Synovus Financial Corp (SNV) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Synovus First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Cal Evans, Head of Investor Relations, to begin. So please go ahead when you're ready.

早上好，歡迎來到 Synovus 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫亞當，今天我將是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管卡爾埃文斯開始。所以請在準備好後繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. During today's call, we will reference the slides and press release that are available within the Investor Relations section of our website, synovus.com. Chairman, CEO and President, Kevin Blair, will begin the call. He will be followed by Jamie Gregory, Chief Financial Officer, and they will be available to answer your questions at the end of the call.

謝謝，早上好。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考我們網站 synovus.com 投資者關係部分提供的幻燈片和新聞稿。董事長、首席執行官兼總裁凱文布萊爾將開始電話會議。緊隨其後的是首席財務官傑米·格雷戈里 (Jamie Gregory)，他們將在電話會議結束時回答您的問題。

Our comments include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the actual results could vary materially. We list these factors that might cause results to differ materially in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website. We do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements because of new information, early developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law.

我們的評論包括前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們在我們的新聞稿和美國證券交易委員會備案文件中列出了這些可能導致結果出現重大差異的因素，這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。我們不承擔因新信息、早期發展或其他原因而更新任何前瞻性陳述的任何義務，法律可能要求的除外。

During the call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures related to the company's performance. You may see the reconciliation of these measures in the appendix to our presentation.

在電話會議期間，我們將參考與公司業績相關的非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在我們演示文稿的附錄中看到這些措施的協調。

And now Kevin Blair will provide an overview of the quarter.

現在凱文布萊爾將提供本季度的概述。

Thank you, Cal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This last quarter has proven to be a challenging operating environment for the banking industry. However, once again, we have seen the value and viability of Main Street banks like ours, who operate on a relationship-based client model.

謝謝你，卡爾。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。事實證明，最後一個季度對銀行業來說是一個充滿挑戰的經營環境。然而，我們再次看到了像我們這樣以基於關係的客戶模式運營的普通銀行的價值和生存能力。

Despite the media narrative that deposit outflows were rampant in regional banks, our core deposit balances were up in the first quarter and stable in the month of March, a testament to the value of our client base and our team members, who serve as trusted advisers in both good and challenging times. We have a long and proven track record of success. In recent years, we've taken a deliberate approach to expanding our business, diversifying our client base and leveraging technology and new solutions to improve the client experience and deepen our share of wallet.

儘管媒體報導區域性銀行存款外流猖獗，但我們的核心存款餘額在第一季度有所上升，並在 3 月份保持穩定，這證明了我們的客戶群和我們團隊成員的價值，他們是值得信賴的顧問在美好和充滿挑戰的時代。我們擁有悠久而可靠的成功記錄。近年來，我們採取了一種審慎的方式來擴展我們的業務，使我們的客戶群多樣化，並利用技術和新的解決方案來改善客戶體驗並加深我們的錢包份額。

But we have never lost sight of the value of building strong, trusted client relationships. Trust is a 2-way street and is often tested during times of stress. This last quarter serves as an added proof point of the importance of client loyalty and the engagement of team member base that was instrumental in efficiently executing a multifaceted response to the turbulence in our industry.

但我們從未忽視建立牢固、值得信賴的客戶關係的價值。信任是一條雙向的街道，經常在壓力大的時候受到考驗。最後一個季度進一步證明了客戶忠誠度和團隊成員參與的重要性，這有助於有效地對我們行業的動盪做出多方面的反應。

As a result of our team members' efforts, we're pleased to report strong financial results for the first quarter with net income up 19% year-over-year. We also received industry-wide recognition, including ranking #1 for customer satisfaction and trust in the Southeast according to J.D. Power's most recent U.S. Retail Banking Satisfaction Study and received 20 Greenwich Excellence and Best Brand Awards for small business and middle-market banking.

由於我們團隊成員的努力，我們很高興地報告第一季度的強勁財務業績，淨收入同比增長 19%。我們還獲得了全行業的認可，包括根據 J.D. Power 最近的美國零售銀行滿意度研究在東南部客戶滿意度和信任度排名第一，並獲得了 20 項針對小型企業和中型市場銀行業務的格林威治卓越獎和最佳品牌獎。

While we're proud of these results, we're mindful of the challenges and uncertainties but also the opportunities that lie ahead. The recent bank failures and industry-wide pressures on liquidity serve as a reminder of the importance of strong deposit production, maintaining a strong capital position, managing risk carefully and remaining vigilant in an ever-changing regulatory environment.

雖然我們為這些結果感到自豪，但我們注意到挑戰和不確定性以及擺在面前的機遇。最近的銀行倒閉和全行業的流動性壓力提醒人們，在不斷變化的監管環境中，強勁的存款生產、保持強大的資本狀況、謹慎管理風險和保持警惕的重要性。

We increased our core deposit production significantly this quarter but also fortified our liquidity position out of abundance of caution through the addition of broker deposits and FHLB borrowings. And we currently maintain over $25 billion in incremental contingent liquidity. Also, we continue to accrete capital consistent with our strategy over the last several quarters.

本季度我們大幅增加了核心存款產量，但出於謹慎考慮，我們還通過增加經紀人存款和 FHLB 借款來加強我們的流動性頭寸。我們目前保持超過 250 億美元的增量或有流動性。此外，我們在過去幾個季度繼續增持符合我們戰略的資本。

Finally, in the middle of the market upheaval seen in March, we kept our eye on the ball and continue to execute our strategic plan in a cost-effective manner that provides the maximum value for our shareholders. One noteworthy event was the regulatory approval of the Qualpay investment, which is a supporting component in the delivery of our banking as a service platform.

最後，在 3 月份的市場動盪中，我們保持警惕，繼續以具有成本效益的方式執行我們的戰略計劃，為我們的股東提供最大價值。一個值得注意的事件是 Qualpay 投資的監管批准，這是我們交付銀行即服務平台的支持組件。

This quarter's results reinforce the strength of our balance sheet with growth in deposits, cash balances as well as other contingent sources of liquidity. Moreover, our AOCI improved, net charge-offs remained at historically low levels, and we grew our tangible book value per share.

本季度的業績通過存款、現金餘額以及其他或有流動性來源的增長加強了我們資產負債表的實力。此外，我們的 AOCI 有所改善，淨註銷保持在歷史低位，我們的每股有形賬面價值有所增長。

Before we transition to the next slide and our financial highlights, I would like to thank our entire team for their tireless efforts since early March and thank our clients for the trust you continue to place in us.

在我們轉到下一張幻燈片和我們的財務亮點之前，我要感謝我們整個團隊自 3 月初以來的不懈努力，並感謝我們的客戶繼續對我們的信任。

Now let's move to Slide 4 for the quarterly financial highlights. Net income available to common shareholders and EPS were up 19% and $0.21, respectively, year-over-year. Strong earnings growth was supported by 23% year-over-year growth in NII and 19% growth from core client fee income. This revenue growth, combined with year-over-year positive operating leverage, led to strong performance metrics with ROATCE of 21.9%, return on average assets of 1.36% and an efficiency ratio of 52.3%.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4，了解季度財務亮點。可供普通股股東使用的淨收入和每股收益分別同比增長 19% 和 0.21 美元。強勁的盈利增長得益於 NII 同比增長 23% 和核心客戶費用收入增長 19%。這一收入增長，加上同比積極的經營槓桿，帶來了強勁的績效指標，ROATCE 為 21.9%，平均資產回報率為 1.36%，效率比為 52.3%。

Loans increased $329 million or 1% quarter-over-quarter. Core commercial loans again served as the primary driver of growth, offset by runoff of third-party consumer loans and a previously disclosed move of third-party loans to held for sale. Loan growth ex-third parties moved to held-for-sale was $753 million or 2% quarter-over-quarter.

貸款環比增加 3.29 億美元或 1%。核心商業貸款再次成為增長的主要驅動力，被第三方消費貸款的流失和先前披露的持有待售的第三方貸款所抵消。轉為持有待售的不包括第三方的貸款增長為 7.53 億美元，環比增長 2%。

Overall deposits grew 2% quarter-over-quarter, including growth in core deposits of $133 million. Core deposits remained stable through the month of March, and we saw minimal outflows related to the industry narratives.

整體存款環比增長 2%，其中核心存款增長 1.33 億美元。核心存款在 3 月份保持穩定，我們看到與行業敘事相關的資金流出最少。

Our deposit origination engine remains strong as we once again saw record levels of deposit production. Despite headwinds associated with noninterest-bearing deposit remixing and higher costs associated with core interest-bearing deposits, deposit rates have tracked reasonably in line with our expectations though current dynamics are presenting some upward pressures relative to our previously guided range.

我們的存款生成引擎依然強勁，因為我們再次看到創紀錄的存款生產水平。儘管存在與無息存款重組相關的逆風以及與核心有息存款相關的更高成本，但存款利率已合理地符合我們的預期，儘管當前動態相對於我們之前的指導範圍呈現出一些上行壓力。

Our underlying credit performance remains strong. And while we are seeing movement away from historically low levels, we have not seen a meaningful change in the underlying performance of our borrower base. Our positive portfolio performance is reflected in continued low levels of charge-offs as well as our other performance metrics such as delinquencies and nonperforming ratios.

我們的基礎信用表現依然強勁。雖然我們看到脫離歷史低位的走勢，但我們的借款人基礎的基本表現並未發生有意義的變化。我們積極的投資組合表現反映在持續低水平的沖銷以及我們的其他績效指標，如拖欠率和不良率。

The ACL ratio increased slightly this quarter predominantly due to higher weightings to downside economic scenarios. Lastly, CET1 grew to 9.76%, a result of strong organic capital generation and our decision to continue to retain and grow capital in this uncertain environment.

本季度 ACL 比率略有上升，這主要是由於下行經濟情景的權重增加。最後，CET1 增長至 9.76%，這是強勁的有機資本生成以及我們決定在這種不確定的環境中繼續保留和增加資本的結果。

Now I'll turn it over to Jamie to continue the overview of our quarterly results in greater detail. Jamie?

現在我將把它交給 Jamie，繼續更詳細地概述我們的季度業績。傑米？

Thank you, Kevin. I'd like to begin with loan growth as seen on Slide 5. Total loan balances ended the first quarter at $44 billion, reflecting growth of $329 million or $753 million when excluding the previously mentioned move to held-for-sale. Growth was again led by our commercial businesses with CRE and C&I growth of $346 million and $534 million, respectively.

謝謝你，凱文。我想從幻燈片 5 中看到的貸款增長開始。第一季度總貸款餘額為 440 億美元，反映出增長 3.29 億美元或 7.53 億美元，不包括前面提到的持有待售的舉措。增長再次由我們的商業業務引領，CRE 和 C&I 分別增長 3.46 億美元和 5.34 億美元。

Similar to last quarter, CRE growth was a function of draws related to existing commitments and low level of payoffs, while C&I growth was diversified across multiple industries and business lines. When examining our C&I utilization rate quarter-over-quarter, the increase is a function of higher utilization associated with newly originated credits rather than an increase from existing customers.

與上一季度類似，CRE 增長是與現有承諾和低迴報水平相關的吸引力的函數，而 C&I 增長在多個行業和業務線中呈現多樣化。在按季度檢查我們的 C&I 利用率時，增加是與新產生的信用相關的更高利用率的函數，而不是現有客戶的增加。

When looking out over a longer period, our increasing C&I utilization rate is a function of our changing lending mix, which has shifted to larger clients. We did not see any meaningful changes in utilization or emergency draws as a result of the recent market disruption.

從長遠來看，我們不斷提高的 C&I 利用率是我們不斷變化的貸款組合的一個函數，該組合已轉向更大的客戶。由於最近的市場混亂，我們沒有看到利用率或緊急提款有任何有意義的變化。

We are judiciously originating new credit to serve our core clients and also to gain market share in our most attractive commercial business lines. We are also mindful of ensuring new loans are originated at attractive risk-adjusted returns as shown through our spreads to index, which remain elevated relative to 2022 levels.

