Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc (SKWD) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Skyward Specialty first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎參加 Skyward Specialty 2025 年第一季收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would like now to turn the conference over to Natalie Schoolcraft, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Natalie Schoolcraft。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today, I am joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Robinson; and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Haushill. We will begin the call today with our prepared remarks, and then we will open the lines for questions. Our comments today may include forward-looking statements, which, by their nature, involve a number of risk factors and uncertainties, which may affect future financial performance.

謝謝你，米歇爾。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天，與我一起出席的還有我們的董事長兼執行長安德魯羅賓遜 (Andrew Robinson) 和財務長馬克豪斯希爾 (Mark Haushill)。今天的電話會議我們將以準備好的發言開始，然後我們將開放提問環節。我們今天的評論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述本質上涉及許多風險因素和不確定性，可能會影響未來的財務表現。

Such risk factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. These types of factors are discussed in our press release as well as in our 10-K that was previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Financial schedules containing reconciliations of certain non-GAAP measures, along with other supplemental financial schedules, are included as part of our press release and available on our website under the Investors section.

這些風險因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預測或前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。我們的新聞稿以及先前向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 文件中討論了這些因素。包含某些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標對帳的財務報表以及其他補充財務報表均已包含在我們的新聞稿中，並可在我們網站的「投資者」部分查閱。

With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Andrew?

安德魯？

Thank you, Natalie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a great start to the year, reporting net income of $42 million and adjusted operating income of $37.3 million, driven by $28.5 million of underwriting income. For the quarter, our adjusted operating income was $0.90 per diluted share. Each metric I highlighted is the best reported in company history.

謝謝你，娜塔莉。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我們今年開局良好，報告淨收入為 4,200 萬美元，調整後營業收入為 3,730 萬美元，其中承保收入為 2,850 萬美元。本季度，我們的調整後營業收入為每股攤薄收益 0.90 美元。我強調的每一個指標都是公司史上最好的。

Our strong growth this quarter of 17% is a direct result of our diversified business portfolio and the strong execution of our rule our niche strategy. In this quarter, our A&H division and our Global Agriculture unit were standouts, delivering extraordinary growth, while transactional E&S, surety, and specialty programs all contributed nicely to our growth.

本季我們實現了 17% 的強勁成長，這直接得益於我們多元化的業務組合以及我們利基策略的有力執行。本季度，我們的 A&H 部門和全球農業部門表現出色，實現了非凡的成長，而交易 E&S、擔保和專業計畫都為我們的成長做出了良好的貢獻。

In this quarter, we had the widest spread of growth across our divisions that we've experienced as a public company. We believe the diversity of our portfolio is unique to a company of our size and allows us to rapidly reallocate capital to underwriting units that offer the greatest returns, and importantly, to continue to deliver strong growth in operating income when many others in this market will struggle to do so. I'll talk more about this later in the call.

本季度，我們各部門實現了上市公司以來最廣泛的成長。我們相信，我們投資組合的多樣性對於我們這種規模的公司來說是獨一無二的，這使我們能夠迅速地將資本重新分配給提供最大回報的承保部門，而且重要的是，當這個市場上的許多其他公司都難以做到這一點時，我們能夠繼續實現強勁的營業收入增長。我稍後會在通話中詳細討論這個問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark to discuss our financial results in greater detail.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給馬克，讓他更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Mark?

標記？

Thank you, Andrew. We had another strong quarter, reporting company best adjusted operating income of $37.3 million or $0.90 per diluted share and net income of $42.1 million or $1.01 per diluted share. Gross written premiums grew by 17% for the quarter. Agriculture, Accident and Health, specialty programs, transactional E&S, and surety each contributed meaningfully to growth this quarter. Net written premiums grew by 20%, and our net retention of 64.1% was up over the prior year of 62.6%, but in line with our full prior year net retention.

謝謝你，安德魯。我們又度過了一個強勁的季度，報告公司最佳調整後營業收入為 3730 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.90 美元，淨收入為 4210 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 1.01 美元。本季毛承保保費增加了 17%。農業、意外和健康、專業項目、交易 E&S 和保證均對本季度的成長做出了重大貢獻。淨承保保費成長了 20%，淨留存率為 64.1%，高於上年的 62.6%，但與上年全年淨留存率持平。

We added agriculture and credit insurance, and reinsurance as our ninth division. Previously, we consolidated agriculture with Global Property and credit with surety. While in the quarter, this division accounted for 16% of our gross written premiums, there is significant seasonality to these lines, and we expect that this division will account for 10% to 12% of our premiums for the full year. Turning to our underwriting results. Our first quarter combined ratio was 90.5% and included 2.2 points of cat losses, principally from Midwest convective storms and California wildfires.

我們增加了農業和信用保險以及再保險作為我們的第九個部門。此前，我們將農業與全球地產合併，將信貸與擔保合併。雖然在本季度，該部門占我們總承保保費的 16%，但這些業務具有明顯的季節性，我們預計該部門將占我們全年保費的 10% 至 12%。談到我們的承保結果。我們第一季的綜合比率為 90.5%，其中包括 2.2 個巨災損失，主要來自中西部對流風暴和加州的野火。

The non-cat loss ratio of 60.2% for the quarter improved 0.4 points compared to 2024 and is also the best in company history. For the quarter, we did not recognize any prior year loss development, yet we saw favorable emergence. Our reserve position continues to be strong as IBNR now makes up in excess of 70% of net reserves, up from 69% at December 31.

本季非巨災損失率為 60.2%，較 2024 年改善了 0.4 個百分點，也是公司史上最好的。就本季而言，我們沒有發現任何前一年的虧損情況，但我們看到了有利的出現。我們的儲備狀況持續保持強勁，IBNR 目前佔淨儲備的 70% 以上，高於 12 月 31 日的 69%。

As we have discussed previously, the proportion of our IBNR to total reserves has increased, while we have also shortened our liability durations and increased the speed of recognition in claims. The expense ratio of 28.1% improved 0.6 points over the prior year quarter and was in line with our expectations of sub-30s.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們的 IBNR 佔總準備金的比例已經增加，同時我們也縮短了負債期限並提高了索賠確認的速度。28.1% 的費用率比去年同期改善了 0.6 個百分點，符合我們對 30 以下的預期。

The business mix shift continued to impact acquisition costs for the quarter but was offset by improvements in our other operating and general expenses ratio, benefiting from scale of our business. We expect our expense ratio to increase somewhat over the remainder of the year but still targeting sub-30s. Turning to our investment results. We reported net investment income of $19.3 million in the quarter compared to $18.3 million a year ago. In the first quarter, we put $126 million to work at 6%.

業務組合轉變繼續影響本季的收購成本，但受益於我們業務規模的擴大，其他營運和一般費用比率的改善抵消了這一影響。我們預計，今年剩餘時間內我們的費用率將有所上升，但目標仍是 30 歲以下。談到我們的投資結果。我們報告本季淨投資收入為 1,930 萬美元，而去年同期為 1,830 萬美元。第一季度，我們投入了 1.26 億美元，成長率為 6%。

In the first quarter, we found better relative value and structure versus investment-grade corporate credit as credit spreads were near an all-time tight level. The net investment income from our fixed income portfolio increased to $16.7 million from $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2024, driven by a higher portfolio yield and a significant increase in the invested asset base.

在第一季度，我們發現與投資級企業信貸相比，相對價值和結構更好，因為信貸利差接近歷史最低水準。受投資組合收益率上升和投資資產基礎大幅增加的推動，我們的固定收益投資組合的淨投資收益從 2024 年第一季的 1,250 萬美元增至 1,670 萬美元。

Our embedded yield was 5.2% at March 31 versus 4.7% a year ago and 5.1% at December 31. We reported a loss of $2.1 million in our alternative and strategic investments portfolio due to the change in the fair value of limited partnership investments. Our financial leverage is modest as we finished the quarter with a low 12% debt-to-capital ratio.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的內含收益率為 5.2%，而去年同期為 4.7%，截至 12 月 31 日為 5.1%。由於有限合夥投資公允價值的變化，我們的另類和策略投資組合損失了 210 萬美元。我們的財務槓桿適中，本季末我們的負債資本比率較低，為 12%。

Given our undrawn capacity from our revolver and our current leverage, we have ample debt financing flexibility. Our effective tax rate of 18.2% was 3.5 points lower than the first quarter of 2024, driven by stock-based compensation awards that vest in the first quarter of each year. By the end of 2025, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be between 21% and 22%. With respect to the material weakness in IT controls that we reported at year-end, which I'll remind you had no impact on our financial statements, new controls and procedures have been designed are in the process of being implemented. We expect to remediate the material weakness this year.

