all, the numbers we gave you were a global issuance forecast so it's taken into account all the different markets we're in. But Europe was very similar to the United States last year in full year and also in the final numbers in the quarter. Europe was down in corporates, but it was up in financial institutions as well as very strong in CLOs and structured credit.

    可以。先給你一些對市場的看法。首先,我們提供的數字是全球發行量預測,因此已納入我們所參與的所有不同市場。歐洲去年在全年以及季度的最終數字上,都與美國非常相似。歐洲的企業發行量下滑,但金融機構發行量上升,CLO 與結構性信用也非常強勁。

  • In addition, the CMBS market in Europe was strong. We saw -- it's not a big market, but there was a lot of interest in CMBS in the European market. We see the continued conditions in Europe that are strong for capital markets. There is an interest, I've mentioned this before in other calls of -- in the European policy sector to stop having all of the dependence for corporate financing coming from banks and moving more to capital markets. As that continues, we see that as a long-term valuable trend for us.

    此外,歐洲的 CMBS 市場也很強。雖然這不是一個很大的市場,但在歐洲市場對 CMBS 的興趣很高。我們看到歐洲資本市場的環境仍然強勁。我之前在其他電話會議也提過,在歐洲政策領域有一個方向,是希望停止讓企業融資過度依賴銀行,並更多轉向資本市場。隨著這個趨勢延續,我們認為這對我們而言是長期且有價值的趨勢。

  • That trend in Asia is also something that we're seeing more of as well. Just a little bit about 2020 -- 2021. In Asia, across all of Asia, both the Corporates and Financial Institutions were up. Corporates were up about 10%, and Financial Institutions were up about 14% through the year, whereas the overall structured in Asia was only up about 30%, most of that being in traditional ABS and RMBS where the major volume is.

    在亞洲,我們也看到更多類似的趨勢。稍微談一下 2020——2021 年。在亞洲、涵蓋整個亞洲範圍內,企業與金融機構的發行量都上升。企業全年約上升 10%,金融機構全年約上升 14%;而亞洲整體結構性產品僅上升約 30%,其中大部分來自傳統 ABS 與 RMBS,因為主要量體集中在那裡。

  • But we do see, again, in Asia that move towards capital markets away from banking markets as a trend. There's also a lot more M&A activity taking place and part of Asia, obviously, is China where we're on the ground floor there as that becomes a much more sophisticated market.

    但我們確實再次看到,在亞洲,從銀行市場轉向資本市場的趨勢正在發生。同時也有更多併購活動在亞洲部分地區進行;而亞洲的一部分當然是中國,我們在那裡正處於起步階段,隨著市場變得更成熟、更精緻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

    下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to touch on the cost a little bit for the -- you gave some good detail earlier on this. But in the fourth quarter, can you just touch on internal investment spending, how that may have differed dollar-wise, if you could, versus a year ago or sequentially? And also incentive compensation as well. Is that materially different? How has it accrued over the course of the year? And I have a follow-up.

    我想稍微談一下成本——你們先前已提供了一些很好的細節。不過在第四季,能否談談內部投資支出?如果可以的話,與一年前或與前一季相比,金額上有何不同?另外也想問獎酬性薪酬(incentive compensation)。是否有重大差異?它在全年累計的情況如何?我還有一個追問。

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Craig, and thanks for asking that question. So I would first would like to point out that the expenses are unusually high during this quarter. The vast majority is not recurring, and you should see continued expense discipline from us going forward.

    是的,Craig,謝謝你問這個問題。我首先想指出,本季費用異常偏高,其中絕大多數並非經常性項目;未來你應該會看到我們持續維持費用紀律。

  • So having said that, you were specifically asking about certain categories. So what you're seeing here from an expense growth perspective that the majority of the growth was coming from variable expenses, performance-related expenses, which I consider good expenses because they're directly correlated with healthy sales and revenue activity. So these are commissions, royalties and incentive compensation.

    在此基礎上,你特別問到某些類別。從費用成長的角度來看,你看到的大部分成長來自變動費用、與績效相關的費用;我認為這是好的費用,因為它們與健康的銷售與營收活動直接相關。這些包括佣金、權利金以及獎酬性薪酬。

  • Incentive compensation, you asked a specific question around that. We're accruing at this moment significantly above 100% for our short-term incentive compensation, and that's a bit higher compared to 2020. And also the performance factors of our long-term incentive compensation are running a bit higher than in 2020. So that drove some of the additional expenses.

