SAP SE (SAP) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the SAP Quarter 4 and Full Year 2018 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stefan Gruber, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 SAP 第 4 季度和 2018 年全年電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Stefan Gruber 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you very much. Good morning or afternoon, this is Stefan Gruber, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us to discuss our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2018. I'm joined by our CEO, Bill McDermott; and Luka Mucic, our CFO, who will both make opening remarks on the call today. Also joining us for Q&A, our board members, Jennifer Morgan and Adaire Fox-Martin, who together run our Global Customer Organization; Rob Enslin, who runs Cloud Business Group; and Christian Klein, who leads Intelligence Enterprise Group.

非常感謝。早上好或下午好，我是投資者關係主管 Stefan Gruber。感謝您加入我們討論我們 2018 年第四季度和全年的業績。我們的首席執行官 Bill McDermott 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Luka Mucic，他們都將在今天的電話會議上發表開場白。我們的董事會成員 Jennifer Morgan 和 Adaire Fox-Martin 也加入了我們的問答環節，他們共同管理著我們的全球客戶組織；負責 Cloud Business Group 的 Rob Enslin；以及 Intelligence Enterprise Group 的負責人 Christian Klein。

Before we get started, as usual, I want to say a few words about forward-looking statements and our use of non-IFRS financial measures. Any statements made during this call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, forecast, intend, may, plan, project, predict, should, outlook and will and similar expressions, as they relate to SAP are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. SAP undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The factors that could affect our future financial results are discussed more fully in SAP's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, including SAP's annual report on Form 20-F for 2017, filed with the SEC on February 28, 2018.

在我們開始之前，像往常一樣，我想就前瞻性陳述和我們使用非 IFRS 財務措施說幾句話。根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的定義，本次電話會議期間作出的任何非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。與 SAP 相關的諸如預期、相信、估計、預期、預測、打算、可能、計劃、項目、預測、應該、展望和意願等詞語以及類似表達旨在識別此類前瞻性陳述。SAP 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。所有前瞻性陳述都受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異。可能影響我們未來財務業績的因素在 SAP 提交給美國證券交易委員會 SEC 的文件中進行了更全面的討論，包括 SAP 於 2018 年 2 月 28 日提交給 SEC 的 2017 年 20-F 表格年度報告。

Participants of this call are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates. On our Investor Relations website, you can find our quarterly statement and the financial summary slide deck, which are intended to supplement our prepared remarks today, include a reconciliation from non-IFRS numbers to IFRS numbers. Unless otherwise noted, all financial numbers referred to on this conference call are non-IFRS and growth rates and percentage point changes are non-IFRS constant currency year-over-year. The non-IFRS financial measures we provide should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

提醒本次電話會議的參與者不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅代表截至日期。在我們的投資者關係網站上，您可以找到我們的季度報表和財務摘要幻燈片，它們旨在補充我們今天準備好的評論，包括從非 IFRS 數字到 IFRS 數字的對賬。除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議中提及的所有財務數據均為非 IFRS，增長率和百分比變化均為非 IFRS 固定貨幣同比。我們提供的非 IFRS 財務指標不應被視為替代或優於根據 IFRS 編制的財務業績指標。

And finally, we're looking forward to welcoming you to the New York Stock Exchange on February 7, 2019, which is next week, for our Capital Markets Day. Our senior executives will discuss our strategy, gross drivers and some of our customers will share their experience with SAP. We're looking forward to seeing you again in New York city.

最後，我們期待著歡迎您於 2019 年 2 月 7 日，也就是下週，來到紐約證券交易所，參加我們的資本市場日。我們的高級管理人員將討論我們的戰略、總體驅動因素，我們的一些客戶將分享他們與 SAP 的經驗。我們期待在紐約市再次見到您。

With that I turn things over to our CEO, Bill McDermott.

有了這個，我把事情交給我們的首席執行官比爾麥克德莫特。

Thank you very much, Stefan, and hello, everyone. I hope you're doing well. What a quarter, what a year. In our 47th year and beginning my 10th as CEO, there's been one constant. It's all been about pride in engineering and empathy for the customer. Since 2010, we've doubled or nearly tripled our addressable market, revenue and operating income. Not to mention, SAP is now the fastest-growing cloud company at scale in the business software industry. The true measure of a company goes beyond financial metrics alone. 93% of our employees are proud to work for SAP, our colleagues volunteer to 0.25 million hours and touched 4 million lives in 2018 alone. While growing the entire size of the company by 10%, we beat our ambition to shrink our carbon footprint by nearly 5%. Among many others, these make me proud to report that SAP is a strong, sustainable, profitable growth company. You've heard me say trifecta in past quarters to describe our growth in 3 key areas. Well, last year, SAP delivered double-digit growth in 5 key pillars of our business. You could call it our pentafecta. I'm going to give you a few stats from Q4 and the full year. Cloud revenue grew 40% in Q4 and 38% for the full year. Cloud and software revenue, up 11% in Q4; 10% for the full year. Cloud and software new order entry, up 18% in Q4; 14% for the full year. Total revenue, 13% in Q4 and plus 11% for the full year. Our operating profit was also up an impressive 10% for the full year. As you know, SAP raised our guidance on multiple occasions in 2018 and with these results, we hit or exceeded all of those raised metrics. Our customers, employees, partners and products are in total alignment to deliver the intelligent enterprise. By any measure, 2018 was a major success for the company. Our commitment for 2019 is the best of our best, once again.

非常感謝 Stefan，大家好。我希望你過得很好。什麼季度，什麼一年。在我們第 47 個年頭和我擔任 CEO 的第 10 個年頭，有一個不變的東西。這一切都是關於對工程的自豪感和對客戶的同情。自 2010 年以來，我們的目標市場、收入和營業收入已經翻了一番或接近三倍。更不用說，SAP 現在是商業軟件行業規模增長最快的雲公司。衡量一家公司的真正標準不僅僅是財務指標。我們 93% 的員工為在 SAP 工作而感到自豪，僅在 2018 年，我們的同事就志願服務了 25 萬小時，觸及了 400 萬人的生命。在將公司整體規模擴大 10% 的同時，我們實現了將碳足跡縮小近 5% 的目標。除其他外，這些讓我自豪地宣布 SAP 是一家強大、可持續、盈利的成長型公司。你聽我說過去幾個季度的三重奏來描述我們在 3 個關鍵領域的增長。好吧，去年，SAP 在我們業務的 5 個關鍵支柱上實現了兩位數的增長。你可以稱它為我們的 pentafecta。我將為您提供第四季度和全年的一些統計數據。雲收入在第四季度增長了 40%，全年增長了 38%。雲和軟件收入，第四季度增長 11%；全年 10%。雲和軟件新訂單進入，第四季度增長18%；全年 14%。總收入，第四季度增長 13%，全年增長 11%。我們全年的營業利潤也增長了 10%，令人印象深刻。如您所知，SAP 在 2018 年多次提高了我們的指導意見，根據這些結果，我們達到或超過了所有這些提高的指標。我們的客戶、員工、合作夥伴和產品完全一致，以交付智能企業。無論以何種標準衡量，2018 年對公司來說都是巨大的成功。我們對 2019 年的承諾是我們最好的，再一次。

We continue to move the company where our customers need us to go. If you look at the macro environment right now, SAP's strategy is uniquely suited for the moment. CEOs are focused on delivering 4 key experiences: customer, product, brand, and employee. With the acquisition of Qualtrics, which closed last week, SAP now combines market leadership and experienced management with end-to-end operational power in 25 industries. And why does this matter? Businesses are losing $1.6 trillion every year when their customers leave them for a competitor. This is a direct result of an experienced gap. People are just tired of being disappointed. SAP has engineered our portfolio to bridge this gap, because of 5% improvement in retention is equivalent to a 95% improvement in profit. After all, it's 5x more expensive to get a new customer than to keep the one you already have. Experience has never been more important. With Qualtrics, we give business of every size the human sentiment about their experience. The business has never had this insight before. We call this experience X-Data. With SAP, that sentiment becomes operational outcomes like better experiences, higher retention and faster growth.

我們繼續將公司搬到客戶需要我們去的地方。如果你看看現在的宏觀環境，你會發現 SAP 的戰略非常適合當下。CEO 專注於提供 4 種關鍵體驗：客戶、產品、品牌和員工。通過上週完成對 Qualtrics 的收購，SAP 現在將市場領導地位和經驗豐富的管理與 25 個行業的端到端運營能力結合起來。為什麼這很重要？當客戶離開他們轉向競爭對手時，企業每年損失 1.6 萬億美元。這是經驗差距的直接結果。人們只是厭倦了失望。SAP 設計了我們的產品組合來彌合這一差距，因為保留率提高 5% 相當於利潤提高 95%。畢竟，獲得新客戶的成本比保留現有客戶高 5 倍。經驗從未如此重要。通過 Qualtrics，我們為各種規模的企業提供對其體驗的人類情感。企業以前從未有過這種洞察力。我們稱這種體驗為 X-Data。借助 SAP，這種情緒會變成運營成果，例如更好的體驗、更高的保留率和更快的增長。

This is O or O-Data. By combining X and O-Data, SAP will help businesses revolutionize how they compete in the experienced economy. So what's the takeaway? Remember, your Xs and Os. And don't be surprised if I sign my e-mails XO, XO Bill, it's not just because I like you, although I do. This is the only strategy for SAP as we look at our bright future. And we know it's where the world is going. Experienced management is the future and SAP owns it.

這是 O 或 O-Data。通過結合 X 和 O-Data，SAP 將幫助企業徹底改變他們在經驗豐富的經濟中的競爭方式。那麼要點是什麼？記住，你的 Xs 和 Os。如果我在我的電子郵件上簽名 XO，XO Bill，請不要感到驚訝，這不僅僅是因為我喜歡你，儘管我喜歡。這是 SAP 展望光明未來的唯一戰略。我們知道這就是世界的發展方向。經驗豐富的管理是未來，而 SAP 擁有它。

And because we consistently embrace new innovation, our underlying business model is rock-solid.

因為我們始終擁抱新的創新，我們的基本商業模式是堅如磐石的。

SAP has only winning businesses in the portfolio. Every strategic asset in the company is growing. And looking back, the belief was enterprise customers would only want to rent software. But SAP embraced the software-as-a-service business model early on and we're growing the cloud faster than competition and that includes Oracle, Salesforce.com and Workday to name a few.

SAP 在投資組合中只有獲勝的業務。公司的每一項戰略資產都在增長。回顧過去，人們認為企業客戶只想租用軟件。但 SAP 很早就採用了軟件即服務業務模型，我們的雲發展速度比競爭對手更快，其中包括 Oracle、Salesforce.com 和 Workday 等。

We also have more cloud users than any company in our industry, 180 million and growing fast. It's also why there's 3 trillion in commerce running through our business networks. Just to give you a sense of scale, a wonderful company like Amazon has 250 billion running through its network.

我們的雲用戶也比我們行業中的任何公司都多，有 1.8 億，而且還在快速增長。這也是為什麼有 3 萬億美元的商業通過我們的業務網絡運行。只是為了給你一個規模感，像亞馬遜這樣出色的公司擁有 2500 億美元的網絡。

Now some customers will choose to buy the software, capitalize it and amortize it over its lifetime value. What you're seeing in these results, SAP was right to protect customer choice even as cloud has overtaken the license, which some skeptics openly doubted would happen, our core business is rock-solid, returning to software growth in Q4 and ahead of everyone's expectations for the full year.

現在一些客戶會選擇購買軟件，將其資本化並在其生命週期價值內進行攤銷。你在這些結果中看到的是，SAP 保護客戶選擇是正確的，即使雲已經取代了許可，一些懷疑者公開懷疑會發生這種情況，我們的核心業務堅如磐石，在第四季度恢復軟件增長，領先於所有人對全年的期望。

When you look at the business mix, the diversification of SAP de-risks us from many of the macro challenges facing other companies. Customers can run on-premise, in a private cloud or in the public cloud. It's their choice. SAP's business model has been built to deliver the promise. The same applies as company shift their infrastructure away from all legacy databases and data centers.

