South Bow Corp (SOBO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the South Bow quarter two conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加南弓第二季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Martha, your first speaker for today. Please go ahead.

現在我把會議交給今天的第一位發言人瑪莎。請開始吧。

Thank you, Brianna, and welcome, everyone, to South Bow's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Bevin Wirzba, President and Chief Executive Officer; Van Dafoe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Richard Prior, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. We also have additional members of our leadership team in the room to help with the question-and-answer session.

謝謝布里安娜，也歡迎各位參加南弓公司2025年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁兼執行長貝文‧維爾茲巴；資深副總裁兼財務長範‧達福；以及資深副總裁兼營運長理查‧普賴爾。此外，我們還有其他幾位領導團隊成員在場，協助解答各位的提問。

Before I turn it over to Bevin, I'd like to remind listeners that today's remarks will include forward-looking information and statements, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties addressed in our public disclosure documents available under South Bow's SEDAR+ profile and in South Bows filings with the SEC. Today's discussion will also include non-GAAP financial measures and ratios, which may not be comparable to measures presented by other entities.

在將發言權交給貝文之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，今天的發言將包含前瞻性資訊和陳述，這些資訊和陳述受制於我們在South Bow的SEDAR+檔案和提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的公開披露文件中所述的風險和不確定性。今天的討論也將涉及非GAAP財務指標和比率，這些指標可能與其他實體提供的指標不具可比性。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bevin.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給貝文。

Thanks, Martha, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. South Bow's second quarter financial results once again exemplified the resilience of our business with our strong commercial underpinnings protecting our cash flows from the market volatility and operational downtime. We generated $250 million of normalized EBITDA in the period and for the second consecutive quarter, successfully maintained our debt metrics as we prioritize strengthening our financial position.

謝謝瑪莎，大家早安。感謝各位今天蒞臨。 South Bow第二季的財務表現再次展現了我們業務的韌性，強大的商業基礎保護了我們的現金流免受市場波動和營運中斷的影響。本季我們實現了2.5億美元的經調整EBITDA，並且連續第二季成功維持了債務指標，我們將繼續把加強財務狀況作為首要任務。

We also demonstrated our execution abilities by advancing our Blackrod Connection Project and continuing to establish South Bow's capabilities as we transition from a large rate-regulated entity to a more commercially focused and entrepreneurial organization. Now that we are using our own ERP system and are close to substantially exiting our transition service agreements within a year of spinning, we are optimizing our workflows to ensure South Bow's long-term competitiveness and success.

我們也透過推動布萊克羅德連結計畫展現了自身的執行能力，並持續提升南弓公司的能力，協助其從大型受監管的機構轉型為更注重商業營運和創業精神的組織。目前，我們已啟用自主研發的ERP系統，並即將於分拆後一年內基本完成過渡服務協議的終止。在此過程中，我們將優化工作流程，以確保南弓公司的長期競爭力和成功。

Now regarding Milepost 171, we expect to have the root cause failure analysis findings by the end of the third quarter. Richard will share more on that later. While we don't have all the answers yet, what I can share is that South Bow's agility as a stand-alone company has allowed us to respond, repair, recover and remediate quicker than before. This gives me the confidence that we are developing and executing a remedial action plan that will address the findings of the independent investigations and ensure the continued safe and reliable operations of our pipeline, all while maintaining our solid financial outlook for 2025.

關於171英里處的故障，我們預計在第三季末獲得根本原因故障分析結果。理查德稍後會詳細介紹。雖然我們目前還沒有所有問題的答案，但我可以透露的是，作為一家獨立運營的公司，南弓管道的靈活性使我們能夠比以往更快地做出回應、進行修復、恢復和補救。這讓我相信，我們正在製定並執行一項補救行動計劃，該計劃將解決獨立調查的結果，確保管道持續安全可靠地運營，同時保持我們2025年的穩健財務前景。

While this year has had its fair share of challenges, I'm incredibly proud of the way our team continues prioritizing the safety of our operations and surrounding communities, while remaining focused on the future as we work to enhance our value proposition of providing customers with the optimal path to the strongest demand markets.

儘管今年面臨諸多挑戰，但我為我們的團隊感到無比自豪，他們始終將營運和周邊社區的安全放在首位，同時專注於未來，努力提升我們的價值主張，為客戶提供通往需求最強勁市場的最佳途徑。

I will now ask Richard and Van to provide some additional details on our operational and financial outlooks. Richard?

