Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss the results for our first quarter 2022. Joining me on today's call are Elizabeth Spaulding, CEO of Stitch Fix; and Dan Jedda, CFO. We have posted complete first quarter 2022 financial results and a press release on the IR section of our website, investors.stitchfix.com. A link to the webcast of today's conference call can also be found on the site.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論我們 2022 年第一季度的結果。與我一起參加今天電話會議的有 Stitch Fix 首席執行官 Elizabeth Spaulding；和首席財務官 Dan Jedda。我們已在我們網站 investors.stitchfix.com 的 IR 部分發布了完整的 2022 年第一季度財務業績和新聞稿。也可以在網站上找到指向今天電話會議網絡廣播的鏈接。

We would like to remind everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements on this call which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. Please review our filings with the SEC for a discussion of factors that could cause the results to differ.

我們想提醒大家，我們將就本次電話會議做出前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中預期的結果存在重大差異。報告的結果不應被視為未來業績的指標。請查看我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以討論可能導致結果不同的因素。

Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today's date. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the press release on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results.

另請注意，本次電話會議的前瞻性陳述是基於截至今天我們可獲得的信息。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。在這次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們 IR 網站上的新聞稿中提供了與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。這些非 GAAP 措施無意替代我們的 GAAP 結果。

Finally, this call in its entirety is being webcast on our IR website. A replay of this call will be available on the website shortly.

最後，我們的 IR 網站上正在對此次電話會議進行完整的網絡直播。該電話的重播將很快在網站上提供。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Elizabeth.

我現在想把電話轉給伊麗莎白。

Thanks, Tanny.

謝謝，坦尼。

After the market closed today, we issued a press release with details on our quarterly performance and outlook. In Q1, we delivered top line revenue of $581 million, representing 19% year-on-year growth. We also achieved our highest gross margin ever of 47%, along with $38 million in adjusted EBITDA. We ended the quarter with 4.2 million active clients, an increase of 11% from a year ago. At the same time, our sequential net client additions were lower than prior quarters, and we are currently making changes to get this moving in the right direction.

今天收市後，我們發布了一份新聞稿，詳細介紹了我們的季度業績和展望。第一季度，我們實現了 5.81 億美元的收入，同比增長 19%。我們還實現了 47% 的有史以來最高毛利率，以及 3800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。本季度末，我們擁有 420 萬活躍客戶，比去年同期增長 11%。與此同時，我們的連續淨客戶增加量低於前幾個季度，我們目前正在做出改變，以使其朝著正確的方向發展。

We are in a major learning phase right now as we build out our new Freestyle experience in full and we opted in Q1 to be conservative with marketing spend as we optimize our new onboarding experience and conversion. I will discuss this more ahead.

我們現在正處於一個主要的學習階段，因為我們正在全面構建新的 Freestyle 體驗，並且我們在第一季度選擇保守營銷支出，因為我們優化了新的入職體驗和轉換。我將在前面對此進行更多討論。

Today, I will first share highlights on the quarter and our recent launch of Freestyle. Then we'll discuss why our approach is so highly differentiated in apparel retail. And finally, I will share our focus areas as we scale our ecosystem of personalized shopping, styling and inspiration.

今天，我將首先分享本季度的亮點以及我們最近推出的 Freestyle。然後我們將討論為什麼我們的方法在服裝零售中如此差異化。最後，我將分享我們在擴展個性化購物、造型和靈感生態系統時的重點領域。

First, on Q1. We've grown top line net revenue for Freestyle 40% year-over-year. We saw penetration increased quarter-over-quarter as we continue to see our clients leveraging both Fixes and Freestyle, demonstrating the complementarity of our growing offering. We are also capturing more purchase occasions through Freestyle and product categories that have been underrepresented in Fixes such as footwear, dresses, outerwear, accessories and sleep and loungewear.

首先，關於第一季度。 Freestyle 的營收淨收入同比增長了 40%。我們看到滲透率環比增長，因為我們繼續看到我們的客戶同時使用 Fixes 和 Freestyle，這證明了我們不斷增長的產品的互補性。我們還通過 Freestyle 和 Fixes 中代表性不足的產品類別（例如鞋類、連衣裙、外套、配飾以及睡衣和家居服）捕捉更多購買場合。

Today, these categories represent $90 billion in the U.S. women's market alone, demonstrate an opportunity ahead of us. In fact, footwear, accessories and dresses together saw an over 50% increase year-over-year in Freestyle, which is 5x the rate of growth we see in Fixes for the same categories in the same period.

今天，這些類別僅在美國女性市場就代表了 900 億美元，展示了我們面前的機遇。事實上，鞋類、配飾和連衣裙的 Freestyle 同比增長超過 50%，是同期同一類別 Fixes 增長率的 5 倍。

We also enjoyed growth in our Fix offering, which benefited from the first full quarter impact of Fix preview, now rolled out to the U.S. and U.K. women's and men's client populations as of the end of Q4 FY '21. As a result of our innovations with Fix preview, we continue to see average order value increase driven by strength in heat rates and continued satisfaction with over 80% of our first Fix clients in the quarter, purchasing at least one item ensuring that they look forward to their second Fix.

我們還享受了 Fix 產品的增長，這得益於 Fix 預覽的第一個完整季度影響，截至 21 財年第四季度末，該產品現已推廣到美國和英國的女性和男性客戶群。由於我們對 Fix 預覽進行了創新，我們繼續看到平均訂單價值增加，這是由熱耗率的優勢推動的，並且本季度超過 80% 的第一批 Fix 客戶持續滿意，至少購買了一件商品以確保他們期待到他們的第二個修復。

When looking across both Freestyle and Fix, our revenue per active client topped $500 for the second quarter in a row and reaching a record high of $524. Stepping back, this expansion into Freestyle represents an evolution of our business which you can think of as Stitch Fix 2.0. There will be significant learning and experimenting to build its future of retail experience.

縱觀 Freestyle 和 Fix，我們每個活躍客戶的收入連續第二個季度超過 500 美元，並創下 524 美元的歷史新高。退一步說，這種向 Freestyle 的擴展代表了我們業務的演變，您可以將其視為 Stitch Fix 2.0。將進行重要的學習和試驗，以打造其未來的零售體驗。

We may experience return impacts of cannibalization. We will be implementing new systems, and we are building new workflows. All of this learning of new motions is in service of building a great customer experience, and we will need to optimize these. We do not anticipate a linear journey.

我們可能會經歷同類化的回報影響。我們將實施新系統，我們正在構建新的工作流程。所有這些新動作的學習都是為了打造出色的客戶體驗，我們需要對其進行優化。我們不期望線性旅程。

Specifically on new client additions, with Freescale now available in addition to our Fix offering, we are learning how best to wrap clients into the right experience for them. We've been testing client onboarding flows, whether a client comes directly to our main site or lands on a product detail page through paid search or other paid channels. We see significant new client potential ahead as Freestyle enables us to access a greater share of shopping occasions and has opened up new marketing channels for Stitch Fix to drive user acquisition.

特別是在新客戶增加方面，除了我們的 Fix 產品之外，現在還可以使用飛思卡爾，我們正在學習如何最好地為客戶提供適合他們的體驗。我們一直在測試客戶入職流程，無論客戶是直接訪問我們的主站點，還是通過付費搜索或其他付費渠道登陸產品詳細信息頁面。我們看到了巨大的新客戶潛力，因為 Freestyle 使我們能夠獲得更大份額的購物場合，並為 Stitch Fix 開闢了新的營銷渠道以推動用戶獲取。

That said, and as I noted at the beginning of the call, our sequential net client additions were low for the quarter. We are at the early stages of this learning journey, and as a result of our testing in Q1, we experienced lower fixed conversion rates than we expected. We will continue to test and iterate the optimal client experience and conversion path for new clients. During this learning stage, we will efficiently deploy our marketing dollars for learning and we will scale them when the time is right.

也就是說，正如我在電話會議開始時指出的那樣，我們本季度的連續淨客戶增加量很低。我們正處於這一學習之旅的早期階段，由於我們在第一季度的測試，我們的固定轉化率低於我們的預期。我們將繼續測試和迭代新客戶的最佳客戶體驗和轉化路徑。在這個學習階段，我們將有效地部署用於學習的營銷資金，並在適當的時候擴大規模。

Now on to our second topic, our differentiation. We are at the very beginning of this next chapter for Stitch Fix to transform and evolve from our unique Fix model for styling clients into the global destination for personalized shopping, styling and inspiration. The last 10 years of our Stitch Fix journey sets the stage for this future with our highly differentiated approach to marrying data science and creative human judgment.