考慮到我們循環信貸未動用的能力和目前的槓桿率，我們擁有充足的債務融資彈性。我們的有效稅率為 18.2%，比 2024 年第一季低 3.5 個百分點，這得益於每年第一季歸屬的股票薪酬獎勵。到 2025 年底，我們預計全年有效稅率將在 21% 至 22% 之間。關於我們在年底報告的 IT 控制方面的重大缺陷，我想提醒您，這對我們的財務報表沒有影響，我們已經設計了新的控制和程序，並且正在實施中。我們預計今年將彌補重大缺陷。

Lastly, April 1 is when we renew property reinsurance programs, including our cat program, global property quota share and property excess of loss. All of these renewals were orderly, and we are satisfied with the terms and structures of these programs. Our property cat treaty renewed at the expiring structure, specifically a $15 million first event net retention and $36 million cover. Overall, our property placements provide greater protection at lower costs and/or better terms.

最後，4 月 1 日是我們更新財產再保險計畫的日子，包括我們的巨災保險計畫、全球財產配額份額和財產超額損失。所有這些續約都是有序的，我們對這些計劃的條款和結構感到滿意。我們的財產險合約在到期時續簽，具體為 1500 萬美元的首次事件淨留存和 3600 萬美元的保險金額。總體而言，我們的房地產配置以更低的成本和/或更優惠的條款提供了更大的保護。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Andrew.

現在我將把電話轉回給安德魯。

Thank you, Mark. Our outstanding first quarter performance reflects the strength of our diversified portfolio, our underwriting discipline in light of the softening market across several lines, and our ability to adapt quickly to evolving market conditions. Our Global Agriculture unit and Accident & Health division contributed meaningfully to our growth this quarter. This is noteworthy since we're intentionally seeking growth in high-return areas that are less exposed to the P&C cycles. Our investment in our Agriculture unit has been timely, given the changes in the P&C backdrop.

謝謝你，馬克。我們第一季的出色表現反映了我們多元化投資組合的實力、我們在多個險種市場疲軟情況下的承保紀律以及我們快速適應不斷變化的市場條件的能力。我們的全球農業部門和意外與健康部門為本季的成長做出了重大貢獻。值得注意的是，我們有意尋求在受財產和意外傷害保險週期影響較小的高回報領域實現成長。鑑於財產和意外保險背景的變化，我們對農業部門的投資是及時的。

We serve markets that have government-subsidized programs, and we've constructed a well-diversified global portfolio. In specific instances, we've developed unique solutions that are in high demand from our clients, and our results so far are even better than we expected. We are very bullish that we can continue to grow earnings in this business with very attractive returns on capital.

我們服務於擁有政府補貼計劃的市場，並且我們已經建立了多元化的全球投資組合。在具體情況下，我們開發了客戶高度需求的獨特解決方案，到目前為止，我們的結果甚至比我們預期的還要好。我們非常有信心，我們能夠繼續增加該業務的收益，並獲得非常有吸引力的資本回報率。

Our Accident & Health division had strong growth in 2024, driven principally by our captive offering to the medical stop-loss market. The first quarter was a continuation of that trend, plus a return to growth in the traditional stop-loss business as a result of the failures of a handful of MGAs due to poor performance.

我們的意外與健康部門在 2024 年實現了強勁成長，主要得益於我們向醫療停損市場提供的專屬服務。第一季延續了這一趨勢，此外，由於少數 MGAs 因業績不佳而倒閉，傳統停損業務恢復成長。

We had anticipated this given irrational pricing and the market capacity that supports it. Just a reminder that we are not competing against companies focused on large accounts. Our focus is on smaller accounts, generally with 500 lives or less. That said, the poor performance in the large group market has been a contributor to the improving conditions in the market we serve. Our USP around medical cost management is distinct and is one reason we are winning.

考慮到不合理的定價和支持它的市場容量，我們已經預料到了這一點。需要提醒的是，我們並不是與專注於大客戶的公司競爭。我們的重點是較小的帳戶，一般有 500 條生命或更少。儘管如此，大型團體市場表現不佳也是我們所服務市場狀況改善的原因之一。我們在醫療成本管理方面的 USP 非常獨特，這也是我們成功的原因之一。

Our approach to claims is the second reason we are winning as providers are systematically cost-shifting, which is a trend that will increase given the administration's cutback on health care funding. Our competitors are paying and pursuing as compared to our unique capabilities to negotiate final payment before any cash goes out the door. And of course, our talent and technology are the third reason we're winning. We simply have an outstanding team. And as I've discussed in the past, we have a leadership position in technology, including our use of AI and predictive analytics, and risk selection and pricing.

我們處理索賠的方式是我們獲勝的第二個原因，因為供應商正在系統地轉移成本，鑑於政府削減醫療保健資金，這種趨勢將會增強。與我們在任何現金流出之前協商最終付款的獨特能力相比，我們的競爭對手正在付款並追求。當然，我們的人才和技術是我們成功的第三個原因。我們確實擁有一支出色的團隊。正如我過去所討論的，我們在技術領域處於領先地位，包括我們對人工智慧和預測分析的使用，以及風險選擇和定價。

We continue to see a decrease in global property premiums, but we are very pleased with the first quarter performance, with a 95%-plus account retention. And while the market softened very quickly, we were prepared in our underwriting strategy to deploy our primary layer capacity over longer stretches to defend our position. This allowed us to keep accounts, maintain a strong risk-adjusted price while foregoing some premium to maintain underwriting margins.

我們持續看到全球房地產保費下降，但我們對第一季的表現非常滿意，帳戶保留率超過 95%。儘管市場迅速走軟，但我們已做好核保策略的準備，將在更長時間內部署主要層級核保能力，以捍衛我們的地位。這使我們能夠保留帳戶，維持強勁的風險調整價格，同時放棄一些保費以維持承保利潤率。

The strength and performance of our global property business, where we often lead on the primary layer, was rewarded with a strong renewal of our quota share reinsurance program, including an increase in capacity, which will enable us to go further with the underwriting strategy I just outlined. Our lead role in writing the primary layer and, when appropriate, leading the market in settling claims, plus our long-standing relationships with the Chief Risk Officers of our insureds, strengthens our ability to weather what is clearly a tougher market.

我們的全球房地產業務實力雄厚，業績斐然，我們在該業務的主要層面上經常處於領先地位，而我們的配額再保險計劃也得到了強有力的更新，包括承保能力的提升，這將使我們能夠進一步推行我剛才概述的承保策略。我們在撰寫主要保單方面發揮主導作用，並在適當的時候引領市場解決索賠問題，再加上我們與被保險人的首席風險官保持的長期關係，增強了我們抵禦明顯更為嚴峻的市場的能力。

Beyond what I just noted, we had double-digit growth in transactional E&S, surety, and specialty programs. Transactional E&S remains a vibrant division and as a true surplus lines writer of property and liability, our book is somewhat less exposed to the E&S light risk that flow back and forth between the admitted and non-admitted market.

除了我剛才提到的之外，我們在交易 E&S、擔保和專業項目方面也實現了兩位數的成長。交易 E&S 仍然是一個充滿活力的部門，作為真正的財產和責任盈餘線作家，我們的帳簿較少受到在承認和非承認市場之間來回流動的 E&S 輕度風險的影響。

Nonetheless, there are no shortage of instances of irresponsible behavior we observe in our market, in particular, from fronted programs and certain MGAs. In surety, we are very mindful of both the potential economic slowdown and reduced federal funding, including that flowing to states and Munis. We did observe a reduction in bonding activity for federal contractors.

儘管如此，我們在市場上觀察到的不負責任行為的例子並不鮮見，特別是來自前台計劃和某些 MGAs 的行為。可以肯定的是，我們非常關注潛在的經濟放緩和聯邦資金的減少，包括流向各州和市政債券的資金。我們確實觀察到聯邦承包商的擔保活動減少。

But on the other hand, our SBA activity continues to be strong. Overall, Q1 bid bond requests were up 19% from the prior year. And so, notwithstanding my comments on the federal contracts, the demand in Q1 was robust. In programs, our growth was originated by those program managers where we have an ownership position, which is roughly 75% of our total programs division. This ownership is a further measure of alignment in addition to the underwriting performance compensation structures we employ when we delegate authority.

