South Bow Corp (SOBO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the South Bow third-quarter 2025 conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 South Bow 2025 年第三季電話會議和網路直播。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Martha Wilmot, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我把會議交給今天的第一位發言人，投資者關係總監瑪莎·威爾莫特女士。請開始吧。

Thank you, Marvin, and welcome, everyone, to South Bow's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Bevin Wirzba, President and Chief Executive Officer; Van Dafoe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Richard Prior, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝馬文，也歡迎各位參加南弓公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁兼執行長貝文‧維爾茲巴；資深副總裁兼財務長範‧達福；以及資深副總裁兼營運長理查‧普賴爾。

Before I turn it over to Bevin, I'd like to remind listeners that today's remarks will include forward-looking information and statements, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties addressed in our public disclosure documents, available under South Bow's SEDAR+ profile and in South Bow's filings with the SEC.

在將發言權交給貝文之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，今天的發言將包含前瞻性資訊和聲明，這些資訊和聲明受到我們在公開披露文件中闡述的風險和不確定性的影響，這些文件可在 South Bow 的 SEDAR+ 資料和 South Bow 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到。

Today's discussion will also include non-GAAP financial measures and ratios, which may not be comparable to measures presented by other entities.

今天的討論還將包括非GAAP財務指標和比率，這些指標可能與其他實體提供的指標不具可比性。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bevin.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給貝文。

Thanks, Martha, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. South Bow's third-quarter financial results once again demonstrated the resilience of our business with our stable earnings profile, allowing us to meaningfully deliver on our capital allocation priorities in our first year as an independent company.

謝謝瑪莎，大家早安。感謝各位今天蒞臨。 South Bow第三季的財務表現再次展現了我們業務的韌性，穩定的獲利狀況使我們能夠在獨立營運的第一年就切實實現資本配置目標。

We have paid a sustainable dividend to our shareholders, funded our first growth project at Blackrod and strengthened our financial position. We are also nearing the exit of all transition services with TC Energy, which we expect to finalize by the end of 2025, almost a full year ahead of schedule. We have become more efficient in the process and are realizing cost savings that drive a more competitive tool for our customers and a stronger bottom line for our shareholders.

我們已向股東派發了可持續的股息，為位於布萊克羅德的首個增長項目提供了資金，並鞏固了我們的財務狀況。此外，我們與TC Energy的所有過渡服務也即將完成，預計在2025年底前完成，比原計劃提前近一年。在此過程中，我們提高了效率，實現了成本節約，從而為客戶提供了更具競爭力的工具，並為股東帶來了更強勁的利潤。

The team has successfully managed several priorities while establishing South Bow as a stand-alone entity. And I'm pleased, maybe even a little relieved, if I'm honest, to say that we are now fully focused on our future strategic priorities of growing our business and enhancing our overall competitiveness while ensuring safe operations, financial strength and capital discipline.

在將 South Bow 打造成獨立營運的公司的同時，團隊成功地兼顧了多項優先事項。坦白說，我很高興，甚至有點如釋重負，因為我們現在可以全力專注於未來的策略重點：發展業務，提升整體競爭力，同時確保安全營運、財務穩健和資本紀律。

Regarding our growth initiatives, I visited our Blackrod site last week, and I am incredibly proud of the team's success in executing this important project, set to be delivered on schedule, within budget and with an exceptional safety record. I am confident that we will continue to demonstrate this type of project execution excellence as we mature our growth portfolio with organic and inorganic opportunities.

關於我們的成長計劃，我上週視察了位於布萊克羅德的工廠，我對團隊成功執行這項重要項目感到無比自豪。該專案按時、按預算完成，並且擁有卓越的安全記錄。我相信，隨著我們透過內生式和外延式成長機會不斷完善成長組合，我們將繼續展現這種卓越的專案執行能力。

By adding more revenue lines through growth, we will become more competitive across our existing systems. As we look to the future and the role of South Bow will play in serving our customers, we are encouraged by the dialogue taking place in Canada and the United States about advancing energy solutions. These conversations not only underscore the strength of the supply basin and the demand centers we serve, but also highlight the resilience of our customers' businesses.

