山脈資源 (RRC) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello. Welcome to the Range Resources first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    您好。歡迎參加 Range Resources 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • Statements made during this conference call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

    本次電話會議中所作、非屬歷史事實之陳述均為前瞻性陳述。此類陳述受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異。(接線員指示)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Laith Sando, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations at Range Resources. Sir, please go ahead.

    現在,我想把電話交給 Range Resources 投資人關係資深副總裁 Laith Sando 先生。先生,請開始。

  • Laith Sando - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Laith Sando - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Range's first quarter 2026 earnings call. The speakers on today's call are Dennis Degner, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Scucchi, Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,接線員。各位早安,感謝各位參加 Range 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的與會講者為執行長 Dennis Degner,以及財務長 Mark Scucchi。

  • Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the press release and updated investor presentation that we posted on our website. We may reference certain slides on the call this morning. You will also find our 10-Q on Range's website under the Investors tab or you can access it using the SEC's at your system.

    希望各位已經有機會查閱我們在官網發布的新聞稿與更新後的投資人簡報。今天上午的電話會議中,我們可能會引用其中部分投影片。您也可以在 Range 官網的 Investors(投資人)分頁下找到我們的 10-Q,或透過 SEC 的系統存取。

  • Please note, we'll be referencing certain non-GAAP measures on today's call. Our press release provides reconciliations of these to the most comparable GAAP figures. We've also posted supplemental tables on our website that include hedging details by month, realized pricing by product along with calculations of EBITDAX, cash margins and other non-GAAP measures.

    請注意,我們在今天的電話會議中將引用若干非 GAAP 衡量指標。我們的新聞稿提供了這些指標與最可比 GAAP 數字之間的調節表。我們也在官網發布了補充表格,包含按月的避險明細、按產品的已實現價格,以及 EBITDAX、現金利潤率與其他非 GAAP 指標的計算。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Dennis.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Dennis。

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Laith, and thanks to all of you for joining the call today. Range is off to a great start in 2026. We continued steady operational progress in the first quarter towards our multiyear plan that was launched over a year ago. The first quarter also saw strong realized pricing for Range as winter weather drove natural gas prices higher, while international NGL prices spiked in March following supply disruptions in the Middle East. Range's strategic marketing portfolio paired with safe, steady operations, allowed Range to capture this opportunity, leading to free cash flow for the quarter of approximately $400 million. This free cash flow supported an increased dividend, additional share repurchases, and the strongest balance sheet and company history.

    謝謝你,Laith,也感謝各位今天加入電話會議。Range 在 2026 年有一個非常好的開局。第一季我們持續穩健推進營運進展,朝向一年多前啟動的多年期計畫邁進。第一季 Range 的已實現價格也相當強勁:冬季天候推升天然氣價格,同時中東供應中斷使國際 NGL 價格在 3 月飆升。Range 的策略性行銷組合搭配安全、穩定的營運,使我們得以把握此一機會,帶動本季自由現金流約 4 億美元。這筆自由現金流支持了股利上調、額外的庫藏股回購,以及公司史上最強健的資產負債表。

  • Looking at the operational results for the first quarter, Production came in at 2.2 Bcf equivalent per day. Range expects production to increase slightly in the second quarter before jumping meaningfully higher at the midpoint of the year as gas processing and related infrastructure is put into service. This will push production to 2.5 Bcf equivalent per day by year-end, all-in line with our previous guidance. Capital for the quarter came in at $139 million as Range was running one rig and one completions crew.

    就第一季的營運成果而言,產量為每日 22 億立方英尺當量(Bcf equivalent)。Range 預期第二季產量將小幅增加,並在年中隨著天然氣處理與相關基礎設施投入服務而顯著跳升。這將推動年末產量達到每日 25 億立方英尺當量,整體符合我們先前的指引。本季資本支出為 1.39 億美元,因 Range 當季運行一座鑽機與一組完井作業團隊。

  • Completion spending will step up in the second quarter as we add a spot completion crew to begin working through the drilled uncompleted inventory we've built up over the past 24 months. As a result, second and third quarter are expected to be the high point for capital with this operational cadence placing us squarely within our previous stated capital guidance.

    第二季我們將新增一組臨時(spot)完井團隊,開始消化過去 24 個月累積的已鑽未完井(DUC)庫存,因此完井支出將在第二季提高。因此,第二與第三季預期將是資本支出的高峰;以此營運節奏,我們將穩穩落在先前所述的資本支出指引範圍內。

  • During the first quarter, our single horizontal rig drilled approximately 143,000 lateral feet. Annualized, this is well over 0.5 million lateral feet by a single drilling rig. The team also had eight days where they drilled over a mile in the horizontal, with two of those 24-hour periods exceeding 9,400 feet. This level of operational efficiency advancement continues to reflect the team's hard work and drive to deliver on peer-leading drilling and completion cost per foot.

    第一季期間,我們單一水平鑽機鑽進約 143,000 英尺的水平段(lateral)。按年化計算,單一鑽機的水平段鑽進量遠超過 50 萬英尺。團隊也有 8 天在水平段鑽進超過 1 英里,其中有兩個 24 小時期間超過 9,400 英尺。這樣的營運效率提升,持續反映團隊的努力與動能,致力於在同業中提供領先的每英尺鑽完井成本。

  • For completions, Range's electric fracturing fleet set a program record by completing a total of 874 stages during the quarter. Annualized, this is approaching over 700,000 lateral feet being completed in a year by a single crew. On multiple days, the team reached a record level of 17 stages per day. And despite challenging weather conditions, the team achieved a new record during winter operations averaging over 10 stages per day.

    在完井方面,Range 的電動壓裂車隊於本季完成總計 874 個壓裂段(stages),創下計畫紀錄。按年化計算,單一團隊一年完成的水平段長度接近超過 700,000 英尺。在多個日子裡,團隊達到每日 17 個壓裂段的紀錄水準。即使面對具挑戰性的天候條件,團隊在冬季作業期間仍創下新紀錄,平均每日完成超過 10 個壓裂段。

  • Achieving this level of efficiency takes critical coordination between completions and water operations as we delivered up to 120,000 barrels of water per day for those wells. This is quite an accomplishment for our team, and it is a key contributor to Range's peer-leading capital efficiency. This combined level of efficiency and drilling and completions continues to support our operational plans through 2027 and beyond as we maintain a resilient DUC inventory for future optionality on capital and production.

    要達到這樣的效率,需要完井與供水作業之間的關鍵協調;我們為這些井每日供應最高達 120,000 桶的用水。這對我們的團隊而言是相當了不起的成就,也是 Range 同業領先資本效率的重要貢獻因素。這種鑽井與完井的綜合效率水準,持續支撐我們至 2027 年及以後的營運計畫;同時我們維持具韌性的 DUC 庫存,以便未來在資本與產量上保有選擇權。

  • Range's winter operations program also had a very successful first quarter and kept production volumes flowing through the harsh winter conditions ushered in by winter storm Fern. Production facility design enhancements, strategic staging of backup power, and working in concert with our gathering partners are just a few aspects of the program that the team continue to focus on. All of this resulted in the team maintaining strong field run time and supported record free cash flow for the month of February. Hats off to the team for their dedication to safely keeping our production flowing.

    Range 的冬季作業計畫在第一季也非常成功,在冬季風暴 Fern 帶來的嚴酷冬季條件下,仍維持產量順利輸送。生產設施設計強化、備援電力的策略性部署,以及與集輸(gathering)合作夥伴協同作業,都是團隊持續聚焦的計畫面向之一。這些努力使團隊維持強勁的現場運轉時間,並支撐 2 月創下月度自由現金流紀錄。向團隊致敬,感謝他們致力於在安全前提下讓我們的產量持續流動。

  • Before moving on to marketing, I'll briefly touch on service costs. We anticipate the cost of our electric hydraulic fracturing fleet to remain unchanged given the long-term contract that was signed earlier this year. Additionally, we have day rates locked in place for our horizontal activity for 2026.

    在進入行銷議題之前,我先簡要談一下服務成本。由於我們今年稍早簽署了長期合約,我們預期電動水力壓裂車隊的成本將維持不變。此外,我們 2026 年水平鑽井活動的日費率也已鎖定。

  • Steel market prices appear to be moving due to geopolitical events but Range is mostly insulated from these increases due to our prepurchase of production casing in late 2025. Fuel pricing will obviously be elevated due to diesel prices moving higher but we expect no changes to our capital plans given the efficiency gains and contractual certainty around the rest of our program. And as mentioned already, we believe Range's low capital intensity provides an additional level of stability versus our other producers.

    鋼材市場價格似乎因地緣政治事件而波動,但由於我們在 2025 年底預先採購了生產套管(production casing),Range 在很大程度上可免受這些漲價影響。燃料價格顯然會因柴油價格走高而處於較高水準,但考量效率提升以及我們計畫其餘部分的合約確定性,我們預期資本計畫不會有變動。並且如先前所提,我們相信 Range 較低的資本強度,相較其他生產商可提供額外的穩定性。

  • Shifting over to marketing. The current disruption of global energy supply has reshaped markets since the beginning of March. We believe America's ability to provide reliable, affordable supply to meet global demand has been highlighted now more than ever. The ongoing build-out of LNG and NGL export capacity positions the US to meet an increasing percentage of the world's energy needs. At the same time, the industry is continuing to supply energy for Americans during critical periods of peak demand as demonstrated this past quarter.

    接著談行銷。自 3 月初以來,全球能源供應的當前中斷已重塑市場。我們認為,美國提供可靠且可負擔供應以滿足全球需求的能力,如今比以往任何時候都更受到凸顯。LNG 與 NGL 出口產能的持續擴建,使美國得以滿足全球日益增加的能源需求占比。同時,產業也持續在關鍵尖峰需求期間為美國民眾供應能源,這在本季已獲得驗證。

  • Given the clear call from the rest of the world for more US energy, we expect exports for LNG, ethane, propane, and butane to increase further throughout 2026, above already record levels. This should result in improved US storage levels, particularly on a days of supply basis across all of these products, providing an expected tailwind to absolute pricing levels.

    鑑於世界其他地區明確呼籲增加美國能源供應,我們預期 2026 年 LNG、乙烷、丙烷與丁烷的出口將在既有的創紀錄水準之上進一步成長。這應可改善美國的庫存水準,特別是在上述各產品的供應天數(days of supply)基礎上,並為絕對價格水準帶來預期的順風。

  • For natural gas, LNG exports are now approaching 20 Bcf per day, up 20% versus last year, and further supported by the recent startup of the Golden Pass LNG terminal. For ethane, waterborne exports were estimated at 665,000 barrels per day for the first quarter up over 47% year on year, supported by new export terminal capacity that went into service during the second half of 2025.

