雷神技術公司 (RTX) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收 250 億美元,年增 12%(有機成長),調整後 EPS 2.26 美元,年增 33%,自由現金流 21 億美元,均展現強勁成長動能
    • 公司再次上調全年指引:營收調升至 970-975 億美元(原 950-960 億),EPS 調升至 7.65-7.75 美元(原 7.10-7.25),自由現金流調升至 90-92 億美元(原 85-87.5 億)
    • Q3 結束後,RTX 創下 3400 億美元歷史新高訂單在手,盤後市場反應正面,Raytheon、Pratt、Collins 各事業群均展現強勁動能
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 國防事業大幅成長,Raytheon 轉換多項彈藥框架協議為長約,帶來近 700 億美元長期需求能見度
      • 商用航太 OE 與售後市場雙位數成長,GTF 引擎訂單與承諾超過 800 台,Collins 與 Pratt 商用售後市場需求強勁
      • 創新與產能投資持續,Q3 研發與資本支出 28 億美元,推動 AI、數位工具、先進產品(如 GTF Advantage、EPACS)
      • 全球防衛預算上升,歐洲、亞太、中東等地區國防需求強勁,國際訂單年增 2.5 倍
    • 風險:
      • 供應鏈瓶頸(如 PCB、電容、火箭馬達等)及 AI 產業搶料,需持續投入與政府協作以確保產能
      • 美國國防預算與立法不確定性,雖有合約保護條款,但仍需關注預算變動對產能投資的影響
      • 航空公司燃油成本上升、航班規劃調整,需密切觀察對商用航太需求的潛在影響
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • RTX 總訂單在手:3400 億美元,年增 36%,季增 18%
    • Raytheon Q3 訂單:523 億美元,book-to-bill 6.54,12 個月 rolling book-to-bill 2.9,Q3 國際訂單 90 億美元
    • Collins Q3 銷售:84 億美元,年增 10%(調整後),有機成長 12%;商用 OE 年增 23%,商用售後年增 9%
    • Pratt & Whitney Q3 銷售:92 億美元,年增 10%;商用 OE 年減 5%,商用售後年增 21%,軍用引擎年增 2%
    • Raytheon Q3 銷售:80 億美元,年增 14%;Q3 產能提升,關鍵彈藥產出年增 90%
    • Collins Q3 調整後營業利潤:18 億美元,年增 5.94 億美元,毛利率提升 560 bps(含 300 bps IEEPA)
    • Pratt Q3 調整後營業利潤:9.68 億美元,年增 2.17 億美元,毛利率 10.5%(含 170 bps IEEPA)
    • Raytheon Q3 調整後營業利潤:11 億美元,年增 2.75 億美元,毛利率提升 190 bps
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收預估上調至 970-975 億美元(原 950-960 億),有機成長 10-11%
    • 全年調整後 EPS 預估上調至 7.65-7.75 美元(原 7.10-7.25)
    • 全年自由現金流預估上調至 90-92 億美元(原 85-87.5 億)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Raytheon 彈藥產能擴張與長約對未來營收與毛利的影響?
      A: Raytheon 關鍵彈藥產能年增 90%,已轉換 700 億美元長約,帶來 7-10 年需求能見度。現正全力執行,強化供應鏈、擴大產能,預期隨產能規模化與效率提升,將帶動 Raytheon 毛利率進一步擴張。
    • Q: 面對大規模產能擴張,現金流與資本支出如何規劃?
      A: UCAs 長約採協同資金模式,前期現金流壓力有限。2027 年粉末金屬賠償將減少,IEEPA 現金回收 Q3 已入帳 3 億美元,Q4 還有 5000 萬。預期 2027 年現金流將進一步提升,營運利潤與毛利率持續擴張,但需留意營運資金需求隨營收成長而增加。
    • Q: 航空公司燃油成本上升,是否影響商用航太需求?
      A: 目前觀察到需求仍具韌性,Q3 商用售後有機成長 16%,GTF PW1100 產出年增 35%。雖然航空公司面臨成本壓力,但退役率低、裝機基數成長、價格與飛行時數等基本面強勁,對中長期商用售後市場持續樂觀。
    • Q: Collins Q3 毛利率高於預期,Q4 是否會回落?未來展望?
      A: Q3 Collins 毛利率表現強勁且乾淨,主要受惠於高 OE 產量、售後成長與成本結構優化。Q4 由於 IEEPA 不再重複、研發與數位投資增加,以及 OE 組合影響,毛利率將略為回落,但結構性降本仍在初期,預期 2027 年後毛利率可持續擴張。
    • Q: 供應鏈瓶頸(如 PCB、火箭馬達)如何因應?
      A: 供應鏈是產能擴張的關鍵挑戰,正與政府合作簡化測試、引進新供應商、確保關鍵零組件與原物料長約。火箭馬達採多元供應商與合作夥伴策略,持續投資以分散風險並強化供應鏈韌性。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the RTX third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Lateef, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

    各位好,歡迎參加 RTX 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Lateef,今天將擔任各位的電話會議接線員。提醒各位,本次會議將錄音以供重播。

  • On the call today are Chris Calio, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Neil Mitchill, Chief Financial Officer; and Nathan Ware, Vice President of Investor Relations.

    今天與會者包括:董事長兼執行長 Chris Calio;財務長 Neil Mitchill;以及投資人關係副總裁 Nathan Ware。

  • This call is being webcast live on the internet, and there is a presentation available for download from RTX’s website at www.rtx.com. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding acquisition accounting adjustments and net non-recurring and/or significant items, often referred to by management as other significant items.

    本次電話會議將透過網路進行即時網路直播,並提供簡報可自 RTX 的網站 www.rtx.com 下載。

  • The company also reminds listeners that the earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided in this call are subject to risks and uncertainties. RTX SEC filings, including its Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

    公司亦提醒聽眾,本次電話會議中所提供的獲利與現金流預期,以及任何其他前瞻性陳述,均受風險與不確定性影響。RTX 向 SEC 提交的文件(包括 8-K、10-Q 與 10-K 表格)載有重要因素之細節,這些因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所預期者出現重大差異。(接線員指示)

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Calio.

    接下來,我將把電話交給 Calio 先生。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝,各位早安。

  • Our continued execution and operational focus enabled us to deliver another very strong quarter of results across RTX. On the top line, adjusted sales were $25 billion, up 12% organically, with double-digit growth across commercial OE, commercial aftermarket, and defense.

    我們持續的執行力與營運聚焦,使我們在 RTX 全公司再度交出非常強勁的一季成績。就營收面而言,調整後銷售額為 250 億美元,有機成長 12%,商用原廠配套(OE)、商用售後市場與國防業務皆呈現雙位數成長。

  • Adjusted EPS of $2.26 was up $0.56 or 33% year over year, including $0.25 from IEEPA cost recovery. And free cash flow was again strong at $2.1 billion. So overall, we're very pleased with the continued momentum in our operational performance across the company in Q3.

    調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為 2.26 美元,年增 0.56 美元或 33%,其中包含 0.25 美元來自 IEEPA 成本回收。自由現金流同樣強勁,達 21 億美元。整體而言,我們對第三季在公司各部門營運表現持續提升的動能感到非常滿意。

  • We also continue to see robust global demand for our products and services and are very well positioned to meet our growing customer needs across commercial aerospace and defense. RTX ended Q3 with another record backlog of $340 billion, up 36% year over year and 18% sequentially.

    我們也持續看到全球對我們產品與服務的強勁需求,並且在商用航太與國防領域,已做好充分準備以滿足客戶日益成長的需求。RTX 在第三季末的積壓訂單再創新高,達 3,400 億美元,年增 36%,季增 18%。

  • On the defense side, we booked nearly $59 billion of awards with a book-to-bill of 4.57, driven by approximately $23 billion for Tomahawk and over $14 billion for AMRAAM as we converted those framework agreements into multi-year production contracts at Raytheon. And earlier this month, we also signed multi-year contracts for SM-6 and SM-3 IB.

    在國防方面,我們取得近 590 億美元的訂單,出貨比(book-to-bill)為 4.57;主要動能來自約 230 億美元的戰斧(Tomahawk)以及超過 140 億美元的 AMRAAM,因為我們在雷神(Raytheon)將這些框架協議轉換為多年期量產合約。此外,本月稍早我們也簽署了 SM-6 與 SM-3 IB 的多年期合約。

  • We're very pleased with our collaboration with the Department of War on these contracts, which reinforce the need for our highly capable and proven systems, and they will be a significant revenue driver for Raytheon over the next decade. Neil will provide some more details in a few minutes.

    我們對於與戰爭部(Department of War)在這些合約上的合作感到非常滿意;這些合約再次強化了市場對我們高性能且經實戰驗證系統的需求,並將在未來十年成為雷神的重要營收驅動力。Neil 將在幾分鐘後提供更多細節。

  • On the commercial side, we received over $22 billion of new orders in the quarter, representing over 60% year over year growth across both OE and aftermarket. Most notably, Pratt announced significant GTF engine orders and commitments, including British Airways’ selection of the GTF to power up to 63 aircraft, adding another new GTF operator to its expanding fleet. So far this year, we've received over 800 GTF orders and commitments and have a backlog of over 8,000 engines.

    在商用方面,本季我們取得超過 220 億美元的新訂單,涵蓋 OE 與售後市場,年增超過 60%。其中最值得一提的是,普惠(Pratt)宣布多筆 GTF 引擎重大訂單與承諾,包括英國航空(British Airways)選擇以 GTF 為最多 63 架飛機提供動力,為其擴大的機隊再新增一位 GTF 新營運商。截至今年目前為止,我們已收到超過 800 具 GTF 訂單與承諾,積壓訂單超過 8,000 具引擎。

  • And commercial orders at Collins were up over 20% year over year, driven by the growing installed base and breadth of its content offerings. So another strong quarter of awards across the company.

    而 Collins 的商用訂單年增超過 20%,主要受惠於裝機基數持續擴大,以及其內容供應範疇的廣度。因此,公司整體再度迎來一個訂單表現強勁的季度。

  • Okay, let me shift to the current operating environment as we look to close out the year. In commercial aerospace, we continue to see positive trends with increasing OE production rates on key platforms, which is growing our installed base. For example, Collins' commercial installed base and Pratt's narrowbody powered fleet have grown mid-single digits year over year.

    接著,讓我談談在年底收官之際的當前營運環境。在商用航太方面,我們持續看到正向趨勢:關鍵平台的 OE 產量提升,進一步擴大我們的裝機基數。例如,Collins 的商用裝機基數以及普惠窄體機動力機隊,年增皆為中個位數。

  • In Q3, commercial aftermarket also remained resilient, with 16% organic growth despite global RPKs declining slightly year over year. Our MRO demand continued to be strong, and engine retirements were in line with our expectations.

