Republic Services Inc (RSG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Republic Services Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Investor Conference Call. Republic Services is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RSG. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎來到 Republic Services 第四季度和 2022 年全年投資者電話會議。 Republic Services 在紐約證券交易所上市交易，代碼為 RSG。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Aaron Evans, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Aaron Evans。請繼續。

I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call. Jon Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO, are joining me as we discuss our performance.

歡迎大家參加 Republic Services 的第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。我們的首席執行官 Jon Vander Ark；我們的首席財務官 Brian DelGhiaccio 和我一起討論我們的業績。

I would like to take a moment to remind everyone that some of the information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

我想花點時間提醒大家，我們在今天的電話會議上討論的一些信息包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能與實際結果存在重大差異。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件討論了可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素。

The material that we discuss today is time-sensitive. If, in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is February 15, 2023.

我們今天討論的材料是時效性的。如果將來您收聽此電話會議的重播或錄音，您應該注意原始電話會議的日期，即 2023 年 2 月 15 日。

Please note that this call is a property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited.

請注意，此電話是 Republic Services, Inc. 的財產。未經 Republic Services 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何形式重新分發、轉發或轉播此電話。

I want to point out that our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and the discussion of business activities, along with the recording of this call, are available on the Republic's website at republicservices.com.

我想指出，我們的 SEC 備案文件、我們的收益新聞稿，其中包括 GAAP 調節表和業務活動的討論，以及本次電話會議的錄音，都可以在 Republicservices.com 的網站上找到。

I want to remind you that Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the dates, times and presentations are posted on our website.

我想提醒您，Republic 的管理團隊定期參加投資者會議。當安排好活動時，日期、時間和介紹會發佈在我們的網站上。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jon.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給喬恩。

Thanks, Aaron. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The Republic team finished the year strong by executing our strategy designed to profitably grow the business. We outpaced expectations throughout the year, delivering results that exceeded our full year guidance, even in the face of increased volatility in the broader marketplace.

謝謝，亞倫。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。 Republic 團隊通過執行我們旨在實現業務盈利增長的戰略，以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。我們全年都超出了預期，即使在更廣泛的市場波動加劇的情況下，我們的業績也超過了我們的全年指導。

During 2022, we achieved revenue growth of 20%, including a 10% from acquisitions; delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of 16%, generated adjusted earnings per share of $4.93, which is an 18% increase over the prior year; and produced $1.74 billion of adjusted free cash flow, a 15% increase over the prior year. We continue to believe that investing in value-creating acquisitions is the best use of our free cash flow.

2022 年，我們實現了 20% 的收入增長，其中 10% 來自收購；調整後 EBITDA 增長 16%，調整後每股收益為 4.93 美元，比上年增長 18%；並產生了 17.4 億美元的調整後自由現金流，比上年增長 15%。我們仍然相信，投資於創造價值的收購是對我們自由現金流的最佳利用。

We invested $2.7 billion in acquisitions in 2022, which includes the acquisition of US Ecology. The integration of US Ecology is going well, with cost synergies tracking ahead of plan. Revenue contribution from US Ecology outperformed our expectations by nearly $50 million for the year, with almost all of the overperformance occurring in the fourth quarter.

我們在 2022 年投資了 27 億美元用於收購，其中包括收購 US Ecology。 US Ecology 的整合進展順利，成本協同效應比計劃提前。 US Ecology 全年的收入貢獻超過我們的預期近 5000 萬美元，幾乎所有超額表現都發生在第四季度。

We continue to adjust prices related to US Ecology and our broader Environmental Solutions business to better align with the capital invested and resources deployed. Pricing actions taken to date have been successful as our customers recognize the high value of service we provide. Additionally, we are building momentum cross-selling our complete set of products and services, with approximately $40 million in new sales to date.

我們繼續調整與 US Ecology 和我們更廣泛的環境解決方案業務相關的價格，以更好地與投入的資本和部署的資源保持一致。由於我們的客戶認識到我們提供的服務的高價值，因此迄今為止採取的定價行動是成功的。此外，我們正在建立整套產品和服務的交叉銷售勢頭，迄今為止的新銷售額約為 4000 萬美元。

Aside from US Ecology, we invested $500 million in value-creating acquisitions during the year. All of these deals were in the recycling and solid waste space. As part of our balanced approach to capital allocation, we returned nearly $800 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

除了 US Ecology，我們在這一年中還投資了 5 億美元用於創造價值的收購。所有這些交易都在回收和固體廢物領域。作為我們平衡的資本配置方法的一部分，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了近 8 億美元。

Regarding customer zeal, we continue to enhance our culture of delivering a world-class customer experience to win new business and drive customer loyalty. Our customer retention rate remained strong at 94%, and we exited 2022 with our highest NPS scores of the year.

在客戶熱情方面，我們繼續加強提供世界一流客戶體驗的文化，以贏得新業務並提高客戶忠誠度。我們的客戶保留率保持在 94% 的強勁水平，我們以今年最高的 NPS 分數結束了 2022 年。

We delivered outsized organic revenue growth during the fourth quarter, with simultaneous growth in both price and volume. Core price on related revenue increased to 8.4%, and average yield on related revenue increased to 6.7%. This is the highest level of pricing in company history. Organic volume growth was 1.5%. Volume growth was broad-based across our market verticals and geographies.

我們在第四季度實現了巨大的有機收入增長，價格和數量同時增長。相關收入的核心價格增長至 8.4%，相關收入的平均收益率增長至 6.7%。這是公司歷史上最高的定價水平。有機銷量增長 1.5%。我們的垂直市場和地區的銷量增長是廣泛的。

Moving to digital. In early 2022, we implemented the finance and procurement modules of our new ERP system, which streamline back-office activities and provide our local leaders with enhanced data. Currently, we are building our new asset management system, which is expected to increase maintenance technician productivity and drive better warranty recovery. We expect to implement the new asset management system beginning in 2024.

轉向數字化。 2022 年初，我們實施了新 ERP 系統的財務和採購模塊，簡化了後台活動並為我們當地的領導者提供了增強的數據。目前，我們正在構建新的資產管理系統，該系統有望提高維護技術人員的工作效率並推動更好的保修恢復。我們預計從 2024 年開始實施新的資產管理系統。

We continue to make progress on deploying RISE tablets in our collection business. We finished the implementation for all large container and small container routes during 2022 and completed 37% of residential routes by the end of the year. The remaining residential routes are scheduled to be complete by mid-2023. This is a key component enabling further connectivity with our customers, including real-time service notification. The adoption of RISE has helped drive operational efficiencies and cost savings worth approximately $50 million annually.

我們在收集業務中部署 RISE 平板電腦方面繼續取得進展。 2022年全部完成大型集裝箱和小型集裝箱航線，年底完成37%的住宅航線。其餘住宅路線計劃於 2023 年年中完成。這是一個關鍵組件，可以進一步連接我們的客戶，包括實時服務通知。 RISE 的採用幫助提高了運營效率並節省了每年約 5000 萬美元的成本。

Sustainability is core to our strategy and one of our differentiating capabilities. We believe Republic Services is in a unique position to leverage sustainability as a platform for profitable growth while making a positive impact on the environment. For example, our polymer centers are advancing circularity of plastics. This is the first time a single U.S. company will manage the plastic stream from current site collection to delivery of high-quality recycled content for consumer packaging.

可持續性是我們戰略的核心，也是我們的差異化能力之一。我們相信 Republic Services 處於獨特的地位，可以利用可持續性作為盈利增長的平台，同時對環境產生積極影響。例如，我們的聚合物中心正在推進塑料的循環利用。這是第一次由一家美國公司管理從當前網站收集到交付用於消費包裝的高質量回收內容的塑料流。

Development of the first center in Las Vegas is on track and is slated to come online in late 2023. Development of our second polymer center is already underway. This facility will be located in the Midwest and will serve as a hub for aggregating and processing recovered plastics in the region. This center should come online in late 2024.

拉斯維加斯第一個中心的開發正在按計劃進行，預計將於 2023 年底上線。我們第二個聚合物中心的開發已經在進行中。該設施將位於中西部，將作為該地區收集和加工回收塑料的中心。該中心應於 2024 年底上線。

The investments we are making to develop these polymer centers is being absorbed through our normal capital expenditure process. Additionally, the development of our renewable natural gas projects is progressing well. All 57 of these projects are being codeveloped with partners, with the majority structured as a joint venture. We expect 4 of these projects to come online by mid-2023.

