Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to The Simply Good Foods Company Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候，歡迎參加 Simply Good Foods 公司 2022 財年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mark Pogharian, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mark, please go ahead.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mark Pogharian。馬克，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning. I am pleased to welcome you to The Simply Good Foods Company earnings call for the third quarter ended May 28, 2022. Joe Scalzo, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer, will provide you with an overview of results, which will then be followed by a Q&A session. The company issued its earnings release this morning at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time. A copy of the release and accompanying presentation are available under the Investors section of the company's website at www.thesimplygoodfoodscompany.com. This call is being webcast and an archive of today's remarks will also be available.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好。我很高興歡迎您參加截至 2022 年 5 月 28 日的第三季度 The Simply Good Foods Company 收益電話會議。Joe Scalzo，總裁兼首席執行官；首席財務官 Todd Cunfer 將為您提供結果概述，隨後將進行問答環節。該公司於美國東部時間早上 7:00 左右發布了財報。該新聞稿和隨附演示文稿的副本可在公司網站 www.thesimplygoodfoodscompany.com 的“投資者”部分獲得。此次電話會議正在進行網絡直播，還將提供今天發言的存檔。

During the course of today's call, management will make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. A detailed listing of such risks and uncertainties can be found in today's press release and in the company's SEC filings. Note that on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe will provide useful information for investors. Due to the company's asset-light strong cash flow business model, we evaluate our performance on an adjusted basis as it relates to EBITDA and diluted EPS.

在今天的電話會議期間，管理層將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。此類風險和不確定性的詳細列表可在今天的新聞稿和公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考某些我們認為將為投資者提供有用信息的非公認會計準則財務指標。由於公司的輕資產強勁現金流業務模式，我們在調整後的基礎上評估我們的業績，因為它與 EBITDA 和攤薄每股收益有關。

Additionally, year-to-date fiscal 2022 adjusted results exclude the mark-to-market effect of the treatment of the company's private warrants prior to those warrants being fully exercised in January 2022. We have included a detailed reconciliation from GAAP to adjusted item in today's press release. We believe these adjusted measures are a key indicator of the underlying performance of the business. The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's press release for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

此外，年初至今的 2022 財年調整結果不包括在 2022 年 1 月完全行使這些認股權證之前處理公司私人認股權證的市值效應。我們已將 GAAP 與調整項目的詳細調節納入今天的新聞稿。我們認為，這些調整後的指標是衡量業務基本表現的關鍵指標。此信息的呈現不應孤立地考慮或替代根據公認會計原則呈現的財務信息。請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解非 GAAP 財務指標與根據 GAAP 編制的最具可比性的指標之間的對賬。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe Scalzo, President and Chief Executive Officer.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給總裁兼首席執行官喬·斯卡爾佐。

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, I'll recap our third quarter results and then provide you with some perspective on the performance of our brands, then I'll turn the call over to Todd, who will discuss our financial results in a bit more detail before we wrap it up with a discussion of our outlook and answer your questions.

謝謝你，馬克。早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天，我將回顧一下我們的第三季度業績，然後為您提供一些關於我們品牌表現的觀點，然後我將把電話轉給 Todd，在我們結束之前，他將更詳細地討論我們的財務業績討論我們的前景並回答您的問題。

In the third quarter, we delivered solid net sales and earnings that were slightly greater than our expectations due to better-than-anticipated retail takeaway and higher customer inventory that was not drawn down as expected during the quarter. Net sales increased 11.5%, including the previously discussed effects of the European exit and Quest frozen pizza licensing agreement. As expected, net price realization was a high single-digit percentage point contribution to net sales growth. Due to the price increase we implemented in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 and elasticity was relatively in line with our estimates.

在第三季度，由於零售外賣好於預期以及客戶庫存未如預期那樣下降，我們實現了穩健的淨銷售額和盈利，略高於我們的預期。淨銷售額增長 11.5%，包括之前討論的歐洲退出和 Quest 冷凍披薩許可協議的影響。正如預期的那樣，淨價格實現對淨銷售額增長的貢獻是個位數的高個百分點。由於我們在 2022 財年第一季度實施的價格上漲，彈性與我們的估計相對一致。

Third quarter net sales growth in North America, excluding the impact of the frozen pizza licensing transaction was about 15%, in line with combined measured and unmeasured channel retail takeaway. As expected, gross margin of 37.5% was in line with estimates and sequentially improved versus Q2 gross margin of 36.6%. The 510 basis point decline versus year ago period was due to higher supply chain costs, partially offset by pricing.

排除冷凍披薩許可交易的影響後，北美第三季度的淨銷售額增長約為 15%，與綜合衡量和未衡量的渠道零售外賣一致。正如預期的那樣，37.5% 的毛利率與預期一致，並且與第二季度的 36.6% 的毛利率相比環比有所改善。與去年同期相比下降 510 個基點是由於供應鏈成本增加，部分被定價抵消。

Of note, in the year ago period, gross margin of 42.6% was the highest since we acquired Quest. We have good visibility into our cost structure for the remainder of fiscal 2022, and there is no change to our gross margin outlook. We expect fiscal year 2022 gross margins declined about 250 basis points versus the previous fiscal year. Customer service was solid during the quarter as our supply chain team performed well in a very challenging environment.

值得注意的是，去年同期，42.6% 的毛利率是我們收購 Quest 以來的最高水平。我們對 2022 財年剩餘時間的成本結構有很好的了解，我們的毛利率前景沒有變化。我們預計 2022 財年的毛利率比上一財年下降約 250 個基點。由於我們的供應鏈團隊在極具挑戰性的環境中表現良好，本季度的客戶服務非常穩定。

As expected, adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $63.3 million versus the year ago period of $67.5 million due to the aforementioned gross margin decline. We executed well against our priorities in the quarter and remain committed to do the right things for our brands, customers and consumers. We're confident in the strength of our business and the diversification of our portfolio across forms, customers and retail channels that provide us with multiple ways to win in the marketplace and deliver shareholder value.

正如預期的那樣，由於上述毛利率下降，第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6330 萬美元，而去年同期為 6750 萬美元。我們在本季度的優先事項上執行得很好，並繼續致力於為我們的品牌、客戶和消費者做正確的事情。我們對我們的業務實力以及我們在形式、客戶和零售渠道上的多元化投資組合充滿信心，這為我們提供了多種在市場上取勝並為股東創造價值的方式。

Simply Good Foods retail takeaway in measured channels increased 14.4%. And as has been the case throughout the pandemic, both our brands have outperformed their respective subsegments of weight management and active nutrition. In Q3, the weight management segment declined 4.7%. Atkins outperformed the segment with retail takeaway up 3.4% over the same time frame. Importantly, Atkins performance in unmeasured channels is outpacing measured more on this in a bit.

Simply Good Foods 零售外賣在測量渠道中增長了 14.4%。與整個大流行期間的情況一樣，我們的兩個品牌在體重管理和積極營養方面的表現都優於各自的細分市場。第三季度，體重管理部門下降了 4.7%。阿特金斯的零售外賣在同一時間範圍內增長了 3.4%，表現優於該細分市場。重要的是，阿特金斯在未測量的渠道中的表現稍微超過了在這方面測量的更多。

Total Quest retail takeaway in measured channels in Q3 increased 30.6% and outpaced the Active Nutrition segment growth of 18.9%. We estimate U.S. retail takeaway in unmeasured channels, primarily the e-commerce and specialty channels increased about 15% versus last year. As expected, e-commerce growth was more than offset by declines in the specialty channel.

第三季度測量渠道中的 Total Quest 零售外賣增長了 30.6%，超過了 18.9% 的 Active Nutrition 部門增長。我們估計美國零售外賣在未衡量的渠道中，主要是電子商務和專業渠道，與去年相比增長了約 15%。正如預期的那樣，電子商務的增長被專業渠道的下降所抵消。

Atkins Q3 U.S. retail takeaway in the IRI MULO + C-store universe increased 3.4%. Shopper trips tended lower in the quarter and was most likely a headwind to overall brand growth in measured channels. Atkins Q3 retail takeaway in Amazon increased 39% driven by strong growth in shakes. We estimate total unmeasured channel retail takeaway increased about 22% and is approximately 12% of total Atkins retail sales.

阿特金斯第三季度美國零售外賣在 IRI MULO + C-store 領域增長了 3.4%。本季度的購物者旅行趨於下降，很可能是衡量渠道中整體品牌增長的逆風。在奶昔強勁增長的推動下，阿特金斯第三季度在亞馬遜的零售外賣增長了 39%。我們估計未衡量的渠道零售外賣總額增加了約 22%，約佔阿特金斯零售總額的 12%。

Given the strong growth at Amazon, Atkins Q3 retail takeaway and the combined measured and unmeasured channel was up about 6% versus prior year as fewer shopper trips in brick-and-mortar were offset by strong e-commerce growth. Atkins growth in total buyers in the quarter remained strong, up double digits on a percentage basis versus the year ago period. However, buy rate remains mid-single digits below historic levels and going forward remains an opportunity for the brand.

鑑於亞馬遜的強勁增長，阿特金斯第三季度零售外賣以及綜合衡量和非衡量渠道與去年相比增長了約 6%，因為實體店購物者旅行的減少被強勁的電子商務增長所抵消。本季度阿特金斯的總買家增長依然強勁，與去年同期相比增長了兩位數。然而，購買率仍低於歷史水平的中個位數，未來仍然是該品牌的機會。

Atkins third quarter measured channel retail takeaway for our core bar and shake business increased 3.5%, driven by solid shakes growth of 14.1%, partially offset by a decline in bars of 4.2%. Of note, bar consumption has been impacted by fewer at-work consumption occasions as well as high substitution with Atkins shakes. Atkins Q3 measured channel retail takeaway of other forms. This includes confections, cookies and chips, increased 3.2%. Growth was driven by cookies that continue to do well and contributed about 2.7 points to total Atkins brand measured channel retail takeaway growth.