    就天然氣而言,LNG 出口目前正接近每日 200 億立方英尺(Bcf),較去年增加 20%,並且近期 Golden Pass LNG 終端啟用也提供進一步支撐。就乙烷而言,第一季水運出口估計為每日 665,000 桶,年增超過 47%;此成長受惠於 2025 年下半年投入服務的新出口終端產能。

  • And lastly, for propane and butane, Exports are up 5% year on year and are expected to increase significantly throughout 2026 as additional US export capacity comes online. We expect these growing exports will tighten storage balances and improved fundamentals across the various products Range sells.

    最後,就丙烷與丁烷而言,出口量年增5%,且隨著美國新增出口產能陸續投產,預期在2026年將顯著增加。我們預期這些持續成長的出口將收緊庫存供需平衡,並改善Range所銷售各項產品的基本面。

  • Looking at the quarter results for marketing and starting with natural gas. Strong winter weather provided a window of improved natural gas pricing from a significant spike in demand to feed power plants and to heat homes in late January.

    接著看行銷業務的季度表現,先從天然氣開始。強勁的冬季天氣帶來了天然氣價格改善的窗口期;1月下旬因電廠用氣與住家供暖需求激增,需求出現明顯飆升。

  • Range's marketing team in coordination with operations and planning was able to sell nearly all of our natural gas during midweek in late January when Henry Hub and NYMEX settled over $7 per MMBtu supporting strong first quarter differentials. In addition, the marketing team further enhanced revenue and margins by optimizing ethane extraction timing with commodity price movements. Combined, this resulted in Range's best quarterly natural gas differential in over a decade at $0.18 premium to Henry Hub for the first quarter.

    Range的行銷團隊與營運及規劃部門協同合作,得以在1月下旬的週間幾乎售出我們所有天然氣;當時Henry Hub與NYMEX結算價均高於每MMBtu 7美元,支撐第一季強勁的價差表現。此外,行銷團隊也透過配合商品價格走勢,最佳化乙烷抽提時點,進一步提升營收與利潤。綜合而言,這使Range在第一季創下逾十年來最佳的天然氣價差表現:較Henry Hub溢價0.18美元。

  • Turning to liquids. Range's strategic access to international markets for ethane, propane, and butane generated a significant uplift in NGL pricing in the month of March as international prices decoupled from US markets. When combined with strong Northeast NGL pricing during January and February, along with the ethane optimization I just mentioned, Range realized an NGL premium for the first quarter of $4.41 per barrel above the Mont Belvieu index, the largest NGL premium in company history.

    再看液體產品。Range在乙烷、丙烷與丁烷方面具備通往國際市場的策略性管道,使3月份在國際價格與美國市場脫鉤之際,NGL定價獲得顯著提振。再加上1月與2月美國東北部NGL價格強勁,以及我剛提到的乙烷最佳化,Range第一季實現的NGL價格較Mont Belvieu指數溢價每桶4.41美元,為公司史上最高的NGL溢價。

  • As a result of this strong start to the year, we have improved our full year 2026 NGL differential guidance to a premium of $1.25 to $2.50 per barrel over Mont Belvieu. The low end reflects the potential for improved Mont Belvieu pricing due to strong US exports. All the high end reflects current strip pricing in the various domestic and international markets that our contracts are tied to. In both cases, price realizations are expected to be substantially higher than our initial guidance communicated this past February.

    受惠於今年強勁的開局,我們已將2026年全年NGL價差指引上調至較Mont Belvieu溢價每桶1.25至2.50美元。區間下緣反映在美國出口強勁帶動下,Mont Belvieu價格可能改善的情境。區間上緣則反映目前各個國內與國際市場的遠期(strip)價格,而我們的合約與這些市場價格連動。在兩種情境下,預期實現價格都將顯著高於我們今年2月初對外溝通的原始指引。

  • We are truly excited about how the company is positioned today with financial and operational flexibility that allows us to efficiently align production growth with known demand while generating free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. We believe our robust inventory and relatively low capital intensity provides Range a differentiated foundation for generating through-cycle returns for our investors.

    我們對公司目前的定位感到非常振奮:具備財務與營運彈性,使我們能在產生自由現金流並回饋股東資本的同時,高效率地將產量成長與已知需求對齊。我們相信,充沛的庫存資源與相對較低的資本強度,為Range提供了差異化的基礎,得以為投資人創造穿越景氣循環的報酬。

  • I'll now turn it over to Mark to discuss the financials.

    接下來我把時間交給Mark,請他說明財務表現。

  • Mark Scucchi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Scucchi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Dennis. With the first quarter of 2026 successfully completed, Range continued steady progress along the multiyear disciplined growth plan we announced last year designed to capture market value enabled by the depth and quality of Range's portfolio.

    謝謝,Dennis。隨著2026年第一季順利完成,Range持續穩健推進我們去年宣布的多年期紀律成長計畫;該計畫旨在運用Range投資組合的深度與品質,掌握市場價值。

  • When we announced the three-year plan at the beginning of 2025, we described the integrated approach from wellhead to customer that underpinned modest production growth to fulfill increasing natural gas demand. That plan is unfolding as expected with the infrastructure slated to come online midyear, enabling the completion and turn in line of lateral footage generated in recent quarters.

    在2025年初我們公布三年計畫時,我們說明了從井口到客戶的整合式方法,作為支撐溫和產量成長、以滿足日益增加天然氣需求的基礎。該計畫正如預期推進,相關基礎設施預計於年中投產,將使近幾季所形成的側向井段(lateral)長度得以完工並接入投產。

  • We're using the power of Range's high-quality and long-duration inventory to underwrite targeted transportation and midstream contracts that enable Range to tie into premium markets with visible demand growth. This plan builds on Range's operational and financial strength and illustrates the positive outcome of an evaluation we continuously perform.

    我們運用Range高品質且長年期的庫存資源,作為承作特定運輸與中游合約的支撐,使Range能連結至具溢價且需求成長可見度高的市場。此計畫建立在Range的營運與財務實力之上,也展現了我們持續進行的一項評估所帶來的正面成果。

  • This evaluation is really a simple question. How do we maximize long-term free cash flow netbacks on a per share basis. As a key metric, durable free cash flow per share drives how we evaluate sales contracts, drilling activity, infrastructure, share repurchases, essentially all major capital allocation decisions. The results of the first quarter highlight not only Range's operational strength but the quality marketing strategies implemented over many years to access premium markets. During the quarter, Range generated $545 million in cash flow from operations before working capital driven by realized natural gas price of $5.18 per Mcf before hedging and $26.62 per barrel of NGLs.

    這項評估其實是一個很簡單的問題。我們如何在每股基礎上,最大化長期自由現金流淨回收(netbacks)。作為關鍵指標,具持久性的每股自由現金流,驅動我們評估銷售合約、鑽井活動、基礎設施、庫藏股回購——基本上所有主要資本配置決策。第一季的成果不僅凸顯Range的營運實力,也反映多年來為進入溢價市場而建立的高品質行銷策略。本季Range在扣除營運資金變動前,營運活動產生現金流為5.45億美元;實現天然氣價格為每Mcf 5.18美元(避險前),NGL實現價格為每桶26.62美元。

  • Participating in rising prices requires thoughtful marketing, timely execution, an experienced nimble team, and a transportation portfolio that reaches premium points. These elements of success apply to both natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Range marketing and operations teams executed superbly on our natural gas portfolio to capture strong January and February prices while delivering reliable supply to our customers. This was also true of NGLs where roughly 80% of our propane and butane are exported out of the East Coast and a significant portion is sold under medium-term contracts with floating links to European and Asian LPG indices, a linkage driven by our long-term positive view of those markets.

    要參與價格上漲,需要周延的行銷規劃、及時的執行、經驗豐富且靈活的團隊,以及能觸及溢價交付點的運輸組合。這些成功要素同樣適用於天然氣與天然氣液(NGL)。Range的行銷與營運團隊在天然氣組合上執行出色,成功掌握1月與2月的強勁價格,同時向客戶提供可靠供應。NGL亦是如此:我們約80%的丙烷與丁烷自美國東岸出口,且其中相當部分透過中期合約銷售,並以浮動方式連結至歐洲與亞洲LPG指數;此一連結反映我們對這些市場的長期正向看法。

  • With strong cash flow and a capital reinvestment rate of less than 30% in the first quarter, free cash flow was approximately $400 million. That free cash flow funded our growing dividend totaling $24 million in Q1 and modest share repurchases totaling $27 million. The end result was net debt of $834 million or half a turn of leverage, an investment-grade style balance sheet comparable to our strongest peers.

    在強勁現金流與第一季資本再投資率低於30%的情況下,自由現金流約為4億美元。該自由現金流支應我們持續成長的股利(第一季合計2,400萬美元),以及規模不大的庫藏股回購(合計2,700萬美元)。最終結果為淨負債8.34億美元,或槓桿約0.5倍,資產負債表呈現投資級風格,與我們最強的同業可比。

  • Turning to unit cost for a moment. We have a permanent focus on driving down unit costs with the objective of maintaining and enhancing margins. Over the years, we've talked about the right way risk construct embedded within our gathering, processing, and transportation expense line item. The cost of Range's infrastructure portfolio has linked to prices for natural gas via electricity and pipeline fuel costs and natural gas liquids via a percentage of proceeds processing cost.

    接著簡要談一下單位成本。我們長期聚焦於降低單位成本,目標是維持並提升利潤率。多年來,我們談到在集輸、處理與運輸(GP&T)費用項目中所內含的「正確方向風險」(right way risk)架構。Range的基礎設施組合成本,透過電力與管線燃料成本與天然氣價格連動,並透過按收益分成比例計算的處理費用與天然氣液價格連動。

  • So the costs are aligned with sales, such that as we experienced some increase in electricity or processing costs, it's because we are realizing higher prices and expanded margins. Critically, in periods of commodity price weakness, we also experienced the proper linkage where we incur lower expenses when realized prices decrease, enhancing Range's resilience through cycles.

    因此成本與銷售相互對齊:當我們看到電力或處理成本上升時,往往是因為我們實現了更高價格與更擴大的利潤率。更關鍵的是,在商品價格疲弱期間,我們也會看到正確的連動關係——當實現價格下降時,我們承擔的費用也會降低,提升Range穿越景氣循環的韌性。

  • So while the GP&T per unit increased for the quarter, it was on the back of strong pricing as Range realized its highest premium for natural gas in over a decade and the highest NGL premium in company history. Together, this translated to improved margin per unit of production of $2.77 per Mmcfe, up 38% from the same quarter last year, reflecting the strategic right way risk embedded in our contracts.