當您查看業務組合時，SAP 的多元化使我們擺脫了其他公司面臨的許多宏觀挑戰的風險。客戶可以在本地、私有云或公共雲中運行。這是他們的選擇。SAP 的業務模型旨在兌現承諾。這同樣適用於公司將其基礎設施從所有遺留數據庫和數據中心轉移出去。

SAP has strong partnerships with Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Alibaba and others to embrace this value creation opportunity. Our growing echo system shows the wide appeal of SAP's HANA architecture, as the de facto business platform for businesses of all sizes.

SAP 與微軟、谷歌、亞馬遜、阿里巴巴和其他公司建立了牢固的合作夥伴關係，以抓住這個創造價值的機會。我們不斷增長的迴聲系統顯示了 SAP 的 HANA 架構的廣泛吸引力，它是各種規模企業事實上的業務平台。

Overall, this is a business model built for scale, growth and resilience. The SAP portfolio is beyond compare, database, applications, business networks, cloud platform for integration, AI reshaping every business process and now Qualtrics to build a bridge between experienced management and the intelligent enterprise.

總的來說，這是一個為規模、增長和彈性而建立的商業模式。SAP 產品組合無與倫比，數據庫、應用程序、業務網絡、集成的雲平台、AI 重塑每個業務流程，現在 Qualtrics 將在經驗豐富的管理和智能企業之間架起一座橋樑。

We actually couldn't be happier with the state of the company. The results showcase our ultimate pride. The customer who gave us their trust. You're seeing brands like Prada, Volvo, Dyson, Uber, Cargill, Sonos, Volkswagen, Hitachi, Infosys, Haribo, Verizon Wireless, JetBlue Airways and many others standardizing on SAP.

我們實際上對公司的狀況感到非常高興。結果展示了我們最終的自豪感。給予我們信任的客戶。您會看到 Prada、Volvo、Dyson、Uber、Cargill、Sonos、Volkswagen、Hitachi、Infosys、Haribo、Verizon Wireless、JetBlue Airways 和許多其他品牌都在 SAP 上進行標準化。

They're choosing solutions from C/4HANA to S/4HANA, SAP Cloud Platform, Analytics Cloud, SAP SuccessFactors and total spend management with Ariba, Fieldglass and Concur. SAP LAN Auto not only powers advances in machine learning, we're already pushing forward with 5G and the edges of quantum computing. This is a company that never gets stuck in corners, we actually see around them.

他們正在選擇從 C/4HANA 到 S/4HANA、SAP Cloud Platform、Analytics Cloud、SAP SuccessFactors 以及 Ariba、Fieldglass 和 Concur 的總支出管理的解決方案。SAP LAN Auto 不僅推動了機器學習的進步，而且我們已經在推動 5G 和量子計算的邊緣發展。這是一家永遠不會被困在角落裡的公司，我們實際上看到了他們周圍的情況。

I'll leave you with a few key points to highlight our confidence in the road ahead. The legacy classification of addressable markets in the enterprise is no longer valid. Experienced management is the category most relevant to the CEO agenda.

我將留給您幾個要點，以強調我們對前進道路的信心。企業中可尋址市場的舊分類不再有效。經驗豐富的管理人員是與 CEO 議程最相關的類別。

Research consistently shows that trust between people and institutions is in steep decline. We will help our customers rebuild it, one experience at a time. The highly synergistic combination of X plus O will elevate our entire portfolio, differentiating every solution we offer to every line of business leader in the enterprise. Our geographic coverage model is stronger than ever.

研究一致表明，人與機構之間的信任正在急劇下降。我們將幫助我們的客戶重建它，一次一個體驗。X 加 O 的高度協同組合將提升我們的整個產品組合，使我們提供給企業中每個業務線領導者的每個解決方案都與眾不同。我們的地理覆蓋模型比以往任何時候都更強大。

SAP is the only true global business software company. We now have 425,000 customers and counting worldwide. We were ahead of our competition in China. We made it our second home. We continue to invest in the future of this amazing dynamic economy. We'll continue to take share from our competition, especially with experienced management, redefining 20th century categories as also-rans.

SAP 是唯一一家真正的全球商業軟件公司。我們現在在全球擁有 425,000 名客戶，而且還在不斷增加。我們在中國領先於競爭對手。我們把它作為我們的第二個家。我們繼續投資於這個充滿活力的驚人經濟體的未來。我們將繼續從我們的競爭中獲取份額，尤其是在經驗豐富的管理層中，將 20 世紀的類別重新定義為失敗者。

Our 2019 guidance sets us up nicely to once again meet the opportunities before us. And I can only remind you our track record shows that SAP is seldom satisfied to only meet any business objective. Even as we look back on the past 10 years, we're even hungrier for the next 10. We expect to grow cloud revenue more than 3x, 3x reaching more than EUR 35 billion in total revenue by 2023.

我們的 2019 年指南讓我們很好地再次迎接擺在我們面前的機會。我只能提醒您，我們的業績記錄表明，SAP 很少只滿足於滿足任何業務目標。即使我們回顧過去 10 年，我們對未來 10 年的渴望也更加強烈。我們預計雲收入將增長 3 倍以上，到 2023 年總收入將增長 3 倍超過 350 億歐元。

In case there are any skeptics out there, SAP will remain the fastest growing business software company in the cloud at scale. I remember the early days in 2010, since then piece by piece this company has been systematically transformed. We've made big promises and we've kept those promises. We evolved the business model even as we protected our maintenance base. We brought companies together and created a unified culture focused on helping the world run better and improving people's lives. This company takes nothing for granted. We fight for every inch with a warrior spirit. We're ready to seize our latest greatest opportunity, not because it's easy but because it's hard. We say the best run SAP for a reason, because we're so proud to help them be the best. Now we'll do it with market-leading solutions that no competitor has. X plus O is the essential equation for winning in this experienced economy. Nearly 100,000 women and men are fired up and ready to go.

如果有人對此持懷疑態度，那麼 SAP 仍將是規模化雲計算中增長最快的商業軟件公司。我記得2010年初，從那時起，這家公司就在一點一點地進行系統改造。我們做出了很大的承諾，我們也信守了這些承諾。即使我們保護了我們的維護基地，我們也發展了商業模式。我們將公司聚集在一起，創造了一種統一的文化，專注於幫助世界更好地運轉和改善人們的生活。這家公司認為沒有什麼是理所當然的。我們以勇士精神，寸土必爭。我們準備好抓住我們最新的最大機會，不是因為它容易，而是因為它很難。我們說最好的 SAP 是有原因的，因為我們很自豪能幫助他們成為最好的。現在，我們將使用競爭對手所沒有的市場領先的解決方案來做到這一點。X 加 O 是在這個經驗豐富的經濟中取勝的基本方程式。將近 100,000 名女性和男性已經準備就緒。

I'll hand the call over to our CFO, Luka Mucic, who will discuss 2018's performance in detail and then we will answer your questions. Luca, over to you?

我會將電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Luka Mucic，他將詳細討論 2018 年的業績，然後我們將回答您的問題。盧卡，給你？

Yes. Thank you, very much, Bill. This is now my 20th earnings call that I attended, and I'm extremely proud of the progress that we have made since my first call in early 2014. In the last 4 years, in particular, we have consistently met or beat all financial guidance metrics by raising them multiple times.

是的。非常感謝，比爾。這是我參加的第 20 次財報電話會議，我為自 2014 年初第一次電話會議以來我們取得的進展感到非常自豪。特別是在過去 4 年中，我們通過多次提高財務指標，始終達到或超過所有財務指標。

In 2018, I'm excited to say that we, once again, kept our promise. We closed out the year with a strong Q4. We set bold goals for 2018 and we hit or exceeded every single one of them. Cloud revenue grew by close to 40%, much faster than our main competitors. We had double-digit growth in cloud and software, total revenue and operating profit. Our cloud backlog now exceeds EUR 10 billion for the first time ever, growing at 30% year-over-year coming off a very strong comparison.

2018 年，我很高興地說，我們再次信守諾言。我們以強勁的第四季度結束了這一年。我們為 2018 年設定了大膽的目標，我們達到或超過了每一個目標。雲收入增長了近 40%，遠快於我們的主要競爭對手。我們在雲和軟件、總收入和營業利潤方面實現了兩位數的增長。我們的雲積壓訂單現在首次超過 100 億歐元，同比增長 30%，這是一個非常強勁的對比。

This high level of committed future cloud revenue will ensure that our strong cloud momentum continues. SAP once again successfully navigated the evolving economic and political environment.

這種高水平的承諾未來雲收入將確保我們強勁的雲勢頭繼續下去。SAP 再次成功駕馭了不斷變化的經濟和政治環境。

Now to our results in more detail. Both our cloud and software and total revenue comfortably exceeded the high-end of the guidance range, even though, we raised these targets 3x in 2018. Cloud certainly was a big driver of this. For the full year, new cloud bookings were up 28% to EUR 1.8 billion. Our consistent stellar growth has doubled our new cloud business in 3 years only. And remember, this metric doesn't include our pay-as-you-go businesses within Ariba, Concur and Fieldglass as well as the SAP Cloud Platform.

現在更詳細地介紹我們的結果。我們的雲和軟件以及總收入輕鬆超過了指導範圍的高端，儘管我們在 2018 年將這些目標提高了 3 倍。云無疑是這方面的重要推動力。全年，新的雲預訂增長了 28%，達到 18 億歐元。我們持續的高速增長僅在 3 年內就使我們的新雲業務翻了一番。請記住，該指標不包括我們在 Ariba、Concur 和 Fieldglass 以及 SAP Cloud Platform 中的現收現付業務。

Our cloud revenue surged 28% for the full year, exceeding EUR 5 billion in cloud revenue and achieving our target, which was raised 3x this year as well. Cloud revenue as for the first time surpassed software revenue in full year 2018, as we had predicted 4 years ago. The exceptional cloud performance was driven by the continued solid growth from SuccessFactors and our Business Networks solutions as well as exceptional growth from high-potential solutions like S/4HANA Cloud, C/4HANA, Digital Supply Chain and SAP Cloud platform just to name a few.

我們的雲收入全年猛增 28%，雲收入超過 50 億歐元，實現了我們今年也提高了 3 倍的目標。正如我們 4 年前預測的那樣，雲收入在 2018 年全年首次超過軟件收入。出色的雲性能得益於 SuccessFactors 和我們的業務網絡解決方案的持續穩健增長，以及 S/4HANA Cloud、C/4HANA、數字供應鍊和 SAP Cloud 平台等高潛力解決方案的出色增長，僅舉幾例.

In Q4, our reported software revenue was up 1%, clearly beating market and our own expectations. Note that our Q4 constant currency software result was up 8%, but this was materially impacted by hyperinflation in Argentina and Venezuela. Together with our ever-resilient maintenance business, our core software and support continues to be rock-solid with 2% growth on a reported basis in Q4.

在第四季度，我們報告的軟件收入增長了 1%，明顯超出了市場和我們自己的預期。請注意，我們第四季度的固定貨幣軟件結果增長了 8%，但這受到了阿根廷和委內瑞拉惡性通貨膨脹的重大影響。連同我們始終保持彈性的維護業務，我們的核心軟件和支持繼續堅如磐石，在第四季度報告的基礎上增長了 2%。

We're also proud to report double-digit cloud and software revenue growth for the third straight quarter, powering our full year growth to more than 10% and thus ending the year 1 percentage point higher than the top-end of the updated guidance range.

