Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Regal Rexnord second-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Regal Rexnord 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Robert Barry, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁羅伯特·巴里 (Robert Barry)。請繼續。

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Regal Rexnord's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Louis Pinkham, our Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Rehard, our Chief Financial Officer.

偉大的。謝謝你，接線生。早安，歡迎參加 Regal Rexnord 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Louis Pinkham；以及我們的財務長 Rob Rehard。

Before we begin, a note regarding the slide presentation due to a minor technical issue at our webcasting firm, those who are viewing our second-quarter presentation slides on the webcast will need to manually advance the slides during the presentation versus our typical practice of auto advancing them on our end.

在我們開始之前，請注意由於我們的網路廣播公司存在一個小技術問題，有關幻燈片演示的說明，那些在網路廣播上觀看我們第二季度演示幻燈片的人將需要在演示期間手動推進幻燈片，而不是我們典型的自動做法在我們這邊推進它們。

Moving to Slide 2. I’d like to remind you that during today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results plans and business operations, our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC which are available on the regalrexnord.com website.

轉到投影片 2。我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議中，您可能會聽到與我們未來財務業績計劃和業務運營相關的前瞻性陳述，由於多種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果存在重大差異，這我們在今天的新聞稿和向 SEC 提交的報告中進行了更詳細的描述，這些報告可在 regalrexnord.com 網站上取得。

Also on this slide, we state that we are presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful to our investors. We have included reconciliations between the non-GAAP financial information and the GAAP equivalent in the press release and in these presentation materials. Turning to Slide 3. Let me briefly review the agenda for today's call. Louis will lead off with his opening comments and overview of our 2Q performance and an introduction to our Power Systems business.

此外，在這張投影片上，我們也指出，我們正在提出某些我們認為對投資者有用的非公認會計準則財務指標。我們在新聞稿和這些簡報資料中納入了非 GAAP 財務資訊與 GAAP 同等財務資訊之間的調整表。轉到投影片 3。讓我簡要回顧一下今天電話會議的議程。路易斯將首先發表他的開場評論和對我們第二季度業績的概述以及我們的電力系統業務的介紹。

Rob Rehard will then present our second-quarter financial results in more detail and review our latest 2024 guidance. We will then move to Q&A, after which Louis will have some closing remarks.

隨後，Rob Rehard 將更詳細地介紹我們第二季的財務業績，並回顧我們最新的 2024 年指引。然後我們將進入問答環節，之後路易斯將發表一些結束語。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Louis.

這樣，我會將電話轉給路易斯。

Thanks, Rob and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss our second-quarter results to get an update on our business and for your continued interest in Regal Rexnord. Our team delivered a strong second quarter with outperformance on nearly every metric and especially strong margin outperformance at IPS. So before I go any further, I want to thank our 30,000 Regal Rexnord associates for their hard work and disciplined execution, delivering strong second-quarter performance, while continuing to execute our many longer-term value creation drivers.

謝謝羅布，大家早安。感謝您與我們一起討論我們的第二季業績，了解我們業務的最新情況，並感謝您對 Regal Rexnord 的持續關注。我們的團隊在第二季表現強勁，幾乎所有指標都表現出色，尤其是 IPS 的利潤率表現出色。因此，在進一步討論之前，我要感謝我們 30,000 名 Regal Rexnord 員工的辛勤工作和嚴格的執行力，他們在第二季度實現了強勁的業績，同時繼續執行我們許多長期價值創造驅動力。

Turning to our results in more detail. Sales in the second quarter were down 7% on an organic basis, excluding Industrial Systems. As a reminder, we closed on the sale of Industrial Systems at the end of April and so it is in our reported financials only for the first month of the quarter. Also recall that due to the timing of the Altra acquisition closing very late in the first quarter of 2023, we pushed five days of sales into last year's second quarter. And while immaterial to our annual performance was a roughly two-point headwind to growth this quarter.

更詳細地討論我們的結果。不包括工業系統在內，第二季銷售額有機下降 7%。提醒一下，我們在四月底結束了工業系統的銷售，因此它只出現在我們報告的本季第一個月的財務數據中。另請記住，由於 Altra 收購的時間在 2023 年第一季很晚才完成，因此我們將五天的銷售推遲到去年第二季。儘管對我們的年度業績並不重要，但本季的成長遇到了大約兩個百分點的阻力。

Performance in the quarter continued to be impacted by weak end-market demand and destocking in North America residential HVAC, weakness in commercial HVAC outside North America and pressure in discrete factory automation. Orders in the quarter on a daily basis were down 1.5%, excluding Industrial, but up approximately 2% excluding a large atypical blanket order received in the pool business in the prior year period, which we see as a more relevant performance indicator for Regal. This positive inflection was led by AMC, which saw orders rise 12% versus prior year, followed by IPS orders, which were flat following 8 quarters of decline.

本季的業績持續受到終端市場需求疲軟和北美住宅暖通空調去庫存、北美以外商業暖通空調疲軟以及離散工廠自動化壓力的影響。本季訂單日均下降1.5%（不包括工業），但不包括去年同期在池業務中收到的大量非典型一攬子訂單（我們認為這是與Regal 更相關的業績指標），則增長約2% 。這種積極的變化是由 AMC 帶動的，該公司的訂單比去年同期增長了 12%，其次是 IPS 訂單，該訂單在連續 8 個季度下降後持平。

In July, daily organic orders were up roughly 5% continuing to build on the momentum we saw in the second quarter. We read this order performance as encouraging signs that all our segments can deliver positive top-line growth in the second half. However, as Rob will elaborate, we now expect this second half ramp to occur at a slightly more gradual pace in the AMC segment versus what was factored into our prior forecast. Despite second-quarter top-line pressures, margins in the quarter were strong. Our adjusted gross margin came in at a record 38.1% excluding Industrial. Adjusted EBITDA margin, excluding Industrial, was 22.2% and reflects achieving $25 million of synergies in the second quarter.

7 月，每日有機訂單成長約 5%，繼續延續第二季的動能。我們認為這項訂單表現是令人鼓舞的跡象，表明我們所有部門都可以在下半年實現積極的營收成長。然而，正如 Rob 所闡述的那樣，我們現在預計 AMC 領域下半年的成長速度將比我們之前預測的要稍微緩慢一些。儘管第二季面臨營收壓力，但該季度的利潤率依然強勁。不包括工業在內，我們的調整後毛利率達到創紀錄的 38.1%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率（不包括工業）為 22.2%，反映出第二季度實現了 2,500 萬美元的綜效。

We remain on track to achieve $90 million of synergies this year. Lastly, we delivered approximately $136 million of adjusted free cash flow in the quarter. That cash flow, along with proceeds from the industrial sales enabled us to pay down approximately $481 million of gross debt in the quarter, which combined with our first quarter results, equates to $618 million of debt repayments in the first half. We ended the quarter with net debt to EBITDA leverage at 3.6 times. Nice progress on delevering.

今年我們仍有望實現 9,000 萬美元的綜效。最後，我們在本季交付了約 1.36 億美元的調整後自由現金流。這些現金流加上工業銷售收入，使我們能夠在本季償還約 4.81 億美元的總債務，加上我們第一季的業績，相當於上半年償還了 6.18 億美元的債務。本季末，我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 槓桿比率為 3.6 倍。去槓桿化進展良好。

We expect that our annual adjusted cash flow this year plus net proceeds from the Industrial Systems sale should enable approximately $900 million of debt pay down in 2024. In summary, a solid quarter of controllable execution by our team. Shifting to the next slide. Each quarter I've been introducing one of our principal AMC businesses, to help investors better appreciate how we are well-positioned to accelerate profitable growth.

