Rogers Corp (ROG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Rogers Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'll now turn the call over to your host, Mr. Steve Haymore, Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Haymore, you may begin.

午安.我叫凱文，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加羅傑斯公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。現在我將把電話轉給主持人投資者關係總監 Steve Haymore 先生。海莫爾先生，您可以開始了。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Rogers Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. The slides for today's call can be found on the Investors section of our website along with the news release that was issued earlier today.

大家下午好，歡迎參加羅傑斯公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的幻燈片以及今天早些時候發布的新聞稿可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到。

Please turn to Slide 2. Before we begin, I would like to note that statements in this conference call that are not strictly historical are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and should be considered as subject to the many uncertainties that exist in Rogers' operations and environment. These uncertainties include economic conditions, market demands and competitive factors. Such factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱投影片 2。在我們開始之前，我想指出，本次電話會議中並非嚴格歷史性的陳述屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，應被視為受羅傑斯的營運和環境中存在許多不確定性。這些不確定因素包括經濟狀況、市場需求和競爭因素。這些因素可能導致實際結果與今天所做的任何前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異。

Please turn to Slide 3. The discussions during this conference call will also reference certain financial measures that were not prepared in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. A reconciliation of those non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the slide deck for today's call.

請參閱投影片 3。本次電話會議期間的討論也將提及某些未依照美國公認會計原則制定的財務指標。這些非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標的調節表可以在今天電話會議的幻燈片中找到。

Turning to Slide 4. With me today is Colin Gouveia, President and CEO; Ram Mayampurath, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Larry Schmid, Senior Vice President of Global Operations and Supply Chain. I will now turn the call over to Colin.

轉向幻燈片 4。今天與我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Colin Gouveia； Ram Mayampurath，資深副總裁兼財務長；以及全球營運和供應鏈高級副總裁 Larry Schmid。我現在將把電話轉給科林。

Thanks, Steve. Good afternoon to everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'll begin with the headlines of our quarter, year and outlook on Slide 5. Overall, the macroeconomic headwinds we faced throughout the fiscal year persisted through the fourth quarter, prompting more pronounced destocking at our customers and contributing to broad market softness across our end markets. In particular, our sales in the general industrial and portable electronics segments significantly declined compared to the third quarter.

謝謝，史蒂夫。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我將首先介紹幻燈片5 中的季度、年度和展望的頭條新聞。總體而言，我們整個財年面臨的宏觀經濟逆風持續到第四季度，促使我們的客戶更加明顯地去庫存，並導致我們整個財年的廣泛市場疲軟。終端市場。特別是，我們在一般工業和便攜式電子產品領域的銷售額與第三季相比大幅下降。

Lower sales volumes more than offset the procurement cost savings we achieved in Q4. And as a result, gross margins and adjusted earnings fell below our expectations. The ongoing contraction in global manufacturing activity, which has persisted for more than a year in many countries, continues to have a meaningful impact on the general industrial market, which comprises much of our core business. We are not yet seeing sustainable signs of improvement in this market, but we believe we are near the bottom of this cycle and may begin to see some recovery midyear.

銷售下降遠遠抵消了我們在第四季度實現的採購成本節省。結果，毛利率和調整後收益低於我們的預期。全球製造業活動的持續收縮在許多國家持續了一年多，並繼續對構成我們大部分核心業務的一般工業市場產生重大影響。我們尚未看到該市場持續改善的跡象，但我們相信我們已接近本週期的底部，並可能在年中開始看到一些復甦。

While we anticipate the macro environment will remain challenging, Rogers continues to focus on variables within our control to position us to respond once demand improves. Our commitment to aggressively manage costs while simultaneously advancing our growth strategy is reflected in our full year 2023 results, which include gross margin improvement and solid free cash flow generation. We also secured significant design wins and brought on new team members to help execute our strategy. I'll speak more about our 2023 accomplishments and near-term priorities later in the call.

雖然我們預計宏觀環境仍將充滿挑戰，但羅傑斯將繼續關注我們控制範圍內的變量，以便我們能夠在需求改善時做出反應。我們積極管理成本並同時推進成長策略的承諾體現在我們 2023 年全年業績中，其中包括毛利率改善和穩定的自由現金流生成。我們也獲得了重大的設計勝利，並聘請了新的團隊成員來幫助執行我們的策略。我將在稍後的電話會議中詳細介紹我們 2023 年的成就和近期優先事項。

We also announced today that due to persistent challenges in the global manufacturing economy and the lack of near-term visibility in the EV market, the time line to reach our March 2023 Investor Day targets is being extended beyond 2025. We have not changed our view about what we can achieve, just the timing of when we achieve it. The longer time frame for recovery does not change our strategic objectives or confidence in the future.

我們今天也宣布，由於全球製造業經濟持續面臨挑戰，且電動車市場近期缺乏可見性，實現 2023 年 3 月投資者日目標的時間線將延長至 2025 年之後。我們的觀點並沒有改變關於我們能夠實現什麼，只是我們實現它的時間。更長的恢復時間不會改變我們的策略目標或對未來的信心。

Rogers is grounded in leading industry positions and relationships with our customers. As we manage this business for growth, profitability and success over the long and short term, we continue to invest, so we are positioned to capture opportunities when the market recovers. We believe the strength of our team, significant opportunities in our end markets and our differentiated technology will position us to achieve our goals.

羅傑斯擁有領先的行業地位以及與客戶的關係。當我們管理這項業務的長期和短期成長、獲利和成功時，我們會繼續投資，因此我們有能力在市場復甦時抓住機會。我們相信，我們團隊的實力、終端市場的重大機會以及我們的差異化技術將使我們能夠實現我們的目標。

Before providing more detail on our quarterly performance, I'd like to touch on some of our Restore accomplishments in 2023. Please turn to Slide 6. Our recent actions have helped fortify our business against the weaker macroeconomic environment, while at the same time, positioning us for long-term success. The first key objective we outlined was cost improvement. We took a series of actions in 2023 to adjust our cost structure to meet demand, strengthen our product portfolio and optimize our capacity footprint. We also executed on operational excellence initiatives, which lowered costs and helped us better serve customers. Larry Schmid, our SVP of Operations and Supply Chain, will speak more about our progress in these areas shortly.

在提供有關我們季度業績的更多詳細資訊之前，我想先談談我們在2023 年的一些恢復成就。請參閱幻燈片6。我們最近的行動有助於增強我們的業務，應對疲軟的宏觀經濟環境，同時，使我們取得長期成功。我們概述的第一個關鍵目標是成​​本改善。我們在 2023 年採取了一系列行動來調整成本結構以滿足需求、加強我們的產品組合併優化我們的產能佈局。我們還執行了卓越營運計劃，這降低了成本並幫助我們更好地服務客戶。我們的營運和供應鏈資深副總裁 Larry Schmid 將很快詳細介紹我們在這些領域的進展。

Executing on our cost improvement objectives and carefully managing adjusted operating expenses helped us make progress in our margin improvement journey in 2023. Our objective was to achieve 35% gross margins in the second half of 2023, which we hit in Q3, demonstrating what Rogers can achieve despite a tough environment. Lower sales volumes did lead to a decline in our gross margin in Q4. However, we saw a meaningful full year 2023 gross margin improvement. These actions to improve our cost structure are sustainable and will help drive an increase in gross margin as sales return to more normalized levels.

