Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to SiriusXM's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Operating and Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Hooper Stevens, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Finance. Mr. Stevens, you may begin.

問候。歡迎參加 SiriusXM 2023 年第四季和全年營運和財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。這次，我將把會議交給投資者關係和財務高級副總裁胡珀史蒂文斯 (Hooper Stevens)。史蒂文斯先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to SiriusXM's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today, we will have prepared remarks from Jennifer Witz, our Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Barry, our Chief Financial Officer. Scott Greenstein, our President and Chief Content Officer, will join Jennifer and Tom to take questions during the Q&A portion of this call.

謝謝大家，大家早安。歡迎參加 SiriusXM 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天，我們將準備我們執行長 Jennifer Witz 的演講；以及我們的財務長湯姆·巴里 (Tom Barry)。我們的總裁兼首席內容官斯科特·格林斯坦（Scott Greenstein）將與詹妮弗和湯姆一起在本次電話會議的問答部分回答問題。

I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during this call might be forward-looking statements as the term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These and all forward-looking statements are based upon management's current beliefs and expectations and necessarily depend upon assumptions, data or methods that may be incorrect or imprecise. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For more information about those risks and uncertainties, please view SiriusXM's SEC filings and today's earnings release. We advise listeners to not rely unduly on forward-looking statements and disclaim any intent or obligation to update them.

我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能是前瞻性陳述，該術語在1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義。和期望，以及必然依賴可能不正確或不精確的假設、數據或方法。此類前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請查看 SiriusXM 向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的財報。我們建議聽眾不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述，並否認任何更新這些陳述的意圖或義務。

As we begin, I'd like to remind our listeners that today's call will include discussions about both actual results and adjusted results. All discussions of adjusted operating results exclude the effects of stock-based compensation.

在我們開始時，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天的電話會議將包括有關實際結果和調整後結果的討論。所有對調整後經營績效的討論均排除了股票薪酬的影響。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Jennifer.

這樣，我就把電話轉給詹妮弗。

Thank you, Hooper, and good morning. It's an exciting time for SiriusXM as we continue the transformation across all aspects of our business, and we appreciate your time today. We'll start by reviewing our strong 2023 results. I'll highlight major strategic achievements, and Tom will present the financial details. Today's call will also focus on SiriusXM's future, emphasizing 3 main goals: enhancing our subscription value, including building on our recently launched next-generation SiriusXM experience, driving growth in our ad business and optimizing our organization's focus and cost structure. All this comes alongside the announced Liberty Media transaction aimed at creating a streamlined and more attractive equity structure.

謝謝你，胡珀，早安。對於 SiriusXM 來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻，我們將繼續在業務的各個方面進行轉型，非常感謝您今天抽出時間。我們先回顧 2023 年的強勁業績。我將重點介紹重大策略成就，湯姆將介紹財務細節。今天的電話會議也將重點放在SiriusXM 的未來，強調3 個主要目標：提高我們的訂閱價值，包括基於我們最近推出的下一代SiriusXM 體驗、推動我們廣告業務的成長以及優化我們組織的重點和成本結構。所有這些都與宣布的 Liberty Media 交易一起進行，該交易旨在創建精簡且更具吸引力的股權結構。

In 2023, SiriusXM exceeded expectations with strong operating and financial performance, including surpassing our adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow target. I'm also pleased to report our self-pay net adds returned to positive growth in both the fourth quarter and the second half overall. This growth resulted from improved streaming and in-car net additions and was bolstered by continued positive responses to a robust content slate led by new artist stations from high-profile talent, including John Mayer, more on that in a bit. We also maintained our incredibly low subscriber churn at 1.6% despite increases in vehicle-related turnover during the year.

2023 年，SiriusXM 憑藉強勁的營運和財務表現超出了預期，包括超過了我們調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流目標。我還很高興地報告，我們的自付費用淨增加在第四季度和下半年總體上恢復了正增長。這一增長源於串流媒體和車載網絡增加的改善，並得益於對由知名藝術家（包括約翰·梅爾（John Mayer））在內的新藝術家電台主導的強勁內容的持續積極反應，這一點稍後會詳細介紹。儘管今年與汽車相關的營業額有所增加，但我們的訂戶流失率仍維持在 1.6% 的極低水準。

Our 2024 guidance anticipates improving year-over-year self-pay net add results but with slightly lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA and steady free cash flow. While early indications are showing signs of positive impact from our business investments, it will take time for these to fully reflect in our subscriber and financial metrics. The challenge to 2024 revenue comes from roughly level subscriber numbers and a modestly softer ARPU, partially from a more diverse subscriber base with more streaming-only subscriptions. This shift, coupled with an ad market that remains uncertain, influences our revenue outlook. Against this revenue backdrop, we're focusing on cost efficiencies even as we invest in content, marketing and our technology platform.

我們的 2024 年指導預計自付淨增加業績將同比有所改善，但收入、調整後 EBITDA 和穩定的自由現金流將略有下降。雖然早期跡象顯示我們的業務投資產生了正面影響，但這些影響需要時間才能充分反映在我們的訂戶和財務指標中。 2024 年營收面臨的挑戰來自大致持平的訂戶數量和適度疲軟的 ARPU，部分原因是訂戶基礎更加多樣化，純串流訂閱數量更多。這種轉變，加上仍不確定的廣告市場，影響了我們的收入前景。在這種收入背景下，我們在投資內容、行銷和技術平台的同時也注重成本效率。

This approach enables us to maintain stable EBITDA margins and cash generation in 2024. I'm confident the investments we continue to make in our business have us on a path to return to sustained long-term subscriber and revenue growth.

這種方法使我們能夠在 2024 年保持穩定的 EBITDA 利潤率和現金產生。

Today, in-car subscribers remain the vast majority of our 34 million subscribers and continue to be essential to our business. This past year, we extended long-term agreements with Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Honda and launched new partnerships with EV manufacturers, Rivian and Polestar to integrate SiriusXM into their vehicles this year. Our biggest priority this year with OEMs is to boost 360L adoption as we see positive trends in conversion, retention and ARPU among self-pay subscribers with 360L vehicles.

如今，車載用戶仍然是我們 3,400 萬用戶中的絕大多數，並且仍然對我們的業務至關重要。去年，我們與梅賽德斯-奔馳、沃爾沃和本田延長了長期協議，並與電動車製造商 Rivian 和 Polestar 建立了新的合作夥伴關係，今年將 SiriusXM 整合到他們的車輛中。今年我們與 OEM 合作的首要任務是提高 360L 的採用率，因為我們看到 360L 車輛的自付費用戶在轉換、保留和 ARPU 方面呈現出積極的趨勢。

SiriusXM's software-forward user experience offers a broader set of IP-delivered content, including more music channels, personalized artist stations, live sports features and more, making our in-vehicle recommendations critical to enhancing subscription value and standardization of personalization and content discovery features across 360L vehicles will accelerate with growing adoption of the Android Automotive operating system. Most importantly, 2023 was a year of building and our strategy initiated over a year ago to launch a next-generation platform driving future growth remains firmly on course. Many of you joined our media event in November, where we discussed the benefits of the new platform. And while we're still very much at the early stages of this journey, our new SiriusXM app, which launched on December 14 is yielding promising signs of improved engagement.

SiriusXM 的軟體前沿用戶體驗提供了更廣泛的IP 交付內容，包括更多音樂頻道、個人化藝術家電台、現場體育功能等，這使得我們的車載推薦對於提高訂閱價值以及個性化和內容髮現功能的標準化至關重要隨著 Android Automotive 作業系統的日益普及，360L 車輛的應用將會加速。最重要的是，2023 年是建設的一年，我們一年多前啟動的推出下一代平台推動未來成長的策略仍然堅定不移。你們中的許多人參加了我們 11 月的媒體活動，我們在會議上討論了新平台的優勢。雖然我們仍處於這段旅程的早期階段，但我們在 12 月 14 日推出的新 SiriusXM 應用程式正在產生積極改善參與的跡象。

With most of our existing mobile users now transitioned to the new app, we're seeing the recommendation engine performing well and exposing listeners to a greater breadth of content, a key driver of improved discovery enabled by the new personalization features. We're also already seeing significantly better quality of service metrics, including a reduction in our time to live latency by nearly 90%, which is core to our unmatched sports play-by-play offering. We're actively listening to customer feedback and with the new infrastructure in place, we've already released a series of app and web player updates and have plans for rapid and continuous improvements in the weeks and months ahead.

