Resideo Technologies Inc (REZI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Kathleen, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Resideo 2024 fourth quarter and full-year earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

    午安.我叫凱瑟琳,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加 Resideo 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。(操作員指示)謝謝。

  • I would like to hand the conference over to your host today, Chris Lee, Global Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

    今天,我想將會議交給主持人、全球投資者關係主管 Chris Lee。您可以開始您的會議了。

  • Chris Lee - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Chris Lee - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Kathleen. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Resideo's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call.

    謝謝,凱瑟琳。大家下午好,感謝您參加 Resideo 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

  • On today's call will be Jay Geldmacher, Resideo's Chief Executive Officer; Mike Carlet, our Chief Financial Officer; Rob Aarnes, President of Resideo's ADI Global Distribution business; and Tom Surran, President of Resideo's Products and Solutions business. A copy of our earnings release and related presentation materials are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at investor.resideo.com.

    今天的電話會議由 Resideo 的執行長 Jay Geldmacher 主持;我們的財務長 Mike Carlet; Resideo ADI 全球經銷業務總裁 Rob Aarnes;以及 Resideo 產品和解決方案業務總裁 Tom Surran。我們的收益報告和相關簡報資料的副本可在我們網站 investor.resideo.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

  • We would like to remind you that this afternoon's presentation contains forward-looking statements. Statements other than historical facts made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in Resideo's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. We identified the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings.

    我們想提醒您,今天下午的演示包含前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議中除歷史事實以外的陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述,並不保證未來的績效或結果,並涉及許多風險和不確定性。由於多種因素,包括 Resideo 不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的因素,實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。該公司不承擔更新任何此類前瞻性陳述的義務。我們在 10-K 表年度報告和其他美國證券交易委員會文件中確定了影響我們績效的主要風險和不確定因素。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Jay.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給傑伊。

  • Jay Geldmacher - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jay Geldmacher - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Chris, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. Let me open by saying how happy I am with how the Products & Solutions and ADI business segments finished 2024 strongly, delivering revenue growth, healthy gross margin expansion and record free cash flow generation in a global macroeconomic environment that is still mixed.

    謝謝你,克里斯,也謝謝大家今天的參加。首先,我要說的是,我對產品和解決方案以及 ADI 業務部門在 2024 年的強勁表現感到非常高興,在仍然好壞參半的全球宏觀經濟環境中實現了收入增長、健康的毛利率擴張和創紀錄的自由現金流創造。

  • As a result of our team's continued excellent execution, Resideo exceeded the high end of the range for all the metrics we provided in our annual financial outlook. Reported total net revenue of approximately $6.8 billion grew 8% year-over-year. Total adjusted EBITDA grew 17% year-over-year to approximately $700 million.

    由於我們團隊持續出色的執行力,Resideo 的所有指標都超出了我們在年度財務展望中提供的範圍上限。報告稱總淨收入約為 68 億美元,年增 8%。調整後總 EBITDA 年成長 17%,達到約 7 億美元。

  • Total cash generated from operations was $444 million, a new record and was well above our outlook of at least $375 million.

    營運產生的現金總額達到 4.44 億美元,創下新高,遠高於我們預期的至少 3.75 億美元。

  • Let's now go into some of the annual highlights for each business segment. Products & Solutions continued to improve its fundamentals, experiencing growth in organic revenue and gross margins in 2024. The year-over-year annual change in organic net revenue improved approximately 300 basis points versus 2023, resulting in a positive growth rate that rounds to flat year-over-year. Organic growth excludes the impact of currency and the divestiture of Genesis. This was due to realized price increases across substantially all product categories, offset by volume declines.

    現在讓我們來看看每個業務部門的一些年度亮點。產品和解決方案基本面持續改善,2024 年有機收入和毛利率將成長。與 2023 年相比,有機淨收入的年度同比變化提高了約 300 個基點,從而實現了與去年同期持平的正增長率。有機成長不包括貨幣和 Genesis 剝離的影響。這是由於幾乎所有產品類別的價格都實現了上漲,但銷售量卻下降了。

  • Reported gross margins for 2021 expanded by 240 basis points year-over-year due to structural improvements that increased operational efficiency. Our commitment to new product introduction was evident in 2024 with the launch of the Focus Pro thermostat and VISTA security products in the last 2 quarters. And customer reception and demand for these products continues to be very positive. We are excited for these products and for a range of new products scheduled to be introduced in 2025.

    由於結構性改進提高了營運效率,2021 年報告的毛利率年增了 240 個基點。我們對 2024 年推出新產品的承諾顯而易見,我們在過去兩個季度推出了 Focus Pro 恆溫器和 VISTA 安全產品。客戶對這些產品的接受度和需求持續保持良好。我們對這些產品以及計劃於 2025 年推出的一系列新產品感到非常興奮。

  • ADI 2% organic net revenue growth year-over-year in 2024 after excluding the impact of currency and the acquisition of Snap One. ADI overcame soft market conditions during the first half of the year with digital channels and product categories such as video surveillance, residential security and fire and access control showing second half strength. We acquired Snap One in June 2024, and its integration into ADI continues to progress very nicely. We achieved approximately $17 million of run rate synergies in 2024, approximately 40% higher than expected.

    在剔除貨幣影響和收購 Snap One 的影響後,ADI 2024 年有機淨收入將年增 2%。 ADI 克服了上半年疲軟的市場環境,憑藉數位管道和視訊監控、住宅安全、消防和門禁控制等產品類別在下半年展現出強勁勢頭。我們在 2024 年 6 月收購了 Snap One,與 ADI 的整合進展順利。我們在 2024 年實現了約 1700 萬美元的運行率協同效應,比預期高出約 40%。

  • In summary, we had a strong end to 2024, and this momentum is setting us up well for continued revenue growth, gross margin expansion and durable free cash generation.

