Spirit Airlines Inc (SAVE) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Adam, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Spirit Airlines Q2 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Vivian Tavarez, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

謝謝你的支持。我叫 Adam，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加精神航空 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係經理維維安·塔瓦雷斯 (Vivian Tavarez)。請繼續。

Thank you, Adam, and welcome, everyone, to Spirit Airlines' Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. As soon as it is available, we will archive a replay of this call on our website for a minimum of 60 days.

謝謝 Adam，歡迎大家參加 Spirit Airlines 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。此次通話正在錄音並同時進行網路直播。一旦可用，我們將在我們的網站上將此通話的重播存檔至少 60 天。

Presenting on today's call are Ted Christie, Spirit's Chief Executive Officer; Matt Klein, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Scott Haralson, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us are other members of our senior leadership team. Following our prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session for analysts. Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that are based on the company's current expectations and are not a guarantee of future performance.

Spirit 執行長 Ted Christie 出席了今天的電話會議。 Matt Klein，我們的商務長；和我們的財務長史考特·哈拉爾森。加入我們的還有我們高階領導團隊的其他成員。在我們準備好的發言之後，將為分析師舉行問答環節。今天的討論包含基於公司目前預期的前瞻性陳述，並非對未來業績的保證。

There could be significant risks and uncertainties that cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, various risks and uncertainties related to the acquisition of Spirit by JetBlue and other risk factors discussed in our reports on file with the SEC. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

可能存在重大風險和不確定性，導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異，包括但不限於與捷藍航空收購Spirit 相關的各種風險和不確定性以及我們在我們的前瞻性陳述中討論的其他風險因素。向 SEC 存檔的報告。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任，投資者不應過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

In comparing results today, we will be adjusting all periods to exclude special items unless otherwise noted. For an explanation and reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP, please refer to the reconciliation tables provided in our second quarter 2023 earnings release. A copy of which is available on our website under the Investor Relations section at ir.spirit.com.

在今天比較結果時，除非另有說明，我們將調整所有期間以排除特殊項目。有關這些非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 的解釋和調節，請參閱我們 2023 年第二季財報發布中提供的調整表。您可以在我們的網站 ir.spirit.com 的投資者關係部分取得該文件的副本。

I will now turn the call over to Ted Christie, Spirit's President and CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給 Spirit 總裁兼執行長 Ted Christie。

Thanks, Viv, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. I want to start by saying thank you to our entire Spirit team and our business partners for their commitment and dedication and caring for our guests and minimizing the negative impact from the rash of thunderstorms that have plagued us here in the Fort Lauderdale area and across much of our network in recent months.

謝謝 Viv，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。首先，我要向我們的整個Spirit 團隊和業務合作夥伴表示感謝，感謝他們的承諾、奉獻和對客人的關心，並最大限度地減少了困擾勞德代爾堡地區和其他地區的雷暴帶來的負面影響。近幾個月來我們的網路。

And while our reported DOT operating metrics for the quarter were negatively impacted by all the weather events, and a plethora of Air Traffic Control initiatives. Our controllable completion factor for the quarter was very good, coming in at 99.7%.

儘管我們報告的本季度交通部營運指標受到所有天氣事件和大量空中交通管制舉措的負面影響。本季我們的可控製完成率非常好，達到99.7%。

Turning to our second quarter 2023 financial performance. Operating margin was 3.3%, about 2 points below our initial guide. Total RASM for the quarter was strong and well above pre-COVID historical averages. However, demand for the peak summer travel period has not built as we expected, resulting in lower fare levels.

轉向我們 2023 年第二季的財務表現。營業利益率為 3.3%，比我們最初的指導值低約 2 個百分點。本季的 RASM 總額強勁，遠高於新冠疫情爆發前的歷史平均值。然而，夏季旅遊高峰期的需求並未像我們預期的那樣增加，導致票價水準較低。

We are comparing to a period of exceptionally strong domestic and near-field international demand in 2022, while at the same time, seeing a dramatic demand shift away from these regions towards long-haul international. Inclement weather and ATC disruptions in the peak part of June also contributed to the lower TRASM. These demand and pricing trends and difficult weather continued throughout July and are expected to continue into the fall.

我們將 2022 年國內和近場國際需求異常強勁的時期進行比較，同時發現需求急劇從這些地區轉向長途國際。 6 月高峰期的惡劣天氣和 ATC 中斷也導致了 TRASM 的下降。這些需求和價格趨勢以及惡劣的天氣持續了整個七月，預計將持續到秋季。

However, once the international summer travel season ends and kids go back to school, we expect demand will shift back towards domestic. This should mean a more normal pricing and demand environment for the peak holiday travel periods in the fourth quarter. Before Matt and Scott share further details about our second quarter performance and forward outlook, I want to update you on our issues with the GTF engine that powers our NEO fleet.

然而，一旦國際夏季旅遊旺季結束、孩子們重返校園，我們預計需求將重新轉向國內。這應該意味著第四季度假日旅遊高峰期的定價和需求環境更加正常。在馬特和斯科特分享有關我們第二季度業績和前景的更多詳細信息之前，我想向您介紹我們為 NEO 機隊提供動力的 GTF 發動機的最新問題。

Last week, RTX shared that Pratt & Whitney had recently discovered a quality control issue during the manufacture of a disc on NEO engines produced primarily between Q4 2015 and Q3 2021. Out of an abundance of caution, Pratt has identified an initial 200 engines for accelerated inspection, and we were told that we had up to 13 engines in this group. The current plan is to begin pulling these engines from service after Labor Day, which will result in 7 NEO aircraft being removed from scheduled service. This is above and beyond the current set of aircraft on ground or AOG as we refer to them, which as of today sits at 7 aircraft.

上週，RTX 透露，普惠公司最近在主要於2015 年第四季至2021 年第三季生產的NEO 引擎盤的製造過程中發現了品質控制問題。出於謹慎考慮，普惠公司已確定最初的200 台發動機用於加速檢查後，我們被告知該組最多有 13 台發動機。目前的計劃是在勞動節後開始停止使用這些發動機，這將導致 7 架 NEO 飛機停止定期服務。這超出了目前地面飛機數量或我們所說的 AOG 數量，截至目前，地面飛機數量為 7 架。

For planning purposes, we are assuming these 7 additional aircraft will be out of service post Labor Day through the end of the year. Matt will discuss this impact in more detail, but the close-in nature of the schedule reduction does have a significant impact on revenue for September. It is worth noting that Spirit is the largest operator of GTF-powered NEOs in the United States with the highest number of engines produced during the 2015 to 2021 period.

出於規劃目的，我們假設這 7 架額外的飛機將在勞動節後停止使用直至今年年底。馬特將更詳細地討論這一影響，但日程減少的密切性質確實對 9 月的收入產生了重大影響。值得注意的是，Spirit是美國最大的GTF動力NEO營運商，在2015年至2021年期間生產的引擎數量最多。

Exposure to this issue is very unique and material for us and is having an impact on our margin. We should know by mid to late September, how many of the additional 1,000 engines Pratt has identified for inspection are ones we operate. Timing for the engine inspections on the next 1,000 is not yet known, but we believe it likely the inspections will need to be performed before the end of September 2024. Pratt has indicated that some of the 1,000 engines may already be scheduled for removal in 2024. So the net incremental impact may be smaller.

暴露於這個問題對我們來說是非常獨特和重要的，並且對我們的利潤產生了影響。到 9 月中下旬，我們應該知道普拉特已確定檢查的額外 1,000 台引擎中有多少是我們正在運行的。對接下來 1,000 台發動機進行檢查的時間尚不清楚，但我們認為檢查可能需要在 2024 年 9 月底之前進行。普拉特表示，這 1,000 台發動機中的一些可能已計劃在 2024 年拆除所以淨增量影響可能會更小。

However, we will learn more in September. We are still managing through a significant number of unscheduled NEO engine removals due to an assortment of issues previously disclosed and discussed. Throughout the second quarter, we had 6 and currently have 7 aircraft out of service and have assumed the same for the fourth quarter. That said, our maintenance planning team is gaining confidence by the end of the year, we should see this count reduce at least temporarily to about 4 aircraft.

不過，我們將在 9 月了解更多。由於先前披露和討論的各種問題，我們仍在處理大量計劃外的 NEO 引擎拆除問題。在整個第二季度，我們有 6 架飛機停飛，目前有 7 架飛機停飛，並假設第四季也是如此。也就是說，我們的維護計畫團隊在今年年底前信心十足，我們應該會看到這一數量至少暫時減少到 4 架左右。

And while unscheduled removals should ease as we enter 2024, unfortunately, next year, we have a large spike in the number of scheduled NEO engine checks as a result of a short time life-limited part, which means that we will have the equivalent of at least 10 aircraft out of service during most of 2024. This, of course, doesn't include any additional aircraft we will have to ground as a result of the latest engine issue.

雖然隨著我們進入 2024 年，計劃外拆除應該會有所緩解，但不幸的是，明年，由於壽命有限的部件，我們計劃內的 NEO 發動機檢查數量會大幅增加，這意味著我們將有相當於2024 年的大部分時間裡，至少有10 架飛機停止使用。當然，這不包括我們因最新發動機問題而不得不停飛的任何其他飛機。

This new issue is yet another frustrating and disappointing development. RTX has promised to make the airlines affected by this new NEO engine issue, whole. And for now, we intend to take them at their word and use that assumption in our planning. The details and timings of those reimbursements are unknown as of yet. We'll keep you posted as we get further updates.

這個新問題是另一個令人沮喪和失望的發展。 RTX 承諾讓受新 NEO 引擎問題影響的航空公司得到徹底解決。目前，我們打算相信他們的話，並在我們的計劃中使用這個假設。這些報銷的細節和時間目前尚不清楚。當我們得到進一步的更新時，我們會及時通知您。

Matt, over to you.

馬特，交給你了。

Thanks, Ted, and a special thanks to all our team members. We carried a record number of guests and everyone involved continues to do a great job managing the high volumes while navigating the numerous weather and ATC challenges. I'll start with a brief overview of our second quarter revenue performance and provide some color on the demand environment for the third quarter.

謝謝，特德，特別感謝我們所有的團隊成員。我們的載客量創下了歷史新高，所有相關人員都在應對眾多天氣和空中交通管制挑戰的同時，繼續出色地管理大量乘客。我將首先簡要概述我們第二季的營收表現，並對第三季的需求環境提供一些說明。

Total revenue for the second quarter was $1.43 billion, up 4.8% year-over-year. Total RASM was $10.3, a decrease of 10.7% on a capacity increase of 17%. Load factor was 82.9%, down 3.1 points year-over-year. Compared to Q2 2019, total RASM was up 9.6% on a capacity increase of nearly 30%, a strong result, but short of our expectations.

