Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, Nadia. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the H1 results conference call. I'm joined by the entire team here in London and on other phone lines. We published the results this morning, Neil and myself have done a 30-minute Q&A on the website.

謝謝你，娜迪亞。女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加上半年業績電話會議。我與倫敦這邊以及其他線路上的整個團隊一起連線。我們今天早上公佈了結果，我和尼爾在網站上進行了 30 分鐘的問答環節。

So I would direct you to the ryanair.com website for that while you're there, book a low-fare flight. Quick couple of comments. One, as you see, I'd prefer to deal with Q2 because the H1 was distorted by the very ridiculously strong Q1 and the weak prior year comp. But if you look at Q2, so traffic is up 2% because of the Boeing delivery delays. They have improved in the last couple of months.

所以我建議您去瑞安航空的網站ryanair.com上預訂一張低價機票。簡單說幾點。如你所見，我更傾向於處理第二季的數據，因為上半年的數據受到了第一季異常強勁以及去年同期數據疲軟的影響。但如果你看一下第二季度，由於波音公司交貨延遲，流量增加了 2%。近幾個月來，他們的情況有所改善。

We've now taken 23 of the 29 aircraft that they should have delivered to us at the start of the summer. That gives a little bit of headroom to increase traffic growth this year from 206 million to 207 million. So we should get growth of about 3.5% this year.

我們已經接收了他們本應在夏季開始時交付給我們的 29 架飛機中的 23 架。這樣就留出了一些空間，可以將今年的交通流量成長從 2.06 億增加到 2.07 億。因此，我們今年的成長率應該在3.5%左右。

Fares in Q2 were up 7%, very strong recovery. That is the recovery of last year's 7% fare decline, and we think we will continue that through the remainder of the year. I caution, we do have slightly stronger prior year or tougher prior year comps in the second half when we began to repair the OTA boycott or the impact of the OTA boycott was less significant. So the fare growth in the second half won't be as strong as it is in the first half. But overall, on the year, we're pretty confident now we get back all of last year's 7% fare decline, maybe a little bit above that, but it won't be much.

第二季票價上漲7%，復甦勢頭強勁。這是對去年7%票價下降的恢復，我們認為在今年剩餘時間裡，票價將繼續保持下降趨勢。需要提醒的是，下半年我們可能會面臨比去年同期略強或更嚴峻的比較，因為我們開始著手解決 OTA 抵制事件的影響，或者 OTA 抵制事件的影響較小。因此，下半年的票價成長不會像上半年那麼強勁。但總的來說，今年我們相當有信心能夠恢復去年7%的票價降幅，也許還會略微超過這個數字，但不會太多。

Much more important, as always, unit costs well under control, only up 1% in the second quarter despite significant cost inflation on air traffic control and a little bit on the engineering side. Clearly, the lower hedge cost this year playing a significant role in that. And as a result, Q2 profits are up 20% to EUR1.72 billion.

更重要的是，一如既往，單位成本得到了很好的控制，儘管空中交通管製成本大幅上漲，工程方面成本也有小幅上漲，但第二季單位成本僅上漲了 1%。顯然，今年較低的對沖成本在其中發揮了重要作用。因此，第二季獲利成長 20%，達到 17.2 億歐元。

Taking forward, in kind of themes I would give you that we want to cover in the call, Boeing are doing a much better job. I think they asked us to take those -- could we take the aircraft through August, September, October. We said didn't -- there were no use to us at that stage, but we would work with them. We would take those aircraft if they could deliver them.

接下來，就我想在電話會議中討論的主題而言，波音公司做得好得多。我想他們問我們能否在八月、九月、十月搭飛機。我們說不會——在那個階段他們對我們來說沒有任何用處，但我們會與他們合作。如果他們能交付，我們會接收那些飛機。

They've delivered 23 of the 29 aircraft in the last three months. We get two more in November, and then the final four will be delivered in January, February of next year. So we will have all 210 Gamechangers in the fleet by the end of March next year or in advance of summer '26, which puts us well on track, I think, for traffic growth to 215 million, 216 million passengers in FY27.

過去三個月，他們交付了 29 架飛機中的 23 架。11 月我們還會收到兩件，然後最後四件將在明年 1 月或 2 月交付。因此，到明年 3 月底或 2026 年夏季之前，我們將擁有全部 210 輛 Gamechanger 客車，我認為這將使我們預計在 2027 財年實現客運量增長至 2.15 億至 2.16 億人次的目標。

And that will be the first year since the MAX groundings that we're not dealing with Boeing delivery delays in the spring or disruptions to our summer schedule. So we think that will lead to strong traffic growth and hopefully maintaining pricing and profit recovery into summer '26.

這將是自 MAX 停飛以來，我們第一年春季不會面臨波音公司交付延誤，夏季計劃也不會受到影響。因此，我們認為這將帶來強勁的流量成長，並有望在 2026 年夏季保持價格和利潤的復甦。

The good news this morning is we've taken advantage of our recent fuel weakness. As you know, we were 85% hedged out to March 2026 or for this year at $76 a barrel, down from $84 a barrel last year. Today, we're able to announce that we're 80% hedged for FY27 at just under $67 a barrel. That will be a very significant 10% saving on our fuel bill, will save us about EUR600 million next year, which I think will enable us to incentivize and stimulate growth, but also fund what will be another painful increase in emissions ETS taxes and viral taxes in Europe, where Europe continues to damage its own competitiveness by taxing only intra-EU travel, whereas all the extra or the non-EU travel or people arriving to and from Europe are exempt from these egregious environmental taxes.

今天早上的好消息是，我們利用了近期燃油價格疲軟的局面。如您所知，我們已對沖了 85% 的油價至 2026 年 3 月，即今年的油價，價格為每桶 76 美元，低於去年的每桶 84 美元。今天，我們很高興地宣布，我們已對 2027 財年的原油期貨合約進行了 80% 的避險，價格略低於每桶 67 美元。這將使我們的燃料費用節省 10%，明年將節省約 6 億歐元，我認為這將使我們能夠激勵和刺激經濟成長，但同時也將為歐洲排放交易體系 (ETS) 稅和病毒稅的另一個痛苦增長提供資金。歐洲繼續損害自身的競爭力，只對歐盟內部旅行徵稅，而所有額外的非歐盟旅行或往返歐洲的人員都免繳這些高額的環境稅。

Balance sheet continues to strengthen. We paid back the EUR850 million bond in September. We have the final EUR1.2 billion bond we will pay in May, and then we will be entirely debt-free with a fleet of 640 aircraft. We have hedged, and I think the treasury team has done a wonderful job start this year, the dollar was about 1.08 to the euro. It weakened in recent months with some of the Trump spectaculars to 1.24. And we've now hedged the first 50 of our 150 firm MAX 10 aircraft orders at 1.24, which is about a 15% euro cost saving -- euro saving on CapEx on those first 50 aircraft, and we're looking for opportunities to extend those CapEx hedges.

資產負債表持續增強。我們在9月償還了8.5億歐元的債券。我們將在 5 月償還最後一筆 12 億歐元的債券，當時我們將完全擺脫債務，並擁有 640 架飛機的機隊。我們已經進行了對沖，我認為財政部團隊今年年初做得非常出色，當時美元兌歐元匯率約為 1.08。近幾個月來，受川普一些驚人言論的影響，其匯率走弱至 1.24。我們現在已經對 150 架確定的 MAX 10 飛機訂單中的前 50 架進行了對沖，匯率為 1.24，這大約節省了 15% 的歐元成本——即前 50 架飛機的資本支出節省，我們正在尋找機會來擴大這些資本支出對沖。

And you can only do that with the kind of strong balance sheet Ryanair have. The real underlying, I think, story, though, is here that Europe capacity continues to be constrained and will remain constrained out to 2030 because of manufacturer delivery delays, Airbus fleet still largely grounded repairing engines, a program that won't be completed until 2028 or 2029. And therefore, I think as we add capacity next year, there's a reasonable prospect that we would grow traffic, but we'll see modest fare increases coming through the system.

只有像瑞安航空這樣擁有強勁資產負債表的公司才能做到這一點。但我認為，真正的根本原因在於，由於製造商交付延遲，歐洲的產能持續受到限制，並且到 2030 年仍將受到限制；空中巴士機隊仍大部分停飛進行發動機維修，而這項維修計劃要到 2028 年或 2029 年才能完成。因此，我認為隨著明年運力的增加，客流量很有可能成長，但票價也會略有上漲。

The one negative in Europe is Europe is continuing to fail on competitiveness. We've had the Draghi report, now it's 14 months old. He pointed to a whole series of areas where Europe can and must be more competitive. von der Leyen has committed herself to delivering on that competitiveness agenda and then done absolutely nothing for the last 14 months.

歐洲唯一的缺點在於，歐洲在競爭力方面持續落後。我們已經收到德拉吉的報告，現在已經過去14個月了。他指出歐洲可以在許多領域提升競爭力，而且必須這樣做。馮德萊恩曾承諾要落實提升競爭力的計劃，但過去14個月卻毫無作為。

All of Europe's airlines are calling for two competitive initiatives. One moved the ETS environmental tax emissions trading system tax rates in line with CORSIA, which is what the non-European airlines are paying. It is indefensible that Europe is harming itself by having these excessive environmental taxes, move ETS in line with CORSIA, and it would result in dramatic improvements in competitiveness and also lower fares for consumers traveling on intra-EU air services.

歐洲所有航空公司都呼籲推出兩項競爭性措施。其中一項措施是將 ETS 環境稅排放交易體系的稅率調整為與 CORSIA 一致，即非歐洲航空公司正在繳納的稅率。歐洲徵收過高的環境稅是在損害自身利益，這是不可辯解的。應該讓歐盟排放交易體系與國際減排計畫（CORSIA）保持一致，這將顯著提高競爭力，並降低歐盟內部航空服務的票價。

And then second, reform Europe's broken ATC services. We need the protection of overflights during national ATC strikes. We cannot have a single market if it can be shut down every time some air traffic control union wants to go on strike. It isn't much of an ask. The legal mechanism already exists because in Spain, Italy and Greece, they already protect overflights during ATC strikes and they ground the domestic flights.

其次，改革歐洲破碎的空中交通管制服務。我們需要在國家空中交通管制罷工期間保護飛越區域。如果每次某個空中交通管制工會想要罷工，整個市場就可能關閉，那麼我們就無法擁有一個統一的市場。這要求並不過分。法律機制已經存在，因為在西班牙、義大利和希臘，他們已經在空中交通管制罷工期間保護飛越區域，並停飛國內航班。

But as we all know, in France, they protect a disproportionate amount of the domestic flights and cancel all the overflights. This is unsustainable and von der Leyen should take action. I think with what is a very impressive new Transport Commissioner, Tzitzikostas. He wants to reform, but everything ties in the dead hand of von der Leyen's office. So she should stop talking about reform and competitors and start delivering it, protect over flights and then fix staffing on the first wave of ATC staffing on the first wave of flights, which, again, Germany, France, and NATS in the UK are inexplicably short staffed. It's inexcusable. The airlines we roster standby pilots and standby cabin crew. ATC, they just allowed the system to fall over, and they cut capacity. It's not acceptable.

但我們都知道，在法國，他們會保護不成比例的國內航班，並取消所有飛越航班。這種情況不可持續，馮德萊恩應該採取行動。我認為新任交通專員齊齊科斯塔斯非常出色。他想進行改革，但一切都受制於馮德萊恩辦公室的僵化控制。所以她應該停止談論改革和競爭對手，開始落實改革，保護上空航班，然後解決第一批航班的空中交通管制人員配備問題，而德國、法國和英國的NATS卻莫名其妙地人手不足。這是不可原諒的。我們為航空公司配備了候補飛行員和候補乘務員。空中交通管制部門任由系統崩潰，也削減了運能。這是不可接受的。

Air traffic control fees have gone up 14% this year, and we're still getting a s***** third-rate, third-world service. And if von der Leyen can't deliver competitiveness, frankly, she should leave and be replaced by somebody competent who can deliver competitiveness in Europe.

今年空中交通管制費上漲了 14%，但我們得到的仍然是糟糕透頂的三流、第三世界級的服務。坦白說，如果馮德萊恩不能提升歐洲的競爭力，她就應該離開，由一位有能力提升歐洲競爭力的人來接替她。

Other than that, I think the good news is we're seeing a sea change in environmental taxation at national level. Governments in Sweden, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and regional Italy are all abolishing their environmental taxes. And we are switching an enormous amount of capacity away from high-tax economies like Germany, France, and the UK, where Rachel Reeves is increasing APD by another GBP2 in April.

除此之外，我認為好消息是，我們正在看到國家層級的環境稅收發生巨大變化。瑞典、匈牙利、義大利、斯洛伐克和義大利地方政府都在廢除環境稅。我們正在將大量產能從德國、法國和英國等高稅收經濟體轉移出去，而瑞秋·里夫斯 (Rachel Reeves) 將於 4 月在這些國家將 APD 再提高 2 英鎊。

And moving that capacity to Sweden, Hungary, Italy, et cetera, where governments are get it, they're abolishing the environmental taxes, and they're also incentivizing traffic growth. So we want to reward those countries that are incentivizing growth and penalize those countries like Germany, France, and the UK who are incentivizing tax increases and damaging growth. And that will continue.

並將這種能力轉移到瑞典、匈牙利、義大利等國，這些國家的政府已經意識到這一點，他們正在廢除環境稅，並且也鼓勵交通成長。所以我們希望獎勵那些鼓勵經濟成長的國家，懲罰像德國、法國和英國這樣鼓勵增稅、損害經濟成長的國家。這種情況還會繼續下去。

But I think the fact that countries like Sweden, the home of Greta Thunberg and flight shaming five years ago are now have worked out. They're abolishing the environmental taxes, gives us hope and I think some degree of optimism that the way forward is not penalizing Europeans. It is abolishing those taxes and allow airlines like Ryanair to invest heavily in new engine technology. Our new MAX 10s will carry 20% more passengers, but burn 20% less fuel per flight. So a 40% reduction in fuel and emissions on a per seat basis.

但我認為，像瑞典這樣的國家——五年前格蕾塔·通貝里和「飛行羞辱」運動的發源地——現在已經取得了成功。他們正在廢除環境稅，這給了我們希望，也讓我們在某種程度上感到樂觀，認為未來的道路不會懲罰歐洲人。它取消了這些稅收，並允許像瑞安航空這樣的航空公司對新的引擎技術進行大量投資。我們的新型 MAX 10 飛機每次飛行可多搭載 20% 的乘客，但燃油消耗量卻減少 20%。因此，每個座位可減少 40% 的燃油消耗和排放。

Other than that, there's also some other government and competencies, the Irish government, which was elected last year on a program to abolish the Dublin Airport cap 12 months later, nothing done. We have a do-nothing Prime Minister and a do-nothing Deputy Prime Minister, both of whom have been sitting on their arses for the last 12 months, talking about passing legislation despite the fact they have a 20-seat majority. They're now talking about legislation might be moved by the end of 2026. Ireland and growth cannot wait for these do-nothing politicians. They have a 20-seat majority, they should pass the legislation scrapping the cap at Dublin Airport before the end of 2025 and allow the airlines, Ryanair and the other airlines to get on with growing traffic at Dublin Airport, the way we're growing, and we're adding aircraft in Shannon and Cork.

除此之外，還有一些其他的政府和職能部門，例如愛爾蘭政府，該政府去年當選時承諾取消都柏林機場的旅客人數上限，但12個月過去了，什麼也沒做。我們有一位無所作為的首相和一位無所作為的副首相，他們兩人在過去 12 個月裡一直無所事事，儘管他們擁有 20 個席位的多數優勢，卻只會空談立法。他們現在正在討論，相關立法可能會在 2026 年底前獲得通過。愛爾蘭和經濟成長不能再等這些無所事事的政治人物了。他們擁有 20 個席位的多數優勢，應該在 2025 年底之前通過立法取消都柏林機場的航班上限，讓瑞安航空和其他航空公司能夠像我們現在這樣，在都柏林機場繼續發展客流量，並在香農和科克增加飛機。

So there's always some stupid government and some incompetent politician holding back the growth. But thankfully, there's better politicians in Sweden, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, all of whom are working closely with Ryanair to abolish taxes and allow us to grow strongly. I think we're looking forward particularly with the improvements Boeing have made in the deliveries, the quality of the deliveries.

所以總是會有一些愚蠢的政府和一些無能的政客阻礙經濟成長。但值得慶幸的是，瑞典、義大利、匈牙利、斯洛伐克等國的政治人物更加優秀，他們都在與瑞安航空密切合作，取消稅收，讓我們能夠強勁發展。我認為我們尤其期待波音公司在交付方面的進步，以及交付品質的提升。

Kelly Ortberg and Stephanie Pope are doing a terrific job. They have got -- they've gone up from rate 38 to rate 42 in October. We think the FAA will increase that to rate 46 in March, April next year. They are gradually catching up on the delivery delays. They are pretty confident that they'll certify the MAX 7 even with the current government shutdown in Q2 next year, the MAX 10 in Q3, which will be about six months in advance of our first 15 MAX 10 deliveries in the spring of 2027.

