標普全球 (SPGI) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining today's S&P Global Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Presenting on today's call are Doug Peterson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

各位早安，感謝您參加今日的 S&P Global 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。今天出席並進行簡報的有：總裁兼執行長 Doug Peterson，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ewout Steenbergen。

We issued a press release with our results earlier today. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com. The matters discussed in today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates and descriptions of future events.

我們已於今日稍早發布新聞稿公布業績。如需新聞稿與財務附表，可至 investor.spglobal.com 下載。今日電話會議所討論事項可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義之「前瞻性陳述」，包括對未來事件的預測、估計與描述。

Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. A discussion of these risks and uncertainties can be found in our Forms 10-K, 10-Q and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

任何此類陳述均係基於目前預期與當前經濟狀況，並受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所預期者存在重大差異。關於相關風險與不確定性的討論，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K、10-Q 表格及其他定期報告。

In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we're providing non-GAAP adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the company's operating performance between periods and to view the company's business from the same perspective as management. The earnings release contains exhibits that reconcile the difference between the non-GAAP measures and the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

在今日的財報新聞稿及本次電話會議中，我們提供非 GAAP 調整後財務資訊。提供此資訊旨在使投資人能對公司各期間的營運表現進行有意義的比較，並以與管理階層相同的視角檢視公司業務。財報新聞稿包含附表，用以調節非 GAAP 指標與依美國 GAAP 計算之可比財務指標之差異。

I would also like to call your attention to a specific European regulation. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should contact Investor Relations to better understand the potential impact of this legislation on the investor and the company. We are aware that we have some media representatives with us on the call. However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask that questions from the media be directed to our Media Relations team, whose contact information can be found in the press release.

我也想提醒各位注意一項特定的歐洲法規。任何已持有或預期取得 S&P Global 5% 或以上持股的投資人，應聯繫投資人關係部門，以更充分了解該法規對投資人及本公司的潛在影響。我們知道本次會議中也有部分媒體代表與會；然而，本通話旨在面向投資人，媒體提問請洽我們的媒體關係團隊，其聯絡資訊可於新聞稿中查詢。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Doug Peterson. Doug?

接下來，我想把電話交給 Doug Peterson。Doug？

Thank you, Mark. We're pleased to discuss our third quarter results and how we're growing, innovating and executing with discipline even in the face of a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. With each quarter that passes, we see further evidence of the strength of our combined company. While no one could have predicted what this year would have looked like, we have benefited from the diversification of our revenue and profit streams and that ballast has provided great resilience as we continue to navigate choppy waters.

謝謝你，Mark。我們很高興與各位討論第三季業績，以及即使在具挑戰性的總體經濟背景下，我們仍如何持續成長、創新並以紀律執行。隨著每一季推進，我們都看到更多證據顯示合併後公司的實力。雖然沒有人能預測今年會是什麼樣貌，但我們受益於收入與獲利來源的多元化，而這樣的「壓艙石」在我們持續穿越顛簸水域之際，提供了極佳的韌性。

It's been nearly 2 years since we announced the merger, and I'm proud of the progress we've made. We continue to put the customer at the core of everything we do and we continue to demonstrate a clear commitment to our people while maintaining a high standard of operational excellence. We have an incredibly bright future, and I'm excited to share more with you about our strategic vision at our Investor Day on December 1.

距離我們宣布合併已將近兩年，我為我們取得的進展感到自豪。我們持續把客戶置於一切工作的核心，同時也持續展現對員工的明確承諾，並維持高標準的營運卓越。我們的未來非常光明，我也很期待在 12 月 1 日的投資人日與各位分享更多我們的策略願景。

As we look at our third quarter financial highlights, I want to remind you that the adjusted financial metrics we'll be discussing today refer to non-GAAP adjusted metrics in the current period and non-GAAP pro forma adjusted metrics in the year ago period. Revenue decreased 8% year-over-year or 6% ex-FX, with growth in 4 of our 6 divisions being offset by continued decreases in Ratings, as well as a year-over-year decline in Engineering Solutions this quarter, due to the timing impact of a single product that Ewout will discuss later.

在回顧第三季財務重點時，我想提醒各位：我們今天討論的調整後財務指標，於本期係指非 GAAP 調整後指標，而去年同期則為非 GAAP 備考（pro forma）調整後指標。營收年減 8%，若排除匯率影響（ex-FX）則年減 6%。我們 6 個事業部中有 4 個呈現成長，但被 Ratings 持續下滑所抵銷；此外，本季 Engineering Solutions 亦較去年同期下滑，原因在於單一產品時點影響，Ewout 稍後將進一步說明。

Recurring revenue increased 2% year-over-year, representing 84% of revenue in the quarter. Adjusted expenses declined 5% year-over-year as cost synergies and disciplined expense management offset some of the inflationary impact we're seeing in labor and technology. Outside of the Ratings business, we saw an average of approximately 250 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion year-over-year.

經常性收入年增 2%，占本季營收的 84%。調整後費用年減 5%，成本綜效與嚴謹的費用管理抵銷了我們在勞動與科技方面所見的部分通膨影響。除 Ratings 業務之外，我們看到調整後營業利益率平均約擴張 250 個基點（basis points）。

We're updating our guidance ranges to reflect continued headwinds in Ratings as well as better-than-expected performance in Indices. Guidance ranges for our other 4 divisions are unchanged from last quarter.

我們正在更新指引區間，以反映 Ratings 持續面臨逆風，以及 Indices 表現優於預期。我們其餘 4 個事業部的指引區間則與上季相同、維持不變。

I'd also like to share a few other highlights from the third quarter. As I mentioned, we're coming up on 2 years since the merger was announced and nearly 8 months since the close. Our post-merger integration efforts are proceeding on track, but very importantly, we're outperforming on both cost and revenue synergies. Our customer conversations remain encouraging despite the economic environment.

我也想分享第三季的其他幾項重點。如前所述，距離宣布合併已近兩年，距離交易完成也將近 8 個月。我們的併購後整合工作按計畫推進；更重要的是，我們在成本綜效與營收綜效兩方面的表現均優於預期。儘管經濟環境如此，我們與客戶的對話仍然令人鼓舞。

We continue to see significant growth in multiple business lines due to secular trends that will likely benefit us for years to come, like energy transition as well as the near-term benefit we see from volatility and the need for insights and analytics in times of turbulence. We also remain committed to the capital allocation plan we laid out for you at the time the merger closed. We're on track to deploy the full $12 billion in funds for accelerated share repurchases by year-end.

我們持續看到多條業務線因長期結構性趨勢而顯著成長，這些趨勢可能在未來多年持續帶來助益，例如能源轉型；同時，在市場動盪時期，對洞察、資訊與分析的需求也帶來短期利多。我們也持續致力於在合併完成時向各位說明的資本配置計畫。我們正按進度在年底前完成加速庫藏股回購（accelerated share repurchases）所需的 120 億美元資金部署。

Turning to the commercial success we're seeing in the business. The merger continues to generate encouraging conversations with our customers about the increased value we offer as a combined company. In Market Intelligence, we developed a strong commercial pipeline in September, and we believe we will see a reacceleration of the Desktop business in the fourth quarter. Between Market Intelligence and Commodity Insights, we've generated well over 3,000 cross-sell referrals since the merger closed, and the conversion rates are strong.

接著談談我們在業務端所見的商業成功。合併持續促成與客戶之間令人振奮的對話，討論作為合併後公司我們所能提供的更高價值。在 Market Intelligence 方面，我們於 9 月建立了強勁的商機管線（commercial pipeline），並相信第四季 Desktop 業務將重新加速。在 Market Intelligence 與 Commodity Insights 之間，自合併完成以來我們已產生超過 3,000 筆交叉銷售轉介（cross-sell referrals），且轉換率表現強勁。

Despite the issuance environment, our Ratings teams remain highly engaged. We remain connected with investors and issuers to maintain relationships and ensure we have the appropriate understanding of their needs in advance of any recovery in the debt markets. Commodity Insights and Mobility are both seeing significantly improved retention rates relative to recent history as well as strong competitive wins and new customer growth.

儘管發行環境不利，我們的 Ratings 團隊仍高度投入。我們持續與投資人及發行人保持連結，以維繫關係，並在債務市場任何復甦之前，確保我們對其需求有適切的理解。Commodity Insights 與 Mobility 的留存率相較近期歷史均顯著改善，同時也取得強勁的競爭性勝出與新客戶成長。

We saw a very important win in our Indices business this quarter as a large Japanese asset manager launched the first cross-asset ETF in Japan based on both iBoxx Fixed Income and S&P Dow Jones Equity Indices. While it's still early in our efforts in cross-asset indices, this launch is powerful proof of the demand for such products among global asset managers.

本季我們在 Indices 業務取得一項非常重要的勝利：一家大型日本資產管理公司在日本推出首檔跨資產 ETF，該 ETF 同時以 iBoxx 固定收益與 S&P Dow Jones 股票指數為基礎。雖然我們在跨資產指數方面的努力仍處於早期階段，但此次推出有力證明全球資產管理公司對此類產品的需求。

Now to recap the financial results for the third quarter. Revenue decreased 8% to $2.86 billion or 6% constant currency. Our adjusted operating profit decreased 12% to $1.3 billion. Our adjusted pro forma operating profit margin decreased approximately 200 basis points to 46% as both profits and margin were negatively impacted by the decrease in Ratings transaction revenue, partially offset by cost synergies realized in the quarter.

現在回顧第三季財務結果。營收下降 8% 至 28.6 億美元；以固定匯率計算（constant currency）則下降 6%。調整後營業利益下降 12% 至 13 億美元。調整後備考（pro forma）營業利益率約下降 200 個基點至 46%，因 Ratings 交易型收入下滑對獲利與利潤率造成負面影響，但部分被本季實現的成本綜效所抵銷。

Our non-Ratings businesses in aggregate grew revenue 4% in the quarter compared to prior year. As you know, we measure and track adjusted segment operating profit margin on a trailing 12-month basis, which was 45.5% as of the third quarter. Despite the impact of the issuance environment, we benefited from the resiliency of our businesses as well as disciplined cost management and cost synergies to significantly moderate the impact to our adjusted EPS, which declined only 4% year-over-year.

我們的非 Ratings 業務合計在本季營收較去年同期成長 4%。如各位所知，我們以過去 12 個月（trailing 12-month）為基礎衡量並追蹤調整後分部營業利益率，截至第三季為 45.5%。儘管發行環境帶來影響，我們仍受益於各項業務的韌性、嚴謹的成本管理與成本綜效，從而大幅緩和對調整後每股盈餘（adjusted EPS）的衝擊；調整後 EPS 年減僅 4%。

Looking across the 6 divisions. I'm pleased to report positive growth across 4 of our divisions, with Ratings continuing to work through a difficult issuance cycle and Engineering Solutions entering an off-cycle quarter without the sale of a core product that is released once every 2 years. Throughout the year, we've seen outsized growth in certain products as customers depend on our data and information to make informed decisions during uncertain times. We saw double-digit revenue growth in multiple product lines as a result.

從 6 個事業部來看，我很高興報告其中 4 個事業部呈現正成長；Ratings 仍在艱難的發行週期中調整，而 Engineering Solutions 則進入非核心產品銷售的「非週期」季度，因其核心產品每兩年才發布一次。全年以來，我們在某些產品上看到超常成長，因客戶在不確定時期仰賴我們的數據與資訊以做出更明智的決策。因此，多條產品線出現兩位數的營收成長。

Within our Indices business, revenue from exchange-traded derivatives outperformed our internal expectations, growing nearly 40% year-over-year. Our CDS Indices, which include the CDX and iTraxx Index families increased 66%. Markets continue to recognize our leadership in areas like climate and financial data, and we provide a consolidated platform on which to access information. Whether it's tracking market movements, company performance or identifying physical risk from weather events, our customers continue to come to us for help navigating the uncertainty. This is evident in the growth we saw in key product offerings for Market Intelligence, including Trucost and Equities, Data and Analytics.

在 Indices 業務方面，交易所交易衍生品（exchange-traded derivatives）收入表現優於我們的內部預期，年增近 40%。我們的 CDS 指數（包含 CDX 與 iTraxx 指數家族）成長 66%。市場持續認可我們在氣候與金融數據等領域的領導地位，而我們也提供一個整合平台以存取資訊。無論是追蹤市場走勢、公司表現，或辨識天氣事件造成的實體風險，我們的客戶持續向我們尋求協助以因應不確定性。這也反映在 Market Intelligence 關鍵產品的成長上，包括 Trucost 以及 Equities、Data and Analytics。

I'm pleased to mark the first anniversary of the launch of Platts Dimensions Pro, a one-stop experience across Platts benchmark price assessments, news and analytics spanning 13 commodities, including energy transition. Over the last year, we've continuously increased functionality, introducing new features on a regular basis. This unified platform is gaining clear recognition with active user growth nearly doubling in just the last 6 months. Moreover, some of our newer benchmarks continue to expand their market presence. Our low-sulfur marine fuel assessment is a great indicator of the trajectory of the successful new benchmark. Assessments like this often take multiple years to truly scale and become literal market benchmarks.

我很高興迎來 Platts Dimensions Pro 上線一週年。這是一個一站式體驗平台，整合 Platts 基準價格評估、新聞與分析，涵蓋 13 種商品（包括能源轉型相關）。過去一年，我們持續提升功能並定期推出新特色。這個統一平台正獲得明確認可，活躍用戶成長在過去 6 個月幾乎翻倍。此外，我們部分較新的基準也持續擴大其市場能見度。我們的低硫船用燃料評估是成功新基準發展軌跡的良好指標。此類評估通常需要數年時間才能真正擴張規模並成為名副其實的市場基準。

In the third quarter, approximately 1.3 billion barrels of fuel were traded based on our price assessment, representing a 15% increase compared to last year. Our iron ore assessment has been the primary physical market pricing reference for seaborne fine iron ore delivered to China for over 10 years, and it's still growing at an impressive rate.

在第三季，約有13億桶燃料是依據我們的價格評估進行交易，較去年增加15%。我們的鐵礦石評估已連續超過10年成為運抵中國的海運細粒鐵礦石之主要實體市場定價參考，且仍以令人印象深刻的速度持續成長。

We understand the importance of reliable market benchmarks to the secular energy transition story, and we're positioning ourselves for long-term success. The chart on the right shows the cumulative number of new assessments we have launched and energy transition over the last 2 years. These include a new suite of Australian hydrogen prices covering one of the key producers of this future fuel as well as the methane performance certificate that we believe will be an integral component of low-carbon crude trading.