阿特金斯第三季度衡量我們核心酒吧和奶昔業務的渠道零售外賣增長 3.5%，這得益於 14.1% 的穩健增長，部分被酒吧 4.2% 的下降所抵消。值得注意的是，酒吧消費受到工作場所消費次數減少以及阿特金斯奶昔替代率高的影響。 Atkins Q3 測量了其他形式的渠道零售外賣。這包括糖果、餅乾和薯條，增長了 3.2%。增長是由繼續表現良好的餅乾推動的，並為阿特金斯品牌衡量的渠道零售外賣總增長貢獻了約 2.7 個百分點。

We are excited by the potential of our recently launched protein chips, however, performance is too early to read with distribution in early stages of building. Confections POS was off 8.1% in the quarter as we lapped last year's strong performance related to our dessert bars launch and lower consumer interest in keto confections. Atkins all other snacks, confections, cookies and chips [are] about 30% of total Atkins measured channel retail sales. We have a solid pipeline of innovation for the brand that we believe will enable us to provide consumers with new products, a variety of news to drive growth.

我們對我們最近推出的蛋白質芯片的潛力感到興奮，但是，在構建的早期階段，通過分發來讀取性能還為時過早。本季度糖果 POS 下降 8.1%，原因是去年與我們推出甜點棒相關的強勁表現以及消費者對酮類糖果的興趣降低。阿特金斯所有其他零食、糖果、餅乾和薯條[佔]阿特金斯測量的渠道零售總額的 30% 左右。我們為品牌擁有堅實的創新渠道，我們相信這將使我們能夠為消費者提供新產品和各種新聞以推動增長。

Let me now turn to Quest, where third quarter retail takeaway increased 30.6% in the measured IRI MULO + C-store universe and outpaced the Active Nutrition segment. Growth versus the year ago period was driven by increases in household penetration, strong consumption across all major forms and success in new products. Quest's core bar business in the quarter, measured channel retail takeaway increased 14.1%, with solid growth across all major channels.

現在讓我談談 Quest，在 IRI MULO + C-store 的測量範圍內，第三季度零售外賣增長了 30.6%，超過了 Active Nutrition 部分。與去年同期相比的增長是由家庭滲透率的提高、所有主要形式的強勁消費以及新產品的成功推動的。 Quest 的核心酒吧業務在本季度衡量的渠道零售外賣增長了 14.1%，所有主要渠道均實現了穩健增長。

The snackier portion of Quest products that's cookies confections and chips continue to do well with third quarter measured channel retail takeaway up 65%. Growth was strong across all forms and was driven by increasing household penetration of these forms, distribution gains and marketing investments to drive growth. We have a solid pipeline of innovation and expect that snacks slightly greater than 40% of the total Quest measured channel retail sales will continue to generate solid growth over the next year and long term.

Quest 產品的零食部分，即餅乾糖果和薯條繼續表現良好，第三季度衡量的渠道零售外賣增長了 65%。所有形式的增長都很強勁，這得益於這些形式的家庭滲透率不斷提高、分銷收益和營銷投資以推動增長。我們擁有堅實的創新渠道，並預計略高於 Quest 衡量的渠道零售總額 40% 的零食將在明年和長期內繼續實現穩健增長。

We had another solid quarter of performance across to all key retail channels with growth that similar across all major classes of trade. Quest third quarter retail takeaway at Amazon increased 23%. As expected, e-commerce growth more than offset declines in the specialty channel, resulting in total third quarter unmeasured retail takeaway of about 12%. We estimate unmeasured channels are about 25% of total Quest retail sales. In summary, we're pleased with our third quarter results that were better than we expected.

我們在所有主要零售渠道中又取得了穩健的季度業績，所有主要貿易類別的增長都相似。亞馬遜的 Quest 第三季度零售外賣增長了 23%。正如預期的那樣，電子商務的增長超過了專業渠道的下降，導致第三季度未衡量的零售外賣總額約為 12%。我們估計未衡量的渠道約佔 Quest 零售總額的 25%。總而言之，我們對第三季度的業績比我們預期的要好感到滿意。

Consistent with our previous estimate, we anticipate low double-digit retail takeaway in the second half of the year with fourth quarter retail takeaway estimated in the high single digits on a percentage basis versus last year. We entered the fourth quarter with slightly higher customer inventory levels as we shipped ahead of consumption for the fiscal year-to-date period. Therefore, in the fourth quarter, we expect retail takeaway growth to be better than net sales performance as customers adjust inventory to more normal fiscal year-end levels.

與我們之前的估計一致，我們預計今年下半年零售外賣將出現兩位數的低位，而第四季度零售外賣的百分比估計與去年相比將達到高個位數。我們進入第四季度時，客戶庫存水平略高，因為我們在本財年迄今的消費之前發貨。因此，隨著客戶將庫存調整到更正常的財年末水平，我們預計第四季度零售外賣增長將好於淨銷售業績。

We have good visibility into our cost structure and our costs are largely covered for the balance of the year. Therefore, there is no change to our fiscal 2022 supply chain cost inflation and gross margin outlook. Implementation of the price increase announced this April is primarily a benefit in fiscal 2023 and is progressing as planned. We're executing against our plans, and we believe we're in a position to deliver another year of solid net sales and adjusted EBITDA growth as a path to increasing shareholder value.

我們對我們的成本結構有很好的了解，我們的成本在今年餘下的時間里大部分都被支付了。因此，我們的 2022 財年供應鏈成本通脹和毛利率前景沒有變化。今年 4 月宣布的價格上漲的實施主要是對 2023 財年的好處，並且正在按計劃進行。我們正在執行我們的計劃，我們相信我們有能力再實現一年穩健的淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 增長，以此作為增加股東價值的途徑。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Todd, who provide you with some greater financial details.

有了這個，我現在把電話轉給 Todd，他會為你提供一些更詳細的財務細節。

Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with a review of our net sales. Total Simply Good Foods third quarter net sales increased 11.5% to $316.5 million due to solid retail takeaway in the quarter. North America net sales increased 12.9%, driven by pricing a high single-digit percentage point benefit to net sales growth. The March agreement to license the Quest frozen pizza business to Bellisio Foods was a 1.8 percentage point headwind to North America net sales growth. As expected, the international business declined 25.1% due to the Europe business exit. Core international net sales growth was 8.1%. The combined Europe business exit and Quest frozen pizza business licensing transaction was a 2.9 percentage point impact of total company net sales growth.

謝謝你，喬，大家早上好。我將從回顧我們的淨銷售額開始。由於本季度穩健的零售外賣，Simply Good Foods 第三季度淨銷售額增長 11.5% 至 3.165 億美元。北美淨銷售額增長 12.9%，這是由於定價高個位數百分點對淨銷售額增長有利。 3 月份將 Quest 冷凍比薩業務許可給 Bellisio Foods 的協議對北美的淨銷售額增長造成了 1.8 個百分點的不利影響。正如預期的那樣，由於歐洲業務退出，國際業務下降了 25.1%。核心國際淨銷售額增長8.1%。歐洲業務退出和 Quest 冷凍比薩業務許可交易對公司總淨銷售額增長產生了 2.9 個百分點的影響。

Moving on to other P&L items. Gross profit was $118.6 million, a decline of $2.4 million versus the year ago period. Gross margin was 37.5%, a decrease of 510 basis points versus last year and was in line with our estimates. Supply chain cost inflation in the third quarter of fiscal 2022 was partially offset by the previously discussed price increase implemented at retail in the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Net income in Q3 was $38.8 million versus $5.9 million in the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA was $63.3 million versus $67.5 million in the year ago period.

轉到其他損益項目。毛利潤為 1.186 億美元，與去年同期相比下降了 240 萬美元。毛利率為 37.5%，較去年下降 510 個基點，符合我們的預期。 2022 財年第三季度的供應鏈成本通脹被之前討論的 2022 財年第一季度零售價格上漲部分抵消。第三季度的淨收入為 3880 萬美元，而去年同期為 590 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 6330 萬美元，而去年同期為 6750 萬美元。

Selling and marketing expense increased 4.9% to $32.3 million, driven by higher brand-building initiatives on both brands. Note that we now expect marketing expense for the full year fiscal 2022 to increase high single digits on a percentage basis versus last year versus our previous outlook for a mid- to high single-digit increase. G&A expense, excluding integration and restructuring expenses as well as stock-based compensation increased 2.2% to $23.6 million. Lower costs related to the European business exit was offset by higher corporate expense.

銷售和營銷費用增長 4.9% 至 3,230 萬美元，這主要得益於兩個品牌的更高品牌建設計劃。請注意，我們現在預計 2022 財年全年的營銷費用將比去年增加高個位數百分比，而我們之前的預期是中高個位數增長。 G&A 費用（不包括整合和重組費用以及股票薪酬）增長 2.2% 至 2,360 萬美元。與歐洲業務退出相關的較低成本被較高的企業費用所抵消。

Moving to other items in the P&L. Interest expense declined $3.1 million to $4.9 million due to the repricing in the second quarter and pay down of the term loan. Our effective tax rate in Q3 was about 23%, slightly lower compared to 27% in the year ago period due to timing of equity compensation. Year-to-date results are as follows: Net sales increased 19.9% to $894.5 million. Gross profit was $343.7 million, an increase of 12.6%. Gross margin of 38.4% declined 250 basis points versus the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA increased 15.3% to $183.1 million due to the higher gross profit and G&A leverage. Selling and marketing expenses increased 15.4% to $94.8 million. The increase was driven by higher marketing investments. G&A expenses increased 3.1% or $2.0 million. This excludes charges of $9.3 million related to integration costs, restructuring expenses, stock-based compensation and other expense.

移至損益表中的其他項目。由於第二季度的重新定價和償還定期貸款，利息支出減少了 310 萬美元至 490 萬美元。由於股權補償的時間安排，我們在第三季度的有效稅率約為 23%，略低於去年同期的 27%。年初至今的業績如下： 淨銷售額增長 19.9% 至 8.945 億美元。毛利潤為 3.437 億美元，增長 12.6%。毛利率為 38.4%，與去年同期相比下降了 250 個基點。由於較高的毛利潤和 G&A 槓桿，調整後的 EBITDA 增長 15.3% 至 1.831 億美元。銷售和營銷費用增長 15.4% 至 9480 萬美元。這一增長是由更高的營銷投資推動的。 G&A 費用增長 3.1% 或 200 萬美元。這不包括與整合成本、重組費用、股票補償和其他費用相關的 930 萬美元費用。

Moving to other items in the P&L. Interest expense declined $7.8 million to $16.5 million due to the repricing and the pay down of the term loan. The year-to-date non-cash charge related to our remeasurement of our private warrant liabilities was $30.1 million versus $60.7 million in the year ago period. Our year-to-date effective tax rate, excluding the charge related to the warrant liability was about 24%. We anticipate the full year fiscal 2022 tax rate to be in the 25% to 26% range. Net income was $78.4 million versus $22.6 million in the year ago period. The increase of $55.8 million is largely due to the remeasurement of the private warrant liabilities.