我們正在明智地發起新的信貸來服務我們的核心客戶，並在我們最具吸引力的商業業務領域獲得市場份額。我們還注意確保新貸款產生具有吸引力的風險調整後回報，正如我們與指數的利差所顯示的那樣，該回報率相對於 2022 年的水平仍處於較高水平。

Overall pipelines and activity remain muted due to lower transaction activity. And as Kevin will describe later, we expect the pace of core loan growth to decline as the year progresses.

由於交易活動減少，整體管道和活動保持低迷。正如凱文稍後將描述的那樣，我們預計核心貸款增長的步伐將隨著時間的推移而下降。

Turning to Slide 6. Core deposit balances grew $133 million quarter-over-quarter, and we saw a continued increase in deposit production with both commercial and consumer business lines contributing to the growth. While the current approach to monetary policy continued to pressure balances and the events of March created uncertainty in the banking environment, our relationship banking model proved to be resilient.

轉到幻燈片 6。核心存款餘額環比增長 1.33 億美元，我們看到存款生產持續增長，商業和消費者業務線都為增長做出了貢獻。儘管當前的貨幣政策方法繼續對收支平衡造成壓力，而且 3 月份的事件給銀行業環境帶來了不確定性，但事實證明，我們的關係銀行業務模式具有彈性。

Looking at the composition of the quarterly change in balances, noninterest-bearing deposits were down $997 million quarter-over-quarter, a byproduct of commercial seasonality, normal cash deployment and to a lesser extent, the continued pressures from the higher rate environment. The decline in M&A and increase in CDs were interrelated as consumers shifted excess liquidity between the 2 account types. Our increase in broker deposits was primarily the result of a conservative approach to proactively source additional funding late in the quarter, which I will touch on in a moment.

從季度餘額變化的構成來看，無息存款環比下降 9.97 億美元，這是商業季節性、正常現金配置以及較高利率環境持續壓力的副產品。隨著消費者在兩種賬戶類型之間轉移過剩流動性，併購的減少和存款證的增加是相互關聯的。我們經紀人存款的增加主要是由於採取保守的方法在本季度末主動尋找額外資金，我稍後會談到這一點。

As we look at deposit rates, our average cost of deposits increased 56 basis points in the first quarter to 1.44%, which equates to a cycle-to-date total deposit beta of approximately 30% through Q1. Our deposit costs and betas were impacted by the decline in DDA as well as anticipated pricing lags on core interest-bearing deposit costs.

當我們查看存款利率時，我們的平均存款成本在第一季度增加了 56 個基點，達到 1.44%，這相當於第一季度的周期至今總存款貝塔值約為 30%。我們的存款成本和貝塔值受到 DDA 下降以及核心計息存款成本預期定價滯後的影響。

To date, deposit pricing has generally evolved in a manner consistent with our expectations. However, recent remixing trends, along with an FOMC that appears to be biased to hold at or above 5%, will likely result in through the cycle betas, which track in the low 40% area.

迄今為止，存款定價的演變總體上符合我們的預期。然而，最近的混合趨勢，以及似乎傾向於保持在 5% 或以上的 FOMC 可能會導致貫穿週期的貝塔值，該貝塔值位於 40% 的低區域。

Moving to Slide 7. Taking a closer look into deposit balance trends within the quarter, as Kevin mentioned previously, our core deposit balances remained relatively stable throughout the month of March. However, we did take precautionary measures in early March and built up our cash balances through increased use of broker deposits and Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings.

轉到幻燈片 7。仔細研究本季度的存款餘額趨勢，正如凱文之前提到的，我們的核心存款餘額在整個 3 月份保持相對穩定。然而，我們確實在 3 月初採取了預防措施，並通過增加使用經紀人存款和聯邦住房貸款銀行的借款來建立我們的現金餘額。

To further augment contingent liquidity sources, we continue to proactively pledge additional collateral to the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve. And as of April 17, we currently maintain over $25 billion of contingent liquidity across a diverse set of sources, which includes immediately available funds as well as funds we expect to be available within short notice.

為了進一步增加或有流動性來源，我們繼續主動向聯邦住房貸款銀行和美聯儲提供額外的抵押品。截至 4 月 17 日，我們目前通過多種來源維持超過 250 億美元的或有流動性，其中包括立即可用的資金以及我們預計在短時間內可用的資金。

And as we flip to Slides 8 and 9, you can see we added additional details around the composition of our core deposit base, which highlights our relationship-centric portfolio and which supports the stability we experienced in recent weeks. Looking through the key characteristics of our deposits, you can see both the diversity of our balances across commercial and consumer client types as well as the long tenure of our relationships. And given the industry focus around uninsured deposits, I would simply highlight that over 70% of our deposits are either insured, collateralized or could be insured by switching to an ICS account to existing capacity.

當我們翻到幻燈片 8 和 9 時，您可以看到我們添加了有關核心存款基礎構成的更多詳細信息，這突出了我們以關係為中心的投資組合，並支持了我們最近幾週所經歷的穩定性。通過我們存款的主要特徵，您可以看到我們在商業和消費者客戶類型中餘額的多樣性以及我們關係的長期期限。鑑於行業關注的是未投保的存款，我只想強調，我們超過 70% 的存款要么已投保、有抵押，要么可以通過切換到現有能力的 ICS 賬戶來投保。

Now to Slide 10. Net interest income was $481 million in the first quarter, an increase of 23% versus the like quarter 1 year ago and a decline of 4% from Q4. The year-over-year increase was supported by the benefits of our asset-sensitive balance sheet as well as substantial loan growth over the last 12 months.

現在轉到幻燈片 10。第一季度淨利息收入為 4.81 億美元，與一年前同期相比增長 23%，與第四季度相比下降 4%。我們對資產敏感的資產負債表的好處以及過去 12 個月的貸款大幅增長支持了同比增長。

When looking at quarter-over-quarter, NII was negatively impacted by approximately $9 million associated with lower day count. The asset side of our balance sheet continued to benefit from both higher balances and rates. However, as I spoke previously, the cyclical lags in deposit pricing, combined with the remixing within our NIB deposit portfolio, served as a notable headwind for the quarter.

從環比來看，NII 受到與較低天數相關的約 900 萬美元的負面影響。我們資產負債表的資產方面繼續受益於較高的餘額和利率。然而，正如我之前所說，存款定價的周期性滯後，加上我們 NIB 存款組合的重新組合，成為本季度的一個顯著逆風。

Those same dynamics were evident as we look back at the margin for Q1 with higher cash balances also serving to weigh on NIM by approximately 2 basis points during the quarter. And as the environment has stabilized, we are working toward more normalized cash balances, and thus, the associated impact to NIM should reverse in the coming quarters.

當我們回顧第一季度的利潤率時，同樣的動態也很明顯，較高的現金餘額也在本季度對 NIM 造成了大約 2 個基點的壓力。隨著環境的穩定，我們正在努力實現更正常的現金餘額，因此，對 NIM 的相關影響應該會在未來幾個季度逆轉。

Looking forward to Q2, we expect NII to continue to be pressured. Specifically, we will see a full quarter impact of the deposit mix shift that occurred in the first quarter as well as a continued headwind resulting from deposit price lags. The combination of these headwinds is expected to lead to NII declines in Q2 followed by relative stability for the remainder of the year, consistent with our full year guidance.

展望Q2，我們預計NII 將繼續承壓。具體來說，我們將看到第一季度發生的存款組合轉變對整個季度的影響，以及存款價格滯後導致的持續逆風。這些不利因素的結合預計將導致第二季度 NII 下降，然後在今年剩餘時間相對穩定，這與我們的全年指引一致。

Slide 11 shows total adjusted noninterest revenue of $118 million, up $17 million from the previous quarter and up $11 million year-over-year. This quarter's adjusted fee income performance is the highest in recent history even accounting for the elevated mortgage environment we experienced in 2020 and 2021. The performance speaks to the investments we have made across our franchise with core client fee income, excluding mortgage, increasing 19% year-over-year.

幻燈片 11 顯示調整後的非利息總收入為 1.18 億美元，比上一季度增加 1700 萬美元，同比增加 1100 萬美元。本季度調整後的費用收入表現是近期歷史上最高的，即使考慮到我們在 2020 年和 2021 年經歷的更高的抵押貸款環境。這一表現說明了我們在我們的特許經營權中進行的投資，核心客戶費用收入（不包括抵押貸款）增長了 19%一年又一年。

Our wealth management franchise grew 22% year-over-year despite what continues to be a challenging equity market. The diversity of our wealth revenue streams, including short-term liquidity management products, continues to drive strong growth.

儘管股市仍然充滿挑戰，但我們的財富管理特許經營權同比增長了 22%。我們財富收入來源的多樣性，包括短期流動性管理產品，繼續推動強勁增長。

Capital markets also recognized its strongest quarter on record with a revenue of $14 million, 151% increase year-over-year. Syndication fees as well as interest rate management products drove the strong quarter, further signs that our commercial franchise continues to grow through enhanced product offerings and the expansion of our middle market line of business.

資本市場也確認了有記錄以來最強勁的季度，收入為 1400 萬美元，同比增長 151%。銀團費用和利率管理產品推動了強勁的季度，進一步表明我們的商業特許經營權通過增強產品供應和擴大我們的中間市場業務線而繼續增長。

As we look to the remainder of 2023, we do expect core client fee income to decline from Q1 levels as slower economic activity will impact capital markets fees and we also began to implement changes to our consumer checking products. Total non-interest revenue for Q1 was impacted by a $13 million onetime benefit associated with the regulatory approval of our Qualpay investment.

展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們確實預計核心客戶費用收入將從第一季度的水平下降，因為經濟活動放緩將影響資本市場費用，並且我們也開始對我們的消費者檢查產品進行更改。第一季度的非利息總收入受到與我們 Qualpay 投資的監管批准相關的 1300 萬美元一次性收益的影響。

Moving on to expenses. Slide 12 highlights total adjusted noninterest expense of $304 million, down $3 million from the prior quarter and up $25 million year-over-year, representing a 9% increase. As we look quarter-over-quarter, adjusted expenses were well managed. Increases in seasonal personnel expense and planned increases in FDIC and healthcare costs were offset by lower performance-related expenses and controlled core operating costs.

繼續討論費用。幻燈片 12 突出顯示調整後的非利息總支出為 3.04 億美元，比上一季度減少 300 萬美元，同比增加 2500 萬美元，增幅為 9%。從環比來看，調整後的費用得到了很好的管理。季節性人事費用的增加以及 FDIC 和醫療保健成本的計劃增加被較低的績效相關費用和受控的核心運營成本所抵消。

When segmenting our year-over-year increase in expenses, the growth is attributable to the 3 buckets we provided in our guidance for the year: first, new business initiatives such as (inaudible) and CIB; second, core operating expenses, including investments in and expansion of our workforce; and third, costs associated with our FDIC assessment rate and healthcare costs.

在細分我們的支出同比增長時，增長歸因於我們在今年的指導中提供的 3 個方面：首先，新業務計劃，例如（聽不清）和 CIB；第二，核心運營費用，包括對我們員工隊伍的投資和擴張；第三，與我們的 FDIC 評估率和醫療保健費用相關的費用。

Our first quarter adjusted efficiency ratio of 50.5% continues to highlight that these expense increases are supported through our growing revenue base. Total non-interest expense was negatively impacted by a $17 million loss associated with the move of third-party loans to held-for-sale.

我們第一季度調整後的效率比率為 50.5%，這繼續強調這些費用的增加是通過我們不斷增長的收入基礎得到支持的。非利息支出總額受到與第三方貸款轉為持有待售相關的 1700 萬美元損失的負面影響。

Moving to Slide 13 on credit quality. Overall, credit performance and the credit quality of our recent originations remained strong. The NPL ratio moved to 0.41%, net charge-off ratio to 0.17% and criticized and classified ratio finished the quarter at 2.47% of total loans.