我們了解可靠的市場基準對於長期能源轉型敘事的重要性，並正為長期成功進行布局。右側圖表顯示我們在過去2年推出的新評估項目與能源轉型相關評估的累計數量。這些包括一套新的澳洲氫氣價格，涵蓋此未來燃料的關鍵生產國之一；以及我們認為將成為低碳原油交易不可或缺組成部分的甲烷績效證書。

Now turning to issuance. During the third quarter, global-rated issuance decreased 40% year-over-year. In the U.S., rated issuance in aggregate decreased 47%. European-rated issuance decreased 19%; and in Asia, rated issuance declined 47%. High yield was down by 80% year-over-year in both United States and Europe and was down nearly 100% in Asia.

接著談發行。第三季，全球評級債券發行量年減40%。在美國，整體評級發行量年減47%。歐洲評級發行量年減19%；而在亞洲，評級發行量年減47%。高收益債在美國與歐洲皆年減80%，在亞洲則幾乎年減100%。

Structured finance in Europe was the only positive regional category in the quarter, increasing 7% year-over-year. We've included additional details on the subcomponents of issuance by region in the slide deck. We continue to make significant progress in our sustainability products. ESG revenue increased nearly 40% year-over-year to nearly $50 million in the quarter. We saw continued innovation in our ESG indices and the market recognition of our strength.

歐洲的結構性金融是本季唯一呈現正成長的區域類別，年增7%。我們已在簡報投影片中納入各區域發行量子項目的更多細節。我們在永續產品方面持續取得顯著進展。ESG營收在本季年增近40%，達到接近5,000萬美元。我們看到ESG指數持續創新，市場也認可我們的實力。

We launched the S&P Net Zero 2050 Carbon Budget Indices, and we ended the quarter with ESG ETF AUM of $35 billion, an increase of 7% year-over-year in a down market. Within Market Intelligence, we launched enhanced physical risk exposure scores and financial impact data sets to support clients as they seek to understand and manage the physical and financial exposure to climate change.

我們推出了S&P Net Zero 2050 Carbon Budget Indices（標普淨零2050碳預算指數），並在本季結束時，ESG ETF資產管理規模（AUM）達350億美元，在市場下跌的情況下仍年增7%。在市場情報（Market Intelligence）方面，我們推出強化版的實體風險曝險評分與財務影響資料集，以支援客戶在理解與管理氣候變遷帶來的實體與財務曝險。

Our Ratings division continues to see success here as well, completing 13 ESG evaluations and 23 sustainable financing opinions in the quarter. One of the most important competitive advantages in our ESG efforts is the Corporate Sustainability Assessment, which is an annual comprehensive assessment completed in partnership with participating companies.

我們的評級（Ratings）事業部在此也持續取得成果，本季完成13項ESG評估以及23項永續融資意見。其中，我們ESG工作最重要的競爭優勢之一是企業永續評估（Corporate Sustainability Assessment），這是一項每年進行、並與參與公司合作完成的全面性評估。

The S&P Global brand and everything it stands for continues to drive growth in the number of companies seeking to partner with us in this assessment process. Year-to-date, we've seen more than 2,300 companies opt in, a more than 25% increase from the same time last year.

S&P Global品牌及其所代表的一切，持續推動尋求與我們合作參與此評估流程的公司數量成長。今年迄今，我們已看到超過2,300家公司選擇加入，較去年同期增加逾25%。

Now turning to the outlook for the remainder of the year. Beginning with our issuance forecast. Our Ratings Research team is expecting an approximately 19% decline in global market issuance, including both rated and unrated issuance for the full year. This compares to the previous forecast of down 16%. Importantly, our financial results and guidance are more closely tied to billed issuance, which can differ materially from market issuance as we described last quarter.

接著談今年剩餘期間的展望，先從我們的發行量預測開始。我們的評級研究團隊預期，全年全球市場發行量（包含有評級與無評級）將約下降19%。相較之下，先前預測為下降16%。重要的是，我們的財務結果與指引更緊密地連結於「計費發行量」（billed issuance），其可能與市場發行量有重大差異，正如我們在上季所說明。

Year-to-date, market issuances declined approximately 14%, while build issuances declined approximately 42%. Based on the trends we saw in September and October, we now expect billed issuance to be down approximately 45% to 50% for the full year. When we look to the broader macroeconomic environment for the rest of 2022, we continue to see further deterioration from what we expected in August. In addition to the downward trend in issuance, our expectations for GDP growth, inflation and the commodities markets have all lowered.

今年迄今，市場發行量約下降14%，而計費發行量約下降42%。根據我們在9月與10月看到的趨勢，我們現在預期全年計費發行量將約下降45%至50%。當我們檢視2022年剩餘期間更廣泛的總體經濟環境時，我們持續看到相較於8月預期的進一步惡化。除了發行量的下行趨勢外，我們對GDP成長、通膨以及大宗商品市場的預期也都下修。

With only 2 months left in 2022, we wanted to provide what will likely be the final update on some of the macroeconomic indicators we're using to help inform our financial guidance for the year. We'll not be discussing our expectations for 2023 on this call, but we will be closely monitoring both the internal and external indicators of our business over the coming months. And we'll plan to provide our initial 2023 outlook at the customary time when we report our fourth quarter results early next year.

在2022年僅剩2個月之際，我們希望就一些用來協助形成今年財務指引的總體經濟指標，提供可能是最後一次的更新。本次電話會議不會討論我們對2023年的預期，但未來幾個月我們將密切監測業務的內外部指標。我們也計畫在明年初公布第四季業績時，於慣例時間提供2023年的初步展望。

Before I turn the call over to Ewout, I want to thank the incredible people we have at S&P Global. Our people have executed well in a challenging environment this year and have delivered great value for our customers and the organization while managing a complex integration. I'm confident that we're well-positioned to drive long-term growth and create long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ewout to walk through financials and guidance. Ewout?

在我把電話交給Ewout之前，我想感謝S&P Global所有傑出的同仁。我們的團隊在今年充滿挑戰的環境中執行得非常出色，在管理複雜整合的同時，為客戶與組織創造了很大價值。我有信心我們已做好準備，能推動長期成長並為股東創造長期價值。接下來我把電話交給Ewout，請他說明財務與指引。Ewout？

Thank you, Doug. Doug has already discussed the headline financial results, and I would like to cover a few other items. As Doug mentioned, the adjusted financial metrics we will be discussing today refer to non-GAAP adjusted metrics for the current period and non-GAAP pro forma adjusted metrics in the year ago period, unless explicitly called out as GAAP. Adjusted results also exclude the contribution from divested businesses in all periods.

謝謝你，Doug。Doug已經談過主要的財務結果，我想再補充幾點。如Doug所提到，我們今天討論的調整後財務指標，除非明確標示為GAAP，否則係指本期的非GAAP調整後指標，以及去年同期的非GAAP備考（pro forma）調整後指標。各期的調整後結果亦排除已剝離業務的貢獻。

Adjusted corporate unallocated expenses improved from a year ago, driven by a combination of synergies and reduced incentive cost. Our net interest expense decreased 17% as we benefit from lower average rates due to refinancings following the merger. Adjusted effective tax rate was up modestly, but towards the low end of the guidance range we expect for the full year. As most are aware, we exclude the impact of certain items from our adjusted diluted EPS number. Among those items in the third quarter were approximately $108 million in merger-related expenses. The details of which can be found in the appendix.

調整後公司層級未分攤費用較去年改善，主要由協同效益與較低的獎酬成本共同帶動。我們的淨利息費用下降17%，受惠於併購後再融資帶來的較低平均利率。調整後有效稅率小幅上升，但仍接近我們對全年指引區間的低端。如各位所知，我們會自調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）中排除特定項目的影響。第三季其中一項為約1.08億美元的併購相關費用，細節可見附錄。

We generated adjusted free cash flow, excluding certain items, of $965 million. We remain committed to returning the majority of this cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Year-to-date, we have deployed $11 billion towards share repurchases, and we expect the final $1 billion of our previously announced ASR program to be completed by year-end.

我們產生了調整後自由現金流（排除特定項目）9.65億美元。我們仍致力於透過股利與庫藏股回購，將此現金流的大部分回饋給股東。今年迄今，我們已投入110億美元進行股票回購，並預期先前宣布的加速股票回購（ASR）計畫最後10億美元將於年底前完成。

We note that the U.S. dollar remained strong against many foreign currencies, and we've seen a corresponding impact on both our revenue and expenses. As a reminder, approximately 3/4 of our international revenue is invoiced in U.S. dollars, which provides some protection to revenue against FX volatility. In addition to the natural hedges that exist due to the global footprint of our people, we have a hedging program in place that further mitigates the ultimate impact on our earnings. For the third quarter, we saw a $0.03 favorable impact to EPS from foreign exchange and hedging programs.

我們注意到美元兌多數外幣仍維持強勢，並對我們的營收與費用造成相應影響。提醒各位，我們約3/4的國際營收以美元開立發票，這在一定程度上可保護營收免受匯率波動影響。除因全球人力布局而存在的自然避險外，我們亦設有避險計畫，以進一步降低對最終盈餘的影響。第三季，外匯與避險計畫對EPS帶來0.03美元的正面影響。

Turning to expenses. We are committed to disciplined expense management in this current environment. And similar to last quarter, we highlight the levers we continue to pull to protect margins where we can while still preserving our investments to drive future growth. Actions taken include pull forward in synergies, a reduction in incentive accruals, adjustments to the timing of certain investments and pausing select hiring and limiting consulting spend in some areas.

接著談費用。在目前環境下，我們致力於嚴謹的費用管理。與上季類似，我們強調持續運用各項槓桿，在可行之處保護利潤率，同時仍保留推動未來成長所需的投資。已採取的行動包括提前實現協同效益、降低獎酬提列、調整部分投資的時點、以及在部分領域暫停特定招募並限制顧問支出。

Through cost synergies and other management actions we have taken so far this year, we expect to generate more than $400 million in expense savings for 2022. Now I would like to provide an update on our synergy progress. In the third quarter, we achieved $165 million in cumulative cost synergies and our current annualized run rate is $311 million.

透過成本協同效益與我們今年迄今採取的其他管理行動，我們預期2022年可產生超過4億美元的費用節省。接下來我想更新我們的協同效益進度。第三季，我們已達成累計1.65億美元的成本協同效益，目前年化執行率為3.11億美元。

I'm pleased to report we continue to outperform our initial time line on both revenue and cost synergies year-to-date. The cumulative integration and cost to achieve synergies through the end of the third quarter is $641 million. Given the outperformance on the timing of our synergies, we now expect to achieve slightly more than the 35% to 40% of total cost synergies in 2022 that we were targeting previously.

我很高興報告，今年迄今我們在營收與成本協同效益兩方面都持續優於最初的時間表。截至第三季末，整合累計成本與達成協同效益所需成本合計為6.41億美元。鑑於協同效益時程表現優於預期，我們現在預期2022年可達成的總成本協同效益占比，將略高於先前目標的35%至40%。

Now let's turn to the division results and begin with Market Intelligence. Market Intelligence revenue increased 4% with strong growth in Data & Analytics, offset by slower growth in Desktop and flat growth in Enterprise Solutions. For this quarter, recurring revenue accounted for approximately 96% of Market Intelligence total revenue. Expenses were roughly flat this quarter with increases in compensation expense, cloud spend and outside services being offset by cost synergies and lower incentive compensation. Market Intelligence remains the biggest driver of cost synergies from the merger and the synergy outperformance we have seen year-to-date.

現在讓我們看各事業部表現，先從市場情報（Market Intelligence）開始。市場情報營收成長4%，其中資料與分析（Data & Analytics）強勁成長，但被桌面產品（Desktop）較慢成長與企業解決方案（Enterprise Solutions）持平所抵銷。本季，經常性收入約占市場情報總營收的96%。本季費用大致持平，薪酬費用、雲端支出與外部服務增加，則由成本協同效益與較低的獎酬支出所抵銷。市場情報仍是併購帶來成本協同效益的最大驅動來源，也是我們今年迄今所見協同效益超前的主要貢獻者。

Segment operating profit increased 13%, and the segment operating profit margin increased 260 basis points to 33.9%. On a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin was 30.9%. The OSTTRA joint venture that complements the operations of our Market Intelligence division contributed $19 million in adjusted operating profit to the company. As a reminder, because the JV is a 50% owned joint venture operating independent of the company, we recognized their results on an after-tax basis and do not include the financial results of OSTTRA in the Market Intelligence division.

部門營業利益成長13%，部門營業利益率上升260個基點至33.9%。以過去12個月（trailing 12-month）計算，調整後部門營業利益率為30.9%。補強我們市場情報事業部營運的OSTTRA合資企業，為公司貢獻1,900萬美元的調整後營業利益。提醒各位，由於該合資企業為公司持股50%且獨立營運，我們以稅後基礎認列其成果，並未將OSTTRA的財務結果納入市場情報事業部。

Looking across Market Intelligence, there was growth in most categories. And on a pro forma basis, Desktop revenue grew 3%, Data & Advisory Solutions revenue grew 7%, Enterprise Solutions revenue was flat and Credit & Risk Solutions revenue grew 7%. For Desktop, we saw slower growth this quarter, driven in part by the timing of certain revenue recognition items, and we expect desktop to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter.

放眼 Market Intelligence，大多數類別均呈現成長。以備考（pro forma）基礎計，Desktop 收入成長 3%，Data & Advisory Solutions 收入成長 7%，Enterprise Solutions 收入持平，Credit & Risk Solutions 收入成長 7%。就 Desktop 而言，本季我們看到成長放緩，部分原因在於某些收入認列項目的時點影響；我們預期 Desktop 將在第四季重新加速。

For Enterprise Solutions, the business line continues to see headwinds in several of our volume-driven products that rely on equity and debt capital markets activity under variable subscription terms. Excluding the impact of FX and these volume-driven products, growth across Market Intelligence would have been approximately 7% year-over-year. While we remain confident in the long-term growth of all these product lines, we expect deceleration in categories outside of desktop to persist in the fourth quarter.

