先鋒自然資源 (PXD) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Pioneer Natural Resources Fourth Quarter Conference Call. Joining us today will be Scott Sheffield, Chief Executive Officer; Rich Dealy, President and Chief Operating Officer; Joey Hall, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Neal Shah, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

歡迎來到先鋒自然資源第四季度電話會議。今天加入我們的是首席執行官 Scott Sheffield； Rich Dealy，總裁兼首席運營官； Joey Hall，運營執行副總裁；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Neal Shah。

Pioneer has prepared PowerPoint slides to supplement their comments today. These slides can be accessed over the Internet at www.pxd.com. Again, the Internet site to access the slides related to today's call is www.pxd.com. At the website, select Investors, then select Earnings & Webcasts. This call is being recorded. A replay of the call will be archived on the Internet site through March 22, 2021.

Pioneer 準備了 PowerPoint 幻燈片來補充他們今天的評論。這些幻燈片可以通過 Internet 訪問 www.pxd.com。同樣，訪問與今天電話會議相關的幻燈片的 Internet 站點是 www.pxd.com。在網站上，選擇投資者，然後選擇收益和網絡廣播。此通話正在錄音中。通話重播將在 2021 年 3 月 22 日之前在網站上存檔。

The company's comments today will include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements and the business prospects of Pioneer are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results in future periods to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties are described in Pioneer's news release on Page 2 of the slide presentation and in Pioneer's public filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

公司今天的評論將包括根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述和 Pioneer 的業務前景受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果未來期間與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在幻燈片演示文稿第 2 頁的先鋒新聞稿和先鋒向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中有所描述。

At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Pioneer's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Neal Shah. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，為了開場白，我想把電話轉給先鋒的高級副總裁兼首席財務官尼爾沙阿。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Orlando. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

謝謝你，奧蘭多。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。

During today's conference call, we will be discussing our strong fourth quarter results, in addition to providing our 2021 outlook, detailing our strong financial position and discussing the initiation of our variable dividend policy. We will also include an update on the synergies we are achieving through our Parsley transaction and our significant ESG momentum, with new goals and targets set at the end of last year. After that, we will open up the call for your questions.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論我們強勁的第四季度業績，除了提供我們的 2021 年展望，詳細說明我們強大的財務狀況並討論我們可變股息政策的啟動。我們還將更新我們通過 Parsley 交易和我們顯著的 ESG 勢頭實現的協同效應，以及去年年底設定的新目標。之後，我們將打開您的問題電話。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Scott.

因此，我將把它交給斯科特。

Thank you, Neal. Good morning. We're going to start off on Slide #3. We had very, very strong free cash flow generation of approximately $300 million, driven by strong production, low CapEx due to continued efficiency improvements from the operational teams at all levels. We're announcing our formalized long-term variable dividend structure, which we have several slides. We'll be returning up to 75% of post base dividend free cash flow to shareholders, and we'll give you some examples later on, significantly improving return of capital to shareholders.

謝謝你，尼爾。早上好。我們將從幻燈片 #3 開始。由於各級運營團隊持續提高效率，我們產生了非常非常強勁的自由現金流，約為 3 億美元，這得益於強勁的生產和低資本支出。我們宣布正式的長期可變股息結構，我們有幾張幻燈片。我們將向股東返還高達 75% 的後基本股息自由現金流，稍後我們會給你一些例子，顯著提高對股東的資本回報。

We'll generate significant free cash flow generation of approximately $2 billion expected in 2021 at $55 WTI. Currently, the strip is about $60 WTI. So we hope to beat that, driven by peer-leading corporate breakeven in the high $20s per barrel range.

我們將在 2021 年以 55 美元的 WTI 價格產生約 20 億美元的可觀自由現金流。目前，該地帶的 WTI 價格約為 60 美元。因此，在同行領先的企業收支平衡處於每桶 20 美元高位的推動下，我們希望能夠打破這一局面。

Synergies from Parsley acquisition are exceeding previous guidance, especially on a recent bond deal, interest savings additional $25 million. And we expect to achieve better savings on G&A as we go into the second and third quarters. We expect the synergies there of about $100 million.

收購 Parsley 的協同效應超出了之前的指導，特別是在最近的債券交易中，額外節省了 2500 萬美元的利息。隨著我們進入第二和第三季度，我們希望在 G&A 方面實現更好的節省。我們預計那裡的協同效應約為 1 億美元。

We also expect to realize our full operational synergy run rate of $150 million per year by year-end '21, Rich will talk more -- give more detail about that, and fully benefiting 2022 and thereafter.

我們還希望在 21 年底之前實現每年 1.5 億美元的全面運營協同運行率，Rich 將談論更多——提供更多細節，並在 2022 年及之後充分受益。

We remain focused on environmentally responsible operations, with new emission reduction goals announced during our fourth quarter '20, with the release of our comprehensive sustainability report.

我們仍然專注於對環境負責的運營，我們在 20 世紀第四季度宣布了新的減排目標，並發布了我們全面的可持續發展報告。

Going to Slide #4. Our execution continued to remain strong, both total production and oil production in the upper half of our guidance ranges for both fourth quarter and for full year. We generated $700 million in free cash flow despite averaging $39 WT oil price during 2020. In addition, we're continuing to gain on lease operating expenses. They were down 15% from 2019 levels.

轉到幻燈片#4。我們的執行力繼續保持強勁，第四季度和全年的總產量和石油產量均處於我們指導範圍的上半部分。儘管 2020 年平均油價為 39 美元 WT，但我們仍產生了 7 億美元的自由現金流。此外，我們繼續從租賃運營費用中獲益。它們比 2019 年的水平下降了 15%。

Going to Slide #5, our outlook. In 2020, obviously, many E&Ps experienced year-on-year production declines. Pioneer continued its trajectory of strong performance, setting up a robust '21 and especially going into '22. As seen on Slide 5, we're expecting to generate approximately $2 billion in free cash flow at $55 WTI. Again, the strip is about $60, so we hope to beat that.

轉到幻燈片 #5，我們的展望。顯然，在 2020 年，許多 E&P 的產量同比下降。 Pioneer 繼續其強勁的表現軌跡，建立了強勁的 21 年，尤其是進入 22 年。如幻燈片 5 所示，我們預計 WTI 價格為 55 美元時將產生約 20 億美元的自由現金流。再一次，這條帶大約是 60 美元，所以我們希望能打敗它。

Our 2021 production outlook was impacted by the harsh winter weather encountered across the state of Texas last week. That left millions without power for an extended period of time. Our 2021 production outlook reflects these impacts, which amounts to approximately 8,000 barrels of oil per day on a full year basis, a little above 2% of our total oil production.

我們 2021 年的生產前景受到上周德克薩斯州惡劣冬季天氣的影響。這讓數百萬人在很長一段時間內沒有電。我們 2021 年的產量展望反映了這些影響，全年產量約為每天 8,000 桶，略高於我們石油總產量的 2%。

With our announced CapEx range of $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion, we're expecting to produce between 307,000 and 322,000 in '21, which includes the impacts of the winter storm and also excludes 11 days of Parsley production from January 4 through January 11, prior to the close. Our current production trajectory will drive strong exit-to-exit growth of approximately 8%, which sets up a very highly capital efficiency 2022 and beyond.

我們宣布的資本支出範圍為 24 億美元至 27 億美元，我們預計 21 年的產量將在 307,000 至 322,000 之間，其中包括冬季風暴的影響，並且不包括 1 月 4 日至 1 月 11 日期間 11 天的歐芹生產，之前到最後。我們目前的生產軌跡將推動約 8% 的強勁出口到出口增長，這將在 2022 年及以後實現非常高的資本效率。

Going into Slide #6, the framework for the variable dividend and discuss more detail over the next several slides. Top-tier inventory supports a low maintenance capital breakeven price of about $29 per barrel. And as you look, our maintenance capital is about $2 billion now with both companies combined together. At $55 oil, the 2021 plan generates $2 billion of free cash flow, that's WTI. As I said already, the strip is about $60 for the rest of the year, allowing for a substantial return of capital to our shareholders via a base and a variable, while concurrently further strengthening our balance sheet.

進入幻燈片 #6，可變紅利的框架，並在接下來的幾張幻燈片中討論更多細節。頂級庫存支持每桶約 29 美元的低維護資本盈虧平衡價格。如您所見，我們的維護資本現在約為 20 億美元，兩家公司加在一起。以 55 美元的油價計算，2021 年計劃產生 20 億美元的自由現金流，即 WTI。正如我已經說過的，今年剩餘時間的剝離價格約為 60 美元，允許通過基數和變量向我們的股東大量返還資本，同時進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

Going to Slide #7. We've been talking about this for 18 months. We've been exploring it with shareholders, both long term and short term, for about 18 months. We're happy to announce the initiation of our variable dividend policy, which significantly enhances our long-term shareholder returns. Specifically, after the base dividend is paid, we expect up to 75% of the remaining annual free cash flow to be returned to shareholders in the form of variable dividend, which will be paid out quarterly the following year.

轉到幻燈片#7。我們已經討論這個問題 18 個月了。大約 18 個月以來，我們一直在與股東進行長期和短期的探索。我們很高興地宣布啟動可變股息政策，這顯著提高了我們的長期股東回報。具體來說，在支付基本股息後，我們預計最多 75% 的剩餘年度自由現金流將以可變股息的形式返還給股東，這些股息將在次年按季度派發。

To further strengthening Pioneer's balance sheet, which we think is critical and has been critical long term for us, the 2022 variable payout will be up to 50% of the '21 post base dividend free cash flow. We believe that a strong capital return strategy, one that encompasses a stable and growing base dividend paired with a significant variable dividend, presents an attractive value proposition for our shareholders.

