Primerica Inc (PRI) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Primerica's second quarter 2025 earnings webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎收聽 Primerica 2025 年第二季財報網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Nicole Russell, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我將會議交給主持人、投資者關係主管妮可·拉塞爾 (Nicole Russell)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Primerica's second quarter earnings call. A copy of our earnings press release issued last night, along with other materials related to today's call are posted on the investor relations section of our website. Joining our call today are Chief Executive Officer, Glenn Williams; and our Chief Financial Officer, Tracy Tan.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加 Primerica 第二季財報電話會議。我們昨晚發布的收益新聞稿副本以及與今天電話會議相關的其他資料均發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。今天參加我們電話會議的有執行長 Glenn Williams 和財務長 Tracy Tan。

Our comments this morning will contain forward-looking statements in accordance with the safe harbor provision of the Securities Litigation Reform Act. We assume no obligation to update these statements to reflect new information and refer you to our most recent Form 10-K filing as may be modified by subsequent Form 10-Q for a list of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those that are expressed or implied.

我們今天早上的評論將根據《證券訴訟改革法》的安全港條款包含前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔更新這些聲明以反映新資訊的義務，並請您參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格文件，因為後續的 10-Q 表格可能會對其進行修改，以獲取可能導致實際結果與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性清單。

We also reference certain non-GAAP measures, which we believe provide additional insight into the company's financial results. Reconciliation of non-GAAP results to the respective GAAP numbers are included in our earnings press release.

我們也參考了某些非公認會計準則指標，我們認為這些指標可以為了解公司的財務表現提供更多見解。非 GAAP 結果與相應 GAAP 數據的對帳包含在我們的收益新聞稿中。

I would now like to turn the call over to Glenn.

現在我想把電話轉給格倫。

Thank you, Nicole, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. Primerica delivered another strong quarter with results that reflect the consistent performance of our business. Despite continued economic and government uncertainty, our investment clients remain committed to their long-term savings goals, our life insurance clients recognize the importance of protecting their income and our business opportunity is attracting a significant number of recruits.

謝謝你，妮可，也謝謝大家加入我們。Primerica 又一個季度表現強勁，業績反映了我們業務的持續表現。儘管經濟和政府的不確定性持續存在，我們的投資客戶仍然致力於他們的長期儲蓄目標，我們的人壽保險客戶認識到保護其收入的重要性，我們的商業機會正在吸引大量新員工。

Our sales force plays a critical role in delivering protection and investment solutions to middle-income families when they need it most. As we sometimes see, our two main product lines respond differently to changes in the business environment, creating a good balance in our business model and financial results. Starting with our financial results adjusted net operating income was $180 million during the second quarter of 2025, up 6% year-over-year while diluted adjusted operating EPS increased 10% to $5.46.

我們的銷售團隊在向中等收入家庭最需要的時候提供保護和投資解決方案方面發揮關鍵作用。正如我們有時看到的，我們的兩條主要產品線對商業環境的變化做出了不同的反應，從而在我們的商業模式和財務表現中創造了良好的平衡。從我們的財務表現開始，2025 年第二季調整後的淨營業收入為 1.8 億美元，年增 6%，而稀釋調整後的營業每股收益成長 10% 至 5.46 美元。

These results reflect the continued strength within our investment savings products business and a steady contribution from our term life business. We continue to generate solid earnings growth and maintain our commitment to returning in capital to stockholders. During the quarter, we returned a total of $163 million to stockholders through a combination of $129 million in share repurchases and $34 million in regular dividends.

這些結果反映了我們的投資儲蓄產品業務的持續強勁以及定期壽險業務的穩定貢獻。我們繼續實現穩健的獲利成長，並堅持向股東返還資本的承諾。本季度，我們透過 1.29 億美元的股票回購和 3,400 萬美元的定期股息向股東返還了總計 1.63 億美元。

Looking at distribution, we recruited over 80,000 individuals during the second quarter and licensed nearly 13,000 new representatives, down 10% from the second quarter record set last year. This level of activity continues to fuel growth in our sales force. We ended the quarter with 152,592 life license representatives, up 5% compared to June 2024. Recruiting in the third quarter also started strong.

從分佈來看，我們在第二季度招募了超過 80,000 名個人，並授權了近 13,000 名新代表，比去年第二季度創下的紀錄下降了 10%。這種程度的活動持續推動著我們銷售隊伍的成長。本季結束時，我們擁有 152,592 名終身執照代表，與 2024 年 6 月相比成長了 5%。第三季的招募也開始強勁。

Using a recruiting incentive, which has been affected in the past we added over 50,000 new recruits in the month of July. We remain committed to growing our sales force and expect to grow between 2% and 3% in the full year of 2025. Turning to our sales results. We issued 89,850 new term life insurance policies during the second quarter and put in place over $30 billion in new term life protection for our clients bringing our total face amount in force to a record $968 billion.

透過過去曾受到影響的招募激勵措施，我們在 7 月新增了 5 萬多名新員工。我們將繼續致力於擴大銷售隊伍，預計 2025 年全年銷售成長率將達到 2% 至 3%。談談我們的銷售業績。我們在第二季度簽發了 89,850 份新的定期人壽保險單，並為我們的客戶提供了超過 300 億美元的新定期人壽保險保障，使我們的有效總面值達到創紀錄的 9,680 億美元。

On a year-over-year basis, the number of new life insurance policies and face amount issued declined 11% and 9%, respectively. We believe the decline reflects a combination of continued cost of living pressures and ongoing uncertainty compounded by comparison to exceptionally strong results in the prior year period. Productivity at policies per life insurance license representative per month was within our historical range of $0.20 to $0.24 million

與去年同期相比，新簽人壽保險單數量和保額分別下降了11%和9%。我們認為，與去年同期異常強勁的業績相比，這一下降反映了持續的生活成本壓力和持續的不確定性。每位壽險執照代表每月的保單生產力處於我們歷史範圍內，即 0.20 至 0.24 百萬美元。

Considering these stronger-than-expected headwinds, we're now projecting the total number of new life policies issued to decline around 5% in 2025 compared to full year 2024. Turning next to the ISP segment. Results were once again stronger than anticipated with total sales during the quarter of 15% to $3.5 billion. We continue to see strong demand for variable annuities and managed accounts, while US and Canadian mutual funds grew at a more modest pace.

考慮到這些比預期更強勁的逆風，我們現在預測，2025 年簽發的新人壽保險保單總數將比 2024 年全年下降約 5%。接下來前往 ISP 部分。業績再次超出預期，本季總銷售額成長 15%，達到 35 億美元。我們繼續看到對變額年金和管理帳戶的強勁需求，而美國和加拿大的共同基金成長速度較為溫和。

Net inflows for the quarter were $487 million versus $227 million in the prior year period and client asset values ended the quarter at $120 billion, up 14% year-over-year. We see more clients focusing on saving for retirement, driving higher transaction volume and increased average sales size. This trend has the potential to continue based on the large number of individuals in the baby boomer and GenX populations who are approaching retirement age.

本季淨流入為 4.87 億美元，去年同期為 2.27 億美元，客戶資產價值在本季末達到 1,200 億美元，較去年同期成長 14%。我們看到越來越多的客戶專注於退休儲蓄，從而推動更高的交易量和更大的平均銷售規模。由於嬰兒潮世代和X世代人口中有大量人口即將達到退休年齡，這一趨勢有可能持續下去。

Given our momentum in the first half of 2025 and strong sales in July, we expect full year ISP sales growth to be more than 10%. During the quarter, we discovered a need to correct our methodology for calculating outflows and market value for Canadian mutual fund assets included in our consolidated client asset roll-forward statistical data.

鑑於我們在 2025 年上半年的發展勢頭和 7 月份的強勁銷售，我們預計全年 ISP 銷售額增長將超過 10%。在本季度，我們發現需要修正計算合併客戶資產滾動統計數據中包含的加拿大共同基金資產的流出量和市場價值的方法。

We updated the roll-forward table in our financial supplement to provide investors with restated historical statistics. This direction had no impact on our financial statements ISP product sales nor the average or ending client asset values during the relevant periods. Net flows were impacted, but remained positive. Our mortgage business showed solid year-over-year growth in both the US and Canada during the second quarter of 2025.

