SVB Financial Group (SIVB) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the SVB Financial Group Q4 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我叫布倫特，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 SVB Financial Group 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Meghan O'Leary, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, please go ahead.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Meghan O'Leary。女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Brent, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Our President and CEO, Greg Becker; and our CFO, Dan Beck, are here and will be joined by other members of our management team for Q&A regarding our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results.

謝謝布倫特，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Greg Becker；和我們的首席財務官丹·貝克 (Dan Beck) 都在這裡，我們管理團隊的其他成員將與您一起就我們的第四季度和 2021 年全年財務業績進行問答。

We'll be making forward-looking statements during this call, and actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in our earnings release dealing with forward-looking information, which applies equally to statements made in this call.

我們將在此次電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看我們的收益發布中涉及前瞻性信息的免責聲明，該聲明同樣適用於本次電話會議中的聲明。

In addition, some of our discussion may include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Information about those measures, including reconciliation to GAAP measures, may be found in our SEC filings, specifically our financial release and slide deck.

此外，我們的一些討論可能包括對非 GAAP 財務指標的引用。有關這些措施的信息，包括與 GAAP 措施的協調，可以在我們的 SEC 文件中找到，特別是我們的財務發布和幻燈片。

And now I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Greg Becker.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Greg Becker。

Thanks, Meghan, and thank all of you for joining us today. We're pleased to be reporting another quarter of strong growth and profitability. Our core business continues to fire on all cylinders with a growing balance sheet, healthy net interest income in spite of NIM pressure, robust fee income and excellent credit quality.

謝謝，梅根，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們很高興地報告又一個季度的強勁增長和盈利能力。我們的核心業務繼續全速運轉，資產負債表不斷增長，淨利息收入在 NIM 壓力下保持健康，收費收入強勁，信用質量出色。

While warrants and investment gains moderated from record levels in Q3, we see continued strength across our entire business. We are reiterating our strong 2022 outlook and raising our expectations for loan growth and net interest income. In addition, our outlook does not include the significant positive impact of future short-term rate increases, which seem increasingly likely. We filed our earnings materials earlier this afternoon, and they are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

雖然認股權證和投資收益從第三季度的創紀錄水平有所放緩，但我們看到整個業務的持續增長。我們重申我們對 2022 年的強勁展望，並提高了對貸款增長和淨利息收入的預期。此外，我們的展望不包括未來短期加息的重大積極影響，這種可能性似乎越來越大。我們今天下午早些時候提交了我們的收益材料，它們可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

And with that, I'll ask the operator to open up the lines and turn it over for questions. Thank you.

有了這個，我會要求接線員打開線路並將其移交給問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe just in your letter, you mentioned public market volatility a couple of times. When I look at your results, extremely strong. The outlook is strong. But when you look at the stock performance since October, it's tracked what we are seeing in with tech stocks in the IPO market. Remind us in terms of if we do have a sustained sell-off in technology, higher growth stocks, where will that manifest itself in terms of your growth outlook, be it credit, be it in terms of fee or balance sheet growth.

我想也許就在您的信中，您曾多次提到公開市場波動。當我看你的結果時，非常強大。前景看好。但是，當您查看 10 月以來的股票表現時，它會跟踪我們在 IPO 市場上看到的科技股。提醒我們，如果我們確實在技術、高增長股票方面出現持續拋售，那麼這將在您的增長前景方面體現在哪裡，無論是信貸、費用還是資產負債表增長。

Yes. So I'll try to answer it in a couple of different ways, Ebrahim, and then Marc Cadieux may want to talk about credit or Mike may want to talk about the commercial bank. When you see the volatility that we've seen in public markets, there's a few places that you could see that. Obviously, in any ECM business we have in the investment bank, that could be one area. But I'll counter that with the upside of we have a lot of M&A capabilities, and so I think M&A will pick up. So I actually think it will offset, and there is more upside there. And we can get into investment banking a little bit later. So that's one place.

是的。所以我會嘗試用幾種不同的方式來回答這個問題，Ebrahim，然後 Marc Cadieux 可能想談談信貸，或者 Mike 可能想談談商業銀行。當你看到我們在公開市場上看到的波動時，你可以在幾個地方看到。顯然，在我們投資銀行的任何 ECM 業務中，這可能是一個領域。但我會反駁說，我們有很多併購能力，所以我認為併購將會增加。所以我實際上認為它會抵消，而且還有更多的好處。我們可以稍後進入投資銀行業務。那是一個地方。

Second place is in the volatility we would see in moderating warrant and investment gains, which we talked about in the letter. And so clearly, if we stay in this place for a material period of time where tech stocks are down, you could see some compression there. But still, we expect -- even with some compression, we still believe it will be healthy in 2020.

其次是我們在緩和權證和投資收益中看到的波動性，我們在信中談到了這一點。很明顯，如果我們在科技股下跌的這段時間裡停留在這個地方，你會看到那裡出現一些壓縮。但是，我們仍然預計——即使有一些壓縮，我們仍然相信它在 2020 年將是健康的。

Credit quality-wise, I'll give my perspective, and then Marc may want to add. You really have to see the ripple effect in a pretty material way, right? Valuations are not what repays loans. You have cash flow and cash that repays loans. And the companies, public and private, are incredibly strong from a balance sheet perspective, and their ability to raise money is also very strong. So we don't see -- and the outlook, obviously, is very healthy. We think it's going to be healthy even if there is some volatility in the market.

信用質量方面，我會給出我的觀點，然後馬克可能想補充。你真的必須以一種非常物質的方式看到漣漪效應，對吧？估值不是償還貸款的依據。你有現金流和償還貸款的現金。從資產負債表的角度來看，這些公司，無論是上市公司還是私營公司，都非常強大，它們籌集資金的能力也非常強。所以我們看不到 - 顯然，前景非常健康。我們認為即使市場出現一些波動，它也會保持健康。

So those are a few places that you could see it and maybe new client growth. But again, we've seen, for the last 3 years, a really nice tick up in our new client additions. And we still obviously are very bullish on the innovation economy, and so I don't see that slowing down. So a temporary volatility in the public markets, net-net, isn't going to have that material of an impact.

所以這些是你可以看到的幾個地方，也許還有新的客戶增長。但是，在過去的 3 年裡，我們又一次看到，我們的新客戶增加非常好。而且我們顯然仍然非常看好創新經濟，所以我認為這種趨勢不會放緩。因此，公開市場的暫時波動不會產生重大影響。

Got it. I guess just a separate question maybe around rate sensitivity for you, Dan. So you've laid out the impact from rate hikes, both on NII and investment fees. Talk to us about, one, cash came down a fair bit this quarter. How are you thinking about the bond book in terms of what are we adding, duration and credit-wise? And is there any meaningful credit risk in that corporate bond portfolio that you added over the last few years? Just give us some color into that if you could.

知道了。丹，我想這只是一個單獨的問題，可能與您的利率敏感性有關。所以你已經列出了加息對 NII 和投資費用的影響。跟我們談談，第一，本季度現金下降了很多。從我們添加的內容、持續時間和信用方面來看，您如何看待債券簿？您在過去幾年中添加的公司債券投資組合中是否存在任何有意義的信用風險？如果可以的話，請給我們一些顏色。

Yes, Ebrahim. So on the first question, specifically, if you look at cash balances, as we've talked about in previous years, there's a pretty substantial amount of distributions that happen around private equity and venture capital. We saw that plus the -- effectively putting over $20 billion to work in the investment securities portfolio in the quarter. So we're still bullish on liquidity as you see in the guidance for 2022.

