Sonic Automotive Inc (SAH) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Sonic Automotive First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. This conference call is being recorded today, Wednesday, April 26, 2017. Presentation materials, which management will be reviewing on the conference call, can be accessed at the company's website at www.sonicautomotive.com by clicking on Our Company, then Investor Relations, then Webcasts and Presentations.

At this time, I would like to refer to the safe harbor statement under the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995. During this conference call, management may discuss financial projections, information or expectations about the company's products or market or otherwise make statements about the future. Such statements are forward looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

I would now like to introduce Mr. David Smith, Vice Chairman of Sonic Automotive. Mr. Smith, you may begin your conference, sir.

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Sonic Automotive's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. I'm David Smith, company's Vice Chairman. Joining me on the call today are Jeff Dyke, our Executive VP of Operations; Heath Byrd, our CFO; and C.G. Saffer, our Chief Accounting Officer.

I trust everyone has read the documents released this -- earlier this morning. I will provide some brief comments and then turn the call over for questions.

For the quarter, we generated $0.23 per share from continuing operations on an adjusted basis and $0.00 per share on a GAAP basis. Our GAAP results were depressed primarily due to 2 items: a $0.21 loss per share on the refinancing of our 7% notes during the quarter and a $0.02 loss per share related to storm damage costs in our group of stores in Texas.

As we discussed in a previous release during the quarter, our internal Q1 projections anticipated continuing operations results of between $0.22 and $0.26 per share. Our internal projections took into consideration the effects of opening new stores and open points in late Q4 of 2016 and Q1 of 2017 in addition to costs incurred related to additional openings and conversions of stores, which will be completed during the remainder of the first half of 2017.

We are very pleased with the refinancing of our 7% notes with a 6.125% 10-year issuance. This locks in a very favorable rate and improves our calendar of debt maturities.

The first quarter started off very slowly, but recovered somewhat in the month of March. In fact, we sold more new vehicles in the month of March than at -- than any other March month in the history of Sonic. As Jeff will most likely get into during the Q&A, the new vehicle business continues to be challenging due to the high level of competition for deals. We were pleased with our performance in used vehicles at both our franchise locations and at our EchoPark stores. Fixed operations also continued to grow, as did F&I.

We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders and again announced a dividend of $0.05 per share for the shareholders of record as of June 15, with the payment occurring on July 14. Our stock repurchases were modest during the quarter at a level of $4 million as we continued to remain opportunistic in our repurchase strategy. Our Board of Directors increased our outstanding share repurchase authorization by $100 million during the quarter that resulted in an authorization remaining of approximately $141 million at the end of the first quarter.

The rollout of our One Sonic -- One Experience technology continued in our Birmingham, Chattanooga and Los Angeles markets, and the rollout of our first BMW store in the first quarter has progressed as expected.

EchoPark results were in line with expectations, as EchoPark contributed a loss per share of $0.07 during the first quarter of 2017 compared to a loss of $0.05 per share in the first quarter of 2016. Year-over-year improvements in operations of our EchoPark Denver platform were offset by costs associated with the operation of our AutoMatch used dealer stores in Florida and the conversion of their stores to EchoPark locations.

At this point, we would like to open up the call to questions.

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from Rick Nelson with Stephens.

To follow up on the guidance, I think last quarter, you had talked about a $2 to $2.10 estimate for Sonic. Any updates on that?

Yes, Rick, this is Heath. We're maintaining that guidance of $2 to $2.10 for the full year.

Okay. And EchoPark, the projected loss of $0.23 to $0.27, unchanged as well?

Yes, sir. That's correct.

Got you. Sounds like hailstorms were pretty disruptive. And if you could discuss that and how that could potentially impact supply and 2Q results.

