先鋒自然資源 (PXD) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Pioneer Natural Resources Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today will be Scott Sheffield, Chief Executive Officer; Rich Dealy, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Neal Shah, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Pioneer has prepared a presentation of slides to supplement comments made today. These slides are available on the internet at www.pxd.com. Again the internet website to access slides presented in today's call is www.pxd.com. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded. A replay of the call will be archived on www.pxd.com through September 1, 2023.

歡迎參加先鋒自然資源第二季財報電話會議。今天加入我們的是執行長 Scott Sheffield； Rich Dealy，總裁兼營運長；執行副總裁兼財務長 Neal Shah。先鋒公司準備了幻燈片簡報來補充今天的評論。這些投影片可在網路上取得：www.pxd.com。同樣，訪問今天電話會議中演示的幻燈片的互聯網網站是 www.pxd.com。 （操作員說明）。今天的通話正在錄音。通話重播將在 www.pxd.com 上存檔，直至 2023 年 9 月 1 日。

The company's comments today will include forward-looking statements pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements and the business prospects of Pioneer are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results in future periods to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

該公司今天的評論將包括根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述。可能會導致未來的實際結果期間與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties are described in Pioneer's news release on Page 2 of the slide presentation and in Pioneer's public filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Pioneer's Chief Executive Officer, Scott Sheffield. Please go ahead, sir.

這些風險和不確定性在先鋒公司幻燈片演示第 2 頁的新聞稿以及先鋒公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中進行了描述。現在，我想將電話轉給先鋒公司執行長 Scott Sheffield 致開幕詞。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, JL. Good morning, everyone. It's great to be with you today. Before we highlight Pioneer's strong second quarter results, I wanted to briefly speak to the current macro outlook and its impact on oil prices. As you all know, crude has been range bound between $65 and $80 over the previous several months, has been suppressed by SBR releases, recessionary fears, and weak economic data from China. The recent upward move in oil prices reflects the expectation for a tightening supply-demand fundamentals in the second half of this year.

謝謝你，JL。大家早安。今天很高興和你在一起。在我們強調先鋒第二季強勁的業績之前，我想先簡單談談當前的宏觀前景及其對油價的影響。眾所周知，過去幾個月，原油價格一直在 65 美元至 80 美元之間波動，受到 SBR 釋放、經濟衰退擔憂和中國疲弱經濟數據的抑制。近期油價上漲反映了今年下半年供需基本面趨緊的預期。

The major contributors to this include the Fed success in managing inflationary pressures and preventing a recession, likely resulting in a soft landing for the U.S. economy. China actually taken measures to bolster its economy through its stimulus programs, limited U.S. oil shale supply. The end of substantial U.S. SBR releases which has resulted in a 40-year low inventories. This outlook is further supported by Saudi Arabia's production cuts and ABS' preference to stabilize Brent oil prices at $90 or higher.

造成這種情況的主要因素包括聯準會成功管理通膨壓力和防止經濟衰退，這可能導緻美國經濟軟著陸。中國實際上採取了透過刺激計畫來提振經濟的措施，限制了美國油頁岩的供應。美國大量 SBR 釋放的結束導致庫存處於 40 年來的低點。沙烏地阿拉伯的減產以及ABS傾向於將布倫特油價穩定在90美元或更高水準進一步支撐了這一前景。

I do expect Saudi to extend their 1 million-barrel a day cut they initiated July 1 toward the end of '23. I see these factors leading to demand outpacing supply, resulting in global inventory draws during the second half of '23. The expected demand increase, combined with the underinvestment by industry over the last several years, are both supportive for oil pricing in the $80 to $100 range for the remainder of '23 and through '24 on.

我確實預計沙烏地阿拉伯將在 7 月 1 日開始的 23 年底前延長每日 100 萬桶的減產。我認為這些因素導致需求超過供應，導致 23 年下半年全球庫存減少。預期的需求成長，加上過去幾年產業投資不足，都對 23 年剩餘時間和 24 年後的油價在 80 至 100 美元的範圍內形成支撐。

Now turning to Pioneer's performance. We delivered excellent second quarter results thanks to the safe and highly efficient operations of the Pioneer team. I applaud the great work and efforts of all of our employees. I know that Rich and the team is focus on top-tier execution who will continue to deliver strong results throughout the year as highlighted in the presentation that Rich and Neal will speak into more detail. Again, it's great to be with you all today. I will now hand over the call to Rich.

現在轉向先鋒的表現。得益於先鋒團隊的安全高效運營，我們第二季度取得了優異的業績。我對我們所有員工的出色工作和努力表示讚賞。我知道里奇和他的團隊專注於頂級執行力，他們將在全年繼續取得強勁的業績，正如里奇和尼爾將在演講中強調的那樣，他們將進行更詳細的介紹。再次，很高興今天能和大家在一起。我現在將把電話轉給里奇。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. I will begin on Slide 3. As you can see, Pioneer delivered an excellent second quarter with oil production near the top end of our guidance range. As we expected, we are seeing improved well performance relative to 2022, and the teams continue to operate at a very high level. As a result of our strong well productivity and highly efficient operations, we are increasing full year 2023 production guidance, while simultaneously lowering our full year 2023 capital guidance to reflect our intentional activity reductions and some deflation.

謝謝你，斯科特，早安。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。正如我們預期的那樣，我們看到油井性能相對 2022 年有所改善，團隊繼續以非常高的水平運作。由於我們強大的油井生產力和高效的運營，我們正在提高 2023 年全年產量指導，同時降低 2023 年全年資本指導，以反映我們有意減少的活動和一定程度的通貨緊縮。

This combination of higher production and lower capital drives an improved 2023 plan and further enhances Pioneer's capital efficiency. Along with these solid results and strength and full year outlook, we continue to returned significant capital to shareholders with 75% of our free cash flow being returned through -- excuse me, our base plus variable dividend and opportunistic share repurchases.

更高產量和更低資本的結合推動了 2023 年計畫的改進，並進一步提高了先鋒公司的資本效率。除了這些堅實的業績、實力和全年展望之外，我們繼續向股東返還大量資本，其中75% 的自由現金流是通過——對不起，我們的基礎加上可變股息和機會性股票回購來返還的。

Additionally, we remain committed to sustainable and socially responsible operations as evidenced by our newly established methane intensity target of 0.2% or less in 2025 in accordance with Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0 initiative. Additional details on our progress and continued efforts can be found in our recently published 2023 sustainability report.

此外，我們仍然致力於可持續和對社會負責的運營，根據石油和天然氣甲烷夥伴關係 2.0 倡議，我們新制定的 2025 年甲烷強度目標為 0.2% 或更低，這就是證明。有關我們的進展和持續努力的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們最近發布的 2023 年永續發展報告。

Turning to Slide 4. Team's continued focus on execution resulted in a strong second quarter production with oil production near the top end of second quarter guidance at 369,000 barrels of oil per day and total production exceeding the guidance range at 711,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Our significant free cash flow generation is bolstered by our strong production, top-tier price realizations and low horizontal lifting costs, which drive our best-in-class margins that Neal will talk about further later in the presentation.

轉向幻燈片 4。我們強大的生產能力、頂級的價格實現和較低的水平提升成本支撐著我們產生大量的自由現金流，這推動了我們一流的利潤率，尼爾將在稍後的演示中進一步討論這一點。

Turning to Slide 5. As I highlighted on the first slide, we are raising our full year 2023 production guidance while concurrently decreasing our drilling, completions and facilities capital guidance. The midpoint of our oil guidance increases to 369,000 barrels of oil per day and the midpoint of our drilling, completions and facilities capital budget is now lower by $125 million from our original 2023 outlook. This improved 2023 plan is driven by strong well productivity and highly efficient execution by our operations teams, resulting in a more capital-efficient program.

轉向投影片 5。我們的石油指導中位數增加至每天 369,000 桶石油，我們的鑽探、完井和設施資本預算中位數目前比我們最初的 2023 年展望降低了 1.25 億美元。這項改進的 2023 年計畫是由我們的營運團隊強大的油井生產力和高效的執行力所推動的，從而形成了一個更資本高效的計畫。

Turning to Slide 6. As seen through the company's increased full year 2023 production guidance, Pioneer expects to deliver oil production ranging from 364,000 to 374,000 barrels of oil per day. And total production ranging from 697,000 to 717,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with our investment framework that delivers moderate annual production growth of up to 5%.

轉向幻燈片 6。總產量為每天 697,000 至 717,000 桶油當量，符合我們實現高達 5% 的年產量溫和成長的投資框架。

Our reduced drilling completions and facilities capital budget is expected to range between $4.375 billion and $4.575 billion as a result of our reduced activity and operational efficiencies. And which are being driven by longer laterals, simulfrac operations, and utilization of localized sand mines to name a few. Our exploration, environmental and other capital expectations remain unchanged.

