Rocket Companies Inc (RKT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Rocket Companies third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Rocket Companies 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Sharon Ng, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Sharon Ng。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Rocket Company's earnings call covering the third quarter of 2024.

大家下午好，感謝您參加 Rocket Company 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

With us this afternoon are Rocket Company's CEO, Varun Krishna; and our CFO, Brian Brown.

今天下午與我們一起的有 Rocket Company 的首席執行官 Varun Krishna；以及我們的財務長 Brian Brown。

Earlier today, we issued our third quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at rocketcompanies.com under Investor Info.

今天早些時候，我們發布了第三季財報，您可以在我們網站 rocketcompanies.com 的「投資者資訊」欄位下查看。

Also available on our website is an investor presentation.

我們的網站上也提供投資者介紹。

Before I turn things over to Varun, let me quickly go over our disclaimers.

在我將事情交給 Varun 之前，請允許我快速回顧我們的免責聲明。

On today's call, we provide you with information regarding our third quarter performance as well as our financial outlook.

在今天的電話會議上，我們向您提供有關我們第三季業績以及財務前景的資訊。

This conference call includes forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and the assumptions we mentioned today.

這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們今天提到的預期和假設有重大差異。

We encourage you to consider the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties.

我們鼓勵您考慮我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含的風險因素，以便詳細討論這些風險和不確定性。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or further events, except as required by law.

除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊或其他事件而更新這些聲明的義務。

This call is being broadcast online and is accessible on our Investor Relations website.

本次電話會議將在線上播出，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

The recording of the call will be posted later today.

通話記錄將於今天稍晚發布。

Our commentary today will also include non-GAAP financial measures.

我們今天的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our earnings release issued earlier today as well as in our filings with the SEC.

我們報告的結果中 GAAP 指標和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳可以在我們今天早些時候發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到。

And with that, I'll turn things over to Varun Krishna to get us started.

現在，我將把事情交給 Varun Krishna 來開始。

Varun?

瓦倫？

Thanks, Sharon.

謝謝，莎倫。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Rocket Company's third quarter 2024 earnings call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Rocket Company 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Two months ago, at our first ever Investor Day, we unveiled our vision for Rocket's future.

兩個月前，在我們的第一個投資者日上，我們宣布了對 Rocket 未來的願景。

Today, I want to kick off our call by emphasizing and extending one key theme optimism.

今天，我想透過強調和延伸一個關鍵主題「樂觀」來開始我們的呼籲。

Optimism is the ability to see the glass as half full.

樂觀就是看到杯子裡還有半杯水。

Over the past few months, the market has thrown our industry almost every curveball imaginable with inflation easing the Fed cut rates for the first time in four years.

在過去的幾個月裡，市場幾乎為我們的產業帶來了所有可以想像的意外，通膨有所緩解，聯準會四年來首次降息。

But in an interesting twist, while the Fed lowered rates, mortgage rates did not follow suit.

但有趣的是，雖然聯準會降低了利率，但抵押貸款利率並未隨之降低。

Instead, both the 10-year treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate actually increased.

相反，10年期公債殖利率和30年期固定抵押貸款利率實際上都上升了。

In my experience, it's always important to take the long view and put things in perspective.

根據我的經驗，放眼長遠並全面看待事物總是很重要的。

Despite the housing market being challenging, we are seeing signs of rejuvenation.

儘管房地產市場充滿挑戰，但我們看到了復甦的跡象。

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined from nearly 8% a year ago.

30年期固定抵押貸款利率已從一年前近8%下降。

This is helping improve purchase affordability and opening up refinancing opportunities to lower monthly payments, plus housing inventory has increased from 3.4 months to 4.3 months showing a 26% improvement.

這有助於提高購屋承受能力，並開闢再融資機會以降低每月還款額，此外，房屋庫存從 3.4 個月增加到 4.3 個月，提高了 26%。

We're still below the five- to six-month range that's considered a balanced healthy market but inventory is moving in the right direction.

我們仍低於被認為是平衡健康市場的五到六個月範圍，但庫存正在朝著正確的方向發展。

While affordability and inventory are certainly still challenges, the market is showing signs of improvement compared to last year, and we're right there with consumers, navigating their needs together and in service of our mission to help everyone home.

雖然負擔能力和庫存仍然是挑戰，但與去年相比，市場正在顯示出改善的跡象，我們與消費者站在一起，共同滿足他們的需求，並致力於幫助每個人回家的使命。

Our mindset reflects the importance of optimism in a world that continues to be riddled with uncertainty.

我們的心態反映出在這個仍然充滿不確定性的世界中樂觀的重要性。

That is because homeownership is and always will be the cornerstone of the American dream.

這是因為，房屋所有權現在是、而且永遠都是美國夢的基石。

Every day, we make 30-year bets on clients who are betting on themselves, our role in opening the door to that dream is what makes us proud to be Rocket.

每天，我們都在為客戶打賭 30 年，而客戶也在為自己打賭，我們在打開夢想之門的過程中所扮演的角色讓我們為成為 Rocket 而感到自豪。

Let me take a minute to reflect on the results of the quarter.

請容許我花一點時間來回顧本季的業績。

At Investor Day, we announced our bold 2027 market share goals to double our purchase market share from 4% to 8% and increase our refinance market share from 12% to 20%.

在投資者日，我們宣布了大膽的 2027 年市佔率目標，即將我們的購買市佔率從 4% 增加一倍至 8%，並將我們的再融資市佔率從 12% 增加到 20%。

This quarter was a solid step toward these goals, I am so pleased to share that we expanded both our purchase and refinance market share year-over-year in the third quarter.

本季朝著這些目標邁出了堅實的一步，我很高興地告訴大家，我們在第三季的購買和再融資市場份額同比均有所擴大。

We delivered $1.323 billion in adjusted revenue, surpassing the high end of our guidance and accelerating growth compared to Q2.

我們實現了 13.23 億美元的調整後收入，超過了我們預期的最高水準，並且與第二季相比成長加速。

Net rate lock volume surged 43% year-over-year, driven by significant refinance activity alongside growth in purchase volume.

受再融資活動顯著和購買量成長的推動，淨利率鎖定量年增 43%。

Our adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 22%, 3 times higher than Q3 of 2023.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%，比 2023 年第三季高出 3 倍。

We also reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.08. These numbers are a direct result of one basic thing, execution.

我們也報告調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.08 美元。這些數字直接源自於一個基本因素，那就是執行力。

Our team members continuously refine every aspect of our sales and operational processes, marketing and product technology to fight for every inch of progress.

我們的團隊成員不斷完善銷售和營運流程、行銷和產品技術的各個方面，爭取每一寸進步。

That execution excellence is built on decades of investment and toward a durable competitive advantage, which we call the Rocket's Superstack.

卓越的執行力建立在數十年的投資和持久的競爭優勢之上，我們稱之為「火箭超級堆疊」。

This is the key to the strong short-term results we're seeing today and is also the foundation for long-term value creation and growth.

這是我們今天看到的強勁短期業績的關鍵，也是長期價值創造和成長的基礎。

Our Superstack is comprised of four layers, a robust end-to-end ecosystem, multichannel experiences we create for clients, team members and partners, proprietary AI-driven technology.

我們的超級堆疊由四層組成，一個強大的端到端生態系統、我們為客戶、團隊成員和合作夥伴創建的多通路體驗以及專有的人工智慧驅動技術。

And lastly, our iconic brand.

最後，我們的標誌性品牌。

The integration of these four layers serves as the engine that drives growth, scale and efficiency.

這四個層面的整合是推動成長、規模和效率的引擎。

Let's dive into each layer and unpack a few highlights from the quarter.

讓我們深入了解每一層，並解讀本季的一些亮點。

First off is the power of our unique ecosystem.

首先是我們獨特生態系的力量。

A system that connects each step of the journey from finding and financing a home to servicing the title and closing and the journey beyond.

該系統連接了從尋找房屋、融資房屋到產權服務和成交以及之後的整個過程的每個步驟。

At the very heart of our ecosystem lies our origination servicing flywheel.

我們的生態系統的核心是我們的起源服務飛輪。

Once the client enters the flywheel, we provide them with outstanding origination and servicing experiences, and we earn the privilege of becoming their lender for life.

一旦客戶進入飛輪，我們將為他們提供卓越的發起和服務體驗，並贏得成為其終身貸款人的特權。

Last month, we announced a strategic sub-servicing partnership with Annaly.

上個月，我們宣布與 Annaly 建立策略子服務合作夥伴關係。

This partnership allows us to expand our servicing portfolio in a capital-efficient manner.

透過這種合作關係，我們可以以資本高效的方式擴大我們的服務組合。

We're excited to onboard these clients into the Rocket ecosystem this December and provide them with an amazing origination and servicing experience that sets Rocket apart.

我們很高興能在今年 12 月將這些客戶納入 Rocket 生態系統，並為他們提供讓 Rocket 與眾不同的卓越發起和服務體驗。

Our industry-leading 85% recapture rate speaks to the client experience that people love that keeps them coming back to Rocket, establishing a long-term relationship.

我們在業界領先的 85% 的重新獲得率說明客戶體驗深受人們喜愛，並促使他們不斷回到 Rocket，建立長期合作關係。

There's no additional acquisition costs for clients in our ecosystem, creating even more operating leverage.

我們的生態系統中的客戶無需承擔額外的收購成本，從而創造了更多的營運槓桿。

This very same ecosystem brings innovative mortgage products tailored to today's market to our clients.

同樣的生態系統為我們的客戶帶來了適合當今市場的創新抵押貸款產品。

With home affordability top of mind, our affordable product suite is helping clients get a leg up for bringing the dream of homeownership closer.

考慮到住房負擔能力，我們價格實惠的產品套件可幫助客戶更接近擁有住房的夢想。

These products have struck a cord making up a quarter of our purchase volume since the beginning of this year.