Jeff Dyke. You have a -- it's amazing. As a matter fact, we're getting ready to start an unprecedented push to put up hail nets across our hail-prone areas. We've just had enough of it. We've been getting killed every year. But our big Mercedes store in McKinney -- that's a new add point for us -- got just absolutely destroyed on a Sunday. Nobody was at the store, because we're closed there on Sunday. And every car that we had, including any customer cars that were outside, got just totally pounded. And then here a couple of weeks ago, that same store, after we fixed a bunch of the cars, got hit again. Luckily, we got about 60% of our inventory inside because we built a big inside showroom that we could push all the cars into. Our Birmingham stores in Alabama all got hit a few weeks later. And then also last week, Dallas got it. Just about every single store that we had, I think we had over 1,300 cars get hit with hail again there. So certainly, it's disruptive for those stores. And we're busily fixing the vehicles, having Hail, the Sale events and doing anything that we can to mitigate that. But we're -- like I said, we're going to have an unprecedented push to get hail nets up in the stores. That is going to create some CapEx spend that we just did not predict, but it's something that's necessary. And any EchoPark store that we build in Texas, we'll do the same. We'll add hail nets to that. So it's a few hundred thousand dollars of stores. It's not the end of the world, but it's still an expense that we had not anticipated in our models. And -- but long term, we think it'll save us a bunch of money as our risk team has evaluated this. It's just -- it's not worth dealing with it any longer. So we're going to do our best to get it taken care of now rather than later.

And just -- this is Heath. And just for clarity, the subsequent event of Alabama and the second Texas event were all second quarter events.

Okay. Also, I'd like to ask you about Texas and the Houston market in particular. Is there any signs of recovery occurring there?

Yes. So Rick, interestingly enough, if you looked at the fourth quarter last year, October and November were still very difficult in Texas. And December came along, and it was just record breaking. January and February were very difficult months there. And March was a pretty darn good month. We had a record-breaking March. It was a great month. But it's really kind of up and down there. It's certainly not as bad as it was a year ago early on into last year. There is leveling off. There's leveling off in margins. Our volumes are not bad. But you look at sort of our profit decline at the store level, about 50% to 60% of that came from the Houston market. So there's no question that it's still very competitive, and we've got big BMW stores there that are battling with a couple of the other bigger groups. So -- and as I listen to their calls, in their notes, they're saying the same thing. I mean, Houston's just -- while improving, it's not improving fast enough for my liking. But it's certainly not as bad as it was.

And Jeff, we saw stabilization in GPUs on the new car side. If you could speak to that and the inventory levels, where you're light and where you're heavy at this point.

I mean, obviously, we want more sport utility vehicles and trucks, and the manufacturers are busily retooling to make that happen. Days supply is in good shape. Coming out of March, I think we're at 73 days, something in that ballpark, 74 days. So I'm not dissatisfied there. I'm very satisfied that the margins are leveling out because, as you know, for a long time, we were on a big drop. And actually, our new car margin was up a little bit for the quarter, so on a year-over-year basis. And so it's certainly leveled out. I had a meeting with Toyota yesterday. I told them that our Toyota margins are not where we want to be; our Ford margins are not where we want them to be. But Honda and BMW and Mercedes, they're -- those margins are holding tight and doing better. So -- and that's the predominance of our overall mix. So that's making a difference for us. And then our F&I margins are vastly improved. JM&A became a new partner for us this year, and their training program and the support that we're getting from them is fantastic. And our F&I margins, we had at an all-time record month in March. We're pacing an all-time record month in April, so -- from a PR perspective. So I'm very pleased that margins have stabilized, and we'll see how the rest of the year goes. If you look at manufacturers' incentives, they're inching on past a 10% of the MSRP mark, and that's going to continue to grow, I think, in order for them to hang into that 17 million SAAR range for the rest of this year. So we'll see what happens in '18. I'm concerned that it's going to have to get more and more competitive from a manufacturer's incentive perspective to keep our margins sort of stabilized. I want the rest of the year to play out before I'll make any further comments on that.

And OSOE, it looks like you're rolling some of the technology into new markets. And the pricing tool, is that something that you're still developing? Or are you not likely to push forward with that part?