現在進入我們的第二個主題，我們的差異化。我們正處於 Stitch Fix 下一個篇章的開端，它將從我們為造型客戶提供獨特的 Fix 模型轉變和發展為個性化購物、造型和靈感的全球目的地。我們過去 10 年的 Stitch Fix 之旅為這個未來奠定了基礎，我們採用高度差異化的方法將數據科學與創造性的人類判斷相結合。

Central to our model, our rich data feedback loop that harness our millions of clients and their proactive relationships in sharing both preferences and many points of feedback on nearly every item we ship. For example, over 50% of Fixes include client notes with our stylists that inform emerging trends. Clients provide 5 points of feedback on over 80% of items shipped. And now clients are providing a growing foundation of engagement data in our Freestyle experience.

我們模型的核心是我們豐富的數據反饋循環，它利用我們數百萬客戶及其積極的關係來分享我們運送的幾乎每件商品的偏好和許多反饋點。例如，超過 50% 的 Fixes 包括我們的造型師為新興趨勢提供信息的客戶說明。客戶對超過 80% 的已發貨物品提供 5 分反饋。現在，客戶在我們的 Freestyle 體驗中提供了越來越多的參與數據基礎。

Similarly, Style Shuffle, our gamified rating experience in our app that 1 million clients play monthly, informs which items in our catalog will succeed with different clients. For example, within 48 hours of a new item being adjusted into our product catalog, we have tested and understood the likely success rate of that item, informing which Fixes as well as which Freestyle shopping feeds are most likely to benefit from that item.

同樣，Style Shuffle 是我們應用程序中的遊戲化評級體驗，每月有 100 萬客戶玩，它會告知我們目錄中的哪些項目將在不同的客戶中取得成功。例如，在將新商品調整到我們的產品目錄後的 48 小時內，我們已經測試並了解該商品的可能成功率，告知哪些 Fixes 以及哪些 Freestyle 購物提要最有可能從該商品中受益。

These unique feedback loops enable a deep understanding of the drivers of customer preference and fit applicable in styling services and shopping. These loops are responsible for our strength in Fix keep rates over time as well as contribute to the success of our exclusive brands. They also enable our Freestyle return rates to be materially better than other apparel e-commerce. To our knowledge, no other retailer is generating insights at this scale to inform a personalized shopping experience.

這些獨特的反饋循環能夠深入了解客戶偏好的驅動因素，並適用於造型服務和購物。隨著時間的推移，這些循環是我們在 Fix keep rates 方面的實力的原因，並有助於我們獨家品牌的成功。它們還使我們的 Freestyle 退貨率明顯優於其他服裝電子商務。據我們所知，沒有其他零售商能夠產生如此規模的洞察力來提供個性化的購物體驗。

Now our final topic, where we are in our journey with Freestyle and Fixes and the areas of focus for the coming year and beyond. Over the course of Q1, we fully opened Freestyle to new consumers and began to market the offering. We enhanced the home feed experience to create many different entry points into shopping to help address the purchase intent of each client from a growing number of branded curated shops unique to each client; to carousels on trending outputs for the client; to launches of new product lines, including our Elevate Black-owned brand grantees and the launch of Mohnton Made, our new sustainable and U.S.-built basics line. We also began testing influencer-curated picks as well as enable clients to see more richness in our product detail pages with a growing foundation of on-mall imagery.

現在是我們的最後一個主題，即我們在 Freestyle 和 Fixes 的旅程中所處的位置，以及來年及以後的重點領域。在第一季度，我們向新消費者全面開放了 Freestyle，並開始推銷該產品。我們增強了主頁體驗，創建了許多不同的購物切入點，以幫助解決每個客戶從越來越多的品牌策劃商店中購買的意圖；為客戶提供趨勢輸出輪播；推出新產品線，包括我們的 Elevate Black 旗下品牌受贈人和 Mohnton Made 的推出，這是我們新的可持續發展和美國製造的基礎產品線。我們還開始測試有影響力的精選商品，並讓客戶在我們的產品詳細信息頁面中看到越來越豐富的商場圖像基礎。

Going forward, we have 3 areas of priority for our continued build-out of Freestyle. First, we are strengthening the customer experience through product feature enhancements and expanded inventory selection. One key area of investment is reducing friction for new clients to access Freestyle through testing new onboarding approaches that balance personalization with speed of access into the experience. We expect this to be highly impactful work wherein only a fraction of our new traffic fully completes the style profile.

展望未來，我們有 3 個優先領域來繼續構建 Freestyle。首先，我們通過增強產品功能和擴大庫存選擇來增強客戶體驗。投資的一個關鍵領域是通過測試新的入職方法來減少新客戶訪問 Freestyle 的摩擦，這些方法可以平衡個性化與訪問體驗的速度。我們希望這是一項極具影響力的工作，其中只有一小部分新流量可以完全完成樣式配置文件。

Inside Freestyle, our secret sauce is dialing on demand. Everything we show each client is unique to them and reflects what will best fit their body represents as well as pushes the boundaries of each client's personal style and provides value-added features such as algorithmically generated outfit.

在 Freestyle 內部，我們的秘密武器是按需撥號。我們向每位客戶展示的一切對他們來說都是獨一無二的，反映了最適合他們身體的東西代表並突破了每位客戶個人風格的界限，並提供了增值功能，例如算法生成的服裝。

We have begun to make discovery easier for customers to find items they love. For example, we recently added a fresh science category which clusters thematic items based on feature attributes tagged by our merchants and stylists, such as fall hues, straight-line jeans and all that glitter. We will also continue to invest in a brand and category expansion of our assortment. For example, in Q1, we added over 20 new women's and men's brands. Over the course of FY '22, we anticipate adding over 50 brands and continuing to test which are traffic-driving products as well as which are more likely basket pillars.

我們已經開始讓客戶更容易找到他們喜歡的物品。例如，我們最近添加了一個新的科學類別，該類別根據我們的商家和造型師標記的特徵屬性對主題項目進行聚類，例如秋天的色調、直筒牛仔褲和所有閃閃發光的東西。我們還將繼續投資於我們品種的品牌和類別擴展。例如，在第一季度，我們新增了 20 多個男女品牌。在 22 財年期間，我們預計將增加 50 多個品牌，並繼續測試哪些是流量驅動產品，哪些更可能是籃子支柱。

Over the course of Q1, national brand Freestyle revenue contribution grew to 19% in October versus 12% in September as we enhance our assortment as well as points of access. While we see the importance in ensuring we have the right national brand to attract and delight clients, we are also intending to begin to build greater external brand equity with our strongest performing exclusive brands. For example, 01.Algo represents roughly 10% of men's Q1 revenue and Market & Spruce represented roughly 13% of women's Q1 revenue, both of which enjoy success rates higher than our best national brand.

在第一季度，隨著我們增加產品種類和接入點，民族品牌 Freestyle 的收入貢獻從 9 月份的 12% 增長到 10 月份的 19%。雖然我們看到確保我們擁有合適的民族品牌來吸引和取悅客戶的重要性，但我們也打算開始通過我們表現最強勁的獨家品牌建立更大的外部品牌資產。例如，01.Algo 約佔男性第一季度收入的 10%，Market & Spruce 約佔女性第一季度收入的 13%，這兩個品牌的成功率都高於我們最好的民族品牌。

Second, we are preparing our technology foundation for scalability. There are various elements of our technology that need to evolve to support the next chapter of Stitch Fix. We realize that it will be important to evolve our overall tech platform to help us achieve our goals. This multiyear investment will include a move to a shared services architecture relative to our current separate stacks for each line of business, expanding the real-time availability of our personalization data and implementing the next generation of our vendor interaction API.

其次，我們正在為可擴展性準備我們的技術基礎。我們的技術有多種元素需要發展以支持 Stitch Fix 的下一章。我們意識到，發展我們的整體技術平台以幫助我們實現目標非常重要。這項多年期投資將包括相對於我們當前每條業務線的獨立堆棧轉向共享服務架構，擴展我們個性化數據的實時可用性，並實施我們的下一代供應商交互 API。

Specifically on the personalization topic, we are now shifting our algorithms to combine detailed client-based feedback on our products and personal style preferences with real-time user behavior in our Freestyle usage. All of these technological investment areas are critically important to where we are headed. It will take time to have them all in place, but it is an investment that we believe will pay off in a big way over the long term. We will keep you up-to-date on the progress.

特別是在個性化主題上，我們現在正在改變我們的算法，以將基於客戶的詳細反饋對我們的產品和個人風格偏好與我們的 Freestyle 使用中的實時用戶行為結合起來。所有這些技術投資領域對我們的發展方向都至關重要。將它們全部準備就緒需要時間，但我們相信，從長遠來看，這是一項會帶來巨大回報的投資。我們將讓您了解最新進展。

And lastly, we are building new marketing activation channels for new consumer growth. Historically, we had access to a subset of client acquisition channels as a result of our business model. These include word-of-mouth, performance-based channels such as Facebook and Instagram as well as incentive-based referrals. With the launch of Freestyle and the ability to share our product catalog as a vehicle for consumer engagement, we are now entering into a number of new marketing channels, including Google product listing ads, influencer marketing, and we will eventually participate in SEO.