    你對獎酬性薪酬提出了具體問題。我們目前對短期獎酬性薪酬的提列(accruing)顯著高於 100%,相較 2020 年略高。另外,我們長期獎酬性薪酬的績效因子也比 2020 年略高。因此帶動了一些額外費用。

  • With respect to growth investments. Although you saw that they were overall a bit lower compared to the year before, that doesn't mean that it doesn't have an impact on the overall expense levels because some of those growth initiatives go to a baseline. And it means that some of the new growth initiatives are still incremental to what we already have in place. So overall, growth in net investments drove approximately $15 million of the expense growth during the fourth quarter. So we think these are clear reasons why the expense growth is happening. The underlying recurring expense growth is actually very limited and very minimal.

    至於成長投資,雖然你看到整體上相較前一年略低,但這不代表它對整體費用水準沒有影響,因為其中一些成長計畫會轉為基礎成本(baseline)。這也意味著,某些新的成長計畫仍是在我們既有基礎之上的增量投入。因此整體而言,淨投資的成長在第四季約帶動 1,500 萬美元的費用成長。我們認為這些是費用成長發生的明確原因。底層的經常性費用成長其實非常有限、非常小。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • And my follow-up, I guess, you guys touched on a little bit earlier about -- upon bank loans, the outlook for that. Can you just go a little bit deeper? I mean, that's obviously a huge wildcard this year. Obviously, it's not included in your global debt issuance forecast. So maybe touch on a little deeper what do you think the likely outcomes are for bank loans versus last year's strength of about 100%? Maybe touch on CLOs as well as they think about this new year.

    我接著追問一下,我想你們稍早有稍微提到——關於銀行貸款的展望。能否再深入一點?我的意思是,這顯然是今年一個很大的不確定因素。顯然它沒有被納入你們的全球債務發行預測中。所以也許更深入談談,你們認為銀行貸款相較於去年約 100% 的強勁表現,可能的結果會是什麼?也請談談 CLO,因為大家在思考新的一年時也會關注這一塊。

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Craig. Yes. Right now, I can talk to you a little bit about the conditions, but we're not giving any guidance right now for 2022. But as I mentioned, the conditions for the market as of the current market are still quite favorable for bank loans.

    謝謝你,Craig。是的。目前我可以跟你談談一些市場狀況,但我們現在不提供 2022 年的任何指引。不過如我提到的,就目前市場而言,銀行貸款市場的條件仍然相當有利。

  • In particular, the M&A market, we see is strong. There's a large backlog of transactions,, which have already been announced that haven't been closed yet. You have a large private equity pipeline of transactions, which are going on. Even though interest rates are starting to go up, and we've seen the 10-year treasury hasn't hit 2%, but it's getting closer. But spreads are tight, and interest rates are still very low on a historical basis.

    特別是併購(M&A)市場,我們看到仍然強勁。有大量交易積壓,已經宣布但尚未完成交割。你也有一個很大的私募股權交易管線正在進行。即使利率開始上升,我們也看到 10 年期美國公債殖利率尚未到 2%,但已經更接近了。不過利差仍然很緊,且以歷史基準來看利率仍然非常低。

  • There's a lot of demand as well from insurance companies, from banks and other institutional investors for floating rate paper. So we do think that the conditions are still very strong for the loan market. But as of now, we're not giving any specific guidance for 2022.

    此外,保險公司、銀行以及其他機構投資人對浮動利率票券也有很大的需求。因此我們確實認為,貸款市場的條件仍然非常強勁。但截至目前,我們不會對 2022 年提供任何具體指引。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

    下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Andrew Nicholas。

  • Trevor Romeo - Associate

    Trevor Romeo - Associate

  • This is actually Trevor Romeo in for Andrew. Just a couple of quick ones for me. First, just wanted to go a bit deeper on Platts with 12% growth in the quarter, I think 18% growth in the U.S. I know some of that might be onetime from the commercial settlement. Is there anything you'd call out there in terms of drivers of that strength? And how much is the strong commodity market driving growth kind of across the various areas of Platts right now?

