RH (RH) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

There's pieces that furnish a home. And those that define it. There are places you visit. And those you remember. There are spaces you move through, and those that move you.

有些物件能佈置一個家。也有些能定義它。有些地方你會造訪。也有些你會銘記。有些空間你穿行其中，而有些空間會觸動你。

Welcome to The world of RH. Albert Einstein's three rules of work: out of clutter, find simplicity, from discord, find harmony in the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity. Seem especially relevant at this moment. We're compounding clutter from tariffs, global discord as a result of war, and the most dire housing market in decades can make it difficult to separate the signal from the noise.

歡迎來到 RH 的世界。愛因斯坦的三條工作法則：從雜亂中找出簡單，從不和諧中找出和諧，在困難的中心，蘊藏著機會。在此刻尤其貼切。關稅帶來的雜亂正在疊加，戰爭造成的全球失序加劇，而數十年來最嚴峻的房市，讓人更難從噪音中辨識訊號。

It's important to remember necessity is the mother of invention. And our most important innovations were -- during the most uncertain times. Transforming a nearly bankrupt restoration hardware into RH, the leading luxury home brand in North America was not a feat for the faint of heart. While the external challenges are somewhat familiar, our internal opportunities are massively different. We're not closing stores and fighting to survive. We're building a never seen before brand that's positioned to thrive.

重要的是要記住：需要是發明之母。而我們最重要的創新，往往發生在最不確定的時期。把一家幾近破產的 Restoration Hardware 轉型為 RH——北美領先的奢華家居品牌——絕非膽小者可為。雖然外部挑戰有些似曾相識，但我們內部的機會已截然不同、規模巨大。我們不再是關店求生。我們正在打造一個前所未見、並且具備蓬勃成長定位的品牌。

Before we get into the details of our strategy, let's start with a few facts that you quiet some of the noise. In 2025, RH achieved revenue growth of 8% and two year growth of 15% far outpacing our furniture industry peers by 8 to 30 points. Adjusted EBITDA reached $597 million, or 17.3% of revenues versus $539 million or 16.9% of revenues in 2024.

在深入我們的策略細節之前，先從幾個事實開始，讓你安靜一些噪音。2025 年，RH 實現 8% 的營收成長，兩年累計成長 15%，較家具產業同業高出 8 到 30 個百分點。調整後 EBITDA 達 5.97 億美元，佔營收 17.3%，相較 2024 年的 5.39 億美元（佔營收 16.9%）。

Free cash flow of $252 million versus negative free cash flow of $214 million in 2024, increase of $466 million year-over-year. Those results were despite 2025 being our peak investment year with $289 million of adjusted CapEx to support our global expansion plus an additional $37 million to purchase the Michael Taylor formations and Dennis & Leen brands to support the launch of our new concept, our estates, strong performance considering the unusual circumstances.

自由現金流為 2.52 億美元，相較 2024 年為負 2.14 億美元，年增 4.66 億美元。即便 2025 年是我們投資高峰年，為支持全球擴張投入 2.89 億美元的調整後資本支出（CapEx），另加 3,700 萬美元收購 Michael Taylor、Formations 與 Dennis & Leen 品牌，以支持我們新概念 RH Estates 的推出，在這些不尋常情況下仍展現強勁表現。

Let me shift your focus to our strategy and how we expect our growth to accelerate over the next several years. We believe there are those with taste and no scale, and those with scale and no taste. And the idea of scaling taste is large and far-reaching. We believe our goal to position RH as the arbiter of taste for the home will prove to be both disruptive and lucrative as we continue our quest at building one of the most admired brands in the world. We like to use a simple question to frame our significant opportunity.

接著我把焦點轉向我們的策略，以及我們預期未來幾年如何加速成長。我們相信，有些人有品味但沒有規模；也有些人有規模但沒有品味。而「把品味規模化」這個想法，宏大且影響深遠。我們相信，將 RH 定位為家居品味的仲裁者（arbiter of taste），將在我們持續打造全球最受推崇品牌之一的征途上，同時具備顛覆性與高獲利性。我們喜歡用一個簡單的問題來框定我們重大的機會。

who is the home brand for the luxury customer, the LVMH, Hermes, Cartier or Cucinelli customer, RH has curated the most compelling collection presented in the most inspiring spaces in the world. Our brand attracts the leading designers, artisans and manufacturers scaling and rendering their work more valuable across our growing global platform.

誰才是奢華客群的家居品牌——也就是 LVMH、Hermès、Cartier 或 Cucinelli 的客戶所屬意的家居品牌？RH 已策展出最具吸引力的系列，並在全球最具啟發性的空間中呈現。我們的品牌吸引頂尖設計師、工匠與製造商，透過我們不斷成長的全球平台擴大規模，並讓其作品更具價值。

Our product is both categorically and stylistically dominant, enabling RH to address the largest market of any brand of its kind. We curate across the seven major product categories: furniture, upholstery, outdoor, lighting linens, rugs and decor, and we integrate across the three dominant product styles, traditional, contemporary and modern, which we refer to as RH Estates, or RH Interiors and RH Modern.

我們的產品在品類與風格上都具主導地位，使 RH 能觸及同類品牌中最大的市場。我們在七大主要產品品類中策展：家具、軟裝（upholstery）、戶外、照明、床品（linens）、地毯與裝飾（decor）；並整合三大主流風格：傳統、當代與現代，我們分別稱之為 RH Estates、RH Interiors 與 RH Modern。

RH Estates our newest brand extension, launching this spring. We'll address the traditional market where the RH brand is currently underpenetrated. 60% of luxury homes feature classic or traditional architecture, which influences the majority of furniture purchasing behavior.

RH Estates 是我們最新的品牌延伸，將於今年春季推出。我們將切入傳統市場，而 RH 品牌目前在該市場的滲透率仍偏低。60% 的奢華住宅採用古典或傳統建築風格，這也影響了大多數家具的購買行為。

RH Estates will feature the introduction of RH Bespoke Furniture, customizable collections from our recently acquired Michael Taylor, Joseph Jeup, formations and Dennis & Leen to the trade brands. RH Estates will also include the introduction of RH Couture Upholstery by Dmitry & Co, tailor-made sofas, sectionals and chairs of arguably the highest quality upholstery available anywhere in the world, designers will be able to order custom made sizes and finishes plus specified COM fabrics.

RH Estates 將推出 RH Bespoke Furniture：來自我們近期收購的 Michael Taylor、Joseph Jeup、Formations 與 Dennis & Leen 等 trade 品牌的可客製化系列。RH Estates 也將推出由 Dmitry & Co 打造的 RH Couture Upholstery：量身訂製的沙發、組合式沙發（sectionals）與椅款，堪稱全球任何地方都屬最高等級的軟裝品質之一；設計師可訂製尺寸與表面處理，並可指定 COM（客供布料）面料。

RH Bespoke Furniture and RH Couture Upholstery will enable interior design firms to now specify RH for their most discerning clients and custom projects. RH Estates also include collections from many of the most talented designers and artisans in our industry.

RH Bespoke Furniture 與 RH Couture Upholstery 將使室內設計公司如今能在最挑剔的客戶與客製專案中指定使用 RH。RH Estates 也包含我們產業中多位最具才華的設計師與工匠的系列作品。

Let's take a look at some of their work.

讓我們看看他們的一些作品。

(video playing)

(影片播放中)

RH Estates will premiere at the opening of RH Milan, the gallery on Corso Venezia, a 70,000 sq ft former palace during Salone, the largest design show in the world, with an estimated 500,000 visitors descending on the city that week. The launch of RH Estates will include a dedicated source book mailing mid-May, an international advertising campaign, and freestanding estates galleries in Greenwich, Connecticut, and the San Francisco Design District opening early summer, and the West Hollywood Design District opening in 2027.

RH Estates 將於 RH Milan 開幕時首度亮相；該館位於 Corso Venezia，是一座 70,000 平方英尺的前宮殿，並將在 Salone（全球最大設計展）期間登場，預估當週將有約 50 萬名訪客湧入城市。RH Estates 的上市將包含：5 月中旬寄送專屬型錄（source book）、一場國際廣告活動，以及位於康乃狄克州格林威治（Greenwich）與舊金山設計區（San Francisco Design District）的獨立 Estates 藝廊於初夏開幕；西好萊塢設計區（West Hollywood Design District）則預計於 2027 年開幕。

We believe RH Estates will become our largest and highest margin brand extension, driving significant growth over the next several years. Let me shift your attention to our multidimensional physical-first global ecosystem.

我們相信 RH Estates 將成為我們規模最大、毛利率最高的品牌延伸，並在未來幾年帶動顯著成長。接著把注意力轉向我們多維度、以實體為先（physical-first）的全球生態系。

The world of our age that goes far beyond a typical multichannel approach, inspiring customers to dream, design, dine travel and live in a world thoughtfully curated by RH, creating an emotional connection unlike any other brand in our industry.

這是一個遠超典型全通路（multichannel）方法的世界，啟發顧客在 RH 精心策展的世界裡去夢想、設計、用餐、旅行與生活，建立我們產業中任何其他品牌都難以比擬的情感連結。

The question we often are asked is why physical first in a digital world. Let me explain. Furniture remains the least digitized large retail category with an 80-20 store online split, with luxury furniture estimated to be as high as 95.5%. Why do e-stores still dominate?

我們常被問到的問題是：在數位世界裡，為什麼要以實體為先？讓我解釋。家具仍是大型零售品類中數位化程度最低的一類，門市與線上的占比約為 80/20；而奢華家具的門市占比估計高達 95%。為什麼實體門市仍占主導？

Comfort, scale, finish and quality are hard to judge online. Even when customers purchase on a website, most experienced the product in a store. We believe the physical manifestation of a brand will continue to be significantly more valuable than an invisible online way. We also believe most retail stores are archaic windowless boxes that lack any sense of humanity. That's why we don't build retail stores.

舒適度、尺度、表面處理與品質很難在線上判斷。即使顧客在網站上購買，多數也曾在門市體驗過產品。我們相信，品牌的實體呈現將持續比「看不見的線上方式」更有價值。我們也相信，多數零售店仍是過時、無窗的盒子，缺乏人性。這就是為什麼我們不蓋零售店。

We create inspiring spaces. Spaces that are a reflection of human design, a study of balanced symsymmetry that creates harmony. Spaces that blur the lines between residential and retail, indoors and outdoors, home and hospitality, spaces with garden courtyard, rooftop restaurants, wine and barista bars.

我們打造的是啟發人心的空間。這些空間反映人類設計，是對平衡對稱（symmetry）的研究，創造和諧。這些空間模糊住宅與零售、室內與室外、家與款待（hospitality）之間的界線——擁有花園庭院、屋頂餐廳、葡萄酒吧與咖啡師吧台。

Spaces that activate all of the senses in spaces that cannot be replicated online. While most have been closing or shrinking the size of the we've been building some of the largest and most immersive spaces in the history of our industry. Let's take a look at our most recent work.

這些空間能啟動所有感官，是線上無法複製的體驗。當多數同業關店或縮小規模時，我們卻在打造本產業史上最大、最沉浸式的一些空間。讓我們看看我們最新的作品。

(video playing)

(影片播放中)

We believe our investments in building completely unique, immersive experiences in Paris, Milan and London, we'll set the stage for RH to become a truly global luxury brand. It's important to understand that there are several strategically significant businesses embedded in our galleries, including RH Interior Design, where we become the largest residential interior design firm in the world. with projects from San Francisco to Sydney, Los Angeles to London, Miami at Milan and Dallas to Dubai.

