Banco Santander SA (SAN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Banco Santander's First Half '23 Results Presentation. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎來到桑坦德銀行 23 年上半年業績發布會。 （操作員說明）

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Banco Santander's conference call to discuss our financial results for the first half of 2023. Just as a reminder, both the results report and presentation we will be following today are available to you on our website.

大家早上好，歡迎參加桑坦德銀行的電話會議，討論我們 2023 年上半年的財務業績。提醒一下，我們今天關注的業績報告和演示文稿都可以在我們的網站上找到。

I am joined here today by our CEO, Mr. Héctor Grisi; and our CFO, Mr. José García-Cantera. Following their presentations, we will open the floor for any and all questions you may have in the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

今天我們的首席執行官 Héctor Grisi 先生也來到這裡。以及我們的首席財務官 José García-Cantera 先生。在他們的演講之後，我們將在問答環節回答您可能提出的任何問題。 （操作員說明）

With this, I will hand over to Mr. Grisi. Héctor, the floor is yours.

至此，我將把工作交給格里西先生。赫克托，地板是你的。

Thank you, Begoña. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let me share what we will focus on today. First, I'll talk about our half 1 results on the context of how we are progressing with the strategy we outlined at our Investor Day. José will then review our financial performance in greater detail, and then I'll conclude with a few closing remarks.

謝謝你，貝戈尼亞。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。讓我來分享一下今天我們要關注的內容。首先，我將討論我們的半年業績，以及我們在投資者日概述的戰略的進展情況。然後，何塞將更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績，然後我將發表一些結束語。

Despite the challenges, the financial system experienced at the beginning of the year, Q2 was another strong quarter for Santander, demonstrating the strength and resilience of our strategy and unique business model even in times of market volatility. We delivered a record profit of EUR 2.7 billion, an increase of 14% compared with Q2 in '22. That's plus 17% in constant euros.

儘管金融體系在年初經歷了挑戰，但桑坦德銀行第二季度仍表現強勁，即使在市場波動時期，也展示了我們戰略的實力和彈性以及獨特的業務模式。我們實現了創紀錄的利潤 27 億歐元，與 2022 年第二季度相比增長了 14%。按歐元不變計算，這一數字增加了 17%。

In the first half of '23, profit was EUR 5.2 billion, up 7% supported by robust customer revenue growth. Revenue increased double digits year-on-year, supported by all regions and global businesses. Global and network businesses are contributing around 40% of total group revenue. Our numbers of customers grew by 9 million year-on-year, taking the total to 164 million. And loans increased by 1% and deposits by 5%.

2023 年上半年，利潤為 52 億歐元，在客戶收入強勁增長的推動下增長了 7%。在各地區和全球業務的支持下，收入同比增長兩位數。全球和網絡業務貢獻了集團總收入的 40% 左右。客戶數量同比增加900萬戶，客戶總數達到1.64億戶。貸款增長1%，存款增長5%。

The group continues progressing towards a simpler and more integrated model through One Transformation, the program that is accelerating our structural model change to drive efficiency improvement and growth in profitability. As a result, our efficiency ratio improved 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 44.2%, and our net operating income grew double digits.

該集團通過“One Transformation”繼續朝著更簡單、更集成的模式邁進，該計劃正在加速我們的結構模式變革，以推動效率提高和盈利能力增長。結果，我們的效率同比提高了1.3個百分點，達到44.2%，淨營業收入實現了兩位數增長。

Our return on tangible equity, RoTE, rose 80 basis points year-on-year to 14.5%, while our earnings per share improved 13% year-on-year, supported by greater profit and share buybacks. At the same time, our strong balance sheet with solid and sound capital ratio, liquidity at comfortable levels and robust credit quality, contributed to solid profitable growth, value creation and shareholder remuneration. These results allow us to deliver value creation in terms of TNAV plus DPS year-on-year of 11%, of which represents an increase of more than EUR 6 billion in the first 6 months of the year.

我們的有形股本回報率 RoTE 同比增長 80 個基點，達到 14.5%，而在利潤增加和股票回購的支持下，我們的每股收益同比增長 13%。與此同時，我們強勁的資產負債表、穩健的資本比率、適度的流動性和穩健的信用質量，為穩健的盈利增長、價值創造和股東薪酬做出了貢獻。這些結果使我們能夠以 TNAV 和 DPS 計算，實現價值創造同比增長 11%，其中今年前 6 個月增加了超過 60 億歐元。

Moving on to the income statement. Firstly, remember that as we usually do, we are presenting growth rates, both in current euros and constant euros. This quarter, there was no material difference between them. As I have just mentioned, profit increased in the first half supported by, first of all, a strong line performance with all the regions and global businesses growing; cost in line with our expectations, growing 1% point below the rate of inflation; double-digit growth in net operating income to approximately EUR 16 billion, which demonstrates the strength of our results; and loan loss provisions normalizing in line with our expectations.

繼續看損益表。首先，請記住，正如我們通常所做的那樣，我們以現價歐元和不變歐元呈現增長率。本季度，兩者之間沒有重大差異。正如我剛才提到的，上半年利潤的增長，首先是由於各地區和全球業務的增長，強勁的產品線業績支撐的；成本符合我們的預期，增長速度低於通貨膨脹率1%；淨營業收入實現兩位數增長，達到約 160 億歐元，這證明了我們的業績實力；貸款損失準備金正常化符合我們的預期。

These trends resulted in our highest quarterly profit on record, 4% higher than in Q1, even after the following impacts, net of taxes recorded in Q2. Thus, the SRF contribution of more than EUR 200 million, an additional Swiss mortgage provisions in Poland of EUR 140 million and one-offs in Brazil of EUR 137 million. José will go into more detail on all of these points later on.

這些趨勢導致我們實現了有記錄以來最高的季度利潤，比第一季度高出 4%，即使在受到以下影響（扣除第二季度記錄的稅金）後也是如此。因此，SRF 捐款超過 2 億歐元，瑞士在波蘭的額外抵押貸款準備金為 1.4 億歐元，在巴西的一次性貸款準備金為 1.37 億歐元。何塞稍後將詳細介紹所有這些要點。

This was a great first half that makes us confident that we will deliver our 2023 targets. Good business dynamics are translating into double-digit revenue growth, our efficiency ratio improved as a result of good cost control and revenue trends. Our cost of risk remains contained in line with our target of keeping it below 1.2% at year-end.

上半年的表現非常出色，讓我們對實現 2023 年目標充滿信心。良好的業務動態正在轉化為兩位數的收入增長，由於良好的成本控制和收入趨勢，我們的效率得到了提高。我們的風險成本仍然受到控制，符合年底將其保持在 1.2% 以下的目標。

CET1 was 12.2% after profitably growing our businesses organically and at a comfortable levels, allowing us to accrue funds to meet our shareholders' remuneration targets of a 50% payout. Our RoTE also grew year-on-year to 14.5%, on track to reach our target, that would already be close to 15% if we don't analyze extraordinary banking tax on revenue earned in Spain.

在我們的業務有機增長並達到舒適的水平後，CET1 為 12.2%，使我們能夠積累資金以滿足股東 50% 支付的薪酬目標。我們的 RoTE 也同比增長至 14.5%，有望實現我們的目標，如果我們不分析西班牙收入的特殊銀行稅，該目標已經接近 15%。

As we announced at our Investor Day, we have entered into a new phase of value creation that will help us grow TNAV per share plus DPS at double digits during the -- or through the cycle.

正如我們在投資者日宣布的那樣，我們已經進入了價值創造的新階段，這將幫助我們在整個週期內以兩位數的速度增長每股 TNAV 和 DPS。

I'd like to spend a couple of minutes updating you on the progress of our transformation plan, now that we are 6 months down the road from our Investor Day. We are transforming the bank in the right way. Because we are structurally changing our model to improve both cost and revenue. We are making great progress in the implementation of One Transformation, creating a common operating model and technology for our retail business across our entire footprint to better serve our customers and to improve efficiency and increase the size and profitability of our customer base.

現在距投資者日還有 6 個月的時間，我想花幾分鐘向您介紹我們轉型計劃的最新進展。我們正在以正確的方式改造銀行。因為我們正在從結構上改變我們的模式，以提高成本和收入。我們在實施“一次轉型”方面取得了巨大進展，為整個零售業務創建了一種通用的運營模式和技術，以更好地服務我們的客戶，提高效率，擴大客戶群的規模和盈利能力。

We are delivering across the 3 pillars of One Transformation. In simplification, we already have reduced 5% our number of products, nearly 400 fewer products in 2023. We are progressing in our digital self-service model, increasing the availability of products and services in our digital channels and reducing the use of our contact center by 17% just alone in the first quarter of '23 compared with the same period last year.

我們正在實現“一個轉型”的三大支柱。簡而言之，我們已經減少了 5% 的產品數量，到 2023 年將減少近 400 種產品。我們正在推進數字自助服務模式，提高數字渠道中產品和服務的可用性，並減少聯繫人的使用與去年同期相比，僅 23 年第一季度就增長了 17%。

We are digitalizing the onboarding process end-to-end in Mexico. This initial pilot has resulted in a 36% growth in digital accounts per month compared to those in 2022. And we have already captured around EUR 70 million in savings so far in the U.S. from transformation and simplification initiatives. As you can see on the slide, the initial efficiencies for One Transformation and the impact of our good sprint management in a context of higher risk, higher interest rates, which our CFO will cover later in depth, have already contributed 85 basis points in efficiency improvements.

我們正在墨西哥實現端到端的入職流程數字化。與 2022 年相比，這一初步試點使數字賬戶每月增長 36%。到目前為止，我們已經在美國通過轉型和簡化舉措節省了約 7000 萬歐元。正如您在幻燈片中所看到的，One Transformation 的初始效率以及我們在較高風險、較高利率的背景下良好的衝刺管理的影響（我們的首席財務官稍後將深入介紹）已經為效率貢獻了 85 個基點改進。

Our global and network business keep contributing to the group's profitability and have already delivered another 43 basis points. Multi-Latinas and Multi-Europeans, our initiatives to better serve our multinational corporates and SMEs through regional coverage model, are growing at a very high rate with revenue increasing by more than 70% year-to-date.

我們的全球和網絡業務繼續為集團的盈利能力做出貢獻，並已再實現 43 個基點的增長。 “Multi-Latinas and Multi-Europeans”是我們通過區域覆蓋模式更好地服務跨國企業和中小企業的舉措，該計劃正在以非常高的速度增長，今年迄今為止收入增長了 70% 以上。

In Asset Management, we have progressed to enter the alternative business, starting to serve upper market and institutional segment, and has reached more than 2 billion commitments already.

在資產管理方面，我們已進軍另類業務，開始服務高端市場和機構細分市場，並已達成超過20億的承諾。

In Payments, we have deployed Getnet in Portugal and Argentina in the first half, and we expect to launch in latest in Chile in the second half.

在支付方面，我們上半年已在葡萄牙和阿根廷部署了Getnet，預計下半年將在智利推出。

In Auto, we're increasing managing OEMs and retail relationships globally, expanding our partnerships in Europe to LatAm and the U.S. We have recently onboarded new partners in the U.S., leveraged the existing agreements in Europe, which are expected to materialize in around EUR 4 billion of new business per year. We have also deployed a new pan-regional leasing platform in 2 markets, and more countries will be added throughout '23 and '24.

