Spirit Airlines Inc (SAVE) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Spirit Airlines First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Spirit Airlines 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, DeAnne Gabel, Senior Director, Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，投資者關係高級總監 DeAnne Gabel。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Suzanne, and welcome, everyone, to Spirit Airlines' first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. A replay of this call will be archived on our website for 60 days. Presenting on today's call are Ted Christie, Spirit's Chief Executive Officer; Matt Klein, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Scott Haralson, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us in the room are other members of our senior leadership team. Following our prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session for analysts.

謝謝你，蘇珊娜，歡迎大家參加 Spirit Airlines 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此通話並同時進行網絡廣播。該電話的重播將在我們的網站上存檔 60 天。 Spirit 首席執行官 Ted Christie 出席了今天的電話會議；我們的首席商務官 Matt Klein；和我們的首席財務官 Scott Haralson。加入我們會議室的還有我們高級領導團隊的其他成員。在我們準備好的評論之後，將為分析師進行問答環節。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that are based on the company's current expectations and are not a guarantee of future performance. There could be significant risks and uncertainties that cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward-looking statements, including the risk factors discussed in our reports on file with the SEC and the consummation of the merger with Frontier Group Holdings pursuant to the merger agreement entered into on February 5, 2022. The merger is expected to close in the second half of 2022, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including completion of the regulatory review process and approval by Spirit stockholders. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

今天的討論包含基於公司當前預期的前瞻性陳述，並不保證未來的業績。可能存在導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所反映的結果存在重大差異的重大風險和不確定性，包括我們在美國證券交易委員會備案的報告中討論的風險因素，以及根據合併協議於 2022 年 2 月 5 日簽訂。合併預計將於 2022 年下半年完成，但須滿足慣例成交條件，包括完成監管審查程序並獲得 Spirit 股東的批准。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

In comparing results today, we will be adjusting all periods to exclude special items. Please refer to our first quarter 2022 earnings release, which is available on our website for the reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures.

在今天比較結果時，我們將調整所有期間以排除特殊項目。請參閱我們的 2022 年第一季度收益發布，該發布可在我們的網站上獲取，以了解我們的非公認會計原則措施的對賬。

And with that, I turn the call over to Ted.

有了這個，我把電話轉給了 Ted。

Thanks, DeAnne. Thanks to everyone for joining us today. We were very pleased with the strength and demand we saw build throughout the quarter from mid-February on. March saw exceptional strength with total revenue per passenger segment up nearly 10% compared to March 2019, and the improvement in April versus 2019 was even stronger.

謝謝，迪安妮。感謝大家今天加入我們。從 2 月中旬開始，我們對整個季度的增長勢頭和需求感到非常滿意。與 2019 年 3 月相比，3 月份的每個乘客總收入增長了近 10%，與 2019 年相比，4 月份的改善更為強勁。

As we head into the peak summer period, we are very excited by the robust demand strength we are seeing. We estimate our second quarter TRASM will be up between 18% and 21% compared to the second quarter of 2019, which translates into a TRASM that is the highest we've seen since 2014, very encouraging.

當我們進入夏季高峰期時，我們對看到的強勁需求強度感到非常興奮。我們估計，與 2019 年第二季度相比，我們的第二季度 TRASM 將增長 18% 至 21%，這意味著我們看到的 TRASM 是自 2014 年以來的最高水平，非常令人鼓舞。

Before Matt and Scott share the details of our first quarter performance, I want to personally thank all of our Spirit team members for their contributions, patience and service to our guests and each other. The last couple of months have been an exceptionally difficult operating environment for carriers that operate in Florida. And Air Traffic Control has told us that we should expect these challenges to continue this summer until they can address their staffing issues. We participated in an industry meeting this week with the FAA, and it appears that some adjustments are coming. But until we see them contribute, we felt the need to adjust the summer to provide more buffer for our crews, while our other network enhancements take shape.

在馬特和斯科特分享我們第一季度業績的細節之前，我要親自感謝我們所有的精神團隊成員，感謝他們對我們的客人和彼此的貢獻、耐心和服務。對於在佛羅里達州運營的運營商而言，過去幾個月的運營環境異常艱難。空中交通管制部門告訴我們，我們應該期待這些挑戰在今年夏天繼續存在，直到他們能夠解決人員配備問題。本週我們參加了與 FAA 的行業會議，似乎即將進行一些調整。但在我們看到他們做出貢獻之前，我們覺得有必要調整夏季為我們的工作人員提供更多緩衝，同時我們的其他網絡增強功能正在形成。

It is clearly frustrating given our large Florida presence, but we will address it head on and make sure we are appropriately balanced. In the meantime, while our attrition rates have been elevated, we have had no issue sourcing pilots. Our pilot hiring and training is on track and we don't see a staffing concern. While our 2Q performance is disappointing, we expect profits in 3Q, 4Q and beyond as this demand recovery takes hold.

鑑於我們在佛羅里達州的龐大影響力，這顯然令人沮喪，但我們將直面這個問題並確保我們保持適當的平衡。與此同時，雖然我們的流失率有所提高，但我們在採購飛行員方面沒有問題。我們的飛行員招聘和培訓正在進行中，我們沒有看到人員配備問題。雖然我們第二季度的表現令人失望，但隨著需求復甦的持續，我們預計第三季度、第四季度及以後將實現盈利。

Our business is focused on a few very specific and strategic things: one, network reliability enhancements and growth; two, return to peak utilization and profitability; three, record nonticket performance; four, widening the unit cost gap; and five, closing the merger with Frontier. All corporate operational and financial goals are intentionally tied to these items, and we believe all are achievable in the next 12 months.

我們的業務集中在一些非常具體和戰略性的事情上：一，網絡可靠性的增強和增長；二、利用率和盈利能力恢復峰值；三、記錄非票務表現；四、擴大單位成本差距；五、完成與 Frontier 的合併。所有公司的運營和財務目標都有意與這些項目掛鉤，我們相信所有這些目標都可以在未來 12 個月內實現。

And now I'll hand it over to Matt and Scott to discuss our first quarter performance and second quarter outlook. Matt, over to you.

現在我將把它交給馬特和斯科特討論我們第一季度的表現和第二季度的前景。馬特，交給你了。

Thanks, Ted. I join Ted in thanking the Spirit team. Their dedication and commitment to care for our guests is unmatched. Turning now to our first quarter 2022 revenue performance. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, total revenue was up 13% to $967.3 million, and total RASM was down 5.3%. However, midway through the quarter, we saw a dramatic improvement in loads and yields such that March TRASM this year was higher than March 2019, and this was accomplished while simultaneously growing capacity 17.1%.

謝謝，特德。我和 Ted 一起感謝 Spirit 團隊。他們對照顧客人的奉獻精神和承諾是無與倫比的。現在轉向我們 2022 年第一季度的收入表現。與 2019 年第一季度相比，總收入增長 13% 至 9.673 億美元，總 RASM 下降 5.3%。然而，在本季度中期，我們看到負載和產量有了顯著改善，以至於今年 3 月的 TRASM 高於 2019 年 3 月，同時實現了 17.1% 的產能增長。

On a per segment basis, compared to the first quarter of 2019, total revenue per passenger segment increased 3.9%. The passenger revenue per segment component decreased 7.6%, but nonticket per segment increased 14.8% to a record high of $64.53. Our team has done a great job leveraging the benefits of merchandising and dynamically pricing our ancillary products. And there is still nonticket upside left to capture, and we are on track to beat that record in the second quarter of 2022. And given the dramatic improvement in the demand environment, it is anticipated that ticket revenue per segment will significantly outperform what was achieved in the second quarter of 2019. We don't carry a lot of large corporate business traffic, but we do carry a sizable amount of small business and conference traffic, and that's the piece of the recovery that has been missing until now.

按細分市場計算，與 2019 年第一季度相比，每個客運細分市場的總收入增長了 3.9%。每個航段的乘客收入下降了 7.6%，但每個航段的非機票收入增長了 14.8%，達到了 64.53 美元的歷史新高。我們的團隊在利用商品推銷和動態定價我們的輔助產品的優勢方面做得非常出色。而且仍有非門票上漲空間可以捕捉，我們有望在 2022 年第二季度打破這一紀錄。鑑於需求環境的顯著改善，預計每個細分市場的門票收入將大大超過所取得的成績在 2019 年第二季度。我們沒有承載很多大型企業業務流量，但我們確實承載了相當數量的小型企業和會議流量，這是迄今為止一直缺失的複蘇部分。

Regarding the network changes Ted referenced. We are changing our approach to how we financially our aircraft. We are adding bases to the network, and we are modifying our approach to crew planning, which will build more network resiliency and aid in operational recovery. We also have enough critical mass in more cities in our network to schedule a lot more out and back flying, which we did with our schedule change that took effect on April 20. It's only been a couple of weeks, but we are confident these moves should begin to make it easier to isolate impacts when we have regional disruptions like we saw in Florida over Spring Break.

關於 Ted 提到的網絡變化。我們正在改變我們的飛機財務方式。我們正在為網絡增加基地，我們正在修改我們的機組人員規劃方法，這將建立更多的網絡彈性並幫助恢復運營。我們在我們的網絡中的更多城市也有足夠的臨界質量，可以安排更多的往返航班，我們在 4 月 20 日生效的時間表變更中做到了這一點。僅僅幾週，但我們對這些舉措充滿信心當我們在春假期間在佛羅里達州看到的區域中斷時，應該開始更容易隔離影響。

Looking ahead for the second quarter, we estimate our capacity will be up approximately 10.5% versus second quarter 2019. For the full year 2022, we expect to fly about 50 billion ASMs. Our second quarter revenue is estimated to range between $1.32 billion to $1.35 billion, which implies total RASM will be up 18% to 21% compared to the same period in 2019.

展望第二季度，我們估計我們的運力將比 2019 年第二季度增長約 10.5%。到 2022 年全年，我們預計將飛行約 500 億架 ASM。我們第二季度的收入估計在 13.2 億美元至 13.5 億美元之間，這意味著總 RASM 將比 2019 年同期增長 18% 至 21%。

In closing, from a revenue perspective, we like our positioning as we head into the peak summer period. And while this environment is quite favorable, there will be another leg up when international testing requirements are abolished and regional jurisdictions ease.

最後，從收入的角度來看，我們喜歡我們在進入夏季高峰期時的定位。雖然這種環境非常有利，但當國際測試要求被取消和地區司法管轄區放寬時，將會有另一個優勢。

And now here's Scott.

現在是斯科特。

Thanks, Matt. Also I want to start by saying thanks to our entire Spirit team. Even in these challenging periods, our team members have maintained their professionalism and are delivering a great experience for our guests. I've never been prouder to be a part of the Spirit family.

謝謝，馬特。另外，我首先要感謝我們整個 Spirit 團隊。即使在這些充滿挑戰的時期，我們的團隊成員也保持了他們的專業精神，並為我們的客人提供了絕佳的體驗。作為Spirit家族的一員，我從未感到如此自豪。

Now turning to our first quarter 2022 financial performance. We reported an adjusted net loss of $173.5 million or a loss of $1.60 per share. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 11.2%, in line with our expectations. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, total operating costs increased 50.3% on 19.2% more capacity and 32% more aircraft in our fleet.

現在轉向我們 2022 年第一季度的財務業績。我們報告調整後的淨虧損為 1.735 億美元或每股虧損 1.60 美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為負 11.2%，符合我們的預期。與 2019 年第一季度相比，總運營成本增加了 50.3%，原因是我們機隊的運力增加了 19.2%，飛機增加了 32%。

We continue to experience labor cost inflation throughout much of the organization. As a result of the Omicron variant's impact on the company's staffing levels in early January, we offered various incentive pay programs to minimize flight cancellations, leading to additional wage pressures. These incentive pay programs, together with additional passenger reaccommodation expense, drove about $20 million of cost in the quarter. Fuel price was the primary source of the increased operating cost in the quarter. Fuel price per gallon was 41.1% higher than the same period in 2019.