Kelly Ortberg 和 Stephanie Pope 做得非常出色。他們的利率已經從 10 月的 38 升至 42。我們認為美國聯邦航空管理局將在明年三月或四月將該等級提高到 46 級。他們正在逐步解決交付延誤的問題。他們相當有信心，即使政府目前處於停擺狀態，他們也能在明年第二季度完成 MAX 7 的認證，並在第三季度完成 MAX 10 的認證，這將比我們在 2027 年春季交付首批 15 輛 MAX 10 的時間提前大約六個月。

So we have the 29 aircraft delivered this winter that enables us to grow to 215 million passengers in FY27. The first 15 MAX 10s coming in the spring of '27 will enable us to grow to about 225 million passengers by FY28. And then we are off and running on what I believe will be an 8- to 10-year program to grow from 207 million passengers this year to over 30 million -- 300 million passengers by 2034.

因此，我們今年冬天將交付 29 架飛機，這將使我們能夠在 2027 財年實現 2.15 億名乘客的目標。2027 年春季交付的首批 15 架 MAX 10 飛機將使我們在 2028 財年實現約 2.25 億名乘客的客運量。然後，我們將啟動一項我認為為期 8 到 10 年的計劃，目標是將今年的 2.07 億乘客增加到 2034 年的 3000 萬至 3 億乘客。

Currently, we're making a profit of approximately EUR10 per passenger. I think it's reasonable to suppose that, that profit will rise from EUR10 towards EUR12 or EUR14 profit per passenger over the next 10 years. There will be one or two curveballs in the middle of that. We are a cyclical industry. We have a strong balance sheet. We will have zero debt in May of next year. And I think we are poised for very strong growth, particularly if the European economies continue to lag in growth, people will get more and more price sensitive and will switch to Ryanair from high fare competitors elsewhere.

目前，我們每位乘客大約能賺取 10 歐元利潤。我認為可以合理推測，在未來 10 年內，每位乘客的利潤將從 10 歐元增加到 12 歐元或 14 歐元。這段期間可能會出現一兩個意想不到的變數。我們身處一個週期性行業。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表。到明年五月，我們將實現零負債。我認為我們已做好強勁成長的準備，尤其是在歐洲經濟成長持續落後的情況下，人們對價格會越來越敏感，並會從其他高票價競爭對手那裡轉而選擇瑞安航空。

So I have never been more excited about, I think, the growth outlook for the next four or five years. I think we have a number of challenges in moving politicians to a competitiveness agenda. But within that, Ryanair is going to grow strongly and profitably, I think, for the next four years up to 2030.

因此，我認為，我對未來四、五年的成長前景從未像現在這樣感到興奮。我認為，要讓政治人物專注於競爭力問題，我們面臨許多挑戰。但我認為，在這樣的背景下，瑞安航空在未來四年（到 2030 年）將實現強勁且有利可圖的成長。

And with that, Neil, I want to hand over to you. Anything you want to highlight in the P&L or on the balance sheet?

那麼，尼爾，接下來就交給你了。您想在損益表或資產負債表中重點強調哪些內容？

Yeah. I'll maybe just focus again on a couple of things in the quarter and in the half. Firstly, as you already pointed out, costs put in an excellent performance, up just 1% on a per passenger basis. That was down to our strong fuel hedging, which very much helped offset double-digit increases in ATC and environmental costs. We're still guiding modest unit cost inflation for the full year. What's modest, it remains somewhere between 1% and 3% on a full-year basis, probably a little bit higher than the 1% that we had in the first half in the second half of the year.

是的。我可能在本季和上半年會再次專注於幾件事。首先，正如您已經指出的那樣，成本表現非常出色，以每位乘客計算僅上漲了 1%。這主要歸功於我們強大的燃料對沖策略，這極大地幫助抵消了空中交通管制和環境成本兩位數的成長。我們預計全年單位成本漲幅將保持溫和。雖然增幅不大，但全年增幅仍在 1% 到 3% 之間，可能比上半年的 1% 略高一些。

We have extended our hedges into FY27, as Michael said. We've also extended our OpEx hedging into next year at 1.15 compared to 1.11 on the euro-dollar. So we're locking in significant price savings next year, and that will go a long way to help offset a jump up in our environmental ETS next year somewhere from about EUR1.1 billion this year to somewhere between EUR1.4 billion and EUR1.5 billion next year. Balance sheet, rock solid, BBB+ rated, 610 unencumbered aircraft and in a very strong position now to be debt-free by May of next year, which I think is a great place to be.

正如麥可所說，我們將對沖期限延長至 2027 財年。我們也將營運支出避險期限延長至明年，歐元兌美元匯率為 1.15，而去年為 1.11。因此，我們明年將鎖定可觀的價格節省，這將大大有助於抵消明年環境排放交易體系（ETS）的大幅增長，預計從今年的約 11 億歐元增長到明年的 14 億至 15 億歐元之間。資產負債表穩健，信用評級為 BBB+，擁有 610 架無抵押飛機，目前處於非常有利的地位，預計在明年 5 月之前實現零負債，我認為這是一個非常好的局面。

Also, we're locking in euro savings on our MAX 10 CapEx moving forward with a 35% hedge in place where we've hedged 35% at a firm order, that's 150 aircraft at 1.24. Buyback, moving along at a nice pace. We're pleased with the pace that the brokers are moving at. They managed it well through indexation. So we're just over 35% of the way through that, and that will run out to the back end of 2026. And then finally, the last thing I'll point to business as usual, but we've announced an interim dividend this morning of EUR0.193, which similar to last year, will be paid at the end of February.

此外，我們正在鎖定MAX 10資本支出的歐元節省，目前已對35%的訂單進行了對沖，該訂單包含150架飛機，價格為1.24。回購計劃也在穩步推進。我們對經紀商目前的行動速度感到滿意。他們透過索引化很好地解決了這個問題。所以我們已經完成了超過 35% 的工作，這項工作將持續到 2026 年底。最後，我要指出的是，一切照常進行，我們今天早上宣布派發每股 0.193 歐元的臨時股息，與去年類似，將於 2 月底支付。

And that's all I wanted to touch on, Michael.

這就是我想談的全部內容，麥可。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. With that, Nadia, we'll open up to Q&A, please.

好的。謝謝你，尼爾。那麼，娜迪亞，接下來我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Harry Gowers, JPMorgan.

（操作說明）哈里·高爾斯，摩根大通。

First question just on the Q3 fares, maybe you could provide us with what you're currently tracking for the quarter and if you've seen any changes strengthening or weakening around that number in the last few months?

首先，我想問一下關於第三季票價的問題，您能否提供您目前追蹤的季度票價數據，以及在過去幾個月裡，您是否觀察到該數字有任何上升或下降的趨勢？

And then second question on the online travel agents, that clearly, the fare comparatives are normalizing into the Q3 versus last year. I was wondering if you think you're still getting like any actual realizable uplift or specific tailwind from those official partnerships? Or is this just like fully past us now and we're back to a more regular kind of pricing cycle, just fully dependent on supply/demand in any quarter? Thanks a lot.

第二個問題是關於線上旅行社的，很明顯，第三季的票價與去年同期相比正在趨於正常。我想知道你是否認為你仍然能從這些官方合作關係中獲得任何實際的、可實現的成長或具體的助力？或者說，這一切已經完全過去了，我們又回到了更規律的價格週期，完全取決於每季的供需關係？多謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Harry. I mean, I wouldn't want to split out where we think we are on Q3 fares because so much of it is dependent on the close-in bookings at Christmas, over the Christmas, and New Year period. But October is strong, up on last year. November is a little bit weaker, slightly down on last year's fares and Christmas at the moment is booking strong ahead of last year on fares.

是的。謝謝你，哈里。我的意思是，我不想把我們對第三季票價的看法搞得那麼複雜，因為這很大程度上取決於聖誕節前夕、聖誕節期間以及新年期間的預訂情況。但10月份表現強勁，較去年同期成長。11 月的票價略有下降，比去年同期略低；而聖誕節的票價目前預訂情況強勁，比去年同期有所上漲。

I think all I want to -- I wouldn't want to go any further than give you the kind of -- we have moved from being hopeful to being now confident that average fares will recover the full seven-year fare decline from last year in this year's numbers. We're up 13% average fares in the first half of the year. We have tougher prior year comps in the second half of the year. So you won't see, I think, 7% fare increases in Q3 or in Q4. But I think rounded out for the full year, we're pretty confident now we will be up -- average shares will be up 7%.

我想說的就是——我不想說得更詳細，只想告訴你們——我們已經從抱持希望轉變為現在充滿信心，相信今年的平均票價將完全恢復到去年七年來的票價下降水平。今年上半年平均票價上漲了13%。下半年我們將面臨更嚴峻的去年同期業績比較挑戰。所以我認為，第三季或第四季不會出現 7% 的票價上漲。但我認為，如果全年都保持上漲勢頭，我們現在相當有信心——平均股價將上漲 7%。

Maybe we might get to 8% if we have a strong Christmas. But again, we need to see how those close-in figures book. And I think that is what leads us with a reasonable degree of confidence to see a strong profit recovery this year, but we can't put a number on it yet because it's so heavily driven by Christmas and the New Year holiday bookings. The new aircraft from Boeing will gives us the capacity to add a few extras there over that Christmas-New Year period. That's why we've been able to bring the traffic up from 206 million to 207 million this morning.

如果聖誕節銷售強勁，或許我們能達到 8%。但是，我們還需要看看接近收盤時的資料如何。我認為正是這一點讓我們有相當大的信心看到今年的利潤強勁復甦，但我們現在還無法給出具體數字，因為這很大程度上取決於聖誕節和新年假期的預訂量。波音公司的新型飛機將使我們能夠在聖誕節和新年期間增加一些額外的航班。這就是為什麼我們今天早上能夠將流量從 2.06 億提升到 2.07 億的原因。

On the OTAs, the big impact on us on the OTA boycott last year was through the first half of the year when you lost the people who I kind of complacently thought would be price sensitive. Therefore, they'll book the holidays directly with us. They didn't. A lot of them moved to the tour operators last year to the Jet 2s and the easyJet holidays. They've come back to us in the first half of this year. You see that reflected.

對於線上旅行社 (OTA) 而言，去年 OTA 抵制活動對我們造成的最大影響是上半年，因為我們失去了那些我曾想當然地認為會對價格敏感的用戶。因此，他們會直接向我們預訂假期。他們沒有。去年，他們中的許多人轉投了旅行社，加入了 Jet 2 和 easyJet 的假期計劃。今年上半年，他們又回來了。你可以看到這一點。

We have weak prior year comps and a strong H1. We see some of those kind of tour operators, easyJet, Holidays Jet 2 talking about a bit more price sensitivity in their bookings through the first half of the year. And it's because that traffic -- the OTAs have moved that traffic back to us. They need our low fare access. And so -- but that's not a key feature into the second half of the year. The OTAs are a lot less impactful in Q3 and 4.

我們去年同期業績較差，但上半年業績強勁。我們看到一些旅行社，如易捷航空、假日航空和捷特二航空，在今年上半年的預訂中對價格更加敏感。這是因為線上旅行社（OTA）已經把這些流量轉移回我們這裡了。他們需要我們提供的低價交通服務。所以——但這並不是下半年的關鍵特徵。在第三和第四季度，OTA 的影響要小得多。

And therefore, we didn't have the same decline in airfares in Q3 and 4 last year. We've got much -- we have a tougher prior year comp, which is why we think, again, the second half of the year, you won't see 7% fare increases. It will be a little bit less than that. But overall, in the round, we'll come out at fares up about 7% on the full year.

因此，去年第三季和第四季機票價格並沒有同樣的下降趨勢。我們有很多因素——我們面臨更嚴峻的上一年比較情勢，所以我們認為，今年下半年，票價不會上漲 7%。實際金額會比那略少。但總的來說，全年票價將上漲約 7%。

ddie, do you want to add anything to that on Q1, Q2, or OTAs?

ddie，還有什麼想補充的嗎？關於第一季、第二季或OTA（線上交易）？

No, I mean, like what we've said, there sort of covers it off about what has happened, like slightly less in terms of fares in November, but Christmas, we're happy with how it's booking. So nothing really to add there at all. And I think we are through that sort of tail end of the OTAs, and I don't think there's going to be any further uplift. I just think it's, as you say, much tougher for our competitors out there on the prior year comparable.

不，我的意思是，就像我們之前說的，這大致涵蓋了已經發生的事情，例如 11 月份的票價略有下降，但聖誕節的預訂情況我們很滿意。所以這方面其實沒什麼要補充的。我認為我們已經度過了OTA的尾聲，我不認為還會有任何進一步的提振。正如你所說，我認為對於我們的競爭對手來說，與去年同期相比，情況要艱難得多。

James Hollins, Exane BNP Paribas.

詹姆斯‧霍林斯 (James Hollins)，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

I'll start one for Neil, actually. Just on the ex-fuel unit cost performance was only up 2%. I think noticeable was the EUR30 million Q2 decline year-on-year in marketing, distribution and other. I'm assuming that's all lower distribution costs -- sorry, lower disruption costs. Or am I missing something else within that particular line?

我其實會為尼爾建造一個。單就不含燃料的單位成本而言，性能僅提高了 2%。我認為值得注意的是，第二季行銷、分銷和其他方面的支出較去年同期下降了 3,000 萬歐元。我猜想這都是因為分銷成本降低——抱歉，是中斷成本降低。或者我是否遺漏了該行中的其他資訊？

And secondly, Michael, clearly, using this platform as ever to get your point across on EU, progress on overflights, et cetera. Maybe just give us an update on what this new transport minister might be able to achieve? And secondly, whether there's any update on the sort of comedy baggage regulation they're looking at? Thanks.

其次，邁克爾，顯然你一如既往地利用這個平台來表達你對歐盟、飛越進展等方面的觀點。或許可以跟我們介紹一下這位新任交通部長可能會取得哪些成就？其次，他們正在研究的喜劇類作品的相關規定有沒有什麼最新進展？謝謝。

Okay, Neil. You okay if (inaudible) Tracey come in after?

好的，尼爾。如果（聽不清楚）翠西之後進來，你沒意見吧？

Yeah, sure. On the marketing line, I think you're particularly referring to some of that's down to lower EU261, lots of disruptions, but keeping them below the three hours. Equally, we've got up to 60 million people a week coming through on social, which is keeping our marketing costs way down. A little -- some of it's a bit of timing. We will do a bit more marketing over the Christmas period. And then offsetting that somewhat would be higher input costs for the onboard spend, which is going particularly well from an ancillary perspective.

當然可以。在行銷方面，我認為你特別指的是部分原因是歐盟261號條例的修訂，雖然有很多中斷，但都控制在了三個小時以內。同樣，我們每週在社群媒體上的訪問量高達 6000 萬，這大大降低了我們的行銷成本。有一點——一部分原因是時機。聖誕節期間我們會加大一些市場推廣力道。然後，船上消費的投入成本會略微抵銷一部分影響，從輔助服務的角度來看，這方面進展得特別順利。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. And on its commissioner Tzitzikostas, who's the Transport Commissioner, has had a really impressive start. One of the most notable things is they finally moved on the infringement proceedings against Spain over the crazy Spanish bag fines that were levied only on the low-fares airlines in Spain, but not on the high-fare airlines. It's clearly illegal.

好的。謝謝你，尼爾。交通專員齊齊科斯塔斯 (Tzitzikostas) 的上任開局非常出色。其中最值得注意的是，他們終於對西班牙提起侵權訴訟，因為西班牙對廉價航空公司徵收了荒謬的行李罰款，而對高價航空公司卻沒有徵收。這顯然是違法的。

It's in breach of EU Regulation 1008/2008, which guarantees the airlines' freedom to set prices free from government interference or regulation. He does want to reform ATC. But like I think a lot of commissioners, he's frustrated. They're all expressed frustration at how little comes back out of von der Leyen's office. There is a real dead hand of Germany incompetence at the top of the European Commission and either she should deliver reform and deliver reform and competitiveness or go, preferably be replaced with someone who can actually do something.

這違反了歐盟第 1008/2008 號條例，該條例保障航空公司在不受政府乾預或監管的情況下自由定價。他確實想改革空中交通管制系統。但我覺得很多委員都跟他一樣感到沮喪。他們都對馮德萊恩辦公室回饋的訊息太少表示不滿。歐盟委員會高層存在著德國式的無能，要嘛她應該進行改革，提高競爭力，要嘛就下台，最好是由一個真正能做事的人來取代她。

I would like to say we should get an Irish politician there given it was Peter Sunderland, who originally deregulated air travel. But given the lack of action from the Irish politicians on the Dublin Airport [mad], Dublin Airport cap, I wouldn't be recommending any of our Irish politicians either.

