Republic Services Inc (RSG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Republic Services Third Quarter 2023 Investor Conference Call. Republic Services is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RSG. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Aaron Evans. Vice President of Investor Relations.

    下午好,歡迎參加 Republic Services 2023 年第三季投資人電話會議。 Republic Services 在紐約證券交易所上市,代號為 RSG。 (操作員說明)請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想把會議交給亞倫·埃文斯。投資人關係副總裁。

  • Aaron Evans

    Aaron Evans

  • Thank you. I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Jon Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO, are joining me as we discuss our performance.

    謝謝。歡迎大家參加 Republic Services 2023 年第三季電話會議。喬恩‧范德‧阿克 (Jon Vander Ark),我們的執行長;我們的財務長 Brian DelGhiaccio 正在和我一起討論我們的表現。

  • I would like to take a moment to remind everyone that some of the information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The material that we discuss today is time sensitive. If, in the future, you listen to a rebroadcaster reporting in this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is October 26, 2023.

    我想花點時間提醒大家,我們在今天的電話會議中討論的一些資訊包含前瞻性陳述,其中涉及風險和不確定性,可能與實際結果有重大差異。我們向 SEC 提交的文件討論了可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素。我們今天討論的材料具有時間敏感性。如果您將來在本次電話會議中收聽轉播商的報道,您應該對原始電話會議的日期(2023 年 10 月 26 日)保持敏感。

  • Please note that this call is property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the express written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited. I want to point out that our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with a recording of this call, are available on the Republic's website at republicservices.com.

    請注意,本次通話屬於 Republic Services, Inc. 的財產。未經 Republic Services 明確書面同意,嚴禁以任何形式重新分發、轉播或轉播本次通話。我想指出的是,我們向 SEC 提交的文件、我們的收益新聞稿(其中包括 GAAP 調節表和業務活動討論)以及本次電話會議的錄音,均可在 Republic 網站 Republicservices.com 上獲取。

  • I want to remind you that Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the dates, times and presentations are posted on our website. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.

    我想提醒您的是,Republic 的管理團隊定期參加投資者會議。安排活動後,日期、時間和演示會發佈在我們的網站上。有了這個,我想把電話轉給喬恩。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Aaron. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our strong third quarter results reflect our focus on profitably growing the business. We produced revenue growth, both organically and through acquisitions, while generating healthy margin expansion across our business.

    謝謝,亞倫。大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。我們強勁的第三季業績反映了我們對業務獲利成長的關注。我們透過有機方式和收購實現了收入成長,同時在整個業務中實現了健康的利潤成長。

  • During the quarter, we delivered revenue growth of 6%, including 2% from acquisitions, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%, expanded EBITDA margin by 70 basis points, report adjusted earnings per share of $1.54 and produced $1.8 billion of adjusted free cash flow on a year-to-date basis.

    本季度,我們實現了6% 的營收成長,其中2% 來自收購,調整後EBITDA 成長9%,EBITDA 利潤率擴大70 個基點,調整後每股收益為1.54 美元,調整後自由現金流為18 億美元年初至今。

  • We continue to effectively allocate capital by investing in acquisitions to create long-term value. Year-to-date, we have invested $947 million in acquisitions. All transactions were in the recycling and waste space. The M&A environment remains active with opportunities in both the recycling and waste and environmental solutions businesses. We remain confident that we will exceed $1 billion of investment for the year.

    我們持續透過投資收購來有效配置資本,以創造長期價值。今年迄今為止,我們已投資 9.47 億美元用於收購。所有交易都發生在回收和廢棄物領域。併購環境依然活躍,回收、廢棄物和環境解決方案業務領域充滿機會。我們仍然有信心今年的投資將超過 10 億美元。

  • Year-to-date, we returned $671 million to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This includes $201 million of share repurchases completed during the third quarter as our leverage ratio returned to target levels. We continue to make progress, demonstrating the value of our complete set of products and offerings to customers while increasing the profitability of our environmental solutions business.

    年初至今,我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 6.71 億美元。其中包括第三季隨著我們的槓桿率恢復到目標水準而完成的 2.01 億美元的股票回購。我們不斷取得進步,向客戶展示我們整套產品和產品的價值,同時提高我們環境解決方案業務的獲利能力。

  • Pricing realization in the environmental solutions business remains strong, and we continue to drive organic growth through cross-selling. EBITDA margin in the environmental solutions business improved sequentially to 22.7% in the third quarter and expanded 390 basis points over the prior year. The results we are delivering are made possible by executing our strategy supported by our differentiated capabilities.

    環境解決方案業務的定價實現依然強勁,我們持續透過交叉銷售推動有機成長。第三季環境解決方案業務的 EBITDA 利潤率較上季提高至 22.7%,較上年同期擴大 390 個基點。我們所交付的成果是透過執行由我們的差異化能力所支持的策略而實現的。

  • Regarding customer zeal, our efforts to deliver industry-leading service continues to drive sustained customer loyalty and organic growth in the business. Our customer retention rate remained over 94% and we continue to see favorable trends in our Net Promoter Score, supported by our valuable service offerings and quality service delivery.

    關於客戶熱情,我們努力提供業界領先的服務,繼續推動持續的客戶忠誠度和業務的有機成長。我們的客戶保留率保持在 94% 以上,在我們有價值的服務產品和優質服務交付的支持下,我們的淨推薦值繼續呈現良好趨勢。

  • Organic revenue growth remained strong during the quarter, with simultaneous increases in both price and volume. Core price and related revenue was 8.6%, and average yield on related revenue was 7.2%, and organic volume growth and related revenue was 10 basis points.

    本季有機營收成長依然強勁,價格和銷售量同步成長。核心價格和相關收入為 8.6%,相關收入平均收益率為 7.2%,有機銷售成長和相關收入為 10 個基點。

  • Turning to our digital capabilities. The team continues to advance the implementation of digital tools that improve the experience for both customers and employees. The next phase of our digital operations is expected to drive additional productivity savings through route optimization, further improved safety performance, and provide more predictable service delivery to our customers.

    轉向我們的數位能力。該團隊繼續推進數位工具的實施,以改善客戶和員工的體驗。我們數位化營運的下一階段預計將透過路線優化、進一步提高安全性能並為客戶提供更可預測的服務交付來進一步節省生產力。

  • For example, we now have the ability to provide real-time customer notifications regarding expected service time on a given day. We are in the early stages of deploying advanced technology on select recycling collection routes. The platform utilizes cameras to identify contamination in recycling containers. We expect this technology will reduce contamination over time and drive incremental revenue.

    例如,我們現在能夠提供有關特定日期的預期服務時間的即時客戶通知。我們正處於在選定的回收收集路線上部署先進技術的早期階段。該平台利用攝影機來識別回收容器中的污染物。我們預計這項技術將隨著時間的推移減少污染並增加收入。

  • Moving on to sustainability. We believe that our sustainability innovation investments in areas such as plastic circularity and renewable natural gas are a platform for profitable growth. Development of our polymer centers remains on track. Construction of our Las Vegas Polymer Center is substantially complete, and we expect full scale operations to begin in November.

