Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHB) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Rush Enterprises Reports first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位早安,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Rush Enterprises 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, Rusty Rush, Chairman, CEO and President. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把會議交給今天的講者——董事長、執行長兼總裁 Rusty Rush。請開始。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, good morning, and welcome to our first quarter 2026 earnings release call. With me on the call this morning are Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer; Jody Pollard, Chief Operating Officer; Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

    各位早安,歡迎參加我們 2026 年第一季財報發布電話會議。今天早上與我一同在線上的有:財務長 Steve Keller;營運長 Jody Pollard;副總裁兼財務控管長 Jay Hazelwood;以及資深副總裁、總法律顧問兼公司秘書 Michael Goldstone。

  • Before I get started, Steve will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

    在我開始之前,Steve 會先就前瞻性陳述說幾句話。

  • Steven Keller - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Steven Keller - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

    我們今天將作出的某些陳述,依據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》(Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)的定義,屬於前瞻性陳述。由於這些陳述包含風險與不確定性,我們的實際結果可能與此等前瞻性陳述所明示或暗示者有重大差異。

  • Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    可能導致實際結果與此等前瞻性陳述所明示或暗示者有重大差異的重要因素,包括但不限於我們截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 Form 10-K 年報,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的其他文件中所討論者。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Steve, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. As we reported yesterday, we generated revenues of $1.68 billion in the first quarter with net income of $61.5 million or $0.77 per diluted share. We also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.19 per share, which reflects our continued focus on returning value to shareholders.

    謝謝你,Steve,也謝謝各位今天加入我們。正如我們昨天所報告的,我們第一季營收為 16.8 億美元,淨利為 6,150 萬美元,或稀釋後每股盈餘 0.77 美元。我們也宣告每股 0.19 美元的季度現金股利,反映我們持續專注於為股東回饋價值。

  • Now stepping back for a minute, the first quarter was still a tough environment for the commercial vehicle market. Industry-wide retail sales for new trucks remained at historically low levels, and we're still working through the effects of the freight recession, excess capacity and general economic uncertainty.

    稍微退一步來看,第一季對商用車市場而言仍是艱困的環境。全產業新卡車零售銷量仍處於歷史低檔,我們也仍在消化貨運衰退、產能過剩以及整體經濟不確定性的影響。

  • That said, we do believe this quarter represents the trough of the cycle. And more importantly, we're starting to see some early signs that things are moving in the right direction. Freight rates improved a bit, miles driven began to pick up and customer sentiment started to feel a little more optimistic.

    儘管如此,我們確實認為本季代表景氣循環的谷底。更重要的是,我們開始看到一些早期跡象顯示情勢正朝正確方向發展。運價略有改善、行駛里程開始回升,客戶情緒也變得稍微更樂觀。

  • As a result, we saw increased quoting activity and order intake as the quarter progressed, especially from our large fleet customers. That hasn't translated into sustained strength in truck sales yet, but it's a good leading indicator and gives us confidence that demand is starting to come back.

    因此,隨著季度推進,我們看到報價活動與接單量增加,尤其來自大型車隊客戶。這尚未轉化為卡車銷售的持續走強,但這是一個良好的領先指標,讓我們對需求正在回來更有信心。

  • One thing that stood out again this quarter is the strength of our business model. Even with soft truck sales, our aftermarket leasing and rental businesses, along with disciplined expense management, helped us stay very profitable and perform well overall. We also stayed focused on growing the business.

    本季再次凸顯的一點,是我們商業模式的韌性。即使卡車銷售疲弱,我們的售後市場、租賃與租車業務,加上嚴謹的費用管理,仍幫助我們維持相當高的獲利能力並整體表現良好。我們也持續專注於成長業務。

  • During the quarter, we signed an agreement to acquire Peterbilt dealerships in Southern Louisiana and Mississippi. We expect to close that deal and begin operating those locations at Rush Truck Centers in June. So even in a down cycle, we continue to invest in the business, expanding into new markets and positioning ourselves for long-term growth.

    本季期間,我們簽署協議,將收購路易斯安那州南部與密西西比州的 Peterbilt 經銷據點。我們預期於 6 月完成交割,並由 Rush Truck Centers 開始營運這些據點。因此,即使在景氣下行循環中,我們仍持續投資業務,拓展新市場並為長期成長做好布局。

  • Our aftermarket business continues to be a key strength for us. It made up roughly 66% of our gross profit in the quarter and generated $627 million in revenue, up slightly year-over-year. Demand was still soft in the sub segments, especially for some of our over-the-road customers. But overall, we were able to deliver growth, which speaks to the strength of our relationships and our execution.

    我們的售後市場業務仍是關鍵強項。本季其約占我們毛利的 66%,並創造 6.27 億美元營收,年增略有上升。各子領域需求仍偏疲弱,尤其是部分長途運輸客戶。不過整體而言,我們仍能實現成長,這反映我們關係的穩固以及執行力。

  • We also started to see some positive indicators here, more freight activities and more miles being driven, which should translate into stronger parts and service demand as customers began catching up on deferred maintenance. Our aftermarket strategic initiatives are also making a difference.

    我們也開始看到一些正向指標:更多貨運活動與更多行駛里程,這應會在客戶開始補上先前延後的保養維修時,轉化為更強的零件與服務需求。我們的售後市場策略性計畫也正在發揮作用。

  • Our inspection processes and parts delivery optimization have gained traction across our network and are delivering incremental revenue, increasing uptime for our customers and delivering a better experience overall. Looking ahead, we expect the aftermarket to gradually improve as we move through the year and continue to be a key driver for our performance.

    我們的檢查流程與零件配送最佳化已在整個網路中取得進展,帶來增量營收、提升客戶車輛稼動時間,並整體提供更好的體驗。展望未來,我們預期售後市場將隨著年度推進而逐步改善,並持續成為我們表現的關鍵驅動力。

  • Turning to truck sales. The market was still very tough in the first quarter with Class 8 industry sales at their lowest level since COVID. But even in that environment, we performed well. We sold 2,964 Class 8 trucks in the US and captured a 7.2% market share. That really comes down to execution, having the right inventory and the diversity of our customer base.

    接著談卡車銷售。第一季市場仍非常艱困,Class 8 全產業銷量降至 COVID 以來最低水準。但即便在這樣的環境下,我們仍表現良好。我們在美國售出 2,964 輛 Class 8 卡車,取得 7.2% 的市占率。這主要歸功於執行力、合適的庫存,以及客戶基礎的多元性。

  • As I mentioned earlier, we saw solid order activity and increased engagement from customers during the quarter. We think that's being driven by improving freight conditions and customers beginning to plan for 2027 engines emissions regulations.

    如我先前提到的,本季我們看到穩健的訂單活動與客戶互動提升。我們認為這是由貨運狀況改善,以及客戶開始為 2027 年引擎排放法規做規劃所帶動。

  • Class 4 through 7 truck sales saw the worst demand since 2015, but our results were more about timing than demand. Some large fleet customers pushed deliveries into later in the year. So we expect that to benefit us in the coming quarter. Used truck demand improved as we moved through the quarter, and we're seeing better conditions tied to improving spot rates and tighter capacity.

    Class 4 到 7 的卡車銷售需求為 2015 年以來最差,但我們的結果更多是時點因素而非需求問題。一些大型車隊客戶把交車延後到今年稍晚。因此我們預期這將在接下來一季對我們有利。二手卡車需求在本季後段有所改善,我們也看到與現貨運價改善及運能趨緊相關的更佳市場條件。

  • So overall, while the first quarter was slow, we expect sales to improve gradually in the second quarter and then pick up in the second -- pick up more in the second half of the year. Renewal leasing continue to be strong and growing part of our business. Revenue was $92 million in the quarter, up a little over 2% year-over-year. Leasing demand remains strong as customers look to replace aging equipment and get ahead of cost increases tied to the upcoming emissions regulations.