我想說，我們應該請一位愛爾蘭政治家去那裡，因為最初解除航空旅行管制的是彼得桑德蘭。但鑑於愛爾蘭政客在都柏林機場問題上缺乏行動（真是瘋了），我也不會推薦任何愛爾蘭政客。

At the EU Parliament, as is it won't -- we elect a bunch of clowns, and we should be not surprised in a circus that they come out with crazy ideas. One of which is now that everybody should have the right to bring two free bags onboard an aircraft. We have politely pointed out that there isn't room on board the aircraft for two free bags for 189 passengers. That does seem to be a detail that they've missed.

歐盟議會不會這麼做——我們選了一群小丑，就像馬戲團裡的演員一樣，他們提出一些瘋狂的想法，我們不應該感到驚訝。其中一項規定是，現在每個人都應該有權攜帶兩件免費行李登機。我們已禮貌地指出，飛機上沒有空間容納 189 名乘客攜帶兩件免費行李。這似乎是他們忽略的細節。

We've also pointed out that actual bag, one of the greatest things here that limiting people to bringing one free bag on board, and that was the wheeling judgment, the ECJ judgment in 2014, we do allow half the passengers who are priority boarding to bring a second carry -- free carry-on bag. That's about as much capacity as the aircraft has.

我們還指出，實際的行李，這裡最偉大的事情之一就是限制人們只能攜帶一件免費行李登機，這是 2014 年歐洲法院的判決，我們允許一半享有優先登機權的乘客攜帶第二件免費隨身行李。這架飛機的載客量差不多就這麼多了。

But what the European parliament now part of this is that the commission under Tzitzikostas is looking for a reform of EU261. There talk about bringing compensation up from three-hour delays to four-hour delays, which does make sense. The parliament then pushes back with some ridiculous suggestion like two, three bags on board. What that would do is they create huge queues at Europe's airports as everybody starts struggling with two bags through airport security. A bit like you have in American airports where you take forever to get through security because they're all bringing five and six bags attached to their persons through the airport. It would also mean inevitable flight delays because bags that don't fit in the aircraft would have to be taken away at the gate and put in the hold of the aircraft. You have more aircraft missing their slots and you would just gum up the whole system.

但歐洲議會現在參與其中的原因是，齊齊科斯塔斯領導的歐盟委員會正在尋求對歐盟261號條例進行改革。有人提議將延誤三小時的補償提高到延誤四小時，這確實有道理。議會隨後提出了一些荒謬的建議，例如飛機上只能帶兩三個行李。那樣做會導致歐洲機場出現巨大的排隊現象，因為每個人都要拖著兩個行李箱通過安檢。有點像美國機場的情況，因為每個人都帶著五、六個行李箱通過安檢，所以過安檢要花很長時間。這也意味著航班必然會延誤，因為不符合飛機尺寸要求的行李必須在登機口取走並放入飛機貨艙。這樣一來，會有更多飛機錯過預定時刻，只會讓整個系統癱瘓。

But of course, a bunch of lunatics elected to the European parliament wouldn't worry about the day-to-day details of how people move. They only work about three days a week anyway and wouldn't be all that sensitive at the best of times to efficiency. This is why in America innovates, China replicates, and Europe f****** regulates. And why Draghi has pointed 14 months ago, we need to get more efficient in Europe. And the best starting point would be stop issuing new bulls*** regulations invented by idiots in the European Parliament and start making Europe more efficient.

當然，一群當選歐洲議會議員的瘋子不會關心人們日常旅行的細節。他們本來每週只工作三天左右，即使在最好的情況下，對效率也不會太在意。這就是為什麼美國創新，中國模仿，歐洲卻整天搞監管。正如德拉吉14個月前所指出的那樣，我們需要在歐洲提高效率。最好的切入點就是停止頒布歐洲議會裡那些白痴發明的荒謬新規，開始提高歐洲的效率。

If you really want to deliver efficiency for consumers of air travel in Europe and competitiveness, abolish environmental taxes or at least bring them into line with CORSIA, and fix air traffic control. The European parliament will be much better off spending its time reforming air traffic control or protecting overflights in a single market than they would designing new and hopelessly impractical and unimplementable regulations, allowing passengers to bring two free bags on board an aircraft where there isn't room for the bags and they don't fit.

如果你真的想為歐洲航空旅行的消費者帶來效率和競爭力，那就廢除環境稅，或至少讓環境稅與 CORSIA 保持一致，並改善空中交通管制。歐洲議會與其花時間制定新的、毫無實際意義且無法實施的法規，允許乘客攜帶兩件免費行李登機，而飛機上既沒有空間放置這些行李，它們也放不下，不如把時間花在改革空中交通管製或保護單一市場內的飛越權上。

Jaime Rowbotham, Deutsche Bank.

Jaime Rowbotham，德意志銀行。

Two from me, both on growth. The first one on fares. Obviously, great to see you're making back what you lost from the OTA issues. But on an underlying basis, the pricing is broadly flat. And that's, I think, the scenario you're implicitly guiding to for this winter when the comps normalize.

我有兩個問題，都跟成長有關。第一條是關於票價的。顯然，很高興看到你正在彌補因OTA問題造成的損失。但從根本上看，價格整體保持平穩。我認為，你實際上是在暗示，當冬季比賽恢復正常時，情況就會是這樣。

So as we look ahead to next summer, you're growing in Poland, Italy, Ireland, you'll shrink in Spain, Germany, France. But overall, you'll grow seats at about 4%. It looks like the industry will do 3% to 4% again as well. That being the case, I was a bit surprised to hear you talking about modest fare increases coming through the system, especially as you hinted that Ryanair will likely be passing some of its fuel cost decline on to stimulate growth. So would it not pay for us to tread quite carefully when thinking about the direction of your pricing next summer?

展望明年夏天，波蘭、義大利、愛爾蘭的消費量將會成長，而西班牙、德國、法國的消費量將會下降。但總體而言，座位數將成長約 4%。看來該產業今年的成長率也將再次達到 3% 到 4%。既然如此，我聽到您談到票價將小幅上漲時感到有些驚訝，尤其是您暗示瑞安航空可能會將部分燃油成本下降帶來的收益轉嫁給乘客，以刺激增長。那麼，在考慮明年夏季的定價方向時，我們是否應該格外謹慎呢？

Second one, you've announced EUR25 million of annual investment today to accelerate cadet and first officer recruitment for the next three years. You've also talked previously about setting up one or two in-house engine maintenance shops. Is there any update on that project? Have you chosen the sites? And are there any other non-aircraft investments for growth that we should have on our radar? Thanks a lot.

第二，您今天宣布了未來三年每年投資 2500 萬歐元，以加快學員和副駕駛的招募。您之前也談到要設立一到兩家內部引擎維修車間。那個專案有任何最新進展嗎？你已經選好網站了嗎？除了航空領域之外，還有哪些增長性投資值得我們關注？多謝。

Thanks, Jaime. I'm going to ask Eddie to deal with the growth question. I might ask Tracey McCann to come in on -- Tracey will come in on the EUR25 million, on the first officer and on the engine shops update. Eddie, growth in 2026.

謝謝你，傑米。我會請艾迪來處理成長方面的問題。我可能會請 Tracey McCann 參與其中——Tracey 將參與 2500 萬歐元的撥款、副駕駛的任命以及發動機車間的更新。艾迪，2026 年的成長。

Yeah. I mean, if you look out into the summer of next year, I think, just close to 75% of our growth will be in Italy, Poland, Albania and UK. I mean, like we've -- if you look what's happened in Italy, we've opened 2 new -- we've got bases in Trapani. Tirana base will open. We've got additional aircraft, three additional aircraft going into Modlin, three additional aircraft going into Krakow.

是的。我的意思是，展望明年夏天，我認為我們近 75% 的成長將來自義大利、波蘭、阿爾巴尼亞和英國。我的意思是，就像我們一樣——如果你看看義大利發生了什麼，我們已經開設了 2 個新基地——我們在特拉帕尼有基地。地拉那基地即將開放。我們又增加了三架飛機，三架飛機將飛往莫德林，三架飛機將飛往克拉科夫。

And then you see as we begin to -- like it's not good to say that we're not growing in Spain. We're not growing in regional Spain. I mean, regional airports in Spain are underutilized by about 70%, but we continue to grow in Malaga and Alicante where we will have -- probably we'll have 20 aircraft in both of those bases next year, and that'll be pretty much maxed out on early morning slots. We continue to grow places like Madrid, so it is getting more patchy and Barcelona is full.

然後你會看到，當我們開始——比如說我們在西班牙沒有發展是不好的。我們在西班牙地區沒有發展壯大。我的意思是，西班牙的地區機場利用率不足約 70%，但我們在馬拉加和阿利坎特繼續發展，明年我們可能會在這兩個基地擁有 20 架飛機，而且清晨的航班時刻幾乎都會被佔用。馬德里等城市人口持續成長，導致人口分佈越來越不平衡，巴塞隆納已經人滿為患。

But yeah, the way this is playing out in terms of you look at our competitors and their sort of cost inflation, and that's going to drive fares up while the gap between us and our competitors widens on a unit cost basis, and that gives us the opportunity to take advantage of what we believe will be like fares at least rising to some extent, the bias is going to be towards that.

但是，就目前的情況來看，看看我們的競爭對手及其成本上漲，這將推高票價，同時我們與競爭對手在單位成本上的差距也會擴大，這給了我們機會，可以利用我們認為票價至少會在一定程度上上漲的趨勢，而這種趨勢將會傾向於票價上漲。

And we continue to grow, as I say, 75% of it across Italy, UK, Poland, and Albania and then a smattering of one aircraft increases across a wide range of bases where we're continuing to get low-cost deals. But like I could have allocated those 29 aircraft 3 times over based on the appetite that's out there for particularly the stability that Ryanair brings and the longevity into those markets.

正如我所說，我們的業務持續成長，其中 75% 的業務在義大利、英國、波蘭和阿爾巴尼亞，另外還有一些零星的飛機業務在各個基地有所增加，我們繼續在這些基地獲得低成本的交易。但是，根據市場對瑞安航空帶來的穩定性和長期發展前景的需求，我完全可以把這 29 架飛機分配 3 次。

And I would just add to that point. I mean, if you look at the non ex-fuel unit cost inflation in our competitors, whether it's easyJet, Wizz, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, they are really struggling to contain unit costs. And that, I think, puts pressure on the next year to get fares up to cover these unit costs. The legacy carriers are also facing a much bigger penalty in terms of the withdrawal of the free ETS allowances. It has a much bigger impact on Lufthansa, Air France, and IAG.

我還要補充一點。我的意思是，如果你看看我們競爭對手的非燃油單位成本通膨情況，無論是易捷航空、威茲航空、漢莎航空還是法航-荷航集團，他們都在努力控制單位成本。我認為，這會給來年帶來壓力，迫使票價上漲以彌補這些單位成本。傳統航空公司在取消免費排放交易體系配額方面也面臨更大的懲罰。它對漢莎航空、法國航空和國際航空集團的影響要大得多。

And I think the pressure on fares is going to be upwards for the next year or two. We have a much better unit cost discipline, and I think our fares will trend up behind them despite the fact that we've already banked up to EUR650 million in fuel cost savings next year.

我認為未來一兩年內，票價壓力將會持續上漲。我們的單位成本控制更加嚴格，我認為儘管我們明年已經節省了高達 6.5 億歐元的燃油成本，但我們的票價仍將隨之上漲。

Tracey, do you want to touch on the first officer recruitment issue and the progress on engine shops?

Tracey，你想談談副駕駛的招募問題以及機車維修車間的進展嗎？

Yeah. So attrition rates are probably at the lowest we've ever seen. So we probably slowed down our recruitment this year of cadets probably to about 500. We should be up at about 1,000. So given the long lead time for promotions to captain been about four to five years, we're commencing recruitment now for then peak years for the MAX 10 deliveries. So there'll be a carry cost of about EUR25 million per annum up to 2030.

是的。因此，人員流失率可能是我們所見過的最低水準。因此，我們今年的學員招募速度可能放緩至 500 人左右。我們應該已經達到1000左右了。鑑於晉升為隊長的提前期大約為四到五年，我們現在開始為 MAX 10 交付高峰期招募人員。因此，到 2030 年，每年將產生約 2,500 萬歐元的持有成本。

And shop progress?

店鋪進度如何？

So just on the engine shops, we're close to selecting our first MRO shop. We will open two. So that will allow us to do 200 engines in each shop. The selection period is ongoing. There's nothing in our CapEx for this year, but we will probably start paying something next year, but we're close to announcing something on that very shortly.

就引擎維修店而言，我們即將選定第一家 MRO 維修店。我們將開設兩家分店。這樣一來，我們每個車間就可以加工 200 台引擎。遴選期正在進行中。今年我們的資本支出計畫中沒有任何支出，但我們明年可能會開始支付一些費用，不過我們很快就會就此宣布一些消息。

We're in advanced discussions with GE and CFM on spares packages, and we would hope to have announcements of those, if not, before Christmas, maybe early in the new year.

我們正在與GE和CFM就備件包進行深入討論，我們希望能在聖誕節前，或者新年伊始就發布相關公告。

Jarrod Castle, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Jarrod Castle。

I was quite interested to hear you say that you think the profit per pax could go as high as EUR14 at least over the next few years. And you've given some commentary on pricing and costs. But just some color on what gives you that confidence, assuming we've got like a stable GDP environment. There's no downturn, I guess.

聽到您認為未來幾年每人利潤至少可以達到 14 歐元，我感到非常感興趣。您也對定價和成本發表了一些評論。但假設我們擁有穩定的GDP環境，那麼是什麼讓你充滿信心呢？我想，經濟沒有下滑。

And then you've obviously spoken about a number of countries, Germany, France, and I saw some comments on the UK. But it does look like you're still continuing to grow in the UK, which I think is about a fifth of your capacity. And if I'm not mistaken, you're going to grow in summer by the sounds of things. So why is it still attractive to you? And what are your thoughts on the upcoming budget on the '26? Thanks.

然後，您顯然談到了許多國家，例如德國、法國，我還看到了一些關於英國的評論。但看起來你們在英國的業務仍在持續成長，我認為這大約佔你們產能的五分之一。如果我沒猜錯的話，聽起來你夏天會長個子。那為什麼它仍然吸引著你呢？您對即將推出的2026年預算有什麼看法？謝謝。

Okay. I'll maybe ask Eddie do the second half of the question on UK growth this year. Remember, the APD increase, that doesn't come in until April of '26. So -- but it's coming.

好的。我或許會請艾迪來回答關於今年英國經濟成長問題的後半部。請記住，APD 的增加要到 2026 年 4 月才會生效。所以——但它終究會到來。

Just on profit per passenger. If you go back to the kind of the broad brushes or my favorite back of the envelope, the real driver, I think, of our industry in Europe for the next four or five years is capacity constraint. We've gone through 25, 30 years where there was new airlines being set up, low fares airlines, the legacies were setting up low fare subsidiaries, everybody had new aircraft deliveries. There is very little capacity growth across Europe this year, next year or for the next three or four years. Nobody has any significant aircraft orders with the possible exception of Ryanair.

單按每位乘客的利潤計算。如果用最概括的方式，或用我最喜歡的粗略估算，我認為未來四到五年內，歐洲工業的真正驅動力是產能限制。在過去的 25 到 30 年裡，我們見證了新航空公司的成立、低成本航空公司的湧現，傳統航空公司也紛紛成立低成本子公司，各家公司都接收了新飛機。今年、明年以及未來三、四年內，歐洲的產能成長都非常有限。除了瑞安航空之外，其他航空公司似乎都沒有大量飛機訂單。

Wizz had some orders and they've -- they're desperately trying to defer those orders now, which means their profits implode because all their profits come from (inaudible) or Ponzi like sale and leaseback profits being recognized in the P&L, but that's an aside. So I think the demand for air travel remains strong.

Wizz有一些訂單，他們現在正拼命地試圖推遲這些訂單，這意味著他們的利潤會暴跌，因為他們所有的利潤都來自（聽不清楚）或類似龐氏騙局的售後回租利潤，這些利潤被計入損益表，但這只是題外話。所以我認為航空旅行的需求依然強勁。

Yes, there are economic challenges in countries like Germany, France, and the UK, where the economies are not doing well, particularly in the UK post-Brexit. But people are not willing to forgo the travel. The kids, midterm -- we've just come through the midterm school break last week, very strong traffic flows, very strong bookings at high yields.

