RXO Inc (RXO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the RXO Q3 2025 earnings conference call and Webcast. My name is Michael, and I will be your operator for today's call. Please note that this conference is being recorded. During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements with the meaning of federal securities laws, which by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

歡迎參加 RXO 2025 年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播。我叫邁克爾，我將擔任您今天通話的接線員。請注意，本次會議正在錄影。在本次電話會議中，本公司將做出一些符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述本質上涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。

A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. You should refer to a copy of the company's earnings release in the Investor Relations section on the company's website for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures the company uses when discussing its results.

本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及獲利報告中都包含了可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的因素的討論。有關公司在討論其業績時使用的前瞻性聲明、披露和非公認會計準則財務指標的調節等更多信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分中的公司盈利報告副本。

I will now turn the call over to Drew Wilkerson. Mr. Wilkerson, you may now begin.

現在我將把通話交給德魯·威爾克森。威爾克森先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today. I'm here in Charlotte with RXO's Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Harris; and Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld. This morning, we announced our third quarter results. Year-over-year, overall brokerage volume grew 1%, driven by less than truckload volume growth of 43%. Brokerage truckload volume declined by 11% year-over-year, but increased by 1% sequentially.

各位早安。感謝您今天的參與。我現在在夏洛特，與 RXO 的財務長 Jamie Harris 和首席策略長 Jared Weisfeld 在一起。今天上午，我們公佈了第三季業績。與去年同期相比，整體經紀業務量成長了 1%，其中卡車運輸業務量增加了 43%。經紀卡車運輸量年減 11%，但較上季增加 1%。

Last mile stops grew by 12% year-over-year, the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and we added cash to the balance sheet and had 56% adjusted free cash flow conversion. Brokerage gross margin was 13.5% and RXO's EBITDA was $32 million in the quarter, below our expectations. Contrary to our assumptions on last quarter's call, the market tightened in September.

最後一公里配送業務年增 12%，連續第五個季度實現兩位數成長，我們增加了資產負債表上的現金，調整後的自由現金流轉換率為 56%。經紀業務毛利率為 13.5%，RXO 的 EBITDA 為 3,200 萬美元，低於我們的預期。與上季電話會議的假設相反，9 月市場趨緊。

Capacity began exiting in certain regions driven primarily by regulatory changes and enforcement. About 2/3 of RXO's freight in the quarter came from regions where buy rates increased, and this impacted our results. BA rates increased faster than our contractual sale rates with no meaningful corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities.

受監管變化和執法力度加大，某些地區的產能開始退出。本季 RXO 約 2/3 的貨運量來自採購價格上漲的地區，影響了我們的業績。BA 利率上漲速度超過了我們的合約銷售利率，但增值現貨機會卻沒有相應顯著增長。

We take our commitments to our customers very seriously and continue to honor the service commitments we made in the quarter. Industry tender rejections in the third quarter were 6%, RXO were just 2%. This build trust and strengthened relationship with our customers, and you can see the impact of our efforts in recognition we recently received from blue-chip customers, including United States cold storage, Owens Corning and Altonium, reliably serving our customers' freight at this point in the market cycle will position to win more spot loads in mini bids as the market recovers.

我們非常重視對客戶的承諾，並將繼續履行本季所做的服務承諾。第三季產業招標被拒率為 6%，而 RXO 僅為 2%。這有助於建立信任，加強與客戶的關係。從我們最近獲得的藍籌客戶的認可中，您可以看到我們努力的成效，這些客戶包括美國冷藏公司、歐文斯科寧公司和奧托尼姆公司。在當前市場週期中，我們能夠可靠地為客戶的貨物運輸提供服務，這將使我們在市場復甦時，在小型競標中贏得更多現貨貨物。

Now I'd like to provide you with the details on our fourth quarter expectations, including EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million. The biggest driver of the sequential decline is volume weakness within our last mile business, which is counter to typical seasonality. While we posted another quarter of impressive double-digit stock growth in the third quarter, since Labor Day, we've seen a weakening in demand for big and bulky goods. Jamie and Jared will discuss this in more detail later in the call.

現在我想向大家詳細介紹我們第四季的預期，包括 EBITDA 在 2,000 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元之間。導致環比下降的最大因素是我們最後一公里業務的銷量疲軟，這與典型的季節性規律相反。雖然我們在第三季度再次實現了令人印象深刻的兩位數庫存成長，但自勞動節以來，我們看到對大型笨重商品的需求有所減弱。Jamie 和 Jared 稍後會在通話中更詳細地討論這個問題。

In brokerage, we expect the squeeze dynamic to intensify into the fourth quarter. At this point in the cycle, roughly 70% of our truckload brokerage business is contract primarily with enterprise customers. So the squeeze on our gross profit per load has been acute. In addition, we have not yet seen a meaningful increase in accretive spot opportunities.

在經紀業務方面，我們預計擠壓局面將在第四季度加劇。在目前的週期階段，我們大約 70% 的整車運輸經紀業務主要與企業客戶簽訂合約。因此，我們每趟貨運的毛利都受到了嚴重擠壓。此外，我們尚未看到增值現貨機會出現實質成長。

When demand ultimately recovers, spot loads will increase, which will be accretive to gross profit per load helping to offset the higher cost of purchased transportation. The big question is whether these changes to the industry capacity are permanent. If the regulatory changes hold and enforcement continues, we believe a significant amount of truckload capacity will permanently exit the market.

當需求最終恢復時，現貨貨運量將會增加，這將增加每趟貨運的毛利，有助於抵銷購買運輸成本的增加。最大的問題是，這些產業產能的變化是否是永久性的。如果監管政策的改變得以維持，執法力道持續加大，我們認為大量的整車運輸能力將永久退出市場。

This will help improve the overall safety of the industry as well as help combat theft and fraud. This has the potential to be one of the largest structural changes to truckload supply since deregulation and could result in a higher for longer freight environment. RXO is well positioned to capitalize on that if it occurs because of our larger scale as the third largest provider of broker transportation.

這將有助於提高整個行業的安全性，並有助於打擊盜竊和詐欺行為。這有可能成為自放鬆管制以來卡車運輸供應領域最大的結構性變化之一，並可能導致運輸成本更高、運輸時間更長的貨運環境。如果這種情況發生，RXO 憑藉其作為第三大經紀運輸服務提供者的規模優勢，將能夠很好地利用這一機會。

However, for a sustained freight market recovery, we need increased demand for goods, and we aren't seeing that yet. Demand trends weakened throughout the third quarter and remain below typical seasonality. In fact, during the month of August, cash freight shipments reached their lowest level since 2020. We continue to take strategic actions to position RXO for both the short term and the long term.

然而，要實現貨運市場的持續復甦，我們需要增加對商品的需求，但目前還沒有看到這種情況。第三季需求趨勢減弱，仍低於典型的季節性水準。事實上，8 月份現金貨運量達到了 2020 年以來的最低水準。我們將繼續採取策略行動，為 RXO 的短期和長期發展做好準備。

We've greatly improved RXO cost structure throughout the downturn and took additional action in the third quarter. Since we've become a public stand-alone company, we've removed more than $125 million of cost. That is a significant improvement to our cost structure. Right now, the impact is being masked by the market-driven declines in gross profit per load. We're looking at our actions holistically.

在經濟低迷時期，我們大幅改善了 RXO 的成本結構，並在第三季採取了進一步措施。自從我們成為一家獨立的上市公司以來，我們已經節省了超過 1.25 億美元的成本。這對我們的成本結構來說是一項重大改進。目前，這種影響被市場驅動的每次運輸毛利潤下降所掩蓋。我們正在從整體上審視我們的行動。

Some examples of our initiatives include investing in artificial intelligence that frees up time for our team to focus on our customers' most challenging problems, optimizing our real estate footprint, and rightsizing our teams to ensure the optimal balance between current demand and ensuring we're staffed for growth. Given the sustained soft freight market conditions, we've been moving quickly to streamline our costs within our brokerage business.

我們的一些舉措包括投資人工智慧，讓我們的團隊有更多時間專注於解決客戶面臨的最具挑戰性的問題；優化我們的房地產佈局；以及合理調整團隊規模，以確保在滿足當前需求和確保我們有足夠的人員應對增長之間取得最佳平衡。鑑於貨運市場持續疲軟，我們一直在迅速採取措施，精簡經紀業務的成本。

As an example, in the third quarter, brokerage headcount declined by approximately 15% year-over-year. Our actions to date, including our investments in technology, have already yielded substantial productivity gains in brokerage. Productivity increased by 19% over the last 12-months and by 38% over the last two-years. These are sticky changes to our business that will yield benefits in the future.

例如，第三季經紀業務人員數量較去年同期下降約 15%。我們迄今為止採取的行動，包括對科技的投資，已經為經紀業務帶來了顯著的生產力提升。過去 12 個月生產力提高了 19%，過去兩年提高了 38%。這些是我們業務中一些長期存在的變革，但未來將會帶來利益。

I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term because of five things: our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology and ability to generate cash. First, our much more efficient cost structure will provide us with significant operating leverage when the market improves.

我對 RXO 長期實現超額獲利成長的能力仍然充滿信心，原因有五點：我們改進的成本結構、更大的規模、持續專注於獲利成長、一流的技術以及創造現金的能力。首先，我們更有效率的成本結構將在市場好轉時為我們提供顯著的營運槓桿。

Second, we have a much larger scale. Scale is a differentiator in brokerage, and I'll highlight two examples. Scale enables us to purchase transportation more effectively. Our common technology platform is helping us capitalize on additional power lines while providing the best truck for each load. During the third quarter, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to last quarter, and approximately 30 to 50 basis points better when compared to the period before the carrier migration.

其次，我們的規模要大得多。規模是經紀業務的一大優勢，我將重點介紹兩個例子。規模使我們能夠更有效地採購運輸服務。我們通用的技術平台幫助我們利用額外的電力線路，同時為每批貨物提供最佳的卡車。第三季度，我們的增量購買利率優惠與上一季類似，與營運商遷移之前的時期相比，優惠幅度約為 30 至 50 個基點。

Those improvements were more than offset by the September market tightening I mentioned earlier. We expect our buy rate favorability to further improve as we increase productivity across the organization. We remain confident that over time, our favorability will increase to approximately 100 basis points. Another benefit of scale is a decreased cost per load.

這些改善都被我之前提到的9月市場收緊所抵銷了。我們預計，隨著公司整體生產力的提高，我們的購買意願將進一步增強。我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的有利度將增加到大約 100 個基點。規模經濟的另一個好處是降低了每次裝載的成本。

This was one of the guiding principles of the Coyote acquisition, and we achieved results in this area. Since our spin, our cost per load has decreased by more than 20%. We're effectively leveraging our increased scale and technology platform, and we'll continue to bring down our cost to serve. The third driver of long-term value creation for RXO is profitable growth.

這是收購 Coyote 的指導原則之一，我們在這一領域取得了成果。自從我們進行改革以來，每次裝載的成本降低了 20% 以上。我們正在有效利用不斷擴大的規模和技術平台，並將繼續降低服務成本。RXO長期價值創造的第三個驅動因素是獲利成長。

This is part of our DNA, and we have continued opportunities to drive future growth. In addition to growing our core truckload business, we will also grow by offering valuable premium services that deepen relationships with customers. We're also in the early stages of growing more consistent sources of EBITDA, including managed transportation and LTL because they reliably bring in strong and more consistent profits through market cycles.

