Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHB) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Rush Enterprises Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-end Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

I would now like to hand it over to your speaker today, Rusty Rush, CEO, President and Chairman of the Board. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to Rush Enterprises Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. With me on the call today are Jason Wilder, Chief Operating Officer; Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer; Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

Before we begin, Steve will provide some forward-looking statements disclaimer.

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Thanks, Steve. As we reported in our earnings release for 2025, we generated revenues of $7.4 billion and net income of $263.8 million or $3.27 per diluted share. In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenues were $1.8 billion and net income was $64.3 million or $0.81 per diluted share. I am also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $0.19 per share.

2025 was another challenging year for the commercial vehicle industry. Freight rates remained under pressure, excess capacity continued to be a factor and customers face uncertainty around trade policy and emissions regulations. All these factors negatively impacted demand, particularly for new trucks in the over-the-road segment and also created a more difficult aftermarket environment. Despite these conditions, I am proud of how our team performed.

We remain disciplined, generated strong cash flow, managed expenses effectively and continued investing in the long-term growth of our business. Toward the end of the fourth quarter, we began to see improvement in new Class 8 truck demand. Quoting activity and order intake both increased, and that momentum has carried into the first quarter. We believe a key driver of this improvement has been increased clarity, particularly around tariffs and the EPA's anticipated confirmation of the 2027 NOx standard. With some of that uncertainty behind them, fleets are beginning to plan for the future -- for future vehicle replacement cycles again.

We also continue to expand our network in 2025. We acquired IC bus dealerships in Ontario, Canada with an area of responsibility that includes the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. In addition, we added a full-service Peterbilt dealership in Tennessee with Rush Truck Centers Nashville Central. These strategic additions strengthen our footprint and enhances our ability to support customers over the long term.

Turning to the aftermarket. Parts and service and collision center revenues totaled $2.5 billion for the year, essentially flat compared to 2024. And our annual absorption ratio was 130.7% compared to 132.2% in 2024. In the fourth quarter, aftermarket revenues were $625.2 million, up from $606.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. And absorption was 129.3% compared to 133% in the prior year period.

While aftermarket conditions were challenging in 2025, we continue to see strength in key customer segments such as the public sector and medium-duty leasing. Our focus on operational efficiency, reducing dwell time improving parts delivery and strengthening service execution also supported our performance. Demand remained soft in January, but we are beginning to see signs of improvement. As fleet utilization increases and customers address deferred maintenance and aging equipment, we expect parts and service demand to strengthen.

Looking at vehicle sales, we sold 12,432 new Class 8 trucks in 2025, representing 5.8% of the US market. In Canada, we sold 338 new Class 8 trucks, representing 1.4% of the Canadian market. As I mentioned earlier, demand was soft for much of the year, particularly among over-the-road fleets. However, demand from our vocational and public sector customers remained relatively stable. Helping offset some of the weakness in the over-the-road segment and highlighting the benefit of our diversified customer base. ACT is forecasting new US Class 8 retail sales of 211,300 units in 2026.

We believe the first quarter will represent the trough for Class A retail sales, and we are encouraged by recent improvements in order intake. Fleet ages remain elevated by historical standards, and we expect replacement demand to increase as the year progresses.

With respect to medium-duty commercial vehicles, new US Class 4 through 7 retail sales totaled 217,412 units in 2025, down 15.6% compared to 2024. Despite that decline, we sold 12,285 new Class 4 through 7 commercial vehicles in the US, down 8.5%, significantly outperforming the industry and increasing our market share to 5.7%.

In Canada, we sold 993 new Class 5 through 7 commercial vehicles, representing 6.3% of the Canadian market. We continue to be pleased with our medium-duty performance. We believe our diverse customer mix and ready-to-roll strategy continue to differentiate us from our competitors. ACT is forecasting US Class 4 through 7 retail sales of 218,225 units in 2026, up slightly compared to 2025.

While we remain cautious given weak order intake over the past several months and broader economic uncertainty, we are beginning to see improved quoting activity, and we are well positioned to fulfill orders as customers move forward with purchasing decisions.

We sold 6,977 used trucks in 2025, down 1.9% compared to 2024 as freight rates improve and prebuy activity builds ahead of future emissions regulations, we expect used truck demand to improve in 2026. Our leasing and rental business delivered another solid year. Leasing and rental revenues totaled $369.6 million in 2025, an increase of 4.1% compared to 2024. In the fourth quarter, leasing rental revenue increased 3.6% year-over-year. This business continues to benefit from the strength of our full-service leasing operations, supported by strong customer demand and a younger fleet.