我們預計，今年調整後的年度現金流加上工業系統出售的淨收益應能在 2024 年償還約 9 億美元的債務。總而言之，我們團隊的可控執行力在這一季度表現出色。轉到下一張投影片。每個季度我都會介紹我們的一項主要 AMC 業務，以幫助投資者更了解我們如何做好加速獲利成長的準備。

This quarter, I’ll cover Power Systems. As you can see on the left-hand side of this slide, this is about a $125 million business and has been experiencing very strong growth, posting a 25% compounded annual growth rate over the last three years, in large part due to its primary focus on the data center market with a rapid adoption of AI plus ongoing growth in e-commerce are fueling significant data center expansion. This is a US weighted business going to market under the Thomson brand.

本季度，我將介紹電力系統。正如您在這張投影片的左側所看到的，這是一項價值約1.25 億美元的業務，並且一直在經歷非常強勁的成長，在過去三年中複合年增長率為25%，這很大程度上歸功於其主要業務專注於資料中心市場，人工智慧的快速採用加上電子商務的持續成長正在推動資料中心的顯著擴張。這是一家以 Thomson 品牌上市的美國加權業務。

As we lay out on the right side of this slide, our principal products include a paralleling switchgear and automatic transfer switches, along with the field services business. Our highly engineered products are used to provide standby and backup power in mission-critical applications where even the briefest interruption of power supply can be disruptive to end users.

正如我們在這張投影片右側所展示的那樣，我們的主要產品包括並聯開關設備和自動轉換開關，以及現場服務業務。我們精心設計的產品用於在關鍵任務應用中提供待機和備用電源，在這些應用中，即使是最短暫的電源中斷也會對最終用戶造成乾擾。

Our services business helps our customers ensure 24/7 uptime, create stickier customer relationships and benefits Regal by creating a recurring revenue stream. The primary applications presented on the lower right are data centers, which comprise the majority of Power Systems sales along with smart manufacturing, medical and critical public infrastructure, in particular water and wastewater management. Our Power Systems team is winning in these high-growth markets for reasons we list on the lower left.

我們的服務業務幫助我們的客戶確保 24/7 的正常運作時間，建立更牢固的客戶關係，並透過創造經常性收入流使 Regal 受益。右下角展示的主要應用是資料中心，其中包括大部分電力系統銷售額以及智慧製造、醫療和關鍵公共基礎設施，特別是水和廢水管理。我們的電力系統團隊在這些高成長市場中取得了勝利，原因列於左下角。

At the top of the list is deep application expertise. We focus on some of the most complex paramount management challenges, such as in co-location data centers, where multiple customers each have unique power management needs. Our business is also differentiated by its best-in-class lead times, exceptional quality and proprietary technology, most notably in our switchgear controllers that enable smooth load transitions and minimal transient required in sensitive applicants.

排在第一位的是深厚的應用專業知識。我們專注於一些最複雜、最重要的管理挑戰，例如在主機代管資料中心，多個客戶都有獨特的電源管理需求。我們的業務也因其一流的交貨時間、卓越的品質和專有技術而脫穎而出，尤其是我們的開關設備控制器，可實現敏感應用程式所需的平穩負載轉換和最小瞬態。

We are also investing for growth and see future share gains tied to new products, expanding our services footprint, augmenting our sales organization and notably, building on recent successes with our lean initiatives to scale up our manufacturing capacity, largely in best value regions. We believe that all of these attributes, along with our growth investments should translate into at least double -- low-double-digit sales growth at enterprise accretive margins over our three-year planning period.

我們也為成長進行投資，並看到未來的份額成長與新產品、擴大我們的服務足跡、增強我們的銷售組織有關，特別是在最近成功的基礎上，透過精益計劃擴大我們的製造能力，主要是在最有價值的地區。我們相信，在我們的三年規劃期內，所有這些屬性以及我們的成長投資應該轉化為企業利潤率至少翻倍——低兩位數的銷售成長。

In addition, our strong Thomson market position enables pull-through opportunities from our other businesses, including fan filter units, air moving solutions and other products within the portfolio. This makes Power Systems a critical component of Regal Rexnord's data center growth strategy.

此外，我們強大的湯姆遜市場地位為我們的其他業務提供了拉動機會，包括風機過濾裝置、空氣輸送解決方案和產品組合中的其他產品。這使得 Power Systems 成為 Regal Rexnord 資料中心成長策略的關鍵組成部分。

And with that I will turn the call over to Rob.

然後我會把電話轉給羅布。

Thanks, Louis, and good morning everyone. I would also like to thank our global team for their hard work and disciplined execution, which delivered results that exceeded our targets for the quarter. As a reminder, we closed the Altra acquisition at the end of first quarter last year. And so having lapped that one year anniversary, we no longer need to consider current period operating performance on a pro forma basis when discussing our AMC and IPS segments.

謝謝，路易斯，大家早安。我還要感謝我們的全球團隊的辛勤工作和嚴格執行，他們所取得的成果超出了我們本季的目標。提醒一下，我們在去年第一季末完成了對 Altra 的收購。因此，在度過一周年紀念日之後，我們在討論我們的 AMC 和 IPS 部門時不再需要在預計的基礎上考慮當前期間的經營業績。

Now let us review our operating performance by segment. Starting with automation and motion control or AMC, net sales in the second quarter were down 10% to the prior year on an organic basis, which is slightly better performance than we had expected. The results reflect strength in the aerospace, data center and medical end-markets, which was more than offset by lingering weakness at global discrete factory automation OEMs.

現在讓我們按部門回顧一下我們的經營業績。從自動化和運動控制（AMC）開始，第二季的淨銷售額較上年同期有機下降 10%，表現略優於我們的預期。結果反映了航空航太、資料中心和醫療終端市場的強勁勢頭，但全球離散工廠自動化原始設備製造商的持續疲軟足以抵消這一強勁勢頭。

Notably, our second quarter performance reflects an approximately 6% sequential improvement and growth in all of our divisions outside of factory automation. From a first half perspective, which smooths out some of the lumpiness we see in this segment, pro forma organic sales were down 7.4%. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 22.5% and slightly below our expectations on weaker mix. Given the lower volume in discrete factory automation which generally runs with margins above fleet average for this segment, we see an unfavorable mix impact when these volumes drop.

值得注意的是，我們第二季的業績反映了工廠自動化以外的所有部門的環比改善和成長約 6%。從上半年的角度來看，有機銷售額預計將下降了 7.4%，這消除了我們在該領域看到的一些波動。本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.5%，略低於我們對較弱組合的預期。鑑於離散工廠自動化的銷量較低，且其利潤率通常高於該細分市場的平均水平，因此當這些銷量下降時，我們會看到不利的組合影響。

Orders in AMC in the second quarter were up 12% versus prior year on a daily basis, a notable inflection after six quarters of declines. Book-to-bill in the second quarter was 1.05. In the quarter, we continued to experience healthy booking rates for longer cycle projects at aerospace, medical and data center customers. But with the majority of requested delivery dates landing in late 2024 or early 2025. This timing combined with continued caution and slower capital investment ramp-ups at certain customers in our shorter-cycle factory automation and industrial OEM end markets means that we are now forecasting a more measured pace of recovery these end markets and in turn, for AMC overall in 2024.

AMC 第二季的訂單日均比去年同期成長 12%，這是在連續六個季度下降之後出現的顯著變化。第二季的訂單出貨比為1.05。本季度，我們在航空航太、醫療和資料中心客戶的較長週期專案中繼續保持健康的預訂率。但大多數要求的交付日期都在 2024 年底或 2025 年初。這一時機加上持續的謹慎態度以及我們較短週期的工廠自動化和工業OEM 終端市場中某些客戶的資本投資增速放緩，意味著我們現在預測這些終端市場的復甦步伐將更加謹慎，反過來，對於AMC 整體而言2024年。

July orders for AMC were up roughly 10% on a daily organic basis providing further evidence that we are gaining momentum into the second half, but again with the anticipated pace of recovery tempered versus our prior expectations, as delivery dates on these orders are weighted to fourth quarter 2024 or early 2025.

