Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Regal Rexnord fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Regal Rexnord 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Robert Barry, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，該事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁羅伯特·巴里 (Robert Barry)。請繼續。

Great, thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Regal Rexnord's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Louis Pinkham, our Chief Executive Officer, and Rob Rehard, our Chief Financial Officer.

太好了，謝謝您，接線生。早安，歡迎參加 Regal Rexnord 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的還有我們的執行長 Louis Pinkham 和我們的財務長 Rob Rehard。

I'd like to remind you that during today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans, and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the regalrexnord.com website.

我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到與我們未來財務表現、計劃和業務運營相關的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異，我們在今天的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中對這些因素進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在 regalrexnord.com 網站上查閱。

Also in this slide, we state that we are presenting certain non-gap financial measures that we believe are useful to our investors, and we have included reconciliations between the non-GAAP financial information and the GAAP equivalent in the press release and in these presentation materials.

此外，在此投影片中，我們聲明我們正在展示某些我們認為對投資者有用的非缺口財務指標，並且我們在新聞稿和這些簡報資料中包含了非 GAAP 財務資訊與 GAAP 等效資訊的對帳。

Turning the slide 3, let me briefly review the agenda for today's call. Louis will lead off with his opening comments, and overview of our 4Q performance, and discuss a recent announcement in our aerospace business. Rob Rehard will then present our fourth quarter financial results in more detail and outline our 2025 financial guidance. After, that we'll move to Q&A and then Louis will be back with some closing remarks.

翻到第三張投影片，讓我簡單回顧一下今天電話會議的議程。路易斯將首先致開幕詞，概述我們的第四季度業績，並討論我們航空航天業務的最新公告。隨後，Rob Rehard 將更詳細地介紹我們的第四季度財務表現並概述我們的 2025 年財務指導。之後，我們將進入問答環節，然後路易斯會回來做一些結束語。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Louis.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給路易斯。

Great, thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter results and to get an update on our business and for your continued interest in Regal Rexnord. Before we dig into the material on this slide, let me share a few high level thoughts on our performance in the fourth quarter.

太好了，謝謝你，羅布，大家早安。感謝您加入我們討論第四季度的業績並了解我們的業務最新情況，也感謝您對 Regal Rexnord 的持續關注。在我們深入研究這張投影片的資料之前，讓我先分享一些關於我們第四季表現的高層想法。

Our fourth quarter performance reflected strong controllable execution by our team with notable progress on our outgrowth initiatives, synergy realization, gross margin expansion, orders acceleration, and debt reduction. However, markets continued to provide challenges which were larger than we expected for the quarter.

我們第四季的業績反映了我們團隊強大的可控執行力，在我們的成長計畫、協同效應實現、毛利率擴大、訂單加速和債務減少方面取得了顯著進展。然而，市場持續帶來挑戰，其規模比我們預期的要大。

Some notable highlights include IPS continuing to deliver clear signs of outgrowth plus healthy margin expansion. AMC exceeded its fourth quarter revenue target and achieved high single digit order growth. And PES made tremendous progress ramping capacity in residential HVAC with that vertical growing at a low 20% rate in the quarter.

一些值得注意的亮點包括 IPS 繼續呈現明顯的成長跡像以及健康的利潤率擴張。AMC超出了其第四季度的收入目標，並實現了高個位數的訂單成長。PES 在住宅暖通空調領域的產能提升取得了巨大進展，該垂直市場的成長率在本季僅為 20%。

So before continuing, I want to take a moment to thank our 30,000 Regal Rexnord associates for their consistent hard work and discipline controllable execution. Despite strong execution by our team, a number of our key and markets saw sustained or incrementally weaker demand in the quarter, which included atypically high end of year customer pushouts.

因此，在繼續之前，我想花點時間感謝我們 30,000 名 Regal Rexnord 員工的一致努力工作和紀律可控的執行。儘管我們的團隊執行力很強，但本季我們一些關鍵市場的需求仍然持續或逐步減弱，其中包括年底客戶流失異常嚴重。

In particular, global general industrial markets remain challenged, and the machinery and off-highway market, while only about 4% of total Regal Rexnord sales stepped down significantly impacting IPS and AMC. On a regional basis, we saw the most significant incremental pressure in China, though encouragingly, our core North American business was in aggregate, nearly flat.

尤其是全球一般工業市場以及機械和非公路用車市場依然面臨挑戰，而 Regal Rexnord 總銷量僅有 4% 左右出現下滑，對 IPS 和 AMC 產生了較大影響。從地區來看，我們看到中國面臨的增量壓力最為顯著，但令人鼓舞的是，我們的核心北美業務總體上幾乎持平。

The higher customer pushouts impacted all three segments, though especially IPS. Fortunately, we believe we have a line of sight to this pushed out spend returning in 2025, and so we would not interpret these actions by our customers as signs of weakening markets. In fact, as an enterprise, we believe we are actually starting to see a more sustained net inflection in our business momentum evidenced by our accelerating orders performance with all segments contributing.

更高的客戶推廣量對所有三個部門都產生了影響，尤其是 IPS。幸運的是，我們相信我們可以看到這種被推遲的支出將在 2025 年恢復，因此我們不會將客戶的這些行為解讀為市場疲軟的跡象。事實上，作為一家企業，我們相信我們實際上開始看到我們的業務發展勢頭出現更持續的淨拐點，這從我們所有部門的訂單表現加速成長中可見一斑。

While it is too soon to tell if the order acceleration will be sustained throughout the year, this improving order's momentum, which continued into January, makes us cautiously more optimistic about our growth prospects in 2025. Rob will share more on our 2025 outlook in his section.

雖然現在判斷訂單加速成長是否會持續到全年還為時過早，但這種持續到 1 月的訂單改善勢頭，使我們對 2025 年的成長前景持謹慎樂觀的態度。Rob 將在他的部分分享更多關於我們 2025 年的展望。

Now let me provide some specifics on our fourth quarter performance starting with sales. Our sales in the quarter were down 1.4% versus the prior year on an organic basis with PES growing slightly. Orders in the quarter on a daily basis were up 4.4%. Notably, orders in AMC were up nearly 9% with IPS orders up nearly 4%. PES orders also grew modestly, largely driven by prebuy dynamics in Resi HVAC, partially offset by weaker global general commercial markets.

現在，讓我從銷售情況開始介紹我們第四季的業績具體情況。本季我們的銷售額較上年同期下降 1.4%，但 PES 略有成長。本季每日訂單量增加了 4.4%。值得注意的是，AMC 訂單成長近 9%，IPS 訂單成長近 4%。PES 訂單也小幅增長，主要受到 Resi HVAC 預購動態的推動，但全球一般商業市場的疲軟部分抵消了這一增長。

While, in general, our orders remain weighted to longer cycle bookings, this growth gives us confidence that we will see better top line performance as 2025 unfolds. In January, daily organic orders were up 1.4%, which aligned with our expectations for orders in the month.

雖然總體而言，我們的訂單仍然偏向於較長週期的預訂，但這種增長讓我們有信心，隨著 2025 年的到來，我們將看到更好的營收表現。1 月份，每日有機訂單增加了 1.4%，這與我們對該月訂單的預期一致。

Despite fourth quarter top line pressure, margins in the quarter remained healthy. Our adjusted growth margin was 37.1% up 60 basis points versus the prior year excluding industrial systems. For the full fiscal year, our adjusted gross margin was 37.8%, up 210 basis points versus the prior year excluding industrial, and we believe we are firmly on track to achieve our targeted annual run rate gross margin of 40% exiting this year.

儘管第四季營收面臨壓力，但本季的利潤率仍然保持良好。我們的調整後成長率為 37.1%，比去年同期（不包括工業系統）上升了 60 個基點。就整個財年而言，我們的調整後毛利率為 37.8%，較上年（不包括工業）上漲 210 個基點，我們相信，我們預計在今年年底實現 40% 的年度毛利率目標。

Our progress on growth margin was aided by exceeding our 2024 cost synergy goal during the quarter, bringing our annual synergies recognized to $101 million for the year ahead of our $90 million goal. Adjusted even margin was 21.7%, down 80 basis points versus the prior year excluding industrial systems on lower volumes, weaker mix, FX pressure, and some growth investments, much of which was offset by synergy benefits.

本季度，我們超額完成了 2024 年的成本綜效目標，推動了成長利潤率的進步，使我們全年實現的協同效應達到 1.01 億美元，高於 9,000 萬美元的目標。調整後的均衡利潤率為 21.7%，較上年下降 80 個基點，不包括工業系統，原因是產量較低、產品組合較弱、外匯壓力和一些成長投資，但其中大部分被協同效益所抵消。

A notable margin bright spot was IPF, which achieved an adjusted EEA margin of 26% in the quarter, up 2 points versus the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter were $2.34 up 2.6% versus prior year. Lastly, we generated $185 million of adjusted free cash flow in fourth quarter, which contributed to Regal paying down $205 million of debt. For the full year we paid down $938 million of our debt exceeding our goal. Cash generation and debt pay down are an important part of our long-term value creation story, which was clear by our performance in 2024.