執行我們的成本改進目標並仔細管理調整後的營運費用幫助我們在2023 年的利潤率改善之旅中取得了進展。我們的目標是在2023 年下半年實現35% 的毛利率，這是我們在第三季實現的，這證明了羅傑斯可以做到什麼儘管環境艱苦，仍取得了成就。銷量下降確實導致我們第四季的毛利率下降。然而，我們看到 2023 年全年毛利率顯著改善。這些改善成本結構的行動是可持續的，隨著銷售恢復到更正常化的水平，將有助於推動毛利率的提高。

Next, we bolstered the organization with new leadership in R&D, operations, supply chain, legal, human resources and business development. We now have the right skill sets in place to execute on our short- and long-term goals as we move forward.

接下來，我們在研發、營運、供應鏈、法律、人力資源和業務發展方面任命了新的領導層，以加強該組織。我們現在擁有正確的技能組合，可以在前進的過程中執行我們的短期和長期目標。

Lastly, we secured important design wins in our key end markets. We selectively invested in new capacity and we paid down $185 million on our revolving debt facility. With an even stronger balance sheet entering 2024, we will be able to continue to fund both organic and inorganic growth.

最後，我們在關鍵終端市場獲得了重要的設計勝利。我們有選擇地投資新產能，並支付了 1.85 億美元的循環債務融資。進入 2024 年，隨著資產負債表更加強勁，我們將能夠繼續為有機成長和無機成長提供資金。

I'll now turn it over to Larry to discuss our progress on operations.

我現在將把它交給拉里討論我們的營運進度。

Thanks, Colin. Turning to Slide 7, I'll discuss how we delivered on the 2023 operations objectives that we outlined at last year's Investor Day. And more importantly, the many ongoing operational and supply chain excellence initiatives that we continue to pursue. I'll begin with our most important resource, our dedicated and talented employees. I'm very pleased with the great progress we made over the course of the year, bringing on highly experienced talent from top-tier multinational organizations. Through a targeted hiring process, we filled key global leadership positions in safety, procurement, supply chain and technical operations. Simultaneously, we fortified our safety management processes and systems. The safety culture at Rogers has always been a strength, and we remain focused on driving our performance towards best in class.

謝謝，科林。轉向投影片 7，我將討論我們如何實現我們在去年投資者日概述的 2023 年營運目標。更重要的是，我們繼續追求許多正在進行的營運和供應鏈卓越計劃。我將從我們最重要的資源開始，即我們敬業且才華橫溢的員工。我對我們在這一年中取得的巨大進步感到非常高興，我們從頂級跨國組織引進了經驗豐富的人才。透過有針對性的招募流程，我們填補了安全、採購、供應鏈和技術營運的關鍵全球領導職位。同時，我們強化了安全管理流程和系統。羅傑斯的安全文化一直是我們的優勢，我們始終致力於將我們的表現推向一流。

Second, as Colin touched on, we made substantial progress with our operational excellence initiatives in 2023. For example, we delivered significant manufacturing and procurement cost savings by implementing new sourcing strategies focused on optimizing both direct and indirect spending. Additionally, we continue to drive year-over-year manufacturing efficiencies and productivity improvements to lower structural costs. We also improved on on-time delivery performance to customers and drove improvements in our integrated business planning process. Looking ahead, we are still working aggressively to drive further supplier diversification and deliver additional savings in manufacturing spend. Likewise, we will continue to pursue improvements in yields, asset utilization, maintenance and reliability costs and energy usage.

其次，正如 Colin 所說，我們在 2023 年的卓越營運計劃方面取得了實質進展。例如，我們透過實施專注於優化直接和間接支出的新採購策略，顯著節省了製造和採購成本。此外，我們繼續逐年推動製造效率和生產力的提高，以降低結構成本。我們也提高了向客戶按時交付的績效，並推動了綜合業務規劃流程的改進。展望未來，我們仍在積極努力推動供應商進一步多元化，並進一步節省製造支出。同樣，我們將繼續追求產量、資產利用率、維護和可靠性成本以及能源使用方面的改善。

Lastly, the operations team achieved a nearly 10% capacity utilization improvement in our curamik operation, our fastest-growing business last year. With strong demand in our curamik business, we also began deploying new capacity in China. This work is continuing at full speed in 2024, and we look to begin commissioning an internal qualification activities later this year with mass production expected to begin no later than mid-2025, of course, subject to overall market conditions and customer approvals. As always, we will also continue to implement other yield capacity and quality improvements this year to help support customers and the growth of our businesses.

最後，營運團隊將我們去年成長最快的業務 curamik 業務的產能利用率提高了近 10%。由於我們的 curamik 業務需求強勁，我們也開始在中國部署新產能。這項工作將於 2024 年全速進行，我們希望在今年稍後開始調試內部資格認證活動，預計不遲於 2025 年中期開始大規模生產，當然，這取決於整體市場狀況和客戶批准。與往常一樣，今年我們也將繼續實施其他產能和品質改進，以幫助支援客戶和我們業務的成長。

With that, I'll now pass it back to Colin.

現在我將把它傳回給科林。

Thanks, Larry. Turning to Slide 8, I'll next touch on our fourth quarter results. Sales of $205 million declined approximately 11% from the prior quarter and were below the low end of our guidance, due to lower-than-anticipated industrial and portable electronics sales. In reviewing the end market sales results, I will start with the EV/HEV segment, our significant growth category.

謝謝，拉里。轉向投影片 8，接下來我將介紹我們第四季的業績。由於工業和便攜式電子產品銷售額低於預期，銷售額為 2.05 億美元，較上一季下降約 11%，低於我們指導的下限。在回顧終端市場銷售結果時，我將從電動車/混合動力汽車細分市場開始，這是我們重要的成長類別。

Q4 EV/HEV sales improved at a double-digit rate versus the prior quarter, led by our power substrate products. Demand for EMS EV/HEV battery products also improved. For the full year, EV/HEV sales declined mid-single digits. We had very strong growth in our power substrate technology where the growing demand for silicon carbide power modules and EVs and HEVs continues to drive demand for our products. This sales increase was more than offset by much lower power interconnect sales, which declined in 2023 as certain customers work through higher inventory levels ordered in 2022.

在我們的電源基板產品的帶動下，第四季度電動車/混合動力車的銷售額較上一季以兩位數的速度成長。對EMS EV/HEV電池產品的需求也有所改善。全年電動車/混合動力車銷量下降了中個位數。我們的功率基板技術取得了非常強勁的成長，對碳化矽功率模組以及電動車和混合動力車不斷增長的需求繼續推動對我們產品的需求。這一銷售額的成長被功率互連銷售額大幅下降所抵消，由於某些客戶在 2022 年訂購的庫存水準較高，2023 年功率互連銷售額有所下降。

In our high-growth markets, portable electronics sales declined meaningfully versus the prior quarter due to normal seasonality and weaker demand from certain key OEMs. This ended the year where the global smartphone market declined sharply. We anticipate some improvement in 2024 depending on consumer traction with new models that will be introduced later this year. Sales in the aerospace and defense market declined versus the prior quarter. Commercial aerospace demand was lower following a very strong Q3 and defense demand declined, primarily related to program timing.

