Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Shake Shack Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call.

    歡迎來到 Shake Shack 2019 年第四季度財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)請注意,正在錄製此會議。

  • I will now turn the conference over to your host, Melissa Calandruccio, Investor Relations.

    我現在將會議轉交給您的主持人,投資者關係部的 Melissa Calandruccio。

  • Melissa Eve Calandruccio - SVP

    Melissa Eve Calandruccio - SVP

  • Thank you, Darryl, and good evening, everyone.

    謝謝你,達里爾,大家晚上好。

  • Joining me for Shake Shack's conference call is our CEO, Randy Garutti; and President and CFO, Tara Comonte.

    和我一起參加 Shake Shack 電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 Randy Garutti;總裁兼首席財務官 Tara Comonte。

  • During today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論非 GAAP 財務指標,我們認為這對評估我們的業績很有用。

  • The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

    不應孤立地考慮提供此附加信息或替代根據 GAAP 編制的結果。

  • Reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release and the appendix of our supplemental materials.

    我們的收益發布和補充材料的附錄中提供了與可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬。

  • Some of today's statements may be forward-looking, and actual results may differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K filed earlier today.

    今天的一些聲明可能是前瞻性的,實際結果可能會因許多風險和不確定性而存在重大差異,包括我們今天早些時候提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中討論的風險和不確定性。

  • Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if our views change.

    任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今日的觀點,如果我們的觀點發生變化,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • By now, you should have access to our fourth quarter 2019 earnings release, which can be found at investor.shakeshack.com in the News section.

    到目前為止,您應該可以訪問我們 2019 年第四季度的收益發布,可以在 investor.shakeshack.com 的新聞部分找到。

  • Additionally, we have posted our fourth quarter 2019 supplemental earnings material, which can be found in the Events and Presentations section on our site or as an exhibit to our 8-K for the quarter.

    此外,我們還發布了 2019 年第四季度的補充收益材料,可以在我們網站的“活動和演示”部分找到,也可以作為本季度 8-K 的展覽。

  • Please note, there was an error in our guidance on Page 18 as it relates to our swap outlook, which has since been corrected in our supplemental materials.

    請注意,我們在第 18 頁的指南中存在錯誤,因為它與我們的掉期展望有關,此錯誤已在我們的補充材料中得到糾正。

  • I will now turn the call over to Randy.

    我現在將把電話轉給蘭迪。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Melissa.

    謝謝,梅麗莎。

  • Good evening, everyone.

    各位晚上好。

  • 2019 was another milestone year for growth at Shake Shack, increasing total revenue by almost 30% to $595 million; and system-wide sales by 33% to nearly $900 million.

    2019 年是 Shake Shack 增長的又一個里程碑年,總收入增長近 30%,達到 5.95 億美元;全系統銷售額增長 33%,達到近 9 億美元。

  • Our same-Shack sales growth for the full year was 1.3%, and we delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of 11% to $82 million while continuing to strategically invest for the significant growth that lies ahead.

    我們全年的同店銷售額增長 1.3%,調整後的 EBITDA 增長 11% 至 8200 萬美元,同時繼續為未來的顯著增長進行戰略投資。

  • We opened our largest class of Shacks ever, with 73 across the globe, and a total of 49 of those here in the United States.

    我們開設了有史以來規模最大的 Shacks 班級,全球有 73 家,其中美國共有 49 家。

  • Of the 73 total, 39 were company-operated and 34 licensed, strategically expanding our footprint in current markets across New York City, California, New Jersey, Boston, Texas, the Midwest and more.

    在總共 73 家公司中,39 家由公司運營,34 家獲得許可,戰略性地擴大了我們在紐約市、加利福尼亞州、新澤西州、波士頓、德克薩斯州、中西部等地當前市場的足跡。

  • We also launched in a number of new markets, including New Orleans, Salt Lake City and Columbus.

    我們還在許多新市場推出產品,包括新奧爾良、鹽湖城和哥倫布。

  • In the most significant year-to-date for our licensed business, we grew revenue by 45% through the strength of our current regions while unlocking major new domestic and international markets, opening for the first time in Shanghai, Mexico City, Singapore and Manila, each to an incredible guest reception.

    在我們的特許經營業務迄今為止最重要的一年裡,我們憑藉現有地區的優勢使收入增長了 45%,同時開拓了主要的新國內和國際市場,首次在上海、墨西哥城、新加坡和馬尼拉開設了市場,每一個都令人難以置信的客人接待。

  • It's a reminder of the global strength and potential of this brand.

    它提醒人們注意這個品牌的全球實力和潛力。

  • We also opened our Hong Kong office to support our growth in Asia, and it's been a game changer to have our team on the ground working closer with our partners to grow and manage this dynamic region.

    我們還開設了香港辦事處以支持我們在亞洲的發展,讓我們的團隊在當地與我們的合作夥伴更緊密地合作以發展和管理這個充滿活力的地區,這已經改變了遊戲規則。

  • We also made the tough decision at the end of the fourth quarter to exit the Russian market due to the persistent macroeconomic and supply chain challenges we've experienced over our 6 years in the region.

    由於我們在該地區 6 年來一直面臨的宏觀經濟和供應鏈挑戰,我們還在第四季度末做出了退出俄羅斯市場的艱難決定。

  • I'd like to highlight those many areas of progress across the business in 2019.

    我想強調 2019 年整個業務取得的許多進展。

  • This is a people-first company, and it always will be.

    這是一家以人為本的公司,而且永遠如此。

  • We're committed to nurturing our culture, investing in our team's development and providing opportunities for a successful career in the restaurant business.

    我們致力於培養我們的文化,投資於我們團隊的發展,並為在餐飲業取得成功的職業生涯提供機會。

  • Taking care of each other is the core of enlightened hospitality for a reason and a founding principle of the company, one we proudly aspire to live every day.

    相互照顧是開明待客之道的核心,也是公司的一項創始原則,我們每天都自豪地渴望實現這一點。

  • In the past year, we formally launched our diversity and inclusion program called All-In, which encompasses our growing mentor program, the evaluation and direction of our inclusive work practices, celebration of our diverse workforce, benefits programs, diversity training and much more.

    在過去的一年裡,我們正式啟動了名為 All-In 的多元化和包容性計劃,其中包括我們不斷發展的導師計劃、對我們包容性工作實踐的評估和指導、慶祝我們多元化的員工隊伍、福利計劃、多元化培訓等等。

  • We're proud of the All-In initiative and to be a company of leaders training future leaders.

    我們為 All-In 倡議感到自豪,並成為一家培養未來領導者的領導者公司。

  • In 2019, we promoted over 1,600 individuals around the company, of whom almost 60% were women.

    2019 年,我們在公司範圍內提拔了 1,600 多人,其中近 60% 是女性。

  • With All-In, we're ensuring that diversity inclusion is a strategic imperative that is an ongoing positive impact on our organization and teams as a whole.

    通過 All-In,我們確保多元化包容成為戰略要務,對我們的組織和整個團隊產生持續的積極影響。

  • We also continue to test a 4-day work week for our Shack managers.

    我們還繼續為我們的 Shack 經理測試 4 天工作週。

  • Right now it's operational in about 1/3 of our Shacks, and we're encouraged by the feedback and early results.

    現在它在大約 1/3 的 Shacks 中運行,我們對反饋和早期結果感到鼓舞。

  • It appears to be contributing to an increase in applicants and, notably, an increase in female applicants.

    它似乎有助於申請人數的增加,尤其是女性申請人數的增加。

  • We'll continue to monitor the program over the coming months as we seek to create a balanced and fulfilling personal and professional lifestyle for our leaders.

    在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將繼續關注該計劃,力求為我們的領導者創造一種平衡、充實的個人和職業生活方式。

  • Let me turn to 2019, to our menu.

    讓我談談 2019 年的菜單。

  • In 2019, we chose to limit our menu innovation in comparison to prior years as we focused on the launch of Chick'n Bites, now a core menu item in 2020.

    2019 年,與往年相比,我們選擇限制菜單創新,因為我們專注於推出 Chick'n Bites,現在是 2020 年的核心菜單項。

  • We believe Chick'n Bites have a variety of use cases and attach opportunities as an add-on for a group to share, trade up or ordered on their own.

    我們相信 Chick'n Bites 有多種用例,並附加機會作為一個附加組件,供一組人分享、交易或自己訂購。

  • We're seeing the transactions containing Bites generally carry a higher average check.

    我們看到包含 Bites 的交易通常進行更高的平均支票。

  • And this, along with guest feedback and overall positive sales performance, encouraged us to move them to the core menu while still monitoring ongoing performance.

    這一點,連同客人的反饋和整體積極的銷售業績,鼓勵我們將它們移至核心菜單,同時仍然監控持續的績效。

  • We're excited to ramp up menu innovation in 2020.

    我們很高興在 2020 年加強菜單創新。

  • Let's talk about our Shacks and the experiences we're building.

    讓我們談談我們的 Shacks 和我們正在打造的體驗。

  • As we grow and innovate our design and real estate process, we're exploring and testing various formats in addition to those we've already successfully built.

    隨著我們的發展和創新我們的設計和房地產流程,除了我們已經成功構建的格式之外,我們還在探索和測試各種格式。

  • As just a few examples.

    僅舉幾個例子。

  • Today, we have 3 premier food court locations, 4 outlet center Shacks, and we're testing a smaller urban footprint Shack in Midtown Manhattan.

    今天,我們擁有 3 個一流的美食廣場位置、4 個奧特萊斯中心 Shacks,並且我們正在曼哈頓中城測試一個較小的城市足跡 Shack。

  • This particular Shack has limited seating and is focused on convenience, with in-Shack kiosk ordering.

    這個特殊的 Shack 座位有限,專注於便利,在 Shack 亭內訂購。

  • And it's geared towards reducing friction in the guest experience with a separate digital pickup area for app, web and delivery.

    它旨在通過一個單獨的應用程序、網絡和交付數字取貨區來減少客戶體驗中的摩擦。

  • We believe that a multi-format strategy will allow us to explore opportunities to, at times, deliver high levels of profitability and investment returns, whether due to cost to build or level of operating profitability.

    我們相信,多格式戰略將使我們能夠探索機會,有時可以提供高水平的盈利能力和投資回報,無論是由於建設成本還是運營盈利水平。

  • And with fewer than 200 Shacks in the U.S. today, we've got lots of testing and learning ahead.

    今天在美國祇有不到 200 個 Shacks,我們需要進行大量的測試和學習。

  • 2019 was also a year of continuing to build out our digital capabilities with ongoing improvements to our app, web ordering, our delivery offering and the further rollout of kiosks.

    2019 年也是通過不斷改進我們的應用程序、網絡訂購、我們的送貨服務和自助服務亭的進一步推出,繼續構建我們的數字能力的一年。

  • We're really optimistic about digital and everything it represents in terms of our ability to better understand, connect with and meet the needs of our guests.

    就我們更好地理解、聯繫和滿足客人需求的能力而言,我們對數字及其所代表的一切都非常樂觀。

  • And so it will take time, investment and evolution, and we believe we're laying the fundamental groundwork to deliver sales growth over the coming years.

    因此,這需要時間、投資和發展,我們相信我們正在為未來幾年實現銷售增長奠定基礎。

  • Overall, 2019 was our biggest year ever in unit openings, total revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

    總體而言,2019 年是我們有史以來在單位開業、總收入和調整後 EBITDA 方面表現最好的一年。

  • That said, the fourth quarter was our toughest quarterly compare, and traffic overall was below our expectations.

    也就是說,第四季度是我們最艱難的季度比較,總體流量低於我們的預期。

  • Tara will take you through the drivers behind that and our 2020 guidance in a moment.

    稍後,Tara 將帶您了解背後的驅動因素和我們的 2020 年指南。

  • After that, I'll share our 2020 strategic priorities, which support our long-term vision committed to delivering compelling top and bottom line growth as we expand our footprint around the world.

    之後,我將分享我們 2020 年的戰略重點,這些重點支持我們的長期願景,即隨著我們在全球範圍內擴大業務範圍,實現引人注目的收入和利潤增長。

  • Now Tara will take you through the result of the quarter.

    現在,塔拉將帶您了解本季度的結果。

  • Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

    Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

  • Thank you, Randy.

    謝謝你,蘭迪。

  • As you just heard, we're pleased with another year of strong growth in 2019, delivering $594.5 million in total revenue, positive same-Shack sales growth and a 10.8% increase in adjusted EBITDA, albeit with a challenging fourth quarter to end the year.

    正如您剛剛聽到的那樣,我們很高興 2019 年又是強勁增長的一年,總收入達到 5.945 億美元,Shack 銷售額正增長,調整後 EBITDA 增長 10.8%,儘管今年第四季度充滿挑戰.

  • We do expect certain aspects of the business to remain under pressure throughout some of this coming year.

    我們確實預計,在來年的某些時候,業務的某些方面將繼續面臨壓力。

  • During the fourth quarter, same-Shack sales decreased 3.6%, consisting of a 1.8% increase in price/mix, offset by a 5.4% decline in traffic.

    第四季度,same-Shack 銷售額下降 3.6%,其中價格/組合增長 1.8%,被流量下降 5.4% 所抵消。

  • Of the many things going on in the business right now, delivery is one impacting both comp and overall sales performance.

    在目前業務中發生的許多事情中,交付是影響薪酬和整體銷售業績的一件事。

  • In August, we announced our decision to move ahead with Grubhub as a single partner for integrated marketed delivery.

