Tanger Inc (SKT) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. I'm Cyndi Holt, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations, and I would like to welcome you to the Tanger Factory Outlet Centers' first-quarter 2013 conference call. Yesterday we issued this quarter's earnings release as well as a supplemental information package and investor presentation. This information is available on our website under the investor relations tab.

Please note that during this conference call, some of Management's comments will be forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the Company's property operations, leasing, tenant sales trends, development, acquisition expansion activities, as well as their comments regarding the Company's funds from operations, funds available for distribution and dividends. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially from those projected due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in economic and real estate conditions, the availability and cost of capital, the Company's ongoing ability to lease, develop and acquire properties, as well as potential tenant bankruptcies and competition. We direct you to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties. During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and in our supplemental information.

This call is being recorded for rebroadcast for a period of time in the future; as such it is important to note that Management's comments include time sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date May 1, 2013. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. Following Management's prepared comments, the call will be opened up for your questions. We ask you to limit your questions to two so that all callers will have the opportunity to ask questions. On the call today will be Steven Tanger, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Frank Marchisello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Steven Tanger. Please go ahead, Steve.

Thank you, Cyndi, and good morning, everyone. 2013 is off to a great start as we have achieved significant milestones in the first quarter. Average occupancy within our consolidated portfolio was 98% at March 31, 2013, a Tanger record high for first-quarter occupancy. Same center net operating income growth of 3.9% during the quarter on top of a 6.2% income increase in Q1 2012 extends our streak of positive same center NOI growth to 33 consecutive quarters dating back to the first quarter of 2005 when we began tracking this metric. This internal growth combined with the expansion of our footprint by 8.1%, with the addition of 4 new joint venture properties in the United States and Canada during the fourth quarter of last year, resulted in FFO per share growth of 16.7% during the first quarter of 2013. We are proud of achieving significant portfolio expansion while maintaining a balance sheet that is a fortress. According to KeyBank's leadership report as of the end of March our low leverage is best in class for the mall sector in terms of debt to total market capitalization, total debt to recurring EBITDA, and recurring EBITDA to interest expense. Tanger also ranked at the top of the mall REITs in total return for both the five and 10 year periods with total returns of 122% and 615%, respectively.

I know that many of you want to learn more about our various development projects, but first let me turn the call over to Frank, who will take you through our financial results. I will then follow-up with a discussion of our operating performance, our development pipeline, and our current expectations for the balance of 2013.

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I reported first quarter funds from operations, or FFO, of $0.42 per share beat expectations by a penny and represented a 16.7% growth from our $0.36 per share last year. This year-over-year increase is a direct result of the opening of two new developments of the US and the acquisition of two existing centers in Canada late last year as well as our ability to continue to drive rental rates and grow same center NOI. With low average tenant occupancy costs at 8.4% for 2012, and comparable marketplace occupancy ratios that are 300 basis points or more above our consolidated portfolio average, we believe that internal growth will continue.

On a consolidated basis, our total market capitalization at March 31, 2013, was approximately $4.7 billion, up 17.6% from $4 billion last year. Our debt to total market capitalization was approximately 23.3% at March 31, 2013, compared to 26.1% last year. We also maintained a strong interest coverage ratio of 3.95 times for the first quarter of 2013, up from 3.9 times for the first quarter of 2012. Our balance sheet strategy continues to be conservative targeting minimal use of secured financing and a manageable schedule of debt maturities. Approximately 92% of our consolidated gross leasable area is unencumbered by mortgages. And we have no significant maturities on our balance sheet before November of 2015.

On April 4, 2013, our Board of Directors approved a 7.1% increase in the annual cash dividend on our common shares from $0.84 per share to $0.90 per share. The Company has paid cash dividends each quarter and has raised its dividend each of the 20 years since becoming a public company in May of 1993. Our dividend is well covered within [FAD] payout ratio for 2012 of 56%. At these levels we are able to generate significant incremental cash flow over our dividend, which we plan to use to help fund our future growth or to reduce amounts outstanding under our lines of credit. I'll now turn the call back over to Steve.

Thank you, Frank. I'm pleased to report that we continue to see positive base rental rate spreads for space renewed and released during the first quarter of 2013. This is in part a reflection of the performance of our tenant partners. Straight-line blended rental rate increased 21.2% on the renewal and releasing of space throughout the consolidated portfolio. Lease renewals accounted for 1,135,000 square feet or about 58% of the space coming up for renewal during 2013, and generated an 18% increase in average-base rental rates. The remaining 294,000 square feet was released at an increase in average base rental rates of 32.2%.