Well, yes, let's break it down into 2 categories. First is our used car pricing tool. And I could not be more pleased with where we are there. I think we've got the superior used car pricing tool in the industry today. Our EchoPark stores are all priced automatically. We have electronic hang tags on our cars, and our cars are being -- pricing is being adjusted by our algorithms on a daily basis. And so I couldn't be more pleased with where we are. We're still working on our new car pricing tool. It's a much more complicated venture than that. But under no circumstances are we backing off of that. If you're going to be one price or a non-negotiating environment, you've got to put yourself in a position where you can price cars and do that on a timely basis. So we are rolling out our technology. We've rolled that out into 14 stores. So we added a BMW store. Training started in the middle of January. We're having a -- sequentially, the store keeps getting better and better and better. And so I want to go through April, May, June, see how that store does before we start putting a full-court press on rolling more of the technology out. We're very pleased with our CRM tool, our desking tool. We've got an appraisal app that we'll introduce to the public here in the coming months where they can appraise their own vehicle. And by the time this year is over with, your -- our team is going to be able to provide online for our customers to do an entire transaction, from stem to stern. So they'll be able to buy a car online, and we'll deliver, white-glove the car, to their place of business, their home, wherever they would like. So that's something we've been working on for a long time. We talked about it last quarter. And by the end of this year, we should be able to deliver that opportunity for our customer base. And then I know it's not a large part of the customer base today, but we project that over time, that's going to grow, and that opportunity will be there for our consumers to use at their convenience.

The next question will come from Mike Montani with Evercore ISI.

I just wanted to ask, if I could, from a profitability standpoint and also from a used unit throughput standpoint, can you just give us some incremental updates on what you're seeing out of the Denver market in particular, and just how to think about profitability moving forward as those stores mature?

Yes. I mean, look, if you look, our stores on a same-store basis year-over-year, cash flow was just about breakeven for the quarter. Our original stores are making money. So that's why we're pushing forward so hard with EchoPark. Very, very excited about that. Our throughput is great. Our volume growth is excellent. So if you sort of separate out the AutoMatch stores, and we tried to do that for you on the slide, you can sort of see where EchoPark is and what our growth is. But we could not be more excited about EchoPark and the opportunity that we have there. It is just going gangbusters in Denver. And we've already broken ground in San Antonio, Dallas, and the Carolinas will be just behind that. We'll probably get the AutoMatch stores all converted this year and 3 or 4 stores opened by the end of the fourth quarter. And then we could have the opportunity to open 15 to 20 stores next year. So we had really made a lot of progress with real estate, a lot of progress with the facility and how quickly we can open them. Our technology is -- like I said earlier, it's just, I think, the best in the industry. If you ever visit the store, you'll see why. And so we could not be more excited about EchoPark and where we are in Denver, Colorado. It's just been a fantastic move for this company. And if you look at the first quarter and you look holistically, it's the first time in a quarter that Sonic Automotive sold more pre-owned cars than new cars, and we expect that to continue to grow. The more stores we open up, you're going to see our used car business continue to take a commanding lead in the overall volume and mix of this company. And long term, profitability-wise, it's going to take the lion's share of that, too. So we just couldn't be more excited about where we are with EchoPark.

Okay, great. And then can you talk a little bit about the service side? In particular, how are you seeing that mature in the EchoPark stores? And just as a separate but related note, one of your competitors has decided to private-label a majority of the parts that they're selling in the parts and service bays; obviously, non-warranty. I was just wondering if you guys could comment at all how you might think about that as a strategic option or maybe not.

Sure. Service at EchoPark, we're being very cautious about pressing hard there. I've got a certain number of man-hours or operational hours, if you will, and they're all dedicated to reconditioning cars. We're just keeping up with the throughput that we have. It's the most important thing for me right now. So driving customer pay, it's -- while important down the road, is not the most important thing for us right now. And then I know Mike Jackson and the team are out there working on their private label parts program. More power to them building their brand. I think that's the smart thing to do. That's exactly what we've been working on for years now, and we're going to sit back and watch how that works. There's sort of mixed beliefs there. But if the numbers that he's touting are accurate, then there'll certainly be an opportunity for both Sonic Automotive and EchoPark to play in that ballpark and others to expand our brand. And I think expanding the brand is the more important thing here. With what's going on, on the manufacturers' side, the amount of money that the manufacturers are wanting you to spend on facilities is getting to the ridiculous point. And I've spent a ton of time in this arena. And so at Sonic, we're going to do everything we can to support that but, at the same time, do the best to expand our brand. And EchoPark is our way of doing that and growing there. And if parts becomes a part of that picture down the road, great. We've got a lot of irons in the fire with One Sonic -- One Experience, a lot of irons in the fire with EchoPark and our technology and what we're doing. I feel like adding more projects to our team at this point is not an efficient, effective way to use our time. So we'll sit back and see how Mike and [the team] -- I'm sure they're going to be successful at it, and we'll let them blaze that trail and maybe learn from it. And if there's an opportunity down the road, then we'll certainly take a look at it.