利潤率的一個顯著亮點是IPF，其本季調整後的EEA利潤率為26%，比上年增長了2個百分點。本季調整後每股收益為 2.34 美元，較上年增長 2.6%。最後，我們在第四季度產生了 1.85 億美元的調整後自由現金流，這有助於 Regal 償還 2.05 億美元的債務。全年我們償還了 9.38 億美元的債務，超出了我們的目標。現金創造和債務償還是我們長期價值創造的重要組成部分，這從我們 2024 年的表現中可以看出。

In summary, a quarter characterized by persistent market headwinds and rising FX pressures but also encouraging order performance and continued solid controllable execution by our team.

總而言之，本季的特點是市場持續逆風、外匯壓力上升，但訂單表現也令人鼓舞，我們團隊持續保持穩健、可控的執行。

Next, I'd like to share an exciting development related to one of our key growth initiatives, which is to leverage the scale and scope of our Regal Rexnord portfolio to provide differentiated customer value propositions. During the fourth quarter, we announced a partnership with Honeywell Aerospace to provide solutions for the advanced air mobility market, sometimes referred to as electric vertical takeoff and landing or EV tall aircraft.

接下來，我想分享與我們的一項關鍵成長計畫相關的令人興奮的進展，即利用我們的 Regal Rexnord 產品組合的規模和範圍來提供差異化的客戶價值主張。在第四季度，我們宣布與霍尼韋爾航空航太集團合作，為先進的空中交通市場提供解決方案，有時也稱為電動垂直起降或電動高飛機。

Initially, the partnership will focus on Regal Rexnord providing electromechanical actuator solutions, a representative example of which is pictured on the right-hand side of this slide. As our partnership with Honeywell evolves, we believe it has the potential to expand beyond its initial focus to other technology and product advancements in the aerospace market.

最初，合作將重點放在 Regal Rexnord 提供的機電執行器解決方案，本張投影片右側所示的就是此解決方案的代表性範例。隨著我們與霍尼韋爾的合作關係不斷發展，我們相信它有可能超越最初的重點擴展到航空航太市場的其他技術和產品進步。

There are a number of notable factors that we believe position us to be a valuable partner to Honeywell, which are listed on the left-hand side of the slide. First is our long-standing heritage in the aerospace business. Second is the depth and breadth of our portfolio. The combination of our legacy Regal Rexnord, and ultra-aerospace businesses created a critical mass of component breadth which now allows us to offer more value-added solutions.

我們認為有許多值得注意的因素使我們成為霍尼韋爾的寶貴合作夥伴，這些因素列在幻燈片的左側。首先是我們在航空航太產業的悠久歷史。第二是我們投資組合的深度和廣度。我們的傳統 Regal Rexnord 和超級航空航太業務的結合創造了豐富的零件產品線，現在使我們能夠提供更具增值價值的解決方案。

As you can see in the picture, electric actuators for the advanced air mobility market comprise many of our components which we are able to engineer into a value-added system. The value op for customers and for Honeywell is about improving quality and reliability through an integrated system optimized for performance. Along with making it easier to do business with Regal Rexnord by being able to procure one system versus multiple components.

正如您在圖中看到的，用於先進空中交通市場的電動執行器包含我們的許多組件，我們能夠將這些組件設計成增值系統。對於客戶和霍尼韋爾而言，價值在於透過性能優化的整合系統來提高品質和可靠性。同時，由於只需採購一個系統而不是多個元件，與 Regal Rexnord 做生意變得更加容易。

Next is our subject matter expertise in aerospace. We have a strong track record as a tier one component supplier which allows us to interact with customers as a trusted advisor and lead discussions with a technology focus. Finally, our significant global manufacturing capabilities means that we can produce at scale with consistency and reliability. The growth outlook for the EV market is strong, and we are confident in our ability to provide quality solutions at scale.

接下來是我們在航空航太領域的專業知識。作為一級零件供應商，我們擁有良好的業績記錄，這使我們能夠作為值得信賴的顧問與客戶互動，並以技術為重點引導討論。最後，我們強大的全球製造能力意味著我們可以大規模、一致、可靠地生產。電動車市場的成長前景強勁，我們有信心大規模提供優質的解決方案。

Our partnership with Honeywell is consistent with our strategy of moving up the value chain and selling more value added solutions to our customers. These were themes we discussed at our September investor day, and we are pleased to be making progress executing on this strategy.

我們與霍尼韋爾的合作符合我們提升價值鏈和向客戶銷售更多增值解決方案的策略。這些是我們在九月投資者日討論的主題，我們很高興在執行這項策略方面取得了進展。

Beyond the strategic validation, we are also very excited about the significant growth potential we see in the advanced air mobility market more broadly. Industry forecasts for AAM unit growth are compelling, estimating 2,000 aircraft per year by 2030, with potential Regal Rexnord addressable ship set content of $220,000 per plane.

除了策略驗證之外，我們也對更廣泛的先進空中機動市場中看到的巨大成長潛力感到非常興奮。業界對 AAM 單位成長的預測很有說服力，估計到 2030 年每年將有 2,000 架飛機，而 Regal Rexnord 的潛在可尋址船舶套件內容為每架飛機 220,000 美元。

To be clear, this is an external market forecast and not related to our Honeywell partnership specifically, though we do believe Honeywell is positioned to be a meaningful player in the AAM market. Even at a fraction of these anticipated growth rates, AAM has the potential to be a needle moving growth opportunity for Regal Rexnord. My congratulations to our AMC Aerospace team for securing this highly compelling partnership.

需要明確的是，這是一個外部市場預測，與我們與霍尼韋爾的合作關係無關，儘管我們確實相信霍尼韋爾將成為 AAM 市場中的重要參與者。即使成長率僅為預期的一小部分，AAM 仍有潛力為 Regal Rexnord 帶來重大的成長機會。我祝賀我們的AMC Aerospace團隊達成這項極具吸引力的合作關係。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Rob。

Thanks, Louis, and good morning, everyone. I'd also like to thank our global team for their hard work and disciplined execution in the quarter. Now, let's review our operating performance by segment.

謝謝，路易斯，大家早安。我還要感謝我們全球團隊在本季的辛勤工作和嚴謹的執行。現在，讓我們回顧一下我們各部門的經營績效。

Starting with automation and motion control or AMC. Net sales in the fourth quarter were down 2.3% to the prior year on an organic basis, but modestly ahead of our expectations. The decline reflects continued weakness in the general industrial and discrete automation, which was partially offset by strength in the food and beverage and aerospace and defense markets.

從自動化和運動控製或AMC開始。第四季淨銷售額較上年同期下降 2.3%，但略高於我們的預期。這一下降反映了一般工業和離散自動化市場的持續疲軟，但食品和飲料市場以及航空航天和國防市場的強勢部分抵消了這一疲軟。

The inflection to healthy positive sales growth in food and beverage is a noteworthy positive after a sustained period of pressure in that market. Within discrete automation, the shorter cycle business showed sequential improvement, but remains below the 2019 levels that we would consider a more normal level of demand.

在食品和飲料市場經歷一段持續的壓力期之後，該市場銷售轉為健康成長是一個值得注意的正面因素。在離散自動化領域，短週期業務表現出連續的改善，但仍低於我們認為更正常的需求水準—2019 年的水準。

And while longer cycle orders remained quite strong. Those orders have delivery dates weighted to the back half of '25 or into 2026. AMC's adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 21.6%, which was below our expectations on weaker mix, particularly with indiscrete automation, as well as larger than expected foreign exchange pressures.

而較長週期的訂單仍然相當強勁。這些訂單的交付日期預計在2025年下半年或2026年。AMC 本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.6%，低於我們的預期，原因是產品組合較弱，尤其是自動化程度不高，外匯壓力大於預期。

Orders in AMC in the fourth quarter were up 8.8% versus prior year on a daily basis. Third quarter in a row of positive orders. Book Bill in the fourth quarter for AMC was [1.05%], which is significantly more favorable than the 0.92% we saw exiting 2023. We are encouraged by the positive order momentum we have been seeing in AMC over the past three quarters, which gives us increased confidence. This business is poised to inflect a positive sales growth, which our current outlook assumes starts to occur in the back half of this year. I'll elaborate on AMC's outlook later in my remarks.

AMC第四季的每日訂單量較上年同期成長了8.8%。連續第三季訂單轉正。AMC 第四季的帳面利潤為 [1.05%]，明顯高於 2023 年底的 0.92%。過去三個季度，AMC 的訂單勢頭良好，這讓我們備受鼓舞，增強了我們的信心。該業務預計將實現積極的銷售成長，根據我們目前的預測，這一增長將在今年下半年開始出現。我將在稍後的評論中詳細闡述 AMC 的前景。

January orders for AMC were up about 6% on a daily basis. According to industrial powertrain solutions or IPS, net sales in the fourth quarter were down 1.9% versus the prior year on an organic basis. The decline reflects particular weakness in the machinery off-highway market in general industrial and metals in mining, partially offset by strength in energy and marine markets.