轉到有關信用質量的幻燈片 13。總體而言，我們近期發起的信貸表現和信貸質量仍然強勁。不良貸款率升至 0.41%，淨沖銷率升至 0.17%，批評和分類比率在本季度末佔貸款總額的 2.47%。

In the first quarter, our ACL was $514 million or 1.17% of loans, a modest increase of 2 basis points from the fourth quarter. The deterioration in the forecasted economic scenarios in 2023 and 2024 negatively impacted the ACL ratio, offset by the continuing strong performance of the overall portfolio.

第一季度，我們的 ACL 為 5.14 億美元，佔貸款的 1.17%，比第四季度小幅增長 2 個基點。 2023 年和 2024 年預測經濟情景的惡化對 ACL 比率產生了負面影響，但被整體投資組合的持續強勁表現所抵消。

While we do expect additional pressure on credit metrics due to the economic environment, we continue to have confidence in the strength and quality of our portfolio. We continue to be vigilant while monitoring the more recession-sensitive components of our loan book. And we utilize rigorous underwriting parameters and exhaustive market and portfolio analysis, not only for these sector, but for the entirety of the loan portfolio.

雖然我們確實預計經濟環境會給信貸指標帶來額外壓力，但我們仍然對我們投資組合的實力和質量充滿信心。我們繼續保持警惕，同時監控我們貸款賬簿中對衰退更為敏感的部分。我們利用嚴格的承銷參數和詳盡的市場和投資組合分析，不僅針對這些部門，而且針對整個貸款組合。

Given the increased interest in the office sector, we have included additional color on our office portfolio in the appendix. What you will see is an office book with low maturity and lease rollover risks that is primarily medical, secured by modern properties and reflective of our footprint's superior market trends.

鑑於人們對辦公領域的興趣增加，我們在附錄中的辦公產品組合中加入了更多顏色。您將看到的是一本低成熟度和租賃展期風險的辦公書籍，主要用於醫療，由現代物業提供保障並反映我們足蹟的卓越市場趨勢。

As noted on Slide 14, the common equity Tier 1 ratio increased to 9.76%. Within the quarter, core earnings supported robust capital generation, which was more than sufficient to meet what continue to be solid core balance sheet growth. We had no share repurchase activity in the first quarter. And in light of the uncertain economic and regulatory environment, we believe that continuing to grow our CET1 ratio is prudent.

如幻燈片 14 所述，普通股一級資本比率增至 9.76%。在本季度內，核心收益支持了強勁的資本生成，這足以滿足持續穩定的核心資產負債表增長。我們在第一季度沒有進行股票回購活動。鑑於不確定的經濟和監管環境，我們認為繼續提高我們的 CET1 比率是審慎的做法。

As we've done for the last several quarters, in the near term, we will continue to focus on retaining capital generated through earnings to support our core growth while bolstering our balance sheet position. While not a metric that we manage to, given the current environment, it is worth acknowledging the improvement in our TCE ratio, which increased 28 basis points from Q4 and ended the quarter at 6.12%. Declining market rates benefited OCI associated with the AFS portfolio and hedges and continued growth in our primary capital levels from earnings retention also provided support.

正如我們在過去幾個季度所做的那樣，在短期內，我們將繼續專注於保留通過收益產生的資本，以支持我們的核心增長，同時鞏固我們的資產負債表狀況。雖然不是我們設法衡量的指標，但鑑於當前環境，值得承認我們的 TCE 比率有所改善，該比率比第四季度增加了 28 個基點，本季度末為 6.12%。市場利率下降有利於與 AFS 投資組合和對沖相關的 OCI，而我們的主要資本水平因收益保留而持續增長也提供了支持。

I'll now turn it back over to Kevin.

我現在將其轉回給凱文。

Thanks, Jamie. I'll now continue to our updated guidance for the quarter as shown on Slide 15. Given the ongoing volatility in the economic environment, we continue to utilize wider ranges for our full year 2023 guidance.

謝謝，傑米。我現在將繼續更新本季度的指導，如幻燈片 15 所示。鑑於經濟環境的持續波動，我們將繼續使用更廣泛的範圍來製定 2023 年全年指導。

We expect loan growth of 4% to 8%. This reduced range accounts for the acceleration of the rundown in our third-party portfolio as well as the diminishing demand associated with the economic environment. These effects will be partially offset by low payoff levels and growth from our newer business lines such as CIB and expansion in verticals such as commercial middle market.

我們預計貸款增長 4% 至 8%。這一縮小的範圍解釋了我們第三方投資組合加速減少以及與經濟環境相關的需求減少。這些影響將被低迴報水平和我們新業務線（如 CIB）的增長以及商業中間市場等垂直領域的擴張所部分抵消。

The adjusted revenue growth outlook of 4% to 7% aligns with an FOMC that reaches 5.25% in the second quarter. Changes to the midpoint of our previous guidance are a result of slightly lower loan growth expectations and deposit remixing as well as overall deposit betas, which, as Jamie mentioned, are expected to be in the low 40s area.

調整後的收入增長前景為 4% 至 7%，與第二季度達到 5.25% 的 FOMC 一致。我們先前指引中點的變化是由於貸款增長預期和存款重組以及整體存款貝塔略有下降，正如傑米提到的那樣，預計將處於 40 多歲的低水平。

Our expense outlook has been adjusted downward to 4% to 6% with efforts taken to better align with the new revenue guidance. We are prudently managing expenses in this environment while continuing to ensure we do not sacrifice critical investments that will support our long-term assess and shareholder value.

我們的支出前景已下調至 4% 至 6%，並努力更好地與新的收入指引保持一致。我們在這種環境下審慎地管理開支，同時繼續確保我們不會犧牲支持我們長期評估和股東價值的關鍵投資。

The result of our revised revenue and expense guidance is forecasted PPNR growth of 4% to 8%. Despite a more challenging environment, we are still committed to year-over-year PPNR growth and generating attractive returns for our shareholders.

我們修訂後的收入和支出指引的結果是預測 PPNR 增長 4% 至 8%。儘管環境更具挑戰性，但我們仍致力於實現 PPNR 同比增長，並為我們的股東創造有吸引力的回報。

Moving to capital. As we have previously communicated, we are targeting a CET1 ratio above our previous guidance of 9.25% to 9.75%. At this time, we believe it is prudent to build a larger capital buffer given the uncertain regulatory and economic environment.

搬到首都。正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，我們的目標是 CET1 比率高於我們之前 9.25% 至 9.75% 的指導。目前，鑑於監管和經濟環境的不確定性，我們認為建立更大的資本緩衝是謹慎的做法。

I believe the forecast represents the resilience and adaptability of our business model as well as the power of building strong and loyal client relationships. Our strong financial results this quarter reflect the hard work and dedication of our team as well as our commitment to supporting our clients and communities through these difficult times.

我相信該預測代表了我們商業模式的彈性和適應性，以及建立強大和忠誠的客戶關係的力量。本季度我們強勁的財務業績反映了我們團隊的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，以及我們在這些困難時期支持我們的客戶和社區的承諾。

Looking ahead, as we see many opportunities for profitable growth and success while continuing to improve our overall risk profile through increased liquidity and capital and well-managed credit costs. Our strategic investments, coupled with our client-centric approach, will continue to differentiate us from our competitors and position us for long-term success. At the same time, as a Main Street bank, we remain committed to being a trusted partner to our clients, providing them with the tools and resources they need to achieve their financial goals.

展望未來，我們看到了許多盈利增長和成功的機會，同時通過增加流動性和資本以及管理良好的信貸成本繼續改善我們的整體風險狀況。我們的戰略投資，加上我們以客戶為中心的方法，將繼續使我們從競爭對手中脫穎而出，並使我們獲得長期成功。與此同時，作為一家大眾銀行，我們始終致力於成為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴，為他們提供實現財務目標所需的工具和資源。

And now operator, let's open the call for Q&A.

現在接線員，讓我們打開問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Brad Milsaps from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Brad Milsaps。

Maybe I did want to start with credit. I appreciate all the details. I was curious, I know you guys are constantly running sort of internal stress on different pieces of the CRE book. Just kind of curious how that's evolved maybe over the last 90 days kind of given all that's transpired.

也許我確實想從信用開始。我很欣賞所有的細節。我很好奇，我知道你們一直在對 CRE 書中的不同部分施加某種內部壓力。只是有點好奇在過去的 90 天裡它是如何演變的，考慮到所發生的一切。

Also, I think can hear you note that maybe only about a little less than 15% of the office book rolls over this year. Would that sort of hold for the rest of the CRE book? And would just be curious for any color on conversations you are having as these loans mature with borrowers kind of what you're doing to shore them up and just kind of how those conversations are going as we think about credit going forward?

另外，我想可以聽到你注意到今年可能只有不到 15% 的辦公書籍滾動。這種情況適用於 CRE 書的其餘部分嗎？當這些貸款到期時，您會好奇與借款人進行的對話有什麼色彩嗎？您正在做些什麼來支持他們，以及在我們考慮信貸向前發展時這些對話的進展情況？

Yes. Brad, this is Bob. I'll comment or 2, and Jamie and Kevin can certainly kick in. But from a CRE -- from an overall perspective, the match up on the maturity risk, if you will, is similar. And in terms of you've got some duration there. There's probably 3 years plus for the most part.

是的。布拉德，這是鮑勃。我會發表評論或 2，Jamie 和 Kevin 肯定可以參與進來。但是從 CRE 來看——從整體的角度來看，如果你願意的話，成熟風險的匹配是相似的。就你在那裡有一些持續時間而言。大多數情況下可能有 3 年以上。

I do want to make sure that I touch on office for you because I know that's what a lot of folks are looking at, but just a couple of points. Number one, in addition to the data we're showing, when you think about office and the spot metrics, today, they're very clean. Average size of that office portfolio loan is less than $10 million, little to no charge-offs in -- low nonaccruals, and even the criticized classified levels today would be in the 5% range.

我確實想確保我為您談到辦公室，因為我知道這是很多人都在看的東西，但只有幾點。第一，除了我們展示的數據之外，當你想到辦公室和現場指標時，今天它們非常乾淨。該辦公室投資組合貸款的平均規模不到 1000 萬美元，幾乎沒有沖銷——非應計項目低，即使是今天受到批評的分類水平也會在 5% 的範圍內。

Now with that said, obviously, we're doing a deep dive into that portfolio. We've looked at approximately 70% coverage of loans -- all loans greater than $7.5 million. And the result of that, which gives us sort of a watch list, if you will, of credits of somewhere around 10% to 15% of the office book that we would have some level of concern about and I would say some level of future concern about.

話雖如此，顯然，我們正在深入研究該投資組合。我們查看了大約 70% 的貸款覆蓋率——所有超過 750 萬美元的貸款。結果是，如果你願意的話，它給了我們一份觀察名單，其中大約有 10% 到 15% 的辦公室書籍的信用，我們會有某種程度的關注，我會說某種程度的未來擔心關於。

These loans are still performing, still got good commitment by the sponsors, et cetera. So when you start narrowing it down, it's a fairly small quantifiable percentage of the loan book -- of the office book that we think potentially we'll need to think through as time goes on.

這些貸款仍在發揮作用，仍然得到發起人的良好承諾，等等。因此，當你開始縮小範圍時，它在貸款賬簿中所佔的可量化百分比相當小——我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們可能需要仔細考慮的辦公室賬簿。

Now again, that's strictly property performance based on potential lease expiration, et cetera. So from our perspective, even when you dig back into the portfolio, the potential problems in terms of amounts are fairly manageable. So I did want to get that out.

