PVH Corp (PVH) 2014 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning everyone and welcome to the PVH Corp. first-quarter 2014 earnings conference call. This webcast and conference call is being recorded on behalf of PVH and consists of copyrighted material. It may not be recorded, rebroadcast or otherwise used without PVH's written permission.

Your participation in the question-and-answer session constitutes your consent to having anything you say appear on any transcript or replay of this call. The information being made available includes forward-looking statements that reflect PVH's view as of June 4, 2014, of future events and financial performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties indicated in the Company's SEC filings and the Safe Harbor statement included in the press release that is subject of this call.

These risks and uncertainties include PVH's right to change its strategies, objectives, expectations and intentions and its need to use significant cash flow to service its debt obligations. Therefore, the Company's future results of operations could differ materially from historical results or current expectations.

PVH does not undertake any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement including without limitation any estimate regarding revenue or earnings. Generally the financial information and guidance provided is on a non-GAAP basis as defined under SEC rules. Reconciliations to GAAP are included in the referenced earnings release which can be found on www.pvh.com and the Company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC in connection with the release.

At this time I am pleased to turn the conference over to Mr. Manny Chirico, Chairman and CEO of PVH.

Thank you very much Jennifer. Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us. Joining me on the call is Mike Shaffer, our Chief Financial Officer; Dana Perlman, our Treasurer and Head of Investor Relationship; and Ken Duane, our CEO of Heritage Brands and North American Wholesale.

Looking at results for the quarter, although we came in in-line with our earnings guidance for the first quarter, we were disappointed that we needed to lower our EPS guidance by $0.10 for the year. To be specific, the guidance takedown is a reflection of the near-term sales and margin pressure in our North American businesses. I strongly believe that our long-term growth strategies for our Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger businesses remain intact and that the planned strategic investments we are making in our Calvin Klein business will accelerate sales and earnings in the second half of 2014.

Let me get into each of our businesses by geographic region. In North America, our business in the first quarter was clearly negatively impacted by the unseasonably cold weather. As the weather improved in April, we saw an improvement in sales and store traffic trends.

Our Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger businesses were on-plan for the first quarter. In our retail business the Tommy comps were up 2% while Calvin Klein comps were flat to last year. Our wholesale businesses performed well and achieved plan and delivered a 2% to 4% sales increase for the quarter.

Our Heritage businesses struggled in the first quarter in North America with retail comps down a disappointing 11% and our wholesale EDI replenishment businesses negatively impacted by week store traffic trends at our key accounts. We have seen our North America sales trends improve in the second quarter across all of our businesses. Our retail comps at Calvin and Tommy are working up 2% to 3% while our Heritage comps have improved to minus low single digits.

We are planning the second quarter to be promotional given the macro retail environment and have lowered our second-quarter margin expectations to reflect this.

Moving to Europe, our Tommy Hilfiger European business continued its strong performance with overall revenues up about 8% driven by strong retail comps of plus 6% as well as retail square footage growth. Strong sales trends have continued into the second quarter with comp sales up mid-single digits. At wholesale, our business came in on-plan for the first quarter.

We continue to plan our full holiday sales up about 5% based on our order books for the season. Our early selling of the pre-spring season is indicating a continuation of these strong sales trends and could positively impact our fourth-quarter sales plan.

The Calvin Klein European business continues to be under pressure, particularly our jeans business. We are planning this business down low double digits for the first half of the year as we eliminate off-price sales and reposition the business for the new fall jeans product launch in the second half of the year.

Moving to Asia, our Calvin Klein business continued its strong performance in the first quarter posting a high single-digit sales increase despite the lack of the Chinese New Year in the first quarter. This performance was driven by strong sales performance in our China and Southeast Asia businesses.

Sales trends in the second quarter in China and Southeast Asia have continued their strong performance; however, our business in Korea has weakened driven by the ferry accident which has significantly impacted the total consumer spending in Korea. We have seen this business improve over the last 10 days and are continuing to closely monitor the situation in Korea.

In Latin America, our business and Mexico and Brazil continue to post high single-digit revenue increases in local currencies. We are planning this business to grow high single digits in local currency for the year; however, for the second quarter we are planning the business flat due to the World Cup Soccer Tournament that is taking place in Brazil during the month of June.

We expect consumer spending to be negatively impacted in that month because of the tournament due to store closures during the matches that will occur in Brazil.

Let me update you on some of the integration that is going on in the business. We continue to execute our plans and are on-track with all our processes and system conversions.

Let me give you an update on some of strategic investments we are making to build a solid foundation for our Calvin Klein jeans and underwear business into the future. These strategic investments fall into six broad categories.

On the people side, we have filled all key positions across the Calvin Klein jeans and underwear global businesses. On the systems and infrastructure side, we have completed all system conversions in North America and Europe and over the last three months have successively converted a number of systems in Asia. There have been no surprises in this area since the last time we updated you and we are very comfortable with our integration timetable.

Moving to the off-price area, we are in the midst of significantly reducing our off-price sales and warehouse club sales in North America and in Europe to bring that overall jeans and underwear sales distribution in line with the healthy mix of our other Calvin Klein businesses. We expect this process to continue through the end of this fiscal year.