為了進一步加強先鋒的資產負債表，我們認為這對我們來說至關重要，而且從長遠來看一直很重要，2022 年的可變支出將高達 21 年後基本股息自由現金流的 50%。我們認為，強大的資本回報戰略，包括穩定且不斷增長的基本股息以及可觀的可變股息，為我們的股東提供了一個有吸引力的價值主張。

Now I'm going to go into some mechanics for '21 and '22 to make sure it's clear. In '21, let's assume we do generate the $2 billion of free cash flow. We have a base of about $500 million. We're left with $1.5 billion. We're going to split that 50-50 for '21 payable in '22. So $750 million will be for the variable and $750 million will go to debt reduction. The $750 million will be split equally into 4 equal payments paid in the quarter -- each quarter. It will be offset with a different part of the month of that quarter. So we want each shareholder receive 8 checks a year from Pioneer. The estimated dividend yield based on the current stock price is about 4.5% when you add the base plus the variable.

現在我將進入 21 年和 22 年的一些機制，以確保它是清楚的。在 21 年，假設我們確實產生了 20 億美元的自由現金流。我們的基數約為 5 億美元。我們還剩下 15 億美元。我們將在 22 年支付 21 年的 50-50 分攤。因此，7.5 億美元將用於變量，7.5 億美元將用於減少債務。 7.5 億美元將平均分成 4 筆等額付款，每季度支付一次。它將被該季度的月份的不同部分抵消。所以我們希望每個股東每年從先鋒收到 8 張支票。加上基數加變量，按當前股價估算的股息收益率約為4.5%。

Let's go to 2022. Right now, at the current strip, we expect to generate about $3 billion of free cash flow. Take away about $500 million for the base, you're left with $2.5 billion. And we split that 75-25. That's $1.9 billion as a variable and $600 million for debt reduction. That equates the current stock price to a 7.5% dividend yield. So we hope that is clear as we move forward in '21 and '22, those examples.

讓我們到 2022 年。現在，在當前的地帶，我們預計將產生約 30 億美元的自由現金流。去掉基地的大約 5 億美元，你還剩下 25 億美元。我們以 75-25 平分。這是 19 億美元的變量和 6 億美元的債務減免。這相當於當前股價的股息收益率為 7.5%。因此，我們希望隨著我們在 21 年和 22 年這些例子中前進，這一點很清楚。

Going to Slide #8, our long-term thesis. We've had this slide before. It remains the same, remains focused on driving free cash flow generations and creating significant value for shareholders. At the current strip, our long-term reinvestment rate is 50% to 60% of cash flow, which supports a program that delivers approximately 5% annual growth, adding 1 to 2 rigs per year long term. We expect this framework to generate approximately $16 billion in free cash flow during '21 through '26 at $52 WTI, which is greater than 50% of our current market capitalization. We believe this differentiated strategy positions Pioneer to be competitive across all sectors and a leader within our industry.

轉到幻燈片#8，我們的長期論文。我們以前有過這張幻燈片。它保持不變，仍然專注於推動自由現金流的產生並為股東創造可觀的價值。在目前的地帶，我們的長期再投資率為現金流的 50% 至 60%，這支持了一個每年增長約 5% 的計劃，長期每年增加 1 至 2 個鑽井平台。我們預計該框架將在 21 年至 26 年期間以 52 美元的 WTI 價格產生約 160 億美元的自由現金流，這超過了我們當前市值的 50%。我們相信，這種差異化戰略使先鋒在所有領域都具有競爭力，並成為我們行業的領導者。

Let me now turn it over to Rich.

現在讓我把它交給 Rich。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning. I'm going to start on Slide 9. And with the combination with Parsley, we are the only 100% focused Permian entity of size and scale. You can see from the math, that on a combined basis, we have a footprint of about 920,000 net acres, with a substantial inventory of high-returning wells. And importantly, 0 exposure to federal land.

謝謝，斯科特，早上好。我將從幻燈片 9 開始。通過與 Parsley 的結合，我們是唯一 100% 專注於二疊紀規模和規模的實體。你可以從數學中看出，在合併的基礎上，我們的佔地面積約為 920,000 英畝，擁有大量高收益油井。重要的是，零接觸聯邦土地。

Looking at the specifics for the 2021 plan. We plan to run on average 18 to 20 drilling rigs and 5 to 7 frac fleets. As you can see from the bar chart there, we are continuing to move towards larger pads, which helps drive efficiencies and can be applied to the Parsley acreage position. Other than the larger pad sizes in 2021, our development plan in 2020 is very similar in both lateral length and well mix compared to the 2020 program.

查看 2021 年計劃的具體細節。我們計劃平均運行 18 到 20 台鑽井平台和 5 到 7 個壓裂車隊。正如您從那裡的條形圖中看到的那樣，我們正在繼續轉向更大的墊，這有助於提高效率並可以應用於歐芹種植面積位置。除了 2021 年更大的焊盤尺寸外，我們 2020 年的開發計劃與 2020 年計劃在橫向長度和良好混合方面非常相似。

As Scott mentioned, the winter storm last week did impact our portfolio of production by approximately 30,000 barrels of oil per day. The vast majority of this production is back online, and we expect to see the remaining production back online in the next week or so.

正如斯科特提到的那樣，上週的冬季風暴確實影響了我們每天約 30,000 桶石油的生產組合。絕大部分作品已恢復上線，我們預計將在下週左右看到剩餘的作品恢復上線。

I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our employees, and especially our field employees, supply chain team and our service company partners for all their efforts to restore production and resume drilling and completion activities. They have done a terrific job, while many of them have been dealing with their own personal home repairs from being without power and having broken pipes. So I want to personally thank everyone for the hard work, and most importantly, for doing it safely.

我想藉此機會感謝我們所有的員工，特別是我們的現場員工、供應鏈團隊和我們的服務公司合作夥伴，感謝他們為恢復生產和恢復鑽井和完井活動所做的所有努力。他們做得非常出色，而他們中的許多人一直在處理自己的個人家庭維修問題，原因是斷電和管道破裂。所以我想親自感謝大家的辛勤工作，最重要的是，感謝大家安全地完成工作。

Turning to Slide 10. You can see, we are increasing our initial Parsley synergy target from $325 million annually, as Scott mentioned, to $350 million. In January, we completed the refinancing of the Parsley debt and saved, on an annual basis, $100 million of interest, exceeding our target of $75 million by $25 million. In aggregate, post the refinancing, this lowered Pioneer's overall average coupon interest rate to approximately 2%.

轉到幻燈片 10。你可以看到，正如 Scott 提到的，我們正在將最初的 Parsley 協同目標從每年 3.25 億美元增加到 3.5 億美元。 1 月，我們完成了 Parsley 債務的再融資，每年節省 1 億美元的利息，比我們 7500 萬美元的目標高出 2500 萬美元。總的來說，再融資後，這將先鋒的整體平均票面利率降低至約 2%。

We expect to realize the G&A synergies of $100 million in the first half of the year, and we're well on our way towards that. On the operational synergy target of $150 million, we expect to achieve that by year-end 2021, which will drive a recurring benefit beginning in 2022.

我們預計在今年上半年實現 1 億美元的 G&A 協同效應，我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。根據 1.5 億美元的運營協同目標，我們預計將在 2021 年底實現這一目標，這將推動從 2022 年開始的經常性收益。

To give a little color on the work in progress. We're in the process of optimizing our field production operations given the adjacent operations in the Midland Basin. We are consolidating our supply chain activities. And we're looking at further capital efficiency improvements associated with tank batteries, water systems and water disposal systems, just to name a few of the initiatives underway. As Scott will discuss as well, achieving these synergies is part of our 2021 compensation incentives. If you look at the right side of the page, you can see these synergies when coupled with our unmatched inventory of high-return wells, which supports our free cash flow model.

給正在進行的工作一點顏色。鑑於米德蘭盆地的相鄰作業，我們正在優化我們的現場生產作業。我們正在整合我們的供應鏈活動。我們正在考慮進一步提高與儲罐電池、供水系統和水處理系統相關的資本效率，這只是正在進行的一些舉措的一部分。正如斯科特還將討論的那樣，實現這些協同效應是我們 2021 年薪酬激勵措施的一部分。如果您查看頁面右側，您可以看到這些協同效應，再加上我們無與倫比的高回報油井庫存，支持我們的自由現金流模型。

Turning to Slide 11, controllable costs. We are continuing our journey to reduce our controllable cash costs. And you can see here, we've decreased them 23% in 2020 and expect to decrease them another 8% or so in 2021. These costs were comprised of cash interest, which I just mentioned being now at a low average cash cost of 2%. The second component is cash G&A, which we expect to be around approximately $1.20 per BOE in 2021. And then thirdly, our industry-leading horizontal LOE costs. We won't stop here, and we expect this trend to continue to improve through time.

轉到幻燈片 11，可控成本。我們正在繼續我們的旅程，以減少我們可控的現金成本。你可以在這裡看到，我們在 2020 年將它們減少了 23%，並預計在 2021 年將它們再減少 8% 左右。這些成本包括現金利息，我剛才提到現在的平均現金成本很低，只有 2 %。第二個組成部分是現金 G&A，我們預計到 2021 年每個 BOE 約為 1.20 美元。第三，我們行業領先的橫向 LOE 成本。我們不會就此止步，我們預計這種趨勢會隨著時間的推移而繼續改善。

So with that, I'm going to stop here and turn it over to Neal.

因此，我將在這裡停下來，將其交給 Neal。

On Slide 12, you can see Pioneer's premier asset-based position, positions us to the only E&P to have a corporate breakeven below $30 a barrel WTI within our peer group, enabling Pioneer to have a low reinvestment rate and drive significant free cash flow generation. This low breakeven price reflects the quality and the resilience of Pioneer's portfolio, underpinning our operational and financial strength. In addition, our unmatched high-quality asset base has no exposure to federal lands.

在幻燈片 12 上，您可以看到 Pioneer 基於資產的首要地位，使我們成為我們同行組中唯一一家公司盈虧平衡低於每桶 WTI 30 美元的 E&P，使 Pioneer 能夠擁有較低的再投資率並推動顯著的自由現金流產生.這種低盈虧平衡價格反映了先鋒投資組合的質量和彈性，支撐了我們的運營和財務實力。此外，我們無與倫比的優質資產基礎沒有涉及聯邦土地。

Turning to Page 13. To the right, you can see the graphic that demonstrates our best-in-class breakeven price with our low leverage that supports substantial return of capital to shareholders as well as providing Pioneer both operational and financial flexibility. We witnessed the benefits of our strong balance sheet during the downturn in 2020. And it was Pioneer's strong financial position that facilitated the refinancing of Parsley's debt from an average coupon of greater than 5% to an average coupon of less than 1.5%, driving our interest savings synergies of $100 million that Rich discussed earlier. With our investment framework, our net debt-to-EBITDA will continue to trend lower, while concurrently returning significant capital to shareholders through our base and variable dividends, creating value for shareholders while bolstering our fortress balance sheet.