我們為開發這些聚合物中心所做的投資正在通過我們正常的資本支出流程被吸收。此外，我們可再生天然氣項目的開發進展順利。所有 57 個項目都是與合作夥伴共同開發的，其中大部分項目都是合資企業。我們預計其中 4 個項目將在 2023 年中期上線。

As part of our approach to sustainability, we continually strive to be a workplace where the best people from all backgrounds come to work. Employee engagement improved to a score of 85, with 97% participation. Turnover rates in the fourth quarter improved to the lowest level we've experienced in nearly 2 years. As a result, we are better staffed to capitalize on growth opportunities in the market.

作為我們可持續發展方法的一部分，我們不斷努力成為一個讓來自不同背景的最優秀人才來工作的工作場所。員工敬業度提高到 85 分，參與率為 97%。第四季度的離職率提高到我們近 2 年來的最低水平。因此，我們可以更好地利用市場增長機會。

Our comprehensive sustainability performance continues to be widely recognized as Republic Services was named to the Dow Jones Sustainability. Index for the seventh consecutive year. Our 2022 results clearly demonstrate our ability to create sustainable value and strengthens the foundation from which we will continue to grow our business.

隨著 Republic Services 入選道瓊斯可持續發展指數，我們全面的可持續發展績效繼續得到廣泛認可。連續第七年上榜。我們 2022 年的業績清楚地表明了我們創造可持續價值的能力，並鞏固了我們繼續發展業務的基礎。

Looking forward, we expect to deliver high single-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow in 2023, even with the headwinds from lower recycled commodity prices and higher interest rates. More specifically, we expect 2022 revenues in a range of $14.65 billion to $14.8 billion. This represents high single-digit growth compared to the prior year.

展望未來，我們預計 2023 年的收入、EBITDA 和自由現金流將實現高單位數增長，即使受到回收商品價格下降和利率上升的不利影響。更具體地說，我們預計 2022 年的收入將在 146.5 億美元至 148 億美元之間。與上一年相比，這代表了高個位數的增長。

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $4.275 billion to $4.325 billion. This represents high single-digit to low double-digit growth compared to the prior year. We expect to deliver adjusted earnings per share in a range of $5.15 to $5.23 and generate adjusted free cash flow in the range of $1.86 billion to $1.9 billion.

調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 42.75 億美元至 43.25 億美元之間。與上一年相比，這代表了高個位數到低兩位數的增長。我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 5.15 美元至 5.23 美元之間，並產生 18.6 億美元至 19 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

Our acquisition pipeline continues to support outsized levels of activity in both Recycling & Solid Waste and Environmental Solutions. We are targeting at least $500 million of investment in value-creating acquisitions in 2023. Our 2023 financial guidance includes a rollover contribution from acquisitions that closed in 2022.

我們的收購管道繼續支持回收和固體廢物以及環境解決方案方面的超大規模活動。我們的目標是在 2023 年對創造價值的收購進行至少 5 億美元的投資。我們的 2023 年財務指南包括 2022 年完成的收購的展期貢獻。

I will now turn the call over to Brian, who will provide details on the quarter and year.

我現在將電話轉給 Brian，他將提供季度和年度的詳細信息。

Thanks, Jon. Core price on total revenue was 7.4% for the fourth quarter. Core price on related revenue was 8.4%, which included open market pricing of 10.4% and restricted pricing of 5.1%. The components of core price on related revenue included small container of 11.8%, large container of 8.6% and residential of 7.8%.

謝謝，喬恩。第四季度核心價格佔總收入的比例為 7.4%。相關收入的核心價格為 8.4%，其中公開市場定價為 10.4%，限制定價為 5.1%。相關收入核心價格的組成部分包括小型集裝箱 11.8%、大型集裝箱 8.6% 和住宅 7.8%。

Average yield on total revenue was 5.9%. Average yield on related revenue was 6.7%, an increase of 40 basis points when compared to our third quarter performance. In 2023, we expect average yield on total revenue of approximately 5.5%. We expect average yield on related revenue of approximately 6.5%. This is an increase of 80 basis points over our full year 2022 results.

總收入的平均收益率為 5.9%。相關收入的平均收益率為 6.7%，與我們第三季度的業績相比增加了 40 個基點。到 2023 年，我們預計總收入的平均收益率約為 5.5%。我們預計相關收入的平均收益率約為 6.5%。這比我們 2022 年全年的業績增加了 80 個基點。

Fourth quarter volume increased 1.5%. The components of volume included an increase in small container of 1.6%, an increase in large container of 60 basis points, an increase in residential of 1.2% and an increase in landfill of 3.9%. For 2023, we expect organic volume growth in a range of 50 basis points to 1%.

第四季度銷量增長 1.5%。體積的組成部分包括小型集裝箱增長 1.6%，大型集裝箱增長 60 個基點，住宅增長 1.2% 和垃圾填埋場增長 3.9%。對於 2023 年，我們預計有機銷量增長在 50 個基點到 1% 之間。

Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $88 per ton in the quarter. This compared to $218 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales decreased revenue by 180 basis points during the quarter. 2022 full year commodity prices were $170 per ton. This compared to $187 per ton in the prior year.

繼續回收。本季度商品價格為每噸 88 美元。相比之下，去年每噸 218 美元。回收加工和商品銷售在本季度使收入減少了 180 個基點。 2022 年全年商品價格為每噸 170 美元。相比之下，去年每噸 187 美元。

Current commodity prices are approximately $95 per ton. We believe that current commodity prices are temporarily depressed due to a global supply-demand imbalance and that prices will recover in the second half of the year. Accordingly, we are assuming average recycled commodity prices of $125 per ton in 2023, with prices starting at $95 per ton in the first quarter and steadily increasing throughout the year.

目前的商品價格約為每噸 95 美元。我們認為，當前大宗商品價格因全球供需失衡而暫時低迷，下半年價格將回升。因此，我們假設 2023 年回收商品的平均價格為每噸 125 美元，第一季度價格為每噸 95 美元，並在全年穩步上漲。

At $125 per ton, this would result in a decrease in full year 2023 revenue and EBITDA of $45 million when compared to the prior year and a 30 basis point headwind to EBITDA margin. In the first quarter of 2023, this would result in a year-on-year decrease of nearly $30 million in revenue and EBITDA and a 70 basis point headwind to EBITDA margin.

按每噸 125 美元計算，這將導致 2023 年全年收入和 EBITDA 與上一年相比減少 4500 萬美元，並使 EBITDA 利潤率下降 30 個基點。在 2023 年第一季度，這將導致收入和 EBITDA 同比減少近 3000 萬美元，EBITDA 利潤率下降 70 個基點。

Next, turning to our Environmental Solutions business. Fourth quarter Environmental Solutions revenue increased approximately $320 million over the prior year, which primarily related to the acquisition of US Ecology. On a same-store basis, environmental solutions contributed 60 basis points to internal growth during the quarter.

接下來，轉向我們的環境解決方案業務。第四季度環境解決方案收入比上年增長約 3.2 億美元，這主要與收購 US Ecology 有關。在同店基礎上，環境解決方案在本季度為內部增長貢獻了 60 個基點。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.3%. This compares to 28.1% in the prior year. Margin performance during the quarter included a 130 basis point decrease from acquisitions, which included 100 basis points related to US Ecology, and an 80 basis point headwind from lower recycled commodity prices. These margin headwinds were partially offset by a 20 basis point increase from net fuel and margin expansion in the underlying business of 110 basis points.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.3%。相比之下，去年為 28.1%。本季度的利潤率表現包括收購減少 130 個基點，其中包括與美國生態相關的 100 個基點，以及回收商品價格下降帶來的 80 個基點逆風。這些利潤率逆風被淨燃料增加 20 個基點和基礎業務利潤率擴張 110 個基點部分抵消。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in the Recycling & Solid Waste business was 28.7%. This compares to 28.6% margin in the prior year or 10 basis points of margin expansion. Margins improved in the Recycling & Solid Waste business even with an 80 basis point headwind from lower recycled commodity prices.

回收和固體廢物業務第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 28.7%。相比之下，上一年的利潤率為 28.6%，利潤率擴大了 10 個基點。即使回收商品價格下降導致 80 個基點的逆風，回收和固體廢物業務的利潤率也有所提高。

Fourth quarter SG&A expenses, excluding transaction costs from US Ecology, were 10.9% of revenue. This included 40 basis points from additional incentive compensation expense due to full year financial outperformance. Full year SG&A expenses were 10.2% of revenue. This was favorable 20 basis points compared to the prior year and reflects continued cost management as we grow the business.