這些產品引起了極大的反響，自今年年初以來，它們佔了我們採購量的四分之一。

Our recently launched, Welcome Home RateBreak is a great example.

我們最近推出的「Welcome Home RateBreak」就是一個很好的例子。

We reduced rates by 2 points in the first year and 1 point in the second providing meaningful affordability relief for homebuyers.

我們在第一年將利率降低了 2 個點，在第二年降低了 1 個點，為購屋者提供了有意義的負擔能力緩解。

Since its launch in late August, we've seen our [OnePlus] and Welcome Home RateBreak product groups grow by more than 20%.

自 8 月底推出以來，我們的 [OnePlus] 和 Welcome Home RateBreak 產品組成長了 20% 以上。

Now on top of our ecosystem sits our experience layer, where we're breaking new ground and delivering delight to our clients.

現在，我們的生態系統之上是我們的體驗層，我們在此開拓新領域並為客戶帶來愉悅。

We have made tremendous strides this quarter in expanding our gen AI-powered chat functionality.

本季度，我們在擴展新一代人工智慧聊天功能方面取得了巨大進步。

Our generative and live chat is now fully integrated across all our digital platforms handling everything from purchase to refinancing and servicing, 24/7 where their clients are logged in or not.

我們的生成和即時聊天現已完全整合在我們所有的數位平台上，處理從購買到再融資和服務的所有事務，無論客戶是否登錄，全天候提供服務。

This round-the-clock access is key with 20% of our clients contacting us outside of regular business hours.

這種全天候的訪問至關重要，因為 20％ 的客戶在正常工作時間以外與我們聯繫。

We're seeing significant growth here as chat interactions with our bankers have more than doubled quarter-over-quarter.

我們看到了顯著的成長，因為我們與銀行家的聊天互動比上一季增加了一倍以上。

Beyond just the literal growth in the number of interactions, chat is driving real results.

除了互動數量在字面上的增長之外，聊天還帶來了實際成果。

Every chat is a chance to deliver personalized, insightful experiences that deepen client engagement, which in turn leads to higher conversion.

每次聊天都是提供個人化、富有洞察力的體驗的機會，可以加深客戶參與度，進而帶來更高的轉換率。

Clients who use chat are converting 3 times higher compared to those who don't.

使用聊天的客戶的轉換率比不使用聊天的客戶的轉換率高出 3 倍。

From first interaction to credit pull.

從第一次互動到信用拉動。

We often talk about letting technology do what it does best, creating our team members to focus on what they do best, helping our clients.

我們經常談論讓科技發揮最擅長的作用，讓我們的團隊成員專注於他們最擅長的領域，幫助我們的客戶。

Responding with urgency when our clients need us most is the ante to play.

在客戶最需要我們的時候緊急回應是我們應盡的義務。

I can't think of a better example where this was put to the test that most recently during the hurricanes that hit the Southeast.

我想不出一個更好的例子來檢驗這一點，那就是最近襲擊東南部的颶風。

While dealing with a devastating situation, I couldn't be prouder of our team's quick technology-enabled response to support and be there for our clients.

在處理災難性的情況時，我對我們團隊利用技術支援快速回應並為客戶提供幫助感到無比自豪。

We track the storm path in real time we activated our emergency playbook.

我們即時追蹤風暴路徑並啟動了應急計畫。

We customized our digital tools before landfall.

我們在登陸前定制了我們的數位工具。

Self-service options like our website AI-powered chat and IVR allowed nearly 70% of effective servicing clients to get immediate answers on credit suppression, late fee waivers and forbearance.

我們網站人工智慧聊天和 IVR 等自助服務選項使近 70% 的有效服務客戶能夠立即獲得有關信用抑制、滯納金減免和寬容的答案。

Seamlessly connecting them to our team when they needed personal support.

當他們需要個人支持時，無縫地將他們與我們的團隊聯繫起來。

We also saw a significant threefold increase in disaster inspection reports for affected counties compared to the weekly average in the months before.

我們還發現，受災縣的災害檢查報告數量與前幾個月的每週平均值相比增加了三倍。

But this process can often be delayed at the collateral underwriter review stage where workloads are already substantial.

但這過程往往會在抵押品承銷商審查階段被推遲，因為此時的工作量已經很大。

Quickly reviewing this report is critical to getting our clients' loans back on track.

快速審查此報告對於讓我們客戶的貸款重回正軌至關重要。

Thanks to automation efforts we put in place months ago, we cut review times by 71% allowing us to push through this bottleneck and quickly provide next steps to help our clients move toward closing.

由於我們幾個月前實施的自動化措施，我們將審核時間縮短了 71％，這使我們能夠突破這套瓶頸并快速提供後續步驟來幫助我們的客戶達成交易。

Let's move to the third layer that powers our ecosystem and experience, technology.

讓我們進入為我們的生態系統和體驗提供動力的第三層，即技術。

The ability to leverage technology is crucial to scale, drive profitable growth and adapt to market shifts.

利用技術的能力對於擴大規模、推動獲利成長和適應市場變化至關重要。

Let me share just two quick examples.

讓我分享兩個簡單的例子。

In our business, constantly we're asking and answering complex questions like which loans are in the money in Wayne County, Michigan?

在我們的業務中，我們經常會問到和回答一些複雜的問題，例如密西根州韋恩縣有哪些貸款？

Or is this loan compliant with regulations in Nevada?

或者這筆貸款是否符合內華達州的規定？

For many lenders answering these questions takes intense research.

對於許多貸款人來說，回答這些問題需要深入的研究。

It can take many hours or even days involving multiple data analysts or engineers pulling data from various sources.

這可能需要數小時甚至數天的時間，需要多名資料分析師或工程師從各種來源提取資料。

This is just the industry norm, but not at Rocket.

這只是行業常態，但 Rocket 卻並非如此。

Rocket is changing the game with a new technology called Navigator.

Rocket 正在利用一項名為 Navigator 的新技術改變遊戲規則。

Our internal AI-driven knowledge and workflow platform that puts answers to questions within reach in seconds.

我們的內部人工智慧驅動的知識和工作流程平台可以在幾秒鐘內提供問題的答案。

Navigator empowers our team members to create no-code apps, experiment with AI securely, summarize documents, analyze sentiment and even role-play scenarios.

Navigator 讓我們的團隊成員能夠創建無程式碼應用程式、安全地試驗 AI、總結文件、分析情緒甚至角色扮演場景。

Navigators AI automates complex queries, empowering more people to drive innovation on their own without involving support from a data analyst or engineer.

Navigators AI 可自動執行複雜查詢，讓更多人能夠自行推動創新，而無需資料分析師或工程師的支援。

With Navigator's conversational AI interface, our team now has the answers they need at their fingertips and the results are impressive.

借助 Navigator 的對話式 AI 介面，我們的團隊現在可以輕鬆獲得所需的答案，而且結果令人印象深刻。

In just a few months, over 2,000 team members have logged more than 52,000 LLM interactions, and they love it.

在短短幾個月內，超過 2,000 名團隊成員記錄了超過 52,000 次 LLM 互動，他們非常喜歡它。

Daily active users have been climbing steadily since launch, nearly doubling from August to October.

自推出以來，每日活躍用戶一直穩定攀升，8月至10月成長了近一倍。

By automating complex queries, Navigator is multiplying the number of innovators at Rocket by an order of magnitude.

透過自動執行複雜查詢，Navigator 將 Rocket 的創新者數量增加了一個數量級。

That is the power of AI in a nutshell.

簡而言之，這就是人工智慧的力量。

We've also continued to build out our proprietary AI-powered loan origination system, Rocket Logic.

我們也繼續建造我們專有的人工智慧貸款發放系統 Rocket Logic。

We recently expanded Synopsis to handle all inbound calls and the results of skyrocketed.

我們最近擴充了 Synopsis 來處理所有來電，結果一飛沖天。

In early November, we reached a major milestone, processing nearly 1 million calls in a single week.

11 月初，我們達到了一個重要的里程碑，一週內處理了近 100 萬通電話。

The power of processing these calls through AI results in transformative insights to our business.

透過人工智慧處理這些通話的能力將為我們的業務帶來變革性的洞察。

Each call provides semantic data that lets us extract names, sentiment, call purpose, pain points and more.

每個呼叫都提供語義數據，讓我們可以提取姓名、情緒、呼叫目的、痛點等。

These tags create meta data that helps us strategically allocate resources, equip our bankers with valuable real-time insights and address specific needs, ultimately driving higher conversion rates.

這些標籤創建的元資料可幫助我們策略性地分配資源，為我們的銀行家提供寶貴的即時見解並滿足特定需求，最終提高轉換率。

With Synopsis, we have insight into a client's purchase journey, whether they have a home in line, have submitted an offer or had it accepted.

透過 Synopsis，我們可以深入了解客戶的購買歷程，無論他們是否正在等待購買房屋、是否已提交報價或報價是否已被接受。

This allows us to connect high-intent clients with the right bankers creating more meaningful interactions and driving purchase conversion.

這使我們能夠將有意願的客戶與合適的銀行家聯繫起來，創造更有意義的互動並推動購買轉換。

The last layer of the stack is the icing on the cake, our iconic brand.

堆疊的最後一層是錦上添花，也就是我們的標誌性品牌。

The Rocket brand is one of our greatest superpowers.

Rocket 品牌是我們最強大的超能力之一。

While Rocket is already an admired brand, this coming year we will significantly amplify its identity, purpose and impact in homeownership.

雖然 Rocket 已經是一個受人尊敬的品牌，但明年我們將大大擴大其在房屋所有權方面的形象、宗旨和影響力。

Over the past few months, we've zeroed in on the growth audiences that are set to reshape the home buying landscape.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們把注意力集中在即將重塑購屋格局的成長受眾身上。

E-mail heads of households, Hispanics and aging first-time buyers just to name a few.