移至損益表中的其他項目。由於重新定價和償還定期貸款，利息支出減少了 780 萬美元至 1650 萬美元。與我們重新計量私人認股權證負債相關的年初至今非現金費用為 3010 萬美元，而去年同期為 6070 萬美元。我們年初至今的有效稅率（不包括與認股權證責任相關的費用）約為 24%。我們預計 2022 財年全年稅率將在 25% 至 26% 之間。淨收入為 7840 萬美元，而去年同期為 2260 萬美元。增加 5,580 萬美元主要是由於重新計量了私人認股權證負債。

Turning to EPS. Third quarter reported EPS was $0.38 per share diluted compared to $0.06 per share diluted for the comparable period of 2021. In fiscal Q3 2022, depreciation and amortization expense was $4.8 million and similar to the year ago period. Stock-based compensation of $3 million increased to $0.8 million versus last year and costs associated with Quest integration were $0.2 million. Adjusted diluted EPS, which excludes these items, was $0.44, an increase of $0.01 versus the year ago period. Note that we calculate adjusted diluted EPS as adjusted EBITDA less interest income, interest expense and income taxes. Year-to-date reported EPS was $0.78, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.23. Please refer to today's press release for an explanation and reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

轉向EPS。第三季度報告的每股攤薄收益為 0.38 美元，而 2021 年可比期間每股攤薄收益為 0.06 美元。在 2022 財年第三季度，折舊和攤銷費用為 480 萬美元，與去年同期相似。與去年相比，基於股票的薪酬從 300 萬美元增加到 80 萬美元，與 Quest 整合相關的成本為 20 萬美元。不包括這些項目的調整後稀釋每股收益為 0.44 美元，比去年同期增加 0.01 美元。請注意，我們將調整後的攤薄每股收益計算為調整後的 EBITDA 減去利息收入、利息費用和所得稅。年初至今報告的每股收益為 0.78 美元，調整後的稀釋後每股收益為 1.23 美元。請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解非公認會計原則財務指標的解釋和調節。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. Year-to-date net cash provided by operating activities was $67.4 million. This is affected by the timing of tax payments for the full fiscal year in addition to our decision to carry higher levels of inventory to facilitate better customer service levels. As of May 28, 2022, the company had cash of $56.7 million. In Q3, the company repaid $25 million of its term loan. And at the end of the quarter, the outstanding principal balance was $406.5 million, and the trailing 12-month net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.5x.

轉向資產負債表和現金流。年初至今，經營活動提供的淨現金為 6740 萬美元。除了我們決定攜帶更高水平的庫存以提高客戶服務水平外，這還受到整個財政年度納稅時間的影響。截至 2022 年 5 月 28 日，該公司擁有現金 5670 萬美元。第三季度，該公司償還了 2500 萬美元的定期貸款。在本季度末，未償本金餘額為 4.065 億美元，過去 12 個月淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.5 倍。

During the third quarter, the company repurchased $8.1 million of its common stock at an average cost of $37.16 per share. And on April 13 this year, the Board of Directors approved a $50 million increase to the existing stock repurchase program. As of May 28, 2022, approximately $69.3 million remained available under the stock repurchase authorization. We anticipate GAAP interest expense to be around $22 million for the full fiscal year, including non-cash amortization expense related to the deferred financing fees. Capital expenditures in the third quarter and year-to-date were 0.4 and $4.7 million, respectively. Full year CapEx is expected to be about $6 million.

在第三季度，該公司以每股 37.16 美元的平均成本回購了 810 萬美元的普通股。今年 4 月 13 日，董事會批准將現有的股票回購計劃增加 5000 萬美元。截至 2022 年 5 月 28 日，股票回購授權下仍有約 6930 萬美元可用。我們預計整個財年的 GAAP 利息費用約為 2200 萬美元，包括與遞延融資費用相關的非現金攤銷費用。第三季度和年初至今的資本支出分別為 0.4 美元和 470 萬美元。全年資本支出預計約為 600 萬美元。

I'd now like to turn the call back to Joe for closing remarks.

我現在想把電話轉回給 Joe 做結束語。

Thanks, Todd. Our solid year-to-date results position us well to deliver against our full year targets. Looking at the key metrics of our full year fiscal 2022 outlook, we expect net sales to increase 14% to 15% versus last year, including a 2 percentage point headwind related to the European business exit and the licensing of the Quest frozen pizza business. Our previous guidance for net sales growth of 13% to 15%. There is no change to our gross margin outlook.

謝謝，托德。我們年初至今的穩健業績使我們能夠很好地實現我們的全年目標。從我們 2022 財年全年展望的關鍵指標來看，我們預計淨銷售額將比去年增長 14% 至 15%，其中包括與歐洲業務退出和 Quest 冷凍比薩業務許可相關的 2 個百分點的逆風。我們之前對淨銷售額增長的指導為 13% 至 15%。我們的毛利率前景沒有變化。

As we stated earlier, we expect gross margin to decline about 250 basis points versus last year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase slightly less than the net sales growth rate. Marketing is expected to increase high single digits on a percentage basis compared to last year versus our previous outlook for mid- to high single-digit increase. Additionally, we anticipate significant G&A leverage. And the decline in interest expense should result in adjusted diluted EPS growing faster than adjusted EBITDA.

正如我們之前所說，我們預計毛利率將比去年下降約 250 個基點。調整後的 EBITDA 預計增幅將略低於淨銷售額增長率。與去年相比，與我們之前預期的中高個位數增長相比，市場營銷預計將在百分比基礎上增加高個位數。此外，我們預計會有顯著的 G&A 槓桿作用。利息費用的下降應該會導致調整後的攤薄每股收益增長快於調整後的 EBITDA。

We're excited about the growth opportunities that exist within our business and our category. Atkins and Quest provides us with 2 uniquely positioned brands that are aligned around the consumer megatrends of wellness, snacking, convenience and meal replacement. And consumer feedback indicates that these megatrends will become increasingly more relevant as consumers return to more normal post-pandemic routines.

我們對我們的業務和類別中存在的增長機會感到興奮。 Atkins 和 Quest 為我們提供了 2 個定位獨特的品牌，這些品牌與健康、零食、便利和代餐等消費大趨勢保持一致。消費者反饋表明，隨著消費者回歸到更正常的大流行後日常生活，這些大趨勢將變得越來越重要。

We're executing against our strategies and increasing household penetration that should continue to drive short- and long-term sales and earnings growth. Our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation enable us to invest in our business, evaluate M&A opportunities and to buy back shares of our stock as a path to increasing shareholder value. We appreciate everyone's interest in our company, and now we're available to take your questions. Operator?

我們正在執行我們的戰略並增加家庭滲透率，這將繼續推動短期和長期的銷售和盈利增長。我們強大的資產負債表和產生的現金流使我們能夠投資於我們的業務、評估併購機會並回購我們的股票作為增加股東價值的途徑。感謝大家對我們公司的關注，現在我們可以回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Chris Growe from Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I just had a quick question, if I could, for you in relation to the inventory levels. And obviously, this quarter did not show much of a change in the reduction in inventory at retail. I guess my question, Joe, just be around your ability to control that. I mean, at the end of the day, you've got retailers have taken higher levels overall. Can -- is this a matter of discussions, kind of negotiations with the retailers? To what degree can you sort of influence that, if you will, here in the fourth quarter?

如果可以的話，我有一個關於庫存水平的快速問題。顯然，本季度零售庫存減少並沒有太大變化。我想我的問題，喬，只是圍繞你控制它的能力。我的意思是，歸根結底，零售商的整體水平更高。可以 - 這是一個討論的問題，與零售商的談判嗎？如果你願意的話，你能在多大程度上影響第四季度？

Yes. Maybe a little bit of background will be helpful, Chris, to understand kind of how the category and our business behaves on a typical year. We typically see a first half inventory build timed around seasonal programming at retail. So -- and the amount can vary, but it's been historically pretty consistent that we add inventory leading up to the kind of January, February, March merchandising. And then almost immediately after that, we see that inventory start to burn off such that by the time we get to the summer, it's typically back to pretty normal levels of inventory.

是的。克里斯，也許一點背景知識會有所幫助，以了解該類別和我們的業務在典型年份的表現。我們通常會看到上半年的庫存構建時間圍繞零售的季節性計劃進行。所以 - 數量可能會有所不同，但從歷史上看，我們在 1 月、2 月、3 月的商品推銷之前添加庫存是非常一致的。幾乎在那之後，我們看到庫存開始燃燒，到夏天時，通常會恢復到相當正常的庫存水平。

So nothing that we really have to do other than service customers in the buildup in support for the programming. So it's a normal cycle that we see in our business. We saw the inventory build mostly in Q2 of this year. We would have expected it to start coming out in Q3 that didn't happen. We're starting to see it now in June, and we're pretty confident it will behave pretty similar than it has historically. And my guess will be we'll see it all out and we'll return to more normal inventory by the end of the summer.

因此，除了在支持編程的過程中為客戶提供服務之外，我們實際上不需要做任何事情。因此，這是我們在業務中看到的正常週期。我們看到庫存主要在今年第二季度增加。我們原本預計它會在第三季度開始出現，但這並沒有發生。我們現在在 6 月開始看到它，我們非常有信心它的行為會與歷史上非常相似。我的猜測是我們會看到這一切，到夏末我們將恢復到更正常的庫存。

Yes. I would just add on, Chris, just to give a perspective as well. I mean we typically have 4 to 5 weeks of inventory on average with retailers. We're now at 5% to 6%. So we're not talking large amounts of incremental inventory. We're talking about a week. So as Joe said, we're starting to see it come out. There's no guarantees. It's going to get out by the end of the year, but we're pretty confident we'll manage through it.

是的。克里斯，我想補充一下，也只是為了給出一個觀點。我的意思是我們通常在零售商那里平均有 4 到 5 週的庫存。我們現在是 5% 到 6%。所以我們不是在談論大量的增量庫存。我們說的是一周。正如喬所說，我們開始看到它的出現。沒有任何保證。它將於今年年底推出，但我們非常有信心能夠度過難關。

Just a second question or a follow-up in relation to the incremental or increase in marketing you expect now for the year. I guess the simple question of you, where are you focusing those investments? So I've been impressed by the number of Atkins users you've added, but a little bit of a lower buy rate in this environment. Can the marketing change that consumer behavior? Is that where you're focusing the dollars or where are the dollars kind of going as you look at these incremental investments? I'm finished there.