是的，易卜拉欣。所以關於第一個問題，具體來說，如果你看看現金餘額，正如我們在前幾年所討論的那樣，私募股權和風險資本周圍發生了相當多的分配。我們看到了這一點 - 有效地將超過 200 億美元用於本季度的投資證券組合。因此，正如您在 2022 年的指導中看到的那樣，我們仍然看好流動性。

Now when we look at the investment securities portfolio and where we're putting money to work, based on the current environment, we'd probably be putting money to work in the 1.65%, 1.75%range but the vast majority of that still being agency mortgage backs, mortgage collateral, things along those lines. The corporate book is still quite small, and that's all high credit quality. So don't expect to see any issues there from a credit perspective.

現在，當我們查看投資證券組合以及我們投入資金的地方時，根據當前環境，我們可能會將資金投入在 1.65%、1.75% 的範圍內，但其中絕大多數仍在機構抵押貸款支持，抵押抵押品，類似的東西。公司賬簿仍然很小，這都是高信用質量。因此，不要期望從信用角度來看會出現任何問題。

So the good news at least on where we're putting money to work is that, that is above effectively the yield of the portfolio. So the margin compression that we've been seeing by putting money to work underneath the securities yield seems to be abating in this better rate environment.

因此，至少在我們將資金投入工作的地方的好消息是，這高於投資組合的有效收益率。因此，在這種更好的利率環境下，我們通過將資金投入證券收益率之下所看到的利潤率壓縮似乎正在減弱。

And do you expect any difference in deposit behavior than this cycle versus what we saw in '16, '17 just given the Fed might be hiking at a much faster pace? You have larger customers. Do either of those dynamics change how deposit betas, the mix shift could behave this cycle versus last?

考慮到美聯儲可能會以更快的速度加息，您是否預計存款行為會比這個週期與我們在 16 年、17 年看到的有所不同？你有更大的客戶。這些動態中的任何一個是否會改變存款貝塔、混合轉變在這個週期與上一個週期的表現？

Yes. Ebrahim, we're watching that and modeling sensitivities to that. All in, in our rate sensitivity, we've got a 60% deposit beta, and that's on the interest-bearing balances that we have in the portfolio, which is consistent with the last cycle. And we've effectively, for conservatism, modeled a faster beta in some of these net interest income assumptions, meaning that they would take place sooner in the rate cycle than we experienced during the last hike.

是的。易卜拉欣，我們正在觀察並模擬對此的敏感性。總而言之，在我們的利率敏感性方面，我們有 60% 的存款貝塔，這是我們在投資組合中擁有的計息餘額，這與上一個週期一致。而且，出於保守主義的考慮，我們有效地在其中一些淨利息收入假設中建立了一個更快的貝塔模型，這意味著它們在利率週期中的發生時間將比我們在上次加息期間經歷的要早。

So we feel like we've got some measure of conservatism in there just to take into consideration the fact the Fed could move faster and client behavior could be different this time. But that's how we're getting comfortable with that all-in $100 million to $130 million annualized pretax net interest income number.

所以我們覺得我們已經採取了一些保守主義措施，只是為了考慮到美聯儲可能會更快採取行動並且這次客戶行為可能會有所不同的事實。但這就是我們對 1 億至 1.3 億美元的年化稅前淨利息收入數字感到滿意的方式。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Alexopoulos with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Alexopoulos。

I'm still at JPMorgan. Greg, I wanted to start with the environment. So we're obviously paying a lot of attention to the equity markets. But are VCs getting more cautious given the correction in tech stocks now playing out? And with SPAC stocks seeing even more a bit of a beating, are private companies starting to see down rounds?

我還在摩根大通。格雷格，我想從環境開始。因此，我們顯然非常關注股票市場。但鑑於科技股的調整正在上演，風險投資公司是否變得更加謹慎？隨著 SPAC 股票受到更多打擊，私營公司是否開始看到低價融資？

So it's very early when this -- since this correction in the tech market has played out. I would say the engagement we have in our discussions, we're paying attention, very close attention to it, but we really haven't seen it. So our channel checks and talking with our clients and talking with venture capital is still very active. And I think you have to -- could there be a little bit of a slowdown? It's possible. Again, we haven't seen it yet. But you have to remember, there's so much money that was raised last year. There's so much dry powder, and they need to put it to work.

所以現在還為時尚早——因為科技市場的這種調整已經結束。我會說我們在討論中的參與，我們正在關注，非常密切地關注它，但我們真的沒有看到它。所以我們的渠道檢查和與客戶的交談以及與風險投資的交談仍然非常活躍。而且我認為你必須 - 會不會有一點放緩？這是可能的。同樣，我們還沒有看到它。但是你必須記住，去年籌集了很多錢。乾粉太多了，他們需要付諸行動。

And so could there be some valuation corrections in a later stage? Yes, there could be as companies look to raise money. But if they do, they're still at healthy valuations. And so I think companies need to raise money. There's ample money out there for them to raise money. Could they hold out and wait for a high valuation? Possibly. But again, we're just not seeing it yet. And I think I have to wait at least a quarter or 2 to really see if there's any -- a trend that start -- anything that starts and then a trend beyond that.

那麼後期會不會有一些估值修正？是的，可能會有公司尋求籌集資金。但如果他們這樣做了，他們的估值仍然是健康的。所以我認為公司需要籌集資金。那裡有足夠的錢供他們籌集資金。他們能堅持並等待高估值嗎？可能吧。但同樣，我們還沒有看到它。而且我認為我必須至少等待一兩個季度才能真正看到是否有任何 - 開始的趨勢 - 任何開始的趨勢，然後是超越該趨勢的趨勢。

Okay. I want to follow up on that. So VCs and PE firms are sitting on a record dry powder. But if the exit markets were to get disrupted, do you think we would see the pace of investments slow the way we've seen in other cycles? Or because of all this dry powder, do you think that firms will just invest right through a market disruption?

好的。我想跟進。因此，風險投資公司和私募股權公司坐擁創紀錄的干粉。但是，如果退出市場受到干擾，您認為我們會看到投資步伐像我們在其他週期中看到的那樣放緩嗎？或者因為所有這些幹火藥，你認為公司會在市場混亂的情況下直接投資嗎？

Well, when you go back and talk about cycles, right, I mean, the last time we had it, I'll call it, a dip was back in 2016. And if you remember, that was because of Asia and concerns around the Asia market. It literally slowed down for about 90 days or 120 days. So we were very worried it was going to continue to be a very slow decline or a pause. It quickly came back.

好吧，當你回過頭來談論周期時，對，我的意思是，我們上一次出現這種情況，我稱之為下降是在 2016 年。如果你還記得的話，那是因為亞洲和對全球經濟的擔憂亞洲市場。它實際上放慢了大約 90 天或 120 天。所以我們非常擔心它會繼續非常緩慢地下降或暫停。它很快就回來了。

You can look at the beginning of the pandemic. We thought with everyone going to Zoom that people wouldn't be making investments because it's a different way to do it. That was about a 90-day cycle.