我們相信，在巴黎、米蘭與倫敦打造完全獨特、沉浸式體驗的投資，將為 RH 成為真正的全球奢華品牌奠定舞台。重要的是要理解：在我們的藝廊中嵌入了數個具策略意義的業務，包括 RH Interior Design——我們正成為全球最大的住宅室內設計公司，專案遍及舊金山到雪梨、洛杉磯到倫敦、邁阿密到米蘭，以及達拉斯到杜拜。

We offer design services, including interior architecture, landscape architecture, art net curation and turnkey installations. Another important business embedded in our galleries is RH to the trade, a specialized team that calls on services and supports interior design firms assisting in the design, curation delivery and installation of many of their projects.

我們提供設計服務，包括室內建築、景觀建築、藝術網絡策展以及交鑰匙安裝服務。我們畫廊中另一項重要的內嵌業務是 RH to the trade，這是一支專業團隊，為室內設計公司提供服務與支援，協助其眾多專案的設計、策展、交付與安裝。

RH hospitality operates beautifully integrated restaurants, wine and barista bars in our galleries that generate significant traffic and brand awareness. While our galleries might see several hundred customers per week, our restaurants feed several thousand.

RH 餐飲業務在我們的畫廊內營運高度整合的餐廳、葡萄酒吧與咖啡師吧台，帶來可觀的人流與品牌知名度。我們的畫廊每週可能接待數百位顧客，而我們的餐廳則服務數千人。

With 26 restaurants in operation today and are scheduled to reach 40 by the end of 2027, RH is one of only seven globally owned and operated luxury restaurant brands with 20 or more locations worldwide. We believe our galleries create a unique competitive advantage that will likely never be duplicated in our lifetime.

目前我們有 26 間餐廳在營運，並預計於 2027 年底達到 40 間；RH 是全球僅有的七個自有並自營、且在全球擁有 20 個以上據點的奢華餐廳品牌之一。我們相信，我們的畫廊創造了獨特的競爭優勢，這種優勢很可能在我們有生之年都不會被複製。

As the cost of construction at the luxury level has doubled post COVID. To address that challenge, we've developed several immersive new gallery concepts that will enable us to scale in a faster and more capital-efficient manner. The first, the most revolutionary is what we call an RH design compound currently in development in Naples, Miami and Walnut Creek, a compound is six to eight independent buildings connected by beautifully landscaped garden courtyards with a sun-filled atrium restaurant anchoring the project.

由於 COVID 之後奢華等級的建造成本已翻倍。為了因應這項挑戰，我們開發了數個沉浸式的新畫廊概念，使我們能以更快且更具資本效率的方式擴張。第一個、也是最具革命性的概念，是我們稱之為 RH 設計園區（RH design compound）的模式，目前正在那不勒斯、邁阿密與核桃溪（Walnut Creek）開發中；該園區由 6 至 8 棟獨立建築組成，透過景觀優美的花園庭院相連，並以一間陽光充沛的中庭餐廳作為整體專案的核心。

Due to the absence of multiple stories that require steel structures, grand staircases, elevators, complex mechanical systems and long development time lines. we believe we can build design compounds significantly faster and more capital efficient than our prior design galleries.

由於不需要多層樓結構所需的鋼構、宏偉樓梯、電梯、複雜機電系統以及漫長的開發時程，我們相信相較於過往的設計畫廊，我們能以顯著更快且更具資本效率的方式建造設計園區。

Another new approach to deploying the RH brand in a faster and more capital-efficient manner is what we call a design ecosystem, currently under construction in Greenwich and Palm Desert and in the development process in West Hollywood Design District, an ecosystem is a multi-building brand presence on a street, in a neighborhood, design district or shopping center.

另一種以更快且更具資本效率方式部署 RH 品牌的新方法，是我們稱之為「設計生態系」（design ecosystem）的模式，目前正在格林威治（Greenwich）與棕櫚沙漠（Palm Desert）施工中，並在西好萊塢設計區（West Hollywood Design District）處於開發流程中；所謂生態系，是指在一條街道、某個社區、設計區或購物中心內，以多棟建築呈現品牌據點的整體存在。

Our first ecosystem will be in Greenwich, Connecticut, and includes our gallery at the Historic Post Office, our new outdoor gallery opened last year and our new RH States Gallery with an integrated restaurant opening in the former Ralph Lauren building this summer.

我們的第一個生態系將位於康乃狄克州格林威治，包含我們位於歷史郵局（Historic Post Office）的畫廊、去年開幕的全新戶外畫廊，以及今年夏天將在前 Ralph Lauren 大樓開幕、並整合餐廳的新 RH States Gallery。

We've also developed a new single-story gallery, ranging from 15,000 to 20,000 square feet with a dramatic Courtyard restaurant targeting secondary markets. We're currently under construction in Laskatos, California, and are in design development for galleries in Richmond and Milwaukee. We have been extremely pleased with our performance of our first freestanding RH Interior Design office in Palm Desert, California and have plans to open a second interior design office in Malibu this fall.

我們也開發了一種新的單層畫廊，面積約 15,000 至 20,000 平方英尺，並配置具戲劇張力的庭院餐廳，鎖定次級市場。我們目前正在加州 Laskatos 施工中，並正為里奇蒙（Richmond）與密爾瓦基（Milwaukee）的畫廊進行設計開發。我們對位於加州棕櫚沙漠的第一間獨立式 RH 室內設計辦公室的表現非常滿意，並計畫於今年秋天在馬里布（Malibu）開設第二間室內設計辦公室。

In total, we have an opportunity to expand our presence in 27 existing markets and open one of our new design concepts in 48 new markets across North America, representing a $2 billion opportunity. Let me shift your attention to our business model and balance sheet. While we believe it's prudent to plan conservatively this year due to uncertainties around interest rates and inflation, and have planned revenue growth in the 4% to 8% range in 2026, we do expect growth to accelerate to 10% to 12% in 2027 and reached $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion by 2030.

整體而言，我們有機會在 27 個既有市場擴大據點，並在北美 48 個新市場導入我們的新設計概念，代表約 20 億美元的機會。接著我把各位的注意力轉向我們的商業模式與資產負債表。雖然考量利率與通膨的不確定性，我們認為今年採取保守規劃是審慎之舉，並規劃 2026 年營收成長介於 4% 至 8%；但我們確實預期 2027 年成長將加速至 10% 至 12%，並於 2030 年達到 54 億至 58 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA in the 14% to 16% range for 2026, reaching 25% to 28% by 2030. We expect cash flow of $300 million to $400 million in 2026 and $500 million to $600 million in 2027, inclusive of $200 million to $250 million of asset sales each year.

2026 年調整後 EBITDA 率預計介於 14% 至 16%，並於 2030 年提升至 25% 至 28%。我們預期 2026 年現金流為 3 億至 4 億美元，2027 年為 5 億至 6 億美元，以上均包含每年 2 億至 2.5 億美元的資產出售。

We expect cumulative cash flow of $3 billion by 2030, inclusive of the asset sales and expect to be debt-free by 2029. While one might look at the current market discord and argue that RH has been in the wrong place at the wrong time.

我們預期至 2030 年累計現金流達 30 億美元（包含資產出售），並預期於 2029 年達成零負債。有人可能會看著目前市場的失序與分歧，認為 RH 是在錯的時間出現在錯的地方。

I would argue we've used this period to position our brand to be in the perfect place at the perfect time. Let me explain why. There are two important factors that will meaningfully expand the size of our market over the next 10 years.

但我會主張，我們利用這段期間，讓品牌在最完美的時間處於最完美的位置。我來解釋原因。未來 10 年有兩個重要因素，將顯著擴大我們市場的規模。

One is the exponential spending of high and ultra-high net worth consumers on the home. Ultra-high net worth consumers with a net worth above $20 million, own on average 3.7 homes, billionaires own 10. Ultra-high net worth consumers spend 6.4 times more on home furnishings than a consumer with a single primary residence. Two, is the estimated $30 trillion to $38 trillion wealth transfer projected to take place over the next 10 years. which is more than double the past 10 years.

第一，是高資產與超高資產淨值消費者在居家方面支出的指數型成長。淨資產超過 2,000 萬美元的超高資產淨值消費者，平均擁有 3.7 間住宅；億萬富豪則擁有 10 間。超高資產淨值消費者在家居陳設上的支出，是僅有一處主要自住房消費者的 6.4 倍。第二，是未來 10 年預估將發生 30 兆至 38 兆美元的財富移轉，這個規模是過去 10 年的兩倍以上。

Not only does the absolute dollar amount more double, it's estimated that the dollars transfer from one to an average of seven people. It's possible over the next 10 years, our market will be multiple times larger than the past 10 years. When you combine that with our efforts to elevate and expand our product globally expand our platform, generate significant revenues and brand awareness immersive hospitality venues.

不僅絕對金額增加逾倍，且估計這些資金將從一個人移轉給平均七個人。未來 10 年，我們的市場規模有可能是過去 10 年的數倍。再加上我們致力於提升並擴大全球產品、擴展平台，以及透過沉浸式餐飲場域創造可觀營收與品牌知名度。

I would argue that the RH brand is in the perfect place at the perfect time. And we will emerge from this period of clutter, discord and difficulty as one of the highest performing and most admired brands in the world.

我會主張，RH 品牌正處於最完美的時間與最完美的位置。我們將在這段雜亂、分歧與艱難的時期之後脫穎而出，成為全球表現最佳且最受推崇的品牌之一。

(Operator Instructions) Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

(接線員指示) 摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Simeon Gutman。

First question, I want to talk about demand signals from the consumer. This has been a transitional period for the company. I realize the demand is outpacing a lot of other home furnishing companies, but it's come at a pretty big cost to margin. So expectations around demand improving while we see the margin of the business begin to turn. That's my first question.

第一個問題，我想談談來自消費者的需求訊號。這對公司而言是一段過渡期。我理解需求表現優於許多其他家居公司，但這是以相當大的毛利成本換來的。因此，關於需求改善的預期，以及我們看到公司利潤率開始回升。這是我的第一個問題。

Simeon, the margin pressures somewhat disconnected and unrelated from the demand. The margin pressures really from kind of the investment cadence we have as far as expanding the business throughout Europe and some of the margin pressure coming from the tariffs from a transition and timing and resourcing.

Simeon，利潤率壓力與需求之間有些脫鉤，且並非直接相關。利潤率壓力主要來自我們的投資節奏，例如在歐洲擴張業務的投入，以及部分來自關稅的利潤率壓力，還有轉換期的時點、以及資源配置等因素。

But you basically have kind of an inflection point of we're in kind of a peak investment period from a capital and an expense and cost perspective based on the investments we're making, both from a global expansion and North American expansion point of view and from a product point of view, with the launch of RH Estates.

但基本上，你可以把它視為一個拐點：從資本、費用與成本角度來看，基於我們正在進行的投資，我們正處於投資高峰期；這些投資涵蓋全球擴張與北美擴張，以及產品面向（包括 RH Estates 的推出）。

I think you have to think about the launch of our RH Estates in Q2, we'll have significant costs with soft book and advertising and launching costs, without having much revenue until we get into the third and fourth quarter. And Estates is remember, is basically running late. Our original plan was to have RH Estates in the third and fourth quarter last year. So we have some timing issues.