Excluding approximately 61,000 square feet of space we leased during the quarter to magnet tenants to upsize existing high-performing stores, straight-line blended rental rates increased 23.3%. And Tanger achieved an increase in average base rental rates on the remaining 233,000 square feet of released space of 46.5%. The excluded space represents approximately 4.3% of the total space renewed and released during the quarter. Net of this exclusion, we executed 303 leases totaling 1,368,000 square feet of renewed and released space. We believe that filling this space with sought after, high-volume brands will improve the quality of our portfolio in the long term.

Positive leasing spreads, together with contractual embedded rental rate increases have resulted in same center net operating income growth for 33 consecutive quarters. During the quarter, same center NOI increased 3.9% as a result of both continued increases in rental rates and from higher average occupancy rates. At March 31, 2013, occupancy for our consolidated portfolio was 98%, up 70 basis points from 97.3% at March 31, 2012. Despite increased payroll taxes for all working Americans and the significantly colder weather in January and February comparable tenant sales increased 2.3% to $380 per square foot for the 12 months ended March 31, 2013, and increased 4.9% for the three months ended March 31, 2013.

Excluding the eight consolidated properties impacted by Hurricane Sandy in the fourth quarter of last year, which represent approximately 2,700,000 square feet or 25% of the consolidated portfolio, consolidated comparable tenant sales increased 3.2% for the 12 months ended March 31, 2013. As is clear from our occupancy rate, there is high demand from the tenant community for space at Tanger Centers. Tanger's low cost of occupancy of 8.4%, along with the continued growth in tenant comparable sales over the long term, have allowed us the opportunity to continue to increase rents while maintaining a very profitable distribution channel for our tenant partners. Tanger pioneered the concept of the ground-up outlet center in 1981 and has developed a reputation within the industry for having refined a skill set for developing, leasing, operating, and marketing high-quality outlet centers. The high demand for outlet space, coupled with our reputation within the industry, has afforded Tanger a robust external growth pipeline throughout the United States and Canada.

So let me turn to development. Recently, more of our development opportunities have been via joint ventures. And we continue to get questions about this trend. Joint ventures are common in the real estate business. While we would prefer to develop projects that we own 100%, in our experience the quality of any development and thus the ability to provide the best tenant mix is ultimately contingent upon the quality of the site. We are willing to partner with others in order to obtain the best site for our tenants in a given market. Our development pipeline is as deep as it's ever been in our 32 year history. We currently have 2 projects under construction. We plan to open our ground up development in the Washington DC market at National Harbor in November. And to open a 20,000 square foot expansion of our highly productive center in Sevierville, Tennessee, by the end of the third quarter. Our most recently completed project is an approximately 40,000 square foot expansion of our center in Gonzales, Louisiana, that opened last month, adding great new brands to the center including Ann Taylor LOFT, Brooks Brothers, J. Crew, and Under Armour.

I am pleased to announce that we have obtained the necessary permits and the tenant commitments to break ground on two additional projects in the next two weeks. On May 15, 2013, we will break ground at our Kanata site in Ottawa, Ontario. This 293,000 square foot outlet center will be our first ground-up development in Canada. On the following day, we will break ground in Cookstown, Ontario, located 45 miles north of Toronto. This project will expand the existing outlet center, which was acquired in December 2011, to 320,000 square feet or approximately double its current size. Tanger and co-owner RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust, each own 50% interest in these projects, which we currently expect to open by the end of 2014.

In addition to these projects, we have good visibility on four new developments and two expansions that we plan to deliver in the next 24 months. These include domestic projects at Foxwood Resort Casino in Mashantucket, Connecticut; in Charlotte, North Carolina; in Columbus, Ohio; in Scottsdale, Arizona; and a small expansion of our center in Park City, Utah; as well as a small expansion of our Canadian outlet center in Saint Sauveur, Quebec, in the Montreal market. Two weeks ago, we announced our plan to form a partnership with the Peterson Companies for a proposed development of a new Tanger Outlet Center in Clarksburg, Maryland, located 27 miles northwest of the Washington DC and 36 miles west of Baltimore. This project is in the early stages of pre-development. We remain optimistic about the growth prospects of our Company and for our industry as shoppers continue to seek branded value. We believe the tenant community continues to indicate its desire to expand into new markets in the United States and Canada with Tanger as a preferred partner.