AMC 1 月訂單量每日成長約 6%。根據工業動力總成解決方案或IPS的數據，第四季的淨銷售額較上年同期下降了1.9％。這一下滑反映出一般工業非公路機械市場和採礦業金屬市場的疲軟，但被能源和船舶市場的強勢所部分抵消。

We estimate that cross marketing synergies also continue to contribute a couple points of outgrowth in the quarter, helping us outperform in what remains a down market. Despite continued outgrowth momentum, fourth quarter sales in IPS were below our expectations, most notably due to a significant incremental weakness in the machinery off-highway market, in addition to last minute end-of-year customer pushouts that we saw in a number of in markets.

我們估計，交叉行銷綜效也將在本季繼續貢獻幾個點的成長，幫助我們在低迷的市場中表現出色。儘管 IPS 繼續保持成長勢頭，但第四季度的銷售額低於我們的預期，最明顯的原因是非公路用機械市場出現了明顯的增量疲軟，此外，我們在多個市場都看到了年底客戶最後一刻的促銷活動。

That said, we see this dynamic as more timing related. Notably, excluding the impact of these late December pushouts, IPS would have been slightly ahead of its sales target midpoint for the quarter. Adjusted even the margin in the quarter was 26%, up 200 basis points versus the prior year, aided mainly by synergies.

儘管如此，我們認為這種動態更與時間有關。值得注意的是，如果不考慮 12 月下旬推出的這些產品的影響，IPS 的本季銷售目標中位數將略有提高。經調整後，本季的利潤率為 26%，比上年同期成長 200 個基點，主要得益於綜效。

Orders in EPS on a daily basis were up nearly 4% in the fourth quarter, and we believe reflects further outgrowth in what remained down in markets. Book to build in fourth quarter for IPS was 1.0. In January, orders on a daily organic basis were up nearly 2%.

第四季度，EPS 每日訂單量成長了近 4％，我們認為這反映了市場低迷的進一步成長。IPS 第四季的預定訂單為 1.0。 1 月份，每日有機訂單量成長近 2%。

Turning to power efficiency solutions or PES. Net sales in the fourth quarter were up slightly versus the prior year on an organic basis, which was below our expectations. The result reflects strong growth in residential HVAC and to a lesser extent in pool and in commercial HVAC in North America, which was offset by significant weakness in the general commercial market, especially in China and commercial HVAC outside North America.

轉向電源效率解決方案或PES。第四季的淨銷售額較上年同期略有成長，但低於我們的預期。該結果反映了北美住宅暖通空調市場的強勁增長以及泳池和商用暖通空調市場的較小幅度增長，但這被一般商用市場（尤其是中國和北美以外的商用暖通空調市場）的明顯疲軟所抵消。

As we shared last quarter, it was our intention to make significant progress ramping our capacity in residential HVAC, so we can serve our customers ahead of the year-end A2L regulatory transition. We are pleased to see that the ES team made great progress on this front, which allowed us to support our customers and deliver low 20 sales growth in the residential HVAC business for the quarter.

正如我們上個季度所分享的那樣，我們打算在提升住宅暖通空調產能方面取得重大進展，以便我們能夠在年底 A2L 監管過渡之前為客戶提供服務。我們很高興看到 ES 團隊在這方面取得了巨大進展，這使我們能夠為客戶提供支持，並在本季度實現了住宅 HVAC 業務的低 20% 的銷售增長。

Let me also provide some incremental color on the general commercial market where we experience incremental weakness in the quarter. This part of the business sells general purpose motors into a notably in December, especially in China and Europe, to a degree we were not expecting. Despite these market pressures based on third-party market data, we gained share in our primary North America market in 2024.

我還想提供一些有關一般商業市場的增量信息，我們在本季度經歷了增量疲軟。這部分業務的通用電機銷售量在12月大幅成長，尤其是在中國和歐洲，達到了我們意想不到的程度。儘管第三方市場數據顯示市場面臨壓力，但我們在 2024 年在主要北美市場的份額仍然成長。

Turning to segment margins. The adjusted even a margin in the quarter for PES was 15.3%, which was below our expectation on lower volumes, larger than expected FX headwinds, and some temporary labor efficiencies as we prioritize ramping capacity with urgency to best serve our residential HVAC customers ahead of the refrigerant transition.

轉向段邊距。本季 PES 的調整後利潤率為 15.3%，低於我們的預期，原因是銷量較低、外匯逆風大於預期以及一些臨時勞動力效率低下，因為我們優先考慮緊急提高產能，以便在製冷劑轉換之前為我們的住宅 HVAC 客戶提供最佳服務。

Relative to prior year, the PES margin was down on lower volumes, FX related pressure, and temporarily higher labor costs. Shifting to orders and PES for the fourth quarter were up 1% on a daily basis. Notably, orders in resi/HVAC were up over 20% in the quarter, leading us to build some backlog in resi while orders in commercial HVAC and general commercial were down.

與前一年相比，PES 利潤率因銷售下降、外匯相關壓力以及勞動成本暫時上漲而下降。第四季的訂單和PES每日上漲1%。值得注意的是，本季住宅/暖通空調訂單增加了 20% 以上，導致我們在住宅方面累積了一些積壓訂單，而商用暖通空調和一般商用方面的訂單則下降。

Book to bill in the quarter for PES was 0.97. Similar to what I discussed for AMC, this business is exiting the year in a stronger position versus where it was a year ago exiting 2023. Daily orders for PES in January were down 3.4%. While we expected a modest decline due to the A2L transition, we actually saw strength in residential [HI] orders in the month, which were up 3% on strength and furnace.

本季 PES 的訂單出貨比為 0.97。與我討論的 AMC 的情況類似，與一年前（2023 年）相比，這項業務在今年結束時的地位將更加強勁。1月份PES日訂單量下降3.4%。雖然我們預計由於 A2L 轉型會出現小幅下降，但實際上我們看到本月住宅 [HI] 訂單強勁，強度和熔爐訂單增長了 3%。

January is also being weighed down by lapping a large project order in January 2024, absent which monthly orders in January would have been roughly flat. We view this favorably, given the degree of activity that was pulled forward ahead of the year end of year A2L transition.

1 月也受到 2024 年 1 月大型專案訂單的壓力，如果沒有這筆訂單，1 月的月度訂單將基本持平。考慮到年底 A2L 過渡前的活動程度，我們對此持樂觀態度。

On the following slide, we highlight some additional financial updates for your reference. Notably, on the right side of this page, you will see we ended the quarter with total debt of approximately $5.46 billion and net debt of $5.06 billion. We repaid approximately $205 million of gross debt in the quarter and $938 million for the year ahead of our plan.

在下面的幻燈片中，我們重點介紹了一些額外的財務更新供您參考。值得注意的是，在本頁的右側，您將看到本季結束時我們的總債務約為 54.6 億美元，淨債務為 50.6 億美元。我們在本季償還了約 2.05 億美元的總債務，並提前一年償還了 9.38 億美元的債務。

A further note, we ended the year with variable rate debt of roughly $450 million representing approximately 8% of our total debt outstanding, which we expect to have repaid by the end of this year. Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $185.3 million which was primarily deployed to debt reduction. We plan to continue deploying the majority of our free cash flow to debt reduction in 2025.

進一步說明一下，今年年底我們的浮動利率債務約為 4.5 億美元，約占我們未償還債務總額的 8%，我們預計這些債務將在今年年底前償還。本季調整後的自由現金流為 1.853 億美元，主要用於減債。我們計劃在 2025 年繼續將大部分自由現金流用於減債。

Turning to the outlook. Let me walk you through our principal 2025 guidance points which are specified in the table on the right side of this slide. Starting with sales. Our 2024 sales were just over $6 billion excluding the industrial business that we sold in April 2024, bridges to a go forward 2024 sales level of $5.88 billion. Our 2025 guidance midpoint assumes a similar level of sales, factoring roughly flat organic growth and a modest headwind from FX.

展望未來。讓我向您介紹我們 2025 年的主要指導要點，這些要點在本投影片右側的表格中指定。從銷售開始。不包括我們於 2024 年 4 月出售的工業業務，我們 2024 年的銷售額略高於 60 億美元，預計 2024 年的銷售水準將達到 58.8 億美元。我們的 2025 年指導中點假設銷售水準相似，考慮到有機成長基本上持平以及外匯帶來的適度阻力。

Our flat organic assumption embeds modest in market pressure offset by about 1 point of outgrowth. Lastly, we expect sales to be slightly back half weighted at roughly 1% above the first half level. For reference, our book to build entering 2024 was 0.93 versus 1.0 this year as we enter 2025. So we do believe a year later we are better positioned to grow. From an EBITDA margin perspective, our target is 23% for the year, which is about a 1 point improvement compared to our 2024 performance excluding the industrial business.