第四季度的 SG&A 費用（不包括 US Ecology 的交易成本）佔收入的 10.9%。這包括因全年財務表現出色而產生的額外激勵補償費用的 40 個基點。全年 SG&A 費用佔收入的 10.2%。與上一年相比，這是有利的 20 個基點，反映了隨著我們業務的發展，持續的成本管理。

In 2023, we expect EBITDA margin to be approximately 29.2%. The 10 basis points of expected margin expansion include a 40 basis point decline related to acquisitions, primarily related to US Ecology, and a 30 basis point headwind from lower recycled commodity prices. These headwinds are more than offset by margin expansion in the underlying business of 80 basis points.

2023 年，我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率約為 29.2%。預期利潤率增長 10 個基點包括與收購相關的 40 個基點下降，主要與美國生態相關，以及回收商品價格下降帶來的 30 個基點逆風。這些不利因素被基礎業務利潤率增長 80 個基點所抵消。

While we expect full year expansion compared to the prior year, margins are expected to be down in the first half due to the impact of acquisition rollover and recycled commodity prices. This is most notable in the first quarter where these headwinds impact margin by a combined 210 basis points. Depreciation, amortization and accretion was 10.7% of revenue in 2022 and is expected to be relatively consistent at 10.8% of revenue in 2023.

雖然我們預計全年與上一年相比有所擴張，但由於收購展期和回收商品價格的影響，預計上半年的利潤率將下降。這在第一季度最為顯著，這些逆風對利潤率的影響合計達 210 個基點。折舊、攤銷和增值佔 2022 年收入的 10.7%，預計到 2023 年將相對穩定，佔收入的 10.8%。

Full year 2022 adjusted free cash flow was $1.74 billion, an increase of 15% compared to the prior year. This was driven by EBITDA growth in the business. For '23, we are projecting adjusted free cash flow in a range of $1.86 billion to $1.9 billion or approximately 8% growth at the midpoint. We believe this level of performance is very strong given the expected impact from lower recycled commodity prices, higher interest rates and higher cash taxes as bonus depreciation begins to unwind.

2022 年全年調整後的自由現金流為 17.4 億美元，比上年增長 15%。這是由業務的 EBITDA 增長推動的。對於 23 年，我們預計調整後的自由現金流在 18.6 億美元至 19 億美元之間，或中點增長約 8%。考慮到隨著紅利貶值開始解除，較低的回收商品價格、較高的利率和較高的現金稅的預期影響，我們認為這一業績水平非常強勁。

Total debt at the end of the year was $11.9 billion, and total liquidity was $1.7 billion. Floating debt interest rates consistently increased throughout 2022, and we now expect net interest expense of approximately $480 million in 2023. This is an increase of approximately $90 million compared to the prior year.

年底總債務為 119 億美元，流動資金總額為 17 億美元。浮動債務利率在整個 2022 年持續上升，我們現在預計 2023 年的淨利息支出約為 4.8 億美元。這比上一年增加了約 9000 萬美元。

As a reminder, a 1% increase in interest rates results in approximately $33 million of additional interest expense. Our leverage ratio at the end of the year was approximately 3.1x. We expect to revert to 3x leverage by mid-2023.

提醒一下，利率增加 1% 會導致大約 3300 萬美元的額外利息支出。我們年底的槓桿率約為 3.1 倍。我們預計到 2023 年年中將恢復到 3 倍的槓桿率。

With respect to taxes, our combined tax rate and noncash charges from solar investments resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 26.1% during the fourth quarter and 25.1% for the full year. This lower-than-anticipated tax rate resulted in a $0.06 benefit to our full year 2022 EPS. We expect an equivalent tax impact of approximately 26% in 2023, made up of an adjusted effective tax rate of 20% and approximately $170 million of noncash charges from solar investments.

在稅收方面，我們的綜合稅率和太陽能投資的非現金費用在第四季度產生了 26.1% 的同等稅收影響，全年產生了 25.1% 的稅收影響。這種低於預期的稅率導致我們 2022 年全年每股收益增加 0.06 美元。我們預計 2023 年的等效稅收影響約為 26%，其中包括 20% 的調整後有效稅率和約 1.7 億美元的太陽能投資非現金費用。

Finally, we expect a majority of the EPS growth in 2023 to be back-end loaded. This results from having the toughest prior year comparisons on recycled commodity prices, interest rates and taxes during the first half of the year.

最後，我們預計 2023 年的大部分 EPS 增長將來自後端。這是由於上半年對回收商品價格、利率和稅收進行了最嚴格的前一年比較。

With that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.

有了這個，接線員，我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Tyler Brown of Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的泰勒布朗。

Brian, so obviously, pricing really strong here. I think full year pricing in the open market would stay just over 9% in the restricted piece, call it, 4.5%. But I am curious if we were to kind of decompose that next year, how those numbers would look? Will we kind of see a convergence in those two? Or could we actually see the restricted pricing lead with all the CPI lookbacks?

布賴恩，很明顯，這裡的定價非常高。我認為公開市場的全年定價在限製品中將保持略高於 9%，稱之為 4.5%。但我很好奇，如果明年我們要進行分解，這些數字會是什麼樣子？我們會看到這兩者的融合嗎？或者我們真的可以在所有 CPI 回顧中看到限制定價領先嗎？

No. We would actually expect the restricted pricing to increase from the levels of where it is in the fourth quarter. So again, on related revenue, it was 5.1% restricted in the fourth quarter. And we would expect that to improve 50 to 100 basis points in '23. But we do expect the level of pricing to be driven by the open market, similar to what you've seen in '22 and, for that matter, the prior years as well.

不。我們實際上預計限制定價會比第四季度的水平有所增加。因此，在相關收入方面，第四季度再次受到 5.1% 的限制。我們預計 23 年會提高 50 到 100 個基點。但我們確實預計定價水平將由公開市場驅動，類似於你在 22 世紀所看到的，就此而言，前幾年也是如此。

Yes. Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then on the shape of kind of how the yields will progress, will we have a more, I'm going to call it, historically normal cadence where pricing -- and I'm talking total pricing, say, above 5.5% and then it tapers off below 5.5% as the year finishes out?

是的。好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後關於收益率將如何發展的形狀，我們會不會有更多，我將稱之為歷史上正常的定價節奏——我說的是總定價，比如 5.5% 以上，然後隨著今年的結束，它會逐漸減少到 5.5% 以下嗎？

Yes. Listen, I guess you're talking about then on total revenue, so I'll give you that piece.

是的。聽著，我猜你是在談論總收入，所以我會給你那塊。

Yes.

是的。

So yes, it starts highest -- actually, our high watermark is in the first quarter based on our expectations. And then it sequentially declines from there, but we're expecting that pricing remains above 5% in all quarters.

所以是的，它開始最高 - 實際上，我們的高水位線是根據我們的預期在第一季度。然後它從那裡依次下降，但我們預計所有季度的定價都將保持在 5% 以上。

Yes. Okay. All right. That's helpful. And just real quick, how much M&A rollover is in the guide? And just to be crystal clear, the $0.5 billion that you expect to spend, none of that is included in guidance. Is that right?

是的。好的。好的。這很有幫助。很快，指南中有多少併購展期？明確地說，你預計花費的 5 億美元，這些都沒有包含在指導中。是對的嗎？

Yes. So I'll answer your second question first. That is correct. We have not included that. So what is included are deals that closed by the end of the year. It's $440 million worth of revenue or 300 basis points of growth, that's the rollover, and most of that being US Ecology.

是的。所以我先回答你的第二個問題。那是對的。我們沒有包括在內。因此，其中包括在年底前完成的交易。這是價值 4.4 億美元的收入或 300 個基點的增長，這就是展期，其中大部分是美國生態學。

The next question comes from Noah Kaye of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Noah Kaye。

So with the US Ecology outperformance of $50 million, can you give us a breakdown of how much of that outperformance was price versus volume? And then maybe you can tell us what you're expecting in terms of ES segment growth specifically for 2023.