就 Enterprise Solutions 而言，該業務線在我們若干以交易量驅動、且依賴股票與債券資本市場活動並採可變訂閱條款的產品上，仍持續面臨逆風。若排除匯率（FX）以及這些量能驅動產品的影響，Market Intelligence 整體年增幅原本約可達 7%。儘管我們仍對所有這些產品線的長期成長充滿信心，但我們預期除 Desktop 以外的類別在第四季仍將持續放緩。

Now turning to Ratings. Ratings continued to face difficult market conditions this quarter as issuance volumes remained muted with revenue decreasing 33% year-over-year. Transaction revenue decreased to 56% on the continued softness in issuance we highlighted earlier. Non-transaction revenue decreased 6% on a reported basis and 2% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to lower rating evaluation services and initial issuer credit ratings, partially offset by increases in CRISIL. ICR and RES revenue are historically correlated with the relative strength of the issuance environment and M&A activity, respectively, and the declines we are seeing here are purely indicative of those market conditions.

接著談 Ratings。本季 Ratings 仍面臨艱困的市場環境，因發行量持續低迷，收入年減 33%。交易型收入（Transaction revenue）因我們先前提到的發行疲弱而下降至 56%。非交易型收入（Non-transaction revenue）以報告基礎年減 6%，以固定匯率（constant currency）基礎年減 2%，主要因評等評估服務與初次發行人信用評等（initial issuer credit ratings）減少，部分被 CRISIL 的成長所抵銷。ICR 與 RES 收入歷來分別與發行環境的相對強弱及併購（M&A）活動相關；我們在此看到的下滑純粹反映上述市場狀況。

Expenses decreased 19%, primarily driven by disciplined expense management, including lower incentive expenses, partially offset by increased salary and fringe expenses. This resulted in a 41% decrease in segment operating profit and a 750 basis point decrease in segment operating profit margin to 55.9%. On a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin was 57.9%.

費用下降 19%，主要來自嚴謹的費用管理（包括較低的獎酬費用），部分被薪資與福利費用增加所抵銷。這使得部門營業利益下降 41%，部門營業利益率下降 750 個基點至 55.9%。以過去 12 個月（trailing 12-month）計，調整後部門營業利益率為 57.9%。

Now looking at Ratings revenue by its end markets. The largest contributors to the decrease in Ratings revenue were a 44% decrease in Corporates and a 31% decrease in Structured Finance, driven predominantly by structured credit. In addition, Financial Services decreased 20%, Governments decreased 33%, and the CRISIL and other category increased 9%.

接著按終端市場來看 Ratings 收入。Ratings 收入下滑的最大貢獻來源為 Corporates 下降 44% 與 Structured Finance 下降 31%，主要由結構性信用（structured credit）所驅動。此外，Financial Services 下降 20%，Governments 下降 33%，而 CRISIL 與其他類別成長 9%。

And now turning to Commodity Insights. Revenue increased 5%, driven by strong performance of subscription products, including those within Price Assessments and Energy & Resources Data & Insights lines. However, that growth was impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As noted on the slide, revenue related to Russia contributed $12 million in the third quarter last year and made no contribution in the third quarter this year. Excluding this impact, Commodity Insights would have grown approximately 8% in the third quarter.

接著談 Commodity Insights。收入成長 5%，主要由訂閱型產品的強勁表現帶動，包括 Price Assessments 與 Energy & Resources Data & Insights 產品線。然而，該成長受到俄烏衝突影響。如投影片所示，與俄羅斯相關的收入在去年第三季貢獻 1,200 萬美元，而今年第三季未有任何貢獻。若排除此影響，Commodity Insights 在第三季的成長約為 8%。

There's no change to the expected impact from this conflict. But as a reminder, on an annualized run rate basis, we expect Commodity Insights revenue and operating income to be lower by approximately $52 million and $51 million, respectively. For this quarter, recurring revenue contributed 91% of Commodity Insights revenues. Expenses increased 1%, primarily due to salary and fringe and an increase in T&E expense, partially offset by merger-related synergies, lower consulting spend and lower real estate costs.

對於該衝突的預期影響沒有變化。但提醒一下，以年化運行率（annualized run rate）基礎計，我們預期 Commodity Insights 的收入與營業利益將分別減少約 5,200 萬美元與 5,100 萬美元。本季經常性收入（recurring revenue）占 Commodity Insights 收入的 91%。費用增加 1%，主要因薪資與福利以及差旅與交際（T&E）費用增加，部分被併購相關綜效、較低的顧問支出與較低的不動產成本所抵銷。

Segment operating profit increased 9%, and the segment operating profit margin increased 190 basis points to 45.8%. The trailing 12-month adjusted segment operating profit margin was 43.8%. Looking across the Commodity Insights business categories. Price Assessments grew 8% compared to the prior year, driven by continued commercial momentum and strong subscription growth for market data offerings. Energy & Resources Data & Insights also grew 8% in the quarter, driven by strength in Gas, Power & Renewables and in Petrochemicals. Advisory and Transactional Services decreased 1% in the third quarter.

部門營業利益成長 9%，部門營業利益率上升 190 個基點至 45.8%。以過去 12 個月計，調整後部門營業利益率為 43.8%。再看 Commodity Insights 各業務類別：Price Assessments 較去年成長 8%，主要由持續的商業動能與市場數據產品的訂閱強勁成長所帶動。Energy & Resources Data & Insights 本季亦成長 8%，主要受 Gas、Power & Renewables 以及 Petrochemicals 的強勢表現驅動。Advisory and Transactional Services 在第三季下降 1%。

The Upstream business was down 2% compared to prior year, mainly driven by higher comps for Software and Analytics products offerings as well as the impact of Russia. Excluding that impact and the impact of FX, Upstream ACV growth would have been positive in the quarter. In our Mobility division, revenue increased 8% year-over-year, driven primarily by continued high retention rates and new business growth in CARFAX. For this quarter, recurring revenue contributed 78% of Mobility's total revenue. Expenses grew 5% year-over-year as we have yet to lap planned increases in headcounts, and we saw continued cloud expense growth, which were partially offset by lower data cost and favorable FX.

Upstream 業務較去年下降 2%，主要因 Software 與 Analytics 產品的比較基期較高，以及俄羅斯因素影響。若排除該影響與匯率（FX）影響，Upstream 的 ACV 成長在本季將為正。在我們的 Mobility 部門，收入年增 8%，主要由 CARFAX 持續的高留存率與新業務成長所帶動。本季經常性收入占 Mobility 總收入的 78%。費用年增 5%，因我們尚未跨越（lap）既定的人力編制增加計畫，且雲端費用持續成長；部分被較低的數據成本與有利匯率所抵銷。

This resulted in a 14% growth in adjusted operating profit and 200 basis points of margin expansion year-over-year. On a trailing 12-month basis, the adjusted segment operating profit margin was 40%. Dealer revenue increased 10% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for CARFAX as dealerships' profitability remain at elevated levels. Manufacturing grew 4% year-over-year, driven by strength in subscriptions and an uptick in the Recall business. Inventory shortfalls continue to temper growth as OEMs spend on marketing initiatives powered by Mobility products remains muted.

因此，調整後營業利益年增 14%，且利潤率年增擴張 200 個基點。以過去 12 個月計，調整後部門營業利益率為 40%。Dealer 收入年增 10%，主要因經銷商獲利能力仍處高檔，對 CARFAX 的需求強勁。Manufacturing 年增 4%，主要由訂閱表現強勁以及 Recall 業務回升所帶動。庫存短缺仍抑制成長，因 OEM 在由 Mobility 產品驅動的行銷計畫上的支出仍偏低迷。

Financials and Other increased 9%, primarily driven by continued strength in our insurance underwriting products and new business. S&P Dow Jones Indices revenue increased 3% year-over-year with strong margin expansion despite lower assets under management. For the third quarter, recurring revenue contributed 84% of the total for indices.

Financials and Other 成長 9%，主要由我們保險核保產品的持續強勁表現與新業務帶動。S&P Dow Jones Indices 收入年增 3%，儘管資產管理規模（AUM）下降，仍實現強勁的利潤率擴張。第三季經常性收入占指數業務總收入的 84%。

During the quarter, expenses were roughly flat as strategic investments and higher information services costs were offset primarily by lower incentives and other expenses. Segment operating profit increased 5%, and the segment operating profit margin increased 100 basis points to 70.3%. On a trailing 12-month basis, the adjusted segment operating profit margin was 68.8%. Asset-linked fees were down 5%, primarily driven by lower AUM in ETFs. Exchange-rated derivative revenue increased 37% on increased trading volumes across key contracts, including a more than 60% increase in S&P 500 Index Options volume. Data & Custom Subscriptions increased 10%, driven by new business activities.

本季費用大致持平，因策略性投資與較高的資訊服務成本，主要被較低的獎酬與其他費用所抵銷。部門營業利益成長 5%，部門營業利益率上升 100 個基點至 70.3%。以過去 12 個月計，調整後部門營業利益率為 68.8%。資產連結費用（asset-linked fees）下降 5%，主要由 ETF 的 AUM 較低所致。交易所評級衍生品收入（exchange-rated derivative revenue）因主要合約交易量增加而成長 37%，其中 S&P 500 指數選擇權交易量增加逾 60%。Data & Custom Subscriptions 成長 10%，由新業務活動帶動。

Over the past year, market depreciation totaled $472 billion. ETF AUM net inflows were $194 billion. This resulted in quarter-ending ETF AUM of $2.3 trillion, which is an 11% decrease compared to 1 year ago. Our ETF revenue is based on average AUM, which decreased 4% year-over-year. As a reminder, revenue tends to lag changes in asset prices. Given the declines across equity markets so far in the back half of this year, we continue to expect softness in asset-linked fees as we close out 2022.

過去一年，市場貶值合計 4,720 億美元。ETF AUM 淨流入為 1,940 億美元。因此，季末 ETF AUM 為 2.3 兆美元，較一年前下降 11%。我們的 ETF 收入以平均 AUM 為基礎，而平均 AUM 年減 4%。提醒一下，收入通常會落後資產價格變動。鑑於今年下半年迄今股市普遍下跌，我們仍預期在 2022 年結束前，資產連結費用將持續疲弱。

Engineering Solutions revenue declined 8% in the quarter, driven primarily by the negative impact of the timing of the Boiler Pressure Vessel Code, or BPVC, which was last released in August of 2021. The BPVC contributed approximately $1 million in revenue this quarter compared to approximately $8 million in the year ago period. For this quarter, 94% of Engineering Solutions revenues were classified as recurring. Adjusted expenses decreased 7% due to favorable impact on BPVC royalties. On a trailing 12-month basis, the adjusted segment operating profit margin was 19.1%.

Engineering Solutions 收入本季下降 8%，主要由 Boiler Pressure Vessel Code（BPVC，鍋爐與壓力容器規範）發布時點的負面影響所致；BPVC 上次發布是在 2021 年 8 月。BPVC 本季貢獻收入約 100 萬美元，而去年同期約為 800 萬美元。本季 Engineering Solutions 收入中有 94% 被歸類為經常性收入。調整後費用下降 7%，因 BPVC 權利金帶來有利影響。以過去 12 個月計，調整後部門營業利益率為 19.1%。

Non-subscription revenue in Engineering Solutions decreased 63% year-over-year for the reasons I mentioned on the previous slide, while subscription revenue increased 3% over the same period. Now moving to our guidance. This slide depicts our new GAAP guidance. And this slide depicts our updated 2022 adjusted pro forma guidance. Due to the continued softening of the issuance environment, we now expect revenue to decrease mid-single digits compared to our prior guidance. Some of that impact is offset by the outperformance in indices.

Engineering Solutions 的非訂閱收入（non-subscription revenue）因我在上一張投影片提到的原因而年減 63%，而訂閱收入在同期間成長 3%。接著談我們的財測（guidance）。本投影片呈現我們新的 GAAP 財測；下一張投影片呈現我們更新後的 2022 年調整後備考（adjusted pro forma）財測。由於發行環境持續轉弱，我們目前預期收入將較先前財測下降中個位數百分比（mid-single digits）。其中部分影響由指數業務的優於預期表現所抵銷。

The net impact of our lower ratings revenue expectations, combined with the cost measures and capital allocation measures we have outlined today result in our slightly lower margin outlook and a new adjusted EPS range of $11 to $11.15. This margin outlook reflects our continued expectation for approximately 180 basis points of margin expansion outside of our Ratings business.

我們對 Ratings 收入較低的預期，再加上我們今天所說明的成本措施與資本配置措施，淨影響使我們的利潤率展望略為下修，並將調整後 EPS 區間更新為 11.00 至 11.15 美元。此利潤率展望反映我們仍預期在 Ratings 業務以外，利潤率約可擴張 180 個基點。

Interest expense is expected in the range of $345 million to $355 million, slightly lower than our previous guidance due to higher interest on our cash deposits and positive impact from currency hedges. We're also reducing our outlook for capital expenditures to $115 million due to intentional delays in real estate investments. Adjusted free cash flow, excluding certain items, is now expected to be approximately $4 billion.

利息費用預期介於 3.45 億至 3.55 億美元，較先前財測略低，原因在於我們現金存款利息較高，以及貨幣避險帶來的正面影響。我們也因刻意延後不動產投資，而將資本支出展望下修至 1.15 億美元。調整後自由現金流（排除特定項目）目前預期約為 40 億美元。

The following slide illustrates our guidance by division. Based on this past quarter's performance, we're updating our expectations for adjusted revenue growth and adjusted operating profit margin for Ratings and Indices. The guidance ranges for our other divisions are unchanged.

下一張投影片說明我們按事業部門的財測。基於本季表現，我們正在更新對 Ratings 與 Indices 的調整後收入成長與調整後營業利益率的預期。我們其他事業部門的財測區間維持不變。

In closing, despite the geopolitical tensions and a challenging macroeconomic environment weighing on the market, our portfolio of strong businesses continue to prove resilient. Furthermore, I'm pleased with the progress our teams have made since the closing of the merger earlier this year. We look forward to providing you with a deep dive into our businesses and the longer-term outlook of the company at our Investor Day on December 1.

最後，儘管地緣政治緊張局勢以及具挑戰性的總體經濟環境對市場造成壓力，我們由優質企業組成的投資組合仍持續展現韌性。此外，我也很高興看到我們的團隊自今年稍早完成合併交割以來所取得的進展。我們期待在 12 月 1 日的投資人日，為各位深入解析我們的業務以及公司較長期的展望。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to Mark for your questions.

接下來，我把電話交回給 Mark 來回答各位的提問。

Thank you, Ewout. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we will now take our first question.

謝謝你，Ewout。（接線員指示）接線員，我們現在開始接第一個問題。

Our first question comes from Owen Lau from Oppenheimer.

第一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Owen Lau。

For the MI Credit & Risk Solutions and Data & Advisory Solutions, could you please unpack a little bit on the products and services driving that growth in current backdrop? Are they new customers? Because based on my understanding, many of these products are subscription-based. I just want to get a better sense of how you can further monetize it and drive that growth.