We are also in the midst of upgrading quality and design of the Calvin Klein jeans product. We should begin to see the benefits of these initiatives in the second half of this year with products hitting the stores in August and September.

We are also elevating the presentation and point-of-sale marketing of the Calvin Klein jeans and underwear presentations at retail. This will be an ongoing process. Let me give you a few examples of our new shops for Calvin Klein.

In North America, in the jeans and underwear area, we are touching over 200 doors throughout North America. We are specifically hitting Herald Square and Union Square in the Macy's stores; the key Lord & Taylor flagship stores here in New York; in Canada, in Toronto, at The Bay and some of the significant stores.

Just to remind everyone, and the jeans area, in a number of the top doors at our key partners in North America, the Calvin Klein jean presentation was eliminated from the sales mix both in men's and women's jeans. That is in the process of being rectified as we go forward. You should start to see those new doors coming on-board in the third and fourth quarter of this year into the first and second quarter of 2015.

We are spending in total in capital and new shop expenditures in jeans and underwear in excess of $12 million. So clearly investment spending there in North America.

Moving to Europe, we are seeing across Europe new jeans presentations in some of the key retailer accounts. Just a few examples, Harrods in London, a new men's jean shop, will be opening there in the third quarter of this year.

In Paris, at Galeries Lafayette in Printemps we will be opening new jeans men's and women's shops. Peek & Cloppenburg we will be opening in their flagship stores in Cologne and Vienna. And there will be various other key doors that will be opening but clearly making significant investments there.

And we continue to make investments in new shops and stores throughout Asia. In China with new stores opening and new concepts opening in Shanghai as well as in Korea and in Hong Kong.

Finally, we are make investments as well in our e-commerce business at both Tommy and Calvin Klein in order to support the significant growth we are experiencing in these businesses for both brands. We continue to make these planned strategic investments in Calvin Klein in order to unlock the full potential of this business over the long term. As we have said, 2014 continues to represent a year of two stories.

The first half is pressured by our strategic investments while fall 2014 will be the first season we offer product by our newly established design and sourcing teams which will be presented in enhanced retail environments. Despite the first-half pressures we feel we are well positioned with solid underlying business fundamentals and have not changed our outlook for the second half of the year where we expect second-half earnings per share to grow 20% over the prior year.

We believe that the strength of our global growth brands, Calvin and Tommy Hilfiger, and the strategic investments we are making today will allow us to drive ongoing earnings-per-share growth of 15%-plus in 2015 and beyond. And with that, I am going to turn it over to Mike Shaffer to quantify some of the results for the first quarter and our guidance.

Thanks Manny. The comments I am about to make are based on non-GAAP results and are reconciled in our press release.

Revenues for the first quarter were $1.96 billion, a 4% increase over the prior year when excluding the Bass business which was sold to G-III in Q4 of last year. Driving our revenue increase over the prior year was a 6% and 4% increase in our Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein businesses respectively. Our Heritage business revenues were down 2% excluding Bass for the quarter.

Our earnings per share for the first quarter was $1.47 at the midpoint of our previous guidance of $1.45 to $1.50. While we were at the midpoint of our range we were disappointed with the performance of our North America businesses which were negatively impacted by the environment and fell short on gross margin for the quarter. The earnings short fall was predominantly in our moderate Heritage North American businesses.

For the second quarter we are projecting earnings per share of $1.40 to $1.45 or an increase of 1% to 4% over the prior year and revenues of about $2 billion or an increase of 4% over the prior year excluding Bass. Our second-quarter guidance reflects the continuation of a highly promotional environment in North America in most channels will be distribution which will negatively impact our gross margin as our customers and competitors move through higher-than-planned inventories.

Our second-quarter EPS guidance reflects a takedown from our initial plans. Additionally, our second-quarter comparison to the prior year is negatively impacted from the Calvin Klein investment spend and $10 million in additional marketing spend always planned in the second quarter and for the full year.

Our earnings per share for 2014 are now planned at $7.30 to $7.40, a $0.10 decline to our previous guidance. Our change in guidance is the result of the takedown in our first-half EPS reflecting the difficult North America environment.

Overall, our 2014 earnings continue to be negatively impacted by the incremental spending in the acquired Calvin jeans and underwear businesses. We have not reduced these investment plans from our initial budgets and we will continue to make all the necessary investments to continue to grow these businesses for the future.

Our second-half EPS estimates remained unchanged and reflect growth of approximately 20% over the prior year. This growth will be heavily weighted to the fourth quarter due in part to anniversary of our investments in the acquired Calvin Klein businesses.

Our revenues for 2014 remain projected at about $8.5 billion or a 5% increase over the prior year excluding Bass. Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein are planned to have revenue increases of 7% and 4% respectively. Our Heritage business revenues are planned to increase 4% excluding Bass.

Our full-year operating margins will be down about 60 basis points versus the prior year, a 10 basis point decrease from our previous guidance resulting primarily from the first-half North America gross margin pressure. Versus the prior year, the 60 basis point decrease reflects an increase in gross margin that will be more than offset by an increase in SG&A expense due in large part to the increased Calvin Klein investments.

For the year, we are projecting our Heritage and Tommy Hilfiger businesses to have operating margins flat to the prior year. Calvin Klein operating margins will be about 14%.