但另一方面，我們的 SBA 活動持續強勁。總體而言，第一季投標保證金請求比上年增加了 19%。因此，儘管我對聯邦合約發表了評論，但第一季的需求仍然強勁。在專案方面，我們的成長源自於我們擁有所有權的專案經理，他們約占我們整個專案部門的 75%。這種所有權是我們在授權時採用的承保績效補償結構之外的進一步協調措施。

Professional lines was down slightly, given softening conditions in the lines we target. Irresponsible competition is coming from a number of sources, but again, fronted programs and certain MGAs seem to work on economics that is distinct from the rest of the industry. It will only be a matter of time before the irresponsible fronts in these MGAs in professional and transactional E&S and the capacity that supports those programs recognize the financial outcomes of their actions. Until then, we'll keep our powder dry. Lastly, Construction & Energy Solutions was somewhat impacted by our intentional actions in commercial auto and a selective approach on other casualty.

由於我們目標線路的疲軟狀況，專業線路略有下降。不負責任的競爭來自多個方面，但同樣，幌子計劃和某些 MGA 似乎在採取與行業其他部分不同的經濟手段。這些 MGAs 在專業和交易 E&S 領域不負責任的表態以及支持這些項目的能力認識到其行為的財務後果只是時間問題。在那之前，我們會保持警戒。最後，建築和能源解決方案在一定程度上受到我們在商用汽車領域採取的有意行動以及對其他意外事故採取的選擇性措施的影響。

That said, we continue to find attractive new business opportunities in both areas. Turning to operational metrics. We saw some improvement compared to the fourth quarter. On renewal pricing, we were consistent with our prior quarter at mid-single digits plus pure rate. Retention improved to roughly 80% for the quarter, driven by business mix and the wrap-up of actions on commercial auto.

話雖如此，我們仍在這兩個領域不斷發現有吸引力的新商機。轉向營運指標。與第四季度相比，我們看到了一些改善。在續約定價方面，我們與上一季保持一致，為中個位數加純利率。受業務組合和商用車行動的推動，本季保留率提高至約 80%。

Lastly, we continue to see strong submission growth, which was in the mid-teens this quarter and over 20% in transactional E&S. Altogether, our lower earnings volatility, consistent earnings growth, our strong underwriting results and strong returns on equity are a direct outflow of the Skyward team's excellent execution of our Rule or niche strategy. We remain confident we'll continue to generate top-quartile returns at all parts of the market cycle.

最後，我們繼續看到強勁的提交成長，本季提交量達到十幾歲，交易 E&S 提交量成長超過 20%。總而言之，我們較低的獲利波動性、持續的獲利成長、強勁的承保業績和強勁的股本回報率都是 Skyward 團隊出色地執行我們的規則或利基策略的直接結果。我們仍然有信心，我們將在市場週期的各個階段繼續創造最高四分位的回報。

I'd now like to turn the call back over to the operator to open up for Q&A.

現在我想將電話轉回給接線員，以便進行問答。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hey, good morning. The first one I had for you is on the growth opportunities you're seeing in agriculture and credit insurance in particular. And maybe if you could just give us a little more color and texture to what you're doing there and how it's driving such good growth?

嘿，早安。我想問的第一點是關於農業和信用保險領域的成長機會。也許您可以向我們詳細介紹一下您在那裡所做的事情以及它是如何推動如此良好的成長的？

Thanks, Alex, and thanks for the question. So first on [AG], I don't know if I want to say too much more in this instance beyond what I said in the prepared remarks. What I will highlight, we hired just a fantastic industry veteran, James Tran, to lead our entry into it. And we had sort of the basic premise that we wanted to have a global portfolio because we want to be well diversified. We didn't want to add volatility to our business.

謝謝，亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。首先關於 [AG]，除了我在準備好的發言中所說的內容之外，我不知道我是否想在這種情況下說太多。我要強調的是，我們聘請了一位出色的行業資深人士 James Tran 來領導我們進入這個行業。我們的基本前提是，我們希望擁有一個全球投資組合，因為我們希望實現多元化。我們不想為我們的業務增加波動性。

And I just think that he's brought that capability. I think we're probably active in probably eight or nine different countries at this point. And what we have seen is just some great opportunities where we've been able to press down. They are in the same opportunities year-to-year, but James and his team have done an excellent job. And I think we just feel very good about how we're approaching those markets, the position that we've built quickly, and the portfolio that we have.

我只是認為他具備這種能力。我認為我們目前可能活躍於八到九個不同的國家。我們看到的是一些我們能夠抓住的絕佳機會。他們每年都面臨同樣的機會，但詹姆斯和他的團隊做得非常出色。我認為，我們對於我們進入這些市場的方式、我們迅速建立的地位以及我們擁有的投資組合感到非常滿意。

And I think just our general sense is that we have line of sight for that to continue, quite honestly, already with some very substantial treaty opportunities that are lined up for Q3. With credit, it's quite a diversified approach. So we started with a focus on mortgage. Obviously, it's a relatively quiet time in mortgage. We're an insurer for Fannie and Freddie, we're reinsurers for the PMIs.

我認為，我們的總體感覺是，我們有理由相信這種情況會繼續下去，坦白說，我們已經為第三季準備了一些非常重要的條約機會。對於信貸來說，這是一種相當多樣化的方法。因此我們開始關注抵押貸款。顯然，抵押貸款市場目前處於相對平靜的時期。我們是房利美和房地美的保險公司，也是 PMI 的再保險公司。

But the fellow that we hired JP Latour to lead that effort has also brought us in to participate on a reinsurance basis and trade credit, and other areas of credit insurance. And I think today, we're probably being a little bit more defensive than we were last year, just simply because the uncertain economic backdrop. And so in this quarter, that really wasn't a particularly meaningful contributor to the growth that you saw in that reporting division.

但是，我們聘請 JP Latour 來領導這項工作也讓我們參與再保險和貿易信貸以及其他信用保險領域。我認為今天我們可能比去年更採取防禦措施，這僅僅是因為不確定的經濟背景。因此，在本季度，這對於報告部門的成長並沒有特別有意義的貢獻。

Got it. That's all helpful. For the next one, I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about the environment and just tariffs in general, and how you're thinking about the loss cost trend across your businesses? I mean, you guys are in a lot of niche areas. So it's not always easy for us on the outside to kind of tell how some of these things would funnel their way into your loss cost trend.

知道了。這些都很有幫助。下一個問題，我想看看您是否可以談談環境和關稅的整體情況，以及您如何看待企業的損失成本趨勢？我的意思是，你們涉足了很多細分領域。因此，對於我們外人來說，並不總是能夠輕易判斷這些因素會如何影響你的損失成本趨勢。

So great question, Alex. And you're right with how you framed it. There's a lot about sort of the specifics of our business that probably makes unpacking it a little bit more difficult. But overall, I think we're still in the view that loss cost trend in our portfolio in total is somewhere in the 5% to 6% range. By and large, we've tried to limit the amount of exposure we have in what we see as being sort of the high-inflation-exposed bodily injury categories in casualty and liability.

這個問題問得真好，亞歷克斯。您的構思是正確的。我們的業務有很多具體細節，這可能會使闡述更加困難。但總體而言，我認為我們仍然認為我們投資組合的整體損失成本趨勢在 5% 到 6% 之間。總的來說，我們試圖限制我們所面臨的風險敞口，因為我們認為這些風險敞口屬於高通膨造成的傷亡和責任人的人身傷害類別。

I think one of the things that we make sure that we do is we're keeping our limits short. Much of what we do in excess is written over our own primary. And so from a casualty perspective, we're trying to keep it in check as much as we can. On the property side, there's probably a few different pieces to it. I think from an inflation related to tariffs, we probably have some in APD.

我認為我們要確保做到的一件事就是將我們的限制保持在較短的時間內。我們所做的許多過度的事情都是在我們自己的本原上寫下的。因此，從傷亡角度來看，我們正在盡力控制它。在財產方面，可能有幾個不同的部分。我認為從與關稅相關的通貨膨脹來看，APD 可能也存在一些通貨膨脹。

And certainly, on the global property side, reconstruction costs are going to go up. I think on the flip side, much of what we have inside of our E&S portfolio is a cash value. And so I think it's less inflation-exposed. And as I've mentioned in the past, as materials go up, we benefit from that on surety because effectively, you're getting a bond that's increasing in size without sort of a proportionate loss cost increase. And so we have some countermeasures that are beneficial in our book.

當然，從全球房地產方面來看，重建成本將會上升。我認為另一方面，我們的 E&S 投資組合中的大部分都是現金價值。所以我認為它受通貨膨脹的影響較小。正如我過去提到的那樣，隨著材料價格上漲，我們從保證金中受益，因為實際上，你獲得的債券規模不斷增加，而損失成本卻沒有相應增加。因此，我們在書中提出了一些有益的對策。

I think the other thing I'd say to you, Alex, is that a little bit surprises because we've listened to the questions that have come in prior calls. And while for us, we're certainly not ignoring the tariffs question. It's clearly on our thinking. We just think that there's so many other things that are going on in the economy to pay attention to, that our leaders have started to prepare themselves and are monitoring whether it be cost shifting in health care going on. I think certainly, tariffs might impact the cost of drugs and particularly from -- coming from other countries.