    第三季商用售後市場同樣展現韌性;儘管全球 RPK(收入客公里)年比略為下滑,我們仍達成 16% 的有機成長。我們的 MRO(維修、修理與大修)需求持續強勁,引擎退役情況也符合我們的預期。

  • Additionally, we continue to see strength across business aviation, with global business jet departures up year to date. And as a reminder, about 60% of the Pratt Canada fleet has not yet seen a first shop visit.

    此外,我們也持續看到公務航空(business aviation)整體走強,全球商務噴射機起降架次今年以來呈現成長。並提醒各位,普惠加拿大(Pratt Canada)機隊中約 60% 尚未進行首次進廠維修(first shop visit)。

  • On the defense side, we remain exceptionally well positioned to meet growing demand given our proven capabilities, regional partnerships, and ability to produce at scale. In the US, we're encouraged by the broad support for defense spending, including the need to expand munitions depth and integrated air and missile defense capabilities. And our ongoing discussions with the Department of War give us further confidence that our key programs will remain funding priorities.

    在國防方面,憑藉我們經驗證的能力、區域合作夥伴關係,以及規模化生產能力,我們仍處於極佳位置以滿足日益成長的需求。在美國,我們對國防支出獲得廣泛支持感到鼓舞,其中包括擴充彈藥庫存深度以及整合式防空與飛彈防禦能力的需求。我們與戰爭部(Department of War)持續進行的討論,也讓我們更有信心:我們的關鍵專案將持續是資金配置的優先項目。

  • Internationally, demand is also rising, with defense budgets expected to grow across the European, Asia-Pacific, and MENA regions next year, including significant spending by Germany, Poland, and Japan. Across these regions, we have partnerships with local companies and suppliers that help support the production of key systems, including Patriot, GEM-T, Standard Missile, Coyote, and military engines.

    在國際市場方面,需求同樣上升;預期明年歐洲、亞太與中東及北非(MENA)地區的國防預算將成長,其中包括德國、波蘭與日本的顯著支出。在這些地區,我們與當地企業及供應商建立合作關係,以支援關鍵系統的生產,包括 Patriot、GEM-T、Standard Missile、Coyote 以及軍用引擎。

  • In Europe, for example, we have over 130 different suppliers that support our production work in that region. And while the U.S. government is currently operating under a continuing resolution, our record backlog provides clear visibility to our sales expectations in the fourth quarter and throughout next year. So our focus remains squarely on execution.

    以歐洲為例,我們在該地區有超過 130 家不同的供應商支援我們的生產工作。此外,儘管美國政府目前仍在持續決議(continuing resolution)下運作,我們創紀錄的積壓訂單仍為第四季及明年全年的銷售預期提供清晰能見度。因此,我們的重點仍將完全放在執行力上。

  • Overall, based on our performance to date, we're again raising our full year outlook for adjusted sales, EPS, and free cash flow. Neil will take you through the details of the third quarter and our updated outlook in a few minutes. But first, let me provide an update on our strategic priorities on slide 4.

    整體而言,基於目前為止的表現,我們再次上調全年調整後銷售額、EPS 與自由現金流的展望。Neil 將在幾分鐘後帶各位回顧第三季細節與更新後的展望。但在此之前,讓我先在第 4 頁簡報更新我們的策略優先事項。

  • I'll start with operational execution. We continue to leverage our CORE operating system to drive output and productivity across the company. At Pratt, we're making progress across key GTF initiatives. On the GTF fleet management plan, the financial and technical outlook remains on track. PW1100 MRO output was up over 35% year over year in the quarter and is up over 30% year to date.

    我先從營運執行談起。我們持續運用 CORE 營運系統,推動全公司產出與生產力提升。在普惠方面,我們在多項關鍵 GTF 計畫上持續取得進展。就 GTF 機隊管理計畫而言,財務與技術展望仍按計畫推進。本季 PW1100 的 MRO 產出年增超過 35%,今年以來累計亦年增超過 30%。

  • Sequentially, AOGs were relatively stable as this MRO output largely offset the expected engine removals from the seasonally high utilization of the fleet during the summer months. We continue to expect AOG reductions in Q4.

    就季比而言,AOG(停場待修)數量相對穩定,因為上述 MRO 產出在很大程度上抵銷了夏季期間機隊季節性高使用率所帶來的預期拆發(engine removals)。我們仍預期第四季 AOG 將下降。

  • We're also pleased that the first GTF Advantage-powered aircraft was delivered to United Airlines and entered into service earlier this month. As a reminder, the Advantage will double the time on wing performance, and we expect the production ramp to continue next year. We're also progressing certification of the Hot Section Plus upgrade package that will bring 90% to 95% of the Advantage time on wing benefit back to the installed base, and we will start incorporating this package into MRO visits early next year.

    我們也很高興看到首架搭載 GTF Advantage 的飛機已交付聯合航空(United Airlines),並於本月稍早投入營運。提醒各位,Advantage 將使在翼時間(time on wing)表現提升一倍,我們預期明年將持續推進產能爬坡。我們也正推進 Hot Section Plus 升級套件的認證;該套件將把 Advantage 在翼時間效益的 90% 至 95% 帶回至既有裝機基數,並將於明年初開始在 MRO 進廠維修中導入此套件。

  • Shifting to Collins, we're advancing structural cost actions to support further margin expansion. This includes consolidating operations, increasing manufacturing hours at best cost locations, and reducing overhead layers. Enabled by these actions, Collins has delivered double-digit organic sales growth this year while reducing indirect labor headcount.

    轉到 Collins,我們正在推進結構性成本行動,以支持進一步的利潤率擴張。這包括整併營運、在最佳成本地點增加製造工時,以及減少管理與間接費用層級。在這些行動的帶動下,Collins 今年已實現兩位數的有機銷售成長,同時降低了間接人力編制。

  • And at Raytheon, we're increasing munitions output as we improve material flow across the supply chain and drive productivity in our operations. Year to date, output across our critical munitions is up over 90% year over year, with material receipts at Raytheon up double digits over the same period.

    在 Raytheon,我們正透過改善供應鏈的物料流動並提升營運生產力,來提高彈藥產出。年初至今,我們關鍵彈藥的產出年增超過 90%,同期間 Raytheon 的物料收貨量也呈現兩位數成長。

  • Across RTX, we're also deploying AI and digital tools to improve speed and decision-making in our operations. For example, through a recent acquisition, Pratt is integrating AI-powered engine inspection software to accelerate borescope analytics. Already in use on legacy programs, this capability is being implemented across our MRO networks and has reduced overall inspection time by more than 30% where it's been deployed.

    在整個 RTX,我們也在部署 AI 與數位工具,以提升營運速度與決策品質。例如,透過近期的一項收購,Pratt 正在整合 AI 驅動的引擎檢測軟體,以加速內視鏡(borescope)分析。這項能力已在既有專案中使用,並正於我們的 MRO 網路全面導入;在已部署的場域,整體檢測時間已縮短超過 30%。

  • Next is innovation and future growth. In Q3, we invested $2.8 billion in company and customer-funded research and development and CapEx to advance our technology roadmap and expand capacity. On the technology front, we're innovating to meet our customers' evolving needs.

    接下來是創新與未來成長。在第三季,我們投入 28 億美元於公司與客戶出資的研發以及資本支出(CapEx),以推進我們的技術路線圖並擴充產能。在技術面,我們持續創新以滿足客戶不斷演進的需求。

  • We're continuing to develop products with AI and machine learning capabilities. For example, Collins is leveraging AI in certain products to assist air traffic controllers in making faster and smarter decisions. And Raytheon has sensors deployed in the field that are using AI to identify objects and classify threats.

    我們持續開發具備 AI 與機器學習能力的產品。例如,Collins 正在部分產品中運用 AI,協助空中交通管制員做出更快、更聰明的決策。而 Raytheon 在前線部署的感測器也正在使用 AI 來辨識物體並分類威脅。

  • Also in the quarter, Collins completed altitude testing of its next-generation Enhanced Power and Cooling System, known as EPACS. EPACS delivers a significant increase in cooling capacity across critical aircraft systems and is being offered to support technology upgrades on the F-35. It can also be used on other future defense and commercial aircraft platforms.

    同樣在本季,Collins 完成其下一代增強型電力與冷卻系統(Enhanced Power and Cooling System,簡稱 EPACS)的高空測試。EPACS 可大幅提升關鍵航空器系統的冷卻能力,並正提供用於支援 F-35 的技術升級。它也可用於其他未來的國防與商用航空器平台。

  • And Raytheon is progressing its composable weapons strategy to address the evolving needs of our customers. This construct uses proven technologies from across our product portfolio as building blocks to develop new solutions that we can field at a faster scale. For example, we're developing a new effector where we're taking the rocket motor and steering control from one production program and combining it with the seeker from another program to cost-effectively meet a specific mission requirement on an accelerated timeline.

    此外,Raytheon 正在推進其「可組合武器」策略,以因應客戶需求的演變。此一架構以我們產品組合中經驗證的技術作為積木,開發新解決方案,並能以更快的規模速度部署到位。例如,我們正在開發一款新的效應器(effector):將某一量產專案的火箭發動機與轉向控制,與另一專案的導引頭(seeker)結合,以具成本效益的方式,在加速時程內滿足特定任務需求。

  • On the capacity front, we continue to invest to support higher output levels. In the quarter, Raytheon completed a $50 million expansion of its manufacturing facility in Forest, Mississippi. This investment will support production ramps for the Next Generation Jammer program and other radar systems. And in connection with the munitions contracts that I mentioned earlier, we're making incremental investments in our supply chain and operations to ramp capacity and support significantly higher production rates.

    在產能面,我們持續投資以支援更高的產出水準。本季,Raytheon 完成對密西西比州 Forest 製造設施的 5,000 萬美元擴建。此項投資將支援下一代干擾器(Next Generation Jammer)專案及其他雷達系統的產量爬坡。此外,配合我先前提到的彈藥合約,我們也正對供應鏈與營運進行增量投資,以提升產能並支援顯著更高的生產速率。

  • On the commercial side, Collins announced a new partnership with Etihad Engineering to expand MRO services in the Middle East. This agreement will double Collins' footprint for nacelle services in the region and support growing A350 and 787 fleets.

    在商用方面,Collins 宣布與阿提哈德工程(Etihad Engineering)建立新的合作夥伴關係,以擴大中東地區的 MRO 服務。此協議將使 Collins 在該地區的短艙(nacelle)服務據點規模倍增,並支援持續成長的 A350 與 787 機隊。

  • And Pratt announced an expansion of precision parts manufacturing in Poland. This investment will increase capacity of complex component assembly for both commercial and military engines, including the GTF and F135. And so we're pleased to see that our disciplined focus on our strategic priorities is delivering operational improvement and new capabilities for our customers.