只是第二個問題或與您現在期望今年營銷的增量或增加有關的後續問題。我想你的簡單問題，你把這些投資集中在哪裡？因此，我對您添加的阿特金斯用戶數量印象深刻，但在這種環境下購買率有點低。營銷能改變消費者的行為嗎？這是您關注美元的地方，還是您查看這些增量投資時美元的去向？我已經完成了那裡。

Yes. Going to both brands based upon return, and I think you hit on the right issue. We're constantly focused on is marketing, driving new consumers to our brands, and that has been a pretty positive story for us this year and throughout COVID. We've seen strong consumer interest as we build awareness, consideration and trial. We felt particularly good about our ability to recruit buyers to our brand. And that's why we're leaning in as we move through the fourth quarter.

是的。根據回報去這兩個品牌，我認為你找到了正確的問題。我們一直專注於營銷，為我們的品牌吸引新消費者，這對我們今年和整個 COVID 來說都是一個非常積極的故事。隨著我們建立意識、考慮和試用，我們已經看到了強烈的消費者興趣。我們對我們為品牌招募買家的能力感到特別滿意。這就是我們在第四季度前進的原因。

Your next question is coming from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Joe, your comments on the Endulge business, the Confection business and consumers being perhaps less engaged with less interested in keto confection. That is -- and combine what we're seeing in retail. So it looks a little concerning because we're seeing both your confection business suffer some pretty sizable volume declines [in] your bars business. Is it possible that we're on the front end of a new diet cycle? Like is keto fading?

喬，您對 Endulge 業務、糖果業務和消費者的評論可能對酮類糖果的興趣降低了。那就是——結合我們在零售業看到的情況。所以這看起來有點令人擔憂，因為我們看到你們的糖果業務都遭受了相當可觀的銷量下降 [in] 你們的酒吧業務。我們是否有可能處於新的飲食週期的前端？就像酮褪色一樣？

Jason, let me step back first. If I look at the Atkins, it's helpful to have it in total perspective as opposed to zoom into one piece of the business. We've been pretty successful over the last 18 months and growing new buyers on Atkins. So the interest in the category, which I would broadly characterize as better-for-you snacking for people who care about weight on our brand has been particularly good. And we've outperformed the category on a consistent basis. Now when you dig into we're growing buyers, but buy rate is not at historic levels. There have been kind of 2 drivers to that. The first, as you mentioned it already. Our bar is there's fewer snacking occasions because people are less at work than they were pre-COVID. And so our bar business has been the most impacted by that. The second has been and this has been a more recent phenomenon, call it since September, October, our confection business has slowed and the buy rate has slowed on our confection business. And we can see 2 drivers of that.

傑森，讓我先退一步。如果我看一下阿特金斯，從整體的角度來看它是有幫助的，而不是放大業務的一部分。在過去的 18 個月中，我們取得了相當大的成功，並且在 Atkins 上不斷增加新的買家。因此，對於那些關心我們品牌重量的人來說，對這一類別的興趣特別好，我將其概括為更適合你的零食。我們的表現始終優於該類別。現在，當您深入了解我們正在增長的買家時，但購買率並未處於歷史水平。有兩種驅動力。第一個，正如你已經提到的。我們的酒吧減少了吃零食的機會，因為人們的工作時間比 COVID 之前少。因此，我們的酒吧業務受到的影響最大。第二個是，這是最近的現象，自 9 月、10 月以來，我們的糖果業務已經放緩，我們的糖果業務的購買率也有所放緩。我們可以看到 2 個驅動因素。

The first driver is -- and it's probably the more important. We had a very successful dessert bar confection launch a year ago. We're anniversarying those numbers. And we drove a lot of customer programming, a lot of communication around that. And we're on the downside of that, obviously comping those numbers. The second is we know all throughout COVID, and then even a little bit before, confections were benefiting from the interest in keto. And if you look at some of the competitive keto launches, they are all typically confection like products. Keto interest is off by half right now.

第一個驅動因素是——而且它可能更重要。一年前，我們推出了非常成功的甜點吧甜點。我們正在紀念這些數字。我們推動了很多客戶編程，圍繞它進行了大量的溝通。我們處於不利的一面，顯然是在計算這些數字。第二個是我們在整個 COVID 中都知道，甚至在更早之前，糖果就從對酮的興趣中受益。如果你看看一些有競爭力的酮類產品，它們都是典型的糖果類產品。酮的興趣現在減少了一半。

Obviously, we're seeing some impact on our confection business from that declining interest. And obviously, that will be something that will burn off over time. Do I think it's a long-term trend on the business? No, I don't. If we were seeing declining interest in the brand, we would see a fall-off in buyers, and we're not seeing that. In fact, we're seeing double-digit growth in buyers. And we'll burn through -- I'm pretty confident we'll burn through the buy rate issues of bars and confections over time and get back to a more normal consumption behaviors.

顯然，我們看到興趣下降對我們的糖果業務產生了一些影響。顯然，這將隨著時間的推移而消失。我認為這是業務的長期趨勢嗎？不，我沒有。如果我們看到對該品牌的興趣下降，我們會看到買家數量下降，而我們沒有看到這一點。事實上，我們看到買家的兩位數增長。而且我們會度過難關——我非常有信心，隨著時間的推移，我們會解決酒吧和糖果的購買率問題，並恢復到更正常的消費行為。

Your next question today is coming from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens.

您今天的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

Yes. This is Jack Hardin filling in for Ben Bienvenu. One quick question here. What does your product innovation pipeline currently look like?

是的。這是 Jack Hardin 替 Ben Bienvenu 做的。這裡有一個快速的問題。您的產品創新渠道目前是什麼樣的？

Well, we don't -- Jack, we typically don't talk a little -- much about what could happen in our business. We'd like to talk about what's happened. I would say we have a robust new product pipeline. We feel pretty confident. If you look at our most recent history, a lot of our innovation is focused on other snacking farms. So we look at our business and we see bars and shakes as a core. On the Atkins business, we have a strong bar and shake business on the Quest business. We have a very strong bar business. That's our core. We always innovate in that because we have to provide consumers news and variety. Our focus on innovation beyond that has been in other forms. So very strong [salty snack with tortilla chips]. We have a very strong confection business on both brands, and we're building a cookie business on both brands over time. You would expect our pipeline to continue to explore those opportunities as we go farther and also look at other snacking forms to drive more purchase occasions.

好吧，我們不 - 傑克，我們通常不會談論 - 太多關於我們業務中可能發生的事情。我們想談談發生了什麼。我想說我們有一個強大的新產品管道。我們感到非常有信心。如果您查看我們最近的歷史，我們的許多創新都集中在其他零食農場。因此，我們審視我們的業務，我們將酒吧和奶昔視為核心。在阿特金斯業務上，我們在 Quest 業務上擁有強大的酒吧和震動業務。我們有一個非常強大的酒吧業務。那是我們的核心。我們總是在這方面進行創新，因為我們必須為消費者提供新聞和多樣性。除此之外，我們對創新的關注還體現在其他形式上。非常強烈[帶玉米片的鹹點心]。我們在這兩個品牌上都有非常強大的糖果業務，隨著時間的推移，我們正在這兩個品牌上建立餅乾業務。隨著我們走得更遠，您會期望我們的管道繼續探索這些機會，並查看其他零食形式以推動更多購買場合。

Your next question is coming from Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Alexia Howard。

Can I ask about the gross margin trend from here? It looks as though this might have been the low point with the sort of big decline in the adjusted gross margin. Given your guidance for the full year and the fact that it's been down 250 basis points year-to-date, it looks that there's a sequential improvement next quarter. Is that because more pricing is kicking in? Is that because the cost situation is getting easier? Is it operating -- probably isn't operating leverage because the sales are slowing down next quarter. So I'm just curious about what's driving that? And if we are at an inflection point?

我可以從這裡詢問毛利率趨勢嗎？看起來這可能是調整後毛利率大幅下降的低點。鑑於您對全年的指導以及今年迄今已下跌 250 個基點的事實，看來下個季度將出現連續改善。那是因為更多的定價開始了嗎？那是因為成本情況變得越來越容易嗎？它是否在運營——可能不是運營槓桿，因為下個季度的銷售正在放緩。所以我只是好奇是什麼驅動了它？如果我們處於拐點？

Sure. So a couple of factors. So number one, last year's gross margin was very, very high. It was the highest we've had since the acquisition of Quest. Just kind of everything hit last year. We had favorable mix. We got bars back in. And most importantly, we didn't -- Q3 was really the last quarter that we didn't see a big increase and start to see the increase in commodities. So we were covered through Q3 of last year. Q4 of last year is when we started to see input prices accelerate. So Q3 was a high threshold. And as you move into this year, yes, we had some pricing, but we are lapping a very high gross margin, significant increase in input cost ingredient cost. Ingredient costs year-over-year for the quarter were actually up over 20% total supply chain costs kind of more in the mid-teens, but significant year-over-year impact just based on timing of last year. So that's the big driver. And yes, this will be the low point from a year-over-year change sequentially. We will be -- the actual gross margin will be higher in Q4. And year-over-year, the guidance kind of implies we're about down 200 basis points in Q4.

當然。所以有幾個因素。所以第一，去年的毛利率非常非常高。這是我們收購 Quest 以來的最高值。只是去年的一切都發生了。我們有有利的組合。我們重新獲得了酒吧。最重要的是，我們沒有——第三季度實際上是最後一個季度，我們沒有看到大宗商品的大幅增長並開始看到商品的增長。所以我們在去年的第三季度得到了保障。去年第四季度是我們開始看到投入品價格加速上漲的時候。所以第三季度是一個高門檻。當你進入今年，是的，我們有一些定價，但我們的毛利率非常高，投入成本成分成本顯著增加。該季度的原料成本實際上比去年同期增長了 20% 以上，總供應鏈成本在十幾歲的時候就更高了，但僅根據去年的時間，就產生了顯著的同比影響。所以這是最大的驅動力。是的，這將是同比變化的低點。我們將——第四季度的實際毛利率會更高。與去年同期相比，該指引暗示我們在第四季度下降了約 200 個基點。

And then as a follow-up, can you give us any color on the ingredient cost breakdown. We know that dairy is important for you. But these are big numbers that we're talking about 20% this time around. What is it that's going up so much? Is it mainly dairy? Are there other ingredients that you're exposed to? Is it on the sweetener side as well?

