Primerica, Inc. (PRI) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Primerica first-quarter 2026 earnings webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Nicole Russell, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    各位好,歡迎收看 Primerica 2026 年第一季財報網路直播。(接線員指示)請注意,本次會議將被錄音。我現在把會議交給主持人——投資人關係主管 Nicole Russell。請開始。

  • Nicole Russell - Investor Relations

    Nicole Russell - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Primerica's first-quarter earnings call. A copy of our earnings press release issued last night, along with other materials relevant to today's call, are posted on the investor relations section of our website. Joining our call today are our Chief Executive Officer, Glenn Williams; and our Chief Financial Officer, Tracy Tan.

    謝謝接線員,大家早安。歡迎參加 Primerica 第一季財報電話會議。我們昨晚發布的財報新聞稿副本,以及與今日電話會議相關的其他資料,已張貼於我們網站的投資人關係專區。今天與會的有我們的執行長 Glenn Williams,以及財務長 Tracy Tan。

  • Our comments this morning may contain forward-looking statements in accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Litigation Reform Act. We assume no obligation to update these statements to reflect new information and refer you to our most recent Form 10-K filing as may be modified by subsequent Forms 10-Q for a list of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed or implied.

    我們今天上午的發言可能包含符合《證券訴訟改革法》安全港條款的前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔更新這些陳述以反映新資訊的義務,並請參閱我們最新的 Form 10-K 申報文件(以及其後續 Form 10-Q 可能作出的修訂),其中列示可能導致實際結果與明示或暗示內容存在重大差異的風險與不確定性。

  • We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures, which we believe provide additional insight into the company's financial results. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to their respective GAAP numbers are included in our earnings press release.

    我們也將提及若干非 GAAP 指標,我們認為這些指標可為公司財務結果提供額外洞見。非 GAAP 指標與其對應 GAAP 數字之調節表已包含於我們的財報新聞稿中。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Glenn.

    我現在想把電話會議交給 Glenn。

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Nicole, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Our first-quarter results demonstrate the balance and resilience of Primerica's business model. Investments in savings products continue to be a key driver of performance, while the Term Life segment remained a stable contributor to earnings growth. Slides that address our first-quarter results in more detail can be found beginning on slide 7 of our Q1 investor update deck.

    謝謝你,Nicole,也謝謝各位今天早上加入我們。我們第一季的結果展現了 Primerica 商業模式的均衡性與韌性。儲蓄型產品的投資持續是績效的關鍵驅動因素,而定期壽險(Term Life)部門仍是獲利成長的穩定貢獻者。更詳細的第一季結果簡報,請參閱我們 Q1 投資人更新簡報第 7 頁起的投影片。

  • Overall, we delivered a 9% increase in adjusted operating revenues and a 13% increase in adjusted net operating income during the first quarter compared to the prior-year period. Income growth was primarily driven by a 24% increase in earnings from the ISP segment. Adjusted operating EPS increased 19% to $5.96. We continue to generate solid cash flows, which allowed us to return a total of $179 million to stockholders during the first quarter through a combination of $141 million in total share repurchases and $38 million in regular dividends while also maintaining the flexibility to invest in the business.

    整體而言,相較去年同期,我們第一季調整後營運收入成長 9%,調整後淨營運收入成長 13%。收入成長主要由 ISP 部門獲利成長 24% 所帶動。調整後營運每股盈餘(EPS)成長 19% 至 5.96 美元。我們持續產生穩健現金流,使我們在第一季透過合計 1.41 億美元的股票回購與 3,800 萬美元的例行股利,合計向股東回饋 1.79 億美元,同時也維持投資業務的彈性。

  • Turning to distribution. Our entrepreneurial business opportunity continues to resonate with individuals seeking supplemental income as well as those looking for an alternative career path. The middle-income market we serve offers us meaningful growth potential and our representatives are well positioned to meet that need through our financial education-based approach.

    接著談通路。我們的創業型商機持續吸引尋求補充收入的人士,以及尋找替代職涯道路的人士。我們所服務的中等收入市場為我們提供了具意義的成長潛力,而我們的業務代表透過以財務教育為基礎的方法,具備良好條件來滿足該需求。

  • The success of the Primerica businesses built by our field leaders reflects the strength of this opportunity. While we continue to navigate environmental headwinds, we are adapting to current conditions. For example, in response to higher travel costs, we adjusted our spring and summer field event schedule by replacing larger regional events with a series of smaller local events across the US and Canada. We expect higher total attendance from this localized approach.

    我們的外勤領導者所建立的 Primerica 事業成功,反映了此商機的強大。儘管我們仍在因應環境逆風,我們正適應當前情勢。例如,為回應較高的差旅成本,我們調整春季與夏季的外勤活動行程,以一系列在美國與加拿大各地舉辦的較小型在地活動,取代較大型的區域性活動。我們預期此在地化方式將帶來更高的總出席人數。

  • These events will also serve as a platform to launch incentives and promotions, which has historically driven improvements in distribution growth. We believe the actions underway will support improved recruiting and licensing and position us to end the year with Life License sales force flat to up approximately 1% compared to December 31, 2025.

    這些活動也將作為推出獎勵與促銷的平臺,而歷史上這些措施曾帶動通路成長的改善。我們相信目前進行中的行動將支持招募與取得執照的改善,並使我們有望在年底時,壽險執照銷售人力相較 2025 年 12 月 31 日持平至約成長 1%。

  • Focusing on production. First-quarter results reflected the differing dynamics across our two major product lines. Demand for Investment and Savings Products remained at record levels, while our Term Life business experienced softer results. While we recognize the cumulative impact of several years of cost-of-living pressures on middle-income families, we believe some relief is beginning to emerge.

    聚焦於產能(production)。第一季結果反映了我們兩大主要產品線之間不同的動態。投資與儲蓄產品的需求仍處於歷史新高水準,而我們的定期壽險業務表現較為疲弱。雖然我們理解多年生活成本壓力對中等收入家庭的累積影響,但我們認為一些紓解跡象正開始浮現。

  • The Primerica household budget index shows that household income growth has outpaced cost increases for families for nine consecutive months, suggesting that households are gaining ground. However, we recognize this improvement could be temporarily disrupted by higher gas prices related to conflict in the Middle East. We remain optimistic on the longer-term trajectory.

    Primerica 家庭預算指數顯示,家庭收入成長已連續九個月超過成本上升,顯示家庭正在逐步改善。然而,我們也認知到,與中東衝突相關的油價上漲可能會暫時干擾這項改善。我們對較長期的走勢仍保持樂觀。

  • Our complementary business model is designed to provide natural balance with the sales force positioned to serve middle-income families across two core product lines that often respond differently to changing economic conditions. Term Life purchasing decisions are typically made by younger families who tend to be more sensitive to cost-of-living pressures.

    我們的互補型商業模式旨在提供自然的平衡,銷售隊伍可透過兩大核心產品線服務中等收入家庭,而這兩條產品線對經濟情勢變化的反應往往不同。定期壽險的購買決策通常由較年輕的家庭做出,而他們往往對生活成本壓力更為敏感。

  • In contrast, a larger portion of our investment clients are more established and increasingly focused on long-term savings and retirement planning needs. As a result, our distribution model remains very resilient. Looking at Term Life, we issued 74,054 new policies during the first quarter, a 14% decline compared to the prior-year period while estimated annualized issued premiums, which include coverage additions as well as newly issued policies declined 10%.

    相較之下,我們投資客戶中有較大比例更為成熟,並日益聚焦於長期儲蓄與退休規劃需求。因此,我們的通路模式仍具高度韌性。就定期壽險而言,我們第一季核發 74,054 張新保單,較去年同期下降 14%;而估計年化核發保費(包含保障額度增加以及新核發保單)下降 10%。

  • During periods of uncertainty, our educational approach and ability to serve clients in person represent a clear competitive advantage. Although we are seeing early signs of improvement, the level of uncertainty remains elevated, and as a result, we project full-year 2026 Term Life policies issued to be flat to down approximately 2%.

    在不確定時期,我們的教育導向方法以及面對面服務客戶的能力,構成明確的競爭優勢。儘管我們看到改善的早期跡象,不確定性水準仍偏高,因此我們預估 2026 全年定期壽險核發保單數將持平至約下降 2%。

  • Our Investment and Savings Products business delivered another strong quarter with sales increasing 22% to a record $4.3 billion. Sales growth was broad-based across mutual funds, variable annuities, and managed accounts, reflecting several positive underlying trends. Industry trends continue to create favorable tailwinds. The younger generations are saving earlier for retirement and IRA contributions from these groups have been particularly strong.

