SVB Financial Group (SIVB) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the SVB Financial Group Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

再會。我叫艾瑪，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 SVB 金融集團 2022 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指令）

Meghan O'Leary, Head of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

投資者關係主管梅根·奧利裡 (Meghan O'Leary)，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Emma, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Our President and CEO, Greg Becker; and our CFO, Dan Beck; are here to talk about our fourth quarter and full year '22 financial results and our 2023 outlook, and we'll be joined by other members of our management team for the Q&A.

謝謝你，艾瑪，也謝謝大家今天的參與。我們的總裁兼執行長 Greg Becker；以及我們的財務長 Dan Beck；在這裡討論我們的 2022 年第四季和全年財務表現以及 2023 年展望，我們的管理團隊的其他成員也將加入我們的問答環節。

Our current earnings release, highlight slides and CEO letter have been filed with the SEC and are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們目前的收益報告、重點投影片和執行長信函已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)，並可在我們網站的投資者關係部分查閱。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this call, and actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in our earnings release dealing with forward-looking information, which applies equally to statements made in this call. In addition, some of our discussion may include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Information about those measures, including reconciliation to GAAP measures, may be found in our SEC filings and in our earnings release.

我們將在本次電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看我們收益報告中有關前瞻性資訊的免責聲明，該免責聲明同樣適用於本次電話會議中的聲明。此外，我們的一些討論可能涉及非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些指標的資訊（包括與 GAAP 指標的調節）可在我們的 SEC 文件和收益報告中找到。

And now I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Greg Becker.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長格雷格·貝克爾。

Great. Thanks, Meghan, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Before we go into questions, I just want to briefly comment on the, kind of, our business and the market environment. First, I think it's important to set kind of context. We continue to see strength and momentum in our business despite the broader market backdrop, which I'll talk about in a minute. We had healthy loan growth across the board, driven by Global Fund Banking, technology, and private banking mortgage lending.

偉大的。謝謝梅根，也謝謝大家今天的參與。在我們開始提問之前，我只想簡單評論一下我們的業務和市場環境。首先，我認為設定背景很重要。儘管市場背景廣泛，但我們的業務仍然保持強勁和發展勢頭，稍後我將談到這一點。在全球基金銀行、科技和私人銀行抵押貸款的推動下，我們的貸款全面健康成長。

We had record core fee income from improved client investment fee margins. We saw a healthy investment banking revenue driven by biopharma deal activity, which was great to see. And we had more balance in client fund flows as client cash burn in the pace of VC investment decline showed signs of moderation, which was obviously very important and welcomed. And we saw a continued strong new client acquisition of approximately 1,600 clients in the quarter, which is higher than pre-COVID levels, which is notable. And credit remains solid, although our provision reflects higher net charge-offs and nonperforming loans as well as our expectations for deteriorating economic conditions.

由於客戶投資費用利潤率的提高，我們的核心費用收入創下了歷史新高。我們看到生物製藥交易活動推動了健康的投資銀行收入，這是令人高興的。而且，由於風險投資下降速度中客戶現金消耗出現放緩跡象，我們的客戶資金流更加平衡，這顯然非常重要且受歡迎。值得注意的是，本季我們持續保持強勁的新客戶成長勢頭，新增客戶約 1,600 家，高於疫情之前的水平。儘管我們的撥備反映了更高的淨沖銷和不良貸款以及我們對惡化的經濟狀況的預期，但信貸仍然保持穩健。

Now the markets are still challenging. We admit that. And they're likely to remain so throughout 2023. We don't expect any dramatic change from where we are right now. And in fact, even a little bit more pressure in the first couple of quarters. So in other words, again, not expecting a dramatic improvement. Global market volatility has significantly reduced private and public investment. In public, there's almost -- it is the longest time the window has been effectively shut. And we don't really expect that to change until maybe, but a big maybe in the latter half of the year. And there's still a lot of uncertainty over the direction of rates and inflation in the broader economy, and we hear about it pretty much every day in the news and on media.

目前市場依然充滿挑戰。我們承認這一點。而且這種狀況很可能持續到 2023 年。事實上，前幾季的壓力甚至更大一些。換句話說，我再說一遍，不要期待會有顯著的改善。全球市場動盪大幅減少私人和公共投資。在公共場合，這幾乎是——窗戶被有效關閉的最長時間。我們確實預計這種情況可能會改變，但很可能要到今年下半年才會改變。整體經濟中利率和通膨的走向仍然存在很大的不確定性，我們幾乎每天都會在新聞和媒體上聽到有關這一消息。

So what does it mean for us for '23? We expect these conditions will continue to put pressure on our growth in the first half of '23 with net interest income pressure, somewhat higher provision, although we still expect credit performance will remain good overall, and other headwinds that are kind of -- come on a daily basis. But in the second half, we expect continued momentum and the balance between venture investment and cash burn. And it doesn't -- this is important, and it doesn't take much of improvement, in fact, no real improvement from where we are on the deployment of dollars. It's more about the cash burn, which we, again, continue to believe is going to be pulled back.

那麼這對我們23年來說又意味著什麼呢？我們預計這些情況將繼續對我們在 23 年上半年的成長造成壓力，包括淨利息收入壓力、撥備略高（儘管我們仍預期信貸表現總體將保持良好），以及其他每天都會出現的不利因素。但在下半年，我們預計這股動能將持續維持，創投和現金消耗之間將保持平衡。但事實並非如此——這很重要，而且不需要太多的改進，事實上，在資金部署方面，我們並沒有取得任何真正的進展。這更多的是關於現金消耗的問題，我們再次堅信現金消耗將會減少。

We expect the shift towards interest-bearing deposits to stabilize and could see an inflection point in net interest income and NIM in the second half of the year. We believe that shift, combined with progressive paydowns in our investment securities portfolio, again, roughly $3 billion a quarter, will provide meaningful revenue tailwinds that build throughout the year.

我們預計，向計息存款的轉變將會穩定下來，並可能在今年下半年看到淨利息收入和淨利差的轉捩點。我們相信，這種轉變，加上我們投資證券組合的逐步償還（每季約 30 億美元），將為全年帶來有意義的收入順風。

And we have enough visibility at this point to provide full year 2023 outlook despite the market uncertainty, and those details are in our Q4 -- our Q4 '22 earnings deck filed earlier today.

儘管市場存在不確定性，但目前我們有足夠的透明度來提供 2023 年全年展望，這些細節已在我們今天稍早提交的 2022 年第四季財報中公佈。

We're prepared if those things don't improve, again, which is important. And even if the market challenges are prolonged or get worse, it's important to note we have a high-quality, very liquid balance sheet, which I know there'll be lots of questions about; strong capital levels; a seasoned management team, which we experienced navigating challenging markets; and adding a lot of new people with deep experience as well; and a consistent focus on our long-term business strategy.

如果這些情況沒有改善，我們已經做好了準備，這一點很重要。即使市場挑戰持續或加劇，值得注意的是，我們擁有高品質、流動性極強的資產負債表，我知道這會引發很多疑問；雄厚的資本水準；一支經驗豐富的管理團隊，曾帶領我們應對充滿挑戰的市場；並吸收了許多經驗豐富的新員工；並持續關注我們的長期業務策略。

So when you put all that together, we feel clearly better about the outlook than we did last quarter where there was more uncertainty, and we certainly believe that the innovation economy is the best place to be. And even if we're in this prolonged period of time for longer or even a little bit deeper or deeper, we know we're going to weather that fine.

因此，當你把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我們對前景的感覺明顯比上個季度更好，因為上個季度存在更多的不確定性，而且我們確實相信創新經濟是最好的狀態。即使我們處於這個延長的時間更長或更深入的階段，我們都知道我們會安然度過。

So with that, I want to turn it back to the operator to open up to questions.

因此，我想將話題轉回給接線員，以便回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）您今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

So I guess -- I mean, I think it was good to see the 2023 guidance. I just wanted to follow up on what you just mentioned around having enough visibility to provide that guidance. It sounds like you're feeling better today. And you look at the Slide 10 in terms of the client fund outflows, obviously cut in half quarter-over-quarter. If you don't mind, just give us a sense of just customer conversations that you are having with clients. What's adding to that -- what's added to that visibility today versus 3 months ago? And I understand all the things that can go wrong, I think. But what are you seeing in terms of green shoots of improvement? Would love to start there.

所以我想——我的意思是，我認為看到 2023 年的指引是件好事。我只是想跟進您剛才提到的關於擁有足夠的可見性來提供指導的問題。聽起來你今天感覺好多了。從投影片 10 可以看出，客戶資金流出量明顯比上一季減少了一半。如果您不介意的話，請讓我們了解您與客戶之間的客戶對話。與三個月前相比，今天的可見度有何提高？我認為我也了解所有可能出錯的事情。但您看到哪些改善的跡象呢？很想從那裡開始。

Yes, I'll start, and I'm sure that Mike will want to add even more color to my comments. Ebrahim, here's how I think about. Where the clarity is coming from is a couple of places. One is, I would say, we were hoping we would have had seen more of this in the third quarter, and that's why I would say we're disappointed, and that's why we didn't give guidance because it kind of didn't fit with what our expectations were and what we were hearing, which was the following.

是的，我會開始，我相信 Mike 會希望為我的評論增添更多精彩內容。易卜拉欣，我的想法是這樣的。清晰度來自幾個地方。一是，我想說，我們希望在第三季度看到更多這樣的情況，這就是為什麼我想說我們感到失望，這也是我們沒有給出指引的原因，因為它與我們的預期和我們所聽到的不符，具體如下。

Companies realize that it's hard to raise money, the level of venture capital deployment is coming down, and we expected a more dramatic decrease in burn rates. That really didn't happen in Q3. We saw clearly much more of that in Q4. And I think you're going to see more of it in Q1. And it's -- you hear about it because when you're having conversations with companies, they're talking about, gosh, we hired a bunch in the last couple of years, and now we're going to pull back on some of that. So we're going to cut back 10%, 15%, 20% or whatever that is, and we're going to look to cut costs in other areas.

公司意識到籌集資金很困難，創投部署水準正在下降，我們預期資金消耗率將大幅下降。這在第三季確實沒有發生。我們在第四季清楚地看到了更多這樣的情況。我認為您將在第一季看到更多這樣的情況。你之所以會聽說這個，是因為當你與公司交談時，他們會說，天哪，我們在過去幾年裡僱用了一大批人，而現在我們要減少一些。因此，我們將削減 10%、15%、20% 或其他金額，我們還將考慮削減其他領域的成本。

And the only reason I don't think it happened as quickly as we thought it was going to, is that companies had a lot more cash than they had in other cycles. And so that was just a prolonged period. So we know that venture capital declined pretty significantly in the third quarter that continued in the fourth quarter. But again, what our expectations are is that you're actually going to see a little bit more of a decline in the first 2 quarters and then start to see a little bit of improvement in the second half of the year.