因此，在 US Ecology 超過 5000 萬美元的情況下，您能否向我們詳細說明價格與數量之間的差異有多大？然後也許您可以告訴我們您對 2023 年 ES 細分市場增長的期望。

Yes. It was a mix of both price and volume, but more pricing to come, right? We've taken a lot of pricing action, but we still have some contracted portion of that business and fully seen that. So you're seeing both the cross-sell that we talked about, and you're seeing the pricing hit with really strong performance. And the plans for 2023, that business is performing ahead of our plan, more broadly about the US Ecology acquisition. The broader ES space, I think, is going to be a very positive contributor.

是的。這是價格和數量的混合體，但還會有更多定價，對吧？我們已經採取了很多定價行動，但我們仍然有該業務的一些合同部分並且充分看到了這一點。因此，您既看到了我們談到的交叉銷售，又看到了定價受到非常強勁的影響。以及 2023 年的計劃，該業務的表現超出了我們的計劃，更廣泛地說是關於美國生態學的收購。我認為，更廣泛的 ES 空間將成為一個非常積極的貢獻者。

Yes. So if you think about -- no, I was just going to add. A good portion of the growth, right, that you're going to see year-over-year is coming vis-a-vis the acquisition rollover. But if you think about total contribution from an organic perspective, right, we're expecting 50 basis points on total revenue. So that's about, call it, $70 million, and that would be just at the point when US Ecology anniversaries forward. So that's still kind of a high single-digit type organic growth.

是的。所以如果你考慮——不，我只是想補充一下。對，你將看到的同比增長的很大一部分來自收購展期。但如果你從有機的角度考慮總貢獻，對，我們預計總收入為 50 個基點。所以這大約是 7000 萬美元，而這恰好是美國生態學週年紀念日到來之時。所以這仍然是一種高個位數的有機增長。

That's very helpful. And then since you mentioned the synergies were tracking ahead of plan, can you quantify that for us? And I guess, any chance you could give us an updated cost synergies number as to where you think this will get to within the time frame?

這很有幫助。然後既然你提到協同效應正在提前計劃，你能為我們量化嗎？而且我想，您是否有機會向我們提供更新的成本協同效應數字，以說明您認為這將在時間範圍內達到什麼水平？

Yes. So just to give you an idea, when we actually provided the guidance when we closed the deal, we said we thought we'd get about $5 million worth of synergies in 2022. We actually got closer to $13 million, $14 million. So you can see nice outperformance there. And a lot of that was just actually getting the integration activities done quicker than we originally anticipated.

是的。所以只是給你一個想法，當我們在完成交易時實際提供指導時，我們說我們認為我們將在 2022 年獲得價值約 500 萬美元的協同效應。我們實際上接近 1300 萬美元，1400 萬美元。所以你可以在那裡看到不錯的表現。其中很多實際上只是比我們原先預期的更快地完成了集成活動。

And we said total synergies would be $40 million. Cost synergy was $40 million. I think that number wound up closer to $50 million.

我們說總協同效應為 4000 萬美元。成本協同效應為 4000 萬美元。我認為這個數字接近 5000 萬美元。

The next question comes from Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

I want to just focus on the M&A there in the $500 million guide. What drives your target for $500 million? Is that on a leverage basis that you'd like to keep yourselves close to? Or is it more just your best guess as to what kind of deals in your -- in the target areas that you want to do are available in 2023?

我只想關注 5 億美元指南中的併購。是什麼驅使您實現 5 億美元的目標？這是你想讓自己接近的槓桿基礎嗎？或者，這只是您對 2023 年在您想要進行的目標區域中可以進行的交易類型的最佳猜測？

I'd say it is based on a passionate view about intrinsic value, right, and driving intrinsic value over time and conservatism, right? So we never want to put out a number that people go and they have to hit, and therefore, we start chasing deals. So I want the team to feel comfortable at any point in time passing on a given deal because it doesn't mean a return criteria or there's a set of terms or business conditions or practices that we're not going to want to be owners of over time.

我會說它是基於對內在價值的熱情觀點，對，隨著時間的推移和保守主義推動內在價值，對吧？所以我們永遠不想給出一個人們必須去點擊的數字，因此，我們開始追逐交易。因此，我希望團隊在任何時間點都能放心地通過給定的交易，因為這並不意味著退貨標準，也不是我們不想擁有的一組條款或業務條件或做法隨著時間的推移。

And so I think we've always put out a number over the last 3 or 4 years, I think you've seen a pretty steady beat against that number. My expectations for the team, I think, are slightly higher than that. But we always want, again, put out a conservative numbers the team feels no pressure to reach.

因此，我認為我們在過去 3 或 4 年中一直給出了一個數字，我認為你已經看到了對這個數字的相當穩定的打擊。我認為，我對團隊的期望略高於此。但我們總是希望再次提出一個保守的數字，讓團隊感到沒有壓力。

And has there been any shift in valuations, be it with higher interest rates, be it with more deals having been done? Is there more difficulty? Is there -- has valuations come off? Has availability changed? In other words, the pipeline that you look at going into 2023, is it very much different than what you saw in 2022, excluding obviously, US Ecology?

估值是否有任何變化，無論是利率更高，還是完成了更多交易？有沒有更大的難度？有沒有 - 估值下降了嗎？可用性有變化嗎？換句話說，你看到的進入 2023 年的管道與你在 2022 年看到的有很大不同，顯然不包括美國生態嗎？

No. Pipeline is very strong. We've got a mix of small- and medium-sized deals across Recycling & Solid Waste and ES, right, and that's kind of at different stages in the process and feel good about that. The premiums or the multiples are still kind of hanging in the same Zip Code because we're looking at premium assets. We're not just buying revenue. We're very particular buyers, and we want to get something that's quality.

不，管道非常強大。我們在 Recycling & Solid Waste 和 ES 之間進行了一系列中小型交易，對吧，在這個過程的不同階段，我們對此感覺很好。溢價或倍數仍然掛在同一個郵政編碼中，因為我們正在尋找溢價資產。我們不只是購買收入。我們是非常挑剔的買家，我們希望買到質量上乘的東西。

And one of the first questions one has asked is why would we do this ourselves? And if it's something like a residential subscription business or a temporary roll-off business, we should go get that with our sales team, not pay a premium for that. So we're looking for infrastructure. We're looking for route-based businesses with customer contracts that we know that we will integrate in the business and drive value over time.

人們提出的第一個問題是我們為什麼要自己做這件事？如果它是住宅訂閱業務或臨時轉售業務，我們應該與我們的銷售團隊一起獲得，而不是為此支付額外費用。所以我們正在尋找基礎設施。我們正在尋找具有客戶合同的基於路線的業務，我們知道我們將整合到業務中並隨著時間的推移推動價值。

Okay. And just the last one here. Just on your guidance, I know you had, had a double-digit in there. You kind of walked it back last quarter. You've kind of brought it back again confidently here this quarter. Just what's changed your view here that gives you the confidence behind this guide, that you perhaps kind of didn't have when you had the third quarter report?

好的。而這裡只是最後一個。就在你的指導下，我知道你在那裡有兩位數。上個季度你有點退縮了。您在本季度在這裡再次自信地把它帶回來了。究竟是什麼改變了您的觀點，讓您對本指南充滿信心，而您在獲得第三季度報告時可能沒有這種信心？

Well, maybe a slightly different view of the history, right? We never gave an official guidance. We said we had line of sight at one point to double digit, right? That was in a different commodity price environment. And so given the commodity market being depressed for 6 to 9 months, that certainly gave us a different outlook, right, just based on the math of the commodity prices.

好吧，也許對歷史的看法略有不同，對吧？我們從未給出官方指導。我們說我們在一點上有兩位數的視線，對嗎？那是在不同的商品價格環境中。因此，鑑於大宗商品市場低迷了 6 到 9 個月，這肯定給了我們不同的前景，正確的，只是基於大宗商品價格的數學計算。

And I think we've talked about here a high single-digit number going forward. Now if we end up doing more M&A early in the year and that has the year impact and we get to double digits, we certainly could, but I think we've been pretty consistent with how we've approached it.

而且我認為我們已經在這裡討論了一個高個位數的數字。現在，如果我們最終在今年年初進行更多的併購，這會產生年度影響並且我們達到兩位數，我們當然可以，但我認為我們與我們的處理方式非常一致。

Yes. And the other thing I would just add to that as well is that on the October call, we said that we've got a perspective that we're going to achieve high single-digit growth. And if you look at the midpoint of everything we put out there, it's high single-digit growth. So to Jon's point, I would sit there and say it is exactly in line with where we thought we would be in October.