    因此整體而言,雖然第一季偏慢,我們預期第二季銷售將逐步改善,並在下半年——在下半年加速回升。續約租賃仍然強勁,且是我們業務中持續成長的一部分。本季租賃營收為 9,200 萬美元,年增略高於 2%。隨著客戶希望汰換老舊設備,並提前因應即將到來的排放法規所帶來的成本上升,租賃需求仍維持強勁。

  • Rental is below where we'd like it to be, driven by current market conditions, but it did improve as the quarter progressed, and we expect utilization to continue trending up through the year. Overall, Rush Truck Leasing continues to generate consistent reoccurring revenue and remains an important contributor to our performance.

    租車業務低於我們希望達到的水準,主要受目前市場狀況影響,但隨著季度推進已有改善,我們預期使用率將在今年持續走升。整體而言,Rush Truck Leasing 持續帶來穩定的經常性收入,並仍是我們表現的重要貢獻者。

  • So to wrap it up, the first quarter reflected the ongoing pressure from the freight recession and weak truck demand, but we delivered solid earnings and profitability. That speaks to the strength and balance of our business. We believe we're at the bottom of the cycle, and we're encouraged by early signs we are seeing, whether that's freight, customer activity or order trends. As conditions continue to improve, we believe we're well positioned to capture that demand and grow the business.

    總結來說,第一季反映了貨運衰退與卡車需求疲弱所帶來的持續壓力,但我們仍交出穩健的獲利與盈利能力。這說明我們業務的韌性與均衡性。我們相信已處於循環底部,且對我們看到的早期跡象感到鼓舞,無論是貨運、客戶活動或訂單趨勢。隨著環境持續改善,我們相信自己已做好準備把握需求並推動業務成長。

  • Before I close, I want to thank our employees across the company. Their focus, discipline and commitment to our customers continue to drive our performance, especially in a very challenging environment like this.

    在我結束之前,我要感謝公司各地的員工。他們的專注、紀律以及對客戶的承諾,持續推動我們的表現,尤其是在像這樣極具挑戰的環境中。

  • With that, I'll take your questions.

    接下來我將回答各位的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Avi Jaroslawicz, UBS.

    UBS 的 Avi Jaroslawicz。

  • Avinatan Jaroslawicz - Analyst

    Avinatan Jaroslawicz - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys. So glad to see that the year is still on track for improvement sequentially. But just thinking about the second half here, it sounds like there's still a decent amount of uncertainty around the prebuy for this year on just a number of fronts, whether the OEMs are going to have new engines ready and how the rules are going to be enforced and the demand dynamics around that. Can you just give us a rundown on how those different moving parts are shaping your expectations?

    各位早安。很高興看到今年仍按部就班、呈現逐季改善。不過談到下半年,聽起來今年的「提前購買」(prebuy)在多個面向仍有相當不確定性,包括 OEM 是否能準備好新引擎、規則將如何執行,以及相關的需求動態。你們能否概述一下這些不同變動因素如何形塑你們的預期?

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, that's a good statement there, Avi. It's kind of crazy. We're at April 30 tomorrow. We've got eight months left in the year, and we still don't have definitive regulations printed, okay? Now when I'm talking about emissions regulations, they have sent out signals and told people the EPA has of what they're going to do, right?

    Avi,你這個說法很到位,情況確實有點瘋狂。明天就是 4 月 30 日了,今年還剩 8 個月,但我們仍沒有看到明確、正式印行的法規,好嗎?我在談排放法規時,EPA 的確已經釋出訊號,告訴大家他們打算怎麼做,對吧?

  • They're going to keep supposedly at 0.35, but they have not clarified about credits, et cetera, if there's going to be NCPs, things like that. We're probably still 60 days away from it. But regardless of that, we do know that there are going to be new emissions regulations. So I think that's spurred customers to go ahead.

    他們據說會維持在 0.35,但對於抵換額度(credits)等事項、是否會有 NCPs 之類的安排,仍未釐清。我們可能還要再等 60 天左右。但不管怎樣,我們確實知道新的排放法規一定會上路。我認為這已促使客戶提前行動。

  • Order activity, as you can see, starting in December has been up dramatically from where it was the prior seven or eight months from an order intake. So even with that uncertainty, there is certainty of something going down. Exactly what it is, we're not exactly sure because it hasn't been posted by the EPA yet.

    從接單量來看,如你所見,自 12 月起訂單活動相較前 7、8 個月大幅上升。因此即便存在不確定性,仍可以確定的是:一定會有事情發生。至於究竟是什麼,我們並不完全確定,因為 EPA 還沒有正式公布。

  • So we'll still have to follow that and see. We hope to know within the next 45 to 60 days. But if I've been -- if I told you that 45 days ago and held my breath, I wouldn't be in very good shape because I told you I'd know by now. So it keeps the can kicked down the road a little bit. So I think the most important thing is that customers' business is people are more optimistic.

    所以我們仍得持續追蹤並觀察。我們希望在接下來 45 到 60 天內能知道。但如果我——如果我在 45 天前就跟你說 45 天內會知道,然後一直憋著氣等,我現在狀況可不會太好,因為我當時說我現在就會知道了。結果就是事情又被往後拖了一點。所以我認為最重要的是,客戶的業務——人們變得更樂觀了。

  • Finally, because of the contraction on the supply side, right, of taking trucks out, whether it was through non-domicile because building less trucks in the back half of last year, building less trucks in the first quarter of this year. We slowed the intake down. So the supply side squeezed down. Customers are more optimistic about rates.

    最後,因為供給端的收縮,對吧,把卡車抽離市場,不論是因為非本土(non-domicile)的因素,或是因為去年下半年造車量減少、今年第一季造車量也減少。我們放慢了接單速度。所以供給端被擠壓下來。客戶對運價更樂觀。

  • Coming in, if you'd asked me three or four months ago, everybody said, I know this is one of your question, but you know me, I'm going to ramble on, that we're going to be flat to low singles and it was mid-singles. Now people are looking at maybe high single-digit increases. So people are optimistic.

    回頭看,如果你在三、四個月前問我,大家都說——我知道這也是你其中一個問題,但你也了解我,我會多講幾句——我們會是持平到低個位數成長,而當時其實是中個位數。現在大家在看,可能會有高個位數的增幅。所以大家是樂觀的。

  • At the same time, to your point, about emissions, not knowing clearly what it's going to be, what the stated, but we do know it's going to be worse, whether there would be NCPs and the cost would go up dramatically or the total enforcement of what's out there for EPA January '27. So that's about the best thing I can tell you is there's still uncertainty, but you know something is coming down the tracks, right? You just don't know exactly what.

    同時,回到你提到的排放問題,因為不清楚最後會是什麼、正式表述會怎麼寫,但我們知道會更嚴格;不論是會有 NCP,導致成本大幅上升,或是對 EPA 2027 年 1 月現行規範的全面執法。所以我能告訴你最貼近現況的是:仍然存在不確定性,但你知道有些事情正在逼近,對吧?只是你不知道確切會是什麼。

  • Avinatan Jaroslawicz - Analyst

    Avinatan Jaroslawicz - Analyst

  • Got it. I appreciate that, Rusty. And just to follow on a point there. So thinking about the improving conditions within the freight market, as you just noted, really more driven by supply reductions, capacity reductions, that doesn't necessarily help the parts and service side as much as improving freight activity. So what are you seeing there? And when do you think we might see parts and service volumes inflect positively?

    了解。我很感謝你,Rusty。我再追問一點。你剛提到貨運市場狀況改善,主要其實是由供給縮減、運能縮減所驅動,這不一定像貨運活動回升那樣,能同等程度帶動零件與維修服務端。那你那邊看到的是什麼?你認為我們何時可能看到零件與服務量出現正向拐點?