第二季總營收為14.3億美元，年增4.8%。 RASM 總額為 10.3 美元，容量增加了 17%，但減少了 10.7%。載客率為82.9%，較去年同期下降3.1個百分點。與 2019 年第二季相比，RASM 總量成長了 9.6%，產能增加了近 30%，這是一個強勁的結果，但低於我們的預期。

On a per segment basis, passenger revenue per segment decreased 20% year-over-year to $57.86. Non-ticket trends remain strong, and on a per segment basis increased 2.9% or about $2 year-over-year to a second quarter record of over $70. Based on trends we were seeing earlier in the year, coupled with the knowledge of what performed exceedingly well in the summer of 2022, we made the intentional move to increase the number of longer stage flights heading into the peak summer travel period.

以航段計算，每個航段的乘客收入年減 20% 至 57.86 美元。非票務趨勢依然強勁，按細分市場計算，年增 2.9%，約 2 美元，達到第二季超過 70 美元的紀錄。根據我們今年稍早看到的趨勢，再加上對 2022 年夏季表現出色的航班的了解，我們有意採取行動，增加進入夏季旅行高峰期的較長航段航班數量。

In the second quarter, in aggregate, these routes performed in line with pre-COVID historical averages. However, we were anticipating they would outperform those averages and have results similar to what we had experienced in the recent past. In addition, demand did not build into the peak summer period as we had anticipated, leading to lower fares across the network.

總的來說，第二季這些航線的表現與新冠疫情爆發前的歷史平均值一致。然而，我們預計它們的表現將優於平均水平，並取得與我們最近經歷的結果類似的結果。此外，需求並未如我們預期的那樣進入夏季高峰期，導致整個網路的票價較低。

When we look at our second quarter revenue guide compared to flow in results, approximately 25% of the revenue miss was associated with elevated cancellations in the quarter and the balance of the revenue variance was split between longer haul domestic performance, as I just described above, along with a general regional demand impact. Ted mentioned earlier that we had to make a significant change to our September schedule due to issues regarding the GTF engines for Pratt & Whitney.

當我們將第二季度的收入指南與結果流量進行比較時，大約25% 的收入損失與該季度取消航班的增加有關，而收入差異的平衡則在長途國內業績之間分配，正如我上面所描述的那樣，以及總體區域需求的影響。泰德早些時候提到，由於普惠公司的 GTF 引擎出現問題，我們必須對 9 月的時間表做出重大改變。

We received the update on the last day before we put our September scheduled event. This update required us to remove 7 available aircraft from the fleet on less than 24 hours' notice. Under normal circumstances, we would select a flying that is expected to have the lowest contribution to the network. However, in this situation, we had to remove flying that our already built lines of flying could offer up relatively easily since we didn't have time to build out an entirely new schedule. This results in an operating schedule that isn't exactly as commercially effective as we would otherwise set out for sale.

我們在安排 9 月預定活動之前的最後一天收到了更新。此更新要求我們在 24 小時內發出通知，從機隊中移除 7 架可用飛機。一般情況下，我們會選擇預計對網路貢獻最小的航班。然而，在這種情況下，我們不得不取消我們已經建立的飛行線路可以相對容易地提供的航班，因為我們沒有時間制定全新的時間表。這導致營運計劃在商業上並不像我們原本計劃的那樣有效。

We did remove nearly 5% of planned September capacity due to this specific engine removal issue, and we expect this new AOG issue will penalize revenue production in Q3 by approximately 1.5%, which is on top of the lost revenue for the original NEO AOG issue, which we estimate reduces revenue by nearly 6%. So we do expect to smooth out our schedule in October, but the impact to top line revenue will continue until these issues are resolved.

由於這個特定的引擎移除問題，我們確實取消了9 月份計劃產能的近5%，我們預計這個新的AOG 問題將使第三季度的收入生產減少約1.5%，這是在最初的NEO AOG 問題的收入損失之上的，我們估計這會使收入減少近 6%。因此，我們確實預計 10 月的計劃會順利進行，但在這些問題解決之前，對營收的影響將持續下去。

Turning now to third quarter guidance. We expect the demand trends in the domestic U.S., Latin America, and the Caribbean to continue to be weaker than normal throughout the third quarter as a result of the carry forward of demand shifting to long-haul international and very difficult operations throughout the peak due to weather and ATC.

現在轉向第三季指引。我們預計第三季度美國國內、拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的需求趨勢將繼續弱於正常水平，因為需求將轉向長途國際航線，並且整個高峰期運營非常困難。天氣和 ATC。

Taking this into account as well as adjusting for the additional out-of-service aircraft, we estimate total revenue for the third quarter 2023 will range between $1.3 billion and $1.32 billion down 3.2% to down 1.7%, with capacity increasing 13.7% year-over-year. This equates to unit revenue being down 13.6% to 14.9% year-over-year in the third quarter.

考慮到這一點以及對額外停運飛機的調整，我們預計 2023 年第三季的總收入將在 13 億美元至 13.2 億美元之間，下降 3.2% 至 1.7%，運力同比增長 13.7%。超過一年。這相當於第三季單位營收年減 13.6% 至 14.9%。

And with that, I will now turn it over to Scott.

現在，我將把它交給斯科特。

Thanks, Matt. After briefly discussing our Q2 results and Q3 guidance, I'll share a few details about our recent fleet changes. Our second quarter operating costs were $1.39 billion. Nonfuel operating expenses came in at the better end of our expectations at $994.5 million. Fuel expense was in line with our guide. Fuel gallons were modestly lower, but average fuel price was higher than estimated. Compared to when we gave our guide in late April, crude oil prices improved crack spreads widened across the board, driving a fuel price per gallon for the second quarter of $2.62, slightly higher than estimated guide of $2.60 per gallon.

謝謝，馬特。在簡要討論我們的第二季業績和第三季指導之後，我將分享我們最近機隊變化的一些細節。我們第二季的營運成本為 13.9 億美元。非燃料營運支出達到 9.945 億美元，優於我們的預期。燃油費用符合我們的指南。燃油加侖數略有下降，但平均燃油價格高於預期。與我們 4 月下旬發布指導時相比，原油價格有所改善，裂解價差全面擴大，推動第二季度每加侖燃油價格達到 2.62 美元，略高於預計的每加侖 2.60 美元。

On a year-over-year basis, lower fuel expense driven by a 39.1% decrease in average fuel prices, offset increases driven by more flight volume, additional aircraft rent and inflationary wage pressures. Total non-operating expense came in better than we estimated, primarily due to a non-cash benefit related to the mark-to-market valuation of the derivative liability associated with the 2026 convertible notes. As a reminder, when we give our non-op guidance, it excludes any potential change in the mark-to-market adjustment.

與去年同期相比，平均燃油價格下降 39.1% 導致燃油費用下降，抵消了航班量增加、飛機租金增加和通膨工資壓力的成長。非營業費用總額優於我們的預期，主要是由於與 2026 年可轉換票據相關的衍生負債按市值計價相關的非現金收益。提醒一下，當我們給出非操作指引時，它排除了按市值調整的任何潛在變化。

Liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $1.5 billion, which includes unrestricted cash and cash equivalents short-term investments and the $300 million of capacity under our revolving credit facility. During the second quarter, we retired 3 A319neos, took delivery of 5 A320neos and delivery of our first A321neo aircraft, ending the quarter with 198 aircraft in the fleet. We currently estimate that total capital expenditures for the full year of 2023 will be about $255 million.

第二季末的流動性為 15 億美元，其中包括不受限制的現金和現金等價物短期投資以及我們循環信貸安排下的 3 億美元容量。第二季度，我們退役了 3 架 A319neo，接收了 5 架 A320neo，並交付了第一架 A321neo 飛機，本季末機隊共有 198 架飛機。我們目前預計 2023 年全年資本支出總額約為 2.55 億美元。

Looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters, the development of the new NEO disc issue, together with our other remaining NEO engine availability issues, drive lower overall capacity production that harms our efficiency. However, on a positive note, our pilot attrition has reduced and assuming this lower level of attrition continues for the remainder of the year we would have been at full fleet utilization by Q4. The recent Pratt news results in even less aircraft in our fleet being available for operations. And this means we will likely be overstaffed and carry more pilots than required for Q4 and into early 2024.

展望第三和第四季度，新 NEO 光碟問題的發展，以及我們其他剩餘的 NEO 引擎可用性問題，將導致整體產能下降，從而損害我們的效率。然而，積極的一面是，我們的飛行員損耗有所減少，假設這種較低的損耗水平在今年剩餘時間內持續下去，我們的機隊將在第四季度達到滿負荷利用率。最近的普拉特新聞導致我們機隊中可供運營的飛機更少。這意味著我們可能會人員過剩，並攜帶比第四季和 2024 年初所需的更多的飛行員。

With pilot attrition no longer being a drag on our utilization by the fourth quarter, we can now isolate the AOG issues and look at the core airline. The core airline that is excluding AOGs, should be back to full utilization by Q4 and is expected to be closer to run rate margin in CASM ex production. The drag on margin caused by the AOG aircraft should be viewed as neutralized due to RTX's make-whole commitment. Now let me discuss some of the recent changes to the Airbus order book.

到第四季度，飛行員流失不再成為我們利用率的拖累，我們現在可以隔離 AOG 問題並專注於核心航空公司。不包括 AOG 的核心航空公司應該會在第四季度恢復充分利用，並且預計將接近 CASM 出廠時的運行率利潤率。由於 RTX 的整體承諾，AOG 飛機對利潤率造成的拖累應該被視為被抵銷。現在讓我討論一下空中巴士訂單簿最近的一些變化。

Early this year, we were given delayed aircraft delivery dates for 2023 and part of 2024, piling up deliveries in 2024. In addition, it has been widely expected that these delays would continue beyond 2024. We also had some decisions regarding a few of our A319neo orders and option aircraft that needed to be made. Airbus has also been clear to us about their own production limitations and backlog of orders that will likely push new order deliveries into 2030 and beyond.

