使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the RXO first quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Ellie, and I will be your operator for todayâs call. Please note that this call is being recorded.
歡迎收聽 RXO 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。我是 Ellie,將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。請注意,本次電話會議將被錄音。
During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, which by their nature involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the companyâs SEC filings as well as in its earnings release.
在本次電話會議中,公司將在聯邦證券法的意義下作出若干前瞻性陳述;此類陳述本質上涉及多項風險、不確定性及其他因素,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異之因素的討論,載於公司向 SEC 提交的文件以及其財報新聞稿中。
You should refer to a copy of the companyâs earnings release in the Investors Relations section on the companyâs website for additional important information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that the company uses when discussing its results.
關於前瞻性陳述以及公司在討論業績時所使用之非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的揭露與調節(reconciliations)等其他重要資訊,請參閱公司網站「投資人關係」專區中的財報新聞稿副本。
I will now turn the call over to Drew Wilkerson. Mr. Wilkerson, you may now begin.
我現在把電話會議交給 Drew Wilkerson。Wilkerson 先生,您現在可以開始。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today. With me here in Charlotte are RXOâs Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Harris; and Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld. There are four main points I want to convey this morning.
各位早安。感謝各位今天加入。我在夏洛特與我一同出席的有 RXO 財務長 Jamie Harris,以及策略長 Jared Weisfeld。今天早上我想傳達四個重點。
First, weâre seeing clear signs of improvement in the freight market, primarily driven by supply-side tightening despite overall soft demand, typical seasonality, and severe weather in the first quarter. Second, we have significant momentum within the business. Our brokersâ full truckload volume improved every month as the first quarter progressed.
第一,我們看到貨運市場出現明確改善跡象,主要由供給端收緊所帶動,儘管整體需求仍偏疲弱、存在典型季節性因素,且第一季遭遇惡劣天候。第二,我們的業務動能顯著。隨著第一季推進,我們經紀業務的整車(FTL)運量每個月都有改善。
Additionally, our spot mix increased by 500 basis points sequentially in the first quarter, resulting in a strong gross profit per load improvement. Spot mix also increased in April. Third, we continue to secure major customer wins. In brokerage, weâre converting our significantly larger sales pipeline.
此外,我們第一季的現貨占比(spot mix)較前一季提高 500 個基點,帶動每載次毛利(gross profit per load)大幅改善。4 月現貨占比也持續上升。第三,我們持續拿下大型客戶的重大得標。在經紀業務方面,我們正在轉化規模顯著更大的銷售管線。
In managed transportation, we were awarded more than $100 million in freight under management in the first quarter, and our late-stage sales pipeline increased by more than $200 million. We also saw traction with our new Middle Mile Solutions offering.
在管理式運輸(managed transportation)方面,我們第一季獲得超過 1 億美元的受管理貨運(freight under management)授予,且後期(late-stage)銷售管線增加超過 2 億美元。我們也看到新推出的 Middle Mile Solutions 產品開始取得進展。
Lastly, weâve accelerated our deployment of agentic AI, which is driving significant improvements in volume, margin, productivity, and service. Iâll start with an update on the freight market. We believe a supply-driven recovery is taking shape. Capacity continues to exit the market, a trend that began to accelerate late last year due to regulatory changes and enforcement. We have even more conviction that these capacity reductions are structural in nature. In addition to improving the overall safety of the industry, as well as helping to combat theft and fraud, this has set the market up for a multi-year recovery when demand improves.
最後,我們加速部署代理式 AI(agentic AI),正推動運量、毛利率、生產力與服務水準的顯著提升。我先就貨運市場做最新說明。我們認為,一個由供給驅動的復甦正在成形。運能持續退出市場;由於法規變更與執法加強,這一趨勢自去年年底開始加速。我們更有信心認為,這些運能縮減具有結構性特徵。除了提升整體產業安全、並有助於打擊竊盜與詐欺之外,當需求回升時,這也為市場奠定多年的復甦基礎。
For now, demand remains soft. Our customers are still managing through macroeconomic uncertainty. We have yet to see a sustained increase in the demand for goods. Shippers are becoming increasingly selective about who they work with and are choosing proven scale brokers like RXO.
目前需求仍偏疲弱。我們的客戶仍在因應總體經濟不確定性。我們尚未看到商品需求出現持續性的增加。託運人對合作對象的選擇愈發嚴格,並傾向選擇像 RXO 這樣具備規模且經驗證的經紀商。
In the first quarter, we were recognized with Carrier of the Year awards from Heineken USA, Graphic Packaging, and Rise Baking. Our customers value our exceptional service, our robust and rigorous carrier vetting process, and our financial stability. These are the hallmarks of the RXO brand. Theyâre why about half of the Fortune 500 entrust us with their freight. With that as a backdrop, we launched what has so far been a very successful strategy for this yearâs bid season. As we said previously, weâve been working with customers to optimize service, volume, and price.
第一季,我們獲得 Heineken USA、Graphic Packaging 與 Rise Baking 頒發的「年度承運商」獎項。客戶重視我們卓越的服務、健全且嚴謹的承運商審核流程,以及財務穩健性。這些都是 RXO 品牌的核心特徵。也正因如此,約有一半的《財富》500 大企業將其貨運託付給我們。在此背景下,我們啟動了今年投標季(bid season)迄今非常成功的策略。如同我們先前所說,我們一直與客戶合作,以最佳化服務、運量與價格。
On average, through bid season, contract renewal rates, excluding the impact of fuel, are up mid-to-high single digits. These new rates began phasing in in late Q1 and will continue to go into effect throughout the second quarter, helping to improve the profitability of our contractual book of business. When you take a closer look at contract business that has been awarded to RXO over the last month, rates have increased on average by low double-digit percentage.
整體而言,在投標季期間,排除燃油影響後的合約續約費率平均上升中到高個位數百分比。這些新費率自第一季末開始逐步導入,並將在第二季持續生效,有助於提升我們合約業務組合的獲利能力。若更仔細觀察過去一個月授予 RXO 的合約業務,費率平均上升低雙位數百分比。
As a result, we now expect that our full year 2026 contract rates will increase by high single digits. Our prior expectation was for low-to-mid single-digit growth. Weâre servicing our customers freight throughout all phases of the market cycle, and thatâs translating to real business momentum. Historically, weâve had about a 40% win rate on our brokerage late-stage pipeline.
因此,我們目前預期 2026 全年合約費率將上升高個位數百分比。我們先前的預期為低到中個位數百分比成長。我們在市場循環的各個階段都為客戶提供貨運服務,而這正轉化為實質的業務動能。歷史上,我們在經紀業務後期銷售管線的得標率約為 40%。
Last quarter, we highlighted that the pipeline was up more than 50% year over year. Iâm happy to report that we held our win rate at about 40% in the quarter, even though the pipeline was significantly larger than itâs been historically.
上一季我們提到,該管線年增超過 50%。我很高興報告,本季我們仍將得標率維持在約 40%,即使管線規模顯著大於以往的歷史水準。
Letâs discuss our first quarter. In brokerage, overall volume declined by 8% year over year. Less than truckload volume growth of 5% was more than offset by a 12% decline in truckload volume. Volume trends are improving, however. Our success in converting our brokerage sales pipeline opportunities and improving our spot mix has resulted in full truckload volume that improved every month throughout the quarter. Another encouraging data point is that weâve achieved a significant increase in our brokerage spot mix over the last few months.
接著談談我們第一季表現。在經紀業務方面,整體運量年減 8%。零擔(LTL)運量成長 5%,但被整車(FTL)運量下滑 12% 以上所抵銷。不過,運量趨勢正在改善。我們成功轉化經紀業務銷售管線機會並提升現貨占比,使整車運量在本季每個月都逐步改善。另一個令人鼓舞的數據是,過去幾個月我們的經紀現貨占比顯著提高。
Our spot mix increased by 500 basis points sequentially, which directly contributed to an improvement in gross profit per load. Spot volume increased as a percentage of the truckload mix every month in the first quarter and increased again in April. This is the power of the RXO model.
我們的現貨占比較前一季提高 500 個基點,直接促成每載次毛利的改善。第一季中,現貨運量占整車組合的比例每個月都上升,並在 4 月再度提高。這正是 RXO 模式的威力。
Our focus on providing exceptional service and deep customer relationships through all parts of the freight cycle is enabling us to win spots, projects, and mini bids now that capacity is tight. You can see the results in the rapid increase in our spot mix and gross profit per load in the first quarter.
我們專注於在貨運循環各階段提供卓越服務並建立深厚客戶關係,使我們在運能吃緊之際得以贏得現貨、專案與小型投標(mini bids)。你可以從第一季現貨占比與每載次毛利的快速提升中看到成果。
In complementary services, managed transportation continues to win. We were awarded more than $100 million in freight under management in the first quarter. These wins are significant because they result in an increased synergy loads for RXOâs other lines of business.
在互補性服務方面,管理式運輸持續勝出。我們第一季獲得超過 1 億美元的受管理貨運授予。這些得標意義重大,因為它們會為 RXO 其他業務線帶來更多協同載次(synergy loads)。
Our late-stage sales pipeline is extremely robust and increased by more than $200 million sequentially. This pipeline is composed of high-quality new names and long-tenured existing enterprise customers with whom weâve built successful, deep relationships. Weâre also very excited about the early traction of our Middle Mile Solutions offering, which leverages our network of carriers and RXO hubs to integrate first, middle, and last-mile logistics into a single comprehensive network.
我們的後期銷售管線極為強勁,較前一季增加超過 2 億美元。該管線由高品質的新客戶名稱,以及與我們建立成功且深厚關係、合作年資長的既有企業客戶所構成。我們也對 Middle Mile Solutions 產品的早期進展感到非常振奮;該產品運用我們的承運商網路與 RXO 樞紐(hubs),將第一哩、中段與最後一哩物流整合為單一、全面性的網路。
The new service eliminates the need for multiple vendors and provides consistent visibility and control, creating stickiness with our customers. We launched this solution in February, our sales pipeline is already more than $70 million. Weâve secured more than $20 million in wins. Shippers continue to choose RXO because we help them solve complex logistics challenges with unique high-tech solutions that leverage our scale and infrastructure.
這項新服務消除了需要多家供應商的需求,並提供一致的可視性與控管能力,進一步提升我們與客戶之間的黏著度。我們在2月推出此解決方案,目前我們的銷售管線已超過7,000萬美元。我們已取得超過2,000萬美元的得標成果。托運人持續選擇RXO,因為我們透過運用規模與基礎設施的獨特高科技解決方案,協助他們解決複雜的物流挑戰。
While last mile stops declined by 8%, in part due to the impact of severe weather, weâre seeing more positive trends within last mile to start the second quarter. RXO remains the provider of choice for the best-known brands in the big and bulky space. Our exceptional service and massive scale in last mile continue to enable us to gain profitable market share.