現在我請理查德和範提供一些關於我們營運和財務前景的更多細節。理查德？

Thank you, Bevin, and good morning. Today, I'll provide updates on the progress we've made responding to Milepost 171 and next steps as we address PHMSA's corrective action order and an independent third party continues the root cause failure assessment. The most important points to be made today are that, one, the pipeline is safe to operate. Two, we are confident the independent third-party investigation will identify causal and contributing factors to the incident and remedial steps will be taken that address these findings. And three, while we comply with the corrective action order, we are able to continue delivering on our contractual commitments of 585,000 barrels per day.

謝謝貝文，早安。今天，我將報告我們針對171英里管道事故的應對進展，以及在執行PHMSA整改令的同時，以及獨立第三方繼續進行根本原因故障評估期間的後續步驟。今天最重要的幾點是：第一，目前管道可以安全運作。第二，我們相信獨立的第三方調查將找出事故的根本原因和促成因素，並將採取相應的補救措施。第三，在我們遵守整改令的同時，我們能夠繼續履行每日58.5萬桶的合約承諾。

Our operations and remediation crews completed the cleanup and reclamation of the site in early June. We estimate the total cost for the incident, inclusive of the response, repair and cleanup will be approximately $60 million, owing to the rapid and well-orchestrated initial response, which mitigated the environmental impacts of the incident. Our insurance policies are expected to cover most of these costs.

我們的營運和修復團隊已於六月初完成了場地清理和修復工作。由於初期反應迅速且組織有序，有效減輕了事故對環境的影響，我們估計此事件的總成本（包括回應、修復和清理費用）約為6000萬美元。預計我們的保險將涵蓋大部分費用。

As Bevin mentioned, the third-party root cause failure analysis is ongoing, and we anticipate the results will be completed in the September time frame. We can confirm that the mechanical and metallurgical testing completed to date concluded that the pipe and welds met industry standards for design, materials and mechanical properties. The testing determined the source of the failure was an axial crack that initiated on the long-seam weld, which propagated during operations until the failure occurred. The root cause investigation is a dynamic process, and we will continue to learn more as it unfolds.

正如貝文所提到的，第三方根本原因失效分析仍在進行中，我們預期結果將於9月完成。我們可以確認，迄今為止完成的機械和冶金測試表明，管道和焊接符合行業設計、材料和機械性能標準。測試確定失效根源在於長縫焊縫上產生的軸向裂紋，該裂紋在運行過程中不斷擴展直至失效。根本原因調查是一個動態過程，我們將隨著調查的進展而不斷了解更多資訊。

In parallel, our engineering and pipeline integrity teams have worked closely with our integrity providers, and we've begun implementing remedial actions. We have already completed 4 in-line inspection runs since April with the preliminary finding of these tool runs indicating no injurious issues. We've also completed 8 integrity digs in the vicinity of the failure location, again, with no notable issues to report.

同時，我們的工程和管道完整性團隊與完整性服務提供者緊密合作，並已開始實施補救措施。自四月以來，我們已完成四次管道內檢測，初步檢測結果顯示未發現任何有害問題。此外，我們還在故障點附近進行了八次完整性挖掘，同樣未發現任何重大問題。

Additional in-line inspection tool runs and further integrity digs will be completed through the balance of 2025 and into 2026. As we conduct these activities, all findings will be reported to PHMSA as well as incorporated into our programs to strengthen our confidence in the integrity and reliability of the system, keeping our assets safely operating. Through this process, we will maintain transparency with our regulators, customers and industry peers.

在2025年剩餘時間和2026年，我們將完成更多管線內偵測工具的運作和進一步的完整性挖掘工作。在進行這些活動的過程中，所有發現都將報告給管道和危險材料安全管理局（PHMSA），並納入我們的計劃，以增強我們對系統完整性和可靠性的信心，確保我們的資產安全運作。在此過程中，我們將與監管機構、客戶和行業同行保持透明溝通。

So with that brief operational update, I'll pass it over to Van to discuss South Bows financial outlook for the remainder of the year.

那麼，在簡要匯報完營運情況後，我將把麥克風交給 Van，讓他來討論 South Bows 今年剩餘時間的財務前景。

Thanks, Richard. South Bow's base business remains largely unaffected by tariffs and market volatility with 90% of our normalized EBITDA contracted. We are reaffirming our 2025 outlook for normalized EBITDA of $1.01 billion. South Bow expects to fulfill our committed throughput contracts for the remainder of the year, but we will have limited capacity to transport uncommitted or spot volumes on our Keystone System.