我們也很自豪地報告連續第三個季度實現兩位數的雲和軟件收入增長，推動我們的全年增長超過 10%，從而比更新指導範圍的上限高出 1 個百分點.

In addition, the combined order entry of our new cloud and software license business was up 14% for the full year, as well exceeding EUR 10 billion and almost 50% bigger than 3 years ago. In Q4, our new business even accelerated growing by 18% year-over-year. This clearly illustrates our powerful overall momentum and our ability to grow new business well ahead of total revenue. With this, let me come to the regional results for the full year where we had a very solid performance in the EMEA region with cloud and software revenue increasing 8%, cloud subscriptions and support revenue grew by 43%. Germany, Spain, the Middle East and Africa all had strong cloud revenue. The U.K. and Italy had a strong year in software revenue.

此外，我們新的雲和軟件許可業務的合併訂單全年增長了 14%，超過 100 億歐元，比 3 年前增長了近 50%。在第四季度，我們的新業務甚至同比加速增長 18%。這清楚地說明了我們強大的整體勢頭以及我們在總收入之前發展新業務的能力。有了這個，讓我來看看全年的區域業績，我們在 EMEA 地區的表現非常穩健，雲和軟件收入增長了 8%，雲訂閱和支持收入增長了 43%。德國、西班牙、中東和非洲都有強勁的雲收入。英國和意大利的軟件收入表現強勁。

We had a strong performance in the Americas region. Cloud and software revenue increased by 13%. Cloud subscriptions and support revenue increased by 33%, with Brazil and Mexico being highlights. The U.S. had a solid performance in both cloud revenue and in software revenue.

我們在美洲地區表現強勁。雲和軟件收入增長了 13%。雲訂閱和支持收入增長了 33%，巴西和墨西哥是亮點。美國在雲收入和軟件收入方面都有穩健的表現。

In the APJ region, cloud and software revenue grew by 10%. Cloud subscriptions and support revenue was in particular exceptional and grew by 53%. Greater China and Japan have both strong cloud revenue. Greater China and India had a strong year in software revenue.

在 APJ 地區，雲和軟件收入增長了 10%。雲訂閱和支持收入尤其出色，增長了 53%。大中華區和日本的雲收入都很強勁。大中華區和印度的軟件收入表現強勁。

Now, let me come to profitability and gross margins for the year. We are really proud to see that the gross margins of all our business models were up in 2018. Our software and support gross margin was 87%, up 10 basis points. Our services gross margin was up 30 basis points to 24% and remains among best-in-class.

現在，讓我談談今年的盈利能力和毛利率。我們非常自豪地看到我們所有業務模式的毛利率在 2018 年都有所上升。我們的軟件和支持毛利率為 87%，上升 10 個基點。我們的服務毛利率上升了 30 個基點，達到 24%，並保持在同類最佳水平。

Our overall cloud gross margin expanded 60 basis points, reaching 63% in 2018 as all of our cloud business models were up. Cloud gross margin for the Business Network, which is our most profitable cloud, increased by 1.1 percentage points and reached 78%. Our private cloud gross margin improved to 14% in 2018. And as you know, we continue to strengthen our strategic partnerships with the hyperscalers to reduce our incremental investment and infrastructure. We expect this to further improve the private cloud margin going forward.

由於我們所有的雲業務模式都在上升，我們的整體雲毛利率在 2018 年擴大了 60 個基點，達到 63%。業務網絡的雲毛利率增長了 1.1 個百分點，達到 78%，這是我們最賺錢的雲。我們的私有云毛利率在 2018 年提高到 14%。如您所知，我們將繼續加強與超大規模企業的戰略合作夥伴關係，以減少我們的增量投資和基礎設施。我們預計這將進一步提高未來的私有云利潤率。

The public cloud or SaaS/PaaS gross margin increased by 2.4 percentage points and reached 59%. This improvement for 2018 was primarily driven by top line growth. Looking forward, we expect to realize the benefits from our platform convergence in the first half of 2019 with further acceleration in the second half. This will set us up with full scalability going into 2020 and beyond.

公有云或SaaS/PaaS毛利率增長2.4個百分點，達到59%。2018 年的這一改善主要是由營收增長推動的。展望未來，我們預計將在 2019 年上半年實現平台融合帶來的好處，並在下半年進一步加速。這將使我們具備進入 2020 年及以後的全面可擴展性。

Our mix shift to cloud continued in 2018 and impacted or cloud and software margin by 1.2 percentage points. However, our cloud and software margin in aggregate only declined by 90 basis points. The combination of strong top line, continued cloud gross margin improvement and operational discipline led to double-digit operating profit growth at constant currencies for the full year. We achieved our target for the full year with almost EUR 7.5 billion in operating profit after, again, raising our targets 3x in 2018.

我們在 2018 年繼續向雲的組合轉移，並影響了雲和軟件利潤率 1.2 個百分點。然而，我們的雲和軟件利潤率總計僅下降了 90 個基點。強勁的收入、持續的雲毛利率改善和運營紀律相結合，導致全年以固定匯率計算的營業利潤實現兩位數增長。在 2018 年再次將目標提高 3 倍之後，我們實現了全年目標，營業利潤接近 75 億歐元。

As a result, we stabilized our operating margin in 2018. And I recognize this may be lower than some of you were expecting. It is also lower than we expected, but it is for the right reasons. Our cloud and, in particular, our services businesses developed far better than expected. And while each of them is a great business that contributed a much larger share of operating profit this year than in the past, there's still weight on our overall operating margin.

因此，我們在 2018 年穩定了營業利潤率。我知道這可能比你們中的一些人預期的要低。它也低於我們的預期，但這是出於正確的原因。我們的雲，特別是我們的服務業務發展得比預期的要好得多。雖然他們每個人都是一家偉大的企業，今年貢獻的營業利潤份額比過去大得多，但我們的整體營業利潤率仍然很重要。

Now let me turn to taxes and EPS. For the full year 2018, the IFRS effective tax rate increased by 7.5 percentage points to 27%. This was, nevertheless, at the lower end of our stated guidance range. The non-IFRS effective tax rate increased by 3.6 percentage points to 26.4%, which was even slightly lower than our guidance range. And please note the effective tax rate in 2017 was unusually low due to onetime tax benefits from the U.S. tax reform and an IP transfer to SAP SE. For the full year, IFRS earnings per share increased by 2% to EUR 3.42 and non-IFRS earnings per share decreased by 2% to EUR 4.35. In the prior year, our EPS benefited from extraordinarily high SAPPHIRE Ventures investment gains and the unusually low effective tax rate as previously mentioned.

現在讓我談談稅收和每股收益。2018 年全年，IFRS 有效稅率上升 7.5 個百分點至 27%。儘管如此，這仍處於我們規定的指導範圍的下限。非 IFRS 有效稅率上升 3.6 個百分點至 26.4%，甚至略低於我們的指導範圍。請注意，由於美國稅制改革帶來的一次性稅收優惠以及向 SAP SE 的知識產權轉讓，20​​17 年的有效稅率異常低。全年，IFRS 每股收益增長 2% 至 3.42 歐元，非 IFRS 每股收益下降 2% 至 4.35 歐元。在前一年，我們的每股收益受益於異常高的 SAPPHIRE Ventures 投資收益和如前所述的異常低的有效稅率。

Now, let me come to cash flow and capital expenditure. Our full year operating cash flow decreased to EUR 4.3 billion. That decline was mainly due to higher tax, share-based compensation and insurance payments compared to last year. Please also keep in mind our cash flow is affected by the currency headwind we have faced throughout the year. Free cash flow for the full year declined as well due to the previously announced additional CapEx for 2018. However, we were able to successfully manage our CapEx, which was less than what we had planned for at the beginning of last year.

現在，讓我來談談現金流和資本支出。我們全年的經營現金流減少至 43 億歐元。這一下降主要是由於與去年相比更高的稅收、股權補償和保險支付。還請記住，我們的現金流量受到我們全年面臨的貨幣逆風的影響。由於先前宣布的 2018 年額外資本支出，全年自由現金流也有所下降。但是，我們能夠成功管理我們的資本支出，這低於我們去年初的計劃。

For our 2019 outlook and the updated 2020 ambition, please refer to our quarterly statement published earlier today. We also introduced the 2023 ambition, as mentioned already by Bill.

有關我們的 2019 年展望和更新後的 2020 年目標，請參閱我們今天早些時候發布的季度聲明。正如比爾已經提到的，我們還介紹了 2023 年的雄心壯志。

As you will have seen in our quarterly statement, for the first time since 2015, we are executing a company-wide restructuring program this year. There are 2 objectives here: one, we will further simplify our structures and processes. And two, we'll ensure our resource allocation including the right mix of skills and qualifications matches our strategic growth areas. The cost savings from the program will fuel investments in these areas. And we expect to exit 2019 with more than 100,000 employees around the world.

正如您將在我們的季度報表中看到的那樣，自 2015 年以來，我們今年首次執行全公司重組計劃。這裡有兩個目標：第一，我們將進一步簡化我們的結構和流程。第二，我們確保我們的資源分配，包括技能和資格的正確組合，將與我們的戰略增長領域相匹配。該計劃節省的成本將推動對這些領域的投資。我們預計到 2019 年，全球員工人數將超過 100,000 人。

For closing, I wanted to talk briefly about our sustainability story in the few of our key nonfinancial metrics. In 2009, SAP embedded sustainability in its long-term strategy. This is when we started our journey towards becoming a role model of a sustainable company, and we have made great progress. At the same time, there's still a lot of potential for us to make a difference, especially by enabling our customers to run better with our solutions.

最後，我想簡要談談我們在幾個關鍵的非財務指標中的可持續發展故事。2009 年，SAP 將可持續性納入其長期戰略。這是我們開始成為可持續發展公司榜樣的旅程，我們取得了長足的進步。與此同時，我們仍有很大的潛力可以發揮作用，尤其是讓我們的客戶能夠更好地使用我們的解決方案。

We remain committed to dedicate our extensive resources, our people and technology to help address the world's biggest challenges and help achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. For example, we aspire for a world of 0 wastes supported by our Digital Supply Chain solutions.

我們仍然致力於投入我們廣泛的資源、我們的人員和技術來幫助應對世界上最大的挑戰並幫助實現聯合國可持續發展目標。例如，我們渴望在我們的數字供應鏈解決方案的支持下實現零浪費的世界。

Looking to our nonfinancial metrics, woman in management increased to 25.7%, a slight increase year-over-year. Employee retention remained in our target range at 93.9%. And I'm happy to report that our greenhouse gas emissions dropped to 310 kilotons, below our target of 333 kilotons. And here being below our target is actually a good thing. We are well on our way to becoming carbon-neutral by 2025.

從我們的非財務指標來看，女性管理層增加到 25.7%，同比略有增加。員工保留率保持在我們的目標範圍內，為 93.9%。我很高興地報告，我們的溫室氣體排放量已降至 310 噸，低於我們 333 噸的目標。低於我們的目標實際上是一件好事。我們正朝著到 2025 年實現碳中和的目標邁進。

So to summarize, we remain a beacon for growth and stability. With cloud backlog exceeding EUR 10 billion for the first time, cloud revenue exceeding EUR 5 billion for the first time, software and support remaining ever resilient and total revenue and operating profit up double-digit at constant currencies. This stellar business momentum sets us up perfectly for continued strong profitable growth. All of this makes me very confident that we will deliver on our 2019 targets and our 2020 and 2023 ambitions. Thank you. And we will now be happy to take your questions.