    因此,雖然本季GP&T單位成本上升,但其背景是強勁定價:Range實現了逾十年來最高的天然氣溢價,以及公司史上最高的NGL溢價。合計之下,單位產量利潤提升至每Mmcfe 2.77美元,較去年同期增加38%,反映我們合約中所嵌入的策略性「正確方向風險」。

  • Looking ahead at the balance of 2026 and beyond, we will continue to critically evaluate investment opportunities in Range's business and shareholder returns. With an unwavering focus on sustaining and further enhancing Range's core objective, durable and growing free cash flow per share. To achieve that objective, we seek to enhance our low full cycle cost structure, low reinvestment rate, and premier marketing portfolio, all with a focus on maximizing durable margins. Here's a key message we repeat today.

    展望2026年剩餘期間及其後,我們將持續嚴謹評估Range業務中的投資機會與股東回報。並以堅定不移的專注,維持並進一步強化Range的核心目標:具持久性且成長的每股自由現金流。為達成該目標,我們致力於強化低全週期成本結構、低再投資率與一流的行銷組合,並以最大化可持續利潤率為核心。以下是一個我們今天再次重申的關鍵訊息。

  • We can thoughtfully grow Range's business alongside increasing demand, allowing us to grow the value of the business and deliver additional returns to shareholders. This is a consistent long-term strategy underpinned by quality long-duration assets and a strong balance sheet.

    我們可以在需求增加的同時,審慎地擴大Range的業務規模,讓我們得以提升企業價值並為股東帶來額外回報。這是一項一致且長期的策略,由高品質、長年期資產與強健的資產負債表所支撐。

  • We see lasting tailwinds in our business as the US and global natural gas markets continue to integrate with commissioning of LNG facilities, while at the same time, domestic natural gas demand grows substantially, primarily from the need for additional electric generation and the world is again reminded of the critical importance of reliable energy supply. We believe Range's long-life inventory stands to provide enormous option value by serving an integral role as a dependable long-term energy provider, our durable free cash flow, evidenced through cycles, positions Range to consistently deliver value to shareholders.

    我們看到業務存在持久的順風因素:隨著LNG設施陸續投產,美國與全球天然氣市場持續整合;同時,國內天然氣需求也大幅成長,主要來自新增發電需求,而全球也再次意識到可靠能源供應的重要性。我們相信,Range的長壽命庫存資源可透過扮演可靠的長期能源供應者之關鍵角色,提供巨大的選擇權價值;我們在景氣循環中已被驗證的持久自由現金流,使Range得以持續為股東創造價值。

  • Dennis, back to you.

    Dennis,交給你。

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mark. Today's results continue to demonstrate Range's strong operational performance against our multiyear plan, consistent free cash flow degeneration and prudent allocation of that cash flow, balancing returns of capital, balance sheet strength, and the optimal development of our world-class asset base.

    謝謝,Mark。今天的業績持續展現 Range 相較於我們多年期計畫的強勁營運表現、穩健的自由現金流創造,以及對該現金流審慎的配置,在資本回饋、資產負債表強度與我們世界級資產基礎的最佳開發之間取得平衡。

  • As we sit here today, our multiyear plan is on track and years of disciplined planning have placed us in the strongest position in our company history, having derisked a high-quality inventory measured in decades and translated that into a business capable of generating significant free cash flow through cycles.

    以我們今天所處的狀態來看,我們的多年期計畫進展如期;多年來的紀律性規劃使我們處於公司史上最強的位置:我們已降低風險、擁有以數十年計的高品質庫存,並將其轉化為一個能夠在景氣循環中持續產生可觀自由現金流的業務。

  • With that, let's open the line for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jake Roberts, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.

    (接線員指示) Jake Roberts,Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company。

  • Jake Roberts - Analyst

    Jake Roberts - Analyst

  • Mark, you mentioned the linked floating contracts for the European and Asian markets on the propane and butane, can you frame on a percentage or volume basis, which each market received in Q1? And how you see those amounts moving into Q2 and beyond? And maybe if I could ask if you could disclose those contract terms.

    Mark,你提到針對歐洲與亞洲市場的丙烷與丁烷連動浮動合約;你能否以百分比或量的角度說明,第一季各市場分別接收了多少?以及你如何看待這些數量在第二季及之後的變化?另外,如果可以的話,能否揭露這些合約條款?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • To answer the last question first, no. There is some competition in this business, as you'd expect. So our marketing team has done an outstanding job over the years building relationships, managing exports out of the East Coast, cargo by cargo. So those relationships, the understanding of timing of the fact that what you're seeing on a screen may not be what is on the physical side of things, when these cargo loadings are planned a month, two months, three months in advance.

    先回答最後一個問題:不行。如你所料,這個業務確實存在競爭。因此,我們的行銷團隊多年來在建立關係、逐船管理從東岸出口方面做得非常出色。這些關係,以及對時點的掌握——你在螢幕上看到的未必等同於實體市場的狀況——因為這些貨船裝載計畫通常會提前一個月、兩個月、三個月安排。

  • So I guess to take a step back, as you know, roughly 80% of our propane is exported out of the East Coast. Of that, I would say the majority, well over half is linked to what I'll term as a medium-term contract that has tied to ARA and FEI. So we export out of the East Coast and therefore, with those molecules on the water can benefit from international demand and the need for those molecules, given the dependence on international chem, heating, consumer demand on US molecules on the water.

    我想先退一步說明:如你所知,我們約 80% 的丙烷是從東岸出口。其中我會說大多數——遠超過一半——是連結到我所稱的中期合約,並與 ARA 與 FEI 掛鉤。因此我們從東岸出口,讓這些在海上的分子能受惠於國際需求與對這些分子的需要;鑑於國際化工、供暖與消費需求對「在海上的美國分子」的依賴。

  • So in terms of those deals, no, we can't go into -- we don't wish to go into specifics of them but just that they are very strong netbacks as evidenced by the $4-plus corporate average premium to Mont Belvieu.

    至於這些交易,我們無法——也不希望——談到具體細節;但可以說它們的淨回收(netbacks)非常強勁,這也反映在公司整體相對 Mont Belvieu 平均每加侖溢價 4 美元以上的表現。

  • Jake Roberts - Analyst

    Jake Roberts - Analyst

  • Yes, I appreciate that. You know I had to try. Dennis, I want to touch on Fort Cherry. Last call, you framed it as making reasonable progress towards finding an end user, I was hoping for an update there.

    好的,我理解。你知道我得試著問問。Dennis,我想談一下 Fort Cherry。上次電話會議你提到在尋找終端用戶方面取得合理進展,我希望你能更新一下。

  • And maybe for Mark, could you opine on how you're thinking about the marketing strategy given the -- I see kind of more clear line of sight to LNG type of opportunities, given the ongoing demand versus these power center or data center projects that seem to require a bit more negotiation to get across the finish line.

    另外給 Mark 的問題:在行銷策略上你怎麼思考?因為相較於這些似乎需要更多協商才能落地的電力中心或資料中心專案,我看到 LNG 類型的機會在持續需求支撐下,能見度似乎更清楚。

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet, Jake. I'll go ahead and try and unpack this here. From the data center perspective, we're still seeing what I would say is regular and really, quite honestly, a good cadence of a dialogue around that particular Fort Cherry location and that opportunity.

    當然可以,Jake。我來試著把這件事拆解說明。就資料中心的角度而言,我們仍然看到,對於 Fort Cherry 這個特定地點與機會,對話的節奏我會說是持續且坦白講相當不錯。

  • But in addition, if I were to put some context around it, there's probably a little over a dozen projects that were having a similar level of dialogue around and I think the announcement that we made just as a kind of a reminder for everyone, the announcement we made this past quarter earnings process for the $75 million a day of supply that's going to go into a power link type structure into the Midwest transport that we have. I think that's a sign of something that was a good indication of what was going on in the background while we were still working on this Fort Cherry-type opportunity.

    此外,如果我再補充一些背景,我們大概還有十多個專案也在進行類似程度的對話;而我想提醒大家,我們在本季財報流程中所宣布的——每日 7,500 萬的供應量,將透過一種 power link 類型的架構,導入我們在中西部的運輸系統——我認為這是個訊號,顯示在我們仍在推進 Fort Cherry 類型機會的同時,背後其實也有不少進展在發生。

  • So we think there's a lot more to come. We also point to things like the NextEra announcement. Clearly, that power gen facility is going to go into the Southwest PA, Appalachia region. We think there's a real opportunity for Range to participate in a facility like that as details continue to get, I'll just say, sussed out on location and then who could, of course, have connective pipelines to get into that facility. So we think there's a lot of opportunity for us to continue to see this expand.

    因此我們認為後續還會有更多進展。我們也會提到像 NextEra 的公告。很明顯,那座發電設施將落在賓州西南部、阿帕拉契地區。我們認為 Range 有很好的機會參與這類設施;隨著地點等細節逐步明朗,當然也包括誰能提供連接管線把氣送進該設施。因此我們認為我們將持續看到這個領域的機會擴大。

  • And I would even say lastly, we've even seen some dialogue with the same counterparty that we made the announcement around this past quarter for some potential additional supply. So that's positive on two fronts for us.

    最後我甚至可以說,我們也看到與我們在本季公告中提到的同一個交易對手,就潛在的額外供應展開了一些對話。這對我們而言在兩個面向都是正面的。

  • One, the ability to potentially, and I'll underline potentially, expand our volumes into that future infrastructure, but it also provides another confidence shot in the arm, if you will, that this is serious that these are moving forward, and it's not just a [75 million] a day commitment, but you can actually see the serious commitment around putting shovels in the ground and getting this infrastructure built.

    第一,是有能力在未來的基礎設施中,潛在地——我強調是潛在地——擴大我們的供應量;第二,它也再次增強我們的信心:這些確實是認真的、正在往前推進,不只是每日 [7,500 萬] 的承諾,你也能看到他們對於動工、把這些基礎設施建起來的嚴肅投入。

  • So a lot of activity in this space by our marketing team to try and find good opportunities that will align with Range. We know that these are multi-decade financial commitments and decisions by these end users and counterparties, and we think it's perfect alignment with a company like Range that's got a long-term surety of supply and inventory like we do.

    因此,我們的行銷團隊在這個領域非常活躍,努力尋找與 Range 相契合的優質機會。我們知道,對這些終端用戶與交易對手而言,這些都是跨數十年的財務承諾與決策;而我們認為這與像 Range 這樣具備長期供應確定性與長期庫存的公司,是完美契合的。

  • So we'll certainly provide updates as we see more come forward and look forward to doing so.