    總而言之,我們在 2024 年取得了強勁的成績,這一勢頭為我們持續的收入成長、毛利率擴大和持久的自由現金產生奠定了良好基礎。

  • Before I hand the call off to Tom, Rob and Mike to talk about the drivers of the fourth quarter, we want to comment that the global macro environment remains mixed with continued U.S. dollar strength and the potential for changes in the tariff environment adding uncertainty to 2025. The Resideo team is prepared with comprehensive planning to address potential tariff changes, including detailed actions that are designed to address the potential impact. Examples include commercial actions, price increases and operational and supply chain moves.

    在我將電話轉給湯姆、羅布和麥克討論第四季度的驅動因素之前,我們想評論一下,全球宏觀環境仍然喜憂參半,美元持續走強,關稅環境可能發生變化,這給 2025 年增加了不確定性。Resideo 團隊已準備好全面的規劃來應對潛在的關稅變化,包括旨在應對潛在影響的詳細行動。例子包括商業行動、價格上漲以及營運和供應鏈變動。

  • Let us now turn the call over to Tom, who will provide additional details on the fourth quarter for Products & Solutions.

    現在讓我們將電話轉給湯姆,他將提供有關產品和解決方案第四季度的更多詳細資訊。

  • Thomas Surran - President - Products and Solutions Business

    Thomas Surran - President - Products and Solutions Business

  • Thanks, Jay. The fourth quarter was another period of solid execution and operational progress for Products & Solutions, highlighted by the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year gross margin expansion. Gross margin continues to expand due to structural improvements that increased operational efficiency. In the quarter, gross margin was 40.8%, up 130 basis points year-over-year.

    謝謝,傑伊。第四季是產品和解決方案業務執行和營運取得穩步進展的又一個時期,其中突出的是連續第七個季度實現毛利率同比增長。由於結構性改進提高了營運效率,毛利率持續擴大。本季毛利率為40.8%,年增130個基點。

  • Moving on to net revenue. After excluding the impact of currency and the divestiture of Genesis, fourth quarter organic net revenue declined approximately 1% year-over-year. Our HVAC OEM, electrical distribution and retail channels continue to be strong. However, these results were offset by softness in the security channel. Let me walk through the puts and takes.

    繼續討論淨收入。剔除貨幣影響和 Genesis 剝離的影響後,第四季有機淨收入年減約 1%。我們的 HVAC OEM、電力分銷和零售通路持續保持強勁。然而,這些結果因安全渠道的疲軟而被抵消。讓我來介紹一下其中的優缺點。

  • The HVAC channel achieved both price and volume growth in the quarter, buoyed in part by the successful launch and shipment of the connected and non-connected Focus Pro thermostat devices during the quarter. Inventory levels of our products within the key North American HVAC channel continued to be healthy.

    本季度,HVAC 通路實現了價格和銷售量的成長,部分原因是本季成功推出和出貨了連網和非連網 Focus Pro 恆溫器設備。我們產品在北美主要 HVAC 渠道的庫存水準繼續保持健康。

  • The OEM channel was another bright spot in the quarter, posting growth for the first time in many quarters. OEM posted a double-digit growth percentage year-over-year, led by strong EMEA demand for boiler, furnace and other products that drove increases in both price and volumes.

    OEM通路是本季的另一個亮點,多年來首次實現成長。OEM 年成長了兩位數,這主要得益於 EMEA 地區對鍋爐、熔爐和其他產品的強勁需求,推動了價格和銷量的雙雙上漲。

  • The retail and electrical distribution channels continued to perform well in the fourth quarter. Volumes of our BRK-branded safety products sold to professionals through our electrical distribution partners continue to be healthy. We saw both an uptick in the number of homebuilder relationships and an increase in content per new home due to the quality and trust associated with our BRK product line. Those same attributes are also associated with our First Alert and Honeywell Home brands. Retail sales were again strong, near the record high established in the third quarter.

    零售和電器分銷管道在第四季度繼續表現良好。我們透過電力分銷合作夥伴向專業人士銷售的 BRK 品牌安全產品數量持續保持良好。由於我們的 BRK 產品線的品質和信任,我們看到房屋建築商關係數量上升,並且每套新房的內容也有所增加。這些相同的屬性也與我們的 First Alert 和 Honeywell Home 品牌相關。零售額再次強勁成長,接近第三季創下的歷史最高水準。

  • The security channel continues to experience soft market conditions. However, I am encouraged by 2 things in the quarter. First, security sales with a large customer were better than anticipated. And second, customer reception for the new VISTA product introduced in the quarter was very positive. This new product is the first among the full line as we upgrade the VISTA portfolio.

    安防通路市場狀況持續疲軟。然而,本季有兩件事令我感到鼓舞。首先,針對大客戶的證券銷售優於預期。其次,客戶對本季推出的 VISTA 新產品的反應非常正面。這款新產品是我們升級 VISTA 產品線後全系列的第一款產品。

  • I remain excited about our return to a regular cadence of new product introduction and the profitable growth opportunities we are targeting.

    我對我們恢復定期推出新產品的節奏以及我們所瞄準的獲利成長機會感到興奮。

  • I started my comments by stating that the business is making operational progress amidst an ongoing turnaround. A primary goal of Resideo has been to get products and solutions healthier and in a better position for future profitable growth. We have made meaningful progress towards this goal in 2024 and believe we will soon capitalize on this momentum. We are energized about the profitable growth opportunities associated with the new products slated in 2025, the first of which was the matter-enabled smart thermostat announced at the Consumer Electronics Show. As we release more new products, we look to sustain and improve upon the year-over-year gross margin expansion trend we have achieved.