這是我們基因的一部分，我們將繼續有機會推動未來的成長。除了發展我們的核心整車運輸業務外，我們還將透過提供有價值的優質服務來深化與客戶的關係，從而實現成長。我們也正處於發展更穩定的 EBITDA 來源的早期階段，包括運輸管理和零擔運輸，因為它們在市場週期中能夠可靠地帶來強勁且更穩定的利潤。

In the third quarter, we grew LTL volume by 43%, while LTL volume has grown significantly, it only represents about 10% of total brokerage gross profit dollars. We have a long runway in LTL. We have an exceptional track record when it comes to growth. Over the five-years prior to the Coyote acquisition, RXO grew total volume by 72% organically and 11% CAGR.

第三季度，零擔貨運量成長了 43%，雖然零擔貨運量成長顯著，但僅佔經紀業務總毛利的 10% 左右。我們在零擔運輸領域還有很長的路要走。我們在成長方面擁有卓越的業績記錄。在被 Coyote 收購之前的五年裡，RXO 的總銷量實現了 72% 的有機成長和 11% 的複合年增長率。

Fourth, our technology is the differentiator, customers and carriers constantly tell us that our tech is the best and easiest to use in the industry. We invest heavily in this area, spending over $100 million every year. This technology powered by AI and machine learning helps our employees be more productive, freeing up their time to focus on our customers and carriers.

第四，我們的技術是我們的差異化優勢，客戶和營運商不斷告訴我們，我們的技術是業界最好、最容易使用的。我們在這個領域投入大量資金，每年支出超過1億美元。這項由人工智慧和機器學習驅動的技術可以幫助我們的員工提高工作效率，讓他們有更多時間專注於我們的客戶和承運商。

It also enhances our customer experience and drives our pricing engines. And fifth, our asset-light business model enables us to produce strong cash flow. In the quarter, despite the soft market conditions, our adjusted free cash flow conversion was 56%. We remain confident in delivering 40% to 60% conversion across market cycles.

它還能提升客戶體驗，並驅動我們的定價機制。第五，我們輕資產的商業模式使我們能夠產生強勁的現金流。本季，儘管市場環境疲軟，但我們調整後的自由現金流轉換率仍達到 56%。我們仍有信心在各個市場週期內實現 40% 至 60% 的轉換率。

In conclusion, although we're in a challenging market environment, and we're not satisfied with our near-term performance, we've taken decisive strategic actions. We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade plus. We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology and deep customer relationships. All of this provides RXO with a unique algorithm for long-term growth.

總之，儘管我們身處充滿挑戰的市場環境，並且對近期業績並不滿意，但我們已經採取了果斷的策略行動。我們始終專注於過去十多年來讓我們成功的那些因素。我們提供卓越的服務、全面的解決方案、尖端的技術和深厚的客戶關係。所有這些都為 RXO 提供了實現長期成長的獨特演算法。

Now Jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail.

現在傑米將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Drew, and good morning. Let's review our third quarter performance in more detail. Our results were slightly below our outlook. The quarter, we reported $1.4 billion in total revenue, gross margin of 16.5%, adjusted EBITDA of $32 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.3%. Gross margin and adjusted EBITDA were primarily impacted by the increase in cost of transportation, further broad-based demand weakness and continued headwinds in the automotive sector.

謝謝你，德魯，早安。讓我們更詳細地回顧一下第三季的業績。我們的業績略低於預期。本季度，我們報告的總營收為 14 億美元，毛利率為 16.5%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,200 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 2.3%。毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 主要受到運輸成本增加、需求全面疲軟以及汽車產業持續逆風的影響。

As Drew mentioned, cost of transportation increased without a corresponding increase in cell rates or accretive spot opportunities. This caused a margin squeeze on our contractual brokerage volume during the month of September. Jared will provide more details later in the call. Automotive was a continued headwind and represented an approximately $5 million year-over-year margin impact in the quarter.

正如德魯所提到的那樣，運輸成本增加了，但蜂巢價格或增值機會卻沒有相應增加。這導致我們9月的合約經紀業務量出現利潤率壓縮。Jared稍後將在通話中提供更多細節。汽車產業持續構成不利因素，導致本季同比利潤率下降約 500 萬美元。

As we discussed over the past two quarters, this freight is time-critical and with high service requirements and typically carries a higher-than-average gross margin with strong flow-through to EBITDA. Below the line, our interest expense was $9 million. For the quarter, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.01. You can find a bridge to adjusted EBITDA on slide 7 of the earnings presentation.

正如我們在過去兩個季度中所討論的，這種貨運對時間要求很高，服務要求也很高，通常毛利率高於平均水平，對 EBITDA 的影響也很大。在帳面淨額中，我們的利息支出為 900 萬美元。本季度，我們調整後的每股收益為 0.01 美元。您可以在收益報告的第 7 頁找到調整後 EBITDA 的相關說明。

Now I'd like to give an overview of our performance within our lines of business. Brokerage revenue was $1 billion and represented 70% of our total revenue. Overall, brokerage volume growth was 1% in the quarter. We had strong LTO growth of 43% which was offset by 11% decline in full truckload volume. The year-over-year decline in truckload volume was impacted by overall demand weakness, softness in the automotive sector and efforts we undertook with customers to optimus price, volume and service.

現在我想概述一下我們各業務線的業績。經紀業務收入為 10 億美元，占我們總收入的 70%。本季整體經紀業務量成長了1%。LTO銷量強勁成長43%，但整車銷量下降11%抵銷了這一成長。卡車運輸量年減，受到整體需求疲軟、汽車產業低迷以及我們與客戶共同努力優化價格、數量和服務的影響。

Given the market tightened in September, brokerage gross margin was down 90 basis points sequentially to 13.5% at the low end of our outlook. Complementary services revenue in the quarter of $442 million increased by 5% year-over-year and was 30% of our total revenue. Gross margin within complementary services was 21.3%.

鑑於9月市場趨緊，經紀業務毛利率季減90個基點至13.5%，處於我們預期範圍的下限。本季配套服務收入為 4.42 億美元，年增 5%，佔總營收的 30%。配套服務的毛利率為 21.3%。

Now let's discuss each line of business within complementary services. Managed Transportation generated $137 million of revenue in the quarter, down 9% year-over-year. Managed transportation continues to be impacted by lower automotive volume in our managed expedite business. Our last mile business generated $305 million in revenue in the quarter, up 14% year-over-year. Last mile stock grew about 12%.

現在讓我們來討論一下互補服務中的各個業務線。該季度運輸管理業務的營收為 1.37 億美元，年減 9%。在我們的專車運輸業務中，汽車運輸量下降持續影響專車運輸業務。本季度，我們的最後一公里業務創造了 3.05 億美元的收入，年增 14%。最後一公里庫存增加了約 12%。

However, over the past few months, we have seen a weakening in the big and bulky demand. This trend has worsened into the fourth quarter. Let's now discuss cash. Please refer to slide 8. Adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter was $18 million, yielding a strong 56% conversion from adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, our semiannual interest payment is not due until the fourth quarter, which benefited our third quarter conversion. Year-to-date, our conversion is 50%.

然而，在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到大型笨重物品的需求減弱。這一趨勢在第四季進一步惡化。現在我們來談談現金。請參考第8頁投影片。第三季調整後自由現金流為 1,800 萬美元，與調整後 EBITDA 相比，轉換率高達 56%。再次提醒，我們的半年利息支出要到第四季才到期，這對我們第三季的轉換有利。今年迄今為止，我們的轉換率為 50%。

We're very pleased with our conversion at this point in the freight cycle. Given our asset-light business model, we remain confident in a 40% to 60% conversion over the long term and across market cycles. We ended the quarter with $25 million of cash on the balance sheet which increased by $7 million sequentially, with no change to the revolver balance.

我們對目前貨運週期中的轉型非常滿意。鑑於我們輕資產的商業模式，我們仍然有信心在長期內以及跨越市場週期實現 40% 至 60% 的轉換率。本季末，資產負債表上的現金為 2,500 萬美元，比上一季增加了 700 萬美元，循環信貸餘額沒有變化。

We grew our cash balance despite $9 million of restructuring, transaction and integration cash outflows. As you can see on slide 9, our liquidity position continues to be strong with $590 million of total committed liquidity, of which approximately $375 million is currently available. Quarter end, net leverage was 2.3 times LTM bank adjusted EBITDA, up slightly when compared to the prior quarter.

儘管有 900 萬美元的重組、交易和整合現金流出，我們的現金餘額仍然成長了。如您在投影片 9 中看到的，我們的流動性狀況依然強勁，承諾的總流動性為 5.9 億美元，其中目前約有 3.75 億美元可用。季末，淨槓桿比率為過去12個月銀行調整後EBITDA的2.3倍，與上一季相比略有上升。

I'd now like to talk about the actions we've taken to optimize our cost structure. We've taken actions to achieve more than $125 million of annualized expense savings, including $65 million of post-spin cost and $60 million of cost synergies related to the Coyote acquisition. Today, we announced that we're taking additional actions that would yield more than $30 million of incremental annualized savings.

現在我想談談我們為優化成本結構所採取的措施。我們已採取措施，實現了超過 1.25 億美元的年度支出節省，其中包括 6500 萬美元的分拆後成本和與 Coyote 收購相關的 6000 萬美元的成本協同效應。今天，我們宣布將採取額外措施，預計每年可節省超過 3,000 萬美元。

Collectively, this means a total reduction in annualized expenses over the last three-years of more than $155 million. We're optimizing our cost structure, operating more efficiently and automating key processes. Now let's discuss our expectations for the fourth quarter. Our outlook reflects a fluid macroeconomic environment with weakening freight demand and a continued increase in the cost of purchase transportation.

總的來說，這意味著過去三年年度支出總共減少了超過 1.55 億美元。我們正在優化成本結構，提高營運效率，並實現關鍵流程的自動化。現在讓我們來討論一下我們對第四季的預期。我們的展望反映了宏觀經濟環境的波動，貨運需求疲軟，採購運輸成本持續上漲。

For the combined company in the fourth quarter, we expect to generate between $20 million and $30 million of adjusted EBITDA. While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that has been more than offset by higher cost of purchase transportation. We are also expecting the decline in complementary services, driven by slowing demand in last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. Jared will provide more details on our outlook shortly.

預計合併後的公司在第四季將產生 2,000 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。雖然我們通常會在第四季度看到經紀業務調整後的 EBITDA 環比增長，但這已被更高的採購運輸成本所抵消。我們也預計配套服務將會減少，這是由於最後一公里需求放緩所致，這與正常的季節性規律相反。Jared稍後將提供更多關於我們前景的細節。

Slide 14 includes our fourth quarter modeling assumptions. There are a few things I want to highlight. We expect CapEx of approximately $20 million, we're tracking towards the low end of our previously discussed $65 million to $75 million outlook for the full year 2025. For 2026, we continue to expect CapEx to be between $45 million and $55 million, down materially year-over-year.

第 14 頁包含了我們第四季的建模假設。我想重點強調幾點。我們預計資本支出約為 2,000 萬美元，正朝著先前討論過的 2025 年全年 6,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元預期值的低端邁進。我們預計 2026 年資本支出將在 4,500 萬美元至 5,500 萬美元之間，年比大幅下降。

As we discussed, we're taking additional cost actions that will result in more than $30 million of annualized expense savings. In conjunction with these actions, we expect fourth quarter restructuring, transaction and integration expenses to be approximately $15 million. Below the line, we expect net interest expense of approximately $9 million an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30% and fully diluted shares of $170 million.