向戶主、西班牙裔人士和老年首次購屋者發送電子郵件，僅舉幾例。

By 2030, over half of first-time homebuyers will be Hispanic.

到 2030 年，超過一半的首次購屋者將是西班牙裔。

Meanwhile, the economic influence of women will continue to surge with women managing two-third of household wealth.

同時，女性的經濟影響力將持續上升，女性管理三分之二的家庭財富。

Our brand will evolve to meet these clients exactly where they are.

我們的品牌將持續發展，以滿足這些客戶的準確需求。

In February of 2025, we will unveil the new Rocket brand identity.

2025 年 2 月，我們將揭曉新的 Rocket 品牌標誌。

The transformation began with our recent acquisition of rocket.com, a site that will unify the homeownership experience across home search and mortgage.

這項轉型始於我們最近收購 rocket.com，該網站將統一房屋搜尋和抵押貸款的房屋所有權體驗。

In the coming months, we will share a greater ambition with the country and establish a brand that represents the ability for our clients to own the elusive American dream once more.

在未來的幾個月裡，我們將與國家分享更大的抱負，並建立一個代表我們的客戶再次擁有難以捉摸的美國夢的能力的品牌。

Let me quickly summarize.

讓我快速總結一下。

Each layer of our Superstack accelerates our execution and propels us forward.

我們的超級堆疊的每一層都加速了我們的執行並推動我們前進。

The stack is a durable advantage that empowers us to set bold goals and establishes clarity on how we will achieve them.

堆疊是一種持久的優勢，它使我們能夠設定大膽的目標，並明確我們將如何實現這些目標。

Each layer is unique to Rocket and combines to create a hole that is greater than the sum of parts.

每層對 Rocket 來說都是獨一無二的，它們組合起來創造出的洞大於各部分之和。

What truly excites me isn't just the what of our strategy, but the how and most importantly, the who.

真正令我興奮的不僅是我們的策略是什麼，而且是怎麼實施的，以及最重要的是，誰來實施。

We've built a world-class leadership team, bringing in key executives with deep expertise in AI and technology to work hand in hand with the best homeownership mortgage and finance leadership team in the industry.

我們建立了一支世界一流的領導團隊，引進了在人工智慧和技術方面擁有深厚專業知識的關鍵高管，與業內最好的房屋抵押貸款和金融領導團隊攜手合作。

Together, we are poised to drive needed change in modernization in the industry, and I am so proud to work alongside them every single day.

我們共同致力於推動產業現代化所需的變革，我很自豪能夠每天與他們一起工作。

I'm going to close where I started.

我將回到我開始的地方來結束它。

Our mission is to help everyone home, a mission that reflects the optimism we have toward our future growth.

我們的使命是幫助每個人回家，這項使命反映了我們對未來成長的樂觀態度。

Forecast for the mortgage origination market indicate a 20% to 30% year-over-year growth in 2025.

抵押貸款發放市場預測表明，到 2025 年，其成長率將達到 20% 至 30%。

That gets us excited and creates an opportunity to capture share.

這讓我們感到興奮，並創造了奪取市場份額的機會。

And no matter how the market evolves in the coming years, our $5 trillion market opportunity reflects our potential and our ambition.

無論未來幾年市場如何發展，我們 5 兆美元的市場機會都體現了我們的潛力和雄心壯志。

We firmly believe Rocket is well positioned to drive disruption and transform the industry to benefit millions of homeowners.

我們堅信 Rocket 有能力推動產業顛覆和轉型，讓數百萬房主受益。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

現在，我將把話題交給 Brian。

Thank you, Varun, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，瓦倫，大家午安。

I'd like to start by setting the stage and framing how we're responding to market realities and seizing opportunities as they come.

首先，我想介紹我們如何應對市場現實並抓住機會。

And why we are uniquely positioned to capture a bigger slice of the homeownership market.

這就是為什麼我們擁有獨特的優勢，可以佔據更大的房屋所有權市場。

It's been an interesting couple of months for the industry.

對於該行業來說過去幾個月是有趣的。

For most of the third quarter, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have trended lower from nearly 7% in July to touching 6% during a two-week window mid-September.

在第三季的大部分時間裡，30 年期固定抵押貸款利率呈下降趨勢，從 7 月的近 7% 下降至 9 月中旬的兩週內的 6%。

However, stronger-than-expected economic indicators, caused the 10-year yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates to quickly jump back to 7%.

然而，經濟指標強於預期，導致10年期殖利率和30年期固定抵押貸款利率迅速回升至7%。

In short, the market has been anything but predictable.

簡而言之，市場一直難以預測。

Since interest rates are impossible to predict with any certainty, the key is scaling up quickly to capture the market opportunity when it presents itself.

由於利率無法準確預測，因此關鍵在於迅速擴大規模，以抓住出現的市場機會。

The third quarter was a perfect example of this.

第三季就是一個很好的例子。

When rates briefly dipped to near 6%, clients who had financed homes in the past two years jumped at the chance to lower their payments.

當利率一度降至 6% 左右時，過去兩年內曾融資購屋的客戶抓住機會降低了還款額。

We also saw a lift in our purchase pipeline as affordability improved reaching our highest daily production volumes in the past 24 months during that brief window.

由於經濟承受能力的提高，我們的採購管道也有所增加，在這短暫的時間內，我們的日產量達到了過去 24 個月以來的最高水準。

It was a game on moment, and we scaled up quickly to capture this volume surge.

這是一場瞬息萬變的遊戲，我們迅速擴大規模以抓住這一數量的激增。

Every layer of our Rocket Superstack, our ecosystem, experience, technology and brand played a role in powering execution across the board.

我們的 Rocket Superstack 的每一層、我們的生態系統、經驗、技術和品牌都在全面推動執行方面發揮作用。

We captured more top of funnel leads through all of our channels, including direct-to-consumer, broker, partnerships and, of course, our service clients.

我們透過所有管道捕捉了更多的漏斗頂部線索，包括直接面向消費者的管道、經紀人、合作夥伴，當然還有我們的服務客戶。

We launched innovative mortgage products like our Welcome home rate break promotion to meet the moment, supercharge our bankers with tools to serve more clients and boosted conversion throughout the funnel.

我們推出了創新的抵押貸款產品，例如「歡迎回家」利率優惠促銷活動，以滿足當前形勢，為我們的銀行家提供更多工具來服務更多客戶，並提高整個管道的轉換率。

Altogether, this can be captured and converted more leads with speed and scale without adding head count or increasing fixed costs.

總而言之，這可以快速、大規模地捕獲和轉換更多的潛在客戶，而無需增加員工人數或增加固定成本。

Reflects up our capacity seamlessly through our technology platform.

透過我們的技術平台無縫反映我們的能力。

That's the power of what we're building at Rocket.

這就是我們在 Rocket 所建構的力量。

When these windows of opportunity open, we're ready to act.

當這些機會之窗打開時，我們就準備採取行動。

This lightning fast execution is unique to us and hard for others in the industry to replicate.

這種閃電般的快速執行能力是我們獨有的，業內其他人很難複製。

To take advantage of the brief 6% rate opportunity in the quarter, most mortgage companies would have needed higher train licensed loan officers and underwriters month in advance.

為了利用本季短暫的 6% 利率機會，大多數抵押貸款公司需要提前一個月對持牌貸款人員和承銷商進行更高程度的培訓。

Relying on human capital to drive capacity likely means missing the opportunity entirely.

依靠人力資本來推動產能可能意味著完全錯失機會。

Equally important to seizing the market opportunity is staying resilient when the market contracts.

抓住市場機會與在市場萎縮時保持韌性同樣重要。

Thanks to our tech platform, we can flex our capacity up or down without the whiplash of hiring and layoff typical and traditional mortgage models.

借助我們的技術平台，我們可以靈活調整產能，而無需僱用和裁員，從而擺脫典型的傳統抵押貸款模式。

No matter what the market throws at us, we stay focused on our goal to capture profitable market share in any environment.

無論市場為我們帶來什麼，我們都會專注於我們的目標，在任何環境下佔據有利可圖的市場份額。

When we zoom out, as Varun shared, we see reasons for optimism.

正如 Varun 所說，當我們縮小視野時，我們看到了樂觀的理由。

Compared to a year ago, the 30-year fixed rate has trended lower.

與一年前相比，30年期固定利率呈下降趨勢。

Housing inventory measured in months of supply has increased by nearly 30%.

以供應月數衡量的房屋庫存增加了近 30%。

Active home listings have grown for 12 consecutive months, and the share of homes sold above the listing price is down 10% year-over-year, signaling a cooling in the competitive bidding for homes.

活躍房屋掛牌量連續12個月成長，高於掛牌價售出的房屋比例年減10%，顯示房屋競價競爭正在降溫。

While there's still affordability challenges, these are promising signs, and we anticipate even more momentum as we head into the new year.

雖然仍然存在著負擔能力方面的挑戰，但這些都是令人鼓舞的跡象，我們預計，在新的一年裡，這股勢頭將更加強勁。

Now with that backdrop, I'll take you through our strong Q3 financial performance, talk more about how AI is unlocking value for our business and the critical role that our origination servicing flywheel plays in fueling our financial success.

現在，在這樣的背景下，我將帶您了解我們強勁的第三季財務業績，進一步談談人工智慧如何為我們的業務釋放價值，以及我們的發起服務飛輪在推動我們的財務成功方面發揮的關鍵作用。

I'll also touch on our new investment-grade credit rating, and I'll wrap up with our outlook for the fourth quarter.

我還將談談我們新的投資級信用評級，並總結我們對第四季度的展望。

Let's jump in.

讓我們開始吧。

If I had to sum up this quarter in one phrase, it's light out execution.

