Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHB) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Rush Enterprises Report Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Results. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎閱讀 Rush Enterprises 2024 年第二季獲利報告。（操作員說明）

I would like now to turn the conference over to Rusty Rush, Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, and President. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給董事會主席、執行長兼總裁 Rusty Rush。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter 2024 earnings release call. With me on the call are Mike McRoberts, Chief Operating Officer; Steven Keller, Chief Financial Officer; Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報發布電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的是營運長 Mike McRoberts；史蒂文‧凱勒，財務長； Jay Hazelwood，副總裁兼財務長；麥可‧戈德斯通 (Michael Goldstone)，資深副總裁、總法律顧問兼公司秘書。

Now Steven will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

現在史蒂文將就前瞻性陳述說幾句話。

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們今天發表的某些聲明被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性聲明。由於這些陳述包含風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的重要因素包括但不限於我們在截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年度 10-K 表格年度報告中討論的因素，以及在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中。

Excuse me. As indicated in our news release, we achieved second quarter revenues of $2 billion and net income of $78.7 million or $0.97 per diluted share. We are proud to declare a cash dividend of $0.18 per common share, an increase of 5.9% over our prior quarterly dividend and our eighth increase since announcing our intent to begin playing cash quarterly cash dividend in July of 2018.

打擾一下。正如我們的新聞稿所示，我們第二季度的收入為 20 億美元，淨利潤為 7870 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.97 美元。我們很自豪地宣布每股普通股現金股息為 0.18 美元，比上一季度股息增加 5.9%，這是自 2018 年 7 月宣布打算開始發放現金季度現金股息以來的第八次增加。

Despite the ongoing challenges facing our industry that are highlighted in our earnings release, I am pleased with our financial results in the second quarter. Past strategic initiatives, including expanding our breadth of product offering, investing in our sales force and technicians and diversifying our customer base to name a few, are helping produce significantly better results than we achieved during the last industry troughs in 2020 and 2016. Although low freight rates continue to negatively impact over the road carriers, we experienced ongoing strength in other key customer segments, including public sector and vocational, which positively impacted our Class 8 truck sales revenues and market share during the second quarter. Our Class 4-7 sales remain steady, and we executed well on our used truck pricing and inventory strategies.

儘管我們的行業面臨著持續的挑戰，這些挑戰在我們的收益發布中得到了強調，但我對我們第二季度的財務表現感到滿意。過去的策略舉措，包括擴大我們的產品供應範圍、投資於我們的銷售隊伍和技術人員以及使我們的客戶群多樣化等等，正在幫助我們取得比2020 年和2016 年上一次行業低谷期間取得的更好的成果。儘管低運費繼續對公路承運商產生負面影響，但我們在其他主要客戶領域（包括公共部門和職業部門）經歷了持續的強勢，這對我們第二季度的8 級卡車銷售收入和市場份額產生了正面影響。我們的 4-7 級銷售保持穩定，並且我們在二手卡車定價和庫存策略方面執行良好。

With respect to our aftermarket products and services, we did experience a decrease in demand during the second quarter. However, we believe we kept pace with the industry from a parts sales perspective and outperform the industry with respect to service sales.

就我們的售後產品和服務而言，第二季我們的需求確實有所下降。然而，我們相信，從零件銷售的角度來看，我們與行業保持同步，並且在服務銷售方面優於行業。

In the aftermarket car parts, service and body shop revenues were $627.4 million, down 3.6% compared to the second quarter of 2023, and our absorption ratio was 134%. As I stated in the news release, the freight recession and high interest rates are still negatively impacting over-the-road carriers. These same challenging economic conditions also led to a decrease in demand from wholesale, independent parts distributors, and energy customers. Decreases to those segments were partially offset by healthy year-over-year growth in our public sector, vocational and medium-duty customers.

在售後汽車零件、服務和車身修理廠收入為 6.274 億美元，比 2023 年第二季下降 3.6%，我們的吸收率為 134%。正如我在新聞稿中所說，貨運衰退和高利率仍然對公路運輸公司產生負面影響。同樣具有挑戰性的經濟狀況也導致批發、獨立零件分銷商和能源客戶的需求減少。這些細分市場的下降被我們的公共部門、職業和中型客戶的年比健康成長部分所抵消。

Looking ahead, we do not expect market conditions or aftermarket demand to improve significantly in the third quarter. However, we are committed to leveraging the foundational tools and processes we have put in place over the last few years through the execution of our strategic initiatives, and we are confident this will lead to increased efficiency and provide better service for our customers. We believe that these actions will allow us to improve our market share and continue to outperform the industry.

展望未來，我們預期第三季市場狀況或售後市場需求不會顯著改善。然而，我們致力於利用過去幾年透過執行策略計畫而建立的基礎工具和流程，我們相信這將提高效率並為客戶提供更好的服務。我們相信，這些行動將使我們能夠提高市場份額並繼續跑贏行業。

Turning now to truck sales. We sold 4,128 new Class 8 trucks in the second quarter, accounting for 6.8% of the total US Class 8 market and 1.7% of the Canadian market. Weak demand caused by lingering freight recession led to an 18.6% decline in US Class 8 retail sales in the second quarter of '24 compared to the same quarter in 2023. However, strong retail sales to vocational customers and the timing of deliveries to certain other large customers helped to offset the decline in over-the-road sales and allowed us to increase our Class 8 market share.

現在轉向卡車銷售。第二季度，我們銷售了 4,128 輛新 8 級卡車，占美國 8 級市場總量的 6.8%，佔加拿大市場的 1.7%。持續的貨運衰退導致需求疲軟，導致 24 年第二季美國 8 類零售額與 2023 年同季相比下降 18.6%。然而，對職業客戶的強勁零售銷售以及對某些其他大客戶的交貨時間有助於抵消公路銷售的下降，並使我們能夠增加 8 類市場份額。

ACT Research forecasts US Class 8 retail sales to be 228,700 units in 2024, down 15.8% compared to 2023. During the second quarter, the industry experienced higher-than-normal Class 8 order cancellations and weak order intake, which we believe will cause new Class 8 truck sales to be down for the remainder of the year.

ACT Research 預測，2024 年美國 8 類汽車零售量將為 228,700 輛，比 2023 年下降 15.8%。第二季度，該行業經歷了高於正常水平的 8 級訂單取消和訂單量疲軟，我們認為這將導致今年剩餘時間新 8 級卡車銷量下降。

We also expect truck pricing to be more competitive in the second half of the year. However, we expect vocational sales to remain strong, and we believe we are well prepared to perform in a more competitive pricing environment.

我們也預計下半年卡車定價將更具競爭力。然而，我們預計職業銷售將保持強勁，我們相信我們已做好充分準備，可以在更具競爭力的定價環境中表現出色。

Our Class 4-7 sales reached 3,691 units in the second quarter or 5.7% of the US market and 2.4% of the Canadian market. Commercial vehicle production continued to increase, and delivery times have improved, resulting in healthy activity from medium-duty customers. Our Class 4-7 commercial vehicle sales were broad-based across industry segments, and we are pleased to outpace the market in the second quarter.

第二季度，我們的 4-7 級汽車銷量達到 3,691 輛，占美國市場的 5.7% 和加拿大市場的 2.4%。商用車產量持續增加，交貨時間改善，導致中型客戶的活躍度良好。我們的 4-7 級商用車銷售基礎廣泛，涵蓋各個行業領域，我們很高興在第二季度超越市場。

ACT Research forecasts US Class 4-7 retail sales to be 262,000 units in 2024, up 3.7% from 2023. We will closely monitor economic factors that could impact customer spending and lead to a decrease in Class 4-7 commercial vehicle demand. However, at this time, we anticipate our third quarter Class 4-7 commercial vehicle sales will be consistent with our second quarter results.