正如我們所討論的那樣，我們正在採取額外的成本控制措施，這將帶來超過 3000 萬美元的年度支出節省。伴隨這些舉措，我們預計第四季重組、交易和整合費用約為 1500 萬美元。在財務報表下方，我們預計淨利息支出約為 900 萬美元，調整後的有效稅率約為 30%，完全稀釋後的股份為 1.7 億美元。

To summarize, recent accelerated capacity exits are putting upward pressure on our cost of purchase transportation and squeezing our contractual brokerage gross margin. This impacts near-term profitability given our large footprint of contract business with Tier 1 shippers. We are reliably servicing our customers' freight and are well positioned to win spot opportunities in special projects when demand recovers.

總而言之，近期加速退出市場導致我們的採購運輸成本上升，並擠壓了我們的合約經紀毛利率。鑑於我們與一級貨運商簽訂了大量的合約業務，這將影響近期的獲利能力。我們可靠地為客戶的貨運提供服務，並且在需求恢復時，我們已做好充分準備，贏得特殊項目的零星機會。

Longer term, as we think about the broader macro economy, we do see positive developments such as lower interest rates, new tax legislation domestic investment announcements and improving clarity on trade. Lower interest rates specifically can spur freight activity in many rate sensitive industries such as the housing sector.

從長遠來看，當我們考慮更廣泛的宏觀經濟時，我們確實看到了一些積極的發展，例如利率下降、新的稅收立法、國內投資公告以及貿易前景的明朗化。較低的利率尤其能夠刺激許多對利率敏感的行業（例如住房行業）的貨運活動。

As an example, according to the American Trucking Association, every new home built requires between 6 and 10 truckloads at Giles to be shipped. Mortgage rates recently reached 12-month lows and any recovery in the housing market would be positive for ground transportation and RXO. We are closely monitoring the macro environment and are positioned to benefit when demand strengthens.

例如，據美國卡車運輸協會稱，每建造一棟新房，就需要從吉爾斯運送 6 到 10 車貨物。抵押貸款利率最近達到了 12 個月以來的最低點，住房市場的任何復甦都將對地面交通和 RXO 產生積極影響。我們正密切關注宏觀環境，並已做好準備，在需求增強時從中受益。

Now I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Strategy Officer, Jerry Weisfeld, who will talk in more detail about our results and our outlook.

現在我想把發言權交給我們的首席策略長傑瑞·韋斯菲爾德，他將更詳細地談論我們的業績和前景。

Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. As I typically do, I'll start with an overview of our brokerage performance in the quarter. To make the comparisons more useful for you, I'll give you combined numbers that include Coyote's results in the prior period. Brokerage volume in the quarter was up 1% year-over-year, outpacing the Cass Freight Index. LTL volume increased by a strong 43% year-over-year.

謝謝你，傑米，大家早安。按照慣例，我將先概述我們經紀業務在本季的業績。為了讓比較對您更有幫助，我將提供包含 Coyote 在前一時期成績的綜合數據。本季經紀業務量年增 1%，超過了卡斯貨運指數。零擔貨運量年增 43%。

LTO represented 31% of brokerage volume in the quarter, up 900 basis points year-over-year and down slightly from the second quarter. Truckload volume was down 11% year-over-year and represented 69% of brokerage volume, up 100 basis points sequentially. Similar to last quarter, truckload volume was impacted by a decline in automotive efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume and service and broader market weakness.

LTO 在本季佔經紀業務量的 31%，較去年同期成長 900 個基點，但比第二季略有下降。卡車運輸量年減 11%，佔經紀業務量的 69%，較上季上升 100 個基點。與上一季類似，由於我們與客戶共同努力優化價格、數量和服務，以及更廣泛的市場疲軟，汽車行業的運輸量有所下降，這對整車運輸量造成了影響。

From a vertical perspective, automotive volume was down 22% year-over-year. In the industrial and manufacturing vertical, encouragingly, we saw a slight pickup sequentially, which was largely driven by special projects. Industrial manufacturing volume declined by 3% year-over-year. Contract volume was 71% of our overall truckload volume in the quarter.

從垂直角度來看，汽車銷量較去年同期下降了 22%。在工業和製造業領域，令人鼓舞的是，我們看到環比略有回升，這主要由特殊項目推動。工業製造業產量較去年同期下降3%。本季合約貨運量占我們整體卡車貨運量的 71%。

Contract business declined by 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. Spot represented 29% of our truckload volume in the quarter, up 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. This was partly tied to the Coyote technology integration. As we migrated shippers to RXO Connect from Azuca, we benefited from an increase in API connectivity.

合約業務季減 200 個基點，較去年同期下降 100 個基點。本季現貨運輸量占我們整車運輸量的 29%，較上季成長 200 個基點，較去年同期成長 100 個基點。這部分與 Coyote 技術的整合有關。隨著我們將托運人從 Azuca 遷移到 RXO Connect，我們受益於 API 連接性的提高。

This enhanced connectivity will also benefit the combined organization when the freight market eventually recovers. However, given the weakening demand environment, the spot opportunities were less robust when compared to the second quarter and not enough to offset the squeeze on our contractual book of business.

這種增強的互聯互通也將使合併後的公司在貨運市場最終復甦時受益。然而，鑑於需求環境疲軟，現貨機會與第二季度相比有所減弱，不足以抵消我們合約業務受到的擠壓。

Before reviewing our financial performance and market conditions in more detail, I'd like to talk more about some of the technology offerings that we've rolled out in the quarter. We delivered technology that drives improvements across four key pillars. Volume, margin, productivity and service. We've been developing and enhancing our artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for years, utilizing our proprietary data.

在更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績和市場狀況之前，我想先多談談我們在本季推出的一些技術產品。我們提供的技術能夠推動四大關鍵領域的改善。銷量、利潤率、生產力和服務。多年來，我們一直在利用我們專有的數據，開發和增強我們的人工智慧和機器學習能力。

During the quarter, we made progress further enhancing our AI capabilities across each pillar. We enhanced our proprietary and differentiated pricing model, which leverages the combined data of RXO and Coyote. We implemented genic AI solutions to streamline carrier inquiries, reducing manual effort by tens of thousands of hours.

本季度，我們在各個領域進一步提升了人工智慧能力，並取得了進展。我們改進了我們專有的差異化定價模型，該模型利用了 RXO 和 Coyote 的綜合數據。我們實施了基因人工智慧解決方案，簡化了承運商查詢流程，減少了數萬小時的人工工作。

We've deployed AI image solutions in last mile to ensure delivery and install quality, which has the opportunity to fully automate thousands of manual photo validations per day and our engineering teams have been leveraging AI tools that have generated millions of lines of code. We're applying AI to structurally improve the long-term margin profile of the business.

我們在最後一公里部署了 AI 影像解決方案，以確保交付和安裝質量，這有機會每天完全自動化數千張人工照片驗證，我們的工程團隊一直在利用 AI 工具產生數百萬行程式碼。我們正在運用人工智慧技術從結構上改善企業的長期利潤狀況。

Let's now review our brokerage financial performance and market conditions in more detail, starting with revenue per load on slide 10. In the third quarter, truckload revenue per load moderated year-over-year revenue per load, excluding the impact of changes in fuel prices and length of haul increased by 1%. The demand environment also weakened in the third quarter, negatively impacting revenue per load.

現在讓我們更詳細地回顧一下我們經紀業務的財務表現和市場狀況，首先從第 10 頁投影片上的每筆交易收入開始。第三季度，每車貨運收入較去年同期下降，不計燃油價格變動和運輸距離的影響，每車貨運收入成長了 1%。第三季需求環境也出現疲軟，對每次運輸的收入產生了負面影響。

Let's move to slide 11 and discuss brokerage margin performance and current market conditions. As Drew mentioned, the truckload market tightened during the month of September. This squeezed the margins in our contractual book of business resulting in a moderation in gross profit per load and third quarter brokerage gross margin at the low end of our outlook.

讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片，討論一下經紀保證金表現和當前市場狀況。正如德魯所提到的那樣，9月份整車運輸市場趨緊。這擠壓了我們合約業務的利潤空間，導致每筆貨運的毛利下降，第三季經紀業務的毛利率也處於我們預期範圍的下限。

From a market standpoint, buy rates and industry KPIs moved higher in the quarter. Tighter market conditions have been entirely driven by supply side dynamics as overall demand has weakened. This tightening in supply is largely due to enforcement actions related to nondomiciled CDLs and English language proficiency.

從市場角度來看，本季購買率和產業關鍵績效指標均上升。市場供應趨緊完全是由供應面動態變化造成的，因為整體需求已經減弱。供應緊張主要是由於針對非居民商業駕駛執照和英語語言能力的執法行動所致。

From a seasonal standpoint, buy rates typically ease during September. This year, however, the market moved counter seasonally and buy rates moved higher in September. This trend not only continued but was even more pronounced in October despite weaker demand. For the quarter, approximately 2/3 of our freight came from outbound states with buy rate increases.

從季節角度來看，9 月的買入價格通常會下降。然而，今年市場走勢與季節性趨勢相反，9 月買進價格走高。儘管需求疲軟，但這一趨勢不僅沒有停止，而且在10月份更加明顯。本季度，我們約有 2/3 的貨物來自採購價格上漲的出境州。

For example, we saw a cute tightening in California and Texas. Over the last two-months, industry-wide line haul spot rates have moved up by approximately $0.06 per mile with no increase in fill rates or a corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. While RXO continued to procure transportation more favorably than the market, we are not immune to market squeezes given our large contractual book of business with Tier 1 enterprise shippers.

例如，我們看到加州和德克薩斯州出現了可愛的收緊現象。在過去的兩個月裡，整個行業的幹線運輸現貨價格上漲了約每英里 0.06 美元，但裝載率沒有提高，也沒有相應的現貨增值機會增加。儘管 RXO 繼續以比市場更優惠的價格購買運輸服務，但鑑於我們與一級企業托運人簽訂的大量合約業務，我們也無法免受市場擠壓的影響。

As it relates to purchase transportation savings from the Coyote acquisition, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to the prior quarter at approximately 30 to 50 basis points. Our customer and carrier representatives continues to increase their familiarity and productivity within RXO Connect. We remain confident in our ability to achieve 100 basis points of incremental favorability over the long term.

就收購 Coyote 帶來的採購運輸節省而言，我們的增量採購利率優惠與上一季類似，約 30 至 50 個基點。我們的客戶和營運商代表不斷提高對 RXO Connect 的熟悉程度和工作效率。我們仍有信心在長期內實現100個基點的增量優惠。

As a reminder, in tightening market conditions such as the current market, incremental favorability serves as cost avoidance. Turning to slide 12. As we just discussed, truckload gross profit per load moderated in the third quarter, given softer demand and tighter capacity. This market tightness intensified recently. And to put in perspective, our truckload gross profit per load in the month of October was approximately 25% behind our five-year average, excluding COVID highs.

需要提醒的是，在當前這種市場環境趨緊的情況下，增量優惠可以避免成本增加。翻到第12張投影片。正如我們剛才討論的那樣，由於需求疲軟和運力緊張，第三季每車貨運卡車的毛利有所下降。近期市場供應緊張的局面加劇。換個角度來看，10 月我們每車貨運的毛利比五年平均值低了約 25%（不包括新冠疫情期間的高點）。

Incremental margins attributable to a gross profit per load increase are very strong in excess of 80%. Moving to slide 13. RXO LTL brokerage volume continues to outperform the broader LTL market. In the quarter, LTL gross profit per load also improved sequentially. We have many opportunities to continue to grow LTL volume with existing and new customers.