翻到第 13 頁。在右側，您可以看到圖表展示了我們一流的盈虧平衡價格和我們的低杠桿率，支持向股東提供大量資本回報，並為 Pioneer 提供運營和財務靈活性。我們在 2020 年的經濟低迷時期見證了我們強大的資產負債錶帶來的好處。正是 Pioneer 強大的財務狀況促進了 Parsley 債務的再融資，從平均票息高於 5% 到平均票息低於 1.5%，推動我們Rich 之前討論過的 1 億美元的利息節省協同效應。憑藉我們的投資框架，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率將繼續下降，同時通過我們的基本和可變股息向股東返還大量資本，為股東創造價值，同時鞏固我們的堡壘資產負債表。

With that, I'll turn it over to Joey.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬伊。

Thanks, Neal, and good morning to everybody. I'm going to be starting on Slide 14. We came off our best year ever in 2019, and the drilling and completions teams committed to demonstrate similar gains in 2020. And the graph on the left shows they delivered on their promise. The chart on the right-hand side illustrates the significant progress also made in reducing our facilities costs. Our construction and operation teams partnered together to decrease the initial cost of our facilities by 40% since 2018. All of this has been accomplished without compromising our commitment to safety and protecting the environment. To the contrary, and most importantly, we improved on all safety metrics in 2020. These gains would not have been possible without the hard work of our entire staff, supply chain team, and great collaboration with our suppliers and service companies. Adding the complexities introduced by the pandemic, then this has been a truly remarkable year by any measure.

謝謝，尼爾，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 14 開始。我們在 2019 年取得了有史以來最好的一年，鑽井和完井團隊承諾在 2020 年展示類似的成果。左邊的圖表顯示他們兌現了諾言。右側的圖表說明了我們在降低設施成本方面也取得的重大進展。自 2018 年以來，我們的建設和運營團隊通力合作，將我們設施的初始成本降低了 40%。所有這一切都在不損害我們對安全和保護環境的承諾的情況下實現。相反，最重要的是，我們在 2020 年改進了所有安全指標。如果沒有我們全體員工、供應鏈團隊的辛勤工作以及與我們的供應商和服務公司的良好合作，這些成果是不可能實現的。加上大流行帶來的複雜性，那麼無論以何種標準衡量，今年都是真正非凡的一年。

Now moving on to Slide 15. I often get asked, what's driving all these improvements? We're certainly very proud of the engineers and field staff that have worked hard to make these gains possible, but they did so in partnership with our technology solutions and data science teams. Their expertise has allowed us to effectively use our extensive data set to make better decisions and to leverage technology. This represents a very small subset of examples in different areas where we have used advanced analytics and technology to improve performance.

現在轉到幻燈片 15。我經常被問到，是什麼推動了所有這些改進？我們當然為努力實現這些成果的工程師和現場工作人員感到非常自豪，但他們是在與我們的技術解決方案和數據科學團隊合作的情況下這樣做的。他們的專業知識使我們能夠有效地使用我們廣泛的數據集來做出更好的決策並利用技術。這代表了我們使用高級分析和技術來提高性能的不同領域中的一小部分示例。

Just a few examples as I move from left to right on the slide. By creating digital twins of our drill strings, we can use predictive analytics to push the performance envelope and reduce failures. Machine learning has allowed us to reduce cost by optimizing our proppant and fluid systems without compromising the deliverability of the stimulation or well performance.

我在幻燈片上從左向右移動時僅舉幾個例子。通過創建我們鑽柱的數字雙胞胎，我們可以使用預測分析來推動性能極限並減少故障。機器學習使我們能夠通過優化我們的支撐劑和流體系統來降低成本，而不會影響增產的可輸送性或油井性能。

Mobility projects have allowed us to put more applications in the hands of our field staff to ensure they have convenient access to the information they need to perform their jobs and minimize driving time and improve uptime. And to further progress our best-in-class emissions performance, we are deploying various sensor technologies that will allow us to detect emission events in real time and reduce cycle time for repairs. Ultimately, we are using our vast data set and the best available technologies to create more value while improving safety and environmental performance.

移動項目使我們能夠將更多應用程序交到我們的現場工作人員手中，以確保他們能夠方便地訪問執行工作所需的信息，並最大限度地減少駕駛時間並提高正常運行時間。為了進一步提高我們一流的排放性能，我們正在部署各種傳感器技術，使我們能夠實時檢測排放事件並縮短維修週期。最終，我們正在使用我們龐大的數據集和最佳可用技術來創造更多價值，同時提高安全性和環境績效。

Coming into 2021, our teams remain committed to keeping our people safe, reducing our environmental footprint and demonstrating top performance when compared to our peers.

進入 2021 年，我們的團隊將繼續致力於確保員工安全、減少我們的環境足跡並展示與同行相比的最佳績效。

Congratulations to the entire Pioneer team for their contributions to our safe and efficient execution in 2020. And I'll now turn it back over to Scott.

祝賀整個 Pioneer 團隊為我們在 2020 年的安全高效執行所做的貢獻。現在我將把它轉回給 Scott。

Thank you, Joey. On -- starting off on Slide 16, developing low-emission barrels. I think being in the Permian Basin and the actions that we have taken as a company, we are at the lowest -- one of the lowest CO2 emissions per BOE produced worldwide. This is an interesting chart that we have found. It's essentially all state-owned oil companies, majors, large independents. So it's the largest global operators in the world, making up over 64 million barrels of hydrocarbon liquids per day. Pioneer's operations produced barrels is one of the lowest associated CO2 emission intensity globally. Our low cost, low emissions barrels continue to be desired around the world.

謝謝你，喬伊。開——從幻燈片 16 開始，開發低排放桶。我認為，在二疊紀盆地以及我們作為一家公司採取的行動中，我們處於最低水平——是全球每桶油當量產生的二氧化碳排放量最低的國家之一。這是我們發現的一個有趣的圖表。它基本上是所有國有石油公司、專業公司、大型獨立公司。因此，它是世界上最大的全球運營商，每天生產超過 6400 萬桶碳氫化合物液體。 Pioneer 生產的桶是全球相關二氧化碳排放強度最低的企業之一。我們的低成本、低排放桶在世界範圍內繼續受到歡迎。

Jumping to Slide 17. We continue to make changes in our executive compensation going forward. One of the first things we've done, we did this last year, was tie myself, the CEO, for 100% on any LTIP based on performance. So it's all based on performance. So Pioneer has to perform for myself, the CEO, to be paid anything long term. We started that program last year. Right now, we're the only company that is doing this. No CEOs average about 51% in the S&P 500.

跳轉到幻燈片 17。我們將繼續改變我們的高管薪酬。我們所做的第一件事之一，我們去年做了這件事，就是根據績效將我自己，首席執行官，100% 地投入到任何 LTIP 中。所以這一切都基於性能。所以 Pioneer 必須為我自己（首席執行官）表現，才能獲得長期報酬。我們去年開始了這個項目。目前，我們是唯一一家這樣做的公司。在標準普爾 500 指數中，沒有 CEO 的平均持股比例約為 51%。

We added the S&P 500 index into our TSR peer group beginning in 2021. We've also added some new goals and increased some goals. We increased ESG and HSE from 10% to 20%. And We have now ROCE and CROCI combined weighting of 20%. And last year, we did remove any production and reserve goals going forward. As Rich mentioned, we do have 20% in strategic, he mentioned that. In that strategic, we do have to achieve our Parsley synergies to make that number work on any annual incentive in that regard.

從 2021 年開始，我們將標準普爾 500 指數納入我們的 TSR 同行組。我們還添加了一些新目標並增加了一些目標。我們將 ESG 和 HSE 從 10% 提高到 20%。我們現在的 ROCE 和 CROCI 合併權重為 20%。去年，我們確實取消了未來的任何生產和儲備目標。正如 Rich 提到的那樣，我們確實有 20% 的戰略，他提到了這一點。在該戰略中，我們確實必須實現我們的 Parsley 協同效應，以使該數字在這方面的任何年度激勵措施中發揮作用。

Going to Slide #18, strong focus on ESG. Pioneer continues to hold all pillars of ESG of great importance. Our new sustainability report was released last quarter and reflects our significant strides in reducing both Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas and methane emissions. It incorporates emissions intensity reduction goals on both. Inclusive of Parsley, we have a very low flaring intensity of 0.7% compared to the peers' average of 1.4%. We continue to promote a diverse workforce, which reflects community in which we live and work.

轉到幻燈片 #18，重點關注 ESG。先鋒繼續持有非常重要的 ESG 的所有支柱。我們上個季度發布了新的可持續發展報告，反映了我們在減少範圍 1 和範圍 2 溫室氣體和甲烷排放方面取得的重大進展。它結合了兩者的排放強度降低目標。包括歐芹在內，我們的燃燒強度非常低，僅為 0.7%，而同行的平均水平為 1.4%。我們繼續提倡多元化的員工隊伍，這反映了我們生活和工作的社區。

Finally, on the last slide, #19, we're committed to driving value for our shareholders, and we're looking forward to finally commencing with our variable dividend structure.

最後，在最後一張幻燈片 #19 中，我們致力於為股東創造價值，我們期待著最終開始我們的可變股息結構。

Again, thank you. We'll open it up now for Q&A.

再次謝謝你。我們現在將打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from John Freeman with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們將與雷蒙德詹姆斯一起接受約翰弗里曼的第一個問題。

I appreciate all the extra detail, Scott, on the variable dividend policy. And I just wanted to make sure -- just to clarify a few things. So when we think about like long term, the strategy to distribute up to 75% of the prior year's free cash flow after the base. And then -- but this first year, it will be basically up to 50% of the '21 free cash flow after the base. Just maybe sort of how to think about in any given year how you all are deciding between if it's 50% and 75%. Obviously, your leverage metrics are already really low. But just if there's anything that we should be thinking about how you'll are kind of coming to that conclusion.