透過拓展業務，增加收入來源，我們將提升現有系統的競爭力。展望未來，南弓地區將在服務客戶方面發揮重要作用。加拿大和美國正就推進能源解決方案展開對話，這令我們倍感鼓舞。這些對話不僅凸顯了我們所服務的供水盆地和需求中心的實力，也展現了客戶業務的韌性。

South Bow's assets are strategically positioned to serve their needs and we are focused on being the first choice for our customers. As we evaluate opportunities to leverage our pre-invested corridors, it will be important to establish appropriate risk and return frameworks, and carefully consider our investment requirements, which include minimizing shareholder capital exposure, adhering to our capital allocation priorities and seeking permitting durability.

South Bow的資產策略佈局合理，能夠滿足客戶需求，我們致力於成為客戶的首選。在評估如何利用我們已投資的走廊進行開發時，建立適當的風險和回報框架至關重要，同時我們也必須認真考慮我們的投資要求，包括最大限度地降低股東資本風險敞口、堅持資本配置優先事項以及尋求許可證的持久性。

On safe operations and asset integrity, we have made significant progress in our remedial actions following the Milepost 171 incident. The work our team is completing increases our confidence in the integrity of our system. As we work towards returning Keystone to baseline operations and closing out the requirements of PHMSA's corrective action order. Richard will provide further details on this shortly.

在安全營運和資產完整性方面，我們已在171英里路標事故後的補救措施方面取得了顯著進展。我們團隊正在完成的工作增強了我們對系統完整性的信心。我們正努力使Keystone恢復到基線營運狀態，並完成PHMSA糾正措施指令的要求。 Richard稍後將提供更多詳情。

Finally, we have laid out a clear set of priorities for our team as we focus our attention on our second year. These priorities include maintaining safe operations, maturing and executing on our growth portfolio, continuing to enhance our competitiveness and the ongoing demonstration of discipline in our capital allocation and shareholder returns.

最後，我們為團隊制定了一套清晰的優先事項，以集中精力迎接第二年的發展。這些優先事項包括：確保安全運營，完善並有效執行我們的成長型投資組合，持續提升競爭力，以及在資本配置和股東回報方面保持嚴謹的態度。

I will now ask Van and Richard to touch on the financial and operational expectations that come with these priorities. Richard?

現在我請範和理查德談談這些優先事項所帶來的財務和營運預期。理查德？

Thanks, Bevin, and good morning. I first want to speak to the progress we've made on our remedial actions at Milepost 171, while we await PHMSA's publication of the root cause analysis. The findings from the third-party metallurgical lab report determined that the pipe and welds conform to industry standards for design, materials and mechanical properties, and our own records confirm the pipeline was operating within its design pressure at the time of the incident.

謝謝貝文，早安。首先，我想談談我們在171英里處採取的補救措施進展情況，同時我們也在等待管道和危險材料安全管理局（PHMSA）發布根本原因分析報告。第三方冶金實驗室的報告結果表明，管道和焊接符合行業設計、材料和機械性能標準，我們自己的記錄也證實，事故發生時管道運行壓力在其設計範圍內。

Through the remedial work we've completed to date, we do not see evidence of a systemic issue, and we're confident we will address the system's long-term safety through actions we've already taken or through planned enhancements to our integrity programs. To that end, since April, we've completed six in-line inspection runs that place a focus on the long-seam pipe integrity.

透過我們迄今為止完成的補救工作，我們沒有發現系統性問題的證據，我們有信心透過已採取的措施或計劃中的完整性計劃改進，解決系統的長期安全問題。為此，自四月以來，我們已完成六次管道內檢測，並專注於長縫管道的完整性。

Preliminary inspection results show no notable concerns, reinforcing our confidence in the integrity and reliability of our system. We have also completed 37 integrity digs with no injurious issues to report. Our investigative work will be ongoing through the end of this year and into 2026.

初步檢查結果顯示未發現任何重大問題，這增強了我們對系統完整性和可靠性的信心。我們也完成了37次完整性挖掘，未發現任何需要通報的有害問題。我們的調查工作將持續到今年年底，並延續至2026年。

In parallel, we are advancing important work with our in-line inspection technology providers to address and resolve tool limitations and apply the latest and advanced technologies across our system to increase our ability to prevent future incidents. This work is being incorporated into our remedial work plan, which we will submit to PHMSA for approval. I anticipate that the Keystone pressure restrictions will eventually be lifted in a phased manner.