我認為這種情況沒有像我們想像的那樣迅速發生的唯一原因是，公司擁有的現金比其他週期中多得多。所以這只是一個延長的時期。因此我們知道風險投資在第三季度大幅下降並且這種趨勢在第四季度持續。但我們的預期是，你實際上會看到前兩個季度的下滑幅度稍微大一些，然後在下半年開始看到一點改善。

So our forecast isn't a rosier Q1 and Q2 with higher levels of venture capital deployment, in fact, it's the opposite, a little bit more of a decline. And then you're going to see, again, this continuation of client burn or cash burn pullback. So that's the narrative that all -- when we talk to clients. And again, not all clients are the same. As you know, we have some that are still spending more money. They're raising money still, and that's going to happen. But that narrative is shaping our outlook in the first kind of 2 periods, first half versus the second half. So Mike, turn it over to you to add any color to that.

因此，我們預測第一季和第二季的情況並不是更加樂觀，風險資本部署水準也不會更高，事實上，情況恰恰相反，下滑幅度會更大一些。然後你會再次看到客戶流失或現金流失現象的持續。這就是我們與客戶交談時的全部內容。再說一遍，並非所有客戶都是一樣的。正如你所知，我們中的一些人仍在花更多的錢。他們仍在籌集資金，而且這會發生。但這種敘述正在塑造我們對前兩個時期（上半年與下半年）的看法。所以 Mike，把它交給你來添加任何顏色。

Sure, Greg. Thanks a lot, Greg. Ebrahim, there's a few data points, I think, where investors are going to start to get even more clarity, right? When we think about the inflation reports and whether or not the rising rates are having impact on inflation, we just had a January 12 report, and we have the February 14 inflation report coming up. So we're starting to see that rates are starting to have an impact on inflation.

當然，格雷格。非常感謝，格雷格。易卜拉欣，我認為，有幾個數據點可以讓投資人開始獲得更清晰的認識，對嗎？當我們考慮通膨報告以及利率上升是否對通膨產生影響時，我們剛剛收到了 1 月 12 日的報告，而 2 月 14 日的通膨報告即將發布。因此我們開始看到利率開始對通貨膨脹產生影響。

I think that's especially important for investors looking for clarity what's happening. The COVID impact of the zero COVID policy in China, like we're starting to see that go through China, and we'll know here end of January or February about whether or not that actually has gone through and then supply chains can start to come out again, having impact on inflation. The energy impact in Europe, we're going to get to that and see some more data points about and the impact of inflation.

我認為這對於想要了解正在發生的事情的投資者來說尤其重要。中國零感染政策對新冠疫情的影響，我們已經開始看到該政策在中國實施，我們將在 1 月底或 2 月底知道該政策是否真的實施，然後供應鏈可能會再次恢復，對通膨產生影響。我們將討論歐洲的能源影響，並查看更多有關通貨膨脹影響的數據點。

But perhaps most importantly is the valuations, right? I think you have the auditors that are in at the various companies here that are looking at the valuations and you're going to start to get these audit reports that start to come out. And there will be some valuation adjustments between companies who have been holding off in terms of readjusting the valuation. So I think that's really helpful.

但也許最重要的是估值，對嗎？我認為，這裡各家公司的審計師都在審查估值，您將會開始收到這些審計報告。而那些在估值調整方面有所延遲的公司之間也會進行一些估值調整。所以我認為這真的很有幫助。

And so right now, obviously, the investors are still holding off on investments, right? They're slowing at pace, but there's still a lot of good companies out there. There's still a lot of opportunities. They're still investing in early stage, but they have to prioritize their investments here, and they know they're probably going to have to hold on to these investments a little bit longer than anticipated because there's just not a whole lot of exits, as you know. There's just no IPOs. There's not a whole lot going on out there. But again, I think there's obviously a lot of dry powder. I think that's very helpful.

所以現在，顯然投資者仍在推遲投資，對嗎？他們的速度正在放慢，但仍然有很多優秀的公司。還有很多機會。他們仍在進行早期投資，但他們必須優先考慮這一階段的投資，而且他們知道，他們可能需要比預期更長時間地持有這些投資，因為正如你所知，退出機會並不多。只是沒有 IPO。那裡並沒有發生太多的事情。但我再次認為，顯然還有大量的乾火藥。我認為這非常有幫助。

Now when you shift to the lens of the entrepreneurial, as Greg mentioned, they have had a lot of cash. They've been sitting on that. But we are starting to see where they are resetting their spend levels, right? The layoffs, you're starting to see that in the news, which there's the good news and the bad news. Obviously, the bad news is the layoffs, but the good news is they're really starting to focus on their cash burn because they know they need to hold on to their cash for a lot longer. Advertising spends have been coming down over the last several months. And so that's been a big thing that we're seeing here. So they're all getting back to focusing on client acquisition costs and profitability. So again, growth just for growth's sake is no longer the thing to do. So economics do absolutely matter.

現在，當你轉向企業家的視角時，正如格雷格所提到的，他們已經擁有大量現金。他們一直坐在那裡。但我們開始看到他們正在重新設定他們的支出水平，對嗎？你開始在新聞上看到裁員的消息，有好消息，也有壞消息。顯然，壞消息是裁員，但好消息是他們真正開始關注現金消耗，因為他們知道他們需要更長時間地持有現金。過去幾個月廣告支出一直在下降。這是我們在這裡看到的一件大事。因此，他們都重新開始關注客戶獲取成本和獲利能力。所以，單純為了成長而成長已經不再是正確做法。因此經濟確實非常重要。

So they've been very, I would say, focused on valuations. They've been holding off in terms of taking more investments. But eventually, the cash starts to run out. Eventually, they start to reset their expectations on valuations. And so we believe we're starting to see some of that breakthrough. And again, I think over the next couple of months, I think that's when you would start to see, as Greg described, a little bit more stabilization there and perhaps as a platform here for the second half of the year to start to see some of those shoots that you were talking about.

所以我想說，他們非常關注估值。他們一直在推遲接受更多投資。但最終，現金開始耗盡。最終，他們開始重新設定對估值的期望。因此我們相信我們開始看到一些突破。而且，我認為在接下來的幾個月裡，你會開始看到，正如格雷格所描述的那樣，那裡會變得更加穩定，也許這裡會成為今年下半年的平台，開始看到你談到的一些拍攝。

Understood. And I guess maybe a separate question for Dan. When we think about from a balance sheet management perspective on the asset side, available-for-sale securities about $25 billion, $26 billion. Give us a sense, is there any view of like pulling forward some of those maturities and locking in higher interest rates today, given one, the curve has already inverted, who knows where it might be 6 months from now. Just give us a thought process around any piecemeal restructuring of the AFS book that we should think about?

明白了。我想也許這是給丹的單獨問題。當我們從資產負債表管理的角度考慮資產面時，可供出售證券約為 250 億美元、260 億美元。請給我們一個概念，是否有任何觀點，例如將一些到期日提前，並鎖定今天的更高利率，假設曲線已經反轉，誰知道 6 個月後它會在哪裡。能否提供我們一個我們應該考慮的關於 AFS 書籍的零碎重組的思考過程？

Yes. Ebrahim, good question. In the quarter, for example, we did $1 billion sale out of the treasury portfolio for AFS, to be very clear. And the rationale behind that is we look at the payback period on that sale, it was roughly 9 months. So that's really the way for us to look at from a tangible book value perspective, that payback period and opportunity. So I wouldn't say there's any desire for our wholesale change in the available-for-sale portfolio. But periodically, and with an opportunistic lens on payback period, we can do these small sales that, to some degree, can be offset by warrant gains and things along those lines. So thinking about it from a tangible book value perspective, but at the same time, looking opportunistically in payback period.

是的。易卜拉欣，好問題。例如，在本季度，我們從 AFS 的資金組合中出售了 10 億美元，這是非常明確的。背後的原因是，我們來看看該銷售的回收期，大約是 9 個月。因此，這實際上是我們從有形帳面價值角度看待回報期和機會的方式。因此，我不會說我們希望對可供出售的投資組合進行全面改變。但定期地，利用投資回收期的機會主義視角，我們可以進行這些小額銷售，在某種程度上，這些銷售可以透過認股權證收益和類似的東西來抵消。因此，要從有形帳面價值的角度來思考，但同時，也要把握回報期的機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Casey Haire with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

Couple of questions on Slide 12. First off, so the non-interest-bearing mix, high 30s by fourth quarter '23. That's obviously very difficult to sort of handicap. Just what's giving you confidence around that number?

投影片 12 上有幾個問題。顯然，這是非常難以克服的障礙。是什麼讓您對這個數字有信心呢？

Yes, Casey, it's Dan. I'll start. Mike might want to add as well. There are 2 things that we're looking at that give us a little bit more confidence on where that noninterest-bearing mix is going to bottom out. First and foremost, the teams have spent a lot more time getting into the detail across our different segments on where operating dollars live versus excess dollars in these deposit accounts. So exactly how much from a deposit perspective is available to be transferred. Now if that analysis is never perfect, but it allows us to start to get a sense of where we think that noninterest-bearing piece is going to live.

是的，凱西，我是丹。我先開始。 Mike 可能也想補充一下。我們正在關注的兩件事讓我們對無息資產組合何時觸底更有信心。首先，我們的團隊花了大量的時間來詳細了解我們不同部門的營運資金去向以及這些存款帳戶中的多餘資金。那麼從存款角度來看，到底有多少金額可以轉帳呢？現在，如果這種分析永遠不完美，但它可以讓我們開始了解我們認為不產生利息的部分將會存在哪裡。

And then secondly, when we take a big step back, and we've talked about this before, and we look at the total client funds of the company, and you start to think about noninterest-bearing bottoming out in the high 30% range, and looking at the fact that total client fund is close to the $340 billion range, that high 30s is really when you compare it to other banks that don't have off balance sheet in that mid-teens to high teens range, which we think, relative to our historical experience, is a bottom and is a low. So we've got the individual assessment that we've done plus just our historical experience on where that would bottom out in comparison to peer banks.

其次，當我們退後一步時，我們之前已經談論過這個問題，我們看看公司的總客戶資金，你開始想到非利息支出在 30% 的高位觸底，並且考慮到總客戶資金接近 3400 億美元的範圍，當你將其與其他沒有表外資產的銀行進行比較時，30% 的高點，這也是我們在 15% 的歷史範圍內，這也是一個低位經驗，這也是一個低因此，我們進行了單獨評估，並根據歷史經驗與同行銀行進行了比較，以確定最低點在哪裡。

Now it's not perfect for sure. And we're encouraged by the slowdown of the pace of that change here in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to continue throughout 2023.

