Riley Exploration Permian Inc (REPX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is John and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to provide the expiration Permian Inc's third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time to press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question. Press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Philip Riley, Chief Financial Officer. You may begin your conference.

Good morning. Welcome to our conference call covering the third quarter, 2024 results. I'm Philip Riley CFO joining me today are Bobby Riley, Chairman and CEO and John Suter COO. Yesterday, we published a variety of materials which can be found on our website under the investors section. These materials in today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. We'll also reference certain non-GAAP measures, the reconciliations to the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our supplemental disclosure on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Bobby.

Thank you, Philip. Good morning and welcome to our Q3 2024 earnings call.

Today, we highlight several updates for Riley since Q2 including that our team met or exceeded key metrics on our planned guidance resulting in significant free cash flow.

This has allowed us to continue paying down debt and distributing dividends back to our shareholders.

Today, we're paying our 15th consecutive dividend as a public company with a recent increase to $0.38 per share up 6% from previous quarter. Since 2021 we returned $98 million to public shareholders achieving an annual dividend growth rate of 11%.

Additionally, we paid down $35 million in debt this quarter underscoring our commitment to delivering consistent and growing shareholder returns while maintaining prudent financial management.

I'm happy to report that our 2024 drilling and completion campaign is delivering excellent results. We are successfully driving down cost while generally seeing production outperform relative to forecast and prior year results in both West Texas and New Mexico.

This reinforces the effectiveness of our operational strategies and strengthens our ability to generate value. This success also underscores the quality of our acquisitions and highlights new opportunities to invest in infrastructure that will support future growth just as we did early on in our Texas, our champions asset, we plan to take advantage of these opportunities beginning in Q4 and the future to build out infrastructure that will enhance transportation and processing, providing reliable, continuous takeaway, ensuring we are well positioned to maximize efficiency and long term value in both regions.

We believe Riley's all focus assets to be among the most productive and capital efficient in North America. As we demonstrate in new slides in our investor presentation using data and analysis from Enverus, a top data provider for our industry. One can see how our assets compare favourably to core Midland Basin and Delaware basin wells outperforming both on longer term cumulative production per lateral foot metrics and forecasted breakeven prices.

Since the fall of 2022. We've been operating a CO2 pilot in a small footprint area that consisted of six vertical wells and three horizontal wells.

The data gathered from this pilot showed that we were successful in mobilizing hydrocarbons, both oil and NGLS with CO two.

This provides valuable insights for potential EOR applications which we believe will be best suited for post primary production. Later in the reservoir's life, we will continue to evaluate anthropogenic co two sources that will be crucial in the economic outcome.

We made significant progress with our power joint venture RPC power across both projects in Yoakum County. We completed the final installation of power units supporting our operations and are actively transferring load to these units for our larger merchant project. We advanced with citing permitting and equipment orders, positioning us well for continued development.

Now I will turn the call over to John Suter our COO to discuss operational results for the quarter followed by Philip Riley, our CFO who will discuss financial results and guidance.

Thank you, Bobby and Good morning.

Once again, Riley demonstrated excellence in operations through safe operating practices. The team achieved a total recordable incident rate of zero for Q3 and year-to-date.

We achieved 91% safe days in the quarter. A metric requiring no recordable incidents, vehicle accidents or spills over 10 barrels. Thanks to our team for their continued focus on these efforts.

In Q3 of 2024 we drilled 12, completed three and turned in line six gross operated wells. The additional wells turned in line are carried over from Q2 completion activity.

The nine ducts generated in Q3 will provide our completions for the remainder of 2024 and give us a healthy start to our 2025 program.

As Bobby mentioned, our 2024 drilling and completion campaign continues to drive down costs through efficiencies and economies of scale from pad drilling and continuous drilling operations.

This has been achieved through optimization of drilling practices, pad drilling, Geo steering, efficiencies and zipper fracs.

We've increased both our feet per day and lateral feet per day by 33% and 20% in 2024 year-to-date relative to 2023 respectively.

We've also set records for drilling in Yoakum County for fastest one mile lateral at 3.97 days. Spud to TD and fastest 1.5-mile lateral at 4.78 days. Spud to TD. Net production grew from $1.34 to $1.42 million barrels of oil quarter over quarter, an increase of 6% while equivalent production is up 11% from 1.94 to $2.16 million of oil equivalent.

Our average daily net production was 23.42 NBOE per day for this quarter.

We continue to make steady progress in increasing the offtake of associated gas. Much of this is driven by enhancements from our midstream provider. Alongside us, these efforts allowed us to send 42% more of our gas produced the sales compared to the previous quarter.

The team successfully implemented our New Mexico plans in the third quarter including completing our first two red lake wells with nine more plan to be drilled this year, we purposefully backloaded our Red Lake development to avoid costly rig moves between states.

Initial production of these completed wells meets or exceeds expectations for the area.

The additional wells will provide valuable opportunities to test completion methodologies and well spacing to continue to improve results on future wells and the asset lease operating expenses were $8.60 per BOE within 1% of last quarter and down 7% versus the same quarter last year.

With the inclusion of vertical production in our New Mexico asset. Absolute LOE has increased slightly offset though by an increase in total equivalent production.

We're continuing to look at options to drive down LOE costs particularly on our vertical wells. This includes but is not limited to leveraging software and other technology to help manage, optimize and even automate artificial lift changes.

In the fourth quarter of this year, we will begin construction of a gathering and compression system in our New Mexico asset to better control our gas takeaway and allow for optionality in the future.

This infrastructure accounts for roughly $12 million of capital spend within the fourth quarter and will allow gathering and compression of our 2025 drilling program wells as well as much of our existing gas production.

As for power, we supported approximately 50% of our electrical load in Texas with self-generated power. In the third quarter, we continue to transition to a larger majority of self-generated power as we bring on more production within the generation footprint.

I'll now turn the call over to Philip to discuss Q3 financial results and guidance.

Thank you, John. Third quarter, 2024 operating cash flow was $72.1 million or $60.5 million before changes in working capital with the latter increasing by 5% quarter over quarter, the increase was driven by higher oil production volumes. Lower total unit costs improved head settlements and lower income tax payments partially offset by a 12% decline in average realized prices including higher gas sales volumes and negative realized prices.

We reinvested 50% of operating cash flow before working capital changes into upstream CapEx on an accrual basis and 38% on a cash CapEx basis. Hence, we converted 62% of that cash flow to $38 million of free cash flow that repeats approximately the record level set last quarter. Despite the significantly lower prices this quarter year-to-date, we've converted 56% of operating cash flow before working capital changes to $99 million of free cash flow or $133 million of free cash flow for the last 12 months.

So we're reinvesting less than half our after-tax cash flow and still growing production volumes. But more importantly, growing our free cash flow, we believe this combination of lower spending with higher volumes and free cash flow is a useful indicator of asset quality and capital efficiency.

The $99 million of free cash flow this year is 2.7 times the amount the same metric, I mean through the first nine months of 2023 and $133 million of the last 12 months. Free cash flow corresponds with approximately 21% yield on our equity value. As of the close yesterday, even after the 8% 1 day increase in the stock price, generating significant free cash flow while still investing for growth has been a key objective for our team and our company this year and we're proud to be delivering on the objectives operating income. This quarter was impacted by the impairment related to the project discontinuation. Most of which was noncash on a go forward basis. We will save approximately $3 million per year on avoided co two cost which I'll note was previously capitalized, not in OpEx, but it will increase free cash flow going forward.

Net income was down by 24% or $8 million quarter over quarter as gains on commodity hedges, about $23 million unrealized and $1 million realized absorbed some of the reduction from the impairment adjusted net income, which excludes the impact of the impairment, and the hedging gains was down by 5% quarter over quarter.

We reduced the principal value of debt by $35 million. This quarter to $300 million debt to total enterprise value at quarter end was 34% with 1.07 times debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA the credit facility utilization is now 35% down from 65% a year ago and total debt has been reduced by $100 million over the past year, we look to pursue a normal course extension on the credit facility. By early in the new year, the book value of shareholders' equity increased to $507 million or $24 per share based on $21.5 million shares, outstanding dividends in the third quarter accounted for $8 million or 22% of free cash flow.

The final allocation of capital in the third quarter was $1.5 million contributed to the power JV.

Moving on to guidance at the beginning of the year, we announced our annual plan which called for 10% year over year oil volume growth while cutting capital spending by 10%.

Our current full year guidance range based on three quarters of actuals plus one quarter of guidance for the fourth quarter calls for increasing full year 2024 oil production by 14 to 15% over full year 2023 production.

Our guidance range for fourth quarter, 24 exit rate is up by 14 to 19% over fourth quarter, 23 levels. Approximately 85% of annual oil volume growth can be attributed to organic development funded by CapEx with 15% attributed to the bolt on acquisition earlier in the year, which is not an original plan adjusting to exclude for the acquisition for illustrative purposes. We'd still be at 12 to 13% annual oil growth so still beating our original goal.

Fourth quarter, OpEx and overhead cost guidance ranges were both reduced from prior quarter levels. Primarily owing to improvements experienced in the third quarter and to a lesser extent to the benefit of the increased gas sales volumes, which has the effect of increasing the denominator on unit cost metrics.

Our fourth quarter CapEx range implies a year over year reduction of 20% using low end or 12% using the high end of spending.

Our full year CapEx range did increase from last quarter on account of the gas compression project that John discussed, which will have longer term benefits, adjusting to exclude for that new compression project for illustrative purposes as we didn't contemplate it earlier in the year and we'd be looking at a huge 21 to 29% annual CapEx reduction from last year. It still achieving organic growth back to you Bobby for closing. Thank you.

Thank you, Philip. Once again, we appreciate your time and interest in our company.

We're pleased with our recent performance. And while we believe these quarterly results are strong, we remind investors that we are primarily focused on long term results and value creation.

We remain confident that our strategic focus and operational excellence will continue to drive growth and profitability for our shareholders over the long-term operator. You may now turn the call over for questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session if you have dialled in and would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the approval energy telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Thank you. We'll pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster.

Your first question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with True securities. Please go ahead.

Morning guys. My first question on the capital efficiency in your upcoming DC plans specifically, you all seem to continue to do more with less is certainly notable by your slide 5. I'm just wondering, when looking at next year is that the plan is still to maintain around the similar growth? And you know, how would a 60 versus $80 environment affect your plans?

Right. Good morning. Thanks, Neil. Yeah, so we're. We're not providing. Guidance now for the, for the 2025 if you saw, we haven't. Historically done that. Now, we typically do it in the early in the same year. We can offer a few things. So, we've got a multi-year track record of growth through development and simply turning the calendar shouldn't materially alter our strategy. This year, we aim for 10% growth, and it looks like we may achieve even more than that on kind of the incremental gains we made each quarter. 2025 might look similar, you know, we might keep making those small gains each quarter.

You know, similar to this time last year, the macro backdrop is pretty volatile. We've got fairly loose crude supply and demand balances, large amount of OPEC spare capacity, large non-OPEC growth areas and places like Guyana got weakness in China. So, we're watching that, of course, we've got the optimism here domestically with some more growth outlook post-election.

But we're all still processing that as the team and with the board, you know, on the price volatility, I think that would probably affect us maybe less than some companies. We're hedged ballpark 40% on total oil production next year, maybe 65 70% on PDP. And of that swap is about 30% maybe in the 73 $74 above the current strip that gives us some, some cushion and then you got about 70% in callers at 63 to kind of mid 70s pricing. So that gives us some protection and mitigate some of that volatility. And I don't think that we'll be one to, to make big changes. Certainly, at the $80 level, if things are at 60 then, you know, maybe we have a little bit less growth. But as you started with the question, we're able to do more with less. We've got some capital efficient assets. So, I think we might do a tiny bit less there with the with the quite a low price. But don't, don't see a problem in keeping production flat there.

Yeah, that's what I thought. Thanks Philip. And then just secondly, on the, again to help us on the power focus JV, specifically, maybe, could you describe any potential upside, you know, next several quarters and maybe more specifically, sort of significant data points we should be looking for in the next few quarters.

Yeah, it's a fair.

Question and we're, we're looking for the right way to do this. We recognize most of you are upstream analysts and this is a bit of a new foray. So, you know, we've got two phases here. The first phase is effectively a behind the meter project to power our own operations that's installed. As Bobby noted the load is being transferred over more and more. That's going to be an easier business to forecast and we'll give some guidance soon on that. But that I I we hope is like a midteens type of capital return and we've invested a little over $30 million and that to date. And then we've got the second project with this which is the sale to Ercot and we're making great progress or RPC is making great progress there. That's the larger one with generation of power and the services, the backup ancillary services.

And so they're making great progress, permitting and obtaining surface acreage, executing interconnection agreements and so forth. We're actually not showing material equity contributions this quarter to the JB some of those items have contingent payments after the certain milestones are hit. And then we also have some line of sight on some project financing and some construction financing options which could provide another funding option.

And so I just want to encourage you, we are making quite a bit of progress there quickly. We've got projects scheduled to come on mid year on that second phase, mid year next year. We're, we're currently seeing a higher potential return there. That's a tougher business to, to forecast though. It's how power prices trade, they trade every 15 minutes in the day ahead market and you've got, you've got wide volatility. We see potential to make money even at, at low lower prices. We've got a favorable set up with low gas prices up, up out in the permian. And that's, that's part of the thesis there is that this allows for an an implicit hedge on our kind of lower gas price there. And we're happy with selling power at those lowest prices. And we can also enjoy the upside on the gas if, if that should ever materialize, but we appreciate your patience. We'll be providing more information soon.

Look forward to it. Thanks, Philip.

And your next question comes from the line of John White with drop capital. Please go ahead.

Good morning and congratulations on a very fine quarter.

Thank you, John.

In your four Q guidance. You've got a line-item infrastructure in the range of 14 to $21 million. I believe your COO touched on this in his comments, but I was wondering if you could provide some more detail.

Sure. Yeah, just as Bobby mentioned earlier, you know, we found value and making key infrastructure investments and champions that delivered, you know, has been delivering long term value in that development. Our Red Lake asset has the same opportunity.

So a reasonably large compressor station installation and associated gathering system on the west side of the Pecos River will help us deliver our 2025 development program volumes along with much of the existing gas to sales in a much more reliable manner than would likely not be possible on the existing low pressure network. That's that's mostly full. So this station will give us more future optionality to various gas process in the future if needed different gas markets as we, you know, as we spend significant development drilling dollars in the next 5 to 7 years, we want to make sure and have the optimal situation there.

Thanks for the extra.

Detail. I appreciate it and I'll pass the call back to the operator.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Jeffrey Robertson with water tower research. Please go ahead.

Thank you John. Just to follow up on the compression system at Red Lake.

Is that am I right in thinking that that system will allow for more continuous operation for both, obviously benefiting gas takeaway, but also there'd be a benefit on oil production.

Yes, absolutely. You know, we'll be able to compress some of these new wells to the high pressure system that again we believe is, is much more reliable from a downtime situation. Certainly, it's going to let us get access to that capacity, which in turn, you know, we produce more gas that allows us to produce more oil. So I think it'll be kind of a key item in our 2025 development program on the, on the Red Lake side.

Will it be a net positive too? From an operating cost standpoint?

Yeah, it should be, they'll be, you know, where, where we might have been paying fees for some of that, we'll do the installation, but then we'll get a discount on likely on some of those fees that we would normally pay somebody else.

And then back in at Champions on the, with the power, I think you said you're 50% self-generated in the fourth in the third quarter.

Will you be 100% at some point in the near future?

We're close to 100%.

I think it's going to be a little bit slower than that. There'll be a gradual build as, you know, the whole field is not tied to that, all of that network yet. But as we bring on new drilling programs kind of expand the the footprint of our grid. We'll, we'll certainly get there in the next couple of years, I would imagine. But but for now we'll just be adding on each drilling program wells as we go.

And am I right in thinking that the, the economic benefit of that is, is number one lower power costs, but also more reliable power that supports maybe less unscheduled downtime and allows you to produce more oil than you might if you had to rely on the, on the existing grid.

Yes, I would, I would say it's less of a power savings from an operational perspective. But what it does do is provide this great benefit. And you're right, like you mentioned, consistency with less downtime. You know, I think in the time past, you know, we had issues with brownouts being at kind of the end of the end of the electric system grid there. So this gives us a lot more control over the situation, lets us you know, produce our wells more of the time and you know, control our downtime on those E SPS which is not, is not good. And so I think, you know, that that can save a lot of money just in the future workovers of whenever something drops and stays down for a while. So we're excited about it. The the unit costs should go down over time as we add more and more power to the installation.

So, so we're excited about it.

And lastly, Philip, I know you said that the of the CO2 costs were being capitalized at the pilot but will discontinuing the pilot have any other impacts on the on the portion of operating costs that were being expensed related to that pilot.

No, they, it really won't on.

The expense. It's, it's that avoided CO2 contract cost, which is roughly $3 million a year. You know, implicitly, we, we we could see some production return which and, and potentially a little bit less power usage there with less compressors being run, less water flowing through there and such. So maybe some mild stuff but not significant on the OpEx.

Thank You.

Your next question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Just sort of piggybacking on, on some of the discussion about the power JD if you could just sort of walk me through. So, if we sort of head to the opposite scenario of much stronger net gas prices, which is the high-quality problem to have. How, how would that sort of ripple through the, the, the couple of different projects you have on, on the power side in terms of, you know, economics and advantages you that low gas provides that would, that would then shift.

Yeah. That's a fair question. No. So you know, first and foremost, in a, in a higher gas price scenario, we all have to remember if we're talking higher Henry hub and ex or we truly talking higher West Texas, Waha Plains pool and such which often have a significant negative basis differential like they did this quarter. So we are still a long way from say $3.04 dollars, $5 realized gas out there post basis differential. But on our, on our baseload project, we are taking that gas in kind. So instead of selling it to the market, we're taking it in kind or sorry, our PC, the JV is taking that in kind. So that acts as a feed stock. We have a certain price there. That's it's would be a material discount to that market price effectively. And then over on the merchant deal, it's going to be bought and sold at a market clearing price. And you know what we take comfort there in there is the strong historical correlation between the marginal price of gas in, in, in setting power prices. There can be some disconnects, of course in the middle of a sunny California weather type day, if it's 65 and sunny and windy, you're going to have floor power prices. But what we're seeing is the retirements of the traditional coal and even larger net gas. Is outpacing that renewable edition and especially in the face of all the surge of power demand from general Texas economy growth, oilfield growth out in West Texas oilfield town growth. And then of course, all of this technology boom and such in the talk of A I data centers and such. So the dynamics are still good for us and we're, we're excited about the prospect.

Great. Thanks. Five, really interesting. And earlier in the call, you were talking about just the success you've seen with the efficiencies and you mentioned pad drilling geo steering zipper racks. And I was just wondering the the results from those. Anything I don't imagine necessarily anything you seem to have been an out and out surprise, but I just wonder if there's any implications for maybe localized to success you had with some of the techniques that might be applicable to a wider part of the inventory.

Yeah, great question. And I think you're absolutely right. So what we are doing is really we have great rock to start with. We've been seeing that but now that we've been able to get the same level of production results just with, with cheaper costs. Again, our, our new Mexico asset especially is, is well set up for pad drilling. We're, we're testing the spacing on a lot of things there now. But I think it's really more of just continued improvement the way, the way I see it. I mean, again, with the zipper fracs, we're getting better, better sand placement. You know, certainly we've had some unexpected im improvement on some wells, but we tend to just have, you know, really good type curve results that we're, we're pleased with. And, again, we, we've just put ourselves in a great position with the asset quality we have and are, are just performing and executing well, but I wouldn't say there's any transformative ideas. It's just, it's just basic blocking and tackling using using all the industry methods at our disposal. It's, it's working well.

Great. Thanks a lot.

As there are no further questions at this time that concludes our Q&A session in today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a pleasant day, everyone.