你可以看看大流行的開始。我們認為每個人都去 Zoom，人們不會進行投資，因為這是一種不同的方式。那大約是一個 90 天的周期。

You really have to go back and look at 2010 to say when there was really a pause or a slowdown. And when I talk to limited partners, when I talk to investors, the one mistake I think most of them would say is they didn't put money to work more quickly. They waited too long to jump back in. As you combine those things with just the innovation market growing very fast domestically and globally, could there be a prolonged slowdown? It's possible. I just think the likelihood is a lot less than it has been in prior significant cycles.

你真的必須回頭看看 2010 年，才能知道什麼時候真正出現了停頓或放緩。當我與有限合夥人交談時，當我與投資者交談時，我認為他們中的大多數人會說的一個錯誤是他們沒有更快地投入資金。他們等了太久才重新進入。當你將這些事情與國內和全球快速增長的創新市場結合起來時，是否會出現長期放緩？這是可能的。我只是認為這種可能性比之前的重要周期要小得多。

And it's because of the dry powder on the sidelines, that's why you think it will be narrower?

而且就是因為場邊的干粉，所以才會覺得會窄一些？

Well, it's 2 things. It's the dry powder, number one. Number two, it's the innovation economy still growing on a global basis, right? And number three, if you do see valuations even do a minor correction, I think people are going to look at it and say that's an opportunity to get back in, that this is going to be temporary. So those are the 3 reasons I would point to, to say that it could be short lived if there is a short-term kind of slowdown.

好吧，這是兩件事。這是乾粉，第一。第二，創新經濟仍在全球範圍內增長，對嗎？第三，如果你確實看到估值甚至進行了小幅調整，我認為人們會看到它並說這是一個重新進入的機會，這將是暫時的。所以這就是我要指出的 3 個原因，即如果出現短期的放緩，它可能是短暫的。

Okay. And then final question for Dan. Assuming we do see rate hikes, I know the guidance is ex rate hikes, you talk about reinvesting a portion of it. How should we think about how much of that potential benefit you guys will reinvest back into the company?

好的。然後是 Dan 的最後一個問題。假設我們確實看到加息，我知道指導是加息，你談論的是將其中的一部分進行再投資。我們應該如何考慮你們將有多少潛在收益重新投資回公司？

Yes. I think, Steve, to the extent that we see rate increases, it's clear we're going to reinvest a portion of those increases across the stated objectives. The question is really about the timing of those rate increases, when that occurs.

是的。我認為，史蒂夫，就我們看到利率上升的程度而言，很明顯我們將把這些增長的一部分再投資於既定目標。問題實際上是關於這些加息的時間，何時發生。

But imagine, we see rate increases in March-June time frame. That could potentially move us into the next expense guidance range of the mid-20s. So that's kind of the way to think about it. If we see a March-June increase that we could move into that next range as we reinvest a portion of that spend and at that point, we would talk about the impacts into 2023, how much of that is onetime, how much of that is recurring.

但想像一下，我們看到 3 月至 6 月的時間框架內利率上升。這可能會使我們進入 20 年代中期的下一個費用指導範圍。所以這就是思考它的方式。如果我們看到 3 月至 6 月的增長，我們可以進入下一個範圍，因為我們將部分支出進行再投資，到那時，我們將討論到 2023 年的影響，其中有多少是一次性的，有多少是一次性的再次發生的。

Your next question comes from the line of Casey Haire from Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

So on the loan growth guidance, just curious about the mix. Obviously, fund banking capital call drove about 60% of it in '21. Are you expecting the same kind of strength where it's driving the majority of the loan growth? Or do you see the mix changing? And if so, how?

所以關於貸款增長指導，只是對組合感到好奇。顯然，基金銀行的資本需求在 21 年推動了其中的 60%。您是否期望在推動大部分貸款增長方面有同樣的實力？或者你看到混合變化了嗎？如果是這樣，怎麼辦？

Casey, it's Dan. I'll start. Mike might want to add. But as we look at 2022, I think the mix will still be predominantly capital call lending from a growth perspective. But as we continue to develop and we continue to be excited about the integration with Boston Private, private bank wealth management and see the opportunity for mortgage lending, which is already strong to continue to see that growth. So still predominantly capital call lending but starting to see mortgage as well as other elements of private bank lending pick up in the new year.

凱西，是丹。我會開始。邁克可能想補充。但展望 2022 年，我認為從增長的角度來看，組合仍將主要是資本通知貸款。但隨著我們繼續發展，我們繼續對與波士頓私人銀行、私人銀行財富管理的整合感到興奮，並看到抵押貸款的機會，抵押貸款已經很強勁，可以繼續看到這種增長。因此，仍然主要是資本通知貸款，但開始看到抵押貸款以及私人銀行貸款的其他元素在新的一年有所回升。

Now at the same time, don't count out what's happening in technology, healthcare, life science lending. And even with all of the liquidity that's been in the markets, we've seen good growth there. So still predominantly capital call, but private bank as well as what we do in core technology, healthcare and life sciences will also contribute.

與此同時，不要指望技術、醫療保健、生命科學貸款領域正在發生的事情。即使市場上存在所有流動性，我們也看到了良好的增長。所以仍然主要是資本需求，但私人銀行以及我們在核心技術、醫療保健和生命科學方面所做的工作也會做出貢獻。

Very good. And then just, Dan, you mentioned that the new securities yields, 1.65%, 1.75%. I know you guys kind of -- you kind of update that at year-end, the 10-year, obviously, 30 bps higher than where we were at the beginning of the year. Is that 1.65%, 1.75% accurate relative to where we are today rate-wise?

非常好。然後，Dan，你提到新證券的收益率分別為 1.65%、1.75%。我知道你們有點——你們在年底更新了，10 年，顯然比年初高出 30 個基點。相對於我們今天的利率水平，這是 1.65%、1.75% 的準確率嗎？

Yes. I think based on where the 10-year is sitting and the sell-off we've seen over at least the last couple of weeks, you could, and it's hard to count on this for a longer period of time, look to add another 10, 15 basis points to that yield if we stay effectively at the same rates today throughout the rest of the quarter. But a lot of that depends on market opportunities. A lot of that depends on liquidity flow. So we're comfortable with the 1.65% to 1.75%. And to the extent that longer-term rates and the sell-off, that year-to-date sticks, there could be some small opportunity there.

是的。我認為，根據 10 年期國債的位置和我們至少在過去幾週看到的拋售，你可以，而且很難指望在更長的時間內，再增加一個10、15 個基點，如果我們在本季度剩餘時間內有效保持今天相同的利率。但這在很大程度上取決於市場機會。這在很大程度上取決於流動性。所以我們對 1.65% 到 1.75% 感到滿意。就長期利率和拋售而言，今年迄今仍然存在，那裡可能存在一些小機會。

Okay. And just last one for me on the credit front. The charge-off guidance, down a little bit. Is that -- the slide deck makes it seem like it's more environment driven. But is that finally just a reflection that the low-risk capital call is just a much -- is over half the book? And then also the ACL ratio kind of plateauing here at 65 bps, is that also a good level going forward?

好的。在信貸方面對我來說只是最後一個。充電關閉指導，向下一點點。是嗎——幻燈片讓它看起來更受環境驅動。但這最終是否只是反映出低風險資本需求只是多了——超過了賬面的一半？然後 ACL 比率也穩定在 65 個基點，這也是一個很好的水平嗎？

Yes. So starting -- it's Marc Cadieux, and starting on the charge-off question. Yes, I think it is reflective of the continued evolution of the portfolio towards the lower risk forms of lending like capital call lending, mortgage lending and by extension, while early-stage lending, where we've historically taken, the majority of our losses continues to grow in dollar terms but continues to shrink as a percentage of total loans. And so those things are certainly conspiring to bring the guidance down.