    我們會在看到更多進展時提供更新,也期待能這麼做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Daoud, Truist.

    Gabe Daoud,Truist。

  • Gabriel Daoud - Equity Analyst

    Gabriel Daoud - Equity Analyst

  • If we could maybe start with the production trajectory on the back of Harmon Creek entering service. I guess you noted mid-year, is that June or July? And just trying to think through any commissioning or ramp-up period post that? And beyond this year and I guess, even '27, what are maybe some updated thoughts around that 2.6 Bcfe a day. What will ultimately govern the decision to either toggle that up or down or keep it flat?

    我們或許可以先從 Harmon Creek 投入服務後的產量走勢談起。你提到年中,是指 6 月還是 7 月?並且想請你說明在那之後是否會有任何試運轉或爬坡期?另外,超過今年、甚至到 2027 年,對於每日 2.6 Bcfe 這個水準,你們是否有一些更新的想法?最終會由哪些因素來決定要把它往上調、往下調,或維持持平?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. As we start to think about really the months ahead here in 2026, our production character should look really similar to what you've seen in others over the last few years under a maintenance-to-maintenance plus type program. So actually looking at Q1 production, it's almost an ideal overlay characterized to what we had a year ago.

    是的。當我們開始思考 2026 年接下來幾個月時,我們的產量型態應該會與過去幾年在「維持產量到略增」的計畫下所看到的非常相似。事實上,回頭看第一季產量,幾乎可以說與一年前的狀況是理想的對照重疊。

  • Several of the turn-in lines that occurred toward the back end of Q1, we'll now start to pack the system of available infrastructure that we have. And what you'll see is has been our ability to step into this commissioning of infrastructure that's going to occur toward the end of Q2 and in the beginning of Q1. So we have some gathering and compression that's going into service towards the end of Q2, and the processing will be right there at the midyear point, which, again, we think with this loop gathering system that we produce into, it's got a lot of optionality as we think about the efficiency around moving molecules around the field.

    第一季後段發生的幾條接入管線,現在將開始把我們現有的可用基礎設施系統填滿。而你將會看到的是,我們有能力銜接上將在第二季末、以及第一季初進行的這些基礎設施投運。因此,我們有一些集輸與壓縮設施會在第二季末投入服務,而處理(processing)將在年中左右到位;同樣地,我們認為透過我們所接入的環狀集輸系統,在思考如何更有效率地在區塊內調度分子時,具備很高的彈性。

  • Back half of the year is where we really start to see the increase in production take off. And so think about it being kind of fairly ratable across Q3 and Q4 as we start to end the year at 2.5 Bcf equivalent per day. The second completion crew that we mentioned in our prepared remarks that will start in Q2 or has started actually here in the second quarter, the activity of the DUC inventory that it will start to turn into sales through the next six months is really going to be -- I'll just say the tailwind that generates that production ramp in the back half of the year. It's going to utilize that processing and gathering infrastructure addition and then it's going to also provide some really significant momentum as we then work toward that 2.6 Bcf a day type number in 2027.

    下半年才是我們真正開始看到產量增長加速起飛的時段。因此可以把它想成在第三季與第四季之間相對均衡、可預期地提升,因為我們在年底將達到每日 2.5 Bcf 當量。我們在事先準備的發言中提到的第二支完井隊,將在第二季開始——其實已在本季第二季啟動——它所帶動的 DUC(已鑽未完井)庫存活動,會在接下來六個月開始轉化為銷售,這將會是——我就直說——推動下半年產量爬升的順風。它會運用新增的處理與集輸基礎設施,並且在我們朝 2027 年每日 2.6 Bcf 這類數字邁進時,提供相當顯著的動能。

  • And to kind of answer your -- and everything is on track from an infrastructure standpoint for this year. And when we think about what's beyond 2027, I think we have to go back to maybe how we started the first question here today, and that is what -- it's going to start with a conversation around what kind of demand and opportunity further materializes.

    而為了回應你的——就基礎設施角度而言,今年一切都按計畫進行。至於我們思考 2027 年之後會是什麼樣子,我想我們得回到今天第一個問題的起點,也就是——這將從一段關於何種需求與機會會進一步具體化的對話開始。

  • If there is an opportunity for Range to participate in additional growth, we think there's a really strong opportunity for that to take shape, but it's got to take shape. And so once that occurs, we think there's a really capital efficient and thoughtful way for us to add another wedge of growth and doing so with a very similar capital investment that you've seen us commit to over the past 24 months.

    如果 Range 有機會參與額外的成長,我們認為這個機會非常強,有望成形,但前提是它必須真的成形、落地。因此一旦那發生,我們認為我們有一種資本效率很高且審慎周全的方式,可以再增加一段成長的「楔形」,而且所需的資本投入會與你們過去 24 個月看到我們承諾的水準非常相近。

  • So we really think it will -- it has an opportunity to be very steady as she goes beyond 2027. If not, we have the ability to pull capital down and it could be somewhere in the $570 million to $600 million type range, where we can hold that 2.6 Bcfe equivalent type level flat until we see again that next step up with demand that materializes.

    所以我們確實認為——在 2027 年之後,它有機會維持非常穩健、按部就班的狀態。如果沒有,我們也有能力下調資本支出,可能落在 5.7 億到 6 億美元左右的區間,在我們再次看到需求具體化、出現下一個上台階之前,把 2.6 Bcfe 當量這類水準維持持平。

  • So we're really optimistic about the future, especially as you get closer to the end of the decade, but we'll be able to have another thoughtful wage of growth as we see more demand take shape.

    因此我們對未來非常樂觀,尤其是越接近本十年末期;而且隨著更多需求逐步成形,我們也能以審慎周全的方式再增加另一段成長的「楔形」。

  • Gabriel Daoud - Equity Analyst

    Gabriel Daoud - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. That's really clear. And then maybe just my second question back to the LPG side, and I appreciate all the prepared remarks and the answer to the earlier question, but curious if you could maybe put a little bit of a finer point or updated thoughts on the macro, given all the domestic and international moving pieces and even maybe elevated shipping costs. (inaudible) comes on around midyear.

    了解。好。這非常清楚。那我第二個問題想回到 LPG 這一塊。我很感謝你們所有事先準備的發言以及對前一題的回答,但我想請你們就總體環境再更精準一點、或提供一些更新的看法:考量到國內與國際的各種變動因素,甚至可能偏高的航運成本。(聽不清)大約在年中上線。

  • So US propane exports grow to 2 million barrels a day plus. Is that clear the inventory glut in your mind domestically? And then from an international standpoint, thoughts on China PDH run rates and maybe any other puts and takes that could ultimately impact the premium that you expect over Belvieu?

    所以美國丙烷出口成長到每日 200 萬桶以上。在你看來,這是否能在國內消化掉庫存過剩?另外從國際面來看,對中國 PDH(丙烷脫氫)開工率的看法,以及可能還有哪些利多利空,最終會影響你們預期相對於 Belvieu 的溢價?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet you. Thanks again, Gabe. So I'll kind of start here on the macro side by really saying, look, exports, and I think you pointed to it have really remained strong. If you look at the DUC capacity expansion that took place and went into service, last year. I mean, that was incredibly helpful when you think about starting to chip away at the current stock levels.

    當然。再次謝謝你,Gabe。我先從總體面談起:你也提到了,出口確實一直維持強勁。如果你看去年已完成並投運的 DUC 產能擴建,當你想到要開始逐步消化目前的庫存水位時,那確實非常有幫助。

  • Look, I think it's commonly known that the stock levels are elevated. We're talking somewhere roughly 70% above where we've seen historical averages. But we added 150,000 barrels a day in export capacity last year. That's been at a high end of utilization, but I think one of the more, I'll just say, today's story is flex capacity that's gone into service out of the Gulf that adds in at the 360,000 barrels a day of LPG export capacity. I think that was originally earmarked for more ethane service, but it's now been put into LPG service, and the first vessels have actually left the DUC.

    你看,我想大家都知道庫存水位偏高。我們談的是大約比歷史平均高出 70% 左右。但我們去年新增了每日 15 萬桶的出口產能。那一直維持在高端的利用率;不過我認為更——我就說——更像是今天的重點,是墨西哥灣新增投運的彈性產能,增加了每日 36 萬桶的 LPG 出口能力。我想那原本是規劃更多用於乙烷服務,但現在已轉為 LPG 服務,而且第一批船舶其實已經從 DUC 出港。

  • So we find that really encouraging when you start to think about pulling down stock levels over the balance of the year. And then, of course, there's another 300,000 barrels of additional capacity that's going to go into service on the export side by late 2026. So you're talking about meaningful impacts when you think about the ability to pull down stock levels.

    因此當你開始思考在今年剩餘期間拉低庫存水位時,我們覺得這非常令人鼓舞。當然,到了 2026 年底,出口端還會有另外 30 萬桶的新增產能投運。所以當你想到拉低庫存水位的能力時,這些都是具實質意義的影響。

  • Of course, from a demand perspective, when we take a little bit more broader terms over the next 24 months, there's another 0.5 million barrels of demand that's going to go into service on, as you pointed out, the PDH type infrastructure. We think that all kind of goes hand in glove as you think about the ability for us to get more barrels on a waterborne export as an industry and then also meeting growing demand that's going into service over the next 24 months.

    當然,從需求面來看,如果我們用更宏觀的角度看未來 24 個月,還會有另外 50 萬桶的需求投運,正如你指出的,主要來自 PDH 類型的基礎設施。我們認為,當你思考整個產業把更多桶數放到海運出口,以及同時滿足未來 24 個月投運的成長需求時,這些因素是相互配合、相輔相成的。

  • Look, the dynamics of late have been very unique. And I think it's -- as we're all trying to navigate these particular moment, the reality is that the business has actually been as resilient as we've seen as has really demonstrated by the quarterly numbers that we just communicated.

    你看,近期的動態非常特殊。我想——當我們都在努力應對這個特定時點時——現實是,這門生意其實展現出我們所見過的那種韌性,而這也由我們剛剛對外溝通的季度數字所充分證明。

  • But as we think about the future, exports, we expect to remain strong. There's going to be a call and a need for future LPG barrels out of the US, which we think plays really well to our ability to get, as we heard Mark talk about, 80% of our LPG on a waterborne export out of Marcus Hook. And also I would be remiss not to point out the Repauno terminal that will go into service in January of 2027. That's going to allow us to have more access to waterborne exports.