    我們的投資與儲蓄產品業務再度交出強勁的一季,銷售額成長 22% 至創紀錄的 43 億美元。銷售成長廣泛分布於共同基金、變額年金與管理型帳戶,反映多項正向的基本趨勢。產業趨勢持續帶來有利順風。年輕世代更早開始為退休儲蓄,而這些族群的 IRA(個人退休帳戶)提撥特別強勁。

  • According to industry sources, Gen Z contributed approximately 30% more to their traditional and Roth IRA accounts since the start of 2026 and compared to the same period last year, creating a tailwind for systematic smaller investment contributions. At the same time, Gen X and baby boomers are increasingly focused on preparing for retirement, driving higher rollover activity, and increased demand for variable annuities that provide guarantees.

    根據產業來源,自 2026 年初以來,Z 世代對其傳統 IRA 與 Roth IRA 帳戶的提撥金額,較去年同期約增加 30%,為系統性的小額投資提撥帶來順風。同時,X 世代與嬰兒潮世代愈發專注於退休準備,帶動更高的轉入(rollover)活動,以及對提供保證的變額年金需求增加。

  • These trends benefit our business given our ability to efficiently process a high volume of small recurring transactions in a way other companies cannot while also leveraging the long-standing relationships we built with our more established clients over time.

    鑑於我們能以其他公司難以做到的方式,高效率處理大量小額的定期交易,同時也能運用我們長期與較成熟客戶所建立的關係,這些趨勢對我們的業務有利。

  • Client asset values ended the quarter at $127 billion, an increase of 15% compared to March 31, 2025. We also continue to see positive flows with new net inflows of $362 million in the first quarter of 2026. While we believe the favorable trends driving demand for investment products may continue for the next several years, we remain mindful of the potential for broader market volatility.

    客戶資產價值於季末達 1,270 億美元,較 2025 年 3 月 31 日增加 15%。我們也持續看到正向資金流,2026 年第一季新增淨流入 3.62 億美元。雖然我們認為推動投資產品需求的有利趨勢可能在未來數年持續,但我們仍留意更廣泛市場波動的可能性。

  • Based on current projections, we expect full-year sales growth to be in the upper single-digit range for 2026. Our Mortgage business remained strong in both the US and Canada. During the first quarter of 2026, we had $113 million in mortgage loan volume in the US, 21% increase year over year. We also provide refinancing opportunities and new mortgages to our clients in Canada with a mortgage referral program. In both countries, we recognize higher interest rates may create a headwind going forward.

    根據目前預測,我們預期 2026 全年銷售成長將落在高個位數區間。我們的房貸業務在美國與加拿大皆維持強勁。2026 年第一季,我們在美國的房貸放款量為 1.13 億美元,年增 21%。我們也透過房貸轉介計畫,在加拿大為客戶提供再融資機會與新房貸。在兩個國家,我們都認知到較高利率未來可能形成逆風。

  • As the middle-income market begins to recover from several years of cost of living pressure, the need for financial guidance and education remains as important as ever. Our ability to meet that need is a core strength of our business. While external conditions can create uncertainty, our focus remains unchanged. Our strong fundamentals are grounded in our unique ability to serve middle-income families, positioning us to capture the long-term growth opportunity ahead. With that, I'll hand it over to Tracy for the financial results.

    隨著中等收入市場開始從多年生活成本壓力中復甦,對財務指導與教育的需求仍一如既往地重要。我們滿足該需求的能力是我們業務的核心優勢。儘管外部條件可能帶來不確定性,我們的重點仍不變。我們強勁的基本面根植於我們服務中等收入家庭的獨特能力,使我們得以把握前方的長期成長機會。接下來我把時間交給 Tracy,說明財務結果。

  • Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Glenn, and good morning, everyone. First-quarter 2026 results reflected a continuation of last year's strong financial performance led by robust year-over-year growth in investments and savings products and stable performance in Term Life.

    謝謝你,Glenn,各位早安。2026 年第一季結果延續了去年強勁的財務表現,主要由投資與儲蓄產品的強勁年增成長所帶動,並且定期壽險表現穩定。

  • Starting with the Term Life segment. Operating revenues increased 1% year over year to $465 million, driven by 4% growth in adjusted direct premiums. Pretax operating income was $155 million, a 6% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025.

    先從定期壽險部門開始。營運收入年增 1% 至 4.65 億美元,主要由調整後直接保費成長 4% 所帶動。稅前營運收入為 1.55 億美元,較 2025 年第一季成長 6%。

  • Turning to mortality. Claims experienced during the quarter remained favorable relative to expectations, consistent with the trend observed last year. The benefits and claims ratio was 57.3% compared to 58.2% in the prior-year period. Benefits and claims in the current year included a $7.6 million remeasurement gain, reflecting a combination of favorable mortality experience and a lower persistency.

    接著談死亡率。本季理賠經驗相對於預期仍屬有利,與去年觀察到的趨勢一致。給付與理賠比率為 57.3%,去年同期為 58.2%。本年度的給付與理賠包含 760 萬美元的重新衡量收益,反映有利的死亡率經驗與較低的保單持續率(persistency)的綜合影響。

  • Excluding the remeasurement gain, the benefits and claims ratio was generally consistent. As a reminder, we see a substantial portion of mortality risk through reinsurance, which significantly reduces earnings volatility. Consequently, the Term Life business continued to exhibit financial characteristics that are more fee-based in nature.

    若排除重新衡量收益,給付與理賠比率整體上大致一致。提醒一下,我們透過再保險分攤了相當大部分的死亡率風險,這顯著降低了獲利波動。因此,定期壽險業務持續展現出更偏向手續費型(fee-based)性質的財務特徵。

  • Overall, lapse rates remain elevated relative to our long-term reserve assumptions, which we believe reflects the ongoing financial impact from cumulative cost of living pressures on middle-income families. While higher lapse reduced direct premiums due to the loss of policies, they also have a favorable impact on benefits and claims costs.

    整體而言,解約率相較我們長期準備金假設仍偏高,我們認為這反映多年生活成本壓力對中等收入家庭造成的持續財務影響。雖然較高的解約因保單流失而降低直接保費,但也對給付與理賠成本帶來有利影響。

  • We observed different behaviors for various durations, and we continue to analyze them to understand the underlying trends and contributing factors. The DAC amortization and insurance commissions ratio at 12.3% along with the insurance expense ratio at 7.9% were consistent with the prior period. Finally, the pretax margin was 22.5% compared to 22.1% in the first quarter of last year.

    我們觀察到不同期間呈現出不同的行為表現,並持續加以分析,以了解其背後的趨勢與影響因素。DAC 攤銷及保險佣金比率為 12.3%,以及保險費用比率為 7.9%,均與前一期間一致。最後,稅前利潤率為 22.5%,相較於去年第一季的 22.1%。

  • Looking ahead, we expect adjusted direct premiums to grow approximately 4% on a full-year basis. We anticipate the benefits and claims ratio to be around 58%, the DAC amortization and insurance commissions ratio around 12% to 13%, and the operating margin around 21%. This full-year guidance reflects the predictable and stable nature of our Term Life business. The ISP segment fee-based business model contributes to a performance exceptionally well, supported by strong sales activity and favorable equity market conditions.

    展望未來,我們預期經調整的直接保費在全年基礎上約成長 4%。我們預期給付與理賠比率約為 58%,DAC 攤銷及保險佣金比率約為 12% 至 13%,營運利潤率約為 21%。此全年指引反映我們定期壽險業務可預測且穩定的特性。ISP 部門以費用為基礎的商業模式在強勁銷售動能與有利的股票市場環境支持下,對績效帶來極為出色的貢獻。

  • While stock markets may experience periodic volatility, our ability to deliver consistent growth across market cycles is strengthened by several key factors. These include the size of our underserved market opportunity and the favorable demographic tailwinds, our expanded product lineup, more resilient fund flows compared to the industry, and long-term equity market growth.

    儘管股市可能出現階段性波動,我們在不同市場循環中持續交付一致成長的能力,受到數項關鍵因素的強化。這些因素包括:我們在服務不足市場中的龐大機會與有利的人口結構順風、擴充的產品組合、相較於同業更具韌性的資金流入/流出,以及長期股市成長。

  • During the first quarter, operating revenues increased 21%, while pretax operating income grew 24%. As the segment continues to scale, ISP now represents 40% of consolidated revenues in the current quarter and its faster growth has been an important contributor to improved return on adjusted equity.