    我其實是代替 Andrew 的 Trevor Romeo。我這邊有幾個很快的問題。第一個,想再深入問一下 Platts,本季成長 12%,我記得美國成長 18%。我知道其中一部分可能是商業和解的一次性因素。就這個強勁表現的驅動因素,你會特別點出什麼嗎?另外,目前強勁的大宗商品市場,在多大程度上正推動 Platts 各個領域的成長?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Trevor, definitely very pleased to see such a high revenue growth in Platts. I think it has been a long time ago, we see Platts growing in the double-digit space. So this is really excellent results. You're right, there was that $4 million commercial settlement in those numbers. If you would take that out, you're at approximately 10% growth for revenues for Platts in the fourth quarter, so still quite strong.

    Trevor,我們確實非常高興看到 Platts 有這麼高的營收成長。我想已經很久沒有看到 Platts 出現雙位數成長了,所以這真的是非常出色的成果。你說得對,這些數字裡包含了 400 萬美元的商業和解款。如果把它扣除,Platts 第四季營收成長大約是 10%,仍然相當強勁。

  • So what is happening behind there in terms of revenue growth? We see strong commercial momentum in both the core business, which is the Price Reporting business and the Insights business. And that is mostly because we see customers being healthy with the current commodity prices. The current commodity market environment is actually very good for our customers.

    那麼,背後的營收成長是怎麼來的?我們看到核心業務——也就是價格報導(Price Reporting)業務與洞察(Insights)業務——都有強勁的商業動能。這主要是因為在目前的大宗商品價格水準下,我們看到客戶的經營狀況良好。當前的大宗商品市場環境其實對我們的客戶非常有利。

  • And then also Global Trading Services is doing well. We're growing clearly here based on the overall price volatility in the markets. And then the third reason behind this strong revenue growth of Platts is the new initiatives. We have invested in new initiatives like LNG, energy transition and agriculture, and they also start to pay off at this moment. So very pleased with the results of Platts overall.

    另外,全球交易服務(Global Trading Services)也表現良好。我們在這裡的成長,明顯是受惠於市場整體價格波動。第三個推動 Platts 強勁營收成長的原因是新計畫。我們投資了像是 LNG、能源轉型與農業等新計畫,而它們在此刻也開始帶來回報。因此我們對 Platts 整體的成果非常滿意。

  • Trevor Romeo - Associate

    Trevor Romeo - Associate

  • Great. Great. And then just a quick follow-up. Just wanted to ask about your recent acquisition of the Climate Service. I'm sure that's probably a fairly small acquisition, but just wondering if you could talk a bit more about how that kind of physical climate risk more broadly fits into your ESG strategy?

    很好,很好。接著一個快速追問:想請教你們最近收購 The Climate Service。我相信這可能是一筆相對小的收購,但想請你多談談,這種「實體氣候風險」在更廣泛的層面上,如何融入你們的 ESG 策略?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. The Climate Service is a really interesting business, and it's an excellent fit for us with the suite of climate products, in particular, that we've been putting together, both homegrown as well as the Trucost acquisition we made 4.5 years ago. It brings a platform called Climanomics, which is you're able to build across different data sets. It allows companies to look at their physical risk in many different categories, cyclones, hurricanes, fire, floods, et cetera. And it can be modeled to different approaches. As an example, the task force for climate-related financial disclosure modeling.

    是的。The Climate Service 是一個非常有意思的業務,且與我們正在打造的一整套氣候產品非常契合,特別是我們近年來整合的產品組合——包括自研產品,以及我們在 4.5 年前收購 Trucost。它帶來了一個名為 Climanomics 的平台,讓你能夠在不同資料集之間進行建構與整合。它讓企業可以在許多不同類別中檢視其實體風險,例如氣旋、颶風、火災、洪水等等。而且它可以用不同方法進行建模。舉例來說,依照氣候相關財務揭露工作小組(TCFD)的建模方式。

  • So this is something that we find that it's a great fit for our organization. But more importantly, it also brings a really talented group of people, people who are entrepreneurial. They've got passion. They've got energy, and they're going to be a great addition to S&P Global as well because they're going to bring all of that energy as we build out even further our Sustainable1 business platform.