針對 MI Credit & Risk Solutions 以及 Data & Advisory Solutions，能否請你們再多拆解一下，在目前的環境下，是哪些產品與服務在推動成長？是新客戶帶來的嗎？因為依我理解，這些產品很多是訂閱制。我想更清楚了解你們如何進一步變現並推動成長。

Owen, this is Doug, and thanks for joining us today. Let me start, first of all, by mentioning that within Market Intelligence, Credit & Risk Solutions has always been a long-term outperformer. It's an area that we see very high demand from the markets for information about credit risk and other types of risk, especially in this market.

Owen，我是 Doug，謝謝你今天加入。我先從一點開始說明：在 Market Intelligence 之中，Credit & Risk Solutions 一直是長期表現優於平均的業務。我們看到市場對信用風險及其他類型風險資訊的需求非常高，尤其是在目前這樣的市場環境。

As you know, the core products in this area are the basic products that are providing information from the Ratings business. So things like RatingsDirect, RatingsXpress. We also have a suite of products like Credit Analytics. And we do see a lot of growth now related to credit climate analytics. This is an area where we're seeing increased interest and demand, especially from financial institutions, especially large global banks.

如你所知，這個領域的核心產品，是提供來自 Ratings 業務資訊的基礎產品，例如 RatingsDirect、RatingsXpress。我們也有像 Credit Analytics 這樣的一整套產品。現在我們也看到與信用氣候分析（credit climate analytics）相關的成長很明顯；這是我們觀察到興趣與需求上升的領域，特別是來自金融機構，尤其是大型全球銀行。

In addition, we're seeing some other growth from areas like traded market risks. Some names of, I'll say, XVA, CCR. We have a VAR product, et cetera. And then we have some additional buy-side risk opportunities for clients to look at for market risk and stress scenarios. So if you look at the entire suite of products, we're able to provide the market information at the time when they really want to understand risk.

此外，我們也看到一些來自交易市場風險等領域的成長，例如我會說像 XVA、CCR。我們有 VAR 產品等等。然後我們也有一些額外的買方（buy-side）風險機會，讓客戶用於市場風險與壓力情境分析。因此，如果你看我們整體的產品組合，我們能在市場真正想要理解風險的時點，提供所需的市場資訊。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then my follow-up is somehow related to the Ratings business. Could you please talk about your view on how private credit market might have impacted S&P Global Rating business? And how S&P can provide services in this area?

了解，這很有幫助。我的追問與 Ratings 業務有點相關：能否談談你們如何看待私募信貸市場（private credit market）可能對 S&P Global Ratings 業務造成的影響？以及 S&P 在這個領域可以提供哪些服務？

Yes. Thanks. On the private markets, as we saw earlier this year, there was a retreat of institutional investors and retail investors from credit funds. So there was really no liquidity at the beginning part of this year. It was a combination of people that were risk averse and also looking at the shift between fixed and floating. There were a lot of moves in interest rates.

好的，謝謝。就私募市場而言，如同我們今年稍早看到的，機構投資人與零售投資人從信貸基金撤出，因此在今年年初那段時間幾乎沒有流動性。這是風險趨避，以及固定利率與浮動利率之間配置轉移的綜合結果；利率出現了很多變動。

So we saw a retreat from the traditional loan funds and high-risk investors that left the markets. That left an opportunity for the private credit funds that had traditionally been focusing on mid-market credit. So SME credit was their expertise. Many of them also had started moving into the higher quality, higher level of risk and large-cap companies. So they were there to fill the gap. The gap was filled by private credit at the beginning of the year. And we know that they've also been able to take on loans with a faster, also with a higher risk level. And so we've seen that increase during the year.

因此我們看到傳統貸款基金與高風險投資人撤離市場。這為私募信貸基金帶來機會；這些基金過去主要聚焦於中型市場信貸，因此中小企業（SME）信貸是他們的專長。許多基金也開始轉向更高品質、更高層級的風險以及大型企業（large-cap companies）。因此他們用來填補缺口。年初的缺口由私募信貸填補。我們也知道，他們能以更快的速度承作貸款，同時也承擔更高的風險水準，因此我們在今年看到這方面的增加。

Now how do we think about that? First of all, we look at that as an opportunity for us going forward. We believe that the private credit funds will be looking over time to have some sort of risk, transformation, whether it's related to fixed floating or it has to do with securitization or syndication.

那我們怎麼看待這件事？首先，我們把它視為未來對我們而言的一個機會。我們相信，隨著時間推移，私募信貸基金會尋求某種風險轉換（risk transformation），不論是與固定/浮動利率相關，或是與證券化（securitization）或聯貸/銀團（syndication）相關。

We think at that time, they're going to be wanting some Estimate services, potentially Ratings services. In addition, we've identified private credit as one of our most important strategic growth drivers. We already have a base of private credit businesses that were part of IHS Markit. And related to that, we have a strong starting point with products like iLEVEL that provides information to portfolio managers.

我們認為到那個時候，他們會需要一些 Estimate 服務，並可能需要 Ratings 服務。此外，我們已將私募信貸視為我們最重要的策略性成長驅動因素之一。我們已經擁有一個私募信貸業務基礎，這些是 IHS Markit 的一部分。基於此，我們也有很好的起點，例如 iLEVEL 這類產品，可為投資組合經理提供資訊。

So we've identified private credit as a growth area for us for Ratings as well as for Market Intelligence going forward. And we're watching the trend very carefully. We know at some point, investors will come back to the markets, and we'll see a broadening of the market again. But we've been watching this very closely and are actually interested in this as a growth area for us.

因此，我們已將私募信貸視為未來 Ratings 以及 Market Intelligence 的成長領域。我們非常密切地觀察這個趨勢。我們知道在某個時間點，投資人會回到市場，市場也會再次擴大。但我們一直非常密切地關注，並且確實對此作為我們的成長領域很感興趣。

Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I wanted to drill down further on the Ratings and the issuance guidance. I believe my back of math -- envelope math suggests that you're assuming a similar growth in fourth quarter as third quarter for transaction revenues. I just wanted to see if I'm in the right ballpark, and I was just wondering if you could provide any color on what your expectations are for issuance for the rest of the year. Are you assuming any rebound? And how are the conversations with the issuers coming along?

我想更深入了解 Ratings 以及發行量（issuance）指引。我用簡單的粗算（back-of-the-envelope math）推估，你們似乎假設第四季的交易收入成長與第三季類似。我想確認我是否在合理範圍內，也想請你們提供一些對今年剩餘時間發行量的看法：你們是否假設會有反彈？以及與發行人的對話進展如何？

Ashish, if you look at the outlook, as you know, we are not really providing quarterly guidance. So we're not really speaking about the quarterly outlook for either our financial results or some of the input variables like issuance. But of course, if you look at the numbers that we put out today, then if you would do a backwards calculation, you would assume that the most recent trends we're seeing in terms of issuance is what we expect to continue also in the fourth quarter.

Ashish，如你所知，我們其實不提供季度指引，因此不會就季度展望談論我們的財務結果或像發行量這類輸入變數的季度走勢。不過，若你看我們今天公布的數字，並做反推計算，你會假設我們近期看到的發行趨勢，將會延續到第四季。

So definitely, the main reason why we took our guidance down. I would say that's the only reason because overall, the impact on our results from a top line perspective is about $200 million reduction in revenue outlook for the Ratings business, so about $0.50 of EPS. And then there were a couple of smaller things. But net-net, I think that's the main driver of why the EPS outlook is down for the full year.

所以，我們下調指引的主要原因非常明確。我會說這就是唯一原因。因為從營收端來看，對我們結果的影響大約是 Ratings 業務營收展望下修約 2 億美元，約等於 EPS 減少 0.50 美元。然後還有幾個較小的因素。但整體而言，我認為這是全年 EPS 展望下修的主要驅動因素。

That's very helpful color. And maybe just switching gears on Mobility, pretty strong momentum there, despite what we are seeing in the auto lending space or in the auto space. And so I was just wondering as we start to see the demand for auto slow down, how should we think about the growth in the business? And is there some countercyclicality as well here in the business?

這些說明很有幫助。接著換個話題談 Mobility：在汽車放貸或汽車市場目前的情況下，你們那邊動能仍然很強。我想問，當我們開始看到汽車需求放緩時，應該如何看待該業務的成長？另外，這個業務是否也具有某種逆景氣循環（countercyclicality）的特性？

Yes, Ashish, thank you for your questions. When it comes to Mobility, we see that there's a very interesting shift going on over the last couple of years. As you know, when the market started slowing down from the pandemic and the supply chain interruptions, we saw the used auto market really start expanding and we benefited from the CARFAX products and the CARFAX suite of products, especially at the dealer level.

好的，Ashish，謝謝你的問題。就 Mobility 而言，我們看到過去幾年出現一個非常有趣的轉變。如你所知，當市場因疫情與供應鏈中斷而開始放緩時，二手車市場確實開始擴張，而我們受惠於 CARFAX 產品以及 CARFAX 的產品組合，特別是在經銷商層級。

We know that there's some countercyclicality as you say, it is as the market returns to new autos coming into the market and inventories rise, that we will benefit from products and services to the OEMs and as well as the dealers that are going to start having a different type of relationship again with the manufacturers and suppliers.

如你所說，我們知道這裡存在一定的逆景氣循環特性：當市場回到新車供給增加、庫存上升時，我們將受惠於提供給 OEM 以及經銷商的產品與服務；屆時他們將再次以不同的方式與製造商與供應商建立關係。

So we're watching right now very closely 3 big trends in the automotive market: what's happening with the used car market, where we have a strong position; what's happening with the OEMs and the supply chain for the new automobiles. They've been in historic lows over the last 2 years. So we expect that's going to start going up.

因此，我們目前非常密切地觀察汽車市場的三大趨勢：二手車市場的變化（我們在此具有強勢地位）；OEM 與新車供應鏈的情況。過去兩年新車供給處於歷史低點，因此我們預期這將開始回升。

And then there's also transformation taking place in the industry as more and more vehicles start to become electric-based with the drivetrain as opposed to internal combustion. So a lot of trends, which are all play to our advantage because we have data analytics and research products that we can serve all of the users in these markets.

此外，隨著越來越多車輛轉向以電動傳動系統（drivetrain）為主、而非內燃機，產業也正在發生轉型。這些趨勢都對我們有利，因為我們擁有資料分析與研究產品，能服務這些市場中的所有使用者。

Our next question comes from Alex Kramm from UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Alex Kramm。

I understand that you don't really want to comment much on 2023 quite yet. I guess, we'll wait until December. Just on the issuance side, however, your own research group yesterday put out not only the 2022 update but also the 2023 initial look, which I think calls -- if I got this right, for 2% issuance growth and 10% growth, in particular, for the Corporate side, which I think is the most important for you.

我理解你們目前還不太想評論 2023 年，我想我們會等到 12 月。不過就發行量而言，你們自家的研究團隊昨天不只發布了 2022 年更新，也發布了 2023 年初步展望；如果我沒看錯，預估發行量成長 2%，其中公司債（Corporate）部分成長 10%，而我認為這對你們最重要。

So since this is out there, I'm just wondering how we should be thinking about that forecast? And what's kind of items you would think about as you think about how that flows into billed issuance and revenues? I know it's early, but given that your own company has an issue outlook out there already, figured it's relevant.

既然這份資料已經公開，我想請問我們應該如何看待這個預測？以及當你們思考它如何反映到計費發行量（billed issuance）與營收時，會考量哪些因素？我知道現在還早，但既然你們公司已經有發行展望在外面了，我覺得這個問題很相關。

Yes. Thanks, Alex. As you say, we produce a report. And what we're looking at right now is understanding what are going to be the main factors driving us towards the end of the year. We've given you those in that report as well. That showed that issuance was expected to be down by 19% for the full year, which compared to 16% from our last report. As you know, we will wait to provide guidance for 2023 until February when we provide our full issuance report as well as our guidance for the year.

是的。謝謝，Alex。正如你所說，我們會製作一份報告。而我們目前正在做的是了解，到了年底，哪些將會是推動我們的主要因素。我們也在那份報告中把這些提供給你。報告顯示，全年發行量預期將下滑19%，相較於我們上一份報告中的16%。如你所知，我們會等到2月，在提供完整的發行量報告以及年度指引時，才會提供2023年的指引。

What you saw from the report from our team, our credit research team, is product research and it's not necessarily geared directly to how we're going to find billed issuance. As you recall, last quarter, we explained very clearly what is included in billed issuance. We take the -- what would be expectations for issuance overall. We add in leveraged loans. And then we extract some debt areas like unrated categories such as MTNs, most of the domestic debt from China.

你從我們團隊、也就是我們信用研究團隊的報告中看到的是產品研究，並不一定是直接針對我們如何界定「計費發行量」（billed issuance）。如你所記得，上個季度我們非常清楚地說明了計費發行量包含哪些內容。我們會先採用——對整體發行量的預期；再加上槓桿貸款；然後再剔除某些債務領域，例如未評級類別（如MTN），以及來自中國的大部分境內債。

And we also exclude the international public finance from those calculations to come up with our expectations. But maybe more importantly to your question, we're always in the market. As you saw, we talked about having had 3,000 interactions with the markets during the quarter. We are all over the market to understand what are the factors that are going on that are driving issuance and will drive issuance. So we do provide our guidance going forward.

同時，我們也會把國際公共融資（international public finance）從這些計算中排除，以得出我們的預期。不過，或許對你的問題更重要的是，我們一直都在市場中。如你所見，我們談到在本季度與市場有3,000次互動。我們深入市場，去了解正在發生、並將推動發行的各項因素。因此，我們確實會提供未來的指引。

But we're looking at the issuance forecast, GDP growth, macroeconomic factors like inflation, interest rates. We're looking at spreads, which have been quite high over the last few quarters. Maturity schedules, which are quite encouraging going forward into 2023, '24, '25, et cetera; M&A pipeline. So as you know, at the time we come out with our guidance, we will have looked at all of these factors. But maybe the most important point is that we're not just standing around and waiting. We're very actively engaged with the markets.