Okay, great. And just the last one I had and I'll jump back here in the queue. But just on the fixed ops side, it looked like the gross profit comps 1.1%. Can you guys give a little bit incremental color there if you were to do customer pay versus warranty and recon? Kind of what's going on there? Because I had been looking for something maybe a little bit above that level.

Yes, we sure can. Last quarter, Heath, I believe he announced that we had an accounting change. We took some of the BMW and Toyota maintenance items and put them into warranty where we think they belong. And we're splitting that out on our [RO's] and measuring customer pay differently. So when you break down the categories and look at the detail, customer pay revenue, because of the year-over-year comparison, looks out of whack. But if you normalize it and standardize it on a year-over-year basis, our customer pay gross was down about 1.5% year-over-year while warranty was up 6.6% -- and that was driven by an [RO] volume and customer pay up about 5% and warranty up about 14.7%. Our internal revenue and our internal gross is growing at a higher level because of our used car business. Our used car business was just so outstanding. March was an all-time volume record for us, and our used car volume just continues to grow. We've had a record used car volume, I think, every year since maybe '08 or '09 or '10, and '17 won't be any different. So it's going to drive that internal gross volume, which is certainly helping bolster our fixed operations line. I think we have some opportunities in customer pay this year to do a better job there, and we have some opportunities in body shop. And so those are 2 major focus areas for us between now and the remainder of the year. So hopefully, that answers your question.

The next question will come from John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Just a first question on sort of -- on the pricing environment. And we just got off the Fiat-Chrysler call, and they were talking about how they felt the incentive environment was actually getting less competitive or better in April. I'm just curious what you guys are seeing in general as far as incentives and pricing. And any action you're seeing from the automakers? And also, if we think about it beyond just sort of the standard incentives and think about residual support on leasing, if you can kind of include that in your comments or how you're seeing that shape up out there.

Yes. So here's what's happening. In January and February, incentives were kind of lighter; and then March, it went berserk. And so there's this trend that's building. You're going to see a little bit of a lighter month in April and May. But in June, it'll go berserk again as the manufacturers try to hold on to that 17 million SAAR number. And so the incentives are all over the board, and it changes on the hour. I mean, it is just crazy what's going on, very difficult to manage. And I wouldn't be surprised if you heard that from everybody, at least from a public perspective. I mean, a lot -- people -- or the company doesn't have a lot of stores. So from a -- the manufacturers are going to do everything they can this year, I think, to hang into that 17 million SAAR range. And I expect this real topsy-turvy incentive environment to continue into the foreseeable future. They've just got too much inventory. The day supply is up on their lots, and so that's going to be forced down onto us. They're going to have to keep incentives going to push those cars out. There are new launches coming from a -- several different brands. I mean, it's just -- it could be the perfect storm if it's not managed right.

Okay, that's incredibly helpful. And then if you think sort of to the back end just on residuals and what's going on with leasing, I mean, what do you see sort of now? Is there a lot of residual support? Then also, as we think about this big push into leasing and have this sort of tsunami of vehicles coming back off of lease over the next 3 years, what is the opportunity for you both in your core stores and in your EchoPark stores? And how do you divide that up?

Actually, we're seeing some of our manufacturers pull away from leasing and going the other way. I mean, BMW, for example, is pressing us to sell more cars and lease less cars, and -- although that's a very difficult thing to do in this environment. And I think it's because of all the cars that are coming off lease and the residuals that they're -- the residual values that they're seeing. So their finance companies are making the operating companies do things that maybe they don't want to do right now. But I -- if anything, I'm not seeing a huge push to lease. I'm seeing the opposite of that. And I enjoy the ability of sitting on a few dealer boards, and it's the talk -- it's -- a lot of the talk or the conversation that we're having is, how do you reduce the lease output, increase the traditional sale output and still maintain the levels of volume and margin and the competitiveness that you have to for any particular brand? And so I think it's a conundrum right now, and it's something that we're going to have to work on as we move forward this year.

Again, sorry, just to follow up on that. I mean, there seems to be like a 20%, 25% gap between the monthly payment on a lease and the monthly payment on a purchase, assuming like a 6 -- a 72-month loan term. Is that what you're seeing? And how do you convince the consumer? I mean, obviously, long term, things should equal out, and there are some puts and takes in all this stuff. But when the consumer looks at a monthly payment that's $400 versus -- on a lease versus a monthly payment that's $500-plus on a loan, I mean, how do you get -- I mean, aren't people biting on these leases in a huge way and that's part of the problem?