每車毛利增加帶來的增量利潤率非常高，超過 80%。切換到第13張投影片。RXO LTL 貨運代理業務量持續優於整體 LTL 市場。本季度，零擔貨運每車毛利也較上季成長。我們有很多機會透過與現有客戶和新客戶的合作，繼續擴大零擔貨運量。

I'd now like to look forward and give you some more details on our fourth quarter outlook. We're assuming a muted peak season and weak demand trends across all our lines of business. Starting with brokerage. We expect overall volume to decline by a low single-digit percent year-over-year with continued soft truck volume trends partially offset by strong LTL growth.

現在我想展望一下，並向大家詳細介紹我們第四季的展望。我們預期旺季將較為平淡，所有業務線的需求趨勢都將疲軟。從經紀業務開始。我們預期整體貨運量將年減個位數百分比，卡車貨運量持續疲軟的趨勢將被零擔貨運的強勁成長部分抵銷。

Market tightness intensified in the month of October and is expected to persist throughout Q4, pressuring brokerage gross margin and gross profit load. We anticipate that brokerage gross margin will be between 12% and 13%. Let's now talk about complementary services. In Managed Transportation, while business has strong sales momentum and an expanded pipeline managed expedite automotive headwinds continue to impact us in the near term.

10 月市場供應緊張加劇，預計將持續到第四季度，這將對經紀業務的毛利率和毛利潤率構成壓力。我們預計經紀業務毛利率將在 12% 至 13% 之間。現在我們來談談配套服務。在運輸管理領域，雖然業務銷售勢頭強勁，通路不斷擴大，但汽車加急運輸的逆風在短期內仍會持續影響我們。

In last mile, demands within big and bulky have weakened after Labor Day, and we're taking that into account in our outlook. Putting it all together, we expect RXO's fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $20 million to $30 million. While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher cost of transportation.

在最後一公里配送方面，勞動節後大型笨重物品的需求有所減弱，我們在展望未來時已考慮到了這一點。綜合所有因素，我們預計 RXO 第四季調整後 EBITDA 將在 2000 萬美元至 3000 萬美元之間。雖然我們通常會在第四季度看到經紀業務調整後的 EBITDA 環比增長，但這被更高的運輸成本完全抵消了。

We are also expecting a decline in complementary services, driven by slowing demand in last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. Taken together, the impact of these two items is approximately $15 million. Similar to previous quarters, we thought it would also be helpful to share some options underlying our fourth quarter outlook.

我們也預計配套服務將會減少，這是由於最後一公里需求放緩所致，這與正常的季節性規律相反。兩項加起來的影響約為 1500 萬美元。與前幾季類似，我們認為分享一些支撐我們第四季展望的選項也會有所幫助。

The low end of our adjusted EBITDA outlook assumes a further moderation of our truckload gross profit per load. This would include a continued increased buy rates and no corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. The high end of our outlook assumes an increase in our gross profit per load improvement in brokerage gross margin. This would include accretive spot opportunities to offset the squeeze.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 預期下限假設我們的每車貨運毛利潤進一步放緩。這將包括持續增加的買入率，以及相應的增值現貨機會並沒有增加。我們樂觀預期的高端假設是每筆貨運的毛利增加，經紀業務的毛利率提高。這將包括增值現貨機會，以抵消擠壓效應。

To close, we continue to operate in a soft demand environment. On the supply side, continued enforcement of non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency would result in a major structural change to the industry. While our brokerage gross margin is impacted in the near term, assuming enforcement continues, this could result in a sharper inflection when demand eventually recovers.

最後，我們仍然在疲軟的需求環境下運作。在供應方面，繼續執行非居民商業駕駛執照限制和英語語言能力要求，將為產業帶來重大的結構性變化。雖然短期內我們的經紀業務毛利率會受到影響，但假設執法繼續進行，當需求最終恢復時，這可能會導致更明顯的轉折點。

Longer term, this could be a very positive development for large-scale brokerages like RXO and it would strengthen safety, new steps and fraud. Our actions over the last several years have improved RXO's cost structure, which will lead to higher earnings across market cycles. We have taken actions to remove over $125 million of cost.

從長遠來看，這對於像 RXO 這樣的大型經紀公司來說可能是一個非常積極的發展，它將加強安全性、採取新的措施並打擊詐欺。過去幾年，我們採取的措施改善了 RXO 的成本結構，這將使公司在各個市場週期中獲得更高的收益。我們已採取措施，節省了超過 1.25 億美元的成本。

We announced more than $30 million of new cost initiatives today to enhance operational efficiency. We've improved brokerage productivity by 38% over the last two-years. Our brokerage cost per load has decreased by more than 20% -- spend and we are committed to investing in technology, including AI with a strong return on invested capital.

今天，我們宣布了超過 3000 萬美元的新成本控制舉措，以提高營運效率。過去兩年，我們的經紀業務效率提高了 38%。我們的每筆交易經紀成本已下降超過 20%——我們致力於投資技術，包括人工智慧，以獲得強勁的投資回報。

More than ever, shippers want to do business with large-scale brokerages that have the resources, capital and ability to invest throughout market cycles with a continued focus on profitable growth, a more efficient cost structure, larger scale and a cutting-edge technology platform, we are well positioned to drive significant long turnings and free cash flow growth.

如今，貨主比以往任何時候都更希望與擁有資源、資本和能力的大型經紀公司開展業務，這些公司能夠在整個市場週期中進行投資，並持續專注於盈利增長、更高效的成本結構、更大的規模和尖端的技術平台。我們已做好充分準備，推動顯著的長期週轉率和自由現金流成長。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我將把問答環節交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

（操作說明）Stephanie Moore，傑富瑞。

I want to get a sense, I guess, just on the underlying market dynamics and specifically the supply environment, which you've touched on here, but there's a lot of debate on whether these federal enforcement actions will be enough to shift the supply-demand balance. So the first question is, do you think the axis are sustainable and enough to structurally reduce market supply.

我想了解潛在的市場動態，特別是您剛才提到的供應環境，但是關於這些聯邦執法行動是否足以改變供需平衡，還有很多爭論。所以第一個問題是，你認為這些軸心是否可持續，是否足以從結構上減少市場供應。

And then second, if this is, in fact, the final squeeze that we would expect to see at the bottom of the cycle, if demand doesn't materialize near term, what actions can RXO take just to manage gross profit for loads for say, the next couple of quarters?

其次，如果這確實是我們預期在周期底部看到的最終擠壓，如果短期內需求沒有實現，RXO 可以採取哪些措施來管理未來幾季的貨運毛利？

Stephanie, it's Drew. I'll take the first part on the reducing capacity and Jared will take the second part of your question on the -- gross in dollars and gross profit per load through a quarter. When you look at what's going on, on the supply side, as I said in my prepared commentary, I think is the biggest structural change potentially in transportation, compare it to something like ELDs.

史蒂芬妮，我是德魯。我將回答關於產能下降的第一部分問題，而 Jared 將回答你問題的第二部分——季度內每輛車貨物的毛利（以美元計）和毛收入。當你審視供應方面的情況時，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我認為交通運輸領域可能出現的最大結構性變化，可以將其與 ELD 之類的東西進行比較。

And when ELDs were enforced, drivers had a hoist of whether or not they were going to invest into their equipment and continue to haul. At this point, they don't have a choice, being pulled off the road if they're non-doncile drivers or English language proficiency doesn't meet the requirements. So I think it's a much bigger change than what anything that has happened in the industry in the past.

當電子記錄設備 (ELD) 被強制執行時，司機就面臨著是否要投資購買設備並繼續運輸貨物的難題。此時，他們別無選擇，如果他們不是駕駛執照持有者或英語能力不符合要求，就會被勒令離路。所以我認為這比過去業內發生的任何變化都要大得多。

And it is something that will take out capacity in a major way in large percentage points. The one thing that we still need is for demand to return overall. As demand returns, what that does is it creates a much sharper inflection as the market comes back.

這將大幅降低產能，降幅可達很大百分比。我們目前仍然需要的是整體需求的恢復。隨著需求的恢復，市場復甦時會產生更明顯的轉折點。

And Stephanie, on your second part of the question in terms of if it's the final squeeze, but demand doesn't recover, what actions can we do? I would point to the $30 million of new cast cost initiatives that we announced this morning, more than $30 million, where you'll see a partial impact here in the fourth quarter. We continue to streamline the cost structure of the business, and we see significant opportunities as it relates to improving that cost structure longer term.

史蒂芬妮，關於你問題的第二部分，如果這是最後的擠壓，但需求沒有恢復，我們可以採取哪些措施？我想指出我們今天早上宣布的 3000 萬美元的新鑄造成本削減計劃，超過 3000 萬美元，您將在第四季度看到部分影響。我們將繼續精簡業務成本結構，並且我們看到了在長期改善成本結構方面的巨大機會。

As you think about additionally heading into next year, I think Drew touched on this in the opening remarks, our cost of purchase transportation benefits as carrier reps continue to gain incremental efficiencies on RXO Connect and Freight Optimizer, the ability to go ahead and become more productive and benefit from a PT standpoint. I think are very clear.

展望明年，我認為 Drew 在開場白中也提到了這一點，隨著承運商代表在 RXO Connect 和 Freight Optimizer 上不斷提高效率，我們的採購運輸成本優勢得以體現，這將使我們能夠提高生產力，並從 PT 的角度受益。我認為非常清楚。

And then the last thing I'd close with is, I think Jamie touched on this ultimately, we are seeing lower interest rates and the benefits associated with the bills that were passed through -- Congress as it relates to potential investments in the US as well. So if you think about what this is setting up for when supply eventually continues to normalize combined with a demand inflection, it would be pretty strong on the other side, but enforcement does need to sustain.

最後我想補充一點，我認為傑米最終也談到了這一點，我們看到利率下降，以及國會通過的法案帶來的好處——這些法案也與美國的潛在投資有關。所以，如果你想想當供應最終繼續正常化，需求出現拐點時，這將會帶來什麼後果，另一邊的情況會非常強勁，但執法力度確實需要持續下去。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊銀行。

Drew, this is going to come off a little critical, but I think it's probably for the betterment of everyone on the call. I mean let's take a face value, your adjusted EBITDA guide here is down about 40% at the midpoint year-on-year, and that's a year in the Coyote. We really thought Coyote was going to be transformative, a pretty big acquisition for a company of your size.

德魯，我這話可能聽起來有點批評，但我認為這對參加通話的每個人都有好處。我的意思是，讓我們以實際值來看，你調整後的 EBITDA 指引值比去年同期下降了約 40%（以年中值計算），這相當於 Coyote 一年的時間。我們當時真的認為 Coyote 會帶來變革，對於你們這樣規模的公司來說，這是一筆相當大的收購。

I guess, looking back, are there things that you maybe wouldn't have done? And I mean, maybe to exemplify it, I think the last couple of years, you guys have said, look, a is usually a lot weaker than 4Q. Is that what we're to infer here? And if that's the case, I mean, I guess investors are probably going to look for more tangible actions here on earnings.

我想，回首往事，有沒有一些你可能不會去做的事情？我的意思是，為了舉例說明，我認為過去幾年，你們都說過，你看，a 通常比 4Q 弱得多。這就是我們應該得出的結論嗎？如果真是這樣的話，我的意思是，我想投資人可能會希望看到公司在獲利方面採取更實際的行動。

Yes. Bren, thanks for the question. If you look back at the Coyote acquisition, on people, customers and technology, we have done extremely well. But the financial results are not where they need to be. And the biggest miss off of that was whenever you went into the 2025 market we made a decision on pricing. And we took price up off of that. I made the wrong call on that one.