    而 Pratt 宣布擴大其在波蘭的精密零件製造。此項投資將提升商用與軍用引擎(包括 GTF 與 F135)的複雜組件裝配產能。因此,我們很高興看到,對策略重點的紀律性聚焦,正為客戶帶來營運改善與新能力。

  • Finally, I want to acknowledge the leadership update we announced last month. As you saw, Shane Eddy has decided to retire from the company after more than 40 years in the aerospace and defense industry. Shane's been a great partner and teammate, and I want to thank him for his leadership at Pratt.

    最後,我想提及我們上個月宣布的領導層更新。如各位所見,Shane Eddy 已決定在航太與國防產業服務超過 40 年後,自公司退休。Shane 一直是很棒的夥伴與隊友,我要感謝他在 Pratt 的領導。

  • We're fortunate to have a very strong bench and are excited that Jill Albertelli is taking over as the President of Pratt & Whitney. Jill is currently the President of Military Engines and brings over three decades of experience across Pratt.

    我們很幸運擁有非常強的接班梯隊,也很期待 Jill Albertelli 接任 Pratt & Whitney 總裁。Jill 目前擔任軍用引擎總裁,並在 Pratt 擁有超過三十年的豐富經驗。

  • Okay. With that, I'll hand it over to Neil to take you through the third quarter results and our updated outlook in more detail. Neil?

    好的。接下來我把時間交給 Neil,請他更詳細帶各位看第三季業績與我們更新後的展望。Neil?

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • All right. Thanks, Chris. I'm on slide 5.

    好。謝謝,Chris。我在第 5 張投影片。

  • In the third quarter, adjusted sales of $25 billion were up 11% year over year on an adjusted basis and 12% organically. This strong top-line organic growth was driven by all three channels, with commercial OE up 10%, commercial aftermarket up 16%, and defense up 10%.

    第三季,調整後銷售額 250 億美元,在調整後口徑下年增 11%,有機成長 12%。這項強勁的有機營收成長由三大通路共同帶動:商用原廠(OE)年增 10%,商用售後市場年增 16%,國防年增 10%。

  • Adjusted segment operating profit of $3.9 billion was up 39% year over year, driven by drop-through and higher sales volume across the company, improved productivity at Raytheon, and IEEPA cost recovery. Segment margins expanded 310 basis points year over year, including the benefit of approximately 160 basis points from IEEPA.

    調整後分部營業利益 39 億美元,年增 39%,主要受惠於落差貢獻(drop-through)與全公司更高的銷售量、Raytheon 生產力改善,以及 IEEPA 成本回收。分部利潤率年增 310 個基點,其中包含 IEEPA 約 160 個基點的貢獻。

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $2.26 was up 33% from the prior year, driven by about $0.43 of operational segment profit growth and approximately $0.25 of IEEPA recovery. This growth more than offset roughly $0.12 of below-the-line items, primarily from an expected higher tax rate and lower pension income. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.89 and included $0.26 of acquisition accounting adjustments and $0.11 of restructuring and all other non-recurring items.

    調整後每股盈餘 2.26 美元,較去年成長 33%,主要由約 0.43 美元的營運分部獲利成長與約 0.25 美元的 IEEPA 回收所帶動。此成長已足以抵銷約 0.12 美元的線下項目影響,主要來自預期較高的稅率與較低的退休金收入。以 GAAP 口徑,持續營運每股盈餘為 1.89 美元,其中包含 0.26 美元的併購會計調整,以及 0.11 美元的重整與其他所有非經常性項目。

  • Free cash flow in the quarter was $2.1 billion and included approximately $165 million of powder metal related compensation and approximately $300 million of IEEPA recovery.

    本季自由現金流為 21 億美元,其中包含約 1.65 億美元與粉末金屬相關的補償,以及約 3 億美元的 IEEPA 回收。

  • As Chris mentioned, we converted four munition framework agreements into undefinitized contracts. Over the next several years, Raytheon will be focused on ramping the supply chain, our operations, and capacity to meet the associated production requirements. As a reminder, these contracts include a funding approach that will essentially preserve upfront free cash flow. We'll be making CapEx and other investments on these contracts over the next two to three years and will recognize revenue as costs are charged to the programs.

    如 Chris 所提到,我們已將四項彈藥框架協議轉換為未確定條款合約(undefinitized contracts)。未來數年,Raytheon 將聚焦於提升供應鏈、我們的營運與產能,以滿足相關的生產需求。提醒一下,這些合約包含一種資金安排方式,基本上可保留前期自由現金流。我們將在未來兩到三年就這些合約進行資本支出與其他投資,並在成本計入各專案時認列營收。

  • Therefore, we expect to see sales and profit contributions over the next several years as we capacitize and then ramp to achieve full rate production over the multi-year terms of each contract. And over time, these contracts have the potential to support margin expansion at Raytheon as we scale production. So overall, we delivered strong financial performance across RTX, and we're pleased with the significant growth in our backlog.

    因此,隨著我們進行產能建置,並在各合約多年期條款內逐步爬坡以達到全速量產,我們預期未來數年將看到銷售與獲利貢獻。隨著產量規模擴大,這些合約也有潛力支持 Raytheon 的利潤率擴張。整體而言,我們在 RTX 各業務交出強勁的財務表現,且對訂單積壓(backlog)的顯著成長感到滿意。

  • Let's turn to slide 6, and I'll take you through our updated outlook for the full year. Given our performance to date, as well as the IEEPA recovery, we are increasing our full year outlook.

    我們來看第 6 張投影片,我將帶各位說明我們更新後的全年展望。基於目前為止的表現,以及 IEEPA 回收,我們正在上調全年展望。

  • On the top line, we're raising our full year adjusted sales outlook by $2 billion on the low end and $1.5 billion on the high end to a new range of $97 billion to $97.5 billion, up from our prior range of $95 billion to $96 billion. The sales increase is driven by continued defense performance, commercial OE strength at Collins, and higher GTF aftermarket volume at Pratt. This translates to full year RTX organic sales growth of between 10% and 11%, up from our prior range of between 8% and 9%.

    在營收方面,我們將全年調整後銷售額展望下緣上調 20 億美元、上緣上調 15 億美元,新的區間為 970 億至 975 億美元,高於先前的 950 億至 960 億美元。營收上調主要由國防業務持續強勁表現、Collins 的商用原廠(OE)需求強勁,以及 Pratt 的 GTF 售後市場量增加所帶動。這相當於 RTX 全年有機銷售成長介於 10% 至 11%,高於先前的 8% 至 9%。

  • By channel, we now expect commercial OE sales to grow high-single digits, which is at the higher end of our prior expectation of mid to high-single digits, driven by the production ramp at Collins. Within commercial aftermarket, we now expect sales to grow low-double digits to low-teens across the company, which is up from our prior expectation of low-double digits, driven by higher GTF aftermarket volume. And for defense sales, we now expect low-double-digit growth, up from our prior range of high-single digits, primarily driven by the performance at Raytheon.

    按通路別來看,我們目前預期商用原廠設備(OE)銷售將以高個位數成長,較先前預期的中至高個位數區間更偏上緣,主要受惠於 Collins 的產能爬坡。在商用售後市場方面,我們目前預期公司整體銷售將以低雙位數至低十位數(low-teens)成長,較先前預期的低雙位數有所上修,主要由更高的 GTF 售後市場量所帶動。至於國防銷售,我們目前預期將呈現低雙位數成長,較先前的高個位數區間上修,主要由雷神(Raytheon)的表現所驅動。

  • On the bottom line, we are increasing our outlook for adjusted earnings per share by $0.55 on the low end and $0.50 on the high end. We now see adjusted EPS of between $7.65 and $7.75 for the full year, up from our prior range of $7.10 to $7.25. At the midpoint of our updated outlook, this increase is primarily driven by approximately $0.28 of performance across the company and approximately $0.25 of IEEPA recovery. We've included the updated outlook for the associated below-the-line items in the appendix of our webcast.

    在獲利端,我們將調整後每股盈餘(adjusted EPS)的展望下緣上調 0.55 美元、上緣上調 0.50 美元。我們目前預期全年調整後 EPS 介於 7.65 至 7.75 美元,較先前的 7.10 至 7.25 美元區間上修。以更新後展望的中點來看,此次上修主要來自公司整體約 0.28 美元的營運表現,以及約 0.25 美元的 IEEPA 回收。我們已在網路直播簡報的附錄中納入相關線下項目(below-the-line items)的最新展望。

  • Finally, we now expect free cash flow to be between $9 billion and $9.2 billion for the full year, up from our prior range of $8.5 billion to $8.75 billion, driven primarily by IEEPA recovery.

    最後,我們目前預期全年自由現金流將介於 90 億至 92 億美元,較先前的 85 億至 87.5 億美元區間上修,主要由 IEEPA 回收所帶動。

  • As we look beyond this year, based on the fundamentals of our company, our record backlog position, and operating momentum, we expect another year of top- and bottom-line growth, improving operational margins, and strong free cash flow generation. And as we do every year, we'll be back on our fourth quarter call in January with our detailed outlook for 2027.

    展望今年之後,基於公司的基本面、創新高的在手訂單(backlog)水位以及營運動能,我們預期將再迎來一年營收與獲利同步成長、營運利潤率改善,以及強勁的自由現金流創造。並且如同每一年一樣,我們將在 1 月的第四季電話會議上,提供 2027 年的詳細展望。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to Nathan to take you through the segments in more detail. Nathan?

    接下來,我把時間交給 Nathan,請他更詳細帶大家看各事業部門。Nathan?

  • Nathan Ware - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Nathan Ware - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Neil.

    謝謝,Neil。

  • Starting with Collins on slide 7. Sales were $8.4 billion in the quarter, up 10% on an adjusted basis and 12% organically, driven by strength across all channels. Excluding divestitures, commercial OE sales were up 23%, driven by higher volume on narrowbody and widebody platforms.

    先從第 7 頁的 Collins 開始。本季銷售額為 84 億美元,按調整後口徑年增 10%,有機成長 12%,主要受惠於各通路全面走強。若排除資產剝離影響,商用 OE 銷售年增 23%,主要由窄體機與廣體機平台的出貨量提升所帶動。

  • Commercial aftermarket sales were up 9%, driven by an 18% increase in mods and upgrades, a 12% increase in provisioning, and a 7% increase in parts and repair. Defense sales were up 7% versus the prior year, driven by higher volume across multiple programs.

    商用售後市場銷售年增 9%,主要由改裝與升級(mods and upgrades)成長 18%、備品配套(provisioning)成長 12%,以及零件與維修(parts and repair)成長 7% 所帶動。國防銷售較去年成長 7%,主要由多個專案的出貨量提升所驅動。

  • Adjusted operating profit of $1.8 billion was up $594 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher commercial volume, commercial mix, and approximately $250 million of IEEPA recovery. In the quarter, Collins expanded margins by 560 basis points year over year, including the benefit of structural cost actions and 300 basis points of IEEPA recovery.