在我們的高成長市場中，由於正常的季節性和某些主要原始設備製造商的需求疲軟，便攜式電子產品銷售額較上一季大幅下降。全球智慧型手機市場急劇下滑的這一年結束了。我們預計 2024 年會出現一些改善，具體取決於消費者對今年稍後推出的新車型的吸引力。航空航太和國防市場的銷售額較上一季下降。在第三季度非常強勁之後，商業航空航天需求下降，國防需求下降，這主要與專案時間表有關。

Full year sales also declined, but we expect this will be a key growth market going forward. We saw good full year growth in both the ADAS and renewable energy markets. The growth in renewable energy was led by demand for our advanced power substrates. In our core markets, we saw a sequential double-digit decline in industrial sales. Full year industrial sales were also significantly lower versus 2022. As we've highlighted, the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity in the U.S. and EU, combined with a weak post-COVID recovery in China, created a strong headwind in this market last year.

全年銷售額也有所下降，但我們預計這將是未來的關鍵成長市場。我們看到 ADAS 和再生能源市場全年都有良好的成長。再生能源的成長是由對我們先進電力基板的需求所帶動的。在我們的核心市場，我們看到工業銷售額連續兩位數下降。全年工業銷售也較 2022 年大幅下降。正如我們所強調的，美國和歐盟製造業活動持續收縮，加上中國疫情後復甦疲軟，去年為該市場帶來了強勁阻力。

Lastly, we secured sizable design wins in our AES and EMS business this past quarter. Our curamik advanced substrate technology was designed in by a major power module supplier and will be utilized in this customer's high-performance 800-volt silicon carbide power module platform. In our ROLINX business, we secured a design win for our power interconnects in a major renewable energy project. We also secured an important design win in our EMS business with a leading medical device manufacturer. Rogers was selected based on the performance of our advanced materials and our highly customized solution design.

最後，上個季度我們在 AES 和 EMS 業務中獲得了相當大的設計勝利。我們的 curamik 先進基板技術由主要功率模組供應商設計，將用於該客戶的高性能 800 伏特碳化矽功率模組平台。在 ROLINX 業務中，我們在一個大型再生能源專案中贏得了電源互連的設計。我們還在 EMS 業務中贏得了一家領先的醫療設備製造商的重要設計勝利。選擇羅傑斯是基於我們先進材料的性能和高度客製化的解決方案設計。

Now I'll turn it over to Ram to discuss our Q4 financial performance and Q1 outlook.

現在我將把它交給拉姆討論我們第四季的財務表現和第一季的前景。

Thanks, Colin. I will begin on Slide 9 by reviewing our full year results before discussing Q4 in more detail. As Colin and Larry highlighted, we have made good progress in many areas in 2023, including improving our cost structure and driving free cash flow even as macro conditions were challenging. Full year sales were $908 million, a decrease of 6.5% from the prior year.

謝謝，科林。我將從投影片 9 開始回顧我們的全年業績，然後再更詳細地討論第四季。正如 Colin 和 Larry 所強調的，2023 年我們在許多領域都取得了良好進展，包括改善成本結構和推動自由現金流，儘管宏觀條件充滿挑戰。全年銷售額為 9.08 億美元，較上年下降 6.5%。

Gross margins increased by approximately 75 basis points to 33.8%. The improvement in gross margin on meaningfully lower sales volume highlights the structural cost reductions made last year. We also contained 2023 operating expenses and lowered our overall SG&A spend dollars versus 2022. With the improvement in gross margin and by flexing OpEx lower, we partially offset the impact from drop in sales volumes.

毛利率成長約 75 個基點至 33.8%。銷量大幅下降帶來的毛利率改善凸顯了去年結構性成本的削減。與 2022 年相比，我們還控制了 2023 年的營運支出，並降低了整體 SG&A 支出。隨著毛利率的提高和營運支出的降低，我們部分抵消了銷售下降的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA margins was 16.3% in 2023 and roughly in line with the prior year. For the full year, adjusted EPS was $3.78 compared to $4.91 in 2022.

2023 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 16.3%，與前一年大致持平。全年調整後每股收益為 3.78 美元，而 2022 年為 4.91 美元。

On Slide 10, I'll discuss our Q4 sales results in more detail. Net sales of $205 million declined 11% versus the prior quarter, due to lower volume of approximately $23 million and unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations of close to $2 million. On a reportable segment basis, AES revenue decreased from the prior quarter by 7.2% or $117 million. Sales decreased in aerospace and defense, industrial and renewable energy markets. This was partially offset by higher EV/HEV sales and a slight increase in ADAS. EMS revenue decreased by 14.9% to $83 million, resulting from lower portable electronics and general industrial sales. These declines offset improvement in EV/HEV sales.

在投影片 10 上，我將更詳細地討論我們第四季的銷售業績。淨銷售額為 2.05 億美元，較上一季下降 11%，原因是銷量減少約 2,300 萬美元，且不利的外匯波動接近 200 萬美元。以可報告部門計算，AES 營收較上一季下降 7.2%，即 1.17 億美元。航空航太和國防、工業和再生能源市場的銷售下降。這被電動車/混合動力車銷量的增加和 ADAS 的小幅成長所部分抵消。由於便攜式電子產品和一般工業銷售額下降，EMS 收入下降 14.9% 至 8,300 萬美元。這些下降抵消了電動車/混合動力汽車銷量的成長。

Turning to Slide 11, our gross margin for the fourth quarter was $67 million or 32.9%, which declined from 35.1% in Q3. The decrease in gross margin was mainly a result of lower sales volumes and under-absorbed production costs. These demand-related headwinds reduced gross margin by approximately 350 basis points from the prior quarter. This reduction was partially offset by approximately 150 basis points of procurement savings and other manufacturing efficiencies in Q4. Although we are seeing some impact to gross margin from our current factory staffing levels, we intend to carry these costs through Q1 in anticipation of improved demand by midyear.

轉向投影片 11，我們第四季的毛利率為 6700 萬美元，即 32.9%，比第三季的 35.1% 有所下降。毛利率下降主要是因為銷售下降和生產成本吸收不足所致。這些與需求相關的不利因素使毛利率較上一季下降了約 350 個基點。這一下降被第四季度約 150 個基點的採購節省和其他製造效率所部分抵消。儘管我們看到目前工廠人員配置水準對毛利率產生了一些影響，但我們打算將這些成本承擔到第一季度，因為預計到年中需求會有所改善。

Q4 adjusted income decreased $11 million versus $23 million in Q3. Q4 adjusted earnings per share was $0.60 compared to $1.24 in the prior quarter. The sequential decrease in Q4 adjusted net income resulted mainly from lower gross margin and higher adjusted operating expenses, which was partially offset by lower tax expenses. Adjusted operating expenses were higher in the quarter, mainly due to increase in R&D costs and G&A professional services to support key strategic initiatives. Adjusted operating income does not include an insurance recovery of approximately $24 million received in the fourth quarter in connection with the fire that occurred at our UTIS factory in 2021. This recovery is reflected in our GAAP net income of $23 million and GAAP EPS of $1.24.