是的。布倫，謝謝你的提問。回顧對 Coyote 的收購，無論在人員、客戶或技術方面，我們都做得非常出色。但財務業績並未達到預期。而最大的失誤在於，當我們展望 2025 年市場時，我們對定價做出了決定。我們因此提高了價格。那件事我判斷錯了。

And that is something that has impacted overall volumes. And if you go back and you look at our history, we've outgrown the market for several times. I look forward to us getting back to the days of where we are the market leader, and we're the transportation leader from a growth standpoint of taking market share. Clearly, 2025 is not where we want it to be overall.

而這確實對整體銷售產生了影響。回顧我們的歷史，我們會發現我們已經多次超越了市場需求。我期待我們能夠重回市場領先地位，並在市場份額的成長方面再次成為運輸業的領導者。顯然，2025 年的整體發展狀況並非我們所期望的。

As you go from 4Q to 1Q, first, I would say we'll start with the third quarter. Typically, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, you see brokerage and last mile go up from an EBITDA perspective. That is not what you're seeing this year. So the headwind going from 4Q to 1Q is not the same as what it typically would be. We also have the cost actions that we have taken that will be impacted from 4Q to 1Q.

從第四季到第一季度，首先，我想說我們先從第三季開始。通常情況下，從第三季到第四季度，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，經紀業務和最後一公里配送業務都會成長。但今年情況並非如此。因此，從第四季到第一季所面臨的逆風與通常情況並不相同。我們採取的成本控制措施也會對第四季到第一季產生影響。

So I don't think it's an apples-to-apples. Demand is still in a known as we go into Q1 and are we still getting squeezed as we go into Q1, that's unknown. But ultimately, what is happening in the business right now is setting up for a very, very good thing.

所以我認為這並非同類比較。進入第一季度，需求情況仍然未知，我們是否還會繼續受到擠壓，這還是未知數。但歸根結底，目前商業領域正在發生的事情，正在為一件非常好的事情鋪路。

Well, I appreciate that, Drew. And Jamie, can you talk to your adjusted leverage calc that I think speaks to some of your covenants. And is that going to be a challenge just given the earnings outlook here into the fourth quarter, especially as you move forward?

謝謝你，德魯。傑米，你能談談你的調整槓桿率計算嗎？我認為這與你們的一些契約條款有關。鑑於第四季度的獲利前景，這是否會是一個挑戰，尤其是在您繼續推動業務發展的時候？

Yes. Thanks. Yes. So we ended the quarter a leverage of a net 2.3. If you look forward to the midpoint of our range at the end of Q4, say, 20 to 30 to 25, you'll be about 2.8. Our covenant is 4.5, so we've got a lot of headroom. We have a very strong balance sheet. We got access to several hundreds of millions of dollars of capital. So we're not concerned about that.

是的。謝謝。是的。因此，本季末我們的淨槓桿率為 2.3。如果您展望第四季末的區間中點，例如 20 到 30 到 25，那麼槓桿率大約是 2.8。我們的契約是 4.5，所以我們還有很大的迴旋餘地。我們的資產負債表非常穩健。我們獲得了數億美元的資金。所以我們並不擔心。

One thing I would point out, we had -- as Drew said, we had a strong cash flow quarter, 56% conversion, added cash to the balance sheet. As we look forward to fourth quarter, we will have the semi-annual bond payment, which is normally due in Q4, which will make that. And so we'll use some cash in the fourth quarter. But as you look at '25 holistically, one thing that's really important to point out.

我想指出的一點是，正如德魯所說，我們本季現金流強勁，轉換率達到 56%，資產負債表上增加了現金。展望第四季度，我們將迎來半年一次的債券支付，該支付通常在第四季度到期，這將使情況有所改善。因此，我們將在第四季動用一些現金。但從整體來看，2025 年有一點非常重要，需要指出。

There's about $65 million or $70 million of cash outflows in 2025 that will not reoccur in '26. Three drivers. Number one, in the first quarter, we had $25 million of cash usage to finish paying for transaction fees related to the Coyote acquisition that happened in '24 as purely down. Secondly, our total spend on restructuring and integration will go down approximately $30 million year-over-year.

2025 年約有 6,500 萬至 7,000 萬美元的現金流出，這筆資金在 2026 年不會再次出現。三名司機。第一，在第一季度，我們有 2500 萬美元的現金用於支付 2024 年收購 Coyote 的交易費用，這完全是下降的。其次，我們在重組和整合方面的總支出將年減約 3,000 萬美元。

And then third, our CapEx will go down $10 million to $15 million. So if you think of all those together, we fully got $65 million or $70 million of cash outflow in 2025 that will not reoccur. If you put that in context of the '25 midpoint of the range for the full year, that means we would be producing $20 million to $25 million of free cash flow in '25.

第三，我們的資本支出將減少 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。所以，如果把所有這些加起來考慮，我們在 2025 年總共會有 6500 萬到 7000 萬美元的現金流出，而且這筆錢不會再出現了。如果將此與 2025 年全年預期範圍的中點聯繫起來，這意味著我們在 2025 年將產生 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元的自由現金流。

So if you think about at the bottom of the cycle, very strong. It really sets up nicely as the cycle improves. That number will go up. And so all that taken together, we have a very strong cash flow business. We have a very strong balance sheet, and we always watch the balance sheet closely, but we're -- it's not something that we're overly concerned about right now, but we do pay close attention as is expected to.

所以，如果你想想週期底部的情況，那會非常強勁。隨著循環的改善，情況會越來越好。這個數字還會上升。綜上所述，我們擁有非常強勁的現金流業務。我們的資產負債表非常穩健，我們一直密切關注資產負債表，但目前我們對此並不特別擔心，不過我們確實會像預期那樣密切關注。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧香克爾，摩根士丹利。

So the bit of an AI arms race out there in the brokerage space, it's all about how many Agentic AI bots you have and how many press releases you put out. But you said that your customers are telling you that you have the best and easiest tech out there. Can you just unpack for us the process of going out there and selling your tech platform to your customers? Like, what are they looking for?

所以，經紀領域現在有點像人工智慧軍備競賽，關鍵在於你擁有多少 Agentic AI 機器人以及你發布了多少新聞稿。但您說過，您的客戶告訴您，您擁有市面上最好、最方便的技術。您能為我們詳細介紹一下您是如何將您的技術平台推銷給客戶的嗎？他們究竟在尋找什麼？

How do you drive conversion? And kind of how do you differentiate yourself with what else is out there from a tech world because sometimes it is hard to see for us in our seat.

如何提高轉換率？那麼，在科技領域，你要如何讓自己與其他公司區分開來呢？因為有時候，我們這些身處其中的人很難看清楚這一點。

Yes. Ravi, one, I appreciate the question. The only thing I would level set on is it's not about press releases for us just about results for employees, it's about results for customers. It's about results for carriers. And we are hitting an inflection point with our AI investments that we have been making. Not only have we been running an integration, we have been investing in AI, and we've been investing in it heavily.

是的。Ravi，首先，我很感謝你的提問。我唯一想強調的是，對我們來說，重要的不是新聞稿，而是員工的業績，而是顧客的表現。這關係到運營商的業績。我們正處於人工智慧投資的一個轉折點。我們不僅一直在進行整合，而且還在人工智慧領域投入大量資金。

When you look on the ability of what we're able to do on the pricing side, it is something while we had a very strong pricing algorithm that's allowed us to outperform the market from a margin perspective for a decade plus, it is getting better. When you look at the way that we are communicating with carriers. It is changing, and it is allowing our reps to spend more time focusing on solutions.

從定價方面來看，雖然我們擁有非常強大的定價演算法，使我們能夠在利潤率方面超越市場十多年，但現在情況正在變得更好。當你審視我們與營運商的溝通方式時。情況正在改變，這使得我們的銷售代表能夠花更多的時間專注於解決方案。

And then the last thing is even if you look at our last mile business, we've done things like whenever you're doing an installation versus a person going in there and getting a photo and checking it, we've been able to actually do that with an AI bot that is checking everything from an installation standpoint, which is critical to our customers and consumers and how that process unfolds.

最後一點是，即使你看看我們的最後一公里業務，我們也做了一些事情，例如，在進行安裝時，以前是由人進去拍照檢查，現在我們已經能夠使用人工智慧機器人從安裝的角度檢查一切，這對於我們的客戶和消費者以及整個流程的展開至關重要。

So for us, very excited about hitting an inflection point with AI and what it will actually mean from an operating margin perspective to the business. And look forward to hosting you next week and let you actually see it on the floor of how it impacts carriers lives, how it impacts customers and how we're interacting with them so that you can see it live and in person.

因此，我們非常興奮地看到人工智慧迎來了一個轉折點，以及它從營運利潤率的角度來看對企業的實際意義。期待下週接待您，讓您親眼看看它如何影響運營商的生活，如何影響客戶，以及我們如何與他們互動，以便您能親身感受。

Great. Looking forward to that as well. Maybe a super follow-up. Your 4Q guidance is predicated on the current demand-supply equation holding, right? So if for some reason, the supply side or the enforcement drops off or supply side gets looser, your 4Q gross margin will be better than guided.

偉大的。我也很期待。或許會有後續報道。你們的第四季業績指引是基於目前供需關係保持不變的前提，對嗎？因此，如果由於某種原因，供應方或執法力度下降，或者供應方放鬆，那麼您的第四季毛利率將優於預期。

Ravi, as you think about the range that we provided for Q4, $230 million of adjusted EBITDA, the midpoint assumes that current market conditions in terms of the intensification that occurred in the month of October with respect to market tightness given the supply dynamics that we talked about that sustains throughout the rest of the quarter.

Ravi，考慮到我們為第四季度提供的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.3 億美元，其中值假設當前市場狀況，即 10 月份市場供應緊張加劇的情況，以及我們之前討論過的供應動態，這種情況將持續到本季度剩餘時間。

The low end assumes that the market further tightens in terms of that squeeze impact without a corresponding increase in demand in spot opportunities. So that environment would result at the low end. And for the high end, to your point, as you think about either the market tightening to the point where it results in some pressure in waterfall routing guides and some spot opportunities and/or if there is an easing in buy rates that would allow gross profit per load to improve from current levels to get to the high end of our guide for Q4.

低端假設市場進一步收緊，受到擠壓效應的影響，而現貨機會的需求卻沒有相應增加。因此，這種環境會導致低階產品上市。至於高端市場，正如您所說，您可以考慮市場收緊到一定程度，導致瀑布式路線指南和一些現貨機會面臨壓力，或者購買價格有所下降，從而使每次裝載的毛利從目前的水平提高到我們第四季度指南的高端水平。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

I guess I wanted to ask a question about operating expenses and your ability to maybe sort of rein those in a little bit as you go forward in this weaker market. Maybe you can talk a little bit about the potential opportunities you have. It looks like if I just sort of zone in on direct OpEx and labor expenses, those have been relatively flat in this market over the course of the last few quarters. Is there work that you can do there to try to adapt to what has been obviously a more challenging outlook?

我想問的是關於營運費用的問題，以及在當前市場疲軟的情況下，你們是否有能力稍微控制一下這些費用。或許你可以稍微談談你所擁有的潛在機會。看起來，如果我只專注於直接營運支出和人力成本，那麼在過去幾個季度裡，這些成本在這個市場中一直保持相對穩定。你能做些什麼來適應這種顯然更具挑戰性的情況？

Yes. This is Jamie. We've taken a lot of cost actions in spin, $155 million in total, including the synergies we've got from the acquisition. We're constantly looking at our expenses. If you look at our P&L, a lot of the direct OpEx that you see in the P&L relates to our last mile and our managed transportation business SG&A that shows up in the P&L across all the business lines.