    但展望未來,我們預期出口將維持強勁。未來市場會對來自美國的 LPG 桶數有需求與需要;我們認為這非常有利於我們的能力——正如你聽到 Mark 談到的——我們能透過 Marcus Hook 以海運方式出口我們 80% 的 LPG。此外,我也不能不提 Repauno 終端將於 2027 年 1 月投運。那將讓我們有更多海運出口的管道與可及性。

  • So all that to say, we've got demand growing, run rate show to be improving, and we would expect in the longer-term stock levels to get re-equilibrated over the balance of the year.

    總之,我們看到需求在成長、開工率顯示有望改善,而我們也預期從較長期來看,庫存水位會在今年剩餘期間重新回到均衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs & Company.

    Neil Mehta,高盛公司(Goldman Sachs & Company)。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yes. Great. Thanks, team. I want to stay on the NGL question. The $4.41 differential that you achieved in the first quarter, I think, was robust by any modeling standpoint. And just can you spend more time talking about what drove the magnitude of that beat? And then I saw you guys came out in the guide now talking about a $24 sort of mid-cycle view of NGLs. We've been realizing above that for the last couple of years. Do you think there's an upward bias relative to that number?

    是的。很好。謝謝,各位。我想繼續追問 NGL 的問題。你們第一季達成的 4.41 美元價差,我認為從任何模型角度看都相當強勁。你們能否多花點時間談談,究竟是什麼驅動了這個超預期幅度?另外我看到你們在最新指引中提到 NGL 約 24 美元的中周期看法。過去幾年我們的實現價格都高於那個水準。你們認為相對於那個數字,是否存在上行偏差?

  • Alan Engberg - Vice President of Marketing

    Alan Engberg - Vice President of Marketing

  • Yes. Good question. This is Alan. I manage the marketing group. So I'll take a stab at answering your question there.

    是的。好問題。我是 Alan。我負責行銷團隊。所以我來嘗試回答你的問題。

  • When we look back at the realization during the first quarter on the NGL side, really three main drivers. So we'll go back to January, winter storm Fern. We had high gas prices. That allowed us to actually realize better gas returns. We actually pulled back on ethane recoveries, so that we can do better on gas.

    當我們回顧第一季在 NGL 端的實現價格時,主要有三個驅動因素。我們先回到一月,冬季風暴 Fern。當時天然氣價格很高。這讓我們實際上能取得更好的天然氣回報。我們也降低了乙烷回收率,這樣我們在天然氣端就能做得更好。

  • But flipping back to NGLs with your question. It also allowed us to realize better numbers on our ethane because we do have roughly a third of our contracts on ethane that are priced off of natural gas. So that was one item that drove the premium. Second item, again, along with the weather and the cold, the demand for LPG in the Northeast domestically was strong, and we were able to realize good prices with sales within the US during January and February.

    不過回到你問題中提到的 NGL。這也讓我們在乙烷上實現了更好的數字,因為我們大約有三分之一的乙烷合約是以天然氣作為定價基準。所以那是推動溢價的一個因素。第二個因素,同樣地,配合天氣與寒流,美國東北部國內對 LPG 的需求強勁,我們在一月與二月於美國境內銷售也得以實現不錯的價格。

  • And then the third item, the one that I think most people are focusing on is the international export. That really came into play actually roughly a week or two before the events in Iran with a terminal that went down in Saudi Arabia, and that, despite the international prices, which then spike better returns at the DUC for us. So you add all those three things together, it was a good quarter. Things aligned very well. We are positioned with flexibility so that we could move from domestic markets to international markets and capture the best overall netback for Range.

    第三個因素,也是我認為多數人最關注的,就是國際出口。這其實是在伊朗事件發生前大約一到兩週開始發酵,因為沙烏地阿拉伯有一座終端停擺;在那之後,儘管國際價格波動,卻讓我們在 DUC 端獲得更好的回報。把這三件事加總起來,這是一個很好的季度。各項條件配合得非常好。我們具備彈性,可以從國內市場轉向國際市場,為 Range 捕捉整體最佳的淨回收(netback)。

  • When we look forward, yes, we're going to be a little bit conservative in our view. But you have to remember, there's seasonality in that premium. And when you get into shoulder months and even summer months, sometimes just from a pure seasonal perspective, you don't do quite as well. Also, if you look at where prices went, let's say, mid-March compared to where they are today, on average, if you look at, let's say, international propane mid-March, it was up, call it, 80% relative to precrisis levels. That is now somewhere around, call it, plus 30% or plus 40% relative to precrisis levels, still very attractive but not quite what we were seeing in the middle of March.

    展望未來,是的,我們的看法會稍微保守一些。但你必須記得,這個溢價具有季節性。進入淡旺季交替的肩季,甚至夏季月份,單就季節性而言,有時表現不會那麼好。另外,如果你看價格走勢,例如三月中旬相較於今天的水準,平均而言,以國際丙烷三月中旬來看,相對於危機前水準大約上漲了 80%。現在大約是相對於危機前水準上漲 30% 到 40% 左右,仍然非常有吸引力,但不如三月中旬時我們看到的那麼高。

  • And we would expect that going forward, even if there is a solution, let's say, if the street ever moves in the next couple of weeks, it's still going to take months to get flows back to normal, and there's millions of barrels of worth of inventory that have been consumed internationally. So with that, we are expecting good returns through the rest of the year on the export netbacks.

    我們預期未來即使出現解決方案,假設市場在接下來幾週真的有所反應,要讓流量恢復正常仍需要數個月,而且國際上已有數百萬桶等值的庫存被消耗。因此,我們預期今年剩餘時間出口淨回收(export netbacks)仍會帶來不錯的回報。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • That's great. Staying on the macro, just natural gas, we share your [375] mid-cycle view. But one of the pushbacks we get often is the weakness in Permian, specifically WAHA, now trading [6 under 0], right? So the question is, as those molecules move down to the Gulf Coast, what could that mean ultimately for the whole North American pricing system? So just how are you guys thinking about that the Permian gas risk, the associated gas supply risk and how that could put a depressing impact on price?

    很好。延續宏觀面的話題,就天然氣而言,我們認同你們的[375]中周期看法。但我們常遇到的反對意見是二疊紀盆地(Permian)的疲弱,特別是 WAHA,現在交易在[低於 0 6],對吧?所以問題是,當這些分子(天然氣)往墨西哥灣沿岸移動時,最終可能對整個北美定價體系意味著什麼?你們如何看待二疊紀盆地天然氣風險、伴生氣供給風險,以及它可能對價格造成的壓抑影響?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Neil, I'll jump in here. I think when you start to think about the Permian gas dynamics, I don't think this is a place that we haven't seen, I'll just say the character of this play out over the past now several years. But when I think about what's going on, really rig count hasn't changed appreciably since the beginning of the year if you were to just kind of look at those dynamics. So stepping in with additional rig activity to create, I'll just say, a significant amount of growth really hasn't really shown up yet.

    好的,Neil,我來補充。我認為當你開始思考二疊紀盆地的天然氣動態時,這並不是我們過去幾年沒有見過的情況;我只能說,這種情節的「特性」在過去幾年已經上演過。但就我對目前狀況的看法,如果你從年初到現在去看,鑽機數其實沒有顯著變化。因此,透過增加鑽機活動來帶動、我只能說,顯著的成長,目前其實還沒有真正出現。

  • Clearly, there's been an increase in completion crews. I think roughly -- that number is up across the board, probably around 12 to 15 in magnitude but that's also kind of similar in character to what you see when you look at the falloff at the end of a prior year and then to kind of start off at the beginning of this year. But it's still below pre year-over-year type levels from a standpoint of activity.

    很明顯地,完井隊伍數量有所增加。我想大致上——這個數字整體增加了,幅度可能約 12 到 15;但這也有點像你看到前一年年底活動下滑、然後在今年年初重新啟動時的那種特性。不過從活動量的角度來看,仍低於先前年同比的水準。

  • And then, of course, I think what that means is you're seeing a bit of a DUC draw. DUC inventory is down across the lower 48 by about 20%. So when we think about the nat gas macro and you start to couple together all of those fun facts, I think our view is there will be some gas growth out of the Permian.

    然後,當然,我認為這代表你會看到 DUC 有些消化。美國本土 48 州的 DUC 庫存下降了大約 20%。所以當我們思考天然氣宏觀,並把這些有趣的事實串在一起時,我們的看法是二疊紀盆地確實會有一些天然氣增長。

  • But when you look at -- clearly, we're at 20 Bcf a day now from an LNG perspective, that's pretty encouraging. You're seeing meaningful commissioning gas go through Train 1 at Golden Pass. That's been a long awaited and now encouraging as well. And so we kind of look at it as where production levels are today and the dynamics, I don't think quite reflect where the front month pricing really should be. You get to the end of the injection season, we kind of view this as being more of a 3.8 to maybe 3.9 Tcf storage level.

    但如果你看——很明顯地,從 LNG 的角度我們現在已經到每天 20 Bcf,這相當令人鼓舞。你也看到 Golden Pass 的第 1 列(Train 1)有相當可觀的投運用氣(commissioning gas)通過。這是大家等待已久的,現在也同樣令人振奮。因此我們的看法是,以目前的產量水準與動態來看,我不認為它完全反映了近月合約價格本應有的水準。到了注氣季結束時,我們大致認為庫存會落在約 3.8、可能到 3.9 Tcf 的水準。

  • That's where we've been the last couple of years and then couple that with all of the demand that's taking shape right in front of us. You're talking about being on a days of supply basis at about 37 days. That's about five days below the five-year average. So again, what we really think that sets up is more volatility, which we've now seen occur over the past couple of years. And when those moments happen, like we just saw over the past quarter, you can expect Range to really have an opportunity to capture the kind of cash flow that you heard Mark walk through this morning.

    過去幾年我們大致就是這樣的水準,再加上所有正在我們眼前成形的需求。以供應天數(days of supply)來看,大約是 37 天。這比五年平均低了大約 5 天。所以我們真正認為會形成的是更高的波動性,而這在過去幾年我們也已經看到。當那些時刻出現時,就像我們剛在上一季看到的,你可以預期 Range 會有機會捕捉到你今天早上聽 Mark 說明的那種現金流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Diamond, Citi.

    Citi 的 Paul Diamond。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Just wanted to touch on your OpEx and numbers you've touched. It's historically been that every dollar moved in NGL is about a cent in GP&T and then about $0.02 to $0.03 per dollar movement in the gas side. Does that hold in current market dislocations, I mean, is the right way to think about that as linear? Or should there be some, I don't know, parabolic effect given the volatility you were just talking about.