但我們會看發行量預測、GDP成長、通膨與利率等總體經濟因素。我們也會看利差（spreads），過去幾個季度一直相當高；到期時程（maturity schedules），展望2023、2024、2025等其實相當令人鼓舞；以及併購（M&A）案源。正如你所知，當我們發布指引時，我們會把所有這些因素都納入考量。但或許最重要的一點是，我們不是站著等。我們非常積極地與市場互動。

All right. Fair enough. Then maybe just going to Market Intelligence. I think since the deal was announced or closed, I think we have had this expectation that more and more of the -- I guess, subscriptions on the IHS Markit side will be moving onto our S&P kind of enterprise umbrella. So just wondering if that's still true. If there's a time line for moving more and more that legacy Markit subscription under that S&P umbrella. And yes, how far we're along, if you're able to pick up any sort of incremental pricing as you do that? Or how should we think about that transition over time, if that is a plan?

好的。合理。那我再轉到Market Intelligence。我想自從交易宣布或完成以來，我們一直預期——我猜，IHS Markit那邊的訂閱會越來越多地移到我們S&P的企業平台（enterprise umbrella）之下。所以想確認這是否仍然為真。是否有一個時間表，把更多既有的Markit訂閱移到S&P的平台之下？以及，是的，如果你能分享的話，我們目前進展到哪裡？在你們這麼做的同時，是否能取得任何增量定價？或者如果這確實是計畫，我們應該如何看待這個隨時間推進的轉換？

Yes, Alex, it's very, very early for us to talk about it. But what I'll tell you is going back to the last comment I made that we're incredibly linked into the markets right now. We have all of our commercial teams are out speaking with our customers. What we're finding is that there's a lot of opportunities for us to start with cross-sell.

是的，Alex，現在談這個對我們來說還非常、非常早。但我可以告訴你，回到我剛才的最後一個評論：我們現在與市場的連結非常緊密。我們所有的商務團隊都在外面與客戶交流。我們看到的是，有很多機會可以先從交叉銷售（cross-sell）開始。

So our initial early wins have been with cross-sell, selling different products across -- within the divisions and sometimes across the divisions. But we are hearing opportunities for moving data into the Desktop, finding some products for Data and Research and Analytics fit together. So to your point, it's a vision that we have, but it's really early for us to give you any kind of detailed analytics about it.

因此，我們初期的早期勝利是在交叉銷售上——在各事業部內、以及有時跨事業部銷售不同產品。但我們也聽到一些機會，例如把資料移到Desktop，把Data and Research與Analytics的一些產品做更好的整合。所以如你所說，這是我們的願景，但現在要給你任何詳細的分析還太早。

Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Toni Kaplan。

I wanted to ask about Ratings margins. They were down sequentially, but they were still really resilient just given the environment and especially relative to one of your big competitors. Just wanted to ask you if you could talk about some drivers that enabled you to flex cost outside of incentive comp?

我想問關於Ratings的利潤率。它們環比下降，但在目前環境下仍然非常有韌性，尤其是相較於你們的一家主要競爭對手。想請你談談，有哪些驅動因素讓你們能在獎勵性薪酬（incentive comp）之外彈性調整成本？

Toni, you're right. We are quite pleased with the overall expense discipline of the company in the third quarter. You've heard us announce last quarter that we're taking additional actions to deal with the macro environment and we're actually really pleased how that is playing out, and you may continue to see that kind of results from us going forward across the company. And of course, we take the benefit also from the cost synergies that we can implement and accelerate during this period.

Toni，你說得對。我們對公司第三季整體的費用紀律相當滿意。你們也聽到我們在上季宣布，為了因應總體環境，我們採取了額外行動；我們也非常高興看到這些措施的成效，未來你們可能會持續看到我們在全公司呈現這類結果。當然，我們也受益於在此期間可以落實並加速的成本協同效益（cost synergies）。

So if you look specifically at the Ratings business, it is a mix. On the one hand, we continue to make sure that we invest in future growth, making sure that we stay competitive from a compensation perspective. We want to preserve the capacity we have on the analytical side. But on the other hand, there are also discretionary costs that we are bringing down.

如果你特別看Ratings業務，這是一個組合。一方面，我們持續確保投資於未來成長，並確保在薪酬方面保持競爭力。我們希望保留分析端的產能。但另一方面，我們也在降低一些可自由裁量的成本（discretionary costs）。

There are allocated costs that are benefiting from the synergies that we are realizing across the company, and then also incentive compensation is down year-over-year. So it's actually a balance of different elements that go into the mix. But definitely, as you have seen in the past, we're always focused in terms of trying to preserve margins in our businesses as much as possible, particularly in more challenging macro environments.

另外，還有一些分攤成本（allocated costs）受益於我們在全公司實現的協同效益；同時，獎勵性薪酬也較去年同期下降。所以這其實是多個要素的平衡組合。但可以肯定的是，如你過去所見，我們一直專注於盡可能維持各項業務的利潤率，特別是在更具挑戰的總體環境中。

Great. And this is a little bit of a broad question and you could take it where you want. But just -- could you talk about any changes in customer behavior over the last 6 months, and this could be elongation of the sales cycle in some places? Or maybe it's just different products that have been more in demand? Just wanted to get a sense of sort of changes in the businesses over the last recent history.

很好。這是一個比較廣泛的問題，你可以從你想談的角度回答。不過——你能否談談過去6個月客戶行為的任何變化？例如某些地方的銷售週期拉長？或者只是某些產品需求更高？我想了解一下，近期這段時間各項業務出現的變化。

Yes. Toni, thanks for that question. And as you know, the markets are going through a lot of uncertainty and turmoil. We've never lived through a period where you have an end of a pandemic, a war, inflation, interest rates going up, all sorts of different impacts. I mentioned earlier on the mobility discussion what kind of impact that's had on the markets overall.

是的。Toni，謝謝你的問題。如你所知，市場正經歷大量不確定性與動盪。我們從未經歷過這樣的時期：疫情結束、戰爭、通膨、利率上升，以及各種不同的衝擊。我先前在談到流動性（mobility）時也提到，這對整體市場造成了什麼影響。

We've seen this interest in talking about risk. It's a topic, which has increased dramatically. When we meet with customers, they want to talk about the external environment. They want the expertise of S&P Global that comes from our entire company to understand what's happening with Risk, with markets, with Credit as well as Equities, Commodities. So we start with very broad dialogues.

我們看到大家對「談風險」的興趣。這個主題大幅升溫。當我們與客戶會面時，他們想談外部環境。他們希望借助S&P Global來自全公司的專業能力，去理解風險、市場、信用，以及股票、商品等正在發生什麼。因此，我們通常從非常宏觀的對話開始。

And then we dig deeper into some specific topics. One that comes up in almost every single conversation we have is energy transition, climate and sustainability. That's a really common discussion. It's increasing in terms of how much time we spend on it. And another one is Data & Analytics. How are customers thinking about their own application of AI, Data & Analytics. They want to learn from us how we're managing S&P Global, but they also want to learn how they can be deploying new types of products and services using more AI.

接著我們會更深入一些特定主題。幾乎在我們每一次對話中都會出現的一個主題是能源轉型、氣候與永續。這是非常常見的討論，而且我們花在上面的時間正在增加。另一個主題是Data & Analytics：客戶如何思考他們自身對AI、Data & Analytics的應用。他們想從我們這裡了解我們如何管理S&P Global，但也想了解他們如何運用更多AI來部署新型態的產品與服務。

But overall, we have not seen any kind of initial pushback on slowing down of sales cycle. Clearly, there are some markets, as I mentioned, the Ratings market, there's not a lot of issuance right now, but we've stayed engaged with the market. But maybe net-net, the big topics we spent a lot of time on the macroeconomic environment, sustainability as well as AI and data. Those are big conversations we have in almost every customer interaction.

但整體而言，我們尚未看到任何一開始就對銷售週期放緩的反彈。當然，有些市場——如我提到的Ratings市場——目前發行量不多，但我們仍持續與市場保持互動。不過總結來說，我們花很多時間在總體經濟環境、永續，以及AI與資料上。這些都是我們幾乎在每一次客戶互動中都會談到的重要議題。

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自BMO Capital Markets的Jeff Silber。

I wanted to start with a Ratings-related question. I asked your competitor, your large competitor the same question. I'm just wondering about your thoughts. What are you looking for in terms of signs of an uptick in that market, green shoots, et cetera? What should we be focusing on?

我想先從一個與Ratings相關的問題開始。我也對你們的競爭對手、你們那家大型競爭對手問了同樣的問題。我只是想了解你們的看法。你們在尋找哪些跡象來判斷該市場回升、出現復甦萌芽（green shoots）等等？我們應該關注什麼？

There's a few things that I'm focusing on myself, and I know that if we had our Ratings team specifically on the call, they might tell me that there's others that are looking at beyond that. But clearly, there's a set of factors, M&A activity is one for me, which is -- it's kind of an informal indicator. M&A activity has been quite weak recently.

我自己會關注幾件事；我也知道，如果我們的Ratings團隊專門在這通電話上，他們可能會告訴我還有其他他們會看的指標。但很明顯，有一組因素。對我而言，併購（M&A）活動是一個——算是非正式的指標。近期併購活動相當疲弱。

Typical M&A has a set of transactions come along with it, may be a bridge loan, which turns into a deal loan, which turns into a bond or rated loan, et cetera. M&A activity has been weak. IPO is another one. The reason I look at those myself is that those are just their activity, which denotes confidence in the markets that people are willing to invest. But then as you recall, we're having conversations with issuers. We mentioned 3,000 that we had last quarter with issuers.

典型的併購通常會伴隨一系列交易，可能先有過橋貸款（bridge loan），再變成交易貸款（deal loan），再變成債券或評級貸款等。併購活動一直偏弱。IPO也是另一個。我之所以自己會看這些，是因為它們代表市場活動，反映出市場信心——人們願意投資。但接著，如你所記得，我們也在與發行人對話。我們提到上季與發行人有3,000次互動。

And we see a lot of interest in investing people that have plans for investing in new markets for innovation, for investing in venture capital, ways that they can see new shoots in their own businesses. So we're watching when is it that people actually pull the trigger. And maybe the takeaway is it's not, if it's when. We know that there's a lot of people out there that are ready to go. They have great ideas, but the question is when will those conditions of interest rates, of stability, of market confidence, when will those be back when people start going back to the market?

我們也看到市場對投資有很高的興趣，許多人計畫投資於創新型的新市場、投資於創投（Venture Capital），以便在自身業務中看到新的成長萌芽。因此，我們正在觀察人們究竟何時會真正扣下扳機（採取行動）。或許重點在於：不是「會不會」，而是「何時」。我們知道外面有很多人已經準備就緒，他們有很棒的想法，但問題是：當利率、穩定性、市場信心等條件回到位時，大家何時才會重新回到市場？

Finally, we do look at the maturity schedules. And we know that there's a point starting towards the middle of next year that there will be maturity schedules are going to start kicking in and we're going to watch that carefully as well. We'll there be pull forward from that, but that's another factor we're going to be watching.

最後，我們也會檢視到期（maturity）時程。我們知道從明年年中左右開始，將會有一個時間點，屆時到期時程會開始陸續到來，我們也會非常謹慎地觀察。我們會看是否會因此出現提前（pull forward）的情況，但這也是我們將持續關注的另一個因素。

Okay. That's really helpful. And I can shift over to the Mobility line of business. Margins, at least, by our record, looks like it hit an all-time high, even I think compared to IHS' business, and I know it's a different segment right now. But can you talk about what's going on there? And should we expect margins to continue to go higher from here?

好的，這非常有幫助。我想把話題轉到 Mobility 這條業務線。至少就我們的紀錄來看，利潤率似乎創下歷史新高，甚至我認為也高於 IHS 的業務，當然我知道現在是不同的分部。但你能談談那邊發生了什麼嗎？我們是否應該預期利潤率從這裡開始還會繼續走高？

Jeff, we are always aspiring to improve margins across all of our businesses. So mobility is not an exception to that. That is because of the fact that we're focused on operating leverage. We always like to see the top line growing faster than the expense line. And of course, aided then by strategic investments to aim for future growth as well.

Jeff，我們一向以提升所有業務的利潤率為目標，所以 Mobility 也不例外。這是因為我們專注於營運槓桿。我們一直希望營收端的成長速度快於費用端。當然，也會透過策略性投資來支持未來成長。

What we are seeing in the Mobility business is really a positive overall environment that helps and is very supportive for the business, particularly with low inventory levels. We see margins high for the OEMs and for the dealers and that is driving high retention rates. The offset of that is that we see lower spend for sales and marketing products that we are having, and that's because of the same factor that the inventory levels are low.

我們在 Mobility 業務看到的是整體環境相當正面，對業務很有利，特別是在庫存水位偏低的情況下。我們看到 OEM 與經銷商的利潤率都很高，這也帶動了較高的留存率。相對應的影響是，我們看到在銷售與行銷產品上的支出較低，而這同樣是因為庫存水位偏低所致。

So you could say there's a kind of an inherent hedge in that business. If the market starts to turn, if we see that the demand supply starts to shift in the car market, then we would also see those different revenue streams moving in opposite directions. But we think that with that, we're insulated from our overall financial impact, and therefore, we can continue to focus on margin expansion as well.

因此你可以說，這個業務本身有某種內建的避險效果。如果市場開始轉向、如果我們看到汽車市場的供需開始移動，那麼我們也會看到不同的營收來源朝相反方向變動。但我們認為在這種情況下，我們的整體財務影響會受到一定程度的隔離，因此也能持續專注於利潤率擴張。

And as Doug mentioned before, we also are taking a benefit from used car markets, and that has been proven to be quite resilient through the cycle. So yes, overall, we are really happy with the growth of mobility, the margins, and we would see that continuing going forward.

另外，如 Doug 先前提到的，我們也受惠於二手車市場，而事實證明二手車市場在景氣循環中相當具韌性。所以是的，整體而言，我們對 Mobility 的成長與利潤率都非常滿意，並且預期未來會持續延續。

Our next question comes from George Tong from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 George Tong。

Billed issuance was down 40% in the third quarter. You're assuming full year billed issuance declines of 45% to 50% will be worse than the third quarter decline. What are you seeing that suggests 4Q could potentially be worse than 3Q, in terms of billed issuance? Any color there would be helpful.

第三季的計費發行量（billed issuance）下滑了 40%。你們假設全年計費發行量下滑 45% 到 50%，會比第三季的降幅更差。你們看到什麼跡象顯示第四季在計費發行量方面可能比第三季更糟？如果能提供一些補充說明會很有幫助。

Yes. First of all, let me just give a little bit more color on that. As you know, at the last forecast, we saw that issuance of the nonfinancials or Corporates would be down about 30%. We now see it down about 35%. And then we see that in Financial Services, they had expected to be down 10%, now down about $14 or so.