最後，我們正在為新的消費者增長建立新的營銷激活渠道。從歷史上看，由於我們的商業模式，我們可以訪問一部分客戶獲取渠道。這些包括口耳相傳、基於績效的渠道（例如 Facebook 和 Instagram）以及基於激勵的推薦。隨著 Freestyle 的推出以及共享我們的產品目錄作為消費者參與工具的能力，我們現在正在進入許多新的營銷渠道，包括谷歌產品列表廣告、影響者營銷，我們最終將參與 SEO。

With that, I will hand it over to Dan to discuss our financial results and provide our updated view on FY '22.

有了這個，我將把它交給丹來討論我們的財務業績，並提供我們對 22 財年的最新看法。

Thanks, Elizabeth, and hello to everyone joining us on today's call.

謝謝，伊麗莎白，向參加今天電話會議的所有人問好。

In Q1, we generated net revenue of $581 million, representing 19% year-over-year growth. We saw continued momentum in women's as well as in kids and in the U.K., where we nearly doubled revenue when compared to the first quarter of last year. Additionally, Freestyle has grown 40% year-over-year as we ramp the offering.

第一季度，我們實現了 5.81 億美元的淨收入，同比增長 19%。我們看到女性、兒童和英國的持續增長勢頭，與去年第一季度相比，我們的收入幾乎翻了一番。此外，隨著我們推出產品，Freestyle 同比增長了 40%。

We grew active clients to nearly 4.2 million, an increase of 417,000 clients or 11% year-over-year. However, sequential net client additions of 15,000 were below our expectations. As Elizabeth mentioned briefly, since the full rollout of Freestyle, we have been iterating on new client acquisition and onboarding methods, and that has had an impact on fixed conversion.

我們的活躍客戶增加到近 420 萬，同比增加 417,000 或 11%。然而，連續淨增加 15,000 個客戶低於我們的預期。正如 Elizabeth 簡要提到的，自從全面推出 Freestyle 以來，我們一直在迭代新客戶獲取和入職方法，這對固定轉化產生了影響。

Also, in the first half of fiscal 2021, we launched a high dollar value referral program for new customers, which ultimately brought in clients who did not remain active as long as we had hoped. We have since ended the program. However, our net client adds were impacted by this in the first quarter, and we expect to continue to see the effects of this into the second quarter.

此外，在 2021 財年上半年，我們為新客戶推出了一項高美元價值的推薦計劃，最終帶來了一些沒有像我們希望的那樣保持活躍的客戶。我們已經結束了這個項目。然而，我們的淨客戶增加在第一季度受此影響，我們預計這種影響將持續到第二季度。

And finally, we continue to face IDFA challenges in both historical and new channels as we evolve our marketing strategy. We expect a sequential decline in actives in Q2 and anticipate actives returning to growth in Q3. We continue to test, learn and involve our onboarding process and our marketing channels with the focus on adding new clients that engage with us over the long term. As a result, we're seeing healthy retention and engagement rates for new and recently acquired clients, which is driving the highest RPAC we have ever experienced.

最後，隨著我們發展營銷策略，我們將繼續在舊渠道和新渠道中面臨 IDFA 挑戰。我們預計第二季度活性物質將連續下降，並預計第三季度活性物質將恢復增長。我們繼續測試、學習和參與我們的入職流程和營銷渠道，重點是增加與我們長期互動的新客戶。因此，我們看到新客戶和最近收購的客戶保持健康的保留率和參與率，這推動了我們經歷過的最高 RPAC。

Q1 gross margin was a record 47%, representing a 220 basis point increase from the same quarter last year, largely driven by improved product margins as well as shipping cost optimizations. Advertising was 8.7% of net revenue in Q1 compared to 10.5% in Q1 of 2021.

第一季度的毛利率達到創紀錄的 47%，比去年同期增長 220 個基點，這主要是由於產品利潤率的提高以及運輸成本的優化。廣告佔第一季度淨收入的 8.7%，而 2021 年第一季度為 10.5%。

We continue to test new marketing channels, including SEM, brand and influencer marketing. As we ramp these channels throughout the quarter, we opted to not overspend in marketing while we refine our onboarding experience. As we continue to improve onboarding, we'll also continue to ramp our marketing as appropriate to optimize for long-term free cash flow.

我們繼續測試新的營銷渠道，包括 SEM、品牌和影響力營銷。當我們在整個季度增加這些渠道時，我們選擇在改進入職體驗的同時不在營銷方面超支。隨著我們繼續改進入職培訓，我們還將繼續適當增加營銷力度，以優化長期自由現金流。

Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $38 million, reflecting sustained revenue growth, strong gross margins and lower marketing spend. Net inventory ended the quarter at $184 million, down 13% quarter-over-quarter. While we continue to add selection throughout the quarter, we did experience delays in receipts primarily due to shipping delays in the global supply chain. We are currently experiencing delays from 1 to 4 weeks, and we expect these delays to continue in Q2 and beyond.

第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 3800 萬美元，反映了持續的收入增長、強勁的毛利率和較低的營銷支出。本季度末淨庫存為 1.84 億美元，環比下降 13%。雖然我們在整個季度繼續增加選擇，但我們確實遇到了收貨延遲，這主要是由於全球供應鏈中的運輸延遲。我們目前正在經歷 1 到 4 週的延遲，我們預計這些延遲將在第二季度及以後繼續。

We delivered $125 million in free cash flow and ended the quarter with no debt and $401 million in cash, cash equivalents and highly rated securities. Given our strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to make the necessary investments to become the global destination for personalized shopping while maintaining an unwavering focus on managing costs by operating efficiently.

我們交付了 1.25 億美元的自由現金流，並在本季度結束時沒有債務和 4.01 億美元的現金、現金等價物和高評級證券。鑑於我們強大的資產負債表，我們有能力進行必要的投資，成為全球個性化購物目的地，同時通過高效運營，堅定不移地專注於管理成本。

As we've shared today, we are in a moment of transformation, which will be a multiyear endeavor. The investments we are making now will allow us to unlock the long-term opportunity that Freestyle presents. As Elizabeth mentioned, we are very early in our journey, especially with Freestyle. In parallel, the apparel industry continued to be impacted by the macro supply chain challenges related to port congestion and logistics constraints. These unknowns have been factored into our outlook.

正如我們今天分享的那樣，我們正處於轉型的時刻，這將是一項多年的努力。我們現在進行的投資將使我們能夠釋放 Freestyle 帶來的長期機會。正如 Elizabeth 提到的，我們的旅程還很早，尤其是 Freestyle。與此同時，服裝行業繼續受到與港口擁堵和物流限制相關的宏觀供應鏈挑戰的影響。這些未知數已被納入我們的展望。

Looking forward, for Q2, we expect net revenue in the range of $505 million to $520 million representing growth of 0% to 3% year-over-year. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of negative $5 million to $5 million or negative 1% to 1% of net revenue. For the full year, we now expect revenue to be in the high single digits year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA margins to be between 1% and 2%.

展望未來，我們預計第二季度的淨收入將在 5.05 億美元至 5.2 億美元之間，同比增長 0% 至 3%。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在負 500 萬至 500 萬美元或淨收入的負 1% 至 1% 之間。對於全年，我們現在預計收入將同比保持高個位數，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 1% 至 2% 之間。

This guidance reflects our expectation of lower net adds in clients discussed previously as we continue to optimize the client experience and onboarding in advance of accelerating further spend in marketing. It also reflects the ongoing macro impact of global supply chain challenges in the industry.

該指南反映了我們對先前討論的客戶淨增加量降低的預期，因為我們將繼續優化客戶體驗並提前入職，以加速進一步的營銷支出。它還反映了全球供應鏈挑戰對行業的持續宏觀影響。

As we've discussed today, we are in the first inning of a long game and will likely take several quarters to start seeing the impact we expect from our efforts. As we continue to learn, we are confident we are pivoting quickly to respond to any challenges we encounter. We remain excited for the journey we have embarked upon and confident that we are positioned well to become the global destination for personalized shopping.

正如我們今天所討論的那樣，我們正處於一場漫長比賽的第一局，可能需要幾個季度才能開始看到我們預期的努力所產生的影響。在我們不斷學習的過程中，我們相信我們正在迅速調整以應對我們遇到的任何挑戰。我們對已經開始的旅程感到興奮，並相信我們有能力成為全球個性化購物目的地。

With that, we're now ready for your questions. Operator, I'll turn it over to you.