同時，我們正與管道內檢測技術供應商進行重要合作，以解決工具局限性，並在整個系統中應用最新先進技術，從而提高我們預防未來事故的能力。這項工作已納入我們的補救工作計劃，並將提交給管道和危險材料安全管理局 (PHMSA) 批准。我預計 Keystone 管道的壓力限制最終將分階段解除。

We're proactively sharing with PHMSA the results of all investigative work being performed with the goal to safely return Keystone to baseline operations in 2026 ahead of when market differentials are expected to widen and demand for uncapacity -- uncommitted capacity increases. Switching gears to the Blackrod project.

我們正積極主動地與PHMSA分享所有調查工作的結果，目標是在2026年之前安全地將Keystone專案恢復到基準營運狀態，以應對預計屆時市場價差擴大和未承諾產能需求增加的情況。接下來，我們將討論Blackrod項目。

In October, we achieved overall project mechanical completion and placed the 25-kilometer natural gas lateral into service. These are both significant milestones, and I want to extend a sincere thank you to the team for the tremendous effort in safely executing this project. Facility commissioning work is underway, and we remain on schedule and within budget to place the project into service early in 2026.

10月份，我們完成了工程整體機械施工，並投入使用了25公里長的天然氣支線。這兩個都是重要的里程碑，我衷心感謝團隊為安全順利地完成專案所付出的巨大努力。目前，設施調試工作正在進行中，我們仍按計劃推進，並控制在預算範圍內，預計將於2026年初正式投入使用。

Lastly, in October, all parties withdrew from the legal proceedings related to the variable toll disputes filed with the Canadian and US courts and regulators. These proceedings had been active for nearly six years. And with the matter behind us, the team has now focused -- has turned its focus to new business opportunities to jointly create value for our customers at South Bow.

最後，在十月份，各方撤回了向加拿大和美國法院及監管機構提起的與可變通行費爭議相關的法律訴訟。這些訴訟已經持續了近六年。隨著此事告一段落，團隊現在已將重心轉移到新的業務機會上，致力於與南弓河畔的客戶共同創造價值。

And a reminder that as part of the separation agreement with TC Energy, South Bow was indemnified for this matter in addition to other matters that existed prior to the spin up to a liability cap of USD22 million.

此外，需要提醒的是，作為與 TC Energy 的分離協議的一部分，South Bow 就此事以及分拆前存在的其他事項獲得了賠償，賠償責任上限為 2,200 萬美元。

I will now pass it over to Van to discuss South Bow's financial performance and outlook.

現在我將把發言權交給範，讓他來討論南弓的財務表現和前景。

Thanks, Richard. I'll start with our strong third-quarter performance, which included delivering normalized EBITDA of $250 million. As expected, the marketing losses that we crystallized early in the year were largely offset by normalized EBITDA associated with higher maintenance capital expenditures in the period. Distributable cash flow of $236 million benefited from a current tax recovery of $71 million resulting from changes in US tax legislation and successful optimization efforts from our tax team.

謝謝，理查。首先，我想談談我們強勁的第三季業績，其中包括實現2.5億美元的正常化EBITDA。如預期，年初確認的行銷虧損基本上被本季較高的維護性資本支出所帶來的正常化EBITDA所抵銷。可分配現金流為2.36億美元，這得益於美國稅法變更帶來的7100萬美元當期稅收抵免以及我們稅務團隊成功的優化工作。

To reflect these tax wins, we are revising our outlook for distributable cash flow to approximately $700 million for 2025 and our effective tax rate to range between 20% and 21%. We are reaffirming normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 of $1.01 billion.

為反映這些稅收優惠，我們將2025年可分配現金流量預期調整至約7億美元，並將實際稅率調整至20%至21%之間。我們重申2025年經調整後的EBITDA預期為10.1億美元。

Turning to 2026. Our outlook is supported by our highly contracted cash flows and the structural demand for our services. We are forecasting normalized EBITDA of $1.03 billion within a range of 2%. The key drivers of the increase from 2025 include; for marketing, we're expecting normalized EBITDA will be approximately $25 million higher, reflecting the recovery from losses recorded in 2025.

展望2026年。我們高度穩定的現金流和對我們服務的結構性需求支撐著我們的前景。我們預測，調整後的EBITDA將達到10.3億美元，上下浮動2%。與2025年相比，成長的主要驅動因素包括：在行銷方面，我們預期經調整後的EBITDA將增加約2,500萬美元，這反映了2025年虧損的收復。

For intra-Alberta and other, we expect normalized EBITDA will be approximately $10 million higher, reflecting Blackrod cash flows ramping up in the second half of 2026. And for Keystone, we expect normalized EBITDA to be approximately $15 million lower primarily due to reduced planned maintenance capital expenditures following an active integrity program in 2025.