    8 月,我們宣布決定繼續與 Grubhub 合作,將其作為集成營銷交付的單一合作夥伴。

  • Our forward momentum continues in that important partnership, although as we've shared, it's not without its expected impact to sales, individual market challenges and resulting volatility.

    我們在這一重要合作夥伴關係中的前進勢頭仍在繼續,儘管正如我們所分享的那樣,它並非沒有對銷售、個別市場挑戰和由此產生的波動產生預期影響。

  • With the tech integration complete in Q4, we had originally planned for a speedier move to full exclusivity.

    隨著第 4 季度技術整合的完成,我們原本計劃更快地轉向完全獨家經營。

  • Instead, we decided to transition on a market-by-market basis, testing and assessing various marketing strategies to transition Shacks brands over from other marketplaces in the process.

    相反,我們決定在逐個市場的基礎上進行過渡,測試和評估各種營銷策略,以在此過程中將 Shacks 品牌從其他市場過渡過來。

  • As of the end of Q4, just over 1/4 of our Shacks were solely integrated with Grubhub, while the delivery channel experienced a significant slowdown in growth rates in the quarter compared to earlier in the year and the prior year.

    截至第四季度末,我們超過 1/4 的 Shack 僅與 Grubhub 集成,而與今年早些時候和上一年相比,本季度交付渠道的增長率顯著放緩。

  • As of today, nearly half our Shacks are solely integrated with Grubhub, and we continue to work through transition plans on a market-by-market basis over the coming months.

    截至今天,我們將近一半的 Shack 僅與 Grubhub 集成,並且我們將在未來幾個月繼續按市場製定過渡計劃。

  • As a result of this phased approach, we continue to expect potentially significant volatility in the delivery channel throughout much of 2020, and we're already seeing this play out through the first quarter so far.

    由於這種分階段的方法,我們繼續預計在 2020 年的大部分時間裡,交付渠道可能會出現重大波動,而且我們已經在第一季度看到了這種情況。

  • It's hard to precisely quantify the impact of this transition.

    很難準確量化這種轉變的影響。

  • And since the announcement of our partnership, we know we have often been subject to less prominent site placements, higher pricing and, in some cases, removal from the marketplace entirely.

    自從宣布我們的合作夥伴關係以來,我們知道我們經常受到不那麼顯眼的網站展示位置、更高的定價以及在某些情況下完全從市場上移除的影響。

  • So why endure this volatility in the near term?

    那麼,為什麼要在短期內忍受這種波動呢?

  • Our goal in delivery remains unchanged, to prioritize guest experience while capturing long-term revenue growth.

    我們的交付目標保持不變,即在實現長期收入增長的同時優先考慮客戶體驗。

  • Through this strategy, we'll ultimately retain the data to connect with our guests directly while benefiting from a compelling and sustainable cost structure.

    通過這一戰略,我們最終將保留數據以直接與我們的客人聯繫,同時受益於具有吸引力且可持續的成本結構。

  • All of this while we invest further in our indirect channels, including delivery as a service on our app and web platforms targeted for later this year, integrating and leveraging our own guest data whilst building loyalty to Shake Shack over the long term.

    所有這一切的同時,我們進一步投資於我們的間接渠道,包括計劃在今年晚些時候在我們的應用程序和網絡平台上提供服務,整合和利用我們自己的客人數據,同時建立對 Shake Shack 的長期忠誠度。

  • Same-Shack sales performance in the fourth quarter was not as strong as prior quarters, and we believe our results were impacted by this delivery strategy and a number of additional factors.

    Same-Shack 第四季度的銷售業績不如前幾個季度強勁,我們認為我們的業績受到這種交付策略和許多其他因素的影響。

  • The first was linked -- directly linked to the holiday calendar.

    第一個是鏈接——直接鏈接到假期日曆。

  • With many of our Shacks in busy travel, shopping and community-gathering locations, one less shopping week during the high-traffic holiday season compared to the prior year clearly had an impact.

    由於我們的許多 Shacks 位於繁忙的旅遊、購物和社區聚會地點,與前一年相比,在人流量大的假期購物週減少了一個明顯的影響。

  • In addition, our fourth quarter 2018 holiday season compare was a challenging one, lapping warm, favorable weather conditions in New York, the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic, where we still have the majority of our comp base sales.

    此外,我們的 2018 年第四季度假期比較是一個具有挑戰性的季節,紐約、東北部和大西洋中部的天氣條件溫暖、有利,我們仍然擁有大部分的基礎銷售。

  • We believe the combination of these 2 factors represented a headwind of approximately 1/3 of our comp decline in the quarter.

    我們認為,這兩個因素的結合代表了我們本季度 comp 下降約 1/3 的逆風。

  • We also believe our decision to reduce overall menu innovation and promotional activity versus last year may have contributed to weaker traffic as we chose to focus on Chick'n Bites as well as our digital and delivery channels.

    我們還認為,與去年相比,我們減少整體菜單創新和促銷活動的決定可能導致流量減少,因為我們選擇專注於 Chick'n Bites 以及我們的數字和交付渠道。

  • Likely adding a bit of additional pressure in the comp base was a record development year where we opened a total of 39 new company-operated Shacks with over 80% in existing markets, a number that has been gradually increasing as we shift to further penetrating current markets.

    可能給競爭基礎增加一點額外壓力的是創紀錄的發展年,我們總共開設了 39 家新的公司經營的 Shacks,現有市場超過 80%,隨著我們轉向進一步滲透當前市場,這個數字一直在逐漸增加市場。

  • Add to that the additional 10 licensed Shacks that we opened in the U.S. last year, and this contributed to negative traffic trends in the comp base.

    再加上我們去年在美國開設的另外 10 家獲得許可的 Shacks,這導致了競爭基礎中的負面流量趨勢。

  • At only 167 company-operated Shacks today having added $129 million in Shack sales in the year and with significant growth planned for many years to come, we remain confident in our strategy.

    今天只有 167 家公司經營的 Shacks Shacks 在今年增加了 1.29 億美元的銷售額,並且計劃在未來許多年內實現顯著增長,我們對我們的戰略充滿信心。

  • While we don't believe our aggressive market expansion to be the sole reason for negative traffic in the quarter, it can at times have a short-term impact on existing Shacks.

    雖然我們不認為我們積極的市場擴張是本季度流量下降的唯一原因,但它有時會對現有 Shacks 產生短期影響。

  • We remain focused on growing overall sales and gaining market share one Shack at a time and towards a much bigger footprint in the U.S.

    我們仍然專注於增加整體銷售額並一次獲得一個 Shack 的市場份額,並在美國擴大業務範圍。

  • Licensing revenue increased 59% to $5.6 million driven by a net increase of 28 Shacks and strong performance continuing through the fourth quarter with exceptional strength in new markets and all regions showing growth and strong levels of performance.

    許可收入增長 59% 至 560 萬美元,這主要得益於 28 個 Shacks 的淨增長和強勁的業績持續到第四季度,在新市場和所有地區都表現出強勁的增長和強勁的業績水平。

  • We also saw a benefit from timing of openings during the quarter and ended the year with licensed revenue growing 45% to $19.9 million, exceeding our previous guidance.

    我們還從本季度和年底的開業時間中獲益,許可收入增長 45% 至 1,990 萬美元,超過了我們之前的指導。

  • Shack level operating profit margin in the fourth quarter was 20.4%, pressured across a couple of areas, including sales performance.

    第四季度 Shack 級別的營業利潤率為 20.4%,在包括銷售業績在內的幾個領域都面臨壓力。

  • And yet for the full year 2019, Shack level operating profit grew to $128 million with Shack level operating margin of 22.3%, just above the midpoint of our prior guidance.

    然而,對於 2019 年全年,Shack 級營業利潤增長至 1.28 億美元,Shack 級營業利潤率為 22.3%,略高於我們先前指導的中點。

  • One of the most significant headwinds in the quarter was mid-single-digit beef inflation, which had been gradually increasing throughout the year but stepped up meaningfully in November and reached the highest levels we've seen since late 2015.

    本季度最顯著的阻力之一是中等個位數的牛肉通脹,該通脹在全年逐漸上升,但在 11 月大幅上升,達到了 2015 年底以來的最高水平。

  • We also experienced inflation in dairy, impacting the cost profile of our concretes and shakes throughout the quarter.

    我們還經歷了乳製品的通貨膨脹,影響了我們整個季度的混凝土和奶昔的成本狀況。

  • Beef has leveled off somewhat in Q1 2020, but this inflation, together with the high-cost profile of Chick'n Bites in the first half of the year, represented the majority of the year-on-year deleverage in the COGS line in 2019.

    牛肉在 2020 年第一季度有所趨於平穩,但這種通貨膨脹以及今年上半年 Chick'n Bites 的高成本狀況代表了 2019 年 COGS 系列同比去槓桿化的大部分.

  • Consistent with the last few quarters, we continue to see paper costs increasing with digital sales mix.

    與過去幾個季度一致,我們繼續看到紙張成本隨著數字銷售組合的增加而增加。

  • Labor continues to face pressure in this strong employment environment.

    在這種強勁的就業環境下,工黨繼續面臨壓力。

  • It's competitive and expensive to recruit and retain great talent.

    招聘和留住優秀人才競爭激烈且成本高昂。

  • And you heard from Randy some of the ways we continue to invest in and differentiate ourselves as an employer of choice.

    你從蘭迪那裡聽說了我們繼續投資並使自己成為首選雇主的差異化的一些方式。

  • We increased our average starting wage by mid-single digits in 2019, and it remains a headwind moving forward.

    我們在 2019 年將平均起薪提高了中等個位數,這仍然是前進的阻力。

  • As well as these industry-wide factors, our labor line in the fourth quarter was impacted from less sales leverage on fixed management costs than we had benefited from earlier in the year.

    除了這些全行業因素外,我們第四季度的勞動力線還受到固定管理成本的銷售槓桿低於我們今年早些時候受益的影響。

  • Finally, new Shacks do continue to typically open with a higher labor cost, which then normalizes over time.

    最後,新的 Shacks 通常會繼續以更高的勞動力成本開放,然後隨著時間的推移正常化。

  • Our occupancy came in at 9% in Q4 impacted by the loss of sales leverage.

    受銷售槓桿損失的影響,我們在第四季度的入住率為 9%。

  • Also, as a reminder, the adoption of the new lease accounting standard impacted our 2019 Shack level operating margin by approximately 50 basis points as certain lease costs moved out of depreciation and interest and into occupancy.

    此外,提醒一下,由於某些租賃成本從折舊和利息轉移到入住率,新租賃會計準則的採用對我們 2019 年 Shack 水平的營業利潤率產生了大約 50 個基點的影響。

  • Total G&A for the fourth quarter was $19.2 million and included $1.9 million related to noncash equity compensation and noncash technology amortization.

    第四季度的 G&A 總額為 1920 萬美元,其中包括與非現金股權補償和非現金技術攤銷相關的 190 萬美元。

  • The year-on-year increase in our G&A was driven by investments across the company to support our growth.

    我們 G&A 的同比增長是由整個公司的投資推動的,以支持我們的增長。

  • For the full year, we spent $65.6 million in total G&A, below our prior guidance of $67 million to $68 million due to the timing of various initiatives.

    由於各種舉措的時間安排,全年我們在 G&A 上花費了 6560 萬美元,低於我們之前 6700 萬至 6800 萬美元的指導。

  • Operating expenses associated with Project Concrete were $2.1 million for the full year, with a greater proportion of spend capitalized as the project progressed.

    全年與 Project Concrete 相關的運營費用為 210 萬美元,隨著項目的進展,更大比例的支出資本化。

  • Project Concrete is now in its latter stage, focusing on procure-to-pay inventory and supplier management tools and processes with rollout ongoing through the middle of this year.

    Project Concrete 現在處於後期階段,重點關注採購到付款庫存和供應商管理工具和流程,並將在今年年中推出。

  • As a percentage of full year 2019 revenue, G&A ultimately provided leverage, mostly due to the timing of spend that I mentioned, combined with strong full year 2019 sales performance and should not be expected for 2020 as we continue to invest across a variety of long-term growth initiatives.

    作為 2019 年全年收入的百分比,G&A 最終提供了槓桿作用,這主要是由於我提到的支出時間,加上 2019 年全年的強勁銷售業績,預計 2020 年不會出現這種情況,因為我們將繼續投資於各種長期-長期增長計劃。

  • Preopening expenses in the quarter were $4.2 million, bringing the full year to $14.8 million, above our prior guidance due to certain first quarter 2020 opening costs falling into the fourth quarter as well as some delays to certain Shacks versus their originally forecasted opening date.

    本季度的開業前費用為 420 萬美元,使全年達到 1480 萬美元,高於我們先前的指導,原因是某些 2020 年第一季度的開業成本下降到第四季度,以及某些 Shacks 的一些延遲與其最初預測的開業日期相比。

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $14.8 million and grew 2.3% compared to last year and was $81.8 million for the full year, growing 10.8%.

    第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1480 萬美元,比去年增長 2.3%,全年為 8180 萬美元,增長 10.8%。

  • Long term, we expect to continue to deliver double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth as we continue to grow top line sales and ultimately deliver leverage across various cost line items.

    從長遠來看,我們預計將繼續實現兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 增長,因為我們將繼續增加收入並最終在各種成本項目中發揮槓桿作用。

  • Our underlying effective tax rate, excluding the net impact of excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation activity, was 16.2% for the quarter and 26.2% for the year, slightly below our guided range for the full year due to higher levels of tax credit.