然後作為後續行動，您能否給我們提供有關成分成本細分的任何顏色。我們知道乳製品對您很重要。但這些都是很大的數字，我們這次談論的是 20%。是什麼東西漲了這麼多？主要是奶製品嗎？您還接觸過其他成分嗎？它也在甜味劑方面嗎？

Yes, it's mostly dairy protein complex. So it's our proteins, whether it's way any dairy products story. We're seeing significant price increases over the last 12, 18 months on all proteins. So that, by far, is the largest driver.

是的，它主要是乳蛋白複合物。所以這是我們的蛋白質，無論是任何乳製品的故事。在過去的 12、18 個月裡，我們看到所有蛋白質的價格都出現了大幅上漲。因此，到目前為止，這是最大的驅動力。

Yes. Alexia, this is Joe. We don't sell sweetener at all. We're anti-sweetener, remember. So we're low carb, low sugar. So it's -- we have proteins, coatings and fibers are our main ingredients, and they're all up.

是的。亞歷克西亞，這是喬。我們根本不賣甜味劑。我們是反甜味劑，記住。所以我們是低碳水化合物，低糖。所以它是——我們有蛋白質、塗層和纖維是我們的主要成分，而且它們都在上升。

Next question today is coming from John Baumgartner from Mizuho Securities.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 John Baumgartner。

Maybe first off for Joe, coming back to cookies, I mean, you've lapped 1 year in market, and I'd appreciate your thoughts regarding next steps here. I guess, top of mind for me is ACV seems to be leveling off around 50%. How do we think about the manufacturing capacity available to grow the business going forward, new shelf sets? And I guess, competitively, how are you seeing consumers engage with Atkins relative to some of the other low-sugar, sugar free products in that category?

也許首先是喬，回到餅乾，我的意思是，你在市場上已經過去了 1 年，我很感激你對這裡下一步的想法。我想，對我來說最重要的是 ACV 似乎穩定在 50% 左右。我們如何看待可用於發展業務的製造能力，新的貨架組？而且我想，在競爭中，相對於該類別中的其他一些低糖、無糖產品，您如何看待消費者與阿特金斯的互動？

Yes. So let me kind of unpack your questions. First of all, I think we're still in really early stages when it comes to cookies. So you mentioned -- I think you were referring to Quest. Quest is probably 3 years into its cookie launch. So conventional cookies were launched. Protein cookies were launched about 3 years ago. We're continuing to build distribution on those. We have frosted cookies that we just launched were, I think, in the 40s percent ACV on those and still building, and those have so far have performed really well in store, and Atkins just launched its cookie. So I would say we're kind of in early innings on cookies with Quest about 3 years old, but innovating on that platform. And look, I'm pretty optimistic about the format.

是的。所以讓我來解開你的問題。首先，我認為我們在餅乾方面仍處於早期階段。所以你提到 - 我認為你指的是 Quest。 Quest 推出 cookie 可能已經 3 年了。於是推出了傳統的cookies。蛋白質餅乾大約在 3 年前推出。我們將繼續在這些基礎上構建分發。我認為，我們剛剛推出的糖霜餅乾的 ACV 為 40%，並且仍在建設中，到目前為止，這些餅乾在商店中的表現非常好，阿特金斯剛剛推出了它的餅乾。所以我想說我們在 3 歲左右的 Quest 上處於早期階段，但在那個平台上進行了創新。看，我對格式非常樂觀。

I think there's a lot of innovation opportunities in that space in both the type of cookies, flavor, sizes, textures. So I think you should expect us to continue to innovate there. And we're not going to stop distribution pushes until we start getting top items near 70% ACV at retail. So we're pretty bullish. And it's a very -- the reason we're excited about it. It's an incremental consumption occasion to our core bar business and shake business. So you pick up more -- the way to think about it is you can bring more people in from it, but you also can get buy rate because people will eat these at different occasions. So we're pretty bullish about the segment, and we're bullish about our pipeline of products that's coming. So we like it.

我認為在餅乾的類型、風味、大小和質地方面都有很多創新機會。所以我認為你應該期待我們繼續在那裡創新。在我們開始獲得接近 70% 零售 ACV 的頂級商品之前，我們不會停止分銷推動。所以我們非常看好。這是一個非常 - 我們對此感到興奮的原因。對於我們的核心酒吧業務和震動業務來說，這是一個增量消費場合。所以你買得更多——考慮它的方式是你可以從中吸引更多的人，但你也可以獲得購買率，因為人們會在不同的場合吃這些。因此，我們非常看好該細分市場，並且看好我們即將推出的產品線。所以我們喜歡它。

And then just more broadly to follow-up on the phasing of the merchandising and marketing this fiscal year. It sounds as though the ROI is pretty solid. You're pleased with consumer engagement and buyers based on Chris' question. But taking that further, might there be an argument to be made the promo window, the larger investments in quality promo, should that extend later into the fiscal year as a normalized approach going forward? I mean what's been the feedback from retailers as they're thinking about seasonal merchandise and for these categories? Does it make sense to spend that out more regularly?

然後更廣泛地跟進本財年的銷售和營銷階段。聽起來投資回報率非常可靠。根據 Chris 的問題，您對消費者參與度和買家感到滿意。但更進一步，是否有理由提出促銷窗口，即對質量促銷的更大投資，是否應該延長到本財年晚些時候作為未來的正常化方法？我的意思是零售商在考慮季節性商品和這些類別時的反饋是什麼？更經常地花錢有意義嗎？

We're already in -- it's a great question. Historically, and I'm going to go back 7, 8 years. Historically, the mindset of our business in the category is if you kind of win January, February, March kind of resolution season, you win the year. And we challenged that conventional wisdom a long time ago and said, we actually think that the seasonality of the business is more skewed by how manufacturers invest their marketing dollars, and we started spreading our marketing dollars out, both media as well as customer programming. So we have major programming now, January, March, May and September. And our spending from a programming standpoint is more balanced than it's ever been before, and we've seen our business become less seasonal because of it.

我們已經加入了——這是一個很好的問題。從歷史上看，我要回到7、8年前。從歷史上看，我們在該類別中的業務心態是，如果您贏得了 1 月、2 月、3 月的解決季節，那麼您就贏得了這一年。我們很久以前就挑戰了這種傳統觀念並說，我們實際上認為業務的季節性更多地受到製造商如何投資營銷資金的影響，我們開始將營銷資金分散到媒體和客戶節目中。所以我們現在有主要的節目，一月、三月、五月和九月。從編程的角度來看，我們的支出比以往任何時候都更加平衡，我們已經看到我們的業務因此變得不那麼季節性。

From a media investment standpoint, we're big believers in as best as you can year-round spending. So as opposed to trying to own January and March, we like to be on air as long as we can be on air with decent levels of support. And that has proven out in our business. Our business -- both of our businesses are less seasonally dependent than they've ever been before. So -- and that's all been driven by good returns, right? So if you think about it, if you're trying to win January and March, you spend all your money in January and March, the next incremental dollar gives you a less return because everybody else is spending their money in that period of time, and you've got too much investment and you lose your efficiency.

從媒體投資的角度來看，我們堅信全年的支出是最好的。因此，與試圖擁有 1 月和 3 月相反，我們更喜歡播出，只要我們能在播出時獲得不錯的支持。這已在我們的業務中得到證明。我們的業務——我們兩個業務的季節性依賴程度都比以往任何時候都要低。所以 - 這一切都是由良好的回報驅動的，對吧？所以如果你想一想，如果你想贏得一月和三月，你把所有的錢都花在了一月和三月，下一個增加的美元給你的回報會更少，因為其他人都在那段時間里花錢，而且你的投資太多，你會失去效率。

As you start spreading that out, your returns in other parts of the year are better. And so we're always driving it based on what we can see from an ROI standpoint. And that has told us weeks on air is the key metric at some decent level of weight, and that's the way we've been allocating our spending over for a number of years now based on the math that we see from a marketing science standpoint. Does that answer your question?

當您開始將其分散開時，您在一年中其他時間的回報會更好。因此，我們總是根據從投資回報率的角度看到的情況來推動它。這告訴我們，在某些體面的體重水平上，播出週數是關鍵指標，這就是我們多年來根據我們從營銷科學的角度看到的數學分配支出的方式。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes, absolutely. Very detailed.

是的，一點沒錯。非常詳細。

Your next question is coming from Cody Ross from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Cody Ross。

In the Nielsen scanner data, we can see the price you implemented on a 4-week basis. However, volume decelerated, largely driven by outright declines in the last 2 weeks. Can you discuss the underlying demand that you're seeing right now? And then more broadly discuss your outlook for elasticity of the brands?

在 Nielsen 掃描儀數據中，我們可以看到您以 4 週為單位實施的價格。然而，成交量減速，主要是由於過去兩週的全面下降。你能談談你現在看到的潛在需求嗎？然後更廣泛地討論您對品牌彈性的看法？

Yes. So we took on average, call it, 7% to 8% pricing. We estimated there would be a one-to-one relationship with volume. That's about what's happened. So if your business was growing 7% on a dollar basis, volume would be flat and it would all be pricing driven. On Atkins, we're seeing -- so you're looking at POS, can measure channels, you're seeing, call it, 5% growth. So volumes are down about 2% and the balance is pricing, and that's what we would have predicted. So nothing unusual on from an elasticity standpoint, the pricing is coming through as we would have expected and the volume impact is what we would have expected.

是的。所以我們平均採用 7% 到 8% 的定價。我們估計將與數量存在一對一的關係。這就是發生的事情。因此，如果您的業務以美元為基礎增長 7%，那麼銷量將持平，而且都是定價驅動的。在阿特金斯，我們看到——所以你在看 POS，可以衡量渠道，你看到，稱之為 5% 的增長。因此，銷量下降了約 2%，剩下的就是定價，這就是我們所預測的。因此，從彈性的角度來看，沒有什麼不尋常的，定價正如我們所預期的那樣，數量影響也是我們所預期的。

Yes. I would just follow on to your point, POS and brick-and-mortar has lightened up a little bit, particularly on Atkins, I would say it's kind of two-fold. One is we're just getting the category and we are just getting back to more normalized growth rates in total. Obviously, it was accelerated as we kind of lapped the COVID time period. So we're kind of getting back to where kind of more of a sustainable growth rate. Atkins, we've seen tremendous growth. As shopping trips with the impending consumer issues right now, shopper trips are actually down a little bit. They're starting to lag. We're seeing a big shift, particularly on Atkins to e-commerce. So you heard in Joe's comments, our e-commerce business, particularly on Amazon with Atkins, it has grown significantly over the last couple of months, and we're seeing that continue. So we're seeing some volume shift from brick-and-mortar to online in total that's we're happy with, with the performance. But yes, the work between shopper trips and kind of a little bit of a channel shift, there is a bit of an impact.