對於阿爾伯塔省內及其他地區的項目，我們預計經調整後的 EBITDA 將增加約 1000 萬美元，這反映了 Blackrod 現金流在 2026 年下半年的增長。而對於 Keystone 項目，我們預計經調整後的 EBITDA 將減少約 1500 萬美元，這主要是由於在 2025 年積極開展完整性計劃後，計劃維護資本支出減少所致。

Distributable cash flow is forecast to be approximately $655 million within a range of 2%. As we consider the potential outcomes for the year, I'll note that normalized EBITDA and distributable cash flow will be influenced by pressure restrictions and price differentials. To exceed our baseline expectations, pressure restrictions will need to be lifted early in the year and price differentials would need to widen.

預計可分配現金流約 6.55 億美元，波動範圍為 2%。在考慮全年潛在績效時，需要指出的是，經調整後的 EBITDA 和可分配現金流量將受到壓力限制和價格差異的影響。為了超越我們的基準預期，壓力限制需要在年初解除，價格差異也需要擴大。

On the other hand, the low end of our guidance range reflects a scenario in which pressure restrictions have remained in place throughout the year and pricing differentials have tightened beyond current levels. Our capital program next year includes approximately $25 million of maintenance capital, reflecting a less active plan and approximately $10 million of growth capital to complete the Blackrod Connection project.

另一方面，我們預期範圍的下限反映了壓力限制措施全年持續且價格差異進一步收窄的情境。我們明年的資本計畫包括約2,500萬美元的維護資本（反映出一項較為保守的計畫）和約1,000萬美元的成長性資本，用於完成布萊克羅德連結計畫。

We plan to update our outlook for growth capital once we have sanctioned our next development project. Lastly, our Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share payable on January 15 to shareholders of record on December 31. The dividend remains an important component of our total return proposition.

我們計劃在下一個開發項目獲得批准後更新成長資本預期。最後，董事會已批准派發每股0.50美元的季度股息，將於1月15日支付給12月31日登記在冊的股東。股息仍然是我們整體回報方案的重要組成部分。

With that, I'll hand it back to Bevin for closing remarks.

接下來，我將把發言權交還給貝文，請他作總結發言。

Thanks, Van. After another solid quarter of financial and operational results and through the hard work and effort of the team in establishing South Bow, we have strongly positioned our business for longer-term growth and success.

謝謝範。經過又一個季度穩健的財務和營運業績，以及團隊在建立南弓專案上的辛勤努力，我們已經為公司的長期成長和成功奠定了堅實的基礎。

Our priorities for South Bow's second year are clear. We will maintain safe operations and continue progressing towards returning Keystone to baseline operations, mature and execute our growth portfolio of organic and inorganic opportunities, continue to optimize our workflows and increase our competitiveness and maintain discipline with our capital allocation and shareholder returns.

South Bow第二年的工作重點很明確。我們將繼續保持安全運營，並持續推進Keystone恢復到正常營運水準；完善並執行我們的有機和無機成長機會組合；繼續優化工作流程，提升競爭力；並嚴格把控資本配置和股東回報。

We look forward to sharing more on this next week at our first ever Investor Day.

我們期待在下週的首屆投資者日與大家分享更多相關資訊。

With that, I'll now ask the operator to open the line for questions.

接下來，我將請接線生開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Sam Burwell, Jefferies.

（操作說明）Sam Burwell，傑富瑞。

So we got these latest list of major projects, I believe, yesterday in the proposed crude pipeline that Alberta (inaudible) was not on that, but I understand that you're providing some engineering and permitting support. So I'm just curious for an update on that.

昨天我們收到了最新的重大項目清單，其中擬建的原油管道項目不在阿爾伯塔省（聽不清楚）的名單上，但我了解到貴省正在提供一些工程和許可方面的支持。所以我想了解這方面的最新進展。

And then there were also some press reports, I mean, this is going back a little bit further about Keystone XL, a reboot of that being talked about in trade discussions between the US and Canada. So with respect to that, just curious about what sort of existing infrastructure you guys might be able to leverage to expand crude egress capacity over kind of the medium and longer term?