    我們的基本有效稅率,不包括與股票薪酬活動相關的超額稅收優惠的淨影響,本季度為 16.2%,全年為 26.2%,由於稅收水平較高,略低於我們全年的指導範圍信用。

  • A reconciliation of our tax rate is included in the appendix of our supplemental material.

    我們的補充材料的附錄中包含我們的稅率調節表。

  • Looking to this current year, we expect total revenue in 2020 to be between $712 million and $720 million, growth of approximately 20% to 21%, including the impact from the 53rd week of approximately $15 million.

    展望今年,我們預計 2020 年的總收入將在 7.12 億美元至 7.2 億美元之間,增長約 20% 至 21%,其中包括來自第 53 週的約 1500 萬美元的影響。

  • Within these numbers, licensing revenue is expected to be between $21 million and $22 million.

    在這些數字中,許可收入預計在 2100 萬美元到 2200 萬美元之間。

  • We remain on track in 2020 to exceed our 3-year sales target of $700 million that we shared in 2017 as well as to surpass $1 billion in system-wide sales.

    我們仍有望在 2020 年超越我們在 2017 年分享的 7 億美元的 3 年銷售額目標,以及超過 10 億美元的全系統銷售額。

  • Our licensed business has been performing extremely well, and we've been bullish entering 2020.

    我們的許可業務一直表現非常出色,我們一直看好進入 2020 年。

  • However, due to the recent and potentially significant headwinds caused by the coronavirus outbreak, we've updated our initial plan and believe it's appropriate to be more conservative in our 2020 expectations and guidance at this time.

    然而,由於最近冠狀病毒爆發造成的潛在重大不利因素,我們已經更新了我們的初步計劃,並認為此時對 2020 年的預期和指導採取更保守的做法是合適的。

  • Our Shacks in China, Hong Kong and throughout Asia are facing significant uncertainty and already experiencing acute sales impact over the last 5 weeks.

    我們在中國、香港和整個亞洲的 Shacks 都面臨著巨大的不確定性,並且在過去 5 週內已經經歷了嚴重的銷售影響。

  • We expect delayed openings in the region for the remainder of the year.

    我們預計今年剩餘時間該地區的開業時間會推遲。

  • And for context, Asia represents approximately 1/3 of our annualized licensed revenue, so although a small percentage of our overall total company revenue, it does have an impact on our bottom line.

    就背景而言,亞洲約占我們年化許可收入的 1/3,因此儘管占我們公司總收入的一小部分,但它確實對我們的底線產生了影響。

  • Our total revenue guidance also incorporates the impact from the temporary closure of 2 New York City Shacks undergoing extensive renovations, the Upper West Side and Grand Central Station.

    我們的總收入指引還包括臨時關閉 2 個正在進行大規模翻新的紐約市棚屋、上西區和中央車站的影響。

  • These are 2 of our highest volume Shacks expected to be closed for a combined 14 to 18 weeks of lost sales in the first quarter.

    這些是我們銷量最高的 2 個 Shacks,預計將在第一季度因銷售損失合計 14 至 18 周而關閉。

  • Both of these Shacks have been removed from our same-Shack sales guidance for the estimated periods of their respective closures and will be adjusted for in our reporting.

    這兩個 Shacks 都已從我們的 same-Shack 銷售指南中刪除了它們各自關閉的估計時間,並將在我們的報告中進行調整。

  • Getting into our same-Shack sales guidance.

    進入我們的 same-Shack 銷售指南。

  • Given continuing volatility as we work through our delivery transition, combined with trends to date, we expect same-Shack sales for the full year 2020 to be down low single digits.

    鑑於我們在交付過渡期間的持續波動,結合迄今為止的趨勢,我們預計 2020 年全年的同屋銷售額將下降到低個位數。

  • Within this, we expect more acute pressure in the comp base during the first half of the year as we lap our toughest compares with gradual improvement throughout the course of the year.

    在此範圍內,我們預計今年上半年的競爭基礎會面臨更大的壓力,因為我們度過了最艱難的時期,與全年的逐步改善相比。

  • We expect to open between 40 and 42 company-operated Shacks in 2020 with approximately 90% of this year's openings planned within our existing markets.

    我們預計到 2020 年將開設 40 至 42 個公司經營的 Shacks,其中約 90% 計劃在我們現有市場內開設。

  • Our opening schedule is currently projected to be back-end weighted with 60% to 70% of our openings happening in the back half of the year and the majority of those in the fourth quarter.

    我們的開業時間表目前預計將在後端加權,其中 60% 至 70% 的開業發生在今年下半年,大部分開業發生在第四季度。

  • As Randy mentioned, our Shack formats continue to expand.

    正如 Randy 提到的,我們的 Shack 格式在不斷擴展。

  • And as a result, our 2020 class will likely see a broadening range of expected sales volumes.

    因此,我們 2020 屆的預期銷量範圍可能會擴大。

  • We expect the average unit volume for all company-operated Shacks to be between $3.7 million and $3.8 million by the end of 2020.

    我們預計到 2020 年底,所有公司運營的 Shack 的平均單位銷量將在 370 萬美元至 380 萬美元之間。

  • Our sales forecast include the 1.5% to 2% price increase we took mid-December.

    我們的銷售預測包括 12 月中旬 1.5% 至 2% 的價格上漲。

  • We've remained conservative with pricing over the last decade, generally taking less than 2% per year.

    在過去十年中,我們對定價一直保持保守,通常每年收取不到 2% 的費用。

  • However, we're in the midst of some extensive pricing research across the country.

    但是,我們正在全國范圍內進行一些廣泛的定價研究。

  • Learnings from this may present opportunities for us to adjust pricing in certain markets, on specific menu items or in certain channels, although we don't have any further increases planned at this time.

    從中吸取教訓可能會為我們提供調整某些市場、特定菜單項或某些渠道定價的機會,儘管我們目前沒有任何進一步增加的計劃。

  • Moving on to Shack level operating profit.

    轉向 Shack 級別的營業利潤。

  • We expect margins to begin to stabilize in 2020 compared to the contraction seen over the past few years as the size and profile of our unit base continues to broaden and as certain cost line items start to potentially level off.

    與過去幾年的收縮相比,我們預計利潤率將在 2020 年開始趨於穩定,因為我們單位基礎的規模和概況繼續擴大,並且某些成本項目可能開始趨於平穩。

  • At this time, we expect Shack level operating margin to be between 22% and 22.5%.

    目前,我們預計 Shack 水平的營業利潤率將在 22% 至 22.5% 之間。

  • And included within this guidance is an approximate 20 to 25 basis points favorable impact from the 53rd week.

    並且包含在該指南中的是第 53 週以來大約 20 到 25 個基點的有利影響。

  • As I mentioned, we've seen some of the recent beef inflation easing so far in 2020.

    正如我所提到的,到 2020 年為止,我們已經看到最近的一些牛肉通脹有所緩解。

  • In total, based on this and the improved cost profile of Chick'n Bites compared to last year, we do expect slight leverage in the food and paper cost line in 2020.

    總的來說,基於這一點以及與去年相比 Chick'n Bites 成本狀況的改善,我們確實預計 2020 年食品和紙張成本線將略有槓桿作用。

  • Labor has both puts and takes.

    工黨既有投入也有投入。

  • The challenging market continues, yet annual mandatory wage increases lessened somewhat when compared to those in 2019.

    充滿挑戰的市場仍在繼續,但與 2019 年相比,年度強制性工資增長有所放緩。

  • We've been very focused on how to optimize our labor model, continuing to drive more efficient operations through increased use of technology so that precious labor hours are well spent.

    我們一直非常關注如何優化我們的勞動力模型,通過更多地使用技術繼續推動更高效的運營,從而使寶貴的勞動時間得到充分利用。

  • These initiatives range from the impact of kiosks on our ability to reduce or redeploy labor, minimizing administrative tasks for our teams through Project Concrete, updating and optimizing our scheduling rules and the tools that support them, and a host of other process improvement initiatives being worked on across the company.

    這些舉措包括信息亭對我們減少或重新部署勞動力的能力的影響、通過 Project Concrete 最大限度地減少我們團隊的管理任務、更新和優化我們的調度規則和支持它們的工具,以及正在實施的許多其他流程改進舉措在整個公司。

  • While we anticipate continued deleveraging of labor in 2020, we do expect an easing of the pressure compared to recent years.

    雖然我們預計 2020 年勞動力將繼續去槓桿化,但與近幾年相比,我們確實預計壓力會有所緩解。

  • We plan to continue to invest in building the business in 2020, and as such, do not expect to deliver G&A leverage this year.

    我們計劃在 2020 年繼續投資建設業務,因此,預計今年不會提供 G&A 槓桿。

  • 2019 was a year focused on back of house and operational infrastructure investment.

    2019 年是專注於後台和運營基礎設施投資的一年。

  • This is the year for digital and guest experience.

    今年是數字和客戶體驗的一年。

  • We've recently grown our tech and marketing teams with a much deeper and broader set of skills as we continue to expand the ways a guest can engage with us, and we're excited to invest in front of that opportunity.

    隨著我們繼續擴大客人與我們互動的方式,我們最近擴大了我們的技術和營銷團隊,使他們掌握了更深入、更廣泛的技能,我們很高興能抓住這個機會進行投資。

  • We've also created a new op support team as we remain committed to driving excellence across the company.

    我們還創建了一個新的運營支持團隊,因為我們仍然致力於在整個公司推動卓越。

  • We're investing for growth, and we feel confident in the returns these investments will deliver over time.

    我們正在為增長而投資,我們對這些投資將隨著時間的推移帶來的回報充滿信心。

  • 2020 will see the expansion of our home office in New York, where we'll take on additional space within our current building above the West Village Shack and our Innovation Kitchen.

    2020 年,我們將在紐約的家庭辦公室進行擴建,我們將在西村小屋和創新廚房上方的現有建築內佔用更多空間。

  • It's also the year of our biannual leadership retreat, currently planned for the fourth quarter, a core part of how we nurture and enrich our culture and develop our leaders.

    這也是我們一年兩次的領導務虛會的一年,目前計劃在第四季度舉行,這是我們如何培養和豐富我們的文化以及培養我們的領導者的核心部分。

  • In total, for 2020, we expect G&A to be between $80 million and $82 million with approximately $9.1 million of noncash items related to equity compensation and technology amortization as well as license fees following the implementation of Project Concrete.

    總體而言,我們預計 2020 年的 G&A 將在 8000 萬美元至 8200 萬美元之間,其中約有 910 萬美元的非現金項目與股權補償和技術攤銷以及實施混凝土項目後的許可費有關。

  • Included within our total G&A is an additional expense impact primarily related to salaries and benefits of $1 million to $1.2 million from a 53rd week.

    從第 53 週開始,我們的 G&A 總額中包括一項主要與薪水和福利相關的額外費用影響,為 100 萬至 120 萬美元。

  • We expect depreciation to be between $52.5 million and $53.5 million, another sizable step-up.

    我們預計折舊將在 5250 萬美元至 5350 萬美元之間,這是另一個相當大的提升。

  • The majority of this, driven by the increasing number of Shacks we continue to add to the portfolio.

    其中大部分是由於越來越多的 Shacks 我們繼續添加到投資組合中。

  • This year-on-year increase in depreciation continues to have a large impact on EPS growth and will continue to do so while we remain in such a significant build phase.

    折舊的同比增長繼續對每股收益增長產生重大影響,並且在我們仍處於如此重要的建設階段時將繼續這樣做。

  • Our pro forma tax rate is estimated to be between 26% and 27%.

    我們的備考稅率估計在 26% 到 27% 之間。

  • And as a reminder, we guide to this number, excluding any beneficial tax impact from stock-based compensation activity.

    提醒一下,我們指導這個數字,不包括基於股票的補償活動的任何有利稅收影響。

  • Our 2019 tax rate was significantly lower due to stock-related activity, which had a $0.15 impact on 2019 full year EPS.

    由於與股票相關的活動,我們 2019 年的稅率顯著降低,這對 2019 年全年每股收益產生了 0.15 美元的影響。

  • We're at an important stage in our journey right now, approaching a size where we can start to think about gradual economies of scale, yet still so early in our overall growth that we remain committed to investing in what we believe is a sizable opportunity ahead.

    我們現在正處於我們旅程的一個重要階段,接近我們可以開始考慮逐步規模經濟的規模,但我們的整體增長還處於早期階段,我們仍然致力於投資我們認為是一個相當大的機會先。

  • And with that, I'll pass you back to Randy to give some more color on how we're thinking about 2020.

    有了這個,我會把你傳回給蘭迪,讓我們對 2020 年的想法有更多的了解。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Tara.

    謝謝,塔拉。

  • So let's be clear.

    所以讓我們說清楚。

  • We're still in an aggressive growth phase.

    我們仍處於積極的增長階段。

  • Our 2020 growth plan is centered around 5 key pillars: our people, attracting, retaining and developing the best people as we scale; our menu, maintaining excellence around our core menu, innovating classics and an eye on potential category expansion to drive growth; evolving our guest experience, we're designing Shacks and experiences that marry digital convenience with our signature community-gathering spaces; continued use of technology to better support and grow all aspects of our business; and finally, our licensed business, leveraging our high-margin cash-accretive model through expansion of our brand across the globe, particularly with those sizable new markets we just entered in 2019.