我們在整個組織的大部分地區繼續經歷勞動力成本膨脹。由於 Omicron 變體在 1 月初對公司員工水平的影響，我們提供了各種獎勵薪酬計劃以盡量減少航班取消，從而導致額外的工資壓力。這些激勵薪酬計劃，加上額外的乘客重新住宿費用，在本季度推動了約 2000 萬美元的成本。燃油價格是本季度運營成本增加的主要來源。每加侖燃油價格比 2019 年同期上漲 41.1%。

From a liquidity perspective, we remain in a strong position. We ended the first quarter with $1.6 billion in liquidity, which includes unrestricted cash, short-term investments and $240 million of available capacity under our revolving credit facility. During the first quarter, we made debt principal payments of $44.3 million and had capital expenditures, including net purchase deposits of $53.2 million. For the full year of 2022, we estimate our capital expenditures, including net purchase deposits, will be approximately $250 million, which includes $100 million related to the construction of our new headquarters and training facility in Dania Beach, just south of the Fort Lauderdale airport here in South Florida.

從流動性的角度來看，我們仍然處於強勢地位。我們在第一季度結束時擁有 16 億美元的流動性，其中包括不受限制的現金、短期投資和循環信貸額度下的 2.4 億美元可用產能。在第一季度，我們支付了 4430 萬美元的債務本金和資本支出，包括 5320 萬美元的淨購買存款。對於 2022 年全年，我們估計我們的資本支出（包括淨購買存款）將約為 2.5 億美元，其中包括與在勞德代爾堡機場以南的達尼亞海灘建設新總部和培訓設施有關的 1 億美元在南佛羅里達州。

Turning to our fleet. During the first quarter, we took delivery of 3 A320neo aircraft, ending the quarter with 176 aircrafts in our fleet. We expect to take delivery of 21 additional A320neos before year-end.

轉向我們的艦隊。第一季度，我們接收了 3 架 A320neo 飛機，到本季度末，我們的機隊擁有 176 架飛機。我們預計在年底前接收另外 21 架 A320neo。

For the second quarter 2022, we estimate our pretax margin will range between negative 3% to negative 5%. This assumes total operating expenses of $1.35 billion to $1.37 billion with a fuel price per gallon assumption of $3.85 to $3.90. The impact of the ATC issues and the corresponding reduction of capacity in the quarter will cost us about 3 to 4 points on the margin. Our fleet utilization for the second quarter will be about 83% of our pre-COVID second quarter levels. We believe we could have been profitable with about 90% of our pre-COVID second quarter utilization.

對於 2022 年第二季度，我們估計我們的稅前利潤率將在負 3% 到負 5% 之間。這假設總運營費用為 13.5 億美元至 13.7 億美元，每加侖燃料價格假設為 3.85 美元至 3.90 美元。 ATC 問題的影響以及本季度相應的運力減少將使我們損失大約 3 到 4 個百分點。我們第二季度的機隊利用率將是我們第二季度 COVID 之前水平的 83% 左右。我們相信，我們本可以在 COVID 之前的第二季度利用約 90% 的情況下實現盈利。

Maintaining our unit cost advantage over the industry is an important pillar of our model. Even though we have had outsized impacts to our labor costs when compared to some of the other carriers in the industry, we still had the lowest CASM ex-fuel plus interest in the industry in the first quarter. In fact, our absolute CASM ex-fuel difference has grown larger versus the industry compared to the first quarter of 2019. As we ramp the airline back to full utilization, we expect to maintain or even grow this gap.

保持我們在行業中的單位成本優勢是我們模式的重要支柱。儘管與業內其他一些承運人相比，我們對勞動力成本產生了巨大的影響，但我們在第一季度仍然擁有行業中最低的 CASM 燃料加利息。事實上，與 2019 年第一季度相比，我們的絕對 CASM 前燃料差異與行業相比已經擴大。隨著我們將航空公司恢復到充分利用，我們預計將保持甚至擴大這一差距。

With our robust pilot pipeline, the operational infrastructure investments we are making and the network improvements being implemented to go along with the strong demand environment and nonticket production, we feel confident about our ability to get the airline back to full utilization and a return to pre-COVID profit levels in the near future.

憑藉我們強大的試點管道、我們正在進行的運營基礎設施投資以及正在實施的網絡改進，以配合強勁的需求環境和非機票生產，我們對我們讓航空公司恢復充分利用和恢復之前的能力充滿信心-在不久的將來COVID利潤水平。

In closing, while the closed-in ATC challenges have caused us to react with lower utilization in the short term, over time, the network changes that Matt discussed, along with the corresponding changes in our crew planning process and crew bases, will give us the necessary resiliency and confidence to hit our end of year utilization rates that are around 95% of our pre-COVID levels and then back to full capacity just after the turn of the new year.

最後，雖然封閉的 ATC 挑戰導致我們在短期內以較低的利用率做出反應，但隨著時間的推移，Matt 討論的網絡變化，以及我們的機組規劃過程和機組基地的相應變化，將為我們提供必要的彈性和信心，以使我們的年末利用率達到 COVID 之前水平的 95% 左右，然後在新年之際恢復滿負荷。

With that, I'll hand it back to Ted.

有了這個，我會把它還給泰德。

Thanks, Scott. As we gear up for the busy summer season, we are committed to deliver operational excellence and high value to our guests.

謝謝，斯科特。隨著我們為繁忙的夏季做準備，我們致力於為客人提供卓越的運營和高價值。

Now I'd like to address the status of our pending merger with Frontier Airlines and our Board's decision to reject JetBlue's proposal. I'll walk you through a slide deck we posted on our IR site earlier today. On Slide 2, we hit the high points. To start, after a very thorough review, our Board of Directors unanimously determined that the unsolicited proposal we received from JetBlue Airways does not constitute a "superior proposal" because the transaction proposed by JetBlue is not reasonably capable of being consummated.

現在我想談談我們與 Frontier Airlines 的未決合併狀態以及我們董事會拒絕捷藍航空提議的決定。我將帶您瀏覽我們今天早些時候在我們的 IR 網站上發布的幻燈片。在幻燈片 2 上，我們達到了最高點。首先，經過非常徹底的審查，我們的董事會一致確定，我們從捷藍航空公司收到的主動提議並不構成“優越提議”，因為捷藍提出的交易無法合理地完成。

First, let me clarify. The definition of a superior proposal under the Frontier merger agreement is a two-pronged decision, the first of which is whether it is reasonably capable of being consummated; and the second of which is whether it is economically superior. Because our Board's evaluation could not clear the first hurdle, the Board did not evaluate whether the price offered by JetBlue, standing alone, provided greater value than our deal with Frontier.

首先，讓我澄清一下。 Frontier併購協議下對上級提案的定義是兩方面的決定，一是能否合理地完善；第二個是經濟上是否優越。由於我們董事會的評估無法清除第一個障礙，因此董事會沒有評估 JetBlue 單獨提供的價格是否比我們與 Frontier 的交易更有價值。

As part of the review process, we talked constructively with JetBlue, including providing a well-populated virtual data room and engaging in discussions. The #1 gating determination we needed to make was: could this proposal be reasonably capable of being consummated? In particular, would it be approved by regulators? After receiving advice from our legal and economic advisers, which was informed by extensive discussions with JetBlue and its advisers, our Board's determination was no.

作為審查過程的一部分，我們與捷藍航空進行了建設性的交談，包括提供一個人滿為患的虛擬數據室並參與討論。我們需要做出的#1 門控決定是：這個提案是否能夠合理地完成？特別是，它會得到監管機構的批准嗎？在收到我們的法律和經濟顧問的建議後，在與捷藍航空及其顧問進行廣泛討論後，我們董事會的決定是否定的。

The reality is that regulators are already suing JetBlue over its Northeast alliance with American. And it's unlikely the DOJ or report will be persuaded that JetBlue should be allowed to form an anticompetitive alliance that aligns its interest with a legacy carrier and then also undertake an acquisition that would eliminate the largest ULCC carrier.

現實情況是，監管機構已經在起訴捷藍航空與美國航空的東北聯盟。 DOJ 或報告不太可能被說服，應該允許 JetBlue 組建一個反競爭聯盟，將其利益與傳統運營商保持一致，然後進行收購，以消除最大的 ULCC 運營商。

JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit would eliminate a key competitor and a vocal public opponent of JetBlue's anticompetitive NEA deal. And if you take a step back, at its core, the JetBlue proposal is a high-cost, high-fare airline trying to buy a low-cost, low-fare airline. A JetBlue Spirit merger would likely eliminate Spirit as a ULCC and half the expected synergies would come from reduced capacity and increased fares to consumers.

JetBlue 收購 Spirit 將消除一個主要競爭對手和 JetBlue 反競爭 NEA 交易的公開反對者。如果你退後一步，捷藍航空提案的核心是一家高成本、高票價的航空公司，試圖收購一家低成本、低票價的航空公司。 JetBlue Spirit 合併可能會消除 Spirit 作為 ULCC，預期協同效應的一半將來自容量減少和消費者票價增加。

In contrast, the Frontier deal creates a stronger combined ULCC and a much more formidable competitor against the big 4 and JetBlue as well. You don't need to be an antitrust attorney to see the issues here. JetBlue talks about the "JetBlue effect" as their way of putting pressure on the big 4, but we believe that claim is based on economic modeling to have significant defects and overstates the impact of JetBlue on legacy carriers.

相比之下，Frontier 交易創造了一個更強大的聯合 ULCC 和一個更強大的競爭對手，對抗四大和捷藍航空。您無需成為反壟斷律師即可查看此處的問題。 JetBlue 談到“JetBlue 效應”是他們向四大航空公司施加壓力的方式，但我們認為這種說法是基於經濟模型存在重大缺陷並誇大了 JetBlue 對傳統航空公司的影響。

So if you turn to Slide 3, Spirit and our advisers undertook a thorough careful review of JetBlue's proposal. This included retaining prominent economic consultants and an experienced aviation economist as well as extensive dialogue between Spirit and JetBlue's antitrust councils over a 4-week period. At the end of that investigation, our Board determined that JetBlue's proposal represented an unsatisfactory high degree of completion risk with inadequate protections for our shareholders. So on April 25, we went back to JetBlue to outline how we would propose strengthening the regulatory provisions to reduce completion risk. We proposed a strong covenant requiring JetBlue to take any action required to obtain regulatory clearance, including abandoning the NEA at closing and a substantial reverse termination fee. However, JetBlue rejected those proposals and instead made it clear their #1 priority was preserving the NEA with American.

因此，如果您轉到幻燈片 3，Spirit 和我們的顧問對 JetBlue 的提議進行了徹底的仔細審查。這包括保留傑出的經濟顧問和經驗豐富的航空經濟學家，以及 Spirit 和捷藍航空的反壟斷委員會之間為期 4 週的廣泛對話。在調查結束時，我們的董事會確定捷藍航空的提議代表了不令人滿意的高度完成風險，對我們的股東的保護不足。因此，在 4 月 25 日，我們回到捷藍航空，概述了我們將如何建議加強監管規定以降低完工風險。我們提出了一項強有力的契約，要求捷藍航空採取任何必要的行動來獲得監管許可，包括在交易結束時放棄 NEA 和大量的反向終止費。然而，捷藍航空拒絕了這些提議，而是明確表示他們的第一要務是與美國航空一起維護 NEA。

As I said, we believe a JetBlue deal is unlikely to be approved so long as JetBlue's NEA with American Airlines remains in existence. The DOJ and Attorneys General in 6 states and the District of Columbia have sued to block the NEA. And you'll see on Slide 4, the DOJ's strong public commentary in opposition to the NEA. Spirit and many other airline and air travel constituencies have also publicly opposed the NEA on the grounds that it is competitive. It stretches any sort of common sense to believe that an acquisition of Spirit by JetBlue would be approved by the DOJ while it is suing to block the NEA.