Finally, we continue to pay down -- our debt pay down continues to be projected at about $400 million for the year. And with that, we will open it up for questions.

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Bob Drbul, Nomura.

Hi, good morning. I guess maybe the first question that I have is around the back-half outlook and your sort of reaffirmation on your beliefs of the growth, given some of the challenges of the business thus far, what gives you the confidence in the ability to sort of reaffirm what you think is going to happen in the second half and specifically the fourth quarter?

Well, I think Bob a couple of things. We are making these significant investments on the Calvin Klein side of the business.

We have seen good order flow from our retail partners. We have opened up in North America new doors, some of the top doors I was mentioning in the jeans business and significantly adding square footage in North America.

We are adding about on the men's side, we have an increase planned for the second half of the year in square footage of over 50% and most of that is in top doors. And on the women's side we are looking for an increase of about 35% from a square footage point of view.

So that really positions us I think well as we go forward getting repositioned back in these stores. It also is a, I think it is an endorsement that on the product itself that the retailers are getting behind it now. Clearly the consumers got to vote and we have to see those sell through.

That is in North America. In Europe we have also seen our order book up double digits as we have gone into the back half of the year. That's being offset by the elimination of the off-price and warehouse club sales that were going on.

But clearly we are seeing doors opening there that we haven't been in before in new markets. The challenge there will be, again, the same thing is positioning the goods, getting them in place, I think that is all in front of us. And then seeing how the goods sell through and transact as we go forward.

That is the open issue as we go forward, how we perform at retail in Europe specifically in our own stores and at the department store level. So we have really, we feel positive about that. We have the orders in hand to do the business we feel and then obviously in jeans and underwear there is a big reorder, EDI business that goes on.

We need the sales flow through that follows that. But based on planning and where we are and working closely with our retail partners we feel that is all in place as we go forward.

I would also say, last thing I would say is as we work our way through this second quarter, the comparisons are much tougher for us the first half of the year versus second half of the year. And I think you see that throughout all of retail as we go forward.

So clearly we think there is opportunity in the second half to outperform both our Calvin and Tommy businesses as well as our Heritage businesses. So getting paid back for the investments we are making today, getting paid back for the additional marketing and presentation we are putting in and getting paid for the new product, that gives me confidence as we go forward. And now we have to earn that as those goods hit and sell through.

Great. And then the second question that I have is just the promotional environment currently, you know first quarter, second quarter, how much of it is wholesale promotional concerns versus your own retail business in terms of the promotional cadence?

I think it is two things Bobby. I think if you view the business comparatively and I think that is what you really have to do, comparatively to where it was last year. Last year's first quarter from a weather point of view, from a business point of view was very, very strong.

And as everyone came in, including us, came out of the first quarter into the second quarter, everyone was chasing inventory. They had outperformed sales across the board, there was less clearance pressure, less promotional pressure.

What we are seeing now is across the mall, particularly in the middle of the mall at specialty retail, we are seeing the need to as sales were being missed on a macro level in January, February and March despite a strong April, that didn't make up for some of the sales misses that took place in the beginning part of that first three months of the calendar year. And I think in general inventories are heavier than they need to be and there is more promotional going on.

So we are seeing a higher promotional environment at the outlet stores here in North America and our regular price stores internationally. And we are also seeing at the department store level prices, AUR has been a lower than this time last year, anywhere from 3% to 5%.

Great. Thank you very much Manny.

Michael Binetti, UBS.

Hey, good morning guys. So just to get one thing out as far as our modeling goes and thinking about the cadence in the quarter since you guys are so helpful of how you're planning it. I think there is a lot of pressure to hit the guidance for the year in the fourth quarter.

And you mentioned that well over 20% but I think there is some noise in there related to the way you guided taxes and interest and in the interest expense benefit. So just to avoid a bogeyman, can you help us think about the growth rate that is implied in the back half for the third quarter versus the fourth quarter given those two their variables?

Sure, so I guess just to say, the growth rate for the third quarter we have talked about on EPS was about is mid single digits which and then for of course for the second half of the year is 20% total. So that is the plan.

To get their taxes and interest do play a part. Our tax rate benefit for the year is greatest in the fourth quarter and then secondarily in the third quarter.

So those are the two quarters with the biggest benefit in taxes. And interest because the deal was done to refinance in the first quarter, pretty flat second, third, and fourth quarter.

Okay, thanks. And then Manny could you talk to us a little bit about as you look at you have taken down your assumptions for second quarter based on promotionality in the how are you thinking about promotionally in North America in the second half as you set your guidance maybe relative to what you're thinking for second quarter that you just --

We are looking for a more, a less promotional environment that we've seen in the second quarter, that we've seen in the first half of this year. I think couple of reasons.

I think on a comparative basis, last year's third and fourth quarter were more promotional than last year's first and second quarter in general, as you look at what transpired particularly in the fourth quarter. So I feel there is more opportunity in the third and fourth quarter from a margin point of view to outperform where we were last year than there was in the first half of the year.

And then secondarily, looking at the plans that are out there, I think everyone is really focused on executing to get inventory levels down in the second quarter and position themselves back to school. So all of our key retail accounts are moving through goods with a strong incentive beginning-of-month August to be in a position that inventories are clean and moving forward, having appropriate level of clearance but not to be overly weighted in that area.