好的。首先我先補充一些背景。如你所知，在上一次的預測中，我們看到非金融企業或一般企業（Corporates）的發行量大約會下滑 30%。我們現在看到下滑約 35%。而在金融服務方面，原本預期下滑 10%，現在下滑約 14% 左右。

When you look at the total billed issuance, and we mentioned that it was going to -- year-to-date was down 42% and we're expecting it to be down now 45%. This is going to be based on what we see in the pipeline. As I mentioned in the answer I gave a few minutes ago, we see that the market itself is quite hesitant. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

當你看整體計費發行量時，我們提到年初至今下滑 42%，而我們現在預期會下滑 45%。這將取決於我們在管線（pipeline）中看到的情況。正如我幾分鐘前回答時提到的，我們看到市場本身相當猶豫。不是「會不會」，而是「何時」。

And we see that during the fourth quarter, what we've picked up from investment banks from issuers directly that right now, they're still waiting to see what the conditions are going to be around economic growth, interest rates and spreads. So it's just based on our forecast, not our issuance forecast. This is based on our market forecast based on people that are meeting with issuers and meeting with investors that the current conditions are still such that people are holding back before they go to market.

我們也看到在第四季，從投資銀行以及發行人直接回饋的資訊顯示，他們目前仍在觀望經濟成長、利率與利差等條件會如何發展。因此這是基於我們的預測，而不是我們自己的發行量預測。這是基於我們的市場預測：透過與發行人及投資人會面的市場人士所反映的情況，當前條件仍使得大家在進入市場前選擇按兵不動。

Very helpful. And related to that, we're likely going to be in a higher interest rate environment for some time relative to pre-COVID. What are your thoughts on whether corporates may enter a phase of balance sheet delevering and implications for issuance performance?

非常有幫助。延伸這個問題，我們很可能在一段時間內都會處於相對於疫情前更高的利率環境。你怎麼看企業是否可能進入資產負債表去槓桿（delevering）的階段？這對發行表現會有什麼影響？

Yes, that's a theoretical question, but let me go back and look at history. I know that many of us have been in the market for many years, remember when interest rates were 4%; 3%, 4%, 5% base rates and the markets were incredibly active. I think that we'll settle into a range once there's stability and we understand what the longer-term rates are going to be, what longer-term inflation and growth are going to be.

是的，這是一個理論性的問題，但我先回到歷史來看。我知道我們很多人在市場上待了很多年，還記得當利率在 4%、3%、4%、5% 的基準利率水準時，市場仍然非常活躍。我認為一旦局勢穩定、我們理解長期利率會落在什麼水準，以及長期通膨與成長會如何發展，我們就會進入一個區間（range）。

Companies and financial institutions will go back to the markets because they want to invest and grow. We know that organizations like to grow and to grow, you deploy capital. We also look at the trend around the globe where more and more markets are shifting from being banking markets to capital markets. Right now, in Europe, there's a couple of shifts going on in the support programs that the ECB was providing to the banks.

企業與金融機構會回到市場，因為他們想投資並成長。我們知道組織都希望成長，而要成長就需要配置資本。我們也觀察到全球趨勢：越來越多市場正從以銀行為主的市場轉向以資本市場為主的市場。以歐洲為例，目前歐洲央行（ECB）先前提供給銀行的支持計畫正在出現一些轉變。

This was very easy, very low-cost funding. They're starting to wean the banks off of those, and they're going to the capital markets to raise more capital as well as to deploy more capital into bonds instead of into loans. So we see this trend of capital marketization around the globe, and we think that's another trend in the long run that will drive a lot of positive tailwinds for the Ratings business.

那是一種非常容易、成本非常低的資金來源。他們正開始讓銀行逐步脫離（wean off）這些支持，銀行也會轉向資本市場籌集更多資本，並且把更多資本配置到債券而非貸款上。因此我們看到全球資本市場化（capital marketization）的趨勢；我們認為從長期來看，這也是一個將為評級（Ratings）業務帶來許多正面順風的趨勢。

Our next question comes from Craig Huber from Huber Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

My first question on pricing. Can you just update us on a like-for-like basis? What would you say the average price increase is this year? And how does it vary across the segments? Is it 3% to 4%? Or is a little bit higher?

我第一個問題關於定價。你能否以同口徑（like-for-like）更新一下？你會說今年平均的價格調升幅度是多少？各分部之間差異如何？是 3% 到 4%？還是略高一些？

Craig, well, we are always very careful when we speak about pricing in isolation because, first and foremost, we start with customer value. What do we deliver for our customers. And the good news is that based on the very high value of our products and services, we should be able to pass on cost/price increases and to achieve more favorable contract terms and fees over time at renewal.

Craig，我們在單獨談定價時一向非常謹慎，因為首先最重要的是客戶價值：我們為客戶交付了什麼。好消息是，基於我們產品與服務的高價值，我們應該能夠轉嫁成本／價格上升，並在續約時隨時間推進取得更有利的合約條款與費率。

Of course, it depends on facts and circumstances of each and every product, each and every customer situation and of the situation of each and every of our businesses. But that is our overall philosophy. I can't give you specifically a number for across the company, how much price increases are up compared to previous periods.

當然，這取決於每一項產品、每一位客戶情境，以及我們各項業務的具體事實與情況。但這是我們整體的理念。我無法具體給出一個全公司層面的數字，說明相較於過去期間，價格調升幅度到底增加了多少。

But there are definitely areas where we are looking at price increases or have already implemented price increases that have been higher than in the past. But again, that all has started with that there is a good balance with the overall customer value that we are delivering.

但確實有一些領域，我們正在推動價格調升，或已經實施的調升幅度高於以往。不過再次強調，這一切都始於我們所交付的整體客戶價值之間的良好平衡。

My second question, please, on Market Intelligence. Can you just talk a little further about the health of your clients, the sales pipeline there a little bit further. I mean your numbers speak for themselves. How do you feel about the outlook for Market Intelligence right now?

我第二個問題關於 Market Intelligence。你能否再多談一些你們客戶的健康狀況、那邊的銷售管線？我的意思是，你們的數字已經說明了一切。你們目前對 Market Intelligence 的展望感覺如何？

Yes. We still feel very, very positive, and we're optimistic about the Market Intelligence pipeline. You read every once so about some of the financial institutions here and there that might be slowing down some of their growth, but we're not seeing that in terms of negotiations with clients.

是的，我們仍然感到非常、非常正面，並且對 Market Intelligence 的管線保持樂觀。你偶爾會看到一些報導，提到某些金融機構可能在這裡那裡放慢了部分成長，但我們在與客戶的談判中並沒有看到這種情況。

But very importantly, one of the propositions of the merger between IHS Markit and S&P Global was to cross-sell the excellent products from both groups to the client bases on the other. We believe that we have a strong diversification of our client base. And as an example, in the IHS Markit businesses, their financial services business was mostly focused on financial services.

但非常重要的是，IHS Markit 與 S&P Global 合併的一項主張（proposition）就是：把兩個集團的優秀產品交叉銷售（cross-sell）給彼此的客戶群。我們相信我們的客戶基礎具有強勁的多元化。舉例來說，在 IHS Markit 的業務中，他們的金融服務業務過去主要聚焦在金融服務客戶。

We're finding that a lot of the opportunities and a lot of our initial cross-sell has been selling IHS Markit products to corporate clients. We think that there is a lot of upside and a lot of opportunity. We are out in the market actively talking with our customers about ways we can bring value through new products, new services through data, et cetera. So right now, we're not seeing any pullback or any kind of major slowdown of our sales activities or pushback from clients.

我們發現，許多機會以及我們初期的交叉銷售，都是把 IHS Markit 的產品賣給企業客戶。我們認為仍有很大的上行空間與機會。我們也積極在市場上與客戶溝通，討論我們如何透過新產品、新服務、數據等方式帶來價值。因此目前我們沒有看到任何縮手，或我們的銷售活動出現重大放緩，或客戶端的明顯反彈。

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的 Manav Patnaik。

Maybe just specific to Market Intelligence and the Desktop side. Can you just help us understand the accounting issue, I guess, that will help reaccelerate the growth? And then just thinking out a little bit longer in there, how do you expect the trajectory of the growth there to play? Because -- I mean, similar to yourselves, I imagine the sell side and other customers will be tightening budgets as well.

也許就市場情報（Market Intelligence）與桌面端（Desktop）這一塊更具體地問一下。你能否幫我們理解一下我想是會有助於讓成長重新加速的會計問題？另外再把時間拉長一點來看，你預期那邊的成長軌跡會如何發展？因為——我的意思是，和你們類似，我想賣方（sell side）以及其他客戶也會收緊預算。

Manav, we recognized that the third quarter revenue growth of the Desktop was below our normal growth potential. But you have to look at it from a particular perspective that there is always some timing of revenue recognition of certain contracts. That was particularly impacting this quarter, but we expect the Desktop growth to normalize again in the fourth quarter.

Manav，我們注意到第三季 Desktop 的營收成長低於我們正常的成長潛力。但你必須從一個特定角度來看：某些合約的收入認列時點總是會有一些時間差。本季特別受到這個因素影響，但我們預期第四季 Desktop 的成長會再次回到正常水準。

Also for Market Intelligence, in general, if you take out the volume effect of the capital markets business, and also FX, then the overall growth for the full quarter was north of 7%, and we believe that's more indicative of the normal growth opportunity for Market Intelligence as well.

另外，就 Market Intelligence 而言，整體來看，如果把資本市場業務的量能影響以及外匯（FX）因素排除，整個季度的整體成長率在 7% 以上，我們認為這也更能反映 Market Intelligence 正常的成長機會。

Okay. Got it. And then can I just ask on the non-transaction side of the Ratings business? It's obviously down 2%, I think, you said, ex-FX. But how long will that keep, I guess, slowly declining? Like when do we lap the Ratings evaluation services, tough comps or whatever it is that's driving that down?

好的，了解。那我再問一下評級（Ratings）業務的非交易（non-transaction）部分？很明顯是下滑 2%，我想你說的是在排除 FX 之後。但這種緩慢下滑大概會持續多久？例如我們什麼時候會度過評級評估服務（Ratings evaluation services）的高基期（tough comps）或不管是什麼因素在拖累它？

Well, Manav, that is directly correlated with the overall economic environment, capital markets activity, debt issuance, M&A environment. And we have, of course, seen that the beginning of this year was still relatively strong, and it started to deteriorate somewhere from March onwards. Non-transaction revenue is usually quite stable as a revenue stream.

嗯，Manav，這與整體經濟環境、資本市場活動、債務發行、以及併購（M&A）環境是直接相關的。當然，我們看到今年年初仍相對強勁，但大約從 3 月開始就逐步惡化。非交易收入通常作為一條收入來源是相當穩定的。

We have 2 particular areas that are mostly sensitive for the more general macro environment. This is initial credit ratings. We don't see a lot of new issuers coming to the market. And then rating evaluation services, this has a correlation with the M&A market. These are issuers that are thinking about IPOs, spin-offs and so on, want to have some kind of an insight in terms of implications for their ratings.

我們有兩個特定領域對更廣泛的總體環境最為敏感。第一是初始信用評級（initial credit ratings）：我們沒有看到很多新的發行人進入市場。第二是評級評估服務（rating evaluation services）：這與併購市場有相關性。這些是正在考慮 IPO、分拆（spin-offs）等的發行人，希望了解其評級可能受到的影響。

So obviously, those are revenue streams that will come back once the markets start to turn. The more stable elements in nontransaction are around surveillance, around frequent issuer programs. And then most notably, I want to point out that CRISIL is doing very well and is supporting the nontransaction revenue in that category.

所以很明顯，這些收入來源會在市場開始回溫時回來。非交易中較穩定的部分則包括監測（surveillance）、以及常態性發行人方案（frequent issuer programs）。另外我特別想指出，CRISIL 表現非常好，正在支撐該類別中的非交易收入。

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Jeff Meuler。

I hear you that there's some inherent hedges in the Mobility business, but I think the used car business is a decent amount larger than the new car market for you. So if the market, I guess, shifts back from a mix perspective and some of the profit pools for use target hit. I'm just wondering if there's a net benefit or a net detriment to you? And I recognize CARFAX has good structural growth, historically resilient. So could you just give us any more detail on what product lines the competitive wins and new customer growth was coming in or any more detail on CARFAX's innovation that's driving the growth, given that the core report is fairly well penetrated.

我理解你提到在 Mobility 業務中存在一些內在的對沖，但我認為你們的二手車業務規模比新車市場要大不少。所以如果市場從組合（mix）角度回轉，且二手車的部分獲利池（profit pools）受到衝擊，我想知道對你們而言是淨受益還是淨不利？我也知道 CARFAX 具有良好的結構性成長，歷來也相當具韌性。所以你能否再多提供一些細節：競爭性勝出（competitive wins）與新客戶成長主要來自哪些產品線？或是再多談一些 CARFAX 的創新如何驅動成長，畢竟核心報告產品的滲透率已經相當高。

Jeff, you're absolutely right that the used car market is a significant component of the overall revenue stream for the mobility business. And the good news there is that it has been a very resilient market through the cycles. So we're not overly concerned about if the cycle in the car market start to turn that, that will have a material impact.

Jeff，你說得完全正確：二手車市場是 Mobility 業務整體收入來源中的重要組成。好消息是，二手車市場在景氣循環中一直非常有韌性。因此我們不會過度擔心汽車市場循環開始轉向會造成重大影響。

And as I mentioned before, we have other revenue streams actually that we expect to pick up if the equilibrium in the car market start to change, particularly about our sales and marketing products where we have seen relatively lower growth in the more recent past. The Mobility business in general is a phenomenal business. There's a lot of innovation, a lot of new product developments, a lot of good support for our customers.

而且如我先前提到的，如果汽車市場的均衡開始改變，我們其實還有其他收入來源預期會回升，特別是我們的銷售與行銷產品（sales and marketing products），在較近期我們看到其成長相對較低。Mobility 業務整體而言是一個非常出色的業務：有大量創新、許多新產品開發，也為客戶提供很好的支援。

CARFAX is really a gem from my perspective in terms of growth and in terms of innovation and new business activity, very close to the customers, a lot of new business launches and new product launches. So I think this business is in a very good position, and we would expect -- also if the car markets start to turn and go in a different direction, that we see continued good performance from this segment.