是的。所以開始 - 是 Marc Cadieux，並從收費問題開始。是的，我認為這反映了投資組合向較低風險貸款形式的持續演變，例如資本通知貸款、抵押貸款和推而廣之，而我們歷來採取的早期貸款，我們的大部分損失以美元計算繼續增長，但佔貸款總額的百分比繼續下降。因此，這些事情肯定會合謀降低指南。

And then to your question about reserve, I think adjusted for the change in composition of the portfolio from the beginning of COVID to now. I think what you see basically is that adjusted for that change in composition, we have finally, I think, found if not the bottom, probably pretty close to it. It's hard to imagine where more reserve release would come from.

然後是關於儲備金的問題，我認為根據 COVID 開始到現在的投資組合構成變化進行了調整。我想你看到的基本上是針對成分變化進行調整，我認為我們終於找到了底部，即使不是底部，也可能非常接近底部。很難想像更多的儲備釋放會來自哪裡。

We'll certainly have some growth in capital call lending, as we've mentioned before and certainly figures prominently in the outlook. And if that continues, you could see some continued modest downward pressure on the reserve. But I think at this point, most of what was built during COVID is now out of it, and we're back to normal, as I think the also more normal provision in the fourth quarter reflective of the growth would suggest.

正如我們之前提到的那樣，我們肯定會在資本催繳貸款方面有所增長，並且肯定會在前景中佔據顯著位置。如果這種情況持續下去，您可能會看到儲備金繼續面臨適度的下行壓力。但我認為在這一點上，大部分在 COVID 期間建造的東西現在都已經不復存在了，我們已經恢復正常，正如我認為反映增長的第四季度也更正常的供應所表明的那樣。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the -- back to the loan growth just to kind of dig in a little bit more. In terms of -- if we do get the -- I mean, there's some expectations for practically 8 hikes by the end of '23. If we do get that and we get that pace starting relatively soon in 2022, does that -- can you talk about how, in isolation, that may impact your loan growth expectations at all? Just curious if in that dynamic, if you've seen much of an impact or does the -- again, does the dry powder factor that you've talked about really [trump] that.

關於 - 回到貸款增長只是為了多挖一點。就——如果我們確實得到——我的意思是，到 23 年底有一些實際加息 8 次的預期。如果我們確實做到了這一點，並且我們在 2022 年相對較快地開始了這一步伐，那麼——你能談談孤立地如何影響你的貸款增長預期嗎？只是好奇，如果在這種動態中，如果你看到了很大的影響，或者做了 - 再一次，你談到的干火藥因素真的[勝過]那個。

So I'll start.

所以我會開始。

John, this is Mike. Go ahead, Greg.

約翰，這是邁克。來吧，格雷格。

Go ahead, Mike.

來吧，邁克。

John, this is Mike Descheneaux here. In general, I mean, the first, as you know, and you've been following us for a number of years, the first few basis point hike really is not going to have much impact on the loan books as well. So clearly, you're looking at some leverage loans and that particularly are some buyouts that they might consider, but still nonetheless, debt is still so much cheaper than equity. So you're still going to have people that are going to use this here. So we're not really anticipating that we'll have that strong of an impact here, but it's obviously something to keep an eye on.

約翰，我是 Mike Descheneaux。總的來說，我的意思是，首先，正如你所知，你已經關注我們很多年了，前幾個基點的加息真的不會對貸款賬簿產生太大影響。很明顯，你正在考慮一些槓桿貸款，尤其是他們可能考慮的一些收購，但儘管如此，債務仍然比股權便宜得多。所以你仍然會有人在這裡使用它。所以我們並沒有真正預料到我們會在這裡產生如此強烈的影響，但這顯然是值得關注的事情。

Got it, Mike. That's helpful. And then in terms of the warrant and investment gains, I know reasonably you expect them to moderate off of the very strong 2021 levels. I know this is probably a tough way -- a tough question. But any way to help us gauge the magnitude of moderation that we can expect? Any way to kind of frame it as you're looking at the market now and the backdrop? Just trying to see if there's a -- how we should think about it.

明白了，邁克。這很有幫助。然後就認股權證和投資收益而言，我有理由知道您預計它們會從 2021 年非常強勁的水平回落。我知道這可能是一個艱難的方式——一個棘手的問題。但是有什麼方法可以幫助我們衡量我們可以預期的適度程度呢？當您正在觀察市場和背景時，有什麼方法可以構建它嗎？只是想看看是否有——我們應該如何考慮它。

Yes. John, this is Dan. It's really hard, and that's obviously why we don't guide to it, to put a range around what that could look like coming out of the year with close to $1.1 billion worth of warrant and investment gains. But I think it's clear that that's exceptional and likely not to repeat. But at the same time, as we've been talking about, we're still bullish on the environment. So hard to put a percentage around it. We just know that with this market volatility it could be slower at least for the next quarter or so, especially relative to what we saw in 2021. Still again expecting 2022 to be a good year.

是的。約翰，這是丹。這真的很難，這顯然是我們不指導它的原因，即圍繞今年可能出現的價值接近 11 億美元的認股權證和投資收益設定一個範圍。但我認為很明顯，這是例外，而且很可能不會重複。但與此同時，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們仍然看好環境。很難在它周圍放一個百分比。我們只知道，由於這種市場波動，至少在下個季度左右，它可能會放緩，尤其是相對於我們在 2021 年看到的情況。仍然再次預計 2022 年將是一個好年頭。

Maybe, John, I'll just add on top of what Dan is saying. I mean it is, no doubt, a very difficult thing to predict. But just some of those factors to consider. I mean we keep talking about dry powder. There's a lot of dollars out there, but there's a lot of companies that have been formed over the last couple of years that are primed and really great candidates to go public as well.

也許，John，我會在 Dan 所說的基礎上再補充一點。我的意思是，毫無疑問，這是一件很難預測的事情。但只需要考慮其中的一些因素。我的意思是我們一直在談論乾粉。那裡有很多美元，但在過去幾年中已經成立了很多公司，它們也準備好上市，而且非常適合上市。

I mean we had something like close to 300 public listings in 2021, but there's -- if you look at some of the fact sheets, the number of companies that are valued greater than the median value of what went public last year is significantly greater than what went public. So there is a lot of good companies that can be candidates for exit there. So the fundamentals are still really, really strong and a lot of good companies out there.

我的意思是，我們在 2021 年有近 300 家上市公司，但如果你看一些情況說明書，估值高於去年上市公司中值的公司數量明顯多於什麼公開了。所以有很多好的公司可以成為退出的候選者。因此，基本面仍然非常非常強勁，並且有很多優秀的公司。

Got it. All right. And then I know, Greg, you referenced it earlier on, but just curious around the investment banking trends. Can you maybe give us a little bit of color on the outlook there and pipeline and everything? And then also in terms of impacts that you expect from what we're seeing right now if we are looking at a certainly a rising rate environment in this backdrop we're in, how does that impact that outlook?