我認為你必須把 RH Estates 在第二季的推出納入考量：我們會在型錄（soft book）、廣告與上市啟動成本上承擔顯著費用，但在第三、第四季之前不會有太多營收。而且請記得，Estates 基本上是延後了。我們原本的計畫是在去年第三、第四季推出 RH Estates。因此我們確實有一些時點上的問題。

I think when you think about the significant investments we're making, both from a capital and expense perspective, and we're going through kind of an unpredictable time. So I think that's why it's important as you're looking at the business, you're looking at the model, if you're thinking about being an investor here, you have to have a longer-term view than a shorter-term view in periods like these, and in many ways, a lot of people are going less than we're going right as people are pulling back and trying to manage the margin side of their business we're investing in the most significant way we have in our history, and that's just going to create some timing dislocations from an earnings perspective.

我認為，當你考量我們正在進行的重大投資（無論是資本面或費用面），同時又處於一段相對不可預測的時期。因此我認為，當你在看這門生意、看這個模型、如果你在思考是否要成為投資人時，在這樣的時期你必須採取較長期而非短期的視角；而且在很多方面，當其他人正在收縮、試圖管理其業務的利潤率時，我們正以公司史上最顯著的力度投資，這將在獲利表現上造成一些時點上的錯位。

And then my follow-up, you made a couple of executive leadership changes. One, a new President and two, a second person. And in the release, you talked about potentially helping monetize some of the real estate. So can you talk about both of those hires, what prompted them? And then what does it speak to about the direction the business you are heading in?

接著我有個追問，你們做了幾項高階主管的人事調整。第一是任命一位新總裁，第二是增設另一位主管。而在新聞稿中，你們提到可能協助將部分不動產變現。所以能否談談這兩項聘任、是什麼促成的？以及這反映出你們業務未來前進的方向是什麼？

Well, I think it's explained in the press releases. I don't know if there's anything difference than that. We mentioned, we're extremely happy to have Dave Stanchak rejoin Team RH. He's has made a significant impact while it was here, both from a North American transformation point of view and a global transformation point of view and was involved in really setting up the structure of the real estate for European expansion. And so it's got to have Dave back.

我想新聞稿裡已經說明了。我不確定是否還有任何不同於那裡所寫的內容。我們提到，我們非常高興 Dave Stanchak 重新加入 RH 團隊。他在這裡任職期間帶來了重大影響，無論是北美轉型或全球轉型的角度，並且也深度參與了為歐洲擴張建立不動產架構。所以能把 Dave 請回來非常重要。

And I think, Dave, it's probably the most, I think experienced real estate executive on a retail point of view because he's -- both not someone who's just been involved with mall leasing and which is typical, when you think about most retailers, Dave's been involved in real estate investments. He is an investor. He's had his own shopping centers and controls real estate themselves.

而且我認為，Dave 可能是零售領域中最資深的不動產主管之一，因為他——他不只是一般零售商常見、只做商場租賃那一類的人；Dave 也參與不動產投資。他本身就是投資人。他擁有過自己的購物中心，並且自己掌控不動產。

So he comes out from an investor perspective, a much bigger perspective and it's a kind of a transformational leader as you think about a unique business like ours and the platform we're building, which is unlike anything anybody else is doing or has done at a level of quality and locations and so on and so forth.

所以他是從投資人的角度出發，視野更宏觀；而當你思考像我們這樣獨特的業務，以及我們正在打造的平台——在品質、選址等各方面都不同於任何人正在做或曾經做過的事情——他也是一位具備轉型能力的領導者。

So there's not anything that we talk about, I think, in the press release. And then with Veronica is joining RH, we've known Veronica for a long time. We've been able to observe her and her leadership and her ability to build what we think is one of the leading manufacturing businesses in North America for an Upholstery point of view.

所以我想，新聞稿裡我們並沒有再多談其他內容。至於 Veronica 加入 RH，我們認識 Veronica 很久了。我們得以長期觀察她的領導力，以及她打造我們認為是北美領先的軟體（Upholstery）製造業務的能力。

But mostly what we think about here is not just the Upholstery part of our business. But if you think about the best luxury models in the world, whether you're looking at Vuitton or Hermès or Chanel or others. One of the things that's very unique with their business models as they have a very concentrated core business, 80% of their business is in the leather goods and accessories part of the business. It's very similar to our business from a penetration point of view, 80% of our business is furniture that's typical if you look at the home furnishings business.

但我們在這裡主要思考的，不只是我們業務中的軟體（Upholstery）部分。如果你看世界上最好的奢侈品模式，不論是 Vuitton、Hermès、Chanel 或其他品牌。他們商業模式中很獨特的一點是：核心業務高度集中，80% 的營收來自皮具與配件。從滲透率的角度看，這與我們的業務非常相似——我們 80% 的業務是家具；若你看家居用品產業，這是很典型的結構。

So if you're in all categories, that's going to directionally be the mix depending on how you position those categories. And we think there's an opportunity when you look at our business from a global scale and building a unique platform that's synergistic and appropriate for the unique platform we're building from the selling side.

所以如果你涵蓋所有品類，依你如何定位各品類，方向上組合大致會是那樣。而我們認為，當你以全球規模來看我們的業務，並打造一個獨特的平台——在銷售端與我們正在建立的獨特平台相互協同且相稱——這裡存在機會。

I think we've built and are building the most unique physical selling platform in the world. And I think it deserves and will be positively impacted by building the most unique manufacturing and sourcing platform in the world.

我認為我們已經打造、並正在打造全球最獨特的實體銷售平台。而我認為，若能同時打造全球最獨特的製造與採購平台，將值得且會對其帶來正向影響。

So eliminating, when you think about the inefficiencies of manufacturing, when you don't -- when you don't control your distribution, there's quite a bit. So long term, we think we can build a unique manufacturing platform.

所以當你思考製造端的低效率時，如果你不——如果你無法掌控你的配送/物流體系，低效率其實相當多。因此長期來看，我們認為我們可以建立一個獨特的製造平台。

And as I said in the press release, a combination of owned joint venture and outsourced that can be very unique and significantly accretive from a -- we think both a revenue and a cost perspective and a margin perspective.

而如我在新聞稿中所說，透過自有、合資與外包的組合，能形成非常獨特的模式，並且我們認為在營收、成本以及毛利率等面向都能帶來顯著的增益（accretive）。

So yes, so we're excited. We think Veronica is the best person in the industry we've met. I think she's a unique talent leader. She's Engineer by education and experience and has a big and very big and kind of strategic view of manufacturing and sourcing. So it's a new level of talent in the company. We've never had someone this kind of pedigree and experience and talent, and we think she's going to do some incredible things long term.

所以是的，我們很興奮。我們認為 Veronica 是我們所見過、業界最合適的人選。我認為她是一位非常獨特的人才型領導者。她在教育與經驗上都是工程背景，對製造與採購有很宏觀、也非常策略性的視角。所以這是公司人才層級的一次提升。我們過去從未有過具備這種資歷、經驗與才幹的人，我們相信她長期會做出一些非常了不起的事情。

Steven Forbes, Guggenheim Securities.

Steven Forbes，Guggenheim Securities。

Gary, with Milan and London center open here in short order. Curious if you could give us an update on RH Powers and/or just comment on the anticipated revenue contribution from the broader RH International strategy behind the 2030 reference year you laid out in your prepared remarks. Obviously, just looking today, for any color to help support or build conviction around those longer-term outlook you laid out today?

Gary，米蘭與倫敦的中心即將在短期內開幕。想請你更新一下 RH Powers 的進展，和/或評論一下你在事先準備的談話中提到、以 2030 年為參考年度的更廣泛 RH International 國際策略，預期能帶來多少營收貢獻。顯然，以今天的角度來看，想聽聽是否能提供一些補充資訊，來支持或強化大家對你今天提出的長期展望的信心？

Not sure, if I picked that up question correctly.

我不確定我是否正確理解了這個問題。

The impact of international as it relates to the 2030 targets, how we think about that growth of that.

國際業務對 2030 年目標的影響，以及我們如何看待那部分的成長。

Yes. Well, I think what we've articulated most recently over the last few quarters and really since, I think, our start, really that the opening of Paris, Milan and London is kind of the brand foundation to build on when you think about European expansion.

是的。我想我們最近幾季、其實從一開始就一直在闡述：巴黎、米蘭與倫敦的開幕，是你在思考歐洲擴張時，用來往上建構的品牌基礎。

There are the three most important cities in Europe, we think they're important from a positioning of the brand and a brand awareness point of view. And all three of those are really the besides, again, RH England, which is out in the countryside, which was important from a brand impression and awareness perspective and how to kind of make an entry into the European market.

我們認為這三座城市是歐洲最重要的三個城市，從品牌定位與品牌知名度的角度都很關鍵。而這三者也都是——再加上位於鄉間的 RH England（英國據點），它在品牌印象與知名度、以及如何切入歐洲市場方面也很重要。

But these really are where we have significant investments in the presentation of the product that hospitality experience, which we think is going to be critical long term to building brand awareness throughout Europe. And then one of the keys here is really not just these key stores because if you -- as we assess the business in Europe, and we have since day one, I believe that the basic distribution and where the sales will come from will be long term, more important in suburbs and second home markets than cities that the cities are really going to be the key to brand awareness and driving the brand positioning the brand, and we'll do significantly more revenues we believe, in Paris and Milan and London than we will in other cities.

但這些城市確實是我們在產品呈現與款待式體驗（hospitality experience）上投入重資的地方；我們認為，這對於長期在全歐洲建立品牌知名度至關重要。而其中一個關鍵在於，不只是這些旗艦店本身；因為如果你——當我們評估歐洲業務（而且從第一天起就是如此）時，我相信長期而言，基本的通路分布與銷售來源，郊區與第二住宅市場會比城市更重要；城市真正的角色會是提升品牌知名度、推動品牌定位。我們相信，在巴黎、米蘭與倫敦的營收會顯著高於其他城市。

And if we were ranking them clearly lending, we believe, going to be the biggest market for us as it should be. But our distribution of business is significantly suburbs and second home markets in North America. 92% of our business is in suburbs and second home markets. and final markets are kind of like a suburb, right? And about 8% of our business is in the cities. And we think that distribution is going to be similar throughout Europe.

如果要排名，我們很清楚地認為倫敦將會是我們最大的市場，這也理所當然。但在北美，我們的業務分布主要在郊區與第二住宅市場：92% 的業務在郊區與第二住宅市場；而所謂的「最終市場」某種程度上也像郊區，對吧？大約 8% 的業務在城市。我們認為這樣的分布在歐洲也會類似。

And if you looked at Apple's real estate strategy and you look at their distribution throughout Europe, which we believe was a good kind of model for us to look at as far as a higher-end consumer. And you looked at like Apple's North American kind of distribution versus our North American distribution, their penetration in suburbs, our penetration in suburbs. There's similarities there. We're more highly penetrated in second home markets than they are. Most people have their phone with them.