再一次，這完全是基於潛在租約到期等的財產表現。因此，從我們的角度來看，即使您重新深入研究投資組合，金額方面的潛在問題也是相當可控的。所以我確實想把它弄出來。

We aren't seeing a whole lot of softness in other asset classes, Brad. Multifamily continues to be a good asset class, albeit with rent rates certainly beginning to move back, but they were so hot for a year or 2. They've got some cushion there. And that's market-specific.

布拉德，我們在其他資產類別中並沒有看到太多疲軟。多戶住宅仍然是一個很好的資產類別，儘管租金率肯定開始回落，但它們在一兩年內如此火爆。它們在那裡有一些緩衝。這是特定於市場的。

Warehouse, we feel good about as well there, and retail seems to be holding fine. And you know the hotel story as we ran through the pandemic there, and they seem to be improving. So all in all, our CRE book is in good shape. The office story will play out over several quarters, but we feel like we're well positioned for it.

倉庫，我們在那裡也感覺很好，零售似乎也很好。當我們在那裡經歷大流行時，你知道酒店的故事，他們似乎正在改善。所以總而言之，我們的 CRE 書狀態良好。辦公室的故事將持續幾個季度，但我們覺得我們已經做好了準備。

And Brad, the only thing I would add to that is, Bob talked about our internal evaluation, but you also have to go back and look at the Southeast. I mean, the Southeast continues to perform very well. We believe you've seen some distress in certain asset classes, but it's been very geographical.

布拉德，我唯一要補充的是，鮑勃談到了我們的內部評估，但你也必須回頭看看東南部。我的意思是，東南地區繼續表現出色。我們相信您已經在某些資產類別中看到了一些困境，但這是非常地域性的。

If you look at the Southeast, we continue to have rent growth higher than the national average. When you look at specifically our office portfolio, our criticized and classified ratios are far lower than what some others have shared. Part of that is due to the fact that we have 50% of our book in medical office. And the remaining portion of that traditional office book is newer properties and markets that in the Southeast haven't seen the same work-at-home impact.

如果你看看東南部，我們的租金增長繼續高於全國平均水平。當您具體查看我們的辦公室組合時，我們的批評和機密比率遠低於其他一些人分享的比率。部分原因是我們有 50% 的書在醫療辦公室。傳統辦公簿的其餘部分是在東南部尚未看到相同的在家工作影響的較新的物業和市場。

So in general, our update is that although we expect credit metrics to continue to move off of all-time historical lows, we're not seeing anything systemically, including office, that gives us greater concerns. On the C&I front, we look at our cash inflows every month and every quarter. We haven't seen any overall deterioration of any specific industries.

因此，總的來說，我們的最新消息是，儘管我們預計信用指標將繼續脫離歷史低點，但我們沒有看到任何系統性因素（包括辦公室）讓我們更加擔憂。在 C&I 方面，我們每個月和每個季度都會查看我們的現金流入。我們沒有看到任何特定行業的整體惡化。

Any NPL inflows that we've had at this point have been onesie, twosies. And so we still remain cautiously optimistic. And to your point, Bob and his team are trying to look at every different way they can and ring-fence anything that gives us any concerns.

在這一點上，我們所擁有的任何不良貸款流入都是一個，兩個。因此，我們仍然保持謹慎樂觀。就你的觀點而言，Bob 和他的團隊正在嘗試以各種不同的方式審視他們可以採取的各種方式，並屏蔽任何讓我們擔心的事情。

Yes. And Brad, I'll just jump in from the allowance perspective. And everything Bob -- as Bob mentioned, we've done a deep dive on all these portfolios and looked at all loans of any real size and all of that is embedded in our allowance calculation. And so as Bob mentioned, the 10% to 15%, the watch list on our nonmedical office, that is included in the allowance calculation.

是的。布拉德，我將從津貼的角度出發。鮑勃的一切——正如鮑勃提到的那樣，我們對所有這些投資組合進行了深入研究，並研究了任何實際規模的所有貸款，所有這些都包含在我們的津貼計算中。正如 Bob 提到的，10% 到 15%，我們非醫療辦公室的觀察名單，包括在津貼計算中。

And what you've seen is on aggregate, the quality of the loan portfolio has led to a reduced life of loan loss estimate for the past couple of quarters. And so the aggregate portfolio has increased. In the first quarter, we did increase the allowance based on the CRE portfolio by a little less than $20 million, and that's embedded in the move from the 1.15% to the 1.17% ACL ratio.

你所看到的是總體而言，貸款組合的質量導致過去幾個季度的貸款損失估計壽命縮短。因此，總投資組合增加了。在第一季度，我們確實將基於 CRE 投資組合的津貼增加了略低於 2000 萬美元，這包含在從 1.15% 到 1.17% 的 ACL 比率中。

Got it. And I guess this is my follow-up. You guys covered a lot there. But you mentioned as you move up in loan size, do you also feel like you're moving up sort of in quality of borrower? Can you just kind of give us a little sense of kind of maybe some of the drivers behind the loan growth? I think you mentioned a couple of times that are seeing maybe larger exposures but certainly in line with -- as you become a larger bank, that's pretty natural. Just any curious on any additional color there.

知道了。我想這是我的後續行動。你們在那裡涵蓋了很多。但是你提到隨著貸款規模的增加，你是否也覺得借款人的質量也在上升？你能給我們一些關於貸款增長背後的一些驅動因素的感覺嗎？我想你提到過幾次可能會看到更大的風險敞口，但肯定符合——當你成為一家更大的銀行時，這是很自然的。只是對那裡的任何其他顏色感到好奇。

Yes. So it's -- we've talked about it in terms of how we continue to grow our balance sheet actually allows us to derisk the overall balance sheet. And it's just based on the fact that as we're booking more middle-market credits as we moved into corporate and investment bank, we're more investment graded credits.

是的。所以它 - 我們已經討論過我們如何繼續增長我們的資產負債表實際上允許我們降低整體資產負債表的風險。它只是基於這樣一個事實，即當我們進入公司和投資銀行時，我們正在預訂更多的中間市場信貸，我們更多的是投資級信貸。

And so when you look at it from an expected loss through our provisioning or just through our risk rating process, it would suggest that the production that we're putting on today and we put on in previous quarters is, in effect, reducing the overall expected loss of the portfolio, moving away from, as you suggested, some of these smaller credits that have a little more volatility and less cushions of protection.

因此，當您通過我們的準備金或僅通過我們的風險評級過程從預期損失來看時，這表明我們今天和前幾個季度的生產實際上減少了整體投資組合的預期損失，正如你所建議的那樣，遠離一些波動性更大、保護緩衝更少的小額信貸。

And so this quarter, our loan growth, obviously, on the CRE front was more of a function of fund ups on our construction lines on multifamily. But on the C&I side, most of the growth came from middle market, which was about 50% of the growth, which is for us, we think right down the middle credits that are going to perform at a very high level.

因此，本季度，我們在 CRE 方面的貸款增長顯然更多地是我們多戶建築線路上的資金增加的功能。但在 C&I 方面，大部分增長來自中間市場，約佔增長的 50%，這對我們來說，我們認為中間信貸將在非常高的水平上表現。

So that's been our plan in terms of growth as we've shifted to some of these new specialties and moved up market that not only are we getting good growth, but we're also derisking the portfolio at the same time.

因此，這一直是我們在增長方面的計劃，因為我們已經轉向其中一些新的專業並提升市場，我們不僅獲得了良好的增長，而且同時也在降低投資組合的風險。

The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess on NII, Jamie, just wanted to follow up on your comments around, I guess, a decline in 2Q and then relative stability in the back half. Just talk to us in terms of dynamics that you expect from there around, one, the pace of deposit repricing if, let's say, if the Fed is done after the May hike, like how do you expect deposit costs and betas -- at what point do they stop rising? And remind us of just the asset repricing that you expect back half into next year.

我想在 NII 上，Jamie，只是想跟進你的評論，我想，第二季度的下降，然後是後半部分的相對穩定。就你期望的動態與我們談談，第一，如果美聯儲在 5 月加息後完成，那麼存款重新定價的速度，比如你如何看待存款成本和貝塔 - 在什麼點他們停止上升？並提醒我們，您預計明年將重新定價一半。

Yes. Ebrahim, as we look forward, we do expect to see continued increases in deposit costs as we kind of get to the end of this tightening cycle. When we think about the timing, just like what we said in January, we do expect the first quarter to be our highest quarterly increase in total deposit costs.

是的。易卜拉欣，正如我們所期待的，我們確實希望看到存款成本持續增加，因為我們有點接近這個緊縮週期的尾聲。當我們考慮時機時，就像我們在 1 月份所說的那樣，我們確實預計第一季度將是我們總存款成本的最高季度增幅。

And when you look at that, you can look at the months of December to March where our costs increased 55 basis points. But thinking about those monthly increases, which we think is probably a better way to look at a little higher frequency data, prior to March, we saw a steady trend that was right in line with what we had modeled and what we discussed in January.

當您查看時，您可以查看 12 月至 3 月的月份，我們的成本增加了 55 個基點。但考慮到這些月度增長，我們認為這可能是查看 3 月份之前頻率更高的數據的更好方法，我們看到了一個穩定的趨勢，這與我們在 1 月份的模型和討論的內容一致。

We saw monthly deposit cost increasing and those increases peaking in November and December. And then in January and February, we saw steady declines in the rate of increase of total deposit costs along the lines of what we expected.

我們看到每月存款成本增加，並且這些增加在 11 月和 12 月達到頂峰。然後在 1 月和 2 月，我們看到總存款成本的增長率按照我們的預期穩步下降。

Now clearly, March was a little bit of a different story when we saw the disruption. And so we did see an increase there. That was actually kind of similar to what we saw in November and December. But the movements that we saw the rollover from year-end into early Q1 gives us confidence in our modeling and our expectations going forward.

現在很明顯，當我們看到中斷時，3 月的情況有所不同。所以我們確實看到了增長。這實際上有點類似於我們在 11 月和 12 月看到的情況。但是，我們看到從年底到第一季度初的轉變讓我們對我們的模型和我們未來的期望充滿信心。

And so we do believe that we will start to see that trend resume from here of slower increases -- monthly increases in total deposit costs, but the March disruption does shift our through-the-cycle beta higher into the low 40s. And so as we look at the second quarter, we do expect to see total deposit cost increase a little less than 50 basis points. That's less than the first quarter and about a 30 basis point increase from the month of March numbers.

因此，我們確實相信，我們將開始看到這種趨勢從這裡開始恢復增長放緩——總存款成本的月度增長，但 3 月份的中斷確實將我們的整個週期 beta 推高至 40 多歲的低點。因此，當我們看第二季度時，我們確實預計總存款成本增加略低於 50 個基點。這低於第一季度，比 3 月份的數字高出約 30 個基點。

And so that's what we expect to see in the near term. Then beyond that, we'll continue to see some marginal increase in deposit costs. But in the second half, the rate of increase declined pretty precipitously.

這就是我們期望在短期內看到的。除此之外，我們將繼續看到存款成本略有增加。但在下半年，增長率急劇下降。

On the asset side of the balance sheet, in the first quarter, you saw our loan beta was a little more than 60%. We expect that to continue. As we mentioned in our forecast, we expect another 25 basis points on the Fed, and we would expect somewhere in the low 60s as far as loan beta on that.

在資產負債表的資產方面，第一季度，我們的貸款貝塔值略高於 60%。我們希望這種情況繼續下去。正如我們在預測中提到的那樣，我們預計美聯儲還會再降息 25 個基點，我們預計貸款貝塔值會在 60 左右左右。

And then progressing through the year, we think that the pressures from increased deposit costs and the benefits from fixed rate asset repricing will be fairly well balanced in the second half of the year. And then beyond that, we think there will be just the benefit of fixed rate asset repricing moving forward, which will be a tailwind to both NII and the margin.