    因此我們認為這非常適合我們的組織。但更重要的是,它也帶來了一群非常有才華的人才——具備創業精神、充滿熱情、精力充沛——他們也會成為 S&P Global 的很棒補強,因為在我們進一步打造 Sustainable1 業務平台時,他們會帶來所有這些能量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

    下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Owen Lau。

  • Kwun Sum Lau - Associate

    Kwun Sum Lau - Associate

  • I want to get your thought about the potential development of ESG this year. And there has been a lot of conversation about the inconsistency of ESG data and ratings, and there are obviously some benefits of ESG data as well. But could you please talk about some of the potential events or development this year that can potentially get us closer to a more standardized ESG disclosure or ESG data and ratings?

    我想了解你對今年 ESG 可能發展的看法。市場上有很多討論在談 ESG 資料與評級的不一致性,當然 ESG 資料也有一些明顯的好處。你能否談談,今年有哪些可能的事件或發展,能讓我們更接近更標準化的 ESG 揭露,或更標準化的 ESG 資料與評級?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Owen. This is really an important area for us, both as S&P Global as well as an industry. And by that, I mean, the entire financial industry as we look to this important factor that starts to get included in people's decision-making.

    是的,謝謝你,Owen。這對我們——無論是作為 S&P Global,或作為整個產業——都是非常重要的領域。我所說的產業,是指整個金融產業,因為我們正在關注這個重要因素,而它正開始被納入人們的決策之中。

  • What we see is that the ESG market itself for data and analytics as scores, it started to evolve as more and more insurance companies, institutional investors, asset managers take those factors into account as they make decisions. And as of now, as you know, the factors, which are being used by different organizations are not the same.

    我們看到 ESG 市場本身——包含資料與分析以及評分——正在演進,因為越來越多保險公司、機構投資人、資產管理公司在做決策時會把這些因素納入考量。而截至目前,如你所知,不同機構所使用的因素並不相同。

  • You have organizations that care more about climate. You have some that care more about diversity, inclusion or supply chain. And so there's different language out there, whether it's an impact fund, it's an ESG fund, it's an ESG approach. And we're working very closely with different organizations such as the IFRS and the ISSP. They're setting up the International Sustainability Standards for disclosure. The IOSCO, which is the International Organization of Securities Commissioners, is looking at new rules around the globe for disclosure as well, both disclosure from the point of view of issuers, but also disclosure that could be asked for by different types of investors as they sell their funds or sell their investments.

    有些機構更重視氣候;有些更重視多元、共融或供應鏈。因此市場上存在不同的語言:不論是影響力基金、ESG 基金、或 ESG 方法。我們正與不同組織密切合作,例如 IFRS 與 ISSP。他們正在建立用於揭露的《國際永續準則》(International Sustainability Standards)。IOSCO(國際證券管理機構組織)也正在全球範圍內研究新的揭露規則——既包括從發行人角度的揭露,也包括投資人類型在銷售基金或投資產品時可能被要求的揭露。

  • We do think that there is a really good effort going on across the private sector as well as NGOs, along with these regulatory agencies to start addressing what would be the potential regulatory requests as well as the market themselves coming to standards of how we're going to be disclosing this. S&P Global for our products, all of our products, we provide very simple, clear, consistent disclosure on everything that we are providing in the ESG products.

    我們確實認為,私部門與 NGO,以及這些監管機構之間,正在進行非常良好的努力,來開始釐清潛在的監管要求,以及市場本身如何就揭露標準達成一致。就 S&P Global 的產品而言,我們在所有 ESG 產品上,提供非常簡單、清楚且一致的揭露。

  • Our disclosure is built in a way that it's consistent, it's transparent, it's comparable. You can see what the actual criteria is that's used to determine an index or a score or the weighting of the score. And we think that, that's going to be a key differentiating factor for us as we build up our ESG business.