    第一季營運收入成長 21%,稅前營運利益成長 24%。隨著該部門持續擴大規模,ISP 在本季已占合併營收的 40%,其較快的成長速度也成為提升經調整股東權益報酬率的重要貢獻來源。

  • Sales-based revenues increased 23% and continued to outpace the growth in commissionable sales, driven primarily by strong client demand for variable annuities on which we earn higher commissions. Variable annuity sales increased 35% compared to the prior-year period. Asset-based revenues increased 23% year over year compared to a 15% increase in average client asset values, reflecting a favorable mix shift towards products that generate higher recurring fee-based revenues.

    以銷售為基礎的收入成長 23%,並持續超越可計佣銷售的成長,主要受惠於客戶對變額年金的強勁需求(我們在該產品上可獲得較高佣金)。變額年金銷售較去年同期成長 35%。以資產為基礎的收入年增 23%,相較於平均客戶資產價值成長 15%,反映產品組合有利轉向可帶來較高經常性費用收入的產品。

  • Demand remains strong for US-managed accounts, reflecting the continued appeal of these products as well as for Canadian mutual funds sold under the principal distributor model introduced a few years ago. Commission expenses for both sales and asset-based products increased largely in line with revenue growth.

    美國管理型帳戶的需求仍然強勁,反映這些產品持續具吸引力;此外,數年前在主要經銷商(principal distributor)模式下推出並銷售的加拿大共同基金需求亦然。銷售型與資產型產品的佣金費用增加,整體大致與收入成長一致。

  • In the Corporate and Other Distributed Products segment, we reported a pretax adjusted operating loss of $6.7 million during the quarter compared to a loss of $8 million in the prior-year period. The largest factor contributing to the year-over-year change was higher net investment income through growth in the portfolio.

    在「公司與其他分銷產品」部門,本季我們錄得稅前經調整營運虧損 670 萬美元,較去年同期虧損 800 萬美元改善。推動年對年變動的最大因素,是投資組合擴大帶來較高的淨投資收益。

  • Finally, consolidated insurance and other operating expenses were $168 million in the quarter, up 3% year over year, driven primarily by higher variable growth-related costs and increased technology investment. Expense growth during the quarter was favorably impacted by the timing of project initiatives.

    最後,合併口徑的保險及其他營運費用本季為 1.68 億美元,年增 3%,主要由較高的與成長相關之變動成本以及增加的科技投資所帶動。本季費用成長亦因專案推動時點而受到有利影響。

  • Looking ahead, as project activity ramps up throughout the year, we continue to expect full-year expense growth in the range of 7% to 8% for 2026. The second-quarter outlook is currently expected to be up around 10% to 12%.

    展望未來,隨著全年專案活動逐步升溫,我們仍預期 2026 年全年費用成長落在 7% 至 8% 的區間。目前對第二季的展望預期約上升 10% 至 12%。

  • Our investment portfolio remains well diversified with an average quality of A. The average rate of new investment purchases was 5% for the quarter with an average credit rating of A. The portfolio had a net unrealized loss of $154 million at the end of March compared to a net unrealized loss of $113 million at the end of 2025. We believe that the unrealized loss is a function of interest rates and not due to underlying credit concerns, and we have the intent and the ability to hold these investments on to maturity.

    我們的投資組合仍維持良好分散,平均信用評等為 A。本季新投資買入的平均利率為 5%,平均信用評等為 A。投資組合於 3 月底的未實現淨損失為 1.54 億美元,相較於 2025 年底的未實現淨損失 1.13 億美元。我們認為未實現損失主要源於利率變動,而非基礎信用疑慮;且我們有意願也有能力持有這些投資至到期。

  • We continued to generate strong cash flow driven by the superior growth of our fee-based ISP business, and the steady premium contribution from our large in-force block of insurance policies. Our holding company ended the quarter with $556 million in cash and invested assets.

    在以費用為基礎的 ISP 業務優異成長,以及我們龐大在保保單(in-force block)所帶來穩定保費貢獻的帶動下,我們持續產生強勁現金流。控股公司於季末持有 5.56 億美元的現金及投資資產。

  • Primerica Life's estimated RBC ratio was 430%. As highlighted in our latest investor deck, Primerica's consistent and high-return business model is differentiated by its revenue mix that is largely fee-like in its economic characteristics. Around 90% of our operating revenues in 2025 exhibit fee-like attributes, which includes the majority of our Term Life business where the mortality risk is largely reinsured.

    Primerica Life 的估計 RBC 比率為 430%。如我們最新投資人簡報所強調,Primerica 一貫且高報酬的商業模式,其差異化在於收入組合在經濟特性上多屬「類費用」(fee-like)。2025 年我們約 90% 的營運收入呈現類費用特性,其中包括我們大部分的定期壽險業務(其死亡率風險多數已再保)。

  • The remaining 10% of our operating revenues represents Life Insurance underwriting revenue for which we retain mortality risk. The company's financial and capital returns are similar to or better than distributed -- distribution-focused peers such as investment and insurance brokerage firms and stronger than traditional life insurance companies.

    其餘 10% 的營運收入為人壽保險承保收入,我們在該部分保留死亡率風險。公司的財務與資本報酬率與以分銷為主的同業(例如投資與保險經紀公司)相當或更佳,並且優於傳統人壽保險公司。

  • With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

    那麼,接線員,請開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

    (接線員指示)BMO Capital Markets 的 Jack Matten。

  • Jack Matten - Analyst

    Jack Matten - Analyst

  • Just the first one on Primerica's middle-income customer base. Just given we've seen gas prices rise materially in recent months, have you seen any kind of meaningful inflection or change in trends around consumer behavior or on the producer side regarding the willingness to travel around and sell policies because of that change? Or is it really kind of the same trend you've been seeing for a little bit of time now with higher pressure and some pressure on cost-of-living trends?

    第一個問題是關於 Primerica 的中等收入客群。鑑於近幾個月我們看到油價明顯上升,你們是否觀察到消費者行為趨勢,或在業務員端因油價變動而影響其外出拜訪與銷售保單意願的任何顯著轉折或變化?還是說,基本上仍延續你們過去一段時間所看到的趨勢,也就是壓力較大,以及生活成本趨勢帶來的一些壓力?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jack, we have not seen any noticeable change in direction. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, what we are seeing over a little bit longer term now for about nine months in a row, our household budget index has indicated that earning power has outstripped the slowed cost-of-living increases, obviously, cost of living continues to increase, but not at the rapid pace of the past and earned income for families is outstripping that. And we've started to see a few positive signs from that.

    Jack,我們尚未看到任何明顯的方向性變化。如我在事先準備的發言中提到,從較長期來看,約連續九個月,我們的家庭預算指數顯示,家庭的賺取能力已超過放緩的生活成本增幅。當然,生活成本仍在上升,但不再像過去那樣快速,而家庭的勞動所得增長已超過其增幅。我們也開始看到一些正面的跡象。

  • Clearly disrupted by the sudden jump in gas prices as a possibility as we track that in the future. But so far, we're not seeing any noticeable change in activity or behavior of either our clients or our reps based on that. I'm sure if it continued or got worse for a long period of time, that's something we keep an eye on, but so far, it's been offset by other gains up to this point, and we actually believe things are moving in a positive direction for most middle-income families.

    未來我們會持續追蹤油價突然跳升是否可能造成明顯干擾。但截至目前,我們並未看到客戶或我們的業務代表在活動或行為上因油價而出現任何顯著變化。我相信若油價長時間持續上升或惡化,這會是我們需要關注的事項;但到目前為止,其他方面的改善已抵銷其影響,而且我們實際上認為,多數中等收入家庭的情況正朝正向方向發展。

  • Jack Matten - Analyst

    Jack Matten - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. My follow-up is on recruiting trends. And you have the shift this year away from your usual larger conventions. I think you said more local events now. I guess do you still expect the cumulative impact of those on recruiting and engagement to be comparable to a typical larger event? And can you -- just any more color you could offer on the types of incentives and promotions that Primerica is planning to turn on this year?

    了解,這很有幫助。我的追問是關於招募趨勢。今年你們從以往較大型的年會/大會轉向,我想你們提到現在更多是地方性活動。我想問的是,你們是否仍預期這些活動對招募與參與度的累積影響,能與典型的大型活動相當?另外,你能否再補充一些細節,說明 Primerica 今年計畫啟動的各類獎勵與促銷方案?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Certainly. A reminder that our largest event, our convention that we do every other year was moved to 2027 to avoid the World Cup, a little challenge finding facilities during the World Cup year, plus it aligned beautifully with our 50th birthday as a company. So our major event still scheduled and unchanged for July 2027.