此外，還有一些媒體報道，例如關於Keystone XL輸油管的重啟，美加貿易談判中也曾討論過此事。所以，我想了解一下，你們可以利用哪些現有基礎建設來擴大中長期原油出口能力？

Yes. Thank you, Sam. It's Bevin here. I mean, first off, one of our key capital allocation priorities is to leverage our pre-invested corridors that we have both in Alberta, the pre-invested capital that we made for the former Keystone XL project and then pre-invested capital along our system in the United States. So we're always evaluating ways of leveraging that pre-spend for other solutions.

是的，謝謝你，山姆。我是貝文。首先，我們重要的資本配置優先事項之一是充分利用我們在阿爾伯塔省和美國沿線已預先投資的走廊，包括我們先前為 Keystone XL 項目投入的資金，以及我們在美國輸電線路沿線的預投資資金。因此，我們一直在評估如何利用這些預投資來開發其他解決方案。

Directly to your question on the West Coast project. Yes, we are providing some advisory support. Many members of our team have a long history in developing significant capital projects. And so we're lending some of that expertise to the provinces initiative there, but it goes no further than that.

直接回答您關於西海岸專案的問題。是的，我們正在提供一些諮詢支援。我們團隊的許多成員在開發大型基建專案方面擁有豐富的經驗。因此，我們將這些專業知識貢獻給省內的這項計劃，但僅限於此。

With respect to trade negotiations, to be honest, Sam, that's way above our pay grade. We're obviously watching and encouraged by the ongoing dialogue between Canada and the US, but I can't really speak any more detail to what's going on behind closed doors that we're not a part of. So thank you.

坦白說，薩姆，關於貿易談判，這遠遠超出了我們的能力範圍。我們當然在關注加美之間正在進行的對話，並對此感到鼓舞，但對於我們不參與的幕後談判，我真的無法透露更多細節。謝謝。

Yes, of course, totally respect that. And then the commentary around marketing and tight crude spreads that certainly makes sense and squares with commentary from some of your peers. Just curious if you have a view looking out a little bit further when you think that spreads can widen out, inventories in Alberta can normalize and then we might start to see some contribution from spot volumes once presumably the egress has been lifted?

當然，我完全尊重您的觀點。關於行銷和原油價差收窄的評論也很有道理，與一些同行的觀點一致。我只是好奇，您認為價差何時會擴大，阿爾伯塔省的庫存何時會恢復正常，以及一旦出口限制解除，現貨交易量何時會開始有所增長？

Yes. Our views have remained very consistent on that front. We anticipated with our -- with the TMX pipeline coming on that, that would relieve some of the egress issues that we had over the last number of years. But we're very encouraged by the supply growth that has been occurring by our customers.

是的。我們在這方面的觀點始終如一。我們預期，隨著TMX輸油管的投產，過去幾年我們面臨的一些輸油問題將會得到緩解。但我們也對客戶供應量的成長感到非常鼓舞。

If you just listen to the last week of quarters from our customers here up in Canada, you'll have noted that they are all very encouraged by potential growth in their organizations. And so our outlook has us seeing conditions being a lot more favorable in effectively late '26, early '27, where we see that, that supply growth will exceed what currently exists for egress, making our systems likely to see more walk-up and spot needs.

如果您仔細聽聽我們加拿大客戶上週的季度報告，您會發現他們都對各自組織的潛在成長感到非常鼓舞。因此，我們預計到2026年底或2027年初，市場環境將更加有利，屆時供應成長將超過目前的出口需求，這意味著我們的系統可能會迎來更多臨時和零星的需求。

Maurice Choy, RBC Capital Markets.

Maurice Choy，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Can I just double-click on the tax optimization and the US legislation changes? Can you share a little bit more about what these were? And if these benefits reflect in the guidance for DCF for this and next year would actually translate to benefits also beyond 2026? Or do you envision returning back to, I guess, the prior cash tax run rate level?

我可以直接雙擊查看稅務優化和美國法律變更嗎？能詳細解釋一下這些變更的具體內容嗎？如果這些優惠反映在今年和明年的DCF指導意見中，那麼這些優惠是否也能延續到2026年以後？還是您預計會恢復到先前的現金稅率水準？

Yes, Maurice, it's Van here. Thanks for the question. The tax wins that we got were a couple of things. One is the one big beautiful bill in the US that allows us to deduct additional interest. We have reached the cap on interest deduction. So that was extended. So that would be as long as that legislation stays, then we would continue to benefit from that.