第四季調整後營收減少了 1,100 萬美元，而第三季調整後營收為 2,300 萬美元。第四季調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元，而上一季為 1.24 美元。第四季調整後淨利環比下降主要是由於毛利率下降和調整後營運費用增加，但稅收費用減少部分抵消了這一影響。本季調整後營運費用較高，主要是由於支援關鍵策略措施的研發成本和一般管理專業服務的增加。調整後的營業收入不包括第四季度因2021 年UTIS 工廠發生的火災而收到的約2400 萬美元的保險賠償。這一恢復反映在我們2300 萬美元的GAAP 淨利潤和1.24 美元的GAAP 每股收益中。

Continuing to Slide 12. Ending cash at December 31 was approximately $132 million, a decrease of $104 million from the end of 2022, and a $5 million increase from the end of Q3 2023. We generated strong operating cash flow of $72 million in Q4 and $131 million for the full year. This enabled us to invest in capital to support our organic growth initiatives and make discretionary repayment of $185 million on our revolving credit facility. Capital expenditures were $23 million in the quarter and $57 million for the year.

繼續投影片12。截至12 月31 日的期末現金約為1.32 億美元，比2022 年底減少1.04 億美元，比2023 年第三季末增加500 萬美元。第四季和第四季我們產生了7200萬美元的強勁營運現金流，全年1.31億美元。這使我們能夠投資資本來支持我們的有機成長計劃，並酌情償還我們的循環信貸額度 1.85 億美元。本季資本支出為 2,300 萬美元，全年資本支出為 5,700 萬美元。

We dedicated considerable effort in 2023 to improve gross margin and manage working capital, which further strengthened our balance sheet. We are well positioned to execute on our capital allocation priorities, primarily driving organic growth as well as managing debt, strategically investing in synergistic M&A and returning capital to shareholders.

2023 年，我們投入了大量精力來提高毛利率和管理營運資金，這進一步增強了我們的資產負債表。我們有能力執行我們的資本配置優先事項，主要是推動有機成長以及管理債務、策略性投資於協同併購以及向股東返還資本。

Next, on Slide 13, I will discuss our guidance for the first quarter of 2024. Net sales are expected to range between $205 million and $215 million. The midpoint of this range is slightly higher than Q4 as RF solutions demand is forecasted to be stronger in Q1. We are guiding gross margin to be in the range of 32% to 33% for Q1. The 32.5% midpoint of our guidance is lower than our Q4 results due primarily to changes in product mix. As mentioned, our guidance also reflects costs that we are carrying in anticipation of a top line recovery.

接下來，在投影片 13 上，我將討論我們對 2024 年第一季的指引。淨銷售額預計在 2.05 億美元到 2.15 億美元之間。該範圍的中點略高於第四季度，因為預計第一季射頻解決方案需求將更加強勁。我們預計第一季毛利率在 32% 至 33% 之間。我們的指導中位數 32.5% 低於我們第四季的業績，這主要是由於產品結構的變化。如前所述，我們的指導也反映了我們因預期營收復甦而承受的成本。

In addition to the capacity expansion investments, we will incur additional operating expenses this year to capitalize on our growth opportunities. Start-up costs are projected to be between $1 million and $2 million in Q1 and will continue for the remainder of the year. Depending on how demand levels evolve, these start-up costs may be adjusted.

除了產能擴張投資外，我們今年還將產生額外的營運費用，以利用我們的成長機會。第一季的啟動成本預計在 100 萬至 200 萬美元之間，並將持續到今年剩餘時間。根據需求水準的變化，這些啟動成本可能會進行調整。

Earnings per share is expected to range from $0.30 to $0.50 and adjusted EPS from $0.45 to $0.65. We project our full year tax rate to be around 25%. Finally, based on our current view, we anticipate Q1 guidance to be the low point of sales in 2024. We also anticipate that the second half of the year will be stronger than the first half.

預計每股收益為 0.30 美元至 0.50 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.45 美元至 0.65 美元。我們預計全年稅率約為 25%。最後，根據我們目前的觀點，我們預計第一季指引將是 2024 年的銷售低點。我們也預計下半年將強於上半年。

I will now pass the call back to Colin to discuss our multiyear financial targets.

我現在將把電話轉給科林，討論我們的多年財務目標。

Thanks, Ram. Turning to Slide 14, following some significant changes in the external environment for 2023. We are extending the time line to achieve our Investor Day financial targets to beyond 2025. This decision is a result of several compounding factors across various markets that have affected our business over the last year. The first and most impactful factor is the slower-than-expected recovery in the global manufacturing industry. As reflected in our Q4 '23 results and our Q1 '24 outlook, the continuing contraction of the manufacturing economy meaningfully reduce sales in our general industrial and other core markets. These challenges have been broad-based, including in the U.S., Europe and China. We believe we may begin to see some recovery in industrial markets in the second half of 2024, but there is much uncertainty around the timing of a recovery.

謝謝，拉姆。轉向投影片 14，繼 2023 年外部環境發生一些重大變化之後。我們將實現投資者日財務目標的時間線延長至 2025 年之後。這項決定是各個市場中影響我們業務的多個複合因素的結果在過去的一年裡。第一個也是影響最大的因素是全球製造業復甦慢於預期。正如我們 23 年第 4 季業績和 24 年第 1 季展望所反映的那樣，製造業經濟的持續收縮顯著減少了我們一般工業和其他核心市場的銷售額。這些挑戰具有廣泛的基礎，包括在美國、歐洲和中國。我們認為，2024 年下半年工業市場可能會開始出現一定程度的復甦，但復甦的時間存在很大的不確定性。

The next factor leading to this change is the lack of near-term visibility on electric vehicle growth. Since the middle of 2023, there have been a number of automakers that have announced changes to their EV production plans in response to the demand environment. Subsidies have also been reduced or removed for EVs, for example, in Germany. As a result, there is increased variability in the timing of when certain design wins and projects in our opportunity funnel will happen. To be clear, these recent events do not change our view of the long-term growth potential in the EV market, but it does create a lack of visibility at the present time.

導致這項變化的下一個因素是缺乏近期電動車成長的可見性。自2023年中期以來，已有多家汽車製造商宣布調整電動車生產計劃，以應對需求環境。例如，在德國，電動車的補貼也被減少或取消。因此，某些設計獲勝和我們的機會漏斗中的項目發生的時間的可變性增加。需要明確的是，最近發生的這些事件並沒有改變我們對電動車市場長期成長潛力的看法，但它確實造成了目前缺乏可見性。

Third, we are revising our growth rate in certain markets that are facing different challenges. In the portable electronics market, we are projecting some recovery in 2024, following the significant market declines in 2023. However, the medium-term outlook remains muted as the premium segment of the market, where we primarily participate, is forecasted to grow at a lower rate as consumers keep existing phones longer. In the wireless infrastructure market, we expect sales to decline going forward, given the weaker-than-anticipated 5G base station rollout in many regions.