From a capital allocation perspective, we remain disciplined and continue to return capital to shareholders. During 2025, we repurchased $193.5 million of our common stock. We also announced a new stock repurchase program authorizing the company to repurchase up to $150 million of common stock through December 31, 2026. In addition, we returned $58 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividend program, a 5.6% increase compared to 2024.

These actions reflect the strength of our balance sheet and our confidence in the long-term outlook for our business. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect market conditions to remain challenging in the first quarter, but we are optimistic about the remainder of the year. With fleet ages elevated and maintenance needs increasing, we expect both commercial vehicle sales and aftermarket conditions to improve as we move into the second quarter. While we cannot control the pace of the market recovery, we can control our execution.

We believe we are well positioned to respond quickly and effectively to our customers' needs as conditions improve. Historically, when the cycle turns, demand for both new commercial vehicles and aftermarket parts and service rebounds quickly, and we believe the strategic investments we have made over the past several years will help us serve customers better and gain market share. Finally, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment through 2025. This was a very demanding year, and their focus and execution were critical to our performance.

With that, we will open it up for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Brady Lierz, Stephens.

I wanted to maybe start unsurprisingly on Class 8. As you mentioned in your prepared remarks, we've seen an improvement in orders late in '25 and here early in 2026. But can you just kind of talk about what you're hearing from your customers? Are you expecting this to be a pretty meaningful prebuy here in 2026 ahead of the '27 regulations? Just any clarity there would be helpful.

Sure. I'd be happy to. The answer would be cautiously, maybe not even cautiously, optimistic that yes, there will be a prebuy before we get into the 2027 emissions regulations based upon not just the regulations, right? But you can incorporate regulations all you want. I was around -- you probably was still in high school back in 2009 and '10 when we went to SCR, we were supposed to have this big buy and buying. Obviously, it was the worst year in 40 years, right?

We had a little economic problem going on. But -- so what I'm reflecting on is not just the fact that the 2027 emissions, but the fact that their business is improving. And I'm not going to get ahead of myself and say it's like accelerating or ramping up rapidly, but it is improving, especially over the last 90 days. I don't have to tell you, spot rates have been up. If I ask six months ago, most people would have thought going into the year, contract rates were probably going to be flat.

Now people are hoping to get contract rates up mid-singles, right? That line between spot and contract has moved nicely where spot was so much lower before. So your business has to be good. So you got to -- and I'm not going to say it's great, but you at least need to be able to see forward, right? And that's important. We had so much uncertainty last year with regulations, with EPA regulations, with tariffs and everything else. So now you can focus on these regulations and do it while your business is gradually getting better.

It may not be reflected in all the first quarter reports, but I think most customers feel that their business is improving when you talk about -- we're talking about over-the-road customers right now because that still is the biggest segment, even though we're more diversified than most folks when it comes to vocational and over the road.

But we still need that over-the-road customer to be solid, right? -- because it's the biggest piece of what you do still. And so combining some -- most -- we don't have full clarity, but we know we're not changing it. We know it's going to be [35]. The government, when I talking about NOx, and stuff. So we realize that's going to be there. There's a little -- they haven't clarified everything, but you pretty much know what the cost is. And when you're doing something like this, the cost is one thing.

It's a little bit new after-treatment systems, and I watched in 2010 when every particular filter was clogged up when we came out of SCR back in '10. So I'm sure there's a lot of people that still remember that you can have issues when you come out. So I'm just giving you background. So you combine the EPA issue, clarity on tariffs, which has given clarity to pricing throughout this year, which we did not have last year and their business getting better. So I am optimistic that the issue will be this. The issue will be we're going to run out of time.

So it's already -- we're, what, 8 days away, 9 days, 10 days away, excuse me, from the end of this month, I apologize. And we'll be into March already. So I do expect order intake to remain what we've seen over the last couple of months in that range, if not maybe even a little more because I think people are lining up. So I do believe Class 8 order intake is going to continue solid. You got to remember, we had five- or six-month run last year, a six-month run that was close to being less than the last two months, five months for sure, were close to being less than the last two months.

So I mean, all that -- I know it's a long-winded answer, but you folks are used to my long-winded answers. I try to give you a full perspective here. Yes, the emission piece is there. Yes, that's important. But it's also important that people can at least see a little further in their business to have clarity, which we didn't have.

So the combination of the 2, yes, I think we're going to get -- and I think you -- you may run into a problem, a supply problem with Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers. We're not there yet by any stretch because there was a lot of backlog to fill up. But it will be interesting to see where we are 60 days from now.