如果我必須用一個短語來總結本季度，那就是出色的執行力。

We grew purchase and refinance market share, revenue and profitability on a year-over-year basis.

我們的購買和再融資市場份額、收入和獲利能力逐年增長。

Adjusted revenue came in at $1.323 billion, above the high end of our guidance range.

調整後營收為 13.23 億美元，高於我們預期範圍的高點。

This represents a 32% increase from the third quarter of last year and our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.

這比去年第三季成長了 32%，這也是我們連續第五個季度實現年比成​​長。

We generated $30 billion in net rate lock volume, marking a 43% increase year-over-year and our highest volume since the first quarter of 2022.

我們產生了 300 億美元的淨利率鎖定量，年增 43%，創下 2022 年第一季以來的最高交易量。

This year-over-year growth included double-digit increases in both purchase and refinance.

這一同比增長包括購買和再融資的兩位數增長。

Our home equity product posted another record high.

我們的房屋淨值產品再創歷史新高。

Lean on sale margin held steady at 278 basis points roughly flat with the same period last year.

銷售利潤率維持穩定，為278個基點，與去年同期基本持平。

From a channel perspective, our direct-to-consumer sold loan gain on sale margins have climbed to over 400 basis points while our partner network margins have increased to roughly 150 basis points.

從通路角度來看，我們直接面向消費者銷售的貸款銷售利潤率已攀升至 400 個基點以上，而我們的合作夥伴網路利潤率已增加至約 150 個基點。

Our continued focus on driving top line growth, operational leverage and efficiency combined to make the third quarter our most profitable quarter in two years.

我們持續致力於推動營收成長、營運槓桿和效率，使第三季成為我們兩年來最賺錢的季度。

Adjusted EBITDA was $286 million, representing a margin of 22%.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.86 億美元，利潤率為 22%。

We reported adjusted net income of $166 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.08.

我們報告調整後的淨收入為 1.66 億美元，調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.08 美元。

When we talk about profitability, it's driven not only by our top line growth, but also by creating operating leverage, powered by our investment in technology.

當我們談論獲利能力時，它不僅是由我們的營收成長所推動的，而且還由我們對科技的投資所創造的經營槓桿所推動的。

Our scalable tech platform is what empowers us to navigate dynamic markets with agility.

我們的可擴展技術平台使我們能夠靈活地駕馭動態市場。

From my perspective, the most powerful benefit of AI is the boost it gives to operational efficiency and productivity.

從我的角度來看，人工智慧最強大的優勢是它提高了營運效率和生產力。

Simply put, it's about achieving more with the same resources.

簡單來說，就是利用相同的資源來實現更多成果。

The increase we're seeing in team member productivity translates directly into greater capacity.

我們看到團隊成員生產力的提升直接轉化為更大的能力。

We unlock this capacity through technology while others in the industry try to grow it by adding headcount which is inefficient and has a long runway.

我們透過科技來釋放這種產能，而業內其他公司則試圖透過增加員工來擴大產能，這種方式效率低下，而且週期很長。

And when the market contracts, you're left with excess capacity and inflated costs.

而當市場萎縮時，就會出現產能過剩和成本膨脹的情況。

Today, we have the capacity to support $150 billion in origination volume without adding a single dollar of fixed cost.

今天，我們有能力支持 1500 億美元的貸款發放量，而無需增加一分錢的固定成本。

We proved that this quarter.

本季我們證明了這一點。

Not only do we handle more volume, net rate lock volume was up 43%, but we did so with 7% fewer production team members year-over-year.

我們不僅處理了更多的業務量，淨利率鎖定量增加了 43%，而且生產團隊成員的數量比去年同期減少了 7%。

Our AI tools are driving these things from automating income verification and collateral review to enabling multiple client chats and insights that boost conversion.

我們的人工智慧工具正在推動這些事情，從自動化收入驗證和抵押品審查到實現多個客戶聊天和提高轉換率的見解。

Rocket Logic, our proprietary loan origination system is driving massive efficiency improvements.

Rocket Logic 是我們的專有貸款發放系統，正在推動大規模的效率提升。

With recent updates, we're saving over 800,000 team member hours annually, a 14% increase from just two months ago, resulting in more than $30 million in annual savings but it's more than just cost savings.

透過最近的更新，我們每年節省了超過 80 萬個團隊成員的工作時間，比兩個月前增加了 14％，每年節省了超過 3000 萬美元，但這不僅僅是成本節省。

AI is giving us greater speed, accuracy and personalization, boosting conversion rates and fueling growth.

人工智慧為我們提供了更快的速度、準確性和個人化，提高了轉換率並促進了成長。

Operational efficiency is a top priority for us, and we're constantly evolving to keep ourselves lean, agile and competitive.

營運效率是我們的首要任務，我們不斷發展以保持精簡、靈活和競爭力。

Another key part of our business model is our origination servicing flywheel.

我們的商業模式的另一個關鍵部分是我們的起源服務飛輪。

As we've discussed on previous calls and at Investor Day, MSRs are an attractive way to acquire future origination clients.

正如我們在先前的電話會議和投資者日上所討論的那樣，MSR 是一種獲取未來發起客戶的有吸引力的方式。

Together, our origination and servicing businesses form powerful homeownership flywheel that allows us to source new clients and organically create new MSRs while positioning us to help clients with future transactions, be it their next purchase, refinance or even home equity loan.

我們的發起和服務業務共同構成了強大的房屋所有權飛輪，使我們能夠尋找新客戶並有機地創建新的 MSR，同時使我們能夠幫助客戶進行未來的交易，無論是下一次購買、再融資還是房屋淨值貸款。

Earning repeat business is what we refer to as our recapture rate.

獲得回頭客就是我們所說的回收率。

Our goal is to provide a client experience that is so exceptional that we become the clients go to for all future home financing needs.

我們的目標是提供卓越的客戶體驗，以便我們成為客戶未來所有住房融資需求的首選。

Our industry-leading 85% recapture is a testament to the client experience.

我們行業領先的 85% 回收率證明了客戶體驗。

When you sell excel something, you earn the opportunity to extend that value beyond your own ecosystem and offer it to your partners.

當您銷售出色的產品時，您就有機會將該價值擴展到您自己的生態系統之外並將其提供給您的合作夥伴。

Our high recapture rate is a win-win for both Rocket and our partners.

我們的高回收率對於 Rocket 和我們的合作夥伴來說是雙贏的。

It is a powerful advantage for MSR owners without in-house origination capabilities as it offsets the prepayment risk inherent to owning MSRs.

對於不具備內部發起能力的 MSR 所有者來說，這是一個強大的優勢，因為它抵消了擁有 MSR 所固有的預付款風險。

This also makes cash flows more predictable for our partners, reducing the need for complex costly hedging strategies.

這也使我們的合作夥伴的現金流更加可預測，從而減少了對複雜且昂貴的對沖策略的需求。

In October, we proudly announced a partnership to subservice a portion of Annaly's MSR portfolio.

十月份，我們很自豪地宣佈建立合作夥伴關係，為 Annaly 的部分 MSR 產品組合提供子服務。

This strategic sub-servicing partnership complements our strategy of growing servicing through organic new originations as well as bulk acquisitions.

這項策略性次級服務合作夥伴關係對我們透過有機新業務發起以及批量收購來增加服務規模的策略進行了補充。

Across bulk acquisitions and sub-servicing year-to-date, we've acquired or committed to add over $70 billion of unpaid principal balance to our service portfolio.

今年迄今為止，透過大量收購和次級服務，我們已獲得或承諾為我們的服務組合增加超過 700 億美元的未付本金餘額。

That's a 15% increase compared to the 2023 year-end balance.

與 2023 年年末餘額相比，增加了 15%。

This growth represents 220,000 new clients who represent prime candidates for future purchases, home equity loans and rate and term refinances.

這一成長意味著220,000名新客戶，他們是未來購買、房屋淨值貸款以及利率和期限再融資的主要候選人。

As of September 30, our mortgage servicing portfolio included 2.6 million loans with $546 billion of unpaid principal balance.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的抵押貸款服務組合包括 260 萬筆貸款，未償還本金餘額為 5,460 億美元。

In the quarter, we generated $374 million of cash revenue from our servicing book, which represents approximately $1.5 billion on an annualized basis.

本季度，我們從服務帳簿上產生了 3.74 億美元的現金收入，以年率計算約為 15 億美元。

We ended the third quarter with $3 billion of available cash and $6.8 billion of mortgage servicing rights.

截至第三季度，我們擁有 30 億美元的可用現金和 68 億美元的抵押貸款服務權。

Together, these assets represent a total of $9.8 billion of value on the balance sheet.

這些資產在資產負債表上的總價值為 98 億美元。

Our $3 billion of available cash consisted of $1.2 billion of cash on the balance sheet and an additional $1.8 billion of corporate cash used to self-fund loan originations.

我們的 30 億美元可用現金包括資產負債表上的 12 億美元現金和用於自籌貸款發放資金的另外 18 億美元公司現金。

And as of September 30, total liquidity stood at approximately $8.3 billion, including available cash plus undrawn lines of credit.

截至 9 月 30 日，總流動資金約為 83 億美元，包括可用現金和未提取的信用額度。

As a testament for a sustained financial strength, I'm proud to share that Fitch recently upgraded Rocket Mortgage to investment grade.

作為持續財務實力的證明，我很自豪地宣布惠譽最近將 Rocket Mortgage 的評級提升至投資級。

This makes Rocket mortgage the first nonbank mortgage company to receive investment-grade status from one of the three big rating agencies in almost two decades.

這使得 Rocket Mortgage 成為近二十年來第一家獲得三大評級機構之一授予投資等級評級的非銀行抵押貸款公司。

This achievement highlights our strong balance sheet and financial profile and paves the way to access a wider range of funding sources at a much more favorable cost of funds.

這項成就凸顯了我們強勁的資產負債表和財務狀況，並為以更優惠的資金成本獲取更廣泛的資金來源鋪平了道路。

This added flexibility positions us to continue to allocate capital and service of our growth strategy.

這種增加的靈活性使我們能夠繼續分配成長策略的資本和服務。

Turning to our fourth quarter outlook.

談談我們對第四季的展望。

Based on typical seasonality, we anticipate the mortgage market in the fourth quarter to be smaller than the third quarter.

根據典型的季節性，我們預計第四季的抵押貸款市場將小於第三季。

We expect adjusted revenue to be in the range of $1.050 billion to $1.200 billion.

我們預計調整後的營收將在 10.5 億美元至 12 億美元之間。

The midpoint of this range represents 27% year-over-year growth and reflects continued market share gains.

該範圍的中間點代表著年增27%，並反映出市場佔有率的持續成長。

We expect expenses in the fourth quarter to be in line with the third quarter.

我們預計第四季的支出將與第三季持平。

The fourth quarter includes marketing spend related to our brand restage and the annual renewal of banker licensures.

第四季包括與我們的品牌重塑和銀行家執照年度更新相關的行銷支出。

As always, our forward-looking guidance is based on our current outlook and visibility.

像往常一樣，我們的前瞻性指引是基於我們當前的展望和遠見。

As we look ahead, we're excited and optimistic about what's to come.

展望未來，我們感到興奮並充滿樂觀。

Over the years, I've seen us navigate a wide range of markets, consistently proving our ability to thrive through both highs and lows.

多年來，我見證了我們在廣泛的市場中摸索，不斷證明我們有能力在高潮和低潮中蓬勃發展。

What excites me most is that Rocket is now better positioned than ever before.

最讓我興奮的是 Rocket 目前的地位比以前任何時候都更高。

This optimism isn't just mine, it's shared across our entire organization.

這種樂觀不只是我個人的，我們整個組織都是如此。

Rocket has what it takes to disrupt, capture and grow at scale in an industry where only the strongest drive.

Rocket 擁有在只有最強大的動力才能推動的產業中顛覆、佔領和大規模成長的一切能力。

We're making bold investments, setting ambitious goals and accelerating execution all with a clear focus on creating long-term value for our shareholders.

我們正在進行大膽的投資，制定雄心勃勃的目標並加快執行，所有這些都明確著眼於為股東創造長期價值。

With that, we're ready to turn it back over to the operator for questions.

現在，我們準備將其交還給接線員以回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Adelson from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的傑夫·阿德爾森。

Hi, good evening.

嗨，晚上好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe, Brian, you could start with the drivers behind the revenue outlook for the fourth quarter.

布萊恩，也許您可以從第四季度收入前景背後的驅動因素開始。

It looks like you're looking for roughly a 10% to 20% decline in the range there, sequentially.

看起來你正在尋找大約 10% 到 20% 的連續下降範圍。

Can you just break out maybe what you're seeing on volume versus gain on sale margin there?

能否簡單介紹一下銷售量與銷售利潤率之間的關係？

Or what other assumptions are sort of embedded in that guide?

或者該指南中還包含哪些其他假設？

Jeff, thanks for your question.

傑夫，謝謝你的提問。

Let me start, and then I'll ask Brian to chime in on the gain margins.

讓我先開始，然後我會請 Brian 談談增益裕度。

And I'd start by just saying that we feel very good about our guide.

首先我想說，我們對我們的導遊感到非常滿意。

And there's a few things that I think are important to just keep in mind when it comes to Q4, you typically expect the fourth quarter to be a little bit smaller than Q3.

我認為，談到第四季時，有幾件事需要牢記，通常預期第四季的規模會比第三季略小。

And when you really think about why that is, primarily it's due to just home buying slowing down a little bit post Labor Day you've got kids going back to school.

而當你真正思考其中原因時，你會發現，主要是因為勞動節後購屋活動有所放緩，孩子們要返校了。

You've got the holiday season.

你已進入假期了。

So mortgage financing is just not typically as top of mind.

因此，抵押融資通常不是人們最關心的問題。

The second thing that I would share is you've seen interest rates tick up a little bit, and that has obviously an impact on mortgage applications.

我想分享的第二件事是，您已經看到利率略有上升，這顯然對抵押貸款申請產生了影響。

And so these two factors can compound and just have an effect on the quarter.

因此，這兩個因素會相互疊加，對本季產生影響。

But at the end of the day, the market size is going to be whatever it is.

但最終，市場規模還是維持不變的。

It's still a big market and our big focus is really just on growing our share with great execution.

它仍然是一個巨大的市場，我們的重點是透過出色的執行力來擴大我們的份額。

And when you just put that together, we definitely believe we have a strong and confident guide.

當你把這些放在一起時，我們確信我們有一個強大而自信的指南。

And I'll also just call out that the guide is 27% higher year-over-year for this quarter.

我還要指出的是，本季的預期營收比去年同期成長了 27%。

And that guide reflects obviously our continued focus on market share gains and just our resilience to be able to grow in any market.

該指南顯然反映了我們對市場佔有率成長的持續關注，以及我們在任何市場中實現成長的韌性。

And then let me ask Brian to comment further.

然後我請布萊恩進一步評論。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Varun.

謝謝，瓦倫。

Yeah, I'll touch on the gain on sale margin piece.

是的，我將談談銷售利潤部分。

We do expect a slight expansion in gain on sale margin in Q4 compared to the third quarter.

我們確實預計第四季的銷售利潤率將較第三季略有擴大。

There's a little bit of conservatism built in there, and that's just typically because we see some competitors do some pricing plays around the holidays.

其中存在一些保守主義，通常是因為我們看到一些競爭對手在假期期間採取一些定價策略。

If you think about it, and you're in their shoes, you have about the same amount of capacity either way and this volume ticks down to Varun's point, every once in a while, we see some pricing pressure there.

如果你考慮一下，並且你處於他們的立場，那麼無論如何，你們的產能都大致相同，並且這個數量會逐漸下降到 Varun 所說的水平，每隔一段時間，我們就會看到一些定價壓力。

So we've considered that in the guide.

因此我們在指南中考慮到了這一點。

And if you kind of just zoom out, we've said for a long time now that we expect gain on sale margins to expand.

如果你稍微放大一點，我們很久以前就說過，我們預期銷售利潤率將會擴大。

That doesn't happen in an exactly linear basis.

這並不是以完全線性的方式發生的。

But we are getting back to levels, particularly on a channel, if I look at direct-to-consumer and partner individually that are really close to the historical healthy levels that we've seen pre pandemic.

但如果我單獨看直接面向消費者和合作夥伴的情況，我們正在恢復到原來的水平，特別是在通路上，這非常接近大流行之前的歷史健康水平。

And just on the volume assumption for the quarter, are you maybe just sort of embedding that, the level of refi or just the current level of interest rates hold for the rest of the quarter.

僅根據本季的交易量假設，您是否可能只是將其嵌入再融資水平或當前利率水平，以維持本季度剩餘時間的水平？

I know the app index for refis down by 50% and total was down about 35% since quarter end last quarter.

我知道再融資的應用指數下降了 50%，自上個季度末以來總計下降了約 35%。

So just curious, are you assuming things maybe get a little bit better or just hold where they are right now?

所以只是好奇，您是否認為情況可能會變得更好一些，還是只是保持目前的狀態？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, Jeff, if we think about what we do when we set the guide, we obviously take into consideration all the information we have up to this point in the quarter.

我的意思是，傑夫，如果我們考慮在製定指南時要做什麼，我們顯然會考慮到本季到目前為止我們掌握的所有資訊。

There's no question about that.

這是毫無疑問的。

It has been a volatile start to the quarter to Varun's comments.

從 Varun 的評論來看，本季的開局非常動盪。

Rates have sort of moved in that opposite direction.

利率已經朝相反的方向變動。

So all of that is baked in.

所以這一切都已經融入其中了。

The MBA applications and we look at that, we look at optimal blue, but the most important thing, if I were to leave you with the takeaway is we truly believe this guide is taking share in the fourth quarter.

我們會查看 MBA 申請，我們會查看最佳藍色，但最重要的是，如果我要留給您總結的話，那就是我們確實相信該指南將在第四季度佔據一席之地。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs.

高盛的瑞安·納什（Ryan Nash）。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

So maybe as we look ahead, industry forecasts are obviously calling for a nice pickup next year in originations, call it, up to 30%.

因此，也許當我們展望未來時，產業預測顯然要求明年的發起量將有一個良好的成長，甚至達到 30%。

And so I wanted to drill in a little bit on your expectations into 2025.

所以我想深入探討您對 2025 年的期望。

Obviously, I'm sure things are fluid, I mean how rates are moving around.

顯然，我確信事情是不斷變化的，我的意思是利率如何變動。

But maybe just curious how you think about the size of the market, how much progress you can make on your market share goals?

但也許只是好奇您如何看待市場規模，您在市佔率目標上能取得多大進展？

And then just given your comments about the $150 billion and not needing to any fixed cost, how do you think about the relationship between revenue and cost growth in an improving mortgage market?

然後，鑑於您關於 1500 億美元且不需要任何固定成本的評論，您如何看待在改善的抵押貸款市場中收入和成本增長之間的關係？

Thanks for the question, Ryan.

謝謝你的提問，Ryan。

I'd start by saying that the mortgage market, obviously, is not easy to predict.

首先我想說，房貸市場顯然不容易預測。

But in general, when you look at multiple factors, our outlook is optimistic.

但整體而言，從多種因素來看，我們的前景是樂觀的。

And there's a few factors that I'll just comment on, and then I'll ask Brian to jump in as well.

我將對幾個因素進行評論，然後我會請 Brian 也參與其中。

And I think the first thing to start with, obviously, is the rate environment.

我認為，首先要考慮的顯然是利率環境。

And there's a multitude of things that go into that.

其中涉及很多因素。

Obviously, things like an unemployment CPI, consumer confidence.

顯然，諸如失業率、CPI、消費者信心等因素。

And in general, those things signal economic health but the reality is inflation is still a part of the system.

總體而言，這些跡象顯示經濟健康，但現實是通貨膨脹仍然是經濟體系的一部分。

And until it's clear that it's working its way out of the system, you can expect that there's going to be a little bit of pressure on the 10-year treasury and then correspondingly, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

直到它明顯地從系統中消失之前，你可以預料到，10 年期國債和 30 年期固定利率抵押貸款將會面臨一些壓力。

The next thing we look at is the housing market.

我們接下來關注的是房地產市場。

Obviously, the housing market is a big part of the GDP.

顯然，房地產市場是GDP的重要組成部分。

And the good thing there is that we're seeing definitely some signs of rejuvenation.

好消息是，我們確實看到了一些復甦的跡象。

You've got more inventory, you've got more homes that are selling at or below list, you got equity at an all-time high.

你擁有更多的庫存，擁有更多以標價或低於標價出售的房屋，你的資產淨值達到了歷史最高水平。

And when you look at housing inventory, we went from 3.4 months to 4.3 months the number of homes listed for sale, that's up 29%, affordability is up 5%.

當您查看房屋庫存時，我們會發現待售房屋數量從 3.4 個月增加到 4.3 個月，增加了 29%，負擔能力上升了 5%。

So some really good things happening there that gives us confidence in '25.

那裡發生的一些非常好的事情讓我們對25年充滿信心。

And then we look at the size of the market.

然後我們來看看市場的規模。

To your point, good things happening there.

正如您所說，那裡發生了好事。

The forecasts are expecting that the market will be up over $2 trillion.

預測顯示市場規模將超過 2 兆美元。

That's up 28% compared to this past year.

與去年相比，這一數字成長了 28%。

And that's still a huge market, right?

這仍然是一個巨大的市場，對嗎？

And so regardless of conditions, there's plenty of share up for grabs.

所以，無論條件如何，都有大量份額可供爭奪。

And then what I would also say is the most important thing we really look at is just our execution, our ability to execute in any market.

我想說的是，我們真正關注的最重要的事情是我們的執行力，以及我們在任何市場中的執行能力。

And that's something that we feel tremendously confident in.

我們對此非常有信心。

And a big part of that is our Superstack and what we believe is a tailwind to be able to execute against our super stack relative to competitors.

其中很大一部分是我們的超級堆疊，我們相信這是一個順風，使我們能夠相對於競爭對手執行超級堆疊。

And so putting all that together, that gives us a lot of optimism for '25 being better than '24, and we know that '24 was certainly better than '23 and that's kind of how we think about our outlook.

綜合所有這些因素，我們非常樂觀地認為 2025 年會比 2024 年更好，而且我們也知道 2024 年肯定比 2023 年更好，這就是我們對前景的看法。

And then on the expense side, I'll ask Brian to jump in.

然後在費用方面，我會請布萊恩參與。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks, Ryan, for the question.

謝謝 Ryan 提出這個問題。

I mean when it comes to operating leverage, I think in the first starting point is think about what we've done this year.

我的意思是，當談到經營槓桿時，我認為第一個起點是想想我們今年做了什麼。

To Varun's point, I do think '24 will be a bit better than '23.

對於 Varun 的觀點，我確實認為 '24 會比 '23 好一點。

But I still think if you look back, we're five years ahead and you look back at '24, I still think it's going to be looked at as a pretty down market in the big scheme of things.

但我仍然認為，如果你回顧過去，我們領先了五年，而如果你回顧24年，我仍然認為從大局來看這將被視為一個相當低迷的市場。

We'll see how the fourth quarter shakes out.

我們將看看第四季度的情況如何。

So all that being said, in every single quarter this year, we printed double-digit EBITDA margins.

總而言之，今年每個季度，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率都達到了兩位數。

If I take the kind of year-to-date three quarters in margin, that's about 20%.

如果我計算今年迄今三個季度的利潤率，那大約是 20%。

And we've done the good work on the cost side over the past couple of years.

過去幾年我們在成本方面做得很好。

We've talked a lot about that.

我們已經討論了很多這個問題。

But what I'm most proud of is the expansion in EBITDA margins is really through top line growth.

但最讓我自豪的是 EBITDA 利潤率的擴大確實是透過營業額成長實現的。

It's been taking share and doing the things that we said we'd do.

它一直在佔據市場份額並做著我們說過要做的事情。

So to Varun's point, if you look ahead to 2025, and you believe that it's going to be healthier, which we do, then 2024 by 20% to 30%, a $2 trillion market is a really healthy market.

因此，正如 Varun 所說，如果你展望 2025 年，並​​且相信它會更加健康，我們也這麼認為，那麼到 2024 年，增長 20% 到 30%，2 兆美元的市場是一個真正健康的市場。

So you believe in some expansion there.

所以你相信那裡會有一些擴張。

And then, of course, our share gain goals that we shared at Investor Day are exactly what we're seeking to achieve.

當然，我們在投資者日分享的份額成長目標正是我們想要實現的。

The third quarter is another example of that, the guide in the fourth quarter keeps us right on track to achieving those share gains.

第三季就是另一個例子，第四季的指南使我們正確地實現了份額成長。

So if I say, hey, the EBITDA margins this year in '24 in a pretty tough market of 20%, a little bit of help from the market and taking share gets us very excited about the opportunity to increase operating leverage next year.

因此，如果我說，嘿，在 2024 年這個相當艱難的市場中，EBITDA 利潤率達到 20%，那麼來自市場的一點幫助和份額的提升就會讓我們對明年提高經營槓桿的機會感到非常興奮。

Got it.

知道了。

Maybe as a follow-up, just thinking about opportunities, Brian, you talked about $70 billion of bulk MSR and flow year-to-date.

也許作為後續問題，只是考慮機會，布萊恩，您談到了今年迄今為止 700 億美元的批量 MSR 和流量。

Maybe just talk as you look ahead to '25, what do you think the bulk purchase market for MSRs look like?

也許只是談談展望 25 年，您認為 MSR 的大量購買市場會是什麼樣子？

And maybe just talk about how much more capacity you have and what is the appetite to continue to add in this area of the business?

也許只是談談您還有多少產能，以及您在這一業務領域繼續擴張的興趣如何？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

So I'll start here, and Varun, you may want to add in.

因此我就從這裡開始，Varun，你可能想添加進來。

But it's definitely an area that we're very excited about.

但這絕對是一個令我們非常興奮的領域。

When we talked about our capital waterfall, and we talked about being interested in deploying capital, MSRs still remain right at the top.

當我們談論我們的資本瀑布並談到對部署資本的興趣時，MSR 仍然位於最頂端。

It's right in our bread and butter.

這與我們的生活息息相關。

You mentioned the $70 billion.

您提到了 700 億美元。

One of the things I'm most excited about and you guys have all seen the news.

這是我最興奮的事情之一，你們也都看到了這個新聞。

We're very proud of this Annaly deal.

我們對與 Annaly 的此次交易感到非常自豪。

Annaly is a world-class asset manager and in our business, this flywheel effect that we have been driving for decades now is really impressive, 85% recapture rates.

Annaly 是世界一流的資產管理公司，在我們的業務中，我們幾十年來一直推動的飛輪效應確實令人印象深刻，回收率高達 85%。

We're collecting the servicing cash flows very efficiently.

我們正在非常有效率地收集服務現金流。

But when we really think about the revenue opportunity of the next loan compared to the cash flows you're collecting, it's 20 times that.

但當我們真正考慮下一筆貸款的收入機會與您所收集的現金流相比時，它是這個數字的 20 倍。

So I expect us to continue to double down there on those opportunities, both from the bulk acquisition market, but think the sub-servicing aspect is also very interesting to us because if you were in a seat where you didn't have an in-house origination capability, but you are a really good asset manager, protecting those cash flows has to be your number 1 priority.

因此，我希望我們能夠繼續加倍努力抓住這些機會，無論是從批量收購市場，還是從次級服務方面，對我們來說也非常有趣，因為如果你沒有內部發起能力，但你是一個非常優秀的資產管理者，保護這些現金流必須是你的首要任務。

And if you're thinking about choosing between sub-servicers, you have one sitting here that has a JV.

如果你正在考慮在子服務商之間進行選擇，這裡有一家擁有合資企業的子服務商。

Power multiple year winning experience and does it really good.

Power 擁有多年的獲勝經驗並且確實表現優異。

And then you also have something that I don't think others can offer, which is this recapture rate.

而且你還擁有我認為別人無法提供的東西，那就是回收率。

And the recapture rate is the thing that allows an asset manager to protect again CPR or protect against prepayment risk.

回收率可以讓資產管理者再次保護 CPR 或防範提前還款風險。

So I expect it to be a big part of our strategy going into '25.

因此我預計它將成為我們25年策略的重要組成部分。

I would just add that this example with MSRs and extensibility is just showcasing the power of the platform.

我只想補充一點，這個具有 MSR 和可擴展性的例子只是展示了該平台的強大功能。

And it's just something that really illustrates in a cool way how we scale beyond our four walls because we've earned the right to take these capabilities to benefit others like Annaly.

這只是以一種很酷的方式說明了我們如何超越自我，因為我們贏得了利用這些能力造福其他人（例如 Annaly）的權利。

You'll also see us doing the same thing with integrating our technology as a platform to serve as a mortgage platform for banks.

您還會看到我們在做同樣的事情，將我們的技術整合為一個平​​台，為銀行提供抵押貸款平台。

The same platform is being extended to create value for brokers via TPO.

同一平台正在擴展，透過 TPO 為經紀人創造價值。

And then on top of that, as Brian talked about, these recapture capabilities are only going to get better with investments in technology, AI, insights, notifications, CRM capabilities, mobile, data-driven personalization and as we invest in our platform, each of the parties that we extend the capabilities to become beneficiaries of that innovation.

除此之外，正如 Brian 所說，這些重新捕獲功能只會隨著對技術、人工智慧、洞察力、通知、 CRM 功能、行動、數據驅動的個人化的投資而變得更好，並且隨著我們對平台的投資，我們擴展功能的每一方都將成為該創新的受益者。

And so really, the power of that platform really lies in its extensibility and the idea that you can write something once, you can run it anywhere, benefit multiple parties is something that we're very excited about.

所以，該平台的真正強大之處在於它的可擴展性，而「只需編寫一次，就可以在任何地方運行，並使多方受益」的想法令我們感到非常興奮。

Tanks for the color, guys.

大家，謝謝你們的顏色。

Mark DeVries from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries)。

Brian touched on this at a high level.

布萊恩在高層談到了這一點。

But I was hoping to get a little more detail on how your rate locks moved during the period in the quarter when mortgage rates were down close to 6%, both purchase and refi and how they moved is redheaded back up?

但我希望獲得更詳細的信息，了解在本季度抵押貸款利率下降近 6% 期間，您的利率鎖定如何變動，包括購買和再融資，以及它們如何回升？

And also any context around kind of how gain-on-sale margins compared in the busier period versus slower periods?

還有，繁忙時期和清淡時期的銷售利潤率有何不同？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

So I think there was a two-week window in the month of September.

所以我認為九月有兩週的時間。

And I think that's what you're referring to, where mortgage rates came down to the low 6s.

我想這就是您所指的，抵押貸款利率降至 6% 以下。

And I think it's such a good case study into our strategy at work.

我認為這是我們工作策略的一個很好的案例。

There were two really notable things.

有兩件非常值得注意的事情。

One, first is when rates get down into the low 6s it proved that we are off to the races.

首先，當利率降至 6% 以下時，就證明我們已經開始競爭了。

You have about two years of mortgage production north of that.

你們在北部有大約兩年的抵押貸款生產。

So there's definitely a bunch of consumers that can benefit from a rate and term refinance and we saw that.

因此，確實有許多消費者可以從利率和期限再融資中受益，我們看到了這一點。

So that's the first thing to note is that that's your sort of menosaline there as you get into those low 6s, and it's -- you're off to the races.

因此，首先要注意的是，當您的血糖達到 6 以下時，那就是您的半胱氨酸水平，然後 — — 您就可以開始比賽了。

But the second thing is, if you think about how to capture that opportunity, that gives us a bunch of proof points to what we're building and how impactful it is because -- in this case, you had a very, very short window with very high-intent consumers and a ton of consumer demand.

但第二件事是，如果你思考如何抓住這個機會，這會為我們提供大量證據來證明我們正在建立的東西以及它的影響有多大，因為——在這種情況下，你有一個非常非常短暫的時間窗口，有非常有意圖的消費者和大量的消費者需求。

So the ability to scale up very quickly and capture that is exactly what differentiates us between us and our competitors.

因此，快速擴大規模並抓住這一機會的能力正是我們與競爭對手的差異。

If you think about it, it's not just about being able to handle it from a processing, underwriting and closing perspective, but obviously, that's very important because the client coming in with high demand and a client coming in with low demand expects the same level of service, the same closing time.

如果你仔細想想，這不僅僅是從處理、承保和結算的角度來處理，但顯然，這非常重要，因為需求量大的客戶和需求量小的客戶期望獲得相同水平的服務、相同的結算時間。

So that is important.

所以這很重要。

But it's also just about taking that demand and effectively allocating it to your bankers and keeping your bankers very, very efficient and productive because the more clients they can interact with and engage with during that very short window to take advantage of it, the better off the client is going to be because they're going to be saving money and also the better off we are because we're going to capture more share during that period.

但這也只是為了滿足這種需求並有效地將其分配給您的銀行家，並讓您的銀行家非常有效率和富有成效，因為他們在那段非常短暫的時間裡能夠與越多的客戶互動和接觸以利用它，客戶的狀況就會越好，因為他們將節省資金，而我們對我們的情況也越好，因為我們將在那段時期內獲得更多的份額。

So it was actually very interesting.

所以這實際上非常有趣。

Of course, we didn't plan on it.

當然，我們並沒有計劃這麼做。

It was sort of leading up to the Fed meeting.

這有點像是聯準會會議前夕的事。

And we know what happened after that the Fed cut 50 basis points, and then rates went up.

我們知道聯準會降息 50 個基點之後發生了什麼，然後利率上升。

But it did prove to us that, one, there are a ton of consumers in the money at that rate.

但它確實向我們證明：第一，以這個利率，有大量消費者有錢。

And the last thing I'll sort of leave you with there, Mark, is I think just the change in the consumer is interesting because if the pandemic taught us one thing, there were clients that have financed multiple times over a couple year period.

馬克，我要告訴你的最後一件事是，我認為消費者的變化很有趣，因為如果這場疫情教會了我們一件事，那就是有些客戶在幾年內進行了多次融資。

So today, fast forward, when consumers are getting a mortgage, they're truly in the mindset of -- I'm not going to have -- I may have this house for a long time but I'm not going to have this rate for a long time.

所以今天，當消費者獲得抵押貸款時，他們真正的想法是——我不會——我可能會長期擁有這棟房子，但我不會長期享受這個利率。

And so the interesting part about it is during that couple of week window, there's a lot of headlines around the 10-year treasury and how mortgage rates are moving.

有趣的是，在這幾週的時間裡，有許多關於 10 年期公債和抵押貸款利率走勢的頭條新聞。

And we got kind ton of inbound from our clients, both, of course, from our service clients, which you'd expect, but just from clients that had mortgages from other companies because the propensity for clients to transact now and their sensitivity to rates, I would argue is at an all-time high.

我們收到了大量來自客戶的信息，當然，這既包括我們服務客戶的信息，也包括從其他公司獲得抵押貸款的客戶的信息，因為我認為，現在客戶進行交易的傾向及其對利率的敏感度達到了歷史最高水平。

The only thing I would just add is that you asked a little bit about capacity, Mark.

我只想補充一點，馬克，你問了一些關於容量的問題。

And this is why we're so obsessed with AI.

這就是我們如此痴迷人工智慧的原因。

And the investments that we've made in Rocket Logic, which is our proprietary LOS, is driving big efficiency gains.

我們對 Rocket Logic（我們的專有 LOS）的投資正在大幅提高效率。

We're on track to save our team members, 800,000 hours annually, that's up 14% in just two months.

我們預計每年為團隊成員節省 80 萬小時，僅兩個月就節省了 14％。

So -- and it's almost $30 million in savings.

所以 — — 這節省了近 3000 萬美元。

And we're achieving that while keeping, obviously, our fixed cost roughly the same.

而且我們在實現這一目標的同時，顯然保持了固定成本大致相同。

And so just by the reason we're obsessed with AI's because when you think about all of the bread and butter aspects of our business, analyzing client interactions, automating underwriting, applying models to capital market infrastructure, automating document processing, credit modeling, appraisal reviews.

我們沉迷於人工智慧的原因在於，當你考慮到我們業務的所有基本面向時，分析客戶互動、自動化核保、將模型應用於資本市場基礎設施​​、自動化文件處理、信用建模、評估審查。

These are all the capabilities that make the mortgage business work, and they're all benefiting from the implementation of AI.

這些都是使抵押貸款業務正常運作的能力，它們都受益於人工智慧的實施。

And so just continuing to invest in that.

因此我們會繼續對此進行投資。

I mean this is why we've spent upwards of $0.5 billion over the past five years. on this investment.

我的意思是這就是為什麼我們在過去五年裡花費了超過 5 億美元。關於這項投資。

And we've made progress.

我們已經取得了進展。

We will continue to do so, and we think there's significantly more gains to be had in the future as well.

我們將繼續這樣做，我們認為未來還會有更多的收益。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Derek Sommers from Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Derek Sommers。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

嘿，大家下午好。

I was wondering if you could share any incremental detail on the Annaly partnerships, maybe portfolio characteristics or how the recapture economic share is going to work?

我想知道您是否可以分享有關 Annaly 合作夥伴關係的任何細節，也許是投資組合特徵或重新奪回經濟份額將如何運作？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Derek.

謝謝你的提問，德里克。

We don't disclose, obviously, the economics of our partnerships.

顯然，我們不會揭露合作關係的經濟狀況。

But I think it's safe to say when you look at the things that Annaly is good at being a great world-class asset manager, protecting against prepayments is very important to us, and that's where we come in.

但我認為可以肯定地說，當你看到 Annaly 作為世界級資產管理公司所擅長的事情時，防止提前還款對我們來說非常重要，這就是我們的優勢所在。

So clearly, there's a sub-servicing agreement as you'd expect, we do that very efficiently.

很明顯，正如您所期望的，存在一個分包服務協議，我們會非常有效率地完成這項工作。

If you just look at our own servicing.

如果您只看我們自己的服務。

But I think the more interesting part about this deal is really to recapture opportunities.

但我認為這筆交易更有趣的部分實際上是重新獲得機會。

And we think that's the super power that we can offer.

我們認為這就是我們可以提供的超能力。

So we're happy to do that for Annaly.

所以我們很高興為 Annaly 做到這一點。

It truly makes a win-win with the partnerships.

這真正實現了合作夥伴的雙贏。

And if you think about it, there's economics on the sub-servicing side, and then, of course, there's economics on the recapture side.

如果你仔細想想，你會發現在子服務方面有經濟學，當然在重新捕獲方面也有經濟學。

So it's really bringing two great firms together and sort of solving our challenge of, hey, we need more servicing, and we -- it's a great capital light way to do it.

因此，這實際上是將兩家偉大的公司聯合在一起，並解決了我們的挑戰，嘿，我們需要更多的服務，而且我們 - 這是一種很好的輕資本方式。

And their challenge of, hey, we have a lot of servicing, but we have to protect against it.

他們的挑戰是，嘿，我們有很多服務，但我們必須防止這種情況發生。

So it's truly a win-win.

所以這確實是一個雙贏的局面。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just to change gears for a second -- on second lien products.

然後我們換個話題──討論第二留置權產品。

What kind of behavior are you seeing with the consumer there?

您看到那裡的消費者有什麼樣的行為？

Are you viewing this product as potentially interest rate agnostic?

您是否認為該產品可能與利率無關？

I can start and then Varun you might want to add too.

我可以開始，然後 Varun 你可能也想添加。

Yes, I think there's a lot of room to run in that product.

是的，我認為該產品有很大的發展空間。

There's no question about it.

毫無疑問。

If you just kind of study the note rates of all the mortgages outstanding, there is definitely a chunk that's north of 6.

如果你研究所有未償還抵押貸款的票據利率，肯定有一個部分超過了 6。

And as we just kind of touched on is available for rate and term refinance with just a little bit of rate movement.

正如我們剛才提到的，利率和期限再融資只需稍微變動。

But of course, there's another big chunk that's 3% -- 3.5% out there.

但當然，還有另一大塊，佔3%到3.5%。

And likely will remain out there for quite some time unless the homeowners is planning on moving.

除非房主計劃搬家，否則它們很可能會在那裡停留很長一段時間。

So if you think about it for them, the home equity product is a great product, and it's going to make a lot of sense for a long time.

所以如果你為他們考慮的話，房屋淨值產品是一個很棒的產品，而且在很長一段時間內都會很有意義。

I do think we saw in that couple of week period during the quarter where rate and term refinances become back in favor and even to some extent, cash out can start making more sense as rates start touching 6%.

我確實認為，我們在本季的那幾週內看到，利率和期限再融資重新受到青睞，甚至在某種程度上，當利率開始觸及 6% 時，套現開始變得更有意義。

So and again, we're sort of happy to do that product for a client where it makes sense as well.

所以，我們很高興能為客戶製作該產品，這也是有意義的。

But generally speaking, we think the client makes sense for a lot of consumers out there, particularly those consumers that are sitting on those very low rates.

但整體而言，我們認為客戶端對許多消費者來說都是有意義的，特別是那些享受非常低利率的消費者。

And by the way, the thing we talk about a lot internally is by layering on that second, makes a ton of sense for the client, but it does bring up the weighted average note rate of the two loans.

順便說一句，我們內部經常討論的是，透過分層處理第二部分，這對客戶來說很有意義，但它確實提高了兩筆貸款的加權平均票據利率。

And then if and when rates do move a little bit, you have an interesting refinance opportunity in terms of the consolidation of those two leads.

然後，如果利率確實略有變動，那麼從合併這兩個線索來看，您將有一個有趣的再融資機會。

Yeah.

是的。

I would just add that, in general, our approach is to innovate and meet our clients where they are.

我想補充一點，總的來說，我們的方法是創新並滿足客戶的需求。

And so if we see a market opportunity, we will build products and services to meet our clients there.

因此，如果我們看到市場機會，我們就會打造產品和服務來滿足客戶的需求。

And so there's room to grow there, but this is an example of where we just really focus on delivering value to our clients.

因此，這裡還有成長空間，但這只是我們真正專注於為客戶提供價值的一個例子。

And then the other thing I would also call out is that it's important that we build products not just for our existing client base, but also for our new client base.

我想說的另一件事是，我們打造的產品不僅要滿足現有客戶群的需求，還要滿足新客戶群的需求，這一點很重要。

What we've seen is for products like this, this actually attracts clients to the Rocket brand and to the Rocket franchise.

我們看到，像這樣的產品實際上吸引了客戶關注 Rocket 品牌和 Rocket 特許經營權。

And so by bringing them in, we can then offer them additional products and services that allow us to become their lender for life.

因此，透過吸引他們，我們就可以為他們提供額外的產品和服務，讓我們成為他們終身的貸款人。

And that's a really great thing about this product offering.

這正是這款產品的一大亮點。

Doug Harter from UBS.

瑞銀的道格·哈特（Doug Harter）。

Just hoping we could talk about expenses and just take it from a different angle.

只是希望我們可以談論費用並從不同的角度來看待它。

Given the capacity, you said of about $150 billion, is there opportunity given the outlook for volumes to take out fixed cost, even if that means that, that capacity comes down somewhat?

考慮到您所說的約 1500 億美元的產能，考慮到產量前景，是否有機會降低固定成本，即使這意味著產能會下降？

Thanks for the question, Doug.

謝謝你的提問，道格。

I mean, the way I'd answer that is our primary focus is capturing share and growing into the market.

我的意思是，我的回答是，我們的主要關注點是佔領市場份額並發展市場。

We just talked about our views on 2025.

我們剛才談到了對2025年的看法。

And admittedly, Q4 has been a bit more volatile than anyone would like, but still very bullish on the 2025 outlook being higher.

無可否認，第四季的波動性比任何人想像的都要大，但我們對 2025 年的前景仍非常看好。

So right now, our focus is being able to continue to capture share, grow into a larger market and do it with a relatively flat fixed cost base.

因此現在，我們的重點是能夠繼續佔領市場份額、發展到更大的市場，並以相對平穩的固定成本基礎來實現這一目標。

And what that does is it really just increases operating leverage.

這樣做其實只是增加了經營槓桿。

Even if I look at just the numbers from Q2 to Q3.

即使我只看第二季至第三季的數字。

I think Q2 -- or excuse me, Q3 expenses were up at mid-3% from Q2.

我認為第二季度——或者不好意思，第三季的支出較第二季上漲了 3% 左右。

But if I just look at on a rate lock basis, volume was up 20%.

但如果我只是從利率鎖定的角度來看，交易量就漲了 20%。

So you can see us doing exactly what we said we'd do in terms of building that operating leverage.

因此，您可以看到，在建立經營槓桿方面，我們確實在做我們說過要做的事情。

Of course, it provides option value.

當然，它提供了選擇價值。

There's no question for different markets.

對於不同的市場來說，不存在任何問題。

But our goal in life here is to avoid the traditional yo-yo effect of the mortgage market.

但我們目前的目標是避免抵押貸款市場傳統的溜溜球效應。

And if you think about how most people grow capacity, they do it through hiring, and we will hire some people, too.

如果你想想大多數人是如何擴大產能的，他們是透過招募來實現的，我們也會招募一些人。

We have the best team members in the business and the best loan officers in the business.

我們擁有業內最優秀的團隊成員和最優秀的貸款人員。

But that being said, hiring is not always the most efficient way for anything, it takes a long time.

但話雖如此，招募並不總是最有效的方式，它需要很長時間。

You have to recruit people, you have to train people, you have to license people.

你必須招募人才，你必須培訓人才，你必須給人才頒發許可證。

So you need a very long runway.

所以你需要一條很長的跑道。

That two-week period in the third quarter was such a good example of where you can hire someone.

第三季的那兩週就是一個很好的例子，可以說明何時可以僱用某人。

There is no chance.

沒有機會。

So if that was your only way to increase capacity and maybe that with a little bit of overtime, you were going to miss out a really big opportunity.

所以，如果這是你增加產能的唯一方法，可能還需要加班，那麼你將會錯失一個真正大的機會。

So I think the simplest way I can say it is, our focus is growth.

所以我認為最簡單的說法就是，我們的重點是成長。

And our focus is increasing operating leverage.

我們的重點是提高營運槓桿。

The good news is -- the most folks believe '25 is going to be better, and we absolutely believe we'll take share.

好消息是——大多數人相信 25 年會更好，而我們絕對相信我們將獲得份額。

So we expect growth from both of those angles.

因此，我們預計這兩個角度都會實現成長。

Appreciate that, Brian.

非常感謝，布萊恩。

I guess how do you think about recognizing the importance of having capacity to take advantage of those pockets like you saw in 3Q.

我想，您如何看待認識到擁有利用這些資源的能力的重要性，就像您在第三季度看到的那樣。

How do you think about what is the right level of kind of spare capacity versus kind of having too much capacity for the market opportunity even factoring in the growth ambitions?

即使考慮到成長目標，您如何看待適當的閒置產能水準和對於市場機會而言過多的產能？

I would just say, Doug, that I think what we have right now is the perfect capacity.

我只想說，道格，我認為我們現在擁有的是完美的產能。

And we're not looking to sort of expand or detract.

我們並不希望擴大或縮小。

And at the end of the day, it's a huge market our team members provide incredible value and they're going to become very scaled and successful as a result of the investments that we're making in technology.

最終，這是一個巨大的市場，我們的團隊成員提供了不可思議的價值，而且由於我們在技術方面的投資，他們的規模將變得非常大，而且非常成功。

And so we feel really good about our capacity.

因此，我們對我們的能力感到非常滿意。

We think that it will allow us to take share.

我們認為這將使我們獲得份額。

We think it will allow us to grow, especially as the impact of technology continues to make our team members more and more efficient.

我們認為它將使我們成長，特別是隨著科技的影響不斷使我們的團隊成員變得越來越有效率。

It's a big market.

這是一個很大的市場。

We're very ambitious about our growth aspirations.

我們對於自己的成長目標非常有遠大抱負。

And so we feel really good about where we are.

我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

Great.

偉大的。

I appreciate the answers.

我很感激您的回答。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Varun Krishna for closing remarks.

現在我會把電話轉回給 Varun Krishna，請他作結束語。

Well, thank you, everyone, for listening to our call.

好吧，謝謝大家聆聽我們的電話。

We're excited, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

我們非常興奮，並期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。