由於活動減少和營運效率下降，我們的鑽井完井和設施資本預算預計將減少 43.75 億美元至 45.75 億美元。這是由更長的支線、simulfrac 作業和局部沙礦的利用等推動的。我們的勘探、環境和其他資本預期保持不變。

As we previously discussed, this capital is allocated to 4 exploration wells targeting the Barnett-Woodford formations in the Midland Basin, adding infrastructure to further electrify the field, allowing us to move more of our activity to the grid as well as our continued appraisal of our enhanced oil recovery project.

正如我們之前所討論的，這筆資金分配給了4 個勘探井，目標是米德蘭盆地的Barnett-Woodford 地層，增加了基礎設施以進一步實現該油田的電氣化，使我們能夠將更多的活動轉移到電網上，並繼續評估我們的提高石油採收率項目。

Our 2023 rig count is now expected to average 23 to 25 rigs due to our intentional activity reductions. As a result, the projected number of wells placed on production during 2023 now ranges from 490 to 520.

由於我們有意減少活動，我們 2023 年的鑽機數量預計平均為 23 至 25 台。因此，預計 2023 年投產的油井數量目前為 490 至 520 口。

Turning to Slide 7. Looking at the chart on the left. As expected, our 2023 average well productivity is trending significantly above 2022 and is expected to surpass 2021 levels over the first 24 months of production. Our strong 2023 production paired with robust execution underpins our increased full year production expectations. We are focused on full stack development, which improves long-term recoveries and optimizes returns.

轉到投影片 7。正如預期的那樣，我們 2023 年的平均油井產能將顯著高於 2022 年，並預計在生產的前 24 個月內將超過 2021 年的水平。我們強勁的 2023 年產量與強勁的執行力支撐著我們提高的全年產量預期。我們專注於全堆疊開發，從而提高長期回收率並優化回報。

As seen on the right, Pioneer has one of the deepest inventories of low breakeven high-margin locations amongst our peers. Overall, as we've discussed in the past, we have roughly 15,000 high-rate-of-return locations with low breakevens. This deep inventory is highly productive -- of highly productive wells enables our best-in-class development for decades to come.

如右圖所示，先鋒公司是同業中擁有低盈虧平衡高利潤地點庫存最深的公司之一。總體而言，正如我們過去討論的那樣，我們大約有 15,000 個高回報率但盈虧平衡點較低的地點。這種豐富的庫存是高產量的——高產油井使我們能夠在未來幾十年實現一流的發展。

Turning to Slide 8. As part of our low breakeven inventory, Pioneer has an extensive inventory of extended lateral length wells. This slide highlights the benefits of long lateral length development both lower cost per lateral foot and increased production levels. 15,000-foot lateral length well development generates significant efficiencies in both drilling and completions. These developments require fewer wellbores, along with less drilling rig and frac fleet mobilizations. The combination of these benefits resulted in a capital savings of approximately 15% per lateral foot.

轉向幻燈片 8。這張投影片強調了長橫向長度開發的好處，包括降低每側腳的成本和提高生產水準。 15,000 英尺橫向長度油井開發可顯著提高鑽井和完井效率。這些開發案需要更少的井眼，以及更少的鑽孔機和壓裂車隊。這些優勢相結合，每側腳可節省約 15% 的資本。

These capital savings paired with optimized artificial lift have further increased returns with IRRs increasing by more than 35% when compared to 10,000-foot laterals. Our strong well results and artificial lift refinements have improved the average IRR uplift to 35%, well above our previous estimate of 20%. Our highly contiguous acreage position contains more than 1,000 future locations with 15,000 foot or longer laterals. And as we move -- pardon me, and we expect more than 100 of these wells we placed on production in 2023 including some wells that have lateral lengths in excess of 18,000 feet, further improving returns.

這些資本節約與優化的人工舉升相結合，進一步提高了回報，與 10,000 英尺支線相比，IRR 增加了 35% 以上。我們強勁的油井成果和人工舉升改進將平均 IRR 提升至 35%，遠高於我們先前估計的 20%。我們高度連續的土地位置包含 1,000 多個未來位置，支線長度為 15,000 英尺或更長。隨著我們的進展，請原諒，我們預計 2023 年將有超過 100 口井投入生產，其中一些井的橫向長度超過 18,000 英尺，從而進一步提高回報。

Our land team continues to do a great job to optimize our land position by actively working trades to strategically increase our significant long lateral inventory. Again, demonstrating the benefits of Pioneer's unique contiguous acreage position.

我們的土地團隊繼續出色地工作，透過積極進行交易來策略性地增加我們大量的長期橫向庫存，從而優化我們的土地地位。再次展示了先鋒公司獨特的連續種植面積位置的優勢。

Turning to Slide 9. Pioneer's completions efficiencies are industry-leading with Pioneer's average completed feet per day being approximately 80% better than peers and U.S. majors. These peer-leading efficiencies are a testament to the hard work and focus of our teams. In addition to our focus on operational efficiencies, we are driving additional capital savings through the utilization of localized sand mines and simulfrac technology. We are now operating 3 full-time simulfrac fleets, which continue to be a major contributor to our high efficiencies, delivering average cost savings of $200,000 per well. Pioneer began second localized sand mine during the second quarter. These localized sand lines reduced road traffic, lower CO2 emissions and provide average capital savings of $200,000 per well.

轉向幻燈片 9。這些同行領先的效率證明了我們團隊的辛勤工作和專注。除了專注於營運效率之外，我們還透過利用在地化沙礦和 simulfrac 技術來節省更多資本。我們現在經營 3 個全職 simulfrac 車隊，它們仍然是我們高效率的主要貢獻者，每口井平均節省成本 20 萬美元。先鋒公司在第二季度開始了第二個局部沙礦開採。這些局部沙線減少了道路交通，降低了二氧化碳排放量，每口井平均節省資本 20 萬美元。

Consistent with our commitment to sustainable operations, we expect 100% of our completion fleet to be either electric or dual-fuel-powered in the third quarter of 2023, allowing us to both reduce emissions and capture fuel cost savings. I will now turn it over to Neal.

根據我們對永續營運的承諾，我們預計到 2023 年第三季度，我們的完井船隊將 100% 採用電動或雙燃料動力，使我們能夠減少排放並節省燃料成本。我現在將把它交給尼爾。

Thank you, Rich, and good morning. Turning to Slide 10. Pioneer continues to return significant capital to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases and as outlined in our investment framework on the left chart. Consistent with this framework, as illustrated on the right, Pioneer returned $557 million of second quarter free cash flow through a combination of our strong base dividend, variable dividend and opportunistic share repurchases. Our strong third quarter annualized dividend yield of 3.3% continues to substantially outpace the average S&P 500 yield of 1.5%. We believe this return of capital framework paired with annual oil growth of up to 5%, provides significant value for shareholders.

謝謝你，里奇，早安。轉向投影片 10。與此框架一致，如右圖所示，先鋒公司透過強勁的基礎股息、可變股息和機會性股票回購相結合，返還了 5.57 億美元的第二季度自由現金流。我們第三季年化股息殖利率高達 3.3%，繼續大幅高於標準普爾 500 指數 1.5% 的平均殖利率。我們相信，這種資本回報框架與每年高達 5% 的石油成長率相結合，將為股東提供巨大的價值。

Turning to Slide 11. Pioneer continues to generate peer-leading margins through the combination of our top-tier price realizations and low cash costs. Pioneer's margin benefit from our diversified marketing strategy. In fact, I will highlight the strength of our gas marketing strategy in greater detail on the following slide. Our compelling cash costs are underpinned by our low G&A, interest expense and bolstered by the team's focused on driving low peer-leading operating cost per BOE. During the second quarter, we achieved operating costs that were approximately 20% lower than the same period in 2022. These best-in-class margins support our strong free cash flow generation.

轉向幻燈片 11。先鋒的利潤受益於我們多元化的行銷策略。事實上，我將在下面的幻燈片中更詳細地強調我們的天然氣行銷策略的優勢。我們引人注目的現金成本得益於我們的低一般管理費用和利息支出，以及團隊專注於降低同業領先的每桶油當量營運成本。第二季度，我們的營運成本比 2022 年同期降低了約 20%。

Turning to Slide 12. As I introduced on the previous slide, Pioneer's strong price realizations benefit from our diversified gas marketing strategy. This strategy provides access to the premium West Coast and Gulf Coast markets and reduces our exposure to the localized Waha market, which regularly trades at a discount to the major gas indices. As seen on the graph to the right, during the first quarter, Pioneer's realized gas price was nearly 20% higher than that of peers.

轉向幻燈片 12。這項策略提供了進入優質西海岸和墨西哥灣沿岸市場的機會，並減少了我們對當地瓦哈市場的曝險，該市場的交易價格通常低於主要天然氣指數。如右圖所示，第一季度，Pioneer 的實際天然氣價格比同業高出近 20%。

Thus far, based on industry reported second quarter results, we have maintained our strong price realizations relative to peers. We employ a multiyear planning and strategic approach to our marketing strategy that has provided us access to these premium gas markets. As noted in the graphic in the lower left-hand corner, Pioneer expects to further increase the percentage of gas that is sold out of the basin from approximately 70% today to approximately 80% in the second half of 2024 when Matterhorn comes online.