現在它肯定不是完美的。我們對第四季度變化速度放緩感到鼓舞，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年。

Very good. And then in the letter, you guys talk about, you don't need to see VC deployment return to 2021 levels, which were obviously very strong. Can you just provide some color as to why that is? Because that comes up a lot because that was such obviously a monster year for deposits. And it's obviously flowing out now. And so it makes sense, the pushback that it's going to be very hard to replace what was a banner year.

非常好。然後在信中，你們談到，你們不需要看到創投部署回到 2021 年的水平，這顯然非常強勁。你能解釋為什麼會這樣嗎？因為這種情況出現了很多次，因為那顯然是存款激增的一年。現在它顯然正在流出。因此，這很有道理，人們認為，要取代輝煌的一年將非常困難。

Yes, Casey, I'll just go to the results of the fourth quarter as an indicator of why that statement makes sense. We're looking at venture deployment in the quarter $35 billion or so. So think of that as kind of an annualized run rate, $120 billion to $140 billion of venture deployment in the quarter from a balance sheet perspective on balance sheet. While we did see a decline in deposits, it was much lower than what we saw in the third quarter. And the reason for that gets to what Greg mentioned as well as Mike, where we're seeing that lower level of cash burn.

是的，凱西，我只想看看第四季的結果如何，以證明為什麼該說法是有道理的。我們預計本季的創投部署額將達到 350 億美元左右。因此，從資產負債表的角度來看，可以將其視為年化運行率，本季的創投部署金額為 1,200 億美元至 1,400 億美元。雖然我們確實看到存款有所下降，但比第三季的下降幅度要低得多。原因正如格雷格和麥克所提到的，我們看到現金消耗水準較低。

So even on a much slower venture deployment number, call it in the mid-$30 billion range, we started to see that on balance sheet deposit when we look at cash burn versus the inflows get to a much more normalized level. So that, I think, is an indicator with cash burn continuing to slow based on what Mike and Greg just said, that we can get back without going to the 2021 deployment levels, to not just the deposits being at the same level, but the potential for deposit growth.

因此，即使創投部署速度慢得多，例如在 300 億美元左右，我們也開始看到，當我們查看資產負債表上的現金消耗與流入時，會達到更正常化的水平。因此，我認為，根據 Mike 和 Greg 剛才所說的，這表明現金消耗繼續放緩，我們可以在不達到 2021 年部署水平的情況下恢復，不僅使存款保持在同一水平，而且還有存款增長的潛力。

Got you. Okay. Just last one for me. The premium amortization that you guys talked about for the first quarter here, you have it down a little bit, but it's predicated on a 3.75% tenure, which is a 10-year obviously, a little bit lower today, with incremental pressure on that number if it's, at the 10-year, finishes 50 bps lower. Can you just provide some color on the premium amortization because this does create a lot of, I think, confusion?

明白了。好的。對我來說這只是最後一個。你們談到的第一季的溢價攤銷已經有所下降，但這是基於 3.75% 的期限，顯然 10 年期的利率現在略低一些，如果 10 年期利率最終下降 50 個基點，這個數字就會面臨增量壓力。您能否提供一些有關保費攤銷的詳細信息，因為我認為這確實會造成很多混亂？

Yes. So we would still anticipate the premium amortization to decline here in the first quarter. And the reason for that is that mortgage spreads continue to come in. Now after the first quarter, to the extent that we continue to see the 10-year come down, we do have the sensitivity to an increase in premium amortization from that quarter. But just from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, consider that it's going to continue to come down just because of the decrease in mortgage spreads in the quarter.

是的。因此，我們仍然預計第一季保費攤銷將下降。原因在於抵押貸款利差持續擴大。但僅從第四季度到第一季度，考慮到它將繼續下降，因為本季抵押貸款利差下降。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

So to follow up with the pace of cash burn now slowing, has the amount of cash on hand and the burn levels, are those both of what you guys would consider a normal level right now? Or are those each still elevated?

那麼，隨著現金消耗速度的放緩，手頭上的現金數量和消耗水平是否都達到了你們現在認為的正常水平？還是它們各自都還處於升高狀態？

Yes, it's Greg. I'll start. Trying to say what normal is, is really difficult for a variety of different ways. When you go back and -- the one thing, if you go back 5 or 6, 7 years and try to say, well, is that more of a normal period? Our portfolio, we have a lot more mature companies in the portfolio to get to think about, they tend to keep a lot more cash. And so we don't have quite the same level of experience. I think towards the end of this year, my sense is I think we're going to get more to what I'll call more of a normal cash balance level because you're going to see the cash burn rates will still be elevated from the first half. They're going to be reducing, but it will still be higher. And so we'll get to this more, I'll call, normal level. And I think, again, when you get to '24, we expect a modest increase in venture capital deployment.

是的，他是格雷格。我先開始。試著說出什麼是正常，對於各種不同的人來說確實很困難。當您回顧過去——有一件事，如果您回顧 5 年、6 年或 7 年前並試圖說，那麼，那是否更是一個正常時期？我們的投資組合中有很多更成熟的公司值得考慮，它們往往會保留更多的現金。所以我們的體驗水平並不完全相同。我認為到今年年底，我們的現金餘額將達到更正常的水平，因為你會看到現金消耗率仍將高於上半年。它們將會減少，但仍然會更高。因此我們將達到我所說的正常水平。我認為，到了 24 年，我們預計風險資本部署將適度增加。

But one more thing that gets factored in is, which has been 0 for almost all of '22 and into the first part of '23 and most of '23, we don't expect a big impact, is private -- or public markets. And again, this is the longest time that there haven't really been any IPOs. And as we spend more time with our late-stage clients, there's many of them that are doing really well. And when that market opens up, we certainly believe that we are going to be in a really good position to do 2 things: one, help them go public, number one. And number two, be the beneficiaries of that cash when it comes in. And so all those things are factored in, which makes it -- it's just hard to predict exactly how "settle out to a normal level."

但還有一件事需要考慮，那就是在 22 年幾乎全年以及 23 年上半年以及 23 年的大部分時間裡，這一數字都為 0，我們預計不會對私人或公共市場產生重大影響。再說一次，這實際上是沒有任何 IPO 的最長時間。隨著我們花更多時間在後期客戶身上，許多客戶都表現得非常好。當這個市場開放時，我們確信我們將處於非常有利的位置來做兩件事：第一，幫助他們上市，這是第一名。第二，當現金到帳時，你要成為受益者。 所以，所有這些因素都要考慮在內，因此，很難準確預測如何「穩定到正常水平」。

Okay. That's fair. And I know it's not one for one, but very roughly, what type of year would you need from a VC investment level to get to this 2023 guidance? Like what is this roughly based on?

好的。這很公平。我知道這不是一對一的，但粗略地說，從創投水平來看，你需要什麼樣的年份才能達到 2023 年的指導？這大概是基於什麼呢？

Yes, I'll start, and Dan or Mike may want to add. And I tried to kind of give a little bit of this color at my opening comments. But the way to think about it is that we still expect in the first half of '23 that you're going to see kind of a 10% to 20% roughly decline in venture capital. And then you're going to kind of pick back up in the -- from those low points in the first half and pick up, but not a lot. So you're probably looking at -- again, if you annualize the fourth quarter, you're at about $144 billion. I think we're in that roughly $130 billion-ish for the year. Again, rough estimates because you factor everything in, you got to think about burn rates and everything else. But the point is that the run rate for the fourth quarter, our forecast for '23 is actually slightly lower than that. When you aggregate it, it's just more front-end loaded than negative, and we'll see a little bit of a benefit in the second half.

是的，我先開始，Dan 或 Mike 可能想補充。我在開場白中嘗試表達一點這種色彩。但思考的方式是，我們仍預期在23年上半年，創投將下降約10％至20％。然後你會從上半年的低潮回升，但不會太多。因此，您可能會看到——如果將第四季度按年化，則約為 1440 億美元。我認為今年我們的支出大約是 1,300 億美元左右。再次強調，這是一個粗略的估計，因為你把所有因素都考慮進去了，所以你必須考慮燒錢率和其他所有因素。但重點是，我們對 23 年第四季的運行率預測實際上略低於該水準。當你將它聚合起來時，它只是前端加載的更多而不是負面的，並且我們將在下半年看到一點好處。

Yes. Steve, just to add to what Greg was saying, it doesn't increase very much in the back half. So we're in no way, shape or form being aggressive thinking that the market is going to come back with significant amounts of deployment in the back half of the year. So you're not talking about a material shift in Q3 and Q4 in investment levels.

是的。史蒂夫，我補充一下格雷格所說的話，後半部並沒有增加太多。因此，我們絕對不會積極地認為市場將在今年下半年復甦並出現大量部署。所以你不是在談論第三季和第四季投資水準的重大變化。

But what we do see in Q3 and Q4, with the guidance that we're going to see a slowdown in the decline in noninterest-bearing deposits, plus the securities paydowns each quarter that you kind of -- you get to a normalization of net interest income and margin right around the midpoint of the year and then can start to see some growth into the fourth quarter, just with those factors alone. So a small increase in venture deployment, a stabilization in the noninterest-bearing levels that happens towards the back of 2023, plus the securities pay down starts to build momentum for net interest income.

但我們在第三季和第四季確實看到，根據指引，我們將看到無息存款的下降速度有所放緩，再加上每個季度的證券償還，您將在年中左右看到淨利息收入和利潤率的正常化，然後可以開始看到第四季度的一些增長，僅憑這些因素。因此，創投部署的小幅增加、2023 年後期無息水準的穩定以及證券償還的減少開始為淨利息收入形成動力。

Got it. Okay. And finally, just to clarify, you mentioned high 30% as the bottom. You said this a couple of times, the bottom in the noninterest-bearing mix. But then I thought you said that deposits might bottom the midpoint of the year and then grow in the second half. So do you actually expect noninterest-bearing deposits to bottom below the high 30s in the first half of the year and then grow to the high 30% level?

知道了。好的。最後，需要澄清的是，您提到的高 30% 是底線。您已經說過幾次了，無息資產組合處於底部。但後來我記得你說過存款可能會在今年年中觸底，然後在下半年成長。那麼，您是否真的預計無息存款將在今年上半年跌至 30% 以上的低位，然後增長至 30% 以上的水平？

No. Steve, the expectation is that we're going to continue to see some mix shift noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing really throughout all of 2023. And we would expect, as we get into the fourth quarter, that's where we're really going to see that bottom out from a noninterest-bearing to total deposit perspective. At the same time, what we can see in the back half of 2023 is with a small increase in venture deployment and the slowdown in cash burn that we expect to continue an improvement -- small improvement in the overall deposit level. So they're really 2 different things.

不。同時，我們可以看到，在 2023 年下半年，創投部署將略有增加，現金消耗將放緩，我們預計整體存款水準將繼續小幅改善。所以它們實際上是兩種不同的東西。

Okay. But it's an interest-bearing deposits where you're looking for that benefit in the second half?