是的，德國、法國和英國等國家確實面臨經濟挑戰，這些國家的經濟發展狀況不佳，尤其是英國脫歐後的經濟狀況。但人們並不願意放棄旅行。孩子們，期中考——我們上週剛結束了期中假期，客流量非常強勁，預訂量非常大，收益率也很高。

Easter, summer holidays, Christmas, we're seeing strong demand for travel. I think, if anything, strong demand for travel with -- in Ryanair because we have such a pricing advantage over every other airline in Europe. Wherever we allocate the capacity, we are filling strongly. And I think that was reflected in this morning's bookings even into the remainder of October, November, December or November, December, where forward bookings are about almost 1% ahead of where they were this time last year. And we see that continuing.

復活節、暑假、聖誕節，我們看到旅遊需求強勁。我認為，如果有什麼變化的話，那就是人們對乘坐瑞安航空旅行的需求強勁，因為我們在歐洲擁有比其他所有航空公司都大的價格優勢。無論我們把產能分配到哪裡，都能充分利用。我認為這從今天早上的預訂情況中也可以看出來，甚至包括 10 月、11 月、12 月的剩餘時間，目前的預訂量比去年同期增長了近 1%。而且我們看到這種情況還在繼續。

So I was asked earlier this morning, one of the interviews, if we saved EUR650 million on fuel next year, will we pass that on in the form of lower fares? I think -- and my answer was, I think we can, but I don't expect to have to because I don't see -- if you look at the kind of cost inflation or ex fuel unit cost inflation in Wizz, easyJet, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, it's high single digit, low and mid-double digits in the case of Wizz. Those guys have no future unless they constrain capacity and get airfares up for the next year or two. And I think we will be the beneficiaries of that with a much more disciplined unit cost control.

今天早些時候，我在一次採訪中被問到，如果我們明年在燃油方面節省了 6.5 億歐元，我們會以降低票價的形式把這筆錢讓利給乘客嗎？我認為——我的回答是，我認為我們可以，但我預計不必這樣做，因為我看不到——如果你看看 Wizz、easyJet、漢莎航空、法航-荷航的成本通脹或不含燃油的單位成本通脹，Wizz 的通脹率是接近兩位數，低兩位數到中兩位數。除非他們限制運力並在未來一兩年內提高機票價格，否則這些人就沒有未來。我認為，透過更嚴格的單位成本控制，我們將從中受益。

And I keep go back to slide 4 in our presentation. If you look at the comparable unit cost advantage we have over every other airline in Europe, I think there's a reasonable prospect that we will see modest fare increases over the next two or three years plus or minus any unforeseen events, but modest fare increases, mid-single digits. And in Ryanair's case, most of that flowing through to the bottom line.

我總是忍不住翻回簡報的第4張投影片。如果看看我們相對於歐洲其他所有航空公司所擁有的單位成本優勢，我認為在未來兩三年內，票價可能會出現小幅上漲，當然，可能會有一些不可預見的事件發生，但漲幅不會太大，大概在個位數左右。而對瑞安航空來說，大部分成本都轉化為了利潤。

Now we will have labor cost inflation in the next couple of years. I think ATC will continue to be out badly controlled by government. But overall, we will be -- we're moving into a decade where we're going to start taking aircraft at 20% more seats that burn 20% less fuel per flight. We're looking at a much more operating efficiencies coming through. And I think that justifies a reasonably modest growth in profit per passenger from EUR10 to EUR12 to EUR14, I think, over the next five years to 2030. But then I'm one of like hopeless optimist, which is why I'm employed in the airline industry.

未來幾年我們將面臨勞動成本上漲。我認為空中交通管制仍將受到政府的嚴重控制。但總的來說，我們將進入一個十年，在這個十年裡，我們將開始使用座位數增加 20%，而每次飛行消耗的燃料減少 20% 的飛機。我們預計營運效率將大幅提升。我認為，這足以證明，在未來五年（到 2030 年）內，每位乘客的利潤從 10 歐元增長到 12 歐元再到 14 歐元是合理的。但我屬於那種無可救藥的樂觀主義者，這也是我為什麼會在航空業工作的原因。

Eddie, UK growth impact of APD.

Eddie，APD對英國成長的影響。

Yeah. I mean, notwithstanding the sort of background of continuous APD growth in the UK The way we look at in terms of route development is not just season by season, but there's a continuous carousel of airports that we do deals with. And like if that -- if you've got airports even in a tough market like that, that are willing to share the investment with you in terms of lower cost, well, then we're going to reward that with extra capacity. And we've got extra aircraft going into places like Newcastle, which has gone from zero to two aircraft based and three aircraft based now.

是的。我的意思是，儘管英國航空旅客價格持續成長，但我們看待航線發展的方式不僅僅是按季節來，而是與不同的機場不斷進行交易。如果——即使在像那樣艱難的市場中，如果有些機場願意與你分擔投資，降低成本，那麼我們將以增加運力作為獎勵。我們還增加了飛往紐卡斯爾等地的飛機，這些地方的飛機數量已經從零增加到兩架，現在又增加了三架。

Birmingham has got an extra aircraft. Liverpool has got an extra aircraft, Birmingham, Manchester, Stanford. All these places have extra aircraft going in because they're willing. We're in there for the long term. We're lowering costs there and incentivized for additional traffic.

伯明罕多了一架飛機。利物浦、伯明翰、曼徹斯特和史丹佛各多了一架飛機。這些地方都有額外的飛機投入使用，因為他們願意這樣做。我們是打算長期參與的。我們正在降低那裡的成本，並鼓勵增加客流量。

So it doesn't always go coterminous with the market as you make those investments, and it's going to put even more pressure on (inaudible).

因此，投資行為並不總是與市場走勢同步，這將給市場帶來更大的壓力。（聽不清楚）

Neil, anything you want to add there on UK growth or impact of APD?

尼爾，關於英國的成長或APD的影響，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Not particularly. I think we're -- Eddie and yourself have covered that off fairly well. On the profit per pax, I suppose just to reiterate, it won't go in straight line. There will be years where we'll be up and years where we'll be slightly down.

倒也不是。我認為我們——艾迪和你已經把這件事處理得相當好了。關於每人利潤，我想再次強調，它不會呈直線成長。總會有幾年我們順風順水，也會有幾年我們略顯低迷。

Okay. Thanks. Michal Kaczmarzyk here as well, who's the CEO of Buzz. I might just add, I guess, help us to just to give you maybe his insight into growth in Central Europe, Poland, in particular, the charter market in Buzz. Michal, anything you want to add on growth in those non-tax economies like Poland and Central Europe?

好的。謝謝。這裡還有 Buzz 的執行長 Michal Kaczmarzyk。我想補充一點，或許可以幫助我們向您提供他對中歐、波蘭，特別是 Buzz 包機市場成長的見解。米哈爾，關於波蘭和中歐等非稅收經濟體的成長，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

There are good taxes. True. I mean, Poland and CEE are performing very well. Demand is strong. We have now 80 aircraft allocated in the region. The Poland is the biggest part of the market with 44, offering more or less 40 million seats with the most attractive destinations in CEE.

稅收政策不錯。真的。我的意思是，波蘭和中東歐國家表現都非常好。需求強勁。目前我們在該地區已分配了 80 架飛機。波蘭是最大的市場，擁有 44 個座位，提供約 4000 萬個座位，目的地是中東歐最具吸引力的目的地。

We have very strong brand recognition there at Ryanair, but also supported by our local structure bus generating over [3,500] direct jobs in Central Eastern Europe, supporting another 20,000 airport handling and so on. We make a lot of significant investment in the region through our hangars facility, but also crew training centers. We completed recently the biggest crew training center in Central Eastern Europe with three -- sorry, four full motion simulators. It's located in Krakow.

瑞安航空在那裡擁有非常強大的品牌知名度，同時，我們的本地架構也為中東歐創造了超過 3500 個直接就業崗位，並為另外 20000 個機場處理職位提供了支持等等。我們透過機庫設施以及機組人員培訓中心，在該地區進行了大量重大投資。我們最近建成了中東歐最大的船員訓練中心，配備了三台——抱歉，是四台全動態模擬器。它位於克拉科夫。

We'll be able to train over 300 crew per day. We developed also our Warsaw ops center, focusing now on covering Central Eastern Europe, but also serves as a backup for Dublin ops center. So there is a lot of capacity still we can allocate in Central and Eastern Europe. The only -- the constraint is the number of aircraft we can allocate there. And we are in the good shape to take a lot of market share in the next two, three years.

我們每天可以培訓超過300名船員。我們也建立了華沙營運中心，目前主要負責中東歐地區的業務，同時也作為都柏林營運中心的後備力量。因此，我們在中歐和東歐仍然有很多產能可以分配。唯一的限制是我們能在那裡部署的飛機數量。我們很有希望在未來兩三年內佔據很大的市場。

And there was talk last year of with moving aircraft back from the desert and basing aircraft in Central and Eastern Europe. Are you seeing much of Wizz in those markets? And how is the -- what's the -- Albania, where we're opening a base in Tirana, which is currently a Wizz base. How is the Tirana expansion base going head-to-head with Wizz?

去年曾有討論將飛機從沙漠地區調回中歐和東歐地區，並在那裡部署飛機。你在這些市場看到了很多Wizz的產品嗎？那麼，阿爾巴尼亞的情況如何呢？我們將在地拉那開設一個基地，那裡目前是 Wizz 航空公司的基地。地拉那擴張基地與Wizz的競爭情勢如何？

So aircraft allocation -- I mean, the Wizz aircraft allocation from the desert to Central Eastern Europe, I would say it's too late. I mean, after pre-COVID, we increased in Central Eastern like 40%. We took their capacity or even pass capacity from the region to the region. So now we are the biggest in Poland, the Baltics, Croatia, Slovakia. We have the local structure there where we are able to compete in terms of cost level. There is no cheaper airline than past now in the region.

所以飛機分配——我的意思是，從沙漠到中東歐的威茲航空飛機分配，我認為已經太晚了。我的意思是，在新冠疫情爆發前，我們在中東地區的成長率達到了 40% 左右。我們利用了他們的運力，甚至將運力從一個地區傳遞到另一個地區。所以現在我們在波蘭、波羅的海三國、克羅埃西亞和斯洛伐克都是最大的公司。我們在當地擁有相應的組織架構，因此能夠在成本水準上具有競爭力。該地區沒有比現在更便宜的航空公司了。

Also with the highest fleet utilization ratio in the industry, over 6 hectares per aircraft per day. So the new base launch next summer will be Tirana for us, with quite significant capacity of Wizz. But what I mentioned, we are absolutely not afraid of that because our local structure there guarantee us the lowest cost. Once we deliver the lowest cost, we are able to deliver the lowest fares there as well.

此外，該公司還擁有業界最高的機隊利用率，每架飛機每天佔用超過 6 公頃的土地。因此，明年夏天我們的新基地將設在地拉那，威茲航空將提供相當大的運力。但正如我所說，我們絕對不擔心這一點，因為我們在當地的架構可以保證我們獲得最低的成本。一旦我們實現了最低成本，我們也能夠在當地實現最低票價。

Thanks, Michal. Eddie, anything you want to add on growth there before we --

謝謝你，米哈爾。艾迪，在我們開始之前，你還有什麼想補充的關於成長方面的內容嗎？--

I mean, just touch on the point there, you talk about Wizz and what's happening out there, where their policy or their growth strategy is to go back to Central and Eastern Europe. And certainly, what we pick up from the airports is that those that are incentivizing us to grow is that we're there for the long term. And you can see even cancellations in (inaudible) from Wizz before they've even started back there. So some of that has been replicated.

我的意思是，就簡單提一下這一點，你談到了 Wizz 以及那裡正在發生的事情，他們的政策或成長策略是重返中歐和東歐。當然，我們從機場了解到，那些激勵我們發展的人是希望我們能長期發展。你甚至可以看到 Wizz 的航班在開機前就已經取消了（聽不清楚）。所以其中一些內容已經被複製了。

And you hear a lot of noise, but not a lot of lot of action that even extends to places like Italy, where we're doing almost 1,200 frequencies a week, and you've got less than 100 frequencies a week from Wizz. But I think airports recognize Ryanair is in for the long term, do a deal with Ryanair, get the cost down and you have the traffic for the long term rather than looking at these other short-term deals that are available (inaudible).

你聽到了很多噪音，但並沒有看到很多實際行動，甚至連義大利這樣的地方也沒有。我們每週在義大利使用近 1200 個頻率，而 Wizz 每週使用的頻率不到 100 個。但我認為機場方面都意識到瑞安航空是著眼於長期發展的，所以與瑞安航空達成協議，降低成本，就能長期保證客流量，而不是去考慮其他那些短期交易。（聽不清楚）

Stephen Furlong, Davy.

史蒂芬‧弗隆，戴維。

Just on Boeing, last week, they had the results, and I thought they were pretty vague on the certification. They just said 2026, maybe the deliberately were for the MAX 10. I mean, a little bit more work on the 10 and the 7 and hardware and software modifications, although they did say it was pretty straightforward. So just might talk about that, what exactly they're telling you.

就波音公司而言，上週他們公佈了結果，但我認為他們對認證的陳述相當含糊。他們只是說了 2026 年，也許他們故意是指 MAX 10。我的意思是，雖然他們說這很簡單，但還需要對 10 和 7 進行一些硬體和軟體方面的修改。所以或許可以談談這件事，他們到底跟你說了什麼。

And then you mentioned labor. Could you just remind us what's the timetable for CLAs? I think most of them are in 2027 and stuff that would be great, the contract labor agreements.

然後你提到了勞動力問題。請問CLA的日程是怎樣的？我認為大部分內容都會在 2027 年左右完成，例如合約勞動協議之類的，那將會非常棒。

Yeah. I mean, I think it's one of this -- I give Boeing more credit. The new management team is doing much more credit. The old management team would give us all sorts of pie in the sky, to be here tomorrow, next week and then miss targets all over the place. The new guys are much more cautious.

是的。我的意思是，我認為是其中之一——我更看好波音公司。新管理團隊功不可沒。以前的管理團隊總是為我們許下各種不切實際的幻想，讓我們明天、下週都來上班，結果卻處處達不到目標。新來的隊員們謹慎得多。

They don't want to make promises they can't deliver. And I think that's the sensible place for them to be in. But you look at what they have delivered, they've got FAA approval to go from rate 38 to rate 42 in October. They're now talking about going to rate 46 in March, April next year. That doesn't really affect us.

他們不想做出無法兌現的承諾。我認為那是他們應該採取的明智之舉。但看看他們所取得的成果，他們已經獲得了美國聯邦航空管理局的批准，可以在 10 月將飛行速率從 38 提高到 42。他們現在正在討論明年三月或四月將評級提高到 46 級。那對我們沒什麼影響。

I mean, we'll have finished our -- the Gamechanger deliveries at the end of February. But at least we have all 29 aircraft in for summer 2026. There is a risk at the moment with the government shutdown that certification, they're pretty confident talking to us. And actually, we get this on the other side from talking to EASA, who are involved in. EASA are very impressed with the work that the Boeing of the management team and the work that they're doing.

我的意思是，我們將在二月底完成「遊戲規則改變者」的交付。但至少我們已經確保所有 29 架飛機都能在 2026 年夏季交付使用。目前由於政府停擺，認證存在一定風險，但他們和我們交談時相當有信心。事實上，我們從與參與其中的歐洲航空安全局 (EASA) 的交談中也得到了這一訊息。歐洲航空安全局對波音公司管理團隊及其所做的工作印象深刻。

And we get a lot of very positive feedback from EASA. So I think they're right to be somewhat cautious to underpromise and overdeliver. But we have a reasonable headroom there. At the moment, they're talking about MAX 7 being certified by -- in Q2 next year, MAX 10 in Q3. That could slip to Q4 or to Q1 of 2027, and we would still get our 15 deliveries in the spring of 2027.

我們從歐洲航空安全局（EASA）獲得了許多非常正面的回饋。所以我認為他們謹慎行事，少承諾多兌現的做法是正確的。但我們在這方面還有相當大的迴旋餘地。目前，他們正在討論 MAX 7 將於明年第二季獲得認證，MAX 10 將於第三季獲得認證。交付時間可能會推遲到 2027 年第四季或第一季度，但我們仍然可以在 2027 年春季收到 15 批貨物。

Now clearly, we'd be one of the lead operators of the MAX 10. I wouldn't have any issue with that. The sooner we can get them, the better. But they're telling us and have gone in writing that they will meet our delivery date, the first 15 delivery dates, the first contracted 15 delivery dates in the spring of '27, they will meet. That's what gave us the confidence in the treasury function to go out and start hedging the US dollar on those firm deliveries. And we're looking for more opportunities to extend those hedging.