是的。我還要補充的另一件事是，在 10 月份的電話會議上，我們表示我們有一個觀點，即我們將實現高個位數的增長。如果你看看我們在那裡推出的所有東西的中點，它就是高個位數的增長。因此，就喬恩的觀點而言，我會坐在那裡說這與我們 10 月份的預期完全一致。

The next question comes from Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托尼卡普蘭。

Perfect. I wanted to ask first on capital expenditures. I know 4Q is usually sometimes seasonally high, and this quarter seemed maybe particularly high. I was wondering if that was related to the asset management system in the polymer centers, or if there was something else in there. And how we should be thinking about CapEx for '23?

完美的。我想先問一下資本支出。我知道第四季度通常有時會出現季節性高潮，而這個季度似乎特別高。我想知道這是否與聚合物中心的資產管理系統有關，或者那裡是否還有其他東西。我們應該如何考慮 23 年的資本支出？

Yes, certainly investing to grow the business, right? We're always disciplined but never afraid to spend that money. One of the bigger drivers of that was the second polymer center that we're putting in the Midwest. We just -- we've seen so much demand for the offtake of our first one that gives us a lot of confidence that the market is really getting value and need that product. And the returns in our business case, we think, are going to be north of what we originally pro forma-ed. So that gave us the confidence to accelerate that investment moving forward.

是的，當然是投資發展業務，對吧？我們總是自律，但從不害怕花這筆錢。其中一個更大的驅動因素是我們在中西部建立的第二個聚合物中心。我們只是 - 我們已經看到對我們第一個產品的承購需求如此之大，這讓我們充滿信心，市場真正獲得了價值並需要該產品。我們認為，我們的業務案例中的回報將超出我們最初預計的回報。因此，這使我們有信心加快推進投資。

Yes. And the other thing is, we talked that there were some supply chain disruptions throughout the year, impacted things like trucks and some of the heavy equipment. And we actually were able to take or [seed], take title of those assets in the fourth quarter. So as you think about building the '23 plan, most likely, we'll be more back-end loaded like you've seen in the last couple of years, but maybe not to the extent that you saw in '22.

是的。另一件事是，我們談到全年供應鏈中斷，影響了卡車和一些重型設備。我們實際上能夠在第四季度獲得或[種子]，獲得這些資產的所有權。因此，當您考慮構建 23 年計劃時，我們很可能會像您在過去幾年中看到的那樣增加後端負載，但可能不會達到您在 22 年看到的程度。

Super helpful. And I wanted to ask on volumes. I know you gave the 50 to 100 basis points for '23 of volume. I wanted to just ask sort of what you're seeing with regard to commercial and industrial. I know some of your competitors talked about like a little bit of a softness in 4Q, but maybe a little bit better in January. I wanted to hear your experience on that.

超級有幫助。我想問一下數量。我知道你為 23 年的交易量給出了 50 到 100 個基點。我只想問一下您對商業和工業的看法。我知道你的一些競爭對手在第四季度談到了一點點疲軟，但在一月份可能會好一點。我想听聽你的經驗。

Yes, there's different moving pieces for sure. Obviously, there's been a little bit of a slowdown in the construction market as you've seen housing starts kind of pull back in the second half of last year, and we've certainly baked in some softening of that into the 2023 environment. But listen, the industrial market is very, very strong right now, right? You saw the consumer number this morning. I mean the consumer is engaged.

是的，肯定有不同的移動部件。顯然，建築市場出現了一些放緩，因為你已經看到去年下半年房屋開工率有所回落，而且我們肯定已經將這種情況的一些軟化融入了 2023 年的環境中。但是聽著，工業市場現在非常非常強勁，對吧？你今天早上看到了消費者號碼。我的意思是消費者參與了。

So we still see lots of economic activity. Travel and leisure, right, is kind of bursting at the seams. So we remain mindful, right, that there's certainly recession talks on the environment, but we're a pretty broad-based barometer of the economy, and we're seeing a lot of strength right now.

所以我們仍然看到很多經濟活動。旅行和休閒，對，有點讓人欲罷不能。所以我們仍然注意，對，肯定有關於環境的衰退談判，但我們是一個基礎廣泛的經濟晴雨表，我們現在看到了很多力量。

Yes. And even though we're seeing a little bit of softness on some of the construction activity, we're still seeing above-average price. If you take a look in the temporary large container business, we're nearly 9% priced during the fourth quarter.

是的。即使我們看到一些建築活動有點疲軟，我們仍然看到高於平均水平的價格。如果你看一下臨時的大型集裝箱業務，我們在第四季度的定價接近 9%。

The next question comes from Kevin Chiang of CIBC.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Kevin Chiang。

I was just wondering, when you talk about the pricing initiatives within ES, just wondering what percentage of your revenue do you think you need to reprice to get to the levels you wanted? And how long do you think it takes to kind of get through all of that?

我只是想知道，當您談論 ES 內部的定價計劃時，只是想知道您認為需要重新定價收入的多少百分比才能達到您想要的水平？您認為完成所有這些需要多長時間？

Well, we'll look at every dollar of revenue on every customer and really try to understand -- again, we look at pricing with 2 lens. One is, from a customer and an insight standpoint, right, what does the market bear? What does our offer have from a value standpoint versus our competitors?

好吧，我們將查看每個客戶的每一美元收入，並真正嘗試理解——再次，我們使用 2 個鏡頭查看定價。一是，站在客戶和洞察的角度，對吧，市場承受什麼？從價值的角度來看，與我們的競爭對手相比，我們的報價有何優勢？

And then we also want to look on the internal side and say, what is our cost? We're including a capital charge and make sure that we're getting a fair return on that. And so we're going to go systematically through every customer and every dollar of revenue. And I think the encouraging thing is we put out some double-digit price increases, and we're seeing it stick, right?

然後我們還想看看內部，我們的成本是多少？我們包括資本費用，並確保我們從中獲得公平的回報。因此，我們將系統地研究每一位客戶和每一美元的收入。我認為令人鼓舞的是我們提出了一些兩位數的價格上漲，而且我們看到它堅持下去，對吧？

Customers are really valuing the integrated offering. And keep in mind, whatever they spend with us is a very small percentage of their cost structure. And so safety and speed and sustainability and our digital tools and all those things that we're investing in, right, those are big differentiators that allow that price to stick.

客戶非常重視集成產品。請記住，無論他們在我們這里花多少錢，都只佔他們成本結構的很小一部分。因此，安全、速度、可持續性以及我們的數字工具以及我們正在投資的所有這些東西，對，這些都是讓價格保持不變的重要差異化因素。

All right. That makes a ton of sense. And then I apologize if you've given this number before, but when you look out longer term and you're through some of the cost synergies and some of the revenue upside opportunities, do you have a targeted ES adjusted EBITDA margin that you're thinking about? You did 17.5% in -- or roughly 17.5% in 2022. Does this get to the mid-20s when you're kind of through many of these initiatives?

好的。這很有道理。然後我很抱歉，如果你之前已經給出了這個數字，但是當你放眼長遠並且你正在經歷一些成本協同效應和一些收入上昇機會時，你是否有目標 ES 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率，你'重新考慮？你在 2022 年完成了 17.5% 或大約 17.5%。當你通過許多這些舉措時，這會達到 20 多歲嗎？

Yes. I think what we're -- listen, over time, long term, I think these businesses converge in terms of returns. I think you'll get free cash flow conversion to get there first because this is a slightly different OpEx, CapEx trade-off in this part of the business. And then over time, I think -- for a longer period of time, I think getting the margin to converge, I don't think is out of sight or out of reach as well.

是的。我認為我們是什麼——聽著，隨著時間的推移，從長遠來看，我認為這些企業在回報方面趨於一致。我認為您將首先獲得自由現金流轉換，因為這在這部分業務中的 OpEx、CapEx 權衡略有不同。然後隨著時間的推移，我認為 - 在更長的一段時間內，我認為讓邊際收斂，我認為這也不是遙不可及的。

Now that's not going to happen overnight, right? We are going to kind of ratably, right, systematically take this up. So I think the goal in the next 4 or 5 years to get that in the mid-20s is very reachable.

現在這不會在一夜之間發生，對吧？我們將以一種合理的、正確的、系統的方式來處理這個問題。所以我認為在未來 4 或 5 年內在 20 年代中期實現這一目標是非常容易實現的。

The next question comes from Michael Hoffman of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Michael Hoffman。

Brian, are we at about a $1.6 billion run rate in ES revenues when I roll in the M&A? And then what does that $1.6 billion grow organically? I just trying to put all the pieces together from your transcript, and I think I have myself a little confused.