第三，我們正在調整某些面臨不同挑戰的市場的成長率。在便攜式電子產品市場，繼 2023 年市場大幅下滑之後，我們預計 2024 年將出現一定程度的復甦。然而，中期前景仍然黯淡，因為我們主要參與的高端市場預計將以隨著消費者保留現有手機的時間較長，費率會降低。在無線基礎設施市場，鑑於許多地區 5G 基地台的推出低於預期，我們預計未來銷售額將下降。

Before moving on to more specifics regarding our growth targets, I'd like to reiterate that we will be firmly committed to our strategy that will position Rogers for sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value. The EV/HEV opportunity remains a significant long-term growth driver for our business and the global automotive industry in general. As leading OEMs work through the near-term challenges associated with this transition, Rogers is a value partner providing mission-critical material solutions for our customers. Overall, our technology and strong positions in our key markets remain differentiators for the company that will propel us forward, despite the present headwinds.

在詳細介紹我們的成長目標之前，我想重申，我們將堅定地致力於我們的策略，使羅傑斯能夠實現永續成長和長期股東價值。電動車/混合動力汽車機會仍然是我們業務和全球汽車產業的重要長期成長動力。隨著領先的原始設備製造商努力應對與這項轉型相關的近期挑戰，羅傑斯是為我們的客戶提供關鍵任務材料解決方案的價值合作夥伴。總體而言，儘管目前存在阻力，但我們的技術和在關鍵市場的強勢地位仍然是公司的差異化因素，將推動我們前進。

On Slide 15, we have provided the key assumptions and strategic initiatives that will help us reach our multiyear sales target of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. We are also providing growth rate expectations for our core high and significant markets, although these are directional in nature given the current level of uncertainty.

在投影片 15 中，我們提供了關鍵假設和策略舉措，將幫助我們實現 12 億至 13 億美元的多年銷售目標。我們也為我們的核心高端和重要市場提供成長率預期，儘管鑑於當前的不確定性水平，這些預期本質上是方向性的。

Starting with our significant growth markets, we continue to believe that our significant growth market comprised of EV/HEV will be the strongest contributor to reaching our sales target. We project this market will increase at a CAGR in the high teens or possibly stronger depending on EV demand levels. This growth is expected to be led by our curamik power substrate business, which grew rapidly in 2023 and where we have the greatest visibility to customer demand. The first phase of our new curamik facility is anticipated to be a major contributor to this growth.

從我們顯著成長的市場開始，我們仍然相信，由電動車/混合動力車組成的顯著成長市場將是實現我們銷售目標的最強貢獻者。我們預計該市場將以十幾歲的複合年增長率成長，或者可能更強，具體取決於電動車的需求水準。這一成長預計將由我們的 curamik 功率基板業務引領，該業務在 2023 年快速成長，並且我們對客戶需求有最大的了解。我們的新 curamik 工廠的第一階段預計將成為這一成長的主要貢獻者。

We are planning for commercial production to begin in 2025 with a full production run rate in 2026. The growth outlook for silicon carbide in EVs and HEVs remains very strong, and our power substrate solutions are integral to enabling that growth. We also anticipate that some of our significant EMS EV battery design wins will begin to ramp in the 2025 to 2026 time frame. The timing is later than expected at this time last year and has changed due to specific OEM manufacturing challenges and softer demand leading to production delays. We are on the print in these important programs, and we expect this will be a strong growth opportunity for us as production increases over the coming years.

我們計劃於 2025 年開始商業生產，並於 2026 年實現全面生產。碳化矽在電動車和混合動力車中的成長前景仍然非常強勁，而我們的功率基板解決方案對於實現這一增長至關重要。我們也預計，我們在 EMS EV 電池設計中取得的一些重大成果將在 2025 年至 2026 年期間開始增加。這一時間比去年的預期要晚，並且由於特定的 OEM 製造挑戰和需求疲軟導致生產延遲而發生了變化。我們正在印刷這些重要的計劃，我們預計隨著未來幾年產量的增加，這對我們來說將是一個強勁的成長機會。

In our ROLINX business, we are opening a new facility in Mexico, that will manufacture our advanced busbar technology, primarily for the EV/HEV and renewable energy markets. This targeted investment continues our regional footprint strategy and will enable us to better serve our customers in North America. Importantly, this projected growth in EV will not be linear, given the timing of our new capacity additions and likely fluctuations in market demand.

在 ROLINX 業務中，我們將在墨西哥開設一家新工廠，該工廠將生產我們先進的母線技術，主要針對 EV/HEV 和再生能源市場。這項有針對性的投資延續了我們的區域足跡策略，並使我們能夠更好地為北美客戶提供服務。重要的是，考慮到我們新增產能的時間以及市場需求可能的波動，電動車的預期成長將不是線性的。

Turning to our high-growth markets. We are planning for these markets to grow at a mid-single-digit range over the next few years. This is lower than our previous assumption due to the challenges discussed in the portable electronics markets, a more measured view of global economic growth in the coming years and the likelihood that these markets will not grow as quickly. We expect aerospace and defense and renewable energy to provide the strongest growth.

轉向我們的高成長市場。我們計劃在未來幾年內使這些市場以中等個位數的速度成長。由於便攜式電子市場所討論的挑戰、對未來幾年全球經濟成長的更加謹慎的看法以及這些市場成長速度可能不會那麼快的可能性，這低於我們先前的假設。我們預計航空航太、國防和再生能源將提供最強勁的成長。

The outlook for A&D is based on both specific defense programs utilizing advanced radar technologies and the substantial backlogs in commercial aerospace production. The outlook for new solar and wind deployments remains strong, and we expect growth with both our power substrate and power interconnect solutions. And in our core markets, we anticipate growth in the low single-digit range. This reflects both the weaker near-term demand in general industrial and consumer markets and our expectation for a gradual recovery. The outlook for a decline in the wireless infrastructure market is also contributing to the lower growth rate.

A&D 的前景是基於利用先進雷達技術的具體國防計劃和商業航空航天生產的大量積壓訂單。新的太陽能和風能部署前景仍然強勁，我們預計我們的電源基板和電源互連解決方案都會實現成長。在我們的核心市場，我們預期成長將在低個位數範圍內。這不僅反映了一般工業和消費市場近期需求的疲軟，也反映了我們對逐步復甦的預期。無線基礎設施市場的下滑前景也是導致成長率下降的原因之一。

Finally, while our targets are based on organic growth assumptions, synergistic M&A will remain a key part of our strategy. As always, it will be subject to timing as we follow our disciplined process to identify the right opportunities to be transacted within targeted financial parameters.

最後，雖然我們的目標是基於有機成長假設，但協同併購仍將是我們策略的關鍵部分。像往常一樣，這將取決於時間安排，因為我們遵循嚴格的流程，以確定在目標財務參數內進行交易的正確機會。

In summary, we have a very clear strategy to achieve these financial targets. Based on the visibility of design win ramps and supporting capacity investments, we expect growth over the next few years. However, the current market uncertainty makes it challenging to predict timing and the exact rate of growth. For this reason, we are not currently able to specify at one point in the next few years, we are likely to reach these targets.