雖然最後一哩路的停靠點數下降了8%,部分原因是惡劣天氣的影響,但我們看到最後一哩路業務在第二季初出現更正面的趨勢。RXO仍是大型與笨重品類領域中最知名品牌的首選供應商。我們在最後一哩路的卓越服務與龐大規模,持續使我們得以取得具獲利性的市占率提升。
Overall, RXOâs EBITDA was $6 million in the quarter at the low end of the range we provided to you due to severe weather, which impacted our deliveries in last mile. In the second quarter, we expect our EBITDA to increase significantly, driven by stronger volume across the business and a more favorable spot mix and higher contract rates in brokerage.
整體而言,RXO本季EBITDA為600萬美元,落在我們先前提供區間的低端,原因是惡劣天氣影響了我們最後一哩路的配送。在第二季,我們預期EBITDA將顯著增加,主要受惠於全公司更強勁的運量,以及經紀業務中更有利的即期組合與更高的合約費率。
We expect brokerage volume to be about flat year over year in the second quarter and truckload volume to resume its outperformance first of the market as early as the middle of the year. Jamie and Jared will talk more about our outlook in detail later in the call.
我們預期第二季經紀業務運量將與去年同期大致持平,而整車運量最早可在年中恢復其領先市場的表現。Jamie與Jared稍後將在電話會議中更詳細說明我們的展望。
Turning to technology. In the first quarter, we made significant progress on our roadmap, especially when it comes to putting AI into action. The systems integration we completed last year have enabled us to move faster to build and launch smart AI tools that tap into RXOâs decades worth of data. Everything our technology team is currently working on is centered around moving beyond basic, repetitive tasks and towards smart, proactive decision-making. We have many examples of how our efforts are already driving real results across the company, and Iâd like to share an exciting one.
接著談科技。第一季我們在路線圖上取得重大進展,尤其是在將AI付諸實行方面。我們去年完成的系統整合,使我們能更快速地建置並推出智慧AI工具,運用RXO累積數十年的資料。我們技術團隊目前所做的一切,皆以超越基礎、重複性工作,並邁向智慧、主動式決策為核心。我們有許多例子顯示這些努力已在公司各處帶來實質成果,我想分享一個令人振奮的案例。
Late in the quarter, we rolled out an important part of our tech roadmap, an AI spot agent in repsâ inboxes that adds to our already best-in-class quoting capabilities. While itâs still in the very early days, the initial results are promising. Reps that have adopted the tool early are seeing an increase in volume and gross profit per load when compared to the rest of the brokerage organization. We expect the broader organization to be fully ramped up on the tool over the next few quarters.
在本季後段,我們推出了技術路線圖中的重要一環:在業務代表的收件匣中導入AI即期代理,進一步強化我們已屬同業最佳的報價能力。雖然仍處於非常早期階段,但初步結果令人鼓舞。較早採用該工具的業務代表,相較於經紀組織其他人員,運量與每趟載運的毛利皆有所提升。我們預期在接下來幾季內,整個組織將全面完成該工具的導入與擴大使用。
As we continue to mature our capabilities, we remain committed to getting these types of powerful tools into more hands. Weâre focused on multiplying the impact technology brings to every function within our company to improve volume, margin, productivity, and service.
隨著我們持續成熟自身能力,我們仍致力於讓更多人能使用這類強大的工具。我們專注於放大科技為公司各項職能帶來的影響,以提升運量、毛利率、生產力與服務水準。
In summary, RXO has a unique algorithm for long-term success. Larger scale, focus on profitable growth, investments in technology, long-term cash generation, and a slimmer cost structure. This is the point in the cycle that really begins to show the power of the RXO model. Weâve remained focused on providing exceptional service, comprehensive solutions, continuous innovation, and deep customer relationships. All of that is enabling us to win spot, project, and mini bid business as the market recovers. Weâre in the early innings of what we believe will be a sustained, robust recovery. RXO is well-positioned to be a major winner.
總結來說,RXO擁有一套獨特的長期成功演算法。更大的規模、聚焦獲利性成長、投資科技、長期現金創造能力,以及更精簡的成本結構。在景氣循環的這個階段,正是開始真正展現RXO模式威力的時點。我們始終專注於提供卓越服務、全面解決方案、持續創新,以及深厚的客戶關係。這些都使我們在市場復甦之際,能贏得即期、專案與小型招標業務。我們正處於我們相信將是持續且強勁復甦的早期階段。RXO已做好準備,成為主要贏家。
Now, Jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail. Jamie?
接下來,Jamie將更詳細說明我們的財務結果。Jamie?
James Harris - Chief Financial Officer
James Harris - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Drew, and good morning. Letâs review our first quarter performance in more detail. For the quarter, we reported $1.4 billion in total revenue, gross margin of 14.2%, and adjusted EBITDA of $6 million. Gross margin and adjusted EBITDA were negatively impacted by severe weather conditions in the quarter. There was an approximate $3 million impact, mostly in our last mile business.
謝謝你,Drew,大家早安。讓我們更詳細檢視第一季的表現。本季我們報告總營收14億美元,毛利率14.2%,調整後EBITDA為600萬美元。本季毛利率與調整後EBITDA受到惡劣天氣條件的負面影響。影響約為300萬美元,主要發生在我們的最後一哩路業務。
Our interest expense in the quarter was $9 million, and our adjusted loss per share was $0.09. You can find a bridge to adjusted EPS on slide 7 of the earnings presentation. Youâll note that we had an $11 million debt extinguishment loss as a result of refinancing our 2027 senior notes. Iâll talk more about this in our capital structure later. Turning to our lines of business.
本季利息費用為900萬美元,調整後每股虧損為0.09美元。您可在財報簡報第7頁找到調整後EPS的調節表。您會注意到,因我們為2027年期優先票據進行再融資,產生了1,100萬美元的債務清償損失。我稍後在資本結構部分會再多談。接著看我們各業務線。
Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion, up 3% year over year, and with 74% of our total revenue. The year-over-year revenue growth was driven by increased freight rates, increased truckload length of haul, and higher fuel prices. We also captured more spot opportunities in the quarter, with our spot mix increasing sequentially by 500 basis points, which was also accretive to revenue.
經紀業務營收為11億美元,年增3%,占我們總營收的74%。年對年營收成長主要由運費費率上升、整車平均運距增加,以及燃油價格上漲所帶動。本季我們也掌握了更多即期機會,即期占比環比提升500個基點,亦對營收具增益效果。
Cost of transportation increased in the quarter due to a continued tightening of the full truckload market, driven largely by regulatory enforcement and higher fuel prices. These factors contributed to brokerage gross margin of 11.4% towards the low end of our outlook. Brokerage gross margin declined 50 basis points sequentially, driven by increased truckload length of haul and fuel prices.
本季運輸成本上升,原因是整車市場持續收緊,主要受監管執法與燃油價格上漲所驅動。這些因素使經紀業務毛利率為11.4%,落在我們展望區間的低端。經紀業務毛利率環比下降50個基點,主要由整車平均運距增加與燃油價格上漲所致。
Higher fuel prices were an approximately 20 to 30 basis point headwind to brokerage gross margin, while rising fuel prices lead to increased revenue without a meaningful corresponding increase in gross profit dollars as fuel costs are passed through over time. Truckload gross profit per load increased 9% sequentially. This is reflective of a significant increase in spot loads and an increase in contract rates due to tightening capacity.
燃油價格上漲對經紀業務毛利率造成約20至30個基點的逆風;同時,燃油價格上升會推升營收,但由於燃油成本會隨時間轉嫁,毛利金額並不會出現顯著的相應增加。整車每趟載運毛利環比增加9%。這反映即期載運量顯著增加,以及因運能收緊而帶動合約費率上升。
We expect overall gross profit per load to improve in the second quarter given increased spot volume and higher contract rates. Complementary services revenue in the quarter of $388 million was down 7% year over year and represented 26% of our total revenue. Complementary services gross margin was 19.8%, down 40 basis points sequentially and 120 basis points year over year.
我們預期第二季整體每趟載運毛利將改善,受惠於即期運量增加與更高的合約費率。本季補充性服務營收為3.88億美元,年減7%,占我們總營收的26%。補充性服務毛利率為19.8%,環比下降40個基點,年減120個基點。
Most of the sequential decline was due to the impact from weather. Within managed transportation, complementary services generated $123 million of revenue in the quarter, down 10% year over year. As a reminder, last quarter we talked about the restructuring of our express service offering within managed transportation, which explains most of the year-over-year revenue decline in Q1.
環比下滑多數來自天氣影響。在管理式運輸中,補充性服務本季創造1.23億美元營收,年減10%。提醒一下,上季我們談到管理式運輸中快遞服務產品的重整,這解釋了第一季年對年營收下滑的大部分原因。
Revenue associated with this offering is being serviced across other lines of business within RXO. Encouragingly, our automotive business within managed transportation increased slightly year over year, and we are well positioned to capitalize on any improvement in demand. Our last mile business generated $265 million in revenue in the quarter, down 5% year over year with stops down 8% year over year. This was lower than our expectation of down mid-single digits due to the previously discussed weather impact.
與該產品相關的營收目前由RXO其他業務線承接服務。令人鼓舞的是,管理式運輸中的汽車業務年對年略有成長,我們也已做好準備把握任何需求改善的機會。本季我們的最後一哩路業務營收為2.65億美元,年減5%,停靠點數年減8%。由於前述天氣影響,這一結果低於我們原先預期的年減中個位數。
During the quarter, we also saw continued weak demand for big and bulky goods. While demand generally remains soft, we are seeing more favorable trends within last mile to start the second quarter with improvement across our RXO hubs and back of store business.
在本季度期間,我們也看到大型與笨重商品的需求持續疲弱。雖然整體需求仍偏弱,但我們在最後一哩路業務中看到較有利的趨勢,使第二季開局良好,並帶動我們的 RXO 樞紐與門店後場(back of store)業務全面改善。
Turning to slide 8, letâs discuss our capital structure and balance sheet. During the quarter, we refinanced our 2027 senior notes. The new notes have a maturity of May 2031 with a coupon of (inaudible)
接著看第 8 張投影片,讓我們討論資本結構與資產負債表。本季度期間,我們為 2027 年到期的優先票據進行再融資。新票據將於 2031 年 5 月到期,票面利率為(聽不清)
At the end of the first quarter, our total available liquidity was $386 million. With the successful refinancing of our senior notes in February and our new asset-based lending facility that we announced last quarter, RXO has a strong capital structure and liquidity position that gives us the flexibility to invest and grow across all phases of the freight cycle. Quarter end net leverage was 3.7 times LTM bank-adjusted EBITDA due to the lower levels of profitability. We anticipate our leverage ratio to move lower in the second half of the year.
