皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Erica, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫艾莉卡，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Cruises' 2014 fourth quarter earnings conference call.

現在，我謹歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比遊輪公司 2014 年第四季財報電話會議。

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Mr. Jason Liberty, CFO for Royal Caribbean, please begin your conference.

皇家加勒比財務長 Jason Liberty 先生，請開始您的會議。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for the fourth quarter earnings call.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me here in Miami are Richard Fain, our chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Adam Goldstein, President and Chief Operating Officer; Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Laura Hodges, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

與我一起來到邁阿密的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官理查德·費恩 (Richard Fain)； Adam Goldstein，總裁兼營運長；貝利 (Michael Bayley)，皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼執行長；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁勞拉·霍奇斯 (Laura Hodges)。

During this call we will be referring to a few slides which I have posted on the investor web site www.rclinvestor.com.

在這次電話會議中，我們將參考我在投資者網站 www.rclinvestor.com 上發布的幾張投影片。

Before we get started, I would like to refer you to our notice about forward-looking statements, which is on our first slide.

在我們開始之前，我想請您參閱我們關於前瞻性陳述的通知，該通知位於我們的第一張投影片上。

During this call we will be making comments that are forward-looking.

在這次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性評論。

These statements do not guarantee future performance and do involve risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述並不保證未來的業績，並且確實涉及風險和不確定性。

Examples are described in our SEC filings and other disclosures.

我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他揭露的資訊中描述了範例。

Also we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of these items can be found on our website.

此外，我們還將討論某些根據定義進行調整的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些項目的調節表可以在我們的網站上找到。

Richard will begin by providing a strategic overview of the business.

理查德將首先提供業務的策略概述。

I will follow with a recap of our fourth quarter and our full-year results.

接下來，我將回顧我們的第四季和全年業績。

I will then provide an update on our current booking environment, and will end with full year and first quarter guidance for 2015.

然後我將提供有關我們當前預訂環境的最新信息，並以 2015 年全年和第一季的指導結束。

We will then open the call up for your questions.

然後我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

Richard?

理查德？

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

And thanks to all of you for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

As always, I welcome this opportunity to provide a bit more color on our results for the year and our perspective of the year ahead of us.

一如既往，我很高興有這個機會為我們今年的業績以及我們對未來一年的展望提供更多的色彩。

Before I begin, I would like to take a moment to acknowledge the recent promotions of two accomplished veterans and leaders -- Michael Bayley, who has taken over as President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Lisa Lutoff-Perlo, who has taken over as President and Chief Executive Officer at Celebrity Cruises.

在開始之前，我想花點時間感謝兩位卓有成效的退伍軍人和領導者最近的晉升——邁克爾·貝利 (Michael Bayley)，他已接任皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼首席執行官；麗莎·盧托夫-佩洛 (Lisa Lutoff-Perlo) 已接任精緻遊輪 (Celebrity Cruises) 總裁兼執行長。

It has been gratifying to watch their careers develop over the several decades they have been with us.

我們很高興看到他們在我們工作的幾十年中取得了職業發展。

They really have differentiated themselves with their passion and their tenacity.

他們確實憑藉著他們的熱情和堅韌使自己與眾不同。

One advantage of promoting such experienced talent is that there is no learning curve.

提拔此類經驗豐富的人才的優點之一是沒有學習曲線。

They have both hit the road running and were already implementing changes that will drive both brands forward.

他們都已經上路並已經實施了推動兩個品牌向前發展的變革。

I say congratulations to them both.

我向他們兩人表示祝賀。

It is also a pleasure to be talking to you as we finish with one very good year and as we start another exciting one.

我也很高興與您交談，我們結束了美好的一年，開啟了另一個激動人心的一年。

At Royal Caribbean we start every discussion with how it will affect our double-double goals, and I would like to do that here, too.

在皇家加勒比，我們每次討論都會從這將如何影響我們的兩雙目標開始，我也想在這裡這樣做。

I'm pleased to confirm that the results that we are announcing for 2014 and the results that we are forecasting for 2015 are very much in line with our double-double program.

我很高興地確認，我們宣布的 2014 年結果和我們預測的 2015 年結果與我們的雙雙計畫非常一致。

We remain convinced the program has realistic goals and that we are on the right track to success.

我們仍然相信該計劃有現實的目標，並且我們正走在成功的正確軌道上。

You will recall that the three pillars of this program, which we have outlined slide two are growing revenue yields, maintaining cost consciousness, and moderate capacity growth.

您可能還記得，我們​​在第二張幻燈片中概述的該計劃的三大支柱是增加收入、保持成本意識和適度的產能成長。

On the revenue front, we continue to be very pleased with the performance of the newest vessel, Quantum of the Seas, and we are thrilled to be taking delivery of her sister ship, Anthem of the Seas, this spring.

在收入方面，我們仍然對最新船舶「海洋量子號」的性能感到非常滿意，我們很高興能在今年春天接收她的姊妹船「海洋聖歌號」。

Both vessels are experiencing heavy bookings and are large drivers of the positive revenue picture for 2015.

這兩艘船的預訂量都很大，是 2015 年積極收入前景的主要動力。

Now the last time I spoke on one of these calls, Quantum of the Seas was still under construction.

上次我在其中一次通話中發言時，海洋量子號仍在建造中。

As you recall, I was optimistic even then about how she would be received, but one can never be certain until the construction is complete.

正如你所記得的，我當時就對她會受到怎樣的接待感到樂觀，但在施工完成之前永遠無法確定。

In this case, my expectations have proven accurate, and the demand has been simply extraordinary.

在這種情況下，我的期望被證明是準確的，而且需求也非常巨大。

The reaction in China has been particularly exciting.

中國的反應尤其令人興奮。

The Royal Caribbean International brand continues to be synonymous with cruising in China, and the market anxiously awaits the arrival of Quantum.

皇家加勒比國際品牌在中國繼續成為郵輪的代名詞，市場焦急地等待量子號的到來。

We are thrilled with her book and pricing performance to date but we expect her to help further increase our market share this in important market.

我們對她迄今為止的書籍和定價表現感到興奮，但我們希望她能幫助進一步提高我們在重要市場的市場份額。

Our capacity in China is growing 66% this year and we look forward to continued yield accretion in this profitable market.

今年我們在中國的產能成長了 66%，我們期待這個利潤豐厚的市場的產量持續成長。

At the same time, the Oasis-class vessels on the Royal Caribbean International brand and the Solstice-class vessels on the Celebrity brand remain the best in their competitive set and continue to deliver returns on the rest of our upgraded fleet continues to demonstrate improved performance.

同時，皇家加勒比國際品牌的綠洲級船舶和名人品牌的至日級船舶仍然是同類船舶中最好的，並繼續為我們升級船隊的其餘部分帶來回報，繼續表現出更好的性能。

Our brands have never been stronger and we will continue to capitalize on their equity as we move through 2015.

我們的品牌從未如此強大，我們將在 2015 年繼續利用它們的資產。

In this regard it is important to note that our guest satisfaction for 2014 was at the record levels.

在這方面，值得注意的是，2014 年我們的賓客滿意度達到了創紀錄的水平。

Equally important our employee engagement surveys also reached record levels.

同樣重要的是，我們的員工敬業度調查也達到了創紀錄的水平。

Obviously, these factors are related.

顯然，這些因素是相關的。

We continue to believe that a more engaged employee team drives greater guest satisfaction which in turn drives greater brand strength which ultimately describes greater returns on investment for our shareholders.

我們仍然相信，更敬業的員工團隊可以提高賓客滿意度，進而提高品牌實力，最終為我們的股東帶來更大的投資回報。

Separately, we are also very pleased that the SkySea Cruises will begin operations later this year.

另外，我們也非常高興天海遊輪將於今年稍後開始營運。

SkySea is our joint venture with Ctrip, and it will begin operating a revitalized Celebrity Century in China in the middle of 2015.

天海是我們與攜程的合資企業，將於2015年中期在中國開始營運重新煥發活力的名人世紀。

This is yet another opportunity for us to broaden our reach, and to take an increasing leadership position in this vast growing market.

這是我們擴大業務範圍並在這個巨大的不斷增長的市場中佔據日益增長的領導地位的又一個機會。

On the cost side I'm impressed with the efforts being made, and congratulate both our finance organization and our operating management on generating solid cost reductions in 2014.

在成本方面，我對我們所做的努力印象深刻，並祝賀我們的財務組織和營運管理層在 2014 年實現了切實的成本削減。

I know we originally targeted costs to be down slightly, and our ultimate result was down 0.6%, was better than I had expected.

我知道我們最初的目標是稍微降低成本，最終結果是下降了 0.6%，比我預期的要好。

In 2015 we continue our commitment to maintaining a cost-conscious culture.

2015 年，我們持續致力於維持成本意識文化。

We are projecting costs being held to 1% or better while still investing in strategic initiatives that drive rapid returns.

我們預計成本將控制在 1% 或更高，同時仍投資於可帶來快速回報的策略性舉措。

I think it is particularly interesting to note that virtually all of the unit cost increases in 2015 is attributable to ramping up operations in China.

我認為特別有趣的是，2015 年幾乎所有單位成本的成長都歸因於中國業務的增加。

Lastly, on the capacity component of our double-double program, our growth is immutable, at least through 2017.

最後，就我們雙雙計畫的產能部分而言，我們的成長是一成不變的，至少到 2017 年是如此。

We did recently announce two new additions to the Celebrity Cruises brand under the name Project Edge but those vessels won't join the fleet until 2018 or 2020.

我們最近確實宣布了 Celebrity Cruises 品牌的兩艘新船，名為 Project Edge，但這些船要到 2018 年或 2020 年才會加入船隊。

We also continue to be open to divesting older tonnage as opportunities arise.

當機會出現時，我們也繼續對剝離舊噸位持開放態度。

Now returning to last year's results, 2014 was, happily, a record-breaking year for our company.

現在回到去年的業績，令人高興的是，2014 年對我們公司來說是破紀錄的一年。

Adjusted earnings per share were $3.39, an increase of 40% over the previous year and we are pleased in 2014 to have added to the S&P 500 index, by any measure a great year.

調整後每股收益為 3.39 美元，比上一年增長 40%，我們很高興 2014 年被納入標準普爾 500 指數，無論從哪個角度來看都是偉大的一年。

I would like to thank the management team as well as all of the employees of Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd.

我要感謝皇家加勒比遊輪有限公司的管理團隊以及所有員工。

for the dedication and their hard work in achieving the milestone results.

感謝他們為實現里程碑式成果所做的奉獻和辛勤工作。

The year ended on a slightly schizophrenic note.

這一年在一種略顯精神分裂的氣氛中結束了。

On the one hand, forward bookings were robust, and we ended 2014 the best booked status in our Company's history.

一方面，遠期預訂表現強勁，2014 年我們實現了公司歷史上最好的預訂狀態。

Pretty good.

不錯。

Starting the year with fewer berths to fill really helps us raise our yields as the year progresses.

在新的一年開始時，需要填補的泊位數量較少，這確實有助於我們隨著時間的推移提高產量。

On the other hand, close-in bookings in the fourth quarter were more sluggish than we expected.

另一方面，第四季的近距離預訂比我們預期的要低迷。

The culprit continues to be a stubbornly challenging Caribbean, and the dynamics which are driving that situation carry on through the first quarter.

罪魁禍首仍然是頑固地具有挑戰性的加勒比地區，而推動這種情況的動力將持續到第一季。

Fortunately, lower costs and better performance by our equity investments offset the yields.

幸運的是，我們股權投資的較低成本和更好的業績抵消了收益率。

The big winners on revenue were in Asia, Europe and Alaska, with all products over-delivering.

收入的大贏家來自亞洲、歐洲和阿拉斯加，所有產品都超額交付。

Onboard revenue was another positive with another year of good yield growth.

船上收入是另一個積極因素，收益率又實現了良好成長。

Now, looking to 2015 as you know, we are now entering or have entered our WAVE period and we watch the pace of bookings during this period closely.

現在，如您所知，展望 2015 年，我們正在進入或已經進入 WAVE 時期，我們密切關注這段期間的預訂速度。

While it is still early in the WAVE, overall we are encouraged by what we see.

雖然現在還處於 WAVE 的早期階段，但總的來說，我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞。

Of course, we always want WAVE to be especially powerful but what we have seen is a good, solid and typical start to the WAVE period.

當然，我們總是希望 WAVE 特別強大，但我們看到的是 WAVE 時期良好、堅實和典型的開始。

Looking again at 2015, it remains a tale of two periods.

回顧2015年，仍是兩個時期的故事。

The first period is the first quarter which as we have said before continues to struggle.

第一個時期是第一季度，正如我們之前所說，該季度繼續陷入困境。

This is the tail end of a period with large capacity additions in the Caribbean and also has the fallout from 2014's Caribbean malaise but the last nine months of the year are a very different story.

這是加勒比海地區產能大幅增加的時期的尾聲，也受到了 2014 年加勒比地區經濟不景氣的影響，但今年最後 9 個月的情況卻截然不同。

Once we lap the first quarter, yields on all products are expected to be up in the mid-single digits.

一旦第一季結束，所有產品的收益率預計將增長至個位數左右。

As a result, although it is still early days, we are expecting yields to increase 2.5% to 4.5% in 2015.

因此，儘管現在還為時過早，但我們預計 2015 年收益率將成長 2.5% 至 4.5%。

Given all of the above, we are pleased to provide adjusted earnings guidance in the range of $4.65 to $4.85 per share for the full-year 2015.

考慮到上述所有因素，我們很高興為 2015 年全年提供每股 4.65 美元至 4.85 美元的調整後獲利指引。

The midpoint of this range implies another 40% increase in earnings and another step, good step, towards our double-double goals.

這個範圍的中點意味著收入再增加 40%，並且朝著我們的雙雙目標又邁出了一步，很好的一步。

We are well on our way to doubling our 2014 earnings as well as reaching double-digit returns on invested capital by 2017.

我們正在順利實現 2014 年收益翻倍的目標，並在 2017 年實現投資資本回報率達到兩位數。

I don't have to tell you that an added benefit of moving towards the double-double is that our free cash flow improves.

我不必告訴你，邁向兩雙的另一個好處是我們的自由現金流得到改善。

We believe that it is reasonable that our board would consider returning capital in due course vis-a-vis increasing dividends and/or buying back shares.

我們認為，我們的董事會考慮在適當的時候返還資本而不是增加股息和/或回購股票是合理的。

Everyone knows that the world price of oil dropped precipitously soon after our earnings call at the end of October, but the impact on us from sharp movements in price are a little more complex than many people focus on.

大家都知道，在我們 10 月底的財報電話會議之後不久，世界石油價格就急劇下跌，但價格大幅波動對我們的影響比許多人關注的要複雜一些。

Slide three shows the world price of Brent crude oil dropped suddenly starting in early November.

幻燈片三顯示，從 11 月初開始，世界布蘭特原油價格突然下跌。

The black line on this chart shows that the prices we actually paid at the pump.

這張圖表上的黑線顯示了我們在加油站實際支付的價格。

Over the three months our price dropped roughly the same 50% that Brent dropped, but just as it does at your local gas station it took a little longer for the new cheaper oil to wind its way through the supply side of the equation.

在這三個月裡，我們的價格下跌了大約與布倫特原油價格相同的50%，但正如您當地加油站的情況一樣，新的更便宜的石油需要更長的時間才能通過等式的供應方。

Another factor is that we don't instantly use the fuel that we take onboard.

另一個因素是我們不會立即使用船上攜帶的燃料。

We take it onboard but we use the inventory on a FIFO basis, which causes another slight lag of realizing the impact of rapid fuel price improvements.

我們將其帶上船，但我們以先進先出的方式使用庫存，這導致我們在認識到燃油價格快速上漲的影響方面略有滯後。

During quote normal times these lags are immaterial but when you have as precipitous a drop as we experienced at end of last year that delay makes a difference.

在正常報價期間，這些滯後並不重要，但當您遇到像我們去年年底經歷的那樣急劇下降時，延遲就會產生影響。

Looking into 2015 our guidance is based on today's price of fuel, and we continue our historical practice of remaining about 50% hedged.

展望 2015 年，我們的指導研究基於當今的燃油價格，我們繼續保持約 50% 對沖的歷史慣例。

This results in an improvement in our projected fuel bill by $0.59 a share.

這使得我們預計的燃油費用每股減少 0.59 美元。

But the other important factor impacting us is foreign exchange rates.

但影響我們的另一個重要因素是外匯匯率。

Increasingly we are a global company, and our greatest currency exposures today are to the pound, Canadian dollar, Brazilian real and Australian dollar in that order.

我們逐漸成為一家全球化公司，目前我們最大的貨幣敞口依序是英鎊、加幣、巴西雷亞爾和澳幣。

We have also shown on slide three how foreign exchange rates movements occurred during the same three month period.

我們也在第三張投影片中展示了同一三個月期間外匯匯率的變動。

This chart is the strength of the US dollar can compared to the weighted basket of our net currency exposure.

這張圖表顯示了美元的強弱與我們淨貨幣敞口的加權籃子的比較。

As you can see, over the last of three months, the dollar strengthened about 6%.

正如您所看到的，在過去三個月中，美元升值了約 6%。

Overall for 2015, the current strength of the dollar is about 9% stronger than the average was for 2014.

整體而言，2015 年美元目前的強勢程度比 2014 年的平均值強約 9%。

We have taken that differential into our projections.

我們已將這種差異納入我們的預測中。

The impact compared to where we were at the end of October is about $0.54 a share.

與 10 月底相比，影響約為每股 0.54 美元。

So the net result of those two factors is $0.59 from fuel offset by $0.54 hit on foreign exchange, a net benefit of about a nickel in 2015.

因此，這兩個因素的最終結果是燃料帶來的 0.59 美元，抵消了 0.54 美元的外匯損失，2015 年淨收益約為 5 美分。

Now on slide four, we also take a look at the longer term perspective of fuel and foreign exchange.

現在在第四張投影片上，我們也看一下燃料和外匯的長期前景。

This slide shows the price of Brent over a decade and the strength of the dollar over the same period.

這張投影片顯示了十年來布蘭特原油的價格以及同期美元的強勢。

I think the chart shows very nicely the historically inverse correlation between these two features.

我認為該圖表很好地顯示了這兩個特徵之間的歷史逆相關性。

And it helps explain why we believe that there is a natural offset in place.

這有助於解釋為什麼我們相信存在自然抵消。

With that, it is my pleasure to turn it back to Jason.

至此，我很高興將其轉回給傑森。

Hi, Jason.

嗨，傑森。

Thank you, Richard.

謝謝你，理查。

I will begin by taking you through the results for the fourth quarter.

我將首先向您介紹第四季度的結果。

Unless I state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency basis.

除非我另有說明，所有指標均以恆定貨幣為基礎。

We have summarized the fourth quarter results on slide five.

我們在第五張投影片上總結了第四季的業績。

For the quarter, we generated adjusted net income of $0.32 per share.

本季度，我們調整後每股淨利潤為 0.32 美元。

While there were several puts and takes from a business perspective, earnings would have been above the midpoint of our guidance if not for strengthening of the US dollar net of fuel, which cost us $0.07 for the quarter.

雖然從商業角度來看有一些看跌期權和賣出期權，但如果不是美元扣除燃料費用走強（本季度燃料成本為 0.07 美元），盈利將高於我們指導的中點。

Since the October 23 earnings call, the dollar versus our basket of currency has strengthened over 6% while fuel prices have dramatically declined.

自 10 月 23 日財報電話會議以來，美元兌一籃子貨幣已升值超過 6%，而燃油價格卻大幅下跌。

As we have discussed in the past, a change in currency impacts our P&L immediately, while there is typically a four to six week lag for a change in fuel prices.

正如我們過去所討論的，貨幣變化會立即影響我們的損益，而燃油價格的變化通常會有四到六週的滯後期。

Also, rapid changes in fuel prices within a period typically result in some ineffectiveness in our fuel swaps.

此外，一段時間內燃料價格的快速變化通常會導致我們的燃料互換效率低。

The net impact of these changes was $0.07 for the quarter.

這些變化對本季的淨影響為 0.07 美元。

Net revenue yields up 2.7% for the quarter which was lower than guidance due to a slowdown in close-in Caribbean demand and subsequent pricing reductions on non-holiday sailings.

本季淨收入收益率成長 2.7%，低於預期，原因是加勒比地區近期需求放緩以及隨後非假日航班價格下調。

This was somewhat offset by double-digit yield improvement on Europe, Latin America, and repositioning failing.

這在一定程度上被歐洲、拉丁美洲兩位數的殖利率改善和重新定位失敗所抵消。

We were able to offset the balance of the revenues miss through better costs including taxes and better performance from our equity investments.

我們能夠透過更好的成本（包括稅收）和更好的股權投資績效來抵消收入損失的平衡。

Onboard revenue was up 4.9%, which marks the twelfth quarter in a row of growth.

船上收入成長 4.9%，這是連續第十二個季度成長。

Strong performance on New Year's sailing and further demand for our beverage packages drove the year-over-year improvement.

新年航行的強勁表現以及對飲料套餐的進一步需求推動了同比增長。

Costs were better than guidance for the quarter with net cruise costs excluding fuel up 2.3%.

成本優於本季指導，不包括燃油的淨遊輪成本上漲 2.3%。

The improvement was mainly driven by a series of programs to reduce crew movement costs and further realize back office efficiency.

這項改善主要是由一系列旨在降低人員流動成本並進一步提高後台效率的計畫所推動的。

I will now discuss full-year results which we have summarized on slide six.

我現在將討論我們在第六張投影片中總結的全年業績。

For the year, we generated record earnings of $756 million in adjusted net income, a 40% year-over-year increase resulting in $3.39 per share.

今年，我們的調整後淨利潤達到創紀錄的 7.56 億美元，年增 40%，每股收益 3.39 美元。

As I mentioned during my remarks on the fourth quarter, we would have come in ahead of our guidance if not for the $0.07 impact of the strengthening of the US dollar net of fuel.

正如我在第四季度的演講中提到的，如果不是美元淨燃料走強帶來 0.07 美元的影響，我們的業績將會領先我們的指引。

Revenue yield increased 2.4% for the full year.

全年營收收益率成長 2.4%。

The story for the year has been very consistent.

今年的故事非常一致。

Double-digit yield improvements in Europe and China combined with another year of strong onboard revenue performance more than offset the weakness in the Caribbean.

歐洲和中國兩位數的殖利率提高，加上另一年強勁的船上營收表現，足以抵銷加勒比海地區的疲軟。

On the cost front, we executed on our commitment of keeping our costs flat to slightly down for the year.

在成本方面，我們履行了今年保持成本持平或略有下降的承諾。

Net cruise costs including fuels were down 0.6% year-over-year.

包括燃料在內的郵輪淨成本年減 0.6%。

Now, I would like to update you on what we are seeing in the demand environment.

現在，我想向您介紹我們在需求環境中所看到的最新情況。

I will start by taking you through first quarter trends.

我將首先向您介紹第一季的趨勢。

Caribbean capacity up 8% in the first quarter and will represent about 70% of our capacity.

第一季加勒比海地區的運能成長了 8%，約占我們運力的 70%。

Over the past few months, the Caribbean has required more than anticipated promotional assistance to stimulate closer-in demand.

在過去的幾個月裡，加勒比地區需要比預期更多的促銷援助來刺激更近的需求。

While Quantum has been booking exceptionally well, the short and seven-night Caribbean products have been challenging.

雖然昆騰的預訂情況非常好，但短途和七晚加勒比海產品一直充滿挑戰。

Increased capacity in our higher-yielding itineraries like Australia and Asia are helping offset yield declines in the Caribbean.

澳洲和亞洲等高收益航線運力的增加正在幫助抵消加勒比地區收益的下降。

Trends for the balance of the year have been far better than those in the first quarter, and our book load factors and APDs are nicely up versus same time last year for the Q2 through Q4 period.

今年餘下的趨勢遠好於第一季度，第二季至第四季的帳面負載率和 APD 均較去年同期大幅上升。

The strong trends have particularly been driven by the shift of capacity from the Caribbean to Europe, China and Australia.

這一強勁趨勢尤其受到產能從加勒比地區向歐洲、中國和澳洲的轉移的推動。

In addition, we are doing well across most itineraries on a like-for-like basis.

此外，我們在大多數行程中都表現良好。

Caribbean capacity for Q2 and beyond will be down 2% for our brand and approximately 4% for the industry.

第二季及以後，我們品牌的加勒比海運力將下降 2%，整個產業的運能將下降約 4%。

For the full year, bookings have exceeded prior year levels over the past three months cumulating in back-to-back record bookings during the last two weeks.

就全年而言，過去三個月的預訂量超過了去年的水平，過去兩週的預訂量連續創下歷史新高。

In fact, when we turned the year, we were in the best booked position in the Company's history.

事實上，當我們進入這一年時，我們處於公司歷史上最好的預訂位置。

While all other key itineraries are booked ahead of same time last year, our book load factor is furthest ahead for the Caribbean and European sailing.

儘管所有其他主要行程均提前於去年同期預訂，但我們的加勒比海和歐洲航線的訂座率卻遙遙領先。

Caribbean capacity is up slightly in 2015, driven by the addition of Quantum of the Seas in Q1 and the product will account for 44% of our overall capacity.

受第一季海洋量子號新增的推動，加勒比海地區的運能在 2015 年略有上升，該產品將占我們總運力的 44%。

Booking trends in Q2 and Q4 Caribbean sailings have been very good so far and as a result full year Caribbean load factors are not just higher than same time last year, they are also above levels seen in all other recent years at this point in time.

到目前為止，第二季和第四季加勒比海航線的預訂趨勢非常好，因此全年加勒比海航線的載客率不僅高於去年同期，也高於近年來所有其他時間點的水平。

Caribbean yields expected to be down mid-single digits for the first quarter and up low single digits for Q2 through Q4.

預計第一季加勒比海地區收益率將下降中個位數，第二季至第四季將上升低個位數。

We are slowly increasing capacity in Europe this summer with Anthem of the Seas and Allure of the Seas replacing smaller vessels on existing itineraries.

今年夏天，我們將緩慢增加在歐洲的運力，海洋聖歌號和海洋魅力號取代了現有航線上的小型船隻。

Our Europe capacity is up 5% versus 2014, but remains well below 2011, 2012 and 2013 levels.

我們的歐洲產能比 2014 年成長了 5%，但仍遠低於 2011 年、2012 年和 2013 年的水準。

Bookings over the past three months have more than kept pace with capacity gains, and their product is booked well ahead of last year in both rate and volume.

過去三個月的預訂量遠遠超過了運力增長的速度，其產品的預訂量無論是在價格還是數量上都遠遠領先於去年。

Recent demand has been particularly strong for North America and we are also booked well ahead from the UK.

最近北美的需求特別強勁，我們也從英國提前預訂了。

We are expecting yield improvements in the mid-single digit range for Europe this year.

我們預計今年歐洲的產量將實現中個位數的成長。

Our most significant capacity growth in 2015 is in the Asia Pacific region with the addition of Quantum of the Seas in China this summer.

2015 年我們最顯著的運能成長是在亞太地區，今年夏天海洋量子號在中國增設。

In total, our Asia Pacific capacity will increase by 33% and it will account for 15% of our total capacity.

總的來說，我們亞太地區的產能將增加33%，占我們總產能的15%。

Despite the fact that we have been increasing capacity in this region for the past five years, these products continue to generate superior yields.

儘管過去五年我們一直在增加該地區的產能，但這些產品仍繼續產生優異的產量。

Overall we expect to see yields up low to mid-single digit range for this product set.

總體而言，我們預計該產品系列的收益率將上升到低至中個位數範圍。

Taking all this into account, if you turn to slide seven, you will see our guidance for 2015.

考慮到所有這些，如果您翻到第七張投影片，您將看到我們 2015 年的指導。

In October we communicated that we expected our 2015 net yields to exceed 2014 levels.

10 月份，我們表示預計 2015 年的淨收益率將超過 2014 年的水準。

I'm pleased to share that we expect 2015 to be the seventh year in a row of yield improvement for the Company, with yield increasing 2.5% to 4.5% for the full year, with all key markets delivering positive yield.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們預計 2015 年將是公司收益率連續第七年提高，全年收益率將增長 2.5% 至 4.5%，所有主要市場都將實現正收益率。

I find it even more encouraging that once we lap the tough Q1 Caribbean environment yields are expected to be up approximately mid-single digits.

我發現更令人鼓舞的是，一旦我們度過了艱難的第一季加勒比海環境，產量預計將增長約中個位數。

Net cruise cots excluding fuel up 1% or better for the full year.

全年不包括燃油的淨遊輪床位成長 1% 或更高。

We remain committed to driving efficiencies throughout our business, investing strategically in technology enhancements and in growing markets like China that provide rapid returns while keeping us firmly on our path; the double-double target.

我們仍然致力於提高整個業務的效率，對技術增強和中國等不斷增長的市場進行戰略投資，這些市場可以提供快速回報，同時讓我們堅定不移地走下去；雙雙目標。

We have included an $806 million of fuel expense for the year and we are 52% hedged.

我們已計入了今年 8.06 億美元的燃料費用，並且我們進行了 52% 的對沖。

This is a reduction of $132 million since our last earnings call.

自從我們上次財報電話會議以來，這一數字減少了 1.32 億美元。

Net of our hedges, a 10% change in fuel price equates to approximately $25 million per year.

扣除我們的對沖後，燃料價格變動 10% 相當於每年約 2500 萬美元。

Based on current fuel prices, current currency exchange rates we expect another record-breaking year with earnings per share between $4.65 and $4.85.

根據當前燃油價格和當前貨幣匯率，我們預計今年每股收益將再次破紀錄，每股收益將在 4.65 美元至 4.85 美元之間。

The midpoint of this guidance represents a year-over-year increase of 40% on top of the over 40% growth we experienced in 2014.

該指引的中點表示，在 2014 年超過 40% 的成長基礎上，年增了 40%。

Before I move on to our guidance for Q1 2015, I would like to make you aware of one small change in the presentation that we are considering.

在我繼續討論 2015 年第一季的指導之前，我想讓您了解我們正在考慮的簡報中的一個小變化。

Historically Pullmantur results have been reported with a two-month lag.

從歷史上看，普爾曼圖爾的結果報告有兩個月的延遲。

As part of consolidating shared service functions for this brand, we are looking towards eliminating the two-month lag and recording Pullmantur's financials as we do for our other brands for the year ending December 31.

作為鞏固品牌共享服務功能的一部分，我們希望消除兩個月的滯後並記錄 Pullmantur 的財務數據，就像我們為其他品牌所做的截至 12 月 31 日的財務數據一樣。

We anticipate this change becoming effective in the second half of 2015.

我們預計這項變更將於 2015 年下半年生效。

If so, this would mean that Pullmantur would have two Novembers and two Decembers in 2015.

如果是這樣，這將意味著 Pullmantur 在 2015 年將有兩個 11 月和兩個 12 月。

For simplification and comparative purposes, this immaterial adjustment has been excluded from forward guidance for all key statistics while being excluded from adjusted metrics once the change is made.

出於簡化和比較的目的，這項無關緊要的調整已被排除在所有關鍵統計數據的前瞻性指導之外，同時在做出更改後也被排除在調整後的指標之外。

Now, I would like to walk you through the first quarter guidance on slide eight.

現在，我想向您介紹幻燈片第八頁的第一季指導。

Net yields expected to be down between 1.5% and 2% for the first quarter.

第一季淨收益率預計將下降 1.5% 至 2%。

As a reminder, we began pro-rating revenue and costs on all voyages starting in the third quarter of last year.

提醒一下，我們從去年第三季開始按比例評估所有航次的收入和成本。

As a result, a portion of high-yielding New Year's business that would have been entirely recognized in Q1 under the previous proration policy was recognized in Q4 of 2014, making the Q1 2015 comparable more difficult.

因此，按照先前的分配政策，本應在第一季完全確認的部分高收益新年業務在2014年第四季被確認，使得2015年第一季的可比性更加困難。

Yields would be slightly down if not for this change.

如果沒有這項變化，產量將會略有下降。

Net cruise costs excluding fuel expected to be up 2% to 3%, driven by higher spending on marketing during WAVE and investments in China associated with our growth strategy.

由於 WAVE 期間行銷支出增加以及與我們的成長策略相關的中國投資，淨郵輪成本（不包括燃料）預計將上漲 2% 至 3%。

We have also included $207 million of fuel expense for the quarter.

我們也計入了本季 2.07 億美元的燃料費用。

Taking all of this into account, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the quarter be in range of $0.10 to $0.15.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計本季調整後每股收益將在 0.10 美元至 0.15 美元之間。

With that, I will ask our operator to open up the call for a question and answer session.

這樣，我將要求我們的接線生打開電話進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Your first question is from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

你的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的費莉西亞·亨德里克斯。

Hi, good morning, thanks for taking my questions.

你好，早安，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Richard -- this question is for both Richard and Jason.

理查——這個問題是問理查和傑森的。

Richard, when you started with the prepared remarks and you were talking about double-double and your commitment there and how the company is still on plan and on track and, Jason, I believe you touched on that as well.

理查德，當你開始準備好的演講時，你談到了雙雙和你的承諾，以及公司如何仍在計劃和軌道上，傑森，我相信你也談到了這一點。

I'm just wondering now there is another kind of wrinkle in the double-double which is the FX, right?

我只是想知道現在雙雙中還有另一種皺紋，那就是 FX，對嗎？

So I'm just wondering if you could help us understand what happens to that plan or to your outlook if FX continues to pressure earnings?

因此，我只是想知道，如果外匯繼續對收益構成壓力，您是否可以幫助我們了解該計劃或您的前景會發生什麼情況？

Thanks, Felicia and good morning.

謝謝，費莉西亞，早安。

Yes, obviously FX has always been a factor, as has fuel.

是的，顯然外匯一直是個因素，燃料也是。

As we said the two have tended to offset each other although it is not perfect.

正如我們所說，兩者往往相互抵消，儘管並不完美。

But it is not a new factor.

但這並不是新因素。

We knew it was a factor when we entered into the double-double.

當我們進入兩雙的時候我們就知道這是一個因素。

It has been a little more dramatic, particularly when you look at the quarter.

情況有點戲劇化，尤其是當你看這個季度的時候。

But if you look over the time -- in fact, we have been raising projections and I will tell you that internally we are in a better position vis-a-vis the double-double today than six months ago when we first announced it.

但如果你回顧一下這段時間——事實上，我們一直在提高預測，我會告訴你，與六個月前我們首次宣布這一消息時相比，今天我們在內部相對於兩雙的情況處於更好的位置。

So nothing that has happened over the last six months or the last three months has been anything other than positive, and I think the two elements that really drive it or that will drive it are the yields.

因此，過去六個月或過去三個月發生的一切都是積極的，我認為真正推動它或將推動它的兩個因素是收益率。

And the yields are doing quite nicely.

而且收益率表現相當不錯。

We are guiding this year to 2.5% to 4.5% which is a pretty good increase on the cost and currency basis.

我們今年的目標是 2.5% 至 4.5%，這在成本和貨幣基礎上是一個相當不錯的成長。

And the first quarter is difficult but we always knew this first quarter would be difficult.

第一季很困難，但我們一直知道第一季會很困難。

Bookings once you get beyond the first quarter are really very powerful and so I'm -- I think my tone, certainly my tone when I was drafting my comments was that we were in a very good position and I'm quite comfortable particularly as we are looking forward.

一旦你過了第一季度，預訂量就真的非常強大，所以我認為我的語氣，當然是我在起草評論時的語氣是，我們處於一個非常好的位置，我很舒服，特別是我們期待。

The fourth quarter always looks a little awkward because it is always the most sensitive quarter to small changes and this first quarter we knew was going to be difficult.

第四季總是看起來有點尷尬，因為它總是對微小變化最敏感的季度，而我們知道第一季會很困難。

The other thing that we look at and one of the things that is very important is the WAVE period.

我們關注的另一件事也是非常重要的事情之一是 WAVE 週期。

So we've essentially had first month of WAVE and that is important both because of the absolute amount of bookings that we take during this WAVE period and during that first month.

因此，我們基本上已經度過了 WAVE 的第一個月，這一點很重要，因為我們在 WAVE 期間和第一個月期間接受的預訂絕對量很大。

But it is also important because of the tone it sets for the year.

但這也很重要，因為它為今年定下了基調。

And I would have been a heck of a lot more concerned if that tone had been negative.

如果那種語氣是消極的，我會更擔心。

Instead, the tone is very positive.

相反，語氣非常積極。

It is a very strong typical WAVE period which gives us encouragement that our yields are going to be there.

這是一個非常強勁的典型波浪時期，這讓我們感到鼓舞，因為我們的收益率將會在那裡。

And, yes, again, we could have another change in foreign exchange.

是的，我們再次可以在外匯方面進行另一次改變。

Last year we had a 9% weaker other outside currencies, 9% stronger dollar which is an extraordinary, it's probably one of the biggest changes we have seen in a long time and we are still reporting 40% increase in profitability.

去年，我們的其他外部貨幣貶值了 9%，美元升值了 9%，這是非同尋常的，這可能是我們長期以來看到的最大變化之一，我們仍然報告盈利能力增長了 40%。

So, we have always known it will be an issue.

所以，我們一直都知道這將是一個問題。

It will continue to result in dips up and down but it doesn't make me any less comfortable with the double-double.

它會繼續導致上下波動，但這並不會讓我對兩雙感到不舒服。

I think I'd better ask Jason to comment, to see his view on it.

我想我最好請傑森發表評論，看看他對此的看法。

I would concur with that.

我同意這一點。

As Richard commented, that relationship between currency and fuel has really held up over time and I think when we put the double-double program together we also realize that we need to also be able to play when it rains.

正如理查德所評論的那樣，貨幣和燃料之間的關係確實隨著時間的推移而保持不變，我認為當我們將雙雙計劃放在一起時，我們也意識到我們也需要能夠在下雨時進行比賽。

And there's always going to be puts and takes in the business, but by keeping that focus the business is driving towards that.

業務中總會有投入和投入，但透過保持這種專注，業務正在朝著這個方向發展。

Okay.

好的。

That is really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And then Jason just a quick question.

然後傑森問了一個簡單的問題。

You guys said earlier that you are 50% hedged.

你們之前說過你們有 50% 的對沖。

I'm just wondering would strategically where fuel prices are now, I know historically that has kind of been where you are, but given where fuel prices are now, why wouldn't you hedge more?

我只是想知道，從戰略上講，現在的燃油價格是多少，我知道從歷史上看，這就是你所處的位置，但考慮到現在的燃油價格，你為什麼不進行更多對沖呢？

It is for a few reasons, one of which is this relationship or the inverse relationship has been really strong over time and also the forward curves to actually lock in further out are quite steep because they are in Contango, and that's some of the reasons and the considerations as to why not hedge out more further out.

這是有幾個原因的，其中之一是這種關係或反向關係隨著時間的推移非常強烈，而且實際鎖定的遠期曲線非常陡峭，因為它們處於期貨溢價中，這是一些原因和關於為什麼不進一步對沖的考慮。

Okay.

好的。

Clear and helpful.

清晰且有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Steve Wieczynski 和 Stifel。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning guys.

早上好傢伙。

Jason, you did a good job of breaking down some of the markets, specifically the Caribbean and Europe.

傑森，你在細分一些市場方面做得很好，特別是加勒比海和歐洲。

But when you look at your yield increase this year of, what you're saying, 2.5% to 4.5%, can you maybe a little more detail of maybe some of the other markets in terms of what you are expecting from a yield perspective?

但是，當你看看今年的收益率成長時，你所說的 2.5％ 至 4.5％，你能否從收益率角度更詳細地了解其他一些市場的情況？

And then also, maybe how you guys are thinking about onboard as well.

另外，也許你們在船上的想法也是如此。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Maybe to start off on the onboard side.

也許從船上開始。

Obviously, the entry of Quantum and Anthem or having a full year of Quantum and Anthem are really good news stories for the onboard side as well as Quantum going into Asia which as we've talked about in the past indexed them a little bit higher than the average for the onboard side.

顯然，Quantum 和 Anthem 的進入或 Quantum 和 Anthem 的全年運營對於船上方面以及 Quantum 進入亞洲來說確實是個好消息，正如我們過去討論過的那樣，它們的指數略高於船上一側的平均值。

Also the investments we've made on a technology standpoint with, as we commented in the past, with our -- the increase in the bandwidth whether it's O3b or Harris CapRock, has really also further engaged the consumer to spend for internet packaging.

此外，正如我們過去所評論的那樣，我們在技術角度進行的投資，無論是 O3b 還是 Harris CapRock，頻寬的增加，實際上也進一步吸引了消費者為網路包裝付費。

So to kind of give you maybe more color on some other products.

因此，也許可以為其他一些產品提供更多色彩。

We are expecting Alaska to be up nicely.

我們期待阿拉斯加的表現良好。

It is in a good book position and the pricing is doing quite well.

它的預訂位置很好，而且定價也很好。

Also I would say on the Australia side, obviously there is a lot more capacity that is going into Australia which is in my comments around the Asia Pacific and there will be some stress on yields but we would do expect it to be positive.

我還要說，在澳大利亞方面，顯然有更多的產能進入澳大利亞，這在我對亞太地區的評論中是這樣的，收益率將會受到一些壓力，但我們確實預計它會是積極的。

Steve, one other thing I might add, you asked about onboard revenue and we talked before about the fact that we are doing more integration between onboard and ticket revenue as we evolve the sophistication of our revenue management systems.

史蒂夫，我要補充的另一件事是，您詢問了機上收入，我們之前談到過這樣一個事實：隨著我們發展收入管理系統的複雜性，我們正在機上和機票收入之間進行更多整合。

One of the things you have seen is that we are doing more and more with value-added versus discounts.

您看到的一件事是，我們越來越多地利用增值而不是折扣。

We really feel that the consumer prefers that.

我們確實覺得消費者比較喜歡這樣。

That it works out better for the travel agents and by combining that, I think a perfect example to put it in tangible terms would be Celebrity's program last year of the 123Go program.

它對旅行社來說效果更好，透過結合起來，我認為將其具體化的一個完美例子是去年 123Go 計劃中的 Celebrity 計劃。

Very successful program.

非常成功的計劃。

So instead of offering a discount, we say we will bundle in a drinks package or an onboard credit or prepaid gratuities or whatever it was that you wanted to choose.

因此，我們不會提供折扣，而是捆綁飲料套餐、船上積分、預付小費或您想要選擇的任何東西。

And I think those kinds of value-added packages are proving from the market point of view to be very popular with the consumer.

我認為從市場的角度來看，這些增值套餐非常受消費者歡迎。

Again, as I say, it is popular with the travel agent because it effectively increases their commission because it bundles more into what is commissionable.

正如我所說，它很受旅行社歡迎，因為它有效地增加了他們的佣金，因為它捆綁了更多佣金。

And it means that instead of touting ourselves on price, we tout ourselves on what we are offering.

這意味著我們不再以價格來宣傳自己，而是以我們所提供的產品來宣傳自己。

And we are -- we think that the market is ready for, and we are very much focused on trying to upgrade ourselves, the image and do less price-fighting and more this is why you are better on this kind of a cruise.

我們認為市場已經準備好了，我們非常專注於努力提升自己、形象，減少價格戰，這就是為什麼你在這種郵輪上會做得更好。

So I do think that one of the implications of that mathematically is to the extent that there is more is more bundling that that actually could have a little bit reduction in onboard revenue.

因此，我確實認為，從數學角度來看，這種情況的影響之一是，更多的捆綁實際上可能會稍微減少船上收入。

But the other thing is we have also gotten so much better at what we are offering some of the things Jason talked about.

但另一件事是，我們在提供傑森談到的一些東西方面也取得了很大的進步。

So we are looking for positive momentum on both sides.

因此，我們正在尋找雙方的積極勢頭。

Steve, this is Michael.

史蒂夫，這是麥可。

We have also invested quite significantly over the past few years on upgrading and revitalization, the addition of specialty restaurants and changing out much of our retail offering and changing out our spa offering et cetera, et cetera.

在過去的幾年裡，我們還在升級和振興、增加特色餐廳、改變我們的大部分零售產品和改變我們的水療產品等方面投入了大量資金。

I think we are seeing a nice uplift from the investments that we have made over the past few years in terms of the actual onboard revenue options that we have onboard our ships.

我認為，就我們船上的實際船上收入選擇而言，過去幾年我們所做的投資取得了很大的進步。

Got you.

明白你了。

Second question is a bigger picture question more so for Adam.

第二個問題是一個更大的問題，對亞當來說更是如此。

But Adam, I know when you became COO a couple months ago, back in April one of the areas that you were focused on were these shared services between the brands and how could you improve those.

但 Adam，我知道當你幾個月前成為營運長時，早在 4 月份，你關注的領域之一就是品牌之間的共享服務以及如何改善這些服務。

Could you maybe give us an update on your progress to date there and maybe what kind of opportunities or synergies you are seeing as you kind of move forward?

您能否向我們介紹一下您迄今為止的進展情況，以及您在前進過程中看到了什麼樣的機會或協同效應？

I guess we heard a little bit this morning with the Pullmantur announcement.

我想我們今天早上聽到了普爾曼圖爾的公告。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, one of the key elements, of course, is to work with the brands and their organizations to ensure that we can deliver against our cost commitments over time as we pursue our double-double goals.

當然，關鍵要素之一是與品牌及其組織合作，以確保我們在追求雙雙目標的過程中能夠隨著時間的推移兌現我們的成本承諾。

But another crucial element is to enable our global aspirations to activate the global footprint through superior approaches to human resources, to information technology, to the supply chain, and these areas are all progressing with a great determination.

但另一個關鍵因素是透過對人力資源、資訊科技、供應鏈採取卓越的方法來實現我們的全球願望，激活全球足跡，而這些領域都在以堅定的決心取得進展。

Our involvement with China has taken our shared services to a new and different level from anything that we have seen before.

我們與中國的合作將我們的共享服務提升到了一個前所未有的新水平。

While we have been expanding our global footprint for many, many, many years, that was almost entirely on a sales and marketing aspect.

雖然我們多年來一直在擴大我們的全球足跡，但這幾乎完全是在銷售和行銷方面。

Whereas now we have got operations involved and the supply chain is in China and everywhere around the world.

而現在我們已經介入運營，供應鏈在中國以及世界各地。

So the principal payoff of the shared services environment you will see in the yield projections and the yield deliverables and in the cost projections and in the cost deliverables.

因此，您將在產量預測和產量可交付成果以及成本預測和成本可交付成果中看到共享服務環境的主要回報。

And there is no question that we have momentum in these areas and the shared services groups are being challenged and given opportunities in ways that they haven't seen before, and we are trying to be very concrete in terms of the service level agreements and the KPIs that the shared services owe to the respective brands.

毫無疑問，我們在這些領域有動力，共享服務團體正在受到挑戰，並以他們以前從未見過的方式獲得機會，我們正在努力在服務水平協議和服務方面變得非常具體。各品牌的KPI。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for the color, guys.

謝謝你們的顏色。

You next question comes from line of Greg Badishkanian with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Greg Badishkanian。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I just wanted to talk a little bit or ask some questions on that you mentioned the last few weeks in January that WAVE has been solid.

我只是想談談或問一些問題，你在一月份的最後幾週提到 WAVE 一直很穩定。

I mean that is really encouraging but I just wanted to get a little bit more color.

我的意思是，這確實令人鼓舞，但我只是想獲得更多的色彩。

Is that primarily the booking volumes, pricing?

主要是預訂量、定價嗎？

Also do any regions stand out?

還有哪些地區表現突出？

And I'm assuming that was an acceleration from the trend that you saw towards the end of the 2014, correct?

我假設這與您在 2014 年底看到的趨勢相比有所加速，對嗎？

Hi, Greg, this is Michael.

嗨，格雷格，我是麥可。

I think we have been pleased with what we have seen over the past couple of weeks.

我認為我們對過去幾週所看到的情況感到滿意。

The WAVE has been quite strong for us.

WAVE 對我們來說非常強大。

We're seeing certainly strength in Q2, Q3, Q4.

我們在第二季、第三季、第四季看到了肯定的實力。

We're also seeing very good volume coming into Q1.

我們也看到第一季的銷量非常好。

I think we had mentioned earlier with the capacity increases in the Caribbean in Q1 it was quite a promotional environment.

我想我們之前已經提到過，隨著第一季加勒比地區運力的增加，這是一個相當好的促銷環境。

But the promotions and the pricing stimulation that we put into the market seems to be generating very good volume.

但我們投入市場的促銷和定價刺激似乎產生了非常好的銷售。

So that is, I think that is a positive sign.

所以，我認為這是一個積極的信號。

When you look at the different markets' performance globally, certainly the North American market seems to be in good shape for us.

當你觀察全球不同市場的表現時，北美市場對我們來說似乎狀況良好。

Europe, we saw a slight little blip after the events in Paris a couple of weeks ago which for a few days we saw things slow down and then about four or five days later everything started to come back quite nicely.

歐洲，幾週前巴黎事件發生後，我們看到了一些輕微的波動，有幾天我們看到事情進展緩慢，然後大約四、五天后，一切開始恢復得很好。

So our European business seems to be in good shape.

所以我們的歐洲業務似乎狀況良好。

And that is also I think as we have mentioned previously in Asia Pacific, Australia, and China we are feeling good about what we are seeing particularly out of the Chinese market with the addition of Quantum into China.

我認為，正如我們之前在亞太地區、澳洲和中國所提到的那樣，隨著量子進入中國，我們對特別是在中國市場看到的情況感到滿意。

So, overall the WAVE has been good.

所以，總的來說，WAVE 是好的。

And you would say that is that a good indicator for the next few months or historically?

您會說這是未來幾個月或歷史上的一個很好的指標嗎？

How would you, how should we think about that as a future indictor for 2015?

作為 2015 年的未來指標，您、我們該如何看待它？

I think as Richard had mentioned -- both Richard and Jason, when we came into 2015, we were in a particularly strong booked position.

我認為正如理查德所提到的——理查德和傑森，當我們進入 2015 年時，我們的預訂情況特別好。

I think we were in the best booked position that he would have ever been in.

我認為我們處於他曾經處於的最佳預定位置。

So really, we are riding off a good book position and that bodes well for really getting into an even stronger book position by quarter for each quarter across all of our markets.

因此，實際上，我們正​​在擺脫良好的帳面狀況，這預示著我們所有市場的每個季度的帳面狀況都將真正達到更強勁的水平。

And that of course means we are probably not going to be subject to the kind of discounting that we have seen previously because we will be in a much stronger state for our company.

當然，這意味著我們可能不會受到以前看到的那種折扣的影響，因為我們公司將處於更強大的狀態。

And just finally WAVE for Europe does that start sort of mid-February?

最後，歐洲的 WAVE 會在二月中旬開始嗎？

When do you start seeing the acceleration in bookings for that market?

您什麼時候開始看到該市場的預訂量加速成長？

Well, the UK market is pretty much similar to the US market in terms of the WAVE and out of the northern European markets it is very similar to the American WAVE.

就 WAVE 而言，英國市場與美國市場非常相似，而北歐市場則與美國 WAVE 非常相似。

We see a little later out of the southern European markets and we typically see things strengthen now as we get into the beginning of the second quarter.

我們看到南歐市場的情況會稍晚一些，隨著進入第二季度初，我們通常會看到情況有所加強。

But what we are seeing is good.

但我們看到的是好的。

Particularly out of the UK market it has been very good.

特別是在英國市場之外，情況非常好。

Okay.

好的。

Greg, since you asked about Europe and to add to Michael's comments, we had an extraordinary 2014 in Europe.

Greg，既然您詢問了歐洲的情況並補充了 Michael 的評論，我們在歐洲度過了非凡的 2014 年。

A little bit frankly of a corollary to the malaise in the Caribbean and for many of the same reasons, there was so much capacity that moved from the Caribbean to Europe and it was an extraordinary year.

坦白說，這是加勒比地區萎靡不振的必然結果，出於許多相同的原因，有如此多的產能從加勒比地區轉移到歐洲，這是不平凡的一年。

So we were a little bit euphoric about that.

所以我們對此感到有點欣喜。

This year, it is a much more balanced view but if we hadn't had 2014, we would be singing the praises of Europe.

今年，這是一個更平衡的觀點，但如果我們沒有2014年，我們就會為歐洲唱讚歌。

It is strong.

它很強大。

It is doing well.

它做得很好。

It is not euphoric like last year was but it is strong, it's doing well for us, and I think that is part of what is giving us a good feeling for 2015.

它不像去年那樣令人欣喜，但它很強勁，對我們來說表現良好，我認為這是為我們 2015 年帶來良好感覺的部分原因。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的 Tim Conder。

Thank you.

謝謝。

A couple of questions here, staying on the European question theme first.

這裡有幾個問題，首先停留在歐洲問題主題。

Can you just give us a framework of how many of your European itineraries, what percent was filled with European-sourced guests versus North Americans in 2014 and then do you see that changing much for 2015 at this point?

您能否給我們一個框架，說明 2014 年您的歐洲行程有多少，歐洲客人與北美客人的比例分別是多少，然後您認為 2015 年這一點上有多大變化嗎？

And then on the currency side, Jason, just maybe refresh us, you gave us the four major currencies of where your exposure is.

然後在貨幣方面，傑森，也許讓我們耳目一新，您向我們提供了您的風險敞口的四種主要貨幣。

How much is your net exposure in each of those currencies?

您對每種貨幣的淨敞口是多少？

And then have you hedged anything either related to your operational exposure or in particular the Euro, where you get paid from TUI?

然後，您是否對沖了與您的營運風險相關的任何風險，特別是與您從 TUI 獲得報酬的歐元相關的風險？

And then I have one additional question after that.

之後我還有一個問題。

Okay, Tim, thank you.

好的，提姆，謝謝你。

Just to start off in terms of the mix on Europe.

首先從歐洲的組合開始。

Typically about two-thirds of our guests on European cruising, European cruises come from Europe and a third from the rest of the world, mainly North America.

通常，歐洲遊輪上大約三分之二的客人來自歐洲，三分之一來自世界其他地區，主要是北美。

That tends to vary a little bit based off of demand patterns because the European product is probably the most leveraged on our global sourcing model because it is in such demand in so many different markets.

這往往會根據需求模式而略有不同，因為歐洲產品可能是我們全球採購模式中利用最多的產品，因為它在許多不同的市場都有如此大的需求。

So that percentage amount can change here and there.

因此該百分比金額可能隨時會變更。

As it relates to currency, we do provide kind of in order how those currencies impact us and it does tend to change by quarter.

由於它與貨幣有關，我們確實提供了這些貨幣如何影響我們的順序，而且它確實往往會按季度變化。

We are actually going to publish for you guys, by quarter, the order of the impact of those currencies but we will not be getting into what the net amount would be.

實際上，我們將按季度為大家發布這些貨幣的影響順序，但我們不會透露淨金額是多少。

And on the hedging perspective, like we've said with fuel and which Richard pointed out on the slides, that natural relationship in our view still holds and so we don't really do any operational hedging.

從對沖的角度來看，就像我們在燃料方面所說的以及理查德在幻燈片上指出的那樣，我們認為這種自然關係仍然存在，因此我們實際上並沒有進行任何操作性對沖。

We do do hedging currency-wise for our new building specifically.

我們確實專門為我們的新大樓進行了貨幣對沖。

And then just to the other piece of that, your currency guidance factors in what you receive from TUI on the equity income line?

另一方面，您的貨幣指導因素是否考慮了您從 TUI 獲得的股權收益線收入？

Yes, that's part of our net exposures.

是的，這是我們淨敞口的一部分。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then my other question as it relates to maybe Michael and the changes in responsibilities there.

然後是我的另一個問題，因為它可能與邁克爾以及那裡的職責變化有關。

Clearly built on the successes at Celebrity and now coming to Royal and knowing that the prior Royal bosses that remains is now his boss, too.

顯然是建立在名人的成功之上，現在來到皇家，並且知道留下來的前皇家老闆現在也是他的老闆。

What do you see going forward there, Michael, as far as opportunities in the Royal brand?

邁克爾，您對皇家品牌的未來有何看法？

I have to say that my former -- the former CEO, acting CEO of Royal did a really good job.

我必須說，我的前任——皇家的前執行長、代理執行長做得非常好。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

That's very politically correct of you.

你這話政治正確。

And I must commend him for getting everything so well prepared for me.

我必須讚揚他為我做好了一切準備。

So I have kind of come back to Royal but I had come from Royal, so I'm very familiar with the brand.

所以我有點回到皇家，但我來自皇家，所以我對這個品牌非常熟悉。

I feel quite fortunate.

我覺得自己很幸運。

It is genuinely an outstanding brand.

這確實是一個傑出的品牌。

We have really high brand awareness.

我們有非常高的品牌知名度。

We have a strong global infrastructure.

我們擁有強大的全球基礎設施。

We have winning teams in China and internationally and domestically.

我們在中國、國際和國內都有獲勝的團隊。

We truly have innovative hardware.

我們確實擁有創新的硬體。

We have got Quantum-class and Oasis-class coming online in the next few years.

我們將在未來幾年內推出量子級和綠洲級。

We have very passionate loyal guests who genuinely love the brand.

我們擁有非常熱情的忠實客人，他們真正熱愛這個品牌。

We have huge bench strength with our shipboard and shore-side employees and probably most importantly we have very loyal and long-term travel partners who have stayed with us through the course of all of these years and who we have a wonderful relationship with.

我們的船上和岸上員工擁有強大的後備力量，也許最重要的是，我們擁有非常忠誠和長期的旅行合作夥伴，這些年來他們一直與我們在一起，並與我們保持著良好的關係。

So, I'm very fortunate.

所以，我非常幸運。

I'm spending obviously a lot of time developing the forward strategy for the brand and obviously my key focus is leveraging the power of this brand to drive performance forward and that is really my focus.

顯然，我花了很多時間來制定該品牌的前瞻性策略，顯然我的重點是利用這個品牌的力量來推動業績向前發展，這確實是我的重點。

That is where I am and it is a great joy to be back at Royal and to be leading the Royal brand team.

這就是我所在的位置，我很高興回到皇家並領導皇家品牌團隊。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Kent with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂文·肯特。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

A couple questions for you.

有幾個問題想問你。

Can you just talk a little bit more broadly about your strategy on China, especially in the light of a couple of announcements they have made, even just some this week and what your initiatives are to target that consumer?

您能否更廣泛地談談您對中國的策略，特別是考慮到他們發布的幾項公告（甚至只是本週的一些公告）以及您針對該消費者的舉措？

And then the second thing, and this is, I know, a very near-term issue but given what seems to be the strengthening of the US consumer, the decline in close-in bookings in the fourth quarter seemed counterintuitive.

然後是第二件事，我知道，這是一個非常近期的問題，但考慮到美國消費者似乎在走強，第四季近距離預訂量的下降似乎違反直覺。

And I just wanted to understand how that plays out.

我只是想了解這是如何發生的。

It would seem like as the US consumer strengthens they would be willing to book further in advance and also pay up as they get closer-in to the booking.

隨著美國消費者的增強，他們似乎願意提前進一步預訂，並在預訂臨近時付款。

So I'm trying to understand that balance but also want to understand the longer term issue which could be a big opportunity for you in China and how you are looking at it versus your competitors?

因此，我試圖了解這種平衡，但也想了解長期問題，這對您在中國可能是一個巨大的機會，以及與您的競爭對手相比，您如何看待它？

I will start but I think Adam or Michael may want to chime in on China; Jason on the strengthening of the US.

我將開始，但我認為亞當或邁克爾可能想插話中國；傑森談美國的加強。

Although I would emphasize, we will have ups and downs in any given quarter and I think that is a point we really -- I almost emphasize that, Steve, on every call.

儘管我想強調，我們在任何特定季度都會有起起落落，我認為這是我們真正的一點——史蒂夫，我幾乎在每次電話會議上都強調這一點。

It is remarkable to me that we are, we have been as accurate as we have been.

對我來說，值得注意的是，我們一直如此準確。

And I think we may have spoiled ourselves by always seeming to meet those but the degree of accuracy can't be that great.

我認為我們可能因為總是滿足這些要求而寵壞了自己，但準確程度不可能那麼好。

I mean this year our initial forecast for the year was a midpoint of 2.5% constant currency yield improvement.

我的意思是，今年我們對今年的初步預測是貨幣收益率持續改善 2.5% 的中點。

We ended the year with 2.4%.

年底我們的成長率為 2.4%。

It is just hard for me to imagine us being able to maintain that kind of accuracy on an ongoing basis.

我很難想像我們能夠持續保持這種準確性。

But I will let the others comment more specifically on the strengthening of the US because I think you have put your finger on something that is very important.

但我會讓其他人更具體地評論美國的增強，因為我認為你們已經指出了一些非常重要的事情。

Our strategy for China is really very clear.

我們對中國的戰略確實非常明確。

We want to be synonymous with cruising in China.

我們希望成為中國郵輪的代名詞。

We want to have the strongest product that we know how to do.

我們希望擁有我們知道如何做的最強大的產品。

The Chinese consumer are clearly loving the Royal Caribbean product there.

中國消費者顯然很喜歡皇家加勒比的產品。

And in China brand is very important, so we are investing heavily both in terms of management and in terms of hardware.

在中國品牌非常重要，所以我們在管理和硬體方面都進行了大量投資。

And ensuring that we are continually strengthening the perception of our brand and educating the Chinese consumer.

並確保我們不斷加強我們的品牌認知度並教育中國消費者。

Because the -- it is still such an embryonic industry there.

因為它仍然是一個處於萌芽狀態的行業。

Most consumers don't know about it and they don't have the same kind of infrastructure with travel agents and others that we have in the United States.

大多數消費者並不了解這一點，他們也沒有與美國旅行社和其他機構相同的基礎設施。

So we are working hard to expand that.

因此，我們正在努力擴大這一範圍。

We have been growing at an extraordinary rate.

我們一直在以驚人的速度成長。

We grew last year at 45%.

去年我們的成長率為 45%。

We will grow next year at 66%.

明年我們的成長率將達到 66%。

And we think this is a market that our product is well suited for, and where the market itself is growing.

我們認為我們的產品非常適合這個市場，而且市場本身正在成長。

The middle class in China is growing at such a fast rate that it won't be long that there are more people in the middle class in China than there are people in the United States.

中國中產階級的成長速度如此之快，用不了多久，中國的中產階級人數將超過美國。

So it's a great potential for us and we are working to address that, both through the Royal Caribbean International brand but also through our partnership with Ctrip, a very aggressive, dynamic, and frankly inspiring company that is very strong in the travel industry in China.

因此，這對我們來說是一個巨大的潛力，我們正在努力解決這個問題，不僅透過皇家加勒比國際品牌，而且透過我們與攜程的合作，攜程是一家非常進取、充滿活力、坦率地鼓舞人心的公司，在中國旅遊業中非常強大。

So we intend to continue to push that.

所以我們打算繼續推動這一點。

I think there is room for others.

我認為其他人還有空間。

I'm not going to comment on what others do, but I think frankly, it is a good thing to see that the overall industry is growing and that there is it that much interest in others.

我不會評論其他人所做的事情，但坦白說，看到整個行業正在增長並且對其他人有如此大的興趣，這是一件好事。

Because, as I say, part of the issue here is we need to work to make cruising a relevant vacation there and so we are -- we have some of the same problems we faced in the United States 20 years ago in terms of educating the consumer of all that cruising has to offer.

因為，正如我所說，這裡的部分問題是我們需要努力使巡航成為一個相關的假期，所以我們——我們在教育遊客方面面臨著 20 年前在美國面臨的一些相同問題。的消費者。

We intend to continue to do that.

我們打算繼續這樣做。

And Steve, just talking about the kind of the counter intuitiveness with the US consumer getting stronger relative to what happened in Q4 and also our thoughts on Q1.

史蒂夫，只是談論美國消費者相對於第四季發生的情況變得更強的反直覺，以及我們對第一季的想法。

I think going into our last call we were seeing that the strength in the US consumer on ticket as well as on the onboard side.

我認為，在我們上次的電話會議中，我們看到了美國消費者在機票和機上的實力。

The onboard piece continued on obviously as our onboard performance was quite good.

船上的部分顯然仍在繼續，因為我們的船上表現相當不錯。

But the reality is that we don't operate in a vacuum and so I think some of the competitive forces and the level of supply that was out there caused the environment to be more promotional than we had thought.

但現實是，我們並不是在真空中運作，所以我認為一些競爭力量和供應水平導致環境比我們想像的更具促銷性。

Outside of the holiday sailings which actually we saw quite a bit of strength from the US consumer.

除了假期航行之外，實際上我們看到了美國消費者的相當大的實力。

Steve, just -- this is Michael.

史蒂夫，只是——這是邁克爾。

Just to add to that, I think one of the things that certainly we saw last year for example summer Europe where we really saw strong demand out of the US market with fairly high price points.

除此之外，我認為我們去年肯定看到的事情之一，例如夏季歐洲，我們確實看到美國市場的強勁需求和相當高的價格點。

I think that speaks about the growing affluence in the American market, that we're seeing more and more Americans wanting to travel further, and willing to pay a higher price to do that.

我認為這說明了美國市場日益富裕，我們看到越來越多的美國人想要去更遠的地方旅行，並願意為此付出更高的代價。

And I think that's quite reflective of how we see part of the emerging opportunity in the US market with regards to the growth of affluence in the US.

我認為這充分反映了我們如何看待美國市場中與美國富裕程度成長相關的部分新興機會。

And then just a quick comment on China.

然後簡單評論一下中國。

China is really one of those ultimate opportunities.

中國確實是這些終極機會之一。

There is an infinite possibility because the entire market really is a new to cruise market and therefore our brand as we have been in the Chinese market for several years and the recipient each year of the top cruise line in China, I think we are really well positioned in terms of the opportunity that we see.

有無限的可能性，因為整個市場對於郵輪市場來說確實是一個新的市場，因此我們的品牌，因為我們已經進入中國市場好幾年了，而且每年都是中國頂級郵輪公司的獲獎者，我認為我們真的很好根據我們看到的機會進行定位。

Just to confirm Richard's perspective that competition is always good in a market anyways.

只是為了證實理查德的觀點，無論如何，市場上的競爭總是好的。

So I think we welcome the competition.

所以我認為我們歡迎競爭。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, due to the time constraints for the rest of the questions please remain for one question per person.

女士們、先生們，由於其餘問題的時間有限，請每人保留一個問題。

The next question from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利 (Robin Farley)。

Great, thanks.

萬分感謝。

I know you talked about how the percent of Europeans and North Americans on a European cruise can change from year to year.

我知道您談到了乘坐歐洲遊輪的歐洲人和北美人的比例每年都會改變。

But do you anticipate just there were concerns out there about the European economy, that the demand from Europe -- and it sounds like it is still early for kind of southern European WAVE.

但你是否預期人們會對歐洲經濟、歐洲的需求感到擔憂——聽起來南歐浪潮還為時過早。

But are you kind of anticipating maybe you will have to shift some more sourcing, shift kind of more of your inventory to be sold to North American passengers versus last year.

但你是否預計，與去年相比，你可能需要轉移更多的採購、轉移更多的庫存來出售給北美乘客。

And then even though I know it's just keep it to one, my other one is really quick which is how much did the holiday shift in the calendar add to Q4 yields?

然後，儘管我知道它只是保持在其中一個，但我的另一個速度非常快，即日曆中的假期變化對第四季度的收益率增加了多少？

You mentioned what it took out of Q1.

您提到了第一季的成果。

I just want to think about what it added to Q4.

我只想想想它在第四季度添加了什麼。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Robin, it's Jason.

羅賓，是傑森。

On the European side, I think that watching what is happening in that market there is always going to be puts and takes but we really did enter the year in a very strong book position for our European sailing and especially with that [is going to be coming] from North America and the UK.

在歐洲方面，我認為觀察該市場正在發生的事情總是會出現看跌期權和賣出期權，但我們確實以非常強勁的賬面狀況進入了今年的歐洲航行，尤其是[將是]來自北美和英國。

So there might be some shift in the sourcing but current booking patterns post year end have been actually quite good recently on the European sailings.

因此，採購方面可能會發生一些變化，但目前歐洲航線近期的年底後預訂模式實際上相當不錯。

And again having that strong book position will limit the need for us to modify sourcing too much as well as to have to take any tactical pricing actions.

再一次，擁有強大的帳面地位將限制我們過度修改採購以及採取任何戰術性定價行動的需要。

As it relates to the -- as we had indicated on the last call, the impact on yields as it relates to proration is really immaterial.

正如我們在上次電話會議中所指出的那樣，與比例分配相關的對收益率的影響實際上並不重要。

It is a basis point or two.

這是一個或兩個基點。

But we can, after the call we can get that to you in more detail.

但我們可以，在通話後我們可以向您提供更詳細的資訊。

But Robin, I think one of the questions is just the shifting which has no impact on the year as a whole but when you do look at the first quarter it is -- it has a slightly unfortunate thing because last year's first quarter had all of the holiday sailings.

但是羅賓，我認為其中一個問題只是變化，這對整個一年沒有影響，但當你看第一季度時，它是 - 它有一個有點不幸的事情，因為去年第一季度所有的假期航行。

And last year, that is the holiday sailings of 2013 were terrific.

去年，也就是 2013 年的假期航行非常棒。

And so almost all the deterioration this year is because 2013 has the holiday sailings and 2014 didn't.

因此，今年幾乎所有的惡化都是因為 2013 年有假日航行，而 2014 年沒有。

Assuming that 2015's holiday sailings continue to be positive, we simply make it up in the fourth quarter.

假設2015年的假日航程持續保持樂觀，我們只需在第四季彌補這一點即可。

And frankly that is probably the right thing to have done anyhow.

坦白說，無論如何，這可能是正確的做法。

Yes, when you look again at the quarter most of the deterioration in the first quarter is simply because of this.

是的，當你再次審視這個季度時，第一季的大部分惡化就是因為這個。

I guess that is what I -- then I don't know if I understood Jason's comment because it looked like in the release you were saying that the holiday shift was really most of that 1.5 to 2 points decline in Q1 and maybe would have been closer to flat.

我想這就是我——然後我不知道我是否理解傑森的評論，因為看起來你在新聞稿中說假期班次實際上是第一季 1.5 到 2 個百分點下降的大部分，也許本來就是更接近平坦。

You are exactly right.

你是完全正確的。

That is right.

沒錯。

If it added -- I'm sorry, if it took 150 to 200 basis points out of Q1 how would it have only have added one or two to Q4?

如果它增加了——抱歉，如果第一季增加了 150 到 200 個基點，那它怎麼會只在第四季增加一兩個基點呢？

Is that because of the year over year.

是不是因為年復一年的原因。

No, I think what he was saying is the overall year the impact was immaterial.

不，我認為他所說的是全年影響並不重大。

It just shifted some of the benefit.

它只是轉移了一些好處。

So instead of having a better first quarter we have a better fourth quarter.

因此，我們沒有更好的第一季度，而是有更好的第四季度。

But the year as a whole it's negligible.

但從全年來看，這數字可以忽略不計。

Right.

正確的。

No.

不。

Great.

偉大的。

I totally understood that it's not a meaningful thing.

我完全明白這不是一件有意義的事。

I'm just kind of looking at Q4 results reported today and just wondering what in there was helped by the holiday shift.

我只是看看今天報告的第四季度業績，只是想知道假期班次對其中有什麼幫助。

Maybe I can follow up after.

也許我可以跟進。

We can get that to you after, Robin.

羅賓，我們稍後可以給你。

And also, it was always -- it was always contemplated in our guidance.

而且，我們的指導始終都在考慮這一點。

Yes, understood.

是的，明白了。

And that was great color on the capacity.

這對容量來說是很棒的顏色。

Probably not having to shift where you are targeting too, that was helpful.

可能也不必轉移您的目標位置，這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Robin.

謝謝，羅賓。

The next question from the line of Harry Curtis with Nomura.

下一個問題來自野村證券的哈利柯蒂斯。

Hi.

你好。

Just get your perspective on if there has been incremental weakness in the demand from European customers reflected in your bookings into the US in the second, third and fourth quarters given the strength of the dollar?

鑑於美元走強，您認為第二、第三和第四季歐洲客戶的需求是否逐漸疲軟，這反映在您第二、第三和第四季飛往美國的預訂中？

Hi Harry.

嗨哈利。

We haven't seen, as Michael mentioned, there was a little bit of a dip around the tragedy in Paris.

我們還沒有看到，正如邁克爾提到的那樣，巴黎的悲劇有一點點的下降。

But outside of that, the demand patterns from European consumers for like Caribbean or Alaska and so forth has remained pretty in line.

但除此之外，歐洲消費者對加勒比海或阿拉斯加等地的需求模式仍相當一致。

And also we -- everything we do, we do in local currency so it is not necessarily more expensive except to the point where we start raising pricing because of changes of the demand environment.

而且我們所做的一切都是以當地貨幣進行的，因此不一定會更昂貴，除非我們因為需求環境的變化而開始提高定價。

Obviously there has been the euro, the sterling are a lot weaker.

顯然歐元、英鎊都疲軟了許多。

And so if you are British or you are continental then you want to buy a vacation in the United States it is more some expensive.

因此，如果您是英國人或大陸人，那麼您想在美國度假，價格會更貴。

So there is obviously some impact.

所以顯然是有一定影響的。

What we have tried to do, Harry, is incorporate all that into our guidance and we have looked at it based on where we are today, and that is where the guidance is coming from.

哈利，我們試圖做的就是將所有這些納入我們的指導中，我們根據我們今天的情況進行了研究，這就是指導的來源。

And yet, we have been able, as you have seen if we compare where we are overall ignoring the fuel/FX-specific impacts we are better off today than we were three months ago and so we think that the general trend has been more positive even though obviously if you look at any particular area there will be puts and takes.

然而，正如您所看到的，如果我們比較我們總體上忽略燃料/外匯特定影響的情況，我們今天的情況比三個月前要好，因此我們認為總體趨勢更加積極儘管很明顯，如果你觀察任何特定區域，就會有看跌和拿跌。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Certainly.

當然。

Your last question comes from the line of Jamie Rollo with Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的傑米羅洛（Jamie Rollo）。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

Just on the guidance mid-single digit yield growth for quarters two to four.

僅在第二至第四季的指導中個位數收益率成長。

I think I heard you say the Caribbean will be low single-digits for that period, Europe mid-single digits and Asia Pac low to mid-single digits which looks overall to be a bit below the sort of 5% figure you need to hit the mid-point of the guidance.

我想我聽到你說加勒比地區在這一時期的增長率將是低個位數，歐洲將是中個位數，亞太地區將是中低個位數，總體看來略低於你需要達到的5% 的數字指導的中點。

And then just the other quick one was on the other financial income from the joint venture.

然後另一個快速的問題是合資企業的其他財務收入。

If I take out the $33.5 million from Spanish tax reform, is it fair to say the remaining $21 million is pretty well all from the joint venture with TUI?

如果我從西班牙稅制改革中取出 3,350 萬美元，那麼可以公平地說剩下的 2,100 萬美元幾乎全部來自與 TUI 的合資企業嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi, Jaime.

嗨，海梅。

One of the other things that happened like in Q2 and Q3, so our commentary for example many about the Caribbean being low single-digits Q2 and beyond, that also factors in some structural changes.

第二季和第三季發生的其他事情之一，例如我們對加勒比地區第二季及以後的低個位數的評論，這也影響了一些結構性變化。

For example, Allure is coming out of the Caribbean and going into high yield in Europe.

例如，Allure 正在走出加勒比地區，並在歐洲進入高產階段。

A lot of that is mixed change between lower yielding products going to higher yielding products through the course of the year and that is how you average out to the 5%.

其中很大一部分是一年中低收益產品向高收益產品之間的混合變化，這就是你平均到 5% 的方式。

If you take out the tax component then the majority of that is our joint venture with TUI AG, TUI cruises.

如果要除去稅務成分，那麼其中大部分是我們與 TUI AG 的合資企業 TUI 郵輪。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, thank you for your assistance, Erica.

嗯，謝謝你的幫助，艾莉卡。

And we will thank all of you for your participation and interest in the Company.

我們將感謝大家的參與和對公司的興趣。

Laura will be available for any follow-ups you might have and I wish you all a very good day.

勞拉（Laura）將隨時為您提供任何後續服務，並祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。