So I mean a lot of customers are realizing they better -- I think some customers, I know they are, that they better get on board now and not wait until summer or we may run out -- it's hard to ramp up for that shorter period of time. OEMs will ramp up, but there's only so much you can do when you don't have clarity past January 1 really. But I don't see -- just going further, I don't see '27 to be a huge drop off either because we're going to get started. It's going to be -- we're going to get started light here in Q1, okay? There's no question, lighter than we were last year in Q1. So you start in a whole -- so the year could be similar, maybe slightly up, but it's going to be packed into the back three quarters of the year, should you say? -- should.

No, that's all very helpful color. Maybe we could just talk about parts and service for a second. Typically, you see a pretty nice sequential step-up in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. But has the severe winter weather we've seen this year impacted that at all? Just want to get any thoughts there. And then if you could just talk about some of your strategic initiatives in parts and service. You've mentioned in the past, growing the technician headcount most. Just how are those initiatives progressing?

Yes. Well, I'm not going to say, as I mentioned earlier, January was a tough month. When you ask about the freezers, we were going to shut down for about a week in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and some other areas, we were -- down in the south, they don't know how to handle ice and snow. I can tell you, it's not like -- it's funny that weather -- cold weather is good for your parts and service business, say, in Chicago they're used to handling it. They got snowblowers. They don't have any snowblowers in Dallas, nothing iced over for five days, okay? We were almost shut.

We really -- we were running skeleton crew. It was detrimental, let me tell you, to our southern stores in some areas. So that's why January was a real tough one. We're starting to see life, a little more life. As I've said all my life, if I could just get rid of November through February, but I'm -- we're from the South originally here from Texas.

And if I could just get rid of November through February, I would have except for Christmas and Thanksgiving. But we're getting to the end of it, and we're starting to see it's typical seasonality, I would tell you, it was so soft in January and was soft in November and December from -- that's seasonal.

That's not something we don't deal with in the past. January was probably softer than it usually was because some of our bigger areas on the Peterbilt side were down -- which are further south, got frozen up a little bit. So we don't operate some of these places don't operate well on that. But I think it's just normal. We'll be -- we got hurt a little bit, but we should come out of it here as the sun comes out and it heats up here, we get into March and April. I mean I see no reason we won't. And we're seeing signs in February. The things are better than what they were, which is just typical.

From a strategic initiative, our mobile service piece is something that we're really big on, and we continue. Last year was a big year for us from a mobile investment perspective. I mean, I can tell you, we took on like $4 million more depreciation in mobile units last year than we had at the end of '24. So those are investments that we make that payback comes back over the next five or six years, right? As you ramp all that up, you like to think it's all immediate, but it's not always all immediate. So we continue to ramp up that piece of our business. It's a larger piece of our business than it ever has been.

It was running around 30, now it's running like mid-30s or more of our overall business. So going forward, we continue to believe that's going to continue to be a big piece of what we do outside of our shops. I would tell you that's the most important thing. We did have -- we did go backwards a little bit in technicians in the fourth quarter. But I think we were -- that was just -- I'm not sure exactly why it wasn't -- I'm not going to say it was dramatic. So I'm not going to make any big deal at it. But we are focused on continuing to get back to adding especially a higher-level skilled technicians best we can and are doing our best to train the young ones.

You'd be amazed that the turnover usually comes in those first year, second year folks because we continue to have programs and work our way through that. But yes, we'll continue to try to grow technicians like we have in the past, while we're still doing it profitably, right? You got to be careful when you're doing that, but you got to be able to do it profitably, not just do it for the sake of doing it. We've got some great programs from a delivery perspective. We're running pilot projects.

I don't want to get into all -- I'm not going to get into all that stuff. How about that? Some of that might consider a proprietary stuff. But you can rest assured, we're not sitting on our hands. We never have and we never will.

We'll be out there running hard and running out front, hopefully because you're always getting chased. So you got to have something going on.

Yes, absolutely. Well, one final one for me, and then I'll pass it along. You mentioned quite a few times just throughout this challenging freight market the last couple of years, one of your priorities has been controlling your expenses, controlling the controllable. You did a nice job of that in 2025 and particularly in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about how we should think about expenses in 2026, given both your focus on wanting to maintain that cost discipline, but also considering we are expecting the market to improve here in 2026.

All right. Well, I mean, let me say this. If we get into -- get to really where I believe we're not there yet, if we can get into a growth where we really feel some real growth. I'm not ready to claim -- and I'm talking parts and service growth, not truck sales.