斯科特，我感謝所有關於可變股息政策的額外細節。我只是想確定——只是為了澄清一些事情。因此，當我們考慮長期時，在基數之後分配高達 75% 的前一年自由現金流的策略。然後——但在第一年，它基本上將達到 21 年自由現金流的 50%。也許只是在某種程度上考慮在任何給定的年份你們如何在 50% 和 75% 之間做出決定。顯然，您的槓桿指標已經很低了。但是，如果有什麼我們應該考慮的，你會如何得出那個結論。

Yes. I think, first of all, John, we used the word up to give us flexibility. Our goal all along is to pay 50% for this year and 75% of the free cash flow for '22 and beyond. We do up to simply because of the volatility nature of our industry and of the commodity prices. So our intention -- true intention is to do 50% and 75% long term. That's our goal. And at some point, I didn't make this point, but if you look at the numbers over 6 years, our debt-to-EBITDA targets are -- even get better than 0.75. We actually, after a 6-year time period, we get our debt essentially down to 0. So at point -- at some point, the Board will reopen whether or not we continue at 75%.

是的。我認為，首先，約翰，我們使用“最多”這個詞來給我們靈活性。我們一直以來的目標是為今年支付 50%，為 22 歲及以後支付 75% 的自由現金流。我們這樣做僅僅是因為我們行業和商品價格的波動性。所以我們的意圖——真正的意圖是長期做 50% 和 75%。這就是我們的目標。在某些時候，我沒有提出這一點，但如果你看一下 6 年的數字，我們的債務與 EBITDA 的目標是 - 甚至好於 0.75。實際上，在 6 年時間之後，我們的債務基本上降至 0。所以在某個時候，無論我們是否繼續保持 75%，董事會都會重新開放。

We could go higher because at some point, if we have no debt, no balance sheet. And the reason we're doing that, as you have heard me talk, we're not a firm believer of buying back stock annually long term. But we think when you have extreme downturns like we experienced last year, which we had the firepower to buy a lot of stock at $50. So we'd like to have a great enough balance sheet to go into any future downturns to be able to buy back stock at 1/3 of the current price. And so you'll see our balance sheet get better and better over time. We just think it's better to have a great balance sheet due to the volatility of our industry. So I hope that helps.

我們可以走得更高，因為在某個時候，如果我們沒有債務，就沒有資產負債表。我們這樣做的原因，正如你聽到我所說的那樣，我們並不堅信長期每年回購股票。但我們認為，當你遇到像我們去年經歷的極端低迷時，我們有足夠的火力以 50 美元的價格購買大量股票。因此，我們希望擁有足夠大的資產負債表來應對未來的任何低迷時期，以便能夠以當前價格的 1/3 回購股票。所以你會看到我們的資產負債表隨著時間的推移變得越來越好。由於我們行業的波動性，我們只是認為擁有良好的資產負債表會更好。所以我希望能有所幫助。

That does. And then just a follow-up on how to think about the operational synergies, which I know a good bit of Neal Shah talked about would really occur in the second half of 2021. But as we think about sort of the different synergy kind of leverage, let's say, whether it's sharing the tank batteries, water infrastructure, some of the continuous acreage. Maybe just some additional details on sort of which of those you're able to kind of realize pretty quickly versus those that may take later on into the year to fully realize.

確實如此。然後是關於如何考慮運營協同效應的後續行動，我知道 Neal Shah 談到的很多事情會在 2021 年下半年真正發生。但是當我們考慮不同的協同效應時，比方說，無論是共享儲罐電池、水利基礎設施，還是一些連續的土地。也許只是一些額外的細節，關於哪些你能夠很快實現，哪些可能需要到今年晚些時候才能完全實現。

Yes, John. I think the field optimization in terms of just the operational side and the production side are things that we'll capture quickly, the supply chain stuff are things that I think we'll capture quickly in terms of just leveraging our suppliers and maximizing our best contracts. So I think those are the easier ones. I think as we've talked about the integration capital that we have in the budget, connecting the water systems, getting the disposal systems connected and optimizing the tank batteries, those will take a little bit longer. So those are probably more second half related and into 2022. So I think that's really the timing of those things of what kind of comes first and what kind of comes later.

是的，約翰。我認為就運營方面和生產方面而言，現場優化是我們將很快掌握的東西，供應鏈方面的東西是我認為我們將在利用我們的供應商和最大限度地發揮我們的最佳能力方面迅速掌握的東西合同。所以我認為那些是更容易的。我認為，正如我們已經討論了預算中的整合資本、連接供水系統、連接處理系統和優化儲罐電池，這些將需要更長的時間。所以這些可能更多地與下半年相關並進入 2022 年。所以我認為這真的是那些事情的時間安排，什麼樣的事情先發生，什麼樣的事情發生在以後。

And up next, we'll hear from Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將聽取高盛的布賴恩·辛格 (Brian Singer) 的意見。

My first question is with regards to the reserve report. You had substantial upward revisions in natural gas and NGLs. You had downward revisions to oil. I realize there may be price adjustments driving some of this. And I wondered if you could comment on the drivers of the reserve report and the revisions beyond price. And what implications, if any, there are for Pioneer's production mix in the area and the ratio going forward as what get us (inaudible)?

我的第一個問題是關於儲備報告。您對天然氣和 NGL 進行了大幅上調。你對石油進行了向下修正。我意識到可能會有價格調整推動其中的一些。我想知道你是否可以評論儲備報告的驅動因素和價格以外的修訂。如果有的話，對於先鋒在該地區的生產組合和未來的比例有什麼影響（聽不清）？

Yes, Brian. Great question. I think as you mentioned, clearly, oil prices were a driver, which I'll get on to the NGL and gas ones. But as you know, oil prices, I guess using the SEC pricing, was down 30% from 2019 to 2020 and start from $56 WTI down to about $40 WTI. So that's really driving the negative revisions on oil for the most part. When you look at the positive revisions that we're seeing on gas and NGL, it's really coming from a couple of things. One is just our enhanced completions continue to improve our fracture networks. And so that's leading to better recoveries from the wells, not only on oil, but NGLs and gas as well. We've also seen improved infrastructure out there, and so better capacity, which has reduced line pressures to allow more gas to flow, and therefore, added more NGL and gas reserves. So if you kind of strip those out, that F&D that was in the low $4s, probably be moving closer to $7. And so I think that's kind of the background of what the reserve changes were during the year.

是的，布萊恩。很好的問題。我認為正如你提到的，很明顯，油價是一個驅動因素，我將繼續討論 NGL 和天然氣價格。但正如你所知，我猜使用美國證券交易委員會的定價，油價從 2019 年到 2020 年下跌了 30%，從 56 美元的 WTI 開始跌至約 40 美元的 WTI。所以這在很大程度上推動了對石油的負面修正。當您查看我們在天然氣和 NGL 方面看到的積極修正時，它確實來自幾件事。一個是我們加強完井繼續改善我們的裂縫網絡。因此，這不僅可以提高油井的採收率，還可以提高液化天然氣和天然氣的採收率。我們還看到那裡的基礎設施得到改善，因此產能更高，這降低了管線壓力以允許更多的天然氣流動，因此增加了更多的液化天然氣和天然氣儲量。因此，如果您將這些剔除掉，那麼處於 4 美元低位的 F&D 可能會接近 7 美元。因此，我認為這就是當年儲備金變化的背景。

And I think in terms of long term, you're thinking in terms of long-term mix. I think we've been running in that, call it, 57%, 58% range on oil. And we still anticipate that to be -- longer term at this lower growth rate to be the right level.

而且我認為就長期而言，您正在考慮長期組合。我認為我們一直在運行，稱之為 57%、58% 的石油範圍。我們仍然預計，在這種較低的增長率下，長期來看是正確的水平。

Great. And then my follow-up, in risk of Scott of asking a question that I think you've been asked a few times over the last couple of months. When you think about where production this year is going to exit, I think you said it could be up -- you might have said up about 8% -- to 8%, but something that's above the 5% threshold. The plan, when you announced it, you had some materially lower oil price views than where we're at today. And I just wonder if -- how you're thinking about that flexibility into 2022 and the torque between growing at an above 5% rate versus reducing or potentially reducing activity to increase free cash flow and stick within the 5%.

偉大的。然後是我的後續行動，冒著斯科特問一個我認為你在過去幾個月裡被問過幾次的問題的風險。當你考慮今年的生產將退出哪裡時，我想你說過它可能會上升——你可能會說上升約 8%——到 8%，但高於 5% 的門檻。該計劃，當你宣布它時，你對油價的看法比我們今天所處的位置要低得多。我只是想知道，您是如何考慮到 2022 年的這種靈活性，以及以超過 5% 的速度增長與減少或可能減少活動以增加自由現金流並保持在 5% 以內之間的扭矩。

Brian, I still are -- we're committed to the long-term growth rate starting in '22 and beyond of about 5%. Some years, we may be 6% or 7%. Some years, we'll be 3% or 4%. And unless we get into another extreme downturn, we have the flexibility to go back to 0 growth, like we did in 2020 or '21, too. And so we're not going to let the growth rate jump up. If it turns out, we're achieving -- if Joey and his team continue to achieve great capital efficiencies, and it looks like we're going to grow 8% to 10% in '22, we're going to dial back to capital going into '22.

布賴恩，我仍然是——我們致力於實現從 22 世紀開始的約 5% 及以後的長期增長率。有些年份，我們可能是 6% 或 7%。有幾年，我們會是 3% 或 4%。除非我們陷入另一場極端低迷，否則我們可以靈活地回到零增長，就像我們在 2020 年或 21 年所做的那樣。所以我們不會讓增長率跳起來。如果事實證明，我們正在實現——如果喬伊和他的團隊繼續實現巨大的資本效率，並且看起來我們將在 22 年增長 8% 到 10%，我們將撥回資本進入'22。

And next, we'll take a question from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

接下來，我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai 的提問。

I think just following up on the response to John's question. You mentioned getting to net 0, and I think -- or sorry, not 0, getting the net debt of being 0. And I think you said 6 years. And at what point do you consider the company to be under levered? Is it at 0 net debt? Is it at 0.5, 0.25? So how are you thinking about that level?