我們更新了財務補充報告中的滾動表，以便為投資者提供重述的歷史統計數據。此指示對我們的財務報表 ISP 產品銷售額以及相關期間的平均或期末客戶資產價值沒有影響。淨流量受到影響，但仍保持正值。2025 年第二季度，我們的抵押貸款業務在美國和加拿大均實現了穩健的同比增長。

In the US, we had $133 million of closed loan volume, up 33% year-over-year. We are licensed to do business in 35 states through a total of nearly 3,400 licensed mortgage loan originators. Our referral program in Canada had $45 million of closed loan volume up 30% from a year ago. While mortgages currently represent a relatively small portion of our business, they provide our clients with a valuable financial tool while also creating a diversified income stream for our mortgage-licensed sales force.

在美國，我們的貸款結清額為 1.33 億美元，年增 33%。我們擁有在 35 個州開展業務的許可，總共擁有近 3,400 名持牌抵押貸款發起人。我們在加拿大的推薦計畫已結清貸款金額為 4,500 萬美元，比一年前成長了 30%。雖然房貸目前只占我們業務的一小部分，但它們為我們的客戶提供了寶貴的金融工具，同時也為我們的抵押貸款持牌銷售團隊創造了多樣化的收入來源。

The unique characteristics of each of our product lines can cause them to respond differently to changing business conditions. This quarter highlighted their complementary nature with ISP -- with record ISP sales helping to offset the headwinds in life sales. Despite the pressure on new life sales, the size and stability of our Life business continues to provide consistent earnings even in an uncertain environment. We remain well positioned to deliver long-term value for our clients, our field and our stockholders.

我們每條產品線的獨特特性會導致它們對不斷變化的業務條件做出不同的反應。本季凸顯了它們與 ISP 的互補性——創紀錄的 ISP 銷售額有助於抵消人壽銷售方面的阻力。儘管新壽險銷售面臨壓力，但我們壽險業務的規模和穩定性即使在不確定的環境中也能繼續提供穩定的效益。我們始終致力於為我們的客戶、我們的領域和我們的股東創造長期價值。

With that, I'll hand it over to Tracy for the financial results.

說完這些，我將把財務結果交給 Tracy。

Thank you, Glenn, and good morning, everyone. The company's financial performance across all segments was very strong. Starting with term life second quarter revenues of $442 million rose 3% year-over-year, driven by 5% growth in adjusted direct premiums. The segment delivered a solid performance with pretax income of $155 million, up 5% compared to the prior year period.

謝謝你，格倫，大家早安。該公司各部門的財務表現都非常強勁。從定期壽險開始，第二季營收 4.42 億美元，年增 3%，這得益於調整後的直接保費成長 5%。該部門業績表現穩健，稅前收入達 1.55 億美元，較去年同期成長 5%。

Our key financial ratios remain consistent with expectations and largely in line with the prior period. These included the benefits and claims ratio at 57.5%. The DAC amortization and insurance commissions ratio at 12%, the insurance expense ratio at 7.6% and the operating margin at 23%. Overall, lapse rates for the quarter remained elevated and were stable compared to the prior year period in aggregate.

我們的關鍵財務比率與預期保持一致，並且與上期基本一致。其中福利和索賠比率為 57.5%。DAC攤提和保險佣金比率為12%，保險費用比率為7.6%，營業利益率為23%。整體而言，本季的失效率仍然較高，與去年同期相比整體保持穩定。

We continue to believe higher lapse rates are primarily driven by cost-of-living pressures and their impact on middle-income families. We believe that our clients are resilient over the long term and value our services and products. Based on historical trends, we expect persistency to normalize as clients adapt to the evolving economic environment.

我們仍然認為，較高的失效率主要是由生活成本壓力及其對中等收入家庭的影響所造成的。我們相信我們的客戶具有長期的韌性，並重視我們的服務和產品。根據歷史趨勢，我們預期隨著客戶適應不斷變化的經濟環境，持續性將正常化。

Therefore, we do not expect any significant changes to our LDTI lapse assumptions. We started to experience favorable mortality in the second half of 2022 and continued to see favorable mortality trends relative to our expectations. Given the stable nature of our Term Life business, our full year guidance remains unchanged.

因此，我們預期 LDTI 失效假設不會發生任何重大變化。我們在 2022 年下半年開始經歷有利的死亡率，並且繼續看到相對於我們預期有利的死亡率趨勢。鑑於我們的定期壽險業務的穩定性，我們的全年指導保持不變。

To reiterate, we expect ADP to grow around 5% with a benefits and claims ratio at around 58%. The DAC amortization and insurance commissions ratio at around 12% and the operating margin at around 22%. As a reminder, we will conduct our annual assumption setting review in the third quarter, which may impact our future guidance for key ratios.

重申一下，我們預計 ADP 將成長 5% 左右，福利和索賠比率將達到 58% 左右。DAC攤銷和保險佣金比率約12%，營業利潤率約22%。提醒一下，我們將在第三季進行年度假設設定審查，這可能會影響我們未來對關鍵比率的指導。

Continued sales momentum and growth in our client asset values drove record revenues in our investment and savings product segment. Second quarter operating revenues of $298 million increased 14% from the prior year period while pretax income rose 6% to $79 million. Sales-based revenues increased 15%, slightly outpacing the 11% increase in relevant sales, primarily driven by strong demand for variable annuities.

持續的銷售動能和客戶資產價值的成長推動了我們的投資和儲蓄產品部門創下創紀錄的收入。第二季營業收入為 2.98 億美元，較上年同期成長 14%，稅前利潤成長 6%，至 7,900 萬美元。基於銷售額的營收成長 15%，略高於相關銷售額 11% 的增幅，主要受對變額年金的強勁需求推動。

Asset-based revenues increased 17% year-over-year compared to an 11% increase in average client asset values as we continued to benefit from strong client demand for products on which we earn higher asset-based commission namely US managed accounts and Canadian mutual funds sold under the principal distributor model.

資產型收入年增 17%，而平均客戶資產價值僅成長 11%，因為我們持續受益於客戶對產品的強勁需求，這些產品（即在主要經銷商模式下銷售的美國管理帳戶和加拿大共同基金）可為我們賺取更高的資產型佣金。

Sales commissions for both sales and asset-based products increased relatively in line with revenues. The corporate and other distributed products segment recorded pre-tax adjusted operating income of $3 million during the quarter compared to $1 million in the prior year period. The year-over-year change was driven by an increase in net investment income, primarily due to the growth in the size of the portfolio.

銷售和資產型產品的銷售佣金均與收入相對增加。企業及其他分銷產品部門本季的稅前調整後營業收入為 300 萬美元，而去年同期為 100 萬美元。同比變化是由於淨投資收益的增加，這主要歸因於投資組合規模的成長。

Finally, consolidated insurance and other operating expenses were $154 million, up 8% year-over-year. The growth in expenses was primarily driven by higher variable growth-related costs in our ISP and term life segment and higher technology and infrastructure investments to support our sales force and business growth.

最後，合併保險和其他營運費用為 1.54 億美元，年增 8%。費用的成長主要是由於我們的 ISP 和定期壽險部門中與可變成長相關的成本增加，以及為支持我們的銷售團隊和業務成長而增加的技術和基礎設施投資。

We reiterate our full year outlook for expenses to increase in 2025 by around $40 million or 6% to 8%. Our invested asset portfolio remains well diversified with a duration of 5.3 years and an average quality of A. The average rate on new investment purchases in our life companies was 5.65% for the quarter with an average rating of A.