因此，總而言之，我們仍然是增長和穩定的燈塔。雲積壓首次超過 100 億歐元，雲收入首次超過 50 億歐元，軟件和支持始終保持彈性，總收入和營業利潤以固定匯率計算增長兩位數。這種出色的業務勢頭為我們持續強勁的盈利增長奠定了完美的基礎。所有這一切讓我非常有信心，我們將實現 2019 年的目標以及 2020 年和 2023 年的宏偉目標。謝謝。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We're going to take our first question from Adam Wood from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們將從摩根士丹利的亞當伍德那裡提出我們的第一個問題。

The first one was just on the 2020 guidance. You've added EUR 200 million to that guide at the top end and EUR 600 million at the low end. I think investors would have been anticipating Qualtrics alone to add above EUR 600 million in that year. So could you maybe just help us out? Is it Qualtrics that you're assuming slightly slow growth for over the next couple of years? Or is it another area of the business that you become a little bit more cautious on versus the previous 2020 guide? And then maybe just a housekeeping point for Luka on the IFRS change in 2018. I think, in Q3, you were expecting that to be EUR 200 million. And it looks like you ended up at EUR 400 million. Could you maybe just help us understand why that change? And would that mean the licenses and the EBIT would have been kind of flattish or slightly down ex that benefits in the year?

第一個只是關於 2020 年的指南。您已在該指南的頂端增加了 2 億歐元，在低端增加了 6 億歐元。我認為投資者會一直期待僅 Qualtrics 一家就能在當年增加 6 億歐元以上。那麼你能幫我們一下嗎？您是否假設 Qualtrics 在未來幾年內增長略微緩慢？還是與之前的 2020 年指南相比，您在業務的另一個領域變得更加謹慎？然後可能只是 Luka 關於 2018 年 IFRS 變更的一個內務管理點。我認為，在第三季度，您預計會達到 2 億歐元。看起來你最終達到了 4 億歐元。你能不能幫助我們理解為什麼會發生這種變化？這是否意味著許可證和息稅前利潤在當年的收益之前會持平或略有下降？

So maybe I'll start with the IFRS question to bring that out of the way because I think that is really the wrong way of thinking about that change. You're right that we've always been clear that there will be benefits, especially to expenses around the accounting change. And indeed, we have seen such a benefit slightly higher than what we had expected. I think we ended up at around about EUR 240 million. But the other half, I think, is a theoretical math exercise. Yes, we are reporting a benefit from the introduction of IFRS 15 on the revenue side of a bit more than EUR 150 million. But to be clear, I fully expect that this revenue would have happened either way because our sales force is very much aware of how to structure transactions in order to optimize the revenue performance on whatever metric. To give you a concrete example, 2 of our largest deals that we had in Q4 of 2018 were so-called global enterprise agreements, GEAs, that in the past would have resided in ratable revenue recognition over a number of years. And now under IFRS 15, you have a larger share of upfront revenue that is generated from them. Under old accounting, it is close to certain that we would have seen these deals as well but probably as a so-called UDD or limited -- unlimited transaction, which by the way would have been less healthy for SAP because we would have missed any kind of further order entry for outer-years that we'll now get under a global enterprise agreement. So I would really see the benefit on the revenue side as fully theoretical. On the expense side, you are right that we had a benefit of slightly above the EUR 200 million that we had originally seen.

因此，也許我將從 IFRS 問題開始，將其排除在外，因為我認為這確實是思考該變化的錯誤方式。你是對的，我們一直很清楚會有好處，尤其是圍繞會計變更的費用。事實上，我們已經看到這樣的收益略高於我們的預期。我認為我們最終的收入約為 2.4 億歐元。但我認為，另一半是理論數學練習。是的，我們報告稱，在收入方面引入 IFRS 15 帶來的收益略高於 1.5 億歐元。但要明確的是，我完全希望這種收入會以任何一種方式發生，因為我們的銷售人員非常清楚如何構建交易以優化任何指標的收入績效。舉一個具體的例子，我們在 2018 年第四季度達成的最大交易中有 2 筆是所謂的全球企業協議，即 GEA，在過去，這些交易會在多年內按比例確認收入。現在，根據 IFRS 15，您可以從中獲得更大份額的預付收入。在舊會計下，幾乎可以肯定我們也會看到這些交易，但可能是所謂的 UDD 或有限 - 無限交易，順便說一句，這對 SAP 來說不太健康，因為我們會錯過任何我們現在將根據全球企業協議獲得外部年份的進一步訂單輸入。所以我真的認為收入方面的好處完全是理論上的。在費用方面，您是對的，我們的收益略高於我們最初看到的 2 億歐元。

And Adam, I would just give you an update. We've had a kind of a reputation now, 3x last year raising and beating. So there's no reason why we don't have the winning culture here to do it again. So that's just the macro comment. I want to give you a quick update on Qualtrics since you mentioned them. We -- when we took on Qualtrics, the idea was a EUR 575 million cloud company end of 2019. I can tell you that they came out of 2018 at EUR 500 million, which was beyond their own expectation. I can tell you that they're growing at 45%, and I can tell you that they are cash flow positive. And I can also say that there is no other company with that profile in the marketplace. With the synergy of Qualtrics and SAP, combining the experience, data with the operational data from the SAP intelligent enterprise, we think we have something incredibly special here. And it will make archaic slides of CRM market share look silly. So we're ready to get to work and we have tremendous optimism and motivation in our company to take the hill.

亞當，我只想給你更新。我們現在有了某種聲譽，去年提高了 3 倍。因此，我們沒有理由在這裡沒有成功的文化來再次做到這一點。這只是宏觀評論。既然你提到了 Qualtrics，我想給你一個快速的更新。我們——當我們收購 Qualtrics 時，我們的想法是在 2019 年底成為一家價值 5.75 億歐元的雲公司。我可以告訴你，他們 2018 年的收入是 5 億歐元，這超出了他們自己的預期。我可以告訴你，他們的增長率為 45%，我可以告訴你，他們的現金流為正。我還可以說，市場上沒有其他公司具有這種形象。通過 Qualtrics 和 SAP 的協同作用，將經驗、數據與來自 SAP 智能企業的運營數據相結合，我們認為我們在這裡擁有一些非常特別的東西。這將使 CRM 市場份額的陳舊幻燈片看起來很愚蠢。因此，我們已準備好開始工作，我們對公司充滿信心和動力去爬山。

We're moving to a question from Michael Briest from UBS.

我們正在轉向來自瑞銀的 Michael Briest 的問題。

Luka, just on the cloud gross margin. Can you talk about how Qualtrics changes your ambitions in 2020? And maybe looking out to 2023 now, you have previously said the lever should kick in after 2020, where would you expect cloud margins to reach by then? And then just on the cloud bookings number. I appreciate it doesn't capture the activity in the Business Network. But the growth there of sort of low 20s at constant currency, I guess, Callidus was a help to that, so perhaps even in the teens. Can you maybe sort of explain how that deceleration occurred and what you expect for 2019?

盧卡，就在雲毛利率上。您能談談 Qualtrics 如何改變您在 2020 年的抱負嗎？也許現在展望 2023 年，您之前曾說過槓桿應該在 2020 年之後發揮作用，您預計到那時雲利潤率會達到什麼水平？然後就在雲預訂號碼上。我很欣賞它沒有捕獲業務網絡中的活動。但我猜，以固定匯率計算，那裡的增長大約在 20 多歲左右，Callidus 對此有所幫助，所以甚至在十幾歲時也是如此。您能否解釋一下這種減速是如何發生的以及您對 2019 年的期望？

Yes. I can start and certainly everyone else feel free to chime in. And let me start with the notion of a deceleration of our cloud business. I can't follow this at all. I mean, of course, there can be from 1 quarter to another changes and fluctuations in how our order entry comes together. It was actually up to 18% growth combined between software and cloud in Q4 and 14% for the full year. So Q4 was a particularly strong one. But it had a different composition. That's true. We were -- we saw licenses returning to growth even without the hyperinflation impact. And on the flip side, cloud was a little bit lower. But you need to take a look at the full year performance, which was up 28%. And if you then add the backlog growth to it, you see that we have a very, very healthy business here, where the order entry in 2018 comfortably will carry us towards reaching our targets for the midterm. So nothing at all to be worried about here. When it comes to the cloud gross margins, certainly, Qualtrics has a very efficient platform, and they run at very high gross margins, actually far above the 80% mark, which will, of course, help us on the -- particularly the SaaS/PaaS margin progress. However, having said that, we retain our ambition for the entire portfolio that we have had all along. I know that some in the market have had concerns whether SAP will be in a position to end up at the 71% weighted gross margin performance in the cloud given where we are at the moment, which is only at 63%. But remember, there is a big bump coming our way now with the platform convergence that we are looking to achieve and complete by the end of Q1, which will make room for substantial run rate savings outside of Qualtrics in our established portfolio, which will carry us to that 71% target. And that remains our stated target objective for 2020. Going beyond, of course, our objective remains to increase the cloud margin further beyond that. And we will update markets in due course about our ambitions in that respect.

是的。我可以開始了，當然其他人也可以隨意插話。讓我從我們的雲業務減速的概念開始。我根本無法理解這一點。我的意思是，當然，從一個季度到另一個季度，我們的訂單輸入方式可能會發生變化和波動。實際上，第四季度軟件和雲計算的總和增長了 18%，全年增長了 14%。所以第四季度特別強勁。但它有不同的組成。這是真的。我們是——我們看到許可證恢復增長，即使沒有惡性通貨膨脹的影響。另一方面，雲層稍微低了一點。但你需要看看全年的表現，增長了 28%。如果您隨後將積壓增長添加到其中，您會發現我們這裡的業務非常、非常健康，2018 年的訂單輸入將使我們輕鬆實現中期目標。所以這裡沒有什麼可擔心的。談到雲毛利率，當然，Qualtrics 有一個非常高效的平台，它們的毛利率非常高，實際上遠高於 80%，這當然會幫助我們——尤其是 SaaS /PaaS 保證金進展。然而，話雖如此，我們保留了我們一直以來對整個投資組合的雄心。我知道市場上的一些人擔心 SAP 是否能夠最終達到 71% 的雲計算加權毛利率，因為我們目前只有 63%。但請記住，隨著我們希望在第一季度末實現並完成的平台融合，我們現在面臨著一個巨大的障礙，這將為我們現有產品組合中 Qualtrics 之外的大量運行率節省騰出空間，這將帶來我們達到了 71% 的目標。這仍然是我們 2020 年的既定目標。當然，除此之外，我們的目標仍然是進一步提高雲利潤率。我們將在適當的時候向市場更新我們在這方面的雄心壯志。

And I think we got about EUR 10 billion on unbilled cloud revenue at this point in the bank and also about 65% of the revenues as a company, which are totally predictable. And as I recall, that was the #1 thing that the investment community was very interested in, not only the cloud growth but also a healthy backlog and predictable revenues. And Michael, you're absolutely right to press on the margin in terms of the cloud operations within SAP to improve and to get to the benchmarks that we've seen from the external cloud companies. Actually, I consider that low-hanging fruit, and we're chasing it.

而且我認為我們在銀行的這一點上獲得了大約 100 億歐元的未開票雲收入，以及大約 65% 的公司收入，這是完全可以預測的。我記得，這是投資界非常感興趣的第一件事，不僅是雲增長，還有健康的積壓和可預測的收入。邁克爾，你在 SAP 內部的雲運營方面推動利潤率以改進並達到我們從外部雲公司看到的基準是絕對正確的。實際上，我認為這是唾手可得的成果，我們正在努力爭取。

Yes. And perhaps just a final comment here that complements what Bill has been saying. Our average contract duration in the cloud has actually been further up. We are now at 3.8 years for an average initial contract life cycle. And that, together with the backlog statements, should tell you one more thing. And that is why our new cloud bookings are based on ACV, annualized contract values. We actually see a large number of contracts that have very attractive ramp-up curves that will bring us even better returns for the longer term. So this is a very, very healthy position to be in, and one that makes us very confident around our targets.