到目前為止，根據行業報告的第二季度業績，我們相對於同業保持了強勁的價格實現。我們對行銷策略採用多年規劃和策略方法，使我們能夠進入這些優質天然氣市場。正如左下角的圖表所示，Pioneer 預計到 2024 年下半年馬特洪峰上線時，該盆地的天然氣銷售比例將從目前的約 70% 進一步增加至約 80%。

Turning to Slide 13. The graphic on the right illustrates the free cash flow generative power of our long-term investment framework, which delivers annual growth of up to 5%. Pioneer's high-quality assets, high margin production and moderate oil growth are forecasted to generate 5-year cumulative free cash flow of $27 billion, assuming an $80 WTI flat oil price or approximately 50% of our enterprise value. Even at $60 WTI, our program is expected to generate approximately $13 billion in cumulative free cash flow over the next 5 years. which demonstrates the resiliency of our program, even at lower oil prices.

轉向投影片 13。假設 WTI 油價持平或約為我們企業價值的 50%，先鋒公司的優質資產、高利潤產量和溫和的石油成長預計將產生 5 年累積 270 億美元的自由現金流。即使 WTI 價格為 60 美元，我們的計劃預計在未來 5 年內將產生約 130 億美元的累積自由現金流。這證明了我們的計劃即使在油價較低的情況下也具有彈性。

This slide essentially represents the culmination of what we've discussed with you here today. Pioneer's strong price realizations, our peer-leading margins are deep inventory of highly productive wells and improved capital efficiency. All elements contributing to the result durable and compelling free cash flow generation at various commodity prices. And with that, I will hand things back to Rich.

這張投影片實質上代表了我們今天在這裡與您討論的內容的高潮。先鋒公司強勁的價格實現、我們同業領先的利潤率是高產油井的大量庫存和提高的資本效率。所有因素都有助於在各種商品價格下產生持久且引人注目的自由現金流。有了這個，我會把東西交還給里奇。

Thanks, Neal. I'll resume on Slide 14, which includes highlights from Pioneer's recently-published 2023 sustainability report. The company has continued to make progress towards our emissions reduction targets. As I mentioned before, we are proud to announce that in accordance with OGMP 2.0 initiative, we established a methane intensity target of 0.2% or less in 2025, which places Pioneer on path of achieving the OGMP gold standard designation.

謝謝，尼爾。我將繼續投影片 14，其中包括先鋒公司最近發布的 2023 年永續發展報告的要點。該公司在實現減排目標方面不斷取得進展。正如我之前提到的，我們很自豪地宣布，根據 OGMP 2.0 倡議，我們制定了 2025 年甲烷強度目標為 0.2% 或更低，這使先鋒公司走上了實現 OGMP 黃金標準指定的道路。

In support of this target, we have recently completed the installation of fixed methane sensors, monitoring 80% of our gas production. We also continue to retrofit pneumatic controllers and conduct aerial methane surveys across our assets. These methane reduction efforts resulted in a 64% reduction in methane intensity during 2022 compared to our 2019 baseline. In addition to our methane reduction efforts, our Hutt Wind renewal project is on track to begin operation in early 2024.

為了支持這一目標，我們最近完成了固定甲烷感測器的安裝，監測我們 80% 的天然氣產量。我們也繼續改造氣動控制器，並對我們的資產進行航空甲烷調查。與 2019 年基線相比，這些甲烷減量工作導致 2022 年甲烷強度降低了 64%。除了減少甲烷排放的努力外，我們的赫特風能更新計畫也預計在 2024 年初開始運作。

We expect this project to not only reduce our emissions, but also provide electricity at a very competitive cost to our operations. We are also making significant progress on field infrastructure will allow us to move more of our drilling, completions and production operations to electric power, further reducing our emissions footprint.

我們希望該項目不僅能夠減少排放，還能以極具競爭力的成本為我們的營運提供電力。我們還在現場基礎設施​​方面取得了重大進展，這將使我們能夠將更多的鑽井、完井和生產作業轉向電力，進一步減少我們的排放足跡。

Our progress and commitment to sustainable and socially responsible operations is outlined in detail within our sustainability report, which can be found on our website.

我們的永續發展報告詳細概述了我們對永續發展和對社會負責的營運的進展和承諾，該報告可以在我們的網站上找到。

I conclude on Slide 15, where you can see our foundational element of Pioneer's strategy, which supports our commitment to creating value to shareholders. So with that, JL, we're going to open up the call -- are happy to open the call for questions.

我在投影片 15 中總結，您可以在其中看到我們先鋒策略的基本要素，它支持我們致力於為股東創造價值的承諾。因此，JL，我們將開始通話——很高興開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first from the line of John Freeman of Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的約翰弗里曼的血統。

It's really nice seeing the well productivity trends continue. And I guess I was just thinking in the past when you all talked about that long-term 0% to 5% growth range, and you all talked about adding 1 or 2 rigs a year. Just based on what you're seeing from a productivity, capital efficiency improvement, is that sort of changed how you all view the necessary rig-add to accomplish that? Or I guess, said differently, is that second half '23 activity run rate, is that something close to what we should assume as a base case for '24.

很高興看到油井生產力趨勢持續下去。我想我只是在想，過去你們都談到了長期 0% 到 5% 的增長範圍，你們都談到了每年增加 1 到 2 台鑽機。僅根據您從生產力和資本效率改進中看到的情況，這是否改變了您對實現這一目標所需的必要設備添加的看法？或者我猜，換句話說，23 年下半年的活動運行率接近我們應該假設的 24 年的基本情況。

Yes, John, it's probably a little early to talk about '24 just from a (inaudible) standpoint, but I would say as we look at it, going forward, we see production in that upper half of our 0% to 5% range is where we target production for 2024 based on a day. In general, as we've talked about, as you outlined, it takes 1 to 2 rigs to grow at that level.

是的，約翰，僅從（聽不清楚）的角度談論 24 年可能有點早，但我想說，當我們展望未來時，我們看到產量處於 0% 至 5% 範圍的上半部分是我們按天計算的2024 年目標產量。一般來說，正如我們所討論的，正如您所概述的，需要 1 到 2 個鑽孔機才能達到該水平。

But as you point out, we've had significant growth in productivity in 2023. And so that should make 2024 very capital-efficient. And so to me, it probably means that we're at the lower end of that 1 to 2 rigs or maybe even potentially flat. So more to tell, but the teams are doing a great job on execution and driving efficiencies, which really allows things to do more with less rigs and less frac fleets, great job by the team.

但正如您所指出的，我們的生產力在 2023 年有了顯著成長。所以對我來說，這可能意味著我們處於 1 到 2 個鑽孔機的低端，甚至可能持平。還有更多要說的，但團隊在執行和提高效率方面做得很好，這確實允許用更少的鑽機和更少的壓裂船隊做更多的事情，團隊做得很好。

Thank Rich. And then my second question on the $125 million CapEx reduction at the midpoint. Is it possible to break that down between how much is just due to the reduction in activity versus maybe other cost savings that you weren't originally expecting?

謝謝里奇。然後我的第二個問題是關於中點 1.25 億美元的資本支出削減。是否可以將其分解為僅因活動減少而導致的成本與您最初未預期的其他成本節省之間的差異？

Yes. Most of it is really driven by activity, as you saw by the reduced average 1 rig down and then tend to have less POPs. So that's the biggest contribution. Clearly, we are seeing some deflation mainly on steel projects or casing and tubular goods, some on fuel and chemicals that are helping. We've heard commentary about rig rates and frac fleet rates coming down from what we've seen, those are mainly on spot rates and they're on what I'd call less efficient rigs and Tier 2 equipment on the frac side.

是的。其中大部分實際上是由活動驅動的，正如您所看到的，平均 1 台鑽機停機減少，然後 POP 往往會減少。所以這是最大的貢獻。顯然，我們看到一些通貨緊縮主要發生在鋼鐵項目或套管和管材上，而燃料和化學品上的一些通貨緊縮也起到了幫助作用。我們聽到了有關鑽機費率和壓裂船隊費率的評論，這些評論主要是現貨費率，我稱之為效率較低的鑽機和壓裂方面的二級設備。

And when we look at our contracts, just given our size and scale, our contracts today are still below where those spot prices are being quoted. And so I just think it's just test and our teams. I don't really see a lot of change in the back half of this year, maybe it's impact 2024. But today, we're still in a favored price on pricing other than steel and getting the benefits of steel and fuel.

當我們查看我們的合約時，考慮到我們的規模和規模，我們今天的合約仍然低於現貨報價。所以我認為這只是測試和我們的團隊。我真的沒有看到今年下半年有太大變化，也許是到2024年的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

(inaudible) John's comments, good to see the productivity improvements coming through here. So Rich, it's been a couple of months since the CEO announced -- CEO announcement was made. Would just love your perspective on 2 or 3 of the most important strategic priorities that you're talking about within the business and how can we benchmark your success on executing against this?