是的。這是傑米。我們在分拆過程中採取了許多成本控制措施，總共節省了 1.55 億美元，其中包括我們從收購中獲得的協同效應。我們一直在關注各項開支。如果您查看我們的損益表，您會發現損益表中許多直接營運支出都與我們的最後一公里配送和運輸管理業務有關，銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）也出現在所有業務線的損益表中。

There's still plenty of actions that we can take, and we've talked about automation. We've talked about process improvement, one of the things that we're constantly working on, Drew mentioned in his remarks, footprint, how do we consolidate footprint so we can give the same level of customer service in fewer square feet of space and fewer facilities. Those are the type of things we're constantly working on.

我們仍然可以採取很多行動，我們也討論過自動化。我們已經討論過流程改進，這也是我們一直在努力的方向之一。德魯在他的演講中提到，還有佔地面積，我們如何整合佔地面積，以便在更少的空間和更少的設施內提供同等水平的客戶服務。這些都是我們一直在努力的方向。

And yes, there is more that we can do and we're constantly working on those type of activities. And you can see it with the $30 million that we announced today, I mean, that's a constant process that we're going through.

是的，我們還可以做更多的事情，我們也一直在努力進行這類活動。從我們今天宣布的 3000 萬美元就能看出這一點，我的意思是，這是我們一直在進行的過程。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess, maybe, Drew, if we could sort of zoom out a little bit and try to get a sense of maybe how we come out of this dynamic that we're in right now. I know that we typically see the cycles turn simply driven by the supply coming out, and it seems like that's happening without any demand, I guess.

好的。那很有幫助。然後我想，德魯，或許我們可以稍微跳出這個框架，試著去了解我們該如何擺脫目前這種情況。我知道我們通常看到的周期轉變只是由供應的增加所驅動的，但似乎現在這種情況並沒有伴隨任何需求。

Maybe help us a little bit as you think about the next couple of quarters as you guys are planning for the sort of demand environment. What do you see out there? You obviously need demand? Where do you think it comes from?

或許你們在規劃未來幾季的需求環境時，可以幫我們想想嗎？你看到了什麼？顯然你需要需求？你覺得它來自哪裡？

Yes. I think, Chris, there's a lot of things that we're watching on the demand, as Jamie alluded to in his prepared comments, we're watching what happens on the interest rates. We're wanting what is happening in the homes. We're paying very close attention on the automotive side. As you know, in automotive, there is the managed expedite portion.

是的。我認為，克里斯，正如傑米在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們正在關注需求方面的許多因素，我們正在關注利率的走勢。我們想知道這些家庭裡正在發生什麼事。我們非常關注汽車產業。如您所知，在汽車行業，存在著管理加急部分。

And that's when everything breaks down and you have to get something to a plant to avoid shutdown. That's a big piece of our business. And when you look at what that piece of the business was during the peak, it was around 13% of our gross margin dollars in brokerage came from expedite loads. Right now, we're sitting at around 1% or 2%.

這時一切都會崩潰，你必須想辦法把東西送到工廠，以避免停工。這是我們業務的重要組成部分。當你查看業務高峰期這部分業務的佔比時，你會發現，我們經紀業務毛利的 13% 左右來自加急貨運。目前，我們的佔比在 1% 到 2% 左右。

So to see where the business can go to getting back on track from that perspective. We've always had a big presence in retail and e-commerce, and we have a lot of great relationships there. From the Coyote acquisition, we gained a lot of exposure to food and beverage. And one of the things that we've been really focused on the sales side is expanding in the technology vertical and expanding in the high cargo value goods area. And we have got a very good pipeline.

所以要從這個角度來看，看看企業如何能重回正軌。我們一直大力拓展零售和電子商務業務，並建立了許多良好的合作關係。透過收購 Coyote，我們獲得了大量食品和飲料行業的經驗。我們在銷售方面一直非常關注的事情之一是拓展技術垂直領域和拓展高價值貨物領域。我們擁有非常好的輸油管。

We're seeing good wins in those areas and look forward to the results. The second part of your question, I think, was more on the market and what's going on. And what I would say is this is not an episodic squeeze. This is not DOT checkpoint weak. This is not produce season. This is not a weather impact this is a structural change that is taking place in the industry if it persists.

我們在這些領域取得了不錯的進展，期待最終結果。我認為，你問題的第二部分更多的是關於市場以及當前的情況。我想說的是，這不是一次偶發性的擠壓。這不是DOT檢查點薄弱環節。現在不是蔬果成熟的季節。這不是天氣因素造成的影響，而是產業結構性變化，如果這種情況持續下去將會發生。

And so supply coming out is real, it's happening. And on the other side of that, with the demand, that sets up extremely well for large carriers, specifically brokers who have good relationships with their customers who provide good service, can provide a comprehensive set of solutions and have great technology. We fit -- we check the box on every one of those. So this is mechanical and part of what we go through at this point in the process, but we know it's on the other side of it.

所以供應增加是真實存在的，它正在發生。另一方面，需求旺盛，這對大型運輸公司，特別是那些與客戶關係良好、提供優質服務、能夠提供一套全面的解決方案並擁有先進技術的經紀公司來說，是非常有利的。我們完全符合所有條件──我們每一項都符合。所以這是機械性的，也是我們在這個過程中要經歷的一部分，但我們知道它終將過去。

Are you willing to sort of venture a guess what the capacity rationalization might look like in terms of percent of the fleet?

您能否大致估算一下，運力合理化方案可能會在機隊中佔多大比例？

Chris, we're watching a lot of the same things that you're watching. And I mean if you take out the private fleets and the large carriers, there's numbers out there that could be 15% to 20% of capacity. And if that happens, that is a big change within the industry and a lot of capacity that we'll be exiting.

克里斯，我們看的很多東西跟你看的都一樣。我的意思是，如果把私人機隊和大型航空公司排除在外，那麼剩餘的運力可能占到總運力的 15% 到 20%。如果這種情況發生，那將是產業內的重大變革，我們將退出大量的產能。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

So Drew or Jared, I just want to understand kind of the messaging here for the fourth quarter. Is this just the squeeze of the spot price that shifted quickly? Are you seeing an acceleration in the demand falling away? Just it seems like such a significant -- more significant change for a fourth quarter outlook than we've heard from other carriers that have also reported within the past week.

所以，無論是德魯還是賈里德，我只是想了解一下第四季想要傳達的訊息。這僅僅是現貨價格快速波動造成的擠壓嗎？你是否觀察到需求下降速度加快的趨勢？看起來這似乎是一個非常重大的變化——比我們過去一周從其他航空公司聽到的第四季度展望變化要大得多。

So I just want to understand what you're seeing maybe that's a little different. Is the cost exposure unique to RXO in terms of 2/3 of the cost came from regions where the buy rates increased? Is that maybe something more particular to RXO than your peers? Or is it the capacity tightening more in Texas and California? So any thoughts, I know it's a long question, but any thoughts on that would be helpful.

所以我想了解你所看到的，也許這有點不同。RXO 的成本風險是否獨一無二，即 2/3 的成本來自購買率上升的地區？這或許是 RXO 與其他公司相比更特有的問題？或者說，德州和加州的產能緊張程度更為嚴重？所以，大家有什麼想法嗎？我知道這個問題很長，但任何想法都會很有幫助。

Ken, it's Jared. So when you think about the bridge from Q3 to Q4, typically, both brokerage and last mile are up sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter. This year, we are assuming that they are both down sequentially, and that's a function of both of what you cited in terms of lower demand and higher PT costs. So on the demand side, we are seeing lower demand across the business.

肯，我是賈里德。因此，從第三季度到第四季度，通常情況下，經紀業務和最後一公里業務都會從第三季到第四季環比成長。今年，我們假設它們都環比下降，這是由於您提到的需求下降和PT成本上升這兩個因素共同造成的。因此，從需求方面來看，我們看到整個業務的需求都在下降。

We saw that play out throughout Q3, and we are expecting the same in the fourth quarter. I'd say specific also to last mile, we did see a drop off, call it, after the Labor Day time frame with respect to goods for big and bulky. So last mile is seasonally up into the fourth quarter. and we are expecting that to decline sequentially given that decline in big and bulky demand.

我們在第三季就看到了這種情況，我們預期第四季也會出現同樣的情況。我還想特別指出，就最後一公里配送而言，我們在勞動節之後確實看到大件和笨重貨物的配送量有所下降。因此，最後一公里配送量通常會在第四季達到季節性高峰。鑑於大件和笨重物品的需求下降，我們預計最後一公里配送量將比去年同期下降。

With respect to the question as it relates to purchase transportation costs, right? So when you think about our business, to your point, we did see about 2/3 of states where we were moving goods from an outbound standpoint, our PT costs going higher in the third quarter. So I'd say it moved modestly higher in the month of September.

關於採購運輸成本的問題，對嗎？所以，就我們的業務而言，正如您所說，我們確實看到，從出境角度來看，我們向大約三分之二的州運送貨物，而我們的運輸成本在第三季度有所上升。所以我覺得它在9月小漲了。

But that acute tightening really did happen over the last 4 weeks after the emergency order on nondomiciled CDLs came into effect at the end of September. And we've seen that play out with gross profit per load and gross margin compression within the brokerage business in the month of October. And what makes this interesting and unique to Drew's point, where this is very structural from our standpoint because this is not an episodic squeeze like we've seen over the last three years, where -- whether it's seasonality due to produce season or DOT checkpoint. This is a lot of capacity that is coming out of the market.

但這種急劇收緊確實發生在 9 月底針對非居民 CDL 的緊急命令生效後的 4 週內。我們已經看到，10 月經紀業務的每筆交易毛利和毛利率都出現了壓縮。而德魯的觀點之所以有趣和獨特，是因為從我們的角度來看，這是一個非常結構性的問題，因為這不是像過去三年我們看到的那種偶發性擠壓，無論是由於農產品季節還是交通部檢查站造成的季節性問題。這意味著市場上將釋放大量產能。

And ultimately, it's happening at a point where we are having weaker demand trends. So you don't have routing guide pressures to allow for accretive spot opportunities. So that's really what's playing out here, Kevin.

歸根結底，這種情況發生在需求趨勢疲軟的時期。所以你沒有路線規劃的壓力，也無法把握增值機會。所以，這就是事情的真相，凱文。

So just to clarify that, Jared, because again, I'm just trying to compare it versus what we've heard from some peers, right? So the lack of spot opportunities, but are you seeing that core demand fall faster? I'm just trying to differentiate kind of why we're seeing maybe some cost for some margin accretion at some relative peers versus the continued pressure. I get the cost side, I think you've made that quite clear in terms of the speed with which this is happening. So is anything also happening on the demand side?

所以，賈里德，我只是想澄清一下，因為我只是想把它和我們從一些同行那裡聽到的情況進行比較，對吧？所以，現貨機會匱乏，但您是否發現核心需求下降得更快？我只是想弄清楚，為什麼我們看到一些同行為了提高利潤率而付出了一些成本，而我們卻面臨著持續的壓力。我理解成本方面的問題，我認為你已經很清楚地說明了這件事發生的速度。那麼需求方面也有什麼改變嗎？

So yes, demand has weakened. I would also -- when you look at our mix, mix is very different across different businesses and different brokerages, right? So for RXO our contractual book of business, which was just north of 70% of our volume in the third quarter from appropriate standpoint, really, if you think about largest shippers in North America, Tier 1 enterprise-class shippers not as much SMB, right?