謝謝，理查。 South Bow 的基礎業務基本上未受關稅和市場波動的影響，我們90%的正常化 EBITDA 已簽訂合約。我們重申對2025年正常化 EBITDA 10.1億美元的預期。 South Bow 預計將在今年剩餘時間內履行已承諾的吞吐量合同，但我們 Keystone 系統運輸未承諾或現貨貨物的能力將有限。

We are revising our outlook for distributable cash flow to $590 million, up from $535 million to reflect a few items. First are the positive impacts from changes in US tax legislation, which will contribute approximately $15 million of our run rate current tax savings.

我們將可分配現金流量預期從5.35億美元上調至5.9億美元，主要原因是以下幾個方面。首先是美國稅法改革帶來的正面影響，這將為我們帶來約1500萬美元的年度稅收節省。

Second is our modified definition of the measure, which now includes interest income of about $30 million for 2025. The remainder is made up of small wins that came through the first half of the year. We are reducing our maintenance capital expenditures outlook by $10 million, bringing it down slightly to $55 million in 2025 as we focus on prioritizing the remedial actions related to Milepost 171 that Richard just spoke to.

其次，我們修改了該指標的定義，現在包含了2025年約3000萬美元的利息收入。其餘部分則來自上半年取得的一些小額收益。我們將維護性資本支出預期下調1000萬美元，使其在2025年略微降至5500萬美元，因為我們將重點放在優先處理理查德剛才提到的171英里里程碑相關的補救措施上。

With our outlook for normalized EBITDA remaining unchanged, we expect to exit 2025 with a net debt to normalized EBITDA ratio of approximately 4.8x. Our deleveraging will begin as the cash flows associated with Blackrod start in the second half of 2026 and increase through 2027. Finally, our Board of Directors have approved a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share payable on October 15 to shareholders of record on September 29.

鑑於我們對調整後 EBITDA 的預期保持不變，我們預計到 2025 年底，淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率約為 4.8 倍。隨著 Blackrod 相關現金流於 2026 年下半年開始產生，我們的去槓桿化將逐步推進，並在 2027 年持續成長。最後，董事會已批准派發每股 0.50 美元的季度股息，將於 10 月 15 日支付給 9 月 29 日登記在冊的股東。

I will now hand it back to Bevin for his closing remarks.

現在我將把發言權交還給貝文，請他作總結發言。

Thanks, Van. As we approach our one-year anniversary as a stand-alone company and look back at the priorities we initially set for our organization, I'm proud to say that the team is successfully delivering on our business objectives.

謝謝，範。在我們即將迎來獨立營運一周年之際，回顧我們最初為公司設定的各項優先事項，我自豪地說，團隊正在成功地實現我們的業務目標。

First, financially, we are on track to meet our near-term deleveraging targets and our dividend underpinned by our highly contracted cash flows remains an important component of our total return proposition.

首先，從財務角度來看，我們正朝著實現近期去槓桿化目標穩步前進，而我們高度緊縮的現金流所支撐的股息仍然是我們總回報方案的重要組成部分。

Second, operationally, we are safely advancing our integrity and reliability work to achieve a timely resolution to the corrective actions from Milepost 171 while also making a significant progress on the Blackrod Connection Project.

其次，在營運方面，我們正在安全地推進完整性和可靠性工作，以及時解決里程碑 171 中提出的糾正措施，同時在 Blackrod 連接專案上也取得了重大進展。

And finally, strategically, we are optimizing our business to enable future growth to support our customers by providing them solutions that leverage our existing infrastructure in North America's most strategic energy corridor.

最後，從戰略角度來看，我們正在優化業務，以實現未來的成長，並透過利用我們在北美最具戰略意義的能源走廊中的現有基礎設施為客戶提供解決方案來支援我們的客戶。

With that, I'll now ask the operator to open the line for questions.

接下來，我將請接線生開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Maurice Choy, RBC Capital Markets

（操作說明）莫里斯‧喬伊，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場

Just wanted to have two questions. The first one is a big picture question about the headlines that we still see about building more energy infrastructure in Canada, including crude oil pipeline. With the assumption that we will indeed see higher crude oil production in the coming years through the end of the decade. Specific to South Bow, can you speak to what you may be working on, how the timing of such projects could line up to some of the contracts that are expiring later at the start of the next decade. Just thoughts on what it means specifically to South Bow.