在汽車領域，我們正在加強對全球 OEM 和零售關係的管理，將我們在歐洲的合作夥伴關係擴展到拉丁美洲和美國。我們最近在美國引入了新的合作夥伴，利用了歐洲的現有協議，預計這些協議將在 4 歐元左右實現每年新業務數億美元。我們還在 2 個市場部署了新的泛區域租賃平台，並將在 23 年和 24 年期間添加更多國家/地區。

Finally, our global technology capabilities have already resulted in 36 basis points improvement in the efficiency ratio. Our global approach to technology has allowed us to capture EUR 80 million in savings this year, mainly driven by: one, efficiencies from the recent development and deployment of Gravity in 2 countries, which has contributed with EUR 31 million in savings in the first half; and new global agreements with vendors, which represent around EUR 40 million in cost reduction year-to-date.

最後，我們的全球技術能力已經使效率提高了 36 個基點。我們的全球技術方法使我們今年節省了 8000 萬歐元，主要是由於：一是近期在 2 個國家開發和部署 Gravity 帶來的效率，上半年節省了 3100 萬歐元;以及與供應商簽訂的新全球協議，今年迄今可節省約 4000 萬歐元的成本。

The actions that we are beginning to carry out as a part of One Transformation, which we are expanding across the group, are starting to be reflected on cost and on operational efficiencies. As you can see on the slide, simplification has already driven significant improvements in our cost and revenue per active customer ratios. The solid progress we are making with the process digitalization and automation to capture efficiencies enables us to spend less time on operations in branches and turn the branch network into a powerful sales and advisory channel.

作為“一次轉型”的一部分，我們開始實施的行動正在整個集團範圍內擴展，這些行動開始反映在成本和運營效率上。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，簡化已經推動我們的每活躍客戶成本和收入比率顯著改善。我們在流程數字化和自動化方面取得的紮實進展，以提高效率，使我們能夠減少在分支機構運營上的時間，並將分支機構網絡轉變為強大的銷售和諮詢渠道。

Portugal has already taken out most of the operational activities from the branches, freeing up branch employees so that they can spend more time supporting customers and commercial activities. We're extrapolating this to other of our banks.

葡萄牙已經將大部分運營活動從分支機構中剝離出來，從而解放了分支機構員工，使他們能夠將更多時間用於支持客戶和商業活動。我們正在將此推斷到我們的其他銀行。

In only 6 months, through One Transformation we have already reduced the number of operational FTEs per million customers by 3%. We're already deploying global tech platforms to improve customer experience, leverage economies of scale and extend best practices. Open digital services, as we call it, ODS, our cutting-edge front-end platform, allow us to deliver a best-in-class omnichannel experience to our customers. At the same time, that Gravity, our award-winning (inaudible) platform, drives significant efficiencies versus mainframe technology.

在短短 6 個月內，通過一次轉型，我們已將每百萬客戶的運營 FTE 數量減少了 3%。我們已經在部署全球技術平台，以改善客戶體驗、利用規模經濟並推廣最佳實踐。開放數字服務（我們稱之為 ODS）是我們的尖端前端平台，使我們能夠為客戶提供一流的全渠道體驗。與此同時，我們屢獲殊榮的（聽不清）平台 Gravity 與大型機技術相比，顯著提高了效率。

We have integrated both in the U.S., so we will operate it on an end-to-end cloud-based retail technology stack core and omnichannel, which is already tested and will result in significant improvements in service quality and customer experience.

我們已經在美國整合了兩者，因此我們將在端到端的基於雲的零售技術堆棧核心和全渠道上運營它，這已經經過測試，將導致服務質量和客戶體驗的顯著改善。

Our global and network businesses continue to contribute to this new phase of value creation. In CIB, we continue growing strongly after record performance in 2022, beating the market. Our global presence has allowed us to grow at 24% year-on-year, well above the average of annual growth target of 10% for the period '22-'25. Because, first of all, we can provide a one-stop shop service to our clients across all geographies, thereby capturing cross-border flows; and because we bring CIB products and services to our wealth, retail and commercial clients across the group and vice versa.

我們的全球和網絡業務繼續為價值創造的新階段做出貢獻。 CIB 在 2022 年創下創紀錄的業績表現後，繼續強勁增長，跑贏了市場。我們的全球業務使我們能夠實現 24% 的同比增長，遠高於 22-25 年期間 10% 的平均年增長目標。因為，首先，我們可以為各個地區的客戶提供一站式服務，從而捕獲跨境流量；因為我們將 CIB 產品和服務帶給整個集團的財富、零售和商業客戶，反之亦然。

As a result, revenue related to these 2 concepts, which we call network revenue, grew 27% year-on-year to EUR 2 billion.

結果，與這兩個概念相關的收入（我們稱之為網絡收入）同比增長了 27%，達到 20 億歐元。

Wealth Management and Insurance grew 25% year-on-year, well above our target, and this has been boosted by the finance benefits obtained from the Santander network effect. A fundamental part of our value proposition in Private Banking is our unique combination of local presence and local reach -- global reach.

財富管理和保險業務同比增長 25%，遠高於我們的目標，這得益於桑坦德銀行網絡效應帶來的財務效益。我們私人銀行價值主張的一個基本部分是我們將本地業務與本地影響力（即全球影響力）獨特地結合在一起。

Our customers can move and transact easily from one country to another, and that's the reason why customers have EUR 50 billion in assets under management booked abroad, 10% higher than 1 year ago.

我們的客戶可以輕鬆地從一個國家轉移到另一個國家並進行交易，這就是客戶在國外預訂的管理資產達 500 億歐元的原因，比一年前增加了 10%。

Our Payments business is also growing very strongly. 2 years ago, we began to move our Payments business onto scale global platforms. And as of today, our Payments Hub platform already manages a significant part of our payments in Eurozone, and we are progressing in another key countries such as Brazil, Mexico and the U.K.

我們的支付業務也增長非常強勁。兩年前，我們開始將支付業務轉移到大規模的全球平台上。截至今天，我們的支付中心平台已經管理了我們在歐元區的很大一部分支付，並且我們正在巴西、墨西哥和英國等其他主要國家取得進展。

We are in the process of expanding our cards platform across the group, delivering real-time digital processing capabilities to our banks, accelerating our business growth as well as generating operational synergies of around EUR 100 million per year during the next 2 years alone. First delivery of the platform will be live in Brazil by the second half of 2023. In Auto, we continue to prioritize profitability of our market share growth in a context of rising interest rates.

我們正在整個集團範圍內擴展我們的卡平台，為我們的銀行提供實時數字處理能力，加速我們的業務增長，並僅在未來兩年內每年產生約 1 億歐元的運營協同效應。該平台的首次交付將於 2023 年下半年在巴西上線。在汽車領域，我們在利率上升的背景下繼續優先考慮市場份額增長的盈利能力。

Our One Transformation plan, which is making us more -- much more efficient and the increasing contribution of our global and network businesses, is helping us reach our 2025 profitability targets across all regions and businesses.

我們的“一次轉型”計劃使我們變得更加高效，並不斷增加我們的全球和網絡業務的貢獻，幫助我們實現所有地區和業務的 2025 年盈利目標。

As I mentioned earlier, the group's RoTE rose 80 basis points year-on-year to 14.5% and would be around 50% if we didn't annualize the extraordinary banking tax in Spain, which is in line with the group's targets for 2022 -- sorry, '23 and '25.

正如我之前提到的，該集團的 RoTE 同比上升 80 個基點至 14.5%，如果我們不將西班牙的特別銀行稅年化，該比率將在 50% 左右，這與該集團 2022 年的目標一致 - - 對不起，'23 和 '25。

José will now go in more detail to the group's first half performance. Please, José?

何塞現在將更詳細地介紹該小組上半場的表現。請問，何塞？

Thank you, Héctor, and good morning, everyone. (technical difficulty) which made up 95% of total revenue (technical difficulty) all the growth in the quarter. This excellent performance was supported by Europe as we take advantage of interest rate tailwinds and Latin America driven by growth in volumes and fees.

謝謝你，埃克托，大家早上好。 （技術難度）佔總收入的95%（技術難度）本季度全部增長。這一出色的業績得到了歐洲的支持，因為我們利用了利率順風，而拉丁美洲則受到了交易量和費用增長的推動。

Digital Consumer Bank benefited from asset repricing actions and gains on financial transactions due to FX hedges.

數字消費銀行受益於資產重新定價行動以及外匯對沖帶來的金融交易收益。

We also saw a strong performance across businesses. The only exception was Auto, the result of lower leasing income in the U.S., which, as in previous quarters, was affected by an increase in the share of end of lease vehicles repurchased at the dealership.

我們還看到了各業務部門的強勁表現。唯一的例外是汽車行業，這是美國租賃收入下降的結果，與前幾個季度一樣，汽車行業受到經銷商回購租賃車輛份額增加的影響。

Revenue at the Corporate Centre also improved, up nearly EUR 400 million due to higher liquidity buffer remuneration and a lower impact from FX hedging, which negatively affected revenue last year.

企業中心的收入也有所改善，由於流動性緩衝報酬增加以及外匯對沖的影響較小（外匯對沖對去年的收入產生了負面影響），收入增加了近 4 億歐元。

Most of our revenue growth came from NII, which continued its upward trend, increasing 6% in the quarter alone, driven in particular by Europe. We see upside potential for further growth in the coming quarters. First half 2023 was 15% higher year-on-year in constant euros with positive sensitivity to raising rates, mainly in Europe and Mexico, and volume growth in Auto, North America and South America, which more than offset negative interest rate sensitivity in Brazil, Chile in Auto.

我們的大部分收入增長來自 NII，它繼續保持上升趨勢，僅本季度就增長了 6%，尤其是在歐洲的推動下。我們看到未來幾個季度進一步增長的上行潛力。 2023 年上半年，以歐元不變計算，同比增長 15%，對加息的敏感度為正，主要在歐洲和墨西哥，汽車、北美和南美的銷量增長，遠遠抵消了巴西的負利率敏感度，智利汽車。

In terms of profitability, we have improved our margins every quarter since the first quarter of 2021. We continue to actively manage or create spreads to make the most of the higher interest rate environment. Gains on credit yields outweighed higher funding costs. Thanks to our disciplined deposit remuneration strategy adapted to each country's specific needs.

在盈利能力方面，自2021年第一季度以來，我們每個季度的利潤率都有所提高。我們繼續積極管理或創造利差，以充分利用較高的利率環境。信貸收益率的收益超過了融資成本的上升。得益於我們嚴格的存款報酬策略，適應了每個國家的具體需求。

In Europe, we are strictly managing deposit costs, especially in Spain and Portugal, where there is excess liquidity in the system and much lower credit demand. The U.K. has a more competitive environment in line with our expectations.

在歐洲，我們嚴格管理存款成本，特別是在西班牙和葡萄牙，系統內流動性過剩，信貸需求低得多。英國的競爭環境更加符合我們的預期。

In LatAm, deposit rates are more directly linked to market interest rates, which implies negative sensitivity and will benefit margins when rates start to decline over the next few months.

