Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to SiriusXM's Third Quarter 2023 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 SiriusXM 2023 年第三季財務與營運績效電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式演講後將舉行問答環節。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I'll now turn the conference over to Hooper Stevens, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Finance. Mr. Stevens, you may begin.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係和財務高級副總裁胡珀史蒂文斯 (Hooper Stevens)。史蒂文斯先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to SiriusXM's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today, we will have prepared remarks from Jennifer Witz, our Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Barry, our Chief Financial Officer. Scott Greenstein, our President and Chief Content Officer, will join Jennifer and Tom to take your questions during the Q&A portion of this call.

謝謝大家，大家早安。歡迎參加 SiriusXM 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天，我們將準備我們執行長 Jennifer Witz 的演講；以及我們的財務長湯姆·巴里 (Tom Barry)。我們的總裁兼首席內容官斯科特·格林斯坦（Scott Greenstein）將與詹妮弗和湯姆一起在本次電話會議的問答部分回答您的問題。

I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during the call might be forward-looking statements as the term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These and all forward-looking statements are based upon management's current beliefs and expectations and necessarily depend upon assumptions, data or methods that may be incorrect or imprecise. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For more information about those risks and uncertainties, please view SiriusXM's SEC filings and today's earnings release.

我想提醒大家，電話會議期間所做的某些陳述可能是前瞻性陳述，該術語的定義見1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》。 ，以及必然依賴可能不正確或不精確的假設、數據或方法。此類前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請查看 SiriusXM 向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的財報。

We advise listeners to not rely unduly on forward-looking statements and disclaim any intent or obligation to update them. As we begin, I'd like to remind our listeners that today's call will include discussions about both actual results and adjusted results. All discussions of adjusted operating results exclude the effects of stock-based compensation.

我們建議聽眾不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述，並否認任何更新這些陳述的意圖或義務。在我們開始之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天的電話會議將包括有關實際結果和調整後結果的討論。所有對調整後經營績效的討論均排除了股票薪酬的影響。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Jennifer.

這樣，我就把電話轉給詹妮弗。

Thanks, Hooper, and good morning, everyone. We really appreciate everyone being here today. We are pleased with the strong progress we made this quarter and remain on track to meet our goals for the full year. We closed the quarter with approximately 34 million total subscribers to our flagship SiriusXM service and continued to drive sequential improvements quarter-to-quarter in self-pay net subs.

謝謝胡珀，大家早安。我們非常感謝今天來到這裡的大家。我們對本季取得的強勁進展感到高興，並將繼續實現全年目標。截至本季末，我們的旗艦 SiriusXM 服務訂閱用戶總數約為 3,400 萬，並繼續推動自付費淨訂閱用戶逐季連續改進。

Subscriber churn remains incredibly low at approximately 1.6% despite increases in vehicle-related turnover. And although we did not issue formal subscriber guidance for 2023, we are still anticipating slightly positive self-pay net subscriber additions for the back half of this year. The overall ad market remained soft, and we expect to close the year relatively flat versus last year. While the WGA and SAG after strikes resulted in delayed campaigns within the entertainment space this past quarter, we did begin to see some key verticals such as CPG start to bounce back. Podcasting also remains a tailwind both our programmatic and audience buying capabilities continue to set us apart, making SiriusXM an important marketing partner given our flexibility and scale.

儘管與車輛相關的營業額有所增加，但訂戶流失率仍然低得令人難以置信，約為 1.6%。儘管我們沒有發布 2023 年正式訂戶指引，但我們仍預計今年下半年自付費用淨訂戶數量將略有增加。整體廣告市場仍然疲軟，我們預計今年的收盤情況將與去年相比相對持平。雖然 WGA 和 SAG 罷工導致上個季度娛樂領域的活動推遲，但我們確實開始看到一些關鍵垂直行業（例如 CPG）開始反彈。播客仍然是我們的一大推動力，我們的程式化和受眾購買能力繼續使我們與眾不同，鑑於我們的靈活性和規模，使 SiriusXM 成為重要的行銷合作夥伴。

As we've shared with you over the last few quarters, we have been accelerating our transformation of the SiriusXM business to better capture consumer demand for our live human-curated audio service that differentiates us and to position ourselves to capture positive subscriber growth in the years ahead. Our resilient and extremely profitable business model underscored by our significant ongoing cash flow generation persist even amid this investment phase of our business, as we ready for the upcoming rollout of our next-generation platform later this quarter. Ahead of the launch, the past quarter, we continued to focus efforts on improving returns in our streaming business. Increasing efficiencies and bringing in new trialers and enhancing onboarding and retention of streaming-only customers.

正如我們在過去幾個季度與您分享的那樣，我們一直在加速SiriusXM 業務的轉型，以更好地捕捉消費者對我們的實時人工策劃音頻服務的需求，這使我們脫穎而出，並定位自己以捕捉用戶的積極成長。即使在我們業務的投資階段，我們的彈性和極其盈利的業務模式仍然以我們持續產生的大量現金流為特色，因為我們為即將在本季度晚些時候推出的下一代平台做好了準備。在上個季度推出之前，我們繼續致力於提高串流媒體業務的回報。提高效率並引入新的試用者，並增強純串流媒體客戶的入職和保留。

And while still very early, we are beginning to see the first cohort of trialers moving off the 6-month streaming offer we announced with T-Mobile earlier this year, our first ever integrated billing provider, and we are pleased with the results. We are confident that the launch later this year of our new streaming products, brand platform and enhanced marketing capabilities will put us on a path for continued improvements in subscriber acquisition and retention as we move through next year. This launch is just the beginning of a series of innovations in our products, marketing and content that we expect will only accelerate in the coming years. We look forward to going into much more detail on our transformation with you at our press and industry preview event a week from tomorrow where we will reveal what we've been up to this past year and provide a first look at our new streaming experience, unveil a refreshed brand and more.

雖然還為時過早，但我們已經開始看到第一批試用者放棄我們今年早些時候與T-Mobile（我們的第一個整合計費提供者）宣布的6 個月串流服務，我們對結果感到滿意。我們相信，今年稍後推出的新串流媒體產品、品牌平台和增強的行銷能力將使我們在明年的用戶獲取和保留方面走上持續改進的道路。這次發布只是我們產品、行銷和內容一系列創新的開始，我們預計這些創新在未來幾年只會加速。我們期待在明天一周後的新聞和行業預覽活動中與您一起詳細了解我們的轉型，屆時我們將透露我們在過去一年中所做的事情，並首次展示我們新的串流媒體體驗，推出煥然一新的品牌等。

We'll also be participating in Liberty Media's Investor Day next Thursday, and while Tom will briefly address the business combination proposal that Liberty Media publicly announced, I'll just say that we have a strong and capable special committee of independent directors responsible for the negotiations, and we'll share more when there's something to announce. While our streaming experience will be a cornerstone of our company's long-term future growth, the in-car experience continues to drive our business today. We are pleased with the progress made in the quarter, driving the innovation of new technologies and adoption of our 360L platform and extending long-term agreements with automakers. In fact, I'm excited to announce today that beginning with model year 2024, in addition to being available on the F-150 Lightning, Ford will make SiriusXM a standard feature in traditional F-150s and America's best-selling vehicle for 41 years running.

我們也將參加下週四自由媒體的投資者日，雖然湯姆將簡要介紹自由媒體公開宣布的業務合併提案，但我只想說，我們有一個強大而有能力的獨立董事特別委員會，負責談判，當有事情要宣佈時我們會分享更多。雖然我們的串流媒體體驗將成為我們公司未來長期成長的基石，但車載體驗將繼續推動我們今天的業務。我們對本季的進展感到高興，推動了新技術的創新和 360L 平台的採用，並延長了與汽車製造商的長期協議。事實上，我今天很高興地宣布，從 2024 年款開始，除了 F-150 Lightning 上配備之外，福特還將讓 SiriusXM 成為傳統 F-150 和美國 41 年來最暢銷車輛的標準配置跑步。

We are also excited for the debut of our 360L platform on the Android Automotive operating system later this year. This will bring with it the introduction of what we call Ignition on recommendations, our most sophisticated in-car personalization yet that solves for Choice paralysis and gets listeners to the content they want to hear the moment they turn on the car.