    我想談一下你們的營運費用(OpEx)以及你們提到的一些數字。歷來的經驗是,NGL 每變動 1 美元,大約會反映為 GP&T 增減 1 美分,而在天然氣端則是每變動 1 美元約增加 0.02 到 0.03 美元。在目前市場錯位的情況下,這個關係還成立嗎?也就是說,這樣的思考方式仍然可以視為線性嗎?或者在你們剛提到的波動性之下,成本會出現某種,我不知道,拋物線式的效應?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think as a rule of thumb, those are probably good estimates to use. Historically, as NGL prices have moved around and we've talked about fluctuations in GP&T, we've really focused on the NGL side because that's where you've seen the greater volatility.

    我認為作為經驗法則,那些估算大概是可以使用的。歷來當 NGL 價格波動、我們談到 GP&T 的起伏時,我們確實更聚焦在 NGL 端,因為那裡的波動性更大。

  • As we've already talked about and as all of us are studying, greater volatility on the gas side, in particular with the winter weather in the first quarter when we saw [469] in January gas, [746] in February, back down to March at [297], you've got a situation that made it more apparent what cost the industry as a whole, carries as it relates to cost of electricity and fuel for transportation of gas or interstate pipelines. So if you want to say $0.02 to maybe $0.03 per dollar on the gas side, that's a reasonable ballpark estimate. It still holds for Range, specifically a dollar move per barrel of NGLs is about $0.01 in GP&T.

    如同我們已經談過、也如同大家都在研究的,天然氣端的波動性更大,特別是在第一季冬季天氣下,我們看到一月天然氣[469]、二月[746],三月又回落到[297];這讓整個產業在電力成本與燃料成本(用於天然氣運輸或州際管線)方面所承擔的成本更為明顯。所以如果你要說天然氣端每變動 1 美元約 0.02 到 0.03 美元,這是合理的概略估計。對 Range 來說仍然成立,特別是 NGL 每桶價格每變動 1 美元,GP&T 大約變動 0.01 美元。

  • I think the key point here is that, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks earlier, is that right way risk scenario where the margins are expanding. So if that line item goes up, it's because we are realizing higher prices and expanded margins. So I wouldn't say it's parabolic in terms of the cost line item. But if you're thinking about the two, you're going to get a wider spread because there's a fixed component in the cost structure as well. So the margins do expand.

    我認為這裡的重點是,如同我先前在準備好的發言中提到的,這是一個右尾風險(right way risk)的情境,也就是利潤率在擴張。因此如果那個費用科目上升,是因為我們實現了更高的價格與更擴大的利潤率。所以我不會說成本科目是以拋物線方式上升。但如果你把兩者放在一起思考,你會得到更寬的價差,因為成本結構中也有固定成分。因此利潤率會擴張。

  • And of course, they shrunk in commodity price down cycles as well. So it's the right way risk. So hopefully, that answers your question, but we like the structure a great deal because it gives us flexibility that Alan spoke to in the portfolio. It builds that portfolio and participation and access to key markets with a structure that allows us to capture enhanced margins when we see these points of volatility and opportunity.

    當然,在商品價格下行週期中,它們也會縮減。所以這是正確的風險管理方式。希望這回答了你的問題;我們非常喜歡這個架構,因為它讓我們在投資組合中具備 Alan 所提到的彈性。它以一種架構建立該投資組合、參與度與對關鍵市場的進入,並使我們在看到這些波動與機會點時,能夠掌握更高的利潤率。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Understood. Makes perfect sense. And just talking a bit more about the -- as you guys burn in the DUCs or bring down the DUCs part of the growth prospects, I guess how much -- is what level of reactivity in the production split do we expect to see the current conditions shift this? Any like kind of leading towards sort of more wet versus dry gas? Or is it all pretty much set for the coming quarters?

    了解。非常合理。再多談一點關於——當你們消化 DUC(已鑽未完井)或降低 DUC 作為成長前景的一部分時,我想問在目前條件變動下,我們預期產量組合會出現多大程度的反應?例如是否會更偏向濕氣而非乾氣?還是說接下來幾個季度基本上都已經定下來了?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Paul, good question. I think as you think about the DUC inventory that's been built over the last 24 months and what you would expect to see going forward, maybe two things I'll share this morning.

    是的,Paul,問得好。我想,當你思考過去 24 個月累積的 DUC 庫存,以及你對未來的預期時,今天早上我分享兩點。

  • One, really, the composition and makeup of the activity should look really similar to what you've seen from our program over the last few years where, again, approximately, you could expect to see some combination of 70%, it's maybe 65% on the liquids activity and then the remaining more on the dry gas side. And that's for varying reasons. But clearly, utilization of gathering systems that we have in place, keeping our costs at a low level, but also those are good returns in the dry side as well for -- when you look at the comparable across our asset base.

    第一,整體活動的組成與配置應該會與你過去幾年從我們計畫中看到的非常相似;也就是說,大約你可以預期某種組合:70%——可能是 65%——在液體相關的活動上,其餘則更多在乾氣端。原因有很多。但很明顯,一方面是利用我們既有的集輸系統、把成本維持在低水準;另一方面,當你在我們資產組合中做可比比較時,乾氣端也同樣能帶來不錯的報酬。

  • But with the infrastructure that's going into service at the mid-year point, it's focused on the liquid side. So our activity of turn-in lines and completions will be more heavily focused on the liquids-rich activity thus feeding not only the processing capacity and gathering that's going into service, but also that Repauno terminal capacity that I mentioned a little bit earlier that we'll go into service roughly around the first of the year. So think along the lines of our DUC inventory being more weighted heavily toward the liquids-rich activity, much like you've seen over the last few years.

    不過,將在年中投運的基礎設施是聚焦在液體端。因此,我們的接管(turn-in)管線與完井活動會更偏重於富液(liquids-rich)活動,從而不僅為即將投運的處理能力與集輸系統提供供給,也為我稍早提到、約在明年年初投運的 Repauno 終端能力提供供給。所以可以把我們的 DUC 庫存理解為更偏重於富液活動,這與你過去幾年看到的情況非常相似。

  • And then the last piece that I'll share with you is, look, we've got around 500,000 lateral feet that we've built up over the last couple of years. And what you would expect to see with a consistent activity from our base electric hydraulic fracturing crew but also the spot activity that we'll have over like the next six months of this year, and the activity that we'll have next year will allow us to ratably utilize around 400,000 lateral feet over the balance of the next 18 to 24 months, and then we'll reevaluate what's the right plan for beyond 2027.

    最後一點我想分享的是:我們在過去幾年累積了大約 500,000 英尺的水平段(lateral)長度。在我們既有的電動壓裂隊持續作業、以及今年接下來大約六個月的短期(spot)作業,再加上明年的作業安排下,你可以預期我們在未來 18 到 24 個月的剩餘期間,將以均衡的節奏消化大約 400,000 英尺的水平段長度,之後我們會重新評估 2027 年之後的合適計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leo Mariani, ROTH.

    Leo Mariani,ROTH。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you could be a little bit more specific on the kind of the change that you expect on production into 2Q as well as CapEx in the 2Q. I heard in your prepared comments, it sounds like production is only up slightly, then you get a big jump in 3Q. But anything you do to quantify. And it sounds like CapEx will also be up a decent amount here in 2Q.

    我想看看你們能否更具體一點,談談你們預期第二季(2Q)產量的變化,以及第二季資本支出(CapEx)。我在你們事先準備的發言中聽起來,產量只會小幅上升,然後第三季(3Q)會大幅跳升。但能否做一些量化?另外聽起來第二季的資本支出也會上升不少。

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Leo. So I think from an activity standpoint, if you look back on Q1, we had one rig and one frac crew. Ultimately, that was $139 million in capital spending. So a way of thinking about it for maybe a little bit more color, roughly, the completion side is going to be -- it's a two-third, one-third roughly split. So completions is roughly two-thirds of the equation.

    是的,Leo。從作業活動角度來看,如果你回顧第一季(Q1),我們是一座鑽機加上一支壓裂隊。最終資本支出是 1.39 億美元。如果要再補充一些細節,大致上完井端會是——約三分之二對三分之一的分配。也就是說,完井約占整體的三分之二。

  • So when you ratio that and add a second completion crew, that's how I would think about a step-up for the second quarter. Efficiencies always play a part in that. So I would just say, think about what you've seen also from our efficiency standpoint, the ability to, of course, move water and efficient manner, all of those things returning to pad sites allow us to be, let's just say, on the lower end of sometimes what expectations could look like, and we're excited about that capture.

    因此,當你用這個比例去看,並新增第二支完井隊時,這就是我看待第二季資本支出上台階的方式。效率也一直是其中的一部分。所以我會說,請同時考量你們也看到的我們在效率方面的表現:例如當然包括以高效率方式運水等;所有這些回到井場(pad sites)的作業都讓我們可以說,落在有時市場預期的較低端,而我們也很期待把這些成果抓住。

  • So that's how I'd think about capital for the second and to some degree, the third quarter. Look, the completions team has really hit a home run with some of the stages per day that they've accomplished during some pretty tough winter weather and there very well may also be an opportunity for us to not need a second crew as much as you would expect, but the kind of 17 stages per day type efficiency levels that the team has been able to capture. So -- but yes, second quarter, third quarter, we'll have that second completion crew and still be the one drilling rig.

    所以這就是我對第二季、以及某種程度上第三季資本支出的看法。另外,完井團隊在一些相當嚴苛的冬季天候下,仍在每日完成段數(stages per day)方面打出全壘打;我們也很可能有機會不需要像你預期的那麼依賴第二支隊伍,因為團隊已經能達到每天約 17 段這種效率水準。所以——但沒錯,第二季、第三季我們會有第二支完井隊,同時仍維持一座鑽機。

  • From a production standpoint, I would expect to see us kind of take an uptick that basically will be more stronger towards the very tail end of the quarter. And so as you think about that back end of the year, so think about it kind of ranging somewhere from a ramp of roughly 2.3 Bcf equivalent per day towards the midyear point that gets us up to 2.5 Bcf by the time we get to the end of the year.

    從產量角度來看,我預期我們會出現一個上升幅度,但主要會更集中在該季度的尾端。因此,當你思考今年下半年時,可以把它理解為:在年中附近大約從每日 2.3 Bcf 當量(equivalent)逐步爬升,到年底時達到每日 2.5 Bcf。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Okay. Appreciate that. And then just on the financial side, do you guys expect any impact on cash taxes this year or next from kind of higher liquids pricing here? And your buyback program was a little bit more limited in 1Q. Should we expect that to maybe step up in subsequent quarters throughout the year given how good shape the balance sheet is in?

    好的。謝謝說明。另外在財務面,因為目前液體價格較高,你們預期今年或明年的現金稅(cash taxes)會受到任何影響嗎?還有,你們第一季的回購計畫相對比較有限。考量資產負債表狀況這麼好,我們是否應該預期接下來幾個季度回購會在今年內逐步加大?