    我們的揭露方式具備一致性、透明性與可比性。你可以看到用來決定指數、分數或分數權重的實際準則是什麼。我們認為,這將會是我們在建立 ESG 業務時的一個關鍵差異化因素。

  • Kwun Sum Lau - Associate

    Kwun Sum Lau - Associate

  • Got it. That's very helpful. And then one follow-up question's about the buyback. And again, and I know you don't provide any specific guidance on buyback, but how should we think about kind of the magnitude and also the timing of the ASR? I mean, the stocks have traded down quite a bit since the beginning of this year. Would you be opportunistic to do one large ASR or you would do multiple ASR for the rest of this year?

    了解,這很有幫助。接著一個追問是關於庫藏股回購。同樣地,我知道你們不提供任何具體的回購指引,但我們應該如何思考 ASR(加速股票回購)的規模與時點?我的意思是,股價自今年年初以來已經下跌不少。你們會把握機會做一筆較大的 ASR,還是會在今年剩餘時間做多次 ASR?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Owen, let me explain to you philosophically what we are having in mind. Obviously, we need to do a catch-up because we have not been able to do buybacks over the last 2 years. The same applies for IHS Markit. We have the opportunity to do buybacks based on the proceeds of some of those divestitures. We're also, of course, looking at the overall refinancing that we can do of the IHS Markit debt and potentially some opportunity for upsizing. And then very quickly, we would like to go in a normal course return of capital. We still are committed to the capital targets that provided the call when we announced the merger, so at least 85% of return of free cash flow. So we definitely are ready to resume buybacks after the transaction is completed, and we would like to do that as quickly as possible in order to get in a normal rhythm again for the combined company.

    Owen,我從理念層面跟你解釋我們的想法。顯然,我們需要補進度,因為過去兩年我們無法進行回購。IHS Markit 也是同樣情況。我們有機會利用部分資產剝離的所得款項來進行回購。當然,我們也在評估 IHS Markit 債務整體可進行的再融資,以及可能擴大規模的機會。然後我們希望很快回到正常的資本回饋節奏。我們仍然承諾在宣布合併時所提供的資本目標,也就是至少將自由現金流的 85% 回饋給股東。因此,在交易完成後,我們確實已準備好恢復回購,並希望盡快進行,以便讓合併後的公司回到正常的節奏。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

  • Jeffrey Marc Silber - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Jeffrey Marc Silber - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • I know it's late. I'll just ask one. In your comments, you talked a bit about labor cost. I was wondering if you can drill down a little bit more. First of all, is it more difficult to find and retain people? I know a lot of companies are talking about that? And then what does that translate into the labor costs you've been incurring and what you expect for this year?

    我知道時間很晚了。我只問一個。在你的評論中,你談到了一些勞動成本。我想知道你是否可以再深入一點。首先,是否更難找到並留住人才?我知道很多公司都在談這件事。那麼,這會如何反映在你們已經發生的勞動成本上,以及你們對今年的預期?

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Jeff. I'm going to start and then hand it over to Ewout. As I mentioned earlier, it's critical for us that we are competitive, and we're paying market rates in all of the different markets we're in. We're seeing a little bit of inflation or increase in job expenses, wage expenses, as I mentioned, in some specific areas like high-demand technology areas, data scientists.

    謝謝你,Jeff。我先回答,然後交給 Ewout。正如我先前提到的,對我們而言,保持競爭力至關重要,我們在所處的各個市場都按市場水準支付薪酬。我們確實看到一些通膨或職務費用、薪資費用的上升,正如我提到的,在某些特定領域,例如需求很高的科技領域、資料科學家。

  • One market, in particular, we're seeing increase in some pressures in India. And I'll give you an example of something you might not have thought of, but we're actually seeing a lot of our recruiters getting recruited away. People are trying to hire people who can hire people.

    特別是在一個市場,我們看到印度的壓力有所上升。我舉一個你可能沒想到的例子:我們其實看到很多招募人員被挖角。大家都在試圖聘用「能夠聘用人才的人」。

  • So we're seeing certain areas where we do see some increase in turnover, and we're seeing clearly the areas that we're watching quite carefully. But our philosophy is to pay market rates to ensure that this is a great place to work, and Ewout can talk a little bit more of how that translates.