今年早些時候，我們被告知延遲了2023 年和2024 年部分時間的飛機交付日期，導致2024 年的交付量不斷增加。此外，人們普遍預計這些延遲將持續到2024 年之後。我們也就一些項目做出了一些決定A319neo 訂單和需要製造的可選飛機。空中巴士公司也向我們明確了自己的生產限制和積壓訂單，這可能會將新訂單的交付推遲到 2030 年及以後。

Also, in the near term, we need a general slowdown of growth to derisk the business and give ourselves a chance to digest the previous few years of growth. Given all of these things and the fact that our original orders only extended into 2027, we started discussing a broader reevaluation of our future aircraft deliveries.

此外，在短期內，我們需要成長普遍放緩，以消除業務風險，並讓我們有機會消化前幾年的成長。考慮到所有這些事情以及我們最初的訂單僅延長到 2027 年這一事實，我們開始討論對未來飛機交付進行更廣泛的重新評估。

At the end of the day, we agreed to make the following changes without changing the total number of commitments: One, we reduced 2024 deliveries by 11 and smooth the remaining deliveries between 2025 and 2029. Together with our direct lease commitments and the retiring of our A319, these changes slower growth in the near term and provide us a consistent level of deliveries for the back half of the decade.

最終，我們同意在不改變承諾總數的情況下做出以下改變：第一，我們將 2024 年的交付量減少 11 架，並在 2025 年至 2029 年之間平滑剩餘的交付量。我們的A319 飛機，這些變化在短期內減緩了增長，並為我們在本世紀後半段提供了穩定的交付水平。

Number two, we upgauged all of our A319neo orders to A321neos to be delivered between 2025 and 2029.

第二，我們將所有 A319neo 訂單升級為 A321neo，預計在 2025 年至 2029 年期間交付。

And three, we moved the timing of our option aircraft decision by 1 year and smooth the timing of those options.

第三，我們將選擇飛機的決策時間延後了一年，並平滑了這些選擇的時間安排。

A lot of moving parts here, all of which we believe are positive to both Spirit and Airbus. And we appreciate Airbus partnering with us together to make a meaningful agreement giving us a stable and predictable order book for the aircraft mix we view as most beneficial to Spirit. At the time we made these decisions, we estimated these fleet changes would produce the 2024 growth rate in the high teens. However, that was before learning about the latest NEO engine issue.

這裡有很多變化，我們相信所有這些對精神航空和空中巴士公司都是積極的。我們感謝空中巴士與我們合作，達成一項有意義的協議，為我們認為對精神航空最有利的飛機組合提供穩定且可預測的訂單。在我們做出這些決定時，我們估計這些機隊變化將導致 2024 年的成長率達到兩位數。然而，那是在了解最新的 NEO 引擎問題之前。

It will be a few more months before we fully understand what the impact may be on our 2024 capacity plans. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate our operating margin will range between negative 5.5% to negative 7.5%. We estimate fuel cost per gallon will average $2.80 with total operating expenses ranging between $1.39 billion and $1.40 billion. Our third quarter guidance metrics are included in our investor update published today, a copy of which can be found on our website at ir.spirit.com.

我們還需要幾個月的時間才能完全了解這對我們 2024 年產能計畫可能產生的影響。展望第三季度，我們預期營業利潤率將在負 5.5% 至負 7.5% 之間。我們估計每加侖燃料成本平均為 2.80 美元，總營運費用在 13.9 億美元到 14 億美元之間。我們的第三季指導指標包含在今天發布的投資者更新中，其副本可以在我們的網站 ir.spirit.com 上找到。

Before I hand it back to Ted, I do want to recognize our operators. The past few months have been a difficult weather and ATC environment and our crews, our airport staff, the operations control center staff and the other operation support personnel have been the ultimate professionals, and I wanted to give them a quick shout out.

在將其交還給特德之前，我確實想向我們的接線員致意。過去幾個月天氣惡劣，空中交通管制環境惡劣，我們的機組人員、機場工作人員、運行控制中心工作人員和其他運行支援人員都是最專業的人員，我想向他們表示感謝。

So now I'll turn it back over to Ted for closing remarks.

現在我將把它轉回給 Ted 做結束語。

Thanks, Scott. Although we made progress on improving our operating margin in the second quarter of 2023, we are clearly still underperforming our potential and face a challenging Q3.

謝謝，斯科特。儘管我們在 2023 年第二季在提高營業利潤率方面取得了進展，但我們顯然仍未能發揮我們的潛力，並面臨充滿挑戰的第三季。

We acknowledge that some of this is due to decisions we made coming out of the pandemic. In hindsight, slower growth would have been more ideal during and coming out of the pandemic. This was largely impossible for us due to the pace of our contracted deliveries. That, coupled with high pilot attrition issues have been contributing factors and are struggled to return to full fleet utilization. It is possible that we are being overly conservative with how tight we are willing to run the network with the intention of supporting operational reliability but at the cost of penalizing utilization.

我們承認，其中部分原因是我們在應對疫情時所做的決定。事後看來，在疫情期間和結束後，成長放緩會更為理想。由於我們合約交付的速度，這對我們來說基本上是不可能的。再加上飛行員的高流失率問題一直是促成因素，很難恢復機隊的充分利用。我們可能對網路運作的嚴格程度過於保守，目的是支援運作可靠性，但代價是降低利用率。

Labor, weather and infrastructure issues have been volatile and unpredictable. But we are optimistic that some of our learnings over the past few years will help productivity in the back part of 2023 and full year 2024. Pilot attrition rates in June, July and indications for August are trending better than we expected, which is great. It also means that for Q3, we could have flown more hours on the peak days than we scheduled and has resulted in a missed opportunity.

勞動力、天氣和基礎設施問題一直不穩定且不可預測。但我們樂觀地認為，過去幾年的一些經驗將有助於提高2023 年下半年和2024 年全年的生產力。6 月、7 月的飛行員流失率以及8 月的跡象趨勢好於我們的預期，這很好。這也意味著在第三季度，我們在高峰日的飛行時間可能比計畫的要長，這錯失了機會。

Nonetheless, assuming our pilot attrition rates stay where they are or improve further, our growth is no longer constrained by pilots, which bodes well for our core fleet, achieving full utilization in peak Q4. In fact, if we weren't burdened with aircraft being pulled from service due to GTF issues, we believe we could achieve full utilization on our entire fleet by year-end.

儘管如此，假設我們的飛行員流失率保持不變或進一步改善，我們的成長不再受到飛行員的限制，這對我們的核心機隊來說是個好兆頭，將在第四季度的高峰期實現充分利用。事實上，如果我們不承受飛機因 GTF 問題而停飛的負擔，我們相信我們可以在年底前實現整個機隊的充分利用。

We believe we missed out on some passenger volume in June and July holding out for higher yields that did not materialize, and we have revised our approach for the fall. Not surprisingly, accurately predicting the new normal demand levels post-pandemic has been challenging. We are making tactical changes to our network post the Labor Day holiday, including more variation between peak and non-peak day of week flying, which in this demand environment, we believe is the revenue and margin maximizing answer. The fleet decisions we have made, including the early retirement of the A319s, revising the pace of our aircraft deliveries beginning in 2024 through 2029 and upgauging more deliveries to the A321 variant should all drive fuel and other cost efficiency benefits in 2024 and beyond and allow us to deliver growth more in line with expected demand growth.

我們認為，我們錯過了 6 月和 7 月的一些客運量，這些客運量並未實現更高的收益率，因此我們修改了秋季的方法。毫不奇怪，準確預測疫情後新的正常需求水準一直具有挑戰性。勞動節假期後，我們正在對我們的網路進行戰術調整，包括一周中高峰期和非高峰期航班之間的更多變化，在這種需求環境下，我們認為這是收入和利潤最大化的答案。我們所做的機隊決策，包括提前退役 A319 飛機、調整 2024 年至 2029 年的飛機交付速度以及增加 A321 型號的交付量，這些都應在 2024 年及以後推動燃油和其他成本效率效益並允許我們的成長更符合預期的需求成長。

In conclusion, the dynamics of the airline business are constant. One thing that I have learned over my 2-plus decade career is that things in the airline industry can change quickly and often. Sometimes the answer is to pivot and sometimes the better answer is to stay at the course. The current setup is simply not favorable to a domestic-focused airline, especially while still operating with some lack of efficiency and productivity. I believe these things will change in our favor, and we are taking steps now to be positioned to capitalize on.

總之，航空業務的動態是恆定的。在我兩年多的職業生涯中，我學到的一件事是，航空業的情況可能會快速且頻繁地改變。有時答案是轉變，有時更好的答案是堅持到底。目前的設置對於一家專注於國內的航空公司來說根本不有利，尤其是在效率和生產力仍存在一定缺陷的情況下。我相信這些事情將會發生對我們有利的變化，我們現在正在採取措施以做好充分利用的準備。

Frustrations aside, our team is doing a great job adjusting as necessary, and I strongly believe our expected 3Q performance is an anomaly. Most important for us, as we trend towards a normalized utilization rate, we expect our cost structure to return to industry-leading levels and provide us margin tailwinds and a considerable advantage against the rest of the industry.

撇開挫折不談，我們的團隊在必要時進行了出色的調整，我堅信我們預期的第三季表現是反常的。對我們來說最重要的是，隨著我們的利用率趨於正常化，我們預計我們的成本結構將恢復到行業領先水平，並為我們提供利潤順風和相對於行業其他公司的相當大的優勢。

And now back to Vivian to begin the Q&A session.

現在回到 Vivian 開始問答環節。

Thank you, Ted. (Operator Instructions). Adam we are ready to begin.

謝謝你，泰德。 （操作員說明）。亞當，我們準備開始了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Ted just (inaudible) this comment of shifting day of week, it's been a big theme this (inaudible) just ignoring the potential fare impacts. But just -- when you think about operational stress on the system, when you add more (technical difficulty).

泰德（聽不清楚）剛剛發表了關於一周中不同日期的評論，這是一個大主題，（聽不清楚）只是忽略了潛在的票價影響。但是，當您考慮系統的操作壓力時，當您添加更多（技術難度）時。

Conor, you're -- Sorry Conor, cutting in and out, but I think you asked about day of week variation and the operational effect of that, is that right?

康納，您——抱歉，康納，插話了，但我想您問的是一周中的某一天的變化及其操作效果，對嗎？

Yes. Yes. Sorry about that.

是的。是的。對於那個很抱歉。

Okay. No problem. So you're right. I mean 1 of the things that we implemented as a result of our learnings from 2021 here was that we started to smooth the airline out a little bit more because it is easier for particularly airport ops to understand and schedule the airline. But that is only 1 of the many things that we've implemented as part of our operational enhancement package. And I alluded to that in my comments that we have quite a few things that we've done to make our operation run, and I think it's been having a nice effect. And so as part of the learnings from that, we're looking at things that are most effective and some of the things that we did that weren't having as much of an impact.