（聽不清楚）約翰的評論，很高興看到這裡生產力的提升。太豐富了，自從執行長宣布執行長宣布以來已經過去了幾個月了。我只想了解您對您在業務中談論的 2 或 3 個最重要策略優先事項的看法，我們如何衡量您在執行方面是否成功？

Yes. Thanks, Neil. I think you're seeing it demonstrated in the quarter. I mean our focus is on execution and delivering what we set out to deliver at the beginning of the year. And I think you're seeing the great work of our 2,000 employees delivering the results with the improved well productivity, driving down capital costs, and increasing efficiencies. And so that's really how we're measuring ourselves internally is delivering what we set out to at the beginning of the year. And I think this quarter is a good example of what we hope to do. And it's really just a testament to our inventory of deep high-quality wells that we can do this for a long time into the future, so for decades, just given the depth of inventory we have in the Midland Basin.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。我想你會在本季看到這一點。我的意思是，我們的重點是執行和交付我們在年初制定的目標。我認為您會看到我們 2,000 名員工的出色工作，他們透過提高油井生產力、降低資本成本和提高效率來交付成果。因此，這就是我們內部衡量自己的方式，也就是實現我們年初設定的目標。我認為本季是我們希望做的事情的一個很好的例子。這確實證明了我們擁有優質深井庫存，我們可以在未來很長一段時間內做到這一點，所以幾十年來，只要考慮到我們在米德蘭盆地的庫存深度。

And then the follow-up is just return of capital, your 75% of free cash flow went back to shareholders and was balanced between the base dividend share repurchases. Maybe you can talk about how you're thinking about the share repurchases or the variable dividend of the flywheel of the return of capital. And is 75% the right number here? Or should we focus on the at least 75%.

然後後續就是資本回報，你的自由現金流的 75% 回到股東手中，並在基本股息股票回購之間進行平衡。也許你可以談談你如何看待股票回購或資本回報飛輪的可變股息。 75% 是正確的數字嗎？或者我們應該關注至少 75%。

Neil, it's Neal as well. Look, you're precisely right. The return of capital framework really provides us a flexibility to allocate capital between variable dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. Really based on where we see the best value for shareholders. Also considering the diverse shareholder base that we have, which includes income-oriented investors as well, really kind of employ a balanced approach to assessing the variable dividend versus opportunistic share repurchases.

尼爾，也是尼爾。你看，你說得完全正確。資本回報框架確實為我們提供了在可變股息和機會性股票回購之間分配資本的靈活性。真正基於我們認為股東最大價值的地方。另外考慮到我們擁有多元化的股東基礎，其中也包括以收入為導向的投資者，確實採用了一種平衡的方法來評估可變股息與機會主義股票回購。

So I think going forward, we anticipate a component of each on a quarterly basis, but it will shift quarter-to-quarter really based on where we see value, really stepping in the market and being opportunistic as you were this past quarter. 75% in terms of return of capital to shareholders, that's kind of -- as we talk about it based on the framework kind of a firm number. But we have said that will utilize the balance sheet if we see the opportunity and the chance to really step it in to the market if the stock drops precipitously. So I think that's always a definite possibility.

因此，我認為展望未來，我們預計每個季度都會有一個組成部分，但它會根據我們看到的價值逐季度變化，真正進入市場並像上個季度一樣抓住機會。就股東資本回報率而言，75%，這就是我們基於公司數位框架所談論的。但我們說過，如果我們看到機會，我們將利用資產負債表，如果股價急劇下跌，我們將有機會真正介入市場。所以我認為這始終是一種確定的可能性。

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

Scott and Rich. My first question is you guys announced your plans to raise your IRR thresholds on the third quarter call last year, I was wondering how much of the well productivity gains are reflected in your results in the first half of the year. And how much do you see is still on the come? And maybe you could give us a sense of your secret sauce or what you're doing to kind of bolster your well productivity at this point?

斯科特和里奇。我的第一個問題是，你們在去年第三季的電話會議上宣布了提高內部收益率門檻的計劃，我想知道你們上半年的業績中反映了多少油井生產力的提高。您認為還有多少是即將發生的事？也許您可以讓我們了解您的秘密武器，或者您目前正在採取哪些措施來提高油井生產力？

Sure, Arun. Great question. I'd say it's what we've talked about in the past is we are really focused on developing our full stack development across our inventory thing. And so that you've seen that move. And then you've also seen as you move to the 15,000-foot laterals, which is something unique to our acreage position that -- we have a deep inventory of those. And so I think it's the combination of those things that are really driving the productivity results as we expected coming into the year.

當然，阿倫。很好的問題。我想說，這就是我們過去討論過的，我們真正專注於在庫存方面進行全端開發。所以你已經看到這個舉動了。然後，當您移動到 15,000 英尺高的支線時，您還會看到，這是我們的面積位置所特有的——我們對這些支線有深入的庫存。因此，我認為正是這些因素的結合才真正推動了我們今年預期的生產力結果。

It's probably happened a little earlier in the year than we anticipated, but it's still something that the well results are fantastic. The team has done a great job on execution and something that I think by the updated guidance, you can see will continue into the second half of the year. So that's really -- the plan is not anything fancy. It's just developing our great acreage position with full stack development, which I think it maximizes recoveries and improves and is the optimized way to get the highest rate of return.

今年發生的時間可能比我們預期的要早一些，但油井結果仍然很棒。團隊在執行方面做得很好，我認為透過更新的指導，您可以看到這一點將持續到今年下半年。所以這確實是──這個計畫並不是什麼奇特的東西。它只是透過全堆疊開發來開發我們的巨大種植面積位置，我認為這可以最大限度地提高回收率和改善率，並且是獲得最高回報率的優化方式。

Great. And my follow-up, Rich, you're taking down your 2023 CapEx by about 3% below expectations by the $125 million. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of if you have any thoughts on 2024 CapEx or how to think about 2024 CapEx given some of the efficiency gains, deflation and the fact that you could add 1 to 2 rigs to kind of deliver that 0% to 5% growth.

偉大的。我的後續行動，Rich，您將 2023 年資本支出降低約 3%，比預期低 1.25 億美元。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對 2024 年資本支出是否有任何想法，或者考慮到一些效率提升、通貨緊縮以及您可以添加 1 到 2 個鑽機來實現這一目標，如何考慮 2024 年資本支出0 %到5%的成長。

Yes. I think 2024, as I mentioned on John's question, is going to be really highly capital efficient. I just think when you're -- the growth that we're showing in 2023, when you think about growing in the upper half of our 0% to 5% next year, you basically got a good jump start in it, just with what's happened in 2023. So we see '24 as very capital efficient.

是的。我認為，正如我在約翰的問題中提到的，2024 年的資本效率將會非常高。我只是認為，當你考慮到明年 0% 到 5% 的上半部分增長時，我們在 2023 年所展示的增長，你基本上就獲得了良好的開端，只需2023 年會發生什麼。我們認為「24」的資本效率非常高。

Hopefully, it's even better with some deflationary pressure on the cost side of things. It's too early for me to kind of predict what that's going to look like just given where oil prices are and what -- where oil prices may be headed the back half of this year. So we'll have to wait and see, but it's something our supply chain team is working on day in and day out to see how we can make sure we have favorable pricing going into 2024. But all said, I think you're right that it's going to be a very capital-efficient program in '24 based on what we know today.

希望在成本方面存在一些通貨緊縮壓力的情況下情況會更好。考慮到石油價格的現狀以及今年下半年石油價格可能走向的情況，我現在預測情況還為時過早。因此，我們必須拭目以待，但我們的供應鏈團隊正在日復一日地努力，看看如何確保我們在 2024 年之前擁有有利的定價。將是24 年資本效率非常高的計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber of Citigroup.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的史考特‧格魯伯。

You guys have been adding simulfrac crews,[e-frac] crews this year and your completion efficiency is really impressive. But is it still getting better? And is there -- are the gains sufficient such that you can possibly drop a frac crew on a normalized basis.

你們今年一直在增加 simulfrac 工作人員、[e-frac] 工作人員，你們的完成效率確實令人印象深刻。但情況還在好轉嗎？是否有－收益是否足夠讓你可以在標準化的基礎上放棄壓裂人員。

Scott, it's something that the teams are working on every day to drive that efficiency. I think it will be harder for us to add another simulfrac just because of the movement of logistics, mainly is the biggest thing. But it's not to say the teams aren't looking at it. But we have gotten more efficient. The teams are really having less non-productive time more efficient on location. And so that's -- the ideal goal is to do that.

Scott，這是團隊每天都在努力提高效率的事情。我認為僅僅因為物流的移動，我們就很難添加另一個同像，這主要是最重要的事情。但這並不是說團隊沒有關注它。但我們的效率提高了。團隊的非生產時間確實減少了，現場工作效率也提高了。所以，理想的目標就是要做到這一點。

So ultimately, that's the focus of the teams is to continue to improve that efficiency longer term. There's other things like on the localized sand mine would be another thing that we're working on. We've got two of those. We're looking at a third one in 2024 that would reduce those well costs that it could be applied to in '24. So there's things like that. The teams are continuing to work on that hopefully will allow us to either further improve well costs in '24.