So I think the plans are all in place. We know we are moving aggressively to do that in our second quarter. And I think the industry in general is doing it.

Okay. And then if I could just follow-up one last modeling question as you look at second-half guidance.

Can you help us think about what type of comp sales and replenishment trends are you implying there since there are such big variables? Thank you.

Well, I guess in the second half of the year we are looking for comps in general to run. In North America, we are looking for comps in our own retail somewhere in the 2% to 3% range.

We are looking for Europe comps in our Calvin business to be up somewhere around low to mid single digits. And we are looking for the Tommy business in Europe to be up about mid single digits. That is pretty consistent.

All of that is pretty consistent where the trends are today with the exception of the Calvin Klein Europe business which is being planned down now low double digits. But I think that's we are really looking for the third quarter to be an inflection point, new product, new presentation, up against soft results from last year that we should start to see a better comp performance in our Calvin Klein, Europe business with all the initiatives that are in place.

Thanks.

Christian Buss, Credit Suisse.

Jennifer, I think we lost Christian.

Christian, are you there?

Hello, hi there, sorry about that. I was wondering if you could provide some color on the cadence of new product introductions in the jeans wear and underwear business? And also where we should expect to see the store environments change first?

Well, I think the store environments will be changing throughout third and fourth quarter. You will see it in Europe, particularly Northern and Central Europe. You will see it in third quarter throughout the UK, Paris and Germany, big markets to give you a sense.

And I mentioned some of those key retailers. Here in North America, it is an ongoing process third and fourth quarter. But I think you should start to see it, September 1 you should really be in a position if you went to Herald Square, if you went to Union Square, if you went to some of the big doors you should see some significant improvement in the jeans presentation in those departments as well as in the underwear presentation in those stores as well.

So it will be ongoing. But I think it clearly will be visible to you as you visit those doors going forward.

From a product point of view, some of the new product launches, underwear there will be some key launches both on the women's side, on the bra side of the business with key marketing campaigns third quarter supported by some significant marketing.

And on the men's side as well. So we have got some real initiatives going forward that we haven't totally made public yet from a marketing point of view. There will be more about that but be assured there will be significant marketing supporting the launch here in North America, Europe and in Asia.

That is helpful. Thank you. Best of luck.

Erinn Murphy, Piper Jaffray.

Great, thank you, good morning. Manny, I was hoping you could just follow up a little bit more on the Calvin Klein Europe side of the business. As you talk about trends kind of being down double digits in the first half and then starting to improve as we get into the second half.

I mean first question, where should we start to see that off-price product the levels start to be at closer to where you need them to be? And then as we think about just kind of longer term, I think on the last call you talked about the brand kind of the reaccelerating that high single-digit range beyond this year. Is that still how we should be thinking about Calvin?

I guess, let me start with the first part. I think from the elimination of these, of the off-price in New York, I think it should become almost invisible by the end of third quarter that you will see it in market. And I think you might see some product with T.J. Maxx but besides that it should be much cleaner, than significantly cleaner than it has been.

And more importantly I think you'll start to see more of a presence particularly in Northern and Central Europe of regular price Calvin business in some of the key department stores that I laid out before. On the second part of your question --

Just on the overall Calvin Klein brand. I think you have talked about it being closer to high single digit grower over time. Should we still think about that beyond this year?

Yes, I think a lot of these key product investments that we are making I think will be critical for us is that we really feel that there is significant growth in the jeans business here in North America and in Europe as we get to a more healthy base as we go forward. I think that will continue to drive growth.

We won't have the burden of cleaning up as we did this year, cleaning up the off-price sales that we had through you know carryover. So as that gets cleaned up we won't have that in the base.

And that is worth 200 to 300 basis points by itself. So I think clearly not having that headwind in front of us will start to get us, would get us much closer to high single-digit kind of a growth rate. And if we can get some momentum in the European business to go along with the momentum we see in Asia and Latin America I think that is when we could really start to get closer to that double-digit kind of growth again.

Great, that is helpful. And then just the last question for me, just sticking on the kind of European theme, could you just speak to how you are viewing the European consumer currently as we kind of get out of the spring and into the fall season? And then just any other context on regional performance within Europe would be really helpful.

Sure, I think the story continues. The one market that we have not seen any significant improvement in is the Italian market.

It continues to be a challenging market. It continues to be a market as you know it is a market that is dominated by specialty stores as opposed to large department stores. So there is clearly pressure from a credit point of view to continue to sell into that channel worrying about getting paid.

So that puts some pressure on as well. And then the issues that are going on with the consumer in general.

We are seeing Spain for the Tommy Hilfiger business, this is the first season we are actually seeing some growth off of the base where we have gone through now 3.5 years of contraction in that market. So we think that market is leveling off.

And then our Tommy business, as you can just see from the results, up 8% for the quarter in Europe. That is really being driven by Central, Northern Europe, the UK business as well continuing to grow that business both from a retail point of view, square footage growth but also our wholesale bookings. And I mentioned the bookings that seem to be trending again as we go into spring 2015 in a more positive way and consistent to what we are seeing in the fall.

