Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to Rush Enterprises Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings results. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎收看 Rush Enterprises Inc. 2023 年第四季財報。（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to Rusty Rush, President, CEO and Chairman of the Board. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想將會議交給總裁、執行長兼董事會主席 Rusty Rush。先生，您可以開始了。

Well, good morning, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter Year End 2023 Earnings Release Call on the golf, Mike Mike Roberts, Chief Operating Officer, Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer, Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller, and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

早安，歡迎參加我們關於高爾夫的 2023 年第四季度財報電話會議，首席營運官 Mike Mike Roberts、首席財務官 Steve Keller、副總裁兼財務總監 Jay Hazelwood 以及高級副總裁 Michael Goldstone總裁、總法律顧問兼公司秘書。

Now Steve will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

現在史蒂夫將就前瞻性陳述說幾句話。

Certain statements being made today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and for factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to those discussed in our annual report on Form 10 K for the year ended December 31st, 2022, and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

今天發表的某些聲明被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性聲明。由於這些陳述包含風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異，並且可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的因素包括，但不限於我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10 K 表格年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的內容。

As indicated in our news release, we achieved annual revenues of $7.9 billion and net income was $347 million or $4.15 per diluted share. In the fourth quarter, we achieved revenues of $2 billion and net income of $78 million or $0.95 per diluted share. In addition, we are pleased to declare a cash dividend of $0.17 per common share. Throughout 2023, there was pent-up demand for new commercial vehicles new limited drug production over the past few years with respect to new Class eight trucks, that pent-up demand was largely fulfilled by the end of 2023.

正如我們的新聞稿所示，我們的年收入為 79 億美元，淨利潤為 3.47 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 4.15 美元。第四季度，我們實現了 20 億美元的收入和 7,800 萬美元的淨利潤，即稀釋後每股收益 0.95 美元。此外，我們很高興宣布派發每股普通股 0.17 美元的現金股利。在整個2023年，對新型商用車的需求被壓抑，而過去幾年對新型八級卡車的藥品生產受到限制，這一被壓抑的需求到2023年底基本得到滿足。

With respect to the Class four through seven commercial vehicles. Demand remains solid. The manufacturers we represent revenue increased production throughout the year, which led us to significant or believe is significantly outpacing the industry with respect to new Class four through seven commercial vehicle sales despite a challenging operating environment in 2023 caused by low freight rates and high interest rates, which led to grip general softness in parts and service sales industry-wide. We were able to achieve a healthy growth for the aftermarket revenues.

對於四級至七級商用車。需求依然強勁。我們代表的製造商全年產量增加，這導致我們在新型四至七級商用車銷售方面顯著或相信顯著超過行業，儘管由於低運費和高利率導致 2023 年經營環境充滿挑戰，這導致整個行業的零件和服務銷售普遍疲軟。我們的售後市場收入實現了健康成長。

Growth was due primarily to our ability to support large leads and strong demand from the diverse range of market segments we support, including our revenues, public sector, wholesale and energy customers. In addition, our aftermarket revenues also increased due to the addition of 215 service technicians to our network. Expanding our service technician workforce is a key aspect in certain of our strategic initiatives.

成長主要歸功於我們支持大量潛在客戶的能力以及我們支持的各種細分市場的強勁需求，包括我們的收入、公共部門、批發和能源客戶。此外，由於我們的網路增加了 215 名服務技術人員，我們的售後市場收入也有所增加。擴大我們的服務技術人員隊伍是我們某些策略措施的關鍵面向。

Overall, we are very proud of both our operational and financial performance in 2023. In the aftermarket, our annual parts service and body shop revenues were $2.6 billion, up 8% over 2022 to have the positive results and our annual absorption rate was 135.3%.

總體而言，我們對 2023 年的營運和財務表現感到非常自豪。在售後市場，我們的零件服務和車身修理廠年度收入為26億美元，比2022年增長8%，取得了積極的成果，我們的年度吸收率為135.3%。

As I previously mentioned, we added 215 in service to technicians to our network last year, which enhanced our ability to execute on certain of our strategic initiatives, including express services, contract maintenance and mobile service offerings. We also also experienced healthy parts sales growth from our energy revenues and leasing.

正如我之前提到的，去年我們在網路中增加了 215 名技術人員，這增強了我們執行某些策略計畫的能力，包括快遞服務、合約維護和行動服務產品。我們的能源收入和租賃也實現了零件銷售的健康成長。

Just looking ahead, we expect the challenging rate conditions and high interest rates will continue to impact our customers and that aftermarket demand in the first half of 2024 will be similar to the second half of 2023. However, we are cautiously optimistic that the current freight recession may begin to ease in summer. In addition, we believe that our diverse customer base, our ability to support large national fleets and our ongoing focus on our strategic aftermarket initiatives will allow us to outpace the aftermarket industry and to achieve flat to modest aftermarket growth in 2024.