布賴恩，當我進行併購時，我們的 ES 收入運行率是否約為 16 億美元？那麼這 16 億美元的有機增長是什麼？我只是想把你的成績單中的所有部分放在一起，我想我自己有點困惑。

We're probably closer, Michael, to -- in the $1.5 billion range, a little over $1.5 billion. But organically, like I said earlier, we're thinking that's a 7% to 8% organic type grower here in the near term, and with opportunities for even some of the additional cross-sell opportunities to be additive to that.

邁克爾，我們可能更接近 - 在 15 億美元的範圍內，略高於 15 億美元。但有機地，就像我之前說的那樣，我們認為短期內有機類型種植者的比例為 7% 到 8%，甚至有機會增加一些額外的交叉銷售機會。

So -- okay. So the following that then, in your margin for the whole year, 29.2%, what do you think the Solid Waste business and the Environmental Services business do individually to merge together?

所以——好吧。那麼接下來，在你全年的利潤率中，29.2%，你認為固體廢物業務和環境服務業務單獨合併在一起會做什麼？

So in the Recycling & Solid Waste business, we're expecting overall about 30 basis points of margin expansion, right? And in that business, we have to overcome the 30 basis point headwind from commodity prices. So the underlying business is growing kind of 60 to 70 basis points.

因此，在回收和固體廢物業務中，我們預計總體利潤率將增長約 30 個基點，對嗎？在該業務中，我們必須克服商品價格帶來的 30 個基點逆風。因此，基礎業務增長了 60 到 70 個基點。

Now in the Environmental Solutions business, we're expecting 100 basis points of margin improvement, and there is the acquisition roll over of US Ecology, which is kind of a negative 70 on that portion when you compare it to what we had in the Gulf. So we're expecting margin expansion in the underlying business there of 170 basis points. The reason why that only comes to 10 basis points overall is we just have a greater mix or a greater percentage of ES business in '23 than we did in '22.

現在在環境解決方案業務中，我們預計利潤率將提高 100 個基點，並且美國生態學的收購展期，當您將其與我們在海灣地區的業務進行比較時，這部分利潤率是負 70 .因此，我們預計基礎業務的利潤率將擴大 170 個基點。總體上只有 10 個基點的原因是我們在 23 年的 ES 業務比 22 年有更多的組合或更大的比例。

Yes. Yes. I get that. And then can you bridge for us the $1.724 billion of free cash in '22 to get to the midpoint of your guide? What is the cash interest, the cash tax, the incentive comp above plan? And then I'm assuming everything else is made up by organic growth productivity.

是的。是的。我明白了。然後你能為我們橋接 22 年的 17.24 億美元自由現金以達到你指南的中點嗎？上述計劃的現金利息、現金稅、激勵補償是多少？然後我假設其他一切都是由有機增長生產力構成的。

Yes. Yes, let me give you a couple of pieces of that, certainly. So interest -- and I'm going to give you some pretax numbers. And for argument's sake, you can just sit there and take, call it, 70% of it. You do the after tax. But interest up $90 million, right? So that's an increased outflow there.

是的。是的，讓我給你一些，當然。很感興趣——我會給你一些稅前數字。為了爭論起見，你可以坐在那裡接受，稱之為 70%。你做稅後。但是利息增加了 9000 萬美元，對吧？所以那裡的流出量增加了。

Incentive comp is about a $35 million outflow compared to target levels. And then bonus depreciation, you wouldn't tax effect the impact of bonus depreciation, but that's about a $35 million increase in cash taxes.

與目標水平相比，激勵補償約流出 3500 萬美元。然後是獎金折舊，你不會對獎金折舊的影響徵稅，但這大約增加了 3500 萬美元的現金稅。

Okay. And then...

好的。進而...

So when you take all those pieces, that creates -- now I'm going to kind of flip a little bit to conversion, and that creates, call it, about a 300 basis point headwind to conversion, all of which being offset by just the EBITDA growth in the business as well as some benefits in working capital, some of those benefits being unlocked. We talked about finishing the finance and procurement modules during '22, and we think that there's an opportunity, in particular, on the DPO side to drive improvements in working capital.

因此，當你考慮所有這些部分時，這會產生 - 現在我要稍微翻轉一下轉換，這會產生大約 300 個基點的轉換逆風，所有這些都被抵消了業務的 EBITDA 增長以及營運資本的一些好處，其中一些好處正在釋放。我們談到在 22 年期間完成財務和採購模塊，我們認為有機會，特別是在 DPO 方面推動營運資本的改善。

Okay. And then just squeezing one in, sorry. The $125 per ton, how much of that has to rely on OCC moving? And what would your target be for OCC to make the $125 in your guide?

好的。然後只是擠一個進去，抱歉。每噸 125 美元，其中有多少必須依賴 OCC 移動？ OCC 在您的指南中賺取 125 美元的目標是什麼？

Well, I mean, just to put it in perspective, right, OCC, fiber, right, represents about 70% of our basket of goods, right? So most of this, we are expecting to come more on the OCC side. But even just to put it into -- all of it into perspective, if you take a look at what we're expecting from a guide perspective compared to current prices, it's a relatively modest recovery, right? That's $30 million worth of EBITDA and about 20 basis points to margin, $20 million of free cash flow, if things were to stay at current levels.

好吧，我的意思是，從正確的角度來看，OCC，纖維，對，代表了我們一籃子商品的 70%，對吧？所以大部分，我們期望更多地出現在 OCC 方面。但即使只是把它放在——所有這一切的角度來看，如果你從指導的角度看一下我們對當前價格的預期，與當前價格相比，這是一個相對溫和的複蘇，對吧？如果事情保持在當前水平，那是價值 3000 萬美元的 EBITDA 和大約 20 個基點的利潤率，2000 萬美元的自由現金流。

The next question comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Brian, if we just go back to your margin cadence discussion, the headwinds in the first quarter, really, the first half, that implies we're going to be exiting the fourth quarter of '23 with margins up something like 150 basis points year-over-year heading into '24.

布賴恩，如果我們回到你的保證金節奏討論，第一季度的逆風，真的，上半年，這意味著我們將退出 23 年第四季度，利潤率每年上升 150 個基點左右- 進入 24 年。

So I'm wondering, are we setting up for '24 to be an outsized margin expansion year because we're essentially making up for a lost year from a commodity price impact in '23? Anything that you'd add to that bridge as we think about what the margin progression might look like.

所以我想知道，我們是否將 24 年設置為利潤率大幅擴張的一年，因為我們基本上是在彌補 23 年商品價格影響造成的損失年？當我們考慮保證金進展可能是什麼樣子時，您可以添加到該橋樑的任何內容。

Sure. And a couple of things, Jerry. I mean, you've got 2 variables, right, when you take a look at that. You have the -- what we're expecting in '23, but also what happened in '22, right? So we're expecting commodity prices in '23 to be at the highest point of the year. They were at the lowest point in '22, so you can't just go to the margin expansion.

當然。還有幾件事，傑里。我的意思是，當您查看時，您有 2 個變量，對吧。你有——我們在 23 年所期待的，還有 22 年發生的事情，對吧？因此，我們預計 23 年的商品價格將達到今年的最高點。他們處於 22 年的最低點，所以你不能只是去擴大利潤率。

But yes, exiting the year in '24, we think it's going to be kind of a nice jump-off point heading into '24. But I wouldn't just look at the overall margin expansion because you've got 2 years in your math there that you got to take into consideration.

但是，是的，在 24 年結束這一年，我們認為這將是進入 24 年的一個很好的起點。但我不會只看整體利潤率的增長，因為你在數學上有 2 年的時間，你必須考慮到這一點。

Sure. But you're going to have the same comp benefit in the first half of '24, hopefully. And if we think about the profitability of the recycling business in the fourth quarter with this ultra-low recycled cardboard prices. Can you just update us on what was the margin profile of the business, roughly, just so we can get a feel for where it's troughing in the cycle, given all the work you've done there?

當然。但希望在 24 年的上半年，您將獲得相同的補償收益。如果我們考慮第四季度回收業務的盈利能力，以及這種超低迴收紙板價格。鑑於您在那裡所做的所有工作，您能否粗略地向我們介紹一下該業務的利潤率概況，以便我們了解它在周期中的低谷位置？

You're talking about on the recycling side of the business?