隨著我們大多數現有的行動用戶現已過渡到新應用程序，我們看到推薦引擎表現良好，並向聽眾展示了更廣泛的內容，這是新的個人化功能實現改進發現的關鍵驅動力。我們也看到服務品質指標顯著提高，包括將直播延遲時間縮短了近 90%，這是我們無與倫比的體育賽事直播服務的核心。我們正在積極聽取客戶的回饋，隨著新基礎設施的到位，我們已經發布了一系列應用程式和網路播放器更新，並計劃在未來幾週和幾個月內快速持續改進。

We also introduced our new SiriusXM brand last quarter, reflecting a more modern look and feel. The all new logo embraces our root that's home to the star and brought back our beloved dog Mascot Stella, who shows up as an icon for content discovery in the new app. Again, it's early days, but we're already seeing a positive lift in brand perception among the growth audience segments we're looking to attract. Our new brand marketing strategy leans into Fandom to showcase our differentiated offering across music, sports, talk and podcasts that bring fans closer to what they love.

上季我們也推出了新的 SiriusXM 品牌，體現出更現代的外觀和感覺。全新標誌擁抱了我們的根源，即明星的故鄉，並帶回了我們心愛的狗吉祥物斯特拉，它在新應用程式中作為內容發現的圖標出現。再說一次，現在還處於早期階段，但我們已經看到我們希望吸引的成長受眾群體的品牌認知度有了積極提升。我們的新品牌行銷策略傾向於 Fandom，展示我們在音樂、運動、對話和播客方面的差異化產品，讓粉絲更接近他們喜愛的內容。

In the fourth quarter, we expanded our unique content portfolio with the launch of exclusive new artist channels with John Mayer and Kelly Clarkson, who love the direct connection they get to their fans, along with fresh new genre channels, tailored to capture the interest of younger audiences. The channels are all performing well and showing strong listening, especially with streaming trialers.

在第四季度，我們擴大了我們獨特的內容組合，與約翰·梅爾和凱莉·克拉克森一起推出了獨家的新藝術家頻道，他們喜歡與粉絲建立直接聯繫，同時還推出了專為吸引粉絲興趣而客製化的全新流派頻道。這些頻道都表現良好，收聽率很高，尤其是串流媒體試用者。

In life with John Mayer, the talented guitarist and songwriter experiments with new programming formats defining his channel, not by genre, but by the time of day as well as the day of the week. The channel has quickly become a hit and one of our most listen-to-artist branded channels. We also introduced another podcast from the legendary LeVar Burton, his new children show, Sound Detectives. The podcast, which recently wrapped is distributed broadly as part of our SiriusXM podcast network and quickly soared to the top of the chart, ranking #1 in Kids & Family on Apple podcast.

在與約翰·梅爾(John Mayer) 的生活中，這位才華橫溢的吉他手和詞曲作者嘗試了新的節目格式來定義他的頻道，不是按流派，而是按一天中的時間以及一周中的某一天來定義他的頻道。該頻道很快就成為熱門節目，也是我們最受聽眾喜愛的藝術家品牌頻道之一。我們還介紹了傳奇人物 LeVar Burton 的另一個播客，他的新兒童節目《聲音偵探》。該播客最近完成製作，作為 SiriusXM 播客網絡的一部分廣泛傳播，並迅速飆升至排行榜榜首，在 Apple 播客的“兒童與家庭”中排名第一。

As we continue to build out our portfolio of content on air and through podcasts from leading host, we're also very excited about today's launch of our new show with James Corden, This Life of Mine. This brings the iconic host into audio for the first time with his new interview series airing exclusively on SiriusXM. New episodes will be released weekly with a guest lineup, including Martin Scorsese, Kim Kardashian, David Beckham and more.

隨著我們繼續透過領先主持人的播客來建立我們的內容組合，我們也對今天與詹姆斯柯登合作的新節目《我的一生》的推出感到非常興奮。這位標誌性主持人首次進入音訊領域，他的新訪談系列在 SiriusXM 上獨家播出。新劇集每週都會發布，嘉賓陣容包括馬丁·斯科塞斯、金·卡戴珊、大衛·貝克漢等。

Earlier this week, we announced a new multiyear agreement with SmartLess Media and its founders, Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes that brings their hugely successful podcast, SmartLess to SiriusXM. It's a comprehensive deal that strengthens our industry-leading position in podcasting by giving us the most top-ranked podcasts of any player in the space. It also enhances our SiriusXM subscription business with a wide array of benefits only available to our subscribers from windowing new episodes to events, to making portions of the library exclusive and it strengthens our advertising business given the scale of SmartLess, which will be exclusively represented by our advertising sales group, SiriusXM Media.

本週早些時候，我們宣布與 SmartLess Media 及其創始人 Will Arnett、Jason Bateman 和 Sean Hayes 達成一項新的多年協議，將他們非常成功的播客 SmartLess 帶到 SiriusXM。這是一項全面的交易，透過為我們提供該領域排名最高的播客，鞏固了我們在播客領域的行業領先地位。它還增強了我們的SiriusXM 訂閱業務，提供了一系列只有我們的訂閱者才能獲得的好處，從新劇集到事件的窗口，到使圖書館的部分內容成為獨家，並考慮到SmartLess 的規模，它也增強了我們的廣告業務，SmartLess 將由SmartLess 獨家代理。

Speaking of our advertising business, total ad revenue remained relatively flat with fourth quarter and full year down less than 1%. Podcasting and programmatic continue to be strong growth drivers throughout the year. These positive results, despite challenges faced by the ad industry throughout the year, highlight the value we offer with our flexible network approach, which ensures brands connect with their target audiences regardless of the platform. This year, we will focus on expanding advertising services and investing in capabilities with many powered by generative AI to enhance monetization and efficiency for marketers. In short, we're confident that our strategy in the advertising business is the right one.

說到我們的廣告業務，廣告總收入保持相對平穩，第四季和全年下降不到 1%。播客和程序化仍然是全年強勁的成長動力。儘管廣告業全年面臨挑戰，但這些積極的成果凸顯了我們透過靈活的網路方法所提供的價值，確保品牌無論在何種平台上都能與目標受眾建立聯繫。今年，我們將專注於擴大廣告服務，並投資許多由生成式人工智慧驅動的功能，以提高行銷人員的獲利能力和效率。簡而言之，我們相信我們的廣告業務策略是正確的。

As we progress on this transformative journey, we will utilize cutting-edge technologies to ensure listeners benefit from an increasingly seamless and personalized connection to our unique content, however, whenever and wherever they want. And as we expand efforts to reach new listeners, drive trials and improve our already strong retention by enhancing our value proposition, we look forward to the upcoming rollout of our content sharing collaboration with Audible later this quarter. This collaboration will bring select Audible content into SiriusXM and highlight SiriusXM programming on the audio storytelling platform.

隨著我們在這一變革之旅中取得進展，我們將利用尖端技術來確保聽眾無論何時何地都可以從與我們獨特內容的日益無縫和個性化的連接中受益。隨著我們加強接觸新聽眾、推動試驗並透過增強我們的價值主張來提高我們已經很強大的保留率，我們期待在本季度晚些時候推出與 Audible 的內容共享合作。此次合作將把精選的 Audible 內容引入 SiriusXM，並突出音訊說故事平台上的 SiriusXM 編程。

In a largely commoditized streaming music market, where consumers are confined to algorithmically driven or self-selected playlists, we're deliberately investing in human-curated and live audio experiences featuring high-profile and up and coming talent. Our strategy aims to attract and retain listeners seeking community and connection by providing them with unique opportunities to get closer to the artists, posts and content they love.

在很大程度上商品化的串流音樂市場中，消費者僅限於演算法驅動或自行選擇的播放列表，因此我們有意投資於以知名和嶄露頭角的人才為特色的人工策劃和現場音訊體驗。我們的策略旨在透過為尋求社群和聯繫的聽眾提供獨特的機會來接近他們喜愛的藝術家、貼文和內容，從而吸引並留住他們。

In closing, I'm pleased with our durable financial performance in 2023, and we're confident we will deliver improved year-over-year subscriber results in 2024 and maintain strong cost discipline during this transformative phase as we work to drive long-term growth and stockholder value.

最後，我對我們 2023 年持久的財務表現感到滿意，我們有信心在 2024 年實現同比用戶業績的改善，並在這個變革階段保持嚴格的成本控制，因為我們致力於推動長期發展成長和股東價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Tom.

有了這個，我會把它交給湯姆。

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. As Jennifer highlighted, we closed the year on a positive trajectory, achieving robust financial and subscriber results that either met or exceeded our goals. Importantly, in 2023, we strengthened our path to future growth with the successful launch of our new app, began the process to streamline our equity structure through the proposed Liberty transaction and executed on meaningful strategic cost initiatives.