因此，最終，團隊的重點是繼續長期提高效率。還有其他事情，例如局部沙礦，將是我們正在研究的另一件事。我們有兩個。我們正在考慮在 2024 年推出第三個方案，這將降低 24 年可能應用的油井成本。所以就有這樣的事情。團隊正在繼續努力，希望這將使我們能夠在 24 年進一步改善油井成本。

Got it. And just on another initiative to reduce well costs and improve capital efficiency, the 15,000-foot program. I think it consisted of around 100 wells this year. As you start to plan for next year, how will that figure change? Is it going to go up meaningfully?

知道了。而這正是另一項旨在降低油井成本並提高資本效率的舉措，即 15,000 英尺計劃。我認為今年大約有 100 口井。當您開始計劃明年時，這個數字將如何變化？它會有意義地上漲嗎？

I think the goal is for it to go up. They're still planning on know what that looks like, how meaningfully it goes up is really just balancing where we're at in the field and logistics to go with it in timing. But given the higher rates of return, obviously, more of those we can move into the front of the program, the better. And then really the less wells we drill and less activity we have as well to get the same production targets. So definitely a great advantage to the company and something that we're working on and so modestly increase in '24, what I'd say, today, but it's still work in progress.

我認為目標是讓它上漲。他們仍在計劃知道它是什麼樣子，它的上升有多麼有意義，實際上只是平衡我們在現場的位置和後勤工作，以便及時配合它。但鑑於回報率越高，顯然，我們可以將更多的內容移至該計劃的前面，就越好。事實上，為了達到相同的生產目標，我們鑽探的井越少，活動也越少。所以這對公司來說絕對是一個巨大的優勢，也是我們正在努力的事情，並且在 24 年會適度增加，我想說的是，今天，但它仍在進行中。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo of TPH.

您的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

Just to dig in a little bit. Obviously, the well improvement year-to-date has been fantastic. I was curious, as we look at the state data, the Spraberry in particular, for you all have seen a big improvement I'm curious if that's due to the high grading dynamics for the 2023 program, the spacing design changes you guys have implemented or any other factors that you could point to that is really driving that productivity gain for the Spraberry?

只是為了稍微挖掘一下。顯然，今年迄今的進步非常出色。我很好奇，當我們查看狀態數據時，尤其是 Spraberry，因為你們都看到了很大的改進，我很好奇這是否是由於 2023 年計劃的高分級動態、你們實施的間距設計變化所致或者您能指出的任何其他因素真正推動了Spraberry 生產力的提高？

Yes, Matt, I don't have the specifics on that zone. But I'd say just more broader picture, really the full stack development we're seeing across all zones. I think when you look in the state data that the improvement by developing out a full stack is just a better way to maximize recoveries and returns. And so that's really been our focus. And in terms of the 15,000-foot laterals we're doing those across all zones as well. So I just think it's -- I don't know the specifics on the lower Spraberry, in particular. But overall, the well performance has been fantastic as you can see from the data.

是的，馬特，我不知道該區域的具體情況。但我想說的是更廣闊的前景，實際上是我們在所有區域看到的全端開發。我認為，當您查看狀態資料時，透過開發完整堆疊進行改進只是最大化回收率和回報的更好方法。這確實是我們的重點。對於 15,000 英尺的橫向測試，我們也在所有區域進行這些測試。所以我只是認為——我不知道下部 Spraberry 的具體情況。但總體而言，正如您從數據中看到的那樣，井的性能非常出色。

Perfect. And then just as a follow-up, maybe for Scott. I know you spent a lot of time looking at the broader macro environment. We've seen over the last 2 years, the private operators driving a huge amount of shale growth given the sugar high in the development program. Just curious, your views on how the industry might evolve over the next couple of years as it relates to private operator inventory management and also supply growth moving forward as we've seen a pretty significant cut to the rig count.

完美的。然後作為後續行動，也許是史考特的。我知道您花了很多時間研究更廣泛的宏觀環境。在過去的兩年裡，我們看到，鑑於開發計畫中的含糖量很高，私人業者推動了頁岩油的大量成長。只是好奇，您對該行業在未來幾年如何發展的看法，因為它與私人運營商庫存管理以及未來的供應增長有關，因為我們已經看到鑽機數量大幅削減。

Yes. I think you're starting to see it in the U.S. Lower 48 production to with the recent EIA data. So it's definitely slowing. People are definitely going to run out of inventory over the next several years. Most people, except for a few of us, like Pioneer, another 2 or 3 others in the Permian Basin, which will lead to -- it should lead to extreme consolidation. So that will continue. And it's all based on inventory. And there's private equity is running out of opportunities to divest.

是的。我認為根據最近的 EIA 數據，您已經開始在美國 Lower 48 的生產中看到這一點。所以它肯定會放緩。在接下來的幾年裡，人們肯定會耗盡庫存。大多數人，除了我們中的一些人，例如先鋒公司，還有二疊紀盆地的另外兩三個人，這將導致——它應該導致極端的整合。所以這將繼續下去。而這一切都是基於庫存。而且私募股權公司正在失去撤資的機會。

Your next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum of Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

Thanks Rich, Neal and the Scott. I appreciate the time this morning. A lot has been covered already, but I was curious, just going back to a slide where you talk about just well productivity that you're estimating this year and the gains. And you do see, I guess, some greater outperformance as you get into a longer life for the well beyond 2 years. I guess I'm curious. One, what have you seen to date, I guess, in the initial like 3 to 6 months of wells that you've put online this year relative to the program last year and the year before in terms of this percentage of outperformance on a per foot basis?

謝謝里奇、尼爾和斯科特。我很珍惜今天早上的時間。已經涵蓋了很多內容，但我很好奇，只是回到一張幻燈片，其中您談論了您今年估計的生產力和收益。我想，當你的壽命延長到兩年以上時，你確實會看到一些更出色的表現。我想我很好奇。一，我想，到目前為止，您在最初的 3 到 6 個月的油井中看到了什麼，相對於去年和前年的計劃，您今年上線的油井表現優於去年的百分比。

David, great question. That graph really includes actuals to date and then the forecast over that 24-month period of what we anticipate. I'd say the real benefit is as we did these artificial lift refinements and really customize artificial lift by zone and by area, but that's really paid dividends and just drawing down the wells quicker, allowing to bring that productivity forward. And so we've just seen the benefits of that, and you can see it in the state data, the higher productivity from those wells by just really managing the artificial lifts and customizing it where appropriate.

大衛，好問題。該圖表實際上包括迄今為止的實際情況以及我們預期的 24 個月期間的預測。我想說，真正的好處是，我們進行了這些人工舉升改進，並真正按區域和區域定制了人工舉升，但這確實帶來了紅利，只是更快地開採油井，從而提高了生產率。因此，我們剛剛看到了這樣做的好處，您可以在州數據中看到，透過真正管理人工舉升並在適當的情況下對其進行定制，這些井的生產率會更高。

I appreciate that. And then maybe just a little bit more color on that side. As you move more to 15,000-foot laterals you saw the capital guidance coming down this year, but how is that changing some of the spend either per pad or per area on facilities like water infrastructure? And is that something that should tick up with sort of completion intensity or lateral length intensity over time? Or is that something that's going to be trending in a more positive direction in '24 and '25 .

我很欣賞這一點。然後那一邊可能會多一點顏色。當您進一步向 15,000 英尺的支管方向移動時，您會看到今年的資本指導方針有所下降，但這對每個場地或每個區域在水利基礎設施等設施上的支出有何影響？隨著時間的推移，這是否會隨著完成強度或橫向長度強度的增加而增加？或者說這會在 24 和 25 年朝著更積極的方向發展。

Yes. I think longer term, it's going to -- I mean, '24, '25 is probably not too different than what it was in 2023. But longer term, as more of the basin gets developed, we can use existing facilities and infrastructure and take advantage of that, so that capital should moderate over time as we've talked about. The 15,000-foot laterals in terms of the facilities that go with those, yes, they've got a little more volume to handle, but the economics are so strong, as you can see that it's very worthwhile and in and around areas where we're going to add additional wells in time, too. So overall, like we talked about, it's all pointing to more capital-efficient operations longer term.

是的。我認為從長遠來看，我的意思是，「24」、「25」可能與2023 年的情況沒有太大不同。設施和基礎設施，利用這一點，正如我們所討論的那樣，資本應該隨著時間的推移而放緩。就與之配套的設施而言，15,000 英尺的支管，是的，它們要處理的容量更大一些，但經濟性非常強勁，正如您所看到的，在我們所在的地區及其周邊地區，這是非常值得的。因此，總的來說，正如我們所討論的，這一切都指向長期資本效率更高的營運。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold of RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

Just another question on the productivity improvement and specifically with the 15,000-foot wells. When you look at the initial performance and what you're seeing over a longer dated time, do you see those producing as prolifically on a kind of productivity per foot basis? Or is it more of a shallower decline longer term? What is the, I guess, differential between what you're seeing on the longer laterals versus, say, a standard 10,000-foot lateral?