我想對你說的另一件事是，亞歷克斯，這有點令人驚訝，因為我們已經聽取了之前電話中提出的問題。而對我們來說，我們當然不會忽略關稅問題。這顯然是我們的想法。我們只是認為，經濟中還有很多其他事情需要關注，我們的領導人已經開始做好準備，並正在監測醫療成本是否正在轉移。我認為關稅肯定會影響藥品成本，尤其是來自其他國家的藥品。

I will say that the reduction in federal funds that are flowing downstream to states and to Munis is probably going to lead to a reduction in capital projects and some cost shifting going on. We're watching sort of the credit environment.

我想說的是，流向各州和市政債券的聯邦資金的減少可能會導致資本項目的減少和一些成本的轉移。我們正在關注信貸環境。

We're watching, obviously, safety on job sites and so forth, because you're going to have probably a reduction in oversight at OSHA. And if we have a softer economy, the sort of the maintenance and attention to safety might come under pressure. So we're looking at all these things, and you layer on top of it a potential economy that, as it gets a little bit tougher, you start to see instances of moral hazard emerging.

顯然，我們正在關注工作場所的安全問題等等，因為美國職業安全與健康管理局 (OSHA) 的監管力度可能會減弱。如果經濟變得疲軟，維護和安全的關注可能會面臨壓力。因此，我們正在研究所有這些事情，並在其之上疊加一個潛在的經濟，隨著情況變得更加艱難，你開始看到道德風險的出現。

And so when we think about the environment, we're thinking about all those things. And I have to sort of hand it to the leaders of our organization. They've done an excellent job of sort of outlining which of those things are potentially impactful to each of their businesses and how it is that we're preparing ourselves from a countermeasures perspective. And so I would just -- I'd widen the conversation and say that's the dialogue. And I think we're probably about as well prepared as anybody can be, given the uncertainty that we're seeing right now.

因此，當我們考慮環境時，我們會考慮所有這些事情。我必須將其交給我們組織的領導。他們出色地概述了哪些因素可能對他們各自的業務產生影響，以及我們如何從對策的角度做好準備。所以我只是——我會擴大談話範圍並說這就是對話。考慮到我們目前看到的不確定性，我認為我們可能已經做好了最充分的準備。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Matt Carletti, [Citi] JMP Securities

Matt Carletti，[花旗] JMP證券

Hi, thanks. Good morning, Andrew. Andrew, you talked a bit in your opening comments about some of the extraordinary growth you saw in crop and A&H. And if I recall, kind of last year, there was definitely some, for lack of a better term, kind of seasonality to the growth rate across the year. I was hoping maybe you could just touch on that how much kind of frame Q1 within kind of your expectations for the rest of the year, and how much of that might be helped or hindered by some of the opportunities that are specific to kind of Q1 time frame?

你好，謝謝。早安，安德魯。安德魯，您在開場白中談到了您在農作物和 A&H 領域看到的一些非凡增長。如果我沒記錯的話，去年，全年的成長率肯定存在某種季節性，找不到更好的詞來形容。我希望您能談談 Q1 的時間框架在多大程度上符合您對今年剩餘時間的預期，以及 Q1 時間框架內的特定機會會在多大程度上幫助或阻礙這一預期？

Yeah, thanks, Matt. I appreciate the question because it does give us a chance to talk a little about this. So last year, I think you'll remember, we grew at 20% for the full year. First quarter was a high-growth quarter. Second quarter was a lower growth quarter.

是的，謝謝，馬特。我很感謝這個問題，因為它確實給了我們一個談論這個問題的機會。我想你們會記得，去年我們的全年成長率為 20%。第一季是一個高成長的季度。第二季是成長較低的一個季度。

Third and fourth quarters were again high-growth quarters. And there is definitely seasonality. I'll just -- I'll highlight a few of the items that are particularly important today. The January 1 renewals in A&H is a monster renewal. It tends to make up over 50% of the annual written premium.

第三季和第四季再次成為高成長季。而且肯定存在季節性。我只想——強調一下今天特別重要的幾個事項。A&H 1 月 1 日的續約是一次巨大的續約。它往往佔年度承保保費的50%以上。

And so if you're going to capture a market opportunity, that's the moment in time that you're going to capture it. So it kind of amplifies what you see in terms of growth overall. And so -- and you saw that here, as I mentioned, sort of the backdrop and the reasons why. On the flip side, it's a lower sort of renewal quarter in the second quarter. And conversely, Global Property, the second quarter is the largest quarter for the year.

因此，如果您要抓住市場機遇，那麼這就是您要抓住的時機。因此，它在某種程度上放大了你所看到的整體成長情況。所以 — — 正如我所提到的，您在這裡看到了背景和原因。另一方面，第二季的續約率較低。相反，對於全球房地產而言，第二季是今年最大的季度。

And in the sort of go back two years, you'll see that it was an incredibly large growth quarter in global property. Last year, we were down a little bit, I think, 6% or 7%. And of course, this year, we're in a tougher market. So I wouldn't be surprised if global property shrinks a bit. And so when we do look at it altogether, the second quarter is for us going to be a lower growth quarter.

回顧過去兩年，你會發現那是一個全球房地產成長速度驚人的季度。去年，我們下降了一點，我想是 6% 或 7%。當然，今年我們面臨的市場情況更加嚴峻。因此，如果全球房地產出現小幅萎縮，我不會感到驚訝。因此，當我們整體來看時，第二季對我們來說將是一個成長較低的季度。

The third quarter will be a higher growth quarter. And the fourth quarter is really determined on what the sort of the end of the year competition looks like as folks are trying to close out their plans. But I'll go back to what I said when we gave guidance last quarter, we guided to a mid-teens growth number. We did that last year as well. We guided to mid-teens last year.

第三季將是一個成長更高的季度。當人們試圖完成他們的計劃時，第四季度的情況實際上取決於年底的競爭情況。但我要回到上個季度我們給出指導時所說的內容，我們預測的成長數字將達到十幾歲左右。我們去年也這麼做了。去年我們指導了十幾歲的孩子。

We delivered 20%. This year, we guided to mid-teens again. And I feel confident, notwithstanding some of the uncertainty in the economic backdrop that we're well positioned to deliver that and probably be at a rather distinctive level of growth for the year given our portfolio.

我們的交貨量為 20%。今年，我們再次引導青少年中期。儘管經濟背景存在一些不確定性，但我相信我們有能力實現這一目標，考慮到我們的投資組合，今年的成長水準可能相當顯著。

Great, that's helpful. Thank you. And then if I could ask one more. Just on reserves, I think, Mark, you commented that there was -- obviously, you didn't release anything during the quarter, but that there was favorable emergence behind the scenes, and walked us through some of the other numbers. Could you just give a little color on kind of what areas of the book you're seeing that favorable emergence?

太好了，很有幫助。謝謝。然後我可以再問一個問題。就儲備而言，馬克，我想，你評論說——顯然，你在本季度沒有發布任何信息，但在幕後出現了有利的跡象，並向我們介紹了其他一些數字。您能否稍微說明一下您在這本書的哪些方面看到了這種有利的進展？

Sure. So just a little bit of background. Look, we just finished year-end, right, where we did our ground up. So in the first quarter, what we rely on is our ADE. And in the quarter, 2020 -- or accident years 2020 and after emerged favorably, specifically Matt, in property surety and professional liability.

當然。簡單介紹一下背景。你看，我們剛結束年終工作，對吧，我們已經完成工作了。因此，在第一季度，我們所依賴的是我們的ADE。在 2020 年季度（或 2020 年及以後的事故年），情況表現良好，尤其是 Matt 在財產擔保和專業責任方面。

The occurrence liability lines also developed or emerged favorably for the same accident years, while we had a little bit of increase in the prior accident years, meaning '19 and prior. All in, Matt, we saw favorable emergence across the company, but we didn't recognize that. We've talked a lot about here how we look at reserves relative to indicated seasonality and magnitude. And once the accident years, we feel like are mature, they'll converge. But all in, Matt, it was favorable emergence in the quarter.