我想問兩個問題。第一個問題是關於加拿大能源基礎建設的宏觀層面，我們經常看到相關新聞報導，包括原油管道的建設。假設未來幾年，直到本十年末，原油產量確實會成長。具體到南弓地區，您能否談談您正在進行的工作，以及這些專案的進度安排如何與下個十年初即將到期的一些合約銜接？請您談談這些項目對南弓地區的具體意義。

Thank you, Maurice. It's Bevin. So our strategic corridor serves the strongest supply basin to the strongest demand markets for heavy oil. And as you've noticed, we anticipate to see that supply grow over the coming years. Quietly, over the last decade, we've seen heavy oil supply grow by 1 million barrels a day.

謝謝你，莫里斯。我是貝文。我們的策略走廊連接著供應最充足的盆地和需求最旺盛的重油市場。正如你所看到的，我們預計未來幾年供應量將會成長。過去十年間，我們已經悄悄見證了重油供應量每天增長100萬桶。

And with the start-up of the TMX pipeline, that served that market. And so over the next couple of years, we anticipate that, that supply will continue to grow. And by the end of perhaps or by early 2027, we'll be in a position again where we may see, again, constraint in the egress out of the basin given the strong demand for that heavy product.

隨著TMX輸油管的投產，該管道服務於該市場。因此，我們預計未來幾年，供應量將持續成長。到2027年底或年初，鑑於對這種重質產品的強勁需求，我們可能會再次面臨盆地出口受限的問題。

For South Bow, we remain committed to leveraging our pre-invested capital that we have, not only in our Alberta systems and -- but also in our Gulf Coast section. And we're looking to work with customers to find solutions to provide incremental capacity solutions for them over the next number of years.

對於南弓地區，我們將繼續致力於充分利用我們現有的預投資資金，不僅用於我們在阿爾伯塔省的系統，也用於我們在墨西哥灣沿岸地區的系統。我們期待與客戶合作，在未來幾年內為他們提供逐步提升的輸電能力解決方案。

Our initial focus, as we've highlighted in the earlier remarks was to leverage our Grand Rapids corridor to provide a solution for IPC to bring on that production in the near term. And we continue to see like opportunities, not only in Alberta, but throughout our system down through the Gulf Coast.

正如我們之前所強調的，我們最初的重點是利用大急流城走廊為IPC提供解決方案，使其能夠在短期內實現投產。我們持續看到類似的機遇，不僅在阿爾伯塔省，而且在整個系統內，直至墨西哥灣沿岸地區。

Understood. And if I could finish off with a question on the TSAs actually. Can you speak to what opportunities that may open up for you as you exit your final TSAs? And what, if anything, of that might be factored into the 2% to 3% EBITDA CAGR guidance that you have?

明白了。最後，我可否再問一個關於過渡服務協議（TSA）的問題？您能否談談，當您完成最後幾份TSA協議後，可能會有哪些機會？在這些機會中，哪些因素會影響您先前預測的2%至3%的EBITDA複合年增長率？

Yeah, Maurice. Getting off the TSAs is really allowing us to focus solely on our business. We accelerated moving on to our new ERP system that came with some extra manual processes, but now we're able to start rebuilding some of the workflows in our business. And so what I mean by that is we were having to operate under the processes of the previous systems until we switched over. So accelerating that just allows us to advance our business plans a little bit quicker.

是的，莫里斯。擺脫了TSA（運輸安全管理局）的束縛，我們確實可以專注於自身業務了。我們加快了新ERP系統的部署，雖然新系統帶來了一些額外的手動流程，但現在我們能夠開始重建一些業務工作流程。我的意思是，在切換系統之前，我們必須繼續沿用舊系統的流程。因此，加快部署速度讓我們能夠更快地推進業務計畫。

By the end of this quarter, we hope to be off the last of those major TSAs, and that's our SCADA systems. And that will likely get us then in a position that within one year since our spin date, we will be completely done with the TSAs and we'll have repositioned our business for that longer-term growth so that our teams can legitimately just focus on South Bow's business going forward as opposed to the spin activities. So it doesn't change our 2% to 3% CAGR growth outlook, but it allows our team to be much more focused just on our base business, which will then, in turn, I'm sure, find opportunities for us to continue to grow and optimize our solutions for our customers.