Remember, truck sales are -- everybody goes SG&A, SG&A, we run it different. S is attached to truck sales. G&A is attached to all the other expenses, right? Because that is the variable commission piece driven by what truck sales are. So you sort of got -- you got to look at it in two separate buckets, right? And that's how we do it.

And I would hope that we can maintain our G&A at least close to flat, okay? That's my plan here in Q1 would be to do that. Now as we ramp up, if the parts and service business ramps up, we always talk about the fact that we will spend half, half of the growth because we just -- half of the growth will have to be spent the gross profit growth. Now when I -- let me back up a second. Remember this about Q1. Don't comp Q1 to any other quarter.

Q1 is always jumps from Q4, okay? We have -- you've got all your payroll taxes restarting and all our equity costs go out. The majority of our -- not all, majority of our equity costs go out in Q1. So if you look at our historical record, it will always show a jump from Q4 to Q1. So don't forget that. I would compare it to last Q1 would be what I would tell you to do, not compare it to Q4 because that's always a jump that we have.

You start up a lot of different things in Q1, payroll taxes run down as the year goes on, et cetera. And really more than anything, the equity costs are all -- the majority -- not the majority, but half the equity cost in the company run in one quarter, and that would be in Q1. So again, don't compare it to Q4 compare it to last year's Q1. But we would hope to stay -- do a good job for now staying close to that number last year, but it's possible that it will ramp up some if our gross profits in parts and service are going up. We can't just -- it takes people to do what we do.

People turn [races], people move and drive and deliver parts, people do all these different things. So it's -- it's not like I'm (inaudible) money here. I'm handling hard assets and stuff like that. But I'd love to have that problem. So hopefully, we'll continue to see growth. And if we don't, then I'm planning on keeping it as flat as possible, okay?

If we stay flat in parts and service, I'm planning on keeping as close as I can with as little inflation as possible to where we were. But we're hoping to have some growth. And like I said, we're after getting out of January, seeing a little uptick here in February, but it's not enough. But like I said, I'm used to the seasonality of the business, whether I like it or not. And I just have to deal with it. And hopefully, we'll pop out in the spring like always.

Avi Jaroslawicz, UBS.

So Rusty, as of where things are standing today, and you kind of discussed it a little bit already just there. But what are your expectations for price cost in the aftermarket business? I think it was somewhat of a tailwind last year just as you raised prices of inventory to match the cost increases you were seeing, but then there's a lag for when those hit COGS. So just how should we be thinking of -- should that be a headwind here in 2026? And if so, roughly, what are we talking about?

Yes, you could have a slight headwind if inflation -- with inflation is slowing down okay? But I don't look at it just to be monumental, okay? There will still be inflation. It may not be quite as much.

Inflation can be a tailwind to you when you're doing it if you can maintain. So I would say we'll have a little bit of a headwind. But when you look at it from a percentage of the whole, it's something that if you've got a growing market, you could overcome without question. So while we'll have inflation, I don't expect the inflation from that perspective, from a parts perspective to be as much as last year from what we're seeing from the suppliers and the OEMs right now.

But it will be there. It just won't be quite as much. Hopefully, what we're talking about is the market will get better and grow. The overall market was flat. I mean, not just for us, for everybody or even down and for some people, for some whether it's independents or dealer-operated stuff, some of them were negative last year.

So I'm hoping that we get into more -- as our customer base gets healthier, their spend will be more normalized. You got to think about it like this, the way I look at it. These guys were over three years in a freight recession. And I've been around -- I hate to say how long. But I'll be -- I'm young, young at heart, but seen a lot. When it gets like that, people don't necessarily spend like they would if their business was normal when they're not their business in a recession.

You saw companies lose money that never lost money. Well, guess what? When that's going on, you're going to put off spend. You're going to add -- you know what, I'm doing -- I'm adding 5,000 miles to the oil change. You know what, I'm not fixing that fender.

You know what, I'm not doing this. So the health of the customer is the most important thing out there. And yes, we do a lot of vocational stuff, but the over-the-road market is still the biggest piece. And even the small, I mean, we've been off double digits from our small customer for the last -- each year for the last three years. So you go -- that's bad. Well, that may be bad. But right now, in the say, I look at it as a positive.

I look at it can't get much worse, right? It's only one way to go and that's up. So I hear you about a little bit of a headwind, but I think the overall market when I look at the possibilities, a healthier freight market is going to be way better than a little bit of headwind. And it's not overwhelming headwind either, by the way. But I still think there's going to be some inflation, there's no question.

But other than that, we've been able to hold our margins. As you can see, I think we ran [37%] blended parts and service in Q4, so -- which is in line, probably if you look -- I'm sitting here looking back, it's in line. We were [37.2%,] [37.6%], [35.8%] actually in the last Q1 of '25.