謝謝你，詹妮弗，大家早安。正如珍妮佛所強調的那樣，我們以積極的軌跡結束了這一年，實現了強勁的財務和用戶業績，達到或超過了我們的目標。重要的是，2023 年，我們成功推出了新應用程序，加強了未來成長的道路，透過擬議的 Liberty 交易開始簡化我們的股權結構，並執行了有意義的策略成本計劃。

In 2023, revenue was steady at $8.95 billion, consistent with our guidance of approximately $9 billion. Total subscription revenue and advertising revenue remained nearly flat for the full year at $6.9 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively. Full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow were $2.79 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. This means we outperformed our original guidance for adjusted EBITDA by nearly $100 million and outperformed our original guidance for free cash flow by about $150 million.

2023 年，營收穩定在 89.5 億美元，與我們約 90 億美元的指引一致。全年總訂閱收入和廣告收入幾乎持平，分別為 69 億美元和 18 億美元。 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流分別為 27.9 億美元和 12 億美元。這意味著我們的調整後 EBITDA 超出了最初的指導近 1 億美元，自由現金流的最初指引超出了約 1.5 億美元。

In fourth quarter, revenue was largely unchanged at $2.29 billion, with subscription and advertising revenue at $1.7 billion and $479 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA saw a 4% decline to $715 million. The decrease can be attributed to a rise in revenue share and royalty expenses, sales and marketing and engineering, design and development expenses offset by lower customer service and billing, G&A and transmission costs.

第四季的營收基本上保持不變，為 22.9 億美元，訂閱和廣告收入分別為 17 億美元和 4.79 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 下降 4%，至 7.15 億美元。下降的原因是收入分成和特許權使用費、銷售和行銷以及工程、設計和開發費用的增加，但被客戶服務和計費、一般管理費用和傳輸成本的降低所抵消。

Net income for the quarter was $352 million or $0.09 per diluted share. Free cash flow continues to be back weighted during the year coming in at $445 million in the quarter.

本季淨利為 3.52 億美元，或攤薄後每股收益 0.09 美元。全年自由現金流繼續反向加權，本季達到 4.45 億美元。

Turning to the segments. In the SiriusXM segment, we delivered $1.7 billion in revenue, down less than 1% year-over-year. SiriusXM's advertising revenue remained challenged, which we believe is a product of the tough broadcast advertising market. ARPU during the fourth quarter and full year 2023 was $15.63 and $15.56, respectively. It benefited from the March 2023 price increase on select full price plans, but this is offset by the effect of promotional self-pay subscription plans, the lower advertising revenue mentioned and lower paid promotional rates from certain OEMs.

轉向細分市場。在 SiriusXM 領域，我們實現了 17 億美元的收入，比去年同期下降不到 1%。 SiriusXM 的廣告收入仍然面臨挑戰，我們認為這是艱難的廣播廣告市場的產物。 2023 年第四季和全年的 ARPU 分別為 15.63 美元和 15.56 美元。它受益於 2023 年 3 月部分全價計劃的價格上漲，但這被促銷自付費訂閱計劃的影響、提到的較低廣告收入和某些 OEM 的較低付費促銷費率所抵消。

Gross profit in the SiriusXM segment for the fourth quarter decreased 2% to $1.04 billion compared to the $1.06 billion recorded in last year's fourth quarter, representing a margin of 61% down only 1 point as we absorbed roughly $20 million in higher music royalties. For the full year, gross profit was $4.15 billion, also at a 61% margin.

與去年第四季的10.6 億美元相比，SiriusXM 業務第四季的毛利下降了2%，至10.4 億美元，利潤率為61%，僅下降了1 個百分點，因為我們吸收了約2,000 萬美元的更高音樂版稅。全年毛利為 41.5 億美元，利潤率也為 61%。

In the Pandora and off-platform segment, total revenue was $571 million and $2.1 billion for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively, an increase of 2% and 1%. Advertising revenue in the segment of $436 million increased 4% sequentially and 1% year-over-year, driven by continued strong growth in our podcasting and programmatic ad sales. Podcasting revenue saw a 22% year-over-year lift in the quarter, while programmatic podcast revenue increased 12% sequentially and 97% year-over-year. Gross profit in the Pandora and off-platform segment of $193 million for the fourth quarter represent a margin of 34%, up from 32% in prior year fourth quarter. Full year gross profit in this segment was $638 million, a margin of 30%.

在Pandora和平台外業務領域，第四季和全年總收入分別為5.71億美元和21億美元，分別成長2%和1%。在我們的播客和程序化廣告銷售持續強勁增長的推動下，該部門的廣告收入為 4.36 億美元，環比增長 4%，同比增長 1%。本季播客營收年增 22%，而程式化播客營收則較上季成長 12%，較去年同期成長 97%。第四季 Pandora 和平台外業務的毛利為 1.93 億美元，利潤率為 34%，高於去年第四季的 32%。該部門全年毛利為 6.38 億美元，利潤率為 30%。

We returned approximately $102 million to stockholders in the fourth quarter through our regular quarterly dividend, which was increased by 10%. Full year capital returns totaled $657 million, including dividends and share repurchases. We ended the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.2x. We had $216 million of cash and equivalents in our entire $1.75 billion revolver was undrawn and available at year-end. And last week, we closed our new $1.1 billion Term Loan A delayed draw facility that will replace the 364-day bridge loan commitment. We intend to draw that facility as part of the closing of the Liberty transaction.

第四季度，我們透過定期季度股息向股東返還約 1.02 億美元，增幅為 10%。全年資本回報總額為 6.57 億美元，其中包括股息和股票回購。年底，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 3.2 倍。我們的 17.5 億美元左輪手槍中有 2.16 億美元的現金和等價物在年底尚未提取並可用。上週，我們完成了新的 11 億美元定期貸款延遲提款安排，該安排將取代 364 天的過橋貸款承諾。我們打算將這項融資作為完成 Liberty 交易的一部分。

Additionally, as an update on the Liberty transaction, Liberty Media filed their Form S-4 on Monday, and we still expect the transaction to close early in the third quarter. At the end of the third quarter, per SEC rules, we suspended our share repurchase plan in response to Liberty's proposed offer. While the transaction is pending, we anticipate remaining out of the market. As we look forward beyond the Liberty transaction, we will continue to target leverage in the low to mid-3x range, and we anticipate being back in this zone during the second half of 2025. While we will primarily focus on deleveraging, we will continue our dividend policy and have the flexibility to be opportunistic on share repurchases.

此外，作為 Liberty 交易的最新情況，Liberty Media 於週一提交了 S-4 表格，我們仍然預計該交易將在第三季初完成。在第三季末，根據 SEC 的規定，我們暫停了股票回購計劃，以回應 Liberty 提出的要約。雖然交易仍在進行中，但我們預計仍將退出市場。當我們展望Liberty 交易之後，我們將繼續將槓桿率目標定在3 倍低至中的範圍內，我們預計在2025 年下半年回到這一區域。延續我們的股利政策，並具有靈活地機會主義股票回購。

In addition, we continue to focus on further strategic cost-saving efforts this year. In 2023, we attained approximately $140 million of cost savings through the org structure optimization, continued consolidation of our real estate footprint and broad operational efficiencies. In 2024, we're targeting nearly $200 million of additional cost savings with more efficient allocation of resources in marketing and programming along with more efficient approach to customer service.

此外，我們今年也持續專注於進一步的策略成本節約工作。 2023 年，我們透過組織結構優化、持續整合我們的房地產業務以及廣泛的營運效率，節省了約 1.4 億美元的成本。到 2024 年，我們的目標是透過更有效地分配行銷和節目資源以及更有效的客戶服務方法，額外節省近 2 億美元的成本。

This year, we're stepping up on socially responsible tax equity investments in the cleaner energy technologies, including industrial carbon capture and storage. These investments will produce tax credits and related tax losses. Over the next 7 years, we currently expect to generate more than $250 million in net after-tax cash benefit with the bulk of these benefits coming in the latter portion of the contract. The payment of these equity investments will be classified as investing activities from a cash flow perspective, while the tax credit and losses will benefit our federal cash taxes and operating activities, increasing our free cash flow available to reinvest in our business and return capital to the stockholders. These agreements contain customary termination provisions should tax laws change or the projects not perform as expected. And as previously discussed, we will see continued free cash flow tailwind as both satellite and nonsatellite capital expenditures declined significantly in the years ahead.

今年，我們將增加對清潔能源技術（包括工業碳捕獲和儲存）的社會責任稅收股權投資。這些投資將產生稅收抵免和相關稅收損失。在未來 7 年中，我們目前預計將產生超過 2.5 億美元的淨稅後現金收益，其中大部分收益將來自合約的後半部分。從現金流的角度來看，這些股權投資的支付將被歸類為投資活動，而稅收抵免和損失將有利於我們的聯邦現金稅和經營活動，增加我們可用於再投資於我們的業務並將資本回饋給我們的自由現金流。這些協議包含在稅法發生變化或項目未按預期執行時的慣例終止條款。如同先前所討論的，隨著衛星和非衛星資本支出在未來幾年大幅下降，我們將看到自由現金流持續順風。

Finally, earlier today, we released our 2024 guidance, projecting revenue of approximately $8.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.7 billion and free cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion excluding the cost and incremental interest expenses arising from our pending transaction with Liberty Media. We anticipate providing an update to our free cash flow guidance upon closing. As Jennifer mentioned in regards to self-pay net adds, we expect to see an improvement in our performance versus 2023.