    當然可以。提醒一下,我們最大的活動——每兩年舉辦一次的年會——已移至 2027 年,以避開世界盃;在世界盃年份要找到合適場地確實有點挑戰,而且也剛好能與公司 50 週年完美契合。因此,我們的重大活動仍按計畫於 2027 年 7 月舉行,安排不變。

  • What we originally had scheduled for this year was what we call regional events and large regions. Three in the US and in East and West in Canada, so a total of five. But what we found out is that people were making decisions to either attend those or wait and attend the larger event in 2027 or just felt like that travel was a burden. And so we kind of call an audible at the line of scrimmage working with our sales force and say, let's move to a larger number of local events.

    我們原本今年安排的是我們所稱的區域活動,涵蓋大型區域:美國三場,加拿大東、西各一場,合計五場。但我們發現,人們在做決定時,要嘛選擇參加這些活動,要嘛選擇等到 2027 年參加更大型的活動,或覺得旅行負擔較重。因此,我們與銷售團隊合作,在臨場做出調整,決定改為舉辦更多場地方性活動。

  • And indeed, we do believe we're going to touch more people total with it's going to create a very busy travel schedule for all of us during the middle of the year, going to more events, but we'll be closer to the people and the total attendance, we believe will be larger. And those events are still large enough to be significant platforms for us to cast our vision and also promote our incentives and so forth. And we do believe a healthy sign is that we do get positive response to our incentives.

    確實,我們相信這樣能接觸到更多人。這會讓我們在年中有非常忙碌的差旅行程,因為要跑更多場活動,但我們會更貼近夥伴,而我們相信總出席人數也會更高。這些活動規模仍足夠大,能成為我們傳達願景、並推廣獎勵方案等的重要平台。我們也認為,一個健康的訊號是,我們的獎勵方案確實能獲得正向回應。

  • In the month of April, we had a recruiting incentive that we had used previously. We had excellent response to that. And so that was a reduced licensing fee that we've used in the past. And so we do believe there is positive response happening when we use incentives. We saw evidence of that in the first month of the second quarter. And so we believe that combination is going to be effective. And that's why while the results were not what we had hoped for in the first quarter on recruiting and licensing, we do believe that turns as the year goes on and becomes more positive.

    在 4 月份,我們推出了一項先前使用過的招募獎勵方案,反應非常好。那是一項我們過去用過的降低執照申請費用(licensing fee)的措施。因此,我們確實認為在使用獎勵時會出現正向回應;我們在第二季第一個月就看到了證據。我們相信這樣的組合會有效。也因此,雖然第一季在招募與取得執照方面的結果不如我們所期望,但我們相信隨著年度推進,情況會扭轉並變得更正向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

    Raymond James 的 Wilma Burdis。

  • Wilma Burdis - Analyst

    Wilma Burdis - Analyst

  • In ISP, what percentage of earnings is driven by AUM versus fees? I think that used to be around 50%, but it seems to have shifted, which would improve the stickiness of ISP earnings. So can you talk about that and how it's trended over time?

    在 ISP 中,獲利有多少比例是由 AUM(管理資產規模)驅動、又有多少是由費用驅動?我記得以前大約是 50%,但看起來似乎已經有所轉移,這會提升 ISP 獲利的黏著度。你能談談這點,以及它隨時間的趨勢變化嗎?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Percentage of AUM earnings coming from AUM versus upfront sales, that might not be want to have a finger to it.

    好的。AUM 收益中來自 AUM(管理資產)本身相對於前端銷售的占比,這可能不是我們想要精確釘死的一個數字。

  • Wilma Burdis - Analyst

    Wilma Burdis - Analyst

  • Yeah, I'm sorry. Yeah.

    對,不好意思。對。

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's alright. I think our current is closer to [60-40, 60 AUM, 40] sales. And so you're right, it is shifting more toward the AUM-based fees as our assets grow, that would be expected. And also as our product mix shifts toward both the managed account product in the US that Tracy mentioned as well as the principal distributor model in Canada, both of those are more AUM-focused. So it's exactly what we would expect. It looks like we're at about [60-40] right now, Wilma.

    沒關係。我認為我們目前比較接近 [60-40,60 來自 AUM、40 來自] 銷售。所以你說得對,隨著我們的資產成長,收入結構會更往以 AUM 為基礎的費用移動,這是預期之內的。另外,隨著我們的產品組合轉向 Tracy 提到的美國受託管理帳戶產品,以及加拿大的主分銷商(principal distributor)模式,這兩者都更偏向 AUM。這完全符合我們的預期。Wilma,目前看起來大約是 [60-40]。

  • Wilma Burdis - Analyst

    Wilma Burdis - Analyst

  • And really, you guys have always been a distribution company. I guess, typically, it was historically more focused on Term Life, but certainly ISP is compelling distribution opportunity as well. And I know you're getting into mortgages and other things. Is that kind of how you view it? Just it's more about distribution and meeting that middle-income customer? And are there any additional products that you think would make sense to distribute?

    而且其實你們一直都是一家分銷公司。我想,過去歷史上通常更聚焦於定期壽險(Term Life),但 ISP 顯然也是很有吸引力的分銷機會。我也知道你們正在切入房貸和其他項目。你們是這樣看待的嗎?也就是說,重點更多在分銷以及服務中等收入客戶?另外,你們覺得還有沒有其他適合分銷的產品?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're right, Wilma. We do view our strength, our unique competitive advantages, our distribution capabilities. And that's the reason even our Life business has distribution characteristics principally, even though it's our own product. And that is very intentional. And the two products that we sell, our major product lines today create an amazing complementary nature as we see right now when one is weak in momentum, the other tends to be very strong. And occasionally, we can get them both strong at the same time. Very seldom are they both weak at the same time. And that's a true strength, we believe, of our business model.

    你說得對,Wilma。我們確實把自身的強項、獨特的競爭優勢,定位在我們的分銷能力上。這也是為什麼即便是我們的壽險業務——雖然是自有產品——本質上也主要呈現分銷特性;這是非常刻意的安排。而我們目前銷售的兩大主要產品線,彼此之間具有非常強的互補性:當其中一條線的動能較弱時,另一條往往會非常強;偶爾我們也能同時兩條都很強。兩條同時疲弱的情況非常少見。我們相信,這正是我們商業模式的一大優勢。

  • We do believe that the Mortgage business is an interesting addition to our distribution capability. It's still a very small business, not necessarily material to our financial results at this time. But it also frees up money as we help clients get their debt load under control that can then be used to be deployed for both protecting and investing for the future. So it helps our two major product lines. And we find it's also a business that clients feel very good after we've helped them with their debt load and tend to refer us to everyone they know in a way that may not even happen with Life or investments. And so we think the Mortgage business has a real positive impact beyond just its own financial capabilities, even though we do expect it to continue to grow and be a financial contributor.

    我們也認為房貸業務是對我們分銷能力的一個有趣補充。它目前仍然很小,現階段對我們的財務結果未必具重大性。但當我們協助客戶把債務負擔控制好,也能釋放資金,讓他們把錢用在未來的保障與投資上,因而能支持我們兩大主要產品線。我們也發現,客戶在我們協助其降低債務負擔後,感受非常好,往往會以一種甚至在壽險或投資業務上未必會發生的方式,把我們推薦給他們認識的每一個人。因此,我們認為房貸業務的正面影響不僅限於自身的財務能力;當然,我們也預期它會持續成長並成為財務貢獻來源。

  • Beyond that, we constantly review opportunities to distribute, but what we generally find is that other products don't have the margins that we're accustomed to. And then if they cannibalize the pocket books of middle-income families, we're simply trading a high-margin sale for a low-margin sale. So it's -- we're going to be very thoughtful before we add any additional products because we want to make sure that they're a net positive, first of all, for the consumer, of course, also for our sales force in Primerica. So there's nothing huge on the horizon right now that we're setting, but we always keep our ear to the ground.

    除此之外,我們也持續檢視其他可分銷的機會,但一般而言我們發現,其他產品的利潤率不如我們習慣的水準。而且如果它們會排擠中等收入家庭的可支配支出,我們等於只是用一筆高毛利的銷售去換一筆低毛利的銷售。所以——在新增任何產品之前,我們會非常審慎,因為我們要確保它首先對消費者是淨正面,當然也要對 Primerica 的銷售團隊是淨正面。目前地平線上沒有什麼特別重大的新項目,但我們一直都會保持關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

    Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

  • Mark Hughes - Analyst

    Mark Hughes - Analyst

  • The Life sales, your guidance for the full year, flat to down 2%, that assumes a pretty nice stabilization as the year progresses. You've been running down kind of mid-teens the last four quarters and now you're lapping that. And so you've got easier comps or not mid-teens, but kind of double digits. What's your confidence or visibility that the Term Life can kind of get back on track, stabilize, maybe up a little bit?