AMC 7 月訂單日均成長約 10%，進一步證明我們下半年勢頭強勁，但預期復甦步伐與我們先前的預期相比有所放緩，因為這些訂單的交付日期被加權2024 年第四季或2025年初。

I’ll share more color on how this performance impacts our outlook for AMC later in the call. Turning to Industrial Powertrain Solutions or IPS. Net sales in the second quarter were down 2.8% to the prior year on an organic basis, which was slightly better than our expectation. From a first half perspective, pro forma organic sales were down 1.9%, but we are gaining momentum here, as we move into the third quarter and second half. The results reflect strength in metals and mining and power generation that we believe is driven by stimulus investments in mega projects, net of weakness in agriculture, construction equipment and general industrial markets.

我將在稍後的電話會議中分享更多關於這種表現如何影響我們對 AMC 前景的看法。轉向工業動力總成解決方案或 IPS。第二季淨銷售額較上年同期下降 2.8%，略優於我們的預期。從上半年的角度來看，有機銷售額將下降了 1.9%，但隨著進入第三季和下半年，我們的勢頭正在增強。結果反映了金屬、採礦和發電的強勁勢頭，我們認為這是由大型項目的刺激性投資推動的，扣除了農業、建築設備和一般工業市場的疲軟。

Sales synergies were a tailwind worth a couple of points to growth rate in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 25.8%, above our expectations and up 220 basis points versus prior year. This strong performance reflects better than anticipated mix as well as continued strong synergy realization, partially offset by headwinds from lower volumes. Orders and IPS on a daily basis were flat in the second quarter which was great to see after eight quarters of declines.

銷售綜效為本季的成長率帶來了幾個百分點的推動力。本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.8%，高於我們的預期，比去年同期成長 220 個基點。這種強勁的業績反映出好於預期的組合以及持續強勁的協同效應的實現，但部分被銷量下降的不利因素所抵消。第二季的日均訂單量和 IPS 持平，這在經歷了八個季度的下降之後是一個很好的結果。

And as I mentioned previously, appears to signal momentum going into the second half. Performance reflects particular strength in power gen and marine net of weakness in agriculture and construction equipment and broad-based sluggishness across much of general industrial. Book-to-bill in the second quarter was 0.97. In July, orders on our daily organic basis were up 3.5%. We are pleased to see an inflection of positive orders growth. This performance not only gives us further confidence in our second half outlook for our IPS, but also provides more evidence that IPS is outperforming its end markets, considering macro indicators such as ISM and certain cautious intra-quarter peer reports that suggest a number of IPS' short-cycle industrial end marks are sluggish.

正如我之前提到的，這似乎預示著下半年的勢頭。業績反映了發電和船舶網的特別強勁、農業和建築設備的疲軟以及大部分一般工業的普遍低迷。第二季的訂單出貨比為0.97。 7 月份，我們的每日有機訂單量增加了 3.5%。我們很高興看到訂單積極增長。這一表現不僅讓我們對IPS 下半年的前景更加充滿信心，而且還提供了更多證據，表明IPS 的表現優於其終端市場，考慮到ISM 等宏觀指標和某些謹慎的季度內同行報告，這些報告顯示許多IPS短週期工業終端表現低迷。

Now turning to Power Efficiency Solutions, or PES. Organic sales in the second quarter were down 10.1% to the prior year on an organic basis which is ahead of our expectations. In the second quarter, the business continued to be impacted by channel destocking and weaker underlying demand in the North America residential HVAC market and headwinds in the European and Asia Pacific commercial HVAC businesses.

現在轉向電源效率解決方案（PES）。第二季的有機銷售額比去年同期下降 10.1%，超出了我們的預期。第二季度，該業務繼續受到渠道去庫存、北美住宅暖通空調市場潛在需求疲軟以及歐洲和亞太商業暖通空調業務不利因素的影響。

Commercial HVAC in North America continued to be a bright spot. As we commented when we entered the second quarter we were cautious in our estimated pace of recovery in residential HVAC, given the persistent headwinds we faced. As we progress through the second quarter, the timing of demand was slightly better than we anticipated, and we ended the quarter ahead of our expectations. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic that we have now moved past most of the pervasive inventory destocking headwinds we've seen over the past 1.5 years. The adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter for PES was 16.1%, consistent with our expectation but down from the prior year on lower volumes and weaker mix. We continue to expect the PES margins will be stronger in the back half, as volumes improve.

北美的商業暖通空調繼續成為亮點。正如我們在進入第二季時所評論的那樣，鑑於我們面臨的持續阻力，我們對住宅暖通空調的復甦速度持謹慎態度。隨著第二季的進展，需求時機略好於我們的預期，我們提前結束了本季。總體而言，我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，認為我們現在已經克服了過去 1.5 年中普遍存在的庫存去庫存阻力。本季 PES 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 16.1%，與我們的預期一致，但由於銷量下降和產品組合較弱，較上年有所下降。我們繼續預計，隨著銷售量的改善，後半段的 PES 利潤率將會更高。

Shifting to orders. Orders in PES for the second quarter were down 14% on an organic daily basis, but only down 3%, excluding a large blanket order in the pool business booked in the prior year period. The adjusted order decline primarily reflects weakness in commercial HVAC outside North America. Notably, daily orders in the quarter for our legacy North America Climate business were up low-single digits and a positive sign of momentum in residential HVAC. While this is encouraging, we believe a portion of the residential HVAC channel continues to have elevated inventories, particularly at certain HVAC distributors and that underlying volumes in residential HVAC are down slightly.

轉向訂單。第二季 PES 訂單以日有機計算下降 14%，但僅下降 3%，不包括去年同期預訂的池業務中的大筆總訂單。調整後的訂單下降主要反映了北美以外商業暖通空調市場的疲軟。值得注意的是，本季我們傳統的北美氣候業務的每日訂單增長了低個位數，這是住宅暖通空調領域發展勢頭的積極跡象。雖然這令人鼓舞，但我們相信部分住宅暖通空調管道的庫存持續增加，特別是在某些暖通空調分銷商處，並且住宅暖通空調的基礎銷量略有下降。

Book-to-bill in the quarter for PES was 1.02. Daily orders in July were up 3% versus prior year, keeping us confident that we are seeing residential HVAC end markets improving but also continuing to reflect some weakness in commercial HVAC outside North America. On the following slide, we highlight some additional financial updates for your reference. Notably, on the right side of this page, you'll see we ended the quarter with total debt of approximately [$5.8 million] and net debt of $5.25 billion.

本季的訂單出貨比 PES 為 1.02。 7 月的每日訂單比去年同期增長了 3%，這讓我們對住宅 HVAC 終端市場的改善充滿信心，但也繼續反映出北美以外商業 HVAC 的一些疲軟。在下一張投影片中，我們重點介紹了一些其他財務更新供您參考。值得注意的是，在本頁右側，您會看到本季末我們的總債務約為 [580 萬美元]，淨債務為 52.5 億美元。

We repaid approximately $481 million of gross debt in the quarter, which includes net proceeds from the Industrial Systems sale. Net debt declined by approximately $465 million. Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $136.4 million, and we are on track to deliver $700 million of adjusted free cash flow this year, consistent with our prior plans, we expect to deploy the majority of this free cash flow to debt reduction. As a result we are on track to pay down approximately $900 million of our debt in 2024.

我們在本季償還了約 4.81 億美元的總債務，其中包括工業系統出售的淨收益。淨債務減少約 4.65 億美元。本季度調整後自由現金流為 1.364 億美元，今年我們預計將實現 7 億美元調整後自由現金流，這與我們之前的計劃一致，我們預計將大部分自由現金流用於減少債務。因此，我們預計在 2024 年償還約 9 億美元的債務。

Now moving to the outlook. We are making several adjustments to our guidance for 2024, which are detailed in the table on the right-hand side of this slide. Also included in the table is our standard disclosure on below the line items with specific indications for what has changed. As a reminder, our enterprise results include the recently sold Industrial Systems business for the first four months of the year, which equates to approximately [$160 million] in sales and $13 million in adjusted EBITDA.