以我的角度來看，CARFAX 在成長、創新與新業務活動方面真的是一顆寶石：非常貼近客戶，有很多新業務上線與新產品推出。所以我認為這個業務處於非常好的位置；我們也預期——即便汽車市場開始轉向、朝不同方向發展——這個部門仍會持續有良好表現。

Okay. And then, Doug, you answered the deleveraging question. Can you also give us the historical view of like how much issuance was there in a falling rate environment of bonds being issued that was refinancing debt that wasn't coming due the next, say, 3, 4 years but bonds that had significant duration remaining on them where there was issuance to get the interest expense savings from a falling rate environment. Just I guess on the theoretical that we might not have that type of activity for a while, if you could help me understand roughly if that was meaningful in the past or not.

好的。接著，Doug，你回答了去槓桿（deleveraging）問題。你也能否提供一個歷史角度：在利率下行環境中，有多少債券發行其實是在為尚未在未來 3、4 年到期的債務進行再融資（refinancing），也就是那些仍有相當久期（duration）剩餘、但因利率下行而發行新債以節省利息費用（interest expense savings）的情況？我想從理論上看，如果我們可能一段時間都不會有那種活動，你能否幫我理解一下過去這是否有顯著影響？

Yes. Basically, this is a question about pull forward. And we saw in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic, there was what we felt now was structural pull forward. It was a combination of low rates, but probably more importantly, if you are a CFO of any organization, you were not being criticized for having ample liquidity during what people didn't understand was the pandemic as we went into it.

是的。基本上，這是在問「提前拉動」（pull forward）。我們在 2020 與 2021 年疫情期間看到我們現在認為是結構性的提前拉動。那是低利率的組合，但更重要的可能是：如果你是任何組織的 CFO，在人們尚未理解疫情將如何發展的情況下，持有充足流動性並不會受到批評。

So we did see a lot of structural pull forward during that period. But historically, I think the treasurers and CFOs of organizations are quite thoughtful and looking at their overall funding strategies. And so the funding is not -- when people look at their balance sheets, it's not only just looking at what they have on what their costs are. But the opportunities that organizations have now are much more complex than they used to be.

所以那段期間我們確實看到大量結構性的提前拉動。但從歷史上看，我認為企業的財務主管（treasurers）與 CFO 都相當審慎，會從整體融資策略來思考。因此融資並不是——當人們看資產負債表時——只看成本是多少；而是企業如今面臨的機會比過去複雜得多。

Securitizations, looking at how they're going to use a maturity transformation, what they do in terms of derivatives. So yes, we do see the balance sheets. We do see that there was pull forward into '20 and 2021, but we know the maturities are coming now. And we think that the sort of tools that corporations have to -- and banks have to manage their risk and their liquidity have really changed a lot in the last 10 or 15 years.

像是資產證券化（securitizations）、思考如何進行期限轉換（maturity transformation）、以及在衍生性商品（derivatives）方面的操作。因此，是的，我們確實看到資產負債表，也看到在 2020 與 2021 年有提前拉動，但我們知道到期（maturities）現在正在到來。我們認為企業與銀行用來管理風險與流動性的工具，在過去 10 到 15 年已經有很大改變。

So it's hard to go back and compare to history, but we do know what happened in the last few years, where we did see pull forward, but the upcoming maturity schedule, which starts in the second half of 2023 going forward. In a sense, it's kind of what was all the issuance that came after the financial crisis, in 2013, '14, '15. Just think about that huge boom of issuance that took place, that's going to start maturing next year. It was a 7-year, 10-year paper. We see a lot of that will start maturing and that we know that, that's going to be in the queue very soon.

所以很難回頭與歷史做直接比較，但我們知道過去幾年發生了什麼：我們確實看到提前拉動；但接下來的到期時程（maturity schedule）將從 2023 年下半年開始往後展開。某種意義上，這有點像金融危機後在 2013、2014、2015 年那一波巨量發行：想想那次發行潮，將在明年開始到期。那是 7 年期、10 年期的債券。我們看到其中很多將開始到期，而我們也知道這些很快就會排進隊列。

Our next question comes from Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Faiza Alwy。

First, I just wanted to ask about the Commodity business. You mentioned climate transition. So it sounds like there are some underlying drivers that are sustainable. I'm curious if you could talk about the cyclical aspects of the business and maybe areas where you're running into tougher comps. And just how sustainable you think the overall growth rate is there?

首先，我想問一下大宗商品（Commodity）業務。你提到了氣候轉型（climate transition），所以聽起來有一些可持續的底層驅動因素。我想了解你能否談談這項業務的循環性（cyclical）面向，以及可能在哪些領域你們正面臨較艱難的比較基期（tougher comps）。另外，你認為那邊整體成長率有多可持續？

Yes. Let me start with giving you an overall perspective on the Commodity Insights business and how it's doing in the current environment, and then I hand it over to Doug more for the energy transition and climate part. So if you look at the overall macro environment, it's very supportive for the Commodity Insight business at this moment.

好的。讓我先從 Commodity Insights 業務的整體視角，以及它在當前環境中的表現開始談起，然後再把能源轉型與氣候的部分更多交給 Doug。若你看整體總體環境，目前對 Commodity Insights 業務非常有利。

Definitely, where commodity prices are today is benefiting most of our customers. And therefore, we're seeing also, I would say, based on the very attractive proposition of the combined businesses that we have now brought together under the Commodity Insights segment. We're delivering a lot of new opportunities to our customers. And therefore, we have seen really one of the best sales momentums in this business.

毫無疑問，大宗商品價格目前的水準正在讓我們的大多數客戶受益。因此我們也看到——我會說——基於我們現在在 Commodity Insights 部門下整合在一起的合併業務所提供的非常有吸引力的價值主張，我們正在為客戶帶來許多新機會。因此，我們在這項業務上看到了非常強勁的銷售動能。

If I look at actual sales levels, this will probably one of the very best years for the last maybe a decade or so. So very positive trends that we're seeing that is helping Data and Insights, that is helping Price Assessments. The Global Trading Services business was a little lower this quarter. The main reason there is that we're lapping more difficult comps. But generally, we also see elevated hedging activity on commodity prices, and we're also benefiting from that as well.

如果我看實際銷售水準，這可能會是過去大約十年左右最好的年份之一。所以我們看到非常正向的趨勢，正在帶動 Data and Insights，也在帶動 Price Assessments。Global Trading Services 業務本季稍微低一些，主要原因是我們正面臨較艱難的比較基期（laping more difficult comps）。但整體而言，我們也看到大宗商品價格的避險活動（hedging activity）仍處於高位，我們也正從中受益。

And then if you look at the Upstream business, there, we have seen a turnaround. That was a business that for many years was in a more difficult period. But clearly, our customers are healthier there as well. We see larger CapEx budgets for those customers, and that is helping that business to grow. And we said in our prepared remarks that if you take out the effect of Russia, on a constant currency basis, actually the subscription book of business in the Upstream business was growing during the quarter. So overall, very favorable macro environment for Commodity Insights, and that is clearly helping the business this quarter and also in the next couple of quarters.

接著如果你看上游業務，我們確實看到了扭轉。那是一個多年來處於較艱難時期的業務。但很明顯，我們在那裡的客戶也更健康。我們看到這些客戶的資本支出（CapEx）預算更大，這正在幫助該業務成長。我們在事先準備的發言中也提到，如果剔除俄羅斯的影響、以固定匯率基礎來看，實際上上游業務的訂閱業務簿在本季是成長的。因此整體而言，對於 Commodity Insights 來說，宏觀環境非常有利，這也明顯在本季以及接下來幾季幫助了業務表現。

Ewout, I just want to add 2 points. The first is that all of us know that energy transition is on everyone's mind, whether it's a corporation or government, regulator, financial institution. And as I mentioned earlier, almost every conversation we have talks about this. And where else do you want to go to find about -- learn about energy and energy transition? It's Commodity Insights of S&P Global. We have the expertise.

Ewout，我只想補充兩點。第一點是，我們都知道能源轉型是每個人心中的重點，不論是企業、政府、監管機構或金融機構。正如我先前提到的，我們幾乎每一次對話都會談到這件事。那麼你還能去哪裡了解——學習能源與能源轉型？就是 S&P Global 的 Commodity Insights。我們具備專業能力。

We have the experts that can talk about current markets, transition markets, and we're finding an incredible amount of engagement. We have conferences. It's one of the areas that Commodity Insights excels at. And we see very high demand for people to participate in those conferences and we're now back in person and the attendance is above the charts.

我們有能夠談論當前市場與轉型市場的專家，而我們也看到令人難以置信的高度互動。我們有各類會議，這是 Commodity Insights 特別擅長的領域之一。我們看到人們參與這些會議的需求非常高，而且我們現在已回到線下，出席人數高得驚人。

But the second point I want to make is that we're launching new products all the time. Just in the last quarter, we launched some new products that were related to energy transition and new ways to find information about markets. As an example, there's -- in the tanker market, we talked earlier in my -- we had one of our points on our slide showed the low sulfur fuel oil market, which we -- I remember on an earnings call about 3 years ago talking about when we launched that and now it's become a benchmark in the market.

但我想提出的第二點是，我們一直在推出新產品。就在上一季，我們推出了一些與能源轉型相關的新產品，以及新的市場資訊取得方式。舉例來說，在油輪市場方面，我先前在我的——我們投影片上的其中一點提到低硫燃料油市場；我記得大約 3 年前在財報電話會議上談到我們推出它的時候，而現在它已成為市場上的一個基準。

But in addition, there's things like the carbon accounted tanker rate price assessments, there's interest around the world for understanding freight emissions, and what would be under the EU emissions trading system. You're going to need to have much more information for every single tanker and what is its carbon output, and we will have a product for that.

此外，還有像是「碳核算」油輪運價價格評估等產品；全球對於理解運輸排放的興趣正在升溫，以及在歐盟排放交易體系（EU ETS）之下會是什麼情況。你將需要針對每一艘油輪取得更多資訊，包括其碳排放量，而我們會提供相應的產品。

As an example, there's a whole information that's needed in Brazil and India and Turkey on Energy Certificates in emerging markets. And then finally, we have some examples. Recently, as you know, in the United States, there was the new Climate Bill, which was issued by the United States by the Congress. And we've done very special research which is really industry-leading about the Clean Energy procurement and what that's going to mean for industry. So when it comes to energy and energy transition, where are the place you want to go.

再舉例來說，在新興市場中，巴西、印度與土耳其在能源憑證（Energy Certificates）方面需要一整套資訊。最後，我們也有一些例子。近期如你所知，在美國，國會推出了新的氣候法案（Climate Bill）。我們做了非常特別、且確實是業界領先的研究，聚焦於潔淨能源採購以及這將對產業意味著什麼。因此談到能源與能源轉型，你想去的地方是哪裡。

Great. That's all very helpful. Just as a follow-up. Ewout, on Market Intelligence. I think you had -- the margin performance was really strong. And I'm curious if -- is that the area where you're maybe getting the most synergies? Or just give us a little bit more color on the margin performance, whether it's mix-related, and how we should think about that going forward.

很好。這些都非常有幫助。我再追問一下。Ewout，關於 Market Intelligence，我認為——你們的利潤率表現非常強勁。我很好奇，這是否是你們可能獲得最多協同效益的領域？或者請再多提供一些關於利潤率表現的背景，例如是否與組合（mix）有關，以及我們未來應該如何看待。

Faiza, yes, we're seeing the largest benefit from cost synergies and revenue synergies in the Market Intelligence division. That's because it's the largest division. It's also the largest combination of different businesses that we're bringing together. And also based on the size of that division, it will also benefit, of course, from a large part of the synergies that we're realizing in the corporate center and the allocation of those costs down to the divisions.

Faiza，是的，我們在 Market Intelligence 事業部看到最大的成本協同與營收協同效益。原因是它是最大的事業部；同時也是我們正在整合在一起的不同業務組合最多的部門。此外，基於該事業部的規模，它當然也會受益於我們在公司中心端實現的相當大一部分協同效益，以及將這些成本分攤到各事業部所帶來的效益。

What you see is, in general, that we continue to invest in Market Intelligence for future growth. So you see new product launches continuing strategic investments in new areas and initiatives. That was already touching on private credit, private markets, ESG investments we're having there as well. We're having expansion still continuing in China, in the marketplace and many different areas that we are continuing to invest as well as cloud expenses.

你所看到的是，整體而言，我們仍持續投資 Market Intelligence 以支持未來成長。因此你會看到新產品持續推出，並在新領域與各項計畫上進行策略性投資。這已經觸及到私募信貸、私募市場，以及我們在 ESG 方面的投資。我們也仍在中國持續擴張，在市場與許多不同領域持續投入，同時也包括雲端相關費用。

We're also continuing on our cloud journey and Market Intelligence is continuing to invest there as well. But then the opposite factors there are some of the expense reductions, the expense discipline and the synergies and the combination of all of that led to the significant margin expansion in Market Intelligence.

我們也持續推進雲端轉型旅程，Market Intelligence 也持續在這方面投資。但相對地，還有一些費用削減、費用紀律、協同效益與整合等因素；這些因素綜合作用，帶來了 Market Intelligence 顯著的利潤率擴張。

Our next question comes from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。

This is Hans Hoffman filling in for Stephanie. Could you just comment a bit on what you're seeing across your European revenue base and how that region did relative to your expectations, either by segment or overall?

我是 Hans Hoffman，代替 Stephanie 提問。你能否稍微評論一下你們在歐洲營收基礎上所看到的情況，以及該地區的表現相對於你們的預期如何，不論是按事業部或整體來看？

Yes, overall, not so much of a different trend we are seeing in Europe compared to other parts of the world. I understand the background of the question because definitely, the economic outlook in Europe is, of course, quite difficult. Given the inflation levels, given of course, the close proximity to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But overall, from a customer dynamics perspective, overall in terms of commercial activity, we're not seeing a significant difference compared to North America or Asia.

是的，整體而言，我們在歐洲看到的趨勢與世界其他地區並沒有太大不同。我理解這個問題的背景，因為歐洲的經濟前景確實相當艱難，考量到通膨水準，以及當然，與俄烏衝突的地理接近性。但整體來看，從客戶動態、商業活動的角度，我們並未看到與北美或亞洲相比有顯著差異。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just on the revenue synergy side, I guess where have you seen the most success so far and then sort of where do you kind of see the most opportunity?

了解。這很有幫助。接著就營收協同效益而言，我想問你們目前在哪些方面看到最多成功，然後你們又在哪些方面看到最大的機會？

Yes. Most success so far, we see in our largest divisions that we're bringing together, Market Intelligence, Commodity Insights and the Index business. It's mostly cross-sell at this moment, which was as expected because cross-sell is the introduction of one product group to existing customers and making sure that we can sell new activities there.