    我首先要說的是,公司業務在持續好轉的過程中,正在取得營運進展。Resideo 的主要目標是使產品和解決方案更加健康,並為未來的獲利成長提供更好的位置。我們在2024年朝著這一目標取得了有意義的進展,並相信我們很快就會利用這一勢頭。我們對 2025 年新產品帶來的獲利成長機會充滿信心,其中第一款產品是在消費性電子展上發布的支援物質的智慧恆溫器。隨著我們發布更多新產品,我們希望維持並提高我們已經實現的毛利率逐年擴大的趨勢。

  • With that, let's turn the call over to Rob.

    說完這些,我們將電話轉給 Rob。

  • Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

    Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

  • Thanks, Tom. ADI achieved 39% year-over-year growth in reported net revenue in the fourth quarter. Growth was driven by the inorganic contribution from the acquisition of Snap One, broad-based organic growth across product categories, and accelerating digital revenue. All of my following remarks on growth year-over-year represent organic business activities and do not include the impact of currency or the Snap One acquisition, unless otherwise noted. In the fourth quarter, organic net revenue growth was 9% year-over-year driven by strength across nearly every product category and from large commercial customer activity.

    謝謝,湯姆。ADI公司第四季報告淨收入年增39%。成長主要得益於收購 Snap One 帶來的無機貢獻、跨產品類別的廣泛有機成長以及數位收入的加速成長。我以下關於同比增長的所有評論均代表有機業務活動,不包括貨幣或 Snap One 收購的影響,除非另有說明。第四季度,有機淨收入年增 9%,這得益於幾乎所有產品類別的強勁成長以及大型商業客戶的活動。

  • Our daily sales average in the quarter achieved another record high. From a product category perspective, we saw double-digit percentage growth year-over-year in multiple categories with notable contributions from the video surveillance and fire product categories, partially offset by a low single-digit percentage decline in the residential audiovisual category. We continue to achieve healthy expansion into our strategic growth verticals of professional audiovisual and datacom.

    本季我們的日均銷售量再創歷史新高。從產品類別來看,多個類別同比增長均達到兩位數,其中視頻監控和消防產品類別貢獻顯著,但住宅視聽類別的個位數低百分比下降部分抵消了這一增長。我們繼續在專業視聽和數據通訊等策略性成長垂直領域實現健康擴張。

  • E-commerce net revenue grew 22% year-over-year. achieving another quarter of sequential revenue dollar growth and a new record high in daily sales average. Our ongoing strategic investment in e-commerce continues to yield positive returns. E-commerce is structurally accretive to total ADI gross margin and is becoming a bigger contributor to total gross profit dollars.

    電子商務淨收入年增22%。實現了又一個季度的連續收入成長和日均銷售量創下新高。我們對電子商務的持續策略投資持續產生積極的回報。電子商務在結構上增加了 ADI 公司的總毛利率,並且正在成為總毛利的更大貢獻者。

  • Our investments also position ADI well as a leading omnichannel distributor. During the quarter, we enhanced the on-site search experience using a leading AI product discovery technology and saw an almost immediate improvement in conversion rates. We are really excited about our exclusive brands. Net revenue increased 34% year-over-year, and we launched almost 80 new products in the quarter. We are already seeing the strategic benefit of a combined ADI and Snap One as we offer a greater amount of more profitable products across more stores to drive higher customer engagement and cross-sales opportunity.

    我們的投資也使 ADI 成為領先的全通路經銷商。在本季度,我們使用領先的人工智慧產品發現技術增強了現場搜尋體驗,並且轉換率幾乎立即提高了。我們對我們的獨家品牌感到非常興奮。淨收入年增 34%,我們在本季推出了近 80 種新產品。我們已經看到了 ADI 與 Snap One 合併後的策略優勢,因為我們可以在更多商店提供更多利潤更高的產品,從而提高客戶參與度和交叉銷售機會。

  • As Jay mentioned, the integration of Snap One is going very nicely. We have achieved approximately $17 million of run rate cost synergies in 2024 since welcoming Snap into Resideo.

    正如傑伊所提到的,Snap One 的整合進展非常順利。自 Snap 加入 Resideo 以來,我們在 2024 年實現了約 1700 萬美元的營運成本綜效。

  • As we move into year 2 of our integration, we are seeing early positive signs in exclusive brands' cross-sell opportunities that complement some of the store consolidation activity planned for 2025. Our customer-first ethos is integral to how we execute operations. It was foundational to our fourth quarter performance and is foundational to our future as we look to carry the momentum and continue driving profitable growth in our strategic focus areas, achieving further deal synergies and running an efficient organization throughout 2025.

    隨著我們進入整合的第二年,我們看到獨家品牌交叉銷售機會的早期積極跡象,這對計劃於 2025 年進行的一些門市整合活動進行了補充。我們的客戶至上精神是我們執行營運方式的核心。這是我們第四季度業績的基礎,也是我們未來的基礎,因為我們希望保持這一勢頭,繼續推動我們戰略重點領域的盈利增長,實現進一步的交易協同效應,並在整個 2025 年運營一個高效的組織。

  • Let's now turn the call over to Mike to discuss our fourth quarter's financial results and 2025 outlook.

    現在讓我們把電話轉給麥克,討論我們第四季的財務表現和 2025 年的展望。

  • Michael Carlet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Michael Carlet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Rob. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's get straight into the quarterly results, starting with revenue. Fourth quarter total company net revenue was $1.86 billion, up 21% year-over-year and up 5% on an organic basis excluding the impact of currency, the Snap One acquisition and the Genesis divestiture. Reported total company net revenue exceeded the high end of our outlook range.