對於相同的事故年份，事故責任險也得到了良好的發展或出現，而對於先前的事故年份（即 19 年及之前），事故責任險則略有增加。總而言之，馬特，我們看到整個公司都出現了良好的發展勢頭，但我們卻沒有意識到這一點。我們在這裡已經討論了很多關於如何看待相對於季節性和幅度的儲量。一旦我們感覺到事故發生已經成熟，它們就會融合。但總而言之，馬特，本季出現了良好的表現。

And our book versus indicated, the margin has increased relative to where it was at the end of the year.

我們的帳面價值表明，利潤率相對於年底的水平有所增加。

That's perfect. Thanks for the color, I appreciate it.

那很完美。謝謝你的顏色，我很感激。

Thanks Matt.

謝謝馬特。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Great, thanks so much. Andrew, one last tariff question, if I can. I understand that it's maybe not the most pressing issue. But in terms of the global agriculture book, does it face the same challenges as domestic crop insurance does if crop prices fall? And how should we think about that risk more broadly?

太好了，非常感謝。安德魯，如果可以的話，我還有最後一個關稅問題。我明白這可能不是最迫切的問題。但就全球農業保險而言，如果農作物價格下跌，它是否會面臨與國內農作物保險相同的挑戰？我們應該如何更廣泛地看待這種風險？

Well, look, I mean, you know that here in the US, the federal program is effectively a pricing and yield program. And so there is obviously some exposure relative to price if consumption due to exports and becomes an issue. And similarly, although it's very crop-specific, whether imports might create greater demand domestically. What I'd say to you is that of what we have written so far this year, our US business is about 40% of our portfolio.

嗯，我的意思是，你知道在美國，聯邦計劃實際上是一個定價和收益計劃。因此，如果出口導致的消費成為一個問題，那麼價格方面顯然會存在一些風險。同樣，儘管進口與特定作物有關，但進口是否會在國內創造更大的需求。我想告訴你的是，就我們今年迄今所寫的內容而言，美國業務約占我們投資組合的 40%。

This goes back to my point of being well diversified. And I think that we've taken measures to protect ourselves. And I will also say to you, [Meyer], we have reserved very conservatively. I'd say, well above what we would expect the ultimate to be. And so I feel like even under sort of a stress situation that we're pretty well protected.

這又回到了我所強調的多元化觀點。我認為我們已經採取了措施來保護自己。我還要告訴你，[邁耶]，我們已經非常保守地保留了。我想說，這遠遠超出了我們最終的預期。因此我覺得即使在某種壓力情況下我們也能得到很好的保護。

And then I apologize if I missed this, but is the first quarter acquisition expense ratio a good proxy for the rest of the year? I know you talked about other expenses coming back, maybe later in the year.

如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但第一季的收購費用率是否可以作為今年剩餘時間的良好代表？我知道您談到了其他費用的支出，也許是在今年稍後。

Yeah, Meyer, maybe I didn't do a good job. Yes, I think it's a pretty good proxy. Look, I'm expecting it to tick up a little bit. But yes, I would look at the first quarter as a pretty good proxy, yeah.

是的，邁耶，也許我做得不好。是的，我認為這是一個非常好的代理商。瞧，我預期它會稍微上升一點。但是是的，我會將第一季視為一個相當不錯的代表，是的。

Meyer, the thing that you can imagine is that there's a really wide spread, right? So unsurprisingly, most of our wholesale-driven businesses, right, transactional E&S, our marine unit, which sits in there, our professional lines business, all that is relatively high acquisition costs. Obviously, surety is off the charts. Surety, in fact, depending on what class, can be as much as 40%. On the other hand, we have some quite low acquisition cost businesses.

邁耶，你能想像的是，它的傳播範圍非常廣泛，對嗎？因此毫不奇怪，我們的大多數批發驅動業務，對吧，交易型 E&S，我們的海運部門，我們的專業線路業務，所有這些都是相對較高的收購成本。顯然，保證金超出了預期。事實上，根據類別不同，保證金最高可達 40%。另一方面，我們的一些業務收購成本相當低。

And so part of this is just where we're seeing the growth. And I think I'd echo Mark, maybe a little bit more conservatively. I personally, given how I sort of see the sort of the earn-through and the opportunities that are in front of us, I think that we will see acquisition costs tick up here over the coming few quarters.

因此，我們看到的成長部分就在於此。我認為我會同意馬克的觀點，可能更保守一些。就我個人而言，考慮到我對盈利能力和擺在我們面前的機會的看法，我認為我們將在未來幾個季度看到收購成本上升。

I believe we'll also make some progress -- continued progress on our controllable OUE. But in aggregate, it's probably likely that we're going to go up from kind of that low 28% number, partly due just to the mix of business, and also we're going to continue to invest in our business because we continue to believe there's good opportunities.

我相信我們也會取得一些進展——在可控的 OUE 方面繼續取得進展。但總體而言，我們的佔比很可能會從 28% 的低點上升，部分原因是業務組合的原因，我們將繼續投資於我們的業務，因為我們仍然相信有良好的機會。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Hi Andrew and Mark. So Andrew, in your comments, you spoke about the submission growth and the retention. And all submissions aren't necessarily created equal, right? And so some of the other companies in the public market have reported some volatility around their submissions. So maybe you could give us some texture about what you're seeing in the submissions. Is it all -- are they all interesting opportunities?

你好，安德魯和馬克。安德魯，在你的評論中，你談到了提交的增長和保留。但所有提交的內容不一定都是平等的，對嗎？因此，公開市場上的一些其他公司也報告了其提交內容的一些波動。所以也許您可以向我們介紹一下您在提交的內容中看到的內容。這些都是──都是有趣的機會嗎？

Are you still turning away a big chunk of them? Any color there would be helpful.

您仍然拒絕大部分人嗎？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yeah, that's a great question. So I'll see if I can sort of parse it out. Let me start with the big one that a lot of folks focus on, which is within our E&S area, where I highlighted that in this quarter, we were above 20%, and I would actually say materially above 20%. I think that there's still a very good flow. I will say that the competition for the business is increasing.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。所以我會看看是否能解析出它。讓我先從許多人關注的重點開始，也就是我們的 E&S 領域，我強調，在本季度，我們的成長率超過了 20%，實際上我可以說大大超過了 20%。我認為現在的流程仍然非常好。我想說的是，商業競爭日益加劇。

So I don't -- I wouldn't distinguish by saying we're seeing more submission activity that doesn't fit as compared to prior quarters as much as we're seeing more competition on the things that are flowing. Now I will tell you that we really are a true surplus lines writer.

因此，我不會說我們看到與前幾季相比不合適的提交活動增多，而是我們看到流動事物上的競爭更加激烈。現在我要告訴你們，我們確實是一位真正的剩餘台詞作家。

So a lot of the stuff that we're writing is less exposed. But boy, occasionally, you see some pretty crazy behavior out there, and sometimes you see a lot more activity than otherwise you might see. But good submission activity, and I don't think there's a difference in terms of the quality.

因此，我們所寫的內容很多都不太受關注。但是，偶爾，你會看到一些非常瘋狂的行為，有時你會看到比其他情況下更多的活動。但是提交活動很好，我認為在品質方面沒有差異。

Within a couple of other areas. So for example, in Industry Solutions, that submission activity is kind of running around 10%. And I think that we're pretty focused in terms of our distribution. And quite honestly, we tend to know the books reasonably well. So unless it's new business to those brokers, it might be accounts that we've competed on in the past, haven't won, and we want to compete again this year.

在其他幾個區域內。例如，在行業解決方案中，提交活動約佔 10%。我認為我們在分銷方面非常專注。坦白說，我們對這些書相當了解。因此，除非這些經紀商獲得了新業務，否則，這可能是我們過去曾經競爭過、但尚未贏得的帳戶，而我們今年想再次競爭。

And so I think that's pretty steady. And I gave my commentary on surety, where we don't include bid bonds in our submission activity, but bid bonds are the best early indicator, and the numbers of 19% up over the prior year is a pretty good indicator that there's still a strong flow that's going to follow. And then I would just say to you, as it relates to other parts of our business, global property, A&H, the numbers aren't big enough to make a difference

所以我認為這是相當穩定的。我對擔保發表了評論，我們的提交活動不包括投標保證金，但投標保證金是最好的早期指標，而比上一年增長 19% 的數字是一個很好的指標，表明仍然會有強勁的流量隨之而來。然後我想告訴你，就我們業務的其他部分而言，全球財產、A&H，這些數字還不足以產生影響

But one highlight for you is that in -- just to give you a sense for how strong we're hitting in A&H, our RFP submission count for A&H was up 59% year-over-year, which speaks entirely to what a compelling proposition we've built in that market. We have a lot of distributors, trading partners who want to do more business with us, and we're seeing that in the RFP submission count.