好的。沒問題。所以你是對的。我的意思是，根據 2021 年的經驗教訓，我們實施的一件事是，我們開始讓航空公司變得更加順暢，因為特別是機場營運人員更容易了解和安排航空公司。但這只是我們作為營運增強包的一部分實施的眾多措施之一。我在評論中提到，我們已經做了很多事情來讓我們的業務正常運行，我認為這已經產生了很好的結果。因此，作為從中學到的一部分，我們正在研究最有效的事情，以及我們所做的一些沒有太大影響的事情。

And so we believe that while we're not going to stress the airline too much going from peak to off peak, there is some opportunity for us to drive some of that, which will help unit revenue, and we think it helps the margin at the end of the day, particularly in the off-peak period.

因此，我們相信，雖然我們不會在從高峰到非高峰的過程中給航空公司帶來太多壓力，但我們有機會推動其中的一些發展，這將有助於單位收入，而且我們認為這有助於提高利潤率一天結束時，尤其是在非尖峰時段。

Okay. And then on the GTF issue, you mentioned that perhaps talking about making-whole. I'm just -- I know you expect that to play out. Is that -- I mean I think Alliance talked about maintenance credits. Just any thoughts there would be helpful.

好的。然後在 GTF 問題上，您提到也許談論的是整體化。我只是——我知道你希望這會發生。那是——我的意思是我認為聯盟談論了維護積分。只要有任何想法都會有幫助。

No problem. Yes, it's still early. This all developed quite quickly on us. As we said, we had to make quick changes to September, which is not favorable at all. But 1 thing I will say about Pratt, we're a long-standing customer. This is a storied institution in the United States, 1 of the biggest industrials in the history of the United States and had a long-standing partnership with them, and they've always stood by their customers, and they've always honored their commitments. And so we expect that to be true. They've intended to make us whole on this issue, and that is our expectations. But coming to the -- the details of what that will look like and how it will take form, it's still too early to tell.

沒問題。是的，現在還早。這一切在我們身上發展得很快。正如我們所說，我們必須對九月做出快速改變，這根本不是有利的。但關於普拉特，我要說的一件事是，我們是長期客戶。這是美國的一個傳奇機構，美國歷史上最大的工業企業之一，與他們有著長期的合作夥伴關係，他們始終站在客戶一邊，也始終履行自己的承諾。所以我們希望這是真的。他們想讓我們在這個問題上保持完整，這就是我們的期望。但談到具體的情況和具體形式，現在下結論還為時過早。

Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Ted, your comment about holding out for yield was kind of interesting. I think there was a line in the press release about an acute reduction in demand. Can you talk about when you first saw that kind of acute reduction in demand? Is it sort of the other side of the coin of maybe holding out for yields? So I assume it was kind of late in the quarter issue? And any color on the markets where that was kind of felt most acutely, maybe Caribbean, et cetera?

泰德，你關於堅持收益率的評論很有趣。我認為新聞稿中有一句話是關於需求急劇減少的。您能談談您第一次看到這種需求急劇下降是什麼時候嗎？這是否是硬幣的另一面，可能會堅持等待收益率？所以我認為這是季度末的問題？市面上有哪些顏色讓這種感覺最為強烈，也許是加勒比海等等？

Sure, Duane. Thanks. I'll give just a brief intro, but I'm going to let Matt color around the edges. I think some of the points you made, and we used the words intentionally drive home, as we saw was very acute. We feel like it's isolated and noticeable and ties nicely with what we've witnessed and now heard people talk about rapid and distinct shift away from domestic and nearfield International, which was very strong last year to long-haul international, which is obviously considerably outperforming this year.

當然，杜安。謝謝。我只會做一個簡短的介紹，但我會讓馬特在邊緣上色。我認為你提出的一些觀點，我們使用了「故意開車回家」這個詞，正如我們所看到的，這是非常尖銳的。我們覺得它是孤立的、引人注目的，與我們所目睹的和現在聽到的人們談論的情況有很好的聯繫，從國內和近場國際（去年非常強勁）到長途國際（顯然表現相當出色）的快速而明顯的轉變今年。

And our strategy around handling yield clearly was patterned off of what we were seeing over the last 12-plus months, and that did not play out well towards the end of June. But Matt, what would you add about geography and that sort of thing?

我們關於處理收益率的策略顯然是根據過去 12 個多月的情況制定的，但到 6 月底時效果並不理想。但是馬特，關於地理之類的事情，你有什麼補充嗎？

Sure, Duane. I can -- 1 perfect example, I think, as you touched -- talked about Caribbean there for a second, Cancun would be an example of some of the abruptness that occurred during the quarter for us is April within the same quarter, April, we saw incredible demand strength, pricing power and sold-out flights basically every day. And then less than 2 months later, we saw in June which is still a very strong time for Cancun reverse with unit revenues, in some cases, down very high double-digit numbers percent change year-over-year. And that's all happening within the same quarter, and that's how abruptly things kind of moved.

當然，杜安。我可以——一個完美的例子，我想，正如你所觸及的——在那裡談論了加勒比海，坎昆將是我們這個季度發生的一些突然事件的一個例子，四月是同一季度，四月，我們幾乎每天都看到令人難以置信的需求強度、定價能力和售罄的航班。然後不到 2 個月後，我們看到 6 月對坎昆來說仍然是一個非常強勁的逆轉時期，單位收入在某些情況下同比下降了非常高的兩位數百分比變化。這一切都發生在同一季度，事情的變化就是如此突然。

And we have a couple of other examples like that, but that's probably the biggest example. And having said that, our capacity is up a little bit in Cancun. So some of that could be explainable, but not to the level that we actually saw. And the industry has added some extra capacity there, too. So it's always about supply and demand. But in this case, the demand just fell off.

我們還有其他幾個類似的例子，但這可能是最大的例子。話雖如此，我們在坎昆的運能增加。所以其中一些是可以解釋的，但還沒有達到我們實際看到的水平。該行業也在那裡增加了一些額外的產能。所以這始終與供給和需求有關。但在這種情況下，需求就下降了。

And as we talk about yield and think about June, but then also into the third -- end of June and then into the third quarter. We took a position that we had been seeing really for the last 15, 16, 17 months of the demand will be there and will come in and the yields will be impressive. And that just stopped relatively quickly.

當我們談論收益率並考慮 6 月時，然後也進入第三個——六月底，然後進入第三季。我們採取的立場是，我們在過去 15、16、17 個月中一直看到需求將會存在並且將會出現，並且收益率將會令人印象深刻。而這種情況很快就停止了。

It's not that it went completely away. It's just that it stopped at the same pace that we had seen. And really, we just -- we held out a little bit too long expecting to see those yields come in. Once you make an adjustment to that, then you are sacrificing yield for volume and then you need to see the volumes come in. So we are anticipating and starting to see the volumes come in. They're just at lower yields than what we'd like to normally see for third quarter.

並不是說它完全消失了。只是它以我們所看到的同樣的速度停止了。事實上，我們只是——我們等待了太久，期望看到這些收益率的到來。一旦你對此進行調整，那麼你就會犧牲收益率來換取銷量，然後你需要看到銷量的增加。所以我們正在預計並開始看到數量的增加。它們的收益率只是低於我們通常希望在第三季度看到的水平。

We have described this as an acute situation, and we are expecting to see demand trends here in the domestic U.S., but also near-field, international as well as U.S. territories bounce back. and look more normal as we get out of the summer into the fall and then especially at the peak periods in the fourth quarter.

我們將這種情況描述為嚴峻的形勢，我們預計美國國內、近場、國際以及美國領土的需求趨勢都會反彈。當我們從夏季進入秋季，尤其是在第四季度的高峰期時，情況看起來會更加正常。

Any themes on the originating city aspect to that demand change? Or did you see sort of variation depending upon what region of the country you're originating from?

關於需求變化的始發城市方面有什麼主題嗎？或者您發現根據您所在國家/地區的不同而存在某種差異？

No, not really, Duane. It feels like it's spread. I mean, being heavily East Coast-oriented, has an effect on some of the demand where that demand decides to go because as you would expect, Transatlantic, Europe is not too far away from the East Coast, relatively speaking. So there was an impact with that. But in general, we saw impacts, but East Coast really took it probably the most.

不，不是真的，杜安。感覺像是蔓延開來的。我的意思是，主要以東海岸為導向，會對某些需求產生影響，而這些需求決定去向，因為正如您所期望的那樣，相對而言，跨大西洋歐洲距離東海岸並不太遠。所以這產生了影響。但總的來說，我們看到了影響，但東海岸受到的影響可能最大。

That's great. I really appreciate that color. And then just on the engine issue, and this may be impossible at this point in time. But of this kind of negative 6%, negative 7% margin outlook for the third quarter. How many margin points do you think these specific engine issues are costing you? And to the extent that there's reimbursement sometime down the road, how would you size that headwind as of today?

那太棒了。我真的很欣賞這種顏色。然後就是引擎問題，目前這可能是不可能的。但這種第三季利潤率展望為負6%、負7%。您認為這些特定的引擎問題會讓您損失多少利潤點？如果將來某個時候會出現報銷，那麼截至目前您會如何看待這種阻力？

Sure. So we think the easiest way to think about the margin impact of this issue is really driven by our utilization and productivity. And given where we're where we are right now with fleet utilization, which takes into account all the Aircraft on Ground that we have today, we're probably missing 7-plus margin points as a result of that, broadly speaking.

當然。因此，我們認為考慮這個問題的利潤影響的最簡單方法實際上是由我們的利用率和生產力所驅動的。考慮到我們目前的機隊利用率（考慮到我們今天擁有的所有地面飛機），從廣義上講，我們可能會因此錯過 7 個以上的利潤點。

Now some of that can be attributed to some of our own restrictions, which we alluded to before about how we're running the airline. But the vast majority of it is because we have AOGs. And so we're going to be obviously in discussions about what the impact it's having on us. And it is unfortunately for us, in the United States, we're really to stand out here. And so it will be an important discussion that we have with the folks at Pratt and RTX. But as I said earlier, we've got a very strong partnership with them. They've always stood by us, and they've always honored their commitments. And we have no reason to expect that would change here.