您是在談論業務的回收方面嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's still a profitable business at these levels and still an attractive return. So again, we would expect -- through the cycle, we talked about we expect these depressed prices to be somewhat transitory and, again, return closer in line to a 10-year average. Not even back to the levels it was when it was over $200 a ton on our basket of goods.

在這些水平上它仍然是一項有利可圖的業務，並且仍然是一個有吸引力的回報。因此，我們再次期望——在整個週期中，我們談到我們預計這些低迷的價格將是暫時的，並且再次接近 10 年平均水平。甚至沒有回到我們一籃子商品每噸超過 200 美元時的水平。

Super. And can I ask around the gas part of the business? Nice little bonus we got from the EPA in terms of eRINs. How much gas to electric power do you folks generate in terms of your share of the power that you generate? And what's your take on what's a reasonable value capture opportunity for you and your peers?

極好的。我可以問一下公司的天然氣部分嗎？就 eRIN 而言，我們從 EPA 獲得了不錯的小紅利。就你們產生的電力份額而言，你們產生了多少天然氣到電力？對於您和您的同行來說，什麼是合理的價值獲取機會，您怎麼看？

Yes. Of our existing projects, the vast majority are gas electricity. Now the -- where RINs have gone, all of the new projects in the pipeline were contemplated to be gas powered and/or methane RNG. The great news with our partnership with BP, we've got option value, right?

是的。在我們現有的項目中，絕大多數是燃氣發電。現在——在 RIN 消失的地方，管道中的所有新項目都計劃採用天然氣和/或甲烷 RNG。我們與 BP 合作的好消息是，我們有期權價值，對吧？

eRINs coming online. And we're both very open-minded to understanding where those markets move and the local geography and even places where we make power on fleet to figure out whether we want to convert some of those opportunities rather than RNG to go to electricity as well. But we see it as, over time, a benefit for us because it will have 2 pathways.

eRIN 上線。我們都非常願意了解這些市場的發展方向和當地的地理位置，甚至是我們為車隊提供動力的地方，以弄清楚我們是否想將其中一些機會而不是 RNG 也轉化為電力。但隨著時間的推移，我們認為它對我們有好處，因為它有兩條途徑。

The next question comes from David Manthey of Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 David Manthey。

My question is regarding residential volumes that have inched up here in the last couple of quarters. Is that a trend you expect to continue this year? And when you look at that 1% overall midpoint volume outlook, does that contemplate commercial container volumes being flat or negative at any point in 2023?

我的問題是關於過去幾個季度這裡小幅上升的住宅量。您希望今年繼續這種趨勢嗎？當您查看 1% 的整體中點量前景時，這是否意味著商業集裝箱量在 2023 年的任何時候持平或負增長？

No. I mean what you're seeing mostly on the residential is some relatively larger contracts. You're seeing that in the numbers. So that's expected to anniversary in '23. So we don't expect that to continue throughout the year. And yes, when you take a look at our volume cadence, we expect that small container will remain positive, right, throughout '23.

不，我的意思是你在住宅上看到的主要是一些相對較大的合同。你在數字中看到了這一點。所以這預計是 23 年的周年紀念日。因此，我們預計這種情況不會持續一整年。是的，當你看一下我們的體積節奏時，我們預計小容器將在整個 23 年保持積極，對吧。

When you take a look at overall volumes, we think to have our highest volume performance early in the year. And again, that's a step down throughout but remaining positive in all 4 quarters.

當您查看整體銷量時，我們認為今年年初的銷量表現最高。再一次，這在整個 4 個季度中都保持積極的態度。

I'd say residential, that's been, I'd say, over the last decade, the most disappointing part of the business in terms of where margin and return has gone and that hasn't expanded at the same rate as the other businesses. There's a lot of reasons for that, with commodity prices and inflation and everything else.

我想說住宅，我想說，在過去十年中，就利潤率和回報的去向而言，住宅是該業務中最令人失望的部分，並且沒有以與其他業務相同的速度擴張。這有很多原因，商品價格和通貨膨脹以及其他一切。

But listen, we don't do work for free, right? We put upward pressure, right, on all those contracts and look at those contracts just like we were an acquisition, right? We're going to put capital into it and what type of return do we get against that. And if we can't meet our return thresholds on that, we won't do the work.

但是聽著，我們不免費工作，對吧？我們對所有這些合同施加了上行壓力，就像我們在收購一樣看待這些合同，對吧？我們將投入資金，我們將獲得什麼樣的回報。如果我們不能滿足我們的回報門檻，我們就不會做這項工作。

The next question is from Kyle White of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的凱爾懷特。

Just curious what you're seeing on open market pricing heading into 2023 as inflation starts to come down and maybe there's a bit more uncertainty regarding economy and volumes going forward. Are you seeing any change in behavior from maybe some of the smaller competitors in this environment relative to last year?

只是好奇你在進入 2023 年時看到的公開市場定價，因為通貨膨脹開始下降，而且未來的經濟和交易量可能會有更多的不確定性。與去年相比，在這種環境下，您是否看到一些較小的競爭對手的行為有任何變化？

No. Last year, we put out the highest level of pricing we ever have in small container in the open market, and we had the highest percentage of retention of that price that we've ever had in our history, which is really a staggering number. I think it speaks to, right, the value of our service that we're providing. It also speaks to the broader context with everything else in plating.

不，去年，我們在公開市場上推出了小集裝箱的最高定價水平，而且我們保留該價格的百分比是我們歷史上最高的，這真是令人震驚數字。我認為這說明了我們所提供服務的價值。它還涉及電鍍中其他所有內容的更廣泛背景。

Those numbers were quite consistent across the quarters, right, in terms of our ability to retain price, right? And we're seeing strength here in the early part of the year on that.

就我們保留價格的能力而言，這些數字在各個季度都非常一致，對吧？我們在今年年初看到了這方面的實力。

So we're mindful of the environment. But look, at all of these smaller competitors, right, they have truck costs that are going up. They need to buy new equipment after some supply chain challenges, right? They have labor costs that are going up. So they need the price to cover their costs, which I think is support of a broader pricing environment.

所以我們關注環境。但是看看所有這些較小的競爭對手，對吧，他們的卡車成本正在上升。在經歷了一些供應鏈挑戰之後，他們需要購買新設備，對嗎？他們的勞動力成本正在上升。所以他們需要價格來覆蓋他們的成本，我認為這是對更廣泛的定價環境的支持。

Yes, that makes sense. And then on leverage, how are you thinking about leverage in this environment? What's sort of the right target for you before investors should expect meaningful capital return through buybacks?

是的，這是有道理的。然後在槓桿方面，您如何看待這種環境下的槓桿？在投資者期望通過回購獲得有意義的資本回報之前，什麼樣的目標適合您？

Yes. We've talked about kind of that sweet spot for us being right around 3x. We're a little bit over that right now, but we expect to be there in the next, call it, 6 months, at which point then we would look to kind of return to that normal level of looking at the repurchases and so on and so forth.

是的。我們已經談到了我們在 3 倍左右的最佳位置。我們現在有點過頭了，但我們希望在接下來的 6 個月內到達那裡，屆時我們會希望回到正常的回購水平等等等等。

The next question comes from Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。

I certainly appreciate the level of details of your 2023 expectations. I think a lot of puts and takes in this environment. So it might be helpful if you could just outline the areas where you kind of see the greatest source of upside, inflation moderating, some tech investments. And then on the flip side, where you see the greatest risk to maybe hitting these targets as well.

我當然感謝您對 2023 年期望的詳細程度。我認為在這種環境下有很多投入和投入。因此，如果您可以概述您認為最大的上行來源、通脹放緩和一些技術投資的領域，這可能會有所幫助。然後在另一面，您也看到可能達到這些目標的最大風險。

Yes. From an upside perspective, and we mentioned this earlier, is that we are expecting inflation to remain persistent throughout '23. And so again, Jon just talked about the fact that we're pricing at higher levels in '23 -- early in '23 than we did even in '22 because we expect inflation to remain sticky. So if that does come down, that is certainly an opportunity in order to sit there and to drive better performance than we anticipated.