在第一季末,我們的可用總流動性為 3.86 億美元。隨著我們於 2 月成功完成優先票據再融資,以及上季宣布的新資產擔保貸款(ABL)融資安排,RXO 擁有強健的資本結構與流動性部位,使我們能在貨運景氣循環的各個階段保持投資與成長的彈性。由於獲利水準較低,季末淨槓桿為過去十二個月(LTM)銀行調整後 EBITDA 的 3.7 倍。我們預期槓桿比率將在今年下半年下降。
Moving to slide 9, letâs talk about cash. For the quarter, our adjusted free cash flow was -$15 million and was impacted by lower levels of profitability and some timing considerations. CapEx is higher in the first half of the year, but is expected to decline approximately 30% in the second half, primarily due to lower real estate and software expenditures.
接著看第 9 張投影片,談談現金。本季度調整後自由現金流為 -1,500 萬美元,主要受到獲利水準較低以及部分時點因素影響。資本支出(CapEx)在上半年較高,但預期下半年將下降約 30%,主要因不動產與軟體支出降低。
In addition, as a result of the refinancing of our senior notes, we accelerated the associated interest payment of $7 million into the first quarter, which usually occurs in the second quarter. Our bond interest will be paid semi-annually beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. Given our asset-light business model, we remain confident in a 40% to 60% conversion over the long term and across market cycles.
此外,由於優先票據再融資,我們將相關的 700 萬美元利息付款提前至第一季入帳,該付款通常發生在第二季。自今年第四季起,我們的債券利息將改為每半年支付一次。鑑於我們的輕資產商業模式,我們仍對長期、跨市場循環達成 40% 至 60% 的轉換率(conversion)充滿信心。
From a cash balance perspective, we ended the quarter with $21 million of cash. Cash increased by $4 million sequentially, with no change to the ABL balance. In the quarter, we had $12 million of cash outflows associated with our bond refinancing and $9 million of restructuring and integration activities in line with our expectations. Letâs move to slide 14 and discuss our outlook.
就現金餘額而言,我們在季末持有 2,100 萬美元現金。現金較前一季增加 400 萬美元,而 ABL 餘額沒有變動。本季度,我們有 1,200 萬美元的現金流出與債券再融資相關,另有 900 萬美元用於重整與整合活動,符合我們的預期。接著看第 14 張投影片,討論我們的展望。
Within our brokerage business, weâre seeing improvements as a result of our bid season strategy. The action weâve taken to capitalize on spot opportunities, combined with decreased capacity in the market. As I mentioned earlier, weâre also seeing encouraging trends within our last mile business, in addition to typical seasonality.
在我們的經紀(brokerage)業務中,我們因投標季(bid season)策略而看到改善。我們採取的行動是把握現貨(spot)機會,並結合市場運能下降的情況。如我先前提到的,除了典型季節性因素外,我們在最後一哩路業務也看到令人鼓舞的趨勢。
For the combined company in the second quarter, we expect to generate between $27 million and $37 million of adjusted EBITDA. This reflects the strong contribution margins in our business, attributable to both volume and price. Our 2026 modeling assumptions remain unchanged. Jared will provide more details on our outlook shortly. As we think about the macro economy, we are optimistic. While consumer confidence has recently decreased given geopolitical concerns and higher oil prices, there are many bright spots in the macroeconomic data. Improvements in the industrial economy are noteworthy.
就合併後公司在第二季而言,我們預期可創造 2,700 萬至 3,700 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。這反映我們業務強勁的貢獻毛利率,來自於運量與價格兩方面。我們對 2026 年的建模假設維持不變。Jared 稍後將提供更多展望細節。就總體經濟而言,我們保持樂觀。雖然因地緣政治疑慮與油價上升,消費者信心近期有所下降,但總體經濟數據中仍有許多亮點。工業景氣的改善尤其值得關注。
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in expansionary territory every month this year. Data last week showed a strong increase in capital goods orders, which is a good leading indicator of business investment. Year-to-date tax refunds are up double digits, helping to support the consumer. Weâre entering the second quarter with strong momentum across all of our lines of business. The truckload market remains tight despite soft demand. Any sustained broad-based improvement will set up for a sharp inflection, and RXO is well-positioned to win.
ISM 製造業 PMI 今年每個月都處於擴張區間。上週數據顯示資本財訂單大幅增加,這是企業投資的良好領先指標。年初至今的退稅金額呈雙位數成長,有助於支撐消費。我們以強勁動能進入第二季,涵蓋所有業務線。儘管需求偏弱,整車(truckload)市場仍然吃緊。任何持續且廣泛的改善都將帶來明顯的拐點,而 RXO 已具備良好條件把握勝機。
Now, Iâd like to turn it over to Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld, who will talk in more detail about our results and our outlook.
現在,我想把時間交給首席策略長 Jared Weisfeld,他將更詳細說明我們的業績與展望。
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. Letâs start by reviewing our quarterly brokerage performance in more detail. Overall brokerage volume declined by 8% year over year. LTL volume increased by 5% year over year and represented 28% of brokerage volume in the first quarter. Truckload volume declined by 12% year over year and represented 72% of brokerage volume. Truckload volume was in line with the expectations that we communicated to you last quarter.
謝謝你,Jamie,各位早安。我們先更詳細回顧本季的經紀業務表現。整體經紀運量年減 8%。零擔(LTL)運量年增 5%,第一季占經紀運量的 28%。整車(Truckload)運量年減 12%,占經紀運量的 72%。整車運量符合我們上季向各位溝通的預期。
Importantly, full truckload volume improved every month throughout Q1. Year-over-year trends have started to improve and truckload volume in the month of April was down only 2% year over year. Spot represented 33% of our truckload volume in the quarter, increasing by 500 basis points sequentially and 600 basis points year over year. Spot increased as a percentage of the mix in every month during the quarter and increased further in the month of April to 35%. Contract volume was 67% of our overall truckload volume in the quarter.
重要的是,整車運量在第一季每個月都持續改善。年對年趨勢已開始好轉,4 月整車運量年減僅 2%。本季度現貨占整車運量的 33%,較前一季增加 500 個基點,較去年同期增加 600 個基點。現貨占比在本季度每個月都上升,並在 4 月進一步提高至 35%。本季度合約運量占整體整車運量的 67%。
Moving to revenue per load on slide 10. In the first quarter, truckload revenue per load increased by 8% year over year. This was the fastest increase in four years, driven by supply-side tightening. Note, this excludes the impact of both fuel prices and length of haul. Revenue per load benefited from a richer mix of spot freight. New contract rates also went into effect as a result of bid season. Revenue per load growth accelerated in the month of April, increasing by 12% year over year, excluding the impact of higher fuel prices and length of haul.
接著看第 10 張投影片的每載次收入(revenue per load)。第一季整車每載次收入年增 8%。這是四年來最快的增幅,主要由供給端收緊所帶動。請注意,這不包含燃油價格與運距(length of haul)的影響。每載次收入受惠於現貨貨量占比提高、組合更佳。由於投標季,新合約費率也已生效。4 月每載次收入成長加速,年增 12%,同樣不含燃油價格上升與運距的影響。
Itâs important to note that industry-wide line haul rates have increased by approximately 20% since the third quarter of last year, primarily due to supply-side market tightening. We continue to work with our customers to optimize service, volume and price. Given the current environment, we now expect contract rates to be up high single digits, which compares to our previous forecast of up low to mid-single digits just 90 days ago. This, combined with a higher spot mix, should result in even stronger revenue per load trends.
需要特別指出的是,自去年第三季以來,全產業幹線(line haul)運價已上升約 20%,主要因供給端市場收緊。我們持續與客戶合作,以最佳化服務、運量與價格。在目前環境下,我們現在預期合約費率將上升高個位數百分比,對比僅 90 天前我們的預測為上升低至中個位數百分比。再加上更高的現貨占比,應可帶來更強勁的每載次收入趨勢。
Letâs now discuss current market conditions and brokerage margin performance on slide 11. The truckload market remains tight. Freight market KPIs were at their highest level in four years, and industry-wide tender rejections eclipsed 15% in the quarter. Importantly, this tightness was despite muted demand and a seasonally slow quarter.
接著在第 11 張投影片討論目前市場狀況與經紀毛利率表現。整車市場仍然吃緊。貨運市場關鍵績效指標(KPI)達到四年來最高水準,全產業的投標拒收率(tender rejections)在本季度超過 15%。重要的是,這種緊俏是在需求低迷且屬季節性淡季的季度中出現的。
Tighter market conditions have been primarily driven by structural supply-side changes, largely due to enforcement actions related to non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency. From a profitability standpoint, truckload gross profit per load increased by 9% from the fourth quarter as a stronger spot mix offset the squeeze in our contractual book of business. We expect our spot mix and gross profit per load to improve again in the second quarter. Of note, in the month of April, truckload gross profit per load was approximately 10% higher when compared to the first quarter.
市場轉趨緊俏主要由結構性的供給端變化所驅動,主要與對非本國居住者商業駕照(non-domiciled CDLs)及英語能力(English language proficiency)相關的執法行動有關。就獲利而言,整車每載次毛利(gross profit per load)較第四季增加 9%,因較強的現貨組合抵銷了我們合約業務組合所承受的擠壓。我們預期第二季現貨占比與每載次毛利將再次改善。值得注意的是,4 月整車每載次毛利相較第一季約高出 10%。
Turning to slide 12. As we just discussed, truckload gross profit per load increased by 9% in the first quarter, given a richer spot mix offsetting the squeeze in our contractual book of business. This was the largest sequential improvement in truckload gross profit per load in more than three years.
接著看第12頁投影片。如同我們剛才討論的,第一季每趟卡車整車(truckload)毛利提升9%,因為現貨(spot)組合更佳,抵銷了我們合約業務組合所承受的擠壓。這是三年多來卡車整車每趟毛利最大的連續季改善。
Moving to slide 13. RXOâs LTL brokerage volume continues to outperform the broader LTL market. Weâre winning LTL business with existing truckload customers and new customers that trust us with their freight because of our excellent service, increasing the stickiness of these relationships. Last year, we grew our LTL volume significantly.
接著看第13頁投影片。RXO 的零擔(LTL)經紀量持續優於整體 LTL 市場。我們憑藉卓越服務,從既有的整車客戶以及信任我們承運其貨物的新客戶中贏得 LTL 業務,提升了這些關係的黏著度。去年,我們的 LTL 量大幅成長。
Recently, weâve expanded the scope of some of that business and transitioned it to managed transportation. This is another example of the power of the RXO model. Once a customer is on the RXO platform, we can quickly adjust to their business needs by providing complementary services. Doing so increases the stickiness of our customer base. For our outlook, Iâd like to review the significant progress we made in the quarter, increasing the adoption of agentic AI solutions, which you can find on slide 6.
近期,我們擴大了其中部分業務的範疇,並將其轉為管理式運輸(managed transportation)。這是 RXO 模式威力的另一個例子。一旦客戶上了 RXO 平台,我們就能透過提供互補服務,快速因應其業務需求調整。這麼做能提升我們客戶基礎的黏著度。就我們的展望而言,我想回顧本季取得的重大進展:提高代理式 AI(agentic AI)解決方案的採用率,相關內容可見第6頁投影片。
We continue to focus our technology investments on driving improvements across our key pillars: volume, margin, productivity, and service. Starting with volume and margin. As Drew mentioned earlier, we broadly deployed a new proprietary AI spot agent, and the early results are encouraging. Reps that are using the agent are seeing an increase in both volume and gross profit per load as the agent helps unlock incremental volume opportunities with strong contribution margins.