So my point being, 37% is solid. So -- and I would hope is we can maintain in that same range, blended parts and service margin regardless of inflation. But the health of our customer base, especially the largest customer base, the over-the-road carrier. And once the big carrier gets healthy, guess what, the little carrier follows along. And that is where more of your retail parts and service comes from, a lot not more, but a chunk of it that has been super depressed.

And so that -- to me, that's -- I'm not trying to -- it's not there yet, but I've seen these cycles before, and I don't want to get too bullish or anything. But if things go according to historical, then I think we should be in fairly good shape to capitalize on that.

That makes sense. Appreciate that. And then on the medium-duty side of the business, so saw a pretty sharp drop-off in sales there in Q4, still better than the industry, but a sharper deceleration than the industry in the quarter. So how are you thinking about the shape of the medium-duty demand here in 2026? Do you think it's going to be fairly similar to what we see in heavy-duty or --

I don't know. I have some concerns around it, to be honest with you, but I haven't seen the acceleration in it over the last 60, 90 days that I've seen in the heavy-duty side. But a lot of times, the medium-duty business is a lot of leasing and a lot of different customer base, right? And it's tied more to the general economic activity of things going on locally in a lot of ways because it's a lot more diversified type of products, not just leasing and box trucks and stuff. There's a lot of other medium-duty segments that we play into.

So I -- we're seeing more quoting activity right now. It hasn't come to fulfillment as much as the heavy ads. But a lot of times, it will be springtime as we get around here going up with the [NTEA] and some things like it's a big conference that comes up, big convention, things like that where some of these things happen. So I am sure that it will line up historical. I can't sit here and tell you that we're going to sell lots and lots more.

I would imagine we would be some maybe based on ACT calling it pretty flat, to be honest with you, we would stay in line with the percentage of the market we're at now. But I can't tell you I've booked it all already, that's for sure.

But I can also tell you, I'm not afraid. So we've got a pretty good sales force out there and well represented many brands. And we feel good will come. It just hasn't really happened yet for us, to be honest. But the quoting activity has picked up.

You got to quote before you got to quote before you can order and you got to get it ordered and get it built and get it delivered. So I'm confident that we'll execute in the lines of where we have historically here, if not grow it. I've got some stuff going on that I'd like to see happen that might allow us to even grow it, but I don't want to get out of my skis on it.

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

Just a question just going back to something you said. I think you guys were fairly skeptical, and there was a big industry debate about ACT orders last month and were they onetime in nature. It sounds like you're sort of warming up to the fact that orders could actually improve faster. Could you just unpack this for us? Just what are you seeing happening with industry orders over the next three to six months, how that's going to play out?

Sure. I may be a little repetitive here, Andrew, but I thought I tried to answer, but we believe that about 90 once we got clarity. Remember, clarity started on November 1. Let's get that right. [232] when they changed the tariff rules took effect November 1. Then we got some clarity a little later after that about, well, we're going to hold on and keep the 2027 rules in place from the emissions perspective, except for -- we're going to loosen up a few things here.

We're going to probably -- and it hasn't come out yet. But the Feds have said, we're not going to keep all the warranties. -- it hasn't been officially done, but they have communicated to customers and the like that we're going to cut the warranties back. Well, that was more than half the cost. We're going to be a little flexible on credits and how you do that.

And I'm not the technical expert. But so you had all that go down. Well, that gave clarity, right? So then you started -- customers started looking out next year. I've spoken to them. They knew they really wanted -- they pulled back on purchases last year in the second half. And you can't do that for too long. You're going to bottleneck up, your maintenance is going to go through the route and age of your fleet goes up on these big fleets.

So people really started talking, I would tell you, in November, -- and November, I don't remember what it was, 18,000, 20,000 units, I can't remember, but it was picking up, and then we had a big December, around 40,000, 30,000, 40,000, I think, and then it was 30,000 last month. At the same time, as I said earlier, people's businesses, they started being able to see your tender acceptance rates came down from 98% acceptance to low 90s, which started even in the high 80s, which started to drive your spot market up. And it wasn't just weather that did here recently. And people felt better about where they were at from -- in contracts going forward.

You can just -- there's been a little bit of tightening, right? So that gives you -- and people worried, is it sustainable, right? The first 30 days. And now I'm going out on (inaudible), maybe I'm going to be wrong. Maybe it's not sustainable.