    轉向可持續發展。我們相信,我們在塑膠循環和再生天然氣等領域的可持續創新投資是獲利成長的平台。我們的聚合物中心的開發仍在按計劃進行。我們的拉斯維加斯聚合物中心的建設已基本完成,我們預計將於 11 月開始全面運作。

  • Our Midwest Polymer center will be located in Indianapolis. This center will be co-located with a Blue Polymers production facility with operations expected to begin in late 2024. The renewable natural gas projects being codeveloped with our partners are continuing to advance. Five projects were online by the end of the third quarter, and we expect 8 additional projects to be completed in 2024.

    我們的中西部聚合物中心將位於印第安納波利斯。該中心將與 Blue Polymers 生產設施位於同一地點,預計將於 2024 年底開始運作。與我們的合作夥伴共同開發的可再生天然氣項目正在繼續推進。截至第三季末,已有 5 個專案上線,我們預計另外 8 個專案將在 2024 年完成。

  • We are making progress in our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including our industry-leading commitment to fleet electrification. We expect to have 12 electric vehicles in operation by year-end and more than 60 EVs to be added to our recycling and waste collection fleet in 2024. We now have 6 facilities with commercial EV charging infrastructure with more than 40 additional sites in various stages of development.

    我們在減少溫室氣體排放方面正在取得進展,包括我們對車隊電氣化的行業領先承諾。我們預計到年底將有12 輛電動車投入運營,到2024 年我們的回收和廢物收集車隊將增加60 多輛電動車。我們現在擁有6 個擁有商業電動車充電基礎設施的設施,還有40 多個處於不同階段的額外站點的發展。

  • We continue to be recognized as an employer of choice and are proud to be certified as a Great Place to Work for the seventh consecutive year. Our team members remain highly engaged to ensure that we are delivering high-quality essential services that are valued by our customers. I now turn the call over to Brian, who'll provide more details for the quarter.

    我們繼續被公認為首選雇主,並很自豪連續第七年獲得「最佳工作場所」認證。我們的團隊成員保持高度敬業度,以確保我們提供客戶重視的高品質基本服務。我現在將電話轉給布萊恩,他將提供本季的更多詳細資訊。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jon. Core price on total revenue was 7%. Core price on related revenue was 8.6%, which included open market pricing of 10.4% and restricted pricing of 5.7%. The components of core price on related revenue included small container of 12%, large container of 8.6% and residential of 8%. Average yield on total revenue was 5.8% and average yield on related revenue was 7.2%.

    謝謝,喬恩。核心價格佔總收入的7%。相關收入的核心價格為8.6%,其中公開市場定價為10.4%,限制性定價為5.7%。相關收入核心價格的組成部分包括小型貨櫃佔12%,大型貨櫃佔8.6%,住宅佔8%。總收入平均收益率為5.8%,相關收入平均收益率為7.2%。

  • We continue to price new and existing business ahead of cost inflation to drive margin expansion in the underlying business. Volume on total revenue and related revenue increased 10 basis points. The component of volume on related revenue included an increase in small container of 50 basis points and an increase in landfill of 3.5%. Landfill was primarily driven by an 8.2% increase in special waste revenue. Volume growth was partially offset by a decrease in large container of 1.7% and a decrease in landfill C&D volumes of 6.2%, primarily due to a slowdown in construction-related activity.

    我們繼續在成本上漲之前對新業務和現有業務進行定價,以推動基礎業務的利潤率擴張。總收入和相關收入增加了 10 個基點。相關收入的數量組成部分包括小型貨櫃增加 50 個基點和垃圾掩埋場增加 3.5%。垃圾掩埋場主要受到特殊廢棄物收入成長 8.2% 的推動。體積增長被大型貨櫃減少 1.7% 和垃圾掩埋場拆建和拆建體積減少 6.2% 部分抵消,這主要是由於建築相關活動放緩。

  • Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $112 per ton during the quarter. This compares to $162 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales decreased revenue by 20 basis points during the quarter. We continue to see a steady recovery in fiber markets, and plastics pricing has improved from recent lows. Our current average commodity price is approximately $120 per ton.

    繼續回收。本季商品價格為每噸 112 美元。相比之下,去年為每噸 162 美元。本季回收加工和商品銷售使收入下降 20 個基點。我們繼續看到纖維市場穩步復甦,塑膠價格已從近期低點改善。我們目前的平均商品價格約為每噸 120 美元。

  • Next, turning to our environmental solutions business. Third quarter Environmental Solutions revenue increased $8 million over the prior year. On a same-store basis, Environmental Solutions contributed 40 basis points to internal growth during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the environmental solutions business was 22.7%, an increase of 390 basis points compared to the prior year. Total company adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 70 basis points to 29.9%.

    接下來,轉向我們的環境解決方案業務。第三季環境解決方案營收比前一年增加 800 萬美元。以同店計算,環境解決方案在本季為內部成長貢獻了 40 個基點。環境解決方案業務調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.7%,較上年增長 390 個基點。公司調整後 EBITDA 利潤率總額擴大了 70 個基點,達到 29.9%。

  • Margin performance during the quarter included margin expansion in the underlying business of 100 basis points and a 30 basis point increase from 1 less workday. This was partially offset by a 20 basis point decrease from acquisitions, a 20 basis point decrease from recycled commodity prices and a 20 basis point decrease from net fuel.

    本季的利潤率表現包括基礎業務的利潤率擴大了 100 個基點,以及減少 1 個工作日的情況下增加了 30 個基點。這被收購下降 20 個基點、回收商品價格下降 20 個基點以及淨燃料價格下降 20 個基點部分抵消。

  • Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $1.8 billion. Similar to prior years, we expect to spend a disproportionate amount of our full year capital expenditures and cash taxes during the fourth quarter. Year-to-date net capital expenditures of $935 million represents 56% of our projected full year spend and year-to-date adjusted cash taxes of $152 million represents approximately 60% of our projected full year spend.

    年初至今調整後自由現金流為 18 億美元。與往年類似,我們預計第四季將花費不成比例的全年資本支出和現金稅。年初至今的淨資本支出為 9.35 億美元,占我們預計全年支出的 56%,年初至今調整後的現金稅為 1.52 億美元,約占我們預計全年支出的 60%。

  • Total debt was $12 billion, and total liquidity was $2.3 billion. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.9x. With respect to taxes, our combined tax rate and effects from solar investments resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 21.4% during the third quarter. The relatively lower tax rate included a $20 million favorable tax settlement from previous tax years, which added $0.06 of EPS during the quarter. We now expect an equivalent tax impact of approximately 24.5% for the full year.