正如我所說，只要捷藍航空與美國航空公司的 NEA 仍然存在，我們認為捷藍航空的交易不太可能獲得批准。 6 個州和哥倫比亞特區的司法部和總檢察長已起訴阻止 NEA。您將在幻燈片 4 中看到 DOJ 強烈反對 NEA 的公開評論。 Spirit 和許多其他航空公司和航空旅行的支持者也公開反對 NEA，理由是它具有競爭力。任何一種常識都認為捷藍航空收購 Spirit 會得到司法部的批准，同時它正在起訴阻止 NEA。

So I'll have you skip now to Slide 7. As observers have pointed out, JetBlue's shareholders aren't supportive of this deal either based on the company's stock performance. However, despite clear concern from JetBlue shareholders, JetBlue has continued to pursue disruption to the Spirit Frontier combination. I have wondered whether blocking our deal with Frontier is, in fact, their goal.

所以我現在讓你跳到幻燈片 7。正如觀察家所指出的那樣，基於公司的股票表現，捷藍航空的股東也不支持這筆交易。然而，儘管 JetBlue 股東明確表示擔憂，JetBlue 仍繼續尋求破壞 Spirit Frontier 組合。我想知道阻止我們與 Frontier 的交易實際上是否是他們的目標。

Over the last month, we've seen a lot of third parties comment on the deal. You'll see on Slide 8, there has been a consistent and vocal commentary from informed market participants, such as you all, arguing that a JetBlue and Spirit combination faces significant regulatory scrutiny and substantial completion risk. This is in stark contrast to third-party agreement that a Frontier Spirit merger delivers greater closing certainty, driven by great competition in the U.S. industry on Slide 9.

在過去的一個月裡，我們看到很多第三方對這筆交易發表了評論。您將在幻燈片 8 上看到，來自知情的市場參與者（例如你們所有人）的一致和直言不諱的評論認為，JetBlue 和 Spirit 的組合面臨著重大的監管審查和重大的完成風險。這與第三方協議形成鮮明對比，即在幻燈片 9 上美國行業的激烈競爭推動 Frontier Spirit 合併提供了更大的成交確定性。

So with that now understood, the Board determined that the JetBlue proposal was not superior, which means we return our focus to the Frontier transaction, which we believe delivers on all fronts.

因此，現在理解這一點後，董事會確定 JetBlue 的提議並不優越，這意味著我們將重點重新放在 Frontier 交易上，我們相信該交易在所有方面都能實現。

Looking at Slide 10. Clearly, a combination of Spirit and Frontier is a winning formula, and it continues to be a superior transaction for Spirit guests, team members and shareholders. For consumers and communities, it will deliver $1 billion in annual consumer savings and bring more ultra-low fares to more travelers and more destinations across the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean, including major cities as well as underserved communities.

看看幻燈片 10。顯然，Spirit 和 Frontier 的結合是一個成功的公式，對於 Spirit 客人、團隊成員和股東來說，它仍然是一項卓越的交易。對於消費者和社區而言，它將每年為消費者節省 10 億美元，並為美國、拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的更多旅客和更多目的地（包括主要城市以及服務欠缺的社區）帶來更多超低價票價。

The stronger financial profile of the combined company will empower to accelerate investment in innovation and growth, and to compete even more aggressively, especially against the dominant big 4 airlines and JetBlue. We also expect our team members will have better career opportunities and more stability as a result of our transaction with Frontier. In fact, by 2026, Frontier and Spirit expect to add 10,000 direct jobs and thousands of additional jobs at the company's business partners. And shareholders of both Spirit and Frontier have the opportunity to participate in the upside potential of the combined airline. As I mentioned, the price per share in the JetBlue proposal is illusory because the completion risk. That said, I want to touch for a minute on the economics.

合併後公司更強勁的財務狀況將有助於加速創新和增長投資，並進行更積極的競爭，尤其是與占主導地位的四大航空公司和捷藍航空的競爭。我們也期望我們的團隊成員通過與 Frontier 的交易將有更好的職業機會和更穩定的工作。事實上，到 2026 年，Frontier 和 Spirit 預計將在公司的業務合作夥伴處增加 10,000 個直接工作崗位和數千個額外工作崗位。 Spirit 和 Frontier 的股東都有機會參與合併後航空公司的上行潛力。正如我所提到的，由於完成風險，JetBlue 提案中的每股價格是虛幻的。也就是說，我想談一談經濟學。

JetBlue's all-cash offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of pandemic-induced lows in the airline profitability. It's important that shareholders understand that in the unlikely event that the JetBlue transaction could close, it could be up to 2 years before Spirit shareholders receive the offer consideration due to an extended regulatory process. Over that time, the airline sector recovery will continue. So our proposed merger with Frontier, which includes stock consideration, give Spirit shareholders the ability to benefit from pandemic recovery and the upside from unlocking $500 million in annual run rate operating synergies.

捷藍航空的全現金報價恰逢時機，以利用大流行導致的航空公司盈利能力低點。重要的是，股東們必須明白，萬一捷藍航空交易完成，由於監管程序延長，Spirit 股東可能需要長達 2 年的時間才能收到要約對價。在那段時間裡，航空業的複蘇將繼續。因此，我們提議的與 Frontier 的合併（包括股票對價）使 Spirit 股東能夠從大流行的複蘇中受益，並從釋放 5 億美元的年運行率運營協同效應中獲益。

So in terms of next steps, we continue to advance towards completing the combination with Frontier and expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2022, consistent with what we have said when the merger was first announced in February.

因此，就下一步而言，我們將繼續推進完成與 Frontier 的合併，並預計交易將在 2022 年下半年完成，這與我們在 2 月首次宣布合併時所說的一致。

With all that, I'll turn it back to DeAnne.

綜上所述，我將把它轉回給 DeAnne。

Thank you, Ted. We are now ready to take questions from the analysts. (Operator Instructions) Suzanne, we're ready to begin.

謝謝你，泰德。我們現在準備接受分析師的提問。 （操作員說明）蘇珊娜，我們準備好開始了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Duane Pfennigwerth。

You obviously covered some of this in your comments and in the slide deck. But can you expand on why you think the NEA is such an important piece of the puzzle? If we read your rejection at face value, it sounds like if the NEA wasn't on the table that this is something maybe you'd be more comfortable with approval odds. So can you just talk about the process you went through? What you learned over the last few weeks? And why you think the NEA is such an important puzzle piece?

您的評論和幻燈片中顯然涵蓋了其中的一些內容。但是您能否詳細說明為什麼您認為 NEA 是難題中如此重要的一部分？如果我們從表面上看你的拒絕，聽起來如果 NEA 不在桌面上，這可能是你對批准機率更滿意的事情。那麼你能談談你經歷的過程嗎？你在過去幾週學到了什麼？為什麼你認為NEA是一塊如此重要的拼圖？

Sure, Duane. So I think there's actually 3 important puzzle pieces. So clearly, when we have a suitor that is being actively sued by the Department of Justice for a stated anticompetitive transaction, and admittedly, we are a vocal opponent of that transaction, and we expect we might be a witness in that particular lawsuit. It strikes us as odd that they think they could actually close on a transaction with us during that period of time. So that is puzzle piece number one.

當然，杜安。所以我認為實際上有 3 個重要的拼圖。很明顯，當我們有一個追求者被司法部積極起訴一項既定的反競爭交易時，誠然，我們是該交易的直言不諱的反對者，我們希望我們可能成為該特定訴訟的證人。讓我們感到奇怪的是，他們認為他們實際上可以在這段時間內完成與我們的交易。這就是第一塊拼圖。

I would say, second to that, as I mentioned in our comments, at its core, JetBlue is a higher-cost, higher-fare airline, and they've stated to us that their plan is to acquire us. Again, a ULCC, a lower-cost lower-fare airline, they intend to remove seats, which is capacity constrained, and the synergy benefit of that deal would come through fare increases. And given the stated objectives at the department's level, we view that as extremely challenging -- an extremely challenging strategy.

我想說，其次，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，捷藍航空的核心是一家成本更高、票價更高的航空公司，他們向我們表示，他們的計劃是收購我們。同樣，作為一家 ULCC，一家成本較低、票價較低的航空公司，他們打算取消運力受限的座位，而該交易的協同效應將通過票價上漲來實現。鑑於部門級別的既定目標，我們認為這是極具挑戰性的 - 一個極具挑戰性的戰略。

The third is that during the course of that proposed regulatory review process, given that we expect that not only would the department oppose this transaction, but they would actually file suit to stop it. We expect that, that process could take 18, 24 months or longer. And during that period of time, given the state of objectives of JetBlue, we have concern about our own business risk here. We have worries about flight of quality and attrition and all of that.

第三是在提議的監管審查過程中，鑑於我們預計該部門不僅會反對這項交易，而且他們實際上會提起訴訟以阻止它。我們預計，該過程可能需要 18、24 個月或更長時間。在那段時間裡，鑑於捷藍航空的目標狀況，我們擔心自己的業務風險。我們擔心質量和損耗以及所有這些問題。

And so in order to make sure that we felt we were being compensated for that, we asked for a substantial reverse termination fee. And admittedly, we don't know whether or not it is even adequate to cover the risk or to compensate us for that risk during that period, but that's how we look to address it. So to repeat, we said to JetBlue, "We believe you're going to need to commit to do anything in your power to get this approved by regulators, which is called a hell or high water provision." And as an adjunct to that, also include that you would have to acknowledge that you would abandon the NEA. In addition to that, you need to commit to a substantial reverse termination fee, and they said no to all 3 of those things.

因此，為了確保我們覺得我們得到了補償，我們要求支付大量的反向終止費。誠然，我們不知道在此期間是否足以彌補風險或補償我們的風險，但這就是我們希望解決的方法。因此，重複一遍，我們對捷藍航空說：“我們認為，您將需要儘自己的力量去做任何事情來獲得監管機構的批准，這被稱為地獄或高水位供應。”作為補充，還包括您必須承認您將放棄 NEA。除此之外，您需要支付大量的反向終止費，他們對所有這三件事都說不。

And so our Board was left with the decision that we believe it to be an inferior proposal. And for that reason, we've moved on. So yes, the NEA is clearly problematic, but so is the overall strategy and the rest of the discussion and the risk that we would need to take and our shareholders would bear all of that risk.

因此，我們的董事會做出了我們認為這是一個劣質提案的決定。出於這個原因，我們繼續前進。所以是的，NEA 顯然是有問題的，但整體戰略和其餘討論以及我們需要承擔的風險以及我們的股東將承擔所有這些風險也是如此。

Okay, Ted. Can you maybe just talk about process from here? When would you expect a shareholder vote? And what other kind of milestones should investors be watching for?

好的，泰德。你能從這裡談談過程嗎？您希望什麼時候進行股東投票？投資者還應該關注哪些其他里程碑？

Sure. So the good news is during the course of this period, we have also been working simultaneously on advancing the Frontier transaction, which is really tied to soliciting approval from 2 groups: the first is our shareholders, and as has been publicly reported, and you can see it in our SEC filings, we've been back and forth with the SEC on the S-4 and the merger proxy document, which during the SEC comment period, we've resolved. We believe all of those comments, so we think we're at the very tail end of that process right now. So that moved along maybe a little bit quicker than we anticipated.

當然。好消息是，在此期間，我們也一直在同時推進 Frontier 交易，這實際上與徵求兩組批准有關：第一組是我們的股東，正如公開報導的那樣，以及您可以在我們的 SEC 文件中看到，我們一直在與 SEC 就 S-4 和合併代理文件來回討論，在 SEC 評論期間，我們已經解決了這些問題。我們相信所有這些評論，因此我們認為我們現在正處於該過程的最後階段。所以這可能比我們預期的要快一點。

And the way that SEC rules work is once that merger document is finalized and it goes effective, then you can schedule a shareholders meeting and solicit a vote from your shareholders. What can happen probably within 30 and 45 days after the effective date of the merger proxy, so we anticipate that probably happening sometime in June.