這樣，我們現在就可以回答您的問題了。接線員，我把它交給你。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Two questions, please. Could you talk about the impact from Fix Preview, what impact that's had in terms of spend per customer -- the number of items, Fixes -- the number of items per Fix that people are keeping. And then secondly, could you go through again the net add shortfall in the quarter? I get the IDFA part. But with the other factor that dragged down in the first quarter and it's likely to continue in the second quarter, could you double-click on that, please?

請教兩個問題。你能談談 Fix Preview 的影響嗎？這對每個客戶的支出有什麼影響 - 項目數量，Fixes - 人們保留的每個 Fix 的項目數量。其次，您能否再次解決本季度的淨增缺口？我得到了 IDFA 部分。但是，還有另一個因素拖累了第一季度，並且很可能會在第二季度繼續下去，請你雙擊它好嗎？

Mark, thank you for the questions. Yes, I will answer those, and Dan, feel free to add on. So on Fix Preview, we really like what we have seen with that experience, and it's continued as we further the rollout. So overall, we've seen increased average order values largely as a result of higher keep rates. Clients have an opportunity to see ahead, select a few things and then the stylist finishes the fix, and that's had a positive impact on average spend.

馬克，謝謝你的提問。是的，我會回答這些問題，Dan，請隨時補充。因此，在 Fix Preview 上，我們非常喜歡我們所看到的體驗，並且隨著我們進一步推出，它會繼續下去。所以總的來說，我們看到平均訂單價值的增加主要是由於更高的保留率。客戶有機會預見未來，選擇一些東西，然後造型師完成修復，這對平均支出產生了積極影響。

We also have seen improvements year-on-year on client retention, which we also think can be attributed to the positive experience of Fix Preview coupled with Freestyle. And then on the net adds, we pointed to really 3 different drivers, which we are focused on. So the first is, as both Dan and I mentioned, we're incredibly focused on evolving the onboarding process to Stitch Fix, both for clients that are experiencing and wanting to get into Fixes as well as Freestyle. And so we see opportunity we've already made some adjustments as we've entered into Q2 and just more learning to just make it, frankly, a lot easier for new clients that want to get shopping right away to get into that experience as quickly as possible.

我們還看到客戶保留率逐年提高，我們認為這也可以歸因於 Fix Preview 和 Freestyle 的積極體驗。然後在網上添加，我們指出了我們真正關注的 3 個不同的驅動程序。因此，首先是，正如 Dan 和我所提到的，我們非常專注於將入職流程發展為 Stitch Fix，這既適用於正在體驗並希望進入 Fixes 以及 Freestyle 的客戶。因此，我們看到了機會，我們已經在進入第二季度時進行了一些調整，並且只是更多地學習，坦率地說，對於希望立即購物以盡快獲得這種體驗的新客戶來說，這要容易得多盡可能。

The second that we pointed to that I think you were alluding to, Mark, is we had a -- we've always really had a good client growth from referrals and incentive-based referrals. We tested a program last Q1 and into Q2 of last year that was offering a higher referral fee and that was something upon analysis we realized was not generating the kind of clients that we want in our ecosystem. And so we've ended that program, but that is having an impact not on the gross adds, but net adds as a result of delinquency. And then the third is kind of the impact of IDFA and the iOS privacy changes, which we're continuing to learn and improve our performance within marketing, just given those changes similar to many other companies in that market.

我們指出的第二點，我想你是在暗示，馬克，我們有一個 - 我們一直真的從推薦和基於激勵的推薦中獲得了良好的客戶增長。我們在去年第一季度和去年第二季度測試了一個項目，該項目提供更高的推薦費，經過分析我們意識到這並沒有在我們的生態系統中產生我們想要的那種客戶。因此，我們已經結束了該計劃，但這不會對總增加產生影響，但會因拖欠而影響淨增加。然後第三個是 IDFA 和 iOS 隱私變化的影響，我們正在繼續學習並改進我們在營銷方面的表現，只是考慮到這些變化與該市場中的許多其他公司相似。

Next, we go to the line of Ross Sandler with Barclays.

接下來，我們去巴克萊銀行的羅斯桑德勒線。

I guess I'll ask about the revenue guide. So you've mentioned that you're having all these supply chain delays in getting product. And I know that inventory levels kind of dictate how many Fixes and how much Freestyle you can send out in any given day, week, month, quarter. So how much of the decel is related to the client net adds that you just talked about versus not having enough inventory to then fulfill the demand that might be out there? And I guess just stepping back from these issues, how much of this do you think is kind of temporary versus pretty easily salvageable? Like could we get the growth rates back up in a matter of a couple of quarters? What's your view on that?

我想我會詢問收入指南。所以你已經提到你在獲得產品時遇到了所有這些供應鏈延遲。而且我知道庫存水平在某種程度上決定了在任何給定的一天、一周、一個月、一個季度您可以發送多少 Fixes 和多少 Freestyle。那麼，有多少減速與您剛才談到的客戶淨增加相關，而不是沒有足夠的庫存來滿足可能存在的需求？而且我想只是從這些問題中退一步，你認為其中有多少是暫時的而不是很容易挽救的？比如我們能否在幾個季度內恢復增長率？你對此有何看法？

Yes. Thanks, Ross. Maybe I'll start at a very high level, and then I'll hand it over to Dan. I mean, I definitely think we think both of these are temporary, just the supply chain issues we would expect to subside over the coming year plus. And then onboarding, we're learning a lot right now, and we're confident we're going to improve over the coming quarters. But with that, let me hand it to Dan to give more detail.

是的。謝謝，羅斯。也許我會從一個非常高的水平開始，然後我會把它交給 Dan。我的意思是，我絕對認為我們認為這兩者都是暫時的，只是我們預計在未來一年內會消退的供應鏈問題。然後入職，我們現在學到了很多東西，我們相信我們會在未來幾個季度有所改進。但是，讓我把它交給 Dan 來提供更多細節。

Yes. I'll just add that with respect to the client actives and the impact that has, obviously, the client actives in Q1 and as we mentioned into Q2, we'll have some downstream impact, although we do expect to return to growth in Q3 as we enter the spring season for client adds. So we do view that as temporary, although it does have a quarter-on-quarter effect.

是的。我只想補充一點，關於客戶活躍度和影響，顯然，客戶活躍度在第一季度，正如我們在第二季度提到的那樣，我們將產生一些下游影響，儘管我們確實希望在第三季度恢復增長當我們進入客戶補充的春季時。因此，我們確實認為這是暫時的，儘管它確實具有季度環比效應。

In relation to inventory, we do have certain categories that we would like to have more inventory in, not all categories, and that does have an impact. Going into the back half of the year, we're managing that as tightly as we can by looking at placing orders early and tracking through all the logistics. We'll have to wait and see how that impacts our Q3 and Q4. So back -- just to round this out, back to Elizabeth's point, it's really both, and we do view them both as temporary.

關於庫存，我們確實有某些類別我們希望有更多庫存，而不是所有類別，這確實會產生影響。進入今年下半年，我們通過儘早下訂單並跟踪所有物流來盡可能嚴格地管理它。我們將不得不拭目以待，看看這將如何影響我們的第三季度和第四季度。回過頭來看，回到伊麗莎白的觀點，實際上兩者都是，我們確實認為它們都是暫時的。

Next, we go to the line of Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們去看看 Cory Carpenter 與 JPMorgan 的關係。

I had 2. Maybe first, I think, Elizabeth, you mentioned in the prepared remarks, dealing with short-term impacts of cannibalization. Could you just expand on that comment a bit and maybe what you're seeing on the cannibalization side? And then just in terms of COVID, how sensitive is the business or consumer demand to COVID headlines? Are you seeing much impact at all when cases flare up? Or do you feel like we're kind of past that at this point?

我有 2 個。也許首先，我想，伊麗莎白，你在準備好的發言中提到，處理蠶食的短期影響。您能否稍微擴展一下該評論，也許您在蠶食方面看到了什麼？然後就 COVID 而言，企業或消費者需求對 COVID 頭條新聞有多敏感？當案件爆發時，您是否看到了很大的影響？或者你覺得我們在這一點上已經過去了嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Cory. So on the cannibalization point, I mean, I guess, I would think about that a couple of different ways. First is we feel really good about the additive nature of Fixes together with Freestyle for clients in our ecosystem. I think the record high of $524 on our RPAC is a really strong signal of the benefit of having both Freestyle and Fixes as well as the evidence of category growth rates in categories that have typically been underrepresented by Fixes like footwear.