    債務總額為 120 億美元,流動資金總額為 23 億美元。本季末我們的槓桿率為 2.9 倍。在稅收方面,我們的綜合稅率和太陽能投資的影響導致第三季的稅收影響達到 21.4%。相對較低的稅率包括先前納稅年度 2,000 萬美元的優惠稅結算,這使得本季每股收益增加了 0.06 美元。我們現在預計全年的同等稅收影響約為 24.5%。

  • As noted in our earnings press release, we upwardly revised our full year adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.46 to $5.49 primarily as a result of the lower tax rate. We remain comfortable achieving the other components of full year financial guidance that we provided in July.

    正如我們在收益新聞稿中所指出的,我們將全年調整後每股收益上調至 5.46 美元至 5.49 美元之間,主要是由於稅率較低。我們仍然對實現 7 月提供的全年財務指導的其他部分感到滿意。

  • I will now turn the call back to Jon. Actually, we're going to open it up for Q&A.

    我現在將把電話轉回給喬恩。實際上,我們將開放它進行問答。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, let me do 1 more section, please. We are proud of the results we delivered during the third quarter. Healthy contribution from our pricing strategy more than offset recycled commodity headwinds and cost inflation, which continues to moderate. Looking forward to 2024, we expect continued outsized growth in the recycling and waste and environmental solutions businesses, supported by pricing ahead of underlying costs, cross-selling our complete set of products and services and capitalizing on value-creating acquisition opportunities.

    是的,請讓我再講 1 部分。我們對第三季所取得的成果感到自豪。我們定價策略的健康貢獻足以抵銷回收商品的不利因素和成本通膨(成本通膨持續放緩)。展望 2024 年,我們預計回收、廢棄物和環境解決方案業務將持續大幅成長,這得益於先於基本成本定價、交叉銷售我們的整套產品和服務以及利用創造價值的收購機會。

  • We also expect financial contribution from the investments made in sustainability innovation, including plastic circularity and renewable natural gas projects. The fundamentals of our business remain strong and supportive of continued growth in revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow along with margin expansion. We plan to provide detailed guidance on our earnings call in February.

    我們也期望對永續創新的投資做出財務貢獻,包括塑膠循環和再生天然氣項目。我們業務的基本面仍然強勁,並支持收入、EBITDA 和自由現金流的持續成長以及利潤率的擴張。我們計劃在二月的財報電話會議上提供詳細的指導。

  • Now with that, operator, I would like to turn it over for questions.

    現在,接線員,我想將其轉交以供提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托尼卡普蘭(Toni Kaplan)。

  • Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

    Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

  • Not looking for guidance in '24, but just maybe, if you could just provide some initial thoughts on pricing, maybe on separated into open market and restricted, how those should hold up.

    不是在尋找 24 年的指導,但只是也許,如果你能提供一些關於定價的初步想法,也許是分成公開市場和受限市場,這些應該如何維持。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We're not providing guidance today, obviously, on 2024. But we expect -- the outlook is positive. So I think about high to -- mid- to high single-digit revenue growth, and we'll grow free cash flow and EBITDA margin faster than that, and that gets to your pricing question, which is pricing will come down nominally as inflation comes down, but we'll still be pricing ahead of our cost inflation, which should lead to that formula where we're going to grow the bottom line a little faster than the top line.

    是的。顯然,我們今天不會提供 2024 年的指導。但我們預計前景是積極的。因此,我認為高到中到高個位數的收入成長,我們的自由現金流和EBITDA 利潤率的成長速度將快於這個速度,這涉及到你的定價問題,即定價名義上會隨著通貨膨脹而下降下降,但我們仍將在成本通膨之前進行定價,這應該會導致我們的利潤增長速度略快於收入成長的公式。

  • Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

    Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst

  • Great. And then just thinking about some of the sort of expense drivers. We've heard from peers and from you as well in prior quarters that the equipment availability has been a little bit better, that retention has been improving. Is there any way to size some of those benefits? Just trying to think about those on a go-forward basis.

    偉大的。然後考慮一些費用驅動因素。我們從同行和您那裡得知,前幾季的設備可用性有所改善,保留率一直在提高。有沒有辦法衡量其中一些好處的大小?只是試著在未來的基礎上思考這些。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • We're certainly -- we talked about cost inflation modulating in the second half, and we're certainly seeing that. So you can see that in some of the cost categories, labor, maintenance, certainly a bright spot. The supply chain there, maybe getting incrementally better, but still, we're not going to get all the trucks we want this year. But I think if you see the improvement in maintenance, that really speaks to the underlying cost of parts inflation. That's certainly improved versus the first half. And we expect those costs to continue to modulate into next year as well.

    我們當然——我們談到了下半年成本通膨的調整,我們當然看到了這一點。所以你可以看到,在一些成本類別中,人工、維護肯定是一個亮點。那裡的供應鏈可能會逐漸改善,但今年我們仍然無法獲得我們想要的所有卡車。但我認為,如果你看到維護方面的改善,那確實說明了零件膨脹的潛在成本。與上半場相比,這確實有所改善。我們預計這些成本也將繼續調整到明年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Bryan Burgmeier with Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Bryan Burgmeier。

  • Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Research Analyst

    Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Research Analyst

  • Jon, Brian, apologies if I missed this, but when I look at the EBITDA and free cash flow bridge that's provided in the press release, it seems like net income kind of steps up consistent with the tax rate changes we've talked about, but it maybe doesn't flow through to cash. Just wondering what I might be missing? Is it maybe a change to an adjusted number? Your cash taxes? Is there changes to working capital? Any detail you could provide would be great.

    喬恩、布萊恩,如果我錯過了這一點,我深表歉意,但是當我查看新聞稿中提供的 EBITDA 和自由現金流橋時,淨利潤的增長似乎與我們討論過的稅率變化一致,但它可能不會轉化為現金。只是想知道我可能會錯過什麼?是否可能對調整後的數字進行更改?你的現金稅?營運資金有變動嗎?您能提供的任何細節都會很棒。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Look, as you mentioned, we raised the full year EPS guidance predominantly due to the relatively lower tax rate. There is a cash component to that as well. That is somewhat offset by relatively higher interest rates than we normally thought, which is flowing through to cash interest, and that's why your adjusted free cash flow remains relatively consistent with what we previously provided.

    是的。正如您所提到的,我們上調了全年每股收益指引,主要是因為稅率相對較低。其中也有現金成分。這在一定程度上被比我們通常認為的相對較高的利率所抵消,利率流向現金利息,這就是為什麼您的調整後自由現金流與我們之前提供的保持相對一致。

  • Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Research Analyst

    Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And last question for me. I'm just wondering if you can maybe try to characterize the M&A market within Environmental Solutions. You've obviously been very busy with acquisitions, but we haven't seen any deals in ES yet. I'm just wondering if M&A is a little bit slower than you developed, or if everything is moving along and maybe it just comes down to timing?

    知道了。還有我的最後一個問題。我只是想知道您是否可以嘗試描述環境解決方案中的併購市場的特徵。顯然你們一直在忙於收購,但我們還沒有看到 ES 的任何交易。我只是想知道併購是否比你發展的速度慢一點,或者一切都在進展,也許只是時間問題?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it really comes down to timing. The pipeline is strong, lots of opportunities, lots of conversations. And we remain incredibly disciplined in terms of our financial strategic lens and our financial lens on that, but we feel certainly optimistic through the remainder of the year and into the first half of next year that there's a number of attractive opportunities in that space.

    是的,這確實取決於時機。管道很強大,有很多機會,很多對話。我們在財務策略和財務方面仍然保持著令人難以置信的紀律,但我們對今年剩餘時間和明年上半年感到樂觀,因為該領域存在許多有吸引力的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James.

    下一個問題來自泰勒布朗和雷蒙德詹姆斯。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - MD

    Patrick Tyler Brown - MD

  • So Brian, I think restricted pricing actually accelerated again to 5.7% here in Q3. Do you think that this is going to prove the high watermark? Or do you think we get maybe 1 more quarter of acceleration and then we kind of hit that second derivative?

    所以布萊恩,我認為限制定價實際上在第三季再次加速至 5.7%。你認為這會證明高水印嗎?或者你認為我們可能會再得到四分之一的加速度,然後我們就會達到二階導數?

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think we're near it, quite honestly, Tyler, here. Again, we talked about the relationship between CPI-based pricing starting to step down, but water sewer trash and garbage trash stepping up. And right now, I think they're somewhat offsetting each other. We think that, to the question earlier about as you look forward, we do think that the restricted base pricing does step down sequentially '24, from '23, but again, it still stays above that longer-term average.

    老實說,我想我們已經接近了,泰勒,就在這裡。我們再次討論了基於 CPI 的定價開始下降,但下水道垃圾和垃圾垃圾上升之間的關係。現在,我認為它們在某種程度上相互抵消了。我們認為,對於先前關於您的展望的問題,我們確實認為受限制的基本定價確實會從 23 年到 24 年連續下降,但它仍然高於長期平均水平。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - MD

    Patrick Tyler Brown - MD

  • Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then, so Jon, I think last quarter, there was some talk about kind of hitting a "ceiling" in certain places, in ES with some of the pricing actions. It said that you were -- you kind of said that you were moving forward on that front. But just curious if you can give us an update there. Is pricing good in ES? Are you starting to see some churn? And just are you seeing any impacts from the economy in that business specifically?

    是的。好的。這很有幫助。然後,喬恩,我認為上個季度,有人談論在 ES 的某些地方觸及“天花板”,並採取了一些定價行動。它說你——你有點說你正在這方面前進。但只是好奇你能否給我們最新消息。 ES 的定價好嗎?您是否開始看到一些流失?您是否看到了經濟對該產業的具體影響?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, pricing remains strong. We certainly remain committed on that. There's sort of -- there's a customer churn on that portfolio. Some of that's permanent work, some of that is event work, and we're trading off some low-margin work, and we're adding, to that, a very attractive cross-sell work. And so lots of really attractive growth opportunities in that space, but we're never going to do work for free, and we're always going to start out with price on that.

    是的。不,定價仍然強勁。我們當然仍然致力於這一點。該產品組合存在某種客戶流失現象。其中一些是永久性工作,一些是活動工作,我們正在放棄一些低利潤的工作,並且我們正在添加一項非常有吸引力的交叉銷售工作。該領域有很多真正有吸引力的成長機會,但我們永遠不會免費工作,而且我們總是從價格開始。

  • The macro environment in manufacturing and ES broadly is a bit mixed. So the upstream oil and gas has been slower. Hopefully, a couple of big deals announced here that, that will ignite some increased activity there in Q4 and into next year. Automotive, obviously, has been a little bit challenged here with the labor activity, but then other parts of the petrochemical complex have been very, very strong. And overall, we're happy with the results and still feel very positive going into '24 in terms of the demand environment.

    製造業和 ES 的宏觀環境整體來說有點複雜。因此上游油氣的發展速度較慢。希望這裡宣布的幾項重大交易將激發第四季度和明年的一些活動增加。顯然,汽車業在這裡受到了勞動力活動的一些挑戰,但石化聯合體的其他部分卻非常非常強勁。總的來說,我們對結果感到滿意,並且在進入 24 世紀的需求環境方面仍然感到非常積極。

  • Patrick Tyler Brown - MD

    Patrick Tyler Brown - MD

  • Yes. Okay. And just my last one here, a couple of housekeeping items. But based on what we know today, what is the expected M&A rollover benefit next year? And then based on what we know today with the RNG and the polymers, what is the incremental benefit to '24 EBITDA from those?

    是的。好的。這只是我在這裡的最後一件,一些家務用品。但根據我們今天所知,明年的預期併購展期收益是多少?然後,根據我們今天對 RNG 和聚合物的了解,這些對 '24 EBITDA 的增量效益是什麼?

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So first on the rollover, based on transactions that have closed to date, that'd be about 50 basis points of rollover into '24. And then just on polymer centers and the renewable natural gas, you can think of polymer centers' kind of the $12 million or so incremental contribution next year from an EBITDA perspective and things circa $15 million to $20 million on the RNG portfolio. That's EBITDA.

    是的。因此,首先在展期方面,根據迄今為止已結束的交易,到 24 年將有大約 50 個基點的展期。然後,就聚合物中心和再生天然氣而言,從 EBITDA 角度來看,明年聚合物中心的增量貢獻約為 1,200 萬美元左右,而 RNG 投資組合的貢獻約為 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元。這就是息稅折舊攤提前利潤。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

    下一個問題來自諾亞·凱和奧本海默。

  • Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • So if the prints are right, then the economy grew 4.9% real GDP annualized for the third quarter, and it's really the consumer leading that. Can you talk about your view of the broader macro right now? And specifically, and I know you're not guiding for '24, what kind of a volume environment we are in on an underlying basis? Are we still in a positive volume growth environment from your view?

    因此,如果數據正確,那麼第三季經濟實際 GDP 年化成長率為 4.9%,而這實際上是消費者主導的。現在您能談談您對更廣泛的宏觀經濟的看法嗎?具體來說,我知道您不會為 '24 提供指導,我們在根本上處於什麼樣的數量環境?您認為我們仍處於銷售量正面成長的環境中嗎?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Listen, there's tons of uncertainty in the economy. You can look back 18 months. And then even if you look forward, do you think about 2 wars going on and lots of different dynamics, election coming up next year. The underlying -- but I think we're closer to a soft landing than we certainly were a quarter ago, if you look at the outlook, and we're planning on a positive year next year, and you heard that in our numbers and forecasts with a lot of humility baked into that in terms of things could change and there's uncertainty and we'll adjust according to that.

    是的。聽著,經濟中有很多不確定性。你可以回顧18個月。然後,即使你展望未來,你是否會想到正在發生的兩場戰爭和許多不同的動態以及明年即將舉行的選舉。根本原因 - 但我認為,如果你看看前景,我們比一個季度前更接近軟著陸,我們計劃明年實現積極的一年,你從我們的數據和數據中聽到了這一點我們非常謙虛地做出了預測,事情可能會發生變化,並且存在不確定性,我們將據此進行調整。

  • The recycling and solid waste business, the underlying volume growth in that business is kind of 50 to 100 bps. We're on the lower end of that with where construction's at. That's certainly been a soft spot. And we saw that with residential and commercial starts even last year and then earlier into this year slowing down. And we're hoping that starts to anniversary and rebound here. So I'd say positive environment. We're not firing on every cylinder, but we're cautiously optimistic that we're going to grow out of this thing coming into next year.

    回收和固體廢棄物業務,該業務的潛在銷售增長約為 50 至 100 個基點。我們處於建築業的低端。這當然是個軟肋。我們看到住宅和商業開工量甚至在去年和今年早些時候都在放緩。我們希望週年紀念日開始並在此反彈。所以我想說的是正面的環境。我們不會全力以赴,但我們謹慎樂觀地認為,我們將在明年擺脫這種情況。

  • Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • Very helpful. Given the progress that you and the industry have made in reducing some of the volatility around recycling commodities and the impact of the business. Just curious to know how to think about whether as it relates to the polymer center or any of the vertical integration efforts you have, what the level of exposure is to commodities in that business?.

    很有幫助。鑑於您和行業在減少回收商品的一些波動性和業務影響方面所取得的進展。只是想知道如何考慮是否與聚合物中心或您擁有的任何垂直整合工作相關,該業務中商品的暴露水平是多少?

  • In other words, is this largely a processing and fee-based model for you? And is there any increased sensitivity to be expected from that?

    換句話說,這對您來說很大程度上是基於處理和收費的模式嗎?是否會因此而增加敏感度?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • No. The model is constructed. We're really making money on the spread and so that's one thing that we -- when we did this investment, we were very sensitive to that we're not adding to the volatility of the overall profile. So could there be spots on the margin, of course. But in general, this isn't something where we're increasing our exposure.

    不。模型已建置。我們確實在利差上賺錢,所以這是一件事——當我們進行這項投資時,我們非常敏感,我們不會增加整體狀況的波動性。當然,邊緣可能會有斑點。但總的來說,這並不是我們增加曝光度的事情。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, because you have that underlying commodity risk, as you get the value of the upside, [technically], you capture that spread. You have the same amount of volatility in dollars with incremental revenue, so as a percentage, your volatility actually goes down.

    是的,因為你有潛在的商品風險,當你獲得上漲的價值時,[技術上],你就捕獲了這種價差。美元的波動性與增量收入相同,因此從百分比來看,你的波動性實際上下降了。

  • Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • Right. Right. So it's really an infrastructure and spread play.

    正確的。正確的。所以這其實是一種基礎設施和傳播遊戲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Michael Hoffman with Stifel.

    下一個問題來自 Michael Hoffman 和 Stifel。

  • Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

    Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

  • On the ES side, US Ecology used to have a decent exposure to the auto industry given its Michigan density. So how are we sort of weathering what's going on with the strikes in that business?

    在 ES 方面,考慮到密西根州的密度,US Ecology 曾經在汽車行業有相當多的投資。那麼,我們該如何應對該產業的罷工呢?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Reasonably well. There's been some slowdown in activity in certain spots. But as you can kind of read from the headlines, right, it's been walkouts on certain facilities to the point where if it was a mass shutdown, right, we'd have a much deeper impact, because it would be all the automotive plants that we serve directly. but then it goes straight into the Tier 1, Tier 2 and even Tier 3 supply base.

    相當不錯。某些地方的活動有所放緩。但正如你可以從頭條新聞中讀到的那樣,某些設施已經罷工,如果是大規模關閉,我們將會產生更深遠的影響,因為所有汽車工廠都會受到影響。我們直接服務。但隨後它會直接進入一級、二級甚至三級供應基地。

  • It's been such the case. I mean, we're a very, very small portion of the overall cost structure. So you're not seeing people going to get down to canceling service or even reducing service intervals outside of a few facilities that have been directly impacted.

    事情本來就是這樣的。我的意思是,我們只佔整個成本結構中非常非常小的部分。因此,除了少數受到直接影響的設施之外,您不會看到人們會取消服務,甚至縮短服務間隔。

  • Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

    Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

  • And then, Del, on the RNG accounting, since you're doing mostly partnerships, is this going to be an add back into the EBITDA? Or how are you going to account for this as we see printed financial statements?

    然後,Del,關於 RNG 會計,由於你們主要從事合作夥伴關係,這是否會重新計入 EBITDA?或者當我們看到印刷的財務報表時,您將如何解釋這一點?

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. As we do the reconciliation, Michael, moving from net income to the definition of EBITDA, we will include our pickup in those joint ventures. Remember that this first round of facilities that are coming online, most of those are going to be predominantly royalty, so you're not going to see a lot of that in '24. That'll start being '25 and beyond, that you'll really start to see the accounting that includes the pickup in those JVs.

    是的。當我們進行對帳時,邁克爾,從淨利潤轉向 EBITDA 的定義,我們將把我們的皮卡納入這些合資企業中。請記住,第一輪即將上線的設施,其中大部分將主要是皇室成員,所以你在 24 年不會看到很多這樣的設施。從 25 年及以後開始,您將真正開始看到包括這些合資企業中的皮卡在內的會計。

  • Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

    Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

  • Okay. Right. That's what I needed. And just one last. You had a great margin expansion and yet you're reaffirming the guidance. It seems like you're then expecting a lot more seasonality in 4Q given the strength of the margins or we're at least at the very top end of the range. That's sort of where I -- in the…

    好的。正確的。這就是我所需要的。最後一點。您的利潤率大幅成長,但您仍重申了這項指引。考慮到利潤率的強勁,您似乎預計第四季度會有更多的季節性,或者我們至少處於該範圍的最高端。這就是我──在…

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • I'd say we have a positive outlook. Yes, we're already in Q4, obviously, and we've got a positive outlook for that. But given that there is some seasonality to the business, where you do get some weather to start to impact the business this time of year. Given there are some moving pieces in the broader economy, we thought it would be prudent to reaffirm and we'll give you the results here in February on how we finish.

    我想說我們有積極的前景。是的,顯然我們已經進入第四季度,並且我們對此抱有積極的前景。但考慮到業務存在一定的季節性,每年的這個時候,天氣確實會開始影響業務。鑑於更廣泛的經濟中存在一些變化,我們認為重申這一點是謹慎的做法,我們將在二月向您提供有關我們如何完成的結果。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • But to that point, Michael, if you remember, even when we began the year, we said the cadence of margin expansion was going to actually start negative, which we saw in the first quarter. And sequentially, year-over-year margin expansion was going to improve every quarter throughout the year, and we still expect that. So we still expect to see the most amount of margin expansion in the fourth quarter, ultimately driving margin expansion for the full year.

    但就這一點而言,邁克爾,如果你還記得的話,即使在今年年初,我們也表示利潤率擴張的節奏實際上將開始為負,正如我們在第一季看到的那樣。接下來,全年每季的年比利潤率擴張都將有所改善,我們仍然預期這一點。因此,我們仍預期第四季的利潤率擴張幅度最大,最終推動全年利潤率的擴張。

  • Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

    Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research

  • But margins might be down sequentially just because of seasonality.

    但由於季節性因素,利潤率可能會持續下降。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • That is correct.

    那是對的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from David Manthey with Baird.

    下一個問題來自 David Manthey 和 Baird。

  • David John Manthey - Senior Research Analyst

    David John Manthey - Senior Research Analyst

  • So acquisitions were 1.7% in the third quarter. You said 50 basis points for 2024. It looks like maybe couple of hundred million rolled off third quarter to fourth quarter last year, so we're looking at, what, maybe 150 basis points in the fourth quarter this year?

    因此第三季的收購率為 1.7%。你說2024年會上漲50個基點。看起來去年第三季到第四季可能有數億美元,所以我們正在考慮,今年第四季可能會上漲150個基點?

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Remember, when we talked about most of the rollover that we had for full year '23 was the portion of US Ecology that we completed May of '22. right, coming in, which was a majority of the rollover for the full year. As we think about the actual impact within the fourth quarter, we're looking at about 180 basis points.

    是的。請記住,當我們談論 23 年全年的大部分延期時,我們是在 22 年 5 月完成的《美國生態學》部分。是的,進來,這是全年展期的大部分。當我們考慮第四季度的實際影響時,我們關注的是大約 180 個基點。

  • David John Manthey - Senior Research Analyst

    David John Manthey - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. All right. And second, on the RNG development. I think around now is when these facilities were scheduled to come online and maybe you could just remind me the financial targets and how those 39 RNG facilities with the BP joint venture are expected to ramp from here.

    好的。好的。其次,關於RNG的發展。我認為現在是這些設施計劃上線的時間,也許您可以提醒我財務目標以及與 BP 合資企業的 39 個 RNG 設施預計如何從這裡開始增加。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So let me just talk about the entire portfolio rather than just the subset, right, so again, 5 have already come online here that are going to start contributing here in -- nominally in the fourth quarter, but really start to contribute in '24. You can kind of think about the cadence in the $20 million to $25 million per year of incremental EBITDA beginning in '24 and ultimately hitting run rate in '28, at which point we expect $100 million cumulative of additional EBITDA in the portfolio compared to our current baseline.

    是的。因此,讓我只談論整個投資組合,而不僅僅是子集,對,所以,再次,5 個已經在這裡上線,將開始在這裡做出貢獻——名義上是在第四季度,但真正開始在24 年做出貢獻。您可以想像一下從 24 年開始每年 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元增量 EBITDA 的節奏,最終在 28 年達到運行率,此時我們預計投資組合中的額外 EBITDA 累計將達到 1 億美元,而我們的當前基線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇(Jerry Revich)。

  • Jerry David Revich - VP

    Jerry David Revich - VP

  • Yes. I'm wondering if we could just talk about the margin opportunity over the course of 2024. Brian, as you pointed out, margin momentum on a seasonally adjusted basis is accelerating this year. So you're already on track to expand margins by, call it, a full 30, 40 basis points just on a run rate 3Q versus the full year average. And so as we think about the moving pieces in '24, I guess it's not hard to get to double your normal margin expansion targets, especially given the moves in -- potential moves in OCC.

    是的。我想知道我們是否可以只討論 2024 年的利潤機會。Brian,正如您所指出的,今年經季節性調整後的利潤勢頭正在加速。因此,僅根據第三季的運行率與全年平均相比,您已經預計將利潤率擴大整整 30、40 個基點。因此,當我們考慮 24 年的變動時,我想將正常利潤擴張目標加倍並不難,特別是考慮到 OCC 的潛在變動。

  • And I'm wondering, anything that we need to keep in mind as we look at those moving pieces and the cadence of margins that you pointed out in an answer to an earlier question?

    我想知道,當我們查看您在回答先前問題時指出的那些移動部分和邊距節奏時,我們需要記住什麼?

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So Jerry, the one thing I would point out is just remember, from the point in time in which we acquired US Ecology and we took several pricing actions, right? And as we sit there and move forward, we're going to get more in the cadence of more of an annual price increase on that portion of the business.

    是的。所以傑瑞,我要指出的一件事是記住,從我們收購 US Ecology 的時間點開始,我們採取了幾次定價行動,對嗎?當我們坐在那裡並向前邁進時,我們將在該部分業務的年度價格上漲中獲得更多的節奏。

  • So while we still expect margin expansion in the environmental solutions business and, at a rate, north or higher than what we expect in recycling and waste, we would expect that margin expansion to decelerate from what you saw in '23. So you can look in -- just in the quarter alone, margin was up almost 400 basis points year-over-year, we would not expect that level of contribution going forward.

    因此,雖然我們仍然預期環境解決方案業務的利潤率會成長,且成長速度將高於或高於我們在回收和廢棄物方面的預期,但我們預期利潤率擴張將比23 年的情況有所放緩。所以你可以看看——光是這個季度,利潤率就年增了近 400 個基點,我們預計未來不會有這樣的貢獻水準。

  • Jerry David Revich - VP

    Jerry David Revich - VP

  • Got it. But the base business, the momentum, it sounds like it's accelerating, excluding ES.

    知道了。但基礎業務、勢頭,聽起來似乎正在加速,不包括 ES。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, correct. I mean, if you take a look just right now, we're kind of in the 30 basis points. We talked long term in that 30 to 50, and you start to get some of the contribution from some of the other sustainability investments that we're making, so it's a little bit of push and pull and net-net, we would expect margin expansion in '24 over '23.

    是,對的。我的意思是,如果你現在看一下,我們的利率大約是 30 個基點。我們在這 30 到 50 年間進行了長期討論,你開始從我們正在進行的其他一些可持續發展投資中獲得一些貢獻,所以這是一點推拉和淨淨,我們預計利潤率24 年比 23 年擴張。

  • Jerry David Revich - VP

    Jerry David Revich - VP

  • Okay. Super. And can we talk about capital deployment? With the buyback announcement, can you just update us on how much more runway do you think you have to deploy more capital towards polymers, opportunities to redevelop gas electric plants into gas plants and stock buyback? From there, can you just calibrate us on how to think about the opportunities in each of those areas?

    好的。極好的。我們可以談談資本配置嗎?隨著回購公告的發布,您能否向我們介紹一下您認為您需要在聚合物上部署更多資金、將天然氣發電廠重新開發為天然氣廠的機會以及股票回購的最新情況?從那時起,您能否引導我們如何思考每個領域的機會?

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. Just to give you an idea, we've talked about, right, several investments, you've got the RNG portfolio, you've got Polymer Center and you have Blue Polymers. Some of which is going to come through capital, some of which is going to be the investment in the JVs. Just to kind of think it from a cumulative perspective here, maybe I'll walk through each. From polymer centers, we see a total investment of around $300 million, okay, for the 4 centers. right?

    當然。只是為了給你一個想法,我們已經討論過,對,幾項投資,你有 RNG 投資組合,你有 Polymer Center,你有 Blue Polymers。其中一些將透過資本來實現,其中一些將是對合資企業的投資。只是從累積的角度來思考,也許我會逐一介紹。從聚合物中心來看,我們看到 4 個中心的總投資約為 3 億美元。正確的?

  • And that's going to happen, right? It's happened, and we think that's over a 4-year time frame of about $70 million a year. Blue Polymers, you can think of that being about $160 million investment. And again, those are going to be JVs. So that will come through as an investment in those joint ventures. And then the investment in the RNG portfolio is, call it, around $375 million, okay?

    這將會發生,對嗎?它已經發生了,我們認為這已經超過了 4 年的時間框架,每年約 7000 萬美元。 Blue Polymers,你可以想像這大約是 1.6 億美元的投資。再說一遍,這些將是合資企業。因此,這將透過對這些合資企業的投資來實現。然後,RNG 投資組合的投資約為 3.75 億美元,好嗎?

  • So those are the cumulative investments, but we've been making those investments. So those are somewhat in our run rate. Now -- and we talked about that. After the US Ecology acquisition, where leverage elevates to 3.4x, we were going to focus on deleveraging, getting back to that 3x before we resume the share repurchase, got back to 2.9x. We have since resumed, right, that share repurchase program. And as you just saw in the announcement, right, the Board just authorized another $3 billion program. That extends over the next 3 years beginning in '24 through the end of '26.

    這些是累計投資,但我們一直在進行這些投資。所以這些在我們的運行率中有所體現。現在——我們討論了這個。收購 US Ecology 後,槓桿率升至 3.4 倍,我們將專注於去槓桿化,在恢復股票回購之前回到 3 倍,回到 2.9 倍。我們已經恢復了股票回購計畫。正如您剛才在公告中看到的那樣,董事會剛剛批准了另一個 30 億美元的計劃。這將持續到從 24 年開始到 26 年底的未來 3 年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的史蒂芬妮摩爾。

  • Stephanie Lynn Benjamin Moore - Equity Analyst

    Stephanie Lynn Benjamin Moore - Equity Analyst

  • I appreciate the color so far in kind of 2024 outlook and just now on kind of the margin opportunity, too. But, maybe could you talk a little bit about your views on inflation in 2024? Not necessarily hard numbers, but kind of buckets of areas where you think some inflationary pressures maybe could linger from 2023? Or on the other side of that, should abate versus 2023. Just trying to think of those puts and takes would be helpful.

    我很欣賞迄今為止 2024 年前景的顏色,以及現在的利潤機會。但是,也許您能談談您對 2024 年通膨的看法嗎?不一定是硬性數字,但您認為從 2023 年起可能會持續存在一些通膨壓力?或者另一方面,與 2023 年相比,應該會減弱。只要嘗試考慮這些看跌期權就會有所幫助。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think for most categories, kind of thinking about macro metric like CPI kind of puts you in the right zone. Maintenance will be elevated off of that. Just, historically, it's inflated a little faster than that. And we don't expect the supply chain to be fully caught up or reconciled in 2024, which means we're going to be driving some older equipment, and that's going to be at the end of the curve where maintenance cost is higher than it normally would be.

    是的。我認為對於大多數類別來說,考慮 CPI 等宏觀指標會讓你處於正確的區域。維護工作將因此而提高。只是,從歷史上看,它的膨脹速度比這要快一些。我們預計供應鏈不會在 2024 年完全跟上或協調,這意味著我們將使用一些較舊的設備,而這將處於曲線的末端,維護成本將高於它通常會是。

  • So that would be the one, I think, that's going to be elevated. Everything else kind of think about that, where you see inflation going, and if that's 4%, 4.5%, whatever that lands, that's kind of where we'll build a budget against that.

    所以我認為這將是一個將會被提升的。其他一切都要考慮這一點,你會看到通貨膨脹的走向,如果是 4%、4.5%,無論結果如何,我們都會根據這種情況制定預算。

  • Stephanie Lynn Benjamin Moore - Equity Analyst

    Stephanie Lynn Benjamin Moore - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate it. And then I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the commodity basket exposure. Can you talk a little bit about how that basket is trending today? Maybe how that compares to 4Q of last year? I know there are some puts and takes to the various components, so that'd be helpful.

    好的。這很有幫助。我很感激。然後我只想跟進一下商品籃子的曝光。您能談談今天該籃子的趨勢嗎?也許與去年第四季相比如何?我知道各個組件都有一些放置和取出,所以這會很有幫助。

  • Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

    Brian M. DelGhiaccio - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. So as we said, our average commodity price for the third quarter was $112 per ton. Right now, we're expecting about $120 in the fourth quarter. That compared in the prior year for the fourth quarter, we were at $88 per ton. So we're expecting a year-over-year increase of about $30 a ton in the fourth quarter.

    是的,當然。正如我們所說,第三季的平均商品價格為每噸 112 美元。目前,我們預計第四季的營收約為 120 美元。與去年第四季相比,我們的價格為每噸 88 美元。因此,我們預計第四季度的價格將年增約 30 美元/噸。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist.

    下一個問題來自 Tobey Sommer 和 Truist。

  • Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD

    Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD

  • To kind of follow up on a recent question, but ask it from a different angle. If you think about some of the pressures on margins, smaller players that might be potential acquisition targets, how do you anticipate trends in a few buckets impacting their financial performance and maybe desire to sell? And I kind of -- I'm thinking of inflation in terms of their costs, the ongoing requirement and necessity to invest in technology. And then as you just mentioned, I think fleet and supply chain won't fully be normalized. But if you apply those things to sort of the other side of the equation, not your own business, but those that you may look to incorporate in your business, what do you see?

    跟進最近的一個問題,但從不同的角度提出。如果您考慮到利潤率方面的一些壓力,以及可能成為潛在收購目標的小型企業,您如何預測影響其財務表現並可能希望出售的幾個方面的趨勢?我有點——我正在考慮通貨膨脹的成本、持續的需求和技術投資的必要性。然後正如你剛才提到的,我認為車隊和供應鏈不會完全正常化。但如果你將這些東西應用到等式的另一邊,不是你自己的業務,而是那些你可能希望納入你的業務的業務,你會看到什麼?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. The pipeline for acquisitions is strong, both in recycling and waste and environmental solutions. This is the cost pressure, which has started to abate for the smaller players that's on the labor side. So they're starting to get less pressure there as we've seen turnover come down and labor availability go up. It's still elevated versus historical norm, but it's gotten easier relative to a year ago.

    是的。在回收、廢棄物和環境解決方案領域,收購管道都很強大。這就是成本壓力,對於勞動力方面的小型企業來說,成本壓力已經開始減輕。因此,隨著我們看到營業額下降和勞動力供應增加,他們開始承受的壓力越來越小。與歷史正常水平相比,它仍然較高,但與一年前相比變得更容易了。

  • The supply chain hasn't and that's certainly becoming constrained. And anybody who's a spot buyer of vehicles is really in a challenged spot certainly through the end of next year and probably in '25 or '26, depending on how they -- how fast the supply chain can recover because they're prioritizing all of their base customers who buy a large number, a similar number of trucks every year.

    供應鏈還沒有,而且這肯定會受到限制。到明年年底,可能是 25 年或 26 年,任何汽車現貨買家確實都面臨著挑戰​​,這取決於他們如何——供應鏈恢復的速度有多快,因為他們優先考慮所有他們的基本客戶每年都會購買大量、類似數量的卡車。

  • So we certainly see that as an advantage. And then digital, I'd say, has just been a building trend over the last 5-plus years. That I think is going to be with us for at least the next 5 and probably a much longer period than that, which is -- we're making, over a series of years, between capital and OpEx, hundreds of millions of dollars of investment to our digital footprint to make the experience better for our customers and employees, and that certainly has a scale advantage for us. And also a skill advantage of investing in the resources who know how to take those technologies and apply them in a way that make our customers' lives and employees' lives better.

    所以我們當然認為這是一個優勢。我想說的是,數位化在過去五年多的時間裡已經成為一種趨勢。我認為這一點至少會在接下來的5 年裡持續存在,而且可能會持續更長的一段時間,那就是——我們在接下來的幾年裡,在資本和營運支出之間創造了數億美元的收入。對我們的數位足跡進行投資,為我們的客戶和員工提供更好的體驗,這對我們來說無疑具有規模優勢。還有一個技能優勢是投資那些知道如何利用這些技術並以改善我們客戶和員工生活的方式應用這些技術的資源。

  • Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD

    Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD

  • And then just as my follow-up. I know it's been in the news, maybe even too much, ad nauseam. But GLP-1s in the market, looking for second, third, fourth, all the way to nth derivative impacts, have you looked at that and have any sort of preliminary view on what that could mean for volumes over what would probably be a very long term?

    然後就像我的後續行動一樣。我知道這件事已經出現在新聞中了,甚至可能太多了,令人噁心。但是市場上的GLP-1,正在尋找第二個、第三個、第四個,一直到第n 個衍生影響,您是否研究過這一點,並對銷量可能意味著什麼有任何初步的看法,而這可能會是一個非常大的變化。長期?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • No. We've not done a lot of work on that yet, plenty in front of us right now. Obviously, if that continues to be a major trend, we'll think about that. But I'd say we're in the tertiary or beyond in terms of the impact of those.

    不。我們在這方面還沒有做很多工作,現在還有很多工作要做。顯然,如果這繼續成為主要趨勢,我們會考慮這一點。但我想說,就這些影響而言,我們處於第三位或更高水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Kevin Chiang with CIBC.

    下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Kevin Jiang。

  • Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst

    Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst

  • Just in regards to the M&A pipeline within Environmental Services, I think up here in Canada, there's been the -- Competition Bureau is trying to prevent the merger to, I guess, I'll call them energy waste service companies here, so it looks like there'll be some assets. Just wondering how the pipeline looks up here in Canada. And is energy waste services an area of growth for you or accelerated growth for you when you look at your opportunities in Canada?

    就環境服務領域的併購管道而言,我認為在加拿大,競爭局正在試圖阻止合併,我想,我在這裡將它們稱為能源廢物服務公司,所以看起來就像會有一些資產一樣。只是想知道加拿大的管道是什麼樣子的。當您審視加拿大的機會時,能源廢棄物服務是您的成長領域還是加速成長的領域?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We're certainly looking at opportunities in both U.S. and Canada. That probably isn't at the top of the list. We'd be more opportunistic in that side of environmental services.

    是的。我們當然正在美國和加拿大尋找機會。這可能不在列表的頂部。在環境服務方面我們會更加投機取巧。

  • Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst

    Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst

  • Okay. And just -- I get the pricing, I guess, it sounds like the pricing opportunities that you're going to move from is something that -- you're doing it 3, 4 times a year within environmental services to once a year, which is maybe more regular as inflation starts to -- or continues to subside here.

    好的。只是 - 我知道定價,我想,聽起來你要從定價機會中轉移 - 你在環境服務領域每年進行 3、4 次,改為每年一次,隨著通貨膨脹開始或繼續消退,這種情況可能會更加規律。

  • But just given the pricing opportunities that you've talked about and the ability to get pricing more aligned with how you think about pricing within solid waste, just why not push that lever more if you can? Or did you feel the customers were starting to push back on maybe the frequency in which you are coming to them with price increases within ES?

    但考慮到您所討論的定價機會以及使定價與您對固體廢物定價的看法更加一致的能力,如果可以的話,為什麼不進一步推動這一槓桿呢?或者您覺得客戶開始抵制您在 ES 內提高價格的頻率?

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No. I mean, ES is a big and diverse space. So there's been places where we've kind of pushed past the price line where we would have wanted to. We've lost some volume, which I congratulated the team, obviously. You don't understand the ceiling on price until you take it there.

    是的。不,我的意思是,ES 是一個巨大且多元化的空間。因此,在某些地方,我們已經超出了我們想要的價格線。我們失去了一些銷量,顯然我對團隊表示祝賀。除非你親自去那裡,否則你不會理解價格的上限。

  • And listen, in certain parts of the business, we'll get into more of an annual increase for our bigger customers that's contracted, for example. In other parts of the business, particularly the more field-facing, field services, those are things where it's really dynamic pricing because every opportunity, even, job, you've got a lot more flexibility there.

    聽著,在業務的某些部分,例如,我們將為簽約的大客戶提供更多的年度成長。在業務的其他部分,特別是更面向現場的現場服務,這些都是真正動態定價的事情,因為每一個機會,甚至是工作,你在那裡都有更多的靈活性。

  • And we'll certainly test the market and see what the market bears in terms of opportunity. I'd say underneath that, too, there's a big mix opportunity, which is just looking at the types of jobs we do, looking at the customer mix and making sure we're prioritizing our sales team around the most attractive customers, and then conversely, deprioritizing around customers who aren't willing to pay what we think is a very fair value for what we deliver.

    我們一定會測試市場,看看市場蘊含哪些機會。我想說的是,在這之下,還有一個很大的混合機會,就是看看我們所做的工作類型,看看客戶組合,並確保我們優先考慮我們的銷售團隊圍繞最具吸引力的客戶,然後相反,對於那些不願意支付我們認為對我們所提供的服務非常公平的價值的客戶,我們會降低優先順序。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • At this time, there appear to be no further questions. Mr. Vander Ark, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

    此時,似乎沒有其他問題了。范德阿克先生,我會將電話轉回給您進行結束語。

  • Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

    Jon Vander Ark - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Betsy. I would like to thank our more than 40,000 employees for their continued commitment to providing our customers with first-class service to create a more sustainable world. Have a good evening and be safe.

    謝謝你,貝特西。我要感謝我們 40,000 多名員工持續致力於為我們的客戶提供一流的服務,以創造一個更永續的世界。祝您晚上愉快,注意安全。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連線。