I would say the only other risk out there and we include it in Europe is the Russian market. What has gone on in the Ukraine, we don't have a big business in the Ukraine, in the Crimea area but we have a big business in Moscow, in that whole territory, Eastern Europe there.

And that business for the last month and a half has been under more pressure. We have seen it level off as the crisis, heightened nature of the crisis has also leveled off.

But it is an area that we are watching very closely. And we have a big business there with both Tommy and Calvin Klein and a business that is very profitable for us. So we're watching it very closely.

Okay, thank you guys and best of luck.

Thank you.

Omar Saad, ISI Group.

Hey guys, thanks, good morning. You guys talked a lot about the new product, the new presentation for Calvin Klein going into this fall. Can you maybe elaborate on it a little bit?

What is new, what is new about the product, what is new about the presentation? I know you're going to do some more marketing spend, is it different styling? Is it different quality?

What is the presentation going to look like versus what it used to look like? Maybe just help articulate some of things that we could expect to see when we are in stores this fall.

Okay, Omar on the jean side in Europe and in North America it is a complete redo. It is a completely different sourcing base. It is design, instead of being designed by a central design group in North America we have gone through a regional approach for Europe, Asia and North America.

We think that is more appropriate and with a centralized control of key items and as we go forward we believe that a significant. And there has been an upgrade in piece goods, there has been an upgrade in make.

We believe that the design aesthetic is more in tune with the Calvin Klein consumer. It is a more modern fit. It is a more modern styling.

So on the jean side it is a complete makeover. New packaging, hang tags, branding on product that we think is enhancing to the presentation and will warrant the higher price position that the brand warrants.

And we talked about it how challenged particularly in North America the jeans business has been from an average unit retail point of view. We are just looking to get back to where the brand historically has transacted. And I think we have done that from a design point of view and now the consumer has got to vote to see how that is being presented.

From that point of view, on the jean side it has been a total remake. On the underwear side of the business, it has always been a successful business. The big improvement that we have done is we felt that the packaging was significantly cheapened and the presentation was significantly cheapened.

That is where we are making the investments on the Calvin Klein underwear business, really going after the business in a big way. You can see it you know, Macy's, Herald Square, new shop, men's shop, 2,400 square feet.

On the Calvin Klein women's intimates business, the big focus for us is the bra business. We have always been a major player in the bottoms, panties business and we believe there has been a lack of investment in the actual technical design of the product that has not made it as universal as it should be to fit all women.

So we are relaunching perfectly fit for the third and fourth quarter of this year. That will be a big initiative for us as we go forward. That has been a successful product category and I think with the packaging, with the point-of-sale presentation that we have there I think it is very significant.

Just to reiterate, we will be spending in the third and fourth quarter of this year in excess of $12 million in North America on shop presentations for jeans, underwear and our men's sportswear business. We will also be spending about $5 million to $6 million in Europe in capital expenditure, in presentation at in our own stores as well as in our partners' stores in key accounts.

So it is night and day from what it was. And we believe that is going to really drive the business back and get the Calvin Klein brand repositioned in designer jeans back to where its heritage has been as the brand that started designer jeans around the world.

So, I think we are highly confident of our initiatives and where we are here in North America. And as we have discussed, Europe is just more of a challenge because of the brand positioning there and what needs to happen and how far we need to move the brand. But we are making all the right moves and all the right investments for the longtime growth of the Calvin Klein business there.

And Manny, marketing spend, incremental marketing spend to get the word out to let consumers know that to come back to Calvin Klein. You know it's different, it's new, it's kind of back to where it should be. Is there that kind of spend lined up to support those?

Yes, so look we spend every, it has never been an issue about not spending marketing money because thankfully especially on the jean side that was a contractual requirement that Warnaco had to spend in jeans. So that spend is continuing. We believe now it is more focused, more brand right and it is also coupled with retail presentation.

So it is great that you're out there marketing the brand but if you don't have, if you are not presented well and if you are not presented in an appropriate environment at retail, the marketing by itself is not going to drive it. So we are thinking to a great extent the investments we are making at point-of-sale and capital and in marketing at point-of-sale are as important as our marketing campaign.

Okay, one last question. That is really helpful, Manny.

On the digital side, on the e-commerce side, you know it hasn't been, it is not as big a percentage of your business as it is maybe some of the peers out there where there is a traffic issue going on in retail generally because of the rise of e-commerce. Can you just give us an update, I have got a lot of balls in the air especially around Calvin Klein but an update on how you're strategically thinking about really entering the digital side of the business in a much more material and significant and focused way?

Sure, I think there is two stories. I think the Tommy Hilfiger business which is about an $85 million business today and profitable, has been a business that has been growing 20% or whatever, it is high double digits, that has been a business that with the control of the brand we have been able to make the investments and pull the goods together and make a real statement about the brand and product and transact well there.

And the focus has been Europe and North America. On the Calvin Klein brand, us running a licensing model, it was very difficult for us to really pull together an economic model that worked.

We had a significant brand statement on the Internet and we had a $20 million business that transacted and lost a couple of million dollars. But now that we have control over jeans and underwear and a much bigger control over sportswear, we are able to, going forward we are able to make a much more solidified, cohesive message going forward.

And we're making investments. We will be launching calvinklein.com to sell and transact the commerce site in Europe.