I have a feeling that after 3.5 years, it's got to be somewhat sustainable, if not gradual, right? But sustainable, whether it's -- it's not some spike, but a gradual, sustainable improvement in their business. You tie that in with now you've got clarity, you know where it's going to be at the end of '27. You may have slowed down on some purchasing (inaudible) some companies that did in '25. Well, that's why I think you're going to see a good order intake this month.

Also, I'm just guessing it's a short month, but it will be solid. I do believe it's a short month as we know February. But I would expect it still to be solid. And from people I've talked to, some people I've talked to. So -- and I think what's going to happen is if the backlogs fill -- and I don't know for everybody because I've even heard of one OEM that had some shutdown weeks here in the first quarter. Now not anybody I'm dealing with, I don't believe. But I've heard of one OEM that has.

And I'm not here -- I don't want to get it all that. But my point being, I know for people that they're filling up, okay, not filling up, but you're getting orders, right? You got to -- so all of a sudden, the backlog is increasing, okay?

Well, then people look at it here as we get into the springtime and say, wait a minute, I don't want to get left behind in the fourth quarter because some people -- when you see these orders, remember, they're not all built immediately, but they are building a backlog. Most of them spread over time. So I just believe I could be wrong. I mean it's just my gut and maybe touch with the market that, yes, it will continue because people are feeling -- their business isn't great, but they don't feel in the dumps. Sometimes when you've been living in the swamp in the dumps, it doesn't have to get a whole lot better to make you feel better, right?

And it's been three years of prolonged freight recession, but at least now you got to believe because remember, the first thing that happened is capacity is coming out, right? Everybody reads about non-CDL or nondrivers that have been taken out here and there, and they have. And -- but that's not an add water and stir thing. But as that goes on, you have less intake of trucks. Remember, we built a whole lot less trucks in the back half of '25 than what we did in the first half. So you slow that spigot down, you start taking some of those noncompliant CDL drivers out and you start squeezing the capacity piece. And all of a sudden, the business starts getting a little better.

The economy looks a little better. The [ISM] stuff looks better. There's a lot of things that tend to make me believe along with emission regulations coming in January '27, we're going to have a pretty good last three quarters of the year, right? Now -- and I'm not predicting doom and gloom after that, but it's a little far out for me to understand right now. I'm just dealing with what I got in the president over the rest of this year, and we'll talk about '27 as we get halfway through a little further through the year this year. But I feel good that it is sustainable.

And will lead to maybe even a better year. The problem is you start off. Remember, the first quarter is going to be off. So you're starting to hold to begin with. So you climb back out and then catch back up, which you should do for sure in the back half of the year, deliver more trucks than we did last year, for sure.

Great. Rusty. And just a follow-up. I mean, it clearly seems that you're highlighting the improvement over the road finally driving your optimism for the rest of '26. You've alluded to other parts of the economy getting better.

Can you just talk about off-highway, which has been such a money maker for you over the past year, sort of got you through the drought. But maybe if we could talk about sort of these corporate fleets, if we could talk about construction, if we can talk about waste. What are you seeing in those markets because those tend to be economically sensitive as well. But as I said, it seems to us that your message is very clear on finally starting to see green shoots on over-the-road recovery.

Yes. Very well put, Andrew. Yes, we're seeing it on that side of the market. Yes, we love the diversity of our customer base. You know that.

I would tell you the vocational pieces, I don't see the pickup that I see across, but I can see fairly flat to where we have been, right? Because we've been pretty solid. I got to be honest with you. So as you said, it's helped us a whole lot over the last couple of years when this over-the-road freight recession, we've been really solid around that area. So I think that -- let's say, I don't want to get into specifics.

We might be a little softer in one segment and up a little bit in another segment. But when you look at vocational as a whole, I'm going to say we're going to be probably flat with where we have been. I don't see any huge decrease or anything. We may -- because some of them, we were still catching up from COVID in the last couple of years when you couldn't get trucks three years ago. So we have fulfilled maybe some of that pent-up demand.

So now it's more like business as usual. But I don't see any big downtick. It's more back to business as usual. Some of the people we do business with, we're playing catch-up '24 and '25 from not getting as much product in '22 and '23, to be honest with you.

So where they may be off a little, it's not off because they're off, it's off because they played a little catch-up and we were able to capitalize on that. So when I look at those businesses, they're doing well, but they've caught back up to their normal replacement cycles. They got left out a little bit. Some of those groups got left out back in '22 and '23, and then we picked them back up in '24 and '25. So just because someone may be bought 900 from me or someone they're buying 750, 800 doesn't mean their business is bad. It just means they've caught back up, right? So you got to -- but I think overall, we'll be somewhat flat in the vocational pieces.