很顯然，我們將成為 MAX 10 的主要營運商之一。我對此沒有任何異議。我們越早拿到它們越好。但他們告訴我們，並且已經書面承諾，他們將按時交付，前 15 個交付日期，即 2027 年春季簽訂合約的前 15 個交付日期，他們將按時交付。正是這一點讓我們對財政部的職能充滿信心，從而開始對這些確定交割的美元進行對沖。我們正在尋找更多機會來擴大這些對沖範圍。

So I think Boeing were right to be a little bit cautious in their public commentary, but all of the delivery on the ground in terms of quality of what they're delivering to us and the timeliness of what they're delivering to us now has been nothing but impressive for the last three or four months. Now they clearly don't need any screw up along the way.

所以我認為波音公司在公開評論中保持謹慎是正確的，但就過去三、四個月來他們交付給我們的產品品質和及時性而言，所有實際交付工作都令人印象深刻。現在他們顯然不希望在這個過程中出現任何錯誤。

But in Stephanie Pope, who is sitting on top of the production line in Seattle, there's somebody who's there every day. You can pick up the phone and call her. She gets back to you. She's really is well on top of it, and I would be very supportive of the work she's been doing. Maybe I'll add over -- so timetable on CLA, Eddie, while most of our labor contracts run out to -- our rates -- come up for renewal in April '27.

但史蒂芬妮·波普坐在西雅圖生產線的頂端，她每天都在那裡。你可以拿起電話打給她。她會回覆你的。她真的做得很好，我會非常支持她所做的工作。也許我會補充一些內容——所以CLA的時間表，Eddie，雖然我們的大部分勞動合約都到期了——我們的費率——將在2027年4月續約。

And there's a couple of labor contracts that will be up two or three on the pilot side and again, a similar number on the cabin crew side. But like a lot of what we're -- it's not always just about pay. I mean, if you look at the disruption that's happened against the background of ATC and Ryanair's ability allow its people to actually deliver sort of a stable working environment underpinned by the continuation of the plan for roster, which will be a key part of any discussions on the CLA.

還有幾份勞工合同，飛行員方面會有兩到三份，乘務員方面也有類似數量的合約。但就像我們所做的事情一樣——這並不總是僅僅關乎薪酬。我的意思是，如果你看看空中交通管制方面發生的混亂，以及瑞安航空如何讓員工能夠提供一個穩定的工作環境，並以輪班計劃的延續為基礎，這將是任何關於集體勞動協議討論的關鍵部分。

And we've seen also over the last number of years, one of the dividends of doing local labor contracts is that people now not only are in the right -- most people are in the right place where they want to be, and it's relatively easy in terms of how they're paid, the local bureaucracy administration and labs have made a huge investment with that in terms of -- it's so much easier now. It's easier than it's ever been in Ryanair's history for people in far-flown basis to get the smart things done, how do I get my time off, how do I get my payroll queries, and that's all done through sort of a platform called Ryanair Connect.

過去幾年我們也看到，簽訂本地勞動合約的好處之一是，人們現在不僅在合適的地方——大多數人都在他們想去的地方——而且在薪酬方面也相對容易，當地官僚機構和實驗室在這方面投入了巨資——現在一切都容易多了。在瑞安航空的歷史上，對於經常出差的乘客來說，處理各種重要事務比以往任何時候都更加容易，例如如何請假、如何查詢工資等，所有這些都可以透過一個名為 Ryanair Connect 的平台完成。

So there's lots of things like pilots and cabin crew more than ever value given the disruption that are there -- the disruption that is driven by ATC to have a stable working environment. I mean, like this August, for example, we had our lowest cancellation level ever, completely different from the previous season. A lot of that, again, is about recovering on the day. So we'll be talking with our union partners in terms of the renewal of agreements. We will try to do long-term, stable agreement, but underpinned by superior working conditions that I think are increasingly becoming more valuable. So it's not all just about one.

因此，對於飛行員和機組人員來說，鑑於目前存在的各種幹擾——空中交通管制部門為了營造穩定的工作環境而造成的干擾——許多事情比以往任何時候都更加重要。我的意思是，例如今年八月，我們的取消預訂量創歷史新低，與上個季度完全不同。很多時候，這都與當天的恢復有關。所以我們將與工會夥伴商討續約協議的事宜。我們將努力達成長期穩定的協議，但前提是必須有優越的工作條件，我認為這些條件正變得越來越有價值。所以，事情並非只關乎一個人。

Touch on the Spanish CLA?

談西班牙CLA？

We just concluded the Spanish CLA for the cabin crew, which was one of the last ones post sort of unionization. There were some bumps in the road, but actually was signed there last week, now we ratified by the local labor authority, and that's for cabin crew. That's very welcome. That goes out to 2030 into that deal. And that sort of sets somewhat of a benchmark for where we're going to go with the new deals that are going to come up, particularly on the cabin crew side.

我們剛完成了西班牙空服員集體勞動協議（CLA），這是工會化之後最後幾個集體勞動協議之一。雖然過程中遇到了一些波折，但上週確實已經簽署了協議，現在也得到了當地勞動部門的批准，這是針對機組人員的協議。那真是太好了。該協議的有效期至2030年。這在某種程度上為我們未來將要達成的新協議，特別是機組人員方面的協議，設定了一個基準。

And Darrell, you want to add anything to that on the CLA side and Chief People Officer? Darrell, no? Okay. Maybe Darrell's not on the line.

達雷爾，你作為CLA和首席人力資源官還有什麼要補充的嗎？達雷爾，對吧？好的。也許達雷爾不在電話那頭。

Look, as you rightly say, Stephen, the labor contracts run out to April '27. That will (inaudible) kind of is timed to meet the deliveries of the MAX 10s. And there's no doubt we're going to get a productivity gain out of those MAX 10 aircraft, not so much from the extra seats, but from the fuel consumption on the engines, which is dramatic. We are willing, I think, to share some of that productivity upside with our people. I think they -- but Darrell and his team have started those kind of discussions around 2026 and 2027.

正如你所說，史蒂芬，勞動合約到 2027 年 4 月才到期。那（聽不清楚）的時機安排是為了配合 MAX 10 的交付。毫無疑問，MAX 10 飛機將提高生產效率，這主要不是因為增加了座位，而是因為引擎的燃油消耗量大幅降低。我認為，我們願意與員工分享部分生產力提升所帶來的好處。我認為他們——但達雷爾和他的團隊已經開始了關於 2026 年和 2027 年的這類討論。

We have, as Tracey has already said, record low attrition. I mean, we have almost no pilots and no cabin crew attrition at the moment. People are happy where they are. They're being well paid. They're in the basis they want to be in. Clearly, the Gulf carriers, which would historically have been a kind of the valve that would have recruited a lot of our pilots, they don't have any capacity growth either at the moment.

正如特蕾西已經說過的那樣，我們的人員流失率創歷史新低。我的意思是，目前我們幾乎沒有飛行員，也沒有機組人員流失。人們對現在的生活狀態很滿意。他們收入頗豐。他們現在身處在他們想要待的地方。顯然，海灣地區的航空公司，從歷史上看，它們一直是招募我們許多飛行員的管道，但目前它們也沒有任何運力成長。

So things have never been more stable. But I think we will be seeing productivity gains coming over the next couple of years, and we are certainly minded to do deals with -- as long as we can do sensible deals. Will we do unsensible deals? No, we won't. I mean, we've taken strikes in Belgium in the last 12 months.

所以，現在的情況從未如此穩定。但我認為未來幾年我們將看到生產力提高，我們當然願意達成交易——只要我們能達成合理的交易。我們會進行不明智的交易嗎？不，我們不會。我的意思是，過去12個月裡，比利時曾經發生過罷工。

We've taken an occasional strike in Spain. We're happy to take strikes where people don't want to be stupid. We'll take strikes and we will face them down. But I think there is some upside coming in the next couple of years. And certainly, we will want our people to be at the front end of that.

我們在西班牙偶爾也會舉行罷工。我們樂於在人們不想做蠢事的時候進行罷工。我們會接受罷工，我們會迎難而上。但我認為未來幾年會有一些好轉的跡象。當然，我們希望我們的人民能夠站在最前線。

And if we can conclude new pay deals in the next -- either from April '26 or for April '27. And if that results in a step-up in labor cost, it's something I think we'd be willing to fund and finance. So watch this space, and we would hope to make progress on that over the next 6, 9, 12 months.

如果我們能在下一個季度達成新的薪資協議——無論是從 2026 年 4 月開始還是從 2027 年 4 月開始。如果這導致勞動力成本上升，我認為我們願意為此提供資金和融資。請關注，我們希望在接下來的 6、9、12 個月內在這方面取得進展。

Alex Irving, Bernstein.

亞歷克斯歐文，伯恩斯坦。

Two from me, please. First, on ancillaries. Really good to see that robust growth continuing on from Q1. What's driving that? Is it product innovation? Is it pricing decompressing two years into one as you reinstate the OTAs and flat unit ancillaries at this time of last year? And then related to that, what do you expect for unit ancillary sales over the coming years?

請給我兩個。首先，關於輔助設備。很高興看到強勁的成長勢頭延續了第一季的水平。是什麼原因導致這種情況？這是產品創新嗎？去年這個時候，你們恢復了線上旅行社 (OTA) 和固定單位附屬服務，這是否意味著兩年的價格壓縮到一年之內？那麼，與此相關的是，您對未來幾年單元輔助產品的銷售額有何預期？

Second question is on CapEx. You've previously spoken about peak CapEx of around EUR3 billion in FY30, '31. You talked about locking in some of the dollar weakness and some of those gains into your future CapEx budget. What are your latest expectations for peak CapEx? When and how much, please?

第二個問題是關於資本支出。您之前曾提到 2030 財年和 2031 財年的資本支出高峰約為 30 億歐元。您提到要將美元疲軟帶來的部分收益鎖定到未來的資本支出預算。您對資本支出高峰的最新預期是什麼？請問何時以及費用是多少？

Thanks, Alex. So maybe I'll ask Tracey McCann to take the ancillaries question. And Neil, you might come in and do CapEx, our peak CapEx. Tracey, ancillary?

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。所以，我或許會請特蕾西·麥肯來回答輔助設備方面的問題。尼爾，你可能會來負責資本支出，我們的資本支出高峰期。特蕾西，輔助角色？

Okay. The ancillary growth, 3%. A lot of that is driven what we said from dynamic pricing. So we're starting to get better pricing on seats, better pricing on bags. We also have our order to seat service, which is increasing our onboard spend.

好的。輔助成長率為 3%。正如我們之前所說，這很大程度上是由動態定價所驅動的。所以我們開始能以更優惠的價格買到座位，也能以更優惠的價格買到行李。我們還有點餐入座服務，這增加了我們的機上消費。

And so probably fall back a little bit, you're going to be faced with the same thing on the comparables in the second half of the year. So maybe not as strong as the first half and probably about 2% per annum, I would say, beyond this year. But again, a lot of it is driven by what the labs team are doing in-house in driving them increments we can get on pricing.

因此，下半年可能會面臨同樣的情況，所以預期可能會有所回落。所以，或許不如上半年那麼強勁，而且我認為，今年以後，年增長率可能在 2% 左右。但話說回來，很多時候，這取決於實驗室團隊在內部所做的工作，以及他們如何推動我們在價格上取得進展。

Okay. Neil, do you want to touch on CapEx?

好的。尼爾，你想談談資本支出嗎？

Yeah, Alex, there's not a lot to add at this stage. We're only 35% hedged on the firm, the 150 aircraft. We haven't done anything on the options yet. The CapEx that we've guided in the past doesn't include engine shops. So it's a little bit premature to start changing numbers at this point in time. I prefer to wait until the engine shops agreed and then come out and refresh the numbers at that point in time.

是的，Alex，現階段沒什麼好補充的了。我們對該公司的150架飛機只進行了35%的對沖。我們還沒有對方案採取任何行動。我們過去指導的資本支出不包括引擎車間。所以現在開始更改數字還為時過早。我傾向等到引擎維修店同意後，再過來更新編號。

John Norton here, Head of Trading. John, do you want to add on -- sorry, go ahead, Neil.

我是交易主管約翰·諾頓。約翰，你想補充什麼嗎？ ——抱歉，尼爾，請繼續。

No, that's pretty much it.

不，差不多就是這樣了。

John, do you want to add anything on CapEx on the treasury or currencies?

約翰，你對國庫或外匯的資本支出還有補充嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Yes, look, we've got a nice layer in place there on the CapEx (inaudible) for the MAX. I mean, when you look at it at the start of the year, where euro dollar levels were down at 1.02, 1.03 in January. And then when you also factor in when the contract was signed and it was at 1.08.

是的。謝謝你，麥可。是的，你看，我們已經為 MAX 的資本支出（聽不清楚）做好了充分的準備。我的意思是，如果你回顧年初的情況，1 月歐元兌美元匯率跌至 1.02、1.03。然後，還要考慮到合約簽訂的時間，當時的價格是 1.08。

We have that nice space in place now to take us forward. Now we'll just look for opportunities when we see them just where markets going forward to build on that.

我們現在已經擁有了向前邁進的良好空間。現在，我們會尋找機會，看看未來的市場在哪裡，並以此為基礎進行發展。

Dudley Shanley, Goodbody.

達德利·尚利，古德博迪。

Two questions. The first one, Michael, you were on CNBC this morning. And I think if I'm listening to you correctly, you said the consumers seem to be a little bit more price sensitive at the moment. How are you seeing that coming through your business? Is that just a temporary thing?

兩個問題。邁克爾，第一個問題是，你今天早上上了CNBC。如果我沒理解錯的話，您是說消費者目前似乎對價格更敏感了。您認為這會對您的業務產生怎樣的影響？這只是暫時的嗎？

And then the second question was to do with capacity constraints. Just what are you watching on that kind of three- to five-year view that it will remain as constrained? I know some people have been talking about the likes of aircraft from people like Spirit and think that's been shifted over to Europe. What do you watch? Thank you.

第二個問題與產能限制有關。你究竟在觀察什麼，才能得出這種三到五年內仍將受到限制的結論？我知道有些人一直在談論像 Spirit 這樣的航空公司的飛機，並認為這種模式已經轉移到了歐洲。你平常看什麼節目？謝謝。

Thanks. I mean, where do we see consumer price sensitivity at the moment, I think, is the fact that forward bookings without any price promotion at the moment are running close to 1% ahead of where they were this time last year. And this time last year, we were actually coming off the kind of OTA pricing down 7%, lower fares. At the moment, fares are up in the first half of the year, 13%. We think that will be a little less in the second half of the year.

謝謝。我的意思是，目前消費者對價格的敏感度體現在哪裡呢？我認為，目前沒有任何價格促銷活動的預訂量比去年同期增加了近 1%。而去年這個時候，我們其實正處於OTA定價下降7%、票價降低的時期。目前，今年上半年票價上漲了 13%。我們認為下半年這種情況會略有減少。

And yet we're -- pricing is coming -- running against us or forward bookings are running against us. If anything, we're kind of slightly closing off cheaper seats to try to restrain forward bookings because clearly, we want to keep as much capacity we can for the closer-in bookings, particularly as you run up against Christmas and the New Year.

然而，我們卻面臨定價策略的挑戰，或者說預訂情況對我們不利。如果有什麼變化的話，那就是我們稍微減少了低價座位的供應，以抑制提前預訂，因為很明顯，我們希望盡可能多地保留座位，以滿足臨近聖誕節和新年期間的預訂需求。

In markets where we are expanding capacity, regional Italy, very strong. A new thing we've identified recently in Italy is Alitalia -- seem to have a number of their aircraft fleet grounded, particularly in the domestic market as the shortest spares. And we are expanding -- seeing very strong loads. Okay, the prices are lower in domestic, Italy, domestic Spain, that kind of stuff, but strong growth. And I note there is clearly a bit of consumer price sensitivity there.

在我們正在擴大產能的市場中，義大利地區市場表現非常強勁。我們最近在義大利發現了一個新情況，那就是義大利航空似乎停飛了不少飛機，尤其是在國內市場，因為那裡的備件最短缺。我們正在擴張——業務量非常大。好吧，國內價格較低，例如義大利國內、西班牙國內等等，但成長強勁。我注意到，消費者對價格顯然有一定的敏感度。

I'm campaigning aggressively against Rachel Reeves putting up APD or doing any more damage to the UK economic growth. But in a kind of slightly bizarre screwed up way, the more she damages economic growth and confidence in the UK, the more people will switch away from paying higher fares to BA and others on to Ryanair.

我正在積極開展運動，反對瑞秋·里夫斯提出APD法案，或對英國經濟成長造成任何進一步的損害。但從某種略顯怪異的扭曲角度來看，她對英國經濟成長和信心的損害越大，人們就越會放棄支付更高的票價乘坐英國航空和其他航空公司的航班，轉而選擇瑞安航空。

So I think that all augurs well for our growth over the next couple of years. Capacity constraints, what do we look for? I mean, the only thing you can really look for is Boeing and Airbus orders. And they are -- the most recent one was Turkish, which I think was kind of preannounced by Trump when he was sitting with Erdogan at some meeting in Ankara. And even Turkish, which has announced an order for, I think, 200 or 250 narrow-body 737s, but they have no engines.