好的。但它是一種有利息的存款，您希望在下半年獲得收益嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Your next question comes from the line of Brody Preston with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

I just wanted to maybe just follow up on the line of questioning on the noninterest-bearing. I just wanted to get a sense for, is there like a natural kind of level of noninterest-bearing deposits from an account level perspective that need to be -- these companies need to keep on hand? And I just asked just because you guys have actually done a pretty good job of actually maintaining account growth over the last couple of quarters. And so I just wanted to get a sense for if noninterest-bearing account levels, if there's an average account level where these things kind of naturally bottom out?

我只是想繼續回答有關無息的問題。我只是想了解一下，從帳戶層面來看，這些公司是否需要保留一定程度的自然無息存款？我之所以問這個問題，是因為你們在過去幾個季度確實在保持帳戶成長方面做得相當出色。所以我只是想了解無息帳戶水平，是否存在一個平均帳戶水平，這些東西會自然觸底？

Yes. Brody, it's Greg. I'm going to start at a high level, and Dan or Mike may want to add some color or commentary to it. The challenge to answer your question is that there is not any more an average client because it really depends upon early stage, mid stage, late stage, publicly traded, all those things.

是的。布羅迪，我是格雷格。我將從較高的層次開始，而 Dan 或 Mike 可能想添加一些內容或評論。回答你的問題的挑戰在於，不再有普通客戶，因為這實際上取決於早期、中期、後期、公開交易等所有這些階段。

But here's one way to think about it, again, why -- again, Dan made a comment about kind of this bottoming out. It was said, but I'll repeat. When you look at that high 30s kind of bottoming out of the noninterest-bearing accounts, you have to think about it and look at the totality of all the total client funds. Right now, we're at about a 24% of the -- all total client funds. But if you factor in this high 30s as a bottom, you're going to be in that mid to high teens against that total client funds.

但是，這裡有一種思考方式，再次，為什麼 - 丹再次對這種觸底反彈發表了評論。有人這麼說過，但我還是要重複一次。當您看到無息帳戶的最低點達到 30 多歲時，您必須考慮一下，並查看所有客戶資金總額。目前，我們約佔所有客戶資金的 24%。但是，如果您將 30 多億美元作為底線，那麼您的總客戶資金就會處於 15% 到 20% 的範圍內。

We believe historically, that would be low. And when you factor in all the types of clients that, that seems with all the data and information we have to be where we'd be bottoming out. Obviously, it can change, our assumptions could be wrong, but that's the analysis that we've done. So think about it in the mid- to high teens of total client funds, not just this 23%, 24% kind of at the end of the year. I don't know, Dan or Mike, if you guys would add anything to that.

我們認為，從歷史經驗來看，這個數字應該很低。而當你考慮到所有類型的客戶時，似乎我們必須擁有所有的數據和信息，並且已經到達了最低點。顯然，它可能會改變，我們的假設可能是錯誤的，但這就是我們所做的分析。因此，想想客戶資金總額的中高水平，而不僅僅是年底的 23%、24%。我不知道，丹或麥克，你們是否會對此進行補充。

Yes. Greg, it really gets back to the same thing. If you look at most commercial banks, you think of total noninterest-bearing deposits. Even in these rate cycles being in the high teens becomes a low watermark on noninterest bearing. And that's effectively where that on-balance sheet, high 30% noninterest-bearing range turns out to be, if you consider the totality of client bump. So that's 1 marker plus, like Greg said, the analysis that we do internally. So I think when we look at those things, yes, it's subject to change that at the same time, gives us confidence in the outlook.

是的。格雷格，事情確實又回到了同一件事。如果你看看大多數商業銀行，你會想到總無息存款。即使在這些利率週期中，處於高點也成為無息利率的低水位線。如果你考慮客戶的整體成長，那麼這實際上就是資產負債表上高達 30% 的無息範圍。所以就像 Greg 所說的那樣，這是一個標記加上我們在內部進行的分析。因此我認為，當我們審視這些事情時，是的，它可能會發生變化，但這同時也讓我們對前景充滿信心。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

Switching just a little bit over to the loan side and the growth you saw in -- and I think you talked about clients favoring debt over capital here. Have you changed underwriting? Or have you seen any better terms on loans that are being originated now versus earlier in the cycle for these early and mid-stage companies?

稍微轉到貸款方面以及您看到的增長——我認為您在這裡談到了客戶更喜歡債務而不是資本。您更改過承保嗎？或者，對於這些早期和中期公司來說，您是否看到現在發放的貸款條款比周期早期有更好的優惠？

Yes. This is Greg, I'll start, and Marc and Mike probably both will want to share a perspective on that. It's -- the growth has been, again, in the 3 years that we talked about, it's the technology side of the portfolio. It's been in the Global Fund Banking and then a little bit with the mortgages as well. And on the technology side, we've seen probably some of the best growth we've had in many, many, many years, clearly on an absolute dollar volume basis and even on a percentage basis. And that's one. It's just kind of the simple discussion.

是的。我是格雷格，首先，馬克和麥克可能都想就此分享觀點。正如我們所說，在這 3 年裡，成長是投資組合的技術面。它曾涉足全球基金銀行業務，也涉足抵押貸款業務。在技​​術方面，我們可能已經看到了多年來最好的成長，顯然無論是以絕對美元交易量還是以百分比計算都是如此。這就是其中之一。這只是簡單的討論。

We were competing, and we said this on many conference calls. We are competing as much with equity dollars and anything else. These companies, you'd sit back and go, we would love to lend money to you because of all the great fundamentals you have, but they just raised $200 million. So why would they want to borrow $20 million, $30 million? And so obviously, it's gotten harder. Not that they couldn't raise money, it's they're choosing not to because of the valuation that they would like to see. Those are great opportunities for us. So the team is doing a great job of winning really some great business in the technology side.

我們正在競爭，我們在許多電話會議上都說過這一點。我們正在股權美元和其他任何東西上進行激烈競爭。這些公司，你會坐下來，說，我們很樂意借錢給你們，因為你們有非常好的基本面，但他們剛剛籌集了 2 億美元。那他們為什麼要藉 2,000 萬美元、3,000 萬美元呢？顯然，事情變得更加困難了。並不是他們無法籌集資金，而是他們選擇不這樣做，因為他們希望看到的估值。這對我們來說是絕佳的機會。因此，該團隊在技術方面確實做得很好，並贏得了一些大生意。

In the Global Fund Banking, you've got -- again, we've been doing this longer than anybody else. So we've got a great experience. That's the term sheets and the new business is still in very, very strong demand. And we've seen some people pull out of the market. And so that allows us to, in some cases, get a little bit higher margin. But I'd say it's as much as getting -- making sure we have the highest quality clients that we're bringing on board to the platform. So it's still competitive, but we're able to bring in some great clients and we're able to see some nice outstandings in this environment. So I don't know, Marc or Mike?

在全球基金銀行方面，我們已經—再說一次，我們做這件事的時間比任何人都長。因此，我們獲得了非常棒的體驗。這就是條款清單，新業務的需求仍然非常強勁。我們已經看到一些人退出市場。在某些情況下，這使我們可以獲得更高的利潤。但我想說，這同樣重要——確保我們擁有加入該平台的最高品質的客戶。因此競爭仍然激烈，但我們能夠吸引一些優秀的客戶，也能夠在這種環境中看到一些優秀的優秀產品。所以我不知道，是馬克還是麥克？

So I'll just comment specifically on underwriting. That was part of your question. Generally speaking, we try to keep our underwriting standards consistent. And what that will mean generally in times when the environment is getting worse, is fewer clients clearing the bar. At the same time, as Greg mentioned, that has been offset by more demand. And so we are continuing to see some great opportunities to grow loans really across the segments, including the core tech and health care. Mike, anything you want to add?

所以我只想具體評論一下核保。這是你的問題的一部分。一般來說，我們會盡力維持承保標準的一致性。在環境越來越糟糕的時候，這通常意味著通過審核的客戶會越來越少。同時，正如格雷格所提到的，這已經被更多的需求所抵消。因此，我們繼續看到在各個領域真正增加貸款的絕佳機會，包括核心技術和醫療保健。麥克，您還有什麼要補充嗎？

Yes. The only thing I would add is, I mean, clearly, we're very cognizant of the economic environment that we're operating in. So when we're looking at underwriting, we're very conscientious of business models that are reliant on the consumer as the consumer might be hit with inflation, starting to think about interest rates and how they might impact the business models as well or their amount of financing. So all these things are coming into a factor. But as Marc said, right, we're very consistent in our underwriting standards, which has served us well for many, many years.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，我們顯然非常清楚我們經營的經濟環境。所以所有這些因素都會影響到。但正如馬克所說，我們的承保標準非常一致，這在許多年裡為我們帶來了良好的服務。

Okay. And then I guess a corollary to that, if you look at the credit expectations and the growth in the allowance, it looks like, on Slide 30, you're nearly at peak stage losses or very close to it for coverage. How much higher do you think we can see the allowance as a ratio go with sort of your broader credit expectation backdrop for normalizing losses?

好的。然後我猜想一個必然結果是，如果您看一下信貸預期和準備金的增長，您會發現在幻燈片 30 上，您的損失幾乎處於峰值階段，或者非常接近覆蓋範圍。您認為，為了使損失正常化，我們可以將備抵金比率與更廣泛的信用預期背景結合起來，提高多少呢？

So it's Marc, I'll start. Dan or others may wish to chime in. So certainly, there is a fair bit of reserve build, as you pointed out, in '22. Could the reserve go higher in '23? As I think you probably know, economic forecasts can drive the reserve as it did for us this particular quarter. So that's one factor. We could, as we've noted, see higher levels of nonperforming loans that could drive higher specific reserves. And so there is that potential for the reserve to go higher, again, recognizing that we have a fair bit of reserve builds behind us in '22.

那麼由馬克來開始吧。丹或其他人可能希望加入進來。 23年儲備量還會更高嗎？我想您可能知道，經濟預測可以推動儲備，就像我們這個季度所做的那樣。這是一個因素。正如我們已經注意到的，不良貸款水準可能會上升，導致特定準備金增加。因此，儲備水準有可能進一步提高，我們再次意識到，在2022年我們已經累積了相當多的儲備。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

I wanted to follow up on the reopening of IPO markets being a clear positive for the business. From a timing perspective, would you expect that reopening to coincide with the Fed pause? Or are we more likely to need to see rate cuts? Just curious for your high-level thoughts there.