It's been a while since you've been constructive about over the road, good to hear.

Well, it's nice to feel even though it's a big piece, but it's -- for us, vocational is big as you don't. So thank goodness, it's nice to feel that you got an opportunity to maybe -- and I hope when I talk to over the road, I'm hoping our small customer base comes back. And I've been a little bit -- I'm a little -- I'm optimistic there. I mean I don't want to get overly anything. We talk to you in April, and I'll have a whole lot better feel for what's going on, right?

The sustainability of what we're seeing -- and I'm not -- I don't want to get old. I keep trying. But like you said, it's been a while since we've been able to talk optimistically about the over-the-road business. And I just -- and looking forward, I think things are going to be better, right? So you add that with everything else we got. It's not here in Q1 because we're just taking all -- remember, people get excited because they all these orders taken in.

Orders taken in do not mean rust is delivered in. We are the tail of the dog, right? A lot of times, there's -- we got to do a lot of upfitting and things like this to trucks when we get them. So that's why when you hear me talk about, well, you took orders for me, well, that doesn't mean I'm going to add water and deliver them 30 days later. It can take three, four months to get them out there and get them delivered because of what has to be done because the -- we are the last guy that touches the end user. So even though they're manufactured, doesn't mean we don't have -- as you know, we have upfitting places around the country where we make sure to do all the things that customers need a one-stop shop is where we like to be.

(Operator Instructions) Cole Couzens, Wolfe Research.

From a Class 8 pricing perspective, can you talk to what you're seeing across the market at this point? Are OEMs raising prices yet? Or does it remain pretty competitive as OEMs look to protect or gain share? And maybe how do you see this progressing through the year with EPA '27 on the horizon?

Yes. Well, you probably didn't do real well asking that question to the OEMs, did you? So you're asking me, putting me on the spot. I would tell you right now, we're still building backlogs. I would say I have where -- let's say there's no big discounting going on compared to where we were, but there's no huge raises now because that's one of the things as we get later in the year, I wouldn't be surprised to see if supply and demand if demand exceeds supply, you've been around long enough to know what that means. I won't even try to tell you. Everybody knows what that means, okay?

And so we're not there yet. Backlogs need to be built up. They've been draining down pretty good, and people are building trucks in four weeks for you if you wanted it. So once backlogs get built up, and we'll just let the OEMs decide and we'll be the poor guy in the middle trying to get deals done. But right now, I would tell you right now, we're -- most OEMs are still in the process of getting their backlogs more healthy. So I'm not going to say it's just total cutthroat out there right now because it's not. But I mean it's not -- it's balanced at the moment.

But we continue -- you start popping some [40,000] -- if you start two or three more [35,000], [40,000] months in, which are not necessarily typical of these months coming up in March and April, February good month in March and April, you're probably going to see demand outpace supply, and I'll let you take it from there, okay?

Yes. No, that makes a ton of sense. And maybe just -- I know we've asked a lot of questions about this, but to follow up on Brady and Andrew's questions, maybe to put a finer point on it, how much of what you saw in December and January do you think was replacement CapEx versus growth CapEx versus some degree of prebuy activity? And if it was some degree of prebuy activity, can you maybe talk to the risk of potential order cancellations late in the year if things maybe aren't as good as they seem and people are -- customers are trying to get in line ahead of EPA '27 as backlogs start to build again?

I feel very good about how solid what we took was about that. I mean, I see nobody out there trying to put place orders, okay? The business we took I would -- it would take a recession or something for these folks not to take what they've ordered, okay? That's how solid I feel about it, okay? It's not people putting placeholders -- you've seen ramp-ups before where people put placeholders out there just so they can hold slots. That's not what's going on at the moment. I see none of that, to be honest with you. I see people being proactive, understanding what I just went through on the last question.

They don't want to get caught in that demand out of whack demand supply piece, right? You know what that means, right? We already know what that means. So they're trying to be proactive -- not just to the emissions, but also to knowing that Sears probably going to back up and whether you can get that second or third tier supplier. And that's what -- I hate to say it, but you know what happens when demand outpaces supply where price goes, right?

Let's get real. So I think people are catching up. They probably didn't purchase as much in the back half of last year because they didn't. And I don't -- really that's about best way I can tell you is solid, right? I go back to remember what I kept telling you earlier, their business is better. I think I've said that 3 or 4 times also, right? So it's not just the emissions. Remember, I long-winded this earlier. It's not just the emissions. Like you said, you're going to go on top of their two questions.