所以我認為，未來幾年我們的發展前景一片光明。產能受限，我們該關注哪些方面？我的意思是，你唯一能關注的就是波音和空中巴士的訂單。而且確實如此——最近一次是土耳其的，我認為川普在安卡拉與艾爾段會面時就已經預先宣布了此事。甚至連土耳其航空也宣布訂購了 200 或 250 架窄體 737 飛機，但他們還沒有引擎。

They're now complaining that they can't get a deal out of the engine manufacturers. I mean, in our day, when we order aircraft, you're Boeing, you go sort out the engines. But we wouldn't buy, order an aircraft unless it has engines attached. The market has moved so aggressively in favor of the engine manufacturers. People are now kind of ordering aircraft but with no engines and then kind of being price takers when they go to do deals on aircraft.

他們現在抱怨說無法與引擎製造商達成協議。我的意思是，在我們這個時代，當我們訂購飛機時，你是波音公司，你得去解決引擎的問題。但是，除非飛機裝有發動機，否則我們是不會購買或訂購的。市場已經朝著非常有利於引擎製造商的方向發展。現在人們有點像是在訂購沒有引擎的飛機，然後在飛機交易中被迫接受價格。

Really, I don't see anything -- I mean, if some of those aircraft appear out of Spirit, I think the chance of those appearing in Europe are zero. Airlines in Asia or in the Middle East and would be much more aggressive and willing to pay much higher lease rates than airlines in Europe. I see no demand among Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, IAG for capacity growth. They're all playing the same game. They've consolidated.

真的，我什麼也沒看到——我的意思是，如果其中一些飛機出現在精神航空，我認為它們出現在歐洲的可能性為零。亞洲或中東的航空公司會比歐洲的航空公司更積極主動，並且願意支付更高的租賃價格。我認為漢莎航空、法國航空-荷航集團和國際航空集團對運能成長沒有需求。他們玩的都是同一場遊戲。他們已經合併了。

They want to control capacity. If any, they'll keep shaving capacity so they can get air fares up. Wizz has canceled or desperately trying to -- well, IndiGo, not Wizz are definitely trying to postpone those Airbus orders into the mid-2030s, which by the time you've added 5 or 6 or 10 years of escalation, those already expensive aircraft will be even more expensive. And all easyJet is doing is upgauging from an A319 to 321s at their fortress airports, Gatwick, Paris, Switzerland. That makes sense.

他們想要控制產能。如果有的話，他們會繼續削減運力，以便提高機票價格。Wizz航空已經取消或正在拼命嘗試——好吧，確切地說是IndiGo航空，而不是Wizz航空，他們肯定正在努力將空中巴士訂單推遲到2030年代中期，而到那時，隨著5年、6年或10年成本的上漲，這些原本就很昂貴的飛機將會更加昂貴。易捷航空所做的只是將其位於蓋特威克機場、巴黎機場和瑞士機場這幾個主要機場的飛機從A319升級到A321。這很有道理。

It's a sensible thing to do. But as we track across Europe, as Michal has said in Central Europe, we don't see Wizz anywhere. In fact, as Eddie has mentioned, most of the big incentives we'll get -- growth incentives we're getting from airports are from Wizz customer airports who are shooting themselves that Wizz is going to go bust in the not-too-distant future. I think there's a reasonable prospect and are getting Ryanair to come in there and kind of, if you like, almost as the insurance policy against a Wizz collapse. Now I don't think Wizz will collapse.

這是個明智的做法。但正如米哈爾在中歐所說，當我們追蹤整個歐洲的情況時，我們到處都看不到 Wizz 的身影。事實上，正如艾迪所提到的那樣，我們將獲得的大部分重大激勵措施——我們從機場獲得的成長激勵措施——都來自威茲航空的客戶機場，這些機場自相矛盾地認為威茲航空會在不久的將來破產。我認為前景可期，我們正在爭取瑞安航空的加入，這就像是為了防止威茲航空倒閉而購買的一份保險。現在我認為Wizz不會倒閉。

But I mean, as a competitor, we wouldn't pay any attention to them at all. I mean, the idea that they're going to close one of their desert bases in Abu Dhabi, noteworthy that they haven't closed the one in Riyadh, and they're going to move that capacity back to Central and Eastern Europe, well, whoopty doo. We haven't seen them yet. I think they've expanded their definition of Central and Eastern Europe to the stands. Apparently, most of the stands are now in Central and Eastern Europe, if you go by the Wizz definition. Meanwhile, we're charging in on top of them in Albania. They were competing with us in Italy and in Austria where two or three years ago, they disappeared.

但我的意思是，作為競爭對手，我們根本不會理會他們。我的意思是，他們要關閉位於阿布達比的沙漠基地之一（值得注意的是，他們還沒有關閉位於利雅德的基地），並將產能轉移回中歐和東歐，這真是太棒了。我們還沒見過他們。我認為他們已經把中歐和東歐的定義擴展到了看台上。如果按照 Wizz 的定義，顯然現在大多數攤位都位於中歐和東歐。同時，我們在阿爾巴尼亞向他們發動猛攻。他們曾在義大利和奧地利與我們競爭，但在兩、三年前，他們就從這兩個國家消失了。

So we have a reasonably benign kind of map across Europe where most airports want us to grow there. And increasingly, countries want us to or incentivizing us to grow by abolishing environmental taxes. And that is Sweden, Albania.

因此，我們在歐洲的地圖上呈現出相對溫和的態勢，大多數機場都希望我們在那裡發展壯大。而且，越來越多的國家希望我們這樣做，或透過取消環境稅來激勵我們發展。那就是瑞典和阿爾巴尼亞。

I don't go through the list again. One of the areas where airports were growing fastest in next year would be in Bratislava, where we had a three aircraft base. An hour up the road, the Austrians have failed to abolish their stupid environmental tax, which was less than EUR160 million a year. Vienna has put up its fees by 30% since COVID. And all of the airlines, including now Ryanair are taking aircraft out of Vienna and putting in Bratislava.

我不會再瀏覽一次清單。明年機場成長最快的地區之一是布拉迪斯拉發，我們在那裡有一個擁有三架飛機的基地。再往前開一個小時，奧地利人沒能廢除他們愚蠢的環境稅，這項稅每年不到 1.6 億歐元。自新冠疫情以來，維也納的收費標準提高了30%。包括瑞安航空在內的所有航空公司都將飛機從維也納轉移到布拉迪斯拉發。

We had already announced an increase in our Bratislava base in three to five aircraft next year. And then about three weeks later, Wizz announced they're going to open two or three aircraft based in Bratislava, which is wonderful because in order to be able -- the only thing we could do to respond to Wiz arrival in Bratislava is put up our airfares there. So they'd be somewhat competitive with Wizz who come in there with fares that are about 40%, 50% more expensive than Ryanair. And the outcome will be exactly the same as it was previously in Vienna or in Italy.

我們先前已經宣布，明年將在布拉迪斯拉發基地增加三到五架飛機。大約三週後，威茲航空宣布將在布拉迪斯拉發開設兩到三架飛機基地，這真是太好了，因為為了能夠——我們唯一能做的就是提高那裡的機票價格來應對威茲航空進駐布拉迪斯拉發。所以他們與威茲航空（Wizz Airlines）會有一定的競爭力，威茲航空的票價比瑞安航空貴40%到50%。結果將與之前在維也納或義大利發生的情況完全一樣。

Wizz will lose, we'll win and the people of Bratislava will be left with the lowest fare airline, Ryanair, delivering all of that growth. But in Slovakia, there's a new transport minister, a new government, they've abolished environmental taxes. They've cut ATC fees by 50%, and the airport is incentivizing growth. Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves is over here in the UK, considering whether she further increases APD, taxes the rich, and follows the Marxist-Leninis North Korean growth model, which consists of taxing the s*** out of everything that moves with the result that nothing f****** moves in the end. But to the extent that the UK economy suffers, I think more and more English people we can take will start fleeing to Ryanair and away from high-fare airlines like easyJet and BA.

Wizz航空將會失敗，我們將獲勝，而布拉迪斯拉發的人民將只能依靠票價最低的航空公司——瑞安航空——來實現所有增長。但在斯洛伐克，新的交通部長、新的政府上台後，他們廢除了環境稅。他們將空中交通管制費降低了 50%，機場也正在鼓勵發展。與此同時，瑞秋·里夫斯在英國，正在考慮是否要進一步提高平均價格差，向富人徵稅，並效仿馬克思列寧主義的朝鮮增長模式，即對所有流動的事物徵收重稅，最終導致一切都停滯不前。但我認為，隨著英國經濟遭受重創，越來越多的英國人會開始選擇瑞安航空，而不再選擇易捷航空和英國航空等高票價航空公司。

Connor Dwyer, Citi.

康納‧德懷爾，花旗銀行。

First question is for you, Michael. You were talking about how ETS credit prices should come in line with CORSIA, which would obviously be quite material if that did happen. But how much of this is hope and how much you think this might actually change? Is there a political will for this?

第一個問題問你，麥可。你之前提到過ETS碳信用價格應該與CORSIA保持一致，如果這種情況真的發生，那顯然意義重大。但其中有多少是希望，又有多少是你認為這種情況真的會改變？是否有政治意願來做這件事？

And then the second question for Neil, on the cost per pax. It was obviously up 1% in the first half of the year, and you're talking about a bit of acceleration to the back half of the year, I think. You've got quite a strong fuel hedge position for that. So I'm just wondering where are you expecting some non-fuel cost pressure in the back half of the year? Thanks very much.

接下來是問尼爾的第二個問題，關於每人成本。顯然，上半年成長了 1%，我認為你指的是下半年增速加快了。你的燃料對沖部位相當穩健。所以我想知道，您預計下半年非燃料成本的壓力會反映在哪些方面？非常感謝。

Thanks, Connor. I mean, talking about moving ETS to CORSIA, somebody has to leave the campaign. We've been calling for this for about two years. We didn't have the support of the flag carriers in A4E, Lufthansa, IAG, or Air France-KLM. But they're now much more badly impacted by the withdrawal of free ETSs because they haven't grown for the last 10 years, most of their traffic was covered by free allowed ETS allowances.

謝謝你，康納。我的意思是，既然要把ETS遷移到CORSIA，那就必須有人退出戰役。我們呼籲這件事已經兩年多了。我們沒有得到 A4E、漢莎航空、IAG 或法國航空-荷航集團等旗艦航空公司的支援。但由於過去 10 年他們的業務沒有成長，而且他們的大部分流量都由免費排放配額覆蓋，因此取消免費排放配額對他們的影響更加嚴重。

As Europe unwinds those free ETS allowances, they're getting much more hit or the cost impact on them is much more severe. And lo and behold, they're all now campaigning for moving -- well, if we're not going to abolish ETSs altogether, at least move in line with CORSIA, it is utterly indefensible that Europe taxes the s*** out of Europeans traveling within Europe. And yet the Americans, the Gulf carriers, the Asian carriers, all land and take off in Europe. They account for 53% of European aviation CO2 emissions and yet pay nothing. So I think the fact that A4E is now unanimous on this, I mean, how much of it is -- I'm much more optimistic that we will see some movement on that.

隨著歐洲逐步取消這些免費的碳排放交易體系配額，它們受到的打擊更大，或者說成本影響更嚴重。瞧，他們現在都在呼籲——好吧，如果我們不打算徹底廢除歐盟排放交易體系，至少也應該與CORSIA保持一致，那麼歐洲對在歐洲境內旅行的歐洲人徵收重稅是完全站不住腳的。然而，美國、海灣地區的航空公司、亞洲的航空公司，都在歐洲起降。它們佔歐洲航空二氧化碳排放量的 53%，卻無需繳納任何費用。所以我認為，A4E 現在在這個問題上達成了一致，我的意思是，這其中有多少是共識——我對此更加樂觀，認為我們會看到這方面取得一些進展。

Now we still have the dead hand of Ursula von der Leyen to deal with. But ultimately, I think you can even embarrass an incompetent German into -- I can actually do something on competitiveness. The Draghi report is 14 months old. She's done absolutely nothing. And I think if we build ahead of steam there, there's a reasonable prospect that Europe through the fog of failure will ultimately want to do something other than spend hundreds of billions on defense, but to make its economy more efficient.

現在我們仍然要面對烏蘇拉馮德萊恩留下的爛攤子。但最終，我認為你甚至可以讓一個無能的德國人感到難堪——我其實可以在競爭方面做些什麼。德拉吉的報告已經過去14個月了。她什麼都沒做。我認為，如果我們提前做好準備，歐洲很有可能在失敗的迷霧中最終不再想把數千億美元花在國防上，而是想讓經濟更有效率。

And air travel is clearly one of the ways of doing that. It would be material. It would be result in a dramatic or a significant reduction in airfares. Remember, passengers are paying these ETSs. It would result in a significant reduction in airfares.

而航空旅行顯然是實現這一目標的方式之一。這將是重要的材料。這將導致機票價格大幅下降。請記住，乘客要支付這些排放交易費用。這將導致機票價格大幅下降。

But at least it would mean that everybody in Europe is paying the same fair share as the non-Europeans, whereas at the moment, the Europeans paying all of the taxes, the non-Europeans getting completely free ride and useless Europe in the middle of it or useless von der Leyen sitting in the middle of it, terrified of Trump or taxing the non-Europeans. And so I think it's a call whose time has come.

但至少這意味著歐洲的每個人都要和非歐洲人支付同樣的公平份額，而目前的情況是，歐洲人繳納了所有的稅款，非歐洲人完全搭便車，而無能的歐洲夾在中間，或者無能的馮德萊恩坐在中間，害怕川普，害怕對非歐洲人徵稅。所以我認為，現在是時候發出這個呼籲了。

I also believe, and again, I'm one of life's great optimist, that actually, we will embarrass her into doing something about air traffic control or at least defending and protecting the single market. She was the one who was singing most vociferously during the Brexit negotiations that the single market is sacrosanct. We will do everything to defend the single market unless, of course, a couple of French air traffic controllers want to go on strike.

我也相信（我自己是個樂觀主義者），我們最終會讓她感到難堪，從而促使她對空中交通管制採取一些措施，或至少捍衛和保護單一市場。在英國脫歐談判期間，她曾最強烈地宣稱單一市場神聖不可侵犯。我們將竭盡全力捍衛單一市場，除非，當然，有幾個法國空中交通管制員想要罷工。

So I think ultimately, again, and I am much more motivated. Commissioner Tzitzikostas is really a guy who wants to get things done. He wants to deliver change. I think he really does want to transform air travel in Europe. He's from Greece. Therefore, they're very sensitive to making air travel more efficient. And I am very hopeful that him, together with the unanimity out of the A4E airlines, we will see some movement in Europe on ETS in the next year or two.

所以我覺得最終，我又一次更有動力了。專員齊齊科斯塔斯確實是個想把事情做好的人。他想帶來改變。我認為他確實想改變歐洲的航空旅行格局。他來自希臘。因此，他們對提高航空旅行效率非常重視。我非常希望，在他的支持下，加上歐洲航空公司協會（A4E）的一致同意，我們將在未來一兩年內看到歐洲在排放交易體系（ETS）方面取得一些進展。

Neil, can you -- cost per passenger?

尼爾，你能提供一下每位乘客的成本嗎？

Yeah, sure. Connor, a couple of bits and pieces. Firstly, I would expect that air traffic control charges will go up again in January this year. The service is just so abysmal that they have to put it up again. I think you'll see some of that marketing spend. I talked about some timing in there. Some of that will catch up into Christmas and into the stimulation for the advertising ahead of the summer.

當然可以。康納，一些零碎的東西。首先，我預計今年1月空中交通管制費用將再次上漲。這項服務實在太糟糕了，他們不得不重新上線。我想你會看到一些行銷支出。我當時談到了一些時間安排的問題。其中一些影響會在聖誕節期間顯現，並刺激夏季前的廣告宣傳。

We're starting to see the Boeing compensation unwind. So that will have an impact on the maintenance line where some of those maintenance credits went. And then with the heavy maintenance at the back end of the year.

我們開始看到波音公司的賠償金逐步到位。因此，這將對部分維修積分的去向產生影響。然後，年底還有大量的維護工作。

Tracey also talked about we're going to start recruiting up on the cadets. That will kick off probably in the January time frame. So we'll be ramping up on the cadet side, but we'll also be ramping up as we always do ahead of the summer of 2026. So that tends to be back-ended costs in there, which is why I'm kind of been keeping the 1% to 3% unit cost inflation.