到本季末，我們希望能夠完成最後一項重大技術服務協議（TSA），即我們的SCADA系統。屆時，我們預計在分拆後一年內徹底完成所有TSA，並重新調整業務方向，以實現長期成長。這樣，我們的團隊就可以真正專注於South Bow的業務發展，而不是分拆相關的活動。因此，這不會改變我們2%至3%的複合年增長率預期，但它能讓我們的團隊更專注於核心業務，我相信，這反過來會為我們帶來更多發展機遇，並不斷優化我們為客戶提供的解決方案。

Burke Sansiviero, Wolfe Research

Burke Sansiviero，沃爾夫研究

Just one for me today. It seems like there was a little bit of a delay on the third-party root cause analysis. Is there anything in particular to call out on the timing lag? And can you just walk through any early takeaways in more detail on how you think the process might go from here?

今天我只有一個問題。第三方根本原因分析似乎有點延遲。關於時間上的延誤，有什麼特別需要指出的地方嗎？您能否更詳細地談談目前的初步結論，以及您認為接下來的流程會如何進行？

Yeah. I don't think there's too much of a delay as I see it. It's a dynamic process. We were probably -- it took us a little bit longer than anticipated at the very front end, actually getting our root cause failure analysis third party selected and having PHMSA approve that. So that was maybe a very few weeks at the very front.

是的。我覺得延誤不算太嚴重。這是一個動態過程。我們可能在前期階段花費的時間比預期稍長一些，例如選定根本原因故障分析的第三方機構並獲得PHMSA的批准。所以，前期階段可能只花了幾個星期。

But that process continues on. The lab has completed the majority of their work, although there's some follow-up things that they're working on with the RCFA provider. And I think that the way it's going to play out is we expect the analysis to be delivered in the September time frame.

但這個過程仍在繼續。實驗室已經完成了大部分工作，不過他們也正在與RCFA供應商合作處理一些後續事宜。我認為最終結果有望在九月交付。

And then as I mentioned, in parallel, we've got a lot of activities on the remedial side already ongoing. We have completed four in-line inspection runs. We've got two more scheduled. We've completed eight integrity digs. We've got four more scheduled.

正如我剛才提到的，同時，我們已經在進行許多補救措施。我們已經完成了四次管道內檢測，還有兩次正在安排中。我們已經完成了八次完整性挖掘，還有四次正在安排中。

And so that work will take shape through September. And then once we have that RCFA, we'll work with PHMSA in developing a more detailed remedial work plan, and we'll have that approved and then we'll continue that scope. But it's a little too early until we see the results of the RCFA to define exactly what that remedial work plan is going to look like and what the duration of it is going to be.

因此，這項工作將在九月逐步展開。一旦我們拿到根本原因分析報告（RCFA），我們將與管道和危險材料安全管理局（PHMSA）合作制定更詳細的補救工作計劃，並獲得批准後，我們將繼續進行這項工作。但在RCFA結果出來之前，現在確定具體的補救工作計劃及其持續時間還為時過早。

Robert Hope, Scotiabank

羅伯特‧霍普，加拿大豐業銀行

This is Jessica Hoyle on for Robert Hope. So just to start, regarding the comment in the MD&A that demand for uncommitted capacity is expected to remain low in the near term. With Enbridge's Mainline under apportionment, how do you envision uncommitted barrels returning to your system versus TMX?

這裡是傑西卡·霍伊爾，由代羅伯特·霍普發言。首先，關於管理層討論與分析報告中提到的短期內對未分配產能的需求預計仍將保持低迷。鑑於安橋主線目前處於配額分配階段，您認為未分配的原油將如何返回貴公司係統，與跨大西洋天然氣管道（TMX）相比又會如何？

Yeah. Thank you, Jessica. When we set guidance for 2025, that was ahead of a couple of other headwinds that showed up. But for 2025, with the start-up of TMX, we anticipated that we'd have lower demand for our walk-up spot capacity. And just to remind folks, we have 94% of our Keystone System is fully contracted and flowing, and we have to reserve 6% for spot capacity.

是的，謝謝你，潔西卡。我們制定2025年業績指引時，還未預料到之後會出現一些不利因素。但就2025年而言，隨著TMX的投產，我們預期對現貨容量的需求會下降。再次提醒大家，我們Keystone系統的容量已94%全部簽約並投入使用，我們還需要預留6%用於現貨容量。

So for that spot capacity, we remain extremely competitive as we serve the highest demand market in the Gulf Coast. And so as additional barrels as supply starts to grow and exceed available capacity, we believe that we provide the most competitive route to the strongest market.