然後在今年的進展中，我們認為存款成本增加的壓力和固定利率資產重新定價的好處將在下半年得到很好的平衡。除此之外，我們認為固定利率資產重新定價只會帶來好處，這將對 NII 和保證金都有好處。

Got it. And just a separate question, so you gave great detail on CRE. I'm just wondering maybe, Bob or Kevin, anywhere else within just the loan book where you're seeing any signs of stress or pain? And as you think about the back half of the year and the cumulative impact from the Fed hikes, like where do you see the weakness within your loan portfolio where you expect to be drivers of delinquencies and losses?

知道了。只是一個單獨的問題，所以您提供了有關 CRE 的詳細信息。我只是想知道，鮑勃或凱文，在貸款簿中的其他任何地方，您是否看到任何壓力或痛苦的跡象？當您考慮今年下半年和美聯儲加息的累積影響時，例如您認為貸款組合中的弱點在哪裡，您預計這些弱點將成為拖欠和損失的驅動因素？

Yes, EB, this is Bob. I'll start. Nothing specific. I wouldn't call out a specific industry or category right now. We've certainly been watching our small business portfolio as we mentioned in quarters past, and we've seen some marginal negative migration there. So we continue to watch that.

是的，EB，這是 Bob。我會開始。沒有什麼具體的。我現在不會說出特定的行業或類別。正如我們在過去幾個季度提到的那樣，我們當然一直在關注我們的小型企業投資組合，並且我們已經看到那裡出現了一些邊際負面遷移。所以我們繼續觀察。

On the C&I front, no industry specific that I would call out. Certainly, we're doing a similar deep dive into our leverage book, which is fairly small, like we did in our CRE book. So I don't think we're really seeing any specific industries in terms of C&I.

在 C&I 方面，沒有我會提到的特定行業。當然，我們正在對我們的槓桿書進行類似的深入研究，這本書相當小，就像我們在 CRE 書中所做的那樣。因此，我認為我們在 C&I 方面並沒有真正看到任何特定行業。

In terms of CRE in addition to office, obviously, multifamily is very market specific. We've got a deep market analytics team that does an awful lot of analysis. And that's probably going to be more market-specific, but we still have a lot of strong economic sort of tailwinds of migration and lack of housing supply, particularly in our markets that are still kind of providing a little buoyance to the multifamily book.

就辦公以外的 CRE 而言，顯然，多戶住宅是非常特定於市場的。我們有一個深入的市場分析團隊，可以進行大量分析。這可能會更加針對特定市場，但我們仍然有很多強勁的移民經濟順風和住房供應不足，特別是在我們的市場中，這些市場仍然為多戶家庭提供了一點動力。

So I don't see it there. I think it will be sporadic and dependent upon those companies that are still struggling with input cost and labor costs.

所以我在那裡看不到它。我認為這將是零星的，取決於那些仍在為投入成本和勞動力成本而苦苦掙扎的公司。

And EB -- great answer, Bob. I just -- it's interesting when we look at any of the troubled credits that we've seen in the last several quarters, what to me is the only commonality is most of these businesses had challenges prior to the pandemic. And in many ways, some of the cash around PPP and the ability to manage through the last several years kind of bought them time, but as they come out of the other side, they're returning to some tough business models or they're having some challenges.

EB——很好的答案，鮑勃。我只是 - 有趣的是，當我們查看過去幾個季度中看到的任何陷入困境的信用時，對我來說唯一的共同點是這些企業中的大多數在大流行之前都面臨著挑戰。在很多方面，圍繞 PPP 的一些現金和過去幾年的管理能力為他們贏得了時間，但當他們從另一邊走出來時，他們又回到了一些艱難的商業模式，或者他們正在有一些挑戰。

And so instead of new credit issues arising, I think what we're seeing are some of these companies that struggled in the past that were able to make it with the additional liquidity are back to struggling again. That seems like that's a common thing.

因此，我認為我們所看到的不是出現新的信貸問題，而是其中一些過去曾苦苦掙扎的公司，它們能夠憑藉額外的流動性而重新陷入困境。這似乎是一件很常見的事情。

The next question is from Steve Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Alexopoulos。

This is Anthony Elian on for Steve. My first question on Slide 9, you provided a great detail into the composition of the deposit base. I'm curious, early on in March, what were the conversations like behind the scenes with your largest uninsured depositors? After the 2 bank failures in March, was there much concern or panic on these depositors after what they saw happened to SVB and Signature?

這是史蒂夫的安東尼埃利安。我在幻燈片 9 上的第一個問題，您提供了有關存款基礎構成的詳細信息。我很好奇，在 3 月初，與你們最大的未投保儲戶的幕後對話是怎樣的？在 3 月份 2 家銀行倒閉後，這些儲戶在看到 SVB 和 Signature 發生的事情后，是否有很多擔憂或恐慌？

Well, Tony, it's hard to understand or gauge what their panic was. I think there was a lot of false narratives happening around the industry trying to understand whether this was a bank crisis or whether there were 3 banks that they had an individual crisis. And I don't think that those 3 banks that failed constitute an overall bank crisis, but those conversations led to a lot of calls to our bankers and in many situations are outreach to some of our largest depositors.

好吧，托尼，很難理解或衡量他們的恐慌是什麼。我認為整個行業發生了很多錯誤的敘述，試圖了解這是否是一場銀行危機，或者是否有 3 家銀行遭遇了個別危機。我不認為那 3 家倒閉的銀行構成了一場全面的銀行危機，但這些談話導致我們的銀行家接到了很多電話，而且在許多情況下，我們還聯繫了一些最大的儲戶。

And the conversations, we're trying to understand how that impacted us. And from our standpoint, our first goal was to explain that we are very different than the 3 institutions that failed. We have a very diverse granular deposit base, as you can see in the deck. We're not homogeneous as it relates to where we were funding the balance sheet.

通過對話，我們試圖了解這對我們有何影響。從我們的角度來看，我們的首要目標是解釋我們與失敗的 3 家機構截然不同。正如您在甲板上看到的那樣，我們擁有非常多樣化的顆粒存款基礎。我們不是同質的，因為它與我們為資產負債表提供資金的地方有關。

And so having those conversations and most importantly, the long-term relationships that we've had with these clients, you can see that not only is our average tenure for our top 100 depositors 20 years. But if you look at the entire book, the dollar weighted average is 18 years.

因此，通過這些對話，最重要的是，我們與這些客戶建立的長期關係，你可以看到，我們前 100 名存款人的平均任期不僅是 20 年。但如果你看整本書，美元加權平均數是 18 年。

So we've developed long-term relationships built on trust. And so when we had those discussions, we were able to keep our deposits on balance sheet. We do have a product that you've heard about, the insured cash sweep product that we've offered prior to this little [many] crisis. And we had a whopping total of about 60 clients for less than $500 million move into that product.

因此，我們建立了建立在信任基礎上的長期關係。因此，當我們進行這些討論時，我們能夠將存款保留在資產負債表上。我們確實有一種您聽說過的產品，即我們在這場 [許多] 小危機之前提供的受保現金清掃產品。我們總共有大約 60 個客戶以不到 5 億美元的價格購買了該產品。

So I think that serves as a testament that people didn't feel compel that they had to move their deposits into that sweep arrangement and that they were very comfortable with Synovus continuing to safeguard their liquidity.

因此，我認為這證明人們並不覺得有必要將他們的存款轉移到那種清掃安排中，並且他們對 Synovus 繼續保護他們的流動性感到非常滿意。

But in many ways, if there were good, fruitful discussions. And if I had to gauge how much we lost from that, I'd say less than $100 million in deposits.

但在很多方面，如果有好的、富有成果的討論。如果我必須衡量我們從中損失了多少，我會說不到 1 億美元的存款。

That's good color. And a follow-up to that. I mean, on an overall basis, do you feel like the situation has stabilized and it's back to business now, right? I mean we've seen a handful of regional banks report earnings so far this week. And we haven't seen the widespread deposit outflows to money center banks or elsewhere that the media or others have portrayed.

這個顏色好以及後續行動。我的意思是，總體而言，您是否覺得情況已經穩定並且現在恢復正常，對嗎？我的意思是，本周到目前為止，我們已經看到少數地區性銀行報告了收益。而且我們還沒有看到媒體或其他人所描述的大範圍存款流向貨幣中心銀行或其他地方。

Yes. I think the questions around liquidity are abating, and the questions around profitability are becoming front and center. So what we have to do going forward is make sure that as we continue to grow our assets out of the balance sheet is that we're conscious of not just growing deposit but what -- deposits but also what's the cost of that funding.

是的。我認為圍繞流動性的問題正在減弱，而圍繞盈利能力的問題正成為前沿和中心。因此，我們今後要做的是確保，隨著我們繼續從資產負債表中增加資產，我們不僅要意識到增加存款，還要注意存款，還要注意資金成本。

And so that's where we're all focused. And I think that's where you'll see the industry turn their attention. And I think you'll also see more conversations around balance sheet optimization. Are there asset classes there that are not self-funded that now in this environment with a prolonged higher rate interest rate environment that aren't returning the levels of capital to hurdle rates that you require?

這就是我們都關注的地方。我認為這就是您會看到業界關注的地方。而且我認為您還會看到更多關於資產負債表優化的對話。在這種長期利率較高的環境下，是否存在不能自籌資金的資產類別，無法將資本水平恢復到您需要的門檻利率？

So I think it will turn more to profitability and balance sheet optimization and less about liquidity and concerns of losing liquidity. Now I will tell you that I think that there -- as you've heard from other banks, there's still a question mark in terms of how much shift will continue to occur from NIB and interest-bearing.

所以我認為它將更多地轉向盈利能力和資產負債表優化，而不是流動性和失去流動性的擔憂。現在我會告訴你，我認為 - 正如你從其他銀行那裡聽到的那樣，關於 NIB 和生息將繼續發生多少轉變，仍然存在一個問號。

We all can try to model that. What we're excited about is that we continue to be very successful in our treasury and payment solutions area. Our production was up 40% again in the first quarter versus the first quarter of last year. And I think that's about the best vehicle we have to be able to preserve and grow noninterest-bearing deposits, and that's where we're focused.

我們都可以嘗試模仿它。我們感到興奮的是，我們在資金和支付解決方案領域繼續取得非常成功。與去年第一季度相比，我們第一季度的產量再次增長了 40%。我認為這是我們必須能夠保存和增長無息存款的最佳工具，而這正是我們關注的重點。

The next question is from Brady Gailey from KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。

I wanted to start with fee income. I heard Jamie talk about fees being down on a linked-quarter basis in 2Q. Is that based off the reported fee income? Or is that adjusting for that $13 million onetimer? And in fees, I know you mentioned some changes in your consumer checking fees, so service charges. Anyway to quantify the impact that, that could have on fee income?

我想從費用收入開始。我聽到 Jamie 談到第二季度的費用在環比基礎上有所下降。這是基於報告的費用收入嗎？還是針對 1300 萬美元的一次性產品進行調整？在費用方面，我知道你提到了消費者檢查費的一些變化，比如服務費。無論如何量化這可能對費用收入產生的影響？

Yes, Brady. The decline that we expect in the second quarter is based on the adjusted number. And it's really a function of a slowing economy and slower loan growth leading to less capital markets fees. The first quarter was a big success for us in capital market fees, a record quarter of $14 million. That's something that as we head into a likely recession that we don't expect to be sustainable.

是的，布雷迪。我們預計第二季度的下降是基於調整後的數字。這實際上是經濟放緩和貸款增長放緩導致資本市場費用減少的結果。第一季度我們在資本市場費用方面取得了巨大成功，達到創紀錄的 1400 萬美元。當我們進入可能的衰退時，我們預計這種情況不會持續。

Now clearly, it's a big success because this is an area where we've been investing for some period of time in our commercial businesses. And so we love to see that. But there's just going to be a headwind on growth in that area just due to the economy. And so that's what's largely driving the decline.