特蕾西也談到我們將開始招募學員。這件事大概會在一月啟動。因此，我們將加大學員方面的投入，同時也會像往常一樣，在 2026 年夏季到來之前加大投入。所以這往往是後端成本，這也是為什麼我一直將單位成本通膨率控制在 1% 到 3% 的原因。

Savanthi Syth, Raymond James.

薩萬蒂·西斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Just on the first one, another question on the unit cost. But given you have hedging in place for next year and clarity around the Boeing deliveries, I was wondering if you could provide any kind of early thoughts on how we should think about fiscal year '27 unit costs?

關於第一個問題，還有一個關於單位成本的問題。但鑑於您已為明年做好對沖準備，並且波音公司的交付情況也比較明朗，我想知道您能否就我們應該如何看待 2027 財年的單位成本提供一些初步想法？

And then maybe a second question, just on the debt side. Usually, airlines that even have kind of good balance sheets find some value in having debt and being involved in that side of the financial market. So kind of was curious is the zero debt view just ahead of kind of -- you do have the MAX CapEx -- MAX 10 CapEx, engine shop, other opportunities. So is that kind of a temporary zero debt view? Or do you have a different kind of philosophy on the debt side?

然後或許還有第二個問題，就債務方面而言。通常情況下，即使是資產負債表狀況還不錯的航空公司，也會發現負債並參與金融市場的這一方面具有一定的價值。所以，我有點好奇，零債務前景是否與——你們確實有 MAX CapEx——MAX 10 CapEx，引擎車間，其他機會。所以這是暫時的零債務政策嗎？或者，您在債務方面有不同的理念？

Yeah. Thanks, Savi. I mean, I think on the hedging, I mean, I'll ask Neil to come back in and correct me if I get something wrong here. It's too early yet. We haven't done the budgets for FY27. So I wouldn't get into unit costs at this stage other than we banked EUR650 million in fuel cost savings with the fuel hedging. So that's a good strong start.

是的。謝謝你，薩維。我的意思是，關於對沖問題，如果我說錯了什麼，我會請尼爾回來糾正我。現在還為時過早。我們還沒有編制2027財年的預算。因此，現階段我不會討論單位成本，除了我們透過燃料對沖節省了 6.5 億歐元的燃料成本之外。這是一個好的開始。

I think the two critical elements on the hedging is we've hedged 80% of FY27 fuel at just under $67 a barrel. We've made good progress on the currency hedging on OpEx. I'll ask John to come in -- John Norton to come in on where are we on the OpEx hedging for FY27?

我認為對沖的兩個關鍵要素是，我們已經對沖了 2027 財年 80% 的燃料，價格略低於每桶 67 美元。我們在營運支出貨幣對沖方面取得了良好進展。我會請約翰諾頓來談談我們 2027 財年的營運支出對沖情況。

Yeah. So we reached 80% of FY27 at a level of [1.50].

是的。因此，我們已完成 2027 財年 80% 的目標，達到…[1.50]

Where were we in the prior year?

去年我們進展到什麼程度了？

So [1.11] in the prior year.

所以上一年是 [1.11]。

Okay. So we've hedged away OpEx and a little bit of saving as well. And then clearly, it's not material in FY27, but we've started to hedge the fixed orders on the MAX 10. So the hedging is locked down. We have the 29 aircraft will be delivered by Boeing.

好的。因此，我們既規避了營運支出，也節省了一些成本。顯然，這在 2027 財政年度並不重要，但我們已經開始對 MAX 10 的固定訂單進行對沖。因此，對沖策略已被鎖定。我們有29架飛機將由波音公司交付。

And I think that's much more critical here into FY27. We have certainty now that we'll be able to deliver the headline traffic growth. And that's what drives ultimately the airfares and what drives the ancillary revenues.

我認為這在 2027 財年顯得特別重要。我們現在可以確定，我們能夠實現預期的流量成長目標。而這最終決定了機票價格和輔助收入的走勢。

On the debt side, we're in this kind of artificial period. We have this kind of two-year interregnum from '25 to '27, where in reality, we don't have a lot of CapEx. We could -- and we have -- we're coming up to -- in May next year, we have the [EUR1.2 million] bond. I mean, we raised that coming out of COVID at less than 1%. So the cost of refining that bond that currently would be somewhere close to or close to about 3%, which isn't -- it's not a lot of money, but we don't need it at the moment. And therefore, collectively as a Board, our view is we should demonstrate to the market that we can pay down these bonds.

在債務方面，我們正處於這種人為造成的時期。從 2025 年到 2027 年，我們有這樣兩年的過渡期，實際上，我們在這段時間內並沒有很多資本支出。我們能夠—而且我們已經—明年五月，我們將發行[120萬歐元]債券。我的意思是，我們在新冠疫情結束後，這個數字增加了不到 1%。因此，目前改進該債券的成本大約在 3% 左右，這並不是很多錢，但我們目前並不需要它。因此，董事會一致認為，我們應該向市場證明我們能夠償還這些債券。

When we start getting into '26 or '27, I think we would reserve the right to start. We would probably go back to the bond market as we get into the heavy CapEx again on the MAX 10. But we do so coming off with a strong balance sheet, BBB+ rated and say, look, we paid out back $4 billion worth of bonds post-COVID. And so I like -- we like the sense of we're not trying to be zero debt for some kind of bulls*** philosophical reasons. We would expect to be -- to raise debt as long as we can raise debt cheaply, but only when we move into a period of heavy CapEx, which is where we'll be in '28, '29, we only take 15 aircraft in '27, we get another 15 aircraft in '28, but then we move up towards closer to 50 aircraft in '29 and '30.

到了 2026 年或 2027 年，我認為我們會保留開始的權利。隨著 MAX 10 專案再次進入大規模資本支出階段，我們可能會重返債券市場。但我們這樣做是因為我們擁有強勁的資產負債表，BBB+ 評級，可以說，看，我們在新冠疫情後償還了價值 40 億美元的債券。所以我喜歡——我們喜歡這種感覺，我們並不是出於某種狗屁哲學原因而試圖實現零負債。我們預計會——只要能夠以低成本籌集債務，就會繼續籌集債務，但這只有在我們進入資本支出大幅增長的時期才會發生，而這正是我們在 2028 年和 2029 年將會經歷的時期。 2027 年我們只引進了 15 架飛機，2028 年又引進了 15 架，但到了 2029 年和 2030 年，我們的飛機數量將接近 50 架。

And so I would be of the view, you will see us pay down the last bond in May. We will try to build up gross cash of somewhere between EUR3 billion and EUR4 billion out of that. Other than that, we'll return the surplus cash to shareholders in dividends and buybacks. But then as we get into the heavier CapEx in '27, '28, '29, I think you'll see us go back to the bond market. Like there's nothing here. We have no principles here in terms of being -- having debt or being debt-free.

因此，我認為我們將在五月償還最後一筆債券。我們將努力從中累積30億至40億歐元的現金總額。除此之外，我們將以分紅和股票回購的形式將盈餘現金回饋給股東。但是，隨著 2027、2028、2029 年資本支出大幅增加，我認為我們將會重返債券市場。這裡好像什麼都沒有。我們這裡對於負債或無債一身輕沒有任何原則。

It's just because of this kind of slightly strange -- it's the first time in 30 years, we go through a kind of a two-year period with very little aircraft CapEx, pay down the debt, and then we can always refi again in '28, '29 from our position of strength. I don't know if you want to add anything on that on the debt.

正是因為這種略顯奇怪的情況——這是 30 年來我們第一次經歷長達兩年的飛機資本支出非常少的時期，償還了債務，然後我們總能憑藉我們的優勢地位在 2028 年、2029 年再次進行再融資。我不知道你是否想在債務方面增加任何內容。

Yeah, I'd agree with that, Michael. I mean, it's very much down to a cost decision at the moment. The cheapest way to fund ourselves is out of our own cash resources. And that's why we've decided to repay that bond out of our own cash. We've got nearly EUR1 billion in dry powder in the form of our undrawn revolving credit facility.

是的，我同意你的看法，邁克爾。我的意思是，目前這很大程度取決於成本考量。最經濟的籌資方式就是動用自己的現金資源。所以，我們決定用自己的資金來償還這筆債券。我們還有近 10 億歐元的可用資金，即我們尚未提取的循環信貸額度。

And as we've done in the past, we'll be opportunistic when we go back to the bond market. We'll go back at the time of our choosing and not just because there's a bond maturing and we have to roll it over. And I think that's how we will lock in the lowest cost ultimately long term for the group. So as Michael said, it's not just we have to be debt free. It's just it's going to fall that way for a period of time, and then we'll be back in the markets again.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，當我們重返債券市場時，我們將抓住機會。我們將選擇我們方便的時間回去，而不僅僅是因為有債券到期需要展期。我認為這樣才能最終為集團鎖定最低的長期成本。正如麥可所說，我們不僅要擺脫債務。只是這種情況會持續一段時間，然後我們就會重新回到市場。

And again, I would draw the point, as you look forward in terms of unit cost going forward FY27. You look at our competitor airlines across Europe, the so-called low-cost airlines, they have huge net debt on their balance sheet, aircraft leasing costs, financing costs. And those costs are rising into the -- for the next year or two. We will have 0 financing costs. We own 650 aircraft completely unencumbered.

我再次強調一點，展望2027財年，單位成本方面需要關注這一點。看看我們在歐洲的競爭對手航空公司，也就是所謂的廉價航空公司，它們的資產負債表上都有巨額淨債務、飛機租賃成本和融資成本。而且這些成本在未來一兩年內還會繼續上漲。我們將無需承擔任何融資成本。我們擁有650架完全沒有抵押的飛機。

And it is another point of difference between us and the competition. It's also one of the reasons why they need to get airfares up in the next year or two to as their financing costs are rising and they have a huge leasing obligations. And why I think our underlying airfares may well rise into '27 and '28, whereas our unit costs will be well under control.

這也是我們與競爭對手之間的另一個區別。這也是他們未來一兩年內需要提高機票價格的原因之一，因為他們的融資成本不斷上升，而且他們還有巨額的租賃義務。所以我認為，到 2027 年和 2028 年，我們的基本機票價格很可能會上漲，而我們的單位成本將得到很好的控制。

James Goodall, Redburn.

詹姆斯·古德爾，雷德伯恩。

I just got a couple of follow-ups. So firstly, just on the MAX 10 deliveries. Do you know how many deliveries to other airlines are in front of you in the queue? I mean, it looks like various airlines like United, Alaska, they've been pushing back some MAX 10 deliveries from '26 to '27. So I'm just trying to gauge the risk profile to you if the program gets pushed back any further, which I guess seems lower now given the deferrals from those airlines, but I would love your thoughts there.

我剛剛收到幾個後續問題。首先，就 MAX 10 的配送而言。你知道在你前面還有多少發往其他航空公司的貨物在排隊嗎？我的意思是，像美聯航、阿拉斯加航空這樣的多家航空公司似乎已經將部分 MAX 10 的交付時間從 2026 年推遲到 2027 年。所以，我只是想評估一下，如果該計劃進一步推遲，對您來說風險有多大。考慮到這些航空公司已經推遲了航班，我認為風險現在似乎降低了，但我很想聽聽您的看法。

And then secondly, just following up from your comments around forward bookings being up 1 point in Q3. Does that forward book load factor level differ between the peak and the shoulder periods in Q3? And I guess, what does the higher book load factor level mean for you in terms of pricing strategy in the late market?

其次，我想就您提到的第三季預訂量成長 1 個百分點的問題做個後續說明。第三季高峰期和淡季的預訂預訂率是否有差異？那麼，對於您而言，在接近開市時，較高的預訂率對您制定定價策略意味著什麼？

Okay. Thanks, James. Eddie will do the forward bookings. Let me touch on the MAX 10s. I mean, yes, one of the reasons why we're growing increasingly confident we'll get our first 15 deliveries in '27 is we are not delaying our MAX 10 orders.

好的。謝謝你，詹姆斯。艾迪將負責預訂事宜。讓我簡單談談MAX 10s。我的意思是，是的，我們越來越有信心在 2027 年完成首批 15 件交付的原因之一是，我們沒有推遲 MAX 10 的訂單。

United, who were the lead customer, I think, has delayed them. One stage they were talking about canceling the MAX 10s. We offered to step in and we take any MAX 10s they wanted to cancel. But it has helped, I think, Boeing to catch up with their production. I understand there's about two airlines in front of us.

我認為，作為主要客戶的聯合航空延誤了他們的訂單。他們一度討論過取消 MAX 10 的訂單。我們主動提出幫忙，並接受他們取消的任何最多 10 分鐘的訂單。但我認為這有助於波音公司趕上生產進度。據我了解，前面還有兩家航空公司。

I think WestJet is one, Alaska might be another who are still ahead of us in the queue. Their due deliveries in middle to late 2026. Not sure whether they'll get them or not around. I think there's a reasonable prospect that the lead customer is likely to get the first MAX 10 deliveries in probably Q3 or Q4 of '26. We have about 6 months of headroom there before we get our first aircraft.

我認為西捷航空算一個，阿拉斯加航空可能算一個，它們目前還在排隊等候。預計交貨時間為 2026 年中後期。不確定他們能不能弄到手。我認為，主要客戶很有可能在 2026 年第三季或第四季收到首批 MAX 10。在我們收到第一架飛機之前，我們還有大約 6 個月的緩衝時間。

And I would be reasonably confident we will take them. I don't think we'll be the lead operator. I don't think we'll get the first MAX 10 aircraft, but we might be second or third in the queue. And to those -- to my mind, it made no sense for United or some of those others to postpone the MAX 10s because you postpone them into the late 20s or early 30s, you're just paying a couple of more years of escalation. I would rather take the aircraft as quickly as I can get them.

我相當有信心我們會接受它們。我認為我們不會成為主導營運商。我覺得我們拿不到第一架MAX 10飛機，但我們可能會排在第二或第三位。在我看來，美聯航或其他一些航空公司推遲MAX 10的交付是沒有意義的，因為如果推遲到20年代末或30年代初，就相當於多支付幾年的價格上漲。我寧願盡快搭飛機。

We don't have escalate -- well, we have -- we built in our price -- the price is averaged over the lifetime of the deliveries between 2027 and 2034. I want those aircraft as soon as I can possibly get them. I would happily take an aircraft -- any aircraft that has 20% more seats and burns 20% less fuel, will be an economically much more efficient and an environmentally much more efficient aircraft to operate here in Europe. And I would take as many as I can get as soon as I can get them, which is why we stepped in when United stupidly announced that they wouldn't maybe take theirs. I said, well, we'll take anything that United wants to cancel.

我們沒有價格上漲——好吧，我們有——我們在價格中已經包含了價格——價格是2027年至2034年交付週期內的平均價格。我希望盡快拿到那些飛機。我非常樂意搭乘任何飛機——任何座位數增加 20%，燃油消耗減少 20% 的飛機，在歐洲運作都將是經濟效益更高、環境效益更好的飛機。我會盡可能多地接收，只要能接收就接收，這就是為什麼當美聯航愚蠢地宣布他們可能不會接收他們的貨物時，我們介入的原因。我說，好吧，只要美聯航取消的航班，我們都願意接。

They finished up not canceling and just postponing. I think we're about third or fourth in the queue, but it will be a reasonably short queue. I think the first deliveries will take place in Q3 or Q4 of '26 and our first 15 are in the spring of '27. Eddie, do you want to talk about forward bookings through November, December, maybe into Q4?

他們最後沒有取消，只是延期了。我想我們大概排在隊伍的第三或第四位，但隊伍應該不會太長。我認為首批交付將在 2026 年第三季或第四季進行，我們的首批 15 台將於 2027 年春季交付。艾迪，你想談談11月、12月，甚至可能到第四季的預訂情況嗎？

Yeah. I mean, in Q4, we're only about 10% booked, so very little for Q4, so very little visibility there. If you look forward to, say, November has required some price stimulation, but we're happy with load factors. If you look in December and January, I mean, we've learned as well from previous years in terms of trimming our schedules as well there, particularly as we get into the -- beyond the first 10 days of January and also doing some trimming around the early December as well.

是的。我的意思是，第四季我們的預訂率只有10%左右，所以第四季的預訂量非常少，因此很難預測。展望未來，比如說，11 月可能需要一些價格刺激措施，但我們對目前的客座率感到滿意。如果你看看 12 月和 1 月，我的意思是，我們也從往年的經驗中吸取了教訓，在縮減日程安排方面也做出了調整，尤其是在 1 月的前 10 天之後，以及 12 月初也進行了一些縮減。

So look, we're about 76%, 77% booked for November. Like our bookings are ahead of where they're marginally ahead of where they've been for each of those months, both November -- like November, December, and January, comfortable with what we're seeing, but November is the one that needed a little bit of needed price stimulation to get there. But looking, we don't have to dig too deep, but we're ahead. And so we're happy, but you do have limited visibility. And like really like with 10% of bookings for Q4, you have no real visibility whatsoever.