我們的平穩有機假設包含適度的市場壓力，抵銷約 1 個點的成長。最後，我們預計銷售額將略有回落，比上半年高出約 1%。作為參考，我們進入 2024 年時的建帳率為 0.93，而今年進入 2025 年時的建帳率為 1.0。因此我們確實相信一年後我們將有更好的發展空間。從 EBITDA 利潤率的角度來看，我們今年的目標是 23%，比我們 2024 年不包括工業業務的業績提高約 1 個百分點。

The principal drivers in the margin bridge are $54 million of incremental synergies plus productivity initiatives, net of a roughly $20 million FX profit headwind. We expect EBITDA margins to improve as we progress through the year on volume, cost energy realization, productivity, and mix in AMC. We assume the fourth quarter margin approaches 25% aligned with the targets we presented at our last investor day.

利潤率上漲的主要驅動力是 5,400 萬美元的增量協同效應加上生產力舉措，扣除約 2,000 萬美元的外匯利潤逆風。我們預計，隨著銷售量、成本能源實現、生產力和 AMC 組合在年內不斷進步，EBITDA 利潤率將會提高。我們預計第四季的利潤率將接近 25%，與我們上次投資者日提出的目標一致。

We're also sharing the relevant below the line modeling items. Notably, we expect to benefit from lower interest expense worth just over $50 million reflecting progress paying down our debt during 2024 and anticipated meaningful further debt reduction this year. This alone is worth about $0.60 of EPS growth in 2025.

我們也會分享相關的線下建模項目。值得注意的是，我們預計將受益於較低的利息支出，價值略高於 5,000 萬美元，這反映了我們在 2024 年償還債務的進展，以及預計今年將進一步大幅減少債務。僅此一項就足以使 2025 年的每股收益增長約 0.60 美元。

You will also see that our effective tax rate is now expected to be 22.5%, down from our prior midterm base case assumption of 24%. This is due to identifiable tax benefits we expect in the year. While we are working on opportunities to more permanently lower our effective tax rate, for now, investors should assume a 23% rate in 2026 and beyond.

您還將看到，我們現在預計的有效稅率為 22.5%，低於我們先前的中期基準假設 24%。這是因為我們預計今年將獲得可識別的稅收優惠。雖然我們正在努力尋找機會更持久地降低我們的有效稅率，但目前，投資者應該假設 2026 年及以後的稅率為 23%。

These assumptions result in a diluted adjusted EPS midpoint estimate of $10 per share and an ETS guidance range of $9.60 to $10.40. At the midpoint, this outlook delivers approximately 10% adjusted earnings per share growth versus the prior year. We expect adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $700 million this year, representing a roughly 12% free cash flow margin.

這些假設導致稀釋調整後每股收益中點估計為 10 美元/股，ETS 指導範圍為 9.60 美元至 10.40 美元。從中間值來看，這一前景將帶來比去年同期約 10% 的調整後每股收益成長。我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流約為 7 億美元，代表自由現金流利潤率約為 12%。

We expect the growth in free cash flow over 2024 to be achieved through a combination of trade working capital improvements, particularly inventory, higher EBITDA which includes a $54 million benefit from synergies, lower cash restructuring, and lower cash interest.

我們預計，2024 年自由現金流的成長將透過多種方式實現，包括貿易營運資本改善（尤其是庫存）、更高的 EBITDA（包括協同效應帶來的 5,400 萬美元收益）、更低的現金重組和更低的現金利息。

We expect our annual run rate cash flow to be approximately $900 million exiting 2025. This is below our prior target of $1 billion due to lower volumes relative to prior expectations. However, we remain on track to reduce our net leverage to roughly 3 times exiting this year, as all available free cash flow will be prioritized towards paying down debt.

我們預計，到 2025 年，我們的年運行現金流將達到約 9 億美元。由於交易量低於先前的預期，這低於我們先前設定的 10 億美元的目標。然而，我們仍有望在今年將淨槓桿率降低至約 3 倍，因為所有可用的自由現金流將優先用於償還債務。

Finally, as noted at the bottom of this slide, our guidance does not consider the impacts of potential Mexico or Canada tariffs. The impacts of the recently implemented China tariffs, while immaterial, are considered in our outlook. On this slide, we provide more specific expectations for our performance by segment on revenue and adjusted ebium margin for the first quarter and for the full year.

最後，如本投影片底部所述，我們的指導沒有考慮潛在墨西哥或加拿大關稅的影響。儘管最近實施的中國關稅的影響並不重大，但我們仍將其納入展望。在此幻燈片中，我們對第一季和全年各部門的收入和調整後的 ebium 利潤率的表現提供了更具體的預期。

I would flag that we expect the first quarter to be the low point for the year from a sales margin and EPS perspective with anticipated sequential improvements thereafter tied to top line benefits associated with our building positive orders momentum, further synergy gains, and ongoing debt reduction.

我想指出的是，從銷售利潤率和每股收益的角度來看，我們預計第一季將是今年的最低點，此後預計會出現連續改善，與我們建立積極的訂單動能、進一步的協同效應和持續的債務削減相關的營收收益掛鉤。

As I wrap up my prepared comments, I would like to reiterate that while we are cautiously optimistic entering 2025, we are remaining measured in our approach to guidance. We are using current market conditions to set our expected guidance range, and as discussed, we see a stronger second half versus the first half based on current order trends and backlog characteristics.

當我結束準備好的評論時，我想重申，雖然我們對進入 2025 年持謹慎樂觀的態度，但我們在指導方針上仍保持審慎。我們正在使用當前的市場條件來設定我們的預期指導範圍，並且正如討論的那樣，根據當前的訂單趨勢和積壓特徵，我們認為下半年將比上半年更加強勁。

Although we are entering 2025 with a stronger book bill than prior year, we're still not quite seeing sustained strength in the ISM and general industrial metrics. That said, our teams are energized by the progress we have made transforming this business, by the potential we see in our portfolio, and by our ability to profitably outgrow our markets in 2025.

儘管我們進入 2025 年時訂單量將比前一年更強勁，但我們仍然沒有看到 ISM 和一般工業指標的持續強勁。儘管如此，我們的團隊對我們在業務轉型方面所取得的進展、我們在產品組合中看到的潛力以及我們在 2025 年實現超越現有市場的盈利增長的能力感到振奮。

And with that operator, we are now ready to take questions.

有了這個接線員，我們現在就可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Jeff Hammond。

Hey guys, this is Mitch Moore on for Jeff. I guess my first question, should we think of the upside to synergies in 2024 as pull forward of the sales synergies or upside to the total opportunity? Then if you could just level set us on the incremental synergies in 2025.

嘿夥計們，我是米奇摩爾 (Mitch Moore)，代表傑夫報道。我的第一個問題是，我們是否應該將 2024 年綜效的上升視為銷售綜效的推動力或整體機會的上升空間？那麼，如果您能為我們設定 2025 年的增量綜效水準的話。

Yeah, so the synergies that we realized earlier than anticipated are not are pulled forward from 2025, but our goal for 2025 is $54 million which would be a reduction from the $65 million we had presented previously. So it's not incremental synergies overall, but rather just we got them a bit earlier than originally anticipated.

是的，因此，我們比預期更早實現的協同效應並沒有從 2025 年提前，但我們 2025 年的目標是 5400 萬美元，這將比我們之前提出的 6500 萬美元有所減少。因此，總體而言，這並不是漸進式的協同效應，只是我們比最初預期的要早一些獲得了協同效應。

Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe if you could just level set us on your manufacturing footprint in Mexico with all the tariff talks, and then and then just risks associated with tariffs and how do you expect to navigate them if they happen. Thanks.

好的，這很有幫助。然後，如果您能就所有關稅談判向我們說明您在墨西哥的製造足跡，以及與關稅相關的風險，以及如果發生關稅，您預計如何應對。謝謝。

Yeah, so we certainly have a strong position in Mexico with about a little over 30% of our direct labor workforce in Mexico. From a tariff perspective, we're, clearly tracking this very closely, but there's still quite a bit of uncertainty. Nevertheless, in the last quarter we stood up a cross-functional team to focus on tariffs assessing the various impacts and to try to be best prepared if they get implemented. Hence the reason why with the China tariffs, we feel we'll be able to absorb that fairly easily.

是的，我們在墨西哥的地位確實很強大，我們的直接勞動力約有 30% 多一點在墨西哥。從關稅角度來看，我們顯然正在密切關注這個問題，但仍然存在相當大的不確定性。儘管如此，上個季度我們還是成立了一個跨職能團隊，專注於關稅問題，評估各種影響，並在關稅實施時做好最佳準備。因此，我們認為我們能夠相當輕鬆地吸收中國徵收的關稅。

With regards to Mexico in particular, if tariffs get put in place, we'll have to leverage our flexible global manufacturing footprint. And supply chain will continue to push operational efficiencies and then we'll continue to implement a variety of cost saving measures. But in addition, a large part of our approach will will likely have to be implementing price actions across the the broader product lines.