但對您來說，一個亮點是——只是為了讓您了解我們在 A&H 領域表現有多強勁，我們對 A&H 的 RFP 提交數量同比增長了 59%，這完全說明了我們在該市場建立了多麼引人注目的主張。我們有很多分銷商、貿易夥伴希望與我們開展更多業務，我們在 RFP 提交數量中看到了這一點。

Interesting detail. In one of the other answers or -- I mean, I guess it was in your commentary, when you're talking about the surety business, you talked about the government-related work, the federal contractors, and stuff. Can you give us a sense of or size that component? How much of your business is government-related versus private contractors?

有趣的細節。在另一個答案中——我的意思是，我猜是在你的評論中，當你談論擔保業務時，你談到了與政府相關的工作、聯邦承包商等等。能為我們介紹一下該組件的尺寸嗎？您的業務有多少是與政府相關的，有多少是與私人承包商相關的？

Yeah. So the government portion, and I won't get these numbers exact, but the $150 million plus, excluding anything tied to the SBA, is about, I don't know, probably $20 million of our book. And we have a couple of distributors who are really sort of focused on that part of the market. And then otherwise, the business is either business that is private or public private together or public works. And that runs the gamut states, Munis, et cetera.

是的。因此，對於政府部分，我無法給出確切的數字，但 1.5 億美元以上，不包括與 SBA 相關的任何部分，大約占我們賬面的 2000 萬美元，我不知道。我們有幾個分銷商真正專注於這一部分市場。否則，該業務要么是私人業務，要么是公私合作業務，要么是公共工程。這涵蓋了各州、市政債券等等。

And I highlighted the federal sort of piece because it was the one piece in the first quarter that stood out. In fact, it's probably the only piece where we saw an outcome that was less than what we had expected.

我之所以強調聯邦部分，是因為它是第一季最引人注目的部分。事實上，這可能是我們看到的唯一一部結果低於預期的作品。

If I could just slip in one follow-up question on the program business. You were -- you emphasized that you have an ownership position. It feels like in the marketplace, there's growing interest in the program market, or at least a lot of other companies are talking about that. Can you give us just a reminder or a refresher on how you approach new programs and the due diligence process, et cetera, and how you're thinking about that market for the next couple of years?

我是否可以順便問一個有關專案業務的後續問題？你——你強調你擁有所有權。感覺市場上對程式市場的興趣日益濃厚，或者至少很多其他公司正在談論這個。您能否提醒或複習一下您如何處理新專案和盡職調查流程等，以及您對未來幾年該市場有何看法？

Yeah, Greg, thank you, and it's a great question. Let me just start. I think probably most folks are aware that the program world has meaningfully outgrown the rest of the commercial market. And there's a whole bunch of reasons. There's obviously a great deal of private equity and private equity consolidation, a huge amount of money behind it.

是的，格雷格，謝謝你，這是一個很好的問題。讓我先開始吧。我想大多數人可能都意識到程式世界已經遠遠超過了其他商業市場。原因有很多。顯然，有大量的私募股權和私募股權合併，背後有巨額資金。

And I will say that there are some fantastic MGAs, program administrators out there, and I'd like to think that we want to partner with those guys. Our strategy around that world is the same as our strategy with everything that we do that we manufacture, which is we're looking to rule our niche.

我想說的是，有一些出色的 MGA 和專案管理員，我想我們希望與這些人合作。我們在世界各地的策略與我們製造的所有產品的策略相同，即我們希望統治我們的利基市場。

So if we can partner with somebody who has capabilities that we can't replicate on our own, whether they be owing to some technology or product or expertise or distribution relationship or whatever the case may be, and we see them as having a view on how to build a really competitive position and we can partner with them the right way, that's the sort of profile for success. And if you go down sort of our roster of program partnerships, they check the box on those items. Now I'll highlight a couple of other things for you that are really important.

因此，如果我們能夠與擁有我們無法複製的能力的人合作，無論他們擁有的是某種技術、產品、專業知識、分銷關係或其他任何情況，並且我們認為他們對如何建立真正有競爭力的地位有自己的看法，那麼我們就可以透過正確的方式與他們合作，這就是成功的典範。如果你查看我們的專案合作夥伴名單，你會發現他們勾選了這些專案。現在我將向你們重點介紹另外幾件非常重要的事情。

As I mentioned, we have material investments, and that is a further mechanism for alignment. We try to ensure that the mechanisms that we use for compensating the program administrators align as much as possible to our own internal measures for how it is that we compensate underwriters. And so that's a critical component. I'll highlight a couple of other things that are really important. We are very intentional about ensuring that at a minimum, the data flow that we are receiving is as close to equal to the data flow that we have for our internally managed businesses.

正如我所提到的，我們有物質投資，這是進一步的協調機制。我們盡力確保我們用於補償計劃管理員的機制盡可能與我們補償承銷商的內部措施保持一致。這是一個關鍵組成部分。我將重點放在其他一些非常重要的事情上。我們非常有意確保我們接收的資料流至少與我們內部管理業務的資料流盡可能接近。

So that if we want to ask and answer a question on, hey, we want to look at a particular risk factor in terms of the frequency in developed over the first 6 months as compared to every prior accident year, can we answer that question? And we should be able to answer that question as we could with any internally managed internally underwritten business.

因此，如果我們想要提出並回答一個問題，嘿，我們想根據前 6 個月與之前每個事故年份相比發生的頻率來查看特定風險因素，我們能回答這個問題嗎？我們應該能夠回答這個問題，就像我們能夠回答任何內部管理的內部核保業務一樣。

And so whether it be data as a minimum has to be equal, but oftentimes, we're exchanging technology and other things. And the last point I would make that's really important is, I would argue that in many classes in our industry, it is absolutely impossible to perform at an equivalent level to a competent full-stack insurer that has the claims.

因此，無論是數據還是最低限度的數據都必須是平等的，但很多時候，我們交換的是技術和其他東西。我要說的最後一點非常重要，那就是，我認為在我們行業的許多領域，絕對不可能達到與擁有索賠能力的全端保險公司相當的水平。

And now there are instances, for example, we have a brown water green water marine program with a great program administrator, and the claims expertise around that is very specific, and who does the claims is sort of singularly focused on that area of expertise.

現在有一些例子，例如，我們有一個棕水綠水海洋計劃，有一個出色的計劃管理員，並且圍繞該計劃的索賠專業知識非常具體，而提出索賠的人則專注於該專業領域。

But it's really hard in a GL class or a PL class to believe that they're going to do it anywhere near as well as we can. And so in every instance where we can do the claims, we do. And that's a huge difference in terms of how we approach it. And this bifurcation between underwriting and claims and the belief that you can deliver excellent results with those things sort of operating independently inside different organizations, particularly if those organizations are kind of like the larger TPAs is absolutely just -- that's a proposition that I just don't believe in and don't support, and we tend to sort of operate our specialty programs business accordingly.

但在 GL 級或 PL 級中，很難相信他們能做到和我們一樣好。因此，在每一個我們可以提出索賠的情況下，我們都會這樣做。就我們處理這個問題的方式而言，這是一個巨大的差異。核保和索賠之間的分歧以及相信你可以在不同的組織內獨立運作這些業務來提供出色的結果，特別是如果這些組織有點像較大的 TPA，那絕對是 - 這是一個我不相信也不支持的主張，我們傾向於相應地運營我們的專業項目業務。

That's great detail. Thanks for the answers.

非常詳細。謝謝您的回答。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen。

Hey, good morning. So Global Ag, terrific growth. And I'm kind of -- would like to get a little more kind of color on where you're participating in the reinsurance markets. Is it more quota share, excess of loss? Is some of it catastrophic in nature? What countries outside of the US are really big for you? Just try to get a little color around what you like there and the kind of returns, whatever you could share.

嘿，早安。因此，Global Ag 實現了驚人的成長。而且我有點想進一步了解您參與再保險市場的情況。是份額份額更多，還是虧損超額？其中一些是災難性的嗎？除了美國以外，還有哪些國家對你來說真正重要？只需嘗試稍微描述一下您喜歡什麼以及回報類型，無論您可以分享什麼。

Yeah. Thanks, Andrew, and thanks for the question. So I'll share -- this is an area where I'm normally very open and transparent, as an area I'm going to be. I actually listened to another company's call, and a similar question was asked. And that particular CEO was not answering the question fully.