現在轉向展望。我們正在對 2024 年的指導進行一些調整，本投影片右側的表格詳細介紹了這些調整。表中還包括我們在行項目下方的標準揭露，其中具體說明了已發生的變更。提醒一下，我們的企業業績包括今年前四個月最近出售的工業系統業務，相當於約 [1.6 億美元] 的銷售額和 1,300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

We are reducing our sales outlook by approximately $45 million. As we entered the year, we commented that our full year outlook called for a rebound in both residential HVAC and factory automation. As I've commented today, we are finally seeing the early stages of a rebound in residential HVAC and even saw a bit of demand pull forward in the quarter. However, we now expect a softer second half ramp in our automation and motion control segment.

我們將銷售預期下調約 4500 萬美元。進入新年之際，我們評論說，我們的全年展望預計住宅暖通空調和工廠自動化都會反彈。正如我今天所評論的，我們終於看到了住宅暖通空調反彈的早期階段，甚至看到本季的需求有所成長。然而，我們現在預計自動化和運動控制領域下半年的成長將更加疲軟。

More specifically, as we commented when we reported first quarter, we were seeing a strong surge in funnel activity within certain of our AMC businesses and started a longer-cycle backlog building to the third and fourth quarters. However, as we move through the second quarter and now early into the third quarter, we are seeing delivery dates on new orders shifting later into 2024 or early 2025.

更具體地說，正如我們在報告第一季時所評論的那樣，我們看到某些 AMC 業務中的漏斗活動大幅增加，並開始在第三和第四季度開始更長週期的積壓工作。然而，隨著第二季和第三季初的到來，我們發現新訂單的交付日期將推遲到 2024 年晚些時候或 2025 年初。

Given that we continue to see strong orders, book-to-bill above one and growing funnel activity in AMC, we see this as purely timing but it is having an impact on our current year outlook. Our outlook for adjusted EBITDA margin is 22.4% which is roughly 0.5 point below our prior outlook due to the lower sales volumes and slightly weaker mix.

鑑於我們繼續看到強勁的訂單、訂單出貨比高於 1 以及 AMC 的漏斗活動不斷增長，我們認為這純粹是時機，但它對我們今年的前景產生了影響。由於銷售下降和產品組合略有減弱，我們對調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的預期為 22.4%，比先前的預期低約 0.5 個百分點。

Below the line, our latest forecast for interest expense is now $6 million higher or $376 million, reflecting the impact of upward SOFR rate revisions versus our prior estimate along with the expected cadence of free cash flow in the year and the associated impact on interest expense. We are also providing our latest expectations for depreciation, amortization and effective tax rate. The net impact of these changes reduces the midpoint of our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range by $0.40 to $9.60 which was the low end of our prior range.

在此線之下，我們對利息支出的最新預測現在高出600 萬美元，即3.76 億美元，反映了SOFR 利率上調與我們之前估計相比的影響，以及今年自由現金流的預期節奏以及對利息支出的相關影響。我們還提供了對折舊、攤提和有效稅率的最新預期。這些變化的淨影響將我們調整後的稀釋每股收益指引範圍的中點降低了 0.40 美元至 9.60 美元，這是我們先前範圍的下限。

Our new adjusted diluted EPS guidance range for full year 2024 is now $9.40 to $9.80 which compares to our prior range of $9.60 to $10.40. The changes we are making today are roughly a 4% reduction in EPS and a 2.5% reduction in EBITDA versus the full year guidance midpoint we provided last quarter.

我們新調整後的 2024 年全年稀釋每股收益指引範圍目前為 9.40 美元至 9.80 美元，而先前的指導範圍為 9.60 美元至 10.40 美元。與我們上季度提供的全年指導中點相比，我們今天所做的變更大約是 EPS 減少 4%，EBITDA 減少 2.5%。

Finally, we continue to expect adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $700 million this year. And once again, we plan to use the majority of this cash to pay down roughly $900 million of our debt by the end of this year. Our ability to maintain our expectation for $700 million of free cash flow this year, despite lower expected EBITDA is due to updated working capital improvement opportunities, our teams are projected to execute in late Q3 and throughout Q4, especially in the area of inventory reductions.

最後，我們仍然預計今年調整後的自由現金流約為 7 億美元。我們再次計劃在今年年底前使用大部分現金來償還約 9 億美元的債務。我們有能力維持今年7 億美元自由現金流的預期，儘管預期EBITDA 較低是由於更新的營運資本改善機會，但我們的團隊預計將在第三季末和整個第四季度執行，特別是在庫存削減方面。

On this next slide, we provide more specific expectations for our performance by segment, on revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin for the third quarter and for the full year. Note that the 2024 guided growth rates for AMC and IPS sales are calculated versus 2023 pro forma sales results.

在下一張投影片中，我們對第三季和全年的各部門業績、收入和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提供了更具體的預期。請注意，2024 年 AMC 和 IPS 銷售額的指導成長率是根據 2023 年預計銷售結果計算的。

Starting with AMC. For third quarter, we expect sales to be approximately $420 million in adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 24%. For the full year, we now expect AMC sales to be down low-single digits, a reduction versus our prior expectations of flat, reflecting a softer second half ramp.

從AMC開始。我們預計第三季銷售額約為 4.2 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 24%。就全年而言，我們現在預計 AMC 銷售額將下降低個位數，與我們先前持平的預期相比有所下降，反映出下半年成長放緩。

With that said, we feel good about the longer cycle part of the business, with AMC orders, as stated earlier, up 12% year-over-year in the quarter. We now expect AMC's 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 24%, the low end of the prior target range, reflecting our weaker volume outlook.

話雖如此，我們對業務的較長週期部分感到滿意，如前所述，本季 AMC 訂單年增 12%。我們現在預計 AMC 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 24%，是先前目標範圍的下限，反映了我們較弱的銷售前景。

Shifting to IPS. For third quarter, we expect sales to be approximately $655 million and adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 26%. For the full year, we continue to expect IPS sales to be roughly flat showing the momentum that is building in this business tied to healthy sales synergies. We continue to expect IPS' 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 26%, reflecting nice tailwinds from synergies and overall business performance.

轉向 IPS。我們預計第三季銷售額約為 6.55 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 26%。就全年而言，我們繼續預期 IPS 銷售額將大致持平，這表明該業務正在建立的勢頭與健康的銷售協同效應相關。我們繼續預期 IPS 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 26%，反映出綜效和整體業務績效帶來的良好推動力。

Finally, PES. For third quarter, we expect sales to be approximately $455 million and adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 18%. For the full year, we continue to expect sales to decline at a mid-single-digit rate, but we now expect margins to be approximately 16.5%, near the lower end of our prior target range reflecting weaker mix in the motors businesses.

最後是PES。我們預計第三季銷售額約為 4.55 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 18%。就全年而言，我們繼續預期銷售額將以中個位數的速度下降，但我們現在預計利潤率約為 16.5%，接近我們先前目標範圍的下限，反映出汽車業務組合的疲軟。

While it is disappointing that we are seeing a slower second half ramp for AMC, I think it is important to consider our results in the broader context of where we are taking Regal Rexnord, a clear path to top quartile 40% gross margins, which our 38% Q2 gross margin reinforces along with a path to 25% adjusted EBITDA margins and $1 billion in annual free cash flow, cash that we expect to enable a dramatic shift in our capital structure from debt to equity over the next couple of years and longer term, fund robust inorganic growth, not to mention the many things we are doing to accelerate organic growth.