這又是一個關於生產率提高的問題，特別是 15,000 英尺深的井。當您查看最初的表現以及在較長時間內看到的情況時，您是否認為這些表現在每英尺生產力的基礎上是高產的？還是長期來看下降幅度較小？我猜想，您在較長的支管上看到的情況與標準的 10,000 英尺支管之間有什麼區別？

Yes, great question. And really what we're seeing with the artificial lift and modifications is that they're maybe not quite, but almost essentially basically 50% better like you'd expect from a 10,000-foot lateral on a productivity per foot. So sometimes we're limited by the fluid, we can move until there's a short -- (inaudible) where they're flatter because of these bigger ESPs, high-pressure gas lift, we're moving more fluid volumes and therefore, drawing them down quicker and getting basically on that, what I'd say, a proportionate curve to be a 10,000-foot lateral. Hopefully that helps.

是的，很好的問題。事實上，我們在人工舉升和改裝中看到的情況是，它們可能不完全是，但幾乎基本上比您預期的 10,000 英尺側向每英尺生產率提高了 50%。因此，有時我們會受到流體的限制，我們可以移動，直到出現短暫的（聽不清楚），由於這些更大的ESP、高壓氣舉，它們變得更平坦，我們正在移動更多的流體量，因此，繪製他們下降得更快，基本上，我想說的是，一條 10,000 英尺橫向的比例曲線。希望有幫助。

Yes. No, that's helpful. And then going back to shareholder returns and maybe this one's for Neal. How do you think about the fixed dividend? Obviously, you gave some pretty good color on that you've got a balanced investor base some like income and obviously some like buybacks. But what is your goal on that fixed dividend moving forward? Like where do you want it to be? How competitive in the growth kind of pace of it?

是的。不，這很有幫助。然後回到股東回報，也許這是尼爾的回報。您如何看待固定股息？顯然，你給了一些很好的說明，你有一個平衡的投資者基礎，有些像收入，有些顯然像回購。但您對固定股利的未來目標是什麼？例如你想要它在哪裡？競爭的成長速度是怎麼樣的呢？

Yes, that's a great question, Scott. You've seen our commitment to a strong and growing base dividend. We've increased it consistently over the previous 6 years. And recently, just last previous quarter, we increased it by an additional 14%. Our current base dividend, if you think about the total yield package, we're at 3.3%, which outpaced the S&P 500 at 1.5%. So we believe the base dividend is extremely important and an avenue of return to our shareholders. So going forward, I would expect that base dividend increase roughly commensurate with our production growth. But again, it's a very important return avenue for us in terms of getting that capital and cash back into shareholders' pockets.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，斯科特。您已經看到了我們對強勁且不斷增長的基本股息的承諾。在過去的六年裡，我們一直在增加這個數字。最近，就在上個季度，我們將其額外增加了 14%。如果考慮到總收益率，我們目前的基本股息為 3.3%，高於標準普爾 500 指數的 1.5%。因此，我們認為基本股利極為重要，也是股東回報的一個途徑。因此，展望未來，我預期基本股利的成長與我們的產量成長大致相當。但同樣，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的回報途徑，讓資本和現金回到股東的口袋。

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade of Johnson Rice.

你的下一個問題來自約翰遜·賴斯 (Johnson Rice) 的查爾斯·米德 (Charles Meade)。

Rich, I just have -- just 1 question for me. it's about the reduction of the rig and the average rig count for the year. So you reduced the range by 1. Am I right to think that since that's happening for back half -- for the back half of the year that you're actually reducing the rig count in the back half of the year by 2. And maybe tell me if that's the right way to think about it and give a little more color if those rigs are already down or this is a -- it's going to happen in the next couple of months or just more color there if you could.

Rich，我只有一個問題要問我。這是關於鑽機數量和年度平均鑽機數量的減少。所以你將範圍減少了 1。這些設備已經停機，或者這將在接下來的幾個月內發生，或者如果可以的話，請提供更多的顏色。

Yes, Charles, good question, and you're spot on. I mean the average rig count is for the year. So we have rig count ebbs and flows just with our activity level. So it's not always stagnant. We have some that roll off and bring ones on. But directionally, you're right that we have dropped multiple rigs at this point. really reflecting that average rig count [can't remember 1]. So you're exactly right.

是的，查爾斯，問得好，你說得很對。我的意思是全年的平均鑽孔機數量。因此，我們的鑽機數量隨著我們的活動量而變化。所以它並不總是停滯不前。我們有一些可以滾動並帶來一些。但從方向上來說，你是對的，我們此時已經放棄了多個鑽孔機。真正反映了平均鑽孔機數量[記不清 1]。所以你是完全正確的。

Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My first question is just on well costs. I'm just wondering, given the well -- obviously, well productivity everybody's been talking about certainly noticeable for you all and potential deflation. I'm just wondering how could we -- how would you all have us consider about well cost maybe through the end of the year, in particular in '24 .

我的第一個問題是關於油井成本。我只是想知道，考慮到每個人都在談論的生產力——顯然，生產力對你們所有人來說肯定是顯而易見的，以及潛在的通貨緊縮。我只是想知道我們如何——你們如何讓我們考慮可能到今年年底的油井成本，特別是在 24 年。

Yes, still early for '24. So I hate to get there, but obviously, with moving the capital down our well costs are -- you can take that $125 million and divide it out and that's what we're seeing in terms of decrease in well cost going forward because of just the improved program.

是的，24 年還早。所以我不想這麼說，但顯然，隨著資本的降低，我們的油井成本是——你可以把這 1.25 億美元分開，這就是我們所看到的油井成本未來下降的原因，因為改進後的程序。

Like I said, the key kind of deflationary things that are out there, really OCTG steel and fuel and chemicals that we're seeing. We're seeing things on a few other things, but that's where the majority of the savings is coming from and then just reduced activity like we talked about. So overall, trending the right way and hope to see those continue and everybody is working on that.

就像我說的，關鍵的通貨緊縮因素是我們所看到的 OCTG 鋼鐵、燃料和化學物質。我們在其他一些事情上也看到了一些事情，但這就是大部分節省的來源，然後就像我們所說的那樣減少了活動。總的來說，趨勢是正確的，希望看到這些趨勢繼續下去，每個人都在為此努力。

Yes, it certainly seems like it, Rich. And then secondly, maybe for Neal, just on the balance sheet and shareholder return. You all done a great job on the shareholder return that's been talked about. It looks like net debt went up a little bit. So I'm just wondering on a go forward, how do you balance all those things, I guess, maybe Neil asked more specifically, should we think about net debt starting to go down more materially through the end of the year and into next year?

是的，看起來確實如此，里奇。其次，也許對尼爾來說，只是資產負債表和股東回報。你們在我們所談論的股東回報方面都做得很好。看起來淨債務略有上升。所以我只是想知道下一步，你如何平衡所有這些事情，我想，也許尼爾問得更具體，我們是否應該考慮淨債務在今年年底和明年開始大幅下降？

Yes, that's a good question. I mean in a higher commodity price environment, we're going to be putting more and more cash on the balance sheet. We've talked here as a management committee, the importance of having low debt -- gross debt as well as net debt. So I mean it's our goal to really drive net debt lower over the medium term and short term as well. So yes, I would say we'll continue to relatively put cash on the balance sheet and continue to pay off debt where we can. But our goal is to keep net debt low and we kind of set that target about 0.5x. And I would say that's kind of our bogey.

是的，這是一個好問題。我的意思是，在大宗商品價格上漲的環境中，我們將在資產負債表上投入越來越多的現金。我們作為管理委員會在這裡討論了低債務（總債務和淨債務）的重要性。所以我的意思是，我們的目標是在中短期內真正降低淨債務。所以，是的，我想說我們將繼續在資產負債表上相對地投入現金，並繼續盡可能地償還債務。但我們的目標是保持較低的淨債務水平，我們將該目標設定為 0.5 倍左右。我想說這是我們的忌諱。

Your next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Derrick Whitfield。

Congrats on a strong front. Taking 15,000-foot laterals, perhaps 1 step further. There's been a notable uptick in the industry commentary this quarter on E&P achieving positive results on wells with laterals in the 15,000 to 20,000 foot range. with your improved outlook on 15,000-foot laterals, a, do you have a sense of how many locations you have an inventory that could support 20,000-foot laterals, and b, are there any technical limitations or concerns you have with drilling 20,000-foot laterals?

恭喜你擁有強大的戰線。橫向移動 15,000 英尺，也許多了 1 步。本季度，業界對勘探與生產在 15,000 至 20,000 英尺範圍內的井上取得積極成果的評論顯著上升。隨著您對 15,000 英尺支管的展望有所改善，a，您是否了解自己有多少位置可以支持 20,000 英尺支管，b，您在鑽探 20,000 英尺支管時是否存在任何技術限製或擔憂側向？

Yes. I think it's a great question. And so I don't know the exact count on 20,000. Obviously, it's acreage-specific in terms of what -- how many wells of our 1,000-plus could be 20,000. What I'd probably say is we've drilled the longest ones we drilled just slightly over 18,000-foot I noted in our commentary.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題。所以我不知道 20,000 的具體數字。顯然，它是根據具體面積來計算的——我們的 1,000 多口井中有多少口可能是 20,000 口。我可能想說的是，我們已經鑽探了最長的鑽探，略高於 18,000 英尺，我在評論中指出。

And I think as we get out there longer and larger there becomes a little bit more risk with that. We're very comfortable with the 15,000 to 18,000 range. But I know other peers have done 20,000-foot laterals successfully. So it's not the technology, just like when we started and got to 12,500 and thought that was the limit that the technology and equipment and tools get better and better. So to the extent we can do longer laterals, it's more capital efficient. We think it's the right way to go. And if we can get the right drawdown, then it improves those IRRs and returns. So we're going to continue to test it. But so far, what we've done is 18,000-feet with very successfully. So hopefully, we can continue to extend that over time.