是的。謝謝，安德魯，謝謝你的提問。所以我會分享——這是一個我通常非常開放和透明的領域，也是我將要分享的領域。我其實也聽過另外一家公司的電話，也有人問了類似的問題。但那位執行長並沒有完全回答這個問題。

And I might not answer your question fully because I think there's more you want to say. But that said, look, to just list the countries, and this would not be a complete list. It would include, in addition to the U.S., Canada, Brazil, China, India, Thailand would be a handful, or there are others I'm missing. Those are major ones. It would include both crops as well as dairy livestock.

我可能無法完全回答您的問題，因為我認為您還有很多話要說。但話雖如此，看看，僅僅列出這些國家，這並不是一個完整的名單。除了美國之外，還包括加拿大、巴西、中國、印度、泰國等少數國家，或還有一些我沒提到的國家。這些都是主要的。它既包括農作物，也包括乳牛。

We actually, I think, have a couple of things in aquaculture, believe it or not. So it really runs the gamut. I'd say probably 90% of our exposure is quota share. And yeah, I don't think that there's much more that I can say about it other than, as I referenced in my commentary, at least in a couple of instances, we have a product that we believe nobody else offers in the marketplace, which is part of the reason that we're winning.

不管你信不信，我認為我們在水產養殖方面確實有一些東西。所以它確實涵蓋了所有範圍。我想說，我們大概 90% 的風險敞口都是配額份額。是的，我認為我沒有什麼可以說的，除了我在評論中提到的，至少在幾個例子中，我們有一種我們認為市場上沒有其他人提供的產品，這也是我們獲勝的原因之一。

And as I said, I don't want to go too much further, but this is one of the places where if you bring in one of the best people out there and we surround them with sort of the right kind of capabilities, you can do something special, and I think it's showing up in our results.

正如我所說的，我不想說得太遠，但如果你引進最優秀的人才，並用適當的能力圍繞他們，你就可以做一些特別的事情，我認為這會在我們的結果中得到體現。

That was actually helpful. So the next question is around global property. So I see your gross written premium came off about 18.5%, but the retention was very good. I think you called that out in your remarks. So maybe, Andrew, could you talk a little bit about the pricing environment? Maybe any color on where rates are going and maybe into kind of subcategories of the global property regional, whatever -- again, same thing, whatever you can share there would be of interest.

這確實很有幫助。下一個問題是關於全球財產的。因此，我看到您的毛承保保費下降了約 18.5%，但保留率非常好。我想您已經在評論中提到了這一點。那麼，安德魯，您能否談談定價環境？也許可以對利率走向進行任何說明，也許可以將其分為全球房地產區域的子類別，無論如何 — — 再次強調，同樣的事情，無論您可以分享什麼，都會引起人們的興趣。

Yeah. No, I'd be happy to share quite a bit. So -- and also, thank you for that question. So -- well, first off, we're writing Global 1000 accounts. We're writing accounts with very large schedules.

是的。不，我很樂意分享很多。所以——也感謝您提出這個問題。那麼——首先，我們正在編寫全球 1000 個帳戶。我們正在編寫日程安排非常緊湊的帳戶。

As I mentioned, we're writing the primary layer. What that means is we're writing the layer that sits right above their deductible self-insured retention, which will oftentimes run in the tens of millions of dollars. During sort of a hard market period, we might write, for example, a share of the primary $100 million. And as I mentioned in the remarks, one of the things that we're doing is we're writing over larger stretches. So we might be writing over $200 million, $250 million.

正如我所提到的，我們正在編寫主要層。這意味著，我們正在編寫高於他們的免賠額自保額的層級，這通常會達到數千萬美元。在市場較為艱難的時期，我們可能會寫入例如主要 1 億美元的一部分。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們正在做的事情之一就是在更長的時間內進行寫作。因此，我們的金額可能會超過 2 億美元、2.5 億美元。

And the way that we've been able to do that is I think that there is a greater abundance of -- in addition to, we have a very large line that we work with, with quota share support. And that line, by the way, got even larger by a full one-third as a result of our 401 renewal. But prior to that, we were using that full line and then augmenting it with, I think, what's been a relatively abundant fact market to provide something that is a really substantive primary layer cover.

我認為，我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們有非常豐富的資源——此外，我們還有一條非常龐大的合作線路，並提供配額支援。順便說一下，由於我們的 401 更新，這條線甚至擴大了整整三分之一。但在此之前，我們一直在使用這條完整的產品線，然後透過相對豐富的事實市場進行擴充，以提供真正實質的主要層覆蓋。

And what I'd say to you is in terms of pricing, it's a little bit hard because you're stretching over longer stretches and so forth, but it's definitely down kind of high single digits. But that said, the way that sort of the risk-adjusted pricing runs through for us, we are pretty darn confident that in combination with where we use FAC and so forth, that our risk-adjusted pricing, or effectively our expected net underwriting margin, probably is a lot less than the reduction in pure rate.

我想告訴你的是，就定價而言，這有點困難，因為你要延長期限等等，但它肯定會下降到較高的個位數。但話雖如此，對於我們來說，這種風險調整定價的方式，我們非常有信心，結合我們使用的 FAC 等，我們的風險調整定價，或者實際上我們預期的淨承保利潤率，可能比純利率的降低要低得多。

I will say our results have been so damn good that this is the reason that we were able to not only increase our capacity by a full one-third, we had a very significant increase in participants who support us. We're so well positioned against this market right now. I'm really, really pleased where we are in what is clearly a very, very sort of rapidly changing rate environment. But I think our proposition is one that's rather unique just simply because of the line size that we can bring.

我想說的是，我們的成果非常好，這就是為什麼我們不僅能夠將容量增加三分之一，而且支持我們的參與者數量也顯著增加。目前，我們在這個市場上佔有非常有利的地位。我真的非常高興我們處在一個顯然變化非常非常快的利率環境中。但我認為我們的主張是相當獨特的，只是因為我們可以帶來的線路規模。

So it sounds like you really like your returns in that business. Is there a risk that pricing comes off a lot more sharply in the next year or two ? Or do you think it could stabilize?

聽起來你真的很喜歡這項業務的回報。未來一兩年內價格是否會大幅下跌？或者您認為它能夠穩定下來？

Well, it's come off really fast. I mean like we were tracing it. So last year, this quarter, second quarter last year, I think we were down about 7%. And that's where we really started to see things kind of level and maybe come off a bit. And the third quarter is a very quiet quarter for the global property market, and the fourth quarter is quite an active quarter.

嗯，它脫落得非常快。我的意思是我們正在追蹤它。所以去年，這個季度，也就是去年第二季度，我認為我們下降了約 7%。從那時起，我們才真正開始看到事物的某種程度的平衡，甚至可能有些偏離。第三季度是全球房地產市場非常平靜的一個季度，而第四季則是相當活躍的一個季度。

And so fourth quarter, things came up. It felt like just things just -- the bottom dropped out here in the first quarter. And I -- listen, I don't know. It's one of these things where we like our position. I think we rode the market up as the market presented.

到了第四季度，事情出現了。感覺就像事情在第一季就跌到了谷底。而我——聽著，我不知道。這是我們喜歡自己的立場的原因之一。我認為我們隨著市場表現而推動了市場上漲。

But the fact that we have over 95% account retention tells you that of the 100-plus accounts that make up that book, it's really sticky stuff. And I feel like we're going to continue to generate a good underwriting return under most sort of backdrops. And that compares -- Andrew, I'll remind you that like when the cat markets were going crazy 18 months, 2 years ago, and we expressly said we're not going to just go right into the cat markets because that stuff is going to come off.

但事實是，我們的帳戶保留率超過 95%，這說明在構成該帳簿的 100 多個帳戶中，確實有一些棘手的問題。我覺得在大多數情況下，我們都會繼續獲得良好的核保回報。相較之下——安德魯，我要提醒你，18 個月前，也就是 2 年前，當貓咪市場變得瘋狂時，我們明確表示我們不會直接進入貓咪市場，因為那些東西會掉下來。

I was listening to the commentary of one of our competitors on their earnings call saying, well, the market has gotten soft really quickly, and we're losing accounts. We, of course, that's capacity swapping in that market.

我聽到我們的一個競爭對手在他們的收益電話會議上評論說，嗯，市場很快就變得疲軟，我們正在失去客戶。當然，這是該市場的產能交換。

And we don't want to be in that place. We want to be in a place that we can be durable even as the market softens. And I think global property is a really good example of that. And I think that even if the market softens, yes, could our business be when it peaked out at 250, could it go down to 150, sure. But my guess is that we will find a way to make a good underwriting profit, and we will find a way to maintain a decent position with a good portion of that 100-plus accounts that we do business with.