我想只是跟進對 John 問題的回應。你提到達到淨 0，我認為 - 或者抱歉，不是 0，淨債務為 0。我想你說的是 6 年。您認為公司在什麼時候槓桿不足？淨債務為 0 嗎？是0.5、0.25嗎？那麼你如何看待這個水平？

I mean at this point in time, seeing 3 downturns in 11 years, to me, I just think it's better to have the best balance sheet in the business. It gives you so much flexibility. We have choices like -- I gave one choice. We have 0 debt. We can buy back stock in extreme downturns. If the Board wants to continue a high variable dividend for a year or 2, even though our free cash flow may not be as strong, they have that flexibility. So it gives you so many more choices.

我的意思是，在這個時間點，在 11 年中經歷了 3 次衰退，對我來說，我只是認為擁有業內最好的資產負債表會更好。它給了你很大的靈活性。我們有這樣的選擇——我給了一個選擇。我們有0債務。我們可以在極度低迷時回購股票。如果董事會希望在一年或兩年內繼續派發高可變股息，即使我們的自由現金流可能不那麼強勁，他們也有這種靈活性。所以它給了你更多的選擇。

Sticking -- I mean we thought we had a great balance sheet for '20, and we were even afraid to buy back our stock at $50. So we had no idea how long the downturn is going to occur. So I just -- I've gone -- I've probably been through more downturns than any CEO out there. And I just think it's better to have a great balance sheet, an even better balance sheet. So we have the flexibility also, as I said, to take the 75% up higher the Board does to 80% or 90% or 95% or 100%. So we -- you have so many more choices when you have even a better balance sheet than debt-to-EBITDA of 0.75. So we don't have a stated target. I prefer to have -- eventually, at some point in time, 0 debt would be my ideal target So...

堅持——我的意思是我們認為我們在 20 年的資產負債表很好，我們甚至不敢以 50 美元的價格回購我們的股票。所以我們不知道經濟衰退會持續多久。所以我只是 - 我已經走了 - 我可能比那裡的任何首席執行官都經歷過更多的低迷時期。而且我只是認為擁有出色的資產負債表會更好，甚至更好的資產負債表。因此，正如我所說，我們也可以靈活地將董事會所做的 75% 提高到 80% 或 90% 或 95% 或 100%。所以我們——當你的資產負債表比 0.75 的債務對 EBITDA 更好時，你有更多的選擇。所以我們沒有明確的目標。我更願意 - 最終，在某個時間點，零債務將是我的理想目標所以......

Okay. Options are good. We like that. And then my follow-up is just on hedges. And so how does -- your new kind of net debt projections, how does that factor into your hedge philosophy going forward? Could we see less hedging? Because I know we're kind of walking a fine line here in some respects. But generally, hedges are for risk protection, balance sheet protection. And generally, we see companies with the better balance sheets having less hedges. So that reserves some more upside because you have the balance sheet for protection. So just wondering if your hedge philosophy is evolving going forward as well.

好的。選項很好。我們喜歡這樣。然後我的後續行動只是關於對沖。那麼 - 你的新淨債務預測如何，這如何影響你未來的對沖理念？我們能看到更少的對沖嗎？因為我知道我們在某些方面有點走錯了路。但一般來說，對沖是為了風險保護，資產負債表保護。一般來說，我們看到資產負債表較好的公司對沖較少。這樣就保留了更多的上行空間，因為你有資產負債表來保護。所以只是想知道你的對沖理念是否也在不斷發展。

It's still evolving. The big change, we used to spend 100% of our CapEx. Now we're only spending 50% to 60% of our cash flow as CapEx. And so that's a big change. We may hedge. We may limit it just to protect that going forward. We may hedge enough to protect the base dividend. But because the market is in extreme -- the way Saudi and OPEC has engineered this latest rise, it's in extreme backwardation. And the volatility and less liquidity in the market makes it tough to do any floors, to do any collars. So when you used to be able to do a collar on each side of the strip, $5 on each side or $10, so they give you very little upside anymore.

它仍在發展。最大的變化是，我們曾經花費 100% 的資本支出。現在我們只將 50% 到 60% 的現金流用作資本支出。所以這是一個很大的變化。我們可以對沖。我們可能會限制它只是為了保護它向前發展。我們可能會進行足夠的對沖以保護基本股息。但由於市場處於極端狀態——沙特和歐佩克設計了最近的上漲，所以它處於極端逆價狀態。市場的波動性和流動性較低使得很難做任何地板，做任何衣領。所以當你過去可以在帶子的每一側做一個領子時，每邊 5 美元或 10 美元，所以它們給你帶來的好處就很少了。

So it's really -- as long as it's an extreme backwardation, we'll probably see us do less hedging. And then lastly, the variable dividend is something that's going directly into the shareholder base. So if we try to hedge that guess, it's a direct reflection on what happens to that variable dividend. And so I'm going to guess, long term, we're probably going to do less. But at the same time, we continue to see spikes or the backwardation that's taken out of the market, you may see us do a little bit more. So we're going to remain opportunistic.

所以它真的 - 只要它是一個極端的落後，我們可能會看到我們做更少的對沖。最後，可變股息直接進入股東基礎。因此，如果我們試圖對沖這種猜測，它直接反映了可變紅利會發生什麼。所以我猜，從長遠來看，我們可能會做得更少。但與此同時，我們繼續看到市場出現飆升或現貨溢價，你可能會看到我們做得更多。所以我們將保持機會主義。

And our next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

Scott, Rich, I was wondering if you could maybe help us better understand the shaping of the 2021 production and CapEx profile just given some of the weather disruptions that you highlighted. And that -- and we're estimating, based on that 8% exit rate, we had around [3.35] oil for 4Q. So I just wonder if you could walk through the progression.

斯科特，里奇，我想知道你是否可以幫助我們更好地了解 2021 年生產和資本支出概況的形成，只是考慮到你強調的一些天氣中斷。而且 - 我們估計，根據 8% 的退出率，我們在第四季度有大約 [3.35] 的石油。所以我只是想知道你是否可以完成整個過程。

Yes. Arun, I think when we look at it, setting aside the first quarter because of the weather impacts, we'd said that it was going to be more towards the back end just because of the rig ramp that started late last year and just takes 180 days to kind of do that. But I think as you move into the second quarter through the fourth quarter, it is a ratable increase in production over that 3-quarter time period.

是的。 Arun，我認為當我們審視它時，由於天氣影響而擱置第一季度，我們曾說過它會更接近後端，只是因為去年年底開始的鑽機爬坡，只需要180 天可以做到這一點。但我認為，當你進入第二季度到第四季度時，在這三個季度的時間段內，產量將出現顯著增長。

And I think your exit rate is, in the ballpark, it may be slightly higher than that, but it's in that zip code. And then on capital, I think we were pretty good about getting the activity to the average rig and frac fleet rates starting in January. So I would think your capital is pretty ratable throughout the year. So I think really from a perspective that it's ratable on capital and ratable Q3 -- or Q2 through Q4 on production.

而且我認為你的退出率是，在球場上，它可能略高於那個，但它在那個郵政編碼中。然後在資本方面，我認為我們在從 1 月份開始將活動提高到平均鑽井平台和壓裂船隊率方面做得非常好。所以我認為你的資本全年都很穩定。所以我認為真的從一個角度來看，它在資本和第三季度——或第二季度到第四季度的生產方面是有評級的。

Great. Great. And just my follow-up. One of the questions that's kind of come in is Pioneer obviously delivered on legacy in terms of the fourth quarter. But some of the Parsley volumes as you 8-K-ed a few weeks back were a little bit light of what the market was thinking. Have you done a bit of a postmortem there? Any conclusions there regarding the Parsley 4Q performance?

偉大的。偉大的。只是我的後續行動。出現的問題之一是先鋒在第四季度顯然是在遺留問題上交付的。但幾週前 8-K-ed 時，歐芹的一些成交量略微反映了市場的想法。你在那裡做過一些屍檢嗎？關於 Parsley 4Q 性能的任何結論？

Yes. A couple of things. One, they sold their Big Tex acre, had about 1,400 barrels a day of oil production associated with it. So that was one piece of it. And then I think the other piece of it was just reduced activity. They just didn't get the activity started back up on the frac fleet quick enough. And so they had a limited number of pops in the fourth quarter relative to what they had in the third quarter. And so it really was just production just didn't come -- stay at that level given the decline. And so really, that's -- our assessment was just really driven by activity levels, but the well performance has been fine. It's nothing that, it just was activity.

是的。幾件事。第一，他們出售了他們的 Big Tex 英畝土地，每天生產約 1,400 桶與之相關的石油。所以這是其中的一部分。然後我認為它的另一部分只是減少了活動。他們只是沒有足夠快地讓壓裂車隊重新開始活動。因此，與第三季度相比，他們在第四季度的流行音樂數量有限。因此，這真的只是生產沒有來——鑑於下降，保持在那個水平。所以真的，那是——我們的評估真的是由活動水平驅動的，但良好的表現一直很好。沒什麼，這只是活動。

Got it. Got it. And that's all baked into your updated forecast, right?

知道了。知道了。這一切都包含在您更新的預測中，對嗎？

That's correct, Arun.

沒錯，阿倫。

And the next question will come from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

下一個問題將來自 Charles Meade 和 Johnson Rice。

I apologize for belaboring this point a little bit. But on -- again, the shape of the '21 kind of production curve, it looks to me like you guys are going to have -- obviously, there's going to be a big bounce back. And it's not really a valid comparison to go 2Q versus 1Q because of all the weather downtime. But it looks like in the back half of the year, you guys are going to be showing 3% to 4% sequential quarterly growth. Is that kind of close to what you guys are looking at internally?

我很抱歉對這一點進行了詳細說明。但是，關於 21 年那種生產曲線的形狀，在我看來你們將擁有 - 顯然，將會有一個很大的反彈。由於所有的天氣停機，將第二季度與第一季度進行比較並不是真正有效的比較。但看起來在今年下半年，你們將顯示出 3% 到 4% 的連續季度增長。這與你們內部所看到的很接近嗎？

It seems a little high to me, but just because I think the exit-to-exit that Scott got talked about was kind of 10%. So it would seem to be slide. But in general, I mean, it's directionally in the right place.