我認為，隨著我們在那裡的時間越來越長、規模越來越大，風險就會變得更大。我們對 15,000 到 18,000 的範圍感到非常滿意。但我知道其他同行已經成功完成了 20,000 英尺的側向移動。所以這不是技術的問題，就像我們剛開始達到 12,500 的時候，我們認為這就是技術、設備和工具變得越來越好的極限。因此，就我們可以做更長的支線而言，它的資本效率更高。我們認為這是正確的做法。如果我們能夠獲得正確的回撤，那麼就會提高 IRR 和回報。所以我們要繼續測試它。但到目前為止，我們已經完成了 18,000 英尺的飛行，非常成功。因此，希望我們能夠隨著時間的推移繼續延長這一期限。

Great. And as my follow-up, with your gas marketing strategy that you've outlined on Page 12, how are you thinking about Pioneer's role in LNG over time and desire to be more connected with international gas prices?

偉大的。作為我的後續行動，根據您在第 12 頁概述的天然氣行銷策略，您如何看待先鋒公司隨著時間的推移在液化天然氣領域的作用以及與國際天然氣價格建立更多聯繫的願望？

Yes. No, something we've been thinking about a lot. And we obviously, on a gross basis are probably 1.3 Bcf a day of gas. And so just from a diversification standpoint, we are looking at the LNG markets and the new LNG facilities coming on and looking at what the economics are of being able to diversify a portion of our gas to European or Asian markets and link them to a TTF or JKM price. And so definitely something we're evaluating and looking at it won't be for a, call it, 10% to 20% of our gas that we may, over time, add to that. Obviously, the facility has got to get built. So it's still few years out, but definitely something that we're interested in and looking at longer term and think makes sense from a diversification standpoint to pricing markets.

是的。不，我們一直在思考這個問題。顯然，我們每天的天然氣總量可能為 1.3 Bcf。因此，僅從多元化的角度來看，我們正在研究液化天然氣市場和即將建成的新液化天然氣設施，並研究能夠將我們的部分天然氣多樣化到歐洲或亞洲市場並將其與TTF 聯繫起來的經濟效益。因此，我們正在評估和研究的東西絕對不會是我們可能隨著時間的推移而添加的 10% 到 20% 的天然氣。顯然，該設施必須建成。因此，這還需要幾年的時間，但絕對是我們感興趣的東西，著眼於更長期，並認為從多元化的角度到定價市場是有意義的。

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

I want to go back to productivity, again, if you don't mind, but ask the question a little differently maybe. When you look at the chart of how the cumulative productivity is improving. It looks like it's more of a kind of a later stage recovery. And I guess I'm figuring you haven't got a lot of those long laterals on yet. So my question is, what's the proportion of activity currently that's long lateral? And how would you expect that to evolve? Because obviously, that's kind of play into how this productivity improvement feeds through to production.

如果您不介意的話，我想再次回到生產力問題，但也許可以稍微不同地問這個問題。當您查看累積生產力如何提高的圖表。看起來這更像是一種後期恢復。我想我認為你還沒有穿很多長側支線。所以我的問題是，目前長橫向活動的比例是多少？您預計情況會如何發展？因為顯然，這在生產力提高如何影響生產方面發揮了作用。

Yes. Maybe a couple of comments, Doug. One, I think you may be reading too much into the graph because there's really -- the wells are -- it's just the forecast of our technical team forecasting those wells and as they would a 10,000-foot well. But in terms of our total program, I mean, we've got 100-plus long laterals that we're planning on putting on location -- on production this year, and that's out of a total of roughly 500 wells. So call it, 20% of our activity is long laterals in 2023. So hopefully, that helps.

是的。也許有一些評論，道格。第一，我認為您可能對圖表進行了過多的解讀，因為確實存在 - 油井 - 這只是我們技術團隊對這些油井的預測，就像它們對 10,000 英尺深的油井的預測一樣。但就我們的整體計劃而言，我的意思是，我們計劃今年將 100 多個長支管投入生產，而這不在總共約 500 口井中。這麼說吧，到 2023 年，我們的活動將有 20% 是長支線。

How do you expect that to evolve? Will it become a bigger proportion going forward? Or is that a good run rate?

您預計情況會如何發展？未來佔比會更大嗎？或者說這是一個很好的運行率嗎？

No, I think it's probably on of the earlier questions. I think it will move slightly higher. We'll have to kind of see as we fit them in and make sure that from just all the logistics that go with it. But obviously with 35% increase in IRRs the more we can pull those forward, the better it is and the less wells we have to drill on an annual basis to get that same production growth. So it's always a balance, but the intent is to probably drill a few more than 100 in 2024 and beyond.

不，我認為這可能是之前的問題之一。我認為它會稍微走高。我們必須在安裝它們時進行觀察，並確保所有與之相關的後勤工作都能做到這一點。但顯然，隨著 IRR 增加 35%，我們能夠將其向前推進得越多，效果就越好，並且我們每年需要鑽探的井就越少才能獲得相同的產量增長。因此，這始終是一種平衡，但目的是在 2024 年及以後可能鑽探 100 多個。

Your next question comes from the line of Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德（Roger Read）。

Yes. Not going to hammer you anymore on well productivity. I think that's been hit. But I did want to come back to the base dividend growth outlook. You mentioned dividend grows with production but I was curious if you're buying back shares as well, should we think of it as production adjusted for share count as well? Or -- And then the other part of that question is how do you incorporate maintaining a premium yield? Or does that actually matter to you premium yield relative to the S&P 500?

是的。不會再在油井生產力方面打擊你了。我想這已經被打擊了。但我確實想回到基本股息成長前景。您提到股息隨著產量而增長，但我很好奇，如果您也回購股票，我們是否也應該將其視為根據股份數量調整的產量？或者——這個問題的另一部分是如何維持溢價收益率？或者相對於標準普爾 500 指數的溢價收益率對您來說真的很重要嗎？

Good questions, Roger, and I would say, look, the base dividend, as I was talking about in terms of growing commensurate with production growth is on an absolute basis. But you're right, and that's a great way to look at it, as you buy back shares on a per share basis that actually will prove beneficiary better for those that are holding equity. So I think that's a good way to think about it as well.

羅傑，問得好，我想說，看，基本股息，正如我所說的與產量增長相稱的增長是絕對基礎的。但你是對的，這是一個很好的看待它的方式，因為你以每股為基礎回購股票，這實際上會證明對於那些持有股權的人來說是更好的受益人。所以我認為這也是一個很好的思考方式。

As you think about the yield relative to the S&P 500. I mean it's -- for us, it's nice and it's a goal to be above that yield for certain. But as we've talked about before, we really want to sensitize the ability to pay that dividend. We view the dividend as being sacrosanct. As a commitment to our investor base. So it's one that we can -- one that we ensure that we can (inaudible) at all at lower oil prices. So that's important to us as well.

當你考慮相對於標準普爾 500 指數的收益率時。但正如我們之前討論過的，我們確實希望提高支付股息的能力。我們認為股息是神聖不可侵犯的。作為對我們投資者基礎的承諾。因此，這是我們能夠做到的一件事——我們確保我們能夠（聽不清楚）在油價較低的情況下做到這一點。所以這對我們也很重要。

Now as we grow the production base that provides us a greater cash flow base to support that yield going forward and support the increase of the dividend in absolute terms going forward as well. So that's kind of how we view it here. But again, it's something that we are very focused on, and it's very important to us, and it's very important to our shareholder base as well. So we'll continue to grow that base dividend as we have historically, but more commensurate with production growth on a go-forward basis.

現在，隨著我們生產基地的擴大，這為我們提供了更大的現金流基礎，以支持未來的收益率，並支持未來絕對股息的增加。這就是我們在這裡的看法。但同樣，這是我們非常關注的事情，對我們來說非常重要，對我們的股東基礎也非常重要。因此，我們將像歷史上那樣繼續增加基本股息，但與未來的產量成長更相稱。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

你的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的Paul Cheng。

Rich, two questions please. One of your major competitors has been testing now and it seems like they have success -- have been successful in improving the recovery rate. From your standpoint, wondering that your Pioneer have tried that or whether that you think based on today's technology and pricing, this kind of activity could be support economically. That's the first question.