    壽險銷售方面,你們對全年指引是持平到下滑 2%,這代表你們假設今年後續會有相當不錯的穩定化。過去四個季度你們大概是中十幾%的下滑,現在你們正在與那段期間做比較(lap)。所以你們的比較基期變得更容易了——不是中十幾%,但大概是雙位數。你們對定期壽險能回到正軌、趨於穩定、甚至小幅成長的信心或能見度如何?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're right, Mark. It starts with the comps do get a little easier throughout the rest of the year. If you kind of study our momentum trends, momentum doesn't pay much attention to the calendar, but it continued out of our record 2024 through the first quarter of last year to a certain extent. And so we do see the comps getting easier. We also see that those green shoots I mentioned that middle-income families' financial conditions are stabilizing.

    你說得對,Mark。首先,接下來一年其餘時間的比較基期確實會稍微容易一些。如果你研究我們的動能趨勢,動能其實不太會理會日曆,但在某種程度上,它從我們創紀錄的 2024 年延續到去年第一季。因此我們確實看到比較基期變得更容易。我們也看到我提到的那些「綠芽」——中等收入家庭的財務狀況正在趨於穩定。

  • And then we are taking specific actions to try to play into that. It's still early on that financial stabilization I mentioned, and many families don't even recognize it yet. And so what we're doing as a part of our effort to bring value to those families is actually have a focus on helping families identify the emerging positives that might be happening in their budgets early so that they can put those positives to work. I mean if people don't realize that their budget is getting a little breathing room in it, they tend to spend the extra money often without even realizing it. And so we're working hard on opening discussions with families. We've got an interesting prospecting/discussion promotion that we call where's the money, that we're actually asking new and past clients that question.

    接著,我們也在採取具體行動來順勢而為。我提到的財務穩定化仍在早期階段,很多家庭甚至還沒有意識到。因此,作為我們為這些家庭創造價值的一部分,我們的重點其實是協助家庭及早辨識其預算中可能正在出現的正面變化,讓他們能把這些正面變化用起來。我的意思是,如果人們沒有察覺自己的預算稍微有了喘息空間,他們往往會在不自覺中把多出來的錢花掉。所以我們正努力與家庭展開對話。我們有一個很有意思的開發/對話推廣活動,叫做「錢去哪了(where's the money)」,我們會把這個問題拿來問新客戶與過往客戶。

  • And of course, the first response, they say, it what money? And that opens up a conversation of let's take a fresh look at your budget. Let's take a look and see if in spite of gas prices bouncing up on us, if you've got a larger tax refund, if your tax withholding is down, is the cost of auto insurance down, which is the case in many cases, people are changing their auto insurance and saving several hundred dollars a year. And then we can redeploy that toward their other financial needs. And often, when we are the first to identify that for them, they appreciate the value that we bring in that process. And so it's -- that we see a change in their condition.

    當然,他們第一個反應會說,什麼錢?這就開啟了一段對話:讓我們重新檢視你的預算。讓我們看看,即便油價又在上漲,你是否拿到更高的退稅、你的預扣稅是否下降、汽車保險成本是否下降——很多情況確實如此,人們更換汽車保險後每年可省下好幾百美元。然後我們就能把這些資金重新配置到他們其他的財務需求上。通常,當我們是第一個替他們辨識出這些狀況的人,他們會很感謝我們在這個過程中帶來的價值。所以——我們確實看到他們的狀況正在改變。

  • We are using that opening that a change in their financial condition brings to bring more value to them. And then we're also continuing to work on the value of our Life products. We introduced the next-gen product series late in 2022, and we've recently released what we call [next-gen 2.0], which is -- it's not a repricing or a new product line. It's simply continued improvements on that product set that we introduced in late 2022. It's a better client experience. It's improved and faster underwriting processes, greater accuracy in our underwriting, which allows us to offer better pricing, more precise pricing to clients.

    我們正利用財務狀況改善所帶來的切入點,為他們創造更多價值。同時,我們也持續強化我們壽險產品的價值。我們在 2022 年底推出了下一代(next-gen)產品系列,最近也發布了我們所稱的 [next-gen 2.0]。這——不是重新定價或新的產品線,而只是對 2022 年底推出的那套產品持續改良:更好的客戶體驗、更完善且更快速的核保流程、更高的核保精準度,讓我們能提供更好的定價、對客戶更精準的定價。

  • And so all of those things combined give us some confidence that we can make a difference, and we can start building on this opportunity to create momentum throughout the rest of this year. The other thing that we think is an advantage is the 12 months leading up to our convention has always been a period of time that we've been able to use positively to impact both building distribution, our Life business and our Investment business, and that begins in July. So we think we've got several unique dynamics happening between now and the end of the year that can give us some momentum in that product line and in distribution as well.

    因此,這些因素加總起來,讓我們有一定信心能帶來改變,並開始把握這個機會,在今年剩餘時間逐步建立動能。另一個我們認為具優勢的因素是:在我們年度大會(convention)前的 12 個月,一直都是我們能正向運用、用來影響分銷建置、壽險業務與投資業務的一段期間,而這會從 7 月開始。所以我們認為,從現在到年底之間,有幾個獨特的動態因素,能為這條產品線以及分銷端帶來一些動能。

  • Mark Hughes - Analyst

    Mark Hughes - Analyst

  • Yes. Very good. Tracy, your outlook for 21% margin, is that on the same basis, the 22.5% in Q1? And if that's the case, are there some drivers that are in play that could put pressure on that? Or is that -- I know you've kind of held out that 21% guidance is a good long-term result, but it's been better lately. And so is that just conservatism on your part?

    是的。很好。Tracy,你對 21% 利潤率的展望,是以與第一季 22.5% 相同的口徑計算嗎?如果是的話,是否有一些可能造成壓力的驅動因素正在發生?還是——我知道你們一直表示 21% 的指引是良好的長期成果,但最近表現更好。所以這只是你們比較保守嗎?

  • Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Good morning, Mark, again, I would say that the 21%, around 21%, there's certainly some timing of activities that's driving it. And each quarter, the margin may vary some. The first quarter on the performance for Term Life, we definitely benefited from the remeasurement gain, but a lot of that really underlying the continued favorability of our mortality trend. So -- with looking ahead, the other aspect of the favorable expenses due to timing, both of those, for example, we are not going to predict that the mortality is exactly going to show up in the remeasurement gain.

    Mark,早安,再次回答你的問題。我會說大約 21% 的水準,確實有一些活動時點(timing)因素在驅動,而且每一季的利潤率可能會有所波動。第一季在定期壽險的表現上,我們確實受惠於重新衡量收益(remeasurement gain),但其中很大一部分其實反映了我們死亡率趨勢持續有利的基本面。所以——往前看,另一個面向是因時點而出現的費用有利,這兩者例如:我們不會預測死亡率會以完全相同的方式反映在重新衡量收益上。

  • That's one aspect. But if it continues to show up, and that could be a favorable activity based on the current claims experience sort of prediction. And then the other part is timing of expense, which is a negative aspect on the future quarters just because the favorability of projects that we ramp up, and we have a good amount of initiatives that continue to drive, as Glenn mentioned, the growth aspect of our business, because we are continuing to improve our product, improve our underwriting, but also modernize our technology to give the best experience to the clients.

    這是一個面向。但如果它持續出現,那麼基於目前理賠經驗所做的預測,它可能會是一項有利因素。另一部分則是費用時點,這對未來季度而言可能是負面因素,因為先前的有利主要來自於我們逐步加速推進的專案;而且我們有相當多的計畫持續推動,以帶動業務成長,如 Glenn 所提到的,因為我們持續改善產品、改善核保,同時也在現代化我們的科技,以提供客戶最佳體驗。

  • So we have several major projects that we continue to work on to get our clients' experience better, and those projects will ramp up starting second, third quarter, we really, really start to have a lot more activities and expenses. So overall, the 21% reflects some of the quarterly activity, timing differences, but also did not carry forward some of those remeasurement gains, which is the favorable period experience that we're not predicting them to be in the remeasurement gain. So hopefully, that helps.