現在很明顯，這是一個巨大的成功，因為這是我們在商業業務中投資了一段時間的領域。所以我們喜歡看到這一點。但是，由於經濟的原因，該地區的增長將會遇到阻力。因此，這在很大程度上推動了下降。

I would put the second quarter NIR adjusted in somewhere between $105 and $108 is probably a good range. And that's how we are thinking about that. You're right that as we look forward longer term, changes in our deposit offerings will lead to a headwind on NIR growth. One way to think about that would be approximately $10 million annualized, but that's something that the timing is still to be determined, and we'll give more updates on that as we proceed through the year.

我會把第二季度的 NIR 調整在 105 美元到 108 美元之間可能是一個不錯的範圍。這就是我們考慮的方式。你是對的，從長遠來看，我們存款產品的變化將導致 NIR 增長的逆風。考慮這一點的一種方法是每年大約 1000 萬美元，但時間仍有待確定，我們將在今年進行時提供更多更新。

All right. That's helpful. And then I know a lot has changed from yours Investor Day last year. But I know during that Investor Day, you laid out some targets for 2024 of a 1.3% to 1.4% ROA and a 16% to 17% ROTCE. I think The Street has you close to a 1% next year. So any comment or update on how you're thinking about those kind of profitability goals given today's backdrop?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我知道你去年的投資者日發生了很多變化。但我知道在那個投資者日期間，您為 2024 年制定了 1.3% 至 1.4% 的 ROA 和 16% 至 17% 的 ROTCE 的一些目標。我認為 The Street 明年會讓你接近 1%。那麼，在今天的背景下，您對這些盈利目標的看法有何評論或更新？

I'll let Jamie talk about kind of the numbers, Brady, but I'll take you back to that February Investor Day. And when we put those out there, we said, look, these absolute numbers that we'll share with you are based on today's rates and based on what we see over the next 3 years. And so as of that period, those numbers were not only accurate for our forecast, but they are also accurate in that we felt that they would be top quartile.

我會讓傑米談論一些數字，布雷迪，但我會帶你回到二月份的投資者日。當我們把它們放在那裡時，我們說，看，我們將與您分享的這些絕對數字是基於今天的利率和我們在未來 3 年所看到的。因此，在那個時期，這些數字不僅對我們的預測是準確的，而且它們也是準確的，因為我們認為它們將是前四分之一。

But what we left with that day was, look, we can't predict the future. But what we can say is that our focus is going to be continuing to generate improvements in our financial performance that will allow us to be top quartile. If rates are higher, and that means that the returns need to be higher and efficiency ratio may be lower, then so be it.

但那天我們留下的是，看，我們無法預測未來。但我們可以說的是，我們的重點將是繼續改善我們的財務業績，這將使我們成為前四分之一。如果利率更高，這意味著回報需要更高，效率比可能更低，那就這樣吧。

But our ultimate goal there was to just say, relatively speaking, we want to be in the top (inaudible), and the numbers will play out as they play out in that time frame. Based on what we're dealing with now, that may mean that you reset the bar, and you look at some different numbers. But Jamie, how would you think about the actual forecast?

但我們的最終目標只是說，相對而言，我們希望處於領先地位（聽不清），並且數字將在那個時間範圍內發揮作用。根據我們現在正在處理的情況，這可能意味著您重新設置標準，並且您會看到一些不同的數字。但是傑米，你如何看待實際的預測？

It's a very interesting thought exercise because when we laid out our multiyear outlook on February 8 of last year, we had Fed funds approaching 3% 3 years out. And ironically, if you were to look at the forward curve today, Fed funds is approaching 3% 3 years out but in a very different way.

這是一個非常有趣的思考練習，因為當我們在去年 2 月 8 日制定多年展望時，我們的聯邦基金利率在 3 年後接近 3%。具有諷刺意味的是，如果你今天看一下遠期曲線，聯邦基金將在 3 年後接近 3%，但方式截然不同。

And so as Kevin mentioned, our performance metrics really are to be top quartile versus peers. And we will pivot as we need given the environment. And so while the -- while we may end up back at 3% Fed funds in the medium to longer term, we believe that we have a franchise model here that's poised to remain and be top quartile long term. And so we will react to that.

正如 Kevin 提到的那樣，我們的績效指標與同行相比確實處於前四分之一。我們將根據環境的需要進行調整。因此，雖然 - 雖然我們可能會在中長期內最終回到 3% 的聯邦基金，但我們相信我們這裡有一個特許經營模式，該模式有望保持並長期處於前四分之一。因此，我們將對此做出反應。

Our priorities right now are ensuring that we are positioned to take care of our clients here in the Southeast because we still believe that the opportunity here is unique and big. And so we are positioning our balance sheet for that, positioning our team for that. And we believe that we will win in that regard.

我們現在的首要任務是確保我們有能力照顧我們在東南部的客戶，因為我們仍然相信這裡的機會是獨特而巨大的。因此，我們正在為此定位我們的資產負債表，為此定位我們的團隊。我們相信我們會在這方面取得勝利。

But we're also convicted on making sure that we do it in a prudent manner and defending the balance sheet. And you see that in our capital strategy, you see it in our liquidity strategies, and you see it in our NII sensitivity hedging, just making sure that we protect the income statement in various outlooks. And so that's our strategy. We're committed to long-term top quartile, and we will adjust as needed.

但我們也因確保我們以審慎的方式做這件事並捍衛資產負債表而被定罪。你會在我們的資本策略中看到它，你會在我們的流動性策略中看到它，你會在我們的 NII 敏感性對沖中看到它，只是確保我們在各種前景中保護損益表。這就是我們的策略。我們致力於長期排名前四分之一，我們將根據需要進行調整。

The next question comes from Michael Rose from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Michael Rose。

Just wanted to get a sense for your willingness to maybe actually accelerate some of your hiring efforts and some of the business build-outs that you've obviously laid out at Investor Day. There's a bank the other day that basically said the hiring opportunities are greater than they could remember in recent times, just given that lenders seem to be kind of idled as demand slows and bank pull back.

只是想了解您是否願意真正加快您在投資者日顯然已經佈局的一些招聘工作和一些業務建設。前幾天有一家銀行基本上說招聘機會比他們最近記憶中的要多，只是考慮到隨著需求放緩和銀行撤回，貸方似乎有點閒置。

Just wanted to get an update on maybe some of those initiatives. And would you actually consider actually accelerating some of that at the expense of near-term profits but to position yourselves better on kind of the other side of whatever sort of cycle we're going to have?

只是想了解其中一些舉措的最新情況。你真的會考慮以犧牲近期利潤為代價來加速其中的一些，而是讓自己更好地站在我們將要擁有的任何週期的另一邊嗎？

Yes, Michael, obviously, there's disruption in the marketplace, and that presents opportunities, and that hasn't changed over the last several years. And you can see from our rest of year guidance, we're continuing to grow expenses. And we think that, that will, given our revenue guidance, still allow us to present positive operating leverage. But we want to make sure that we're opportunistic.

是的，邁克爾，很明顯，市場出現了混亂，這帶來了機會，而且在過去幾年中並沒有改變。你可以從我們今年剩餘時間的指導中看到，我們正在繼續增加開支。我們認為，鑑於我們的收入指引，這仍將使我們能夠呈現積極的經營槓桿。但我們要確保我們是機會主義的。

We're leaning in. We believe that in times of crisis or in times like this is when share shifts hands, and we want to make sure that we take advantage of that. And that means that we're out there still attracting top talent. We've been adding middle market talent. We have 3 additional CIB team members that will be joining us in the next several months when they're finished with their garden leave.

我們正在向前邁進。我們相信在危機時期或像現在這樣的時期是股票易手的時候，我們希望確保我們利用這一點。這意味著我們仍在吸引頂尖人才。我們一直在增加中間市場人才。我們有 3 名額外的 CIB 團隊成員，他們將在未來幾個月結束花園假期後加入我們。

Across our commercial segment, we're adding talent in our high-growth markets. And the only thing that's changing there is we want to make sure that we're putting a higher bar on the individuals that we're hiring. And I would love to be able to do just not individuals, but to bring over teams.

在我們的商業部門，我們正在為我們的高增長市場增加人才。唯一改變的是我們要確保我們對我們僱用的個人設置更高的標準。而且我希望能夠做的不僅僅是個人，而是帶來團隊。

But when we look at the payback period of a new relationship manager or a new private wealth adviser, we want to make sure that given that there is probably an economic downturn in our near future that we are expecting higher levels of talent and that, that NPV is not going to be impacted because we're bringing in actually better talent, and they're going to perform within our expectations. So yes, we do think that's an opportunity. You won't see us trying to shrink our way to prosperity. We think there's a tremendous opportunity in the Southeast, and we think talent is a big piece of that.

但是，當我們審視新的客戶經理或新的私人財富顧問的投資回收期時，我們要確保鑑於我們在不久的將來可能會出現經濟衰退，我們期望更高水平的人才，而且， NPV 不會受到影響，因為我們正在引進更好的人才，而且他們的表現將符合我們的預期。所以是的，我們確實認為這是一個機會。你不會看到我們試圖縮小我們通往繁榮的道路。我們認為東南部有巨大的機會，我們認為人才是其中的重要組成部分。

Helpful. And then maybe just one on the loan growth guidance. Is the change really just a function of moving the consumer loans to HFS? I'm sorry if I missed that, but just wanted to get a sense for kind of what the delta is because it does seem like we have good kind of momentum, utilization rates up, kind of, et cetera.

有幫助。然後可能只是關於貸款增長指導的一個。這種變化真的只是將消費貸款轉移到 HFS 的功能嗎？如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但只是想了解一下三角洲是什麼，因為看起來我們確實有很好的勢頭，利用率上升，等等。

Obviously, Michael, that's $450 million we moved over there. So that's a component of it. But we also have seen softening on the demand side. Our pipelines are off about 25% when you look at it across the board. And that's us being prudent on one side where CRE pipelines were off 95% versus last year. The growth that we're seeing there, as I mentioned earlier, really fund ups of our construction lines but not a lot of new production.

顯然，邁克爾，那是我們搬到那裡的 4.5 億美元。所以這是它的一個組成部分。但我們也看到需求方面出現疲軟。當您全面查看時，我們的管道關閉了大約 25%。這就是我們在 CRE 管道與去年相比下降 95% 的一方面保持謹慎。正如我之前提到的，我們在那裡看到的增長確實為我們的建築生產線提供了資金，但並沒有為很多新產品提供資金。

So that the pipelines are declining. We still think that we'll be able to grow in that mid-single-digit level just because we have so many business units that are fairly new, whether it's expansion of our middle market team where we've increased our RMs 50% over the last couple of years, our CIB, which grew another $40 million this past quarter. So the difference for us is that on the C&I front, we have a lot of new initiatives and new talent that will continue to produce despite the fact that overall pipelines are diminishing a bit.

因此，管道正在下降。我們仍然認為我們能夠在中等個位數水平上增長只是因為我們有這麼多相當新的業務部門，無論是擴大我們的中間市場團隊，我們已經將我們的 RM 增加了 50% 以上過去幾年，我們的 CIB 在上個季度又增長了 4000 萬美元。因此，對我們而言，不同之處在於，在 C&I 方面，我們有許多新舉措和新人才將繼續產生，儘管事實上整體管道正在減少。

The next question comes from Jared Shaw from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Jared Shaw。

Maybe just when we look at the update for higher levels of CET1 and the higher liquidity that's on the balance sheet, how long should we be thinking you want to retain higher liquidity and capital? I know you said a lot of it is due to the current immediacy of the crisis. But should we think that as we go into '24 were more normalized levels of liquidity and that, that CET1 ratio could come back down below 10%? Or do you feel this could be a new normal for a little longer?