最後，今天早些時候，我們發布了2024 年指引，預計收入約為87.5 億美元，調整後EBITDA 約為27 億美元，自由現金流約為12 億美元，不包括我們與Liberty Media 待決交易產生的成本和增量利息費用。我們預計在交易結束後更新我們的自由現金流指引。正如 Jennifer 在談到自付費淨增加時提到的那樣，我們預計我們的表現將比 2023 年有所改善。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question this morning is from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們今天早上的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡梅倫·曼森-佩羅內。

First one is for Tom. You mentioned the $140 million of cost optimization that you were able to achieve this year. And then the $200 million you're targeting in '24. So I guess -- I was just wondering if you could unpack that $200 million number a bit. You called out, I think, marketing, programming and customer service in the release, but just kind of across those buckets, where do you see the most opportunity to limit expense growth this year and realize those savings?

第一個是給湯姆的。您提到今年您實現了 1.4 億美元的成本優化。然後是您在 24 年設定的 2 億美元目標。所以我想——我只是想知道你是否可以稍微解釋一下這個 2 億美元的數字。我認為，您在發布中提到了行銷、程式設計和客戶服務，但在這些方面，您認為今年限制費用成長並實現這些節省的最佳機會在哪裡？

And then one more, if I can, for either Scott or Jennifer, but big new agreements signed for SmartLess. Jennifer, you mentioned some of the benefits from that deal in terms of strengthening that business and then supporting -- using some of the content to support subscription strength. But just generally, what is a big deal like this kind of indicate in terms of how the podcasting business is performing for you? And then how do you plan to leverage that content outside of what you mentioned, if any other areas? And how do you think about the podcast opportunity, just overall would be really helpful?

然後，如果可以的話，為斯科特或珍妮佛再簽署一份為 SmartLess 簽署的重大新協議。詹妮弗，您提到了該交易在加強業務和支持方面的一些好處——使用一些內容來支持訂閱強度。但一般來說，就播客業務的表現而言，這樣的大事有什麼意義呢？然後，您計劃如何在您提到的內容之外（如果有其他領域）利用這些內容？您如何看待播客機會，整體而言會很有幫助嗎？

Okay. Great. Thanks, Cameron, for the question. So unpacking the $200 million in 2024, there's a lot of moving pieces, as you can imagine. But as I summarized, it's programming, it's marketing and there's customer service. But I'd say a couple of extra things. When you look at marketing, for example, marketing is up slightly year-over-year, but I would say we're investing a lot more in the streaming side. And so we've optimized our marketing costs. So the savings of the $200 million is being reinvested as we approach more targeted and more performance-oriented marketing on the streaming side. So a lot of it is add back from that standpoint.

好的。偉大的。謝謝卡梅倫提出的問題。因此，在 2024 年解開 2 億美元的資金時，你可以想像到，有很多變動的部分。但正如我總結的那樣，它是程式設計、行銷和客戶服務。但我想說一些額外的事情。例如，當你看行銷時，行銷同比略有上升，但我想說我們在串流媒體方面投入了更多。因此，我們優化了行銷成本。因此，隨著我們在串流媒體方面進行更有針對性、更注重效果的行銷，節省的 2 億美元將重新投資。所以很多內容都是從這個角度加回來的。

And I would say the second point on it is, as we work on building out our tech stack in 2024, there will be impact on various parts of the business, whether it's customer service or whether it's programming. So we have a lot of moving parts that are going into it. So the savings are actually spread throughout the business. But it's also -- there is overall net savings as part of it. But when you look at the number, a lot of it is going to be offsetting various costs that we're incurring as we transition our platform and move to more of a streaming approach in 2024.

我想說的第二點是，當我們致力於在 2024 年建立我們的技術堆疊時，這將對業務的各個部分產生影響，無論是客戶服務還是程式設計。所以我們有很多活動部件正在其中。因此，節省的成本實際上分佈在整個企業中。但整體淨節省也是其中的一部分。但當你看一下這個數字時，你會發現其中很大一部分將抵消我們在 2024 年過渡平台並轉向更多串流媒體方法時所產生的各種成本。

Yes. And I'll start on SmartLess and then hand it to Scott just to add in, but we're really thrilled to be working with Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes on this. I mean they've put together a phenomenal podcast network, including their really significant podcasts. And it really just benefits all parts of our business. And I think we were able to come to a great place with them where we're broadening their exposure, bringing some content to SiriusXM subscribers specifically, but also just adding to our overall podcast network and positioning us really strongly in terms of representing from an ad standpoint, a lot of major podcast content in the industry.

是的。我將從 SmartLess 開始，然後將其交給 Scott 來補充，但我們非常高興能與 Will Arnett、Jason Bateman 和 Sean Hayes 在此方面合作。我的意思是他們已經建立了一個非凡的播客網絡，包括他們真正重要的播客。這確實有利於我們業務的各個部分。我認為我們能夠與他們一起達到一個偉大的目標，我們擴大了他們的曝光度，專門為SiriusXM 訂閱者帶來了一些內容，同時也只是增加了我們的整體播客網絡，並使我們在代表播客方面處於非常有利的地位。

Scott, do you want to comment more specifically?

史考特，你想發表更具體的評論嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Jennifer. So a couple of things. One is the podcast thing and industry is really still in the second or third inning, so it's evolving. But it's starting to shake out in a reminiscent way of terrestrial radio and some other things. The top 10 in podcasting largely has stayed the same for a while. And by all the charts, we have 3 of the top 10, some 4 of the top 10. We're averaging about 175 million monthly downloads in that network. So the goal always was 2 things to create the ultimate sort of suite of assets that we could fine-tune and calibrate between what would be best for a curated subscriber pay model and to continue to build the most robust podcast network of an audience that filtered and funneled our ad sales model. And I think we're getting close to that point. So that's one thing.

當然。謝謝，珍妮佛。有幾件事。其中之一是播客，這個行業實際上還處於第二或第三局，所以它正在不斷發展。但它開始以一種讓人想起地面廣播和其他一些東西的方式出現。播客領域的前十名在一段時間內基本上保持不變。從所有圖表來看，前 10 名中有 3 個，前 10 名中有 4 個。因此，我們的目標始終是兩件事：創建最終的資產套件，我們可以在最適合策劃的訂戶付費模式之間進行微調和校準，並繼續為過濾後的受眾建立最強大的播客網絡並整合了我們的廣告銷售模式。我認為我們已經接近這一點了。所以這是一回事。

Secondly, as everybody knows, our content differs than most other -- certainly, audio services generates enormous, enormous amounts of earned media. And we're starting to see podcast now do that as well. So when you combine what we're doing on the Sirius side and the podcast side, we're now feeding the cost of the cost, but they're feeding a huge amount of free earned media, so we like that. In addition, the new talent that is going to distinguish itself in audio is going to come out of podcasting. And generally, when you're the leader, young podcasters want to be at that network. It's no different than anything else. And we feel really good that we're going to be an attractive platform for that.

其次，眾所周知，我們的內容與大多數其他內容不同——當然，音訊服務產生了大量的免費媒體。我們現在也開始看到播客也這麼做了。因此，當你將我們在 Sirius 方面和播客方面所做的事情結合起來時，我們現在正在承擔成本費用，但他們正在提供大量免費賺取的媒體，所以我們喜歡這樣。此外，在音訊領域脫穎而出的新人才將來自播客。一般來說，當你是領導者時，年輕的播客希望加入該網絡。這與其他任何事情都沒有什麼不同。我們感覺非常好，因為我們將成為一個有吸引力的平台。

And as you can tell with SmartLess, we announced about doing our Crime Junkie and audio channels on Sirius, we're going to start to use assets, as I said, to calibrate what might make sense on both sides of the paywall. And adding SmartLess, along with Conan O'Brien, Crime Junkie, Crooked, Dateline and others, we just feel really good about the position we're in with this. So we look forward to more, but we feel we're perfectly positioned right now.