我們持續將科技投資聚焦於推動四大關鍵支柱的改善:量、利潤率、生產力與服務。先從量與利潤率談起。如 Drew 先前提到,我們已廣泛部署新的自研 AI 現貨代理(spot agent),初步成果令人鼓舞。使用該代理的業務代表在量與每趟毛利上都看到提升,因為代理能協助發掘具備強勁貢獻毛利的增量承運機會。
We also expanded the adoption of our proprietary Spot Bot and API tools. Continued investment is yielding tangible results. The amount of truckloads that were quoted digitally improved by 30% sequentially. We also continue to streamline our tech to make it easier for carriers to do business with RXO. Last quarter, we began testing a new matching algorithm, and as a result, digital offers from carriers have increased by about 15%.
我們也擴大了自研 Spot Bot 與 API 工具的採用。持續投資正帶來具體成果。以數位方式報價的整車運量較前一季提升30%。我們也持續精簡技術,讓承運商更容易與 RXO 做生意。上季我們開始測試新的媒合演算法,因此承運商的數位報價(offers)增加約15%。
From a productivity standpoint, we continue to expand our agentic AI deployments, which automated more than 500,000 phone calls in the quarter. Our people are becoming more productive and spending more time with our customers and carriers to drive creative solutions for their business. Weâre also innovating to drive even better service and decrease risk.
從生產力角度來看,我們持續擴大代理式 AI 的部署,本季自動化了超過50萬通電話。我們的同仁正變得更有效率,並能把更多時間投入與客戶及承運商互動,為其業務提出創新解決方案。我們也持續創新,以提供更好的服務並降低風險。
We introduced an AI Fraud Protection Agent in the quarter, providing additional protection for shippers that rely on RXO to move their high-risk freight. We continue to apply AI to structurally improve our long-term margin profile by driving more volume through our business at a lower cost to serve. Iâd now like to give you some more details on our second quarter outlook, starting with brokerage. Given our success in converting our late-stage pipeline during bid season, we expect truckload year-over-year volume trends to materially improve in Q2.
本季我們推出 AI 詐欺防護代理(AI Fraud Protection Agent),為仰賴 RXO 運送高風險貨物的託運人提供額外保護。我們持續運用 AI,透過以更低的服務成本承接更多運量,從結構上改善我們長期的利潤率輪廓。接下來我想提供第二季展望的更多細節,先從經紀業務(brokerage)開始。鑑於我們在投標季成功轉化後期商機管線,我們預期第二季整車年對年運量趨勢將明顯改善。
We expect sequential growth in volume, which will translate to approximately flat volume year over year. We continue to expect our truckload volume to resume its year-over-year outperformance versus the market as early as the middle of the year. We also expect our LTL volume to be approximately flat year over year. This accounts for the part of the business that has recently transitioned to managed transportation.
我們預期運量將呈現季對季成長,換算後年對年大致持平。我們仍預期整車運量最快在年中即可恢復相對市場的年對年超越表現。我們也預期 LTL 運量年對年約持平。這已反映近期轉為管理式運輸的那部分業務。
Importantly, based on the strength of our LTL pipeline, we anticipate LTL returning to year-over-year volume growth in the second half of the year. Moving to truckload gross profit per load, we expect tight market conditions to persist for the remainder of the second quarter. Given the teamâs strong execution, we expect a higher spot mix and the phasing in of higher contract rates to result in another quarter of truckload gross profit per load improvement.
重要的是,基於我們 LTL 商機管線的強勁,我們預期 LTL 將在下半年恢復年對年運量成長。再看整車每趟毛利,我們預期緊俏的市場狀況將持續到第二季剩餘期間。在團隊強勁執行力下,我們預期更高的現貨組合,以及較高合約運價的逐步到位,將帶來另一季整車每趟毛利的改善。
That is despite an expected moderation from April to May, given seasonal market tightness and DOT checkpoint week. Letâs now talk about managed transportation services. In managed transportation, weâre winning new business and the pipeline remains strong. Our automotive business has also returned to growth, and we expect managed transportation results to improve when compared to the first quarter.
儘管我們預期4月到5月會有所趨緩,原因是季節性市場緊俏以及 DOT 檢查站週。接著談管理式運輸服務。在管理式運輸方面,我們持續贏得新業務,商機管線仍然強勁。我們的汽車業務也已恢復成長,我們預期管理式運輸的表現相較第一季將有所改善。
In last mile, while big and bulky demand generally remains soft, the second quarter is our seasonally strongest quarter, and weâre seeing improved business momentum. We expect last mile stops to be down a low single-digit % year over year, improving from the first quarter. Putting it all together, we expect RXOâs second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $27 million-$37 million. We see a clear path to achieve the high end of our outlook.
在最後一哩(last mile)方面,雖然大型與笨重(big and bulky)需求整體仍偏疲弱,但第二季是我們季節性最強的一季,我們也看到業務動能改善。我們預期最後一哩停靠點(stops)年對年將下降低個位數百分比,較第一季改善。綜合以上,我們預期 RXO 第二季調整後 EBITDA 將落在2,700萬至3,700萬美元區間。我們看到達成展望區間上緣有清晰路徑。
The midpoint of our range assumes market conditions that are similar to those that weâve experienced over the last few years, with gross profit per load compressing from April to May, no meaningful uptick in demand. While weâre encouraged by the anticipated rapid sequential growth in EBITDA, weâre even more excited about our path to normalized earnings and the market setup.
區間中點假設市場狀況與過去幾年相近:每趟毛利從4月到5月收縮,需求沒有明顯回升。雖然我們對 EBITDA 預期的快速季對季成長感到鼓舞,但我們對邁向常態化獲利的路徑以及市場態勢更感到振奮。
To close, weâre entering the second quarter with strong momentum, improved profitability, and a growth mindset. In brokerage, truckload volume is firmly on a trajectory toward growth and outperformance. Managed transportation continues to win new awards with a growing pipeline, and automotive has returned to growth. Last mile is seeing improved trends, and we have a huge opportunity within the Middle Mile. We are aggressively investing in artificial intelligence, leveraging our massive scale and proprietary data.
最後總結,我們帶著強勁動能、更佳獲利能力與成長思維進入第二季。在經紀業務方面,整車運量正穩步走向成長與超越表現。管理式運輸持續在商機管線擴大下贏得新案,汽車業務也已恢復成長。最後一哩趨勢改善,而我們在中段運輸(Middle Mile)也有巨大機會。我們正積極投資人工智慧,運用我們龐大的規模與自有資料。
The supply-side changes occurring in the truckload industry represent the biggest structural transformation in almost 50 years and are setting the stage for a multi-year recovery. RXO is capitalizing on these changes by staying close to our customers, delivering superior service, and winning spot opportunities. RXO is well-positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns over the long term.
整車產業供給端正在發生的變化,是近50年來最大的結構性轉型,並為多年期復甦奠定舞台。RXO 透過貼近客戶、提供更優質的服務並贏得現貨機會,正把握這些變化。RXO 已具備良好定位,長期可為股東帶來強勁回報。
With that, Iâll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.
接下來我把時間交給主持人進行問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.
(主持人指示) Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Whatâs your spot mix up? I believe you said 600 basis points year over year. This is a pretty stark contrast to your largest competitor, where its contract exposure was up 500 basis points. How are you thinking about your strategy at this stage in the cycle, and what company-specific actions are driving your ability to execute on the increased spot volume? Thanks.
你們的現貨組合提高了多少?我記得你說年對年提高了600個基點。這與你們最大競爭對手形成相當鮮明的對比,對方的合約曝險提高了500個基點。在本輪景氣循環的這個階段,你們如何思考策略?以及有哪些公司層面的具體作為,驅動你們能執行並提升現貨運量?謝謝。
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Yeah. Good morning, Stephanie. You know, first,
是的。早安,Stephanie。你知道,首先,
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Weâve got a lot of respect for Robinson and the team, and theyâve had good results. Weâve been very clear for the last several years that this is the part of the market that we went in. Weâve got a model thatâs built on service.
我們非常尊重 Robinson 和他們的團隊,他們也取得了不錯的成果。過去幾年我們一直非常清楚地表示,這就是我們切入的市場區塊。我們的模式是以服務為核心建立的。
When you think about service, we talked about several customer awards that are awarding us with Carrier of the Year awards. Youâre seeing it in our pipeline. Youâre seeing it in the conversion of a larger pipeline. We talk about solutions. Thereâs always optimization that goes into customer freight and making sure that we are looking at the different modes of transportation that we can service them from. Even the different lines of business, you saw us convert some customer business from brokerage into managed transportation. You see the new Middle Mile Solutions offering.
當你談到服務時,我們提到過多項客戶獎項,這些獎項授予我們「年度承運商」等榮譽。你在我們的業務管線中看得到。你也看得到更大管線的轉化。我們談的是解決方案。客戶貨運總是會進行最佳化,並確保我們在不同運輸模式上,能以多種方式為他們提供服務。甚至在不同的業務線上,你看到我們把部分客戶業務從經紀(brokerage)轉換到管理式運輸(managed transportation)。你也看到新的「中段運輸解決方案」(Middle Mile Solutions)產品。
On the technology side, weâre using AI to continue to get more efficient within the business. Weâre driving more loads. You heard me talk some about that. The most important thing is relationships with customers. Our top customers have been with us for 16 years on average. They trust us. They know that when thereâs any disruption in the market, that their spots, projects, and mini bids, that RXO is the place that they turn. Weâre in the early innings. Weâre just now starting to see the lift off of that.
在科技方面,我們運用 AI 持續提升業務效率。我們推動更多貨載。你也聽我談到一些。最重要的是與客戶的關係。我們的前幾大客戶平均與我們合作了 16 年。他們信任我們。他們知道,當市場出現任何擾動時,無論是他們的現貨、專案或小型招標(mini bids),RXO 都是他們會求助的地方。我們還在早期階段。我們現在才剛開始看到這件事的起飛效應。
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Thank you. Thatâs helpful. Actually, pretty good follow-up to a question that I had or pretty good segue into a follow-up that I have. As you think about some of the investments that you have, and that you just called out, especially at AI and just technology, how do you balance, I guess, AI and tech investments with your people and your relationships, particularly at this point in this cycle?
謝謝。這很有幫助。其實,這正好是我原本想問的問題的很好的延伸,或是很好的銜接,讓我可以追問。當你思考你們所做的一些投資,以及你剛剛點出的,特別是在 AI 與科技方面,你如何在這個週期的此刻,平衡 AI 與科技投資,和你們的人員與關係?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We value the relationship first. We are a relationship business. We win because of the relationships that we have with customers. Customers come back to us because of what weâve done before, and itâs the people that they do business with.