We will be launching throughout Asia in the second half of 2014 into 2015. And we will be also launching in Brazil a site for spring 2015.

So, a significant amount of investment going on. The technical capabilities are there. We are investing in the brand, the site itself as we go forward, that is all built into our numbers.

And we think it is an opportunity for us as we go forward to grow our direct-to-consumer business with Calvin Klein. We have a very big third-party e-commerce business with our partners where we are significantly penetrated at Macy's and our partners throughout Europe and Asia. We have a significant business with some of the pure play retailers as well.

So we know there is demand for the product. And now that we have control of it I think we will be able to given our retail presence in all of those markets we will be able to really take advantage of the e-commerce opportunities there as well for us as we go forward.

Thanks Manny.

John Kernan, Cowen and Company.

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for all the color.

Just can you quantify the investments made specifically around Calvin Klein jeans and underwear on the SG&A side of things that you expect to roll off next year? And then Mike, with CapEx right around $300 million, how sustainable is that? Do you need to push CapEx higher given some of the expansion of e-commerce and a greater push internationally?

Michael, touch CapEx first.

Yes, so the $300 million is this year. I do think we will see a decline in that as we move forward.

I think somewhat closer to $270 million to $275 million would be the number as we go forward. Part of this year does include some one-time investment spend particularly for infrastructure.

Okay, I guess from a investor point of view, we have talked about $55 million to $60 million in strategic investment spending in those areas that I laid out. Combination of spending and elimination of off-price sales at profitable margins and overall profitability to be somewhere in that $55 million to $60 million range, being spread over the second half of last year through the first two or three quarters of this year.

Those expenses don't go away but the need to invest at that level above our normal growth rates, that is what falls off. So we are up against $30 million or so this year of spend associated with the investment spending that is going on at Calvin Klein; principally in the first two quarters of this year, a little bit in the third quarter but principally in the first two quarters of this year.

And we were up against that with the second half of last year to the tune of about $20 million to $25 million in the third, and more significantly in the fourth quarter of last year.

Okay, that is super helpful. Just one final question. Can you talk about some of the opportunities you have in emerging markets to bring back some of your joint ventures and licenses internationally?

Sure, I think the -- I guess the opportunity to bring back licenses and categories long-term is -- our Tommy Hilfiger business in Asia is principally a licensed model. It is about a $550 million business today. Some of that business in China, we are a joint venture partner where we own about 45%. There is an opportunity over the next 2 to 3 years if we can make the economics work that we potentially could bring that back in-house.

In a similar way, the Korea business and the rest of Southeast Central Asia, there's two license agreements that have varying terms between 3 and 5 years to go on those license agreements that clearly as the Calvin Klein businesses in those markets are fully integrated, established, gives us the opportunity to potentially bring those businesses in-house and operate them directly ourselves.

Moving to Latin America, there is a developing business for Tommy in Brazil that is growing very fast, but it is basically $35 million, $40 million it will be this year. That business we believe has the potential to be between $100 million to $150 million over the next 3 to 4 years, 3 to 5 years. And I think that is an opportunity given the strength of our Calvin Klein business in Brazil that as we look at that business developing over time, again, we have the option to bring that business in-house 4 years from now if it makes sense and we can make the economics work.

And it is a similar story in Mexico as well. We have a very healthy Tommy Hilfiger business. It is $150 million in those markets. We have a Calvin business that we operate directly ourselves. Finding the right business model there, which might be combinations of both, could really work well for us as we go forward. So we're looking at that as well.

When you look at product categories then on the Calvin side in North America, the tailored clothing area is an area that we think is a natural fit for us given our strength in the dress furnishing business, with neck wear and dress shirts. And then secondarily the whole women opportunity that G-III does just a fantastic job in operating and has grown that business so well and now I am really talking long term.

Clearly that is a license that is 9 to 10 years today but as that business comes forward trying to work out a business model that maybe we are more directly involved in is something we have been looking to do. So those are broad strokes, some of the big opportunities that aren't necessarily factored into our growth strategies.

Okay, that is super helpful. Thank you.

Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group.

Good morning everyone. Manny, as you think about the CK transformation and what is happening with the gross margin pressure in North America, looking out towards the fourth quarter and into 2015, can you parse together as you think of the gross margin pressure and the changes that you see will happen, does inventory come down, does product improve, and how do you see that with the CK business in Europe?

Is it more promotional there? Do you see pricing improving? Thank you.

Okay, so I guess when you said fourth quarter 2015 you meant 2014.

Exactly.

Okay, so look I think it is a couple things. I think we are in North America the Calvin Klein business with the exception of jeans is very healthy. Our margins there are on under the least amount of pressure overall that we are seeing.

And I think as we move forward, the new product initiatives what we were up against significant liquidation sales last year I think there is a real margin opportunity for us in the fourth quarter of 2014 as we go forward in North America. I think in general, I think last year's fourth quarter once we got past Thanksgiving last year, it got significantly promotional. The tighter calendar, we talked about less days last year, I don't want to go back and rehash all that.

The very challenging January that really occurred. I think I don't anticipate that repeating itself. And that is not built into our numbers that that type of pressure will repeat itself.

So I think relatively speaking from a comparative point of view, first half, second half the second-half comparisons are much easier as we start to cycle those going forward particularly in North America. In Europe, again, the Tommy business we have not seen any significant margin pressure there at all. That business is very healthy.