現在，其中一些可以歸因於我們自己的一些限制，我們之前提到我們如何運營航空公司。但絕大多數是因為我們有 AOG。因此，我們顯然將討論它對我們的影響。不幸的是，對於我們美國來說，我們確實要在這裡脫穎而出。因此，這將是我們與 Pratt 和 RTX 人員進行的重要討論。但正如我之前所說，我們與他們建立了非常牢固的合作關係。他們始終站在我們這邊，也始終信守承諾。我們沒有理由期望這種情況會改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research 的線路。

So I know there's a lot of talk about the shift international in days of week. But if I take a step back, is it just possible that we've now finally surpassed pre-pandemic domestic capacity. At the same time, corporate demand is somewhat diminished from where it was and legacies are forced to just be a little bit more focused on leisure. So there's just too much supply relative to demand for some of the smaller carriers, and we just sort of reached that inflection point possible that's what's just happening right now?

所以我知道有很多關於每週幾天國際班次的討論。但如果退一步說，我們現在是否有可能最終超過了疫情前的國內產能？同時，企業需求較之前減少，遺產被迫更加關注休閒。因此，對於一些較小的運營商來說，相對於需求而言，供應過多，而我們剛剛達到了拐點，這可能是現在正在發生的情況？

Scott. So look, I mean, the nuances of establishing what impacts demand are difficult to arrive at as you would expect. But given what we experienced in the latter part of Q2 and what we're seeing here in Q3, we wouldn't describe it that way. We would describe it as clearly a shift in demand geographically. And so we think that, that move probably costs us 400 basis points on the margin this quarter, and we don't expect that, that will repeat next summer or in the fourth quarter more closely in.

斯科特.所以，我的意思是，確定影響需求的細微差別很難像您所期望的那樣達到。但考慮到我們在第二季後期的經歷以及我們在第三季所看到的情況，我們不會那樣描述它。我們將其明確地描述為需求在地理上的轉變。因此，我們認為，這項舉措可能會讓我們本季的利潤損失 400 個基點，我們預計這種情況不會在明年夏天或更接近的第四季重演。

And so I wouldn't say nothing that we're seeing right now says that we have a noticeable supply-demand imbalance. In fact, if you look at what's been happening over the course of the recovery from the pandemic, unit revenues across the board are up. And admittedly, we're considerably larger, but the industry is only modestly larger, and it would tell you that there's plenty of demand out there. So I don't know that we see data yet. I mean your supposition would say, is it possible?

因此，我不會說我們現在看到的任何事情都表明我們有明顯的供需失衡。事實上，如果你看看從大流行中恢復的過程中發生的事情，你會發現單位收入全面上升。誠然，我們的規模要大得多，但這個行業只是稍微大一點，這會告訴你那裡有大量的需求。所以我不知道我們是否看到了數據。我的意思是你的假設會說，這可能嗎？

I suppose anything is possible, right? But it's entirely possible that right now, there's an artificial lid on demand. because corporate travel hasn't returned and because people are fatigued with the operations that we've all been dealing with over the last 1.5 years. And it becomes exhausting when you sit at an airport and you're delayed 6 hours because of Air Traffic Control initiatives and ground delay programs. So I mean, there's just as much as there's always possibilities that there's changes happening in the demand profile. I think there's just as many that say it's possible that we're seeing some things that are artificially lidding demand.

我想一切皆有可能，對吧？但現在完全有可能按需提供人工蓋子。因為商務旅行還沒有回歸，而且人們對我們在過去 1.5 年裡一直在處理的營運感到厭倦。當您坐在機場，由於空中交通管制措施和地面延誤計劃而延誤 6 小時時，您會感到筋疲力盡。所以我的意思是，需求概況總是有可能會改變。我認為也有很多人說我們可能會看到一些人為限制需求的事情。

So again, we're more focused on what we saw in the second quarter and what we're expecting here in the third, and we think that, that's what's driving the disconnect in our performance.

因此，我們更關注第二季的情況以及第三季的預期，我們認為這就是導致我們業績脫節的原因。

Okay. That makes sense. And then just given the merger and I guess the uncertainty of the merger, how do you plan for capacity growth next year? What are your initial thoughts? And I guess, how much capacity growth you need to have a shot of getting CASM down next year?

好的。這就說得通了。然後考慮到合併以及我猜合併的不確定性，您如何規劃明年的產能成長？您最初的想法是什麼？我猜，明年需要多大的產能成長才能讓 CASM 下降？

Well, the good news is, and Scott can jump in here after I'm done, is that the primary driver of getting the CASM where we wanted to be is getting the productivity of the existing assets to where we want it to be. So that's not necessarily about -- I mean, obviously, that drives growth because utilization will in fact drive growth. But as Scott said, we feel that we would be at that in the fourth quarter, excluding the AOGs with Pratt. That will help us get to our expected more expected kind of CASM trajectory, and that should be a tailwind for us. So looking at 2024, it's a little cloudy right now because we originally thought we had a pretty good beat on what was happening with the fleet. We made the necessary adjustments, which I think were smart. And then, of course, we just received information 2 weeks ago that kind of changes that. So what would you add to that?

好消息是，史考特可以在我講完之後跳到這裡，那就是讓 CASM 達到我們想要的水平的主要驅動力是讓現有資產的生產力達到我們想要的水平。所以這不一定是——我的意思是，顯然，這會推動成長，因為利用率實際上會推動成長。但正如斯科特所說，我們認為我們會在第四季度做到這一點，不包括與普拉特的 AOG。這將幫助我們達到我們預期的更預期的 CASM 軌跡，這對我們來說應該是一個順風。因此，展望 2024 年，現在有點陰雲密布，因為我們最初認為我們對機隊發生的情況有很好的把握。我們做出了必要的調整，我認為這是明智的。當然，我們兩週前剛收到的訊息改變了這一點。那你會添加什麼？

No, I think that's right. So Scott, I think it's about utilization first and foremost for us. I mean we've been running uphill for the last few years trying to catch up to the amount of aircraft we've been delivering. And with the changes in the Airbus delivery stream that we negotiated, I think, put us in a pretty good spot to try to navigate all of the different variables that are moving and let us feel comfortable that we're able to generate margins that will tell us that we should be growing again. I mean we got to earn that right to grow the airline.

不，我認為這是對的。史考特，我認為對我們來說，首先也是最重要的是利用率。我的意思是，過去幾年我們一直在努力趕上我們交付的飛機數量。我認為，隨著我們談判的空中巴士交付流程的變化，我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以嘗試駕馭所有正在變化的不同變量，並讓我們感到放心，我們能夠產生的利潤將告訴我們，我們應該再次成長。我的意思是我們必須贏得發展航空公司的權利。

So we got a return utilization, return margin and cash reduction and then we can start to lean forward. But I think we want to make sure we can digest the capacity. We've taken over the last few years, get utilization to where it is and kind of get our skis underneath us, and then we'll move forward.

因此，我們得到了回報利用率、回報率和現金減少，然後我們就可以開始向前邁進。但我認為我們要確保我們能夠消化產能。我們已經接管了過去幾年的工作，充分利用了現狀，並將滑雪板放在我們下面，然後我們將繼續前進。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker with JPMorgan Chase.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克 (Jamie Baker)。

Thanks for the color on pilot attrition. Just wondering if you have any year-on-year numbers that you could share. Also, is the new contract having the desired effect of increasing applications or is it merely slowing attrition? Either way, it's obviously positive?

感謝您對飛行員減員的關注。只是想知道您是否有任何同比數據可以分享。此外，新合約是否達到了增加申請的預期效果，還是只是減緩了流失？不管怎樣，這顯然是正面的？

Yes, it is positive. And the attrition numbers are stabilizing in ranges that versus where we were at -- we were at peaks. And you'll recall on our Q1 earnings call in April, we alerted that we were seeing some alarming attrition levels. And as a result, we pulled some capacity from the summer. Those ended up being the anomaly. So we're now at levels that are much more akin to what we were experiencing in the early part of this year as a result of the deal and give us confidence that as we move forward, we've reached some stability.

是的，這是積極的。與我們當時的高峰相比，人員流失率正在穩定在一定範圍內。您還記得在四月份的第一季財報電話會議上，我們提醒我們看到了一些令人震驚的人員流失水平。因此，我們從夏季撤出了一些產能。這些最終成為異常現象。因此，我們現在的水平與今年早些時候由於該協議而經歷的情況更加相似，這讓我們相信，隨著我們的前進，我們已經達到了一定的穩定性。

Now I think obviously, a new contract does create stickiness for existing pilots. Our recruiting team is doing a fantastic job at navigating the environment and we're having great success at attracting new pilots as well, full classes every time. And the engagement there is really strong. And as a 1 anecdote. We -- like I said, we've noticed that there have been pilots leaving us and a number of other lower-cost airlines going to the majors. We've now experienced numbers of what we're calling boomerang pilots, where they've left us, gone to another airline and are coming back. And I think it has to do with a mix of, obviously, the contract itself. The quality of life that we offer and the combination of those work-life balance, benefits, pay and the word of mouth is spreading.

現在我認為顯然，新合約確實為現有飛行員創造了粘性。我們的招募團隊在駕馭環境方面做得非常出色，我們在吸引新飛行員方面也取得了巨大成功，每次都滿員。那裡的參與度非常高。作為1個軼事。正如我所說，我們注意到有飛行員離開我們，還有一些其他廉價航空公司前往各大航空公司。我們現在經歷了許多所謂的迴力鏢飛行員，他們離開我們，去了另一家航空公司，然後又回來了。我認為這顯然與合約本身有關。我們提供的生活品質以及工作與生活的平衡、福利、薪資和口碑正在傳播。

So I'm encouraged by all of that. We can't rest on our laurels. We've established new programs that give our pilots much more touch time and concierge-type feel, and it's working. And so for now, that gives us some confidence that it will no longer be the limiter. And it really comes down now to fleet. And so that's how we solve -- that's how we work to solve this problem with Pratt.

所以我對這一切感到鼓舞。我們不能固步自封。我們已經制定了新的計劃，為我們的飛行員提供更多的接觸時間和禮賓式的感覺，而且它正在發揮作用。因此，就目前而言，這讓我們有信心它不再是限制因素。現在真正歸結為機隊。這就是我們解決問題的方式——這就是我們與普拉特一起解決這個問題的方式。

Got it. And that leads into my second question, and this is probably 1 of the most theoretical questions that I've asked you over the years. But if you could choose between the GTF issues completely disappearing tomorrow, gone, or having corporate demand immediately recover for the big 3 and not just to 2019, but back to where it should have been in 2023, which of those would you choose Can't have both, have 1 or the other.