在拉丁美洲，存款利率與市場利率更直接相關，這意味著負面敏感性，並且當未來幾個月利率開始下降時，利潤率將受益。

Finally, in the U.S., deposit betas are higher due to the heightened competition following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. All in all, net interest income sensitivity to interest rates has resulted on EUR 500 million above the assumptions that we shared during our Investor Day. Therefore, we are well on track to meet our double-digit NII growth guidance for 2023.

最後，在美國，由於矽谷銀行倒閉後競爭加劇，存款貝塔值更高。總而言之，淨利息收入對利率的敏感性比我們在投資者日分享的假設高出 5 億歐元。因此，我們有望實現 2023 年兩位數的 NII 增長指引。

Turning now to fees. In an environment of low fee growth in general as a result of subpar loan demand, weaker activity, consumer activity and higher margins, our net fee income grew at 4% in the quarter compared with the same quarter last year and 5% in the first half year-on-year.

現在轉向費用。由於貸款需求不佳、經濟活動疲軟、消費者活動和利潤率上升，在費用增長總體較低的環境下，我們本季度的淨費用收入與去年同期相比增長了 4%，第一季度增長了 5%。同比增長一半。

CIB and PagoNxt are leading the way in terms of growth. CIB is increasing its share of leading roles and mandates, and PagoNxt continued to expand total payment volumes, which rose 25% year-on-year and transactions 32%. We also had a very good performance for Cards with turnover increasing 9% year-on-year with fees growing 20%.

CIB 和 PagoNxt 在增長方面處於領先地位。 CIB 正在增加其主導角色和授權份額，PagoNxt 繼續擴大總支付量，同比增長 25%，交易量增長 32%。我們的卡業務也取得了非常好的業績，營業額同比增長 9%，費用增長 20%。

Retail banking also continued to grow well, primarily driven by an increase in customers and transactionality. Wealth Management and Insurance grew less as customers moved to lower-risk fixed income products with lower fees and margins. However, we saw volume improvements in both private banking, net new money of EUR 6.5 billion, and Santander Asset Management over EUR 3 billion net sales.

零售銀行業務也繼續保持良好增長，主要是由於客戶和交易量的增加。隨著客戶轉向費用和利潤率較低的低風險固定收益產品，財富管理和保險業務增長放緩。然而，我們看到私人銀行業務的交易量有所改善，新資金淨額達到 65 億歐元，桑坦德資產管理公司的淨銷售額超過 30 億歐元。

Auto performance year-on-year was affected by the new insurance regulation in Germany in the first quarter, but recovered significantly in the second quarter.

汽車業績同比一季度受到德國保險新規影響，但二季度明顯回升。

In terms of costs, our transformation efforts that Héctor talked to you through earlier are paying off. Despite initial investments, cost in real terms are growing below the rate of inflation across most of our footprint. Reflecting the savings we are beginning to generate and restrict cost control. This, in turn, is reflected in efficiency improvements led by Europe, which improved 7 percentage points, thanks to strong revenue gains, together with a 2% fall in costs in real terms.

就成本而言，埃克託之前與您交談過的我們的轉型努力正在取得回報。儘管進行了初步投資，但我們大部分業務範圍內的實際成本增長速度仍低於通貨膨脹率。反映出我們開始產生的節省和限製成本控制。這反過來又反映在歐洲引領的效率提高上，由於收入強勁增長，效率提高了 7 個百分點，同時實際成本下降了 2%。

As a result, group efficiency is already at the bottom end of our target range where we expect it to remain for the rest of the year. Credit quality remains robust across our footprint. The non-performing loan ratio remained stable in the context of an expected soft lending and strong labor markets as unemployment is a key driver of credit quality.

因此，集團效率已經處於我們目標範圍的底部，我們預計今年剩餘時間將保持這一水平。我們的信用質量依然強勁。在預期的軟貸款和強勁的勞動力市場的背景下，不良貸款率保持穩定，因為失業是信貸質量的關鍵驅動因素。

Of note, were the positive trends in Brazil, driven by the more selective lending policies that we introduced 1.5 years ago. We said in the fourth quarter of last year that we believe the Brazil NPL ratio had already peaked, and trends so far this year support that view, having improved almost 60 basis points year-to-date.

值得注意的是，在我們 1.5 年前推出的更具選擇性的貸款政策的推動下，巴西出現了積極的趨勢。我們在去年第四季度表示，我們認為巴西不良貸款率已經見頂，今年迄今為止的趨勢也支持了這一觀點，今年迄今已改善了近 60 個基點。

In terms of cost of risk, we remain comfortably on track to meet our 2023 target to remain below 1.2%. Spain continues to perform well with a 12-month cost of risk down 16 basis points year-on-year, supported by the quality of the loan book and improving macro conditions. Normalization in the U.S. continues, but is more resilient than anticipated.

就風險成本而言，我們仍有望實現 2023 年保持在 1.2% 以下的目標。西班牙繼續表現良好，12 個月風險成本同比下降 16 個基點，這得益於貸款賬目質量和宏觀條件改善的支撐。美國的正常化仍在繼續，但比預期更具彈性。

Brazil remains elevated due to the unsecured individual borrowers portfolio, but we are seeing signs that cost of risk has stabilized. Brazil's 12-month cost of risk at the end of June was 4.74%. But if we annualize the first 6 months, that improved to 4.5%.

由於無擔保的個人借款人投資組合，巴西的利率仍然較高，但我們看到風險成本已經穩定的跡象。截至6月底，巴西12個月風險成本為4.74%。但如果我們將前 6 個月年化，則該數字將提高至 4.5%。

Mexico is increasing from low levels, mainly due to a change in mix towards unsecured loans, which require more provisions upfront and, obviously, is more profitable. Other units such as the U.K., Portugal and the Digital Consumer Bank, are rising, but from a very low base and should remain below or in line with through the cycle averages.

墨西哥正在從低水平增長，主要是由於無擔保貸款組合的變化，這需要更多的預先準備金，而且顯然利潤更高。英國、葡萄牙和數字消費銀行等其他單位也在上漲，但基數非常低，應該會保持在整個週期平均水平以下或一致。

Moving on to our balance sheet structure. As we have discussed in previous presentations, our credit portfolio is well diversified by segment, product and country.

繼續我們的資產負債表結構。正如我們在之前的演講中所討論的，我們的信貸投資組合按細分市場、產品和國家實現了多元化。

Moreover, our balance sheet is low risk. The portfolio is highly secured with quality collateral and has low average loan to values. Loan growth year-on-year was flat in constant euros as growth in auto and consumer was offset by falls in CIB, mainly in Spain from very high levels in 2022; mortgages, driven by early repayments in Europe; and slowing demand from corporates, also in Europe. We saw positive dynamics in North America, South America and DCB.

此外，我們的資產負債表風險較低。該投資組合擁有高品質抵押品，且平均貸款價值較低。以歐元不變計算，貸款同比增長持平，原因是汽車和消費者的增長被 CIB 的下降所抵消，主要是西班牙的 CIB 從 2022 年的非常高水平下降；抵押貸款，由歐洲提前還款推動；歐洲企業的需求也在放緩。我們在北美、南美和德威看到了積極的動態。

On the other hand, deposits continued to grow well, up 4% year-on-year, following a EUR 3 billion increase in the second quarter in constant euros, reflecting new customer capture with more than offset mortgage prepayments. We saw growth across the bank, concentrated mainly in time deposits as customers seek higher rates.

另一方面，存款繼續保持良好增長，同比增長 4%，第二季度按不變歐元計算增加 30 億歐元，反映出新客戶的吸引超過了抵押貸款提前還款的抵消。我們看到整個銀行的增長，主要集中在定期存款，因為客戶尋求更高的利率。

Our deposit base is diversified and highly stable. Using LCR criteria, 75% of our deposits are transactional, which are stickier, and a high proportion of our deposits from individuals are covered by deposit guarantee schemes. We have not seen any unusual movements in deposits in the year-to-date following market turmoil, particularly in the U.S. In fact, deposits in the U.S. grew in the quarter and remained flattish year-to-date, which implies that we are gaining market share in deposits and with an average cost which was well below our main competitors. Mutual funds have begun to recover, up 4% year-on-year following a year of instability in 2022.

我們的存款基礎多元化且高度穩定。根據LCR標準，我們75%的存款是交易性存款，粘性更強，而且我們很大一部分個人存款受到存款擔保計劃的保障。在市場動蕩之後，今年迄今為止，我們沒有看到存款出現任何異常變動，尤其是在美國。事實上，美國的存款在本季度有所增長，但年初至今保持持平，這意味著我們正在獲得增長存款市場份額和平均成本遠低於我們的主要競爭對手。共同基金在經歷了 2022 年的不穩定之後，已開始復蘇，同比增長 4%。

To close, let me cover capital. Our fully loaded capital ratio remained at a comfortable level of 12.2%, backed by a strong organic capital generation, which was again 10 basis points net of dividend accrual in the quarter. We accounted for the buyout of the minority shareholders in Mexico, which cost 4 basis points in terms of capital. We also had a series of other small positives and negatives this quarter that almost offset each other.

最後，讓我談談資本。在強勁的有機資本生成的支持下，我們的滿載資本比率保持在 12.2% 的舒適水平，本季度扣除應計股息後的資本比率再次高出 10 個基點。我們考慮了墨西哥少數股東的收購，其資本成本增加了 4 個基點。本季度我們還出現了一系列其他小的積極和消極的因素，這些因素幾乎相互抵消。

We continue to focus on profitable growth opportunities, which is reflected in a front book ROA of 2.9%, up from 2.5% in the first half of 2022, which is equivalent to a return on tangible equity in excess of 15%, so in excess of the current group return on tangible equity, which will support profitability going forward.

我們繼續關注盈利增長機會，這體現在賬面資產回報率為 2.9%，高於 2022 年上半年的 2.5%，相當於有形股本回報率超過 15%，因此超過當前集團有形股本回報率，這將支持未來的盈利能力。

Additionally, we continue to increase balance sheet mobilization and the percentage of role of risk-weighted assets with positive economic value added progressing well towards our Investor Day target of 85 in 2025. This increased profitability will help us continue to be capital over the next few years, and we are confident our capital ratio will remain above 12% even after taking into account the final implementation of Basel III on January 1, 2025.

此外，我們繼續增加資產負債表動員和具有正經濟附加值的風險加權資產的比例，朝著 2025 年投資者日目標 85 的目標進展順利。盈利能力的提高將幫助我們在未來幾年繼續成為資本多年來，我們有信心即使考慮到 2025 年 1 月 1 日巴塞爾協議 III 最終實施，我們的資本比率仍將保持在 12% 以上。

Let me turn it back to Héctor for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

讓我把話題轉回埃克托，讓他作總結髮言。謝謝。

Thank you, José. In summary, Q2 of '23 was another strong quarter supported by customer growth, double-digit revenue increase and also backed by strong performance by all the regions and businesses. We are accelerating the structural change to a simpler and more integrated model through One Transformation, spreading the initiatives all across the group, which is driving efficiency improvement and also profitable growth. A rock-solid balance sheet and robust credit quality are contributing to growth, value creation and shareholder remuneration.