我們也很高興今年稍後我們的 360L 平台在 Android Automotive 作業系統上首次亮相。這將帶來我們所謂的「推薦點火」功能，這是我們迄今為止最先進的車內個人化功能，可以解決「選擇癱瘓」的問題，並讓聽眾在打開汽車時就听到他們想听的內容。

As we've said before, these types of features have driven better conversion rates and better retention. And over time, we expect that Android will grow to become the dominant OEM operating system, improving 360L adoption and feature parity along the way. So this launch marks a significant milestone for us. Looking back at the past quarter, we brought listeners closer to the artist, personalities and content creators they love with a diverse programming slate that sets our premium curated radio service apart.

正如我們之前所說，這些類型的功能帶來了更好的轉換率和更好的保留率。隨著時間的推移，我們預計 Android 將成長為主導的 OEM 作業系統，從而提高 360L 的採用率和功能對等性。因此，這次發布對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑。回顧過去的季度，我們透過多樣化的節目板拉近了聽眾與他們喜愛的藝術家、名人和內容創作者的距離，這使我們的優質策劃廣播服務與眾不同。

For example, with the 2024 presidential season already underway, we're seeing growing interest in our political programming, which we can expect to rise further as we move closer to next year's general election. This includes a significant percentage growth in listeners to Megan Kelly show, which we recently announced, we've extended with a new multiyear deal. Megan continues to deliver in-depth interviews with significant political and cultural figures, including last month when she had a headline making exclusive interview with former President, Donald Trump. We're incredibly proud to be a platform that provides a wide range of viewpoints across our political channels, from the regular appearances of leading Democrats on our progress channel to town halls with some of the top Republican candidates.

例如，隨著 2024 年總統季的到來，我們看到人們對我們的政治規劃的興趣日益濃厚，隨著明年大選的臨近，我們預計這種興趣會進一步上升。這包括梅根凱利節目的聽眾人數顯著增長，我們最近宣布，我們已經延長了一項新的多年期協議。梅根繼續對重要的政治和文化人物進行深入採訪，包括上個月她對前總統唐納德·川普進行獨家採訪的頭條新聞。我們非常自豪能夠成為一個在我們的政治管道中提供廣泛觀點的平台，從主要民主黨人在我們的進步頻道上的定期露面到與一些頂級共和黨候選人一起在市政廳露面。

In fact, in the last quarter, we've had interviews with every major presidential candidate across our Patriot, (inaudible) progress and Triumph channels. In addition to our own SiriusXM produced channels, we also provide simulcast of the biggest television news outlets in the country, including CNBC, CNN, HLN, MSNBC and Today Show Radio. And last week, we announced a multiyear extension of our agreement to carry FOX News, FOX Business and FOX News Headlines 24/7. Overall sports listening was also up in the quarter. And with the start of the NFL season, we are seeing positive trends in listeners to our SiriusXM NFL radio channel, which saw an uptick year-over-year in percentage of total listeners and time spent listening, more fans are discovering and connecting with the excellent NFL content and commentary we deliver. That's not only live broadcast of every game with your home town announcers but unique and exclusive talk content beyond the games.

事實上，在上個季度，我們透過愛國者、（聽不清楚）進步和凱旋頻道採訪了每位主要總統候選人。除了我們自己的 SiriusXM 製作的頻道外，我們還提供國內最大的電視新聞媒體的聯播，包括 CNBC、CNN、HLN、MSNBC 和 Today Show Radio。上週，我們宣布將我們的協議延長多年，以 24/7 播出福克斯新聞、福克斯商業新聞和福克斯新聞頭條。本季的整體體育收聽率也有所上升。隨著 NFL 賽季的開始，我們看到 SiriusXM NFL 廣播頻道的聽眾呈現出積極的趨勢，該頻道的聽眾總數百分比和收聽時間逐年上升，越來越多的球迷發現並與該頻道建立聯繫。精彩的NFL 內容和評論。這不僅是與您家鄉播音員一起現場直播每場比賽，而且是比賽之外獨特且獨家的談話內容。

We launched the third season of our exclusive show, let's go with Tom Brady, Larry Fitzgerald and Jim Gray in September. In this season, we added former Pool quarter back, Alex Smith to our roster of host, with so much action across the NFL, college football, the NBA, the NHL and MLS this fall alone, we delivered consumers exceptional value as the one-stop destination for so many sports.

我們在九月推出了獨家節目第三季，讓我們與湯姆布雷迪、拉里·菲茨杰拉德和吉姆·格雷一起去吧。在本賽季，我們將前台球四分衛亞歷克斯史密斯(Alex Smith) 添加到了我們的主持人名單中，僅在今年秋天，我們就在NFL、大學橄欖球、NBA、NHL 和MLS 等地舉辦瞭如此多的賽事，我們為消費者提供了非凡的價值——這麼多運動的停止目的地。

Likewise, for music fans, we had something for everyone this past quarter. From our incredible specialty programming, spotlighting, Latin music and culture across SiriusXM and Pandora throughout Hispanic Heritage Month to a dedicated edge share and pop-up channel, where SiriusXM listeners could hear the Grammy award-winning artist exclusive show for SiriusXM listeners this summer in the Hamptons. In celebration of the 50th anniversary of HipHop in August, we hosted a day of events, including a one-of-a-kind concert with [Lutan] clan and a very special community event with the Boys & Girls Club in multiple cities. The event was also part of our SiriusXM Cares philanthropic initiative that aims to promote and further social quality with a holistic approach to giving and greater alignment with the communities in which we live and work.

同樣，對於音樂迷來說，我們在上個季度為每個人提供了一些東西。從整個西班牙傳統月期間SiriusXM 和Pandora 上令人難以置信的專業節目、聚焦、拉丁音樂和文化，到專門的邊緣共享和彈出頻道，SiriusXM 聽眾可以在今年夏天在SiriusXM 聽眾中聽到格萊美獎獲獎藝術家的獨家表演。為了慶祝 8 月 HipHop 成立 50 週年，我們舉辦了一天的活動，包括與 [Lutan] 部落舉辦的一場獨一無二的音樂會，以及與 Boys & Girls Club 在多個城市舉辦的非常特別的社區活動。該活動也是我們 SiriusXM Cares 慈善計劃的一部分，該計劃旨在透過整體的捐贈方式以及與我們生活和工作的社區的更加協調一致來促進和提高社會品質。

Hip Hop music and artists have impacted our culture in such meaningful ways over the years, and it was an honor to get back to the next generation of change makers. TikTok Radio also continues to be a great success for us in delivering content that resonates with younger, more diverse listeners. We've built out an incredible roster of TikTok influencers that host the channel, and this past quarter continued to deliver different formats in how we package and present viral music through these personalities.

多年來，嘻哈音樂和藝術家以如此有意義的方式影響了我們的文化，很榮幸能回到下一代變革者身邊。 TikTok Radio 在提供與更年輕、更多元化的聽眾產生共鳴的內容方面也繼續取得巨大成功。我們已經建立了一個令人難以置信的 TikTok 影響者名單來主持該頻道，上個季度繼續提供不同的格式，透過這些人物包裝和呈現病毒式音樂。

For example, in September, we introduced a new top 10 weekly countdown show comprised of the most popular songs on the platform in the U.S. hosted by one of our resident pop culture TikTok influencers. And just yesterday, we introduced dedicated shows for each of the TikTok personalities where they share music and add commentary on their respective areas of influence on the viral platform. Moving on to our advertising business. Podcasting continues to be a growth driver.