如果你看 Apple 的不動產策略，以及他們在歐洲的據點分布——我們認為這是個不錯的參考模型，因為他們面向的是較高端的消費者。再看 Apple 在北美的分布與我們在北美的分布、他們在郊區的滲透率與我們在郊區的滲透率。其中有相似之處。我們在第二住宅市場的滲透率比他們更高。畢竟大多數人手機都隨身帶著。

But one of the keys for I think, Dave is joining the company, too, is just to continue that leadership into Europe and building out into the suburbs and into the second home markets to cover the business. So strategically, we're setting up the business in the kind of key markets that you would from a brand and awareness perspective and not that we don't think that the business is going to have revenues there. We just think the biggest revenues are going to come long term when you think about the longer-term plan as we expand into the suburbs and markets where people really buy much more furniture, both indoors and outdoors.

但我認為 Dave 加入公司的一個關鍵原因，也是要把這樣的領導力延伸到歐洲，並持續向郊區與第二住宅市場拓展，以覆蓋整體業務。所以在策略上，我們是在你從品牌與知名度角度會選擇的關鍵市場先把業務架構搭起來；並不是我們不認為那裡會有營收。我們只是認為，長期最大的營收會來自於——當你思考更長期的計畫——我們向郊區與人們真正會購買更多家具（室內與戶外）的市場擴張之後。

Maybe just a quick follow-up. Obviously, great to hear Dave rejoining the company. You talked about you talked about $250 million of asset sales in each of the next two years. This is sort of a two-part question. One, can you speak to sort of the value of the non-core assets or the assets that you don't plan to operate in the future versus the value of the assets, are you still planning to operate in the future. And then maybe any color on sort of timing for 2026 asset sales as we think through the potential interest expense savings.

也許只是快速追問一下。顯然，很高興聽到 Dave 重新加入公司。你提到未來兩年每年約 2.5 億美元的資產出售。這算是個兩段式問題。第一，能否談談非核心資產、或你們未來不打算營運的資產之價值，相較於你們仍計畫未來持續營運之資產的價值？第二，關於 2026 年資產出售的時點，能否提供一些說明，讓我們在評估潛在利息費用節省時更好推算？

As far as that mix, I'd say the majority of the asset sales are assets that we will be operating that are in a sale leaseback kind of properties and then there's some investment properties that we had in Aspen. And a few other things that we've decided not to pursue for whatever reason, we own a building in Milan -- not the Milan, excuse me, Madrid, and we're not going to pursue the development of that.

就那個組合而言，我會說大多數的資產出售會是我們仍會營運的資產，屬於售後回租（sale-leaseback）類型的物業；另外還有一些我們在 Aspen 持有的投資性物業。以及其他幾項我們基於各種原因決定不再推進的項目；我們在馬德里（不是米蘭，抱歉）有一棟大樓，我們不會再推進那個開發案。

We're fine with the location we have today. And so it's just looking at taking a look at our balance sheet and just turning those asset into cash, as we said we would be doing. So we've said we have about $0.5 billion of real estate assets that we could monetize. And we're going to begin to monetize those Dave has got dense experience on that end of real estate.

我們對目前的據點配置很滿意。因此就是檢視資產負債表，並如我們所說，把那些資產轉換成現金。我們曾說過，大約有 5 億美元的不動產資產可以變現。我們將開始進行變現；Dave 在不動產這一端有非常深厚的經驗。

And he feels very confident in what we're going to be able to do. And some of these are properties that we had purchased and had developed over the last two to three years, I guess, you got to think about a lot of our investment horizons are pretty long from a -- when you think about some of the galleries that we've built, you've got -- you've got significant time to design and develop and get through the approval process and then you've got significant time building them. So you have a relatively long holding time.

他對我們能做到的事情非常有信心。其中一些是我們在過去兩到三年購入並開發的物業；我想你得這樣看：我們很多投資期間都相當長——當你想到我們建造的一些 Gallery，你需要大量時間做設計與開發、走完審批流程，接著還要花不少時間施工。因此持有期間相對較長。

And I think post-COVID, all of the construction cost have went up, particularly at the luxury level. And those prompted us as we communicated in the video, to develop just other faster, more flexible ways to deploy the brand. And when you think about the design compounds and think about where the first couple are going in Naples, we're taking what was the formal a Nordstrom site.

我認為在 COVID 之後，所有建築成本都上升了，尤其是奢華等級的建造。這也促使我們如同在影片中所溝通的，去發展其他更快、更具彈性的品牌落地方式。當你想到設計複合式據點（design compounds），以及前幾個將落地在 Naples 的位置，我們是接手原本的 Nordstrom 舊址。

In Walnut Creek, we're taking what was formerly a Neiman Marcus site. And then in Miami, we're developing kind of a parking lot size kind of a key visible area in Miami, that was kind of a Bank of America. But we think about those opportunities to be significantly faster and more capital efficient, we've built most of our big kind of, I'd say, the higher investment, higher capital side of the business.

在 Walnut Creek，我們接手原本的 Neiman Marcus 舊址。而在 Miami，我們正在開發一塊在邁阿密非常顯眼的關鍵地段，規模有點像停車場大小，原本是 Bank of America 的據點。我們認為這些機會能更快、資本效率更高；我們已經完成了多數大型、我會說屬於高投入、高資本的業態建設。

We've been transforming the real estate here now for 15 years. And so even on a European and global point of view, I would say that we have Sydney coming, but that's a different model that's really being built by the developer. It's not going to take much capital from RH. But yes, we have significant assets. We're going to now monetize, turn into cash, and then we've got some assets in Aspen and other things like that, that will monetize over time.

我們在這裡改造不動產已經 15 年了。所以即使從歐洲與全球角度來看，我會說我們還有 Sydney 將開出，但那是不同的模式，主要由開發商來建造。RH 不需要投入太多資本。但沒錯，我們有相當可觀的資產。我們現在會把它們變現、轉成現金；另外我們在 Aspen 等地也有一些資產，會隨時間逐步變現。

So yes, so a lot of that will come off the balance sheet. I don't know, Jack, do you have anything to add on?

所以是的，其中很多會從資產負債表上移除。我不知道，Jack，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think from a timing perspective, Steve, we'll just keep you posted. We're not ready to commit us to show the cadence to 2026, and we'll just update you as things as appropriate.

沒有。我想就時點而言，Steve，我們會持續向你更新。我們還沒準備好承諾 2026 年的節奏安排，我們會在適當時機隨進展更新。

Max Rakhlenko, TD Cohen.

Max Rakhlenko，TD Cohen。

So first on the states, can you provide color on how you're thinking about scaling the collection. We know when the books will hit, but how are you thinking about the cadence product rollout into the galleries? How are you looking by inventory, et cetera? Just if you could compare and contrast this collection versus the Modern and Interiors launches that you had a couple of years back.

首先關於 Estates，你能否說明一下你們如何思考擴大這個系列的規模？我們知道型錄（books）何時會推出，但你們如何規劃產品導入各個 Gallery 的節奏？在庫存等方面你們怎麼看？如果可以的話，能否把這個系列與你們幾年前推出的 Modern 與 Interiors 做個比較與對照？

Sure. So the books will hit kind of mid-May, and we will -- we've got a handful of stores that will get the initial product that we'll be able to kind of test and then we and get some reads on, but we feel very confident in this election. So we went out with a bigger inventory by -- and a lot of it based on just the data. You have 60% of luxury homes in America that have classic and traditional architecture.

當然。型錄大概會在 5 月中旬推出；我們會先讓少數幾家門店拿到首批產品，先做測試，並取得一些回饋數據，但我們對這個系列非常有信心。因此我們以更大的庫存量推出——其中很大一部分是基於數據。美國有 60% 的豪宅是古典與傳統建築風格。

And it is really the next big trend as you think about how the trends cycle through, this trend is a lot of the product you're going to see cycle through. It's why we've made some of the acquisitions that we made, whether it's the Michael Taylor brand and the famous diamond table and so on and so forth to really be able to not only have authority, but be able to have intellectual property rights for a lot of the kind of key products that are coming. And so we just think it's going to be a big building trend. But in the second half, will be and how many galleries do we think? 30?

而當你思考趨勢如何輪動時，這確實是下一個大趨勢；你會看到很多產品隨著這個趨勢輪動。這也是為什麼我們做了一些收購，不論是 Michael Taylor 品牌、著名的鑽石桌（diamond table）等等，讓我們不僅具備權威性，也能擁有許多即將到來之關鍵產品的智慧財產權。因此我們認為這會是一個很大的建置型趨勢。而在下半年，會是——我們預期會進到多少家 Gallery？30 家？

Yes.

是的。

About 30, 40 galleries, our top 30, 40 galleries in the large design galleries, we'll take over the first floor with RH Estates. So this is a significant launch and a significant bet.

大約 30 到 40 家 Gallery，我們前 30 到 40 家、也就是大型設計 Gallery 的主力店，會把一樓交由 RH Estates 進駐。所以這是一個重大的上市（launch）與重大的押注。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a two-parter on margins. If you could just isolate how you're thinking about the impact of tariffs for 2026, both the cadence and magnitude as I don't think you discussed that in the letter this time around.

了解。這很有幫助。接著關於毛利的兩個問題。你能否單獨說明一下你們如何看待 2026 年關稅的影響，包括節奏與幅度？我想你們這次在信中沒有談到。

And then separately, if we exclude tariffs and some of the timing shifts that you discussed earlier on the call, how healthy is sort of your -- or how healthy your product margins as we think about the long-term targets you laid out, how much higher can the product margins go as you do continue to add these new collections that I think come with much higher margin. So if we just think about the core, where can the business go from a product margin perspective.

另外，如果排除關稅以及你們在電話會議前面提到的一些時點移轉因素，你們的產品毛利狀況有多健康？就你們提出的長期目標來看，隨著持續新增我認為毛利更高的新系列，產品毛利還能提高多少？所以如果只看核心業務，從產品毛利角度來看，這個業務能走到哪裡？

Yes. I think, we're not giving detailed margin forecast. But our margin our product margins are relatively healthy, except for some bumps we're going through from a tariff point of view. I think we've been able to perform reasonably well if you exclude kind of the weight that we have from this investment cycle and the drag from Europe and you kind of take a look at the business.

是的。我想我們不會提供詳細的毛利預測。但我們的產品毛利相對健康，除了我們在關稅面臨的一些顛簸。我認為如果你排除這一輪投資週期帶來的負擔、以及歐洲業務的拖累，回頭看整體業務，我們的表現其實還算不錯。

And I think one of the things we're doing, as we think about this business, a lot of times with brands as you go through the history of brands, you've got kind of the levels and the transformations you make to kind of get to where you want to go.

而且我認為我們正在做的一件事是：當我們思考這門生意時，很多時候回顧品牌的歷史，你會看到不同的層級，以及你為了走到想去的地方所做的各種轉型。

And this next -- this cycle we're in now, it's a key investment cycle. Clearly, we've spent a lot of capital. We've made big investments to kind of position the brand not only in North America, but positioned in Europe for the long term. And once you get past those cycles, we're going to have great leverage. Opening galleries like we're opening and restaurants like we're opening or significant costs, especially when you're doing them in a different country.

而接下來——我們現在所處的這一輪週期，是一個關鍵的投資週期。很明顯，我們已投入了大量資本。我們進行了重大投資，以便讓品牌不僅在北美站穩腳步，也在歐洲建立長期布局。一旦度過這些週期，我們將會有很大的營運槓桿。像我們正在開設的藝廊（galleries）以及餐廳，都是重大的成本，尤其是在不同國家進行時。

There's just more travel more expense from hiring people and building new organizations and so on and so forth? So from a -- I just think, it's not just the product margins, it's really just the overall margin structure of the business once we go post peak here on this investment cycle, both from a capital and from an expense and cost point of view.

因為會有更多差旅、更多費用，包含招募人員、建立新的組織等等？所以從——我認為不只是產品毛利，而是當我們在這個投資週期過了高峰之後，從資本面以及費用與成本面的角度來看，整體的利潤結構都會改善、而且更具槓桿。

I think the model of this business is going to look like one of the best models people have ever seen in our industry. So if not the best model, I think it's going to be the best model anyone seen. So we feel confident in that.

我認為這門生意的模式，會看起來像是我們產業裡人們見過最好的模式之一。甚至如果不是最好的，我也認為會是任何人見過的最佳模式。所以我們對此很有信心。

I mean, we're also just -- from a global perspective, navigating through very uncertain times. And we do have a product mix that is going to be somewhat more cyclical and have more of a drag. So when you're really focused on the furniture business versus the home furnishing, the broader furnishings business, accessories business, tabletop, kitchen businesses and so on and so forth. You're going to have more weight during times like these. So that's going to require you to fight for more business.

我的意思是，我們同時也——從全球角度來看，正在穿越非常不確定的時期。而我們的產品組合相對會更具週期性，拖累也會更大一些。所以當你更聚焦在家具業務，而不是家居陳設（home furnishing）這種更廣泛的陳設業務、配件業務、餐桌用品（tabletop）、廚房業務等等。在像現在這樣的時期，你的比重會更重、壓力也更大。因此這會要求你去爭取更多生意。

But that's throughout our history, we've always fought through the business in times like these. We've always been more promotional than less promotional in times like these. And we think it's times like these that there's a lot of fallout. And there's going to be a lot of competition that's not going to make it through these times. There's been greater fallout in the furniture business.

但在我們的歷史中，一直都是在這樣的時期把生意打出來。在這樣的時期，我們一向是更偏促銷、而不是更少促銷。而我們認為正是在這樣的時期，會出現大量的淘汰。也會有很多競爭對手撐不過這段時間。家具業的淘汰更為嚴重。

As most people know, over the last few years than in any time in history. And I think there's going to -- as long as the housing market remains difficult. There's just going to be a lot less competition, and we're going to be better positioned than we've ever been for the other side of the cycle. As we build out the assortment, especially in the Estates over the -- think about the Estates expansion over really a five-year horizon from a product point of view, I'd say over the next five years as Estates assortment is going to grow, it's going to build, it's going to become more dominant. The trend is going to -- that wave is going to keep building over the next 5 to 10 years, right?

如同大多數人所知道的，過去幾年比歷史上任何時期都更嚴重。而我認為——只要房市仍然艱困，競爭就會少很多，而我們在週期另一端的布局，會比以往任何時候都更有利。當我們擴充產品組合，尤其是 Estates——從產品角度來看，想想 Estates 的擴張其實是以五年為期；我會說在未來五年，Estates 的品類會成長、會建立起來、會變得更具主導性。這個趨勢——那個浪潮會在未來 5 到 10 年持續堆高，對吧？

So I think about the whole model of the business in this way, we're very confident in the long-term model. I think what confuses people is most public companies go public and they kind of manage the business, right? They have a simple rollout and they're going to do so many stores a year and the stores are all the same and everything is really predictable and most of them go through their rollout cycle of 5 to 7 to 10 years, however -- what amount of time they stay relevant for.

所以我用這樣的方式來看整個商業模式：我們對長期模式非常有信心。我認為讓人困惑的是，多數上市公司上市後就會某種程度上「管理」這門生意，對吧？他們有一個簡單的展店計畫，每年開幾家店、店型都一樣，一切都很可預測；而多數公司會走完他們 5 到 7 到 10 年的展店週期——不管他們能維持相關性的時間有多長。

And then usually, becomes kind of a dated concept over time. And that's why we like to say that most retail malls or graveyard for short-lived ideas. Most retail companies don't even concepts don't live out the first term or second term of their leases.

然後通常隨著時間推移，就會變成一個有點過時的概念。這也是為什麼我們喜歡說，多數零售商場就像是短命點子的墳場。多數零售公司——甚至連概念——都撐不到租約的第一期或第二期。

So we're going through one of those investment cycles that will leapfrog this business forward and you're looking at kind of peak investment cycle and kind of trough kind of economic cycle, right? So an even with those two, you still get a business here with a kind of a mid-teens EBITDA margin to high teens EBITDA margin. And once you get past this cycle, there's a lot of leverage in this model. So --

所以我們正在經歷一個投資週期，這會讓這門生意跳躍式向前；而你看到的是某種投資週期的高峰、以及某種經濟週期的低谷，對吧？即便同時面對這兩者，你仍然會得到一家 EBITDA 利潤率約在十幾個百分點中段到十幾個百分點高段的公司。一旦度過這個週期，這個模式就會有很大的槓桿。所以--

Max, I'll add on tariffs. So in Q4, we talked about last year, tariffs having an impact of 90 basis points in terms of a drag. And Q4, we had talked about $170 million. We ended up at $190 million in Q4. And the way we characterized that in the last call is that, that's ultimately by Q4, you're fully baked into the sort of prior tariff regime.

Max，我補充一下關於關稅。所以在第四季，我們去年提到關稅的影響約為 90 個基點的拖累。而在第四季，我們當時談到的是 1.7 億美元。我們第四季最後是 1.9 億美元。我們在上次電話會議對此的描述是：到第四季為止，你基本上已完全反映在先前那套關稅制度之下的影響。

Obviously, things have changed now with the Supreme Court decision. But tariffs come out in and out of turn, as you know. And so while in the -- let's say, in the first half, you might have some tailwinds from that relatively lower rate that exists under Section 122 today. Who knows what happens in the second half. There's obviously a sprint to replace all those tariffs and potentially more as Trump first said under Section 301 in the back half.

很明顯，最高法院的裁決之後，情況現在已經改變。但如你所知，關稅會不按順序地進進出出、時有變動。因此在——比如說上半年，你可能會因為目前第 122 條（Section 122）下相對較低的稅率而有一些順風。至於下半年會怎樣，誰也不知道。顯然，大家正加速去替換所有那些關稅，甚至可能更多——如同川普最初所說，在下半年可能會以第 301 條（Section 301）來推動。

So we're just -- we're playing by year being, as you know, we're nimble and we're dynamic. But as far as last year's tariff impact was sort of fully baked in Q4. It's a bit of an indicator as to how it plays out in the first half, but obviously, the math will tell you that there's going to be some relief there as far as that tariff drag concern. So we'll keep you updated if there's -- as things play out. Obviously, we're watching it like you guys are watching.

所以我們就是——如你所知，我們按年度來應對，我們很靈活、也很具動態調整能力。但就去年關稅影響而言，在第四季已經算是完全反映。這在某種程度上可作為上半年如何發展的指標，但很明顯，從數學上你會看得出來，就關稅拖累這件事而言，會有一些緩解。所以如果——隨著事情發展，我們會持續向各位更新。很顯然，我們也跟你們一樣在密切關注。

Steven Zaccone, Citi.

Steven Zaccone，花旗。

I wanted to ask about the cadence of the year from a revenue growth perspective because the first quarter, obviously calling for revenue to be down, but in the full year, it looks like an acceleration in the back half. Can you just talk through the points of the acceleration? I assume the Estates is a big piece? How much is international? Any details you could share would be helpful.

我想從營收成長的角度，問一下全年節奏的安排：因為第一季顯然指引是營收下滑，但看全年似乎在下半年會加速。你能否談談加速的驅動因素？我猜 Estates 是很大的一塊？國際業務占多少？任何你能分享的細節都會很有幫助。

Well, yes, clearly, International and the Estates, the cycling of -- it Estates across the entire platform, International from opening cadence and just what we think the growth in the first couple of years. We really -- RH England is kind of our best point of history and -- we know how that ramps. So we expect the International stores to have a ramp to them over the first several years. But when you think about the back half, sure, you've openings in North America, you've got openings in Europe. You've got Estates which will -- in Q3, Q4, you'll start seeing the revenues flow from demand in Q2.

嗯，是的，很明顯，國際業務與 Estates——也就是 Estates 在整個平台上的週期性推進；國際業務則來自開店節奏，以及我們對前幾年成長的預期。我們確實——RH England 算是我們最好的歷史參考點，而且——我們知道它是如何爬坡的。所以我們預期國際門店在最初幾年會有一個爬坡期。但當你看下半年，當然，你在北美有開店、在歐洲也有開店。你還有 Estates——在第三季、第四季，你會開始看到第二季需求所帶來的營收開始流入。

And you'll see a ramp in the Estate. You'll have a second mailing of the book. You'll have newness in both Interiors and Modern. So all of those things combined, we believe is a big step up in the business in the second half. And we would have expected more in the back half of last year in the first half of this year because the Estates would have been part of that cadence.

而你會看到 Estate 的爬坡。你會有第二次寄送型錄（book）。你會在 Interiors 和 Modern 兩個系列都有新品。所以我們相信，這些因素加總起來，會讓下半年的業務出現一個很大的躍升。而我們原本也預期去年下半年到今年上半年會更強一些，因為 Estates 本來會是那個節奏的一部分。

Okay. Understood. And then the second question I have is just on the margin recovery of the business, right, because we've been an investment period for the business for some time, and I think you've used the term leapfrog in terms of margins in the past. For the longer duration investor, when you look at the business, what do you think is the biggest factor holding back margins for improving? Is it just the fact that some investments have taken a little bit longer and have been a little bit higher than expected?

好的。了解。接著我第二個問題是關於業務的利潤率修復，對吧，因為我們在這項業務上已經處於一段時間的投資期，而且我記得你過去用過「跳躍式提升（leapfrog）」來形容利潤率。對於較長期的投資人來看，當你審視這門業務時，你認為目前阻礙利潤率改善的最大因素是什麼？是否只是因為某些投資花的時間稍微更久、金額也比預期略高？

Has it been the top line, the macro environment? How do we think about some of the unlocks to see that margin improvement on the other side come back stronger.

是營收端（top line）、總體環境（macro environment）嗎？我們該如何看待一些解鎖因素，讓利潤率在另一端回升並變得更強？

I think you've just outlined it. Yes, I mean we've we're in peak investment cycle in trough -- economic cycle, especially from a home point of view. So the -- I mean, not just trough investment cycle, you've had the whole kind of chaotic tariff cycle, that has caused kind of significant disruption on the business. I mean we've resourced 40% of our assortment. Business of our size, resourcing 40% of your -- core assortment, which is really -- 40% of the assortment is bigger -- it's a larger part of the business.

我想你其實已經把重點都說出來了。是的，我的意思是，我們正處於投資週期的高峰、經濟週期的谷底——尤其是從家居（home）角度來看。所以——我的意思是，不只是景氣谷底，你還經歷了整個相當混亂的關稅週期，對業務造成了相當大的擾動。我們已經把40%的商品組合重新採購來源（resourced）。以我們這種規模的企業來說，將你核心商品組合的40%重新採購來源——也就是說，40%的商品組合其實是更大——它在業務中占比更高。

So, yes. It's all of those things together, Steve. So this is a good time to buy our stock this is when people create generational wealth, right? This is no different than trough times in a real estate market, tough times in any kind of a transitional time for an industry or business. And all businesses in our industry get hit in these times and all businesses that survive to the other side, get a lift in this time.

所以，是的。這些因素加總在一起，Steve。所以現在是買我們股票的好時機——人們就是在這種時候創造世代財富，對吧？這跟房地產市場的谷底時期、任何產業或企業處於轉型期的艱難時刻沒有不同。我們產業裡所有企業在這種時候都會被打擊，而所有能撐過去的企業，在這段時間都會獲得一個抬升。

I think what's different is we've historically been investors during times like this is when we've seen the biggest opportunities. But this time is, I think, different than previous times because we're in a kind of a real peak investment cycle. We're opening Europe, we’re launching new businesses. And so the opportunity to have a leapfrog, if we're more right than wrong, and we don't have to be completely right, we just have to be directionally right here. And so we say don't let perfect be the enemy of grapes.

我認為不同之處在於，我們歷來在這種時候都是投資者，因為我們在這種時候看到最大的機會。但這一次，我覺得跟以往不同，因為我們正處於真正的投資高峰期。我們正在開拓歐洲，我們正在推出新業務。因此，如果我們做得「對的多於錯的」，而且我們不需要完全正確，只要方向上正確即可，那就有機會實現跳躍式提升（leapfrog）。所以我們說，不要讓追求完美成為葡萄的敵人（don't let perfect be the enemy of grapes）。

And yes, we've got a lot of experience here in this company. We've been doing this a long time. And I think we've proven that we've been a lot more right than a lot more wrong. I mean if you think about the transformation from what was Restoration Hardware, before of what is RH today, if you think about the transformation of this brand, over a 20 plus year period and try to say, name other brands that have made transformations like that, name other brands that are positioned like we are. These are the times that businesses like ours separate ourselves even further from the pack.

而且，是的，我們公司在這方面有很多經驗。我們做這件事已經很久了。我認為我們已經證明，我們做對的時候遠多於做錯的時候。我的意思是，如果你想想從過去的 Restoration Hardware 到今天的 RH 的轉型，如果你想想這個品牌在20多年期間的轉變，然後試著說，還有哪些品牌做過那樣的轉型？還有哪些品牌能像我們這樣定位？正是在這種時候，像我們這樣的企業會把自己與同業拉開更大的差距。

But you have to make those investments, you have to take that level of risk to be able to do that. So we are not kind of a management culture or leadership culture. And we're constantly innovating and investing, but this is one of those significant cycles. It just happens to be during a significant down cycle, especially focused on our industry.

但你必須做出那些投資，你必須承擔那種程度的風險，才能做到。所以我們不是那種——管理文化或領導文化（的公司）。我們一直在創新與投資，但這是一個重大的週期之一。只是剛好發生在一個顯著的下行週期中，尤其是對我們產業的影響特別集中。

And so -- but we're in a better position than we've ever been from a historical point of view to weather the storm. And I think if you just think about what does the next five years look like from an investment point of view. I mean, we're going to come off, if you take that -- the $37 million and the $289 million, you've got kind of a peak type of investment year historically. And then we come off that peak. Can we come into the $250 million to $260 million and then that's going to drop to $150 million to $170 million a year.

因此——但從歷史角度來看，我們現在比以往任何時候都更有能力度過風暴。而且如果你想想，從投資角度看未來五年會是什麼樣子。我的意思是，我們將會從——如果你把那3,700萬美元和2.89億美元算進去，你會看到歷史上屬於投資高峰的一年。然後我們會從那個高峰回落。我們能否降到2.5億到2.6億美元，接著再降到每年1.5億到1.7億美元。

So you think about the company growing, the capital investment period coming down, and it's not just the capital, right, the investment, but it's also all the expense that's connected to that capital. All the expense that's connected to bringing up those stores, training the people, building the infrastructure, building the distribution capability in the business. All the marketing and advertising that supports a launch, all the time and energy to kind of build out the assortments, develop all the products at scale to create a leapfrog, not to kind of slightly outperform.

所以你會看到公司在成長、資本投資期在下降，而且不只是資本本身，對吧，不只是投資金額，還包括所有與該資本相關的費用。所有與把那些門店拉升起來相關的費用：訓練人員、建置基礎設施、建立企業的配送能力。所有支撐上市/開幕的行銷與廣告、所有用來擴充商品組合的時間與精力、以規模開發所有產品，去創造跳躍式提升，而不是只是小幅跑贏。

But it's no different than taking a $300 million business that was losing $40 million a year. That was Restoration Hardware and creating RH that's a $3.5 billion business. I mean that -- think about what the next cycle looks like.

但這跟把一家3億美元營收、每年虧損4,000萬美元的企業扭轉沒有不同。那就是當年的 Restoration Hardware，而我們打造出今天的 RH——一家35億美元營收的企業。我的意思是——想想下一個週期會是什麼樣子。

The next cycle is, I think, even more magnified that --. We've been giving you our framework for the model. And the biggest pieces of the model are the pieces we're talking about. If I was on the outside, looking at this, I'd say, hey, what is the outlook for capital investments as they go forward and not just thinking about the capital, but what is the expense, the cost investments that are connected to that capital how does that change over the next five years?

我認為下一個週期會被放大得更明顯，--。我們一直在向各位提供我們模型的框架。而模型中最大的幾個部分，就是我們正在談的這些。如果我是外部投資人來看，我會說，嘿，未來資本投資的走勢如何？而且不只是看資本本身，還要看與該資本相連的費用、成本性投資——未來五年會如何變化？

And how does it change over the next couple of years, right? Just over the next couple of years, the investment cycle is post peak, and it's going to turn down and accelerate in a downward way just as revenues are going to accelerate in a positive way, right?

以及未來幾年會如何變化，對吧？就在未來幾年，投資週期已過高峰，將會下行，並以更快速度往下走；同時營收將會以正向方式加速成長，對吧？

And when you have those two things going in different directions, that's when you have inflection points in return on invested capital on margins, earnings, et cetera, et cetera. So the framework for the math is pretty simple. I think the strategy because it's never been seen before is -- can be suspect and could be hard to understand. There can be less believers than more believers at certain times.

當這兩件事朝相反方向發展時，就會出現投入資本報酬率（return on invested capital）、利潤率、獲利等的拐點（inflection points），等等等等。所以數學上的框架其實很簡單。我認為策略因為前所未見——可能會被質疑，也可能不容易理解。在某些時候，相信的人可能會比不相信的人少。

So look, I don't blame anybody for kind of saying, Hey, this is it looks like an uncertain time to invest," whether it's in our stock or any stock in our category. But especially, you've got to kind of believe in the longer-term debt here. And we think this is going to be the -- one of the best bets that people will make. As referenced by my personal investment here. So that's how we think about it.

所以你看，我不怪任何人會說：「嘿，現在看起來是個不確定的投資時點」，不管是投我們的股票或是我們類別裡的任何股票。但尤其是，你必須某種程度上相信這裡的長期論點。而我們認為，這將會是人們做出的——其中一個最好的押注。正如我個人在此的投資所佐證。所以我們是這樣看待的。

Michael Lasser, UBS.

Michael Lasser，瑞銀（UBS）。

Gary, you've laid out this ambitious and aspirational plan to take advantage of what seems like a very large and growing addressable market, and yet the market is not really willing to give you the amendment, sort of a doubt. And part of that is RH has been averse to and does not really look at its business on a same store basis, which is understandable, and that's long how you've articulated it. But at this point, that has defaulted to the narrative where rate needs to grow concepts and its physical footprint in order to drive growth, and that comes with a significant cost.

Gary，你提出了一個雄心勃勃、也很具願景的計畫，想要把握看起來非常龐大且持續成長的可服務市場（addressable market），但市場似乎並不願意給你「疑點利益」（benefit of the doubt）。其中一部分原因是，RH 一直以來不太願意、也不太會用同店（same store）口徑來看待其業務，這可以理解，而且你也一直是這樣表述的。但在目前這個時間點，這就默認成了一種敘事：RH 需要透過擴張概念店與實體版圖來推動成長，而這會伴隨相當可觀的成本。

And as a result, you may not be able to realize its aspiration, understanding that it's come a long way from its origin, but it's the market's relying heavily on the recent experience. So why based on the recent experience is the default of the market wrong?

因此，你可能無法實現其願景；要理解的是，它已經從起點走了很長一段路，但市場卻高度依賴近期的經驗。那麼，為什麼以近期經驗為基礎的市場預設是錯的？

I think, it's what I just said. You have to think about peak investment period and what hopefully is a low point in the trough from a market perspective. It's -- again, I think if you pull out the investments, if just pull out the European drag the investment of -- think about -- we're investing in Europe. The European market is worse than the American market right now, it's -- we're investing at a time you likely would like to not invest, but you can't make long-term real estate investments and expect to get them all right, right?

我認為，就是我剛才說的。你必須從市場角度去思考投資高峰期，以及希望在谷底時出現的低點。這——再說一次，我認為如果你把投資抽離，如果只是把歐洲的拖累從投資中剔除——想想看——我們正在投資歐洲。歐洲市場目前比美國市場更差；我們是在一個你很可能不想投資的時點投資，但你不可能做長期不動產投資，還期待每一次都押對，對吧？

So the -- why is the simple model, Michael, of saying I'm cycling peak investments, and I'm cycling hopefully what is trough growth, right. And we've got significant growth opportunities as we've laid out. And the cost, they're going to kind of go away. So a lot of people thought Amazon wasn't going to make a lot of money until he did, right? That's -- I think it's that simple.

所以——為什麼這個簡單模型，Michael，也就是說我正在跨越投資高峰，同時也在跨越（希望是）谷底的成長，對吧。而且我們如同已經闡述的，擁有顯著的成長機會。而成本會逐步消退。所以很多人曾經以為亞馬遜不會賺很多錢，直到它真的賺到為止，對吧？這——我認為就這麼簡單。

Think about -- yes, I think the key is don't take this cost structure into your model right now. You're looking at the a peak cost structure, both from capital and an expense perspective. These galleries that we're opening are the most expensive galleries that we've opened, both from a capital and a cost point of view.

想想看——是的，我認為關鍵在於：現在不要把這個成本結構放進你的模型裡。你看到的是成本結構的高峰，無論是資本面還是費用面。我們正在開設的這些畫廊，是我們開過最昂貴的畫廊，無論從資本投入或成本角度來看都是如此。

Got you. Very helpful. So put it in parlance, the investment community would think about it is essentially, this is the peak of the disruption, there will be significant same-brand growth that will lead to sizable margin expansion, especially as the investments moderate.

了解。非常有幫助。所以用投資社群會理解的說法來講，本質上，這是顛覆的高峰期；同品牌的顯著成長將帶來可觀的利潤率擴張，尤其是在投資趨於溫和之後。

Now the counterpoint would be, hey, we're living in a world of high uncertainty between the geopolitical, technological and other factors. So what would be the sensitivity to your outlook for free cash flow in the event that sales in the back half don't materialize like you would expect.

現在反方觀點會是：嘿，我們正處在一個高度不確定的世界，地緣政治、科技以及其他因素交織。那麼，如果下半年銷售未如你預期般實現，你對自由現金流展望的敏感度會是什麼？

And without asking you to show your hand, but it is important to the investment case, what options would you pursue in the event you needed more financial flexibility to execute on your strategy?

在不要求你亮出底牌的前提下，但這對投資論點很重要：如果你需要更大的財務彈性來執行策略，你會採取哪些選項？

Yes. I think it's a great question, Michael. Look, we've got the ability to pull back investments further, right? When I think about the major strategic investments that we had to decide to go international, invest into Europe, years ago, right? These weren't short-term decisions.

是的。我認為這是個很好的問題，Michael。你看，我們有能力進一步縮減投資，對吧？當我想到那些重大的策略性投資——我們多年前決定走向國際化、投資歐洲，對吧？這些都不是短期決策。

These were five, six, seven, eight years ago, right? We're making some of these decisions and investments. And those decisions are easy -- are not easy to pull back on, right? But we're cycling those. We've got a lot of flexibility.

那是五、六、七、八年前，對吧？我們做出其中一些決策與投資。而那些決策要——要回撤並不容易，對吧？但我們正在跨越那個週期。我們有很大的彈性。

When you think about the next wave of investments, whether it's expanding in North America, whether it's expanding in Europe, you're looking at much smaller investments, you're looking at much more flexible real estate, many more choices, et cetera, et cetera.

當你想到下一波投資，不論是在北美擴張，或是在歐洲擴張，你看到的是規模小得多的投資，你看到的是更具彈性的房地產選擇、更多的選項，等等等等。

And you're just not going to have the same kind of cost. I mean, we're going to -- the cost of building some of the new concepts that we've laid out, just the way we're thinking about deploying capital in North America through compounds and ecosystems and secondary market galleries that are in the 15,000 to 20,000 square foot range.

而且你不會再有同樣等級的成本。我的意思是，我們將——我們所提出的一些新概念的建置成本；以及我們在北美透過複合式據點（compounds）與生態系（ecosystems）、以及位於次級市場、面積約15,000到20,000平方英尺的畫廊來配置資本的思路。

Just the real estate risk, the investment risk of those, the financial participation of developers and landlords is much higher than when you're investing in major cities internationally. It's just a very different investment cadence.

這些項目的不動產風險、投資風險，以及開發商與房東的財務參與程度，都遠高於你在國際主要城市投資時的情況。這完全是不同的投資節奏。

And we just have a lot -- and you don't have the same time horizon, right? So there's just a lot more flexibility. And -- so when I look at -- I would say, peak investment, peak risk right now. You're looking at peak investment, peak risk. And who knows from day-to-day or hour-to-hour about the geopolitical and economic environment.

而且我們就是有很多——同時你的時間跨度也不一樣，對吧？所以彈性大得多。而且——所以當我看——我會說，現在是投資高峰、風險高峰。你看到的是投資高峰、風險高峰。至於地緣政治與經濟環境，誰也不知道每天、甚至每小時會怎麼變。

Of course, this is -- it's kind of different times. And there's major news headlines are made by tweaks and post today, right, and they happen all day long. So I just think that if you're just trying to say, okay, how do I think about the go forward? There's just a lot less risk -- there's a lot more risk, I'd say, over the last couple of years than over the next couple of years.

當然，這——算是不同的時代。而且重大新聞標題往往是由今天的一個小調整和一則貼文所引發，對吧？而且一整天都在發生。所以我只是認為，如果你只是想說，好吧，我該如何看待未來？我會說，過去幾年的風險更高——相較之下，未來幾年的風險反而更低。

I mean, there's -- is there further risk in the housing market? There always could be further risk. There always could be other things. I mean, could the war escalate? Could China try to take Taiwan? Could -- yes, there's a lot of things that can go the wrong way. We can all kind of imagine what those look like.

我的意思是——房市還會有進一步風險嗎？永遠都有可能有進一步風險。永遠也可能有其他事情。我的意思是，戰爭會升級嗎？中國會試圖拿下台灣嗎？會——是的，有很多事情可能往壞的方向走。我們都可以大致想像那些情境會是什麼樣子。

But it's no different in calculating what the federal funds rate is going to be, right? Like everybody has been wrong on that. And unfortunately, that's been bad for our business, right? They're supposed to be three cuts to the federal funds rate this year.

但這跟推算聯邦基金利率會是多少沒有不同，對吧？像是大家在這件事上都判錯了。而不幸的是，這對我們的業務不利，對吧？原本預期今年聯邦基金利率會降息三次。

Now it looks like there's going to be no cuts, then there might be hikes. Does that reap some short-term risk? It does. Can we navigate through that? We can -- do we have more upside to downside in the second half from a revenue demand and revenue point of view, we do.

現在看起來可能不會降息，甚至可能升息。那會帶來一些短期風險嗎？會。我們能否因應？我們可以——從營收需求與營收的角度來看，下半年上行空間大於下行風險，我們確實如此認為。

But I kind of say, look, if I was on the outside of this today and I had the information that the outside world has that we're giving you today. I'd say it's or you could -- I would -- look, I bought the stock at what, $2.16 a share, I bought $10 million of the stock. I was wrong, which is at the low point.

但我大概會說，你看，如果我今天站在外部，手上只有外界所擁有、而我們今天提供給你們的資訊。我會說，這是——或者你也可以——我會——你看，我在每股2.16美元買了股票，我買了1,000萬美元的股票。我判錯了，那其實是在低點。

But I don't see too much more downside risk in the model. Most of the work is behind us building the galleries, getting the people trained, bringing up restaurants internationally. We -- the product side, I think, is a lot less risky. We're not going into some unknown aesthetic or trend we're betting on what is kind of the biggest market, the traditional classic market. And it just so happens, if you look at the trend that's going to come through that is going to be the next trend.

但我看不出模型還有太多更大的下行風險。大部分工作都已經在我們身後：建置畫廊、訓練人員、在國際市場把餐廳做起來。我們——我認為產品端的風險小得多。我們不是要進入某種未知的美學或趨勢、去押注什麼；我們押注的是最大的一塊市場——傳統經典市場。而且剛好，如果你看即將出現的趨勢，那將會是下一個趨勢。

So -- but yes, your question is correct. We have toggles that we can pull. We have asset that we can monetize. And we're pretty good at navigating through times like this. We've got -- yes, this is my 26 year here. So I've seen cycles and the teams seem cycles, and we've navigated through, I would face somewhat similar times, not completely similar times.

所以——但沒錯，你的問題是對的。我們有可以拉動的槓桿。我們有可以變現的資產。而且我們相當擅長在這種時期中穿越。我們有——是的，這是我在這裡的第26年。所以我看過景氣循環，團隊也看過循環；我們也一路因應走過——我會說某種程度上類似的時期，但並非完全相同的時期。

Brad Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Brad Thomas，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

Gary, first, I wanted to follow up a bit more about the RH Estates line. And you, I believe, alluded to working more with designers and decorators in this. And so I was hoping you could talk a bit more if the selling process or how you go to market needs to be different on this line that seems to have so much potential for you.

Gary，首先我想再追問一下 RH Estates 這條產品線。我記得你提到在這方面會更多與設計師與裝飾師合作。所以我想請你多談一點，這條看起來對你們很有潛力的產品線，在銷售流程或上市推廣（go-to-market）方式上是否需要有所不同。

Well, we do a big business with design -- interior designers today. We have, I think, like I outlined in the my comments that we have multiple businesses embedded in our galleries. We have a trade team that services interior designer and decorators that's a meaningful part of our business. We think it will become a bigger part of our business, especially with the launch of RH Bespoke Furniture and RH Couture Upholstery because that's going to open up the ability to have kind of more customizable product from a size fabric, finish, so on and so forth. And that will open up -- I think it should open up that market pretty significantly.

嗯，我們目前與設計——室內設計師——的合作本來就有很大的業務量。我想，正如我在評論中概述的，我們的畫廊裡其實嵌入了多種業務。我們有一個貿易（trade）團隊，為室內設計師與裝飾師提供服務，這是我們業務中相當重要的一部分。我們認為這會成為更大的一部分，特別是隨著 RH Bespoke Furniture 與 RH Couture Upholstery 的推出，因為那將開啟提供更可客製化產品的能力，包含尺寸、布料、表面處理等各方面。而這將打開——我認為應該會相當顯著地打開——那個市場。

We have some other strategies to address that market that you'll hear more about that will kind of support what we're doing from a marketing point of view.

我們還有一些其他策略來切入那個市場，你們之後會聽到更多，這些策略會在行銷層面支援我們正在做的事情。

So yes, Estate, I think, is when you think -- again, if you think about kind of the high-end part of the business that we're going to address with the Estates, and that's just kind of the beginning. We'll also address that throughout the entire brand. But let's say, a stage represents the launch of RH Bespoke Furniture and the launch of RH Couture Upholstery kind of framing those. Think about those across the whole business long term.

所以是的，Estate 我認為——再說一次——當你想到我們將透過 Estates 去切入的高端業務部分時，那其實只是開始。我們也會在整個品牌範圍內去覆蓋那個層級。但比方說，某個階段代表 RH Bespoke Furniture 的推出，以及 RH Couture Upholstery 的推出，算是把這些框起來。長期來看，請把它們視為橫跨整個業務的布局。

That's helpful. If I could ask a follow-up on the 2030 margin targets. Just wondering if there's any high-level framework to think about perhaps how International fits into that, and how much mix or leverage of sale -- from sales factors into that?

這很有幫助。如果我可以追問一下 2030 年的毛利率/利潤率目標。我想了解是否有任何高層次的框架可以用來思考國際業務在其中如何定位，以及銷售的組合或規模槓桿（leverage of sale）在其中占多少比重？

Yes, I mean, we have some data now. We kind of know as we've opened some of these how they're evolving, how to think about how they might evolve and grow. And so I think we have very reasonable targets internationally, mixed into this. I don't think there's anything that's a stretch perspective. So when you look at -- you just look at the total composition of kind of the top line accelerating in the out years to 12% growth.

是的，我是說，我們現在已經有一些數據了。我們大致知道，隨著我們開出一些據點，它們如何演進、該如何思考它們可能如何演進與成長。所以我認為我們在國際市場的目標非常合理，也已經混合納入這裡面。我不認為有任何是以「勉強拉高」的角度來看。所以當你看——你只要看整體構成，頂線在未來幾年加速到 12% 成長。

I think the way I'd think about that is you've got about 4 to 5 points from the platform expansion, you've got 3 to 4 points, maybe 5 points from the product expansion. And you've got -- at some point here, we think, there's a couple of points from the housing market coming back. I mean, I don't think we're going to be in a 9 or 10 year downturn of the housing market. Let's hope not. But if it doesn't come back, it's not like we've got a big number out there for the housing market.

我會這樣思考：平台擴張大約貢獻 4 到 5 個百分點；產品擴張貢獻 3 到 4 個百分點，可能到 5 個百分點。另外——在某個時間點——我們認為房市回升會帶來幾個百分點。我的意思是，我不認為房市會陷入 9 年或 10 年的下行。希望不會。但即使它沒有回來，也不是說我們把房市的貢獻假設成一個很大的數字。

We've got kind of a 2 to 3 point hope in the out years of that plan that we'll see some lift in the housing market. If we see a lift in the housing market, you could see -- I mean, based on where it's been, I mean, you could argue there's a 10 point lift from the housing market in the out years. And if that happens, you don't have us growing at 10% to 12%, you have us growing at 18% to 22%.

在那個計畫的後期年份，我們大概抱持 2 到 3 個百分點的期待，希望房市能帶來一些拉抬。如果房市真的回升，你可能會看到——我是說，以它過去的水準來看——你可以主張在後期年份房市能帶來 10 個百分點的拉抬。如果那真的發生，你看到的就不是我們成長 10% 到 12%，而是成長 18% 到 22%。

Marius Morar, Zelman.

Marius Morar，Zelman。

Just a quick question on the growth outlook for next year. Gary, I think on -- in the video, you mentioned that it's a bit conservative. I was just wondering at the low end, do you sort of embed any sort of deterioration in the housing market or maybe an increase in interest rates?

關於明年的成長展望，我有個簡短問題。Gary，我記得你在影片裡提到這個展望有點保守。我想請問在低端情境下，你們是否納入了房市進一步惡化，或是利率上升之類的因素？

Yes. I think we're conservative throughout the second half. I mean, obviously, we have embedded the growth from our platform and the new galleries and the galleries that are cycling, and we've got growth from Estates and some of the newness and expansion of the assortment in Interiors and Modern.

是的。我認為我們在下半年整體上都偏保守。我的意思是，很明顯地，我們已經把平台成長、新畫廊開出、以及進入比較基期（cycling）的畫廊所帶來的成長納入；同時也納入了 Estates 的成長，以及 Interiors 和 Modern 在新品與品類擴張上的一些成長。

But do we have the housing market getting worse? I'd say we have embedded in this -- the current environment right now, which I believe is worse and mostly from a geopolitical point of view and a perception point of view, of more things can go wrong then maybe can go right.

但我們是否假設房市會變得更糟？我會說，我們在這裡面納入的是——目前的現況——而我認為現況更糟主要是從地緣政治與市場觀感的角度來看：大家覺得「可能出錯的事情」比「可能變好的事情」更多。

And I think that's how the market's generally risk times like these, when you've got uncertainty and you've got global tensions and war and oil issues and the endless amount of things that oil impacts, right? So, yes. I mean -- but did the housing market gets better when interest rates came down somewhat? Not really. Is -- the housing market going to get worse if they go back.

而我認為市場在像這樣的風險時期通常就是這樣：你有不確定性、有全球緊張局勢、有戰爭、有油價問題，以及油價會影響的無數事情，對吧？所以，是的。我是說——但當利率稍微下來時，房市有變好嗎？其實沒有。那——如果利率再回升，房市會變得更糟嗎。

If we get 25, 50, 75 basis points, you get three hikes, I don't think it gets much worse. I think you've got to think back in history and say, in 1978, we sold -- there's 4.06 million homes sold, and that was a low point. And in 2003, '04 and '05, you had 4.06 million homes sold on average, 4 million to 4.06 million of somewhere about 4.03 million. And that's -- and that's with 53 -- I think it's 53% more people, right?

如果只是 25、50、75 個基點，升三次，我不認為會糟很多。我覺得你得回頭看歷史：1978 年我們賣出——成交——406 萬戶，那是低點。而在 2003、2004、2005 年，你平均也是 406 萬戶左右，約 400 萬到 406 萬之間，大概 403 萬左右。而那——而那是在多了 53% 人口的情況下，對吧？

So it's hard to believe it gets worse than this to get worse in this for a small period. I mean, none of us have seen a world war in our lifetimes, right? Is there a risk of a world war? I don't think so. I mean I think, cooler heads will prevail. But this is uncertain times.

所以很難相信它會比現在更糟，至少不太可能在短期內變得更糟。我的意思是，我們這一生都沒見過世界大戰，對吧？有世界大戰的風險嗎？我不這麼認為。我想，理性終究會占上風。但這確實是不確定的時期。

So I think the -- whether the interest rates go up or down 25 to 75 basis points. I don't think it's going to change much in the housing market. If the interest rates go up 300 or 400 basis points, I think that's different. I think they go down 100 basis points with pricing coming down, which is pricing is coming down across the market, I think you're going to see a housing market acceleration.

所以我認為——利率上上下下 25 到 75 個基點，我不認為會對房市造成太大改變。如果利率上升 300 或 400 個基點，我覺得那就不一樣了。我認為如果利率下降 100 個基點，同時房價下來——而房價確實正在整個市場下修——我認為你會看到房市加速。

So I'd say short term, handicap it, as even. I think we're seeing pressure right now. Longer term, I think you have to kind of handicap it as a positive because we've never we've never seen -- we're now in the fourth year of the worst housing market in 40 to 50 years. That hasn't happened in my lifetime, I've never seen two down years, seen 1.5 down years. in my career. I've never seen three down years, and I surely never seen a four down year. I don't think anybody has. So how long does it stay here? I don't know. It's all today the new normal and build out from here.

所以我會說短期來看，把它當作五五波。我認為我們現在正感受到壓力。長期來看，我覺得你必須把它當作偏正面，因為我們從未——我們現在正處於 40 到 50 年來最糟房市的第 4 年。這在我有生之年沒發生過；在我的職涯裡，我從沒看過連續兩年下行，只看過 1.5 年的下行。我從沒看過連續三年下行，我更是從沒看過連續四年下行。我想沒有人看過。所以它還會在這裡停留多久？我不知道。現在一切都成了新的常態，然後就從這裡往外推演。

At some point, I think how the market comes back. And I think it's more likely to come back than go down. But if the interest rates are moving 50 to 75 basis points to 100 basis points, I don't know if that moves the needle plus or minus. On the minus side, you're getting closer to affordability, right. On the upside, you could have some moderate slowing, I think the bigger thing is if we have real inflation and interest rates have to rise 300, 400 basis points, that's a problem.

在某個時點，我會想市場會如何回升。而且我認為回升的可能性比下跌更大。但如果利率變動是50到75個基點、甚至100個基點，我不確定這是否會對結果產生明顯的正面或負面影響。從負面來看，你會更接近可負擔性門檻，對吧。從正面來看，可能會有一些溫和的放緩；但我認為更大的問題是，如果我們出現真正的通膨、而利率必須上升300、400個基點，那就麻煩了。

That's helpful. And maybe a quick follow-up. In the first quarter guidance, do you also embed any drag from the back order and special order similar to the drag you had in the fourth quarter?

這很有幫助。也許再快速追問一下。在第一季的指引中，你們是否也納入了來自積壓訂單與特殊訂單的拖累，類似你們在第四季所承受的拖累？

Jack, do you want to take that?

Jack，你要回答這題嗎？

Yes, that's something that's going to take probably until the second half to fully resolve itself just because of the complexities of resourcing. There’s something that’s -- .

是的，這件事可能要到下半年才能完全解決，主要是因為資源配置的複雜性。這是某件事，這是-- 。

We -- that drag in, yes.

我們——是的，那個拖累有。

Is it getting worse in the first quarter?

第一季會變得更糟嗎？

There's some modest impact that that's over and above what we felt in Q4. And then so then we'll see the resolution of that in the second half.

確實有一些溫和的影響，會高於我們在第四季感受到的程度。然後我們會在下半年看到這件事的解決。

It's basically from the amount of resourcing and just the new factories being brought up in different countries, being able to ramp up fast enough. And so that's the biggest hit is coming from tariff-related resourcing of furniture, outdoor furniture, specifically metal outdoor furniture. Lighting is a big one. Rugs is a big one, and furniture is a big one. If you think about our business and you've got -- you take the furniture part of the business includes about 80%. And then you take lighting and rugs, which are the next biggest pieces, those are all being impacted.

基本上是因為所需的資源配置量，以及在不同國家新工廠的導入，能否足夠快地拉升產能。因此最大的衝擊來自與關稅相關的家具供應重整，戶外家具，特別是金屬戶外家具。燈具是一大項。地毯是一大項，家具也是一大項。如果你看我們的業務，你會看到——家具這一塊約占80%。接著是燈具和地毯，這兩個是接下來最大的部分，這些都受到影響。

But you've got to by far, this part of our business has been all impacted in a bigger way, resourcing things like bedding, pillows, throws, accessories, picture frames, things like that, which are not from a percentage point of view, not a very big part of our business, much easier to resource those things, much easier to move picture frames, hello cases, throes, tabletop, blastware, accessories, things like that much, much more easier. When you talk about ramping furniture factories, lighting factories, rug factories, moving those categories just more complex.

但你會看到，迄今為止，我們業務中這一部分受到的影響更大；相較之下，像寢具、枕頭、毯子、配件、相框等這類的供應重整，從占比角度來看並不是我們業務中很大的一部分，也更容易重新配置來源；搬移相框、收納盒、毯子、桌上用品、玻璃器皿、配件等，容易得多、容易得多。但當你談到家具工廠、燈具工廠、地毯工廠的爬坡，把這些品類移轉就更複雜。

And so those have been just slower to scale and transition. And when you think about just the being on the manufacturing side or manufacturing partners moving from one country to another, building factories, scaling them.

因此這些在擴產與轉換上一直比較慢。而當你想到製造端，或製造合作夥伴從一個國家移到另一個國家、建廠、擴產。

And then all of a sudden, having tariffs change and going, Oh, God, what do I do now? By doing the right thing, I mean, think about the rug business. And we -- for a while there, I mean, India was a big source of drugs, and you get hit with the 50% tariff and you're sourcing rugs to other countries. There's not that many places that have that kind of capacity to move those businesses.

然後突然之間關稅改變了，你就會想：天啊，我現在該怎麼辦？我說做正確的事，是指想想地毯業務。而我們——有一段時間，我是說，印度曾是地毯的重要來源地，結果你被課了50%的關稅，你就得把地毯採購轉到其他國家。但能夠承接那種產能、把這些業務移轉過去的地方並不多。

So same thing with lighting. Lighting is very different than any other kind of an item. Again, the more accessories, more seasonal parts of the business, you want to resource Christmas ornaments, things like that, very simple. When you're resourcing the core part of our business, much more complex.

燈具也是同樣的情況。燈具跟任何其他類型的商品都很不一樣。同樣地，配件、季節性較強的業務，例如你要重新配置聖誕飾品之類的來源，非常簡單。但當你在重新配置我們業務的核心部分時，就複雜得多。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Gary Friedman for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回給Gary Friedman做結語。

Thank you. Well, thank you, everyone. We know this is a an uncertain time in our business. Hopefully, we've shed some light to give you more certainty and more confidence in our outlook and our strategy. We believe this is the most important period in our history, and we've never been more excited about the outlook and what we believe will be the outcome.

謝謝。嗯，謝謝各位。我們知道，這是我們業務上一段充滿不確定性的時期。希望我們已經提供了一些說明，讓你們對我們的展望與策略有更多確定性與信心。我們相信這是我們歷史上最重要的時期，而我們對前景以及我們相信將會達成的結果，從未如此興奮。

So we look forward to talking to you soon. Thank you for all the leadership and partnership from our teams and our partners all around the world. Everybody is working hard to kind of get to the next place. And so thank you.

所以我們期待很快再與各位交流。感謝我們全球各地團隊與合作夥伴所展現的領導力與夥伴關係。大家都在努力工作，想要邁向下一個階段。所以謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。