展望未來，我們預計充滿挑戰的利率條件和高利率將繼續影響我們的客戶，2024 年上半年的售後市場需求將與 2023 年下半年相似。不過，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，目前的貨運衰退可能會在夏季開始緩解。此外，我們相信，我們多元化的客戶群、我們支持大型國家車隊的能力以及我們對戰略售後市場計劃的持續關注將使我們能夠超越售後市場行業，並在2024 年實現售後市場平穩至溫和的增長。

Turning to truck sales. We sold 17,457 new class-A trucks in 2023 accounting for 6.2% of the total US Class eighth market and 2% of the Class A market again. As previously stated, we experienced healthy demand from a variety of market segments. However, the pent-up demand in the Class A. market has been satisfied. Act Research forecasts Class eight retail sales to be 214,300 units in 2024, down roughly 22% from 2023.

轉向卡車銷售。2023年，我們銷售了17,457輛新A級卡車，占美國第八級市場總量的6.2%，再次佔A級市場的2%。如前所述，我們經歷了來自各個細分市場的健康需求。然而，A級市場被壓抑的需求已經被滿足。Act Research 預測 2024 年 8 類汽車零售量將為 214,300 輛，比 2023 年下降約 22%。

Though the industry is expecting new Class eight truck sales to be down significantly in 2024 due to challenging economic and industry conditions, we are confident that we'll be able to navigate a down year and outpace the industry in 2024 due to our strategic decisions we made in prior years to diversify our customer base and focus on vocational customers. Our Class four through seven new truck sales reached 13,644 units in 2023 or 5.1% of the US market and 2.9% of the Canadian market.

儘管由於經濟和行業條件充滿挑戰，該行業預計 2024 年新 8 級卡車銷量將大幅下降，但我們有信心，由於我們的戰略決策，我們將能夠度過下滑的一年並在 2024 年超越行業。前幾年我們致力於使我們的客戶群多樣化並專注於職業客戶。2023 年，我們的 4 至 7 級新卡車銷量達到 13,644 輛，占美國市場的 5.1% 和加拿大市場的 2.9%。

In addition to pent-up demand due to limited new medium-duty commercial vehicle production over the last few years, the manufacturers that we represent were able to increase production throughout the year. Those factors, along with our ongoing efforts to diversify our customer base and support large national accounts allowed us to significantly outperform the industry in 2023. We are still experiencing delays from truck body companies, and these delays impacted dealer deliveries during the fourth quarter, which limited our growth somewhat.

除了過去幾年新中型商用車產量有限且被壓抑的需求外，我們所代表的製造商全年都能夠增加產量。這些因素，加上我們不斷努力實現客戶群多元化和支持大型國民帳戶，使我們能夠在 2023 年大幅超越行業。我們仍然遇到卡車車身公司的延誤，這些延誤影響了第四季度經銷商的交付，這在一定程度上限制了我們的成長。

Act Research forecasts Class four to seven retail sales to be 254,250 units in 2023, up slightly from 202 one 22. As we look to execute in 2023. As we look ahead, we expect they will continue to see improvements in the medium duty commercial vehicle production for the manufacturers we represent and we expect customer demand to remain strong in both of these things occur. We believe our Class four to seven commercial vehicle sales remain strong in 2024.

Act Research 預測 2023 年四至七年級零售銷售將達到 254,250 輛，略高於 202 年 1 月 22 日。我們希望在 2023 年執行。展望未來，我們預計我們所代表的製造商的中型商用車生產將繼續得到改善，並且我們預計客戶需求將在這兩個方面保持強勁。我們相信 2024 年我們的四至七級商用車銷售將保持強勁。

Our used truck sales reached 7,117 units in 2023, relatively flat compared to 2022. Due to high interest rates and saw freight rates. Demand for used trucks was weak and used truck values declined throughout 2023. In 2024, we expect that demand for used trucks will remain flat, but that was the rate at which use gross depreciating will continue to decrease and that used truck values will stabilize somewhat over the course of the year. We are confident our diverse product mix and ability to move inventory throughout our network will help us to continue continue to effectively navigate the used truck market in 2024, assuming Looking ahead, we expect demand for Class eight trucks to be soft, while demand for Class four through seven commercial vehicles remains healthy.

2023 年，我們的二手卡車銷量達到 7,117 輛，與 2022 年相比相對持平。由於利率高而看到運費率。2023 年二手卡車需求疲軟，二手卡車價值下降。到 2024 年，我們預計二手卡車的需求將保持平穩，但使用總折舊率將繼續下降，二手卡車價值將在這一年中有所穩定。我們相信，我們多樣化的產品組合和在整個網路中轉移庫存的能力將幫助我們在2024 年繼續有效地駕馭二手卡車市場，假設展望未來，我們預計對8 級卡車的需求將疲軟，而對8級卡車的需求將疲軟。四到七輛商用車保持健康。

It should be noted that delays from body companies may continue to impact deliveries of new Class four through seven commercial unit. We will continue to monitor freight rates, interest rates, consumer spending and other economic factors that impact both commercial vehicle sales and aftermarket demand in our industry. Despite challenging market conditions, we are confident that the strategic decisions we've made in the past several years to diversify our customer base on supporting large national accounts and to add technicians to our workforce has us well positioned to perform in 2024. As always, it is important that I take a moment to thank our employees for their incredible work during 2023 and providing world-class service to our customers while staying focused on our company's long-term goals.