是的。謝謝你的問題，科里。所以在蠶食點上，我的意思是，我想，我會考慮幾種不同的方式。首先，對於我們生態系統中的客戶，我們對 Fixes 和 Freestyle 的附加性質感到非常滿意。我認為我們的 RPAC 創下 524 美元的歷史新高，這是一個非常強烈的信號，表明同時擁有 Freestyle 和 Fixes 的好處，以及鞋類等通常由 Fixes 代表不足的類別的類別增長率的證據。

So that, we feel really good that on a long-term basis, we're generating -- over time, we'll be generating higher LTVs with our clients. The short-term cannibalization that I was referring to is more as we think about onboarding new customers to our experience. Over time, we anticipate generating more traffic to site through both stitchfix.com, through product detail pages and new channels. But in the short term, people are making a trade-off between, do I want to try Fix? Do I want to try Freestyle? And so that's the learning phase we're in right now, that we see opportunity to get better and better at and really grow the overall net adds with our clients. But I think in the short term, we anticipate some learnings over the coming quarters to really get that right.

因此，我們感覺非常好，從長遠來看，我們正在產生 - 隨著時間的推移，我們將與客戶產生更高的 LTV。我所指的短期蠶食更多是因為我們考慮讓新客戶加入我們的體驗。隨著時間的推移，我們預計會通過 stitchfix.com、產品詳細信息頁面和新渠道為網站帶來更多流量。但在短期內，人們正在權衡取捨，我是否想嘗試 Fix？我想嘗試自由泳嗎？因此，這就是我們現在所處的學習階段，我們看到了越來越好的機會，並真正增加了與客戶的整體淨增加。但我認為在短期內，我們預計在未來幾個季度會學到一些東西，才能真正做到這一點。

And one of the short-term adjustments we've already made there is we know really high-intent clients, such as want to be styled, want to get a fix, making sure we get that signal and take them directly into that experience. But those are some of the learnings that we've had in the quarter plus that we've since opened Freestyle.

我們已經在那裡做出的短期調整之一是，我們知道真正有高意願的客戶，例如想要設計風格，想要修復，確保我們得到信號並將他們直接帶入那種體驗。但這些是我們在本季度以及我們開設 Freestyle 後獲得的一些經驗教訓。

Next, we go to the line of Edward Yruma with KeyBanc Capital.

接下來，我們與 KeyBanc Capital 一起去看看愛德華·尤魯瑪 (Edward Yruma) 的路線。

I guess first, back this net new customer number. How much of it is driven kind of both with the gross numbers being softer versus higher churn of the existing customer base? And I guess just stepping back, I know you identified the onboarding processes as a particular sticking point. But it's been kind of the same process for an extended period of time. So I guess why is it that you think you're starting to encounter some of these newer problems today? Is it that maybe you're starting to exhaust the people that would be open to this type of product? Do you need to kind of reintroduce it to them? Or kind of help us understand why it's an issue today versus maybe 6, 12 months ago.

我想首先，支持這個淨新客戶數。其中有多少是由於現有客戶群的總數量較軟和較高的流失率而驅動的？我想退一步說，我知道您將入職流程確定為一個特定的癥結所在。但在很長一段時間內，它都是相同的過程。所以我想為什麼您認為您今天開始遇到這些新問題？是不是您開始讓對此類產品持開放態度的人們筋疲力盡？你需要重新介紹給他們嗎？或者幫助我們理解為什麼它在今天成為一個問題，而在 6 個月、12 個月前。

Yes. Thanks, Ed. So on the net adds front, it was really a combination of those 2 things. So both acquiring fewer clients, we opted to spend less on marketing and then also the headwind of just the temporary effect of a higher dormancy rate. On the onboarding, we really had never onboarded clients directly into Freestyle. The plurality of our clients even today still using Freestyle are Fix customers that we've introduced to Freestyle. We have started to add a lot of new clients, and we'll be adding more as we improve our onboarding experience to Freestyle. But I think what we're learning is how do we make it as simple as possible for people to start to explore.

是的。謝謝，埃德。所以在網上添加前面，它實際上是這兩件事的結合。因此，既獲得了更少的客戶，我們也選擇了減少營銷支出，同時也抵禦了更高休眠率的暫時影響。在入職時，我們真的從來沒有直接讓客戶入職 Freestyle。直到今天，我們的眾多客戶仍在使用 Freestyle，他們是我們引入 Freestyle 的 Fix 客戶。我們已經開始增加很多新客戶，並且隨著我們改善 Freestyle 的入職體驗，我們還會增加更多。但我認為我們正在學習的是我們如何讓人們開始探索盡可能簡單。

There isn't a logged-out exploration experience yet with Stitch Fix. And so you can land on a product detail page through Google Product Listing ad or a Facebook ad on a particular item or you can come to stitchfix.com. We did make a number of improvements before launching Freestyle where our signal capability on fashion and style preference, I would say, has improved quite a bit over the last several months. But just this idea of how do we make it actually even easier to just get shopping right away. And I think now that it's open, we're seeing places and opportunities to continue to test and expand that.

Stitch Fix 還沒有登出探索體驗。因此，您可以通過 Google 產品列表廣告或特定項目的 Facebook 廣告登陸產品詳細信息頁面，或者您可以訪問 stitchfix.com。在推出 Freestyle 之前，我們確實做了一些改進，我想說，在過去幾個月裡，我們在時尚和風格偏好方面的信號能力有了很大的提高。但正是關於我們如何讓立即購物變得更容易的想法。而且我認為現在它已經開放，我們看到了繼續測試和擴展它的地方和機會。

And I did want to go back. I apologize, Cory, I missed the second part of your question on COVID. So in addition to those questions from Ed, with COVID headlines, what impact do we see. I mean I think maybe there's 2 things that we have seen with that historically and all the chapters of COVID over the last 1.5 years. First is we tend to see new signals of what consumer product category preferences are. Typically, when we go into a shelter-in-place mode, there's been more nesting, more comfortable close versus when we see a reopening. Like, for example, in Q1 of this year, we saw a 100% increase quarter-on-quarter on people looking for commuting-based close, so kind of going back in the office. So what we typically see is just changes in category preferences.

我確實想回去。抱歉，科里，我錯過了你關於 COVID 的問題的第二部分。因此，除了 Ed 提出的那些問題之外，還有 COVID 的頭條新聞，我們看到了什麼影響。我的意思是，我認為在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們可能在歷史上和 COVID 的所有章節中看到了兩件事。首先是我們傾向於看到關於消費者產品類別偏好的新信號。通常，當我們進入就地避難模式時，與重新開放時相比，會有更多的嵌套、更舒適的關閉。例如，在今年第一季度，我們看到尋求基於通勤的親密關係的人環比增長了 100%，所以有點回到辦公室。所以我們通常看到的只是類別偏好的變化。

And then I think, in general, there has been just the trend to online accelerates during these time periods of higher rates of COVID. But on the flip side, as a general category, we know that apparel, some of that shopping does go down. So net-net, it's been a positive for us. But really, the trend spotting is now what we look for as we go through chapters of COVID.

然後我認為，總的來說，在 COVID 發病率較高的這段時間裡，只有在線加速的趨勢。但另一方面，作為一般類別，我們知道服裝，其中一些購物確實下降了。所以淨淨，這對我們來說是積極的。但實際上，趨勢發現現在是我們在閱讀 COVID 章節時所尋找的。

We go next to the line of Erinn Murphy with Piper Sandler.

我們和派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 一起走到艾琳·墨菲 (Erinn Murphy) 的旁邊。

Two questions for me as well. First, on the men's business, that has been weak for a couple of quarters now. Can you just talk about what you attribute that to? And then secondly, what's the right way to think about marketing spend here in the second quarter and then as you move back into the second half of the year?

我也有兩個問題。首先，在男性業務方面，已經有幾個季度表現不佳了。你能談談你將其歸因於什麼嗎？其次，在第二季度和下半年考慮營銷支出的正確方法是什麼？

Thanks, Erinn. I can start with the men's question, and I'll hand it to Dan on the marketing question. Yes, I mean, overall, the U.K. business doubled in the quarter. Women's and kids are both very strong. I would say men's has been slower to reaccelerate in this COVID time period. We're testing a lot of new things. We've added actually a lot of new brands. We are starting to acquire customers through that product detail page experience, a few highlights we're excited about is we've seen footwear and denim is a great starting point for those clients. So we're learning what they're looking for in this time period.

謝謝，艾琳。我可以從男人的問題開始，然後我會把它交給 Dan 來解決營銷問題。是的，我的意思是，總體而言，本季度英國業務翻了一番。女人和孩子都很強壯。我想說的是，在這個 COVID 時期，男性重新加速的速度較慢。我們正在測試很多新東西。我們實際上增加了很多新品牌。我們開始通過產品詳細信息頁面體驗獲得客戶，我們感到興奮的一些亮點是我們已經看到鞋類和牛仔布是這些客戶的一個很好的起點。所以我們正在了解他們在這個時間段內正在尋找什麼。

But I think what we've realized is some of our messaging on Fixes and that approach was just less resonant during the COVID time period. I think we're pretty excited about what Freestyle represents, and we're in really test-and-learn mode to get that business accelerating once again. On the marketing side, let me hand it to Dan.