    因此,我們在某些領域確實看到離職率有所上升,也清楚知道哪些領域需要非常密切地關注。但我們的理念是按市場水準支付薪酬,以確保這是一個很棒的工作場所;Ewout 可以再談談這如何轉化為影響。

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. In addition to what Doug said, I think we are not having any problem with hiring. We're still a very attractive company. People like to work for us. And to stay competitively from a pay perspective, we have made adjustments for certain job groups. Think about the Ratings analysts, technology and ESG. And we're also increasing the merit levels in certain jurisdictions.

    是的。除了 Doug 所說的之外,我認為我們在招募方面沒有任何問題。我們仍然是一家非常有吸引力的公司,大家喜歡為我們工作。為了在薪酬方面保持競爭力,我們已針對某些職務群組做了調整,例如評級分析師、科技與 ESG。我們也在某些司法管轄區提高績效調薪幅度。

  • So that is just to make sure we stay competitive. But overall, as I said to an earlier question, we believe that the impact is manageable because we have opportunities also to look at productivity, synergy, efficiencies, automation as well as the opportunity to look at some contractual terms and fees over time.

    這些都是為了確保我們保持競爭力。但整體而言,正如我在先前的問題中所說,我們認為影響是可控的,因為我們也有機會從生產力、協同效應、效率、自动化著手,同時也有機會隨時間檢視一些合約條款與費率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

    我們最後一個問題來自 Baird 的 Jeff Meuler。

  • Jeffrey P. Meuler - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeffrey P. Meuler - Senior Research Analyst

  • I heard you loud and clear, no guidance at this time. But I thought Ewout said that you expect to grow revenue in all of your businesses in '22. If I could just confirm if that's what was said, obviously, asking specifically for Ratings, if that's the case.

    我很清楚地聽到了,你們目前不提供指引。但我想 Ewout 說過,你們預期在 2022 年所有業務都會有營收成長。如果我可以確認一下是否確實如此,當然特別是針對 Ratings(評級)而言,如果是這樣的話。

  • And then a related technical question. Just given your team -- your Ratings team maintaining the down 2 issuance forecast, but also explicitly saying risks way to the downside. Did they lower the low end of the range and that down [8 7] at the low end already reflects their current views of that downside risk? Or did they maintain the whole range and their kind of probability weighting different parts of the range or think there could be a future adjustment?

    接著是一個相關的技術性問題。考量你們的團隊——你們的評級團隊維持「發行量預測下滑 2%」的看法,但也明確表示風險偏向下行。他們是否下調了區間的低端,而低端的下滑 [8 7] 是否已反映他們目前對下行風險的看法?還是他們維持整個區間,並以不同機率權重看待區間的不同部分,或認為未來可能會再調整?

  • Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

    Ewout Lucien Steenbergen - Executive VP & CFO

  • Jeff, first, to your question about revenue growth. Indeed, I said before that we expect to grow revenues in all of our businesses in 2022 and that we'll get back to you with more specifics during the merger call.

    Jeff,首先,關於你問的營收成長。確實,我之前說過,我們預期 2022 年在所有業務都能實現營收成長;我們會在合併電話會議時再向你提供更具體的資訊。

  • With respect to your question about some of the ranges with respect to the issuance forecast by our research group, I think you're right that compared to a quarter ago, some of the ranges have widened. But overall, the issuance forecast is still at that minus 2% level. And ranges have become wider because as we showed you in one of those slides in the prepared remarks, clearly, there is more uncertainty in the macro environment.

    至於你問到我們研究團隊對發行量預測的一些區間,我想你說得對:相較於一季之前,有些區間已經變得更寬。但整體而言,發行量預測仍維持在下滑 2% 的水準。區間變寬,是因為正如我們在事先準備的講稿中某張投影片所示,宏觀環境的不確定性顯然更高。

  • So the level of headwinds and potential tailwinds that we're seeing is a bit larger. So ranges are wider, but overall, the midpoint is still the same.

    因此,我們看到的逆風與潛在順風幅度更大一些。區間更寬,但整體的中位數仍然相同。

  • Jeffrey P. Meuler - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeffrey P. Meuler - Senior Research Analyst

  • Makes sense.

    有道理。

  • Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Douglas L. Peterson - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Jeff. And let me just reinforce what Ewout said about the businesses and just clarify that this is S&P Global businesses that we're talking about. We have no discussion whatsoever about the IHS Markit businesses.