謝謝你，何塞。總之，23 年第二季度是又一個強勁的季度，受到客戶增長、兩位數收入增長以及所有地區和業務強勁業績的支持。我們正在通過“一次轉型”加速結構變革，轉向更簡單、更集成的模式，並將這些舉措推廣到整個集團，從而推動效率提高和利潤增長。堅如磐石的資產負債表和穩健的信用質量有助於增長、價值創造和股東薪酬。

In summary, we have a very strong first half of the year, and we are confident that we will achieve our 2023 targets and remunerate our shareholders in line with our 50% payout policy, supported by our global and network businesses while we continue with our structural model transformation. We see offset potential for further net interest income growth in the coming quarters as tailwinds in Europe and Mexico are expected to remain and inflation and interest rates in our largest Latin American countries seem to have peaked or nearly peaked, resulting in a positive outlook for margins in the next 6 to 9 months.

總而言之，我們的上半年表現非常強勁，我們有信心在我們的全球和網絡業務的支持下，實現 2023 年的目標，並按照 50% 的派息政策向股東支付報酬，同時繼續我們的業務結構模型轉換。我們認為，未來幾個季度淨利息收入進一步增長的潛力將被抵消，因為歐洲和墨西哥的順風預計將持續存在，而我們最大的拉丁美洲國家的通脹和利率似乎已見頂或接近見頂，從而導致利潤率前景樂觀在接下來的6到9個月內。

Cost of risk is normalizing in line with our expectation in a context of an expected soft landing of the economy and strong labor markets. We continue to see resilient customer and corporate behavior in most of the geographies. Group RoTE has reached 14.5% in the first half, and we expect to close above 15% at the end of the year. All in all, our TNAV plus cash dividend is growing at a double-digit, well on track with our target of average growth through the cycle.

在經濟預期軟著陸和勞動力市場強勁的背景下，風險成本正在正常化，符合我們的預期。我們在大多數地區繼續看到有彈性的客戶和企業行為。上半年集團RoTE已達到14.5%，我們預計年底將達到15%以上。總而言之，我們的 TNAV 加現金股息正以兩位數增長，完全符合我們整個週期平均增長的目標。

And now we would be happy to take any of your questions. Thank you.

現在我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。謝謝。

Let's open the Q&A session, please.

請讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We already have the first question from Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank BPI.

（操作員說明）我們已經收到 CaixaBank BPI 的 Carlos Peixoto 提出的第一個問題。

The first question would actually be on Brazil, margin stabilized quarter-on-quarter, still a bit under pressure year-on-year. I was wondering what type of evolution you expect for the rest of the year? And also on cost of risk, what's the outlook there?

第一個問題實際上是關於巴西，利潤率環比穩定，但同比仍然有點壓力。我想知道您預計今年剩餘時間會發生什麼類型的演變？還有風險成本，前景如何？

Then the second question would actually be on capital. So basically, the capital generation in this quarter was only 3 basis points, a bit below the run rate you have discussed in previous quarters. I reckon that this partially has to do with the Mexico minorities incorporation, but I was wondering how do you see this evolving throughout the rest of the year? And also, what is behind the increase in RWAs in this quarter?

那麼第二個問題實際上就是資本問題。所以基本上，本季度的資本生成只有 3 個基點，略低於您在前幾個季度討論的運行率。我認為這部分與墨西哥少數民族合併有關，但我想知道您如何看待今年剩餘時間的演變？另外，本季度 RWA 增加的原因是什麼？

Thank you, Carlos. What I'll do is I'll [answer] the first question on Brazil, we'll give you a comment on capital and then José will tell you a little bit about what's going on with increasing RWA, okay?

謝謝你，卡洛斯。我要做的是[回答]關於巴西的第一個問題，我們會給你一個關於資本的評論，然後何塞會告訴你一些關於增加 RWA 的情況，好嗎？

In terms of the Brazil margin quarter-on-quarter, as we said basically, is explained by the following. On loans, since 2021, we have become much more conservative and growth -- and grown volumes very selectively, changing the loan mix to lower risk, okay? So we mainly get out of credit cards, went on to Consignado, Auto loans and mortgages. On deposits, also the fast increase in rates has meant a rapid rise in the cost of deposits, okay, as well as a change of the mix on the deposits.

就巴西季度利潤率而言，正如我們基本上所說，解釋如下。在貸款方面，自 2021 年以來，我們變得更加保守和增長——並且非常有選擇性地增加數量，改變貸款組合以降低風險，好嗎？所以我們主要擺脫信用卡，轉向Consignado、汽車貸款和抵押貸款。在存款方面，利率的快速上漲也意味著存款成本的快速上升，以及存款結構的變化。

Rates are staying higher for longer has prevented that the cost of deposits from coming down, impacting NII. Remember that in Brazil, we have negative sensitivity to rates, okay? So Brazil NII in the second quarter of '23 is already flat, okay? As we said, and José was very precise on that, the worst seems behind us, and we are already seeing a reduction on the average cost of deposits and we also see an improved customer spread, okay? So we expect NII in the second half of '23 to be higher than the first half of the year, leading to a flat NII in the year with a substantial improvement in '24, okay?

利率長時間保持較高水平阻礙了存款成本下降，從而影響了NII。請記住，在巴西，我們對利率具有負面敏感性，好嗎？所以巴西 23 年第二季度的 NII 已經持平了，好嗎？正如我們所說，何塞對此非常準確，最糟糕的情況似乎已經過去，我們已經看到平均存款成本下降，而且我們還看到客戶利差有所改善，好嗎？所以我們預計23年下半年的NII會高於上半年，導致全年NII持平，而24年會有大幅改善，好嗎？

In terms of the cost of risk, not only the macro outlook is improving, but since '21, I explained, we've been very selective in the approach of the new lending extension and focusing to more secure and higher rate customers, as I explained, okay? This is showing good results, and we believe the worst, as I said repeatedly, is worst -- sorry, the worst is behind now.

就風險成本而言，不僅宏觀前景正在改善，而且自 21 世紀以來，我解釋說，我們在新貸款延期的方法上一直非常有選擇性，並專注於更安全和更高利率的客戶，正如我所解釋的那樣解釋一下，好嗎？這顯示出良好的結果，我們相信，正如我反复說過的那樣，最糟糕的情況就是最糟糕的——抱歉，最糟糕的情況現在已經過去了。

Cost of risk in the second quarter is already improving versus the first quarter, and the vintages are showing really good performance, as we have seen. So we don't expect cost of risk that will deteriorate in Brazil in '23 versus '22, excluding the one-off that -- which implies staying close to around 4.6%, okay?

與第一季度相比，第二季度的風險成本已經有所改善，並且正如我們所看到的，年份的表現非常好。因此，我們預計 23 年巴西的風險成本不會比 22 年惡化，排除一次性風險成本，這意味著保持在 4.6% 左右，好嗎？

And then to be on capital, to be very precise, we expect to generate at least 10 basis points of organic capital on average per quarter with the current shareholder remuneration policy that we put in place. As a result, we will be on track to meet our target to be above 12%, even when the final implementation of Basel III comes into effect on January 1 on '25, okay?

然後在資本方面，準確地說，我們預計根據我們目前製定的股東薪酬政策，平均每個季度將產生至少 10 個基點的有機資本。因此，即使巴塞爾協議 III 的最終實施將於 25 年 1 月 1 日生效，我們也將有望實現 12% 以上的目標，好嗎？

And with that, I don't know, José, if you can comment on RWAs, please.

說到這裡，我不知道，José，您是否可以對 RWA 發表評論。

Thank you. So Carlos, you're right, loan growth was 0, but risk-weighted assets grew more or less 2%. Half of that growth is due to FX as we consolidate the Latin America, basically, the peso and the Brazilian-based assets into the group. Of the other half -- half of the other half, so a substantial amount corresponds to a stock finance. And this is due to the recovery of the new auto business in Europe, and this will eventually translate into auto loans. So this is obviously short term that will eventually lead higher profitability going forward.

謝謝。所以卡洛斯，你是對的，貸款增長是 0，但風險加權資產增長了 2% 左右。其中一半的增長歸功於外匯，因為我們將拉丁美洲（基本上是比索和巴西的資產）整合到該集團中。另一半——另一半的一半，所以很大一部分對應於股票融資。而這得益於歐洲新增汽車業務的複蘇，而這最終將轉化為汽車貸款。因此，這顯然是短期的，最終將帶來更高的盈利能力。

When we look at the outlook, as Héctor said, we don't expect any significant regulatory or supervisory capital impact in the second half of the year. We see no inorganic charges in the second half of the year. Obviously, it looks like the available-for-sale portfolio valuation also will stay relatively stable. We see improving profitability, as we have mentioned, particularly driven by higher NII in the second half. And risk-weighted assets that should be probably under control. So net-net, we see a stronger capital -- organic capital generation in the next couple of quarters, again, leading to a capital that will remain well above 12% every quarter and building up sufficient capital to be above 12% post-Basel III.

正如赫克託所說，當我們展望前景時，我們預計下半年不會出現任何重大的監管或監督資本影響。我們認為下半年沒有無機費用。顯然，可供出售投資組合的估值似乎也將保持相對穩定。正如我們所提到的，我們看到盈利能力有所改善，特別是在下半年NII 上升的推動下。以及應該受到控制的風險加權資產。因此，淨淨來看，我們看到了更強勁的資本——未來幾個季度的有機資本生成，這將導致每個季度的資本都將遠高於 12%，並在巴塞爾之後積累足夠的資本以高於 12%三．

Next question from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

A couple of questions, please, from my side on U.S. and Spain. U.S. has obviously done much better in provisions. I know you've touched on it, Héctor, but maybe you can give a bit more detail as to why the provision was so low in the quarter. Is it collateral? Is it default rates? And when you think about the rest of the year, maybe you can update us about the guidance, what do you expect in cost of risk for the full year? I think you gave us some color in Q1, maybe an updated view on the moving parts there.

我這邊有幾個關於美國和西班牙的問題。美國在規定方面顯然做得更好。我知道你已經提到過這個問題，Hector，但也許你可以提供更多細節來說明為什麼本季度的準備金如此之低。是抵押品嗎？是違約率嗎？當您考慮今年剩餘時間時，也許您可以向我們更新有關指導的信息，您對全年風險成本的預期是多少？我認為你在第一季度給了我們一些顏色，也許是對那裡移動部件的更新視圖。

And the second question on Spain, deposits much more stable this quarter, previous quarter. I wonder if you can give again a bit more color on the deposit migration remuneration. And when do you -- would you expect NII to peak in Spain? I'm extrapolating Spain, Portugal, which I assume it's the same dynamics.