是的，需求確實減弱了。我還要補充一點——當你審視我們的投資組合時，你會發現不同企業和不同經紀公司的投資組合差異很大，對吧？因此，對於 RXO 而言，我們的合約業務在第三季占我們業務量的 70% 以上。從合適的角度來看，如果你考慮到北美最大的托運人，一級企業級托運人，而不是中小企業，那麼這確實有點說不過去，對吧？

One of the benefits associated with the acquisition of Coyote was we did get an SMB business, but ultimately, that's probably around 10% of total volume. The big bulk of our exposure really is large Tier 1 enterprise-class shippers. So I do think that mix is also important. And I go back to the earlier question as it relates to automotive, which certainly has been a headwind for the business as well as an example, throughout the year.

收購 Coyote 的好處之一是我們獲得了一家中小企業企業，但最終，這可能只佔總業務量的 10% 左右。我們的風險敞口實際上都來自大型一級企業級貨運公司。所以我認為這種融合也很重要。我又回到了之前關於汽車產業的問題，汽車產業無疑是今年以來該產業的一大阻力，也是一個例證。

I suppose with the managed expedite type freight. So I would certainly highlight mix is a big difference.

我想應該是那種管理有序的加急貨運方式。所以，我一定要強調，混合搭配是一個很大的差別。

Ken, I would also -- I'll expand on it a little bit. I think there's a lot of public data out there that shows what's going on with demand. If you look at the cash freight index it shows that it is down 7% if you want to dive specifically in the truckload, Freight wave sonar has got a product out there that shows down sitting around 17% right now on the truckload side. So I think it's not necessarily taking our Workforce just looking at the public data out there available on the truckload market.

肯，我也會──我再詳細說說。我認為有很多公開數據可以顯示當前的需求狀況。如果你查看現金貨運指數，你會發現它下降了 7%；如果你想具體了解整車貨運，貨運波聲納公司推出了一款產品，顯示目前整車貨運方面下降了約 17%。所以我認為，僅僅查看卡車運輸市場上的公開數據並不一定意味著要動用我們的勞動力。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Thanks. So again, just sort of like a big picture. We're talking about a tightening market. And at the same time, like your truckload rev per load goes from up three to up one. Drew, you've been doing this a long time. Have you seen this before where the market tightens and your buy rates go up, but like industry spot rates or sell rates don't move. I don't know that I've seen this before.

謝謝。所以，再說一遍，就是要把握全局。我們現在討論的是市場趨緊。同時，就像你的卡車每裝載一次的轉速從三轉降到了一轉。德魯，你從事這行很久了。你以前見過這種情況嗎？市場收緊，買入價格上漲，但產業現貨價格或賣出價格卻維持不變。我好像以前沒看過這個。

And then ultimately, I guess what I'm trying to understand is like it's a typical squeeze for your business is a quarter or two and then eventually you sort of like benefit from it, like do you think this is a -- if it's supply driven, is it a longer squeeze this time? Or do you think, hey, this dynamic of buy rates up and sell rates not moving can't last. And at some point, the sell rates are going to have to start moving pretty quickly.

最後，我想弄清楚的是，對於你的企業來說，典型的擠壓期是一到兩個季度，然後最終你會從中受益，那麼，如果這是供應驅動的，這次的擠壓期會持續更長時間嗎？或者你認為，買入價格上漲而賣出價格不變的這種動態不可能持續下去。在某個時候，賣價勢必會開始快速上漲。

Yes, Scott, I think that everything that you just said points to it being a structural change that has happened in the industry because it is something that we all have not seen before. and shaking out this way. As far as how long the squeeze is Yes, I don't think it will be wise of me to venture a guess on how long the squeeze is because I don't think that anybody saw the upside and the downside of the cycle lasting 5-plus years at this point.

是的，斯科特，我認為你剛才說的所有內容都表明，這是行業內發生的結構性變革，因為這是我們以前從未見過的，而且最終會以這種方式呈現出來。至於擠壓會持續多久，是的，我認為現在猜測擠壓會持續多久並不明智，因為我認為目前沒有人預料到週期會持續 5 年以上。

So I don't know how long the squeeze will be. But yes, we are in the thick of it right now is something that impacts our margins. I'll tell you if you go back and you look at the time of ELD, you actually saw our margins fall to 11.5% during that time and within two quarters, you saw more than it make up for that on the recovery side. Now there was demand there. So I think that demand is a key point.

所以我不知道這種擠壓局面會持續多久。但沒錯，我們現在正處於困境之中，這確實會影響我們的利潤率。我告訴你，如果你回顧ELD時期，你會發現當時我們的利潤率實際上下降到了11.5%，但在兩個季度內，我們在復甦方面彌補了這一損失。現在那裡有了需求。所以我認為需求是關鍵。

But I do not think that the capacity coming out in this situation is the same as ELD. I think it's in a much bigger way because at ELD, you had a choice of if you were going to spend the money and invest in your equipment to meet federal mandates. This time, you don't have a choice, you're just coming off of the road.

但我認為在這種情況下產生的產能與 ELD 不同。我認為情況要嚴重得多，因為在 ELD 系統中，你可以選擇是否要花錢投資設備以滿足聯邦要求。這一次，你別無選擇，你只能從路上下來。

All that makes sense. Can I just ask one quick follow-up. I think you mentioned that buy rates have gone up like $0.06 or something. How -- is there any like sensitivity like every penny of by rate equals how much of operating income or EBITDA, any sort of sensitivity there?

這一切都說得通。我可以再問一個後續問題嗎？我記得你提到買入價格上漲了大約 0.06 美元左右。如何體現這種敏感度——例如，利率的每一分錢相當於多少營業收入或 EBITDA，是否存在某種敏感度？

Yes. I mean, for us, Scott, the industry went up $0.06. We were much less than that. And I think that goes to the benefit of the Coyote acquisition of being able to buy better than market. So for us, in a quarter, every penny that it goes up is $2.5 million of EBITDA.

是的。我的意思是，史考特，對我們來說，整個產業上漲了0.06美元。而我們的漲幅遠低於這個數字。我認為這有利於 Coyote 的收購，使其能夠以優於市價的價格進行收購。所以對我們來說，一個季度內，每漲一分錢，EBITDA 就會增加 250 萬美元。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yes. Just maybe just a follow-on thinking about the purchase transport and the squeeze. Obviously, there's decent squeeze going on. PT is going up. I mean doesn't that read that as we get into the contract season next cycle, which I presume starts in earnest in early next year or March or something that we should see significant increase in -- or at least an increase in contract rates and the squeeze should be going away?

是的。或許可以進一步思考採購運輸和擠壓問題。顯然，這裡存在相當大的擠壓。PT值正在上升。我的意思是，這難道不是意味著，隨著我們進入下一個合約季（我估計會在明年初或三月份正式開始），我們應該會看到合約價格大幅上漲——或者至少合約價格會上漲，而合約緊縮的局面應該會消失嗎？

Yes. Jordan, I think it will still depend on what happens with overall demand and bid season is underway right now. We're in the middle of some of our largest bids yesterday in Charlotte, we had seven of our largest customers. And we spent a lot of time talking about our pricing strategy with them. Talking about how we could draw synergies between the customers that were in the room from a capacity standpoint, talking about what was going on with the federal mandates.

是的。喬丹，我認為這仍然取決於整體需求的情況，而且現在正是競標季。昨天我們在夏洛特進行了一些最大的投標，我們有七家最大的客戶參與了投標。我們花了很多時間和他們討論定價策略。討論如何從產能角度挖掘在場客戶之間的協同效應，以及聯邦政府的強制規定。

So for us, we look at every customer as their own story as we get through bid cycle. So are there the opportunity for rates to go up? Absolutely. But I think some of it depends on what's going on in the market as that customer's bid is going on. So I'm not going to forecast on where rates are going to go for next year. But what I will say is as routing guys start to break down, that's where spot loads come in at, and those are at a much higher revenue per load.

因此，在整個投標過程中，我們將每位客戶視為獨立的案例。那麼利率是否有可能上漲呢？絕對地。但我認為這在一定程度上取決於客戶出價時市場的情況。所以我不會預測明年的利率走勢。但我想說的是，當路線規劃人員開始出現問題時，現貨貨運就派上了用場，而現貨貨運的單次收入要高得多。

Well, I guess, just as a quick follow-up, I mean, I mean given what you're seeing in purchase transport, I mean, is the -- do you feel that the customers you're talking to are understanding that you're going to need to push rate up?

嗯，我想快速跟進一下，我的意思是，鑑於您在採購運輸方面看到的情況，您是否覺得您正在交談的客戶理解您需要提高價格？

We're -- we have very close relationships with all of our customers. Every one of them is their own story. And for us, it's about providing a solution for them and for us that works for both the long -- short and the long term. So our customers are very well aware of what's going on in the market right now.

我們與所有客戶都保持著非常密切的關係。他們每個人都有自己的故事。對我們來說，關鍵在於為他們和我們自己提供一個既能滿足短期利益又能滿足長期利益的解決方案。因此，我們的客戶非常清楚目前市場上的狀況。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

So wanted to swing back a little bit to just kind of how we should view the run rate in 4Q and what that implies for '26 or just progress how to think about '26. If you kind of take midpoint of your EBITDA guide for 4Q added up with the three you reported, you get $117 million per EBITDA base in '25. If you kind of put seasonality on the $25 million 4Q, it's probably well below $100 million.

所以我想稍微回到我們應該如何看待第四季度的運行率，以及這對 2026 年意味著什麼，或者說，我們應該如何看待 2026 年的發展。如果將你第四季 EBITDA 指引值的中點與你報告的三個季度的 EBITDA 指引值相加，那麼 2025 年的 EBITDA 基數將達到 1.17 億美元。如果考慮到第四季 2500 萬美元的季節性因素，實際數字可能遠低於 1 億美元。

So I guess, I know you've got the $30 million of cost saves, you've got other initiatives. But I mean do you think 26% EBITDA is more closer to $100 million or closer to $150 million? Or just it seems like hard to know what's the right ballpark even to be in given 4Q so tough?

所以我想，我知道你們已經節省了 3000 萬美元的成本，你們還有其他措施。但我的意思是，你認為 26% 的 EBITDA 更接近 1 億美元還是更接近 1.5 億美元？或者說，鑑於第四季度競爭如此激烈，似乎很難確定一個合適的大致位置？

Yes, this is Jamie. As you know, we did one quarter at a time. As we think about '26, as you know, there's a lot of unknowns. Heading into next year, we got the volume demand. Where does it go? We got the cost of purchase trends. How long does the squeeze endure, how does it get a little worse? Does it get better and when.

是的，這是傑米。如你所知，我們是一次只做第一季的。如你所知，當我們展望2026年時，有很多未知因素。展望明年，我們已經看到了銷售需求。它要去哪裡？我們獲得了購買趨勢的成本數據。這種擠壓會持續多久？情況又是如何惡化的？情況會好轉嗎？什麼時候會好轉？

You mentioned this, we do have a significant amount of cost that we've taken out of the business. some piece of that is a run rate into '26. We've got the purchase transportation opportunity. Drew talked about 30 to 50 basis points. To date, much of that is showing up in the P&L as cost avoidance that will translate. We will get more of that. We will get to that 100 basis points.