正如您透過 SmartLess 所了解的那樣，我們宣布將在 Sirius 上製作 Crime Junkie 和音訊頻道，正如我所說，我們將開始使用資產來校準付費牆兩側可能有意義的內容。加上 SmartLess、Conan O'Brien、Crime Junkie、Crooked、Dateline 等，我們對自己在這方面的處境感到非常滿意。所以我們期待更多，但我們覺得我們現在處於完美的位置。

Our next question comes from the line of Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Jayant。

Two, if I could. I just want to think about pricing for the satellite product in '24. Typically, you have a $1 a month rate increase every also a year. Given all this transition, is this year we should expect sort of a rate increase there? And in your implicit guide, obviously, I'm assuming the streaming product is going to grow. So it sort of implies that -- does it imply that the satellite paid subscriber base is going to decline in '24? And if that's the case, then the impact on ARPU, given the streaming product is priced lower than your average ARPU. Is there some sort of offset to that on pricing?

兩個，如果可以的話。我只想考慮 24 年衛星產品的定價。通常情況下，您每月的費率每年都會增加 1 美元。考慮到所有這些轉變，今年我們是否應該預期利率會上漲？顯然，在您的隱含指南中，我假設串流媒體產品將會成長。所以這有點暗示——這是否意味著衛星付費用戶群將在 24 世紀下降？如果是這樣的話，那麼考慮到串流媒體產品的定價低於平均 ARPU，就會對 ARPU 產生影響。定價方面是否有某種抵銷？

Yes, I'll let Tom comment on ARPU in a second. But just as it relates to pricing and the rate increase, we've done, Vijay -- our last 2 rate increases were pretty close together. We did one in late 2021 and another one in early 2023. So we have had a history of approximately every other year, and we're anticipating another rate increase next year. So this would be a year without a rate increase on our full price packages, and that plays into our revenue guide.

是的，我稍後會讓 Tom 評論一下 ARPU。但正如它與定價和加息有關一樣，維傑，我們已經做到了——我們最近兩次加息的時間非常接近。我們在 2021 年底進行了一次，在 2023 年初進行了另一次。因此，今年我們的全價套餐不會調高利率，這也會影響我們的收入指南。

We're really excited about the $9.99 price point on our streaming-only plan and believes that enables us to really address a broader market. We've talked a lot about the growth audiences and positioning ourselves as complementary to a music streaming service because of the nature of our content and how differentiated it is. And it's really early days. Obviously, since the launch, we're only about 7 weeks in, but we're very excited about what the streaming product in the market -- in the product market fit. It provides these growth audiences, can provide from a tailwind standpoint to overall revenue growth.

我們對純串流媒體套餐的 9.99 美元價格感到非常興奮，並相信這使我們能夠真正應對更廣泛的市場。我們已經談論了很多關於觀眾成長的問題，並將自己定位為音樂串流服務的補充，因為我們內容的性質及其差異化。現在還為時過早。顯然，自推出以來，我們只花了大約 7 週的時間，但我們對市場上的串流媒體產品 - 產品市場的契合度感到非常興奮。它提供了這些成長的受眾，可以從順風的角度提供整體收入成長。

And we believe that there's limited risk of cannibalization, for instance, between the in-car base and our streaming growth because they're very different products. And yes, you talked a little bit about the impact of growth in streaming and ARPU overall, but we believe we're well positioned as we continue to add more value to our in-car packages to execute on rate increases going forward, but also drive volume across both in car and streaming basis in the future.

我們認為，例如，車載基礎和我們的串流媒體成長之間的蠶食風險有限，因為它們是非常不同的產品。是的，您談到了串流媒體和 ARPU 整體成長的影響，但我們相信我們處於有利位置，因為我們將繼續為我們的車載套餐增加更多價值，以執行未來的費率上漲，但也將推動汽車和串流媒體領域的銷售。

Do you want to comment on ARPU, otherwise?

你想對 ARPU 發表評論嗎？

Yes. Other than that -- I would just add, Vijay, that I think we look at it as in approaching a growth approach to our subscriber base. We felt a more affordable and competitive streaming plan at $9.99 will be attractive to the younger, more urban audience. And so by expanding the demand and expanding our TAM, we believe it really won't cannibalize, but we look at it as additive to our overall subscriber base.

是的。除此之外，Vijay，我想補充一點，我認為我們將其視為對我們的用戶群進行成長的方法。我們認為 9.99 美元的更實惠、更具競爭力的串流媒體套餐將對更年輕、更城市的觀眾有吸引力。因此，透過擴大需求和擴大我們的 TAM，我們相信它確實不會蠶食，但我們將其視為對我們整體用戶群的補充。

Our next question comes from the line of Barton Crockett with Rosenblatt.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barton Crockett 和 Rosenblatt 的對話。

Okay. Great. I guess a couple, really kind of thinking about the sub trends and the ARPU kind of dynamics here, drilling into that a bit. So you have an expectation that you'll be growing your self-pay adds over the course of the year. But I also noted in your earnings release, you're talking about a decline in the free trial base at the end of the year in 2023. So I'm just wondering if there's any kind of quarterly cadence we should think about maybe if there is some pressure on self-pay near term reflecting the free trial that maybe turns around as we go through the course of the year that you can talk to?

好的。偉大的。我想有一些人確實在思考子趨勢和 ARPU 類型的動態，並對此進行了深入研究。因此，您預計在這一年中您的自付費用將會增加。但我也在你們的財報中指出，你們談論的是 2023 年年底免費試用基數的下降。免費試用可能會在我們經歷這一年的過程中出現逆轉，您可以與我們交談？

And then in terms of ARPU, one of the things that I thought you guys were thinking about with your approach to grow the growth demos was not just the $9.99 streaming offer, but also maybe some pricing changes on the satellite radio packaging and maybe some lower price opportunity there. I was wondering if you could talk to that if that's still part of the plan or any update on how you're thinking?

然後就ARPU 而言，我認為你們在發展成長演示的方法中考慮的事情之一不僅僅是9.99 美元的串流報價，而且可能還有衛星廣播包裝的一些定價變化，也許還有一些更低的定價。我想知道您是否可以談談這是否仍然是計劃的一部分或您的想法有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. So thanks for the questions, Barton. I -- on the self-pay net adds for 2024, we haven't provided a specific number and guidance, as you know. But our plan is to improve net adds year-over-year. We certainly hope that puts us in a position to have positive net adds, but it's really too early in the year to provide any more specificity about that. But as you highlighted, obviously, one of the big factors in driving self-pay net adds is the trial funnel. We had this dynamic last year as well where fourth quarter trial starts were a little lower than third quarter, and that will put some pressure on first quarter conversions. I think as you look at seasonality for self-pay net adds this year, it will look pretty similar to last year where we would expect probably some declines in the early part of the year, but positive adds in the latter part of the year. So similar seasonality, similar trajectory.

是的。謝謝你的提問，巴頓。如您所知，關於 2024 年的自費網絡補充，我們尚未提供具體的數字和指導。但我們的計劃是逐年提高淨增量。我們當然希望這能讓我們能夠實現積極的淨成長，但現在就提供更多細節還為時過早。但正如您所強調的，顯然，推動自付費淨增加的重要因素之一是試用管道。去年我們也經歷了這種動態，第四季的試用開始率略低於第三季度，這會對第一季的轉換帶來一些壓力。我認為，當你觀察今年自付費用淨增加的季節性時，它看起來與去年非常相似，我們預計今年年初可能會出現一些下降，但今年下半年會出現積極的增加。如此相似的季節性，相似的軌跡。

Last year, we delivered on our goal and commitment to have better self-pay net adds sequentially each quarter over the course of the year, and we would look to do that this year as well. We did address that in the fourth quarter, we saw the 130,000 self-pay net adds. We're very pleased with that result, and that we have contributing factors of improvements in both streaming and in-car net adds and we'd expect that to also be the case for 2024.

去年，我們實現了我們的目標和承諾，在一年中每個季度連續獲得更好的自付費用淨增加，我們今年也希望做到這一點。我們確實在第四季度解決了這個問題，我們看到自付費用淨增加了 13 萬人。我們對此結果感到非常滿意，並且我們在串流媒體和車載網路添加方面都有改進的貢獻因素，我們預計 2024 年也會如此。

So on your question about satellite or in-car pricing and packaging, we're in the market testing some different packages. And you're right, we're looking at expanding the price points and packages we offer on the in-car side of our business. We do believe there is room to capture more demand there as well among the growth audiences. It may be that many of those potential listeners launch a streaming-only package, but we're going to have more technology in place to be able to move customers more seamlessly between the embedded in-car experience and our streaming experience.