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. It's funny. People -- theoretically, people believe that when truck sales go down, okay, that you're going to get more parts and service. Well, that's not really actually the case because people are cutting back their budgets and things. And that's what we've seen, right?

    是的。這很有趣。理論上,人們會認為當卡車銷量下滑時,好,你會得到更多零件與維修服務。但實際上並不是那樣,因為大家在縮減預算等等。而這正是我們看到的情況,對吧?

  • That's why we've been fairly flat over the last couple of three quarters, right? Even in spite of inflation we've had, we've remained flat. And that's because people have tightened their belts. The best thing I can see is for their business to get better, right? Historically, when customers feel better about looking forward and more optimistic, there will be no postponing of any maintenance or any repairs because it's just like anything.

    這也是為什麼過去兩三個季度我們基本上相當持平,對吧?即便有通膨,我們仍然維持持平。那是因為大家勒緊褲帶。我能看到最好的情況是他們的生意變好,對吧?歷史上,當客戶對未來感覺更好、更樂觀時,就不會再延後任何保養或維修,因為這就跟任何事情一樣。

  • When your income level goes down, you learn how to take your outcome, what you spend down to. It's no different than you as a person managing your household. So that's what customers have done. The most encouraging thing for me is going to be seeing -- hopefully seeing second and third quarter releases and list and hearing about contract rates going up. So that optimism that we see out there comes to fruition is the best way I can describe it.

    當你的收入水準下降時,你就會學著把支出、花費降到相應水準。這跟你作為個人管理家庭開支沒有不同。所以客戶就是這麼做的。對我來說最令人鼓舞的是——希望能看到第二、第三季的數據發布與相關名單,並聽到合約運價上升的消息。所以我們在外面看到的那種樂觀情緒能夠落地成真,這是我能形容的最佳方式。

  • We expect -- I would tell you this, we've been growing slightly. I'm not happy with it, but we have gradually gone January, February was better than January. March was better than February. And April, it looks like it's going to be a little bit better than March. So I think as conditions improve, not just truck sales, but obviously, parts and service, too, will improve with that.

    我們預期——我會這樣告訴你:我們一直在小幅成長。我不滿意,但我們確實逐步改善:一月、二月比一月好;三月比二月好;四月看起來會比三月再好一點。所以我認為隨著狀況改善,不只是卡車銷售,當然零件與服務也會跟著改善。

  • And that's -- it's just a matter of because tonnage has gone up. Tonnage was up for the first time, I think, in two or three years in February, if I'm not mistaken, I'm not sure where it was in March. But it is getting a little bit better, not just from the supply side, but I think on the other side of the house.

    而且——這只是因為貨運噸數已經上升。若我沒記錯,二月噸數是我想兩、三年來第一次上升;我不確定三月的數字在哪。但它確實在變好,不只是供給端,我認為需求端也在改善。

  • Now people are going to -- we've got a lot of outliers out there. I don't have to tell you what's going on overseas and fuel and all this other stuff. But the general macro, I think, environment for continued improvement at the customer level is it's there without any interruptions from geopolitics or something like that. But -- so I mean, I just do believe that things are going to be better. I don't want people to get -- I believe we're going to be up in some areas, it's going to build through the year.

    現在大家會——外部變數很多。我不用跟你說海外發生什麼、燃料以及其他各種事情。但整體宏觀環境,我認為只要地緣政治或類似事件不造成中斷,客戶端持續改善的條件是存在的。不過——所以我的意思是,我確實相信情況會更好。我不希望大家過度興奮——我相信某些領域會成長,而且會在一年中逐步累積。

  • And because we're on -- and I believe it's not going to go away in '27. My personal belief is I see a nice -- a pretty good four-month run anyway. I'm not going to try to forecast outside of a year, but I feel pretty good about where it is. But it's going to be a gradual -- I just believe it's going to continue to get better based upon conversations I have with many customers and people around the industry.

    而且因為我們正處於——我也相信這不會在 2027 年就消失。我個人認為至少會有一段不錯的走勢——大概四個月左右。我要避免做超過一年的預測,但我對目前的位置感覺相當不錯。不過這會是漸進式的——我就是相信它會持續變好,這是基於我與許多客戶以及產業人士的對話。

  • Avinatan Jaroslawicz - Analyst

    Avinatan Jaroslawicz - Analyst

  • All right. I appreciate that perspective. Thank you, Rusty.

    好的。我很感謝這個觀點。謝謝你,Rusty。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brady Lierz, Stephens.

    Brady Lierz,Stephens。

  • Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

    Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

  • Great, thanks. Morning, Rusty. Thanks for taking our questions. You mentioned that you expect overall commercial vehicle sales to improve gradually. Could you just help us break that out between your heavy-duty and your medium, light duty just because of the weakness in the medium duty in the first quarter, like should we see a more immediate recovery in that versus Class 8? Just any clarity around kind of breaking out those two trends would be helpful.

    很好,謝謝。早安,Rusty。謝謝你回答我們的問題。你提到你預期整體商用車銷售會逐步改善。能否請你協助我們把它拆分成重型與中型、輕型來看?因為第一季中型車偏弱,例如我們是否應該看到中型車比 Class 8 更快、更立即的復甦?任何能釐清這兩個趨勢拆分的資訊都會很有幫助。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Sequentially, yes, because it was so off in Q1, right? Sometimes you get numerator denominator, right? So from a percentage basis, yes, you're going to see medium improve quicker because heavy-duty obviously wasn't off as bad as the market. We were off about 6%, market was 20%, 21%. And we were way off in medium and a lot of it was timing, yes. So sequentially, medium will pick up quicker because we're starting at a lower base, right, if you want to talk about sequential.

    是的。就環比而言,是的,因為第一季掉得太多了,對吧?有時候會出現分子分母效應,對吧?所以以百分比來看,是的,你會看到中型改善得更快,因為重型顯然沒有像市場那麼差。我們大約下滑 6%,市場下滑 20%、21%。而我們在中型端下滑很多,其中很大一部分是時點因素,是的。所以就環比來說,中型會回升得更快,因為我們是從更低的基期開始,對吧?如果你要談環比的話。

  • We -- if I was to look out for the year, I expect a better year on the Class 8 side up over the last year and maybe medium will be closer. It will catch back up to flat maybe for the year. So that bodes pretty well for the next few quarters because we started such a hole on the medium-duty side.

    我們——如果我把視野拉到全年,我預期 Class 8 端會比去年更好,可能中型會比較接近,全年可能回到接近持平。所以這對接下來幾個季度是相當有利的,因為我們在中型端一開始挖了那麼大的坑。

  • But I expect heavy-duty to continue to ramp up, if you want me to throw a number out, say heavy-duty is up 15% in Q2. And if things hold together, we get through all the emissions clarification and business that continues to look better for our customer base, both across the board vocationally and over-the-road.

    但我預期重型會持續爬升;如果你要我丟個數字,比如說第二季重型成長 15%。而且如果各項條件能維持,我們能度過所有排放規範釐清的過程,且客戶基礎的業務持續轉好,不論是工程用車(vocational)還是長途運輸(over-the-road),都是如此。

  • Over-the-road is what we've talked about mainly. We do a lot of vocational business, over-the-road is still the biggest market that's out there, right? You're talking 2/3 of the market. So if that continues to get better for that customer base, we will continue to increase quarter-by-quarter as the year goes, and I believe for sure roll into Q1 because remember, from an emissions perspective, it's all about when the engine was built and usually -- I don't want to get into the weeds. Usually, those engines will be built maybe halfway through January of next year.