    因此,我們有幾個主要專案持續推進,以改善客戶體驗;這些專案將自第二、第三季開始加速,我們確實會有更多活動與費用。因此整體而言,21%反映了部分季度活動與時點差異,但也沒有延續部分重新衡量(remeasurement)收益;那些屬於有利的期間經驗,我們並未預期在重新衡量收益中會再出現。希望這樣能有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

    Suneet Kamath,Jefferies。

  • Suneet Kamath - Analyst

    Suneet Kamath - Analyst

  • I wanted to start with the Term Life productivity metric. I mean it's been dropping off here in recent quarters, and I think 1Q is actually one of the lowest we've seen. Is that a metric that, A, you're focused on; and B, have a strategy to try to improve?

    我想先從定期壽險(Term Life)的生產力指標談起。我的意思是,最近幾季它一直在下滑,我認為第一季其實是我們見過最低的之一。這個指標,A,你們是否重點關注;B,是否有策略嘗試改善?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We definitely focus on it because it's a very simple calculation. It's simply the size of our sales force divided by the number of policies we issue. And so first of all, you need to recognize that it's a great tracking mechanism because it's easy to identify. At the same time, it's limited by simplicity. The dynamic that we experienced coming out of 2024 with very successful efforts to grow the size of our sales force. And then when sales momentum slows, simply dividing a record-sized sales force into slowed sales momentum makes the percentage go down.

    是的。我們確實很關注,因為它是一個非常簡單的計算。它就是我們的銷售隊伍規模除以我們核發的保單數。因此首先,你需要認知到它是一個很好的追蹤機制,因為很容易辨識。同時,它也受限於其簡單性。我們在2024年之後所經歷的動態是:我們成功推動銷售隊伍規模成長;而當銷售動能放緩時,用創紀錄規模的銷售隊伍去除以放緩的銷售動能,這個百分比自然就會下降。

  • So I think we have to recognize what it's telling us and not overestimate its sophistication because it's not very sophisticated, it's very simple. But it's important because it's an easy-to-track dynamic over time. And we absolutely -- all of the efforts that I mentioned in response to Mark's question about improving sales, we want to improve the sales number, and that will take care of the fraction. We don't focus on the fraction necessarily, but we absolutely have efforts in place to make our sales force more productive as it is today. As we continue to work against that fraction by growing the sales force at the same time, that puts pressure -- downward pressure on that percentage.

    所以我認為我們必須理解它在告訴我們什麼,不要高估它的精密程度,因為它並不精密,它非常簡單。但它很重要,因為它是一個容易長期追蹤的動態。我們也絕對——我在回應Mark關於提升銷售的問題時提到的所有努力,我們希望提升銷售數字,這就會處理掉分數的問題。我們不一定聚焦在那個比率本身,但我們確實已經採取措施,讓現有的銷售隊伍更具生產力。同時,當我們一邊持續擴大銷售隊伍、一邊對抗那個比率時,就會對該百分比造成壓力——向下的壓力。

  • So -- but we're absolutely focused on productivity, a number of efforts. I mentioned a handful of them just now, and we do believe that will improve over time. But at the same time, we're going to continue to work on growing the sales force. We do believe that the drivers of our capability to grow the sales force are the need for financial guidance and solutions by middle-income families, which we believe is greater than ever and the attractiveness of our entrepreneurial business opportunity, which is more successful than ever. So we've got the two most important things that drive the size of our sales force are as dynamic as they've ever been, and that gives us some optimism that we can grow both the size of the sales force and productivity simultaneously.

    所以——但我們絕對聚焦在生產力上,並推動多項努力。我剛才提到其中幾項,我們也相信它會隨時間改善。但同時,我們也會持續致力於擴大銷售隊伍。我們確信,推動我們擴大銷售隊伍能力的驅動因素包括:中等收入家庭對財務指導與解決方案的需求,我們認為比以往任何時候都更大;以及我們的創業型商業機會的吸引力,比以往任何時候都更成功。因此,驅動我們銷售隊伍規模的兩個最重要因素,都跟以往一樣充滿動能,這讓我們對於能同時擴大銷售隊伍規模並提升生產力抱持一些樂觀。

  • Suneet Kamath - Analyst

    Suneet Kamath - Analyst

  • Got it. That makes sense. And then I just had an observation about the Term business that I wanted to sort of bounce off you and see if I'm thinking about it right. Historically, as I thought about this business, it felt to me like there's sort of a natural hedge that exists in periods of economic uncertainty, where the target market may be facing some pressure, maybe reluctant to buy product, but higher levels of unemployment also creates opportunities on the recruiting side.

    了解。這很合理。接著我對定期險業務有個觀察,想跟你們確認一下,看我理解得對不對。過去我看這項業務時,感覺在經濟不確定的時期,存在一種自然的對沖:目標市場可能承受一些壓力、也許不太願意買產品,但較高的失業率同時也會在招募端創造機會。

  • So like I said, kind of a natural hedge. It feels like the current environment is different where we are seeing the cost of living pressure, but I think the latest job numbers would suggest that unemployment is still pretty good. So is this just sort of a unique kind of different period of time that you're going to have to deal with here in Term? Or am I not thinking about that right?

    所以就像我說的,有點像自然對沖。感覺目前環境不同:我們看到生活成本壓力,但我想最新的就業數據顯示失業率仍然相當不錯。所以這是否只是你們在定期險這邊必須面對的一段獨特、不同的時期?還是我想法不太對?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I think a lot of what you've said, Suneet, is the way we perceive it. I think I would consider that almost every dynamic in our environment has both a positive and a negative, that we're trying to maximize the positive and minimize the negative. I do think we're experiencing unique uncertainty or have experienced it over the last few years.

    不,我認為你說的很多內容,Suneet,確實就是我們的看法。我會認為,我們環境中的幾乎每一個動態都有正面與負面,我們試圖把正面最大化、把負面最小化。我確實認為我們正在經歷獨特的不確定性,或在過去幾年一直如此。

  • To me, that's what's unique. It's a little hard to get a beat on the direction of things. And I think that tends to make most -- maybe people in every market, but certainly in the middle-income market stop and wait and see what's happening. I don't think that strong employment numbers necessarily directly compete with our recruiting because remember, people come to Primerica looking for an alternative to a job, not a paycheck on Friday, but to build a business over time that can supplement or replace their income. And so large numbers of poor-quality jobs probably help us. And I'm not saying that's exactly what's happening right now. But when that occurs, that probably helps recruiting because people become very frustrated with their employment.

    對我而言,獨特之處就在這裡:有點難以掌握事情的走向。我認為這往往會讓大多數人——也許每個市場的人都是如此,但在中等收入市場尤其如此——停下來觀望。我不認為強勁的就業數據必然會直接與我們的招募競爭,因為請記住,人們來到Primerica是為了尋找工作以外的選擇;不是為了週五領薪水,而是為了隨時間建立一門事業,能補充或取代他們的收入。因此,大量低品質的工作可能對我們有利。我不是說現在一定就是這種情況。但當那種情況發生時,可能會有利於招募,因為人們會對自己的工作感到非常挫折。

  • A better recruit is an employed recruit that's frustrated, not an unemployed recruit. But yet, there's an ebb and a flow of a positive and negative with almost every one of those economic dynamics. And what we try to do, again, is maximize the positive of the dynamic around us and minimize the negative. So I think you can look at it the way you described, but don't forget that there might be a counterbalancing positive to each negative and counterbalancing negative to each positive.

    更好的招募對象,是有工作但感到挫折的人,而不是失業的人。不過,幾乎每一個經濟動態都存在正負面的消長。我們要做的——再次強調——是把周遭動態的正面最大化、把負面最小化。所以你可以用你描述的方式來看,但別忘了:每個負面可能都有對應的正面來平衡,而每個正面也可能有對應的負面來平衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Bergman, TD Cowen.

    Dan Bergman,TD Cowen。

  • Daniel Bergman - Equity Analyst

    Daniel Bergman - Equity Analyst

  • If I got the number right, I think you said you're guiding to high-single-digit ISP sales growth in 2026, which is very strong nominally, but would imply a somewhat lower sales run rate in the remainder of the year relative to the first quarter. So I was just hoping you could kind of unpack that a little bit more and what that's assuming. Like have you actually seen any slowdown of sales into the second quarter so far? Or is guidance more based on just some conservatism given the potential for market volatility and obviously, you're at record levels currently.