ACT Research 預測 2024 年美國 4-7 類汽車零售量將達到 262,000 輛，比 2023 年增長 3.7%。我們將密切關注可能影響客戶支出並導致 4-7 級商用車需求下降的經濟因素。然而，目前，我們預計第三季 4-7 級商用車銷售將與第二季業績保持一致。

We sold 1,723 used trucks in the second quarter, down 7.8% year-over-year. Used truck demand remained weak due to low freight rates, more readily available new truck alternatives, and higher interest rates. However, the rate of used truck depreciation has slowed to more manageable levels, and we executed well on our used truck strategies. We are keeping inventories low and are well positioned for the second half of the year. We expect our third quarter performance to be on par with our second quarter results.

第二季我們銷售二手卡車1,723輛，較去年同期下降7.8%。由於運費低、新卡車替代品更容易取得以及利率上升，二手卡車需求仍然疲軟。然而，二手卡車折舊率已放緩至更易於管理的水平，而且我們的二手卡車策略執行得很好。我們保持低庫存，並為下半年做好準備。我們預計第三季的業績將與第二季的業績持平。

Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor industry and macroeconomic conditions, looking for signs of significant freight recovery. As I previously stated, we expect retail sales of new Class 8 trucks to decrease from second quarter levels throughout the remainder of the year, and for retail sales to remain solid for new Class 4-7 trucks. Despite the difficult market conditions, we believe we are well positioned to continue to outperform the industry and to increase our market share.

展望未來，我們將持續監測產業和宏觀經濟狀況，尋找貨運大幅復甦的跡象。正如我之前所說，我們預計今年剩餘時間內新型 8 級卡車的零售額將比第二季度的水平有所下降，而新型 4-7 級卡車的零售額將保持穩定。儘管市場條件困難，我們相信我們有能力繼續跑贏行業並增加我們的市場份額。

It is also worth noting that we instituted expense reductions during the second quarter in anticipation of the soft new market. These actions, combined with the diversity of our customer base and our strategic focus, will help us successfully manage this challenging market cycle. Our employees have worked particularly hard throughout this challenging quarter to achieve these positive results, so I want to acknowledge their efforts and thank them for their dedication to providing best-in-class service to our customers while staying focused on efficiency and successful execution of our strategic initiatives.

另外值得注意的是，由於預期新市場疲軟，我們在第二季削減了費用。這些行動，加上我們客戶群的多樣性和我們的策略重點，將有助於我們成功管理這個充滿挑戰的市場週期。我們的員工在這個充滿挑戰的季度中特別努力工作，以取得這些積極的成果，因此我要感謝他們的努力，並感謝他們致力於為我們的客戶提供一流的服務，同時專注於我們的效率和成功執行戰略舉措。

With that, I'll take your questions.

接下來，我將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

（操作員說明）Daniel Imbro，Stephens。

Rusty, I'll start maybe on the demand backdrop. Obviously, fleets are slowing spending and the freight backdrop has remained tough. Just curious how the back half pipeline looks as we head on Class 8 side into the second half. And maybe how has that tone changed as you talk to carriers? I feel like the last few months, some are sounding a little more positive than we're seeing some normalization happening in the freight market. So curious if you're hearing that or how do you think that would affect the back half.

Rusty，我可能會從需求背景開始。顯然，船隊支出正在放緩，貨運狀況依然嚴峻。只是好奇當我們從 8 級一側進入後半部分時，後半部分管道是什麼樣子的。也許當您與運營商交談時，這種語氣發生了怎樣的變化？我覺得過去幾個月，有些聽起來比我們看到貨運市場正在發生的一些正常化更為正面。很好奇您是否聽到了這個消息，或者您認為這會如何影響後半部分。

You bet. No, I mean when you think about truck sales, most of the truck -- like truck sales for the third quarter, other than stock truck sales, we pretty much know what we've got coming already, right, because there is some lead time still to it. From that perspective, yes, I look at it -- oh, if I may say so, I would say similar from a Class 8 perspective now, similar to Q1, more like, and not as many units as we sold in Q4.

你打賭。不，我的意思是，當你考慮卡車銷售時，大多數卡車——比如第三季度的卡車銷售，除了庫存卡車銷售之外，我們幾乎知道我們已經收到了什麼，對吧，因為有一些領先優勢時間還到了。從這個角度來看，是的，我會看它- 哦，如果我可以這麼說，我會說現在從8 級的角度來看類似，與Q1 類似，更像是，但沒有我們在Q4 銷售的那麼多。

And the fourth quarter still to be told. I can still get you all the trucks you need in the fourth quarter if you need so, right? So obviously, we have business booked in the fourth quarter, but it's still coming together, right? That quarter is still coming together, given the reduction in lead times with basically all Class 8 OEMs.

第四季仍有待告知。如果你需要的話，我仍然可以在第四季度為你提供你需要的所有卡車，對嗎？顯然，我們在第四季度已經預訂了業務，但仍然在進行中，對嗎？鑑於基本上所有 8 類 OEM 廠商的交貨時間都縮短了，該季度仍處於整合階段。

From a customer perspective, yes, for me, yes, things have leveled off. Are they getting a lot better? No. Are they bobbling where I think they're pretty level talking to customers like I do? Yes, I think they're bouncing along. But there's slight green shoots you'll see here and here, but it takes trend lines. It doesn't take a little here, a little spot here, and then you skip a little bit here. You really need a consistent trend line of positive news.

從客戶的角度來看，是的，對我來說，是的，事情已經趨於平穩。他們變得更好了嗎？不。他們是否像我一樣在與客戶交談時表現得相當水平？是的，我認為他們正在跳躍。但你會在這裡和這裡看到輕微的萌芽，但這需要趨勢線。這裡不需要一點點，這裡一點點，然後你就可以跳過這裡一點點。你確實需要一條一致的正向消息趨勢線。

Do I believe that's coming? You bet. Do I believe it's going to be difficult to get to that situation -- get to a real positive environment, oh, in the back half of this year with the election and everything else going on? Probably going to be tough. But the foundation is set for a rebound for sure for next year. Exactly pegging when it will be, I'm not that guy to peg exactly. But I do believe there's not this continual pessimism of continuing to drop, drop, drop, right? But I do believe there will be -- we'll inch our way forward here in the back half of the year.

我相信那會到來嗎？你打賭。我是否認為今年下半年隨著選舉和其他事情的進展，要達到這種情況會很困難——達到一個真正積極的環境？可能會很艱難。但明年的反彈肯定已經奠定了基礎。準確地釘住它的時間，我不是那個準確地釘住的人。但我確實相信，不會出現持續下降、下降、下降的持續悲觀情緒，對嗎？但我確實相信，我們將在今年下半年緩慢前進。

But setting the stage, I think, as we continue to get -- there's still capacity. There's still a little bit too much capacity out there in the marketplace. It's a balancing act between supply and demand, where we have had some come out. We've also -- it's not like freight tonnage is growing a lot either, okay?