    我們主要談的是長途運輸。其實我們也做很多工程用車業務,但長途運輸仍然是最大的市場,對吧?你說的是市場的 2/3。所以如果那個客戶群持續改善,我們會在一年中逐季增加,而且我相信一定會延續到第一季,因為記住,從排放角度來看,關鍵在於引擎的生產時間;通常——我不想鑽太細。通常那些引擎可能會在明年一月中旬左右生產。

  • And because we are the retailer and it takes anywhere from 32 days to 5 months, depending on the type of product it is to get there, that bodes well for us all the way through next year in Q1. And I don't -- if the economy is in good shape and the business is still aligned, look, the number that's going to come out this year probably is not going to be anything more than a normal replacement.

    而且因為我們是零售端,從 32 天到 5 個月不等,取決於產品類型,才能到貨,這對我們一路到明年第一季都很有利。而且我不——如果經濟狀況良好、業務仍然一致,你看,今年出來的數字大概不會超過正常汰換需求。

  • The deal is it's going to be backloaded, right? I mean 41,000 units was all Class 8. It was COVID, second quarter of 2020, I think it was -- second and third quarter of 2020, that's the lowest in six years. And medium was the lowest since 2015. So it wasn't just us, even though we were a little worse on the medium side.

    關鍵是它會集中在下半年,對吧?我的意思是,41,000 台全部都是 Class 8。那是 COVID 的時期,2020 年第二季,我想是——2020 年第二、第三季,那是六年來最低。中型車則是自 2015 年以來最低。所以不只是我們,即便我們在中型端確實更差一些。

  • So when you think about it, with that emissions regulations and improving business conditions, economic conditions for our customer base as long as the geopolitical things stay out of the way, I mean, it's set there to just ramp up slowly. It's not going to be an add water and stir thing just in Q2, but you better believe Q2 better be better than Q1, but it's not going to creep dramatically, but it's going to build.

    所以當你把排放法規與業務狀況改善、以及我們客戶群的經濟條件放在一起看,只要地緣政治不要來攪局,我的意思是,它就會在那裡慢慢爬升。它不會是第二季「加水攪一攪」就立刻完成的事情,但你可以確定第二季一定要比第一季好;不會突然大幅跳升,但會逐步累積。

  • And I believe that's the case across our whole business model, right? I really -- I feel good. There's not one segment that I can sit here right now and tell you, I feel bad about. And I feel good. I'm not going to sit here and feel great like that, but I feel good about the whole thing. I want to watch it continue to evolve. We're still working business, okay? We really are.

    而且我相信這個情況會反映在我們整個商業模式上,對吧?我真的——我感覺不錯。現在沒有任何一個我能坐在這裡告訴你我覺得很糟的部門。我覺得不錯。我不會坐在這裡說我覺得非常棒,但我對整體感覺良好。我想看它持續演變。我們仍在努力推進業務,好嗎?我們確實是。

  • We've been -- we've had -- as I've said, we've had nice order intake with the majority of it going to start coming in, in Q2. I said maybe up 15% on Class 8 and maybe a little more, maybe a little less, but somewhere in that range, the timing rules and all those things, too.

    我們一直——我們已經——如我所說,我們的接單表現不錯,其中大部分將在第二季開始陸續進來。我說過 Class 8 可能上升約 15%,也可能多一點、少一點,但大概就在那個區間;當然也還有時點認列規則以及其他那些因素。

  • But it should build from there through the rest of the year and through Q1 anyway for sure. And typically, hopefully, our parts and service will build, as I told you, has been slowly building. I'm looking forward to seeing it ramp up a little faster, but I don't always have my finger on that trigger.

    不過從那之後應該會在今年剩餘時間持續走高,至少一路到第一季肯定是如此。通常、也希望我們的零件與服務會如我跟你說的那樣持續增加,確實一直在慢慢回升。我期待它能更快加速,但我不一定總能精準掌握那個觸發點。

  • Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

    Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

  • Makes sense. Maybe I just -- for my second question, I just wanted to follow up on an earlier one and maybe ask about it from a different angle. Just the reduction in capacity in the freight market driving the improvement, how do you think, if at all, that affects new truck sales this cycle?

    了解。也許我——我的第二個問題想延續先前的一個問題,換個角度問。貨運市場運能縮減帶動改善,你認為這在本輪週期中,對新卡車銷售會有什麼影響(如果有的話)?

  • Is that a headwind? Or does the emission regulation offset that? Just any thoughts around this kind of competing dynamics would be helpful.

    這會是逆風嗎?還是排放法規會抵消它?關於這些彼此拉扯的動態,你任何想法都會很有幫助。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Well, the first thing was supply, right? You really want the environment to be better from a demand perspective, right? You have supply and you got demand to your point about supply. Supply has been pulled out for really the last three quarters, okay? If you took the last Q3, Q4 and Q1 and strung them together, it's going to scare you how low a retail was from a demand perspective, to be honest with you, it would be under 200,000 units in the US, okay, annualized. But that has taken the supply up. But you need a combination of both, right?

    好。第一件事是供給,對吧?你真正希望的是需求面環境變得更好,對吧?你有供給,也有需求——就像你提到供給那點。供給在過去三個季度其實一直在被抽離,好嗎?如果把上一個第三季、第四季和第一季串在一起,從需求角度看零售量之低會嚇到你,老實說,美國年化會低於 200,000 輛,好嗎?但這確實把供給拉上來了。不過你需要兩者的組合,對吧?

  • So it was nice to see the tonnage bumped up in a couple of the months. I think it was February, I'm not mistaken, if I'm not mistaken. And even though it's not robust, you got both of those, I believe it will continue. And like I said a minute ago, even if we -- there's something like 41,000 in the US, ACT says it will be 225,000, right? Well, it means it's going to have to average 60,000.

    所以看到有幾個月份的貨運噸數回升是件好事。我想是二月,如果我沒記錯的話。即便還談不上強勁,但兩者都有了,我相信會持續。就像我剛剛說的,即使我們——美國目前大概是 41,000(的水準),ACT 說會到 225,000,對吧?那就代表它必須平均到 60,000。

  • So that's a 50% bump, 60,000 a quarter, but it's not going to be loaded like that, it will probably be 50,000 in Q2. And then so that just bumps up Q3 and Q4, right, to even get to that 225,000, which is really under replacement or right at replacement. It's really under replacement. So that is a driver.

    也就是每季 60,000,等於增加 50%,但不會是那樣平均分布;第二季可能是 50,000。那樣一來就把第三季和第四季往上推,對吧?才能達到 225,000,而那其實低於汰換需求或頂多剛好在汰換水準。其實是低於汰換。所以這是一個驅動因素。

  • But people have to -- three years freight recession man, that was -- I've never seen one like that, right? And I felt so sorry for a lot of our customers. I really did. We were fortunate enough with our diversified business model and how we go to market that we don't rely upon one revenue stream. We just haul freight.

    但大家得——三年的貨運衰退,老兄,那——我從沒見過那樣的。我真的替很多客戶感到難過,真的。我們很幸運,因為我們的多元化商業模式以及我們的市場進入方式,讓我們不依賴單一收入來源。我們不是只靠拉貨。

  • No disrespect to my customer base, but we don't. So I've had to watch the suffering for the last three years. So it's just -- I feel better. I feel good for them. I'm kind of watching all the suffering of that over-the-road segment of the customer base, whether it be the small buyer or the large buyer across the board.

    對我的客戶群絕無不敬,但我們不是。所以過去三年我一直看著他們受苦。這就是——我現在感覺好多了,也替他們感到高興。我一直在看著公路長途那一塊客群的痛苦,不管是小買家還是大買家,整體都是如此。

  • But I believe that if demand will hold right, I can't -- I'm not an expert on the demand side. There's too many macroeconomic influences on the demand side. I do know that the average age of fleet is probably a little over half a year or so more than where it should be, where most people like it. I mean I can tell you all these little bit anecdotes that I've got that make me feel good about it.