特別是對於墨西哥，如果徵收關稅，我們將不得不利用我們靈活的全球製造足跡。供應鏈將繼續提高營運效率，然後我們將繼續實施各種節省成本的措施。但除此之外，我們的方法很大一部分可能必須是在更廣泛的產品線上實施價格行動。

I will tell you that our strategy for a while has been in region for region and supply redundancy, and so we have quite a few levers to pull. One example of that is five years ago. With regards to our China supply chain, we were pretty embedded with China globally, and now China stands on its own and again why we feel that the China tariffs are fairly immaterial.

我要告訴你們的是，我們一段時間以來的策略一直是區域對區域和供應冗餘，因此，我們有相當多的槓桿可以運用。五年前的就是一個例子。關於我們的中國供應鏈，我們在全球範圍內與中國深度融合，現在中國已經獨立發展，這也是我們為什麼認為中國關稅無關緊要的原因。

And I'd also say, we have a muscle here. We've done this before. When the tariffs were put in place five or six years ago, we took actions in our industrial systems business. We relocated production. We passed on price as a headwind. And in the end, over, a midterm time frame, we were able to get our margins right back to where they needed to be. So we feel as though we're confident that whichever direction the administration goes, we'll be able to manage through it effectively.

而且我還要說，我們這裡有肌肉。我們以前做過這個。五、六年前，當關稅開始實施時，我們就在工業系統業務方面採取了行動。我們遷移了生產地點。我們將價格視為不利因素。最後，在中期時間內，我們能夠將利潤率恢復到應有的水準。因此，我們有信心，無論政府採取何種行動，我們都能夠有效地應對。

Okay, great thanks for the questions.

好的，非常感謝您的提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

花旗集團的凱爾·孟格斯（Kyle Menges）。

Thank you. I just wanted to dive deeper into the outgrowth you're seeing. It sounds like a lot of it's in IPS, so I guess just, what's giving you, some of that success driving the outgrowth and confidence and in one point of outgrowth in 2025?

謝謝。我只是想更深入地了解你所看到的成果。聽起來很多都是在 IPS 中，所以我想，是什麼給了你一些成功推動成長和信心以及 2025 年的成長點？

Yeah, a lot of it is in the IPS, but it's also in AMC and partially in PES. So let me walk backwards. So PES, it's all about our new products and our move more into air moving. We're getting some nice momentum with our our fan filter units in clean rooms and data centers. And so we feel really good around the vitality. And as you know, vitality as we talked at investor day is really important to us.

是的，很多內容都在 IPS 中，但也有 AMC 中，部分在 PES 中。所以讓我倒著走。因此，PES 全部涉及我們的新產品以及我們在空氣流動方面的更多舉措。我們在無塵室和資料中心的風扇過濾裝置方面取得了良好的發展勢頭。因此，我們對這種活力感到非常滿意。如你所知，我們在投資者日談到的活力對我們來說確實非常重要。

When we go to AMC, it, it's all around these integrated solutions and being able to move up the value chain to provide better solutions to our our customer now we talked about the [EBITDA on this] call that's a little bit more longer term, but but short term we're working on many programs in AMC and and definitely is we're seeing it in the order rates and the growth of the order rates.

當我們去 AMC 時，一切都圍繞著這些整合解決方案，並且能夠提升價值鏈，為我們的客戶提供更好的解決方案，現在我們談論的是 [本次電話會議的 EBITDA]，這是一個更長期的問題，但短期內我們正在 AMC 開展許多項目，而且我們肯定會在訂單率和訂單率的增長中看到它。

Finally it is IPS, and IPS it's all about the industrial powertrain. And it's a very similar story that I talked about with AMC. Our funnel for the industrial powertrain solution system -- total integrated system is up roughly double last year. Remember our scale and scope provides us the strongest go to market in the industry. We're also seeing significant benefit around the cross sell. If you look at cross sell today, only 19% of our customers buy more than one of our product categories. And if you could just double that cross sell, that's an incremental $150 million of revenue for us and so this is where we get confidence around the roughly 100 basis points of outgrowth for 2025.

最後是 IPS，IPS 是關於工業動力傳動系統的。這和我與 AMC 談論的故事非常相似。我們的工業動力總成解決方案系統—總整合系統的數量去年大約增加了一倍。請記住，我們的規模和範圍為我們提供了業內最強大的市場競爭力。我們也看到交叉銷售帶來的顯著效益。如果你今天看一下交叉銷售，你會發現只有 19% 的客戶會購買我們多個類別的產品。如果您能將交叉銷售量翻一番，我們的營收就會增加 1.5 億美元，因此我們對 2025 年約 100 個基點的成長充滿信心。

And I guess following up on that just where are you -- within IPS especially just where are you seeing some some early wins and with the cross selling and then just opportunities you see in 2025 to drive the additional cross selling. Thank you.

我想接下來您要問的是，在 IPS 領域，您在哪裡看到了一些早期的成功，以及交叉銷售，以及您在 2025 年看到了哪些機會來推動額外的交叉銷售。謝謝。

Yeah, so we're seeing it mostly with OEMs, but we're also seeing it in project work. So one example of it is a mining project in Southeast Asia, where we would normally sell components, but we're selling an integrated system with the motor, the gear drive, and a shaft with couplings and bearings. That project is going to be worth over an 18 month period of mid teens millions. And so this is the kind of opportunities that we're seeing today that we're winning that's going to allow us to what we feel accelerate the IPS sales growth.

是的，我們主要在 OEM 上看到它，但我們也在專案工作中看到它。其中一個例子是東南亞的一個採礦項目，我們通常會銷售零件，但我們銷售的是帶有電機、齒輪傳動裝置以及帶有聯軸器和軸承的軸的整合系統。該項目為期 18 個月，總價值將達到數百萬美元。所以這就是我們今天看到的、我們正在贏得的機會，這將使我們能夠加速 IPS 銷售的成長。

Great thank you guys.

非常感謝你們。

Mike Halloran, Baird.

麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Mike.

早上好，麥克。

Yeah, maybe this is more like two questions, but I just kinda want to make sure I have my hands around how you're thinking about the sequential cadencing through the year. The first quarter here, obviously the low water mark as Rob talked about the prepared remarks.

是的，也許這更像是兩個問題，但我只是想確保我了解你是如何看待全年的連續節奏的。正如羅佈在談到準備好的發言時所說，第一季顯然是低水位。

Thinking that with the order cadence thing, I think is a question I'm getting a lot from folks, just you've seen a couple positive order quarters, first quarter guides a little softer, back half gets better. Maybe just talk through that cadence and what is it about the first quarter that's that's so challenging and then.

想到訂單節奏的事情，我想這是我經常從人們那裡得到的問題，就像你已經看到了幾個積極的訂單季度，第一季度的指導稍微軟一點，後半部分會變得更好。也許只是討論一下這個節奏，以及第一季的挑戰是什麼。

Trends seem like they're not that different from an order book perspective, but why do you think that these things just keep keep getting pushed out confidence? They basically just kind of help a little bit more with that cadence.

從訂單簿的角度來看，趨勢似乎沒有什麼不同，但您認為為什麼這些事情會不斷失去信心？它們基本上只是對這種節奏提供一點點幫助。

Yeah, hey, Mike, thanks for the question, and I think it's -- the question is an important one for us to clarify even further. So first quarter is typically the low mark for us, and on top of that we will have PES pressure because of the A2L that was pulled forward into Q4.

是的，嘿，麥克，謝謝你的提問，我認為——這個問題很重要，我們需要進一步澄清。因此，第一季通常是我們的低谷，此外，由於 A2L 被提前到第四季度，我們將面臨 PES 壓力。

Although I feel a little bit better that we saw about 3% in orders in the residential HVAC business in January, but we are forecasting that residential HVAC is down in the first quarter. And that overall is what's putting a bit of pressure. And then it's AMC and most of the project -- sorry, most of the order work seeing are longer cycle projects. And that improved position is helping us get confidence to the second half. So AMC saw roughly 9% of orders in the quarter.

雖然我感覺好一點，因為我們看到 1 月份住宅暖通空調業務的訂單增長了約 3%，但我們預測第一季住宅暖通空調將會下降。總的來說，這確實帶來了一些壓力。然後是 AMC 和大多數項目——抱歉，大多數訂單工作都是週期較長的項目。而這種改善有助於我們對下半場充滿信心。因此，AMC 本季的訂單量約為 9%。

But if you look at the in Q4 -- if you look at the beginning of this year at the shippable backlog in our in our backlog for the second half, for factory automation in particular it's double where we were entering last year. And so it's those longer cycles that that are more weighted to the second half that are giving us confidence. And as Rob said, we're entering this year with a book bill of about slightly around 1 versus 0.93 of last year, but a lot of those orders are more weighted to the second half.

但如果你看看第四季——如果你看看今年年初，我們下半年的可出貨積壓訂單，特別是工廠自動化積壓訂單，它是去年同期的兩倍。因此，正是這些更長的周期、對下半年更重要的因素給了我們信心。正如羅布所說，今年我們的訂單量大約是 1，而去年為 0.93，但許多訂單都集中在下半年。

And by the way, the waiting to the second half and a lot of it in factory automation where we have a bit stronger margins is also why we feel good about the margin profile of the second half or feeling more confident about the margin profile of the second half. So hopefully that was helpful, Mike.

順便說一句，等待下半年，以及在工廠自動化領域，我們的利潤率會更高一些，這也是我們對下半年利潤率狀況感到滿意或對下半年利潤率狀況更有信心的原因。希望這對你有幫助，麥克。

No, that was, and if you look back at the history, I know you guys have piecemeal a handful of companies together, so this might be a little harder to see. Is this unusual, right? Because normally you get kind of short cycle business that leads the long cycle business. This feels a little unique in that you might actually have the short cycle recovery and the long cycle businesses at the same time, not cadence. I'm just kind of curious how this would track versus what you've seen historically.

不，那是，如果你回顧歷史，我知道你們已經把幾家公司零碎地合併在一起了，所以這可能有點難以看清。這很不尋常吧？因為通常情況下，短週期業務會引領長週期業務。這感覺有點獨特，因為你實際上可能同時擁有短週期恢復和長週期業務，而不是節奏。我只是有點好奇這與你過去所見的情況相比有何差異。

Yeah, Mike, I don't really think I have a solid answer because we haven't made that compare, but I don't think it's an easy compare because in particular what's driving this is factory automation. And as you well know, factory automation has had a lot of pressure last year which was still based on the COVID overhang.

是的，麥克，我不認為我有一個確切的答案，因為我們還沒有進行比較，但我不認為這是一個容易的比較，因為推動這一點的具體因素是工廠自動化。眾所周知，由於新冠疫情的影響，去年工廠自動化承受了極大的壓力。

What is driving a big piece of this longer cycle of project work though is the defense work and the aerospace work that we're well positioned in, and we're seeing that really fill into the second half. So hopefully that comment helps with how we're thinking about it.

然而，推動這一較長專案工作週期的很大一部分原因是國防工作和航空航天工作，我們在這方面處於有利地位，而且我們看到這些工作確實在下半週期得到了填補。所以希望這個評論能夠幫助我們思考這個問題。

No, that's fair. And then just one quick clarification, could you just talk through the free cash flow assumptions one more time 700 this year, I think you said the exit rate was 900. Is 900 the rough thought process for '26 at this point, and maybe just talk talk through the puts and takes on on on what the changes are and and how to think about leverage as you're over that similar time frame?

不，這很公平。然後只需快速澄清一下，您能否再一次談談自由現金流假設，今年是 700，我想您說的退出率是 900。此時，900 是否是 '26 的粗略思考過程，也許只是討論一下變化是什麼，以及如何在類似的時間範圍內考慮槓桿作用？

Sure, so the $900 million is the 2026 thought at this time. I mean you get to the $700 million from the over $500 million, this year, I think, you can look at it as EBITDA contribution, and then you've got your cash interest, that's going to give you about $50 million. Your cash tax is about $40 million. Working capital about $50 million in restructure cash restructuring another 50, so when you add that up, you get about that $200 million between the $500 million and $700 million to bridge to '25.

當然，所以 9 億美元是目前對 2026 年的想法。我的意思是，今年您可以從 5 億多美元中獲得 7 億美元，我想，您可以將其視為 EBITDA 貢獻，然後您將獲得現金利息，這將為您帶來約 5000 萬美元。您的現金稅約為4000萬美元。營運資金約為 5,000 萬美元的重組現金，用於重組另外 5,000 萬美元，因此，當您將這些加起來時，您將獲得 5 億至 7 億美元之間的約 2 億美元，以過渡到 25 年。

And then you go into '26, then you would then then we would expect that you know maybe another $75 Million on cash interest to help you out as well as about $50 million on cash restructuring, offset a bit with some working capital that we won't get as much in '26. But the remainder will pretty much be in even the contribution to get you to the $900 million. Hopefully, that helps.

然後你進入'26年，那麼你就會期望也許還有7500萬美元的現金利息可以幫助你，以及大約5000萬美元的現金重組，用一些營運資金稍微抵消，我們在'26年不會得到那麼多。但剩餘部分差不多就能達到 9 億美元的目標。希望這能有所幫助。

No, that's great. And then the leverage is on as soon then by the end there.

不，那太好了。然後槓桿就會盡快發揮作用。

Yeah, so we're thinking we'll be about 3 times by the end of this year, which means we should be about 2.5, middle of next year.

是的，所以我們認為到今年年底這個數字將會達到 3 倍左右，這意味著到明年年中我們應該能夠達到 2.5 倍左右。

Perfect. Thanks, everyone, appreciate it.

完美的。謝謝大家，感激不盡。

Yeah, thanks, Mike.

是的，謝謝，麥克。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe just trying to stick to two questions. So my first one would just be trying to understand a little bit better, the dynamics embedded for PES this year. If I look at the sort of sales guides, for example, you've got a Q1 which is starting out, flat to up sort of year on year, the full year down, low single digits, year on year.

嗨，早安。也許只是想堅持兩個問題。所以我的第一個想法只是想更了解今年 PES 的動態。例如，如果我看一下銷售指南，就會發現第一季的銷售額比去年同期持平或上升，而全年銷售額則是年減，為個位數的低點。

So I understand it's sort of a sequential hit from the A2L in the first quarter and then a sort of a year on year hit in the fourth quarter probably. But if you could flesh out kind of how we should think about the seasonality of the sales and earnings for PES this year, because it is a bit of a sort of abnormal, start and finish perhaps.

因此，我理解這可能是第一季 A2L 的連續打擊，然後可能是第四季的同比打擊。但如果你可以詳細說明我們應該如何看待今年 PES 的銷售和收益的季節性，因為這也許有點不正常，開始和結束。

Yeah Julian, let me kick this one off, so first of all, in the first quarter, you laid it out pretty well. I mean you do have that impact from the A2L transition and then just the weakness in general commercial that we talked about and non US commercial HVAC so that is absolutely, the top line noise and headwind for PES and Q1.

是的，朱利安，讓我開始這個，首先，在第一季度，你表現得非常好。我的意思是，你確實受到了 A2L 轉型的影響，然後就是我們所談論的一般商業和非美國商業 HVAC 的疲軟，所以這絕對是 PES 和 Q1 的頂線噪音和逆風。

As you move through the year though you know we do believe that you know resi/HVAC should improve from the first quarter rates. And so that is incrementally improves as you move through the through the year maybe down like low single digits for the year. And then flattish on commercial HVAC through the year, overall, again stronger in North America, continued weakness in China and Europe, but flattish overall. And then general commercials, down about low single digits, but incrementally improves quarter over quarter, which also improves your mix and provides better margin benefit. So hopefully that helps a bit.

然而，隨著時間的推移，您知道我們確實相信，住宅/暖通空調系統 (HVAC) 的費率應該會從第一季的費率水準有所改善。因此，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸改善，全年可能下降到個位數以下。全年商用暖通空調市場整體持平，北美市場再次走強，中國和歐洲市場持續疲軟，但整體持平。然後，一般商業廣告下降了約個位數，但每個季度都在逐步改善，這也改善了您的產品組合併提供了更好的利潤效益。希望這能有所幫助。

Yes, thanks very much. And then just my second question, would be around the kind of earnings seasonality, I suppose, through the year. So I think Q1 is, about I think 21% of the full year EBITDA. Wondered if that was kind of EPS should be a similar share of the year or there's something moving around below the line. And when we think about kind of first half the seasonality, are we thinking kind of EBITDA or EPS is like a mid-40s, share of the year?

是的，非常感謝。我的第二個問題是關於全年的獲利季節性。因此我認為第一季的 EBITDA 約佔全年 EBITDA 的 21%。想知道那種每股盈餘是否應該是與今年相似的份額，或者線下是否有東西在移動。當我們考慮上半年的季節性時，我們是否認為 EBITDA 或 EPS 佔全年份額約為 40% 左右？

Well, your earnings are going to improve through the year as you pay down your interest expense, and so we have a plan to pay that down by $50 million in the year. So that gets incrementally better as you move through the year. Your tax rate is relatively consistent as you move through the year. So those are the below the line drivers if you will. And then just the sequential improvement in EBITDA, especially in back half versus first half and related margins is fairly significant as mix improves in the back half of the year, especially as factory automation becomes a greater percentage of the mix in the AMC segment. And then finally synergies do accrue through the year, the $54 million continues to accrue by quarter and so that will also weigh in on the progression.

嗯，隨著你償還利息支出，你的收入將會在一年內提高，因此我們計劃在今年償還 5000 萬美元。因此，隨著時間的推移，情況會逐漸改善。您的稅率在一年內相對穩定。如果你願意的話，這些就是低於標準的驅動因素。然後，EBITDA 的連續改善，特別是下半年與上半年相比，相關利潤率的改善相當顯著，因為下半年產品組合有所改善，特別是隨著工廠自動化在 AMC 部門產品組合中所佔的比例越來越大。最後，綜效會在全年不斷累積，5,400 萬美元會按季度繼續累積，因此這也會對進展產生影響。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thanks, Julian.

謝謝，朱利安。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hi, good morning, thank you. Yeah, just to follow up on IPS as you as you think about kind of the outlook that you've you've provided for '25. And I'm just curious as thinking about these pushouts that that impacted you in the fourth quarter. But then it looks like the implied -- and I know there's some probably a bigger currency impact, but the decline changes in the fourth quarter or in the first quarters is a, bigger step down. So I'm just trying to marry that that push out comment with what looks to be a little bit more attraction from an order perspective, both in the quarter and then what you flagged for January, relative to that step down in the first quarter.

你好，早安，謝謝。是的，只是為了跟進 IPS，因為您正在思考您為 25 年提供的展望。我只是很好奇，想想這些延遲對您在第四季的影響。但它看起來像是隱含的——我知道可能會有更大的貨幣影響，但第四季或第一季的下降變化是更大的下降。因此，我只是想將這種推遲的評論與從訂單角度看起來更有吸引力的東西結合起來，無論是在本季度，還是在 1 月份，相對於第一季度的下降，你標記的 1 月份的情況都是如此。

And then maybe I guess part B of the question is just, with distribution being such a big component of that business. The kind of flattish year over year numbers stood out because I think the at least the messaging from the public distributors is a bit more optimistic. So maybe just your com your comments on those two parts again just focusing on the IPS business. Thank you.

那麼我猜問題的 B 部分可能是，分銷是該業務的重要組成部分。與去年同期相比持平的數字之所以引人注目，是因為我認為至少來自公共分銷商的資訊更為樂觀一些。因此，也許您對這兩部分的評論只是再次關注 IPS 業務。謝謝。

Yeah, so, hey Tim, thanks for the question. I'm going to try to go backwards, with your question I'll answer the second first which is you're right about 50% of our business does go through distribution. Listen, I think overall our guidance and forecasting for this year is measured. We're going to be measured. We want to make sure that we're coming out and have the ability to execute and perform in 2025 well. And so that's that's really how I want to answer the second part of the question.

是的，嘿提姆，謝謝你的提問。我將嘗試倒著回答你的問題，首先我會回答第二個問題，也就是說你是對的，我們大約 50％ 的業務確實透過分銷進行。聽著，我認為總體而言，我們對今年的指導和預測是經過衡量的。我們將受到衡量。我們希望確保我們能夠在 2025 年有良好的執行和表現。這就是我想要回答的問題的第二部分。

The first part of the question though is all around IPS. And we're pleased with the order rates of IPs. We're winning some nice projects. I talked about one which was a mining application that will ship over 18 months. That 4% growth in Q4 it is continuing momentum. However, when you look at Q4 push out -- the majority of the push out actually came from IPS $5 million, 15 million came from IPS.

不過，問題的第一部分與 IPS 有關。我們對IP的訂購率感到滿意。我們贏得了一些不錯的項目。我談到了一個將在 18 個月內發布的採礦應用程式。第四季 4% 的成長勢頭仍在延續。然而，當您查看第四季度的支出時 — — 大部分支出實際上來自 IPS，其中 500 萬美元、1500 萬美元來自 IPS。

A lot of the loading of our orders right now are longer scheduled. They're scheduled into the second half of the year even for IPS. And so that's why you see first quarter being a little bit lighter in IPS, but the backlogs building and giving us confidence in a step progression through the year. But again I'll add, and I'll end with a comment of, we're being very measured in our approach to forecasting top line for 2025.

我們目前的許多訂單的裝載時間都是延長的。甚至對 IPS 來說，他們的計畫也安排到了下半年。因此，您會看到第一季的 IPS 業務稍微輕鬆一些，但積壓訂單不斷增加，這讓我們對全年的逐步進展充滿信心。但我還是要補充一點，最後我想說的是，我們在預測 2025 年營收方面採取了非常慎重的方法。

It makes sense given in what we've endured the last couple years. I get it. Thank you, Louis.

考慮到過去幾年我們經歷的一切，這是有道理的。我得到它。謝謝你，路易斯。

Yeah, thanks, Tim.

是的，謝謝，提姆。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning. I apologize if maybe you've covered this topic already because I've been juggling two calls. But on the -- within PES, obviously you've had these headwinds from the non-US commercial HVC and kind of broader commercial federation. So just wondering what the visibility is for improvements in there and I don't know if you can be more specific in terms of what you're assuming for residential HBC in the first half of 2025?

謝謝。早安.如果您可能已經討論過這個話題，我深感抱歉，因為我一直在接聽兩通電話。但在 PES 內部，顯然你面臨來自非美國商業 HVC 和更廣泛的商業聯盟的阻力。所以只是想知道那裡改進的可見性是什麼，我不知道您是否可以更具體地說明您對 2025 年上半年住宅 HBC 的假設？

Yeah, so, Nigel, thanks for the question. We believe that general commercial and PES is very well linked to ISM. And so as ISM starts to strengthen, we think North America will benefit, we do not see any strengthening in Europe or China at this time. And so that's really the most of the visibility. As you well know, our PES segment is our shortest cycle business and our backlog is only 60-plus days. And so we're very reliant on book ship there. But we're not feeling real confident on outside the US.

是的，奈傑爾，謝謝你的提問。我們認為，一般商業和 PES 與 ISM 有很好的聯繫。因此，隨著 ISM 開始走強，我們認為北美將從中受益，但目前我們尚未看到歐洲或中國出現任何走強跡象。所以這確實是最顯著的。眾所周知，我們的 PES 部門是我們週期最短的業務，我們的積壓訂單只有 60 天以上。所以我們非常依賴那裡的圖書運輸。但我們對美國以外的情況並不太有信心。

I'm cautiously optimistic about the industrial space in the US, but we've got to see it sustained with -- we've got to see it sustained through ISM. And then with regards to residential HVAC, Rob comment on this a little bit, and I appreciate your juggling calls, but hopefully I'll mirror what Rob said earlier, which was basically first quarter is weighted down by the A2L transition and the pull forward to Q4.

我對美國的工業空間持謹慎樂觀的態度，但我們必須看到它透過 ISM 得以維持。然後關於住宅暖通空調，Rob 對此發表了一些評論，我很感謝您的電話溝通，但希望我能重複 Rob 之前所說的，基本上第一季受到 A2L 過渡和第四季度提前的影響。

Now we feel a little bit confident though coming out of January because orders were up about 3% in res the HVAC. But we're expecting first quarter to be down and then successively improve or progressively improve as the year progresses.

現在，我們對 1 月份的業績感到有點信心，因為 HVAC 領域的訂單增長了約 3%。但我們預計第一季會有所下降，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸改善或逐步改善。

Okay, that's helpful. And then just a couple of quick ones, a couple of rapid fire ones here. He called out FX pressure to margins in PES, and I think with AMC as well. I just want to understand that a bit better because I've assumed that, the weaker peso that that might help, your margins across your manufacturing footprint in Mexico. And then just can you just clarify if the AMC orders in January, saw the short cycle, business is picking up at all.

好的，這很有幫助。然後這裡只有幾個快速的，幾個快速的。他指出外匯對 PES 的利潤率構成壓力，我認為 AMC 也面臨同樣的壓力。我只是想更好地理解這一點，因為我認為比索貶值可能會對您在墨西哥的製造業務的利潤有幫助。然後您能否澄清一下，AMC 一月份的訂單是否看到了短週期，業務是否有所回升？

Yeah, so I'll take the second half and then we'll take Rob back to the first. Hey, so we saw a run rate of roughly 9% on factory automation short cycle orders over the last three months. And so with AMC being up about 6.3% in January, we do feel like it's gaining a little bit of strength. We're not ready yet to call it on the short cycle factory automation piece, but we're certainly not at bottom, so we feel better there and then, yeah.

是的，所以我會選擇下半場，然後我們會讓 Rob 回到第一半。嘿，我們看到過去三個月工廠自動化短週期訂單的運作率約為 9%。因此，隨著 AMC 股價在 1 月上漲約 6.3%，我們確實感覺到它正在獲得一些力量。我們還沒有準備好在短週期工廠自動化方面稱之為，但我們肯定沒有處於谷底，所以我們現在感覺更好，是的。

So let me take the the FX question. So you're right to assume that the peso moving above 20 it certainly could be providing certain levels of benefit. However, for us, as you may recall, we do hedge, certain currencies, pesos being one of them to satisfy expenses, and so we've been hedging the peso over the last -- for about six quarters and so therefore, our position on the peso is at this time when these hedges settle is in an unfavorable position and will be we expect throughout the year, depending on what happens with it with the paces of going forward.