但我認為我們已經意識到的是我們在 Fixes 上的一些消息，而這種方法在 COVID 期間不太引起共鳴。我認為我們對 Freestyle 所代表的東西感到非常興奮，我們正處於真正的測試和學習模式中，以再次加速該業務。在營銷方面，讓我交給 Dan。

Yes, Erinn, on marketing going into Q2, which can be a weaker quarter for us, at least in the November, December time period to the holiday. We're looking at slightly lower marketing spend probably from Q1. But for the full year, we are likely going to spend close to what we spent last year. So think of that as 9% to 11% of revenue as we ramp up into spring, as we improve our onboarding experience and as we continue to branch out in new channels. We're going to test, iterate and learn and scale what's working well for us from a traffic and conversion standpoint as well as the new channels that Elizabeth alluded to, such as the SEM channels and the influencer and brand-based channels, all of which were ramping. So in total, it's -- we're really looking at back to that 9% to 11% of marketing spend.

是的，Erinn，關於第二季度的營銷，這對我們來說可能是一個較弱的季度，至少在 11 月、12 月到假期期間是這樣。我們預計第一季度的營銷支出可能會略有下降。但就全年而言，我們的支出可能會接近去年的水平。因此，隨著我們進入春季、改善入職體驗並繼續開拓新渠道，將其視為收入的 9% 至 11%。我們將從流量和轉換的角度以及伊麗莎白提到的新渠道（例如 SEM 渠道、影響者和基於品牌的渠道）來測試、迭代、學習和擴展對我們有效的方法，所有這些這是斜坡。所以總的來說，我們真的在回顧營銷支出的 9% 到 11%。

Next, we go to the line of Kunal Madhukar with UBS.

接下來，我們與瑞銀一起去 Kunal Madhukar 的線。

A couple, if I could. One, Freestyle revenue increased 40% year-over-year. U.K. revenue has doubled. What does that mean for the core business, U.S. revenue? Did that increase or decline? That is one. And second is, can you talk to the effectiveness of the Algo plus Stylist plus the Preview, when 80% of the Fixes, the first Fixes have at least one accept, which means 20% don't have any accepts and there could be more non-accepts within that 80% kind of vicinity. So how personalized is this? How effective is the Algo, how effective is the Stylist and how effective is the Preview?

一對，如果可以的話。第一，Freestyle 收入同比增長 40%。英國的收入翻了一番。這對核心業務美國收入意味著什麼？那是增加還是減少了？那是一個。第二個是，你能談談 Algo plus Stylist plus the Preview 的有效性嗎，當 80% 的 Fixes 時，第一個 Fixes 至少有一個接受，這意味著 20% 沒有任何接受，可能會有更多在 80% 的附近範圍內不接受。那麼這有多個性化呢？ Algo 的效果如何，Stylist 的效果如何以及 Preview 的效果如何？

Yes. Thanks, Kunal. I can take that, and Dan, feel free to chime in. Yes, we did mention those growth rates with Freestyle and the U.K. So Freestyle is still a much smaller percentage of our business than Fixes. So the core Fix business is growing. The U.K. is an earlier stage market, and we love what we're seeing there, gives us a lot of confidence of global expansion. And we know, as I mentioned, with Freestyle that as we get more new customers into that experience, which we're very early stage on that growth rate, really represents subsequent purchases by existing Freestyle customers that were already Fix customers. So I think we're very early stage of opening up Freestyle to new customers, and we are still seeing growth in that core Fix business.

是的。謝謝，庫納爾。我可以接受，Dan，請隨意插話。是的，我們確實提到了 Freestyle 和英國的增長率。所以 Freestyle 在我們業務中所佔的比例仍然比 Fixes 小得多。因此，核心 Fix 業務正在增長。英國是一個處於早期階段的市場，我們喜歡在那裡看到的一切，這讓我們對全球擴張充滿信心。正如我所提到的，我們知道，隨著我們讓更多的新客戶體驗到 Freestyle，我們在增長率的早期階段，確實代表了已經是 Fix 客戶的現有 Freestyle 客戶的後續購買。所以我認為我們還處於向新客戶開放 Freestyle 的早期階段，我們仍然看到核心 Fix 業務的增長。

On the effect of Algo plus Stylist plus Preview, we've mentioned the strength, and it was an earlier question on what have we seen with Fix Preview. And we have seen just continued positive increase on keep rate and overall average order value, which really is a sign of a strength of that signal of being able to generate previews for clients and really get the Fix experience right. For clients that don't request specific asks within their Fix, which is about half of our clients, the first step of that preview is actually algorithmically generated and we've done a lot of testing to show the power of that experience.

關於 Algo plus Stylist plus Preview 的效果，我們已經提到了強度，這是我們之前看到的 Fix Preview 的問題。我們已經看到保持率和總體平均訂單價值持續正增長，這確實表明能夠為客戶生成預覽並真正獲得正確的修復體驗的信號強度。對於在他們的 Fix 中不要求特定問題的客戶（大約占我們客戶的一半），該預覽的第一步實際上是通過算法生成的，我們已經進行了大量測試以展示該體驗的強大功能。

And then we know in the second step that our stylists add a lot of value of finishing that fix out. I think you referred to that 80% successful for Fix. And we've seen that to be actually a very strong indicator of the first experience, and it's a pretty high bar we set for ourselves. It both means that the client not just kept something, but they also are positively anticipating their next Fix. And we're constantly working to improve that stat.

然後我們知道在第二步中我們的造型師為完成修復增加了很多價值。我想你提到了 Fix 的 80% 成功率。我們已經看到，這實際上是第一次體驗的一個非常有力的指標，這是我們為自己設定的一個相當高的標準。這都意味著客戶不僅保留了一些東西，而且他們還積極期待他們的下一個修復。我們一直在努力改善該統計數據。

But if you think about it, this is a pretty -- a very different experience than typical shopping and yet to have that high percentage be successful is a really good sign of the power of the combination of our data science together with Stylists.

但如果你仔細想想，這是一種非常漂亮的體驗——與典型的購物體驗截然不同，而且成功率這麼高，這是我們的數據科學與造型師相結合的強大力量的一個很好的標誌。

Next, we go to the line of Youssef Squali with Truist Securities.

接下來，我們去看看 Youssef Squali 與 Truist Securities 的關係。

Two questions for me, please. First, your fiscal year guidance implies, I think, about 10% growth in the second half. Can you maybe just parse out the mix of growth in unit versus price? Is it fair to assume that the bulk of that 10% is still going to come from price rather than unit growth or active clients growth? And then relative to that and maybe stepping back and looking at the bigger picture. If I look at your performance last quarter and then this past quarter -- well, the last 2 quarters, it seems like your LTV to CAC has gone up pretty dramatically. So has your thinking about maybe the growth prospects of the business changed to a certain degree and therefore, you may be putting maybe more emphasis on the economics of the business on a profitability or LTV to CAC standpoint, considering how much better have gotten relative to what you thought maybe a year or 2 ago?

請問我兩個問題。首先，我認為你的財政年度指引意味著下半年增長約 10%。您能否分析出單位增長與價格增長的組合？假設這 10% 中的大部分仍將來自價格而不是單位增長或活躍客戶增長是否公平？然後相對於此，也許退後一步，看看更大的圖景。如果我看看你上個季度和上個季度的表現——好吧，最後兩個季度，你的 LTV 到 CAC 似乎已經大幅上升。因此，您是否考慮過業務的增長前景是否在一定程度上發生了變化，因此，考慮到相對於你一年或兩年前的想法是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Youssef, for the great questions. Let me hand these to Dan.

是的。謝謝你，Youssef，提出了很好的問題。讓我把這些交給丹。

You're right on the back half, it does imply around that 10% growth rate. And it is both unit and rate as well. We -- as I mentioned earlier, we do expect actives to go -- to grow in the back half of the year, especially as we enter into the spring season. We are continuing to see very solid order economics in terms of AOV for both Fix and Freestyle. So it is a combination of both in the back half. It's not a rate only. We do expect units and actives to grow as well.