    但我相信只要需求能撐住,對吧,我——我不是需求面的專家。需求面有太多總體經濟因素在影響。我知道車隊平均車齡大概比應有水準、也就是多數人偏好的水準,可能多了半年左右。我可以跟你講很多我手上這些小小的軼事,讓我對此感覺不錯。

  • And like I said, even if we have a big ramp-up and do 60,000 average 180-plus thousand in the last three quarters, we're still only going to be a replacement cycle. So that's not a huge, big prebuy that scares you going forward from my perspective, which means we should roll through '26 and there won't be this big drop in '27.

    而且如我所說,即便我們大幅爬升、在最後三個季度平均做到 60,000、也就是 180,000 以上,我們仍然只是汰換週期。所以從我的角度看,這不是那種會讓你擔心未來的大規模搶購(prebuy)。也就是說,我們應該能一路延續到 2026 年,而 2027 年不會出現那種大幅下滑。

  • That's my viewpoint on the whole thing as I look at. I know -- I don't know if I answered your question because sometimes, I just answer my own question.

    這就是我看整件事的觀點。我知道——我不知道我有沒有回答到你的問題,因為有時候我只是回答我自己的問題。

  • Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

    Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

  • No, I think you did. And I appreciate it.

    沒有,我覺得你有回答到。我很感謝。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks so much. So we're in good shape. The supply thing is really good because non-domiciled drivers, when we cracked that, it was -- there was a bunch of different anecdotes that have helped try to align that up and get it in line. And now it's not -- and just because we're going to have a little prebuy, I don't want to -- it won't be huge, so it won't get out of balance again. We may have maybe a couple, three years of nice growth across that segment.

    非常感謝。所以我們狀況不錯。供給這件事真的很好,因為非本地(non-domiciled)駕駛那塊,我們把它釐清之後——有一堆不同的軼事案例幫助我們把它對齊、拉回到合理水準。現在不會——而且就算會有一點搶購,我不想——規模不會很大,所以不會再失衡。我們可能會在那個細分市場看到兩到三年的不錯成長。

  • Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

    Brady Lierz - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks so much for the time this morning, Rusty. I'll pass it along.

    謝謝你今天早上的時間,Rusty。我會轉達。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Andrew Obin。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • Maybe we can talk a little bit about -- you sort of talked about parts and services, clearly a focus for the OEM yesterday as well. You have this big initiative with large corporate customers. Can you just talk as to how that initiative is progressing? Are you -- do you think you are outgrowing the industry on parts and services? And what levers do you have to keep outgrowing the industry?

    也許我們可以談談——你剛才提到零件與服務,顯然昨天 OEM 也把它當作重點。你們對大型企業客戶有一個很大的專案/倡議。你能談談這個專案目前進展如何嗎?你覺得你們在零件與服務方面是否跑贏產業?以及你們有哪些槓桿可以持續跑贏產業?

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I would tell you, the first quarter, we were probably close to in line. Everything is crazy to me what I saw across the first quarter. I'm not talking -- I've got pretty good statistics on other dealer groups, okay? But we can get to our manufacturers. And probably the hardest hit piece was service.

    是的。我會告訴你,第一季我們大概接近與產業同步。第一季我看到的一切都讓我覺得很瘋狂。我不是在——我對其他經銷商集團有相當不錯的統計資料,好嗎?而且我們也能從製造商那邊取得。受衝擊最嚴重的部分大概是服務。

  • Service was back for us in Q1, and that's why maybe our margin mix was down a little bit because it comes into a mix, as you know, your margin is much higher on service than parts. But I was nervous. What are we doing wrong, right? But not that it makes you -- I don't want to ride the same boat with everybody else, so don't ever expect that.

    我們第一季的服務業務回落,這也是為什麼我們的毛利組合可能稍微下降,因為如你所知,服務的毛利率遠高於零件。但我很緊張:我們做錯了什麼,對吧?不過——雖然這不會讓你——我不想跟大家坐同一條船,所以別期待我會那樣說。

  • But at least I do know that across what I've been able to track across pretty much a large group of dealers that I was able to get their retail environment. Service was off across the board, 3% to 4%. It was up 4% across a group -- group of 200-some-odd dealers. How about that? I have that information. So it doesn't make me feel any better. We were up a little less than that.

    但至少我知道,根據我能追蹤到的、幾乎涵蓋一大群經銷商的零售環境,服務在整體上都下滑了 3% 到 4%。在一個由 200 多家經銷商組成的群體裡,反而是成長 4%。你看,我有那個資料。所以這並不會讓我覺得比較好。我們的成長略低於那個數字。

  • So -- but it still was interesting that the spend -- customer spend was off in Q1. And it's just the ending of, as I said, tightening your belt, right? People have just tightened their belt the last couple of three quarters. When you asked about the initiative, yes, our initiatives are still there for sure. We grew our national account business, okay?

    所以——但第一季客戶支出下滑仍然很有意思。這就是我說的,勒緊褲帶的尾聲,對吧?過去兩三個季度大家都把褲帶勒得很緊。你問到那個倡議,是的,我們的倡議當然還在。我們的全國性大客戶(national account)業務有成長,好嗎?

  • But at the same time, that was on the parts side. I think people really tightened up on the service piece a lot. When I say that, you can extend maintenance intervals. There's many things you can do. You don't have to fix every oil leak, okay? You don't have to -- you can extend your oil change maintenance interval 5,000 miles or something. As I said earlier, when things are tight, that's what people do.

    但同時,那主要是在零件端。我覺得大家在服務端真的縮得很厲害。我所謂的縮,你可以延長保養間隔;你可以做很多事。你不必修每一個漏油,好嗎?你不必——你可以把換油保養間隔延長 5,000 英里之類的。就像我先前說的,景氣緊的時候,大家就是這麼做。

  • And that's why when their business gets better, people get back into a more normalized part of the cycle, what they do normally, right? They're not squeezing it here and there. So I think that's what we saw in Q1 because service was -- for us was down, too. Parts was up, but our service wasn't down as well. The numbers I pulled from some other folks, but it was close.

    所以當他們的生意變好,大家就會回到更正常化的週期、也就是平常會做的事,對吧?不會在這裡那裡硬擠。我認為第一季我們看到的就是這個,因為服務——我們這邊也下滑。零件是成長的,但我們的服務也下滑。從我向其他人調的數字來看,情況很接近。

  • So it was just -- but as people -- as their business gets better, they'll get back to more normalized spending cycle. And that's what I expect to happen because that's what I think as people -- the spot market folks was up 25%, 30%, okay, year-over-year. So that's a good thing, right? The balance between spot and contract got way better, right? Because spot was so cheap for so long that people that had contracts weren't using that.

    所以就是——但隨著大家——隨著他們的生意變好,他們會回到更正常化的支出週期。我預期會發生,因為我認為——現貨市場(spot market)那群人年增 25%、30%,好嗎?這是好事,對吧?現貨與合約之間的平衡改善很多,對吧?因為現貨價格長期太便宜,以致於有合約的人都不去用現貨。

  • They were using the spot market, right, where they could take advantage and it just spiraled down all the rates over the last three years. But getting a better balance across that right now is allowing folks to be more optimistic. And when they're optimistic, people spend money, okay? That's just the way it works.

    他們一直在使用現貨市場,對吧,在那裡他們可以占到便宜,結果在過去三年把所有運價一路螺旋式往下拉。但現在在這方面取得更好的平衡,讓大家可以更樂觀。而當人們樂觀時,就會花錢,好嗎?事情就是這樣運作的。

  • When your business gets better, you don't worry about doing things that are out of the norm for you. You know what the right things to do, but when things are tough, you squeeze. And it's the same thing we do with our business, no different. I just -- as I've said many times, I just -- I love our business model, whether it's through our leasing or parts or service or sales, we have many different revenue streams that allow us to balance our way through the last three years, two-third of the trucks on the road or over the road, and we managed to produce decent earnings, right?