例如，9月份，我們推出了新的每週十大倒數節目，其中包括美國平台上最受歡迎的歌曲，由我們的一位常駐流行文化 TikTok 影響者主持。就在昨天，我們為每位 TikTok 名人推出了專門的節目，他們在這個病毒平台上分享音樂並就各自的影響領域添加評論。繼續我們的廣告業務。播客仍然是成長動力。

We have already booked more in 2023 than we delivered in full year 2022 sales. Our third quarter podcasting growth of 28% is outpacing the broader marketplace and programmatic specifically was up 97% year-over-year. We are focused on delivering innovative solutions within this space by continuing to develop our targeting capabilities both at an audience and show level as well as through bigger picture work aimed at addressing industry pain points.

我們 2023 年的預訂量已經超過了 2022 年全年的銷售量。我們第三季的播客成長了 28%，超過了更廣泛的市場，特別是程式化廣告年增了 97%。我們致力於在這一領域提供創新的解決方案，繼續發展我們在觀眾和演出層面的定位能力，以及旨在解決行業痛點的更大範圍的工作。

This includes a new first-of-its-kind third-party brand safety and suitability verification solution for podcast advertising developed together with barometer and marketing automation platform, Arts AI. We can now provide brands with reporting mid-campaign so they can optimize their buy in real time as well as receive a post-campaign analysis that includes brand suitability and contextual insights to give them confidence in their investment. By removing historical barriers to the podcast marketplace such as brand suitability, we are able to welcome new advertisers to the space and expand the broader pool of ad dollars available to us. We remain focused on further scaling our advertising offering, and we expect the relaunch of the SiriusXM platform to drive increases in our SiriusXM digital monthly active users over time, opening up new opportunities within our growing advertising business.

其中包括與晴雨表和行銷自動化平台 Arts AI 共同開發的全新播客廣告第三方品牌安全性和適用性驗證解決方案。我們現在可以為品牌提供活動中期報告，以便他們可以即時優化購買，並接收活動後分析，其中包括品牌適合性和背景洞察，讓他們對自己的投資充滿信心。透過消除播客市場的歷史障礙（例如品牌適用性），我們能夠歡迎新的廣告商進入該領域，並擴大我們可用的廣告資金池。我們仍然專注於進一步擴大我們的廣告服務，我們預計 SiriusXM 平台的重新推出將隨著時間的推移推動 SiriusXM 數位月度活躍用戶的增加，為我們不斷增長的廣告業務開闢新的機會。

Again, I am extremely pleased with our results and progress in the third quarter. Looking ahead, we expect SiriusXM's robust cash generation to grow in the coming years and we like our position as a leading premium human-curated audio service in North America. I look forward to sharing many more details on our transformation underway next week at our event in New York.

我再次對第三季的業績和進展感到非常滿意。展望未來，我們預計 SiriusXM 強勁的現金流將在未來幾年內成長，並且我們看好我們作為北美領先的優質人工策劃音訊服務的地位。我期待在下週於紐約舉行的活動中分享有關我們正在進行的轉型的更多細節。

I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will go through the financials in more detail.

我現在將其交給湯姆，他將更詳細地了解財務狀況。

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. As Jennifer noted, third quarter results are in line with our overall expectations. Now let's dive into the third quarter financials. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.27 billion. Within that, advertising revenue of $460 million grew just under 1%, while subscription revenue was unchanged at $1.7 billion.

謝謝你，詹妮弗，大家早安。正如詹妮弗所指出的，第三季業績符合我們的整體預期。現在讓我們深入了解第三季的財務狀況。該季度營收為 22.7 億美元。其中，廣告收入為 4.6 億美元，成長略低於 1%，而訂閱收入則維持在 17 億美元不變。

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6% on a sequential basis and approximately 4% year-over-year to $747 million. This improvement can be attributed to our cost optimization initiatives and reduced sales and marketing expenses, which were partially offset by an uptick in revenue share and royalties. Our cost savings initiatives produced nearly $40 million of ongoing net savings during the third quarter, and we continue to look for new efficiencies. Operating expenses for the third quarter decreased by 6% overall. Turning to net income. We recorded a 47% year-over-year increase in the quarter to $363 million, translating to diluted earnings per common share of $0.09.

調整後 EBITDA 環比成長 6%，年增約 4%，達到 7.47 億美元。這項改善可歸因於我們的成本優化措施以及銷售和行銷費用的減少，但收入份額和特許權使用費的增加部分抵消了這些費用。我們的成本節約計劃在第三季度實現了近 4000 萬美元的持續淨節省，並且我們將繼續尋求新的效率。第三季營運費用整體下降6%。轉向淨利。本季我們的業績年增 47%，達到 3.63 億美元，攤薄後每股普通股收益為 0.09 美元。

Free cash flow was $291 million in the third quarter, 12% lower than last year's third quarter as we ramped up satellite and non-satellite capital expenditures as well as saw a slight increase in cash taxes due to reduced R&D and other tax credits. As many of you probably know, we remain in a period of heightened satellite CapEx but continue to see this tapering to zero in the coming years. As a refresh, we are expecting approximately $300 million in satellite CapEx for the full year 2023 as we ramp SXM 11 and 12 and on top of the ongoing preparation for SXM 9 and 10.

第三季自由現金流為 2.91 億美元，比去年第三季下降 12%，原因是我們增加了衛星和非衛星資本支出，並且由於研發和其他稅收抵免減少而導致現金稅略有增加。正如你們許多人可能知道的那樣，我們仍處於衛星資本支出增加的時期，但在未來幾年中，這種支出將繼續減少到零。作為更新，我們預計 2023 年全年衛星資本支出將達到約 3 億美元，因為我們將逐步推出 SXM 11 和 12，以及正在進行的 SXM 9 和 10 準備工作。

Using ballpark numbers, we will see satellite CapEx remain in the $280 million to $300 million range in 2024 before declining to approximately $175 million in 2025, $95 million in 2026 and $45 million in 2027. Heading into 2028, we should be at or near zero. Additionally, non-satellite capital expenditures rose by roughly $25 million, primarily related to the next-gen SiriusXM launch that we plan to showcase next week. [Non-sat] CapEx will be in the $350 million to $400 million range this year. As previously mentioned, we anticipate delivering a meaningful portion of our free full year free cash flow in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal trends in our business and the timing of royalty, satellite and interest payments. Now turning to the segments. In the SiriusXM segment, we delivered $1.7 billion in revenue, down 1% year-over-year and flat sequentially. The SiriusXM advertising revenue was the toughest quarter of the business, down 16% year-over-year as we continue to navigate an extremely tough broadcast advertising market.

根據粗略數字，我們將看到衛星資本支出在2024 年維持在2.8 億至3 億美元範圍內，然後在2025 年下降至約1.75 億美元，2026 年下降至9500 萬美元，2027 年下降至4500 萬美元。此外，非衛星資本支出增加了約 2500 萬美元，主要與我們計劃下週展示的下一代 SiriusXM 的發布有關。 [Non-sat] 今年資本支出將在 3.5 億至 4 億美元之間。如前所述，在我們業務的季節性趨勢以及特許權使用費、衛星和利息支付時間的推動下，我們預計將在第四季度實現全年自由現金流的重要部分。現在轉向細分市場。在 SiriusXM 領域，我們實現了 17 億美元的收入，年減 1%，與上一季持平。 SiriusXM 廣告收入是業務中最困難的季度，年減 16%，因為我們繼續應對極其艱難的廣播廣告市場。

OEM paid promotional subscribers and connected vehicle revenue declines were partially offset by growth in self-pay subscription revenue. Total ARPU during the third quarter was $15.69. We benefited from a March price increase on select full price plans and saw headwinds to reported ARPU from promotional self-pay subscription plans. The lowering advertising revenues I mentioned and lower paid promotional plan rates from certain OEMs as well as higher balances on paid trials, subs and unsold vehicle inventory. Gross profit in the SiriusXM segment decreased 3% to $1.047 billion compared to last year's third quarter, representing a margin of 61%, down only about 1 point as we absorbed roughly $20 million in higher music royalties, slightly offset by improved OEM rev share.