雖然令人失望的是我們看到AMC 下半年成長放緩，但我認為重要的是要在更廣泛的背景下考慮我們的結果，即我們正在採取Regal Rexnord，這是一條通往前四分之一毛利率40% 的明確道路，我們的第二季毛利率將達到38%，調整後EBITDA 利潤率將達到25%，年度自由現金流將達到10 億美元，我們預計這些現金將在未來幾年或更長時間內實現我們的資本結構從債務到股權的巨大轉變從長遠來看，基金強勁的無機成長，更不用說我們正在做的許多事情來加速有機成長。

Moving to Slide 13. A reminder that telling that growth story will be the primary focus of our upcoming Investor Day on September 17 in New York City, and we look forward to seeing many of you there.

轉到投影片 13。提醒您，講述成長故事將是我們即將於 9 月 17 日在紐約市舉行的投資者日的主要焦點，我們期待在那裡見到你們。

And with that operator, we are ready to take questions.

我們準備好與該接線員一起回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Halloran, Baird.

（操作員說明）Mike Halloran，Baird。

So I think the first question here should -- is around order dynamics and expectations in the back half of the year. And if I hear the order commentary, across the segments, it feels at least in-line with your thought process, exiting the first quarter report, if not better.

所以我認為這裡的第一個問題應該是圍繞著今年下半年的訂單動態和預期。如果我聽到各個細分市場的訂單評論，感覺至少符合你的思考過程，退出第一季報告，如果不是更好的話。

When you look at the back half of the year from a cadencing perspective, it seems more messaging around deliveries and outlay timing as opposed to a change in the underlying demand thought process. So maybe you could confirm that one way or another and then also talk to the underlying demand process and where you are seeing the bigger puts and takes, if at all, versus what you were seeing, say, a quarter ago?

當你從節奏的角度來看今年下半年時，似乎更多的是關於交付和支出時間的信息，而不是潛在需求思維過程的變化。因此，也許您可以以某種方式確認這一點，然後也與潛在的需求流程進行交流，以及您在哪裡看到更大的看跌期權和看跌期權（如果有的話）與您所看到的（例如，一個季度前）相比？

Yes. So Mike, good morning and thanks for the question. I think you've summarized it quite well, actually. The orders really met our expectation in Q2. We feel really good about the fact that AMC has turned to positive order growth at about 12%. That IPS feels really solid at relatively flat, but that's after eight quarters of decline. And then PES is starting to gain some momentum, especially seeing now July orders of PES at roughly 3% and then again, for AMC, roughly 10% and 3.5% for IPS. So roughly 5% for Regal. So yes July feels good as well.

是的。麥克，早安，謝謝你的提問。其實我覺得你總結得很好。第二季的訂單確實達到了我們的預期。我們對 AMC 訂單實現約 12% 的正成長感到非常高興。IPS 感覺確實很穩定，但相對持平，但那是在連續八個季度下降之後。然後 PES 開始獲得一些動力，尤其是現在 7 月的 PES 訂單約為 3%，AMC 約為 10%，IPS 約為 3.5%。所以對於Regal來說大約是5%。所以是的，七月感覺也不錯。

But to your question around timing, it really is simply timing, it's not underlying market demand. We are just seeing the orders being placed for -- in our backlog in the latter half -- latter quarter and then into the first half of next year. When we look at it from a market perspective, it's pretty much playing out as we expected in that resi HVAC is starting to see a rebound. We are also seeing some stabilization of factory automation.

但對於你關於時機的問題，這其實只是時機，而不是潛在的市場需求。我們剛剛看到下半年積壓的訂單——下個季度，然後是明年上半年。當我們從市場角度來看時，它幾乎正如我們預期的那樣，住宅暖通空調開始反彈。我們也看到工廠自動化的一些穩定性。

Actually, our factory automation business, our orders in Q2 were up 9% year-over-year. And so giving us some confidence in that recovery. And we are seeing some early green shoots, early green shoots in alternative energy, solar, in food and beverage. And so giving us confidence that the second half will show positive growth and that we will move into '25 with growth as well.

實際上，我們的工廠自動化業務，第二季的訂單年增了 9%。這讓我們對復甦充滿信心。我們看到了一些早期的萌芽，替代能源、太陽能、食品和飲料領域的早期萌芽。這讓我們相信下半年將呈現積極成長，並且我們也將進入 25 年並實現成長。

Helpful. And then a subset question to that. When you look at the IPS segment, the down mid-single-digit thought process for the year, as you I think as Rob alluded to in some of the prepared remarks, some of the data points that were coming out from some of the subsegments were a little more challenging. You seem to be outperforming. So maybe talk to the levels of our performance and also as you think about the growth plus and minuses, within certainly some of the more machinery-oriented components of that IPS segment. Maybe just talk to the trend trajectory and how you are playing against that trend?

有幫助。然後是一個子集問題。當你看看 IPS 細分市場時，今年下降了中個位數的思維過程，正如 Rob 在一些準備好的評論中提到的那樣，一些數據點來自一些子細分市場更具挑戰性。看來你的表現很出色。因此，也許可以談談我們的績效水平，以及當您考慮成長的優點和缺點時，當然是在 IPS 細分市場的一些更面向機械的組件中。也許只是談談趨勢軌跡以及你如何應對這一趨勢？

Yes. So great question, Mike and thanks for the question because we actually think our IPS segment is outperforming market. The business is certainly being impacted by some weak market -- weak end markets, ag and construction but strength in marine, power gen and metals and mining.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，麥克，謝謝你提出這個問題，因為我們實際上認為我們的 IPS 細分市場的表現優於市場。該業務肯定受到一些疲軟市場的影響——終端市場、農業和建築業疲軟，但船舶、發電、金屬和採礦業表現強勁。

We also feel really good, though about our cross-sell synergies and our Powertrain growth initiatives which is allowing us to outperform the market. Through July of this year, we basically lapped our 2023 cross-selling that we achieved on a full year basis. Our bundle of potential cross-selling opportunities is up roughly 190% year-over-year, and we feel really good about that progress.

我們的交叉銷售協同效應和動力總成成長計畫也讓我們感覺非常好，這使我們能夠跑贏大盤。截至今年 7 月，我們基本上完成了 2023 年全年交叉銷售的目標。我們的潛在交叉銷售機會年增約 190%，我們對此進展感到非常滿意。

And when we run the math only about 10% of our customers are buying two or more of our products and just think if they were able to buy more of our product. And certainly, if they are buying one in the industrial powertrain, they're likely buying all.

當我們計算時，只有大約 10% 的客戶購買了兩種或更多我們的產品，並且只是考慮他們是否能夠購買更多我們的產品。當然，如果他們購買工業動力系統中的一款，他們很可能會購買全部。

And so we feel good about the cross-sell is allowing us to outperform. Rob said in his prepared remarks roughly a couple of percent. And we believe that's what's strengthening our position. We will provide quite a bit more detail on this at the Investor Day, but that's a major driver of the success we are seeing in IPS.

因此，我們對交叉銷售讓我們表現出色感到滿意。羅佈在他準備好的講話中說大約百分之幾。我們相信這就是加強我們地位的原因。我們將在投資者日提供更多詳細信息，但這是我們在 IPS 中看到的成功的主要推動力。

Great. Thanks. Appreciate it.

偉大的。謝謝。欣賞它。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc 資本市場。

So I just want to focus on PES. I mean I think what we're hearing from the resi HVAC OEMs is there is volume growth again, destocking is done. And then they're taking last call for 410A, and we saw some pretty sporty rates, I think, 30% from 1, 100% from another and probably some noise in there. But it just still seems like your business is lagging. And I'm trying to understand that. And then just maybe speak in general to any share or content shift that you've seen around this refrigerant change.

所以我只想專注於PES。我的意思是，我認為我們從 Resi HVAC OEM 那裡聽到的是銷售再次增長，庫存已經減少。然後他們接到了 410A 的最後電話，我認為我們看到了一些相當運動的價格，1 的價格為 30%，另一個的價格為 100%，可能還有一些噪音。但你的業務似乎仍然落後。我正在努力理解這一點。然後大概談談您所看到的圍繞冷媒變化的任何份額或內容轉變。

Yes. Good morning Jeff. So, a couple of points that I'd comment on. First of all, we actually are very pleased with our position in PES and how they performed in Q2 and slightly above our expectations. But I want to remind you that PES is a business that's only about 25% resi HVAC. And we saw orders in the quarter up low-single digit, and we're forecasting sales in third quarter up low-single digits.

是的。早安，傑夫。因此，我想評論幾點。首先，我們實際上對我們在 PES 中的地位以及他們在第二季度的表現感到非常滿意，略高於我們的預期。但我想提醒您，PES 是一項只有 25% 左右的 Resi HVAC 業務。我們看到本季的訂單成長了低個位數，我們預測第三季的銷售額將成長低個位數。

Now your comments around some of the OEMs calling out much larger orders, it really is going to be dependent upon the transition or at least that's our expectation. The A2L refrigerant transition. And we are seeing some OEMs deciding to build inventory of old 410A systems ahead of the transition, while others are already opting not to. And so we are going to monitor this closely, but for now, our forecast did not factor any significant prebuild of old systems.

現在，您對一些原始設備製造商的評論呼籲更大的訂單，這確實將取決於過渡，或者至少這是我們的預期。A2L 冷媒過渡。我們看到一些 OEM 決定在過渡之前建立舊 410A 系統的庫存，而其他 OEM 則已經選擇不這樣做。因此，我們將密切監視這種情況，但就目前而言，我們的預測並未考慮舊系統的任何重要預先建置。

Now with regards to the new systems and our position on those new systems. We're a leader in the variable speed motor market in climate, in residential HVAC. And our position is pretty strong across the board there. So no change from that perspective. Now as you know, over the last five years, we have been moving away from lower end, lower technology, lower margin motor business, but this just aligns with the strategy we've been taking of providing value-added margin positive business for Regal Rexnord.

現在關於新系統以及我們對這些新系統的立場。我們是氣候、住宅暖通空調領域變速馬達市場的領導者。我們在那裡的地位非常穩固。所以從這個角度來看沒有改變。現在如你所知，在過去的五年裡，我們一直在遠離低端、低技術、低利潤率的汽車業務，但這恰好符合我們一直採取的為富豪提供增值利潤率正業務的戰略。克斯諾德。

Okay. So it sounds like the lingering weakness may be more in that general commercial and rest of world than resi-HVAC. Shifting gears, though to AMC. I am trying to bridge first half to second half margins to get to your 2024, because it seems like sales are second half to first half may be flat to slightly down and yet to hit your margin target, you got to be significantly higher on margins. And it seems like, I guess discrete is maybe margin mix rich which is where the lingering weaknesses.

好的。因此，聽起來揮之不去的弱點可能更多地出現在一般商業和世界其他地區，而不是 Resi-HVAC。換檔，不過是AMC。我正在努力彌合上半年和下半年的利潤率，以達到2024 年的目標，因為下半年到上半年的銷售額可能持平甚至略有下降，但要達到您的利潤率目標，您的利潤率必須大幅提高。看來，我猜離散可能是利潤組合豐富，這就是揮之不去的弱點。

Yes. So Jeff, you are pretty much hitting right on the head. The shift in mix to factory automation and continued ramp-up in especially those very margin-rich businesses within AMC like the medical business is really playing into that uptick in margins as you move into the back half, which is contributing to the higher rate as we finish the year.

是的。傑夫，你說得很對。向工廠自動化的轉變以及 AMC 內那些利潤非常豐厚的業務（例如醫療業務）的持續增長，確實在進入後半部分時推動了利潤率的上升，這導致了更高的利率我們結束了這一年。

Okay. So discrete automation still gets better in the second half. It's just a slower ramp than you previously thought?

好的。所以下半年離散自動化還是會變得更好。只是比你之前想像的慢一點？

Absolutely, it gets better in the second half.

當然，下半場情況會更好。

I'll just remind a comment I made a second here Jeff, that orders were actually up in discrete automation in Q2 about 9%. So we are expecting a stronger second half in factory automation for sure.

我只想提醒我在這裡發表的第二句話，傑夫，第二季離散自動化訂單實際上增加了約 9%。因此，我們預計下半年工廠自動化將會更加強勁。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. Maybe my first question, and thanks for the various guidance points. If we look at the third versus fourth quarter. Just trying to understand degree of ramp there. I think, is it fair to say that the third quarter earnings or EPS based on what you said is looking at $2.50 to $2.60 or so and then you have that steeper ramp into Q4 based on things like the AMC margin mix tailwind from factory automation. Is that roughly the right seasonality? Or maybe just clarify that? And if there's anything moving around below the line between Q3 and Q4?

嗨，早安。也許是我的第一個問題，感謝您的各種指導要點。如果我們看一下第三季和第四季。只是想了解那裡的斜坡程度。我認為，公平地說，根據你所說的，第三季度收益或每股收益預計為2.50 美元至2.60 美元左右，然後，基於工廠自動化帶來的AMC 利潤率組合等因素，進入第四季度時，你會看到更陡峭的成長。這大概是正確的季節性嗎？或者也許只是澄清一下？Q3 和 Q4 之間的線以下是否有任何變動？

Yes. There really isn't a lot moving below the line between Q3 and Q4 aside from interest expense, which will obviously get a little bit better as you go into the back half of the year or the final quarter of the year in particular. The margin should improve as a result of mix as you go from third to fourth. And if you go and you do the math off of the third quarter that we put out along with the full year guide, you'll see there is maybe 100 basis points of margin improvement as you move from third to fourth.

是的。除了利息支出之外，第三季度和第四季度之間確實沒有太多變化，隨著進入今年下半年或特別是今年最後一個季度，利息支出顯然會有所改善。當你從第三名上升到第四名時，利潤率應該會因為混合而提高。如果你對我們與全年指南一起發布的第三季度進行數學計算，你會發現當你從第三季度上升到第四季度時，利潤率可能會提高 100 個基點。

So that is also a contributor there off of higher sales as well. So that's how you get there that supports the margins that we put in there and the ramp-up in earnings. But aside from interest expense, there is no other below the line improvement that we see from third to fourth.

因此，這也是銷售額增加的因素。因此，這就是支持我們投入的利潤和獲利成長的方式。但除了利息支出外，我們從第三名到第四名沒有看到其他線下的改善。

I see. And so that $2.50, $2.60 number doesn't sound outlandish in Q3?

我懂了。那麼 2.50 美元、2.60 美元的數字在第三季聽起來並不奇怪嗎？

No. I mean if you go back and work the math, it is about $2.50 off of what we put out. So you are right on line.

不。我的意思是，如果你回去計算一下，你會發現它比我們的投入低了約 2.50 美元。所以你是對的。

That makes sense. And then just a very quick follow-up. Excited to hear more at the Investor Day in seven weeks or so. But I suppose as we are thinking about the way the the macro is ending up. And at the same time, the progress on synergies and maybe some green shoots on the top-line. Just trying to circle it together, Louis, if you think about the EBITDA margin aspirations medium-term. I think you've talked about that 25% or mid-20s EBITDA margin exit rate from next year. Just wondered is that a a moving feet because the top-line is proving very choppy. Any thoughts around that, please?

這是有道理的。然後就是一個非常快速的跟進。很高興在七週左右的投資者日聽到更多消息。但我想當我們正在思考宏觀的結局時。同時，協同效應方面取得了進展，也許還有一些營收的新芽。路易斯，如果你考慮中期 EBITDA 利潤率願望，我只是想把它放在一起。我想你已經談到了明年 25% 或 20 多歲的 EBITDA 利潤退出率。只是想知道是否會移動腳，因為事實證明頂線非常不穩定。請問對此有什麼想法嗎？

Julian, it's a little early for us to comment any further than what we said. We feel really good about our path to 40% gross margins. I think we have proven ourselves as being margins [outlet], and so I feel good about that 25% and then continuing to invest in the business.