知道了。這就引出了我的第二個問題，這可能是我多年來問過你的最具理論性的問題之一。但是，如果你可以在GTF 問題明天完全消失、消失，還是讓3 巨頭的企業需求立即恢復，而不僅僅是到2019 年，而是回到2023 年應有的水平之間做出選擇，你會選擇哪一個？兩者都具有，具有 1 個或另一個。

Can't have both. Okay. Well, I think my answer would be to have the Pratt issue resolved. We -- It's localized to us. It makes us stand out. We don't like it, neither do they, by the way. And it's crimping what drives this business, which is productivity and low cost. So you're right that having another demand funnel open up would be good for the broader industry. And I couldn't argue that, that wouldn't help the whole industry a little bit. But when thinking first specifically about us, I would feel better about having our house in order and our fleet where we want it.

不能兩者兼得。好的。好吧，我想我的答案是解決普拉特問題。我們——它是針對我們本地化的。它讓我們脫穎而出。順便說一句，我們不喜歡它，他們也不喜歡。它限制了推動這項業務的因素，即生產力和低成本。所以你是對的，打開另一個需求管道對更廣泛的行業是有好處的。我不能否認，這對整個產業沒有一點幫助。但當首先具體考慮我們時，如果我們的房子井然有序，我們的車隊在我們想要的地方，我會感覺更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Stephen Trent。

Just quickly, I was wondering -- I was intrigued by what you said about Cancun. On your Mexico flow, have you actually seen, over the last year or so, any tailwinds in terms of cross-border demand considering that the FAA has not restored Mexico's Category 1 aviation safety rating and (inaudible) variables are not linked up yet, et cetera. Just wondering if that's created any opportunities for you?

很快，我就想知道──我對你所說的坎昆的情況很感興趣。在墨西哥的流程中，考慮到美國聯邦航空局尚未恢復墨西哥的1 類航空安全評級並且（聽不清）變量尚未掛鉤，在過去一年左右的時間裡，您是否真正看到了跨境需求方面的任何順風車？等等。只是想知道這是否為您創造了任何機會？

Stephen, it's Matt. So we have added a little bit more in Mexico overall. We haven't really seen a lot of the cross-border sales benefit that you're discussing or, I guess, asked about. Almost all of our Mexico demand is point of origin in United States. And believe me, well, I'd tell you that I wish we saw more coming out of Mexico. It's the vast, vast, vast majority for us is a point of origin U.S.

史蒂芬，是馬特。因此，我們在墨西哥總體上增加了一些。我們還沒有真正看到您正在討論或我想問過的跨境銷售好處。我們幾乎所有的墨西哥需求都來自美國。相信我，好吧，我會告訴你，我希望我們看到更多來自墨西哥的產品。對我們來說，絕大多數都是美國的原產地。

Great. I appreciate that, Matt. And just very quickly, when you look at the challenges, I mean, not just you guys, everybody with Air Traffic Control and the other issues out there were storms. Any high-level view with respect to longer-term strategy of maybe doing more with crew bases in certain regions versus today?

偉大的。我很感激，馬特。很快，當你看到這些挑戰時，我的意思是，不僅僅是你們，每個與空中交通管制和其他問題有關的人都是風暴。對於長期戰略，與今天相比，可能對某些地區的船員基地做更多的事情，高層有何看法？

Sure, Stephen. So you're right. I mean the whole industry has been very vocal about the challenges we face, and I know weather is a driver of that. And it's certainly appears to be noticeable that there has been a shift in the weather patterns. But we don't believe that the weather patterns really fully account for the changes and what we're experiencing from a level of disruption, delay in cancellation. And let me give you like an interesting data point. So pre-pandemic, in the second quarter of 2019, Spirit canceled about 700 flights, poor weather.

當然，史蒂芬。所以你是對的。我的意思是，整個行業都對我們面臨的挑戰直言不諱，我知道天氣是其中的一個驅動因素。天氣模式的變化顯然是顯而易見的。但我們認為天氣模式並不能真正完全解釋這些變化以及我們所經歷的干擾程度、取消延遲。讓我給你一個有趣的數據點。所以在疫情爆發之前，2019年第二季度，精神航空取消了約700個航班，天氣惡劣。

And if you'll recall, which you may not, but in the very early part of this -- of the second quarter of 2019, we had a very difficult Easter period because of a storm pattern that moved through Florida. It was very noticeable and it turns out it was the first indication of some of the challenges that the JAK Center control center was having.

如果你還記得的話，你可能不記得了，但在 2019 年第二季的早期階段，由於一場風暴席捲了佛羅裡達州，我們經歷了一個非常困難的復活節時期。這是非常引人注目的，事實證明這是 JAK 中心控制中心面臨的一些挑戰的第一個跡象。

So we're about 30% bigger today than we were in 2019. So we should have expected to see around 900 to 1,000 cancellations in the second quarter of this year. Instead, we canceled 1,700 flights. So weather alone doesn't describe what's happening. What's happening is that the staffing shortages at the variety of different control centers throughout the U.S., which has been widely publicized, are limiting their ability to navigate the airlines around the challenges, and it's putting us into a real bind.

因此，今天的訂單量比 2019 年增加了約 30%。因此，我們應該預計今年第二季會有 900 到 1,000 起取消訂單。相反，我們取消了 1,700 個航班。因此，僅靠天氣並不能描述正在發生的事情。正在發生的事情是，美國各地不同控制中心的人員短缺已經被廣泛報道，這限制了他們引導航空公司應對挑戰的能力，這讓我們陷入了真正的困境。

So what we're trying to do and what we've done over the course of the last couple of years is we've done exactly what you suggested. We've put significantly more investment into things that previously were just easier to run. So adding crew bases has turned out to be 1 of the bigger wins for us, in fact. And we've added -- since 2019, I think we've added maybe 4 or 5 crew bases. So it's been a noticeable shift, and that's helped the scheduling team create a little bit more ease of recovery. And that's just 1 example of a variety of different things that we've done to insert buffer to create recoverability. We've reduced the average line days for our crews, they used to go out on average around 4 days and now they go on average around 2 days, and that makes it easier to recover there.

因此，我們正在努力做的事情以及我們在過去幾年中所做的事情就是我們完全按照您的建議做了。我們對以前更容易運行的事情投入了更多的投資。因此，事實證明，增加船員基地對我們來說是更大的勝利之一。自 2019 年以來，我們已經增加了大約 4 或 5 個機組人員基地。所以這是一個明顯的轉變，這有助於調度團隊更輕鬆地恢復。這只是我們為插入緩衝區以創建可恢復性所做的各種不同操作的範例之一。我們減少了工作人員的平均排隊天數，他們過去平均外出 4 天左右，現在平均外出 2 天左右，這使得他們更容易在那裡恢復。

All of this is intended to make the operation easier to recover and more reliable, but it doesn't come for free. And so we, like the other airlines are doing our best to lobby with the Department of Transportation and the FAA to put the necessary infrastructure in place in the air traffic control system so we can start to run more efficiently, which will drive lower cost and lower fares, which is really the best answer for the country.

所有這些都是為了使操作更容易恢復且更可靠，但它並不是免費的。因此，像其他航空公司一樣，我們正在盡最大努力遊說交通部和美國聯邦航空局，以便在空中交通管制系統中建立必要的基礎設施，以便我們能夠開始更有效率地運行，這將推動更低的成本和降低票價，這確實是國家最好的答案。

Your next question comes from the line of Helane Becker with TD Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Helane Becker 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

This is Tom Fitzgerald on for Helane. First question looks like you're growing a lot in the third quarter in Phoenix, Charlotte and Los Angeles. I just wanted to get -- just curious if you had any color on those markets in particular. And then just as a follow-up, just a quick modeling question. I know the base case assumption seems to be that the regional shift in -- the regional demand mix will shift back to something more normal in the fourth quarter. Are you -- pre-COVID, you'd usually 4Q revenue would decline a little bit sequentially versus the third. Last year was up. Is it just from a high level, would you expect it to feel like last year it would be slightly up versus the third quarter or still down a little bit. I'm just -- just appreciate any color there.

我是湯姆·菲茨傑拉德為海蘭配音。第一個問題看起來你在第三季在鳳凰城、夏洛特和洛杉磯成長了很多。我只是想知道——只是好奇你們在這些市場上是否有什麼特別的顏色。然後作為後續，只是一個快速建模問題。我知道基本情況假設似乎是區域需求組合將在第四季度恢復到更正常的狀態。在新冠疫情爆發之前，您通常會認為第四季的收入會比第三季略有下降。去年已經到了。如果只是從高水準來看，您是否認為去年的情況會比第三季略有上升，或者仍然略有下降。我只是——只是欣賞那裡的任何顏色。

Tom, it's Matt. So your first question regarding Phoenix, Charlotte and Los Angeles. We have seen pretty good success in these cities which is why you're seeing the growth there. We did pick up an extra gate in Charlotte, and we've also picked up extra gates in Los Angeles, and we're utilizing them. That's what we do. And we've seen growth -- our own growth in Los Angeles has been very effective for us. It's helped build out our presence out on the West Coast a little bit more. It makes us more relevant in general in Los Angeles, which then helps the overall Los Angeles revenue generation and brand awareness out there. And Phoenix is just another leisure destination in the country that it's time for us to start doing a little bit more work there, really.

湯姆，這是馬特。你的第一個問題是關於鳳凰城、夏洛特和洛杉磯的。我們在這些城市看到了相當大的成功，這就是為什麼你會看到那裡的成長。我們確實在夏洛特增加了一個登機口，在洛杉磯也增加了一個登機口，我們正在利用它們。這就是我們所做的。我們已經看到了成長——我們在洛杉磯的成長對我們來說非常有效。這有助於進一步擴大我們在西海岸的影響力。它使我們在洛杉磯整體上更具相關性，從而有助於洛杉磯的整體收入和品牌知名度。鳳凰城只是這個國家的另一個休閒目的地，我們真的是時候開始在那裡做更多的工作了。

And then in terms of Q4 versus Q3, the answer would be, generally, yes, we'd expect to see trends that you mentioned kind of continue out there. So we would expect to see that kind of growth in Q4.

然後就第四季度與第三季度而言，答案通常是，是的，我們預計會看到您提到的趨勢繼續存在。因此，我們預計第四季會出現這種成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Two questions here. I just -- I want to go back to maybe Scott and Jamie's question just about the big 3 and the fact that corporate is down and they've been allocating more assets into leisure markets. And I'm really curious though, like how much of the capacity or markets that you're in where you've seen other low-fare carriers adding capacity and whether or not you sort of have a sense of sort of versus 2019, how much in your markets low-fare competition or capacity is up because it does seem like when you look at a lot of the different route changes that have made of late, it does seem like a lot of the low fare carriers are all targeting the same markets and in many cases, they are going after the same customer. How much of that is a factor or maybe it's not, maybe it's not much of a factor. I'm just curious about your take on that.