知道了。好的。然後我知道，格雷格，你之前提到過它，但只是對投資銀行業的趨勢感到好奇。你能不能給我們一些關於那裡的前景和管道和一切的顏色？然後，如果我們在我們所處的這種背景下看到一個肯定會上升的利率環境，那麼您對我們現在所看到的影響的預期，這將如何影響前景？

Yes. So we've got a couple of slides in the deck that talked about both the revenue side of what we've seen on a quarter-to-quarter basis. But really, it's -- when I think of '22, we have a pretty nice growth built in there relative to what the record quarter -- record year was in '21. And the question really is, okay, how volatile is that. How do we think about that? And to answer that question, I would break down the business into a few categories.

是的。所以我們在甲板上有幾張幻燈片，討論了我們在季度到季度的基礎上看到的收入方面。但實際上，當我想到 22 年時，相對於 21 年創紀錄的季度——創紀錄的一年，我們在那裡建立了相當不錯的增長。問題真的是，好吧，那有多不穩定。我們如何看待這一點？為了回答這個問題，我會將業務分為幾類。

First is the historical SVB Leerink business. So it was mainly biopharma. It was ECM. It was trading, research, and they just continue to do an exceptional job in that area, exceptional moving up the league tables, had a great year last year. But what we're building out capability wise is healthcare services, technology and M&A and ECM and then M&A for biotech and now with research with technology as well. So while you're hearing from some other larger investment banks softness as they go into '22, for us, especially in technology and healthcare services and then, of course, M&A, we're going from either a 0 base or a very little base.

首先是歷史悠久的 SVB Leerink 業務。所以它主要是生物製藥。這是ECM。這是交易、研究，他們只是繼續在該領域做出色的工作，出色地提升了排名，去年表現出色。但我們正在明智地建設能力的是醫療保健服務、技術和併購以及 ECM，然後是生物技術的併購，現在還有技術研究。因此，當你聽到其他一些大型投資銀行在進入 22 年時表現疲軟時，對我們來說，尤其是在技術和醫療保健服務領域，當然還有併購，我們要么從 0 基數，要么從非常小的基數開始根據。

And so when you think about the team that we've assembled, we certainly believe that the upside from where we are is still significant even if it's a softer market in '22. I also believe if the equity capital markets are slow, again, what we push towards is having a balance of both ECM and M&A and in fact, in technology and in healthcare services with -- the main teams were more M&A led. So we feel good about the outlook, and we feel good not just about the outlook for '22 but the trajectory in '23 and '24 based on the people that we brought on to the platform who really are exceptional.

因此，當您考慮我們組建的團隊時，我們當然相信，即使 22 年市場疲軟，我們的優勢仍然很大。我還相信，如果股權資本市場再次放緩，我們推動的是在 ECM 和併購之間取得平衡，事實上，在技術和醫療保健服務方面，主要團隊更多地以併購為主導。因此，我們對前景感覺良好，我們不僅對 22 年的前景感到滿意，而且還對 23 年和 24 年的軌跡感到滿意，這取決於我們為平台帶來的真正傑出的人員。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Greg, I wanted to ask a question on wealth management. It would seem that the wealth management teams would find the opportunity to join SIVB as quite compelling given your client base. Can you speak to the pace at which you would expect to onboard new teams as you grow that business? And is there maybe a certain number per year that you're targeting? Or are there any sort of parameters you can share on the characteristics of the teams you'd be looking to onboard, including maybe like a minimum level of assets under management? Any color?

格雷格，我想問一個關於財富管理的問題。鑑於您的客戶群，財富管理團隊似乎會發現加入 SIVB 的機會非常有吸引力。你能說說隨著業務的發展，你期望加入新團隊的速度嗎？每年是否有一定數量的目標？或者是否有任何類型的參數可以分享您希望加入的團隊的特徵，包括管理資產的最低水平？任何顏色？

Yes. So when we add wealth advisers, it's a little bit different. And so again, I'll break this down into a couple of different parts. One is the interest level. The interest level is very high. Lots of inbound and when we do approach targeted individuals that are in the innovation economy, we're getting a very, very positive reception. And so we added 14 wealth adviser hires in '21. And really think about it, that was mainly the last 3 or 4 months of the year. And then we expect as we roll into this coming year that we're going to have anywhere from 14 to 20, maybe 25 add in '22.

是的。因此，當我們添加財富顧問時，情況會有所不同。同樣，我將把它分解成幾個不同的部分。一是興趣層面。興趣水平非常高。大量入境，當我們接觸創新經濟中的目標個人時，我們得到了非常非常積極的接待。因此，我們在 21 年增加了 14 名財富顧問。仔細想想，那主要是一年中的最後 3 或 4 個月。然後我們預計，隨著我們進入來年，我們將在 22 年增加 14 到 20 個，也許 25 個。

I've been on some of those calls to -- recruiting calls and discussions, and it's very positive and talked to some of our team members who have joined, who've been on the platform for 30 days, 60 days kind of getting their feedback and again, very positive for a couple of different reasons. One is the opportunity, which, as we always said, is incredible here given our connections to the innovation space where wealth is created at an incredibly rapid pace. That's number one; and number two, the collaborative environment that exists on the platform. Those 2 things are very compelling.

我參與了其中一些電話——招聘電話和討論，這是非常積極的，並與我們的一些加入的團隊成員進行了交談，他們已經在平台上工作了 30 天，60 天，他們得到了他們的幫助。反饋，由於幾個不同的原因，再次非常積極。一是機遇，正如我們常說的那樣，考慮到我們與以驚人的速度創造財富的創新空間的聯繫，這在這裡是令人難以置信的。那是第一；第二，平台上存在的協作環境。這兩件事非常引人注目。

And so it's still early, so we certainly can't claim victory. But so far, I feel really good about our ability to recruit, but it's not just about recruiting. It's about what -- who is the team that you have already here. And I feel really, really good about that as well. So I think the outlook is positive. We want to -- we kind of have, I'll call it, a tempered outlook because we want to see the evidence of it happening. And so more to come over the coming quarters, but the foundation is very strong.

所以現在還早，所以我們當然不能宣布勝利。但到目前為止，我對我們的招聘能力感覺非常好，但這不僅僅是招聘。它是關於什麼——你已經在這裡的團隊是誰。我對此也感覺非常非常好。所以我認為前景是積極的。我們想要 - 我們有點，我稱之為溫和的前景，因為我們希望看到它發生的證據。未來幾個季度還會有更多，但基礎非常牢固。

That's very helpful. Following up on your earlier comments. Where would you say the technology investment banking business is in its ramp from last September's launch? I'm guessing it hasn't hit full stride yet, but it would be helpful if you could frame for us -- I guess, just give us a sense of what you've assumed in your outlook.

這很有幫助。跟進您之前的評論。自去年 9 月推出以來，您認為技術投資銀行業務處於哪個階段？我猜它還沒有完全實現，但如果你能為我們構建框架將會很有幫助——我想，讓我們了解一下你在你的前景中假設了什麼。

Yes. Actually, it's -- we expected that it would take, really, 6, 9 months for really to hit -- I wouldn't even say full stride, but I would say really starting to get a little bit of a flywheel. And I don't think you're really going to see what I'll call the full potential until later this year and into '23. And it just takes -- it takes time to get everything in order, to get everyone communicated with.

是的。實際上，我們預計真正需要 6、9 個月才能真正實現目標——我什至不會說全速前進，但我會說真的開始有點飛輪了。而且我不認為你真的會看到我所說的全部潛力，直到今年晚些時候進入 23 年。這只是需要——需要時間來讓一切井井有條，讓每個人都與之溝通。

That being said, what has impressed me right out of the chute is that we've had more than 10 very significant mandates signed up and a very, very strong pipeline in the technology side and healthcare services. And again, in the biotech side, it's already an incredibly robust team and outlook.