我們把關係放在第一位。我們是一門關係型的生意。我們之所以能贏,是因為我們與客戶之間的關係。客戶會回來找我們,是因為我們過去做過的事,而他們做生意的對象是人。
When you look at the tightening that happened in the market in December and January, it was our team and our people that they were reaching out to. Weâre using technology to fundamentally change the business and drive more productivity within it. You saw our productivity was up 15% on a year-over-year basis. You continue to see us be able to quote more loads with the quoting tool that I talked about. The adoption that weâve already got on that, the people who are using it are winning 15% more volume versus what they were winning.
當你看 12 月與 1 月市場出現的緊縮時,客戶聯繫的是我們的團隊與我們的人。我們正運用科技從根本上改變業務,並在其中推動更高的生產力。你看到我們的生產力年增 15%。你也持續看到,透過我提到的報價工具,我們能夠對更多貨載進行報價。就目前的採用情況而言,使用該工具的人,相較於他們原本能贏得的量,現在能多贏得 15% 的量。
We see clear ways to improve the relationship off of the technology that weâre using.
我們看到,透過我們正在使用的科技,有很明確的方法可以改善客戶關係。
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Thanks. Appreciate it.
謝謝。感謝。
Operator
Operator
Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.
Brandon Oglenski,巴克萊(Barclays)。
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Drew, I get it was a difficult quarter, but, just looking even at the guidance for 2Q, I think at the high end, earnings are still down year over year. I know you got a lot more spot mix, which I thought historically is what really can drive that incremental gross profit as you look forward. I get it, maybe 2Q is still not where you want to be, but I think even Jared was alluding to it earlier. Just what is the right normalized earnings power for this business, if you donât mind?
Drew,我理解這是一個艱難的季度,但即便只看第二季(2Q)的指引,我認為在高端,獲利仍然是年減。我知道你們的現貨(spot)組合占比更高,而我原本以為從歷史上看,這通常能在往前看時推動那部分的增量毛利。我理解,也許第二季仍不是你們想要的位置,但我想就連 Jared 先前也在暗示。如果你不介意,這門業務在正常化情況下的獲利能力(normalized earnings power)應該是多少?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Brandon, weâve been very consistent on normalized earnings. At a midpoint in a cycle, this is a mid-single digit EBITDA business, and at an up cycle, itâs a high single to low double-digit EBITDA business. Even on our Q2 guide, we are multiples away from what normalized earnings, but we see a clear path, and we see that weâre in the early innings of heading towards that.
是的。Brandon,我們對正常化獲利一直非常一致。在週期的中段,這是一個 EBITDA 利潤率中個位數(mid-single digit)的業務;在上行週期,則是 EBITDA 利潤率高個位數到低雙位數(high single to low double-digit)的業務。即便以我們第二季的指引來看,我們距離正常化獲利仍有數倍差距,但我們看到一條清晰的路徑,也看到我們正處於朝那個方向前進的早期階段。
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Okay. I appreciate that. Maybe Jared, can you elaborate more on the spot business and how that impacts profitability here? I thought maybe with how much it improved in 1Q, maybe things could have been a bit better, but maybe weâre misinterpreting that.
好的。我很感謝。也許 Jared,你能否更詳細說明現貨業務,以及它如何影響這裡的獲利能力?我原本以為,鑑於第一季(1Q)改善幅度那麼大,也許表現可以更好一些,但也許是我們誤讀了。
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Sure, Brandon. When you look at the progression of spot mix, we increased spot mix by 500 basis points sequentially from Q4 to Q1. That was up 600 basis points year over year. We saw spot increase as a percentage of the mix every month throughout Q1. That momentum continued into Q2.
當然,Brandon。當你看現貨組合占比的進展時,我們從第四季(Q4)到第一季(Q1)按季把現貨占比提高了 500 個基點。年增則是 600 個基點。在第一季期間,我們看到現貨占比每個月都在上升。這股動能延續到了第二季(Q2)。
April spot mix was up again relative to March and relative to Q1. We are assuming that we have spot mix increase again in Q2 as a whole relative to Q1. That spot mix carries a very strong incremental contribution margin. When we think about that spot mix relative to contract, at this point in the cycle, it is multiples that of contract.
4 月的現貨占比相較於 3 月、也相較於第一季都再次上升。我們假設第二季整體的現貨占比,會相較第一季再提高。該現貨組合帶來非常強的增量貢獻毛利率(incremental contribution margin)。當我們把現貨組合與合約(contract)相比,在這個週期的此刻,現貨的貢獻是合約的數倍。
To Drewâs point earlier, weâre servicing our customers exceptionally well throughout all parts of the freight cycle, and thatâs whatâs allowing us to win. Weâre doing this, and we believe thatâs idiosyncratic to RXO. I think one point I want to reiterate, this is still a very soft part of the freight cycle, and weâre able to show a significant improvement in our spot mix, and thatâs allowing us to achieve almost a 6 times increase in terms of adjusted EBITDA from Q1 to Q2 at the midpoint of our outlook. We also see a clear path to achieve the high end of our outlook.
呼應 Drew 先前的觀點,我們在貨運週期的各個階段都以卓越的方式服務客戶,而這正是讓我們能夠取勝的原因。我們正在這麼做,而且我們相信這是 RXO 特有的(idiosyncratic)。我想重申一點:目前仍是貨運週期非常疲弱的階段,但我們仍能展現現貨組合的顯著改善,這讓我們在展望中點情境下,第二季相較第一季的調整後 EBITDA 幾乎提升到 6 倍。我們也看到一條清晰的路徑,可以達成我們展望的高端。
Operator
Operator
Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.
Ravi Shanker,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Drew and Jared. Drew, as you highlighted, there are a number of new regulations impacting supply on the PL side. There are some potential catalysts that may be impacting supply on the brokerage side as well, particularly a renewed focus on chameleon carriers, and the potential Montgomery case in front of the Supreme Court. Would just love your views on how much of a endemic issue is this and what impact there could be for the brokerage industry and maybe even RXO, both as a risk and opportunity going forward?
Drew 和 Jared。Drew,如你所強調,PL 端有多項新法規正在影響供給。在經紀(brokerage)端也可能有一些潛在催化因素會影響供給,特別是對「變色龍承運商」(chameleon carriers)的重新聚焦,以及最高法院正在審理的 Montgomery 案的潛在影響。很想聽聽你對此的看法:這在多大程度上是結構性(endemic)的問題?對經紀產業、甚至對 RXO 未來可能帶來什麼影響?無論是風險還是機會。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Iâll start with the current regulations. Iâll move on to the Montgomery case. If you look at the current regulations, itâs clear that itâs driving a higher quality of carriers across the network. Weâve got a very robust, rigorous carrier vetting process. We built the business off of just-in-time automotive shipments, off of high-value cargo shipments, so the bar to haul loads for us is very high.
是的。我先從現行法規談起。再談 Montgomery 案。如果你看現行法規,很明顯它正在推動整個網路中承運商品質的提升。我們有非常健全且嚴格的承運商審核(vetting)流程。我們的業務是建立在即時制(just-in-time)的汽車運輸,以及高價值貨物運輸之上,因此要為我們承運貨載的門檻非常高。
We continue to increase the standards on being able to haul loads for RXO. I think thatâs been a differentiator for customers. When customers look to who theyâre doing business with now, with everything thatâs going on, they want to talk through what is your carrier vetting process and who youâre using. Weâre winning because of that right now.
我們持續提高能為 RXO 承運貨載的標準。我認為這一直是客戶端的差異化因素。在目前各種情況之下,當客戶評估他們現在要與誰合作時,他們會希望深入了解:你的承運商審核流程是什麼、你使用的是哪些承運商。我們現在正因為這一點而取勝。
Shifting to the Montgomery case, I think from my opinion, it is clear that the side of the industry is the right side. I think the law is clearly written off of that way. Running our company, weâve got a playbook for everything, and weâre prepared for anything. If the case goes on the Montgomery side, I think that will drive out the tail on brokers and will create a lot of opportunity for organic growth very quickly in our business. Itâll also create some opportunities on the M&A side for consolidations.
轉到 Montgomery 案件,我認為很清楚,從我的觀點來看,產業這一方是正確的一方。我認為法律條文很明確就是這樣寫的。在經營我們公司時,我們對所有事情都有一套作戰手冊,而且我們對任何情況都做好準備。如果案件判到 Montgomery 那一方,我認為那將會把尾端的經紀商擠出市場,並且會在我們的業務中很快創造大量有機成長的機會。這也會在併購(M&A)面帶來一些整併機會。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Got it. Thatâs very helpful. Maybe Drew, I think you said that your agentic tools made 500,000 phone calls in the last quarter, if I got that stat right. Can you just give us a frame of reference, like what % of total calls was that, and kind of is there a target for where that goes over time?
了解。這非常有幫助。Drew,也許我記得你說你們的代理式工具在上一季打了 50 萬通電話,如果我沒記錯這個數字。你能不能給我們一個參考框架,例如那占總通話量的百分之多少,以及隨著時間推移,你們對它的目標大概會走到哪裡?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Itâs a very low percentage of the number of calls, Ravi, and I think that that shows how far we can go and that weâre in the very early innings of this. The journeyâs just starting, and weâve got a lot of upside off of what weâre doing there.
Ravi,那占通話總量的比例非常低,我認為這也顯示我們還能走得多遠,而且我們現在還在非常早期的階段。這段旅程才剛開始,我們在那方面的作為還有很大的上行空間。
Operator
Operator
Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.
Chris Wetherbee,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。
Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst
Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst
Yeah, hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to dig a little bit more onto the spot moves because that seems to be sort of the big piece in the quarter here. I guess when you think about competitively, where do you think this share is coming from? Because it sounds like you still think the sort of demand environment is muted, it doesnât feel like itâs kind of organically coming through with more volume. It just seems like youâre capturing share from other folks. Just kind of curious how youâre thinking about that market dynamic.
是的,嗨,謝謝。各位早安。我想再深入一點談談現貨(spot)的變動,因為這看起來是本季比較大的部分。我想從競爭角度來看,你們覺得這些市占是從哪裡來的?因為聽起來你們仍然認為需求環境偏疲弱,感覺不像是因為量增加而自然帶動。看起來更像是你們從其他人那裡搶到市占。想請教你們怎麼看這個市場動態。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. On the spot market a lot of times those are open bids, so itâs not a clear indication of where itâs coming, but weâre also not picky on where it comes from. Our goal is to service the customer and make sure that we are the ones that they are calling. I think youâre still in the early innings. Tender rejections are still sitting in the low to mid-teens right now.
是的。現貨市場很多時候是公開競標,所以不容易清楚判斷份額是從哪裡來的,但我們也不挑剔它從哪裡來。我們的目標是服務客戶,並確保我們是他們會打電話聯絡的那一家。我認為你們仍然在早期階段。目前招標拒收率(tender rejections)仍在低到中十幾%的水準。
And that, in my opinion, will continue to rise when you look at the capacity that is coming out of the market, and any signs of demand returning will take it even higher. I think thereâs more opportunity that is coming down the pipe off of that.