是的。到目前為止，我們看到最多成功的是我們正在整合的最大幾個事業部：Market Intelligence、Commodity Insights 以及指數（Index）業務。目前主要是交叉銷售（cross-sell），這也符合預期，因為交叉銷售就是把某一產品群介紹給既有客戶，並確保我們能在那裡銷售新的服務與活動。

For example, in Market Intelligence, we had a nice sale of KYC, KY3P product to an existing customer that was for more a customer from the legacy as global site where we could sell a product from the legacy IHS Markit side. So just as an example, so we see -- continue to see good cross-sell.

例如，在 Market Intelligence，我們把 KYC、KY3P 產品成功賣給了一位既有客戶；該客戶更偏向於原先 legacy S&P Global 這一側，而我們得以銷售來自 legacy IHS Markit 這一側的產品。這只是其中一個例子，因此我們看到——交叉銷售持續有不錯的進展。

At the same time, we're investing in new product development, in system development that will help them with that growth wave going forward. So it's still early, I have to say around revenue synergies, but we are clearly ahead compared to our original expectations.

同時，我們也在投資新產品開發與系統開發，這將在未來的成長浪潮中幫助他們。因此就營收協同而言，我必須說現在仍屬早期，但我們明顯比原先的預期更超前。

Our next question comes from Russell Quelch from Redburn.

下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Russell Quelch。

I just wanted to talk about capital allocation priorities. You still got about $2 billion on cash on the balance sheet and you're on course to generate around $5 billion of free cash flow in '23, I believe, consensus. Just wondered where you look to do further M&A? Or do you have enough integrations on your hand such that you can look to return perhaps north of 100% of free cash flow again in '23?

我想談談資本配置的優先順序。你們資產負債表上仍有大約 20 億美元現金，而且我相信市場共識預期你們在 2023 年將產生約 50 億美元自由現金流。想請問你們接下來會在哪些方面尋求進一步的併購（M&A）？或者你們手上的整合工作已經夠多，因此在 2023 年是否可能再次把回饋股東的比例提高到自由現金流的 100% 以上？

Overall, no change with respect to our capital philosophy, capital management targets. We think consistency and reliability there is the most important, particularly in this environment. You have seen us continuing with the $12 billion ASR, even despite that we have seen some impact of the current environment on the rating issuance levels we are able to execute on our plans this year.

整體而言，我們的資本理念與資本管理目標沒有改變。我們認為一致性與可靠性最重要，尤其是在這樣的環境下。你已經看到我們持續推進 120 億美元的加速股票回購（ASR）；即使我們看到當前環境對評級發行量帶來一些影響，我們仍能執行今年的計畫。

And you may expect the same from us over the next couple of years. So at least, 85% of return of capital to our shareholders, a combination of dividends and share buybacks. Dividend payout ratio between 20% and 30%. And M&A, the focus is really on small tuck-in and bolt-on, where we see that we can add a nice capability to some of our core strategic focus areas. But nothing large because we first, of course, need to focus on the integration of the large merger and organically building out our businesses. So no changes at all, and we think that is actually the right approach.

而你也可以預期未來幾年我們會維持同樣做法。因此，至少將 85% 的資本回饋給股東，透過股利與股票回購的組合；股利配發率在 20% 到 30% 之間。至於併購（M&A），重點確實是小型的補強式（tuck-in）與加掛式（bolt-on）交易，在我們的核心策略聚焦領域中加入一項不錯的能力。但不會做大型交易，因為我們首先當然需要專注於大型合併的整合，以及以有機方式擴展我們的業務。因此完全沒有改變，我們也認為這其實是正確的做法。

Okay. And then just one housekeeping question, I guess. Given the earlier comment on being able to achieve the lower-than-average rates due to the refinancing of the IHS debt. What's the level of interest that was delivered in Q3, now the right quarterly rate to assume going forward?

好的。接著一個我想算是例行性的問題。考量到你先前提到，因為再融資 IHS 的債務而能取得低於平均的利率，那麼第三季所反映的利息費用水準，是否就是未來可以假設的正確單季利率水準？

Yes. This is the new run rate with respect to the interest expense on our debt. We were very fortunate with hindsight that we refinanced a large part of the debt at the beginning of March, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury was around [1.73] at that point in time. So we are very happy that we locked ourselves in with long-term debt at very low levels.

是的。這就是我們債務利息費用的新常態（run rate）。事後看來，我們非常幸運，因為我們在 3 月初為相當大一部分債務完成再融資，當時美國 10 年期公債殖利率大約在 [1.73] 左右。因此我們很高興能以非常低的水準鎖定長期債務。

And actually, if you look at the average cost of debt for any player now in our industry, we're at one of the lowest levels. So yes, this is the normalized level. If you look, though, at the interest expense line, there's one point that I want to make. It's a net number. So we're generating more interest income on our cash balances. So that is helping us a little bit and obviously, that might fluctuate over time.

而且實際上，如果你看看我們產業中任何一家業者目前的平均債務成本，我們處於最低水準之一。所以是的，這就是常態化水準。不過，如果你看利息費用那一行，有一點我想說明：那是一個淨額數字。因此，我們在現金餘額上產生了更多的利息收入。這對我們有一些幫助，當然，這可能會隨時間波動。

Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

Ewout, I just wanted to ask you a little bit about your labor cost trends. Obviously, it's a significant component of costs. Everyone in the industry has been dealing with the rising labor costs. Given what's going on in the market, what's your outlook for that? And do you see that kind of letting up in terms of just how we should think about the costs of the business on a go-forward basis, let's say, over the next 6 to 12 months?

Ewout，我想請你談談你們的人力成本趨勢。顯然，這是成本中很重要的一部分。產業內每家公司都在面對人力成本上升。就目前市場的情況而言，你對此的展望是什麼？你是否看到這種情況有緩和的跡象，也就是說，未來在思考業務成本時，例如接下來 6 到 12 個月，應該怎麼看？

Shlomo, obviously, we are exposed as everyone else, to increases from an overall labor market perspective and comp expectations, and we need to stay competitive in order to attract and retain the best talent. So let me expand a little bit on that answer.

Shlomo，很明顯地，我們和其他人一樣，會受到整體勞動市場角度的薪酬上升與薪酬預期的影響；而且我們必須保持競爭力，才能吸引並留住最優秀的人才。所以我再把這個回答延伸說明一下。

So about 60% of our overall expense base is people cost. And obviously, we have people across the whole world in many different job groups and categories. It's not a one-size-fits-all. We see more competitive situations in certain markets and jurisdictions. We see it more in certain job groups. And we are continuously making sure that we stay competitive from an overall comp perspective.

我們整體費用基礎中大約 60% 是人員成本。顯然，我們在全球各地都有員工，涵蓋許多不同的職務群組與類別，並不是一體適用。我們在某些市場與司法管轄區看到更激烈的競爭情況；在某些職務群組也更明顯。我們持續確保在整體薪酬角度保持競爭力。

And we will continue to do that. So we're definitely expecting to see also some of the changes over the next period flowing through our P&L. But at the same time, we are also taking advantage of a lot of levers that we are having and maybe levers that are given to us through the merger. So we have, of course, the opportunity to realize cost synergies and reduction of headcount is an element to that.

而且我們會持續這麼做。因此，我們確實預期在接下來一段期間，也會有一些變化反映到我們的損益表上。但同時，我們也在善用我們擁有的許多槓桿，或許也包括併購帶給我們的槓桿。當然，我們有機會實現成本綜效，而人力精簡是其中一個要素。

So that goes in an opposite direction as well as synergies, cost synergies around real estate, around procurement. And then as you see this year, given the performance of the company, also incentive compensation costs are down and we gave you the overall impact of around $120 million to $140 million. So it is a bit of a mix. On the one hand, staying competitive from a labor market perspective, but on the other hand, using a lot of levers, in order to offset the overall impact on our expense line and on our margins.

因此，這也會朝相反方向發揮作用，此外還有綜效，例如不動產方面的成本綜效、採購方面的成本綜效。再者，如你今年所見，鑑於公司表現，獎勵性薪酬成本也下降了；我們也提供了整體影響約 1.2 億到 1.4 億美元。所以這是一個混合的情況：一方面要在勞動市場角度保持競爭力；另一方面則運用許多槓桿來抵銷對我們費用線與利潤率的整體影響。

Okay. And then I just want to ask a little bit more about trying to figure out how far we are from the bottom, just in terms of the Ratings revenue. Doug, you talked about refunding walls becoming more meaningful in the middle of next year. If you take the revenue that you would expect from those refunding walls together with your subscription revenue, that you're getting, say, this year. How far away are you from, let's say, 2022 revenue that you're expecting? In other words, how much further downward you really have to go just to kind of hit that number?

好的。接著我想再多問一點，想釐清就評級（Ratings）營收而言，我們距離谷底還有多遠。Doug，你提到再融資高牆（refunding walls）在明年年中會變得更有意義。如果把你預期從那些再融資高牆帶來的營收，加上你今年取得的訂閱營收放在一起，你距離你所期望的、例如 2022 年的營收水準還差多遠？換句話說，為了達到那個數字，實際上還需要再下滑多少？

Shlomo, we're not really trying to call a bottom or a top to the market. We are also not providing any guidance or outlook for 2023 at this time. As I mentioned, we've been very engaged with the markets with issuers and investors. We're also -- we have world-class economists and experts that are providing us with input. So we're looking at all of that, what you just discussed, but we're -- there's no -- but we have no ability to actually call a bottom.

Shlomo，我們並不是真的想去判斷市場的底部或頂部。我們目前也不提供 2023 年的任何指引或展望。如我提到的，我們一直非常積極地與市場、發行人與投資人互動。我們也——我們有世界級的經濟學家與專家提供意見。因此，我們會看你剛剛討論的所有因素，但我們——沒有——但我們其實沒有能力去真正判斷底部。

We will now take our final question from Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.

現在我們將進行最後一個問題，來自 JPMorgan 的 Andrew Steinerman。

Referring to Slide 38, I just wanted to talk about implied rating margins for the fourth quarter. To get to that mid-50s Rating margin for the full year, my math says it's about 49% Ratings margins for the fourth quarter. Ewout, if you could just please confirm that.

參考第 38 頁投影片，我想談談第四季隱含的評級利潤率。要達到全年評級利潤率在 50% 中段的水準，我的計算顯示第四季評級利潤率大約是 49%。Ewout，能否請你確認一下？

And then just help us appreciate the 49% because that's a notable step down from third quarter Ratings margins. Please comment about seasonality or any other factors we would need to understand fourth quarter Ratings margins on Slide 38.

另外，也請協助我們理解這個 49%，因為這相較第三季的評級利潤率是明顯下滑。請評論一下季節性或其他我們需要了解的因素，以便理解第 38 頁投影片上的第四季評級利潤率。

Andrew, as you understand, we're not giving quarterly guidance, so I can't give you numbers by quarter, by segment margins. But what we are, of course, trying to do is if we give you a full year picture, we give you a full year outlook. Then, of course, you can backwards calculate what is the expectation for the quarter itself.

Andrew，如你所知，我們不提供季度指引，所以我無法按季度、按分部利潤率給你數字。不過，我們當然在做的是：如果我們給你全年全貌、給你全年展望，那麼你當然可以倒推計算該季度本身的預期。

I do want to point out that the third quarter in general is the lowest quarter for us from an expense perspective. That is due to seasonality. The fourth quarter is higher. But you have seen that in previous years as well. So from a trend perspective, there's nothing different than what you -- that you should have seen in the past. But sequentially, you should expect expenses to roll out. Again, that is normal seasonality.

我想指出，一般而言第三季對我們來說在費用角度是最低的季度，這是因為季節性因素。第四季會更高。但你在過去幾年也看過同樣情況。因此，就趨勢而言，沒有任何不同於你——你在過去應該看過的情況。但就環比而言，你應該預期費用會回升。再次強調，這是正常的季節性。

Well, that was the last question. So I'd like to make a quick closing comment. So first of all, thank you, everyone, for joining the call today for your questions and your support. But I'm really pleased with the progress we've made since closing the merger. It's only been 8 months. And we've been able to unify our management team under a strong vision and set of purposes and values.

好，這是最後一個問題。所以我想做一個簡短的結語。首先，感謝各位今天加入電話會議，提出問題並給予支持。但我對我們自併購完成以來所取得的進展感到非常滿意。到現在只有 8 個月。我們已能在強而有力的願景以及一套使命與價值觀之下，整合我們的管理團隊。

We see strong commercial success. You heard about it on this call, our cross-sell and our product innovation, and we're ahead of schedule to achieve our cost synergies. And all of that in a challenging macroeconomic backdrop where we discuss some of those topics today. But we also have very important secular trends that are creating opportunities for S&P Global: the energy transition; the continued interest in climate and sustainability; the need for analytics and insights in very turbulent markets.

我們看到強勁的商業成功。你在這通電話會議中也聽到了，我們的交叉銷售與產品創新，而且我們在實現成本綜效方面進度超前。所有這些都是在具挑戰性的總體經濟背景下完成的，我們今天也討論了其中一些主題。但我們也有非常重要的長期結構性趨勢，正在為 S&P Global 創造機會：能源轉型；對氣候與永續的持續關注；在非常動盪的市場中對分析與洞見的需求。

So we're very pleased with our progress, and I'm excited that we'll be able to share more with you on our strategic vision in our multiyear targets at our Investor Day on December 1. But let me end by thanking again our people who are absolutely fantastic, they're world-class. And I want to thank all of you again for joining us on this call today. Thank you very much.

因此，我們對進展感到非常滿意，也很期待能在 12 月 1 日的投資人日，與各位分享更多我們的策略願景與多年期目標。不過最後，讓我再次感謝我們的同仁，他們真的非常出色，是世界級的。同時也再次感謝各位今天加入這通電話會議。非常感謝。

That concludes this morning's call. A PDF version of the presenter slides is available now for downloading from investor.spglobal.com. Replay of the entire call will be available in about 2 hours. The webcast with audio and slides will be maintained on S&P Global's website for 1 year. The audio-only telephone replay will be maintained for 1 month.

今天上午的電話會議到此結束。簡報投影片的 PDF 版本現已可從 investor.spglobal.com 下載。整場電話會議的重播將在約 2 小時後提供。包含音訊與投影片的網路直播將在 S&P Global 的網站上保留 1 年。僅音訊的電話重播將保留 1 個月。

On behalf of S&P Global, we thank you for participating, and wish you a good day.

我謹代表 S&P Global，感謝各位參與，並祝各位有美好的一天。