是的。我會繼續您的觀點，POS 和實體店已經減輕了一點，特別是在 Atkins 上，我想說這是雙重的。一個是我們剛剛獲得該類別，並且我們剛剛恢復到更正常化的總體增長率。顯然，隨著我們在 COVID 時間段內過去，它加速了。所以我們有點回到更可持續的增長率。阿特金斯，我們已經看到了巨大的增長。由於購物旅行現在面臨著迫在眉睫的消費者問題，購物旅行實際上有所下降。他們開始落後了。我們看到了一個巨大的轉變，尤其是在阿特金斯向電子商務的轉變。所以你在 Joe 的評論中聽到了，我們的電子商務業務，特別是在亞馬遜上與 Atkins 合作，在過去幾個月中顯著增長，我們看到這種情況還在繼續。因此，我們看到總體上從實體店到在線的銷量有所轉變，這是我們對性能感到滿意的。但是，是的，購物者旅行和渠道轉移之間的工作，有一點影響。

And if I can sneak one more in here. There's been a lot of discussion about Quest ability to effectively compete in the snacks category, and I'll lump in Atkins with that, too, without cannibalizing your existing business. We have many examples of brands failed attempt to jump into adjacent categories. What is different about your strategy with Quest and Atkins that will make you successful in Snacks? And what are some investors missing?

如果我能再偷偷溜進去一個。關於 Quest 在零食類別中有效競爭的能力有很多討論，我也會將 Atkins 與這一點混為一談，而不會蠶食你現有的業務。我們有很多品牌嘗試跳入相鄰類別失敗的例子。您與 Quest 和 Atkins 的策略有什麼不同，可以讓您在 Snacks 中取得成功？一些投資者缺少什麼？

Yes. Well, I'd say, first of all, the track record is pretty good evidence that we can be successful in multiple forms. So if you look at the Atkins business, about 20% to 25% of it's in confections already. So core business of bar and shake. We have a really strong confection business already. We ran that playbook on Quest with confections, peanut butter cups, clusters, and it's already a pretty strong business. Quest was even before our acquisition, well down the path on chips, which has become for Quest a close to $200 million retail business already. So I'd say that, that conventional wisdom around ability to innovate, I think, is proven to be incorrect on these businesses. And I think part of it is these are lifestyle brands. They stand for something other than just the product that they market. And so therefore, in the case of Atkins, it's a nutritional philosophy in the case of Quest, very similar active lifestyle with a kind of macro nutrient philosophy around it to fuel their lifestyle. So that -- those promises enable more than just a single product.

是的。好吧，我想說，首先，業績記錄很好地證明了我們可以以多種形式取得成功。所以如果你看看阿特金斯的業務，大約 20% 到 25% 的業務已經在糖果中了。所以酒吧和奶昔的核心業務。我們已經擁有非常強大的糖果業務。我們在 Quest 上用糖果、花生醬杯、集群運行了那本劇本，這已經是一項非常強大的業務。 Quest 甚至在我們被收購之前就已經走在了芯片的道路上，這對 Quest 來說已經成為接近 2 億美元的零售業務。所以我想說，關於創新能力的傳統智慧，我認為，在這些業務中被證明是不正確的。我認為部分原因是這些是生活方式品牌。他們代表的不僅僅是他們銷售的產品。因此，就阿特金斯而言，這是一種營養哲學，就 Quest 而言，這是一種非常相似的積極生活方式，圍繞著一種宏觀營養哲學來推動他們的生活方式。所以——這些承諾不僅僅是一個單一的產品。

And so as long as you're true to those promises, I think you have the ability to innovate. Now I would say there's a few executional differences that we believe in. We believe in the strength of the brand and a brand block in the store and owning the aisle that we're in. So you're not going to see us, for the most part, playing in other people's parts of the store. I think that is difficult to pull off. Because you don't have scale, you're not a major player in the aisle. There are people that are and you have difficulty controlling your brand and those other sections of the store.

所以只要你信守這些承諾，我認為你就有創新的能力。現在我想說的是，我們相信一些執行上的差異。我們相信品牌的力量和商店中的品牌塊，並擁有我們所在的過道。所以你不會看到我們，因為大多數情況下，在商店的其他人的部分玩。我認為這很難實現。因為你沒有規模，所以你不是過道中的主要參與者。有些人是這樣的，你很難控制你的品牌和商店的其他部分。

So I would probably put into an addendum on your belief around innovation in other categories. And the addendum would be if you start spreading yourself too thin around the different parts of the store, you could run into issues. And I do believe that is the case. So not surprising, our meal bowl business on Atkins, our pizza business on Quest, we've licensed those products out. We didn't believe we had a competitive advantage in those aisles, and we put those brands in the hands of people that do, and we stay focused on our own aisle and continue to focus on having strong brand blocks where we exist.

因此，我可能會對您對其他類別創新的信念進行補充。另外，如果你開始在商店的不同部分分散得太少，你可能會遇到問題。我相信確實如此。所以毫不奇怪，我們在 Atkins 上的餐碗業務，在 Quest 上的比薩業務，我們已經將這些產品授權出去。我們不相信我們在這些過道中具有競爭優勢，我們將這些品牌交到有競爭優勢的人手中，我們繼續專注於我們自己的過道，並繼續專注於在我們存在的地方擁有強大的品牌塊。

And then I would just say, third, I think the brand promises -- the products are really unique and outstanding. If you take a look at our chip business, you're giving people what is a high carb, a really bad for you snack, and you're giving them a really good for you snack, no carbs, high protein, and it tastes pretty good. So there's almost not a trade-off. And I think when we follow that platform, peanut butter cups, what I would challenge you to take -- do your own comparison with the full blown full sugar peanut butter cup and tell me that you can taste the difference. So I think the product matters, right? So when we get great innovation that taste really good. It's got great macro nutrients, we've proven that we can be successful. Expect us to continue to do that.

然後我只想說，第三，我認為品牌承諾 - 產品非常獨特和出色。如果你看看我們的芯片業務，你給人們的是一種高碳水化合物的零食，一種對你非常不利的零食，你給他們的是一種對你非常有益的零食，不含碳水化合物，高蛋白，而且味道很好非常好。所以幾乎沒有取捨。而且我認為當我們遵循該平台時，花生醬杯，我會挑戰你採取什麼 - 與成熟的全糖花生醬杯進行自己的比較，並告訴我你可以品嚐到不同之處。所以我認為產品很重要，對吧？因此，當我們獲得偉大的創新時，味道會非常好。它含有大量的大量營養素，我們已經證明我們可以成功。期待我們繼續這樣做。

Your next question today is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

您今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Maybe more of a higher level question. I guess as you work through your planning and scenario modeling, I'm curious how you're balancing thoughts around normalizing mobility trends, exiting the pandemic versus the risk of constrained mobility in a recessionary scenario? And I guess, more generally, how do you -- how would you expect the business to hold up or shift maybe to your earlier commentary on Atkins moving to e-commerce as economic pressures potentially or, I guess, likely build on the consumer over the next 6, 12 months?

也許更多的是更高層次的問題。我想當你通過你的計劃和場景建模工作時，我很好奇你是如何平衡關於使流動趨勢正常化的想法，退出大流行與衰退情景中流動受限的風險？而且我想，更一般地說，您如何 - 您如何期望業務能夠保持或轉移到您之前關於阿特金斯轉向電子商務的評論，因為潛在的經濟壓力，或者，我猜，可能建立在消費者之上未來 6、12 個月？

Yes. We've done a fair amount of work on recession behavior. You have to look back 15 years for the last recession, and there's very little data on our category because the category was really nascent. So we're trying to build our IQ around that right now, how to -- how do we think these businesses of this category and our brands will behave during a recession. High level, we tend to have better social economic consumers buying our brands. So for the most part, we're not dealing with the lower end of the consumer purchase households. We tend to do with more -- deal with more affluent consumers. But if you step back and look at the last recession, here's what we've been able to piece together and it's starting to guide how we think about it first. During the last recession, eating out was pretty significantly impacted versus grocery shopping and eating in. So a little bit of the COVID behavior. People eat in more. So that's probably good news for food and grocery in stores, right?

是的。我們在衰退行為方面做了大量工作。你必須回顧上一次經濟衰退的 15 年，關於我們這個類別的數據很少，因為這個類別真的是新生的。因此，我們現在正試圖圍繞這一點建立我們的智商，如何——我們認為這類企業和我們的品牌在經濟衰退期間將如何表現。高水平，我們傾向於有更好的社會經濟消費者購買我們的品牌。因此，在大多數情況下，我們不是在處理低端的消費者購買家庭。我們傾向於做更多——與更富裕的消費者打交道。但是，如果您退後一步，看看上一次經濟衰退，這就是我們能夠拼湊起來的東西，它開始指導我們首先如何思考它。在上一次經濟衰退期間，外出就餐與在雜貨店購物和就餐相比受到了相當大的影響。所以一點點的 COVID 行為。人們吃得更多。所以這對商店裡的食品和雜貨來說可能是個好消息，對吧？

Second, there was a significant amount of channel shifting due to -- in the last recession. So people shopped in fewer stores. We're starting to see that behavior right now, fewer shopping occasions, people started limiting the stores that they shop in. And in general, they tend to shop in more discounters. So more away from grocery, more towards mass merchants, dollar stores and some of the other discounted formats, right? That tends to be a behavior that we've seen. Snacking in general, I'm talking broad snacking, better-for-you and more indulgent snacking, less impacted than center store food categories. So in general, I think you rationalize it with, and people are still going to have small indulgences. That's a relatively low-cost way of enjoying yourself in an economy where you're not feeling particularly good. And then center of store, you saw private label start winning over brands. So in general, that's kind of the playbook that we're starting to construct how we think about our business.