也許就在我們看到更高水平的 CET1 和資產負債表上更高的流動性的更新時，我們應該認為你想保留更高的流動性和資本多長時間？我知道你說過很多是由於當前危機的緊迫性。但是我們是否應該認為，隨著我們進入 24 世紀，流動性水平更加正常化，並且 CET1 比率可能會回落至 10% 以下？或者你覺得這可能會成為一種新常態並持續一段時間？

We think about capital ratios is largely dependent on the environment. And so it depends on the stability of the outlook and where the economy is, where the banking industry is. There are a lot of components that are outside of the risk inherent on our balance sheet. And so that's how we think about it.

我們認為資本比率在很大程度上取決於環境。因此，這取決於前景的穩定性以及經濟狀況和銀行業狀況。有很多組成部分不在我們資產負債表的固有風險範圍內。這就是我們的想法。

We think that getting to 10% or higher in the near term makes sense. And it's probably safe to think about that as the next year or so, and then we're constantly reassessing. But that's generally how we think about it, and that's not a new strategy for us.

我們認為在短期內達到 10% 或更高是有道理的。在明年左右考慮這一點可能是安全的，然後我們會不斷重新評估。但這通常是我們的想法，這對我們來說並不是一個新戰略。

The last quarter that our deposits -- that our dollars of CET1 declined was the third quarter of 2019. And since then, every quarter, we have accreted dollars of CET1. We've accreted $1.4 billion of CET1 over that time period. And we've deployed that to clients here in the Southeast.

我們的存款的最後一個季度——我們的 CET1 美元下降是在 2019 年第三季度。從那以後，每個季度，我們都增加了 CET1 美元。在那段時間裡，我們增加了 14 億美元的 CET1。我們已經將其部署到東南部的客戶。

And so as we think about that strategy, it's really nothing new for us. And that's our intent going forward. We grew CET1 13 basis points this quarter. We expect it to continue growing that ratio as we get to the 10% area.

因此，當我們考慮該策略時，它對我們來說真的不是什麼新鮮事。這就是我們前進的意圖。本季度我們將 CET1 提高了 13 個基點。我們預計，當我們達到 10% 的區域時，該比率將繼續增長。

But longer term, when we look at our stress testing, our modeling in a severe adverse scenario, there's nothing that points us to the magical 10% number. Our math would tell us that you could run with a CET1 lower than that. And so we'll assess that where we are, where the economic outlook, where peers are as we go forward. But right now, we're comfortable accreting up to the 10%. We think that's the prudent thing to do.

但從長遠來看，當我們查看我們的壓力測試、我們在嚴重不利情況下的建模時，沒有任何跡象表明我們會看到神奇的 10% 數字。我們的數學會告訴我們，您可以使用低於此的 CET1 來運行。因此，我們將評估我們所處的位置，經濟前景的位置，以及我們前進的同行所在的位置。但現在，我們很樂意增加 10%。我們認為這是謹慎的做法。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, you mentioned that you used a higher weighting on a more adverse scenario for CECL. If you hadn't done that, would we have actually seen either dollars of ACL decline or a ratio decline? And I guess what is that weighting to the more adverse scenario now?

好的。然後作為後續行動，您提到您在 CECL 的更不利情況下使用了更高的權重。如果您沒有那樣做，我們真的會看到 ACL 美元下降或比率下降嗎？我想現在更不利的情況的權重是多少？

Yes. So when you -- you're right that we did adjust our weightings. You can see that in our table on Slide 17, the weighting change. Basically, our outlook right now continues to align to that slow growth scenario. And it's really low to no growth on average for the next couple of years.

是的。所以當你 - 你是對的，我們確實調整了我們的權重。您可以在幻燈片 17 的表格中看到，權重發生了變化。基本上，我們現在的前景繼續與這種緩慢增長的情況保持一致。在接下來的幾年裡，它的平均增長率真的很低甚至沒有。

And so that's the -- basically the base case scenario when you take the weightings. Consensus baseline would be positive to the allowance. But we're really aligned to a slow to no-growth scenario for the allowance.

這就是 - 基本上是您進行加權時的基本情況。共識基線將對津貼有利。但我們確實同意津貼增長緩慢甚至沒有增長的情況。

The next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons from D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kevin Fitzsimmons。戴維森。

I just -- I know we've had a few questions on credit just more general and top level, but I just wanted to -- if this has been addressed already, I apologize, but there was a linked quarter increase in nonperformers, and it looks like also special mention and substandard. And I'm just wondering if there's any kind of common thread to that? Is that just more what's happening in the environment? Is it more of a proactive stance?

我只是 - 我知道我們有一些關於信用的問題，只是更一般和最高級別，但我只是想 - 如果這個問題已經得到解決，我很抱歉，但不良表現相關的季度有所增加，並且它看起來也特別值得一提和不合標準。我只是想知道這是否有任何共同點？這只是環境中發生的更多事情嗎？是不是更主動一點？

I know, Kevin, earlier, you mentioned about some of the problem credits are ones that were challenged before and just have had some lifelines thrown out from the government, and now they're still challenged. But just a little more color on -- any color on what segments are driving that deterioration that we saw linked quarter.

我知道，凱文，早些時候，你提到的一些問題學分是以前受到挑戰的，只是政府放棄了一些生命線，現在他們仍然受到挑戰。但只是更多的顏色 - 哪些細分市場的任何顏色正在推動我們看到的相關季度的惡化。

Kevin, this is Bob. Thanks for the question. As far as NPLs go moved up to 41 basis points, it's really a handful of credits that we already had rated that kind of moved into nonaccrual status at the same time. Again, I would point to the level of criticized and classified accruing loans behind that as being fairly manageable with no specific industry or concentration, if you will, geographically speaking to speak of.

凱文，這是鮑勃。謝謝你的問題。就不良貸款上升至 41 個基點而言，我們已經評級的少數信貸同時進入了非應計狀態。再一次，我會指出其背後的批評和分類應計貸款的水平是相當可控的，沒有特定的行業或集中度，如果你願意的話，從地理上來說。

So a few credits that were a little bit larger, and then you had just normal migration due to the economic environment and sort of our smaller business and consumer books. So when you do the math on that, throw in the larger ones, it pushes you up, still 41 basis points about where we were a few quarters back. So not significantly higher, but certainly migrating up.

所以一些稍微大一點的學分，然後由於經濟環境和我們較小的企業和消費者書籍，你只是正常遷移。因此，當你對此進行數學計算時，將較大的因素投入其中，它會推高你，仍然比我們幾個季度前的水平高 41 個基點。所以不會明顯更高，但肯定會向上遷移。

As we had mentioned, the bias is still probably for negative migration although it's certainly within our expectations. In terms of charge-offs, I kind of felt like that's what you're asking as we were going forward. Those will eventually -- they will work their way back up to some level of what you may call normalization.

正如我們所提到的，儘管這肯定在我們的預期之內，但仍然可能存在負遷移的偏見。在沖銷方面，我覺得這就是你在我們前進時所要求的。這些最終會——它們會以自己的方式恢復到你所謂的正常化的某個水平。

I tend to think that if you go back pre-pandemic, and we were in the 25 to 30 basis point range, if you will, that probably feels okay, although it's certainly subject to quarterly swings, particularly if you have some larger credits. But all in all, that's what's driving the slight increase in those numbers, Kevin.

我傾向於認為，如果你回到大流行前，我們處於 25 到 30 個基點的範圍內，如果你願意的話，那可能感覺還不錯，儘管它肯定會受到季度波動的影響，特別是如果你有一些更大的信貸。但總而言之，這就是推動這些數字略有增加的原因，凱文。

Okay. Great. Great. One quick follow-up. Just there was a lot of focus a number of weeks ago on underlying losses within held to maturity. You guys have been pretty exclusively, I think, exclusively available for sale. And just maybe if you can touch on the trade-offs in that approach and whether that may -- whether that could or would change going forward.

好的。偉大的。偉大的。一個快速跟進。就在幾週前，人們非常關注持有至到期的潛在損失。我認為，你們非常專一，專供出售。也許你可以談談這種方法中的權衡，以及它是否可以——是否可以或將會改變未來。

You're right. We're 100% available for sale. As we thought about the use of held to maturity, we believe that it really had more negatives than positives where it limits your ability to trade the securities, and all you get is a change in the accounting treatment. And so there's no economic benefit outside of the appearance of AOCI on the balance sheet and in tangible common equity.

你說得對。我們 100% 可供出售。當我們考慮使用持有至到期時，我們認為它確實有更多的負面影響而不是正面影響，因為它限制了您交易證券的能力，而您得到的只是會計處理的變化。因此，除了 AOCI 在資產負債表和有形普通股中的出現之外，沒有任何經濟利益。

And so we did not choose or elect to put any securities in held to maturity. It has been an interesting time over the past quarter as this has become a focus and looking at AOCI and comparing the unrealized losses with and without held to maturity.

因此，我們沒有選擇或選擇將任何證券持有至到期。在過去的一個季度裡，這是一段有趣的時光，因為這已成為關注焦點，並著眼於 AOCI 並比較持有和未持有到期的未實現損失。

For us, as we reflect on the use of it, we still believe that it is an accounting treatment that doesn't really change anything, but it does provide a limitation on your ability to manage your balance sheet. And so it's not that attractive.

對我們來說，當我們反思它的使用時，我們仍然認為它是一種不會真正改變任何東西的會計處理方法，但它確實限制了您管理資產負債表的能力。所以它沒有那麼有吸引力。

When it becomes attractive would be if there was a change in the regulatory environment, where you had to include AOCI in regulatory capital ratios. And if that happened and held to maturity securities were excluded from that, then that would materially change the view around the benefits of using the held to maturity designation.

當它變得有吸引力時，如果監管環境發生變化，你必須將 AOCI 納入監管資本比率。如果發生這種情況並將持有至到期證券排除在外，那麼這將大大改變人們對使用持有至到期指定的好處的看法。

Clearly, there's no clarity around that -- what will happen there and how that will play out. But that's generally how we think about it. But to date, we're very comfortable with where we are with our securities portfolio, very comfortable with the unrealized losses in that portfolio. You saw some improvement quarter-on-quarter in that, and we will wait to see if there are any changes on the regulatory side to the treatment of AOCI.

顯然，目前還不清楚——那裡會發生什麼以及結果如何。但這通常是我們的想法。但迄今為止，我們對我們的證券投資組合所處的位置非常滿意，對該投資組合中的未實現損失非常滿意。您在這方面看到了季度環比的改善，我們將拭目以待監管方面對 AOCI 的處理是否有任何變化。

But Jamie, do you think that given all that attention that was on held to maturity, you think they'd ever make that change of doing it for AOCI but not for held to maturity?

但是 Jamie，你認為考慮到對持有至成熟的所有關注，你認為他們會做出改變，為 AOCI 而不是持有至成熟嗎？

That's beyond me. I can't opine on the direction they would go with this. To me, logically, if your view is that you want to look at long duration risk on the balance sheet and you want to focus in on securities, then you should probably include everything. But I can't opine on what the regulations will be in the future.

那超出了我的範圍。我不能對他們的發展方向發表意見。對我來說，從邏輯上講，如果你的觀點是你想查看資產負債表上的長期風險並且你想專注於證券，那麼你可能應該包括所有內容。但我不能對未來的規定發表意見。

And Kevin, you know this, but that's a very surgical way to think about it because nobody is marking the deposit side on the other side of the ledger. So when you look at it from an EVE perspective, you could argue that you're only looking at one component of it. And if you mark the liabilities, you'd be in a very different position.

凱文，你知道這一點，但這是一種非常外科手術式的思考方式，因為沒有人在賬本的另一邊標記存款方。所以當你從 EVE 的角度來看它時，你可能會爭辯說你只是在看它的一個組成部分。如果你標記負債，你就會處於一個非常不同的位置。

The next question comes from Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

下一個問題來自 Janney Montgomery Scott 的 Christopher Marinac。

Kevin, I was just going to ask you the same point about marketing deposits. My other question was on the FHLB increase. Was that due to the overall line or did you have to pledge more collateral this quarter?