    我們的 2020 年增長計劃圍繞 5 個關鍵支柱:我們的菜單,圍繞我們的核心菜單保持卓越,創新經典,並著眼於潛在的類別擴展以推動增長;為了改進我們的賓客體驗,我們正在設計將數字便利與我們標誌性的社區聚會空間結合起來的 Shacks 和體驗;繼續使用技術更好地支持和發展我們業務的各個方面;最後,我們的授權業務,通過在全球範圍內擴展我們的品牌,特別是我們在 2019 年剛剛進入的那些規模龐大的新市場,利用我們的高利潤現金增值模式。

  • Let's dig into some of this a bit.

    讓我們深入研究一下。

  • Our investment and focus on our people only strengthens in 2020 as hospitality remains at our core.

    我們的投資和對員工的關注只會在 2020 年加強,因為熱情好客仍然是我們的核心。

  • Tara mentioned our leadership retreat, which will come together later this year.

    塔拉提到了我們的領導務虛會,將於今年晚些時候舉行。

  • And we'll be investing in additional programs throughout the year aimed at leadership development and professional growth for all levels within our teams.

    我們將在全年投資於其他計劃,旨在為我們團隊中的所有級別開發領導力和專業成長。

  • We'll also be continuing to ensure we provide a compelling compensation package, particularly for our general managers to whom we plan to issue equity awards again later this year.

    我們還將繼續確保我們提供有吸引力的薪酬方案,特別是對於我們計劃在今年晚些時候再次向其發放股權獎勵的總經理。

  • Nothing is more important than our people.

    沒有什麼比我們的員工更重要。

  • We'll be doing more than ever to attract and develop the talent we need and celebrate everything they do.

    我們比以往任何時候都更努力地吸引和培養我們需要的人才,並慶祝他們所做的一切。

  • Moving on to our menu.

    繼續我們的菜單。

  • Shake Shack was born by recreating the classics better than the traditional fast-food chains.

    Shake Shack 是通過比傳統快餐連鎖店更好地重現經典而誕生的。

  • In 2020, we'll be ramping up menu innovation with a variety of buzz-worthy LTOs, innovating around our core menu and expanding into new categories.

    2020 年,我們將通過各種備受矚目的 LTO 加強菜單創新,圍繞我們的核心菜單進行創新,並擴展到新的類別。

  • So far this quarter, we've brought back the ShackMeister Burger LTO, our Shack Burger topped with shallots marinated in ShackMeister Ale beer and crisp fries.

    本季度到目前為止,我們已經帶回了 ShackMeister Burger LTO,我們的 Shack 漢堡配上用 ShackMeister Ale 啤酒醃製的青蔥和脆薯條。

  • Beginning in Q2, we're bringing back our Hot Chick'n, a perennial favorite, while also expanding our Chick'n category with the addition of hot Chick'n Bites for the first time.

    從第二季度開始,我們將重新推出常年最受歡迎的 Hot Chick'n,同時還通過首次添加熱 Chick'n Bites 擴展我們的 Chick'n 類別。

  • This year, we'll feature various heat levels to customize to your taste, including the fire level, which will be available only on digital channels.

    今年,我們將根據您的口味定制各種熱度級別,包括僅在數字頻道上提供的火力級別。

  • And finally, we'll couple that with a newly available Ranch dressing.

    最後,我們將把它與新推出的 Ranch 敷料搭配使用。

  • This year, we plan to rotate even more flavors throughout our featured shakes, including some of our current flavors such as Cookie Butter and a return to Cherry Blossom this spring.

    今年,我們計劃在我們的特色奶昔中輪換更多口味,包括我們目前的一些口味,例如 Cookie Butter 和今年春天回歸的 Cherry Blossom。

  • We're also testing a smaller shake size option in certain markets.

    我們還在某些市場測試更小的震動大小選項。

  • We're early in that test and understanding guest preference and sales impact.

    我們在測試和了解客人偏好和銷售影響方面處於早期階段。

  • And our goal overall, of course, is to satisfy guests' desire for a smaller portion and sell more shakes over time.

    當然,我們的總體目標是滿足客人對小份量的需求,並隨著時間的推移賣出更多的奶昔。

  • This year, we'll also be looking further into cold beverage innovation as we believe there's opportunity for us to offer greater choice and add to our check through this category over the long term.

    今年,我們還將進一步研究冷飲創新,因為我們相信我們有機會提供更多選擇,並從長遠來看通過這一類別增加我們的支票。

  • Lastly, we're also looking at new menu categories.

    最後,我們還在尋找新的菜單類別。

  • Plant-based food is obviously a hot topic these days, and we've been offering a beloved vegetarian option, our 'Shroom Burger, since 2004.

    植物性食品顯然是當今的熱門話題,自 2004 年以來,我們一直在提供深受喜愛的素食選擇,即我們的“蘑菇漢堡”。

  • It's been a fantastic menu item for vegetarians and meat-eaters alike.

    對於素食者和肉食者來說,這是一個很棒的菜單項。

  • And currently, we're testing a new innovation in how we approach vegetarian and vegan options.

    目前,我們正在測試一項關於我們如何處理素食和素食選擇的新創新。

  • A Veggie Shack Burger, incorporating 13 real vegetables, herbs and grains currently being served only at our West Village Shack.

    Veggie Shack 漢堡,包含 13 種真正的蔬菜、香草和穀物,目前僅在我們的 West Village Shack 供應。

  • We're certain this category will evolve as we listen to guest feedback, and we may create other products to expand vegetable-based menu options while staying true to our core and delivering craveable menu items for Shack fans.

    我們確信這一類別將隨著我們聽取客人的反饋而發展,並且我們可能會創建其他產品來擴展基於蔬菜的菜單選項,同時忠於我們的核心並為 Shack 粉絲提供令人渴望的菜單項。

  • Moving to the overall Shack experience.

    轉到整體 Shack 體驗。

  • We know the pickup area at certain Shacks during peak time remains a challenge.

    我們知道在高峰時段某些 Shacks 的接送區仍然是一個挑戰。

  • And while we've made improvements this year in our current Shacks with new shelving, we're focused on new Shack designs and layouts that create distinct areas, separating digital and delivery from the in-Shack pickup experience.

    雖然我們今年通過新貨架對當前的 Shacks 進行了改進,但我們專注於新的 Shack 設計和佈局,以創建不同的區域,將數字和交付與 Shack 取貨體驗分開。

  • In a few weeks, we'll reopen our Upper West Side location after an extensive renovation with a dedicated delivery entrance and pickup area and an improved flow and seating layout.

    幾週後,我們將在經過大規模翻新後重新開放我們的上西區門店,該門店設有專門的送貨入口和取貨區,並改善了人流和座位佈局。

  • We're also testing new kitchen flows and layouts in certain new Shacks with the goal of labor efficiency, improved accuracy and greater throughput.

    我們還在某些新的 Shacks 中測試新的廚房流程和佈局,以提高勞動效率、提高準確性和提高吞吐量。

  • As for the 2020 class, we expect it to perform on average at around $3 million AUV profile we previously shared, with Shacks across a varied range of sales volumes.

    至於 2020 年的班級,我們預計它的平均表現將達到我們之前分享的約 300 萬美元的 AUV 概況,Shacks 的銷量範圍各不相同。

  • Our development team has done a fantastic job over recent years, holding our average build cost relatively flat despite a prolonged inflationary environment in the construction sector.

    近年來,我們的開發團隊做得非常出色,儘管建築行業的通貨膨脹環境長期存在,但我們的平均建造成本保持相對平穩。

  • In 2019, our average cost to build was approximately $2.2 million gross.

    2019 年,我們的平均建造成本約為 220 萬美元。

  • That works out to about $1.9 million net of tenant improvement contributions, which was overall roughly flat with 2018.

    扣除租戶改善貢獻後,淨額約為 190 萬美元,總體上與 2018 年持平。

  • We're targeting to continue to stay in a similar range for 2020.

    我們的目標是在 2020 年繼續保持在類似的範圍內。

  • Certain formats and smaller footprints will be at the lower end of our cost range with premium freestanding pads and larger urban locations generally being at the higher end.

    某些格式和較小的佔地面積將處於我們成本範圍的較低端,而高級獨立式墊和較大的城市位置通常處於較高端。

  • When we think about guest experience, we're dialing up our investments in building towards improved digital experiences for the future.

    當我們考慮客戶體驗時,我們正在加大投資建設以改善未來的數字體驗。

  • Our goal is to better engage with our guests across their preferred channel and add reasons to come to the Shack for the first time or to return more frequently.

    我們的目標是通過他們喜歡的渠道更好地與我們的客人互動,並增加第一次來 Shack 或更頻繁返回的理由。

  • We're building more sophisticated front and back ends across our digital ecosystem.

    我們正在整個數字生態系統中構建更複雜的前端和後端。

  • We're working to tie all our guest data together so we gain a better cross-channel view and deliver insights and opportunities to reengage with our guests more frequently.

    我們正在努力將所有客人數據聯繫在一起,以便我們獲得更好的跨渠道視圖,並提供更頻繁地與客人重新互動的見解和機會。

  • Our biggest goal is to continue to grow traffic to our own channels over time.

    我們最大的目標是隨著時間的推移繼續增加我們自己頻道的流量。

  • Lastly, we have a long-term focused opportunity in our licensed business.

    最後,我們在我們的許可業務中有一個長期關注的機會。

  • We have the flexibility to be a company-operated model here in the U.S., and at the same time, benefit from approximately 40% of our Shacks today being licensed through an asset-light, cash flow-accretive operating model.

    在美國,我們可以靈活地成為公司運營的模式,同時,我們今天約有 40% 的 Shacks 通過輕資產、現金流增加的運營模式獲得許可。

  • It allows the Shake Shack brand to thrive in so many places around the world.

    它讓 Shake Shack 品牌在世界各地蓬勃發展。

  • Now looking at 2020, we're planning on opening about 20 to 25 new licensed units with our focus geared towards Asia, and in particular China where our entrance into the Beijing market later this year represents another tremendous opportunity.

    現在展望 2020 年,我們計劃開設大約 20 到 25 個新的特許經營單位,我們的重點是亞洲,特別是中國,我們今年晚些時候進入北京市場代表著另一個巨大的機會。

  • Of course, the ongoing and significant challenges with the coronavirus outbreak could impact the timing and performance across our Asian markets in this year.

    當然,冠狀病毒爆發帶來的持續重大挑戰可能會影響我們今年亞洲市場的時機和表現。

  • Our primary concern will always remain the well-being of our teams, our guests and our communities.

    我們最關心的始終是我們團隊、客人和社區的福祉。

  • And over the long term, we remain big believers in the China market for us as well as Asia overall.

    從長遠來看,我們仍然堅信中國市場以及整個亞洲市場。

  • But this year may not capture fully the growth or unit expansion that we had planned.

    但今年可能無法完全實現我們計劃的增長或單位擴張。

  • Outside of China, we see solid growth ahead in new and established markets, and we continue to go deeper in our established markets.

    在中國以外,我們看到新興市場和成熟市場的穩步增長,我們將繼續深入我們的成熟市場。

  • Additionally, we're really excited to continue to expand our domestic licensed business across multiple formats, including the expansion of our newest category of a roadside freeway Shack with a new Shack on the New Jersey Turnpike coming up in 2020.

    此外,我們非常高興能夠繼續以多種形式擴展我們的國內許可業務,包括擴展我們最新的路邊高速公路 Shack 類別,並於 2020 年在新澤西州收費公路上推出新的 Shack。

  • To sum up, there are many reasons we're excited about our future as we fast approach $1 billion in total system-wide sales in 2020.

    總而言之,我們對未來感到興奮的原因有很多,因為我們將在 2020 年快速接近 10 億美元的全系統總銷售額。

  • Last year, we delivered our biggest year ever to almost 30% revenue growth and, this year, target again exceed more than 20%, all while growing EBITDA significantly.

    去年,我們實現了有史以來最大的一年,收入增長近 30%,今年的目標再次超過 20%,同時 EBITDA 顯著增長。

  • While we expect 2020 to have its challenges, there's a lot going on in a business going through this much growth.

    雖然我們預計 2020 年將面臨挑戰,但在經歷如此大的增長的過程中,有很多事情要做。

  • We're thankful for the incredible teams and leaders fueling this company's growth and the tremendous runway we have ahead.

    我們感謝推動公司發展的令人難以置信的團隊和領導者,以及我們未來的巨大跑道。

  • And with that, operator, you can go ahead and open up the call for questions.

    有了這個,接線員,你可以繼續打開問題電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Joshua Long of Piper Sandler.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Joshua Long。

  • Joshua C. Long - Assistant VP & Research Analyst

    Joshua C. Long - Assistant VP & Research Analyst

  • Wanted to see if you can dig into the op support team investment that you talked about and what's been done to date: where you see that going and how you think that's going to help continue the long-term development profile, where you guys focus not just on the quantity but the quality of the store openings and really transferring that culture into new and existing markets.

    想看看您是否可以深入了解您談到的運營支持團隊投資以及迄今為止所做的事情:您看到的進展情況以及您認為這將如何幫助繼續長期發展概況,你們關注的不是只看開店的數量和質量,並將這種文化真正轉移到新的和現有的市場。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Thanks a lot, Joshua.

    非常感謝,約書亞。

  • Look, it's been -- we've run this company pretty lean for so many years, right?

    看,我們已經很精簡地經營這家公司這麼多年了,對吧?

  • And as we continue to grow our -- the amount of regions and the amount of complexity that we've built into the Shack, it's been so important for us to grow that op support team.