因此，關於您有關衛星或車載定價和包裝的問題，我們正在市場上測試一些不同的包裝。你是對的，我們正在考慮擴大我們在車內業務方面提供的價格點和套餐。我們確實相信，在成長的受眾群體中，還有吸引更多需求的空間。許多潛在聽眾可能會推出純串流媒體套餐，但我們將擁有更多技術，以便能夠在嵌入式車內體驗和串流媒體體驗之間更無縫地為客戶提供服務。

Today, most of our streaming-only subscribers are listening outside of the car predominantly. And so there's, again, an opportunity, I think, to lean into that to build growth, but also make it easier for customers to move. Obviously, they can listen on the app in the car as well. But there's enhanced benefits to the embedded experience in the car. So we'll have more to say on pricing and packaging for the in-car base over the course of the year. A lot of that comes with the migration to the new tech stack for in-car, which will start later in the second quarter, and we'll proceed through the different elements of that tech stack throughout the year, but I'm really excited about the flexibility it will give us in pricing and packaging. Some of the things Tom mentioned about how we'll support customers and customer service, better identity and better MarTech overall.

如今，我們的大多數純串流媒體訂閱者主要在車外收聽。因此，我認為，這又是一個機會，可以依靠這一點來實現成長，同時也讓客戶更容易移動。顯然，他們也可以在車內的應用程式上收聽。但汽車中的嵌入式體驗具有更大的優勢。因此，我們將在今年對車載底座的定價和包裝進行更多討論。其中許多都伴隨著向車載新技術堆疊的遷移，這將在第二季度晚些時候開始，我們將全年繼續研究該技術堆疊的不同元素，但我真的很興奮關於它將在定價和包裝方面帶給我們的彈性。湯姆提到了我們將如何支援客戶和客戶服務、更好的身份和更好的行銷技術。

Our next question is from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的史蒂文·卡霍爾。

So Jennifer, I think a lot of the investments you made in 2023 were about trying to improve future conversion rates and especially with younger car buyers. Could you help us on maybe what you started to see either late in 2023 or what you're expecting in 2024 in terms of those proof points around conversion with the updated app experience?

所以，詹妮弗，我認為您在 2023 年所做的許多投資都是為了提高未來的轉換率，尤其是針對年輕的購車者。您能否幫助我們了解您在 2023 年底開始看到的情況，或者您對 2024 年的期望，即透過更新的應用程式體驗實現轉換的證據點？

And then to follow on Vijay's question, just around mix shift as you're ramping up on streaming only. It seems like this should be positive for volumes, but it is a heavily discounted product versus in-car. And I would guess that a lot of drivers today just don't have the connectivity issues with their phone that they might have had once upon a time. So how do we just think about ARPU longer term as you start to shift the mix towards in-car and streaming only?

然後繼續回答 Vijay 的問題，當你只增加串流媒體時，就圍繞著混合轉變。看起來這對銷售應該是有利的，但與車內產品相比，這是一個大幅折扣的產品。我猜現在很多司機的手機不再有以前可能遇到的連線問題。那麼，當您開始將組合轉向僅限車載和串流媒體時，我們如何考慮長期 ARPU？

Sure. Thanks, Steven. So on conversion rate, much of the benefits that we would expect to have roll through on the in-car conversion rates are really going to come towards the latter part of this year. So what we launched in December, as you know, is our new overall tech platform, but primarily supporting our new streaming app. So we would expect to see progress in streaming first. And where the new tech platform currently benefits our in-car trialers and subscribers is where we have 360L in place, we had a much better search algorithm and at the back end that will support recommendations in 360L.

當然。謝謝，史蒂文。因此，就轉換率而言，我們期望在車內轉換率方面實現的大部分好處實際上將在今年下半年實現。如您所知，我們在 12 月推出了新的整體技術平台，但主要支援我們新的串流應用程式。因此，我們希望首先看到串流媒體方面的進展。目前，新技術平台使我們的車載試用者和訂戶受益的地方是我們擁有 360L，我們擁有更好的搜尋演算法，並且在後端將支援 360L 中的推薦。

And with -- so where we're going to see improvement this year on conversion rates, will be -- especially with the younger audiences, will be where we can improve in 360L because we know that 360L, we see higher conversion rates than non-360L and also across really our trialer -- our base of trialers as we improve marketing. And that is when we have 360L, we can leverage the data, obviously, to provide better personalized marketing. But even if we don't have 360L so across the non-enabled vehicles in new and used, we'll have better marketing capabilities to personalize based on other data points. But that's going to take time to build out. We do have improvements in our overall marketing technology stack, using salesforce that will be in place starting later in the second quarter and rolling through into the third quarter. It's very much tied to the overall migration of our in-car platform.

因此，今年我們將看到轉換率有所改善，特別是對於年輕觀眾，這將是我們在 360L 中可以改進的地方，因為我們知道 360L 的轉換率比非 360L 更高。者－我們改善行銷時的試用者基礎。當我們擁有360L時，我們顯然可以利用這些數據來提供更好的個人化行銷。但即使我們沒有 360L，因此在新車和二手車中，我們也將擁有更好的行銷能力，可以根據其他數據點進行個人化。但這需要時間來建立。我們確實對整體行銷技術堆疊進行了改進，使用的銷售人員將在第二季晚些時候開始到位，並持續到第三季。這與我們車載平台的整體遷移密切相關。

So earlier in the year, we should certainly have more to talk about on the progress we're making in streaming as a leading indicator there. And then just on your question about mix shifts, we really believe that there is really 2 components here to demand and our subscriber base. We have a very loyal and passionate subscriber base in our core segments who we believe we have the opportunity to continue to raise price going forward as long as we continue to enhance value through product improvements and content additions, which we've had a history of doing. And we also believe we have an opportunity to open up more demand with the younger generations, whether it's streaming or in some of the new packages and price points that we'll be launching towards the second half of the year.

因此，在今年早些時候，我們當然應該更多地談論我們在串流媒體方面作為領先指標所取得的進展。關於你關於混合轉變的問題，我們真的相信這裡確實有兩個組成部分需要滿足和我們的訂戶基礎。我們在核心細分市場擁有非常忠誠和熱情的訂戶群，我們相信，只要我們繼續透過產品改進和內容添加來提高價值，我們就有機會繼續提高價格，我們有這樣的歷史正在做。我們也相信，我們有機會向年輕一代開放更多需求，無論是串流媒體還是我們將在今年下半年推出的一些新套餐和價位。

So it's -- it is a factor that we need to look and watch for cannibalization, but we really don't believe it's a concern today. And of course, we have the opportunity going forward to the extent that the streaming package at $9.99 is so compelling. It creates some risk to cannibalization of the in-car base. We can adjust pricing accordingly. And of course, our in-car product includes a lot more than just streaming, right? You can use streaming anywhere you want to listen simultaneously with using the in-car product.

所以這是我們需要尋找和觀察蠶食的一個因素，但我們真的不認為這是今天的問題。當然，我們有機會繼續前進，因為 9.99 美元的串流媒體套餐非常引人注目。它會給車內底座帶來一定的蠶食風險。我們可以相應調整定價。當然，我們的車載產品不僅僅包括串流媒體，對吧？您可以在使用車載產品的同時在任何想要收聽的地方使用串流媒體。

Great. Jennifer, one other thing to add on the younger demo point is as it has been well documented, and you mentioned the content was built for our core demo and they're still as passionate as ever. This year alone, when you think about John Mayer, James Corden and Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, Will.i.am, Shaggy and some of these others, that are being really launched and will bloom throughout '24 and beyond. This is a content play on a younger demo. And generally, our track record as a company when we put out premium content and it's marketed and they're aware, it sometimes takes a little time, but they generally are attracted to that content. So this is really the first time we're going to have significant content for a younger demo. We've always had it, but now it's got the mega brands and people that we've had for our core for years. So I'm looking forward to seeing how that will go.

偉大的。詹妮弗，在年輕的演示點上要添加的另一件事是，它已經得到了充分的記錄，並且您提到內容是為我們的核心演示構建的，並且他們仍然像以前一樣熱情。光是今年，當你想到約翰·梅爾(John Mayer)、詹姆斯·柯登(James Corden) 和凱莉·克拉克森(Kelly Clarkson)、凱莉·安德伍德(Carrie Underwood)、威廉(Will.i .am)、夏吉(Shaggy) 以及其他一些人時，他們就真正推出了，並將在整個24 年及以後蓬勃發展。這是一個較年輕的演示版的內容。一般來說，當我們推出優質內容並進行行銷並且他們意識到時，我們作為一家公司的記錄有時需要一點時間，但他們通常會被這些內容所吸引。所以這確實是我們第一次為年輕的演示提供重要的內容。我們一直擁有它，但現在它有了我們多年來作為核心的大品牌和人才。所以我很期待看到事情會如何發展。

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Goss with Barrington Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barrington Research 的 Jim Goss。

Actually, this follows a little on to what Scott was just talking about. In the programming costs, it seems like you're going to more originals at this stage. And I'm wondering if -- how that ties into the maybe more conservative programming costs you envision? But also the impact on royalty obligations from the shift in the nature of the programming and maybe also the royalty impact from streaming as you get to identify exactly what's being played, and it gets to be a little different from the satellite look at streaming revenues?