我們重申全年支出預測，即 2025 年將增加約 4,000 萬美元，即 6% 至 8%。我們的投資資產組合保持良好的多元化，期限為 5.3 年，平均品質為 A。本季度，我們人壽保險公司新投資購買的平均利率為 5.65%，平均評級為 A。

The net unrealized loss in our portfolio continues to improve ending the June quarter with a net unrealized loss of $158 million. We believe that the remaining unrealized loss is a function of interest rates and not due to underlying credit concerns, and we have the intent and ability to hold these investments on to maturity. We continue to generate significant deployable capital, underscoring the strength and reliability of our capital-light distribution model.

截至 6 月季度，我們投資組合的淨未實現損失持續改善，淨未實現損失為 1.58 億美元。我們認為，剩餘的未實現損失是利率的函數，而不是由於潛在的信用問題，我們有意圖和能力持有這些投資直至到期。我們持續產生大量可部署資本，凸顯了我們輕資本分銷模式的優勢和可靠性。

The steady cash flow from our term life business is driven by the sizable in-force block of insurance policies and our use of reinsurance, which limits our exposure to mortality risk. The fee-based nature of our ISP business supports strong cash flow generation and the high rate of earnings conversion. This model allows us to consistently return value to stockholders while also investing in long-term growth opportunities.

我們的定期壽險業務的穩定現金流是由大量有效保單和再保險的使用所驅動的，這限制了我們面臨的死亡風險。我們的 ISP 業務的收費性質支持強勁的現金流量產生和高收益轉換率。這種模式使我們能夠持續向股東回報價值，同時投資於長期成長機會。

Our holding company ended the quarter with $371 million in cash and invested assets. Primerica Life's estimated RBC ratio was 490%. We remain confident in our ability to maintain a strong capital position while supporting ongoing growth initiatives and continuing to return capital to stockholders. In both good and bad economic times, Primerica has been able to deliver strong earnings, solid cash conversion and superior return on equity.

我們的控股公司在本季結束時擁有 3.71 億美元的現金和投資資產。Primerica Life 的估計 RBC 比率為 490%。我們仍然有信心，我們有能力保持強大的資本地位，同時支持持續的成長計劃並繼續向股東返還資本。無論經濟情勢好壞，Primerica 都能實現強勁的獲利、穩定的現金轉換和卓越的股本回報率。

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指示）約翰·巴尼奇、派珀·桑德勒。

Can you talk about the decline in term license sales and the revised guidance? I know it's a point of sale than a monthly contributor like ISP. There's been concerns about cost of living as you've noted in your prepared remarks. Did that accelerate post liberation day?

您能談談定期許可證銷售額的下降和修訂後的指導嗎？我知道它是一個銷售點，而不是像 ISP 那樣的每月貢獻者。正如您在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，人們對生活成本有擔憂。這是否加速了解放後的進程？

Well, I think it's a combination, as we said, John, of cost of living and then just some uncertainty, which has led, I think, for most middle-income families living on a month-to-month type of budget and a lot of wait-and-see attitude. Let's see how prices turn out moving from here. Let's see what happens to interest rates, let's see what happens to other issues that may not be clear yet.

嗯，正如我們所說的，約翰，我認為這是生活成本和一些不確定性的綜合作用，我認為，這導致大多數中等收入家庭依靠按月預算生活，並採取觀望態度。讓我們看看價格今後將如何變動。讓我們看看利率會發生什麼變化，讓我們看看其他可能還不清楚的問題會發生什麼變化。

And of course, very difficult to get a beat on that based on what media might be feeding the middle class on either side of any one of those issues. So we've seen cost of living pressures for a number of years. I think we outstripped them last year and we're able just to overcome them and show positive growth. But adding that wait-and-see element is what we see for those middle-income families that really have a very tight budget.

當然，根據媒體對中產階級在這些議題上的態度，很難找到答案。因此，我們已經看到生活成本壓力持續多年。我認為我們去年已經超越了他們，並且我們能夠克服他們並表現出積極的成長。但我們看到，對於那些預算非常緊張的中等收入家庭來說，他們仍處於觀望狀態。

And that, of course, impacts our Term Life sales as well as our monthly investments in the ISP side of our business. The larger ticket investments as we've discussed in the past, that move -- are not really related to a monthly budget. They're transfers of retirement accounts, they're estates that move from one generation to another.

當然，這會影響我們的定期壽險銷售以及我們在 ISP 業務的每月投資。正如我們過去討論過的，較大的票務投資實際上與每月預算無關。它們是退休帳戶的轉移，是從一代傳到另一代的財產。

Those types of things are not impacted as much, at least by monthly cost of living. So we see it first in our term life business and we do believe that as Tracy pointed out this is a temporary issue. We do believe that middle-income families adapt to this over time, and the uncertainty becomes certainly may be different from last year's challenges, but at least it becomes certain and then they begin to adapt and move forward.

這些事情不會受到太大的影響，至少不會受到每月生活成本的影響。因此，我們首先在定期壽險業務中看到這個問題，我們確實相信，正如 Tracy 指出的那樣，這是一個暫時的問題。我們確實相信，中等收入家庭隨著時間的推移會適應這種情況，不確定性肯定會與去年的挑戰不同，但至少它會變得確定，然後他們就會開始適應並繼續前進。

So I think we're in a wait-and-see period right now that we've experienced and that we see that first in term life sales.

所以我認為我們現在正處於一個觀望期，我們首先在定期壽險銷售中看到了這一點。

My follow-up question, you talked about a lot of wait-and-see mode on how the cost-of-living pressures will be at the pushback. When you're talking about adding over 50,000 recruits in July, are these pushbacks actually an opportunity to recruit new agents?

我的後續問題是，您談到了很多關於生活成本壓力在反擊中會如何表現的觀望模式。當您談到 7 月新增 50,000 多名特工時，這些阻力實際上是招募新特工的機會嗎？

I'm sorry, I didn't hear you. Is what an opportunity to recruit new agents?

對不起，我沒聽見你說話。這是一個招募新代理商的機會嗎？

The cost-of-living pushbacks, I mean you -- there's a pushback like, hey costs are going up. I don't know if I can commit to this. Well, okay, we'll consider being agent, maybe you can get some part-time work.

生活成本的阻力，我的意思是──有一種阻力，例如，成本正在上漲。我不知道我是否能做到這一點。好吧，我們可以考慮當經紀人，也許你可以找一些兼職工作。

Absolutely. There are generally both a push and a pull for most economic dynamics on a lot of what we do. But the positive side of financial stress and recruiting is people looking for additional income. And so the attraction of our part-time opportunity absolutely plays into that. As we've said in the past, ramp up unemployment does not help us because that creates the need for someone to get a paycheck on Friday, not build the business over a long period of time.

絕對地。我們所做的很多事情通常都會對大多數經濟動力產生推動和拉動的作用。但財務壓力和招募的積極一面是人們尋求額外收入。因此，我們的兼職機會的吸引力絕對在於此。正如我們過去所說的那樣，失業率上升對我們沒有幫助，因為這會導致有人需要在周五領取薪水，而不是在很長一段時間內建立企業。

So when things get extreme, it may work a little differently. But yes, while cost of living pressures and to a certain extent, employment uncertainty are reasonable, they actually give us a little bit of a tailwind for recruiting while they might provide a headwind for that month's life insurance sales. So yes, absolutely, you defined that correctly.

因此，當情況變得極端時，它的作用可能會有所不同。但是，是的，雖然生活成本壓力和某種程度上的就業不確定性是合理的，但它們實際上為我們的招聘帶來了一點順風，同時也可能給當月的人壽保險銷售帶來阻力。是的，絕對正確，您的定義是正確的。

Joel Hurwitz, Dowling & Partners.

喬爾‧赫爾維茨，道林及合夥人。

Tracy, you had mentioned in your prepared remarks that mortality continues to be favorable in the quarter. Can you just unpack the level of favorability versus expectation? And then in terms of the Q3 assumption review, I know you mentioned no change to the lapse rate, but any potential for changes to the mortality assumption as part of the review?