是的。從好的方面來看，我們之前提到過這一點，我們預計通貨膨脹將在整個 23 年持續存在。因此，喬恩再次談到我們在 23 年的定價水平高於 23 年的定價水平，甚至比 22 年的定價還要高，因為我們預計通脹將保持粘性。因此，如果確實下降了，那肯定是一個機會，可以坐在那裡並推動比我們預期更好的表現。

But you do have to remember, some of that inflation on wages, and wages typically go in annually. So once you put that wage out in the marketplace, you're not pulling that back. So there is some stickiness to the inflation, but certainly, as it relates to some third-party costs, some of the maintenance-related expenses, transportation expenses. If those come in, that would certainly be a source of upside.

但你必須記住，工資中的一些通貨膨脹，工資通常每年都會增加。所以一旦你把工資放到市場上，你就不會收回。所以通貨膨脹有一定的粘性，但肯定會涉及到一些第三方成本，一些與維護相關的費用，運輸費用。如果這些進來，那肯定會成為上漲的來源。

Great. And then on the downside?

偉大的。然後是缺點？

Sorry. We just talked a little bit about recycled commodity prices. Again, we've expected a recovery, but we've also dimensionalized it for you so you realize it's a relatively modest recovery that we're expecting. But if they stay at current levels, that would be a little bit of some downside relative to our expectations.

對不起。我們剛剛談到了回收商品的價格。同樣，我們預計會出現復甦，但我們也為您進行了維度化，因此您會意識到這是我們預期的相對溫和的複蘇。但如果它們保持在當前水平，相對於我們的預期，這將有點不利。

And I just said the broader macro environment, obviously, we've been through a pandemic and war at the doorstep of Europe and China virtually shutting down and supply chain challenges and inflation. So I think we're prepared for uncertainty in a dynamic environment. Again, we're running the business, not just for the quarter or the year, we're running it through the cycle and making decisions accordingly. But we're mindful that we may have to adjust or adapt the business if do things emerge.

我剛才說了更廣泛的宏觀環境，很明顯，我們經歷了歐洲和中國家門口的大流行和戰爭，幾乎關閉了供應鏈挑戰和通貨膨脹。所以我認為我們已經為動態環境中的不確定性做好了準備。同樣，我們正在經營業務，而不僅僅是季度或年度，我們正在整個週期中運行它並做出相應的決策。但我們注意到，如果出現問題，我們可能不得不調整或調整業務。

Absolutely. And then just on the second polymer center going up, starting to go up this year. Maybe you could talk a little bit about some of the initial KPIs or returns you're seeing from -- or expect to see just given the demand from your first center and kind of what drove you to decide to open up the second here.

絕對地。然後就在第二個聚合物中心上升，今年開始上升。也許你可以談談一些最初的 KPI 或你從中看到的回報——或者期望看到你的第一個中心的需求以及促使你決定在這裡開設第二個的原因。

Yes. Across, we think we're going to have at least 4 centers across the U.S. We think when they all get up and running at scale, it's kind of a $250 million incremental revenue business for us. We think the EBITDA margins are going to be certainly north of 30%, right? Very attractive IRRs on those investments, and I think we're going to beat that pro forma, right? And we know from the conversations we've had and the pricing that we're getting right now, we're starting to take orders, obviously, for the center in Las Vegas. I'm very confident we're going to beat those numbers in the pro forma.

是的。在整個美國，我們認為我們將至少擁有 4 個中心。我們認為，當它們全部啟動並大規模運行時，這對我們來說是一項 2.5 億美元的增量收入業務。我們認為 EBITDA 利潤率肯定會超過 30%，對嗎？這些投資的 IRR 非常有吸引力，我認為我們會打敗這個備考，對吧？從我們的談話和我們現在得到的定價中我們知道，我們顯然開始接受拉斯維加斯中心的訂單。我非常有信心我們會在備考中擊敗這些數字。

The next question comes from Michael Feniger of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

I understand that you guys have been pricing ahead of cost, and there's been a lot more discipline in the industry. But is there like a step function change in terms of how Republic is pricing from a few years ago? I mean, you guys went through some years of intentional shedding some business. I'm just wondering if the quality of the business now, you feel that you can have a wider price versus cost spread than maybe the Republic Services a few years ago?

我知道你們一直在先於成本定價，而且這個行業有更多的紀律。但是，就 Republic 幾年前的定價方式而言，是否存在類似階躍函數的變化？我的意思是，你們經歷了幾年有意放棄一些業務。我只是想知道現在的業務質量，你覺得你可以比幾年前的 Republic Services 有更大的價格與成本價差嗎？

Yes. I think it's a good question, Michael. Certainly, and you highlighted it. Certainly, customer mix is a hidden element or hidden factor in being able to get price. And we went through some intentional shedding, right, which has negative drag on our volume for a few quarters when you look a few years back. The quality of our revenue is much higher than it was historically, and we feel good about that.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題，邁克爾。當然，你強調了它。當然，客戶組合是能夠獲得價格的隱藏因素或隱藏因素。我們經歷了一些有意的流失，對，當你回顧幾年時，這對我們幾個季度的銷量產生了負面影響。我們的收入質量遠高於歷史水平，我們對此感覺良好。

And that's all the way across from national accounts to small container to getting out the last remain broker work out of the system to municipal and getting a fair escalator into those contracts. So I think the overall health of our pricing across the portfolio, well, not perfect, of course, but it's much, much better than it was a few years ago.

這就是從國民賬戶到小型容器，再到將最後剩餘的經紀人工作從系統中轉移到市政部門，並在這些合同中獲得公平的自動扶梯。因此，我認為我們整個產品組合定價的整體健康狀況，當然，並不完美，但比幾年前要好得多。

And then you combine that with the capture and the tools that we have to really start to grind out a few extra bps here and there across our 13 million customers, who have understanding and willingness to pay.

然後你將它與捕獲和工具結合起來，我們必須真正開始在我們的 1300 萬客戶中在這里和那裡磨出一些額外的 bps，他們有理解並願意支付。

And then on the other side of that, with the RISE platform, driving productivity and changing our cost position in the business. So when you've got a healthier customer mix, right, and better ability to price with a cost structure that I think is healthy and getting healthier. I think that does create the context for continued margin expansion over time.

另一方面，借助 RISE 平台，提高生產力並改變我們在業務中的成本地位。因此，當你擁有更健康的客戶組合時，正確的，更好的定價能力以及我認為健康且越來越健康的成本結構。我認為這確實為隨著時間的推移持續擴大利潤率創造了條件。

Great. And Brian, you touched on it with the question earlier, but just to dig a little deeper. Can you actually talk about the cost inflation, how that kind of trended through the fourth quarter and what you're seeing in early 2023? What you guys are kind of embedding there? Because I think you're saying you're not really embedding a rollover there. Just curious what you actually saw through the quarter in early 2023 that we'll kind of expect or what you guys are at least embedding in the guidance there?

偉大的。布賴恩，你之前提到過這個問題，但只是為了更深入地挖掘。您能否真正談談成本通脹，第四季度的趨勢如何以及您在 2023 年初看到的情況？你們在那裡嵌入了什麼？因為我認為您是在說您並沒有真正在其中嵌入翻轉。只是好奇你們在 2023 年初的這個季度實際看到了什麼，我們會有點期待，或者你們至少在指導中嵌入了什麼？

Yes. If you think about for the full year for '23, we're in that, call it, 5% to 5.5% inflation-type range. And again, when you take a look at the 6.5% expected yield on related revenue, that's how we're driving that 80 basis points or so of expansion in the underlying business. That's about the level we saw exiting the fourth quarter, and we expect it to remain relatively consistent throughout 2023.

是的。如果你考慮 23 年的全年，我們就處於 5% 到 5.5% 的通貨膨脹範圍內。再一次，當你看一下相關收入的 6.5% 預期收益率時，這就是我們推動基礎業務擴張 80 個基點左右的方式。這大約是我們在第四季度看到的水平，我們預計它在整個 2023 年將保持相對穩定。

At this time, there appear to be no further questions. Mr. Vander Ark, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

此時，似乎沒有進一步的問題。 Vander Ark 先生，我會將電話轉回給您，請您發表結束語。

Thank you, Andrea. I would like to thank our 40,000 employees for their efforts that enabled our strong 2022 results. The success of our strategic investments is made possible due to their hard work and commitment to serving our customers. Have a good evening, and be safe.

謝謝你，安德里亞。我要感謝我們的 40,000 名員工所做的努力，使我們在 2022 年取得了強勁的業績。由於他們的辛勤工作和對服務客戶的承諾，我們戰略投資的成功成為可能。晚上好，注意安全。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。