    是的。謝謝你,Jeff。我再強調一下 Ewout 對各項業務的說法,並澄清我們談的是 S&P Global 的業務。我們完全沒有討論 IHS Markit 的業務。

  • But let me wrap up the call. And I want to thank everyone again for joining the call for your questions, for your support. I want to thank, again, as I always do, our very dedicated people. This has now been 2 years for the pandemic. We're going into our third year.

    不過我來總結這通電話會議。我想再次感謝大家參與、提出問題並給予支持。我也想再次——一如既往——感謝我們非常敬業的同仁。疫情至今已經 2 年了,我們正要進入第三年。

  • We've asked our people to do a lot last year in the last 2 years. And we want to ensure that they're fully prepared for the expected merger with IHS Markit because we're going to be working really hard and running fast as soon as that closes.

    過去一年、過去兩年,我們要求同仁做了很多。我們也希望確保他們已為預期與 IHS Markit 的合併做好充分準備,因為一旦交易完成,我們就會非常努力、全速運轉。

  • And throughout 2021, we continue to perform, as you saw today, with the strong financial results and the progress on our strategic initiatives, especially those that are going to be driving growth in the future and Kensho, data sciences, data analytics, ESG, what we've talked about with investment in our global businesses.

    而在 2021 年,我們持續交出表現,正如你們今天所看到的,財務結果強勁,策略性計畫也持續推進,尤其是那些將在未來推動成長的項目:Kensho、資料科學、資料分析、ESG,以及我們談到的對全球業務的投資。

  • Going back to one of the first questions we received about the merger. We're very excited about the merger and the progress that we've been making, planning for the merger. We're going to host the call as soon as it's completed. We'll do a post-merger investor call. We can provide an update on the company's strategy, the business segments, the synergies, the investment program, share repurchases, things that you asked about today or wanted to ask about today, and that would include guidance.

    回到我們收到的最初幾個關於合併的問題之一。我們對這次合併以及我們在合併規劃上取得的進展感到非常振奮。我們會在交易完成後盡快舉辦電話會議,進行合併後的投資人電話會議。我們可以就公司的策略、業務部門、協同效應、投資計畫、股票回購等——也就是你們今天問到或想問到的事項——提供更新,並且也會包含指引。

  • One last point I'd like to make on the call is I want to thank Chip Merritt. He's been an incredible partner as our Head of IR. He's going to still be with us for a few more months until May. But for the past 9 years, he's been a great partner. He's helped position S&P Global as the leading financial data and analytics and benchmark company, and always with a great sense of humor. So Chip, thank you so much for your partnership throughout. We couldn't have never done as well as we had without you.

    我在電話會議上最後還想提一點:我要感謝 Chip Merritt。他作為我們的投資人關係主管(Head of IR)一直是非常出色的夥伴。他還會再與我們共事幾個月直到 5 月。但在過去 9 年裡,他一直是很棒的合作夥伴。他協助將 S&P Global 定位為領先的金融資料與分析以及基準公司,而且總是很有幽默感。Chip,非常感謝你一路以來的合作。我們若沒有你,不可能有今天這樣的表現。

  • So again, I want to thank everyone for joining the call today. We're very proud of all that we've been able to achieve, but we also have a lot to look forward to. So thank you, again, everyone.

    所以再次感謝大家今天參與這通電話會議。我們對自己所達成的一切感到非常自豪,但我們也有很多值得期待的事情。再次謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes this morning's call. A PDF version of the presentation slides is available now for downloading from investor.spglobal.com. Replays of the entire call will be available in 2 hours. The webcast with audio and slides will be maintained on S&P Global's website for 1 year. The audio-only telephone replay will be maintained for 1 month. On behalf of S&P Global, we thank you for participating, and wish you a good day.

    今天上午的電話會議到此結束。簡報投影片的 PDF 版本現已可從 investor.spglobal.com 下載。整場電話會議的重播將在 2 小時後提供。包含音訊與投影片的網路直播將在 S&P Global 的網站上保留 1 年。僅音訊的電話重播將保留 1 個月。我謹代表 S&P Global,感謝各位參與,並祝各位有美好的一天。