特蕾西，您在準備好的發言中提到，本季的死亡率仍然保持良好。您能否解釋一下好感度與期望值之間的差異？然後就第三季假設審查而言，我知道您提到了遞減率沒有變化，但作為審查的一部分，死亡率假設有可能發生變化嗎？

Yes, Joe. So mortality has been a trend we've been observing very closely. And in the second half of 2022, we started to experience favorable mortality. And for over more than 10 quarters at this point we had initially been waiting to see if this was just a pull-forward impact from COVID, which means that there could be a earlier accelerated DAC rate and then somehow it's going to stabilize over what the trend could turn out to be.

是的，喬。死亡率一直是我們密切關注的趨勢。2022 年下半年，我們的死亡率開始下降。到目前為止，我們已經等待了超過 10 個季度，看看這是否只是 COVID 帶來的提前影響，這意味著 DAC 利率可能會提前加速，然後以某種方式穩定下來，看看最終的趨勢如何。

But so far, we continue to see that the mortality has been favorable, especially last four quarters and 12 months, and we've seen that trend stabilizing downward. At this point, I think there is a potential likelihood that this is a trend to stay. And clearly, in terms of magnitude we're quite a few percentages lower than our long-term pre-pandemic baseline actuarial assumptions.

但到目前為止，我們繼續看到死亡率保持良好，特別是過去四個季度和 12 個月，我們已經看到這種趨勢穩定下降。從目前來看，我認為這種趨勢很有可能持續下去。顯然，就幅度而言，我們比疫情前的長期基線精算假設低了相當多的百分比。

So in the third quarter, the annual reviews, we will certainly take a very close look and make a decision if we change our long-term assumption to recognize this trend.

因此，在第三季的年度審查中，我們肯定會非常仔細地觀察並做出決定，是否改變我們的長期假設以認識到這一趨勢。

Got it. That's very helpful, Tracy. And then moving to ISP, really good sales in the quarter. I guess just a question. When I look at the sales base margin it was 123 basis points in the quarter. That's a bit below where you've been running the past several quarters. Any color on the driver there?

知道了。這非常有幫助，特蕾西。然後轉向 ISP，本季的銷售情況非常好。我想這只是一個問題。當我查看銷售基數利潤時，發現本季的利潤率為 123 個基點。這比過去幾季的業績略低一些。司機身上有顏色嗎？

In terms of ISP margins, I think the part of the expenses is the impact because of the variable growth-related expenses that we have. And we also have commissions that is slightly higher than what you've seen in terms of dollars. We do try to true up as much as we can by midyear point where we see that the total year trend is running favorable.

就 ISP 利潤率而言，我認為部分費用是由於我們存在的與成長相關的可變費用而產生的影響。而且我們的佣金也比你們看到的以美元計算的佣金略高一些。我們確實會盡力在年中時盡可能地調整，因為那時我們會看到全年的趨勢是有利的。

So we do a true-up in the middle of the year, which may make the second quarter slightly higher than the first quarter, but it's in terms of the magnitude based on the running rate of our growth and what the commission is headed. And the other part to consider also is as we see the growth trend of ISP last year was growing more than 20%, 25%.

因此，我們在年中進行了一次調整，這可能會使第二季度的業績略高於第一季度，但這是基於我們的成長速度和佣金走向的幅度。另一個要考慮的因素是，我們看到去年 ISP 的成長趨勢是成長超過 20% 到 25%。

And this year, we're continuing on a pretty strong double-digit top line growth and our infrastructure has been a little bit stressed in terms of catching up with the volume. So we continue to invest in technology and infrastructure to support our ISP sales. So some of those are part of what we had announced earlier in the year in terms of expense investments that would be supporting our growth.

今年，我們的營業額持續保持強勁的兩位數成長，而我們的基礎設施在追趕銷售方面承受著一些壓力。因此，我們繼續投資技術和基礎設施來支持我們的 ISP 銷售。因此，其中一些是我們今年早些時候宣布的、將支持我們成長的費用投資的一部分。

So that's what you're seeing coming through for ISP. And that segment really deserves that build up on technology and infrastructure.

這就是您所看到的 ISP 所取得的成果。這個領域確實值得在技術和基礎設施上進行建設。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格，KBW。

I had a question on ISP sales. I know you mentioned they were still strong in July. I was hoping maybe you could give a little more color on that. The reason I ask is I think you said you'd expect them to be grow above 10% or more this year, but they were up over 20% in the first half of the year. So maybe the above 10% is what you're emphasizing. But -- so I just wanted to see if you expected any slowdown? Or should we kind of see the same momentum in the second half?

我對 ISP 銷售有疑問。我知道您提到他們在七月份仍然表現強勁。我希望您能對此做出更詳細的解釋。我之所以問這個問題，是因為我認為您說過您預計今年它們的成長率將超過 10% 或更多，但今年上半年它們的成長率已經超過 20%。所以也許上述 10% 是您所強調的。但是——所以我只是想看看您是否預計會出現任何放緩？或者我們應該在下半年看到同樣的勢頭？

Ryan, we've always asking how long can that far into the double-digit momentum continue particularly when you lap yourself annually and you start comparing to the strong second half results from last year. So we've been signaling that we do expect the comparisons to get more difficult bringing the percentage growth down but we continue to see stronger-than-anticipated growth kind of month-over-month.

瑞安，我們一直在問，這種兩位數的成長勢頭能持續多久，特別是當你每年都跑一圈並與去年下半年的強勁業績進行比較時。因此，我們一直在暗示，我們確實預計比較會變得更加困難，從而降低百分比成長率，但我們仍然看到月度環比成長強於預期。

So we did tick up the expectation now to above 10% above in the double-digit growth range when we've guided to something less than double digits last quarter. So we are seeing continued strength, the comparisons with the second half of last year do get more difficult, because this real momentum that we're experiencing today started in the second half. So we're seeing continued strength but we're expecting it to moderate on a comparison basis.

因此，我們確實將現在的預期上調至兩位數成長範圍的 10% 以上，而上個季度我們的預期是低於兩位數的成長。因此，我們看到了持續的強勁勢頭，與去年下半年的比較確實變得更加困難，因為我們今天經歷的這種真正的勢頭始於下半年。因此，我們看到了持續的強勢，但我們預計相比之下它會有所緩和。

Got it. Makes sense. And then just one quick follow-up on lapses in term life. Are they still running basically similar to what they were in the first quarter? Or have you seen any change?

知道了。有道理。然後對定期壽險的失效進行一次快速跟進。他們的表現是否與第一季基本相同？或者你看到任何變化了嗎？

Yes. In terms of lapse we continue to see, in aggregate, the elevated lapse compared to our long-term LDTI assumptions, which is pre-pandemic. But in terms of comparative to prior year, the overall trend is pretty steady. And we started to see the lapse rate stabilizing a few quarters earlier meaning that they're not elevating because during pandemic we have extraordinarily low lapse rates.

是的。就失誤率而言，我們繼續看到，總體而言，與疫情前的長期 LDTI 假設相比，失誤率有所上升。但與去年同期相比，整體趨勢還是比較平穩的。我們在幾個季度前就開始看到遞減率趨於穩定，這意味著遞減率沒有上升，因為在疫情期間，我們的遞減率非常低。

And then after pandemic, we see them run up because of the people who are committed and during the pandemic period. And that is part of the reason that, for example, duration five maybe the duration that we continue to see most of the fall off in terms of lapse and ability to persist. But we're obviously still waiting for that to run off.

疫情過後，我們看到這些數字上升，因為疫情期間人們做出了承諾。這也是為什麼，例如，在持續時間為 5 的時間段內，我們可能會繼續看到大部分失誤和持續能力的下降。但我們顯然仍在等待它的運作。

And to us, that it is going through the [snake] at some point that falls off. In aggregate, I think we're seeing a stable trend. And we do believe that our consumers over the long term, if you look at the history of our 40 years, they learned to adapt as the economic conditions evolve. So they're going to continue to value the policies, and we do believe that it's going to stabilize over time. And by the way, our ADP assumption of growth that we give the guidance on of 5% already considered this elevated lapse rate.