而且在我看來,當你看到市場運能正在退出時,這個數字會持續上升;任何需求回溫的跡象都會把它推得更高。我認為沿著這條路,後面還會有更多機會陸續出現。
For us, itâs about how well we position ourselves and are we the ones who customers come to and that they trust whenever there are those opportunities. Weâve got a team that set up war rooms of different solutions that we could provide for customers as the market was tightening, different ways that we could service them in the spot market. Weâve seen where carriers are handing back a lot of freight as the market tightens, and weâve been the place that customers have gone as thatâs happened.
對我們而言,重點在於我們把自己定位得多好,以及當那些機會出現時,客戶是否會來找我們、並且信任我們。我們有一個團隊設立了作戰室(war rooms),在市場收緊時準備各種可提供給客戶的解決方案,以及在現貨市場中服務他們的不同方式。我們看到隨著市場收緊,承運商正在退回大量貨量,而在這種情況發生時,客戶就會轉向我們。
Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst
Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst
Okay. Super helpful. I know you mentioned contract high single digits. Just wonder any sort of color in terms of how that process is going. Then maybe what sort of the exit rate of bid season might look like if itâs sort of above that high single digit number. Just kind of curious because obviously we havenât seen demand come back. It seems to be mostly driven by supply. You know, seems like thereâs upside potential if things get a bit better. Iâm just kind of curious your thoughts around that?
好的。非常有幫助。我知道你提到合約(contract)是高個位數。想請你補充一些進展的細節,說明這個流程目前進行得如何。另外,如果退出率(exit rate)在投標季(bid season)結束時可能高於那個高個位數,你覺得大概會是什麼樣子?我之所以好奇,是因為顯然我們還沒看到需求回來。看起來主要是供給端驅動。你知道,如果情況稍微好轉,似乎還有上行潛力。我想聽聽你對此的看法?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. This has definitely been a supply-driven recovery. This is the first time in 20 years of doing this that Iâve seen a supply-driven recovery that has been sustained. You know, when you look at demand is a catalyst to take it even further off of where we are today. Right now, on the supply side, I do think that supply will continue to come out, which, as I said earlier, I think will take tender rejections up even farther. Oh, contract rates.
是的。這確實是一個由供給驅動的復甦。這是我做這行 20 年來第一次看到一個由供給驅動、而且能持續的復甦。你知道,當你看需求時,它是把我們目前水準再往上推進的催化劑。就供給端而言,我確實認為供給會持續退出;如我先前所說,我認為這會讓招標拒收率再往上升。喔,合約運價(contract rates)。
Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst
Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst
Got it. Okay.
了解。好的。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Contract rates, when you look at what the exit rate was over the last four weeks, we were in the double digits. Weâve had several that have been in the low teens, even mid-teens, coming up. You know, weâre largely through the pricing piece on the bid season.
合約運價方面,若看過去四週的退出率,我們是在雙位數。我們有幾個案子在低十幾%,甚至有些到中十幾%即將出來。你知道,我們在投標季的定價部分大致已經完成。
Weâre in the implementation phase of going through the second quarter, which will continue out throughout the second quarter. Iâll say that this year is a little bit different. This has been an ongoing conversation with customers about whatâs going on in the market on the regulatory side, what to expect from a capacity standpoint, what are we doing from a carrier vetting process.
我們正在第二季的導入(implementation)階段,這會在整個第二季持續進行。我會說今年有點不一樣。我們一直在和客戶持續討論市場在法規面發生了什麼、從運能角度該預期什麼,以及我們在承運商審核(carrier vetting)流程上做了哪些事。
I think this will be a year-long of conversations, and weâve got a tool in the curve that customers view as their truth serum of whatâs going on in the market.
我認為這會是一整年的對話,而我們在 Curve 上有一個工具,客戶把它視為了解市場現況的「真相血清」(truth serum)。
Operator
Operator
Scott Group, Wolfe Research.
Scott Group,Wolfe Research。
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I get all the spot mix stuff, but if overall volume in truckload is down 12 and spot mix is up 6, I think the math implies that contract volumeâs down something like mid to high teens. Maybe just Drew, some thoughts on why weâre seeing such big declines in contract business and how you think about that sort of evolving going forward. Maybe just along the same lines, I think you said LTL volume flattens out in Q2 but then re-accelerates. Maybe just color on LTL as well. Thank you.
嗨,謝謝。各位早安。我理解現貨占比(spot mix)的部分,但如果整體整車(truckload)量下滑 12%,而現貨占比上升 6%,我想數學上意味著合約量大概下滑到中到高十幾%。Drew,也許你能談談為什麼我們看到合約業務出現這麼大的下滑,以及你怎麼看這種情況接下來的演變。另外同樣脈絡下,我想你說第二季 LTL 量大致持平,但之後會再加速。也請補充一些 LTL 的細節。謝謝。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Scott, like if you look at it, demandâs still soft. Itâs a muted environment on the demand side, the fail rates are not there. If you look at the overall industry tender rejections, theyâre sitting in the low teens right now, especially as youâre implementing new bids. Weâve said all along that weâre optimizing service, solutions, and price for customers, and I feel good about where weâre executing off of that market. On the LTL piece we talked about that being roughly flat on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter. I think weâll get back into growth mode as we get into the back half of the year on that. The pipeline is strong there.
Scott,你看,需求仍然偏弱。需求端環境偏疲弱,失敗率(fail rates)並沒有出現。如果看整體產業的招標拒收率,目前在低十幾%,尤其是在你導入新的投標結果時。我們一直都說,我們是在為客戶最佳化服務、解決方案與價格,而我對我們在這個市場上的執行狀況感到滿意。至於 LTL 的部分,我們提到第二季年對年大致持平。我認為到了下半年,我們會回到成長模式。那邊的案源(pipeline)很強。
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
When I just think longer term, I think you said earlier, mid-cycle, mid-single-digit EBITDA margin, peak of the cycle, high-single-digit. If I just look back 2021, 2022, right? Last peak, we got to like a 5% or 6% EBITDA margin. Whatâs changing here? Maybe itâs Coyote, I donât know. Whatâs changing here that we get meaningfully better sort of peak margin this time around?
當我只從更長期來看,我想你先前說過,中期循環是 EBITDA 利潤率中個位數;在景氣循環高峰則是高個位數。如果我回頭看 2021、2022,對吧?上一次高峰,我們大概到 5% 或 6% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。這次有什麼改變?也許是 Coyote,我不確定。這次到底改變了什麼,讓我們這一輪的高峰利潤率能顯著更好?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Scott, Iâll have to let Jared or Jamie weigh in, but in 2021 or 2022, I know for the brokerage business, the margins were much higher than the numbers you just tossed out. As a matter of fact, in 2022, we highlighted on one of the XPO earnings calls that brokerage margins hit double digits.
Scott,我得讓 Jared 或 Jamie 來補充,不過在 2021 或 2022 年,我知道就經紀(brokerage)業務而言,利潤率遠高於你剛剛提到的數字。事實上,在 2022 年,我們在某次 XPO 的財報電話會議上特別提到,經紀業務利潤率達到雙位數。
James Harris - Chief Financial Officer
James Harris - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. You have, you have it, Drew. Scott, thatâs the right way to think about it. Historically, if we look at our peak EBITDA, you can think about, call it, high single digits, low double digits. We do also think that there is an opportunity to continue to leverage AI to fundamentally improve the structural profitability of this business. Itâs not a mixed issue. When we think about where we are right now entering Q2, certainly with improved momentum and significant EBITDA growth, to Drewâs point, we are still multiples away from normalized earnings.
對。Drew,你說得對。Scott,這樣思考是對的。歷史上如果看我們的 EBITDA 高峰,你可以把它想成高個位數到低雙位數。我們也認為,持續運用 AI 有機會從根本上改善這項業務的結構性獲利能力。這不是組合(mix)問題。當我們思考目前進入第二季(Q2)的狀況,確實動能改善且 EBITDA 顯著成長;但如 Drew 所說,我們距離常態化獲利水準仍有數倍差距。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Scott, with more scale, I think the margins can go higher. With what weâre doing on the AI side, we talked about the AI spot agent that our team is using now, and the team that has ramped up on that first is seeing volumes up 15%. Thatâs gonna pull down cost to serve. I think those are all things that can be upside to the numbers that weâre talking about.
Scott,隨著規模更大,我認為利潤率可以更高。在 AI 方面,我們談到團隊現在正在使用的 AI 現貨代理(AI spot agent),最先導入並上手的團隊看到量提升了 15%。這會拉低服務成本(cost to serve)。我認為這些都是我們所談數字的上行因素。
Operator
Operator
Thomas Wadewitz, UBS.
UBS 的 Thomas Wadewitz。
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
Yeah. Good morning. Iâve got two. You touched a little bit, Drew, on Montgomery. I wanna drill down on that a bit further. You know, I think there is this sense that kinda heads you win, tails you win on this case, right? Like if CH loses Montgomery, then small carriers exit. I just wanna get see if you could elaborate a bit further on the mechanism for that pressure on small brokers. You know, it seems to me like the insurance costs that brokers are paying today are not very large. Iâm guessing you pay a couple million dollars a year in insurance.
是的。早安。我有兩個問題。Drew,你稍微提到 Montgomery。我想再深入一點。你知道,我覺得大家有種看法是這案子有點像「正面你贏、反面你也贏」,對吧?像是如果 CH 在 Montgomery 案敗訴,那小型承運商就會退出。我想請你再多說明一下,這種對小型經紀商(small brokers)的壓力機制是什麼。在我看來,經紀商目前支付的保險成本並不算很大。我猜你們一年大概付幾百萬美元的保險。
You know, even if it doubles, itâs like, I just donât know if thatâs the mechanism that drives small carriers out, or is it like shippers just wonât use them, and so they lose the demand side. I just wanna see if you could drill down a little bit more on how you think that might drive small carriers out if C.H. and TQL lose the, Montgomery case. I had one follow-up after that.
你知道,就算翻倍,也就是那樣而已;我不確定這是否就是讓小型承運商退出的機制,還是說像是貨主根本不會用他們,於是他們在需求端流失。我想請你再深入一點說明:如果 C.H. 和 TQL 在 Montgomery 案敗訴,你認為這會如何推動小型承運商退出。之後我還有一個追問。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Again, I wanna be clear. We think that the industry is on the right side of this and that the law is clear on how it is written, and it should be ruled in favor of the industry. If it does not err on that side, insurance costs, I wish our insurance costs were $2 million, Tom. Theyâre definitely more than that, and I think that is definitely something that would be a headwind for smaller players.