    調整後營業利益為 18 億美元,較去年增加 5.94 億美元,主要受惠於商用量增加帶來的利潤穿透(drop-through)、商用產品組合,以及約 2.5 億美元的 IEEPA 回收。本季 Collins 的利潤率年增 560 個基點,其中包含結構性成本措施的效益,以及 IEEPA 回收貢獻的 300 個基點。

  • Turning to Collins' full-year outlook. Based on year to date commercial OE performance, we now expect sales to grow high-single digits on an adjusted basis versus our prior range of mid to high-single digits. Organically, we now expect low-double-digit growth versus our prior range of high-single digits to low-double digits.

    接著看 Collins 的全年展望。基於年初至今商用 OE 的表現,我們目前預期按調整後口徑銷售將以高個位數成長,較先前的中至高個位數區間上修。以有機口徑來看,我們目前預期將呈現低雙位數成長,較先前的高個位數至低雙位數區間上修。

  • With respect to operating profit, we now expect growth between $925 million and $975 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $550 million and $625 million, driven by the drop-through on increased sales volume, ongoing structural cost reduction initiatives, and approximately $250 million of IEEPA recovery.

    在營業利益方面,我們目前預期相較 2025 年將成長 9.25 億至 9.75 億美元,較先前預期的 5.5 億至 6.25 億美元上修,主要由銷售量增加帶來的利潤穿透(drop-through)、持續推動的結構性成本降低計畫,以及約 2.5 億美元的 IEEPA 回收所帶動。

  • Shifting to Pratt & Whitney on slide 8. Sales of $9.2 billion were up 10% on an adjusted and organic basis, driven by strength in commercial aftermarket. Commercial OE sales were down 5%, driven by large commercial engine mix. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 21%, driven by higher MRO volume, primarily GTF. In military engines, sales were up 2%, driven by higher volume across multiple programs, partially offset by the prior-year benefit from F135 contract award timing.

    接著看第 8 頁的普惠(Pratt & Whitney)。銷售額為 92 億美元,按調整後與有機口徑皆年增 10%,主要由商用售後市場的強勁表現所帶動。商用 OE 銷售年減 5%,主要受大型商用引擎產品組合影響。商用售後市場銷售年增 21%,主要由更高的 MRO(維修、修理與大修)量所帶動,且以 GTF 為主。軍用引擎方面,銷售年增 2%,主要由多個專案出貨量提升所帶動,但部分被去年 F135 合約授予時點帶來的基期利益所抵銷。

  • Adjusted operating profit of $968 million was up $217 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher commercial aftermarket volume and approximately $160 million of IEEPA recovery. This was partially offset by large commercial OE engine mix, commercial aftermarket mix, and higher SG&A expense. In the quarter, Pratt's margins of 10.5% included 170 basis points of IEEPA recovery.

    調整後營業利益為 9.68 億美元,較去年增加 2.17 億美元,主要受惠於商用售後市場量增加帶來的利潤穿透(drop-through),以及約 1.6 億美元的 IEEPA 回收。但部分被大型商用 OE 引擎產品組合、商用售後市場產品組合,以及較高的 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政)費用所抵銷。本季普惠的利潤率為 10.5%,其中包含 IEEPA 回收貢獻的 170 個基點。

  • Turning to Pratt's full year outlook. We continue to expect sales to grow high-single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, most likely toward the top half of this range given the strength in commercial aftermarket.

    接著看普惠的全年展望。我們仍預期按調整後與有機口徑,銷售將以高個位數成長;鑑於商用售後市場的強勁表現,成長更可能落在此區間的上半部。

  • With respect to operating profit, we now expect growth between $475 million and $525 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $275 million and $350 million, driven by the drop-through on increased sales volume and approximately $170 million of IEEPA recovery.

    在營業利益方面,我們目前預期相較 2025 年將成長 4.75 億至 5.25 億美元,較先前預期的 2.75 億至 3.5 億美元上修,主要由銷售量增加帶來的利潤穿透(drop-through),以及約 1.7 億美元的 IEEPA 回收所帶動。

  • Turning to Raytheon on slide 9. Sales of $8 billion in the quarter were up 14% on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven by higher volume on naval programs and land and air defense systems, including Patriot, Standard Missile, and Tomahawk.

    接著看第 9 頁的雷神(Raytheon)。本季銷售額為 80 億美元,按調整後與有機口徑皆年增 14%,主要由海軍專案以及陸空防禦系統(包括 Patriot、Standard Missile 與 Tomahawk)的出貨量提升所帶動。

  • Adjusted operating profit of $1.1 billion was up $275 million versus the prior year, driven by improved productivity, higher volume, and favorable mix, including Patriot programs.

    調整後營業利益為 11 億美元,較去年增加 2.75 億美元,主要由生產力改善、出貨量提升,以及有利的產品組合(包括 Patriot 專案)所帶動。

  • Net productivity improved $104 million year over year and included approximately $85 million of benefits in the quarter associated with an international contract modification and a favorable adjustment related to an offset obligation. In the quarter, Raytheon expanded margins by 190 basis points year over year.

    淨生產力年增 1.04 億美元,其中包含本季約 8,500 萬美元的效益,與一項國際合約修改以及一項與抵銷義務(offset obligation)相關的有利調整有關。本季雷神的利潤率年增 190 個基點。

  • Bookings in the quarter were $52.3 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 6.54 and a backlog of $130 billion. On a rolling 12-month basis, Raytheon's book-to-bill is 2.9. In addition to the munitions contracts that Chris mentioned earlier, other key awards in the quarter included $3.1 billion to provide training systems for the British Army, $3 billion of classified awards, and $1.8 billion for SPY-6 production.

    本季接單額為 523 億美元,使得出貨比(book-to-bill)為 6.54,在手訂單(backlog)為 1,300 億美元。以過去 12 個月滾動基礎計算,雷神的出貨比為 2.9。除 Chris 先前提到的彈藥合約外,本季其他重要得標包括:為英國陸軍提供訓練系統的 31 億美元、30 億美元的機密得標案,以及 18 億美元的 SPY-6 量產合約。

  • Turning to Raytheon's full-year outlook. We now expect sales to grow low-teens on both an adjusted and organic basis. This is up from our prior range of high-single digits to low-double digits due to the strength Neil mentioned. And we now expect operating profit to grow between $800 million and $850 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $575 million and $650 million, driven by the drop-through on increased sales volume, improved productivity, and favorable program mix.

    接著看雷神的全年展望。我們目前預期按調整後與有機口徑,銷售將以低十位數(low-teens)成長。由於 Neil 提到的強勁動能,這較先前高個位數至低雙位數的區間有所上修。此外,我們目前預期營業利益相較 2025 年將成長 8 億至 8.5 億美元,較先前預期的 5.75 億至 6.5 億美元上修,主要由銷售量增加帶來的利潤穿透(drop-through)、生產力改善,以及有利的專案組合所帶動。

  • With that, I'll hand it back over to Chris for some closing remarks.

    接下來,我把時間交回 Chris,請他做一些結語。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thanks, Nathan.

    好的。謝謝你,Nathan。

  • We delivered another strong quarter of results and are confident in our updated full year outlook, reflecting the continued execution across the company. And I want to thank all of our employees for their dedication to our mission.

    我們又交出一個強勁的季度成績,並對更新後的全年展望充滿信心,這反映出公司各方面持續落實執行。我也要感謝所有員工對我們使命的投入與奉獻。

  • RTX is exceptionally well positioned across commercial aerospace and defense with our leading franchises, growing installed base, and record backlog. We remain focused on executing on our commitments, investing in the right technologies and capacity, and leveraging our breadth and scale to drive top- and bottom-line growth this year and beyond.

    RTX 憑藉我們領先的核心業務、持續成長的在役裝機基礎,以及創紀錄的訂單積壓,在商用航太與國防領域都具備極佳的競爭位置。我們仍專注於履行承諾、投資於正確的技術與產能,並運用我們的廣度與規模,在今年及未來推動營收與獲利的成長。

  • With that, let's open it up for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    (接線員指示) Sheila Kahyaoglu,Jefferies。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Sure. Good morning, Chris, Neil, and Nathan. Good morning, guys. So quarter up 14% organically, margins 14% was a standout as well. Obviously, some one-timers in that margin number.

    好的。早安,Chris、Neil 和 Nathan。各位早安。本季有機成長 14%,毛利率 14% 也很突出。顯然,這個毛利率數字中有一些一次性因素。

  • As we think about where you are today and the continuous margin improvement, can you talk about specifically Raytheon and where we are on the missiles and munitions ramp as there are a number of additional UCAs in hand now? And how do you think about the volume and margin opportunity as that begins to feather in '26 and thereafter?

    在我們思考你們目前的位置以及持續的毛利率改善時,能否具體談談 Raytheon,尤其是飛彈與彈藥的產能爬坡進度,因為現在手上已有不少額外的 UCA?以及當這些在 2026 年及之後逐步導入時,你們如何看待量能與毛利率的機會?

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Sheila.

    是的。謝謝你,Sheila。

  • As you noted, we're pretty pleased with Raytheon's organic sales growth here in the quarter and even more so with the execution that underpinned it. Output across our critical munitions was up over 90%, and we're seeing output growth across other critical munitions programs as well. So very happy with the operational performance the team is showing to ramp given the needs that are out there in the market.

    如你所提到的,我們對 Raytheon 本季的有機銷售成長相當滿意,更滿意的是支撐這些成果的執行力。我們在關鍵彈藥的產出提升超過 90%,其他關鍵彈藥專案也同樣看到產出成長。因此,面對市場上的需求,我們非常高興看到團隊在擴產爬坡方面展現的營運表現。

  • With respect to the conversion of the framework agreements to the UCAs, again, a lot of hard work went into that, a lot of collaboration with the Department of War. That's all in about $70 billion in combined value that provides Raytheon almost a decade of demand visibility, obviously critical not only for us but for our supply chain as we seek to take these rates up anywhere from 2 to 4x.

    至於將框架協議轉換為 UCA,再次強調,這背後投入了大量努力,也與戰爭部(Department of War)進行了大量協作。這些合計約 700 億美元的總價值,讓 Raytheon 幾乎擁有近十年的需求能見度,這對我們當然很關鍵,對我們的供應鏈也同樣重要,因為我們希望把產能提升到 2 到 4 倍。

  • And these are binding contracts. They've got robust terms, including price, delivery schedules, and the like. And so now, we've shifted into the execution phase, lining up supply chain, putting up POs for tooling and test equipment, all the things we need to do to make that rate.

    而且這些是具約束力的合約。合約條款很健全,包括價格、交付時程等。因此現在我們已轉入執行階段:對齊供應鏈、下達用於工裝與測試設備的採購訂單(PO),以及達成這些產能所需的一切工作。

  • And we've also been working really closely with the Department on all the actions necessary to accelerate the production, streamlining test requirements, improving producibility where we can, addressing obsolescence, qualifying new suppliers. In 2025 alone, Raytheon added 150 new suppliers. We've got to get that supply base as strong as we possibly can. And so right now, it's about just removing any and all bottlenecks so we can get to these higher rates.