總之，我們有一個非常明確的策略來實現這些財務目標。根據設計獲勝坡道和支持產能投資的可見性，我們預計未來幾年將出現成長。然而，當前市場的不確定性使得預測時間和確切的成長率具有挑戰性。因此，我們目前無法確定在未來幾年內我們有可能實現這些目標。

As we wrap up our prepared remarks, let me reiterate today's key messages. First, we made great progress in 2023, making structural changes to our cost structure, improving cash flow and shoring up the organization. We are also making the necessary investments in capacity and organizational capabilities to grow as these significant market headwinds ease. We have great confidence in our technology, our innovation capabilities and the talented employees at Rogers as we work to deliver on our financial targets.

在我們結束準備好的演講時，讓我重申今天的關鍵訊息。首先，我們在 2023 年取得了巨大進展，對成本結構進行了結構性改變，改善了現金流並支持了組織。隨著這些重大市場阻力的緩解，我們也正在產能和組織能力方面進行必要的投資，以實現成長。在我們努力實現財務目標的過程中，我們對羅傑斯的技術、創新能力和才華橫溢的員工充滿信心。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

現在，我將把電話轉回給接線員詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Craig Ellis from B. Riley Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley 證券公司的 Craig Ellis。

In a tough environment, congratulations on the company controllable progress. So I wanted to start with a question around a comment that I think you made, Ram, when you were talking about the first quarter. I think you said you expect the first quarter to be the low point for the year. Can you identify some of the things that give you conviction that it would be a low point and touch on what, from a demand standpoint, leaves you with that confidence and how you are seeing and thinking about downstream inventories and their levels as you think about the ability to grow up 1Q?

在嚴峻的環境下，祝賀公司取得可控進展。所以我想從一個圍繞著我認為你在談論第一季時發表的評論的問題開始。我想你說過你預計第一季將是今年的最低點。您能否找出一些讓您確信這將是低點的因素，並從需求的角度談談是什麼讓您有信心，以及您如何看待和思考下游庫存及其水平1Q成長的能力？

Sure. Craig, talking about the cost improvements and the margin traction we have had in the first 3 quarters, those improvements are permanent. And this cost reductions we have made are here to stay. So as we have said before, we're focused a lot on correcting the cost structure of the company, both in COGS and in OpEx. And as we see the top line recover, we hope to see much more improvement in the bottom line.

當然。克雷格談到我們前三個季度的成本改善和利潤率成長，這些改善是永久性的。我們所做的成本削減將持續下去。正如我們之前所說，我們非常注重糾正公司的成本結構，包括銷貨成本和營運支出。當我們看到營收恢復時，我們希望看到淨利潤有更多改善。

Now talking about the top line, in particular, that's where that drives most of our results, as you know, and I'll start and I'll pass it on to Colin. If you look at our second half from what we are hearing from our customers and specifically with regard to the burning of the inventories in the channel and timing of when some of the new orders and recovery of the ordering patterns would start, that signals that the second half is likely to be better than the first half.

現在特別談談營收，正如你所知，這就是推動我們大部分結果的地方，我將開始並將其傳遞給科林。如果你從我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況來看我們的下半年，特別是關於渠道中庫存的燃燒以及一些新訂單的開始時間和訂購模式的恢復，這表明下半年可能會比上半年更好。

In general, seasonality, as you know, picks up better in the second half of the year as we start seeing the Poron ramp-up and the PE activity before the holiday build.

總體而言，如您所知，季節性因素在下半年會有所好轉，因為我們開始看到 Poron 的增長和假期前的 PE 活動。

And then finally, the design-in wins converting to orders also signals that the second half will be better than our first half. So those are the 3 main indicators that signal that Q1 will be the low point -- Q1 guidance will be the low point of the year, and we think the second half will be better than the first half. Colin?

最後，設計勝利轉化為訂單也表明下半年將比上半年更好。因此，這三個主要指標顯示第一季將是低點——第一季指引將是今年的低點，我們認為下半年會比上半年好。科林？

Yes, Craig, I'll add some more color to that. I think I wanted to talk about the inventory piece first. So we have been talking about that for quite a while. And I think the story really starts back in 2021. So back then, we were in the COVID snapback, and it was a real struggle for a lot of companies to get raw materials and people could not produce what they wanted to produce or needed to produce for their customers. So we certainly had a large backlog as the snapback came in full force. And we -- our backlog decreased a lot -- or increased a lot.

是的，克雷格，我會為此添加更多色彩。我想我想先談談庫存部分。所以我們已經討論這個問題有一段時間了。我認為這個故事真正要從 2021 年開始。當時，我們正處於新冠疫情快速恢復期，許多公司在獲取原材料方面遇到了真正的困難，人們無法生產他們想要生產或需要的產品。為他們的客戶生產。因此，隨著快速恢復的全面實施，我們肯定有大量積壓。我們的積壓工作減少了很多，或者增加了很多。

As we got into 2022, our backlogs decreased. We were able to supply and we saw companies really order a lot of inventory. They really mostly maxed and fill things out based on the fact for the past 2 years they hadn't been able to get inventory. And then as we have come into 2023, we found that there was a significant inventory hangover. We saw in several different key customers where they ordered quite a lot of inventory in '22, anticipating to build a certain amount of vehicles in '22 and '23, and they built half the vehicles they thought and their inventory lasted for 24 months or longer. And there's still some carryover into 2024. When we've hit this particular topic, particularly hard with our end customers and our customers' customers, the consensus we're hearing is that the inventory hangover from the COVID snapback and then the actions taken when companies could supply again will run out and come to normal levels around the middle of the year. There could be some puts and takes in terms of what month it happens, but that has been a general consensus. So that just builds on a little bit with what Ram said.

進入 2022 年，我們的積壓訂單減少了。我們能夠供應，而且我們看到公司確實訂購了大量庫存。他們實際上大多是根據過去兩年無法獲得庫存的事實來最大化和填寫內容的。進入 2023 年，我們發現庫存嚴重落後。我們在幾個不同的關鍵客戶中看到，他們在22 年訂購了相當多的庫存，預計在22 和23 年製造一定數量的車輛，他們製造了他們想像的一半的車輛，並且他們的庫存持續了24 個月或更長。到2024 年仍有一些影響。當我們討論這個特定主題時，特別是與我們的最終客戶和客戶的客戶進行討論時，我們聽到的共識是，新冠病毒(COVID-19) 帶來的庫存後遺症會迅速恢復，然後我們採取的行動企業可能再次供應的產品將在年中左右耗盡並恢復到正常水平。就具體發生的月份而言，可能會有一些不同的看法，但這是一個普遍的共識。所以這只是建立在拉姆所說的基礎上。

The other thing is China has not... okay, I can stop.

另一件事是中國還沒有……好吧，我可以停下來了。

Go ahead. No, go ahead and finish the point, yes.

前進。不，繼續說完這一點，是的。

Finally, the China issue. China really has not come back from when they changed their Zero COVID policy and released everybody back into the workforce. There was an attempt at a bit of a stimulus in China in the second half of last year. And talking to folks in China and having just traveled there, they feel like it will still be a few more months for that to hit. And so we also see that as a factor to help improve things from an economic perspective in the second half of the year.