因此，就現貨產能而言，我們仍然極具競爭力，因為我們服務於墨西哥灣沿岸需求最高的市場。隨著供應量增加並超過可用產能，我們相信我們能夠提供通往最強勁市場的最具競爭力的途徑。

And the most important thing that we manage is to improve the netback for our customers. And wherever the strongest netback is for those barrels is where those barrels will likely land. And so not only do we believe we provide the highest netback, we also are the only batch system, and we deliver the barrels faster than any other system to those strongest markets. So we haven't guided this year to anticipate much spot volumes coming on to our system.

我們最重要的目標是提升客戶的淨收益。而這些原油最終很可能流向淨收益最高的市場。因此，我們不僅相信我們能提供最高的淨收益，而且我們是唯一一家能夠以比其他任何系統都快的速度將原油運送到這些最熱門市場的批量交易系統。所以，我們今年並未預期會有大量現貨原油流入我們的系統。

Obviously, we're under a derate moving all 585,000 barrels a day of our contracted volumes out of the basin. And we anticipate that as we address the next steps of our integrity program that once we see supply later in '26 and '27, our goal is to have our system ready to accept those walk-up barrels.

顯然，由於我們目前正處於減產狀態，將合約規定的每日58.5萬桶原油全部運出盆地。我們預計，隨著我們推進完整性計畫的下一步工作，一旦在2026年下半年和2027年看到供應恢復，我們的目標是確保我們的系統能夠接收這些臨時運送的原油。

Thanks for that. And then can you update us on your initiatives to add contracts to the southern end of Keystone?

謝謝。您能否向我們介紹一下您在基斯通計畫南端增加合約的計畫進度？

Yeah. On the market-linked portion of the system, sure. So that really is at this point, just an ongoing part of our business is we just recently ran another open season that closed successfully entirely within our expectations and our plans. I expect that we're going to continue to run open seasons throughout the year as we work with our customers on exactly what they're looking for, for terms that they'll move domestic barrels from Cushing down into the Gulf Coast. And as you'll notice in our release that we've been keeping that segment of the system quite full.It's actually moved more barrels in the second quarter than in the first.

是的。就係統與市場掛鉤的部分而言，確實如此。目前，這確實是我們業務的一個持續組成部分。我們最近剛完成了一輪公開交易，並且完全按照我們的預期和計劃順利結束。我預計，我們將全年持續進行公開交易，與客戶合作，了解他們的具體需求，以及他們將國內原油從庫欣運往墨西哥灣沿岸的條款。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，我們一直保持著該系統的充足供應。事實上，第二季的原油運輸量比第一季還要多。

Sam Burwell, Jefferies

薩姆·伯韋爾，傑富瑞集團

Just curious how you'd characterize the organic and maybe inorganic growth opportunities for South Bow as things stand today? And any color on whether you see more attractive opportunities on the Canadian side versus the US side?

我很好奇您如何評價South Bow目前的有機成長和/或無機成長機會？您認為加拿大一側和美國一側哪個更有吸引力？

Yes, Sam, great question. Our focus as per our earlier remarks was to get through our first year, get off our TSAs, get in a position where we were lined out to be able to start pursuing that additional growth, both organically and inorganically. And so very happy that we've achieved our objectives on that front. When we initiated, though, it wasn't as if we were waiting to start building that hopper of opportunities. And on Richard's team, they've been maturing quite a large list of opportunities both organically and inorganically.

是的，山姆，問得好。正如我們之前所說，我們的重點是順利度過第一年，擺脫過渡服務協議（TSA），為後續的有機成長和併購做好準備。我們非常高興已經實現了這方面的目標。不過，我們一開始並沒有坐等機會的出現。理查德的團隊一直在積極推動大量的有機和併購機會。

But those take time to mature, and we intend to provide a bit more color at our Investor Day in November as to how those are progressing. What I would say is that we have noted a slight increase in balance of opportunities on the Canadian side of the border kind of balancing out now between the US and Canada, where earlier in our journey, we probably articulated that we anticipated the balance to be more US focused. And so that's great to see because we're here to serve our customers in both jurisdictions and find those solutions.

但這些項目需要時間才能成熟，我們計劃在11月的投資者日上更詳細地介紹它們的進度。我想說的是，我們注意到加拿大一側的機會略有增加，目前美加兩國之間的機會正在趨於平衡。此前，我們曾預期機會會更集中在美國。看到這種情況令人欣喜，因為我們致力於服務兩國客戶，並為他們找到解決方案。

So those -- I'm happy to say that are -- it takes -- you got to have a lot of irons in the fire to get certain ones to the finish line. And fortunately, for us, we're seeing that progress quite well.