我想跟進 IPO 市場的重新開放，這對業務來說顯然是一個利好。從時間角度來看，您是否預計重新開放將與聯準會暫停升息同時發生？或者我們更有可能需要看到降息？只是好奇你的高層想法。

Yes. I wish I had our SVB securities team on the line right now. They're closer to it than I am. But as we talked about it, I think we don't have a lot of expectations for things in '23 with a few exceptions, right? I think my view, when you start to see the top off of rates, and so I don't think they need to go down. I think they need to be stable at whatever level they're at. And I think just some confidence that, that's where we're going to hold, and we're not going to see a potential for another spike. So that's one data point.

是的。我希望現在能與我們的矽谷銀行證券團隊取得聯繫。他們比我更接近它。但正如我們所談論的，我認為除了少數例外，我們對 23 年的事情沒有太多期待，對嗎？我認為，當你開始看到利率達到最高點時，我就認為利率沒有必要下降。我認為無論處於什麼水平，他們都需要保持穩定。我認為，我們有信心，我們會堅持下去，不會再大幅上漲的可能性。這是一個數據點。

Second data point is, as I mentioned this earlier, when -- I've been spending more time with some of our later-stage clients that are -- they have a lot of the metrics that we would say they are in a position when the market opens up to go public. And I think there's -- when that stability happens, you're going to see some go out and test the waters. We need them to test the waters. And so I think could that happen in late Q3, Q4, the answer is yes. So I think if we see maybe a couple more rate hikes of 25 basis points and a quarter or a little more than a quarter of flattening, do I think that the market could open up for a few IPOs? The answer is yes.

第二個數據點是，正如我之前提到的，當我花更多時間與我們的一些後期客戶在一起時，他們擁有許多指標，我們可以說，當市場開放上市時，他們已經處於適當的位置。我認為，當這種穩定出現時，你會看到一些人出去試水。我們需要他們來試探一下。所以我認為這可能在第三季末或第四季發生嗎？因此，我認為，如果我們看到利率可能會再加息幾次，每次 25 個基點，並且一個季度或多一點的時間趨於平穩，我是否認為市場可能會為一些 IPO 開放？答案是肯定的。

But let me again take one more -- make one more point. Even when it opens up, it's not going to be a flood. It will be a trickle because it will be the ones that have the highest potential to go public, and people are going to wait to see how they perform. So I would say yes, maybe in the late third quarter, fourth quarter, you'll see an opening, but it's going to be a slow-paced opening when that happens.

但請容許我再強調一點。即使打開了，也不會造成洪水。這將會是一個涓涓細流，因為它將是最有可能上市的公司，人們將等著看它們的表現。所以我想說是的，也許在第三季末或第四季度，你會看到一個開局，但當它發生時，這將是一個緩慢的開局。

The only thing I'd add to it, Greg, is that we saw it in the fourth quarter on the biopharma side, in particular, good deal flow, good deal activity there. As that -- if you think about that business, that's the normal flow of fundraising activity for those types of clients. So we're not expecting a substantially strong year on the biopharma side, but I think that can become more constant and is embedded within our guidance expectations for 2023.

格雷格，我唯一要補充的是，我們在第四季度看到了生物製藥領域的交易流量和交易活動特別好。如果你考慮一下這項業務，你會發現這就是針對這類客戶所進行的正常募款活動流程。因此，我們並不預期生物製藥領域今年會取得顯著強勁的成長，但我認為這種成長態勢會更加穩定，這也包含在我們對 2023 年的指導預期中。

That's helpful. Separately, how would you characterize the current willingness of companies to take down funding rounds? And how would you say that compares to the appetite for dry powder deployment? Just curious if you think we're in any way getting closer to those 2 sites coming together.

這很有幫助。另外，您如何看待當前企業接受融資輪次的意願？您認為這與乾火藥部署的需求相比如何？我只是好奇，您是否認為我們以某種方式接近這兩個網站的合併。

Yes, it's Greg. I'll start. The -- it's exactly what you'd expect. We've seen this movie before. And you've got companies that are -- and you can see this in the venture capital data that was released in the fourth quarter. Late-stage rounds, there were a lot fewer of them. The valuation actually didn't drop a whole lot. And the reason for that is that investors looked at this as an opportunity to go in on a flat round in some of the highest profile companies that had actually done really well since their last round, but they can still get in at it, what they would say is a decent valuation.

是的，他是格雷格。我先開始。這——這正是您所期望的。我們以前看過這部電影。而且你有這樣的公司——你可以在第四季發布的創投數據中看到這一點。在後期輪次中，這樣的融資數量就少了很多。估值其實並沒有下降很多。原因在於，投資者將此視為一個機會，可以參與一些知名度最高的公司的平輪融資，這些公司自上一輪融資以來實際上表現得非常好，但他們仍然可以參與其中，因為他們會說這是一個不錯的估值。

Then you have another group of companies that are -- they're basically saying, hey, I'm going to take the lower valuation, I'm going to get it over with. Those are fewer. But we're going to see more of it over the course of '23.

然後，又有另一組公司——他們基本上在說，嘿，我要接受較低的估值，我要把這件事做完。那些比較少。但我們將在23年看到更多這樣的情況。

And then the final one is what I'll call the in between. It's the structured deal where it is -- it looks like it's the same round of valuation as the last round, but they have preferences and things like that, that you would say, when you really look through it, isn't keeping it at the same valuation. There's structure involved.

最後一個就是我所說的中間部分。這是結構化交易，看起來這一輪估值與上一輪相同，但他們有偏好等，當你真正仔細研究它時，你會發現它並沒有保持相同的估值。其中涉及結構。

All those things are happening, but you're going to see more, my view, more down rounds occur in '23. You'll see some more structured deals. So all 3 of those scenarios I played out, you're just going to see more activity happening. And again, as we talked about earlier, more in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year.

所有這些事情都在發生，但我認為，你會看到更多，23年會出現更多的降價潮。你會看到一些更結構化的交易。因此，在我演示的所有這三個場景中，您將會看到更多活動發生。正如我們之前所說的，下半年的成長幅度比上半年更大。

That's very helpful. If I could squeeze in one last one. I really wanted to follow up on your commentary around the noninterest-bearing deposit mix. I'm sorry to keep coming to that question about stabilizing in the high 30% range. But the question is sort of around this broad concern around the banking system in general that we're hearing from a lot of investors that we could see the mix of noninterest-bearing deposits revert to pre-GFC levels. But when we look to the pre-GFC era, your mix of noninterest-bearing deposits was in the mid- to high 60% range, which is around where you were pre-COVID. So I appreciate your commentary around looking at noninterest-bearing in relation to total client funds, but maybe like a broader question is, do you envision a scenario where we can sort of get back to that mid- to high 60% noninterest-bearing mix as we look beyond some of these more near-term liquidity pressures that you're dealing with?

這非常有幫助。如果我能擠進最後一個。我真的很想跟進您關於無息存款組合的評論。很抱歉，我不斷地問到關於穩定在 30% 高位的問題。但問題在於人們對整個銀行體系的普遍擔憂，我們從許多投資者那裡聽說，我們可能會看到無息存款組合恢復到全球金融危機之前的水平。但當我們回顧全球金融危機之前時，您的無息存款組合處於 60% 到 60% 的中高水平，這與新冠​​疫情之前的水平大致相同。因此，我很欣賞您對非生息資產與總客戶資金關係的評論，但也許更廣泛的問題是，當我們拋開您正在處理的一些短期流動性壓力不談時，您是否設想過這樣一種情景：我們可以回到 60% 左右的中高非生息資產組合？

Yes. As people would say, hope is not a strategy. So while it would be great to be there. There certainly is nothing in our forecast that would say we're getting back to that at all. And so do we -- is there a scenario that we would see an uptick from the bottom that we think will happen later this year? The answer is yes. And we haven't come out with a guidance on what that would look like, but it's going to be well below our historical level of noninterest deposits. I don't know, Dan, what you'd add to it?

是的。正如人們所說，希望不是一種策略。因此，去那裡感覺很棒。我們的預測中肯定沒有任何內容顯示我們會回到那個狀態。我們也是一樣——是否存在我們認為將在今年晚些時候從底部回升的情況？答案是肯定的。我們還沒有發布關於這一數字的指引，但它將遠低於我們的歷史非利息存款水準。丹，我不知道你想加什麼？

Yes. The other way to think about it is if you go back to the history pre-global financial crisis, just the size of the overall balance sheet, the types of companies that we bank are very, very different. And I think as a result of that change in client mix, we're not going to get back to those levels of noninterest-bearing deposits. That doesn't mean that we don't have the quality of the deposit franchise. It's just a different mix of clients now versus then with close to $215 billion balance sheet.

是的。另一種思考方式是，如果回顧全球金融危機之前的歷史，僅從整體資產負債表的規模來看，我們所銀行服務的公司類型是非常非常不同的。我認為，由於客戶結構的變化，我們不會回到無利息存款的水平。但這並不意味著我們沒有存款特許經營的品質。只是現在的客戶組合與當時不同，當時的資產負債表接近2,150億美元。

And maybe the only thing I would add on to what Dan said thinking more about it is there's kind of a -- the way you're describing is it's either it's market interest-bearing or it's 0. And I think you could see scenarios, and Mike and team have done a great job of this, is looking at different products and solutions. So you're going to see a whole different level on the interest-bearing deposits of different yields based on the profile of clients. So I think you have to understand that, yes, interest-bearing is going to be a higher percentage, but the spread of yields on that will be varying.

也許我唯一想補充的是，丹所說的，仔細思考一下，有一種——你描述的方式是，它要么是市場利息，要么是 0。因此，您將看到，根據客戶情況，不同收益率的計息存款水準存在很大差異。所以我認為你必須明白，是的，計息比例會更高，但收益率的差距會有所不同。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the off-balance sheet funds balance, I think it's about $168 billion as of the end of the year. Can you just update us again how much of that is available? Or are you able to bring on balance sheet? And how much of that do you expect to be used under your -- that's baked into your guidance here? And any other dynamics in terms of that could be impacting that balance?

至於表外資金餘額，我認為截至年底約為 1,680 億美元。您能否再次更新目前有多少可用資源？或者您能夠將其納入資產負債表嗎？其中有多少是您預計會用到的——這已經包含在您的指導中了？還有什麼其他動態因素可能影響這種平衡嗎？

Yes. John, it's Dan. And we had talked about it in the past. We believe that there's still access, obviously, doing the right things for clients to roughly half of that off-balance sheet balance. So sitting where we are, that still leaves a sizable opportunity across what's classified as sweep and what's classified as repo. So that's a substantial opportunity for us.

是的。約翰，我是丹。我們過去也討論過這個問題。我們認為，顯然，我們仍然可以為客戶採取正確的措施，以獲得大約一半的表外餘額。因此，就我們目前的情況來看，在被歸類為清掃的交易和被歸類為回購的交易中，仍然存在相當大的機會。這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

In terms of how much we're including in the forecast, we're still expecting to see some of that move on to the balance sheet, but the pace of that is expected to continue to slow into 2023. And that's all included in our net interest income guidance and in the interest-bearing deposit beta guidance.