話雖這麼說，但讓我印象深刻的是，我們已經簽署了 10 多項非常重要的授權，並且在技術方面和醫療保健服務方面擁有非常非常強大的渠道。再一次，在生物技術方面，它已經是一支非常強大的團隊和前景。

So I think we're in a really good trajectory. And again, most of those are M&A, but we certainly have already signed on a couple public offerings as well. So again, feeling really good about the foundation that's being built.

所以我認為我們正處於一個非常好的軌道上。再一次，其中大部分是併購，但我們當然也已經簽署了一些公開募股協議。因此，再次對正在建立的基礎感覺非常好。

Okay. Great. That's great to hear. Last one for me for Dan. Your reserve build was growth driven. Maybe looking ahead, should we expect the reserve rate to hold such that the growth in your reserves will generally be commensurate with your loan growth? Is that a reasonable way to think about it?

好的。偉大的。聽到這個消息我很高興。最後一個是我給 Dan 的。您的儲備建設是由增長驅動的。也許展望未來，我們是否應該期望準備金率保持不變，以使準備金的增長通常與貸款增長相稱？這是一個合理的思考方式嗎？

Yes. Bill, I think that Marc might want to add something to it. But I think when we look at where the reserves are, we're effectively probably at the bottom from a reserve rate perspective. So I think to the extent that we continue to add on additional lending, that is going to drive the additional formulaic provision that we saw this quarter. So obviously, those loans are generating good solid net interest income and client relationships. We're certainly going to see more provision associated with loan growth.

是的。 Bill，我認為 Marc 可能想添加一些內容。但我認為，當我們查看儲備在哪裡時，從儲備率的角度來看，我們實際上可能處於底部。因此，我認為就我們繼續增加額外貸款而言，這將推動我們在本季度看到的額外公式化準備金。很明顯，這些貸款正在產生良好的穩固淨利息收入和客戶關係。我們肯定會看到更多與貸款增長相關的準備金。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Wells Fargo Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Jared Shaw 與 Wells Fargo Securities 的對話。

Maybe just circling back on the expense conversation and the expectation for additional investment if rates or once rates do go higher. Should we -- how should we be thinking about that? Is that really more -- when we look at Slide 14, will just be an acceleration, a pull forward of investments that may otherwise have -- takes a little bit longer? Or would there be new initiatives? Are there new opportunities that you would use that opportunity from revenue to expand?

也許只是回到費用對話以及如果利率或一旦利率確實走高對額外投資的預期。我們應該 - 我們應該如何考慮？這真的更多——當我們看幻燈片 14 時，只是加速，投資的推進，否則可能需要更長的時間？或者會有新的舉措？您是否有新的機會可以利用收入的機會來擴大規模？

Jared -- go ahead.

賈里德——繼續。

Yes, Jared. Go ahead, Greg.

是的，賈里德。來吧，格雷格。

I was just -- Jared, to start, so I wouldn't call it necessarily a pull forward. Here's what I would say, is we have an incredible amount of opportunities to invest in a very long list. And part of this is we're constrained by just how many things you can do at once. And there are some -- we want to make sure that we're investing at the right pace. If we do see revenue start to pick up with some rate increases, we're going to look at opportunistic opportunities to accelerate some of those investments.

我只是 - 賈里德，開始，所以我不認為這一定是向前推進。這就是我要說的，我們有大量的機會來投資一個很長的清單。部分原因是我們受到您一次可以做多少事情的限制。還有一些 - 我們希望確保我們以正確的速度進行投資。如果我們確實看到收入隨著利率的提高而開始回升，我們將尋找機會來加速其中的一些投資。

So is it a pull forward? I wouldn't describe it that way because a pull forward means that you have a certain dollar amount, you're moving it up, and then it'll drop down to a lower level. It's more we're going to take advantage of those investment opportunities. So I think -- I just would think about it as saying it's opportunistic, and we have a lot of opportunities ahead of us. So if we do get that rate increase, we'll put some of it to work for sure.

那麼這是一個前拉嗎？我不會那樣描述它，因為向前拉意味著你有一定的美元數額，你正在向上移動它，然後它會下降到一個較低的水平。我們將更多地利用這些投資機會。所以我認為 - 我只是認為它是機會主義的，我們面前有很多機會。因此，如果我們確實提高了利率，我們肯定會投入其中的一部分。

Okay. All right. And then looking at the AUM guide and in light of the prior question around the success you've had bringing people, relationship managers, onto the platform and the expectation for that to continue. The AUM guide seems a little conservative, I guess, given the growth we were used to expecting from Silicon Valley. What could cause AUM to grow faster with the broader expectation of the support you're putting behind the private bank?

好的。好的。然後查看 AUM 指南，並根據先前的問題圍繞您將人員、關係經理帶到平台上的成功以及對該平台的期望繼續下去。 AUM 指南似乎有點保守，我猜，考慮到我們習慣於期待矽谷的增長。什麼會導致資產管理規模隨著對您對私人銀行的支持的更廣泛期望而增長得更快？

Yes. I think we have to get, what I'll call, the flywheel up and running, and we're just getting it started. And so think about -- that's one thing. And let's just talk about the differences between wealth management and what I'll call commercial banking. In commercial banking, you have a commercial client. They have a lending need. And it's usually within a reasonable period of time. You put that together. You put the loan in place, and they borrow money. It's a relatively, I'll call it, short time period to bring on those type of new clients.

是的。我認為我們必須讓飛輪啟動並運行，我稱之為飛輪，而我們才剛剛開始。所以想想——這是一回事。讓我們談談財富管理和我稱之為商業銀行業務之間的區別。在商業銀行業務中，您有一個商業客戶。他們有借貸需求。而且通常是在合理的時間內。你把它放在一起。你把貸款到位，他們藉錢。這是一個相對較短的時間，我稱之為吸引這些類型的新客戶。

When you're looking at the private bank and wealth, you typically -- it takes a while to build that relationship, to reconnect with them, to convince them that you have the full product set for them that's capable and that's even for wealth advisers that are coming over because, again, we're looking specifically at the innovation economy. So it's going to take a little bit of time. And once we see that, then I think you're going to see an outlook that's going to be increasing at a much accelerated pace. But I think we're just saying until we see that flywheel effect, we're not going to set overly ambitious goals in wealth AUM at this point.

當你關注私人銀行和財富時，你通常需要一段時間來建立這種關係，與他們重新建立聯繫，讓他們相信你擁有適合他們的完整產品集，甚至對財富顧問也是如此之所以出現，是因為我們再次特別關注創新經濟。所以這需要一點時間。一旦我們看到這一點，那麼我認為你會看到一個將以更快的速度增長的前景。但我認為我們只是說，在我們看到飛輪效應之前，我們不會在這一點上為財富 AUM 設定過於雄心勃勃的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

I'm interested in kind of your thoughts on the geography of deposit growth in 2022 under a varying rate outlook on or off balance sheet, the mix where you see it going.

我很想知道您對 2022 年在資產負債表內外不同利率前景下存款增長地理的看法，以及您所看到的混合情況。

Chris, it's Dan. I think as we look at the first couple of rate increases, imagine 25, 50 basis points, I think we're going to start to see behavior pretty similar to what we saw during the last rate rise cycle, where you're not really seeing a massive shift towards off-balance sheet and not even seeing much of that money start to be motivated to move into the interest-bearing sectors.