SEC 規則的工作方式是，一旦合併文件最終確定並生效，您就可以安排股東大會並徵求股東的投票。在合併代理生效後的 30 到 45 天內可能會發生什麼，因此我們預計這可能會在 6 月的某個時候發生。

And then the second approval body that we need to solicit approval from is obviously the Department of Justice. So we had filed early in March, our initial filing on that, the HSR filings and submitted with them the forms that we needed with regard to that. As we expected, we received a request, a second request as it's referred to, for more information. And we've been working with the department to satisfy all of those, everything they need and answer their questions. And then we will work with them to resolve the issues. And we're optimistic that we have a fantastic story to tell here that we think we have a very procompetitive deal. And as we stated back in February, we're optimistic we can get that resolved and closed sometime in the second half of this year. So those are probably the next 2 gating items to look out for.

然後我們需要徵求批准的第二個批准機構顯然是司法部。因此，我們在 3 月初提交了最初的文件，即 HSR 文件，並與他們一起提交了我們需要的表格。正如我們所料，我們收到了一個請求，即第二個請求，要求提供更多信息。我們一直在與該部門合作，以滿足所有這些，他們需要的一切並回答他們的問題。然後我們將與他們合作解決問題。我們很樂觀，我們有一個精彩的故事可以在這裡講述，我們認為我們有一個非常有競爭力的交易。正如我們在二月份所說的那樣，我們很樂觀，我們可以在今年下半年的某個時候解決並關閉這個問題。所以這些可能是接下來要注意的兩個門控項目。

Our next question comes from the line of Savi Syth from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Just curious on the capacity plan that you've laid out. Just what gives you comfort in really accelerating your capacity growth from third quarter to fourth quarter, given kind of the constraints you're addressing over the summer? And along those lines, just how should we think about 2023 capacity? Does it kind of grow off of a lower base? Or similar to 4Q, you're able to just kind of play catch up to the level that you were planning to grow anyway?

只是對您制定的容量計劃感到好奇。考慮到您在夏季要解決的限制，是什麼讓您真正從第三季度到第四季度加速產能增長？沿著這些思路，我們應該如何看待 2023 年的產能？它是從較低的基礎上生長出來的嗎？或者類似於 4Q，你能夠趕上你計劃發展的水平嗎？

Sure, Savi. So if we look back to where the airline industry was at the second half of last year, there was a lot of discussion about ramping up pilot hiring, training, doing all of that work. And we adapted to that early on by making sure that we had established enough infrastructure and throughput to get ourselves in a position to be able to meet our growth objectives throughout the course of 2022 and beyond and actually feel very comfortable that those things are in place and working well. So absent any interruption that we saw earlier this year with regard to how aerospace was being managed in Florida, we would have flown our original schedule. So I think it's fair to say that the slope that you see from the second and third and fourth quarters is probably artificially restrained versus what we would otherwise fly. In fact, you can see from our publicly filed schedules when we made the adjustment, we pulled somewhere around 5% to 7% out of the core summer months, which is pretty notable, especially during a very profitable period for our business.

當然，薩維。因此，如果我們回顧去年下半年航空業的情況，就會有很多關於增加飛行員招聘、培訓以及完成所有這些工作的討論。我們很早就適應了這一點，確保我們已經建立了足夠的基礎設施和吞吐量，以使自己能夠在整個 2022 年及以後實現我們的增長目標，並且實際上對這些事情已經到位感到非常自在並且運作良好。因此，如果沒有我們今年早些時候看到的關於佛羅里達州航空航天管理方式的任何中斷，我們就會按照原來的時間表飛行。所以我認為可以公平地說，你從第二節、第三節和第四節看到的斜坡可能是人為限制的，而不是我們本來會飛的。實際上，您可以從我們進行調整時公開提交的時間表中看到，我們在核心夏季月份中減少了大約 5% 到 7%，這是非常值得注意的，尤其是在我們的業務非常有利可圖的時期。

So I think, looking at it that way, probably gives you a little bit more comfort that the glide slope is probably a little more rational heading into the second half of the year. So what do we expect are the things that will take hold? Clearly, our pilot and flight attendant and other necessary staffing initiatives are well underway and working exactly as we anticipated, so we don't see that as being a limiting factor.

所以我認為，這樣看，可能會讓你更舒服一點，下滑坡可能會在今年下半年更合理一些。那麼，我們期望會發生什麼？顯然，我們的飛行員和空乘人員以及其他必要的人員配備計劃正在順利進行，並且完全按照我們的預期工作，因此我們不認為這是一個限制因素。

Secondarily, we -- as Matt mentioned, we've been making as a debrief and a learnings exercise from last summer, we've been making a number of network and crew network enhancements throughout our network that we believe, and as Matt mentioned, start taking effect really here in April. But in core, a lot of the changes beginning more in the core part of summer. Those things, we are extremely optimistic will be very valuable in enhancing reliability for the business, which gives us again, additional -- will give us additional confidence that we can hit our growth targets. Admittedly, we want to see a little game film. We want to see it kind of work and all that. But based on our experience and what we've investigated around with experts and looked at how other airlines tackle similar issues, we think these are going to be very effective changes for us.

其次，我們 - 正如馬特所提到的，我們從去年夏天開始一直在進行匯報和學習練習，我們一直在我們相信的整個網絡中進行一些網絡和工作人員網絡增強，正如馬特所提到的，四月開始真正在這裡生效。但在核心部分，很多變化更多是在夏季的核心部分開始的。這些事情，我們非常樂觀，對於提高業務的可靠性非常有價值，這再次給了我們額外的 - 會給我們額外的信心，我們可以實現我們的增長目標。不可否認，我們想看一部小遊戲電影。我們希望看到它的工作和所有這些。但根據我們的經驗以及我們與專家的調查以及其他航空公司如何解決類似問題的情況，我們認為這些對我們來說將是非常有效的改變。

And then the third is how we have reacted to and what we anticipate for management of the airspace in Florida specifically. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, there was a very productive meeting this week between the FAA, ATC and all the operators. So every airline was represented there, and they acknowledge that they definitely had some issues here in Jacksonville Center, and perhaps in other stations throughout their system, but they were working quickly to resolve those staffing-related concerns. And also proactively working with airlines on finding alternative ways to resolve where they might otherwise have been much more binary in the way they approach the airspace. So giving us more options to work around it, and we're going to continue to engage with them. We think now we have a good understanding between the 2 sides of the actual problem and what needs to be addressed. And so while we can't base all of our planning assumptions on them making sure that it looks exactly like it used to look, we are confident that the mix of all those things that I just described will give us the ability to kind of grow into the fourth quarter of this year.

第三個是我們對佛羅里達空域管理的具體反應和預期。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，本週 FAA、ATC 和所有運營商之間舉行了一次非常富有成效的會議。所以每家航空公司都有代表在那裡，他們承認他們在傑克遜維爾中心肯定有一些問題，也許在他們系統的其他車站，但他們正在迅速解決這些與人員配備相關的問題。並且還積極與航空公司合作，尋找替代方法來解決他們在接近空域的方式上可能會更加二元化的問題。所以給我們更多的選擇來解決它，我們將繼續與他們互動。我們認為現在我們對實際問題的兩個方面以及需要解決的問題有了很好的理解。因此，雖然我們不能將所有的規劃假設都建立在它們的基礎上，以確保它看起來與過去一模一樣，但我們相信，我剛才描述的所有這些東西的組合將使我們有能力成長進入今年第四季度。

Now looking into next year, the way we're thinking about growth is, as Scott has mentioned numerous times, is really utilization based. How do we get ourselves back to the way we ran our airline pre-COVID, which is on a fleet utilization daily hours per aircraft basis? Because we've been delivering aircraft throughout the course of the pandemic, and I think Scott even made a reference to it in his comments that we may be growing ASMs 15% to 20%, but we've grown aircraft 30-plus percent, which is obviously burdening the fixed cost of the business. So getting back to full utilization is key. And all of these things that I talked about, we believe translates that as we cross the new year and head into the first quarter of next year. And that will help you arrive at what you think our growth rate will be. It will definitely be skewed on a year-over-year basis in the early part of the year because we're under flying what we should fly today, but it will start to look more normal as we lap that.

現在展望明年，正如斯科特多次提到的那樣，我們考慮增長的方式實際上是基於利用率的。我們如何讓自己回到我們在 COVID 之前運營航空公司的方式，即以每架飛機每天的機隊利用率為基礎？因為我們在整個大流行期間一直在交付飛機，我認為 Scott 在他的評論中甚至提到了它，我們可能會將 ASM 增長 15% 到 20%，但我們的飛機增長了 30% 以上，這顯然加重了企業的固定成本。因此，恢復充分利用是關鍵。我談到的所有這些事情，我們相信在我們跨過新年並進入明年第一季度時會轉化為這一點。這將幫助您達到您認為的我們的增長率。它肯定會在今年年初與去年同期相比出現偏差，因為我們正在飛行我們今天應該飛行的飛行，但隨著我們的飛行，它會開始看起來更正常。

That's helpful. And if I might follow up on that, just given you have mentioned kind of the network changes that you're making to kind of improve the operational reliability. Does that -- how does that impact kind of productivity or even utilization? Does that change that -- the makeup versus precrisis where maybe less productive or greater utilization less utilization? How does the kind of the network changes impact kind of the makeup of the rest of the kind of utilization aspect of it?

這很有幫助。如果我可以跟進，只要您提到了您為提高運營可靠性而進行的網絡更改。那 - 這如何影響生產力甚至利用率？這是否會改變這一點——彌補與危機前的生產力可能較低或利用率較高而利用率較低？網絡變化的種類如何影響它的其他利用方面的構成？

It's a great question, Savi, and thanks for leading the witness because we want to tackle this head on. There would be an assumption that you would make that the changes that we described, which would include adding some crew bases, for example, changing the way crew pairings or the trips themselves, how long they are away from their base makes the airline easier to repair, easier to reserve during times of interruption, those types of changes. You may lead to the conclusion that, that actually might be lower productivity or cost punitive. The truth of the matter is, today, in our cost structure, we band-aid that by with other -- through other ways. We have higher reserves, we have higher sparing ratios and we have more buffer in the form of block and crude buffer in our systems today, and as part of our cost structure today intended to address the issue. With this change, you're really at a minimum, perhaps changing the distribution of the existing cost in ways that will enhance reliability or we're actually somewhat optimistic it may produce cost savings on the net.

這是一個很好的問題，Savi，感謝您帶領證人，因為我們想要正面解決這個問題。假設您會做出我們描述的更改，其中包括添加一些機組人員基地，例如，更改機組人員配對或旅行本身的方式，他們離開基地的時間使航空公司更容易維修，更容易在中斷期間保留，這些類型的更改。您可能會得出這樣的結論：這實際上可能會降低生產力或降低成本。事情的真相是，今天，在我們的成本結構中，我們通過其他方式——通過其他方式來創可貼。我們有更高的儲備，我們有更高的備用率，並且我們今天在我們的系統中以區塊和原油緩衝的形式擁有更多的緩衝，並且作為我們今天旨在解決這個問題的成本結構的一部分。有了這種變化，您實際上至少可以改變現有成本的分佈，從而提高可靠性，或者我們實際上有點樂觀，它可能會在網絡上產生成本節約。

And utilization will remain the same because all you do is really reposition the way the aircraft flow in ways that you maintain your utilization, which means you may, in some instances, have to stretch the day a little bit. So you start your origination flights a little earlier than you otherwise might. But there are plenty of ways for the network team to kind of piece things together to maintain fleet utilization. And then overall crew productivity, we view as probably neutral at a minimum, perhaps probably better.

利用率將保持不變，因為您所做的只是重新定位飛機的流動方式，以保持您的利用率，這意味著在某些情況下，您可能不得不稍微延長一天的時間。因此，您比其他方式更早地開始您的始發航班。但是網絡團隊有很多方法可以將事情拼湊起來以維持車隊的利用率。然後是整體船員生產力，我們認為至少可能是中性的，也許可能更好。

Our next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Catherine O'Brien。

I might just stay on the cost topic. So on prior calls, you've spoken to getting to sub-$0.06 CASM at prepandemic utilization. Has that changed at all just given the inflation we're seeing across the industry and the economy at large? And then also just taking into account the retention bonuses you're paying due to the proposed merger? And then can you just give us some color on the cost structure impact of those retention bonuses we should think about going forward?

我可能只停留在成本話題上。因此，在之前的電話中，您已經談到在大流行前使用低於 0.06 美元的 CASM。考慮到我們在整個行業和整個經濟中看到的通貨膨脹，這種情況是否發生了變化？然後還考慮到您因擬議合併而支付的留任獎金？然後你能不能給我們一些關於我們應該考慮的留任獎金對成本結構影響的看法？

Hey, Cathy, it's Scott. Since our last discussion on the projected sub-$0.06 CASM ex, labor rates have continued to move up. The labor rate moves are going to make it difficult for us to achieve that level of CASM ex. I think the industry is seeing it, but we may be a little bit outsized on the impact of that. So I think, look, with those moves, we're probably looking at a low 6 CASM number to be a little bit of a reasonable estimate for run rate CASM ex today. With 2019 CASM ex of around 5.55, we're probably looking at around 45 to, call it, say, 65 points of cost pressure. So I think the next sort of logical question becomes, how does that affect sort of a return to pre-COVID margin levels? And so to do that, we need additional revenue to offset the inflationary cost pressures. And that's where nonticket comes in. We're about $11 higher in Q1 on nonticket than in 2019, and that number will likely grow throughout the year. And we think there's a good portion of that increase that's sticky, that will remain even if fares decline. So if we keep say 75% of that increase that's, let's say, $8 a passenger. And $8 a passenger of nonticket offsets about 65 points of CASM inflation. So if fuel and fares return to sort of 2019 equilibrium and we would have been similar, if not slightly improved margins from pre-COVID period.

嘿，凱茜，我是斯科特。自從我們上次討論預計低於 0.06 美元的 CASM ex 後，勞動力價格繼續上漲。勞動力價格變動將使我們難以達到 CASM ex 的水平。我認為這個行業正在看到它，但我們可能對它的影響有點過分。所以我認為，看，通過這些舉措，我們可能會看到較低的 6 CASM 數字是對今天 CASM ex 運行率的合理估計。 2019 年 CASM ex 約為 5.55，我們可能正在考慮 45 至 65 點的成本壓力。所以我認為下一個合乎邏輯的問題變成了，這對恢復到 COVID 之前的保證金水平有何影響？為此，我們需要額外的收入來抵消通脹成本壓力。這就是 nonticket 的用武之地。我們在第一季度的 nonticket 比 2019 年高出約 11 美元，而且這個數字可能會在全年增長。而且我們認為這種增長中有很大一部分是粘性的，即使票價下降，這種增長仍然存在。因此，如果我們繼續說增加的 75%，那就是每位乘客 8 美元。每位乘客 8 美元的非機票抵消了大約 65 個 CASM 通脹點。因此，如果燃油和票價恢復到 2019 年的平衡狀態，我們的利潤率就會與疫情前的時期相似，甚至略有提高。

So while we had always hoped that nonticket increases were going to work and be a bit margin accretive for us, the pandemic has taken its toll on unit cost. But the good news is that we're at least looking at a real path to a return to pre-COVID margin levels. And obviously, we're going to do everything we can to minimize unit cost inflation. But the good news, too, is that the absolute CASM ex gap is growing versus the industry. And if that provides any platform for improved fare levels, then the margin expansion idea becomes a real possibility.

因此，儘管我們一直希望非票價上漲能夠奏效並為我們帶來一點利潤增長，但大流行已經對單位成本造成了影響。但好消息是，我們至少正在尋找一條真正恢復到 COVID 之前的利潤率水平的途徑。顯然，我們將盡一切努力將單位成本通脹降至最低。但好消息也是，與行業相比，絕對 CASM ex 差距正在擴大。如果這為提高票價水平提供了任何平台，那麼利潤率擴張的想法就成為現實。

That's really helpful. And then maybe just for my second, a follow-up to Savi's question on the comments in your capacity plan. So you noted earlier in the call, your attrition had picked up, but you were having success in hiring. I guess were you hiring ahead of plans such you can backfill that elevated attrition?

這真的很有幫助。然後也許只是我的第二個問題，Savi 關於您容量計劃中的評論的問題的後續行動。因此，您在電話會議的早些時候指出，您的減員有所增加，但您在招聘方面取得了成功。我猜你是不是提前計劃招聘，這樣你就可以回補增加的流失率？

And then I guess, even if that's true, should there be a training delay getting those new pilots filling vacant spots? Just trying to think through the moving pieces of the hiring picture just to hit that year-end utilization target.

然後我想，即使這是真的，讓那些新飛行員填補空缺職位是否應該有培訓延遲？只是想通過招聘畫面的動人部分來達到年終利用率目標。

Sure, Cathy. It's Ted. What you said there at the end is exactly correct. So we saw the issues associated with increased attrition and particularly at the pilot ranks and flight attendant ranks, and we made adjustments to it, and those adjustments worked. So you're right in assuming that it does create a lag. There is incremental training that we have to do to get things going. There's incremental things that we have to add. We need more trainers. We need more simulators, we needed more flight training devices. We needed to do all those things, and we did them earlier on this year, which meant that we had appropriately adapted.

當然，凱茜。是泰德。你最後說的完全正確。因此，我們看到了與減員增加相關的問題，特別是在飛行員和空乘人員隊伍中，我們對其進行了調整，這些調整奏效了。所以你假設它確實會產生滯後是正確的。為了讓事情順利進行，我們必須進行增量培訓。我們必須添加一些增量的東西。我們需要更多的教練。我們需要更多的模擬器，我們需要更多的飛行訓練設備。我們需要做所有這些事情，我們在今年早些時候做了這些事情，這意味著我們已經進行了適當的調整。

And while attrition is at elevated levels, it has leveled off. And we're seeing a much more stable number and in fact, slight declines in attrition. -- over the course of the first and second quarter here in this year. So our adjustments to that worked.

雖然流失率處於較高水平，但它已經趨於平穩。而且我們看到了一個更加穩定的數字，事實上，減員略有下降。 - 在今年第一季度和第二季度的過程中。所以我們對此的調整奏效了。

It's disappointing, obviously. We want to keep everyone here and make sure we retain and there are ways for us to tackle that over the long term. But in the meantime, we fixed the schoolhouse in a way that we were comfortable that we've adapted to the system. So again, supply constraint for us heading into the summer had nothing to do with our ability to fly our admittedly changed schedule from last summer because of what we saw from a staffing issue. We were well on track to hit those numbers. It's more about making sure that we created in a Florida buffer.

很明顯，這很令人失望。我們希望讓每個人都留在這裡，並確保我們留住，並且有辦法讓我們長期解決這個問題。但與此同時，我們以一種我們已經適應了系統的方式來修復校舍。再說一次，由於我們從人員配置問題中看到的，我們進入夏季的供應限制與我們從去年夏天開始公認改變的時間表的飛行能力無關。我們很可能達到這些數字。更重要的是確保我們在佛羅里達緩衝區中創建。

Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham from MKM Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just going back to the NEA for a second. Even when you move forward with Frontier, it seems like you're likely to be against the NEA regardless. So can you just speak to your biggest concern with that alliance? And if there were additional access to slots in New York, would that be something that you're interested in just given like the cost of inflation we're seeing at airports? And just how you price your product in general? Any help would be great.

只是回到NEA一秒鐘。即使您與 Frontier 一起前進，您似乎也可能無論如何都會反對 NEA。那麼你能談談你對這個聯盟最關心的問題嗎？如果在紐約有額外的插槽，您是否會感興趣，就像我們在機場看到的通貨膨脹成本一樣？以及您如何為您的產品定價？任何幫助都會很棒。

Sure. So I have made a number of comments on the NEA, why we view it as anticompetitive. We've been a public -- an opposition to that. There is a pending lawsuit between the DOJ and JetBlue and American on that issue. As I said earlier, it's entirely likely that we may be a witness to that. So I hesitate to comment more than what I've already said.

當然。所以我對 NEA 發表了一些評論，為什麼我們認為它是反競爭的。我們一直是公眾——反對這一點。美國司法部與捷藍航空和美國航空之間在該問題上存在未決訴訟。正如我之前所說，我們完全有可能見證這一點。因此，我不願發表比我已經說過的更多的評論。

It's fair to say that the alliance itself is more than just a traditional code share. There are a number of elements in it that actually make it more akin to a joint venture, and we wanted to make sure or in fact, even a merger. And we wanted to make sure that it received the adequate attention, and I believe the DOJ is now doing that.

公平地說，聯盟本身不僅僅是傳統的代碼共享。其中有許多元素實際上使它更類似於合資企業，我們希望確保或實際上甚至是合併。我們希望確保它得到足夠的關注，我相信司法部現在正在這樣做。

To the extent, however, that there are divestitures in slot-controlled or restricted airports, we're always going to be in interest in that. In fact, we've seen a -- as you've seen of us late, we've been very public about our desire to take over the surrendered positions in Newark by Southwest despite the DOT's initial approach to that, which we had to, in fact, start a litigation on, and we won, and we believe those positions will be eventually awarded to a low-cost carrier, and we believe we're the right one.

然而，就航班時刻控製或限制機場的剝離而言，我們總是會對此感興趣。事實上，我們已經看到 - 正如你最近看到的那樣，我們一直非常公開地表示我們希望接管西南紐瓦克投降的職位，儘管 DOT 最初採取了這種做法，我們不得不這樣做，事實上，提起訴訟，我們贏了，我們相信這些職位最終將授予一家低成本航空公司，我們相信我們是正確的。

So I think it's been pretty clear that in any event, no matter what the reason or outcome is, if there are available positions in constrained airports, we believe Spirit should be the #1 place to go.

所以我認為很明顯，無論如何，無論原因或結果是什麼，如果在受限機場有空缺職位，我們認為 Spirit 應該是排名第一的去處。

Okay. Great. And just on the pilots, I mean, I know your contracts are up until next year, but the industry is, I mean, as everyone knows, is (inaudible) through another reset and I realize you said you're comfortable with your pilot pool right now. But when we think about the long-term implications of just the shortage, why shouldn't we just assume that there's compression on pay rates over the long term? Like why wouldn't Spirit be closer to the network carriers over the long term than that? I mean, again, the appeal seems to be that you could grow very quickly with Spirit and maybe that's not necessarily the case in the near term as it used to be. So any additional color? I'm not asking you to negotiate in public. But any additional color, I think, could be help that I appreciate that.

好的。偉大的。就飛行員而言，我的意思是，我知道你們的合同要到明年才到期，但我的意思是，眾所周知，這個行業正在（聽不清）通過另一次重置，我意識到你說你對你的飛行員感到滿意現在游泳池。但是，當我們考慮到短缺的長期影響時，為什麼我們不應該假設長期工資率會受到壓縮？就像從長遠來看，為什麼 Spirit 不會更接近網絡運營商？我的意思是，再一次，吸引力似乎在於你可以與 Spirit 一起快速成長，也許在短期內不一定像過去那樣。那麼有什麼額外的顏色嗎？我不是要你公開談判。但我認為，任何額外的顏色都可以幫助我理解這一點。

Yes. So look, history would tell you that there is a way that pilot contracts have shaken out over time. And the argument that you make is that given where we are from a pilot demand perspective and all of that, that perhaps that, that could change versus what history would tell you.

是的。所以看，歷史會告訴你，隨著時間的推移，試點合同有一種方式已經發生了變化。你提出的論點是，從試點需求的角度來看，考慮到我們所處的位置以及所有這些，也許這可能會改變，而不是歷史會告訴你的。

And the answer is I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily lead to that conclusion. But I can tell you this, I've heard a few airlines, most notably United Airlines, commenting on what they believe to be the current supply of pilots in the marketplace and the demand for pilots in the marketplace, and there being a significant disconnect between the supply of pilots in the marketplace and the demand for pilots. In fact, I heard numbers like 5,000 pilots a year and demand for 13-or-so thousand pilots a year.

答案是我不知道。我不一定會得出這個結論。但我可以告訴你，我聽說有幾家航空公司，尤其是聯合航空公司，評論了他們認為目前市場上飛行員的供應和市場上對飛行員的需求，並且存在明顯的脫節市場上飛行員的供給和飛行員的需求之間。事實上，我聽說每年有 5,000 名飛行員，而每年需要 13 千名左右的飛行員。

And I look back at the data on how many pilots actually received ATP licenses over the last 10 years. And for a majority of those years, the number was actually closer to 10,000 pilots a year. Now admittedly, post the implementation of FAR 117, there was a dip because they did put in place a longer training period, and I think that forced pilots to get more experience before they can apply for their license. But post that dip, the lines were all trending up. There were more people applying to get private licenses, more people applying to get instructor licenses and more people asking for and being awarded ATP licenses. That line getting closer and closer to the historical average of closer to 10,000 pilots a year.

我回顧了過去 10 年有多少飛行員實際獲得了 ATP 執照的數據。在這些年的大部分時間裡，這個數字實際上接近每年 10,000 名飛行員。現在不可否認，在 FAR 117 實施後，由於他們確實實施了更長的培訓期，因此出現了下滑，我認為這迫使飛行員在申請執照之前獲得更多經驗。但是在那次下跌之後，這些線都呈上升趨勢。申請獲得私人執照的人越來越多，申請獲得講師執照的人越來越多，申請並獲得 ATP 執照的人越來越多。這條線越來越接近每年接近 10,000 名飛行員的歷史平均水平。

Unfortunately, the COVID pandemic interrupted that again, and it did flatten off, mostly because none of us were hiring pilots in 2020. So now there is demand again, and I think those lines all trending in that direction, give us good confidence that macroeconomics work. This is a good profession. People who want to be pilots are now coming back to the world saying I want to be pilots. And we anticipate that you could interpret that data to suggest that actually, once we achieve more normalized rates, it will probably be closer to what you've experienced in the past, which might be like 10,000-or-more pilots a year.

不幸的是，COVID 大流行再次打斷了這一點，它確實趨於平緩，主要是因為我們都沒有在 2020 年招聘飛行員。所以現在再次有需求，我認為這些趨勢都朝著這個方向發展，讓我們對宏觀經濟學充滿信心工作。這是一個很好的職業。想成為飛行員的人現在回到這個世界上說我想成為飛行員。我們預計您可以將這些數據解釋為實際上，一旦我們實現更標準化的費率，它可能會更接近您過去所經歷的，這可能是每年 10,000 或更多的飛行員。

And so supply and demand will work itself out over that period of time, and that will help inform how pilot rate and compression or the lack thereof might be impacted by the business broadly speaking of ours. But I remind you that we still maintain a unit cost advantage no matter what. Our pilots, our flight attendants, our ground personnel, our dispatchers, our technicians, all of us, our overhead are more efficient than they are at the majors because we push more units, more seats per aircraft. And I think that's important to remember.

因此，供需將在這段時間內自行解決，這將有助於告知試點率和壓縮或缺乏這些可能會如何受到廣義上我們的業務的影響。但我提醒您，無論如何，我們仍然保持單位成本優勢。我們的飛行員、空乘人員、地勤人員、調度員、技術人員，我們所有人，我們的開銷比他們在專業上的效率更高，因為我們推動了更多的單位，每架飛機更多的座位。我認為記住這一點很重要。

And the second point is to the extent that you're right, and there is compression in pay, that happens at the lowest end as well, which is where regional pilots today are getting paid. And that benefit of that arbitrage that the majors enjoy today from a B scale perspective will be eliminated under that scenario, which would be very cost prohibitive to the majors. So I guess there's probably a number of inputs to consider before you jump to conclusions.

第二點是在一定程度上你是對的，並且薪酬受到壓縮，這也發生在最低端，這就是今天的地區飛行員獲得報酬的地方。在這種情況下，大公司今天從 B 規模的角度享受的套利收益將被消除，這對大公司來說成本非常高。所以我想在你下結論之前可能需要考慮一些輸入。

The next question comes from the line of Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

I have two here. I guess one to Ted and Matt, as it relates to your biggest airplanes, the A321neos, has -- given the fact that I -- what are we talking about? 229 or 239 seats, and the fact that with some of the irregular operations and the reaccommodation costs, the fact is these are expensive airplanes. And when you think about sort of off-peak scheduling and the like, any thoughts on possibly sort of rethinking the mix? And focusing on sort of maybe A320neos as being the right airplane?

我這裡有兩個。我想 Ted 和馬特的一個，因為它與你們最大的飛機 A321neos 相關，考慮到我 - 我們在說什麼？ 229 或 239 個座位，加上一些不正常的運營和重新安置費用，這些都是昂貴的飛機。當您考慮非高峰時間安排等時，是否有可能重新考慮組合？並專注於 A320neos 是否是合適的飛機？

I'm just curious with -- given the disruption and some of the issues that you faced is if the thinking is as enticing as these airplanes are with that many seats and what it does on a unit cost basis that maybe the happy medium for Spirit is to kind of focus on a core A320 sort of neo-type airplane. I'm just thinking about how things have evolved? And how much that airplane actually features in your fleet going forward?

我只是好奇——考慮到你所面臨的中斷和一些問題，這種想法是否像這些飛機一樣誘人，有這麼多座位，以及它在單位成本基礎上的作用，這可能是 Spirit 的快樂媒介是一種專注於核心 A320 類型的新型飛機。我只是在想事情是如何演變的？未來，這架飛機在您的機隊中的實際功能有多少？

Mike, it's Ted. I'll start, and then I'll let Matt add any comments he'd like as it relates to how he sees evolving the network. But the reason we love that airplane is because there's just tons of demand right now. There's a ton of demand for low-fare travel. There's never been a question, in our mind at least, that there's untapped and considerable demand for low-fare travel. And if anything, the last 6 months have reinforced that. And over the course of pandemic, of course, that was true that low-fare leisure travel was the most resilient part.

邁克，是泰德。我會開始，然後我會讓 Matt 添加他想要的任何評論，因為這與他如何看待網絡發展有關。但我們喜歡這架飛機的原因是因為現在有大量的需求。對低價旅行的需求很大。至少在我們看來，從來沒有一個問題是對低價旅行的需求尚未開發且相當大。如果有的話，過去 6 個月強化了這一點。當然，在大流行期間，低價休閒旅行確實是最具彈性的部分。

So that airplane is critical, quite frankly, in large markets where there is facility constraint on either side. You can add capacity in a place like New York City, absent us, of course, securing additional slots and which we're hopeful we can do at any time is to add more seats to the airplane. It just becomes more efficient. And there is -- we're underflying the demand in that market today, no matter what we do.

因此，坦率地說，這架飛機在任何一方都存在設施限制的大型市場中至關重要。您可以在像紐約市這樣的地方增加容量，當然，我們不在，確保額外的插槽，我們希望我們可以隨時為飛機增加更多座位。它只會變得更有效率。還有 - 無論我們做什麼，我們今天都在滿足該市場的需求。

Now the core of our airline is the 320. It's going to be -- it's always going to be the bigger part of the fleet. But the 321neo is a game changer. That's going to be an extremely powerful airplane with more range, better carbon footprint, and we're going to be able to put more seats on the 321neo version than we have on our 321ceo. So today, we operate the 321ceo with 228 seats. Because of the door configuration on the 321neo, we actually can add more seats to it without changing the overall comfort level or pitch. So it's going to be a better airplane. It's going to be more efficient. And we're really excited about what it's going to do. So Matt, anything you want to add to that?

現在我們航空公司的核心是 320。它將成為 - 它始終將成為機隊中更大的一部分。但 321neo 改變了遊戲規則。這將是一架極其強大的飛機，航程更遠，碳足跡更好，而且我們將能夠在 321neo 版本上放置比 321ceo 更多的座位。所以今天，我們運營的 321ceo 擁有 228 個座位。由於 321neo 的車門配置，我們實際上可以在不改變整體舒適度或音高的情況下為其添加更多座椅。所以這將是一架更好的飛機。它會更有效率。我們對它將會做什麼感到非常興奮。那麼，馬特，你想補充什麼嗎？

I would only add, Mike, that when we do have some kind of small disruption, we've been dealing with this. We've had the 321 in the fleet for a long time. So our airports are very well prepared for -- if we do have to do a downgrade of some sort to a 320 from a 321, we have procedures in place. Everything is pretty normal there for us.

邁克，我只想補充一點，當我們確實遇到某種小的干擾時，我們一直在處理這個問題。我們在機隊中使用 321 已有很長時間了。因此，我們的機場已經做好了充分的準備——如果我們確實必須從 321 降級到 320，我們有適當的程序。對我們來說，那裡的一切都很正常。

If we do have a larger, say, weather event, the size of the aircraft sort of doesn't matter, like a hurricane or something is coming, then we're going to end up doing a -- we'll put an operational procedure in place anyway that will likely take some cancels and then put the airline back together in a day or 2. So that's not -- the size of the aircraft isn't going to matter too much in those events as well.

如果我們確實有一個更大的天氣事件，那麼飛機的大小並不重要，比如颶風或即將到來的事情，那麼我們最終會做一個——我們會進行操作無論如何，程序到位，可能需要一些取消，然後在一兩天內將航空公司重新組合在一起。所以這不是 - 飛機的大小在這些事件中也不會太重要。

Okay. That's a good answer. And then just I wanted to just go back to on some of the comments that you guys made in the slide deck, which is helpful that you put that out. Just with respect to the JetBlue effect and I think the concerns that you have with that, the point there is that it is in the public record, whether it's DOJ documents recently with the NEA and even some of the DOT stuff where, in the past, JetBlue has been anointed as an industry maverick, right? A disruptor, if you will.

好的。這是一個很好的答案。然後我只想回到你們在幻燈片中發表的一些評論，這對你們發表這些評論很有幫助。就捷藍航空效應而言，我認為您對此的擔憂，關鍵在於它在公共記錄中，無論是最近與 NEA 的 DOJ 文件，甚至是過去的一些 DOT 文件, JetBlue 被指定為行業特立獨行者，對吧？一個破壞者，如果你願意的話。

And so to the point that they've called out some of the benefits of this JetBlue effect or the fact that JetBlue has had a difference in markets, what -- like with respect to your analysis versus, say, the conclusions that the DOJ and DOT have arrived at with respect to JetBlue, where do you differ? Because you do say that you talk about overstating the impact of JetBlue on legacy carriers. But there are a lot of passenger segments that they participate in that you guys don't. I know you mentioned small medium enterprises or SMBs of having some of that business. But as we move sort of further up the food chain, there are areas where JetBlue plays and can have a meaningful effect on the big guys where you don't even play in that space. So I'm just -- I'm curious, and I realize it probably has to go off call, but maybe you have some numbers or any color on that.

因此，他們已經提到了捷藍航空效應的一些好處，或者捷藍航空在市場上存在差異這一事實，比如關於你的分析與美國司法部和DOT就JetBlue到了，你們有什麼不同？因為您確實說過您誇大了捷藍航空對傳統航空公司的影響。但是有很多他們參與的乘客細分，你們沒有。我知道您提到了擁有部分業務的中小型企業或中小型企業。但隨著我們向食物鏈的上游移動，捷藍航空在某些領域發揮作用，並且可以對你甚至不在那個領域發揮作用的大個子產生有意義的影響。所以我只是 - 我很好奇，我意識到它可能必須停止通話，但也許你有一些數字或任何顏色。

Sure. So look, I won't bore you with all the analysis that was done because there was extensive analysis, and then we hired independent economists to dig into it for us. As I referenced in my comments and the summary is that a lot of their analysis has quite a few flaws in it. The JetBlue, first of all, they use their -- the coverage period at deriving the JetBlue effect, they're going back into the earliest part of the last decade as their starting point, which was a completely different industry than exists today.

當然。所以看，我不會對所做的所有分析感到厭煩，因為進行了廣泛的分析，然後我們聘請了獨立經濟學家為我們深入研究。正如我在評論和總結中提到的那樣，他們的很多分析都存在不少缺陷。捷藍，首先，他們使用他們的 - 得出捷藍效應的覆蓋期，他們將回到過去十年的最早部分作為他們的起點，這是一個與今天完全不同的行業。

And while you are acknowledging that in markets where JetBlue competes with a legacy carrier, they have a lower cost structure than that legacy carrier and perhaps they have a lower fare structure as well, and they can have an impact. What we're talking about is what happens versus the ULCC effect when they compete with legacy carriers or, quite frankly, with JetBlue. And the allegation that the JetBlue effect would somehow be larger than the effect that we have is the comparison point because remember, their strategy is to remove us as a ULCC and take seats out of the market. And it's our assertion that our effect is significantly larger. So that's really what we're talking about.

儘管您承認在捷藍航空與傳統航空公司競爭的市場中，它們的成本結構比傳統航空公司更低，而且可能他們的票價結構也更低，它們可能會產生影響。我們正在談論的是當他們與傳統運營商競爭時，或者坦率地說，與 JetBlue 競爭時，與 ULCC 效應相比會發生什麼。 JetBlue 效應會以某種方式大於我們的效應的指控是比較點，因為請記住，他們的策略是將我們作為 ULCC 移除並從市場上搶走席位。我們斷言我們的影響要大得多。所以這就是我們正在談論的。

Next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

The second half profit guide, we can obviously back into some revenue assumptions there. But what's the fuel and ex-fuel CASM at the root of that guide?

下半年利潤指引，我們顯然可以回到一些收入假設那裡。但是，該指南的根源是什麼燃料和前燃料 CASM？

Well, we gave -- Jamie, this is Scott, we gave op expenses and capacity assumptions. So we aren't giving a full CASM ex guide. But I think you can sort of do the math that sort of gets us to -- we pulled some capacity out in the second quarter and will likely be underflying a little bit in the third. So I think what you're going to see is a bit of a CASM escalator in the second and third, and then we'll benefit from a return to mostly pre-COVID utilization in the fourth, and then back to sort of, I'll call it, low 6s in the first and second of next year. So that's sort of linear extrapolation probably works there.

好吧，我們給出了——傑米，這是斯科特，我們給出了運營費用和容量假設。所以我們沒有提供完整的 CASM ex 指南。但我認為你可以做一些讓我們明白的數學——我們在第二季度撤出了一些產能，並且在第三季度可能會有所下降。所以我認為你會在第二和第三次看到有點像 CASM 自動扶梯，然後我們將受益於第四次恢復到 COVID 之前的利用率，然後回到某種程度，我會在明年的第一年和第二年稱之為低 6 分。所以這可能是一種線性外推。

Sure. And then on the merger, and maybe this is sort of the direction that Duane was going earlier in the call, but if we set the Northeast Alliance aside and ignore the fact that there's a Frontier offer on the table, and I realize those are just for illustrative purposes, and those are big caveats, but did your review of Spirit JetBlue raise any meaningful red flags when viewed through the more typical lenses that Justice has used for previous deals? So

當然。然後是合併，也許這就是杜安早些時候在電話會議中的方向，但如果我們把東北聯盟放在一邊，忽略擺在桌面上的前沿報價這一事實，我意識到那些只是出於說明目的，這些都是很大的警告，但是當通過正義在以前的交易中使用的更典型的鏡頭觀察時，你對 Spirit JetBlue 的評論是否引發了任何有意義的危險信號？所以

if you didn't have an argument, if the NEA wasn't an issue and if there was no Frontier offer on the table, again, just an illustrative question, I'm not saying that's where we're going to end up, but were there other red flags when you just kind of analyzed it when your lawyers analyzed it the way that Justice ordinarily has looked at mergers at least in the past?

如果您沒有爭論，如果 NEA 不是問題，並且如果桌面上沒有 Frontier 報價，那麼這只是一個說明性問題，我並不是說這就是我們要結束的地方，但是，當您的律師以大法官通常至少在過去看待合併的方式進行分析時，您是否還有其他危險信號？

Sure, Jamie, thanks. And the answer to the question is yes. So even setting -- that's what I'm trying to make clear in both the prepared and my answer to Duane, setting aside the NEA, which we view as problematic, very problematic. Remember that at its core, this is a higher-fare, higher-cost airline buying a lower-fare, lower-cost airline, removing capacity and raising fares.

當然，傑米，謝謝。這個問題的答案是肯定的。所以即使設置 - 這就是我在準備好的和我對 Duane 的回答中試圖闡明的內容，將 NEA 放在一邊，我們認為這是有問題的，非常有問題的。請記住，從本質上講，這是一家高票價、高成本的航空公司購買一家低票價、低成本的航空公司，取消運力並提高票價。

And given this administration and this DOJ, which has a new approach, admittedly than perhaps prior administrations, they've made it clear that their #1 objective is to enhance competition. So we view that as problematic.

鑑於本屆政府和司法部採用了一種新的方法，誠然，他們可能比以前的政府更清楚，他們已經明確表示，他們的第一目標是加強競爭。所以我們認為這是有問題的。

By the way, also, they made it clear that traditional approaches to resolving issues on mergers such as divestitures will not be considered. So yes, there were a number of red flags across it which is why we had so much concern and why when we went back to JetBlue on April 25, we had such a strong covenant that we believe we needed for our shareholders. Remember, there's tremendous risk throughout the course of this regulatory process, and who bears that risk? The Spirit shareholder and we were not comfortable with that risk.

順便說一句，他們還明確表示，將不考慮解決資產剝離等合併問題的傳統方法。所以，是的，它上面有許多危險信號，這就是為什麼我們如此擔心以及為什麼當我們在 4 月 25 日回到捷藍航空時，我們有一個如此強大的契約，以至於我們認為我們需要我們的股東。請記住，在整個監管過程中都存在巨大的風險，而誰承擔了這種風險？ Spirit 股東和我們對這種風險感到不舒服。

Our next question comes from the line of Helane Becker from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

This is Tom on for Helane. Just another quick question on the merger, did you, as part of your analysis in your review, did you -- do you anticipate a lot of customers staying with the combined entity if JetBlue did acquire you and the deal was approved? Did you think those customers would be -- the typical Spirit customers will be more likely to pivot to other -- the pivot is only going to lead you to another low-cost carrier in some country?

這是湯姆在為海倫服務。關於合併的另一個快速問題，作為您在評論中分析的一部分，您是否 - 如果 JetBlue 確實收購了您並且交易獲得批准，您是否預計會有很多客戶留在合併後的實體中？您是否認為這些客戶會——典型的 Spirit 客戶更有可能轉向其他客戶——這種轉向只會將你帶到某個國家的另一家低成本航空公司？

Well, I think what we've learned over the years and what we've talked about, the very core of our airline and the core of our product is that people like low fares. And our expansion and our growth over the last decade, remember, we've grown five or sixfold over that period of time is predicated on maintaining a low fare structure and offering alternative stimulated activity. And JetBlue offers their product, which is a different product from ours, but it is a higher fare product. And so simple economics would assume that less people will travel. And so I don't believe that they're -- I mean, again, travelers that travel on Spirit oftentimes travel on United or American or JetBlue or Alaska or whatever. They may travel on all the airlines, it's not about specific people. It's about their -- the reason that they're traveling which, again, is leisure and who's paying for it which again, is out of your own pocket. And where you're going? Are you going to leisure destinations? Are you going to visit friends and relatives? Those types of things affect your buying decision. So I think what happens is less people travel.

嗯，我認為我們這些年來學到的東西和我們談論的東西，我們航空公司的核心和我們產品的核心是人們喜歡低票價。我們在過去十年的擴張和增長，請記住，我們在這段時間裡增長了五六倍，這是基於維持低票價結構和提供替代刺激活動。 JetBlue 提供他們的產品，這與我們的產品不同，但價格更高。如此簡單的經濟學會假設更少的人會去旅行。所以我不相信他們是——我的意思是，再次，乘坐 Spirit 旅行的旅行者經常乘坐聯合航空、美國航空、捷藍航空或阿拉斯加航空或其他任何方式。他們可能乘坐所有航空公司的航班，而不是針對特定的人。這是關於他們的——他們旅行的原因，這又是休閒，誰在為此買單，這又是你自己掏腰包的原因。你要去哪裡？你要去休閒勝地嗎？你要去拜訪朋友和親戚嗎？這些類型的事情會影響您的購買決定。所以我認為發生的事情是更少的人旅行。

And if I could squeeze one more in. Would you mind just providing any color on some of the trends you've seen in customer demand since President's Day? Maybe anything that surprised you? Or any data on like maybe age demographics?

如果我可以再擠一個。你介意就總統日以來你在客戶需求中看到的一些趨勢提供任何顏色嗎？也許有什麼讓你感到驚訝的事情？或者關於年齡人口統計數據的任何數據？

Yes, this is Matt. So yes, demand has really come on strong. It was almost like a light switch was flipped as we went through February. And we saw close in demand. We saw demand starting to build further out. It was definitely -- it's one of those things where it becomes a challenge for the revenue management team because they're always tracking trends or tracking short-term trends, medium-term trends and then longer trends as well. And when things change, either up or down, you have to make adjustments quickly to those. So we adapted. We adjusted quickly to that, very comfortable with the demand trends that we're seeing today.

是的，這是馬特。所以，是的，需求真的很強勁。當我們度過二月時，這幾乎就像一個電燈開關被翻轉了。我們看到需求量很大。我們看到需求開始進一步擴大。絕對是——這對收入管理團隊來說是一個挑戰，因為他們總是在跟踪趨勢或跟踪短期趨勢、中期趨勢，然後是長期趨勢。當事情發生變化時，無論是向上還是向下，你都必須迅速做出調整。所以我們適應了。我們迅速適應了這一點，對我們今天看到的需求趨勢非常滿意。

What's been great along the way here is that our nonticket production continues to improve and continues to really, quite frankly, get to a place that we knew we would get to, but we got there faster than we had anticipated. Part of that is just some of the things that we've changed internally from processes and analytics just came online, and the learning curve on that was a lot quicker than what we had anticipated, which is great news for revenue production. So that's it. It also tells us that the nonticket production is extremely sticky because a lot of it's been, yes, demand is stronger, but it's also been improving based on the processes and analytics that we put in place, so that's been great.

一路走來最棒的一點是，我們的非門票生產繼續改善，並且坦率地說，我們繼續到達一個我們知道我們會到達的地方，但我們到達那裡的速度比我們預期的要快。其中一部分只是我們從流程和分析剛剛上線的內部改變的一些事情，並且學習曲線比我們預期的要快得多，這對於創收來說是個好消息。就是這樣了。它還告訴我們，非門票生產非常具有粘性，因為其中很多，是的，需求更加強勁，但根據我們實施的流程和分析，它也在不斷改進，所以這很棒。

And then one thing also I'd like to add just about some of the regions that we have in the network today is that the international, some of our international flying to Central and South America has been a bit depressed compared to where it has been normally, so the results there are having somewhat -- I don't want to over-rotate on it, but it's definitely having something of a revenue panel to be a drag on production. We expect that to go away as we move through the summer and get into the more peak periods. But what we've seen in the last few months has been a little bit under in terms of production for some of the Central and South America parts of our network.