    如果我沒聽錯數字,我想你說你們指引2026年ISP銷售成長為高個位數,名目上非常強勁,但這意味著今年剩餘期間的銷售運行速度(run rate)相對第一季會稍微低一些。所以我希望你能再多拆解一下,這個假設是什麼。比如說,你們是否已經看到第二季到目前為止銷售有任何放緩?還是指引更多是基於一些保守性,考量到市場波動的可能性,而且顯然你們目前處於創紀錄水準。

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think it's more of the second than the first. I mean we really haven't seen an emerging headwind in that momentum, but we are comparing to stronger and stronger comparisons as the year goes on. So a bit of that is the math of the comparison. And we also recognize that there is a potential risk of market volatility. We're experiencing market volatility, but it could become more negative. And so we just want to make sure that we take that into account in our projections. So it's the increasingly difficult comparisons over continue -- we're setting records over last year's records.

    是的。我認為比較偏向後者而不是前者。我的意思是,我們其實沒有看到動能出現新的逆風,但隨著年度推進,我們面對的比較基期會越來越強。所以其中一部分是比較的數學效應。我們也認知到市場波動存在潛在風險。我們正在經歷市場波動,但它可能變得更負面。因此我們只是想確保在預測中把這點納入考量。所以這是比較基期愈來愈困難的因素——我們是在去年的紀錄之上再創紀錄。

  • As the year goes on, we had a very strong year last year, and it got stronger as the year went by. And so those comparisons will get tougher as we go forward. And it's just recognizing that there is that risk of volatility that could interrupt momentum. We don't know how, but we try to take that into consideration in that guidance. So it's the combination of those things, I would say, Dan.

    隨著年度推進,去年是非常強的一年,而且越到後面越強,所以我們往後的比較會更艱難。這只是承認波動風險可能會打斷動能。我們不知道會如何發生,但我們會嘗試在指引中把它納入考量。所以我會說,Dan,這是這些因素的組合。

  • Daniel Bergman - Equity Analyst

    Daniel Bergman - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And then I guess a related question, but while ISP sales are really strong across all products this past quarter, the sequential improvement was really largely driven by retail mutual funds, which I was a little surprised by given the market volatility and pressure we saw during the quarter. So as such, I was just hoping you could give a little more insight into what you're seeing at your clients, their behavior and kind of how they're viewing current markets and the recent movements.

    了解。這很合理。接著我想問一個相關問題:雖然本季ISP銷售在所有產品上都很強,但環比改善主要是由零售共同基金(retail mutual funds)帶動,考量到本季我們看到的市場波動與壓力,這點讓我有點意外。因此我想請你多分享一些你們在客戶端看到的情況:他們的行為,以及他們如何看待目前市場與近期的波動。

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's interesting, Dan. We saw that as well, and we take that as a very healthy sign because we consider a retail mutual fund to be the most basic product we sell and the most appealing to the broadest market. I mentioned some of the trends that the industry has identified of younger investors being more prone to save maybe than the last generation or two earlier in their lives. And that is that mutual fund market, particularly within their Roth or traditional IRAs. And so we take that as a positive sign that there's a broader interest and acceptance of investing.

    很有意思,Dan。我們也看到了這點,我們把它視為非常健康的訊號,因為我們認為零售共同基金是我們銷售的最基本產品,也是對最廣泛市場最具吸引力的產品。我提到過一些產業趨勢:較年輕的投資人可能比前一、兩代更傾向於更早開始儲蓄。而那正是共同基金市場,特別是在他們的Roth或傳統IRA之中。因此我們把這視為正面訊號,代表投資有更廣泛的興趣與接受度。

  • We're still trying to validate all of that, but that's just our early reaction to it that -- when that happens, that means that generally preferred investment to a broad marketplace are being more highly accepted. That's a good sign. And then as time goes by, if they need those more sophisticated products due to changes, volatility in the market or changes in their own financial condition, we've got the answer to those as well. But we did see that. We took it as a positive sign for the future, and we'll continue to track it to see if we can validate that assumption.

    我們仍在嘗試驗證這些觀察,但我們的初步反應是——當這種情況發生時,代表一般大眾偏好的投資工具正被更高度地接受,這是好現象。接著,隨著時間推進,如果他們因市場變動、波動,或自身財務狀況改變而需要更複雜的產品,我們也同樣有相應的解決方案。但我們確實看到了這點。我們把它視為對未來的正面訊號,並會持續追蹤,以確認是否能驗證這個假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Joel Hurwitz, Dowling & Partners.

    (接線員指示)Joel Hurwitz,Dowling & Partners。

  • Joel Hurwitz - Analyst

    Joel Hurwitz - Analyst

  • Another one on ISP sales. Glenn, just any color on annuity sales, right? You guys continue to significantly outpace the industry, right, up over 30% year over year in annuity sales. I think if I look at the LIMRA data that just came out, total annuity sales are actually down a little bit. Just what do you think is driving your ability to grow faster than the industry there?

    再問一題關於 ISP 銷售。Glenn,想請教一下年金銷售方面有沒有任何補充說明?你們的年金銷售仍然明顯跑贏產業對吧?年金銷售年增超過 30%。我看剛出爐的 LIMRA 數據,整體年金銷售其實是小幅下滑。你認為是什麼驅動你們能夠比產業成長更快?

  • Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Glenn Williams - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Joel, I agree. We see the same dynamic that you've -- generally for the last few quarters, it's been the same direction as the industry. We've just been more accelerated. And we see that from the same combination we've talked about previously. We see our client base as they amass larger and larger assets based on the returns that have happened in the market over the last few years.

    Joel,我同意。我們看到的動態跟你看到的一樣——一般來說,過去幾個季度的方向都跟產業一致,只是我們的增速更快。我們也認為原因來自我們之前談過的同樣組合。我們看到客戶基礎在過去幾年市場報酬的帶動下,資產規模愈來愈大。

  • The closer they get to retirement, the more important it is to preserve those assets and have guarantees underneath them. So future market volatility doesn't take away their gains. And so I think we've got the kind of dynamic of our growing and maturing client base. I think we've got excellent partners in that business that continue to present great products that are appropriately priced and have great benefits.

    他們越接近退休,就越重視保全這些資產,並在其下方配置保證機制,這樣未來市場波動就不會把他們的既有收益抹去。所以我認為,我們的客戶基礎正在成長且逐步成熟,形成了這樣的動態。同時,我們在這項業務上也有很優秀的合作夥伴,持續提供很好的產品,定價合理且福利優異。

  • They're not unnecessarily aggressive, but they are, I would say, as good as any in the industry. And so it's a combination of a number of fundamentals, I think, where we've executed well on that opportunity, maybe a little better than the industry as a whole. I think there are other peers that have done as well as we have, but I do think we've outstripped the industry through just some strong blocking and tackling in that area.

    這些產品並非不必要地激進,但我會說,它們的競爭力不輸產業任何一家。因此我認為這是多項基本面因素的結合,我們在把握這個機會上執行得很好,可能比整體產業做得更好一些。我想也有其他同業表現跟我們一樣好,但我確實認為,透過在這個領域扎實的基本功與落地執行,我們的表現超越了產業。

  • Joel Hurwitz - Analyst

    Joel Hurwitz - Analyst

  • Got it. And then, Tracy, on the quarter's remeasurement gains, how much of that was from mortality versus lapses? And then on lapses, any color just how that's comparing to recent periods?

    了解。接著 Tracy,關於本季的重新衡量(remeasurement)收益,其中有多少來自死亡率、多少來自解約?另外在解約方面,能否分享一下與近期期間相比的情況?

  • Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Joel, on the remeasurement gain, as I mentioned, that it is a combination of both mortality and persistency. In terms of a comparison on the remeasurement gain over the prior quarter of 2025, the bigger part of the contribution on the year-over-year size of remeasurement gain, actually, mortality drove a bigger improvement on the remeasurement gain quarter over quarter compared to prior year than persistency in terms of dollar amounts and the size of contribution. And mortality is one that we've mentioned since 2022 second half, we've seen very good performance. And we made some remeasurement assumption change in third quarter of 2025. But that being said, we only recognized a portion of those improvements, and we continue to experience the claims improvement.

    Joel,關於重新衡量收益,如我提到的,它是死亡率與保單持續率(persistency)的綜合結果。若與 2025 年前一季相比,就重新衡量收益年對年規模變化的貢獻而言,實際上以死亡率對重新衡量收益的改善貢獻更大;以金額與貢獻幅度來看,死亡率在季對季相較前一年所帶來的改善大於持續率。死亡率方面我們自 2022 年下半年以來就提過,表現一直很好。我們也在 2025 年第三季做了一些重新衡量假設的調整。不過即便如此,我們只認列了部分改善,而理賠改善的趨勢仍在持續。

  • First quarter was typically in the industry, as we all know, with the flu season and probably higher prong COVID, first quarter would have been a little bit heavier claims period from the instance, and all of that perspective. But we saw pretty good experience variance on the mortality side, and we're happy to see that. On the lapse side, I would say that for the lapse performance, and we mentioned that during the COVID, we had extraordinarily high persistency. And then we followed with the drop of persistency with higher lapses because we do know that some of the policies brought on during the pandemic period may not be the most committed buyers.