克里斯，是丹。我認為，當我們觀察前幾次加息時，想像一下 25、50 個基點，我認為我們將開始看到與我們在上一個加息週期中看到的非常相似的行為，你不是真的看到資產負債表外的大規模轉移，甚至沒有看到很多資金開始有動力進入生息部門。

I think as we start to get into 75, 100, 125 basis point Fed funds, that's when the money market rates off the balance sheet really could start to be more attractive. And I think that's when you could start to see more movement. And that's where I think we've just got a competitive advantage if you look at the total $400 billion worth of client funds. You have clients that may want to look for some higher rates, which we could offer on the balance sheet in money market as we did during the last cycle and still, by doing that, end up with a very low cost of deposits and deposit base.

我認為當我們開始進入 75、100、125 個基點的聯邦基金時，資產負債表外的貨幣市場利率真正開始變得更具吸引力。我認為那是你可以開始看到更多運動的時候。如果你看看價值 4000 億美元的客戶資金總額，我認為這就是我們剛剛獲得競爭優勢的地方。您的客戶可能希望尋求更高的利率，我們可以像上一個週期那樣在貨幣市場的資產負債表上提供這些利率，但這樣做最終會帶來非常低的存款成本和存款基礎.

So I think first 25, 50 basis points, no big shift in client behavior. 75 and 100 on is when you start to see a little bit more migration. And again, I think that's where the liquidity that we have really plays in our favor to be able to manage between that on-off balance sheet, put to use some of these products that we've been developing here over the last couple of years.

所以我認為首先是 25、50 個基點，客戶行為沒有大的轉變。 75 和 100 是您開始看到更多遷移的時候。再一次，我認為這就是我們擁有的流動性真正對我們有利的地方，能夠在資產負債表內外進行管理，使用我們過去幾年在這裡開發的一些產品.

That's great. Maybe a follow-up. I heard from one of your peers yesterday that they obviously are going to try to take down some of the rate sensitivity as rates go up. I know you have some hedges on the balance sheet, but just interested in kind of the appetite to moderate it a bit if we get the forward curve.

那太棒了。也許是後續行動。我昨天從你們的一位同行那裡聽說，隨著利率上升，他們顯然會試圖降低一些利率敏感性。我知道你在資產負債表上有一些對沖，但只是想知道如果我們得到遠期曲線，你是否有興趣稍微緩和一下。

Yes. Chris, this is one where almost by the balance sheet growth that we've been experiencing, we've been moderating asset sensitivity naturally. So just look at what we've been doing in moving cash liquidity into the investment securities portfolio as we're seeing at least some movement in the rate environment out in term. That helps dampen some of that sensitivity, in effect, lock in some of that rate environment that we see.

是的。克里斯，這幾乎是我們一直在經歷的資產負債表增長，我們一直在自然地降低資產敏感性。因此，只要看看我們在將現金流動性轉移到投資證券組合方面所做的工作，因為我們至少看到利率環境在短期內出現了一些變化。這有助於抑制一些敏感性，實際上，鎖定我們看到的某些利率環境。

So you're generally seeing more -- just organically, by the way, we're putting that money to work in the investment securities portfolio, some dampening of the asset sensitivity. And we're taking advantage of those rates in the environment that exists today. So we will always be asset sensitive just by the nature of the balance sheet but certainly seeing it being tempered in this environment by the actions we're taking with the portfolio.

所以你通常會看到更多 - 順便說一句，只是有機地，我們將這筆錢投入到投資證券投資組合中，從而抑制了資產敏感性。我們正在利用當今環境中的這些利率。因此，我們將始終僅根據資產負債表的性質對資產敏感，但肯定會看到它在這種環境下通過我們對投資組合採取的行動得到緩和。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer & Co.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Chris Kotowski。

Yes. Let me start, I guess, with another shot at the equity and warrant gains, just in the sense that in your portfolio today it's about $2.5 billion and back in 2018, 2019, it was like $600 million to $900 million, so it's roughly 3x. And I'm so, a normalized level should still be bigger than what we saw in 2019, I guess, is the first part of it. And then secondly, am I right in thinking that like you probably wouldn't put an equity position on your balance sheet if you didn't expect a kind of mid-teens through the cycle return-ish?

是的。讓我開始吧，我想，再談談股票和權證的收益，從某種意義上說，在你今天的投資組合中，它大約是 25 億美元，而在 2018 年、2019 年，它大約是 6 億到 9 億美元，所以它大約是 3 倍.我是這樣的，標準化水平應該仍然比我們在 2019 年看到的水平更高，我想，這是它的第一部分。其次，我是否認為如果你不期望在周期中出現某種中期回報，你可能不會在你的資產負債表上放置一個股權頭寸是正確的嗎？

Chris, it's Dan. I think the way to think about it is that these are highly granular positions. So if you think about the fact that we've got warrants and close to -- I think it's close to now 3,000 individual companies, those individual companies obviously react to what's happening from a market condition perspective.

克里斯，是丹。我認為思考它的方式是這些是高度精細的位置。因此，如果您考慮我們已經獲得認股權證並且接近 - 我認為現在接近 3,000 家公司，這些公司顯然會從市場狀況的角度對正在發生的事情做出反應。

Now what's actually happened over the last couple of years is we've gone from a warrant portfolio of 1,500 granular names to closer to that 3,000. So there's actually more variability there today than back in the previous period. So it's really hard to make. And if it were easier, we would certainly have a guidance range about it, the broader assumptions that you're making.

現在，過去幾年實際發生的事情是，我們已經從 1,500 個細化名稱的權証投資組合變成了接近 3,000 個。因此，與上一時期相比，今天實際上存在更多的可變性。所以真的很難做。如果它更容易，我們肯定會有一個指導範圍，你正在做的更廣泛的假設。

Yes. No. But I was wondering specifically, I realize the warrants are particularly different. But presumably, on the equity positions that you take, presumably, you'd be targeting a mid-teens return granted that there is lumpiness but through the cycle.

是的。不，但我特別想知道，我意識到認股權證特別不同。但據推測，在你持有的股票頭寸上，你的目標可能是十幾歲中期的回報，前提是存在波動但會貫穿整個週期。

Yes. In many cases, those equity positions are the results of the conversion of the warrants into equity positions while we're in the lock-up period. So there's no return threshold in particular associated with it. So it's just a conversion of that into the warrant post the IPO.

是的。在很多情況下，這些股權頭寸是我們在鎖定期期間將權證轉換為股權頭寸的結果。因此，沒有特別與之相關的回報門檻。所以這只是將其轉換為 IPO 後的認股權證。

Okay. And then on the $2.5 billion that is on your balance sheet today, is there a mark-to-market risk? Or is that primarily at cost or lower of cost or market?

好的。然後，對於您今天資產負債表上的 25 億美元，是否存在按市值計價的風險？還是主要以成本或成本或市場成本更低？

Yes, the vast majority of that is mark to market. So that's already mark-to-market. I mean we've got the details included in the last 10-K of the mark-to-market methodology associated with it. So that's marked on a quarterly basis and is up to date as of 12/31 based on the market activity.