所以，我很高興地說，要讓某些專案最終完成，需要同時進行許多工作。幸運的是，我們在這方面進展順利。

Okay. Great. And then sort of somewhat related to that, it looks like you're making great progress on the Blackrod project. But fair to say that the majority of that cash flow contribution in '26 and '27 goes towards deleveraging rather than growth CapEx?

好的，太好了。另外，似乎你們在Blackrod專案上取得了很大進展。但可以肯定的是，2026年和2027年的大部分現金流都用於去槓桿化，而不是增長性資本支出，對嗎？

So the way we think about growth CapEx, Sam, is our -- after covering off our interest and dividend obligations and tax, that leaves us roughly between USD100 million and USD130 million a year to allocate against growth. That kind of component stays consistent year-over-year and the projects that we've identified like Blackrod on average, to underwrite that 2% to 3% growth CAGR, we need to spend roughly that $100 million per year.

薩姆，我們對成長型資本支出的理解是這樣的：在支付利息、股利和稅金之後，我們每年大約還剩下1億到1.3億美元用於成長。這部分資金每年都保持穩定，而我們已經確定的項目，例如Blackrod，平均而言，為了實現2%到3%的複合年增長率，我們每年需要投入約1億美元。

Now how it gets spent, it's not going to be $100 million exactly every year. It's a bit lumpy. But we're just -- as we -- as those cash flows from Blackrod come on, the priority is to keep that consistent capitalization of the business and all the extra cash flow goes to our deleveraging targets to get to our -- within four years, get down to that 4 times level.

至於這筆錢具體怎麼花，不會每年都剛好是1億美元，金額會有些波動。但隨著Blackrod公司現金流的到來，我們的首要任務是保持公司資本的穩定，所有額外的現金流都將用於實現我們的去槓桿目標，爭取在四年內將槓桿率降至4倍。

Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo

Praneeth Satish，富國銀行

Just on cash taxes. So I think you mentioned cash taxes come down $50 million in 2025. I guess that's from $100 million, so roughly from $100 million to $50 million because of the one big beautiful bill. I guess how should we think about the cash tax trajectory in 2026 and beyond? Because if you're -- is it going to be at that $50 million run rate going into '26 if we assume the current pace of CapEx persists?

僅就現金稅而言。我想您提到過，2025 年現金稅將減少 5000 萬美元。我猜這是從 1 億美元減少到 5000 萬美元，主要是因為一項大型法案。那麼，我們該如何看待 2026 年及以後的現金稅走勢呢？因為如果假設目前的資本支出速度持續下去，到 2026 年，現金稅的年增率是否會維持在 5,000 萬美元？

And then if so, that's quite a sizable reduction going from $100 million down to $50 million basically gives you $50 million of extra free cash flow. So does that all go towards debt paydown? Or could that put you in a position to maybe increase your CapEx budget a bit and sanction more bolt-on projects?

如果真是這樣，那將是一個相當大的降幅，從1億美元降至5000萬美元，基本上就相當於多了5000萬美元的自由現金流。那麼，這筆錢會全部用於償還債務嗎？還是說，這筆錢可以用來稍微增加一些資本支出預算，並批准更多附加項目？

Thanks, Praneeth. It's Van here. I said $15 million, not $50 million. So yes, so it will be $15 million for the foreseeable future will be the reductions in current tax.

謝謝，普拉尼特。我是范。我說的是1500萬美元，不是5000萬美元。所以，是的，在可預見的未來，減稅額將為1500萬美元。

And that's just a flip between current tax and deferred tax. And we'll use that. That's just additional distributable cash flow that we'll use either for growth capital or ultimately deleveraging.

這只是當期稅和遞延稅之間的轉換。我們會利用這一點。這只是額外的可分配現金流，我們將用它來進行成長資本投入，或最終用於降低槓桿率。

Got you. Okay. Maybe I guess I misheard that. That makes sense. And then maybe just switching gears.

明白了。好的。可能是我聽錯了。這說得通。那或許我們可以換個話題。

So can you elaborate on kind of -- you mentioned you ran a metallurgical analysis or with a third party and what those findings revealed and whether just broadly, do those findings kind of suggest that the rupture was an isolated manufacturing or insulation issue rather than a systemic problem?