瑞奇，請教兩個問題。您的主要競爭對手之一現在已經進行了測試，看起來他們已經取得了成功——成功地提高了恢復率。從您的角度來看，想知道您的先鋒是否已經嘗試過，或者您是否認為基於當今的技術和定價，這種活動可以在經濟上得到支持。這是第一個問題。

Second question is that if we look at your oil cuts in 2019 about 61%, 62% in the first half down to about 52%, 53%. Just want to know whether that is just naturally because natural gas (inaudible) at a slower pace than oil, so as a result in naturally that (inaudible) might this or that is because you are moving into a more gassy portion of your portfolio? And if that's the case, what's the trend line you expect over the next, say, 1 or 2 years?

第二個問題是，如果我們看看你們2019年的石油減產量從上半年的61%、62%左右下降到了52%、53%左右。只是想知道這是否是自然的，因為天然氣（聽不清楚）的速度比石油慢，所以結果自然是（聽不清楚）可能是因為你正在進入你的投資組合中更多的氣體部分？如果是這樣，您預計未來（例如 1 年或 2 年）的趨勢線是什麼？

Thanks, Paul. Maybe I'll take the first one. Just on the technology standpoint, given our size and scale in the basin and how many wells we're completing per year. We're -- we understand or see most of what's happening in the basin from a technology standpoint. Our teams are working on technology to improve recoveries day in and day out and doing excellent job at it. So we're not aware of any significant changes that are out there from any of our peers in terms of completion designs or things that are radically changing recoveries.

謝謝，保羅。也許我會選擇第一個。僅從技術角度來看，考慮到我們盆地的規模和規模以及我們每年完成的井數量。我們從技術的角度了解或看到了盆地中正在發生的大部分事情。我們的團隊日復一日地致力於改善恢復的技術，並且做得非常出色。因此，我們不知道我們的同行在完井設計或從根本上改變採收率方面做出了任何重大改變。

And what I'd tell you, the things that we're working on, as I mentioned in our comments are things like our enhanced oil recovery to improve the recovery ability we're only recovering, call it, 6% to 8% of the resource in the ground today. And so enhanced oil recovery, hopefully will allow us to improve that. And we still got more testing to be done. But it's technologies like that, that we're working on to improved recoveries like I'm sure a number of our peers are.

我要告訴你的是，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們正在努力的事情是提高石油採收率，以提高我們僅恢復的採收能力，稱之為 6％ 至 8％今天地下的資源。因此，提高石油採收率有望使我們能夠改善這一點。我們還有更多測試要做。但我們正在研究類似的技術來提高恢復率，我相信我們的許多同行也在這樣做。

In terms of the oil cut, I think you saw where we're at kind of 52%, 53% recently, just as a normal function that the oil cut comes down over time, particularly as we slowed our growth, that happens. But longer term, I think when you look at it and we look at the modeling, it really trends towards 50% towards the later part of this decade. And so it's -- yes, it gradually moved down slowly. Some of it is a function of growth. But overall, it's not moving dramatically going forward. And we're not -- we're focused on oil development. And so we're not getting gassy or anything (inaudible) than just from the normal occurrence of how the wells perform. So hopefully, that helps.

就石油削減而言，我認為您最近看到了我們的水平為52％、53％，這是石油削減隨著時間的推移而下降的正常功能，特別是當我們放緩增長時，這種情況就會發生。但從長遠來看，我認為當你看它並且我們看模型時，它確實會在本十年的後半段趨向於 50%。所以它是——是的，它逐漸緩慢地下降。其中一些是增長的函數。但整體而言，未來並沒有顯著進展。我們不是——我們專注於石油開發。因此，除了井的正常表現之外，我們不會產生氣體或任何其他東西（聽不見）。希望這會有所幫助。

Your next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani of ROTH MKM.

您的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Leo Mariani。

To just follow up briefly on that oil cut sort of comment here. So Obviously, very strong beats on production this quarter, but a little bit kind of less so on oil sort of at the high end. I mean, you went from 53% oil cut, first quarter to 52% this quarter. So I don't want to make too much about 1 quarter, but maybe there was some just additional gas recovery. You talked about focusing on oil development going forward and not necessarily gassier, but is there anything to kind of the new program or perhaps as you look to sort of high grade a little bit just the zones you focused on are a little bit more gassy. Just trying to get some of the local color on the recent change here.

這裡只是簡單地跟進一下石油減產的評論。顯然，本季的產量表現非常強勁，但高端石油的表現卻稍弱一些。我的意思是，石油削減量從第一季的 53% 減少到本季的 52%。所以我不想在第一季賺太多錢，但也許只是有一些額外的天然氣回收。您談到了未來重點關注石油開發，不一定是天然氣含量更高，但是新計劃是否有任何內容，或者也許當您尋求更高品位時，您關注的區域天然氣含量更高一些。只是想了解這裡最近的變化的一些當地色彩。

Yes. No. And appreciate the follow up. And I would say as it relates to specifically to the second quarter. I mean we had the benefit of -- our processors having really strong plant yields. So that definitely helped during the quarter, plus we continue to add field compression out there and so lowering line pressure has helped. And so all those things have benefited that the gas production in the quarter. And obviously, we're going to try and maximize production and continue to do those things that are efficient going forward.

是的。不。我想說的是，因為它與第二季特別相關。我的意思是，我們的優勢在於——我們的加工商擁有非常高的植物產量。因此，這在本季度肯定有所幫助，而且我們繼續增加現場壓縮，因此降低管線壓力也有所幫助。因此，所有這些因素都使本季的天然氣產量受益。顯然，我們將嘗試最大限度地提高產量，並繼續做那些高效的事情。

But like I said, I think it's a slow decline towards 50% to the back half of this decade and it's really nothing to do with the wells that we're drilling or the change in the wells. It's just the normal process of what happens over time as we get a bigger and bigger base in the mix of oil and gas.

但正如我所說，我認為到本世紀後半葉，產量會緩慢下降至 50%，這與我們正在鑽探的井或井的變化無關。隨著時間的推移，隨著我們在石油和天然氣混合物中的基礎越來越大，這只是正常的過程。

And Leo, to be clear, following up, Rich, it's not related to the new wells that we're popping. Those oil cuts are what they have been historically. So there's no change at all related to that in terms of zones or where we're drilling or anything similar, as Rich pointed out.

Leo，需要明確的是，Rich，這與我們正在開採的新井無關。這些石油減產是歷史上的情況。因此，正如里奇指出的那樣，就區域或我們鑽探的地點或類似情況而言，根本沒有任何變化。

Okay. No, that's helpful for sure. And then just to follow up on well productivity. It certainly seems like you folks have credited the a lot of the strong production performance that you've seen already in '23 and you're expecting more than that in the second half to some of the changes made.

好的。不，這肯定有幫助。然後只是為了跟進油井生產力。當然，你們似乎已經將 23 年中已經看到的許多強勁的生產績效歸功於你們所看到的，並且你們對下半年的一些變化的期望會更高。

But it strikes me that a lot of these changes weren't implemented until the kind of second half of 2022. So presumably, they're just kind of starting to hit now in the last handful of months. So seems like as we work our way into the end of the year into next year, we should see an even larger just change in sort of productivity as the percentage of kind of new production really gets a lot bigger over the next couple of years. So seems like if the trend continues, you guys will continue to be able to sort of improve your capital efficiency each year for the next couple of years and sort of do more with less. It seems like we're just getting started on the program here. Am I thinking about that the right way?

但令我驚訝的是，其中許多變化直到 2022 年下半年才實施。因此，當我們從年底到明年的時候，我們應該會看到生產力有更大的變化，因為未來幾年新生產的百分比確實會變得更大。因此，如果這種趨勢持續下去，你們將能夠在接下來的幾年中每年繼續提高資本效率，並以更少的資源做更多的事情。看來我們的計劃才剛開始。我的思考方式正確嗎？

Yes, Leo, I say that we started probably earlier there in terms of moving, and we only made some, what I'd call, minor changes to the program from full stack. And so we've built that into our production guidance ranges and our capital forecast. Clearly, that everything you laid out as the goal and what the teams are working on, but we would think we've baked that into our guidance. So I just -- I don't want to -- not think people -- we haven't baked in because we have.

是的，Leo，我說我們在移動方面可能更早開始，並且我們只對整個堆疊的程式進行了一些我所說的微小更改。因此，我們已將其納入我們的生產指導範圍和資本預測中。顯然，您所製定的所有目標以及團隊正在進行的工作，但我們認為我們已將其納入我們的指導中。所以我只是──我不想──不認為人們──我們還沒有融入，因為我們已經融入了。

This concludes the question-and-answer portion of today's call. I will now turn the call over to Rich Dealy for closing remarks.

今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我現在將把電話轉給里奇·迪利 (Rich Dealy) 進行總結發言。

I really appreciate everybody joining the call today. Thank you all for your time. I hope you guys enjoy the rest of your summer and look forward to seeing you in upcoming conferences as we get into the early fall. So everybody, have a great rest of your week. Thank you.

我非常感謝大家今天加入電話會議。感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間。我希望你們度過了餘下的夏天，並期待在初秋到來時在即將舉行的會議上見到你們。所以大家，本週好好休息。謝謝。

Thank you. And this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。