是的，其中絕大多數是按市值計算的。所以這已經是按市值計價了。我的意思是我們已經獲得了與之相關的按市值計價方法的最後 10-K 中的詳細信息。所以這是按季度標記的，並且根據市場活動截至 12 月 31 日是最新的。

Okay. And then secondly, just you gave very detailed guidance on an annual basis and it makes our job very easy. And I was just wondering, do you have a view on the cadence that we should expect through the year either from environmental factors or from internal factors like the fact that you brought on this big team of bankers that we start strong? Or I mean should we just step it up ratably during the quarters? Or does the team start coming on strong early and then kind of flatten out later? And again, if you don't have a view, then that's fine, but I'm just curious if you have a view on the cadence of the year that we should expect.

好的。其次，您每年都會提供非常詳細的指導，這讓我們的工作變得非常輕鬆。我只是想知道，您是否對我們今年應該從環境因素或內部因素（例如您帶來了我們開始強大的龐大銀行家團隊）的節奏有什麼看法？或者我的意思是我們是否應該在季度中逐步提高它？還是球隊早早開始強勢，後來就趨於平緩？再一次，如果你沒有觀點，那很好，但我只是想知道你是否對我們應該期待的今年的節奏有看法。

I think with balance sheet growth that we've seen, it's been fairly progressive as liquidity has been raised. If you look at core fee income lines, generally less subject to seasonal factors on a quarterly basis. I think if we look at areas where there would be more volatility, you'd be looking at investment banking types of revenues, which are just much more subject to what's happening with market conditions from quarter-to-quarter along with the investment and warrant gains that we just talked about.

我認為隨著我們所看到的資產負債表增長，隨著流動性的提高，它已經相當進步了。如果您查看核心費用收入線，通常每個季度受季節性因素的影響較小。我認為，如果我們看看波動性更大的領域，你會看到投資銀行業務類型的收入，這些收入更受每個季度市場狀況以及投資和認股權證的影響我們剛才談到的收穫。

And then there's just, as there always has been, a progressive build from an expense perspective quarter-to-quarter. But generally speaking, that's a good way to think about it. There's really no perfect way to break out the quarters.

然後，一如既往，從支出的角度來看，每季度都會有一個漸進的構建。但總的來說，這是一個很好的思考方式。真的沒有完美的方法來打破宿舍。

Your next question comes from the line of Jennifer Demba with Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jennifer Demba。

Question on Leerink. So with the broader sector focus now, what is the revenue potential for this company over the next few years? How big a business could this be relative to the rest of SVB?

關於 Leerink 的問題。那麼隨著現在更廣泛的行業關注，這家公司在未來幾年的收入潛力是多少？相對於 SVB 的其他部分，這家企業的規模有多大？

Yes. Jennifer, it's Greg. I'll start and Dan may want to add. You can see what our guidance is for this year, which I would describe it as we're hitting on -- we expect to be hitting on at least in technology and healthcare, it's kind of like 4 of an 8 -- 4 cylinders on an 8-cylinder engine. So we're kind of halfway there. When I think of the full potential, I don't think that's really going to be reached until '23 or maybe even a little bit into '24.

是的。詹妮弗，是格雷格。我會開始，Dan 可能想補充一下。你可以看到我們今年的指導方針是什麼，我會在我們正在努力的時候描述它——我們希望至少在技術和醫療保健方面取得成功，這有點像 8 個中的 4 個——4 個圓柱體8缸發動機所以我們有點半途而廢。當我想到全部潛力時，我認為要到 23 年甚至 24 年才能真正實現。

But the answer to your question is difficult in the sense of there's 2 ways to think about it, right? So one way to think about it is your team and their potential. And the second part is the robustness of the market and the revenue opportunity, the fee opportunities that exist. So that's the more unknown.

但是從有兩種思考方式的意義上說，很難回答你的問題，對嗎？所以考慮它的一種方法是你的團隊和他們的潛力。第二部分是市場的穩健性和收入機會，即存在的收費機會。所以這是更多的未知數。

Do I see this business or could I see this business as a $1 billion revenue business in the next 3 years? The answer is yes. And that's a combination of the quality of people we have, the breadth of the products that they're providing to the market and I think the market staying relatively healthy.

在未來 3 年內，我是否會看到這項業務或我能否將其視為收入 10 億美元的業務？答案是肯定的。這是我們擁有的人員素質、他們向市場提供的產品的廣度以及我認為市場保持相對健康的結合。

So that's the top line. And then when you get down to the bottom line, you see pretax margins that you could be in the 20% to 25% range, which -- and maybe even a little bit higher than that as we gravitate towards more M&A. So yes, feel really good about the potential for this business to grow.

這就是最重要的。然後當你談到底線時，你會看到稅前利潤率可能在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內，隨著我們傾向於更多的併購，這甚至可能比這高一點。所以是的，對這項業務的增長潛力感到非常滿意。

There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to the Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Greg Becker.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在想把電話轉回給首席執行官 Greg Becker 先生。

Great. Thanks, everybody. I just want to really thank you all for joining us today. We're certainly proud of what we delivered this past year and very excited about the year ahead and the work we're doing to deepen with our clients, the relationship to add value and insights and continue to make meaningful differences in their success. It's one of the things we track, how our clients feel about our ability to have an impact on their success. And we had great uptick in that last year, and we certainly expect it to play out that way this year as well.

偉大的。謝謝大家。我只想非常感謝大家今天加入我們。我們當然為我們在過去一年所取得的成就感到自豪，並對來年以及我們為加深與客戶的關係所做的工作感到非常興奮，增加價值和見解的關係，並繼續為他們的成功做出有意義的改變。這是我們跟踪的事情之一，我們的客戶如何看待我們對他們的成功產生影響的能力。去年我們有很大的增長，我們當然希望今年也能這樣發展。

Obviously, based on the questions, we're keeping an eye on the markets and we wouldn't be surprised given the current kind of volatility to see some volatility in private company valuations. But again, as we said, the market is still so robust. There's so much potential. There's so much dry powder that we remain still very optimistic.

顯然，基於這些問題，我們正在密切關注市場，鑑於當前的波動性，我們不會對私人公司估值出現一些波動感到驚訝。但正如我們所說，市場仍然如此強勁。有很大的潛力。乾粉太多了，我們仍然非常樂觀。

The bottom line is that we've been here before. We've seen our clients go through many cycles, large and small. We know from experience that those cycles are short, but in no way do they diminish the power of this innovation economy that is just getting more and more attention.

底線是我們以前來過這裡。我們已經看到我們的客戶經歷了許多大大小小的周期。我們從經驗中知道這些週期很短，但它們絕不會削弱這種正受到越來越多關注的創新經濟的力量。

So I just want to thank our employees around the world for always giving their best to SVB, to hanging in there during the pandemic and taking care of each other and their colleagues and especially the clients. I want to thank our clients for their partnership and trust in us. And finally, as we hopefully are in the final stages of the pandemic, I certainly look forward to more in-person meetings, in-person dinners and getting to spend time with members of our team and clients in the market.

因此，我只想感謝我們在世界各地的員工一直為 SVB 盡最大努力，在大流行期間堅守崗位，互相照顧，照顧他們的同事，尤其是客戶。我要感謝我們的客戶對我們的合作和信任。最後，由於我們希望處於大流行的最後階段，我當然期待更多的面對面會議、面對面的晚宴，並與我們的團隊成員和市場上的客戶共度時光。

So in the meantime, while we wait for that to play out, hopefully, everyone stays healthy and take care of themselves. Thanks a lot, and take care.

因此，與此同時，在我們等待結果出來的同時，希望每個人都能保持健康並照顧好自己。非常感謝，保重。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。