關於西班牙的第二個問題，本季度的存款比上一季度穩定得多。我想知道您是否可以再對存款遷移報酬給予更多的說明。您預計西班牙的 NII 何時會達到頂峰？我推斷西班牙和葡萄牙，我認為這也是同樣的動態。

Thank you, Alvaro. Okay, let me give you outlook in the U.S., okay? And I explained it, it's basically the same dynamic that I've explained to you on the first quarter, okay? Credit provision, as you know, decreased as credit quality is remaining robust and credit near charge-offs actually, what we call realized losses, show better-than-anticipated performance. And this is basically on the back. Used prices continue to be strong, okay, as I explained, and declining at a slower pace than we previously anticipated.

謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。好吧，讓我給你介紹一下美國的前景，好嗎？我解釋過，這基本上與我在第一季度向你解釋的動態相同，好嗎？如您所知，信貸撥備減少，因為信貸質量保持強勁，信貸實際上接近沖銷，即我們所說的已實現損失，表現出好於預期的表現。這基本上是在背面。正如我所解釋的，二手價格繼續強勁，並且下降速度比我們之前預期的要慢。

The change in auto loans portfolio mix towards small prime. Do you remember that I told you that before 2018, we had a lot more sub-prime than prime and the change on the mix has helped. Also, we have robust and better-than-expected labor market in the U.S., okay, which is sustaining that, okay? And auto customers that are delinquent, exactly as I was explaining in the first quarter, for more than 90 days are rolling into charge-off status at historical low levels, okay? Normally, they were above 90%, 95%. Last quarter, they were around 59%; this quarter, around 67%, okay? So it's still much better than we expect and much better than it was actually happening pre-COVID, okay?

汽車貸款組合組合向小額優質貸款的轉變。你還記得嗎，我告訴過你，在 2018 年之前，我們的次貸比優質貸款多得多，而組合的變化也有所幫助。此外，我們在美國擁有強勁且好於預期的勞動力市場，這正在維持這一點，好嗎？正如我在第一季度所解釋的那樣，拖欠超過 90 天的汽車客戶將進入歷史低水平的沖銷狀態，好嗎？一般情況下，都在90%、95%以上。上個季度，這一比例約為 59%；這個季度大約是 67%，好嗎？所以它仍然比我們預期的要好得多，也比新冠疫情之前實際發生的情況要好得多，好嗎？

And in 2023, we expect cost of risk to continue on the normalization at around 2%. And after 2 years of artificially low figures, given COVID, et cetera, as I was saying, normalized level should be below pre-pandemic. Cost of risk at around -- remember, pre-pandemic was around 285. It's never going to get there, okay, because of the change of mix and what I was explaining, okay?

到 2023 年，我們預計風險成本將繼續正常化在 2% 左右。正如我所說，在經歷了兩年的人為壓低數字之後，考慮到新冠肺炎等因素，正常化水平應該低於大流行前。風險成本約為 - 請記住，大流行前約為 285。它永遠不會到達那裡，好吧，因為組合的變化以及我所解釋的內容，好嗎？

In terms of the Spain, okay, in Spain, the deposits, I mean, continue to be stable, okay, at around -- we have around [EUR 299 billion,] okay? We have excess liquidity in Santander Spain to the LTVs around 78%, and this is the case for the whole Spanish system that is around 80%. Quarterly decline is most linked to CIB deposits, flat in retail in the quarter despite the early repayments of mortgages, okay, compared to the same period of 2022 and the increased volume of deposits moving off balance sheet products.

就西班牙而言，好吧，我的意思是，在西班牙，存款繼續保持穩定，好吧，大約——我們有大約[2990億歐元]，好嗎？西班牙桑坦德銀行的 LTV 流動性過剩，約為 78%，整個西班牙系統的流動性約為 80%。季度下降主要與 CIB 存款有關，儘管與 2022 年同期相比，抵押貸款提前還款，而且從資產負債表產品中轉移的存款量有所增加，但本季度零售業持平。

Also, what we see between the first half of '23 versus the first half of '22 is plus 0.9%, okay? So we have a different change of the mix with time deposits going up at around 61% up year-on-year, while demand deposits are going down around 5% on the back of the higher rates, driven by the growth of CIB, which allows us to maintain also our -- and maintain a stable net liquidity position, okay? In terms of what I was saying, NII, we don't expect to peak yet. I mean, we have still revisions, and I will have José explain you in detail exactly how we see NII evolution in Spain.

另外，我們看到 23 年上半年與 22 年上半年之間增加了 0.9%，好嗎？因此，我們的結構發生了不同的變化，定期存款同比增長約 61%，而在 CIB 增長的推動下，活期存款則因利率上升而下降約 5%。使我們能夠保持穩定的淨流動性頭寸，好嗎？就我所說的 NII 而言，我們預計還不會達到頂峰。我的意思是，我們仍有修訂，我將讓 José 向您詳細解釋我們如何看待西班牙的 NII 演變。

Alvaro, let me talk about the Corporate Centre because Santander is, say, more than Spain because this is going to give you a better view of our euro sensitivity to rates in Spain. So we have assets of EUR 330 billion, 60% floating, 40% fixed. This fixed includes the ALCO, which is EUR 27 billion that we've been buying recently with an average duration of 6 years and an interest rate of over 3%. We also have intra-group transactions, et cetera, money markets that are fixed, but these are very short term. So they will reprice a short-term EURIBOR actually goes up.

阿爾瓦羅，讓我談談企業中心，因為桑坦德銀行比西班牙更重要，因為這將使您更好地了解我們的歐元對西班牙利率的敏感性。因此，我們擁有 3300 億歐元的資產，其中 60% 是浮動資產，40% 是固定資產。這個固定資產包括 ALCO，這是我們最近購買的 270 億歐元，平均期限為 6 年，利率超過 3%。我們還有集團內部交易等，固定的貨幣市場，但這些都是非常短期的。因此，他們將重新定價短期 EURIBOR 實際上會上漲。

Of the floating EUR 200 billion, EUR 65 billion will reprice or reprices with 12-month EURIBOR. We expect the -- if we use today's 12-month EURIBOR compared with the average of the first half. So let's assume that the EURIBOR remains flat in the first half of next year, we have at least 50 basis points pickup in the repricing of this part of the portfolio next year. And then we have 60 -- sorry, EUR 30 billion with reprices with a 6 months, EUR 40 billion with the 3 months and EUR 65 billion with 1 month.

在2000億歐元浮動資金中，650億歐元將重新定價或以12個月期EURIBOR重新定價。如果我們使用今天的 12 個月 EURIBOR 與上半年的平均值進行比較，我們預計會出現以下情況。因此，假設 EURIBOR 在明年上半年保持持平，明年這部分投資組合的重新定價至少會上漲 50 個基點。然後我們有 60 個——對不起，300 億歐元在 6 個月內重新定價，400 億歐元在 3 個月內重新定價，650 億歐元在 1 個月內重新定價。

So we would still expect significant repricing upwards in the first half of next year as interest rates in Europe may go up once or twice. But as they stabilize, we will still have significant repricing of a big chunk of the portfolio in the first half of next year. So obviously, the asset yields are expected still to expand well into 2024.

因此，我們仍預計明年上半年將出現大幅重新定價，因為歐洲的利率可能會上漲一兩次。但隨著它們穩定下來，我們仍將在明年上半年對投資組合的很大一部分進行重大重新定價。顯然，資產收益率預計到 2024 年仍將擴大。

Obviously, margins will depend on the cost of deposits, but we are, as Héctor said, we are not seeing any pressures today to increase the remuneration of retail deposits. We are already paying almost LIBOR for CIB deposits, institutional deposits, but we don't see any pressures on the retail side of deposits, which means that probably the peak in net interest margins will not happen until well into 2024 in the Eurozone.

顯然，利潤率將取決於存款成本，但正如赫克託所說，我們今天沒有看到任何增加零售存款報酬的壓力。我們已經為 CIB 存款和機構存款支付了幾乎 LIBOR 的價格，但我們沒有看到存款零售方面有任何壓力，這意味著歐元區的淨息差可能要到 2024 年才會達到峰值。

Next question from (inaudible)

下一個問題來自（聽不清）

I wanted to ask about NII in the U.K. and in the U.S. If you can please update your guidance in the U.K., I see lending is weak falling, local mortgage market is declining, asset spreads are low, the deposit beta is still relatively low. How do you see all this dynamics going forward on the NII? And also in the U.S., you are gaining market share, but are you gaining new clients or are you paying up for deposits? How do you see the EBITDA compared to the local peers and also in absolute terms going forward and the NII there in the U.S.?

我想問一下英國和美國的 NII 情況。如果您能更新您在英國的指導，我認為貸款疲弱下降，當地抵押貸款市場正在下降，資產利差較低，存款貝塔值仍然相對較低。您如何看待 NII 的所有這些動態？同樣在美國，您正在獲得市場份額，但您是在贏得新客戶還是在支付存款？與當地同行相比，您如何看待未來的 EBITDA 以及美國的 NII 的絕對值？

Thank you, Francisco. Okay. Let me give you the details, okay? In the -- let's talk about -- first about the U.K. NII was up double digit in the first half of '23, okay? It was driven mainly by higher rates and the strong focus on managing spreads and profitability, although the U.K. tends to be more competitive than other European markets, as you know, okay? So we're putting profitability ahead of market share, okay? And we have a lower risk appetite, but we're expecting good performance to continue, leading to a NIM expansion, okay?

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。好的。讓我告訴你細節，好嗎？首先，我們來談談英國的 NII 在 23 年上半年增長了兩位數，好嗎？這主要是由較高的利率以及對管理利差和盈利能力的強烈關注推動的，儘管英國往往比其他歐洲市場更具競爭力，正如你所知，好嗎？因此，我們將盈利能力置於市場份額之上，好嗎？我們的風險偏好較低，但我們預計良好的表現將持續，從而導致淨息差擴張，好嗎？

So we expect it to stabilize towards the second half, okay, 2023 with a high single-digit growth on higher rates and despite the lower volumes that we have because of what I just explained about profitability, okay? In the second quarter, NII was flattish, okay? Higher yields on loans did not offset the higher cost of retail funding and the slowdown in new originations, okay?

因此，我們預計到 2023 年下半年，它會穩定下來，在利率較高的情況下實現高個位數增長，儘管由於我剛才解釋的盈利能力，我們的銷量有所下降，好嗎？第二季度，NII 持平，好嗎？貸款收益率的上升並沒有抵消零售融資成本的上升和新貸款發放的放緩，好嗎？

In terms of the betas, José will tell you afterwards that I tell you about what's going on in the U.S. In terms of the U.S., overall, as you have seen, has done better than expected given the change in mix towards prime, okay, as I explained in detail, lower yield, but also better risk profile and the lower credit provisioning is helping us, okay?

就貝塔測試而言，何塞隨後會告訴你，我會告訴你美國正在發生的事情。就美國而言，總體而言，正如你所看到的，考慮到向黃金組合的變化，它的表現比預期要好，好吧正如我詳細解釋的那樣，較低的收益率、更好的風險狀況以及較低的信貸撥備正在幫助我們，好嗎？

NII is flattish in the quarter and year-on-year on funding pressures on the wholesale and retail. As you know, a lot of this is funded by wholesale as well and a common trend across the sector, which has been partially offset by higher yields that we have.

由於批發和零售的資金壓力，NII 本季度和同比持平。如您所知，其中很多資金也是由批發提供的，也是整個行業的共同趨勢，但我們的收益率較高，部分抵消了這一趨勢。

Santander U.S. betas are above what we expected, but lower than the average of our peers, just to give you exactly what's going on. And we expect NII to be down mid-single digits on lower originations and also the higher funding pressure, again, in line with the peers. However, given the strong behavior that we have on the labor market and seeing the performance on the first half, the U.S. NII could do better than we expect, okay? U.S. NII is not the only one that has done better. Cost of risk and profitability are also better than expected in the country, okay?

桑坦德銀行美國貝塔值高於我們的預期，但低於同行的平均水平，只是為了讓您準確了解正在發生的情況。我們預計，由於起始資金減少以及融資壓力加大，NII 將下降至個位數左右，這與同行一致。然而，考慮到勞動力市場的強勁表現以及上半年的表現，美國NII 的表現可能會比我們預期的更好，好嗎？美國國家信息基礎設施並不是唯一做得更好的國家。國內的風險成本和盈利能力也好於預期，好嗎？

So José, I don't know, if you can comment on the betas, please?

José，我不知道，您是否可以對測試版發表評論？

On the betas, in the U.K., when we look at the cost of deposits today relative to the level of rates today, that's around slightly below 30%. It's increasing slightly in the quarter 3 percentage points, we still think that, that will continue. So the U.K. is a market with less excess liquidity than Spain, for instance. So we would expect, as Héctor said, margins probably -- they were stable in the second quarter relative to the first, and we would expect them to remain more or less flattish in the third and probably slightly going down from there.

在英國的測試版中，當我們查看當前的存款成本相對於當前利率水平時，大約略低於 30%。本季度略有增長 3 個百分點，我們仍然認為這種情況將會持續下去。因此，英國是一個流動性過剩較少的市場，例如西班牙。因此，正如埃克託所說，我們預計，第二季度的利潤率可能與第一季度相比保持穩定，我們預計第三季度的利潤率將或多或少保持持平，並可能會略有下降。

In the U.S., as Héctor said, we kept our deposits flat paying less than our regional bank competitors. The beta in the U.S. is 36.8%, up 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. So after the spike that we saw in February, March, the betas in the U.S. have remained very stable. And we are actually increasing deposit market share at a lower cost than our competitors.

正如赫克託所說，在美國，我們的存款保持穩定，支付的費用低於我們的區域銀行競爭對手。美國的貝塔率為36.8%，環比上升2個百分點。因此，在我們看到 2 月、3 月的峰值之後，美國的貝塔值一直保持非常穩定。事實上，我們正​​在以比競爭對手更低的成本增加存款市場份額。

Next question from Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Ignacio Ulargui。

I have 2 questions. One is on the Spanish loan book. You could update a bit on the trends that we have seen in the quarter, year-on-year rate, you see an 8% decline. If you could elaborate a bit on what are the dynamics there and what we should expect going forward?

我有 2 個問題。其中之一在西班牙貸款簿上。您可以更新一下我們在本季度看到的趨勢，同比下降 8%。您能否詳細說明一下那裡的動態以及我們未來應該期待什麼？

And the second question is a bit at a group level. If I just look to the first half cost of risk is around 106 basis points. You are sticking to the guidance below 120 basis points. I mean, is there any reason besides the U.S. where we could see some deterioration in the second half that makes you to keep that conservative guidance, which could imply a run rate of around 135 basis points, 140 basis points in the second half to make the 120 basis points?

第二個問題有點在團體層面。如果我只看上半年，風險成本約為 106 個基點。您堅持低於 120 個基點的指引。我的意思是，除了美國之外，還有什麼原因可以讓我們看到下半年的情況有所惡化，從而讓你保持保守的指導，這可能意味著下半年的運行率約為 135 個基點，140 個基點120個基點？

Thank you, Ignacio. Let me tell you a little bit about what's the dynamics on the Spanish loan book, and then José will talk about your second question, okay? In the Spanish loan book, the dynamic that we have seen is quite clear, okay? We have seen low demand of credit, okay, which is impacting us a little bit, mainly also, we have seen an increase on the prepayment mainly on the mortgages, okay, because of the increased rates. Remember that a lot of a big percentage of our portfolio is on variable rates and floating rate. So in that sense, that's a dynamic that we have seen. And also we have seen, due to the increased rates, the corporates and the SMEs being more cautious in new credit demand, okay? And the dynamics we believe throughout the year, continuing that way. Let's see what happens at the beginning of the year and also if we can see more confidence a little bit on investment, okay? But now we see the dynamics in that way.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。讓我告訴你一些關於西​​班牙貸款簿的動態，然後何塞將談論你的第二個問題，好嗎？在西班牙貸款書中，我們看到的動態非常清楚，好嗎？我們看到信貸需求低迷，這對我們產生了一點影響，主要是我們還看到預付款增加，主要是抵押貸款，因為利率上升。請記住，我們投資組合的很大一部分是浮動利率和浮動利率。從這個意義上說，這就是我們所看到的動態。我們還看到，由於利率上升，企業和中小企業對新的信貸需求更加謹慎，好嗎？我們相信全年的動力都會以這種方式持續下去。讓我們看看今年年初會發生什麼，以及我們是否能看到投資信心增強一點，好嗎？但現在我們以這種方式看到動態。

Please, José, on the second one?

何塞，請問第二個嗎？

Ignacio, cost of risk. Well, we see cost of risk normalizing in the U.S., as we discussed, also in Mexico where we are seeing the normalization of the cost of risk as we change the business mix. In Auto, it will very much depend on the amount of loans that we are able to sell, but it should remain stable in the second half of the year. So we feel very comfortable that we will beat our 1.2% guidance for the end of the year. We expect it to be better than the 1.2% that we gave as a guidance.

伊格納西奧，風險成本。正如我們所討論的，我們在美國看到風險成本正常化，在墨西哥，隨著我們改變業務組合，我們也看到風險成本正常化。在汽車領域，這在很大程度上取決於我們能夠出售的貸款數量，但下半年應該會保持穩定。因此，我們對年底將超過 1.2% 的指導值感到非常放心。我們預計它會好於我們給出的指導值 1.2%。

Next question from Sofie Peterzens from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sofie Peterzens。

Yes, this is Sofie from JPMorgan. So could you just explain that the difference between your reported net interest income, which was EUR 10.5 billion on the underlying, EUR 10.7 billion, what explains the EUR 200 million delta? And are there any more one-offs in net interest income that we should be aware of coming in the short term?

是的，這是摩根大通的蘇菲。那麼您能否解釋一下，您報告的淨利息收入（基礎利息收入為 105 億歐元）與 107 億歐元（107 億歐元）之間的差異，如何解釋 2 億歐元的增量？短期內我們應該注意的淨利息收入是否還會出現更多一次性的情況？

And then the second question would be on the capital headwinds. You mentioned that you expect it to remain above 12%. But could you just outline what capital or core equity (inaudible) headwinds you are expecting in the coming quarters or at least on the year-end? And also, if you could remind us what the Basel IV impacts are?

第二個問題是關於資本逆風。您提到預計該比例將保持在 12% 以上。但您能否概述一下您預計在未來幾個季度或至少在年底會出現哪些資本或核心股權（聽不清）阻力？另外，您能否提醒我們巴塞爾 IV 的影響是什麼？

Okay. Thank you, Francois. So José will explain you the NII evolution. On capital, let me reiterate exactly what I said, and then José can expand a little bit. So as I told you, we expect to generate at least 10 basis points of organic capital on average per quarter, okay? And we -- that is included with the current remuneration policy that we have, okay? So as a result, what I told you, we will be on track to meet our target to be above 12%, also with the final implementation of Basel III comes into effect in 2025 to be precise on that point.

好的。謝謝你，弗朗索瓦。 José 將向您解釋 NII 的演變。關於資本，讓我重申一下我所說的，然後何塞可以擴展一點。正如我告訴你的，我們預計每季度平均產生至少 10 個基點的有機資本，好嗎？我們——這包含在我們當前的薪酬政策中，好嗎？因此，正如我告訴你的那樣，我們將有望實現 12% 以上的目標，而且準確地說，巴塞爾 III 的最終實施將於 2025 年生效。

José will comment a little bit more on that and explain you the NII evolution.

José 將對此進行更多評論，並向您解釋 NII 的演變。

Yes. So Sofie, as I said, we don't expect any headwinds -- significant headwinds from any of the 3 big components that could affect capital, regulatory or supervisory charges, inorganic charges or other charges, basically market-related pensions, intangibles, we don't see significant headwinds in the second half of the year.

是的。因此，索菲，正如我所說，我們預計不會出現任何阻力——來自可能影響資本、監管或監督費用、無機費用或其他費用、基本上與市場相關的養老金、無形資產的三大組成部分中的任何一個的重大阻力，我們今年下半年不會出現重大阻力。

In terms of Basel III, we have seen the proposal is still a proposal. So we need to wait to see exactly how is -- how the regulation is approved. We still think we will have an impact of between 40 to 60 basis points probably. And again, depending on how this is finally written, probably towards the lower end of that range if things are confirmed when the final proposal is approved.

就巴塞爾協議III而言，我們看到該提案仍然是一個提案。因此，我們需要等待，看看該法規的批准情況到底如何。我們仍然認為我們可能會產生 40 到 60 個基點的影響。再說一次，取決於最終如何編寫，如果最終提案獲得批准時事情得到確認，可能會達到該範圍的下限。

In terms of the accounting, well, I think Investor Relations will give you more details about this. It's pretty detailed. But in the first half, there is no impact, no adjustments between net interest income, statutory and underlying. Zero. What happened in the first quarter is we had a positive adjustment of EUR 211 million, and we have reversed exactly the same amount in the second quarter, which, by the way, in terms of the EUR 20 billion, it's a very small amount. So no adjustment to NII in the first half. What we added to underlying in the first quarter was reversed in the second quarter. There are other adjustments in the P&L, but basically netting out, in most cases, what happened in the first quarter in the second quarter. But Investor Relations will give you all the details line by line of the differences between the first and the second quarter. Thanks, Sofie.

在會計方面，我認為投資者關係部將為您提供更多相關細節。說得相當詳細。但上半年，淨利息收入、法定利息收入和基礎利息收入之間沒有影響，也沒有調整。零。第一季度發生的情況是，我們進行了 2.11 億歐元的正向調整，而我們在第二季度則扭轉了完全相同的金額，順便說一句，就 200 億歐元而言，這是一個非常小的金額。所以上半年NII沒有調整。我們在第一季度添加的標的資產在第二季度發生了逆轉。損益表還有其他調整，但在大多數情況下，第二季度基本上抵消了第一季度發生的情況。但投資者關係部將為您逐行提供第一季度和第二季度之間差異的所有詳細信息。謝謝，蘇菲。

Next question from Marta Sánchez Romero from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的瑪爾塔·桑切斯·羅梅羅。

My first question is on the digital bank. Could you please provide an update on your strategy for gathering deposits here? You've raised roughly EUR 3.4 billion year-to-date. That seems to be below what you had planned a few months ago. Your loan-to-deposit ratio is running at 200%. So how much more deposits do you expect to get? And where do you feel like you need to put rate in order to be more successful in Northern Europe and Germany?