是的，莫里斯，我是范。謝謝你的提問。我們取得的稅收優惠政策有兩點。其中之一是美國一項非常棒的法案，它允許我們扣除額外的利息。我們之前已經達到了利息扣除額的上限，所以這項優惠政策得到了延長。只要這項法案繼續有效，我們就能繼續從中受益。

The second piece was around tax optimization, and we identified some tax pools that we were able to accelerate. And so those tax pools were on our balance sheet, and they were there. We just accelerated them. So we'll get that benefit in 2025 and 2026. And then in 2027, we'll go back to more of a regular cadence. So it's really just a flip between current tax and our deferred tax.

第二部分是關於稅務優化，我們確定了一些可以加速支付的稅款項目。這些稅款項目原本就在我們的資產負債表上，我們只是提前支付了它們。因此，我們將在2025年和2026年獲得收益。然後在2027年，我們將恢復到更正常的支付節奏。所以，這其實只是在當期稅款和遞延稅款之間進行轉換而已。

Understood. And if I could finish with a question on the transition agreements. I think you previously mentioned that this transition will help improve your processes to be more efficient and realize cost savings for your customers through a more competitive toll, both of which I think you reconfirmed today in your prepared remarks.

明白了。最後，我能否問一個關於過渡協議的問題？我記得您之前提到過，這次過渡將有助於改進流程，提高效率，並透過更具競爭力的收費標準為客戶節省成本，而您今天在準備好的發言稿中也再次確認了這一點。

But you also mentioned that this could benefit the bottom line for shareholders. So are you able to quantify what that is and whether this is within the 2% to 3% EBITDA CAGR objective?

但您也提到這可能會提高股東的利潤。那麼，您能否量化一下具體能提高多少，以及這是否符合2%至3%的EBITDA複合年增長率目標？

Yes, Maurice, it's Bevin. So our objective of getting off of the TSAs as quick as possible in our first year is that it was -- you're not able to really optimize many of the processes within the company until you're legitimately on your new systems. And a simple example of that would be supply chain and procurement on how you issue and pay invoices. And we delivered Blackrod very successfully, but it came with a very kind of clunky procurement system that we needed to use.

是的，莫里斯，我是貝文。我們第一年的目標是盡快擺脫TSA系統，因為只有真正啟用新系統，公司內部的許多流程才能有效優化。一個簡單的例子就是供應鏈和採購，例如如何開立和支付發票。我們成功交付了Blackrod系統，但它自備一個非常笨拙的採購系統，而我們不得不使用它。

So we're now as one -- just one example, being able to optimize that and the delivery. I did point out in my remarks is that we believe that we can accrete those savings and those optimizations through to our variable toll. But there are some of those cost savings that do then flow through as well down to EBITDA. We have not included any optimization efforts into our 2% to 3% outlook with respect to EBITDA going forward.

所以我們現在融為一體——舉個例子，我們能夠優化流程和交付。我在發言中指出，我們相信這些節省和優化措施能夠轉化為可變收費。但其中一些成本節約也會反映在 EBITDA 上。我們尚未將任何優化措施納入未來 EBITDA 成長 2% 至 3% 的預期中。

Those elements, we're still targeting to improve. We made good headway and at our year-end results. I hope to provide a good summary of what we found in our first year. But just for clarity, Maurice, we did not include that optimization into our EBITDA outlook guidance.

這些方面，我們仍在努力改進。我們在年終業績中取得了顯著進展。我希望能夠對我們在第一年所取得的成果做一個全面的總結。但需要說明的是，莫里斯，我們並未將這項優化納入 EBITDA 預期指引中。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan Securities.

Jeremy Tonet，摩根大通證券。

This is Eli on for Jeremy. I wanted to circle back to the organic growth opportunity set. I know opening remarks mentioned the upcoming development project. Just hoping to get some more color on what types of projects you guys are looking at, which side of the border and maybe just whether Blackrod kind of represents the template for growth projects as you see it?

我是Eli，替Jeremy發言。我想再談談有機成長機會。我知道開場白提到了即將啟動的開發項目。我只是想更詳細地了解一下你們正在關注哪些類型的項目，項目位於邊境的哪一側，以及Blackrod是否代表了你們眼中增長項目的模板？

Thank you, Eli. I think we're obviously going to have that as a subject area for our Investor Day next week. But consistent to what we've said previously, we've been listening to our customers and trying to understand what kind of services they're looking for, for their businesses to be competitive. We were able to provide a great solution for IPC on Blackrod.