對我們來說，它正在穿過[蛇]，在某個點上脫落。總的來說，我認為我們看到了一個穩定的趨勢。我們確實相信，從長遠來看，如果你回顧我們 40 年的歷史，你會發現我們的消費者已經學會了隨著經濟狀況的變化而適應。因此，他們將繼續重視這些政策，我們也相信隨著時間的推移，情況將會穩定下來。順便說一句，我們給出的 ADP 成長 5% 指導假設已經考慮到了這個較高的遞減率。

Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

傑克‧馬滕 (Jack Matten)，BMO 資本市場。

Just a follow-up on the recruiting outlook in term life. I think you referenced over 50,000 recruits in July. Can you talk about the incentive center strong level in the second quarter, was pressure on recruiting more prevalent early in the quarter in April when it improved? Or was there a different trend, I guess?

這只是對定期招募前景的後續關注。我認為您提到了 7 月招募了超過 50,000 名新兵。您能談談第二季激勵中心的強勁水平嗎？四月份季度初招募壓力是否較大，而當時情況有所改善？或者我猜是存在不同的趨勢？

Some of the comparison, Jack, is because we had incentives in play in a slightly different calendar last year, which was kind of the perfect positive storm. We had the convention last year gives us an opportunity to communicate these incentives to be in -- a large portion of the sales force all at the same time rather than put it out through our normal communication channel.

傑克，之所以進行這樣的比較，是因為去年我們在略微不同的日程安排中採取了激勵措施，可以說是一場完美的積極風暴。去年的大會讓我們有機會向大部分銷售人員同時傳達這些激勵措施，而不是透過我們正常的溝通管道。

So you get a bigger response during the commission year -- during a convention year. So we decided to rerun the play that we did at the last convention. If you want to become part of Primerica and you have an insurance license, there's absolutely no cost to become part of Primerica to join. If you don't have an insurance license, we have a process to help you get one, and we do it at a very low rate.

因此，在委員會成立年，也就是大會年期間，你會得到更大的迴響。因此我們決定重演上次大會上表演的戲劇。如果您想成為 Primerica 的一部分，並且您擁有保險執照，那麼加入 Primerica 是完全免費的。如果您沒有保險執照，我們可以幫您取得，而且收費很低。

We discounted that licensing fee in July. And of course, that stimulated the communication about that opportunity from our recruiters and our team to those that recruits. We were very pleased considering all the other kind of negative economic headwinds and uncertainties we talked about earlier to know what kind of response we might get. We were very pleased to see that it was a powerful response.

我們在七月降低了許可證費用。當然，這也激發了我們的招募人員和團隊與招募人員就這一機會進行溝通。考慮到我們之前談到的所有其他負面經濟逆風和不確定性，我們很高興知道我們可能會得到什麼樣的回應。我們很高興看到這是一個強有力的回應。

Our entrepreneurial opportunity is attractive or maybe even more attractive than ever and we had good excitement about spread and using good response to it. So you've got a convention year last year, we're comparing to, you've got a little bit of different timing in the calendar. You have to kind of look through all that to really understand the results, but we were extraordinarily pleased with the response we got in July. It gave us a good start to the third quarter.

我們的創業機會很有吸引力，甚至可能比以往任何時候都更有吸引力，我們對傳播和做出良好反應感到非常興奮。因此，與去年的大會年相比，日曆上的時間安排略有不同。您必須仔細研究所有這些才能真正理解結果，但我們對 7 月收到的回應感到非常滿意。這為我們第三季帶來了良好的開端。

That's helpful. And then maybe just one on capital. The ratio moved up again, I said it to 490% this quarter. I'm curious like when or if you might gain some of that excess up to the holding company. I mean I think Primerica's having a relatively low-risk asset and liability profile. So just curious why you're kind of running what looks to be a pretty conservative RBC ratio at the moment?

這很有幫助。然後也許只討論資本。這個比例又上升了，我說這個季度是490%。我很好奇，什麼時候或是否可以將部分超額收益歸還給控股公司。我的意思是，我認為 Primerica 的資產和負債狀況風險相對較低。所以我很好奇為什麼您現在運行的 RBC 比率看起來相當保守？

Yes, Jack, our RBC ratio has a couple of things to take into consideration when you evaluate it. The first thing is that the RBC ratio oftentimes is an impact also from the statutory regulatory restrictions meaning how much it can take out has a rule by the -- defined by the state that you're domiciled in and you can only take out a certain amount based on your prior year statutory income.

是的，傑克，評估我們的 RBC 比率時需要考慮幾個因素。首先，RBC 比率通常也受到法定監管限制的影響，這意味著它可以取出多少錢有一個規則 - 由您所在的州定義，並且您只能根據前一年法定收入取出一定金額。

So we practically are taking out the maximum we can given that restriction and we do our best to estimate what that might be and take out all we can. And second part to consider is we do have an overall desire to keep a very strong RBC ratio partly because when we look at life insurance, if we have stronger growth we wanted to be able to support that growth.

因此，我們實際上是在限制條件下盡可能地提取最大數量，並儘力估計可能的數量，然後盡可能地提取所有數量。要考慮的第二部分是，我們確實總體上希望保持非常強勁的 RBC 比率，部分原因是當我們考慮人壽保險時，如果我們有更強勁的增長，我們希望能夠支持這種增長。

And when the growth occurs, there is a capital requirement need to write that policy and put up the reserve for the claims. So that is another part to consider. But over the long haul, I think we do value to have a strong rating that really helps give clients and sales force the confidence when they look at using our production -- protection product. So all of these are consideration.

當成長發生時，需要資本要求來制定該政策並為索賠提供準備金。這是需要考慮的另一部分。但從長遠來看，我認為我們確實重視擁有強大的評級，這確實有助於讓客戶和銷售人員在使用我們的生產保護產品時充滿信心。所以所有這些都是考慮因素。

Now that being said, we are looking at all the options and alternatives on the best long-term strategy, capital deployment. And certainly, in consideration of supporting the holdco for buybacks, for dividends and all the support of the growth and we're going to evaluate all the options to keep that ratio in reasonable range in terms of supporting growth and as well as being able to take it out when we can to do all the things we need to do for our stockholders and growth.

話雖如此，我們正在研究最佳長期策略和資本配置的所有選擇和替代方案。當然，考慮到支持控股公司進行回購、分紅和所有對增長的支持，我們將評估所有選項，以將該比率保持在合理範圍內，以支持增長，並能夠在我們可以的時候將其取出，為我們的股東和增長做所有我們需要做的事情。

Dan Bergman, TD Securities.

丹‧伯格曼，道明證券。

Just digging into your ISP sales a little more this quarter, there's really strong continued growth in variable annuities and managed accounts, but a little closer to flattish in US mutual funds, there's still a really strong nominal level of sales there. But I was just hoping you could talk a little more about the dynamics in these different product areas? And do you view the mix shift this quarter as a one-off given the high equity market volatility in the US or part of an ongoing trend given the shift towards more retirement savings?

只要深入研究本季的 ISP 銷售情況，就會發現變額年金和管理帳戶的銷售額確實持續強勁增長，但美國共同基金的銷售額則略微持平，名義銷售額水平仍然非常強勁。但我只是希望您能多談談這些不同產品領域的動態？鑑於美國股市波動性較大，您是否認為本季的組合轉變是一次性現象，還是因為轉向增加退休儲蓄而成為持續趨勢的一部分？

I think it's some of both, Dan. I think we do have a longer-term kind of demographic tailwind as I mentioned in my script, from just kind of our aging society people moving toward retirement, which would be positive for retirement products like variable annuities. I do think the uncertainty that we talked about that probably impacts everyone to a certain extent.

我認為兩者都有，丹。我認為我們確實有一個長期的人口順風，正如我在腳本中提到的那樣，從老齡化社會開始，人們開始走向退休，這對變額年金等退休產品有利。我確實認為我們討論的不確定性可能會在一定程度上影響每個人。

Our view is for investors, they look for guarantees in uncertain times or volatile times. And while I think there's confidence in the overall direction of the market if you look at the history this year, it's been tremendously volatile. And so that's where the variable annuity guarantees, the guaranteed income options or the upside market protection of the index-linked variable annuities have real appeal to consumers.

我們的觀點是，對於投資者來說，他們在不確定或動盪的時期尋求擔保。儘管我認為，如果回顧今年的歷史，人們對市場的整體走向是有信心的，但市場波動非常大。這就是變額年金保證、保證收入選擇或指數掛鉤變額年金的上行市場保護對消費者真正具有吸引力的地方。

And I do think that the product providers have played into that and have continued to improve their products and make them appropriately more attractive to that marketplace. So my guess is, and again, I'm into a crystal ball, so it's just entirely opinion. Is that as people move towards retirement and want security, there's likely the potential for a long-term trend here.

我確實認為產品供應商已經發揮了作用，並不斷改進他們的產品，使其對市場更具吸引力。所以我的猜測是，再說一次，我是水晶球迷，所以這完全只是我的觀點。隨著人們走向退休並希望獲得安全感，這很可能會形成一種長期趨勢。

Our other products continue to grow and continue to serve a fantastic purpose. Our managed account business that you mentioned is a newer business, and you would expect it to be faster growing coming off a smaller base than it is. And it's something that our sales force, more people are getting licensed and getting more experienced with that.

我們的其他產品不斷發展，並繼續發揮重要作用。您提到的託管帳戶業務是一項較新的業務，您可以預期它在較小的基礎上實現更快的成長。我們的銷售人員越來越多地獲得許可並積累了更多經驗。

And so we would expect that to grow faster than an established business, but our mutual fund business is the largest of all those businesses and it still performs an important, important function, particularly as we see those middle-income families moving through their periods of life. Many times, they start in mutual funds because the minimums are smaller, they're simpler products.

因此，我們預計其成長速度會比成熟業務更快，但我們的共同基金業務是所有業務中最大的，並且仍然發揮著重要作用，特別是當我們看到那些中等收入家庭正經歷人生的各個階段時。很多時候，他們從共同基金開始，因為最低限額較小，而且產品更簡單。

They can understand they're appropriate because they're simpler and then later they move into more sophisticated products. So our product set works together very, very well. We do see the mix shift according to economic conditions, but it's very much what we would expect from this product sale.

他們可以理解這些產品是合適的，因為它們更簡單，然後他們就會轉向更複雜的產品。因此，我們的產品組合配合得非常好。我們確實看到產品組合根據經濟狀況而變化，但這完全符合我們對該產品銷售的預期。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then I think the mortgage volume showed some nice growth this quarter. I think it was the highest it's been in a while. Just any more color on the trends here and the outlook for growth? And just maybe big picture thoughts on how much room is there for continued incremental growth if interest and mortgage rates remain elevated.

知道了。這非常有幫助。我認為本季抵押貸款金額出現了良好的成長。我認為這是一段時間以來的最高水平。您還能進一步了解這裡的趨勢和成長前景嗎？也許只是從宏觀角度考慮，如果利率和抵押貸款利率保持高位，那麼還有多少空間可以實現持續的增量成長。

We're very excited about the potential for our mortgage business. Canada has had some rate reductions and that gave some early momentum to the referral program there. I think we're still waiting on rate reductions in the US. But back in times when rates were lower as this program came off the ground, it got a very fast start in the 2019 to 2021.

我們對抵押貸款業務的潛力感到非常興奮。加拿大已經降低了一些費率，這為那裡的轉介計劃提供了一些早期動力。我認為我們仍在等待美國降低利率。但在該計劃實施時利率較低的時候，它在 2019 年至 2021 年期間的起步非常快。

And then we kind of stalled out and we've treated a little bit, but now we're regaining that momentum. I think there's tremendous potential if we do get some rate reductions. A lot of our advice around mortgages is around reducing debt and reducing your weighted average interest rate as a family. As interest rates come down, there are opportunities for refinancing, pulling in high interest rate credit card debt, all of that comes on the table with falling interest rates.

然後我們有點停滯不前，我們進行了一些治療，但現在我們正在恢復勢頭。我認為，如果我們確實降低利率，就會有巨大的潛力。我們對抵押貸款的許多建議都與減少債務和降低家庭加權平均利率有關。隨著利率下降，出現了再融資的機會，吸收了高利率的信用卡債務，所有這些都隨著利率下降而出現。

So we're optimistic about potential for the program and could be a real player in the future for our company. Already, as we stated in the prepared remarks, important for clients and families and for our sales force, but there's upside for Primerica as well in the future.

因此，我們對該計劃的潛力持樂觀態度，並可能在未來成為我們公司的真正參與者。正如我們在準備好的演講中所述，這對客戶、家庭和我們的銷售人員來說已經很重要，但對 Primerica 來說，未來也有好處。

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

威爾瑪伯迪斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Could you talk about a little bit more specifically about what drove the good expense results in 2Q. I realize that you guys reiterated the full year guide, but is there any sustainable element to the lower expenses in the quarter? Or is it more of a timing related to the ISP tech investments?

您能否更具體地談談是什麼推動了第二季度良好的支出結果？我知道你們重申了全年指南，但本季費用降低是否有可持續的因素？或者這與 ISP 技術投資相關的時機有關？

The expenses in second quarter was certainly an aspect of timing and some of it also has to do with our investment in technology. So the combination of those, the projects obviously are long-term projects, many of those. So the timing of the start and when they get ramped up, could be more likely towards the third and fourth quarter at this point.

第二季的支出當然是時間因素，其中一部分也與我們對科技的投資有關。因此，這些項目結合起來，顯然很多都是長期項目。因此，目前開始和加速的時間更有可能是在第三季和第四季。

And we obviously also are experiencing variable growth-related expense that is associated with how top line is going. And as ISP, for example, continue to be strong and you see some of the expenses coming through that segment a little bit stronger. Now in terms of full year guidance, I think we remain in the 6% to 8% range and just depends on how accelerated some of those technology and investments can be so that there could be some timing variable depends on those as well.

顯然，我們也正在經歷與營業收入成長相關的可變成長相關費用。例如，隨著 ISP 繼續保持強勁勢頭，您會看到該領域的部分支出增加。現在就全年指引而言，我認為我們仍將保持在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內，這只取決於其中一些技術和投資的加速程度，因此也可能存在一些時間變數取決於這些。

And then can you talk a little bit more about your efforts to grow the ISP sales force and also to increase the diversity of sales to selling both term life and ISP across the sales force?

然後，您能否再多談一下您為擴大 ISP 銷售隊伍所做的努力，以及為提高銷售隊伍的銷售多樣性，使其能夠同時銷售定期壽險和 ISP 而做出的努力？

Sure, Wilma. We feel it's very important to continue to grow that sales force size as well. It's not as directly related to production as it is on the term life side. There's a very close relationship in most circumstances between our life and sales force size and life production. But on the security side, there are so many more factors involved, like confidence in the market like we're seeing today appeal of product set, mix shift, all the things that we talked about earlier.

當然，威爾瑪。我們認為繼續擴大銷售隊伍規模也非常重要。它與生產的關係並不像與生活面那麼直接。在大多數情況下，我們的生活與銷售團隊規模和生活產量之間有著非常密切的關係。但在安全方面，涉及的因素還有很多，例如市場信心，就像我們今天看到的產品組合的吸引力、組合轉變，以及我們之前討論過的所有事情。

But we still believe having a growing base of the sales force is critical. The process is more difficult for getting securities licensed individuals even if they're going to be with a limited securities license as opposed to the full stock and bottom line at Series 7, We generally use the Series 6 and 63 and that has proven to be more difficult and grow more difficult over time.

但我們仍然相信，不斷成長的銷售團隊至關重要。對於個人來說，獲得證券執照的過程更加困難，即使他們持有有限的證券執照，而不是 7 系列的完整股票和底線，我們通常使用 6 系列和 63 系列，事實證明這更加困難，並且隨著時間的推移會變得更加困難。

So that has provided somewhat of a hurdle in that growth rate. However, we're pleased to -- we're beginning to see some traction. We had very good experience so far this year and seeing some traction and growth in our security sales force as well as the mortgage sales force that we discussed just a minute ago. So those other licenses are beginning to come through and we're going to continue to feed that process and improvement.