應該指出的是，車身公司的延誤可能會繼續影響新的四級至七級商業單元的交付。我們將繼續監控影響我們行業商用車銷售和售後市場需求的運費、利率、消費者支出和其他經濟因素。儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但我們相信，我們在過去幾年中為實現客戶群多元化、支持大型國民賬戶以及增加技術人員而做出的戰略決策，使我們能夠在 2024 年取得良好表現。像往常一樣，我需要花一點時間感謝我們的員工在 2023 年所做的出色工作，並在專注於我們公司的長期目標的同時為我們的客戶提供世界一流的服務。

With that, I have two questions thank you.

說到這裡，我有兩個問題，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Justin Long, Stephens.

（操作員說明）Justin Long，Stephens。

So I guess to start with the parts and service business, you've talked about the divergence in the trends between national accounts and the smaller customers. I'm curious how those two buckets performed in the fourth quarter and just your general level of confidence on a net basis parts and service businesses bottomed?

因此，我想從零件和服務業務開始，您談到了國民帳戶和小型客戶之間的趨勢差異。我很好奇這兩個類別在第四季度的表現如何，以及您對淨基礎零件和服務業務的整體信心水平是否觸底？

Well, a pretty good job. As I said in my notes, we expect to remain at least as good as where we are. I want to I didn't want to push it up. I think I think there's room for growth in parts and service in 2024. As I said at the worst, we would just be pacing along where we were in the second half of the year in 2023. When you look at butane as well, we'd love to do is take it into parts and pieces, right. At the end of the day, you look at the small accounts, right? We talked about this before last six months. Last couple of calls.

嗯，幹得不錯。正如我在筆記中所說，我們希望至少保持現狀。我想我不想把它推高。我認為 2024 年零件和服務還有成長空間。正如我所說，在最壞的情況下，我們也只會沿著 2023 年下半年的節奏前進。當您也看到丁烷時，我們很樂意將其分解成碎片，對吧。歸根結底，你會看小賬，對嗎？我們在過去六個月之前討論過這個問題。最後幾次通話。

The fact that for the year and they were down almost 12%. Now, quarter was, I don't have that in front of me, but I know it started only off about 8%, 6% -- so 7% to 8% in Q1 and ramped up throughout the year. So I've got to believe that Q4 was probably down somewhere in the 13% to 14% range. And what we call those are unassigned accounts. But what you don't realize sometimes those are those accounts still make up 32% of our business.

事實上，今年以來，它們下降了近 12%。現在，季度是，我面前沒有這個，但我知道它一開始只下降了大約 8%、6%——所以第一季是 7% 到 8%，然後全年都在上升。所以我必須相信第四季的下降幅度可能在 13% 到 14% 之間。我們稱之為未分配帳戶。但有時您沒有意識到這些客戶仍然占我們業務的 32%。

So when you look at what we did when you talk about being down like that really continued to decline over the year, you got to feel good about where you're at. Like I said before, you know, maybe our margins were under sulfur because some of the shift, what were the business we are doing over to more national accounts, which obviously no demand better pricing along with this, whether they're national accounts, right? So we were able to make up, but that's starting to do. A third of our business was down probably, I guess, and I don't have them in Q4 right firmly believe is pushing 12% for the year. And I know it could decline more as the year went up. So I got to believe it's in the 14% to 15% range in Q4, right?

因此，當你看到我們所做的事情時，當你談論這種情緒在這一年中確實持續下降時，你必須對自己所處的位置感覺良好。就像我之前說的，你知道，也許我們的利潤率較低，因為一些轉變，我們正在做的業務轉向了更多的國民賬戶，這顯然不需要更好的定價，無論它們是國民賬戶，正確的？所以我們能夠和好，但這已經開始了。我猜，我們有三分之一的業務可能下降了，而且我在第四季度沒有正確地相信他們今年會成長 12%。我知道隨著時間的推移，它可能會下降更多。所以我必須相信第四季的成長率在 14% 到 15% 之間，對嗎？

So it's you got to feel good about where we're at the focus that we've had and it's not just over the road customers, right. When I talk about the diversity of our customer base. I'm very proud of what we've done by putting a focus individually on each of these sectors. You know, assigning people at the highest corporate level from the mid-level. To aside, we have over 300 plus outside parts and service salespeople. And while they focus on some of their local midsize accounts, we have really put a push on to the national accounts.

因此，您必須對我們所關注的焦點感到滿意，而不僅僅是路邊的客戶，對吧。當我談到我們客戶群的多樣性時。我對我們透過單獨關注每個領域所做的工作感到非常自豪。你知道，從中層到公司最高層的人員分配。除此之外，我們還有 300 多名外部零件和服務銷售人員。雖然他們專注於一些當地的中型帳戶，但我們確實推動了國民帳戶。

And when you do that, you've got to you have to form relationships at both the high end of the corporation, all the way down to the street level on the in the individual areas that they have terminals or they have shopped or whatever they have, whatever business they're in across the network. So with that read allowed us to achieve an 8% growth rate would have been up 12% on a third of your business.

當你這樣做時，你必須在公司的高端，一直到街道層面，在他們擁有終端或購物過的各個區域建立關係。無論他們在網路上從事什麼業務。因此，透過閱讀，我們可以實現 8% 的成長率，而您的業務則可以成長 12%。

So you can see you're going to hit you can extrapolate what how good how what that meant to the company, right, while we were in what was a little softer because the unassigned accounts or your small accounts. And then a little higher margin accounts, right, but we were able to overcome them with that. I'd like to say percentage over a third of your business being up 12% by the focus that we had so fail and we don't see that changing.

所以你可以看到你會受到打擊，你可以推斷出這對公司意味著什麼，對吧，而我們由於未分配的帳戶或你的小帳戶而處於稍微軟一些的情況。然後是更高一點的保證金帳戶，對吧，但我們能夠克服它們。我想說的是，由於我們的焦點如此失敗，你們有三分之一以上的業務成長了 12%，我們認為這種情況不會改變。

So when the small guy does come back, you know, you got to feel real good about what you can what are you going to be what that does when that when that deal when it pivots back the other direction, which you've got to believe we've been in a freight recession for what a year and a half, two years, almost the same like of all got breached been doing decently well, the freight market is you'd argue there's read all the reports have been under a lot of stress here this last year.

因此，當這個小傢伙確實回來時，你知道，你必須對你能做什麼感到非常滿意，當它轉向另一個方向時，你會做什麼，當它轉向另一個方向時，你必須相信我們已經經歷了一年半、兩年的貨運衰退，幾乎所有遭受破壞的人都表現得不錯，你會說貨運市場已經讀過所有報告都在去年這裡壓力很大。

On the national accounts, do you have a number on how much they were up for the full year, just to compare that to what you're seeing with the unassigned accounts?

在國民帳戶上，您是否有全年增長的數字，只是為了與您在未分配帳戶中看到的情況進行比較？

Yes, they were up in the high teens to around 20, somewhere between 18 and 20. I don't again -- I don't have a total number of stores we're talking about, but they were up somewhere in that. And I could we break it into so many different segments to because we've still got a lot of midsized customers too. International again, Alistair, while there's a high the largest growing thing we have going on, we still have a lot of mid global midsize customers. We forget about the of their piece of it also sorry, you've got roughly what, 32% in the small you've got about 28% we've got national accounts, okay, of our business.

是的，他們的年齡在十幾歲到二十歲左右，大約在 18 歲到 20 歲之間。我又不知道了——我沒有我們正在談論的商店總數，但它們在其中的某個位置有所上升。我可以將其分為許多不同的部分，因為我們仍然有很多中型客戶。再次國際化，阿利斯泰爾，雖然我們正在進行最大的成長，但我們仍然有很多全球中型客戶。我們忘記了他們的一部分，也很抱歉，你大約有32%的小規模，你有大約28%，我們有國民帳戶，好吧，我們的業務。

So the other 40% is really that middle bucket, which is the largest bucket we touch, right? So that diversity of customers is really what's allowed us to navigate what you know, what has been a rough rough cloud for a lot of our customer base and that focus on vocational, right? When I talk about revenues being up. And I told you about oil and gas being up in our wholesale business, still being municipal being all these other areas are up to a Okay, regardless of whether they're national accounts or mid-level gas. We break it into a lot of different buckets, but those are the areas that have allowed us to overcome with 32% of your customers around 12% and still posted a positive year.

那麼另外 40% 確實是中間的桶，這是我們接觸到的最大的桶，對嗎？因此，客戶的多樣性確實使我們能夠了解您所知道的內容，對於我們的許多客戶群來說，這一直是一個粗糙的雲，並且專注於職業，對吧？當我談到收入成長時。我告訴過你石油和天然氣在我們的批發業務中處於上升狀態，仍然是市政領域，所有其他領域都處於良好狀態，無論它們是國民帳戶還是中級天然氣。我們將其分為許多不同的部分，但這些領域使我們能夠克服 32% 的客戶（約 12%）的困難，並且仍然取得了積極的一年。

Got it. And I was wondering to if you could share anything on expectations for the first quarter, maybe truck sales, parts and service. And Steve, I know typically you see an uptick in G&A, so maybe some thoughts there as well.

知道了。我想知道您是否可以分享第一季的預期，也許是卡車銷售、零件和服務。史蒂夫，我知道你通常會看到一般行政費用的上升，所以也許也有一些想法。

Yes. Well, first quarter is always G&A goes up we didn't put it in releases here. We put it over the last 25 years. If nothing's changed rights, all the equity comp and taxes, all that ramp back up and get expensed out in the first quarter of that is natural for our business. You can go back and model it every year. So we definitely expect that from a truck sales perspective, we are going to start declining.

是的。嗯，第一季的一般費用和行政費用總是上升，我們沒有將其放在此處的發布中。我們把它放在過去 25 年裡。如果沒有任何改變，所有的股權補償和稅收，所有這些都會在第一季回升並支出，這對我們的業務來說是很自然的。你每年都可以回去建模。因此，我們肯定預計從卡車銷售的角度來看，我們將開始下降。

Okay. There's no question the mill, everyone knows we've noted for a couple of years that 2024 was going to be a little bit soft due to no one expected 23 to be as big as it was well, the demand, the pent-up demand. But the key thing in the wholesale side is this is nothing that we didn't expect. We're not expecting a city as it down about 22%, and I'm going to agree with that. I don't expect it to be down 22% in Q1, but I do expect it to be softer and we expect to do better, by the way, given the diversity in our customer base.

好的。毫無疑問，工廠，大家都知道，我們幾年來就注意到，2024 年將有點疲軟，因為沒有人預計 23 會像以前那樣大，需求，被壓抑的需求。但批發方面的關鍵是，這並不是我們沒有想到的。我們預計不會出現一個城市下降 22% 左右的情況，我同意這一點。我預計第一季不會下降 22%，但我確實預計會更加疲軟，順便說一句，考慮到我們客戶群的多樣性，我們預計會做得更好。

Right. I can tell you that the overall business is going to be put tapped more like 30%-plus for the whole year, I believe. But the key thing is we've got 25 and 26 coupled with EPA regulations of [day one or 27], there will be -- I'm guessing as we get to the back half of this year, folks are going to wake up and realize that they are probably going to pre-buy at the 25, 26, given not just the new technology. But look, I mean, I won't get into prices pricing with the engines are going to cost to go up by day where I wanted 27 with all the new aftermarket for Africa excuse me, after treatment systems that are going and we're going into play to meet the new EPA regulations so that we believe the freight market will go back to the overall business is still the biggest piece of volume out there.

正確的。我可以告訴你，我相信全年整體業務的利用率將達到 30% 以上。但關鍵是我們已經有了 25 和 26 條，再加上 EPA 的規定 [第一天或 27 日]，我猜當我們到今年下半年時，人們就會醒來並意識到他們可能會在25日、26 日預購，不僅是因為新科技。但看，我的意思是，我不會討論引擎的定價，我想要 27 天，非洲所有新的售後市場，對不起，後處理系統正在運行，我們正在為滿足新的EPA 法規而發揮作用，因此我們相信貨運市場將恢復到整體業務量仍然是最大的一塊。

So not in Russia, which was we were 50-50 right between location on that, look in the real market is still the Americas piece. So, you know, those folks as they can get their feet underneath them. There is no longer an average like I said, they get their feet under. I would expect some will go up. Everybody start possibly in the back quarter toward the back half of this year as folks realize what the cost stuff will be around that equipment from an aftermarket perspective, the asset in the first half would be flat. When I went through it a minute ago, I have hopes that were up slightly about when we put that out there.

所以不是在俄羅斯，我們的位置之間是 50-50，看看真正的市場仍然是美洲市場。所以，你知道，那些人可以腳踏實地。就像我說的那樣，不再有平均數了，他們已經站穩腳跟了。我預計有些會上漲。每個人都可能從今年下半年的後季度開始，因為人們意識到從售後市場的角度來看，該設備的成本將是多少，上半年的資產將持平。當我一分鐘前瀏覽它時，我對我們把它放在那裡時的希望略有上升。

I think some of the initiatives we have are still we keep rolling them out and we still haven't gotten to fruition from a lot of the ones that we have rolled out over the last couple of years. So I got to believe that we're still really focused on would remember, we're also battling less inflation, okay. Regardless of the report yesterday, overall, obviously regulation is not what it was two years ago or even the first half of last year. So where it will be real growth, it will be taking share. That's what we focus on every day.

我認為我們仍然在不斷推出一些舉措，但過去幾年推出的許多舉措仍然沒有取得成果。所以我必須相信，我們仍然真正專注於記住，我們也在與更少的通貨膨脹作鬥爭，好吧。不管昨天的報告如何，整體而言，監管顯然已經不像兩年前，甚至去年上半年了。因此，只要有真正的成長，就會搶佔市場份額。這就是我們每天關注的焦點。

We get up the parts and service business has to take share. So I've got to believe that we're going to be, like I said, I said flat, I have hopes to do way better or a little better in. I'd love to say I could be here know low to mid singles up for the year, but in U.S., so it's not as easy to look at as it was the last couple of years, right? It's the day-to-day hand-to-hand combat type work, but I have all the governance of the world as I always do. I think the results bear that out of the organization and our strategic initiatives that we've laid out there and what we're focused on as a whole as a group to that, we can execute on those, right. I'd like to believe we've executed in the past. We'll continue to execute as we go forward regardless of what the truck sales market if I can't make a drug market, but I expect to do better. I don't want to -- I'm not going to guarantee, but I expect to do better than 22% I can promise you that.

我們把零件和服務業務搞起來，分得一杯羹。所以我必須相信我們會，就像我說的，我說平淡，我希望做得更好或更好一點。我想說我可以在這裡了解今年的中低單打，但在美國，所以它不像過去幾年那麼容易觀察，對吧？這是日常的肉搏戰類型的工作，但我一如既往地擁有世界的所有治理權。我認為結果表明，從組織和我們在那裡制定的策略性舉措以及我們作為一個整體作為一個團隊所關注的內容來看，我們可以執行這些，對吧。我願意相信我們過去已經處死過。如果我不能進入藥品市場，無論卡車銷售市場如何，我們都會繼續執行，但我希望能做得更好。我不想——我不會保證，但我可以向你保證，我希望做得比 22% 更好。

But that's going to be we're working that every day. You don't have the lead times. You don't have allocation like yet that's not out there anymore. So it's not like I've got a year long backlog of trucks, so I'll still say is posted and most of them are still selling approximately Walsum. Q2 luggage is up. So that's just where we're at. We're back to normal times.

但這將是我們每天都在努力的。你沒有交貨時間。您還沒有這樣的分配，但現在已經不存在了。因此，我並沒有積壓一年的卡車，所以我仍然會說已發布，其中大多數仍在銷售大約 Walsum。Q2行李到了。這就是我們現在的處境。我們又回到正常時代了

Okay. Let's just say that when it comes to truck sales, I do think we'll be back to what allocation this time almost next year that I can provide. I do believe that will come to pass, whether it's whether it's February or whether it's kind of April next year. I can't tell you but there's no doubt in my mind, we got to an allocation market and 25.

好的。這麼說吧，當談到卡車銷售時，我確實認為我們幾乎明年這個時候就會回到我可以提供的分配。我確實相信這將會成為現實，無論是明年二月還是四月。我不能告訴你，但我毫無疑問，我們進入了分配市場，25。

Got it. And last one for me. Rusty, you've talked about earnings expectations and free cash flow expectations and the trough in 2024, any change to your outlook there?

知道了。最後一張給我。Rusty，您談到了盈利預期、自由現金流預期以及 2024 年的低谷，您的展望有什麼變化嗎？

None whatsoever. I don't take back anything I've said the last couple years, Jay, and as usual we're focused on. I'd like to over deliver above that.

沒有任何。我不會收回過去幾年我說過的話，傑伊，和往常一樣，我們關注的焦點是。我想超額交付。

Yes, I like it. I'll leave it there. Thanks for asking.

是的，我喜歡它。我會把它留在那裡。謝謝你的詢問。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Are you calling the bottom of the cycle because that's what's your you know, it's a heavier coal. I don't think you called the bottom of the cycle before it seems that you're basically saying cycle will bottom sometime around this summer?

你之所以稱之為循環的底部，是因為那是你的，你知道，它是一種較重的煤炭。我不認為在您基本上是說週期將在今年夏天的某個時候觸底之前，您就已經說過週期的底部了？

Yes, I think so. I think where you're going to have a little carryover of when it goes back truck sales and I'm not talking about aftermarket business agribusiness totally there. But when it comes to Class eight truck sales, I say that, you know, the summer is going to be a little more difficult than what we have experienced the others will carry over to Q1 from finishing up the year. Remember, we're at the end of the frame. We don't manufacture and we deliver a lot of them from state bodies and things like that, it can be up to 60 to 90 days for those start to get delivered to our customer base, especially on the vocational side.

是的，我想是這樣。我認為當卡車銷售回升時，你將會有一些結轉，我並不是談論售後市場業務農業綜合企業。但當談到八級卡車銷售時，我說，你知道，這個夏天將比我們經歷過的其他人經歷的情況要困難一些，這些情況將延續到今年結束時的第一季。請記住，我們正處於框架的末端。我們不製造產品，而是從國家機構等機構交付大量產品，這些產品可能需要長達 60 到 90 天的時間才能交付給我們的客戶群，尤其是在職業方面。

So yes, I would tell you that little trough for us in Class eight deliveries will probably be sometime this summer. But again, like I said, I do expect it affected the freight market cannot continue. I don't believe two biggest represents the last couple of years. So, you know, I would expect that to pick up and along with the EPA emission laws of 27 -- January 1 of '27, I do firmly believe will be a pre-buy without question. I think most people expect 2026 to be the biggest year in history given based on economic conditions overall in the country, right.

所以，是的，我會告訴你，我們八級交付的小低谷可能會在今年夏天的某個時候出現。但正如我所說，我確實預計它對貨運市場的影響不會持續下去。我不認為兩個最大的代表了過去幾年。所以，你知道，我預計隨著 27 年 1 月 1 日 EPA 排放法的實施，我堅信這將是毫無疑問的預購。我認為，根據該國整體經濟狀況，大多數人預計 2026 年將是歷史上最重要的一年，對吧。

So yes, I mean, I would tell you truck sales will be the real soft bird and the second on the summer of into Q2 and Q3 then what we have seen. But again, we believe as a 22%, I think the majority of it will be in summer. But I expect to start bouncing back by the end of the year.

所以，是的，我的意思是，我會告訴你卡車銷售將是真正的軟鳥，並且是第二季度和第三季度夏季的第二大銷售，然後是我們所看到的。但我們再次相信，作為 22% 的人，我認為其中大部分將發生在夏季。但我預計到今年年底就會開始反彈。

Excellent. And when can you just remind us when is used pricing bottoming?

出色的。什麼時候可以提醒我們什麼時候使用定價觸底？

I wish I think, Andrew. If I can tell you that I may give you a raise, okay, which I would gladly take. But anyway, I'm going to do fine, Ross. I think we're doing fine as a matter of fact, I would agree with that. Probably overplayed. Did I say that?

我希望我能這麼想，安德魯。如果我可以告訴你我可以給你加薪，好吧，我很樂意接受。但無論如何，我會做得很好，羅斯。我認為事實上我們做得很好，我同意這一點。大概是玩過頭了吧。我有這麼說過嗎？

No. Don't say that.

不。別這麼說。

Andrew, I would say it's I will say this used the decline in used truck pricing has continued. While it is not as dramatic as what it was a year-and-a-half ago. It is still declining more than normal. I think our average used truck price was like [53,000]. And when you look at average and if you go back to 19 resigning directors and authority to high 40s or something like that, 47,000, 48,000.

安德魯，我想說的是，這是因為二手卡車價格持續下降。雖然它並不像一年半前那麼戲劇化。它仍然比正常情況下降得更多。我認為我們的二手卡車平均價格是這樣的[53,000]。當你看平均數時，如果你回到 19 名辭職董事和 40 多歲或類似的權威，則為 47,000、48,000。

So you've got to believe with the inflationary of what trucks cost now that's red has gotten is the U.S. only so far it could go, but the problem is that pricing is one thing. Demand is the other, right? And when you've got spot markets, which are the main driver of used truck values in such rough shape and down so much is still and they use it and it will happen.

因此，你必須相信，隨著卡車成本的通貨膨脹，現在紅色的卡車在美國只能走這麼遠，但問題是定價是一回事。需求是另一個，對嗎？當你有現貨市場時，它是二手卡車價值的主要驅動力，在如此粗糙的狀態下，而且下跌幅度如此之大，他們使用它，這就會發生。

Quick wanted to add, as you want, I can't tell you when those semis, I guess they will give my raise, but exactly where but I would tell you I got to believe sometime before the year's out, but I don't look forward to the next. It will continue to decline at a faster rate, but not as fast as it was declining. There's still trucks being put on the market over a couple of batches this week on big numbers, but people drive down loads, which puts pressure on it puts pressure on the market.

奎克想補充一點，如你所願，我不能告訴你那些半決賽什麼時候，我想他們會給我加薪，但具體是在哪裡，但我會告訴你我必須相信在今年結束之前的某個時候，但我不期待下一個。它將繼續以更快的速度下降，但下降速度不會那麼快。本週仍有幾批大量卡車投放市場，但人們開著載貨量下降，這給市場帶來了壓力。

But the most important thing is to create demand, which means you got to get the spot market back you've got to have some of these others over the road business spot market back to really stabilize it and make it come to make used truck values go up again and of course, the stock is still is still decelerating faster than what I would say normal percentages are.

但最重要的是創造需求，這意味著你必須恢復現貨市場，你必須讓其他一些公路業務現貨市場恢復，以真正穩定它並使其成為二手卡車的價值再次上漲，當然，該股的減速速度仍然比我所說的正常百分比快。

But just a question in terms of macro and I always I love asking this question just because you have great systems, can you just take us around the country just by region, how is the economy holding up relative to your expectations, maybe six weeks ago, and I know that it's only six weeks, but you do have some of the best systems of anybody I cover. Just maybe you can take us around the country and tell us what's Rusty Rush's 30,000 foot view of the U.S. economy?

但這只是一個宏觀問題，我總是喜歡問這個問題，因為你們有很棒的系統，你能帶我們按地區遊覽全國嗎？相對於你的預期，經濟狀況如何，也許是六週前，我知道這只有六週的時間，但你們確實擁有我報道過的任何人中最好的系統。也許你可以帶我們走遍全國，告訴我們 Rusty Rush 在 30,000 英尺高處對美國經濟的看法是什麼？

Well, obviously the biggest concentration we add would be indexes, right? And Texas is doing just fine. Okay. Our Texas stores are still the other states still growing at normalized growing states in the nation and from both population and a business, you know perspective, our business is still coming in here, Florida, just to underwrite them where we've got to go up. We're going to work and we're getting through it. I would tell you a little softer maybe clearly in Ohio, as I am, but I think Illinois is decent and doing well. We go out west California is still in good shape. I do -- I worry about California within the 24 wildcard laws that came in at both that we have in the back half of the year. They may be suffering on the truck sales side. Right now they're doing fairly well but we've made sure to have some inventory, things like that to carry over into the markets out there.

嗯，顯然我們添加的最大重點是指數，對吧？德州的情況也不錯。好的。我們德州的商店仍然是全國正常成長州中仍在成長的其他州，從人口和商業角度來看，我們的業務仍在佛羅裡達州這裡，只是為了承保我們必須去的地方。我們要去工作，我們會度過難關。我會告訴你，俄亥俄州可能會更溫和一點，就像我一樣，但我認為伊利諾伊州還不錯，而且做得很好。我們出去西加州仍然狀況良好。我確實擔心加州在今年下半年發布的 24 項通配符法律。他們可能在卡車銷售方面遭遇困境。現在他們做得相當好，但我們已經確保有一些庫存，諸如此類的東西可以轉移到那裡的市場。

Whereas central almost real good loans from Arizona is decent. They're also pretty decent across the board has had a little softness in the rental status. So I'm really going to allow for whatever reason have notices or softer up there recently. But I don't expect that to hold up. I expect them to come back. So I'm hoping you'd have some I mean, glad you are on. And as I like to look at our markets our revenue, not just geographic markets, but other markets, maybe I'll break it out into the global construction is better. That's what we hope will help keep the order board better with the government on the hits that we're seeing on the Over the Road business, both from a large customer and for the small parts, which you know, pretty much capped right now out of our mix. But you know, revenues is really going strong.

而來自亞利桑那州的中央幾乎真正的良好貸款是不錯的。他們的整體表現也相當不錯，但租金狀況有些疲軟。因此，無論出於何種原因，我真的都會允許最近有通知或更溫和。但我不認為這種情況會持續下去。我期待他們回來。所以我希望你能有一些，我的意思是，很高興你能參加。由於我喜歡關注我們的市場，我們的收入，不僅僅是地理市場，還有其他市場，也許我會把它分解到全球建設中會更好。這就是我們希望能夠幫助政府更好地保持訂單板，以應對我們在公路業務上看到的打擊，無論是來自大客戶還是小零件，你知道，現在幾乎已經限制了我們的組合。但你知道，收入確實很強勁。

Construction is doing extremely well. Municipal business is holding strong with no moderate growth rates, as I said earlier, and we expect that to continue. You know, it's like I said, the hardest thing we've got going is the small customer, right? That's why when the small customer does come back on the road business, we're going to be in really good shape because we're having overcome that third of our business being up double digits. So you know, that's that we'll bring back and that'll I expect vocational to continue to be strong given that all the government monies that are out there that are being spent right now.

建築施工進度非常好。正如我之前所說，市政業務保持強勁，成長率不高，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。你知道，就像我說的，我們最難做的就是小客戶，對吧？這就是為什麼當小客戶確實重返公路業務時，我們的狀況將會非常好，因為我們已經克服了三分之一的業務成長兩位數的問題。所以你知道，這就是我們將帶回來的，考慮到目前所有政府資金都在花掉，我預計職業行業將繼續保持強勁。

So no, look, 24 is not going to be what 23 was. But at the same time, it's going to be I'll stick to my goals, as I was asked earlier by or by just about what I've said in the past is to we'll still execute the truck market. I can't like drug market by bulk onshore and to take share and grow in the aftermarket and that's the goal of the organization, probably the most profitable business we do.

所以不，看，24 不會是 23 的樣子。但同時，我將堅持我的目標，正如我之前被問及的那樣，我過去說過我們仍將執行卡車市場。我不喜歡在岸上散裝藥品市場，並在售後市場上佔據份額並發展壯大，這是該組織的目標，可能是我們所做的最賺錢的業務。

So if I were to summarize it, truck market is bottoming economies, solid Rush Enterprises is executing. Is that a fair summary?

因此，如果我總結一下，卡車市場正在觸底反彈，堅實的 Rush Enterprises 正在執行。這是一個公平的總結嗎？

That's what we like to think that, you know, I guess, through further Spirit numbers, but I think we've had a fairly even during the COVID year, right? And 20 at and what we did in 21, what we didn't want to what we did 23, we're going to execute really well. I believe inside of what's 24 market with a 20%-plus Class eighth decline, it may be that balance.

這就是我們喜歡的想法，你知道，我想，透過進一步的精神數字，但我認為我們在新冠疫情期間表現相當均勻，對嗎？20 號以及我們在 21 號所做的事情、我們不想要的事情以及我們在 23 號所做的事情，我們都會執行得非常好。我相信，在 24 個市場中，第八類跌幅超過 20% 的情況下，可能就是這種平衡。

So we're better than that. I don't want to guarantee anything, but I'd like to see us only be half of that, but I can't guarantee that because I've still can build this up and is still a moving target, right? We're back to normalized times. We got to get out of this allocation world we live in. And so you are going to sharpen up their sharpen up their tools and go to work and get out there and take some share to the Company in a little more competitive environment. But we've always been able to do that now.

所以我們比那更好。我不想保證任何事情，但我希望看到我們只是其中的一半，但我不能保證這一點，因為我仍然可以建立這個，並且仍然是一個移動目標，對吧？我們又回到了正常化的時代。我們必須擺脫我們所處的這個分配世界。因此，你要磨礪他們的工具，去工作，走出去，在競爭更激烈的環境中為公司分一杯羹。但我們現在一直能夠做到這一點。

Well, you know, my view. You guys have built a high-quality organization. Thanks a lot.

嗯，你知道，我的觀點。你們已經建立了一個高品質的組織。多謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Leslie for closing remarks.

謝謝。女士們先生們，我不會在隊列中顯示任何其他問題。我現在想將電話轉回給萊斯利，讓其致閉幕詞。

Yes. So I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning, and we will see you in mid April at you and your loved ones. Have a happy Valentine's Day. Thank you very much.

是的。因此，我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們將在四月中旬與您和您所愛的人見面。祝情人節快樂。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。