凱文，我正想問你關於營銷存款的同樣觀點。我的另一個問題是關於 FHLB 的增加。這是由於整體線還是您必須在本季度提供更多抵押品？

That is due to pledging more collateral as we've always felt comfortable with our liquidity profile and contingent liquidity sources. But this -- in the past month, there have been new metrics that people, that the press and analysts have focused in on like contingent liquidity relative to uninsured deposits and ratios like that.

這是由於質押了更多的抵押品，因為我們一直對我們的流動性狀況和或有流動性來源感到滿意。但是，在過去的一個月裡，出現了人們、媒體和分析師關注的新指標，比如相對於未投保存款的或有流動性，以及類似的比率。

And so we spent a lot of time over the past few weeks looking at our loans that were not pledged anywhere. And we had almost (inaudible) of unpledged loans. And so we spent time looking at those data tapes sending them to the home loan bank, sending them to the Federal Reserve and increasing our contingent liquidity at those locations.

因此，在過去的幾周里，我們花了很多時間來查看我們沒有在任何地方抵押的貸款。我們幾乎（聽不清）有未抵押貸款。因此，我們花時間查看那些數據磁帶，將它們發送到家庭貸款銀行，將它們發送到美聯儲，並增加我們在這些地方的或有流動性。

And clearly, that doesn't cost us anything. It's just an effort of getting loan tapes to those places and making sure that they're accepted. And so that was a little bit of work that we went through over the last month. We think that, that's a prudent thing to do. We do not intend to use that capacity, but it's there for us in a severe, adverse or an unexpected situation.

顯然，這不會讓我們付出任何代價。這只是努力將貸款磁帶送到這些地方並確保它們被接受。這就是我們在上個月完成的一些工作。我們認為，這是謹慎的做法。我們不打算使用這種能力，但在嚴重、不利或意外的情況下它會為我們服務。

And Jamie, Chris, maybe I thought I heard you say the draw we took this quarter was done out of an abundance of caution, just to have extra liquidity in case we were to see some outflows, and we didn't need extra collateral for that draw. We had capacity, what Jamie was talking about was the incremental capacity that we added during the quarter just to have additional contingent funding available if we needed it.

傑米，克里斯，也許我以為我聽到你說我們本季度的抽籤是出於非常謹慎的考慮，只是為了有額外的流動性，以防我們看到一些資金流出，而且我們不需要額外的抵押品那畫。我們有能力，傑米所說的是我們在本季度增加的增量能力，只是為了在我們需要時提供額外的或有資金。

No, that all makes sense. And for whatever future episodes occur in the marketplace, you're that much more prepared. So that makes a lot of sense.

不，這一切都是有道理的。對於未來市場上發生的任何事件，您都準備得更加充分。所以這很有意義。

The next question comes from Sam from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Sam。

I wanted to start just one more question on credit. With the shift of the part of the consumer book in the held-for-sale, I want to ask specifically just on kind of what the thought process was behind that. And then converse, I guess, are you seeing any sort of underlying trends that made you more cautious on that particular book that you moved?

我只想再開始一個關於信用的問題。隨著消費者書籍部分在待售中的轉變，我想具體問一下這背後的思維過程是什麼。然後交談，我想，你是否看到任何潛在的趨勢讓你對你移動的那本書更加謹慎？

Yes, I'll start, and maybe Jamie can cover the held-for-sale. Sam, this is Bob. But from a credit perspective, the move of -- that was a third-party move and just simplistically stated, we built that third-party book during the excess liquidity period but we were in during the pandemic and when we're going the other direction with liquidity.

是的，我會開始，也許傑米可以負責待售的。山姆，這是鮑勃。但從信用的角度來看，此舉是第三方的舉動，簡單地說，我們在流動性過剩時期建立了第三方賬簿，但我們在大流行期間進入了另一個階段方向與流動性。

So it was viewed as an investment alternative as a surrogate to the investment portfolio and a good yielding move for us on -- without taking a whole lot of duration risk and some limited, what I would call limited credit risk. And now we're just kind of exiting that position. And again, I think validating that there wasn't a whole lot of credit risk there as we took a $6 million charge to make that transfer.

因此，它被視為一種投資選擇，作為投資組合的替代品，對我們來說是一個良好的收益舉措——無需承擔大量的持續時間風險和一些有限的風險，我稱之為有限的信用風險。而現在我們只是有點退出那個位置。再一次，我認為驗證那裡沒有太多的信用風險，因為我們收取了 600 萬美元的費用來進行轉移。

But from the underlying consumer credit quality, and I would include small business loans in that category, Sam, since we do a lot of that through our retail network, we've seen moderate migration in credit metrics or moderate deterioration. Most of our mortgage portfolio is private wealth and position. So it's holding up fairly well.

但從潛在的消費信貸質量來看，我會把小企業貸款包括在這一類中，山姆，因為我們通過零售網絡做了很多，我們已經看到信貸指標適度遷移或適度惡化。我們的大部分抵押貸款組合都是私人財富和地位。所以它保持得相當好。

We do have an affordable program that we're actually very proud of that we use to support lower income in LMI districts. And we have seen some deterioration there. But again, we think we're working with those borrowers have great programs and assistance programs that we provide and proud to do that in our markets actually.

我們確實有一個負擔得起的計劃，我們實際上對此感到非常自豪，我們用它來支持 LMI 地區的低收入。我們在那裡看到了一些惡化。但同樣，我們認為我們正在與那些借款人合作，我們提供了很好的計劃和援助計劃，我們為在我們的市場上這樣做感到自豪。

So overall credit in the consumer book is kind of stable with some slight deterioration in small business. And Jamie, on the accounting side?

因此，消費者賬戶的整體信用穩定，小企業略有惡化。傑米，在會計方面？

Yes. As we think about that portfolio, the auto portfolio we moved to held-for-sale, that's something we began talking about, and I believe, in October after third quarter earnings and a process that we've been proceeding down. And we moved into held-for-sale, and then the month of March happened and there's just more uncertainty out there.

是的。當我們考慮這個投資組合時，我們轉向持有待售的汽車投資組合，這是我們開始談論的事情，而且我相信，在第三季度收益之後的 10 月份以及我們一直在進行的過程中。然後我們進入待售狀態，然後 3 月份發生了，那裡有更多的不確定性。

And so it's our intent to sell that portfolio. As Bob mentioned, the credit is performing very well. They are also shorter duration assets. And so there are assets that we like. We think that there's a good profile, good risk-adjusted return. But given the last month, I would say that it's a little more uncertain out there, the environment to sell loans like this. But what we continue to intend to sell it, and we'll continually reassess as we see where the market is on that.

因此，我們打算出售該投資組合。正如 Bob 所提到的，信用表現非常好。它們也是持續時間較短的資產。所以有我們喜歡的資產。我們認為有一個良好的形象，良好的風險調整後回報。但考慮到上個月，我會說那裡有點不確定，像這樣出售貸款的環境。但我們繼續打算出售它，我們會不斷重新評估，因為我們看到市場在哪裡。

Got it. I appreciate the color. And then if I could just have one more in there. Jamie, I appreciate the color you gave on the deposit beta assumptions and how those are moving around and I guess, what the mix impact on that. Would you be able to give some specific color on the interest-bearing deposit beta?

知道了。我很欣賞這種顏色。然後如果我能再放一個的話。傑米，我很欣賞你對存款貝塔假設給出的顏色，以及這些假設是如何變化的，我想，混合對此有何影響。你能給生息存款貝塔一些具體的顏色嗎？

As you think about interest-bearing deposit beta, we were at 43% in the first quarter. And as I mentioned, in the month of March, a little bit higher in interest-bearing deposit costs. That gets you to enter the cycle interest-bearing deposit costs of 47% It's -- the mix is really important when you think about what happens from here as we get later cycle. But we could see that approach 60% as you get out into the third quarter.

當你考慮帶息存款貝塔時，我們在第一季度為 43%。正如我提到的，在 3 月份，有息存款成本略高。這讓你進入 47% 的周期生息存款成本——當你考慮我們進入後期週期時從這裡發生的事情時，這種組合非常重要。但是當你進入第三季度時，我們可以看到接近 60%。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Kevin Blair for any closing remarks. Thank you.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給凱文布萊爾先生作閉幕詞。謝謝。

Thank you, Adam. And as we wrap up our call today, I just want to reiterate how proud I am of our results to date and for the agility we're showing to adapt to an ever-changing marketplace while continuing to make progress and executing on our strategic plan.

謝謝你，亞當。在我們結束今天的電話會議時，我只想重申，我對我們迄今為止的成果以及我們為適應不斷變化的市場而表現出的敏捷性感到自豪，同時繼續取得進展並執行我們的戰略計劃.

Our team continues to work tirelessly to deliver the highest quality of service and advice to our clients while addressing the uncertainty and anxiety caused by a few bank failures that were idiosyncratic in nature. Despite these challenges, we delivered strong financial results. We continue to grow our client base. We further derisked the balance sheet, and we adjusted our forward plans to produce mid-to-high single-digit PPNR growth for the year.

我們的團隊繼續孜孜不倦地工作，為我們的客戶提供最高質量的服務和建議，同時解決一些本質上特殊的銀行倒閉所帶來的不確定性和焦慮。儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們還是取得了強勁的財務業績。我們繼續擴大我們的客戶群。我們進一步降低了資產負債表的風險，並調整了我們的遠期計劃，以實現今年的 PPNR 中高個位數增長。

And we're delivering on these results in the face of either a prolonged economic slowdown or an actual recession. The awards and the recognition that we referenced today, coupled with others that we did not mention such as being recognized as the top workplace in Atlanta, serve as further proof points that our clients and our team members trust and value our company and the services we provide.

面對長期經濟放緩或實際衰退，我們正在取得這些成果。我們今天提到的獎項和認可，以及我們沒有提及的其他獎項和認可，例如被公認為亞特蘭大最佳工作場所，進一步證明了我們的客戶和團隊成員信任和重視我們的公司和我們提供的服務提供。

And you can rest assured that we're not satisfied with this recognition, but rather, our focus will remain on incremental improvements as well as investing in our teams and empowering them to deliver the best possible experience to our clients. We believe that our success is not just measured on financial performance, but also by the impact we have on our communities.

您可以放心，我們對這種認可並不滿意，相反，我們的重點將繼續放在漸進式改進上，以及投資於我們的團隊並授權他們為我們的客戶提供最佳體驗。我們相信，我們的成功不僅僅取決於財務業績，還取決於我們對社區的影響。

That's why we remain dedicated to supporting the 55 MSAs that we support in our 5-state footprint as we recently announced our '23 financial commitment to more than 300 organizations that do amazing work across our footprint.

這就是為什麼我們仍然致力於支持我們在 5 個州足跡中支持的 55 個 MSA，因為我們最近宣布了我們對 300 多個在我們的足跡中做出驚人工作的組織的 23 財政承諾。

As we move forward, we will continue to prioritize relationship banking values of teamwork, excellence and integrity. We know that these values are what builds trust and sets us apart and enables us to deliver for our clients, our team members and also our shareholders.

隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續優先考慮團隊合作、卓越和誠信的關係銀行價值觀。我們知道，正是這些價值觀建立了信任，使我們與眾不同，並使我們能夠為我們的客戶、我們的團隊成員和我們的股東提供服務。

On behalf of the entire Synovus team, I want to thank you for your continued support and trust. We remain excited about our future, and look forward to continuing to deliver in the quarters and years to come. With that, Adam, we'll close today's call.

我代表整個 Synovus 團隊，感謝您一直以來的支持和信任。我們仍然對我們的未來感到興奮，並期待在未來的季度和年份繼續交付。有了這個，亞當，我們將結束今天的電話會議。

This does conclude today's call. Thank you all very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝大家的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。