謝謝 Eli。我想我們下週的投資者日肯定會重點討論這個問題。但正如我們之前所說，我們一直在傾聽客戶的聲音，並努力了解他們需要什麼樣的服務，以提升業務競爭力。我們成功地為 IPC 在 Blackrod 平台上提供了一套出色的解決方案。

And we're in a number of conversations, both in Canada and in the United States. And so we've seen probably the -- when we launched this business and made the announcement that the spin was occurring in mid-2023, I would say, since that time, the environment actually has become a little bit more constructive in both Canada and the United States.

我們正在加拿大和美國進行多次洽談。因此，我們看到——自從我們推出這項業務並宣布分拆將於2023年中期進行以來——我認為，加拿大和美國的商業環境實際上都變得更加有利了。

And so we've been maturing those growth opportunities. And that's one of our key priorities for 2026 is to mature and execute on the next organic and inorganic opportunities.

因此，我們一直在推進這些成長機會的成熟。而我們2026年的關鍵優先事項之一，就是成熟並掌握下一個有機成長和無機成長機會。

Looking forward to the Investor Day. And then just for the second question, I think you guys had a helpful slide showing 2026 guidance drivers. But just hoping to get some more context on how the kind of Milepost 171 remediation plan fits into potentially reducing that DRA and providing some upside next year.

期待投資者日。關於第二個問題，你們之前展示的2026年業績指引驅動因素的幻燈片很有幫助。但我希望能更詳細地了解一下，Milepost 171的整改計畫是如何幫助降低債務風險調整（DRA）並在明年帶來一些成長的。

What does that process look like? And when might we expect a little bit of color there and maybe framing how that fits into the guide?

這個過程是怎麼樣的？我們什麼時候才能看到一些細節，以及它如何融入指南中？

So, Ely, I'll start and then pass it over to Richard on the plans for this year. When you looked -- when we provided the guidance around the range, I just want to remind everyone that 90% of our EBITDA comes in every year through our contracted period. So we have a great solid base to start from. And we've been working very diligently around getting our system capacity back up.

那麼，伊萊，我先來，然後把今年的計畫交給理查。之前我們給出業績預期的時候，我想提醒大家，我們90%的EBITDA都來自合約期間的收入。所以我們有一個非常穩固的基礎。而且，我們一直在努力恢復系統產能。

But at a very high level, what has allowed us to deliver all our contracts and deliver our base business is our system operating performance, our SOF has really hit it out of the park. And our teams have done a great job allowing our systems to be available for the volumes that we're moving today.

但從宏觀層面來看，我們能夠履行所有合約並實現基本業務目標的關鍵在於我們卓越的系統運作效能，我們的安全營運團隊（SOF）表現尤為出色。我們的團隊也功不可沒，確保了系統能滿足我們目前的業務量需求。

But I'll pass it to Richard to just talk about our mitigation plans and the work that's left to do here as part of the Milepost 171.

但我會把麥克風交給理查德，讓他談談我們的緩解計畫以及作為第 171 英里里程碑的一部分，這裡還有哪些工作要做。

Sure, yes. And I touched on in my comments, some of the work that we've completed to date. So we're implementing a comprehensive remediation program that's system-wide. We've completed, so far, six in-line inspection runs and 37 integrity digs. We'll continue that work through this year and into next year.

當然，是的。我在發言中也提到了我們迄今為止完成的一些工作。我們正在實施一項全系統範圍的綜合修復計劃。到目前為止，我們已經完成了六次管道內檢測和37次完整性挖掘。我們將繼續這項工作，貫穿今年和明年。

And then what we'll end up doing is filing all of this work as it's ongoing, but we'll file a remedial work plan with PHMSA and eventually work with the regulator around lifting the pressure restrictions. Our goal is for that to happen sometime in 2026, it's hard to point to a precise timing for it.

最終，我們會將所有這些工作進度都記錄下來，同時向管道和危險材料安全管理局 (PHMSA) 提交一份整改工作計劃，並最終與監管機構合作解除壓力限制。我們的目標是在 2026 年的某個時候實現這一目標，但很難確定具體時間。

But as we work through the year, I think we'll start to see pressure restrictions removed in increments, and that will allow us more access to uncommitted volumes, which we think will ramp up through the year.