It continues to perform very well and I would expect that only to continue into the second half of the year. Talking specifically about Calvin Klein, we are looking for some significant margin improvement in the third and fourth quarter, principally because we were in liquidation mode all of last year.

So sales were under pressure last year throughout. We were liquidating goods, we weren't happy with the product quality. We didn't have the right presentation.

So I think there, on a specific basis for us, we clearly think that there is margins opportunity as we go forward. I think that there will be naturally some level of promotion in the market.

But I think for us it is about first getting some regular price selling that we didn't almost have at all when it came to the jeans side of the business. So there is a big margin opportunity for us in the third and fourth quarter that we need to capitalize on.

Thank you.

Joan Payson, Barclays.

Hi, good morning. In terms of the Calvin Klein distribution rationalizations, and I think you started touching on this in terms of Europe, but with regard to the off-price versus full-price mix in North America, what do you think that could be at the end of this year? And then in terms of the European business, which has always been more heavily focused on the southern regions, what do you think the northern versus southern split could be pro forma?

Just to let -- could you repeat that? You broke up on this side, could you just repeat the last part of the question about northern, southern, I didn't hear it.

Just in terms of pro forma for the distribution closures, what do you think the northern versus southern mix could be in Europe?

Okay, sure. Let me start with North America. I think in North America there is always a healthy mix of off-price to regular price selling. You need to clean your goods.

The T.J. Maxx channel is a natural channel to do that. And if you do it in an appropriate way, and limit the distribution it could both be profitable selling and it could be -- it is not brand denigrating in any way.

And we feel by the end of this fiscal year we will have that balance from a dollars point review in the off-price channel where we want it to be both in jeans and underwear. And as we are growing the regular price business in North America, that percentage should come in-line over the next year or two as we go forward.

But I think it is important to keep in mind that the Calvin business relatively speaking is so -- it's distribution in other product categories, sportswear, if you move into the women's side of the house our accessory business, that distribution is so clean that when you look on balance we are not overly distributed from a brand point of view in the off-price channel. There is just too much jeans and underwear in that channel that needed to be cleaned up.

So I think once we get through this fiscal year we feel in perfectly positioned as we go forward. Moving to Europe, I think what you have to keep in mind is the jeans business was principally focused on Southern European distribution. At least on the regular price point of view.

It was very difficult to find prior to 2014 quality jeans distribution in Germany, Central Europe, France, the UK. That is where the major cleanup is going on, and where it is. We have always had good jeans penetration in Spain and we had had a big business in Italy but it was the Italian business was much too much in the off-price channel.

And significantly discounted. And that is the channel that is going to be the biggest challenge for us. That market will be the biggest challenge because one, it is our biggest market and two, it is the market that is feeling the most pressure economically and that continues and that consumer is under more pressure.

So we are very focused on that. We are focused much more on in the Italian market on opening price point jeans there. We will be more promotional in our own stores in the Italian market just because we have to be given our size and where we are.

So again, we are trying to manage that upgrading but we will be less promotional than it has been. It will be cleaner than it has been but we are not going to be able just to turn the spigot off completely in the Italian market.

Okay, great. And then just in terms of your gross margin expectations for the year. If you could provide some additional color just in terms of I guess what the contribution could be from the retail and international expansion compared to the negative impact from promotional activity.

Okay, I guess just two things I want to be clear on. Again, we will talk about gross margin.

We are going to see gross margin, grow gross margin improvement going forward. And that is excellent. But I guess I just want to reiterate a couple of things.

I think off-price sales because they were done under the Calvin Klein label which of the quality that it is selling into that channel of distribution with planned sales was a very profitable transaction for Warnaco. It wasn't brand enhancing but it was very profitable.

So making it 30% margins which were lower than what the overall brand does but with almost no incremental expenses was a very -- so on a gross margin basis eliminating these sales will be enhancing to our gross margin. But will not be enhancing from a profitability point of view since there were so few expenses that went along with that sales transaction. So, Mike will give you some of the guidance specifically for gross margin.

So Joan, what we have talked about gross margin expansion, about 70 bps of improvement for the year. We have talked about a couple of things.

One, as Manny said before, we are doing less promotion which is helping our margin. The mix of business is a big factor. Selling Bass is a factor.

Growth on the international markets where we operate with higher gross margins is a factor. So all that comes together for the year, we still are planning about 70 bps of improvement.

Okay, great, thank you.

Eric Beder, Brean Capital.

Good morning. Could you talk a little bit about JCPenney and what you're seeing at the JCPenney stores? And in terms of -- let's do the JCPenney first.

Okay, look I guess on the Penney�s side, it feels pretty good. Again, sales trends have been positive. I will let them speak for their own comps.

But our business there has been very solid, both the dress furnishings business and our Van Heusen and IZOD sportswear businesses have been very strong, as has our Warner bra business as well. So we are very happy with how JCPenney is performing in the mid-channel for us.

And we haven't those trends have continued into the second quarter for us. So, we are feeling good about that.

And how are you feeling about the Kohl's expansion with IZOD and how does that look for you?

We are very excited about that. That is going to be a big launch for us. We really start to ship that very late second quarter but mostly third and fourth quarter.