朱利安，我們現在發表比我們所說的更進一步的評論還為時過早。我們對毛利率達到 40% 的目標感到非常滿意。我認為我們已經證明了自己是利潤率 [出口]，所以我對 25% 感到滿意，然後繼續投資這項業務。

To get to the 40% gross margins, we ended Q2 at 38.1%. If you just take the synergies alone over the next 1.5 years, we get to 40% margins if not a little bit better. And I'll tell you -- we'll continue to drive 80-20 and lean until then. So even if there's a little weakness on the top-line, so the deleverage and [ESNA] costs are a little bit higher as a percent. We still feel pretty good about driving to that 25%. So we're not ready to say much more than that, but we'll certainly elaborate at Investor Day.

為了達到 40% 的毛利率，我們第二季末的毛利率為 38.1%。如果只考慮未來 1.5 年的綜效，我們的利潤率即使不是更好一點，也能達到 40%。我會告訴你——我們將繼續以 80-20 的速度前進，並保持精益，直到那時。因此，即使營收略有疲軟，去槓桿化和 [ESNA] 成本的百分比也會稍高一些。我們仍然對達到 25% 的目標感到非常滿意。因此，我們不准備透露更多內容，但我們肯定會在投資者日詳細說明。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks for the question. Good morning. So just wanted to -- another boring question on PES. So this step up from Q2 to Q3, so it's about $30 million, $35 million of sales. Obviously, a bit more aggressive than normal seasonality, but we're not in a normal environment. So I'm just wondering the visibility on that and maybe just talk about the dollar orders instead of year-to-year, the dollar orders in the second quarter and maybe in July that supports that lift up in sales?

謝謝你的提問。早安.所以只是想——另一個關於實況足球的無聊問題。從第二季到第三季度，銷售額約為 3,000 萬美元、3,500 萬美元。顯然，比正常的季節性更具侵略性，但我們並不處於正常的環境。所以我只是想知道這方面的可見性，也許只是談論美元訂單而不是同比，第二季甚至 7 月的美元訂單支持銷售額的成長？

Yes. So we are happy to follow up after the call with you specifically, on giving you exact dollar orders, Nigel I don't have it in front of me. But what I can tell you is that, again second quarter resi orders were up low-single digits, and that's going to drive our third quarter revenue to be up, up low-single digits. And as you know the backlog in this business is only about two months. And so we are very short cycle in PES. And exiting Q2 with 1.02 book-bill also gives us that confidence for a bit of a step up.

是的。因此，我們很高興在與您通話後具體跟進，向您提供準確的美元訂單，奈傑爾，我面前沒有。但我可以告訴你的是，第二季的樹脂訂單再次出現低個位數成長，這將推動我們第三季的營收成長，低個位數成長。如您所知，這項業務的積壓時間只有兩個月左右。所以我們的PES週期非常短。第二季的預訂量為 1.02，這也給了我們前進的信心。

Now from a third quarter perspective, realize that what we are forecasting overall for PES is sales slightly down. And that's driven by the rest of the business still having some pressure in particular general commercial that I’d align heavily to ISM and that we are seeing revenue down mid-single digits. So overall slightly down in third quarter, but we have confidence with the book bill of 1.02 and with the starting of the rebound in residential HVAC that we have a path to third quarter and fourth quarter for that matter.

現在從第三季的角度來看，我們對 PES 的整體預測是銷售額略有下降。這是由於其他業務仍然面臨一些壓力，特別是一般商業業務，我會大力支持 ISM，我們看到收入下降了中個位數。因此，第三季度總體略有下降，但我們對 1.02 的圖書賬單充滿信心，並且隨著住宅 HVAC 的反彈，我們有一個通往第三季度和第四季度的道路。

Okay. That's great. Thanks Louis. And then Rob, you were pretty definitive about the improvement in automation. I think you said absolutely improved. So I'm just wondering, are you talking about the the year-over-year delta against easier comps. Are we talking here about the actual dollar sales relative to the first half of the year because the PMI just printed, and it's a very vigorous. I'm just wondering if we've got enough hedge for the macro in the back half of the year?

好的。那太棒了。謝謝路易斯。然後，羅布，您對自動化的改進非常明確。我認為你說的是絕對改善。所以我只是想知道，你是在談論相對於更簡單的比較的逐年增量嗎？我們在這裡談論的是相對於上半年的實際美元銷售額，因為 PMI 剛剛公佈，而且非常活躍。我只是想知道下半年我們對宏觀經濟是否有足夠的對沖？

Yes. We feel good about where we've guided relative to what we are seeing. I feel good about the fact that we saw the order rates improving. As Louis mentioned, about 9% in that particular part of the business. And the fact that we've -- so to your question specifically, both sequentially and year-over-year, we're feeling very good about the back half and the way -- and where we're guiding AMC.

是的。相對於我們所看到的情況，我們對我們所引導的方向感覺良好。我對訂單率的提高感到高興。正如 Louis 所提到的，大約 9% 的人從事該業務的特定部分。事實上，對於你提出的具體問題，無論是連續還是逐年，我們對後半程和方式以及我們對 AMC 的指導都感覺非常好。

Book bill in our factory -- Nigel, I'm sorry, book bill in our factory automation business was over 1.1. It was like 1.13. So we feel we are progressing in the right sequential basis, as Rob said.

我們工廠的書單帳單 -- Nigel，對不起，我們工廠自動化業務的書單帳單超過了 1.1。好像是1.13。因此，正如羅布所說，我們覺得我們正在按正確的順序取得進展。

And then just on the book-to-bill, the July orders, obviously, very encouraging year-over-year, but was book-to-bill above 1 in July?

然後就訂單出貨比而言，7 月的訂單顯然同比非常令人鼓舞，但是 7 月的訂單出貨比是否高於 1？

Yes. Book-to-bill was slightly over 1. And as I said there is about 10% on orders.

是的。訂單出貨比略高於 1。正如我所說，訂單中大約有 10%。

Right. Thanks guys.

正確的。謝謝你們。

(inaudible), Goldman Sachs.

（聽不清楚），高盛。

Hey, guys. This is Joe. So maybe just following up on Nigel's question there. So we're all just trying to double-click into the orders in July in AMC. I think you had -- I think you referenced that you expected those to convert to revenues or portion at least in the fourth quarter. Like how much of it is going to convert this year versus what your expectation is for something maybe longer cycle into 2025.

嘿，夥計們。這是喬。所以也許只是跟進奈傑爾的問題。因此，我們只是嘗試雙擊 AMC 中 7 月的訂單。我認為您提到了您預計這些至少在第四季度將轉化為收入或部分。例如今年將有多少轉化，以及您對 2025 年可能更長的周期的預期。

Joe, we don't have it cut that way. Our backlog is filling nicely for what we've guided to our -- we are not expecting any significant lift in order to be able to achieve the fourth quarter guide. So we are happy to provide more detail going forward. But I think, maybe the way to think about is about one-third of those orders will lay into the second half and about two-thirds into '25. But we are happy to give you more detail in the future.

喬，我們不這麼剪。我們的積壓工作很好地滿足了我們的指導方針——我們預計不會有任何重大提升，以便能夠實現第四季度的指導目標。因此，我們很樂意提供更多詳細資訊。但我認為，也許應該考慮的是，這些訂單中的三分之一將在下半年交付，約三分之二將在 25 年交付。但我們很樂意在未來為您提供更多詳細資訊。

Okay. Yes. No, that's helpful, Louis. I guess -- so then I guess the baseline then is we hit a bottom on revenue for AMC 420 in the third quarter, will start to improve from there. So I want to make sure that I have that right. And then secondly, I think Jeff touched on the margins earlier. It seems like a pretty material uptick in margins sequentially, not just in 3Q, but also in 4Q. I'm baking in close to 300 basis points, just is there a way to parse that out in the 4Q margin? And what really drives that improvement for 4Q?

好的。是的。不，這很有幫助，路易斯。我想 - 所以我想基線是我們在第三季 AMC 420 的收入觸底，將從那裡開始改善。所以我想確保我有這個權利。其次，我認為傑夫早些時候觸及了邊緣。利潤率似乎連續大幅上升，不僅在第三季度，而且在第四季度也是如此。我正在烘烤近 300 個基點，有沒有辦法在第四季度的利潤率中解析出來？是什麼真正推動了第四季的改善？

Let me just take very quickly revenue. So the revenue guide is actually relatively flat sequentially into Q3. And then, yes, the step up into Q4, we feel confidence with the roughly 10% or 12% of orders up in Q2, the 10% of orders up in July, the more than 1.1 book bill coming out of July that that is definitely the path that this business is on. With regards to margins --

讓我快速看一下收入。因此，第三季的營收指引實際上相對持平。然後，是的，進入第四季度，我們對第二季度訂單增長約 10% 或 12%、7 月份訂單增長 10%、7 月份超過 1.1 的圖書賬單充滿信心。道路。關於邊距--

Yes, and I'll take that side of it. So the margin step-up is absolutely related to mix within this business and the greater mix going into that like discrete factory automation, which we've been talking about as well as a little bit of synergy improvement as we move through the back half of the year.

是的，我會站在那邊。因此，利潤率的提高絕對與該業務的組合以及離散工廠自動化等更大的組合有關，我們一直在談論這一點，以及當我們進入下半年時的一點協同效應改進。

Remember, we said we were going to do $90 million, and we are on track to do that. We did about $25 million in the second quarter and expect to do over $20 million in the third and the remainder in the fourth. And roughly 20% of those synergies also goes into the AMC side of the business. So that's also helping to improve margins as we go through the year.

請記住，我們說過我們將投入 9000 萬美元，而且我們正在按計劃實現這一目標。我們第二季的營收約為 2,500 萬美元，預計第三季的營收將超過 2,000 萬美元，其餘的將在第四季營收。其中約 20% 的綜效也反映在 AMC 業務方面。因此，這也有助於提高我們今年的利潤率。

Okay, thanks, guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

克里斯托弗·格林，奧本海默。

So looking at IPS holding up well, performing well, but very much two stories, various different markets with like ag and construction down significantly. Wondering if you could go into a little bit in terms of the magnitudes on a relative basis of some of the plus minuses because at some point, things like ag and construction are going to turn and based on the comparisons helps us think about it, what you're seeing there and mix of destock that's into those magnitudes.

因此，IPS 保持良好，表現良好，但有兩個故事，各種不同的市場，例如農業和建築業顯著下降。想知道您是否可以在一些正負值的相對基礎上稍微討論一下幅度，因為在某些時候，像農業和建築業這樣的事情將會發生轉變，並且基於比較可以幫助我們思考，什麼是你會看到，庫存減少的幅度達到了這些程度。

Yes. So Chris, I don't have it cut into that level of detail, but roughly from our operating reviews, I can tell you that we're seeing ag and construction down high-single digit. I think there is a bit of destock there. I don't think it's a ton of destock. I think there is demand constraints in those markets.

是的。所以，克里斯，我沒有把它切到那麼詳細，但從我們的營運回顧來看，我可以告訴你，我們看到農業和建築業下降了高個位數。我認為那裡有一些去庫存。我不認為這是大量去庫存。我認為這些市場有需求限制。

We are seeing marine power gen up high-single digits. And that's really a big part of that balance. And then with ISM being below 50, and PMIs in Europe and Asia below 50, the fact that IPS we are calling for relatively flattish, we feel good that our cross-sell activity is helping to bolster the overall business to outperform market. But hopefully, that gives you a little sense of how we are thinking about it by market.

我們看到船舶發電量呈現高個位數成長。這確實是這種平衡的重要組成部分。然後，由於 ISM 低於 50，歐洲和亞洲的 PMI 低於 50，我們所要求的 IPS 相對持平，我們感覺良好，因為我們的交叉銷售活動正在幫助推動整體業務跑贏市場。但希望這能讓您了解我們如何按市場思考它。

Yes. On the MRO and distribution side, what are you seeing there? Is sell through pretty aligned, do you think?

是的。在 MRO 和分銷方面，您看到了什麼？您認為銷售非常一致嗎？

Yes. No, we do not have an inventory issue on distribution. This is part of the reason this business is a good forecastable business for us. We have -- half of the business is aftermarket and MRO goes through distribution. Half of that, we see the sales in, sales out and inventory levels of our distributor. And nothing is out of whack right now. And so it's pretty much aligning with the demand.

是的。不，我們在分銷方面沒有庫存問題。這就是該業務對我們來說是一項很好的可預測業務的部分原因。我們有一半的業務是售後市場，而 MRO 則透過分銷。其中一半是我們經銷商的進貨、出貨和庫存水準。現在一切都還不錯。所以它非常符合需求。

Great. And then just tuning question on the discrete within AMC, where we've had a lot of discussion. Are you -- it seems like you are starting to maybe anticipating flattish revenue year-over-year in the fourth quarter for discrete and probably down very hefty double digits on a reported revenue basis in the second quarter. So I just want to make sure if that understanding of the bridge is correct.

偉大的。然後只是調整 AMC 內分立元件的問題，我們在那裡進行了很多討論。你是嗎——你似乎開始預計離散產品第四季度的收入將同比持平，並且第二季度報告的收入可能會大幅下降兩位數。所以我只是想確定一下對這座橋的理解是否正確。

We don't have it for just discrete. Discrete automation is roughly 35% of that segment. The overall segment for the full year will be down low-single digits is what we are guiding to. And so we are expecting a pickup in the second half and the orders are supporting it from a year-over-year perspective. There's not much more I have prepared on factory automation than that.

我們不只是離散的。離散自動化約佔該細分市場的 35%。我們的指導方針是，全年整體細分市場將下降低個位數。因此，我們預計下半年會有所回升，並且從同比的角度來看，訂單將為其提供支援。我在工廠自動化方面準備的不多了。

Maybe the only other thing I would add is, I think we're thinking around flat to low-single digits in the back half for that particular business is about what we've been monitoring and seeing.

也許我要補充的唯一一件事是，我認為我們正在考慮後半部分的特定業務的持平到低個位數的數字是我們一直在監控和看到的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And this does conclude the question-and-answer session. I would like to return the conference back to Louis Pinkham for any closing comments.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想將會議返回給路易斯·平卡姆（Louis Pinkham）以徵求結束意見。

Great. Thank you, operator. And thanks to our investors and analysts for joining us today. The performance we delivered over the last five years tells a tremendous story of portfolio transformation, margin expansion, free cash flow acceleration and laying the groundwork for faster organic growth.

偉大的。謝謝你，接線生。感謝我們的投資者和分析師今天加入我們。我們在過去五年中所取得的業績講述了投資組合轉型、利潤擴張、自由現金流加速以及為更快的有機成長奠定基礎的巨大故事。

The next phase of our journey will be more about leveraging the benefits of our reshaped portfolio to accelerate profitable growth, both organic and in time inorganic. We see so many levers under our control to create significant shareholder value, and we look forward to presenting that story at our Investor Day scheduled for September 17 in New York City. We hope you will join us.

我們旅程的下一階段將更多地利用我們重塑的投資組合的優勢來加速有機和無機的盈利增長。我們看到我們可以控制如此多的槓桿來創造顯著的股東價值，我們期待在定於 9 月 17 日在紐約市舉行的投資者日上展示這個故事。我們希望您能加入我們。

Thank you again for joining us today and thank you for your interest in Regal Rexnord.

再次感謝您今天加入我們，並感謝您對 Regal Rexnord 的興趣。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。