這對我來說似乎有點高，但只是因為我認為斯科特談到的退出到退出有點 10%。所以它似乎是幻燈片。但總的來說，我的意思是，它的方向是正確的。

Got it. And then my second question, this isn't really a new one for you guys, but it's highlighted again by the 5% CapEx allocation to the Delaware. That -- again, it's not new. That kind of seems like it either needs to grow or -- as a percentage term, you guys would be seller. So can you offer us any kind of refresh to your thinking on how the Delaware is going to play in your asset portfolio longer term?

知道了。然後我的第二個問題，這對你們來說並不是一個新問題，但它再次被特拉華州 5% 的資本支出分配所強調。再次強調，這不是新的。這種情況似乎需要增長，或者——從百分比來看，你們會成為賣家。那麼，您能否為我們提供任何關於特拉華州將如何在您的資產組合中長期發揮作用的想法？

Yes. I think, Charles, it's -- as we've talked about before, Delaware acreage is very attractive for a number of reasons. There is a higher oil cut that's there. We have a high NRI and we've got good infrastructure over there. So really, the 5% for 2021 is really driven by the program that Parsley had outlined early in the year. And so we will be looking at that program. Given the run-up in oil prices, the economics are very favorable for Delaware. And so we'll look at how do we, back half of the year or into 2022, reallocate capital from Midland over to the Delaware. So we're still extremely pleased with that acreage and look forward to developing it as we get a chance to get our hands on it and move forward.

是的。我認為，查爾斯，正如我們之前談到的那樣，特拉華州的土地面積非常有吸引力，原因有很多。那裡的石油含量更高。我們的 NRI 很高，那裡的基礎設施也很好。所以說真的，2021 年的 5% 確實是由 Parsley 在今年年初概述的計劃推動的。因此，我們將研究該程序。鑑於油價上漲，特拉華州的經濟狀況非常有利。因此，我們將研究如何在今年下半年或 2022 年之前將資本從米德蘭重新分配到特拉華州。因此，我們仍然對這片土地感到非常滿意，並期待著在我們有機會獲得它並向前邁進時對其進行開發。

And our next question will come from Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Scott Gruber。

First question here on LOE. Will the storm have any material impact on 1Q LOE? And then, as production normalizes into 2Q, full contribution from Parsley, how should we think about LOE in 2Q in the second half? Are there any extra production costs early on as you integrate Parsley that's not captured in the incremental CapEx? And if so, how those roll off?

關於 LOE 的第一個問題。風暴會對 1Q LOE 產生任何實質性影響嗎？然後，隨著生產正常化到 2Q，Parsley 的全部貢獻，我們應該如何考慮下半年 2Q 的 LOE？在您集成 Parsley 時，早期是否有任何額外的生產成本未包含在增量資本支出中？如果是這樣，那些是如何滾動的？

Yes. I think if you look at our LOE guidance for the first quarter, we did adjust that up about $0.25 a BOE, just to take into account the repairs that we're seeing on -- they're minor in the grand scheme of things, but repairs on our wells and facilities due to the storm. And so we did factor that into our first quarter guidance range. And so if you take that range and back it down $0.25 per BOE for the Q2 and beyond, that will give you a good guidance range.

是的。我想如果你看一下我們第一季度的 LOE 指導，我們確實將其調整為每桶油當量 0.25 美元，只是為了考慮到我們正在看到的維修——它們在宏偉的計劃中是次要的，但由於暴風雨，需要維修我們的水井和設施。因此，我們確實將其納入了我們的第一季度指導範圍。因此，如果您採用該範圍並將第二季度及以後的每桶油當量降低 0.25 美元，這將為您提供一個很好的指導範圍。

Got you. And any kind of incremental process we should be thinking of kind of above and beyond the incremental CapEx that made the production here early on the portion?

明白了我們應該考慮的任何一種增量過程都超出了增量資本支出，使這部分的早期生產？

No, I don't think so. Scott, I think that we wouldn't anticipate any.

不，我不這麼認為。斯科特，我認為我們不會有任何期待。

Got you. And then just a follow-up here on simul-frac. A few of your peers have gotten excited about the technique and the opportunity to drive another leg here of completion efficiency gains. Can you talk about your interest in the technique and potential deployment?

明白了然後只是關於 simul-frac 的跟進。您的一些同行對這項技術感到興奮，並且有機會在這裡推動完成效率提升的另一條腿。你能談談你對這項技術和潛在部署的興趣嗎？

Scott, this is Joey. We actually just finished our first simul-frac right before the winter storm hit. Great success there. And we have plans to do more as the year goes on and then feather them into our operations over time.

斯科特，這是喬伊。實際上，就在冬季風暴襲來之前，我們剛剛完成了第一次模擬壓裂。那裡取得了巨大的成功。隨著時間的推移，我們計劃做更多的事情，然後隨著時間的推移將它們納入我們的運營。

Okay. Any color on kind of rates of efficiency improvement or savings on the D&C side in your first program?

好的。在您的第一個項目中，D&C 方面的效率提高率或節省率有何不同？

Yes. From a -- of course, we just completed it so I don't have all the assessment on the cost side. But from a time perspective, we did reduce the typical time that we would take to do a 4-well pad by about 1/3. So significantly reduced the amount of time on location. So we'll continue to evaluate that. We'll get a look at what the cost savings were, which, of course, will be material, and then we'll continue to evolve that into our operations.

是的。從——當然，我們剛剛完成它，所以我沒有在成本方面進行所有評估。但從時間的角度來看，我們確實將製作 4 孔板所需的典型時間減少了大約 1/3。因此大大減少了在現場的時間。因此，我們將繼續對此進行評估。我們將看看節省了多少成本，當然，這將是實質性的，然後我們將繼續將其發展到我們的運營中。

And next, we'll hear from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將聽取美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 的意見。

Scott, first of all, I think the way you've laid out this morning is really pretty present. So congratulations on the framework consumers that Shah has got his fingerprints all over this. So congratulations, guys, on laying this out. My question is really a couple of things about the longer term. You've talked about 5% plus as a growth trajectory. I just want to make sure that, that hasn't changed with the 75% of the free cash beyond the dividend because it's probably a bit more than market is expecting. I'm just wondering what that means then for the 5% cost? That's my first question.

斯科特，首先，我認為你今天早上佈置的方式非常現實。所以祝賀框架用戶，Shah 已經在這方面得到了他的指紋。伙計們，恭喜你解決了這個問題。我的問題實際上是關於長期的幾件事。你已經談到了 5% 以上的增長軌跡。我只是想確保，除了股息之外的 75% 的自由現金並沒有改變，因為它可能比市場預期的要多一些。我只是想知道這對 5% 的成本意味著什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

And my second question is, I wonder if I could press you to think more about -- you spoke about a 5-year view from a capital activity standpoint. I wonder if you can give us some thinking as to what that would look like in terms of rig activity and spending. Because, obviously, you talk about 2022, but (inaudible). So 2 questions, one on the 5% plus, and 2, on the longer-term trajectory.

我的第二個問題是，我想知道我是否可以敦促你更多地考慮——你從資本活動的角度談到了 5 年的觀點。我想知道您能否就鑽機活動和支出方面的情況給我們一些想法。因為，很明顯，你談論的是 2022 年，但是（聽不清）。所以有 2 個問題，一個關於 5% 以上，還有 2 個關於長期軌跡。

Yes, Doug. The second part, I've talked about already, but I'll go over it again. But the first part, when we say 5% plus, we're just leaving the flexibility. So we can't get 5% exactly. Some years, we may be 6%, 7%. Some years, we may be 3% or 4%. So our goal is to really average 5% on the production growth. If we go through down periods, I gave examples of low oil prices like we did last year, we're going to be flat growth. And so the goal is really not to exceed 5%. But we do have to have the flexibility based on rig cadence and POP cadence to have that flexibility some years to go to 6% or 7%. But some years, we may be 3% or 4%.

是的，道格。第二部分，我已經談過了，但我會再講一遍。但第一部分，當我們說 5% 以上時，我們只是留下了靈活性。所以我們不能準確地得到 5%。有些年份，我們可能是6%、7%。有些年份，我們可能是 3% 或 4%。所以我們的目標是真正實現平均 5% 的產量增長。如果我們經歷低迷時期，我舉了像去年那樣低油價的例子，我們將持平增長。因此，目標實際上是不超過 5%。但我們確實必須具有基於鑽機節奏和 POP 節奏的靈活性，才能在幾年內達到 6% 或 7% 的靈活性。但有些年份，我們可能是 3% 或 4%。

And so as stated, I think -- a couple of the analysts have already asked me about '22. So it looks like we're going to be too capital efficient going into '22, and we're going to hit 8% to 10% production growth. In '22, we'll reduce capital to get it back closer to 5% or 6%. So I hope that answers your question. So the target is really 5% long term.

如上所述，我認為——一些分析師已經問過我關於 22 年的問題。因此，進入 22 年，我們的資本效率似乎會過高，我們將達到 8% 到 10% 的產量增長。在 22 年，我們將減少資本以使其回到接近 5% 或 6% 的水平。所以我希望這能回答你的問題。因此，目標實際上是 5% 的長期目標。

In regard to long term, I gave out some numbers going out the next 6 years. And I've seen some other projections by sell side. Over a 10-year time period, we basically will throw off enough free cash flow that's equal to our current market cap at current strip, that $52, $51 WTI or $55 Brent. Over a 6-year time period, it's $16 billion. And so of that $16 billion, we'll be paying out about 75% of that as a variable and 25% actually goes toward debt reduction. And so that's why I made some comments about our debts actually going to be going down over the next 6 years to almost 0 after a 6-year time period, for the reasons I gave.

關於長期，我給出了未來 6 年的一些數字。我還看到了賣方的其他一些預測。在 10 年的時間段內，我們基本上會釋放出足夠的自由現金流，這相當於我們目前在當前地帶的市值，即 52 美元、51 美元的 WTI 或 55 美元的布倫特原油。在 6 年的時間裡，它是 160 億美元。因此，在這 160 億美元中，我們將支付其中約 75% 的可變金額，而 25% 實際上用於減少債務。因此，這就是為什麼我對我們的債務在未來 6 年內實際上會在 6 年時間段後下降到幾乎為 0 的原因發表一些評論，原因是我給出的原因。

So I'd rather have a much better balance sheet. It gives us more options in regard to whether we buy back stock during extreme down periods like we had last year at $50, are examples where we want to pay a higher variable than our free cash flow during a given year. And also, as I also gave the optimism that as our debt moves towards 0, that we could increase the 75% up to a higher amount obviously, up to 90%, 95% or 100% of free cash flow. So hopefully, we're trying to give the Board various options and flexibility, obviously, in this fluctuating commodity price market.

所以我寧願有一個更好的資產負債表。它為我們提供了更多選擇，以決定我們是否會像去年那樣以 50 美元的價格在極端低迷時期回購股票，這是我們希望在給定年份支付比自由現金流更高的變量的示例。而且，正如我也樂觀地認為，隨著我們的債務趨向於 0，我們顯然可以將 75% 增加到更高的數額，高達自由現金流的 90%、95% 或 100%。因此，希望在這個波動的商品價格市場中，我們顯然正在努力為董事會提供各種選擇和靈活性。

I apologize, Scott, if I missed some of the nuance. But just to be clear, I'm trying to get a rig trajectory or maybe a POP trajectory that goes along with -- maybe that's too detailed...

如果我錯過了一些細微差別，我深表歉意，斯科特。但需要說明的是，我正在嘗試獲得一個鑽機軌跡，或者可能是一個 POP 軌跡——也許這太詳細了……

Okay. Yes, we added -- I said in one of my earlier statements -- on one of my slides that we're going to -- our long term is that we're adding 1 to 2 rigs per year. So long term, you can figure adding 1 to 2 rigs per year long term from the current 18 to 20 rigs.

好的。是的，我們添加了——我在我之前的一份聲明中說過——在我的一張幻燈片上——我們的長期目標是每年增加 1 到 2 個鑽井平台。從長遠來看，您可以計算從目前的 18 到 20 個鑽井平台每年長期增加 1 到 2 個鑽井平台。

(inaudible) 5%.

（聽不清）5%。

Got it, Neal. Go it. Okay. That's really helpful, guys. And maybe just a quick follow-up then. Does your hedging philosophy change with such a robust balance sheet, and let's say, upside risk to the oil price seems to be the growing consensus, how do you think about hedging not even there?

知道了，尼爾。去吧。好的。這真的很有幫助，伙計們。也許只是一個快速的跟進。您的對沖理念是否會隨著資產負債表的強勁而改變，比如說，油價的上行風險似乎已成為越來越多的共識，您如何看待甚至不進行對沖？

Yes. We're only spending about 50% to 60% of our cash flow now. So we don't need to protect the CapEx as much as we needed to before. We do have a great balance sheet. The market's in extreme backwardation. Due to liquidity, less liquidity, the volatility of the market, we can't get any upside on collars or free ways anymore. So you'll probably see us do less hedging for that reason.

是的。我們現在只花費了大約 50% 到 60% 的現金流。所以我們不需要像以前那樣保護資本支出。我們確實有一個很好的資產負債表。市場處於極端逆價。由於流動性，流動性減少，市場波動，我們再也無法在領子或免費方式上獲得任何好處。因此，您可能會看到我們因此減少對沖。

But if we see any type of spikes, we'll probably go into the marketplace. So we're going to be opportunistic, obviously. But the market is strong. I'm still a strong believer that demand is going to come back strong, both on airlines and also driving around the world once we get herd immunity. So -- and I'm confident that we can assort the Iranian barrels into the marketplace over time, and that U.S. shale is not -- no longer going to be a threat to OPEC and OPEC+.

但如果我們看到任何類型的峰值，我們可能會進入市場。所以我們顯然會投機取巧。但市場強勁。我仍然堅信，一旦我們獲得群體免疫力，需求將會強勁恢復，無論是對航空公司還是對世界各地的駕車。所以——我相信隨著時間的推移，我們可以將伊朗石油分類進入市場，而美國頁岩油不會——不再對歐佩克和歐佩克+構成威脅。

And our next question will come from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Scott or Neal, maybe I missed this. Could you talk a bit around just -- Scott, you just were talking about even that 10-year about what the potential could be on the variable. What -- and you've talked about -- I know you've been pretty specific about the production growth. Could you talk about the dividend -- the base dividend growth? Kind of what -- will that just continue to flow with the other overall growth? I just want to make sure I'm clear with how you are sort of assuming that base dividend growth as -- with conjunction with the variable.

斯科特或尼爾，也許我錯過了這個。你能不能談談 - 斯科特，你只是在談論那 10 年關於變量的潛力。什麼 - 你已經談到 - 我知道你對產量增長非常具體。你能談談股息——基本股息增長嗎？什麼樣的 - 這會繼續與其他整體增長一起流動嗎？我只是想確保我清楚你是如何假設基本股息增長與變量相結合的。

Yes. It will be -- a small increase every year is our goal. So it will be minimal. It will be something from -- something minimal, 1 -- in that 1% to 3% range is our expectations.

是的。這將是——每年小幅增長是我們的目標。所以它將是最小的。這將是 - 最小的東西，1 - 在 1% 到 3% 的範圍內是我們的期望。

Got it. Got it. And then, Scott, you, Rich or Joe, I'm just wondering on what you saw or experienced with this, the outages and now the production downtime that you saw around the storm. Have you all started or will you think about or thoughts about permanent structural changes? Or anything around either, I don't know if it's just infrastructure or tank battery, you sort of name it, are the things that you've started or would think about doing to -- I know, obviously, here in Texas, it doesn't happen to us quite often. But just your thoughts about if there's things that you could do to, I don't know, better prevent that going forward.

知道了。知道了。然後，Scott，你，Rich 或 Joe，我只是想知道你看到或經歷過什麼，你在風暴前後看到的中斷和現在的生產停機時間。你們都開始了嗎，或者你們會考慮或考慮永久性的結構變化嗎？或者周圍的任何東西，我不知道它是否只是基礎設施或坦克電池，你可以說出它的名字，是你已經開始或會考慮做的事情 - 我知道，顯然，在德克薩斯州，它不會經常發生在我們身上。但只是你的想法，如果有什麼你可以做的，我不知道，更好地防止這種情況繼續發生。

Yes. I think we'll take lessons learned from and see what things happen. But in general, it was such a 50-year event or 100-year event, whatever you look at it. We still want to be capital-efficient about it. And so we'll assess that. So not a -- no decisions today, but we'll definitely look at it just from a lessons learned. But I would say that given the freak nature of it, that, at this point, we don't see any substantial changes that we would make.

是的。我想我們會吸取教訓，看看會發生什麼。但總的來說，這是一個 50 年或 100 年的事件，無論你怎麼看。我們仍然希望在這方面保持資本效率。因此，我們將對其進行評估。所以不是——今天沒有決定，但我們肯定會從吸取的教訓中審視它。但我要說的是，鑑於它的反常性質，在這一點上，我們看不到我們會做出任何實質性的改變。

And everything is back online now.

現在一切都恢復在線了。

Not 100%. We're -- we've got the vast majority back online and probably next week or so, we'll get the rest of it.

不是 100%。我們 - 我們已經讓絕大多數人重新上線，可能在下週左右，我們將獲得其餘部分。

And next question will come from Derrick Whitfield with Stifel.

下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Derrick Whitfield。

Perhaps for Scott or Rich, one of your peers recently committed to a plan to offset Scope 1 emissions through direct investments in CCS and/or renewable projects. From an ESG perspective, could you comment on the company's desire to pursue something similar to this as a means to offset direct carbon emissions from your operation?

也許對 Scott 或 Rich 來說，您的一位同行最近承諾通過對 CCS 和/或可再生項目的直接投資來抵消範圍 1 排放的計劃。從 ESG 的角度來看，您能否評論一下公司希望採取類似的措施來抵消您運營中的直接碳排放？

Yes. In general, we're evaluating what companies like that and another company like Oxy is doing on carbon capture long term. We're assessed -- a couple of our also peers have stated they have ambitions -- they used the word targets and ambitions to go to net 0 by 2050. So we're assessing that also. So -- we're assessing everything -- everything is on the table in regard to get better and better.

是的。總的來說，我們正在評估像這樣的公司和像 Oxy 這樣的另一家公司在長期碳捕獲方面所做的工作。我們進行了評估——我們的一些同行也表示他們有雄心壯志——他們使用目標和雄心這個詞到 2050 年達到淨零。所以我們也在評估這一點。所以——我們正在評估一切——一切都在考慮變得越來越好。

So -- and then we'll have to see what the Biden administration does with their upcoming climate -- after the stimulus gets passed, they're going to focus on infrastructure and climate next. And so we'll have to evaluate that also. And so everything is on the table in that regard.

因此——然後我們將不得不看看拜登政府將如何應對即將到來的氣候——在刺激計劃通過後，他們下一步將關注基礎設施和氣候。因此，我們也必須對其進行評估。因此，在這方面一切都擺在桌面上。

Makes sense, Scott. And for my follow-up, perhaps for Joey. Referencing Slide 9. As you think about the progression of your D&C operations with regard to pad size and lateral length, can you comment on where you feel the efficiency limits are today and how this slide was 2 to 3 years from now?

有道理，斯科特。對於我的後續行動，也許是為了喬伊。參考幻燈片 9。當您考慮 D&C 操作在焊盤尺寸和橫向長度方面的進展時，您能否評論一下您認為今天的效率限制在哪里以及這張幻燈片在 2 到 3 年後的表現如何？

Specifically, on pad size and project size, I would say that I wouldn't expect that to continue to increase. But certainly, from a consistency perspective, as we do more co-developments and full stack developments, more so and more so that we'll continue to have, on average, more wells per pad. From an efficiency gain perspective, as I said in my comments, I would have never expected for us to basically achieve in 2020 what we've done in 2019.