    謝謝,羅布。大家下午好。讓我們直接了解季度業績,先從收入開始。第四季公司淨收入總額為 18.6 億美元,年增 21%,若不計匯率、Snap One 收購和 Genesis 資產剝離的影響,則有機成長 5%。報告顯示公司總淨收入超出了我們預期範圍的高端。

  • Both Tom and Rob spoke earlier about the drivers of that revenue and the respective businesses.

    湯姆和羅布之前都談到了收入的驅動因素和各自的業務。

  • Total company gross margin in the quarter was up 28.5%, up 100 basis points year-over-year. The increase is primarily driven by the continued operating efficiencies gained in Products & Solutions, partially offset by more competitive pricing in certain categories at ADI. Fourth quarter total company fully diluted adjusted earnings per share was $0.59 and GAAP fully diluted earnings per share was $0.08. Adjusted earnings per share was toward the high end of our outlook range. Total company adjusted EBITDA was $187 million in the quarter, growing 26% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our outlook range.

    本季公司總毛利率上漲28.5%,比去年同期上漲100個基點。成長主要得益於產品和解決方案業務持續提升的營運效率,但被 ADI 某些類別的定價競爭力提升所部分抵銷。第四季公司總攤薄調整後每股收益為 0.59 美元,GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 0.08 美元。調整後的每股盈餘接近我們預期範圍的高端。本季公司調整後的 EBITDA 總值為 1.87 億美元,年成長 26%,超出了我們預期範圍的高點。

  • The primary driver of the increase was the positive contribution from Snap One. We exceeded our annual outlook by generating $444 million of cash from operations. This was driven by better-than-usual working capital metrics that resulted in a more efficient cash conversion cycle as well as by the positive contribution from Snap One.

    成長的主要動力是 Snap One 的積極貢獻。我們的經營活動產生了 4.44 億美元的現金,超出了年度預期。這是由優於平常的營運資本指標所推動的,從而帶來了更有效率的現金轉換週期,同時也得益於 Snap One 的積極貢獻。

  • Before I provide our 2025 financial outlook, let me walk you through some of our market perspectives and forecast assumptions for 2025. Let's start with our market perspectives. We have a relatively cautious market outlook as the current macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. Despite some signals that new U.S. residential homebuilding is back to normal levels and the outlook for U.S.

    在我提供 2025 年財務展望之前,讓我先向您介紹我們對 2025 年的一些市場觀點和預測假設。讓我們從市場觀點開始。由於當前宏觀經濟環境仍不確定,我們對市場前景持相對謹慎的態度。儘管有跡象顯示美國新住宅建設已恢復正常水平,且美國住宅建設前景並不樂觀。

  • repair and remodeling has reverted to modest low single-digit percentage growth, U.S. mortgage rates remain high, the existing U.S. home resale market is still soft and inflation remains persistent globally. Our 2025 financial outlook does not include assumptions for changes in the current tariff environment. We cannot predict what tariff change will occur.

    修復和改造已恢復到適度低個位數百分比成長,美國抵押貸款利率仍然很高,現有美國房屋轉售市場仍然疲軟,全球通膨仍然持續。我們對 2025 年財務展望並不包括對當前關稅環境變化的假設。我們無法預測關稅將會發生怎樣的變化。

  • But if tariff changes implemented, then we have detailed action plans designed to substantially mitigate the impact, as Jay indicated.

    但如果實施關稅變化,那麼我們就有詳細的行動計劃,旨在大幅減輕影響,正如傑伊所說。

  • Our 2025 financial outlook is based on December 31, 2024 currency rates. Note that those was December 31, 2024, rates reflect U.S. dollar strengthening against many currencies during December of 2024. We have no assumptions in our 2025 financial outlook for future currency rate fluctuations.

    我們對 2025 年財務展望是基於 2024 年 12 月 31 日的貨幣匯率。請注意,這些是 2024 年 12 月 31 日的匯率,反映了 2024 年 12 月期間美元兌多種貨幣的走強。我們對 2025 年財務展望中未來貨幣匯率波動沒有任何假設。

  • Now our forecast assumptions. We anticipate both business segments to achieve year-over-year net revenue growth in 2025. We forecast the growth rate of ADI in '25 to be higher than products and solutions. From a linearity perspective, we expect higher revenue in the second half of '25 versus the first half, in line with our historical seasonality. Two items to note on net revenue.

    現在我們的預測假設。我們預計,2025 年兩個業務部門的淨收入都將實現年增。我們預測ADI在25年的成長率將高於產品和解決方案的成長率。從線性角度來看,我們預計 25 年下半年的收入將高於上半年,這與我們的歷史季節性一致。關於淨收入有兩點要注意。

  • Relating to ADI, we are updating our synergy target to now achieve at least $75 million of annual run rate synergies from the Snap One acquisition exiting year 3. As Rob noted, we are seeing the potential for some revenue synergies to occur earlier than anticipated. And relating to Products & Solutions, we communicated on the 2023 fourth quarter call that we expected 2024 North American residential security hardware sales with ADT to decline by approximately $100 million, with a similar additional reduction in 2025. We saw better results than expected from ADT in 2024, and we also expect a better than previously communicated impact in 2025. ADT remains an important customer, and we continue to work with them on our long-term relationship.

    關於 ADI,我們正在更新我們的協同效應目標,從收購 Snap One 的第三年開始,實現至少 7500 萬美元的年度運行率協同效應。正如 Rob 所說,我們看到一些收入協同效應可能比預期更早出現。關於產品和解決方案,我們在 2023 年第四季電話會議上表示,預計 2024 年北美住宅安全硬體銷售額(ADT)將下降約 1 億美元,2025 年也將出現類似的額外減幅。我們看到 2024 年 ADT 的結果好於預期,我們也預期 2025 年的影響將好於先前傳達的影響。ADT 仍然是我們重要的客戶,我們將繼續與他們建立長期合作關係。

  • Moving to 2025 gross margins. We forecast 100 to 150 basis points of expansion in total company gross margin versus 2024. This is supported by higher gross margins forecasted for each business segment in '25 versus 2024. We are also investing in each of the business segments in 2025 to drive future growth. This includes the strategic growth initiatives that Rob mentioned for ADI as well as driving speed to market and awareness for the new product introductions that Tom mentioned for products and solutions.

    邁向2025年的毛利率。我們預測,到 2024 年,公司整體毛利率將擴大 100 至 150 個基點。與 2024 年相比,2025 年每個業務部門的毛利率預計會更高,這為此結果提供了支持。我們也將在 2025 年對各個業務部門進行投資,以推動未來成長。這包括 Rob 提到的 ADI 的策略成長計劃,以及 Tom 提到的產品和解決方案的上市速度和新產品推出的知名度。

  • We have a durable cash flow generation engine, evidenced by our conversion of over 100% of GAAP net income into free cash flow in each of the last 2 fiscal years. In 2025, we forecast a healthy free cash flow conversion ratio, but one that will be lower than 2024 due primarily to ADI's higher capital expenditures for strategic store expansions and consolidations as well as the implementation of a new ERP system.

    我們擁有持久的現金流生成引擎,過去兩個財年,我們每年都將超過 100% 的 GAAP 淨收入轉化為自由現金流,就是明證。我們預測 2025 年的自由現金流轉換率將保持健康,但將低於 2024 年,這主要是由於 ADI 在策略性門市擴張和整合以及實施新 ERP 系統方面的資本支出增加。

  • Considering all of these assumptions, here is our 2025 financial outlook. For the full year, we expect total company net revenue to be in the range of $7.285 billion to $7.485 billion; total company adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $725 million to $805 million; total company fully diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.23 to $2.47; and cash provided by operations to be in the range of $345 million to $405 million. For the first quarter of 2025, we expect total company net revenue to be in the range of $1.72 billion to $1.77 billion; total company adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $150 million to $170 million; total company fully diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $0.27 to $0.33. Our earnings presentation includes our outlook ranges, along with some modeling assumptions, which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

    考慮到所有這些假設,以下是我們對 2025 年財務的展望。就全年而言,我們預計公司總淨營收在 72.85 億美元至 74.85 億美元之間;公司調整後 EBITDA 總值介於 7.25 億美元至 8.05 億美元之間;該公司每股完全攤薄收益總額介於 2.23 美元至 2.47 美元之間;經營活動提供的現金在 3.45 億美元至 4.05 億美元之間。2025年第一季度,我們預計公司總淨收入在17.2億美元至17.7億美元之間;公司調整後 EBITDA 總值介於 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元之間;該公司每股完全攤薄收益總額預計在 0.27 美元至 0.33 美元之間。我們的收益報告包括我們的展望範圍以及一些模型假設,可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

  • So in closing, Resideo is building upon the business and momentum it has generated while also investing for future profitable growth. New product introductions and accelerating synergies from the Snap One acquisition will contribute to growing revenue, expanding gross margins and generating durable cash from operations in 2025.

    總而言之,Resideo 正在鞏固其已產生的業務和發展勢頭,同時也為未來的獲利成長進行投資。新產品的推出和 Snap One 收購帶來的加速綜效將有助於增加收入、擴大毛利率並在 2025 年產生持久的營運現金。

  • Let's now open the call up for questions, operator.

    接線員,我們現在開始回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Cory Carpenter, JPMorgan.

    (操作員指示)摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的科里·卡彭特 (Cory Carpenter)。

  • Cory Carpenter - Analyst

    Cory Carpenter - Analyst

  • I have one and then a follow-up. So to start, just hoping you could talk a bit more about the new product innovation that you've been working on. It certainly seems to be a key theme. Maybe just expand a bit on what you've done thus far and how it's been received, and then also what you can tell us about the product road map for 2025.

    我有一個,然後有一個後續。首先,希望您能多談談您正在研究的新產品創新。這確實似乎是一個關鍵主題。也許您可以稍微擴展一下您迄今為止所做的事情以及其反響如何,然後您還可以告訴我們有關 2025 年產品路線圖的信息。

  • Thomas Surran - President - Products and Solutions Business

    Thomas Surran - President - Products and Solutions Business

  • Good question. Okay. So let's start with what we're doing. We're revitalizing the product lines that we have in our existing markets to our existing customers in the current product categories. And we're making those investments to improve the value our customers receive.

    好問題。好的。那我們就從正在做的事情開始吧。我們正在針對現有產品類別中的現有客戶重振現有市場的產品線。我們進行這些投資是為了提高客戶所獲得的價值。

  • And so in terms of the products that we've released so far, we have 2 that have gone to the market. And I couldn't be happier with actually how they were received. They've exceeded expectations in terms of the response we've gotten.

    就我們迄今發布的產品而言,已有 2 款產品進入市場。而看到他們受到的歡迎我感到非常高興。從我們得到的回饋來看,他們的表現超出了我們的預期。

  • In terms of where we're going, we're going to continue that. We're going to -- we've got a number of products in our thermostat product line, where we've revitalized that whole line. We've got new offerings coming in the security products. We've got new offerings in our safety. So you were going to see a cadence coming up here in 2025 and thereafter.

    就我們的目標而言,我們將繼續這樣做。我們將—我們的恆溫器產品線中有許多產品,我們將使整個產品線煥發新的活力。我們在安全產品方面推出了新產品。我們在安全方面推出了新產品。因此,您將會在 2025 年及以後看到這種節奏。

  • As we get past revitalizing the current product categories and current lines that we have, we'll be expanding into new product categories for the existing markets we serve. And then subsequent to that, we'll be expanding into new markets for our customers. Does that help?

    隨著我們成功振興現有的產品類別和生產線,我們將為現有的服務市場擴展新的產品類別。隨後,我們將為客戶拓展新的市場。這樣有幫助嗎?

  • Cory Carpenter - Analyst

    Cory Carpenter - Analyst

  • Yes. And then just to follow up, wanted to ask a little bit more on tariffs. Thank you for the color on what you're assuming and it sounds like you have a lot of contingency plans. But maybe what would be helpful is if you could just kind of go over your kind of supply chain footprint today. I know that's a loaded question, but what you can cover and kind of where you feel like and talk through some of your contingency plans.

    是的。然後只是為了跟進,想多問一些有關關稅的問題。感謝您對假設的詳細說明,聽起來您有很多應急計劃。但如果您今天能回顧一下您的供應鏈足跡,也許會有所幫助。我知道這是一個引導性問題,但您可以談論您認為可行的應對措施,並談論您的一些應急計劃。

  • Jay Geldmacher - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jay Geldmacher - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Cory, it's Jay. Good question. In my remarks, as you know, I addressed a couple of examples. But let me first start off with -- and I'm going to give a little more color on those examples. But to start off with, as you know, been following us the last few years, I've been here 5 years now.

    科里,我是傑伊。好問題。如你們所知,我在發言中舉了幾個例子。但首先讓我先——我將對這些例子進行更詳細的說明。但首先,如你所知,過去幾年我一直在關注我們,我來這裡已經五年了。

  • And one of the big investments that we've made is extra investments with our customers to deepen the relationships we have, which has really paid off in a lot of different ways. But in terms of what we -- as we looked at kind of a playbook to address this, we reached out to all of our customers in a very proactive way, both the Products & Solutions division with Tom and his team as well as Rob with ADI Snap to contact all our major customers and say, hey, we need to sit down and talk with you right now and go through what the possibilities are to be and talk about maybe price.

    我們所做的一項重大投資是與客戶的額外投資,以加深我們之間的關係,這確實在許多方面獲得了回報。但就我們而言——當我們研究解決這個問題的劇本時,我們以非常積極主動的方式聯繫了我們所有的客戶,包括產品和解決方案部門的 Tom 和他的團隊以及 ADI Snap 的 Rob,他們都聯繫我們所有的主要客戶並說,嘿,我們需要現在坐下來和你談談,研究一下各種可能性,也許還得談談價格。

  • We're doing other things operationally, supply chain-wise to offset, but price may have to go this way, depending on the -- what happens with the tariffs. They all responded in a very positive way and saying, thank -- we were like one of the few that reached out in a proactive fashion like we did and said we fully understand, and we'll work together. For the most part, that it was a very positive response from most customers for both divisions. So that was good.

    我們在營運、供應鏈方面正在採取其他措施來抵消影響,但價格可能不得不朝這個方向發展,這取決於關稅的情況。他們都以非常積極的方式做出回應,並說謝謝——我們是少數以主動方式伸出援手的人之一,並表示我們完全理解,我們將共同努力。總體而言,兩個部門的大多數客戶都給出了非常積極的回應。這很好。

  • In terms of levers, you've heard me say already about price, so that's pretty straightforward in terms of opportunities there. Commercial actions is quite a laundry list of things that both divisions have looked at, I mean, such as like an inventory buy ahead, but there's many other things. And then operational and supply chain moves, there's things that you can do in the short term and things you can do in the long term. But we have come up which we feel a pretty comprehensive playbook that makes -- who knows exactly what's going to happen, right? But I think we have -- the comprehensive playbook, I think, puts us in a pretty good spot.

    關於槓桿,您已經聽我談論過價格,因此就機會而言,這非常簡單。商業行動是兩個部門研究的一系列事項的清單,例如提前購買庫存,但還有很多其他事項。然後是營運和供應鏈的變動,有些事情你可以在短期內做,有些事情你可以在長期內做。但我們已經想出了一個我們認為非常全面的劇本——誰知道到底會發生什麼,對吧?但我認為我們已經有了全面的劇本,我認為,這讓我們處於相當有利的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

    Amit Daryanani,Evercore ISI。

  • Michael Fisher - Analyst

    Michael Fisher - Analyst

  • This is Michael on for Amit. Just curious on the ADI gross margin up 360 basis points year-over-year, which is pretty impressive. And I'm just wondering, within that improvement, the 34% growth in exclusive brand revenue, is there any way to quantify how much that contributed to the improvement and just maybe how to think about the margin upside potential from exclusive brand going forward?

    這是邁克爾 (Michael) 代替阿米特 (Amit)。只是好奇 ADI 的毛利率比去年同期上漲了 360 個基點,相當令人印象深刻。我只是想知道,在獨家品牌收入成長 34% 的這項改善中,有沒有辦法量化這項改善的貢獻程度,以及如何看待未來獨家品牌的利潤上升潛力?

  • Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

    Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

  • Yes. So let me make sure I -- great question, by the way, Michael, something I think about quite a bit. Let me first just go back to some of the question yourself. So the 34% growth that I mentioned in my remarks was growth on the ADI legacy exclusive brands product, not the comprehensive all-in product with Snap. So just level set there first.

    是的。所以讓我確保——順便說一句,邁克爾,這個問題問得很好,我對此考慮了很多。首先,讓我回顧一下你自己提出的一些問題。因此,我在評論中提到的 34% 的成長是 ADI 傳統獨家品牌產品的成長,而不是 Snap 的綜合全包產品的成長。因此,首先就在那裡進行級別設定。

  • But obviously, now that we have the Snap exclusive brands product, combined with our legacy ADI exclusive brands, we see a great opportunity, especially with the Snap product, to distribute and get those in the hands of our ADI customer base, which was significantly larger than the Snap customer base. And any opportunity we have to drive a higher mix of those exclusive brands is obviously going to be accretive to overall gross margin. So you can expect that to be a focus area for us for the foreseeable future. Does that help?

    但顯然,現在我們有了 Snap 獨家品牌產品,再加上我們傳統的 ADI 獨家品牌,我們看到了一個巨大的機會,尤其是透過 Snap 產品,可以將其分銷到我們的 ADI 客戶群手中,而 ADI 客戶群比 Snap 客戶群大得多。而且,我們擁有的任何推動這些獨家品牌更高組合的機會顯然都會增加整體毛利率。因此你可以預期這將成為我們在可預見的未來關注的領域。這樣有幫助嗎?

  • Michael Fisher - Analyst

    Michael Fisher - Analyst

  • Yes, definitely. And then also on the Snap One, looks like synergies are coming in well ahead of expectations, both already realized and what you're looking forward. Can you just talk about what's driving that? Like where are you seeing maybe a bit stronger benefit than you anticipated?

    是的,當然。然後同樣就 Snap One 而言,看起來協同效應遠遠超出了預期,無論是已經實現的還是您所期待的。您能談談造成這種情況的原因是什麼嗎?例如,您在哪些方面看到的益處可能比您預期的要大一些?

  • Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

    Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

  • Yes. So I'll first just say, couldn't be prouder of what the team accomplished to get to that $17 million and really just 6.5 months post close. So we're really pleased with that and just how the entire integration is progressing. The majority of that, I'll state, just to answer your question, is from cost so I'll say that right up front. But the other part of your question in terms of how that's happening, I really attribute that to the manner in which we've approached the integration.

    是的。因此,我首先要說的是,我對團隊在交易結束後僅 6.5 個月就獲得 1,700 萬美元的成績感到無比自豪。因此,我們對此以及整個整合的進展感到非常高興。為了回答你的問題,我要聲明的是,其中大部分是來自成本,所以我會先說明這一點。但關於你問題的另一部分,關於這種情況是如何發生的,我真的將其歸因於我們處理整合的方式。

  • I think I said on the last call that we've taken a lot of time to make sure we bring the best of both of these organizations together to include and starting with our leadership teams. My leadership team is 50-50 Snap legacy ADI as is the next layer down and as is the next layer down. We took those steps early on post close. That has allowed both sides of the business to really understand at an accelerated rate each other's businesses' go to market and subsequently to identify those synergy opportunities faster and then allow us to act on those. So that is the primary driver behind delivery of that $17 million number in '24.

    我想我在上次電話會議上說過,我們花了很多時間來確保將這兩個組織的最佳人才聚集在一起,包括我們的領導團隊。我的領導團隊由 50-50 Snap 傳統 ADI 組成,下一層也是如此,下一層也是。我們在收盤後不久就採取了這些措施。這使得雙方能夠真正以更快的速度了解彼此的業務進入市場的情況,從而更快地發現協同機會,並讓我們採取行動。所以這是 24 年實現 1700 萬美元這一數字的主要驅動力。

  • And also, what will continue to be the driver, as Mike mentioned, to deliver north of that $75 million as we exit the third year.

    而且正如麥克所提到的那樣,什麼將繼續成為我們進入第三年時實現 7500 萬美元以上收入的驅動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林 (Erik Woodring)。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is [Kancy] on behalf of Erik Woodring. So just a question on tariffs. Would you say that most of your competitors are facing similar issues where there's a lot of production in Mexico? And then I have a follow-up.

    我是 Erik Woodring 的代表 [Kancy]。所以這只是一個關於關稅的問題。您是否認為,您的大多數競爭對手在墨西哥有大量生產的情況下也面臨類似的問題?然後我有一個後續問題。

  • Jay Geldmacher - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jay Geldmacher - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Some of our competitors are in Mexico, but some of our competitors are in other locations, too. So it's a mix. And as you might guess, as part of the comprehensive review that my teams have done, we've looked at all that. So it's really -- it's a mix in terms of locations of different manufacturers. As you might guess, some of our competitors are in China.

    我們的一些競爭對手在墨西哥,但也有一些競爭對手在其他地方。所以這是一種混合。正如您可能猜到的那樣,作為我的團隊所進行的全面審查的一部分,我們已經研究了所有這些。所以這實際上是不同製造商位置的混合。您可能已經猜到了,我們的一些競爭對手在中國。

  • So it's just -- it's really a mixed bag.

    所以這只是——這真是好壞參半。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • And just on ADI, you mentioned record growth in your exclusive brands in e-commerce. Like how would you expect the strong areas of demand to translate to pricing power over time in ADI. And would you still describe the market as competitive in terms of pricing? And that's it for me.

    就 ADI 而言,您提到了電子商務中獨家品牌創紀錄的成長。例如,您如何預期強勁的需求領域會隨著時間的推移轉化為 ADI 的定價能力。您認為從定價角度來看市場仍具有競爭力嗎?對我來說這就是全部了。

  • Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

    Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

  • Yes. So maybe I'll take your second question first. The market certainly throughout the year last year became more and more competitive. I would say the height of that was really in Q4, where we saw the majority of those competitive pricing pressures. That and then the mix of our commercial large project business presented a headwind for us in Q4.