是的。也許這裡只是補充比爾所說內容的最後評論。我們在雲中的平均合同期限實際上已經更長了。我們現在的平均初始合同生命週期為 3.8 年。而且，連同積壓報表，應該告訴你一件事。這就是為什麼我們新的雲預訂基於 ACV，年化合同價值。我們實際上看到大量合約具有非常有吸引力的上升曲線，這將為我們帶來更好的長期回報。所以這是一個非常非常健康的位置，並且讓我們對我們的目標非常有信心。

Our next question is from Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Kirk Materne。

Maybe I'll start with Luka. Luka, just on the 2023 sort of outlook, I realized it's a long ways out. You mentioned sort of operating profit growth. But one of the questions we continually get is about free cash flow growth for you all. And I realize there's a lot of moving parts with stock-based comp and now this restructuring charge. But is there any reason why free cash flow wouldn't sort of accelerate ahead of operating profit as those factors normalize for you all? Could you just talk a little bit about how we should think about free cash flow growth in the context of sort of your longer-term guidance?

也許我會從盧卡開始。盧卡，就 2023 年的前景而言，我意識到還有很長的路要走。你提到了某種營業利潤增長。但我們不斷收到的問題之一是關於你們所有人的自由現金流增長。而且我意識到有很多移動部件與基於股票的補償和現在的重組費用有關。但是，當這些因素對你們所有人來說正常化時，有什麼理由可以說明自由現金流不會在營業利潤之前加速嗎？您能否談談我們應該如何在您的長期指導背景下考慮自由現金流的增長？

Absolutely, you're spot on. Absolutely, free cash flow should actually accelerate beyond our performance on profit because, as you said, we are becoming more efficient in terms of our capital expenditure. We definitely are seeing -- already in 2018, we ended up below where we plan to be. We see that in 2019 and beyond, we will basically remain at this level. So any kind of leverage that we gain from our business operation should flow through on the cash flow side. At the same time, we still have also room for further improvement in terms of the operating cash flow leverage. Our DSO was slightly down year-over-year but just by less than 1 day. I think we have still further room to go down from, let's say, the current almost 70 days to probably low 60s at least, which should give us a further positive leverage. And that's what we are working on. You're right, we have significant special effects at the moment, certainly the restructuring as well as some of the increased share-based compensation that we will have for 2019. But both should dissipate quickly and make room for definitely superior cash flow returns.

絕對，你是正確的。當然，自由現金流實際上應該加速超過我們的利潤表現，因為正如你所說，我們在資本支出方面變得更有效率。我們肯定會看到 - 已經在 2018 年，我們最終低於我們計劃的水平。我們看到2019年及以後，我們基本上會保持在這個水平上。因此，我們從業務運營中獲得的任何一種槓桿作用都應該在現金流方面產生影響。同時，我們在經營現金流槓桿方面還有進一步提升的空間。我們的 DSO 同比略有下降，但下降不到 1 天。我認為我們還有進一步下跌的空間，比方說，從目前的近 70 天下跌至至少可能低於 60 天，這應該會給我們帶來進一步的積極影響。這就是我們正在努力的。你是對的，我們目前有重大的特殊效果，當然是重組以及我們將在 2019 年增加的一些基於股份的薪酬。但兩者都應該迅速消散，並為絕對優越的現金流回報騰出空間。

And maybe I could just add one thing. When some companies talk about restructuring, they're like tired companies dealing with headcount problems. We're talking about getting the necessary skills on top of the growth opportunities. It's a HANA world. We're running away with the cloud, experienced management's on fire. And everything that can be in the artificial intelligence and machine learning category that's built into our apps, we're driving it with all we have. So what we're doing is optimizing our workforce to actually increase the growth of the company, just to be very clear.

也許我可以添加一件事。當一些公司談論重組時，他們就像處理人員問題的疲憊公司。我們正在談論在增長機會之上獲得必要的技能。這是一個 HANA 世界。我們正在與雲一起逃跑，經驗豐富的管理層著火了。我們的應用程序中內置的人工智能和機器學習類別中的所有內容，我們都在竭盡全力推動它。所以我們正在做的是優化我們的員工隊伍，以真正促進公司的發展，非常清楚。

Yes. And just to sneak one last one for Bill. Bill, you mentioned the strong end of the year the Qualtrics team had. As you think about this experienced management category, I know you're leaving Qualtrics independent. But how are you all working together in the field to sort of raise, I think, their profile probably internationally and sort of bring both the teams together as you're having these larger digital transformation conversations with the customers?

是的。只是為了偷偷為比爾做最後一件事。比爾，你提到了 Qualtrics 團隊在年底表現強勁。當你考慮這個經驗豐富的管理類別時，我知道你要讓 Qualtrics 獨立。但是你們是如何在這個領域一起工作的，我認為，他們可能在國際上的形象，並且在你們與客戶進行這些更大的數字化轉型對話時，將兩個團隊聚集在一起？

It's a great question. I'm grateful for it. When I leave Germany, I'm headed to the United States. And one of my first thoughts is going to be Silicon Slopes where I'm keynoting a major Qualtrics event with thousands of people. So here's what we're doing. We have a very experienced executive board colleague, Robert Enslin, that runs the cloud business group within SAP. As you know, he has SuccessFactors, Ariba, Fieldglass and basically the C/4HANA initiative for the company, okay? We are redefining the whole CRM space with C/4HANA. And we're going after that market and we're growing it in triple digits. Experienced management has already been infused into our whole company as the biggest transformational idea in the culture. Every single sales representative globally has it in their bag. We now have complete synergy between Qualtrics and the entire SAP sales force.

這是一個很好的問題。我很感激它。當我離開德國時，我將前往美國。我的第一個想法就是矽坡，我將在那裡與數千人一起發表重要的 Qualtrics 活動。這就是我們正在做的。我們有一位非常有經驗的執行董事會同事 Robert Enslin，負責管理 SAP 內的雲業務組。如您所知，他擁有 SuccessFactors、Ariba、Fieldglass 以及基本上是公司的 C/4HANA 計劃，好嗎？我們正在使用 C/4HANA 重新定義整個 CRM 空間。我們正在追逐那個市場，我們正在以三位數的速度增長它。經驗豐富的管理已經作為文化中最大的變革理念融入了我們整個公司。全球每一位銷售代表的包裡都有它。現在，我們在 Qualtrics 和整個 SAP 銷售團隊之間實現了完全協同。

So if they're growing 45% year-over-year without us, what are they going to do when you put 15,000 customer-facing assets next to them? This is probably the biggest growth opportunity I've ever seen in my career. So rest assured, we will be a major force to deal with in CRM with the C/4HANA initiative, but even more when you can broaden the conversation to experienced management because now you're touching a company's products, you're activating their workforce, you're moving their brand and you're really touching everything operationally with everything on the experience side. And it's truly breathtaking. One of my favorite examples is JetBlue. They had very good on-time arrival for their passengers, yet their customer satisfaction wasn't where they wanted it to be. So operationally, the systems of record couldn't tell them that. But when they looked at the experience of their customers, they could quickly locate, oh, the call center is the issue. We're just not handling the customer right when they call in. So you connected the operational data and the experience data, solve the major issue for a major company. And they're off and running now with net promoter scores that are very high, very happy customers. So this is totally transformational. Think about the SAP Digital Boardroom now, not only having the operational data for an enterprise, but now the experienced data for all things that are moving outside the enterprise. This is really big.

因此，如果他們在沒有我們的情況下同比增長 45%，那麼當您將 15,000 個面向客戶的資產放在他們旁邊時，他們會怎麼做？這可能是我職業生涯中見過的最大的成長機會。所以請放心，我們將成為 CRM 中處理 C/4HANA 計劃的主要力量，但當您可以將對話擴大到經驗豐富的管理人員時更是如此，因為現在您正在接觸公司的產品，您正在激活他們的員工隊伍，你正在移動他們的品牌，你真的在體驗方面的一切都在操作上觸及一切。這真是令人嘆為觀止。我最喜歡的例子之一是捷藍航空。他們為乘客提供了非常好的準時到達，但他們的客戶滿意度卻沒有達到他們想要的水平。所以在操作上，記錄系統無法告訴他們。但是他們看了客戶的體驗，很快就定位到，哦，是呼叫中心的問題。我們只是在客戶打電話時沒有正確處理他們。因此，您將運營數據和體驗數據連接起來，解決了一家大公司的重大問題。他們現在開始運行，淨推薦值非常高，客戶非常滿意。所以這完全是變革性的。想想現在的 SAP Digital Boardroom，它不僅擁有企業的運營數據，而且現在還擁有企業外部所有事物的經驗數據。這真的很大。

The next question is from John King from Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美林證券的約翰金。

I've got two, actually. Actually, the first one was on the back of your comments, Bill, around the experienced opportunity you have there. Do you feel as though you've got all the pieces in the jigsaw there? Or can you see further acquisitions you may need to make or current developments that perhaps you wanted to -- in order just to round out that offering? And then second one was going to be on the free cash flow for Luka, following up there. Can you maybe just give us a guidance on what you'd expect free cash flow to look like in 2019? I know there's a few one-offs that dragged down '18 quite significantly below. So I'm just trying to work out, well, I guess, how much of that was a one-off, and therefore, what the real underlying base should be as we look into 2019.

其實我有兩個事實上，第一個是在你評論的背後，Bill，圍繞著你在那裡擁有的經驗豐富的機會。您是否覺得自己已經掌握了拼圖中的所有部分？或者您是否可以看到您可能需要進行的進一步收購或您可能想要的當前開發 - 只是為了完善該產品？然後第二個將是關於 Luka 的自由現金流，緊隨其後。您能否就您對 2019 年自由現金流的預期向我們提供指導？我知道有一些一次性事件將 18 年的業績拖到了很低的水平。所以我只是想弄清楚，嗯，我猜，其中有多少是一次性的，因此，當我們展望 2019 年時，真正的基礎應該是什麼。

So John, well, maybe I'll open it up. And first of all, I want to say that the trust that I have and that SAP has with all of you can't be overstated in its importance. And last year, I know we acquired Qualtrics a little off of what you expected for a large-scale acquisition. But don't forget, they filed an S-1. They were going public. We acquired them. And there was no way of knowing we could have possibly been successful in that endeavor. Knock on wood. I'm really happy for all of us, we were -- but don't think in any way we had that one in the bag. That was a unique development and a great opportunity, and we seized it. And hopefully, you know in trust and transparency, we're always upfront with you. We don't have any big ones on the docket right now. We have what we need. You know we're good capital allocators. Everything we've ever bought outperformed the business case in the boardroom. So Qualtrics has what they need organically. They have plenty of things going on. And right now, we're not looking at any business cases in the strategy room. Similarly, neither does SAP. So what you see is kind of what you get. And I believe if we do something, it'll be very tuck-in in its orientation and nothing sizable or scalable for you to be concerned with. Luka?

所以約翰，好吧，也許我會打開它。首先，我想說的是，我和 SAP 對你們所有人的信任的重要性怎麼強調都不為過。去年，我知道我們對 Qualtrics 的收購略低於您對大規模收購的預期。但別忘了，他們提交了 S-1。他們要上市了。我們收購了它們。並且沒有辦法知道我們在這方面的努力是否可能取得成功。敲木頭。我真的為我們所有人感到高興，我們曾經——但無論如何不要認為我們已經把那個放在了包裡。這是一個獨特的發展和一個很好的機會，我們抓住了它。希望您知道我們始終以信任和透明的方式與您坦誠相待。我們現在沒有任何大的。我們有我們需要的。你知道我們是優秀的資本配置者。我們購買的所有產品都優於董事會的商業案例。所以 Qualtrics 有機地擁有他們需要的東西。他們有很多事情要做。現在，我們不會在戰略室查看任何業務案例。同樣，SAP 也沒有。所以所見即所得。而且我相信，如果我們做某事，它的方向會非常內斂，沒有什麼可觀的或可擴展的讓你關心。盧卡？

Yes. On the free cash flow 2019 side, so very clear, our underlying free cash flow was significantly improved before restructuring-related cash outflows and share-based compensation outflows that we will see increase because of the acquisition of Qualtrics and the share-based compensation that we are taking over from that. But otherwise, in particular, due to the moderation of the CapEx needs, there will be a significant increase. Now considering those 2 factors, in aggregate, I expect both operating cash flow and free cash flow to be broadly in line with what we have seen in 2018 to then make room as of 2020 for significant increases. But that is really driven by the restructuring as well as by the share-based compensation. All other elements, I don't expect similar one-offs as we have seen them in 2018.