我們不想處於那種境地。我們希望即使市場疲軟，我們也能維持長久的發展。我認為全球財產就是一個很好的例子。而且我認為，即使市場疲軟，我們的業務在達到 250 的峰值時還能維持下去，但下降到 150 的話，肯定會有影響。但我的猜測是，我們將找到一種方法來獲得良好的承保利潤，並且我們將找到一種方法來在與我們有業務往來的 100 多個帳戶中的很大一部分中保持良好的地位。

That's great. Thanks for the insights.

那太棒了。感謝您的見解。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. Anything on the loss pick when we think about subsequent quarters, you've talked about some of those growth dynamics, and that's very helpful. When we think about the accident year loss pick, is this a good place to go? Or will that move around a little bit?

是的，謝謝。早安.當我們考慮後續季度的損失時，您談到了一些成長動力，這非常有幫助。當我們考慮事故年度損失選擇時，這是一個好去處嗎？或是會稍微移動一下嗎？

Well, I'll let Mark jump in. I think that probably as opposed to the prior years, in select circumstances for this accident year, our loss picks, we started to reflect some of the performance that we are seeing, meaning in specific circumstances, we adjusted down. Some circumstances, we adjust it up. Yeah, look, I mean, I think that setting aside kind of the earn-through on mix, it was a good quarter for us. It was our best ex-cat accident year loss result that we've ever had.

好吧，我讓馬克加入。我認為，可能與前幾年相反，在事故發生年份的特定情況下，我們的損失選擇開始反映我們所看到的一些表現，這意味著在特定情況下，我們進行了下調。有些情況下，我們會進行調整。是的，看，我的意思是，我認為，拋開混合盈利，這對我們來說是一個好的季度。這是我們有史以來最好的除貓事故年度損失結果。

And I think it's a good reference point. I wouldn't encourage anybody to take down their model. So we think that kind of the overall guidance that we gave at the beginning of the year is probably the right guidance. And -- but yes, I think that you won't see a lot of volatility in our accident year loss results, as you haven't seen a lot of volatility in our accident year loss results in the 12 quarters that we've been public.

我認為這是一個很好的參考點。我不會鼓勵任何人拆除他們的模型。因此，我們認為我們在年初給出的整體指導可能是正確的指導。而且——但是是的，我認為你不會看到我們的事故年度損失結果出現太大波動，就像在我們上市的 12 個季度中你沒有看到我們的事故年度損失結果出現太大波動一樣。

Yeah, very good. Andrew, a key part of your strategy has been to hire new people, bring them on, they build out their books, and that supports your overall top-line growth. How is that climate now, your ability to hire, your appetite for hiring? Is this the right time in the cycle to be doing that? Just some perspective would be great.

是的，非常好。安德魯，你的策略的關鍵部分是僱用新員工，讓他們加入，讓他們累積經驗，從而支持你的整體收入成長。現在的氣氛怎麼樣？你們的招募能力如何？你們的招募意願如何？在這個週期中現在是做這件事的正確時機嗎？只要有一些觀點就很好了。

It's a great question. I think that what we are doing, Mark, is that we're evaluating our hiring plans based on what we're seeing in the performance of our business. So if we're performing according to expectations and we don't see things moving to yellow in the markets, we're proceeding. And in other instances, we're unquestionably slowing down. There are a couple of things that we're working on that are strategic.

這是一個很好的問題。馬克，我認為我們正在做的是根據我們所看到的業務表現來評估我們的招聘計劃。因此，如果我們的表現符合預期，我們沒有看到市場狀況轉好，我們就會繼續前進。而在其他情況下，我們無疑地正在放慢速度。我們正在進行一些具有戰略意義的工作。

They tend to be combining the expertise of our organization as it stands today. With technology to potentially go after an adjacent part of the market. And those investments and the resourcing around them are going to continue because they're strategic for us. But I think like if you ask, hey, there's a particular region in surety that we've been looking to fill. And if we have a candidate, we would say, how are we performing?

他們傾向於結合我們組織現有的專業知識。利用科技有可能佔領鄰近的市場部分。這些投資和相關資源將會持續，因為它們對我們來說具有戰略意義。但我想如果你問，嘿，我們一直在尋找能夠填補擔保領域空缺的特定職位。如果我們有候選人，我們會問，我們的表現如何？

Do we have confidence? Do we want to make that kind of commitment right now? And that kind of conversation repeats itself every day in our organization. I think as opposed to a year and two years ago, I think we were just sort of pedal to the metal because we had confidence across the board. Now we're just making sure that we're not making decisions on resources that we're going to regret at a later point.

我們有信心嗎？我們現在想做出這樣的承諾嗎？在我們的組織裡，這樣的對話每天都在重複。我認為與一兩年前相比，我們全力以赴，因為我們對整件事都充滿信心。現在我們只是要確保我們不會在資源上做出將來會後悔的決定。

Yeah, okay. Mark, do you have the cash flow number in the quarter? I think you said you put $126 million to work at 6%. But if you looked at the cash from operations, do you happen to have that number?

嗯，好的。馬克，您有本季的現金流量數字嗎？我記得你說過你投入了 1.26 億美元，利率是 6%。但如果你看一下經營活動產生的現金流，你有沒有這個數字？

I'm pretty sure it's right at $100 million, Mark, but I'll confirm it. I'm pretty sure.

馬克，我很確定這個數字就是 1 億美元，我會確認一下。我很確定。

Okay, very good. Thank you.

好的，非常好。謝謝。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

You hit the bumps. Sector data, you recast that accident year basis, I think, for the recent four or so accident years. When I look at -- and Andrew, this is kind of around, I guess, your commentary on commercial auto recently, pretty cautionary comments. When I look at the accident year loss pick for commercial auto, it's down 6 points, 7 points in the recent accident year 2024. I assume that's just maybe because of repositioning that you've done.

你撞到障礙物了。行業數據，我認為，您可以重新計算最近四年左右的事故年份基礎。當我看到——安德魯，我想，這有點像你最近對商用汽車的評論，相當謹慎的評論。當我查看商用車事故年份的損失選擇時，我發現最近的事故年份 2024 年下降了 6 到 7 個百分點。我認為這可能只是因為你進行了重新定位。

But just any comments you can make there on that pick for commercial auto?

但是您對商用汽車的選擇有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. I think it's three simple things. One is, to your point, it's absolutely about mix. We're down to a book where we really were very satisfied with the mix. Obviously, we've driven a lot of price in as has everybody, no surprise there.

是的。我認為這是三件簡單的事。一是，正如你所說，這絕對與混合有關。我們對這本書的混音效果非常滿意。顯然，我們和所有人一樣，已經抬高了很多價格，這並不奇怪。

But the thing I would absolutely unequivocally point you to is please do look at our frequency. If you look at the '24 year as of 12 months, the frequency is down by over 50% as compared to only five years earlier. And you'll see at every period of seasoning, so 12 months for '24, 24 months for '23, et cetera, et cetera, the frequency is way down. And that frequency is really a key driver, obviously, against an increasing severity backdrop that is flowing through into our loss picks.

但我絕對要明確指出的是，請查看我們的頻率。如果以 12 個月為單位來觀察 24 年，與五年前相比，頻率下降了 50% 以上。您會發現，在每個調味期，例如 24 年為 12 個月，23 年為 24 個月等等，頻率都會下降。顯然，在日益嚴重的背景下，這種頻率確實是一個關鍵驅動因素，而這種背景正在影響我們的損失選擇。

And totally random question. But when we see lumpiness in the, and strategic investments row, I know your strategic investment is more in the private insurance space. Is that -- I assume the lumpiness is more from the alts and not the latter. Just kind of want to check on that.

這是一個完全隨機的問題。但是，當我們看到戰略投資行中的不平衡時，我知道您的策略投資更多是在私人保險領域。是這樣的——我認為這種不平整更多是來自於替代品，而不是後者。只是想檢查一下。

Yeah, it is the alts. And it's the old opportunistic fixed income portfolio, the Arena managed portfolio that is down to 5% of our total investments at this point. That's the driver of the volatility.

是的，它是替代品。這是舊的機會主義固定收益投資組合，Arena 管理的投資組合目前已降至我們總投資的 5%。這就是波動性的驅動因素。

Than you very much.

非常感謝。

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Natalie Schoolcraft for closing remarks.

我目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將電話轉回 Natalie Schoolcraft 做結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for your questions, for participating in our conference call, and for your continued interest in and support of Skyward Specialty. I'm available after the call to answer any additional questions that you may have. We look forward to speaking with you again on our second quarter earnings call. Thank you, and have a wonderful day.

感謝大家的提問、參加我們的電話會議以及對 Skyward Specialty 的持續關注和支持。通話結束後，我隨時可以回答您可能有的任何其他問題。我們期待在第二季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。