但我認為，隨著我們繼續取得進展，我們仍然有能力。市場上的容量仍然有點過多。這是供需之間的平衡行為，我們已經取得了一些成果。我們還——貨運噸位也沒有增加很多，好嗎？

So we're getting our way. We're finally -- I think you can see the light, right? But it's not a full picture yet to where -- that our customer base will be able to take advantage of it and try to hit back some of that -- those freight rates that they've been -- had to be such a highly competitive -- just to do what they had to do in the last few years. And the reduction in freight rates should be about over with. I think if you see most everybody, it's low singles that they've given anything back here recently, and I expect that to flat. And I expect that to maintain, but then they should be able to start picking up. And I'm talking about the truckload side, and I'll get in the LTL side here, obviously. But on the truckload side, for sure, that's really what I see for all for hire.

所以我們正在按自己的方式行事。我們終於——我想你能看到曙光了，對吧？但這還不是一個全面的圖景——我們的客戶群將能夠利用它並嘗試回擊其中的一些——那些他們一直以來的運費——必須具有如此高度的競爭力——只是為了做過去幾年他們必須要做的事情。運費的下調應該即將結束。我想，如果你看到大多數人，他們最近在這裡付出的一切都是很低的單身人士，我預計這個數字會持平。我預計這種情況會持續下去，但隨後他們應該能夠開始回升。我說的是卡車裝載方面，顯然我會在這裡討論零擔方面。但在卡車裝載方面，可以肯定的是，這確實是我所看到的所有出租的情況。

Really helpful color. And then if I could follow up on the parts and service side. You mentioned revenue stepped down sequentially. I guess can you talk about what changed since the first quarter? The macro has been tough, but I felt like demand for parts and service maybe slowed more than we thought. And then given the stable macro, I guess how do you think that year-over-year growth shapes up, or sequential growth shapes up into the back half?

真的很有幫助的顏色。然後我是否可以跟進零件和服務方面。您提到收入連續下降。我想你能談談自第一季以來發生了什麼變化嗎？宏觀情況很艱難，但我覺得對零件和服務的需求可能比我們想像的放緩更多。然後考慮到穩定的宏觀經濟，我想您認為下半年的同比增長或環比增長會如何？

Yes. Obviously, I don't see any big pickup. Taking a reverse -- or let me take it the way you asked it. Look, we've been flattening off. I've talked about it for a while. We've had double-digit declines from what I call our unassigned accounts, continually, okay? And that's the small accounts. And that's still 30% of our business, okay? Small customers out there are still struggling.

是的。顯然，我沒有看到任何大的提升。反過來說——或者讓我按照你的要求來理解。瞧，我們已經趨於平淡了。我已經談論它有一段時間了。我們的未分配帳戶持續出現兩位數的下降，好嗎？這就是小帳戶。這仍然是我們業務的 30%，好嗎？那裡的小客戶仍在苦苦掙扎。

What you've seen is the large customers. Read all the public trucks, they've been in there for two years, and we fought back and fought back and had growth inside of that. Well, it finally came in where we had -- we went backwards a little bit.

你看到的是大客戶。看看所有的公共卡車，它們已經在那裡待了兩年了，我們奮力反擊，並在其中取得了成長。好吧，它終於來到了我們原來的地方——我們稍微倒退了一點。

But the most important thing to understand is the diversity of our customer base. If we were tied strictly to the over-the-road business, you would see double-digit -- somewhere between 10% and 20% declines in our parts and service business. But you don't because we go about it in a very strategic way because of the brands we represent and how we go to market. We make sure that we're doing it in a way that we're hitting every market. That's the diversification of our customer base. It's one of the most key things that we have. And so that allows you, when one segment is way down, to still maintain and go along.

但最重要的是要了解我們客戶群的多樣性。如果我們嚴格依賴公路業務，您會看到我們的零件和服務業務出現兩位數的下降，即 10% 到 20% 之間的下降。但你不會，因為我們以非常策略性的方式進行，因為我們代表的品牌以及我們進入市場的方式。我們確保我們的做法能夠打入每個市場。這就是我們客戶群的多元化。這是我們擁有的最關鍵的東西之一。這樣，當某一部分大幅下滑時，您仍然可以維持並繼續前進。

And then I look to the fact that we could see this coming, and we mentioned it in April that we were going to make some adjustments. That's the good thing about the business is we understand that the absorption rates that we run now compared to where we used to, we can make adjustments. Was absorption rate down slightly? Yeah. But we made some pretty good adjustments inside our expense base to help offset some of that reduction and run a pretty high -- if you told me a few years ago we'd be running 134% and complaining, I'd have told you you were crazy. But those are the kind of things we're able to do.

然後我看到這樣一個事實，我們可以預見到這一點，我們在四月提到我們將做出一些調整。這項業務的好處是，我們知道，與過去相比，我們現在的吸收率可以進行調整。吸收率是否略有下降？是的。但我們在費用基礎上做了一些相當好的調整，以幫助抵消部分減少，並運行相當高的水平——如果你幾年前告訴我，我們的運行率為134% 並抱怨，我會告訴你的都瘋了。但這些是我們能夠做的事情。

Now as I look forward, I don't see any big catalyst to really push that revenue line up. I do think we can maintain where we are currently. And hopefully, we still have some expense things, a few expense things that are going to come in that will help to offset the lack of growth. But we really -- you got to remember, even though we're very diversified, that still the largest base we do business with is the over-the-road business, whether it be the large public carriers, or large carriers private, or whether it be a small customer. It is still the majority of trucks on the road out there. Just thank God that we have the diversity of the customer base we do to maintain where we're at and provide the results that we did in this quarter.

現在，展望未來，我沒有看到任何重大催化劑能夠真正推動營收成長。我確實認為我們可以維持目前的狀況。希望我們仍然有一些費用，一些將有助於抵消成長不足的費用。但我們真的——你必須記住，儘管我們非常多元化，但我們與之開展業務的最大基礎仍然是公路業務，無論是大型公共運營商，還是大型私營運營商，或者無論是小客戶。道路上的卡車仍然佔大多數。感謝上帝，我們擁有多元化的客戶群，我們可以保持現狀並提供我們在本季度取得的成果。

I mean if you look at our results compared to some of our -- not all of our customers, but a lot of our over-the-road customers that have suffered, which is the biggest sector, again, that we have. We do all these other things, vocational and wholesale and municipal and all these other market segments. But at the same time, that's still the largest, so when it gets hit like it has, to be able to pull through and produce the numbers, I can tell you, I've never been more proud of the organization than I am right now.

我的意思是，如果你將我們的結果與我們的一些客戶進行比較——不是我們所有的客戶，而是我們許多遭受損失的長途客戶，這又是我們擁有的最大的部門。我們做所有這些其他事情，職業、批發、市政以及所有其他細分市場。但同時，這仍然是最大的，所以當它受到像現在這樣的打擊時，能夠渡過難關並產生數字，我可以告訴你，我從來沒有像現在這樣對這個組織感到更加自豪。

And I expect to -- with truck sales going backwards. It gives us -- we have these different revenue streams, right? We have different gross profit areas, whether it's the parts or service, truck sales, heavy-duty, medium-duty, used trucks. And again, that balance of earnings streams is what's providing the results.

我預期卡車銷量會出現倒退。它給了我們——我們有這些不同的收入來源，對吧？我們有不同的毛利領域，無論是配件或服務，卡車銷售，重型、中型、二手卡車。再說一遍，收入流的平衡才是帶來成果的原因。

As I said on comments a minute ago, go back and look at the last trough in '20 and that trough in '16. This organization is not even close. Doesn't even look like the same organization that it was back in -- the results show that. So I expect we'll just bobble along where we are on that revenue and back in line and continue to work on our expense base and continue to provide the outstanding results we have, but we will be backwards in truck sales. Like I said, we'll go back more to Q1-type levels.