    當你的生意變好時,你就不會擔心去做一些對你而言不尋常的事。你知道該做什麼,但當情況艱難時,你就會緊縮。我們對自己的業務也是一樣,沒有不同。我只是——我說過很多次了,我只是——我很喜歡我們的商業模式,不管是租賃、零件、維修或銷售,我們有許多不同的收入來源,讓我們在過去三年能夠平衡度過;公路上或長途運輸的卡車有三分之二都在跑,而我們仍然能交出不錯的獲利,對吧?

  • So Andrew, I expect parts and service, all of that initiative is still ongoing. As I said, it was up last year on the parts side. The service side has been my most concerning piece, to be honest with you. Parts was slightly up, and it will get even better through that initiative and many other initiatives that I'm not going to talk about, by the way, that we always have ongoing. That's -- you've always got to have something going, I can tell you that. So we track.

    所以 Andrew,我預期零件與維修,以及所有那些計畫都仍在持續推進。如我所說,去年零件端是成長的。老實跟你說,維修端一直是我最擔心的一塊。零件略有上升,而且透過那個計畫以及許多其他我順帶一提不打算談的計畫,還會更好——我們一直都有在進行。那就是——你永遠得讓某些事情在推進,我可以告訴你。所以我們會追蹤。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • And maybe, Rusty, you have a footprint across the country. You sometimes share with us what you're seeing in terms of macro. Can you just go and just, a, what are you seeing in terms of macro overall and just maybe sort of go on key verticals, right? You clearly have big off-road presence. So what are we seeing in key off-road verticals?

    也許,Rusty,你們在全國各地都有據點。你有時會跟我們分享你在總體面看到的情況。你能不能談一下,a,整體總體環境你看到了什麼,然後也許按關鍵垂直領域來說明一下,對吧?你們顯然在非公路領域的布局很大。所以在關鍵的非公路垂直領域,我們看到了什麼?

  • And then are you seeing any impact in your oil and gas business from higher commodity prices? And clearly, I think we talked of on-road, but just maybe just give us an overview of what you're seeing from a macro perspective in some of your key verticals.

    另外,你在油氣業務上有沒有看到大宗商品價格走高帶來的任何影響?而且我們顯然談過公路端,但也許請你從總體角度,概述一下你在一些關鍵垂直領域看到的情況。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Well, geographically, from a spend perspective, I would tell you that we're up slightly in the first quarter, say, in refuse and construction, right? Most of the other is still -- is not -- it is flat, to be honest with you. We haven't seen that. Our national accounts were pretty flat in Q1. Now they were up last year, and -- but we're not keeping up with -- should I say, with our plan. Our plan was already in the first quarter. It's been -- there's not one huge terrible area, Andrew.

    當然。就地理區域而言,從支出角度我會告訴你,我們第一季在垃圾清運和建築方面略有上升,對吧?其他大多數仍然——老實說——是持平。我們沒有看到明顯變化。我們的全國性客戶(national accounts)在第一季相當持平。去年它們是成長的——但我們沒有跟上——應該說,沒有跟上我們的計畫。我們的計畫在第一季本來就更高。Andrew,沒有哪一個地方特別糟糕。

  • I expect our -- we still suffer our unmanaged accounts. That would probably be the one thing. If you remember what I told you about unmanaged accounts before. That's the small customer, which still makes up 30% or so of our business. And I've got to tell you, it is a little over 30%. It is -- even though it was bad last year, it's down almost another 10% the first quarter of this year.

    我預期我們——我們仍然在未管理帳戶(unmanaged accounts)上受影響。那大概是唯一的一件事。如果你還記得我之前跟你說過未管理帳戶是什麼。那是小型客戶,仍然約占我們業務的30%左右。我得告訴你,略高於30%。即使去年已經很差了,今年第一季又再下滑了將近10%。

  • So -- but we've managed to make it up. We managed to make our revenues up with -- in different sectors, like I said, really vocational has been probably the biggest thing that we managed to keep from a parts and service perspective. When I say that, we're talking about refuse construction, all the vocational businesses from that perspective.

    所以——但我們設法補回來了。我們透過——在不同領域把營收補回來了;就像我說的,從零件與維修的角度來看,職業用車(vocational)可能是我們維持得最好的部分。我說的職業用車,是指垃圾清運、建築,以及從那個角度看的所有職業用車業務。

  • Geographically, I would tell you, we've seen Florida continues to be strong. I didn't touch on oil and gas. We haven't seen that big a bump from oil and gas yet, right? We do expect to possibly see something, but it has not come to fruition yet. I don't want to go through all the regions, but probably -- but Texas is always one of the strongest areas we have along with Florida.

    從地理區域來看,我會說佛羅里達持續強勁。我剛才沒有提到油氣。我們還沒有看到油氣帶來那麼大的增幅,對吧?我們確實預期可能會看到一些,但目前還沒有實現。我不想把所有區域都講一遍,但大概——德州一直是我們最強的地區之一,和佛羅里達一樣。

  • And if I remember right, we were doing fairly well in the Chicago region this year in Northern Illinois region, too also. But I don't want to go through 23 states, but I would tell you that, again, I feel good about all of them that we're going to continue to get gradual improvement without any of this geopolitical stuff getting in the way. I think we're lined up for continued solid, which is actually better than having some huge prebuy, right? It goes on from a sales perspective or everything else.

    如果我沒記錯的話,今年我們在芝加哥地區、北伊利諾伊地區也做得相當不錯。但我不想把23個州都講一遍;我會告訴你的是,再次強調,只要這些地緣政治的事情不要來攪局,我對所有地區都很有信心,我們會持續逐步改善。我認為我們已經準備好維持持續穩健的狀態,而這其實比出現某種巨大的提前購買(prebuy)更好,對吧?不管是從銷售角度或其他一切來看都是如此。

  • I just want to see a consistent solid growth and taking share because taking share is what it's about. And maybe we didn't take as much share as I wanted in Q1, which were slightly better than what I've seen from others, but slightly is not good enough. So we're focused on continuing to do what we've done in the past.

    我只想看到一致且穩健的成長,並且拿下市占,因為拿市占才是重點。也許我們在第一季拿到的市占沒有我想要的那麼多;雖然比我從其他人那裡看到的略好一點,但「略好」還不夠好。所以我們專注於持續做我們過去一直在做的事。

  • We've got some other initiatives we're rolling out. And all I can say is we're ready. We're ready, willing and able and excited to what I believe is going to be the better environment, as I continue to say, without any interruption from something outside of the industry itself.

    我們還有一些其他計畫正在推出。我能說的就是:我們準備好了。我們準備好、願意而且有能力,也很興奮;我相信環境會變得更好——我一直這麼說——前提是不要有任何來自產業外部的干擾。

  • Andrew Obin - Analyst

    Andrew Obin - Analyst

  • Thank you, Rusty.

    謝謝你,Rusty。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • You bet.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Cole Couzens, Wolfe Research.

    Cole Couzens,Wolfe Research。

  • Cole Couzens - Analyst

    Cole Couzens - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Yesterday, PACCAR suggested that recent order strength is perhaps a little misleading and that build rates and retail sales remain more muted and thus, the pricing backdrop remains more competitive right now. What do you think is driving recent order strength? And how sustainable are current order rates in the coming months?

    嗨,各位。昨天,PACCAR 表示近期訂單強勁可能有點誤導,因為產量(build rates)和零售銷售仍較為低迷,因此目前的定價環境仍更具競爭性。你認為近期訂單強勁的驅動因素是什麼?而且未來幾個月目前的訂單速度有多可持續?

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good question, right, because I believe that -- well, not as robust as, say, what we saw in February, which was what was that, 46,000 or something like seventh or eighth best month ever that's happened. I think that was a little overstated driven by one OEM. I do believe there's strength in the order intake.