With respect to earnings guidance, based on our current view of market conditions and trends, we are raising the low end of our previous guidance for 2013. We currently expect our estimated diluted net income will be between $0.77 and $0.81 per share, and our FFO will be between $1.77 and $1.81 per share. Our estimates do not include the impact of any rent termination fees, any potential refinancing transactions, the sale of any out parcels of land, or the sale or acquisition of any properties. Our guidance includes a projected increase in same center net operating income of approximately 4%, and is based on average general and administration expenses of approximately $9.5 million to $10 million per quarter. We have over 2,700 leases with good credit, brand name tenants who have historically provided a continuous and predictable cash flow in good times and in challenging times. No single tenant accounts for more than 6.6% of our base and percentage rental revenues, or 7.9% of our gross leasable area. In addition, approximately 90% of our total revenues are expected to be derived from contractual base rents and tenant expense reimbursements.

As we near the 20th anniversary of our IPO in May of this year, outlet shopping is fashionable and the Tanger Outlets brand continues to garner the respect of shoppers and retailers. The value proposition is embedded in the lifestyle of today's consumer. And outlets are the natural destination of choice for branded apparel. The old adage is true. In good times, people love a bargain, and in tough times like these, people need a bargain. It is the value proposition that makes the outlet distribution channel profitable and sustainable for our tenants and for our Company. And now I'd be happy to open the line for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Your first question comes from the line of Todd Thomas from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Good morning. This is Grant Kenney on for Todd. Looking to get some more color on the 61,000 ft.² most space that was released to magnet tenants. Just given that the portfolio is roughly 98% occupied, what centers did the leasing activity occur at? And what were the circumstances given the situation where you might provide like a 20% or so rent concession to these tenants?

Well, there were several of our properties amongst them; Barstow, California; Sevierville, Tennessee; Gonzales, Louisiana. We have always tried to improve the productivity of each of our assets. The way to do that is to expand the highest volume tenants in our portfolio, in each of these centers. And we will continue to do that. And over time, the productivity of the portfolio in each of these centers will increase. This is a consistent pattern that we've done for 30 years.

Okay. Can you say who the high-performing tenants were that are expanding?

We are not going to identify the individual tenants, but you can assume that they're 4 or 5 of the highest volume tenants in the outlet industry.

Okay. Thanks. And then on the Clarksburg development, we've seen some local reports just about a nearby plot of land that was originally slated for healthcare, I think like a hospital or medical office. And now appears to be slated for outlet shopping. Can you talk about potential competition in that market? And just give us a sense for your confidence level about that project moving forward?

Every market is competitive. And this will be a very high volume, very successful area for outlet shopping. And we have no doubt there will be competitive sites. We will -- we're going about the permitting and entitlement process now. We just announced the project recently. And we are in what we call early predevelopment stages.

Okay. Thank you. And lastly, just with ICSC coming up, what would be the primary focus of the team in Las Vegas? And what are the top priorities heading to the convention?

We are a dynamic growth Company. Our top priority is leasing our new development sites across the United States and Canada. And completing the renewals and re-tenanting of our existing properties.

Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Christy McElroy from UBS.

Hi. Good morning.

Hi, Christy.

Couple questions on the development pipeline. Regarding the construction in progress in the unconsolidated balance sheet is all of that related to National Harbor? And is the land in there as well? Or is the project on a ground lease?

Are you speaking about the CIP?

Yes, the CIP and the unconsolidated balance sheet.

Yes.

I think it's about $11 million

Yes, that relates to National Harbor

And is the land in there?

As well as the land, yes.

Okay. And given that they are either sort of in progress or close, can you discuss pre-leasing progress on National Harbor, Kanata, and Cookstown?

Sure. At the National Harbor, we are about 83% committed as of this time. We fully expect to be at or above 90% by November when we open. The other projects, in Ottawa we are north of 50% and that's the target for us to begin construction. And in Cookstown we are about 53% committed on the expansion also. So, we are going to move ahead with that.

Got it. And then just a follow-up on Clarksburg, was that a project that Peterson was working on already and brought you in? Or did you source the project together? And since it hasn't been added to the development schedule yet, I'm wondering if there's any metrics that you can share with us, like projected costs and timing that type of thing?

We are in the very early predevelopment stages. The Peterson Company has identified this site and has been working on it for quite some time. We're working with the local community, trying to obtain the necessary entitlements and permits, and we are well along that process.

Great. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Carol Kemple from Hilliard Lyons.

Good morning. Congrats on a nice quarter.

Thanks, Carol. It's nice for you to say that.