    隨著我們繼續擴大我們的區域數量和我們在 Shack 中構建的複雜性,發展該運營支持團隊對我們來說非常重要。

  • What's so fun about it is it's gone from 0 people to 4 already, plus in addition to all of our training teams that open and continue ongoing training.

    有趣的是,它已經從 0 人減少到 4 人,而且我們所有的培訓團隊都開放並繼續進行持續培訓。

  • And that team is made up of veterans, who have been with Shake Shack, some for nearly a decade, and others from some of our earliest Shacks.

    該團隊由退伍軍人組成,他們已經在 Shake Shack 工作了將近十年,而其他人則來自我們最早的一些 Shacks。

  • That team today is really focused on mostly the digital opportunity that we have, both in delivery and our own channels, making sure that the Shack operators can do that really well.

    今天,該團隊真正專注於我們在交付和我們自己的渠道方面擁有的數字機會,以確保 Shack 運營商能夠真正做到這一點。

  • It's focused quite a bit on the rollout of Project Concrete and the way that we're trying to take admin out of the Shacks.

    它主要關注 Project Concrete 的推出以及我們試圖讓管理員脫離 Shacks 的方式。

  • It's focused quite a bit on our labor effectiveness so that we can make sure that we're scheduling better, we're using those important labor hours, especially as so many new regulations have come up in various markets, including New York, California, in some of the biggest.

    它非常關注我們的勞動效率,這樣我們就可以確保我們安排得更好,我們正在利用那些重要的勞動時間,尤其是在包括紐約、加利福尼亞在內的各個市場出台瞭如此多的新規定的情況下,在一些最大的。

  • And this team is really, their job is to make sure that we open Shacks well.

    這個團隊真的是,他們的工作是確保我們開好 Shacks。

  • We continue to train them and develop our leaders and just really support what's out there in our restaurants right now.

    我們繼續培訓他們並培養我們的領導者,並真正支持我們餐廳目前的服務。

  • And look, I said it earlier, it's a complicated business to run a Shake Shack, especially the volumes that we do.

    看,我之前說過,經營 Shake Shack 是一項複雜的業務,尤其是我們所做的業務。

  • So the more we can build this team, the better we think we're going to do.

    所以我們越能建立這個團隊,我們就會做得越好。

  • We're really excited about the initiatives that you'll see coming down the pike from that team.

    我們對您將看到該團隊採取的舉措感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Katherine Fogertey of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Katherine Fogertey。

  • Katherine Irene Fogertey - VP & Derivatives Research Strategist

    Katherine Irene Fogertey - VP & Derivatives Research Strategist

  • I was wondering, in one of the points that you had made about price for 2020, when we compare the price that you're taking versus kind of your peers, it looks like maybe there's a little bit more opportunity for you to push there.

    我想知道,在你提出的關於 2020 年價格的觀點之一中,當我們將你的價格與你的同行的價格進行比較時,看起來你可能有更多的機會推動那裡。

  • At what time in the year would you make that decision if it does make sense to actually pass on a little bit more price here?

    如果在這裡實際傳遞更多價格確實有意義,您會在一年中的什麼時候做出該決定?

  • And then I had another question on your guidance.

    然後我對你的指導有另一個問題。

  • We heard about all the menu innovation that's to come this year.

    我們聽說了今年即將推出的所有菜單創新。

  • How much are you factoring in improving traffic around menu innovation versus just waiting to see what comes?

    您在提高菜單創新方面的流量方面考慮了多少,而不是只等著看會發生什麼?

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Katherine.

    謝謝,凱瑟琳。

  • On the pricing, look, we've -- you know we've been conservative for more than a decade, taking generally less than 2% price every year.

    在定價方面,看,我們已經 - 你知道我們十多年來一直很保守,每年的價格通常低於 2%。

  • We have kept a lot in the tank for the future.

    我們為未來保留了很多。

  • We believe we have a great price value opportunity.

    我們相信我們有一個很好的價格價值機會。

  • As we noted, we're doing more extensive research than we've ever done, both regionally, channel-by-channel, trying to understand what our opportunities might be beyond the strategy that we've employed for so many years.

    正如我們所指出的,我們正在做比以往任何時候都更廣泛的研究,無論是區域性的,還是逐個渠道的,試圖了解我們的機會可能超出我們多年來採用的戰略。

  • So we don't have a date where we would expect to change anything, and we certainly may not.

    所以我們沒有一個我們期望改變任何事情的日期,我們當然可能不會。

  • We may continue to keep with that strategy.

    我們可能會繼續保持這一戰略。

  • But I think what we wanted to call out is, for the first time, really investing in the research and understanding of guest preference value across so many places and across so many menu items and channels.

    但我認為我們想要呼籲的是,第一次真正投資於研究和理解客人偏好價值,跨越這麼多地方、這麼多菜單項和渠道。

  • So we will definitely keep you posted on that.

    因此,我們一定會及時通知您。

  • If we find that there's opportunity, we may choose to take that later this year.

    如果我們發現有機會,我們可能會選擇在今年晚些時候抓住它。

  • That is definitely something we feel like we may be able to do.

    這絕對是我們覺得我們可以做到的事情。

  • And as you noted, the industry is probably taking a lot more than we have.

    正如你所指出的,這個行業可能比我們吸收的要多得多。

  • We like being in that position for all these years.

    這些年來,我們喜歡一直處於那個位置。

  • We're in a long-term game here, not just for the next quarter, so we're taking that one quarter at a time.

    我們在這裡進行長期比賽,而不僅僅是下個季度,所以我們一次只做一個季度。

  • We'll keep you posted.

    我們會及時通知您。

  • And the second question?

    第二個問題?

  • Melissa Eve Calandruccio - SVP

    Melissa Eve Calandruccio - SVP

  • Menu innovation.

    菜單創新。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Was menu innovation and traffic.

    是菜單創新和流量。

  • So I think, look, we're doing quite a bit more than we did last year.

    所以我認為,看,我們比去年做得更多。

  • I think the pressures in the business that Tara spoke to in the fourth quarter and continuing, obviously, our delivery transition, some of the other things that we've noted that have pressured us and one of the tactics we're going to be using is menu innovation to attempt to turn that back around.

    我認為 Tara 在第四季度談到的業務壓力,顯然,我們的交付過渡,我們注意到的其他一些事情給我們帶來了壓力,以及我們將要使用的策略之一是試圖扭轉這種局面的菜單創新。

  • We've got some favorites coming up here with our Hot Chick'n and we've got some new categories.

    我們的 Hot Chick'n 推出了一些最受歡迎的產品,我們還推出了一些新類別。

  • I'm really excited as we've talked about vegetables quite a bit and the obvious plant-based excitement going on in the country right now.

    我真的很興奮,因為我們已經談了很多關於蔬菜的話題,以及目前該國明顯以植物為基礎的興奮。

  • We're testing that in the Innovation Kitchen as we do so many things that allow us to test, learn and decide whether it's got legs beyond that.

    我們正在創新廚房中對此進行測試,因為我們做了很多事情,使我們能夠測試、學習並決定它是否有超越這一點的優勢。

  • So that's what we're working on.

    這就是我們正在努力的。

  • We're excited to do the kind of innovation that we believe will not complicate operations and that we can pull off with some solid throughput and keep things simplifying and moving forward, but is still adding guests and reason to come by.

    我們很高興能夠進行我們認為不會使操作複雜化的創新,我們可以通過一些穩定的吞吐量取得成功,並使事情變得簡單和向前發展,但仍在增加客人和來訪的理由。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Lauren Silberman of Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Lauren Silberman。

  • Lauren Danielle Silberman - Senior Analyst

    Lauren Danielle Silberman - Senior Analyst

  • I have a clarification and a question.

    我有一個澄清和一個問題。

  • On the Shack level operating margin guidance in the script and initial release, I think you mentioned that you expect Shack level operating margins to stabilize in 2020 at 22% to 22.5%.

    關於腳本和初始版本中的 Shack 級營業利潤率指導,我想你提到過你預計 Shack 級營業利潤率將在 2020 年穩定在 22% 至 22.5%。

  • The updated slide deck is 20% to 22.5%.

    更新後的幻燈片是 20% 到 22.5%。

  • If you could just clarify what the guide is.

    如果你能澄清一下指南是什麼。

  • And then related to that, my question is what gives you confidence you'll be able to manage to that 20% long-term operating margin given fiscal year '20 is expected to end with AUVs of $3.8 million to $3.9 million?

    然後與此相關,我的問題是,鑑於 20 財年的 AUV 預計將在 380 萬至 390 萬美元結束,是什麼讓您有信心能夠實現 20% 的長期營業利潤率?

  • Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

    Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • You're absolutely right on the error on the supplemental.

    你對補充的錯誤是完全正確的。

  • So I apologize, everyone, for that confusion.

    所以我為大家的困惑道歉。

  • On Slide 18 of the supplemental deck, there is an error in the Shack level operating profit margin guidance.

    在補充幻燈片的第 18 張幻燈片中,Shack 級別的營業利潤率指南存在錯誤。

  • And the numbers we referred to in the prepared remarks and the earnings release are correct.

    我們在準備好的評論和收益發布中提到的數字是正確的。

  • Our Shack level margin guidance for 2020 is 22% to 22.5%, representing a stabilization of that margin compared to this year.

    我們對 2020 年的 Shack 水平利潤率指導為 22% 至 22.5%,這表明與今年相比該利潤率趨於穩定。

  • So we'll be updating our filing if it hadn't already happened imminently.

    因此,如果它還沒有立即發生,我們將更新我們的文件。

  • Thank you for pointing that out.

    謝謝你指出這一點。

  • And then in terms of -- yes, holding to those original target margins, I mean we're seeing our existing classes of new Shacks at a bank, that $3 million AUV on average and that 20% Shack level margin on average.

    然後就-是的,保持那些最初的目標利潤率,我的意思是我們正在銀行看到我們現有的新 Shacks 類別,平均 AUV 為 300 萬美元,平均為 20% Shack 水平利潤率。

  • You've heard about all these initiatives that we've got going on in the business right now.

    您已經聽說過我們現在在業務中正在進行的所有這些舉措。

  • And we feel pretty confident about some of the returns and results that they're going to continue to deliver.

    我們對他們將繼續提供的一些回報和結果感到非常有信心。

  • We're really embracing use of technology.

    我們真的很喜歡技術的使用。

  • Randy used the op support team as a good example of how we're really rolling out new initiatives across the company, both to always be striving for excellence in operations, but also efficiency in operations, whether that be ERPs like Project Concrete or things like scheduling, rules and tools that we put in the Shacks.

    Randy 將運營支持團隊作為一個很好的例子,說明我們如何真正在整個公司推出新計劃,既要始終追求卓越的運營,又要提高運營效率,無論是像 Project Concrete 這樣的 ERP 還是像我們放在 Shacks 中的日程安排、規則和工具。

  • New formats is another one.

    新格式是另一種格式。

  • I think when we -- certainly, when we first IPO-ed and certainly when this company first started, I don't think we ever envisaged that there could be so many different formats that a Shack could take.

    我認為當我們 - 當然,當我們第一次首次公開募股時,當然當這家公司剛成立時,我認為我們從未設想過 Shack 可以採用這麼多不同的格式。

  • And we're feeling really encouraged by that with every year that goes by, and Randy touched on some of those.

    每一年過去,我們都為此感到非常鼓舞,Randy 談到了其中的一些。

  • So we still feel really good about those numbers.

    所以我們仍然對這些數字感覺很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Andy Barish of Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Andy Barish。

  • Andrew Marc Barish - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Andrew Marc Barish - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Just on the infill strategy.

    就在填充策略上。

  • I understand the market share opportunity.

    我了解市場份額機會。

  • This is, I think, the first time you guys have talked about maybe a same-store sales impact.

    我認為,這是你們第一次談論同店銷售的影響。

  • Can you just give us a little bit more color in terms of what you're thinking?

    你能就你的想法給我們多一點色彩嗎?

  • Is that in certain markets or big markets versus small markets?

    是在某些市場還是大市場與小市場?

  • I guess any additional color would be helpful there.

    我想任何額外的顏色都會有幫助。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Andy.

    謝謝,安迪。

  • We've noted it from time to time.

    我們不時注意到它。

  • You look back, I mean, obviously, we've had a strong couple of years here, but we've had moments in this company's history as a public company where traffic has been negative for a significant period of time.

    你回頭看,我的意思是,很明顯,我們在這裡度過了好幾年,但在這家公司作為一家上市公司的歷史上,我們有過一段很長一段時間流量一直為負的時刻。

  • And we've come upon the question of -- in past years of, hey, do these Shacks cannibalize or they impact other Shacks?

    我們遇到了這樣一個問題——在過去的幾年裡,嘿,這些 Shacks 會相互蠶食還是影響其他 Shacks?

  • And the answer is sometimes they do.

    答案是有時他們會這樣做。

  • We talked about this in the past.

    我們過去談過這個。

  • It's hard exactly to quantify how much.

    很難準確量化多少。

  • But we do think that was part of the end of last year.

    但我們確實認為這是去年底的一部分。

  • We think it will be part of this year.

    我們認為這將是今年的一部分。

  • And it's a strategy as we want to capture total market share and total revenue and opportunity, I think, the strategy we're excited to move forward with, even though it'll have short term and certain impact on Shacks that are nearby.

    這是一種戰略,因為我們希望獲得總市場份額、總收入和機會,我認為,我們很高興能夠推進這一戰略,儘管它會對附近的 Shacks 產生短期和一定的影響。

  • Look at certain regions, just like California and Texas alone, we've more than doubled the size of those regions in the last couple of years.