    好問題,對吧,因為我相信——嗯,沒有像我們在二月看到的那麼強勁;二月是什麼,46,000左右,可能是史上第七或第八好的月份。我認為那有點被高估了,是由一家 OEM 所帶動。但我確實相信訂單流入(order intake)是有力道的。

  • And I do believe as long as we're going to keep bringing up this overseas stuff. As long as that doesn't interfere, I believe there's going to be sustainability to continued solid order intake. Now is that 30,000 a month or something right now? I consider that a pretty good month myself.

    而且我也相信,只要我們一直提到的那些海外因素不造成干擾,我認為持續穩健的訂單流入是可持續的。現在大概是每月30,000左右嗎?我自己覺得那就是很不錯的一個月份。

  • So I don't know -- from our perspective, I can only speak about from -- I can speak for more than that, but I know that what our order intake is and it continues to remain solid with a backlog, right? You don't just wake up one morning and somebody orders a truck from you. There's a process you go through, right, from a quoting and a competitive drop back. And people are still adjusting to all the tariffs, the OEMs, the customers, ourselves that will come part of everyday life, at least we've got -- at least we know what they are.

    所以我不知道——從我們的角度,我只能談——我可以談得更多,但我知道我們的訂單流入是多少,而且它仍然保持穩健,並且有積壓訂單(backlog),對吧?你不會某天早上醒來就有人跟你訂一台卡車。這中間有一個流程,對吧,包括報價以及競爭性的回落(competitive drop back)。而且大家仍在適應所有關稅:OEM、客戶、以及我們自己;這會成為日常生活的一部分,至少我們——至少我們知道它們是什麼。

  • Now our manufacturers understand from their own personal perspective what they are. And so I believe we're going to see continued -- I can't sit here and tell you it's going to stay over 35,000 a month as I said the other. But if it continues at 25,000 to 30,000, we didn't have a month like that for like seven in a row, and we continue that.

    現在我們的製造商也從他們自身角度了解這些是什麼。所以我相信我們會看到持續——我不能坐在這裡告訴你它會一直維持在每月35,000以上,就像我之前說的那樣。但如果它能維持在25,000到30,000之間,我們以前可沒有連續七個月都出現這樣的月份,而現在我們正在延續。

  • So we started from a low base as far as backlog. But I still believe there's going to be continued strength, maybe not as strong as a couple of the months we've seen, but continued order strength. And I think once we continue to get more clarity around emissions and customers' businesses, look, we didn't deliver many trucks the last three quarters, right?

    所以我們是從較低的積壓訂單基礎開始的。但我仍然相信會有持續的力道,可能不會像我們看到的其中幾個月份那麼強,但訂單仍會持續走強。而且我認為,一旦我們對排放規範以及客戶的業務有更清楚的能見度——你看,我們在過去三個季度其實沒有交付很多卡車,對吧?

  • So people -- I know some customers have got off a trade cycle last year, right, that did not buy as much, right? It was last year, the US was 216,000 or something like that. Well, that's under by 20-some-odd thousand what replacement is, and it's continued to be under replacement into Q1.

    所以有些客戶——我知道有些客戶去年脫離了換車週期,對吧,買得沒那麼多。去年美國市場大概是216,000之類的數字。嗯,那比汰換需求(replacement)少了2萬多台,而且在第一季仍然低於汰換需求。

  • And so even without all the outside activity, people have to get back to replacing trucks. It's funny that you think about it. Probably I know people thought, am I even going to be in business because that three-year freight recession. All of a sudden, you wake up, you're getting more optimistic because you think you're going to get better rates, they're not going backwards. They've trough, they're coming back up.

    所以即使沒有所有外部活動,人們也必須回到汰換卡車。想想看很有趣。可能我知道大家曾經想:因為那三年的貨運衰退,我到底還能不能繼續做下去。突然之間,你醒來後變得更樂觀,因為你覺得運價會變好,它們不再往下走。它們已經觸底,正在回升。

  • You see the spot environment. You go, I am going to still be in business. I do need to buy trucks, right? I can't be running old trucks all the time with my maintenance charts through the roof. So I believe there's some natural sustainability to it and you add in the emissions and other stuff that's coming forward on January 1.

    你看到現貨環境,就會想:我還會繼續做下去。我確實需要買卡車,對吧?我不能一直開老車,讓維修保養的數據表一路飆高。所以我相信這本身就有一些自然的可持續性;再加上1月1日即將到來的排放規範和其他事情。

  • And I just believe it's going to continue to be good. I don't know -- I don't think there's going to be this huge prebuy, as I said earlier. But you could consider a prebuy based upon what the first quarter was, how bad the first quarter retail was and how, well really Q4 -- how bad Q4 was, right? So you have to get somewhat back in line.

    而我只是相信情況會持續向好。我不知道——我不認為會出現我先前提到的那種巨大的提前採購(prebuy)。但你也可以從第一季的表現來看待提前採購:第一季零售有多差,以及其實第四季——第四季有多差,對吧?所以你必須在某種程度上把它拉回到比較合理的水平。

  • And the good part is I don't think it's going to just be crazy, right? I think it's going to be solid continued order growth because people's business is -- customers' businesses are getting better. And then the other outside influence of the emissions, which, like I said, we'll hopefully know more, but we know whatever it is, it's coming. So I mean, I hope that helps answer the question. But I feel good about it. And I've said that 100 times, I think, already. I'm not -- and I think it's sustainable for a while myself.

    而好的部分是,我不認為它會變得瘋狂,對吧?我認為會是穩健、持續的訂單成長,因為人們的業務——客戶的業務正在變好。然後還有排放這個外部影響,如我所說,我們希望能知道更多,但我們知道不管它是什麼,它都會來。所以我的意思是,希望這能回答你的問題。但我對此感覺良好。我想我已經說了大概 100 次了。我不是——而且我自己認為這在一段時間內是可持續的。

  • Cole Couzens - Analyst

    Cole Couzens - Analyst

  • That's helpful, Rusty. And maybe just another question. Just in the context of an improving demand backdrop and visibility to higher truck prices next year, when do you think we can start to see truck pricing move higher this year? And is there a gross margin opportunity ahead of the EPA transition to sell older trucks you might have in inventory towards the end of the year or into early 2027?

    這很有幫助,Rusty。也許再問一個問題。在需求背景改善、且對明年卡車價格上調的能見度提高的情況下,你認為今年我們何時能開始看到卡車定價走高?另外,在 EPA 轉換之前,是否存在毛利率機會——在年底或 2027 年初,把你們庫存中可能有的較舊卡車賣出去?

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, when you talk about that, you think about -- trust me, we talk about what inventories were going to carry, right, into the first quarter of next year just because as long as it's built, as that engine stamp dates December 31 are back. So -- and we'll make those determinations.

    嗯,當你談到這個時,你會想到——相信我,我們一直在討論要把哪些庫存帶到明年第一季,對吧?因為只要車已經造好,而那個引擎的打刻日期(stamp date)回到 12 月 31 日——所以——我們會做出那些決定。

  • For us, I mean, as far as the back part of the year, there's still build slots. So I think a lot of OEMs are protecting some of their Q4 build slots because they're trying to push them forward because you can't just go to the suppliers and say, okay, I need three or four months right now. They need to give them a better run rate of that.

    就我們而言,我是說,就今年後半段來看,仍然有生產檔期(build slots)。所以我認為很多 OEM 正在保護他們第四季的一些生產檔期,因為他們試圖把它們往前推;因為你不能就這樣去找供應商說,好吧,我現在就需要三、四個月的量。他們需要更好的、可持續的生產節奏(run rate)。

  • I know the build rates have moved up an OEM or two. I've at least I've been told that. So I mean, from our perspective, we're trying to make sure we're properly inventoried. You got to make sure you got the demand for it, but we would like to be properly inventoried going into next year. I'm still going to sell into this year, too.