就我們在預測中包含的內容而言，我們仍預期其中一部分將轉移到資產負債表上，但預計到 2023 年這一速度將繼續放緩。

Got it. Got it. All right. And then any actions considered for your available-for-sale securities portfolio at this point?

知道了。知道了。好的。那麼，您現在考慮針對可供出售證券投資組合採取什麼行動嗎？

Yes. John, it's Dan again. Very clear that we're only talking about available for sale. In the quarter, we did opportunistically sell $1 billion worth of treasury securities at a very short payback period with limited impact to tangible book value, considering that we also had some warrant gains in the quarter. So I think what you're going to see from us is less of a broad review across available for sale and actions there. But you'll see us opportunistically where the rate environment -- the payback period makes sense. And also protecting tangible book value, we take some of those actions to effectively accelerate the pay downs of that book. Again, that's opportunistic. That's for net interest income generation purposes more than anything else. And again, we did $1 billion of that in the quarter.

是的。約翰，又是丹。非常清楚，我們只談論可供出售。在本季度，我們確實趁機出售了價值 10 億美元的國庫證券，回收期很短，對有形賬面價值的影響有限，考慮到我們在本季度也獲得了一些認股權證收益。因此，我認為您從我們這裡看到的並不是對可供出售產品和相關行動的廣泛評論。但你會看到我們抓住機會，在利率環境——回收期——合理的情況下。為了保護有形帳面價值，我們採取了一些措施來有效地加速帳面價值的償還。再說一遍，這是機會主義的。這是為了產生淨利息收入的目的，而不是其他任何事情。我們本季的銷售額達到了 10 億美元。

Right. So -- but nothing immediately planned beyond that $1 billion, but (inaudible)?

正確的。那麼 —— 但是除了 10 億美元之外，沒有任何立即的計劃，但是（聽不清楚）？

No. And again, anything we're talking about is within available for sale, and it's opportunistic and protective of tangible book value.

不。

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then separately, on the credit front, just because still feel a fair amount of incoming from investors regarding potentially underappreciated credit risk in your story. Is there -- where are you seeing stress in materializing that just both hurting where you expect some losses materialize and go against some of the reserve build that you've already put up. What are the most noteworthy areas where you're beginning to see some of that stress?

知道了。知道了。好的。然後另外，在信貸方面，只是因為仍然感覺到來自投資者的相當多關於你的故事中潛在的被低估的信貸風險的意見。您是否認為壓力會實際出現，既會對您預期的損失造成傷害，又會與您已經建立的一些儲備相違背。您開始在哪些最值得注意的領域看到這種壓力？

It's Marc. I'll start. Dan or Mike may wish to contribute. But it is consistent with our historical experience. It's the early-stage venture-backed investor-dependent cohort where we have and would expect to continue to see the most stress.

是馬克。我先開始。 Dan 或 Mike 可能希望做出貢獻。但這與我們的歷史經驗是一致的。早期創投支持的投資者依賴型群體是我們目前面臨最大壓力的群體，並且預計未來將繼續面臨最大的壓力。

Okay. All right. And then lastly for me is just the capital markets investment banking pipeline. If you can maybe just comment there with just saying sorry if you've already touched on it, but I just want to see if you can talk a little bit about what you're seeing there in terms of deal opportunities as you look out into 2023?

好的。好的。最後對我來說就是資本市場投資銀行通路。如果您已經談到這一點，您可以在這裡評論一下，並表示抱歉，但我只是想看看您是否可以談談您在展望 2023 年時看到的交易機會？

Yes. It's Greg. We don't -- we haven't talked about pipeline. We did give guidance on what we expect that outlook to be from a revenue perspective, which is an uptick from where we saw it in '22. And so maybe just kind of walk through like why would we show an improvement.

是的。是格雷格。我們沒有——我們還沒有談論管道。我們確實從收入角度給出了對前景的預期，這比我們在22年看到的有所上升。所以也許只是稍微回顧一下為什麼我們會表現出進步。

If you recall back, you've got -- there's kind of 3 parts -- actually 4 parts of the business. You get the biopharma business, which is really what we brought on board an incredible franchise with Leerink partners. Then we added health care services, we added technology. And they had -- the team had sales and trading, and they had research. But now then with the addition of MoffettNathanson, you have to look at the entire platform.

如果你回想一下，你會發現——業務實際上分為 3 個部分——4 個部分。你得到了生物製藥業務，這實際上是我們與 Leerink 合作夥伴共同建立的令人難以置信的特許經營權。然後我們增加了醫療保健服務，增加了技術。他們有——團隊有銷售和交易，也有研究。但現在隨著 MoffettNathanson 的加入，您必須審視整個平台。

So now you've got M&A capability, full ECM capability across all 3 verticals. You have strong sales and trading. And you have actually, I would say, incredible research when you look across the entire platform. So you have a full-stack platform. And it's actually -- people are in the saddles and they're productive.

所以現在您已經擁有了 M&A 能力以及涵蓋所有 3 個垂直領域的完整 ECM 能力。您的銷售和交易能力很強。當你縱觀整個平台時，我想說，你實際上進行了令人難以置信的研究。因此您擁有一個全端平台。事實確實如此——人們在掌舵，並且富有成效。

And so even though the market is going to be a challenge, we look across that whole portfolio of opportunities and actually feel very good. I feel very good about the team, the strategy and their ability to execute. This is going to be a tough year. Our outlook shows it's going to be a tough year. But I'm actually really excited about '24 and '25, and having that team be on the platform longer and really, I think, take advantage of an improving market at some point. But it's going to be a tough market, but still an uptick in revenue from what we saw in '22.

因此，儘管市場面臨挑戰，但我們縱觀整個機會組合，實際上感覺非常好。我對這個團隊、策略和他們的執行能力感到非常滿意。今年將是艱難的一年。我們的展望表明這將是艱難的一年。但實際上我對 24 年和 25 年感到非常興奮，希望這個團隊能夠在平台上待更長時間，我認為，在某種程度上，能夠真正利用不斷改善的市場。但這將是一個艱難的市場，但收入仍將比我們在22年看到的情況上升。

Your next question comes from the line of Jennifer Demba with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jennifer Demba。

Question on credit quality. I know you have a very small commercial real estate portfolio. But I wonder if you could just kind of give us a characterization of what's in there and if you have any concerns about any piece of it, I know it's really small, but a lot of banks have been talking about concern about commercial real estate in a tougher environment.

關於信用品質的問題。我知道你的商業房地產投資組合很小。但我想知道您是否可以給我們描述一下其中的情況，以及您是否對其中的任何部分感到擔憂，我知道這真的很小，但很多銀行一直在談論對更嚴峻環境下商業房地產的擔憂。

It's Marc. And that is a segment certainly bears watching, particularly if there is a recession in the offing. But generally speaking, as you pointed out, it's 3% of total loans. It's reasonably well diversified across several different categories. And probably what's most important, it is -- that it's, on average, well margins relative to the underlying real estate collateral.

是馬克。這是一個值得關注的部分，特別是在經濟衰退即將來臨的情況下。但一般來說，正如您所指出的，它佔總貸款的 3%。其在多個不同類別中的多樣化程度相當高。或許最重要的是 — — 平均而言，它的利潤率相對於基礎房地產抵押品來說較高。

So that was certainly going back to the Boston Private acquisition. It was a portfolio we were more concerned about in part because it was -- we were in the depths of COVID at the time, and it has continued to really outperform my expectations.

所以這肯定是回到波士頓私人收購案。我們之所以更加關注這個投資組合，部分原因是——當時我們正處於 COVID 的深淵，而它的表現一直超乎我的預期。

Is there any office exposure in that?

其中有辦公室曝光嗎？

There is some office exposure. It is not -- an enormous part of that 3% is significant. And again, so far, has continued to outperform expectations.

有一些辦公室曝光。事實並非如此——這 3% 中很大一部分是重要的。到目前為止，其表現仍然超乎預期。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的克里斯·科托斯基（Chris Kotowski）。

It's a question, I guess, mainly for Dan. And I hear you and I understand exactly why you're saying the only securities restructuring would be in the available-for-sale portfolio. But I wonder, as you're looking at that held-to-maturities portfolio, I'm looking at your average balance sheet, like the $85 billion taxable held-to-maturities portfolio. I wonder just if you can highlight a few of the dynamics of the runoff there.

我想，這主要是針對丹的一個問題。我聽到了您的聲音，也完全理解您為什麼說唯一的證券重組就是在可供出售的投資組合中進行。但我想知道，當您查看持有至到期投資組合時，我正在查看您的平均資產負債表，例如 850 億美元應稅持有至到期投資組合。我想知道您是否可以強調那裡的決選的一些動態。

And the first thing I'd say is I noticed like the yield went down from like 1.92% to 1.70% to -- from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Presumably, that's the $50 million of amortization, but I'm wondering, what's the go forward? I mean, was the third quarter a $50 million good guy? Or is the fourth quarter a $50 million bad guy? I guess that's the first thing. Should we expect something like with a 1.70% handle or a 1.90% handle?

我首先要說的是，我注意到從第三季到第四季度，收益率從 1.92% 下降到 1.70%。據推測，這是 5000 萬美元的攤銷，但我想知道，接下來會怎麼樣？我的意思是，第三季的營收達到 5,000 萬美元，是個好東西嗎？或者第四季是一個價值 5,000 萬美元的壞傢伙？我想這是第一件事。我們是否應預期出現 1.70% 或 1.90% 這樣的成長？

And then secondly, I guess I'm wondering, I mean, from the disclosures in the 10-Q, it looks like that has a very long maturities profile. Is there like any significant runoff that would kind of, on a natural basis, take -- pick that portfolio over, say, 3% yield handle at any time in the next 12 to 24 months?

其次，我想知道的是，從 10-Q 的揭露內容來看，它似乎具有非常長的到期期限。是否會出現任何明顯的流失，以自然的方式選擇該投資組合，例如在未來 12 到 24 個月內的任何時間選擇 3% 的收益率？

Yes. It's Dan. I think first and foremost, that payoff profile there, we're getting off that book anywhere between $2 billion to $3 billion a quarter, so think $12 billion annualized run down in that portfolio. And those assumptions were where 10-year rates were just a couple of weeks ago. So we now think about 10-year 3.30% and 3.40%. You can pick up some pay down acceleration associated with that. We'll see how material that becomes and where the 10 years ultimately land.

是的。是丹。我認為，首先也是最重要的，那裡的收益情況是，我們每季從帳面上獲得的收益在 20 億至 30 億美元之間，因此想想該投資組合每年的損失為 120 億美元。這些假設與幾週前的 10 年期利率一致。因此我們現在考慮10年期3.30%和3.40%。您可以獲得與此相關的一些付款加速。我們將會看到它會變成什麼樣子以及這十年最終會走向何方。

So I think you're going to continue to see some improvement, but in this kind of $2 billion to $3 billion a quarter, like a clock, just continues to pay down with the opportunity to accelerate if 10-year rates come down from there.

所以我認為你會繼續看到一些改善，但是這種每季 20 億到 30 億美元的支出，就像一隻時鐘，只是繼續償還，並且如果 10 年期利率從那裡下降，就有機會加速。

We think about yields themselves, I think as we look at Q1, we're still talking about in the high 1.70 to the mid-1.80 range in that book and a lot of that really comes down to where premium amortization comes in for the portfolio.

我們考慮收​​益率本身，我認為當我們回顧第一季時，我們仍然在談論 1.70 高點到 1.80 中位數區間，而這很大程度上取決於投資組合的溢價攤銷。

So those are really the factors. Watch the 10-year yield to the extent that, that continues to come down, you could see an acceleration of payments on that book, which obviously just make things go faster there and get us closer to that inflection point of NII and NIM sooner, if that were to occur.

所以這些才是真正的因素。觀察 10 年期收益率，如果收益率繼續下降，你會看到帳簿上的付款加速，這顯然會使事情進展得更快，並使我們更快地接近 NII 和 NIM 的拐點，如果這種情況發生的話。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Andrew Liesch。

Just curious, if you look at the investor-dependent cohort right now, how much cash runway do they have? Obviously, they've been trying to sell their cash burn. It sounds like they've been successful at doing that. But how does the cash position stand looking out for the next year or so?

只是好奇，如果你看看現在依賴投資人的群體，他們有多少現金流？顯然，他們一直在試圖炫耀自己的現金消耗。聽起來他們已經成功做到這一點了。但未來一年左右的現金狀況將會如何呢？

Yes. The -- so we track remaining months of liquidity, we call it. Otherwise referred to as runway. And the majority of that portfolio at last check still had over a year's worth of cash on hand.

是的。所以我們追蹤剩餘月份的流動性，我們稱之為。也稱為跑道。經過最後一次檢查，該投資組合中的大部分仍持有足夠一年使用的現金。

Got it. All right. That's helpful. And then just shifting gears on the funding side. When investment activity does come back and client funds come in, how do you expect the mix to trend with respect to deposits versus off-balance sheet funds?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後就在資金方面進行轉變。當投資活動恢復並且客戶資金流入時，您預期存款和表外資金的組合趨勢會如何？

Yes. This is Dan. I think based on a potential recovery in venture deployment, again, we don't have a substantial pickup at all in the earnings guidance for 2023. But imagining that we do start to see a pickup there, I think we're going to continue to direct those funds on the balance sheet. We think about the composition of those funds as they come in. They'll likely be less expensive than what we've got from the off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet product.

是的。這是丹。我認為，基於創投部署的潛在復甦，我們對 2023 年的獲利預測根本沒有大幅回升。我們會考慮這些資金的組成 它們可能比我們從表外到表內產品中獲得的資金更便宜。

So over time, to the extent that, that accumulates, we'll look at, over time, shifting more of those expensive deposits. That's one of the benefits of that product is that it's not a one-way door. We have the ability to shift it off the balance sheet to accelerate the improvement in net interest income and net interest margin.

因此，隨著時間的推移，當存款不斷累積時，我們會考慮轉移更多昂貴的存款。該產品的優點之一就是它不是單向門。我們有能力將其轉移出資產負債表，以加速淨利息收入和淨利差的改善。

So I think we'll -- for -- if you think of the switch and how we toggle the switch, the switch will be continued toggled on the balance sheet as we drive some of those higher-costing deposits off the balance sheet. And to be very clear, we don't expect this to come in. It's all noninterest bearing. It will certainly be more heavily weighted to interest-bearing in this higher-for-longer environment, but still be cheaper than those off-balance sheet client funds.

所以我認為，如果你考慮這個開關以及我們如何切換這個開關，當我們將一些成本較高的存款從資產負債表上剔除時，這個開關將繼續在資產負債表上切換。要先明確的是，我們並不期望這些收入能夠到帳。在這種長期高利率環境下，其利息支出比重肯定會更大，但仍比表外客戶資金便宜。

Your next question comes from the line of David Smith with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 David Smith。

On the capital call lines and Global Fund Banking, could you just say a little bit about how much of the growth was driven by new lines of commitments versus any change in utilization?

關於資本調用額度和全球基金銀行，您能否稍微說一下，成長中有多少是由新的承諾額度推動的，有多少是由利用率的變化所推動的？

So as far as the new client business, I mean, most of it was from utilization, the change from an outstanding perspective. So we did have some new -- obviously, new client fundings. But -- so I'd say it varies from quarter-to-quarter. So it's probably not anything to make a -- have a dramatic change. So I don't know, Dan, if you would add anything to it.

所以就新客戶業務而言，我的意思是，大部分都是從利用率、從傑出角度的轉變而來的。因此，我們確實有一些新的——顯然是新的客戶資金。但是 — — 我想說的是，它每季都有所不同。因此，這可能不會帶來什麼重大變化。所以我不知道丹，你是否有需要補充的內容。

Yes. I think when we look at the quarter from a funded perspective, we did have growth in capital call. And at the same time, that was off of lower utilization. So you've got some net new clients in there. I think more notable is the increase in the amount of term sheets and net new unfunded commitments, which, over the next 6 to 9 to 12 months, are really going to be a tailwind for us from a loan growth perspective. I think that's most notable also drove an element of the provision increase in the quarter.

是的。我認為，當我們從資金角度來看本季時，我們的資本需求確實有所成長。同時，這是由於利用率較低所造成的。所以你在那裡獲得了一些新客戶。我認為更值得注意的是條款清單和淨新未撥付承諾數量的增加，從貸款增長的角度來看，在未來 6 到 9 到 12 個月內，這對我們確實是一個順風。我認為最值得注意的是，這也是推動本季撥備增加的因素。

Okay. So just to be clear, lines were up, but utilization was down slightly, but on net outstandings were higher?

好的。所以需要明確的是，線路增加了，但利用率略有下降，但淨未償還金額更高？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. And just unpacking the SVB Securities outlook a little bit more, it's largely biopharma driven in the fourth quarter, as I understand it. What kind of tech recovery is contemplated in the guide for 2023?

好的。據我了解，進一步解讀一下 SVB 證券的前景，第四季主要是受到生物製藥產業的推動。 2023 年的指引考慮了哪種技術復甦？

Very little. Very little. Again, as I said, now having the full platform and people in the saddle for longer and those deeper relationships being built, it's really just able to pick up some market share. We don't -- we just don't have a lot of new activity in there.

非常少。非常少。再說一遍，正如我所說的，現在擁有了完整的平台和人員，並且擁有更長的服務以及正在建立的更深層次的關係，它實際上能夠獲得一些市場份額。我們沒有——我們只是沒有太多新的活動。

Okay. Is it fair to call it still largely a biopharma story for next year?

好的。是否可以說明年的焦點仍是生物製藥產業的故事？

No. I think it's -- I think clearly, you're going to see more of a mix. Biopharma, we do fine, but it's M&A in technology, it's M&A in health care services. So M&A is going to be the bigger part. So here's how I would describe it. Biopharma is probably going to still be a mix of ECM and M&A. Technology, health care services is going to be more driven for the year with M&A. And maybe towards the end of the year, you start to see a little bit of a pickup in ECM and the technology side.

不。生物製藥，我們做得很好，但這是科技領域的併購，是醫療保健服務領域的併購。因此，併購將佔據更重要的地位。因此，我將這樣描述它。生物製藥可能仍將是 ECM 和 M&A 的混合體。今年，科技和醫療保健服務將透過併購變得更加活躍。也許到今年年底，您會開始看到 ECM 和技術方面的一些回升。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher McGratty with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Christopher McGratty。

Great. Greg, your balance sheet historically has been one of the more asset sensitive. We're going through a period of really big rate increases. So you moved to the other side. If we look at the forward curve, which begins the pricing cuts, and I know your guidance doesn't factor in cuts. How do we think the margin will perform if the Fed fund rate gets cut as we look into next year? Should the balance sheet flip to being liability-sensitive in that respect?

偉大的。格雷格，從歷史上看，你們的資產負債表對資產的敏感度一直較高。我們正處於利率大幅上漲的時期。所以你就移到另一邊了。如果我們看一下開始降價的遠期曲線，我知道您的指導並未將降價考慮在內。展望明年，如果聯邦基金利率下調，我們認為利潤率會如何表現？資產負債表是否應該轉向對負債敏感的表態？

Yes, Chris, it's Dan. I think if you look at our disclosure of what we're talking about for potential rate increases, you start to see that, that -- which has factored -- at least the next couple of increases are factored into our guidance. You start to see that we could be liability-sensitive associated with that. So in the case that the Fed starts to decrease rates, and again, we don't have any of that baked into our estimates, that could start to be a bit more of a tailwind from an NII perspective, reducing the overall pricing on some of those more expensive deposits faster than what we have incorporated in our model. So I think you can look to the asset sensitivity disclosure and look to the same potential for a reduction to the extent that rates come down.

是的，克里斯，我是丹。我認為，如果你看一下我們披露的有關潛在加息的信息，你就會開始發現，至少接下來的幾次加息已被考慮在我們的預期之中。您開始發現我們可能會對此承擔責任。因此，如果聯準會開始降低利率，而且我們還沒有將這些因素納入我們的估計中，那麼從國家資訊基礎結構指數 (NII) 的角度來看，這可能會開始產生更大的順風作用，從而以比我們在模型中納入的速度更快的速度降低其中一些較昂貴存款的整體價格。因此，我認為您可以查看資產敏感性披露，並觀察利率下降的相同潛力。

And maybe, Chris, just to add on because I think you kind of had 2 questions. One is maybe short term and in the long term. And I think when we settle out to find out kind of that -- kind of normalization, and then when you see, let's say, you got back to whatever that normal floor is or a flattening of rates at some point some lower levels, and then -- at that point, I think if you saw some rate increases, modest ones, I think we'd be back into the more asset-sensitive side.

也許，克里斯，我只是想補充一下，因為我覺得你有兩個問題。一個可能是短期的，一個可能是長期的。我認為，當我們安定下來，找到那種正常化狀態時，然後當你看到，比方說，你回到了正常的下限，或者在某個較低的水平上利率趨於平穩，然後——在那個時候，我認為如果你看到利率有所增加，適度的增加，我想我們會回到對資產更敏感的一面。

I think it's just right now, and you said it, we see -- we saw such a rapid increase in rates, which we've never seen before. And that's what kind of made the biggest change in addition to the kind of construction of the balance sheet. Those 2 things caused it to be kind of out of historical norm. And it's going to take a little while for us to get back to that place where we can eventually get back to a base level, although less level of asset sensitivity.

我認為現在就是這樣，正如您所說，我們看到——我們看到利率如此快速地上升，這是我們以前從未見過的。這就是除了資產負債表的建構之外，最大的變化。這兩件事讓它有點不合歷史常態。我們還需要一點時間才能最終回到基準水平，儘管資產敏感度會降低。

That's great. If I could just follow it up. One of your competitors last week talked about deferring costs into the out year given the environment. Appreciating the low single-digit guide for expenses this year. Were certain projects just pushed to next year? Or is there -- I know you talked about hiring slowing, but is there a natural ramp that comes back into the expense growth rate once environments get a little bit better?

那太棒了。如果我可以跟進的話。上週，你們的一位競爭對手錶示，考慮到當前環境，將把成本推遲到明年。對今年的低個位數支出指南表示讚賞。某些項目是否延後到明年？或者——我知道您談到了招聘放緩，但是一旦環境稍微好轉，費用增長率是否會自然上升？

Yes. There's -- I'll talk about, Chris, philosophically how we've operated from an expense perspective over years in cycles, and then more specifically about the guidance that you gave, and then Dan can add comments to it. And we've said this. When you go back and look at the pace of investment we made in digital, in infrastructure and a whole variety of risk management, a lot of different things. We looked at it and said, look, when times are better, we're earning more money. We're going to kind of accelerate that investment level because we have an insatiable appetite for investment because of our target market and the market overall and where it's growing and how large it is.

是的。克里斯，我將從哲學角度談談我們多年來如何從費用角度週期性地運作，然後更具體地談談你給出的指導，然後丹可以對其進行評論。我們已經說過這​​一點了。當你回顧我們在數位、基礎設施和各種風險管理方面的投資速度時，你會發現很多不同的事情。我們看著它說，看，當情況好轉時，我們會賺更多的錢。我們將加速這一投資水平，因為我們對投資有無盡的興趣，因為我們的目標市場和整個市場正在成長，而且規模很大。

And so -- and when you have times like this, that's just a more challenging, more uncertain market or more headwinds, you're going to take a look and you're going to say -- you're going to basically prioritize and you're going to kind of optimize what you have.

所以 — — 當你遇到這樣的時刻，那隻是一個更具挑戰性、更不確定的市場或更多的阻力，你會看一看，你會說 — — 你會基本上確定優先事項，你會優化你所擁有的。

So does that mean slowing down some projects? Yes, it does. Does it mean potentially pushing things out into future years? It does. But we have that prioritized list. And as things start to improve, we're going to start to put more money behind those projects. We have in the deck where we're making the investment focus, our prioritized list. So it's more in the private banking, wealth management, got a go-to-market strategy. Secondly, in the commercial bank, kind of focus there and digital enhancements. Third is this one SVB collaboration, just making sure that we're working across the entire platform. And that's just really important to make sure that we leverage our investments, leverage our acquisitions and really take care of our clients, deliver for our clients in a meaningful way.

那麼這是否意味著一些項目將放緩？是的。這是否意味著可能會將事情推遲到未來幾年？是的。但我們有優先列表。隨著情況開始好轉，我們將開始向這些項目投入更多資金。我們在卡片上列出了投資重點和優先順序清單。因此，它更多地是在私人銀行和財富管理領域採取行銷策略。其次，商業銀行的重點是數位化增強。第三是與 SVB 的這次合作，只是為了確保我們在整個平台上開展工作。這真的很重要，確保我們利用我們的投資，利用我們的收購，真正照顧我們的客戶，以有意義的方式為我們的客戶提供服務。

And then the last one is risk management, which, again, we continue to enhance as we are in this LFI status. And both expectations and just our own needs are increased. And so that's how we think about prioritization and so forth. So Dan, what would you add to that?

最後一個是風險管理，我們處於 LFI 狀態，我們會繼續加強風險管理。我們的期望和自身需求都在增加。這就是我們對優先事項等等的看法。那麼丹，你對此還有什麼補充嗎？

Yes. I think as long as it's clear, we're going to continue to invest here, even in a more challenged 2023. Across the elements that Greg mentioned, that's key, I think, for us to emphasize. We're able to optimize that spend also as we're looking at changing the mix between professional services and cheaper full-time employees. That's just another way for us to get optimization from a cost perspective, and we're doing that, and that also helps us from a sustainability perspective.

是的。我認為，只要情況明確，我們就會繼續在這裡投資，即使在更具挑戰性的 2023 年。我們正在考慮改變專業服務和更便宜的全職員工之間的組合，因此我們也能夠優化這些支出。這只是我們從成本角度實現最佳化的另一種方式，我們正在這樣做，而且從永續性的角度看這也對我們有幫助。

And then I think the last part of your question is to the extent that the environment improves, are we going to go back to that more traditional, higher expense run rate? And I think that's going to be a balance. And I think for us, the overall return, the profitability of the franchise is continuously important. So we'll have to continue to balance those investments as our profitability returns to more normal levels.

然後我認為你問題的最後一部分是，在環境改善的程度上，我們是否會回到更傳統、更高的費用運作率？我認為這將是一個平衡。我認為對我們來說，特許經營的整體回報和盈利能力始終非常重要。因此，當我們的獲利能力恢復到更正常水平時，我們必須繼續平衡這些投資。

That's great color. And maybe just the last one. I know the environment is uncertain, but thoughts on a buyback over time given the valuation?

顏色真棒。或許這只是最後一個。我知道環境是不確定的，但考慮到估值，您是否考慮過隨著時間的推移進行回購？

Yes, Chris, I think we've said this in the past. We're always going to remain open to looking at our options from a capital perspective. Obviously, 2023, we're not expecting a lot in terms of major acceleration in deployment. But to the extent that deployment does come back and does come back quickly, you can start to see the balance sheet increase and again, more pressure from a Tier 1 leverage perspective.

是的，克里斯，我想我們過去說過這件事。我們將始終保持開放態度，從資本角度審視我們的選擇。顯然，我們對 2023 年部署的大幅加速不會有太大期待。但如果部署確實恢復並且恢復得很快，你就會開始看到資產負債表增加，而且從一級槓桿的角度來看，壓力也會更大。

So we certainly don't have that now, but it's something that we need to continue to be cognizant of. So I think as we look ahead, we're just going to continue to keep our options open. But again, I think growth over the medium and the long term is the thing that we need to prepare for.

所以我們現在當然還沒有意識到這一點，但這是我們需要繼續認識的事情。因此我認為，展望未來，我們將繼續保留我們的選擇。但我再次認為，我們需要為中長期成長做好準備。

There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to Greg Becker for final remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我把電話轉回給格雷格·貝克爾，請他做最後的評論。

Great. Thanks. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We tried to give as much detail. And again, I give a huge amount of credit to our IR team to put together a lot of information, a lot of detail on kind of what we're seeing, the outlook, what are the key drivers. And so I think that's really helpful.

偉大的。謝謝。感謝大家今天的參與。我們盡力提供盡可能多的細節。再次，我非常感謝我們的 IR 團隊，他們收集了大量的信息，非常詳細地介紹了我們所看到的情況、前景以及關鍵驅動因素。所以我認為這真的很有幫助。

And I think, again, just to reiterate, when you go back and look at fourth quarter, there is a lot of really healthy signs, whether it's loan growth, core fee income growth, nice growth in investment banking, and probably maybe most importantly, this kind of stabilization of this inflow of venture with a pulling back or slowing down of cash burn. So that was great to see.

我認為，再次重申，當你回顧第四季時，會發現很多非常健康的跡象，無論是貸款成長、核心費用收入成長、投資銀行業務的良好成長，或許最重要的是，創投流入的穩定，現金消耗的減少或放緩。我很高興看到這一點。

That being said, look, the market is still very, very choppy. There's still a lot of uncertainty out there, which is why we gave guidance in 2 ways. One is the annual guidance. And the second one is the quarterly guidance to make sure that you kind of really have a good sense of how we're feeling about the quarter. We talked about what it means for SVB. And again, just to go back, we think the first half is going to be bumpy. We expect that you're going to see venture capital decline in the first half of '22 and then kind of -- or '23, and then stabilize and start to improve. So our expectations are not for a big improvement from where we are right now. And that's just the outlook we think is realistic.

話雖如此，市場仍然非常不穩定。仍然存在著許多不確定性，這就是我們以兩種方式提供指導的原因。一是年度指導。第二個是季度指導，確保您真正了解我們對本季的感受。我們討論了這對 SVB 意味著什麼。再次回顧，我們認為上半年將會很坎坷。我們預計，創投將在 2022 年上半年下滑，然後在 2023 年趨於穩定並開始改善。因此，我們並不期望現狀會大大改善。我們認為這只是現實的觀點。

And could there be some upside? Certainly, there could be some upside, but that's not what we have in our plan. And especially if it gets worse, as we went through. And you can see in the deck, we have ample resources of liquidity and other ways to make sure we're taking care of our clients and still being there for them when they need it. So that's kind of our view.

還會有一些好處嗎？當然，可能會有一些好處，但這不是我們的計劃。尤其是當情況變得更糟時，正如我們所經歷的。您可以在簡報中看到，我們擁有充足的流動資源和其他方式來確保我們照顧好我們的客戶並在他們需要時仍然為他們提供幫助。這就是我們的觀點。

Again, thank you guys for joining. As always, I want to thank our clients. It's one of my favorite parts of what I get to do is spending time with our clients and just hearing their stories about what they're doing is that they're still excited and yes, they're making hard decisions, but they are well positioned. And quite honestly, I think markets like this, in many ways, as much as we like -- we don't like it, we don't enjoy it. It's actually healthy because it allows those companies to run more efficiently, run more effective and position themselves for growth.

再次感謝大家的加入。一如既往，我要感謝我們的客戶。我最喜歡的工作之一就是花時間與客戶相處，聽他們講述他們所做的事情，他們仍然很興奮，是的，他們正在做出艱難的決定，但他們已經準備好了。坦白說，我認為在很多方面，我們都喜歡這樣的市場——但我們不喜歡它，我們並不享受它。這實際上是健康的，因為它可以讓這些公司運作得更有效率，更有效，並為成長做好準備。

And then finally, thanks to all of our employees. I can't thank them enough for what they have been doing to support our clients, what they're doing to support each other. And look, it's a tough market. And so keeping that positive attitude and client-centric mentality is super important. So we appreciate that.

最後，感謝我們所有的員工。我對他們為了支持我們的客戶、為了彼此的支持所做的一切表示衷心的感謝。瞧，這是一個艱難的市場。因此，保持積極的態度和以客戶為中心的心態非常重要。我們對此表示感謝。

So thanks, everybody. Thanks for joining us, and have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝大家。感謝您的加入，祝您有愉快的一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參加。您現在可以斷開連線。