Riley Exploration Permian Inc (REPX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Riley Exploration Permian fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the call over to Phillip Riley, Chief Financial Officer, for introductions. Mr. Riley, please go ahead.

Good morning. Welcome to our conference call covering the fourth-quarter 2023 results. I'm Phillip Reilly, CFO. Joining me today is Bobby Riley, Chairman and CEO.

Yesterday, we published a variety of materials, which can be found on our website under the Investors section. These materials and today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations to the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our supplemental disclosure on our website.

I'll now turn the call over to Bobby.

Thank you, Philip, and thank you again to everyone for joining us on today's call. Yesterday, at the close of the market, we announced the results of our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023. I'm pleased to report that 2023 was another outstanding year for Riley Permian. I'm going to discuss some of the high points for the year, our operations highlights, and then turn the call over to Philip. We encourage questions and discussion at the end of our call today.

Our overall net oil production increased by 49% year over year to 13.2 MBOE per day and total net equivalent production by 62% year over year to 18.6 MBOE per day. Riley achieved a 22% year-over-year organic growth in net oil production, excluding the New Mexico acquisition.

Proved reserves increased, reaching 108 million BOE, an increase of 39% year over year; and proved developed producing reserves reached 60 million BOE, increasing 23% year over year.

We generated $246 million of adjusted EBITDAX, $207 million of operating cash flow from continuing operations, and $70 million of free cash flow. We continue to invest in our business with total cash capital expenditures before acquisitions of $136 million, corresponding to a reinvestment rate at 66% of cash flow from operations.

We remain committed to returning value to our shareholders, most recently paying our 20th consecutive quarterly dividend totaling $28 million for the year. We remain focused on creating long-term value for our shareholders and delivering sustainable growth for years to come.

The company successfully launched operations for the initial phase of its baseload power generation facility operated by our joint venture, RPC Power LLC. Construction of the on-site power generation facility was mostly finished during 2023, with temporary power generation commencing in November of 2023.

The on-site power generation facility is anticipated to be fully operational by spring of 2024. Utilizing post-processed, take-in-kind natural gas as fuel, the thermal generation facility currently provides power to around 36% of our Yoakum County, Texas operations. I will note that the last well we drilled was powered 100% by self-generated electric power.

Regarding our EOR pilot, in early 2024, we successfully installed CO2 compression equipment and are currently injecting 12 MMcf per day of CO2 into the reservoir. This includes 10 million cubic feet per day of purchased CO2 and 2 million cubic feet per day of recycled CO2. As we move forward, our testing will evolve, closely monitoring the movement of CO2 and reservoir fluids using tracers.

Deep insights gathered from the project thus far have been invaluable, and we anticipate compiling a comprehensive feasibility report by the end of 2024. We've demonstrated our ability to inject substantial volumes of CO2 into the reservoir with minimal to moderate breakthrough.

Looking forward, our expansion opportunities hinge on several factors, including the availability of industrial CO2 emissions, which was the basis of our initial thesis; ongoing depletion of primary production; and the subsequent re-pressurization of the reservoir with water to reach the minimum miscibility pressure for optimal CO2 effects. This sets the stage for promising long-term opportunities in enhanced oil recovery.

In 2023 and most recently, we achieved significant drilling efficiency improvements, with the time from spud to total depth decreasing by 50%. Additionally, drilled feet per day increased by 58%. Leveraging these efficiencies, we set our company's record for drilling the quickest 1.5-mile well, completing spud to total depth in just 4.78 days.

These gains were driven by optimized connection practices, new agitator technology, and increased bit runtimes. Moving forward, we are steadfast in our commitment to leveraging technology and best practices to enhance efficiencies further.

Lastly, building on this momentum, we witnessed the successful integration of our New Mexico acquisition with our existing asset base, representing a significant milestone for our company. This integration has allowed us to establish operating synergies through a shared supply chain across the portfolio leading to streamlined operations.

At this point, I'll turn the call over to Philip.

Thank you, Bobby. Just a few minor additions here on trailing financial data. For the full year, cash flow increased by 22%. Full-year cash flow benefited from three quarters of new volumes from our 2023 New Mexico acquisition, as well as the organic growth mentioned.

We certainly could have chosen to reinvest more and to grow volumes faster, but we're focused on growing free cash flow. So halfway through the year last year, we intentionally slowed down some of the second-half activity to even out some front-half weighted activity and spend and as we had confidence in hitting full-year production volume targets.

That action helped contribute to the 26% year-over-year increase in free cash flow to $70 million. We allocated 39% of free cash flow to dividends, increasing total dividends paid per share by 9% year over year. The balance was used to repay debt, which is lower by $30 million in the fourth quarter alone. That helped contribute to an $88 million or 26% year-over-year increase in shareholders' equity.

Looking ahead, we're excited about our 2024 plan. Our capital program midpoint is just over $120 million of which 78% is allocated to development operations and capitalized workovers. We're looking to drill approximately 22 wells this year while turning to sales a few more with the benefit of having some drilled uncompleted in inventory.

On a per well basis, we're forecasting material savings year over year on account of both efficiencies, some of which Bobby described, as well as industry cost reductions such as in casing, tubing, and chemicals. We anticipate investing materially in infrastructure across both assets, which include gas takeaway, electrical upgrades, and other aspects that will lead to better operations for 2024 and beyond.

This is separate from the Power JV, which is accounted for as a contribution to an equity method investment. We have one final expected contribution there this quarter for about to $5.5 million. Thus far, this has come in below cost estimates.

As it translates to free cash flow, the combination of higher forecasted volumes with lower spending act as a catalyst for growth, so obviously, contingent on oil price. We forecast needing WTI in the low 60s or down 20% year over year from 2023 to hold free cash flow flat year over year. And that assumes no reduction in growth CapEx, whereas we probably would start to slow down at those price levels.

If oil averaged $75 for the remainder of the year, we see the potential for free cash flow to grow year over year by 50% or more in excess of $100 million, which would correspond to 20% yield on the current market value of our equity. And that scenario should bring our reinvestment rate down to 50% to 55% of operating cash flow with the inverse highlighting a very robust 45% to 50% conversion rate of operating cash flow to free cash flow.

Another metric I like is the ratio of free cash flow to CapEx, which in this case would be more than $0.80 of free cash flow generated for each dollar of CapEx invested. We encourage you to compare these types of metrics to other E&P's based on the guidance they have provided.

Some companies may have a bit higher free cash flow conversion rate, but they're generally not growing free cash flow like we anticipate doing for as many of the companies we've analyzed have weaker forecast.

I'll turn it back to Bobby now.

Thank you, Philip. And again, thank you for your support. We remain focused on driving profitable growth and investing in our business for the long-term.

Operator, you may now open it up for questions. Thank you all for joining us today.

(Operator Instructions) Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

Good morning, Bobby and Phil. Nice results, guys. My first question is just on this '24 plan and what I'd call the capital efficiency plan. Could one of you just discuss -- and Phil, you were alluding to this. It seems like now, the situation you're in -- could you discuss maybe the needed growth, what's your baseline decline, how those things sort of stack up in order to hit that sort of 10% growth target?

It seems to me like you guys are kind of in an advantaged situation. And I'm just hoping for a bit more color on maybe as far as rig activity and those things needed in order to hit this.

Good morning, Neil. This is Philip. We do find ourselves in advantaged opportunity. We like where we're coming out at the end of the year last year and what we're going into this year. We talked about 22 wells, just over 50% reinvestment rate. And that leads to the high free cash flow. We've got those savings on the incremental free cash flow. I think we're going to see probably the most boost from the volume growth even at flat prices.

Our hedge book is yet another thing that should be noted. It's looking better coming into this year than last. And then the CapEx savings, as you're talking about with the efficiencies, those are the main drivers for that kind of year over year 50% type of increase we see at current prices. And we feel pretty good about that. Does that answer the question or any more color --

No, you absolutely did. And maybe just a follow up to that, just maybe talk a little on capital allocation on -- again, you've got a great dividend. Would you think about buybacks? And how does debt repayment sort of fit into this, given -- I agree with you. I think the free cash flow could be pretty material, so I'm just wondering what the thoughts are with this this year.

Right. And I guess one more thing I'll say before -- on the allocation is when we think about growth, we think about growing free cash flow. Production obviously impacts that. But I just demonstrated there's a few levers to grow free cash flow. It doesn't have to be just the production growth. So it may have a little bit slower volume growth this year, but we are excited about that free cash flow growth.

So on allocation, we have three buckets of primary allocation right now. First, as you noted, we have a large dividend. The fixed versus variable nature of that dividend demonstrates our confidence in our future business. We've grown the dividend every year. We hope to grow it going forward. Oil prices obviously impact our cash flows, but we have confidence of the dividend coverage here even at very low oil prices. I'd say probably about $40 with our current hedge book.

Second, we continued to identify opportunistic investments. Those could be small acquisitions, it could be this Power JV, something like that. I think we tend to find interesting things to invest in, and I think investors should appreciate that. That's -- our primary purpose is to run the business but identify opportunities, earn a return of capital, and ultimately then return that capital.

So I think -- the third bucket I think about is that excess after those first two is used for debt paydown. What's the right level? Currently, we're on a book basis, 45% debt to cap, maybe it's down at the 25% to 30% debt to cap on a long-term basis. But as we've talked about on prior calls, I think what you'll find is us paying it down naturally. And then as we get to lower leverage levels, I think it's potential to use it again, right? Rinse and repeat.

We've got the credit facility there. I think we're comfortable with that going forward. And then, look, with debt paid down -- you made an allusion to buybacks. I think with debt paid down a bit more in the future, then we can explore other forms of shareholder return.

Great to hear. Thank you so much. Nice job, guys.

Jeff Robertson, Water Tower Research.

Thanks. Good morning. Bobby or Philip, given Riley's strong cash flow generation and what looks to be 50% reinvestment rate in 2024, can you talk about how you evaluate acquisitions that could complement the free cash flow capacity of the company?

Yes, this is Bobby. Let me take it to begin with and let Philip give his comments also. Obviously, most of the production or most of the history of this building is through organic drilling and development. So when we look at acquisitions, we're looking for something that has actually strong inventory available, something that's close to or in the same neighborhood as some of our existing assets, so we can optimize efficiencies.

One of the advantages that we have this year is with the integration of the New Mexico assets, we're able to high grade our drilling inventory and actually shift some of our development, if we choose, to the New Mexico Yeso Trend, which really gives us, I think, a real keen advantage of being at the right place at the right time.

But we continue to see numerous bolt-on opportunities. And like I say, the key thing is it's not so much of a PDP acquire basically, but buying something that has a large inventory and especially held by production or something like that is something we're focused on.

Yes, that's exactly right. I'll just add on to that that we earn our best returns on development. And while the cash flow is nice, you've got to pay for the cash flow. You've got to capitalize that. So if we can find acquisition with a disproportionately larger amount of undeveloped inventory, that's attractive to us. It allows us to earn those higher returns.

Bobby, you mentioned the Yeso. Is that a part of what's driving the production growth at a lower capital spend in 2024 in your plan, just the performance of those wells in the way how they impact the overall weighted asset base?

So basically, I want to say that we're very detailed into research before we go spend a bunch of money drilling wells. I mean, we gather a lot of geological engineering data to put together the plan that we see. It's going to get the best results from efficiencies and higher EURs.

We're excited about what we've seen in the first four or five wells that we've drilled in that play. And as we did, when we started in the Yoakum County deal, the first thing to do is to make sure you have the correct infrastructure in place, gas takeaways, and things along that nature to make it a much smoother deal.

So where we are at this year is just basically, we have two assets in front of us. They're pretty comparable, really, on where we are right now on rate of returns and our production profile. But it just gives us an opportunity to be selective.

And then lastly, just on the on the CO2 project in Yoakum County, is the feasibility study one of the key elements, Bobby, to being able to go talk to industrial emitters and convince them that -- to participate in your project?

Most definitely. I mean, basically, we know we have -- we're offsetting the Great Wasson Field, where that's contiguous to our East. It's been CO2 flooded for decades. And I think what we've demonstrated is that we have the ability to store a lot of CO2 also by enhancing oil recovery. So we're hoping those opportunities open to us, but we'll be ready with our feasibility to be the same for the storage.

Thanks. I'll jump back in the queue.

(Operator Instructions) Noel Parks, Tuohy Brothers.

Hi, good morning.

Good morning, Noel.

I just wanted to check on a couple of things. You mentioned that you were seeing some benefit on costs from casing, tubing, and chemicals having come back. Where do you think we stand in sort of the leveling off of inflation? Do you think your current pricing is pretty much stabilized. Do you think there's any more to go?

I can try to address that, Noel. I hate to try to predict the future here. It does feel like it's stabilized. It feels like we've -- we're seeing either flat to down on most of the costs. Some of that was efficiency. Like I said, some of the items like casing and tubing, clearly you can type in a Bloomberg and see how much hot rolled steel has come down. So some of that is certainly material. Some of that's impacted by China, of course. Other areas though, I think the chemicals is something that feels pretty material, other areas we'll see. We've tried to lock-in prices and services as much as we can for the year, and feel pretty good about that, but you're always going to have some floating aspect out of our control.

I can try to address that, Noel. I hate to try to predict the future here. It does feel like it's stabilized. It feels like we've -- we were seeing either flat to down on most of the costs. Some of that was efficiency, like I said, some of the items like casing and tubing.

Clearly, you can type in a Bloomberg and see how much hot rolled steel has come down, so some of that is certainly material. Some of that's impacted by China, of course. Other areas, though, I think chemicals is something that feels pretty material. Other areas, we'll see. We've tried to lock in prices and services as much as we can for the year and feel pretty good about that. But you're always going to have some floating aspect out of our control.

Sure, fair enough. And I'm just curious, related to the larger service environment, what are activity levels like across and your neck of the woods in the conventional Permian? Is it sort of a flattish year as far as overall rig activity for the industry, or do you see it creeping up?

Well, specifically, our assets are located, I guess, in [New Mexico]. It would probably be pretty flat to last year. We're in constant communication with the offset operators in our area, trying to share some services and drilling rigs and stuff like that. So I think I see a pretty flat drilling profile for that area.

The Texas asset may, as far as our immediate area, probably be a little bit slower than it has been in the past. But that's what I see. Philip?

Yes. The Texas area -- our neighboring assets are more developed than what we have. We've got more running room with inventory, and we're just finding that our neighbors have either mostly drilled up what they have or have chosen to slow down for different reasons.

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Jeff Robertson, Water Tower Research.

Thank you. Phillip, to follow up on the power JV in Yoakum County, can you talk about what impact that will have on field operations and reliability? And you mentioned that the most recent well you all drilled out there was powered by electricity, and whether or not that has a material impact on the capital cost of new wells?

Yes, I'll start. And then maybe Bobby can add on to it. On costs, we don't forecast a material improvement in operating costs. I think it's going to be mostly flat or it's going to be immaterial relative to our overall company to really move the needle. That said, we are an investor in it, so we enjoy getting both sides there.

On the capital though, as you note, and as Bobby noted in his intro, we did drill a well there using electric power. That's exciting. That's on the capital side. That could have some reduction there. Generally, we find electric power on a relative basis to be less expensive than diesel. And so that's pretty exciting. Again, it's not a major mover, but little things like that can make a difference. Bobby?

Yes. I'll also say that basically, this gives us a great use for our gas in the basin before we try to put it in the highways to get it down on the Gulf Coast so that get an uplift, being an investor in the Power JV. And we're also looking for reliability on our operations.

When we had brown ounce or dirty power from our location and the co-op that we're in, we're able to -- our goal is to increase our run times and efficiencies with cleaner power. And basically, the use of our residue gas are -- that we're taking in kind from our processor.

Everybody in the basin you see is experiencing weak natural gas prices, and we're doing everything we can to try to enhance that value, what we can do within our control. And so we think this is one way, and this is probably the first step for us.

It seems like the goal is to create value for natural gas in the field as opposed to selling it for a low price and sending it off to the Gulf.

Exactly.

Lastly, Bobby, there's obviously been a lot of consolidation in the Permian Basin, and Riley has focused more on conventional long-lived assets. Do you get a sense -- or what's your sense of the market for those assets over the next, let's say, two years as companies digest their asset bases?

The market for conventional or unconventional? I'd like to clarify.

Conventional.

Well, obviously, there's a smaller bucket to choose from. I mean, there's a lot of people with unconventional assets out there that they're drawing off some of their top inventory. And a lot of people are starting to look back at conventional opportunities for both horizontal and just basically secondary operations and stuff like that.

So I mean, we see assets that have a tremendous amount of PDP involved, thousands of vertical wells. It's not the most exciting thing that we want to be focusing on. I mean, like we alluded to earlier, the assets that we're looking for has running room with the drill bit. I think we'll have a chance to look at some consolidation opportunities in our area and look at some upcoming new plays.

Thank you.

Gary Kennedy, Kennedy Trust Investments.

Good morning.

Yes, okay. I just wanted to congratulate you on your hedge book. Whoever's doing that did a great job. They look so much better than they did last year. And I see your natural gas is hedged about $2 over what natural gas prices are selling for. And going to [collars] on the oil seems like a heck of a good idea, so congratulations there. And hopefully, the good work will continue.

Thank you, Gary.

(Operator Instructions) Sandra VandenBrink, Tokay Capital Corp.

Good morning, gentlemen. Congratulations on a good quarter. Some time ago, you had put out that you were looking to sell shares to raise cash, and I wondered what had happened to that, if anything.

Sure, Sandra, this is Philip. Thanks for joining this morning. Last fall, we did have a registration statement for an at-the-money facility. That's something that we saw as opportunistic given the various opportunities we're looking at, including that Power JV.

It remains outstanding there. As you can tell, we've used it in a very limited amount. So far, we've been financing the business and these new opportunities through cash flow. So far, we have no plans, nothing else to announce at the moment of any change from that.

So it will remain open until --

It does, but I encourage you and others to think about it no differently than anything else. I mean, we could -- just like you see companies this morning announcing overnight deals to do some issuances, any public company has the ability to do that. Ours is an at-the-money. That's our at-the-market type of facility. There, it can allow us to do it in small amounts, but it's honestly not too different there from a regular way, secondary or primary issuance.

Yes, sure. Okay. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

As there are no further questions at this time, I would now like to thank our speakers for today's presentation, and thank you all for joining us. This now concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.