你在後半部分是對的，這確實意味著大約 10% 的增長率。它既是單位又是比率。我們 - 正如我之前提到的那樣，我們確實希望活動能夠在今年下半年增長，尤其是在我們進入春季時。在 Fix 和 Freestyle 的 AOV 方面，我們繼續看到非常穩固的訂單經濟學。所以它是後半部分兩者的結合。這不僅僅是一個比率。我們確實希望單位和積極分子也會增長。

To your second question on LTV to CAC, I think I'll remind everyone, we've talked briefly in prior calls about the unit economics of both Freestyle and Fix, which are very strong. If you exclude marketing on an overall basis, we're north of 30% in contribution profit. So very strong unit economics, very strong order economics. And we're investing a lot in the product and the tech to continue to grow in scale.

關於你關於 LTV 到 CAC 的第二個問題，我想我會提醒大家，我們在之前的電話會議中簡要討論過 Freestyle 和 Fix 的單位經濟效益，它們非常強大。如果你從整體上排除營銷，我們的貢獻利潤將超過 30%。所以非常強大的單位經濟學，非常強大的訂單經濟學。我們在產品和技術上投入了大量資金，以繼續擴大規模。

And so I would not say that we're optimizing for profitability over growth. What we are optimizing for is an amazing client experience that will ultimately lead to higher growth rates and long-term free cash flow. And the unit economics that we have -- the order economics, the unit economics and the overall contribution profit that we generate allows us to invest heavily in the customer experience, which will accelerate growth on a forward-looking basis.

所以我不會說我們正在優化盈利能力而不是增長。我們正在優化的是令人驚嘆的客戶體驗，最終將帶來更高的增長率和長期的自由現金流。我們擁有的單位經濟——訂單經濟、單位經濟和我們產生的整體貢獻利潤使我們能夠在客戶體驗上投入大量資金，這將在前瞻性的基礎上加速增長。

We go next to Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

我們和摩根士丹利一起去 Lauren Schenk 旁邊。

This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren Schenk. Can you just quantify the impact of supply chain disruptions in 1Q and what you're thinking about that for that -- for the remainder of fiscal '22? And then is that supply chain impact primarily in lower inventory and therefore, revenue that you're able to actually get in those specific categories? Or is there some impact to gross margin as well with higher rates?

這是 Lauren Schenk 的 Nathan Feather。您能否量化第一季度供應鏈中斷的影響，以及您對此的想法——對於 22 財年的剩餘時間？然後，供應鏈的影響主要是降低庫存，從而影響您在這些特定類別中實際獲得的收入嗎？還是較高的利率對毛利率也有一些影響？

Thanks, Nathan. Let me hand both questions to Dan.

謝謝，內森。讓我把這兩個問題都交給丹。

Yes. In Q1, the impacts were muted from supply chain simply because we had ordered in advance of the major delays with our ordering is 6 to 9 months out. That said, we are starting to see the impacts of it coming into Q2. I made the comment on our inventory being down sequentially. We are seeing 1- to 4-week delays in inventory. And so we are seeing certain categories lighter in inventory than we like. Other categories are fully funded. And that does have the impact of Freestyle -- of impacting Freestyle in the back half just because we can't offer the full selection of the catalog in certain categories.

是的。在第一季度，供應鏈的影響減弱了，因為我們提前訂購了 6 到 9 個月的重大延誤。也就是說，我們開始看到它進入第二季度的影響。我對我們的庫存連續下降發表了評論。我們看到庫存延遲 1 到 4 週。因此，我們看到某些類別的庫存比我們希望的要少。其他類別資金充足。這確實對 Freestyle 產生了影響——在後半部分影響 Freestyle 只是因為我們無法在某些類別中提供完整的目錄選擇。

Now we are working to manage and mitigate that to the extent possible by placing orders even earlier than we normally would and ensuring that we're doing everything on our end to alleviate any of the supply chain constraints. But yes, it does have an impact in the back half of the year for us.

現在，我們正在努力通過比平時更早下訂單來盡可能地管理和減輕這種情況，並確保我們盡一切努力減輕供應鏈的任何限制。但是，是的，它確實在下半年對我們產生了影響。

Next up is Mark Altschwager with Baird.

接下來是 Mark Altschwager 和 Baird。

I guess, Elizabeth, first, just to clarify some of your earlier comments on the cannibalization. Are your learnings that more new clients coming to Stitch Fix are opting for Freestyle versus trying their first Fix? Or are you seeing that existing clients are either canceling Fixes or changing the Fix frequency once they're becoming more aware of the Freestyle offering?

我想，伊麗莎白，首先，我想澄清一下你之前對蠶食的一些評論。您是否了解到更多來 Stitch Fix 的新客戶選擇 Freestyle 而不是嘗試他們的第一個 Fix？或者您是否看到現有客戶在越來越了解 Freestyle 產品後取消修復或更改修復頻率？

Yes. Thanks, Mark, for the question. We're seeing really strong metrics on retention of clients with Fixes and in general, the continued health of that business. What I was more referring to is in the onboarding process. We're kind of introducing a little bit of paradox of choice. And for some of our clients, they probably are very high intent that just want a Fix. And I think we acknowledge in the onboarding, we may be distracting some of those clients with shopping in Freestyle when in reality, they just want the support of a stylist. So that's an area of one opportunity and we've already made some adjustments on that.

是的。謝謝，馬克，提出這個問題。我們看到了關於使用 Fixes 保留客戶的非常強大的指標，總的來說，該業務的持續健康。我更多指的是在入職過程中。我們有點引入了選擇的悖論。對於我們的一些客戶，他們可能非常想要修復。而且我認為我們在入職培訓中承認，我們可能會分散一些在 Freestyle 購物的客戶的注意力，而實際上，他們只需要造型師的支持。所以這是一個機會的領域，我們已經對此進行了一些調整。

And then for those that are really interested in just personalized shopping, making sure that they get access and availability to that as quickly as possible. But I think what we found is we expect, over time, those 2 things to be highly additive. But in the short term and part of what we saw in Q1 was that not being as additive as we thought it would be in the new onboarding of conversion, but not an issue to your question of once those clients are inside of our ecosystem.

然後對於那些真正對個性化購物感興趣的人，確保他們盡快獲得訪問權限和可用性。但我認為我們發現，隨著時間的推移，我們預計這兩件事會高度疊加。但在短期內，我們在第一季度看到的部分情況是，在新的轉化率上並沒有像我們想像的那樣增加，但一旦這些客戶進入我們的生態系統，你的問題就不是問題了。

And just one more, if I may. You talked about the transformation being kind of a multiyear endeavor and sounds like there's some bigger tech investments that you're planning here in the near term. So I guess my question is, how should we be thinking about kind of the medium-term revenue growth algorithm? Do more of these multiyear investments need to be coming online in order for revenue to kind of reaccelerate back to the target ranges we were seeing prior to 2022?

還有一個，如果可以的話。你談到轉型是一種多年的努力，聽起來你計劃在短期內進行一些更大的技術投資。所以我想我的問題是，我們應該如何考慮中期收入增長算法？是否需要更多這些多年期投資才能使收入重新加速回到我們在 2022 年之前看到的目標範圍？

Yes. Thank you for asking that. Let me start, and then I'll hand it to Dan. I mean, first of all, I would say, we feel like we probably haven't been as explicit as we could be on the magnitude of transformation that we're going through. It's a very exciting phase for the business. If you think about the first 9 years of our existence, it was building this incredibly disruptive model of Fixes. And now in the last 1.5 years, we've embarked on our second chapter. And it really changes so many elements of our business to build on the foundation of personalization that we've built. So it absolutely takes advantage of our understanding of the style graph, benefiting from 1 million people playing Style Shuffle monthly, understanding what drives fit.

是的。謝謝你這麼問。讓我開始，然後我會把它交給丹。我的意思是，首先，我想說，我們覺得我們可能沒有盡可能明確地說明我們正在經歷的轉型規模。對於企業來說，這是一個非常激動人心的階段。如果你想想我們存在的前 9 年，它正在構建這種令人難以置信的破壞性修復模型。現在，在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們已經開始了我們的第二章。它確實改變了我們業務的許多元素，以建立在我們已經建立的個性化基礎之上。所以它絕對利用了我們對風格圖的理解，受益於每月玩 Style Shuffle 的 100 萬人，了解什麼驅動適合。

But opening up personalized shopping has a huge set of investments for us to understand and make on -- making our infrastructure scalable, ensuring we're building it to launch into new markets, taking our algorithms that were largely behind the scenes and making them highly available and client-facing. And so a lot of what we're doing right now are making those investments. We don't have an exact time line, but it also means building the right team.