我的第一個問題是關於數字銀行的。您能否在此提供有關收集存款策略的最新信息？今年迄今為止，您已籌集了大約 34 億歐元。這似乎低於您幾個月前的計劃。您的貸存比率目前為 200%。那麼您預計還能獲得多少存款呢？您認為為了在北歐和德國取得更大成功，您需要將利率放在哪裡？

The second question is a follow-up on mortgages in the U.K. You are shrinking pretty fast, EUR 4 billion per quarter. When do you expect to stabilize that book?

第二個問題是英國抵押貸款的後續情況。英國的抵押貸款縮水速度非常快，每季度縮水 40 億歐元。你預計什麼時候能穩定那本書？

Thank you, Marta. Okay, on the strategy item, the Openbank is quite clear, okay? And we just don't have Openbank as the only vehicle to raise deposits. We have some other vehicles also. We have in some of the other different countries, okay? We believe that the strategy is right and the one that we manage at Openbank is going along our expectations, and we believe that we're going to continue to manage that accordingly, okay?

謝謝你，瑪爾塔。好的，在策略這一項上，Openbank 已經說得很清楚了，好嗎？我們只是沒有將 Openbank 作為籌集存款的唯一工具。我們還有一些其他車輛。我們在其他一些不同的國家也有，好嗎？我們相信這一戰略是正確的，我們在 Openbank 管理的戰略符合我們的預期，我們相信我們將繼續相應地進行管理，好嗎？

And in the some other different initiatives that we have, for example, in Germany and some other places, the strategy has been proving very successful. And we don't believe we need to basically continue raising rates depending on what the market reacts to it, okay? So we're going to be moving it according to the market.

在我們採取的其他一些不同舉措中，例如在德國和其他一些地方，該戰略已被證明非常成功。我們認為我們基本上不需要根據市場的反應繼續加息，好嗎？所以我們將根據市場情況來調整它。

In terms of mortgages in the U.K., I was very specific about what we're thinking in terms of profitability, okay, and the way we're managing the portfolio. First of all, we've been very cautious in the way we manage and our risk appetite is being very prudent in the way we're managing the U.K., okay? If we see that there is a change of how we see the market, then we'll adjust at the point. But right now, we're concentrated in the 2 things I told you, first of all, profitability and being cautious on the risk appetite there. If we see any of these changes, then we'll adjust in any way.

就英國的抵押貸款而言，我非常具體地說明了我們在盈利能力方面的想法，以及我們管理投資組合的方式。首先，我們在管理方式上一直非常謹慎，我們的風險偏好在管理英國的方式上也非常謹慎，好嗎？如果我們發現我們對市場的看法發生了變化，那麼我們就會在此時進行調整。但現在，我們專注於我告訴你的兩件事，首先是盈利能力和對風險偏好持謹慎態度。如果我們看到任何這些變化，那麼我們會以任何方式進行調整。

I don't know, José, if you'd like to comment a little bit more?

我不知道，José，您是否願意發表更多評論？

In the digital consumer bank, that now includes Openbank, we have EUR 60 billion in deposits, like you said. And I think we obviously manage that to maximize profitability. So not only a question of the amount of deposits, but the question is managing the margins in a business that has negative sensitivity to rates. And I think we've been very successful. If you compare this figure to what it was a couple of years ago and you look at margins and interest rate sensitivity management, I think you have to look at the whole picture.

正如您所說，在數字消費銀行（現在包括 Openbank）中，我們擁有 600 億歐元的存款。我認為我們顯然可以做到這一點以最大化盈利能力。因此，這不僅是存款金額的問題，而且是管理對利率負敏感性的企業的利潤率的問題。我認為我們非常成功。如果你將這個數字與幾年前的情況進行比較，並考慮利潤率和利率敏感性管理，我認為你必須縱觀全局。

And I think we've been very successful in managing interest rate sensitivity in the business that is naturally -- has naturally negative sensitivity to rising rates. Thanks, Marta.

我認為我們在管理業務的利率敏感性方面非常成功，該業務自然對利率上升具有負面敏感性。謝謝，瑪爾塔。

Next question from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Andrea Filtri。

I want it to get more basically on (inaudible) H1. And you go into the different geographies. And particularly, you have given a lot of detail on NII in a lot of countries. Can you do the same for Brazil, please?

我希望它能更基本地關注（聽不清）H1。然後你進入不同的地區。特別是，您提供了許多國家/地區 NII 的詳細信息。您能為巴西做同樣的事情嗎？

The second question is on Spain, if you could split the drivers of NII there between a bit of increase in interest rates of deposit beta and the ALCO portfolio contribution.

第二個問題是關於西班牙，您是否可以將那裡的 NII 驅動因素分為存款貝塔利率的一點增長和 ALCO 投資組合貢獻之間。

Okay. Thank you, Andrea. Let me explain a little bit the NII in Brazil, and then José will give you the details of the drivers of NII and the betas in Spain, okay, charging, yes, in Spain.

好的。謝謝你，安德里亞。讓我解釋一下巴西的 NII，然後 José 會給你 NII 驅動程序的詳細信息以及西班牙的測試版，好吧，充電，是的，在西班牙。

So to start, I mean, Brazil NII, okay, performance in recent quarters, as explained, first of all, on loans in 2021, I've been very specific on that. We have become very much conservative and we have changed the mix, okay? And we have grown volume selectively, okay, changing the low mix -- the low mix to lower risk. On deposits, okay, the fast increase in rates mean a rapid rise in the cost of deposits, okay? We expect NII in the second half of '23 to be higher than in the first half of the year, leading to a flat NII in the year with a substantial improvement in '24, okay?

首先，我的意思是，巴西 NII，好吧，最近幾個季度的表現，正如所解釋的，首先是 2021 年的貸款，我對此非常具體。我們變得非常保守，我們改變了組合，好嗎？我們有選擇地增加了銷量，好吧，改變低組合——低組合以降低風險。存款方面，好吧，利率快速上漲意味著存款成本快速上升，好嗎？我們預計23年下半年的NII會高於上半年，導致全年NII持平，24年會有大幅改善，好嗎？

If we see that the rates basically start to come down because it's very important to understand that Brazil has negative sensitivity to the rates, we should gain traction. And we maintain -- we're going to maintain a cautious stance, but we believe that we can go back to the market, okay? And we believe that the functional rates could fall in the second half, bringing the cost down in retail funding, okay?

如果我們看到利率基本上開始下降，因為了解巴西對利率的負面敏感性非常重要，那麼我們應該會受到關注。我們堅持——我們將保持謹慎的立場，但我們相信我們可以重返市場，好嗎？我們認為下半年功能利率可能會下降，從而降低零售融資成本，好嗎？

And then in the drivers of NII in Spain, and José will give you more details, Spain is one of the countries that has benefited most from the higher rates, okay? We continue to see strong growth in clients. Just in the first half of the year, we have 300,000 more active clients, okay? NII in Spain is up around 57% in the first half of the year and 60% just alone in the second quarter. It's mostly supported by repricing of the loan portfolio, the higher yields and remain contained on the cost of deposits.

然後，在西班牙 NII 的驅動因素中，José 將為您提供更多詳細信息，西班牙是從較高利率中受益最多的國家之一，好嗎？我們繼續看到客戶的強勁增長。就在上半年，我們的活躍客戶就多了30萬，好嗎？西班牙的 NII 今年上半年增長了約 57%，僅第二季度就增長了 60%。它主要受到貸款組合重新定價、更高的收益率以及存款成本的控制的支持。

So we have been managing very well in that sense. We expect double-digit growth for NII in 2023. And regarding the peak of NII in Spain, there are several things to consider that José already explained you. Assets will continue to reprice at least during the first half of '24, clients which we expect will continue to grow, and betas, which will be key, we're still seeing a rational competition with low betas for individuals in a system which remains highly liquid, okay? So as of today, we don't expect much higher remuneration on the foreseeable future.

所以從這個意義上來說，我們一直管理得很好。我們預計 2023 年 NII 會出現兩位數增長。關於西班牙 NII 的峰值，有幾件事需要考慮，José 已經向您解釋過。至少在 24 年上半年，資產將繼續重新定價，我們預計客戶將繼續增長，貝塔值將是關鍵，我們仍然看到系統中個人的低貝塔值的理性競爭仍然存在高流動性好嗎？因此，截至今天，我們預計在可預見的未來不會有更高的薪酬。

So Andrea, the ALCO. In Spain, we have EUR 27 billion, ALCO, EUR 21 billion is a structural long-term held to collect with an average maturity of -- duration of 7.7 years and a yield of 3.3%, 3.4%. And then we have EUR 6 billion, which is more associated with short-term liquidity management, average duration of 1.2 years and yields slightly below 3%.

安德里亞，ALCO。在西班牙，我們有270億歐元的ALCO，其中210億歐元是結構性長期持有的債券，平均期限為7.7年，收益率為3.3%、3.4%。然後我們有 60 億歐元，更多地與短期流動性管理相關，平均期限為 1.2 年，收益率略低於 3%。

We expect to continue increasing the amount of the ALCO portfolio in Spain to gradually reposition the balance sheet towards a lower positive sensitivity. Because as interest rates start reaching a peak, we don't want to run a balance sheet with such huge positive sensitivity to rates. So one way of doing that is not the only, we are also taking other measures, but 1 way is obviously increasing the ALCO portfolio.

我們預計將繼續增加西班牙 ALCO 投資組合的數量，以逐步重新調整資產負債表的積極敏感性。因為隨著利率開始達到峰值，我們不希望資產負債表對利率具有如此巨大的正敏感性。因此，這樣做的方法並不是唯一的，我們還在採取其他措施，但其中一種方法顯然是增加 ALCO 投資組合。

In terms of betas, the beta for deposits in Spain is 17.8%. If we exclude CIB -- by the way, this is 3 percentage points higher than in the first quarter. If we exclude CIB, the beta is 9.5%. The beta in CIB is around 60%. So I think I've given you all the numbers to figure out exactly how we see the betas and the NII going forward.

就貝塔係數而言，西班牙存款的貝塔係數為 17.8%。順便說一句，如果我們排除 CIB，這比第一季度高出 3 個百分點。如果我們排除 CIB，貝塔值為 9.5%。 CIB 的貝塔值約為 60%。因此，我想我已經向您提供了所有數據，以便您準確了解我們如何看待 Beta 版和 NII 的未來發展。

Next question from Britta Schmidt from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Britta Schmidt。

Could you give a bit more color on the NII increase, the absolute NII increase in Spain Q-on-Q? The customer spread was up less in the previous quarter, but NII was up a lot more.

您能否對 NII 的增長（即西班牙 Q-on-Q 的絕對 NII 增長）進行更多說明？上一季度客戶利差增幅較小，但 NII 增幅較大。

And then secondly, could you also update us on the net interest income sensitivity in Brazil over 1 year and 2 years? And lastly, on the EUR 500 million rate benefits that you see more so than previously, can you give us an idea as to where you see them? And how much of that has been recognized in the current run rate?