所以這在某種程度上阻礙了成長率。然而，我們很高興——我們開始看到一些進展。今年到目前為止，我們的經驗非常好，我們的證券銷售團隊以及我們剛才討論的抵押貸款銷售團隊都取得了一些進展和成長。因此，其他許可證也開始陸續發放，我們將繼續推動這項進程並不斷改進。

We have a lot of efforts going on among our team here and working with field leaders to try to make sure that we provide all the resources to kind of navigate through the difficulties of that licensing process. So we generally talk about the sales force just once a year and give a stat on it, but we are seeing growth in it this year, And we're pleased that some of our efforts are beginning to show results, but it does grow generally more slowly than our life sales force.

我們團隊正在付出很多努力，並與現場領導合作，努力確保提供所有資源來解決許可過程中的困難。因此，我們通常每年只談論一次銷售團隊並給出統計數據，但今年我們看到了銷售隊伍的成長，我們很高興看到我們的一些努力開始取得成果，但總體而言，銷售隊伍的成長速度比我們的終身銷售隊伍要慢。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

The ISP momentum continuing in July, are you seeing a little more mutual fund activity with the market having bounced back? I think you said the April was very poor. Sentiment was soft in your last call. Is that picking up some steam?

ISP 勢頭在 7 月持續，隨著市場反彈，您是否看到共同基金活動增加？我認為您說過四月份的情況非常糟糕。您上次打電話時情緒很低落。這是否正在引起一些關注？

The mix shift, Mark, it usually is not quite that real-time responsive. I mean if we have a month or two or a quarter of positive returns, it's not like suddenly people go. Oh, I don't need those guarantees anymore. Let's move back over here into the lower guarantee or no guarantee business. It happens over longer-term trends and longer-term sentiment.

混合轉變，馬克，通常不是那麼即時響應。我的意思是，如果我們有一兩個月或一個季度的正回報，人們不會突然離開。哦，我不再需要那些保證了。讓我們回到較低擔保或無擔保業務。它發生在長期趨勢和長期情緒中。

So I don't have the data in front of me on the mix exactly for the month of July. But my tells me that it's similar to what we've seen in the past. And if it does change, it will change slightly over time rather than take a hard turn. So I don't think you've got much difference in mix shift probably just for the single month.

因此，我手頭上沒有七月的具體數據。但我告訴我，這與我們過去所見的很相似。即使確實發生變化，也會隨著時間的推移而發生輕微變化，而不是發生劇烈轉變。因此，我認為混合轉變不會有太大差異，可能只是在一個月內。

Understood. When you think about the term life sales, How do you think you stack up relative to the industry? Some of the industry data seems to be -- it hasn't been great, but it's been a little more stable than your results. I wonder whether you think that's not reflective of your particular end market or I'm just sort of curious how you see your experience versus the industry?

明白了。當您考慮人壽銷售時，您認為自己相對於該行業而言處於什麼水平？一些行業數據似乎——不是很好，但比你的結果穩定一些。我想知道您是否認為這不能反映您的特定終端市場，或者我只是好奇您如何看待您的經驗與產業？

Yes, that's a great question, Mark. I was looking earlier this morning at numbers that were released this morning on application activity in the industry. And what we're seeing is a lot of the industry positive is at the upper end of the age spectrum, 60 and above even 70 and above an extraordinarily large face amount. The growth in the under 30 year-to-date was just barely 0.3% under 30 and 1.2% between ages 30 and 50, which that pretty much covers the vast majority of all the sales that we do since our philosophy is that term insurance is a temporary need while you're in income-earning mode.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，馬克。今天早上，我正在查看今天早上發布的有關該行業申請活動的數據。我們看到，該行業的許多積極因素都處於年齡層的高端，60 歲以上，甚至 70 歲以上，這是一個非常大的面值。今年迄今為止，30 歲以下人群的增長率僅為 0.3%，30 歲至 50 歲之間的增長率為 1.2%，這幾乎涵蓋了我們所有銷售額的絕大部分，因為我們的理念是定期保險是您處於收入模式時的臨時需求。

So we're not that far off the industry. I think the whole industry is struggling with the exception of those selling to older ages and larger face amounts for estate planning purposes. We may be a little behind the industry this year just slightly. But I think we're way ahead of the industry last year. So it goes back to those difficult comparisons.

所以我們距離產業並不遙遠。我認為整個行業都在苦苦掙扎，除了那些向老年人和出於遺產規劃目的而出售較大面值的債券的人。今年我們可能稍微落後於產業。但我認為我們去年已經遠遠領先整個產業。所以這又回到了那些困難的比較。

But I think we're experiencing a lot of the same things that our peers are. And as Tracy pointed out, we do believe the resiliency of the middle-income market always amazes me. They do adapt over time and what's uncertain today, the same conditions will be considered certain after you live through them for a few months.

但我認為我們和我們的同齡人經歷著很多相同的事情。正如特蕾西指出的那樣，我們確實相信中等收入市場的彈性總是令我感到驚訝。它們確實會隨著時間的推移而適應，今天不確定的事情，在經歷了幾個月之後，同樣的情況就會被認為是確定的。

And so we think it's a temporary issue that will correct itself over time. Perhaps even turn into positive, cost of living, discussion at some point in the future. But certainly not for the immediate future. So I think we're traveling pretty much in the pack for our age group, Mark, maybe a little behind this year because we were hit last year and we believe it's something that will correct itself over time.

因此我們認為這只是暫時的問題，隨著時間的推移會自行解決。也許在未來的某個時候甚至會變成積極的生活成本討論。但肯定不是在近期內。所以我認為，在我們的年齡組中，我們的旅行情況相當不錯，馬克，今年可能有點落後，因為我們去年受到了打擊，但我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會自行糾正。

Jeff Schmitt, William Blair.

傑夫施密特、威廉布萊爾。

Glenn, just curious how you're thinking about productivity here with it at the low end of the historical range. Do you think it could move below that? And what do we need to see for that to really turn around?

格倫，我只是好奇你如何看待處於歷史低端的生產力。您認為它有可能跌破這個水平嗎？那麼我們需要看到什麼才能真正扭轉這個局面呢？

I think productivity is just the math on the headwinds we talked about. You've got a couple of dynamics. It's a pretty simple calculation actually. So as we grow the sales force, the denominator becomes larger. It makes it more difficult to stay in the range just by the sheer number. But you've also got new people entering the sales force and entering today at a time when those headwinds we've discussed are probably a little more significant than they were a year ago or maybe even two years ago.

我認為生產力只是我們所討論的逆風的數學。你有幾個動態。事實上這是一個非常簡單的計算。因此，隨著銷售團隊的壯大，分母也會變得更大。僅憑數量就很難保持在這個範圍內。但是，也有新人加入銷售隊伍，而今天我們所討論的不利因素可能比一年前甚至兩年前更為嚴重。

So you've got a couple of mathematical dynamics working there. It is possible we could peak out the bottom of the range for a period of time due to that math. It wouldn't surprise me or concern me just based on those things. But we do know that over time, we tend to move back to the middle. And so as we address issues of confidence in this kind of environment for salespeople, maybe we get a little, if not relief from cost of living, at least we accommodate the cost of living in the middle market.

因此，您已經掌握了一些數學動力學知識。根據這個數學計算，我們有可能在一段時間內達到範圍的底部。僅基於這些事情，我不會感到驚訝或擔心。但我們確實知道，隨著時間的推移，我們傾向於回到中間。因此，當我們解決在這種環境下銷售人員的信心問題時，也許我們會得到一點好處，即使不能減輕生活成本，至少我們可以適應中階市場的生活成本。

We tend to move back to the middle of the range over time. So I think you won't continue to see pressure on that ratio for the rest of this year. But over the long haul, we'd expect it to get back more toward the middle.