是的。再次強調,我們認為產業在這件事上站在正確的一方,且法律條文寫得很清楚,應該會做出有利於產業的裁決。如果結果不是如此,保險成本——Tom,我也希望我們的保險成本只有 200 萬美元。但肯定不只那樣,我認為這確實會對較小的業者形成逆風。
Shippersâ requirements will also go up. The carrier vetting processes weâre already seeing that play out with shippers right now, given whatâs going on on the regulatory. I think thatâs something that will kick it into high gear even faster than what it has been.
貨主的要求也會提高。鑑於目前監管面正在發生的事情,我們已經看到貨主的承運商審核(carrier vetting)流程正在演變。我認為這會讓這個趨勢加速,速度甚至會比目前更快。
Theyâre gonna want to look to do business with people who have scale, who have good technology, people that have delivered for them in the past, and people who have financial stability. Thankfully, we check all of those boxes.
他們會希望與具備規模、擁有良好科技、過去曾為他們交付成果、且財務穩健的人合作。幸好,我們全部都符合。
James Harris - Chief Financial Officer
James Harris - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I would add to that from an insurance market standpoint, the carrier, the insurance carriers are gonna be looking to brokers who have good vetting processes, are invested in carrier compliance, and the requirement for more insurance that Drew talked about will be harder for smaller players to acquire, procure from the market, I think.
是的。我再補充一點:從保險市場的角度,保險公司(insurance carriers)會更傾向與具備良好審核流程、投入承運商合規(carrier compliance)的經紀商合作;而 Drew 提到的更高保險要求,對較小業者而言,我認為會更難在市場上取得與購買。
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
I guess if youâre a small broker and you work with small or midsize shipper, do you think they will have the higher requirements too, or is it more like large shippers that drive the pressure?
我想如果你是一家小型經紀商,服務的是小型或中型貨主,你覺得他們也會提出更高要求嗎?還是主要是大型貨主帶動壓力?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think large shippers will set the tone, but small shippers will certainly wanna follow what the benefits that large shippers are receiving.
我認為大型貨主會定調,但小型貨主也一定會想跟進大型貨主所獲得的那些好處。
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
Okay. All right. Yeah. Thank you for that. Other question is just on kinda like what the mix of loser loads or kinda negative gross margin loads looks like. I think, is that pretty elevated right now? Is that something, like you see that improve quite a bit as you look forward? I think itâs just like looking under the hood a little bit, just kinda whatâs happening with that, in terms of kinda whatâs normal and where are you at for negative gross margin loads?
好的。好。是的。謝謝你的說明。另一個問題是關於虧損貨載(loser loads)或毛利為負的貨載(negative gross margin loads)的組合大概長什麼樣。我想問,這目前是不是相當偏高?往前看,你覺得這會改善很多嗎?我想只是更深入看一下內部狀況:就毛利為負的貨載而言,什麼是常態、你們目前處於什麼水準?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Negative gross margin loads are definitely up. The other thing that is also up is our high margin winning loads, that is also up significantly, and those go hand in hand. If I think back to 2022 that was so our strongest profitability, as I just highlighted to Scott. That was our highest negative margin load percentage as a business.
是的。毛利為負的貨載確實增加了。同時也增加的是我們高毛利的贏單貨載(high margin winning loads),而且增幅也很顯著,兩者是相伴而生的。如果我回想 2022 年——那是我們獲利能力最強的一年,正如我剛剛對 Scott 強調的。那也是我們業務中毛利為負貨載占比最高的一年。
Again, because customers trust us, because we deliver for them, that was also our highest high margin loads during that time period as well. Itâs about creating solutions for customers, being the carrier of choice for customers as the market tightens. I think that this is the first inning of us proving that thatâs who we are. Weâve told you for multiple years that as the market tightens, customers will come to us with spots, projects, and mini bids.
同樣地,因為客戶信任我們、因為我們能為他們交付成果,那段期間我們的高毛利貨載也同樣是最高的。重點在於為客戶創造解決方案,並在市場轉緊時成為客戶的首選承運商(carrier of choice)。我認為這是我們證明「我們就是這樣的公司」的第一局(first inning)。我們多年來一直告訴各位,當市場轉緊時,客戶會帶著現貨(spots)、專案(projects)與小型招標(mini bids)來找我們。
This is the evidence that that is happening, especially as things are getting re-rated and turned back to customers. Weâre seeing big wins there, both on the spot and the contract side. Yes, negative gross margin loads are elevated, but so are high margin loads. We look at the customers as total profitability, not off of one load.
這就是正在發生的證據,特別是當價格正在重新評價(re-rated)並且回到由客戶主導時。我們在現貨與合約兩端都看到很大的勝出。是的,毛利為負的貨載偏高,但高毛利貨載也同樣偏高。我們看的是客戶的整體獲利貢獻,而不是只看單一一票貨載。
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst
You donât necessarily need the bad loads to go down, itâs just youâre making more money on the broader mix. Is that kind of the way to look at it?
你不一定需要那些不好的貨載量下降,只是你在更廣泛的組合上賺得更多。大概可以這樣看嗎?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We look at the total customer profitability. I think it would be short-sighted to look at it on a 1 load basis.
我們看的是整體客戶的獲利能力。我認為只用單一貨載來看會很短視。
Operator
Operator
Ariel Rosa, Citigroup.
Ariel Rosa,花旗集團。
Ariel Rosa - Analyst
Ariel Rosa - Analyst
Hey, good morning. I wanted to go back to this point about truckload volume being down 12% year over year. Just, I was hoping you could help us contextualize that number. Maybe you could give your view on kind of how much the overall market was down relative to that 12%. Just help us understand, like, how much of that was RXO making a deliberate decision to move away from certain loads? Or, like, how are you moving relative to the market, and what gets you back to taking share?
嗨,早安。我想回到卡車整車(truckload)運量年減12%這點。我希望你能幫我們把這個數字放在脈絡中理解。也許你可以談談整體市場相較於這個12%大概下滑了多少。也請幫我們理解,其中有多少是RXO刻意決定遠離某些貨載所造成的?或者說,你們相對於市場的變化如何,以及要如何回到重新取得市占?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we talked about some headwinds in the business heading into it. I think off of memory, Cass Freight Index was down around 6, and our truckload volume was down around 12. You also see the rate of change where we talk about it being flattish on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter, so the rate of change exiting from Q1 to Q2.
是的,我們先前談過進入這段期間業務面臨的一些逆風。我印象中,Cass Freight Index大約下滑6%,而我們的整車運量大約下滑12%。你也會看到變動率(rate of change):我們提到第二季年對年大致持平,所以是從第一季到第二季的變動率。
The biggest thing driving the rate of change is, 1, our conversion on our sales pipeline. Weâre winning there, and weâre winning in big ways off of big numbers, and weâre also seeing a lot more spots. I mean, I think thereâs two things that are driving the improvement and the rate of change from what youâre seeing from the first quarter to the second quarter.
推動變動率的最大因素是:第一,我們在銷售管線的轉換率。我們在那裡贏了,而且是以很大的幅度、在很大的基數上贏,同時我們也看到更多即期(spot)業務。我的意思是,我認為有兩件事在推動你從第一季到第二季所看到的改善與變動率。
Ariel Rosa - Analyst
Ariel Rosa - Analyst
True, what is it thatâs driving the delta between the 6% and the 12% in the first quarter? Just âcause thatâs what Iâm not clear on.
確實,那第一季6%和12%之間的差距是什麼在驅動?因為這點我不太清楚。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think whenever you look at the 6% to the 12%, we talked about the pricing strategy last year. I think we highlighted that two or three earnings calls ago, where we said that this was gonna be the position we were in. There wasnât a lot of spots out there in Q4.
是的。我想當你看6%到12%時,我們談過去年的定價策略。我想我們在兩三次前的財報電話會議上就強調過,並說我們會處在這樣的位置。第四季外面的即期(spot)不多。
Spots really started to come on in February, you saw December and January where there wasnât a lot of spots and you were still seeing contracts hold up. As soon as the spots started to come in, thatâs whenever you started to see the rate of change in the business, I think itâs obvious whenever you saw that April was down too.
即期大概從2月開始明顯出現;你看到12月和1月即期不多,而合約仍然撐得住。一旦即期開始進來,你就開始看到業務的變動率;我想這在你看到4月也在下滑時就很明顯。
Ariel Rosa - Analyst
Ariel Rosa - Analyst
Okay, got it. Understood. As a second question, I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about your approach to AI. It sounds like youâre getting some traction there. Thatâs great. Obviously people have responded well to that in the market. Help us understand what it is that RXO is doing different. Like, how much of your approach to AI is built off of proprietary technology, how quickly you expect it to scale, et cetera. If you could just give us more color there, I think itâd be helpful.
好的,了解。明白。第二個問題,我希望你能多談一點你們對AI的做法。聽起來你們在那方面有一些進展。這很好。顯然市場對此反應也不錯。請幫我們理解RXO做了哪些不同的事。例如,你們的AI方法有多少是建立在自有(proprietary)技術上、你們預期多快能擴大規模等等。如果你能多補充一些細節,我想會很有幫助。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Iâll let Jared come over to the top on some of the tools. You know, I mean, when you look at our AI strategy, itâs built for who we are. Itâs built to be able to adjust with whatâs going on in the market. Itâs built tailor specific for our customers, especially large enterprise customers. Weâve built new tools as we start to ramp up the SMB parts of our business. Weâre building things in there on the carrier side.
好的。我先請Jared來談一些工具面的內容。你知道,當你看我們的AI策略,它是為了我們的定位而打造的。它被設計成能隨市場狀況調整。它也被設計成能為我們的客戶量身打造,尤其是大型企業客戶。隨著我們開始加速中小企業(SMB)業務的部分,我們也打造了新工具。我們也在承運商端建置一些東西。
Anything that is customer, carrier, or employee facing, we view as secret sauce, and those things we really want to lean in and use proprietary tools. If thereâs something that we view that is not as critical, then weâre open to using some things off the shelf there.
任何面向客戶、承運商或員工的東西,我們都視為「祕密武器」,而這些我們真的希望加大投入並使用自有工具。如果有些東西我們認為沒那麼關鍵,那我們也願意使用一些現成的方案。
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Ariel, to build on what Drew was saying the four key pillars that we talk about have remained consistent between volume, margin, productivity, and service. You know, weâre a tech-enabled organization, but as we highlighted earlier on, itâs all about the customer relationship, itâs all about the carrier relationship, and then how do we leverage technology in a way that makes our people more productive?
Ariel,延續Drew剛才說的,我們談的四個關鍵支柱在運量、毛利率、生产力與服務之間一直保持一致。你知道,我們是一個以科技賦能的組織,但如同我們先前強調的,一切都關乎客戶關係,也關乎承運商關係,然後是我們如何以讓員工更有效率的方式來運用科技?
We saw our productivity was up 15% over the last 12 months, measured by loads per person per day. Weâre really excited about some new tools that weâve launched recently, including our agentic AI email spot post functionality, where weâve seen significant traction over the last couple of months. You know, thatâs still in the very early innings.