其次，由於上一次經濟衰退，渠道發生了大量轉移。所以人們在更少的商店購物。我們現在開始看到這種行為，購物場合減少，人們開始限制他們購物的商店。總的來說，他們傾向於在更多的折扣店購物。所以更遠離雜貨店，更靠近大眾商家、一元店和其他一些折扣形式，對吧？這往往是我們已經看到的一種行為。總的來說，零食，我說的是廣泛的零食，對你更好，更放縱的零食，比中心商店食品類別的影響更小。所以總的來說，我認為你會合理化它，人們仍然會有小小的放縱。在您感覺不是特別好的經濟環境中，這是一種相對低成本的享受方式。然後是商店中心，你看到自有品牌開始贏得品牌。所以總的來說，這就是我們開始構建我們對業務的看法的劇本。

Frankly, I'm all -- we're taking a second price increase. We're going to be at price points we haven't experienced before, combined with what appears to be a pretty good recession. So we're going to be pretty cautious about what we believe around volume growth and stay focused on, are we recruiting consumers to the category. Maybe you're going to see a little bit of a buy rate decline because of that, but stay focused on keeping our marketing focused on recruiting consumers, keeping people coming into the brand and then we'll deal with kind of impact, if there's any on buy rate as we deal -- as we see that car during the year upcoming. But I'm concerned, and I think anybody that's running a food company right now should be concerned about what consumers are facing.

坦率地說，我完全 - 我們正在第二次提價。我們將處於我們以前從未經歷過的價格點，再加上看起來相當不錯的衰退。因此，對於我們對銷量增長的看法並保持專注，我們將非常謹慎，我們是否正在招募該類別的消費者。也許您會因此看到購買率略有下降，但請繼續專注於讓我們的營銷專注於招募消費者，讓人們進入品牌，然後我們將處理某種影響，如果有的話我們交易時的任何購買率 - 正如我們在即將到來的一年中看到的那樣。但我很擔心，我認為現在經營食品公司的任何人都應該關註消費者面臨的問題。

I think our portfolio, category, our brands are well positioned relative to broad food to ride out the -- if there's a recession coming. We're well positioned to ride it out. We have high levels of marketing support. We've got good product innovation. We've got momentum on shelf. I feel pretty good about our hand. Nonetheless, I'm concerned about what we're going to face over the next 12 to 18 months.

我認為我們的產品組合、類別、我們的品牌相對於廣泛的食品而言處於有利地位，可以在經濟衰退即將來臨的情況下度過難關。我們已經做好了應對的準備。我們有高水平的營銷支持。我們有很好的產品創新。我們在貨架上有動力。我對我們的手感覺很好。儘管如此，我還是擔心我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內面臨什麼。

Next question is coming from Eric Larson from Seaport Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Eric Larson。

So 2 real quick items. Number one, I don't think you talked about this metric, Joe, which is fairly critical to the Atkins brand, kind of the return to work -- kind of the return to work metric and where we sit with that. And I know it's probably continued to improve in the quarter, but you didn't mention anything about that specifically. Where do we sit with that today?

所以 2 真正的快速項目。第一，喬，我認為你沒有談到這個指標，它對阿特金斯品牌相當重要，有點像重返工作崗位——有點像重返工作崗位指標，以及我們所處的位置。而且我知道它可能在本季度繼續改善，但你沒有具體提及這一點。我們今天坐在哪裡？

Yes, better than it's been, not as good as it needs to be. So part of it, I think, is part of it is there are fewer snacking occasions because not everybody is back to full work as they were prior recession. We also know that there's high level -- within Atkins, there's high levels of switching between our shakes and our bars, and in particular, our meal bars. So we're seeing strong growth in shakes right now, kind of mid-teens growth. It's been pretty consistent for the last, call it, 3 quarters. And I think that's having an impact on our bar business. So shakes tend to be a slightly different eating occasion. They tend to be more meal replacement than snacking, but they are used for snacking. But I suspect we're seeing some switching to shakes as a format.

是的，比以前更好，但不如它需要的那麼好。因此，我認為，部分原因在於吃零食的機會減少了，因為並非每個人都像經濟衰退之前那樣恢復了全面工作。我們還知道，在阿特金斯，我們的奶昔和酒吧之間的切換水平很高，尤其是我們的餐吧。所以我們現在看到奶昔的強勁增長，有點像十幾歲的增長。上一個季度非常一致，稱之為 3 個季度。我認為這對我們的酒吧業務產生了影響。所以奶昔往往是一個稍微不同的飲食場合。它們往往比零食更能替代膳食，但它們被用於零食。但我懷疑我們正在看到一些將奶昔作為一種格式的轉變。

So -- and that's clearly -- in our history, we've seen that pretty consistently, bars and shakes have high interactions. If you have strong growth on one form, it does have a reverse impact on the other form. I think that's happening right now. And our shake business is been really strong for a sustained period of time. I know that's impacting the business. So look, I think that -- I think that the upside for our business continues to be bars back in full potential. We're paying attention to our ability to recruit new consumers. That appears to be exceeding our expectations. I expect buy rate to come back. I expect us to be starting to grow buy rate again as we move forward. So I'm cautiously optimistic about our ability to do that over the next 12 months.

所以 - 這很明顯 - 在我們的歷史中，我們已經看到非常一致地，酒吧和奶昔具有高度的相互作用。如果你在一種形式上有強勁的增長，它確實會對另一種形式產生反向影響。我認為現在正在發生這種情況。我們的奶昔業務在很長一段時間內都非常強勁。我知道這會影響業務。所以看，我認為 - 我認為我們業務的優勢仍然是充分發揮潛力。我們正在關注我們招募新消費者的能力。這似乎超出了我們的預期。我預計買入率會回來。我預計隨著我們的前進，我們將再次開始提高購買率。因此，我對我們在未來 12 個月內實現這一目標的能力持謹慎樂觀的態度。

And I just want to dive in a little bit on Alexia's question again on gross profits. So I know you were against a really, really difficult comp in this quarter. Your gross profit dollars were down about $3 million, give or take. I don't have the exact number probably, but I think you're at [$121 million last year, $118 million] or so this year. So when you -- and that was maybe a very difficult comp. So I think I've asked this question in the past, when you put a pricing strategy together, you price to protect, I believe, gross profit percentage margin, which would be a more aggressive strategy than just to protect gross profit dollars. Is that the case? And given the rate of inflation, et cetera, would you change the way you might price going forward given that inflation is so high?

我只是想再次深入探討一下 Alexia 關於毛利潤的問題。所以我知道你在這個季度面對的是一個非常非常困難的比賽。你的毛利潤減少了大約 300 萬美元，不管是給予還是接受。我可能沒有確切的數字，但我認為你今年的收入為 [去年 1.21 億美元，1.18 億美元] 左右。所以當你——那可能是一個非常困難的組合。所以我想我過去問過這個問題，當你把定價策略放在一起時，你定價是為了保護，我相信，毛利率，這將是一個比僅僅保護毛利潤美元更積極的策略。是這樣嗎？考慮到通貨膨脹率等等，考慮到通貨膨脹率如此之高，你會改變未來的定價方式嗎？

Yes. Look, long-term, we love the shape of our P&L. We think it's a competitive advantage. It allows us -- if we can get gross margins to around 40% and spend 9% to 10% on marketing and have very attractive EBITDA margins. We think we have a fact creates a sustainable model for us, and that's the shape of the P&L that we want. Obviously, as we came into the year, we thought with the price increase that we took that we would be able to not get -- maintain margins all the way but be pretty close because prices were rising pretty quickly. Prices continue to accelerate, obviously, and then we took our guidance down for the year and then had to take another price increase announced in April, which will [kickstart to hit] from a shipment perspective in about a month or so.

是的。看，長期來看，我們喜歡損益表的形狀。我們認為這是一種競爭優勢。它允許我們——如果我們能夠將毛利率提高到 40% 左右，並在營銷上花費 9% 到 10% 並且擁有非常有吸引力的 EBITDA 利潤率。我們認為我們有一個事實為我們創造了一個可持續的模型，這就是我們想要的損益表的形狀。顯然，當我們進入這一年時，我們認為隨著價格上漲，我們將無法獲得 - 一直保持利潤率但非常接近，因為價格上漲很快。顯然，價格繼續加速上漲，然後我們降低了今年的指導價，然後不得不在 4 月份宣布再次提價，從出貨量的角度來看，這將在大約一個月左右的時間內[開始生效]。

So yes, it's -- look, the inflation has obviously gotten ahead of just about everybody. Our long-term goal is to maintain gross margins and ultimately get back to a 40%. Is that going to happen next year? Probably not. Over time, over our strategic planning horizon, do we think we can get back to 40%? Yes. And that's -- and we're going to do everything we can to get back there. But it's really important for us to maintain gross margin this quarter. Obviously, it was an anomaly 1 lapping last year, just due to the timing of where we had coverage and the acceleration of commodities this year, just that 1 quarter year-over-year, just -- that's what drives the 500 basis point decline. And as I said earlier, you can expect [more or less down 200 basis point] as we go into Q4. So strange times we're living in, but long-term gross margin and the pricing that we do and the efficiencies that we want to get out of the system getting back to 40% are imperative for us to drive growth over the long term.

所以是的，它是 - 看，通貨膨脹顯然已經領先於幾乎所有人。我們的長期目標是保持毛利率並最終回到 40%。明年會這樣嗎？可能不是。隨著時間的推移，在我們的戰略規劃範圍內，我們認為我們可以回到 40% 嗎？是的。那就是 - 我們將盡我們所能回到那裡。但本季度保持毛利率對我們來說非常重要。顯然，去年是異常的 1 圈，只是由於我們覆蓋的時間和今年大宗商品的加速，僅 1 個季度同比，只是 - 這就是推動 500 個基點下降的原因.正如我之前所說，隨著我們進入第四季度，您可以預期 [或多或少下跌 200 個基點]。我們生活在如此奇怪的時代，但長期毛利率和我們所做的定價以及我們希望從系統中恢復到 40% 的效率對於我們推動長期增長至關重要。

Your next question is coming from Jon Andersen from William Blair.

您的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Jon Andersen。

A couple of quick ones. One, just on innovation and growth. I guess I'm curious here with the core categories and then some of the extensions you've done into the snackier portion of the portfolio, it seems like you have certain dayparts pretty well covered. The breakfast daypart perhaps not as much. And so as you think about innovation, more occasions, helping drive the buy rate, is that something that you think Quest and Atkins can play a role there as well? I mean in terms of contributing over time?