是的。在 2019 年的自由現金流方面，非常清楚，我們的基本自由現金流在重組相關現金流出和基於股份的補償流出之前得到顯著改善，我們將看到由於收購 Qualtrics 和基於股份的補償而增加我們正在接管它。但除此之外，特別是由於資本支出需求的緩和，將會有顯著增加。現在綜合考慮這兩個因素，我預計運營現金流和自由現金流都將與我們在 2018 年看到的大致一致，然後在 2020 年為大幅增長騰出空間。但這實際上是由重組和基於股份的薪酬驅動的。所有其他元素，我預計不會像我們在 2018 年看到的那樣一次性出現。

The next question is from Gerardus Vos from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gerardus Vos。

Just quickly on the revenue. What have you implied for kind of licenses in '19 and '20 and perhaps kind of beyond? Then secondly, coming back on the cash flow and particularly on the share-based compensation. How much of the increase in '19 versus '18 is driven by the share price and how much is by more outstanding options? And then would you consider a share settlement instead of a kind of cash settlement in the kind of future given the kind of volatility we've seen on this line here?

只是很快就收入了。您對 19 年和 20 年以及以後的許可證有什麼暗示？其次，回到現金流量，特別是基於股份的薪酬。19 年與 18 年相比的增長有多少是由股價推動的，有多少是由更多未償還的期權推動的？考慮到我們在這條線上看到的那種波動性，你會考慮在未來那種股票結算而不是現金結算嗎？

Yes. So let me peel those back from the back to the front. In terms of share-based compensation programs and moving them to equity-settled programs, I think that's something that we will need to very carefully weigh because that comes with disadvantages. For example, in many countries, equity-settled programs would not be tax deductible, whereas they are when they are cash settled. What we will do is definitely increase the level of transparency that we provide around our free cash flow in terms of what is driven by share-based compensation. So you can expect when you visit us next week in New York that I will provide some more transparency around that. In that same light, in terms of the impact from share-based compensation for 2018 and 2019, I can give you a rough ballpark figure here in the sense that 2018 was affected by roughly EUR 140 million higher share-based compensation expense in 2019. We're rather looking at something like EUR 300 million on top. That gives you a ballpark range. But please, more exact ideas will follow with the Capital Markets Day. And in terms of the license implied guidance, when you make the math, I think you will see that for '19 and '20, we consider -- we still consider implied mid-single-digit declines of licenses. And then for the outer-years, it would start to increase. We think that is a prudent and balanced assumption. And it's broadly supported by the trajectory that we have seen in 2018, at least it does not leave us exposed in that sense and there's certainly a scope for possible better development, as we have seen it in Q4. But we want to be prudent and want to make sure that we hit each and every one of our outlook metrics, which is also what could explain some of the perceived conservatism that you have highlighted in your notes. But I think it's good, especially when you look out 5 years into the future, that you are not getting too far ahead of yourself.

是的。所以讓我把那些從後面剝到前面。在基於股份的薪酬計劃並將其轉移到以股權結算的計劃方面，我認為這是我們需要非常仔細權衡的事情，因為它有缺點。例如，在許多國家，以股權結算的項目不能免稅，而以現金結算時則可以。我們要做的肯定是提高我們在基於股份的薪酬驅動的自由現金流方面提供的透明度。所以你可以期待下週在紐約訪問我們時，我會提供更多的透明度。同樣，就 2018 年和 2019 年基於股份的薪酬的影響而言，我可以在這裡給你一個粗略的數字，因為 2018 年受到 2019 年大約 1.4 億歐元的基於股份的薪酬支出增加的影響。我們寧願考慮 3 億歐元。這給了你一個大概的範圍。但是，請在資本市場日之後提供更準確的想法。就許可證隱含指導而言，當你進行數學計算時，我想你會看到，對於 19 年和 20 年，我們認為——我們仍然考慮許可證的隱含中個位數下降。然後對於外部年份，它會開始增加。我們認為這是一個審慎和平衡的假設。它得到了我們在 2018 年看到的軌蹟的廣泛支持，至少它不會讓我們在這個意義上暴露在外，而且肯定有可能更好的發展空間，正如我們在第四季度看到的那樣。但我們要謹慎，並希望確保我們達到每一個前景指標，這也可以解釋你在筆記中強調的一些明顯的保守主義。但我認為這很好，尤其是當你展望未來 5 年時，你並沒有超越自己太遠。

Yes. One thing, I think, that Luka mentioned that's very noteworthy is the license performance in 2018. If you remember, at the end of Q3, we told you we would deliver our full year guidance with the on-premise software license. And I think to probably the relief of many of you, we not only delivered that, but we beat it quite handily. So when we do these guidance calls with you, we take them extremely seriously. But I do want to reiterate, SAP has an ever strong core business, and SAP is growing faster than all the others in the cloud. And we have, in each case that we have done these guidance calls with you, done what we said we were going to do. So I wouldn't, from quarter-to-quarter, maybe this year, fuss too much about one metric or another from a 90-day cycle. I think if you looked at it semiannually or annually, you'd be very happy with SAP. And I hope that you agree with that and reward SAP in kind.

是的。我認為，Luka 提到的一件非常值得注意的事情是 2018 年的許可表現。如果您還記得，在第三季度末，我們告訴過您我們將通過本地軟件許可提供全年指導。我想可能讓你們中的許多人鬆了一口氣的是，我們不僅實現了這一點，而且還輕鬆地擊敗了它。因此，當我們與您進行這些指導電話時，我們會非常認真地對待它們。但我確實想重申，SAP 擁有強大的核心業務，而且 SAP 的增長速度超過了雲領域的所有其他公司。在與您進行這些指導通話的每種情況下，我們都完成了我們所說的我們將要做的事情。因此，從一個季度到另一個季度，也許今年，我不會對 90 天週期中的一個或另一個指標大驚小怪。我認為，如果您每半年或每年查看一次，您會對 SAP 感到非常滿意。我希望您同意這一點並以實物獎勵 SAP。

This question is from Phil Winslow from Wells Fargo.

這個問題來自富國銀行的 Phil Winslow。

Just want to focus back on the restructuring or, as Luka called it, the fitness program. Obviously, we talked a lot on this call about sort of the technology side and where the focus is going to be. A question for Bill here on the go-to-market. When you think about sort of the fitness program and sort of the plan for growth going forward, how do you envision sort of the go-to-market alignment or capacity changing going forward? Any sort of change in focus versus what we've been seeing? And is there sort of change in size, capacity and alignment? Just sort of more detail there would be great.

只想把注意力重新放在重組上，或者正如盧卡所說的那樣，健身計劃。顯然，我們在這次電話會議上談了很多關於技術方面和重點的地方。關於上市的問題，請問比爾。當您考慮某種健身計劃和某種未來增長計劃時，您如何看待未來的上市調整或產能變化？與我們所看到的相比，焦點有任何變化嗎？在大小、容量和對齊方面是否有某種變化？只要有更多的細節就好了。

Thank you very much, Phil. I think you should think of it this way: the structure of the go-to-market strategy for SAP is very similar to what you've grown accustomed to because it works. What you're going to see us do is put more emphasis on the big growth opportunities and get the skills in the jobs that we need to truly transform the way our customers serve their customers. So think of the business network in the spend management context as something we're going to double down on. Think of C/4HANA, our flagship CRM end-to-end offering, as something we're going to double down on. Think of experienced management as something we're going to revolutionize not only SAP, but the entire industry on, and that includes the partner networks that go along with it. Think about our core business as much more focused on the value drivers. When you think about HANA as the ultimate platform for a modern enterprise, you think about what we can do with HANA as database-as-a-service, you think about Leonardo with predictive AI and deep machine learning and IoT, we're going to double down on these things. And we're going to be in every industry and we're going to be in every market where we know we can get leverage. One such example is China. Everyone keeps talking about the slowdown in China. You're talking about the world's second largest economy growing at 6% instead of 6.6% or 7%. It's still minting countries every year in terms of its size and scale. And we happen to have an enormous advantage in China. So I think of experienced management engineering. You're very familiar with our value engineering story as a way to tie together the X-data and the O-data to rethink business processes across our companies that we serve in all the industries we serve them and having the people that have the domain expertise in the real leading information technology areas that our customers care about. And what we're doing with the fitness program is we're giving people a chance to do some early retirement in countries where we need to do that. And in the countries where we don't have the skill set that we want, we're obviously going to compromise a nice agreement with our employees to treat them very fairly. They tend to show up in the ecosystem or in customers where they can be highly friendly to SAP. And we're going to hire the best minds in the world because, you know what, if you look at SAP as an employer of choice, we're in a pole position now. We have an extremely motivated, loyal workforce, and we're considered one of the great companies in the world to work for. We should get the very best talent. Now keep in mind, when I say this, we're going to be very careful when we hire. We know what you guys want. You want the growth and you want the margin. I think we can do both.

非常感謝你，菲爾。我認為您應該這樣想：SAP 的上市戰略結構與您已經習以為常的結構非常相似，因為它很有效。你將看到我們所做的是更加重視巨大的增長機會，並獲得我們真正改變客戶服務客戶方式所需的工作技能。因此，將支出管理環境中的業務網絡視為我們要加倍努力的事情。想想 C/4HANA，我們的旗艦 CRM 端到端產品，我們將加倍努力。將經驗豐富的管理視為我們不僅要徹底改變 SAP，而且要徹底改變整個行業，包括隨之而來的合作夥伴網絡。想想我們的核心業務更專注於價值驅動因素。當您將 HANA 視為現代企業的終極平台時，您會想到我們可以將 HANA 作為數據庫即服務來做什麼，您會想到萊昂納多的預測人工智能、深度機器學習和物聯網，我們將在這些事情上加倍努力。我們將進入每個行業，進入每個我們知道可以發揮影響力的市場。中國就是這樣的例子之一。每個人都在談論中國經濟放緩。你說的是世界第二大經濟體的增長率為 6%，而不是 6.6% 或 7%。就其規模和規模而言，它每年仍在鑄造國家。而我們恰好在中國擁有巨大的優勢。所以我想到了經驗豐富的管理工程。您非常熟悉我們的價值工程故事，作為一種將 X 數據和 O 數據聯繫在一起的方式，以重新思考我們在我們服務的所有行業中服務的公司的業務流程，並擁有擁有領域的人員我們的客戶關心的真正領先的信息技術領域的專業知識。我們通過健身計劃所做的是讓人們有機會在我們需要這樣做的國家提前退休。在我們不具備所需技能的國家/地區，我們顯然會妥協與我們的員工達成一項非常公平的協議。他們傾向於出現在生態系統或客戶中，這些地方他們可以對 SAP 非常友好。我們將聘請世界上最優秀的人才，因為，你知道嗎，如果你將 SAP 視為首選雇主，我們現在處於領先地位。我們擁有一支非常積極、忠誠的員工隊伍，我們被認為是世界上最適合工作的公司之一。我們應該得到最好的人才。請記住，當我這麼說時，我們在招聘時會非常小心。我們知道你們想要什麼。你想要增長，你想要利潤。我認為我們可以兩者兼顧。

Our next question is from Charlie Brennan from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Charlie Brennan。

Can I just come back on Phil's question on restructuring from a different angle? Specifically, I've had a number of client conversations today asking me whether we should view this as a one-off program or something more sustainable. If I just look back across my model, we saw a reasonable restructuring back in 2015. Looks like there was a smaller program in 2017 and now a bigger program again in '19. Is some kind of restructuring do you think the norm every other year for SAP? And should we be thinking about that when we put our cash flow forecast together for the future?