    看看某些地區,就像僅加利福尼亞州和得克薩斯州一樣,我們在過去幾年中將這些地區的規模擴大了一倍多。

  • That's significant, and that's on such a small base, right?

    這很重要,而且是在這麼小的基礎上,對吧?

  • We had -- we've opened 10 restaurants in the last couple of years in California on a base of 8. We've opened 9 in Texas on a base of 8. These are big places, but we're still focused on the overall sales add.

    過去幾年,我們在加利福尼亞州開了 10 家餐廳,基數為 8。我們在得克薩斯州開了 9 家,基數為 8。這些地方很大,但我們仍然專注於整體銷售額增加。

  • We're adding nearly $130 million in sales in 2019 overall.

    我們在 2019 年整體增加了近 1.3 億美元的銷售額。

  • That's what we're after.

    這就是我們所追求的。

  • Will it impact same-Shack sales at -- from time to time?

    它會時不時地影響 same-Shack 的銷售嗎?

  • Yes, it will.

    是的,它會。

  • We've had that.

    我們有過。

  • And we just experienced that, and we're going to expect to experience some of that this year, but we're going after a much bigger opportunity here in the growth rates that we have.

    我們剛剛經歷了這一點,我們預計今年會經歷其中的一些,但我們正在追求我們擁有的增長率的更大機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John Glass of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約翰格拉斯。

  • John Stephenson Glass - MD

    John Stephenson Glass - MD

  • Two questions, first, can you just elaborate on your decision to extend the period of transition in the aggregators?

    兩個問題,首先,您能否詳細說明您決定延長聚合器的過渡期?

  • How long do you now expect that to go on for, and if you can provide any color as to what you think that impacted your fourth quarter?

    您現在預計這種情況會持續多長時間,您是否可以提供您認為影響第四季度的因素的任何顏色?

  • And then, Randy, as you think about your -- picking up the pace of product innovation in 2020, have you changed your thought about changing how you think about testing protocols?

    然後,蘭迪,當你想到你的——在 2020 年加快產品創新的步伐時,你是否改變了你對改變你對測試協議的看法的想法?

  • Chick'n Bites, for example, I know, while successful, created some noise in the first half of the year just on pricing and product cost, for example.

    例如,我知道 Chick'n Bites 雖然很成功,但在今年上半年僅在定價和產品成本方面就引起了一些爭議。

  • Do you think you've worked those things out that as you innovate this year, you're less likely to see that kind of disruption?

    您是否認為您已經解決了這些問題,在今年進行創新時,您不太可能看到這種顛覆?

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So let's start with menu.

    那麼讓我們從菜單開始吧。

  • Thanks, John.

    謝謝,約翰。

  • Yes, indeed, on the volatility of new menu items, right?

    是的,的確,關於新菜單項的波動性,對吧?

  • I think -- look, we're still a young company.

    我認為 - 看,我們仍然是一家年輕的公司。

  • We're still learning how to roll out things.

    我們仍在學習如何推出東西。

  • We've got only 167 restaurants that we company-operate today.

    我們今天只有 167 家公司經營的餐廳。

  • And there's no doubt, we will own the fact when we need to continue to learn.

    毫無疑問,當我們需要繼續學習時,我們將擁有事實。

  • That's what our Innovation Kitchen has been about.

    這就是我們創新廚房的宗旨。

  • It's been what broader testing has been about.

    這就是更廣泛的測試所涉及的內容。

  • It's what op support is about.

    這就是運營支持的意義所在。

  • So we don't expect the kind of impact that we had on Chick'n Bites.

    所以我們不希望我們對 Chick'n Bites 產生那種影響。

  • And if we do, we'll certainly let you know about it, right?

    如果我們這樣做,我們一定會讓您知道,對嗎?

  • The items that we're returning with this year are generally things that are time-tested, and we certainly understand what their impact is going to be.

    我們今年回歸的物品通常是經過時間考驗的物品,我們當然了解它們的影響。

  • Now you never know exactly what their sales impact could be, but we hope it'll be positive in this year.

    現在你永遠不知道他們的銷售影響到底是什麼,但我們希望今年會是積極的。

  • So I think we're getting better.

    所以我認為我們正在變得更好。

  • We've got a lot of work to do.

    我們有很多工作要做。

  • We're still a young company, and we're going to always push quality in the culinary aspect of what we do.

    我們仍然是一家年輕的公司,我們將始終在我們所做的烹飪方面提高質量。

  • When it comes to delivery and the timing of that, obviously, we did not participate in the growth we expected in the fourth quarter, and the challenge of that transition remains.

    在交付和交付時間方面,顯然,我們沒有參與我們在第四季度預期的增長,而且過渡的挑戰仍然存在。

  • There's no doubt it has an impact, and it's going to be volatile for a while.

    毫無疑問,它有影響,而且會波動一段時間。

  • We're not quite halfway done with the move to exclusivity with Grub, and we're learning a lot.

    我們還沒有完成 Grub 獨占性的一半,我們正在學習很多東西。

  • I think the answer to why has it taken so long or what period of time will it take, lies in a market-by-market learning.

    我認為為什麼要花這麼長時間或需要多長時間的答案在於逐個市場學習。

  • There are some markets that have been easier than others.

    有些市場比其他市場更容易。

  • There are some where some of the tactics we've had haven't been the most successful right out of the gate.

    在某些情況下,我們所採用的某些策略並不是最成功的。

  • So we're thinking about things with Grub, like what kind of marketing works best, where -- what placement, what kind of offer, like a free delivery offer for an initial period, what other type of things happen.

    所以我們正在考慮 Grub 的事情,比如什麼樣的營銷最有效,在哪裡 - 什麼樣的位置,什麼樣的優惠,比如初始階段的免費送貨優惠,還有什麼其他類型的事情會發生。

  • And through all of the Grub transition, we're going to continue to prioritize the guest experience.

    在整個 Grub 過渡期間,我們將繼續優先考慮客戶體驗。

  • That's what matters most to us, especially in delivery, where delivering burgers and fries is a tough thing to do.

    這對我們來說是最重要的,尤其是在送貨方面,送漢堡和薯條是一件很難的事情。

  • So look, there's a lot of good things happening in our partnership.

    所以看,我們的合作夥伴關係中發生了很多好事。

  • We've got a lot to continue to learn, and we're watching it very closely as we look at the future of this.

    我們有很多東西要繼續學習,我們在展望未來時會非常密切地關注它。

  • And it'll take time to transition guests over from current marketplaces over to Grub, and we'll keep you posted on that.

    將訪客從當前市場轉移到 Grub 需要時間,我們會及時通知您。

  • But we're moving ahead.

    但我們正在前進。

  • And as we said, it will have some impact.

    正如我們所說,它會產生一些影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的杰弗裡伯恩斯坦。

  • Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Two questions, just one on the restaurant margin outlook for 2020.

    有兩個問題,一個是關於 2020 年餐廳利潤率前景的問題。

  • Presumably, most of the cost pressures are still outsized, and you are projecting negative comps with sub-2% price.

    據推測,大部分成本壓力仍然過大,並且您預計價格低於 2% 的負補償。

  • I'm just trying to connect the dots there when you compare to 2019, for example, where you had pretty significant deleverage with positive comps.

    例如,當你與 2019 年進行比較時,我只是想把這些點連接起來,在那裡你有相當大的去槓桿化和積極的補償。

  • So I was wondering if you can maybe walk through some of the puts and takes that would give you confidence that at the end of 2020, a flat restaurant margin is reasonable.

    所以我想知道你是否可以通過一些看跌期權和看跌期權讓你相信到 2020 年底,餐廳利潤率持平是合理的。

  • And then the second question was just a comment you made about EBITDA growth, up double digits, just wondering what year might you think that's a reasonable expectation or -- I know you mentioned certain line items you'd be able to lever.

    然後第二個問題只是你對 EBITDA 增長的評論,增長了兩位數,只是想知道你認為哪一年是一個合理的預期,或者 - 我知道你提到了你能夠利用的某些項目。

  • I'm just wondering how you think about that double-digit growth over what time frame.

    我只是想知道您如何看待在什麼時間範圍內實現兩位數的增長。

  • Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

    Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

  • Jeff, it's Tara.

    傑夫,是塔拉。

  • Yes, I mean, starting with the last one.

    是的,我的意思是,從最後一個開始。

  • As you know, we haven't issued updated -- we haven't issued long-term guidance at this point.

    如您所知,我們還沒有發布更新——我們目前還沒有發布長期指導。

  • So that's really more commentary just around how bullish we continue to feel about our ability to grow top and bottom line and just a reflection of the extent to which we are in, as Randy mentioned, major builds and investment mode right now.

    因此,這真的是更多關於我們繼續對我們增加頂線和底線的能力感到樂觀的評論,並且只是反映了我們所處的程度,正如蘭迪提到的,目前主要建設和投資模式。

  • So no specific time horizon on that one, although we did deliver double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth this year.

    所以沒有具體的時間範圍,儘管我們今年確實實現了兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 增長。

  • And in terms of going into next year, yes, I mean, there's a few moving parts in that Shack level profit line.

    就進入明年而言,是的,我的意思是,在 Shack 水平的利潤線上有一些移動部分。

  • As you know, within COGS in 2019, we had a couple of pretty major headwinds, the first being the cost profile of Chick'n Bites, which we called out regularly throughout the year and was really a significant headwind in the first half, in particular, eased over the back half.

    如您所知,在 2019 年的 COGS 中,我們遇到了幾個非常大的阻力,第一個是 Chick'n Bites 的成本概況,我們全年定期召集它,並且在上半年確實是一個很大的阻力,在特別是後半部分有所緩解。

  • So we're now not only comping on that but also have an improved cost profile around that menu item just as we've continued to refine it.

    因此,我們現在不僅在這方面進行了改進,而且還在繼續改進該菜單項的同時改進了該菜單項的成本概況。

  • Also, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we are seeing beef beginning to level off, which is the biggest driver to that line.

    此外,正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,我們看到牛肉開始趨於平穩,這是該產品線的最大推動力。

  • And so we're expecting to have some potential improvement and some potential leverage in the COGS line in 2020.

    因此,我們預計 2020 年 COGS 產品線會有一些潛在的改進和一些潛在的影響力。

  • Labor, a bunch of puts and takes.

    勞動,一堆投入和投入。

  • We touched on those.

    我們談到了那些。

  • So one of the labor headwinds is obviously around new Shack openings.

    因此,勞動力逆風之一顯然是圍繞新的 Shack 開口。

  • We've talked about that quite explicitly as time goes on, and it may be a benefit as we do more of an infill strategy and less focus on new markets with that labor line and new Shacks leveling off a bit quicker than otherwise would.

    隨著時間的推移,我們已經非常明確地討論了這一點,這可能是一個好處,因為我們做了更多的填充策略,而不是關注新市場,因為勞動力線和新的 Shacks 比其他方式更快地穩定下來。

  • Benefit of the 53rd week, obviously, we touched on.

    第 53 週的好處,顯然,我們談到了。

  • And we will still have inflation in that labor line, but just -- we've had some serious double-digit inflation in certain markets around the country in the last year or a couple of years, the -- New York being no exception.

    而且我們仍然會在勞動力領域出現通貨膨脹,但只是 - 我們在過去一年或幾年中在全國某些市場出現了一些嚴重的兩位數通貨膨脹, - 紐約也不例外。

  • So we're seeing some of that ease a bit, which helps, plus all the labor optimization initiatives that we've listed and have talked about at length.

    因此,我們看到其中一些有所緩解,這有所幫助,再加上我們已經列出並詳細討論的所有勞動力優化計劃。

  • And then OpEx, again, we are -- one of the benefits of our delivery partnership is a sustainable cost economic model, which will start to flow through that line as the year goes on and as we move to full exclusivity.

    然後是 OpEx,我們再次 - 我們交付合作夥伴關係的好處之一是可持續的成本經濟模型,隨著時間的推移和我們轉向完全排他性,它將開始流經這條線。

  • So there's a lot going on that gives us confidence that we can start to stabilize that margin, which is great.

    所以有很多事情讓我們有信心我們可以開始穩定這個利潤率,這很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Chris O'Cull with Stifel.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Chris O'Cull 與 Stifel 的對話。

  • Christopher Thomas O'Cull - MD & Senior Analyst

    Christopher Thomas O'Cull - MD & Senior Analyst

  • My question relates to the comp guidance.

    我的問題與 comp 指南有關。

  • I know you're expecting it to improve over the course of the year, but it sounds like conversions to the one delivery partner is going to remain a pretty heavy drag on the comps for a little while.

    我知道你希望它在一年中有所改善,但聽起來像轉換為一個交付合作夥伴將在一段時間內繼續對 comps 造成相當大的拖累。

  • And so maybe can you help us understand which particular initiatives you're most excited for in terms of either offsetting that drag or helping to improve the comp over the course of the year, and maybe when you expect some of those things to start to roll out?

    因此,也許您能幫助我們了解在抵消這一拖累或幫助改善一年中的競爭方面您最感興趣的特定舉措,以及您希望其中一些事情何時開始實施出去?

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Chris.

    謝謝,克里斯。

  • I think first of all, the compares get easier as the year goes, right?

    我認為首先,隨著時間的推移,比較會變得更容易,對吧?

  • We had our toughest -- our strongest quarters in the first half of the year, and then that obviously got us to the weakest quarter in the fourth.