幾個快速的。一，只談創新和增長。我想我在這裡對核心類別感到好奇，然後對您在投資組合的零食部分所做的一些擴展感到好奇，似乎您已經很好地涵蓋了某些時段。早餐時段可能沒有那麼多。因此，當您考慮創新、更多場合、幫助提高購買率時，您認為 Quest 和 Atkins 也可以在其中發揮作用嗎？我的意思是隨著時間的推移做出貢獻？

Yes. I like the way you think you want a job. No, I think you look -- you think about it the same way we do, which is where are our occasions today, daypart and then what are the various snacking formats, right? So if you -- quite simply, we look at all the dayparts, what's our development, where might there be gaps? Core bars tend to be, for the most part, earlier in the day, then later than the day, confections and chips tend to be later in the day, right? So that's -- you're thinking exactly the right way.

是的。我喜歡你認為你想要一份工作的方式。不，我想你看起來 - 你和我們一樣思考它，這就是我們今天的場合，白天，然後是各種零食形式，對吧？因此，如果您- 很簡單，我們查看所有時段，我們的發展是什麼，哪裡可能存在差距？在大多數情況下，核心棒往往在當天早些時候，然後在當天晚些時候，糖果和薯條往往在當天晚些時候，對吧？所以那是 - 你的想法完全正確。

And then I would say, if you walked around a grocery store and you looked at all the snacking categories that are low and good things like fiber and protein and [high and] bad things like carbs and sugars, where we think we can design a product that has no taste trade-off that provides you have better for your experience, you can expect us to be trying to innovate in that space. And we can get a product that we think consumers think tastes great, then you would expect us to start thinking about trying to innovate there.

然後我會說，如果你在一家雜貨店裡走來走去，看看所有的零食類別，它們都是低的和好的東西，比如纖維和蛋白質，以及[高的和]壞的東西，比如碳水化合物和糖，我們認為我們可以設計一個沒有口味權衡的產品可以為您提供更好的體驗，您可以期待我們嘗試在該領域進行創新。我們可以得到我們認為消費者認為味道很好的產品，然後你會期望我們開始考慮嘗試在那裡進行創新。

So yes, we divide the world, part of it is how do you segment it and then how do you go innovated against it. One of it is across all the parts of the day. And then the other one is all the categories that exist where there isn't a low carb protein-rich proxy in the category that we think we can design a great tasting product. And I'd just say, I don't like to talk about future innovation. The pipeline is exciting. We've got a lot of -- we have a really talented R&D team, and we've got some fantastic products coming, right? So stay tuned.

所以是的，我們劃分了世界，其中一部分是你如何分割它，然後你如何針對它進行創新。其中之一是一天中的所有部分。然後另一個是我們認為我們可以設計出美味產品的類別中沒有富含低碳水化合物蛋白質的替代品的所有類別。我只想說，我不喜歡談論未來的創新。管道令人興奮。我們有很多——我們有一個非常有才華的研發團隊，我們有一些很棒的產品即將推出，對吧？所以請繼續關注。

One quick one. The guidance -- full year guidance, I think, implies it might be off on this, but it implies, I think, a modest sales decline in the fourth quarter, I think, on an organic basis, excluding the impact of licensing Quest. Can you just -- are we accurate on that and step us through how that could be given the, I think, the expectations for point-of-sale up high single digit in the quarter? And then if you could address the next price increase, it sounds like it goes into effect from a shipment standpoint early August. What -- I don't know if you talked about the magnitude or willing to talk about the magnitude of that?

一快一。我認為，該指導——全年指導意味著它可能會偏離這一點，但我認為，我認為，這意味著第四季度的銷售額在有機基礎上會出現適度下降，不包括許可 Quest 的影響。你能不能 - 我們是否準確，並指導我們如何給出，我認為，對本季度銷售點高個位數的預期？然後，如果你能解決下一次漲價的問題，從發貨的角度來看，這聽起來像是在 8 月初生效。什麼——我不知道您是否談論過規模或願意談論其規模？

Yes. So your last question first, very little impact in this year. This is all about FY '23, so very small impact to Q4 and the fiscal year for the price increase. Let me just run you through how the math works on Q4. So at the high-end of the guidance, it implies that net sales growth of about 1%. So just illustrative purposes here. We're guiding to high single digits. So if we're at 9% consumption in Q4, you take a point off for the pizza licensing you're at 8%. We've built about $35 million worth of inventory through the first 9 months of the year. Some of that was -- we were a little bit light as we exited the year.

是的。所以你的最後一個問題，今年影響很小。這都是關於 23 財年的，因此對第四季度和價格上漲的財政年度的影響非常小。讓我告訴你第四季度的數學是如何工作的。因此，在指導的高端，這意味著淨銷售額增長約 1%。所以這裡只是說明性的目的。我們正在指導高個位數。因此，如果我們在第四季度的消費量為 9%，那麼您在 8% 的比薩餅許可上扣分。今年前 9 個月，我們已經建立了價值約 3500 萬美元的庫存。其中一些是 - 當我們退出這一年時，我們有點輕。

But most of it was higher -- that extra week of inventory, that $20 million to $25 million of extra inventory that's in our system right now that is in the process of coming out. So that $20 million to $25 million is approximately 7%. So that's how you get. If you've got consumption at 9, you take a point on for pizza, I mean you take 7 out for that 1 week of inventory, you get to the high end of 1. Now where are we going to end on inventory. It's always tough to know. We've got some people who can swing it back and forth. We're confident we can manage through it, but it's always a wildcard.

但大部分都更高——額外一周的庫存，2000 萬到 2500 萬美元的額外庫存，目前在我們的系統中，正在出現的過程中。因此，2000 萬至 2500 萬美元約為 7%。所以你就是這樣得到的。如果您在 9 點消費，那麼您在披薩上扣分，我的意思是您在 1 週的庫存中扣掉 7 點，您達到 1 的高端。現在我們將在哪裡結束庫存。總是很難知道。我們有一些人可以來回擺動它。我們有信心可以克服它，但它始終是一個通配符。

The only thing we would add is we saw a pretty heavy takeout in June. Yes. So it's already underway. So I think we had got some questions earlier around why is it going to happen? Are you going to force it to happen? No, it actually happens on its own, and it started to happen. So it looks like it was a little -- on a little bit of delay. Will the full week come out, hard to say, right? So -- but your math is about right. We would expect to [under ship] consumption in the quarter based upon getting back to more normal inventory levels.

我們唯一要補充的是，我們在 6 月份看到了相當大的外賣。是的。所以它已經在進行中。所以我認為我們之前有一些關於為什麼會發生的問題？你會強迫它發生嗎？不，它實際上是自己發生的，而且它開始發生了。所以看起來有點——有點延遲。整週會出來嗎，很難說，對吧？所以 - 但你的數學是正確的。在恢復到更正常的庫存水平的基礎上，我們預計本季度的消費量會下降。

And just the magnitude of the second price increase? I know it's a fiscal 2023 benefit. But generally, maybe talked about the magnitude of it.

而只是第二次價格上漲的幅度？我知道這是 2023 財年的福利。但總的來說，也許談到了它的規模。

Yes, similar to the first one, on average, around 8%.

是的，與第一個類似，平均約為 8%。

Your final question today is coming from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.

您今天的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

I just have a follow-up question on the last question on pricing. So I guess what is your level of confidence around taking an incremental high single-digit price increase. Has your -- has the tenor of your conversations with retailers changed at all over the last couple of months as you look to take more pricing?

關於定價的最後一個問題，我有一個後續問題。所以我猜你對增量高個位數價格上漲的信心程度如何。在過去幾個月中，隨著您希望採取更多定價，您與零售商的談話內容是否發生了變化？

We're proceeding as we expected to proceed. We expect the list prices to change, call it, end of July, early August. We didn't expect it to be easy, and it isn't easy. How is that?

我們正在按預期進行。我們預計標價會發生變化，稱之為 7 月底 8 月初。我們沒想到這很容易，也並不容易。那個怎麼樣？

And can you comment on how you're feeling about the current M&A landscape? And any opportunities…

您能否評論一下您對當前併購形勢的看法？以及任何機會……

Yes, happy to do that. I thought we're going to get through a call it out of an M&A question. So look, there's been an adjustment to valuation expectations, and I think the market is paused. So we're not seeing as much activity. Typically, the pipeline is pretty full. We're constantly looking at things. Pipeline is not so full right now. And I think what's happening is with the IPO market kind of having disappeared, there's really not a lot of alternatives for private companies to transact other than to sell. So I think there's conversations that are going on between sellers and bankers right now, lowering expectations on valuations and that's kind of stall things coming to the marketplace. That be our read. So we're less busy than we've been pretty much any time since we've been public right now.

是的，很高興這樣做。我以為我們會通過併購問題來解決這個問題。所以看，估值預期已經調整，我認為市場已經暫停。所以我們沒有看到那麼多的活動。通常，管道非常滿。我們一直在看事情。管道現在還沒有那麼滿。而且我認為正在發生的事情是 IPO 市場已經消失了，除了出售之外，私營公司實際上沒有太多的交易選擇。所以我認為現在賣家和銀行家之間正在進行對話，降低了對估值的預期，這會阻礙市場的發展。那是我們的閱讀。因此，自從我們現在公開以來，我們幾乎沒有任何時候那麼忙。

Yes. I mean look, we think long term, it's a positive. We think valuations, especially for those growthier assets that may not have the best profitability currently are getting kind of rebased. I think that will create opportunities for us over the next 6 to 12 months once those prices kind of get into the marketplace. But to Joe's point, I think sellers are trying to figure out what their value really is right now versus where they thought it was 12 months ago, and that's going to take a little bit of time. But long term, we're optimistic it's actually going to be a benefit for us.

是的。我的意思是看，我們認為是長期的，這是積極的。我們認為估值，特別是對於那些目前可能沒有最佳盈利能力的增長型資產，正在重新調整估值。我認為一旦這些價格進入市場，這將為我們在未來 6 到 12 個月內創造機會。但就喬而言，我認為賣家正試圖弄清楚他們現在的真正價值與他們認為的 12 個月前的價值，這需要一點時間。但從長遠來看，我們樂觀地認為這實際上對我們有利。

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節結束了。我想把地板翻過來，以獲得任何進一步的或結束的評論。

Yes. Thanks for your participation on today's call. We hope you continue to remain safe, and look forward to updating you on our fourth quarter results in October. Hope you all have a good day.

是的。感謝您參與今天的電話會議。我們希望您繼續保持安全，並期待在 10 月份向您更新我們的第四季度業績。希望你們都有美好的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議網絡直播到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。