隨著時間的推移，我們往往會回到範圍的中間。因此我認為今年剩餘時間內不會繼續看到該比率的壓力。但從長遠來看，我們預計它會回到中間水平。

Okay. And does that suggest, I guess, that the surge in the sales force last year you may have brought on some sort of less committed or just lower productivity sales agents and maybe that kind of corrects itself over the next year or two?

好的。我想，這是否意味著，去年銷售隊伍的激增可能會導致一些不太投入或生產力較低的銷售代理，而這種情況可能會在未來一兩年內得到糾正？

That's possible, Jeff, -- but I got to tell you that our sales force is so large, and we've been doing this for so long. And we go for excellent quality individuals. I'm so proud of our sales force and the quality of what they do. I think it's the more difficult sales environment, not the commitment or ability of the salespeople that we're seeing today. And so I think that's possible, but I don't think that's probable.

這是有可能的，傑夫，——但我必須告訴你，我們的銷售隊伍非常龐大，而且我們已經這樣做了很長時間。我們追求的是優秀品質的人才。我對我們的銷售隊伍和他們的工作品質感到非常自豪。我認為這是一個更加困難的銷售環境，而不是我們今天看到的銷售人員的承諾或能力。所以我認為這是可能的，但我認為這不太可能。

I think it's the environment. We've got people entering the business in a tougher sales environment now than we did in the past. And I think that environment will change over time. And their skill set will grow just like the middle market will adapt to living in a high cost of living environment, sales people adapt to selling in a high-cost environment get better at. So I don't think it's quality or commitment.

我認為是環境。與過去相比，我們現在進入這個行業的銷售環境更加艱難。我認為環境會隨著時間而改變。他們的技能也會不斷成長，就像中階市場會適應高生活成本的環境一樣，銷售人員也會適應高成本環境中的銷售並變得更好。所以我不認為這是品質或承諾的問題。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特‧卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑富瑞集團。

So I had a question on annuity sales. If I just think back to historically, they've been about 1/4 of ISP sales roughly. And just over the past few quarters, we're now about 1/3. If we stay at that mix, does that impact the P&L at all? Does it cause it to change relative to maybe what we're used to seeing? Just wondering if that's going to be something that we should focus on?

所以我對年金銷售有一個疑問。如果我回顧一下歷史，它們大約佔 ISP 銷售額的 1/4。僅在過去幾個季度，我們就達到了約 1/3。如果我們保持這種組合，這會對損益產生影響嗎？這是否會導致它相對於我們過去所見的改變？只是想知道這是否是我們應該關注的事情？

I think than we view profitability of products as being very similar. It's a timing of where we're compensated on products. Variable annuities tend to have more upfront at the point-of-sale compensation and a little less compensation based on assets. But the profitability of the product is pretty close to some of the others, most of the others.

我認為我們對產品獲利能力的看法非常相似。這是我們獲得產品補償的時間。可變年金往往在銷售點有較多的預付補償，而基於資產的補償則較少。但該產品的獲利能力與其他一些產品、大多數產品相當接近。

So I think you see it as we've seen this quarter, when the mix shifts toward variable annuities, you see sales-based commissions outstripping the total. And then if the product mix shifts back, it kind of corrects itself as well. So we have never tried to manage product mix and say, Oh my gosh, too much of it is going toward product, that's a little less profitable because the profitability over time is so close.

因此，我認為正如我們本季所看到的那樣，當組合轉向可變年金時，您會看到基於銷售的佣金超過了總額。然後，如果產品組合轉變回來，它也會自我修正。因此，我們從未嘗試管理產品組合併說，天哪，太多的產品都用於產品，這會降低利潤，因為隨著時間的推移，獲利能力非常接近。

So I think the shift that we're seeing again is happening because of the conditions and because of the excellent response to the current economic and market conditions, of our product providers that are stepping up and providing features of products that meet the needs of consumers. So they're becoming very attractive.

所以我認為，我們再次看到的轉變是因為條件以及對當前經濟和市場狀況的出色反應，我們的產品供應商正在加緊提供滿足消費者需求的產品功能。因此它們變得非常有吸引力。

But that's kind of the front-end view. I'll go to Tracy and see if you think P&L was impacted by mix shift toward variable annuities in any way to help to Suneet with that.

但這只是前端視圖。我會去找 Tracy，看看您是否認為損益表受到了混合轉向可變年金的影響，以幫助 Suneet 解決這個問題。

Yes, I agree with Glenn. I think it's more of a timing and most of the products in the long run, it kind of evens itself out.

是的，我同意格倫的觀點。我認為這更多的是一個時機問題，從長遠來看，大多數產品都會自行平衡。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I guess sticking with variable annuities. Glenn, as a distributor, I think you have a good sense of product design. And we're starting to hear a little bit from some of the carriers about some aggressive features, particularly in the RILA market. Just wondering what you're seeing, if you're seeing any of that. And when you think about your product providers, you tend to stick with the same sort of handful of carriers? Or do you sort of swap in and out kind of overtime?

好的。這很有道理。然後我想堅持使用變額年金。格倫，作為一名經銷商，我認為你對產品設計有很好的意識。我們開始從一些業者那裡聽到一些關於一些激進功能的消息，特別是在 RILA 市場。只是想知道您看到了什麼，如果您看到了其中任何內容。當您考慮產品供應商時，您是否傾向於堅持使用同一類型的少數幾家營運商？或者你們會以某種方式輪流加班嗎？

Yes. Let me take those questions in reverse order because I think your second question helps answer your first question. We absolutely stick with a narrow shell of very high-quality product providers that we have a long-term relationship with which is important for our business relationship with them, but it's also important so they understand our philosophy around these products.

是的。讓我以相反的順序來回答這些問題，因為我認為你的第二個問題有助於回答你的第一個問題。我們絕對堅持與與我們有著長期合作關係的高品質產品供應商合作，這對我們與他們的業務關係很重要，但讓他們了解我們對這些產品的理念也很重要。

The annuity business, during my 40-plus career being here has been prone to excess at various times. And so we're always on alert watching for companies that are going a little bit beyond the payroll and what they're offering and the type of risk that they're putting on the client. We've always stayed away from that. I mean we were very careful entering the variable annuity business.

在我 40 多年的職業生涯中，年金業務曾多次出現過度經營的情況。因此，我們始終保持警惕，關注那些超出工資範圍的公司，他們提供的服務以及他們為客戶帶來的風險類型。我們一直都遠離這種事。我的意思是，我們在進入變額年金業務時非常謹慎。

We've been more careful entering the indexed annuity business because years ago before the financial crisis is probably full of excess. But those prices tend to work those excesses out and then they come back with better products. But fortunately, the high-quality partners we have don't follow that path. They take a long-term view.

我們在進入指數年金業務時更加謹慎，因為幾年前金融危機之前，該業務可能已經過剩。但這些價格往往會抵消這些過剩的因素，然後他們會推出更好的產品。但幸運的是，我們的優質合作夥伴不會走這條路。他們著眼於長遠。

They want to make sure they have a lifetime relationship with clients, just like we do. And so they tend not to get over into the red zones that some of the other product providers that we don't represent. That said, we do have a committee, a team that analyzes products, determines if they're suitable for our clientele before we put them on our product shelf, even among our high-quality providers.

他們希望確保與客戶建立終生的關係，就像我們一樣。因此，他們往往不會進入一些我們不代表的其他產品提供者的紅色區域。話雖如此，我們確實有一個委員會，一個團隊負責分析產品，確定它們是否適合我們的客戶，然後我們才能將它們放到我們的產品貨架上，即使是我們的高品質供應商也是如此。

So yes, there is the tendency to need for companies to do that. We're on guard against that all times and I don't see us bearing any risk at that point of getting over into inappropriate products that some others mind.

所以是的，公司確實有這樣做的傾向。我們時時警惕這種情況，我認為我們不會冒任何風險，不會購買其他人不介意的不合適的產品。

And that was our last question for today. So with that, we will conclude today's call. All parties may now disconnect, and have a great day.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。今天的電話會議就此結束。各方現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。