    是的。所以我可能會先回答你的第二個問題。去年全年的市場競爭肯定變得越來越激烈。我想說,這種現象的頂峰出現在第四季度,我們看到了大部分的競爭性定價壓力。除此之外,我們的商業大型專案業務組合在第四季度為我們帶來了阻力。

  • However, that said, and a great point that you bring up, 2 of the more margin-accretive parts of the business, right, in fact, the most margin-accretive parts of the business are from e-commerce channel as well as exclusive brands. . And the investments we are making in our omnichannel experience, bringing new products to market are all geared to try and drive the mix of those 2 categories higher into this year as well as next year. I think that's the single biggest thing we can do along with pricing, along with our investments in the ERP that Mike mentioned, which should unlock for us greater pricing disciplines and capabilities are all going to benefit us from -- in the future. I'd also say that we were -- I mentioned, I think, last time that we had lapped all of the deflationary impacts in Q3.

    然而,話雖如此,而且您提出的一個很好的觀點是,業務中利潤增值最多的兩個部分,事實上,業務中利潤增值最多的部分是來自電子商務管道以及獨家品牌。。我們在全通路體驗方面的投資以及將新產品推向市場都是為了在今年和明年推動這兩個類別的組合更高。我認為這是我們可以做的最重要的事情,除了定價,還有 Mike 提到的 ERP 投資,這將為我們帶來更好的定價原則和能力,這些都將使我們在未來受益。我還想說,我上次提到過,我們已經在第三季消除了所有通貨緊縮的影響。

  • We did not have any of those in Q4, and we don't expect any of those going forward.

    我們在第四季度沒有遇到這種情況,我們預計未來也不會遇到這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer.

    (操作員指令)Ian Zaffino,奧本海默。

  • Isaac Sellhausen - Analyst

    Isaac Sellhausen - Analyst

  • This is Isaac Sellhausen on for Ian. My question is just on ADI and Snap One, maybe if you could provide some details on the organic growth assumptions for ADI and some of the main drivers of growth there between video, fire, some of the strengths that you've seen towards the latter half of '24. And then I have a follow-up.

    這是 Ian 的 Isaac Sellhausen。我的問題只是關於 ADI 和 Snap One,也許您可以提供一些關於 ADI 的有機增長假設的細節,以及視頻、消防等一些主要增長驅動因素,以及您在 24 年下半年看到的一些優勢。然後我有一個後續問題。

  • Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

    Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

  • Sure, Ian. Thank you. What I would say, and I think I said this last time, is I remain cautiously optimistic about our ability to deliver growth into 2025 despite the macro environment being mixed. And I say that because as I look at our opportunity pipeline right now, especially in the commercial categories, it remains at a record level. Our backlog remains very, very healthy.

    當然,伊恩。謝謝。我想說的是,我想我上次也說過,儘管宏觀環境好壞參半,我仍然對我們在 2025 年實現成長的能力保持謹慎樂觀的態度。我之所以這麼說,是因為當我審視我們目前的機會管道時,特別是在商業類別方面,它仍然處於創紀錄的水平。我們的積壓訂單仍然非常非常充足。

  • And our project bid level is very, very strong. So that gives me a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to see continued growth throughout 2025. And look, we're seeing nice pickups from the Snap business, especially from Control4 dealers. They delivered generally in line with our expectations into Q4 and we expect them to continue to doing the same throughout the year -- this year.

    而且我們的專案投標水準非常非常強。所以這讓我非常有信心,我們將能夠在 2025 年看到持續的成長。而且,我們看到 Snap 業務取得了不錯的成長,尤其是來自 Control4 經銷商的表現。他們在第四季的業績基本上符合我們的預期,我們預計他們今年全年將繼續保持同樣的業績。

  • Isaac Sellhausen - Analyst

    Isaac Sellhausen - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just on the follow-up on Snap One. It's very large business, I guess, contributing to growth this year. Just maybe some of your assumptions and growth drivers and sort of what you expect as far as margin accretion there.

    好的。偉大的。然後只是對 Snap One 的後續報導。我想,這是一項規模很大的業務,將為今年的成長做出貢獻。也許只是您的一些假設和成長動力,以及您對利潤率成長的預期。

  • Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

    Robert Aarnes - President - ADI Global Distribution

  • Yes. So I think I mentioned this on the last question I answered. First of all, I will say that Snap is incredible at launching new products. launching new products that continue to be accretive to our business. I mean we launched over 400 new products last year.

    是的。我想我在回答的最後一個問題中提到了這一點。首先,我要說的是,Snap 在推出新產品方面非常出色。推出新產品將繼續促進我們的業務成長。我的意思是我們去年推出了 400 多種新產品。

  • We're continuing to do the same thing this year. So a very strong road map. There are several enhancements coming in Control4 products, including the user experience. We announced that at CDA with the X4 launch that is going to be later this quarter, early second quarter. So we think there's some real opportunity there.

    今年我們將繼續做同樣的事情。所以這是一個非常強大的路線圖。Control4 產品有多項增強功能,包括使用者體驗。我們在 CDA 上宣布 X4 將於本季末或第二季初推出。因此我們認為那裡確實存在著一些機會。

  • And then second of all, to be able to take the Snap product line into the ADI customer base, which, again, is much larger than the Snap customer base represents a real opportunity to expand overall margins as we drive a higher mix there in complement to what's happening on the e-commerce channel as well.

    其次,能夠將 Snap 產品線帶入 ADI 客戶群(該客戶群比 Snap 客戶群大得多),這代表著擴大整體利潤率的真正機會,因為我們在那裡推動更高的產品組合,以補充電子商務管道正在發生的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。