我能否從另一個角度回到 Phil 關於重組的問題？具體來說，我今天與許多客戶進行了交談，詢問我是否應該將其視為一次性計劃或更具可持續性的計劃。如果我回顧一下我的模型，我們在 2015 年看到了合理的重組。看起來 2017 年有一個較小的程序，現在 19 年又有一個更大的程序。您認為 SAP 每隔一年進行一次重組是常態嗎？當我們將未來的現金流量預測放在一起時，我們是否應該考慮這一點？

The answer to that is a simple no. You shouldn't. And in fact, SAP in its history has had, I think, only 3 programs of this type: one was directly in the financial crisis, the other one was in 2015 and this one is now 4 years later. So no need to reflect major restructuring activity on a per annum basis, clear no.

答案是否定的。你不應該。事實上，我認為 SAP 在其歷史上只有 3 個這種類型的程序：一個是直接在金融危機中，另一個是在 2015 年，而這個是 4 年後的現在。因此，無需按年度反映重大重組活動，很清楚。

And we were -- go ahead.

我們是——繼續。

No, I was going to ask a separate question, so please finish.

不，我要問一個單獨的問題，所以請完成。

No, no, no. I was just saying on a per capita basis, it would be similar when you think about the size and scale of the company to the one we did in 2015. I want to remind everyone that we didn't have any morale issues. In fact, the workforce understood the high-performance culture we're driving here. We expect a similar outcome this time. When we cut the deal with the executive board on this particular fitness initiative, everybody was looking at this with a 5-year time horizon in mind. This was the gateway to kicking us up a notch in terms of really taking advantage of the market opportunity.

不不不。我只是說按人均計算，當你考慮公司的規模和規模時，它會與我們在 2015 年所做的相似。我想提醒大家，我們沒有任何士氣問題。事實上，員工理解我們在這裡推動的高績效文化。這次我們期待類似的結果。當我們與執行委員會就這項特定的健身計劃達成協議時，每個人都在考慮 5 年的時間範圍。這是讓我們在真正利用市場機會方面更上一層樓的門戶。

Great. And just a very quick follow-up. You mentioned the platform convergence on the cloud side and the initiatives there to improve margins. You're originally expecting that program to end at the end of 2018. It sounds like that's now slipping to Q1. Can you just remind us of the reasons for that slippage? And is there any danger that, that continues to slip into Q2 and Q3 and undermine your margin efforts this year?

偉大的。並且只是一個非常快速的跟進。您提到了雲端的平台融合以及提高利潤率的舉措。您最初預計該計劃將在 2018 年底結束。聽起來現在正下滑至第一季度。你能提醒我們一下滑點的原因嗎？是否有任何危險繼續滑入第二季度和第三季度並破壞你今年的保證金努力？

So no, not at all. And to be very clear, we are exactly where we want and need to be. My comment is around the fact, I think we've covered that on one of the previous calls, that the maintenance agreement for our third-party legacy databases that we are replacing are ending as of end of March 2019. And that's why you will see the run rate benefit from those initiatives only starting as of Q2 2019. But that should not imply that we are off track in terms of finishing the replacement. That hopefully clarifies.

所以不，一點也不。非常清楚，我們正是我們想要和需要去的地方。我的評論是圍繞這樣一個事實，我認為我們已經在之前的一次電話會議中提到過，我們正在更換的第三方遺留數據庫的維護協議將於 2019 年 3 月底終止。這就是為什麼您將看到從 2019 年第二季度開始的這些計劃的運行率收益。但這並不意味著我們在完成更換方面偏離了軌道。這有望澄清。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Mohammed Moawalla from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Mohammed Moawalla。

I have two questions. First one, Luka, I may have missed your answer earlier. But if I look at the quantum of the cloud gross margin expansion in Q4, that was lesser than what we saw in sort of Q2 and Q3. Can you just remind us for that and how you expect that sort of to evolve? Obviously, you mentioned the kind of expiry of the maintenance agreements, and what's sort of the shape of that?

我有兩個問題。第一個，盧卡，我之前可能錯過了你的回答。但如果我看一下第四季度雲毛利率的增長幅度，就會發現它比我們在第二季度和第三季度看到的要少。您能否就此提醒我們，以及您希望這種情況如何發展？顯然，您提到了維護協議的到期類型，它的形式是什麼？

And then second one for Bill. Obviously, in Q4, you had a pretty strong top line performance. As you engage with customers in sort of the boardroom around sort of investment decisions with potentially some GDP macro slowdown, can you kind of help us understand SAP's sort of product portfolio set in terms of how discretionary versus mission-critical some of your customers' investments are around your software and then ultimately kind of driving your growth ambitions?

然後是 Bill 的第二個。顯然，在第四季度，你們的收入表現相當強勁。當您在董事會中與客戶就可能出現某種 GDP 宏觀放緩的投資決策進行互動時，您能否幫助我們了解 SAP 的產品組合，這些產品組合是根據您的客戶的一些投資的自由裁量權還是關鍵任務來確定的？圍繞您的軟件，然後最終推動您的增長雄心？

Yes. I can start quickly on the gross margins. I mean, just to confirm, our target for 2020 weighted gross margins of low 70s, basically, 71% remains in place. In order to achieve this, of course, the SaaS/PaaS margins outside of Business Networks need to have a meaningful increase of a couple of percentage points already in 2019 and then the remaining jump in 2020. This will be achieved by the convergence program. So you will see a more natural progress in line with what you have seen in the first 2 quarters in 2018 at the beginning of the year. And then as of Q2, you will see a jump in the productivity in the SaaS/PaaS business area; whereas on the Infrastructure-as-a-Service business and on the Business Networks business, you should see a continued gentle increase, in line with the trajectory that you have seen in 2018. On the HANA Enterprise Cloud, obviously with a larger progress because they were coming from 14%; and on the Business Networks, we are already at 78%. And so in 2019, we will already be extremely close to the 80%. And then in 2020, we will actually move above 80% for Business Networks. That gives you a high-level idea of how this will unfold.

是的。我可以快速開始計算毛利率。我的意思是，只是為了確認，我們的 2020 年加權毛利率目標為 70 多歲，基本上是 71%。當然，為了實現這一目標，業務網絡之外的 SaaS/PaaS 利潤率需要在 2019 年顯著增加幾個百分點，然後在 2020 年實現剩餘的增長。這將通過融合計劃來實現。所以你會看到一個更自然的進展，與你在年初看到的 2018 年前兩個季度的情況一致。然後從第二季度開始，您將看到 SaaS/PaaS 業務領域生產力的飛躍；而在基礎設施即服務業務和業務網絡業務方面，您應該會看到持續的溫和增長，與您在 2018 年看到的軌跡一致。在 HANA 企業雲上，明顯有更大的進步，因為它們來自 14%；在商業網絡上，我們已經達到了 78%。所以在 2019 年，我們已經非常接近 80%。然後在 2020 年，我們實際上將超過 80% 的業務網絡。這讓你對這將如何展開有一個高層次的想法。

And thank you, Mohammed. I have the second part of your question, which is the mission-critical nature of SAP. First of all, having spent last week in Davos, I can tell you when you talk to the CEOs that are running big companies, they're not pessimistic at all. They might see a slightly reduced level of GDP growth, but they see growth. And most of them are feeling pretty good about their businesses, just for the record. And that was a universal comment. In terms of SAP's positioning, database, applications, cloud, business networks, now experienced management, we have the high-value, mission-critical stack that runs companies on an end-to-end basis. And I think what makes SAP so resilient, if you're in tough times, whether you're changing governance and configurations to accommodate Brexit or you're rethinking supply chains to deal with a trading environment conflict with the U.S. and China, all of this involves SAP software to intermediate the situation. So we are mission-critical companies. If they turned off their SAP system, it wouldn't be running. It's not like I can delay buying new phones or PCs. This is how you run your company. I would also double down on the channel, the industry and the ecosystem. We are multiple routes to market now in terms of different channels. We're covering 25 industries, obviously the most global business software company in the world. And I think we've done a very sound job in the ecosystem. When you think about Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Alibaba, not to mention more of the hybrid-cloud providers, such as IBM and Dell, I doubt they have any higher priority than building out their practice with SAP. And that used to be centered on S/4HANA, but it's rapidly expanding to C/4HANA, HANA as the database of the 21st century and now experienced management. I don't think there's a single concern in my voice nor anyone in the SAP company about our ability to grow and take on all challenges.

謝謝你，穆罕默德。我有你問題的第二部分，即 SAP 的關鍵任務性質。首先，上週在達沃斯度過，我可以告訴你，當你與經營大公司的首席執行官交談時，他們一點也不悲觀。他們可能會看到 GDP 增長水平略有下降，但他們看到了增長。他們中的大多數人都對自己的業務感覺良好，只是為了記錄在案。這是一個普遍的評論。在SAP的定位、數據庫、應用、雲、業務網絡，現在經驗豐富的管理方面，我們擁有端到端運行公司的高價值、關鍵任務堆棧。而且我認為是什麼讓 SAP 如此有彈性，如果你處於艱難時期，無論你是在改變治理和配置以適應英國退歐，還是你在重新考慮供應鏈以應對與美國和中國的貿易環境衝突，所有這些這涉及到 SAP 軟件來中介這種情況。所以我們是關鍵任務公司。如果他們關閉他們的 SAP 系統，它就不會運行。我不能推遲購買新手機或個人電腦。這就是您經營公司的方式。我還會加倍關注渠道、行業和生態系統。就不同渠道而言，我們現在有多種上市途徑。我們涵蓋 25 個行業，顯然是世界上最全球化的商業軟件公司。而且我認為我們在生態系統中做得非常好。當你想到微軟、亞馬遜、谷歌、阿里巴巴，更不用說更多的混合雲供應商，如 IBM 和戴爾時，我懷疑他們是否比與 SAP 建立實踐更重要。而那個曾經以S/4HANA為中心，但它正在迅速擴展到C/4HANA，HANA作為21世紀的數據庫，現在經驗豐富的管理。我不認為我的聲音和 SAP 公司的任何人都擔心我們成長和應對所有挑戰的能力。

Our next question is from Walter Pritchard from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Walter Pritchard。

Question, I think we understand pretty clearly the gross margin dynamics that you're talking about related to profitability. Could you talk about sales and marketing, how you see efficiencies playing out in sales and marketing related to the cloud business? You have Qualtrics coming in with higher spending. You've got bigger renewal base. I think that would be helpful in us understanding because that's a big driver.

問題，我認為我們非常清楚你所說的與盈利能力相關的毛利率動態。您能否談談銷售和營銷，您如何看待與雲業務相關的銷售和營銷效率？Qualtrics 的支出更高。你有更大的更新基礎。我認為這將有助於我們理解，因為這是一個很大的驅動力。

Yes. Absolutely. So on sales and marketing, you have seen obviously that, in 2018, we had a very favorable development. We clearly, of course, in past years have invested a lot and we have streamlined our operations. We have simplified the structure, better funded certain specialized sales organizations together to reduce overhead and, of course, also the IFRS 15 accounting change, in particular in sales and marketing, has helped. And our ambition is also in the future to continue to make progress and achieve a gentle further decline in sales and marketing expenses, not at the same significant slope that we have seen in 2018 because that special effect from IFRS 15 is actually turning into a mild headwind as of 2019. But certainly, we continue to focus the organization on reducing overhead, making sure that we optimize the productive feet on the street, the quota-carrier ratios. And that together with the synergies that we expect from Qualtrics, which will not have to add the same amount of headcount for sales and marketing that the would've had to add if they were remaining stand-alone, should give us further improvement. So among the 3 cost ratios, R&D, we will seek to keep it at the same level and stable because investments in innovation are key; and on sales and marketing and G&A, we expect to go -- continued further improvement.

是的。絕對地。所以在銷售和營銷方面，你已經清楚地看到，在 2018 年，我們取得了非常有利的發展。當然，我們顯然在過去幾年進行了大量投資，並且精簡了我們的運營。我們簡化了結構，更好地共同資助某些專業銷售組織以減少管理費用，當然，IFRS 15 會計變更也有所幫助，特別是在銷售和營銷方面。我們的目標也是在未來繼續取得進展並實現銷售和營銷費用的進一步溫和下降，而不是我們在 2018 年看到的同樣顯著的斜率，因為 IFRS 15 的特殊影響實際上正在轉變為溫和的截至 2019 年的逆風。但可以肯定的是，我們繼續將組織的重點放在減少管理費用上，確保我們優化街道上的生產效率，即配額承運人比率。再加上我們期望 Qualtrics 產生的協同效應，如果他們保持獨立，就不必增加相同數量的銷售和營銷人員，這應該會給我們帶來進一步的改進。因此，在 3 個成本比率中，研發，我們將尋求保持在同一水平和穩定，因為創新投資是關鍵；在銷售和營銷以及 G&A 方面，我們希望繼續進一步改進。

And our final question is from Mark Moerdler from Bernstein.

我們的最後一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Mark Moerdler。

I've got one for Bill and one for Luka. Bill, can you give us some more color on the unified customer profile, what you've been doing with Adobe and Microsoft. Does Qualtrics and your drive to C/4HANA and experience change any of this?

我有一份給比爾，一份給盧卡。Bill，你能不能給我們更多關於統一客戶資料的顏色，你一直在與 Adobe 和 Microsoft 一起做的事情。Qualtrics 和您對 C/4HANA 的推動和經驗是否改變了這一切？

And then for Luka, I understand the expectations for license to decline longer term. But given the traditional attach of additional users and modules, et cetera, in major upgrade cycles, how should we think about how, where the new revenue attach will occur with S/4HANA upgrades going forward?

然後對於 Luka，我理解對許可證長期下降的期望。但考慮到在主要升級週期中附加用戶和模塊等的傳統附加，我們應該如何考慮隨著 S/4HANA 升級的推進，新的收入附加將如何發生？

Thank you very much for the question, Mark. First let's talk about C/4HANA. As you know, we acquired Hybris when they were the omnichannel e-commerce leader and undisputed. We acquired Gigya to protect the privacy of the consumers that our customers serve, so they could make the proper offerings and protect data in the appropriate way. We then acquired Callidus for configure, price, quote and the whole sales compensation methodology. Now that comes together with SAP's already strong sales, marketing, field service cloud. So now we have a complete suite to offer multiple cloud options for a customer with C/4HANA. The best thing, everything is on HANA. And HANA is the greatest database in the world. No one questions that.

馬克，非常感謝你提出這個問題。首先讓我們談談C/4HANA。如您所知，我們收購了 Hybris，當時他們是全渠道電子商務的領導者並且無可爭議。我們收購 Gigya 是為了保護我們客戶所服務的消費者的隱私，以便他們能夠提供適當的產品並以適當的方式保護數據。然後，我們收購了 Callidus，用於配置、定價、報價和整個銷售補償方法。現在，再加上 SAP 已經很強大的銷售、營銷、現場服務雲。因此，現在我們擁有一套完整的套件，可為使用 C/4HANA 的客戶提供多種雲選項。最棒的是，一切都在 HANA 上。HANA 是世界上最偉大的數據庫。沒有人質疑這一點。

Now with regard to Qualtrics, now you've got experienced management, which is not like a big integration challenge. Experienced management, it kind of overlays the operating data of a company. What we did with Microsoft and Adobe is basically said, when you think about Azure and you think about the completeness of vision that SAP has on an end-to-end basis, why not give the customer the choice to have an Open Data Initiative where these platforms would make it easy for the customer to do business with us. We also included Adobe in that. So we are 3 companies that have professional courtesy and respect at the leadership level and at the team level. But most importantly, we have great empathy for the customer. So when the Open Data Initiative was offered at Microsoft's event in Orlando some time ago, we said we will give you a single view of the customer. Gigya will give you access to 2 billion profiles. Qualtrics now will give you, since we have them on the portfolio, another 1.5 billion profiles. And between the excellence of SAP's end-to-end, Microsoft's Azure Cloud and certainly some of the great solutions that Adobe offers, we're giving customers choice and we're giving them the best possible route to value. Now keep in mind, this is entirely different than the alternative of some of the dot-com companies. And we think this is competitive advantage for all 3 companies. And most importantly, it favors our customers.

現在關於 Qualtrics，現在你有了經驗豐富的管理，這不像是一個大的整合挑戰。經驗豐富的管理，它有點覆蓋公司的運營數據。我們對 Microsoft 和 Adobe 所做的基本上就是說，當你想到 Azure 並且你想到 SAP 在端到端基礎上的願景的完整性時，為什麼不讓客戶選擇擁有一個開放數據計劃呢？這些平台將使客戶更容易與我們開展業務。我們還將 Adobe 包括在內。因此，我們是 3 家在領導層面和團隊層面都具有專業禮貌和尊重的公司。但最重要的是，我們對客戶抱有極大的同理心。因此，當微軟前段時間在奧蘭多舉行的活動中提出開放數據計劃時，我們說過我們將為您提供客戶的單一視圖。Gigya 將為您提供訪問 20 億個配置文件的權限。現在，Qualtrics 將為您提供另外 15 億份個人資料，因為我們在投資組合中擁有它們。在 SAP 端到端的卓越性能、微軟的 Azure 雲以及 Adobe 提供的一些出色解決方案之間，我們正在為客戶提供選擇，並為他們提供實現價值的最佳途徑。請記住，這與某些互聯網公司的替代方案完全不同。我們認為這對所有 3 家公司來說都是競爭優勢。最重要的是，它有利於我們的客戶。

Yes. And to quickly come back to your question on license and attach place. Interestingly enough, in Q4, as license returned to growth, we had actually various categories in our on-premise solution portfolio that were showing growth. Obviously, our Digital Supply Chain management and S/4HANA business continued to grow in double digits as it has been for the entire year. But we saw in Q4, even in C/4HANA, which was, of course, the business where we doubled down completely in the cloud, positive license growth. And we saw positive license growth in analytics in both of these areas pay out with triple-digit growth in their respective cloud businesses. So it's clear that it's not an either/or. It can be an and. Now for the full year, our core is the One business where we saw still license growth. And we expect that this will continue into 2019. There is absolutely a valid point that the S/4HANA upgrade cycle drives potential for substantial further renovation of a company's IT architecture and gives us multiple cross-selling opportunities. However, I also want to be clear that most of these cross-selling opportunities are giving us a chance to double down in our cloud businesses, whether it's spend management, which is a very natural attach to an S/4HANA upgrade with Ariba and Fieldglass and Concur; whether it's to renovate the HR side of the house as well with SuccessFactors; or whether it's about going into adjacencies and creating and co-innovating on new capabilities with the SAP cloud platform, that's where the big attach opportunities are. And so you can absolutely make the claim that S/4HANA as an upgrade cycle reinvigorates our growth opportunities in the cloud, while we have a great opportunity to continue to enjoy a nice runway on the ERP upgrades.

是的。并快速回到您關於許可證的問題並附上地點。有趣的是，在第四季度，隨著許可恢復增長，我們的內部部署解決方案組合中實際上有多個類別顯示出增長。顯然，我們的數字供應鏈管理和 S/4HANA 業務與全年一樣繼續以兩位數的速度增長。但我們在第四季度看到，即使是在 C/4HANA 中，這當然是我們在雲中完全翻倍的業務，也是積極的許可增長。我們看到這兩個領域的分析許可證正增長，各自的雲業務實現了三位數的增長。所以很明顯，這不是非此即彼。它可以是一個和。現在全年，我們的核心是我們仍然看到許可增長的單一業務。我們預計這將持續到 2019 年。絕對有道理的一點是，S/4HANA 升級週期推動了公司 IT 架構進一步大幅革新的潛力，並為我們提供了多種交叉銷售機會。但是，我還想明確一點，這些交叉銷售機會中的大多數都讓我們有機會在我們的雲業務上加倍努力，無論是支出管理，這是與 Ariba 和 Fieldglass 的 S/4HANA 升級非常自然的聯繫並同意；是否要通過 SuccessFactors 翻新公司的 HR 方面；或者是否是關於進入鄰接關係並使用 SAP 雲平台創建和共同創新新功能，這就是巨大的附加機會所在。因此，您絕對可以聲稱 S/4HANA 作為升級週期重振了我們在雲中的增長機會，同時我們有很好的機會繼續享受 ERP 升級的良好跑道。

Yes. One of the things that has not been reported at all that you might have an interest in is -- let's just take a category like workforce management. If you're a CEO of a company, you might actually think about total workforce management as the imperative versus HR, right? Because you would think about your employees, which is your full-time employees. You might also think about all the contract employees, like the shadow workforce that exists in every company. And now with Qualtrics, we can actually assemble specific real-time feedback on the experience of an employee. You don't have to wait for the annual HR survey. We know exactly how the employees are doing in real-time because those experience systems are connected. And this is going to give us yet another advantage. The same thing could also be said for C/4HANA. The participants in the market today have a system of record, not a system of innovation. When you can compose C/4HANA and you're truly running real-time and you're extending into the actual sentiment analysis of a customer as they're using the product and giving you feedback on that product, you can change the way you're operations are behaving to satisfy that customer and keep the promise of the brand. So I don't think that the CRM system of record that exists in the market today, no matter how many Wall Street Journal pictures are taken of a market share slide that's 20 years old is going to help when you're having a serious sales cycle conversation with people that run businesses. But we're looking forward to that debate.

是的。您可能感興趣的根本沒有被報導的事情之一是——讓我們只考慮像勞動力管理這樣的類別。如果您是一家公司的首席執行官，您實際上可能會認為全面勞動力管理是當務之急，而不是人力資源，對吧？因為你會想到你的員工，也就是你的全職員工。您可能還會想到所有合同工，例如每家公司都存在的影子勞動力。現在有了 Qualtrics，我們實際上可以收集關於員工體驗的具體實時反饋。您不必等待年度人力資源調查。我們實時準確地了解員工的表現，因為這些體驗系統是相互連接的。這將給我們帶來另一個優勢。C/4HANA 也可以說同樣的話。今天的市場參與者有一個記錄系統，而不是一個創新系統。當您可以編寫 C/4HANA 並且真正實時運行並且在客戶使用該產品並向您提供對該產品的反饋時擴展到客戶的實際情緒分析時，您可以改變您的方式他們的運營旨在滿足該客戶並信守品牌承諾。因此，我不認為當今市場上存在的 CRM 記錄系統，無論華爾街日報為 20 年前的市場份額下滑拍攝了多少照片，在您進行認真的銷售時都不會有所幫助與經營企業的人進行循環對話。但我們期待著那場辯論。

This concludes our Q4 earnings call. And we look forward to seeing you in New York City next week on Thursday at our Capital Markets Day. Thanks so much for joining.

我們的第四季度財報電話會議到此結束。我們期待下週四在紐約市的資本市場日見到您。非常感謝您的加入。

Thank you, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. Goodbye.

謝謝。再見。

See you in New York.

紐約見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that now concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。