最後是中國問題。中國確實還沒有從改變「零新冠」政策、讓所有人重返勞動市場的狀態中恢復過來。去年下半年，中國曾嘗試採取一些刺激措施。與剛去過那裡的中國人交談後，他們覺得還需要幾個月的時間才能實現這一目標。因此，我們也認為這是從經濟角度來看下半年情況有所改善的因素。

There's no doubt that China has been a downside surprise every single quarter over the last 4 and materially so. I wanted to follow up on the inventory comment, Colin, and just stitch it together with a point that was made in the prepared remarks around some of the subsegment behavior. So we did see a rise in EV and HEV product sales in the fourth quarter. So are you sensing that inventory is much better positioned there than in some other areas, maybe more legacy ICE-based automotive applications or general industrial? Help me understand the rise in sales there versus some of the things you're seeing with just broadly excess of inventory?

毫無疑問，過去四個季度中國的每個季度都出現令人意外的下行趨勢，而且實質上也是如此。科林，我想跟進庫存評論，並將其與圍繞某些子細分行為準備好的評論中提出的觀點縫合在一起。因此，我們確實看到第四季度電動車和混合動力汽車產品銷量有所成長。那麼，您是否感覺到那裡的庫存比其他一些領域（可能是更多傳統的基於 ICE 的汽車應用或一般工業）要好得多？幫助我了解那裡的銷售額成長情況與您所看到的庫存普遍過剩的情況相比？

I think we did -- I mean, EV/HEV did have a good year in general. I think they were up 31% year-over-year -- for curamik and some other of our product lines. But -- and that was the whole market as a matter of fact. But what I would say is its OEM dependent. So we have some programs with OEMs where we know their inventory is in good shape. We have others where things are still a bit backed up, and it will be a case-by-case basis. And then I think the inventories also exist a bit in our general industrial space where we had a lot of different end markets in that core business order more than they have turned out to need in 2023, but it does feel like with, as I mentioned, a lot of conversations and a lot of work in our [IBP] process that, that inventory will be normalizing somewhat in the middle of the year.

我認為我們做到了——我的意思是，電動車/混合動力車總體上確實度過了美好的一年。我認為 curamik 和我們其他一些產品線的銷量同比增長了 31%。但是——事實上這就是整個市場。但我想說的是它的 OEM 依賴性。因此，我們與原始設備製造商進行了一些計劃，我們知道他們的庫存狀況良好。我們還有其他一些事情仍然有一點支持，這將根據具體情況進行。然後我認為庫存也存在於我們的一般工業領域，我們在核心業務訂單中有很多不同的終端市場，超過了 2023 年的需求，但正如我所提到的，庫存確實存在在我們的[IBP] 流程中進行了大量的對話和大量的工作，庫存將在今年年中正常化。

If I could, just one more and since, Larry is on the call, I'll direct it to him. So Larry, nice to have you on board. You made a point about structural cost declines that were achieved last year, and it certainly seemed like that was visible in how gross margin played out through the year. The question is this, are you able to quantify how significant those were in 2023? And what should investors expect would be possible for all the initiatives that you have in place for 2024?

如果可以的話，再打一次，既然拉里正在打電話，我就把電話轉給他。拉里，很高興你加入。您提到了去年實現的結構性成本下降，這一點在全年毛利率的表現中顯然是顯而易見的。問題是，你能量化這些在 2023 年的重要性嗎？投資人對 2024 年採取的所有措施有何期待？

Yes. Thanks, Craig. Good to talk to you. I think that when you think about the year-over-year productivity improvements, you can look at 2024 being fairly similar with what we did in 2023. And just to drill a little bit more there, there's more work to do into 3 major buckets. So in the procurement space for direct and indirect, we've still got some more opportunities there that we continue to pursue. In the manufacturing space, there are about 4 or 5 different areas, not to get too lengthy into that, but we continue to also drive improvements. And then, of course, logistics will continue to play in that space as well. So similarly, the areas that we focused on in '23, we're going to continue to focus on. We're getting a little bit further into the heavy lifting now, but we see similar opportunities for '24.

是的。謝謝，克雷格。很高興和你說話。我認為，當你考慮逐年生產力的提高時，你可以看到 2024 年與我們在 2023 年所做的非常相似。只是為了更深入一點，在 3 個主要方面還有更多工作要做。因此，在直接和間接採購領域，我們仍有更多的機會值得我們繼續追求。在製造領域，大約有 4 或 5 個不同的領域，在此不再贅述，但我們仍在繼續推動改進。當然，物流也將繼續在該領域發揮作用。同樣，我們將繼續關注 23 年關注的領域。我們現在正在進一步進行繁重的工作，但我們在 24 世紀也看到了類似的機會。

And would they flow into the model gradually to the year, Larry? Or is there anything that would be more of a step function change in the 3 areas that you're really targeting? And if so, at what point in the year should we expect to see that?

拉里，它們會逐漸流入模型嗎？或者，在您真正瞄準的 3 個領域中，是否存在更多的階躍功能變化？如果是這樣，我們應該在一年中的什麼時候看到這一點？

So I can take that, Craig. The 3 areas of focus continue to remain the operational improvements, productivity in the plants, footprint consolidation, plant excellence, manufacturing excellence, procurement savings being #2 and improvements from design being #3. You've seen a lot of improvement from the first 2 activities so far. And in a full year run rate we saw close to 200 basis points of improvements in our margins, maybe in the turning to second half, third quarter, in particular. We expect some of that activities to Larry's point to continue in the future. So we will be making additional cost improvements. But the big step change will come from the top line coming back.

所以我可以接受，克雷格。三個重點領域仍是營運改善、工廠生產力、佔地面積整合、工廠卓越性、卓越製​​造、採購節約排名第二，設計改善排名第三。到目前為止，您已經看到前兩項活動有了很大的進步。從全年營運率來看，我們的利潤率提高了近 200 個基點，尤其是在下半年、第三季。我們預計拉里所說的一些活動將來會繼續下去。因此，我們將進行額外的成本改進。但最大的改變將來自營收的回歸。

So like we have said before, our path back to a 38% to 40% remains -- that remains our target. 70% of that from where we finished in Q3, for example, which is what we expect would have been in Q4 if we had similar top line will come from volume improvements and 30% from additional cost and productivity efficiency.

正如我們之前所說，我們回到 38% 至 40% 的道路仍然存在——這仍然是我們的目標。例如，如果我們有類似的營收，我們在第三季完成的業績中，70% 的收入將來自銷售的提高，而30% 的收入來自額外的成本和生產力效率，這就是我們預期的第四季度的收入。

Our next question is coming from [William Gildea] from CJS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 CJS 證券的 [William Gildea]。

This is Will Gildea for Dan Moore. Industrial tends to add less attention but still represents 30% of your total revenue. Could you talk about the pipeline of opportunities for new products or new business wins in that segment? And what is your confidence that we will return to GDP plus type growth over the next 12 to 24 months?

我是丹摩爾的威爾吉爾迪亞。工業業的關注度往往較低，但仍佔總收入的 30%。能談談該領域新產品或新業務的機會管道嗎？您對我們在未來 12 至 24 個月內恢復 GDP 正成長的信心有多大？

So I can take that. So the general industrial segment does have many end market segments where we've had good growth, and we just highlighted a key program win in this past call that came out of this segment in the medical area. When you think about general industrial for our business, it's medical, it's oil and gas, semiconductor, HVAC, construction, food production. And we continually feel very good about several of the design wins we've had with our existing technology and even with our newly acquired technology from Silicone Engineering. But overall, some of these markets still remain sluggish, such as wireless communication to keep that market from growing and having it maintain a flattish trajectory.

所以我可以接受。因此，一般工業領域確實有許多終端市場領域，我們在這些領域取得了良好的成長，我們剛剛在過去的電話會議中強調了醫療領域這一領域的一個關鍵項目勝利。當您想到我們業務的一般工業時，它是醫療、石油和天然氣、半導體、暖通空調、建築、食品生產。我們對利用現有技術甚至是新從 Silicone Engineering 獲得的技術所取得的幾項設計勝利感到非常滿意。但總體而言，其中一些市場仍然低迷，例如無線通信，以阻止該市場的成長並使其保持平穩的軌跡。

In terms of the comeback, we look very closely at a certain index that really, I think, is a good proxy for this piece of our business. It's the purchasing manufacturers index. In the U.S., it spent 15 months below 50, which indicates a contracting economy. The Eurozone is 19 months below 50, again, indicating a contracting economy. We know that Germany is, in fact, in a recession. It's the largest customer -- excuse me, largest country for us in terms of sales and typically, what happens in Germany drives Europe. And this seems to be the case in terms of Europe's muted growth or, in fact, contraction in many areas. And then for China, there really has been no real recovery. They've been going sideways since the lifting of the COVID -- the COVID restrictions.

就捲土重來而言，我們非常密切地關注某個指數，我認為該指數確實可以很好地代表我們的這一部分業務。這是採購製造商指數。在美國，該指數有 15 個月低於 50，這表示經濟正在收縮。歐元區再次連續 19 個月低於 50，顯示經濟正在萎縮。我們知道德國其實正處於經濟衰退之中。它是最大的客戶——對不起，就銷售額而言，這是我們最大的國家，通常，德國發生的事情會推動歐洲。歐洲成長乏力，甚至許多領域實際上出現萎縮，情況似乎就是如此。然後對於中國來說，確實沒有真正的復甦。自從取消新冠肺炎限制以來，他們一直在橫行。

So in terms of when do we feel like these markets will come back? Well, even though these indices are below 50, we've seen steady improvement in both Europe and in the U.S. And so they seem to be working towards a place where they can be back on track at some point, which we anticipate sometime this year. And same for China. I think the big piece of China's turnaround will result from some of the stimulus work they've done prior to the end of last year, which takes around 6 to 8 months to, I think, really get some traction. And perhaps they might do something else also.

那我們覺得這些市場什麼時候會回來呢？好吧，儘管這些指數低於 50，但我們已經看到歐洲和美國的穩步改善，因此他們似乎正在努力在某個時候重回正軌，我們預計今年某個時候。中國也一樣。我認為中國經濟好轉的重要部分將歸功於去年年底之前所做的一些刺激工作，我認為這些工作需要大約 6 到 8 個月的時間才能真正產生一些影響。也許他們還可能做其他事情。

The other thing is we spend a lot of time talking with our customers and they feel the same thing. So as they feel like -- it's been quite a tough year last year and a tough start to this year, they're seeing the same thing. So we've done a lot of calibrations. So we're looking for improvement in the second half of the year. As Ram mentioned in his prepared remarks, we feel like Q1 will be the low point -- or the low point of our results in 2024, and we're preparing for improvement in the second half of the year.

另一件事是我們花了很多時間與客戶交談，他們也有同樣的感覺。因此，正如他們的感受——去年是相當艱難的一年，今年也是一個艱難的開始，他們也看到了同樣的事情。所以我們做了很多校準。因此，我們希望在下半年有所改善。正如 Ram 在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們認為第一季將是 2024 年業績的低點，或者說是我們業績的低點，我們正在為下半年的改進做好準備。

Super helpful. And another question. If demand does not improve over the next quarter or 2, are there additional cost reduction actions that you're prepared to take to improve margins and profitability relative to your Q1 guidance?

超有幫助。還有一個問題。如果需求在下一季或第二季沒有改善，相對於第一季的指導，您是否準備採取額外的成本削減措施來提高利潤率和獲利能力？

I mean I can start and take that. So last year, we did take some aggressive action on cost reductions to marry up our operations and organization versus the demand economy. And so that is always an option we can pursue. But in our opinion at this point, we really feel like there will be some recovery, and we want to be prepared to capture it. If that doesn't happen, then we'll look at several different options that we could take, which might include something like you just mentioned. But we're optimistic that things will get better in the middle of the year and go forward.

我的意思是我可以開始並接受它。因此，去年，我們確實在降低成本方面採取了一些積極的行動，以將我們的營運和組織與需求經濟結合起來。因此，這始終是我們可以追求的選擇。但在我們看來，目前我們確實覺得會有一些復甦，我們希望能做好抓住它的準備。如果這種情況沒有發生，那麼我們將考慮可以採取的幾種不同選擇，其中可能包括您剛才提到的內容。但我們樂觀地認為，情況會在年中好轉並繼續向前發展。

We also have a lot of CapEx in flight. Growth CapEx, along with operations and maintenance CapEx. And I might ask Larry just to make a comment where we've put in a lot of scenarios where if things are slowing more than we thought or not ramping, we can pull the trigger and push out some things. Larry, would you like to continue with this?

我們還有大量資本支出正在使用中。成長資本支出，以及營運和維護資本支出。我可能會請拉里發表評論，我們已經提出了很多場景，如果事情比我們想像的更慢或沒有加​​速，我們可以扣動扳機並推出一些東西。拉里，你想繼續嗎？

Yes. So Will, I think that to build on what Colin said, I think he hit the right things. I think we'll continue to, of course, drive some of the productivity improvements we talked about. That's paramount, and we want to maintain that as a priority. And that's in the procurement and manufacturing space. We will obviously take action to maintain very, very close control of discretionary spending. And that could include some headcount. But we want to be careful about how we manage that with respect to potential snapback. And as Colin also alluded, we've actually developed some scenario planning where we will start to take a look now at -- if we need to reduce capital, where will that be and in what order. So we've prioritized that and we're talking with the businesses now there.

是的。所以威爾，我認為以科林所說的話為基礎，我認為他做對了事情。當然，我認為我們將繼續推動我們談到的一些生產力改進。這是最重要的，我們希望將其作為優先事項。這就是採購和製造領域。顯然，我們將採取行動來保持對可自由支配支出的非常非常嚴格的控制。這可能包括一些員工人數。但我們要謹慎看待如何應對潛在的快速反彈。正如科林也提到的那樣，我們實際上已經制定了一些情境規劃，我們現在將開始考慮——如果我們需要減少資本，將在哪裡以及以什麼順序減少。所以我們已經優先考慮了這一點，並且我們正在與那裡的企業進行對話。

(Operator Instructions) We've reached end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

（操作員說明）我們的問答環節已經結束。我想重新發言以徵求進一步的意見或結束意見。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today, and we look forward to catching up with some folks here over the next several days in callbacks. And in the meantime, have a good evening. Thanks for joining.

謝謝大家今天的加入，我們期待在接下來的幾天裡與這裡的一些人進行回電。同時，祝您有個美好的夜晚。感謝您的加入。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。