  • Mark Scucchi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Scucchi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Leo, I'll take those. On the cash taxes, I think I would look towards and still anticipate 2028 is probably the first full cash tax paying type year as we work through new tax laws and Range's accumulated NOL that gains and profits over the next couple of years, we'll be able to utilize. So I would still think single-digit type, low single-digit type cash flow or cash taxes for '26 and '27.

    是的,Leo,我來回答。關於現金稅,我會傾向認為,當我們因應新的稅法並運用 Range 累積的淨營運虧損(NOL)來抵減未來幾年的收益與利潤時,2028 年可能才會是第一個完整需要支付現金稅的年度。所以我仍會認為 2026 年與 2027 年的現金稅(或現金流出)會是低個位數、單位數百分比的水準。

  • As we think about shareholder returns, our model, our goals, our objectives are still the same. We think there's tremendous value in buying back in Range's shares, modest growth as the market calls for it. It has compounded where single-digit growth becomes double-digit cash flow per share growth quite easily with the share repurchase program. And you can see that we're opportunistic and very targeted in how we buy back the shares with repurchases in the first quarter, averaging less than $34 per share repurchase price.

    至於股東回報,我們的模式、目標與宗旨仍然不變。我們認為回購 Range 的股票具有極高價值;同時在市場需要時進行溫和成長。透過股票回購計畫,單位數的成長很容易就能複利成為每股現金流的雙位數成長。你也可以看到,我們在回購上是機會導向且非常有針對性:第一季回購的平均價格低於每股 34 美元。

  • Now in the first quarter, the reality is you're limited on the number of days we can be in the market because as you prepare the financial statements, you are blacked out. So there is that reality of exercising and running an opportunistic program. But where that leaves us today with $834 million in debt and a refreshed share repurchase program with a full $1.5 billion available is we have accumulated a tremendous amount of dry powder and have a great deal of flexibility to lean in and continue to be opportunistic.

    而在第一季,現實情況是我們能在市場上操作的天數有限,因為在編製財務報表期間會進入禁售期(blacked out)。所以在執行並運作一個機會導向的計畫時,確實存在這樣的限制。但就目前而言,我們的負債為 8.34 億美元,且更新後的股票回購計畫仍有完整 15 億美元額度可用;這代表我們已累積了大量「乾火藥」(可動用資金),並具備很大的彈性,可以加大投入並持續把握機會。

  • We are intentionally not formulaic on this. We think we have been able and we'll continue to be able to buy in shares at better pricing by being somewhat picky and when we lean in. But what that means is as we see a pullback or a disconnect in relative performance, we've got a significant capability to buy back shares.

    我們在這方面刻意不採取一成不變的公式化做法。我們認為,透過保持一定的挑剔程度並在適當時點加大力道,我們一直能、也將持續能以更好的價格回購股份。但這也意味著,當我們看到相對表現出現回檔或脫鉤時,我們具備相當可觀的能力來回購股份。

  • What I would say, if you just want to plumb line is a very basic expectation is that year over year, we would expect for share counts to go down, that is an objective. I can't say that's going to happen every single quarter, but year over year on any 12-month period, we would certainly hope and expect and plan for share count to go down.

    我想說的是,如果你只是想抓一條基準線,那麼一個非常基本的預期是:以年對年來看,我們預期股數會下降,這是一個目標。我不能說每一個季度都一定會發生,但以任何12個月期間的年對年來看,我們當然希望、預期並規劃讓股數下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

    Kalei Akamine,美國銀行。

  • Kalei Akamine - Analyst

    Kalei Akamine - Analyst

  • My first question is on NGLs. So really appreciate the macro commentary that stronger DUC utilization could life Mont Belvieu prices. The theory makes a lot of sense. I guess the concern is that the market is more like dry gas where hub and TTF remain decoupled. So curious how you guys explain why this market is different and why there could be better connectivity in global prices?

    我的第一個問題是關於NGL(天然氣液)。非常感謝你們對總體環境的評論,提到更強的DUC利用率可能會推升Mont Belvieu價格。這個理論很有道理。我想疑慮在於,市場更像乾氣市場,Hub與TTF仍然脫鉤。所以想請教你們如何解釋為什麼這個市場不同,以及為什麼全球價格之間可能會有更好的連動性?

  • Alan Engberg - Vice President of Marketing

    Alan Engberg - Vice President of Marketing

  • This is Alan, Kalei, and good question there. I'm trying to -- I'm thinking -- so you're asking how this market is different from in the past. And I guess I'd say the biggest difference this time around is the closure of the Straight of Hormuz and the damage that's been done in the Middle East. LPG of the Middle East, roughly 1.5 million barrels a day in a global waterborne LPG market of about 5 million barrels a day. So roughly 30%.

    我是Alan,Kalei,這是個好問題。我在想——所以你是在問這個市場與過去有何不同。我想這次最大的不同,是荷姆茲海峽的封閉以及中東所遭受的破壞。中東的LPG(液化石油氣)在全球海運LPG市場(約每日500萬桶)中約為每日150萬桶。也就是大約30%。

  • That has been roughly, I would say, 70% of that, so 1 million barrels per day has been absent from the market for the past six weeks. It will probably take a while if things get resolved at the end of April. We're still probably looking two to three months, depending on damage assessments, evaluations, and repairs before that flow can come back. So you've really created a bit of a hole here that is unprecedented. Add to that, that during this period, we're consuming inventories throughout the chemical chain from widgets to polymers to olefins down to feedstocks such as LPG and ethane.

    其中大約有70%,也就是每日100萬桶,在過去六週一直缺席市場。即便事情在4月底解決,可能也需要一段時間。在這些流量能回來之前,我們可能仍要看兩到三個月,取決於損害評估、檢視與維修。所以你確實在這裡造成了一個前所未有的缺口。此外,在這段期間,我們正沿著整個化工鏈消耗庫存,從各類製成品到聚合物、烯烴,一直到LPG與乙烷等原料。

  • So you're consuming that inventory, and it's going to need to get replenished. So those two items there extend, I think, the demand that we were seeing precrisis and really add to that demand significantly and we'll be feeling the impacts of that, I believe, through the rest of this year and into next year. So that's one of the big differences. Fortunately, from a US perspective, we're in the mode of building out export capacity.

    你正在消耗那些庫存,而它們將需要補回。因此,我認為這兩項因素延續了我們在危機前所看到的需求,並且顯著推升需求;我相信其影響將貫穿今年剩餘時間並延續到明年。所以這是其中一個重大差異。所幸從美國的角度來看,我們正處於擴建出口能力的階段。

  • And Dennis already referred to that. We've guided quite a bit in '25. We have new capacity that just came up last week. We have more capacity coming on into next year. And then we still have significant new capacity coming on in '27, '28 and early '29 that will be used really to supply the shortfall globally and we'll keep a strong pull on US supplies. So the setup overall is it's really just improved for the long term as a result of all those changes. Hope answers your question?

    Dennis也已經提到這點。我們在2025年給了相當多的指引。我們有新的產能在上週剛剛投用。明年還會有更多產能上線。此外,在2027、2028以及2029年初,仍有大量新增產能將投用,主要用來補足全球的供給缺口,並將持續對美國供應形成強勁拉動。因此,整體格局是:在所有這些變化之下,長期來看確實變得更有利。希望有回答到你的問題?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I'll add in here, Kalei. I think you mentioned TTF is in the gas side of the equation as well. I think as we think about all of these markets, whether it's the NGL markets or the gas markets, the integration continues. You've gone from essentially no exports to currently running 20 Bcf. We see the potential to reach 30 Bcf exports LNG by 2028 and potentially 36 Bcf by 2030.

    Kalei,我再補充一下。我想你也提到在天然氣這一端,TTF也在這個等式裡。我認為當我們看待所有這些市場——不論是NGL市場或天然氣市場——整合仍在持續。你已經從幾乎沒有出口,走到目前約200億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)的出口量。我們看到到2028年LNG出口有機會達到300億立方英尺/日,並可能在2030年達到360億立方英尺/日。

  • Now layer that in with the complexities and the flows of limited storage capacity expansions in the US, some have been announced in the FID, but you're talking to the tune of 10% to 15% type expansions where you're talking 30% to 40% of the US market is now exported. You're also not seeing expansions in Europe. In fact, you've seen storage facilities shut down. So the US is now de facto storage and supply for Europe and for the rest of the market. So to your point, today, there is a disconnect between TTF and Henry Hub.

    再把這些疊加到美國儲存能力擴張有限的複雜性與流向上:有些已宣布並進入FID(最終投資決策),但規模大約是10%到15%這類的擴張;同時你談的是美國市場已有30%到40%被出口。你也沒有看到歐洲的擴張。事實上,你看到一些儲存設施被關閉。因此,美國如今在事實上成為歐洲以及其他市場的儲存與供應來源。所以就你所說的,今天TTF與Henry Hub之間確實存在脫鉤。

  • The exports are running full out. So you don't have that margin or the ability to swing that marginal molecule to create that connectivity today. But as you continue to add in and commission the new facilities, whether it's Golden Pass and all these other facilities and continue to grow quite substantially, another 50% in LNG, you reconnect to those international markets.

    出口目前是滿載運行。因此你沒有那個餘裕、也沒有能力去調度那個邊際分子,來在今天建立那種連動性。但隨著你持續新增並投運新設施——無論是Golden Pass或其他所有設施——並且LNG再大幅成長約50%,你就會重新與那些國際市場連結起來。

  • So as we look at that, and again, as I mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks, at the same time, you've got domestic power demand, you're effectively going to create once you have one spare molecule of export capacity you create a situation where the markets have to bid the molecule away. So does the US power need it? Do we need it for heating domestically? Does Europe need it, does Asia need it for heating and manufacturing, you name it.

    因此當我們看待這點——同樣如我先前在準備好的發言中提到——同時你還有國內電力需求;一旦你有一個可用於出口的備用分子,你實際上就會形成一種情境:市場必須出價把那個分子「搶走」。所以是美國電力需要它嗎?我們國內取暖需要它嗎?歐洲需要它嗎?亞洲需要它用於取暖與製造嗎?等等。

  • So I think this while that sounds to be competitive tension, it is, but the US market has the capacity, Appalachia specifically has the capacity to provide that gas. You do need the Permian molecules as well. So that's not a fear factor for us. We see this as a great tailwind for the industry to provide reliable capacity, reliable energy supply domestically and globally, a place where Range can grow as that demand pull occurs.