正如我一分鐘前在評論中所說，回過頭來看看 20 年的最後一個低谷和 16 年的那個低谷。這個組織甚至還不是很接近。甚至看起來不像原來的組織——結果表明了這一點。因此，我預計我們將在收入方面搖擺不定，然後回到原來的位置，繼續致力於我們的支出基礎並繼續提供我們所擁有的出色業績，但我們在卡車銷售方面將落後。就像我說的，我們將更多地回到第一季的水平。

And let's just let it unfold in front of us, but I'm very confident in the organization to do what it's been doing. And just look at the last few years' results. I mean, we're thriving in a trough year. We're tracking to well, well-- I'm not going to get into it, third best or whatever year we've ever had as an organization. And that's pretty outstanding.

讓我們讓它在我們面前展開吧，但我對組織做它一直在做的事情非常有信心。看看過去幾年的結果就知道了。我的意思是，我們在低谷的一年中蓬勃發展。我們正在追蹤好，好——我不打算談論它，第三好或我們作為一個組織曾經有過的任何一年。這非常出色。

No, I appreciate all that color. And I'm going to have a quick follow-up. You mentioned obviously, you guys has been raised and cash flow has been a source of a positive guide throughout the story. I guess how are you thinking about uses of cash, not only here at the trough, but as the cycle turns, I would think cash flow gets even better. I guess what are you seeing as the most attractive uses of that capital as we think about the cash flow generation through the cycle?

不，我很欣賞這種顏色。我將進行快速跟進。你顯然提到，你們已經籌集了資金，現金流一直是整個故事的積極引導的來源。我想你如何看待現金的使用，不僅是在低谷，而且隨著週期的轉變，我認為現金流會變得更好。我想當我們考慮整個週期的現金流量產生時，您認為該資本最有吸引力的用途是什麼？

Sure. Well, we tried to take a balanced approach the last few years to what we do with free cash flow. We said that we'll give somewhere about 40% back in shareholder return, and that would be a combination, obviously, of dividend and share repurchase.

當然。嗯，過去幾年我們試圖對自由現金流採取平衡的方法。我們說過，我們將給予股東約 40% 的回報，顯然，這將是股利和股票回購的結合。

At the same time, our number 1 thing is still growth, right? So M&A will always be a part of that, too, which could influence some of that as we go forward. So M&A would be the biggest thing I would tell you that we would be focused on, right? Do I have a lot of it out there right now? Not necessarily. Are we looking at things? Of course, we are.

同時，我們的第一件事仍然是成長，對嗎？因此，併購也將永遠是其中的一部分，這可能會在我們前進的過程中產生一些影響。所以我想告訴你的是，併購將是我們重點關注的最重要的事情，對吧？我現在有很多嗎？未必。我們在看事物嗎？當然，我們是。

At the same time, I can't sit here -- by the way, I wouldn't sit here and tell you we're going to do something. I would announce it to you when it's done. But growth inside the organization, when it comes to that piece, is there.

同時，我不能坐在這裡——順便說一句，我不會坐在這裡告訴你我們要做什麼。完成後我會向您宣布。但就這一塊而言，組織內部的成長是存在的。

We had a little acquisition in Nebraska this quarter, and there's some others that we're looking at, not a big one, but just singles, man. Sometimes folks don't understand just because I'm not doing big M&A, like I say, the last big M&A deal was December of '21 when we bought the second largest Navistar dealer. We're always doing what I call bump singles. We're opening up 3, 4, 5 stores a year that you don't see. They're a little small. And we're buying little deals. And sometimes, we don't even talk about it, okay? But right now, M&A would always be, first and foremost, to continue to expand our footprint.

本季我們在內布拉斯加州進行了一些收購，我們正在考慮其他一些收購，不是大型收購，而是單身收購，夥計。有時人們不理解只是因為我沒有進行大型併購，就像我說的，最後一次大型併購交易是 21 年 12 月，當時我們收購了第二大 Navistar 經銷商。我們總是做我所說的「碰撞單打」。我們每年會開設 3、4、5 家你看不到的店。它們有點小。我們正在購買小額交易。有時，我們甚至不談論它，好嗎？但現在，併購首先是為了繼續擴大我們的足跡。

Remember, the best thing we have going for us is our footprint, outside of our people now. But the number 1 thing is our footprint. It's the differentiation that we can touch more customers, especially as customers continue to consolidate. It's not as fractional as a customer base as it used to be. And we can drive efficiencies, not just into our organization, but most importantly into their organization, leveraging off that footprint with our outstanding people, so we can go out and we'll do what. We're out there. We're always out there looking for new customers, right? You've always got target customers and that you're going at. And that's, to me, one of our -- is our biggest selling point outside our people, as I said, is our network, and we'll continue to look to expand that. That's always going to be number 1.

請記住，對我們來說最好的事情就是我們的足跡，現在在我們的員工之外。但第一件事是我們的足跡。正是這種差異化讓我們能夠接觸到更多的客戶，尤其是在客戶不斷整合的情況下。它的客戶群不再像以前那樣零散。我們可以提高效率，不僅是我們的組織，最重要的是他們的組織，利用我們優秀人才的足跡，這樣我們就可以走出去，我們會做些什麼。我們就在外面。我們一直在尋找新客戶，對嗎？你總是有目標客戶並且是你要瞄準的。對我來說，正如我所說，我們的人脈是我們員工之外的最大賣點之一，我們將繼續尋求擴大這個網絡。這永遠是第一名。

And then it will just be returning to shareholders that -- if you look at the average, we've averaged around 40% the last five years. Some years, it was 25%, some years, it was 50%. But that's about -- it depends on that year, when you're -- sometimes, limited as to what you can do anyway from a repurchase perspective. And when you hit it from that perspective, we've consistently raised our dividend every year, sometimes more than 5% or 10%. Our commitment is 5% to 10%. And last year, it was 21%, okay? It just happened to be that high.

然後，它將回報給股東——如果你看平均值，你會發現過去五年我們的平均回報率約為 40%。有些年份是25%，有些年份是50%。但這取決於那一年，有時，從回購的角度來看，你能做的事情是有限的。從這個角度來看，我們每年都會持續提高股息，有時超過 5% 或 10%。我們的承諾是5%到10%。去年是21%，好嗎？它只是碰巧那麼高。

But we'll continue to -- those will be the three main things that we'll do, right? It's shareholder, two, maybe -- shareholder return is 1 and not 2. It will be shareholder return. And then, of course, number 1 will be acquisitions if we can find them to continue to build our footprint out.

但我們將繼續下去——這將是我們要做的三件主要事情，對吧？可能是兩個股東——股東回報是 1，而不是 2。這將是股東回報。當然，如果我們能找到收購來繼續擴大我們的足跡，那麼第一要務就是收購。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Just maybe, you talked about outperformance and obviously, it's because you have higher vocational mix versus the industry. Can you just remind us where we are in your mix at this point?

也許，您談到了出色的表現，顯然，這是因為您與行業相比擁有更高的職業組合。您能提醒我們目前在您的組合中處於什麼位置嗎？

So what was that question again, Andrew? I'm sorry.

那麼這個問題又是什麼，安德魯？對不起。

Your mix, your Class 8 mix versus the industry, right, because you have more vocational, right, you have more ways the road, but less of it. Could you just remind us what the mix is like these days?