那麼，您能否詳細說明一下—您提到您與第三方進行了冶金分析，以及這些分析結果揭示了什麼？總的來說，這些結果是否表明破裂是一個孤立的製造或絕緣問題，而不是一個系統性問題？

And then just maybe broadly, like how does this study -- how does that metallurgical study differ from the third-party root cause analysis? And does that -- does the study -- does the metallurgical study kind of help narrow the scope of potential remedial actions that could arise from the RCFA?

然後，從更宏觀的角度來看，這項研究——這項冶金研究與第三方根本原因分析有何不同？這項研究—這項冶金研究是否有助於縮小根本原因分析可能產生的潛在補救措施的範圍？

Yeah. I think simply the lab report and analysis, which was also completed by a third party that was approved by PHMSA that ended up becoming a component of the root cause failure analysis and investigation. I just think like that's all the scientific lab work that they did to study the pipe and examine exactly what occurred. And what it did determine is that it was an axial crack on the long-seam, which propagated during operations until the failure occurred.

是的。我認為，這份實驗室報告和分析，是由一家經PHMSA（管道和危險材料安全管理局）認可的第三方機構完成的，最終成為了根本原因故障分析和調查的一部分。我認為，他們所做的所有科學實驗室工作，都是為了研究管道並準確地找出故障原因。最終確定的是，故障是由長焊縫上的軸向裂縫引起的，該裂縫在運行過程中不斷擴展，直到最終導致故障。

I think to provide much more detail than that, we're going to have to wait for the RCFA to be completed, which should be in the September time frame. But I would say that from everything that we've seen so far, we're not seeing evidence that this is a broad systemic issue that we're not going to be able to get our arms around through remedial actions that we're either completing now or that we add additionally once the RCFA is done or enhancements and additions that we make to our ongoing integrity program in the future.

我認為，要提供更多細節，我們需要等待根本原因分析報告（RCFA）完成，預計在九月左右。但就目前我們所了解的情況來看，我們沒有發現任何證據表明這是一個廣泛的系統性問題，我們無法透過正在實施的補救措施來解決，這些措施可能在RCFA完成後實施，也可能在未來對我們現有的誠信計劃進行改進和補充。

Aaron MacNeil, TD Cowen.

Aaron MacNeil，TD Cowen。

This is Aly on for Aaron MacNeil. Bevin, the recent Alliance settlement is top of mind for investors and this got us thinking about if other Canadian pipeline assets may experience some sort of negative toll revisions in the future. I can appreciate you can't directly link Alliance with Keystone, but I'd like to get your perspective on the differences with contracting beyond the end of the decade, do you think there could be a resetting of revenue and cost assumptions in the future?

這裡是Aly，由Aaron MacNeil發言。 Bevin，最近Alliance管線計畫的和解協議是投資人最為關注的問題，這也讓我們思考，未來其他加拿大管線資產是否也可能面臨類似的負面收費調整。我知道您不能將Alliance管道項目與Keystone管道項目直接聯繫起來，但我很想聽聽您對未來十年合約條款差異的看法。您認為未來收入和成本的預期值是否有可能重新調整？

Yeah. Thanks, Aly. With Keystone, we've negotiated market-driven contracts with renewal provisions and terms already approved by the CER and the FERC. So our market-driven approach which is really focused as per my earlier comments to provide the most competitive route to preserve the highest netback for our customers. And so we continue to see that our approach is actually quite a different circumstance than what some of our competitors' tolling mechanisms are.

是的，謝謝，艾莉。我們與 Keystone 簽訂了以市場為導向的合同，續約條款和細則已獲得加拿大能源監管機構 (CER) 和聯邦能源監管委員會 (FERC) 的批准。正如我之前所說，我們以市場為導向的策略旨在為客戶提供最具競爭力的方案，從而確保最高的淨收益。因此，我們發現，我們的方法與一些競爭對手的收費機制截然不同。

We feel quite confident that because we serve the strongest supply base and most directly to the strongest demand market, that we'll be in a very good position to renegotiate our contracts with our customers, really focused again, though, on providing that strong netback for them and a great return for our shareholders.

我們非常有信心，因為我們服務於最強大的供應基礎，並且最直接地服務於最強勁的需求市場，所以我們將處於非常有利的地位，可以與客戶重新談判合同，但我們將再次專注於為他們提供強勁的淨收益，並為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。

Thank you. This now concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Bevin for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想把時間交還給貝文，請他作總結發言。

Well, thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to connecting with you in November when we report our third quarter earnings and host our first Investor Day. Thank you all.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。我們期待在11月與各位再次相聚，屆時我們將發布第三季財報並舉辦首屆投資者日活動。謝謝大家。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。本次會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。