我們的生產力在過去12個月提升了15%,以每人每日處理的貨載數來衡量。我們對近期推出的一些新工具感到非常興奮,包括我們的代理式(agentic)AI電子郵件即期(spot)刊登功能,過去幾個月我們看到顯著的採用與成效。你知道,這仍然還在非常早期的階段。
As we go ahead and start to broadly deploy these tools across the organization and we think about the opportunity to decouple volume growth from headcount, make our people that much more productive, it speaks to the long-term contribution margins that are attributable to AI and technology.
當我們開始在整個組織更廣泛地部署這些工具,並思考將運量成長與人力編制脫鉤的機會、讓員工更有效率時,這也反映出AI與科技對長期貢獻毛利(contribution margins)的提升。
Operator
Operator
Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.
Ken Hoexter,美國銀行。
Ken Hoexter - Analyst
Ken Hoexter - Analyst
Hey, great. Good morning, Drew and team. You set the scale for EBITDA outlook for 2Q. Thoughts on maybe seasonality, pace of growth, maybe a little further out, third quarter, full year. Then Jared, on that last point as you get more automated on quotes, thoughts on staffing. I donât think you disclose head count, but how are you thinking about early efficiency gains on reshaping the workforce?
嗨,很好。早安,Drew和團隊。你們給了第二季EBITDA展望的區間。想請教對季節性、成長步調,或再往後一點看第三季、全年有什麼想法。另外Jared,延續你剛才那點,當報價更自動化之後,對人力配置有什麼看法?我知道你們不一定揭露人數,但你們如何看待早期效率提升對重塑人力結構的影響?
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
I could start. As you know, Ken, we give an outlook, one quarter at a time, can certainly provide a little color on Q3. Typically, Q3 does decline when compared to Q2 in last mile. Q2 is the strongest quarter of the year from a seasonal perspective. Would certainly say thereâs nothing typical about this year, right?
我可以先說。如你所知,Ken,我們一次只提供一季的展望,但當然可以對第三季提供一些補充說明。通常第三季在最後一哩(last mile)相較第二季會下滑。從季節性角度來看,第二季是一年中最強的一季。但也可以說,今年一點都不典型,對吧?
As Drew just mentioned, starting in Q3, youâll see the full implementation of the contract rates that weâre talking about right now in Q2, which are coming in right now to some extent, low double-digit, mid-teen type increase. Thatâll continue. Volume will be a function not only of the market, but also our successful conversion of the pipeline that weâve talked about.
如Drew剛提到的,從第三季開始,你會看到我們現在在第二季所談的合約運價全面落地;目前已在某種程度上開始反映,屬於低雙位數到中十幾%的增幅。這會持續下去。運量不僅取決於市場,也取決於我們先前談到的管線轉換是否成功。
Managed trends, also implementing new awards in the second half of the year, any sustained increase in demand, including automotive, could be substantially better than that. You know, last year, Q2 to Q3 went down about 15% sequentially. Would certainly reiterate that weâve got a lot of strong momentum in Q2 right now, weâll see. We expect further momentum in Q3. On the, what was the follow-up on technology, Ken?
已管理的趨勢,加上我們也在下半年落實新的得標案,任何需求的持續增加(包括汽車產業)都可能顯著優於此。你知道,去年Q2到Q3按季下滑約15%。我想再次強調,我們目前在Q2有很強的動能,我們再看看。我們預期Q3動能會進一步增強。關於技術方面,Ken,你的追問是什麼?
Ken Hoexter - Analyst
Ken Hoexter - Analyst
Yeah, just your thoughts on staffing, right? As you, quote, "Become more automated," you know, does that, since you donât disclose that count, how do you think about early efficiency gains reshaping that workforce?
對,就是你對人力配置的看法,對吧?當你們所謂「變得更自動化」時,你知道,既然你們不揭露人數,你們如何看待早期的效率提升會如何重塑那個人力結構?
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
If you look at our brokerage headcount Ken, it was down double digits on a year-over-year basis. I think weâve talked earlier in the call about this being a relationship business. Relationships matter in this business. Our people matter to this business. Whatâs gonna happen is theyâre gonna get more productive over time, and the more tools that we implement. The rate that we add heads will not be at the rate as we start to outgrow the market, which weâve said weâll start to outgrow the market around the middle of the year, maybe sooner.
Ken,如果你看我們的經紀業務人數,按年來看是雙位數下降。我想我們在電話會議前面也談到,這是一門關係型的生意。在這個行業裡,關係很重要。我們的人對這門生意很重要。接下來會發生的是,隨著時間推移,以及我們導入更多工具,他們的生產力會提高。當我們開始跑贏市場(我們說過大約在年中、也可能更早開始跑贏)時,我們增加人頭的速度不會跟業務成長的速度一樣快。
Ken Hoexter - Analyst
Ken Hoexter - Analyst
Wonderful. Just one follow-up quickly if I can. The truckload volume improved each month in 1Q. Is that a year-over-year comment? Is that in line with normal seasonal or sequential progression?
太好了。如果可以的話,我再快速追問一個。一季度卡車整車(truckload)運量每個月都有改善。這是指按年(year-over-year)的評論嗎?還是說這符合正常的季節性或按季(sequential)的變化?
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
That comment was with respect to on an absolute basis. Weâve seen improvement within our truckload business every month throughout Q1. Translating into an expectation of a sequential volume increase from Q1 into Q2 from a truckload perspective, driven by the success that weâve had converting that late-stage pipeline. Ken, thatâll then translate to about year-on-year flattish from Q2 in Q2 relative to Q2 last year, which is certainly significantly improved relative to Q1. We then expect to start to resume our outperformance versus the truckload market as early as the middle of the year.
那個評論是就絕對值而言。我們在Q1期間的每個月,都看到我們的整車業務有所改善。從整車角度來看,這轉化為我們預期運量將從Q1到Q2按季增加,主要由於我們在轉化後期銷售管線方面取得的成功所帶動。Ken,這也會轉化為:Q2相較去年Q2大致持平(按年),這相對於Q1當然是顯著改善。然後我們預期最早在年中就會重新開始恢復相對整車市場的超額表現。
Operator
Operator
J. Bruce Chan, Stifel.
J. Bruce Chan,Stifel。
J. Bruce Chan - Equity Analyst
J. Bruce Chan - Equity Analyst
Yeah, thanks. Morning, everybody. Maybe just to follow up on that headcount productivity question. You know, it seems to me like youâre in a better position to implement a lot of these tech and AI programs now that the tech stacks are more harmonized. You listed a lot of different initiatives. You know, maybe if you could just help us to quantify the impact of those. Any KPIs that youâre seeing in terms of productivity or GP per head or maybe margin contribution that you can give us to help kind of illustrate what the impacts might be to the bottom line.
好的,謝謝。各位早安。我想跟進一下剛才那個人頭生產力的問題。你知道,在技術堆疊更趨一致之後,看起來你們現在更有條件去推動很多這些科技與AI計畫。你們列了很多不同的倡議。你知道,也許你們可以幫我們量化一下這些的影響。你們是否看到任何KPI,例如生產力、每人GP(毛利)或可能的毛利率貢獻等,可以提供給我們,幫助我們說明這些對最終獲利可能帶來的影響?
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Weisfeld - Chief Strategy Officer
Hey, Bruce, itâs Jared. On the productivity side, weâre seeing some real tangible benefits. Productivity in the second quarter was up about 15% when compared to the prior 12 months benefiting from those investments.
嗨,Bruce,我是Jared。在生產力方面,我們看到一些非常具體、可衡量的效益。第二季的生產力相較前12個月約提升了15%,受益於這些投資。
Iâll go back to those four key pillars that we talked about earlier in terms of how we think about our technology strategy across volume, margin, productivity, and service. The one tool that weâve been talking about that weâre quite excited about is some of the benefits that weâre seeing from the agentic AI email spot code functionality. Not only does it enable incremental volume and margin opportunity, it comes with a pretty strong contribution margin to the business.
我再回到我們先前談到的四個關鍵支柱,也就是我們如何看待技術策略在運量、毛利率、生產力與服務這四個面向的布局。我們一直在談、也相當興奮的一個工具,是我們從具代理能力(agentic)的AI電子郵件即期(spot)報價代碼功能所看到的一些效益。它不僅能帶來額外的運量與毛利率機會,對業務也具有相當強的貢獻毛利率(contribution margin)。
As we think about scaling the business longer term, decoupling volume growth from headcount, it could really add some pretty strong contribution margins longer term.
當我們思考長期擴大規模、將運量成長與人頭數脫鉤時,長期來看它確實可能帶來相當可觀的貢獻毛利率。
Operator
Operator
I would now like to hand the call back to Drew Wilkerson for closing remarks.
我現在想把電話交回給Drew Wilkerson做結語。
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Drew Wilkerson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ellie. RXO has significant momentum across all of our lines of business. Our full truckload volume improved every month of the first quarter. Weâre winning more spots, projects, and mini bids thanks to the exceptional service we provide, and our spot mix increased by 500 basis points sequentially in the first quarter and 600 basis points year over year.
謝謝你,Ellie。RXO在我們所有業務線上都展現出顯著動能。我們的整車運量在第一季每個月都有改善。憑藉我們提供的卓越服務,我們贏得了更多即期(spot)業務、專案與小型投標(mini bids);同時,我們的即期占比在第一季按季提升了500個基點,按年提升了600個基點。
Weâve had an outstanding bid season and expect full year contract rates to increase by high single digits year over year. We expect to resume our market outperformance when it comes to brokerage volume as early as the middle of this year. In complementary services, we continue to win. Weâve secured more than $100 million in new managed transportation awards, and our new Middle Mile Solutions offering has already built a $70 million pipeline in just its first few months.
我們的投標季表現非常出色,並預期全年合約運價將按年上升高個位數百分比。我們預期最早在今年年中,就能在經紀運量方面恢復跑贏市場。在互補性服務方面,我們持續贏單。我們已取得超過1億美元的新管理式運輸(managed transportation)得標案,而我們新的Middle Mile Solutions產品在推出的頭幾個月就已建立了7,000萬美元的管線。
Our technology is a force multiplier. We put agentic AI in action, and our proprietary tools, including our AI spot agent, have already delivered increases in both volume and gross profit per load for our reps. Weâre at the beginning of the recovery, and weâre uniquely positioned to be a major winner. RXO has significant long-term earnings power. Thank you for your time today, and we look forward to seeing you at the upcoming conferences.
我們的技術是一個力量倍增器。我們已將具代理能力(agentic)的AI投入實際運作,而我們的專有工具(包括AI即期代理)已為我們的業務代表帶來運量與每趟載運毛利(gross profit per load)的提升。我們正處於復甦的起點,而且我們具備獨特優勢,有望成為主要贏家。RXO具備顯著的長期獲利能力。感謝各位今天撥冗參與,我們期待在即將到來的各場會議上與各位見面。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for attending todayâs call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.
感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛線。再見。