I noticed your Scottsdale project looks like square feet wise it's a little smaller than some of your centers have been in the past. Is that just a function of so much retail in Scottsdale? Or what's the reasoning behind the size there?

There's a very large, 20-acre, specialty use retail going next to us. So we consolidated our site to accommodate about 200,000 feet and it will be attached to the specialty retail.

Okay. And then, as far as new leasing in the outlet centers, are you seeing any particular different groups, maybe home furnishing, or anybody entering the outlet centers that hasn't been that active in the past year or so?

It's reasonable to assume that as the housing market rebounds and family formation continues that there will be products associated with the home. Linens, tabletop, furniture. So yes. But again, we are 98% or so leased, with waiting lists at several or most of our properties. So it's difficult to accommodate these tenants, but we are talking to them.

Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay from RBC.

Good morning, everyone. Steve, I believe you mentioned in the past that there were 17 markets that needed an outlet center. Has this number changed at all?

Sure, Wes. That comment was made about two years ago. And there's probably more markets now, as some of the 17 have been accommodated through the last two years of growth in our sector. We've identified more and more markets. We're not going to quantify the number of markets. We think there's a tremendous opportunity throughout the country to expand outlet shopping. It is a very small sector of retail right now, but probably the highest growth area.

Okay. And sticking with that, with a high occupancy in the centers and strong demand from retailers, can we actually see an increase in the size of future outlet centers?

We're comfortable right now with the size of existing centers. It provides consumers with anywhere from 75 to 100 different shopping choices. The average size of our stores is about 4,000 feet. We are comfortable with that. We'd rather build that size center and keep it filled and highly productive then overbuild in a marketplace and have to put lesser quality folks in at lesser volume.

Okay. Thanks, Stephen. Nice quarter.

Thank you, very much.

(Operator Instructions)

Your next question comes from Ben Yang from Encore Partners. Or Evercore Partners, sorry.

Hi. Good morning, guys. When you look back over the portfolio, say over the past four or five years or so, they're obviously much higher today than they were back then. But at the same time, your occupancy costs has stayed essentially flat. And I'm sure the answer is probably it's a mix issue. But is there any other reason your occupancy costs hasn't really fallen very much as your sales have risen?

Well, let me correct a few things, Ben. And good morning to you. Our occupancy costs five years ago was about 7.4% and today it's about 8.5%. So that's about a 15% increase in our occupancy costs. Our sales have grown and our tenants, because their sales have grown, are able to pay more rent. As we have mentioned numerous times, our target for new development leases is 10% to 11% occupancy costs, which is a fair price for the volume our tenants do. The tenants are the ones that decide whether or not they want to pay rent in a particular site and how much. We think that that's a fair occupancy cost where the tenants do well and we do okay.

Well, I'm just looking back and back in '09 your occupancy costs was actually higher than it was back when you reported in '12 and your sales are about 10% plus higher so that's not a bad thing. There's obviously still room for you guys to push that higher. But it's just a little interesting to see that hasn't really fallen, like I said, given the fact that obviously it takes some time for leases to roll for you to take advantage of the rising sales environment. But it doesn't sound like there's anything kind of unusual going on, I guess at this point?

I'm happy to answer a question if there's one there.

Well, I mean I wasn't really clear if you look back to '09. It still looks like kind of occupancy costs have kind of flattened out while your sales have risen. But, I guess maybe it's just the timing issue at this point for you guys for those metrics to kind of move in the direction you would have expected.

Given the square footage we have that comes up for renewal with contractual obligations, it is difficult to adjust occupancy costs overnight. We certainly do it over time. And I think our rental rate increases that we've been able to obtain historically show that we are able to capture that embedded growth once we control the space.

Great. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Smith from Bank of America.

Good morning. This is Katie Hutchins on for Craig. Just to a question on the development of Columbus. Simon mentioned that there's a very competitive market in Columbus as a lot of competing real estate. Just wanted to know your perspective on the project there and what you're seeing in the market?

It's a very competitive market with a lot of competing real estate.

Okay. Thanks.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to the presenter.

Well, I want to thank all of you for participating on the call today and your interest in our Company. Tanger is the only public REIT with a pure outlet portfolio. We have a conservatively structured balance sheet, high brand recognition, and a tenured management team with a disciplined development approach. Our strong portfolio of geographically diverse spread operating properties has historically provided significant returns for our shareholders. And we have a deep pipeline of external growth opportunities. Frank and I are always available to answer any questions you may have. Thank you, again. Have a great day. Think outlets. Think Tanger.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.