I'll answer it the same way. Their business is better. You've got additions coming. You feel better, like I said, you've been in the dump so long. Maybe it's not a straight V, but it's a gradual climb up. You feel good about where you're at. You're trying to plan for your future. You know you're going to be in business for a long time, and you need to do the right thing. And you just put that together, and I think that's what you're going to see. And that's what you're seeing.

And I don't believe that activity level is going to -- go away. It may not be [35,000], [40,000] every month. But we -- some people that aren't participating and going to wake up here in 60 days if we have a couple, three more months of order intake like this go low, and that's what you asked about price. That's what we're going to see how things move along them with that. So I would tell you that the folks that are on top of their game and feel well enough about what's going on are doing the right things to -- for their business plan and not waiting until the last minute to do that, knowing that there still is plenty -- there's backlog out there still to be built, which is better to wait until July would be my comment or you might get caught because ramping up production.

I mean, these OEMs are having to make decisions right now in the next 30 to 60 days, what they're going to do in the back half of the year. You got to remember, that's more labor, that's more of this. And it's the second and third-tier suppliers that have been down in the last half of last year, you asked them to ramp up, they're going to go, well, how long for, right? And that's where you run into a problem. And that's what could happen.

So if I'm planning on being in business and around a long time and I'm a smart player, then I'm not working it right now, okay? That's what I'm doing because that could be an issue. It's not an issue now, but you better be looking out. You better not be living just in the moment. You better be looking out a little ways would be my comment to anybody.

I'm not trying to play scare tactics. I'm just telling you that you run into issues with that, right? And we just -- I think if I'm not mistaken, when the engine is built is the '27 not model year truck, but engine. One, you got to remember, so when you get towards the end of this year, it's about the engine, right? The engines all have to be built by the end of '26 before you go into '27. So it could be an interesting back half. Let's just say that.

That makes -- that's good color. I appreciate it, Rusty. And maybe if I could squeeze one last question in.

Of course, you can. I hate to talk.

I heard you on the small accounts being down double digits for the past couple of years. It sounds like that hasn't really come back yet, but maybe there's some hope that it will through the year. But maybe can you talk to what you've seen from the national account level and maybe from a higher level, talk to some of the initiatives you guys are pursuing to grow national account mix going forward?

Yes. Well, you bet we are. We always were national accounts is easier and more effective and more controllable. I can't -- it's hard to control what we call the unassigned accounts. That's still 30% of our business roughly, and that's the little folks, right?

So we just want that to come back because that's going to be a higher margin, right? When you do national account business, understand they're national for a reason. They're not paying retail, okay? So while it can be a little hard on your margins, it's still more solid, sustainable repetitive business, should I say, right? So you're looking for that foundation, right? The cream and the cherry on top comes when you get the smaller retail guy back in the game.

The guy is not listening to me on the phone right now, okay? Those folks, they're still a part of what we do. So -- but I mean, our national account business was up, not as much as we had been up, but it was up some sides of the house, not so much. But on some areas, it was for last year. We will continue to focus on that.

And so -- but we were up not as much as we had. We were up buying like overall blended. All OEMs were up 6%, okay? So we will continue to grow that, understanding that you're blending revenue, you're blending margin, you're doing all that.

We love that piece. We're going to continue to focus on that piece. It's the sustainable piece, more sustainable. It doesn't have the volatility of the small customer out there, right? So -- but that's why I'm hoping.

But you got to get those guys -- the national accounts have to feel better, which they do, they'll buy all the time. They just may not buy quite as much sometime. We were up six years before, we were up double digits in it, right? Again, like I said, if you're growing the revenue, the margin is not as high as the other. We work to blended margins, but I think everybody understands that, right?

So -- and we're fine with that. We'll manage that piece. It's much more manageable than the unassigned accounts because they're not assigned. You really don't know but you don't know who they are, right? It's a small person. But hopefully, later this year, as the big guys get healthy, the little guys usually follow, but then they get growth.

Then what happens is they get too good, they get too big, and we go back in the cycle again a couple of years from now. But for right now, I would tell you, I'm hoping that some capacity still comes out, which is the small guy, but the one that's left will be a healthier customer, okay? And we will see some pickup in that later this year, too. As rates go up, it helps everybody, not just the big guy. It helps a little guy, too. And so I don't know. It's a long-winded answer there, but I hope some of that -- I gave you some points there that you can grab hold of that makes some sense to you.

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn it back over to Rusty for any closing remarks.

We appreciate everybody's participation this morning and short time before we talk again. We'll talk in February, only a couple of months away. So look forward to -- excuse me, I may not be in February. I was looking at April, my bad, two months from February to April. We'll talk in April. So thank you.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.