你的組合，你的8級組合與行業的組合，對吧，因為你有更多的職業，對吧，你有更多的道路，但更少。你能提醒我們現在的組合是什麼樣的嗎？

I'm going to give you -- Andrew, I don't -- it's not a stat that I'm going to give you, it's what I keep total reg of, but I always say and I usually say, somewhere around 50-50. Depending on the brand, we're a little -- maybe a little bit heavier on the vocational side, on the Peterbilt side, than we are on the Navistar side. But somewhere 45%, 50% of our -- 40% -- let's say 45% of our business is vocation, somewhere in that range.

我要給你 - 安德魯，我不 - 這不是我要給你的統計數據，這是我保留的總記錄，但我總是說，我通常說，大約 50 -50。根據品牌的不同，我們在職業方面，彼得比爾特方面，可能比 Navistar 方面更重一些。但我們的 45%、50%——40%——比如說 45% 的業務是職業，就在這個範圍內。

When you really look into the construction, the refuse, and all those businesses, and that's on the 8 side, right? And that's one of the key pieces. Again, it's diversification, diversification to each market segment. And that's really -- and I appreciate the color -- the question, but the color would be somewhere in that range.

當你真正了解建築、垃圾和所有這些業務時，你會發現那是在 8 號邊，對嗎？這是關鍵部分之一。再次，它是多元化，每個細分市場的多元化。這確實是——我很欣賞這個顏色——的問題，但顏色應該在這個範圍內。

Right. And then what folks are wondering, just in terms of orders, what do you think? And I think you've clearly been early sort of sounding caution about outlook for the second half. Where are the orders trending in July, August? What are you seeing? What's your experience?

正確的。那麼人們想知道的是，就訂單而言，您有何看法？我認為您顯然對下半年的前景持謹慎態度。7月、8月訂單趨勢在哪裡？你看到什麼了？你的經驗是什麼？

Andrew, compared to where we were in the first quarter, really, it started -- it's been all year. It's been pretty down for us all year from an order intake perspective. Now I will say that we -- there's a few -- we had a few -- a couple of deals along the way. But from just a demand perspective, quoting, no question it's been down. Our customers -- you're starting to get talk about emissions, right?

安德魯，與我們第一季的情況相比，真的，它開始了——已經持續了一整年了。從訂單量的角度來看，我們全年的訂單量都在下降。現在我要說的是，我們——有一些——我們有一些——一路上達成了一些交易。但僅從需求角度來看，毫無疑問它已經下降了。我們的客戶—你們開始談論排放問題了，對吧？

We're out right now talking with folks. But it's been very difficult for a lot of the truckload guys to start talking about that when you can see their earnings and the pressures that they felt inside their business. So I would tell you orders are still going to be down in July, I would guess when they come out tomorrow. I would -- last month, I think I was on the call, I guess pretty good view of a bunch of investors, around 15,000.

我們現在出去與人們交談。但對於許多卡車司機來說，當你看到他們的收入和他們在業務中感受到的壓力時，很難開始談論這一點。所以我想告訴你，七月的訂單仍然會下降，我猜明天什麼時候會出來。我想——上個月，我參加了電話會議，我想一群投資者的看法相當不錯，大約有 15,000 人。

And I don't know where they'll be this month. I have -- I'm really not sure, but I'm not going to say they're not going to be super outstanding because folks are -- as I said, there's still build available in the back part of the year, but it's -- people are still trying to come get -- the supply demand, we still need more supply. From a truckload perspective, it's still the biggest market out there. We still need more supply to come out, more trucks to come out of the market, and capacity, from a capacity perspective from where we're at.

我不知道他們這個月會在哪裡。我真的不確定，但我不會說他們不會非常出色，因為人們 - 正如我所說，今年下半年仍然有可用的構建，但是人們仍在試圖獲得供應需求，我們仍然需要更多供應。從卡車裝載量的角度來看，它仍然是最大的市場。從我們目前所處的產能角度來看，我們仍然需要更多的供應、更多的卡車離開市場以及產能。

And people have been too buried, I think, inside of running and managing their own business to worry about '27 emissions. A lot of folks still believe that, well, this election is going to change something. It's not going to change anything dramatically. I don't care, this -- the OEMs have spent millions, but they're too busy taking care of their businesses to worry about the cost increases that are going to come with meeting '27 emissions, which is going to happen. We can all think an election will change all that, but I don't believe that to be the case because of the multi millions and billions committed to technology already as these things have been worked on for a while.

我認為，人們一直埋頭於經營和管理自己的企業，無暇擔心 27 世紀的排放問題。許多人仍然相信，這次選舉將會改變一些事情。它不會顯著改變任何事情。我不在乎，這一點——原始設備製造商已經花費了數百萬美元，但他們太忙於照顧自己的業務，無暇擔心為滿足即將發生的「27」排放而帶來的成本增加。我們都可以認為選舉會改變這一切，但我不相信情況會如此，因為已經有數百萬和數十億美元致力於技術，因為這些事情已經進行了一段時間了。

But I do expect that we will get -- maybe -- usually, orders start picking up in October, November, December, which translates into picking up business picking up next year. So I can't tell you exactly when I expect that to happen. But usually, you've got ATA in October, and then you -- people follow through on that.

但我確實預計我們會——也許——通常情況下，訂單會在十月、十一月、十二月開始增加，這意味著明年的業務將會增加。所以我無法準確告訴你我預計這種情況何時會發生。但通常情況下，你會在 10 月獲得 ATA，然後人們就會跟進。

So I'm looking -- as long as everybody can -- if businesses really are flattening like what I said and what I've at people I've talked to, that we're on the bottom and they can see slight slivers of green out there in their business going forward that they weathered the toughest part, then people will start getting concerned about the technology of diesel trucks and all the after treatment and everything. People still remember what it was like in 2010 when we went into ECR -- or excuse me, CSR. One company stayed on EGR, but we went to SCR and the aftertreatment that happened.

因此，我正在尋找——只要每個人都可以——如果企業真的像我所說的話以及我與我交談過的人所說的那樣，我們正處於底部，他們可以看到輕微的衰退在他們在的業務發展中，他們經歷了最艱難的部分，然後人們就會開始關心柴油卡車的技術以及所有的後處理和一切。人們仍然記得 2010 年我們進入 ECR（或對不起，CSR）的情況。一家公司保留了 EGR，但我們轉向了 SCR 和發生的後處理。

And then also combine that with what we look for cost increases to be, you're going to see some. I just don't think you're really going to see it until late this year, which translates into sometime next year. Probably spread deliveries on your big orders throughout the year, starting next year sometime. But I don't look for any uptick in the next couple of months. I can tell you that. Big uptick now in the next --

然後將其與我們期望的成本增加相結合，您會看到一些。我只是認為你要到今年年底才能真正看到它，也就是明年的某個時候。從明年的某個時候開始，您的大訂單可能會在全年中分批交貨。但我不認為未來幾個月會有任何上升。我可以告訴你。現在接下來會大幅上漲--

But we are out talking, and when people are starting to talk more about it, some people thought they were going talk you into each some OEMs I read earlier, and said, oh, it's going to happen. It's happening, but in a very gradual, early stage, let's say, like that. But there will be -- they will understand their businesses. Customers are smart, and they'll know when it's time to kick it in gear. But I don't look forward until the back half of the year -- or excuse, back couple of months of the year.

但我們正在外面談論，當人們開始更多地談論它時，有些人認為他們會說服你進入我之前讀到的一些原始設備製造商，並說，哦，這將會發生。它正在發生，但處於一個非常漸進的早期階段，可以這麼說。但他們會了解自己的業務。客戶很聰明，他們會知道何時該啟動。但我不會展望下半年——或者原諒我，展望今年的幾個月。

But for the next couple of months, do you think there's 15,000 sort of relatively flat or down from that number. Is that a fair estimate?

但在接下來的幾個月裡，您認為 15,000 人的數量是相對持平還是下降？這是一個公平的估計嗎？

From my perspective, unless a big -- some big customers, a couple or three or four big customers want to place big orders that are spread, that -- the demand is not -- the demand is just going to be limit -- I mean, yes. Got around to answer your question without just overtalking like I do a lot. Yes, I don't expect any big uptick in orders.

從我的角度來看，除非一個大的——一些大客戶，幾個或三四個大客戶想要下大訂單，而且需求不會——需求只會受到限制——我意思是，是的。抽出時間來回答你的問題，而不是像我經常做的那樣滔滔不絕。是的，我預計訂單不會大幅增加。

How did that EGR decision work out for that CEO? Oh, I shouldn't say that.

這位執行長的 EGR 決策效果如何？哦，我不該這麼說。

(laughter)

（笑聲）

So sorry. I didn't say that. I didn't say that. I didn't say that.

很抱歉。我沒那麼說。我沒那麼說。我沒那麼說。

I know you didn't. You can say that offline too.

我知道你沒有。線下也可以這麼說。

I don't think I was allowed into that building for a while.

我想我有一段時間不被允許進入那棟大樓了。

(laughter)

（笑聲）

Just a question on macro. I always ask you because you have very good systems. Lots of uncertainty about the economy. I think the PMIs just came out, indicates sort of a step-down in industrial activity. What are you seeing? You have coast-to-coast presence. What are you seeing about the economy? Are you more optimistic about the economy today versus a month ago? Or are you more pessimistic? Would love to get your take because you tend to be very smart about it.

只是宏觀問題。我總是問你，因為你有非常好的系統。經濟存在很多不確定性。我認為採購經理人指數剛剛公佈，顯示工業活動放緩。你看到什麼了？您的業務遍布全國各地。您對經濟有何看法？與一個月前相比，您對今天的經濟更加樂觀嗎？還是你比較悲觀？我很想聽聽你的看法，因為你在這方面往往非常聰明。

Oh, Andrew, won't you pile it on to me today, aren't you, boy? Good question. I just see a lot of uncertainty, to be honest with you. I mean, I see more uncertainty in my mind about the economy. And I know it sounds like a broad, no-answer, but truly, I do believe that. I just think this election and all the stuff that's going on outside of everything else has got people a little bit paralyzed in some areas.

哦，安德魯，你今天不會把它堆在我身上，不是嗎，孩子？好問題。老實說，我只是看到了很多不確定性。我的意思是，我對經濟的看法有更多的不確定性。我知道這聽起來像是一個廣泛的、沒有答案的問題，但我確實相信這一點。我只是認為這次選舉以及其他事情之外發生的所有事情都讓人們在某些領域有點癱瘓。

As I look around, obviously, the truckload side is still not in good shape. The LTL side has been in good shape. We were off a little bit in energy this last -- from a parts and service perspective this last quarter, more than I would have anticipated.

當我環顧四周時，顯然，卡車裝載側的狀況仍然不佳。零擔方面一直狀況良好。從上個季度的零件和服務角度來看，我們去年的能源消耗有點少，超出了我的預期。

I think the economy just looked a little hot earlier. I think it was going to be a tougher back half. But I do expect it to pick up after that. I do expect, no matter what anybody else says, I do expect it to -- my problem is sometimes, I get -- I'll look at it through my industrial glasses, right? I got to take my -- you want to take my macro glasses on, and sometimes maybe I'm not the best at that. I can make a stab at it, but I don't look for any -- I don't --

我認為經濟早些時候看起來有點熱。我認為這將是一個更強硬的後半場。但我確實希望在那之後它會有所回升。我確實期望，無論其他人怎麼說，我確實期望它 - 我的問題是有時，我明白 - 我會透過我的工業眼鏡來看待它，對吧？我必須戴上我的——你想戴上我的微距眼鏡，有時也許我不是最擅長的。我可以嘗試一下，但我不會尋找任何東西——我不會--

I'm not looking for a recession, if that's what you're saying, right now. But I'm just looking for sort of bobbling along right now until we get through November and into '25. And then I'm going to feel -- especially from an industry perspective, we'll feel pretty good about it because we will have (technical difficulty), and we will have taken out capacity out of the marketplace, and that's always a good thing, to be a platform set up for good for my industry. But I just look at this back half, it's going to be a little slow, if you ask me. And I'm not going to -- I'm not an economist, so I'm not going to get out past that much. (multiple speakers)

如果你現在這麼說的話，我並不是期待經濟衰退。但我現在只是在尋找一種搖擺不定的方式，直到我們度過 11 月並進入 25 年。然後我會覺得——特別是從行業的角度來看，我們對此感覺非常好，因為我們將面臨（技術困難），並且我們將從市場中取出產能，這總是一個好的結果事情，成為一個為我的產業帶來好處的平台。但我只看後半部分，如果你問我的話，它會有點慢。我不會——我不是經濟學家，所以我不會超出那麼多。（多個發言者）

Yeah, is it fair to say that your vocational business is fairly stable? Is that a fair statement?

是啊，可以說你們的職業生意還算穩定嗎？這是一個公平的說法嗎？

Yes. Our vocational business is fairly stable, which is a pretty solid indicator. I will say that a lot of the medium-duty demand has been met. I wouldn't look for continued growth or medium-duty big orders in this back half. I think that will slow down a little bit from where it has been, but it's not troughing terribly. Like we said, our Q3, but I'm not sold out in Q4 there.

是的。我們的職業業務相當穩定，這是一個相當可靠的指標。我想說的是，很多中型需求已經被滿足。我不會在後半段尋求持續成長或中型大訂單。我認為這會比之前的情況有所放緩，但並沒有嚴重陷入低谷。就像我們說的，我們的第三季度，但我在第四季還沒有賣完。

So where we have been pretty sold out for a couple-plus years running in medium duty, we're not going to be -- I'm not a year out when I look at it anymore. But that doesn't mean it's terrible. Look, reality is, you're not supposed to be sold out a year ahead. Let's get back to real world. And I think that's one of the things I'm most proud of is how we manage inside these types of situations, and it's showing in the numbers that we're producing, and it will continue to show.

因此，我們已經在中型任務中運行了幾年多，但我們不會——當我再看它時，我已經不再是一年了。但這並不意味著它很可怕。聽著，現實是，你不應該提前一年就被賣光。讓我們回到現實世界。我認為我最引以為傲的事情之一就是我們如何在這些類型的情況下進行管理，這在我們正在產生的數字中得到了體現，並且將繼續體現。

You know I'm pretty conservative. Judging by where we end up plus where we're at sometimes, in the back of my head, I probably -- I always bet on us, probably bet more on us, because these people that work with me and beside me every day, all 8,000 of them, they prove that they execute extremely well. And just as we have this year and the prior few years.

你知道我很保守。從我們最終的結果以及我們有時所處的位置來判斷，在我的腦海裡，我可能——我總是在我們身上下注，可能會在我們身上下更多的賭注，因為這些每天和我一起工作、在我身邊的人，他們總共 8,000 人，證明他們的執行力非常好。正如我們今年和前幾年的情況一樣。

I guess sometimes, I wish everybody understood the diversification of the company. And I hope this year proves it to anyone that if this is the trough middle year of a five-year run, you're in pretty good shape. We're in pretty good shape. It's all I can tell you. And I think the numbers are going to play out to where, yeah, we're going to sell less trucks, but we're going to do a good job of managing through it, given the diversification of our earnings stream and what we do and how we go to market and expense stuff.

我想有時候，我希望每個人都了解公司的多元化。我希望今年能向所有人證明，如果今年是五年運行的最低谷，那麼你的狀態相當不錯。我們的狀態非常好。這就是我能告訴你的一切。我認為這些數字將會發揮作用，是的，我們將銷售更少的卡車，但考慮到我們的收入來源和我們所做的事情的多元化，我們將做好管理工作以及我們如何進入市場和費用。

Look, we're down G&A -- I never talk about SG&A, I talk about G&A. Q1 to Q2, we're down 4.7% in G&A. That's outstanding, okay? That is truly outstanding. And so I'm very proud of our people for doing more with less, and we will continue to execute that way. And we'll -- when the market does pick back up, which I believe will get real fast, we'll get to those numbers I've been talking about the last three or four years, in '25 and '26. We will execute. You've got that commitment for me.

看，我們在 G&A 方面有所下降——我從不談論 SG&A，我談論的是 G&A。第一季到第二季度，我們的一般管理費用下降了 4.7%。這很出色，好嗎？這確實是非常出色的。因此，我為我們的員工事半功倍感到非常自豪，我們將繼續以這種方式執行。當市場確實回升時（我相信會很快），我們將在 25 年和 26 年達到我過去三、四年一直在談論的那些數字。我們將執行。你對我做出了這樣的承諾。

(Operator Instructions) [AB Arosolowicz], UBS.

（操作員說明）[AB Arosolowicz]，UBS。

So I just wanted to dig into vocational a little bit more. Just kind of want to understand, how much do you think that continued strong demand there has to do with that area of the marketing just a healthier market overall fundamentally, versus there maybe just having been more leftover pent-up demand after the past couple of years of tighter supply, kind of similar to what we saw with medium duty?

所以我只是想更深入地研究職業。只是想了解一下，您認為持續強勁的需求與該行銷領域有多大關係，從根本上來說，這是一個更健康的市場，而在過去的幾年之後，可能只是有更多剩餘的被壓抑的需求多年來的供應緊張，有點類似我們在中型負荷中看到的情況？

Well, I don't think that really -- it's not from leftover demand. We were taking care of Class 8 demand regardless, balancing it through the last few years. I think it has to do with more of the money the government has been throwing at it. And I think some of these customers got a little bit behind, back coming out of COVID, and they're still catching up with where they got a little bit behind in the age of their fleets, not necessarily because the -- well, they -- it was balanced across the board, but they didn't take the hits in their business, the over-the-road business did, right? So those guys have had to slow down somewhat this year.

嗯，我不這麼認為——這不是來自剩餘需求。不管怎樣，我們一直在照顧 8 類需求，並在過去幾年中保持平衡。我認為這與政府投入更多資金有關。我認為其中一些客戶有點落後了，從新冠疫情中恢復過來，他們仍在追趕他們在機隊時代落後的地方，不一定是因為——嗯，他們——整體上是平衡的，但他們的業務並沒有受到打擊，而是陸路業務受到了打擊，對嗎？所以這些人今年不得不放慢腳步。

I do believe this will continue. I feel good about next year. I'm not going to get out and talk about two- and three-year runs, but I do believe our vocational business will continue to be good. We had some issues. We could have done more vocational business this year, except there's been a lack of -- we had a component issue with transmissions, or we would have sold more this year than what we have. So we've got to believe that that business will carry over into '25. What business didn't get booked -- and I can't quantify it exactly for you, but that business will get carried over to '25 because that demand is still there. given what's going on. So I feel really good about where it's going to continue to be strong -- excuse me, into '25.

我相信這種情況將會持續下去。我對明年感覺很好。我不會出去談論兩年和三年的運行，但我確實相信我們的職業業務將繼續良好。我們遇到了一些問題。我們今年本可以做更多的職業業務，除非缺乏——我們在變速箱方面遇到了組件問題，否則我們今年的銷量會比我們現有的還要多。所以我們必須相信這項業務將延續到 25 年。哪些業務沒有被預訂——我無法為您準確量化，但該業務將延續到 25 年，因為需求仍然存在。鑑於正在發生的事情。所以我對它在 25 年繼續保持強勁的勢頭感到非常滿意。

And then sometime in '25, we're going to pick up in the over-the-road business. The LTL business will still be good with our LTL customers. But the small customer, they're always being taken out of the market. You'll show back up by the end of '25, you watch. And I think the over-the-road business will pick up somewhere in '25, as I said, with maybe orders coming in late this year.

然後在 25 年的某個時候，我們將開始開展公路業務。我們的零擔客戶的零擔業務仍然會很好。但小客戶，他們總是被擠出市場。你會在 25 年底回來的，你看。正如我所說，我認為公路業務將在 25 年某個時候有所回升，也許訂單會在今年晚些時候到來。

I could be wrong. It could roll into next year, just depending on -- if this is the bottom, I do believe people are going to start thinking about how they get ready for January 1 of '27 and how they position their fleets from an age perspective going into all of that. But no, vocational should still be solid from a -- best take I can give you. We're not looking for a no, I will -- we're not looking for anything going backwards. Over across the board when you look across the whole country. So that would be my response.

我可能是錯的。它可能會持續到明年，這取決於——如果這是底部，我相信人們將開始思考他們如何為 27 年 1 月 1 日做好準備，以及他們如何從年齡的角度定位他們的艦隊所有這些。但不，職業仍然應該是堅實的——我能給你的最好的看法。我們不是在尋找“不”，我會的——我們不是在尋找任何倒退的事情。當你放眼整個國家時，你會看到全面的情況。這就是我的回應。

Okay. Got it. Appreciate that. And then just in terms of your comments about the more competitive truck pricing in the second half, any way you can kind of dimensionalize that in terms of like year-over-year price changes? And just to what extent does it vary by OEM? I'm assuming that we're really just talking about the over-the-road Class 8, but also curious if you think that should stick kind of as we go into 2025 and it's really more of like a market share battle over pricing or really just temporary and keeping things moving throughout some inventory here in a weak second half.

好的。知道了。很欣賞這一點。然後，就您對下半年更具競爭力的卡車定價的評論而言，您有什麼方法可以根據同比價格變化來衡量這一點嗎？不同 OEM 之間的差異有多大？我假設我們實際上只是在談論越野8 級車，但也很好奇你是否認為在我們進入2025 年時這種情況應該持續下去，這實際上更像是一場關於定價或價格的市場份額之爭。

Well, when I say it's going to be more competitive, it will be more competitive. Understand though, the third quarter business is already booked, okay? It's not like we're booking Q3 business really right now. We're in the middle -- we're one month through a three-month quarter, so that's -- there's not much I can do to move that.

好吧，當我說它會變得更有競爭力時，它就會變得更有競爭力。不過請注意，第三季的業務已經預訂了，好嗎？我們現在並不是真的在預訂第三季的業務。我們正處於中間——三個月的季度已經過去一個月了，所以——我無能為力來改變這一點。

I think when you talk about pricing, we have -- when you look at our inventories, I'm very comfortable that we have our inventories mark-to-market. We do that every quarter and have done that for 27 years. I don't come out and talk about it. When you look at what -- truly our inventories, we're very prudent about making sure we understand where the market is and the demand and that we're -- and that's not just used, that's new also, across stores. So I feel good that we're -- when I say we're going to be competitively set up to do what we should do with our inventories.

我認為，當你談論定價時，我們——當你查看我們的庫存時，我對我們的庫存按市值計價感到非常滿意。我們每個季度都會這樣做，並且已經這樣做了 27 年。我不出來談論這件事。當你查看我們真正的庫存時，我們非常謹慎地確保我們了解市場在哪裡、需求和我們的庫存，這不僅僅是二手的，而且是跨商店的新庫存。因此，當我說我們將有競爭力地利用我們的庫存做我們應該做的事情時，我感覺很好。

When I talk about -- it's going to be more competitive, but not crazy competitive, if that makes any sense. People -- I think the OEMs are going to show decent discipline. They're going to show decent discipline because this is just a moment in time. That doesn't mean there won't be some more competitiveness, and that's really what I was trying to say. But not crazy overcompetitive. It's like I saw, going way back to 2009 or sometime like that, when it was a 92,000-Class 8 truck market.

當我談到——如果這有道理的話，競爭將會更加激烈，但不會是瘋狂的競爭。人們——我認為原始設備製造商將表現出良好的紀律。他們將表現出良好的紀律，因為這只是一個時刻。這並不意味著不會有更多的競爭力，這正是我想說的。但並不是瘋狂的過度競爭。就像我看到的那樣，可以追溯到 2009 年或類似的時候，當時 8 級卡車市場有 92,000 輛。

So because understanding that all you're doing is you're setting yourself up now when the market picks up to have to -- because I think the majority of all these cost increases have been required. Remember when inflation was like drove it all up. So OEMs had to catch up and they have done that, and they don't want to get back in that situation again. Will they be more competitive in certain situations or certain deals? Probably, as needed, because they still do need some fourth quarter build, okay?

因此，因為要明白，你所做的就是在市場回升時做好準備——因為我認為所有這些成本增加中的大部分都是需要的。還記得通貨膨脹什麼時候推高了一切嗎？因此，原始設備製造商必須迎頭趕上，他們已經做到了，他們不想再次陷入這種情況。他們在某些情況或某些交易中會更具競爭力嗎？可能，根據需要，因為他們仍然需要一些第四季度的建設，好嗎？

At the same time, they'll manage build rates down. I guarantee you build rates are coming down, finally. That was one of the things that got out of whack. We've got way too much inventory across the whole country right now. You can go look at it. It's out awhile a little bit to almost an on-time high. But they'll have to slow down. I know OEMs are slowing down build rates.

同時，他們將降低建置率。我保證你的建造率最終會下降。這是出了問題的事情之一。我們現在全國各地的庫存太多了。你可以去看看。它已經有一段時間了，幾乎達到了準時的高點。但他們必須放慢速度。我知道原始設備製造商正在放慢生產速度。

And by the way, I'm not getting specific to any OEMs. I'm just talking broadly here. But I know build rates are going to come down. They have to. You'll see that throughout the back half of the year. I think they'll continue to decline through Q4. When you look at how many -- I don't remember the exact stats, I don't have on me today, I expect build rates to be down 15%, 20% because they stay high too long. They've got too much inventory shoved out. They've got to bring them down. There's only so much the market can take.

順便說一句，我並沒有具體針對任何 OEM。我這裡只是泛泛而談。但我知道建造率將會下降。他們必須這樣做。整個下半年你都會看到這一點。我認為他們將在第四季度繼續下降。當你看看有多少——我不記得確切的統計數據，我今天沒有，我預計​​構建率會下降 15%、20%，因為它們保持在高位的時間太長了。他們已經擠出了太多的庫存。他們必須把他們打倒。市場能承受的就這麼多了。

So that's my overall view of where we're at when it comes to trucks and where they're at. But we feel that when you take build rate out, you'll relieve some of the pressure on pricing, right, when you stop overbuilding. So I think we got a little bit too overbuilt here. I think build rates are coming down.

這就是我對卡車及其現狀的整體看法。但我們認為，當你取消建置率時，當你停止過度建置時，你會減輕一些定價壓力。所以我認為我們這裡的建設有點過度了。我認為建造率正在下降。

I think build rates will be positioned to be ramped back up, but it will be a little more competitive. Is it going to be under what I've told people? No, it's not. But we're going to be at our highest on highs of '23? No, but we're not currently. We're going to stay pretty consistent. You'll see our blended rates probably fairly consistent, which it should be with where we are currently. I don't look for our margins blended. Our blended margins on trucks, I don't look for them to come backwards really from where they're at right now. That's all I can tell you.

我認為建造率將會回升，但會更具競爭力。會按照我告訴人們的方式進行嗎？不，不是。但我們會在 23 年達到最高點嗎？不，但我們目前還沒有。我們將保持相當一致。您會看到我們的混合費率可能相當一致，這應該與我們目前的情況一致。我不希望我們的利潤混合在一起。我們卡車的混合利潤，我並不認為它們會比現在的情況真正倒退。我只能告訴你這些。

But it will be more competitive. But we believe we've marked our stuff to market, and we're prepared to do that. And I expect any orders we get will be competitive, but not to the point of dramatically knocking a couple of points or something like that out of margins, okay?

但它會更具競爭力。但我們相信我們已經將我們的產品推向市場，並且我們已經準備好這樣做。我預計我們收到的任何訂單都將具有競爭力，但不會達到大幅降低利潤率或類似水平的程度，好嗎？

I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Rusty for closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。現在我想將電話轉回給 Rusty，讓其致閉幕詞。

Yes. First off, I just want to thank our employees one more time. I know I've mentioned them a couple of times on this call, but I can't mention them enough. Their persistence and their execution of our strategies in spite of us, we did, I reduced some expenses, and we will continue along those lines so that we can do the right thing and produce the kind of results we're producing right now. So I would just like to thank them one more time for their efforts during this last quarter.

是的。首先，我想再次感謝我們的員工。我知道我在這次電話會議中多次提到他們，但我怎麼提都不夠。儘管我們不顧他們的堅持和對我們策略的執行，我們確實做到了，我減少了一些開支，我們將繼續沿著這些路線前進，以便我們能夠做正確的事情並產生我們現在正在產生的那種結果。因此，我想再次感謝他們在上一季所做的努力。

It was tough, but we're dialed in right now, and we're going to execute, try to stay pretty flat in the back -- like I said, in parts and service, work on our expenses a little bit with where we're at because remember, I did this during the quarter. We did it during the quarter, so it'll be a little -- hopefully a little bit more reduction that took place in the back half of the quarter. We're not looking to do any more, but just the fact that it was rolling to this last quarter, and we still continue to produce these outstanding results, and I look forward to continuing to do that for our shareholders and for the company.

這很艱難，但我們現在已經撥通了，我們將執行，嘗試在後面保持相當平坦 - 就像我說的，在零件和服務方面，在我們的開支上稍微努力一下因為請記住，我在本季這樣做了。我們在本季做到了這一點，所以希望在本季後半段減少一點。我們不打算再做更多的事情，但事實是，它已經滾動到了最後一個季度，我們仍然繼續取得這些出色的業績，我期待著繼續為我們的股東和公司這樣做。

So thank you all very much, and we'll talk to you again in October, I guess. So appreciate it. Thank you.

非常感謝大家，我想我們會在 10 月再次與你們交談。所以很欣賞它。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。