    第一季通常在產業內——大家都知道——因為流感季,以及可能較高的 COVID(風險/影響),第一季往往會是相對較重的理賠期間,從發生率等角度來看都是如此。但我們在死亡率端看到相當不錯的經驗差異(experience variance),我們也很高興看到這點。至於解約端,我會說在 COVID 期間,我們的持續率異常地高。之後持續率下滑、解約上升,因為我們知道疫情期間投保的一些保單,可能不是最具承諾度的買家。

  • And in terms of looking at the trend, I would say that the earlier durations are more stable, the ones that we continue to see compared to our long-term expectation that is more pronouncedly further in terms of distance is actually the COVID cohorts continue to have some runoff. And I've mentioned in the recent past that we're still observing that pattern and observing when that runoff would be. So from a remeasurement perspective, we continue to observe the pattern and see what the underlying trend might be before we make any conclusions of the long-term trend being sustained.

    就趨勢來看,我會說較早期的保單年度(durations)相對穩定;而相較我們長期預期、偏離更明顯且距離更遠的部分,主要是 COVID 批次(cohorts)仍在持續出清(runoff)。我最近也提過,我們仍在觀察這個型態,以及這個出清會在何時發生。因此從重新衡量的角度,我們會持續觀察這個型態,並在下結論之前先看清楚底層趨勢可能是什麼,避免過早認定長期趨勢已被確認並可持續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

    Jack Matten,BMO Capital Markets。

  • Jack Matten - Analyst

    Jack Matten - Analyst

  • Just one on the RBC ratio. Is there anything notable driving the sequential movement this quarter? Was that just subsidiary dividends? Just curious, looking at the first quarter of last year, the RBC ratio took a step up. So just wondering what was going on this quarter?

    問一題關於 RBC 比率。本季序列變動(sequential movement)有沒有什麼值得注意的驅動因素?只是子公司股利嗎?我只是好奇,因為看去年第一季 RBC 比率有往上跳一步,所以想了解本季是怎麼回事?

  • Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, good morning, Jack. On the RBC ratio, I think we typically try to have a little conservatism on RBC to be [400%] or above, and that's where we like to see. But we, at the same time, don't like to run up too high. When it gets to closer to [500%], we typically will take some actions to manage it.

    嗨,早安,Jack。關於 RBC 比率,我們通常會保守一些,目標是維持在 [400%] 或以上,這是我們希望看到的水準。但同時我們也不希望跑得太高。當它接近 [500%] 時,我們通常會採取一些行動來管理。

  • One of the reasons that we like RBC to be conservative but not overly high is for just capital use and efficiency on how we deploy the capital. From a management standpoint, I would say that we have the ability -- to the degree we can, provide strong liquidity for our growth on the Term Life. As Glenn has mentioned that there's obviously an ebb and flow in the business, but we do believe that convention as being our largest event and the excitement towards our 50-year anniversary is going to drive some changing trend as we get closer to the next year of 50-year anniversary.

    我們希望 RBC 保守但不過高,其中一個原因是資本使用與資本配置效率。從管理角度來看,我會說我們有能力——在可行範圍內——為定期壽險(Term Life)的成長提供充足流動性。正如 Glenn 提到的,這項業務顯然有起伏循環,但我們相信年會(convention)作為我們最大的活動,以及對 50 週年慶的期待,將在我們接近明年 50 週年時帶動一些趨勢變化。

  • So we are managing the RBC to be to our more ideal ratios as much as we can, at the same time, keeping enough strong capital at the holdco to support the growth of the Term Life business. But also the security, as I mentioned that in the recent past, we've doubled that business in the recent two, three years, if you think about it. And we have tried very hard to keep pace with the growth of that business while building infrastructure, improving our ability in terms of even serving the clients better with how fast the business grows. So the capital strength is very, very important to support the strong growth of securities over current period and the long haul but also have enough liquidity to sustain any sort of market downturn. And that is our philosophy, and that's what we're executing towards.

    因此我們會盡可能把 RBC 管理在更理想的比率區間,同時在控股公司(holdco)保留足夠且強健的資本,以支持定期壽險業務的成長。同時也要兼顧證券業務的安全性;如我先前提到的,若你回頭看,過去兩三年我們的證券業務規模已經翻倍。我們非常努力在建置基礎設施的同時,跟上業務成長的速度,並提升我們在業務快速成長下服務客戶的能力。因此,資本實力對於支撐當期及長期證券業務的強勁成長非常、非常重要,同時也要有足夠流動性以承受任何市場下行。這就是我們的理念,也是我們正在執行的方向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Krueger, KBW.

    Ryan Krueger,KBW。

  • Ryan Krueger - Analyst

    Ryan Krueger - Analyst

  • Just a quick one. In the ISP business, your net revenue fee rate has been gradually ticking up the last couple of years. What's been driving that? Is that -- I don't know if it's the shift to managed accounts some or if there's something else going on. But can you give any color on why that's happening? And would you expect it to continue?

    很快一題。在 ISP 業務中,你們的淨營收費率(net revenue fee rate)過去幾年逐步上升。是什麼在驅動?是因為部分轉向全權委託/管理型帳戶(managed accounts)的組合變化,還是有其他因素?能否說明一下為什麼會這樣?你們預期會持續嗎?

  • Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Tracy Tan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Good morning, Ryan. The ISP business growth on the net revenue, I think some of that definitely has to do with the mix of the products. As Glen -- as we have mentioned and Glenn had mentioned earlier, we certainly see strong growth from mutual funds. But if you look at the percentages where the strongest growth has been in the last two, three years, the number one and number two is percentages-wise, depending on what period is between managed account and variable annuity. Now the managed account growth has been a sustained strength and we introduced those managed account, more sophisticated advisory services not that long ago. It's probably no more than a couple of decades, if you think about it, and we really, really stepped up on improving our platforms a few years ago, and we added 57 or 56, close to 60 new products on that platform. And we also introduced on variable annuity RILA product, which is more than 60% of our offering.

    早安,Ryan。ISP 業務在淨營收上的成長,我認為其中一部分確實與產品組合有關。正如 Glen——正如我們提到過、以及 Glenn 先前也提到的——我們確實看到共同基金(mutual funds)強勁成長。但如果你看過去兩三年成長最強的類別(以百分比來看),第一名與第二名會在不同期間於管理型帳戶(managed account)與變額年金(variable annuity)之間互換。管理型帳戶的成長一直是持續性的強項;我們推出這些更精緻的顧問服務型管理型帳戶其實也不算太久——如果你回想,大概也就不超過幾十年——而且我們在幾年前大幅強化平台,並在該平台新增了 57 或 56、接近 60 個新產品。我們也推出了變額年金的 RILA 產品,而它占我們產品供給的 60% 以上。

  • So that product, RILA, as an example, Glenn mentioned about the retirement needs to have some guarantee, but that product also allows the clients to take advantage of the equity market strong performance while having a bottom line guarantee security from that perspective. So that has captured a lot of interest for our clients to want to retire, but meanwhile, not lose out on the strong equity market potential that they can make a higher yield on. Those attracted certainly a lot of client demand and those products certainly are driving the revenue growth. And then the PD model from Canada, that has been a tremendous growth of our product and its growth can compete with the other two in recent years. And all these three products are great mix that is driving the positive revenue side of the growth and the makeup and the contribution that you are seeing.

    以 RILA 這個產品為例,Glenn 提到退休需求需要一些保證,而這個產品也讓客戶在享有底線保證保障的同時,仍能參與股市強勁表現所帶來的上行潛力。從這個角度看,它吸引了許多客戶的興趣:他們想退休,但同時也不想錯失強勁股市所帶來、可能取得更高收益率的機會。這些因素確實帶動了大量客戶需求,而這些產品也確實在推動營收成長。此外,來自加拿大的 PD 模式也帶來了我們產品的巨大成長,近年來其成長力道可與另外兩項相提並論。這三類產品的良好組合,正在推動你所看到的營收面正向成長、結構變化與貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that is all our questions for today. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

    以上就是我們今天的所有提問。各位女士、先生,感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話,祝您有美好的一天。