那麼就讓我來回答外匯問題。因此，您的假設是正確的，比索突破 20 肯定可以帶來一定程度的利益。然而，對我們來說，您可能還記得，我們​​確實對沖某些貨幣，比索就是其中之一，以滿足費用，因此，過去大約六個季度我們一直在對沖比索，因此，目前我們對比索的持倉在這些對沖結算時處於不利地位，並且我們預計全年都會如此，這取決於未來的發展步伐。

But as it sits today it is in an unfavorable position. That's the reason that we're not seeing the benefit. Now we do continue to layer hedges as we move forward for certainty, and as such we should start to see the benefit coming through this year going into 2026. But at this time, we still expect to see headwinds in 2025.

但就目前情況來看，它處於不利地位。這就是我們沒有看到好處的原因。現在，我們確實在繼續分層對沖，以期獲得確定性，因此，我們應該從今年到 2026 年開始看到收益。但目前，我們仍預期 2025 年將面臨阻力。

Okay, makes sense. Thanks, Rob.

好的，有道理。謝謝，羅布。

Thanks, Nigel.

謝謝，奈傑爾。

Vivek Sri, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Vivek Sri。

Hi, this is Vivek on for Jori. Thanks for the question. I want to start off with IPS. You had about 2% organic sales decline in fourth quarter, and that is after about, $25 million push out, so like ex push out. There was some growth in IPS, so why should implied 1Q guidance, which is like down 2% to 6% organic, why should organic step down given orders were positive in fourth quarter and also in January plus push out happened already in fourth quarter?

大家好，我是 Vivek，為 Jori 主持節目。謝謝你的提問。我想從 IPS 開始。第四季度，你們的有機銷售額下降了約 2%，這是在扣除約 2500 萬美元的支出後。IPS 有所成長，那麼為什麼隱含的第一季指引應該是有機下降 2% 到 6%？

Vivek, I appreciate the question. Let me just clarify one point. The pushout was $25 million for the entire enterprise, about $15 million for IPs, but I think your question still stands. And we have -- if you think about visibility of backlog, we have greatest visibility in AMC, but there's still book ship that we have to get in any quarter. Second to IPS and third to PES. IPS, we're basing our forecast of Q1 based on what is shippable in our backlog and an assumption around bulk ship.

Vivek，我很感謝這個問題。讓我澄清一點。整個企業的支出為 2500 萬美元，IP 支出約 1500 萬美元，但我認為您的問題仍然存在。如果你考慮積壓訂單的可見性，我們在 AMC 的可見度最高，但我們在任何季度都必須獲得訂單。僅次於IPS，第三名是PES。IPS，我們根據積壓訂單中可運送的貨物以及散裝貨物的假設來對第一季進行預測。

And so that's the best way I can answer that right now. We absolutely feel like we've gained some nice momentum and shared growth in IPS, and that will continue through this year that we're outgrowing our market, but the way Q1 is coming together with what's in our backlog and our assumptions on book ship, there is pressure on the top line in Q1.

這是目前我能回答這個問題的最佳方式。我們確實感覺到我們在 IPS 方面獲得了一些良好的勢頭和共同增長，而且這種勢頭將持續到今年，我們將超越市場，但第一季的情況、我們的積壓訂單和我們對訂單出貨量的假設，決定了第一季的營收面臨壓力。

That's helpful. And then just on the exit rate for 2025, I think if I'm -- if I heard it right, you said 25% or so you did the margin in 4Q, which would imply like 300-plus basis points of margin expansion year on year. Is -- number one, is my understanding correct that 4Q margin expansion is pretty steep and. Then is most of it really driven by AMC and IPS as like higher margin discrete automation comes back there.

這很有幫助。然後就 2025 年的退出率而言，我想如果我沒聽錯的話，您說的 25% 左右的利潤率是第四季度的利潤率，這意味著利潤率同比擴大了 300 個基點以上。第一，我的理解是否正確，第四季的利潤率成長相當迅猛。那麼，隨著利潤率更高的離散自動化的回歸，其中大部分是否真的是由 AMC 和 IPS 推動的。

So the short answer is yes, it is definitely a mix benefit as we exit the year and we do expect to be exiting at that close that 25% rate, hence the comments. And yes, it does come through those two segments primarily. However, all segments we expect to improve through the year, just most of the benefit we see coming through AMC and IPS.

因此，簡短的回答是肯定的，當我們結束今年時，這絕對是一個混合效益，我們確實期望以 25% 的利率結束今年，因此有這樣的評論。是的，它確實主要透過這兩個部分實現。然而，我們預計所有領域都將在今年得到改善，我們看到大部分好處將來自AMC和IPS。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯托弗·格林。

Hey, good morning guys. I had a question about the free cash flow. You had a a cut on the outlook earlier in the year and then came in a little light. So just curious what some of the misses there involved, if there are any process improvements for modeling and executing free cash flow as as we consider your initial guidance for 2025?

嘿，大家早安。我對自由現金流有疑問。今年早些時候，你的前景被打壓，但隨後又有所好轉。所以只是好奇其中涉及的一些失誤，在我們考慮您對 2025 年的初步指導時，是否有任何針對建模和執行自由現金流的流程改進？

Yeah, it's a fair question, so thanks Chris. I think if you look at the fourth quarter, and how we finished the year, EBITDA that certainly was a contributor here. It came in lower than the guide. But it's really a story of trade working capital, some of it is related to timing, on when those shipments occurred and the and the ability to collect, based on our terms. So that is we don't -- we just see that as timing we don't see it as any sort of an issue there within the quarter.

是的，這是一個公平的問題，所以感謝克里斯。我認為，如果你看看第四季以及我們今年的收官表現，EBITDA 肯定是一個貢獻因素。它的價格低於指南價格。但這實際上是一個貿易營運資本的故事，其中一些與時間有關，與這些貨物的運輸時間以及根據我們的條款收款的能力有關。所以，我們並不認為—我們只是將其視為時間問題，我們認為這在本季不會造成任何問題。

And then there was some an inventory position that we took as we entered the year in terms of what we believed we could reduce our inventory levels by. We made some strategic decisions through the year to invest a bit in inventory ahead of some of the tariff discussions, and so that was some of the reason that we came off of the number. We didn't anticipate that at the time that we set our guide.

當我們進入新的一年時，我們對庫存狀況進行了一些調整，我們認為可以減少庫存水準。我們在今年做出了一些戰略決策，在一些關稅談判之前對庫存進行了一些投資，這也是我們放棄這個數字的原因之一。我們在製定指南時並沒有預料到這一點。

Okay, do you feel like the incentives and compensation packages for operators are aligned well to give confidence in the '25 outlook?

好的，您是否覺得對營運商的激勵和薪酬方案已經很好地協調一致，可以增強對 25 年前景的信心？

We do, because one of the metrics that we measure our teams on is free cash flows specifically from trade working capital as an operating metric.

我們確實如此，因為我們衡量團隊的標準之一是自由現金流，特別是來自貿易營運資本的自由現金流作為營運指標。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Louis Pinkham for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給路易斯·平克漢姆，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, operator, and thanks to our investors and analysts for joining us today. As we look ahead to 2025, we are pleased with our forecast to grow earnings by 10% and are optimistic about our future. Our improving orders momentum is encouraging. We are working many initiatives to accelerate outgrowth with clear signs of progress in our IPS sales and our AMC orders results, and early signs in parts of PEF.

謝謝運營商，也感謝我們的投資者和分析師今天的加入我們。展望 2025 年，我們對獲利成長 10% 的預測感到滿意，並對我們的未來充滿樂觀。我們的訂單不斷改善的勢頭令人鼓舞。我們正在實施多項措施來加速成長，IPS 銷售和 AMC 訂單結果已出現明顯進展跡象，PEF 部分業務也出現了早期跡象。

We still have lots of margin self-help from synergies, and we believe our ability to generate cash remains strong and is poised to accelerate in 2025, which bodes well for debt pay down and over time robust upside from other forms of capital deployment. In short, we are confident that growing momentum behind our ample value creation opportunities is becoming a more dominant part of our Regal Rexnord story.

我們仍然可以透過協同效應獲得大量的利潤，我們相信我們創造現金的能力仍然強勁，並將在 2025 年加速，這有利於償還債務，隨著時間的推移，其他形式的資本配置將帶來強勁的上升空間。簡而言之，我們相信，我們充足的價值創造機會背後的不斷增長的勢頭將成為我們 Regal Rexnord 故事中更主導的部分。

Thank you again for joining us today and thank you for your interest in Regal Rexnord.

再次感謝您今天加入我們，並感謝您對 Regal Rexnord 的關注。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。