你看，我們11月份的預訂率大概是76%到77%。就像我們的預訂量比過去幾個月略有增長一樣，11 月份的預訂量——就像 11 月、12 月和 1 月一樣，我們對目前的情況感到滿意，但 11 月份的預訂量需要一些必要的價格刺激才能達到目前的水平。但仔細觀察，我們不必深入挖掘，就已經領先一步了。所以我們很高興，但你的視野確實有限。例如，第四季只有 10% 的預訂量，你根本無法真正了解情況。

Muneeba Kayani, Bank of America.

Muneeba Kayani，美國銀行。

I just wanted to follow up on your outlook for the fourth quarter. Why are you saying there's no Easter benefit because there is the earlier Easter and a couple of days will fall into the end of that. So just wanted to understand your thinking around kind of the base effects into the fourth quarter.

我只是想跟進一下您對第四季度的展望。為什麼你說沒有復活節的好處呢？因為復活節比較早，而且還有幾天時間會落在復活節假期的最後。所以我想了解一下您對第四季基本面影響的看法。

And then just on EU ETS, what sort of increase should we be expecting in fiscal '27? Because it looks like hedging levels on that are just 11% right now and the prices have gone up. So how much of those fuel savings could be offset by the ETS costs going up? Thank you.

那麼就歐盟碳排放交易體係而言，我們應該預期 2027 財年會有什麼樣的成長呢？因為目前看來，該標的資產的對沖水準只有 11%，而價格卻上漲了。那麼，這些燃料節省的費用有多少會被碳排放交易體系成本的上漲所抵銷呢？謝謝。

Okay. I'll ask Thomas Fowler, who's the Director of Sustainability, maybe take the ETS question for you, Muneeba. Let me deal with the outlook. I mean, yes, Easter Sunday next year is on the 5th of April. So the first weekend of the school holidays will fall into the last weekend in March. But it's not significant. We will get a little bit of a bump.

好的。我會請永續發展總監托馬斯·福勒幫你回答有關 ETS 的問題，穆尼巴。讓我來處理前景問題。我的意思是，是的，明年的復活節星期日是4月5日。因此，學校假期的第一個週末將落在三月的最後一個週末。但這並不重要。我們會稍微漲一點價。

But I think at this point, we're better off just to say, look, there will be no Easter benefit in Q4. If we get a little bit in the last two days of March, great. But really, most of it will flow into April. It's really only when you get an Easter on the end of the 31st of March or 1st of April, you see the first -- as we did two years ago, the first half of Easter was in the prior year Q4.

但我認為，目前我們最好還是直接說，第四季不會有復活節福利。如果三月最後兩天能下點雪，那就太好了。但實際上，大部分降水都會集中在四月。只有當復活節恰逢 3 月 31 日或 4 月 1 日時，你才會看到第一個——就像我們兩年前那樣，復活節的前半部分在前一年的第四季。

Almost all of the impact of Easter next year will be in Q1. There will be a couple of days in March. And if we get a little bit of a benefit out of that well and good, but there's certainly no point in going out now, we have two days of Easter in March next year, what can you do? We bug all visibility in Q4, and we won't have any until we get out to the Q3 numbers in February.

明年復活節的影響幾乎全部將在第一季顯現。三月會有幾天時間。如果能從中獲得一點好處當然很好，但現在出去肯定沒有意義了，明年三月還有兩天復活節，又能怎麼辦呢？第四季度所有可見性都將受到影響，直到二月公佈第三季數據之前，我們將沒有任何可見性。

And we -- that's all we're trying to communicate now, Muneeba. And now I'll turn to optimistic Tom for the ETS outlook for FY27, and you won't touch on '28 yet, unless we [hear] from Ursula von der Leyen in between now and then.

而我們——這就是我們現在想要傳達的全部訊息，穆尼巴。現在，我將聽聽樂觀的湯姆對 2027 財年 ETS 的展望，至於 2028 年，除非我們在此期間聽到烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩的消息，否則你暫時不會談到 2028 年。

I think Neil alluded at the call (inaudible) outlook. We think the ETS and SAF costs go from EUR1.1 billion this year to somewhere between EUR1.4 billion and EUR1.5 billion next year, depending on the outturn of where the pricing is. Obviously, it is higher. Prices are higher going into next year, and we have to unwind the final loss of the free allowances. So somewhere between EUR1.4 billion, EUR1.5 billion for FY27.

我認為尼爾在電話會議中暗示了（聽不清楚）前景。我們認為，ETS 和 SAF 的成本將從今年的 11 億歐元增加到明年的 14 億歐元至 15 億歐元之間，具體取決於定價結果。顯然，它更高。明年物價上漲，而且我們還要彌補免費配額的最終損失。因此，2027 財年預算將在 14 億歐元至 15 億歐元之間。

Thomas, is it worth pointing out that's the last big step-up as well that we're going to have?

湯瑪斯，值得一提的是，這也是我們將要經歷的最後一個重大飛躍嗎？

Well, the last step of velocity allowance is, obviously, fair pricing changes, Neil, yes, like we hopefully won't see step up at that level the following year until mandates increase on staff in 2030. We do see the mandates grow a bit in the UK literally to 2030. But obviously, given it's only -- it's a portion of our business, we don't get the full impact of that through the line.

嗯，速度補貼的最後一步顯然是公平定價的變化，尼爾，是的，就像我們希望在2030年之前不會看到員工的強制性要求增加之前，第二年不會看到價格上漲到那個水平一樣。我們看到，英國的強制規定確實會持續成長到 2030 年。但顯然，鑑於這只是我們業務的一部分，我們無法透過這條生產線獲得全部的影響。

And again, sorry, and it calls into question. If Europe is serious about being competitive, this bulls*** tax needs to be rolled back. We need to bring it in line with CORSIA. And it's one of the reasons this unwinding of the free ETSs while Lufthansa, Air France, IAG are now much more vocal about the need to have a fair and level playing field on environmental taxes in Europe. We can't just be taxing ourselves to debt in Europe and exempting the Americans, the Gulf, the Asians and everybody else.

再次抱歉，這令人質疑。如果歐洲真的想保持競爭力，就必須取消這項毫無意義的稅。我們需要使其符合 CORSIA 標準。這也是導致自由排放交易體系逐步取消的原因之一，而漢莎航空、法國航空和國際航空集團現在更加積極地呼籲在歐洲的環境稅方面建立一個公平公正的競爭環境。我們不能一邊在歐洲徵收重稅導致負債累累，一邊卻豁免美國、海灣國家、亞洲國家和其他所有國家。

It's simply insane only the Europeans would sign something that stupid and self-defeating. And therefore, I think the more we can -- the more and louder we campaign, the more likely we are to see some progressive reforms and pushing back on this bulls***.

簡直太瘋狂了，只有歐洲人才會簽署如此愚蠢且自取滅亡的東西。因此，我認為我們越努力——我們越積極、越大聲地進行宣傳活動，就越有可能看到一些進步的改革，並抵制這種胡說八道。

Ruairi Cullinane, Research RBC Capital Markets.

Ruairi Cullinane，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場研究部。

Yeah, first question, a follow-up on the previous one. So it sounds like you're not focusing lobbying efforts on sustainable aviation fuel mandates. Would you like to see any changes there to rules in the UK or EU? And then I wondered if you'd be willing to comment on whether the UK has diverged at all from the Q2 fare trends you've reported or 3Q booking trends? Thank you.

是的，第一個問題是上一個問題的後續。聽起來你們並沒有把遊說重點放在永續航空燃料強制使用。您希望英國或歐盟的相關規則有任何變更嗎？然後我想問一下，您是否願意就英國的票價趨勢是否與您報告的第二季票價趨勢或第三季預訂趨勢有任何偏差發表評論？謝謝。

Sorry, Ruairi. Just speak up, you're very faint there on the -- I got the first half with the SAF. What's the second question?

抱歉，魯艾里。大聲一點，你聲音很輕——我跟SAF聊了前半部。第二個問題是什麼？

Yeah, the second question on the UK. Has the UK diverged at all from the Q2 fare trends you've reported or Q3 booking trends that you've seen across the group? Thank you.

是的，第二個問題是關於英國的。英國的票價趨勢是否與您報告的第二季票價趨勢或集團內第三季的預訂趨勢有所不同？謝謝。

Okay. Look, SAF, I'm not a believer -- sorry, I'm a believer in SAF, but I mean, there is simply -- the volumes will not be there to meet the EU 6% mandate by 2030 or the UK's insane 10% mandate. You have the oil majors at the moment going back from the production of SAFs under pressure in the White House. I think the -- I think I join and I support the call of all the A4E airlines in Europe. We need to move these mandates to the right -- we may get to 6% or 10% by 2035, but I think there's no prospect of getting there in 2030.

好的。聽著，SAF，我不是信徒——抱歉，我是SAF的信徒，但我的意思是，事實就是——產量不足以滿足歐盟到2030年6%的強制性要求，或者英國瘋狂的10%的強制性要求。目前，由於白宮施加壓力，各大石油公司正在停止生產永續航空燃料（SAF）。我認為－我認為我加入並支持歐洲所有A4E航空公司的呼籲。我們需要將這些強制規定向右調整——到 2035 年我們或許能達到 6% 或 10%，但我認為 2030 年是不可能達到的。

And I would be surprised even if the oil majors don't produce the SAF, there's nothing we can do to supply it. These are just another example of European -- British and European lack of competitiveness. The environmental agenda, there's a war in Ukraine, Trump in the White House. There is no, I think -- what is the word, there is no significant where -- if anything, the whole environmental agenda is moving backwards. We need competitiveness in Europe.

即使石油巨頭不生產SAF，我也會感到驚訝，因為我們無能為力，無法供應SAF。這再次體現了歐洲——尤其是英國和歐洲——缺乏競爭力的問題。環境議題、烏克蘭戰爭、川普入主白宮。我認為，沒有——該怎麼說呢，沒有顯著的——如果說有什麼變化的話，那就是整個環境議程正在倒退。我們需要在歐洲保持競爭力。

And if the Swedes who were the home of the original environmental tax and flight shaming and all, if they worked out that Greta was wrong and they're abolishing their environmental tax, then surely the rest of the dodos in Europe will do likewise. So I think there is, I think, very little prospect of those SAF mandates being met in 2030. I don't think as an industry, we should abandon SAF, but we do need a much more either Europe and European governments should use some of the environmental taxation, this astonishing the SAF or the ETS taxation to incentivize the production of SAF or move the SAF mandates to the right or further out into 2030. There's nothing we see divergent in the UK.

如果瑞典人——環境稅和飛行羞辱等政策的發源地——都意識到格蕾塔錯了，並廢除了環境稅，那麼歐洲其他那些愚昧無知的國家肯定也會效仿。所以我認為，到 2030 年實現新加坡武裝部隊的這些任務目標的可能性非常小。我認為作為一個行業，我們不應該放棄可持續航空燃料（SAF），但我們確實需要歐洲和歐洲各國政府更多地利用一些環境稅收，例如 SAF 或碳排放交易體系（ETS）的稅收，來激勵 SAF 的生產，或者將 SAF 的強制實施期限向右或向後推遲到 2030 年。我們在英國並沒有看到任何不同之處。

Sorry, I'll let that to Eddie. Eddie wants to answer that question. UK, Q3, fares and --

抱歉，這事我交給艾迪處理吧。艾迪想回答這個問題。英國，第三季度，票價和--

I mean, as I said, like in November, required price stimulation. And even though -- if you look at UK leisure, UK leisure for us is about a third of all of our seats out of the UK, like where we've got -- you do see some price pressure there. But just in November, a lot of capacity has gone in there in the market.

我的意思是，就像我之前說的，就像11月一樣，需要價格刺激。即使——如果你看看英國休閒旅遊，英國休閒旅遊對我們而言大約占我們所有英國出發航班座位數的三分之一，就像我們目前的情況一樣——你確實會看到一些價格壓力。但僅在11月份，市場上就湧入了大量產能。

I think it's causing a lot more pressure for our competitors. It's a very small part of it. If you look at the rest of the UK, our city to city, our ethnic traffic to the UK and Ireland and all that, that's in line with the rest of the network. That's only a slight call out there in terms of UK leisure, I would say. And a lot of it would be focused in the region, a lot of capacity within post-COVID. Some of that went to our competitors' way in terms of holidays last year. I think they're feeling more of the pain, but we're getting to those factors.

我認為這給我們的競爭對手帶來了更大的壓力。這只是其中很小的一部分。如果你看看英國其他地區，看看我們城市之間的交通，看看我們往返英國和愛爾蘭的少數族裔交通等等，你會發現這與網路的其他部分是一致的。就英國休閒娛樂而言，我認為這只是略微提振了市場。而且許多資源將集中在該地區，許多產能將在新冠疫情後得到提升。去年，我們的一些競爭對手在假期方面佔了上風。我認為他們感受到的痛苦更多，但我們正在逐步了解這些因素。

But are you seeing any divergence in UK traffic in (inaudible) compared to non-UK or EU traffic in (inaudible).

但是，您是否觀察到英國境內的交通流量（聽不清楚）與非英國或歐盟境內的交通流量有任何差異？（聽不清楚）

I mean, the only call that I would have is some of the UK leisure in November. And it's a very small part of our business, and the rest of the UK is as robust as the rest of the network Europe.

我的意思是，我唯一想打的電話就是11月份英國的一些休閒活動。而且這只是我們業務的一小部分，英國其他地區的業務與歐洲其他地區的業務一樣穩健。

Okay. Ruairi, does that answer the question?

好的。魯艾里，這樣回答你的問題了嗎？

Yeah. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Good. Okay. Any other questions, Nadia?

好的。好的。還有其他問題嗎，娜迪亞？

We currently have no questions.

我們目前沒有問題。

Okay. Listen, folks, thank you very much. I think we've done, what, 1 hour and 25 minutes. We appreciate your time on the call. We have extensive roadshows on the road, Ireland, UK, Europe, North America for the remainder of this week. If you'd like a meeting on a one-on-one, please contact us either through Jamie here, our Head of IR or through the Citi, Davy, Goodbody.

好的。各位，非常感謝。我想我們已經完成了，大概1小時25分鐘吧。感謝您抽空接聽電話。本週剩餘時間，我們將在愛爾蘭、英國、歐洲和北美等地進行大規模的巡迴演出。如果您想與我們進行一對一的會面，請透過我們的投資者關係主管 Jamie 或花旗銀行 Davy Goodbody 與我們聯繫。

Thanks to Citi, Davy, and Goodbody for arranging and facilitating the roadshow, and we look forward to meeting you all at some stage over the remainder of this week. If anybody wants to come visit us in Dublin after that, please feel free. As long as you fly Ryanair, we'll be happy to meet you. And otherwise, I think we are reasonably cautiously optimistic on the outlook, if not for the next 12 months, but I think for the next four or five years, keep focusing on the fundamentals.

感謝花旗銀行、Davy 和 Goodbody 安排和促成這場路演，我們期待在本週剩餘的時間與大家見面。之後如果有人想來都柏林拜訪我們，請隨時來。只要你搭乘瑞安航空，我們就很樂意見到你。除此之外，我認為我們對前景持較為謹慎樂觀的態度，即便不是對未來 12 個月，但我認為在未來四到五年內，我們仍應繼續關注基本面。

Capacity is going to remain constrained in Europe. We are doing much better deals with airports across Europe. Governments select -- are increasingly reversing these environmental taxes. And therefore, I think there's a reasonable -- I'd be reasonably cautious that we're going to see controlled growth certainly to 250 million passengers by 2030, 300 million passengers by 2034. And there's a prospect, plus or minus the occasional unforeseen event that profit -- net profit per passenger will over that period of time, although lumpily move from EUR10 towards EUR12 towards EUR14 per passenger.

歐洲的運力將繼續受到限制。我們與歐洲各地的機場達成了更優惠的協議。各國政府正逐步取消這些環境稅。因此，我認為有理由——我比較謹慎地認為，到 2030 年，客運量肯定會控制在 2.5 億人次，到 2034 年達到 3 億人次。而且，儘管偶爾會出現一些不可預見的事件，但利潤（每位乘客的淨利潤）預計將在這段時間內從每位乘客 10 歐元增長到 12 歐元，再增長到 14 歐元。

And we hope you'll all join us for the ride and see where it goes over the next four or five years. Thank you for your time. Look forward to being here this week, and thank you very much. We'll wrap it up there, Nadia, please. Thank you.

我們希望大家都能加入我們，一起見證未來四、五年的發展歷程。感謝您抽出時間。期待本週能來到這裡，非常感謝。娜迪亞，我們就到此為止。謝謝。