其次，您能否向我們介紹巴西一年和兩年淨利息收入敏感性的最新情況？最後，關於您比以前看到更多的 5 億歐元利率優惠，您能否告訴我們您在哪裡看到了這些福利？在當前的運行速度中，其中有多少得到了認可？

Okay. So let me go backwards here. Yes, in the first half, the sensitivity was more or less EUR 500 million higher than what we -- the guidance we gave at the Investor Day. We would expect more or less a similar amount in the second half in euros. So we -- relative to the figures we gave at Investor Day, the interest rate sensitivity in euros due to the fact that, obviously, rates are higher, and we are seeing better betas, remember that the betas we use to give that sensitivity at the Investor Day in euros were around 30%, we are below 20% right now and it's already half of the year. So we would expect another EUR 500 million more in the second half, over EUR 1 billion higher than what we mentioned at Investor Day.

好的。那麼讓我在這裡倒退一下。是的，上半年，敏感性比我們在投資者日給出的指導高出或多或少 5 億歐元。我們預計下半年歐元的金額或多或少會類似。因此，相對於我們在投資者日給出的數據，歐元的利率敏感度是由於利率顯然更高，而且我們看到更好的貝塔值，請記住，我們用來給出敏感度的貝塔值是投資者日歐元匯率約為 30%，現在低於 20%，而且已經過半了。因此，我們預計下半年將再增加 5 億歐元，比我們在投資者日提到的高出 10 億歐元以上。

NII sensitivity in Brazil, I'm going to give you the rest of the currencies as well. So if today, we had 100 basis points parallel shift upwards, we would make EUR 1.1 billion, EUR 1.2 billion more, 250 million more in the U.K., flat, slightly negative in the U.S. and EUR 100 million less in Brazil. I think, we gave you all the details to understand the NII sensitivity in Spain, but we can take it offline and if you want more detailed analysis, but I think we gave you all the details. I give you the composition of the balance sheet by repricing on the asset side. So I think that's sufficient, I think, but we will take it offline.

巴西的 NII 敏感性，我還將向您提供其餘貨幣。因此，如果今天我們平行上移 100 個基點，那麼我們將增加 11 億歐元，增加 12 億歐元，英國增加 2.5 億歐元，美國持平，略有負值，巴西減少 1 億歐元。我認為，我們為您提供了所有詳細信息，以了解西班牙的 NII 敏感性，但如果您想要更詳細的分析，我們可以將其離線，但我認為我們為您提供了所有詳細信息。我通過在資產方面重新定價來向您提供資產負債表的構成。所以我認為這已經足夠了，但我們會將其離線。

Next questions from Carlos Cobo Catena from Societe General.

接下來的問題來自法國興業銀行的 Carlos Cobo Catena。

Just a quick follow-up from me on capital. You mentioned the stock finance impact. Could you please quantify that in terms of stock and one single specific impact on risk-weighted assets, just to clear that out from other impacts?

我只是對資本進行快速跟進。您提到了股票財務影響。您能否根據庫存和對風險加權資產的一項具體影響來量化這一點，以便將其與其他影響區分開來？

Okay. So the stock finance is seasonal. It tends to go up in December, which is the peak in the year, then goes -- it goes down in March, goes up a little bit in June and then same in September to pick again in December. This year, the increase in June was higher than we expected. We are talking around EUR 6 billion in total risk-weighted assets from stock finance in the first half.

好的。所以股票金融是季節性的。它往往會在 12 月上升，這是一年中的峰值，然後下降——在 3 月下降，在 6 月略有上升，然後在 9 月同樣上升，在 12 月再次回升。今年6月份的增幅高於我們的預期。我們談論的是上半年來自股票融資的風險加權資產總額約為 60 億歐元。

(Operator Instructions) Next question from Fernando Gil de Santivañes from Bestinver.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Bestinver 的 Fernando Gil de Santivañes。

Two questions, please. One is on Poland. What do you expect in terms of mortgage provisions related to Swiss funds going forward. If you can comment on (inaudible)

請教兩個問題。其中之一是在波蘭。您對未來與瑞士基金相關的抵押貸款條款有何期望？如果您可以評論（聽不清）

And second one is on RWA growth. I'm looking at U.K. figures and Poland figures. I'm looking at loans, loan growth and FX impact, and it seems like RWAs are increasing faster than that. And if you can comment on what is happening there in those particular regions will happen up.

第二個是 RWA 增長。我正在查看英國的數據和波蘭的數據。我正在研究貸款、貸款增長和外匯影響，似乎 RWA 的增長速度比這更快。如果你能評論那些特定地區正在發生的事情就會發生。

Okay. Sorry, Fernando, what you said at the beginning was mortgage provisions in Poland? Yes? Okay. So Fernando, let me tell you exactly how we are in Poland, okay? Up to today, okay, and with the extra that we did, okay, we believe that is completely adequate, okay? We're talking about that in the blended provisions that we have. We are provisioned up to 58%, okay, of the outstanding that we have. Okay? And we believe that's enough to sustain exactly what needs to be done over there, given the dynamics that we have seen in the market. And if you basically changing to a lot is, when these mortgages started, they'd be about there, okay? So I believe that we're at the right point, and we believe the provisions at this level is completely adequate, okay?

好的。抱歉，費爾南多，你一開始說的是波蘭的抵押貸款規定？是的？好的。費爾南多，讓我確切地告訴你我們在波蘭的情況，好嗎？到今天為止，好吧，加上我們所做的額外工作，好吧，我們相信這已經完全足夠了，好嗎？我們正在我們現有的混合條款中討論這一點。我們的撥備金額高達我們所擁有的未償還餘額的 ​​58%。好的？考慮到我們在市場上看到的動態，我們相信這足以維持那裡需要做的事情。如果你基本上改變很多，當這些抵押貸款開始時，它們就會在那裡，好嗎？所以我相信我們處於正確的位置，我們相信這個級別的規定是完全足夠的，好嗎？

On the second, I will have José to give you the answer.

第二個問題，我會讓何塞給你答案。

As I explained, loan growth year-on-year was 0. Risk-weighted assets increased 2%, half of which is FX. And I can take you through the composition of risk-weighted assets by country, but half of the risk-weighted asset inflation has to do with FX. Of the other half, we had some positives and negatives. As I said, we have contraction in the U.K. We have contraction in terms of risk-weighted assets, ex stock finance in auto, a slight contraction in Europe. And then we had the stock finance expansion in Europe and also risk-weighted asset growth, both in ex FX in Mexico and in Brazil.

正如我所解釋的，貸款同比增長為 0。風險加權資產增長了 2%，其中一半是外匯。我可以帶您了解按國家/地區劃分的風險加權資產的構成，但一半的風險加權資產通脹與外匯有關。在另一半中，我們有一些積極的一面和消極的一面。正如我所說，英國出現收縮，風險加權資產、汽車股票融資等方面出現收縮，歐洲略有收縮。然後我們在歐洲實現了股票融資擴張，在墨西哥和巴西也實現了風險加權資產增長（以外匯計算）。

Thank you, Fernando. I'm unclear if there are any further questions?

謝謝你，費爾南多。不知道還有什麼問題嗎？

We have a question from the line of Ignacio Cerezo from UBS.

我們收到來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的伊格納西奧·塞雷佐 (​​Ignacio Cerezo) 的提問。

It's just a quick follow-up on Brazil. If you can give us a little bit more color or at least ballpark magnitude of the substantial growth of NII you're expecting in '24, the sensitivity to rates, José was mentioning, suggests probably around 1% for 100 basis points decline. So just trying to understand basically what kind of magnitude in terms of acceleration of NII you are expecting next year in Brazil?

這只是對巴西的快速跟進。如果你能給我們更多的信息，或者至少告訴我們你所期望的 24 年 NII 大幅增長的大概幅度，José 提到，對利率的敏感性表明，每下降 100 個基點，利率可能會下降 1% 左右。那麼，我們只是想了解一下，您預計明年巴西的 NII 加速會達到什麼樣的程度？

Okay. Thank you, Ignacio. I will answer the first part of your question, and then José will help me out with the rest, okay, with this sensitivity.

好的。謝謝你，伊格納西奧。我會回答你問題的第一部分，然後何塞會幫助我解決剩下的問題，好吧，帶著這種敏感性。

What I told you is that we believe that the worst is over in Brazil, okay, and we're starting to see a little bit more growth in the portfolio, okay? So we're changing that around. We're starting to basically go back to the open market, which, as you know, in '21, we decided basically to come out of it given what we saw in the core environment, okay? So at this point, we believe that Brazil is going to be able to turn around. And also we see that the rates are going to be helping us out because we believe that rate in August should start coming down. So in that sense, we don't know exactly how the trends are going to work, but we see that this is coming much better than we expect, okay? And we see that we're going to end up the year basically flattish to where we started, okay?

我告訴你的是，我們相信巴西最糟糕的時期已經過去了，我們開始看到投資組合有更多增長，好嗎？所以我們正在改變這一點。我們開始基本上回到公開市場，正如你所知，在 21 年，鑑於我們在核心環境中看到的情況，我們決定基本上退出公開市場，好嗎？因此，在這一點上，我們相信巴西將能夠扭轉局面。而且我們還看到利率將會幫助我們擺脫困境，因為我們相信八月份的利率應該開始下降。所以從這個意義上說，我們並不確切地知道趨勢將如何發揮作用，但我們看到這比我們預期的要好得多，好嗎？我們看到今年結束時基本上會與年初持平，好嗎？

So Ignacio, we believe interest rates in Brazil will start coming down in August. They are at 13.75%. Our central scenario is for rates to end the year at around 12%, 12.5%, and then probably below 10% by the end of next year. So NII, when you look at sequentially quarter-on-quarter, NII probably will be flattish in the third, but it should increase in the fourth and more so into next year. And the exact sensitivity, I mentioned the sensitivity to higher rates, but the sensitivity in Brazil to 100 basis points, but this is a parallel shift, parallel shift, which is not what will happen probably because we are -- what we will see is lower rates in the short end of the curve, but flattish in the long end of the curve. But through a parallel shift, a drop in 100 basis points will generate EUR 140 million higher revenue in Brazil. Thank you, Ignacio.

伊格納西奧，我們相信巴西的利率將在八月份開始下降。他們的比例為 13.75%。我們的中心設想是年底利率在 12%、12.5% 左右，然後到明年年底可能低於 10%。因此，當你按季度環比查看 NII 時，NII 在第三季度可能會持平，但在第四季度應該會增加，到明年會更是如此。確切的敏感性，我提到了對更高利率的敏感性，但巴西對 100 個基點的敏感性，但這是一個平行轉變，平行轉變，這可能不會發生，因為我們 - 我們將看到的是曲線短端的利率較低，但曲線長端的利率平坦。但通過平行轉移，下降 100 個基點將為巴西帶來 1.4 億歐元的收入增加。謝謝你，伊格納西奧。

Thank you, Ignacio. I believe there are no further questions. So thank you, everybody, for your attendance. And the Investor Relations team is at your disposal for any other questions that you may have. Thank you very much.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。我相信沒有其他問題了。謝謝大家的出席。投資者關係團隊將隨時為您解答任何其他問題。非常感謝。