皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is James, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫詹姆斯，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

值此之際，我熱烈歡迎大家來到皇家加勒比遊輪有限公司。

Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call.

2018 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you.

（操作員說明）謝謝。

I'd now like to introduce Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jason Liberty.

現在我想介紹一下財務長 Jason Liberty 先生。

Mr. Liberty, the floor is yours.

自由先生，請發言。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning.

早安.

And thank you for joining us today for our Fourth Quarter Earnings Call.

感謝您今天參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me here in Miami are Richard Fain, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Carola Mengolini, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

與我一起來到邁阿密的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官理查德·費恩 (Richard Fain)；貝利 (Michael Bayley)，皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼執行長；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁卡羅拉‧門戈里尼 (Carola Mengolini)。

During this call, we will be referring to a few slides which have been posted on our investor website, www.rclinvestor.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考我們投資者網站 www.rclinvestor.com 上發布的幾張投影片。

Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to our notice about forward-looking statements which is on our first slide.

在我們開始之前，我想請您參閱我們第一張投影片上有關前瞻性陳述的通知。

During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking.

在這次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性評論。

These statements do not guarantee future performance and do involve risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述並不保證未來的業績，並且確實涉及風險和不確定性。

Examples are described in our SEC filings and other disclosures.

我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他揭露的資訊中描述了範例。

Please note that we do not undertake to update the information in our filings as circumstances change.

請注意，我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新我們提交的文件中的資訊。

Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP historical items can be found on our website.

此外，我們將討論某些根據定義進行調整的非公認會計原則財務指標，所有非公認會計原則歷史項目的調節表可以在我們的網站上找到。

Unless we state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency-adjusted basis.

除非我們另有說明，否則所有指標均以恆定貨幣調整為基礎。

Richard will begin with some color on last year and this year.

理查德將從去年和今年的一些色彩開始。

Then I will go through a bit more detail on the figures followed by a Q&A session.

然後我將詳細介紹這些數字，然後進行問答環節。

Richard?

理查德？

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝傑森，大家早安。

I'm pleased to have the opportunity to share more about our 2018 results and our outlook for the coming year.

我很高興有機會更多地分享我們 2018 年的業績以及對來年的展望。

By any measure, 2018 was an unusually busy and successful year.

無論以何種標準衡量，2018 年都是異常忙碌且成功的一年。

Our teams achieved record financial results while introducing 4 new vessels, acquiring a controlling interest in Silversea's cruises, opening 2 stunning cruise terminals and implementing Excalibur on about half of our fleet.

我們的團隊取得了創紀錄的財務業績，同時引進了4 艘新船、獲得了銀海遊輪的控股權、開設了2 個令人驚嘆的遊輪碼頭，並在我們大約一半的船隊中實施了Excalibur。

On the financial front, the simple point is that strong fundamentals are driving strong results.

在財務方面，簡單的一點是，強勁的基本面正在推動強勁的業績。

In 2018, we achieved net income of $1.9 billion, with earnings per share growth of 18%.

2018年，我們實現淨利19億美元，每股收益成長18%。

Moreover, our EPS growth would have approached 25% had foreign exchange and fuel rates remained neutral during the year.

此外，如果年內匯率和燃油價格保持中性，我們的每股盈餘成長將接近 25%。

This outcome should encourage those who watch on the sidelines concerned about weather, politics, trade wars, supplies, whatever.

這結果應該會鼓勵那些在場邊關注天氣、政治、貿易戰、供應等議題的人。

These strong fundamentals should not be a surprise as we have been very vocal about 2 important and positive consumer trends.

這些強勁的基本面不應令人感到意外，因為我們一直對兩個重要且積極的消費趨勢非常直言不諱。

First, the trend in favor of experiences over material possessions; and second, the favorable demographic shifts.

首先，重體驗勝過物質財富的趨勢；其次，有利的人口變化。

We've been talking for a long time about how people have shifted their focus from buying TVs, cars, et cetera, to buying memories or experiences.

我們長期以來一直在談論人們如何將注意力從購買電視、汽車等轉移到購買回憶或體驗。

And that shift has become so powerful that I think it's now obvious to everybody.

這種轉變已經變得如此強大，我認為現在對每個人來說都是顯而易見的。

At the same time, the demographic makeup of our population keeps shifting in our direction.

同時，我國人口的組成不斷向我們的方向轉變。

These 2 trends have become increasingly powerful, and our company and our brands are well positioned to benefit from these trends.

這兩個趨勢已經變得越來越強大，我們的公司和我們的品牌已經做好了從這些趨勢中受益的有利條件。

Obviously, no trend is perfectly linear and no trajectory goes forever without interruption, but our direction and our overall progress appears inexorable.

顯然，沒有任何趨勢是完全線性的，也沒有任何軌跡可以永遠不間斷，但我們的方向和整體進步似乎是不可阻擋的。

Now, our strong position rests on several pillars.

現在，我們的強勢地位建立在幾個支柱之上。

The first is our product, where we have stunning hardware that appeals to the market, overindexes on guest satisfaction and delivers superior profit.

首先是我們的產品，我們擁有令人驚嘆的硬件，能夠吸引市場，提高客戶滿意度並帶來豐厚的利潤。

The second pillar is technology.

第二個支柱是技術。

As you all know, we are seriously invested in data analytics and in digitizing the guest and crew experience.

眾所周知，我們在數據分析以及賓客和機組人員體驗數位化方面投入了大量資金。

We believe that the opportunity for growth is strong, but we also believe that the speed with which we need to adapt and evolve continues to accelerate.

我們相信成長機會很大，但我們也相信我們需要適應和發展的速度繼續加快。

Several years ago, as I believe all of you know, when we initiated our Double-Double Program, we emphasized that our objective was not just to improve 2017 profitability.

幾年前，相信大家都知道，當我們啟動雙雙計畫時，我們就強調我們的目標不僅僅是提高2017年的獲利能力。

We emphasized then that 2017 was a steppingstone.

我們當時強調，2017 年是一個墊腳石。

We wanted to build a base and to solidify a culture that would serve as a springboard going forward.

我們希望建立一個基礎並鞏固一種文化，作為前進的跳板。

I believe our 2018 results demonstrate unambiguously that our objective was realistic.

我相信我們 2018 年的結果明確表明我們的目標是現實的。

As we now work to execute on our 20/20 Vision program, I am looking forward to achieving the same kind of positive momentum.

當我們現在努力執行 20/20 願景計畫時，我期待著實現同樣的正面動力。

These 2 programs also demonstrate the importance of planting seeds.

這兩個項目也證明了播種的重要性。

Ours is a long-term business, and we need to invest for the future, whether that is new ships, new digital systems or new private destinations.

我們的業務是一項長期業務，我們需要為未來進行投資，無論是新船舶、新數位系統或新私人目的地。

We are reaping the benefits of past investments today, and we will reap the benefits of current investments tomorrow.

今天我們從過去的投資中獲益，明天我們也將從目前的投資中獲益。

Looking forward, we are starting 2019 with some very good cards.

展望未來，我們將以一些非常好的卡牌開啟 2019 年。

Among them is the first full year of operation from Symphony of the Seas, Azamara Pursuit, Celebrity Edge and New Mein Schiff 1 as well as the delivery in 2019 of Celebrity Flora and Spectrum of the Seas.

其中包括海洋交響號、精鑽號、精緻邊緣號和新我希夫 1 號的首個全年運營，以及 Celebrity Flora 號和海洋光譜號於 2019 年交付的郵輪。

All of these new vessels carry significant premiums and help position 2019 for success.

所有這些新船都具有可觀的保費，有助於在 2019 年取得成功。

Happily, the record-breaking start to WAVE validates our confidence.

令人高興的是，WAVE 破紀錄的啟動驗證了我們的信心。

And with WAVE off to a wonderful start, our already good booked position continues to strengthen.

隨著 WAVE 的良好開局，我們已經良好的預訂位置繼續加強。

Bookings have been at higher levels than last year, and in fact, we received more bookings during the first week of WAVE than we have in any other week in our history, except for the second week in WAVE, which was even better.

預訂量比去年更高，事實上，我們在 WAVE 第一周收到的預訂量比歷史上任何其他週都要多，除了 WAVE 第二週更好。

So we are very happy about how the year is shaping up.

因此，我們對這一年的進展感到非常高興。

Despite all the noise in the economy and the volatility of the stock market, we have been impressed with consistent strength in demand from our markets.

儘管經濟中存在許多噪音和股市波動，但我們市場需求的持續強勁給我們留下了深刻的印象。

Actually, in preparing for this morning's call, I looked at how good our guidance has been in the past.

事實上，在準備今天早上的電話會議時，我研究了我們過去的指導有多好。

As you can see in Slide 2, during the past 5 years, we have consistently delivered or overdelivered on both yield and adjusted EPS guidance.

正如您在投影片 2 中看到的，在過去 5 年中，我們一直在收益率和調整後每股收益指引上實現或超額實現。

I doubt that many other companies or industries have such a remarkable track record.

我懷疑許多其他公司或行業都有如此出色的業績記錄。

I'm always impressed by how accurate our revenue management team has been.

我們的收入管理團隊的準確程度一直給我留下了深刻的印象。

Of course, the future is always uncertain, but they have demonstrated an impressive ability in the past.

當然，未來總是不確定的，但他們過去已經表現出了令人印象深刻的能力。

And as you also well know, in past years, we have experienced all types of fears and challenges from the Zika virus and global tourism in 2015, to questions about China supply in 2016, weather threats and capacity in 2017, global macro concerns in 2018, et cetera.

大家也知道，在過去的幾年裡，我們經歷了各種恐懼和挑戰，從2015年的寨卡病毒和全球旅遊業，到2016年的中國供應問題、2017年的天氣威脅和產能、2018年的全球宏觀擔憂等等。

Yet during all these periods, we were able to generate record revenue, record operating income and record earnings per share.

然而，在所有這些時期，我們都能夠創造創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的營業收入和創紀錄的每股盈餘。

Amongst the exciting things ahead of us this year, we are getting ready for the deliveries of Celebrity Flora and Spectrum of the Seas and Royal Caribbean International's Perfect Day project, which comes onstream in May.

今年我們面臨的令人興奮的事情包括，我們正在為Celebrity Flora 號和Spectrum of the Seas 號以及皇家加勒比國際遊輪完美日號(Perfect Day) 項目的交付做好準備，該項目將於5 月投入使用。

The island development will really shake up the short-term cruise market, and I am confident that our guests will love it.

島嶼開發將真正震撼短期郵輪市場，我相信我們的客人會喜歡它。

Now, before I turn the call back to Jason, I would like to again express my admiration and my thanks for the amazing people at Royal Caribbean, whose passion and skills enable us to grow and prosper.

現在，在我把電話轉回傑森之前，我想再次對皇家加勒比的出色員工表示欽佩和感謝，他們的熱情和技能使我們能夠成長和繁榮。

With that, I turn it back to Jason.

說完，我把話題轉回給傑森。

Thank you, Richard.

謝謝你，理查。

I'll begin by taking you through our results for the fourth quarter of 2018.

首先，我將向您介紹 2018 年第四季的業績。

These results are summarized on Slide 3. For the quarter, we generated adjusted net income of $1.53 per share, beating the midpoint of our guidance by $0.06.

這些結果總結在投影片 3 中。

Better-than-expected revenue and cost performance from our brands combined with better performance from our joint ventures more than offset a $0.04 headwind from currency and fuel.

我們品牌的收入和成本效益優於預期，加上我們合資企業更好的業績，足以抵消貨幣和燃料帶來的 0.04 美元的不利影響。

Net revenue yields were up 6.8% for the quarter, which was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance.

本季淨收入收益率成長 6.8%，略高於我們指引的中點。

On the cost side, net cruise costs excluding fuel per APCD were up 5.1%, better than guidance driven mainly by timing.

在成本方面，每 APCD 不包括燃油的淨郵輪成本增加了 5.1%，好於主要由時間驅動的指導。

I will now discuss our full year results, which we have summarized on Slide 4. By all accounts, 2018 was another year of very strong performance.

我現在將討論我們在投影片 4 中總結的全年業績。

We generated approximately $1.9 billion in adjusted net income, resulting in an earnings per share of $8.86.

我們產生了約 19 億美元的調整後淨利潤，每股收益為 8.86 美元。

This was $0.06 higher than the midpoint of our previous guidance and was up 17.5% year-over-year.

這比我們之前指導的中點高出 0.06 美元，年增 17.5%。

This result also beat the midpoint of the January guidance by $0.21, despite the unfavorable impact from currency and fuel, which negatively affected earnings by approximately $123 million or $0.58 per share.

儘管受到貨幣和燃料的不利影響，這一結果也比 1 月指引的中點高出 0.21 美元，這對收益產生了約 1.23 億美元或每股 0.58 美元的負面影響。

Our leading brands supported this strong financial performance with net promoter scores at all-time highs and record employee engagement metrics.

我們的領先品牌以歷史最高的淨推薦值和創紀錄的員工敬業度指標支持了強勁的財務表現。

To summarize the revenue performance for the year, yields were up by 4.4%.

總結今年的營收表現，收益率成長了 4.4%。

Strong demand from our core products from our key markets, better onboard experiential spend and the addition of Silversea drove the year-over-year outperformance.

主要市場對我們核心產品的強勁需求、更好的船上體驗支出以及銀海郵輪的加入推動了我們的同比表現。

On the cost side, net cruise costs, excluding fuel, were up 4.1%.

在成本方面，不包括燃油的遊輪淨成本上漲了 4.1%。

The main drivers behind the year-over-year increase were more drydock days, the lapping of hardware changes, investments in technology and the consolidation of Silversea's operations.

年比成長的主要驅動因素是乾船塢天數增加、硬體更換、技術投資以及銀海營運整合。

Now, I'll update you on what we are seeing in the demand environment.

現在，我將向您介紹我們在需求環境中所看到的最新情況。

Over the past 3 months, bookings have been higher than same time last year, the positive variance growing further as we enter the all-important WAVE season.

過去 3 個月，預訂量高於去年同期，隨著我們進入最重要的 WAVE 季節，正差異進一步擴大。

In fact, 2 out of the past 3 weeks have been record booking weeks for the company.

事實上，過去 3 週中有 2 週創下了該公司預訂週的記錄。

These strong booking trends have further strengthened our overall booked position, and 2019 is at a record high in both rate and volume.

這些強勁的預訂趨勢進一步加強了我們的整體預訂狀況，2019 年的預訂率和預訂量均創歷史新高。

We've been particularly pleased with the trends we are seeing in North America.

我們對在北美看到的趨勢特別滿意。

While the bookings from North American guests have been strong for sailings on both sides of the Atlantic, our Caribbean sailings are in particularly strong booked position with rate and volume up in all 4 quarters.

雖然北美客人對大西洋兩岸航線的預訂量一直很強勁，但我們的加勒比海航線的預訂量尤其強勁，四個季度的運價和數量均有所上升。

We have superior hardware in the Caribbean throughout the year, and the addition of Perfect Day to our portfolio has further improved our offering.

我們在加勒比地區全年都擁有優質的硬件，而將 Perfect Day 添加到我們的產品組合中進一步改進了我們的產品。

The summer Europe season is also shaping up well with Celebrity Edge garnering significant price premiums in the Mediterranean, and the rest of the fleet is also in a good booked position.

夏季歐洲季節也進展順利，Celebrity Edge 在地中海獲得了顯著的價格溢價，而船隊的其餘部分也處於良好的預訂狀態。

Uncertainty surrounding Brexit has created some inconsistencies in demand from the U.K., however, our global footprint means that booking strength from North America and other key markets is more than compensating.

英國脫歐的不確定性導致英國的需求出現一些不一致，但我們的全球足跡意味著北美和其他主要市場的預訂量足以彌補這一不足。

Our Asia Pacific sailings have also been trending well.

我們的亞太航線也一直表現良好。

China continues to be an important market for us, and we saw significant yield growth for the product throughout 2018.

中國仍然是我們的重要市場，2018 年我們看到該產品的產量顯著成長。

2019 China sailings are booked ahead of same time last year.

2019年中國航線的預訂量比去年同期提早。

Over 0.5 million Chinese guests sail with us each year, mostly on sailings from China.

每年有超過 50 萬中國客人搭乘我們的航班，其中大多數是從中國出發的航班。

However, we are seeing a significant growth in outbound travel with 75% more Chinese guests on a non-China itinerary in 2019 when compared to just 3 years ago.

然而，我們看到出境遊大幅成長，與 3 年前相比，2019 年前往非中國行程的中國遊客增加了 75%。

Cruises in Europe and Alaska have seen the number of Chinese guests more than double.

歐洲和阿拉斯加郵輪上的中國遊客數量增加了一倍以上。

Now, I'll give you a brief overview of our capacity and deployment changes for 2019.

現在，我將向您簡要概述 2019 年我們的容量和部署變更。

Our overall capacity will increase 8.6% year-over-year with the addition of Silversea contributing just over 2% of the growth and the rest driven by our stunning new ships.

我們的整體運能將年增 8.6%，其中 Silversea 的增加貢獻了略高於 2% 的增長，其餘部分則由我們令人驚嘆的新船推動。

The bulk of our capacity growth will occur in the Caribbean with Symphony of the Seas sailing year around from Miami and a full year of sailings on 2 modernized ships, Mariner of the Seas and Navigator of the Seas.

我們的大部分運力成長將發生在加勒比地區，海洋交響號全年從邁阿密出發，而兩艘現代化船舶——海洋水手號和海洋領航者號則全年航行。

In total, just over half of our capacity will be in the Caribbean.

總的來說，我們一半以上的產能將位於加勒比海地區。

While our European capacity will be similar to 2018, we have made a few changes to our deployment in the region.

雖然我們的歐洲產能將與 2018 年相似，但我們對該地區的部署進行了一些更改。

Most notable is the addition of Celebrity Edge, which will be sailing 7- to 11-night Mediterranean itineraries from both Barcelona and Rome.

最值得注意的是 Celebrity Edge 的加入，它將提供從巴塞隆納和羅馬出發的 7 至 11 晚的地中海航線。

Europe will account for 16% of our capacity this year.

今年歐洲將占我們產能的 16%。

The Asia Pacific region will account for 15% of our 2019 capacity with sailings in China, Australia and Southeast Asia.

亞太地區將占我們 2019 年運力的 15%，航線遍及中國、澳洲和東南亞。

China remains a core region for the Royal Caribbean brand with Spectrum of the Seas arriving to join her sister ship, Quantum of the Seas, in early June.

中國仍然是皇家加勒比品牌的核心區域，海洋光譜號將於六月初加入其姊妹船海洋量子號的行列。

Alaska only accounts for 5% of our full year capacity, but is a key high-yielding product for us in the summer.

阿拉斯加僅占我們全年產能的 5%，但卻是我們夏季的關鍵高產量。

This year, we are improving our hardware in the region with larger, newer ships for Royal Caribbean, Celebrity and Silversea along with Azamara's first-ever Alaska season.

今年，我們將改善該地區的硬體設施，為皇家加勒比、精緻遊輪和銀海郵輪提供更大、更新的船舶，以及精鑽號的首個阿拉斯加季節。

With 2018 now in the rearview mirror, we have entered what is arguably the busiest and most exciting year in our history.

2018 年已經成為過去，我們已經進入了可以說是我們歷史上最忙碌、最激動人心的一年。

Firstly, 2019 will be our first full year with Silversea.

首先，2019 年將是我們與銀海郵輪合作的第一個全年。

Secondly, we'll be welcoming Spectrum of the Seas in the spring and Celebrity Flora in the summer, while also enjoying the first full year of sailings for Celebrity Edge, Symphony of the Seas and Azamara Pursuit.

其次，我們將在春季迎接海洋頻譜號，在夏季迎接名人弗洛拉號，同時還將享受名人邊緣號、海洋交響號和精鑽號的首個全年航行。

And finally, we have 2 exciting land-based initiatives coming to fruition.

最後，我們有兩項令人興奮的陸地舉措即將取得成果。

We are now welcoming guests at our own new terminal here at Port of Miami.

我們現在在邁阿密港我們自己的新碼頭歡迎客人。

And in May of 2019, we will launch Perfect Day at CocoCay, where our guests will experience stunning amenities like the tallest waterslide in North America.

2019 年 5 月，我們將在 CocoCay 推出 Perfect Day，在那裡我們的客人將體驗北美最高的滑水道等令人驚嘆的設施。

As I mentioned in October, the additions of Silversea, the terminal in Miami and Perfect Day each increased both our cost and yield metrics in 2019.

正如我在 10 月所提到的，銀海郵輪、邁阿密碼頭和 Perfect Day 的新增營運均增加了我們 2019 年的成本和收益指標。

To provide transparency, I'll share our year-over-year yield and cost guidance both including and excluding these items.

為了提供透明度，我將分享我們的同比收益率和成本指導，包括和不包括這些項目。

These items combined with the timing of new ship deliveries mean that there are a lot of contributing factors to the cadence of our yield and capacity changes throughout the year.

這些項目與新船交付的時間相結合，意味著我們全年產量和運力變化的節奏有許多影響因素。

In some years, we see a lot of variability in yield growth from one quarter to the next.

在某些年份，我們看到一個季度與下一個季度的產量成長有很大差異。

Whereas in 2019, we expect more moderate differences.

而 2019 年，我們預期差異會更加溫和。

The majority of our capacity growth will occur in the first half of the year, which is the period where we have the greatest visibility.

我們的產能成長大多將發生在上半年，這是我們能見度最高的時期。

This position and the level of visibility we have further bolsters our confidence in our yield guidance.

這一地位和我們所擁有的知名度進一步增強了我們對收益率指導的信心。

Taking all this into account, if you turn to Slide 5, you will see our guidance for 2019.

考慮到所有這些，如果您翻到幻燈片 5，您將看到我們 2019 年的指導。

Our yield outlook for 2019 is quite encouraging.

我們對 2019 年的收益率前景相當鼓舞人心。

We expect net revenue yields to grow 6.5% to 8.5% for the full year, which makes 2019 our 10th consecutive year of yield growth.

我們預計全年淨收入收益率將成長 6.5% 至 8.5%，這使得 2019 年收益率連續第十年增長。

This metric includes approximately 350 basis points from the operation of Silversea, the cruise terminal in Miami and the Perfect Day development.

該指標包括邁阿密郵輪碼頭 Silversea 的營運和 Perfect Day 開發案的約 350 個基點。

When excluding these important elements, the underlying yield improvement is driven by strong demand for our core products, new hardware and continued growth from onboard revenue areas.

當排除這些重要因素時，潛在的產量改善是由對我們的核心產品、新硬體的強勁需求以及船上收入領域的持續成長所推動的。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up 8.5% to 9% for the full year.

全年淨郵輪成本（不包括燃油）預計將上漲 8.5% 至 9%。

Cost control continues to be a strong focus of ours.

成本控制仍然是我們的重點。

However, this metric includes 650 basis points from the operation of Silversea, the cruise terminal in Miami and the Perfect Day development.

然而，該指標包括邁阿密郵輪碼頭 Silversea 的營運和 Perfect Day 開發案的 650 個基點。

As we have shared with you before, we strongly believe that these projects accelerate our competitive differentiation and advantage as well as deliver strong returns.

正如我們之前與您分享的那樣，我們堅信這些項目可以加速我們的競爭差異化和優勢，並帶來豐厚的回報。

Our depreciation for the year is growing faster in 2019 than in previous periods.

2019 年我們全年的折舊成長速度比往年更快。

As a reminder, our investments in technology projects like Excalibur are becoming a larger mix of our capital program and generally have a shorter useful life than our typical capital investments.

提醒一下，我們對 Excalibur 等技術項目的投資正在成為我們資本計畫的一個更大的組合，並且通常比我們典型的資本投資的使用壽命更短。

Moreover, the addition of Silversea is also contributing to the elevated growth rate.

此外，銀海的加入也促進了成長率的提高。

As previously discussed, being in the luxury and expedition segment, Silversea's depreciation per berth is significantly higher than our corporate average.

如前所述，在豪華和探險領域，銀海郵輪的每個泊位折舊率明顯高於我們的公司平均值。

We have included $690 million of fuel expense for the year, and we are 58% hedged.

我們已經計入了今年 6.9 億美元的燃料費用，我們進行了 58% 的對沖。

Based on current fuel prices, currency exchange and interest rates, we expect another record-breaking year with earnings per share between $9.75 and $10 per share and therefore another year of double-digit EPS growth.

根據目前的燃油價格、貨幣匯率和利率，我們預計每股收益將再次破紀錄，每股收益將在 9.75 美元至 10 美元之間，因此每股收益將再次實現兩位數增長。

Now I'd like to walk you through our first quarter guidance on Slide 6. Net revenue yields are expected to be up in the range of 7.5% to 8%.

現在我想向您介紹投影片 6 上的第一季指引。

This metric includes approximately 375 basis points from the operation of Silversea and the cruise terminal in Miami.

該指標包括銀海郵輪和邁阿密郵輪碼頭營運的約 375 個基點。

As it relates to the core operation, first quarter yield will benefit from the addition of Celebrity Edge, Symphony of the Seas in the Caribbean and improvements in yields for core products.

由於與核心業務相關，第一季收益率將受益於加勒比海名人邊緣號、海洋交響號的增加以及核心產品產量的提高。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up approximately 10% for the quarter.

不包括燃油在內的郵輪淨成本預計本季將成長約 10%。

This metric includes approximately 800 basis points from the operations of Silversea, the cruise terminal in Miami and the start of operations of Perfect Day at CocoCay.

該指標包括邁阿密郵輪碼頭 Silversea 的營運以及可可島 Perfect Day 開始營運的約 800 個基點。

As it relates to the core operation, the year-over-year increase is mainly driven by the timing and scope of drydocks, related to our ship modernization programs and some shifts in costs from the previous quarter.

由於與核心業務相關，同比增長主要是由乾船塢的時間和範圍推動的，這與我們的船舶現代化計劃以及與上一季相比的一些成本變化有關。

Taking all of this into account, we expect adjusted earnings to be approximately $1.10 per share.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計調整後每股收益約為 1.10 美元。

With that, I ask our operator to open up the call for a question-and-answer session.

這樣，我要求我們的接線生打開電話進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Robin Farley from UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利（Robin Farley）。

Obviously, with these results, you're not giving us a lot to worry about, but maybe I could ask you 2 things in terms of your booking outlook.

顯然，有了這些結果，您不必讓我們太擔心，但也許我可以就您的預訂前景問您兩件事。

One is just, with the increase in supply in Alaska and the market in general, I mean, is it fair to say with the kind of yield guidance you're giving, I assume you're seeing increases in yield in all of your major markets.

一是，隨著阿拉斯加和整個市場供應的增加，我的意思是，根據您給出的收益率指導，公平地說，我假設您看到所有主要項目的收益率都在增加市場。

And then I was also going to ask you about other European sourcing.

然後我還想問你有關其他歐洲採購的情況。

You mentioned that there's a little bit of inconsistent demand in the U.K. I wonder if you have comment on other Europe and even just sort of quantifying.

您提到英國的需求有點不一致。

I think U.K. is your biggest European market and don't actually have that much exposure to other Europe, but any comments there?

我認為英國是你們最大的歐洲市場，實際上對其他歐洲市場沒有太多的了解，但那裡有什麼評論嗎？

It's Michael.

是麥可。

Alaska is and has always been a great market for us.

阿拉斯加對我們來說一直都是一個龐大的市場。

It's a high-yielding market, and it performed exceptionally well last year, and it's looking good for this year as well.

這是一個高收益市場，去年表現非常好，今年看起來也不錯。

So we're quite pleased with how Alaska is shaping up.

所以我們對阿拉斯加的現狀非常滿意。

With European sourcing, I think Jason had mentioned earlier that we have the benefit of really a significant global international structure and that really does allow us to balance any geopolitical issues in any one particular market.

對於歐洲採購，我認為傑森之前曾提到過，我們受益於真正重要的全球國際結構，這確實使我們能夠平衡任何特定市場的地緣政治問題。

So I think we were kind of aware that there would be some volatility in the U.K. market with Brexit, and we planned accordingly, and we are hoping we'll move through it quite quickly, but our sourcing has been good out of all of the other international markets.

因此，我認為我們已經意識到英國脫歐會導致英國市場出現一些波動，我們也做出了相應的計劃，我們希望我們能很快度過這個難關，但我們的採購在所有方面都表現良好。其他國際市場。

And including the North American market as well by the way, which has been particularly strong.

順便說一下，北美市場也特別強勁。

So actually outside of the U.K., there's nothing you'd call out in terms of softness in demand?

那麼實際上在英國以外，您沒有什麼可以說需求疲軟的嗎？

No.

不。

I think it's a U.K. story.

我認為這是一個英國故事。

I was there last week and watched the news pretty much every night, and there's a huge debate raging.

上週我在那裡，幾乎每天晚上都看新聞，那裡有一場激烈的爭論。

Nobody knows what's going to happen.

沒有人知道會發生什麼事。

There's quite a lot of sentiment, and I think that's almost inevitable.

有很多情緒，我認為這幾乎是不可避免的。

So I guess, when March passes, hopefully we'll all be in a better position and know what's going to happen.

所以我想，當三月過去時，希望我們都能處於更好的位置並知道會發生什麼。

And Robin, just to add, just one comment on the U.K. side.

羅賓補充一下，英國方面的一個評論。

I had mentioned that we've seen volatility.

我曾提到我們已經看到了波動。

So we have seen volatility, but all in all, it's also been still a very good and strong market for us and the bookings have come in quite well.

因此，我們看到了波動，但總而言之，這對我們來說仍然是一個非常良好和強勁的市場，而且預訂量也相當不錯。

There's just been more volatility in that market around the new cycle.

新周期期間該市場的波動性較大。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

I guess the first question is around your guidance.

我想第一個問題是圍繞你的指導。

And Jason, you've always kind of talked about that 2% to 4% core yield growth as being a pretty good barometer for the business.

Jason，你總是說 2% 到 4% 的核心收益率成長是業務的一個很好的晴雨表。

But obviously, if we strip out Silversea and all the other stuff you guys have this year going on, you're essentially guiding to a 3% to 5% kind of core yield.

但顯然，如果我們剔除 Silversea 和今年你們擁有的所有其他東西，你們基本上會獲得 3% 到 5% 的核心收益率。

So I guess the question is, what gives you so much confidence in that range?

所以我想問題是，是什麼讓您對這個範圍如此有信心？

And as we move forward, is that 2% to 4% range still the right way to think about the business?

隨著我們前進，2% 到 4% 的範圍仍然是思考業務的正確方式嗎？

And I guess another way to ask this is, if we stripped out your new hardware, whether it's Edge or Spectrum, would your like-for-like hardware still be trending better than what you would have thought maybe 6 months ago, if that makes sense?

我想問這個問題的另一種方式是，如果我們去掉你的新硬件，無論是 Edge 還是 Spectrum，你的同類硬件的趨勢是否仍然比你 6 個月前想像的更好，如果這使得感覺？

Sure.

當然。

Well, firstly, thank you for the nice comment on the '18 results.

嗯，首先，感謝您對 18 年結果的精彩評論。

We're obviously quite happy about it.

我們顯然對此感到非常高興。

So one, just talking a little bit about our guide, first, in terms of our philosophy on guidance, nothing has changed here.

所以，先簡單談談我們的指南，首先，就我們的指南理念而言，這裡沒有任何改變。

And again, I would really point to the chart that Richard was commenting on that we put up on the slide in terms of our consistency to forecast our yield in our earnings.

再說一次，我真的想指出理查德評論的圖表，我們在幻燈片上展示了我們預測收益收益率的一致性。

But there's lots been going that bring us confidence into that number.

但很多事情的進展讓我們對這個數字充滿信心。

So one, this hasn't happened overnight.

所以，這不是一夜之間發生的。

We've been building this book of business for quite a long period of time.

我們花了相當長的一段時間來寫這本商業書。

As I commented on, we are in a very strong booked position on both a rate and volume basis, and that continues on for several quarters here into the future.

正如我所評論的，我們在價格和銷售方面都處於非常強勁的預訂位置，並且這種情況將持續到未來的幾個季度。

The other thing which I'll comment on is that most of our capacity growth for the year is really in the first half of the year.

我要評論的另一件事是，我們今年的大部分產能成長實際上是在今年上半年。

And so that is where we have the greatest visibility in both how we're booking and the amount we have on our books, which further bolsters our confidence into our outlook for the year.

因此，我們對預訂方式和預訂量都有最大的了解，這進一步增強了我們對今年前景的信心。

That yield growth is not just coming from new hardware.

產量的成長不僅來自新硬體。

A portion of it is coming from new hardware, but really what's balancing out that, as you commented, 3% to 5% or approximately 4% is really being driven by the improvement in the like-for-like business.

其中一部分來自新硬件，但正如您所評論的那樣，真正平衡的是 3% 到 5% 或大約 4% 確實是由同類業務的改善推動的。

So I think when you kind of combine all that together, there's a lot that makes us feel very confident for the year based off of everything that we know today.

所以我認為，當你把所有這些結合在一起時，根據我們今天所知道的一切，有很多事情讓我們對這一年感到非常有信心。

As it relates to the 2% and 4%, I think really it's -- that's kind of how we've trended over the past several years, which is why that range has kind of been out there.

由於它與 2% 和 4% 相關，我認為這確實是我們過去幾年的趨勢，這就是為什麼這個範圍一直存在。

The past couple of years, we've obviously been on the higher end of that range going forward.

在過去的幾年裡，我們顯然已經處於該範圍的高端。

But we think that moderate yield growth, good cost control and being thoughtful in our investments, improve our earnings per share at a very healthy rate and also improves our return on invested capital.

但我們認為，適度的收益率成長、良好的成本控制和深思熟慮的投資，可以以非常健康的速度提高我們的每股收益，也提高我們的投資資本回報率。

Okay.

好的。

That's great color.

那顏色真棒。

And then second question would be on the cost side.

第二個問題是成本方面。

And again, if we strip out Silversea, CocoCay, all that stuff, you guys are forecasting kind of that core cost to be up 2% to 3%, which is probably a little bit higher, I think, than what some folks might have expected.

再說一次，如果我們剔除 Silversea、CocoCay 等所有這些東西，你們預測核心成本將上漲 2% 到 3%，我認為這可能比某些人可能的預期要高一點預期的。

And I guess some of that bump there is kind of more drydock related and probably some technology as well.

我猜其中一些障礙與乾船塢有關，可能還有一些技術。

But I guess the question is, without that drydock impact and without the technology component, do you still see the business being able to keep that cost pressure relatively low?

但我想問題是，如果沒有乾船塢影響，也沒有技術組件，您是否仍然認為企業能夠將成本壓力保持在相對較低的水平？

Yes.

是的。

So one, if you back out Silversea, the Port of Miami and CocoCay, our costs are approximately 2%.

因此，如果您退出 Silversea、邁阿密港和 CocoCay，我們的成本約為 2%。

Certainly, there are impacts from having more drydock days in 2019 than we have in 2018, but certainly investments in things like technology, data analytics, et cetera, are weighing more onto our costs, and that's because a lot of these investments or costs are not things that are being capitalized based off of how software providers are selling now into the market.

當然，2019 年的乾船塢天數比 2018 年更多會產生影響，但毫無疑問，在技術、數據分析等方面的投資對我們的成本影響更大，這是因為其中許多投資或成本不是根據軟體提供者現在向市場銷售的方式進行資本化的東西。

But we do believe and we are very much committed to making sure that we are effectively managing our costs and trying to realize the scale that comes with the growth of our fleet.

但我們確實相信並且非常致力於確保我們有效地管理我們的成本並努力實現我們機隊成長所帶來的規模。

Your next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis from Instinet.

您的下一個問題來自 Instinet 的 Harry Curtis。

Jason, you referenced the revenue uplift from Excalibur on 50% of your fleet.

Jason，您提到 Excalibur 為您的車隊 50% 帶來了收入成長。

Can you give us more detail on the extent of that revenue uplift?

您能否更詳細地介紹一下收入成長的程度？

And can you share with us any -- are you -- do you have any data on kind of the return that you're getting on the investment that you've been making?

您能否與我們分享您所獲得的投資回報數據？

Well, I think I was talking about, specifically on Excalibur, was just the additional cost that it brings.

嗯，我想我所說的，特別是 Excalibur，只是它帶來的額外成本。

Certainly, as we're rolling Excalibur out, what we are definitely seeing that's very tangible is our net promoter scores, our guest satisfaction is rising quickly as we are very focused in delivering on, taking friction out of the guest experience.

當然，當我們推出 Excalibur 時，我們肯定會看到非常明顯的是我們的淨推薦分數，我們的客戶滿意度正在迅速上升，因為我們非常專注於交付，消除客戶體驗中的摩擦。

That, we believe, is what is leading to higher yields for us, and you'll also see coming online, ways in which we think it will be much easier for the customer to be doing business with us, making it easier to buy things from us, especially when they're on the ship, pre-cruise as well as when they're on the ship, that we think is going to deliver a very solid return for Excalibur.

我們相信，這就是為我們帶來更高收益的原因，您還將看到在線，我們認為客戶將更容易與我們開展業務，從而更容易購買東西我們認為這將為Excalibur 帶來非常可觀的回報，特別是當他們在船上時、巡航前以及在船上時。

Is there -- just a follow up on that.

有嗎——只是對此的後續行動。

Is there a noticeable difference in the revenue uplift from the vessels that had Excalibur versus those that don't, in the fourth quarter?

第四季度，擁有 Excalibur 的船隻與未配備 Excalibur 的船隻的收入成長是否有明顯差異？

We definitely -- well, it's not just the fourth quarter.

我們肯定——嗯，這不僅僅是第四季。

We have been seeing -- there's a strong relationship to where guest satisfaction scores go up and people pay more both for their ticket as well as onboard.

我們已經看到，乘客滿意度分數的上升與人們為機票和機上支付更多費用之間有著密切的關係。

Certainly, ships that we have put Excalibur on, we are seeing those benefits.

當然，我們已經在安裝了 Excalibur 的船上看到了這些好處。

Harry, if I could just amplify on that.

哈利，如果我能詳細說明一下就好了。

One of the things is, a lot of these initiatives, they're hard to single out.

其中之一是，這些舉措中有很多，很難挑選。

We are a brand, and all of these things add to the brand.

我們是一個品牌，所有這些都為品牌增添了色彩。

Obviously, Excalibur is easier to put on the newer ships, for example, which would otherwise do better anyhow.

顯然，Excalibur 更容易安裝在較新的船隻上，否則無論如何都會表現得更好。

And so I'm not sure that we are very good at isolating out this initiative on food or this initiative on entertainment or this initiative on technology, has such an impact.

因此，我不確定我們是否擅長區分這項關於食物的倡議、這項關於娛樂的倡議或這項關於科技的倡議是否會產生如此大的影響。

We're looking at them all in a holistic way, and we think them taken together is what drives improved guest satisfaction, word of mouth, and essentially all of those things are part of a brand.

我們以整體的方式看待它們，我們認為它們結合在一起可以提高賓客滿意度和口碑，而從本質上講，所有這些都是品牌的一部分。

But a brand is an amorphous construct, and it's a little difficult to isolate out on a specific one and say this drove X.

但品牌是一種無定形的結構，很難孤立出某個特定品牌並說它推動了 X。

And while I've got you, I noticed that -- not noticed, but in the fourth quarter, you purchased more stock in Royal Caribbean.

雖然我已經了解了你，但我注意到——沒有註意到，但在第四季度，你買了更多皇家加勒比的股票。

It would appear that the company didn't, and is that just a reflection of the impact of the Silversea acquisition on the balance sheet that you're more focused on your leverage ratio for the time being?

看來公司沒有，這是否只是銀海收購對資產負債表的影響的反映，導致您暫時更關注槓桿率？

Jason?

傑森？

Yes.

是的。

So I'll let Richard comment on his stock purchase, if he would like.

因此，如果理查德願意的話，我會讓他評論一下他買的股票。

But Harry, that's exactly right.

但哈利，這是完全正確的。

I mean, as we had commented before on the last call, that the acquisition of Silversea did stress our credit metrics.

我的意思是，正如我們之前在上次電話會議中評論的那樣，收購銀海確實給我們的信用指標帶來了壓力。

We are focused on being an investment-grade credit.

我們致力於成為投資等級信貸機構。

We are an investment-grade credit, and there are certain metrics, especially debt to EBITDA, that we focus on looking to maintain, which when you make an investment like Silversea can weigh on that a little bit, but as we burn off on some of that debt and our EBITDA gets better here in the short run, there certainly is opportunity to maintain that leverage and provide opportunity in an opportunistic way to buy back shares.

我們是投資等級信貸公司，有一些指標，尤其是EBITDA 債務，我們專注於維持這些指標，當你進行像銀海這樣的投資時，這些指標可能會有點壓力，但當我們消耗掉一些資金時，這些指標就會受到影響。

Probably more in the second half?

下半年可能會更多吧？

There's definitely more headroom in the second half of the year than there is in the first half of the year.

下半年肯定比上半年有更多的空間。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So can you just help me understand the 350 basis point impact that.

那你能幫我了解 350 個基點的影響嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

for 2019 in terms of Silversea, the terminal and the water park?

2019 年銀海郵輪、航廈和水上樂園有何表現？

How would you break that out between the 3 components?

您如何在這三個組件之間進行劃分？

And I guess, I'm a little bit surprised that the contribution isn't higher for one because I think Silversea contributed about 350 basis points by itself to the fourth quarter with only 2 of the 3 months in the quarter.

我想，我對這一貢獻並不更高感到有點驚訝，因為我認為銀海在第四季度僅貢獻了約 350 個基點，而該季度 3 個月中只有 2 個月。

I know there's some seasonality to it, but can you just help me understand the thought there a little bit better?

我知道它有一些季節性，但你能幫助我更好地理解其中的想法嗎？

So first, just on the seasonality side, what we brought into the fourth quarter were 2 of the probably 4 most highest yielding months for Silversea, especially with August being in that consideration.

因此，首先，就季節性而言，我們進入第四季度的內容是銀海郵輪可能 4 個最高收益月份中的 2 個月份，特別是考慮到 8 月。

So that's why it's a little more elevated in terms of the impact on the fourth quarter versus the 350 for the full year.

這就是為什麼它對第四季度的影響比全年 350 的影響要高一些。

I won't sparse out exactly what each one of these things as it relates to our Port of Miami and Perfect Day and Silversea is.

我不會詳細介紹這些與我們的邁阿密港、Perfect Day 和 Silversea 相關的每一件事。

Obviously, the vast majority of it is Silversea.

顯然，其中絕大多數是銀海。

What I would say is that the Port of Miami has come online, is doing exceptionally well, the volumes there are building as we will be adding more and more ships to that terminal over time.

我想說的是，邁阿密港已經上線，運行得非常好，隨著時間的推移，我們將在碼頭增加越來越多的船隻，吞吐量也不斷增加。

And obviously, we talked about CocoCay coming online -- or Perfect Day at CocoCay, I want to make sure I get the marketing right, coming online in May, and that will ramp up not just in terms of the amenities that we will be offering, but also the number of ships and the volumes of guests that we bring there will be ramping up over time as well.

顯然，我們談到了 CocoCay 即將上線，或者說是 CocoCay 的完美一天，我想確保我的營銷是正確的，將於五月上線，這不僅會在我們將提供的便利設施方面得到提升，而且我們帶來的船隻數量和客人數量也會隨著時間的推移而增加。

Okay.

好的。

And Jason, I'm going to be really shortsighted here for a second, and I know everything sounds really positive, but I think just given some of the macro concerns, it's relevant.

傑森，我在這裡真的很目光短淺，我知道一切聽起來都非常積極，但我認為考慮到一些宏觀問題，這是相關的。

You talked about how 2 of the last 3 weeks were record booking weeks, which, I think, implies that the last most recent week may have decelerated some.

您談到過去 3 週中有 2 週是創紀錄的預訂週，我認為這意味著最近一周的預訂量可能有所下降。

Is that just normally a lighter week in WAVE?

這通常是 WAVE 輕鬆的一周嗎？

Or anything else that you'd call out or point to there?

或者還有什麼你會指出或指出的嗎？

Actually, all 3 weeks have been very well, have done exceptionally well.

事實上，這三個星期都非常好，做得非常好。

It just happens that 2 of the 3, and actually, I think it was the first and the third week were better than the second week.

碰巧，三週中有兩週，實際上，我認為第一周和第三週比第二週更好。

So it's -- I won't read into it that it was the first 2. It was actually the first and it was the third.

所以它是——我不會解讀它是前兩個。

And even if we looked at the second one, it was very close to records that we have seen in the past.

即使我們看第二個，它也非常接近我們過去看到的記錄。

Your next question comes from line of Felicia Hendrix from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

I just wanted to kind of continue some of the thought that Steve had earlier in the call, just on costs and you explained why you're looking at 2% this year.

我只是想繼續史蒂夫在電話會議早些時候的一些想法，只是關於成本，你解釋了為什麼今年的成本是 2%。

I'm just trying to understand if we should think about, in the kind of medium term, if that's the new normal.

我只是想了解我們是否應該在中期考慮這是否是新常態。

So like as we're thinking about our 2020 model, should we be starting at a base kind of cost of 2%?

就像我們在考慮 2020 年模型一樣，我們是否應該以 2% 的基本成本開始？

Or are your investments going to be tailing off by then?

或者到那時你的投資會減少嗎？

Well, I wouldn't -- I'm not quite sure what to say would be a new normal, but this year they are approximately 2%.

嗯，我不會——我不太確定該說什麼才算是新常態，但今年這個數字大約是 2%。

What I will tell you is that we are committed to managing effectively our costs.

我要告訴您的是，我們致力於有效管理我們的成本。

We're always highly focused on it, but of course, there are investments that we're making in some things that pressure some of the optics of our metrics, like the Perfect Days of the world that have revenues and costs, but don't necessarily have APCDs associated with them that can elevate that metric a little bit.

我們總是高度關注它，但當然，我們在某些​​方面進行的投資會給我們的某些指標帶來壓力，例如世界上的完美日子，它有收入和成本，但沒有」不一定有與之相關的APCD，可以稍微提升此指標。

But I won't give you a specific number just to -- hopefully everybody knows that we continue to be very focused on it.

但我不會給你一個具體的數字——希望每個人都知道我們將繼續非常關注它。

Okay.

好的。

And then I know you don't want to kind of break out these different buckets of your, kind of, the new aspects or the new drivers on your yield.

然後我知道你不想將你的新面向或新的收益驅動因素分解為這些不同的部分。

But can you just -- we get this question a lot and I'm sure you do too.

但是你能不能──我們常被問到這個問題，我相信你也會這樣做。

Can you just kind of help us think about Perfect Day.

你能幫我們想想完美的一天嗎？

I know a lot of folks are trying to model it.

我知道很多人都在嘗試對其進行建模。

So maybe kind of give us some parameters, number of passengers that might be coming a year, utilization, pricing, just anything that you can help us with our modeling there?

那麼，也許可以給我們一些參數、一年中可能出現的乘客數量、使用率、定價，以及任何可以幫助我們建模的內容？

Felicia, it's Michael.

費利西亞，這是麥可。

Yes, I think when you look at the total portfolio for Royal Caribbean Cruises, I think over 50% of our total capacity is in the Caribbean.

是的，我認為當您查看皇家加勒比遊輪的總投資組合時，我認為我們總運力的 50% 以上位於加勒比地區。

When you look at Royal Caribbean International, we have, I think, 13 ships operating in the Caribbean during the year.

當你看看皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司時，我想我們今年有 13 艘船在加勒比海運營。

And then when you look at the deployment of those ships to Perfect Day in 2019, I believe that 10 of the 13 ships are calling into Perfect Day.

然後，當您查看 2019 年這些船舶部署到 Perfect Day 的情況時，我相信 13 艘船舶中有 10 艘正在呼叫 Perfect Day。

Our projections are that by 2020, so next year, we will be taking just shy of 2 million guests a year to Perfect Day.

我們的預測是，到 2020 年，也就是明年，我們每年將接待近 200 萬名客人來 Perfect Day。

So -- and certainly what we've seen in our bookings, not only in the Caribbean, but particularly for those ships that are scheduled to go to Perfect Day has been really quite positive, and we haven't officially opened it yet.

所以——當然，我們在預訂中看到的情況，不僅是在加勒比海地區，而且特別是那些計劃前往「完美日」的船舶確實非常積極，而且我們還沒有正式開放。

So I hope that gives some context and paints a clearer picture for you.

所以我希望這能為您提供一些背景資訊並描繪出更清晰的畫面。

And then of course, the other element is the sales associated with the experience in Perfect Day, and we've seen our sales of activities and experiences really take off on our pre-cruise sales for the experience.

當然，另一個因素是與 Perfect Day 體驗相關的銷售，我們已經看到我們的活動和體驗銷售確實比我們的遊輪前體驗銷售有所增長。

So we're up by a factor of close to 9, I think, for our Perfect Day sales.

因此，我認為我們的 Perfect Day 銷售額成長了接近 9 倍。

Felicia, if I can -- it's Richard, and if I could just add something to try and address your question.

費利西亞，如果可以的話，我是理查德，我可以添加一些內容來嘗試解決您的問題嗎？

When we identify the costs that we've said are associated with Perfect Day and the revenue and we've adjusted our cost, our yield and expense metrics to take that into account, we've only isolated out the actual costs in the -- on -- that are directly related to CocoCay and the revenues that occur on CocoCay.

當我們確定了我們所說的與 Perfect Day 和收入相關的成本，並且我們調整了我們的成本、我們的產量和費用指標以將其考慮在內時，我們只隔離了實際成本——與CocoCay 以及CocoCay 上產生的收入直接相關。

But one of the impacts of doing an initiative like that is that it improves the ticket revenue, and we can't and we don't isolate that out separately.

但採取這樣的措施的影響之一是它提高了門票收入，而我們不能也不會單獨將其隔離出來。

And it's obviously very hard to measure.

而且這顯然很難衡量。

And that's actually part of what you see going on.

這實際上是你所看到的事情的一部分。

We have a lot of things that we think are helping us on the revenue side that we aren't quantifying.

我們認為有很多東西在收入方面對我們有幫助，但我們沒有量化。

We've really isolated these 3 things, Silversea's, Terminal A and Perfect Day, but there are actually others, and it's a little hard to isolate those out.

我們確實隔離了銀海郵輪、航站樓 A 和 Perfect Day 這 3 個項目，但實際上還有其他項目，而且將它們隔離出來有點困難。

But as Michael said, and he has said even more emphatically on previous calls, we really think Perfect Day is a game changer for us and quite exciting, but it's in more ways than just appear when you isolate it out as a separate expense and a separate revenue.

但正如邁克爾所說，他在之前的電話會議上更強調過，我們確實認為Perfect Day 對我們來說是一個遊戲規則改變者，而且非常令人興奮，但它的表現形式不僅僅是將其作為一項單獨的費用和單獨的收入。

Okay.

好的。

And then Jason, on Silversea, I know most of the synergies are going to come next year when you can refinance the debt, but have you been able to generate any kind of or do you expect to generate any kind of cost synergies in '19?

然後傑森，在銀海郵輪上，我知道明年你可以為債務再融資時，大部分協同效應將會出現，但是你是否能夠在19 年產生任何類型的成本協同效應，或者你是否期望產生任何類型的成本協同效應？

And then also on the earnings side, when we have time after the call, I'm sure we can sit down and calculate this, but maybe you can help, was there -- what was the impact to EPS?

然後在收益方面，當我們在電話會議後有時間時，我相信我們可以坐下來計算這個，但也許你可以幫忙，對每股收益有什麼影響？

Was it neutral or dilutive?

它是中性的還是稀釋性的？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

So one, at the same time that we had announced the Silversea deal, we said it was going to take a few years.

因此，在我們宣布銀海交易的同時，我們表示這將需要幾年的時間。

A lot of that is tied to the financing for it to be accretive to our overall business.

其中很大一部分與融資有關，以增加我們的整體業務。

So I won't be specific in terms of the amount because it's really immaterial to our bottom line.

所以我不會具體說明金額，因為這對我們的底線來說確實不重要。

The cost synergy effort or just synergies in general are going exceptionally well.

成本綜效或整體綜效進展得非常順利。

The Silversea team is very engaged and very focused on growing the business and making the business as efficient and profitable as it can be.

Silversea 團隊非常投入，非常專注於發展業務，並盡可能讓業務有效率和獲利。

We are, I would say, a little bit ahead of schedule on the cost synergy side, and we do have some of the cost synergies accounted for within our guidance for this year.

我想說，在成本協同效應方面，我們比計劃提前了一點，而且我們確實在今年的指導中考慮了一些成本協同效應。

Okay.

好的。

And then just last question, just more housekeeping, but -- and maybe this is an impact of Silversea.

最後一個問題，只是更多的內務管理，但是——也許這是銀海郵輪的影響。

We're just looking at your fuel consumption versus your capacity growth, and typically your fuel consumption is below your capacity growth, excluding some quarters where seasonality might reverse that.

我們只是專注於您的燃料消耗與容量成長的關係，通常您的燃料消耗低於容量成長，不包括季節性可能逆轉的某些季度。

But now your guidance implies fuel consumption above capacity growth.

但現在您的指導意味著燃料消耗高於容量成長。

So I'm just wondering if Silversea is driving that?

所以我只是想知道銀海是否正在駕駛它？

Yes.

是的。

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

Those ships are not as fuel-efficient or really not even close to being as fuel-efficient as our overall fleet.

這些船隻的燃油效率不如我們整個船隊的燃油效率，甚至根本不如我們的整體船隊的燃油效率。

And obviously, they don't benefit from scale as those ships are sailing with passengers between 100 and 600 passengers on them.

顯然，它們並沒有從規模中受益，因為這些船的載客量在 100 到 600 人之間。

So that's what's driving the consumption differential.

這就是推動消費差異的原因。

Do we see going forward, is there a rule of thumb that we should use, should we just use the pattern that we're seeing this year?

我們是否看到了未來的發展，是否有我們應該使用的經驗法則，我們是否應該使用今年看到的模式？

Yes.

是的。

I think once we get through this year, and obviously we're also very focused as part of the synergies on trying to employ many of the energy-saving initiatives that we have done on our existing fleet, trying to get some of those opportunities onto the Silversea fleet.

我認為，一旦我們度過了今年，顯然我們也非常注重協同效應的一部分，嘗試採用我們在現有機隊上所做的許多節能舉措，試圖將其中一些機會運用到銀海艦隊。

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Greg Badishkanian。

Great.

偉大的。

Just for my first question, just to do with the strength of WAVE, any specific regions that really stood out?

對於我的第一個問題，就 WAVE 的實力而言，有哪些特定區域真正脫穎而出？

Is it just North America sourced?

是不是只有北美產的？

And also, just color on the year-over-year growth from pricing during WAVE, is -- was the booking surprisingly positive?

而且，從 WAVE 期間定價的同比增長來看，預訂量是否出乎意料地積極？

Or was it the pricing side that was more of a positive for you?

還是定價方面對您來說更有利？

Yes.

是的。

So first, on the WAVE side, I mean, the only market which we did -- we talked about that had a little bit more volatility to it has been the U.K. Outside of that, we've seen a lot of strength in both volume and benefits on the pricing side as well.

首先，在 WAVE 方面，我的意思是，我們所做的唯一市場 - 我們談到波動性更大的市場是英國。定價方面的好處。

So it's -- again, I mean, we're still in the early days of WAVE, but at least what we have seen over the past 3 to 4 weeks is a good news story on both the volume and pricing.

所以，我的意思是，我們仍處於 WAVE 的早期階段，但至少我們在過去 3 到 4 週內看到的是數量和定價方面的好消息。

Good.

好的。

And then just China, I think you mentioned that bookings were up year-over-year for 2019.

然後是中國，我想您提到 2019 年的預訂量同比增長。

How do you think that market performs for you relative to your overall fleet?

相對於您的整個機隊，您認為該市場的表現如何？

Is it going to outperform, in line?

它會跑贏大盤嗎？

It's going to outperform.

它將表現出色。

This is Michael, Greg.

這是邁克爾，格雷格。

We're pleased with China.

我們對中國感到滿意。

We've had many conversations over China over time.

長期以來，我們就中國問題進行了多次對話。

We've been in the market for 10 years, and we continue development.

我們已經進入市場10年了，我們仍在不斷發展。

And as Jason mentioned, '18 performance was significantly improved from '17 and '19 is in a really good booked position, and we're feeling quite good about the dynamics there at the moment.

正如傑森所提到的，'18 的表現比 '17 有了顯著改善，'19 的預訂位置非常好，我們對目前的動態感覺非常好。

Your next question comes from the line of David Beckel from Bernstein Research.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的大衛貝克爾。

I'll take another stab at the additions of Silversea, CocoCay and Terminal A, if I could.

如果可以的話，我將再次嘗試增加銀海郵輪、可可島和 A 航站樓。

I believe based on your guidance, the math implies all 3 of those will contribute about $15 million of EBITDA or so.

我相信根據您的指導，數學意味著這三家公司將貢獻約 1500 萬美元的 EBITDA 左右。

So first off, is that right?

那麼首先，是這樣嗎？

And second, if so, how should we think about how those investments will contribute in 2020?

其次，如果是這樣，我們應該如何考慮這些投資將如何在 2020 年做出貢獻？

And is there any chance for upside in 2019, I think, as you may have alluded to before?

我認為，正如您之前提到的那樣，2019 年是否有上漲的機會？

Yes.

是的。

So as it relates to the EBITDA, the profitability of it, we're not guiding specifically on these items, but we were comfortable giving how it impacts our yield as well as our cost metrics.

因此，由於它與 EBITDA（息稅折舊攤銷前利潤）及其盈利能力相關，因此我們不會對這些項目進行專門指導，但我們很樂意給出它如何影響我們的收益以及成本指標。

I think when you think about, as it goes into 2020, first off, we're into all of these investments for them to be accretive to our business and be high returning and certainly we expect in 2020 there to be more contribution from all 3. The Port of Miami, because we'll have more volumes, as Michael commented.

我認為，當你想到 2020 年時，首先，我們進行所有這些投資，以增加我們的業務並獲得高回報，當然我們預計在 2020 年，所有 3 個領域都會做出更多貢獻邁阿密港，因為我們會有更多的數量，正如邁克爾評論的那樣。

On CocoCay, we will have almost 2 million guests going through CocoCay in 2020, and there'll be more and more amenities available to those guests on the island.

在 CocoCay 上，到 2020 年，我們將有近 200 萬客人經過 CocoCay，島上的客人將可以使用越來越多的設施。

And a lot of our synergies will be implemented through 2020 on Silversea, and Silversea will also take on a new ship in 2020, which will even improve further their scale on their business.

我們的許多綜效將在2020年在銀海郵輪上實現，銀海郵輪也將在2020年接收一艘新船，甚至將進一步提高他們的業務規模。

Great.

偉大的。

And as a second question, a bit higher level.

作為第二個問題，級別更高一些。

Looks like you stand a reasonably good chance of hitting double-digit EPS this year, which would be a year ahead of schedule relative to 20/20 Vision.

看起來今年你的每股盈餘達到兩位數的機會相當大，相對於 20/20 Vision 來說，這將提前一年。

So 2 quick questions, and please remind us, was the original guidance of double-digit EPS inclusive of a economic disturbance of a material sort?

那麼有兩個簡單的問題，請提醒我們，兩位數每股盈餘的最初指引是否包括實質的經濟幹擾？

And the second, has the ROIC component of your Vision 20/20 tracked according to your expectations thus far?

第二，到目前為止，您的 Vision 20/20 的 ROIC 部分是否按照您的預期進行了追蹤？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

So first on the 20/20, we did say that we would reach double-digit growth.

因此，首先在 20/20 年，我們確實說過我們將實現兩位數的成長。

We didn't say exactly what that double-digit number would be, but as you commented on, we -- the higher end of our guidance is $10 per share, and we'll certainly work as hard as we can to do as well as we possibly can to reach high EPS growth.

我們沒有具體說明這個兩位數的數字是多少，但正如您所評論的，我們指導的上限是每股 10 美元，我們當然也會盡我們所能地努力做到這一點我們盡可能實現每股收益的高成長。

The ROIC number in general is on track.

ROIC 數字整體上處於正軌。

Obviously, our investment in Silversea weighs on that a little bit, but our other investments have really outperformed, which is allowing us to see our ROIC continue to move north.

顯然，我們對銀海的投資對此有一點影響，但我們的其他投資確實表現出色，這讓我們看到我們的投資資本回報率繼續向北移動。

So I think that's kind of how we see things to continue to evolve.

所以我認為這就是我們看待事物繼續發展的方式。

The one comment I would make, just to put something into context, if you look at 2019 and the guide that we've given, if we had the same FX and fuel rates at this time last year, that number would actually be about $0.40 higher than what we're guiding today.

我想說的一個評論是，如果你看看 2019 年和我們給出的指南，如果我們去年這個時候有相同的外匯和燃油費率，這個數字實際上約為 0.40 美元高於我們今天的指導值。

And so that is one factor that has changed for us, but trying to project what economic changes there might be going forward, that's not something that we do in our forecasting for the future.

因此，這是我們變化的一個因素，但試圖預測未來可能發生的經濟變化，這並不是我們在預測未來時所做的事情。

And was the original EPS target inclusive of economic disturbances?

最初的每股盈餘目標是否包含經濟幹擾？

No.

不。

It was basically -- it was based off of moderate yield growth, good cost control and being measured in our capital investments.

它基本上是基於適度的產量成長、良好的成本控制以及我們的資本投資的衡量。

Your next question comes from the line of James Hardiman from Wedbush Securities.

您的下一個問題來自韋德布希證券公司 (Wedbush Securities) 的詹姆斯哈迪曼 (James Hardiman)。

I wanted to circle back and maybe just get a little bit of a clarification on one of Steve's original questions.

我想回過頭來，也許只是對史蒂夫最初的問題之一得到一點澄清。

Obviously, the core yield guide to start the year is better than at least I can remember.

顯然，年初的核心報酬率指南至少比我記憶中的還要好。

Jason, you sounded pretty positive, and I think Richard has contributed to this as well on the like-for-like trend.

傑森，你聽起來相當積極，我認為理查德也為這一趨勢做出了貢獻。

I guess my clarification is, is the like-for-like yield guidance, once we obviously exclude Silversea and even the new hardware, is that better to start 2019 than it's been in previous years?

我想我的澄清是，一旦我們明顯排除 Silversea 甚至新硬件，類似的收益率指導是否會比前幾年更好地開始 2019 年？

Sure.

當然。

It is higher than what we have seen historically in the past on the like-for-like side.

它高於我們過去所看到的同類水平。

So if you look at just our -- the core, which we're calling out approximately 4%, more than half of that is coming from like-for-like growth and the balance of that is coming from the new hardware.

因此，如果你只看我們的核心，我們稱之為大約 4%，其中一半以上來自同比增長，其餘部分來自新硬體。

Got it.

知道了。

That's really helpful and really encouraging.

這真的很有幫助，也很鼓舞人心。

And then just a housekeeping question for me, maybe save Carola some phone calls here.

然後我想問一個家政問題，也許可以為卡羅拉省下一些電話。

Can you give us the quarterly capacity numbers?

您能給我們季度產能數據嗎？

And is there any way to give us the nonorganic contribution stuff, the yield contributor, Silversea, CocoCay, Miami Port, on a quarterly basis?

有沒有什麼方法可以按季度向我們提供非有機貢獻、收益貢獻者、Silversea、CocoCay、邁阿密港？

Obviously that's going to be a pretty big building block of how we build out our models.

顯然，這將成為我們建構模型的一個相當大的組成部分。

Is there any way to give us or at least directionally how to think about that over the course of the year?

有沒有什麼方法可以讓我們或至少有方向性地在這一年裡如何思考這個問題？

Well, one, it is my job and life to make Carola's life easier.

嗯，第一，讓卡羅拉的生活變得更輕鬆是我的工作和生活。

I want to make sure that she has a fruitful afternoon.

我想確保她度過一個富有成果的下午。

So I'll leave her for more details, but certainly, as I said, most of our capacity growth for the year will take place in the first half of the year.

因此，我將讓她了解更多細節，但當然，正如我所說，我們今年的大部分產能成長將發生在今年上半年。

And as I -- also as I commented, our yield or our cadence for our yield is pretty much the same within certain levels of moderation through the course of the year to consider.

正如我所評論的，我們的產量或我們的產量節奏在全年的一定程度的適度範圍內幾乎是相同的。

And that's on a total basis, it's a similar cadence, not on a organic or inorganic?

整體而言，這是一個類似的節奏，而不是有機或無機的？

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

On a total basis, it's the same.

從整體來看，是一樣的。

On a combined basis, on a gross basis, but also on the core, it also has a similar cadence to it through the course of the year.

在綜合基礎上，在總量基礎上，而且在核心基礎上，它在一年中也有類似的節奏。

Okay.

好的。

And then just lastly, way too early question on 2020, but some of these nonorganic contributors, I would assume that Silversea is going to be a wash in terms of yields and costs.

最後，關於 2020 年的問題還為時過早，但對於其中一些非有機貢獻者，我認為銀海在收益率和成本方面將是一場慘敗。

I'm guessing that the Miami terminal will as well, but should we also assume some sort of inflation from cost and also an addition to yields for Perfect Day, given the timing in 2019?

我猜邁阿密航站樓也會如此，但考慮到 2019 年的時間表，我們是否還應該假設某種成本通膨以及 Perfect Day 的收益增加？

Well, I mean, it's -- it is, as you said, it's early days to start thinking about 2020, but I would focus more on the port in CocoCay and even with Silversea.

嗯，我的意思是，正如你所說，現在開始考慮 2020 年還為時過早，但我會更多地關注可可島的港口，甚至銀海郵輪。

Silversea's going to grow next year.

銀海郵輪明年將會成長。

There's going to be more volume coming out of the terminal, and there's going to be more volume coming out of Perfect Day, all of which will have both yield and cost considerations to it in 2020.

終端的吞吐量將會增加，Perfect Day 的吞吐量也會增加，所有這些都將在 2020 年同時考慮產量和成本。

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Conder from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Timothy Conder。

I did want to follow up, drilling a little bit more here, maybe James was alluding to on 2020 a little bit and your implications for the current state of bookings also out of Europe.

我確實想跟進，在這裡進行更多研究，也許詹姆斯提到了 2020 年，以及您對歐洲以外預訂狀況的影響。

So it appears that Germany is okay, you only called out a little volatility from the U.K., but how are -- it's early obviously, but how are the bookings with the TUI JV out of Germany.

所以看起來德國還不錯，你只是指出了英國的一點波動，但是情況如何——顯然還為時過早，但來自德國的 TUI 合資公司的預訂情況如何。

And then considering 2020 and some changes with ships coming in and out of the TUI JV fleet, how should we think about the TUI JV contribution in '19 and then '20, just to make sure, as that's become a pretty significant and very nice JV operation obviously?

然後考慮到 2020 年以及進出 TUI 合資船隊的船舶發生的一些變化，我們應該如何考慮 TUI 合資公司在 19 年和 20 年的貢獻，只是為了確定，因為這已經成為一個非常重要和非常好的合資營運明顯嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

So first just talking on the EU side, which also ties into your comment around Germany.

首先談談歐盟方面，這也與您對德國的評論有關。

First, on the U.K. piece, we really said that there's just been volatility, but that volatility has certainly stabilized and again the volatility typically happens around the new cycle in the U.K. Broader Europe has actually done quite well.

首先，在英國方面，我們確實說過，剛剛出現了波動，但波動肯定已經穩定下來，而且波動通常發生在英國的新周期周圍，而大歐洲實際上表現得相當不錯。

Germany is doing well, typically TUI is also doing well.

德國做得很好，途易也做得很好。

So we don't comment specifically on TUI's yield guidance or specifically to their profitability.

因此，我們不會具體評論途易的收益指引或獲利能力。

The one thing I would say in '19 is that TUI does take on another ship, which is good for us as it relates to the income that we will get with the equity pickup we will get from TUI.

我在 19 年要說的一件事是，TUI 確實接收了另一艘船，這對我們有好處，因為這關係到我們從 TUI 獲得的股權收益所獲得的收入。

So that will continue to expand our equity pickups.

因此，這將繼續擴大我們的股票收購規模。

In 2020, they do not have a new ship and so some of that uplift that we've seen now for the past several years will be a little bit lighter.

2020 年，他們沒有新船，因此過去幾年我們看到的一些提升將會稍微減輕一些。

We're more driven off of the margins that they get off of their existing fleet for the next couple of years.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們將更加剝奪他們從現有機隊中獲得的利潤。

And so that's how I would think about those 2 line items.

這就是我對這兩個項目的看法。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Michael, China, Jason alluded to earlier that China was up in bookings, you responded to the previous question that it's positioned well.

然後，邁克爾，中國，傑森早些時候提到中國的預訂量有所增加，你回答了先前的問題，中國的定位很好。

How is pricing at this point going year-over-year, if you can have any commentary on that?

目前的定價情況與去年同期相比如何，您能對此發表評論嗎？

And then CocoCay, just maybe a little more Perfect Day, how are your bookings and maybe price uptake, so to speak, tracking at this point versus the expectations of what you guys have built into the budget?

然後，CocoCay，也許是更完美的一天，您的預訂情況以及價格接受情況如何，可以說，目前的跟踪情況與您在預算中的預期相比？

So we're not going to go into specific details on price increases by products or market, but I can tell you that overall the China market, I think, I'd mentioned earlier, we've seen good improvement in '18 over '17, and we are seeing similar improvement now coming through into '19.

因此，我們不會詳細討論產品或市場價格上漲的具體細節，但我可以告訴你，我認為，我之前提到的整個中國市場，我們在「18 年以來」已經看到了良好的改善。 ，我們看到類似的改進現在正在進入19 年。

Of course, we've got the addition of our newest ship, Spectrum of the Seas, that's going into the China market.

當然，我們也增加了即將進入中國市場的最新船舶「海洋光譜號」。

So we're excited about that and the consumer seems to be excited about the introduction of that new product as well as our trade partners.

因此，我們對此感到興奮，消費者似乎對新產品的推出以及我們的貿易夥伴感到興奮。

So things are looking quite good in the China market.

因此，中國市場的情況看起來相當不錯。

And, of course, overall, there's been an industry capacity decrease of somewhere in the region of 15%, 20%.

當然，整體而言，產業產能下降了 15%、20% 左右。

So China's in good shape, even though there's quite a lot of negativity in terms of the news that we hear with regards to the trade battle that's occurring, but the consumer seems to be quite confident, and things seem to be relatively good in China.

因此，中國的狀況良好，儘管我們聽到的有關正在發生的貿易戰的消息有很多負面因素，但消費者似乎相當有信心，而且中國的情況似乎相對較好。

In Perfect Day, I think we mentioned earlier, that we've been very pleased with the demand that we've seen coming through on the products that have course into Perfect Day, and that's been a real positive driver of our Caribbean overall health in terms of bookings.

在“完美日”中，我想我們之前提到過，我們對完美日中產品的需求感到非常滿意，這對我們加勒比地區的整體健康狀況起到了真正的積極推動作用。

And we've also seen really good uptake in terms of the pre-cruise sales of experiences and products on Perfect Day.

我們也看到 Perfect Day 的遊輪前體驗和產品銷售情況非常好。

So both of these really are quite positive.

所以這兩者確實都是非常正面的。

And lastly, Jason, you had alluded to with Excalibur coming on and the trends that you're seeing there, if I remember right, at an Analyst Day, you talked about maybe an enhanced e-commerce engine being laid over the top of that in the latter half of '19.

最後，傑森，您曾提到 Excalibur 的出現以及您在那裡看到的趨勢，如果我沒記錯的話，在分析師日上，您談到可能會在其之上部署一個增強的電子商務引擎19年下半年。

Any additional color you can provide there?

您可以在那裡提供任何其他顏色嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So there is lots of elements and attributes that are being added onto the Excalibur platform.

因此，Excalibur 平台上添加了許多元素和屬性。

One of that will be for us to be able to be -- it will all be easier for the customer as we are able to curate and have recommendation engines to allow our guests to more easily book things before they get onto the ship.

其中之一是我們能夠——這對客戶來說會更容易，因為我們能夠策劃並擁有推薦引擎，讓我們的客人在上船之前更輕鬆地預訂東西。

And as we know in the past, if we can get the consumer to book ahead of the cruise, we also are able to get them to also spend when they're on the ship.

正如我們過去所知，如果我們能夠讓消費者在遊輪之前預訂，我們也能夠讓他們在船上時進行消費。

So those capabilities will be coming online through the course of 2019, but I would expect more of a full year impact impacting us in 2020.

因此，這些功能將在 2019 年上線，但我預計 2020 年會對我們產生更大的全年影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）。

I guess 2 follow ups.

我猜有 2 個後續行動。

First, I guess, coming at the Perfect Day terminal and Silversea cost questions from a different angle, what percentage of the costs are onetime versus ongoing expenses?

首先，我想，從不同的角度來看 Perfect Day 航站樓和 Silversea 的成本問題，一次性成本與持續成本的比例是多少？

And then as you think about the ultimate ROI on Perfect Day, are there other opportunities or regions you've identified to develop something similar, or is it still early, that could further differentiate and strengthen the brand?

然後，當您考慮 Perfect Day 的最終投資回報率時，您是否已經確定了其他機會或地區來開發類似的產品，或者現在還為時過早，可以進一步差異化和強化品牌嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So as it relates to onetime, I think the only thing that I would call out, because there's nothing really relating to CocoCay or Perfect Day, that is onetime.

因此，當它涉及到一次時，我想我唯一要指出的是，因為與 CocoCay 或 Perfect Day 沒有什麼真正相關的，那就是一次。

As we announced many, many months ago when we bought Silversea, we announced Project Invictus, which was really to help modernize their ships.

正如我們在很多很多個月前收購銀海郵輪時宣布的那樣，我們宣布了“不敗計劃”，這實際上是為了幫助他們的船舶現代化。

And so they do have more -- they had more drydock activity in the fourth quarter of '18 and of course since it's on a quarter lag, that is inflating our cost metric a little bit in the first quarter, which is why that's -- the highest cost quarter for us on a gross level.

所以他們確實有更多——他們在 18 年第四季度有更多的乾船塢活動，當然，因為有一個季度的滯後，這使得我們第一季的成本指標略有增加，這就是為什麼——這是我們整體成本最高的季度。

I would say that on the Perfect Day side, just to quickly comment, we will -- it is obviously a major focus of ours.

我想說，在完美的一天方面，只是為了快速發表評論，我們會——這顯然是我們的一個主要焦點。

We want to get this thing launched, understand how the consumer takes to that and then consider whether or not there are future opportunities for us to consider.

我們希望推出這個產品，了解消費者對此有何看法，然後考慮未來是否有機會供我們考慮。

Nice, helpful.

很好，很有幫助。

And one other follow-up on China.

還有一個關於中國的後續行動。

Can you just give us any update on the efforts to kind of alter the distribution model there and perhaps whether the incremental demand for non-China itineraries could potentially play into that?

您能否向我們介紹一下為改變那裡的分銷模式所做的努力的最新情況，以及對非中國行程的增量需求是否可能會影響到這一點？

Yes.

是的。

Stephen, it's Michael.

史蒂芬，我是麥可。

We've been on the journey to develop distribution for the past few years, and we feel pretty pleased with the journey that we're on and the progress that we've been making.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直致力於開發分銷，我們對我們正在進行的旅程和所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

And I think that's been part of the success that we are having now in China, is the growth of the distribution system.

我認為我們現在在中國取得的成功的一部分是分銷系統的發展。

So we're feeling pretty good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

And sorry, the second part of your question was?

抱歉，您問題的第二部分是？

It was just, I guess, it plays into it, but whether the non-China itineraries can potentially accelerate that, if you're just seeing greater demand there and maybe earlier booking?

我想，這只是其中的一部分，但如果你看到那裡的需求更大，而且可能會更早預訂，那麼非中國行程是否有可能加速這一進程？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, there was few elements to our strategy in China.

我的意思是，我們在中國的戰略幾乎沒有什麼要素。

One was the distribution, the other one was adding longer itineraries for the China market itself, ex China, which had proven to be quite successful.

一是分銷，二是為中國市場本身（中國除外）增加更長的行程，事實證明這是相當成功的。

And then, of course, the third element that you pointed out is the focus on outbound.

當然，您指出的第三個要素是對出站的關注。

It is the world's largest outbound travel market, and things are changing with regard to visa restrictions and group travel and what have you, and we're starting to see an improvement in terms of the number of Chinese guests who are going through our products in Alaska and the Mediterranean and Europe, and we think that's an opportunity, particularly as the brand becomes more and more well known in the China market and as we establish wider, broader, deeper distribution, then it becomes a really good opportunity for us in terms of that outbound growth.

中國是世界上最大的出境旅遊市場，簽證限制、團體旅遊等方面的情況正在發生變化，我們開始看到使用我們產品的中國客人數量有所改善。 ，特別是隨著該品牌在中國市場變得越來越知名，並且隨著我們建立更廣泛、更廣泛、更深入的分銷，那麼這對我們來說是一個非常好的機會出境增長。

And your last question comes from the line of Brandt Montour from JPMorgan.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brandt Montour。

I was just hoping you could maybe unpack your fuel guidance a little bit more and help us understand what you're assuming in terms of at-the-pump pricing, if you're giving full credit for the backwardation of the curve or if you're -- what are you assuming for the MGO spread, anything on that would be helpful.

我只是希望你能稍微詳細地解釋一下你的燃料指南，並幫助我們理解你在加油站定價方面的假設，如果你完全相信曲線的現貨溢價，或者如果你你對MGO 的傳播有什麼假設，任何關於這方面的事情都會有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

So as it relates to our guidance on the fuel side, obviously, we're about 58% hedged for the year and then when you look it as it relates to fuel price, we forecast based off of what fuel prices are today.

因此，由於它與我們在燃料方面的指導有關，顯然，我們今年對沖了大約 58%，然後當你將其視為與燃料價格相關時，我們根據今天的燃料價格進行預測。

We don't speculate or pivot off of the forward curve.

我們不會推測或偏離遠期曲線。

And that includes -- sorry, and that includes MGO spreads as well, that would be just today.

這包括——抱歉，也包括 MGO 價差，這只是今天。

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Thank you for your assistance, James, with the call today.

詹姆斯，感謝您今天致電的幫助。

And we thank you all for your participation and interest in the company.

我們感謝大家的參與和對公司的興趣。

Carola will be available for any follow up you might have, and I wish you and we wish you all a very great day.

卡羅拉將隨時為您提供任何後續服務，我祝福您和我們祝福大家有愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。