這裡有兩個問題。我只是——我想回到斯科特和傑米關於三大巨頭的問題，以及企業正在衰落的事實，他們一直在向休閒市場配置更多資產。不過，我真的很好奇，例如你看到其他低票價航空公司增加了運力，你所在的運力或市場有多少，以及你是否有一種與 2019 年相比的感覺，如何在你的市場中，低票價競爭或運力增加了，因為當你看到最近做出的許多不同的航線變化時，看起來確實很多低票價航空公司都瞄準了相同的目標市場，並且在許多情況下，他們追求的是同一個客戶。其中有多少是一個因素，也許不是，也許不是一個重要因素。我只是好奇你對此的看法。

Sure, Mike. It's Matt. I'll try to tackle that one. So we have seen from pre-COVID really until now. Our overlap has generally been the same across the industry with a couple of exceptions. One is one is, as you just noted, our non-stop overlaps with Frontier have increased a bit. But with Southwest, we've gone down. So kind of a trade-off there amongst, I guess, you'd say, low-fare carriers. And overall, we -- generally speaking, we -- of course, when we decide where to fly and how we pick routes and pick new cities, we're evaluating the overall landscape, and we're evaluating what's going on in general, and we do take into account who is already operating in certain routes because as we put together our forecast, we have a lot of history in understanding how we think the routes will perform and the competitive dynamics, while different city to city generally can help us predict what we think outcomes will be.

當然，麥克。是馬特。我會盡力解決這個問題。所以我們從新冠疫情爆發前到現在都看到了這一點。除了一些例外，我們在整個行業中的重疊部分通常是相同的。一是，正如您剛才指出的，我們與 Frontier 的不間斷重疊有所增加。但對西南航空來說，我們已經走下坡了。我想，你可能會說，低價航空公司之間存在著一種權衡。總的來說，我們——一般來說，我們——當然，當我們決定飛往哪裡以及如何選擇航線和選擇新城市時，我們正在評估整體情況，我們正在評估總體情況，我們確實考慮了誰已經在某些航線上運營，因為當我們匯總預測時，我們有很多歷史記錄來了解我們認為這些航線的表現和競爭動態，而不同的城市通常可以幫助我們預測我們認為結果會是什麼。

So having said all that, in a normal environment, routes that we can target domestically not to sound a little bit arrogant about it, but a lot of times, it doesn't matter who's already there if our forecast play out and we think that we're going to grow markets, which is what we do. It generally doesn't turn into a big issue. The issue that we're seeing right now is with this move towards international long-haul traffic. Some of the competition right now inside the U.S. is competing for what might be lower demand profile than what we were all probably anticipating, at least we were anticipating a different demand profile this summer.

話雖如此，在正常環境下，我們可以在國內瞄準的航線聽起來有點傲慢，但很多時候，如果我們的預測發生，誰已經在那裡並不重要，而且我們認為我們將擴大市場，這就是我們所做的。一般不會變成大問題。我們現在看到的問題是國際長途流量的發展。目前美國國內的一些競爭正在爭奪可能低於我們所有人預期的需求狀況，至少我們預計今年夏天的需求狀況會有所不同。

So generally, I think, to answer your question is even though we do see competition and we are growing on top of other people and just like they are on top of us from time to time, generally hasn't been an issue for us. This summer, we feel is incredibly unique that we're seeing some of these impacts. And as we noted, we expect this to flip back as we get into the fall and the peak holiday periods when just in general, customers just take shorter trips and they're looking to stay more state side. And we expect that will then turn back into the normal demand patterns that we're used to all seeing.

因此，我認為，總的來說，回答你的問題是，儘管我們確實看到了競爭，而且我們在其他人之上成長，就像他們時不時地在我們之上一樣，但通常對我們來說並不是問題。今年夏天，我們看到了其中一些影響，感覺非常獨特。正如我們所指出的，我們預計隨著秋季和假期高峰期的到來，這種情況將會逆轉，一般來說，客戶只會進行較短的旅行，並且他們希望更多地留在州內。我們預計這將恢復到我們所見的正常需求模式。

Okay. Great. Good answer. And then just second, more of a modeling question. You obviously, a lot of moving parts here with the GTX -- the GTF issue. How should we think about 4Q capacity, your sort of revised capacity number for 2023 and then what does that mean for 2024, especially since you've cut back your deliveries for next year, just rough numbers since I know it's early?

好的。偉大的。好答案。其次，更多的是一個建模問題。顯然，GTX 有很多移動部件——GTF 問題。我們該如何考慮第四季的產能，你們修改後的2023 年產能數字，然後這對2024 年意味著什麼，特別是因為你們削減了明年的交付量，只是粗略的數字，因為我知道現在還為時過早？

Yes Mike, this is Scott. I'll take a stab and then Matt can opine too. So looking at sort of the move between second, third and fourth with the reductions that we've had from the GTF, the new GTF issues, probably looking at -- you probably have a slight reduction in Q3. But with the increase in utilization, we would expect Q4 to be a good bit higher than Q3. We haven't finalized the exact capacity schedule for Q4, but I would expect somewhat material move north in capacity.

是的，麥克，這是史考特。我會嘗試一下，然後馬特也可以發表意見。因此，看看第二、第三和第四之間的變化，以及我們從 GTF 中獲得的減少，新的 GTF 問題，可能會看到 - 第三季度可能會略有減少。但隨著利用率的增加，我們預計第四季將比第三季高出一些。我們尚未最終確定第四季度的確切產能計劃，但我預計產能將有所增加。

And thinking about '24, I mean, obviously, the news is fresh on the additional GTF issues. So it's hard to predict where 2024 will look like. But I did mention in the prepared remarks that with the moves we made with Airbus, we expect it to be in the high teens. So the expectation is a lot of that growth will be muted by the engine issues. Hard to know if we're going to be in the single digits or flat or low teens, hard to tell at this point, but my guess would be somewhere in the single digits for '24.

想想 '24，我的意思是，顯然，關於其他 GTF 問題的新聞是新鮮的。因此很難預測 2024 年會是什麼樣子。但我在準備好的發言中確實提到，隨著我們與空中巴士採取的行動，我們預計這一數字將達到十幾歲。因此，預計大部分增長將因引擎問題而減弱。很難知道我們是否會達到個位數、持平或低十幾歲，目前很難說，但我的猜測是 24 年會達到個位數。

And 1 other -- one other point that I'll make, Mike, for the fourth quarter, and I said it in my prepared remarks, Pratt had indicated that we were going to see up to 13 engines in this initial allotment. And given the tight time frame and that it was effective -- the inspections would be effective in September, we pulled 7 aircraft out of service for the month.

另外，麥克，我將在第四季度提出另一點，我在準備好的發言中說過，普拉特表示我們將在最初的分配中看到多達 13 台發動機。考慮到時間緊迫且有效——檢查將於 9 月生效，我們在本月停飛了 7 架飛機。

However, they're continuing to refine the universe of engines, and it's entirely possible that we may see some benefit associated with that, which means that our exposure in the initial allotment of 200 could go down. And then that's true that would give us more opportunity in October, November and December with productive airplanes. And given that what we've just talked about with pilots, we definitely have those available ready to fly. So we don't know yet. It's all kind of in the soup, and we're just going to have to update you as we learn more over the course of the next month.

然而，他們正在繼續完善引擎領域，我們完全有可能看到與此相關的一些好處，這意味著我們在最初分配的 200 個引擎中的風險可能會下降。確實如此，這將為我們在 10 月、11 月和 12 月提供更多生產高效飛機的機會。鑑於我們剛剛與飛行員討論過的內容，我們肯定已經準備好飛行。所以我們還不知道。這一切都在湯裡，當我們在下個月了解更多時，我們將不得不向您通報最新情況。

Adam, do we have any other calls or questions?

Adam，我們還有其他電話或問題嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

Picking up on that last point, the uncertainty around 2024 is pretty understandable. But going back to the script and the need to slow down growth and derisk the business, has your thoughts about growth beyond 2024, also they've also moderated. How should we think about growth longer term?

考慮到最後一點，2024 年左右的不確定性是可以理解的。但回到劇本，需要放慢成長速度並消除業務風險，您對 2024 年後的成長有什麼想法，而且它們也有所放緩。我們該如何思考長期成長？

Well, I can start. And Scott alluded to some of these changes in the script. We still see a sizable opportunity. So that hasn't changed. I think what we're alluding to as far as the near term is that we continue to grow pretty notably on a fleet basis throughout the course of the pandemic and haven't been able to use them. We just haven't been able to get the utilization where we wanted it to be. So taking a chance to digest those airplanes and get them up in the air and efficient will help the unit cost story, which helps the margin story. So the work that Scott and the treasury team did with Airbus was a cooperative effort between ourselves and the manufacturer to smooth out deliveries, give us more certainty into the latter part of this decade where airplanes are going to be very, very difficult to get your hands on and allow us to use the lessor community to supplement that 1 and if we feel like it's necessary.

好吧，我可以開始了。斯科特提到了劇本中的一些變化。我們仍然看到了相當大的機會。所以這並沒有改變。我認為，就近期而言，我們所暗示的是，在整個大流行期間，我們的機隊數量繼續顯著增長，但無法使用它們。我們只是無法達到我們想要的利用率。因此，抓住機會消化這些飛機並讓它們高效地升空將有助於單位成本故事，這有助於利潤故事。因此，史考特和財務團隊與空中巴士所做的工作是我們與製造商之間的合作努力，以順利交付，讓我們更加確定在本十年的後半段，飛機將非常非常難以獲得如果我們認為有必要的話，請親自動手並允許我們利用出租人社區來補充這一點。

So there's a lot of moving parts in our fleet as is true for every airline. We're retiring 319s right now. We're going to get pretty close over the next 5 or 6 years to the oldest 320s, believe it or not in our fleet and starting to have to think about what happens with those and whether or not we keep those around. So there's ups and downs that we'll deal with, but the opportunity itself still hasn't changed for us. So it's just a question of pacing and that sort of thing.