事實上，這與斯科特剛才所說的有些相似。在節目製作成本方面，現階段你似乎會選擇更多原創作品。我想知道這與您設想的可能更保守的程式設計成本有何關聯？但節目性質的轉變對版稅義務的影響，也許還有串流媒體的版稅影響，因為你可以準確地確定正在播放的內容，並且它與衛星對串流媒體收入的看法有點不同？

Scott, why don't you talk about the content value props. Sure....

史考特，你為什麼不談內容價值道具？當然....

Sure. So the value proposition, as I -- as you alluded to, is now sort of a blended demo proposition. And we've always had an audience that looks and tries to be younger from the research. So I feel really good that we're going to have a lot of back and forth on the content. For instance, live sports plays every demo, that's been proven, whether it's visual or audio and all that our comedy and other things. And obviously, those are not in the royalty pool on that. The listening is still primarily on the satellite. It's growing, obviously, on the digital. And when you say originals, we're always looking to create original unique content or pieces of it, like SmartLess and other things with that. So we're going to continue to do that. But also curation has always been a major part that under one roof, we're able to service people their needs without now going to 5 or 6 apps like they have to do on video or other things.

當然。因此，正如我所提到的，價值主張現在是一種混合演示主張。而且我們一直有一群從研究中看起來並試圖變得更年輕的觀眾。所以我感覺非常好，我們將就內容進行大量的反覆討論。例如，現場體育比賽會播放所有經過驗證的演示，無論是視覺的還是音頻的以及所有我們的喜劇和其他東西。顯然，這些不屬於版稅池。收聽仍然主要透過衛星進行。顯然，它在數位化方面正在增長。當你說原創時，我們總是希望創造原創的獨特內容或其中的片段，例如 SmartLess 和其他相關內容。所以我們將繼續這樣做。但策劃也一直是一個重要部分，在一個屋簷下，我們能夠滿足人們的需求，而無需像他們在影片或其他事情上那樣使用 5 或 6 個應用程式。

So we still, as mentioned before, we have the -- all the live sports rights all under one roof. And when you combine that with the new programming we're launching and everything else, I've never been more excited about the ability to have exactly what we need to keep our core excited, passionate and paying and at the same time, really putting out a lineup now that a younger demo can be attracted to and feel it's unique to SiriusXM.

所以，正如之前提到的，我們仍然擁有——所有體育賽事直播權都集中在一個屋簷下。當你把它與我們正在推出的新節目和其他一切結合起來時，我從來沒有像現在這樣興奮過，因為我們能夠擁有我們所需要的東西，讓我們的核心保持興奮、熱情和付出，同時真正投入現在推出了一個陣容，可以吸引年輕的演示者並感受到它是 SiriusXM 的獨特之處。

Yes. So I'd say -- I think that's a great summary, Scott. And I would say we have a very flexible model in terms of how we monetize content. And Scott and his team, along with John Trimble, who runs ad sales, look really carefully at the opportunities we have to bring content behind the paywall for SiriusXM subscribers that will enhance value. So for instance, like James Corden that's exclusive to SiriusXM, and we're really excited its first show will be on air today or something more broad like SmartLess, where there'll be a combination of monetized through ad sales, but also some amount of content that's exclusive for SiriusXM.

是的。所以我想說——我認為這是一個很好的總結，斯科特。我想說，我們在內容貨幣化方面有一個非常靈活的模式。 Scott 和他的團隊以及負責廣告銷售的 John Trimble 非常仔細地審視了我們必須為 SiriusXM 訂閱者提供付費內容以提高價值的機會。例如，像 James Corden 一樣，SiriusXM 獨家推出，我們真的很高興它的首個節目將在今天播出，或者像 SmartLess 這樣更廣泛的節目，其中將通過廣告銷售來貨幣化，但也有一定的金額SiriusXM 獨有的內容。

So that's a model we continue to work and perfect, and I think we're in a good place, helps us manage our content costs and monetize in different ways. And then I would say we have had a history of being pretty disciplined on the programming side, and we will continue to do that going forward. More insights with data as to what consumers are listening to in and out of the car will certainly help with content decisions going forward, and we expect to get a lot more of that through 360L and streaming this year.

因此，這是我們繼續努力和完善的模式，我認為我們處於一個很好的位置，可以幫助我們管理內容成本並以不同的方式獲利。然後我想說的是，我們在程式設計方面有著非常嚴格的歷史，我們將繼續這樣做。有關消費者在車內和車外收聽內容的更多數據洞察肯定會有助於未來的內容決策，我們預計今年將透過 360L 和串流媒體獲得更多洞察。

On licensing, so our music licenses are a significant portion of our cost structure that represent probably about a little over 30% of our operating costs. We probably pay about $2 billion to the rights holders. And the largest portion of that is our CRB arrangement for the satellite side of our business, which comes -- doesn't come up again until the end of '27. So we have a lot of predictability around those costs on the in-car side of our business. In streaming, we have a slightly lower percentage when you look at the cost of the music licensing. So for our streaming-only packages, it's a lower percentage, and we have healthy margins in both sides for both streaming and in-car subscribers because our licensing structure is so different from that of the music streaming companies that have direct licenses.

在授權方面，我們的音樂授權是我們成本結構的重要組成部分，約占我們營運成本的 30% 多一點。我們可能向權利持有者支付約 20 億美元。其中最大的一部分是我們對衛星業務的 CRB 安排，直到 27 年底才再次出現。因此，我們對車內業務的這些成本有許多可預測性。在串流媒體領域，當你考慮音樂授權的成本時，我們的百分比略低。因此，對於我們的純串流媒體套餐來說，這個比例較低，而且我們對於串流媒體和車載訂戶雙方都有良好的利潤，因為我們的許可結構與擁有直接許可的音樂串流媒體公司非常不同。

We have direct licenses on the Pandora side of our business, of course, and where we have fully interactive subscriptions, that was a necessity. And those are pretty separate, right? So the dynamics there resemble more of another music streaming company, but on the SiriusXM side, I think it's approximately 15% or so for our satellite license through SoundExchange. And I don't anticipate a lot of shifts in that in the interim based on how people are listening.

當然，我們在業務的潘朵拉方面擁有直接許可證，並且在我們擁有完全互動訂閱的情況下，這是必要的。這些是完全分開的，對吧？因此，那裡的動態更像是另一家音樂串流媒體公司，但在 SiriusXM 方面，我認為我們透過 SoundExchange 獲得的衛星許可約為 15% 左右。根據人們的傾聽方式，我預計在此期間不會發生很多變化。

Our next question is from the line of Jessica Reif Ehrlich with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jessica Reif Ehrlich。

Maybe switching gears a little bit, Jennifer, I think you mentioned 1 of the 3 pillars for growth for the future is advertising, could you give us some color on your long-term advertising plans? What are the drivers? What are your goals? What do you think the TAM is?

也許稍微換個話題，詹妮弗，我想你提到了未來成長的三大支柱之一是廣告，你能給我們介紹一下你的長期廣告計劃嗎？驅動因素是什麼？你的目標是什麼？您認為 TAM 是什麼？

And then secondly, given expectations of a lower '24, what gives you confidence aside from free cash flow, which will obviously benefit from lower CapEx that you can reverse the trends? Is it the rate increase or cost cutting or something else?

其次，考慮到 24 年較低的預期，除了自由現金流之外，還有什麼能讓您有信心，自由現金流顯然會受益於較低的資本支出，您可以扭轉趨勢？是升息還是削減成本還是其他什麼？

And then -- sorry, but I just wanted to ask on something that Scott just said that -- are you considering or have you considered bundling your service with others? Or do you view your content already is like all encompassing, so that you don't need to do that?

然後 - 抱歉，但我只是想問斯科特剛才所說的事情 - 您是否正在考慮或是否考慮過將您的服務與其他人捆綁在一起？或者您認為您的內容已經包羅萬象，因此您不需要這樣做？

Well, thanks, Jessica. I'll let Scott jump in. But on bundling, it has clearly been an opportunity that we've seen many of the video streamers use in conjunction with whether it's telcos or others. And we do have relationships in place with T-Mobile and Walmart and others where we -- it's primarily what I would call distribution, and those have been effective. I think we'll have more opportunities as we launch the new commerce platform more broadly. It just makes it easier to do those types of things. But in terms of the true sort of hard bundle with content, I think an interesting opportunity, obviously, is going to come through when we launch Audible and we're trying to find ways to really make it integrated in terms of having content on one another's platforms and also a trial offer.