    所以我認為,雖然這聽起來像是競爭張力——確實是——但美國市場有能力提供這些天然氣;阿帕拉契亞(Appalachia)尤其具備提供這些天然氣的能力。你也需要二疊紀(Permian)的分子。因此這對我們而言不是恐懼因素。我們把這視為產業的一大順風:在國內與全球提供可靠的產能、可靠的能源供應;而當需求拉動出現時,Range也有成長的空間。

  • And as a side note, a clear evidence of the fact that we do need some permitting reform both for power lines, pipeline and all forms of energy transportation. So today, you're right, there's a bit of a disconnect, but that's going to ebb and flow quarterly over the next couple of years as the rest of LNG under construction comes online.

    另外補充一點:這也清楚證明我們確實需要一些許可改革,涵蓋電力線、管線以及各種形式的能源運輸。所以你說得對,今天確實有些脫鉤,但在未來幾年,隨著其餘在建LNG專案陸續投產,這種情況將在每個季度間起伏變化。

  • Kalei Akamine - Analyst

    Kalei Akamine - Analyst

  • That's excellent. That's a very thorough explanation. And thank you on the comments on the natural gas. My second question is on the growth program. You're now midway through your 400 million cubic feet gas equivalent target or 20,000 barrels of the NGLs will be sold from the new East Coast stock.

    非常好。這是非常全面的解釋。也謝謝你們對天然氣的評論。我的第二個問題是關於成長計畫。你們現在已經完成你們4億立方英尺天然氣當量目標的一半左右,或者說,將從新的東岸庫存中出售2萬桶的NGL。

  • Can you share anything about the split of those products, whether it's ethane or LPGs? And how -- and should we expect anything different from this contingency contract versus what you currently have?

    你們能否分享一下這些產品的組成比例,無論是乙烷或LPG?以及——相較於你們目前的合約,這份應急合約在內容上是否預期會有任何不同?

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, good question. I think the way to think about our volumes, as you point out and what that looks like in the future, really from an NGL perspective, when we think about the C3+ side of the equation, you should expect to see character wise, very similar contractual and commercial terms like you've seen us communicate in the past.

    是的,好問題。我認為就我們的量來看,如你所指出的,以及未來會是什麼樣子——就NGL角度而言,當我們看C3+這一端時,你應該可以預期,在合約與商業條款的性質上,會與我們過去所溝通的非常相近。

  • Alan and the team have really done a good job over the last few years of working through really what you saw where the results generated this past quarter, putting in both we'll just say medium-term type contract structures that have connections to ARA and FEI markets that we really feel like have some durability to them and indices that we like.

    Alan 和團隊在過去幾年確實做得很出色,把工作重點放在你們在本季所看到的成果上;我們建立了我們稱之為中期型的合約架構,與 ARA 與 FEI 市場連結,我們認為這些合約具有相當的持久性,而且其指數也是我們所偏好的。

  • But also the flip side is that we also have short-term type contract structures where it allows us to take also advantage of what's taking shape in more of a near-term type fashion. So as we think about the expansion at Repauno and our ability to put more barrels on a waterborne export, character-wise, think about it should look very similar to what you've seen in the past on the C3+ side.

    但另一方面,我們也有短期型的合約架構,讓我們能夠把握近期正在成形的機會。因此,當我們思考 Repauno 的擴建,以及我們將更多桶數以水運方式出口的能力時,就特性而言,應該會與你們過去在 C3+ 業務上所看到的情況非常相似。

  • From an ethane perspective, as you would expect, there will be an uptick in ethane extraction just by nature of having more wet gas go through the system. But however, we tend to, obviously, extract down the middle of the fairway.

    從乙烷的角度來看,如你所預期,隨著更多濕氣進入系統,乙烷抽提量自然會上升。不過,我們通常很明顯地會在「合理區間」的中段進行抽提。

  • What we don't do is try and get on the high end of extraction for a lot of reasons. It gives us some ability to be opportunistic when you see running ethane prices and the ability to basically take advantage of price signals during a given month or quarter. But we also have the ability to turn down that extraction, just like you saw the team do during Q1, when it made more sense financially to basically put those molecules back into the gas stream.

    我們不會因為許多原因而試圖把抽提率拉到高端。這讓我們在看到乙烷價格走勢時,能更具機會性,基本上可在某個月份或季度利用價格訊號。但我們也有能力下調抽提,就像你們在第一季看到團隊所做的那樣,當從財務角度來看把那些分子回注到天然氣氣流中更划算時。

  • So there will be a step-up as we have more growth over the balance of time in ethane extraction but know that it's going to be characterized very similar to what you've seen us execute in the past.

    因此,隨著未來一段時間的成長,乙烷抽提會有一個上台階的提升,但請理解,其特徵將與你們過去看到我們執行的方式非常相似。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Phillip Jungwirth, BMO.

    Phillip Jungwirth,BMO。

  • Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

    Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

  • I know you don't want to be formulaic on capital returns, but with net debt now below the historical target range, just wondering if there's a minimum you'd look to get to? Are you comfortable being net cash? Or do we kind of get to a point where we could see Range consistently returning about 100% of free cash flow?

    我知道你們不想把資本回饋做成公式化,但目前淨負債已低於歷史目標區間,只是想請教是否有一個你們希望達到的最低水準?你們是否能接受淨現金狀態?或者我們是否會到某個程度,看到 Range 持續回饋約 100% 的自由現金流?

  • Mark Scucchi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Scucchi - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Very good question. In terms of the art of the possible, could you see range go to a net cash position? The answer is yes. If you have strong commodity price window. If you have a run-up beyond mid-cycle pricing and cash flow is above what you would expect to be in the cycle business, you can and should likely expect us to likely tilt towards accumulating some dry powder because I would expect the stock to be significantly outperforming in that type of a window, whereas in a pullback and a return to a mid-cycle or even down cycle, you could see 100%.

    非常好的問題。就「可能性的藝術」而言,你是否可能看到 Range 走到淨現金部位?答案是可以。前提是商品價格處於強勢窗口期。如果價格上行超過中周期定價、現金流高於你在周期性產業中通常會預期的水準,那麼你可以、也應該預期我們可能會更偏向累積一些「乾火藥」,因為在那樣的窗口期我會預期股價會顯著跑贏;而在回檔、回到中周期甚至下行周期時,你可能會看到 100%。

  • You could see far more than 100% of cash flow. I mean let's put that in perspective. I mean, to use just -- or if possible, $1 billion in debt is less than a turn of leverage. I'm not suggesting we're going to relever. I'm just pointing out the amount of dry powder available in a down cycle if the stock prices pulling back, and we have continued resilient free cash flow and the balance sheet strength to do it.

    你甚至可能會看到遠高於 100% 的現金流回饋。我的意思是,讓我們把這放在脈絡中看。例如,10 億美元的負債不到一倍的槓桿。我不是在暗示我們會重新加槓桿。我只是指出,在下行周期、若股價回落,而我們仍有具韌性的自由現金流與足夠強健的資產負債表時,可動用的「乾火藥」規模。

  • There are periods of time, and this is just art of the possible where you could easily buy back 10%, 15%, 20% of the company in a relatively short period of time. So it's those disproportionate sized investments that generate long-term gains for the corporation. So we'll continue to execute, again, look for Range to seek to reduce share count year in and year out as a steady baseline, but to -- with greater balance sheet strength, look for larger, more impactful opportunities.

    有些時期——這同樣只是「可能性的藝術」——你可以在相對短的時間內輕易回購公司 10%、15%、20% 的股份。正是這些不成比例的大型投資,為公司帶來長期收益。因此我們會持續執行:再次強調,Range 會以逐年降低股數作為穩定的基準,但——在更強的資產負債表實力之下——也會尋找更大、更具影響力的機會。

  • Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

    Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then on the NGL premium, I know we've hit on this a little bit. But when you say you're taking the strip at the high end for the annual guidance, just wondering how straightforward of the calculation this is given your marketing contracts are, are there a fair amount of complexities involved in just taking the strip like freight rates? Or just if you could kind of talk a little bit about the other variables that we should keep in mind as we think about the rest of the year, just considering how much you outperformed in 1Q here?

    好的。很好。接著關於 NGL 溢價,我知道我們已稍微談到一些。但當你說在年度指引上採用區間高端的遠期曲線(strip),我想了解在你們的行銷合約架構下,這個計算到底有多直接?是否涉及不少複雜因素,例如運費(freight rates)?或者你能否談談,當我們思考今年剩餘時間時,還有哪些其他變數需要留意,特別是考量你們在第一季的超預期表現?

  • Laith Sando - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Laith Sando - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Yes. There's a number of different contracts that go into that, but we've got a good line of sight as to the markets that we're going to be selling to. So it's simply taking the forward strip in those various markets, whether it's FEI or whether it's ARA or whether it's Belvieu-based. We've got a good feel for that. Naturally, those forward markets are going to be backward dated.

    是的。其中涉及多種不同的合約,但我們對將要銷售的市場有很清晰的可視度。因此,做法就是直接採用各個市場的遠期曲線,不論是 FEI、ARA,或是以 Belvieu 為基準的市場。我們對此很有把握。當然,這些遠期市場通常會呈現逆價差(backwardation)。

  • So I think we would view that as a conservative way to look at guidance. But just given the volatility that there's been and the market in the near term, we felt like that was the right approach to take. And then like Dennis mentioned, on the low end, we were plus $1.25. That's in a world where Mont Belvieu prices improve for all the reasons that we've talked about today. So even in that lower end, we're looking at absolute prices that are higher than where we've been.

    所以我想我們會把這視為一種較保守的指引看法。但考量近期市場的波動性,我們認為這是正確的做法。另外,如 Dennis 提到的,在低端情境下我們是加 1.25 美元;那是在 Mont Belvieu 價格因我們今天談到的各種原因而改善的世界裡。因此即便在較低端,我們看的絕對價格也高於我們過去所處的水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Degner for his concluding remarks.

    謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話交回給 Degner 先生作結語。

  • Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Dennis Degner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on the call this morning and all of the thoughtful questions around our great results from the quarter. If you have any follow-up questions, please follow up with our Investor Relations team. They'll be happy to address any follow-up calls you may have. And then, of course, lastly, we look forward to seeing many of you on the road in the weeks and months ahead to visit more about the Range story and on our next call. Thank you.

    是的。感謝各位今天早上參與電話會議,也感謝大家就我們本季優異成果提出許多深思熟慮的問題。若你有任何後續問題,請與我們的投資人關係團隊聯繫。他們很樂意回覆你可能有的後續來電。當然最後,我們也期待在接下來幾週與幾個月的行程中,在路演上見到各位,進一步交流 Range 的故事,並在我們下一次電話會議再會。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。你現在可以掛線。