但是，開放個性化購物需要我們進行大量投資來理解和推進——使我們的基礎設施具有可擴展性，確保我們構建它以進入新市場，採用我們主要在幕後的算法並使它們高度可用且面向客戶。因此，我們現在正在做的很多事情都是在進行這些投資。我們沒有確切的時間表，但這也意味著建立合適的團隊。

So another big focus, and you can see that in areas like SPC, is we're really growing our tech talent. We've added a new Chief People Officer. We've added a number of VPs and Directors. We'll actually be looking for a new Chief Product Officer in next fiscal year. Our current Chief Product Officer will be departing. So there's just a lot of investments we're making to get that right over the coming quarters. And we anticipate we're doing this for the long game of acceleration in the future. We haven't given a specific time frame. But Dan, I don't know if you want to add on to that and sort of the investments that we're making.

所以另一個重點，你可以在 SPC 等領域看到，我們真的在培養我們的技術人才。我們增加了一位新的首席人事官。我們增加了一些副總裁和董事。實際上，我們將在下一個財政年度尋找新的首席產品官。我們現任首席產品官將離職。因此，我們正在進行大量投資以在未來幾個季度實現這一目標。我們預計我們這樣做是為了未來的長期加速遊戲。我們沒有給出具體的時間框架。但是丹，我不知道你是否想增加我們正在進行的投資。

Yes. I will just add that obviously, there's investments that are shorter term that will have a bigger impact, such as our investment in increasing selection, the improvements that we're making, the features in the onboarding experience, the product features that we'll launch. And then as you noted, the investments that we're making in tech and infrastructure, which are basically investments that we need to scale into new categories and new regions, those will be a bit more long term.

是的。我只想補充一點，很明顯，有些短期投資會產生更大的影響，例如我們在增加選擇方面的投資、我們正在進行的改進、入職體驗中的功能、我們將推出的產品功能發射。然後正如你所指出的，我們在技術和基礎設施方面進行的投資，基本上是我們需要擴展到新類別和新地區的投資，這些投資會更長期一些。

And so I can't answer your question specifically on growth rates, but there's a lot we're doing that's going to have an immediate payback, and there's a lot that we're doing for the long term to scale into new categories, new products and new regions.

所以我不能具體回答你關於增長率的問題，但我們正在做的很多事情都會立即得到回報，而且我們正在做很多事情來長期擴展到新的類別，新的領域產品和新地區。

And we do take our final question today from Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

我們今天確實從 BMO Capital Markets 的 Simeon Siegel 那裡回答了我們的最後一個問題。

(inaudible) off an earlier one. Did you say -- what are you expecting just for gross adds in the guided decline in actives next quarter? And then the same idea but a little bit zooming out. I think we used to talk about the lapsed customer database being this really large opportunity to mine for Freestyle adopters. So any update on that lapsed customer reactivation, learnings you've gotten from the rollout?

（聽不清）關閉較早的一個。您是否說過 - 您對下個季度活躍活動的指導性下降中的總增加量有何期望？然後是同樣的想法，但有點縮小。我想我們過去常常談論失效的客戶數據庫，這是為 Freestyle 採納者挖掘的一個非常大的機會。那麼關於客戶重新激活失效的任何更新，您從推出中獲得的經驗教訓？

And then just lastly, Dan, I mean, congrats on that gross margin strength. Do you want to talk about how you view gross margin opportunity from here? Maybe speak to the differences between Freestyle and Fix and then any important inventory management discrepancies between the 2. Sorry, that was a lot.

最後，丹，我的意思是，祝賀毛利率強勁。你想從這裡談談你如何看待毛利率機會嗎？也許可以談談 Freestyle 和 Fix 之間的區別，然後是兩者之間任何重要的庫存管理差異。抱歉，太多了。

Thank you, Simeon. You were -- I think we maybe missed the very beginning of your question. What I heard was a question on gross adds relative to net in Q2 than activating our prospects and then gross margin. Were those the 3 questions? Or did we miss anything in the upfront?

謝謝你，西蒙。你是——我想我們可能錯過了你問題的開頭。我聽到的是關於第二季度毛增加相對於淨增加的問題，而不是激活我們的前景和毛利率。那是那三個問題嗎？還是我們在前期錯過了什麼？

No, that was perfect.

不，那是完美的。

Okay. Why don't I mention the prospect opportunity and then I can let Dan chime in on the gross adds as well as the gross margin, the first and third question, so I'll take the second. Yes, so as you've mentioned, we have actually millions of clients who have signed up historically with Stitch Fix but not converted to Fix. And so we are always testing on dormant reactivations with those base of clients.

好的。為什麼我不提潛在的機會，然後我可以讓 Dan 談談總增加量和毛利率，第一個和第三個問題，所以我會回答第二個問題。是的，正如你所提到的，我們實際上有數百萬客戶在歷史上註冊過 Stitch Fix 但沒有轉換為 Fix。因此，我們一直在與這些客戶群一起測試休眠重新激活。

And now that we have Freestyle available, we're excited to embark on greater marketing and activation of those clients. And we have seen some accelerated performance with that group, but nothing so big that we're kind of pointing out separately. But we're excited with what we're seeing and see opportunity to just have more to offer to that client base with the opening up of Freestyle. So I think it still represents a somewhat untapped opportunity and as we continue to expand the client experience.

現在我們有 Freestyle 可用，我們很高興能夠開始更大的營銷和激活這些客戶。我們已經看到該小組的一些加速表現，但沒有大到我們要單獨指出的程度。但我們對我們所看到的感到興奮，並看到有機會隨著 Freestyle 的開放為該客戶群提供更多服務。所以我認為它仍然代表著一個未開發的機會，因為我們繼續擴大客戶體驗。

The thing I would say is like clients that are in that population that are within 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, those are a lot more likely to be engaged than folks that went through that sign up flow 2 years ago. So we're really focused on the more recently engaged. The rest of those folks almost behave like pure new prospects. But it's absolutely a segment that we have been marketing to and learning how to activate them with Freestyle in addition to Fixes. I'll hand it to Dan for the other 2 questions.

我要說的是，那些在 1 個月、3 個月、6 個月內處於該人群中的客戶，與 2 年前經歷過註冊流程的人相比，他們更有可能參與進來。所以我們真的專注於最近參與的人。其餘的人幾乎表現得像純粹的新前景。但這絕對是我們一直在營銷並學習如何使用 Freestyle 和 Fixes 激活它們的細分市場。對於其他 2 個問題，我會交給 Dan。

Yes. I mean, on your first part on gross adds, I think it was in reference to Q2. And obviously, the Q2 is one of our weaker quarters. That said, gross adds, we do expect to be -- to continue similar -- in a similar vein that we saw in Q1 and then before starting to grow in Q3. And so just given the marketing channels that we have and what we're seeing with the healthy clients that we are acquiring, gross adds will be similar in Q2 versus Q1.

是的。我的意思是，關於總增加量的第一部分，我認為它是關於第二季度的。顯然，第二季度是我們較弱的季度之一。就是說，毛增加，我們確實希望 - 繼續類似 - 與我們在第一季度看到的類似，然後在第三季度開始增長之前。因此，考慮到我們擁有的營銷渠道以及我們正在獲得的健康客戶所看到的情況，第二季度的總增加量將與第一季度相似。

And the reason for the guide down in net adds is simply because of the high dollar referrals that we referenced earlier on. We are comping that as that program ran through Q2 of last year before we ended it. So that's a very -- that is a short-term comp that we have, which is the reason for the guide on net actives being down quarter-on-quarter before we start to see growth again in Q3.

淨增加指南下降的原因僅僅是因為我們之前提到的高美元推薦。我們正在計算這個項目，因為該項目在我們結束之前貫穿了去年的第二季度。所以這是一個非常 - 這是我們擁有的短期組合，這就是我們在第三季度開始再次看到增長之前淨活動指南環比下降的原因。

In terms of your question on gross margin, the 47% was a very strong gross margin that we had in Q1. We do expect that gross margin to come down slightly over the next several quarters for a variety of reasons. One, we are seeing a mix into more national brands as we continue to launch, that will have a slight impact on gross margins. And we also are seeing product costs continue -- start to come up, which is really across many industries for that matter, higher raw material costs, higher shipping costs. And we do expect gross margins to come down and be similar from a full year perspective as they were in 2021, which was 45%. So from a full year perspective, we see gross margins trending in that direction for the remainder of the year and for the full year.

就你關於毛利率的問題而言，47% 是我們在第一季度的非常強勁的毛利率。由於各種原因，我們確實預計未來幾個季度的毛利率會略有下降。第一，隨著我們繼續推出，我們看到更多民族品牌的組合，這將對毛利率產生輕微影響。而且我們還看到產品成本繼續上升——開始上升，這實際上涉及許多行業，原材料成本上升，運輸成本上升。我們確實預計毛利率會下降，並且從全年的角度來看與 2021 年的 45% 相似。因此，從全年的角度來看，我們看到今年剩餘時間和全年的毛利率都朝著這個方向發展。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us on today's call. We look forward to keeping you updated on our progress.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待著讓您了解我們的最新進展。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。