然後還有一件事我想補充一下我們今天在網絡中的一些地區是國際，我們飛往中美洲和南美洲的一些國際航班與過去相比有點沮喪通常情況下，所以結果有點——我不想過度旋轉它，但它肯定有一些收入面板會拖累生產。我們預計隨著我們進入夏季並進入更多的高峰期，這種情況會消失。但是我們在過去幾個月看到的情況在我們網絡的一些中美洲和南美洲部分的生產方面有所下降。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan McKenzie from Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

Prior to the merger announcement, the messaging, Scott and CASM ex of sub-6 was really clear. And I hear you today on low 6s in the first half of '23. Have you started to look at what emerged CASM ex outlook might look like with Frontier? Is low 6 CASM ex still reasonable? Or possibly something higher?

在宣布合併之前，sub-6 的消息、Scott 和 CASM ex 非常明確。我今天聽到你在 23 年上半年的低 6 分。您是否開始關注 Frontier 出現的 CASM ex 前景可能會是什麼樣子？低 6 CASM ex 仍然合理嗎？或者可能更高的東西？

Yes. We haven't talked about any sort of combined unit revenue -- or sorry, unit cost translation. But I mean I think you can talk about some of the things that Frontier and Spirit do today. And then we know there's cost synergies in place. So I think you could extrapolate from the inputs, but we haven't given a formal view on what the combined unit costs would look like.

是的。我們還沒有談到任何形式的綜合單位收入——或者抱歉，單位成本轉換。但我的意思是我認為你可以談談 Frontier 和 Spirit 今天所做的一些事情。然後我們知道存在成本協同效應。所以我認為你可以從輸入中推斷出來，但我們還沒有對綜合單位成本的樣子給出正式的看法。

I think it's fair to say, Dan, that we've been public about it. We expect there to be around $100 million of cost synergies between the business. And those are direct ways that the combined business can offset the pressures that the industry is seeing, and they're unique compared to what the rest of the industry has available to it in its toolkit. So there's nothing else that would create pressure to combine 2 ULCCs. If anything, there are ways to create efficiency. And that's, I think, that's the best way to think about it.

我認為公平地說，丹，我們已經公開了這件事。我們預計業務之間將產生約 1 億美元的成本協同效應。這些是合併後的業務可以抵消行業所面臨壓力的直接方式，與行業其他部門在其工具包中可用的相比，它們是獨一無二的。因此，沒有其他東西會產生合併 2 個 ULCC 的壓力。如果有的話，有辦法創造效率。這就是，我認為，這是思考它的最佳方式。

I see. Matt, going back to the script, more upside on the ancillary side of the business to come. Can you elaborate on that? And related to this, another ULCC last night concluded that premium revenue is a really good way to go. And is that something that you're taking a second look at? Or willing to take another look at?

我懂了。馬特，回到劇本，未來業務的輔助方面會有更多的好處。你能詳細說明一下嗎？與此相關，昨晚另一家 ULCC 得出結論，保費收入是一個非常好的方法。那是你要重新審視的東西嗎？還是願意再看看？

Sure. So I can start with the second piece in terms of premium revenue on board. So we do have our big front seat product. And it's something that we've had for a long time as part of our product. And since we've been a ULCC, it's been there on the aircraft. And it's something that we know that customers want. That's why we still have it on the aircraft. We go through frequent reviews to make sure that it's still the right decision when we think about total profitability because if we didn't have that product on board, we'd have a couple of more seats on the aircraft, which can drive cost -- unit cost benefit, and it depends on how you view the revenue production on the aircraft.

當然。所以我可以從船上保費收入的第二部分開始。所以我們確實有我們的大前座產品。這是我們長期以來一直作為我們產品的一部分的東西。自從我們成為 ULCC 以來，它一直在飛機上。這是我們知道客戶想要的東西。這就是為什麼我們仍然在飛機上使用它的原因。我們經常進行審查，以確保在考慮總體盈利能力時它仍然是正確的決定，因為如果我們沒有該產品，我們將在飛機上增加幾個座位，這可能會增加成本 - - 單位成本效益，這取決於您如何看待飛機上的收入。

Obviously, we have the product on the aircraft because we like it. We think it's the right thing for us to do. And as long as we do our job properly from a revenue management perspective, it definitely is accretive to the bottom line, which is why the product is on the aircraft overall.

顯然，我們將產品放在飛機上是因為我們喜歡它。我們認為這對我們來說是正確的。只要我們從收入管理的角度正確地完成我們的工作，它肯定會增加利潤，這就是產品在整個飛機上的原因。

In terms of nonticket and where we think there's more to come, we've talked about this for a little while, and we're starting to see traction happen now with our sort of relaunched revamped loyalty program, our partnership with our co-branded credit card partner, Bank of America and a couple of other partners that we have there is working very well. We're starting to see traction take place there on our new program, so we think there's benefits there.

在非票務方面以及我們認為還有更多的地方，我們已經討論了一段時間，我們現在開始看到牽引力發生在我們重新啟動的改進忠誠度計劃，我們與我們的聯合品牌合作信用卡合作夥伴、美國銀行和我們在那裡的其他幾個合作夥伴運作良好。我們開始看到我們的新計劃在那裡產生了吸引力，所以我們認為那裡有好處。

And we also know that as we just continue to get better and better at our ability to analyze the data and think more real time, we're just getting continuously better at our revenue management processes and our merchandising of the product just continues to improve online. So that's where we have the confidence to see it. And what we're seeing happen in the second quarter gives us a lot of confidence. We're going to beat the record we just set in Q1, and then we'll see where we go from there.

而且我們也知道，隨著我們在分析數據和更實時地思考的能力上越來越好，我們在收入管理流程上也越來越好，我們的產品銷售也在網上繼續改進.所以這就是我們有信心看到它的地方。我們在第二季度看到的情況給了我們很大的信心。我們將打破我們剛剛在第一季度創造的記錄，然後我們將看看我們從那裡去哪裡。

Very good. Yes. I actually have purchased that big front seat a number of times. That's a great product. I guess what I was wondering at what the premium revenue is if you'd be -- if you'd look at expanding that?

很好。是的。我實際上已經多次購買了那個大前座。這是一個很棒的產品。我想我想知道如果您願意的話，溢價收入是多少——如果您考慮擴大它？

So that is all part of what we do today. And Dan, what you just said is an exact example of why we have the product because whether you were going on your trips for leisure or for business, that's why that product is there is to make sure that we can capture premium revenue when that premium revenue wants to financially on Spirit.

這就是我們今天所做的全部工作的一部分。丹，您剛才所說的是我們為什麼擁有該產品的一個確切例子，因為無論您是休閒旅行還是商務旅行，這就是為什麼該產品的存在是為了確保我們能夠在該溢價時獲得溢價收入收入想在精神上獲得財務。

So we have time for 1 more question.

所以我們有時間再回答 1 個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna International.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna International 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

So I'll keep it to 1 question. So Peter, Scott, you and peers have had 2-or-so years here to look at your cost with, say, a microscope, which I'm guessing also included a deep dive look at your network operations. Given that, what have you learned with respect to your ability to get ahead of situations that may stress your network perhaps more than planned? And I guess, perhaps said another way, is there a plan in place to structurally address the stress points in the network and related costs? And can you do that? Or will changing your approach to utilization effectively change the DNA of how your airline operates?

所以我會保留1個問題。因此，彼得、斯科特、您和同行已經在這裡用了 2 年左右的時間來查看您的成本，比如顯微鏡，我猜這還包括深入了解您的網絡運營。鑑於此，您在應對可能給您的網絡帶來的壓力可能超出計劃的情況的能力方面學到了什麼？我想，也許換一種說法，是否有計劃從結構上解決網絡中的壓力點和相關成本？你能做到嗎？或者改變您的使用方法是否會有效地改變您航空公司運營方式的 DNA？

Sure, Chris. So I'll start if Scott -- Scott can add a little bit. But I think the point you make is a good one, which is why we've tackled the issue the way we have. So the way that we're thinking about the problem, which is as the network expands and the airline gets bigger, the best way to create resiliency is to structure it in a way that actually makes it more replaceable and recoverable in the event of disruption. Disruption happens all the time, there'll be weather in Texas, there might be weather in the Midwest. Obviously, Florida has had its issues more recently. But being able to adapt to it and recover from it is the challenge that we faced. And so the solution is to make the airline more out and back. That means airplanes leave from where they depart and they eventually return to that same city within a flight or 2.

當然，克里斯。因此，如果 Scott -- Scott 可以補充一點，我將開始。但我認為你提出的觀點很好，這就是我們以現有方式解決問題的原因。因此，我們考慮這個問題的方式是，隨著網絡的擴展和航空公司的壯大，創造彈性的最佳方式是以一種在發生中斷時實際上使其更具可替換性和可恢復性的方式來構建它.中斷一直在發生，德克薩斯州會有天氣，中西部可能會有天氣。顯然，佛羅里達州最近遇到了問題。但能夠適應它並從中恢復是我們面臨的挑戰。所以解決方案是讓航空公司更多地往返。這意味著飛機從出發地出發，最終在一兩趟航班內返回同一個城市。

And once you do that and you enhance the network with more crew bases, crews actually naturally start to follow that same pattern. They start to follow much more out and backs. So when you have an isolated issue in Florida, you're able to kind of remove the floor to flying without disrupting the rest of the Midwest and the Northeast and the West Coast. And we, of course, have been making those changes over the last decade and learning from them.

一旦你這樣做了，你用更多的船員基地來加強網絡，船員實際上自然會開始遵循同樣的模式。他們開始更多地追隨。因此，當您在佛羅里達州遇到孤立的問題時，您可以在不影響中西部、東北部和西海岸的其他地區的情況下消除飛行障礙。當然，我們在過去十年中一直在做出這些改變並從中學習。

But obviously, these enhancements will continue to move through the system. So we're optimistic, as I said before, that they're going to work extremely well. They'll do it in ways where we're just -- we're sort of maintaining the cost that's in the infrastructure today, just redistributing where we spend it and making the business more resilient. That's kind of the problem we tackled. So Scott?

但顯然，這些增強功能將繼續在系統中移動。因此，正如我之前所說，我們很樂觀，他們會工作得非常好。他們會以我們的方式來做——我們在某種程度上維持今天基礎設施中的成本，只是重新分配我們花費的地方，讓業務更有彈性。這就是我們解決的問題。所以斯科特？

Yes. And the only other thing I would add, Chris, is really the -- as we mature as a company, historically, we would drive the lowest cost we could, and that would be sort of 1 singular outcome. I think the advancement of our thought process really drives a fourth dimension to that, which is a range of outcomes or the risk to the outcome. So what Ted's talking about becomes more a predictability of that outcome and a resiliency in the business. So that sort of fourth dimension is what we've added over time, and we feel good about where the network sits, our ability to predict a recovery and those things. So I think that's an important element, that stability of the cost structure that we've added over the near term.

是的。克里斯，我唯一要補充的另一件事是——隨著我們作為一家公司成熟，從歷史上看，我們將盡可能降低成本，這將是一種單一的結果。我認為我們思維過程的進步確實推動了第四個維度，即一系列結果或結果的風險。因此，泰德所說的更多是對結果的可預測性和業務的彈性。因此，這種第四維度是我們隨著時間的推移添加的，我們對網絡所在的位置、我們預測恢復的能力以及這些事情感覺良好。所以我認為這是一個重要的因素，即我們在短期內增加的成本結構的穩定性。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we will see -- talk to you soon.

偉大的。謝謝大家今天加入我們，我們將看到 - 很快就會與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。