但隨著我們在這一年中不斷努力，我認為我們將開始看到壓力限制逐步解除，這將使我們能夠獲得更多未承諾的容量，我們認為這將在今年內逐步增加。

And Eli, it's Van here. I think that even if pressure restrictions are lifted, with those tighter differentials, you won't see a ton of EBITDA from those spot volumes. So that's just another thing to point out.

我是Van，Eli。我認為即使解除壓力限制，在價差收窄的情況下，現貨交易量也不會帶來多少EBITDA。所以，這一點需要指出。

Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

Praneeth Satish，富國銀行。

So recognizing you're going to talk about your projects more at the Analyst Day. But as it stands today, do you think a placeholder assumption for CapEx in 2026 would be kind of in that $165 million range that you're spending in '25? Or do you think at this point based on the nature of the discussions that you're having in the pipeline that, that spend won't really hit in '26, and therefore, CapEx is likely to go down significantly in '26, even if you announce new projects. Just trying to get a better sense of what to assume for CapEx and what to assume for free cash flow next year?

我知道您會在分析師日上更詳細地介紹您的專案。但就目前而言，您認為2026年的資本支出（CapEx）的預估金額會和2025年的1.65億美元差不多嗎？或者，根據您目前正在討論的項目情況，您認為2026年的支出不會達到這個水平，因此，即使您宣布新項目，2026年的資本支出也可能會大幅下降？我只是想更了解明年資本支出和自由現金流的預估情況。

Thank you, Praneeth. So in our capital table, we only put capital that we have sanctioned. And so you'll note that we don't have anything sanctioned at present, but we're working towards maturing those projects forward. With what Van commented on in our tax optimization, we've created a bit more capacity with respect to free cash flow and just to be able to put towards capital.

謝謝Praneeth。在我們的資本表中，我們只列出已核准的資金。您會注意到，目前我們還沒有任何已獲批准的項目，但我們正在努力推動這些項目的成熟。正如Van在稅務優化方面所提到的，我們增加了一些自由現金流，以便能夠投入更多資金用於資本支出。

I would say that right now, we've consistently said that we need to invest roughly on average $100 million plus or minus every year in order to deliver our 2% to 3% EBITDA growth CAGR. And I would use that as probably a good proxy over the next few years. If we do find something that's larger or more material, then we would love to finance that on a different basis.

我認為，目前我們一直強調，為了實現2%至3%的EBITDA複合年增長率，我們需要每年平均投資約1億美元。未來幾年，這應該是比較合適的參考指標。如果我們發現規模更大或更重要的項目，我們很樂意採用不同的融資方式。

But I think for your modeling efforts, remaining kind of consistent to what we originally guided right out of the gate would be the best approach.

但我認為，對於你們的建模工作而言，從一開始就堅持我們最初的指導方針，才是最好的方法。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe following up on one of those modeling assumptions. So I'm just trying to square the moving pieces here with the variable toll settlements and what the future P&L impact could look like at this point. I guess the way I read it is you've got maybe $33 million of remaining payments that SOBO would make over the next six years.

明白了，這很有幫助。或許可以跟進一下其中一個模型假設。我現在只是想把這些變動因素，包括可變通行費結算額，以及未來損益表可能受到的影響理順。我的理解是，SOBO 未來六年可能還需要支付約 3,300 萬美元。

But then you'd receive $19 million over the next two years and all of this, I think, is excluded from EBITDA. I just want to kind of double check that?

但這樣一來，你將在未來兩年內收到 1900 萬美元，而且我認為這部分收入應該不計入 EBITDA。我只是想再確認一下？

Yes, it's Van here. All that would be normalized out of our EBITDA. So that wouldn't be included. If you're talking about GAAP and cash, then yes, yes, you're correct.

是的，是Van。所有這些都會從我們的EBITDA中剔除，所以不會包含在內。如果您指的是GAAP和現金流，那麼是的，您說得對。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to turn it back to Bevin for closing remarks.

目前我不再接受其他提問。現在我想把時間交還給貝文，請他作總結發言。

Well, thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in South Bow and look forward to connecting with you next week at our Investor Day.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。我們非常感謝大家一直以來對South Bow的關注，並期待下週在我們的投資者日上再次與您相聚。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。本次會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。