    我知道有一兩家 OEM 的產量(build rates)已經上調了,至少我是被這樣告知的。所以從我們的角度來看,我們在努力確保庫存配置得當。你得確保有相應的需求,但我們希望在進入明年時庫存是到位的。今年我也還是會繼續賣。

  • Don't get me wrong. We've done a nice job, but we've still got room to sell in the back half of this year, but we still have activity out there, right? We continue to have activity. When you talk about older trucks, I'm not sure exactly what you mean if you're talking about carrying trucks into next year with these engines, we'll carry some stuff over.

    別誤會我。我們做得不錯,但今年下半年我們仍然有空間可以賣,而且外面仍然有活動,對吧?我們持續看到市場活動。你提到較舊卡車時,我不確定你具體指的是什麼;如果你是指帶著這些引擎把卡車結轉到明年,我們會結轉一些。

  • It won't be -- I can't tell you what that will be, but we're always carrying inventory. So it might ramp. We might carry a little bit more into next year. We just have to wait and see and see how the year plays out because there's still room to build them, right? So I hope that answers your question.

    不會——我無法告訴你那會是多少,但我們一直都會持有庫存。所以它可能會上升。我們可能會在明年結轉多一點。但我們必須再等等,看今年的情況如何發展,因為仍然有空間可以生產它們,對吧?所以希望這回答了你的問題。

  • Cole Couzens - Analyst

    Cole Couzens - Analyst

  • Yes. No, that's helpful. And maybe if I could squeeze one last question.

    是的。不,這很有幫助。也許我可以再塞最後一個問題。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. I'm going back to your conference for the first time in a while.

    當然。我也要回去參加你們的會議了,這是我隔了一段時間第一次回去。

  • Cole Couzens - Analyst

    Cole Couzens - Analyst

  • We're looking forward to it, Rusty. But on SG&A expense, it only increased 2% sequentially in the first quarter. That's a lot better than historical trends in 1Q. Can you maybe talk about the measures you're taking to kind of drive this cost management?

    我們很期待,Rusty。不過關於 SG&A 費用,第一季環比只增加了 2%。這比過去 1Q 的歷史趨勢好很多。你能否談談你們正在採取哪些措施來推動這種成本管理?

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, a lot like our customers, I knew Q1 was going to be a trough. And this is a credit to the entire organization from my management staff down to every technician and everyone in the organization, it doesn't matter what you do. It was tough, right? We had to squeeze down and we did.

    可以。嗯,很多方面跟我們的客戶一樣,我知道第一季會是谷底。這要歸功於整個組織,從我的管理團隊到每一位技師以及組織裡的每一個人,不管你做什麼。那很艱難,對吧?我們必須把成本壓下來,而我們也做到了。

  • It was -- it had to be contributed by a lot of folks. And those are never easy steps to make, right? Because normally, you're right. I mean we were down year-over-year, what, 2.5%, I think. And what -- I'm looking at just G&A. Remember, I know you haven't followed us for long, but I separate S over here because S is always just a derivative from truck sales, right? That's the commission piece off of truck sales.

    那——需要很多人的貢獻。而那些從來都不是容易做出的步驟,對吧?因為通常你說得對。我的意思是,我們年對年下降了多少,2.5% 吧,我想。而且——我現在只看 G&A。記住,我知道你沒有跟我們很久,但我把 S 單獨拆出來,因為 S 永遠只是卡車銷售的衍生項,對吧?那是來自卡車銷售的佣金部分。

  • The G&A piece is what we were focused. And G&A by itself was off 2.5% in spite of inflation, in spite of normal raises last year, in spite of everything else. But that's the contributions by everybody. As business, we're going to try to maintain that discipline. That's always the hardest part, is maintain if you get into a growing environment.

    我們聚焦的是 G&A 這一塊。而且單看 G&A,在通膨之下、在去年正常加薪之下、在其他一切因素之下,仍然下降了 2.5%。但那是大家共同貢獻的結果。隨著業務發展,我們會努力維持這種紀律。最難的永遠是:一旦進入成長環境,還能不能維持。

  • We're not in a growing environment yet. I talked about it all. I can see it coming, okay? We got to get that parts and service business back because that's really what I'm driving it off of, not so much truck sales, truck sales and truck sales. That G&A is driven by what we do in the parts and service business.

    我們現在還不在成長環境。我都談過了。我看得到它正在到來,好嗎?我們必須把零件與維修(parts and service)業務拉回來,因為我真正推動的是這個,而不只是卡車銷售、卡車銷售、卡車銷售。G&A 是由我們在零件與維修業務中做的事情所驅動的。

  • So I appreciate from everyone's efforts in giving in that first quarter and what we had to do, made it tougher. We had to do cutbacks. But we did them, we executed, and we've done it before. And it's just part of being a somewhat cyclical business. Sometimes you have to make those tough decisions right and squeeze it back.

    所以我很感謝大家在第一季的付出,以及我們必須做的事情,讓情況更艱難。我們不得不做削減。但我們做了、我們執行了,而且我們以前也做過。這就是某種程度上屬於週期性行業的一部分。有時你必須做出那些艱難的決定,把它再壓回來。

  • So hopefully, our parts and service will continue to go up, and we love that. We love to be able to hire back some stuff again that parts and service business continues to go up. We want to keep the gross we get, mind you, but it takes -- there's a cost to doing it, right? We always tell everybody, we're trying to keep at least 40%, 50% of every gross profit dollar of parts and service, but it takes people to make it happen.

    所以希望我們的零件與維修會持續上升,而我們也喜歡這樣。我們很樂意在零件與維修業務持續上升時,再把一些人手招回來。當然,我們也希望保住我們拿到的毛利,但你要知道,做到這些是有成本的,對吧?我們一直跟大家說,我們希望零件與維修的每一塊毛利美元,至少能保留 40%、50%,但要讓它發生需要人。

  • So when that starts to grow, we'll be able to maybe add some folks to help us. It's a chicken and egg thing. But it was a great job by our team to do that. It wasn't me or anything that I did. It was just an overall effort throughout the organization, realizing how tough the quarter was going to be going into it.

    所以當它開始成長時,我們也許就能增加一些人來幫忙。這有點像先有雞還是先有蛋。但我們團隊能做到這點真的很棒。不是我或我做了什麼,而是整個組織的共同努力,大家都意識到在進入第一季之前,這一季會有多艱難。

  • So I'm just extremely proud of the entire organization and their execution. And I look forward to hopefully a little more breathing room as we get downstream without having to be quite so hard and tight on everybody.

    所以我對整個組織及其執行力感到非常自豪。我也期待隨著我們往後走,能有多一點喘息空間,而不必對每個人都那麼嚴苛、那麼緊。

  • Cole Couzens - Analyst

    Cole Couzens - Analyst

  • Super helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks, Rusty.

    非常有幫助。我把時間交回去。謝謝你,Rusty。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, look forward to seeing you folks a couple of weeks.

    好的,期待幾週後見到各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the call back over to Rusty for closing remarks. Go ahead, please.

    謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話交回給 Rusty 做結語。請開始。

  • W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    W. M. Rush - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, I just want to appreciate everybody joining us this morning, and we will look forward to speaking to everybody in July, and we'll discuss Q2 and see if everything is still -- the outlook is the same. I'm banking on it. See you. Thank you. Bye-bye.

    是的。嗯,我只想感謝大家今天早上加入我們,我們期待在 7 月再與大家通話,屆時我們會討論第二季,看看一切是否仍然——展望是否相同。我是這麼押注的。再見。謝謝。拜拜。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining today's program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參加今天的節目。您現在可以斷線。