OEM 付費促銷訂閱者和連網車輛收入的下降被自付費訂閱收入的成長部分抵消。第三季的 ARPU 總額為 15.69 美元。我們受益於 3 月份精選全價計劃的價格上漲，並看到促銷自付費訂閱計劃對報告的 ARPU 產生不利影響。 我提到的廣告收入下降、某些原始設備製造商的付費促銷計劃費率降低以及付費試用、訂閱和未售出車輛庫存的餘額增加。與去年第三季相比，SiriusXM 部門的毛利下降了3%，至10.47 億美元，利潤率為61%，僅下降了約1 個百分點，因為我們吸收了約2000 萬美元的音樂版稅增長，但被OEM 收入份額的提高略有抵消。

In the Pandora and off-platform segment, total revenue of $550 million increased 4% compared to the prior quarter and 2% on a year-over-year basis. Advertising revenue in the segment of $418 million increased 3% year-over-year and approximately 5% sequentially, driven by steady growth in podcasting and programmatic ad sales. Gross profit in the Pandora and off-platform segment of $180 million increased 4% year-over-year and approximately 18% sequentially as a result of improving podcasting margins partially offset by higher year-over-year music royalties, representing a total margin of 33%.

在 Pandora 和平台外業務領域，總營收為 5.5 億美元，較上季成長 4%，較去年同期成長 2%。在播客和程序化廣告銷售穩定成長的推動下，該部門的廣告收入為 4.18 億美元，年增 3%，較上季成長約 5%。 Pandora 和平台外業務的毛利為 1.8 億美元，年增 4%，季增約 18%，這是由於播客利潤率的提高部分被音樂版稅同比增長所抵消，總利潤率為33%。

On the capital allocation front, we returned approximately $165 million to shareholders in the third quarter composed of $93 million in dividends and $72 million of stock repurchase. And we recently announced another 10% hike to our recurring dividend, the seventh annual increase since its original inception in 2016. We ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.3x. At the end of the third quarter, we were through our share repurchase plan given Liberty's proposed offer. This was a requirement from an SEC regulatory perspective. At this time, we expect to remain out of the market while the transaction is pending.

在資本配置方面，我們第三季向股東返還了約 1.65 億美元，其中包括 9,300 萬美元的股息和 7,200 萬美元的股票回購。我們最近宣布將經常性股息再次上調 10%，這是自 2016 年最初設立以來第七次年度上調。在第三季末，鑑於 Liberty 提出的要約，我們完成了股票回購計畫。這是從 SEC 監管角度來看的要求。目前，我們預計在交易懸而未決期間不會進入市場。

Regardless of transaction hypotheticals, we will always value a strong balance sheet that provides some flexibility to navigate changing market environments. So looking ahead, we plan to continue to be capital efficient and maintain our existing long-term leverage target of low to mid-3s. Today, we also reiterated our existing financial guidance for 2023. We with revenue approximately $9 billion, adjusted EBITDA of roughly $2.75 billion and free cash flow of about $1.15 billion. And last, but certainly not least, as you're aware, the special committee of independent directors of our Board received a nonbinding proposal from Liberty Media regarding a potential transaction involving the company.

無論交易假設如何，我們始終重視強大的資產負債表，它可以提供一定的靈活性來應對不斷變化的市場環境。因此，展望未來，我們計劃繼續保持資本效率，並維持現有的低至中3的長期槓桿目標。今天，我們也重申了現有的 2023 年財務指引。最後，但同樣重要的是，如您所知，我們董事會的獨立董事特別委員會收到了 Liberty Media 關於涉及該公司的潛在交易的非約束性提案。

This potential transaction will consist of the separation of the assets and liabilities attributed to the Liberty SiriusXM tracking stock group from Liberty Media through a split-off of a newly formed company and the subsequent combination of NewCo and SiriusXM. As a result of these potential transactions, the holders of Liberty SiriusXM tracking stock in our stock would all hold one class of common stock of the combined company. The special committee has engaged advisers and is evaluating the proposal.

這項潛在的交易將包括透過新成立的公司的分拆以及隨後 NewCo 和 SiriusXM 的合併，將 Liberty SiriusXM 追蹤股票集團的資產和負債從 Liberty Media 中分離出來。由於這些潛在的交易，我們股票中的 Liberty SiriusXM 追蹤股票的持有者將全部持有合併後公司的一類普通股。特別委員會已聘請顧問並正在評估該提案。

In this transaction, we, that is the company and our management team are really playing a supporting role. In general, Jennifer and I are providing information to the special committee and its advisers on our business and our long-term plans as they evaluate the proposal. We do not know if the proposal or any other transaction will be completed or the terms and conditions of such transaction. Further, we do not expect any news until the Special Committee and the company's Board of Directors approved a transaction or the special committee otherwise concludes that further disclosure is appropriate, except as required by law or other regulatory requirements. While this proposal works its way through the process, we will maintain our unwavering focus on our customers and the long-term positioning of the company as we always have.

在這筆交易中，我們，也就是公司和我們的管理團隊，確實起到了支撐作用。總的來說，珍妮佛和我在特別委員會及其顧問評估提案時向他們提供有關我們業務和長期計劃的資訊。我們不知道該提案或任何其他交易是否會完成或此類交易的條款和條件。此外，在特別委員會和公司董事會批准交易或特別委員會得出進一步披露適當的結論之前，我們預計不會有任何消息，除非法律或其他監管要求要求。儘管該提案在整個過程中發揮作用，但我們將一如既往地堅定不移地關注我們的客戶和公司的長期定位。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from the line of Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Kraft。

I wanted to ask you, I guess, it seems as though auto sales are now providing the tailwind that the business needed to return to self-pay net adds. But at least this quarter, it appears that conversion to self-pay wasn't enough to offset the natural increase in vehicle-related churn. So what's your confidence level in that dynamic reversing going forward so the conversions to self-pay will translate into positive self-pay net adds on a sustained basis next year. And maybe related to that, if you could talk about what you're seeing currently in conversion rate and how that's trended versus recent quarters.

我想問你，我想，汽車銷售現在似乎正在為企業恢復自付費用淨增加提供所需的順風車。但至少在本季度，自付費用的轉變似乎不足以抵消與車輛相關的客戶流失的自然成長。那麼，您對未來動態逆轉的信心程度是多少，以便明年向自費的轉換將持續轉化為正的自費淨增加。也許與此相關，如果您能談談您目前在轉換率方面看到的情況以及與最近幾季相比的趨勢。

Sure. Conversion rates have been relatively stable this year, and we continue to see improvements in 360L vehicles. But as we've talked about in the past, what we're trying to solve for with the launch of this new platform, which, of course, comes with streaming first, and then we'll move through our in-car platform next year.

當然。今年的轉換率相對穩定，我們繼續看到 360L 車輛的改進。但正如我們過去所討論的，我們試圖透過推出這個新平台來解決什麼問題，當然，首先是串流媒體，然後我們接下來將通過我們的車載平台年。

But we're trying to solve for these core pain points that we've discussed around discovery, control and pricing. And that's really going to enable us to make a broader impact on conversion rates going forward. We're building improvements in both marketing and on the product side in streaming and in car that will roll out over the course of starting late this year and into next year, but we expect the product to do a lot more work here going forward.

但我們正在努力解決我們圍繞發現、控制和定價討論的這些核心痛點。這確實將使我們能夠對未來的轉換率產生更廣泛的影響。我們正在行銷以及串流媒體和汽車產品方面進行改進，這些改進將從今年年底開始一直持續到明年，但我們預計該產品未來將在這方面做更多的工作。

We've been heavily reliant on direct marketing for our in-car conversion process. But you point out that auto sales seem to be providing a bit more of a tailwind. We have seen that with new and used car trials ticking up a bit, but a lot of the new car side has been propelled by fleet and rental and not on the consumer side. There's still been growth in consumer, but much faster growth on the fleet and rental where we don't participate as much. But we do -- we have seen some improved trends in trials now with the resolution, it seems on the strikes that should provide more momentum going forward.

我們的車內改裝過程一直嚴重依賴直接行銷。但您指出，汽車銷售似乎提供了更多的推動力。我們已經看到，新車和二手車試驗有所增加，但許多新車方面是由車隊和租賃推動的，而不是消費者方面。消費者仍然在成長，但車隊和租賃的成長要快得多，而我們參與得不多。但我們確實 - 我們現在已經看到決議中的試驗趨勢有所改善，看來罷工應該為未來提供更多動力。

We really hadn't seen an impact to our trial starts from the three domestics because they had basically enough inventory on hand to manage through it. But the biggest impact for this year, again, we really hope for a growing auto funnel in both the new and used car side going into next year, but of course, very strong auto sales in the fourth quarter would result in higher-than-expected vehicle-related churn potentially. So that's the only downside, obviously, building the funnel.

我們確實沒有看到這三個國內廠商對我們的試驗開始產生影響，因為他們手邊基本上有足夠的庫存來管理它。但今年最大的影響再次是，我們真的希望明年新車和二手車方面的汽車漏斗都會不斷增長，但當然，第四季度非常強勁的汽車銷售將導致高於 -預期與車輛相關的潛在客戶流失。顯然，這是建立漏斗的唯一缺點。

Our next question is from the line of Jessica Reif Ehrlich with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jessica Reif Ehrlich。

I have a couple of questions. One of the major drivers of future growth seems to be the ability to attract younger users. So just can you talk a little bit about the launch of the new streaming app will move you towards that goal? And what your plans are to adjust the content offering with the launch of the app or not, along those lines or may be slightly different. But we see Spotify pushing into audio books. Is that something that you would consider as well? And then a completely different question, sorry for so much, but just completely different.

我有幾個問題。未來成長的主要驅動力之一似乎是吸引年輕用戶的能力。那麼您能談談新的串流應用程式的推出將推動您實現這一目標嗎？您的計劃是隨著應用程式的啟動或不啟動而調整內容提供，沿著這些思路或可能略有不同。但我們看到 Spotify 正在進軍有聲書領域。這也是你會考慮的事情嗎？然後是一個完全不同的問題，抱歉這麼多，但完全不同。

Your costs were down a lot this quarter. Sales and marketing down 16%. G&A down a lot. So obviously, your margins were great. But is this deferred spending? Or you -- is it more of a permanent cut?

本季您的成本下降了很多。銷售和行銷下降 16%。一般行政費用下降很多。很明顯，你們的利潤很高。但這是遞延支出嗎？或者你——這更像是永久性的切割嗎？

So I'll start and then maybe, Scott, you can jump in on new content and Tom, you can talk about the cost structure. So yes, Jessica, the launch later this year of new streaming apps, will certainly help us address demand with younger audiences. So the objective is to -- because we can move faster in the streaming apps to start there to make sure that we have a very effective product market fit for our growth segments, which we've identified to be about 1/4 of the overall adult audio listening market, they are looking for premium audio experiences and beyond what an on-demand music service might provide.

所以我會開始，然後史考特，你可以加入新內容，湯姆，你可以談談成本結構。所以，是的，傑西卡，今年稍後推出的新串流應用程式肯定會幫助我們滿足年輕觀眾的需求。因此，我們的目標是——因為我們可以在串流媒體應用程式中更快地採取行動，以確保我們擁有一個非常有效的產品市場，適合我們的成長細分市場，我們已確定該市場約佔整體成長的1/4在成人音訊聆聽市場中，他們正在尋找超越點播音樂服務所能提供的優質音訊體驗。

So we have the content largely, we believe we need to have to address these audiences it's just difficult for them today to discover and navigate and to some extent, control the content in the product. And so we actually have a very robust funnel and the younger generations represent a reasonably significant size of our in-car funnel as well as our streaming funnel. So we're bringing the younger consumers into our products. We now just need to better satisfy their needs once they get there. And Scott, do you want to talk more?

因此，我們擁有大量內容，我們相信我們需要滿足這些受眾的需求，但他們今天很難發現和導航並在某種程度上控制產品中的內容。因此，我們實際上擁有一個非常強大的管道，年輕一代代表了我們的車內管道和串流媒體管道的相當大的規模。因此，我們正在將年輕消費者帶入我們的產品中。我們現在只需要在他們到達那裡後更好地滿足他們的需求。史考特，你想再談談嗎？

Sure. So a couple of things, Jessica. When it comes to younger, what often gets overlooked, which I don't think it should, is sports. So that has always attracted a younger audience in particular. And right now, you need six streaming video services to have all the games we broadcast. So that piece is pretty solid. On the music side, there isn't an artist that doesn't either come in or do a guest DJ or one of our artist pop-ups. And as Jennifer mentioned, we can do that almost on an unlimited basis.

當然。有幾件事，潔西卡。當談到年輕人時，經常被忽視的就是體育，我認為這是不應該的。因此，這一直特別吸引年輕觀眾。現在，您需要六個串流影音服務才能播放我們播放的所有比賽。所以說這件作品還是很紮實的。在音樂方面，沒有一位藝術家不來或擔任客座 DJ 或我們的藝術家快閃店之一。正如詹妮弗所提到的，我們幾乎可以無限地做到這一點。

It's a question of can it get out there and be found within our app in other ways. And I think with the new product that will come through on that. When you mentioned audio books and other things, I think the product and other things will let that evolve as it goes. But whether it's comedy, music, politics, there's nothing that doesn't have a younger component to it. In particular, our podcasts. We have many of those and can surface those. It's just a question of a core audience that is well served and now a younger audience that will be served as well, it's just got to be found in a way they're used to finding their content.

問題是它是否可以透過其他方式在我們的應用程式中找到。我認為新產品將會在這方面取得成功。當你提到有聲書和其他東西時，我認為產品和其他東西會讓它不斷發展。但無論是喜劇、音樂或政治，沒有什麼不包含年輕元素的。特別是我們的播客。我們有很多這樣的東西，並且可以將它們浮現出來。這只是一個核心受眾得到良好服務的問題，現在年輕受眾也將得到服務，只需以他們習慣的方式找到內容。

And then Jessica to the last part of your question on cost savings. So the company, obviously, next week is to be launching the next-gen product. And at the same time, we're going through internally an organizational refresh and optimization. As we look at a lot of the processes and leverage technology, we're starting to see savings in a wide variety of areas. Some of them have shown up already. Some of them are dependent on future technology, but we continue internally to focus on innovative ways to enhance our processes. And I think we'll see more savings as we go forward. As I noted in the discussion, we recognized about $40 million worth of with the savings from optimization this quarter, obviously. And then there is some level, as you said, in sales and marketing, there's some level that's deferred to the fourth quarter, but there is $40 million worth of net optimization savings in the quarter. We will have more to come in the next quarter and in the year ahead. So that's the update on...

然後傑西卡回答你關於成本節約問題的最後一部分。因此，顯然該公司將在下週推出下一代產品。同時，我們正在進行內部組織更新和優化。當我們研究大量流程並利用技術時，我們開始看到各個領域都節省了。其中一些已經出現了。其中一些依賴未來的技術，但我們在內部繼續專注於創新方法來增強我們的流程。我認為隨著我們的前進，我們會看到更多的節省。正如我在討論中指出的那樣，我們顯然透過本季的優化節省了約 4000 萬美元的成本。然後，正如您所說，在銷售和行銷方面，有一些水準被推遲到第四季度，但該季度的淨優化節省價值為 4000 萬美元。我們將在下個季度和未來一年推出更多產品。這就是更新...

Yes. I would say, while we're not managing clearly to individual quarters. It's nice to hit a record high EBITDA of $747 million in the third quarter. So we feel good about our ability to continue to generate strong EBITDA margins and cash flow going forward.

是的。我想說的是，雖然我們沒有對各個季度進行明確的管理。第三季 EBITDA 達到 7.47 億美元，創下歷史新高，真是太好了。因此，我們對未來繼續產生強勁的 EBITDA 利潤率和現金流的能力感到滿意。

Our next question is coming from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的史蒂文·卡霍爾 (Steven Cahall)。

First, just wanted to understand next week's next-generation product launch, [MITs] I think what you talked about for the 360L conversion for Android Auto. So are there two kind of app-based updates or improvements coming? I think that the current Android Auto apps has had a lot of not so positive consumer feedback. So are current customers getting that update plus then you'll have a next-gen update more targeted at streaming-only subs. So just trying to understand that dynamic. And then for years, SiriusXM subscription ARPU usually grew at an inflationary rate. We've seen a lot of direct-to-consumer and streaming services take up price over the last 12 months. Your ARPU has flattened out. I know there is some mix in there as well. So how do we think about SiriusXM subscription ARPU over the longer term, especially as you move to a bigger digital component within that?

首先，我只是想了解下週的下一代產品發布，[MIT] 我想您談到了 Android Auto 的 360L 轉換。那麼是否會有兩種基於應用程式的更新或改進即將推出？我認為目前的 Android Auto 應用程式有很多不太積極的消費者回饋。那麼，當前的客戶是否會獲得該更新，那麼您將獲得更針對僅串流的子系統的下一代更新。所以只是想了解這種動態。然後多年來，SiriusXM 訂閱 ARPU 通常以通貨膨脹率成長。在過去 12 個月裡，我們看到許多直接面向消費者的服務和串流媒體服務的價格都在上漲。您的 ARPU 已趨於平緩。我知道裡面也有一些混合。那麼，從長遠來看，我們如何看待 SiriusXM 訂閱 ARPU，尤其是當您轉向更大的數位組件時？

Sure. We'll have a lot more to say, Stephen, about what's launching and when next week. So hopefully, you'll tune in for that. But there are a couple of parts to your question. So late this year, we'll be launching our new streaming apps, and that will be across iOS and Android. And those will serve both our existing in-car subscribers who are streaming as well as new streaming subscribers and they'll roll out over the course of a few weeks. And then we'll also be updated -- so those will also have updated CarPlay and Android auto instances. So they can be used, obviously, in the car or outside of the car. We did announce it earlier in my comments that we are launching our first instance of Android Automotive operating system with SiriusXM this year. That's 360L based, and it's an integrated solution in car.

當然。史蒂芬，我們將有更多關於下週推出的內容和時間的內容。希望您能關注這一點。但你的問題有幾個部分。今年晚些時候，我們將推出新的串流媒體應用程序，該應用程式將跨越 iOS 和 Android。這些服務將為我們現有的車載串流訂閱者以及新的串流媒體訂閱者提供服務，並將在幾週內推出。然後我們也會更新——所以這些也會更新 CarPlay 和 Android auto 實例。因此，顯然它們可以在車內或車外使用。我們之前在評論中確實宣布，今年我們將透過 SiriusXM 推出我們的第一個 Android Automotive 作業系統實例。那是基於360L的，它是汽車中的整合解決方案。

And that's different and going to be rolling out over time. And of course, it will take the form of a typical automotive rollout. We do believe AAOS will ultimately be the vast majority of the OEM implementations, but clearly, the automakers are taking different paths there. And we want to make sure that we are part of whatever technology architecture the OEM chooses to use. So on an integrated basis, clearly, 360L is the best consumer product in car in terms of taking advantage of satellite and IP, and AAOS will allow us to do a lot more going forward by updating the experience more frequently.

這是不同的，並且會隨著時間的推移而推出。當然，它將採取典型的汽車推廣形式。我們確實相信 AAOS 最終將成為絕大多數 OEM 實施的一部分，但顯然，汽車製造商正在採取不同的路徑。我們希望確保我們成為 OEM 選擇使用的任何技術架構的一部分。因此，在綜合基礎上，顯然，就利用衛星和 IP 而言，360L 是汽車中最好的消費產品，而 AAOS 將使我們能夠透過更頻繁地更新體驗來做得更多。

We said earlier that we're going to have our first instance of ignition on recommendations. Recommendations, whether it's in 360L or in our apps, is one of the core features to enhancing subscription value and retention. And so that will start to come in 360L with AAOS and in other instances of 360L as we move into next year. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of sense as to how we're rolling this out, start to streaming apps first, and that we will have regular updates to those apps, of course, going forward. And then there'll be improvements to our in-car technology over time, consistent with how we've rolled those out in the past. And Tom, do you want to talk a little bit about ARPU?

我們之前說過，我們將根據建議進行第一個點火實例。推薦，無論是在 360L 還是我們的應用程式中，都是提高訂閱價值和保留率的核心功能之一。因此，隨著明年的到來，這將開始出現在具有 AAOS 的 360L 以及 360L 的其他實例中。因此，希望這能讓您對我們如何推出這一功能有所了解，首先開始串流應用程序，當然，我們將定期更新這些應用程式。隨著時間的推移，我們的車載技術將會得到改進，這與我們過去推出這些技術的方式一致。 Tom，你想談談 ARPU 嗎？

So just looking at on the Pandora side, we actually did on Pandora Plus to a price increase in September, and we will be doing a price increase premium coming next coming next year. But as far as overall ARPU, what we have is the increase in self-pay promotional plans has obviously been a drag on the overall ARPU. But the price increase from the March price increase is driven up the ARPU, but has been offset by the promotional plans and some level of rate as it relates to the OEMs.

因此，僅看 Pandora 方面，我們實際上在 9 月對 Pandora Plus 進行了提價，明年我們將進行溢價提價。但就整體ARPU而言，自費促銷計畫的增加顯然對整體ARPU產生了拖累。但與 3 月份價格上漲相比，價格上漲推高了 ARPU，但已被促銷計劃和與 OEM 相關的一定水平的費率所抵消。

So we're balancing the price increase as we continue to look and as we look at the launch next week in our pricing model, we're looking at balancing obviously the pricing model and then the economics of the plans that the trial plans that we're continuing to address.

因此，當我們繼續關注時，當我們在定價模型中考慮下週的發佈時，我們正在平衡價格上漲，我們正在考慮平衡定價模型，然後是我們試驗計劃的計劃的經濟性。

Yes. I'd say on the series side, there's no difference in how we're using promotional plans to attract and retain customers as we have in the past. I think the rate increase that Tom referenced was a bit narrower in scope than ones we've done in the past, we haven't addressed the promotional plans there. And he also referenced the lower OEM paid trial revenue, which is just a function of our continued negotiation and extension of our deals with automakers and doesn't necessarily reflect a specific path on the economics. Overall, we still believe that -- we are driving improved economics, especially as you include increased pen rates through those deals.

是的。我想說，在系列方面，我們使用促銷計劃來吸引和留住客戶的方式與過去沒有什麼不同。我認為湯姆提到的加息範圍比我們過去所做的要窄一些，我們還沒有討論那裡的促銷計劃。他也提到了原始設備製造商付費試用收入的降低，這只是我們與汽車製造商持續談判和延長交易的結果，並不一定反映具體的經濟路徑。總的來說，我們仍然相信——我們正在推動經濟改善，特別是當你透過這些交易增加筆費時。

And I think as we've said in the past, it's not about ARPU specifically. We obviously follow the metric, but it's an output. We believe very much that there is an opportunity to grow subscribers by getting them into the content they want and perhaps at lower price points. And that could be for less content or just streaming packages, but we also see an opportunity to enhance the value of our subscriptions for our core segments and subscribers to support ongoing rate increases in the future. So I don't know how that nets out necessarily in terms of ARPU, but I definitely feel good about our opportunity to improve revenue overall.

我認為正如我們過去所說，這與 ARPU 無關。我們顯然遵循指標，但它是一個輸出。我們非常相信，有機會透過讓訂戶接觸他們想要的內容並且也許以更低的價格來增加訂戶。這可能是為了減少內容或只是串流媒體套餐，但我們也看到了一個機會，可以提高我們的核心細分市場和訂閱者的訂閱價值，以支持未來持續的費率成長。因此，我不知道這對 ARPU 有何影響，但我絕對對我們提高整體收入的機會感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡梅倫·曼森-佩羅內。

Two, if I can. First on, Pandora gross margins, good improvement for the first time in a couple of years there. I was wondering if you could help us understand what's driving that? I know you highlighted improving broadcast economics, but I was wondering, are we at the point now where the OffNet business is accretive to overall gross margins at Pandora. And then one on the reiterated guidance. The EBITDA came in obviously at record levels this year. I think the implied 4Q EBITDA margin is a decent downtick from the last couple of quarters in light of the cost saving success that you guys have had, I was wondering if you could provide some color just on what is implied by the full year guidance in terms of 4Q?

兩個，如果可以的話。首先，潘朵拉的毛利率幾年來首次出現良好改善。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解是什麼推動了這一點？我知道您強調了廣播經濟的改善，但我想知道，我們現在是否處於 OffNet 業務增加 Pandora 整體毛利率的階段。然後是重申的指引。今年的 EBITDA 顯然達到了創紀錄的水平。我認為，鑑於你們在成本節約方面取得的成功，隱含的第四季度EBITDA 利潤率比過去幾個季度有相當大的下降，我想知道你們是否可以就全年指導所隱含的內容提供一些說明。

Yes, I'll take the first one on Pandora gross margin. So it is as we highlighted in earlier comments just about improving podcast economics primarily. And this is really a function of driving improved advertising revenue on the podcasting side. So I believe you said, we were up 28% in the third quarter. We continue to grow faster than the overall market on the podcast advertising revenue. And given the structure of the deals, a lot of that falls through to gross margin. And we just continue to expect improving monetization on the podcasting front. We have brought a lot of brands into the space based on our relationships at Pandora, and we're bringing more and more solutions that brands are looking for, whether it's better targeting and identification of users, which is very challenging when the listening is happening over multiple platforms, or its brand suitability and safety solutions as well. So that's the primary driver there. Tom, do you want to...

是的，我將選擇潘朵拉毛利率的第一個。正如我們在先前的評論中所強調的那樣，主要是改善播客經濟。這確實是推動播客方面廣告收入提升的功能。所以我相信你說過，我們第三季成長了 28%。我們的播客廣告收入成長速度持續快於整體市場。考慮到交易的結構，其中很大一部分都會影響毛利率。我們只是繼續期望播客方面的獲利能力會得到改善。基於我們在潘朵拉的關係，我們已經將許多品牌帶入這個領域，並且我們正在帶來越來越多的品牌正在尋找的解決方案，無論是更好地定位和識別用戶，這在傾聽時非常具有挑戰性在多個平台上，或其品牌適用性和安全解決方案。這就是主要驅動力。湯姆，你想...

Yes, sure. Thanks, Cameron, for the question. As far as our guidance, when you look at EBITDA for the full year, we have guidance of $2.75 billion. The reality is we focus on being approximately. And so with each of the metrics, there is some level of variability around the metric and the guidance we gave. But we look at the quarters and then when you look at the fourth quarter on EBITDA, obviously, as you've seen this year, there's higher royalties and we have talked about the marketing that's being pushed to the fourth quarter and cost optimization. But overall, with each of them, I would focus on the approximately side of it. And I would just say that each of them have variability above and below the target.

是的，當然。謝謝卡梅倫提出的問題。就我們的指導而言，當您查看全年 EBITDA 時，我們的指引為 27.5 億美元。現實是我們專注於近似。因此，對於每個指標，指標和我們提供的指導都存在一定程度的可變性。但我們看一下季度，然後當你看第四季度的 EBITDA 時，顯然，正如你今年所看到的，特許權使用費更高，我們已經討論了推到第四季度的營銷和成本優化。但總的來說，對於每個人，我都會注意其大致的一面。我只想說，它們中的每一個都有高於和低於目標的可變性。

Yes. And just because there is so much uncertainty in advertising right now, and I think about where we were sitting this time last year, and we were expecting a recovery as we move through this year. And we really -- we've seen some slow progress, but it hasn't materialized at the level that we certainly expected it would. And now it looks like it's going to be '24 really before we start to see any improvement. So given that uncertainty, fourth quarter is the biggest quarter for revenue -- for ad revenue for us and revenue overall. So I would just say we're very clearly, like Tom said, looking at $9 billion as approximate and likely a ceiling on revenue.

是的。只是因為現在廣告業存在太多不確定性，我想到去年這個時候我們的處境，我們預期今年會出現復甦。我們確實看到了一些緩慢的進展，但它並沒有達到我們預期的水平。現在看起來要等到 24 年後我們才能開始看到任何改進。因此，考慮到這種不確定性，第四季是收入最大的季度——對於我們的廣告收入和整體收入而言。所以我只想說，正如湯姆所說，我們非常明確地將 90 億美元視為收入上限，並且可能是收入上限。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Bazinet with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Bazinet。

In response to an earlier question, you mentioned three pain points, discovery, control and pricing that exist on the platform today. Do you mind just unpacking a little bit either research or anecdotes that give you that give you confidence that those are pain points today that you can solve with the next-gen rollout?

在回答先前的問題時，您提到了當今平台上存在的三個痛點：發現、控制和定價。您是否介意稍微解開一些研究或軼事，讓您相信這些是今天的痛點，您可以透過下一代推出來解決？

Sure. Yes. We've done a lot, Jason, on this front in terms of research and even just testing to better understand where the constraints are in terms of bringing people into our subscriptions. And on the discovery and control side, it's discovery, we talked a lot about, right? We have an incredible set of content. Our subscribers are very passionate about whatever it is, right? Their favorite music channel, whether it's TikTok or Beetles or even the Billy Joel pop-up or the sports that Scott highlighted, we have such passion around the content we have, but people can't find it.

當然。是的。傑森，我們在這方面做了很多研究，甚至只是進行測試，以便更好地了解在吸引人們加入我們的訂閱方面存在哪些限制。在發現和控制方面，我們談論了很多，對吧？我們擁有一系列令人難以置信的內容。我們的訂閱者對任何事物都充滿熱情，對吧？他們最喜歡的音樂頻道，無論是 TikTok 還是 Beetles，甚至是 Billy Joel 快閃廣告還是 Scott 強調的體育頻道，我們對我們擁有的內容充滿熱情，但人們找不到它。

And I've talked about this before, that the model that we've always had as you get into the car and you turn the dial, right? And we need to build an engagement platform and a set of products that facilitate discovery without having to do all of that work, just like other streaming products. And so a lot of that is keyed on our improvements in recommendations, which is coming through in 360L, slowly but surely, and we'll definitely have improvements across recommendations and our streaming apps, and that whole engine will go to support the suite of our products overall. So discovery is key because you get people into the content they love and then surround them with recommendations as to other content, they will also like. And Scott touched a lot on that.

我之前已經談過這一點，當你進入汽車並轉動旋鈕時，我們一直擁有的模型，對嗎？我們需要建立一個參與平台和一組促進發現的產品，而無需像其他串流媒體產品一樣完成所有這些工作。因此，這很大程度上取決於我們在推薦方面的改進，這正在 360L 中緩慢但肯定地實現，我們肯定會在推薦和我們的串流應用程式方面進行改進，整個引擎將支援套件我們的產品整體。因此，發現是關鍵，因為你讓人們了解他們喜歡的內容，然後向他們推薦他們也會喜歡的其他內容。斯科特對此談了很多。

Control is not about a fully interactive music service, but also providing customers with better idea as to how you can control the content that we have. We do have channels where you can skip songs, for instance. And also, we'll have new features, which, again, will preview some of this next week. New features that allow customers who may have, we believe, may have gotten to a point and listening to a certain channel where they want something new, and we'll be able to put them into something else that's very similar in an easier way. So there is improved discovery and control in the products and pricing.

Control 並不是完全互動的音樂服務，而是為客戶提供更好的想法，讓您了解如何控制我們擁有的內容。例如，我們確實有可以跳過歌曲的頻道。此外，我們還將推出新功能，下週將再次預覽其中的一些功能。我們相信，新功能可以讓那些可能已經達到一定程度並收聽某個頻道的客戶想要新的東西，我們將能夠以更簡單的方式將他們放入其他非常相似的東西中。因此，產品和定價的發現和控制得到了改善。

This is really about making sure that we have a broad set of products at different price points or packages at different price points, and some of those will have reduced content to be able to attract younger consumers who may, in fact, look at us as a complementary product to a music on-demand service. We've always been complementary in some ways to consumers' music collections. And now oftentimes, consumers are using on-demand music to solve for that need. But are human-curated set of content, whether it's music or the broad set of nonmusic content we have is really critical to many of our subscribers and prospects who are looking for something else in audio to complement what they have on the music side.

這實際上是為了確保我們擁有一系列不同價位的產品或不同價位的包裝，其中一些產品將減少內容，以吸引年輕的消費者，他們實際上可能將我們視為音樂點播服務的補充產品。我們一直在某些方面對消費者的音樂收藏進行補充。現在，消費者經常使用點播音樂來滿足這種需求。但是，人類策劃的內容集，無論是音樂還是我們擁有的廣泛的非音樂內容，對於我們的許多訂閱者和潛在客戶來說都非常重要，他們正在尋找音頻中的其他內容來補充他們在音樂方面的內容。

Our next question is from the line of Barton Crockett with Rosenblatt.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barton Crockett 和 Rosenblatt。

I was interested if you could give us a little bit more kind of detail around your penetration rates. I know you talked about getting into the F-150 trucks. What is your penetration now of new car production? And also where are we on the 360L kind of penetration? So that's one question. And then you outlined kind of your CapEx essentially trending long term towards zero. In that environment, what are you contemplating in terms of the consolidation of the satellite constellations at this point long term? And what is kind of the maintenance level of CapEx that will remain? I know you have ground repeater networks and the like. If you could elaborate on that, it would be helpful.

我很感興趣您能否向我們提供有關滲透率的更多詳細資訊。我知道您談到進入 F-150 卡車。你們現在新車生產的滲透率是多少？我們的 360L 穿透力處於什麼水準？這是一個問題。然後您概述了您的資本支出從長期來看基本上趨向於零。在這種環境下，您在長期整合衛星星座方面有何考慮？資本支出的維持水準如何？我知道你們有地面中繼網路之類的。如果您能詳細說明這一點，將會很有幫助。

Sure. So first on pen rates overall, we're still in the low 80s on pen rates and have come down a little bit this year related to growing stand-alone EV penetration rates and then some minor disruptions from a supply standpoint still on individual models. But yes, we like the position we have going forward with the F-150. Ford has always been a very strong partner, and that is one of our highest converting vehicles. So it will be nice to be standard there as well. And we have work to do on the stand-alone EVs, and I'm still hopeful we'll have something to talk about in the future with the single biggest one out there. But nothing else that's driving any real change in penetration rates going forward.

當然。因此，首先就整體筆率而言，我們的筆率仍處於80 多歲的低位，並且今年略有下降，這與獨立電動車滲透率的增長有關，然後從供應角度來看，個別車型仍然存在一些輕微的中斷。但是，是的，我們喜歡 F-150 的未來發展方向。福特一直是非常強大的合作夥伴，這是我們轉換率最高的車輛之一。因此，如果能成為那裡的標準也很好。我們在獨立電動車方面還有工作要做，我仍然希望我們將來能與最大的電動車進行一些討論。但沒有其他因素能夠推動未來滲透率有任何真正的改變。

On the 360L penetration rate, we're at about 35% of current vehicle sales that have 360L and that will continue to obviously increase over time as we roll out. What's also really key there is making sure that they are fully featured as possible. And so we're watching very closely the penetration rate of those 360L vehicles in terms of their broad set of capabilities. And that's only going to improve with the launch of AAOS and Tom, on CapEx?

就 360L 滲透率而言，目前 360L 車輛銷售的 35% 左右，隨著我們的推出，這一比例將繼續大幅增加。真正關鍵的是確保它們盡可能具有完整的功能。因此，我們正在密切關注這些 360L 車輛的廣泛功能的滲透率。隨著 AAOS 和 Tom 的推出，這種情況只會在資本支出上得到改善嗎？

So on CapEx, obviously, we gave you the schedule. Out on the satellite, the non-sat CapEx. We said, obviously, this year, we're doing heavily investment. Next year, we'll be doing heavy on the investment. But I believe it's somewhere in the $350 million to $400 million range this year. And we will continue as we refresh our repeater network, we will continue to obviously put capital into the non-sat CapEx going forward.

因此，在資本支出方面，顯然，我們給了您時間表。在衛星上，非衛星資本支出。我們說過，顯然，今年我們正在進行大量投資。明年，我們將加大投資力道。但我相信今年的金額在 3.5 億至 4 億美元之間。當我們更新中繼器網路時，我們將繼續將資金投入非衛星資本支出。

Yes. I think the free cash flow profile is very strong going forward. And that has a lot to do with what Tom highlighted on the satellite side, and us eventually getting to zero by 2028, and we could be at that level rule for several years following but also improving taxes and working capital also contribute to ongoing growth and free cash flow. Thank you.

是的。我認為未來的自由現金流狀況非常強勁。這與湯姆在衛星方面強調的有很大關係，我們最終到 2028 年將實現零排放，我們可能會在接下來的幾年內保持這一水平，但改善稅收和營運資本也有助於持續增長和自由現金流。謝謝。

Our next and final question comes from Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個也是最後一個問題來自高盛的 Stephen Laszczyk。

First, maybe for Jennifer. There's been a lot of focus on the health of the consumer heading into the end of the year. I would just be curious if you could update us on what you're seeing in some of the real-time indicators that you track on the consumer front, whether that's voluntary or non-pay churn or the uptake of certain packages and what you think that speak to in terms of the health of the consumer heading into year end? And then just quickly on the audio on the auto strike just with it being over, any impacts that we should be mindful of in terms of the trajectory of trials or equipment costs heading into the fourth quarter or next year would be helpful.

首先，也許是為了珍妮佛。進入年底，消費者的健康受到了許多關注。我只是好奇您能否向我們介紹您在消費者方面跟踪的一些實時指標中所看到的最新情況，無論是自願還是非付費流失，還是某些套餐的使用情況以及您的想法這與年底消費者的健康狀況有關嗎？然後，在汽車罷工剛結束的音訊中，我們應該注意的任何對進入第四季度或明年的試驗軌跡或設備成本的影響都會有所幫助。

Sure, Stephen. So on the auto strike, really no -- nothing material to say on that in terms of trials or other metrics. So I think we should be fine on that front going forward. On the health of the consumer, we have seen really strong just overall consumer confidence and retail spending. As you know, despite the fact that savings have fallen quite a bit. auto default rates have been up year-over-year, but they're certainly not where they were pre-COVID. But for us, there's really not been any discernible increase in our non-pay credit card entry rates, which is sort of our best leading indicator satisfaction continues to be above last year's level. And overall, our voluntary and non-pay so taking vehicle-related out for a second.

當然，史蒂芬。因此，關於汽車罷工，真的沒有——在試驗或其他指標方面沒有什麼可說的。所以我認為我們在這方面應該會進展順利。在消費者的健康方面，我們看到整體消費者信心和零售支出非常強勁。如您所知，儘管儲蓄大幅下降。汽車違約率逐年上升，但肯定不是新冠疫情爆發前的水平。但對我們來說，我們的非付費信用卡使用率確實沒有任何明顯的成長，這是我們最好的領先指標滿意度仍然高於去年的水平。總的來說，我們是自願的、無償的，所以先把與車輛相關的事情排除在外。

Voluntary and non-pay have been very consistently at about 1% churn for several quarters now, give or take, a few basis points in either direction. But obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty heading into next year about possible recession. When is the recovery happening for advertising and then just the general health of the consumer. So it's something we're watching closely, clearly, as we close out the year.

現在幾個季度以來，自願和非付費的流失率一直非常穩定，約為 1%，無論朝哪個方向都有幾個基點。但顯然，明年可能出現的經濟衰退存在許多不確定性。廣告何時會復甦，消費者的整體健康狀況何時會復甦。因此，在今年結束之際，我們正在密切、明確地關注這一點。

Thanks, everybody, for participating today. We'll speak to you soon.

謝謝大家今天的參與。我們很快就會與您聯繫。