    我們在今年上半年度過了最艱難的 - 我們最強勁的季度,然後這顯然讓我們進入了第四季度最弱的季度。

  • So generally, that trend, the compares will get easier.

    所以一般來說,這種趨勢,比較會變得更容易。

  • They're tougher over this next couple of quarters.

    在接下來的幾個季度裡,他們會變得更加強硬。

  • The stuff that we're most excited about, I would say, initially, will be, hopefully, some of the menu and, over time, adding to our digital opportunities.

    我想說的是,我們最興奮的事情最初會是一些菜單,並且隨著時間的推移會增加我們的數字機會。

  • Tara mentioned delivery as a service through our own channels.

    Tara 提到通過我們自己的渠道交付即服務。

  • We're hoping for that towards the end of this year, and then all the initiatives really that I mentioned within the business that we hope will continue to turn things on.

    我們希望在今年年底前實現這一目標,然後我在業務中提到的所有舉措,我們希望能夠繼續推動發展。

  • And they're the strategies that we've employed in years past and we believe are the core of the brand today.

    它們是我們過去幾年採用的策略,我們相信它們是當今品牌的核心。

  • So those things are -- we're really excited about.

    所以那些事情 - 我們真的很興奮。

  • So I think it will be higher pressure in the first half of the year, and we're hopeful that, that intensity ease throughout the end.

    所以我認為今年上半年壓力會更大,我們希望這種強度在年底有所緩解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of David Tarantino of Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 David Tarantino。

  • David E. Tarantino - Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst

    David E. Tarantino - Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst

  • A couple of questions on the comp trends you've seen over the last 4 quarters.

    關於您在過去 4 個季度中看到的競爭趨勢的幾個問題。

  • It's been a pretty meaningful swing in the comp, I think by 700-plus basis points from the start of the year to the end of the year.

    這是一個非常有意義的變化,我認為從年初到年底有 700 多個基點。

  • And I was wondering, one, you've called out delivery across the year as being one of the issues.

    我想知道,一個,你把全年的交付稱為問題之一。

  • I was wondering if you'd be willing to quantify how much impact you're seeing on that now versus maybe what you experienced in the beginning of the year when you didn't have this issue.

    我想知道你是否願意量化你現在看到的影響與你在今年年初沒有這個問題時所經歷的影響。

  • And then secondly, one of the things you haven't talked about is whether you're seeing any operational impact on the comps, whether it's through throughput or any other metrics you're looking at underneath the surface as to sort of gauge what's happening.

    然後其次,你沒有談到的一件事是你是否看到對 comps 的任何操作影響,無論是通過吞吐量還是你在表面下查看的任何其他指標,以衡量正在發生的事情.

  • So any perspective on all of that would be helpful.

    因此,對所有這些的任何看法都會有所幫助。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Well, we're just starting with the comps and the trends of the year.

    好吧,我們只是從今年的比較和趨勢開始。

  • I mean you've also got to look at it versus 2018 and how those compares set up.

    我的意思是你還必須看看它與 2018 年的情況以及這些比較是如何建立的。

  • The other thing, I think, we're not going to break out the -- we're not going to quantify digital delivery of those percentages today.

    另一件事,我認為,我們不會打破 - 我們今天不會量化這些百分比的數字交付。

  • But what Tara said is the growth rate declined, right, of delivery where we had a couple of years of that continuing to grow at a pretty rapid rate, which obviously contributed, as we talked about, to the first half of '19.

    但是 Tara 所說的是交付的增長率下降了,我們有幾年繼續以相當快的速度增長,正如我們所說的那樣,這顯然對 19 年上半年有所貢獻。

  • As that growth rate declined and significant with our transition over to a single partner that we announced in August, that was a real part of it, and that is the expected -- a part of what we're expecting for this year.

    隨著我們在 8 月份宣布向單一合作夥伴的過渡,該增長率下降且顯著,這是它的真實部分,這是預期的 - 這是我們今年預期的一部分。

  • In terms of the operational impact to comps, we're continuing to just improve the way that we operate.

    就對 comp 的運營影響而言,我們正在繼續改進我們的運營方式。

  • I'm not sure that comps really impacted, whether they're up or down generally.

    我不確定 comps 是否真的受到影響,無論它們總體上是上升還是下降。

  • I'm not sure if there's a specific question you want me to think on.

    我不確定您是否希望我考慮某個具體問題。

  • But as I think about that, we're -- I don't think comps are necessarily -- obviously, we love running busy restaurants.

    但正如我所想的那樣,我們 - 我認為補償不一定 - 顯然,我們喜歡經營繁忙的餐廳。

  • And when we're busy, that's a lot more fun and we've got to staff up for it.

    當我們很忙的時候,那會更有趣,我們必須為此做好準備。

  • When we miss, it impacts us.

    當我們錯過時,它會影響我們。

  • When we're overstaffed, we've got to react to make sure we run better restaurants.

    當我們人手過多時,我們必須做出反應以確保我們經營更好的餐廳。

  • But just as a reminder, look, there's still just about half the Shacks in this company in the comp base.

    但提醒一下,看,這家公司的 Shacks 仍然只有大約一半在補償基礎上。

  • Another reminder, talked about this earlier in the year, 60% of all the restaurants that we company-operate have opened in the last 3 years and nearly half in the last 2. And we're going to open another 25% new Shacks this year.

    另一個提醒,今年早些時候談到過這個問題,我們公司經營的所有餐廳中有 60% 在過去 3 年開業,近一半在過去 2 年開業。我們將在今年開設另外 25% 的新 Shacks年。

  • So we're growing rapidly.

    所以我們正在快速成長。

  • There's a lot for us to shake out in that and continue to learn and do better.

    我們在這方面有很多東西可以擺脫,並繼續學習並做得更好。

  • And that'll impact comps positively and negatively over time.

    隨著時間的推移,這會對補償產生積極和消極的影響。

  • We're building this for more than just the next few quarters.

    我們不僅要在接下來的幾個季度中構建它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Charles with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Charles 和 Cowen 的對話。

  • Andrew Michael Charles - Director

    Andrew Michael Charles - Director

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Randy, can you dive a little bit more to the behavior of stores that are exclusively running on Grub?

    蘭迪,你能更深入地了解一下專門在 Grub 上運行的商店的行為嗎?

  • And clearly what I'm getting at is are you seeing similar sales performance across markets once the Grubhub exclusivity is turned on?

    很明顯,我的意思是,一旦 Grubhub 的排他性開啟,您是否會在各個市場看到類似的銷售業績?

  • And if not, can you provide some guardrails around what you are seeing in the early days here?

    如果沒有,您能否圍繞您在早期在這裡看到的內容提供一些護欄?

  • Then my separate question is just you talked a little bit about -- touched on this a little bit before but just wondering if you can expand on it around what do you need to see that would lead you to accelerate the transition to Grubhub?

    然後我的另一個問題是你剛才談到了一點——之前稍微談到了這一點,但只是想知道你是否可以圍繞你需要看到的東西展開它,這將導致你加速向 Grubhub 的過渡?

  • Or conversely slow it down, slow down the pace of transition?

    還是反過來放慢速度,放慢轉型的步伐?

  • I know you're not giving out dates, but just things that you're thinking about as you go through it.

    我知道你不會給出日期,而只是給出你在經歷它時正在考慮的事情。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So Andrew, it's a really good question.

    所以安德魯,這是一個非常好的問題。

  • I think it really is a -- as we've talked about during pilots for the last more than 2 years, the regional strength of various marketplaces is a powerful thing.

    我認為這真的是——正如我們在過去 2 年多的試點期間所談到的那樣,各種市場的區域優勢是一件很強大的事情。

  • It definitely is.

    絕對是。

  • And that's mostly what we're working with Grub on as we partner towards better marketing efforts and launching different markets as we have.

    這就是我們與 Grub 合作的主要內容,因為我們合作以更好的營銷工作並像我們一樣推出不同的市場。

  • Certain ones, it's a little bit easier to move people over.

    某些人,將人們轉移過來要容易一些。

  • Others, it's a little bit harder, and everything in between.

    其他人,有點難,介於兩者之間。

  • So really, what we're talking about here is extending the amount of time so that we work together with our partner in figuring out what does that really look like?

    所以真的,我們在這裡談論的是延長時間,以便我們與我們的合作夥伴一起弄清楚那到底是什麼樣子?

  • What are the best tactics in each market?

    每個市場的最佳策略是什麼?

  • And by the way, different tactics work differently in each market.

    順便說一句,不同的策略在每個市場中的作用不同。

  • So this is the hard part.

    所以這是困難的部分。

  • I think you know this.

    我想你知道這一點。

  • You're studying this deeply.

    你正在深入研究這個。

  • One of the other things happening in this industry, we know, is the massive changes in who's gaining and losing share throughout the delivery business and where there may or not be consolidation changes.

    我們知道,這個行業正在發生的其他事情之一是,在整個交付業務中誰在獲得和失去份額以及可能存在或不存在整合變化的地方發生了巨大變化。

  • And we all know that within this year, we're obviously going to see continued changes through the major strength of all those partners, all of which we have some relationship with.

    我們都知道,在今年內,我們顯然會看到所有這些合作夥伴的主要力量帶來的持續變化,我們與所有這些合作夥伴都有一定的關係。

  • And we appreciate all those relationships.

    我們感謝所有這些關係。

  • It's been a fun launch with Grub.

    Grub 的發布很有趣。

  • We've done a lot of things right, and we've learned a lot.

    我們做了很多正確的事情,也學到了很多東西。

  • And there's a lot for us to go.

    我們還有很多事情要做。

  • So we're not giving out a time frame yet.

    所以我們還沒有給出一個時間框架。

  • It's going to be a market-by-market decision.

    這將是一個逐個市場的決定。

  • And it's really still just so early in the process that we want to make sure we take our time, and we're cautious and we understand the drivers between our guests' behavior market-by-market.

    現在還處於這個過程的早期,我們要確保我們花時間,我們很謹慎,我們了解不同市場客人行為之間的驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Nick Setyan of Wedbush Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Nick Setyan。

  • Nerses Setyan - Senior VP of Equity Research & Senior Equity Analyst

    Nerses Setyan - Senior VP of Equity Research & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just to follow up on the last question.

    只是跟進最後一個問題。

  • Any chance you could update us, sort of which markets have been transitioned and which markets we're still kind of testing?

    您是否有機會更新我們,哪些市場已經過渡,哪些市場我們仍在測試?

  • And then just to confirm, we don't really have a set date in terms of when the transition may be complete.

    然後只是為了確認,我們並沒有真正確定過渡何時可以完成。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So no set date, Nick.

    所以沒有確定日期,尼克。

  • Generally, we've transitioned the DC area, the Boston area, the Chicago area, some of Texas and some smaller markets as we've gone.

    一般來說,我們已經轉移了 DC 地區、波士頓地區、芝加哥地區、德克薩斯州的一些地區和一些較小的市場。

  • And then there's -- when we open new Shacks, we're generally opening them with only Grub.

    然後是——當我們打開新的 Shacks 時,我們通常只使用 Grub 打開它們。

  • So you may see a new Shack in New Jersey, for instance, where New Jersey has not transitioned yet fully, but we have a lot of Shacks in New Jersey who are exclusive on Grub, so it's kind of a rolling process there.

    所以你可能會在新澤西看到一個新的 Shack,例如,新澤西還沒有完全過渡,但是我們在新澤西有很多 Shack 都是 Grub 獨占的,所以這是一個滾動過程。

  • But those are the main kind of 3 or 4 big ones that have transitioned while the others are continuing to be multi-partner at this time.

    但這些是主要的 3 或 4 大公司已經轉型,而其他公司此時繼續成為多方合作夥伴。

  • And ultimately, Nick, I think the big important thing is we're also still building our own channels here.

    最後,尼克,我認為最重要的是我們還在這裡建立自己的渠道。

  • I want to make sure that you've got that.

    我想確保你已經明白了。

  • And our goal is to continue to build our own channels to strengthen our guests' relationship with Shake Shack directly and continue to benefit from the strength of marketplaces, but also continuing over this coming years to build reasons to go to Shack channels.

    我們的目標是繼續建立我們自己的渠道,以直接加強我們的客人與 Shake Shack 的關係,並繼續從市場的力量中受益,同時在未來幾年繼續建立進入 Shack 渠道的理由。

  • We'll be investing deeply in that in this coming year.

    在接下來的一年裡,我們將在這方面進行深入投資。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jake Bartlett of SunTrust.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Jake Bartlett。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Jake, are you there?

    傑克,你在嗎?

  • Jake Rowland Bartlett - Analyst

    Jake Rowland Bartlett - Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

    你能聽到我嗎?

  • Yes...

    是的...

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Okay, we've got you now.

    好的,我們現在找到你了。

  • Jake Rowland Bartlett - Analyst

    Jake Rowland Bartlett - Analyst

  • Good, good.

    好好。

  • So this is maybe a little bit redundant, but I think I'm hoping for still a little more clarification.

    所以這可能有點多餘,但我想我希望得到更多的澄清。

  • But it would seem to me that as you've gone from, say, 25% integrated to Grub to now 50% a month or 2 later that probably the impact is getting worse.

    但在我看來,當你從 25% 集成到 Grub 到現在一個月或 2 個月後集成 50% 時,影響可能會變得更糟。

  • And so I'm just -- I'm wondering whether it gets worse before it gets better.

    所以我只是 - 我想知道它是否會在變得更好之前變得更糟。

  • And just my thought was that as other partners pull away from the system, that's going to be kind of the lowest point as -- during the transition.