Yes, I'm going to bring you to my dealer board meetings with me. It's the same question I'm asking. And so yes, there's a huge gap. And you cannot -- you're not going to be competitive with vehicles that have $100, $150, $75 more monthly payment in a straight buy versus a lease. And so it's an issue and an issue that we're going to have to deal with. They're going to have meet more in the middle. The cost is going to have to come down, and the lease residual value is going to have to go up so that they aren't -- take it in the shorts at the end of the term. But that's -- something's going to have to change or we're going to sell a lot less cars.

And you'll sell a lot more used cars, though, probably on the back of...

Yes, we will. And we've been predicting that, John, for quite some time now.

Okay. And then -- okay. Then I guess my last question. I appreciate all the color. My last question is, as you think about the used car opportunity, you've kind of taken 2 paths right now because you made an acquisition of AutoMatch. So how do you decide on buy versus build when you're entering a market or looking at stores or an area? Because that was kind of a -- that's -- you just kind of exhibited a willingness to buy, not just build or -- greenfield stores.

Yes. Well, with those AutoMatch stores, Mark has made us a hell of a deal. I mean, we bought those stores very cheap, and so it was an opportunity for us to very quickly add 4 more locations to our EchoPark mix, and that'll be done here in the coming months. We're looking at -- not every Starbucks is the same, right? And so we're looking at greenfield; we're looking at stores that we can go in and buy and convert the facility to have our brand and look and feel to it. And it's just a financial decision. It's a math equation. That's it. We have certain rent streams that we want to pay. And we have to -- we're very focused on having about 400 cars and sellable inventory available for sale on each location. And so we have to meet those standards. And as we meet those standards, we can pop them out like popcorn. And it's great because our breakeven is at a level where we don't have to sell that many cars. And as we continue to grow the brand in these markets like we're doing in Denver, we start to see nice profitability out of the stores. And then the question is, just how fast can you grow them? We're 100% confident in our ability to make money out of them, a 100% confident in our ability to sell a lot of cars. The big trick is getting your footprint where you want it at the price that you want, and then getting it approved by the local governments, which aren't sometimes as keen as you might believe on having a used car facility opened up. But once we make our presentations, we're 100 for 100 -- 100% success rate. And so that's why next year, we could very easily open 15 to 20 stores because we've done a lot of homework and a lot of work getting prepared for that. And so the Dallas market, the Waco, Austin, the Carolinas, Florida, Georgia, they're all going to come alive next year.

The next question will come from Bill Armstrong with CL King & Associates.

Just a follow-up on that last discussion. On the AutoMatch conversions, can you sort of walk us through what needs to be done there? How are they different than the EchoPark stores? So what do you need to do? And what's the time line to getting them (inaudible)?

Yes, it's a brick and a gold bar. I mean, totally different. Their operations were totally different, so we're converting the culture now. The facilities -- we're actually going to do something really cool. We're going to wrap the facilities to make them look like EchoPark stores versus doing a bunch of expense in construction. We found a new way to do that, which will help us in the future if we find buildings that are already done, that we can convert. So we've already got gone through and done the hiring seminars. We've hired the people that we want. We've got them in place. And I would tell you, over the next 3 to 4 months, we'll have 3 of the 4 stores converted. And then the one store in Savannah, Georgia, which we're very excited about, it sits between an AutoNation Chrysler store and a CarMax store. It was kind of the jewel of their real estate. It'll be probably fourth quarter before we get that one opened. We're doing some conversion work on that store. So not a ton of expense to convert in comparison to other projects, but converting the culture -- the EchoPark culture is very, very different. Our associates go through 60 days of training before they're even allowed to talk to a customer. So we're going through that entire process right now, and we've got some people exiting, some people coming in. And we've got the infrastructure. We really don't have to add anything to that. It's just getting the stores converted, and that's going to take a few more months.

Okay, got it. And on SG&A, obviously somewhat elevated for the reasons that you've outlined with the new stores and the EchoPark. What sort of -- now is that going to ramp down at some point as these stores start moving past the construction or conversion stage and whether it's the franchise or the EchoParks, and then start actually doing business? So what should we look for as we move through the year in terms of SG&A, either dollars or ratios, however you might want to express it?