    我們也一直與主管部門密切合作,推動所有必要行動以加速生產,包括精簡測試要求、在可行處提升可製造性、處理零件停產(obsolescence)、認證新供應商。僅在 2025 年,Raytheon 就新增了 150 家新供應商。我們必須讓供應基礎盡可能強健。所以目前就是要移除任何與所有瓶頸,讓我們能達到更高的產能。

  • In terms of how this sort of feathers in, we're going to execute these contracts over the next, say, 7 to 10 years. And as Neil noted upfront, we're going to account for these like other defense programs. Revenue will be on a cost-to-cost basis. And as we scale production and continue to drive the efficiencies, given the volumes here and given the visibility we've given the supply chain, we think these contracts have the potential to support margin expansion at Raytheon above and beyond where they are today.

    就這些如何逐步導入而言,我們將在未來大約 7 到 10 年內執行這些合約。如 Neil 一開始所說,我們會像其他國防專案一樣進行會計處理。營收將採成本對成本(cost-to-cost)基礎認列。隨著我們擴大生產並持續推動效率提升,考量到這裡的量能以及我們提供給供應鏈的能見度,我們認為這些合約有潛力支持 Raytheon 的毛利率擴張,且幅度可望高於目前水準。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Arment, Baird.

    Peter Arment,Baird。

  • Peter Arment - Analyst

    Peter Arment - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Morning, Chris and Neil. Nice results. Probably a question for both of you, but Chris, thinking about supporting all this growth tied to the framework deals and the aero ramp, but how are you thinking about like cash conversion? You had a strong raise for '26. Any puts and takes that we should be thinking about going forward from here just regarding either framework CapEx or advances? Any color here would be helpful. Thanks.

    嗨,謝謝。早安,Chris 和 Neil。成果很不錯。這可能是問你們兩位的問題,但 Chris,考量到要支援與框架協議以及航太爬坡相關的這些成長,你們如何看待現金轉換?你們對 2026 年的指引上調幅度很強。往後從現在開始,就框架相關的資本支出(CapEx)或預收款(advances)而言,有沒有什麼我們應該注意的利多利空因素?若能提供一些說明會很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'll start and certainly ask Neil to pile in as well, Peter.

    好的。我先回答,也請 Neil 一起補充,Peter。

  • Again, if you just look at the fundamentals of this business, they're pretty strong, robust demand, large installed base. So again, we think this supports our business being able to generate that 90% to 100% of free cash flow to adjusted net income. We've been pretty consistent in saying that.

    再次強調,如果你看這個業務的基本面,其實相當強勁:需求穩健、在役裝機基礎龐大。因此,我們認為這支持我們的業務能夠產生相當於調整後淨利的 90% 到 100% 的自由現金流。我們一直以來都很一致地這麼說。

  • And there will be investments associated with the UCAs and the demand that we're seeing, but they incorporate a collaborative funding approach to help with some of the upfront free cash flow. So again, for us right now, it's all about focusing on meeting this demand. We've got a $340 billion backlog. We've got to make sure that we've got the supply chain where it needs to be and the capacity, not only in our own shops, but again, with some of these key suppliers. And so that's where the focus is going to be.

    確實,UCA 以及我們看到的需求會帶來相關投資,但其中包含協作式的資金安排,有助於部分前期自由現金流的壓力。所以就我們目前而言,重點就是專注於滿足這些需求。我們有 3,400 億美元的訂單積壓。我們必須確保供應鏈與產能到位,不僅是我們自有工廠,也包括一些關鍵供應商。因此,這將是我們的重點。

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Chris, maybe I'll add a couple of thoughts on some of the things that we've incurred in '26 and how they might play out as we start to turn the corner and look at '27.

    是的。Chris,我再補充幾點,談談我們在 2026 年已經承擔的一些事項,以及當我們開始轉折、展望 2027 年時可能如何發展。

  • Not going to give a '27 outlook today for free cash flow, but as I sit back and think about the underpinning of the drivers, the first thing is we've obviously been tailing down on the powder metal payments. So expect that to be probably about a $500 million tailwind as we head into 2027.

    今天不會免費提供 2027 年自由現金流的展望,但當我退一步思考其驅動因素的基礎,第一點是我們顯然正在逐步降低粉末金屬(powder metal)付款。因此,預期在邁向 2027 年時,這可能帶來約 5 億美元的順風。

  • You heard us talk this morning about the IEEPA refunds. So we had about $300 million in cash come in in the third quarter. There's another $50 million that will come in in the fourth quarter, and then that will be largely behind us. So that will turn into a bit of a headwind. I'm thinking there's probably about $100 million of pension headwind as well. So all of that sort of nets to about zero.

    你們今天早上也聽到我們談到 IEEPA 退款。所以第三季我們收到約 3 億美元現金流入。第四季還會再收到 5,000 萬美元,之後這部分基本就結束了。因此,這會轉為一些逆風。我也認為退休金方面大概會有約 1 億美元的逆風。所以這些加總起來大致相互抵消,約等於零。

  • So you step back and you think about the underlying drivers of the business, Chris just talked about how the frameworks will play out, largely a cash-neutral event as we head into '27. So then it comes down to segment operating profit growth, which we're expecting to see. We're going to have operational expansion of the margins. So excluding the benefit that we just talked about from IEEPA, we'll still grow our margins. And we're going to keep an eye on the need for probably a little bit higher working capital as we continue to support strong levels of organic sales growth.

    因此你退一步看業務的基本驅動因素,Chris 剛談到框架協議將如何展開,當我們進入 2027 年時,整體大致是一個現金中性的事件。接下來就回到各事業部營業利益成長,我們預期會看到。我們的毛利率將有營運槓桿擴張。因此,排除我們剛提到的 IEEPA 帶來的利益,我們的毛利率仍會成長。同時,隨著我們持續支援強勁的有機銷售成長,我們也會留意營運資金可能需要略為提高。

  • You saw we took our guidance up today, added 2 points of organic growth this year. We've seen some working capital draw. Still seeing increased turns on inventory and working capital, but as we kind of position ourselves for the continued growth and delivering this $340 billion of backlog, I could see a little bit of headwind there. But all in all, expect cash flow to be up next year, really well positioned about 70% of the way to our 2026 goal so far, and still some work to do here in the fourth quarter, but feel good about where we sit today.

    你們看到我們今天上調了指引,今年有機成長再增加了2個百分點。我們確實看到部分營運資金的動用。庫存與營運資金的周轉仍在提升,但當我們為持續成長、並交付這3,400億美元的積壓訂單做布局時,我確實可能會看到一些逆風。但總體而言,預期明年現金流會上升;目前距離我們2026年的目標大約已完成70%,第四季仍有一些工作要做,但對我們目前的位置感到很有信心。

  • Peter Arment - Analyst

    Peter Arment - Analyst

  • Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

    感謝補充說明。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Stallard, Vertical Research.

    Rob Stallard,Vertical Research。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. Good morning. Chris, it's probably one for you. Obviously, the airlines are struggling with the higher cost of fuel at the moment. We've seen some of them pulling down their flight activity plans for the fourth quarter. I was wondering if you're seeing any change in behavior from your airline customers as a result of these challenges they're going through?

    非常感謝。各位早安。Chris,這題可能要請你回答。顯然,航空公司目前正承受燃油成本上升的壓力。我們看到其中一些航空公司下調了第四季的航班活動計畫。我想請教,因應他們正在面臨的這些挑戰,你是否看到航空公司客戶的行為有任何改變?

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Rob.

    是的。謝謝你,Rob。

  • You're right. We're closely engaging with the airlines and doing bottoms-up sort of fleet planning and understanding kind of where their head is in 2027, the impact of the cost headwinds that you just mentioned, looking obviously at the consumer and the consumer health. But what we've seen is what you saw in our numbers here in Q3, which has been resilient demand and a resilient consumer. I mean, we had 16% organic growth in commercial aftermarket in Q3. Our GTF PW1100 output was up significantly 35% year over year, and that demand is going to continue into next year and grow.

    你說得對。我們正與航空公司密切互動,採取自下而上的機隊規劃方式,了解他們對2027年的想法,以及你剛提到的成本逆風所帶來的影響,當然也會觀察消費者與消費者健康狀況。但我們看到的情況,正如你在我們第三季數字中所看到的:需求具韌性、消費者也具韌性。第三季我們商用售後市場有機成長16%。我們的GTF PW1100產出年增顯著、達35%,而這股需求將延續到明年並持續成長。

  • Content has continued to be strong on the V2500. And then as you heard Nathan say upfront, Collins had continued organic growth across all three channels, with mods and upgrades and provisioning both up double digits. And we're also seeing, again, retirements that have been relatively low and in line with our expectations.

    V2500的內容(工作量/需求)也持續強勁。再者,如同你一開始聽Nathan提到的,Collins在三個通路皆持續有機成長,改裝與升級、以及供裝(provisioning)都呈現雙位數成長。我們也再次看到,退役量相對偏低,且符合我們的預期。

  • So as we sit here today, Rob, demand has continued to be resilient. We think it's durable. And again, we're going to watch all the other things that everyone else is watching as we're kind of heading to '27 on jet fuel and the other cost headwinds.

    因此,就我們目前所處的位置來看,Rob,需求仍持續展現韌性。我們認為這是可持續的。同樣地,當我們朝著2027年前進時,對於航空燃油以及其他成本逆風,我們會持續關注所有其他人也在關注的因素。

  • But if you just step back for a minute and just kind of let your mind linger past some of these near-term issues, I mean, there are really strong fundamentals that underpin our aftermarket growth. I mean, there's the auto warranty flight hours, there's pricing, there's a growing installed base. So we feel very good in medium long term about our commercial aftermarket positioning.

    但如果你先退一步想一想,暫時把注意力放在這些短期議題之外,其實有非常強的基本面支撐我們的售後市場成長。包括:保固飛行時數、定價、以及不斷擴大的裝機基礎。因此,對於中長期我們在商用售後市場的布局與定位,我們感到非常有信心。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • That's great. Thanks, Chris.

    很好。謝謝你,Chris。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

    Kristine Liwag,Morgan Stanley。

  • Kristine Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning, everyone. Maybe, Neil, you talked about with the munition contract that you've received, with that $70 billion in multi-year contracts, you're seeing production rates increasing 2 to 4x over time. But these are just from the contracts that have converted into firm orders, but you've also got multiple framework agreements that have yet to convert to orders.

    嗨,各位早安。也許問Neil:你提到你們拿到的彈藥合約,在那700億美元的多年期合約之下,你們看到產能/產量隨時間提高2到4倍。但這些只是已轉為確定訂單(firm orders)的合約;你們另外還有多個尚未轉為訂單的框架協議。

  • When we think about the opportunity set that's ahead, including what you've already got, how should we think about the cadence of revenue in earnings contribution on an annual basis? When does this start to peak? Is this really more of an acceleration in '28 and beyond? Could we see some of this in '27? I know you don't want to give '27 guidance yet, but just help us understand how we should think about the cadence of revenue and growth.