具體來說，關於焊盤尺寸和項目尺寸，我會說我不希望它繼續增加。但可以肯定的是，從一致性的角度來看，隨著我們進行更多的共同開發和全堆棧開發，越來越多，因此我們將繼續平均每個墊有更多的井。從效率增益的角度來看，正如我在評論中所說，我從未期望我們能在 2020 年基本實現我們在 2019 年所做的事情。

And then continuing on my other comments that the benefits of technology are having significant improvements. The thing that I would say that's different now is that there aren't very many big wins to be had. Simul-frac may be a big win. But for the most part, when I look at the waterfall charts, it's lots of small, incremental wins that add up to significant improvements. So we're certainly not finished on that journey. And we'll continue to work at it relentlessly to continue to drive our cost structure lower and lower.

然後繼續我的其他評論，即技術的好處正在顯著改善。我要說的是現在不同的是，沒有太多的大勝利。 Simul-frac 可能是一個巨大的勝利。但在大多數情況下，當我查看瀑布圖時，會發現很多小的、漸進的勝利加起來就是顯著的改進。所以我們肯定還沒有結束這段旅程。我們將繼續不懈努力，繼續推動我們的成本結構越來越低。

And next, we'll hear from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.

接下來，我們將聽取 Bernstein Research 的 Bob Brackett 的意見。

Quick question and maybe a little slower one. The quick question, what is the timing of the decision on the variable dividend payout? So if we're sitting in 1Q of 2023, is that when the decision is made about the free cash flow payout from 1Q of 2022, for example?

快速提問，也許稍微慢一點。快速提問，決定可變股息支付的時間是什麼時候？因此，如果我們坐在 2023 年第一季度，那是什麼時候決定從 2022 年第一季度開始的自由現金流支付？

Yes. Bob, this is Scott. We generally have our Board meetings in late January or early February, early to mid-February. And those -- that's generally when we discuss increasing the dividend, and that's when we would make the final decision at that point in time. So you're correct.

是的。鮑勃，這是斯科特。我們通常在 1 月底或 2 月初、2 月初至中旬召開董事會會議。而那些——通常是我們討論增加股息的時候，也是我們在那個時間點做出最終決定的時候。所以你是對的。

Yes. That's clear. The second is the trade-off between the variable dividend and share buybacks. So you clearly expressed eagerness to buy back shares sitting in the middle of last year, let's say. At some point, the shares are valued to the point where buybacks make less sense and the variable dividend makes more sense. Do you use an internal NAV to make that decision? Or is -- what sort of thought process would go into that?

是的。這很清楚。第二個是可變股息和股票回購之間的權衡。所以你明確表示渴望回購去年年中的股票，比方說。在某個時候，股票的估值達到回購意義不大而可變股息更有意義的程度。您是否使用內部資產淨值來做出該決定？或者是 - 什麼樣的思維過程會進入那個？

Well, first of all, I talked to over 100 shareholders over the last 18 months. And I would say 99.9% preferred that they would -- long term, they would prefer us to pay a variable dividend versus buying back any stock. That's long term and buying stock year after year. As you know, the industry has a terrible track record of buying back stock at the top of the market. And so people that are talking about buying stock now were back at the -- close to maybe at top of the market. And so that's the wrong kind of a buy-in. And so everybody is in favor of a great balance sheet, if you can afford it, to buy back in those dips. We had a chance to buy back at $50 last year. We did -- we didn't have great enough balance sheet. So that's the -- so that's generally our feelings long term. Buy it back only during those downturns and not buy back shares, and then focus on the variable dividend as the best way to return capital long term.

好吧，首先，在過去的 18 個月裡，我與 100 多位股東進行了交談。我會說 99.9% 的人更喜歡他們——從長遠來看，他們更願意我們支付可變股息，而不是回購任何股票。這是長期的，年復一年地購買股票。如您所知，該行業在市場頂部回購股票的記錄很糟糕。因此，現在談論購買股票的人又回到了——接近市場頂部的位置。所以這是錯誤的買入方式。因此，每個人都讚成擁有良好的資產負債表，如果你負擔得起的話，可以在逢低買回。去年我們有機會以 50 美元的價格回購。我們做到了——我們的資產負債表不夠好。這就是 - 所以這通常是我們長期的感受。只在經濟低迷時期回購，而不是回購股票，然後將重點放在可變股息上，作為長期回報資本的最佳方式。

And up next, we'll take a question from Paul Cheng with Scotia Bank.

接下來，我們將接受豐業銀行 Paul Cheng 的提問。

First, Scott and the team, just want to complement you guys that for resist the temptation, just spend all the free cash and put some on the balance sheet, I think is the right thing for the E&P industry for oil companies in the -- when you have excess cash flow to put into the balance sheet, and at some point that gets you to net 0 on the net debt.

首先，斯科特和他的團隊，只是想補充你們，為了抵制誘惑，花掉所有的自由現金，把一些放在資產負債表上，我認為這對石油公司的勘探與生產行業來說是正確的——當你有多餘的現金流投入資產負債表時，在某個時候，這會讓你的淨債務淨值為 0。

Anyway, 2 questions. First, with the lower growth rate that you guys are targeting now, you have a great inventory backlog. So does it make sense that -- for you to look at some of the really long data inventory that it may take you 20 years from now before you get to trying to either monetize it, to sell it or through joint venture have someone else to develop and you receive the royalty or some other form? The second question is that...

無論如何，2個問題。首先，由於你們現在的目標增長率較低，因此庫存積壓很大。那麼這是否有意義 - 讓您查看一些非常長的數據清單，從現在開始可能需要 20 年的時間才能嘗試將其貨幣化，出售或通過合資企業讓其他人開發並收到特許權使用費或其他形式？第二個問題是……

Yes, no, yes. Go ahead.

是的，不，是的。前進。

Go ahead, Scott, sorry.

繼續，斯科特，對不起。

Okay. I generally -- I can't remember 2 questions. So it's better to give me one question at a time. On the first question, about long-dated inventory, the -- it's the same policy we've had. We will continue to take our Tier 2 acreage that we have and try to divest on it over time. And I think with the oil price moving up, there could be more opportunities where people will approach us like we've -- and we've done that consistently over the last 5 years.

好的。我一般——我不記得兩個問題。所以最好一次給我一個問題。關於第一個問題，關於長期庫存，這與我們的政策相同。我們將繼續佔用我們擁有的 2 級土地，並隨著時間的推移嘗試剝離它。而且我認為隨著油價上漲，人們可能會有更多機會像我們一樣接近我們——我們在過去 5 年中一直這樣做。

Secondly, we've entered into a DrillCo arrangement, as we have stated back in 2019 when I came back, that we would look at doing things like that. And that got put into place. We've drilled 9 wells already. That's very positive. And we're looking at extending that. So those are some of the examples that we're looking at, and we'll continue to do that. What's your second question?

其次，正如我們在 2019 年我回來時所說的那樣，我們已經進行了 DrillCo 安排，我們會考慮做這樣的事情。這已經到位。我們已經鑽了 9 口井。這是非常積極的。我們正在考慮擴展它。所以這些是我們正在研究的一些例子，我們將繼續這樣做。你的第二個問題是什麼？

The second question is that Permian is clearly in excess takeaway capacity, and probably that will -- this situation will be here for maybe a number of years. So how that impact on your marketing effort? And also, how you deal with your existing take-or-pay contracts? Is there any way that -- to maybe modify those?

第二個問題是，二疊紀顯然有過剩的外賣能力，而且可能會——這種情況可能會持續很多年。那麼這對您的營銷工作有何影響？此外，您如何處理現有的照付不議合同？有什麼辦法可以修改這些嗎？

Yes. Paul, it's Rich. Yes, I'd say our contracts for firm transportation and move things to the Gulf Coast really are -- we have those now. And so with the lower growth rate, we have some extra capacity. But with the Parsley transaction is -- a number of those roll off -- their marketing arrangements roll off contract. In a couple of years, we'll be able to move those barrels onto that pipeline commitments. And plus that we have plenty of barrels that we can get in the Midland Tank Farm.

是的。保羅，它很豐富。是的，我會說我們的公司運輸合同和將東西運到墨西哥灣沿岸的合同確實是——我們現在有了這些合同。因此，在較低的增長率下，我們有一些額外的產能。但隨著 Parsley 的交易——其中一些交易結束了——他們的營銷安排結束了合同。幾年後，我們將能夠將這些桶轉移到管道承諾上。再加上我們在米德蘭油庫可以買到很多桶。

So there's no concern on our part in terms of being able to get the volumes and move those down and get to the higher -- what we'd hope would be a higher-priced market with Brent prices in the refinery markets on the Gulf Coast. I mean, clearly, where our differentials are now is that, yes, we've been slightly negative in 2020 and so far in '21. But long term, we still would think that prices on the Gulf Coast and export market will be better, but we'll have to continue to assess that. And -- but given where the capacity is, I don't see us taking on any new commitments at this point, but we'll continue to honor the ones that we have.

因此，我們不擔心能夠獲得數量並將其降低並達到更高的水平 - 我們希望墨西哥灣沿岸煉油市場的布倫特價格會成為一個價格更高的市場.我的意思是，很明顯，我們現在的差異是，是的，我們在 2020 年和 21 年到目前為止都略有負面。但從長遠來看，我們仍然認為墨西哥灣沿岸和出口市場的價格會更好，但我們必須繼續對此進行評估。而且——但考慮到能力所在，我認為我們目前不會做出任何新的承諾，但我們將繼續兌現我們已有的承諾。

And that concludes our Q&A session. I'll turn the call back over to Scott Sheffield for additional or closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我會將電話轉回給 Scott Sheffield 以進行補充或結束評論。

Again, thanks, everybody. Hopefully, we'll get a chance starting in summer, late summer, early fall, where we can actually have some visits among all of us as we reach herd immunity here in the U.S. So again, we look forward to next quarter. Again, thank you very much for tuning in to us. Thank you.

再次感謝大家。希望我們能有機會從夏季、夏末、初秋開始，在美國實現群體免疫後，我們所有人之間實際上可以進行一些訪問。因此，我們再次期待下個季度。再次感謝您收聽我們的節目。謝謝。

And this concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。