因此，我們的機隊中有很多移動部件，就像每家航空公司一樣。我們現在即將退役 319。無論您相信與否，我們將在未來 5 或 6 年內非常接近最古老的 320 飛機，並開始考慮這些飛機會發生什麼以及我們是否保留它們。因此，我們會遇到起起落落，但機會本身對我們來說仍然沒有改變。所以這只是節奏之類的問題。

No, I think that's right. I think we smoothed out the delivery stream. So prior to this adjustment, we were having some peaks and troughs that were pretty material. So this allowed us to smooth it out, give us a predictable base and allow us to, as I mentioned earlier, to sort of earn our way into the growth profile again. And we'll use the lessor community like Ted said, give us some flexibility we have some ability to extend and or retire early additional aircraft. So this gives us a good base to maneuver with as we think about opportunity for us to continue to grow. And so what was the best fleet mix and platform for us to do that. And I think we set ourselves up well for that.

不，我認為這是對的。我認為我們理順了交付流程。因此，在這次調整之前，我們遇到了一些非常重要的波峰和波谷。因此，這使我們能夠順利進行，為我們提供了一個可預測的基礎，並使我們能夠，正如我之前提到的，再次進入成長狀況。我們將像特德所說的那樣利用出租人社區，給我們一些靈活性，我們有能力延長和/或提前退役額外的飛機。因此，當我們考慮繼續發展的機會時，這為我們提供了良好的操作基礎。那麼最適合我們實現這目標的機隊組合和平台是什麼呢？我認為我們為此做好了充分準備。

Okay. I guess just in terms of an actual growth rate, are we thinking that longer-term target -- that growth target is still, call it, low double digits? Or does it mid-double digits? Any sort of perspective around that?

好的。我想就實際成長率而言，我們是否認為長期目標——成長目標仍然是低兩位數？還是兩位數中位數？對此有何看法？

Well, if you just, I think, mathematically roll out the airplanes, it's less than that now. Certainly, as you get bigger, into the future. And that's why I say, I think we're evaluating the pace of things. Scott said it earlier, I think it was a great point. We have to earn our right to deliver the capacity and getting back to full efficiency and starting to deliver the margins we believe that we can is our first step.

好吧，我認為，如果你只是從數學上推出飛機，它會比現在少。當然，隨著你變得更大，走向未來。這就是為什麼我說，我認為我們正在評估事情的節奏。斯科特早些時候說過，我認為這是一個很好的觀點。我們必須贏得提供產能的權利，恢復充分的效率，並開始提供我們相信我們可以做到的利潤，這是我們的第一步。

So this was a good idea to kind of for a lot of reasons, to smooth things out for ourselves and gives us a chance to kind of prove all of that, and we have the right team here to execute to it, but we need to get the job done. And I think that's what this kind of recent modification allows us to do.

因此，出於多種原因，這是一個好主意，可以讓我們自己順利解決問題，並給我們一個機會來證明所有這一切，我們有合適的團隊來執行它，但我們需要把事做好。我認為這就是最近的修改允許我們做的事情。

Yes. I think the point there too is that the growth is not an isolated objective, right? We need the returns to be able to justify it. And so while we think that will be the case, we do need to make sure that we're doing that before we deploy the capital. And so I think that's just prudent management for us to sort of see the game film first.

是的。我認為重點還在於，成長並不是一個孤立的目標，對吧？我們需要回報來證明它的合理性。因此，雖然我們認為情況會是這樣，但我們確實需要確保在部署資本之前我們正在這樣做。所以我認為，讓我們先看遊戲影片是一種謹慎的管理。

And we haven't commented a lot on the pending transaction with JetBlue. But as you can see from the results that have happened across the industry really here, the dominant oligarchs are outperforming the rest of the industry and that's not an accident. When you control that much capacity, it's very difficult to compete, especially with the diversity of revenue sources, the strength of their loyalty programs, the strength of their credit card programs. We do our best to fight that every day with low cost and low fares, but you can just see from the numbers. And we think the best answer for competition is to create a fifth alternative.

我們還沒有對與捷藍航空的待處理交易發表太多評論。但正如你從整個行業實際發生的結果中看到的那樣，占主導地位的寡頭的表現優於行業的其他公司，這並非偶然。當你控制這麼多容量時，就很難競爭，特別是考慮到收入來源的多樣性、忠誠度計劃的實力、信用卡計劃的實力。我們每天都盡最大努力以低成本和低票價來對抗這一點，但你可以從數字中看到。我們認為競爭的最佳答案是創造第五個選擇。

And clearly, with that engine, there's going to be unique growth opportunities. And that's the case we intend to make -- and I think that's going to be the best answer. If it doesn't work and we're stand-alone, we still feel good about our prospects. But it's not to say that the recent experience hasn't shown that there are some challenges out there. And I think we're just doing what we would -- you would expect us to do as management, which is to be a little bit prudent, make sure we're pursuing the growth in the right way.

顯然，有了這個引擎，將會有獨特的成長機會。這就是我們打算做的事情——我認為這將是最好的答案。如果它不起作用並且我們是獨立的，我們仍然對我們的前景感到滿意。但這並不是說最近的經驗沒有表明存在一些挑戰。我認為我們只是在做我們想做的事——你會期望我們作為管理層做的事情，那就是要謹慎一點，確保我們以正確的方式追求成長。

Yes. Perfect. Second question here, this idea of an artificial lid on demand that you shared due to ATC issues. Is the thought that, that will persist until 2025 when the ATC is expected to be fully staffed? Or I guess, is it just more temporary just sort of tied to some issues today because it's so severely understaffed?

是的。完美的。第二個問題是，由於 ATC 問題，您分享了人為限制點播的想法。這種想法是否會持續到 2025 年，屆時 ATC 預計將配備齊全？或者我猜，這只是暫時的，只是與今天的一些問題有關，因為人手嚴重不足？

Well, admittedly, I'm speaking purely on speculation and anecdote, but I've experienced it. So having flown -- I fly a lot, and it can be frustrating when you're stuck at an airport for 3, 4, 5, 6 hours because of ground delays and all the things happening. And I think that may be making -- people make different buying decisions. And so I don't know how long that persists. Clearly, during the summer, it's at its peak. We don't anticipate that during the fall or the winter where actually it's a little bit easier to operate, we're going to see that type of frustration. I think it happens a lot during this period, which is when everyone is traveling and the weather is bad.

好吧，誠然，我純粹是在猜測和軼事，但我經歷過。所以，我坐過很多次飛機，當你因為地面延誤和所有發生的事情而在機場滯留 3、4、5、6 個小時時，你可能會感到沮喪。我認為這可能會導致人們做出不同的購買決定。所以我不知道這種情況會持續多久。顯然，在夏季，它正處於高峰期。我們預計，在實際上操作起來更容易的秋季或冬季，我們不會看到這種類型的挫折感。我想這種情況在這個時期經常發生，當時大家都在旅行，而且天氣不好。

But I think it's just a theoretical impact that I can tell you that first person experience, I've witnessed, and it's very -- you can understand how people might say, you know what, I may not add that third trip to go see my family because I just can't afford to spend 9 hours back and forth waiting.

但我認為這只是一個理論上的影響，我可以告訴你，我親眼目睹的第一人稱體驗，你可以理解人們會怎麼說，你知道嗎，我可能不會添加第三次去看看我的家人因為我無法承受9 小時的來回等待。

Your final question comes from the line of Savi Syth it with Raymond James.

你的最後一個問題來自 Savi Syth 和 Raymond James 的對話。

Just bit of a follow-up in terms of your thinking of 2024, but more so from how much of that pre GTF, like when you were thinking of high teens, how much of that growth was going to come from utilization? I'm just trying to think about as you're exiting this year and going into next year, you might not need as many kind of training and hiring costs and your utilization improves. So that should be a pretty good tailwind, but I'm trying to just quantify that a little bit more.

這只是您對 2024 年的想法的後續行動，但更重要的是，從 GTF 之前的情況來看，就像您考慮青少年時一樣，有多少增長將來自利用率？我只是想考慮一下，當您今年退出並進入明年時，您可能不需要那麼多的培訓和招聘成本，並且您的利用率會提高。所以這應該是一個很好的推動力，但我正在嘗試進一步量化這一點。

Yes. Savi, this is Scott. Yes, I think you're spot on with some of that. As we thought about the high teens, it's really made up of really 3 things. And they're both probably in the 5 to 7 points worth of move. But we'll probably grow the fleet about 5 points. In '24, you have utilization move year-over-year, which is probably 5 to 7 points worth of impact. And we have average seats for everyone. And that's probably another 5-plus points. And so that gets you in the high teens. And so your point is right, really 2 of those are less impacted by pilots.

是的。薩維，這是斯科特。是的，我認為你在其中一些方面是正確的。當我們想到高中青少年時，它實際上是由三件事組成的。他們的分差可能都在 5 到 7 分之內。但我們可能會將機隊增加約 5 個百分點。在 24 年，利用率逐年變化，這可能會產生 5 到 7 個百分點的影響。我們為每個人提供平均座位。這可能是另外 5 個多點。這樣你就進入青少年時期了。所以你的觀點是對的，實際上其中兩個受飛行員的影響較小。

But I think we're -- we feel good about our pipeline. We've talked about that before, no longer pilot constrained. So now this is just getting the airline humming again. So I think we're in a good spot. Unfortunately, we do have to deal with the next batch of GTF issues, but we feel comfortable about the core part of the airline.

但我認為我們對我們的管道感覺良好。我們之前已經討論過這一點，不再對飛行員進行限制。所以現在這只是讓航空公司再次熱鬧起來。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。不幸的是，我們確實必須處理下一批 GTF 問題，但我們對航空公司的核心部分感到滿意。

Regarding the GTF and like if you do get settled -- the make-whole, how does that flow through the P&L? Is that a special item and it helps your cash? Or how does that kind of flow through?

關於 GTF 以及如果你確實安頓下來的話——整體而言，它如何流經損益表？這是一個特殊的物品，它可以幫助你賺錢嗎？或者說這種方式是如何流動的？

Yes, Savi, we're early in the discussions around what that might look like. So difficult to say. It could take a few different forms over different lengths of time. So we would have to figure out what the accounting would be based on the vehicle. But we'll let you know when that materializes.

是的，薩維，我們正在早期討論這可能會是什麼樣子。很難說。它可以在不同的時間長度內採取幾種不同的形式。因此，我們必須弄清楚根據車輛進行會計處理的方式。但我們會在具體實現時通知您。

I will now turn the call back over to Vivian Tavarez for closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉回給維維安·塔瓦雷斯 (Vivian Tavarez) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you all for joining us and for your participation today. Please contact Investor or Media Relations if you have any further questions. We look forward to talking to you soon. Have a great day.

感謝大家今天加入我們並參與其中。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者或媒體關係部門。我們期待盡快與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。