Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 Sunrun Inc.

女士們先生們，下午好，歡迎來到 Q4 Sunrun Inc.

Earnings Conference Call.

收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Patrick Jobin, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Patrick Jobin 先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，運營商。

And thank you for those on the call for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this conference call constitute forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們將在本次電話會議上發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。

Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely.

儘管我們認為這些陳述反映了我們根據我們目前已知的因素做出的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大不利差異。

Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

請參閱公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。

Please also note, these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

另請注意，這些聲明是在今天作出的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改它們的義務。

On the call today are Lynn Jurich, Sunrun's Cofounder and CEO; Bob Komin, Sunrun's CFO; and Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Cofounder and Executive Chairman.

今天的電話會議是 Sunrun 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Lynn Jurich； Sunrun 的首席財務官 Bob Komin； Sunrun 的聯合創始人兼執行主席 Ed Fenster。

The presentation today will use slides, which are available on our website at investors.sunrun.com.

今天的演示將使用幻燈片，這些幻燈片可在我們的網站 investors.sunrun.com 上獲取。

And now let me turn the call over to Lynn.

現在讓我把電話轉給林恩。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝，帕特里克。

We are pleased to share with you Sunrun's fourth quarter and full year financial and operating results, along with progress against our strategic priorities.

我們很高興與您分享 Sunrun 第四季度和全年的財務和運營業績，以及我們戰略重點的進展情況。

In the fourth quarter, we added more than 14,700 customers, representing 115 megawatts of deployments, again breaking the record for the highest quarterly volume in the company's history.

第四季度，我們增加了 14,700 多個客戶，代表了 115 兆瓦的部署，再次打破了公司歷史上最高季度數量的記錄。

We generated $116 million of net present value and created NPV per watt of $1.21 or over $9,600 per customer.

我們產生了 1.16 億美元的淨現值，並創造了 1.21 美元的每瓦 NPV 或超過 9,600 美元的每位客戶。

In 2018, we executed our full year volume, NPV margin and cash generation targets.

2018 年，我們實現了全年銷量、淨現值利潤率和現金生成目標。

We grew deployments over 15% in the year.

這一年我們的部署增長了 15% 以上。

We added almost 50,000 customers, growing our total customer base by 29%, and closed out the year with about 233,000 customers.

我們增加了近 50,000 名客戶，使我們的總客戶群增長了 29%，並在這一年結束時擁有約 233,000 名客戶。

We are excited about the year ahead.

我們對未來的一年感到興奮。

We are introducing guidance for growth to accelerate in 2019, unit margins to expand further and cash generation to grow by more than 50% to over $100 million.

我們正在引入 2019 年增長加速、單位利潤率進一步擴大以及現金產生增長超過 50% 至超過 1 億美元的指導方針。

These strong financial and operating results can be achieved while continuing to invest in our customer experience and product leadership.

在繼續投資於我們的客戶體驗和產品領先地位的同時，可以獲得這些強勁的財務和運營成果。

By the end of 2018, we had installed nearly 5,000 Brightbox systems, and we expect Brightbox installations to grow in the triple digits in 2019.

到 2018 年底，我們已經安裝了近 5,000 個 Brightbox 系統，我們預計 2019 年 Brightbox 的安裝量將以三位數的速度增長。

We have already launched the service in 8 states, and it represents over 10% of our direct business and more than 25% in California.

我們已經在 8 個州推出了這項服務，占我們直接業務的 10% 以上，在加利福尼亞州佔 25% 以上。

Brightbox provides customers with backup power, ability to manage time-of-use pricing and offers Sunrun additional revenue streams through energy services.

Brightbox 為客戶提供備用電源、管理使用時間定價的能力，並通過能源服務為 Sunrun 提供額外的收入來源。

It also protects us against attempts by incumbents to undermine the value of residential solar.

它還保護我們免受現任者破壞住宅太陽能價值的企圖。

Today, we announced a large expansion with The Home Depot, further demonstrating the advantages of being the category leader.

今天，我們宣布了家得寶的大規模擴張，進一步展示了作為品類領導者的優勢。

We will offer our solar and Brightbox battery service at Home Depot stores in 15 states, including California.

我們將在 15 個州（包括加利福尼亞州）的 Home Depot 商店提供太陽能和 Brightbox 電池服務。

We expect installations arising from the new stores to ramp throughout the year.

我們預計新店的裝機量將在全年增加。

As David Wallace-Wells articulates, "The slowness of climate change is a fairytale.

正如 David Wallace-Wells 所說，“氣候變化緩慢是一個童話。

Not only is it happening faster than expected, its extreme weather events are destroying the very electric grid rely on.

它不僅發生得比預期的要快，而且它的極端天氣事件正在摧毀電網所依賴的東西。

We need to take action quickly."

我們需要迅速採取行動。”

Sunrun is helping our country decarbonize through our rapidly growing customer base and pioneering work building the grid architecture of the future.

Sunrun 正在通過我們快速增長的客戶群和構建未來電網架構的開創性工作幫助我們的國家脫碳。

Consumer preferences for clean energy they can control and rapid advancements in battery technology mean that households will increasingly get a major portion of their energy on-site.

消費者對他們可以控制的清潔能源的偏好以及電池技術的快速進步意味著家庭將越來越多地獲得大部分能源。

The available market size, our leadership position and declining costs support our 200,000-plus solar customers turning into millions, independent of regulatory structures.

可用的市場規模、我們的領導地位和不斷下降的成本支持我們的 200,000 多個太陽能客戶變成數百萬，不受監管結構的影響。

However, there is even more opportunity for Sunrun and our country's ability to decarbonize if we advance grid architectures that incorporate the full value these assets can provide.

然而，如果我們推進包含這些資產可以提供的全部價值的電網架構，Sunrun 和我們國家的脫碳能力就會有更多機會。

Therefore, we're designing our footprint of energy assets to provide ongoing value to utilities and grid operators as well as our individual customers.

因此，我們正在設計我們的能源資產足跡，為公用事業和電網運營商以及我們的個人客戶提供持續價值。

Most importantly, this will help us create a 100% clean energy future for Americans, a model for the rest of the world, whether or not you have solar panels on your roof.

最重要的是，這將幫助我們為美國人創造 100% 清潔能源的未來，成為世界其他地區的典範，無論您的屋頂上是否安裝了太陽能電池板。

Demonstrating our success with these initial efforts, Sunrun won its bid to provide 20 megawatts of energy capacity from Sunrun's Brightbox home solar and battery service to ISO New England, beginning in 2022.

從 2022 年開始，Sunrun 贏得了從 Sunrun 的 Brightbox 家用太陽能和電池服務向 ISO New England 提供 20 兆瓦能源容量的投標，證明了我們通過這些初步努力取得的成功。

We expect to deliver this capacity from approximately 5,000 New England customers.

我們希望從大約 5,000 名新英格蘭客戶那裡提供這種能力。

Our participation in this capacity market is the first time in The United States that a home solar and battery storage has directly participated alongside centralized power plants in a wholesale market.

我們參與這個容量市場在美國是第一次家庭太陽能和電池儲能與集中式發電廠一起直接參與批發市場。

This signals a transformational shift away from the traditional, more polluting centralized electricity model towards a system powered by local clean energy, like home solar and batteries.

這標誌著從傳統的、污染更嚴重的集中式電力模式向由本地清潔能源（如家用太陽能和電池）供電的系統的轉型轉變。

While the size of the award is small compared to our large and growing customer base, it is meaningful, because it suggests the future as utilities and regulators recognize the values our assets can provide to the grid.

雖然與我們龐大且不斷增長的客戶群相比，該獎項的規模很小，但意義重大，因為它預示著未來公用事業和監管機構將認識到我們的資產可以為電網提供的價值。

This also represents an incremental source of revenue for Sunrun, which would be upside to our current customer value.

這也代表了 Sunrun 的增量收入來源，這將有利於我們當前的客戶價值。

We conservatively estimate grid services, such as the capacity market in New England, could represent over $2,000 in customer NPV.

我們保守估計電網服務（例如新英格蘭的容量市場）可能代表超過 2,000 美元的客戶 NPV。

Our market share and density advantages will be an ongoing competitive advantage in accessing these opportunities.

我們的市場份額和密度優勢將成為獲取這些機會的持續競爭優勢。

Today, we also published our second annual impact report.

今天，我們還發布了第二份年度影響報告。

Sunrun is a company that is committed to leading in ESG and sustainability.

Sunrun 是一家致力於引領 ESG 和可持續發展的公司。

Our approach is to benefit everyone, our customers, our employees and the communities in which we operate as well as our business and financial partners.

我們的方法是讓每個人、我們的客戶、我們的員工和我們經營所在的社區以及我們的業務和金融合作夥伴受益。

I'm proud that Sunrun has prevented 3.7 million metric tons of CO2.

我為 Sunrun 減少了 370 萬噸二氧化碳排放而感到自豪。

We've also saved households over $300 million in electricity costs.

我們還為家庭節省了超過 3 億美元的電費。

A few other key highlights to point out for 2018.

2018 年需要指出的其他一些關鍵亮點。

We committed to and achieved 100% gender pay parity, we implemented a robust supplier code of conduct and we committed to developing 100 megawatts of solar for affordable multifamily housing over the next decade.

我們承諾並實現了 100% 的男女薪酬平等，我們實施了強有力的供應商行為準則，我們承諾在未來十年內為經濟適用房開發 100 兆瓦的太陽能。

I'll now turn the call over to Bob Komin, our CFO, to review Q4 performance and discuss guidance in more detail.

我現在將電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Bob Komin，以審查第四季度的業績並更詳細地討論指導。

Thanks, Lynn.

謝謝，林恩。

Customer NPV in the fourth quarter was approximately $9,600 or $1.21 per watt.

第四季度的客戶 NPV 約為 9,600 美元或每瓦 1.21 美元。

For the full year 2018, NPV per watt was $1.08, in line with our target level despite the headwinds from tax reform and tariffs, with continuing investments in growth and product leadership.

2018 年全年，每瓦 NPV 為 1.08 美元，符合我們的目標水平，儘管受到稅制改革和關稅的不利影響，並持續投資於增長和產品領先地位。

Project value per customer was approximately $34,900 or $4.38 per watt in Q4.

第 4 季度每位客戶的項目價值約為 34,900 美元或每瓦 4.38 美元。

As a reminder, project value is very sensitive to modest changes in geographic, channel and tax equity fund mix.

提醒一下，項目價值對地域、渠道和稅收股權基金組合的適度變化非常敏感。

Turning now to creation costs on Slide 9. In Q4, total creation costs were approximately $25,300 per customer or $3.17 per watt.

現在轉到幻燈片 9 的創建成本。在第 4 季度，總創建成本約為每位客戶 25,300 美元或每瓦 3.17 美元。

Similar to project value, creation costs can fluctuate quarter-to-quarter.

與項目價值類似，創建成本可能會按季度波動。

Creation costs per watt were down 4% year-over-year.

每瓦的製造成本同比下降 4%。

We expect creation costs to show modest declines for the full year 2019, even as we deploy more Brightbox battery systems.

我們預計 2019 年全年的生產成本將出現小幅下降，即使我們部署了更多的 Brightbox 電池系統。

As a reminder, our cost tax is not directly comparable to those of peers because of our channel partner business.

提醒一下，由於我們的渠道合作夥伴業務，我們的成本稅不能與同行直接比較。

Blended installations and costs per watt, which includes the cost of solar projects deployed by our channel partners, as well as installation costs incurred for Sunrun-built systems, improved by $0.13 year-over-year to $2.48 per watt.

混合安裝和每瓦成本（包括我們的渠道合作夥伴部署的太陽能項目成本，以及 Sunrun 構建的系統產生的安裝成本）同比增長 0.13 美元至每瓦 2.48 美元。

Install costs for systems built by Sunrun were $1.96 per watt.

Sunrun 構建的系統的安裝成本為每瓦 1.96 美元。

We expect the adoption rate of Brightbox batteries to continue to increase, which will carry a higher per watt cost but also a higher project value.

我們預計 Brightbox 電池的採用率將繼續增加，這將帶來更高的每瓦成本，但也會帶來更高的項目價值。

In Q4, our sales and marketing costs were $0.65 per watt.

在第四季度，我們的銷售和營銷成本為每瓦 0.65 美元。

Our total sales and marketing unit costs are calculated by dividing costs in the period by total megawatts deployed.

我們的總銷售和營銷單位成本是通過將期間的成本除以部署的總兆瓦來計算的。

A higher mix of direct business results in higher reported sales and marketing costs per watt, and it also means that there will be lower blended installation costs per watt over time due to the higher mix of direct business installations at a lower cost per watt.

更高的直接業務組合會導致報告的每瓦特銷售和營銷成本更高，這也意味著隨著時間的推移，每瓦特的混合安裝成本將更低，因為直接業務安裝的更高組合會以更低的每瓦成本。

For the full year 2018 compared to 2017, sales and marketing costs were higher and blended installed costs were lower by approximately $0.18 per watt.

與 2017 年相比，2018 年全年的銷售和營銷成本更高，混合安裝成本每瓦降低約 0.18 美元。

In Q4, G&A costs were $0.22 per watt, an $0.08 or 28% improvement year-over-year, demonstrating the benefits of operating leverage as the market leader.

在第四季度，G&A 成本為每瓦 0.22 美元，同比增長 0.08 美元或 28%，證明了作為市場領導者的運營槓桿的好處。

Finally, when we calculate creation costs, we subtract the GAAP gross margin contribution realized from our platform services.

最後，當我們計算創建成本時，我們減去從我們的平台服務中實現的 GAAP 毛利率貢獻。

This includes our distribution, racking and lead-generation businesses, as well as solar systems we sell for cash or with a third-party loan.

這包括我們的分銷、貨架和潛在客戶開發業務，以及我們以現金或第三方貸款出售的太陽能係統。

We achieved platform services gross margin of $0.17 per watt, in line with recent trends.

我們實現了每瓦 0.17 美元的平台服務毛利率，符合最近的趨勢。

In the fourth quarter, we deployed 115 megawatts.

第四季度，我們部署了 115 兆瓦。

Our cash and third-party loan mix was 16% in Q4, also in line with recent levels.

我們的現金和第三方貸款組合在第四季度為 16%，也與最近的水平一致。

We expect this mix to be in the mid- to high teens in 2019.

我們預計這種組合將在 2019 年達到中高水平。

Turning now to our balance sheet.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。

We ended the year with $304 million in total cash, a $29 million increase from last quarter.

到年底，我們的現金總額為 3.04 億美元，比上一季度增加了 2900 萬美元。

For the full year 2018, we increased our total cash balance by $63 million without increasing our parent level debt, by monetizing the tax attributes of systems we deployed and raising project-level nonrecourse debt, which is solely secured by cash flows from underlying systems.

在 2018 年全年，我們通過將我們部署的系統的稅收屬性貨幣化並籌集項目級無追索權債務，在不增加母公司債務的情況下增加了 6300 萬美元的總現金餘額，這些債務完全由基礎系統的現金流擔保。

We expect cash generation to increase to over $100 million in 2019.

我們預計 2019 年現金產生量將增加到 1 億美元以上。

Quarterly cash generation can fluctuate due to the timing of project finance activities, but this represents our best view based on our plans for the year.

由於項目融資活動的時間安排，季度現金產生可能會有所波動，但這代表了我們根據我們今年的計劃得出的最佳觀點。

We define cash generation as the change in our total cash, less the change in recourse debt.

我們將現金產生定義為總現金的變化減去追索權債務的變化。

Also, please note that our cash generation outlook excludes any strategic opportunities beyond our current plans, along with IPC safe harboring activities, which we may undertake.

另外請注意，我們的現金產生前景不包括我們當前計劃之外的任何戰略機會，以及我們可能進行的 IPC 安全港活動。

You'll note that net income to Sunrun was slightly negative in the quarter but positive for the year.

您會注意到 Sunrun 本季度的淨收入略有負數，但全年為正。

We expect next income will also be positive for the full year 2019.

我們預計 2019 年全年的下一個收入也將是正數。

Moving on to guidance on Slide 10.

繼續幻燈片 10 的指導。

We are issuing full year guidance of 16% to 18% growth in deployments, and increasing unit economics of $1.10 per watt or greater in NPV.

我們發布了部署增長 16% 至 18% 的全年指導，並將 NPV 的單位經濟效益提高到每瓦 1.10 美元或更高。

In the first quarter, we expect deployments to be in the range of 83 to 85 megawatts.

在第一季度，我們預計部署將在 83 至 85 兆瓦之間。

Now let me turn it over to Ed.

現在讓我把它交給埃德。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑勃。

Today, I plan to recap our December asset-backed security issuance and discuss our capital strategy for 2019.

今天，我計劃回顧一下我們 12 月份的資產支持證券發行，並討論我們 2019 年的資本戰略。

I will also review net earning assets and capital runway.

我還將審查淨收益資產和資本跑道。

Over the last decade, strong asset performance has led the cost of capital for residential solar assets to improve steadily.

在過去十年中，強勁的資產表現導致住宅太陽能資產的資本成本穩步提高。

That said, general market turbulence in November and December, when we priced our $322 million ABS transaction bucked the trend a little.

也就是說，11 月和 12 月的一般市場動盪，當時我們為 3.22 億美元的 ABS 交易定價時略微逆勢而上。

Despite the imperfect market conditions, we are pleased to have exceeded our cash guidance for 2018.

儘管市場條件不完善，但我們很高興超過了 2018 年的現金指導。

Although the cost of debt wasn't all that we had hoped, we achieved the lower yield and a substantially higher advance rate than the other residential solar lease securitization in market at the time.

儘管債務成本並非我們所希望的那樣，但我們實現了比當時市場上其他住宅太陽能租賃證券化更低的收益率和更高的預付率。

The print suggests that our capital cost advantage versus competitors is amplified during imperfect market conditions.

該印刷品表明，在不完善的市場條件下，我們相對於競爭對手的資本成本優勢得到了放大。

A first for the industry, our transaction is also fully amortizing and, in about 5 years, callable, thereby, both reducing risk and preserving refinancing upside for the future.

我們的交易在業內尚屬首次，而且還完全攤銷，並在大約 5 年內可贖回，從而既降低了風險，又為未來保留了再融資的上行空間。

The note priced at a yield of 5.55%, but by January, had already traded up in the secondary market to a yield of 5.16%, and market conditions continue to improve.

該票據的收益率為 5.55%，但到 1 月，二級市場的收益率已經上漲至 5.16%，市場狀況繼續改善。

In December, we also closed a subordinated loan against the same asset pool as the ABS transaction.

12 月，我們還關閉了與 ABS 交易相同的資產池的次級貸款。

This loan is similar in nature to the National Grid project equity transaction but structured as nonrecourse debt.

該貸款與國家電網項目股權交易性質相似，但結構為無追索權債務。

The loan is callable after the underlying tax equity funds slip, affording us refinancing upside at that time.

這筆貸款可以在基礎稅收股權基金下滑後被贖回，這為我們提供了再融資的空間。

The total advance through tax equity, the ABS transaction and this subordinated loan implies an advance against 20-year project value in the 95% to 100% range are consistent with our prior comments.

通過稅收股權、ABS 交易和次級貸款的總預付款意味著 20 年項目價值的預付款在 95% 至 100% 範圍內，這與我們之前的評論一致。

Looking forward, we still see the opportunity for higher advance rates and lower capital costs when refinancing seasoned assets.

展望未來，在為成熟資產再融資時，我們仍然看到了提高預付利率和降低資本成本的機會。

We expect to execute such a transaction by midyear.

我們預計在年中之前執行此類交易。

For the full year 2019, we remain confident we can achieve more than $100 million in cash flow.

對於 2019 年全年，我們仍然有信心實現超過 1 億美元的現金流。

We also expect that number can grow in years to come.

我們還預計這個數字會在未來幾年增長。

I note this view of our free cash flow is presented before considering the impact of any inventory prepurchasing we may do to preserve access to the investment tax credit at a 30% rate into 2020 and beyond, given the high expected return on capital associated with such a purchase.

我注意到我們的自由現金流的這種觀點是在考慮我們可能採取的任何庫存預購的影響之前提出的，以便在 2020 年及以後保持 30% 的投資稅收抵免，因為與此相關的高預期資本回報率一項採購。

As the year progresses and our financing plans take firmer shape, we will update our outlook for cash generation accordingly.

隨著時間的推移和我們的融資計劃更加穩固，我們將相應地更新我們對現金產生的展望。

Moving to Slide 11.

移至幻燈片 11。

At quarter-end, net earning assets was $1.4 billion, an increase of $222 million or 19% year-over-year.

截至季度末，淨收益資產為 14 億美元，同比增加 2.22 億美元或 19%。

Cash was $304 million, an increase of $63 million or 26% year-over-year.

現金為 3.04 億美元，同比增加 6300 萬美元或 26%。

Net earning assets is our way to describe the value of the cash flows to Sunrun shareholders after payments to financing counterparties.

淨收益資產是我們描述在向融資對手方付款後流向 Sunrun 股東的現金流量價值的方式。

Turning finally to our pipeline.

最後轉向我們的管道。

Our debt and tax equity capital commitments already provide us runway well into Q3.

我們的債務和稅收股權資本承諾已經為我們進入第三季度提供了良好的跑道。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Lynn.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給林恩。

Thanks, Ed.

謝謝，埃德。

Let's please open the line for questions.

讓我們打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Weinstein with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Michael Weinstein。

One thing I want to ask you about was the Comcast deal, and maybe you can give us an update on how that's going?

我想問你一件事是康卡斯特的交易，也許你可以向我們介紹一下進展情況？

I think you were expecting 6,000 to 8,000 customers this year through that.

我想你預計今年會有 6,000 到 8,000 名客戶。

And I'm wondering if you can compare the cost per customer at Comcast to whatever the mechanics of the deal is -- are with Home Depot?

我想知道你是否可以將 Comcast 的每位客戶成本與交易機制進行比較——與 Home Depot 的交易機制是什麼？

Sure.

當然。

One of the things we're excited about in terms of the guidance and what we think underscores that, our acquisition mix is getting evermore attractive is that we're expanding the margin.

就指導而言，我們感到興奮的一件事以及我們認為強調的一點是，我們的收購組合變得越來越有吸引力，那就是我們正在擴大利潤率。

So we finished this year with $1.08 in NPV, and we're expecting north of $1.10 in '19, and that's despite a pretty heavy ramp in Home Depot.

因此，我們今年的 NPV 為 1.08 美元，我們預計 19 年將超過 1.10 美元，儘管 Home Depot 的增長非常強勁。

You might imagine that you spend early to get their stores up and ramp before you start to realize on some of the benefit there.

您可能會想像，在您開始意識到那裡的一些好處之前，您早早花錢讓他們的商店開業並擴大規模。

So despite that headwind for the beginning part of the year, we're still going to exceed the margin.

因此，儘管今年年初出現逆風，但我們仍將超過利潤率。

So I think we like both channels, we like where the mix is, where the mix is coming out.

所以我認為我們喜歡這兩個頻道，我們喜歡混合的地方，混合的地方。

In terms of Comcast in particular, not a ton of update from the last call.

特別是就康卡斯特而言，上次通話沒有大量更新。

We restructured the deal in order to make it just be more specific and work better for parties in 2019.

我們重組了交易，以使其更具體，並在 2019 年更好地為各方服務。

It's progressing as expected.

它正在按預期進行。

If they end up hitting those numbers, then they will execute into the warrant.

如果他們最終達到了這些數字，那麼他們將執行逮捕令。

And we look at the value of that and include that plus the lead fee and still think it's a competitive acquisition channel for us, and Home Depot as well, just given the comments that I issued earlier around despite the early ramp, we're still going to hit expanding margins for the year.

我們審視了它的價值，包括了它加上先行費，仍然認為這對我們來說是一個有競爭力的收購渠道，Home Depot 也是如此，考慮到我早些時候發表的評論，儘管早期的增長，我們仍然今年將擴大利潤率。

Got it.

知道了。

And when I look at those customer acquisition cost, is that showing up in the sales and marketing line on Slide 14?

當我查看那些客戶獲取成本時，它是否出現在幻燈片 14 的銷售和營銷線上？

Is that where I should see that, just curious?

那是我應該看到的地方嗎，只是好奇？

Let me just make sure that the slide is -- I'm not looking at the slide.

讓我確保幻燈片是-- 我不是在看幻燈片。

Slide 14, yes, correct.

幻燈片 14，是的，正確。

If you're looking at the acquisition costs on the key operating metrics, correct.

如果您正在查看關鍵運營指標的購置成本，請糾正。

So at some point, we'll see the lower customer acquisition costs from these 2 channels start to reduce those sales and marketing costs?

所以在某個時候，我們會看到這兩個渠道的較低客戶獲取成本開始降低這些銷售和營銷成本？

And I think you said also during the call that there was a interplay between that and the installation costs?

我想你在電話中也說過這與安裝成本之間存在相互作用？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes, let me explain that a bit.

是的，讓我解釋一下。

Not -- what will happen is that the retail channels and the Comcast channels are to sell-through our direct business.

不會 - 將會發生的是零售渠道和康卡斯特渠道將通過我們的直接業務進行銷售。

When we shift more to the direct business, you see the sales and marketing costs increase but you see a similar decrease in the installation costs.

當我們更多地轉向直接業務時，您會看到銷售和營銷成本增加，但安裝成本也會出現類似的下降。

The reason is, because through the channel business, we capitalize everything.

原因是因為通過渠道業務，我們把一切都資本化了。

The channel spends money to acquire the customer.

渠道花錢獲取客戶。

And so we're buying the project, it's capitalized and that go -- would go into the installation line.

因此，我們正在購買該項目，它已資本化，並且將進入安裝線。

And so what you'll actually see in that sales and marketing line is a slight increase in the year because of that mix shift to direct, and -- but the overall -- to Bob's point, the overall creation cost set should see a slight decline.

因此，您在銷售和營銷領域實際看到的是今年略有增加，因為混合轉向直接，而且 - 但總體而言 - 鮑勃的觀點，整體創作成本集應該略有增加衰退。

So there's a little bit of -- versus our peers, there's a little bit of noise in that, just given the -- our multichannel model.

所以有一點 - 與我們的同行相比，有一點噪音，只是考慮到 - 我們的多渠道模型。

Thanks for asking that question.

謝謝你問這個問題。

Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Obviously, you've demonstrated some of the value of being able to increase services from existing footprints, but can you talk a little bit about the growth opportunity and the cadence of opening new markets as you go through the balance of 2019?

顯然，您已經展示了能夠從現有足跡中增加服務的一些價值，但是您能否談談在 2019 年餘下時間裡的增長機會和開拓新市場的節奏？

Yes, new markets in terms of geographies, is that what you mean?

是的，就地域而言，新市場是這個意思嗎？

We -- our current plan in hitting those growth targets does not anticipate entering any new markets.

我們——我們目前實現這些增長目標的計劃預計不會進入任何新市場。

It's just growth in our existing markets.

這只是我們現有市場的增長。

The incremental revenue opportunities we're really excited about for the long term are the ability to both sell in the energy service to our customers but then also sell energy services to the utility, and that was the announcement we made with the ISO New England capacity award just this quarter.

從長遠來看，我們真正感到興奮的增量收入機會是既能向我們的客戶出售能源服務，又能向公用事業公司出售能源服務的能力，這就是我們通過 ISO 新英格蘭容量發布的公告僅在本季度頒獎。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

So you're not expecting to enter into any new markets in 2019?

所以您不希望在 2019 年進入任何新市場？

Or you're just not guiding to any growth from those markets?

或者您只是沒有指導這些市場的任何增長？

I just want to clarify that.

我只想澄清一下。

Yes, precisely.

是的，準確地說。

We -- our guidance does not contemplate any new geographic market expansion.

我們 - 我們的指導不考慮任何新的地理市場擴張。

Okay.

好的。

And the just in terms of cost reduction on the nonmodule and nonequipment costs with installations, can you talk a little bit about where you're seeing opportunities to start trimming and optimizing some of those costs as you go through the balance of this year?

就通過安裝降低非模塊和非設備成本而言，你能談談你在今年餘下時間看到的開始削減和優化其中一些成本的機會嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

So first, there's puts and takes in that number.

所以首先，有 puts 和 takes 這個數字。

One that you'll see, we're -- as we discussed in Bob's section, we're going to see a slight decline overall in that number, and that is despite the fact that we're increasing the attachment rate of the Brightbox.

你會看到，我們 - 正如我們在 Bob 的部分中所討論的那樣，我們將看到該數字總體上略有下降，儘管我們正在提高 Brightbox 的附件率.

So the cost of that battery is going into that line.

因此，該電池的成本將進入該生產線。

So where we expect to see the positives are really around operating efficiencies.

因此，我們期望看到積極因素的地方實際上是圍繞運營效率。

We still -- so the battery prices have really not come down much.

我們仍然 - 所以電池價格真的沒有下降太多。

They will, but right now, it's still a pretty immature supply chain.

他們會的，但現在，它仍然是一個相當不成熟的供應鏈。

And so where we're going to see the benefits is really around operating leverage and installation efficiencies.

因此，我們將看到的好處實際上是圍繞運營槓桿和安裝效率。

Our next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Lee。

Maybe first one just on the quarter.

也許是本季度的第一個。

The operating lease revenue was up a healthy mid-teens percentage sequentially.

經營租賃收入環比增長了一個健康的中等百分比。

It's a bit better than we've seen seasonally over the past couple of years.

這比我們過去幾年季節性看到的要好一些。

Just wondering, can you help us figure it out, how much of that's driven by volume growth versus mix?

只是想知道，你能幫我們弄清楚，其中有多少是由銷量增長和混合驅動的？

I'm wondering, I guess, how much of the (technical difficulty) volumes are helping that revenue line item here?

我想知道，我想，有多少（技術難度）數量正在幫助這裡的收入項目？

So if you're including incentives in the lease revenue number, Brian, that number is higher.

因此，如果您在租賃收入數字中包括激勵措施，布賴恩，這個數字會更高。

The ITC revenues recognized in Q4 and Q3 have been higher than they've been in the past.

第四季度和第三季度確認的 ITC 收入高於過去。

So that's a big part of the reason that the lease revenue line has been increasing, and that's just due to the type of fund structure that we have in place.

所以這是租賃收入線一直在增加的很大一部分原因，而這只是由於我們現有的基金結構類型。

So with the financing obligation funds, we get to recognize the ITC revenues and it comes through with lease and incentive revenue.

因此，通過融資義務基金，我們可以確認 ITC 收入，它來自租賃和激勵收入。

So I want to make sure that I know whether you're looking at it including incentives or whether you're looking at the revenue number excluding the incentive component.

所以我想確保我知道你是在看它包括激勵還是在看不包括激勵部分的收入數字。

Yes, just looking at the GAAP reported number, so all-in.

是的，只看 GAAP 報告的數字，所以全押。

So yes, that ITC color is helpful.

所以是的，ITC 顏色很有幫助。

Should we be thinking about that as being highly variable into 2019?

我們是否應該將其視為 2019 年的高度可變因素？

You don't know what you'll actually monetize out of what fund in Q3 and Q4 of next year, so it could be a different dynamic?

你不知道明年第三季度和第四季度你會從什麼基金中實際獲利，所以它可能是一個不同的動態？

Or is this something that is a multiyear dynamic that we'll see extend out for the next couple of years?

或者這是我們將在未來幾年看到的多年動態？

This is Ed.

這是埃德。

I think the -- obviously, as the year progresses, we can add or change our financing strategy.

我認為 - 顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們可以增加或改變我們的融資策略。

So it's difficult to predict fund mix that far in advance.

因此很難提前那麼長時間預測基金組合。

That said, the transaction that was driving the higher ITC revenue in Q3 and Q4 of this year is materially complete, and I would expect the revenue to be between $15 million and $25 million over Q1 and Q2 of next year as that transaction comes to completion.

也就是說，推動今年第三季度和第四季度 ITC 收入增加的交易已經基本完成，我預計隨著該交易的完成，明年第一季度和第二季度的收入將在 1500 萬美元到 2500 萬美元之間.

At which point, I would expect it is most likely that we would return to the more traditional partnership flip structures, which result in increased income at the bottom of the P&L and the net loss attributable to the noncontrolling interest line.

在這一點上，我預計我們很可能會回到更傳統的合夥翻轉結構，這會導致損益表底部的收入增加以及歸因於非控制性利益線的淨虧損。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Yes, that'll help us fine-tune the revenue model for next year.

是的，這將幫助我們微調明年的收入模式。

Maybe just a second question on the battery side of the business, and then I'll pass it on.

也許只是關於業務電池方面的第二個問題，然後我會把它傳遞下去。

Can you talk a little bit about the supply availability and sort of where your position, supply chain wise?

您能否談談供應可用性以及您在供應鏈方面的位置？

I know some of your peers have talked about component shortages and battery supply availability issues.

我知道您的一些同行談到了組件短缺和電池供應可用性問題。

It doesn't sound like you're necessarily too worried about that based on the triple-digit expectation or target you have for '19.

根據你對 19 年的三位數期望或目標，聽起來你不一定太擔心這一點。

But maybe if you could just level set us there in terms of how you're positioned from a supply availability perspective?

但也許如果你能從供應可用性的角度來看你如何定位我們呢？

And then related to that, just the strategy around Brightbox, is this all a new build strategy at the moment?

然後與此相關，只是圍繞 Brightbox 的策略，目前這是一個新的構建策略嗎？

Or are you embracing a retrofit strategy as well against the installed base, just given how many -- the 200,000 homes you now installed that?

或者你是否也在針對已安裝的基礎採用改造策略，只是考慮到你現在安裝了多少 - 200,000 個家庭？

Just trying to get a sense for what the kind of mix is on the battery side of the business.

只是想了解業務電池方面的混合類型。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great questions.

很好的問題。

The -- there are -- we do not anticipate any supply constraint.

我們預計不會有任何供應限制。

So we believe we're well positioned.

所以我們相信我們的定位很好。

A lot of that, again, is another advantage to being the market leader.

再次，其中很多是成為市場領導者的另一個優勢。

We can have good leverage with suppliers.

我們可以對供應商有很好的影響力。

So that's not something we're currently experiencing, and we're also very encouraged by all the innovation.

所以這不是我們目前正在經歷的事情，我們也對所有創新感到非常鼓舞。

You might expect we're in conversations with a number of different manufacturers, and we're optimistic that those innovations and that costs will come through.

您可能認為我們正在與許多不同的製造商進行對話，並且我們樂觀地認為這些創新和成本將會實現。

But again, this plan is anticipating supply that we're confident we have and no real cost improvement in the battery.

但同樣，該計劃預計我們有信心我們擁有的供應並且電池沒有真正的成本改善。

So that's all upside for the future.

所以這對未來來說都是有利的。

In terms of the retrofit versus the new build, it is exclusively new build in that number.

就改造與新建而言，它完全是該數量的新建。

We will offer retrofit.

我們將提供改造。

We have not announced that or launched it yet, and the reason is that it's just much more cost-effective and we've been on a new build, and so that's where we've been focusing.

我們還沒有宣布或推出它，原因是它更具成本效益，而且我們一直在進行新的構建，所以這就是我們一直關注的地方。

But going back for the retrofit opportunity is a real opportunity for us in the future, certainly.

但是，回過頭來尋求改造機會對我們來說無疑是一個真正的機會。

And our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

This is actually Eric on for Julien.

這實際上是 Eric 代替 Julien。

First question, would you be able to talk about the year-on-year direct business growth both for fourth quarter '18 and full year '18, and how you see that going forward?

第一個問題，您能否談談 18 年第四季度和 18 年全年的直接業務同比增長，以及您如何看待未來的發展？

We have not typically broken that out, and the reason that we don't is because it's just not how we manage the business.

我們通常沒有打破它，我們不這樣做的原因是因為這不是我們管理業務的方式。

We manage the business regionally to what is the most cost effective and strategic value chain.

我們在區域範圍內管理業務，以形成最具成本效益和戰略性的價值鏈。

So what we're -- what we can say is that the direct business did grow quickly last year.

所以我們 - 我們可以說的是，直接業務去年確實增長迅速。

We do expect that it will grow quicker -- more quickly than the guidance -- than the baseline guidance.

我們確實希望它比基線指導增長得更快——比指導更快。

But beyond that, we're not going to break it out anymore because it's just not how we manage the business.

但除此之外，我們不會再將其分解，因為這不是我們管理業務的方式。

Understood.

明白了。

And in terms of The Home Depot partnership ramping over 2019, presumably that should have more of a growth contribution into 2020.

就 2019 年 Home Depot 的合作夥伴關係而言，這大概會對 2020 年的增長做出更大的貢獻。

Is that the right way to think about this?

這是思考這個問題的正確方法嗎？

The partnership, I think, certainly, we would expect 2020 would be -- have certainly more volume than 2019.

這種夥伴關係，我認為，當然，我們預計 2020 年的數量肯定會超過 2019 年。

However, we are in the stores.

但是，我們在商店裡。

It will take some time to ramp, but we should see a nice contribution from it in the year as well.

這需要一些時間來提升，但我們也應該在這一年看到它的巨大貢獻。

That'll just be more weighted towards the back half.

這只會更偏重於後半部分。

Got you.

明白了

So we should still be expecting a portion of the guidance -- growth guidance to come from Home Depot in 2019, just more -- okay.

因此，我們仍然應該期待 2019 年 Home Depot 的部分指導 - 增長指導，更多 - 好吧。

And then last question.

然後是最後一個問題。

In terms of the ITC safe harbor, would you view that as upside to the 16% to 18% growth range?

就 ITC 安全港而言，您是否認為這是 16% 至 18% 增長區間的上行空間？

So the -- so this is Ed, hoping to answer the question.

所以，我是 Ed，希望能回答這個問題。

So if we -- safe harbor equipment, that will be to extend the margin into our growth rate in 2020 or 2021.

因此，如果我們 - 安全港設備，那就是將利潤率擴大到我們 2020 年或 2021 年的增長率。

It wouldn't have an effect on the 2019 megawatt growth rate.

它不會對 2019 年的兆瓦增長率產生影響。

The comment, yes, I think I was trying to make in the prepared remarks was just that if we do execute a very large prepurchase of equipment, it could consume some equity capital.

評論，是的，我想我在準備好的評論中試圖做出的只是，如果我們執行非常大的設備預購，它可能會消耗一些股權資本。

And in the cash guidance, we're not contemplating that at the moment.

在現金指導中，我們目前沒有考慮這一點。

Right.

正確的。

So I'm just thinking more so 2020 and beyond.

所以我只是在考慮 2020 年及以後的情況。

If you expect growth in the direct business to sustain from '19 into 2020, still with 16% to 18%, would you see an ITC safe harbor supporting beyond that range of growth in 2020 through 2023 potentially, from a broad perspective?

如果您預計直接業務的增長將從 19 年持續到 2020 年，仍然保持 16% 到 18%，從廣泛的角度來看，您是否會看到 ITC 安全港支持超過 2020 年到 2023 年的增長范圍？

I know you guys, obviously, have not provided guidance for those years.

我知道你們這些年來顯然沒有提供指導。

Yes.

是的。

Certainly, we have strong belief that the long-term growth rate in this market can be 15% to 20% for a decade, and we support that in our investor materials looking bottoms up.

當然，我們堅信這個市場的長期增長率在十年內可以達到 15% 到 20%，我們在自下而上的投資者材料中支持這一點。

And so we definitely, certainly stand by that.

所以我們絕對，當然支持這一點。

Maybe one thing worth pointing out on that for -- is that the safe harbor is a distinct advantage for the solar-as-a-service model as compared to the homeowner model, because only commercial entities are able to take advantage of that safe harbor program.

也許值得指出的一件事是 - 與房主模型相比，安全港是太陽能即服務模型的明顯優勢，因為只有商業實體才能利用該安全港程序。

So we would expect that our competitive position would increase in subsequent years vis-à-vis the long tail of solar providers that are unable to offer that service as well as our -- the size of our balance sheet, which enables us to safe harbor potentially a larger amount than our peers.

因此，我們預計我們的競爭地位將在隨後幾年相對於無法提供該服務的太陽能供應商的長尾以及我們的資產負債表規模增加，這使我們能夠安全避風港可能比我們的同行更大。

Got it.

知道了。

If I could get one last question, sorry for this.

如果我能得到最後一個問題，對此表示抱歉。

In terms of the battery retrofit opportunity, have you -- do you have any view on potential pricing of that thus far?

就電池改造機會而言，您對迄今為止的潛在定價有何看法？

I know you've discussed upfront payments in Florida, but could we potentially see early -- effectively early renewals of contracts?

我知道您已經討論過佛羅里達州的預付款，但我們是否有可能提前看到——有效地提前續簽合同？

So your question was battery retrofit market size and contract renewals, did I get that correctly?

所以你的問題是電池改造市場規模和合同續簽，我沒聽錯嗎？

Can you repeat it?

你能重複一遍嗎？

Right.

正確的。

So with battery retrofit in terms of how you would price the battery retrofit.

因此，對於電池改造，您將如何為電池改造定價。

I know in Florida, you guys charge a portion of it upfront for the new installations.

我知道在佛羅里達州，你們會為新裝置預先收取一部分費用。

I was just wondering if there's any potential opportunity for an effective early renewal of the contract when including the battery, like a 20-year contract on the date you retrofit.

我只是想知道在包括電池在內的情況下是否有任何潛在機會可以有效地提前續簽合同，例如在您改裝之日簽訂的 20 年合同。

We should get you on our product team.

我們應該讓你加入我們的產品團隊。

No, I think that's certainly a great idea.

不，我認為這當然是個好主意。

And one comment I wanted to make that I had neglected to make earlier is on Brian Lee's question on the retrofit.

我想發表的一個評論是關於 Brian Lee 關於改造的問題，但我之前忽略了這一點。

We do believe -- because we're in conversations with suppliers, we do believe that there will be shortly, pretty -- far superior, on a cost perspective, ways to retrofit people's batteries.

我們確實相信——因為我們正在與供應商進行對話，我們確實相信，從成本的角度來看，很快就會有非常優越的方法來改造人們的電池。

So from a customer value standpoint and a customer experience standpoint, we are -- we have been eagerly tracking the technologies to come to market.

因此，從客戶價值的角度和客戶體驗的角度來看，我們 - 我們一直在熱切地跟踪技術進入市場。

In terms of the opportunity to add a battery and extend the contract, I think absolutely.

就添加電池和延長合同的機會而言，我認為絕對可以。

I think that could be something we would -- that we would certainly explore.

我認為這可能是我們會——我們肯定會探索的事情。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time.

我現在不會在隊列中顯示更多問題。

And I would like to turn the call back over to Lynn Jurich, CEO, for any closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給首席執行官 Lynn Jurich，聽取任何結束語。

Well, thank you, everyone.

嗯，謝謝大家。

Thanks for listening, and hope you have a great evening.

感謝您的收聽，希望您度過一個愉快的夜晚。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude your program, and you may all disconnect.

這確實結束了您的程序，您可能會全部斷開連接。

Everyone, have a great day.

大家，祝你有美好的一天。