    當我們思考前方的機會集合(包含你們已經拿到的),我們應該如何看待每年營收與獲利貢獻的節奏?這會在什麼時候達到高峰?這是否更像是在2028年及之後加速?我們是否可能在2027年就看到其中一部分?我知道你們還不想提供2027年的指引,但請協助我們理解,應該如何看待營收與成長的節奏。

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Thank you for the question, Kristine. Good morning.

    當然。謝謝你的提問,Kristine。早安。

  • So obviously, there are a few variables here, the most important of which is how the defense budgets play out in the coming months. But nonetheless, we're very confident in the demand and need for these important munitions. So as you pointed out, we got two of the frameworks converted to undefinitized contracts in the third quarter. We had two more that came here in the fourth quarter, so those will be included in our fourth quarter bookings. And we've booked a little bit of revenue on this here in '26, and we certainly do expect some of that to ramp up in '27 as we begin to facilitize.

    所以顯然這裡有幾個變數,其中最重要的是未來幾個月國防預算的走向。但即便如此,我們對這些重要彈藥的需求與必要性仍非常有信心。如你所指出,我們在第三季有兩個框架協議轉為未定價合約(undefinitized contracts)。第四季又有另外兩個在這裡落地,因此會納入我們第四季的接單。而我們在2026年已確認了一些相關營收;隨著我們開始進行設施化/產能建置(facilitize),我們也確實預期其中一部分會在2027年開始加速爬坡。

  • But I think importantly, before I even get further on that, we got this enormous backlog to deliver. And so as I look at Raytheon's 2027 and beyond outlook, it shows very strong top-line growth opportunity in its base backlog, and then you put this on top of it as well. And so won’t get into the specifics, as you pointed out today. But certainly, I see this as starting to ramp over the next two years in earnest and really continuing through 2030 when we get into full-rate production for the suite of munitions that we'll be providing.

    但我認為重要的是,在我進一步談這點之前,我們有龐大的積壓訂單需要交付。因此,當我看Raytheon對2027年及以後的展望時,僅就既有積壓訂單的基礎,就呈現非常強勁的營收成長機會;再把這些合約疊加上去也是如此。因此,如你今天所提到的,我不會深入到具體細節。但我確實認為,這會在未來兩年開始實質爬坡,並一路延續到2030年;屆時我們將進入我們所提供這一系列彈藥的全速率量產(full-rate production)。

  • Kristine Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

    Myles Walton,Wolfe Research。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. Looking at the margin performance of Collins, excluding IEEPA, you're nicely ahead of 18%. The implied 4Q margins come back down to at or below where you were in the first half. I'm curious, you talked about the cost savings initiatives having impacts. How sustainable are those and maybe what should we be thinking --?

    謝謝。各位早安。看Collins的利潤率表現,若排除IEEPA,你們本季明顯高於18%。但隱含的第四季利潤率又回落到與上半年相當或更低。我很好奇,你提到節省成本的措施正在產生影響。這些影響有多可持續?以及我們應該怎麼想——?

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Myles?

    Myles?

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Great. So I was just looking at the margin performance at Collins. Excluding IEEPA, you're nicely above 18% in the quarter. It looks like 4Q margin implied you dropped back to mid-16%. I'm just curious, was there anything special about the quarter, which is interesting because you had very high OE rates? And then maybe make a comment of the opportunity for expansion into '27 that, Neil, I think you alluded to expansion across the business.

    好的。我剛剛是在看Collins的利潤率表現。排除IEEPA後,你們本季明顯高於18%。看起來第四季隱含利潤率會回落到16%中段。我只是好奇,本季是否有任何特殊因素?這點很有意思,因為你們的OE(原廠配套)產量/出貨率非常高。另外也請談談到2027年的擴張機會;Neil,我想你提到過整體業務都有擴張。

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Well, obviously, we're really pleased with where Collins' operational margins were in the third quarter, and there really was nothing I would call out that was particularly unusual about the third quarter. So it's good to see the traction that they're getting. Everything we've been talking about for the last five years, frankly, about higher OE production, getting good absorption, the aftermarket drop-through, the increased content on the installed base is coming to fruition, and we got good defense performance as well at really good margins. So the third quarter was strong and very clean.

    是的。嗯,顯然我們對Collins第三季的營運利潤率表現非常滿意,而且第三季並沒有任何我會特別點名、屬於異常的因素。因此,很高興看到他們取得的進展。坦白說,我們過去五年一直在談的事情——更高的OE產量、帶來良好的吸收效益(absorption)、售後市場的利潤下滲(drop-through)、裝機基礎上的內容提升——都正在開花結果;同時國防業務表現也很好,且利潤率非常不錯。所以第三季表現強勁,而且非常乾淨俐落。

  • As we walk to the fourth quarter, you're right, we see a little bit of pullback on the margins. And what I'll tell you there is there's a couple of things. First, obviously, we won't have the IEEPA refunds repeat for Collins. That's all behind us here in the third quarter. We are investing in that business. It's really important for us to make sure that we're prepared for next-generation technology, and so we'll see a little bit higher research and development in the fourth quarter, as we usually do, but it's ramping a bit.

    隨著我們邁向第四季,你說得沒錯,我們確實看到毛利率有些許回落。我想說的是,這裡有幾個因素。首先,很明顯地,Collins 不會再有 IEEPA 退款的重複挹注。這在第三季就已經全部結束了。我們正在對該業務進行投資。對我們而言,確保已為下一代技術做好準備非常重要,因此第四季我們會看到研發費用略高一些(通常我們第四季本來就會較高),但這次增幅會再加快一點。

  • We're also increasing our digital spend there. That's a key element of the transformation that Collins is going through in terms of their reducing complexity, automating back-office functions, et cetera. So that comes into play here in the fourth quarter. We do see a little bit higher OE volume in the fourth quarter, probably gives us about 40 basis points of margin headwind and a few other timing items. But fundamentally, the Collins margins remain really strong, and we expect the operational margins to continue to expand into '27 and we'll talk more about that obviously in January.

    我們也在增加那邊的數位支出。這是 Collins 正在推動的轉型中的關鍵要素,包含降低複雜度、將後勤辦公功能自動化等等。因此這會在第四季開始發揮影響。我們確實看到第四季 OE(原廠設備)量會稍微高一些,可能帶來約 40 個基點的毛利率逆風,另外還有一些其他的時點因素。但從根本來看,Collins 的毛利率仍然非常強勁,我們預期營運毛利率將持續擴張到 2027 年,我們也會在一月再更詳細說明。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Maybe just, Myles, to hit on one part of your question on sort of the sustainability on the structural cost reduction. I would tell you and Collins will tell you that we're in the relatively early stages of that, and we continue to see some really good progress there.

    Myles,也許就你問題中的一部分,談談結構性成本削減的可持續性。我會說,我們以及 Collins 都會告訴你:我們仍處於相對早期的階段,而且我們持續看到非常不錯的進展。

  • You heard Neil talk about some of those initiatives. It's consolidating operations, increasing cost at best cost locations, really attacking the overhead layers. And you saw sort of the indirect headcount reduction that we referenced in our remarks. So these actions are going to continue to compound over time and provide some nice tailwind to Collins' margins.

    你也聽到 Neil 談到其中一些措施。包括整併營運、把成本配置到最佳成本地點,以及真正去處理管理費用的層級結構。你也看到我們在發言中提到的間接人力縮減。因此,這些行動會隨時間持續累積效果,並為 Collins 的毛利率帶來不錯的順風。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Ron Epstein。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning, guys. Maybe just a quick follow-on here to a couple of questions that were asked. On the UCAs, if they're not definitized, how are you -- hope they will be -- political winds change and all that sort of stuff. How are you guys protected? Can you talk about that a little bit?

    嘿,各位早安。也許就前面幾個問題做個簡短追問。關於 UCA(未定案合約行動),如果它們還沒有定案——希望會定案——政治風向會變等等這類情況。你們如何受到保障?可以稍微談一下嗎?

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Absolutely, Ron.

    可以,Ron,當然。

  • And I won't get into the detailed terms. But what I will say is that we are protected if there are changes in the budgetary environment and changes in volumes. That was a critical part of our discussions. We want to move out quickly and get to these rates. The Department understood that, but was also cognizant of the fact that things could change in this budget environment and that we've got the protections we need to feel good about moving out on these investments.

    我不會深入談具體條款。但我可以說的是,如果預算環境有變化、或數量(採購量)有變化,我們是受到保障的。這是我們討論中的關鍵部分。我們希望能快速推進並達到這些費率。國防部理解這點,但也意識到在這樣的預算環境下事情可能會改變,而我們已具備所需的保障,讓我們能放心推動這些投資。

  • I will say, though, Ron, even with the sort of the budget risk that sort of sits out there, I do believe that our critical munitions will be prioritized no matter how the machinations ultimately shake out between is there going to be a reconciliation, what's in the base. I think these UCAs are a testament to how critical these munitions programs are and that they will continue to be prioritized as we go through the budget process. So again, feel confident that we'll see these go through, but protected on the downside just in case.

    不過我也要說,Ron,即便外界確實存在某種預算風險,我仍相信不論最終在「是否會走和解程序」、以及「基礎預算裡包含什麼」等運作如何定案,我們的關鍵彈藥項目都會被優先處理。我認為這些 UCA 正好證明了這些彈藥計畫有多關鍵,而且在預算流程推進過程中仍會持續被優先排序。所以再說一次,我對它們能順利通過有信心;但若有萬一,我們在下行風險上也有保障。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • And then, if I may, when we were walking around the AUSA, one thing came up pretty much in every meeting we did, nobody can get printed circuit boards. And then, people are having problems getting capacitors and resistors and this and that. So as you think about these ramps and just real fundamental components that are in short supply, some of it largely because of what's going on in the AI buildout, how are you guys thinking about that? Because you got this big sucking sound coming from a whole other side of industrials that's absorbing a lot of parts that you guys would normally use.

    另外,如果我可以再問一個:我們在 AUSA 會場走訪時,幾乎每場會議都提到一件事:沒有人拿得到印刷電路板(PCB)。而且大家在電容、電阻等等零組件的取得上也遇到問題。所以當你們在思考這些產能爬坡,以及那些供應短缺的基礎元件時——其中一部分很大程度是因為 AI 建置擴張——你們怎麼看?因為工業領域的另一端有很大的「吸力」在吸收大量你們平常會用到的零件。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Absolutely, Ron.

    是的,Ron,完全同意。

  • You're hitting on the single biggest enabling factor in getting to these enhanced rates, the 2 to 4x, that I mentioned before. It's absolutely going to take a change in how we do things with our supply chain. You heard me mention upfront some of the things we're doing differently in collaboration with the Department in terms of streamlining test requirements, things that sit, generally speaking, within the Department's purview. How do we be more efficient in how we do testing? How do we look at our requirements and really interrogate them to make sure that everything is absolutely necessary? And then how do we work with them to bring additional suppliers into the defense industrial base?

    你點出了要達到我先前提到的 2 到 4 倍提升後的產能速率,最重要的單一關鍵促成因素。這絕對需要我們改變供應鏈的運作方式。你也聽到我一開始提到,我們與國防部合作、以不同方式推進的一些事情,例如精簡測試要求——一般來說這些屬於國防部的職權範圍。我們要如何在測試上更有效率?我們要如何檢視並嚴格審視需求,確保每一項都絕對必要?接著,我們要如何與他們合作,把更多供應商引入國防工業基礎?

  • I mean, you're right, there are certain pieces that we are competing with other industries. You mentioned the AI buildout. I mean, keep in mind, we're looking for a little bit different things than some of those folks, but working with the government to make sure that the folks that are producing the things that we need are prioritizing us and we're not going to be left behind by virtue of AI buildout or other things.

    你的確說得對,有些零組件我們是在跟其他產業競爭。你提到 AI 建置擴張。不過請記得,我們要的東西跟那些業者在某些方面不太一樣;但我們會與政府合作,確保生產我們所需物料的供應商會優先供應我們,不會因為 AI 建置擴張或其他因素而讓我們被排擠在後。

  • I'll put critical minerals in that same category. These are things that are going to be important for both the commercial and defense, and we've been working those for a long time, and the Department's helped there as well in terms of helping us secure long-term supply to make sure that we've got what we need for '27 and beyond. So I'll just tell you that the supply chain focus is acute, and it is where we're putting a lot of our energy, focus, and investment.

    我也會把關鍵礦物歸在同一類。這些對商用與國防都很重要;我們已經投入很長時間在處理這些議題,而國防部也在協助我們,例如協助我們取得長期供應,以確保我們在 2027 年及以後都有所需的供給。所以我只能說,供應鏈的關注度非常高,這也是我們投入大量精力、專注與投資的地方。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通(JPMorgan)的 Seth Seifman。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, and good morning, everyone. Chris, I wanted to ask, when you think about the NDAA this year and the right-to-repair provisions that are in there, and you guys have a big defense portfolio, not just in Raytheon but also in Pratt and Collins, how do you think about the potential impact of that on the company?

    非常感謝,各位早安。Chris,我想問的是,當你看今年的 NDAA(國防授權法案)以及其中的「維修權」(right-to-repair)條款時,考量你們不只在 Raytheon,在 Pratt 和 Collins 也有很大的國防業務組合,你怎麼看它對公司的潛在影響?

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Seth.

    好的,謝謝你,Seth。

  • I won't speculate too much right now because I know that legislative process is ongoing, and as you noted, the '27 budget isn't final. Again, we want to be supportive of our customers and their sustainment needs, but we're also going to need the kinds of protections around IP and protections around the investments that we've made and to make sure that we can balance those needs and the lifecycle ownership needs of the customer. So again, I think ultimately, we'll get to the right place on this and we'll see how it shakes out.

    我現在不會做太多推測,因為我知道立法程序仍在進行中,而且如你所說,2027 年預算也還沒有定案。再說一次,我們希望能支持客戶及其維持妥善(sustainment)的需求,但我們也需要在智慧財產權(IP)方面的保護,以及對我們已投入與將投入的投資有相應的保障,並確保我們能在這些需求與客戶在全生命週期所有權(lifecycle ownership)方面的需求之間取得平衡。所以我想最終我們會在這件事上走到合適的位置,接下來就看它最後如何落地。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • Okay, very good. Thank you.

    好的,非常好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

    Scott Deuschle,德意志銀行。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. Neil, can you characterize where Pratt & Whitney's free cash flow conversion is today relative to its after-tax earnings and then how you expect that to trend over the next few years? Thank you.

    嗨,早安。Neil,你能否說明一下,Pratt & Whitney 目前的自由現金流轉換率相對於其稅後盈餘處於什麼水準,並且你預期未來幾年這個趨勢會如何演變?謝謝。

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, Scott. Thank you.

    早安,Scott。謝謝。

  • As I look at Pratt, first of all, it's generating substantial cash flow in '26. It has been every year since the trough of COVID. So it's a very productive and cash flow positive entity. Keep in mind, about half of it is commercial engines, a quarter of it is military, a quarter of it is Pratt Canada.

    我看 Pratt,首先,它在 2026 年會產生可觀的現金流。自 COVID 低谷以來,每一年都是如此。所以它是一個生產力很高、且自由現金流為正的事業體。請記住,其中大約一半是商用引擎,四分之一是軍用,四分之一是 Pratt Canada。

  • What's great about, as we look forward, as you all know, we've made substantial investments in expanding our MRO capacity, getting our facilities put together for assembly of GTF engines. We expect that to continue as we continue to increase our volumes. But on the GTF aftermarket, we've been doing a number of overhauls that are pay at shop visit, and those full interval shop visits are coming due here this year and into the next several years, and each of those shop visits brings with it cash payments.

    展望未來,很棒的一點是,如各位所知,我們已大幅投資擴充 MRO 產能,並把用於 GTF 引擎組裝的設施建置到位。隨著我們持續提高產量,我們預期這些投資也會持續。但在 GTF 售後市場方面,我們已進行了多項「到廠即付」的翻修,而這些完整週期的到廠維修將在今年以及未來幾年陸續到期;每一次到廠維修都會帶來現金付款。

  • So Pratt will be a tailwind to RTX's free cash flow over the next three years. I'm not going to put a number on it today, but you've heard the kind of growth rates we've demonstrated over the last two years in the MRO output. We expect strong, call it, low-double-digit increases in shop visits as we go into '27 and beyond. And so with that will come the cash flow that we expect to return the investment on the GTF.

    因此,未來三年 Pratt 將成為 RTX 自由現金流的順風。我今天不會給出具體數字,但各位已聽到我們過去兩年在 MRO 產出所展現的成長率。我們預期,當我們進入 2027 年及之後,到廠維修次數將有強勁的、約低雙位數的增長。因此,隨之而來的現金流,將使我們預期能回收在 GTF 上的投資。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Can you say what percent of GTF shop visits are pay at overhaul?

    你能說一下,GTF 到廠維修中有多少比例是「翻修即付」嗎?

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • So we talked about the contracting landscape before, and about 80% of the contracts for the GTF program are under a long-term contract. And I would say the vast majority of them are at a pay at shop visit contract.

    我們之前談過合約的樣貌;GTF 計畫約 80% 的合約是在長期合約之下。而我會說,其中絕大多數都是採「到廠維修即付」的合約。

  • And so the good news is, as you've looked at the results of RTX and Pratt, a key part of that over the last few years, we have generated substantial free cash flow. And we have, at the same time, made substantial investments in overhauls over the last few years. And so the contract asset has grown at Pratt, but over the next three to five years, we'll start to see that come down and generate tailwinds for the business.

    所以好消息是,從 RTX 與 Pratt 的結果來看,過去幾年其中一個關鍵部分是我們產生了可觀的自由現金流。同時,我們在過去幾年也對翻修能力做了大量投資。因此,Pratt 的合約資產有所成長,但在未來三到五年,我們將開始看到它下降,並為業務帶來順風。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citigroup.

    John Godyn,花旗集團。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping we could just stay on Pratt for a bit and maybe revisit margins. Obviously, modeling Pratt margins has a lot of moving parts. You had the IEEPA. I'm just curious how you guys self-assess performance recently. And when we look out to a world where aftermarket trends stay strong, as you described, AOGs are declining, how should we think about the shape of a margin breakout eventually? Any additional color would be helpful.

    各位好。謝謝讓我提問。我希望我們能在 Pratt 這塊再多停留一下,並且回到毛利率/利潤率的議題。顯然,建模 Pratt 的利潤率有很多變動因素。你們有 IEEPA。我想了解你們如何自我評估近期的表現。另外,當我們展望一個如你們所描述、售後趨勢維持強勁、AOG 正在下降的情境時,我們應該如何看待利潤率最終攤開(breakout)的形狀?任何額外的說明都會很有幫助。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll start, John, and then I'll ask Neil to chime in.

    John,我先回答,然後我會請 Neil 補充。

  • When you think about Pratt and Pratt's margin expansion and performance, it does center around the GTF. You heard us talk earlier today about the MRO performance on the 1100, up 37% year over year. Turnaround time has come down, and that's with heavier shop visits. So really strong performance from an MRO perspective, which will help drive AOGs down here in the fourth quarter.

    當你思考 Pratt 以及 Pratt 的利潤率擴張與表現時,核心確實圍繞著 GTF。你今天稍早也聽到我們談到 1100 的 MRO 表現:年增 37%。周轉時間已經縮短,而且是在到廠維修更重的情況下做到的。所以從 MRO 的角度來看表現非常強勁,這將有助於在第四季把 AOG 降下來。

  • And then it's really shifting to the GTF Advantage and HS+. Those are going to be the two main thrusts behind margin expansion in our large commercial engine business. GTFA is in production today. As you know, we talked about it EIS with United earlier, so we're very pleased about that.

    接著重點會轉向 GTF Advantage 與 HS+。這兩項將是我們大型商用引擎業務利潤率擴張的兩大推力。GTFA 目前已在量產。如你所知,我們先前談到它與聯合航空的 EIS,因此我們對此非常滿意。

  • We're taking a disciplined approach to that production cutover. This configuration will get cut in over a period of several years to manage the risk. There's a large proportion of the bill of material that's common, but there's some that's unique. We want to make sure those are up at the right rates as we cut that in.

    我們對這次量產切換採取嚴謹、審慎的做法。為了管理風險,這個構型會在數年期間逐步導入。物料清單中有很大比例是共用的,但也有一些是獨有的。在導入切換時,我們希望確保那些獨有項目的供應與產能能以正確的節奏拉升到位。

  • And then on Hot Section Plus which, as you know, is effectively the derivative of the GTF Advantage, you get 90% to 95% of the durability benefits in a kit. We're working with Airbus and regulators to finalize certification, and we anticipate it's going to be installed into MRO early next year. And we also expect that cut-in to be more aggressive and faster than the one I just described on the GTF Advantage. So again, it's really going to come down to continuing on the MRO output on GTF and then the cutover on GTF Advantage and then the cutover on HS+ in our GTF shop visits.

    至於 Hot Section Plus(如你所知,它基本上是 GTF Advantage 的衍生版本),你可以透過一套套件獲得 90% 到 95% 的耐久性效益。我們正與 Airbus 與監管機構合作完成認證的定案,並預期明年初會在 MRO 中開始安裝。我們也預期,這項導入切換會比我剛剛描述的 GTF Advantage 更積極、也更快。所以總結來說,關鍵仍在於持續提升 GTF 的 MRO 產出、推進 GTF Advantage 的切換,以及在我們的 GTF 到廠維修中推進 HS+ 的切換。

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Chris, the only thing I would add maybe to just put some numbers around what we're talking about here. We've talked about Pratt being entitled to low to mid-teens margins over the longer term. And when I look at the performance of the business and the mix of installs and spare engines, the growing GTF aftermarket, the continued steady V2500 shop visit outlook that we have for the next several years, all of those things contribute to margin growth year over year through the next five years.

    Chris,我唯一想補充的是,或許用一些數字來框定我們在談的內容。我們談過,從較長期來看,Pratt 應該有能力達到低到中十位數(low- to mid-teens)的利潤率。當我看這項業務的表現,以及裝機與備用引擎的組合、持續成長的 GTF 售後市場、以及我們對未來幾年 V2500 到廠維修展望仍然穩健,這些因素都會在未來五年推動利潤率逐年成長。

  • It's going to be a gradual growth. But importantly, as I just talked about a few minutes ago, it will come with significant cash flow tailwind as well as we convert these shop visits to paying shop visits. So the formula for margin expansion is in place. We've got good traction on the aftermarket, on the pricing, and I think that the team is focused on the right things at Pratt & Whitney to drive that growth over the next several years.

    這會是逐步的成長。但重要的是,正如我幾分鐘前提到的,隨著我們把這些到廠維修轉換為「付費到廠維修」,同時也會帶來顯著的現金流順風。因此,利潤率擴張的公式已經具備。我們在售後市場、在定價上都有不錯的進展;我認為 Pratt & Whitney 的團隊正聚焦在正確的事情上,以推動未來幾年的成長。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot, guys.

    非常感謝,各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Mikus, Melius.

    Scott Mikus,Melius。

  • Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

    Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

  • Chris, the company is generating a lot of free cash flow, and there's some sensitivity around stock buybacks for defense contractors. But earlier this year, we saw Northrop file to have its consent decree related to Orbital ATK acquisition either waived or modified. The administration allows that to go through. Would you look at acquiring a solid rocket motor supplier to help you with the ramp on missiles?

    Chris,公司正在產生大量自由現金流,而市場對國防承包商的庫藏股回購有一些敏感度。但今年稍早,我們看到 Northrop 申請希望其與收購 Orbital ATK 相關的同意判決(consent decree)能被豁免或修改。政府也允許其通過。你們會考慮收購一家固體火箭發動機供應商,以協助你們在飛彈產能爬坡(ramp)上更順利嗎?

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, thanks. Appreciate it, Scott.

    是的,謝謝。謝謝你,Scott。

  • Again, I think when we look at our supply chain, we're looking at all our possible constraints. We see constraints, as I mentioned earlier, in castings and we're investing in our own Asheville facility there. We see constraints in rocket motors, as you noted. I talked earlier about critical minerals. So we're always looking at whether or not we deploy the capital to bring additional sources of supply in in terms of qualifying new suppliers. And we're also always looking at places to deploy capital to bring certain suppliers in-house if we feel like it's a major bottleneck.

    再一次,我認為當我們檢視供應鏈時,我們是在看所有可能的限制因素。如我先前提到的,我們在鑄件方面看到限制,因此我們正在投資我們位於阿什維爾(Asheville)的自有設施。如你所指出的,我們也在火箭馬達方面看到限制。我先前也談到關鍵礦物。因此,我們一直在評估是否要投入資本,透過認證新供應商來引入更多供應來源。同時,如果我們認為某些供應商是重大瓶頸,我們也一直在尋找投入資本、將特定供應商內部化(in-house)的機會。

  • On rocket motors, in particular, I will tell you we're expanding the supply base and entering into partnerships with other solid rocket motor suppliers because I think that's just an area that we're just -- you're never going to have enough suppliers there. I think the demand is going to be incredibly high, and we need to continue to spread that risk across a number of suppliers, which is why you've seen some of our announcements that we've made in terms of our partnerships with other rocket motor suppliers.

    就火箭馬達而言,特別是,我可以告訴你,我們正在擴大供應基礎,並與其他固體火箭馬達供應商建立合作夥伴關係,因為我認為那就是一個——你永遠不會有足夠供應商的領域。我認為需求將會非常高,而我們需要持續把風險分散到多家供應商上,這也是為什麼你會看到我們就與其他火箭馬達供應商合作所做的一些公告。

  • So again, just stepping back, we're always looking at ways to shore up our supply chain. No immediate plans on rocket motors. Again, that's more of a partnership strategy, but always looking for ways to strengthen the base.

    所以再退一步來看,我們一直在尋找強化供應鏈的方法。在火箭馬達方面沒有立即的計畫。同樣地,那更多是一種合作夥伴策略,但我們始終在尋找強化供應基礎的方法。

  • Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

    Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    了解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

    TD Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

  • Gautam Khanna - Analyst

    Gautam Khanna - Analyst

  • Yeah. Good morning, guys. I was wondering if you could characterize Raytheon's foreign backlog given all the orders on the U.S. side this quarter. And then also, if you could talk a little bit about, do the missile framework agreements, because they're for mature programs, do the profit rates on those approximate that of the foreign backlog? Should we view it as a substantial mix tailwind over time? Thank you.

    是的,早安,各位。我想請問,在本季美國端訂單很多的情況下,你們能否描述一下雷神(Raytheon)的海外在手訂單(backlog)狀況?另外,也想請你們談談,飛彈框架協議(framework agreements)因為是成熟專案,它們的利潤率是否大致接近海外在手訂單的利潤率?我們是否應該把它視為隨時間推移的顯著產品組合順風(mix tailwind)?謝謝。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • On the last part of your question, as I said earlier, as we continue to move into the production phase and we start to see the efficiencies come from the higher volumes and from our supply base, we think that these can support margin expansion at Raytheon.

    就你問題的最後一部分,如我先前所說,隨著我們持續進入量產階段,並開始看到更高產量以及供應基礎帶來的效率,我們認為這些因素可以支持雷神的利潤率擴張。

  • On the international side, again, continues to be a very strong portion of the Raytheon backlog. Our international bookings at Raytheon are up 2.5 times year to date on a year over year basis, so that international demand continues to be very, very strong. And again, I know there's been some overhang regarding questions on the budget and the like, but our international customers continue to have really strong demand for our product, whether that be Europe, MENA, Asia-Pac. So the demand internationally continues to be exceptionally robust.

    在國際方面,同樣地,國際業務仍然是雷神在手訂單中非常強勁的一部分。雷神的國際接單(bookings)年初至今較去年同期成長 2.5 倍,因此國際需求仍然非常、非常強勁。而且同樣地,我知道外界對預算等問題一直有些疑慮,但我們的國際客戶對我們產品的需求仍然非常強,不論是歐洲、中東與北非(MENA)、或亞太地區。因此,國際需求仍然極為強勁。

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And just to put a finer point, sorry if I missed it, Chris, 37% of the total backlog is international. It's 52% if you exclude the munitions contracts, Tomahawk, and AMRAAM that we added. So still very substantial. We booked $9 billion worth of international orders at Raytheon during the third quarter, a little overshadowed by the size of Tomahawk and AMRAAM, but still really, really strong bookings and we expect some more here in the fourth quarter. So just a little extra color there.

    再更精確一點,如果我沒聽漏的話,Chris,總在手訂單中有 37% 來自國際。如果排除我們新增的彈藥合約、戰斧(Tomahawk)與 AMRAAM,則國際占比是 52%。所以仍然非常可觀。我們在第三季於雷神取得了 90 億美元的國際訂單,雖然被戰斧與 AMRAAM 的規模稍微掩蓋,但接單仍然非常、非常強勁,我們也預期第四季還會有一些新增。以上補充一些細節。

  • Gautam Khanna - Analyst

    Gautam Khanna - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

    RBC Capital Markets 的 Ken Herbert。

  • Ken Herbert - Analyst

    Ken Herbert - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi. Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. As you look at the strong aftermarket growth in Pratt, you've obviously talked a lot about the GTF strength. How much of that growth was GTF? And can you give us any more update on what you're seeing on PW4000, V2500, and maybe Pratt Canada aftermarket in the quarter?

    是的,你好。早安。謝謝讓我插個問題。談到普惠(Pratt)的售後市場(aftermarket)強勁成長,你們顯然談了很多關於 GTF 的強勢。那成長中有多少來自 GTF?另外,你們能否更新一下本季在 PW4000、V2500,以及可能是普惠加拿大(Pratt Canada)售後市場方面看到的情況?

  • Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neil Mitchill - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Ken.

    好的,謝謝你,Ken。

  • The majority of that growth came from the GTF aftermarket. We're still seeing really solid content on the V2500. So Q3 was lifted a little bit by particularly strong content on the V program, so a little bit of growth there as well. We see that actually slowing down in the fourth quarter just on the mix of the inductions and the engines going through the shop.

    其中大部分成長來自 GTF 的售後市場。我們在 V2500 上仍看到非常扎實的工作量/價值含量(content)。因此第三季也因 V 系列專案特別強勁的 content 而略有拉升,所以那邊也有一些成長。但就進廠(induction)與引擎進入維修線(shop)的組合來看,我們看到第四季會放緩一些。

  • But as I said in the last call, we expected about 800 shop visits for 2026. We are right on track to that rate through the end of the third quarter, and we see no change to that outlook in the fourth quarter. And frankly, I think we see that number of shop visit inductions pretty flat and consistent year over year with, again, increasing content on the V. But as we look at where we are today and the top-line growth at Pratt, a lot of that's being driven off of our GTF program which, over time, will far outweigh the structure decline in the V2500-powered aircraft.

    不過如我在上次電話會議所說,我們預期 2026 年約有 800 次進廠維修(shop visits)。截至第三季末,我們完全符合該速度的進度,且在第四季我們也看不到這個展望有任何變化。坦白說,我認為這個進廠維修的引入量(shop visit inductions)年對年會相當持平且一致,同時 V 的 content 仍會提升。但就我們目前的位置以及普惠的營收成長(top-line growth)而言,其中很大一部分是由我們的 GTF 專案所驅動;隨著時間推移,它將遠遠超過由 V2500 動力機隊結構性下滑所帶來的影響。

  • Ken Herbert - Analyst

    Ken Herbert - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Nathan Ware.

    謝謝。接下來我把電話會議交回給 Nathan Ware。

  • Nathan Ware - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Nathan Ware - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • All right. Thank you, Lateef. That concludes today's call. As always, the Investor Relations team will be available for follow-up questions. Thank you all for joining us, and have a good day.

    好的。謝謝你,Lateef。今天的電話會議到此結束。一如往常,投資人關係團隊將可提供後續問題的回覆。感謝各位參與,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Calio - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

  • Take care, everybody.

    各位保重。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

    今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。