您提到了這一點，我們確實已經從業務中削減了相當一部分成本。其中一部分是到2026年的營運成本。我們有採購運輸的機會。德魯談到了30到50個基點。到目前為止，其中大部分都體現在損益表中，表現為成本規避，這些規避將會轉化為實際效益。我們將會看到更多這樣的情況。我們一定能達到100個基點。

And so I don't think you can take kind of Q4 project into a Q1 or Q2 because, again, Q4 is sub seasonal. We would expect both last mile and brokerage to be up sequentially from Q3 to Q4. It's not -- it's down. That being said, what that translates into a Q1 is not going to be normal also as it relates to the rest of the year. And is this demand -- as this market sets up, as Drew talked about on the capacity side, when demand comes back, and it will come back, there are a lot of things going on in the macro, the demand will come back. When we don't know for sure. But when it does, we're set up very well to be a beneficiary of that.

所以我認為你不能把第四季度的專案放到第一季或第二季度，因為，再說一遍，第四季是季節性的。我們預計從第三季到第四季度，最後一公里配送和經紀業務都將較上季成長。不是——它宕機了。也就是說，第一季的情況不會像往常一樣，而且這種情況也會波及到今年剩餘的時間。而這種需求——正如德魯在產能方面所談到的那樣，隨著市場的建立，當需求回升時，它就會回升，宏觀經濟中有很多事情正在發生，需求將會回升。當我們無法確定的時候。但當這種情況發生時，我們已經做好了充分的準備，可以從中受益。

Tom, I agree with everything that Jamie just said, but one thing that I would add is if you look at what's happened in the industry over the last seven, eight-weeks, and the impact of that has had to financials. -- it's running in the negative way. It works the exact opposite whenever the market starts to turn on the positive way. And this is an industry that turns very, very quickly. And you've got the opportunity as the market recovers to expand margins in a big way.

湯姆，我完全同意傑米剛才說的，但我還要補充一點，如果你看看過去七八周行業內發生的事情，以及這些事情對財務狀況的影響——結果是負面的。當市場開始向好轉時，情況則恰恰相反。這是一個變化非常非常快的行業。隨著市場復甦，你將有機會大幅提高利潤率。

Yes. Okay. That -- it seems like you could have a setup for a big improvement in second half '26, right? So that seems like a thing worth considering as well as a tough run rate coming in. I wanted to ask for like a second question to follow up. How do you think about what's important on enforcement and supply side? I mean I think I wonder if there is some avoidance of enforcement areas where the capacity that's questionable in the market understands where the enforcement is taking place and then you avoid that.

是的。好的。這樣看來，你們或許可以為 2026 年下半年取得重大進步做好準備，對吧？所以這似乎是一個值得考慮的因素，而且接下來的比賽節奏也會比較困難。我想再問一個後續問題。您認為執法和供給方面哪些因素比較重要？我的意思是，我懷疑是否存在某種規避執法區域的方法，即市場中存在可疑能力的人了解執法區域在哪裡，然後避開這些區域。

So part of the capacity doesn't leave the market, but kind of sits on the sidelines or maybe just avoids -- or maybe given the way the interstates flow, they're across multiple states and you can't avoid enforcement. Just wanted to get a sense on that because it seems like it's a big question. And the potential impact is so large, but just kind of hard to know if it all comes or not?

所以一部分產能並沒有退出市場，而是處於觀望狀態，或者只是避免——或者考慮到州際公路的走向，它們跨越多個州，你無法避免執法。我只是想了解一下情況，因為這似乎是一個很大的問題。潛在的影響非常大，但很難知道這些影響是否真的會發生？

Yes. I mean, Tom, we're watching it extremely closely, and it's something that we support. When you look at what this does for the industry, it makes it a safer industry, it eliminates fraud. It reduces theft. So this is a positive thing for the industry. It also puts something front of mind for our customers. And customers are going to look at who they're doing business with.

是的。湯姆，我的意思是，我們正在密切關注此事，而且我們支持此事。當你看到這項技術對產業帶來的好處時，你會發現它使產業更加安全，消除了詐欺行為。它能減少盜竊行為。所以這對業界來說是一件好事。這也讓我們的客戶隨時牢記某些事情。顧客會仔細檢視與他們做生意的對象。

They're going to look to do business with large, financially stable companies that have provided them with great service. They provide them with solutions. They've got good technology that allows them to make better decisions as a customer, and they're going to go back to the people who have delivered for them in the past. And we think that we set up very, very well on that market.

他們會尋求與那些為他們提供過優質服務的大型、財務穩健的公司開展業務。他們為他們提供解決方案。他們擁有先進的技術，可以讓他們作為客戶做出更好的決策，他們會再次選擇過去為他們提供服務的人。我們認為我們在這個市場上的佈局非常非常好。

Do you have any visibility on kind of avoidance? Or is that hard to measure from the carriers?

您是否了解這種規避行為的類型？或者說，從營運商的角度來看，這很難衡量嗎？

Yes. This is Jamie. I mean firstly, what I see going on with the enforcement and I think what the industry sees going on right now is I don't think they're going to -- this is not a state-by-state enforcement issue. This is more of a federal enforcement issue. And so regardless of where a carrier may be, I think they're subject to being taken off the road wherever, and it will take some time.

是的。這是傑米。首先，就我目前看到的執法情況以及我認為業界看到的執法情況而言，我認為他們不會——這不是逐州執法的問題。這比較屬於聯邦執法問題。因此，無論運輸車輛在哪裡，我認為它們都有可能在任何地方被禁止上路，而且這需要一些時間。

But we are seeing impact of the capacity and it impacted it very quickly. And so I don't think we would say there's any one spot that folks can go run lows in that is not under risk of being cost. And so I think it will be a continued enforcement.

但我們已經看到了產能下降的影響，而且影響來得非常快。因此，我認為我們不能說存在一個人們可以去搶購低價商品而不會面臨成本風險的地方。所以我認為執法力度會持續下去。

Tom, just remember, you only have to drive a few hundred miles in any direction to be in another state line.

湯姆，記住，你只需要朝任何方向行駛幾百英里，就會到達另一個州的邊界。

Yes, right. Well, that's where it seems like it's may be tough to -- maybe some states are easier, but hard to avoid states that are enforcing pretty significantly.

沒錯。嗯，看來難就難在這一點了——也許有些州比較容易，但很難避開那些執法力度大的州。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners。

Group question, I know nobody can predict how long this squeeze is going to go on. But I guess kind of following Scott and Jordan's question a little bit, if things just stayed static where they are right now, where the market is I know you talked about one to two quarters, two to three quarters. How long would it take you to price up to where this was not impacting franchise any more if it didn't get worse from where it was.

小組討論問題：我知道沒有人能預測這種擠壓局面會持續多久。但我想稍微回應一下 Scott 和 Jordan 的問題，如果情況保持現狀，市場現狀保持不變，我知道你們談到了一到兩個季度，兩到三個季度。如果情況不再惡化，你需要多久才能將價格調整到不會再對特許經營造成影響的程度？

Yes. I mean the biggest thing that we're watching right there is what happens on tender rejections. And if you look, even though demand is down significantly, tender rejections have gone over 6%. So right now, you are starting to see capacity put it towards those -- and it's not necessarily much on the contract rates that you're watching it.

是的。我的意思是，我們現在最關注的就是投標被拒絕後會發生什麼。而且，即使需求大幅下降，投標拒絕率也超過了 6%。所以現在，你開始看到產能轉向這些領域——而你關注的重點不一定是合約價格。

There's more what happens on the tender rejections whenever routing got starting to break on the spot. So that's with demand extremely depressed you're starting to see pressure on tender rejection. So that's mostly what I'm watching right now, Jeff.

還有更多關於投標被拒的情況，例如當路由開始立即中斷時。因此，在需求極度低迷的情況下，投標拒絕率開始上升。傑夫，這就是我現在主要在看的東西。

And where do we need to see normally tenders to get to where you can push price? Does it need to be above eight? Does it need to be above 10? Kind of where is that historic kind of breaking point?

通常情況下，我們需要看到哪些招標才能達到可以壓低價格的程度？一定大於八嗎？一定大於 10 嗎？那麼，那個具有歷史意義的轉捩點究竟在哪裡呢？

Yes. It needs to be in or above. That's typically whenever you start to see tender rejections called spot loads, whenever it gets into the mid-teens, excessive spot loads. And if you get back into a COVID like environment, it was -- I think it was sitting in the high 20s, low 30s during that time frame.

是的。它必須在以下位置或以上。通常情況下，當投標拒絕被稱為現貨負荷，當現貨負荷達到十幾噸左右時，就意味著現貨負荷過重。如果你回到類似新冠疫情的環境中，我認為那段時間的感染率在 20 多到 30 多之間。

But your point would be in the long run, this is a good thing. And when the market does stabilize, we're better off. What would be the --

但你的觀點是，從長遠來看，這是一件好事。當市場穩定後，我們會過得更好。會是什麼？--

In the long run, this is not a good thing. This is a great thing. You're talking about the carriers that customers are doing business with. The people who have been there for them that they now have the right qualifications on who they're doing business with. That's what they're looking for. And for us, the quality of carriers that we work for, the bar is extremely high.

從長遠來看，這不是一件好事。這是件好事。你指的是客戶與之開展業務的運營商。那些一直支持他們的人，現在讓他們具備了與合適的合作夥伴進行業務往來的資格。這就是他們想要的。而對我們來說，我們合作的運營商的品質標準非常高。

This is not something that we just started doing because of the thorough mandates. If you go on and you look at our website, you can't go on and start a trucking company and do business with today. A lot of the large brokerages, you can go on and start doing business with today. We want to be able to monitor your safe site score. We want to be able to see a history of what you've done.

這並不是因為有了明確的指令，我們才開始這麼做的。如果你繼續瀏覽我們的網站，你會發現你今天還不能創辦一家貨運公司並與我們開展業務。很多大型經紀公司，你今天就可以開始和它們開展業務。我們希望能夠監控您的網站安全評分。我們希望能夠看到你過往的工作記錄。

A lot of other brokers, you can go out there and you can do your first loads with them digitally. And while digital is an important aspect of being able to do freight. The first thing that we want to do is get to know the carriers that we're doing business with. So we don't allow your first few loads to be booked digitally. We want to know who we're doing business with has come on to the platform.

很多其他經紀商，你可以去那裡，然後透過數位化方式完成你的第一筆交易。數位化是開展貨運業務的重要面向。我們首先要做的是了解與我們開展業務的承運商。因此，我們不允許您透過電子方式預訂前幾次運送。我們想知道與我們做生意的人是否已經進駐該平台。

We built the business off of high cargo value off of automotive. So the vetting process for carriers for us has always been very strict. It always been above federal guidelines. And so we think we're in a very good position to win off of that.

我們以汽車產業的高價值貨物為業務基礎。因此，我們對承運商的審查過程一直非常嚴格。它一直高於聯邦指導方針。因此，我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置，很有可能贏得比賽。

Thank you. That appears to be our last question. I'll turn the conference back to Drew Wilkerson for any additional remarks.

謝謝。看來這是我們最後一個問題了。我將把會議交還給德魯·威爾克森，讓他補充發言。

Thank you, Michael. We're at a squeeze, but I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver out earnings growth over the long term. Our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth best-in-class technology and ability to generate cash are differentiators for RXO. We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade plus.

謝謝你，麥可。我們目前處境艱難，但我仍然對 RXO 長期實現獲利成長的能力充滿信心。RXO 的優勢在於：成本結構得到改善、規模擴大、持續專注於獲利成長、擁有頂尖技術以及能夠創造現金流。我們始終專注於過去十多年來讓我們成功的那些因素。

We provide exceptional service a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology and customer relationships. Thank you all for your time today and look forward to seeing you soon.

我們提供卓越的服務、全面的解決方案、尖端技術和良好的客戶關係。感謝各位今天抽出時間，期待很快能再見到你們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。