Yes, from an EchoPark perspective, as long as we're growing at the pace that we're growing at, SG&A is going to be a little higher simply because it takes us about a year to ramp up a store to where we want it to be from a breakeven perspective. And we'll probably make a mistake here or there in a location as we go out, so there are going to be those kind of hiccups. But in the end, I would expect as we need to cover our corporate overhead and to get the entire thing cash flow positive versus just the market cash flow positive, my guess is about 25, 26, 27 stores open and operating. So we're hustling towards that environment. But there are SG&A opportunities on the Sonic side that we're taking just because of the environment that we're in, and we're aggressively taking -- making those moves now. And so hopefully, over the next 3 to 4 months, some of those SG&A percentages will begin to drop off as we make some significant adjustments in our expense model for Sonic.

Okay. And Bill, just so you know, we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 new stores in Q1 when you include the EchoPark and AutoMatch that were not included in Q1 of 2016. So obviously, that had an impact on year-over-year SG&A. And those were ramping up. Those are new stores. But we modeled for the year -- total year to be about like 78.8% -- 78.5% to 78.8% SG&A as a percent of gross.

And Bill, that's why when we say our internal forecasts for the first quarter were in range with where we were, we took those stores into mind as they're going through their ramp-up. And obviously, if you guys just look at our history, when you get towards the end of year, that fourth quarter for us played like a huge role in our profitability. So you guys need to take that in mind as you're forecasting out your year and building your plan based on what -- the information that we're giving you today.

The next question will come from Bret Jordan with Jefferies.

One quick follow-up on that -- the comment you just made. You're looking at a full year 78%, 78.5% SG&A-to-gross. And so, including the first quarter, it's just average? Or that's the run rate you expect to be at, at the end of the year?

That'll be the annual rate. Now we're still at, I think, 80%-plus for this first quarter.

Okay, great. Okay, great. And then I guess following up on one of the comments yesterday, obviously you don't have as much Southeastern or Florida market share. But are you seeing any regional differences? Other than Texas getting somewhat better off a low base, did you see any softness in the Southeast as AutoNation mentioned?

Yes, I read that. A little bit. We've got very similar footprints, so a little bit. And we total -- wholeheartedly agree on Texas, in particular Houston, and California. I think Bill Berman said that their California business is robust. So is ours. So it's -- the Southeast is nowhere near. And we've got a very good footprint in the Southeast. It's nowhere near what Houston is. That Houston market, like I said earlier, represented about 50% to 60% of our store-level P&L miss and -- on a year-over-year basis. And so that's -- we've got a great team there, fantastic leadership, great assets, and they're fighting the good fight every day. And hopefully, as oil prices -- because that's what this is all about -- as oil prices, well, bounce back, the market will and we'll be able to have that robust market back up through our P&L again.

Okay. And then just sort of the granular or the details on the EchoPark. You were talking about 400 cars in inventory. Then you mentioned the relatively low break-even unit number. Well, what would be the sort of a ballpark for units to break even on the used-only lots?

For a neighborhood store, somewhere in the 125-car range, something like that, 115 cars, somewhere in that ballpark.

Okay. And then one last question, it's kind of fuzzy. But obviously, we're talking a lot about the OEs pushing incentives to keep 17 million SAAR. What do you think SAAR rate would be if you pulled off the incentives and just sort of a natural state? If we ran an average over the last 10 years of incentives as opposed to heightened incentives, what do you think the natural retail demand for units are?

(expletive), Bret, that's a hell of a question. I mean, it's going to be a hell of a lot lower than it is today. I mean, there's no question that incentives are -- we'll get a lot of pull-ahead coming. So in its natural state, it's probably a $15 million SAAR, a $14 million SAAR. Who knows? And it's the same way. If you sat down and you listened to what all the manufacturers put together and you add all those numbers together, we'd be selling 22 million cars or 23 million cars. So all of their forecasts are all baloney. At the end of the day, we're bolstering up that -- the incentives in order to get us to that 17 million SAAR. Certainly, a lesser number. My guess would be in the $15 million range.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to David Smith for any closing remarks.

Thank you all. Have a great week.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect.