使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System third quarter 2026 earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.
早安,歡迎參加萊德系統(Ryder System)2026 年第三季財報發布電話會議。(接線員指示)今天的電話會議將被錄音。如您有任何異議,請立即中斷連線。
I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder. Ms. Candela, you may begin.
現在我想介紹萊德投資人關係副總裁 Calene Candela 女士。Candela 女士,請開始。
Calene Candela - Vice President - Investor Relations
Calene Candela - Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call.
謝謝。早安,歡迎參加萊德 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。
I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on Ryder's website.
提醒各位,在本次簡報期間,您將聽到若干依據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》(Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層目前的預期,並可能因不確定性及情勢變化而有所變動。由於經濟、業務、競爭、市場、政治及監管等因素的變化,實際結果可能與上述預期存在重大差異。關於這些因素的更詳細資訊,以及各項非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最接近 GAAP 指標之調節表,均載於今早的財報新聞稿、財報電話會議簡報,以及萊德向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件中,相關資料可於萊德網站取得。
Presenting on today's call are John Diez, Chief Executive Officer; and Cristina Gallo-Aquino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.
今天電話會議的簡報人員包括:執行長 John Diez,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Cristina Gallo-Aquino。此外,車隊管理解決方案(FMS)總裁 Tom Havens,以及供應鏈解決方案與專屬運輸解決方案總裁 Steve Sensing 也在會上,並將於簡報結束後提供問答。
At this time, I'll turn the call over to John.
現在我把電話交給 John。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. The Ryder team delivered our eighth consecutive quarter of comparable earnings per share growth. Strong results were driven by consistent execution on our strategic initiatives and improving performance in used vehicle sales and rental.
各位早安,感謝加入我們。萊德團隊已連續第八季達成可比每股盈餘(EPS)成長。強勁的成果來自我們在策略性計畫上的持續落實,以及二手車銷售與租賃業務表現的改善。
I'll begin today's call with an update on our balanced growth strategy, followed by key highlights from our third quarter performance. Cristy will review our segment performance, capital spending and capital deployment capacity. I'll then review our outlook for 2026.
我將先更新我們的均衡成長策略,接著說明第三季表現的重點亮點。Cristy 將檢視各事業部門表現、資本支出與資本配置能力。之後我將回顧我們對 2026 年的展望。
Let's begin with a strategic update. Consistent execution on our balanced growth strategy has created a more durable earnings and cash flow profile, enabling us to outperform prior cycles. The solid foundation built by the Ryder team reflects actions taken to de-risk the portfolio, enhance returns and cash flow and shift to a less capital-intensive, more resilient business mix. This foundation continues to evolve and strengthen as we execute strategic priorities that create value for customers and shareholders.
先從策略更新開始。對均衡成長策略的持續落實,打造出更具韌性的獲利與現金流結構,使我們得以在過往景氣循環中表現更佳。萊德團隊所建立的穩固基礎,反映了我們為降低投資組合風險、提升報酬與現金流,並轉向資本密集度較低、韌性更強的業務組合所採取的行動。隨著我們執行能為客戶與股東創造價值的策略優先事項,這一基礎仍在持續演進並強化。
Operational excellence is where we stand out and what enables us to leverage our full end-to-end capabilities to solve our customers' toughest logistics and transportation challenges. Investing in customer-centric innovation that enables proactive supply chains and gives our customer a competitive advantage remains a key priority. We're enhancing the capabilities and driving the evolution of customer-facing platforms, such as RyderShare and RyderGyde by embedding Agentic AI. We're also leveraging AI in FMS customer service and roadside assistance to enhance the customer experience while improving effectiveness. Additionally, we continue to drive operating efficiencies in our warehouses by deploying automation and robotics.
營運卓越是我們的差異化所在,也使我們能運用端到端的完整能力,解決客戶最棘手的物流與運輸挑戰。投資以客戶為中心的創新,打造可主動應對的供應鏈並為客戶帶來競爭優勢,仍是關鍵優先事項。我們正透過嵌入 Agentic AI 來強化並推動面向客戶的平台演進,例如 RyderShare 與 RyderGyde。我們也在 FMS 客戶服務與道路救援中運用 AI,以提升客戶體驗並提高效率。此外,我們持續透過導入自動化與機器人技術,推動倉儲營運效率提升。
We remain focused on profitably growing our contractual relationships by increasing customer engagement across our portfolio of port-to-door solutions. Over 90% of our revenue is generated by long-term contracts and this high-quality contractual base has proven to be a key driver of business model resilience over the cycle. Our three complementary business segments are leaders in North American logistics and transportation and position us well to support customers and their increasing need for the value-added solutions that we provide.
我們仍專注於以獲利方式擴大合約型合作關係,透過提升客戶在我們港到門(port-to-door)解決方案組合中的參與度來推動成長。我們超過 90% 的營收來自長期合約,而這個高品質的合約基礎已被證明是景氣循環中商業模式韌性的關鍵驅動因素。我們三個互補的事業部門皆為北美物流與運輸領域的領導者,使我們能良好支援客戶,以及其對我們所提供之加值解決方案日益增加的需求。
I am confident our market-leading solutions, strong relationships and transform model will continue to drive long-term earnings growth. We're also excited to unlock the company's full earnings potential as we continue executing on our strategic priorities against the backdrop of improving freight environment.
我相信我們的市場領先解決方案、穩固的客戶關係以及轉型模式,將持續推動長期獲利成長。隨著貨運環境改善,我們也很期待在持續落實策略優先事項的同時,釋放公司完整的獲利潛能。
Turning to page 5. Our business model is benefiting from a broader and more diversified revenue mix. Key financial and operating metrics have improved since 2018, reflecting the effectiveness of our strategy. In 2018, prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from our Fleet Management segment. Ryder generated comparable EPS of $5.95 and return on equity of 13%. Operating cash flow was $1.7 billion. This was during peak freight cycle conditions.
請看第 5 頁。我們的商業模式正受益於更廣泛且更多元的營收組合。自 2018 年以來,關鍵財務與營運指標已有所改善,反映我們策略的有效性。2018 年,在我們推行均衡成長策略之前,我們 84 億美元營收的大部分來自車隊管理事業部門。萊德的可比每股盈餘為 5.95 美元,股東權益報酬率為 13%。營運現金流為 17 億美元。當時正處於貨運景氣循環的高峰。
Now let's look at Ryder today. Our revenue mix has shifted towards supply chain and dedicated with approximately 60% of 2026 expected revenue generated by these asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018 as a result of organic growth, strategic acquisitions and innovative technology. Since 2018, we've more than doubled the size of our asset-light businesses while also delivering increased profitability.
現在來看今日的萊德。我們的營收組合已轉向供應鏈與專屬運輸,預期 2026 年約 60% 的營收將由這些輕資產(asset-light)業務貢獻,相較 2018 年的 44% 明顯提升,主要來自有機成長、策略性併購與創新科技的推動。自 2018 年以來,我們的輕資產業務規模已擴大逾一倍,同時也帶來更高的獲利能力。
Our 2026 comparable EPS forecast range of $14.85 to $15.05 is more than 2.5x our 2018 comparable EPS of $5.95. Our return on equity forecast of 18% to 19% is also well above the 13% generated during the 2018 cycle peak. As a result of our profitable growth across our contractual businesses, forecasted operating cash flow of $2.6 billion is nearly $1 billion or 50% higher than 2018. In 2026, the business is expected to outperform prior cycles even when comparing the pre-transformation peak to the current market environment.
我們對 2026 年可比每股盈餘的預測區間為 14.85 至 15.05 美元,較 2018 年的 5.95 美元提升超過 2.5 倍。我們對股東權益報酬率的預測為 18% 至 19%,也明顯高於 2018 年景氣高峰時的 13%。由於我們在合約型業務上的獲利成長,預估營運現金流為 26 億美元,較 2018 年增加近 10 億美元或 50%。在 2026 年,即使將轉型前的景氣高峰與目前市場環境相比,我們的業務預期仍將優於以往循環。
Moving to key performance highlights from the third quarter. Comparable EPS for the quarter was up 21%, marking our eighth consecutive quarter of comparable EPS growth. Results reflect the strength of our contractual portfolio, benefits from strategic initiatives as well as improving performance in used vehicle sales and rental. Return on equity increased to 18%, in line with our expectations given where we are in the freight cycle. We remain on track to deliver more than $70 million in benefits from strategic initiatives during 2026.
接著看第三季的關鍵績效亮點。本季可比每股盈餘年增 21%,為連續第八季可比 EPS 成長。結果反映我們合約型投資組合的強勁表現、策略性計畫帶來的效益,以及二手車銷售與租賃業務表現的改善。股東權益報酬率提升至 18%,符合我們對貨運循環所處階段的預期。我們仍按計畫在 2026 年透過策略性計畫帶來超過 7,000 萬美元的效益。
These initiatives are part of a multiyear program launched in 2024 with total benefits in excess of $170 million expected by the end of this year. Consistent execution on these initiatives is the key driver of expected earnings growth in 2026. And finally, we're encouraged to see benefits across the business from continued strengthening of freight market conditions.
這些計畫屬於一項於 2024 年啟動的多年期方案,預期至今年年底累計效益將超過 1.7 億美元。持續落實這些計畫,是 2026 年預期獲利成長的關鍵驅動因素。最後,我們也樂見貨運市場狀況持續改善,為整體業務帶來正面效益。
Contractual sales remained strong across all three segments with activity accelerating in lease and Dedicated. Increased sales activity and robust pipelines reflect the value of our solutions and increased customer demand for quality capacity. Customers are facing a host of challenges, including increasing difficulty attracting and retaining drivers, securing reliable and safe capacity and addressing rising insurance, transportation and litigation costs. These dynamics reinforce the value of Ryder's end-to-end transportation and logistics solutions and are leading to new customer wins and expansion activity with existing customers.
三個事業部門的合約型銷售皆維持強勁,其中租賃與專屬運輸(Dedicated)的活動加速。銷售活動增加與強勁的商機管線,反映我們解決方案的價值,以及客戶對高品質運能需求的提升。客戶正面臨多項挑戰,包括招募與留任駕駛愈發困難、取得可靠且安全的運能,以及因保險、運輸與訴訟成本上升所帶來的壓力。這些動態進一步凸顯萊德端到端運輸與物流解決方案的價值,並帶動新客戶得標以及既有客戶的擴張活動。
Used vehicle sales results continued improving and reflect better-than-expected pricing and retail sales volumes. Demand for used vehicles benefited from lower market inventories and spot rates that remain elevated. Lease miles per unit increased year-over-year and sequentially, indicating that our lease customers are increasing utilization of their fleets.
二手車銷售結果持續改善,反映價格與零售銷量均優於預期。二手車需求受惠於市場庫存較低,以及仍維持在高檔的即期運價(spot rates)。每單位租賃里程數不僅年增亦呈季增,顯示我們的租賃客戶正在提高其車隊使用率。
Commercial rental utilization was strong at 77%, up 700 basis points year-over-year. While demand remained below prior year, it increased sequentially in line with historical seasonal patterns and was particularly strong in the tractor class. Third quarter utilization was the highest we've seen since 2022, and we expect utilization will remain near this level in the fourth quarter. The market remains in the early stages of a recovery with conditions continuing to improve. However, geopolitical and macroeconomic factors remain key variables affecting the pace and durability of the recovery.
商用租賃使用率維持強勁,達 77%,年增 700 個基點。雖然需求仍低於去年同期,但依照歷史季節性型態呈現季增,其中牽引車(tractor)類別表現尤為強勁。第三季使用率為自 2022 年以來最高,我們預期第四季使用率將維持在接近此水準。市場仍處於復甦初期,狀況持續改善。然而,地緣政治與總體經濟因素仍是影響復甦速度與持續性的關鍵變數。
I'll now turn the call over to Cristy to further review our third quarter performance.
接下來我把電話交給 Cristy,請她進一步回顧我們第三季的表現。
Cristina Gallo-Aquino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer
Cristina Gallo-Aquino - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer
Thanks, John. Total company operating revenue increased 6% to $2.8 billion, reflecting contractual revenue growth in supply chain and fleet management. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $4.33 in the third quarter, up 21% from the prior year, reflecting benefits from higher earnings in fleet management and share repurchases. Return on equity, our primary financial metric, was 18%, up from prior year, reflecting share repurchases and earnings growth. Free cash flow increased to $992 million from $496 million in the prior year, reflecting lower capital expenditures year-to-date.
謝謝你,John。公司整體營運收入成長 6% 至 28 億美元,反映供應鏈與車隊管理的合約收入成長。第三季持續營運的可比每股盈餘為 4.33 美元,較去年同期成長 21%,反映車隊管理獲利提升以及股票回購帶來的效益。股東權益報酬率(ROE)作為我們的主要財務指標為 18%,較去年同期提高,反映股票回購與獲利成長。自由現金流由去年同期的 4.96 億美元增加至 9.92 億美元,反映年初至今資本支出較低。
In Fleet Management Solutions, operating revenue increased 5%, reflecting contractual revenue growth. Earnings before taxes were $177 million, up 21% versus prior year, reflecting benefits from strategic initiatives on ChoiceLease results as well as strengthening market conditions in used vehicle sales and improved rental performance.
在車隊管理解決方案(FMS)方面,營運收入成長 5%,反映合約收入成長。稅前盈餘為 1.77 億美元,較去年同期成長 21%,反映策略性措施對 ChoiceLease 成果的貢獻,以及二手車銷售市場狀況轉強與租賃表現改善。
In rental, utilization increased to 77% on a 12% smaller average fleet. Rental results benefited from planned asset management actions and higher pricing. Rental pricing was up 4% year-over-year. Fleet Management EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 13.2% in the third quarter, up from prior year and in line with our long-term target of low teens over the cycle. We're encouraged to achieve this profitability level in the early stages of the freight market recovery.
在租賃業務方面,在平均車隊規模縮小 12% 的情況下,使用率提升至 77%。租賃結果受惠於既定的資產管理行動與較高的定價。租賃價格年增 4%。第三季車隊管理的稅前盈餘(EBT)占營運收入比重為 13.2%,較去年同期提高,並符合我們長期目標:在景氣循環中維持約低十位數百分比。我們很受鼓舞能在貨運市場復甦的早期階段達到此一獲利水準。
Looking ahead, FMS profitability has further upside as used vehicle sales and rental market conditions normalize, and we begin to realize the benefits from contractual fleet growth.
展望未來,隨著二手車銷售與租賃市場狀況回歸常態,並且我們開始實現合約車隊成長帶來的效益,FMS 的獲利能力仍有進一步上行空間。
In used vehicle sales, year-over-year pricing increased 19% for tractors and 5% for trucks. Sequential pricing increased 15% for tractors and 6% per truck. In the third quarter, the retail channel accounted for 61% of our sales volume, up from 54% in the prior year and up from 56% in the second quarter. During the quarter, we sold 5,100 used vehicles, in line with prior quarter and up 200 units year-over-year. Used vehicle inventory declined to 7,300 vehicles near the lower end of our target range. We're encouraged by continued improvement in used vehicle pricing, reflecting the early stages of a freight market recovery.
在二手車銷售方面,牽引車價格年增 19%,卡車價格年增 5%。按季比較,牽引車價格上升 15%,每輛卡車價格上升 6%。第三季零售通路占我們銷售量的 61%,高於去年同期的 54%,也高於第二季的 56%。本季我們售出 5,100 輛二手車,與前一季相當,且較去年同期增加 200 輛。二手車庫存下降至 7,300 輛,接近我們目標區間的下緣。我們對二手車價格持續改善感到鼓舞,這反映貨運市場復甦的早期階段。
In Supply Chain, operating revenue increased 9%, driven by new business and higher volumes and pricing, partially offset by lost business in automotive. Earnings before taxes increased 7% from prior year. Results benefited from higher volumes in e-commerce fulfillment and Ryder Last Mile, which leveraged our optimized omnichannel retail network. These benefits were partially offset by productivity of new business ramping up and lower automotive results. Supply chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 8.1% in the quarter at the segment's long-term target of high single digits.
在供應鏈業務方面,營運收入成長 9%,主要由新業務以及更高的量與價格帶動,但部分被汽車產業流失的業務所抵銷。稅前盈餘較去年同期成長 7%。結果受惠於電商履約與 Ryder Last Mile 的量增加,並運用我們最佳化的全通路零售網路槓桿放大效益;但部分被新業務爬坡期的生產力影響與汽車業務較低的成果所抵銷。本季供應鏈 EBT 占營運收入比重為 8.1%,符合該事業群長期「高個位數」的目標。
In Dedicated, operating revenue decreased 1% due to lower year-over-year fleet count, partially offset by higher pricing. Sequentially, the power fleet count increased and was up 100 units due to improved net sales activity. Earnings before taxes declined from the prior year, reflecting lower operating revenue and a prior year workers' compensation insurance benefit, partially offset by benefits from strategic initiatives. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 7.5% in the quarter at the segment's long-term high single-digit target.
在專屬運輸(Dedicated)方面,營運收入年減 1%,主因車隊數量較去年同期降低,但部分被較高的定價所抵銷。按季比較,動力車隊數量增加,因淨銷售活動改善而增加 100 輛。稅前盈餘較去年同期下降,反映營運收入較低以及去年同期有勞工補償保險收益,但部分被策略性措施帶來的效益所抵銷。本季 Dedicated 的 EBT 占營運收入比重為 7.5%,符合該事業群長期「高個位數」的目標。
Next, let me cover capital expenditures. Year-to-date, lease capital spending of $996 million was below prior year, reflecting the timing of sales activity. Year-to-date rental capital spending of $265 million was just below prior year.
接下來我說明資本支出。年初至今,租賃(lease)資本支出為 9.96 億美元,低於去年同期,反映銷售活動時點的影響。年初至今租車(rental)資本支出為 2.65 億美元,略低於去年同期。
Our full year 2026 capital expenditures forecast of $2.4 billion is above prior year and unchanged from our prior forecast as increased investments in our rental fleet will be offset by lower lease spending. Our 2026 forecast for lease capital expenditures is now $1.7 billion, above prior year, but below our previous forecast, reflecting the timing of lease sales activity.
我們對 2026 全年資本支出的預測為 24 億美元,高於去年同期,且與先前預測一致,因對租車車隊的投資增加將被較低的租賃資本支出所抵銷。我們目前對 2026 年租賃資本支出的預測為 17 億美元,高於去年同期,但低於先前預測,反映租賃銷售活動時點的影響。
Our 2026 forecast for rental capital expenditures increased to $500 million, up $300 million from our prior forecast. A portion of these vehicles were delivered during the third quarter, and we expect remaining deliveries towards the end of the year. This rental investment positions us to benefit from improving market conditions and capture higher expected demand in 2027.
我們對 2026 年租車資本支出的預測上調至 5 億美元,較先前預測增加 3 億美元。其中一部分車輛已於第三季交付,其餘交付預期將落在年底前後。這項租車投資使我們能受惠於市場狀況改善,並掌握 2027 年預期更高的需求。
We expect the ending rental fleet to increase 8% sequentially in the fourth quarter, resulting in an approximate 10% increase in the second half of 2026. Even with these investments, our ending rental fleet remains below peak levels. We expect approximately $500 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles in 2026, in line with prior year. Full year 2026 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $1.9 billion.
我們預期第四季期末租車車隊將按季增加 8%,使 2026 年下半年約增加 10%。即使進行這些投資,我們的期末租車車隊仍低於高峰水準。我們預期 2026 年二手車出售所得約為 5 億美元,與去年同期一致。2026 全年淨資本支出預期約為 19 億美元。
Our high-quality contractual revenue base is generating higher earnings and cash flow, which is delevering our balance sheet at a more rapid pace than prior to our business model transformation. This momentum is creating incremental debt capacity given our target leverage range of between 2.5x and 3x.
我們高品質的合約收入基礎正在帶來更高的獲利與現金流,使我們的資產負債表去槓桿速度較商業模式轉型前更快。鑑於我們目標槓桿區間為 2.5 倍至 3 倍,這股動能正在創造額外的舉債能力。
As shown on the slide, over a three-year period, we expect to generate approximately $10.5 billion from operating cash flow and used vehicle sales proceeds. This creates approximately $3.5 billion of incremental debt capacity.
如投影片所示,在三年期間內,我們預期可由營運現金流與二手車出售所得合計產生約 105 億美元,進而創造約 35 億美元的額外舉債能力。
Together, these sources provide around $14 billion of capital available for deployment. Over the same three-year period, we estimate approximately $9.5 billion will be deployed for the replacement of lease and rental vehicles and for dividends. This leaves around $4.5 billion, which equates to approximately 50% of our quarter-end market cap available for flexible deployment to support growth and return capital to shareholders. We estimate about half of our flexible deployment capacity will be used for growth capital expenditures and the remainder will be available for discretionary share repurchases, strategic acquisitions and investments.
綜合而言,這些來源提供約 140 億美元可供運用的資本。在同一三年期間內,我們估計約 95 億美元將用於汰換租賃與租車車輛以及股利發放。剩餘約 45 億美元,相當於我們季末市值約 50%,可彈性運用以支持成長並回饋股東。我們估計約一半的彈性運用額度將用於成長型資本支出,其餘將可用於酌情股票回購、策略性併購以及投資。
Our capital allocation priorities remain focused on profitable growth, strategic investments and returning capital to our shareholders. Our top priority is to invest in organic growth. Aligned with these priorities, year-to-date, we funded lease and rental replacement CapEx of approximately $1.3 billion and returned $485 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of 242% at quarter-end, slightly below our target range and continues to provide ample capacity to fund our capital allocation priorities.
我們的資本配置優先順序仍聚焦於獲利性成長、策略性投資,以及回饋股東。我們的首要任務是投資於內生成長。依循這些優先順序,年初至今我們投入約 13 億美元用於租賃與租車汰換資本支出(CapEx),並透過回購與股利向股東回饋 4.85 億美元。我們的資產負債表仍然穩健,季末槓桿率為 242%,略低於我們的目標區間,並持續提供充足的能力以支應我們的資本配置優先事項。
With that, I'll turn the call over to John to discuss our outlook.
接下來我把電話交回給 John,請他說明我們的展望。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Thank you, Cristy, and turning to our outlook. We've increased our full year 2026 comparable earnings per share forecast to a range of $14.85 to $15.05, up from a range of $14.40 to $14.80. The increase to our forecast reflects stronger-than-expected third quarter performance and incremental benefits expected in the fourth quarter from improving market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental.
謝謝你,Cristy。接著談我們的展望。我們已將 2026 全年可比每股盈餘預測上調至 14.85 至 15.05 美元區間,先前為 14.40 至 14.80 美元區間。上調反映第三季表現優於預期,以及第四季因二手車銷售與租賃市場狀況改善而預期帶來的額外效益。
We've increased our 2026 ROE forecast to a range of 18% to 19% to reflect higher expected earnings. Our free cash flow forecast of $700 million to $800 million remains unchanged. And our fourth quarter comparable EPS forecast range is $4.25 to $4.45, above prior year of $3.59. Our Transform model is well positioned for continued earnings growth.
我們也將 2026 年 ROE 預測上調至 18% 至 19% 的區間,以反映更高的預期獲利。我們對自由現金流 7 億至 8 億美元的預測維持不變。此外,我們第四季可比 EPS 預測區間為 4.25 至 4.45 美元,高於去年同期的 3.59 美元。我們的 Transform 模式已具備持續獲利成長的良好條件。
We continue to expect 2026 earnings growth to be driven by incremental benefits from multiyear strategic initiatives. These initiatives represent structural changes we're making to the business and are not dependent on a cycle upturn. In 2024 and 2025, we realized approximately $100 million in benefits, leaving more than $70 million of incremental benefits expected in 2026.
我們仍預期 2026 年的獲利成長將由多年期策略性措施帶來的額外效益所驅動。這些措施代表我們對業務所做的結構性變革,並不依賴景氣循環上行。在 2024 年與 2025 年,我們已實現約 1 億美元的效益,2026 年仍預期可再取得超過 7,000 萬美元的額外效益。
In addition to driving outperformance relative to prior cycles, our transform model also provides a solid foundation for the business to meaningfully benefit from the cycle upturn. By the next cycle peak, we estimate the potential benefit could be $250 million or more with the majority expected to come from the cyclical recovery of rental and used vehicle sales and fleet management with additional benefits from higher omnichannel retail volumes, leveraging our rationalized footprint. We expect to recognize these benefits over time as freight market conditions improve.
除了相較於先前景氣循環帶動更佳表現之外,我們的轉型模式也為業務奠定了堅實基礎,使其能在景氣回升時獲得實質效益。到下一個循環高峰時,我們估計潛在效益可能達到2.5億美元或以上,其中大部分預期來自租賃與二手車銷售以及車隊管理的景氣復甦,另有部分效益來自更高的全通路零售量,並藉由我們已精簡的據點布局提升槓桿效益。隨著貨運市場狀況改善,我們預期將隨時間逐步認列這些效益。
We now expect to realize approximately $40 million of upturn benefits in 2026, up from the $20 million in our prior forecast. These benefits are driven primarily by higher used vehicle sales results and, to a lesser extent, from improved rental performance. Profitable contractual growth provides another meaningful opportunity for long-term earnings growth.
我們目前預期在2026年可實現約4,000萬美元的景氣回升效益,高於先前預測的2,000萬美元。這些效益主要由二手車銷售表現提升所帶動,並在較小程度上來自租賃業務表現改善。具獲利性的合約型成長亦提供另一項重要機會,以推動長期盈餘成長。
Strong 2026 sales activity in lease, dedicated and supply chain is creating growth momentum across our contractual businesses. We remain focused on pricing discipline. And as a result, we expect our portfolio of five- to seven-year lease contracts in FMS and three- to five-year contracts in Supply Chain and Dedicated to provide strong returns and earnings durability.
2026年在租賃、專屬運輸(Dedicated)與供應鏈領域的強勁銷售活動,正為我們的合約型業務帶來成長動能。我們仍專注於價格紀律。因此,我們預期FMS中為期五至七年的租賃合約組合,以及供應鏈與專屬運輸中為期三至五年的合約,將帶來強勁報酬與更具韌性的獲利表現。
We've been pleased by the business' resilience and performance over the most recent cycle and are confident each of our business segments is well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. Our transformed business model continues to deliver value to our customers and shareholders. We continue to outperform prior cycles, and our results are benefiting from consistent execution and the strength of our contractual portfolio.
我們對公司在最近一個景氣循環中的韌性與表現感到滿意,並有信心我們各業務部門都已做好準備,可在景氣回升時受益。我們轉型後的商業模式持續為客戶與股東創造價值。我們持續優於先前循環,而我們的成果也受惠於一貫的執行力與強健的合約組合。
We continue to see significant opportunity for profitable growth supported by secular trends, our operational expertise and ongoing momentum from multiyear strategic initiatives. We remain committed to investing in the future with products, capabilities and technologies that will deliver value to our customers and our shareholders. Our transform model provides a solid foundation for Ryder to meaningfully benefit from the cycle upturn. That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note, we expect to file our 10-Q later today.
在長期結構性趨勢、我們的營運專業能力,以及多年期策略性計畫所帶來的持續動能支持下,我們仍看到顯著的獲利性成長機會。我們仍致力於投資未來,透過能為客戶與股東創造價值的產品、能力與技術。我們的轉型模式為Ryder在景氣回升時獲得實質效益提供了堅實基礎。以上為我們預先準備的發言。請注意,我們預期將於今天稍晚提交10-Q。
At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the call for questions.
此時,我將把電話交給接線員,開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.
(接線員指示)Jordan Alliger,高盛。
Jordan Alliger - Analyst
Jordan Alliger - Analyst
So a question. There's been a fair bit of discussion of late from other transports about driver-related cost pressures, difficulty in getting drivers, particularly in Dedicated. I'm just curious if you could talk to those two points and the inflationary pressures on the driver front, does that in any way impact your ability to do what you want to do on the dedicated margin front? And frankly, can you go in and do you need to go in to rework contracts as needed?
我有個問題。最近其他運輸公司對司機相關成本壓力、招募司機的困難(尤其是在專屬運輸 Dedicated)方面有不少討論。我想請教你們能否談談這兩點,以及司機端的通膨壓力是否會以任何方式影響你們在專屬運輸毛利率方面想達成的目標?坦白說,你們是否能、或是否需要在必要時重新調整合約?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Thank you. Yes, let me address some of the market conditions, and then I'll turn it over to Steve, who can provide you details. Just a reminder for the group, our Dedicated business is highly specialized. So much of the discussion you've heard in the marketplace, clearly for us is a little bit different in that 70% to 80% of our Dedicated is highly specialized. These are typically private fleet conversions where we take over a private fleet and execute the transportation.
謝謝。是的,我先說明一些市場狀況,接著交給Steve補充細節。先提醒各位,我們的專屬運輸(Dedicated)業務高度專業化。因此,市場上你們聽到的許多討論,對我們而言確實有些不同,因為我們約70%到80%的專屬運輸屬於高度專業化。這通常是私有車隊轉換案,我們接手客戶的私有車隊並負責執行運輸。
Typically, we are dealing with very experienced professional drivers, which have a different wage structure than if you would consider a brand-new driver. So what we've done over the last couple of years, and you heard us talk about this post-COVID is we've introduced to many of our contracts inflationary adjusters for wage inflation, and that's still in place. So we would expect the impact to us to be really limited to select markets and not a broad-based kind of impact.
一般而言,我們面對的是非常有經驗的專業司機,其薪資結構不同於全新入行的司機。過去幾年我們所做的(你們也聽我們在COVID之後提過)是,在許多合約中導入針對薪資通膨的調整機制,而且目前仍在運作。因此我們預期對我們的影響將主要侷限於特定市場,而非廣泛性的影響。
And I'll let Steve maybe talk a little bit about what that looks like.
我讓Steve再談談這具體是什麼樣的情況。
John Sensing - President - Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions
John Sensing - President - Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions
Yes. Thanks, Jordan. Overall, we're seeing about a mid-single-digit wage increase in certain regions. So it's very targeted, not a wide range nationwide issue. If you'll recall back during COVID, we already worked on our contracts with our customers to really address this. So we have annual CPI openers with the customers, but we also have driver wage indices that allow us if we see a drastic change to go back and open discussions with those customers. So I think we're pretty well protected there. Sometimes it's not immediate, but we do have tight windows.
好的。謝謝你,Jordan。整體而言,我們在某些地區看到約中個位數百分比的薪資增幅。因此這是非常具針對性的狀況,並非全國性的大範圍問題。若你回想COVID期間,我們已與客戶在合約上做了調整以因應這點。我們與客戶有每年依CPI調整的條款,同時也有司機薪資指數機制,若看到劇烈變化,我們可以回到客戶端重新開啟討論。因此我認為我們在這方面有相當好的保障。有時不會立即反映,但我們確實有明確且緊密的時間窗口。
So from a recruiting standpoint, our recruiting team does a great job. Remember, 80% of our jobs are home every day or every night. So that's very attractive along with our comprehensive safety program. So I think we're in pretty good shape there, and we'll continue to focus on that.
就招募而言,我們的招募團隊做得非常好。請記得,我們80%的工作是每天或每晚都能回家。再加上我們完善的安全計畫,這非常有吸引力。因此我認為我們的狀況相當不錯,並會持續專注於此。
Jordan Alliger - Analyst
Jordan Alliger - Analyst
Great. And just one other quick follow-up question on the FMS side. It was a good step-up in that margin to the 13% level. So I guess the question is, can we stick around that level? Or what has to happen to stay at that target zone?
很好。另外一個關於FMS的快速追問。該業務的利潤率提升到13%水準,是個不錯的躍升。我想問的是,我們能否維持在這個水準附近?或者要維持在目標區間,需要發生哪些條件?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Okay. I'll let Tom address that.
好的。我讓Tom來回答。
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Yes. I appreciate you pointing that out, but it was the first quarter where we saw all three key product lines, lease, SelectCare and rental, all with year-over-year revenue increases, albeit relatively small in rental, but it was nice to see. It was the first time we had seen that increase year-over-year since Q4 of 2022. So we're expecting this to be the inflection point with rental. So very encouraging to get to 13% this early in the cycle, but certainly encouraged that we'll continue to do that with all three product lines growing year-over-year. So we do expect to see that over the coming quarters and into next year, assuming we continue to see the tailwinds of the cycle.
是的。謝謝你指出這點。這是我們首次看到三大關鍵產品線——租賃、SelectCare與租車——全部都出現年對年營收成長,儘管租車的成長相對較小,但看到這點仍令人欣慰。這也是自2022年第四季以來,我們首次看到年對年成長。因此我們預期這將是租車業務的轉折點。在景氣循環這麼早的階段就達到13%非常令人鼓舞;而且在三大產品線皆年對年成長的情況下,我們也更有信心能持續維持。我們確實預期在接下來幾季以及明年會看到這樣的表現,前提是我們持續看到景氣循環帶來的順風。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes, Jordan, just to add to that, I think we want to underscore the fact that all the good work the team has been building up for with all the strategic initiatives, both on the maintenance side and the lease pricing side has gotten us here. And that business to get to that low teens level early in the cycle really underscores the good work that the team has been doing. So thank you for asking the question.
是的,Jordan,我再補充一下。我們想強調的是,團隊在各項策略性計畫上——無論是維修端或租賃定價端——長期累積的成果,讓我們走到今天。能在景氣循環早期就把該業務拉升到十幾%的低段水準,確實凸顯團隊所做的優秀工作。謝謝你提出這個問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.
(接線員指示)Brian Ossenbeck,摩根大通。
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Maybe a quick follow-up first just on the, I guess, the dedicated protection. Have you felt any, I guess, mismatch in terms of timing when you can push through the higher cost and pay for the drivers yet? And with Cardinal, I think you closed that in '24. So was there anything you need to do there to kind of bring those contracts up to the same level of protection?
我先快速追問一下,關於專屬運輸(Dedicated)的保護機制。你們是否感受到在時間點上有些不匹配——也就是你們需要先承擔較高成本並支付司機薪資,但向客戶轉嫁回收的時間較晚?另外,Cardinal我記得你們是在2024年完成收購。所以那邊是否需要做些事情,讓那些合約也提升到同等的保護水準?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes, Brian. I think you're asking primarily about the timing of the wage increases relative to when we can recover from our customers. I would say there's usually a bit of a lag. We're not seeing any significant drag in our business as of yet.
是的,Brian。我想你主要是在問薪資上調的時間點,相對於我們何時能從客戶端回收的時間點。我會說通常會有一些滯後。不過截至目前,我們尚未在業務上看到任何顯著的拖累。
I think as you heard from Steve, there are select markets where that becomes more acute, and we're getting out in front of it pretty quickly. We did make the acquisition of Cardinal back in early 2024. So this will be the first cycle that we go through that with those customers. Many of those customers have been replaced over the last several years. And we've introduced that kind of language and protection in those contracts. Obviously, there may be a little bit of a tail, but we don't expect any material drag from that activity.
我想如同你從Steve那裡聽到的,在某些特定市場情況會更為明顯,而我們也很快就會提前因應。我們在2024年初完成了Cardinal的收購,因此這將是我們與那些客戶一起經歷的第一個景氣循環。這些客戶中有許多在過去幾年已被替換,而我們也在那些合約中導入了這類條款與保護機制。當然,可能仍會有一些尾端影響,但我們不預期這些活動會造成任何重大拖累。
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
All right. And then just secondly, from -- you raised the, I guess, the benefits for the upturn conditions in FMS, another $20 million to $40 million. Is that mostly -- how is that split between 3Q and 4Q? And what are sort of your early thoughts on how the remaining might transition into next year?
好的。第二點,你們把FMS在景氣回升條件下的效益上調了——我想是再增加2,000萬到4,000萬美元。這主要是——在第三季與第四季之間大概如何分配?以及你們對剩餘部分在明年如何延續轉換,有哪些初步想法?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. As you saw in the numbers, we continue to see really good used vehicle performance. We are seeing at a broad market level, lower used vehicle market inventory. So that's providing a little bit of tailwind for us. We did start moving our retail wholesale mix upward and getting back to normalized levels. So we made improvements there.
是的。如同你在數字中看到的,我們持續看到二手車表現非常強勁。我們在整體市場層面看到二手車市場庫存偏低,因此這對我們形成了一些順風。我們也開始把零售/批發的組合往上調整,回到較為正常化的水準,所以在那裡也有所改善。
So a good portion of that improvement of the $20 million going to $40 million, I would say it's used vehicles, both driven by pricing and some of the actions we're taking to improve the overall retail mix. And then you are seeing the early signs of an inflection point, as you heard from Tom on rental. We do expect this fourth quarter to be better than last year's fourth quarter. So you got a little bit of the carry-through from rental posted in that incremental $20 million for the year.
因此,從 2,000 萬美元提升到 4,000 萬美元的改善中,有相當一部分我會說來自二手車,既受價格帶動,也受我們為改善整體零售組合所採取的一些行動帶動。然後你也會看到一個拐點的早期跡象,正如你從 Tom 談到租賃(rental)時所聽到的。我們確實預期今年第四季會優於去年第四季。所以,年度增加的那 2,000 萬美元中,也包含了一點來自租賃業務的延續效應。
Operator
Operator
Scott Group, Wolfe Research.
Scott Group,Wolfe Research。
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
So I wanted to just ask about some fleet expectations. I guess, leasing, Dedicated continues to fall a little bit sequentially. Rental, I guess, just started to move up for the first time in a couple of years. How should we think about fleet growth for the three businesses into '27?
我想問一下關於車隊的一些預期。我想,租賃(leasing)與 Dedicated 似乎仍在逐季小幅下滑。租賃(rental)我想則是兩年來第一次開始回升。我們應該如何看待這三個業務到 2027 年的車隊成長?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. I'll give you some high-level remarks, and I think Tom can provide some details for you. If you think about what's been happening over the last several quarters, we've been seeing great sales performance. So we do have visibility to wins and when that equipment will start coming in for both Dedicated and fleet management.
是的。我先給一些高層次的說明,我想 Tom 可以再提供一些細節。若你回顧過去幾個季度發生的事情,我們看到銷售表現非常好。因此,我們對於 Dedicated 與車隊管理(fleet management)的得標情況,以及相關設備何時開始到位,是有能見度的。
Our expectations, we kind of flattened out in the quarter. You may see a tick up in Q4, and then it becomes more meaningful for both of those businesses as you get into 2027 to start the year. But I'll let Tom maybe talk a little bit about what you've seen at lease and also what's happening with the rental fleet.
我們的預期是,本季大致持平。你可能會在第四季看到小幅上升,而當你進入 2027 年、在年初開始時,這對這兩個業務的影響會更為明顯。不過我先讓 Tom 也許談談你在租賃(lease)端看到的情況,以及租賃(rental)車隊正在發生什麼。
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Yes. So it's probably a little bit different story depending on the product line. I'll start with lease. So as John mentioned here, we've had three consecutive positive net sales quarters in lease, but really accelerated here in the third quarter. Now with lease, some of the timing, it does take a little bit longer before you see those sales results transition into the fleet with some of the ins and outs and the timing of the orders. So you might see -- you may not necessarily see the lease fleet improve yet by the end of this year. But certainly going into 2027 based on the sales results we're seeing, we would certainly expect to see that.
是的。所以依產品線不同,故事可能有點不一樣。我先從 lease 談起。如 John 剛才提到的,我們在 lease 已經連續三個季度出現正的淨銷售,但在第三季明顯加速。至於 lease,由於一些時點因素,在你看到這些銷售成果轉化為車隊規模之前,通常需要更長一點時間,因為涉及進出(ins and outs)以及訂單交付時點。因此,你可能不一定會在今年年底前就看到 lease 車隊改善。但基於我們看到的銷售成果,進入 2027 年我們當然預期會看到改善。
In rental, I think we've seen the inflection point, and you heard from some of the opening comments that we've placed orders, and you're going to see that rental fleet continue to grow through this year with some benefit here in the fourth quarter, but really to set us up for what we expect to be an increasing demand environment into 2027.
在 rental 方面,我認為我們已經看到拐點;你也從一些開場評論中聽到我們已經下了訂單。你會看到 rental 車隊在今年持續成長,第四季會有一些助益,但更重要的是,這是在為我們預期 2027 年需求環境走強做準備。
And then SelectCare, we've started to see started to see it in Q2, where we did start to sign new business. And in SelectCare, you see it much more quickly than you do with lease as you transition those maintenance contracts pretty quickly. So you saw fleet growth, pretty good fleet growth year-over-year. Our pipelines are really strong, really at record levels in both SelectCare and in Lease. So we would expect that momentum to continue to carry into 2027 and see in 2027, all three product lines with fleet increases.
然後是 SelectCare,我們從第二季開始就開始看到——我們確實開始簽下新業務。在 SelectCare,你會比 lease 更快看到效果,因為維修保養合約的轉換速度相當快。所以你看到車隊規模年對年成長,而且成長不錯。我們的商機管線非常強勁,在 SelectCare 與 Lease 兩者都接近歷史新高。因此我們預期這股動能會延續到 2027 年,並且在 2027 年看到三條產品線的車隊都增加。
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
Okay. And then just secondly, we've got $40 million of the $250 million of like cyclical upturn tailwinds. Does that -- like versus history, does that feel about right to get that sort of percentage in the first year of an up cycle? Like what does the second year typically look like? I don't know, it's hard to like -- some of this is transactional, so hard to know, but how much of an uptick do you think we could see relative to that $250 million target? And any other thoughts on the puts and takes for '27?
好的。第二個問題,在 2.5 億美元的景氣循環上行順風中,目前有 4,000 萬美元。相較於歷史經驗,這樣——在上行週期的第一年拿到這樣的比例——是否大致合理?第二年通常會是什麼樣子?我知道這很難——其中一些是交易型(transactional),所以很難判斷——但相對於 2.5 億美元的目標,你認為我們可能看到多少上行幅度?以及對 2027 年還有其他關於利多利空(puts and takes)的想法嗎?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. I would say, look, this is indicative of early cycle when you get to the midportion of the cycle and things are going, we still need some freight demand to accelerate. And if you get that acceleration, especially around rental, you're going to see that number spike up. So this is kind of typically the numbers you would expect early in the cycle. And then as rental accelerates, you're going to see that number increase significantly. And then it tapers off as you're approaching the peak of the cycle a little bit, the incremental improvements. But that's typical of what you should expect.
是的。我會說,這反映的是週期早期的典型狀況。當你進入週期中段、各項動能開始運轉時,我們仍需要貨運需求加速。如果出現那種加速,特別是在 rental 方面,你會看到那個數字明顯跳升。所以這大致就是你在週期早期會預期看到的數字。接著當 rental 加速時,你會看到那個數字顯著增加。然後當你逐步接近週期高峰時,增量改善會稍微趨緩。但這就是你應該預期的典型走勢。
Operator
Operator
Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.
Ravi Shanker,Morgan Stanley。
Nancy Hipp - Analyst
Nancy Hipp - Analyst
This is Nancy on for Ravi. It would be helpful to hear any thoughts into peak season strength across all three businesses.
我是代 Ravi 提問的 Nancy。想請你們分享一下對旺季(peak season)強度的看法,涵蓋三個業務會很有幫助。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Sure. So look, we -- as you've heard already on the call, we've seen good acceleration in demand for the services we offer. Especially in the quarter, we saw dedicated continue to build on the momentum we saw in Q2 as well as lease where we saw good activity. We hadn't seen that level of sales activity going back to post-COVID.
當然。你看——如同你在電話會議中已經聽到的,我們看到對我們所提供服務的需求有不錯的加速。特別是在本季,我們看到 dedicated 延續第二季的動能持續增長;同時在 lease 方面也看到良好的活動量。我們自 COVID 之後就沒看到過這樣的銷售活動水準。
So that was a good indication for the business. We have seen continued solid performance on the supply chain side, on the sales side. We did see our transactional businesses continue to improve. You saw used vehicle pricing get better. You also saw our rental utilization get back to normal levels, mid-70s. And at the end of the quarter, we were in the high 70s. We expect that to continue and spill over into Q4 as we even add more fleet.
所以這對業務而言是個很好的訊號。我們在供應鏈端、銷售端都持續看到穩健表現。我們也看到交易型業務持續改善:你看到二手車價格變得更好;你也看到我們的 rental 使用率回到正常水準,大約在 70% 中段。而在季度末,我們已經到 70% 高段。我們預期這會持續,並在我們增加更多車隊之際延伸到第四季。
So we're seeing increased demand on our contractual businesses, increased demand from some of our transactional businesses. And as you heard, we also saw better utilization of the lease fleet. So our lease customers are running more miles on their fleet, which should translate later on to more fleet additions as we move through the cycle.
因此,我們在合約型業務看到需求增加,在部分交易型業務也看到需求增加。而且如你所聽到的,我們也看到 lease 車隊的使用率更好。也就是說,我們的 lease 客戶在其車隊上跑了更多里程,這在我們走過這個週期的過程中,之後應該會轉化為更多的車隊增補。
Nancy Hipp - Analyst
Nancy Hipp - Analyst
Great. That's helpful. And then one more question on the dedicated side. I know revenue remains a bit under pressure from the lower fleet count. Are you seeing signs that customers are becoming more willing to commit to dedicated capacity? Or what needs to change for fleet growth to start turning positive?
很好,這很有幫助。再問一個關於 dedicated 的問題。我知道由於車隊數量較低,營收仍然有些壓力。你們是否看到客戶更願意承諾 dedicated 產能的跡象?或者要有哪些條件改變,車隊成長才會開始轉正?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. Just what we are seeing is actually more activity from dedicated capacity as the spot rate market has moved up and good quality capacity has been taken out of the market. They're coming to us looking for a high level of service at a reasonable price level. So we have seen a little bit of move back from that dedicated capacity space into our dedicated business.
是的。我們實際看到的是,隨著現貨運價市場走高、且市場上的高品質運力被吸收掉,dedicated 產能的需求活動變得更多。他們來找我們,是希望在合理的價格水準下獲得高水準的服務。因此我們確實看到 dedicated 產能領域有一些回流到我們 dedicated 業務的趨勢。
More importantly, what we continue to see is customers looking for specialized dedicated. We're seeing fleet conversions continue to accelerate in this market environment because the driver environment is getting tighter.
更重要的是,我們持續看到客戶在尋找更專業化的 dedicated。我們看到在目前的市場環境下,車隊轉換(fleet conversions)持續加速,因為司機環境正在變得更緊。
We're seeing increased cost in insurance claims and the rising cost of equipment, all those things are putting pressure, we could do it more efficiently and more effective for our customers. But I'll have Steve maybe add a little bit of color on what he's seeing in the dedicated space.
我們看到保險理賠成本上升,以及設備成本上漲;所有這些因素都帶來壓力,而我們能以更高效率、更有效的方式替客戶完成。不過我先請 Steve 也許補充一些他在 dedicated 領域看到的情況。
John Sensing - President - Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions
John Sensing - President - Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions
Yes. I'm going to add the pipeline remains healthy. We're seeing some good opportunities there. As John said, some of these customers traded cost for service earlier in the year. And last year, we're seeing that come back to us now as the tender acceptance rate for truckload is on the rise. So they want a service that they can count on. But again, our lost business is down year-over-year versus last year. So it should put us in good shape for '27.
是的。我補充一下:商機管線仍然健康,我們看到一些不錯的機會。如 John 所說,今年稍早以及去年,有些客戶以服務換取成本(trade cost for service),我們現在看到隨著整車運輸(truckload)的投標接受率(tender acceptance rate)上升,他們又回到我們這裡。所以他們想要一個可以信賴的服務。不過同時,我們流失的業務年對年相較去年是下降的。因此這應該會讓我們在 2027 年處於不錯的位置。
Operator
Operator
Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.
Brandon Oglenski,巴克萊。
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
I guess, John, can we unpack the capital priorities just given the returns that this business is putting off now, especially maybe in regards to M&A because we've seen some dislocation in some other competitive deals go through here recently. So how do you see that landscape unfolding from your perspective?
John,我想請你拆解一下資本配置的優先順序,考量到這項業務目前所帶來的回報,特別是可能在併購(M&A)方面,因為我們最近看到一些其他競爭性交易出現了某些錯位並完成交割。從你的角度來看,你如何看待這個市場格局接下來的演變?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. Well, we're in a different part of the cycle. And coming into this upturn, one of the things that we do have plenty of debt capacity on the balance sheet. If you look at our targeted leverage, we're on the low end of our target leverage of 250. So we have plenty of capacity to -- our first priority will be to continue to grow the fleet rebuild the rental fleet, which is down almost 30% from peak levels. So we're going to continue to deploy capital there. We're excited to deploy capital in high-return business, fleet growth that we know we could execute against.
是的。我們正處於週期的不同階段。進入這一波上行週期時,我們資產負債表上有相當充足的舉債能力。如果你看我們的目標槓桿,我們目前位於目標槓桿 250 的低端。因此我們有很大的空間——我們的第一優先會是持續擴大車隊、重建租賃車隊;目前租賃車隊較高峰水準下降了將近 30%。所以我們會持續在這方面投入資本。我們很期待把資本部署到高報酬的業務上,也就是我們確信能夠執行到位的車隊成長。
And then we'll look to opportunistic acquisitions. Obviously, for us, priorities include adding capabilities, whether it's on the supply chain side or value-accretive acquisitions that we could do and take advantage of opportunities that are in the marketplace.
接著我們會尋找機會型收購。顯然,對我們而言,優先事項包括補強能力,不論是在供應鏈端,或是能夠增值(value-accretive)的收購,讓我們能把握市場上的機會。
So we'll continue to look at those. That would be our top priorities, clearly to build a stronger foundation for the future. And then as we continue even in this higher capital spending cycle, we would continue to look to deploy capital and return capital to our shareholders.
所以我們會持續評估這些。這些顯然會是我們的首要優先事項,目的是為未來建立更強的基礎。然後,即使在這個資本支出較高的週期中,我們也會持續尋求部署資本並回饋資本給股東。
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Brandon Oglenski - Analyst
Appreciate that response. And then quickly on supply chain. I think you guys talked about potentially maybe a contract loss there, but also new contracts starting up. So how do you think about getting back on track to long-term growth targets and margin targets in that business?
感謝你的回覆。接著快速問一下供應鏈。我想你們提到那邊可能有一個合約流失,但也有新合約開始啟動。那麼你們如何看待讓該業務回到長期成長目標與利潤率目標的軌道上?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Well, yes, we've made mention about the lost automotive account. We finally, as you saw in the results, our year-over-year revenue growth was strong at high single digits of 9%. So that is -- we've lapped that account. We continue to see good demand in the marketplace, and we expect that business to continue to grow.
嗯,是的,我們確實提過流失的汽車客戶。正如你在結果中看到的,我們的年對年營收成長強勁,達到高個位數的 9%。也就是說——我們已經度過(lapped)那個客戶流失的比較基期。我們持續看到市場需求良好,並預期該業務會持續成長。
When you look at the bottom-line performance, this business continues to deliver at high single-digit targets. We had another good quarter, above 8%. And we expect that business to continue to deliver high single-digit targets through the year. But Steve, anything else to add there?
從獲利表現來看,這項業務持續達成高個位數的目標。我們又有一個不錯的季度,超過 8%。我們預期該業務在今年將持續交出高個位數的表現。不過 Steve,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
John Sensing - President - Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions
John Sensing - President - Global Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions
Yes, I would just add a couple of things. So John spoke about that lapped automotive loss last year. In that situation, they went away from dedicated and supply chain to truckload. We've seen through our pipeline, part of that opportunity coming back to us. So I think I said that earlier in the year. So we're really excited about that. I think, too, if you look at our pipeline, we're seeing really solid increases in CPG, industrial, health care and retail. So I think as John said as well, for us to get to low double digits, that will take M&A activity, but we had a really solid quarter.
是的,我補充幾點。John 談到去年那個已度過比較基期的汽車客戶流失;在那個情況下,對方從專屬(dedicated)與供應鏈方案轉向整車運輸(truckload)。我們從商機管線(pipeline)看到,其中一部分機會正在回流到我們這邊。我想我今年稍早也提過這點,所以我們對此非常興奮。另外,如果你看我們的管線,我們在民生消費品(CPG)、工業、醫療保健與零售領域都看到非常扎實的成長。我也同意 John 的說法,若要達到低雙位數成長,將需要併購活動(M&A),但我們這一季表現非常穩健。
Operator
Operator
Rob Salmon, Wells Fargo.
Rob Salmon,富國銀行。
Robert Salmon - Analyst
Robert Salmon - Analyst
We saw a real nice acceleration in the revenue per active in ChoiceLease. Can you give us a sense of what the roughly 200 basis point acceleration came from? Was this just contractual renewals with your annual rate increase, new business or something else?
我們看到 ChoiceLease 的每台在用設備(active)營收出現相當不錯的加速成長。你能否說明大約 200 個基點的加速主要來自哪裡?是合約續約搭配你們年度調價、新業務,或是其他因素?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Well, it's a function -- thank you, Rob. It's a function of two factors. One, obviously, as we renew the new equipment, you've got higher inflation on that equipment. And then we are making sure that our pricing discipline and hitting our target spreads is showing through. So you're getting the benefit of that. We've also had a record level of redeployment. So we put a lot more equipment to work, which has improved the overall performance of the portfolio of the business.
嗯,這是——謝謝你,Rob。這主要是兩個因素的結果。第一,當我們更新、續租新設備時,設備本身的通膨成本更高。第二,我們確保定價紀律、並達成目標利差(spreads),這些效果正在反映出來,所以你能看到其帶來的好處。我們也創下設備再部署(redeployment)的紀錄水準,因此讓更多設備投入運作,改善了整體投資組合的表現。
Robert Salmon - Analyst
Robert Salmon - Analyst
That's helpful. And then with the response to an earlier question, I think it was Scott, about the fleet, it sounded like there would be continued pressure in the near term. I'm curious if we can see sequential growth looking out to the fourth quarter within the ChoiceLease product given some of that new contract momentum you had talked about earlier on the call.
這很有幫助。接著,針對你先前回覆某個問題——我想是 Scott 問的——關於車隊,你的意思聽起來短期內仍會有持續壓力。我想了解的是,考量你在電話會議前面提到的新合約動能,我們是否有機會在第四季看到 ChoiceLease 產品出現季對季成長?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. I wouldn't say pressure, meaning downward pressure. Right now, we've kind of flattened out. You should see that flattening to uptick perhaps in Q4 and then continue as the new equipment starts arriving, we should expect Q1 and beyond that in '27 to continue to grow and accelerate.
是的。我不會說是壓力,意思不是向下壓力。現在我們大致已經趨於持平。你應該會看到第四季從持平到可能小幅上升;然後隨著新設備開始到位,我們預期 2027 年第一季以及之後會持續成長並加速。
Robert Salmon - Analyst
Robert Salmon - Analyst
And John, just as my final follow-up there, in terms of the growth, any sense of like what that can be? Is it -- should we be thinking about like low single-digit growth? Can it be better given the backdrop?
John,最後追問一下:就成長幅度而言,有沒有大概的概念?我們應該把它想成低個位數成長嗎?在這樣的背景下,是否可能更好?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. Right now, the business you've seen and overall, the business is growing at mid-single digits. That's the complement of all three product lines that Tom talked about. As we get in the up cycle, you're going to see an acceleration of the top line from rental. That's probably going to be the catalyst. You are going to see healthy growth from lease. I would expect that to be in the mid- to high single digits as we start growing that fleet. And then you're going to see SelectCare continue to deliver mid-single-digit growth based on the market conditions we have in front of us.
是的。目前你看到的整體業務成長大約在中個位數。這是 Tom 談到的三條產品線合計的結果。當我們進入上行週期,你會看到租賃(rental)的營收端加速,這很可能會是催化劑。租約(lease)也會有健康成長;隨著我們開始擴大車隊,我預期會落在中到高個位數。然後,基於我們眼前的市場條件,你會看到 SelectCare 持續交出中個位數成長。
Operator
Operator
Bascome Majors, Stephens Inc.
Bascome Majors,Stephens Inc.。
Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst
Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst
John, just under two months ago, I believe you guys commissioned an investor perception study of analysts and shareholders. And I know that's probably not complete yet, but if you could share any early findings that you've had from that engagement. What surprised you? What hasn't? And how is the Board and management thinking about incorporating that into the company's strategy going forward?
John,大約不到兩個月前,我相信你們委託進行了一項針對分析師與股東的投資人觀感研究。我知道那可能還沒完成,但如果可以的話,能否分享一些目前從該互動中得到的初步發現?有哪些讓你意外?哪些不意外?董事會與管理團隊又打算如何把這些結果納入公司未來策略?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes, Bascome, I have not seen the results of that or reviewed that. So it will be premature for me to comment on that. But I will tell you, look, I think, generally speaking, when we talk to shareholders and I think everyone has been very pleased with, number one, the execution of the strategy that we set out to go after. The business mix has really dramatically changed, has elevated, as we've talked about, the overall profitability and the resiliency of the model.
是的,Bascome,我還沒有看到或審閱那份結果,所以現在評論還太早。不過我可以說,整體而言,當我們與股東交流時,我想大家都對幾點非常滿意:第一,是我們對既定策略的執行力。業務組合確實出現了非常顯著的改變與提升;正如我們所談到的,這提高了整體獲利能力與商業模式的韌性。
I think one of the things that we're really proud of is we've been able to take that -- those asset-light businesses. We've more than doubled those businesses and have expanded margins, while at the same time, significantly improved the margins of our historically largest segment, which is fleet management. And we expect that to continue.
我認為我們非常自豪的一點是,我們能夠把那些輕資產(asset-light)業務做大——規模已經超過翻倍——並且擴大利潤率;同時也顯著改善了我們歷來最大部門,也就是車隊管理(fleet management)的利潤率。我們預期這會持續下去。
One of the things we're excited about for the future is really around how do we leverage our port-to-door solutions and continue to grow, and we're seeing early success with how do we grow our relationships, which are deeply rooted and they are long-lasting relationships with many of our customers where we can help them and solve some of their biggest supply chain challenges. So I think that will show through going forward in our strategy and what you hear from us. But as far as early indications from that report out, I don't have it. But clearly, I think we're going to hear good things about the execution from the team on the overall strategy.
我們對未來感到興奮的一點,主要在於如何運用我們的港到門(port-to-door)解決方案並持續成長;而且我們也看到早期的成功,體現在如何深化我們與客戶的關係——這些關係根基深厚且長期穩固——我們能協助他們解決一些最大的供應鏈挑戰。我想這些會在我們未來的策略,以及你們從我們這裡聽到的內容中逐步反映出來。但就那份報告的初步訊號而言,我目前還沒有。不過很明顯,我認為我們會聽到團隊在整體策略執行上的正面回饋。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Kauffman, Citizens Bank.
Jeff Kauffman,Citizens Bank。
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Congratulations. I want to get back to the growth question again. I know this has been answered a couple of different ways. But you had talked about an increase in demand, an increase in mileage, both contractual and transactional. I was wondering if I could get a little bit more of a feel for it just in terms of is it an equipment size that you're seeing stronger than the other? Is it an industry segment or two that's a little stronger than others? Is it geographic? Because based on your comments, it's across the board and kind of ubiquitous.
恭喜。我想再回到成長的問題。我知道這已經用幾種不同方式回答過了。但你提到需求增加、里程數增加,且同時包含合約型與交易型。我想更具體感受一下:你們看到是否有某種設備尺寸的需求比其他更強?是否有一兩個產業別比其他更強?或是有地理區域差異?因為依照你的評論,看起來是全面性的、幾乎無所不在。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. I will tell you, obviously, there's going to be unique circumstances out there, but I'll paint a broad-brush picture of what we're seeing in the landscape we are seeing customers add fleet, which we haven't seen in some time, Jeff. And when they're adding fleet, we're seeing additions across all three asset classes. We have seen on the dedicated side on specialized handling, we have seen higher demand for construction and on the industrial side, which is interesting.
是的。我會告訴你,顯然外面會有一些獨特情況,但我先用較宏觀的方式描繪我們所看到的情況:在目前的環境中,我們看到客戶在增加車隊規模,這是我們有一段時間沒看到的了,Jeff。而當他們增加車隊時,我們看到三大資產類別都有新增。我們在專用(dedicated)業務的專業化處理方面看到需求提升;在建築領域以及工業端也看到更高的需求,這點很有意思。
And then when you look at asset classes and asset class performance, I will tell you on rental specifically, we did see an acceleration in the tractor class in the quarter, and we're going to grow that tractor fleet by 10% as we move into next year by the end of the year. So that hopefully gives you a little bit of a broad perspective.
然後當你看資產類別及其表現時,我可以告訴你,就租賃(rental)而言,本季我們確實看到牽引車(tractor)類別加速成長;而隨著我們進入明年,我們將在年底前把牽引車車隊擴增 10%。希望這能讓你對整體情況有一個更宏觀的理解。
I would say lease and dedicated is pretty broad-based. We are seeing good activity on the industrial side on the dedicated sales activity. And then rental, we did see an acceleration in both tractors and trailers, which is indicative of maybe this freight market showing signs of life, which is one of the encouraging signs we saw in the quarter.
我會說,租賃(lease)和專用(dedicated)是相當廣泛的復甦。我們在專用銷售活動的工業端看到不錯的動能。至於租賃(rental),我們確實看到牽引車與拖車(trailer)都出現加速,這可能顯示貨運市場開始出現回溫跡象,這也是我們本季看到的令人鼓舞的訊號之一。
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
Jeff Kauffman - Analyst
No, that's very, very helpful. So with respect to that rental fleet, you had gone about kind of downsizing the ratio of tractors relative to trucks over the last year or 2. Right now, the rental fleet, at least on my numbers, if I combine the rental and the lease fleet, the rental fleet represents about 21% of that total. And normally, that ratio is closer to 25%.
不,這非常、非常有幫助。那就租賃車隊而言,過去一到兩年你們一直在縮減牽引車相對於卡車的比例。以我手上的數字來看,如果我把租賃(rental)和租約(lease)車隊合併,租賃車隊約占總量的 21%。而通常這個比例更接近 25%。
And tractors are going to be kind of tough to get over the next six to nine months just because of the EPA mandate. Do you have order slots already? Or is that why you're saying we'll get that tractor fleet up 10% by the end of next year? And then over what -- do we go back to 25% of the total fleet since a lot of rental is holding for lease customers where the equipment isn't ready?
而且由於 EPA 的法規要求,未來六到九個月牽引車會比較難取得。你們已經有下單名額(order slots)了嗎?或者這就是為什麼你說到明年年底牽引車車隊會增加 10%?另外,在總車隊中我們會回到 25% 嗎?因為很多租賃其實是在替租約客戶暫時持有,因為設備還沒準備好。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. We do feel confident we could grow that fleet. Everything you asked will be dictated by market conditions, right? If we continue to see demand, we're going to meet the demand. And we have not only the slots, but we obviously have a large fleet that we could redeploy equipment and do some things with our assets to meet some of that demand.
是的。我們確實有信心可以擴增那個車隊。你問的所有事情都會由市場狀況來決定,對吧?如果我們持續看到需求,我們就會滿足需求。而我們不僅有名額(slots),我們顯然也有一個龐大的車隊,可以重新調度設備,並透過資產配置做一些調整來滿足部分需求。
But what I will tell you is we've already taken action. I'll let Tom speak to it a little bit more in detail. We've taken action already in the quarter of starting to bring in equipment, and we made some orders, as you saw in our increase in our rental CapEx for the balance of the year, which we think are going to alleviate some of the some of the pinch points we're seeing in the marketplace.
但我可以告訴你的是,我們已經採取行動了。我讓 Tom 再更詳細說明一些。我們在本季已經開始把設備引進來,也下了一些訂單;正如你在我們今年剩餘期間租賃資本支出(rental CapEx)增加中所看到的,我們認為這些措施將緩解我們在市場上看到的一些瓶頸。
Utilization is not yet to screaming red levels like we saw post-COVID, but it will get there if we don't have fleet, and we're going to continue adding fleet to meet that demand. But Tom, maybe you could add a little bit of color on the fleet itself.
目前使用率(utilization)還沒有像疫情後那樣到達「亮紅燈」的程度,但如果我們沒有足夠車隊,它就會走到那一步;因此我們會持續增加車隊以滿足需求。不過 Tom,也許你可以就車隊本身再補充一些說明。
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Yes. Just to clarify a point, the 10% increase will be from Q3 to Q4. So we've made a pretty significant tractor order already. And your comment about availability of slots, that's not an issue. We were certainly able to order what we needed and have a pretty significant tractor fleet increase here in rental just in the fourth quarter.
是的。先澄清一點,這個 10% 的增加是從第三季到第四季。因此我們已經下了一筆相當可觀的牽引車訂單。至於你提到的名額(slots)可用性,那不是問題。我們確實能夠訂到我們需要的數量,並且在第四季就能讓租賃(rental)牽引車車隊顯著增加。
Going into 2027, obviously, we still have work to do on how much we'll continue to add to that fleet. The market will help dictate that. But to your point about the percent of the fleet, you might expect that to tick up a little bit, a couple of percentage points depending on what the market tells us. But looking at history, during the peak times, you typically do see that percentage increase a little bit on tractors, and I would expect to see the same thing, assuming the market indicators are there.
展望 2027 年,顯然我們還需要進一步評估會持續增加多少車隊,市場會在很大程度上決定這點。但就你提到的車隊占比而言,你可能會看到它上升一些,可能上升幾個百分點,取決於市場給我們的訊號。不過從歷史來看,在景氣高峰期,你通常會看到牽引車的占比略有提高;如果市場指標到位,我也預期會出現同樣情況。
Operator
Operator
Ben Mohr, Citibank.
Ben Mohr,花旗銀行。
Ben Mohr - Analyst
Ben Mohr - Analyst
Thanks for putting me in at the tail end here. My first question is on your used vehicle sales net target. Last quarter, you had it at $40 million for the year. And it sounds like from the previous conversation here, maybe we're targeting $55 million to $60 million given your $20 million increase in your '26 benefits.
謝謝讓我在最後加入。我第一個問題是關於你們二手車銷售淨額目標。上一季你們把全年目標訂在 4,000 萬美元。聽起來根據前面的討論,考量你們在 2026 年效益('26 benefits)增加了 2,000 萬美元,可能目標是 5,500 萬到 6,000 萬美元。
My question on that is kind of risk and puts and takes to that, given this quarter, the strength was driven by, as you mentioned, both volume and retail mix, 61% versus wholesale. So the question is kind of how should we think about that trending in the rest of the year? What's the risk on that? Could it be driven by the truck capacity dynamic turning in different direction? -- or EPA '27. Just wanted to get a sense of kind of risk to that and puts and takes.
我想問的是,這個目標的風險因素以及可能的增減項是什麼?因為本季的強勁表現如你所說,是由銷量與零售組合共同帶動,零售占比 61%,高於批發。那問題是:今年剩餘時間這個趨勢應該怎麼看?風險在哪?會不會因為卡車運力供需的變化而朝不同方向發展?——或是 EPA 2027。想了解一下相關風險以及可能的增減因素。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes, Ben, so you have it right. Coming into the quarter, we had signaled to about a $40 million used vehicle performance for the full year. That was up about $20 million year-on-year. We're now signaling up more closer, I would say, to $50 million than to $60 million as you called out. What we do see in the marketplace, which I think are favorable trends even despite some of the potential headwinds we could face is we continue to see market inventories decline.
是的,Ben,你理解得沒錯。進入本季之前,我們對外傳達的是全年二手車表現約 4,000 萬美元,較去年同期增加約 2,000 萬美元。現在我們的指引更接近 5,000 萬美元,而不是你提到的 6,000 萬美元。我們在市場上看到的情況,我認為即使面臨一些潛在逆風,仍是有利趨勢:我們持續看到市場庫存下降。
Our inventory continues to decline. We're now at the low end of our target range of 7,000. We're going to continue to sell through that inventory. I would suspect that it's going to give us the opportunity to continue to move our retail mix upward. Right now, we would expect to hopefully continue at the same level you saw in Q3.
我們自己的庫存也持續下降。目前已在我們目標區間 7,000 輛的低端。我們會持續去化這些庫存。我預期這將讓我們有機會持續提高零售占比。目前我們希望能維持在你在第三季看到的同一水準。
But as you get into next year, we're going to get into the 70s and get into a 70% level with our retail wholesale mix based on the inventory levels we have. So we have that lever for us based on the thin inventories we expect to face later next year. So that's probably the biggest, I would say, hedge against market forces. We continue to see capacity being taken out of the market.
但到了明年,我們會進入 70% 區間,讓零售/批發組合達到約 70% 的零售占比,這取決於我們現有的庫存水位。因此,基於我們預期明年稍晚將面臨的偏低庫存,這對我們而言是一個可運用的槓桿。這大概是我會說、用來對沖市場力量的最大因素。我們也持續看到市場運力正在被移出。
And as long as the spot rates remain elevated, I think there's going to be demand for equipment, and we have equipment ready to provide that service. So that's kind of how we're seeing it right now. And obviously, comes in February when we get back together, we'll give you a look at the full year for 2027.
只要即期運價(spot rates)維持在高檔,我認為設備就會有需求,而我們也有設備可以隨時提供服務。這就是我們目前的看法。當然,等到二月我們再聚在一起時,我們會給你們 2027 年全年的展望。
Ben Mohr - Analyst
Ben Mohr - Analyst
Great. That's very helpful for how we should think about modeling the next quarter and into next year. My follow-up question is on your -- what you're seeing as sort of in the road ahead, strength in your with your sort of three- to five-year contracts. Other truckload dedicated carriers have been seeing a ramp in their renewal rates for their contracts at the beginning of the year, kind of starting point at up low single digits to now. Many of them are seeing high single digit, low double digit. Are you -- can you say that you're seeing kind of a similar upward trend or better or worse? And so this will signify kind of more benefit to come in '27 and '28?
很好。這對我們思考下一季以及明年的建模非常有幫助。我的追問是關於你們未來道路上的情況——你們在三到五年期合約方面看到的強勁程度。其他整車(truckload)專用運輸承運商(dedicated carriers)在年初時,合約續約價格上調幅度從低個位數開始,現在很多都看到高個位數、甚至低雙位數。你們是否也看到類似的上行趨勢?是更好還是更差?這是否意味著 2027 與 2028 年還會有更多效益?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes, we're different. So we're not in that truckload carrier or dedicated capacity space like some of the competitors you alluded to. Most of our business is specialized dedicated, which is highly engineered solutions with specialized handling from our drivers in providing that service. So I would say they behave a little bit different from a pricing perspective because you are not trading price for service per se. The -- we've committed to a level of service that they expect.
是的,我們不太一樣。所以我們不像你提到的某些競爭對手那樣,處在整車承運或專用運力(dedicated capacity)的那個市場空間。我們大部分業務是專業化專用(specialized dedicated),也就是高度工程化的解決方案,並由我們的駕駛員提供專業化處理來完成服務。因此我會說,從定價角度來看,它們的表現會有些不同,因為你並不是在用價格去交換服務本身。——我們承諾的是他們所期待的一定服務水準。
What you should expect is continued discipline from us on pricing. And as wages and inflation continues to tick up, we do have the measures and structurally in our contract that gives us the benefit to be able to recoup those. We'll continue to sign good business because there's good activity in the marketplace. And as capacity tightens, we should be able to take advantage of those opportunities as the market develops here. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color on how we see Dedicated progressing.
你們應該預期的是,我們在定價方面會持續保持紀律。隨著薪資與通膨持續上升,我們在合約中確實有相關措施與結構性條款,讓我們能夠把這些成本回收回來。我們會持續簽下優質業務,因為市場上活動良好。隨著運能趨緊,市場在此發展的過程中,我們應該能夠把握這些機會加以利用。所以希望這能讓你們對我們如何看待 Dedicated 的進展多一些了解。
Operator
Operator
Scott Group, Wolfe Research.
Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
Just a couple of things. How are we thinking about impact of higher rates and I don't know, buy versus lease decisions, return targets, all that sort of stuff?
我有幾點想問。我們如何看待利率走高的影響?以及我不確定,買與租的決策、報酬率目標等等這類事情?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
When you talk about return targets, Scott, you're talking about returns on the overall business?
Scott,你提到的報酬率目標,是指整體業務的報酬率嗎?
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
Yes. Just does higher rates impact your ability to hit return targets and things like that? Interest rates?
是的。利率走高是否會影響你們達成報酬率目標之類的能力?利率方面?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. So yes. So look, for us, we continue to see that we're on pace of hitting our return targets, right, just to reiterate because I think it's important. We're in the early parts of the cycle. Our return on equity is in that 18% to 19% level.
是的。所以,是的。你看,對我們而言,我們仍然看到我們正按進度達成我們的報酬率目標,對吧,我再強調一次,因為我認為這很重要。我們正處於週期的早期階段。我們的股東權益報酬率(ROE)在 18% 到 19% 的水準。
Based on what we're seeing in the marketplace and some of the inflection points we discussed around that fleet management business, we're going to move closer to our long-term target of low 20s over the cycle. So we expect a progression there as some of that $250 million gets realized. We are staying disciplined around our pricing, both on the lease side. You saw rental pricing improve sequentially in the quarter. We would expect pricing and rental to continue to strengthen, which can provide potentially upside opportunities on some of those returns over the cycle.
根據我們在市場上看到的情況,以及我們先前討論過、圍繞車隊管理業務的一些拐點,我們將在整個週期中更接近我們長期目標的 20% 出頭。因此,隨著那 2.5 億美元中的部分逐步實現,我們預期會有一個向上的進展。我們在定價方面仍保持紀律,包含租賃端。你們看到本季租賃定價較前一季改善。我們預期定價與租金將持續走強,這可能在週期內為部分報酬率帶來上行機會。
And as you just heard from myself on Dedicated, we continue to see good activity there. Obviously, capacity is tight. There is opportunity for us to get some good rates while capacity remains tight. And I would expect both supply chain and dedicated to continuing to perform at their high single-digit targets.
而且正如你剛才聽到我在 Dedicated 部分所說,我們仍看到那邊活動良好。顯然,運能很緊。在運能仍然吃緊的情況下,我們有機會取得不錯的費率。我也預期供應鏈與 dedicated 兩個業務將持續達成其高個位數的目標。
Scott Group - Analyst
Scott Group - Analyst
Okay. Helpful. And then just last thing, if I can. How -- what's the impact of this still EPA uncertainty? Like are you -- your customers like hesitant to be placing orders for '27 now? Does this impact you? Just any thoughts on the EPA?
好的,很有幫助。最後一點,如果可以的話。這個仍然存在的 EPA 不確定性有什麼影響?例如你們的客戶是否因而對現在下 2027 年的訂單有所猶豫?這會影響你們嗎?對 EPA 有任何想法嗎?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Sure. I -- what we are seeing, I will tell you, I think we've called it out. We didn't see kind of this pre-buy surge activity with the change in the technology. But I do think Tom has some color around what we are seeing is price increases in the marketplace, which customers are feeling the impact of that, and we're helping them navigate through the increased pricing in the marketplace going into next year.
當然。我——我可以告訴你,我們看到的是,我想我們也已經點出來了。隨著技術變更,我們並沒有看到那種所謂的搶先採購(pre-buy)激增活動。但我確實認為 Tom 可以補充一些我們所看到的情況:市場上正在出現漲價,客戶正在感受到其影響,而我們正協助他們因應明年市場上更高的價格。
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Tom Havens - President - Fleet Management Solutions
Yes. I think it's pretty well understood at this point that price increases are coming in 2027. And despite that, there was not any significant prebuy activity. Some customers took advantage of it, but certainly not to any large extent. The nonperformance penalties, nonconformance penalties or NCPs are clear to the marketplace at this point. So we kind of know where -- what pricing will look like and what type of increases they're looking at.
是的。我想目前大家已經相當清楚,2027 年會有漲價。即便如此,也沒有出現任何顯著的搶先採購活動。有些客戶有把握機會,但當然規模並不大。未達標罰款、未符合規範罰款(nonconformance penalties)或 NCP,目前對市場而言已經很明確了。所以我們大致知道——定價會是什麼樣子,以及他們面臨的漲幅大概會是多少。
The only thing that's maybe unclear is what happens after the nonconformance penalties and the engine manufacturers put out their new technology engines. That's certainly not clear to the market. We probably won't know that until some point mid next year. We do have those conversations with our customers on a consistent basis and the message is generally act now because pricing is increasing. And I think that's well understood in the marketplace.
唯一可能還不清楚的是,在未符合規範罰款之後,以及引擎製造商推出其新技術引擎之後,會發生什麼事。這點對市場來說確實還不明朗。我們可能要到明年年中某個時間點才會知道。我們會持續與客戶進行這些對話,而訊息通常是:現在就採取行動,因為價格正在上升。我認為市場也很清楚這一點。
Operator
Operator
Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.
JPMorgan 的 Brian Ossenbeck。
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Just a real quick one here. With the sequential pricing up, it was 15% tractors and like mid-single digits for trucks, is that on a like-for-like basis? I know you talked about shifting the channel around a little bit. Sometimes there's some vintage movement there as well. I just wanted to see how clean of a read that is for the overall market.
我這邊很快一個問題。隨著定價較前一季上升,牽引車是 15%,卡車大概是中個位數,這是以同類可比(like-for-like)的基礎來看嗎?我知道你提到通路有做一些調整。有時候也會有車齡(vintage)變動的因素。我只是想確認,這對整體市場的解讀有多乾淨。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. Brian, thank you for the question. There is a little bit of noise there. I would say, like on the tractor side, you're getting the benefit of a shift in retail mix there. As we've gotten lighter on inventory, we were able to take advantage of that and sell more through our retail channel. So you are seeing that 19% be a little bit wind-aided by our retail mix activity in the quarter. Generally speaking, I would say we continue to see pricing on a like-for-like basis continue to improve across all asset classes. So that's really the underpinning performance of the overall market there.
是的,Brian,謝謝你的問題。那裡確實有一點雜訊。我會說,在牽引車那邊,你得到的是零售組合轉移的好處。隨著我們降低庫存,我們能夠把握機會,透過零售通路賣出更多。所以你看到的那個 19%,在本季有一點受到我們零售組合活動的順風加持。一般來說,我會說我們仍然看到在同類可比基礎上,各資產類別的定價持續改善。所以那才是整體市場表現的核心支撐。
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst
Okay. Any way to quantify roughly the wind assistance or the asterisk we should put on that? Or is it too difficult to tell?
好的。有沒有辦法大概量化一下那個順風助力,或是我們應該加上的註記幅度?還是太難判斷?
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
No, I would say, look, I think absent the retail wholesale mix shift, it will probably be high to low double digits on the tractor side. So it benefited by -- it's about 700 basis points that it benefited from.
不,我會說,你看,我認為如果沒有零售/批發組合的轉移,牽引車那邊大概會是高個位數到低雙位數的增幅。所以它受惠於——大概受惠了 700 個基點。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. John Diez for any closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。我想把電話交回給 John Diez 先生,請他做結語。
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
John Diez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director
Yes. Thank you, everyone. Appreciate taking an interest in Ryder and look forward to seeing you out on the road. Take care now.
是的。謝謝各位。感謝大家對 Ryder 的關注,也期待在路上與各位相見。各位保重。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。各位現在可以掛線。