嗯，謝謝，潔西卡。我會讓斯科特介入。我們確實與 T-Mobile 和沃爾瑪以及其他公司建立了關係——這主要是我所說的分銷，而且這些關係一直很有效。我認為，隨著我們更廣泛地推出新的商務平台，我們將擁有更多機會。它只是讓做這些事情變得更容易。但就真正的內容硬捆綁而言，我認為，顯然，當我們推出 Audible 時，將會出現一個有趣的機會，我們正在努力尋找方法，真正將其整合到一個內容上。 。

So we'll be able to experiment with different types of offers this year and bundles. And I do think it's -- we're very attractive to a number of potential partners given our very low churn. So that's certainly an opportunity. I don't know, Scott, if you have anything else to add on that?

因此，我們今年將能夠嘗試不同類型的優惠和捆綁包。我確實認為，鑑於我們的客戶流失率非常低，我們對許多潛在合作夥伴非常有吸引力。所以這當然是一個機會。史考特，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just one point, Jessica. Obviously, as Jennifer mentioned, we're attractive because we have a lot of exclusive content that we like to be exclusive in all of that. But where we're starting to see traction is, as I mentioned in the earned media, so much heat comes off our content, meaning from the radio and the podcasting, people are now tracking back and checking out the service and trying it. So if there was a way that it increased the right amount of free sampling of what comes out on a daily basis in any version of our news, talk, sports, comedy, music, I would love to look at that. But what I'm not interested in is increasing someone else's bundle at our expense. So it will have to be the right thing. And as Jennifer mentioned, there's plenty asking to do it. So we'll see where it goes.

是的。只有一點，潔西卡。顯然，正如詹妮弗所提到的，我們很有吸引力，因為我們有很多獨家內容，我們希望在所有這些內容中都是獨家的。但正如我在免費媒體中提到的，我們開始看到吸引力的地方是，我們的內容（即廣播和播客）產生瞭如此多的熱度，人們現在正在回溯並檢查該服務並嘗試它。因此，如果有一種方法可以增加我們任何版本的新聞、談話、體育、喜劇、音樂中每天發布的內容的適量免費採樣，我很願意看看。但我對以我們為代價來增加別人的捆綁不感興趣。所以這一定是正確的事。正如詹妮弗所提到的，有很多人要求這樣做。所以我們會看看它會走向何方。

Yes. I'll let Tom cover free cash flow in a minute. But on advertising, Jessica, it is 1 of our 3 pillars. We'll do -- we did about $1.8 billion in advertising last year, and it's -- we have a really strong position in audio. I like our assets here with broadcast and Pandora, which is really still a key driver. We do about 60% of our ad revenue through Pandora. And really, despite the listener declines, which had mitigated some to some extent last year, MAUs were down about 3%. It's about the same for ad hours as well. It still remains a core value proposition, and that has a lot to do with the fact that we have a lot of great opportunities to serve advertisers and important ad units, whether it's display audio or video in Pandora. So we've been able to really -- and the team has done a great job continuing to improve monetization in Pandora. But the collection of assets we have has been key to taking advantage of opportunities in the space.

是的。我很快就會讓湯姆支付自由現金流。但在廣告方面，潔西卡，這是我們的三大支柱之一。我們會做的——去年我們在廣告上投入了大約 18 億美元，而且——我們在音頻領域擁有非常強大的地位。我喜歡我們的廣播和潘朵拉資產，這仍然是一個關鍵驅動因素。我們大約 60% 的廣告收入來自 Pandora。事實上，儘管去年聽眾人數下降有所緩解，但每月活躍用戶數仍下降了約 3%。廣告時間也大致相同。它仍然是一個核心價值主張，這與我們有很多很好的機會為廣告商和重要的廣告單元提供服務（無論是在 Pandora 中顯示音訊還是視訊）這一事實有很大關係。因此，我們確實能夠——並且團隊在繼續提高潘多拉的貨幣化方面做得非常出色。但我們所擁有的資產收集對於利用該領域的機會至關重要。

So obviously, there have been a lot of tailwinds around podcasting, and we continue to see growth and opportunities there going forward. And then programmatic across both streaming and podcasting is a huge tailwind and there will be more solutions that we'll provide there that will enhance our ability to grow in that area as well. So it's really the collection of assets we have and continuing to lean into those. I think Pandora gets better when we move to looking to replatform that. SiriusXM digital will provide another opportunity for more targeted ad units as well on the SiriusXM business. We will look at opportunities to enhance our position in free whether that's Pandora, SiriusXM or some combination of those probably, as we get into 2025. So there will be more ad opportunities on platform, but we also think there's growth off-platform as it relates to podcasting, the tech fees business that we're in and just general marketplace revenue. And then free cash flow?

顯然，播客有很多順風車，我們繼續看到未來的成長和機會。然後，串流媒體和播客的程序化是一個巨大的推動力，我們將在那裡提供更多解決方案，這也將增強我們在該領域的發展能力。所以這實際上是我們擁有的資產的集合，並繼續依賴這些資產。我認為當我們尋求重新建構平台時，潘朵拉會變得更好。 SiriusXM digital 將為更有針對性的廣告單元以及 SiriusXM 業務提供另一個機會。進入2025 年，我們將尋找機會來增強我們在免費領域的地位，無論是Pandora、SiriusXM 或這些平台的某種組合。會出現成長。那麼自由現金流呢？

And then free cash flow, Jessica, when you look at the free cash flow, Obviously, it's heavily dependent on 2 things, which we've talked about. The sat CapEx is going to continue to decline over the next few years. I think overall CapEx 2024 is going to be our high watermark. And I think as you look outward in 2025 and onward, our sat CapEx has naturally come down, as the satellites are launched and our non-sat CapEX will start tailing off after I think we get through the middle of 2025, as we get the Pandora app up and refreshed. But from there, our non-sat CapEx should start trending down also. So it's a natural trajectory. Obviously, there's the EBITDA that impacts it and the rest of the factors, but the major play that's moving the number up is getting back to -- into the cycle of sat CapEx.

然後是自由現金流，傑西卡，當你觀察自由現金流時，顯然，它嚴重依賴我們已經討論過的兩件事。未來幾年，衛星資本支出將持續下降。我認為 2024 年總體資本支出將是我們的高水位線。我認為，當你展望 2025 年及以後，我們的衛星資本支出自然會下降，因為衛星已發射，而我們的非衛星資本支出將在我認為我們度過 2025 年中期後開始減少，因為我們得到潘多拉應用程式已上線並刷新。但從那時起，我們的非飽和資本支出也應該開始下降。所以這是一個自然的軌跡。顯然，息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）會影響它以及其他因素，但推動這一數字上升的主要因素是回到飽和資本支出的週期。

Yes. I think that $1.20 billion for our guidance this year on free cash flow being relatively flat to last year, of course, excluding some of the potential Liberty transaction impacts is a real strong signal, and we should be at a low point in free cash flow with opportunities in the years to come.

是的。我認為今年 12 億美元的自由現金流指引與去年相對持平，當然，排除一些潛在的 Liberty 交易影響，這是一個真正強烈的信號，我們的自由現金流應該處於低點以及未來幾年的機會。

Our next and final question will be from the line of Jason Bazinet with Citi.

我們的下一個也是最後一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Jason Bazinet。

I just have a deal-related question. You guys have been very consistent about a 3Q close. My sense is that the risk arb community or event-driven community is a little bit confused about that timing. They think it's conservative and could happen sooner. So I think there's an FCC license transfer and then there's a shareholder vote on the Liberty side. Can you just sort of unpack what your assumptions are that undergirds the 3Q close?

我只是有一個與交易相關的問題。你們對第三季收盤的看法非常一致。我的感覺是，風險套利社群或事件驅動社群對這個時機有點困惑。他們認為這是保守的，而且可能會更早發生。因此，我認為需要進行 FCC 許可證轉讓，然後由 Liberty 一方進行股東投票。您能否解釋一下支持第三季收盤價的假設是什麼？

So Jason, if you look at it, when we initially worked on our time line with Liberty, we're on target as far as what our current schedule is. We sent -- we filed our -- Liberty filed the S-4 on Monday. And so that was on the time line that we envisioned. The FCC license has been applied. And as we said, I think the long pole in the tent is going to be the SEC process, the number of reviews and corresponding follow-up that we need to do. So right now, we have no indicators that are new based upon what we've seen that it would be any earlier. But we're very focused on trying to get it done as fast as we can.

所以傑森，如果你看一下，當我們最初與 Liberty 一起制定時間表時，我們就目前的時間表而言，已經達到了目標。我們週一發送了——我們提交了——Liberty 提交了 S-4。這就是我們設想的時間線。已申請FCC許可。正如我們所說，我認為帳篷裡的長桿將是 SEC 流程、審查數量​​以及我們需要做的相應後續行動。所以現在，根據我們所看到的情況，我們沒有任何新的指標，表明它會更早。但我們非常專注於盡可能快地完成它。

Thank you, Jason, and thank you, everybody, for participating today. Talk to you soon.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝大家今天的參與。很快就和你談談。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。