    我的想法是,隨著其他合作夥伴退出系統,這將是過渡期間的最低點。

  • Is that the right way to think about it?

    這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • Or am I missing kind of any offsets?

    還是我缺少任何補償?

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Well, I don't think you're missing it.

    好吧,我不認為你錯過了它。

  • I think the reality is we're not quite 50%, and I don't think we'd use the words it's getting worse.

    我認為現實情況是我們還不到 50%,而且我認為我們不會使用它變得更糟這樣的詞。

  • I think we've said since the beginning of this, there will be significant impact, so the more that we do, the impact can grow.

    我想我們從一開始就說過,會產生重大影響,所以我們做的越多,影響就會越大。

  • So -- and it also is going to depend on the market, right?

    所以——這也將取決於市場,對吧?

  • As we said in the previous answers here, the markets -- certain markets will be easier than others, where there's relative strength depending on the partner.

    正如我們在之前的回答中所說的那樣,市場——某些市場會比其他市場更容易,這些市場的相對實力取決於合作夥伴。

  • So we're going to keep watching very slowly, Jake, and take our time.

    所以我們將繼續非常緩慢地觀看,傑克,慢慢來。

  • There's -- obviously, as we're taking off certain marketplaces in certain markets completely, that has impact.

    有 - 顯然,當我們完全取消某些市場中的某些市場時,這會產生影響。

  • So that contributes to a more challenging environment.

    因此,這有助於營造更具挑戰性的環境。

  • That's all built into the guidance that we have for this year.

    這一切都包含在我們今年的指南中。

  • It's part of why we're being conservative about the guidance that we've given today.

    這就是為什麼我們對今天給出的指導持保守態度的部分原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。

  • John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

    John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • You called out, I guess, warm and favorable weather in the fourth quarter of '18 as a part of your difficult comparison.

    我猜你在 18 年第四季度呼喚了溫暖而有利的天氣,作為你困難比較的一部分。

  • I mean are we seeing a similar benefit in the first quarter of '20 in various markets just because you did call out that '18 comparison?

    我的意思是,我們是否在 20 年第一季度在各個市場看到了類似的收益,只是因為您確實進行了 18 年的比較?

  • And I have a separate question as well.

    我還有一個單獨的問題。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • John, just on that, we're not going to give mid-quarter guidance.

    約翰,就此而言,我們不會提供中期指導。

  • As you know, we never do that.

    如您所知,我們從不這樣做。

  • But it is built into our total guidance for the year, the expectation's there.

    但它已納入我們今年的總體指導中,期望就在那裡。

  • It's been up and down, obviously, in various regions in the first quarter.

    顯然,第一季度各個地區的情況都在上下波動。

  • So that we're not going to comment further on that, but go ahead with your second question.

    所以我們不打算對此做進一步評論,但繼續你的第二個問題。

  • John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

    John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Understood.

    明白了。

  • The decline in average unit volumes across the entire system, I think it was $4.4 million in fiscal '18, and it's currently guided to a range of $3.7 million to $3.8 million in fiscal '20.

    整個系統的平均單位銷量下降,我認為在 18 財年為 440 萬美元,目前在 20 財年指導範圍為 370 萬至 380 萬美元。

  • And obviously I understand the new units and new units, which were guided to be lower than average unit volumes.

    顯然我了解新單位和新單位,它們被指導低於平均單位數量。

  • But I was hoping just to get a little bit of help in terms of, like, where you see the fiscal '19 class year as a class year to call it in those terms, kind of settling in average unit volumes, where you think '20 will settle in.

    但我希望能在以下方面得到一點幫助,比如,你把 19 財年的學年看作一個學年,用這些術語來稱呼它,在平均單位數量上解決,你認為 ' 20人將入住。

  • Just looking optically from the outside of the company, maybe if I didn't know the company was named Shake Shack, I would say this company might kind of, I guess, benefit from opening fewer and better units given that average unit volume decline, which, on a 24-month basis, is actually fairly steep on a relative basis.

    從公司外部的角度來看,如果我不知道這家公司名為 Shake Shack,我想說這家公司可能會因為平均單位銷量下降而受益於開設更少更好的單位,在 24 個月的基礎上,相對而言實際上是相當陡峭的。

  • So firstly, if we can talk about the '19 and '20 store classes where you think they're going to settle.

    所以首先,如果我們可以談談你認為他們將要解決的 '19 和 '20 商店類別。

  • And then secondly, and I think the more important question for me, I mean, are we at the point where the number of company-operated Shake Shacks in the United States should begin to stabilize in absolute terms in '21?

    其次,我認為對我來說更重要的問題是,我們是否處於美國公司運營的 Shake Shacks 數量應該在 21 年開始穩定的絕對值?

  • And would you even consider a potentially lower number kind of looking at '20 as a relative near-term peak in terms of the number of units that you're opening?

    就您要開設的單位數量而言,您甚至會考慮將 20 年視為相對近期的峰值嗎?

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • So yes, John, look, I think the AUV decline is consistent with how we've guided since the beginning of time here, right?

    所以是的,約翰,你看,我認為 AUV 的下降與我們從一開始就在這裡指導的方式一致,對吧?

  • We know we've outperformed for many years.

    我們知道我們多年來一直表現出色。

  • And -- but the AUV guide is consistent with how we think about generally the average of classes being around that $3 million AUV over the long term.

    而且——但 AUV 指南與我們對長期平均班級約為 300 萬美元 AUV 的看法一致。

  • Obviously, we've outperformed that.

    顯然,我們已經超越了它。

  • Obviously, we've outperformed that on average in 2018, '19.

    顯然,我們在 2018 年和 19 年的平均表現優於平均水平。

  • And we expect to be right around there for 2020, which leads you to where it is.

    我們預計 2020 年就在那裡,這將帶您到達它所在的位置。

  • I don't think I would at all look at this and say, well, maybe we should slow down and just do some of the bigger ones.

    我認為我根本不會看著這個說,好吧,也許我們應該放慢速度,只做一些更大的事情。

  • I mean look at the opportunity we have, we're adding nearly $130 million in sales last year.

    我的意思是看看我們擁有的機會,我們去年的銷售額增加了近 1.3 億美元。

  • Look at what we're expecting to add this year, another well over another 100 -- roughly $120 million in total revenue again this year.

    看看我們今年預計會增加多少,今年又增加了 100 多個——大約 1.2 億美元的總收入。

  • Just because it's lower than it has been, it doesn't mean it's not a great investment.

    僅僅因為它比以前低,並不意味著它不是一項很好的投資。

  • It doesn't mean it's not a great return on capital.

    這並不意味著它的資本回報率不高。

  • And we're going to continue to deploy capital where we think we can grow restaurants.

    我們將繼續在我們認為可以發展餐館的地方部署資金。

  • We only have 167 restaurants that we own in this country.

    我們在這個國家只有 167 家餐廳。

  • There's less than 200 total in this country.

    這個國家總共不到200個。

  • We have a massive opportunity here, abroad, and we're going to continue to grow restaurants.

    我們在這里和國外都有巨大的機會,我們將繼續發展餐館。

  • Hard to say when that levels off.

    很難說什麼時候趨於平穩。

  • Of course, there's going to be a year where the number, whether it's 40 to 42 this year, as we look to the future, what the right number per year will be.

    當然,在我們展望未來的時候,無論今年是 40 到 42 人,每年都會有一個合適的數字。

  • And we'll keep you posted on that.

    我們會及時通知您。

  • But we don't expect that to decline anytime soon.

    但我們預計這種情況不會很快下降。

  • We've got a huge opportunity.

    我們有一個巨大的機會。

  • Great real estate opportunities continue to be there for us, and they're going to be in varied shapes and sizes.

    巨大的房地產機會繼續為我們服務,而且它們的形狀和大小各不相同。

  • Listen to my comments from earlier, we've done a few more food courts last year.

    聽聽我之前的評論,去年我們又做了幾個美食廣場。

  • We'll do some more this year.

    今年我們會做更多。

  • Those can sometimes be lower volume and sometimes be higher profitability depending on the restaurants.

    根據餐廳的不同,這些有時可能是較低的數量,有時可能是更高的盈利能力。

  • As we open up more formats, we're going to see a varied range of volumes across the Shacks across the country.

    隨著我們開放更多格式,我們將在全國各地的 Shacks 看到各種各樣的捲。

  • And it's something we're going to keep building.

    這是我們將繼續建設的東西。

  • We are geared towards growth.

    我們致力於增長。

  • We think we haven't even really scratched the surface of this company's opportunity in this country and globally.

    我們認為我們甚至還沒有真正觸及這家公司在這個國家和全球的機會的表面。

  • And we're certainly going to keep going.

    我們肯定會繼續前進。

  • And we're not going to let a metric of a declining AUV be something to stop us when those AUVs continue to be really impressive.

    當這些 AUV 繼續令人印象深刻時,我們不會讓 AUV 下降的指標阻止我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from the line of Brett Levy of MKM Partners.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Brett Levy。

  • Brett Saul Levy - Executive Director

    Brett Saul Levy - Executive Director

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • If you could share a little bit more on how you're thinking about G&A, not just this year, but also in the years out.

    如果您能分享更多關於您對 G&A 的看法,不僅是今年,還有未來幾年。

  • I think you talked about the headquarters, ongoing investments in ops, the tech move.

    我想你談到了總部、對運營的持續投資、技術舉措。

  • How should we think about it from a pipeline and when you think either modest or meaningful leverage does become possible?

    我們應該如何從管道中考慮它,以及當您認為適度或有意義的槓桿作用確實成為可能時?

  • And without obviously giving the keys to the castle, can you talk about some of the potential ideas that we could see in late '20 into '21 and beyond?

    在沒有明顯給出城堡鑰匙的情況下,你能談談我們在 20 世紀末到 21 世紀及以後可能看到的一些潛在想法嗎?

  • Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

    Tara M. Comonte - President & CFO

  • Brett.

    布雷特。

  • Yes, I mean we've talked pretty consistently about G&A for a while now.

    是的,我的意思是我們已經有一段時間一直在談論 G&A 了。

  • And I'm not sure that I'm about to give you any new news on this one, which is the way we think about G&A right now with where we are at our stage of growth, is we think about G&A as a very focused important investment line for us right now.

    而且我不確定我是否會給你任何關於這個的新消息,這是我們現在考慮 G&A 的方式以及我們處於增長階段的方式,我們是否認為 G&A 是一個非常專注的現在對我們來說很重要的投資線。

  • There are a whole host of areas that we're focused on, whether it be from people to op to technology to marketing to data and insights to development and training and hiring and all these really, really important parts of the company that are fundamental to our success to date and our continued growth.

    我們關注的領域有很多,無論是從人到選擇到技術到營銷,再到數據和洞察力,再到發展、培訓和招聘,以及公司所有這些非常非常重要的部分,這些部分對於我們迄今為止的成功和我們的持續增長。

  • So we're bullish on our opportunity to continue to invest with compelling returns.

    因此,我們看好我們有機會繼續以可觀的回報進行投資。

  • We're investing ahead of sales in many cases.

    在許多情況下,我們會先於銷售進行投資。

  • And I think we'll do our best to continue to try and explain those to you and highlight those to you.

    我認為我們會盡最大努力繼續嘗試向您解釋這些內容並向您強調這些內容。

  • I mean pricing is a perfect example.

    我的意思是定價就是一個很好的例子。

  • We're investing right now in a pricing study, pretty extensive pricing study across the country, right?

    我們現在正在投資一項定價研究,在全國范圍內進行相當廣泛的定價研究,對吧?

  • That's an investment that isn't tied to revenue today.

    這是一項與今天的收入無關的投資。

  • We may choose to use it to inform our growth strategy and our pricing strategy in the future.

    我們可能會選擇使用它來為我們未來的增長戰略和定價戰略提供信息。

  • So I think you'll continue to see us make decisions like that whilst committing to delivering leverage in that line over the long term.

    因此,我認為您會繼續看到我們做出這樣的決定,同時致力於在該領域長期發揮影響力。

  • But again, 167 Shacks, that could be a way off.

    但同樣,167 Shacks 可能還有一段路要走。

  • And I think we feel really good about that.

    我認為我們對此感覺非常好。

  • We feel -- we're excited about the multiple opportunities that we have to continue to invest and would far rather be in that position than struggling to try and figure out where to put our money.

    我們感到 - 我們對我們必須繼續投資的多種機會感到興奮,並且寧願處於那個位置而不是努力嘗試找出把我們的錢放在哪裡。

  • That is not our challenge right now.

    這不是我們現在的挑戰。

  • So -- but absolutely, over the long term, that line item will level as the business becomes more mature, but that's just not a today or a short-term thing.

    所以——但絕對是,從長遠來看,隨著業務變得更加成熟,該行項目將趨於穩定,但這不是今天或短期的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

    我們已經結束了問答環節。

  • I will now turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉回給管理層,聽取任何結束語。

  • Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

    Randall J. Garutti - CEO & Director

  • I just want to thank everybody for being on the call today.

    我只想感謝大家今天的電話會議。

  • I appreciate the time, and we'll keep you posted as we head into another year of exciting growth for Shake Shack.

    感謝您抽出寶貴的時間,在我們進入 Shake Shack 令人興奮的又一年增長之際,我們會及時通知您。

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference.

    今天的會議到此結束。

  • You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    此時您可以斷開線路。

  • Thanks for your participation.

    感謝您的參與。