It is a major growth initiative for us. There will be a significant marketing spend that will go along with that that Kohl's is making a significant contribution for.

We will also have a significant Shock presentation spend there. So the brand will be presented in an excellent way going forward.

You should start to really see that. I would think in probably September 1 to September 15 you will really start to see the IZOD presence in men's, in kids, in tailored clothing and dress furnishings in that store.

So I think we are very much excited about that. They are excited about getting into this whole -- getting some of the national brands that they are launching second half of the year. And IZOD is clearly on the men's side the big launch for them.

Great, good luck for the rest of the year.

Thank you. Operator, we are going to take two more questions and then call it. It is about 10 o'clock right now.

Okay great. We will take our next question from Howard Tubin, from RBC Capital Markets.

Thanks guys. Assuming 2Q works out the way you expect it to, how should we think about kind of total inventory growth kind of going into 3Q and ending the year?

Michael has got it.

You know look I think as we get through the third quarter, we will see our inventories get more towards flat and then we will see normal growth as we get into the fourth. As we end the year we will start to see more normal growth reflective of sales.

At the end of the second quarter our inventories were up about 3.5%, 4%. Our sales are planned up 1%. I think Manny said it earlier.

Inventories are a point or so high. I guess I would say that the inventory composition is heavily basic weighted.

The piece that is -- bit of a, the overage piece is heavily in basics. And we really don't see much exposure and it is going to take some time to work that down throughout the year. But it is really not a financial exposure for us at this point.

Also we are building our inventories to begin the shipping of IZOD which will ship early third quarter so that is all hitting our warehouses in June and July, that's set up as we go forward. So I think that build up and that fixture fill that goes on is also reflected in there. So the quality of our inventory will be pretty strong by the end of the third quarter and then by yearend I think you will see back to normal levels.

Got it, great thank you.

David Weiner, Deutsche Bank.

Good morning. Dave Weiner from Deutsche Bank. So I just had two questions to end things here.

The first, Manny, you were talking about AUR or increases in the jeans, in the CK jeans business, earlier in the call. Can you just remind us in North America and Europe where those are and where you would like them to go?

And then my second question would be and I don't know if I missed this earlier but can you give some kind of quantification of the early interest you're seeing in Europe and North America on your redesigned CK jeans product? Thanks.

Sure, okay. On AURs I think I don't think I mentioned this on this call before but we have talked about it, is the jeans in North America are going for a seasonal basis all-in, T-shirts, jeans and whatever going out like $25.

The right number for the positioning of the Calvin Klein brand with markdowns and clearance should be closer to $40. Our men's sportswear is $45 to $47 to put it in perspective. Jeans by its nature with the big T-shirt business is going to be lower than sportswear and that includes all the markdowns and clearance that is appropriate for the business.

So for us, it is moving that $25 to that $40 mark and our financial plan calls for that to happen over a three-year period. Starting in the fall season we should see a 10% to 12% improvement in AURs. We are hoping they're closer to $30 as we go forward and then moving that up over the next two years to $35 and then to $40.

So I think it is -- we are doing it in a smart way. We would like it to happen quicker but I think you also have to recognize that the consumer has been trained at this and you can't go overnight and take out the needle, particularly here in North America with some of the promotions that have gone on.

Hopefully we could outperform that but it clearly gives you a sense of how underperforming the jeans business was from a margin point of view. Since the bottoms are ticketed $59, $69, $79 for 80% of the bottoms businesses are at that point and then 20% are a little bit higher than that.

So it just gives you the sense of the kind of pressure that the jeans business has been on. And I think a lot of that just has to do with product and presentation.

In Europe, directionally it is a very similar story. The price positioning in Calvin Klein jeans should be closer to EUR80 in Europe and we have been going now closer to EUR45 in Europe when you factor in T-shirts and everything that goes with it.

So it is a similar opportunity. We think in some of the markets that the brand hasn't had significant distribution in, Northern Europe, Germany, France, the UK and basically central Europe that there is an opportunity to move the out-the-door retails quicker and that will be more challenging to do in southern Europe in the Italian market and the Spanish market.

So those two big markets will be more of a challenge for us to move it. So we have factored all that into our business plans as we have gone forward to really work that through.

But again, over a three-year period we want to move those out-the-door retails to where we believe it is appropriately targeted. We had a Tommy Hilfiger denim product is executing now at the door as a good benchmark for us as we go forward.

It is clearly where the brand should be positioned and how we should go forward. As far as some of the doors, I really spoke about that in detail in where we are seeing some of these increases. But I think the biggest endorsement here in North America is the new doors and our key retail partners opening up new shops in the top 100 doors in the US over the next two years.

And they believe in the brand, the brand performs in every other product category, men's sportswear, women's sportswear, accessories, tailored clothing, dress shirts, across the board. And clearly believe that jeans should be a significant opportunity for the brands since it is its heritage. So that is probably the biggest endorsement we have from a distribution point of view and what we have been able to secure for ourselves in the third and fourth quarter of this year.

Okay. Thanks for your color.

Thank you. Okay, listen, I would like to thank everyone for joining us on the call. We look forward to updating you again in September for our second-quarter results.

Everyone have a good day and speak to you soon. Thank you.

And that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation.